聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Union Pacific Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer for Union Pacific. Mr. Vena, you may now begin.

您好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）。謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在聯合太平洋公司的網站上找到。現在我很高興向大家介紹你們的東道主，聯合太平洋公司執行長吉姆‧維納先生。維納先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thanks, Rob. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Union Pacific's fourth quarter and full year results. I'm joined in Omaha by our Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Hamann; our Executive Vice President of Marketing Sales, Kenny Rocker; and our Executive Vice President of Operations, Eric Gehringer.

謝謝，羅布。早安，感謝您今天加入我們討論聯合太平洋公司第四季和全年業績。我們的財務長 Jennifer Hamann 與我一起來到奧馬哈；我們的行銷銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker；以及我們的營運執行副總裁 Eric Gehringer。

The Union Pacific team is executing our multiyear strategy to lead the industry in safety, service and operational excellence. Our fourth quarter shows a lot of what's possible and demonstrate that we're on the right path to achieving those goals. We exited 2023 with strong momentum, which gives me great confidence that we have a winning strategy. There's work to do, but we're building the foundation for future success.

聯合太平洋團隊正在執行我們的多年策略，以在安全、服務和卓越營運方面引領產業。我們的第四季展示了許多可能性，並證明我們正走在實現這些目標的正確道路上。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了 2023 年，這讓我對我們的致勝策略充滿信心。雖然還有很多工作要做，但我們正在為未來的成功奠定基礎。

Now let's turn to Slide 3. This morning, Union Pacific reported 2023 fourth quarter net income of $1.7 billion or $2.71 per share. This compares to 2022 fourth quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.67 per share. Fourth quarter operating revenue was flat as increased volumes and core pricing gains were offset by lower fuel surcharge revenue and business mix. Expenses year-over-year were also flat as lower fuel expenses and productivity gains were offset by inflation, volume-related costs and higher casualty expenses.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 3。今天早上，聯合太平洋公司公佈 2023 年第四季淨利為 17 億美元，即每股 2.71 美元。相比之下，2022 年第四季淨利潤為 16 億美元，即每股 2.67 美元。第四季營業收入持平，因為銷售和核心定價收益的增加被燃油附加費收入和業務組合的下降所抵消。費用同比也持平，因為較低的燃料費用和生產率的提高被通貨膨脹、與數量相關的成本和較高的傷亡費用所抵消。

Our fourth quarter operating ratio of 60.9%, improved 10 basis points versus last year. And more importantly, we demonstrated strong sequential OR improvement of 250 basis points from the third quarter. We are taking the right actions to increase the efficiency of our railroad while also improving service for our customers. Key to our strategy is excelling in what we control. We made great progress in those areas this quarter. That provides further proof that we're on the right path to future success.

我們第四季的營運率為 60.9%，比去年提高了 10 個基點。更重要的是，我們展示了與第三季相比強勁的 250 個基點的連續 OR 改善。我們正在採取正確的行動來提高鐵路效率，同時改善為客戶提供的服務。我們策略的關鍵是在我們所控制的領域中表現出色。本季我們在這些領域取得了巨大進展。這進一步證明我們正走在通往未來成功的正確道路上。

So with that, let me hand it over to Jennifer to provide more details on the fourth quarter and full year financials.

因此，讓我將其交給詹妮弗，以提供有關第四季度和全年財務狀況的更多詳細資訊。

Thanks, Jim, and good morning. Let's begin by walking through our fourth quarter income statement on Slide 5. Starting with the top line. Operating revenue of $6.2 billion was flat versus 2022 on a 3% volume increase. Breaking it down further, freight revenue totaled $5.8 billion, up 1%. The biggest driver of freight revenue in the quarter was fuel. Lower year-over-year fuel prices reduced fuel surcharge revenue and impacted freight revenue 375 basis points, as fuel surcharges declined $180 million versus 2022 to $795 million.

謝謝，吉姆，早安。讓我們先瀏覽投影片 5 上的第四季損益表。從頂行開始。營業收入為 62 億美元，與 2022 年持平，但銷量成長 3%。進一步細分，貨運收入總計 58 億美元，成長 1%。本季貨運收入的最大推動力是燃料。燃油價格年減減少了燃油附加費收入，並對貨運收入產生了 375 個基點的影響，燃油附加費較 2022 年下降了 1.8 億美元，降至 7.95 億美元。

Volume growth in the quarter contributed positively, adding 350 basis points to freight revenue. And the combination of price and mix also was positive, increasing freight revenue, 75 basis points as solid core pricing gains were mostly offset by an unfavorable business mix. Intermodal shipments of 5% contributed heavily to the mix dynamic. Wrapping up the top line. Other revenue decreased 13%, driven by lower accessorial and subsidiary revenue.

本季的貨運量成長做出了積極貢獻，貨運收入增加了 350 個基點。價格和組合的組合也很積極，貨運收入增加了 75 個基點，因為穩固的核心定價收益大部分被不利的業務組合所抵消。 5% 的多式聯運運輸量對混合動態做出了重大貢獻。結束頂線。由於輔助和附屬收入減少，其他收入下降了 13%。

Switching to expenses. We provided expense details for both fourth quarter and full year in our appendix slides. But let me hit some of the highlights. Against our 3% volume growth, operating expense of $3.8 million was flat. Digging deeper into a few of the expense lines. Compensation and benefits expense was flat compared to 2022. Fourth quarter workforce levels decreased 2%, while our active TE&Y workforce was flat against the 3% volume growth. This solid level of workforce productivity mostly offset wage inflation as cost per employee only increased 1% in the fourth quarter. Fuel expense in the quarter decreased 11% on a 15% decrease in fuel prices, from $3.70 per gallon to $3.16. Our fuel consumption rate deteriorated 3% as we moved a less fuel-efficient business mix with increased intermodal shipments and fewer coal moves.

轉向支出。我們在附錄幻燈片中提供了第四季度和全年的費用詳細資訊。但讓我來談談一些亮點。與 3% 的銷售成長相比，380 萬美元的營運費用持平。深入研究一些費用項目。與 2022 年相比，薪資和福利支出持平。第四季度的勞動力水平下降了 2%，而我們的活躍 TE&Y 勞動力與 3% 的數量增長持平。勞動力生產力的穩定水準在很大程度上抵消了工資上漲的影響，因為第四季度每位員工的成本僅增加了 1%。由於燃油價格下降 15%，該季度的燃油費用下降了 11%，從每加侖 3.70 美元降至 3.16 美元。我們的燃料消耗率下降了 3%，因為我們採用了燃料效率較低的業務組合，增加了多式聯運，減少了煤炭運輸。

Finally, other expense grew 20% as a result of higher casualty costs and the comparison to 2022, which included insurance recoveries. Coming out of COVID, we had a sizable case backlog that we largely worked through the last couple of years. Importantly, we do not see these elevated expenses as a reflection of a long-term trend, particularly with our intense focus on improving safety. Fourth quarter operating income was flat at $2.4 billion. Below the line, other income increased $16 million due to higher real estate gains. Fourth quarter net income of $1.7 billion and earnings per share of $2.71 both improved 1% versus 2022. Our operating ratio of 60.9% improved 10 basis points year-over-year and 250 basis points sequentially.

最後，由於傷亡成本增加以及與 2022 年相比（其中包括保險賠償），其他費用增加了 20%。疫情結束後，我們積壓了大量案件，這些案件基本上是在過去幾年處理完畢的。重要的是，我們並不認為這些增加的費用反映了長期趨勢，特別是在我們高度關注提高安全性的情況下。第四季營業收入持平，為 24 億美元。線下，由於房地產收益增加，其他收入增加了 1,600 萬美元。第四季淨利潤為 17 億美元，每股收益為 2.71 美元，均較 2022 年增長 1%。我們的營運率為 60.9%，年比提高 10 個基點，環比提高 250 個基點。

Moving to Slide 6 with a quick recap of full year 2023 results. Revenue of $24.1 billion declined 3%, driven by reduced fuel surcharges, business mix and lower volumes, partially offset by core pricing gains. Operating income totaled $9.1 billion and our full year operating ratio of 62.3% deteriorated 220 basis points. Earnings per share of $10.45 decreased 7% versus 2022. And then reflecting the impact of our overall financial results, return on invested capital declined 180 basis points to 15.5%.

前往投影片 6，快速回顧 2023 年全年業績。由於燃油附加費減少、業務組合和銷售下降，收入為 241 億美元，下降了 3%，但部分被核心定價收益所抵消。營業收入總計 91 億美元，全年營業比率為 62.3%，下降了 220 個基點。每股收益為 10.45 美元，較 2022 年下降 7%。投資資本回報率下降 180 個基點至 15.5%，這反映了我們整體財務表現的影響。

Turning to shareholder returns and the balance sheet on Slide 7. Full year 2023 cash from operations totaled $8.4 billion, down roughly $1 billion from 2022. The combination of lower net income and nearly $450 million of labor agreement payments were the main drivers. Free cash flow and our cash flow conversion rate also reflected those impacts. We returned $3.9 billion to shareholders in 2023 through dividends and share repurchases. Our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio finished the year at 3x as we continued to prioritize a strong balance sheet and be A-rated by our 3 credit agencies.

轉向幻燈片7 上的股東回報和資產負債表。2023 年全年營運現金總額為84 億美元，比2022 年減少約10 億美元。淨利潤較低和近4.5 億美元的勞動協議付款是主要推動因素。自由現金流和我們的現金流轉換率也反映了這些影響。 2023 年，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 39 億美元。由於我們繼續優先考慮強大的資產負債表並獲得 3 家信用機構的 A 級評級，我們的調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率在今年結束時達到了 3 倍。

While 2023 was a difficult year, I'm pleased with the progress we've made over the last several months to improve our service and productivity. We believe this performance marks an inflection point as efforts to improve the efficiency of our railroad through safety, service and operational excellence is starting to be reflected in our financials.

雖然 2023 年是艱難的一年，但我對過去幾個月我們在改善服務和生產力方面的進展感到高興。我們相信，這一業績標誌著一個轉折點，因為透過安全、服務和卓越營運來提高鐵路效率的努力已開始反映在我們的財務中。

With that, I'm going to turn it over to Kenny to provide some comments on 2023 and kick off our commentary on 2024.

接下來，我將把它交給 Kenny，對 2023 年提供一些評論，並開始我們對 2024 年的評論。

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning. You just heard from Jennifer that freight revenue was up 1% in the quarter as our volume gains of 3% were partially offset by lower fuel surcharges. So let's jump right into the business teams to recap the market drivers on the revenue side.

謝謝你，詹妮弗，早安。您剛從 Jennifer 那裡聽說，本季度貨運收入增長了 1%，因為我們 3% 的貨運量增長被較低的燃油附加費部分抵消了。因此，讓我們直接進入業務團隊，回顧一下收入方面的市場驅動因素。

Starting with bulk. Revenue for the quarter was flat compared to 2022, driven by a 3% increase in volume, offset by a 2% decrease in average revenue per car. Core pricing gains were more than offset by lower fuel surcharges and the unfavorable impact of low natural gas prices on our index-based coal contracts.

從批量開始。與 2022 年相比，本季營收持平，銷量成長 3%，但被每輛車平均收入下降 2% 所抵消。核心定價收益被較低的燃油附加費以及低天然氣價格對我們基於指數的煤炭合約的不利影響所抵消。

Fertilizer shipments grew compared to 2022 as demand for field application was strong. due to lower nitrogen prices. Grain product shipments were up for the quarter as our team secured new feedstock opportunities for renewable diesel production in Louisana and California. Additionally, ethanol shipments increase with our improved service.

由於現場施肥需求強勁，肥料出貨量較 2022 年成長。由於氮肥價格較低。由於我們的團隊在路易斯安那州和加利福尼亞州獲得了可再生柴油生產的新原料機會，本季度穀物產品出貨量有所增加。此外，隨著我們服務的改善，乙醇出貨量也有所增加。

Lastly, coal continued to be challenged in the fourth quarter, due to mild weather and decreased coal competitiveness from low natural gas prices. Industrial revenue was up 4% in the quarter, driven by a 3% increase in volume. Core pricing gains in the quarter were mostly offset by lower fuel surcharges and a negative mix in volume. Business development in our petroleum and LPG commodity segment contributed to the growth. Demand improved for our plastics business, in both export and domestic markets. However, sand volumes were negatively impacted by softer natural gas prices that reduced drilling in the Eagle Ford Basin and increased utilization of in-basin sand in the DJ Basin.

最後，由於氣候溫和以及天然氣價格低廉導致煤炭競爭力下降，煤炭在第四季持續面臨挑戰。在銷售成長 3% 的推動下，本季工業收入成長 4%。本季的核心定價收益大部分被燃油附加費降低和銷售下降所抵銷。石油和液化石油氣商品領域的業務發展推動了成長。我們的塑膠業務在出口和國內市場的需求都有所改善。然而，天然氣價格疲軟對砂量產生了負面影響，天然氣價格減少了 Eagle Ford 盆地的鑽探活動，並增加了 DJ 盆地盆地砂的利用率。

Premium revenue for the quarter was down 3% on a 4% increase in volume and a 7% decrease in average revenue per car from lower fuel surcharges and truck market pressure. Automotive volumes were negatively impacted by the UAW strike, but those decreases were mostly offset by dealer inventory replenishment and business development wins that I mentioned on the last quarter's call. Intermodal volumes were positive in the quarter, driven by stronger West Coast imports, domestic business development wins and strengthen our Mexico volumes. Now let's start talking about 2024.

本季保費收入下降 3%，銷量增加 4%，而燃油附加費降低和卡車市場壓力導致每輛車平均收入下降 7%。汽車銷售受到美國汽車工人聯合會罷工的負面影響，但這些下降大部分被經銷商庫存補充和我在上季度電話會議中提到的業務發展成果所抵消。受西海岸進口走強、國內業務發展的勝利以及墨西哥貨運量增加的推動，本季多式聯運貨運量呈正增長。現在讓我們開始談2024年。

Here are some key economic indicators that we're watching this year on Slide 10. These are S&P's forecasts from their January report, and you'll notice that it shows a mixed picture for 2024. Industrial production looks to be flat. Housing starts are expected to remain challenged, but demand for auto continues to be strong.

以下是我們今年在投影片 10 上關注的一些關鍵經濟指標。這些是標準普爾 1 月報告中的預測，您會注意到它顯示 2024 年的情況好壞參半。工業生產看起來持平。新屋開工預計仍將面臨挑戰，但汽車需求依然強勁。

Turning to Slide 11. Here is our 2024 outlook as we see it today for the key markets we serve. Starting with bulk. We anticipate continued challenges in coal as natural gas futures remain volatile and inventories are high. Domestic grain is relatively stable, but we are keeping a watchful eye on export demand. On a brighter note, we expect fertilizer to be strong as repair that Canpotex Portland facility are now complete and commodity prices remain competitive, moving into the spring season. And growth within biofuels continues to be driven by a strong demand outlook, combined with a heavy focus on capturing new business, including incremental volumes secured from Minnesota and Iowa origins.

轉向幻燈片 11。這是我們今天對我們服務的主要市場的 2024 年展望。從批量開始。由於天然氣期貨持續波動且庫存較高，我們預期煤炭產業將繼續面臨挑戰。國內糧食相對穩定，但我們密切注意出口需求。樂觀的一面是，隨著 Canpotex 波特蘭工廠的修復工作現已完成，化肥價格將保持強勁，進入春季後大宗商品價格仍具有競爭力。強勁的需求前景以及對新業務的高度重視，包括來自明尼蘇達州和愛荷華州的增量產量，繼續推動生物燃料的成長。

Moving on to Industrial. The construction market will be challenged to exceed last year's record volumes as we're seeing softness in parts of the market. However, we foresee the petroleum and petrochem market remaining favorable due to our focus on business development.

轉向工業。由於我們看到部分市場疲軟，建築市場將面臨超過去年創紀錄數量的挑戰。然而，由於我們專注於業務發展，我們預期石油和石化市場仍然有利。

And finally, for premium on the international intermodal side. We expect the market to improve year-over-year, but a contract we lost earlier in 2023 will negatively impact our 2024 volumes. On the domestic side, we are staying close with our customers who have indicated that they'll see a soft start to the year. Nonetheless, our strong service product sets us up to handle market demand. And for automotive, we will see strength in this market with improved OEM production and business development wins.

最後，國際聯運方面的溢價。我們預計市場將年比改善，但我們在 2023 年初失去的合約將對我們 2024 年的銷售量產生負面影響。在國內方面，我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，他們表示今年將迎來良好的開局。儘管如此，我們強大的服務產品使我們能夠滿足市場需求。對於汽車產業，我們將看到該市場的實力，隨著 OEM 生產的改善和業務發展的勝利。

In summary. The economic environment continues to look muted in 2024, particularly in the first half. We're off to a floor start in January based on severe winter storms and market challenges we're seeing in coal and intermodal. But I am encouraged that we expect to see growth in some markets with our strong focus on business development. For the second half, we are well-prepared to handle the demand if the market and economy improves. We continue to make significant capital investments on both carload and intermodal front to capture more freight over the (inaudible).

總之。 2024 年，經濟環境將持續低迷，尤其是上半年。由於嚴重的冬季風暴以及我們在煤炭和多式聯運方面看到的市場挑戰，我們將於一月份啟動。但令我感到鼓舞的是，我們預計在一些市場上會看到成長，因為我們高度重視業務發展。下半年，如果市場和經濟好轉，我們已做好充分準備來應對需求。我們繼續在整車和多式聯運方面進行大量資本投資，以捕獲更多的貨運量（聽不清楚）。

Those investments, along with our unmatched service offerings and improved service products from Eric's team create a winning environment for our customers. I'm excited for the opportunities in front of us, and our commercial team is ready to help our customers win in the marketplace.

這些投資以及我們無與倫比的服務產品和埃里克團隊改進的服務產品為我們的客戶創造了一個獲勝的環境。我對我們面前的機會感到興奮，我們的商業團隊已準備好幫助我們的客戶在市場上獲勝。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

接下來，我會將其交給 Eric 來審查我們的營運績效。

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Moving to Slide 13. To start, I want to express my appreciation to the team for their relentless focus on improving our service product and driving network efficiency. It's thanks to their efforts that our network showed tremendous fluidity and reliability during the fourth quarter.

謝謝你，肯尼，早安。轉到投影片 13。首先，我要向團隊表示感謝，感謝他們堅持不懈地致力於改進我們的服務產品和提高網路效率。正是由於他們的努力，我們的網路在第四季度表現出了巨大的流動性和可靠性。

Freight car velocity improved 14% to 217 miles per day compared to fourth quarter 2022. Increased train velocity and a reduction in terminal dwell drove that performance.

與 2022 年第四季相比，貨車速度提高了 14%，達到每天 217 英里。火車速度的提高和終點站停留時間的減少推動了這一業績。

Service was strong during the quarter as we saw a significant 12-point improvement in both intermodal and manifest and auto trip plan compliance. In addition to trip plan compliance, we have hundreds of customer-specific performance metrics that also showed great improvement throughout the quarter. Most importantly, we are delivering the service we sold to our customers, which is critical to our long-term growth strategy.

本季服務表現強勁，我們發現聯運、艙單和汽車出行計畫合規性顯著提高了 12 個百分點。除了旅行計畫合規性之外，我們還有數百個特定於客戶的績效指標，這些指標在整個季度也顯示出巨大的改善。最重要的是，我們正在向客戶提供我們銷售的服務，這對我們的長期成長策略至關重要。

While winter is here and has certainly brought its challenges, the railroad overall is very healthy, and I'm confident the team will continue its positive momentum. Safety continues to be the foundation of everything we do. During the quarter, we delivered improved derailment performance through our investments in technology and process. We remain focused on the critical actions that drive real change. So everyone goes home safely each day.

雖然冬天來了，肯定帶來了挑戰，但鐵路整體非常健康，我相信團隊將繼續保持積極的勢頭。安全仍然是我們所做一切的基礎。本季度，我們透過對技術和流程的投資，改善了脫軌性能。我們仍然專注於推動真正改變的關鍵行動。這樣大家每天都能平安回家。

Now let's review our key efficiency metrics for the quarter on Slide 14. During the fourth quarter, we saw year-over-year improvement across all of our efficiency metrics. Locomotive productivity improved 14% versus fourth quarter 2022 and 9% sequentially as we continue to identify and execute on opportunities to utilize the fleet more efficiently. Throughout the second half of 2023, we stored nearly 500 units from our operable fleet.

現在讓我們回顧一下投影片 14 上本季的關鍵效率指標。在第四季度，我們看到所有效率指標均較去年同期有所改善。隨著我們繼續尋找和執行更有效地利用機隊的機會，機車生產力較 2022 年第四季提高了 14%，環比提高了 9%。 2023 年下半年，我們儲存了可營運車隊中的近 500 台設備。

Workforce productivity improved 4% compared to fourth quarter 2022. With the strong crew base, we are focused on effectively managing workforce levels to the demand of the business. However, challenges do remain from scheduled work agreements that, in the near term, require additional employees. Train length improved 2% compared to fourth quarter 2022 as we continue to remove car touch points from the system. In total, throughout 2023, we were successful in extending train length as improvements in the second half more than offset the declines in intermodal shipments.

與 2022 年第四季相比，員工生產力提高了 4%。憑藉強大的員工基礎，我們專注於有效管理員工水準以滿足業務需求。然而，短期內需要額外員工的預定工作協議仍存在挑戰。由於我們繼續從系統中刪除車廂接觸點，與 2022 年第四季相比，列車長度增加了 2%。總的來說，2023 年全年，我們成功延長了列車長度，因為下半年的改善抵消了多式聯運貨運量的下降。

We remain persistent in our focus on train length to drive productivity while providing a better service product to our customers. As we move into 2024, we will continue to transform our railroad through a variety of technology initiatives and targeted capital investments designed to further improve safety, improve our service product enhanced resource utilization and ultimately lower our cost structure.

我們始終堅持對列車長度的關注，以提高生產力，同時為客戶提供更好的服務產品。進入 2024 年，我們將繼續透過各種技術舉措和有針對性的資本投資來改造我們的鐵路，旨在進一步提高安全性、改善我們的服務產品、增強資源利用率並最終降低我們的成本結構。

So to wrap up, let's review our capital outlook for 2024 on Slide 15. We are targeting capital spending of $3.4 billion in 2024. Similar to 2023, we will support safe and productive operations by investing in our infrastructure and renewing our older assets. This includes modernizing locomotives and acquiring freight cars to support replacement and growth opportunities.

最後，讓我們回顧一下投影片15 上的2024 年資本前景。我們的目標是2024 年資本支出為34 億美元。與2023 年類似，我們將透過投資基礎設施和更新舊資產來支持安全性和生產性營運.這包括對機車進行現代化改造和採購貨車以支持更換和成長機會。

We are also investing in technology, terminal and mainline capacity projects to improve productivity. Specific to our technology investments, we recently cut over NetControl, replacing our 50-year-old transportation management system. This cutover positions us to use real-time analytics to open new capabilities for Union Pacific and our customers. Great work, led by our technology team. On the growth front, we will continue to invest in projects that expand our intermodal footprint and support business development in targeted high-growth areas such as Inland Empire, Kansas City and Phoenix, to name a few.

我們也投資技術、碼頭和幹線產能項目，以提高生產力。具體到我們的技術投資，我們最近放棄了 NetControl，取代了 50 年歷史的運輸管理系統。此次轉換使我們能夠利用即時分析為聯合太平洋公司和我們的客戶開闢新功能。在我們的技術團隊的領導下，做得很好。在成長方面，我們將繼續投資於擴大我們多式聯運業務的項目，並支持內陸帝國、堪薩斯城和鳳凰城等目標高成長地區的業務發展。

So with that, I'll turn it back to Jennifer to lay out our initial financial thoughts for 2024.

因此，我將把它轉回給 Jennifer，闡述我們對 2024 年的初步財務想法。

Thanks, Eric. Turning to Slide 17. Let me start by pointing out that we added a new appendix slide that contains several of the 2024 modeling assumptions that should be helpful to everyone in framing our current expectations. As you heard from Kenny, it's a difficult market to forecast, as economic indicators show a muted and uncertain economy, throwing a couple of other variables such as what the Fed might or might not do with interest rates and a presidential election, and we've got an interesting year ahead.

謝謝，埃里克。轉向投影片 17。首先讓我指出，我們新增了一張新的附錄投影片，其中包含一些 2024 年建模假設，這些假設應該對每個人制定我們目前的期望有所幫助。正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，這是一個很難預測的市場，因為經濟指標顯示經濟低迷且不確定，並引發了一些其他變量，例如美聯儲可能會或可能不會對利率和總統選舉採取什麼行動，我們'未來的一年將會很有趣。

On top of the macro pressures, lower coal demand and some lost international intermodal business are expected to negatively impact our volume. And as you've seen in the weekly carload data, January is off to a slow start as cold temperatures across our system impacted operations and volume, with first quarter volume down 9% year-to-date. I am confident, however, that our strong and improving service product will allow us to capture available demand.

除了宏觀壓力外，煤炭需求下降和一些國際多式聯運業務的損失預計將對我們的銷售產生負面影響。正如您在每週的裝車量數據中看到的那樣，由於我們系統的低溫影響了營運和銷量，1 月份開局緩慢，第一季的銷量較年初下降了 9%。然而，我相信，我們強大且不斷改進的服務產品將使我們能夠抓住可用的需求。

We clearly demonstrated that in the fourth quarter as we took advantage of the unexpected but short-term surge in intermodal. More certainly in the economy is our expectation to generate pricing dollars, in excess of inflation dollars even with ongoing headwinds from certain intermodal contracts. With those pressures, we do not expect price to be accretive to margins in this year.

我們在第四季度清楚地證明了這一點，因為我們利用了多式聯運意外但短期的激增。在經濟中更確定的是，即使某些多式聯運合約持續存在阻力，我們仍期望產生超過通膨美元的定價美元。面對這些壓力，我們預期今年的價格不會增加利潤。

Key for UP in 2024 is our ability to control the controllables by driving a strong safety culture, making ongoing service gains and improving network efficiency. We're confident that regardless of the demand environment, we will take the necessary actions to run a more efficient network.

UP 到 2024 年的關鍵是我們有能力透過推動強大的安全文化來控制可控因素，實現持續的服務效益並提高網路效率。我們相信，無論需求環境如何，我們都將採取必要的行動來運作更有效率的網路。

Finally, with capital allocation. There is no change to our long-term strategy. We are investing $3.4 billion back into the railroad as Eric detailed. Next, we prioritize our industry-leading dividend payout and then excess cash will be returned to shareholders through share repurchases. However, given first quarter debt maturities of $1.3 billion, we will not be repurchasing shares in the first quarter. It's always difficult in late January to make predictions for the year ahead, and this year is no different. There are currently ongoing challenges from a macro and inflationary perspective. What is very encouraging though, as we start out 2024 is our momentum, which you've heard us mention several times today. We demonstrated with our fourth quarter performance, what's possible and we look forward to further improvement in the year ahead.

最後是資本配置。我們的長期策略沒有改變。正如艾瑞克詳細介紹的那樣，我們將向鐵路投資 34 億美元。接下來，我們優先考慮業界領先的股息支付，然後透過股票回購將多餘的現金回饋給股東。然而，鑑於第一季 13 億美元的債務到期，我們不會在第一季回購股票。一月下旬總是很難對未來一年做出預測，今年也不例外。從宏觀和通膨角度來看，目前仍面臨挑戰。不過，非常令人鼓舞的是，在 2024 年伊始，我們的動力就出現了，您今天已經多次聽到我們提到這一點。我們用第四季度的業績證明了一切的可能性，我們期待來年的進一步改進。

With that, let me turn it back to Jim.

說到這裡，讓我把話題轉回吉姆身上。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let's turn to Slide 19. Before we get to your questions, I'd like to quickly summarize what you've heard from our team. Kenny outlined our view on the upcoming year. Our volume outlook today reflects headwinds from lost business, coal demand and relatively soft economic forecast. Much of that is out of our control. We are mitigating these impacts through business development and value creation by providing great service to our customers.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我們轉向投影片 19。在回答您的問題之前，我想快速總結一下您從我們團隊聽到的內容。肯尼概述了我們對來年的看法。我們今天的銷售展望反映了業務損失、煤炭需求和相對疲軟的經濟預測帶來的不利因素。其中大部分是我們無法控制的。我們正在透過為客戶提供優質服務來發展業務和創造價值，從而減輕這些影響。

Eric described the progress we've made to return our service levels to industry best. While there's work to do, the team made consistent improvement through the quarter to exit in a very fluid state. Obviously, winter is here, but that's part of railroading. I judge our success by how we minimize the impact on our customers and how quickly we recover the network. So far, we've grown -- we've shown great resiliency.

艾瑞克（Eric）描述了我們在使服務水準恢復到行業最佳水準方面所取得的進展。雖然還有很多工作要做，但團隊在整個季度中取得了持續的進步，以非常流暢的狀態退出。顯然，冬天來了，但這是鐵路運輸的一部分。我判斷我們是否成功的標準是我們如何最大限度地減少對客戶的影響以及我們恢復網路的速度。到目前為止，我們已經成長——我們表現出了極大的韌性。

Finally, as Jennifer laid out, our productivity and pricing gains will be key to overcoming ongoing inflationary pressures in 2024 as well as the soft economy. While many unknowns remain, I'm confident we'll succeed in the areas we control. We've got plenty of opportunities this year to improve safety, service and operational excellence. As you heard me say in October, I came back to Union Pacific to win. My vision and the opportunity I see for this company has not changed. We have the right team and strategy in place to grow this road long term, and I'm very confident we'll see a better Union Pacific in the future.

最後，正如 Jennifer 所指出的，我們的生產力和定價收益將是克服 2024 年持續通膨壓力以及疲軟經濟的關鍵。儘管仍有許多未知因素，但我相信我們將在我們控制的領域中取得成功。今年我們有很多機會來提高安全性、服務和卓越營運。正如你在十月聽到我說的那樣，我回到聯合太平洋是為了獲勝。我對這家公司的願景和機會沒有改變。我們擁有正確的團隊和策略來長期發展這條道路，我非常有信心我們將來會看到一個更好的聯合太平洋公司。

We're now ready to take your questions. Rob?

我們現在準備好回答您的問題。搶？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today is from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe if I could ask just sort of the outlook for 2024. As you sit here, it sounds like the muted macro environment is keeping you cautious. But I guess when you think about the opportunities that you have, can volume be up this year? I know some of the macro indicators that you highlighted are muted, but they are still positive. So curious about volume growth. And I guess, in that context with pricing maybe not necessarily being accretive to margin, is there enough in that volume and some of the cost efficiencies that you guys are working on to get margin expansion?

也許我可以問一下 2024 年的前景。當您坐在這裡時，聽起來低迷的宏觀環境讓您保持謹慎。但我想當你考慮你所擁有的機會時，今年的銷量會增加嗎？我知道你強調的一些宏觀指標已經減弱，但它們仍然是正面的。對銷量成長感到好奇。我想，在定價可能不一定會增加利潤的情況下，你們正在努力提高利潤率的數量和成本效率是否足夠？

So Chris, maybe let me start and then Kenny can give you some more color. I mean, we're just not going to give you a number in terms of what we think can happen with volumes because of what you yourself said, there's just a lot of uncertainty. And we just don't think it's prudent sitting here at the end of January to give you some sort of a forecast, based on hopes for a second half recovery. Do we hope that, that will happen and are we going to work diligently to move every piece of business that's there? Absolutely.

克里斯，也許讓我開始，然後肯尼可以給你更多的色彩。我的意思是，我們不會向您提供我們認為銷售可能發生的情況的數字，因為您自己說過，存在著許多不確定性。我們認為一月底在這裡根據下半年復甦的希望給大家做出某種預測是不明智的。我們是否希望這種情況發生？我們是否會努力工作以推動那裡的每一項業務？絕對地。

And I think you really saw what the network can do with our fourth quarter performance. But we just need to see a little more certainty. And hopefully, that plays out through the year, and we can provide that. But sitting here today, we just don't see that. But Kenny, maybe talk about your margin.

我認為您確實看到了網絡對我們第四季度業績的影響。但我們只需要看到更多的確定性。希望這一點能夠在這一年中發揮作用，我們可以做到這一點。但今天坐在這裡，我們只是看不到這一點。但是肯尼，也許談談你的利潤。

I talked about it in my opening comments, it's a mixed bag of opportunities that are in front of us. we feel really good about the biofuels market. That market is growing. Demand is growing. We're capturing business in those markets. On the industrial side, we've had some record year on the construction side. Still be a strong year, but as we are coming out of the gate with weather, that's going to be a little bit challenged for us.

我在開場白中談到了這一點，擺在我們面前的是一個好壞參半的機會。我們對生物燃料市場感覺非常好。這個市場正在成長。需求正在成長。我們正在這些市場上搶佔業務。在工業方面，我們在建築方面取得了創紀錄的一年。仍然是強勁的一年，但隨著天氣的影響，我們將面臨一些挑戰。

We feel really good about our petrochem business and wins that we've had from a business development perspective. On the petroleum and ALPG side, those are all positive for us. On our premium business, again, those are really economic driven. And so we'll be looking to see what happens with demand overall. I talked about the international intermodal side and the loss there. We feel really encouraged by our ability to win on the auto side, and you heard us talk about both wagon wind and last quarter. And so is there a lot of demand there and the forecast for growth there. We really feel good about that market.

我們對我們的石化業務感到非常滿意，並且從業務發展的角度來看我們取得了勝利。在石油和液化石油氣方面，這些對我們來說都是正面的。在我們的高端業務上，這些都是真正的經濟驅動的。因此，我們將關注整體需求的變化。我談到了國際聯運方面以及那裡的損失。我們對我們在汽車方面獲勝的能力感到非常鼓舞，你聽到我們談論貨車風和上個季度。那裡有大量的需求和成長的預測嗎？我們對這個市場真的感覺很好。

Anything on the margins?

邊緣有什麼東西嗎？

I'm sorry?

對不起？

Margins.

邊距。

Oh, on Margins. Again, I'm not -- this might become a broken record, .I hope not. But I mean we are not going to give the guidance. I mean we're going to do everything we can as much as we can. And again, you saw what we did in the fourth quarter. But every kind of other guidance I would give is going to be predicated on what I think is going to happen with volumes, and we just don't have that clarity. And I don't think it's prudent to do that sitting here today.

哦，關於邊距。再說一次，我不是——這可能會成為一個打破的記錄，我希望不會。但我的意思是我們不會提供指導。我的意思是我們將盡我們所能。再說一次，你看到了我們在第四季所做的事情。但我給出的每一種其他指導都將取決於我認為銷量將會發生的情況，而我們只是沒有那麼明確。我認為今天坐在這裡這樣做並不明智。

Chris, let me just maybe just try to put this all into a box of the way we're thinking. It's very difficult for us to look forward and say this is exactly the way the year is going to go. More Important to me and the team is, what have we done operationally, and what are we doing to provide Kenny and the entire team, the capability to go out there and maximize what's available for us and what we can bring on to this railroad.

克里斯，讓我嘗試將這一切放入我們思考的方式的盒子中。我們很難展望未來並說這正是今年的發展方向。對我和團隊來說更重要的是，我們在運營方面做了什麼，以及我們正在做什麼來為肯尼和整個團隊提供走出去並最大限度地利用我們的能力以及我們能為這條鐵路帶來的東西的能力。

And for me, that's the single most important thing. I think, what we've shown is the capability to flex up. We have the assets to be able to flex up. We have the capacity to be able to flex up. And if we continue to drive the efficiency of the railroad, which I expect we will, then what we do is we win in the marketplace. And whatever is out there, we're going to compete against everybody else, trucks and other railroads, and we think we have a winning model. So that's the challenge we have. And it would be truly, it would be a mistake for us to come out and say, "I can't tell what's going to happen," like Jennifer pointed out with the inputs and the effects from interest rates and everything else that's happening in the economy. But I'm very comfortable that we are going to maximize what's available for Union Pacific and when.

對我來說，這是最重要的事。我認為，我們所展現的是靈活應變的能力。我們擁有能夠靈活運用的資產。我們有能力靈活應對。如果我們繼續提高鐵路的效率（我希望我們會這樣做），那麼我們所做的就是在市場上獲勝。無論外面有什麼，我們都將與其他人競爭，包括卡車和其他鐵路，我們認為我們有一個獲勝的模式。這就是我們面臨的挑戰。確實，我們站出來說“我不知道會發生什麼”，這將是一個錯誤，就像詹妮弗指出的那樣，利率和其他正在發生的事情的投入和影響經濟。但我很高興我們將最大限度地為聯合太平洋航空​​提供可用的資源和時間。

Our next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Walter Spracklin。

On the intermodal side. I know there was a business loss there. And -- but looking at some of the statistics in L.A. Long Beach, there seems to be a really good uptick in volumes into those regions or that region. Red Sea impact, perhaps East Coast is down. Ken, are you seeing that there is new business coming that way? And could that be a nice offset to any business loss or -- could it create an opportunity for a business -- more business wins as more volume shifts to LA Long Beach? And perhaps the fluidity of LA Long Beach, is that keeping pace with the new volume that's coming its way.

在聯運方面。我知道那裡有生意損失。而且——但是看看洛杉磯長灘的一些統計數據，這些地區或那個地區的交易量似乎確實有了很大的增長。紅海的影響，也許東海岸已經下降了。肯，你看到那邊有新業務了嗎？這是否可以很好地抵消任何業務損失，或者——它是否可以為企業創造機會——隨著更多的銷售轉移到洛杉磯長灘，更多的業務會贏得更多業務？也許洛杉磯長灘的流動性在於與即將推出的新卷保持同步。

Yes. So thank you, Walter. We've spent a lot of time looking at the global supply chains in the canal and so forth. I'll tell you right now in the near term, we haven't seen any significant shift. We've been talking to our -- the vessel carrier owners. We know they put in tariffs, our customers have put in tariffs to go over the Panama canal, for example. And so we've been working with them to move as much as we can with the network that we have; with the match back opportunities that we have; with the reload opportunities that we have; with the new products that we have on the -- with the Houston lines that Eric has given us; to give our customers every reason to go to the West Coast. So what we have seen is we are seeing more going IPI, we have a very efficient service network to accomplish that. We're happy about the customers that we have that have been able to grow in that market. And then finally, we have a great network where the service, we're able to capture that and get all of that business that's out there.

是的。謝謝你，沃特。我們花了很多時間研究運河等方面的全球供應鏈。我現在就告訴你，短期內我們還沒有看到任何重大轉變。我們一直在與我們的承運人船東進行交談。我們知道他們徵收了關稅，例如，我們的客戶已經對通過巴拿馬運河徵收了關稅。因此，我們一直在與他們合作，利用我們現有的網路盡可能地進行移動；以及我們擁有的反擊機會；我們擁有重新加載的機會；我們的新產品——艾瑞克給我們的休士頓系列；為我們的客戶提供前往西海岸的充分理由。所以我們看到的是，我們看到越來越多的 IPI，我們有一個非常有效率的服務網路來實現這一點。我們對能夠在該市場中成長的客戶感到高興。最後，我們擁有一個出色的服務網絡，我們能夠捕獲該服務並獲得所有現有業務。

And as we think about that because to your point, you can't predict the future with entire clarity. It's another reminder, Walter, of the fact that when we talk about having a buffer, and you look at what we did in the fourth quarter, we generated the ability to make sure we have that buffer. That buffer in locomotives, that buffer in railcars positioned in L.A. So in the event the volume is there, we've supported Kenny's team to be able to actually capture it.

當我們思考這個問題時，因為就你的觀點而言，你無法完全清晰地預測未來。沃爾特，這再次提醒我們，當我們談論緩衝時，你看看我們在第四季度所做的事情，我們有能力確保我們擁有緩衝。機車中的緩衝區，位於洛杉磯的軌道車中的緩衝區。因此，如果存在體積，我們支持肯尼的團隊能夠實際捕獲它。

And the fluidity in the terminals right now. Is that -- how would you assess that?

以及現在航站的流動性。那是──你會如何評價？

Very fluid. As you saw in the fourth quarter, 14% improvement in car velocity doesn't come unless you've got very fluid operations. Now to Jim's point, are there opportunities? Of course, there are. In fact, I'll talk about those as we go through this. But overall, right now, yes, very fluid.

非常流暢。正如您在第四季度所看到的，除非您的營運非常流暢，否則汽車速度不會提高 14%。現在談談吉姆的觀點，有機會嗎？當然有。事實上，我會​​在討論這個問題時討論這些。但總的來說，現在，是的，非常不穩定。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自斯科特集團和沃爾夫研究公司。

So it seems like you're framing this as there's things we can control and things we can't control. It strikes me that over time, the industry has been able to have some control over price. And you're talking about inflation up 5%. And right now, yield ex fuels is only up 1%, right? So it just seems we need more price. Can we get more price? I don't know. How do we think about that?

因此，您似乎將其視為我們可以控制的事情和我們無法控制的事情。讓我印象深刻的是，隨著時間的推移，該行業已經能夠對價格進行一定的控制。你說的是通貨膨脹率上升 5%。目前，扣除燃料後的收益率僅上漲了 1%，對吧？所以看來我們需要更多的價格。我們能得到更多的價格嗎？我不知道。我們對此有何看法？

And then could you just clarify like this international intermodal contract. When did we lose that? Because it sounded like it happened sometime in '23, but we just -- we're seeing really good intermodal growth. So I'm a little confused with why we're flagging this as such a big issue right now.

然後你能像國際聯運合約一樣澄清嗎？我們什麼時候失去它了？因為這聽起來像是發生在 23 年的某個時候，但我們只是——我們看到了非常好的多式聯運增長。所以我有點困惑為什麼我們現在要把這個問題標記為一個大問題。

Scott, I got both of those. Thank you. So first of all, you're exactly right. Prices are controllable. And let me make this clear. It's not like we are jumped up here and wait until January 1 to look at price. We've been going down this path here for a few months. You've heard Jennifer and I say that we have a set amount, call it, almost half that we can touch from a pricing standpoint. Our commercial team has really been very effective sitting down with customers; talking to them about the improved service product; talking to them about our increased inflationary pressures that we saw from the labor side; and how Eric is leveraging that to improve the service products that we give them.

斯科特，這兩樣我都有。謝謝。所以首先，你是完全正確的。價格可控。讓我澄清這一點。我們並不是急著等到 1 月 1 日才看價格。我們已經沿著這條路走了好幾個月了。你聽詹妮弗和我說過，我們有一個固定的數量，從定價的角度來看，幾乎是我們可以觸及的一半。我們的商務團隊在與客戶面對面交流時確實非常有效率；與他們談論改進的服務產品；與他們談論我們從勞動力方面看到的通膨壓力增加；以及埃里克如何利用這一點來改進我們為他們提供的服務產品。

They're seeing the same input. They're seeing the same increases. I've been meeting with customers. And so they know that. So yes, we control a portion of that and so we've been very focused on articulating that story. I think you had a question on the international side. And yes, you're correct. We lost some of that earlier in the year, last year. The bulk of that will still be working through in 2024.

他們看到相同的輸入。他們看到了同樣的成長。我一直在與客戶會面。所以他們知道這一點。所以，是的，我們控制了其中的一部分，所以我們一直非常專注於闡明這個故事。我認為你有一個國際方面的問題。是的，你是對的。去年早些時候，我們失去了一些。其中大部分工作到 2024 年仍將完成。

But just to your question, Scott, I think what Kenny is talking about with that loss, that kind of goes to our discipline when it comes to price and making sure that the business that's on our railroad is running at acceptable margins. Sometimes that doesn't happen and we might lose a piece of business.

但就你的問題而言，史考特，我認為肯尼所說的損失是什麼，這符合我們在價格方面的紀律，並確保我們鐵路上的業務以可接受的利潤率運作。有時這種情況不會發生，我們可能會失去一部分業務。

Yes. I mean with the service product, when the investments that you heard Eric talk about this morning, the margins have to be acceptable to be on the network.

是的。我的意思是，對於服務產品，當你今天早上聽到埃里克談論的投資時，網路上的利潤必須是可以接受的。

Well, I hate to always recap these, and I won't. But let me recap this, Scott, for you. So inflation when I was the first call that I had in October, I was pretty clear that we are going to deal with the inflationary pressure that is presented for us that we have to tackle, and we're doing it 2 ways. We are dealing with it on a price -- from the price side, and we're also dealing with it on the efficiency side. And I think we have a clear view. This is not a short-term 3 months, you can fix it on the price side. And even on the efficiency side, we've seen improvements in efficiency, and you can see that from the number. And I think there's more available for us on the efficiency side from how we operate our trains, the fluidity and the terminals, how we use our people, and we did a really good job. The team did a fantastic job in the fourth quarter, and I expect it to get better as we go through the year.

好吧，我討厭總是重述這些，我也不會。但斯科特，讓我為你回顧一下這一點。因此，當我在 10 月第一次接到通膨電話時，我非常清楚，我們將應對我們必須應對的通膨壓力，我們正在透過兩種方式做到這一點。我們正在從價格方面來處理它——從價格方面，我們也在效率方面來處理它。我認為我們有一個清晰的觀點。這不是短期的3個月，可以在價格方面解決。即使在效率方面，我們也看到了效率的提高，你可以從數字中看到這一點。我認為，在效率方面，我們還有更多可以利用的地方，包括我們如何運作火車、流動性和航站樓、我們如何使用我們的員工，而且我們做得非常好。該團隊在第四季度的表現非常出色，我預計今年會變得更好。

So those 2 things we're tackling head on. We're not being shy about it. We're being straight. I've met with a lot of customers in groups and in small and I've been clear about what the pressures are and what we're going to do about it moving forward. But at the end, we want our customers to win in the marketplace. We want them to win. So we're being smart about how we price and what level. And it's different for different marketplaces, and that's how we're handling it. But I'm excited. I think we overcome this year, by the end of the year, we'll see ourselves in a different position.

所以我們正在正面解決這兩件事。我們並不對此感到害羞。我們是直的。我見過很多團體和小規模的客戶，我很清楚壓力是什麼，以及我們將如何應對。但最終，我們希望我們的客戶在市場上獲勝。我們希望他們獲勝。因此，我們對定價方式和定價水準非常明智。不同的市場有不同的情況，這就是我們的處理方式。但我很興奮。我認為我們克服了今年的困難，到年底，我們將看到自己處於不同的位置。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

Jim, you've seen -- you realized a very fast and positive response in terms of the rail network operations since you've been at UP. Where do you think you're at, in terms of kind of further improvements? So I don't know if you want to look at like locomotives, what the active fleet is and where it can go to. Maybe if you could comment a little bit on headcount. I think that the headcount was down pretty meaningfully sequentially. So I guess I'm just trying to get a sense of kind of are we at the stable level now after that really quick improvement? Or our head count and active locomotive fleet going to have further steps down as we go into '24?

Jim，您已經看到，自從您加入 UP 以來，您就意識到鐵路網絡運營方面得到了非常快速和積極的響應。您認為在進一步改進方面您處於什麼位置？所以我不知道你是否想像機車一樣看看現役車隊是什麼以及它可以去哪裡。也許您可以對員工人數發表一些評論。我認為員工人數連續大幅下降。所以我想我只是想了解一下，在經歷瞭如此快速的改進之後，我們現在是否處於穩定的水平？或者當我們進入 24 世紀時，我們的員工數量和活躍的機車車隊將進一步減少？

Listen, thanks for the question. So the way I see it is this. I think there's more on the railroad to become more efficient. And the concentration is a little different than the last time I was here and a little different than what we just were able to do in the fourth quarter. I think there's opportunity in speed and car velocity that will help us be able to move the railcars faster, use a few less locomotives and be able to keep the network more fluid. But the real big piece for us and what we're going to concentrate on, and we think there's a capability to be much better is how fast we operate our terminals, and the fluidity through the terminals to be able to have the products. Now it's just not in the transportation piece. We are looking at ways on the engineering side, how we do maintenance, how we do capital work on the mechanical side, how we -- what it costs us to perform overhauls. Every piece of the network is still there. So I think there's still more left on that piece to be able to do.

聽著，謝謝你的提問。所以我的看法是這樣的。我認為鐵路還需要採取更多措施來提高效率。注意力與我上次來這裡時有所不同，也與我們在第四季度所做的有所不同。我認為速度和車輛速度方面存在機會，這將幫助我們能夠更快地移動軌道車，使用更少的機車，並能夠保持網路更加流暢。但對我們來說，真正重要的部分以及我們將集中精力的，我們認為有能力做得更好的是我們操作終端的速度，以及透過終端獲得產品的流動性。現在它已經不在運送部分了。我們正在尋找工程方面的方法，我們如何進行維護，我們如何在機械方面進行資本工作，我們如何 - 我們進行大修的成本是多少。網路的每個部分仍然存在。所以我認為這件作品還有更多工作要做。

Can you offer a thought on how that translates to head count? Do we think head count goes down further? Or is it kind of stable at current level?

您能否談談這如何轉化為員工人數？我們認為員工人數會進一步減少嗎？或者說在目前的水平上是否穩定？

Well, the challenge we have with head count is we signed some collective agreements and you live with what was given to you. And some of those collective agreements put pressure on headcount. They put pressure on from both the time off, the sick benefit time off that we provided. We had some weekends when the football game were on that, that we had an extra 15%, 20% people all got sick at the same time. So we need to be able to figure out how to deal with that, and we'll do that as we move ahead. It must have been a real bad weekend, right at the same time as one of the Playoff games was on. But at the end of the day, those are stumbling those are blocks that we have to go over this year.

嗯，我們在人數方面面臨的挑戰是我們簽署了一些集體協議，而你接受了給你的東西。其中一些集體協議給員工人數帶來了壓力。他們從我們提供的休假和病假福利休假中施加了壓力。我們有一些週末，當足球比賽進行時，我們有額外的 15%、20% 的人同時生病。因此，我們需要弄清楚如何處理這個問題，我們將在前進的過程中做到這一點。這肯定是一個非常糟糕的周末，就在一場季後賽正在進行的同時。但歸根究底，這些都是我們今年必須克服的障礙。

And what we showed in the fourth quarter is with all that, all the pluses and all the headwinds we had on headcount, we were able to keep the headcount and reduce it overall in the company. And there is no reason for us not to continue to do that. We will look for every opportunity. And sorry, I can't give you a specific number because this is a moving target as we move ahead. We're implementing new agreements through this year. So it will be noisy. It won't be a straight tangent down. The slope won't be perfect. It will be a little up and down, but I'm very comfortable that we have the programs, the processes in place to be able to correct that and have the way, which is less people handling the same amount of business.

我們在第四季度所展示的是，儘管我們在員工數量上遇到了所有的優勢和所有的不利因素，但我們能夠保持員工數量並減少公司的整體員工數量。我們沒有理由不繼續這樣做。我們將尋找每一個機會。抱歉，我無法給您具體的數字，因為隨著我們的前進，這是一個不斷變化的目標。今年我們正在實施新協議。所以會很吵。它不會是一條直線向下的切線。斜坡不會是完美的。會有一些起伏，但我很高興我們有適當的計劃和流程來糾正這個問題，並且有辦法，用更少的人處理相同數量的業務。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

I was going to ask this anyway. I guess it's a perfect follow-up and maybe it's just reading between the lines. So when Eric mentioned some of the challenges remaining from the work agreements that required additional employees. I mean it was noticeable to me that you stressed near term. So is this just -- is there a time where the anniversaries where you could be a lot more flexible based on the volume environment? Or was the stress on near term kind of related to what you were just mentioning, Jim, you're putting programs in place, you're trying to address it and that you hope at some point, you can kind of reverse that trend? .

無論如何我正想問這個。我想這是一個完美的後續行動，也許只是在字裡行間解讀。因此，當艾瑞克提到工作協議中剩餘的一些挑戰需要額外的員工。我的意思是，我注意到你近期的壓力。那麼，這是否只是——在周年紀念日的某個時刻，你可以根據數量環境更加靈活？或者，近期的壓力是否與你剛才提到的有關，吉姆，你正在製定計劃，你正在努力解決這個問題，並且你希望在某個時候，你可以扭轉這種趨勢？ 。

Yes. In 2024, we have dates of implementation for the agreements that we have not implemented completely. And those are pressures on the number of people that we would need to operate. So that will be through 2024, and that's why I've always talked about this is a -- I see this as a 2-year adjustment to the railroad to be able to get that. But we do have programs in place as we implement, we run into things that we operate as efficiently as I think we can, we'll mitigate that. You mitigate it by running less trains, having more cars on the same trains. We grow. We put more cars in the same trains instead of starting more. We use the people and the facilities that we have more efficiently. So -- but it's a 2024 headwind for us that we are going to overcome just like we did in the fourth quarter.

是的。 2024年，我們尚未完全執行的協議都有執行日期。這些都是我們營運所需人員數量的壓力。這將持續到 2024 年，這就是為什麼我總是談論這是——我認為這是對鐵路的兩年調整，以便能夠實現這一目標。但我們在實施過程中確實有適當的計劃，我們遇到了我們盡可能高效運作的事情，我們會減輕這種情況。您可以透過減少運行的火車數量、在同一列火車上增加更多的車廂來緩解這種情況。我們成長。我們在同一列火車上放置更多的車廂，而不是啟動更多的車廂。我們更有效地利用我們擁有的人員和設施。所以，但這對我們來說是 2024 年的逆風，我們將像第四季一樣克服它。

Well, just a reminder, John, we only have the work best agreement in place with the PLE team. We're still negotiating with SMART-TD.

好吧，只是提醒一下，John，我們只與 PLE 團隊達成了工作最佳協議。我們仍在與 SMART-TD 進行談判。

Our next question is from the line of Amit Mahotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的阿米特·馬霍特拉 (Amit Mahotra)。

Congrats on the good results. Jennifer, I want to come back to the 5% inflation. So you've got a $15 billion cost structure that basically translates to like $750 million of higher costs in '24. I assume that's a gross number because you've done -- you guys have done a phenomenal job actually lowering the cost structure as we move from 3Q to 4Q. So is there any help you can give us in terms of how you think about that gross 5% translates to kind of like a net cost number in the context of the revenue outlook?

恭喜取得好成績。詹妮弗，我想回到 5% 的通貨膨脹。因此，你的成本結構為 150 億美元，基本上相當於 24 年增加了 7.5 億美元的成本。我認為這是一個總數字，因為隨著我們從第三季度轉向第四季度，你們做了非常出色的工作，實際上降低了成本結構。那麼，您如何看待總 5% 轉化為收入前景中的淨成本數字，您是否可以為我們提供任何幫助？

Yes. No. I mean, you've got that exactly right, Amit. The 5% is the gross number. So that's our challenge, right? And opportunity is to offset that with productivity. And so that's where you heard Jim talk, you heard Eric mention, we have those opportunities in virtually every cost category. But depreciation aside, that's kind of fixed for the year. But we absolutely have opportunities to offset that in terms of how we run the railroad. And I think just think about wage inflation and think about fourth quarter. So we had wage inflation first half of this year.

是的。不，我的意思是，你說得完全正確，阿米特。 5%是總數。這就是我們的挑戰，對吧？機會就是用生產力來抵銷這一點。因此，這就是您聽到吉姆講話的地方，您聽到埃里克提到的，我們幾乎在每個成本類別中都有這些機會。但撇開折舊不談，這在今年是固定的。但我們絕對有機會透過鐵路運營方式來抵消這一影響。我認為只要考慮一下薪資通膨和第四季。今年上半年我們出現了薪資上漲。

Our wages are going to be up 4% for our union personnel. It's going to go to 4.5% in the second half, but our cost per employee was only up 1% in the fourth quarter. So that's productivity that's enabling us to offset some of that. And so that's the task of this management team, and that's those controllables that we talked about, and that's where we're very much focused.

我們工會人員的薪資將上漲 4%。下半年將達到 4.5%，但第四季我們的人均成本僅成長了 1%。因此，生產力使我們能夠抵消其中的一些影響。這就是這個管理團隊的任務，這就是我們談到的那些可控因素，這就是我們非常關注的地方。

But is there any help? Like, I mean, can you offset half of it? Can you offset 40% of it? Like -- because that's obviously critical to understanding the EBIT and margin outlook, which I know is highly uncertain, but at least give us some sense of how much you can offset that gross number by in your opinion?

但有什麼幫助嗎？就像，我的意思是，你能抵消一半嗎？可以抵銷40%嗎？就像——因為這顯然對於理解息稅前利潤和利潤率前景至關重要，我知道息稅前利潤和利潤率前景非常不確定，但至少讓我們了解您認為您可以抵消多少總額？

I mean you also know that volumes play a role in that in terms of how we're able to leverage and build longer trains and more work to put up against some of those inflationary costs. So that's our challenge, but I'm really not going to be able to give you any more than that.

我的意思是，您也知道，就我們如何利用和建造更長的火車以及更多的工作來應對部分通貨膨脹成本而言，數量在這方面發揮作用。這就是我們的挑戰，但我真的無法給你更多的東西。

Next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森‧波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

So obviously, service is improving here. Just in terms of customer engagement, any color on sort of the pipeline of opportunities? Is it going to accelerate? Are there unique opportunities? And I guess along with that, are you seeing any improvement in some of the conversion of some opportunities out there? Just any thoughts.

顯然，這裡的服務正在改善。就客戶參與度而言，機會管道有什麼顏色嗎？會加速嗎？有獨特的機會嗎？我想除此之外，您是否看到一些機會的轉換有所改善？只是任何想法。

Allison, let me start, and then Kenny, please jump in. So if we look at this railroad that we are blessed with that we operate, and I think you've seen some of the steps we've taken is you have to provide a level of service we sold to our customers, and that's our goal. And we work real hard every day to do that. We operate the railroad very efficiently. We're the opportunity, we have a mix of traffic that's available to us that originates on our railroad. So when I go around the entire railroad, I'm very comfortable that we offset and we have the capability to offset.

艾莉森，讓我開始，然後肯尼，請插話。所以，如果我們看看我們運營的這條鐵路，我認為您已經看到了我們採取的一些步驟，您必須提供我們向客戶提供的服務水平，這就是我們的目標。我們每天都在努力做到這一點。我們非常有效率地營運鐵路。我們就是機會，我們擁有源自我們鐵路的各種交通。因此，當我繞過整個鐵路時，我對我們的偏移感到非常滿意，而且我們有能力偏移。

And we are tackling whether it's that industrial complex all the way from New Orleans to Brownsville, Texas, whether it's the grain, whether it's the soda ash, whether it's the intermodal, the West Coast and our speed. We are able to provide speed for customers that require speed and not all of them do. We can go from L.A. to Texas, a close to 2,000 mile journey and we do that in 48 hours. So that's truck-like and our service that we put on from Mexico going into Eastern Canada, partnering with CN and ourselves into the East plus into Chicago is unparalleled. We can do it as fast as anybody. So there's lots of opportunity out there for us. And what we have to do is with good service, the customers will see what's possible, and they will want to partner with Union Pacific and grow their business with us versus anybody else. Kenny? .

我們正在解決從新奧爾良到德克薩斯州布朗斯維爾的整個工業園區，無論是穀物，還是蘇打灰，無論是聯運、西海岸還是我們的速度。我們能夠為需要速度的客戶提供速度，但並非所有客戶都會這樣做。我們可以從洛杉磯前往德克薩斯州，這段路程接近 2,000 英里，而且我們可以在 48 小時內完成。這就像卡車一樣，我們從墨西哥到加拿大東部、與 CN 和我們自己合作進入東部以及芝加哥的服務是無與倫比的。我們可以和任何人一樣快地做到這一點。所以我們有很多機會。我們要做的就是透過良好的服務，客戶會看到一切的可能性，他們會希望與聯合太平洋合作，並與我們一起發展他們的業務，而不是其他任何人。肯尼？ 。

Yes. So first of all, we have a robust business development pipeline. It's a healthy one. If it's encouraging one. We're excited about the pipeline in front of us. So a lot of opportunities there. The main thing I want to start with is our service product is in a strong position. And so as we talk about the service that we sold to customers, you look at some of the markets just to get a little bit more detail here. Look at coming out of Mexico, that's a service product that Eric has given us daily. That's undisputed and unmatched coming out of Mexico. It's the fastest product. It's also a product that is on time.

是的。首先，我們擁有強大的業務開發管道。這是一種健康的。如果這是令人鼓舞的話。我們對面前的管道感到興奮。所以那裡有很多機會。我首先要說的是我們的服務產品處於強勢地位。因此，當我們談論我們向客戶出售的服務時，您可以查看一些市場，以便在這裡獲得更多詳細資訊。看看從墨西哥出來的，那是Eric每天提供給我們的服務產品。這是墨西哥無可爭議和無與倫比的。這是最快的產品。這也是一款準時的產品。

You look at the West Coast and someone asked me a question earlier, we're blessed with a network where we can pitch and we can catch. We can pitch coming out of the West Coast as we onboard an on-dock. We've got a strong IPI. We can catch in the Inland Empire. We built that up. We put investments there, and we've shared with you that we've got plans to really grow in that area. And with the network and the service product we have, we're expecting to grow.

你看看西海岸，有人早些時候問了我一個問題，我們很幸運擁有一個可以推銷和捕捉的網路。當我們登上碼頭時，我們可以從西海岸出發推銷。我們有強大的 IPI。我們可以在內陸帝國抓到。我們建立了它。我們在那裡進行了投資，我們已經與您分享了我們已經制定了在該領域真正發展的計劃。憑藉我們擁有的網路和服務產品，我們有望實現成長。

If you look at the carload side, you've heard us talk about some of the wins in the auto side. I talked about the petrochem side. That's a great network down in the Gulf service product is improving. Our commercial leaders, commercial teams are sitting out there and talking to customers about taking a little bit more truck off the road. So we're bullish on getting out there and growing as the service product is there, and we're investing in the network.

如果您關注整車方面，您就會聽到我們談論汽車方面的一些勝利。我談到了石化方面。海灣地區的一個很棒的網路服務產品正在改進。我們的商業領袖、商業團隊正坐在那裡與客戶討論減少道路上的卡車數量。因此，我們看好隨著服務產品的出現而走出去並不斷發展，並且我們正在投資網路。

Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Eric, I wanted to come back to you because I think in response to an earlier question, you spoke about, there's still more to come on things like velocity and train length. And then I think Jim ever alluded to some local service plan changes. So do you want to elaborate a little bit more on where you see productivity gains this year?

艾瑞克，我想回到你身邊，因為我認為在回答你之前提到的問題時，關於速度和列車長度等問題還有更多的內容需要解決。然後我認為吉姆曾經提到過一些當地服務計劃的變化。那麼，您想詳細說明一下您認為今年的生產力提高嗎？

Absolutely. So you mentioned car velocity, so let's start there. As you're thinking about 2024 and what's in front of us, you saw what we did in the fourth quarter, a 14% improvement, 217 miles per day. That becomes a floor. A floor that is we work every single day, as was mentioned before, we're working to improve that.

絕對地。你提到了汽車速度，所以讓我們從這裡開始。當您思考 2024 年以及我們面前的事情時，您會看到我們在第四季度所做的事情，進步了 14%，每天行駛 217 英里。那就變成地板了。正如之前提到的，我們每天都在工作的樓層，我們正在努力改進這一點。

Now if you peel that back and you say, okay, within that, where do you see the biggest opportunities? You mentioned train length, so we can start there. Train length is an opportunity, always has been and candidly always will be because the railroad is dynamic. Train length comes in 2 forms. The first one, Kenny just gave a great example of Inland Empire, where we're bringing more volume onto the railroad. I already have an existing train, and we can just tack it onto the back of that. The other way that it comes with in our actual transportation plan changes that we make. An example of that is the one that Kenny brought up with Mexico.

現在，如果你把它剝開，你會說，好吧，在這個範圍內，你在哪裡看到最大的機會？你提到了火車的長度，所以我們可以從那裡開始。火車長度是一個機會，過去一直都是，而且將來也永遠如此，因為鐵路是動態的。列車長度有兩種形式。第一個，肯尼剛剛給了內陸帝國的一個很好的例子，我們正在為鐵路帶來更多的容量。我已經有一列現有的火車，我們可以把它固定在火車的後面。另一種方式是我們在實際交通計畫中所做的改變。肯尼在墨西哥提出的一個例子就是一個例子。

When you think about that being 2 trains before and now we're consolidating that traffic into one, it allows us to drive productivity that way. After that, the fluidity drives our locomotive fleet. There's other factors, but at the very core of it, it is about fluidity. We took out 500 units out of the system in the second half of last year, a little bit because of volume but the vast, vast majority of it because of fluidity.

當您想到之前是兩列火車，而現在我們將這些交通整合為一列時，它使我們能夠以這種方式提高生產力。之後，流動性驅動我們的機車車隊。還有其他因素，但其核心是流動性。去年下半年，我們從系統中取出了 500 個單位，部分是因為數量，但絕大多數是因為流動性。

Continuing that work allows us to continue to rightsize the fleet. And we don't talk a lot about purchased services on these calls. The purchase service is a big opportunity for us, whether you're thinking about how many vehicles do we have on this railroad to operate it, whether we think about how much fuel that we're using. We also have opportunities on the casualty side.

繼續這項工作使我們能夠繼續調整機隊規模。我們在這些電話中並沒有過多談論購買的服務。購買服務對我們來說是一個巨大的機會，無論您是否考慮我們在這條鐵路上有多少車輛來運營它，無論我們是否考慮我們使用了多少燃料。我們在傷亡方面也有機會。

As Jennifer has mentioned many times before, it's an opportunity all the way from the safety side. That's why we're so focused on safety as well as even as we think about our service product, right? We have teams that are dedicated to making sure that the freight that we haul is successfully helped more into destination without being damaged and how do we drive down any claims that we have. So it is a target-rich environment, and we are doing everything every day to capitalize on that.

正如詹妮弗之前多次提到的，從安全角度來看，這完全是一個機會。這就是為什麼我們如此關注安全以及我們的服務產品，對嗎？我們擁有專門的團隊，致力於確保我們運輸的貨物能夠成功地到達目的地而不被損壞，以及我們如何減少我們提出的任何索賠。所以這是一個目標豐富的環境，我們每天都在盡一切努力來利用這一點。

Our next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自巴斯克梅專業隊與薩斯奎哈納隊。

Following up on the locomotive piece earlier, you talked about storing 500 units and having a 9% sequential increase in productivity. Jim, as you look forward a bit further, can you talk about how you think about UP's fleet renewal strategy for locomotives over the next, call it, 3 to 5 years? And how, at this point, is some of the regulations that California is proposing impacting the way that you think strategically about that significant investment for the railroad?

繼之前的機車部件之後，您談到存放 500 個單元並將生產率環比提高 9%。 Jim，當您進一步展望時，您能談談您如何看待 UP 未來（即 3 至 5 年）機車機隊更新策略嗎？目前，加州提出的一些法規如何影響您對鐵路重大投資的策略性思考方式？

Bascome, I think it's a great question. If you look at the bottom line, we have enough locomotives that we would not have to look in the planning period of 3 years out that we would have to purchase any locomotives. But we always look at the greenhouse gas emissions of our locomotives, what we need to do to be able to invest to make them more efficient, both on a fuel spend and greenhouse gas emissions. So I think we will target certain capital expenditures. It's not in the plan this year, and we'll look at it again to see where we are. We're testing new innovative ways to have propulsion. So we'll continue to do that and invest in locomotives that can be hybrid, that are able to work out there for us. So -- and in certain situations, we can implement it. But I don't see the requirement is that we do not have to spend money, but bottom line is we know that we will invest in our fleet. And we don't want to have the oldest fleet in the network. So we'll continue to invest and renewing the fleet as we move ahead, but it will not happen in 2024.

巴斯科姆，我認為這是一個很好的問題。如果你看一下底線，我們有足夠的機車，在 3 年後的規劃期內我們不必購買任何機車。但我們始終關注機車的溫室氣體排放，我們需要採取哪些措施才能進行投資以提高機車的效率，無論是在燃料支出還是溫室氣體排放方面。所以我認為我們將瞄準某些資本支出。這不在今年的計劃中，我們會再看看我們的情況。我們正在測試新的創新方式來獲得推進力。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，並投資能夠為我們提供服務的混合動力機車。因此，在某些情況下，我們可以實施它。但我不認為要求我們不必花錢，但底線是我們知道我們將投資我們的機隊。我們不想擁有網路中最舊的機隊。因此，我們將在前進的過程中繼續投資和更新機隊，但這不會在 2024 年發生。

Next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Congrats on solid and rapid results here. Just want to check, I guess you're not changing that you don't need volume gains to get margin improvement. Is that right? Am I hearing that right? And then your thoughts on outpacing normal sequential shifts into the first quarter. Should we still expect that like you did in the fourth quarter, given the weather or accelerating gains?

在此祝賀您取得紮實而快速的成果。只是想檢查一下，我想您不會改變不需要增加銷售量來提高利潤率的情況。是對的嗎？我沒聽錯吧？然後你對超越正常連續成長的想法轉移到第一季。考慮到天氣因素或加速成長，我們是否仍然應該像第四季那樣預期？

And then just a side one, Kenny, I just want to understand, are you -- can you talk about the scale of the intermodal loss in '24? Did we see it in the fourth quarter? Or is that all coming? And can you talk scale? I guess that was a surprise, I think, to everybody so far.

肯尼，我只是想了解一下，你能談談 24 年多式聯運損失的規模嗎？我們在第四季看到了嗎？或者這一切都會到來嗎？能談談規模嗎？我想到目前為止，這對每個人來說都是一個驚喜。

Okay. So 3 questions, Ken. That was very good. I like it. So why don't we start?

好的。所以有 3 個問題，肯。那很好。我喜歡。那我們為什麼不開始呢？

Where are we going to start?

我們要從哪裡開始呢？

Why don't we start with the contract is real simple. The contract was lost early in 2023 and said the business has actually lost starting January 1. Correct, Ken?

我們為什麼不從合約開始呢？其實很簡單。該合約於 2023 年初丟失，並稱該業務實際上從 1 月 1 日起就已經丟失。對嗎，肯？

That's true. We'll still see, the bulk of it still showing up in 2024.

這是真的。我們仍然會看到，其中大部分仍然會在 2024 年出現。

So that's the challenge. It's a 2024 issue. And it was early in 2023 that we lost that business.

這就是挑戰。這是2024年的問題。 2023 年初，我們失去了這項業務。

Yes. And so Ken, in terms of your margin questions, again, not going to give you any specifics there. We have 3 levers, as you know, that we use to attack and generate profitability and volume, price and productivity. You've heard us talk about the fact,in my prepared comments, the price were all positive in excess of inflation dollars is not going to be accretive to margins here in 2024. We are unsure about the volume picture. There's a lot of puts and takes, as you heard, and we know we've got some headwinds from a contract loss in coal. And so the lever that we are most confident about and have ultimate control over is the productivity side.

是的。因此，肯，關於您的保證金問題，再次，不會向您提供任何具體細節。如您所知，我們有 3 個槓桿來攻擊和產生盈利能力、數量、價格和生產力。你已經聽我們談論過這樣一個事實，在我準備好的評論中，價格全部為正值，超過通貨膨脹美元不會增加 2024 年的利潤率。我們不確定銷量情況。正如您所聽到的，有很多看跌期權和看跌期權，而且我們知道煤炭合約損失給我們帶來了一些阻力。因此，我們最有信心並最終控制的槓桿是生產力方面。

And so you're right, we have shown in periods of declining volumes in the past that we can through productivity and price generate margin improvement. But we're not giving the guidance on what -- any kind of magnitude of volume changes. So I don't want to try to get into that game of linking x amount of volume with x amount of productivity and margin. The thing that you will see from us in our results, regardless of what happens with the volume, is that we're performing better. We're running better. We're running more efficiently and driving productivity. And whether that results in positive or negative in the financial picture, is going to be a function of some of that volume and how that plays out through the quarter and through the year.

所以你是對的，我們在過去銷量下降的時期已經證明，我們可以透過生產力和價格來提高利潤率。但我們並沒有給出任何數量變化幅度的指導。因此，我不想嘗試將 x 數量的數量與 x 數量的生產力和利潤連結起來。您將從我們的結果中看到，無論銷售量如何，我們的表現都在更好。我們跑得更好了我們的運作更加高效並提高了生產力。無論這對財務狀況產生積極還是消極影響，都將取決於部分交易量以及其在整個季度和全年的表現。

First quarter, in particular, is going to be a bit of a challenge for us. Volume, yes, in the weather. You heard us talk about that. But a couple of other things just to remind everyone of in terms of a year-over-year comparison. Last year, we had about $100 million, a little over $100 million real estate transaction that was in our earnings. And we also had a very strong fuel benefit in the first quarter of last year. It helped our margins by, I think, almost 2 points and about $0.25. So I just want to remind everybody of those kind of year-over-year comparison pressures.

尤其是第一季度，對我們來說將是一個挑戰。音量，是的，與天氣有關。你聽到我們談論過這個。但還有一些其他事情只是為了提醒大家進行年比比較。去年，我們的收入中有大約 1 億美元，略高於 1 億美元的房地產交易。去年第一季我們也獲得了非常強勁的燃油效益。我認為，它使我們的利潤提高了近 2 個百分點，約為 0.25 美元。所以我只是想提醒大家注意這種逐年比較的壓力。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和史蒂芬斯的對話。

And maybe taking a shot at asking that question a little bit differently. Jim, you've now been at the company for roughly a couple of quarters. Do you have any updated thoughts on the size of the total productivity opportunity going forward? And roughly how much of that is dependent on volume growth. If we want to make our own assumption that volumes are flattish this year, hypothetically, is that a scenario where you can still see meaningful margin expansion year-over-year?

也許嘗試以稍微不同的方式提出這個問題。吉姆，你已經在公司工作了大約幾個季度。您對未來總生產力機會的規模有什麼最新的想法嗎？其中大致有多少取決於銷售成長。如果我們想做出自己的假設，即今年的銷量持平，那麼在這種情況下，您仍然可以看到利潤率同比大幅增長嗎？

Listen, I think it was a well-framed question. I like it because it gets to the crux of who we are at Union Pacific and what the vision is and what our goals and objectives are. I'm very clear on it. I think we are going to have quarters just like the first quarter, but maybe we don't see as much of a sequential improvement as we would like because of the pressures that we had in January so far with weather, and I'm not sure what's going to happen. I've been around for way too long to forecast what's going to happen when winter is on and when we come through spring and everything that can happen then.

聽著，我認為這是一個精心設計的問題。我喜歡它，因為它觸及了聯合太平洋公司是誰、我們的願景是什麼以及我們的目標是什麼的核心。我對此非常清楚。我認為我們將有像第一季一樣的季度，但由於一月份迄今為止天氣的壓力，我們可能看不到我們希望的那麼多連續改善，而且我不認為確定會發生什麼。我已經存在太久了，無法預測冬天來臨、春天到來時會發生什麼事以及那時可能發生的一切。

But fundamentally, I see us as having a best operating ratio in the industry. And that's what we're driving towards, and we'll get there. And I see it in the future, and the future is not so far that it's cloudy. I see it clearly in what we have to do. So for me, that's really important. And I don't care whether we -- whether the business -- and the business in the marketplace gives us business or not. But I'll tell you, I'm pretty clear, okay? We have a great railroad. We operate very efficiently. We should win with the customers, and I expect Kenny and his team to deliver. This is not -- people want to talk about we lost the business. We need to go replace that and we need to bring it on and we need to do that in the short term, not the long term, without going after making an adjustment on price to go get the business. We have that capability, and we can deliver value to the customer. That's how I think.

但從根本上來說，我認為我們擁有業內最好的營運率。這就是我們正在努力實現的目標，我們將會實現這一目標。我看到了未來，未來也不遠到陰雲密佈的程度。我從我們必須做的事情中清楚地看到了這一點。所以對我來說，這真的很重要。我不在乎我們——無論是企業——還是市場上的企業是否為我們帶來了生意。但我告訴你，我很清楚，好嗎？我們有很棒的鐵路。我們的運作非常有效率。我們應該贏得客戶，我希望肯尼和他的團隊能夠做到這一點。這不是——人們想談論我們失去了生意。我們需要更換它，我們需要啟用它，我們需要在短期而不是長期內做到這一點，而不是在調整價格後獲得業務。我們有這種能力，我們可以為客戶創造價值。我就是這麼想的。

And I did not come back here. I could have sat at home in Scottsdale or being somewhere doing some exciting hiking or mountaineering, but I decided to come back because I think we could win. And we have the railroad and the network to do that. So the pressure is on this team. The pressure is on Eric to make sure his entire team to deliver recover fast like we did with this last winter impact that we had. I expect Kenny to deliver. And I expect Jennifer and the entire team to look for every opportunity, how we monetize what we have as a railroad and win. So I love the question. Perfect. So hopefully, I answered that for you.

我沒有回到這裡。我本可以坐在斯科茨代爾的家裡，或者在某個地方進行一些令人興奮的徒步旅行或登山，但我決定回來，因為我認為我們可以獲勝。我們有鐵路和網路來做到這一點。所以壓力就在這支球隊身上。埃里克面臨壓力，要確保他的整個團隊能夠像我們去年冬天遭受的影響一樣快速恢復。我希望肯尼能夠兌現承諾。我希望珍妮佛和整個團隊尋找每一個機會，我們如何將我們作為鐵路的資產貨幣化並取得勝利。所以我喜歡這個問題。完美的。希望我能為你回答這個問題。

The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

下一個問題來自本·諾蘭和史蒂菲爾。

And by the way, Jennifer, I do like the -- that last slide is helpful. The -- my question relates to Mexico. Obviously, that's an initiative that you guys really tried to accelerate last year. And then around the end of the year, there were the border closures. Just thinking through how you expect that business to trend moving forward? And if you're seeing a lot of these reshoring things or some of these interruptions causing any second guessing of that at all?

順便說一句，珍妮佛，我確實喜歡——最後一張幻燈片很有幫助。我的問題與墨西哥有關。顯然，這是你們去年確實試圖加速的舉措。然後到了年底，邊境關閉了。只是想一下您期望該業務的發展趨勢如何？如果您看到很多這樣的回流事情或其中一些中斷導致對此有任何二次猜測？

Kenny, can you talk about the business and how we see it? And then if you don't mind, I'm going to answer the piece on the border, okay?

肯尼，您能談談這項業務以及我們如何看待它嗎？然後如果你不介意的話，我會回答邊界上的問題，好嗎？

Sure. Yes. I mean being near shoring is real. We've seen the billions that have gone in, in all of 2023. These are -- a number of them are highly industrial and rail centric, which we find encouraging. I talked about the service product that we have, and we're not waiting around for the nearshore in the (inaudible). We've seen some wins with us having the fact it's a product coming out of Mexico, especially in time sensitive products like auto parts. Again, it's daily service. We're reaching into the Midwest. We're reaching into different parts of Canada. And so we're encouraged by that. We're bullish about that. We are talking to customers about that. We're putting as much as we can on the network. And you also saw us create a service product into the Southeast, which we gained some traction on. So again, coming out of Mexico, it's a great franchise for us. We've got borders that we can get in and out of Mexico. So great product and great franchise.

當然。是的。我的意思是近岸是真實的。 2023 年全年，我們已經看到了數十億美元的投資。其中一些是高度工業和鐵路為中心的，我們對此感到鼓舞。我談到了我們擁有的服務產品，我們不會等待（聽不清楚）近岸。我們已經看到了一些勝利，因為它是來自墨西哥的產品，特別是在汽車零件等時間敏感的產品方面。再說一次，這是日常服務。我們正在進入中西部。我們正在進入加拿大的不同地區。我們對此感到鼓舞。我們對此持樂觀態度。我們正在與客戶討論此事。我們將盡可能多地放在網路上。您還看到我們在東南部創建了一個服務產品，我們在該產品上獲得了一些關注。再說一遍，來自墨西哥，這對我們來說是一個偉大的特許經營權。我們有可以進出墨西哥的邊界。如此出色的產品和出色的特許經營權。

You bet. And on the border,I'm disappointed that the border will shut down, and I do not think that's the way to move forward. I think there is a problem. There's a humanitarian issue. I personally went down with some members of the team to go visit. And it's very difficult when you see people crossing the river and a mother with a child coming and then falling into some razor wire. That is not something that anybody should see. But at the end of the day, for us, I think it's more important that the border crossings are fluid, and we are doing everything, investing in systems to make sure we protect the railway crossings that we do not have people crossing on the trains.

你打賭。在邊境方面，我對邊境將關閉感到失望，我認為這不是前進的道路。我認為有問題。這裡有一個人道主義問題。我親自帶著一些團隊成員下去參觀。當你看到人們過河，一位母親帶著孩子過來，然後掉進鐵絲網裡時，這是非常困難的。這不是任何人都應該看到的事情。但歸根結底，對我們來說，我認為更重要的是邊境口岸的流動性，我們正在盡一切努力，投資系統以確保我們保護鐵路口岸，避免人們乘坐火車穿越。

And we've done a really good job of that. People are not crossing coming across from Mexico into the U.S. or vice versa on the trains, and that's what we will continue to do. And we will work close with customs and we have. Customs understands they have a problem, and we've worked very closely with them, and we will continue to have meetings and discussions so that we'll do everything we can to make sure that the rail operation is not impacted as we move forward.

我們在這方面做得非常好。人們不會乘坐火車從墨西哥穿越到美國，反之亦然，這就是我們將繼續做的事情。我們將與海關密切合作，我們已經做到了。海關了解到他們遇到了問題，我們與他們密切合作，我們將繼續舉行會議和討論，以便我們將盡一切努力確保鐵路運營在我們前進的過程中不會受到影響。

The next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

You said that you're looking to push on rail length, which is -- train length is understandable. Jim, I want to see kind of how much room you have to kind of get more leverage there. A, kind of given your efforts already kind of how much more like physical space is there. Also, I think given some of the kind of regulatory scrutiny around train lengths kind of -- is this something that you guys can do by yourself? Or do you need to get the kind of STB or Congress is going to sign off on it?

您說您希望推動鐵路長度，火車長度是可以理解的。吉姆，我想看看你有多少空間可以在那裡獲得更多的影響力。 A，考慮到你已經付出的努力，那裡更像是實體空間。另外，我認為考慮到對火車長度的一些監管審查——這是你們可以自己做的事情嗎？或者您需要獲得國會批准的那種機上盒？

Yes. Thank you for that question. So core to your question is how do we think about train length and how do we execute that? So let's put volume to the side just for a second. Do our trains have capacity for more train length? Absolutely, yes, 100%. The work that we have in front of us that we've been executing now for years, and we'll continue to is to make sure that all of our systems behind the scenes continue to first identify those opportunities. And as we've always been to be exceptionally prudent about actually working through our physics engines and to understand exactly how to build our trains. That's science. And like all science, it evolves. And every quarter, every year, we see new opportunities to be able to keep capitalize on that. So I'm not going to guide you to a specific number. But I'm going to tell you, we see some opportunity there. You'll see us capitalize it in '24, and I'm excited and appreciative what the team is doing to make that happen.

是的。謝謝你提出這個問題。因此，您問題的核心是我們如何考慮列車長度以及如何執行？因此，讓我們先把音量放在一邊。我們的火車有能力容納更長的火車嗎？絕對，是的，100%。我們擺在眼前的工作多年來一直在執行，我們將繼續這樣做，以確保我們所有幕後系統繼續首先識別這些機會。正如我們一直以來對實際使用我們的實體引擎並準確地理解如何建造我們的火車一樣非常謹慎。這就是科學。就像所有科學一樣，它也在不斷發展。每個季度、每年，我們都會看到能夠繼續利用這一點的新機會。所以我不會引導您找到具體的數字。但我要告訴你，我們在那裡看到了一些機會。你會看到我們在 24 年充分利用它，我很興奮也很欣賞團隊為實現這一目標所做的一切。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just a quick follow-up first on the work rest rules. Is there anything in your guidance, were you assuming that SMART-TD actually does come on board? Or so far, are you just assuming that it's the BLE?

首先快速跟進工作休息規則。您的指導中有什麼內容嗎？您是否認為 SMART-TD 確實會加入？或者到目前為止，您是否只是假設它是 BLE？

And then maybe for Kenny. Obviously, mix is probably harder to forecast than volume, but the 2 are related. So maybe you can just give us a sense in terms of some of these market pricing adjustments for coal and intermodal that have been more of a headwind than not the last couple of quarters. Is that something that we should anticipate also being a potential headwind into next year? Just curious how much visibility you have on that, knowing that it's probably truck and natural gas-dependent. But I guess is that directionally worse in '24 than perhaps it was in '23.

然後也許是肯尼。顯然，組合可能比數量更難預測，但兩者是相關的。因此，也許您可以讓我們了解煤炭和多式聯運的一些市場定價調整，這些調整在過去幾季中更具阻力。我們是否應該預見這也會成為明年的潛在阻力？只是好奇你對此有多少了解，知道這可能依賴卡車和天然氣。但我猜 24 年的情況可能比 23 年更糟。

Jennifer if you want to handle what's in?

詹妮弗，你想處理裡面的內容嗎？

In terms of the work rest piece, we do have an assumption that we'll come to an agreement probably sometime later in the year. So that's part of our overall thinking.

就工作休息而言，我們確實有一個假設，即我們可能會在今年稍後達成協議。這是我們整體想法的一部分。

You look -- you asked the question about intermodal domestic, Intermodal. First of all, if you look at where the rates have been, I'll differentiate the spot rates of the last 4 months sequentially shown, I'll call it, very slow gradual increase, which is encouraging. The same issue on the contractual side, very slow gradual improvement sequentially, the last 4 months. So I can't get into saying whether I think over the next 3 months, that's going to continue. We've got a lot of mixed feedback from customers, but encouraged by what we've seen in the past. I've said this before that we have mechanisms in our contracts for our suite of customers to keep them competitive, real time and times like this. And as the market improves, I would just mention some of those indices, it will help us some of those mechanisms that we have to secure a little bit more price and better margin.

你看——你問了關於國內多式聯運、多式聯運的問題。首先，如果你看看利率的變化情況，我將按順序區分過去 4 個月的即期利率，我稱之為非常緩慢的逐步增長，這是令人鼓舞的。合約方面也存在同樣的問題，過去 4 個月以來，逐步改善非常緩慢。所以我不能說我認為在接下來的三個月裡，這種情況是否會持續下去。我們從客戶那裡得到了很多不同的回饋，但我們對過去所看到的情況感到鼓舞。我之前說過，我們在合約中為我們的客戶群制定了機制，以保持他們的競爭力、即時性和像這樣的時間。隨著市場的改善，我只想提到其中一些指數，它將幫助我們確保更高的價格和更好的利潤的一些機制。

Yes. And Brian, I think you also asked a broader mix question in terms of next year. And obviously, with a lot of unknowns about volume, it's hard to answer that. But you know the big drivers there really are in the intermodal front. And largely so goes Intermodal, so goes the broader mix for UP. We, obviously, have mix with index. As I know you're also aware. And so when you think about just the premium category, with automotive being very bullish on that as we think about some of the contract wins and what's happening in that market. That may help your overall premium mix, particularly as you've got some down, and then we'll see how the rest of the categories play out, but that's the big swing factor for us in 2024.

是的。布萊恩，我認為你也提出了明年更廣泛的混合問題。顯然，由於成交量存在許多未知因素，因此很難回答這個問題。但你知道，在多式聯運領域確實存在著重要的推動者。多式聯運很大程度上如此，UP 的更廣泛組合也是如此。顯然，我們與索引混合在一起。據我所知，你也知道。因此，當您僅考慮高端類別時，當我們考慮一些贏得的合約以及該市場正在發生的事情時，汽車行業對此非常看好。這可能會對您的整體優質產品組合有所幫助，特別是當您有一些下降的時候，然後我們將看到其餘類別的表現如何，但這對我們來說是 2024 年的重大搖擺因素。

The next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格 (Jordan Alliger)。

A couple just real quick follow-ups or clarifications. One, I don't know if I caught the order of magnitude impact of the international intermodal loss, whether it be revenue or volume. And then secondly, what does it mean, price not being accretive to margin? Does that mean overall yields would it best be flat?

有幾個只是真正快速的跟進或澄清。第一，我不知道我是否注意到國際多式聯運損失的數量級影響，無論是收入還是數量。其次，價格不增加利潤意味著什麼？這是否意味著總體收益率最好持平？

Yes. For the second part of your question, Jordan, it really just means mathematically, when you look at how the price impacts and is added to the revenue, it does not help your overall operating ratio calculation. Even though it's going to be higher than the inflation.

是的。對於你問題的第二部分，喬丹，這實際上只是在數學上意味著，當你查看價格如何影響並添加到收入中時，它對你的整體運營比率計算沒有幫助。儘管它會高於通貨膨脹率。

Exactly. So when you do the math, you know that math, right?

確切地。所以當你做數學時，你知道數學，對嗎？

So again, we're not going to frame up the magnitude. I can tell you, we are focused on growing the international intermodal network. We've been blessed with a new intermodal terminal there in Phoenix. It's going to open up February 1. I talked about some of the other products that we have coming out of Houston. We've talked about Mexico. So again, we're bullish and we want to make sure that we're moving that product at the appropriate margin, acceptable margin.

再說一次，我們不會確定其規模。我可以告訴你，我們專注於發展國際多式聯運網絡。我們很幸運在鳳凰城擁有了一個新的多式聯運終點站。它將於 2 月 1 日開放。我談到了我們在休士頓推出的其他一些產品。我們已經討論過墨西哥。因此，我們再次看好，我們希望確保我們以適當的利潤、可接受的利潤轉移該產品。

The next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen。

Tacking on to Jordan's question there. If we were to look at pricing and exclude sort of intermodal and sort of the natural gas impacts and some of the linked coal contracts, would pricing be accretive to margin in the remainder of the business? And also, as I look in that near-shoring commentary, how should we think about sort of post '24 in near-shoring? Where is that going to show up for you guys? And is there any extra CapEx that might be needed?

繼續回答喬丹的問題。如果我們考慮定價並排除某種多式聯運和某種天然氣影響以及一些相關的煤炭合同，那麼定價是否會增加其餘業務的利潤率？而且，正如我在近岸評論中看到的那樣，我們應該如何看待 24 年後的近岸？你們會在哪裡看到它？是否可能需要任何額外的資本支出？

Yes, Jason, thanks for the question. We're just not going to get into that final level of detail. But certainly, those are substantial headwinds for us that have been impacting our yields through much of 2023. And the intermodal piece, for sure, is going to linger into 2024.

是的，傑森，謝謝你的提問。我們只是不打算深入討論最終的細節。但可以肯定的是，這些對我們來說都是巨大的阻力，在 2023 年的大部分時間裡都會影響我們的收益率。而且多式聯運的問題肯定會持續到 2024 年。

Yes. So post 2024, as you look at it, I mentioned a lot of industrial base markets that are going there. I think in terms of auto, I think in terms of metals and minerals, I think in terms of petrochemical market.

是的。所以 2024 年之後，當你看到它時，我提到了很多工業基礎市場正在發展。我認為就汽車而言，我認為就金屬和礦物而言，我認為就石化市場而言。

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的傑夫考夫曼。

Just a follow-up on the near-shoring for Kenny. A lot of the companies we talk to say really all that's been done at this point is concrete has been poured in the ground, and some of these facilities have been announced. And really, you're not going to see a lot of this potential until kind of '25, '26, '27. Looking at your industrial development plan and kind of what's out there. Do you think -- and I'm going to ask you to guess here. Could this be 100 basis points in magnitude to volume on a basis over 3 to 5 years? Could it be larger than that? How should we think about scoping this longer-term industrial development opportunity for UNP?

只是肯尼近岸事件的後續行動。我們交談過的許多公司都表示，目前所做的一切只是在地面上澆築混凝土，並且其中一些設施已經公佈。事實上，直到 25 年、26 年、27 年你才會看到這種潛力。看看你們的工業發展計劃以及現有的情況。你認為嗎——我要請你猜一下。在 3 到 5 年內，數量級與數量級是否會增加 100 個基點？能比這個更大嗎？我們應該如何考慮為 UNP 確定這一長期工業發展機會的範圍？

We're certainly not going to guide on your basis point question. Here's what I will say, though, and I've repeated this, and I want to make sure I hit this pretty hard. We've got a service product coming out of Mexico that is unmatched. It's a daily product. It's the fastest product to getting in and out of the heart of Mexico. We also have 6 gateway which gives us optionality, which gives our customers optionality, which gives us an opportunity to hit different parts of Mexico. So yes, we feel very bullish about Mexico and the growth, and we've been working from an industrial development perspective with all the stakeholders, with all the customers to help bring that on.

我們當然不會指導您的基點問題。不過，這就是我要說的，我已經重複了這一點，我想確保我非常認真地對待這一點。我們擁有來自墨西哥的無與倫比的服務產品。這是一個日常產品。這是進出墨西哥市中心最快的產品。我們還有 6 個網關，這給了我們選擇權，這給了我們的客戶選擇權，這讓我們有機會到達墨西哥的不同地區。所以，是的，我們對墨西哥及其成長感到非常樂觀，我們一直從工業發展的角度與所有利益相關者和所有客戶合作，以幫助實現這一目標。

The only thing I would add is this. With the ownership position we have in the FXE, I think that ties us even to be able to optimize what's available to us as near-shoring happens. And as we work collaboratively and make it the view as one railroad operationally will help us on the efficiency of being able to move the traffic. And I think we're able to offer the customers the best product. And we think it gives us a chance to win a bigger majority of any business that's added to those lanes.

我唯一要補充的是這個。憑藉我們在 FXE 中的所有權地位，我認為這甚至使我們能夠在近岸外包發生時優化我們可用的資源。當我們協同工作並使其成為一條鐵路運營的觀點時，這將有助於我們提高交通運輸的效率。我認為我們能夠為客戶提供最好的產品。我們認為這使我們有機會贏得這些通道中新增業務的大部分業務。

Next question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

下一個問題來自 Jairam Nathan 和 Daiwa 的線路。

So just on the casualty and I guess, on the other expenses on the last slide, you have flat to down, it looks like casualty will be would be favorable here. So can you talk about some things that could kind of offset that?

因此，就傷亡人數而言，我想，在最後一張幻燈片上的其他費用上，您的支出持平到下降，看起來傷亡人數在這裡會是有利的。那麼您能談談一些可以抵消這一影響的事情嗎？

Yes, Jairan. On the call, I mentioned the fact that we've had some higher casualty expenses certainly over the last couple of years, and we've been playing some catch up. And so that's really a large part of what's driven increase in those lines are in that line in the other line. And so we don't expect that to continue because it's not indicative of our safety performance. And in fact, you've heard us talk about being very focused on improving that overall performance. It really is some cleanup and some maybe outsized verdicts, too, just with some of what's going on in the courts. And we think we have some of those big things behind us. So looking forward to better footing in 2024.

是的，傑蘭。在電話中，我提到了這樣一個事實，在過去的幾年裡，我們的傷亡費用確實有所增加，而且我們一直在努力追趕。因此，推動這些生產線成長的很大一部分實際上是在該生產線和另一生產線中。因此，我們預計這種情況不會持續下去，因為這並不代表我們的安全表現。事實上，您已經聽到我們談論非常專注於提高整體績效。這確實是一些清理工作，也可能是一些規模過大的判決，只是法庭上正在發生的一些事情。我們認為我們已經完成了一些大事。因此，期待 2024 年有更好的基礎。

Okay. And finally, just on the CapEx question. Jim, we talked about FXE. In terms of capital additions would FXE be on the same piece in terms of investing in the business?

好的。最後，關於資本支出問題。吉姆，我們談論了 FXE。就資本增加而言，FXE 是否會在業務投資方面處於相同地位？

Yes, they have the same capability. They do a real good job. I'm on the Board and so is Jennifer, and they have a great plan for 2024 and they invest in their railroad, the same as we do, bottom up, build the plant up to see what you need. So I'm very comfortable that they will invest and have the capability to invest what they need to move forward.

是的，他們具有相同的能力。他們做得非常好。我是董事會成員，珍妮佛也是，他們對 2024 年有一個偉大的計劃，他們投資了他們的鐵路，就像我們一樣，自下而上，建造工廠，看看你需要什麼。因此，我很高興他們會投資並且有能力投資他們前進所需的資金。

Our final question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的最後一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦。

So a couple of questions for you here. First, the CapEx moderation. Kenny, are you a little bit worried about how that's going to impact you for growth. And then second, given your exposure to the situation down in Mexico. Jim, I'd love to hear your thoughts on what you think the introduction of passenger rail might do down in Mexico, in terms of freight flows coming cross border. Any perspective or insight you can share in terms of the response that FXE, I think, had to give to the Mexican government in the last couple of weeks?

這裡有幾個問題想問你。首先，資本支出適度。肯尼，您是否有點擔心這將如何影響您的成長？其次，考慮到您對墨西哥局勢的了解。吉姆，我很想聽聽您的想法，您認為客運鐵路的引入可能會對墨西哥的跨境貨運產生什麼影響。我認為 FXE 在過去幾週必須向墨西哥政府做出回應，您有什麼觀點或見解可以分享嗎？

So Kenny, let me ask the question. When we plan our capital, do we ever limit the capital so you have a problem for growth?

肯尼，讓我問這個問題。當我們規劃資本時，我們是否會限制資本，從而導致成長出現問題？

Not at all.

一點也不。

Perfect. That's the way we look at it. It's that simple. Never. So let me clear up this whole, David, because it's a great question. And you know the answer. So you're asking me, and you've heard it before, and I'm very clear on this. We build our capital plan from the bottom up to look at what we need to reinvest in the railroad and every year is a little bit different. Ties, rail, equipment. We look at growth and what we've identified on where we need to invest. We're opening February 1st, a new intermodal terminal in Phoenix. So we've invested in that. We're a quick turnaround. We don't fool around anymore. That would have been like a 6-month, 1-year discussion.

完美的。我們就是這樣看的。就是這麼簡單。絕不。大衛，讓我來澄清一下這個問題，因為這是一個很好的問題。你知道答案。所以你問我，你以前也聽過，我對此也很清楚。我們自下而上製定資本計劃，看看我們需要對鐵路進行再投資，每年都會有一些不同。枕木、鐵路、設備。我們著眼於成長以及我們已經確定的需要投資的領域。我們將於 2 月 1 日在鳳凰城開設一個新的多式聯運航站樓。所以我們對此進行了投資。我們的周轉速度很快。我們不再胡鬧了。這就像一場為期 6 個月、1 年的討論。

We turned around and in November, said there's a market there. And February 1, we're opening up a place. So we're able to invest quick, and that's the way I look at it. When we built it up, we came up with $3.4 billion. That is not a hard number. If there's an opportunity for us to invest, to grow this company or so we need to on the replacement and the -- what we do every day to operate the railroad, we'll invest. And we never ever skimp on safety, maintenance of the railroad, the capital cost we need and the growth. So we are there. I have no issue.

我們在 11 月轉身說那裡有市場。 2 月 1 日，我們將開放一個地方。所以我們能夠快速投資，這就是我的看法。當我們建造它時，我們籌集了 34 億美元。這不是一個硬數字。如果我們有機會投資、發展這家公司，或者我們需要更換以及我們每天運營鐵路的工作，我們就會投資。我們從不吝惜安全、鐵路維護、所需的資本成本和成長。所以我們就在那裡。我沒有問題。

And on the passenger service. Listen, I give both the FXE and CP-KC. They're saying the right things, and I agree with them. We -- there's an interaction when you have passenger service that affects you, but there's nothing that you -- that I'm worried about that they can't figure out how to mitigate that and still operate a freight and passenger railroad efficiently. So I'm very comfortable that, that will not have a significant effect or really any effect as they move ahead. I'm sure that they will just move ahead and they'll be operating some passenger service on the railroad. So hopefully, we answered your questions, David.

還有客運服務。聽著，我給了 FXE 和 CP-KC。他們說的是正確的話，我同意他們的觀點。當你有客運服務時，我們會產生一種影響你的互動，但我擔心他們無法弄清楚如何減輕這種影響，同時仍然有效地運作貨運和客運鐵路。所以我很放心，這不會對他們的前進產生重大影響或真正產生任何影響。我確信他們會繼續前進，他們將在鐵路上運營一些客運服務。希望我們能回答你的問題，大衛。

As soon as we're done with the questions. I wouldn't mind just recapping and if there's a few people on, that's great. And if everybody else has got off, then I'm talking to my team here, and they love to hear the story. So the bottom line is, this is -- we have a great railroad. We have a franchise that allows us with the business mix to go up and down with -- because not one area ever. And you wish 1 year that every segment that we had, industrial premium, okay, and the bulk would all grow at one time, that's not the way the world is. I've never seen it in my career.

一旦我們完成了問題。我不介意簡單回顧一下，如果有幾個人參加，那就太好了。如果其他人都下車了，那麼我就在這裡和我的團隊交談，他們喜歡聽這個故事。所以最重要的是，我們有一條很棒的鐵路。我們擁有特許經營權，可以讓我們的業務組合隨波逐流——因為從來沒有一個領域是如此。你希望一年後我們擁有的每一個細分市場，工業溢價，好吧，大部分都會一次性成長，世界不是這樣的。我在職業生涯中從未見過這種情況。

We need to be able to have the resiliency and the capability to react on what's happening. We don't know what's going to happen this year, but I'm telling you, fundamentally, we are on the right track to deliver. The team is engaged. We're excited and we're looking forward to winning this year. We have goals to grow revenue with our service, and we also have goals to be the most efficient operationally railroad in the industry. I'm looking forward to 2024. I'm excited. The team is excited, and I'm looking forward to talking to all of you in months and see how the first quarter went and see how we're growing and what we've done at this point. So thank you very much.

我們需要能夠有彈性和能力對正在發生的事情做出反應。我們不知道今年會發生什麼，但我告訴你們，從根本上說，我們正走在實現目標的正確軌道上。團隊很投入。我們很興奮，期待今年獲勝。我們的目標是透過我們的服務增加收入，我們也有目標成為業界營運效率最高的鐵路。我期待 2024 年。我很興奮。團隊很興奮，我期待在幾個月內與你們所有人交談，看看第一季的進展情況，看看我們的成長情況以及我們目前所做的事情。非常感謝。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路，度過美好的一天。