(UPST) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Upstart Q2 FY 2021 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, for opening remarks, I'd like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們，先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 Upstart 2021 財年第二季度財報電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。在這個時候，作為開場白，我想把會議交給 Jason Schmidt。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Upstart's second quarter 2021 financial results. With us on today's call are Dave Girouard, Upstart's Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer.

下午好，感謝您參加今天的電話會議，討論 Upstart 的 2021 年第二季度財務業績。 Upstart 的首席執行官 Dave Girouard 與我們一起參加今天的電話會議；和我們的首席財務官 Sanjay Datta。

Before we begin, I wanted to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2021 financial results and published an investor relations presentation. Both are available on our Investor Relations website ir.upstart.com.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您，在今天市場收盤後不久，Upstart 發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了其 2021 年第二季度的財務業績，並發布了一份投資者關係報告。兩者都可以在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.upstart.com 上找到。

During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter and full year 2021 related to our business. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today, and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law.

在電話會議期間，我們將做出前瞻性陳述，例如與我們的業務相關的第三季度和 2021 年全年的指導。這些陳述基於我們目前的預期和截至今天可用的信息，並受到各種風險、不確定性和假設的影響。由於我們在提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中描述的各種風險因素，實際結果可能存在重大差異。因此，我們告誡您不要過分依賴這些前瞻性陳述。我們不承擔因新信息或未來事件而更新任何前瞻性陳述的義務，除非法律要求。

In addition, during today's call, unless otherwise provided, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. (Operator Instructions)

此外，在今天的電話會議中，除非另有說明，否則對我們結果的引用作為非公認會計原則財務指標提供，並與我們的公認會計原則結果相一致，可在收益發布和補充表格中找到。 （操作員說明）

Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on September 9, the JMP AI Fintech Conference on September 10 and the Piper Sandler Global Technology Conference on September 13. Now I'd like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

本季度晚些時候，Upstart 將參加 9 月 9 日的德意志銀行技術會議、9 月 10 日的 JMP AI 金融科技會議和 9 月 13 日的 Piper Sandler 全球技術會議。現在我想把它交給 Dave Girouard，新貴的CEO。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our quarterly earnings call covering our second quarter 2021 results. I'm Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart. First, let me once again thank the entire Upstart team for yet another exceptional quarter. The results we announced today don't just happen. They are the product of extraordinary effort by an incredible team. Despite the ongoing challenges the pandemic has brought to you and your families, you continue to deliver. The last 1.5 years have been a challenge for my family as well, and I'm grateful to be on this journey with each of you.

大家下午好。感謝您參加我們關於 2021 年第二季度業績的季度收益電話會議。我是 Upstart 的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 Dave Girouard。首先，讓我再次感謝整個 Upstart 團隊的又一個特殊季度。我們今天宣布的結果不僅會發生。它們是一個令人難以置信的團隊非凡努力的產物。儘管大流行給您和您的家人帶來了持續的挑戰，但您仍在繼續努力。過去的 1.5 年對我的家人來說也是一個挑戰，我很高興能和你們每個人一起踏上這段旅程。

Upstart is a leading AI lending platform, and our second quarter results continue to demonstrate why this category can generate enormous value in our economy. They also demonstrate why Upstart has an opportunity to become one of the world's largest and most impactful fintechs in the years to come.

Upstart 是領先的人工智能藉貸平台，我們第二季度的業績繼續證明了為什麼這個類別可以在我們的經濟中產生巨大的價值。他們還展示了為什麼 Upstart 有機會在未來幾年成為世界上最大和最具影響力的金融科技公司之一。

Lending is the center beam of revenue and profits in financial services, and artificial intelligence may be the most transformational change to come to this industry in its 5,000-year history. It's our view that AI-led disruption targeting dramatic inefficiency in one of the largest segments of our economy is worthy of your attention.

貸款是金融服務收入和利潤的核心，人工智能可能是該行業 5000 年曆史上最具變革性的變革。我們認為，以人工智能為主導的顛覆是針對我們經濟中最大的部門之一的效率極低的問題，值得您關注。

Our Q2 revenues grew to $194 million, up 60% compared to the prior quarter. June was our first month with more than 100,000 loans and more than $1 billion in origination volume on our platform. And we achieved this growth while also delivering record profits with adjusted EBITDA of $59.5 million and GAAP net income of $37.3 million.

我們第二季度的收入增長到 1.94 億美元，與上一季度相比增長了 60%。六月是我們的第一個月，我們平台上的貸款超過 100,000 筆，發起量超過 10 億美元。我們實現了這一增長，同時實現了創紀錄的利潤，調整後的 EBITDA 為 5950 萬美元，GAAP 淨收入為 3730 萬美元。

We're also happy to report that more than 97% of our revenue came in the form of fees from banks or loan servicing with 0 credit exposure or demands on our balance sheet.

我們也很高興地報告，我們超過 97% 的收入來自銀行費用或貸款服務，信用風險或資產負債表上的需求為 0。

In the second quarter, we continued to drive separation between our AI-powered platform and more conventional lending systems. We eliminated a rules-based constraint in our model that handled situations related to the size of loan requested. With more powerful algorithms and growth in training data, our models can now handle that issue natively and with more precision. This led to a boost in approval rates and a more accurate system overall.

在第二季度，我們繼續推動我們的人工智能平台與更傳統的貸款系統之間的分離。我們在模型中消除了一個基於規則的約束，該約束處理與請求貸款規模相關的情況。隨著更強大的算法和訓練數據的增長，我們的模型現在可以更準確地本地處理該問題。這導致了批准率的提高和整個系統的更準確。

We also recalibrated our acquisition models to harmonize them with the funnel improvements we experienced earlier in the year. In other words, our models for digital and off-line acquisition caught up to the most recent funnel wins that drove our earlier growth and began to target applicants they would have previously ignored or misprioritized. They were also recalibrated to broader bank partner eligibility criteria, enabling us to market to more consumers.

我們還重新校準了我們的收購模型，以使其與我們在今年早些時候經歷的漏斗改進相協調。換句話說，我們的數字和線下收購模型趕上了最近的漏斗勝利，這些勝利推動了我們早期的增長，並開始瞄准他們以前忽略或錯誤優先考慮的申請人。它們還根據更廣泛的銀行合作夥伴資格標准進行了重新校準，使我們能夠向更多消費者推銷。

In the second quarter, we also experienced a reduction in cost of funding across the platform, which means better rates for consumers and more loans. This cost of funding improvement was a result of more and better bank offers on our platform as well as a reduction in the yield required by the broader capital markets as our platform continues to demonstrate its unique strengths. And finally, we continue to ramp up marketing to our prior borrowers who qualify for repeat loans on the Upstart platform, and this contributed meaningfully to our growth. In fact, the number of repeat loans on our platform more than doubled from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2021.

在第二季度，我們還經歷了整個平台的融資成本降低，這意味著消費者的利率更高，貸款更多。這種融資成本的改善是由於我們平台上提供更多更好的銀行報價，以及隨著我們的平台繼續展示其獨特優勢，更廣泛的資本市場所需的收益率降低。最後，我們繼續向有資格在 Upstart 平台上獲得重複貸款的先前借款人加大營銷力度，這對我們的增長做出了有意義的貢獻。事實上，從 2021 年第一季度到第二季度，我們平台上的重複貸款數量增加了一倍多。

We also experienced an important but more nuanced win in Q2. For the first time, one of our bank partners decided to eliminate any minimum FICO requirement for their borrowers. To us, this demonstrates both a commitment on behalf of this bank to a more inclusive lending program as well as an increasing confidence in Upstart's AI-powered model. While credit scores can be useful, hard cutoffs based on a 3-digit number invented 30 years ago leaves far too many creditworthy Americans out in the cold. We're hopeful a second bank partner will make a similar decision in the near future.

我們在第二季度也經歷了一場重要但更微妙的勝利。我們的一個銀行合作夥伴第一次決定取消對其借款人的任何最低 FICO 要求。對我們來說，這既表明了代表這家銀行對更具包容性的貸款計劃的承諾，也表明了人們對 Upstart 的人工智能驅動模型越來越有信心。雖然信用評分可能很有用，但基於 30 年前發明的 3 位數字的硬截斷讓太多有信譽的美國人被冷落了。我們希望第二家銀行合作夥伴能在不久的將來做出類似的決定。

I'm pleased to announce that we finally began to roll out Upstart for Spanish speakers, a first of its kind among digital lending platforms in the U.S. This initiative took longer than I would have liked. As it turns out, expanding from 1 language to 2, in a heavily regulated industry, isn't as easy as we expected, particularly because our platform is itself a fast-moving target. But it's these types of efforts making Upstart more accessible to Spanish speakers and reducing hard cutoffs based on FICO scores that will make Upstart a more inclusive and impactful platform for those that need it the most.

我很高興地宣布，我們終於開始為講西班牙語的人推出 Upstart，這是美國數字借貸平台中的首創。這項計劃花費的時間比我想像的要長。事實證明，在一個受到嚴格監管的行業中，從 1 種語言擴展到 2 種語言並不像我們預期的那麼容易，特別是因為我們的平臺本身就是一個快速發展的目標。但正是這些類型的努力使講西班牙語的人更容易接觸到 Upstart，並減少了基於 FICO 分數的硬分界線，這將使 Upstart 成為對那些最需要它的人來說更具包容性和影響力的平台。

The growth of our platform and the performance of Upstart-powered loans continues to attract more lenders to Upstart. We now have 25 banks and credit unions on the Upstart platform and have a robust and growing list of lenders in our pipeline for the second half of 2021. The launch of new bank partners as well as expansion of lending programs from existing bank partners improves the quality of offers we can make to consumers on upstart.com.

我們平台的發展和 Upstart 貸款的表現繼續吸引更多的貸方加入 Upstart。現在，我們在 Upstart 平台上擁有 25 家銀行和信用合作社，並且在 2021 年下半年我們的渠道中的貸方名單強勁且不斷增長。新銀行合作夥伴的推出以及現有銀行合作夥伴的貸款計劃的擴展改善了我們可以在 upstart.com 上向消費者提供的優惠質量。

Another important service we provide to banks and to loan buyers is access to liquidity through the capital markets. We do this by managing regular securitizations of loans originated on our platform, where multiple banks and loan buyers contribute to a single shelf under the UPST brand. Our most recent securitization included more than $0.5 billion in collateral originated by 3 different bank partners, which saw a net execution of about 107. This extraordinary result can be attributed to strength in the credit markets as well as broad recognition of Upstart's AI-enabled collateral. We now have more than 150 institutions who buy Upstart-powered loans or bonds.

我們為銀行和貸款購買者提供的另一項重要服務是通過資本市場獲得流動性。我們通過管理源自我們平台的定期貸款證券化來做到這一點，多個銀行和貸款購買者在 UPST 品牌下為一個貨架做出貢獻。我們最近的證券化包括由 3 家不同銀行合作夥伴發起的超過 5 億美元的抵押品，淨執行約 107 筆。這一非凡的結果可歸因於信貸市場的實力以及對 Upstart 支持人工智能的抵押品的廣泛認可.我們現在有超過 150 家機構購買由 Upstart 提供的貸款或債券。

While our partners don't generally rely on securitizations for liquidity, we believe the presence of a well-established market for Upstart-powered collateral creates value for our partners and confidence in our platform.

雖然我們的合作夥伴通常不依賴證券化來獲得流動性，但我們相信，以 Upstart 為動力的抵押品的成熟市場的存在為我們的合作夥伴創造了價值和對我們平台的信心。

We have said in the past that auto lending is Upstart's next great opportunity. It's a market at least 6x larger than personal loans and at least as inefficient. We're making rapid progress toward this opportunity in several dimensions.

我們過去曾說過，汽車貸款是 Upstart 的下一個絕佳機會。這是一個至少比個人貸款大 6 倍且效率低下的市場。我們在幾個方面都在朝著這個機會快速發展。

We started in January, offering our auto refinance product in a single state, then expanded to 14 states by the end of Q1 and have now expanded to 47 states, covering more than 95% of the U.S. population. We've also improved our funnel conversion rate about 100% since the beginning of the year despite expanding from states with minimal funnel friction to those with the most.

我們從 1 月份開始，在一個州提供汽車再融資產品，然後到第一季度末擴展到 14 個州，現在已經擴展到 47 個州，覆蓋了超過 95% 的美國人口。儘管從漏斗摩擦最小的州擴展到漏斗摩擦最大的州，但自今年年初以來，我們還將漏斗轉化率提高了約 100%。

This is critical because funnel efficiency is the primary way we'll scale up auto loan originations, just as we've done historically with personal loans. Upstart-powered banks have now originated more than 2,000 auto refinance loans in 40 different states. And these loans are beginning to provide the repayment data that is the fuel to our AI models.

這很關鍵，因為漏斗效率是我們擴大汽車貸款發放的主要方式，就像我們過去對個人貸款所做的那樣。新貴驅動的銀行現在已經在 40 個不同的州發放了 2,000 多筆汽車再融資貸款。這些貸款開始為我們的人工智能模型提供還款數據。

And lastly, we now have our first 5 banks and credit unions signed up for auto lending on our platform.

最後，我們現在有前 5 家銀行和信用合作社在我們的平台上註冊了汽車貸款。

We've also made fast progress on our automotive retail solution, today, known as Prodigy Software. Since the beginning of the year, we have doubled the number of dealerships, aka rooftops, using Prodigy. And in Q2, more than $1 billion in vehicles were sold through Prodigy. We expect the first Upstart-powered loan to be offered through this platform before the end of 2021.

我們的汽車零售解決方案（今天稱為 Prodigy Software）也取得了快速進展。自今年年初以來，我們使用 Prodigy 將經銷商（也稱為屋頂）的數量翻了一番。在第二季度，Prodigy 售出了超過 10 億美元的汽車。我們預計將在 2021 年底之前通過該平台提供第一筆由 Upstart 提供的貸款。

Now a bit about the company itself. In June, we announced that Upstart is moving to a digital-first model, where most Upstarters can live and work anywhere in the U.S. We came to this decision for a few reasons. First, we've shown we can work well remotely as a team. The arguments against remote work tend to be historical rather than backed by real facts or data.

現在談談公司本身。 6 月，我們宣布 Upstart 正在轉向數字優先模式，大多數 Upstarter 可以在美國任何地方生活和工作。我們做出這個決定有幾個原因。首先，我們已經證明我們可以作為一個團隊進行遠程工作。反對遠程工作的論點往往是歷史性的，而不是真實的事實或數據支持的。

Second, the tech world feels like it's on a multiyear transition toward work-from-anywhere, and we want to be ahead of the curve. Third, we believe the benefits of in-office work can be captured in just a few well-considered days together each month. And fourth, given the scale of our ambitions and the talent we need to aggressively pursue our goals, we need to tap into talent across the entire country.

其次，科技界感覺它正處於向隨時隨地工作的多年過渡期，我們希望走在潮流的前面。第三，我們相信每個月只需要經過深思熟慮的幾天就可以發揮辦公室工作的好處。第四，鑑於我們的雄心壯志和積極追求目標所需的人才，我們需要在全國范圍內挖掘人才。

The good news is Digital First has paid immediate dividends to our recruiting efforts. Though we announced this plan just a couple of months ago, over 1/3 of our job offers in the past few weeks have been to candidates outside our footprint. And we've seen an acceptance rate of 80% to these offers, a dramatic improvement over what we've seen historically.

好消息是，Digital First 立即為我們的招聘工作帶來了回報。儘管我們在幾個月前宣布了這一計劃，但在過去幾週內，我們有超過 1/3 的工作機會提供給了我們範圍之外的候選人。我們已經看到這些報價的接受率達到了 80%，這比我們以往看到的情況有了顯著改善。

Digital-first is not just a reaction to the last 1.5 years. It's a sign that we intend to create one of the largest and most impactful fintechs in the world. We're building a company that will be distributed not just physically, but logically, able to pursue multiple markets and business opportunities at the same time. We need extraordinary talent and the leadership to do this right. And digital-first will enable us to find that talent wherever it may be.

數字優先不僅僅是對過去 1.5 年的反應。這表明我們打算創建世界上最大、最具影響力的金融科技公司之一。我們正在建立一家不僅在物理上分佈，而且在邏輯上分佈的公司，能夠同時追求多個市場和商業機會。我們需要非凡的人才和領導才能做到這一點。數字優先將使我們能夠在任何地方找到人才。

Digital-first may help us recruit talent wherever it resides, but it's our culture and mission that will keep it here. We aim to be the go-to employer for those driven to build the most modern of technologies, artificial intelligence, to solve one of the most intractable problems, financial inclusion. To do this, Upstart must be widely recognized as a destination company for those destined to have real impact on the world while experiencing unparalleled career growth.

數字優先可以幫助我們在任何地方招聘人才，但我們的文化和使命將把它留在這裡。我們的目標是成為那些致力於打造最現代技術、人工智能的人的首選雇主，以解決最棘手的問題之一，即金融包容性。要做到這一點，Upstart 必須被廣泛認為是那些注定要對世界產生真正影響，同時經歷無與倫比的職業發展的人的目的地公司。

In this theme, we were recently honored to be included in the Gender Diversity Index by State Street Advisers, recognizing Upstart's role as one of the top companies in the U.S. for women in leadership. The exchange-traded fund, which trades under the ticker SHE, helps demonstrate that diversity and strong performance go hand-in-hand.

在這個主題中，我們最近很榮幸被 State Street Advisers 列入性別多樣性指數，以表彰 Upstart 作為美國女性領導力領域的頂級公司之一。交易所交易基金在股票代碼 SHE 下進行交易，有助於證明多樣性和強勁表現是齊頭並進的。

History has shown that turbulent times can provide the backdrop where next-generation companies emerge. The past 18 months have been just that for Upstart, and our team has risen to the challenge. We have built a strong and profitable core from which we expect to launch several new products and services in the months and years to come. AI lending will transform financial services in the decade ahead, and we aim to make Upstart synonymous with that category. Thank you. And I'd like now to turn it over to Sanjay, our Chief Financial Officer, to walk through our Q2 financial results and guidance. Sanjay?

歷史表明，動蕩的時代可以為下一代公司的出現提供背景。過去 18 個月對 Upstart 來說就是如此，我們的團隊已經迎接挑戰。我們已經建立了一個強大且有利可圖的核心，我們希望在未來幾個月和幾年內推出多種新產品和服務。人工智能貸款將在未來十年改變金融服務，我們的目標是讓 Upstart 成為該類別的代名詞。謝謝你。我現在想把它交給我們的首席財務官 Sanjay 來介紹我們的第二季度財務業績和指導。桑傑？

Thank you, Dave, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. We'll dive straight into our most recent quarterly results.

謝謝你，戴夫，也感謝大家今天加入我們。我們將直接研究我們最近的季度業績。

Revenues in Q2 came in at $194 million, up 60% quarter-over-quarter from Q1 of this year. As a side note, we will omit references to year-over-year growth rates for our P&L this quarter as they are all well above 1,000% due to the lapping of last year's pandemic impact.

第二季度的收入為 1.94 億美元，比今年第一季度環比增長 60%。作為旁注，我們將省略本季度損益表的同比增長率，因為由於去年的大流行影響，它們都遠高於 1,000%。

Of that total revenue, $187 million, or 97% of the total, came in the form of revenue from fees. The volume of transactions across our platform this quarter was approximately 287,000 loans, up 69% quarter-over-quarter, partially driven by a 240-basis-point quarter-over-quarter increase in the conversion rate up to 24.4%.

在總收入中，有 1.87 億美元（佔總收入的 97%）來自收費收入。本季度我們平台上的交易量約為 287,000 筆貸款，環比增長 69%，部分原因是轉換率環比增長 240 個基點，高達 24.4%。

The balance of our growth in transaction volume came from an increase in the number of rate requests we received this quarter as our marketing programs scaled in response to the conversion funnel improvements of prior quarters.

我們交易量增長的平衡來自於我們本季度收到的費率請求數量的增加，因為我們的營銷計劃針對前幾個季度的轉換漏斗改進進行了擴展。

Our contribution profit, a non-GAAP metric, which we define as revenue from fees, minus variable costs for borrower acquisition, verification and servicing, was $96.7 million in Q2, up 73% quarter-over-quarter and representing a 52% contribution margin, up from a margin of 48% in the prior quarter and 32% 1 year ago. This level of contribution margin remains quite elevated, partially due to the ongoing improvements to our conversion funnel, and in part, owing to some onetime gains realized in the fair value of our servicing rights due to the updating of certain underlying assumptions.

我們的貢獻利潤是一個非 GAAP 指標，我們將其定義為費用收入減去借款人獲取、驗證和服務的可變成本，在第二季度為 9670 萬美元，環比增長 73%，貢獻率為 52% ，高於上一季度的 48% 和一年前的 32%。這種邊際貢獻水平仍然很高，部分原因是我們的轉換漏斗不斷改進，部分原因是由於某些基本假設的更新，我們的服務權的公允價值實現了一些一次性收益。

As we have discussed on past earnings calls, we continue to expect this level of contribution margin to moderate downwards over the coming quarters as we accelerate investments in marketing and operations.

正如我們在過去的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，隨著我們加快對營銷和運營的投資，我們繼續預計這一水平的邊際貢獻將在未來幾個季度放緩。

Q2 operating expenses were $158 million, up 49% quarter-over-quarter or 40% quarter-over-quarter when netting out the impact of stock-based compensation. Investment in engineering and R&D remains our priority, growing 66% quarter-over-quarter to $31 million in Q2. General and administrative spend grew slower than revenue in Q2, increasing 29% quarter-over-quarter to $26 million. The other expense categories of sales and marketing and customer operations were largely driven by variable cost increases supporting revenue growth.

扣除股票薪酬的影響後，第二季度運營費用為 1.58 億美元，環比增長 49% 或環比增長 40%。工程和研發投資仍然是我們的首要任務，第二季度環比增長 66%，達到 3100 萬美元。第二季度一般和行政支出的增長速度低於收入，環比增長 29% 至 2600 萬美元。銷售和營銷以及客戶運營的其他費用類別主要是由支持收入增長的可變成本增長推動的。

We expect to temporarily accelerate expenditures in our fixed expense base over the next 3 to 4 quarters as we contemplate large investments in engineering and in scaling up the go-to-market function of our Prodigy platform for auto commerce.

我們預計在未來 3 到 4 個季度內，我們將暫時加快固定支出基礎的支出，因為我們考慮對工程進行大量投資，並擴大 Prodigy 汽車商務平台的上市功能。

Our Q2 GAAP net income was $37.3 million, up from $10.1 million last quarter and from negative $6.2 million in the same quarter of the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA, which we adjust for stock-based compensation, came in at $59.5 million in Q2, up from $21 million last quarter and negative $3.1 million in Q2 of 2020. Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 was $0.62 based on a diluted weighted average share count of 94.8 million.

我們的第二季度 GAAP 淨收入為 3730 萬美元，高於上一季度的 1010 萬美元和去年同期的負 620 萬美元。我們根據股票薪酬調整的調整後 EBITDA 在第二季度為 5950 萬美元，高於上一季度的 2100 萬美元和 2020 年第二季度的負 310 萬美元。第二季度調整後的每股收益為 0.62 美元，基於稀釋加權平均份額數量為 9480 萬。

Turning our attention to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $618 million in restricted and unrestricted cash, up from $336 million at the end of last quarter. This balance reflects the proceeds from the follow-on stock offering we completed on April 13, which resulted in an additional $265 million raised net of underwriting discounts, as well as the complete paydown of our corporate term loan and revolving net facilities.

將注意力轉向資產負債表。我們在本季度末有 6.18 億美元的受限和非受限現金，高於上一季度末的 3.36 億美元。該餘額反映了我們在 4 月 13 日完成的後續股票發行的收益，這導致在扣除承銷折扣後額外籌集了 2.65 億美元，以及我們的公司定期貸款和循環淨額貸款的全部償還。

In terms of loan assets, we carried an aggregate balance of loans, notes and residuals of $95.3 million, up from $73.2 million in Q1 and down from $148 million at the end of the same quarter in the prior year. As we have previously highlighted, these loan assets represent the totality of the direct exposure we have to credit risk.

在貸款資產方面，我們的貸款、票據和殘值總額為 9530 萬美元，高於第一季度的 7320 萬美元，低於去年同期的 1.48 億美元。正如我們之前所強調的，這些貸款資產代表了我們面臨的信用風險的全部直接風險。

We'll now turn to our near-term and full year outlook. While we continue to see our contribution margin is slightly above its expected trend line and do anticipate some mild contraction over the coming quarters, we do now expect elevated margins to be more durable than we predicted at the start of the year.

我們現在將轉向我們的近期和全年展望。雖然我們繼續看到我們的邊際貢獻略高於其預期趨勢線，並且確實預計未來幾個季度會出現一些溫和收縮，但我們現在確實預計利潤率的提高將比我們在年初預測的更持久。

With this in mind, for Q3, we are expecting total revenues of $205 million to $215 million, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 221% at the midpoint, contribution margin of approximately 45%, net income of $18 million to $22 million, adjusted net income of $28 million to $32 million, adjusted EBITDA of $30 million to $34 million, and a diluted weighted average share count of approximately 94.9 million shares.

考慮到這一點，我們預計第三季度的總收入為 2.05 億美元至 2.15 億美元，中點同比增長率為 221%，貢獻率約為 45%，淨收入為 1800 萬美元至 22 美元百萬美元，調整後的淨收入為 2800 萬美元至 3200 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 為 3000 萬美元至 3400 萬美元，攤薄加權平均股數約為 9490 萬股。

For the full year of 2021, we now expect revenues of approximately $750 million, representing a growth rate of 221% year-over-year and up from the $600 million that we indicated last quarter; contribution margin of approximately 45%, up from 42% indicated last quarter; and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 17%, up from 10% indicated last quarter.

對於 2021 年全年，我們現在預計收入約為 7.5 億美元，同比增長 221%，高於我們上一季度指出的 6 億美元；貢獻率約為 45%，高於上一季度的 42%；調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率約為 17%，高於上一季度的 10%。

I'd like to reiterate Dave's gratitude to all of the hard-working teams at Upstart whose efforts are propelling our growth and financial outcomes, which continue to exceed our own internal expectations. Thanks and looking forward to seeing everyone again in another 90 days.

我想重申 Dave 對 Upstart 所有辛勤工作的團隊的感謝，他們的努力正在推動我們的增長和財務成果，這些成果繼續超出我們自己的內部預期。感謝並期待在另一個 90 天內再次見到大家。

With that, Dave and I are now happy to open the call to any questions. Operator?

有了這個，戴夫和我現在很高興打開電話詢問任何問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Ramsey El-Assal as with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將向 Ramsey El-Assal 提出第一個問題，就像對 Barclays 提出的問題一樣。

Another super strong quarter here. I wanted to ask about the components of guidance. If you can kind of help parse this out -- parse out for us, rather, what is macro loan market rebounding more broadly versus improvement in the conversion rate you might be anticipating, which -- or versus maybe auto contributing? I'm just trying to get an idea from where the drivers are for the full year guidance increase.

這裡又是一個超級強勁的季度。我想問一下指導的組成部分。如果你能幫忙分析一下——更確切地說，宏觀貸款市場的反彈與你可能預期的轉化率的提高相比，宏觀貸款市場的反彈是什麼——或者與汽車的貢獻相比？我只是想從司機的位置來了解全年指導增加的情況。

Yes, sure. Randy, this is Sanjay. Thanks for your question.

是的，當然。蘭迪，這是桑傑。謝謝你的問題。

So I think in keeping with tradition over the past few quarters, our assumptions around the macro environment are static, meaning we're not really predicting either a deterioration or a rebound in the economy with respect to our numbers. We're sort of predicting the status quo which, I guess, importantly for us, means credit card balances remain quite low and savings rates remain quite high in the economy. So we're not necessarily predicting a change in either of those statuses.

因此，我認為按照過去幾個季度的傳統，我們對宏觀環境的假設是靜態的，這意味著我們並沒有真正預測經濟的惡化或反彈。我們在某種程度上預測現狀，我想這對我們來說很重要，這意味著信用卡餘額仍然很低，而經濟中的儲蓄率仍然很高。因此，我們不一定預測這兩種狀態中的任何一種都會發生變化。

And with respect to auto, we continue to have no meaningful contribution to the economics in fiscal year 2021. So really, everything you're seeing in our guidance is our evolving review of our core personal loan business, how we're seeing the funnel evolving. And obviously, as a second order effect, how our marketing programs are catching up to the efficiency of the funnel.

在汽車方面，我們在 2021 財年仍然對經濟沒有任何有意義的貢獻。所以說真的，你在我們的指導中看到的一切都是我們對核心個人貸款業務的不斷審查，我們如何看待漏斗不斷發展。顯然，作為二階效應，我們的營銷計劃如何趕上漏斗的效率。

Okay. I wanted to ask about conversion rates. That seems to have been a pretty significant driver of the beat this quarter as well as in past quarters. Could you talk about the pipeline of improvements that you have maybe in the wings there? What should we expect in the third quarter? And sort of what is baked into guidance in terms of that conversion rate?

好的。我想問一下轉化率。這似乎是本季度以及過去幾個季度的重要推動力。你能談談你可能在那裡進行的改進嗎？第三季度我們應該期待什麼？就轉換率而言，指導中包含了什麼？

Ramsey, this is Dave. Like always, we kind of have a significant backlog of projects that we're working through that potentially improve the funnel conversion. I mean it's kind of the core way we grow, is improvements to our models or some of the technology that helps borrowers get through our funnel. And we continue to have a significant number of model upgrades that we expect and such. We don't always know exactly the -- exactly what the impact will be or the scale of it.

拉姆齊，這是戴夫。像往常一樣，我們正在處理大量積壓的項目，這些項目可能會改善渠道轉換。我的意思是這是我們發展的核心方式，是對我們的模型或一些幫助借款人通過我們的渠道的技術的改進。而且我們繼續進行大量我們期望的模型升級等。我們並不總是確切地知道 - 確切的影響將是什麼或它的規模。

So I think that's, on balance, reflected in the guidance, which is a continued pipeline, some smaller things, some that have potential to be larger impact. Some are related to approvals and rates offered to consumers. Others are off related to friction and reducing friction. So there -- it's a little bit of a mass. And we don't have anything particular to point to other than to say the team is working really hard to get upgrades and improvements into the model that are going to make the consumer product better and it's going to make Upstart's business more successful.

所以我認為，總的來說，這反映在指導中，這是一個持續的管道，一些較小的東西，一些有可能產生更大影響的東西。有些與向消費者提供的批准和費率有關。其他則與摩擦和減少摩擦有關。所以那裡 - 它有一點點質量。我們沒有什麼特別要指出的，只是說團隊正在努力升級和改進模型，這將使消費產品變得更好，這將使 Upstart 的業務更加成功。

And what about what might be baked into guidance?

什麼可能被納入指導呢？

Yes. And maybe as part of that, I can just address the initial assumption, Ramsey, which is we did have good continuing progress in terms of our conversion rates on our funnel that were sort of pushing up against 25% this quarter. But a lot of the growth actually did also come from scaling up our marketing programs to scale up to the past few quarters of gains that we've had. And if you look at the breakdown of those, you'll see that actually a majority of the growth this quarter sequentially came from the top of the funnel, in fact. And so that sort of plays into how we think about things going forward.

是的。也許作為其中的一部分，我可以解決最初的假設，Ramsey，即我們確實在我們的漏斗轉換率方面取得了良好的持續進展，本季度有點推高至 25%。但實際上，很多增長確實也來自擴大我們的營銷計劃，以擴大我們過去幾個季度的收益。如果您查看這些細分，您會發現本季度的大部分增長實際上來自漏斗頂部。因此，這會影響我們對未來事物的看法。

There was additional gains this quarter on the funnel. And so the conversion rates, and in fact, the contribution margins actually went up even though we scaled our marketing campaigns like more than 50% quarter-over-quarter. But a lot of what we're thinking about next quarter and in the back half of the year also has to do with scaling up the marketing programs to continue to cut up for that funnel efficiency.

本季度漏斗還有額外的收益。因此，即使我們將營銷活動的規模環比增加了 50% 以上，轉化率，事實上，邊際貢獻實際上也上升了。但是我們在下個季度和下半年考慮的很多事情也與擴大營銷計劃以繼續提高漏斗效率有關。

And our historical sort of breakdown between top of funnel and then conversion rate efficiency tends to be about 50-50. And I think that's a rough ballpark for how we're thinking about the back half of the year. Without getting into specific projects, I think that's the rough breakdown in terms of how we see the rest of the growth happening this year.

我們在漏斗頂部和轉化率效率之間的歷史分類往往約為 50-50。而且我認為這是我們如何考慮下半年的大致情況。在不涉及具體項目的情況下，我認為這是我們如何看待今年其他增長的粗略細分。

We'll take our next question from Ron Josey with JMP Securities.

我們將回答 JMP 證券公司的 Ron Josey 提出的下一個問題。

Another super strong quarter. Dave, you mentioned in your opening remarks, the goal of launching multiple new products for years to come. So maybe this is a little bit of a bigger picture question. But just talk about Upstart's core AI approach, the data corporates that you have as you think about these newer opportunities and verticals to go through.

另一個超級強勁的季度。戴夫，你在開場白中提到了在未來幾年推出多種新產品的目標。所以也許這是一個更大的問題。但只要談談 Upstart 的核心 AI 方法，即您在考慮這些新機會和要經歷的垂直領域時所擁有的數據公司。

So obviously, we're in personal lines, we're in autos as well. So maybe talk to us a little bit about verticals, remind us there, and/or potentially expanding the borrower profile, which I think you mentioned targeting customers previously ignored maybe going further down funnel, if you will. And I have a follow-up.

所以很明顯，我們在個人領域，我們也在汽車領域。因此，也許可以與我們談談垂直行業，在那裡提醒我們，和/或可能擴展借款人資料，我認為您提到針對以前忽略的客戶可能會進一步進入漏斗，如果您願意的話。我有一個後續行動。

Yes, sure. There's just a lot of opportunities that we have always considered what we're building as kind of a core technology and have chosen the first place to deploy it, which is unsecured personal loans of a certain nature, meaning loans that are $1,000 to $50,000. That's the range on our platform today, serving a bunch of kind of use cases for consumers. But there's obviously a much bigger world out there.

是的，當然。有很多機會，我們一直認為我們正在構建的核心技術是一種核心技術，並選擇首先部署它，這是某種性質的無抵押個人貸款，即 1,000 至 50,000 美元的貸款。這就是我們今天平台上的範圍，為消費者提供一系列用例。但顯然那裡有一個更大的世界。

Auto and our efforts in auto were really the first time to expand this technology into a secured loan, which behaves differently and has very different attributes to it, has a bunch of different problems to solve. But benefits enormously from all the history in the personal lending world, which is very focused on underwriting an individual.

汽車和我們在汽車領域的努力確實是第一次將這項技術擴展到擔保貸款，它的行為不同，屬性也很不同，有很多不同的問題需要解決。但是從個人借貸世界的所有歷史中受益匪淺，該世界非常專注於為個人承保。

So I would just say, look, we look for inefficiencies in the market that are very large, where the opportunity to improve the life or the access to capital or credit for the consumer is vast. And we think there's a lot more in the unsecured lending space, for sure. Personal loans are a very, very useful tool in so many ways. And so we expect to do a lot more just within personal lending to solve more problems with that tool.

所以我只想說，看，我們在非常大的市場中尋找效率低下的地方，在那裡改善消費者生活或獲得資本或信貸的機會是巨大的。當然，我們認為無擔保貸款領域還有很多。個人貸款在很多方面都是非常非常有用的工具。因此，我們希望在個人貸款方面做更多事情，以使用該工具解決更多問題。

Auto, being the secured loan, we're just getting into refinance now. And as you've heard, we'll be into the purchase side of auto, hopefully, by the end of the year. We'll start to have loans flowing through that. And we just see a lot of opportunity out there. We don't think credit is a solved problem almost anywhere in terms of people getting rates that makes sense for them based on their true risk.

汽車，作為擔保貸款，我們現在才剛剛進入再融資。正如你所聽說的，我們有望在今年年底前進入汽車採購領域。我們將開始有貸款流經那裡。我們只是看到了很多機會。我們認為信貸幾乎在任何地方都不是一個已解決的問題，因為人們根據他們的真實風險獲得對他們有意義的利率。

So you will definitely see us move beyond personal loans and auto, but frankly, we have so much uncharted territory, even in those 2 categories, that we're not in a particular rush to do so. We are excited to move beyond those 2 categories. I think, in the months and years to come, you'll see us go beyond them. But there's so much to be done right in these 2 categories, and that's most of our near-term effort is right there.

因此，您肯定會看到我們超越個人貸款和汽車，但坦率地說，即使在這兩個類別中，我們也有很多未知領域，我們並不急於這樣做。我們很高興超越這兩個類別。我認為，在未來的幾個月和幾年裡，你會看到我們超越他們。但是在這兩個類別中還有很多事情要做，而這就是我們近期的大部分工作。

Got it. That's super helpful. And just a quick follow-up, Sanjay, to your last answer. I think you talked about marketing and gains in the funnel this quarter. So can you just talk a little more -- or please talk a little bit more just the expansion of the marketing channels. We've relied quite a bit on Credit Karma in the past. And so would love to hear how that's evolving.

知道了。這非常有幫助。桑傑，你最後的回答只是一個快速的跟進。我認為您談到了本季度漏斗中的營銷和收益。所以你能多說一點 - 或者請多談談營銷渠道的擴展。過去，我們相當依賴 Credit Karma。所以很想听聽這是如何演變的。

Sure. I mean, I guess I'll say that we did a significant expansion once again of our marketing programs. We grew our marketing spend for about -- from about, I think, $45 million, $46 million last quarter to $71-million plus. So we grew our programs by more than 50%, and yet they got more efficient, right? So our contribution margins actually went up, which is rare. It's just kind of underlying that is just the continued strength of the funnel.

當然。我的意思是，我想我會說我們再次對我們的營銷計劃進行了重大擴展。我們的營銷支出增加了大約——我認為，從上一季度的 4500 萬美元、4600 萬美元增加到 7100 萬美元以上。所以我們的程序增長了 50% 以上，但它們變得更有效率，對吧？所以我們的邊際貢獻實際上上升了，這是罕見的。它只是一種潛在的，只是漏斗的持續力量。

And then in terms of channels, we are definitely seeing a lot of our strongest growth in channels that are more sort of direct to the consumer and to the borrower. So concentrations in marketing channel distribution are definitely declining across the board.

然後在渠道方面，我們肯定在更直接面向消費者和借款人的渠道中看到了我們最強勁的增長。因此，營銷渠道分佈的集中度肯定會全面下降。

We'll take our next question from John Hecht with Jefferies.

我們將向 Jefferies 提出 John Hecht 的下一個問題。

Dave and Sanjay, I guess maybe moving a little bit just to the other side of the network is talk about maybe some of the investors. Obviously, the performance of the asset is very strong. But any changes in terms of kind of the composition of investors or geographical presence or how the investors are tying into the platform over the past 2 or 3 months?

戴夫和桑傑，我想也許只是搬到網絡的另一邊，也許是在談論一些投資者。顯然，該資產的表現非常強勁。但在過去 2 或 3 個月內，投資者的構成或地域分佈或投資者與平台的聯繫方式是否有任何變化？

John, you're referring to the loan investors?

約翰，你指的是貸款投資者？

Correct. Yes.

正確的。是的。

Sure. Yes. I mean I think the only things to call out really is just an ongoing expansion of the overall universe of investors. We tend to get -- we continue to get a lot of new folks who are working with us as the product matures, as the histories and the curves mature, and that's been an ongoing sort of evolution for a couple of quarters now.

當然。是的。我的意思是，我認為唯一需要注意的就是投資者整體範圍的持續擴張。我們傾向於 - 隨著產品的成熟，隨著歷史和曲線的成熟，我們將繼續獲得很多與我們合作的新人，而這已經持續了幾個季度的演變。

With respect to geography, I mean, we've got some engagement with international investors now, which is, let's say, more recent. And of course, the credit markets themselves as a macro statement are pretty constructive right now. But yes, overall, I would just characterize it as a continuing evolution of a program that's working really well and expanding.

關於地理，我的意思是，我們現在已經與國際投資者進行了一些接觸，比方說，這是最近的。當然，作為宏觀聲明的信貸市場本身目前非常具有建設性。但是，是的，總的來說，我只是將其描述為一個運行良好且擴展的程序的持續演變。

Okay. That's helpful. And then I think Dave mentioned that there's a couple of banks that kind of in a sense, dropped the FICO requirement because there's -- they have a greater faith in the score. I know it sounds maybe as recent, but that seems like a pretty positive development. And have you seen a market change in terms of maybe adoption or volumes coming out of those institutions? And do you think there are more to come?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我認為戴夫提到有幾家銀行在某種意義上放棄了 FICO 要求，因為他們對分數有更大的信心。我知道這聽起來可能是最近的事，但這似乎是一個非常積極的發展。您是否看到這些機構的採用率或數量方面的市場變化？你認為還會有更多嗎？

Yes. I think I would see it as a trend that we would have hoped for, which is FICO, a FICO minimum, meaning a bank saying, we only lend above 650 FICO or 680 or what have you is from our perspective, a bit of a guardrail. The model itself, of course, should convey risk and help you make the right decision, and FICO is a bit of an artifact of history in terms of it being a hard cutoff.

是的。我想我會認為這是我們所希望的趨勢，即 FICO，FICO 最低限度，意思是銀行說，我們只貸出 650 FICO 或 680 以上，或者從我們的角度來看你有什麼，有點護欄。當然，模型本身應該傳達風險並幫助您做出正確的決定，而 FICO 是一個歷史產物，因為它是一個硬分界線。

So -- but of course, we're not here to tell banks what their credit model should look like. So we gladly put the constraints on that make sense for their risk committees. But we're just happy to see as these banks see performance over time, in this particular case, and we're hopeful this will be a trend. As they start to trust the model, the model actually -- it does include FICO. FICO is part of the model. It's just not a hard constraint on who can get a loan and who can't.

所以——當然，我們不是來告訴銀行他們的信用模型應該是什麼樣子的。因此，我們很樂意將限制放在對他們的風險委員會有意義的限制上。但我們很高興看到這些銀行隨著時間的推移看到業績，在這種特殊情況下，我們希望這將成為一種趨勢。當他們開始信任該模型時，該模型實際上——它確實包括 FICO。 FICO 是模型的一部分。這對誰可以獲得貸款和誰不能獲得貸款並沒有嚴格的限制。

And I think that trend, to us, is -- in retrospect, it's fairly obvious this should happen. But I think it's really taken some time, and probably will take some time to flush through, because there's so much history with FICO that, naturally, banks have relied on it and feel comfortable with it.

我認為，對我們來說，這種趨勢是——回想起來，很明顯這應該發生。但我認為這確實需要一些時間，並且可能需要一些時間才能完成，因為 FICO 的歷史悠久，銀行自然而然地依賴它並對此感到滿意。

So -- but it's a good thing. It means they can lend to people they couldn't lend to before. The performance is as good or better than it was. It doesn't have any impact there. So generally, we view it as a good thing for consumers and good thing for forward-looking banks.

所以——但這是一件好事。這意味著他們可以藉給以前不能藉給的人。性能與以前一樣好或更好。它在那裡沒有任何影響。所以總的來說，我們認為這對消費者來說是一件好事，對有遠見的銀行來說也是一件好事。

We'll take our next question from Pete Christiansen with Citi.

我們將向花旗銀行的 Pete Christiansen 提出下一個問題。

[I would iterate] pretty impressive results there. I wanted to dig into the average loan size a little bit. I know that you called out there was an AI change, which removed the minimum amount. And I guess you could also make the argument that government disbursements have increased savings. And, sure, those are contributors.

[我會迭代] 那裡的結果令人印象深刻。我想深入了解平均貸款規模。我知道你說有一個 AI 更改，它刪除了最低金額。而且我想你也可以提出政府支出增加儲蓄的論點。而且，當然，這些都是貢獻者。

But I was just curious if there's been any use case changes or any noticeable changes between debt consolidation and perhaps other uses, I don't know, vacation, home improvement, et cetera. I'm just curious if you've seen any underlying developments there? And then I have a follow-up.

但我只是好奇在債務合併和其他用途之間是否有任何用例變化或任何明顯變化，我不知道，假期，家庭裝修等等。我只是好奇你是否看到那裡有任何潛在的發展？然後我有一個跟進。

Sure. Yes. Thanks for the question. This is Sanjay. I don't think any very stark changes in use case. I think there's a combination of things that are internal to our models. The example that Dave mentioned is 1 example of something that will, at the margin, change the mix to lower-sized loans. There are other changes to our model that increasingly will compete to an expanded universe over time. And what that means is we're expanding downwards on the prime spectrum in terms of our capabilities. And of course, that will have an effect on loan size mix as well.

當然。是的。謝謝你的問題。這是桑傑。我認為用例沒有任何非常明顯的變化。我認為我們的模型內部存在多種事物的組合。戴夫提到的例子是一個例子，它會在邊際上改變組合為較小規模的貸款。我們的模型還有其他變化，隨著時間的推移，這些變化將越來越多地與擴展的宇宙競爭。這意味著我們在能力方面正在向下擴展。當然，這也會對貸款規模組合產生影響。

And then we think that there's probably some macro effects continuing in the economy, and those are a little bit harder to measure. But we have seen, since certainly the onset of COVID, a pretty clear trend that I think is moderating, but it's still sort of visible, which is that loan sizes and demand for loans in terms of what's being requested has moderated downwards in the last 18 months.

然後我們認為經濟中可能會繼續存在一些宏觀影響，這些影響有點難以衡量。但我們已經看到，自 COVID 爆發以來，一個非常明顯的趨勢是我認為正在放緩，但它仍然是可見的，即貸款規模和貸款需求（就所要求的貸款而言）在過去已經放緩18 個月。

That's helpful. And then looking at your -- on the supply side, again, you've obviously expanded your network with investors. And I know that in recent past, there hasn't been enough demand to satisfy your investor demand, I guess, for loans. Just wondering if you could talk about the supply/demand balance now, whether or not third-party investors are getting enough supply, and if there's any other constraints there?

這很有幫助。然後再看看你的 - 在供應方面，你顯然已經擴大了與投資者的網絡。而且我知道，在最近的過去，我猜，沒有足夠的需求來滿足您的投資者對貸款的需求。只是想知道您現在是否可以談論供需平衡，第三方投資者是否獲得了足夠的供應，以及那裡是否有任何其他限制？

Sure. Yes. I mean we've had definitely robust increases on the supply side, both with our number of banking partnerships, which has increased nicely, as well as the investment dollars that flow through to the institutional world. But I think we're in very much the same position of equilibrium that we've been in the past, which is -- there's -- finding the borrowers, economically and profitably, tends to be the limiting factor in our growth. And I think that's probably still the case even at this new level of volume.

當然。是的。我的意思是，我們的供應方面肯定有強勁的增長，無論是我們的銀行合作夥伴的數量（增長良好），以及流向機構世界的投資資金。但我認為我們處於與過去非常相似的平衡位置，即 - 存在 - 在經濟和盈利方面尋找借款人往往是我們增長的限制因素。而且我認為即使在這個新的音量水平上，情況可能仍然如此。

We'll take our next question from Nat Schindler with Bank of America.

我們將向美國銀行的 Nat Schindler 提出下一個問題。

Yes. And just before the question, I want to do a quick quibble with some of my colleagues here on the sell side. Pretty impressive results. And another strong quarter seems a bit understated when you're talking about quadruple digit growth, which might be a first in my career.

是的。就在這個問題之前，我想和我在賣方的一些同事快速討論一下。相當令人印象深刻的結果。當你談論四位數的增長時，另一個強勁的季度似乎有點被低估了，這可能是我職業生涯中的第一次。

What's more impressive is as you mentioned early on, this was on the back of an -- even if you take that out, that Q2 of last year was you turned off revenue. So -- but if you compare it to Q2 of '19, you're still looking at fivefold growth on that year. And if you look at the TransUnion data and other data on the personal loan market, obviously, the personal loan market is still down as credit card balances have fallen.

更令人印象深刻的是，正如你早些時候提到的，這是基於 - 即使你把它拿出來，去年第二季度你關閉了收入。所以 - 但是如果你將它與 19 年的第二季度進行比較，你仍然看到那一年的五倍增長。而如果你看一下環聯數據和其他個人貸款市場的數據，很明顯，個人貸款市場仍在下滑，因為信用卡餘額下降了。

I know you mentioned that in your forward guidance, you're not predicting any change to what has happened. But as we think about -- what do you think your growth would have been on a more normal -- maybe in the first half of this year, in a more normalized market for personal loans, where credit card balances are higher and they're on stimulus packages pushing down the need for personal loans.

我知道您在您的前瞻性指導中提到，您並未預測所發生的事情會發生任何變化。但正如我們所想的那樣——你認為你的增長會更加正常——也許在今年上半年，在一個更加正常化的個人貸款市場中，信用卡餘額更高，而且刺激計劃降低了對個人貸款的需求。

Nat, this is Dave. It's, of course, very difficult to speculate. But for sure, I think what we would say has happened is a shift in leadership and a shift in market share, driven by a significant disruption to the market, i.e., the pandemic. And so a difficult time in the market, whether that's a recession or some other kind of event, really begins to show the differences between strength of platform.

納特，這是戴夫。當然，這很難推測。但可以肯定的是，我認為我們所說的已經發生的是領導層的轉變和市場份額的轉變，這是由市場的重大破壞（即大流行）驅動的。因此，市場的艱難時期，無論是經濟衰退還是其他類型的事件，都真正開始顯示出平台實力之間的差異。

And I think that's really what happened. That really explains the very, very large growth in market share, and et cetera, that happened during this time. So it's a little hard to exactly say what would have happened if there wasn't this disruption.

我認為這確實發生了。這確實解釋了在此期間發生的市場份額的非常非常大的增長等等。所以很難準確地說如果沒有這種中斷會發生什麼。

I think we are on a good trajectory. But I do think the nature of the pandemic and the stresses it put on banks and lenders and consumers for a time, et cetera, just the uncertainty of it all sort of leaned into our strengths and gave us a benefit that we might have just taken much longer to get to the position we got ourselves to.

我認為我們正處於良好的軌道上。但我確實認為，大流行的性質以及它給銀行、貸方和消費者帶來的壓力，等等，只是它的不確定性都在某種程度上影響了我們的優勢，並給了我們可能剛剛獲得的好處到達我們自己的位置需要更長的時間。

So that's how I interpret it. It's really, of course, almost impossible to guess what would have happened if things had been different last year.

所以我就是這麼解釋的。當然，如果去年的情況有所不同，幾乎不可能猜到會發生什麼。

Yes. But I'm guessing that none of -- I'm not aware of any of your other competitors in the fintech world, which I would imagine have the same sort of strength in being fully online businesses and the like, that the pandemic helped. I don't think they're growing at 5x over Q2 2019. I haven't heard of anyone in the space growing at that kind of rate.

是的。但我猜沒有一個——我不知道你在金融科技領域的任何其他競爭對手，我想它們在完全在線業務等方面具有與大流行幫助相同的實力。我不認為他們的增長速度是 2019 年第二季度的 5 倍。我還沒有聽說該領域的任何人以這種速度增長。

Obviously, you're taking share. That says something to the better mouse trap. But how should we start thinking about how this starts normalizing out as we move to a normal market where the personal loan market is actually growing instead of shrinking as it is right now.

顯然，你正在分享。這說明了更好的捕鼠器。但是，我們應該如何開始思考，隨著我們進入一個正常市場，個人貸款市場實際上正在增長，而不是像現在這樣萎縮，這種情況如何開始正常化。

Yes. I'll just say it's a little difficult. I mean, we certainly feel this is happening with a bit of a headwind, meaning the demand side for credit is still down, as Sanjay referenced earlier. And when that will change, we don't know. We don't bank on it. We don't include anything -- any sort of assumptions about that in our guidance.

是的。我只想說有點難。我的意思是，正如桑傑之前提到的那樣，我們當然認為這是在逆風的情況下發生的，這意味著信貸需求方面仍在下降。什麼時候會改變，我們不知道。我們不指望它。在我們的指導中，我們不包括任何東西——任何形式的假設。

But there's -- we benefited also because our credit was resilient and responsive, and our bank partners saw that, investors saw that. And that allowed us to come back quicker. When the economy is considered normalized by everybody, whatever that means, maybe unemployment gets all the way back to pre-COVID levels, I think you're going to see a lot more activity in the market by everybody, by other banks who don't work with us, by fintech competitors.

但是，我們也受益，因為我們的信貸具有彈性和響應能力，我們的銀行合作夥伴看到了這一點，投資者也看到了這一點。這讓我們能夠更快地回來。當每個人都認為經濟正常化時，無論這意味著什麼，也許失業率會一路回到 COVID 之前的水平，我認為每個人都會看到市場上更多的活動，其他銀行不這樣做'金融科技競爭對手不與我們合作。

So I would just say, I think there's a chance and that we're hopeful there will be a boost in demand by people spending more -- spending -- tapping credit again as they might have pre-pandemic. But there's also more, I think, competition out there who's now back in the game and fully focused on themselves growing. So how that nets out, a little hard for us to judge, but those are the dynamics that we would expect to see in the coming quarters.

所以我只想說，我認為有機會，我們希望人們消費更多——消費——再次利用信貸，因為他們可能在大流行前有需求，這將提振需求。但我認為，還有更多的競爭者現在重返賽場並完全專注於自己的成長。那麼這將如何解決，我們有點難以判斷，但這些是我們期望在未來幾個季度看到的動態。

Thanks for your question, Nat. I think we have time for 1 more question.

謝謝你的問題，納特。我想我們還有時間再回答 1 個問題。

Our final question is from Mike Ng with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Mike Ng。

This is Adam Hotchkiss on for Mike. I believe you mentioned auto loans to date. But could you give us a sense for how many of those were during the quarter and how the margin profile of that product compares to the traditional personal loan product.

這是邁克的亞當霍奇基斯。我相信你提到了迄今為止的汽車貸款。但是，您能否讓我們了解一下本季度有多少此類產品以及該產品的保證金狀況與傳統個人貸款產品的比較情況。

And then on Prodigy, you mentioned you've doubled dealers since the beginning of the year, which seems like a pretty rapid pace of growth there. Could you talk a little bit just about the enterprise sales strategy that's driving that and the sort of the pacing for Prodigy in the back half of the year relative to the first half?

然後在 Prodigy 上，您提到自年初以來您的經銷商數量翻了一番，這似乎是那裡的快速增長速度。您能否談談推動這一目標的企業銷售戰略以及 Prodigy 在下半年相對於上半年的節奏？

Adam, this is Sanjay. Welcome. Welcome back to the party. I'll take the first question and defer to Dave on the second.

亞當，這是桑傑。歡迎。歡迎回到派對。我會回答第一個問題，第二個問題請教戴夫。

But with respect to auto, look, Dave threw out a couple of numbers in terms of our ramp. It's still very early days, obviously, but we're starting to see results and build repayment history. We're starting to sort of improve the funnel sequentially month-over-month. So we're in a good path there, I think.

但是關於汽車，看，戴夫在我們的坡道上拋出了幾個數字。顯然，現在還處於早期階段，但我們開始看到結果並建立還款歷史。我們開始逐月改進漏斗。因此，我認為，我們在這方面的道路很好。

And with respect to margins, I think it's still very early. We're still in the early stages of engaging with banks and engaging with investors and understanding the effects of fees on the conversion funnel and things like that. But I think our expectation remains that -- the loans are clearly bigger and so there will be a higher dollar revenue per loan. And we're expecting probably a similar dollar sort of contribution profit per loan as we see in personal loans. So the percentages will be a little bit different because the loan size is bigger, but that's our current going assumption.

關於利潤率，我認為現在還為時過早。我們仍處於與銀行接觸、與投資者接觸以及了解費用對轉換漏斗等的影響的早期階段。但我認為我們的期望仍然是——貸款顯然更大，因此每筆貸款的美元收入會更高。我們預計每筆貸款的貢獻利潤可能與我們在個人貸款中看到的類似。所以百分比會有點不同，因為貸款規模更大，但這是我們目前的假設。

Yes. And Adam, the second question you asked about sort of the go-to-market for the Prodigy software and how that looks. Yes. As we said -- as I said earlier, we've doubled the number of rooftops since the beginning of the year. The acquisition happened earlier this year.

是的。還有亞當，你問的第二個問題是關於 Prodigy 軟件的上市情況以及它的外觀。是的。正如我們所說 - 正如我之前所說，自今年年初以來，我們的屋頂數量翻了一番。此次收購發生在今年早些時候。

And Prodigy, in our view, is a very good product and a very small team. So it is a huge area of investment for us. In fact, I think we've said a couple of times, this is an area where we're going to overspend to build our go-to-market. And that team is largely what you would think of as an inside sales team, very focused on fast volume sales. And we are -- we care most -- I mean there is actually some bits of revenue that come from the use of that product, that's not really the long-term plan for monetization. It's, of course, through the offers of credit through it.

在我們看來，Prodigy 是一個非常好的產品和一個非常小的團隊。所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的投資領域。事實上，我想我們已經說過幾次了，這是一個我們將超支以建立我們的市場的領域。這個團隊在很大程度上就是你所認為的內部銷售團隊，非常專注於快速批量銷售。而且我們 - 我們最關心 - 我的意思是實際上有一些收入來自使用該產品，這並不是真正的長期貨幣化計劃。當然，它是通過它提供信貸。

But today, we're focused on ramping that team very quickly, both really in the sales and marketing function. And as well, by the way, on the R&D side, because Prodigy just has a great leadership position, is growing very quickly, and has done that with very, very modest-sized teams, and we definitely believe it makes a lot of sense for us to invest more in that. So that's happening right now. And we're tracking very aggressive goals for number of rooftops that are signed up every quarter, and that's something we're watching very carefully.

但今天，我們專注於快速壯大該團隊，無論是在銷售還是營銷職能方面。另外，順便說一下，在研發方面，因為 Prodigy 只是擁有出色的領導地位，發展非常迅速，並且已經與非常非常適中的團隊做到了這一點，我們絕對相信這很有意義讓我們在這方面投入更多。所以現在正在發生這種情況。我們正在跟踪每個季度註冊的屋頂數量的非常激進的目標，這是我們非常仔細地觀察的事情。

This does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back to your speakers for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給您的演講者，以獲取任何補充或結束語。

This is Dave. Just going to wrap up here. And I just want to reiterate, we're obviously pleased with the results. I think they do illustrate the type of company we are building. We think we have an opportunity to build one of the top handful of fintechs in the world because we are in a very, very large space, and because we think AI really is the future. It's the most transformational change that's happened in that space. So that's why we're excited.

這是戴夫。只是要在這裡結束。我只想重申，我們顯然對結果感到滿意。我認為它們確實說明了我們正在建立的公司類型。我們認為我們有機會建立世界上少數幾家頂級金融科技公司之一，因為我們處於一個非常非常大的空間，並且因為我們認為人工智能確實是未來。這是該領域發生的最具變革性的變化。這就是我們興奮的原因。

So thanks to all the Upstart team for delivering the results, and thanks for everybody out there for being with us. We look forward to seeing some of you over the next quarter. Thank you.

因此，感謝所有 Upstart 團隊提供的結果，並感謝所有與我們在一起的人。我們期待在下個季度見到你們中的一些人。謝謝你。