聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to the Union Pacific Fourth Quarter 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

你好。歡迎來到 Union Pacific 2022 年第四季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在 Union Pacific 的網站上找到。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President and CEO for Union Pacific. Mr. Fritz, you may now begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，聯合太平洋公司董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Lance Fritz 先生。 Fritz 先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good evening, and welcome to Union Pacific's fourth quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝羅布，晚上好，歡迎來到聯合太平洋第四季度財報電話會議。今天和我一起在奧馬哈的有營銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker；運營執行副總裁 Eric Gehringer；和我們的首席財務官 Jennifer Hamann。

The fourth quarter and 2022 overall were challenging for Union Pacific and our employees. The lengthy labor negotiations tested our workforce while customers felt the impact of our service issues. Two things are critically important as we turn the page to 2023. First is the trend line of improving freight car velocity since late summer, although acknowledging there were bumps along the way. And second is how we move forward, establishing consistent service for our customers day in and day out and demonstrating to all stakeholders our commitment to excellence.

第四季度和 2022 年整體對聯合太平洋公司和我們的員工來說充滿挑戰。漫長的勞資談判考驗了我們的員工隊伍，而客戶則感受到了我們服務問題的影響。當我們翻到 2023 年時，有兩件事至關重要。首先是自夏末以來貨車速度提高的趨勢線，儘管我們承認一路上有顛簸。其次是我們如何前進，日復一日地為我們的客戶提供一致的服務，並向所有利益相關者展示我們對卓越的承諾。

Now turning to our fourth quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2022 fourth quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.67 per share. This compares to fourth quarter 2021 results of $1.7 billion or $2.66 per share.

現在轉向我們的第四季度業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋報告 2022 年第四季度淨收入為 16 億美元或每股 2.67 美元。相比之下，2021 年第四季度的業績為 17 億美元或每股 2.66 美元。

Our fourth quarter operating ratio of 61% deteriorated 360 basis points versus 2021, driven by continued service challenges and the impact from winter weather. For the full year, reported operating ratio finished at 60.1%, deteriorating 290 basis points, driven by operational inefficiency, inflation and higher fuel prices.

由於持續的服務挑戰和冬季天氣的影響，我們第四季度的運營率為 61%，與 2021 年相比下降了 360 個基點。全年，由於運營效率低下、通貨膨脹和燃油價格上漲，報告的運營率為 60.1%，下降了 290 個基點。

The entire Union Pacific team recognizes that 2022 did not beat expectations. Crew constraints in critical locations impacted by shifting demand had a real impact on our performance. As you'll hear from Eric, we are building resiliency into the network through hiring efforts, shifting critical resources and better operations to address that shortfall. And you're seeing those benefits manifested in how the network has responded since Thanksgiving through the ups and downs of extreme winter weather.

整個 Union Pacific 團隊都認識到 2022 年沒有超出預期。受需求變化影響的關鍵地點的人員限制對我們的績效產生了真正的影響。正如您從埃里克那裡聽到的那樣，我們正在通過招聘工作、轉移關鍵資源和更好的運營來增強網絡的彈性，以解決這一不足。您會看到這些好處體現在自感恩節以來網絡如何應對極端冬季天氣的起伏。

These challenges aside, we achieved volume growth for the year. We demonstrated our commitment to meet customer needs with business development wins that are critical to long-term financial success. The recent onboarding of Schneider is a great proof statement of delivering on that commitment.

撇開這些挑戰不談，我們今年實現了銷量增長。我們通過對長期財務成功至關重要的業務發展勝利證明了我們滿足客戶需求的承諾。施耐德最近的入職很好地證明了這一承諾。

We also made significant progress towards our climate goals. In 2022, we increased our biofuel blend to over 4.5% on pace to achieve our 2030 target of 20%. This is a key initiative in achieving our 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. In addition, for a fourth consecutive year, we improved our fuel consumption rate on a year-over-year basis, lowering at 1% to an all-time record. This helped our customers avoid 23.4 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions by using rail versus truck. Union Pacific will continue to be a rail leader in sustainability.

我們在實現氣候目標方面也取得了重大進展。 2022 年，我們將生物燃料混合比例提高到 4.5% 以上，以實現我們 2030 年 20% 的目標。這是實現我們 2030 年溫室氣體減排目標的一項重要舉措。此外，我們連續第四年同比改善油耗，降低 1%，創下歷史新高。這幫助我們的客戶通過使用鐵路而不是卡車避免了 2340 萬公噸的溫室氣體排放。聯合太平洋將繼續成為可持續發展方面的鐵路領導者。

Now let's start with Kenny for an update on the business environment.

現在讓我們從肯尼開始了解商業環境的最新情況。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. Fourth quarter volume was up 1% compared to 2021. Gains in our premium business group were partially offset by a decline in our bulk area. However, freight revenue was up 9%, driven by higher fuel surcharges and strong price.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早上好。與 2021 年相比，第四季度的銷量增長了 1%。我們的高端業務組的收益被我們的散裝區域的下降部分抵消了。然而，在燃油附加費上漲和價格堅挺的推動下，貨運收入增長了 9%。

Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups. Starting with bulk. Revenue for the quarter was up 7% compared to 2021, driven by a 10% increase in average revenue per car, reflecting higher fuel surcharges and solid core pricing gains. Volume was down 3% year-over-year. Grain and grain products volume was down 2%, driven by a decrease in export grain shipments. Despite strong market demand, we faced service and weather challenges that slow shuttle cycle times as well as having a tough 2021 comparable.

讓我們仔細看看這些業務組中的每一個。從散裝開始。本季度的收入比 2021 年增長了 7%，這得益於每輛汽車的平均收入增長了 10%，這反映了更高的燃油附加費和穩固的核心定價收益。銷量同比下降 3%。由於出口穀物出貨量減少，穀物和穀物產品銷量下降了 2%。儘管市場需求強勁，但我們仍面臨著服務和天氣方面的挑戰，這些挑戰減慢了航天飛機的循環時間，而且 2021 年的可比性也很艱難。

Fertilizer carloads were down 15% year-over-year driven by reduced shipments of potash due to market softness along with another tough comp the 2021 fourth quarter. Food and refrigerated volume was down 8% due to reduced shipments of finished beverage product and their associated raw materials.

由於市場疲軟以及 2021 年第四季度的另一個艱難競爭，鉀肥出貨量減少，化肥載貨量同比下降 15%。由於成品飲料產品及其相關原材料的出貨量減少，食品和冷藏量下降了 8%。

And lastly, coal and renewable carloads remained flat in the quarter as our ability to capture demand from favorable natural gas prices was impacted by weather and service challenges, particularly in late December.

最後，由於我們從有利的天然氣價格中獲取需求的能力受到天氣和服務挑戰的影響，尤其是在 12 月下旬，煤炭和可再生能源的載貨量在本季度保持平穩。

Moving on to Industrial. Industrial revenue was up 5% for the quarter, driven by a 5% improvement in average revenue per car due to higher fuel surcharges and core pricing gains, somewhat offset by a negative business mix. Volume for the quarter was flat. Industrial chemicals and plastic shipments were down 4% year-over-year driven by lower industrial chemicals demand.

繼續工業。本季度工業收入增長 5%，這是由於更高的燃油附加費和核心定價收益導致每輛汽車的平均收入增長 5%，這在一定程度上被不利的業務組合所抵消。本季度的交易量持平。由於工業化學品需求下降，工業化學品和塑料出貨量同比下降 4%。

Metals & Minerals volumes continued to deliver robust year-over-year growth, driven in part by our business development efforts. Volume was up 8% compared to 2021, primarily driven by an increase in frac sand shipments and growth in construction materials. Forest products volume declined 17% year-over-year, driven by weak corrugated box demand and softness in the housing market.

金屬和礦產銷量繼續實現強勁的同比增長，部分原因是我們的業務發展努力。與 2021 年相比，銷量增長了 8%，這主要是由於壓裂砂出貨量的增加和建築材料的增長。受瓦楞紙箱需求疲軟和房地產市場疲軟的推動，林產品銷量同比下降 17%。

Energy and specialized shipments were up 2% compared to 2021, driven by an increased waste and soda ash demand, partially offset by pure petroleum shipments from regulatory changes in Mexico markets.

與 2021 年相比，能源和特種產品的出貨量增長了 2%，這是受廢物和蘇打灰需求增加的推動，部分被墨西哥市場監管變化帶來的純石油出貨量所抵消。

Turning to premium. Revenue for the quarter was up 15% on a 3% increase in volume. Average revenue per car increased 12% due primarily to higher fuel surcharge revenue and core pricing gains. Automotive volume was up 9%, driven by strengthening production and inventory replenishment for finished vehicles.

轉向溢價。本季度收入增長 15%，銷量增長 3%。每輛車的平均收入增長了 12%，這主要是由於更高的燃油附加費收入和核心定價收益。汽車銷量增長了 9%，這主要得益於整車生產和庫存補充的加強。

Intermodal volume was up 2%, driven by increased international shipments, mainly due to an easier comp in 2021. Although domestic volumes decreased due to soft market demand, declining truck rates and increased over the roll capacity, the aforementioned negative impact was partially offset with the Schneider conversion in December.

多式聯運量增長了 2%，這主要是由於 2021 年比較容易的國際貨運量增加。儘管由於市場需求疲軟、卡車費率下降和過載能力增加，國內量減少，但上述負面影響被部分抵消12 月的施耐德轉換。

Now as we look ahead to 2023, you can see the macro indicators that we are watching along with inflation and interest rates. And you'll notice that we have some challenges with industrial production, imports and housing starts. However, we remain optimistic that we will be industrial production with our strong focus on business development.

現在，當我們展望 2023 年時，您可以看到我們正在關注的宏觀指標以及通貨膨脹和利率。你會注意到我們在工業生產、進口和房屋開工方面面臨一些挑戰。但是，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將重點關注業務發展，從而實現工業生產。

So now moving on to Slide 8. Here is our market outlook for 2023 as we sit here today. Starting with our bulk commodities, we expect a challenging year were grain based on drought conditions, which will affect crop availability in [UP-serve] origin. However, we expect to see growth in coal, even though natural gas prices have come off their highs, low inventories will continue -- will support continued demand. We are keeping a close eye on natural gas prices, given the price impact of our index-based contracts.

現在轉到幻燈片 8。這是我們今天坐在這裡的 2023 年市場展望。從我們的大宗商品開始，我們預計充滿挑戰的一年是基於乾旱條件的糧食，這將影響 [UP-serve] 產地的作物供應。然而，我們預計煤炭將出現增長，儘管天然氣價格已從高位回落，但低庫存將繼續存在——這將支持持續的需求。鑑於我們基於指數的合約的價格影響，我們正在密切關注天然氣價格。

In addition, we expect biofuel shipments for renewable diesel to continue to grow due to solid market demand, new production facilities coming online and business development wins.

此外，由於市場需求強勁、新生產設施上線以及業務發展成功，我們預計可再生柴油的生物燃料出貨量將繼續增長。

Moving on to Industrial. The forecast for industrial production is to shrink slightly in 2023 and the demand is softening in forest products. However, we expect to see continued strength in metal with new business wins.

繼續工業。預計 2023 年工業生產將略有萎縮，林產品需求疲軟。然而，我們預計隨著新業務的獲勝，金屬行業將繼續走強。

And lastly, for premium, we expect the entire intermodal market to be challenged, both international and domestic by high inventory levels, lower truck rates and temper consumer spending. We expect to outperform that market, however, through our new business with Schneider as well as opportunities to grow with other private asset owners and our strong IMC partners. We expect automotive growth to be another bright spot in this segment driven by production strength and inventory replenishment.

最後，對於保費，我們預計整個國際和國內多式聯運市場將受到高庫存水平、較低的卡車費率和消費者支出的挑戰。然而，我們希望通過與施耐德的新業務以及與其他私人資產所有者和我們強大的 IMC 合作夥伴共同成長的機會，超越該市場。在生產實力和庫存補充的推動下，我們預計汽車增長將成為該領域的另一個亮點。

As I wrap up my comments, I want to take a moment to express my gratitude to our customers and the operating team. Over the past month, extreme weather events impacted large portions of our network, and I want to thank our employees who safely worked around-the-clock in harsh conditions to keep the railroad running for our customers.

在結束我的評論時，我想花點時間向我們的客戶和運營團隊表示感謝。在過去的一個月裡，極端天氣事件影響了我們大部分的網絡，我要感謝我們的員工，他們在惡劣的條件下安全地全天候工作，為我們的客戶保持鐵路運行。

And with that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

有了這個，我會把它交給埃里克來審查我們的運營績效。

Thanks, Kenny, and good morning. Starting on Slide 10. Safety is at the foundation of everything we do. We have enhanced our training programs and are working to solidify our safety culture through ownership and personal accountability. These efforts drove an 18% improvement in our 2022 full year personal injury safety results, which is at the lowest level in 5 years. We look to leverage these gains to improve derailment performance in 2023. While good progress overall, our goal remains returning each employee home safely at the end of the day.

謝謝，肯尼，早上好。從幻燈片 10 開始。安全是我們所做一切的基礎。我們加強了培訓計劃，並努力通過主人翁意識和個人責任來鞏固我們的安全文化。這些努力使我們 2022 年全年的人身傷害安全結果提高了 18%，達到 5 年來的最低水平。我們希望利用這些成果來改善 2023 年的脫軌績效。雖然總體進展良好，但我們的目標仍然是在一天結束時讓每位員工安全回家。

Moving now to Slide 11 for a look at our current operational performance. Our attention throughout 2022 was focused on onboarding the necessary crew resources to operate a fluid network and meet customer demand. I would like to thank our partners and workforce resources and the operating team for their great work in recruiting and onboarding new team members. We currently have around 600 employees in training as our pipeline is significantly stronger than it was a year ago.

現在轉到幻燈片 11 查看我們當前的運營績效。整個 2022 年，我們的注意力都集中在招募必要的船員資源上，以運營流暢的網絡並滿足客戶需求。我要感謝我們的合作夥伴和勞動力資源以及運營團隊在招募和入職新團隊成員方面所做的出色工作。我們目前有大約 600 名員工在接受培訓，因為我們的管道比一年前要強大得多。

That being said, our hiring efforts will continue in 2023 as we backfill for attrition and target locations across the northern region, where crude challenges persist. In the near term, we will continue to utilize borrow outs to supplement crew shortfalls.

話雖這麼說，我們的招聘工作將在 2023 年繼續進行，因為我們將回填北部地區的自然減員和目標地點，那裡的原油挑戰依然存在。在短期內，我們將繼續利用借貸來補充人員短缺。

Another key element in increasing fluidity is the reduction of excess inventory, which builds the foundation for a strong and resilient service product. I am proud of the progress we made, which would have not been accomplished without the dedication and tireless work of the commercial and operating teams. Mother Nature threatened to derail some of that progress in the last weeks of December with blizzard conditions and extreme cool temperatures across much of the network. However, our team responded, and we quickly rebounded demonstrating greater resiliency that we can build on in 2023. With current freight car velocity around 210 miles per day and trip plan compliance measures demonstrating sequential improvement, we look to maintain that progress as volumes strengthen into 2023.

增加流動性的另一個關鍵因素是減少過剩庫存，這為強大而有彈性的服務產品奠定了基礎。我為我們取得的進展感到自豪，如果沒有商業和運營團隊的奉獻和不懈努力，這些進展是無法實現的。在 12 月的最後幾週，由於暴風雪天氣和網絡大部分地區的極端低溫，大自然威脅要破壞部分進展。然而，我們的團隊做出了回應，我們迅速反彈，展示了我們可以在 2023 年建立的更大的彈性。目前的貨車速度約為每天 210 英里，並且行程計劃合規措施顯示出連續的改進，我們希望隨著貨運量的增加保持這一進展2023.

Now let's review our key performance metrics for the quarter, starting on Slide 12, which continue to trail 2021's results. Both freight car velocity and manifest and auto trip plan compliance were flat sequentially from last quarter's results. Importantly, however, intermodal trip plan compliance did improve 11 points sequentially as supply chain congestion alleviated, resulting in less stack containers at the inland ramps. Near the end of the quarter, we successfully onboarded the Schneider Intermodal business and remain actively engaged to manage that transition.

現在讓我們回顧一下本季度的關鍵績效指標，從幻燈片 12 開始，它繼續追踪 2021 年的結果。貨車速度和清單以及汽車行程計劃合規性與上一季度的結果相比環比持平。然而，重要的是，隨著供應鏈擁堵的緩解，多式聯運行程計劃合規性確實連續提高了 11 個點，從而減少了內陸坡道堆放的集裝箱。在本季度末，我們成功加入了 Schneider Intermodal 業務，並繼續積極參與管理該過渡。

Turning to Slide 13 to review our network efficiency metrics, which also like 2021's fourth quarter measures. Locomotive productivity, workforce productivity and train length all declined sequentially driven by lower volumes in the back half of the quarter and winter weather challenges. Entering 2023, the team remains focused on strengthening the network while recovering lost productivity.

轉到幻燈片 13 來查看我們的網絡效率指標，這些指標也與 2021 年第四季度的指標相似。機車生產率、勞動力生產率和列車長度均因本季度後半段運量下降和冬季天氣挑戰而依次下降。進入 2023 年，該團隊仍然專注於加強網絡，同時恢復損失的生產力。

Moving to Slide 14. We continue to exercise discipline in our capital spending while delivering value to our shareholders. We are targeting 2023 capital spending of $3.6 billion, pending final approval by our Board of Directors. While the projected increase from last year, we expect capital spending to remain in line with our long-term guidance of less than 15% of revenue. As always, our first capital dollars will support our existing infrastructure. This spending will harden our infrastructure, renew older assets and support safe operations.

轉到幻燈片 14。我們在為股東創造價值的同時，繼續嚴格控制資本支出。我們的目標是到 2023 年資本支出達到 36 億美元，這有待董事會的最終批准。雖然預計比去年有所增加，但我們預計資本支出將與我們低於收入 15% 的長期指導一致。一如既往，我們的第一筆資金將支持我們現有的基礎設施。這筆支出將加強我們的基礎設施，更新舊資產並支持安全運營。

For 2023, in addition to a higher inflationary environment, the elevated capital spending will be driven by increased locomotive spending of $175 million. With 430 modernized locomotives currently in the fleet, we will bring the total modernized to over 1,000 by the end of 2025. These modernizations not only help build resiliency into the network through enhanced reliability and productivity, but also further the progress towards our carbon emission reduction goals.

到 2023 年，除了更高的通貨膨脹環境外，增加的資本支出將由機車支出增加 1.75 億美元推動。目前機車擁有 430 輛現代化機車，到 2025 年底，我們的現代化機車總數將超過 1,000 輛。這些現代化不僅有助於通過提高可靠性和生產力來增強網絡的彈性，而且還可以進一步推動我們在減少碳排放方面取得進展目標。

We continue to invest capital for growth. On the intermodal front, we are investing in additional capacity at the Inland Empire terminal, and we will be expanding our footprint in Kansas City. And on the capacity side, we will continue to invest in projects like sidings that drive productivity, allow us to handle more car loadings and improve our network efficiency.

我們繼續為增長投資資本。在多式聯運方面，我們正在投資 Inland Empire 航站樓的額外容量，我們將擴大我們在堪薩斯城的足跡。在運力方面，我們將繼續投資側線等提高生產力的項目，使我們能夠處理更多的汽車裝載量並提高我們的網絡效率。

Wrapping up on Slide 15. We are dedicated to improving our service product in 2023. Slide 15 provides a road map of the key activities to achieve that goal. We demonstrated meaningful improvement in our safety results in 2022 through an enhancement to our safety management systems and continue towards the goal of world-class safety. Additionally, we recognize the importance of quality of life concerns that our agreement professionals voiced. We continue to work closely with union leadership to find win-win solutions that enable a strong service product and provide our employees with more consistent work schedules.

總結幻燈片 15。我們致力於在 2023 年改進我們的服務產品。幻燈片 15 提供了實現該目標的關鍵活動的路線圖。通過加強我們的安全管理系統，我們在 2022 年的安全成果上取得了有意義的改進，並繼續朝著世界級安全的目標邁進。此外，我們認識到我們的協議專業人員所表達的生活質量問題的重要性。我們繼續與工會領導密切合作，尋找雙贏的解決方案，以提供強大的服務產品並為我們的員工提供更一致的工作時間表。

As we sustain improved operational performance, use our resources more efficiently and reduce variability, we will generate productivity. At the same time, technology enhancements will drive further productivity and support a consistent and reliable service product for our customers.

當我們維持改進的運營績效、更有效地使用我們的資源並減少可變性時，我們將產生生產力。同時，技術改進將進一步提高生產力，並為我們的客戶提供一致可靠的服務產品。

With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

有了這個，我將把它交給詹妮弗來審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. Let's start with fourth quarter income statement on Slide 17. Operating revenue in the quarter totaled $6.2 billion, up 8% versus 2021 on a 1% increase in volume. These gains were more than offset by a 14% increase in operating expense, which totaled $3.8 billion. Excluding the impact of higher fuel prices, expenses were up 7% in the quarter.

謝謝，埃里克，早上好。讓我們從幻燈片 17 上的第四季度損益表開始。本季度營業收入總計 62 億美元，比 2021 年增長 8%，銷量增長 1%。這些收益被總計 38 億美元的運營費用增長 14% 所抵消。剔除燃油價格上漲的影響，本季度支出增長了 7%。

Operating income of $2.4 billion declined 1% versus 2021. Other income remained strong, up 11% to $92 million, driven by higher real estate income and pension benefit which offset 2021's $36 million gain on the sale of a technology investment. Interest expense increased 13% as average debt levels increased more than $3 billion year-over-year. Net income of $1.6 billion declined 4%. But when combined with share repurchases, resulted in essentially flat earnings per share at $2.67.

24 億美元的營業收入與 2021 年相比下降了 1%。其他收入依然強勁，增長 11% 至 9200 萬美元，這是由於房地產收入和養老金福利增加抵消了 2021 年出售技術投資的 3600 萬美元收益。由於平均債務水平同比增長超過 30 億美元，利息支出增長了 13%。淨收入 16 億美元，下降 4%。但與股票回購相結合，每股收益基本持平，為 2.67 美元。

Fourth quarter operating ratio of 61% increased 360 basis points, driven by higher inflation and operating costs. Falling fuel prices during the quarter had a favorable 20 basis point impact.

受通貨膨脹和運營成本上升的推動，第四季度運營率為 61%，增長了 360 個基點。本季度燃油價格下跌產生了 20 個基點的有利影響。

Looking more closely at fourth quarter revenue, Slide 18 provides a breakdown of our freight revenue, which totaled $5.8 billion in the fourth quarter, up 9% compared to 2021. Volume contributed 75 basis points. As fuel prices stayed high year-over-year, fourth quarter fuel surcharge revenue also remained elevated, totaling $975 million and increased freight revenue 850 basis points. Strong core pricing gains that exceeded inflation dollars were more than offset by a negative business mix, resulting in a 25 basis point decline in freight revenue. Fewer forest product shipments combined with higher international intermodal and rock shipments drove the negative mix.

更仔細地觀察第四季度收入，幻燈片 18 提供了我們貨運收入的明細，第四季度總計 58 億美元，比 2021 年增長 9%。貨運量貢獻了 75 個基點。由於燃油價格同比居高不下，第四季度燃油附加費收入也保持高位，總計 9.75 億美元，貨運收入增加 850 個基點。超過通脹美元的強勁核心定價收益被負面的業務組合所抵消，導致貨運收入下降 25 個基點。林產品出貨量減少加上國際聯運和岩石出貨量增加推動了負面組合。

Turning to Slide 19 for a summary of our fourth quarter operating expenses. The largest driver of the overall expense increase was again fuel, up 43% as fuel prices rose 46%. Combating these higher prices, we continue to drive productivity, improving our fuel consumption rate 2 points to produce a fourth quarter record. Our compensation and benefits expense was up 10% versus 2021. Total fourth quarter workforce levels increased 4%, reflecting our hiring efforts throughout 2022. Cost per employee grew 6%, primarily driven by wage inflation.

轉到幻燈片 19，了解我們第四季度的運營費用摘要。整體費用增長的最大推動力再次是燃料，隨著燃料價格上漲 46%，燃料價格上漲 43%。為了應對這些更高的價格，我們繼續提高生產力，將我們的燃料消耗率提高了 2 個百分點，創造了第四季度的記錄。與 2021 年相比，我們的薪酬和福利支出增加了 10%。第四季度勞動力總數增加了 4%，反映了我們在整個 2022 年的招聘工作。每位員工的成本增長了 6%，主要受工資上漲的推動。

In addition, cost pressures from network inefficiencies in the form of higher overtime and borrow out costs continued in the quarter. Purchased services and material expense remained elevated, up 18%, driven by cost to maintain a larger active locomotive fleet, volume-related purchase transportation expense at our loop subsidiary and inflation.

此外，網絡效率低下導致的成本壓力在本季度繼續存在，表現為更高的加班費和借貸成本。採購服務和材料費用仍處於高位，增長 18%，原因是維持更大的現役機車車隊的成本、我們環路子公司與數量相關的採購運輸費用以及通貨膨脹。

Equipment and other rents increased 3%, driven by the impact of slower cycle times on car hire expenses. Other expense was flat in the quarter as higher travel and casualty expenses were offset by a partial insurance recovery related to 2021's bridge fire as well as lower state and local taxes.

設備和其他租金增長 3%，這是由於週期時間較慢對租車費用的影響。本季度其他費用持平，因為較高的差旅和傷亡費用被與 2021 年橋樑火災相關的部分保險回收以及較低的州和地方稅收所抵消。

Looking to 2023, we have opportunities across the board to improve efficiency and that's job 1 as we recover our service product. Although we still expect to be more than volume variable with our workforce, we will continue to aggressively hire crews in critical locations and to backfill attrition. For 2023, we expect our all-in inflation to be around 4%, while cost per employee is expected to increase in the mid-single digits as elevated wage inflation is partially offset by productivity.

展望 2023 年，我們有機會全面提高效率，這是我們恢復服務產品時的首要任務。儘管我們仍然希望我們的員工隊伍的數量可變，但我們將繼續在關鍵地點積極招聘員工並填補人員流失。到 2023 年，我們預計我們的總通貨膨脹率將在 4% 左右，而由於工資上漲部分被生產力所抵消，每位員工的成本預計將以中個位數增長。

Depreciation expense should be up around 3% versus 2022. And below the line, similar to last year, we expect other income to remain elevated versus historic levels driven by higher real estate and interest income. Finally, we expect our 2023 annual effective tax rate to be around 24%.

與 2022 年相比，折舊費用應增加 3% 左右。在該線以下，與去年類似，我們預計其他收入將保持高於歷史水平，原因是房地產和利息收入增加。最後，我們預計 2023 年的年度有效稅率將在 24% 左右。

Moving to Slide 20 with a quick recap of full year 2022 results, which are shown on the slide as reported and include the impact of the third quarter PEB adjustment. Revenue was up 14%, an annual record, driven by increased fuel surcharges, strong pricing gains and 2% volume growth. Record operating income increased 6% to $9.9 billion, which includes a net increase of just under $700 million from fuel surcharges. Our full year reported operating ratio of 60.1% deteriorated 290 basis points versus 2021. Network inefficiencies and inflation were the primary components of the degradation with the PEB adjustment and higher fuel prices impacting the full year operating ratio by 30 basis points and 20 basis points, respectively.

轉到幻燈片 20，快速回顧 2022 年全年的結果，這些結果顯示在報告的幻燈片上，包括第三季度 PEB 調整的影響。收入增長 14%，創年度紀錄，這得益於燃油附加費上漲、強勁的定價收益和 2% 的銷量增長。創紀錄的營業收入增長 6% 至 99 億美元，其中包括燃油附加費帶來的近 7 億美元的淨增長。我們報告的全年運營率為 60.1%，與 2021 年相比下降了 290 個基點。網絡效率低下和通貨膨脹是性能下降的主要原因，PEB 調整和更高的燃料價格對全年運營率產生了 30 個基點和 20 個基點的影響，分別。

Earnings per share finished the year at a record $11.21, a 13% increase versus 2021 results. Our consistent and disciplined approach to deploying capital back into our railroad coupled with volume growth that produced increased operating income drove a 90 basis point improvement in return on invested capital to a record 17.3%.

全年每股收益達到創紀錄的 11.21 美元，比 2021 年增長 13%。我們一貫和嚴格的方法將資本重新部署到我們的鐵路，加上產量增長帶來了營業收入的增加，使投資資本回報率提高了 90 個基點，達到創紀錄的 17.3%。

Turning to shareholder returns on the balance sheet on Slide 21. Full year cash from operations increased over $300 million to $9.4 billion, a 4% increase from 2021. The first priority for our cash is capital investment, which finished 2022 at $3.4 billion or just under 14% of revenue. Our cash flow conversion rate finished 2022 at 82% and free cash flow totaled $2.7 billion. Although a decrease of nearly $800 million versus 2021, that includes an almost $700 million increase in cash capital, a more than $350 million increase in dividend payments and $70 million for PEB backpay settlements. Our dividend payout ratio for 2022 was around 45%, in line with our long-term target as we rewarded shareholders with a 10% dividend increase in the second quarter and distributed nearly $3.2 billion.

轉向幻燈片 21 資產負債表上的股東回報。全年運營現金增加了 3 億多美元，達到 94 億美元，比 2021 年增加了 4%。我們現金的首要任務是資本投資，到 2022 年結束時為 34 億美元，或僅不到收入的 14%。到 2022 年，我們的現金流轉換率為 82%，自由現金流總計 27 億美元。儘管與 2021 年相比減少了近 8 億美元，但這包括現金資本增加近 7 億美元，股息支付增加超過 3.5 億美元，以及 7000 萬美元用於 PEB 補發結算。我們 2022 年的股息支付率約為 45%，符合我們的長期目標，因為我們在第二季度獎勵股東增加 10% 的股息，並分配了近 32 億美元。

We also returned cash through strong share repurchases, buying back 5% or $27 million of our common shares at an all-in cost of $6.3 billion. In total, between dividends and share repurchases, we returned $9.4 billion to our owners in 2022, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to deliver significant shareholder value. We closed out the year at an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9x, consistent with our results to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings as we finished the year A rated by Moody's, S&P and Fitch.

我們還通過大量股票回購返還現金，以 63 億美元的總成本回購 5% 或 2700 萬美元的普通股。總的來說，在股息和股票回購之間，我們在 2022 年向所有者返還了 94 億美元，這表明我們一直致力於為股東創造可觀的價值。我們以 2.9 倍的調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率結束了這一年，這與我們維持強勁投資級信用評級的結果一致，因為我們完成了穆迪、標準普爾和惠譽對 A 的評級。

Turning now to our view on 2023. We think about the year ahead in 2 parts, what we can control and what we cannot. We don't control the markets we serve. And as you saw on Kenny's slide of economic indicators, it's a mixed bag in terms of expectations. We do control the way we compete in those markets with the great foundation of the UP franchise. Onboarding Schneider is clearly the marquee win for 2023 and with Kenny's team posting profitable wins across the board, we are positioned to further outperform the market. In 2023, that will be evidenced by car loadings that exceed industrial production.

現在談談我們對 2023 年的看法。我們分兩部分思考未來的一年，我們可以控制什麼，我們不能控制什麼。我們不控制我們服務的市場。正如您在肯尼的經濟指標幻燈片中看到的那樣，就預期而言，情況喜憂參半。憑藉 UP 特許經營權的強大基礎，我們確實控制了我們在這些市場中的競爭方式。加入 Schneider 顯然是 2023 年的重大勝利，隨著 Kenny 的團隊全面取得盈利，我們有望進一步跑贏市場。到 2023 年，這將通過超過工業生產的汽車裝載量來證明。

Another area where we don't have direct control is the current inflationary environment, which continues to be elevated. However, we know we have it within our control to improve operations. As you heard from Eric, it's imperative that we improve the reliability of our service product, while regaining lost productivity. In addition, as we've demonstrated consistently, we expect to generate pricing dollars that exceed inflation dollars in 2023.

我們無法直接控制的另一個領域是當前的通貨膨脹環境，它繼續升高。但是，我們知道我們可以控制改善運營。正如您從埃里克那裡聽到的那樣，我們必須提高服務產品的可靠性，同時恢復失去的生產力。此外，正如我們一貫證明的那樣，我們預計在 2023 年產生的定價美元將超過通貨膨脹美元。

Assuming current fuel prices and our thoughts on volume, productivity and price, we expect to improve our full year 2023 operating ratio on a year-over-year basis. That said, there will be a lag to fully offset the impact of inflation on our profitability until we are able to actively touch or reprice our business while also further improving productivity.

假設當前的燃料價格以及我們對產量、生產率和價格的看法，我們預計 2023 年全年的運營率將同比提高。也就是說，在我們能夠積極接觸或重新定價我們的業務同時進一步提高生產率之前，完全抵消通貨膨脹對我們盈利能力的影響將存在滯後。

Turning to capital allocation. We continue to make significant investments into our business with an expected 6% increase in capital investments versus 2022 to $3.6 billion. Growth is the cornerstone to the long-term financial success of Union Pacific, and we are continuing to invest in opportunities that support that strategy. In addition to the locomotive and intermodal investments Eric described, we also are investing to support carload growth. The remainder of our capital allocation plans remain unchanged, rewarding our owners with an industry-leading dividend payout of around 45% and returning excess cash through share repurchases.

轉向資本配置。我們繼續對我們的業務進行大量投資，預計資本投資將比 2022 年增加 6%，達到 36 億美元。增長是聯合太平洋取得長期財務成功的基石，我們將繼續投資於支持該戰略的機會。除了 Eric 描述的機車和多式聯運投資外，我們還在投資以支持載客量增長。我們的其餘資本配置計劃保持不變，以行業領先的約 45% 的股息支付回報我們的所有者，並通過股票回購返還多餘的現金。

With our balance sheet currently leveraged at the desired levels, the amount of cash available for repurchases will be less than in prior years and predominantly funded from cash generation. With the new year, comes new opportunities. And by focusing on what we can control, we are confident in our ability to provide strong value to all of our stakeholders in 2023.

由於我們的資產負債表目前處於理想水平，可用於回購的現金數量將少於往年，主要來自現金產生。新的一年，迎來了新的機遇。通過專注於我們可以控制的事情，我們有信心在 2023 年為所有利益相關者提供強大的價值。

So with that, I'll turn it back to Lance.

因此，我會把它轉回給蘭斯。

Thank you, Jennifer. Let's wrap up on Slide 24. We made great strides on personal safety in 2022, and it's imperative we continue that momentum. The commitment made by our employees to care for one another has been exceptional, resulting in our best employee safety metrics in 5 years. We look to further translate these gains into better derailment performance in the upcoming year. We understand that safety is about culture, and it's about engagement. Listening to and responding to our employees' needs and ideas will continue to improve our safety performance.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。讓我們結束幻燈片 24。我們在 2022 年在人身安全方面取得了長足進步，我們必須繼續保持這種勢頭。我們的員工做出的互相照顧的承諾非常出色，這使我們的員工安全指標達到了 5 年來最好的水平。我們希望在來年將這些收益進一步轉化為更好的脫軌性能。我們知道安全關乎文化，關乎參與。傾聽和回應我們員工的需求和想法將繼續提高我們的安全績效。

Our robust hiring pipeline and improving network fluidity strengthen crew availability. That leads to a more efficient and better service product that enables us to recapture lost productivity.

我們強大的招聘渠道和不斷改進的網絡流動性增強了船員的可用性。這會帶來更高效和更好的服務產品，使我們能夠重新獲得失去的生產力。

Over the past couple of years, we've demonstrated our commitment to customer-centered growth as reflected in business development wins. And while growth in 2023 may be challenging given the uncertainty of the economic backdrop, we will continue to make strategic capital investments in support of our long-term growth objectives.

在過去的幾年裡，我們已經證明了我們對以客戶為中心的增長的承諾，這反映在業務發展的勝利中。儘管鑑於經濟背景的不確定性，2023 年的增長可能充滿挑戰，但我們將繼續進行戰略資本投資，以支持我們的長期增長目標。

Our fundamentals for long-term success have not changed, powered by our best-in-industry employees and franchise a strategy built for profitable growth and a more efficient and reliable service product, Union Pacific is poised to do great things in 2023, and we are ready to prove it.

我們長期成功的基礎沒有改變，在我們行業最佳員工和特許經營的支持下，為盈利增長而建立的戰略和更高效、更可靠的服務產品，聯合太平洋公司準備在 2023 年大展宏圖，我們準備證明這一點。

So with that, let's open up the line for your questions.

因此，讓我們為您的問題打開熱線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will be coming from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Eric, kind of a bigger picture question for you. If we go back to the Investor Day and you laid out a multiyear productivity improvement for the network. Obviously, some of that's been delayed given the macro challenges, but are you confident that you can eventually obtain the aggregate plan over time? Or does the slower macro backdrop, higher labor costs, some of these recent service challenges, weather, et cetera, I mean that the total aggregate improvements are reset at a lower level going forward?

埃里克，對你來說是一個更宏觀的問題。如果我們回到投資者日，你為網絡制定了多年的生產力改進計劃。顯然，鑑於宏觀挑戰，其中一些計劃被推遲了，但您是否有信心隨著時間的推移最終獲得總體計劃？還是宏觀背景放緩、勞動力成本上升、最近的一些服務挑戰、天氣等，我的意思是總的總體改善在未來被重置在一個較低的水平？

Yes, Jon, thank you for that question. As we think about that, certainly, as we look at the environment right now and what lays in front of us, it may be over a longer period of time that those actually come to fruition. But everyone here remains focused on those commitments. And you see that in the activities that we've taken on in some of my prepared comments, I talked about some of the technology initiatives that are more focused not only in '23, but even beyond that.

是的，喬恩，謝謝你提出這個問題。當我們考慮這一點時，當然，當我們審視現在的環境和擺在我們面前的事物時，這些可能需要更長的時間才能真正實現。但在場的每個人仍然專注於這些承諾。你會看到，在我準備好的一些評論中我們已經開展的活動中，我談到了一些技術計劃，這些計劃不僅在 23 世紀更側重，甚至更側重於 23 世紀。

What's sitting in front of us right now is the biggest opportunity is to improve that service product that from it drives out that excess cost when we think about our locomotive and our workforce productivity. That's job #1 right now, but we're all still focused on the long-term targets that we gave you on the Investor Day.

現在擺在我們面前的最大機會是改進服務產品，當我們考慮我們的機車和我們的勞動力生產力時，它會從中消除多餘的成本。這是目前的第一要務，但我們仍然專注於我們在投資者日給你的長期目標。

Next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

I just wanted to ask about yields, particularly intermodal yields and how we should expect intermodal yield to develop in 2023, excluding the impact of fuel. There were some reports in the trade rags back in December that UP is cutting intermodal rates by 3% effective February. I just want to get maybe this question for Kenny, but just get a little bit more color on that specific item and then how you expect overall intermodal yields to trend as the new business comes on.

我只是想問一下收益，特別是多式聯運收益，以及我們應該如何預期多式聯運收益在 2023 年發展，不包括燃料的影響。早在 12 月份，就有一些報導稱 UP 將從 2 月起將多式聯運費率下調 3%。我可能只是想問 Kenny 這個問題，但只是在那個特定項目上獲得更多顏色，然後隨著新業務的出現，你如何期望整體多式聯運收益趨勢。

Yes. Thanks a lot, Amit. First of all, we're in the early stages of bid season, call it, 10% to 15%. You heard me call out in my notes, we are seeing some softness there in the marketplace. We've been encouraged that we're retaining all the business that we're out there competing for.

是的。非常感謝，阿米特。首先，我們正處於投標季節的早期階段，稱之為 10% 到 15%。你聽到我在筆記中大聲疾呼，我們看到市場有些疲軟。我們一直感到鼓舞，因為我們保留了我們在那裡競爭的所有業務。

I think it's too soon to call out what will happen in terms of pricing. But what I will tell you is that we do have mechanisms for our business to make sure that we can remain competitive in a challenged market like this, but also price to the market and make sure that we're capturing some of the upside as things get tight throughout the year.

我認為現在說定價方面會發生什麼還為時過早。但我要告訴你的是，我們確實有我們的業務機制來確保我們能夠在這樣一個充滿挑戰的市場中保持競爭力，同時也向市場定價，並確保我們抓住一些好處作為事情整年都變得緊張。

And Kenny, Amit, this is Lance. But Kenny, you're also remaining confident that as we put our plan together, all that included, we're still -- we see a clear path for pricing ahead of inflation.

肯尼，阿米特，這是蘭斯。但是肯尼，你也仍然有信心，當我們把我們的計劃放在一起時，包括所有的東西，我們仍然——我們看到了一條在通貨膨脹之前定價的清晰路徑。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

Maybe on the back of that answer, Jennifer, you did talk about a lagged ability to recapture some of the cost inflation on the price line. So I was wondering if you could expand on that and maybe also just discuss your fuel surcharge revenue that does appear to be above fuel expense for a certain period of 2022 and the mix impact that Kenny was just speaking about.

也許在這個答案的背後，詹妮弗，你確實談到了重新獲得價格線上部分成本通脹的滯後能力。所以我想知道您是否可以對此進行擴展，也許還可以討論您的燃油附加費收入，該收入在 2022 年的某個時期似乎確實高於燃油費用，以及肯尼剛才談到的混合影響。

That's a lot there in one question. But in terms of the lag part, so there is that piece when you think about our contract structure. So in any given year, call it, [55%], we're able to touch directly. The remainder is longer-term contracts, and they roll over in some segments over periods of years. Now those generally have escalators, but there can be limits on the escalators, and those are lagging as well.

一個問題就這麼多。但就滯後部分而言，當你考慮我們的合同結構時，就會有這一部分。因此，在任何給定年份，稱之為 [55%]，我們都可以直接接觸。其餘部分是長期合同，它們在某些部分會在幾年內展期。現在那些一般都有自動扶梯，但是自動扶梯可能有限制，而且那些也很落後。

So that's what we're referring to as having a lag impact as well as kind of going back to the first question to Eric, still very confident in our productivity initiatives, but we did take a step back this year, and we have to acknowledge that and it's going to take us a little bit to gain that back because the inflation is real. That's a real factor that is certainly above what we have seen historically when you think about 4% kind of number for 2023. So that's that piece.

所以這就是我們所說的滯後影響以及回到第一個問題給 Eric 的問題，他對我們的生產力計劃仍然非常有信心，但我們今年確實後退了一步，我們必須承認那並且我們需要一點時間才能恢復它，因為通貨膨脹是真實的。當你考慮 2023 年 4% 的數字時，這是一個真實的因素，肯定高於我們歷史上看到的水平。就是這樣。

You also mentioned fuel surcharge. And yes, that was a positive contributor to us on an EPS operating income front in 2023. And so depending on what you estimate for fuel prices, that could be a headwind for us at some point. Overall, we averaged, I think, [$365 million] for the year. Right now, we're paying closer to, call it, [$315 million, $320 million.] So that could certainly be a difference when you think about year-over-year comparisons on the fuel surcharge revenue.

你還提到了燃油附加費。是的，這對我們在 2023 年的 EPS 營業收入方面做出了積極貢獻。因此，根據您對燃油價格的估計，這在某些時候可能對我們不利。總的來說，我認為我們全年平均 [3.65 億美元]。現在，我們支付的費用接近 [3.15 億美元，3.2 億美元。] 因此，當您考慮燃油附加費收入的同比比較時，這肯定會有所不同。

I think he also asked about mix.

我想他也問了混音。

Mix. I knew there was one more in there. So from a mix standpoint, yes, I mean, fourth quarter mix was certainly negative when you look at it. And one of the things probably that really jumps out at you think about intermodal, but in particular, international intermodal and the year-over-year comparison, when you think about last year, international intermodal was down substantially.

混合。我知道裡面還有一個。所以從混合的角度來看，是的，我的意思是，當你看到它時，第四季度的混合肯定是負面的。考慮到多式聯運，特別是國際多式聯運和同比比較，當你想到去年時，國際多式聯運大幅下降。

And then we saw it grow here in the fourth quarter this year, plus forest products, some of the industrial segments a little weaker in the fourth quarter and higher rock shipments. So it's kind of that all-in and look there, Brandon. Now I think...

然後我們看到它在今年第四季度在這裡增長，加上林產品，一些工業部門在第四季度有點疲軟，岩石出貨量增加。所以這是一種全押，看那裡，布蘭登。現在我想...

Our next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

So I wanted to ask about the target for growth to exceed industrial production. It seems like a little bit of a low bogey given the service improvement that's expected for 2023, given the cost advantages for the railroad. And then in particular, the addition of Schneider's Intermodal business. You've obviously seen a lot of volume in recent years, but I wonder -- get a little bit more clarity on kind of what that means in terms of that expectation for industrial production. I'm sorry, for growth to exceed industrial production?

所以我想問一下增長超過工業生產的目標。考慮到鐵路的成本優勢，預計 2023 年的服務將有所改善，這似乎有點低迷。然後特別是施耐德多式聯運業務的加入。近年來你顯然已經看到了很多數量，但我想知道 - 更清楚地了解這對工業生產的預期意味著什麼。對不起，增長超過工業生產？

And then over kind of a longer 3- to 5-year time horizon, how you're thinking about the prospects for UP to grow volume significantly ahead of kind of economic growth?

然後在更長的 3 到 5 年時間範圍內，您如何看待 UP 在經濟增長之前顯著增長的前景？

Yes, Ari, this is Lance. So I'm going to start -- I'm going to focus my commentary on 2023, and then I'll turn it over to Kenny to broaden that out. Clearly, what you're seeing from us is a perspective that says there's a lot of uncertainty as we enter 2023. You could see it in some of the macroeconomic indicators that Kenny shared but you can hear it and see it across the board in many markets right now.

是的，阿里，這是蘭斯。所以我要開始——我將把我的評論集中在 2023 年，然後我會把它交給肯尼來擴大它。顯然，你從我們這裡看到的是一種觀點，表明我們進入 2023 年時存在很多不確定性。你可以在肯尼分享的一些宏觀經濟指標中看到這一點，但你可以在許多方面聽到並看到它現在市場。

And so while we're confident we can outperform industrial production, which is an underlying driver for a fair amount of what we ship, going beyond that and becoming more granular just is it's a little too early in the year given all the uncertainty that we see. So hard to stop on that.

因此，儘管我們有信心我們可以超越工業生產，這是我們大量發貨的潛在驅動力，但超越這一點並變得更加細化只是考慮到我們所有的不確定性，今年還為時過早看。很難停下來。

Yes. So Lance, I want to hit hard for those on the call, the mindset of this management team and the commercial team is really to drive business development. And so that's one thing that we can control. There are some markets out there that we really want to go after that we think are right. Renewable diesel is one of them, and we feel good and confident about the wins there.

是的。所以蘭斯，我想對那些接聽電話的人說重話，這個管理團隊和商業團隊的心態真的是推動業務發展。所以這是我們可以控制的一件事。有一些市場我們真的很想去追求我們認為是正確的。可再生柴油就是其中之一，我們對那裡的勝利感到滿意和自信。

If you look at finished vehicles, both the finished vehicle side and also the auto parts side is an area that we feel good about. There are some expansions that are coming along our line that we won in the petrochem area with plastics and industrial chem. And then also, we've talked and been very bullish about metals as we've seen some wins come up there. So very focused on the things we can control and been encouraged that car velocity has been improving along the way.

如果你看整車，整車方面和汽車零部件方面都是我們感覺良好的領域。我們在石化領域贏得了塑料和工業化學方面的一些擴張。然後，我們已經討論過並非常看好金屬，因為我們已經看到那裡出現了一些勝利。所以非常專注於我們可以控制的事情，並鼓勵汽車速度一直在提高。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Tom Wadewitz。

So I wanted to touch a little bit on some of the price commentary. Can you say like kind of broad brush, what you're assuming on intermodal revenue per car and coal revenue per car. What are you assuming when you talk about pricing dollars above inflation?

所以我想稍微談談一些價格評論。你能不能粗略地說一下，你對每輛車的多式聯運收入和每輛車的煤炭收入的假設是什麼。當你談論美元定價高於通脹時，你在假設什麼？

And then maybe if you can just offer a comment and kind of broader pricing. Is the dynamic changing in rail competition? You've won a bunch of business over the last, I don't know, 18 months. Is that having an effect on the competitive dynamic? Or would you say things are pretty stable?

然後也許你可以提供評論和更廣泛的定價。鐵路競爭的動態是否正在發生變化？在過去的 18 個月裡，我不知道，你贏得了很多生意。這對競爭動態有影響嗎？或者你會說事情很穩定嗎？

So Tom, let me take the first part of that question, and then I'll let Kenny address the second part. We're not going to give comments on directional guidance for RPU for various line items. You know the factors that are going to drive that. It's certainly the pricing, but also fuel surcharge and then the mix of the business within that line. So those will all be things that will play into what that turns out to for [2022].

湯姆，讓我回答這個問題的第一部分，然後讓肯尼回答第二部分。我們不會就各種行項目的 RPU 方向指導發表評論。你知道推動它的因素。這當然是定價，還有燃油附加費，然後是該系列中的業務組合。因此，這些都將影響 [2022] 的結果。

Yes. Let me lead again with something Lance mentioned that we feel very confident that we'll be able to price over the inflation dollars. So I want to say that our commercial team has done a great job of articulating the need to price to the market. When we talk about price into the market, we've talked about some of those dynamics. Inflation is one our customers are facing that, too. They understand that.

是的。讓我再次以 Lance 提到的一些事情為首，我們非常有信心我們能夠為通貨膨脹美元定價。所以我想說我們的商業團隊在向市場闡明定價需求方面做得很好。當我們談論進入市場的價格時，我們已經談論了其中的一些動態。通貨膨脹也是我們的客戶面臨的一個問題。他們明白這一點。

But we also talk pretty broadly about investment. When I say investments, part of what I'm talking about is what Eric is doing with our capital plan. The other part is making sure that we're resourced the (inaudible) in on that. We're having those conversations with customers and we are articulating that.

但我們也非常廣泛地談論投資。當我說投資時，我所說的部分內容是埃里克對我們的資本計劃所做的事情。另一部分是確保我們為此提供了（聽不清）資源。我們正在與客戶進行這些對話，我們正在闡明這一點。

Tom, this is Lance. We've also got to recognize that I think underlying your question certainly in the intermodal space is that the truck market is pretty darn loose right now. And certainly, it's not as fruitful of an environment to be pricing in as, let's say, a year or 1.5 years ago. But that doesn't change any of what Kenny just said. It just makes the job harder.

湯姆，這是蘭斯。我們還必須認識到，我認為在多式聯運領域，你的問題的根本是卡車市場現在相當鬆散。當然，定價環境不像一年或 1.5 年前那樣富有成果。但這不會改變肯尼剛才所說的任何內容。這只會讓工作變得更難。

So you assume that in your pricing guide that you have those pressures on intermodal price, I guess?

所以你假設在你的定價指南中你對多式聯運價格有壓力，我猜？

Yes. All in, we understand it, and it's assumed in there.

是的。總而言之，我們了解它，並且假設它在那裡。

The next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

I just wanted to talk on that growth and sort of that service product commentary. A lot of investment obviously being put into the productivity headcount and so forth to drive that this year. But as we look past that, are you thinking through that service product differently in terms of investment, whether it's trying to improve the ease of doing business with you or transparency with customers? Just any thoughts there on how that might be evolving over time?

我只想談談這種增長和那種服務產品評論。顯然，今年有大量投資被投入到生產力人員等方面來推動這一點。但當我們回顧過去時，您是否在投資方面以不同的方式思考該服務產品，無論是試圖提高與您開展業務的便利性還是提高與客戶的透明度？關於隨著時間的推移可能會如何演變的任何想法？

Yes, Allison, thank you for the question. This is Lance again. We are thinking more broadly about what is necessary to support growth in our service product. And it takes a lot of different forms. I'll start in the intermodal space. We've made investments in things called UPGo and Precision Gate Technology. PGT allows trucks to essentially enter and exit the ramp without stopping. Paperless, and uses technology and pre clears, if you will, the load with machine vision before the truck even gets there.

是的，Allison，謝謝你提出這個問題。這又是蘭斯。我們正在更廣泛地思考支持我們服務產品增長的必要條件。它有很多不同的形式。我將從多式聯運空間開始。我們對 UPGo 和 Precision Gate Technology 進行了投資。 PGT 允許卡車在不停車的情況下進出坡道。無紙化，使用技術和預先清除，如果你願意的話，在卡車到達那里之前用機器視覺裝載。

UPGo is a holistic tool that our IMCs can use and it can be embedded on their own platforms so that once a drivers on our property, they know exactly where to go. They know exactly where all the facilities are. They know a map of the facility, and we've done a hell of a job signing and improving the signage on our properties. So that's just 1 example where if truck drivers, if dray drivers have a better, faster experience on our property, we might be able to help them get an extra turn now and then that helps move boxes off our ramp, and that's a better service product in the end.

UPGo 是我們的 IMC 可以使用的整體工具，它可以嵌入到他們自己的平台上，這樣一旦我們的司機在我們的財產上，他們就知道該去哪裡。他們確切地知道所有設施的位置。他們知道該設施的地圖，我們在簽署和改進我們財產上的標牌方面做得非常出色。所以這只是一個例子，如果卡車司機，如果貨車司機在我們的物業上有更好、更快的體驗，我們也許可以幫助他們不時多轉一圈，這有助於將箱子從我們的坡道上移開，這是一項更好的服務產品到底。

But why don't I turn it over to Kenny, you first and then Eric for more detail.

但為什麼我不把它轉交給 Kenny，首先是你，然後是 Eric 了解更多細節。

Yes. Lance, you talked about our premium network. And again, Allison, those products show up in terms of Inland Empire in our product in Twin Cities that we feel very encouraged and confident about and filling those areas out. And it also shows up in other areas like our investments in GPS, our investment in chassis. On the carload side, we're really excited about what's taking place with [RailPulse]. So you're seeing it across the board, both on our carload side and in our intermodal network.

是的。蘭斯，你談到了我們的高級網絡。再一次，艾莉森，這些產品以內陸帝國的形式出現在我們雙城的產品中，我們感到非常鼓舞和自信，並填補了這些領域。它也出現在其他領域，比如我們對 GPS 的投資，我們對底盤的投資。在整車方面，我們對 [RailPulse] 正在發生的事情感到非常興奮。所以你在我們的貨運方面和我們的多式聯運網絡中都看到了它。

And Allison, as we think about consistent and reliable service, a couple of examples from the operating side that we're all involved in is -- and when I talk about modernizations, an improvement in reliability of 50% in those locomotives wants modernized, it's significant. It's meaningful. It's less variability that will drive improved service. And even as we think about even on our crews, and we're talking about how do we approach that differently. When we talk about consistent schedules for our crews, we're talking about the trade -- or the benefit for us collectively which has improved availability. Improved availability again reduces variability and drives a more consistent and reliable service product.

艾莉森，當我們考慮一致和可靠的服務時，我們都參與的運營方面的幾個例子是 - 當我談到現代化時，那些機車的可靠性提高了 50% 需要現代化，這很重要。這是有意義的。更少的可變性將推動改進的服務。甚至當我們考慮我們的工作人員時，我們正在談論我們如何以不同的方式處理這個問題。當我們談論為我們的工作人員安排一致的時間表時，我們是在談論交易——或者說提高可用性對我們集體的好處。可用性的提高再次減少了可變性並推動了更加一致和可靠的服務產品。

The next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

So if inflation is running around 4% and price mix is running flat, slightly negative right now. I guess, how do we get confidence in margin improvement for the year? I guess maybe, Jen, do you think is it the price mix reaccelerates from here? Is it cost getting better? Just help us sort of get confidence in that margin improvement? And then just separately, any color on this -- on other revenue and how you're thinking about that for the year?

因此，如果通貨膨脹率在 4% 左右並且價格組合持平，那麼現在略有負數。我想，我們如何對今年的利潤率提高有信心？我想也許，珍，你認為價格組合會從這裡重新加速嗎？成本會變好嗎？只是幫助我們對利潤率的提高有信心嗎？然後單獨地，關於其他收入的任何顏色以及您如何考慮今年的收入？

Yes. So I'll start with the confidence around the margin improvement. And we are confident in our ability to do that. Certainly, there are headwinds, and you've just pointed to a couple of them. But then go back to the things I talked about in terms of how we're looking at the year and the key levers, which, as you know, are volume, price and productivity.

是的。所以我將從對利潤率提高的信心開始。我們有信心做到這一點。當然，有逆風，你剛剛指出了其中的幾個。但是然後回到我談到的關於我們如何看待這一年和關鍵槓桿的事情，正如你所知，這些槓桿是數量、價格和生產力。

So volume certainly is a wildcard, and we'll see how that plays out. Pricing, we are confident that although it is going to lag a bit, we are confident that our price will -- price dollars will exceed inflation dollars. And then the productivity side, we know we have upside there. Yes, we're still adding resources and taking some steps to heal the network today. But we also know that there's a pipeline of opportunities to improve, and we have those identified and we know what actions we need to put up against that to do that. And then as you do that and as the network hills, that gives us more opportunities on the volume side. We still know we're mixing bulk loads today. So those are opportunities for us to get more leverage across that cost base.

因此，成交量肯定是一個通配符，我們將拭目以待。定價，我們有信心，雖然它會有點滯後，但我們有信心我們的價格會——價格美元將超過通貨膨脹美元。然後是生產力方面，我們知道我們在那裡有優勢。是的，我們今天仍在增加資源並採取一些措施來修復網絡。但我們也知道有很多機會可以改進，我們已經確定了這些機會，並且我們知道我們需要採取什麼行動來做到這一點。然後當你這樣做的時候，隨著網絡的發展，這給了我們更多的機會。我們仍然知道我們今天正在混合散裝貨物。因此，這些是我們在該成本基礎上獲得更多影響力的機會。

And then obviously, there's fuel, which I mentioned before. And we'll see how that plays out. But right now, we're certainly playing a little bit less, call it, $0.40 or so less than what we were paying a year ago or what we paid for the full year 2022. So those are all the things that we're looking at, Scott, and we believe that those combination of factors are setting up in a way that we will be able to drive OR improvement.

顯然，還有我之前提到的燃料。我們將看看結果如何。但是現在，我們肯定比一年前或 2022 年全年支付的費用少了 0.40 美元左右。所以這些都是我們正在尋找的東西在，斯科特，我們相信這些因素的組合正在以我們能夠推動或改進的方式建立。

To your question on other revenue, so I think that's really a question maybe more geared towards accessorials and what we see playing out there. As the supply chain has healed, as we're seeing a little bit of softness in that intermodal market, we have seen accessorials come down a bit. They were down a little bit for us here in the fourth quarter. And that would probably be my expectation going into 2023 as well.

關於你關於其他收入的問題，所以我認為這真的是一個可能更適合配件和我們在那裡看到的東西的問題。隨著供應鏈的恢復，我們看到多式聯運市場有點疲軟，我們看到配件有所下降。他們在第四節對我們來說有所下降。這可能也是我對 2023 年的期望。

And that's a good thing, right?

這是一件好事，對吧？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

We want that fluidity. We want the entire network to match the kind of fluidity that we're putting up post Christmas holiday. They're still in the intermodal supply chain, there's still some elevated street time for boxes and chassis. And that's the last piece that reflects excess inventory that's going to have to get worked out.

我們想要那種流動性。我們希望整個網絡能夠與我們在聖誕節假期後提供的那種流動性相匹配。他們仍在多式聯運供應鏈中，箱子和底盤的上街時間仍然有所增加。這是反映必須解決的過剩庫存的最後一部分。

Our next question is from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Fadi Chamoun。

Question on the operating side a little bit. Maybe Jennifer, if you can help us understand what were these unique costs is in network congestion in 2022, so we can kind of play those numbers going forward. But the main question I got is, if I look at your operational productivity data in the fourth quarter and compare that to a couple of years ago when you were running well, locomotive productivity, car velocity are still 13%, 14% lower than they were in headcount and 5% higher, but volumes are flat.

關於操作方面的問題。也許詹妮弗，如果你能幫助我們了解 2022 年網絡擁塞的這些獨特成本是什麼，那麼我們就可以在未來發揮這些數字。但我得到的主要問題是，如果我查看你們第四季度的運營生產率數據，並將其與幾年前你們運行良好時進行比較，機車生產率、車廂速度仍然比他們低 13%、14%人數增加了 5%，但銷量持平。

Do you have now the resources you think to get back to those levels that you've had a couple of years ago? Like what are the really remaining things we need to do to get the network to spend a lot higher than it has been in the last few quarters?

您現在是否擁有您認為可以恢復到幾年前水平的資源？比如我們還需要做些什麼才能讓網絡的支出比過去幾個季度高很多？

Yes. I wasn't -- I don't know that I totally caught the first part of your question there, Fadi, but I think you were basically asking to quantify what the congestion costs were for our network for 2022. And we have not quantified that other than we -- when you look at our operating ratio and the degradation that we had on a year-over-year basis, 290 basis points, 50 basis points of that was a combination of PEB and fuel. The rest of that was inflation and congestion and probably fairly equally weighted between the 2. So that's how I would think about that. That is our opportunity, certainly and that feeds through all of the lines. It feeds through wage inflation.

是的。 Fadi，我不是——我不知道我是否完全理解了你問題的第一部分，但我認為你基本上是在要求量化 2022 年我們網絡的擁堵成本。我們還沒有量化除了我們——當你查看我們的運營比率和我們同比下降時，290 個基點，其中 50 個基點是 PEB 和燃料的組合。其餘的是通貨膨脹和擁堵，並且兩者之間的權重可能相當相等。所以這就是我的想法。這當然是我們的機會，而且貫穿所有方面。它通過工資通脹來支撐。

Now some of that, obviously, is real. We have the PEB, we know that's real. But then it's how we use the crews, and you've heard us talk about the fact that in 2022, we had higher recrew rates, we have higher borrow out costs, more deadhead and held away, more vans. Those all inflate those cost categories. Purchased services, as we were putting more locomotives into service, that inflated those costs on a year-over-year basis in addition to some of just the contractor inflation that we saw as all of our suppliers were faced with higher inflation, and you saw that come through.

顯然，其中一些是真實的。我們有 PEB，我們知道那是真的。但這就是我們使用船員的方式，你已經聽過我們談論這樣一個事實，即在 2022 年，我們有更高的再僱用率，我們有更高的借貸成本，更多的空頭和滯留，更多的貨車。這些都誇大了這些成本類別。購買的服務，因為我們將更多的機車投入使用，除了我們看到的一些承包商通貨膨脹之外，這些成本逐年增加，因為我們所有的供應商都面臨著更高的通貨膨脹，你看到了通過。

And then on the other line, we know we have opportunities there from a casualty standpoint. You heard us talk about casualty a couple of different times in 2022 and the higher cost that, that brought to us. So those are all elements that we are now very much focused on attacking. You asked are we rightsized yet. You've heard us say, we still are short crews in critical locations. We're still hiring. So we still need to bring folks onto our network. That does 2 things that helps the -- well, 3 things only, helps improve our reliability, our fluidity. It helps us move more volumes.

然後在另一條線上，我們知道從傷亡的角度來看我們有機會。你聽到我們在 2022 年多次談論傷亡以及由此給我們帶來的更高成本。所以這些都是我們現在非常專注於攻擊的元素。你問我們是否調整了規模。你聽過我們說，我們在關鍵地點仍然人手不足。我們還在招聘。所以我們仍然需要讓人們加入我們的網絡。這有兩件事可以幫助——嗯，只有三件事，有助於提高我們的可靠性和流動性。它可以幫助我們移動更多的捲。

And as we're able to hire folks in those critical locations, we then move the people that we have working there in terms of borrow outs back to their home location, and that reduces our cost base as well, and you can improve your recrew rate. So a lot of different moving parts there, Fadi. You know our business isn't just 1 element, but that's how we're looking at it. Those are the things that impacted us in 2022, and that's what we're looking to do in 2023.

由於我們能夠在這些關鍵位置僱用人員，然後我們將在那里工作的人員以藉貸的方式轉移回他們的家鄉，這也降低了我們的成本基礎，你可以改善你的員工隊伍速度。 Fadi，這裡有很多不同的活動部分。您知道我們的業務不僅僅是 1 個元素，但這就是我們看待它的方式。這些是 2022 年影響我們的事情，也是我們 2023 年希望做的事情。

Yes. I think the other part of Fadi's question is a structural question, like did something structurally change. And on the 5 critical resources, nothing structurally changed on line of road and terminal, how you achieve freight car utilization, how you achieve locomotive utilization. We probably look at crews differently going forward than we did historically. That means a little bit more on board so that we're not staffed at the tight end. We're staffed a bit looser, that's hundreds, it's not thousands. And then also making sure that we have a watch back in place to the extent that we've got counterparties that want to negotiate that.

是的。我認為 Fadi 問題的另一部分是結構性問題，比如是否進行了結構性改變。而在這5個關鍵資源上，道路和碼頭的線路結構上沒有任何變化，你如何實現貨車利用，你如何實現機車利用。我們可能會以與以往不同的方式看待未來的工作人員。這意味著船上有更多的人手，這樣我們就不會人手緊缺。我們的人員配置比較鬆散，是數百人，而不是數千人。然後還要確保我們有一個觀察到我們有想要談判的交易對手的程度。

So that's probably the only thing, and I think that's probably an asterisk as opposed to a major headline.

所以這可能是唯一的事情，我認為這可能是一個星號而不是一個主要標題。

And helps increase more volumes ultimately.

並最終幫助增加更多的數量。

That's right. It supports us for growth.

這是正確的。它支持我們成長。

Our next question comes from the line of Justin Long, Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自斯蒂芬斯賈斯汀朗的台詞。

I guess to follow up on that last question. If I just run the quick math, it seems like there was around 120 basis points of headwind to the OR last year from congestion. So as you think about kind of recapturing what I'll call lost productivity, do you need to see volume growth in order to get that back? Or can you see improvement in the absence of volume growth?

我想跟進最後一個問題。如果我只是快速計算一下，去年 OR 似乎有大約 120 個基點的逆風來自擁堵。因此，當你考慮重新奪回我稱之為生產力損失的東西時，你是否需要看到銷量增長才能恢復？或者在沒有銷量增長的情況下你能看到改善嗎？

And I guess, on the cadence of the OR Jennifer, is it reasonable to say that first half OR probably doesn't improve year-over-year, so this is more back half weighted?

而且我想，根據 OR Jennifer 的節奏，可以合理地說上半年 OR 可能沒有同比改善，所以這是更多的後半加權？

Yes. Jennifer, why don't I start with, can you recover productivity without volume growth? The answer is yes. And we anticipate volume growth as well, which is a tailwind.

是的。詹妮弗，為什麼我不開始，你能在沒有產量增長的情況下恢復生產力嗎？答案是肯定的。我們預計銷量也會增長，這是順風。

Yes. So the only thing I'd say in terms of cadence there is really pointing out to the fuel piece of it and where you saw fuel was a bigger headwind to us in the earlier part of the year than the latter part of the year. You saw some of the inflation pick up in the latter part of the year. So there's some trade-offs there either way that I would just ask you to look at your models pretty closely there because there are differences first half, second half in 2022 that you need to be thinking through there.

是的。因此，就節奏而言，我唯一要說的是，它確實指出了它的燃料部分，而你看到燃料的地方在今年早些時候對我們來說比今年下半年更大。你看到了今年下半年的一些通貨膨脹。因此，無論哪種方式，都需要權衡取捨，我只想請您仔細查看您的模型，因為 2022 年上半年和下半年存在差異，您需要仔細考慮。

The next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Walter Spracklin。

I just want to come back to the yield question, sorry to focus on that. But there were -- and Jennifer, you mentioned a number of the key drivers being core price and fuel surcharge and mix and so on. I just wanted to make sure that we're understanding the charges that you were levying of the congestion side, those search -- I'll call it congestion surcharges for lack of a better word, that you registered through 2022.

我只想回到產量問題，很抱歉專注於此。但是有——詹妮弗，你提到了核心價格、燃油附加費和混合等一些關鍵驅動因素。我只是想確保我們了解您在擁堵方面徵收的費用，那些搜索 - 我將其稱為擁堵附加費，因為沒有更好的詞，您在 2022 年之前註冊了。

Are they -- with them going away, does not -- is that not another factor that will weigh against your revenue per carload? Or is that just not meaningful enough to enter into the equation?

他們是否——隨著他們的離開，不是——這不是另一個會影響你每車收入的因素嗎？還是這還不足以進入等式？

Jennifer, you want to take that?

詹妮弗，你想接受嗎？

I think you were referencing congestion surcharges?

我想你指的是擁堵附加費？

I think he's talking about accessorial.

我認為他在談論附屬品。

Oh, accessorial. Okay. Again, we do expect that they could be less year-over-year, but I don't see that as a significant driver for us.

哦，附屬品。好的。同樣，我們確實預計它們可能會比去年同期減少，但我不認為這對我們來說是一個重要的推動力。

Okay. Fair enough. And just on the coal side, there's a lot of talk about deteriorating coal statistics, just understanding your catchment area. I know you got a plus on that outlook. How does that compare with what we're hearing from the EIA and what you're seeing in your catchment area?

好的。很公平。在煤炭方面，有很多關於煤炭統計數據惡化的討論，只要了解你的集水區。我知道你對這種前景有加分。這與我們從 EIA 聽到的以及您在您的服務區看到的相比如何？

Kenny?

肯尼？

Yes. We feel good about being able to move coal in these natural gas prices and even the forward curve for the rest of the year. I'll tell you, there's still quite a bit of low inventories out there. So I can assure you, those customers are willing and able to receive that coal demand that's out there.

是的。我們對能夠在這些天然氣價格甚至今年剩餘時間的遠期曲線中移動煤炭感到滿意。我會告訴你，那裡仍然有相當多的低庫存。所以我可以向你保證，這些客戶願意並且能夠接受那裡的煤炭需求。

The next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 和 Susquehanna 的系列。

Lance. As the Chairman of UP, can you talk a little bit to the longer-term transition plans? What skill sets do you think the Board really is focused on for the next leader of the business. And any time line around that as we've seen some of the leadership at the other Class 1s start to change?

槊。作為 UP 的董事長，您能談談更長期的過渡計劃嗎？您認為董事會真正關注下一任業務領導者的哪些技能組合。當我們看到其他 1 級的一些領導層開始發生變化時，圍繞它的任何時間線？

Sure, Bascome. So we have not announced any leadership transition or timing. We do periodically as a Board review what our needs are, both the skills matrix of the Board and also the skills and development of our leadership team or the management team. And so yes, Board has a strong eye on that, knows on a running basis, what we're looking for, what we're thinking about. And while we don't have anything announced, I will make sure, and we, as a company, will make sure that it is transparent when it does occur.

當然，巴斯科姆。因此，我們尚未宣布任何領導層交接或時間安排。作為董事會，我們會定期審查我們的需求，包括董事會的技能矩陣以及我們領導團隊或管理團隊的技能和發展。所以是的，董事會對此非常關注，在運行的基礎上知道我們在尋找什麼，我們在想什麼。雖然我們沒有任何宣布，但我會確保，作為一家公司，我們將確保它在確實發生時是透明的。

Next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Just sort of curious, what are customers -- I mean, obviously, intermodal is a big part of the longer-term story and important near term, too. But what do customers tell you in terms of hey, rails have had a tough time service-wise the last year or so, when are they going to be open to really trying you guys again and maybe shifting some of that business back from truck? And could that happen in an environment where truck rates are so beat up right now as well?

只是有點好奇，客戶是什麼——我的意思是，顯然，多式聯運是長期故事的重要組成部分，也是近期的重要部分。但是客戶告訴你什麼，嘿，鐵路在過去一年左右的時間裡在服務方面經歷了一段艱難的時期，他們什麼時候才能真正再次嘗試你們並可能將部分業務從卡車上轉移回來？在卡車費率現在也如此低迷的環境中，這種情況會發生嗎？

Yes, Kenny, you want to take that? Because we are still winning business off of truck.

是的，肯尼，你想接受嗎？因為我們仍在贏得卡車業務。

Yes. I mean we're definitely still winning business from truck. And what I would tell you is that we haven't seen any large pieces. And I said that they're earlier move away from them. A lot of that is driven by the economy. Clearly, some of the service challenges we have, we may have seen some lanes move [averse] via truck or maybe another mode. But our customers realize that this is a short-term phenomenon and that we're investing. We've been very transparent in our investment again in hiring and our investment in our CapEx, so that they can stay with us.

是的。我的意思是我們肯定還在從卡車上贏得業務。我要告訴你的是，我們還沒有看到任何大塊。我說他們早點離開他們。其中很大一部分是由經濟驅動的。顯然，我們面臨的一些服務挑戰，我們可能已經看到一些車道通過卡車或其他方式移動[規避]。但我們的客戶意識到這是一種短期現象，我們正在投資。我們在招聘和資本支出方面的投資再次非常透明，這樣他們就可以留在我們身邊。

Well, Kenny, sustainability has also been playing a bigger and bigger role in that. Some of our sophisticated customers, we're helping them understand and they're asking us for greater detail on how we can be part of their sustainability initiatives, and that's driving more look at us as opposed to less look at us. We just joined the Dallas Sustainability Index, and that's just a 1 marker of many that say that we're quite serious in making good progress in those areas.

好吧，肯尼，可持續性在這方面也發揮著越來越大的作用。我們的一些經驗豐富的客戶，我們正在幫助他們理解，他們要求我們提供更多關於我們如何成為他們可持續發展計劃的一部分的細節，這促使更多人關注我們，而不是更少關注我們。我們剛剛加入了達拉斯可持續發展指數，這只是許多表明我們非常認真地在這些領域取得良好進展的標誌之一。

I mean, Lance, you talked about it a little bit earlier. If you look at our car velocity from the summer to now, we've seen some improvement. And Eric and I were talking about this a couple of days ago. If you look at third quarter to fourth quarter sequentially on our premium network, that is improving as we onboard at Schneider. So that gives us a lot of confidence.

我的意思是，蘭斯，你之前談到過它。如果你看看我們從夏天到現在的汽車速度，我們已經看到了一些改進。埃里克和我幾天前就在談論這個。如果您在我們的高級網絡上按順序查看第三季度至第四季度，那麼隨著我們加入施耐德，情況正在改善。所以這給了我們很大的信心。

Right.

正確的。

I just sort of just continuing on that, I mean, the other side of shares, the West Coast probably lost to the East Coast this year for a myriad of reasons. Do you think some of that shifts back over the course of 2023?

我只是繼續說下去，我的意思是，股票的另一面，今年西海岸可能因為種種原因輸給了東海岸。您認為其中一些會在 2023 年期間恢復原狀嗎？

Some of that was really, I think, labor challenges that you saw in the port and a little bit of ambiguity on what they thought might happen. I think as we see that clear up on the port that you'll see a little bit more of that volume come back to the West Coast port. Again, everything that we're doing, all of our investments around Inland Empire, the G4 (inaudible) Dallas I'm telling you we're bullish to make sure we can make those areas more competitive for the customers.

我認為，其中一些確實是您在港口看到的勞工挑戰，以及他們對可能發生的事情的看法有些模糊。我認為，當我們看到港口清理乾淨時，您會看到更多的貨物返回西海岸港口。再一次，我們正在做的一切，我們圍繞內陸帝國的所有投資，G4（聽不清）達拉斯我告訴你我們很樂觀，以確保我們可以使這些地區對客戶更具競爭力。

Next question is from the line of Cheril Radbourne with TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的 Cheril Radbourne。

My question sort of picked up on that last one. I did want to ask about the next outlook for international intermodal. Clearly, the inventory cycle is the most important factor there. So I'm curious whether implicit in your guidance is the potential for a second half recovery in intermodal? And then along with that, I was also curious on your thoughts regarding the timing of a labor settlement on the West Coast and what you thought for that would mean for market share in L.A. Long Beach, which I think you just addressed?

我的問題有點像最後一個問題。我確實想問一下國際聯運的下一個前景。顯然，庫存週期是其中最重要的因素。所以我很好奇您的指導中是否隱含了多式聯運下半年復甦的潛力？除此之外，我也很好奇你對西海岸勞資協議的時間安排的看法，以及你認為這對洛杉磯長灘的市場份額意味著什麼，我想你剛剛談到了這一點？

Let me start, Kenny, and I'll talk to the labor negotiation that's going on in the West Coast. So that started up, I want to say, in July of last year. There has been a negotiation. There hasn't been a lot of progress announced publicly, but the port directors share with us that they have confidence they're going to reach an agreement that there's -- the temperature is low, and there's a line of sight to reach agreement. So from that perspective, I think we're going to be okay.

肯尼，讓我先談談西海岸正在進行的勞資談判。所以我想說，這是從去年 7 月開始的。已經進行了談判。公開宣布的進展不多，但港口主管與我們分享，他們有信心達成協議——溫度很低，而且有達成協議的視線。所以從這個角度來看，我認為我們會沒事的。

Yes, as we're spending time with customers, as a mixed bag when they think some of these inventory issues will get resolved. So some are saying summer and some are saying back half of third quarter. For us, we're not going to try to time that or be so precise at the time. What we're really focused on is making sure that we've got the service product where it should. And I just want to double down on what I said sequentially, we're seeing that improvement. We've onboarded a large customer, and we're walking towards trying to capture that growth when it shows up or when a pop.

是的，當我們花時間與客戶打交道時，當他們認為其中一些庫存問題會得到解決時，我們會成為一個混合包。所以有些人說夏天，有些人說第三季度的一半。對於我們來說，我們不會嘗試計時或在當時如此精確。我們真正關注的是確保我們在應有的地方提供服務產品。我只是想加倍強調我所說的順序，我們看到了這種改進。我們已經吸引了一個大客戶，並且我們正在努力在它出現或流行時抓住這種增長。

The next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

Two-part question here. I think quality of life is a big focus area for you and a lot of your peers. What does that mean exactly in terms of kind of what you're negotiating and what your prospective employees are looking for, how do we think about that in terms of our costs, et cetera.

這裡有兩部分問題。我認為生活質量是您和您的許多同齡人關注的重點領域。就您正在談判的內容以及您的潛在員工正在尋找什麼而言，這到底意味著什麼，我們如何根據成本等考慮這一點。

And just also, I don't think you've said the word 55 OR on this call so far. Obviously, that seems like a fair way away, given where we are macro-wise. What is the path to get there? Kind of given the quality of life, given the kind of EV inflation, everything else kind of -- is that just going to need like a really big lift from the top line to build that gap in the coming years?

而且，我認為到目前為止您還沒有在這次電話會議上說過“55 OR”這個詞。顯然，考慮到我們在宏觀方面的處境，這似乎是一個公平的方式。到達那裡的路徑是什麼？某種程度上考慮到生活質量，考慮到電動汽車通貨膨脹的類型，以及其他一切 - 是否只需要從頂線大幅提升才能在未來幾年建立這種差距？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Ravi. So I'll start with just a quick comment on quality of life. And then maybe, Eric, you can follow up on what we're negotiating there. And then Jennifer, you can handle a 55 OR. So one thing that came out of the PEB and is in the tentative agreements that were signed and now agreed to was directive to negotiate things like unscheduled work going to scheduled work. There are other things bundled into the quality of life issues for our craft employees, but that's a big one.

是的。謝謝你的問題，拉維。因此，我將從對生活質量的快速評論開始。然後，埃里克，你可以跟進我們在那裡談判的內容。然後詹妮弗，你可以處理 55 OR。因此，從 PEB 中得出的一件事是，在已簽署且現在同意的暫定協議中，有一項指令是協商諸如計劃外工作轉為計劃工作之類的事情。對於我們的手工藝員工來說，生活質量問題中還有其他因素，但這是一個大問題。

There's a fair amount of our craft employees that are on call in an unscheduled job. And that's the way that the staffing for the railroad is handled. And so we're actively in those discussions because there is a path forward to be able to create more predictability in that work for those craft professions.

我們有相當多的手藝員工在臨時工作中隨叫隨到。這就是處理鐵路人員配置的方式。因此，我們正在積極參與這些討論，因為有一條前進的道路可以為那些工藝專業的工作創造更多的可預測性。

I'll let Eric kind of get into the detail.

我會讓 Eric 詳細介紹一下。

Yes. So Ravi, as 1 example. We're engaged right now in a pilot where we're focused on some adjustments to the way that we collectively do the work where we actually have a group of people in the state of Kansas that are working a defined schedule. So to Lance's point, today, the vast majority of our employee base is on an on-call basis. So that's on the TE and Y side of the transportation side.

是的。舉個例子，拉維。我們現在正在進行一項試點，我們專注於對我們集體開展工作的方式進行一些調整，我們實際上在堪薩斯州有一群人正在按照既定的時間表進行工作。因此，就 Lance 的觀點而言，今天，我們的絕大多數員工都是隨叫隨到的。所以這是在運輸方面的 TE 和 Y 方面。

In this pilot, we've carved out a handful of people where they actually are in a specific schedule. And what we're watching for is to ensure that the actual days that we have planned for them to have off occur and that that's translating then to more availability on the days in which they're scheduled to work. That's the win-win solution that we're looking for, and we're focused on. And we're working on it for the entire period of this year. And I bet it carries into the next year because we're putting so much thought into making sure that the net impact is beneficial for both sides.

在這個試點項目中，我們挑選了一些人，他們實際上在特定的時間表中。我們正在關注的是確保我們計劃讓他們休假的實際日期發生，然後轉化為他們計劃工作的日子有更多的可用性。這是我們正在尋找的雙贏解決方案，也是我們關注的焦點。我們今年一整年都在為此努力。我敢打賭它會延續到明年，因為我們正在考慮確保淨影響對雙方都有利。

Yes. And then Ravi, to your 55 questions, I mean you've heard us talk that, that is still our goal, and I'll reiterate that again. We have not put a new time line on that because of all the things that you've heard us talk about here today in terms of the challenges that we're facing. But that doesn't mean we can't improve. That doesn't mean we don't have a path to improve and a path to get there.

是的。然後是拉維，關於你的 55 個問題，我的意思是你已經聽我們說過，這仍然是我們的目標，我會再次重申。我們沒有為此制定新的時間表，因為您今天在這裡聽到的所有事情都與我們面臨的挑戰有關。但這並不意味著我們無法改進。這並不意味著我們沒有改進的途徑和實現目標的途徑。

And relative to the quality of life, it really goes back to what you've heard from both Lance and Eric, as we improve crew availability, as we improve predictability, that improves our service product and it improves our ability to grow. And with that service product comes further pricing opportunities as well. So it's a virtuous circle in my view, and that's how we're going about pursuing those things.

相對於生活質量，這真的可以追溯到你從蘭斯和埃里克那裡聽到的，因為我們提高了船員的可用性，因為我們提高了可預測性，從而改善了我們的服務產品並提高了我們的成長能力。伴隨該服務產品而來的還有進一步的定價機會。所以在我看來這是一個良性循環，這就是我們追求這些目標的方式。

The next question is from the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe I wanted to come back to head count and resources as we're thinking about sort of improving the network and efficiency and ultimately getting back up to sort of optimal performance. Can you give us a sense of sort of how long you think it will take until you get heads to sort of where you think (inaudible) that you have and maybe -- is that a first half, second half kind of dynamic as you think about the relative growth in both periods?

也許我想回到人數和資源的問題上，因為我們正在考慮改進網絡和效率，並最終恢復到最佳性能。你能告訴我們你認為需要多長時間才能讓你的頭腦達到你認為（聽不清）你擁有的地方，也許 - 是你認為的上半場，下半場那種動態關於兩個時期的相對增長？

Yes. Chris, you broke up a little bit at the end. But what I heard you asking is about we're adding headcount and resources to support network fluidity, particularly in some part of the network where we're tight on crews. And how long is that going to take? Is it a first half, second half? So we're not putting a fine button on when exactly we declare victory. What I will say is you look at how we're performing coming into 2023 and the network is fluid.

是的。克里斯，你最後分手了一點。但我聽到你問的是我們正在增加員工人數和資源以支持網絡流動性，特別是在我們人員緊張的網絡的某些部分。這需要多長時間？是上半場還是下半場？所以我們並沒有在我們宣布勝利的確切時間上設置一個精細的按鈕。我要說的是，你看看我們在 2023 年的表現，網絡是流暢的。

We've still got tight spots in the network that are limiting our ability to grow and ship all the demand like in coal, maybe to a lesser extent in [rock]. And we're hiring actively in those areas that would support the network for that growth. The pipeline is full. We've got 600 people in the pipeline, and we're graduating something like 150 to 200 a month at this point.

我們在網絡中仍然有一些緊張的地方限制了我們發展和運送所有需求的能力，比如煤炭，也許在 [岩石] 中的影響較小。我們正在那些支持網絡增長的領域積極招聘。管道已滿。我們有 600 人在籌備中，目前我們每個月要畢業 150 到 200 人。

So it's kind of fundamentally being pretty well healed is happening this year. It's just hard to say exactly when given that demand could shift around. We're still not meeting all demand. And the game plan is operate a fluid network like we are right now, continue to add resources to support the demand that wants to ship and grow that volume as we're able to.

因此，從根本上說，今年正在發生很好的癒合。鑑於需求可能會轉變，很難準確說出何時。我們仍然不能滿足所有需求。遊戲計劃是像我們現在這樣運營一個流動的網絡，繼續增加資源來支持想要發貨的需求，並儘可能地增加數量。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter, Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Just Jen, maybe can you put a range on the OR improvement? I know you said just you're looking for improvement. Given the background issues that you talked about, can you clarify how much of that is impacted by service? And I guess you typically see 200 basis points of deterioration from fourth quarter to first quarter. Is there anything unseasonable or different this year? You pointed out a couple of things that should look different.

Just Jen，也許你能為 OR 改進設定一個範圍？我知道你說過你只是在尋求改進。鑑於您談到的背景問題，您能否澄清其中有多少受到服務的影響？我猜你通常會看到從第四季度到第一季度惡化 200 個基點。今年有什麼不合時宜或不同的地方嗎？你指出了一些看起來應該不同的東西。

And then a second one just for Lance, something totally different. Any thoughts on the STB Open Access mandate? Anything that you expect out of that or remediation expectations from CP-K issue?

然後是蘭斯的第二個，完全不同的東西。關於 STB 開放訪問授權的任何想法？您對此有什麼期望或對 CP-K 問題的補救期望？

So Ken, I'm going to refrain from giving the order of magnitude on the OR guide or giving you a range. It really is just too soon in the year. We're sitting here on January 24 to give that to you. I could try, but I'm sure I'd be wrong. So we're going to resist that temptation. I think the important thing to think about is we are going to work to improve as fast as we can, as hard as we can. You've seen us do that and demonstrate that. We're not trying to meter any progress. Our goal is to deliver that better service, be more fluid. And with that, leverage more volumes across the top line.

所以 Ken，我將避免在 OR 指南上給出數量級或給你一個範圍。今年真的太早了。我們將在 1 月 24 日坐在這里為您提供。我可以嘗試，但我確定我會錯的。所以我們要抵制這種誘惑。我認為要考慮的重要事情是我們將盡可能快地努力改進。您已經看到我們這樣做並證明了這一點。我們不打算衡量任何進展。我們的目標是提供更好的服務，更流暢。這樣一來，就可以利用更多的收入。

There are some other things that influence it, obviously, when you think about fuel and inflation. But the team knows what those are, and they know how to go about it. I'm also not going to give you any guidance relative to sequential and whether we're going to have normal sequential patterns. We had a really hard hit here the end of 2022 with the weather, the way it impacted our volumes here at the close of the quarter. We've had some weather here again here in the start of the year. So hang with us, watch the volumes, watch the service metrics. Those are your best barometer to know how we're operating and how we're generating positive growth and positive financials across the network.

顯然，當您考慮燃料和通貨膨脹時，還有其他一些因素會影響它。但是團隊知道那些是什麼，他們知道如何去做。我也不打算就順序以及我們是否要有正常的順序模式提供任何指導。到 2022 年底，天氣給我們帶來了沉重打擊，它在本季度末影響了我們的銷量。今年年初，我們這裡又遇到了一些天氣。所以和我們在一起，觀察數量，觀察服務指標。這些是您了解我們如何運營以及我們如何在整個網絡中產生積極增長和積極財務狀況的最佳晴雨表。

Yes. Amen. It really does all start with our service product. In terms of the STB and open access, Ken, so that's a pending decision on their part. Clearly, we've fed back for quite some time now to the STB that we think open access is a bad idea from the following perspective. It puts interchange where investment has not occurred. It would negatively impact the service product for those demanding open access and anyone else riding the trains and the service product that those particular customers are using.

是的。阿門。這真的是從我們的服務產品開始的。就機頂盒和開放訪問而言，Ken，這是他們的未決決定。顯然，我們已經向 STB 反饋了很長一段時間，我們認為從以下角度來看開放訪問不是一個好主意。它將交換置於未發生投資的地方。這會對那些要求開放訪問的人和任何其他乘坐火車的人以及這些特定客戶正在使用的服務產品產生負面影響。

We've looked at this a lot of ways. We don't say hell no. When allowing access in a certain circumstance makes sense, we've done it. We've negotiated it. We've done it in short periods to help customer out. But in the broader context of allowing customers to determine where their interchange point should be, we think, as currently conceived, it's -- it would be bad for overall service product, not better.

我們已經研究了很多方法。我們不會說不。如果在特定情況下允許訪問是有意義的，我們已經做到了。我們已經協商過了。我們已經在短時間內完成了幫助客戶的工作。但在更廣泛的背景下，允許客戶確定他們的交換點應該在哪裡，我們認為，按照目前的設想，這對整體服務產品不利，而不是更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So a couple of different follow-ups, if you don't mind. One, just on mix for Jennifer. It sounds like the trends impacting the fourth quarter probably will continue for 2023. I just didn't hear if you confirm that or not?

如果你不介意的話，那麼有幾個不同的後續行動。一，只是為珍妮弗混音。聽起來影響第四季度的趨勢可能會持續到 2023 年。我只是沒聽說你是否證實了這一點？

And then for Eric, you're talking about getting to a better spot with headcount. Do you expect any attrition from when all the backpay clears as maybe some of the more senior folks take that retire or look for something else as that comes up in the next couple of weeks.

然後對於埃里克，你說的是在員工人數方面達到一個更好的位置。當所有欠薪清算時，您是否預計會出現任何減員，因為可能一些更資深的人會退休或尋找其他東西，因為這會在接下來的幾週內出現。

And lastly, Lance, another hot button topic for STB embargoes, a little hard for us to tell exactly the implications of the 2-day hearing from last month, but would be great to hear your thoughts on what changes, if anything, after that.

最後，Lance，STB 禁運的另一個熱門話題，我們很難準確地說出上個月為期 2 天的聽證會的影響，但很高興聽到您對此之後發生的變化的想法（如果有的話） .

All right. I'll start with your mix question, Brian. So for 2023, we are expecting to have a negative mix for the year. And really, it's pretty simple when you think about it with increased intermodal shipments with the onboarding of Schneider. And then you heard Kenny talk about tough grain markets and then also some of the question marks and toughness that we're expecting on the industrial product side. Those things add up to negative mix for us in 2023.

好的。我將從你的混合問題開始，布賴恩。因此，對於 2023 年，我們預計全年將出現負面組合。實際上，當您考慮到隨著 Schneider 的加入而增加的多式聯運出貨量時，這非常簡單。然後你聽到肯尼談到艱難的穀物市場，然後是我們在工業產品方面所期待的一些問號和艱難。這些因素在 2023 年加起來對我們不利。

On the attrition side, we have not seen any attrition post the payment of the PEB. We continue to watch that very closely and where necessary, we'll incentivize.

在減員方面，我們沒有看到支付 PEB 後有任何減員。我們將繼續密切關注這一點，並在必要時進行激勵。

Yes. And that -- the last big back pay happened January 13, right?

是的。那——最後一筆大欠薪發生在 1 月 13 日，對吧？

That's correct.

這是正確的。

So it's in hand. And to your point, Brian, if something occurs, we should be seeing that basically right now, it should start. In terms of the STB on embargoes. So yes, we were called in for a 2-day hearing. The reason is that Union Pacific historically in 2022, had used embargoes more so than all of our peers. We use it for a very specific reason, and we use it as a last resort.

所以它在手。就你的觀點而言，布賴恩，如果發生什麼事情，我們現在基本上應該看到，它應該開始了。在STB 方面禁運。所以是的，我們被要求參加為期 2 天的聽證會。原因是，從歷史上看，聯合太平洋公司在 2022 年使用禁運的次數比我們所有的同行都多。我們出於非常具體的原因使用它，我們將它用作最後的手段。

The reason why we use embargoes is either if something has occurred in the network like, call it, winter storm Elliott that really negatively impacted the Great Lakes region. So that we don't get overwhelmed as we're trying to recover from the winter weather, we'll use an embargo in that circumstance to control product flow. That's not to stop growth. It's basically controlled product flow, so the network can get its feedback under it. It's worked wonderfully in that area because you can see in our car velocity and the overall network fluidity, we're operating quite well.

我們使用禁運的原因是，如果網絡中發生了一些事情，比如冬季風暴埃利奧特，它確實對五大湖地區產生了負面影響。為了讓我們在試圖從冬季天氣中恢復過來時不會不知所措，我們將在這種情況下使用禁運來控制產品流量。這並不是要停止增長。它基本上是控制產品流，所以網絡可以在它下面得到它的反饋。它在那個領域非常有效，因為你可以從我們的汽車速度和整體網絡流動性中看到，我們運作得很好。

We'll also use embargoes to control excess inventory in very targeted circumstances as a last resort. We engage the customers, help them understand what we see and what they could do to help control that excess inventory. And then as a last resort, we would use an embargo. The vast majority of them are about protecting the serving yards for our customers. That's where cars end up. And before the last mile delivery to customers, they get inventoried at the serving yard. And if a particular customer has way more inventory in that serving yard than what they can handle or what supports their business, it can crowd out the service product for others.

作為最後的手段，我們還將在非常有針對性的情況下使用禁運來控制庫存過剩。我們與客戶互動，幫助他們了解我們所看到的以及他們可以採取哪些措施來幫助控製過剩庫存。然後作為最後的手段，我們將使用禁運。其中絕大多數是關於為我們的客戶保護服務場。這就是汽車的終點。在最後一英里交付給客戶之前，他們會在服務場進行盤點。而且，如果特定客戶在該服務場的庫存遠遠超過他們可以處理的數量或支持他們業務的數量，它可能會將服務產品擠出給其他人。

So that's the reason we were called in is we use those more so than anyone else. I'm not sure exactly what's going to come out of that hearing. What we heard from our customers and through the STB and in continuing conversation with our customers is they want to know why and how to remedy with a lot more granularity. So we've modified what we communicate to our customers so that they understand that. And our commitment was we're going to pause on the level of embargoes that we've been using so that we can absorb the feedback and make some additional changes in how we approach excess inventory and serving yard excess inventory and engage with customers more effectively on it.

所以這就是我們被召集進來的原因，因為我們比其他任何人都更多地使用它們。我不確定那次聽證會會產生什麼結果。我們從客戶那裡、通過 STB 以及在與客戶的持續對話中了解到，他們想知道為什麼以及如何更詳細地進行補救。因此，我們修改了與客戶溝通的內容，以便他們理解這一點。我們的承諾是，我們將暫停我們一直使用的禁運水平，以便我們可以吸收反饋，並在我們處理過剩庫存和服務堆場過剩庫存的方式上做出一些額外的改變，並更有效地與客戶互動在上面。

Kenny?

肯尼？

All right, Brian, you win the title for getting us all the talk, I'll make this quick. Two things. One, yes, we've had some pretty difficult conversations with customers. But one of the positives that has come out of that is creating tech solutions for them to give them the visibility that Lance was talking about. Whether it's inventory on our line, the release rates number of cars that are in the serving yard. We've shared that -- those tech solutions with them here a couple of weeks ago, and we're working with the customer so that they can integrate that into their supply chain.

好吧，布賴恩，你贏得了我們所有談話的冠軍，我會盡快完成。兩件事情。第一，是的，我們與客戶進行了一些非常困難的對話。但由此產生的積極因素之一是為他們創造技術解決方案，讓他們獲得 Lance 所說的知名度。無論是我們生產線上的庫存，還是服務場內汽車的發布率。幾週前，我們已經與他們分享了這些技術解決方案，我們正在與客戶合作，以便他們可以將其整合到他們的供應鏈中。

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Kaufman with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Jeff Kaufman。

I'll just make this quick because a lot of mine have been answered. Kenny, what do the changes in China with their COVID policy and reopening the economy potentially mean for Union Pacific?

我會盡快完成，因為我的很多問題都得到了回答。肯尼，中國的 COVID 政策變化和重新開放經濟對聯合太平洋可能意味著什麼？

We'll have to see what plays out there. Historically, what we've seen is a little bit of fits and starts. I think what we'll also be looking at is the inventory levels, at least in the near term. It may not have that much of an impact as they start up a little bit later, it may be right in time. So a lot of uncertainty there, definitely some fits and starts. What we really need is the consumer spending and a little bit more demand to be out there more so than the issue in Asia.

我們必須看看那裡發生了什麼。從歷史上看，我們所看到的是有點斷斷續續。我認為我們還將關注的是庫存水平，至少在短期內如此。它可能不會產生太大的影響，因為它們啟動得晚了一點，可能是時候了。那裡有很多不確定性，肯定會時斷時續。我們真正需要的是消費者支出和更多的需求，而不是亞洲的問題。

The next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 的對話。

I wanted to come back to resourcing questions really quickly here. I'll try to keep it on 1 team as opposed to make all you guys kind of go around the table. What is the exact number ahead we're looking to add in 2023? And if we're thinking about adding more crew resources and automotive resources to get a service level that's more resilient, how does that change the dynamic of adding future resources to set growth? I know it won't be one for one, but are we looking at a little bit less leverage here going forward based on the changes you're making to the resourcing model right now.

我想在這裡很快回到資源問題。我會嘗試將其保留在一個團隊中，而不是讓你們所有人圍著桌子轉。我們希望在 2023 年增加的確切數字是多少？如果我們正在考慮增加更多的船員資源和汽車資源以獲得更具彈性的服務水平，這將如何改變增加未來資源以設定增長的動力？我知道這不會是一對一的，但我們是否正在考慮根據您現在對資源模型所做的更改來降低杠桿作用。

Yes, you were breaking up there quite a bit, David. But I think what your basic question was, was how many do we expect to hire in 2023? And do we think about hiring at a different cadence maybe versus volumes going forward? In terms of hiring for the year, I think we've said it would be similar probably to 2022 levels. But that obviously carries with it some attrition assumptions and what we see happen with volumes. And so if we would see a change positive or negative relative to volumes that obviously could impact that, we're just going to make sure that we have the right crews in place to be able to take advantage of the demand that's there for us. We know we're still not meeting at all today.

是的，你在那里分手了很多，大衛。但我認為您的基本問題是，我們預計在 2023 年招聘多少人？我們是否考慮以不同的節奏招聘而不是未來的數量？就今年的招聘而言，我認為我們已經說過可能與 2022 年的水平相似。但這顯然帶有一些損耗假設以及我們看到的數量變化。因此，如果我們看到相對於數量的積極或消極變化顯然會影響到這一點，我們將確保我們擁有合適的工作人員，以便能夠利用對我們的需求。我們知道我們今天仍然沒有見面。

In terms of how we think about hiring, I mean I think you've heard Lance and Eric talk about the fact that we would maybe keep our boards a little bit larger established (inaudible) if we can. And those will be things that can give us I'll say cushion, as you see fluctuations in demand. Again, we expect to be able to leverage that service reliability into more volumes and better pricing and overall better productivity. And so when you think about the bottom line impact of that, we think it should worst case, be neutral, but really be a positive for us in the long term.

就我們對招聘的看法而言，我的意思是我想你已經聽過 Lance 和 Eric 談論過這樣一個事實，即如果可以的話，我們可能會讓我們的董事會規模更大一些（聽不清）。正如您所看到的需求波動一樣，這些將是可以為我們提供緩衝的東西。同樣，我們希望能夠利用該服務的可靠性來實現更多的銷量、更好的定價和更高的整體生產力。因此，當您考慮其底線影響時，我們認為最壞的情況應該是中性的，但從長遠來看確實對我們有利。

Yes, I understand the foundation will be positive in the long term, but I mean, we are adding more resources to do (inaudible) should same amount of volume right now, right?

是的，我知道從長遠來看，基金會將是積極的，但我的意思是，我們正在增加更多的資源來做（聽不清）應該現在的數量相同，對嗎？

Yes. I mean you're seeing that flow through today, I would say. When you've got 600, 700 people in training today, not out actively moving freight, that is the headwind that we have in those numbers today that I would say is already there.

是的。我的意思是你今天看到了這種流動，我會說。當你今天有 600、700 人接受培訓，而不是積極地運送貨物時，這就是我們今天在這些數字中遇到的逆風，我想說已經存在了。

Well, and it's substantial because they're completely unproductive from a moving freight perspective. But we anticipate we need them to both backfill attrition and support growth.

好吧，這很重要，因為從移動貨運的角度來看，它們完全沒有生產力。但我們預計我們需要它們來填補人員流失和支持增長。

Our final question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen and Company.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jason Seidl。

Thank you, operator, the anchorman position. I won't make any (inaudible) references here. I wanted to get back to domestic intermodal, guys. I'm assuming the positive growth outlook is basically the Schneider business and some of the freight that you guys lost last year that's more of a natural rail fit flowing back to the network. But I want to look a little bit longer term, sort of as you look to the competitive marketplace with the trucks, where do you think the visibility needs to be and will RailPulse help you improve that? And then where do you think Trip Plan Compliance needs to be? And what else do you need to do to get that up there?

謝謝接線員，主持人位置。我不會在這裡做任何（聽不清）參考。伙計們，我想回到國內聯運。我假設積極的增長前景基本上是施耐德的業務和你們去年損失的一些運費，這更像是一種自然的鐵路運回網絡。但我想從更長遠的角度來看，就像您著眼於卡車的競爭市場一樣，您認為可見性需要在哪裡，RailPulse 會幫助您改進嗎？然後您認為旅行計劃合規性需要在哪裡？你還需要做什麼才能做到這一點？

Yes. I'll tell you, thanks for that question, Jason. We've been encouraged as the management team with all the investment that we put into the railroad to support growth. And we've talked about those products here a little bit today. We do think that Inland Empire is transformative for us. We do think that the Twin Cities Intermodal facility is transformative for us. We do think that the focus on technology, some of which Lance mentioned a little bit earlier that will help drive our experience.

是的。我會告訴你，謝謝你提出這個問題，Jason。作為管理團隊，我們為支持增長而投入鐵路的所有投資令我們感到鼓舞。我們今天在這裡稍微討論了這些產品。我們確實認為內陸帝國對我們來說是變革性的。我們確實認為雙城聯運設施對我們來說是變革性的。我們確實認為對技術的關注，Lance 之前提到的一些技術將有助於推動我們的體驗。

What ultimately helps our customers reduce their costs with their drivers will have an impact. And then, Jason, everything you just said RailPulse is for our carload business, and we've put a lot of focus on making sure we can do ease of business and know exactly what our customers are asking for.

最終幫助我們的客戶降低司機成本的因素將產生影響。然後，傑森，你剛才所說的一切 RailPulse 都是為了我們的貨運業務，我們已經非常關注確保我們能夠簡化業務並確切了解客戶的要求。

And on the performance side, from the service product, Jason, we've been very consistent over the last handful of years that our intermodal trip plan compliance, starting with an 8 -- like 80%, 85% is where we want to be. But -- or -- and we're also very close to our customers over the last 2 years to continue to make sure that what we're measuring is most reflective of their experience and what's most important to them. So stay tuned because we continue to evolve how we think about customer service in line with the customer's voice.

在性能方面，Jason，從服務產品來看，我們在過去幾年中一直非常一致地遵守我們的多式聯運旅行計劃，從 8 開始——比如 80%，85% 是我們想要的.但是 - 或者 - 在過去的兩年裡，我們也非常接近我們的客戶，以繼續確保我們正在衡量的內容最能反映他們的體驗以及對他們來說最重要的事情。所以請繼續關注，因為我們會根據客戶的聲音不斷改進我們對客戶服務的看法。

And is there -- if you guys get to that 85% or above, is that when it starts inflecting in a normalized demand market in terms of getting more freight on the network?

那裡 - 如果你們達到 85% 或更高，那是什麼時候它開始在網絡上獲得更多貨運方面影響正常的需求市場？

The way to think about that is really when you get to 85%, what we're recognizing as we are an outdoor factory. We are 32,000 miles. We do deal with winter, et cetera, et cetera. There's nobody here that gets to 85% and says we've done our job. But it's a place to strive to get to and then reevaluate even within the challenges of being an outdoor factory with 32,000 miles, hey, what's the next opportunity still?

考慮這一點的方法實際上是當你達到 85% 時，我們認識到我們是一家戶外工廠。我們有 32,000 英里。我們確實處理冬天，等等，等等。這裡沒有人在達到 85% 時說我們已經完成了工作。但這是一個努力到達然後重新評估的地方，即使是作為一個擁有 32,000 英里的戶外工廠的挑戰，嘿，下一個機會是什麼？

At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I'll turn the floor over to Mr. Lance Fritz for closing comments.

至此，我們的問答環節已經結束。我將把發言權交給 Lance Fritz 先生髮表結束評論。

Rob, thank you very much for your help this morning, and thank you all for your questions. We're looking forward to talking with you again in April about our first quarter results. Until then, please take care.

Rob，非常感謝你今天早上的幫助，也感謝大家提出的問題。我們期待在 4 月份再次與您討論我們的第一季度業績。在那之前，請保重。

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We do thank you for your participation.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。我們非常感謝您的參與。