聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Greetings and welcome to the Union Pacific Second Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

您好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在聯合太平洋公司的網站上找到。

At this time, it's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President and CEO for Union Pacific. Mr. Fritz, you may begin.

此時此刻，我很高興向大家介紹東道主，聯合太平洋公司董事長、總裁兼首席執行官蘭斯·弗里茨先生。弗里茨先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning and welcome to Union Pacific's second quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer. We're also joined by our newly elected Independent Chair of the Board of Directors, Mike McCarthy, who will take a couple of minutes to address the announcements we made this morning regarding my successor and our Board.

謝謝你，羅布，早上好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋公司第二季度收益電話會議。今天與我一起在奧馬哈的是營銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker； Eric Gehringer，運營執行副總裁；以及我們的首席財務官 Jennifer Hamann。我們新當選的董事會獨立主席邁克·麥卡錫也加入了我們的行列，他將花幾分鐘時間來討論我們今天早上發布的有關我的繼任者和董事會的公告。

Mike, the floor is yours.

邁克，地板是你的。

Thanks, Lance. This morning, the Board of Directors announced that Jim Vena will be appointed the next Chief Executive Officer of Union Pacific. The Board has also appointed Jim to the Board of Directors. Jim brings a strong rail operations background at Union Pacific with over 40 years of experience. This includes 2 successful years as our Chief Operating Officer from 2019 to 2020.

謝謝，蘭斯。今天上午，董事會宣布吉姆·維納（Jim Vena）將被任命為聯合太平洋公司下一任首席執行官。董事會還任命吉姆為董事會成員。 Jim 擁有聯合太平洋公司強大的鐵路運營背景和 40 多年的經驗。其中包括 2019 年至 2020 年擔任我們首席運營官的兩年成功經歷。

After a comprehensive search process, it was clear Jim's track record of operating excellence was unparalleled and he was the right candidate for the job. Jim will start as CEO on August 14, and we look forward to welcoming him back to Union Pacific.

經過全面的搜索過程後，很明顯吉姆的卓越運營記錄是無與倫比的，他是該職位的合適人選。 Jim 將於 8 月 14 日開始擔任首席執行官，我們期待著歡迎他回到聯合太平洋公司。

The Board also announced that Beth Whited will be appointed President of Union Pacific. Beth has over 35 years of experience at our company and has held leadership roles across multiple departments. Recently, she has led our strategy, sustainability and workforce resource teams with great success.

董事會還宣布貝絲·懷特 (Beth Whited) 將被任命為聯合太平洋公司總裁。 Beth 在我們公司擁有超過 35 年的經驗，並在多個部門擔任過領導職務。最近，她領導我們的戰略、可持續發展和勞動力資源團隊取得了巨大成功。

Going forward, the operations, finance, marketing and sales, supply chain and technology functions will be report directly to Vena. Whited will report to Vena, and her responsibilities will include the strategy, workforce resources, sustainability, law, corporate relations and government affairs functions.

展望未來，運營、財務、營銷和銷售、供應鍊和技術職能將直接向洛書匯報。懷特將向維娜匯報，她的職責包括戰略、勞動力資源、可持續發展、法律、企業關係和政府事務職能。

In addition to these management changes, the Board is appointing 2 new Board members: Doyle Simons, former President and Chief Executive Officer of Weyerhaeuser; and John Wiehoff, former Chairman, President and CEO of C.H. Robinson. Both bring to our Board a wealth of skill sets, including operational expertise from leading large industrial public companies.

除了這些管理層變動之外，董事會還任命了 2 名新董事會成員：Weyerhaeuser 前總裁兼首席執行官 Doyle Simons；以及 C.H. 前董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 John Wiehoff羅賓遜。兩者都為我們的董事會帶來了豐富的技能，包括來自領先的大型工業上市公司的運營專業知識。

As Lance indicated, as part of these changes, we are adopting a corporate governance best practice by splitting the role of company CEO and Board Chair. With my election, the Independent Chair, Director, Sheri Edison, will take over leadership with the Corporate Governance, Nominating and Sustainability Committee.

正如蘭斯所指出的，作為這些變革的一部分，我們正在通過分離公司首席執行官和董事會主席的角色來採用公司治理最佳實踐。在我當選後，獨立主席兼董事 Sheri Edison 將接任公司治理、提名和可持續發展委員會的領導職務。

In addition, the Board has created a new committee, Safety and Service Quality, which will have responsibility to review, evaluate and monitor compliance with safety programs and provide oversight of the company's service performance. Director Jane Lute will lead this committee.

此外，董事會還成立了一個新的委員會，即安全和服務質量委員會，負責審查、評估和監督安全計劃的遵守情況，並對公司的服務績效進行監督。簡·盧特主任將領導該委員會。

The Board is very pleased to make these announcements today, which represent a continued commitment to Board refreshment to ensure that we have the right mix of skills and experience to oversee the company. We are confident that these new appointments set Union Pacific up for long-term value creation.

董事會很高興今天發布這些公告，這代表了對董事會更新的持續承諾，以確保我們擁有適當的技能和經驗組合來監督公司。我們相信，這些新任命將為聯合太平洋公司創造長期價值奠定基礎。

Before I turn it back over to Lance, I would like to thank him for his leadership these past 8 years. His accomplishments are many and over the next few weeks, we will properly celebrate them. Most importantly though, his leadership has set our company up for great success for the years to come.

在我將其轉回蘭斯之前，我要感謝他過去 8 年的領導。他的成就很多，在接下來的幾週內，我們將適當地慶祝這些成就。但最重要的是，他的領導使我們公司在未來幾年取得了巨大的成功。

Thank you, Lance. And I'll turn it back over to you.

謝謝你，蘭斯。我會把它還給你。

Thanks, Mike. We appreciate your leadership throughout the process. And I'm pleased to welcome back Jim to Union Pacific, and I'm confident that the company has the right leaders to advance the hard work that's underway.

謝謝，邁克。我們感謝您在整個過程中的領導。我很高興歡迎吉姆回到聯合太平洋公司，我相信公司擁有合適的領導者來推進正在進行的艱苦工作。

Now let's turn to the business of the call and second quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific reported 2023 second quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.57 per share. This compares to 2022 second quarter net income of $1.8 billion or $2.93 per share. Our second quarter operating ratio of 63% was up 280 basis points versus 2022 primarily driven by lower revenue, inflationary pressures and the previously disclosed onetime ratification bonus payment.

現在讓我們來談談電話會議和第二季度業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋公佈 2023 年第二季度淨利潤為 16 億美元，即每股 2.57 美元。相比之下，2022 年第二季度淨利潤為 18 億美元，即每股 2.93 美元。我們第二季度的運營率為 63%，與 2022 年相比上升了 280 個基點，這主要是由於收入下降、通脹壓力和之前披露的一次性批准獎金支付所致。

Throughout the quarter, we provided our customers with a more consistent and reliable service product while generally meeting the demand that was available to us. Eric will discuss in more detail the progress we've made, but the bottom line is that the actions we've taken to strengthen our crew resources are improving the railroad.

在整個季度中，我們為客戶提供了更加一致和可靠的服務產品，同時總體上滿足了我們的需求。埃里克將更詳細地討論我們所取得的進展，但最重要的是，我們為加強船員資源而採取的行動正在改善鐵路。

We also acted during the quarter to increase the efficiency of our network by rightsizing our locomotive fleet using crews more efficiently and making sequential improvements in train length. We finished the quarter with our resources better aligned with current volumes.

我們還在本季度採取行動，通過更有效地使用機組人員來調整機車車隊規模並連續改進列車長度，以提高網絡效率。本季度結束時，我們的資源與當前數量更加一致。

As you'll hear from Kenny, while several of our markets showed growth, consumer-facing markets remained soft and drove the volume decline. However, the strength of our business development efforts enabled us to mitigate the macro impact and outperform our peers.

正如您將從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，雖然我們的幾個市場出現了增長，但面向消費者的市場仍然疲軟，導致銷量下降。然而，我們業務發展的實力使我們能夠減輕宏觀影響並超越同行。

So let me turn it over to Kenny to provide more color on the business environment.

因此，讓我把它交給肯尼，為商業環境提供更多的色彩。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. For the second quarter, volume was down 2% driven by weak market conditions in our premium and bulk business groups. Freight revenue declined 5% driven by lower fuel surcharges and a 2% decrease in volume. However, we generated solid core pricing gains in the quarter to help offset some of those challenges.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早上好。第二季度，由於我們的高端和大宗業務部門市場狀況疲軟，銷量下降了 2%。由於燃油附加費降低和貨運量下降 2%，貨運收入下降 5%。然而，我們在本季度實現了堅實的核心定價收益，以幫助抵消其中一些挑戰。

Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups. Starting with bulk. Revenue for the quarter was down 3% compared to last year driven by a 2% decrease in average revenue per car due to lower fuel surcharges and a 1% decline in volume.

讓我們仔細看看每個業務組。從批量開始。由於燃油附加費降低以及銷量下降 1%，每輛車的平均收入下降 2%，導致本季度收入比去年下降 3%。

Grain and grain products volume was up 1% due to increased demand and business wins for renewable diesel feedstocks coupled with strong shipments of domestic grain. A soft U.S. export grain market partially offset these gains.

由於可再生柴油原料的需求增加和業務勝利，加上國內穀物出貨量強勁，穀物和穀物產品銷量增長了 1%。美國出口穀物市場疲軟部分抵消了這些漲幅。

Fertilizer carloads decreased by 9% in the quarter due to an outage at a customer facility that reduced export potash shipments.

由於客戶設施停電導致鉀肥出口量減少，本季度肥料車裝載量減少了 9%。

Food and refrigerated volume was down 8% due to reduced beer imports early in the quarter, but those shipments eventually improved by June. In addition, drought conditions from the prior growing season negatively impacted both fresh and can shipments.

由於本季度初啤酒進口減少，食品和冷藏貨量下降了 8%，但到 6 月份發貨量最終有所改善。此外，上一個生長季節的干旱條件對新鮮和罐頭的運輸產生了負面影響。

And lastly, coal and renewables volume was flat year-over-year. Low natural gas prices and reduced electricity demand from mild weather negatively impacted shipments, but that was offset by a favorable comparison to 2022. With our service improvements and additional resources, we are currently meeting available demand.

最後，煤炭和可再生能源發電量同比持平。較低的天然氣價格和溫和天氣導致的電力需求減少對發貨量產生了負面影響，但與 2022 年相比有利的影響抵消了這一影響。通過我們的服務改進和額外資源，我們目前正在滿足可用需求。

Moving on to industrial. Industrial revenue was flat for the quarter driven by a 1% improvement in volume, offset by a 1% decline in average revenue per car. Core pricing gains in the quarter were offset by lower fuel surcharges and a negative mix in volume.

轉向工業。本季度工業收入持平，銷量增長 1%，但被每輛車平均收入下降 1% 所抵消。本季度核心定價的上漲被燃油附加費降低和銷量下降所抵消。

Industrial chemicals and plastics volume was up 2% year-over-year driven by increased plastic shipments, partially offset by lower industrial chemical shipments due to challenged industrial production levels and reduced housing demand.

由於塑料出貨量增加，工業化學品和塑料銷量同比增長 2%，但由於工業生產水平面臨挑戰和住房需求減少而導致工業化學品出貨量下降，部分抵消了這一影響。

Metals and minerals volumes continue to deliver year-over-year growth. Volume was up 2% compared to last year primarily driven by growth in construction materials and increased frac sand shipments along with new business development wins.

金屬和礦物產量繼續實現同比增長。與去年相比，銷量增長了 2%，主要是由於建築材料的增長、壓裂砂出貨量的增加以及新業務開發的勝利。

Forest products volume declined 13% year-over-year driven by challenging market conditions in housing and repair and remodel coupled with lower corrugated box demand.

由於住房、維修和改造市場環境充滿挑戰，加上瓦楞紙箱需求下降，林產品產量同比下降 13%。

However, energy and specialized shipments were up 2% versus last year driven by strong business development and increased demand for LPG and petroleum products.

然而，由於強勁的業務發展以及對液化石油氣和石油產品的需求增加，能源和專業運輸量比去年增長了 2%。

Turning to premium. Revenue for the quarter was down 11% on a 4% decrease in volume compared to last year. Average revenue per car decreased by 8%, reflecting lower fuel surcharge revenue. Automotive volumes were positively driven by continued strength in OEM production and inventory replenishment for finished vehicles and auto parts.

轉向高級。與去年相比，本季度收入下降 11%，銷量下降 4%。每輛車平均收入下降 8%，反映出燃油附加費收入下降。汽車銷量受到整車和汽車零部件 OEM 生產和庫存補充持續強勁的推動。

Domestic intermodal wins were offset by a weak freight and parcel market driven by higher inventory and the shift in consumer behavior as people spend more towards services than goods. International shipments were down due to decreased imports on the West Coast.

國內多式聯運的勝利被庫存增加和消費者行為轉變（人們在服務上的支出高於商品支出）導致的貨運和包裹市場疲軟所抵消。由於西海岸進口減少，國際發貨量下降。

So turning to Slide 7. Here is our outlook for the rest of 2023 as we see it today. Starting with our bulk commodities. There is uncertainty in our second half coal outlook as the inventories have been restocked, but extreme heat is driving up near-term demand and starting to push up natural gas prices. We expect near-term grain shipment to be challenged with tighter U.S. grain supply impacting volumes. However, with improved operations and recent rain improving new crop supply forecast, we remain optimistic about our opportunity to move incremental grain carloads in the fourth quarter.

現在轉向幻燈片 7。這是我們今天對 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。從我們的大宗商品開始。由於庫存已經補充，下半年煤炭前景存在不確定性，但極端高溫正在推動近期需求並開始推高天然氣價格。我們預計近期糧食運輸將面臨美國糧食供應緊張影響產量的挑戰。然而，隨著運營狀況的改善以及最近的降雨改善了新作物供應預測，我們對第四季度增加穀物車運量的機會保持樂觀。

In addition, we expect our forecast for biofuel shipments of renewable diesel and their associated feedstocks to remain strong. We see solid market demand and continue to capture new business as production expands.

此外，我們預計可再生柴油及其相關原料的生物燃料出貨量將保持強勁。我們看到了強勁的市場需求，並隨著產量的擴大而繼續捕捉新業務。

Moving on to industrial. The forecast for industrial production is down in the back half of 2023. Demand for forest products will also remain below 2022 levels. And despite some good business development wins on the metal side, it has been offset by a weaker-than-expected market. However, we expect to see continued strength in construction with new business wins.

轉向工業。 2023 年下半年工業生產預測下調。林產品需求也將維持在 2022 年水平以下。儘管金屬方面取得了一些良好的業務發展勝利，但它被弱於預期的市場所抵消。然而，我們預計建築業將持續強勁，並贏得新業務。

And finally, for premium. We expect challenges in the intermodal market from continued inventory destocking, inflationary pressures and ongoing shift in consumer spending from goods to services. However, on the international side, we continue to outpace U.S. West Coast import market as customers shift more business to IPI.

最後，為了溢價。我們預計多式聯運市場將面臨來自持續去庫存、通脹壓力以及消費者支出從商品轉向服務的持續挑戰。然而，在國際方面，隨著客戶將更多業務轉移到 IPI，我們繼續超過美國西海岸進口市場。

For automotive, we expect growth to continue driven by strong OEM production and high shippable ground count.

對於汽車行業，我們預計強勁的 OEM 生產和大量可發貨地面數量將繼續推動增長。

So to wrap up, it's hard to say when the economy will begin to recover in certain sectors, but our diverse portfolio allows us to see positive momentum in many of our commodities. The team remains focused on winning new business and has a strong pipeline of opportunities with a great track record for closing deals.

總而言之，很難說某些行業的經濟何時開始復蘇，但我們多樣化的投資組合使我們能夠看到許多大宗商品的積極勢頭。該團隊仍然專注於贏得新業務，並擁有強大的機會渠道以及達成交易的良好記錄。

With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

這樣，我會將其交給 Eric 來審查我們的運營績效。

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Starting on Slide 9. As always, safety remains job #1 at Union Pacific, and we are committed to ensuring the safety of our employees, our customers and the communities that we serve.

謝謝你，肯尼，早上好。從幻燈片 9 開始。一如既往，安全仍然是聯合太平洋公司的第一要務，我們致力於確保我們的員工、客戶和我們所服務的社區的安全。

Freight rail is the safest way to transport goods over land, and Union Pacific is doing its part to be even safer through ongoing investments in our network, employees, technology and communities. That is evidenced by our safety performance, which continues to show improvement.

貨運鐵路是最安全的陸路貨物運輸方式，聯合太平洋航空​​正在通過對我們的網絡、員工、技術和社區的持續投資，儘自己的一份力量，讓貨運鐵路變得更加安全。我們的安全績效就證明了這一點，安全績效持續改善。

Through the first half of the year, our reportable derailment rate and personal injury rate both improved, a direct result of our enhanced training programs and strong safety culture of ownership and personal accountability.

上半年，我們的可報告脫軌率和人身傷害率均有所改善，這是我們加強培訓計劃以及強大的主人翁意識和個人責任的安全文化的直接結果。

Now let's review our key performance metrics for the quarter, starting on Slide 10. This quarter, through the team's hard work, we made improvements both year-over-year and sequentially across key metrics that drive the customer experience. Freight car velocity improved 8% to 202 miles per day compared to the second quarter 2022. This improved fluidity and resiliency was on display as we exceeded 200 daily car miles for 10 consecutive weeks during the quarter.

現在讓我們從幻燈片 10 開始回顧本季度的關鍵績效指標。本季度，通過團隊的辛勤工作，我們在推動客戶體驗的關鍵指標上逐年取得了改進。與 2022 年第二季度相比，貨運汽車速度提高了 8%，達到每天 202 英里。當我們在本季度連續 10 週每天超過 200 英里時，流動性和彈性的改善就得到了體現。

While the current business mix is a headwind, there remain opportunities for continued improvement. Trip plan compliance sizable 17 and 8-point year-over-year improvement in intermodal and manifest and auto TPC, respectively. Improved network fluidity as evidenced by faster freight car velocity, train velocity and lower terminal dwell drove those improvements.

雖然當前的業務組合是一個逆風，但仍然存在持續改進的機會。聯運、艙單和汽車 TPC 的旅行計劃合規性分別同比提高 17 個百分點和 8 個百分點。更快的貨車速度、火車速度和更低的終點站停留時間證明了網絡流動性的改善推動了這些改進。

Turning to Slide 11 to review our network efficiency metrics. With the demand picture weaker, the team is taking action to rightsize resources to align with current volumes. For example, beginning in April, we took actions to remove locomotives from our active fleet, storing around 200 units through the quarter. While there is still room for progress, locomotive productivity improved 2% both sequentially and year-over-year even as our gross ton miles declined 1%.

請參閱幻燈片 11 來回顧我們的網絡效率指標。由於需求形勢疲軟，該團隊正在採取行動調整資源規模，以適應當前的數量。例如，從 4 月份開始，我們採取行動從現役機隊中移除機車，整個季度存儲了約 200 台機車。雖然仍有進步的空間，但機車生產率環比和同比均提高了 2%，儘管我們的總噸英里下降了 1%。

Although greater crew availability is supporting solid service metrics, the impact of our hiring can be seen in our workforce productivity. To date, we have graduated approximately 1,200 TE&Y employees and have a strong pipeline of nearly 775 in training. These higher workforce levels, coupled with weaker volumes, resulted in a 5% decline in workforce productivity. However, with more crew resources, we were able to lower recrew rates and reduce our bar routes by roughly half during the quarter.

儘管更多的船員可用性支持了可靠的服務指標，但我們招聘的影響可以在我們的員工生產力中看到。迄今為止，我們已有約 1,200 名 TE&Y 員工畢業，並擁有近 775 名培訓人員的強大渠道。勞動力水平的提高加上勞動力數量的減少，導致勞動力生產率下降了 5%。然而，憑藉更多的船員資源，我們能夠在本季度降低重新船員率並將酒吧路線減少大約一半。

We continue to drive productivity with train length as evidenced by our sequential improvement of 2%. While down 1% year-over-year, this is good progress when you consider the headwinds, soft intermodal volumes presented to our train length initiatives. There are many more opportunities ahead for improved efficiency of our railroad. From redeploying brake persons to improving fuel efficiency, growing train length and rightsizing our locomotive fleet, there is productivity to be captured.

我們繼續通過列車長度提高生產率，連續提高 2% 就是證明。雖然同比下降 1%，但考慮到我們的列車長度計劃所面臨的不利因素和聯運量疲軟，這已經是一個不錯的進步。提高鐵路效率還有更多機會。從重新部署制動人員到提高燃油效率、增加列車長度以及調整機車車隊規模，我們都需要提高生產力。

Wrapping up on Slide 12. The well-being and quality of life for our employees remains a top priority, and we continuously collect feedback, collaborate and look for solutions with our workforce. The historic agreements listed on Slide 12 represent the results of our work together. Let's talk through each one of them in detail.

幻燈片 12 結束。員工的福祉和生活質量仍然是重中之重，我們不斷收集反饋、與員工協作並尋找解決方案。幻燈片 12 中列出的歷史性協議代表了我們共同努力的成果。讓我們詳細討論其中的每一個。

Starting with Paid Sick Leave. We now have ratified our tentative agreements with all 13 of our labor unions on this important quality-of-life initiative. The employee benefit is evident as they receive more paid time off to take care of themselves and their families. For the company, this definitely improves the attractiveness of our jobs but is additional labor expense that will need to be offset.

從帶薪病假開始。我們現在已經批准了與所有 13 個工會就這一重要的生活質量倡議達成的暫定協議。員工的福利是顯而易見的，因為他們可以獲得更多的帶薪休假來照顧自己和家人。對於公司來說，這無疑提高了我們工作的吸引力，但需要抵消額外的勞動力費用。

Next, our Crew Consist agreement with Smart-TD provides greater scheduling flexibility and the ability to redeploy break or switch persons to work either in or outside the yard. More specifically, for our employees, it provides an expedited path for brakepersons to become conductors and ultimately engineers if they so desire.

接下來，我們與 Smart-TD 簽訂的 Crew Consist 協議提供了更大的調度靈活性以及重新部署休息或切換人員在院子內外工作的能力。更具體地說，對於我們的員工來說，它為製動人員成為指揮員並最終成為工程師（如果他們願意）提供了一條快捷的道路。

For the company, it allows us to now reduce brakepersons where the work does not require the third person, allowing us to partially offset short-term hiring demand. It also sets the stage to establish ground-based enhanced utility positions with fixed days off and greater certainty about their weekly assignments through scheduled shift work.

對於公司而言，它使我們現在能夠在不需要第三人的工作中減少制動人員，從而使我們能夠部分抵消短期招聘需求。它還為建立地面增強型公用事業職位奠定了基礎，該職位有固定的休息日，並通過計劃的輪班工作更加確定每週的任務。

Finally, TE&Y Work-Rest provides engineers and conductors with a more predictable work schedule, which enhances the quality-of-life for our employees and their families. Currently, we have a ratified agreement with our engineers that provides an 11 days on, 4 days off work schedule, and we are currently negotiating work-rest with our conductors.

最後，TE&Y Work-Rest 為工程師和指揮提供了更可預測的工作時間表，從而提高了我們員工及其家人的生活質量。目前我們已經和工程師簽定了協議，規定上班11天，休息4天，目前正在和售票員協商工作休息事宜。

For the company, this enables the railroad to better manage staffing levels as we receive a more predictable, available workforce. That reduces labor and failure costs, which combined support more consistent and reliable service, enabling long-term growth. We also believe it will improve our retention rate, reducing hiring expenses and loss productivity.

對於公司來說，這使鐵路能夠更好地管理人員配置水平，因為我們獲得了更可預測、可用的勞動力。這降低了勞動力和故障成本，同時支持更一致和可靠的服務，從而實現長期增長。我們還相信，這將提高我們的保留率，減少招聘費用和生產力損失。

Now these agreements come with a cost, which Jennifer will detail more later. As we implement them, we expect a larger training pipeline in the near term as well as elevated workforce levels in the future. When fully implemented, our current forecast is an additional 400 to 600 employees. Ultimately, the long-term benefit of these agreements is the positive impact on our employees and the service we provide for our customers. That enhanced service product will allow us to win in the marketplace.

現在，這些協議是有代價的，詹妮弗稍後將詳細介紹這一點。當我們實施這些計劃時，我們預計短期內會有更大的培訓渠道，並且未來的勞動力水平將會提高。全面實施後，我們目前預計將增加 400 至 600 名員工。最終，這些協議的長期利益是對我們的員工以及我們為客戶提供的服務產生積極影響。這種增強的服務產品將使我們能夠在市場上獲勝。

So to close, I would like to express my appreciation to both our customers for their support and the marketing and sales team for their continuous work to capture available demand and win in the new -- win new business.

最後，我要對客戶的支持以及營銷和銷售團隊的持續努力表示感謝，感謝他們不斷努力捕捉可用需求並贏得新業務。

With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

這樣，我將把它交給詹妮弗來審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. Let me start with a look at the walk-down of our second quarter operating ratio and earnings per share on Slide 14, where we've outlined the major drivers. In the June 13th 8-K, we disclosed a onetime ratification payment related to our Smart-TD brakeperson agreement. That $67 million bonus increased our operating ratio 110 basis points and reduced our EPS $0.09.

謝謝，埃里克，早上好。首先讓我看一下幻燈片 14 上第二季度運營比率和每股收益的詳細情況，我們在其中概述了主要驅動因素。在 6 月 13 日的 8-K 中，我們披露了與 Smart-TD 制動員協議相關的一次性批准付款。這 6700 萬美元的獎金使我們的運營比率提高了 110 個基點，並使每股收益減少了 0.09 美元。

Falling fuel prices during the quarter and the lag on our fuel surcharge recovery programs positively impacted our operating ratio 200 basis points and added $0.04 to EPS. While improved operations generally allowed us to meet demand during the quarter, that demand was softer and the combination of an elevated training pipeline, inflation and negative mix all impacted our core results. Below the line, we net to a $0.07 EPS reduction from lower Nebraska State tax rates in 2023, as was noted in that same June 8-K, and a large 2022 real estate sale.

本季度燃油價格下跌以及燃油附加費回收計劃的滯後對我們的運營比率產生了 200 個基點的積極影響，並使 EPS 增加了 0.04 美元。雖然運營改善總體上使我們能夠滿足本季度的需求，但需求疲軟，而且培訓渠道增加、通貨膨脹和負面組合都影響了我們的核心業績。在此線之下，我們預計 2023 年內布拉斯加州稅率降低，每股收益將減少 0.07 美元，正如同一份 6 月 8-K 報告中所指出的那樣，以及 2022 年的大規模房地產銷售。

Looking now at our second quarter income statement on Slide 15. Operating revenue totaled $6 billion, down 5% versus last year on a 2% year-over-year volume decline. Included in that is a $34 million reduction in accessorials related to lower intermodal volume and faster equipment turns.

現在看幻燈片 15 上的第二季度損益表。營業收入總計 60 億美元，比去年下降 5%，銷量同比下降 2%。其中包括與減少聯運量和加快設備周轉相關的配件費用減少 3,400 萬美元。

Operating expense of $3.8 billion was flat, resulting in second quarter operating income of $2.2 billion, which is down 12% versus last year. Other income decreased $70 million driven by the 2022 real estate sale I mentioned earlier. Interest expense increased 7%, reflecting higher debt levels. Net income of $1.6 billion declined 14% versus 2022, which when combined with share repurchases, resulted in a 12% decrease in earnings per share to $2.57.

營業費用為 38 億美元，與去年持平，導致第二季度營業收入為 22 億美元，比去年同期下降 12%。我之前提到的 2022 年房地產銷售導致其他收入減少了 7000 萬美元。利息支出增加 7%，反映出債務水平較高。淨利潤為 16 億美元，較 2022 年下降 14%，加上股票回購，導致每股收益下降 12% 至 2.57 美元。

Now looking more closely at our second quarter revenue. Slide 16 provides a breakdown of our freight revenue, which totaled $5.6 billion, down 5% versus 2022. Lower year-over-year volume reduced revenue 175 basis points. Total fuel surcharge revenue of $707 million was $269 million less versus last year. The impact of falling fuel prices as well as the lag in our surcharge programs reduced freight revenues 425 basis points.

現在更仔細地關注我們第二季度的收入。幻燈片 16 提供了我們貨運收入的明細，貨運收入總計 56 億美元，比 2022 年下降 5%。同比貨運量下降使收入減少了 175 個基點。燃油附加費總收入為 7.07 億美元，比去年減少 2.69 億美元。燃油價格下跌以及附加費計劃滯後的影響使貨運收入減少了 425 個基點。

The combination of price and mix in the quarter increased freight revenue 150 basis points. This gain reflects the strong pricing we secured while also recognizing some headwinds from certain coal and intermodal contracts where the pricing is more reflective of current market conditions. Mix in the quarter remained negative as fewer lumber shipments and more short-haul rock shipments outweighed the positive impact of lower intermodal.

本季度的價格和組合使貨運收入增加了 150 個基點。這一收益反映了我們獲得的強勁定價，同時也認識到某些煤炭和多式聯運合同的一些不利因素，這些合同的定價更能反映當前的市場狀況。由於木材運輸量減少和短途岩石運輸量增加超過了多式聯運減少的積極影響，本季度的混合情況仍為負面。

Turning now to Slide 17 and a look at second quarter operating expenses, which totaled $3.8 billion. Compensation and benefits expense increased $177 million versus 2022 with nearly 40% of that amount reflecting the brakeperson agreement. Second quarter workforce levels increased to 4%. Although total transportation employees were up 7%, the active TE&Y workforce is only up 1%, which is a result of our robust hiring and elevated training pipeline.

現在轉向幻燈片 17，看看第二季度的運營支出，總計 38 億美元。與 2022 年相比，薪酬和福利費用增加了 1.77 億美元，其中近 40% 反映了製動員協議。第二季度勞動力水平增加至 4%。儘管運輸員工總數增長了 7%，但活躍的 TE&Y 員工僅增長了 1%，這是我們強勁的招聘和增加的培訓渠道的結果。

Excluding the impact of the onetime bonus payment, cost per employee increased 5% in the second quarter, and we expect it to be up 3% to 4% for the full year. Both second quarter and full year cost per employee reflect the impact of that larger training pipeline as well as better crew efficiency, which are partially offsetting wage inflation. I'll provide more details on the impact of our new agreements here in just a bit.

剔除一次性獎金的影響，第二季度每位員工的成本增長了5%，我們預計全年將增長3%至4%。第二季度和全年每位員工的成本都反映了更大的培訓渠道以及更高的員工效率的影響，這部分抵消了工資上漲。我稍後將提供有關新協議影響的更多詳細信息。

Fuel expense in the quarter increased 29% on a 29% decrease in fuel prices. Purchased services and materials expense increased 5% driven by inflation, partially offset by decreased subsidiary drayage expense and more moderate locomotive repair expenses as we stored locomotives in the quarter.

由於燃油價格下降 29%，該季度的燃油費用增加了 29%。受通貨膨脹推動，購買的服務和材料費用增加了 5%，部分被附屬拖運費用的減少和我們在本季度存放機車而減少的機車維修費用所抵消。

Equipment & Other Rents was up 8%, reflecting higher lease expense for new freight cars secured to support business volumes and lower equity income, slightly offset by lower car hire as we improve cycle times and move less volume. Other expense grew 6%, primarily related to increased environmental remediation accruals as well as persistently elevated casualty costs.

設備和其他租金上漲 8%，反映出為支持業務量而購買的新貨車的租賃費用增加以及股權收入減少，但由於我們改善週期時間和運輸量減少而導致汽車租賃減少，略有抵消。其他費用增長 6%，主要與環境修復費用增加以及傷亡成本持續上升有關。

Turning to Slide 18 and our cash flows. Cash from operations in the first half of 2023 decreased to $3.9 billion from $4.2 billion in 2022. The primary driver was $445 million of payments related to labor union agreements. These payments also impacted free cash flow and our cash flow conversion rate.

轉向幻燈片 18 和我們的現金流。 2023 年上半年的運營現金從 2022 年的 42 億美元減少到 39 億美元。主要驅動因素是與工會協議相關的 4.45 億美元付款。這些付款還影響了自由現金流和我們的現金流轉化率。

Year-to-date, we returned $2.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. And we finished the second quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 200 -- excuse me, to 2022 levels at 2.9x as we continue to be A-rated by our 3 credit agencies.

今年迄今為止，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 23 億美元。第二季度結束時，我們的調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率達到 200——對不起，達到 2022 年水平的 2.9 倍，因為我們繼續被 3 家信貸機構評為 A 級。

Wrapping up on Slide 19. As you've heard from the team, we're pleased that the service product is enabling us to meet available demand. Unfortunately, as you heard from Kenny, consumer-facing markets like intermodal and lumber remains soft. Additionally, the outlook for coal has weakened since the start of the year but with some near-term opportunities given the extreme heat.

幻燈片 19 結束。正如您從團隊那裡聽到的那樣，我們很高興該服務產品使我們能夠滿足現有需求。不幸的是，正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，面向消費者的市場（如多式聯運和木材）仍然疲軟。此外，自今年年初以來，煤炭前景有所減弱，但鑑於極端高溫，近期存在一些機會。

Although we still expect to outpace industrial production in certain markets, weak demand for consumer goods has pushed our full year volume outlook below current industrial production estimates, which are slightly positive. Unchanged is our expectation to generate pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars. To date, we've made great progress repricing our business to reflect the impact of higher inflation, and that momentum will continue.

儘管我們仍預計某些市場的工業生產將超過工業生產，但消費品需求疲軟已將我們的全年產量預期推至低於目前略為樂觀的工業生產預期。我們的預期不變，即定價美元將超過通脹美元。迄今為止，我們在重新定價業務以反映通脹上升的影響方面取得了巨大進展，而且這一勢頭將持續下去。

As it relates to fuel prices, I should point out that the tailwind we've experienced these past 24 months is now expected to shift to a headwind both on the operating ratio and EPS front. Assuming fuel prices remain relatively stable, this will likely represent a negative second half impact of around $0.50 per share.

由於與燃油價格相關，我應該指出，過去 24 個月我們經歷的順風現在預計將轉變為運營率和每股收益方面的逆風。假設燃料價格保持相對穩定，這可能意味著下半年每股約 0.50 美元的負面影響。

Eric provided some great context on our labor agreements. And although they clearly come with some upfront cost, we see opportunities as well. Starting with the sick leave agreements. Our current forecast is that they will add roughly $50 million to labor expense in the second half of 2023, which is reflected in the cost per crew numbers I quoted earlier. We view these costs as added inflationary pressures that we will reflect in our pricing.

埃里克（Eric）提供了有關我們勞工協議的一些重要背景。儘管它們顯然需要一些前期成本，但我們也看到了機會。從病假協議開始。我們目前的預測是，到 2023 年下半年，他們將增加大約 5000 萬美元的勞動力支出，這反映在我之前引用的每名船員的成本中。我們將這些成本視為額外的通脹壓力，我們將在定價中反映出來。

For the brakeperson agreement, we've already seen the impact of that upfront payment. Our expected payback period is roughly 2 years as it allows us to redeploy crew personnel, save on costly borrow-out positions, as well as reduce our current hiring needs. Implementation of the BLET work-rest agreement will start over the next month or so with completion likely in 2024. For this year, we estimate the work-rest implementation will cost upwards of $20 million.

對於製動員協議，我們已經看到了預付款的影響。我們的預期投資回收期約為 2 年，因為這使我們能夠重新部署船員，節省昂貴的借用職位，並減少我們當前的招聘需求。 BLET 工休協議的實施將於下個月左右開始，可能於 2024 年完成。今年，我們估計工休實施的成本將超過 2000 萬美元。

The challenge in putting a finer point on that estimate is both timing and forecasting employee behavior. We don't yet have an agreement with Smart-TD, and we are still working through some technology and logistics before we start the rollout. And while we certainly expect better availability, better service and more flexibility with our crew boards, providing more access to time off likely adds employees and expense. The exact math depends on how employees utilize this greater flexibility as well as how we translate better predictability into increased levels of productivity and service that ultimately drive profitable growth on our railroad.

更準確地估計這一點的挑戰在於計時和預測員工行為。我們尚未與 Smart-TD 達成協議，在開始推出之前，我們仍在研究一些技術和物流。雖然我們當然期望我們的船員委員會有更好的可用性、更好的服務和更大的靈活性，但提供更多的休假機會可能會增加員工和費用。確切的數學取決於員工如何利用這種更大的靈活性，以及​​我們如何將更好的可預測性轉化為生產力和服務水平的提高，最終推動鐵路的盈利增長。

Looking at our 2023 capital allocation. Our capital plan remains $3.6 billion. We also plan to maintain our current dividend of $1.30 per quarter as reflected in our dividend announcement this morning. However, we have paused share repurchases and don't expect to be back in the market for the remainder of 2023.

看看我們 2023 年的資本配置。我們的資本計劃仍為 36 億美元。我們還計劃維持當前每季度 1.30 美元的股息，正如今天上午的股息公告所反映的那樣。不過，我們已暫停股票回購，預計 2023 年剩餘時間內不會重返市場。

While there's no change to our long-term capital allocation strategy, which is first dollar into the business, industry-leading dividend payment and excess cash to shares, we recognize our cash flows are impacted in the current environment with volumes and costs.

雖然我們的長期資本配置策略沒有改變，即第一筆資金投入業務、行業領先的股息支付和超額現金轉股，但我們認識到我們的現金流量在當前環境下受到數量和成本的影響。

Wrapping up, we are well positioned to operate a better railroad in the second half of 2023 and for the long term, our strong fundamentals are unchanged and will allow us to generate significant value for our owners as team UP drives service, growth and improved profitability.

總而言之，我們有能力在 2023 年下半年運營更好的鐵路，從長遠來看，我們強勁的基本面不會改變，隨著 UP 團隊推動服務、增長和提高盈利能力，我們將能夠為業主創造巨大價值。

So with that, I'll turn it back to Lance.

那麼，我會把它轉回蘭斯。

Thank you, Jennifer. As you've heard from the team, the first half of this year has been about laying a foundation for future success. Key to that foundation is safety and the quality-of-life of our employees, and I'm pleased with the progress we've been making on both those fronts.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。正如您從團隊中聽到的那樣，今年上半年的目標是為未來的成功奠定基礎。這一基礎的關鍵是我們員工的安全和生活質量，我對我們在這兩方面取得的進展感到高興。

As you heard from Eric, we continue to make the railroad safer, while improvements in our safety metrics are critical. More encouraging are the positive strides we're making in our safety culture. The team has great momentum across our safety programs, which gives me great pride as I step away.

正如您從埃里克那裡聽到的，我們將繼續讓鐵路變得更安全，而改進我們的安全指標至關重要。更令人鼓舞的是我們在安全文化方面取得的積極進展。該團隊在我們的安全計劃中表現強勁，這讓我在離開時感到非常自豪。

I'm also encouraged by the progress we've made to address quality-of-life issues with our craft professionals, reaching historic labor agreements around paid sick leave, crew redeployment and scheduled work. These agreements drive employee engagement and productivity to produce a better service product for our customers.

我還對我們在解決工藝專業人員的生活質量問題方面取得的進展感到鼓舞，在帶薪病假、船員重新部署和預定工作方面達成了歷史性的勞工協議。這些協議提高了員工的敬業度和生產力，為我們的客戶提供更好的服務產品。

As I wrap up time as CEO of Union Pacific, I'd like to express my deep appreciation to the Board and shareholders of UP for giving me the privilege of leading the company for the past 8 years. I'm proud of how the team has positioned Union Pacific to thrive for the years ahead, and I'm pleased to say that we provided great value all along the way.

在我結束聯合太平洋首席執行官的任期之際，我謹向 UP 董事會和股東表示深深的謝意，感謝他們讓我有幸在過去 8 年裡領導公司。我對團隊如何幫助聯合太平洋公司在未來幾年蓬勃發展感到自豪，我很高興地說我們一路上提供了巨大的價值。

Union Pacific is truly a special place. It's full of hard-working, dedicated railroaders who embrace the daily task of Building America. It's been my greatest honor to lead this team. Their commitment to be the best for our communities, our customers, our investors and for each other is remarkable. 160-plus years of success began and continues with our exceptional employees. I can't wait to see what they accomplish next.

聯合太平洋確實是一個特別的地方。這裡充滿了辛勤工作、敬業的鐵路工人，他們每天都致力於建設美國。領導這個團隊是我最大的榮幸。他們致力於為我們的社區、我們的客戶、我們的投資者以及彼此提供最好的服務，這是非凡的。 160 多年來的成功始於並延續於我們傑出的員工。我迫不及待地想看看他們接下來會取得什麼成就。

Thank you, Lance. And on behalf of the employees of Union Pacific, let me offer our gratitude and appreciation for your leadership. We wish nothing but the best for you and your family as you embark on the next chapter.

謝謝你，蘭斯。讓我代表聯合太平洋公司的員工，對您的領導表示感謝和讚賞。當您踏上新的篇章時，我們只祝愿您和您的家人一切順利。

Before we begin Q&A, I'd like to lay out a couple of guidelines for the call. (Operator Instructions) Second, we understand that there's great interest in the leadership changes that were announced this morning, and we look forward to those discussions. However, today's call is to discuss our quarterly results. So please focus your questions on the business of the earnings call.

在我們開始問答之前，我想為這次通話制定一些指導原則。 （操作員說明）其次，我們了解到大家對今天早上宣布的領導層變動非常感興趣，我們期待著這些討論。然而，今天的電話會議是討論我們的季度業績。因此，請將您的問題集中在財報電話會議的業務上。

So with that, Rob, we are ready for your first question.

羅布，我們已經準備好回答你的第一個問題了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today will come from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克（Allison Poliniak）。

I just want to talk through intermodal. I know, there's obviously consumer weakness there. But is that -- I guess, the pace of the decline moderating for you some? And I guess, with sort of the improved service that you're starting to see in that interest back on the West Coast port, should we start to see or expect to see some of those business wins start to accelerate for you? Just any color just thinking that maybe intermodal starts to perform better for you in the face of even the consumer declines?

我只想談談聯運。我知道，消費者顯然存在弱點。但我想，對於你來說，下降的速度是否有所放緩？我想，隨著您開始看到西海岸港口的興趣有所改善，我們是否應該開始看到或期望看到一些業務勝利開始為您加速？任何一種顏色，只要你想，即使面對消費者的下滑，聯運也許開始對你表現更好？

Allison, you look at it, I'll let you know, we're really staring down at consumer spending. And it's been flat last few months, maybe several months. But it's differentiated as you look at goods versus services, we're clearly seeing, and I talked about it in my opening remarks, less on the goods and more on the services.

艾莉森，你看看，我會讓你知道，我們真的在盯著消費者支出。過去幾個月甚至幾個月都持平。但當你審視商品與服務時，我們清楚地看到，它是有區別的，我在開場白中談到了這一點，少談商品，多談服務。

The other thing that we're watching is just what's happening with demand, and we're looking at that in terms of some of the contract rates would better flatten out in the spot rates that have inched up a little bit. The fact that we have a really strong intermodal service product is a benefit for us. We're encouraged as a company, I'm encouraged as the commercial leader that even though the imports have been down 23% year-to-date, we're only down a couple of percentage points.

我們正在關注的另一件事是需求的變化，我們正在考慮一些合同利率會更好地趨於平緩，即期利率略有上升。事實上，我們擁有非常強大的多式聯運服務產品，這對我們來說是一個好處。作為一家公司，我們受到鼓舞，作為商業領導者，我也受到鼓舞，儘管今年迄今為止的進口量下降了 23%，但我們只下降了幾個百分點。

And talking to our customers, we also believe that they will be shifting a little bit more back to the West Coast port. That's going to be a gradual shift. That will be a little bit more throughout 2023 and probably into 2024. But clearly, we're positioned here for the upside.

與我們的客戶交談後，我們還相信他們將更多地轉移回西海岸港口。這將是一個漸進的轉變。到 2023 年，甚至可能到 2024 年，這一數字將會有所增加。但顯然，我們的定位是為了獲得上行空間。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

I'm not sure this is for Jennifer or Kenny. But Jennifer, you mentioned in your comments you're making great progress in the repricing business to some of these inflationary headwinds that you're facing. Can you give us an idea as to, one, kind of where you stand in repricing the book of business to a lot of these new labor deals? And kind of two, just in a softer macro backdrop, how these conversations are going and your confidence in your ability to fully offset the cost?

我不確定這是給詹妮弗還是肯尼的。但是詹妮弗，您在評論中提到，您在重新定價業務方面取得了巨大進展，以應對您面臨的一些通脹阻力。您能否向我們介紹一下，您在針對許多新的勞務交易重新定價商業手冊方面的立場？第二個問題，在宏觀背景較為疲軟的情況下，這些對話進展如何，您對完全抵消成本的能力有信心嗎？

Yes, Jon, thanks for that question. I'll start and then pitch it to Kenny. So just as a reminder, when you think about our book of business, call it, 25% or so is spot rates. You've got another, call it, 30%, 35% or so that is 1 year or less in duration types of contracts or arrangement, and the rest then are multiyear deals. So there is a cadence to which we're able to touch actively all of our business.

是的，喬恩，謝謝你提出這個問題。我會開始，然後將其推銷給肯尼。提醒一下，當您考慮我們的業務簿時，請稱呼它，25% 左右是即期匯率。還有另一種，稱之為 30%、35% 左右，期限為 1 年或更短的合同或安排類型，其餘的是多年期交易。因此，我們能夠積極地接觸我們所有的業務，形成一種節奏。

Kenny, do you want to maybe talk about the market?

肯尼，你想談談市場嗎？

Yes. Jon, the commercial team has done an excellent job articulating the need for some of the inflationary pressures even if you want to call it the labor pressure that are there and really inserting our service product along with those discussions.

是的。喬恩，商業團隊做得非常出色，闡明了一些通貨膨脹壓力的必要性，即使你想稱其為勞動力壓力，並且在這些討論中真正插入了我們的服務產品。

Now candidly, in a very pragmatic way, our customers empathize with that. They are taking the same price increases in their markets. So they understand what we need to accomplish. There's a tremendous amount of resources that were committed to on the CapEx side, which will help out with a consistent and reliable service. So we feel very good. There's full confidence and price and above inflation in making sure we cover those costs.

現在，坦率地說，我們的客戶以非常務實的方式對此表示同情。他們在各自的市場上也採取了同樣的漲價措施。所以他們了解我們需要完成什麼。資本支出方面投入了大量資源，這將有助於提供一致且可靠的服務。所以我們感覺很好。我們有充分的信心、價格和高於通貨膨脹的價格來確保我們支付這些成本。

Our next question is from Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

Congrats, Lance on the next stage of your career here. I guess, wanted to take a minute and talk a little bit about sort of resources and where you think you are. I know, Eric, you talked about pulling some cost levers that were around locomotives and other assets. But Jennifer, what should we expect with head count as we move forward? And sort of when are you appropriately staffed for what you think the volume outlook might be, not just for this quarter but maybe the next several quarters?

恭喜蘭斯，你的職業生涯進入了下一階段。我想，想花一點時間談談資源類型以及您認為自己在哪裡。我知道，埃里克，你談到了圍繞機車和其他資產拉動一些成本槓桿。但是詹妮弗，隨著我們的前進，我們對員工人數應該有什麼期望？您何時為您認為的銷量前景配備了適當的人員，不僅是本季度，而且可能是接下來的幾個季度？

Yes. So I'll maybe let Eric talk about how he feels about crew staffing levels. But just overall, in terms of our head count, we think as you look to the back half of the year, it's probably going to be, I'll call it, flattish or so from where we're at right now. We're continuing to hire and train and make sure that we've got a good robust pipeline so that we're able to serve our customers appropriately. But just from an absolute FTE basis, that's kind of how we see things in the back half.

是的。所以我也許會讓埃里克談談他對機組人員配置水平的看法。但總的來說，就我們的員工人數而言，我們認為，從我們現在的情況來看，今年下半年，我會稱之為持平左右。我們正在繼續招聘和培訓，並確保我們擁有強大的渠道，以便我們能夠為客戶提供適當的服務。但僅從絕對全職員工的角度來看，這就是我們對後半部分的看法。

Yes. And just picking up from there, Chris. Clearly, what you've seen in our performance is that we have reduced the amount of hiring that we've been doing right now. We stay very connected with Kenny as in his outlook, both for the fourth quarter as well as 2024, and we're going to continue to adjust as we have to what that demand is.

是的。克里斯，就從那裡開始吧。顯然，您在我們的表現中看到的是，我們減少了目前的招聘量。我們與 Kenny 保持密切聯繫，因為他對第四季度和 2024 年的展望都是如此，我們將根據需求繼續進行調整。

It's the same way I view the locomotive work that was accomplished during the quarter. And the team stored 200 locomotives. And if you actually look for now and this month, we're actually above 200. We're treating it the exact same way. See the demand that's out there, plan your resource base accordingly.

這與我看待本季度完成的機車工作的方式相同。該團隊儲存了200台機車。如果你真的看看現在和這個月，我們實際上已經超過了 200。我們以完全相同的方式對待它。查看那裡的需求，相應地規劃您的資源庫。

We should be crystal clear as well, Jennifer and Eric, Chris, that there's still work to be done. When we look into the third and fourth quarter, Eric outlined some of it in his prepared comments, but we are not yet volume-variable with what we're seeing in the marketplace. We took a step towards that in the second quarter. We got to keep taking steps in the third and fourth.

詹妮弗、埃里克、克里斯，我們也應該非常清楚，仍有工作要做。當我們展望第三和第四季度時，埃里克在他準備好的評論中概述了其中的一些內容，但我們的銷量尚未與我們在市場上看到的情況發生變化。我們在第二季度朝這個方向邁出了一步。我們必須在第三和第四步繼續採取措施。

The next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和斯蒂芬斯的對話。

Lance, congrats from my end as well. I wanted to ask a question about the outlook for the second half. You mentioned fuel being a headwind and in addition to that, the labor cost. Do you think EPS in the second half will be lower than the first half? And then maybe, Jennifer, you could comment on the run rate for these labor-related costs as we move into 2024. I'm just curious if we can take this $50 million to $70 million and annualize it or if that is expected to change?

蘭斯，我也祝賀你。我想問一個關於下半年前景的問題。您提到燃料是一個不利因素，除此之外還有勞動力成本。您認為下半年EPS會低於上半年嗎？然後，詹妮弗，當我們進入 2024 年時，也許您可以評論一下這些與勞動力相關的成本的運行率。我只是好奇我們是否可以將這 5000 萬至 7000 萬美元進行年度化，或者這種情況是否預計會改變？

Jennifer, why don't I start? We're not going to provide some incremental or new guidance as regards earnings into the back half. But Jennifer, you did a good job of outlining what the headwinds are, and why don't we unpack that a little bit?

詹妮弗，我為什麼不開始呢？我們不會就下半年的收益提供一些增量或新的指導。但是詹妮弗，你很好地概述了逆風是什麼，為什麼我們不稍微解釋一下呢？

Yes. I mean, certainly, the one headwind we did size for you is the $0.50 impact, the negative year-over-year impact we expect to see on EPS from fuel in the third and fourth quarters.

是的。我的意思是，當然，我們為您確定的一個阻力是 0.50 美元的影響，我們預計第三季度和第四季度燃料對每股收益的同比負面影響。

In terms of moving into 2024, so if you think about that $50 million from the sick leave agreements that I mentioned, most of those agreements were really effective in the second half. We had our non-ops that started a little bit in the first half. So I think you can think about that as being something that will carry over and repeat itself in the first half of 2024.

就進入 2024 年而言，如果你考慮一下我提到的病假協議中的 5000 萬美元，那麼大多數協議在下半年確實有效。我們在上半場就開始了一些非行動。因此，我認為您可以將其視為將在 2024 年上半年延續並重演的事情。

Beyond that, in terms of the implementation of work-rest, we're really reluctant to -- and really, it would be difficult for us to size that more precisely, because it is going to depend on the timing of how we roll that out as well as the employee behavior that we see with that. And so that's something that we'll just keep you updated, but I want to make sure you do understand that, that will be a bit of a headwind. But as we get greater clarity of that as we go through our rollout and start that rollout and obviously, we still need to get Smart-TD done as well, we'll be in conversation about that.

除此之外，就工作休息的實施而言，我們真的不願意 - 事實上，我們很難更準確地確定其規模，因為這將取決於我們如何實施該計劃的時間以及我們看到的員工行為。因此，我們會及時向您通報最新情況，但我想確保您確實理解這一點，這會有點不利。但是，當我們完成部署並開始部署時，我們會更加清楚地了解這一點，顯然，我們仍然需要完成 Smart-TD，我們將對此進行討論。

So Justin, I think as we look into the back half of this year, improving productivity, the hiring pipeline tones down a little bit, but we're still hiring. It probably looks like year-over-year about equal, I think, is what Jennifer was saying.

賈斯汀，我認為，當我們展望今年下半年，提高生產力時，招聘渠道會有所減少，但我們仍在招聘。我認為，詹妮弗所說的，與去年同期相比，情況可能基本持平。

Not sure what's going on in the marketplace. So we got to -- we've got to do everything we can to capture all the business that's available to us. And then fuel is going to be a real headwind in the back half.

不確定市場上發生了什麼。所以我們必須——我們必須盡我們所能來獲得我們可以利用的所有業務。然後燃料將成為後半段真正的阻力。

Offsetting that, we get a tailwind from implementing the brakeperson agreement. And as we implement the work-rest schedule, I am confident that generates both productivity and service product improvement. The issue is timing and magnitude.

為了抵​​消這一點，我們通過執行製動員協議獲得了順風車。當我們實施工作休息計劃時，我相信這會提高生產力和服務產品。問題在於時間和幅度。

Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Lance, congrats on career here. And I guess, I know you guys want to ask about the quarter, but just looking back, Lance, over your course of being at Union Pacific, what do you think went really right? And what do you think maybe could have been done better to keep track maybe with potentially more volume growth looking back?

蘭斯，祝賀你在這裡的職業生涯。我想，我知道你們想問有關本季度的問題，但蘭斯，回顧一下您在聯合太平洋公司的經歷，您認為什麼是真正正確的？回顧過去，您認為可能可以做得更好，以跟踪潛在的更多銷量增長？

And maybe looking forward, what do you think are the biggest challenges or opportunities for the industry, maybe not even just UNP? Is it technology, is it regulation, is it M&A? Would love to get your thoughts.

也許展望未來，您認為該行業面臨的最大挑戰或機遇是什麼，甚至可能不僅僅是 UNP？是技術，是監管，還是併購？很想了解您的想法。

Yes, Brandon, thank you for that question. And we'll try to keep this to be the only question on that. So I'll try to make the answer fulsome. In terms of what am I proud of, what did I think we got right as a team, one is I love the team that we've assembled. It's world-class. I love the work that we've done on sustainability. I love the fact that we are an inclusive workforce. You can see it in our Board. You can see it on our management team.

是的，布蘭登，謝謝你提出這個問題。我們將盡力將此作為唯一的問題。所以我會盡力讓答案變得充實。就我引以為豪的方面而言，我認為我們作為一個團隊做對了什麼，其中之一是我喜歡我們組建的團隊。這是世界一流的。我喜歡我們在可持續發展方面所做的工作。我喜歡我們是一支具有包容性的員工隊伍。您可以在我們的董事會中看到它。您可以在我們的管理團隊中看到這一點。

I like the progress that we've made on safety. We've got more to do there. And I love the fact that we transitioned from our previous transportation model and way of running the railroad to a PSR model that's a better service product for our customers.

我喜歡我們在安全方面取得的進展。我們在那裡還有更多事要做。我喜歡這樣一個事實：我們從以前的運輸模式和鐵路運營方式轉變為 PSR 模式，這為我們的客戶提供了更好的服務產品。

In terms of what we needed to do better, we were not consistent and reliable through my 8.5 years of serving as the Chairman, President and COO. And that needs to be remedied. As we look into the future, that's exactly what we need to continue to do. We've got a strategy, serve, grow, win together, that's built off the foundation of consistent and reliable service.

在我們需要做得更好的方面，在我擔任董事長、總裁和首席運營官的 8.5 年裡，我們並沒有保持一致和可靠。這需要糾正。展望未來，這正是我們需要繼續做的事情。我們制定了服務、成長、共贏的戰略，這是建立在一致、可靠的服務基礎上的。

I am confident, we're oriented, organized and capable of doing that. We've got to prove it to our customers. Because Brandon, our customers tell us, as we demonstrate reliability, there's more of their order book available to us, plus there's more market participants that will start doing business with us. That's the unlock for growth. And growth is the unlock for significant value creation in the future for everybody, for all of our stakeholders.

我有信心，我們有方向、有組織、有能力做到這一點。我們必須向我們的客戶證明這一點。因為布蘭登，我們的客戶告訴我們，當我們證明可靠性時，我們可以使用更多的訂單，而且有更多的市場參與者將開始與我們開展業務。這就是增長的解鎖。增長是未來為每個人、所有利益相關者創造重大價值的鑰匙。

Our next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Again, from me as well, congrats, Lance, on a great career. Just on the volume guide itself, can you confirm just how much that kind of volume outlook did move? Because you did -- you're now going to be kind of below a raised benchmark. So just trying to get a sense of kind of how much that did move.

我也再次祝賀蘭斯，取得了偉大的職業生涯。就成交量指南本身而言，您能否確認這種成交量前景變化了多少？因為你這樣做了——你現在將低於提高的基準。所以只是想了解一下它到底移動了多少。

And also, is industrial production the right benchmark for your kind of volume growth in the long term just given the consumer exposure here? Or do we have to look at some combination of IP plus GDP?

此外，考慮到這裡的消費者敞口，工業生產是否是長期銷量增長的正確基準？或者我們是否必須考慮知識產權加GDP 的某種組合？

Jennifer, do you want to start that?

詹妮弗，你想開始嗎？

Yes, I can start it. So you raised a good point, Ravi. I mean, we do think looking backwards certainly that industrial production has been a better gauge. But you're right, we have great franchise diversity, which we've talked to and Kenny mentioned too. And with the growing intermodal portfolio, there are certainly components of that. But it's really driven by consumer spending, and a lot of that consumer spending comes from industrial production. So it's hard to really separate from that.

是的，我可以開始。所以你提出了一個很好的觀點，拉維。我的意思是，我們確實認為回顧過去，工業生產確實是一個更好的衡量標準。但你是對的，我們有很好的特許經營多樣性，我們已經談過這一點，肯尼也提到過。隨著多式聯運組合的不斷增長，其中肯定有一些組成部分。但它實際上是由消費者支出驅動的，而其中很大一部分消費者支出來自工業生產。所以很難真正與之分開。

But in terms of what's changed from where we started the year, certainly, coal is something that with natural gas prices falling as it did late January, early February, that certainly took a big chunk of that demand away from us. Now you've heard us talk about the heat and you're seeing that, you're seeing maybe a little bit of inflection in natural gas prices. So we're watching that.

但就今年年初以來的變化而言，隨著天然氣價格像一月底、二月初那樣下跌，煤炭肯定會從我們手中奪走很大一部分需求。現在您已經聽到我們談論高溫，您也看到了，您可能看到天然氣價格出現了一些變化。所以我們正在關注這一點。

The other piece, though, is on that consumer side. Onboarding a new intermodal customer coming into the year, we expected that to be a big tailwind to our volumes. And just the way that, that consumer spending and consumer goods purchases has dropped, that's just had a really outsized impact.

不過，另一塊是在消費者方面。今年迎來了新的多式聯運客戶，我們預計這將成為我們銷量的一大推動力。正如消費者支出和消費品購買量下降一樣，這確實產生了巨大的影響。

All I'll say is that we're looking at consumer spending by the week. And I feel very encouraged that we have onboarded over the last couple of years a couple of transformative customers on to our domestic intermodal network. And so as we see that movement move up, we're going to be in a great position. And so that's encouraging for us as a company.

我要說的是，我們正在關注每週的消費者支出。我感到非常鼓舞的是，在過去的幾年裡，我們已經吸引了一些變革性的客戶加入我們的國內多式聯運網絡。因此，當我們看到運動向上時，我們將處於有利地位。這對我們公司來說是令人鼓舞的。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

First, just wanted to follow up on pricing to the labor inflation. Do you think getting rate is enough to offset those costs? Should you need to get some productivity benefits from the work-rest, the brakemen and then possibly, even the utility rule?

首先，只是想跟進勞動力通脹的定價情況。您認為獲得利率足以抵消這些成本嗎？您是否需要從工作休息、制動員甚至公用事業規則中獲得一些生產力優勢？

And then just for Kenny, can you just comment more about price mix? You mentioned specifically the coal and intermodal pricing were resetting lower in the quarter. Does that continue throughout the rest of the year? You can give some parameters in terms of how to think about that plus mix in the back half.

那麼肯尼，您能否對價格組合發表更多評論？您特別提到煤炭和多式聯運定價在本季度重置較低。這種情況會持續到今年剩餘時間嗎？您可以在如何考慮後半部分的混合方面給出一些參數。

Kenny, why don't I start with the -- what about the agreements and getting price and productivity out of them. The short answer, Brian, is we are confident that we can continue to price above inflation. We've just seen a few agreements like paid sick leave add to the inflation in our comp and benefits. And Kenny's team is tasked now to get out there and make sure that we recoup that.

肯尼，我為什麼不從協議開始，並從中獲取價格和生產力。布萊恩，簡短的回答是，我們有信心繼續將定價高於通脹水平。我們剛剛看到帶薪病假等一些協議增加了我們的薪酬和福利的通貨膨脹。肯尼的團隊現在的任務是走出去並確保我們收回損失。

In terms of productivity, the brakeperson agreement is just a clear path on productivity. We can reduce 3 people to 2 people on crews where we don't need 3 people, and we can either redeploy them or lower our hiring demands. So that clearly, just in that one example -- there are other examples like in work-rest, Brian, we'll be able to get productivity out of that.

就生產力而言，制動員協議只是生產力的一條清晰路徑。當我們不需要3人的時候，我們可以將3人減少到2人，我們可以重新部署他們或者降低我們的招聘要求。很明顯，僅在這個例子中，還有其他例子，例如工作休息，布萊恩，我們將能夠從中提高生產力。

Today, there's a percentage of our workforce when they're called to take a train, they are not available to us. And we don't know that before we call them. And that creates failure cost and disruption in the network. I'm going to presume, and I think the experience where work-rest schedules are in place, that unpredictability dropped dramatically. When that happens, we get better the utilization of our assets and we lower failure costs from the network. So the only question for us is order of magnitude and when as we implement.

如今，我們有一部分員工在被叫去坐火車時，我們卻沒有空。在我們打電話給他們之前我們並不知道這一點。這會造成故障成本和網絡中斷。我想，而且我認為，在實行工作休息時間表的情況下，這種不可預測性會急劇下降。當這種情況發生時，我們可以更好地利用我們的資產，並降低網絡的故障成本。因此，對我們來說唯一的問題是數量級以及何時實施。

So yes, a couple of things here. Let's just take hold for first up. Yes. When you've heard us talk about this, we do have a couple of mechanisms that are in place that allow us and our customers to be competitive with natural gas prices. One of the things that we have seen out there is the fact that there has been a little slight uptick in terms of demand based on the extreme heat that we've seen. We've seen that also impact again in the near term natural gas prices out there. So we're seeing more demand out there.

所以，是的，這裡有幾件事。讓我們先堅持一下。是的。當您聽到我們談論這一點時，我們確實有一些機制可以讓我們和我們的客戶在天然氣價格方面具有競爭力。我們看到的一件事是，由於我們所看到的極端高溫，需求略有上升。我們已經看到這也再次影響了近期的天然氣價格。所以我們看到了更多的需求。

We're working closely with Eric and his team as we speak to add more sets and add more inventory into the network. And we're looking at the [4] curves as you just see how long that will last. So we're always looking at that, and we're looking at that by the week.

我們正在與埃里克和他的團隊密切合作，我們正在討論添加更多套件並在網絡中添加更多庫存。我們正在查看 [4] 曲線，您只需看看它會持續多長時間。所以我們一直在關注這個問題，而且我們每週都會關注這個問題。

Switching to domestic intermodal on the pricing side. We like the fact that we have our customers that are competitive in the marketplace and that we're competitive against truck. Some of those mechanisms will go up, I think, tightened in some, doing a loop market like where we are now, it might move down a little bit. But the key is to make sure that we can capture the volume against truck and make sure that we're competitive.

在定價方面轉向國內多式聯運。我們喜歡這樣一個事實：我們的客戶在市場上具有競爭力，並且我們與卡車相比具有競爭力。我認為，其中一些機制會上升，一些機制會收緊，像我們現在這樣形成循環市場，它可能會下降一點。但關鍵是要確保我們能夠捕獲卡車的銷量並確保我們具有競爭力。

Our next question is from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Congratulations, Lance. Question on the opportunity for volume. Like if you think about a 0 GDP environment over the next, say, 12 months, what can service improvement deliver in terms of growth? Where are maybe some of the verticals you think that you can make a difference in the service level and ultimately start to see more idiosyncratic opportunities to grow the business?

恭喜你，蘭斯。關於成交量機會的問題。例如，如果您考慮未來（例如 12 個月）GDP 為 0 的環境，那麼服務改進可以在增長方面帶來什麼？您認為可以在服務水平上有所作為並最終開始看到更多獨特的業務增長機會的垂直行業在哪裡？

Yes, Fadi, thanks for the question. Let's just walk through -- if you look at our outlook slide, and I'll supplement that with a few more specifics on our bio diesel, the renewable diesel market, we've got 7 different facilities on us. We're going to land another facility here by the end of the year. We're very encouraged by that. That's a key part of our growth strategy. And we mentioned that a couple of years ago, during Investor Day, very proud of our commercial team for securing that.

是的，法迪，謝謝你的提問。讓我們來看看——如果你看一下我們的前景幻燈片，我將補充一些關於我們的生物柴油、可再生柴油市場的更多細節，我們有 7 個不同的設施。我們將在今年年底前在這裡建立另一個設施。我們對此感到非常鼓舞。這是我們增長戰略的關鍵部分。我們在幾年前的投資者日期間提到過，我們為我們的商業團隊確保這一點感到非常自豪。

Construction, our rock business, for example, those are areas where Eric's team is just delivering great service, and it's showing up in terms of carloads. We're adding a few more sets there. We're seeing more carloads that are coming on because of that, and some of that is market-related. There's just more infrastructure that's out there.

例如，建築業，我們的岩石業務，埃里克團隊在這些領域提供了優質的服務，並且以車輛裝載量來體現。我們在那裡添加了更多的集合。因此，我們看到越來越多的車輛裝載，其中一些與市場相關。那裡有更多的基礎設施。

If you talk about the service product, we look at auto parts coming out of Mexico. We've seen a pretty fast and upcoming growing EV producer that we're growing with on the auto parts side that we're excited about. We've secured a new automotive OEM on our line back in the spring that has brought business to us. That same OEM will be bringing on business in the first quarter. So we're pretty excited there.

如果您談論服務產品，我們會關注來自墨西哥的汽車零部件。我們看到了一家正在快速增長且即將成長的電動汽車生產商，我們在汽車零部件方面正在與他們一起成長，對此我們感到興奮。今年春天，我們已經在我們的生產線上找到了一家新的汽車原始設備製造商，這為我們帶來了業務。該 OEM 將在第一季度開展業務。所以我們對此非常興奮。

And then, kind of last but not least, I'll just say that overall, the team has been engaged on bringing new business in different ways. We have a new industrial park that's going to be landing on us in the Buckeye, Arizona area. So that's great. And we've got a customer that will be doing reusable plastics, so just you think about the ESG connection. So we can create our own business development with the service that I mentioned with Eric, and we're excited about it.

然後，最後但並非最不重要的一點是，我只想說，總的來說，團隊一直致力於以不同的方式帶來新業務。我們將在亞利桑那州巴克艾地區建立一個新的工業園區。那太好了。我們有一個客戶將生產可重複使用的塑料，所以您只需考慮 ESG 聯繫即可。因此，我們可以利用我與埃里克提到的服務來創建我們自己的業務發展，我們對此感到很興奮。

And it's proven, Kenny, your BD pipeline is up, what?

事實證明，肯尼，你的 BD 渠道已經啟動，什麼？

It's up around 20% to 25%. So the team is just doing a fabulous job, going out there and expanding the market better.

上漲了大約 20% 到 25%。因此，該團隊做得非常出色，走出去並更好地拓展市場。

And that's in a down volume market.

那是在銷量下降的市場中。

That's in a downmarket. And -- so we're pumped up about it.

那是在低端市場。而且——所以我們對此感到興奮不已。

That's good.

那挺好的。

And I'm surprised you didn't mention intermodal as being one of the opportunities that service gets better. Is this because the truck market competitiveness right now? You need a little bit of support there? Or is there more to it than that?

我很驚訝你沒有提到聯運是改善服務的機會之一。這是因為現在卡車市場競爭激烈嗎？您需要一點支持嗎？或者還有比這更多的事情嗎？

Okay. Well, you're going to get me riled up today. So first of all, we talked about a couple of transformative wins that we feel good about. I'll tell you, as the management team, bringing on Inland Empire, which is a new product, bringing on a new Port Houston service product that Eric has given us with 5 new lanes, bringing on Twin Cities. Absolutely, we feel good about domestic intermodal. At some point, you need the demand to be there. What you're hearing me say is that we're prepared as that demand comes on. And we're adding new products, we're adding new services, we're adding new customers. We're excited.

好的。好吧，你今天會讓我生氣的。首先，我們討論了一些我們感覺良好的變革性勝利。我會告訴你，作為管理團隊，帶來了內陸帝國，這是一個新產品，帶來了埃里克為我們提供的新的休斯頓港服務產品，有5條新車道，帶來了雙城。當然，我們對國內多式聯運感覺良好。在某些時候，您需要存在需求。你聽到我說的是，我們已經做好了應對需求的準備。我們正在增加新產品，我們正在增加新服務，我們正在增加新客戶。我們很興奮。

Kenny, at the risk of making this drag on too long, you should mention Falcon Premium too.

肯尼，冒著拖得太久的風險，你也應該提到 Falcon Premium。

So let me back up and just say there's been a lot of debate out there, Lance, in the marketplace. And we feel very good about the service products that we have with Falcon Premium. On a broader sense, there are other Class 1s associated with that. So it's not just one Class 1. It's the other Class 1s that we're interacting with too, that we feel good about.

因此，讓我再說一遍，蘭斯，市場上存在很多爭論。我們對 Falcon Premium 提供的服務產品感覺非常好。從更廣泛的意義上講，還有其他與此相關的 1 類。所以這不僅僅是一個 1 班。還有我們正在與之互動的其他 1 班，我們對此感覺良好。

We've got a shorter route structure. We've got a better schedule. We've got the relationship with the customers. Eric and his team are continuously improving that service product. So we're encouraged how that looks in the future.

我們有更短的路線結構。我們有更好的時間表。我們與客戶建立了關係。埃里克和他的團隊正在不斷改進該服務產品。因此，我們對未來的前景感到鼓舞。

The next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra, Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Lance, congrats all your success. Wish you the best. I guess, Eric and Jennifer, I know borrow-outs have been pretty expensive. And I think last time we checked, you had like 250 borrow-outs in the network. Can you just give us an update on that? It feels like maybe that's an opportunity over the next 6 to 9 months.

蘭斯，祝賀你一切成功。祝你好運。我想，埃里克和詹妮弗，我知道借出的費用相當昂貴。我想上次我們檢查時，網絡中有大約 250 筆借出。您能給我們介紹一下最新情況嗎？感覺這也許是未來 6 到 9 個月的機會。

And just generally, in terms of non-fuel costs, it feels like the network is running a little bit heavy on non-fuel costs. I know, there's obviously cost inflation and labor inflation, some idiosyncratic things. But as maybe the volume comes back and you can become much more volume-variable, is there an opportunity to kind of hold the line on the non-fuel cost structure given some of the positive things that you can do on the borrow-outs and kind of other cost items that are proving more stubborn right now?

一般來說，就非燃料成本而言，感覺網絡運行的非燃料成本有點高。我知道，顯然存在成本通脹和勞動力通脹，以及一些特殊的事情。但由於銷量可能會回升，並且銷量的變化可能會更大，考慮到您可以在藉用和貸款方面採取一些積極的措施，是否有機會在非燃料成本結構上保持不變？還有哪些其他成本項目現在被證明更加頑固？

Yes. Thank you for the question. Let's back up in time, as we came into the year when we think about our first quarter earnings report, we were talking about borrow-outs. In the context of while we were making great progress in our hiring, we still have pockets of the system, specifically about 7 locations, where we were utilizing borrow-outs because of the difficulty to hire.

是的。感謝你的提問。讓我們回顧一下，當我們進入這一年時，當我們思考第一季度收益報告時，我們正在談論借出。雖然我們在招聘方面取得了巨大進展，但我們仍然有系統的一部分，特別是大約 7 個地點，由於招聘困難，我們正在利用借用。

Now in any given year, there's some level of borrow-outs used even in just dealing with seasonality, for example, the grain harvest that comes in the fall. If you look at the quarter, what we've reported is that we've taken our borrow-out count down by 50%, approximately. Now that is a process that continues. As we look for volume to continue to grow, we have those as options. But as we're looking every week, to your point, to control our cost, those are ones that we adjust literally on a weekly basis.

現在，在任何一年中，即使只是為了應對季節性，例如秋季的穀物收成，也會使用一定程度的借用。如果你看看這個季度，我們報告的內容是，我們的借出計數減少了大約 50%。現在這個過程仍在繼續。當我們尋求銷量繼續增長時，我們有這些選擇。但正如我們每週都會考慮的那樣，為了控制我們的成本，我們每週都會調整這些成本。

There may be a place as we fast-forward 3 months, 4 months, 6 months, where you may use them and very small numbers. But our goal is to reduce our borrow-outs as quickly as we possibly can.

當我們快進 3 個月、4 個月、6 個月時，可能會有一個地方你可以使用它們和非常小的數字。但我們的目標是盡快減少借出。

As far as the non-fuel cost, it follows the same recipe that we've shared before. One, we just finished talking about it, which is how we think about our labor costs and ensuring that we're being conscious of that. Two, you go to your next expensive cost or at least outside of fuel, is you're going to look at your locomotive fleet. The reduction that we've made in the quarter is a strong move in the right direction. The reduction we've been made in July is another strong move on top of that, and we look forward to reporting to that in future quarters. So all eyes on we want to grow the business, and we need to be volume-variable until we see more of that growth coming.

就非燃料成本而言，它遵循我們之前分享過的相同配方。第一，我們剛剛討論完這個問題，這就是我們對勞動力成本的看法，並確保我們意識到這一點。第二，你要考慮下一個昂貴的成本，或者至少在燃料之外，你要看看你的機車車隊。我們在本季度所做的削減是朝著正確方向邁出的強有力的一步。我們在 7 月份進行的削減是除此之外的另一項重大舉措，我們期待在未來幾個季度對此進行報告。因此，所有人都在關注我們想要發展業務，我們需要改變銷量，直到我們看到更多的增長。

Yes. And Amit, just to build on what Eric is saying, there is, if you look across all of our cost categories, setting depreciation aside, we know we have opportunities within all of those to be more efficient. As we continue to improve cycle times, that has a very direct flow-through in terms of our car hire expenses on the purchased services and materials side.

是的。阿米特，以埃里克所說的為基礎，如果你縱觀我們所有的成本類別，拋開折舊，我們知道我們有機會在所有這些類別中提高效率。隨著我們不斷縮短週期時間，這對我們購買的服務和材料方面的汽車租賃費用有非常直接的影響。

Eric mentioned the locomotives, but there's other opportunities we have in there to work on our cost. And even comp and benefits with some of the headwinds that we know we have, there's opportunities to be more productive and use that crew base more efficiently.

埃里克提到了機車，但我們還有其他機會來降低成本。即使我們知道我們面臨一些不利因素，但仍有機會提高生產力並更有效地利用船員基礎。

And to your point, volume can certainly be a friend when it comes to the cost structure. But I think the fact that you've seen us make some progress as volumes are going down, and you saw us build train length even as volumes came down and in particular, intermodal volume, those are the other things that we're going to keep working on here -- well, always, but certainly in the back half of the year to continue to drive better efficiency and get better alignment between the resources and the cost structure and the volumes that we're moving.

就您而言，在成本結構方面，數量當然可以成為一個朋友。但我認為事實上，隨著運量的下降，您已經看到我們取得了一些進展，並且您看到我們在運量下降的情況下增加了列車長度，特別是聯運運量，這些是我們要做的其他事情繼續努力——嗯，總是，但肯定是在今年下半年，繼續提高效率，並在資源、成本結構和我們正在移動的數量之間取得更好的協調。

Our next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自巴斯克梅專業隊與薩斯奎哈納隊。

Lance, as you wrap up your 8 years as UP's Chairman, President, and CDO, how do you expect the push and pull of the senior decision-making process between marketing operations and HR change with those roles split between 3 people and Beth elevated from just leaving the HR and sustainability efforts into that newly stand-alone President position?

Lance，當您結束擔任 UP 董事長、總裁和 CDO 的 8 年之際，您如何看待營銷運營和人力資源變革之間的高級決策流程的推動和拉動，因為這些角色由 3 個人承擔，而 Beth 則從只是將人力資源和可持續發展工作留給新的獨立總裁職位嗎？

Yes, Bascome, thanks for the question. First, you got to note, Jim Vena is our CEO. He runs the company. That reports to Jim. So I don't anticipate any meaningful dislocations or push-pull created by org structure. And having said that, there are some natural creative tension in the business all the time. There's creative tension between the operating team and the commercial team. There can be creative tension between the team that is controlling versus the team that's spending.

是的，巴斯科姆，謝謝你的提問。首先，你必須注意到，吉姆·維納是我們的首席執行官。他經營這家公司。這向吉姆報告。因此，我預計組織結構不會造成任何有意義的錯位或推拉。話雖如此，商業中始終存在著一些天然的創造性張力。運營團隊和商業團隊之間存在著創造性的緊張關係。控制團隊與支出團隊之間可能存在創造性緊張。

Just -- you can name any number. The most important thing is we've got a fabulous operating executive joining us as our CEO. He's got a great track record, and he's going to be laser-focused on making sure that we're providing the best service product to our customers so that we can translate it into growth. He's going to do a very good job of making sure the team works together.

只是——你可以說出任何數字。最重要的是，我們有一位出色的運營主管加入我們擔任首席執行官。他擁有出色的業績記錄，他將集中精力確保我們為客戶提供最好的服務產品，以便我們能夠將其轉化為增長。他將非常出色地確保團隊合作。

We're working well together today. I anticipate we'll be working well together a month from now. And Beth's role is going to be making sure that she's supporting all of that effort effectively through workforce resources, through the work we do with communities, through the work we do in DC. So I anticipate better, not worse, as we move forward.

今天我們合作得很好。我預計一個月後我們會合作良好。貝絲的角色將確保她通過勞動力資源、通過我們與社區所做的工作、通過我們在華盛頓所做的工作，有效地支持所有這些努力。因此，隨著我們的前進，我預計會更好，而不是更糟。

The next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Congrats Lance team and the Board on the next steps and on naming Jim as CEO. So many moving parts with the labor agreements. Obviously, Jenn ran through some of the cost side from the pay increase of last year to what you're now adding on after the main contracts. Maybe -- can you take a minute, walk us through some of the benefits that you see?

祝賀蘭斯團隊和董事會採取了後續行動並任命吉姆為首席執行官。勞工協議中有很多變動的部分。顯然，Jenn 回顧了一些成本方面的問題，從去年的加薪到現在在主要合同之後增加的費用。也許——您能花一點時間向我們介紹一下您看到的一些好處嗎？

And I presume these are all Union Pacific add-ons. Maybe differentiate what is UP add-on versus the industry. And then just thoughts on your outlook. I think you removed the operating ratio from your target. Is there a thought on the scale that you want to put together on costs? Or are we just leaving that off all together?

我認為這些都是聯合太平洋航空​​公司的附加服務。也許可以區分什麼是 UP 附加組件和行業。然後只是對你的看法的想法。我認為您從目標中刪除了運營率。您是否想將成本放在一起考慮？或者我們只是把它放在一起嗎？

Yes. So I'll start off, Ken. So when we did our 8-K in June, we took the operating ratio improvement off the table for the year, and that hasn't changed. Certainly, you heard us talk about some of the headwinds that we have. So we are not -- with the addition of the labor expenses, volumes moving away from us and then obviously, some fuel headwinds relative to OR in the back half of the year, we don't expect year-over-year improvement.

是的。那麼我就開始吧，肯。因此，當我們在 6 月份進行 8-K 計劃時，我們就不再考慮今年的運營率改善，這一點並沒有改變。當然，您聽到我們談論了我們面臨的一些不利因素。因此，隨著勞動力成本的增加，銷量逐漸遠離我們，而且顯然，今年下半年相對於 OR 的一些燃料逆風，我們預計不會出現同比改善。

Our task, and I kind of touched on this a little bit, with the question from Amit, is to get better from where we sit today. And I'm not going to forecast what our OR is going to be in the back half of the year, but we're going to work really hard to improve each and every day. And that's both in terms of being more productive with that cost structure as well as going out and selling in the marketplace and doing all we can to drive profitability on that side.

我們的任務，我在阿米特提出的問題上稍微觸及了這一點，是在我們今天所處的位置上變得更好。我不會預測今年下半年我們的手術室情況，但我們將非常努力地工作，每天都在進步。這既是為了提高成本結構的生產力，也是為了走出去並在市場上銷售，並儘我們所能來提高這方面的盈利能力。

I don't know, Eric, do you want to...

我不知道，埃里克，你想...

Yes. And on the agreement side, so if we start with sick days, the opportunity that Lance mentioned [obvious reinforce] is we see the opportunity to improve the attractiveness of our jobs. And as a result of that, that can have a positive impact on how we do our hiring.

是的。在協議方面，如果我們從病假開始，蘭斯提到的機會[明顯強化]是我們看到了提高工作吸引力的機會。因此，這會對我們的招聘方式產生積極影響。

If you go to the brakeperson deal, clearly, the biggest opportunity there is to reduce brakeperson labor in line with where the jobs are no longer needed and also allows us to partially offset some of our hiring in the short term. And of course, we get the benefit of establishing a ground-based enhanced utility position.

如果你進行製動員交易，顯然，最大的機會是根據不再需要的工作崗位來減少制動員勞動力，並且還允許我們在短期內部分抵消部分招聘。當然，我們還可以從建立地面增強實用陣地中獲益。

And as Jennifer pointed out, the payback period on that is approximately 2 years. And if you look right now, we're about 60% of the way through that implementation. And then certainly on the 11 and 4 scheduled work, it really brought us down to improved availability, as Lance pointed out, and more efficiently managing our staff levels with more latitude on how we do that under this new agreement.

正如 Jennifer 指出的那樣，投資回收期約為 2 年。如果您現在看一下，我們的實施進度大約已完成 60%。當然，在 11 日和 4 日的預定工作中，正如 Lance 指出的那樣，它確實使我們提高了可用性，並更有效地管理我們的員工水平，並根據這項新協議，對我們如何做到這一點有了更大的自由度。

The next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

Best of luck to you, Lance. Jennifer, I just wanted to just make sure I understood the answer to that last question. Are you -- so relative to like the 62% adjusted OR in Q2, are you not -- you're just not giving any color? Or are you saying it's probably going to get worse, the OR second half versus that 62%? I'm just not sure what you're trying to message there.

祝你好運，蘭斯。詹妮弗，我只是想確保我理解最後一個問題的答案。相對於第二季度的 62% 調整後的 OR，你是不是——你只是沒有給出任何顏色？或者你是說 OR 下半年的情況可能會變得更糟，與 62% 相比？我只是不確定你想在那里傳達什麼信息。

And then just Kenny, CN last night was just -- talked about raising their expectations for the U.S. grain -- upcoming U.S. grain harvest just with some better rain recently. Just your thoughts on how you think about the grain harvest in your territory going forward?

昨晚，中國肯尼剛剛談到提高對美國糧食的預期，美國即將迎來糧食豐收，最近降雨量有所增加。您對您所在地區今後的糧食收成有何看法？

Yes. So going back to -- you're really asking a sequential question. And again, I -- we had a 63% reported OR. If you're stripping out the brakeperson agreement, that was 1.1 points in the quarter. If you look at what we have done historically as a company, you tend to see some of your better margins in the third quarter, tends to go up a little bit then in the fourth quarter when you're just thinking about kind of that normal seasonality.

是的。所以回到——你實際上是在問一個連續的問題。再說一遍，我們報告的 OR 率為 63%。如果剔除制動員協議，本季度的得分為 1.1 分。如果你看看我們作為一家公司歷史上所做的事情，你往往會在第三季度看到一些更好的利潤率，當你只是考慮正常情況時，往往會在第四季度有所上升。季節性。

We are going to work to make sequential improvement. I'm not telling you that we're making sequential improvement, but that is the task that has to be ahead of us. We have to work to improve the cost structure. And we've already made some progress. I think you certainly saw that. I know, it's a little bit of a messy quarter with all that was going on in it. But when you strip some of the noise out, there was -- particularly when you're comparing first quarter to second quarter, we did make gains, not year-over-year but sequentially, we did make some gains there. So I think that's the way to think about it into the back half of this year.

我們將努力進行連續改進。我並不是在告訴你我們正在逐步改進，但這是我們必鬚麵對的任務。我們必須努力改善成本結構。我們已經取得了一些進展。我想你肯定看到了。我知道，這個季度發生的事情有點混亂。但是，當你剔除一些噪音時，特別是當你比較第一季度和第二季度時，我們確實取得了收益，不是同比，而是連續一段時間，我們確實在那裡取得了一些收益。所以我認為這就是今年下半年思考這個問題的方式。

So Scott, I'd tell you, we look at the weekly crop report and, call it 5, maybe 6 weeks ago, it wasn't looking great. And since then, we've had rain in areas that we serve and participate in. So it's looking much better.

所以斯科特，我告訴你，我們查看了每週的作物報告，稱之為 5 週、也許 6 週前，看起來不太好。從那時起，我們服務和參與的地區開始下雨。所以情況看起來好多了。

You heard in my comments that we think there is an opportunity for incremental grain in the fourth quarter. And so we're steering that down and working with Eric's team to make sure we can capture it.

您在我的評論中聽說，我們認為第四季度有增量糧食的機會。因此，我們正在控制這一點，並與埃里克的團隊合作，以確保我們能夠捕捉到它。

The next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC.

下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Walter Spracklin。

Best of luck there, Lance, on the future. Just a question here -- wrap up here on coal. I know you'd indicated that, that was an area of discrepancy from where you were looking at before. Really on the -- the revenue per carload revenue per RTM, that's taken a notable step-down. And I know your peers have talked a lot about -- you talked about a 15% decline in their rates on coal.

祝蘭斯未來好運。這裡只是一個問題——就煤炭而言。我知道您已經指出，這與您之前看到的情況存在差異。實際上，每輛 RTM 的每車收入已顯著下降。我知道你們的同行已經談了很多——你們談到了煤炭價格下降 15%。

Now a lot of that is tied to export nat, which is not in your mix, but you did see a similar type of step-down in cents per RTM. Just wondering if that's something that you expect to continue for the foreseeable future. What's driving it? What could make it change up or down from this point going forward?

現在，其中很多與出口 nat 相關，這不在您的組合中，但您確實看到了類似類型的每 RTM 美分下降。只是想知道您是否希望在可預見的未來繼續這種情況。是什麼在驅動它？從現在開始，什麼會導致它向上或向下變化？

Yes. So Walter, we did mention that in my prepared remarks that, that was a bit of a headwind. And you've heard us talk before that we do have a portion of our coal contracts that have some mechanisms that link that pricing to natural gas pricing. And what's happened with natural gas pricing, that certainly is flowing through in terms of some of the rates. We did that similar to intermodal in terms of keeping competitiveness for those players that are dispatching into the grid, keeping them competitive. And we're continuing to ship coal. Still profitable for us, but there is some pricing differentials there.

是的。沃爾特，我們確實在我準備好的發言中提到，這有點不利。您之前已經聽過我們說過，我們的部分煤炭合同確實有一些將定價與天然氣定價聯繫起來的機制。天然氣定價發生了什麼，這肯定會影響到某些費率。我們的做法與多式聯運類似，旨在保持那些派遣到電網的參與者的競爭力，保持他們的競爭力。我們將繼續運輸煤炭。我們仍然有利可圖，但存在一些定價差異。

So it really depends on how you see the rest of the year playing out in terms of how that's going to look. But if you just compare last year's nat gas prices to where we're at this year, that tells you there's going to be some ongoing pressure there.

因此，這實際上取決於您如何看待今年剩餘時間的情況。但如果你將去年的天然氣價格與今年的價格進行比較，就會發現那裡將會存在一些持續的壓力。

Yes. I think the differentiation there is sequential versus year-over-year, and year-over-year is going to continue to see some pressure. Sequential, we've seen as much pressure as we're going to see.

是的。我認為差異是連續的和同比的，而且同比將繼續面臨一些壓力。接下來，我們已經看到了我們將要看到的壓力。

So it's the kind of flat from this point going forward?

那麼從現在開始，這就是一種持平的情況嗎？

It should be. I mean, obviously, watch natural gas prices.

它應該是。我的意思是，顯然，要關注天然氣價格。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen。

First off, Lance, good luck in the future, and congrats to both Jim and Beth, if they're listening in. Some quick things. I wanted to look a little bit about regulation. We've seen the FRA now is looking for a public comment period on train weights and lengths. Wanted to know if you guys think this is sort of a precursor for more regulation from them.

首先，蘭斯，祝你未來好運，並祝賀吉姆和貝絲，如果他們在聽的話。一些簡單的事情。我想了解一些有關監管的內容。我們已經看到，法蘭克福機場現在正在尋求有關列車重量和長度的公眾意見徵詢期。想知道你們是否認為這是他們進行更多監管的前兆。

And two, maybe if you could talk a little bit about anything anticipated on reciprocal switching. And lastly, squeezing in here, Jennifer, when was the last time you guys didn't repurchase shares in the quarter?

第二，也許你可以談談關於相互切換的任何預期內容。最後，詹妮弗，你們最後一次在本季度不回購股票是什麼時候？

Jennifer, do you want to go first, then I'll take the others?

詹妮弗，你想先走，然後我帶其他人嗎？

Yes. So I would go back to second and third quarter of 2020 when the pandemic hit and there was such a drop in volumes. We paused our share repurchases then for at least a couple -- I'm pretty sure for the full second quarter, part of the third quarter, I think, is when we restarted that. So we manage the share repurchase piece with our excess cash. And that's always been the flexible part of our shareholder return, and that's how we're managing it today.

是的。所以我想回顧一下 2020 年第二和第三季度，當時疫情爆發，銷量大幅下降。然後我們暫停了至少幾次股票回購——我很確定整個第二季度，我認為第三季度的一部分，就是我們重新啟動股票回購的時候。因此，我們用多餘的現金來管理股票回購部分。這一直是我們股東回報的靈活部分，這就是我們今天管理它的方式。

Yes. And Jennifer, we've been crystal clear that we turbocharged our excess cash by using the capacity of our balance sheet. And that capacity now has been largely used, and it's all about growing cash from operations and operating income at this point.

是的。詹妮弗，我們已經非常清楚地表明，我們通過利用資產負債表的能力來增加多餘的現金。現在，這種產能已經得到了很大程度的利用，目前這一切都是為了增加來自運營的現金和運營收入。

Exactly, Lance. And obviously, with some of the earnings pressures we're facing this year, that's not giving us that incremental capacity we've seen.

沒錯，蘭斯。顯然，由於我們今年面臨的一些盈利壓力，這並沒有給我們帶來我們所看到的增量產能。

So Jason, talking about what's going on in Congress and at the STB in Congress, the Rail Safety Act, we've been crystal clear about things in there that we think are appropriate. Like there should be some additional regulation and laws regarding the preparedness of emergency responders, the information that's at their disposal. We believe the same is true on tank car standards. There's an opportunity to pull forward tank car standard improvements.

所以傑森，在談論國會和國會 STB 正在發生的事情，即《鐵路安全法案》時，我們已經非常清楚地了解了我們認為適當的事情。就像應該有一些關於應急響應人員的準備情況以及他們可以使用的信息的額外法規和法律。我們相信罐車標準也是如此。這是推進罐車標準改進的機會。

And we also think there's room for regulation to step into wayside detection. We've done a ton of things in wayside detection voluntarily. It is not regulated. And if it were to be regulated appropriately, that makes some sense.

我們還認為監管還有介入路邊檢測的空間。我們在路邊檢測方面自願做了很多事情。它不受監管。如果對其進行適當的監管，這是有道理的。

There's some things in the Rail Safety Act that don't make sense like coupling train size with safety. On our railroad, mainline and siding derailments are down 25% plus, while train size is up 20% over the last, call it, 4 years. There's just no correlation in our experience between safety and train size.

《鐵路安全法》中的一些內容是沒有意義的，例如將列車尺寸與安全性聯繫起來。在我們的鐵路上，幹線和支線脫軌率在過去 4 年裡下降了 25% 以上，而火車規模則增加了 20%。根據我們的經驗，安全性​​和列車尺寸之間沒有相關性。

And likewise, there's no correlation anywhere in the world between train crew size and safety. That should be left to collective bargaining and what technology enables. So as we look at Congress, that's what we're thinking about. As we look at the STB, as we've said before, we help them understand how the railroad industry works, how our reinvestment works. And when it comes to reciprocal switch or forced open access, we help them understand that, that would have a real negative impact on investment. It would not improve service product, and they should be very, very careful as they think about whether or not that should be implemented and how to implement it.

同樣，世界上任何地方的火車乘員規模和安全性之間都不存在相關性。這應該留給集體談判和技術來實現。因此，當我們審視國會時，這就是我們正在考慮的問題。當我們審視 STB 時，正如我們之前所說，我們幫助他們了解鐵路行業如何運作，我們的再投資如何運作。當涉及到互惠轉換或強制開放訪問時，我們幫助他們了解這將對投資產生真正的負面影響。它不會改善服務產品，他們在考慮是否應該實施以及如何實施時應該非常非常小心。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的湯姆·瓦德維茨 (Tom Wadewitz)。

Lance, wanted to wish you well in the next thing you do, retirement, whatever it is. Let's see. I guess, one just clarification. I think, Kenny, you commented earlier on intermodal yields are -- 3Q, are we expecting more sequential pressure on revenue per car in intermodal in 3Q? So that -- just a clarification.

蘭斯，祝愿你在接下來的事情中一切順利，退休，無論是什麼。讓我們來看看。我想，只是澄清一下。我想，肯尼，您之前評論過第三季度的多式聯運收益率，我們是否預計第三季度多式聯運中每輛車的收入會承受更大的連續壓力？所以——只是一個澄清。

And then the broader question really -- when we look at the industry, I think historically, there was opportunity from productivity and price to improve margins. Certainly, UP did that in a massive way over, I don't know, 15 years, right? But it just seems like there's this inflation in the cost base and pricing's good, but not enough. So do you think it's fair to look forward and say, look, margin improvement is really about volume and without volume, you're -- maybe you have a tough time to improve the margin? And I think that seemed to be true maybe for industry, not just for UP, but I don't know if you have thoughts on that. And then maybe the clarification on intermodal.

然後是更廣泛的問題——當我們審視這個行業時，我認為從歷史上看，生產力和價格有機會提高利潤率。當然，我不知道，UP 已經做了 15 年了，對嗎？但成本基礎和定價似乎都存在通脹，雖然不錯，但還不夠。那麼，您認為展望未來並說，看，利潤率的提高實際上與數量有關，如果沒有數量，您可能會很難提高利潤率？我認為這對於工業界來說似乎是正確的，而不僅僅是 UP，但我不知道您是否對此有想法。然後也許是對聯運的澄清。

Yes, Tom, let me start with your essential question about the 3 legs of the stool. We've forever talked about, we drive margin improvement through productivity, price and the benefit of volume. And to your point, we've leaned heavily on productivity and price historically. And we said we're in a transition where we're going to have to lean more heavily on volume.

是的，湯姆，讓我從你關於凳子的 3 條腿的基本問題開始。我們一直在談論，我們通過生產力、價格和銷量優勢來提高利潤率。就您而言，我們歷史上一直嚴重依賴生產力和價格。我們說過，我們正處於一個轉型期，我們將不得不更加依賴數量。

But that's not going to be the only leg of that three-legged stool, Tom, when you -- it's still true. While inflation got on us quick, the way our contracts and our business relationships are set, it takes us a while to recoup that inflation through price. Kenny's team has been crystal clear that they own the requirement to do that, and they're following through. But it's going to take a little while.

但這不會是三足凳子中的唯一一條腿，湯姆，當你——這仍然是事實。雖然通貨膨脹很快就會影響到我們，但我們的合同和業務關係的製定方式卻需要一段時間才能通過價格來彌補通貨膨脹。肯尼的團隊非​​常清楚，他們有這樣做的要求，並且他們正在遵循。但這需要一點時間。

And on productivity, like we just demonstrated this quarter, we created a new agreement, makes all the sense in the world. It came with a 70 -- roughly $70 million price tag immediately. Implementing it is going to get the payback and will be paid back in about 2 years. So Tom, the opportunity for productivity, price and volume to still drive margin improvement exists. We're in kind of a unique environment right now regarding timing. And we are, for sure, going to have to rely on volume more heavily going forward.

在生產力方面，就像我們本季度剛剛展示的那樣，我們制定了一項新協議，在世界範圍內都有意義。它立即標出了 70——大約 7000 萬美元的標價。實施它將會得到回報，並且將在大約 2 年內得到回報。湯姆，生產力、價格和銷量仍然有機會推動利潤率的提高。關於時間安排，我們現在處於一個獨特的環境中。毫無疑問，我們未來將不得不更加依賴數量。

Yes. Just a short answer. No, we're not expecting increased pricing pressures on that intermodal side of the house.

是的。只是一個簡短的回答。不，我們預計聯運方面的定價壓力不會增加。

Okay. So you think stable revenue per car 3Q versus 2Q?

好的。那麼您認為第三季度每輛車的收入與第二季度相比是否穩定？

That's how you should be thinking about it.

這就是你應該如何思考的。

Our next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自本·諾蘭和施蒂菲爾。

So Kenny, you mentioned the Falcon Express a little bit ago. I'm curious if you have any early takes. Any -- how are things thus far developing the way that they thought you would or you thought they would? Or any early indications that -- of how you're expecting it to play out over the back half of the year?

肯尼，你剛才提到了獵鷹快車。我很好奇你是否有任何早期的想法。任何——到目前為止，事情進展如何，如他們所認為的或你所認為的那樣？或者有任何早期跡象表明——您預計下半年情況如何？

I think you're asking, have we seen any success stories? And yes, we've had some early wins. Of course, the focus is over the road. I mean, that's the size of the prize. Rail is a very small part of that traffic that's moving out of Mexico or into Mexico. As I also said, as we continue to improve the speed and consistency there, we expect to make more inroads.

我想你是在問，我們見過任何成功的案例嗎？是的，我們已經取得了一些早期的勝利。當然，焦點是在路上。我的意思是，這就是獎金的大小。鐵路只佔墨西哥進出交通的一小部分。正如我還說過的，隨著我們繼續提高速度和一致性，我們期望取得更多進展。

Okay. And so far, as expected?

好的。到目前為止，正如預期的那樣嗎？

Yes. I mean, we're getting more reception from customers that are open to opening their books and giving us a shot, for sure.

是的。我的意思是，我們得到了更多願意打開書本並給我們機會的客戶的歡迎，這是肯定的。

Our next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦的對話。

Lance, congratulations and good luck. So Eric, with the 400 to 600 heads that we need to add in for the part time off -- or paid time-off agreements, how many of those people are going to be on property by the end of this year? And then, how should we think about reconciling that with the -- a flat head count number from 2Q? Are we making reductions in operations? Or is it coming out of other areas?

蘭斯，恭喜你，祝你好運。那麼，埃里克，我們需要增加 400 到 600 名員工來享受兼職休假或帶薪休假協議，到今年年底，其中有多少人將在酒店工作？然後，我們應該如何考慮將其與第二季度的平頭計數數字相協調？我們是否正在減少運營？還是從其他地區傳出來的？

Yes. So I'll actually jump in on that one. So it is -- when you think about the 400 to 600 incremental that we talked about from the labor agreements, that's incremental from what we would have otherwise been staffing at a given volume level. So that is completely consistent with and taken into account with when we also say, as we look at head count levels now to the end of the year, we think not a whole lot of change. So...

是的。所以我實際上會參與其中。所以，當你想到我們在勞工協議中談到的 400 到 600 人的增量時，這就是我們在給定數量水平上本來要配備的人員的增量。因此，這與我們所說的完全一致，並考慮到了這一點，當我們從現在到年底的人數水平來看，我們認為不會有太大變化。所以...

So Jennifer, it's for all agreements.

所以詹妮弗，這是為了所有協議。

And it's for all agreements, which, again, we're going to be implementing over not just the back half of this year but well into 2024.

這適用於所有協議，我們將再次強調，這些協議不僅會在今年下半年實施，而且會持續到 2024 年。

I think we also pointed out in our commentary that, that number is going to be highly impacted by the behavior that comes from these agreements. And we're not ready today to say exactly what that will look like. We'll continue to look to it, though.

我想我們還在評論中指出，這個數字將受到這些協議所產生的行為的嚴重影響。今天我們還沒有準備好確切地說那會是什麼樣子。不過，我們將繼續關注它。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

But he had the back half of his question there, which was about offsets and...

但他的問題的後半部分是關於抵消和……

Yes. The offsets really haven't changed from the ones that I answered a few moments ago. They really focused on the availability on the 11 and 4, and they focus on the brakeperson about actually removing brakepersons off of positions that are no longer needed.

是的。偏移量與我剛才回答的偏移量確實沒有改變。他們真正關注的是 11 號和 4 號車的可用性，並且關注的是製動員，即實際上將製動員從不再需要的位置上移除。

So if you were to say like how much of the 400 to 600 is in this year versus coming into next year, is it a quarter, is it half? Is there a way to directionally sort of indicate how much is going to be in this year?

所以，如果你說今年的 400 到 600 人中有多少是明年的，是四分之一還是一半？有沒有一種方法可以定向表明今年的金額？

Again, it does depend on what the behavior is. But there will be some amount, maybe 1/4 to 1/2. That's probably not a bad estimate. Sick leave, obviously, that part we have fully done now. So any heads that we think that we need to add for that, that's done.

同樣，這確實取決於行為是什麼。但會有一些量，可能是1/4到1/2。這可能是一個不錯的估計。顯然，病假這部分我們現在已經完全完成了。因此，我們認為需要添加的任何頭都已完成。

Obviously, we get offsets this year too with the brakeperson agreement. So there's a bit of a netting effect. And then it really is pace and timing of the BLET work-rest, getting Smart-TD. And of course, we will -- because it's really the training piece of it, right? So we're going to need to -- for BLET, we need to put more engineers in the training pipeline. And with that, you need to continue to hire some conductors. So there will be some portion, 50% might be at the max side, I would say, but probably somewhere in there is a safe bet.

顯然，今年我們也通過制動員協議獲得了補償。所以有一點網絡效應。然後就是 BLET 工作休息的節奏和時間安排，獲得 Smart-TD。當然，我們會——因為這確實是訓練的一部分，對吧？因此，對於 BLET，我們需要將更多的工程師納入培訓渠道。有了這個，你需要繼續僱傭一些指揮。所以會有一部分，我想說，50% 可能在最大一側，但可能在某個地方有一個安全的賭注。

And Jennifer, I think you had said this, but your total guidance sequentially for the back half labor being flattish includes all that.

詹妮弗，我想你已經說過了這一點，但你對後半部分勞動的連續指導是平坦的，包括所有這些。

Yes, it absolutely includes all of that.

是的，它絕對包括所有這些。

Our final question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

More of an operational question. Curious, trip plan compliance, where do you think that needs to go both at the manifest and intermodal level, but specifically on intermodal. Is the way to think about intermodal conversion accelerating tied to a certain level of trip plan compliance for that? And if so, where do customers really take note and you start to see an acceleration of market share gains?

更多的是一個操作問題。好奇，旅行計劃合規性，您認為在艙單和多式聯運層面，特別是在多式聯運層面，需要去哪裡。加速多式聯運轉換的思考方式是否與一定程度的旅行計劃合規性相關？如果是這樣，客戶真正注意到什麼並且您開始看到市場份額加速增長？

Yes. Thank you for the question, Jordan. So when you -- we've been very consistent that when you think about the intermodal TPC, you're talking about a number that starts with an 8. And when you're thinking about manifest in autos, it starts with the 7. Now that's highly informed and continues to be evolving. We went through a very large engagement with our customer base through Kenny's team towards the back end of last year that is informed this year and how we think about that, more specifically to segments within those customers.

是的。謝謝你的提問，喬丹。因此，當您考慮聯運 TPC 時，我們一直非常一致地認為，您談論的是一個以 8 開頭的數字。而當您考慮汽車中的清單時，它是以 7 開頭的。現在它的信息非常豐富，並且還在不斷發展。去年年底，我們通過肯尼的團隊與我們的客戶群進行了非常廣泛的接觸，今年我們了解了這一點，以及我們如何看待這一點，更具體地說是針對這些客戶中的細分市場。

Now that work continues because (inaudible) and as we've reinforced before, we know that our customers are sensitive, in fact, very sensitive to our service. That's why we're encouraged by the progress we made. And in no way are we saying that our service is where it needs to be now. It was a great step in the right direction. We've got more work to do.

現在這項工作仍在繼續，因為（聽不清）正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們知道我們的客戶對我們的服務很敏感，事實上，非常敏感。這就是為什麼我們對所取得的進展感到鼓舞。我們絕不是說我們的服務已經達到了現在需要的程度。這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步。我們還有更多工作要做。

Thank you, Jordan, and thank you all for your questions, and thank you for joining us on the call today. We appreciate your interest and your ownership in Union Pacific, and I hope you have a great rest of your day. Take care.

謝謝喬丹，謝謝大家提出的問題，也感謝您今天加入我們的電話會議。我們感謝您對聯合太平洋公司的興趣和所有權，希望您度過愉快的一天。小心。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.

女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。謝謝。