聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to Union Pacific's First Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

您好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在聯合太平洋公司的網站上找到。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President and CEO for Union Pacific. Thank you, Mr. Fritz. You may now begin.

現在我很高興向大家介紹東道主，聯合太平洋公司董事長、總裁兼執行長蘭斯·弗里茨先生。謝謝你，弗里茲先生。你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, and welcome to Union Pacific's first quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，羅布，早安，歡迎參加聯合太平洋公司第一季財報電話會議。今天與我一起在奧馬哈的是行銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker； Eric Gehringer，營運執行副總裁；以及我們的財務長 Jennifer Hamann。

Before we discuss our first quarter results, I want to reflect on Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The people of Ukraine have had their lives turned upside down, and UP family is holding them close in our thoughts and in our hearts. We've leveraged our resources to help with a $500,000 donation from our foundation and by matching 2:1 our employees' gifts to select charities that provide direct aid.

在我們討論第一季業績之前，我想反思一下俄羅斯對烏克蘭的入侵。烏克蘭人民的生活發生了翻天覆地的變化，UP 家族將他們緊緊地銘記在心。我們利用我們的資源，從我們的基金會捐贈了 500,000 美元，並透過將員工的禮物按照 2:1 的比例匹配到提供直接援助的慈善機構。

I also want to recognize the Union Pacific team for more than their generosity. They're a team dedicated to serving our customers. But recently, our service product has not met our customers' expectations.

我也想表彰聯合太平洋團隊的慷慨之舉。他們是一支致力於為客戶服務的團隊。但最近，我們的服務產品並沒有達到顧客的期望。

You will hear from Eric, we have an action plan in place to recover, and it is starting to yield benefits. I'm confident in our long-term ability to grow while providing our customers a reliable service product. As they've proven time and again, no matter the challenge, our employees rise to the occasion.

您會從艾瑞克那裡聽到，我們已經制定了恢復行動計劃，並且已經開始產生效益。我對我們在為客戶提供可靠的服務產品的同時實現長期發展的能力充滿信心。正如他們一次又一次證明的那樣，無論面臨什麼挑戰，我們的員工都會迎難而上。

Turning to our first quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2022 first quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.57 per share. This compares to first quarter 2021 results of $1.3 billion or $2.00 per share. Our first quarter operating ratio of 59.4% improved 70 basis points versus 2021.

轉向我們第一季的業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋公司公佈 2022 年第一季淨利潤為 16 億美元，即每股 2.57 美元。相比之下，2021 年第一季的業績為 13 億美元，即每股 2.00 美元。我們第一季的營運率為 59.4%，比 2021 年提高了 70 個基點。

Business development and a robust demand environment drove 4% volume growth in the quarter, coupled with strong pricing gains and a positive business mix. However, our service challenges are contributing to higher costs in the quarter. That performance is also having a real impact on our customers and their ability to serve their markets. We must improve to realize the volume growth we expect this year and into the future.

業務發展和強勁的需求環境推動本季銷售成長 4%，再加上強勁的定價收益和積極的業務組合。然而，我們的服務挑戰導致本季成本上升。這種表現也對我們的客戶及其服務市場的能力產生了真正的影響。我們必須進行改進，以實現我們今年和未來預期的銷售成長。

So let me turn it over to Kenny first for an update on the business environment.

因此，讓我先將其交給肯尼，以了解商業環境的最新情況。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. First quarter volume was up 4% compared to a year ago. Solid gains in both of our bulk and industrial segments were more than offset by a decline in our premium business group from continued global supply chain disruptions. Freight revenue was up 17%, driven by higher fuel surcharges, strong pricing gains and a positive mix.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早安。第一季銷量較去年同期成長 4%。我們的散貨和工業領域的穩健成長被全球供應鏈持續中斷導致的高端業務部門的下滑所抵消。受燃油附加費上漲、價格強勁上漲和積極組合的推動，貨運收入成長了 17%。

Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups. Starting with bulk, revenue for the quarter was up 21% compared to last year, driven by a 12% increase in volume and an 8% increase in average revenue per car, reflecting higher fuel surcharges and solid core pricing gains. Coal and renewable carloads grew 29% year-over-year, driven by continued favorable natural gas prices and 2 new contract wins that started on January 1.

讓我們仔細看看每個業務組。從散貨開始，本季營收較去年成長 21%，主要得益於銷量成長 12% 和每輛車平均收入成長 8%，反映出燃油附加費上漲和核心定價穩定成長。受持續有利的天然氣價格以及 1 月 1 日開始簽訂的兩份新合約的推動，煤炭和再生能源的載貨量同比增長 29%。

Grain and grain products were up 1% in volume due to the increased biofuels production, partially offset by fewer grain shipments from longer shuttle cycle times. Fertilizer carloads were up 2% year-over-year due to strong agricultural demand. And lastly, increased shipments of import beer and canned goods were the main driver of a 4% increase in food and refrigerated.

由於生物燃料產量增加，穀物和穀物產品的數量增加了 1%，但由於太空梭週期時間較長而導致穀物運輸量減少，部分抵消了這種影響。由於農業需求強勁，化肥車運量較去年同期成長 2%。最後，進口啤酒和罐頭食品出貨量的增加是食品和冷藏品成長 4% 的主要推動力。

Moving on to industrial. Industrial revenue was up 16% for the quarter, driven by an 11% increase in volume. Average revenue per car also improved 5%, primarily driven by higher fuel surcharges and core pricing gains. Energy and specialized shipments were down 6% compared to 2021, driven by fewer petroleum shipments.

轉向工業。在銷量成長 11% 的推動下，本季工業收入成長 16%。每輛車的平均收入也增加了 5%，這主要是由於燃油附加費上漲和核心定價上漲所致。由於石油運輸量減少，能源和特種運輸量與 2021 年相比下降了 6%。

Volume for forest products grew 7% year-over-year, primarily driven by strength in both lumber shipments and paper. Despite rising interest rates, housing starts continue to be strong, coupled with demand of corrugated boxes and scrap paper.

林產品銷量年增 7%，主要是由於木材運輸和紙張的強勁增長。儘管利率上升，新屋開工仍然強勁，加上瓦楞紙箱和廢紙的需求。

Industrial chemicals and plastics shipments were up 14% year-over-year due to the increased demand and a favorable comp from last year's Gulf storm that impacted production. Metals and minerals volumes continued to deliver robust year-over-year growth. Volume was up 25% compared to last year primarily driven by growth in the construction materials, strong steel demand and an increase in frac sand shipments. In addition, we had a favorable comp in our construction market from last year's storm that I mentioned earlier.

由於需求增加以及去年海灣風暴對生產的有利影響，工業化學品和塑膠出貨量年增 14%。金屬和礦物產量持續實現年比強勁成長。與去年相比，銷量成長了 25%，主要是由於建築材料的成長、鋼材需求強勁以及壓裂砂出貨量的增加。此外，正如我之前提到的，去年的風暴為我們的建築市場帶來了有利的競爭。

Turning to Premium. Revenue for the quarter was up 14% on a 3% decrease in volume versus last year. Average revenue per car increased by 17% due to higher fuel surcharge revenue, core pricing gains and a positive mix in traffic. Automotive volume was up 6%, driven by an increase in auto parts as demand recovers.

轉向高級版。本季營收成長 14%，但銷量較去年下降 3%。由於燃油附加費收入增加、核心定價上漲以及交通量的積極組合，每輛車的平均收入增加了 17%。隨著需求復甦，汽車零件銷量增加，帶動汽車銷量成長 6%。

Shipments for finished vehicles were down 3% as a result of ongoing semiconductor shortages. Intermodal volume was down 5%, driven by continued international supply chain disruption. However, domestic volume was up in the quarter, aided by business development wins, tight truck capacity and continued strength in parcel shipments.

由於半導體持續短缺，整車出貨量下降了 3%。由於國際供應鏈持續中斷，多式聯運量下降了 5%。然而，由於業務發展的勝利、卡車運力緊張以及包裹運輸的持續強勁，本季國內貨運量有所增加。

Now moving on to our outlook for the rest of 2022. At a micro level, we will be closely watching our markets to see how rising inflation and the global events in both China and Ukraine will impact our overall volume. But as it stands now, here is how we view the outlook across our business lines.

現在談談我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望。但就目前情況而言，以下是我們對整個業務線前景的看法。

Starting with our bulk commodity, we expect fertilizer to grow due to solid market demand, especially on the export side. For coal, we anticipate continued favorable natural gas prices to extend through the year. But when it comes to how much of that demand we can capture, that will depend on how quickly we recover our service levels.

從我們的大宗商品開始，由於市場需求強勁，尤其是出口方面，我們預期化肥將會成長。對於煤炭而言，我們預計全年天然氣價格將持續有利。但當談到我們能夠捕捉多少需求時，這將取決於我們恢復服務水準的速度。

We are optimistic on growth with grain products from biofuel demand and business development wins. For grain, we have a tough comp to last year as exports were strong. And like coal, although we expect cycle times to improve, it is dependent on our service recovery.

我們對生物燃料需求和業務發展帶來的穀物產品成長持樂觀態度。就糧食而言，由於出口強勁，我們與去年相比面臨嚴峻的考驗。與煤炭一樣，儘管我們預計週期時間會有所改善，但這取決於我們的服務恢復情況。

Moving on to industrial markets. We continue to be encouraged by the strength of the forecast for industrial production. This will positively impact many of our markets, like metals. Customer expansions and business development wins will drive growth in our industrial chemicals and plastics commodity groups. We do not expect to see petroleum shipments return to 2021 levels.

轉向工業市場。我們繼續對工業生產預測的強勁感到鼓舞。這將對我們的許多市場產生積極影響，例如金屬市場。客戶擴張和業務發展的勝利將推動我們的工業化學品和塑膠商品集團的成長。我們預計石油運輸量不會恢復到 2021 年的水準。

And lastly, for premium, we expect domestic intermodal to continue its benefit from inventory restocking, retail sales strength, tight truck supply and our business development wins. International intermodal is more uncertain with possible effects from ongoing supply chain challenges and pandemic shutdowns in China.

最後，對於優質產品，我們預計國內多式聯運將繼續受益於庫存補充、零售銷售強勁、卡車供應緊張以及我們業務發展的勝利。由於中國持續的供應鏈挑戰和疫情停工可能產生的影響，國際多式聯運更加不確定。

For automotive, while we do expect the supply of semiconductor chip to improve throughout 2022, recent events in China and Ukraine may disrupt the supply chain for certain key components. We are keeping an eye on whether this will have an impact on production and stand in close contact with our customers.

對於汽車產業，雖然我們確實預計 2022 年半導體晶片的供應將會改善，但中國和烏克蘭最近發生的事件可能會擾亂某些關鍵零件的供應鏈。我們正在密切關注這是否會對生產產生影響，並與客戶保持密切聯繫。

As I wrap up, I want to share a few insights on how the commercial team is navigating the current service challenges. First, all of our discussions have been centered around what actions we can take to improve service. Eric will provide insights on the levers we're pulling that are in our control. Likewise, the commercial team is asking our customers to help reduce railcar inventory. While those conversations have been difficult, I am encouraged by the high level of engagement and transparency we're having with our customers.

最後，我想分享一些關於商業團隊如何應對當前服務挑戰的見解。首先，我們所有的討論都圍繞著我們可以採取哪些行動來改善服務。埃里克將提供有關我們正在控制的槓桿的見解。同樣，商業團隊要求我們的客戶幫助減少軌道車庫存。雖然這些對話很困難，但我們與客戶的高度參與和透明度讓我感到鼓舞。

With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

這樣，我會將其交給 Eric 來審查我們的營運績效。

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. As I will discuss in greater detail in a few minutes, our service is not to a level that meets expectations, and we acknowledge the impact that deteriorated service levels are having on our customers. We're implementing plans to restore network fluidity and build a safer, more reliable and resilient network.

謝謝你，肯尼，早安。正如我將在幾分鐘內更詳細地討論的那樣，我們的服務沒有達到預期的水平，我們承認服務水準下降對我們的客戶造成的影響。我們正在實施恢復網路流動性並建立更安全、更可靠和更有彈性的網路的計劃。

Safety results have been mixed to start the year as we implement enhancements to our safety programs through partnerships and guidance from our external safety consultant. We remain focused on achieving world-class safety performance. We value the health and the safety of our employees above all and want all employees to return home safely each day.

今年伊始，我們的安全結果好壞參半，因為我們透過合作夥伴關係和外部安全顧問的指導來加強我們的安全計畫。我們仍然致力於實現世界級的安全績效。我們首先重視員工的健康和安全，並希望所有員工每天都能安全回家。

Now let's review our key performance metrics for the quarter, starting on Slide 9. Freight car velocity and the related Trip Plan Compliance measures were lower relative to 2021. Coming into the year, the network was in a more fluid state, seeing improvements in operating metrics and crew availability from reduced COVID infections.

現在，讓我們從投影片9 開始回顧本季的關鍵績效指標。有所改善。

In late February, however, while the network was still fragile, episodic events challenged the team and our service product. This led to both decreased velocity and an increase in freight car inventory, particularly private cars, as resources were added to counteract sluggish service and meet growing customer demands.

然而，在 2 月下旬，雖然網路仍然脆弱，但突發事件對團隊和我們的服務產品提出了挑戰。這導致速度下降和貨運汽車庫存增加，特別是私家車，因為增加了資源來抵消緩慢的服務並滿足不斷增長的客戶需求。

Turning now to Slide 10. Although the overall network performance muted most of our efficiency metrics, we continued to operate a more efficient rail network compared to pre-PSR levels. Locomotive productivity declined 6% compared to first quarter 2021 due to locomotive utilization during the quarter.

現在轉向幻燈片 10。由於本季機車利用率較高，機車生產率較 2021 年第一季下降 6%。

To assist in recovering the network, we also brought additional units online, further impacting our productivity results. First quarter workforce productivity improved 5% to a record 1,056 daily miles per FTE. We continue to hire for growth and normal attrition throughout the network.

為了幫助恢復網絡，我們還使更多設備上線，進一步影響了我們的生產力結果。第一季員工生產力提高了 5%，每 FTE 每日行駛里程達到創紀錄的 1,056 英里。我們繼續在整個網路中招募員工以實現成長和正常流失。

In 2021, we graduated over 250 new transportation employees with almost 400 employees graduated to-date in 2022. We have a strong training pipeline of roughly 500 employees as we work closer towards our goal of onboarding around 1,400 employees this year. We have, however, been challenged across the Northern region at several locations to meet our hiring targets. And we continue to work with our workforce resources partners to increase our hiring pools in those locations.

2021 年，我們有超過 250 名新運輸員工畢業，截至 2022 年，已有近 400 名員工畢業。 我們擁有約 500 名員工的強大培訓管道，正在努力實現今年約 1,400 名員工入職的目標。然而，我們在北部地區的多個地點都面臨著實現招募目標的挑戰。我們將繼續與我們的勞動力資源合作夥伴合作，以增加我們在這些地點的招募人數。

Train length is essentially flat compared to 1 year ago. While continued soft international intermodal volumes present a headwind to train length initiatives, we continue to advance train length for coal and manifest trains, which both grew compared to first quarter 2021. These productivity efforts are key to enabling us to recover the network and deliver a better service product for our customers.

與一年前相比，列車長度基本上持平。儘管國際多式聯運量持續疲軟，對列車長度計畫構成阻力，但我們繼續延長煤炭和艙單列車的列車長度，與2021 年第一季相比，這些列車長度均有所增長。的努力對於我們能夠恢復網路並提供為我們的客戶提供更好的服務產品。

Turning to Slide 11 and a discussion on our path forward. This chart illustrates the current state of operations. Our operating car inventory levels rose over 20% since the beginning of the year, while our 7-day volume levels remained relatively flat week to week. We are at an inflection point and more critical action is needed.

轉向幻燈片 11 並討論我們的前進道路。此圖表說明了當前的營運狀態。自年初以來，我們的營運汽車庫存水準上升了 20% 以上，而 7 天的銷售水準每週都保持相對穩定。我們正處於一個轉捩點，需要採取更關鍵的行動。

Our terminals remain fluid, and our focus on improving over-the-road operations and reducing the number of active trains on the network will ease mainline congestion. To accomplish this, we're taking actions on all fronts by selectively increasing network resources, collaborating with our unions, adjusting transportation plans and working proactively with customers to reduce the private car inventory buildup.

我們的航站樓保持流暢，我們致力於改善公路運營和減少網路上運行的列車數量，這將緩解幹線擁堵。為了實現這一目標，我們正在各方面採取行動，選擇性地增加網路資源，與工會合作，調整運輸計劃，並積極與客戶合作，減少私家車庫存的累積。

The entire team is dedicated to returning the network to a more fluid operating state. Looking beyond some of today's issues, our goal is to build a more resilient and consistent network to meet the growth needs of our customers.

整個團隊致力於使網路恢復到更流暢的運作狀態。超越當今的一些問題，我們的目標是建立一個更具彈性和一致的網絡，以滿足客戶的成長需求。

With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

這樣，我將把它交給珍妮佛來審查我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. Let me start with a look at the first quarter operating ratio and earnings per share on Slide 13. As you heard from Lance, Union Pacific is reporting first quarter earnings per share of $2.57 and a quarterly operating ratio of 59.4%, 70 basis points of improvement.

謝謝，埃里克，早安。首先讓我看一下投影片13 上的第一季營運比率和每股盈餘。 ，比2019 年增長70 個基點。

Comparing year-over-year first quarter results, you'll recall that Winter Storm Uri significantly impacted 2021. So in 2022, we have the positive effect to our operating ratio of 160 basis points and $0.16 to earnings per share. Rising fuel prices throughout the quarter, the lag on our fuel surcharge programs and widening spreads between WTI and highway diesel fuel prices negatively impacted our quarterly ratio by 80 basis points, while adding $0.12 per share.

比較第一季的同比業績，您會記得冬季風暴 Uri 對 2021 年產生了重大影響。整個季度燃油價格不斷上漲、燃油附加費計劃的滯後以及 WTI 和公路柴油價格之間的價差不斷擴大，對我們的季度比率產生了 80 個基點的負面影響，同時每股增加了 0.12 美元。

Core results were a 10 basis point drag to the operating ratio but contributed $0.29 to EPS. These core results are indicative of both operational inefficiencies in the quarter as well as the strong top line growth we delivered.

核心績效拖累了營運比率 10 個基點，但為每股盈餘貢獻了 0.29 美元。這些核心業績顯示了本季營運效率低落以及我們實現的強勁營收成長。

Looking now at our first quarter income statement on Slide 14. Operating revenue totaled $5.9 billion, up 17% versus 2021 on 4% year-over-year volume growth. Operating expense increased 16% to $3.5 billion. Excluding the impact of higher fuel prices, expenses were up 7% in the quarter. First quarter operating income was a record at $2.4 billion, a 19% increase versus last year.

現在看投影片 14 上的第一季損益表。營運費用成長 16%，達到 35 億美元。排除燃油價格上漲的影響，本季費用增加了 7%。第一季營業收入創紀錄地達到 24 億美元，比去年增長 19%。

Adjusted for fuel price, first quarter incremental margins totaled 56%. Expectations for full year incrementals are unchanged in the mid-60s, which is the lower end of our Investor Day guidance. Interest expense increased 6% compared to 2021, reflecting increased debt levels, partially offset by a lower effective interest rate.

經燃油價格調整後，第一季獲利增量總計 56%。全年增量的預期在 60 年代中期保持不變，這是我們投資者日指導的下限。與 2021 年相比，利息支出增加了 6%，反映出債務水準增加，但實際利率下降部分抵消了這一影響。

Income tax increased 18% due to higher pretax income, partially offset by a lower effective tax rate. We now estimate the full year effective tax rate to be around 23.5% as several states have lowered or are expected to lower rates. Net income of $1.6 billion increased 22% versus 2021, which, when combined with share repurchases, resulted in earnings per share up 29% to $2.57.

由於稅前收入增加，所得稅增加了 18%，但有效稅率降低部分抵消了這種影響。我們現在估計全年有效稅率約為 23.5%，因為一些州已經降低或預計會降低稅率。淨利潤為 16 億美元，較 2021 年成長 22%，加上股票回購，每股收益成長 29% 至 2.57 美元。

Looking more closely at first quarter revenue. Slide 15 provides a breakdown of our freight revenue, which totaled $5.4 billion, up 17% versus 2021. Broad-based volume growth, supported by successful business development efforts, as Kenny discussed, contributed 425 basis points. Fuel surcharge revenue of $635 million increased freight revenue 800 basis points as the higher surcharge revenue reflects the significant surge in diesel fuel prices.

更仔細地觀察第一季的收入。幻燈片15 提供了我們貨運收入的明細，貨運收入總計54 億美元，比2021 年增長17%。個基點。燃油附加費收入達 6.35 億美元，使貨運收入增加 800 個基點，因為附加費收入的增加反映了柴油價格的大幅上漲。

The robust demand environment continues to support actions that yield price dollars that exceed inflation dollars. These gains combined with the positive business mix to drive 475 basis points of freight revenue growth. Lower intermodal volume, combined with higher industrial shipments, drove the positive mix.

強勁的需求環境持續支持價格美元超過通膨美元的行動。這些收益與積極的業務組合相結合，推動貨運收入成長 475 個基點。多式聯運量的減少，加上工業運輸量的增加，推動了積極的組合。

Now let's move on to Slide 16, which provides a summary of our first quarter operating expenses. As noted earlier, the primary driver of the increased expense was fuel, up 74% on a 59% increase in fuel prices and 9% higher gross ton-miles. Our fuel consumption rate was relatively flat compared to 2021 as the favorable business mix was offset by negative productivity.

現在讓我們轉到投影片 16，其中概述了我們第一季的營運支出。如前所述，費用增加的主要驅動因素是燃油，由於燃油價格上漲 59%，總噸英里增加 9%，費用增加了 74%。與 2021 年相比，我們的燃料消耗率相對持平，因為有利的業務組合被負生產力所抵消。

Looking further at the expense lines, compensation and benefits expense was up 7% versus 2021. First quarter workforce levels increased 1% as a 2% increase in our train and engine crews were partially offset by flat management, engineering and mechanical workforces. As you heard from Eric, we continue to hire into our transportation craft to support network recovery efforts and prepare for future growth.

進一步觀察費用項目，薪資和福利費用比2021 年成長了7%。勞動力所抵消。正如您從埃里克那裡聽到的那樣，我們將繼續僱用我們的運輸人員來支持網路恢復工作並為未來的成長做好準備。

Cost per employee increased 6% as a result of wage inflation as well as higher recrew, overtime and borrow-out costs related to network inefficiencies, partially offset by last year's weather-related expenses. Given the current operational challenges, we now expect cost per employee to remain elevated into the second quarter.

由於薪資上漲以及與網路效率低下相關的人員、加班和借用成本增加，每位員工的成本增加了 6%，但部分被去年與天氣相關的費用所抵消。鑑於當前的營運挑戰，我們現在預計每位員工的成本在第二季仍將保持在高水準。

Purchased services and material expense is up 14%, driven by inflation, higher volume-related purchase transportation expense associated with our loop subsidiary and cost to maintain a larger active locomotive fleet. Equipment and other rents was up 1%, driven by lower TTX equity income. Other expense increased 5% in the quarter, driven by higher state and local taxes and increased business travel.

受通貨膨脹、與我們的循環子公司相關的與數量相關的採購運輸費用增加以及維護更大的活躍機車車隊的成本的推動，購買的服務和材料費用上漲了 14%。由於 TTX 股權收入下降，設備和其他租金上漲 1%。由於州稅和地方稅上漲以及商務旅行增加，本季其他費用增加了 5%。

Turning to Slide 17 and our cash flows. Cash from operations in the first quarter increased to $2.2 billion from $2 billion in 2021, a 14% increase. Our cash conversion rate was 85%, and free cash flow of $657 million declined $146 million. This includes $312 million of increased cash capital spending and $93 million in higher dividends. The cash capital investment reflects both payments from elevated fourth quarter spending as well as a normalized start to our 2022 program.

轉向幻燈片 17 和我們的現金流。第一季營運現金從 2021 年的 20 億美元增至 22 億美元，成長 14%。我們的現金轉換率為 85%，自由現金流 6.57 億美元減少了 1.46 億美元。其中包括增加 3.12 億美元的現金資本支出和 9,300 萬美元的更高股息。現金資本投資既反映了第四季度支出增加的支付，也反映了我們 2022 年計畫的正常啟動。

In the quarter, we returned $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This includes the $2.2 billion accelerated share repurchase program executed in February. And we finished the first quarter with an adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.8x as we continue to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating.

本季度，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還 35 億美元。這包括 2 月執行的 22 億美元加速股票回購計畫。由於我們持續保持強勁的投資等級信用評級，第一季調整後負債與 EBITDA 比率為 2.8 倍。

Wrapping up on Slide 18, I want to start by recognizing that several things have changed since we provided guidance in January, from fuel prices to our operational performance. As we sit here today, those pressures make achievement of around a 55.5% operating ratio unlikely. However, assuming some stabilization in fuel and recovery in our service product, we'll still look to achieve our long-term goal of an OR that starts with a 55% this year. Importantly, we are affirming our previously provided 2022 targets for volume, price and incremental margins.

在結束投影片 18 時，我首先要認識到，自從我們 1 月提供指導以來，從燃油價格到我們的營運績效，一些事情發生了變化。當我們今天坐在這裡時，這些壓力使得實現 55.5% 左右的營運率不太可能。然而，假設我們的服務產品的燃料和回收率有所穩定，我們仍將尋求實現今年從 55% 開始的 OR 長期目標。重要的是，我們確認先前提出的 2022 年銷售、價格和增量利潤目標。

Our cash and capital plans also are unchanged. Capital spending remains at $3.3 billion for the year, well within our long-term guidance of below 15% of revenue. And we remain committed to an industry-leading dividend payout ratio and share repurchases in line with 2021.

我們的現金和資本計劃也沒有改變。今年資本支出維持在 33 億美元，完全在我們低於收入 15% 的長期指引範圍內。我們仍然致力於實現與 2021 年一致的行業領先的股息支付率和股票回購。

Before I turn it back to Lance, I'd like to express my appreciation to the Union Pacific team. Working in an outdoor factory is always a challenge, but especially so during winter. Our employees, though, are undeterred in their desire to safely serve our customers while delivering another quarter of solid financial results.

在我將其轉回蘭斯之前，我想向聯合太平洋團隊表示感謝。在戶外工廠工作總是一個挑戰，尤其是在冬天。不過，我們的員工並沒有被嚇倒，他們渴望安全地為客戶提供服務，同時再交付一個季度穩健的財務表現。

Thank you. With that, I'll turn it back to Lance.

謝謝。有了這個，我會把它轉回給蘭斯。

And thank you, Jennifer. As Eric mentioned, we've had an uneven start to the year with safety, but we're not deterred. We're in the process of implementing changes to our safety programs as a result of our work with experienced safety consultants. I'm confident these changes will be a catalyst for world-class safety performance.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。正如艾瑞克所提到的，我們今年的安全開局並不順利，但我們並沒有被嚇倒。透過與經驗豐富的安全顧問合作，我們正在對安全計劃進行更改。我相信這些變化將成為世界一流安全性能的催化劑。

As you heard from Kenny, demand remains robust as our customers see growth opportunities in their businesses. However, we recognize that for growth to be sustainable, we need a reliable and resilient service product that our customers can depend on. Our strategy begins with serve, and it is the foundation for achieving long-term success for all stakeholders. Improving our service product has our full and undivided attention.

正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，隨著我們的客戶看到其業務的成長機會，需求仍然強勁。然而，我們認識到，為了實現永續成長，我們需要客戶可以依賴的可靠且有彈性的服務產品。我們的策略始於服務，它是所有利害關係人實現長期成功的基礎。我們全神貫注地改進我們的服務產品。

Current challenges aside, we remain enthusiastic about the opportunities that exist this year to win with all of our stakeholders, and I am confident that 2022 will be a very successful year.

除了當前的挑戰之外，我們仍然對今年存在的與所有利益相關者共贏的機會充滿熱情，我相信 2022 年將是非常成功的一年。

Wrapping up. With tomorrow being Earth Day, it feels appropriate to highlight an action we took during the first quarter to protect our planet and advance our journey to net-zero emissions by 2050.

包起來。明天是世界地球日，我們有必要強調我們在第一季為保護地球並推進到 2050 年實現淨零排放而採取的行動。

In January, we announced plans to purchase 20 battery electric locomotives for use in yard operations, creating the world's largest carrier-owned battery fleet in freight service. These locomotives do not use diesel fuel and emit zero emissions. We anticipate the first units will arrive on site in late 2023 with complete delivery by 2024. With this step, Union Pacific remains a leader on our nation's path to a sustainable future.

一月份，我們宣布計劃購買 20 輛電池電力機車用於堆場作業，以打造全球最大的貨運服務營運商自有電池車隊。這些機車不使用柴油，零排放。我們預計第一批設備將於 2023 年底抵達現場，並於 2024 年完成交付。

So with that, let's open up the line for your questions.

那麼，讓我們開始回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today will be coming from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Just kind of following up on the -- on your outlook. Obviously, it has a lot to do with enhancing hiring to improve the service. Maybe you can talk a little bit about how do you scale that up, Lance, what programs you can do to kind of meet some of these targets?

只要跟進一下您的看法。顯然，這與加強招募以改善服務有很大關係。也許你可以談談如何擴大規模，羅斯，你可以採取哪些計劃來實現其中一些目標？

And I guess, Kenny, the breadth of the letter and constraints on the companies limiting their assets, maybe talk about what -- how that frees up the fluidity of the network as well.

肯尼，我想，這封信的廣度和對限制其資產的公司的限制，也許會談論什麼——如何釋放網路的流動性。

Yes. Thanks for the questions, Ken. So I'll start. In terms of hiring, our hiring pipeline right now is pretty much fully charged at 500. We'll be graduating something over 100 each month. That'll help us get healthy. It's not like we need all 1,400 right now. But I would love to be able to add another couple of hundred into the network where we need them right now. That would really help us move our inventory through the pipeline, get it pushed up against our customers where they would like it. And so we're in the middle of doing that.

是的。謝謝你的提問，肯。那我就開始吧。在招募方面，我們目前的招募管道幾乎已滿，為 500 人。這將幫助我們恢復健康。我們現在並不需要全部 1,400 人。但我希望能夠在我們現在需要的網路中再增加數百個。這確實有助於我們透過管道轉移庫存，將其推向客戶想要的地方。我們正在這樣做。

When Eric mentioned some difficult areas, particularly in the northern tier, call it from west of Chicago all the way through Wyoming and into the Pacific Northwest, we're trying a couple of unique things there. One of the things that's showing really great promise is something called second-chance hiring. It's where we take cadres of individuals who have made bad life decisions but are really no longer a threat to society or themselves. And we work with a partner in the community to vet them and then take the best from that group and bring them on board.

當艾瑞克提到一些困難地區時，特別是在北部地區，即從芝加哥西部一直穿過懷俄明州並進入太平洋西北地區，我們正在那裡嘗試一些獨特的事情。真正顯示出巨大前景的事情之一就是所謂的「第二次招募機會」。我們在這裡把那些做出了錯誤的人生決定但實際上不再對社會或他們自己構成威脅的人選為幹部。我們與社區中的合作夥伴合作對他們進行審查，然後從該群體中汲取最好的人才並讓他們加入。

We've already gone through our first hiring class who are in the middle of training down in Houston, and we've expanded that second-chance hiring program now to Chicago, L.A., North Platte. And it looks like it has great promise in those communities as well. So there's a number of things we're doing, both to make our jobs more attractive, to find bigger pools of talent and to develop talent so that it's ready to be in the railroad. And at the same time, we've reduced our training program, from a time frame perspective, not a content perspective, down to about 14 weeks, maybe 17 if we have a little bit more training to do in particular areas. So we're doing everything we can to get the pipeline charged and get them out. Kenny?

我們已經完成了第一期招募課程，他們正在休士頓接受培訓，現在我們已將第二次機會招募計畫擴展到芝加哥、洛杉磯、北普拉特。看起來它在這些社區也有很大的前景。因此，我們正在做很多事情，一方面是為了讓我們的工作更具吸引力，另一方面是為了尋找更大的人才庫並培養人才，以便為進入鐵路行業做好準備。同時，我們從時間框架而非內容角度將培訓計畫縮短至約 14 週，如果我們在特定領域需要進行更多培訓的話，可能會縮短至 17 週。因此，我們正在盡一切努力為管道充電並將其運出。肯尼？

Yes. Ken, we sent out a letter to all of our customers. And so that gave us commercially an opportunity to have a conversation with all of our customers and make them aware of what we're trying to accomplish. I want to thank our commercial team and thank the customers for having those engaging conversations. We worked with Eric's team to ensure we had really good data-driven conversations with the customers that could give us the best opportunity to reduce the railcar inventory. And so we've done that. Trust me, there have been some difficult conversations. But I'll tell you, I've been very encouraged with the initial response from our customers and their willingness to reduce their railcar inventory. So we'll continue to have those discussions. We'll continue to engage them and be transparent and utilize data.

是的。肯，我們向所有客戶發出了一封信。因此，這為我們提供了商業上與所有客戶進行對話並讓他們了解我們正在努力實現的目標的機會。我要感謝我們的商業團隊，並感謝客戶進行這些有趣的對話。我們與艾瑞克的團隊合作，確保我們與客戶進行真正良好的數據驅動對話，這可以為我們提供減少軌道車庫存的最佳機會。所以我們已經做到了。相信我，有一些困難的談話。但我要告訴你的是，我們客戶的初步反應以及他們減少軌道車庫存的意願讓我深受鼓舞。所以我們將繼續進行這些討論。我們將繼續與他們合作，保持透明並利用數據。

Our next question comes from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jon Chappell 和 Evercore 的對話。

Eric, we've kind have been hit over the head with labor, labor, labor. It's the biggest issue. And when we look at the amount of people you're looking to add relative to the size of your workforce, it's really not that large. So what are some of the other capacity constraints that are on the network right now? It feels like you exited 1Q maybe in a bit of a worse situation than you entered 1Q. And how quickly can you remedy those nonlabor issues to kind of help complement the additional headcount and can get you out of the situation a lot quickly -- a lot quicker?

艾瑞克，我們已經被勞力、勞力、勞力擊中了。這是最大的問題。當我們考慮您想要增加的人員數量相對於您的勞動力規模時，它實際上並沒有那麼大。那麼目前網路上還有哪些容量限制呢？感覺你退出第一季的情況可能比進入第一季時的情況更糟。您能多快解決這些非勞動力問題，以幫助補充額外的員工人數，並讓您更快地擺脫困境？

Yes. Jon, thank you for the question. And to your point, right now, we have 1,400 people planned for hiring this year. We're on pace to do that. And we feel like, based on how we forecast, not only the volume we have now, but also the growth that, that's exactly how many we need to hire. Now when you think about recovering the system, I mean, that's bullet #1. You've got to charge the pipeline. And as Lance said, we've done that. I go then beyond that, and I focus on the crews that we have today and are we being judicious with the use of those crews? You heard Jennifer state, we have opportunities in things like recrew and overtime. Those are at the forefront of our efforts right now.

是的。喬恩，謝謝你的提問。就您而言，目前我們計劃今年招募 1,400 名員工。我們正在努力做到這一點。我們覺得，根據我們的預測，不僅是我們現在擁有的數量，而且還有我們需要雇用的人數的增加。現在，當您考慮恢復系統時，我的意思是，這是第一點。你必須給管道充電。正如蘭斯所說，我們已經做到了。然後我超越了這一點，我關注我們今天擁有的工作人員，我們對這些工作人員的使用是否明智？你聽到詹妮弗說，我們在劇組和加班等方面有機會。這些都是我們目前努力的首要任務。

Third, I'd go down to locomotives. As you look at the locomotive fleet in the Union Pacific right now, we have the appropriate amount of locomotives on the system. We have opportunities to use them more productively, but they're the right number of locomotives. Then I go down to the transportation plan changes that we've made. Those changes have been very specific and targeted towards eliminating the excess inventory off of the system.

第三，我會去了解機車。當您查看聯合太平洋公司現在的機車車隊時，我們系統上有適當數量的機車。我們有機會更有效地使用它們，但它們的機車數量是正確的。然後我會詳細介紹我們對交通計畫所做的更改。這些變化非常具體，旨在消除系統中的過剩庫存。

And then finally, we closed out with where Kenny started, working with our customers in partnership with them to reduce private car inventory. The faster we do all 5 of those, Jon, some of which are already have been done, the faster we recover the system, and that's what everyone is focused on right now.

最後，我們以肯尼開始的方式結束，與我們的客戶合作，減少私家車庫存。喬恩，我們完成這 5 項工作的速度越快，其中一些已經完成，我們恢復系統的速度就越快，這就是每個人現在關注的重點。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的布蘭登·奧格倫斯基。

Lance or Eric, I guess, can you talk to the fluidity situation in L.A., Long Beach? And has that improved in any drastic way?

我想蘭斯或艾瑞克，你能談談洛杉磯長灘的流動性嗎？這有什麼顯著的改善嗎？

Let me get started, and then I'll ask Eric to add a little detail. We are encouraging our international ocean shipping partners to put more of their international boxes on our railroad to ship inland. As Kenny mentioned, that ratio is still lower than it's been historically. And they're all working towards adding more of that back into our network. But we're -- we stand ready. The boxes that are pointed at us on dock are not dwelling in an excessive amount of time, and we'd love to have more of those come on to the railroad.

讓我開始吧，然後我會請艾瑞克添加一些細節。我們鼓勵我們的國際海運合作夥伴將更多的國際貨櫃放在我們的鐵路上運送到內陸。正如肯尼所提到的，這一比率仍然低於歷史水平。他們都在努力將更多的內容重新添加到我們的網路中。但我們——我們已做好準備。碼頭上指向我們的箱子不會停留太久，我們希望有更多的箱子進入鐵路。

And Brandon, when we look at that at a specific terminal perspective, Lance is exactly right. We not only have dwell right where we need it to be. It's a solid performance, especially relative to last year, but we also have excess capacity in those terminals. So as we continue to get more volume, we can handle that.

布蘭登，當我們從特定的終端角度來看時，蘭斯是完全正確的。我們不僅可以住在我們需要的地方。這是一個穩健的表現，特別是相對於去年而言，但我們這些碼頭的運能也過剩。因此，隨著我們繼續獲得更多的銷量，我們可以處理這個問題。

Now we still want to be ready for that. So we have continued to put excess resources and an at-the-ready status. So they're not active, but they're available in the L.A. Basin. So as those surges comes, we can handle them efficiently.

現在我們仍然想為此做好準備。所以我們繼續投入多餘的資源並且處於就緒狀態。所以它們並不活躍，但它們在洛杉磯盆地可用。因此，當這些激增到來時，我們可以有效地應對它們。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的湯姆‧瓦德維茲 (Tom Wadewitz)。

I guess, I want to try to understand a little bit what happened. It seemed like, Lance, you -- even going back to the May Analyst Meeting last year, you talked about growth. And you really, I think, executed well against that strategy. But it seems like now you're almost -- I don't want to say you're surprised by the growth, but there obviously have been difficulty handling it. So is there like a surprise on the attrition side?

我想，我想嘗試了解發生了什麼事。蘭斯，你似乎——甚至回到去年五月的分析師會議上，你都談到了成長。我認為，你確實在該策略上執行得很好。但看起來現在你幾乎——我不想說你對這種增長感到驚訝，但顯然處理它很困難。那麼，在人員流失方面有什麼驚喜嗎？

I know railroading's an outdoor sport. So sometimes you get a setback and it takes a while to recover. But I just -- and then also, I feel like your commentary on labor not that long ago was that you had enough labor. So I guess, I just wanted to -- I guess, trying to see what might have happened. And then how much of that is ongoing, in particular, with attrition? Is that the issue? Is that ongoing?

我知道鐵路是一項戶外運動。所以有時候你會遇到挫折，需要一段時間才能恢復。但我只是 - 然後我覺得不久前你對勞動力的評論是你有足夠的勞動力。所以我想，我只是想——我想，嘗試看看可能會發生什麼。那麼其中有多少是持續進行的，特別是在人員流失方面？這是問題所在嗎？這是持續進行的嗎？

That's a great question, Tom. And let me unpack that for you, let's say, starting in the back half of last year coming into this year. We talked about, in the back half of last year, really struggling with crew availability, which was mostly, we thought, COVID-related. We just had not really done a great job in anticipating what COVID would do to crew availability. And we kept kind of struggling with having 300, 400, 500, 800 TE&Y unavailable to us at any given time.

這是一個很好的問題，湯姆。讓我為您解開這個問題，比方說，從去年下半年開始到今年。去年下半年，我們談到了船員可用性的問題，我們認為這主要與新冠病毒有關。我們只是沒有很好地預測新冠疫情對船員可用性的影響。我們一直在為在任何給定時間都無法使用 300、400、500、800 TE&Y 而苦苦掙扎。

But we thought that our hiring pipeline had been charged up to a point where, as we were entering 2022, we'd be able to handle the volumes. And that looked like that was proving out to be the case. When we spoke to y'all in January, our operating metrics were improving. We were coming out of the holiday, and we actually felt pretty good about where we were.

但我們認為，隨著我們進入 2022 年，我們的招募管道已經達到了能夠處理這一數量的程度。事實證明確實如此。當我們一月份與大家交談時，我們的營運指標正在改善。我們剛結束假期，實際上我們對自己所處的位置感覺很好。

Now we knew we were fragile, but we thought we could navigate as we brought crews on board. What happened is we were more fragile, I think, than we give ourselves credit for. So in the back half of February, we started getting some body blows from what normally happens in winter. Usually, we have enough excess resources to be able to bring them to bear and clean out of it. This time around, we didn't. And as a result, we started getting behind.

現在我們知道自己很脆弱，但我們認為只要帶上船員就可以航行。我認為，發生的事情是我們比想像的更脆弱。因此，在二月下半月，我們的身體開始受到冬季通常發生的情況的打擊。通常，我們有足夠的多餘資源來承受並清除它們。這一次，我們沒有。結果，我們開始落後。

Inventory built up, and it's for the exact reasons that make all the sense in the world. As customers see us slow down, they put in more freight car inventory so that they get their needs satisfied. And that then turns into kind of a self-reinforcing negative cycle. And that's where we are right now.

庫存不斷增加，正是出於確切的原因才有意義。當客戶看到我們放慢速度時，他們就會投入更多的貨車庫存，以滿足他們的需求。然後這就會變成一種自我強化的負循環。這就是我們現在的處境。

So right now, we're in a place where we've got more train and car inventory on us than we should have, given the volumes, and we've got to work that off. And what Eric was talking about is making sure that we use our crews wisely, our power wisely, and our T Plan is oriented towards doing that.

所以現在，我們的火車和汽車庫存量超出了我們應有的數量，我們必須解決這個問題。艾瑞克所說的是確保我們明智地使用我們的人員，明智地使用我們的權力，我們的 T 計劃就是為了做到這一點。

So that's exactly where we are. And it's going to take us awhile to work out of it. We're going to work out of it through the second quarter and into the third quarter. And my anticipation is we'd see incremental improvement week after week after week as we're doing that. Eric, is there anything you want to add to that?

這正是我們現在的處境。我們需要一段時間才能解決這個問題。我們將在第二季和第三季解決這個問題。我的預期是，當我們這樣做時，我們會一週又一週看到漸進的改善。艾瑞克，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

I think you've covered it exactly right, where we'd be most focused on those leading indicators of terminal dwell, car velocity, train velocity and operating inventory. And that's what we report publicly, so that everybody can continue to see that progress that we'll be making week after week.

我認為你說得完全正確，我們最關注的是航站樓停留時間、汽車速度、火車速度和營運庫存的領先指標。這就是我們公開報告的內容，以便每個人都可以繼續看到我們一周又一周的進展。

Is there a time frame for when it will be kind of fixed in your view? I guess, that's third quarter, you're saying?

您認為有一個固定的時間範圍嗎？我想，那是第三季度，你是說？

No, we haven't guided to a specific time line. I would reinforce the fact that, as we see the hiring pipeline, we're getting about 100 crews every single month. Those 100 crews are incredibly important to the recovery, but so are the other 4 things that I listed. So what you should know is, right now, everyone is focused on that, and they're focused on how do we do it as quickly as possible.

不，我們還沒有指導具體的時間線。我想強調一個事實，正如我們看到的招募管道，我們每個月都會招募大約 100 名工作人員。這 100 名工作人員對於復原工作非常重要，但我列出的其他 4 件事也同樣重要。所以你應該知道的是，現在每個人都在關注這一點，他們關注的是我們如何盡快做到這一點。

Yes. Tom, I would point you back to the KPIs that Eric mentioned. You'll see the recovery happen. You'll see it in car velocity that we publish every week. You'll see it in terminal dwell that we publish every week. And you'll see it in overall inventory.

是的。湯姆，我想請您回顧一下艾瑞克提到的 KPI。你會看到恢復發生。您會在我們每週發布的汽車速度中看到它。您將在我們每週發布的終端停留中看到它。您會在整體庫存中看到它。

Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自賈斯汀·朗和史蒂芬斯。

I wanted to ask about the OR guidance. Obviously, there's a lot going on in the network operationally. But if I go back to prior pandemic levels, seasonally, you saw about 200 basis points of OR improvement sequentially in the second quarter. But when we think about your full year guidance, would it be fair to say that it assumes a similar level of seasonality in the second quarter with the progression to the mid-50s in the back half of the year? Just curious if you can help us think through that quarterly OR cadence assumed in the guidance.

我想問手術室指導。顯然，網路運作中發生了很多事情。但如果我回到之前的大流行水平，按季節計算，您會看到第二季度 OR 環比改善了約 200 個基點。但是，當我們考慮您的全年指導時，是否可以公平地說，它假設第二季度的季節性水平與下半年相似，並在下半年增長到 50 年代中期？只是好奇您是否可以幫助我們思考指南中假設的季度或節奏。

Yes. Thanks, Justin, for that question. I believe you are thinking about it correctly. It really is going to be -- we've got to make improvements sequentially in the second quarter and then really leverage that back half as we see stronger volume growth and have greater operational fluidity to be able to hit those targets.

是的。謝謝賈斯汀提出這個問題。我相信你的想法是對的。這確實是——我們必須在第二季度依次做出改進，然後真正利用後半部分，因為我們看到更強勁的銷售成長和更大的營運流動性，以便能夠實現這些目標。

Obviously, fuel, we're assuming some moderation there, but that's really the operational performance. And the leverage to that volume growth that we know is there, the robust demand that Kenny talked about, I think that's very important. Now I also have to acknowledge that second quarter of last year was our best quarter ever as a company. And so that's going to be a very tough comparison for us. And in fact, I would be remiss to say that we think we're going to see improvement in the second quarter but sequentially -- on a year-over-year basis. But sequentially, we should improve, and that will lead to greater improvement in the back half.

顯然，燃料方面，我們假設有一定程度的調節，但這確實是營運績效。我們知道，對銷售成長的槓桿作用是存在的，肯尼談到的強勁需求，我認為這非常重要。現在我還必須承認，去年第二季是我們公司有史以來最好的季度。所以這對我們來說將是一個非常艱難的比較。事實上，如果我說我們認為我們將在第二季度看到連續性的改善（同比），那我就太失職了。但接下來我們應該會有所進步，這將導致後半場有更大的進步。

And support the guidance that you gave overall, which is a 55.X for the year.

並支持您給予的整體指導，即今年的 55.X。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

And volumes for the second quarter, do you think they'll be up on a year-over-year basis?

您認為第二季的銷售量會年增嗎？

That's really going to depend on the pace of the recovery. And -- but I do think -- when we talked about volumes for the year, again, I thought first half was going to be driven by the bulk and industrial, and the second half was going to be driven by more of that intermodal recovery and automotive recovery.

這實際上取決於復甦的速度。而且——但我確實認為——當我們再次談論今年的銷售時，我認為上半年將由散貨和工業產品推動，而下半年將更多地由多式聯運復甦推動和汽車復甦。

While I think that's still largely the case, and you heard Kenny talk about the fact that there are some, I'll say, a little bit of headwinds or potential headwinds in terms of the international intermodal and the automotive recovery with what's happened in Ukraine and China, but you also have stronger natural gas prices into the back half of the year. So that's going to support that coal growth. So I still think you have that dynamic of a stronger second half overall in volume than you do in the first half. And in terms of Q2, we just need to really get the network fluid and try to move as much demand as is there.

雖然我認為情況仍然如此，而且你聽到肯尼談到這樣一個事實，即在國際多式聯運和烏克蘭發生的汽車復甦方面存在一些，我會說，一些逆風或潛在的逆風和中國，但今年下半年天然氣價格也會走強。因此，這將支持煤炭成長。因此，我仍然認為下半年整體成交量比上半年更強。就第二季而言，我們只需要真正讓網路變得流暢，並嘗試滿足盡可能多的需求。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究斯科特集團。

Jennifer, pricing and mix decelerated a decent amount from Q4. Any thoughts? Is that price? Or is that mix? And any thoughts on how to forecast that?

Jennifer，定價和產品組合較第四季大幅下降。有什麼想法嗎？是這個價格嗎？或者說是混合的？關於如何預測有什麼想法嗎？

And then just on the operating ratio. I know you're raising it, worsening it, whatever, by 40 basis points, but I got to think that fuel is more than a 40 basis point headwind to what you thought at the beginning of the year. So is it -- I know we've got service issues we're talking about, but it almost feels like underlying guidance on margin ex fuel or underlying earnings guidance is actually going to be better than what you thought previously. Am I thinking about that right?

然後就是營運比率。我知道你正在提高利率，惡化利率，無論如何，提高 40 個基點，但我必須認為，與你年初的想法相比，燃油價格的逆風超過 40 個基點。也是如此——我知道我們正在討論服務問題，但幾乎感覺關於利潤率除燃料或基本盈利指導的基本指導實際上會比你之前想像的更好。我這樣想對嗎？

Yes. So let me hit your first question there, Scott, in terms of sequentially. So the pricing environment continues to be very robust. There is really -- that demand environment is there. But you do have -- sequentially, the mix is negative going from fourth quarter to first quarter. And that's really mix within mix. So yes, bulk and industrial are up. Intermodal or the premium piece is still down. But when you look at where the growth was on the bulk side, it really was coal, very strong coal growth. But when you look at the ARCs relative to the other components of bulk, coal has the lowest ARC. So you've got that mix within mix impact. And you have a similar story within the industrial side when you look at where the growth was. And industrial, strong across the board with the exception of petroleum, but some of the strongest growth in metals. And that also has your lowest average revenue per car within that group. So that is the story in terms of the yield sequentially.

是的。斯科特，讓我按順序回答你的第一個問題。因此，定價環境仍然非常強勁。需求環境確實存在。但確實如此——從第四季到第一季度，這種組合是負面的。這確實是混合中的混合。所以，是的，散貨和工業產品都在上漲。多式聯運或優質產品的價格仍然下跌。但當你看看散裝方面的成長時，你會發現確實是煤炭，非常強勁的煤炭成長。但是，當您查看相對於散裝其他成分的 ARC 時，會發現煤炭的 ARC 最低。所以你已經在混合影響中得到了混合。當你看看成長的地方時，你會發現工業方面也有類似的情況。而工業方面，除石油外全線強勁，但一些金屬成長最為強勁。而且該組中每輛車的平均收入也是最低的。這就是產量順序的故事。

When you look to the OR, fuel is certainly a headwind, but we see that headwind lessening through the year from an OR impact. And so we are looking at both the fuel and the operational performance, but the volume leverage. And that's the piece that I think maybe I need to stress the most with you all. And that's the piece that's within our control and the piece that we're working very diligently on. When we see stronger volumes coming in the second half, being able to leverage those very well with perhaps a little bit better mix, if you continue to have that industrial growth coming in a little bit stronger, I think that's how you get to the revised OR guidance.

當你觀察 OR 時，燃料肯定是一個逆風，但我們發現這一逆風在這一年中因 OR 的影響而減弱。因此，我們不僅關注燃料和營運績效，還關注銷售槓桿。我想這就是我最需要向大家強調的部分。這是我們可以控制的部分，也是我們正在非常努力的部分。當我們看到下半年銷量更加強勁時，能夠很好地利用這些銷量，也許會有更好的組合，如果工業成長繼續強勁一點，我認為這就是修正後的方式或指導。

Okay. Just so I understand that point about fuel. Are you assuming that fuel price comes down or just that you catch up on the surcharge, and so the OR impact is just naturally less as the year goes on?

好的。只是為了讓我了解關於燃料的這一點。您是否假設燃油價格下降，或者只是您趕上了附加費，因此隨著時間的推移，OR 的影響自然會減少？

It's the latter that you say there. It's really a stabilization in the fuel price. And so we're catching up. And the fuel was going up a little bit in the second half of last year. So it's taking those 2 things together, Scott.

你說的是後者。這確實是燃油價格的穩定。所以我們正在迎頭趕上。去年下半年，燃油價格略有上漲。所以史考特，要把這兩件事放在一起。

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬丹·阿利格 (Jordan Alliger)。

Just sort of a big-picture question. Obviously, you and others put PSR and PSR methodology into play. And I know things are a bit unprecedented, but do long-term broader adjustments to how you think about precision-scheduled railroading need to take place? And is the resiliency, after going through all that, a surprise to the negative to you overall?

只是一個大局問題。顯然，您和其他人都將 PSR 和 PSR 方法發揮了作用。我知道事情有點史無前例，但是您對精確調度鐵路的看法是否需要進行長期更廣泛的調整？經歷了這一切之後，你的恢復能力是否令你感到意外？

Yes. Jordan, thanks for asking that question. So unequivocally, PSR has been a benefit to the railroad, even in our current environment. Let's go back to what it means. It means we try to touch cars the fewest amount of times necessary to satisfy demand for our customers and the customer need. So we don't do waste work. That by itself allows us to have excess capacity in both the terminals and in our line of road that we can use for other purposes. We also try to deconstruct our specialized networks where that makes sense so that we can have shared trains that are advancing cars more rapidly than they would otherwise.

是的。喬丹，謝謝你提出這個問題。毫無疑問，即使在我們當前的環境下，PSR 也為鐵路帶來了好處。讓我們回到它的意義。這意味著我們嘗試以最少的次數接觸汽車，以滿足客戶的需求和需求。所以我們不做無用功。這本身就使我們能夠在航站樓和道路上擁有多餘的容量，可以將其用於其他目的。我們也嘗試解構我們的專業網絡，這樣我們就可以擁有一輛共享列車，從而比其他方式更快地推進汽車。

Unequivocally, when you look even at the way we're operating right now, when we have gotten into trouble prior to PSR, our operation would be worse, demonstrably worse. And we've proven through the last 3 years that when we get into trouble in the PSR environment, we can get out of trouble more readily. Now what's happening right now is, I'll blame it on us. Shame on us. We got to a place where we did not have the crew availability for when something went wrong to be able to over resource for a short period of time and get it out of the network. And that's a tough -- it's not a lesson. It's a tough situation to be in because we've already learned that lesson.

明確地說，如果你看看我們現在的運作方式，當我們在 PSR 之前遇到麻煩時，我們的營運會更糟，顯然更糟。過去三年我們已經證明，當我們在 PSR 環境中遇到麻煩時，我們可以更輕鬆地擺脫麻煩。現在發生的事情是，我會把責任歸咎於我們。為我們感到羞恥。當出現問題時，我們沒有可用的工作人員，無法在短時間內過度使用資源並將其從網路中刪除。這很艱難——這不是一個教訓。這是一個艱難的處境，因為我們已經學到教訓了。

So as we look forward, what we have to do is make sure that our business-planning processes for resources are rock solid and that we do a better job of making sure that our network and our resources and our plan is tightly coordinated with customers and their need and get them matched up, and match them up over a time frame that is the same as how we can add resources for growth. So yes, unequivocally, PSR is remaining the way to go. It is helping us manage the business right now, and that's not why we got into trouble.

因此，展望未來，我們要做的就是確保我們的資源業務規劃流程堅如磐石，並更好地確保我們的網絡、資源和計劃與客戶和計劃緊密協調。一個時間範圍內匹配他們，這與我們如何添加資源以促進成長相同。所以，是的，毫無疑問，PSR 仍然是要走的路。它正在幫助我們管理現在的業務，這不是我們遇到麻煩的原因。

Our next question comes from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Jennifer, that 65% incremental margin target for this year, is that compare -- is that ex fuel or headlines? Because I'm trying to understand if it's comparable to the 56% you did in the quarter or the 45% you did, including kind of on a headline basis.

Jennifer，今年 65% 的增量利潤目標，是比較嗎——是前燃料還是頭條新聞？因為我試圖了解它是否與您在本季度所做的 56% 或 45% 相當，包括在標題基礎上。

No. That's a good clarifying question, Amit. When we talk to the incrementals, we're always talking about it in terms of normalizing for that fuel price. So that's comparable to the 56% that we reported here in the first quarter.

不，這是一個很好的澄清問題，阿米特。當我們談論增量時，我們總是從燃油價格正常化的角度來談論它。這與我們第一季報告的 56% 相當。

Okay. Okay. So yes, that's what I thought. And so the implication is, I mean, it's going to depend on what revenue growth is. But if the implication is that you guys are going to do a 53% to 55% OR cumulatively over 2Q, 3Q and 4Q, which is a big step up in the context of kind of these ongoing service issues, one thing I wanted to clarify is the fuel surcharge, obviously, it was up 20% sequentially, but I assume you're going to take a very big step up in the second quarter, some of the March increase, and then maybe even subsequently third quarter. So I'm just trying to figure out the confidence around the next 3 quarters and how much of that bridge, so to speak, of that step-function improvement, is that actually just fuel surcharge revenue that comes on disproportionately, the increase in fuel costs?

好的。好的。是的，我就是這麼想的。因此，我的意思是，這將取決於收入成長。但如果這意味著你們將在第二季、第三季和第四季累計完成53% 到55% 的任務，這在這些持續的服務問題的背景下是一個很大的進步，我想澄清一件事是燃油附加費，顯然，它比上一季度上漲了 20％，但我認為您將在第二季度大幅上漲，其中一些是 3 月份的上漲，甚至可能是隨後的第三季度。因此，我只是想弄清楚對未來三個季度的信心，以及可以說，階梯功能改進的橋樑有多少，實際上只是不成比例地出現的燃油附加費收入，燃油的增加成本？

Yes. So I mean, we do still see the price of fuel being a headwind in terms of our OR. As I talked to Scott, we see that lessening through the course of the year, but we don't see that OR impact flipping and being a tailwind to our OR. So your math that you said in terms of the last 3 quarters of the year in terms of OR, I don't know that I would necessarily agree with that. That seems fairly aggressive. But it is about seeing a stability in the fuel prices, which does allow the fuel surcharge, obviously, to catch up a bit.

是的。所以我的意思是，就我們的 OR 而言，我們仍然認為燃料價格是一個阻力。正如我與斯科特交談時，我們看到這種情況在這一年中有所減少，但我們沒有看到 OR 影響翻轉並成為我們 OR 的順風車。所以你所說的數學是用今年最後三個季度的 OR 來表示的，我不知道我一定會同意這一點。這看起來相當激進。但這是為了看到燃油價格的穩定，這確實讓燃油附加費顯然能夠跟上一些。

Well, and Jennifer, we also just need to circle back. There's one other predicate on that, and that is we are improving the service product through the quarter and through the back half of the year.

好吧，詹妮弗，我們也只需要繞回來。對此還有另一個前提，那就是我們正在整個季度和今年下半年改進服務產品。

Absolutely. And that goes back to the commentary about volume leverage.

絕對地。這又回到了關於成交量槓桿的評論。

Yes.

是的。

Right. If I could just sneak in one last one for Lance, which I think is an important question. Obviously, BNSF is making a bigger push into intermodal with its joint venture with Hunt. And Hunt's obviously the largest IMC out there with a big asset behind them -- asset base behind them. You guys have won a lot of intermodal business recently. Does that change your strategy in terms of what you need to do? Do you need to invest in the intermodal service to compete with this -- your direct competitor that seems to be going all in on really putting a decent amount of investments at play to win more business in intermodal?

正確的。如果我能為蘭斯偷偷地講最後一個，我認為這是一個重要的問題。顯然，BNSF 正透過與 Hunt 的合資企業加大力度進軍多式聯運領域。亨特顯然是最大的 IMC，其背後擁有巨大的資產——資產基礎。你們最近贏了許多聯運業務。這是否會改變您需要做什麼的策略？您是否需要投資多式聯運服務來與之競爭——您的直接競爭對手似乎正在全力投入大量投資，以贏得更多多式聯運業務？

Yes. Amit, I don't think it changes fundamentally our strategy in the domestic intermodal world. The BNSF and J.B. Hunt have always been formidable competitors. And what we've done, by adding Knight-Swift and Schneider, along with having XPO and our long-term partner, Hub, working with us, is we've got channel partners that can grow very effectively against that. And when you combine that with our EMP and UMAX program for some of the smaller and midsized IMCs, we are fielding a really talented, very compelling story for BCOs to use us.

是的。阿米特，我認為這不會從根本上改變我們在國內多式聯運領域的策略。 BNSF 和 J.B. Hunt 一直是強大的競爭對手。我們所做的，透過增加 Knight-Swift 和 Schneider，以及 XPO 和我們的長期合作夥伴 Hub 與我們合作，我們擁有了可以非常有效地發展的通路合作夥伴。當您將其與我們針對一些中小型 IMC 的 EMP 和 UMAX 計劃結合起來時，我們正在為 BCO 提供一個非常有才華、非常引人注目的故事來使用我們。

It is no surprise that our primary competitor in BNSF and their primary partner in Hunt are doubling down on how they approach the market. And candidly, that kind of competition between us, our channel partners and them and their channel partners is fantastic for the users, for the customers of domestic intermodal.

毫不奇怪，我們的主要競爭對手 BNSF 及其主要合作夥伴 Hunt 正在加倍努力進入市場。坦白說，我們、我們的通路合作夥伴以及他們及其通路合作夥伴之間的這種競爭對於用戶和國內多式聯運的客戶來說是非常棒的。

Our next question is from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe a question for Kenny or Lance. I wanted to think about sort of the overall demand environment. Clearly, I think there's business that's available now that you're not capable of moving from a service perspective. So maybe a little bit of perspective on the amount of business that you may be turning away or sort of metering as it stands right now.

也許有個問題想問肯尼或蘭斯。我想考慮整體需求環境。顯然，我認為現在有一些業務是可用的，但您無法從服務角度轉移。因此，也許對您可能會拒絕的業務量有一點看法，或者對目前的情況進行某種計量。

And then thinking a bit bigger picture, what do we think the outlook is really for the rest of the year? I guess, there's a question of overall consumer activity and the pace of demand as the rest of the year plays out. So want to get a sense of what you're hearing from the customers in terms of expansion or contraction plans as they think about the rest of the year. Obviously, we're hopeful that as service comes back, there will remain demand being relatively strong, but want to get a sense of what you're hearing on the ground.

然後從更大的角度思考，我們認為今年剩餘時間的前景如何？我想，隨著今年剩餘時間的推移，整體消費者活動和需求節奏會出現問題。因此，希望了解客戶對今年剩餘時間的擴張或收縮計劃的看法。顯然，我們希望隨著服務的恢復，需求仍將相對強勁，但希望了解您在實地聽到的情況。

Yes, Kenny, you want to handle that?

是的，肯尼，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Chris. You set aside some of the macro things that we're delving on, we're keeping an eye on the inflation rates that are out there. Obviously, there have been some stops and starts with COVID disruptions in China. But when I look across each of our business teams, it's a very optimistic story. You look at our coal business, we talk of winds, none of us would have predicted that natural gas prices are as high as they are and are going to sustain where they are.

是的。謝謝，克里斯。拋開我們正在研究的一些宏觀問題，我們正在密切關注當前的通貨膨脹率。顯然，新冠疫情對中國造成的干擾出現了一些停頓和開始。但當我審視我們每個業務團隊時，這是一個非常樂觀的故事。看看我們的煤炭業務，我們談論風能，我們沒有人會預料到天然氣價格會如此之高，並且會維持在目前的水平。

Our grain business has been very strong. Last year was very strong. I tell you, the upside there is on the biofuels market and the grain products area, which is great. And then as we look throughout the rest of the year, we expect that export fertilizer demand will stay there.

我們的糧食業務一直非常強勁。去年非常強勁。我告訴你，生物燃料市場和穀物產品領域有很大的上升空間。然後，當我們展望今年剩餘時間時，我們預計出口化肥需求將保持不變。

On the industrial side, really, same story. I mean, we've got some business development wins, but we've also just got some structural things that are helping us out. Metals has been very strong. There've been some expansions on the plastic side. Those markets are still recovering and have been very strong. We'll keep an eye on the housing starts. The inventories are still low. There's still a backlog of houses that need to be built, so our lumber and our paper business has been strong.

在工業方面，確實是同樣的情況。我的意思是，我們已經取得了一些業務發展的勝利，但我們也剛剛獲得了一些結構性的東西來幫助我們擺脫困境。金屬一直非常強勁。塑膠方面已經有了一些擴充。這些市場仍在復甦且非常強勁。我們將密切注意房屋開工情況。庫存仍然很低。仍有積壓的房屋需要建造，因此我們的木材和紙張業務一直很強勁。

And then on the premium side, our auto parts and finished vehicles business still is not where it should be. It's improving. We talked with some customers. Car dealership inventories are around 24, 25 days. We see that improving as we move throughout the year. On our international intermodal side, the amount that's going IPI has improved -- or improved in the first quarter. We had some customers in here recently. We're expecting them to turn on more of that volume. So the things that we can control, we feel really good about. Domestic intermodal has been up, as I mentioned in my commentary. So from what we can control, we feel good about. We just got to keep an eye on some of these other things that are out of our control.

然後在高端方面，我們的汽車零件和整車業務仍然沒有達到應有的水準。它正在改善。我們與一些客戶進行了交談。汽車經銷商庫存約為 24、25 天。隨著我們全年的發展，我們看到這種情況有所改善。在我們的國際多式聯運方面，IPI 的數量有所改善，或者說第一季有所改善。最近我們這裡有一些客戶。我們預計他們會打開更多的音量。所以我們能夠控制的事情，我們感覺非常好。正如我在評論中提到的，國內多式聯運已經上漲。因此，從我們可以控制的事情來看，我們感覺良好。我們只需要專注於一些我們無法控制的其他事情。

And Kenny, I want to brag on your team for a moment. You're doing really tremendous work on business development -- on pure business development. The singles and doubles, where we bring on a customer, we grow with an existing customer through service enhancement and enhancing the overall customer experience. Even in the context of the service issues that we're facing right now from a service product perspective, behind the scenes, the overall customer experience, we continue to invest in that and continue to make progress.

肯尼，我想誇誇你的團隊。你們在業務發展方面——在純粹的業務發展方面——做了非常巨大的工作。在單打和雙打比賽中，我們會吸引客戶，並透過增強服務和整體客戶體驗與現有客戶一起成長。即使在我們現在面臨的服務問題的背景下，從服務產品的角度來看，在幕後，整體客戶體驗，我們仍然繼續投資並繼續取得進展。

Yes. They're out there hustling and engaging the customer.

是的。他們在那裡推銷並吸引顧客。

Our next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

I did want to follow up on the domestic intermodal expectations into the back half because it's kind of -- based on what you said about the competition with the BN as well as expectations for the truck market to loosen in the back half of the year, I'm kind of starting a little bit to feel like what the tailwind is on the domestic intermodal side that will get that to accelerate in the back half of the year. So are there new contracts coming on? Kind of what gets that to go up? So that's question number one.

我確實想跟進下半年國內多式聯運的預期，因為這有點——基於你所說的與國陣的競爭以及卡車市場在下半年放鬆的預期，我開始有點感覺國內多式聯運方面的順風將在今年下半年加速。那麼有新合約即將簽訂嗎？是什麼讓它上漲？這是第一個問題。

And question number two is, if you can give us a little bit of a sneak peek into the STB hearing in a few days, kind of, obviously, you guys have spoken a lot about service challenges and everything you're doing right now, but what do you think is going to be the outcome on that hearing?

第二個問題是，如果您能讓我們先睹為快，了解幾天后的 STB 聽證會，顯然，您已經談論了很多關於服務挑戰和您現在正在做的一切，但您認為聽證會會產生什麼結果？

Kenny, why don't you handle the back half domestic intermodal question, and I'll get to the STB after you're done.

肯尼，你為什麼不處理後半部國內聯運問題，你處理完後我會去機上盒。

Yes. Thanks, Ravi. A couple questions there, and it sounds like demand and also the pricing environment. We're about 40%, almost close to halfway through our bid sessions on the domestic side, and it's been favorable versus last year. Last year was also a pretty -- a strong, solid year. Now the spot rates have gone down here recently. So we've got to keep an eye on that.

是的。謝謝，拉維。有幾個問題，聽起來像是需求和定價環境。我們的得標率約為 40%，幾乎已經接近國內招標的一半，與去年相比，情況比較有利。去年也是美好、強勁、堅實的一年。現在這裡的即期匯率最近已經下降了。所以我們必須密切注意這一點。

But I'll tell you, the overall demand has not changed. And so we're going to continue to look at that over the next few weeks as we're in those competitive bids. Again, we brought on the Knight-Swift business, but we do have more volume that's coming on as we look at the back half of the year.

但我告訴你，整體需求沒有改變。因此，我們將在接下來的幾週內繼續關注這一問題，因為我們正在進行競爭性投標。我們再次引入了 Knight-Swift 業務，但從今年下半年來看，我們確實有更多的業務量。

The other thing is that we just need the supply chain to work itself out. Chassis dwell is still not really where it should be. The dwell of containers is not really where it should be. So we'll see some improvement there.

另一件事是我們只需要供應鏈自行解決。底盤停留仍然沒有真正達到應有的位置。容器的駐留位置並未真正位於其應有的位置。所以我們會看到一些改進。

And then you made some comments about our primary competitor in the West. And I want to echo what Lance said. The pie is much larger than the primary competitors in the West, and we've had so much investment. As you look at the ramps in the Inland Empire, Twin Cities, everything we're doing with GPS, we want to compete with trucks, and that's what we're focused on.

然後你對我們在西方的主要競爭對手發表了一些評論。我想回應蘭斯所說的話。蛋糕比西方的主要競爭對手大得多，我們的投資也很大。當你看到內陸帝國、雙子城的坡道時，我們用 GPS 所做的一切，我們希望與卡車競爭，這就是我們關注的重點。

Yes. And as we improve the service product, Kenny, get that reliable, we're in great position to take more trucks off the highway. It just makes all the sense in the world, including an ESG perspective.

是的。隨著我們改進服務產品，肯尼，變得可靠，我們處於有利地位，可以讓更多卡車離開高速公路。這在世界上都是有意義的，包括 ESG 觀點。

Ravi, your question on the STB hearing, clearly, the entire rail industry is in a place where we're, as a collective, not providing the kind of service that our customers demand. The STB appropriately is hearing from customers and want to talk about it. That's what next week is all about. We're well-prepared for those conversations and to share with the STB how we're investing and planning to continue to improve and recover and then be stable going forward and reliable and consistent. And I think that's going to be a great opportunity to have that discussion.

拉維，你在 STB 聽證會上提出的問題，很明顯，整個鐵路行業作為一個集體，無法提供客戶所需的服務。 STB 正在聽取客戶的意見並希望對此進行討論。這就是下週的全部內容。我們已為這些對話做好充分準備，並與 STB 分享我們如何投資和計劃繼續改進和恢復，然後保持穩定、可靠和一致。我認為這將是進行討論的絕佳機會。

We're going to encourage the STB not to make rash or knee-jerk decisions in this environment. There are some things on their docket that, I would guess, I would imagine, somebody will advocate as solutions. And from our perspective, this is all about getting our labor right, getting utilization right, making sure the other resources are ready, and then executing. It's not much more complex than that right now.

我們將鼓勵 STB 在這種環境下不要做出魯莽或下意識的決定。我猜想，我想，他們的清單上有一些事情，有人會提倡作為解決方案。從我們的角度來看，這一切都是為了正確地利用我們的勞動力，正確地利用，確保其他資源準備就緒，然後執行。事情並不比現在複雜多少。

Our next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Walter Spracklin。

So Lance, you mentioned over-resourcing or the ability to over-resource. And I guess, my question is, really, if that is limited only to your ability to ramp up labor? Or are you looking at ways and do you feel like you need to look at ways to expand your capacity from a -- or an infrastructure standpoint, be it on track and locomotives and so on?

蘭斯，你提到了資源過剩或資源過剩的能力。我想，我的問題是，真的，這是否僅限於你增加勞動力的能力？或者您是否正在尋找方法，並且您覺得需要從基礎設施的角度考慮擴大容量的方法，無論是軌道和機車等？

And it just goes back to the STB, some of the discussions Chairman Oberman is having about the lack of railroad ability to invest or the historical decision not to invest that is leading to the lack of available capacity, and I wonder how would you respond to that and, particularly, if it's just a labor problem or if you need some more capacity and investment in your network as well.

這又回到了 STB，奧伯曼主席正在就缺乏鐵路投資能力或不投資的歷史決定導致可用能力缺乏進行一些討論，我想知道您會如何回應尤其是，如果這只是勞動力問題，或者您還需要對網路進行更多容量和投資。

Yes, Walter, we take a great exception to anyone that points at our historic track record and says we're underinvesting in our railroad, right? When you spend $3 billion, $4 billion a year, that's not underinvesting. And look at the statistics, look at the facts. You go back 4 or 5 years, we would have 800 or 900 trains on our network at any given time. Today, we're overloaded by plan at 700. That number should really be 600. And our network has had incremental investment put into it.

是的，沃爾特，對於那些指出我們的歷史記錄並說我們對鐵路投資不足的人，我們非常例外，對嗎？當你每年花費 30 億美元、40 億美元時，這並不是投資不足。看看統計數據，看看事實。回溯 4 或 5 年前，我們的網路上在任何特定時間都會有 800 或 900 趟列車。今天，我們的計劃超載了 700 個。

That's what I mean by making sure we have excess resources. We've done that through the implementation of PSR in terms of we have excess terminal capacity that we can use by having mothballed certain terminals that we no longer needed in the T Plan. We've got plenty of line-of-road capacity that we can use. And we continue to invest there so that we can continue to grow out efficiency, safety, productivity and growth in targeted areas.

這就是我所說的確保我們擁有過剩資源的意思。我們透過實作 PSR 來做到這一點，因為我們擁有多餘的終端容量，我們可以透過封存 T 計畫中不再需要的某些終端來使用這些容量。我們有足夠的道路容量可供使用。我們將繼續在那裡投資，以便我們能夠繼續提高目標領域的效率、安全性、生產力和成長。

So when I'm talking like that, I'm really talking about the more fungible resources like crews and locomotives. And locomotives, we're in great shape, right? We have a strategy where we have at-the-ready locomotives positioned around the network so that we can fire them up when they're needed and then put them back once we've gotten out of the situation.

因此，當我這樣說話時，我實際上是在談論更可替代的資源，例如機組人員和機車。還有機車，我們狀態很好，對吧？我們有一個策略，在網路周圍放置準備好的機車，以便我們可以在需要時啟動它們，然後在擺脫困境後將它們放回去。

So it's really -- to your point, Walter, it's really back down to crews. Historically, we've had AWTS boards, alternative work and training service boards, where we would be able to have people not going to furlough but go into kind of a quasi-status where they're still getting paid, they're still getting resources from us, their benefits package in its entirety. And that allows us to call them back more quickly if something happens in a demand profile that we didn't expect.

所以，就你的觀點而言，沃爾特，這真的取決於工作人員。從歷史上看，我們有 AWTS 委員會、替代工作和培訓服務委員會，我們可以讓人們不去休假，而是進入一種準狀態，他們仍然得到報酬，他們仍然得到報酬我們提供的資源以及他們的全部福利。如果需求情況發生了我們沒有預料到的情況，這使我們能夠更快地回電給他們。

We need to get back to a place where we've got those kinds of resources available to us, and we're looking at all of those. But job one that we talked about, first and foremost, is making sure we get crew utilization and crew availability and total crewing right so that we can handle the volume we've got in front of us and the growth that's coming.

我們需要回到一個擁有這些資源的地方，我們正在研究所有這些資源。但我們談到的第一項工作，首先也是最重要的，是確保我們獲得正確的船員利用率、船員可用性和船員總數，以便我們能夠處理我們面前的數量和即將到來的增長。

I think that's a great answer. And do you think that's resonating with the STB? Or what is your sense that, that answer will kind of give you some -- at least some time to kind of prove it out over the coming quarters and years? Or do you see risk that they may take action to force you to invest in capacity above and beyond all the capacity investments you just mentioned?

我認為這是一個很好的答案。您認為這會引起 STB 的共鳴嗎？或者你覺得這個答案會給你一些——至少一些時間在未來幾季和幾年裡證明這一點？或者您認為他們可能採取行動迫使您投資超出您剛才提到的所有容量投資的風險？

Walter, I'm an optimist. And I'm hopeful that the facts, which support what I just talked about, speak to the STB and we're effective at communicating that.

沃特，我是個樂觀主義者。我希望 STB 能夠得到支持我剛才所說內容的事實，並且我們能夠有效地傳達這一點。

Next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自大衛·弗農和伯恩斯坦。

Two questions for you on the domestic intermodal side again. Eric, as you're resourcing the network right now, obviously, Kenny's team has done a good job bringing over some fairly big accounts in 2023, will you have enough capacity by the end of the year to accommodate that? Or will there still be incremental growth required in resource into 2023 to accommodate that, those intermodal share wins?

又請教您兩個關於國內聯運方面的問題。 Eric，正如您現在正在為網路提供資源一樣，顯然，Kenny 的團隊在 2023 年引入了一些相當大的客戶，做得很好，到今年年底您是否有足夠的容量來容納這些客戶？或者到 2023 年，資源是否仍需要增量成長才能適應這些多式聯運份額的成長？

Yes. So thank you for the question, David. We will have the capacity to be able to host that additional volume. Now as we've been working through the onboarding process, that's part of that process is to ensure that we're making the necessary investments.

是的。謝謝你的提問，大衛。我們將有能力容納額外的捲。現在，我們一直在完成入職流程，而流程的一部分是確保我們進行必要的投資。

And it's not always capital investments. Oftentimes, it's just process improvements. For example, considering the fact of Knight-Swift and Schneider now having their own chassis, and how do we think about that and optimize our terminals to account for that.

而且並不總是資本投資。通常，這只是流程改善。例如，考慮到 Knight-Swift 和 Schneider 現在擁有自己的底盤，我們如何考慮這一點並優化我們的終端以解決這個問題。

When I'm out on the railroad, I see the output of those efforts. When I see us getting near completion on our G4 gantry cranes, when I see us buying additional lift equipment, the work that we're doing on the Inland Empire and the Twin Cities Intermodal terminal, those are all in response, not just Knight-Swift and Schneider, but to the entire volume and growth that we see coming and being ready for all of our customers to benefit from that.

當我在鐵路上時，我看到了這些努力的成果。當我看到我們的G4 龍門起重機即將完工時，當我看到我們購買額外的起重設備時，當我看到我們在內陸帝國和雙城聯運碼頭所做的工作時，這些都是回應，而不僅僅是奈特-斯威夫特和施耐德，但我們看到了整個數量和增長，並準備好讓我們所有的客戶從中受益。

All right. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up. When we think about the 20%, 30%, 40% growth in the domestic container fleet we're going to be seeing over the next couple of years, it sounds like a lot of private equipment is being added. What do you guys think that your intermodal franchise is going to look like from an equipment perspective 3, 4, 5 years down the road? Are you also going to be resourcing containers into the UMAX and the EMP programs? Or are you going to be allowing your channel partners to make those investments in trailing capacity?

好的。然後也許只是作為一個快速的後續行動。當我們想到未來幾年國內貨櫃船隊將成長 20%、30%、40% 時，聽起來好像會增加大量私人設備。從設備的角度來看，你們認為 3、4、5 年後你們的多式聯運特許經營權會是什麼樣子？您是否還將為 UMAX 和 EMP 計劃提供容器資源？或者您打算允許您的通路合作夥伴對追蹤容量進行這些投資？

Kenny, you want to handle that?

肯尼，你想解決這個問題嗎？

Yes. I mean, we feel really good about our strategy to go in and invest in our equipment that we have out there with EMP and UMAX. I talk about the GPS earlier. You've heard me talk about the chassis investment. We see that we can win across the board. We can win with the private asset side and with the IMC community, and we want to grow that pie. And so that's how we're thinking about it. As other private asset carriers are out there, we'll engage them on their strategy. But clearly, we don't want to put any limits on anything that would inhibit growth.

是的。我的意思是，我們對我們的策略感到非常滿意，即進入並投資我們擁有的 EMP 和 UMAX 設備。我之前講過GPS。你聽過我談論底盤投資。我們看到我們可以全面獲勝。我們可以與私人資產方和 IMC 社區一起獲勝，並且我們希望將這塊蛋糕做大。這就是我們的想法。由於存在其他私人資產運營商，我們將讓他們參與制定策略。但顯然，我們不想對任何抑製成長的事情施加任何限制。

I would guess, Kenny, given the growth that we're seeing first through Knight-Swift, then with Schneider and the continued growth of Hub, it's probably fair to say the ratio of privates versus EMP, UMAX on us grows towards the private side.

我猜，肯尼，考慮到我們首先透過 Knight-Swift 看到的成長，然後隨著 Schneider 和 Hub 的持續增長，可以公平地說，我們的私人與 EMP、UMAX 的比率向私人方面增長。

That's fair. Yes.

這還算公平。是的。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So clearly, a lot depends on service improvement here in the next couple quarters. Just wanted to get your sense, Lance or Eric, about just the risk to the plan. What are you really focused on? What are you really worried about?

顯然，很大程度上取決於接下來幾季的服務改善。蘭斯或埃里克，只是想了解您對計劃風險的看法。你真正關注的是什麼？你真正擔心的是什麼？

And then, Lance, you did mention a few things on how to get this more sustainable in the future. There'll always be labor and volume variability. But is there something else you feel like that UP or maybe the industry overall needs to get better at in terms of being able to manage these ebbs and flows a bit better and then being able to grow from there?

然後，蘭斯，你確實提到了一些關於如何在未來變得更永續的事情。勞動力和數量總是存在變化。但是，您還有什麼感覺像 UP 或者整個行業需要做得更好，能夠更好地管理這些潮起潮落，然後能夠從中成長嗎？

Well, why don't I start with the back half of that question, Brian, and then I'll turn it over to Eric on the front half in terms of some of the bumps in the night that you're planning for, that you're mitigating. So in terms of how to be more resilient and robust, there's a lot to that question. Some of it's our direct control. Some of it has to be in partnership with our customers.

好吧，我為什麼不從這個問題的後半部分開始，布萊恩，然後我將把它的前半部分交給埃里克，根據你計劃的晚上的一些顛簸，你正在緩解。因此，就如何變得更有彈性和穩健而言，這個問題有很多。其中一些是我們的直接控制。其中一些必須與我們的客戶合作。

So what's in our direct control? We have to make sure that our jobs are more flexible and more attractive and easier to hire into. So one thing that we're in the middle of right now as an industry is trying to get to a place where 2 people in the cab of a locomotive are not mandated and negotiate with our union partners on moving one of those people onto the ground.

那什麼是我們直接控制的呢？我們必須確保我們的工作更靈活、更有吸引力、更容易聘用。因此，作為一個行業，我們現在正面臨的一件事是，試圖實現一個不強制要求機車駕駛室裡有 2 人的地方，並與我們的工會夥伴談判，將其中一人轉移到地面上。

That doesn't sound like much, but that one person on the ground can turn into a shift job and stay at home as they're doing their work. That's a huge lifestyle benefit to that person as opposed to going over the road, staying away from home and then coming back and being called at potentially all hours of the day.

這聽起來並不算多，但是現場的一個人可以轉而輪班工作，並在工作時留在家裡。這對那個人來說是一個巨大的生活方式好處，而不是穿過馬路，遠離家鄉，然後回來並可能在一天中的所有時間都被打電話。

So that -- it's not obvious how that connects back into being more reliable, more resilient, more consistent, but there's an obvious connection from our perspective. There's other things like that, that are smaller that we need to do. I talked about AWTS and getting back to a place where we have, not excess manpower sitting around, but our labor force, our craft professionals are more flexible to go to where the work is and do the work when it's needed and still have an enhancement in their work-life balance.

因此，這如何與更可靠、更有彈性、更一致聯繫並不明顯，但從我們的角度來看，有明顯的關聯。還有其他類似的事情，但我們需要做的規模較小。我談到了 AWTS，並回到我們擁有的地方，不是多餘的人力閒置，而是我們的勞動力，我們的工藝專業人員更靈活地去工作地點，在需要時做工作，並且仍然有增強他們的工作與生活的平衡。

So there's a lot of work that we have to do with our unions on property and negotiation and national in negotiation, and then just in how we design our boards and our T Plan and our work overall. Eric, do you want to handle that first part?

因此，我們必須與工會在財產和談判以及國家談判方面做很多工作，然後就是我們如何設計我們的董事會、我們的 T 計劃和我們的整體工作。艾瑞克，你想處理第一部分嗎？

Yes. So Brian, as you think about the recovery and what are we doing to derisk that, I'd first start off with just the basic fundamentals of, we are coming out of winter. We're coming out of a period of time where we have seen higher variability. As we come into spring, it's a period of time in which we have been more consistent, especially with the impact of weather.

是的。所以，布萊恩，當你考慮復甦以及我們正在採取哪些措施來避免這種風險時，我首先從基本面開始，我們即將走出冬天。我們正在經歷一段時期，我們看到了更大的變化。當我們進入春天時，這是我們更一致的一段時間，尤其是在天氣的影響下。

Second, yes, we've mentioned it a couple of, but it's really the most important thing as we sit here right now. If you look at previous times of service challenges, it's been in our terminals. We've been able to get the volume to the terminals, but then the volume in the terminal starts to slow the terminal.

其次，是的，我們已經提到過幾次，但這確實是我們現在坐在這裡的最重要的事情。如果你看看以前的服務挑戰，它就出現在我們的航站樓中。我們已經能夠獲得終端的音量，但終端中的音量開始減慢終端的速度。

That's not the case right now. The case right now is that we have fluid terminals, both our large terminals, our serving yards and our locals getting to customers. That must stay that way. So the way we think about bringing trains into the terminals and landing them on time but also properly spaced so we can handle it so we don't get a backlog. That's derisking it.

現在的情況並非如此。現在的情況是，我們有流動的碼頭，包括我們的大型碼頭、我們的服務場和我們的當地人來接觸客戶。必須保持這種狀態。因此，我們考慮將火車引入航站樓並準時著陸，但也要適當間隔，這樣我們就可以處理它，這樣我們就不會積壓。這就是消除風險。

If you look at another way, as we talked about crews, we're in the crew-preserving mode right now. We want to make sure that every crew we call counts. One of the ways we do that is with train length. So if you go back all the way to January, we were sitting around 9,000 feet on a system average. We added 200 feet to that in January, another 200 feet in February and March and another 150 feet year-to-date. That's derisking the recovery. That's ensuring that we're taking every opportunity we can to minimize the number of trains out on line or road. So it's all activities like that, and that's what the entire team is focused on.

如果你從另一個角度來看，就像我們談論船員一樣，我們現在正處於船員保護模式。我們希望確保我們呼叫的每一位工作人員都很重要。我們做到這一點的方法之一是調整列車長度。因此，如果您一直追溯到 1 月份，我們的系統平均高度約為 9,000 英尺。我們在一月份增加了 200 英尺，在二月和三月又增加了 200 英尺，今年迄今又增加了 150 英尺。這會降低經濟復甦的風險。這確保我們利用一切機會盡量減少線路或公路上的火車數量。所以所有的活動都是這樣的，這就是整個團隊的重點。

All right, Eric. That's very helpful. Lance, if you can just give us some quick thoughts on the CP-KC merger. I think the responses back from CP are due tomorrow. So any updates on the concerns that UP has voiced in that would be helpful.

好吧，埃里克。這非常有幫助。 Lance，您能給我們一些關於 CP-KC 合併的快速想法嗎？我認為 CP 的回覆將於明天到期。因此，關於 UP 所表達的擔憂的任何更新都會有所幫助。

Yes. Brian, I would just reiterate what our concerns are. It really boils down to 3 things that we think we need remedies for. The first is, for our customers to continue to enjoy the kind of access they have to and from Mexico, we need certainty on price that's competitive from the border into Mexico. We think about that like prop rates.

是的。布萊恩，我只想重申我們的擔憂是什麼。這實際上可以歸結為我們認為需要補救措施的三件事。首先，為了讓我們的客戶繼續享受往返墨西哥的便利，我們需要從邊境進入墨西哥的價格具有競爭力的確定性。我們將其視為支柱利率。

Second, we need to maintain what we have today with the KCS, and that is fair treatment, equal treatment at the border crossings, on the bridge.

其次，我們需要維持我們今天在中南半島所擁有的，那就是公平待遇，在過境點和橋樑上的平等待遇。

And third, the KCS and CP have talked about a significant spike in converting truck to train and moving it on our trackage rights through Houston. Houston is a congested area. It's a -- it's not congested in a bad way. It's a high-volume area that requires a lot of attention.

第三，KCS 和 CP 討論了將卡車改裝為火車並將其通過休斯頓的軌道權運輸的大幅增長。休士頓是一個擁擠的地區。這是一個——它並沒有嚴重擁堵。這是一個需要大量關注的高容量區域。

If you introduce another 8 or 10 trains a day into that network in a rapid period without having the capital in place first, it'll tilt Houston, and we can't accept that. So we want to make sure that, if they're going to execute that plan and it's going to increase the amount of train traffic through Houston, the capital is spent in advance so it doesn't crater Houston as a result.

如果你在沒有先到位資金的情況下，每天在該網絡中快速引入另外 8 或 10 趟列車，這將使休斯頓傾斜，我們不能接受。因此，我們要確保，如果他們要執行該計劃，並且會增加休士頓的火車交通量，那麼資金就會提前支出，這樣就不會導致休士頓陷入困境。

Our next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的艾莉森‧波利尼亞克 (Allison Poliniak)。

You had mentioned a number of notable steps, obviously, towards zero sustainability target. But as you're having conversations with new business development, I guess, one, is that being recognized? And then as part of that, is that becoming increasingly important in their decision to execute with UNP towards an agreement? Just any thoughts there.

顯然，您提到了實現零可持續性目標的一些值得注意的步驟。但當你與新業務開發進行對話時，我想，第一，這一點是否得到了認可？那麼，作為其中的一部分，這對他們與 UNP 達成協議的決定變得越來越重要嗎？只是有任何想法。

Yes. Thank you, Allison. Kenny, you want to take that?

是的。謝謝你，艾莉森。肯尼，你想要那個嗎？

Yes. We have a number of customers that have always wanted to know where we are on ESG and sustainability component. And we are seeing in the RFPs and the formal RFP more focus there. Those customers are typically in the petrochem area or customers that have -- that are, I'll call them, consumer-facing type customers. So we do know that it's in their methodology.

是的。我們有許多客戶一直想知道我們在 ESG 和永續發展方面的進展。我們在 RFP 和正式 RFP 中看到更多的關注點。這些客戶通常位於石化領域，或是擁有面向消費者類型客戶的客戶。所以我們確實知道這是他們的方法論。

I'll tell you the other thing is that our commercial team is sitting down with our customers and walking through the value that we provide by them moving Union Pacific and actually selling that. So yes, it's more awareness on the customer part and more proactive engagement from our commercial team to fill that as part of our value proposition.

我要告訴你的另一件事是，我們的商業團隊正在與我們的客戶坐下來，探討我們透過他們移動聯合太平洋並實際銷售它所提供的價值。所以，是的，需要更多的客戶意識以及我們的商業團隊更積極的參與，才能將其作為我們價值主張的一部分。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 Cowen 的對話。

Wanted to go back a little bit to the intermodal side. As you think about your base case scenario on the international side, what's in it in terms of potential clogging up of the supply chain again? We've talked to a bunch of people, and there seems to be some worry here that we've had a bunch of black swan events over the last couple years.

想回到多式聯運方面。當您考慮國際方面的基本情況時，供應鏈可能再次堵塞的情況是什麼？我們已經與很多人交談過，似乎有人擔心我們在過去幾年中發生了很多黑天鵝事件。

Now we got another one with China ports just withholding all these shipments coming in. If they all come back to the ports at once, I don't think a lot of people have confidence that they're going to be able to handle it. What's UP set up like into the summer? And how do you think you're going to handle that?

現在我們又遇到了一個問題，中國港口只是扣留了所有這些貨物。 UP 進入夏季後的安排如何？你認為你會如何處理這個問題？

Let me start, and then I want to turn it over to Eric and Kenny to kind of add a bit more detail. But I want to, Jason, focus in on the partner side with railroad, what we need to depend on so that the network doesn't get overwhelmed.

讓我開始吧，然後我想把它交給艾瑞克和肯尼來添加更多細節。但傑森，我想把重點放在鐵路合作夥伴方面，我們需要依賴什麼，這樣網路才不會不堪重負。

I'm in part in agreement with you that we are not yet in a place where labor and distribution centers and warehouses and dray truck companies is at a place where it could take an onslaught of significant volume in the international intermodal space so -- that we still need more hiring and more labor available in local truck companies and dray companies and in distribution centers.

我部分同意你的觀點，即我們尚未達到勞動力和配送中心、倉庫以及運貨卡車公司能夠在國際多式聯運領域受到大量衝擊的程度，因此——我們仍然需要當地卡車公司、貨車公司以及配送中心增加招募和勞動力。

But Kenny and Eric, what about us?

但是肯尼和埃里克，我們呢？

Yes. The -- I mean, I think you hit it on the head, I'd say. And I'm looking at Eric as I say that we feel good about the condition of our intermodal network as it stands today. We've been working very closely with the customers to make sure that we have a really clear forecast of what's coming towards us.

是的。我想說，我的意思是，我認為你擊中了要害。我看著艾瑞克，我說我們對目前多式聯運網路的狀況感覺良好。我們一直與客戶密切合作，以確保我們對即將發生的事情有一個真正清晰的預測。

We've inserted technology where we can to do that. But yes, these stops and starts out of China, we've got to keep an eye on it because there's going to be another slug of containers that are coming towards us.

我們已經在力所能及的範圍內引入了技術來做到這一點。但是，是的，這些從中國出發和停靠的航班，我們必須密切關注，因為將會有另一批貨櫃朝我們駛來。

And one of our biggest opportunities that we've been leveraging really, for now, almost a full year is we are active members on the White House Working Committee that allows us to interact with all the different stakeholders on the West ports. And what it's providing us is even better transparency into different events that are happening up chain, that it comes down to us. It allows us to understand weeks, sometimes months out, on how do we have to think about resourcing for that. And we'll continue to be active in that because it continues to help the entire industry out in the West Coast.

目前，我們幾乎一整年都在利用的最大機會之一是，我們是白宮工作委員會的活躍成員，這使我們能夠與西港的所有不同利益相關者互動。它為我們提供了對上鍊發生的不同事件更好的透明度，這取決於我們。它使我們能夠了解幾週甚至幾個月後我們必須如何考慮為此提供資源。我們將繼續積極參與其中，因為它繼續幫助西海岸的整個行業擺脫困境。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. So if I had to sum that up, an onslaught of freight would still be difficult to handle, but now you guys have better visibility than you did, let's say, a year ago throughout the system.

好的。因此，如果我必須總結一下，貨運的衝擊仍然很難處理，但現在你們在整個系統中的可見度比一年前更好。

That's fair.

這還算公平。

Yes, absolutely fair.

是的，絕對公平。

Okay. I want to follow up real quick, Lance, getting back to the STB for a second. There was obviously hearings out there on reciprocal switching. I'm not going to make any prognostication on where that's going to go. But just wanted to, in terms of your exposure, in terms of your total business, what percent of your business would be exposed to reciprocal switching if it would come to the U.S.?

好的。我想盡快跟進，蘭斯，回到機上盒。顯然有關於相互轉換的聽證會。我不會對事態發展做出任何預測。但只是想知道，就您的業務而言，就您的總業務而言，如果您的業務來到美國，將面臨相互轉換的風險是多少？

That's hard to nail down and give you a number right now. All I would say is we are concerned and deeply engaged with the STB to help them understand what reciprocal switching, we'll call it forced open access, could do and what it couldn't do. It is not a wholesale remedy to, for instance, remedy fix current supply chain problems, right?

現在很難確定並給你一個數字。我想說的是，我們關心並深入參與機上盒，以幫助他們了解相互切換（我們稱之為強制開放訪問）可以做什麼以及不能做什麼。例如，這不是解決當前供應鏈問題的整體補救措施，對嗎？

What forced open access would do is it would put switching in places where it isn't right now. It would increase dwell time on freight cars. And those are 2 things that we absolutely don't need. Now that's not to say that there can be a circumstance where it might make sense for somebody. And it already does exist in very limited areas where we've agreed with other railroads that a reciprocal switch is needed, or where the STB has mandated it through conditions on previous transactions. So we continue to work with the STB to help them understand our concerns, what -- how it could help, how it couldn't help, and then get to a place where, if there is action taken, it's sensible.

強制開放存取的作用是將切換放在現在不適合的地方。這將增加貨車上的停留時間。這些是我們絕對不需要的兩件事。但這並不是說在某種情況下它可能對某人有意義。它確實已經存在於非常有限的地區，在這些地區，我們已經與其他鐵路公司達成了需要相互轉換的協議，或者 STB 通過先前交易的條件強制要求進行轉換。因此，我們繼續與 STB 合作，幫助他們了解我們的擔憂，並了解它有何幫助、如何無濟於事，然後採取明智的行動。

Our next question is from the line of Ben Nolan, Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自本·諾蘭，斯蒂菲爾。

So I have sort of a two-part question maybe for Kenny. First, on the coal, the ramp-up that you guys have seen has been pretty remarkable, but you talked about higher natural gas prices, incentivizing more. I was curious first what is your ability to sort of continue to toggle up there? And then similarly, what's the ability of your customers to also toggle up?

我有一個由兩部分組成的問題要問肯尼。首先，在煤炭方面，你們所看到的成長非常顯著，但你們談到了天然氣價格上漲，從而激勵了更多人。我首先很好奇你有什麼能力繼續在那裡切換？同樣，您的客戶也有什麼能力進行切換？

And then on the petroleum side. I guess, I'm a little surprised that there's not more volume growth in that market, given how much drilling activity there is and everything else just domestically around the oil and gas side. Maybe a little color on that.

然後是石油方面。我想，考慮到鑽探活動以及國內石油和天然氣的其他一切，該市場的銷量沒有更多增長，我對此感到有點驚訝。也許有一點顏色。

Yes. Thanks a lot, Ben. Yes, on the coal side, again, you've got 2 different things. You've got some business development wins, and you also have the natural gas prices. Certainly, we didn't predict last year that the natural gas prices would be in that $7 range. And as it stands here today, I'll tell you, I -- it's encouraging that, that forecast is throughout the rest of the year.

是的。非常感謝，本。是的，在煤炭方面，同樣有兩種不同的情況。您已經獲得了一些業務發展的勝利，並且還獲得了天然氣價格。當然，我們去年並沒有預測天然氣價格會在 7 美元的範圍內。就今天的情況而言，我會告訴你們，令人鼓舞的是，這項預測將持續到今年剩餘時間。

As we talk to our customers, we don't see that they've made any capital investments, per se, in terms of trying to get more of that out of the ground. But we do know that they have done quite a bit of hiring to get more utility and get more product out. And so we're working with them on that, and we stay very connected with Eric's team from a forecast perspective.

當我們與客戶交談時，我們沒有看到他們本身進行了任何資本投資，試圖從地下獲得更多資金。但我們確實知道他們已經進行了大量的招募以獲得更多的效用並生產更多的產品。因此，我們正在與他們合作，從預測的角度來看，我們與艾瑞克的團隊保持著密切的聯繫。

And then, yes, I understand your perspective with petroleum. And what you should think about is just, a part of that that's not here this year is our crude oil business. And those spreads between Canada and, call it, the Gulf or Texas are just not where it should be. And so that's the impact that you're seeing there.

然後，是的，我理解你對石油的看法。你應該考慮的是，今年不存在的部分是我們的原油業務。加拿大與海灣地區或德克薩斯州之間的價差並不在應有的水平。這就是你所看到的影響。

We do see, to your point, the drilling show up in other commodities. We're seeing a lot of drilling pipe, OCTG, that's moving. I talk about the frac sand. There's some other industrial chemicals that go into the drilling process that we're seeing. So that's where that's showing up on our railroad.

就您而言，我們確實看到鑽探活動出現在其他商品中。我們看到很多鑽桿、OCTG 正在移動。我談論的是壓裂砂。我們看到還有一些其他工業化學品進入鑽井過程。這就是我們鐵路上出現的地方。

And Kenny, in that context, the heat of that market doesn't look like it did the last super strong cycle we had in places like the Permian and the Eagle Ford. There seems to be a little bit more discipline on capital spending, and they're slower in walking up production.

肯尼，在這種情況下，市場的熱度看起來並不像我們在二疊紀和鷹灘等地經歷的最後一個超級強勁週期。資本支出似乎更加嚴格，而且生產速度也較慢。

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeff Kauffman 與 Vertical 的對話。

A lot's been asked about short term and service and short-term disruptions. Kenny, I want to focus a little longer term, really, on 3 things. Number one, given the instability off the West Coast, we've seen a lot of shippers go to the East Coast. So the first part of this is, how do you see that playing out? And what are your customers telling you longer term?

關於短期、服務和短期中斷的問題很多。肯尼，我想從長遠來看，真的，專注在三件事上。第一，鑑於西海岸的不穩定，我們看到許多托運人前往東海岸。因此，第一部分是，您如何看待這種情況的發生？從長遠來看，您的客戶告訴您什麼？

And then secondly, I know Lance was talking about the company's donation to the efforts in Ukraine. But as we talk longer term, are any of your customers approaching you and saying, listen, what's going on out there has changed our ability to move product around the globe. How can Union Pacific help us?

其次，我知道蘭斯正在談論該公​​司對烏克蘭工作的捐款。但當我們談論更長遠的時候，是否有任何客戶接近您並說，聽著，那裡發生的事情改變了我們在全球範圍內運輸產品的能力。聯合太平洋如何幫助我們？

And then the topic of reshoring, which I know hasn't really happened to a large degree yet, but in the long run, I know a lot of customers are rethinking this. So maybe talk about those 3 areas, opportunities, say, over a 2-, 3-, 4-year period for UP.

然後是回流的話題，我知道這在很大程度上還沒有真正發生，但從長遠來看，我知道很多客戶正在重新考慮這一點。因此，也許可以談談 UP 2、3、4 年期間的這 3 個領域和機會。

Yes. It's interesting that you would bring that up on the international intermodal side. It's hard to tell what's going to be a one-off versus a permanent change from, I'll call it, directional shipments of international intermodal. We have worked with an international carrier here where we do have a move that's coming East to West. And so we're excited about that move. And again, we'll see what happens there from a permanent basis. Yes, I believe that some of the global disruptions will make our customers think about where they source from. And we are hearing more conversations about nearshoring. We have not seen those investments to really mirror those conversations.

是的。有趣的是，您會在國際聯運方面提出這個問題。很難說哪些是一次性的，哪些是永久的，我稱之為國際聯運的定向運輸。我們與這裡的國際航空公司合作，確實有從東到西的航班。所以我們對這一舉動感到興奮。再次，我們將永久觀察那裡會發生什麼。是的，我相信一些全球性的混亂會讓我們的客戶思考他們的採購來源。我們聽到更多關於近岸外包的討論。我們還沒有看到這些投資真正反映了這些對話。

And then as you -- I think the last question was about the Ukraine and those thoughts there. We're always talking to our customers about solutions that we can provide them. So when you think about the 6 border access, Mexico is clearly one. I just gave you an example of going from East to West. We still feel very good about our products moving off the West Coast, and we've got really solid relationship from anything that wants to come out of Canada. So we're prepared. We've got $600 million in investment on our intermodal network. So we're prepared for more growth.

然後，作為你，我認為最後一個問題是關於烏克蘭和那裡的那些想法。我們總是與客戶討論我們可以為他們提供的解決方案。因此，當您考慮 6 個邊境通道時，墨西哥顯然是其中之一。我剛才給你舉了一個從東到西的例子。我們仍然對我們的產品離開西海岸感到非常滿意，我們與任何想要離開加拿大的產品建立了非常牢固的關係。所以我們已經準備好了。我們的多式聯運網路投資了 6 億美元。因此，我們已為進一步增長做好準備。

Thank you. Our final question today will come from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

謝謝。我們今天的最後一個問題將來自道明證券 (TD Securities) 的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Just a quick one from me. As we start to move towards peak season, I was just hoping you could talk about the current state of the Chicago Gateway, both in terms of your own terminals but also your interchanges with the other rails, bridge capacity and so forth.

我只是簡單介紹一下。當我們開始走向旺季時，我只是希望您能談談芝加哥門戶的現狀，包括您自己的航站樓，以及與其他鐵路的換乘、橋樑容量等。

Sure. Yes, Cherilyn. So if we look at our -- I'm going to speak specifically to Chicago first, but the same would be true as we look at Memphis and as we look at even New Orleans. Right now, those all remain fluid from an intermodal perspective. That doesn't mean that we don't work through challenges on a day-to-day basis as we work through interchange issues. But we have strong relationships with the other carriers. We work through those issues.

當然。是的，切瑞琳。因此，如果我們看看我們的——我將首先專門談論芝加哥，但當我們看看孟菲斯甚至新奧爾良時，情況也是如此。目前，從多式聯運的角度來看，這些都仍然不穩定。這並不意味著我們在解決交換問題時不會每天應對挑戰。但我們與其他業者有著密切的關係。我們正在努力解決這些問題。

And right now, I'm very happy with where those terminals are. If we were asking about one I'm most focused on, it's just simply New Orleans. And it's always one that we're focused on the most because it's such a tight amount of track and operations in a really small area, but otherwise, no concerns at this point.

現在，我對這些終端的位置非常滿意。如果我們要問我最關注的一個城市，那就是紐奧良。它始終是我們最關注的一個，因為它的賽道和操作非常緊張，而且區域很小，但除此之外，目前無需擔心。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Lance Fritz for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。現在，我將把電話轉回蘭斯·弗里茨 (Lance Fritz) 以徵求結束意見。

All right. Thank you, Rob, and thank you all for engaging with us this morning and for your questions. We're looking forward to talking with you again in July to discuss our second quarter results. Until then, take care.

好的。謝謝你，羅布，也謝謝大家今天早上與我們互動並提出問題。我們期待在 7 月再次與您交談，討論我們的第二季業績。在那之前，要小心。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。女士們、先生們，感謝您的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開線路並度過美好的一天。