聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Union Pacific Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

您好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在 Union Pacific 網站上找到。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President and CEO for Union Pacific. Thank you. Mr. Fritz, you may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹您的東道主，聯合太平洋公司董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Lance Fritz 先生。謝謝你。弗里茨先生，你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, and welcome to Union Pacific's fourth quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Rob，早上好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋公司第四季度財報電話會議。今天和我一起在奧馬哈的是營銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker； Eric Gehringer，運營執行副總裁；和我們的首席財務官 Jennifer Hamann。

As we wrap up 2021, I want to start with a thank you to the Union Pacific team. This past year has been anything but easy as we dealt with massive weather events, wildfires, supply chain congestion and continued impacts from the pandemic. Through all of those challenges, our employees did the hard work necessary to deliver a record financial year. I am so grateful for our team's strength and their determination. They give me confidence that our best days truly lie ahead.

在我們結束 2021 年之際，我首先要感謝聯合太平洋團隊。過去的一年並不容易，因為我們處理了大規模的天氣事件、野火、供應鏈擁堵和大流行的持續影響。通過所有這些挑戰，我們的員工為實現創紀錄的財政年度做出了必要的努力。我非常感謝我們團隊的力量和他們的決心。他們讓我相信，我們最好的日子真的就在前方。

Turning to our fourth quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2021 fourth quarter net income of $1.7 billion or $2.66 per share. This compares to adjusted fourth quarter 2020 results of $1.6 billion or $2.36 per share. You'll note that 2020 reported results included an impairment charge related to our Brazos Yard investment. Our fourth quarter operating ratio of 57.4% deteriorated 180 basis points versus 2020's adjusted OR, largely driven by the headwind from fuel prices.

轉向我們的第四季度業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋報告 2021 年第四季度淨收入為 17 億美元或每股 2.66 美元。相比之下，調整後的 2020 年第四季度業績為 16 億美元或每股 2.36 美元。您會注意到，2020 年報告的結果包括與我們的 Brazos Yard 投資相關的減值費用。與 2020 年調整後的 OR 相比，我們第四季度 57.4% 的營業比率下降了 180 個基點，這主要是受到燃料價格的不利影響。

For the full year, we achieved a record 57.2% operating ratio, an improvement of 130 basis points versus 2020 adjusted results. And as Jennifer will lay out in a few minutes, we're on track to achieve a full year operating ratio that starts with a 55% in 2022. Even with the challenges of the past year, we set fourth quarter and full year records for operating income and net income.

全年，我們實現了創紀錄的 57.2% 的營業比率，與 2020 年調整後的結果相比提高了 130 個基點。正如詹妮弗將在幾分鐘內闡述的那樣，我們有望在 2022 年實現從 55% 開始的全年運營率。即使面臨過去一年的挑戰，我們也創下了第四季度和全年的記錄營業收入和淨利潤。

A comparison to 2019 further demonstrates the achievements of the team over the past 2 years. As you'll hear in greater detail from Eric, our fourth quarter safety and service performance did not meet expectations. I am pleased, however, that as we exit the year, our network is healing. Reflecting back, 2021 was a difficult year in many ways. But through our commitment to PSR and delivering for our customers, we navigated each obstacle and are now better for having dealt with them.

與 2019 年的比較進一步展示了團隊在過去 2 年中取得的成就。正如您將從 Eric 那裡聽到的更詳細信息，我們第四季度的安全和服務表現沒有達到預期。然而，我很高興，當我們結束這一年時，我們的網絡正在恢復。回想起來，2021 年在很多方面都是艱難的一年。但是通過我們對 PSR 的承諾和為我們的客戶提供服務，我們克服了每一個障礙，現在更好地處理了這些障礙。

During 2021, we took significant steps to advance our ESG efforts capped off by the release of our initial Climate Action Plan in December. This plan lays out a framework to achieve our 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and includes a commitment to net zero by 2050, and we are the only U.S. railroad to do so.

2021 年，我們採取了重大措施推進 ESG 工作，最終於 12 月發布了我們的初始氣候行動計劃。該計劃制定了實現我們 2030 年溫室氣體減排目標的框架，並包括到 2050 年實現淨零排放的承諾，我們是唯一一家這樣做的美國鐵路公司。

One element of our plan is reduce overall fuel consumption, and we made continued progress last year. Our full year fuel consumption rate improved 1% for a new record low. This represents the third consecutive year we improved our fuel consumption rate on a year-over-year basis, and it helped our customers eliminate 22.9 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions by using rail versus truck.

我們計劃的一個要素是降低整體油耗，去年我們取得了持續進展。全年燃油消耗率提高 1%，創歷史新低。這是我們連續第三年逐年提高燃料消耗率，它幫助我們的客戶通過使用鐵路而不是卡車減少了 2290 萬公噸的溫室氣體排放。

So let's get started with Kenny for an update on the business environment.

因此，讓我們從 Kenny 開始了解業務環境的最新情況。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. Fourth quarter volume was down 4% compared to a year ago. Gains in our industrial and bulk segments were more than offset by a decline in our premium business group from continued global supply chain disruption. However, freight revenue was up 10% driven by higher fuel surcharges, positive mix and strong pricing gains. Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早上好。與去年同期相比，第四季度的銷量下降了 4%。我們的工業和散裝業務的收益被我們的高端業務集團因全球供應鏈持續中斷而下降所抵消。然而，由於燃油附加費上漲、積極的組合和強勁的定價收益，貨運收入增長了 10%。讓我們仔細看看這些業務組中的每一個。

Starting with bulk, revenue for the quarter was up 16% compared to 2020, driven by a 5% increase in volume and a 10% increase in average revenue per car, reflecting higher fuel surcharges, positive mix and strong core pricing gains. Coal and renewable carloads grew 13% year-over-year. Our efforts to switch customers to index-based contracts are supporting domestic coal demand as a result of higher natural gas prices. The sequential decline was due in part to softer demand from milder weather in the fourth quarter.

從散貨開始，本季度的收入與 2020 年相比增長了 16%，這得益於銷量增長 5% 和每輛車平均收入增長 10%，這反映了更高的燃油附加費、積極的組合和強勁的核心定價收益。煤炭和可再生能源載貨量同比增長 13%。由於天然氣價格上漲，我們將客戶轉向基於指數的合同的努力正在支持國內煤炭需求。環比下降的部分原因是第四季度天氣溫和導致需求疲軟。

The harvest for grain and grain products drove the 15% sequential improvement. However, shipments were down 1% compared to 2020 due to reduced grain export shipments to the Gulf. Weaker grain shipments were partially offset by our business development efforts and strong demand for biofuels. Fertilizer carloads were up 9% year-over-year due to strong agricultural demand and increased export potash shipments.

糧食和糧食產品的收穫推動了 15% 的環比改善。然而，由於對海灣的穀物出口減少，與 2020 年相比，出貨量下降了 1%。我們的業務發展努力和對生物燃料的強勁需求部分抵消了穀物出貨量的疲軟。由於強勁的農業需求和出口鉀肥出貨量增加，化肥載貨量同比增長 9%。

Moving on to industrial. Industrial revenue was -- improved by 14% for the quarter driven by an 8% increase in volume. Average revenue per car also improved 6% primarily driven by higher fuel surcharges and core pricing gains. Energy and specialized shipments were flat compared to 2020. Higher demand for LPG and soda ash was offset by fewer project-related waste shipments and petroleum products. Volume for forest products grew 7% year-over-year primarily driven by demand for brown paper use in corrugated boxes and scrap paper.

轉向工業。在銷量增長 8% 的推動下，本季度工業收入增長了 14%。每輛車的平均收入也增長了 6%，主要是由於燃油附加費增加和核心定價收益。與 2020 年相比，能源和專業運輸量持平。對液化石油氣和純鹼的更高需求被與項目相關的廢物運輸量和石油產品減少所抵消。林產品銷量同比增長 7%，主要受瓦楞紙箱和廢紙使用牛皮紙需求的推動。

Industrial chemicals and plastic shipments were up 6% year-over-year due to strengthening demand and business wins. Metals and minerals volumes continue to be a bright spot. Volume was up 18% compared to 2020 primarily driven by our business development efforts, along with strong steel demand. In addition, demand recovery for construction materials and favorable comps for frac sand contributed to strong year-over-year growth.

由於需求增強和業務贏利，工業化學品和塑料出貨量同比增長 6%。金屬和礦產量仍然是一個亮點。與 2020 年相比，銷量增長了 18%，這主要得益於我們的業務發展努力以及強勁的鋼鐵需求。此外，建築材料的需求復蘇和壓裂砂的有利補償推動了強勁的同比增長。

Turning to premium. Revenue for the quarter was up 1% on a 14% decrease in volume versus 2020. Average revenue per car increased by 17% due to higher fuel surcharge, core pricing gains and a positive mix of traffic. Automotive volume was down 10% in the quarter due to semiconductor-related part shortages and associated plant shutdowns. However, sequentially, we saw a 10% increase versus the third quarter due to improved semiconductor availability.

轉向溢價。本季度收入增長 1%，銷量比 2020 年下降 14%。由於燃油附加費增加、核心定價收益和交通的積極組合，每輛車的平均收入增長了 17%。由於與半導體相關的零件短缺和相關的工廠停工，本季度汽車銷量下降了 10%。然而，由於半導體可用性的提高，我們看到與第三季度相比增長了 10%。

Intermodal volume was down 15% driven by continued international intermodal supply chain disruptions impacting the quarter as ocean carriers and BCO shifted more freight support to port. Sequentially, intermodal volume was down 10% versus the third quarter as global supply chains remain challenged.

由於海運承運人和 BCO 將更多貨運支持轉移到港口，國際多式聯運供應鏈持續中斷影響本季度，多式聯運量下降了 15%。隨後，由於全球供應鏈仍面臨挑戰，多式聯運運輸量與第三季度相比下降了 10%。

Now looking ahead to 2022, here are the economic indicators that correlate closely with our business. You see that industrial production is currently forecasted to grow at 4.8% in 2022. We also recognize that we will face continued challenges in our energy-related markets. But despite those hurdles, we continue to build upon our solid strategy to serve, grow, win together. This strategy enables us to outperform the markets with our reliable service and continued focus on enhancing the customer experience.

現在展望 2022 年，以下是與我們的業務密切相關的經濟指標。您會看到，目前預計 2022 年工業生產將增長 4.8%。我們還認識到，我們將在能源相關市場面臨持續挑戰。但是，儘管存在這些障礙，我們仍將繼續鞏固我們堅實的戰略，共同服務、成長、共贏。這一戰略使我們能夠憑藉可靠的服務和持續專注於提升客戶體驗的表現超越市場。

So as we begin 2022, I'm excited and bullish for the opportunities we have in front of us. For our bulk commodities, we are optimistic about the growth in most of our markets due to favorable market conditions and business development wins. For fertilizer, we anticipate incremental growth with strong market demand and the long-term deal with Canpotex, where we have expanded terminal capacity to handle more volume with longer trains.

因此，在我們開始 2022 年之際，我對擺在我們面前的機會感到興奮和樂觀。對於我們的大宗商品，由於有利的市場條件和業務發展的勝利，我們對大部分市場的增長持樂觀態度。對於化肥，我們預計隨著強勁的市場需求以及與 Canpotex 的長期交易而實現增量增長，我們在 Canpotex 擴大了終端容量，以通過更長的列車處理更多的量。

Coal should see year-over-year growth based on the expectation of continued favorable natural gas prices. Additionally, plant retirements forecasted in 2022 will be offset by 2 new contract wins that started on January 1. For grain, we have tough comps versus 2021 as exports have been strong for the last couple of years. However, in grain products, we are leading the market in biofuel development by securing opportunities on both sides of the house, the inbound feedstocks and the outbound finished biofuels.

基於對天然氣價格持續有利的預期，煤炭應該會出現同比增長。此外，預計 2022 年的工廠退役將被 1 月 1 日開始的 2 份新合同中標所抵消。對於穀物，由於過去幾年出口一直很強勁，我們與 2021 年相比面臨艱難的競爭。然而，在穀物產品方面，我們通過在房屋兩側、進口原料和出口成品生物燃料方面獲得機會，引領生物燃料開發市場。

Moving to our industrial markets. We continue to be encouraged by the strength of the forecast for industrial production. This will positively impact many of our markets like metals. Customer expansions and business development wins will drive growth in our industrial chemicals and plastics commodity groups. However, as we move through the year, we expect lumber shipments to be adversely impacted by the current forecast for housing starts.

轉移到我們的工業市場。我們繼續對工業生產的強勁預測感到鼓舞。這將對我們的許多市場產生積極影響，例如金屬。客戶擴展和業務發展勝利將推動我們工業化學品和塑料商品集團的增長。然而，隨著我們今年的到來，我們預計木材出貨量將受到當前房屋開工預測的不利影響。

And lastly, for premium, we expect strong uplift for both our automotive and intermodal businesses. Automotive sales are forecasted to increase from 15 million units in 2021 to 15.4 million in 2022 due to the vehicle inventory restocking effort. Plus wins to convert finished vehicles and auto part shipments from over the road will further strengthen UP's automotive business.

最後，對於溢價，我們預計我們的汽車和多式聯運業務將出現強勁增長。由於汽車庫存補貨工作，預計汽車銷量將從 2021 年的 1500 萬輛增加到 2022 年的 1540 萬輛。 Plus 贏得改裝整車和汽車零部件運輸的勝利將進一步加強 UP 的汽車業務。

Domestic intermodal will benefit from retail inventory restocking, continued strength in retail sales and tight truck supply. We're seeing slow improvement on our international volumes, but we also remain cognizant of the continued labor shortages that are impacting the global supply chain.

國內多式聯運將受益於零售庫存補充、零售銷售持續強勁和卡車供應緊張。我們看到我們的國際業務量緩慢改善，但我們也意識到持續的勞動力短缺正在影響全球供應鏈。

Setting aside those forces outside of our control, we continue to create our own opportunities to grow. We are focused on expanding our reach into new markets and industries. We're growing our footprint in the Twin Cities and Inland Empire Intermodal terminals. This quarter, we will also have a new product offering with our ag transload site at Global 4, and a nice swift business win that started this month positions us for robust growth in 2022.

撇開那些我們無法控制的力量，我們繼續創造我們自己的成長機會。我們專注於將我們的業務範圍擴展到新的市場和行業。我們正在擴大在雙子城和內陸帝國多式聯運碼頭的足跡。本季度，我們還將在 Global 4 的農業轉運站點上提供新產品，並且從本月開始的快速業務勝利使我們在 2022 年實現強勁增長。

But just to be clear, we're not only investing on the intermodal side, we're making significant investment to support growth on the carload side, too. We've recently purchased 2 transload sites in strong economic growth areas like the Inland Empire and Phoenix. As we forge ahead with our aggressive commercial strategy, we're accelerating growth beyond this year. The future looks bright heading into 2023 as we just announced that UP will be the primary intermodal rail carrier in the West for Schneider. This new business will start up in January 2023.

但需要明確的是，我們不僅在多式聯運方面進行投資，我們也在進行重大投資以支持整車方面的增長。我們最近在內陸帝國和鳳凰城等經濟增長強勁的地區購買了 2 個轉運站點。隨著我們積極推進商業戰略，我們正在加速今年以後的增長。進入 2023 年，前景一片光明，因為我們剛剛宣布 UP 將成為施耐德在西部的主要多式聯運鐵路承運人。這項新業務將於 2023 年 1 月啟動。

I'm proud of our commercial team. They are intensely focused on working with our customers to find creative solutions to win in the marketplace. We are anxious to build upon this momentum and grow with our customers. With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

我為我們的商業團隊感到自豪。他們非常專注於與我們的客戶合作，尋找創造性的解決方案來贏得市場。我們渴望在這一勢頭的基礎上再接再厲，與我們的客戶一起成長。有了這個，我將把它交給 Eric 來審查我們的運營績效。

Thanks, Kenny, and good morning. 2021 proved to be a challenging year operationally as we saw a range of events impact the network from wildfires to supply chain congestion. The team leveraged their collective strengths to find solutions to keep trains moving. We exited the year in a more fluid state, recognizing additional improvement is still imperative.

謝謝，肯尼，早上好。事實證明，2021 年在運營上是充滿挑戰的一年，因為我們看到從野火到供應鏈擁堵等一系列事件影響網絡。該團隊利用他們的集體優勢尋找解決方案以保持火車行駛。我們以更加流暢的狀態結束了這一年，認識到進一步的改進仍然勢在必行。

Taking a look at our key performance metrics for the quarter on Slide 10. Compared to fourth quarter 2020, our operating metrics deteriorated, although we improved most of our metrics sequentially from third quarter. Freight car velocity was impacted by reduced crew availability due to an increase in COVID infections and providing time off for vaccinations. Through reducing our recrew rate, recalling remaining furloughed employees, streamlining processes to onboard crews and increasing crew vaccination rates, our crew availability improved throughout the quarter.

在幻燈片 10 上查看我們本季度的關鍵績效指標。與 2020 年第四季度相比，我們的運營指標有所惡化，儘管我們的大部分指標都比第三季度有所改善。由於 COVID 感染增加和提供疫苗接種時間，導致工作人員可用性減少，這影響了貨車的速度。通過降低我們的複員率、召回剩餘的休假員工、簡化船上船員的流程和提高船員疫苗接種率，我們的船員可用性在整個季度都有所提高。

Our intermodal trip plan compliance of 78% is a decline from last year, however, is a 12-point sequential improvement from third quarter results. This sequential improvement is evidence that our intermodal assets are balanced, and we are poised for growth.

我們的多式聯運計劃合規率為 78%，比去年有所下降，但比第三季度的業績連續提高了 12 個百分點。這種連續的改善證明我們的多式聯運資產是平衡的，我們已準備好實現增長。

Our manifest and auto trip plan compliance results of 58% represented a decline both year-over-year and sequentially. Crew availability had a greater impact on our manifest network. The December manifest and auto trip plan compliance results of 62% indicate we are trending in a positive direction, and we are building on these gains to start the year.

我們的清單和汽車旅行計劃合規結果為 58%，同比和環比均有所下降。船員可用性對我們的清單網絡產生了更大的影響。 12 月份的清單和汽車旅行計劃合規結果為 62%，表明我們正朝著積極的方向發展，我們將在這些收益的基礎上開始新的一年。

Efforts during the quarter focused on the southeastern portion of our network, and we successfully returned manifest operations to a fluid state. Our bulk operations, however, are not currently to a level that meets expectations. We are focused on driving improvement to this network as we did to the manifest network.

本季度的工作集中在我們網絡的東南部，我們成功地將清單操作恢復到流動狀態。然而，我們的大宗業務目前還沒有達到預期的水平。我們專注於推動改進這個網絡，就像我們對清單網絡所做的那樣。

Turning to Slide 11. Our efficiency metrics remained strong in the quarter, although some results were muted by the crew availability and lower volumes. Locomotive productivity declined 9% compared to fourth quarter 2020 due to higher locomotive resources to assist with recovery efforts in the southeastern portion of the network. Fourth quarter record workforce productivity improved 1% to 1,046 daily miles per FTE.

轉到幻燈片 11。我們的效率指標在本季度保持強勁，儘管一些結果因船員可用性和數量減少而減弱。與 2020 年第四季度相比，機車生產率下降了 9%，原因是機車資源增加以協助網絡東南部的恢復工作。第四季度創紀錄的勞動力生產力提高了 1%，達到每 FTE 每天 1,046 英里。

Recognizing the importance of balancing strong crew utilization and planning for the future, we are focused on effectively managing crew levels. We're in the marketplace hiring, although we have been challenged in certain locations. Working with our partners and workforce resources to expand our reach, we are developing creative programs and campaigns like our second chance program to attract new employees to Union Pacific.

認識到平衡強大的船員利用率和未來規劃的重要性，我們專注於有效管理船員水平。我們正在市場招聘，儘管我們在某些地方受到了挑戰。與我們的合作夥伴和勞動力資源合作以擴大我們的影響力，我們正在開發創意計劃和活動，例如我們的第二次機會計劃，以吸引新員工加入聯合太平洋。

Train length increased 2% from a year ago to over 9,300 feet enabled by the completion of 15 sidings during the year. Although our ability to grow train length in the fourth quarter was impeded by lower volumes in the intermodal business, we did deliver train length improvement in other business lines, including a 4% improvement in our manifest train link. Utilizing the strong foundation built with the adoption of PSR, the team is ready to handle the expected growth in this and future years.

由於年內完成了 15 條側線，列車長度比一年前增加了 2%，達到 9,300 英尺以上。儘管我們在第四季度增加列車長度的能力受到多式聯運業務量下降的阻礙，但我們確實在其他業務線中實現了列車長度改進，包括我們的清單列車連接改進了 4%。利用 PSR 的採用所建立的堅實基礎，該團隊已準備好應對今年和未來幾年的預期增長。

Turning to Slide 12. With respect to our capital spending, PSR allows us to efficiently operate the railroad in a less capital-intensive manner. We continue to exercise discipline while still delivering value to our shareholders. Capital spending will remain in line with our long-term guidance of less than 15% of revenue.

轉到幻燈片 12。關於我們的資本支出，PSR 使我們能夠以較低資本密集度的方式有效地運營鐵路。我們繼續遵守紀律，同時仍為股東創造價值。資本支出將繼續符合我們低於收入 15% 的長期指導方針。

For 2022, we are targeting capital spending of $3.3 billion, pending final approval by our Board of Directors. The increase in capital spending is driven by targeted freight car acquisitions, investments and growth-related capital projects to drive more carloads to the network and, finally, slightly higher material and labor inflation cost. Approximately 80% of our planned capital spending will go towards replacement of our existing infrastructure. This spending will renew older assets, harden our infrastructure and allow us to continue to operate safely.

到 2022 年，我們的目標是資本支出 33 億美元，等待董事會的最終批准。資本支出的增加是由有針對性的貨車收購、投資和與增長相關的資本項目推動的，以推動更多的車輛裝載到網絡，最後是材料和勞動力通脹成本略高。我們計劃資本支出的大約 80% 將用於更換我們現有的基礎設施。這筆支出將更新舊資產，加強我們的基礎設施，讓我們能夠繼續安全運營。

We are continuing to support intermodal volume growth, starting with investments in certain ramps to efficiently handle volumes from new and existing intermodal customers, including the Schneider business win that Kenny highlighted. We are also expanding the Twin Cities from a pop-up to a full-scale intermodal terminal and adding additional capacity to the Inland Empire pop-up intermodal terminal.

我們將繼續支持多式聯運運輸量的增長，首先是對某些坡道的投資，以有效處理來自新老多式聯運客戶的運輸量，包括 Kenny 強調的施耐德業務勝利。我們還將雙子城從一個彈出式終端擴展為一個全面的多式聯運終端，並為內陸帝國彈出式多式聯運終端增加額外的容量。

And finally, we will wrap up the multiyear project to install wide span gantry cranes at our G4 intermodal terminal in Chicago, bringing additional capacity to a key intermodal market. We will also continue modernizing our locomotive fleet by upgrading approximately 120 older assets. These modernizations not only improve the reliability of the asset, but each unit is 5% more fuel efficient and emits approximately 53% less carbon emissions.

最後，我們將結束在我們位於芝加哥的 G4 多式聯運碼頭安裝大跨度龍門起重機的多年項目，為關鍵的多式聯運市場帶來更多容量。我們還將通過升級大約 120 台舊資產來繼續現代化我們的機車車隊。這些現代化改造不僅提高了資產的可靠性，而且每個單元的燃油效率提高了 5%，碳排放量減少了約 53%。

Lastly, we will continue to invest in capacity projects that drive productivity and improve our network efficiency. We plan to complete approximately 20 sidings this year focused in the southern portion of our network to further support our train length initiative.

最後，我們將繼續投資於提高生產力和提高網絡效率的容量項目。我們計劃今年完成大約 20 條線路，重點集中在我們網絡的南部，以進一步支持我們的列車長度計劃。

Wrapping up on Slide 13. Entering 2022, we are enhancing our safety programs. We have engaged an external safety partner to focus on advanced risk identification and mitigation, coupled with enriched behavioral safety programs. Our goal is to be the first railroad to reach world-class safety performance as there is nothing more important than making sure every employee returns home safely.

結束幻燈片 13。進入 2022 年，我們正在加強我們的安全計劃。我們聘請了外部安全合作夥伴，專注於高級風險識別和緩解，以及豐富的行為安全計劃。我們的目標是成為第一條達到世界級安全績效的鐵路，因為沒有什麼比確保每位員工安全回家更重要的了。

With the robust market demand and strong volume outlook Kenny described, I have complete confidence that the operating team will be able to safely meet the growth needs of our customers. The operating team is focused on continuous performance improvement of the railroad to drive customer-centric growth while remaining judicious in our allocation of resources.

憑藉 Kenny 所描述的強勁市場需求和強勁的銷量前景，我完全相信運營團隊將能夠安全地滿足客戶的增長需求。運營團隊專注於鐵路的持續績效改進，以推動以客戶為中心的增長，同時在資源分配方面保持明智。

While 2021 did not always bring optimal operating conditions, by working together and remaining agile, we answered each challenge and laid a foundation for continued success this year and beyond. With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

雖然 2021 年並不總是帶來最佳的運營條件，但通過共同努力和保持敏捷，我們應對了每一個挑戰，並為今年及以後的持續成功奠定了基礎。有了這個，我將把它交給詹妮弗來審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. Starting off with the income statement on Slide 15, where, as Lance mentioned earlier, we've adjusted 2020 results to exclude the Brazos impairment charge. Throughout my remarks today, I will be comparing 2021 to 2020 adjusted results.

謝謝，埃里克，早上好。從幻燈片 15 的損益表開始，正如 Lance 之前提到的，我們調整了 2020 年的業績以排除 Brazos 減值費用。在我今天的講話中，我將比較 2021 年和 2020 年的調整結果。

Operating revenue in the quarter totaled $5.7 billion, up 12% versus 2020 despite a 4% year-over-year volume decline. Operating expense increased 15% to $3.3 billion. I'll provide more detail in a moment, but excluding the impact of higher fuel prices, expenses were up 7% in the quarter.

儘管銷量同比下降 4%，但本季度的營業收入總計 57 億美元，與 2020 年相比增長 12%。運營費用增長 15% 至 33 億美元。我稍後會提供更多細節，但不包括燃油價格上漲的影響，本季度的費用增長了 7%。

Together, we are reporting record fourth quarter operating income of $2.4 billion, a 7% increase versus 2020. Other income of $83 million is up 26% driven by a $36 million gain on the sale of a technology investment. Interest expense was up 6% as increased average debt levels were partially offset by a lower effective interest rate.

我們共同報告了創紀錄的第四季度營業收入 24 億美元，比 2020 年增長 7%。其他收入 8,300 萬美元，增長 26%，這是由於出售一項技術投資獲得了 3,600 萬美元的收益。由於平均債務水平的增加被較低的實際利率部分抵消，利息支出增加了 6%。

Net income of $1.7 billion increased 8%, which, when combined with our strong share repurchase program, led to a 13% increase in earnings per share to $2.66. Our 57.4% fourth quarter operating ratio increased 180 basis points, reflecting 100 basis point negative impact of higher fuel prices as well as reduced operational efficiency.

17 億美元的淨收入增長了 8%，再加上我們強大的股票回購計劃，每股收益增長了 13%，達到 2.66 美元。我們 57.4% 的第四季度運營比率增加了 180 個基點，反映了燃油價格上漲以及運營效率降低帶來的 100 個基點的負面影響。

As we did throughout 2021, we're also comparing our results to 2019. Against that fourth quarter comparison, we generated 16% higher operating income on 1% less volume, clearly demonstrating the ongoing price discipline and operational efficiency we've achieved over the past 2 years.

正如我們在整個 2021 年所做的那樣，我們還將我們的業績與 2019 年進行了比較。與第四季度的比較相比，我們在減少 1% 的銷量的情況下實現了 16% 的營業收入增長，這清楚地表明了我們在過去 2 年。

Looking more closely at fourth quarter revenue, Slide 16 provides a breakdown of our freight revenue, which totaled $5.3 billion in the fourth quarter, up 10% compared to 2020. Volume was down 400 basis points, driven by the factors Kenny described earlier. Positive business mix, coupled with the strong pricing actions that yielded dollars exceeding our inflation drove 725 basis points in total improvement. Lower intermodal volume, combined with higher industrial shipments drove the positive mix. Fuel surcharge revenue of $522 million increased freight revenue 700 basis points as our fuel surcharge programs continue to chase rising fuel prices.

更仔細地觀察第四季度的收入，幻燈片 16 提供了我們貨運收入的明細，第四季度的貨運收入總額為 53 億美元，與 2020 年相比增長 10%。由於肯尼之前描述的因素，貨運量下降了 400 個基點。積極的業務組合，加上強勁的定價行動使美元收益超過我們的通貨膨脹，推動了 725 個基點的總體改善。較低的多式聯運量，加上較高的工業出貨量推動了積極的組合。 5.22 億美元的燃油附加費收入使貨運收入增加了 700 個基點，因為我們的燃油附加費計劃繼續追趕不斷上漲的燃油價格。

Now let's move on to Slide 17, which provides a summary of our fourth quarter operating expenses. As I just mentioned, the primary driver of the increase was fuel expense, up 80% as a result of a 74% increase in fuel prices. Our fuel consumption rate was flat compared to 2020 as the favorable business mix was offset by negative productivity.

現在讓我們轉到幻燈片 17，它提供了我們第四季度運營費用的摘要。正如我剛才提到的，增長的主要驅動力是燃料費用，由於燃料價格上漲了 74%，燃料費用上漲了 80%。與 2020 年相比，我們的燃料消耗率持平，因為有利的業務組合被負生產力所抵消。

Looking further at the expense lines, compensation and benefits expense was up 5% versus 2020. Fourth quarter workforce levels increased 1% as flat management, engineering and mechanical workforces were offset by 3% growth in our train and engine crews. This increase reflects our actions to recall furloughed employees as well as bring on new hires to manage utilization challenges and, importantly, in preparation for growth.

進一步看費用項目，薪酬和福利費用比 2020 年增長 5%。第四季度勞動力水平增長 1%，因為扁平的管理、工程和機械勞動力被我們的火車和發動機人員增長 3% 所抵消。這一增長反映了我們召回休假員工以及招募新員工以應對利用挑戰的行動，更重要的是，為增長做準備。

Cost per employee increased 4% as a result of wage inflation as well as higher recrew, overtime and borrow-out costs, partially offset by last year's $37 million employee COVID bonus. Purchased services and materials expense was up 9%, in part due to the comparison to favorable interline settlements in 2020 as well as increased locomotive maintenance, crew van usage and purchase transportation.

由於工資上漲以及新員工、加班和借出成本增加，每位員工的成本增加了 4%，這部分被去年 3700 萬美元的員工 COVID 獎金所抵消。購買的服務和材料費用增長了 9%，部分原因是與 2020 年有利的聯運結算相比，以及機車維護、機組貨車使用和購買運輸的增加。

Equipment and other rents was up 5%, driven by lower TTX equity income. Other expense increased 29% in the quarter, driven by higher personal injury expense associated primarily with 2 adverse outcomes, as well as increased freight loss and damage, and state and local taxes. As we look to 2022, overall workforce levels are expected to increase with volume, although not 1 for 1 as we continue to drive productivity. Cost per employee in 2022 should increase in the low single digits as productivity partially offsets inflation.

受 TTX 股權收入下降的推動，設備和其他租金上漲 5%。其他費用在本季度增長了 29%，主要是由於與 2 項不利結果相關的人身傷害費用增加，以及貨運損失和損壞以及州和地方稅收增加。展望 2022 年，總體勞動力水平預計將隨著數量的增加而增加，儘管隨著我們繼續提高生產力，但不是一對一。由於生產力部分抵消了通貨膨脹，2022 年每位員工的成本應該會以低個位數增長。

Depreciation expense will be up around 2% versus 2021, while we expect the other expense line to be relatively flat year-over-year. Purchased services and materials expense is a bit more of a wild card, but will be impacted by inflationary pressure as well as the expected recovery in [other] volumes. Finally, we expect our annual effective tax rate to be around 24%.

與 2021 年相比，折舊費用將增加約 2%，而我們預計其他費用項將與去年同期相比相對持平。購買的服務和材料費用更像是一張外卡，但會受到通貨膨脹壓力以及[其他]數量的預期復甦的影響。最後，我們預計我們的年度有效稅率約為 24%。

Looking now at our efficiency results on Slide 18. We took a step back in the quarter and did not meet our original or revised productivity targets, finishing the year with $195 million of net productivity. Higher casualty expenses, increased costs associated with network operations and reduced volume leverage cumulatively drove the productivity loss.

現在看看我們在幻燈片 18 上的效率結果。我們在本季度退了一步，沒有達到我們最初或修改後的生產力目標，以 1.95 億美元的淨生產力結束了這一年。更高的傷亡費用、與網絡運營相關的成本增加以及數量槓桿的降低，共同推動了生產力損失。

For the full year, we achieved improvements in all areas led by locomotive and workforce productivity initiatives. These gains were partially offset by roughly $55 million of weather and incident-related headwinds in 2021. While these results are clearly not what we expect of ourselves, we view the productivity as deferred, not lost.

全年，我們在以機車和勞動力生產力計劃為主導的所有領域都取得了進步。這些收益被 2021 年約 5500 萬美元的天氣和事件相關逆風部分抵消。雖然這些結果顯然不是我們對自己的期望，但我們認為生產力是延遲的，而不是損失的。

Similarly, fourth quarter incremental margins were muted at 27%. For the full year, our 77% incremental margins are more indicative of our capabilities, particularly given the positive business mix in 2021. The ability to efficiently add volume to our network is the foundation for delivering strong shareholder value going forward.

同樣，第四季度的增量利潤率為 27%。全年，我們 77% 的增量利潤率更能體現我們的能力，特別是考慮到 2021 年的積極業務組合。有效增加我們網絡的業務量的能力是未來提供強大股東價值的基礎。

Moving to Slide 19. We'll review full quarter -- excuse me, full year 2021 with earnings per share of $9.95, a 21% increase versus adjusted 2020 results. Revenue was up 12% on 4% volume growth, increased fuel surcharges, strong pricing gains and a positive business mix. Record operating income increased 15% to $9.3 billion.

轉到幻燈片 19。我們將回顧整個季度——對不起，2021 年全年，每股收益為 9.95 美元，與調整後的 2020 年業績相比增長 21%。收入增長 12%，主要得益於 4% 的銷量增長、燃油附加費增加、強勁的定價收益和積極的業務組合。創紀錄的營業收入增長了 15%，達到 93 億美元。

Even with a 140 basis point headwind from rising fuel prices, our full year operating ratio of 57.2% improved 130 basis points versus adjusted 2020. Our improvement in 2021 marks the fifth consecutive year of operating ratio gains for Union Pacific, demonstrating our ability to drive efficiency even during a difficult year. And a further comparison of our results to 2019 shows that the hurdles of the past 2 years has not slowed our momentum.

即使燃料價格上漲帶來 140 個基點的逆風，我們 57.2% 的全年運營比率與調整後的 2020 年相比提高了 130 個基點。我們在 2021 年的改善標誌著聯合太平洋的運營比率連續第五年增長，表明我們有能力推動即使在困難的一年也能提高效率。我們的結果與 2019 年的進一步比較表明，過去 2 年的障礙並沒有減緩我們的發展勢頭。

Turning now to cash and returns on Slide 20. Full year cash from operations increased approximately $500 million to $9 billion, a 6% increase from 2020. The first priority for our cash is our capital investment, which finished 2021 just over $3 billion or roughly 14% of revenue. Our cash flow conversion rate was a strong 93%, and free cash flow after dividends increased $285 million or 9% compared to 2020.

現在轉向幻燈片 20 上的現金和回報。全年運營現金增加了約 5 億美元，達到 90 億美元，比 2020 年增長 6%。我們現金的首要任務是我們的資本投資，到 2021 年結束時略高於 30 億美元或大約收入的 14%。我們的現金流轉換率高達 93%，與 2020 年相比，股息後的自由現金流增加了 2.85 億美元或 9%。

Our dividend payout ratio for 2021 was 43%, in line with our 45% target as we rewarded shareholders with two 10% dividend increases during the year, distributing a total of $2.8 billion to shareholders. We also returned cash to our owners through strong share repurchases, buying back a total of 33 million common shares or 3% at an all-in cost of $7.3 billion, which includes $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter. In total, between dividends and share repurchases, we returned $10.1 billion to our owners in 2021, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to deliver significant shareholder value.

我們 2021 年的股息支付率為 43%，符合我們 45% 的目標，因為我們在年內兩次增加了 10% 的股息，向股東分配了總計 28 億美元的股息。我們還通過強勁的股票回購向我們的所有者返還現金，以 73 億美元的總成本回購了 3300 萬股普通股或 3%，其中包括第四季度的 14 億美元。總的來說，在股息和股票回購之間，我們在 2021 年向我們的所有者返還了 101 億美元，這表明我們持續致力於為股東創造巨大價值。

Now looking at the strength of our balance sheet on Slide 21. We finished the year at an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.7x, consistent with our resolve to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings. At year-end, our Moody's rating was Baa1 and A- from both S&P and Fitch. Our all-in adjusted debt balance on December 31 of $31 billion increased over $2 billion from year-end 2020 as we continue to utilize our strong balance sheet and earnings growth to reward shareholders.

現在看看幻燈片 21 上我們的資產負債表的實力。我們以 2.7 倍的調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率結束了這一年，這與我們維持強勁投資級信用評級的決心一致。到年底，我們的穆迪評級為 Baa1 和標準普爾和惠譽的 A-。隨著我們繼續利用強勁的資產負債表和盈利增長來獎勵股東，我們在 12 月 31 日的全部調整後債務餘額為 310 億美元，比 2020 年底增加了 20 億美元。

Finally, our return on invested capital came in at a record 16.4%, bouncing back more than 2 points from a challenging 2020 and increased 1.4 points from 2019. The reduced capital intensity associated with running a PSR operation is seen clearly in this performance and positions us for growth in the years ahead.

最後，我們的投資資本回報率達到創紀錄的 16.4%，從充滿挑戰的 2020 年反彈超過 2 個百分點，比 2019 年增加 1.4 個百分點。從這一業績和職位中可以清楚地看出，與開展 PSR 業務相關的資本密集度降低我們在未來幾年的增長。

So wrapping up with a look to 2022 on Slide 22, let me start by pointing you back to our May Investor Day and the 3-year targets we laid out. Those targets remain intact and are the building blocks of our view to 2022. With volumes, we stated we would outpace industrial production through our business development efforts, which are going strong. As Kenny mentioned, the current forecast for 2022 industrial production is 4.8%. To outperform that forecast, we have new business wins like Knight-Swift, as well as the anticipated recovery of autos and international intermodal.

因此，在幻燈片 22 中展望 2022 年，讓我首先向您介紹我們的 5 月投資者日和我們制定的 3 年目標。這些目標保持不變，是我們到 2022 年展望的基石。我們表示，我們將通過我們正在強勁的業務發展努力超過工業生產。正如肯尼所說，目前對 2022 年工業生產的預測為 4.8%。為了超越該預測，我們獲得了 Knight-Swift 等新業務的勝利，以及汽車和國際多式聯運的預期復蘇。

We also expect to have the added benefit of coal volume growth. As you'll recall, we originally anticipated coal to be a 0.5 point headwind over the next 3 years. But with current natural gas prices and recent business wins, that business should actually provide a tailwind in 2022.

我們還預計煤炭量增長帶來的額外好處。您還記得，我們最初預計煤炭在未來 3 年將成為 0.5 個百分點的逆風。但鑑於目前的天然氣價格和最近的業務勝利，該業務實際上應該在 2022 年提供順風。

Looking at the cadence of volumes through the year, the first half should be led by bulk and industrial. In the second half, we look for stronger year-over-year gains and for it to be more premium-driven as supply chains and ship shortages improve. For first quarter volumes, specifically, we're anticipating carloads will track below full year 2022 growth expectations as we experienced a muted post-holiday rebound likely impacted by rising COVID infection rates plus continued soft international intermodal volumes.

從全年成交量的節奏來看，上半年應該由散裝和工業主導。下半年，隨著供應鍊和船舶短缺的改善，我們期待更強勁的同比增長，以及更多的溢價驅動。具體而言，對於第一季度的貨運量，我們預計貨運量將低於 2022 年全年的增長預期，因為我們經歷了節後的溫和反彈，這可能受到 COVID 感染率上升以及國際多式聯運貨運量持續疲軟的影響。

With a strong overall demand environment and our disciplined pricing approach, we expect to yield pricing dollars in excess of inflation dollars. Embedded in that guidance is our expectation that all-in inflation for the year will be elevated a little north of 3%.

憑藉強勁的整體需求環境和我們嚴謹的定價方法，我們預計將產生超過通脹美元的定價美元。該指引中包含我們的預期，即今年的綜合通脹率將略高於 3%。

At our Investor Day, we targeted incremental margins in the mid- to upper 60% range. For 2022, we would expect to be at the low end of that range given the significant mix shift to intermodal growth. The combination of growing volumes, pricing above inflation and strong incremental margins should lead to the achievement of our long-term goal of a 55% operating ratio. Putting a little finer point to it, we would expect to achieve around a 55.5% operating ratio for full year 2022.

在我們的投資者日，我們的目標是增加利潤率在 60% 的中上端範圍內。鑑於向多式聯運增長的重大轉變，我們預計 2022 年將處於該範圍的低端。不斷增長的銷量、高於通脹的定價和強勁的增量利潤率相結合，應該會導致我們實現 55% 的運營比率的長期目標。更精細一點，我們預計 2022 年全年的運營率將達到 55.5% 左右。

Turning to cash and capital. You heard our plan to invest around $3.3 billion of capital for the year, well within our long-term guidance of less than 15% of revenue. Strong top line growth, increasing profitability and ongoing capital discipline should result in a cash conversion rate near 100%. This strong cash generation allows us to continue rewarding our owners with an industry-leading dividend payout and strong share repurchases, which we expect will be in line with 2021 levels.

轉向現金和資本。您聽說我們計劃在今年投資約 33 億美元的資金，這完全符合我們低於收入 15% 的長期指導方針。強勁的收入增長、不斷提高的盈利能力和持續的資本紀律應該會導致現金轉換率接近 100%。這種強勁的現金產生使我們能夠繼續以行業領先的股息支付和強勁的股票回購來回報我們的所有者，我們預計這將與 2021 年的水平保持一致。

Before I turn it back to Lance to wrap up, I'd like to express my appreciation to the Union Pacific team. What they achieved over the past year is truly remarkable. Union Pacific's success begins and ends with our people. So with that, I'll turn it back to Lance.

在我把它交給蘭斯結束之前，我想對聯合太平洋團隊表示感謝。他們在過去一年中取得的成就著實令人矚目。 Union Pacific 的成功始於我們的員工，也始於我們的員工。因此，我將把它轉回給 Lance。

Thank you, Jennifer, Wrapping up on Slide 24 with a look at our drivers for success in 2022. As you heard from Eric, it's imperative that we make progress on safety. While there are positive signs in the underlying metrics, the overall results need to improve. Safety is at the center of everything we do at Union Pacific as we strive toward our goal of world-class performance.

謝謝你，詹妮弗，結束幻燈片 24，看看我們在 2022 年取得成功的驅動因素。正如你從 Eric 那裡聽到的，我們必須在安全方面取得進展。雖然基本指標有積極跡象，但總體結果需要改善。安全是我們在聯合太平洋所做的一切工作的核心，我們努力實現世界級性能的目標。

Overall, the network is improving but with work to be done. We have work streams aimed at keeping a healthy pipeline of crews in place, and we're in the marketplace hiring for growth. In addition, we have numerous initiatives to improve the quality of our service. Our long-term growth opportunities are dependent on a reliable service product.

總體而言，網絡正在改善，但仍有工作要做。我們的工作流程旨在保持健康的員工隊伍到位，我們正在市場招聘以促進增長。此外，我們還採取了許多措施來提高我們的服務質量。我們的長期增長機會取決於可靠的服務產品。

As you heard from Kenny, our growth outlook for 2022 is terrific. The growth mentality we're instilling on the entire team is manifesting itself in new customer wins while we continue to build stronger books with our long-term partners. We have an opportunity to offer an enhanced customer experience and new transportation solutions for our customers while helping them achieve their sustainability goals.

正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的，我們對 2022 年的增長前景非常好。我們向整個團隊灌輸的成長心態正在新客戶的勝利中體現出來，同時我們繼續與我們的長期合作夥伴建立更強大的書籍。我們有機會為客戶提供增強的客戶體驗和新的運輸解決方案，同時幫助他們實現可持續發展目標。

2021 represented another milestone in our company's history and 2022 is poised to be even better. We'll be celebrating our 160th anniversary with what we expect to be our best financial year ever and take further steps on our ESG journey. We have great momentum as we strive for operational excellence, grow with our customers and as we win together with all of our stakeholders. So with that, let's open up the line for you questions.

2021 年是我們公司歷史上的又一個里程碑，2022 年勢必會變得更好。我們將慶祝我們成立 160 週年，我們預計這將是我們有史以來最好的財政年度，並在我們的 ESG 旅程上採取進一步措施。我們在追求卓越運營、與客戶共同成長以及與所有利益相關者共贏時，勢頭強勁。因此，讓我們為您打開問題的線。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe we can start on the volume outlook and I think the expectation to grow above industrial production. I guess, Jennifer, you talked a little bit about the cadence maybe being a little bit softer on the first half and accelerating into the second half. I guess maybe a couple of questions here. I guess, first, first quarter, do you think you can end up having volumes up in the quarter?

也許我們可以從數量前景開始，我認為預期會超過工業生產。我想，詹妮弗，你談到了節奏可能在上半場稍微柔和一點，然後加速到下半場。我想這裡可能有幾個問題。我想，第一，第一季度，你認為你最終能在這個季度增加銷量嗎？

And then in terms of some of the business wins and the other opportunities out there, do you think that is enough to be able to see that acceleration? I think over the last couple of quarters, we've been a little bit disappointed in general across the rail industry of the ability to grow volume at a more accelerated pace. Just wanted to get a little bit color on sort of how you think about the building blocks to get to that sort of 4.8% or better for the full year.

然後就一些業務勝利和其他機會而言，您認為這足以看到這種加速嗎？我認為在過去的幾個季度中，我們對鐵路行業能夠以更快的速度增長的能力總體上有點失望。只是想稍微了解一下您如何看待構建模塊以達到全年 4.8% 或更好的水平。

Yes, I'll start and then turn it over to Kenny. But you're thinking of it right, Chris, and we do expect our volumes to grow in the first quarter. But again, we see it kind of -- and you weigh it out first half, second half. First half is going to be led by bulk and industrial. We certainly embedded in the expectation for stronger growth in the second half is the recovery in the supply chains, and that includes the chip shortages. So that is our expectation for the year and we feel very bullish about that. And I'll let Kenny talk to you about that a little bit more.

是的，我會開始，然後把它交給肯尼。但是你想得對，克里斯，我們確實預計我們的銷量會在第一季度增長。但是，我們再次看到它——你在上半場、下半場權衡。上半年將由散裝和工業主導。我們當然認為下半年強勁增長的預期是供應鏈的複蘇，其中包括芯片短缺。所以這是我們對這一年的期望，我們對此感到非常樂觀。我會讓肯尼多和你談談。

Yes, Chris, we're seeing -- [and it's pretty slow] here, we're seeing slow marginal growth from where we were in the fourth quarter until now on our international intermodal volumes. And so we're looking at that every day, I'll tell you that. Same is true about the automotive business, and I talked about the fact that sequentially from third to fourth quarter we saw that 10% improvement. We're expecting that to increase, and that's what you're seeing in the back half of the year. We also feel good about a couple of business wins on the coal side that will help us from a carload perspective.

是的，克里斯，我們在這裡看到 - [而且非常緩慢]，我們看到從第四季度到現在的國際多式聯運量的邊際增長緩慢。所以我們每天都在看這個，我會告訴你的。汽車業務也是如此，我談到了這樣一個事實，即從第三季度到第四季度，我們看到了 10% 的改進。我們預計這一數字會增加，這就是您在今年下半年看到的情況。我們也對煤炭方面的幾項業務勝利感到滿意，這將從整車的角度為我們提供幫助。

The next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 Cowen。

Wanted to focus a little bit on the outlook in the supply chain congestion. What happens if the congestion doesn't recover as quickly as possible? Where should we see some of the impacts? And sort of what markers are you looking for on the supply chain as you go to adjust the outlook potentially as we move throughout the year?

想稍微關註一下供應鏈擁堵的前景。如果擁堵沒有盡快恢復會怎樣？我們應該在哪裡看到一些影響？隨著我們全年的行動，當您調整前景時，您在供應鏈上尋找什麼標誌？

Yes, Jason, this is Lance. We built the 2022 plan now on perfection, right? So we've kind of built into the plan an expectation that, for instance, in the international intermodal supply chain, there's slow but steady recovery. Some of the markers that we're looking at that need to recover to be back to normal and fluid still involve street time for things like chassis and boxes. Our intermodal ramps are fluid right now, they're in great shape. We need to see our international intermodal customers go back to more IPI business that is allowing the international box to go inland and then turn back around preferably within export. I'll turn it over to Kenny and Eric for a little more detail.

是的，傑森，這是蘭斯。我們現在完美地制定了 2022 年計劃，對吧？因此，我們在計劃中加入了一種預期，例如，在國際多式聯運供應鏈中，會有緩慢但穩定的複蘇。我們正在研究的一些需要恢復才能恢復正常和流暢的標記仍然涉及底盤和盒子等物品的上街時間。我們的聯運坡道現在很流暢，狀態很好。我們需要看到我們的國際多式聯運客戶回到更多的 IPI 業務，允許國際箱子進入內陸，然後最好在出口中轉回。我會把它交給肯尼和埃里克了解更多細節。

Yes, Lance, you hit it right it on the head. I mean we're talking to our customers daily about that conversion from port to port to the inland ramps that we have. We have seen that, that is slowly occurring. Now remember, we've got a backlog of ships out there on the water, so that's got to get sorted out. The same thing we're going to be keeping an eye on is the -- at a lot of these inland ramps, how the warehouses are doing and they able to process a lot of that business that's coming on. So it's going to be a slow, gradual increase to us. But we're talking to our customers and we expect more improvement as we go throughout the year.

是的，蘭斯，你正中它的頭。我的意思是，我們每天都在與客戶討論從港口到港口到我們擁有的內陸坡道的轉換。我們已經看到，這正在慢慢發生。現在請記住，我們在水上積壓了大量船隻，所以必須解決這個問題。我們將要關注的同一件事是 - 在許多這些內陸坡道上，倉庫的運作方式以及他們能夠處理大量即將發生的業務。所以這對我們來說將是一個緩慢的、逐漸的增長。但是我們正在與我們的客戶交談，並且我們期望在全年進行更多改進。

And I think it's important, Jason, to just reflect on this year and what happened with the premium volumes in the second half of the year, they were softer. And so we're certainly looking for that to be stronger in the back half of 2022.

我認為重要的是，傑森，回顧一下今年以及下半年保費銷量的情況，它們變得更加疲軟。因此，我們當然希望在 2022 年下半年變得更強大。

Well, I got my fingers crossed for you guys. My follow-up is going to be on pricing. You mentioned, Jennifer, I think that you're going to be above inflation which you're putting around 3%. Talk to me a little bit about the contracts that you're repricing now and sort of how well above your cost inflation are the new contracts versus your base business?

好吧，我為你們祈禱。我的後續行動將是定價。你提到過，詹妮弗，我認為你將超過你提出的 3% 左右的通貨膨脹率。和我談談您現在正在重新定價的合同，以及新合同與您的基礎業務相比，您的成本膨脹程度有多高？

I'll take that, Jennifer. We've got a favorable pricing environment. I'm going to talk about, call it, our domestic intermodal business that were about 10%, 15% in on a lot of the bids that we're looking at. And again, it's a favorable pricing environment, we'll have to see how that plays out in the second half of the year. Right now, it looks good, but we're going to be looking at it quarter by quarter. But great environment to be [repricing]...

我會接受的，詹妮弗。我們有一個有利的定價環境。我將談論，稱之為，我們的國內多式聯運業務，在我們正在考慮的許多投標中佔大約 10%、15%。再說一次，這是一個有利的定價環境，我們必須看看下半年的情況如何。現在，它看起來不錯，但我們將一個季度一個季度地查看它。但是[重新定價]的良好環境......

A clarification there, Kenny. When you said we're 10% or 15% in, you're talking about the total number of bids that are going to be occurring.

有一個澄清，肯尼。當您說我們參與 10% 或 15% 時，您指的是即將發生的投標總數。

Total number of bids that we're looking at.

我們正在查看的出價總數。

Right.

正確的。

Yes. And then just to clarify -- and Jason, I know you know this, but when we talk about pricing above inflation, it's in dollars. So we expect to yield pricing dollars in excess of our inflation dollars.

是的。然後澄清一下——傑森，我知道你知道這一點，但是當我們談論高於通脹的定價時，它是以美元為單位的。因此，我們預計會產生超過通脹美元的定價美元。

Our next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Kenny, I wanted to ask about some of these new business wins in intermodal, which is obviously a credit to you and the whole team. I know this has been a focus for you guys for a while now. These new IMCs that are coming online obviously have assets behind them, and I'm just trying to understand if that represents a mix of opportunities for the company within intermodal. And obviously, you participate in pools, and as a result, you -- I think you guys have a higher degree of asset-light channel partners in your direct competitor. So if you can just talk about the kind of the mix within mix, but with mix within intermodal as this new business comes online over the next couple of years, this year or next year.

肯尼，我想問一下在多式聯運方面取得的一些新業務，這顯然是對你和整個團隊的功勞。我知道這一直是你們關注的焦點。這些即將上線的新 IMC 顯然背後有資產，我只是想了解這是否代表了公司在多式聯運中的各種機會。顯然，你參與了資金池，因此，你——我認為你們在直接競爭對手中擁有更高程度的輕資產渠道合作夥伴。因此，如果您可以只談論混合中的混合，但隨著這項新業務在未來幾年（今年或明年）上線，多式聯運中的混合。

Yes. First of all, before I get to the new players, we feel really good about our long-term partner and we look at them as an industry leader. Clearly, we're bringing on Knight-Swift this year. They're a strong industry leader. And then in the future, we'll bring on Schneider. We look at that as a great value to the BCO. We believe that that's going to give us and them a lot of optionality to grow. Clearly, that's the impetus there, to offer more options. It's going to also give Eric an opportunity densify a lot of networks and really execute on a lot of intermodal excellent initiatives that he has.

是的。首先，在我接觸新玩家之前，我們對我們的長期合作夥伴感覺非常好，我們將他們視為行業領導者。顯然，我們今年將推出 Knight-Swift。他們是強大的行業領導者。然後在未來，我們將引入施耐德。我們認為這對 BCO 很有價值。我們相信這將為我們和他們提供很多成長的選擇。顯然，這就是提供更多選擇的動力。這也將給 Eric 一個機會，使許多網絡更加緊密，並真正執行他擁有的許多多式聯運的優秀舉措。

As we look at our own IMCs that we have out there and our own equipment, you know that we're doubling down on investing there. So we've invested in almost 6,000 chassis. We're bringing on GPS. So we feel like we've got a great mixture to offer both private asset players that are on our network and also the ones that will be utilizing our equipment.

當我們查看我們自己的 IMC 和我們自己的設備時，你知道我們正在加倍投資那裡。因此，我們投資了近 6,000 個機箱。我們正在使用 GPS。所以我們覺得我們有一個很好的組合，既可以提供我們網絡上的私人資產玩家，也可以提供那些將使用我們設備的人。

Okay. And then just for my follow-up, Jennifer, you haven't got an incremental margin or OR question yet, so I know you're waiting for that. I wanted to circle back on the 55.5% OR guidance for this year. I'm just trying to understand the puts and takes there. Because on one hand, you've got a great pricing opportunity ahead of you, it's showing up in the yield and I would assume more so over the course of 2022. But you also have these large new business wins on the intermodal side, which has less revenue intensity attached to it.

好的。然後只是為了我的後續行動，詹妮弗，你還沒有增加保證金或 OR 問題，所以我知道你正在等待。我想回顧一下今年 55.5% 的 OR 指導值。我只是想了解那裡的看跌期權。因為一方面，你有一個很好的定價機會擺在你面前，它會體現在收益中，我認為在 2022 年期間會更多。但你在多式聯運方面也獲得了這些巨大的新業務勝利，這與之相關的收入強度較低。

So I'm just trying to understand if you could talk about some of the puts and takes that underlie the margin guidance for 2022. And would you kind of characterize it as conservative given the pricing opportunity? Or is it kind of well balanced between pricing and mix as you see the year playing out?

因此，我只是想了解您是否可以談論一些看跌期權並將其作為 2022 年利潤率指導的基礎。考慮到定價機會，您是否會將其描述為保守？或者，正如你所看到的那樣，定價和組合之間是否平衡得很好？

Yes, Amit. Thanks for that, and I knew I could count on you for the margin question. But we feel very bullish about our opportunities in 2022 and feel very good about being able to hit that long-established operating ratio target of the 55%, and 55.5% obviously is right smack dab in the middle of that fairway.

是的，阿米特。謝謝你，我知道在保證金問題上我可以指望你。但我們對我們在 2022 年的機會感到非常樂觀，並且對能夠實現 55% 的長期運營比率目標感到非常高興，而 55.5% 顯然是在那個球道中間的輕拍。

There will be cost pressures, we know that, higher inflationary environment. We know that we need to bring on some more employees. And so you're going to see our head count go up a little bit, not at a 1 for 1 with volume, but we'll be bringing on new employees and so there's hiring and training costs. And then just running the network more fluidly, which we're off to a great start here as we come into 2022.

將會有成本壓力，我們知道，更高的通脹環境。我們知道我們需要增加一些員工。所以你會看到我們的人數增加了一點，而不是人數上的 1 比 1，但我們會引進新員工，因此會有招聘和培訓成本。然後只是更流暢地運行網絡，隨著我們進入 2022 年，我們在這裡有了一個良好的開端。

So feel good about it. I'm not going to give a characterization one way or the other, but we're very excited about the long-term potential. And this is -- 2022 is just going to be another building block on that progression as we become more and more profitable and provide a better service product to more and more customers.

所以感覺很好。我不會以一種或另一種方式給出特徵，但我們對長期潛力感到非常興奮。這是 - 2022 年將成為這一進程的另一個基石，因為我們變得越來越有利可圖，並為越來越多的客戶提供更好的服務產品。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Kenny, you noted some significant wins here, 2 coal plant wins, you won Knight and Schneider's business. Do we normally see a tipping point of Burlington Northern chasing to win back business when it gets out of that flat? I think back to the middle of the 2000s when there were coal contracts that would always go back and forth. So I just want to understand what kind of competitive market you have when you have consistent sizable wins that we should expect?

肯尼，你在這裡提到了一些重要的勝利，2 次煤電廠的勝利，你贏得了奈特和施耐德的業務。我們通常會看到伯靈頓北方公司在離開那個公寓後追逐贏回業務的臨界點嗎？我回想起 2000 年代中期，當時的煤炭合同總是來來回回。因此，我只想了解當您獲得我們應該預期的持續可觀的勝利時，您擁有什麼樣的競爭市場？

Yes. Thanks for that, Ken. Good to hear from you. So pointing back to May at our Investor Day, we set out our targets and we want to execute on those targets, first of all. At the end of the day, truck is our true competition, and so we're exhausting all efforts to go out and win against truck. Now we've talked quite a bit about that intermodal piece. We're doing the same thing on the carload side, there's still a lot of opportunity there. So we view the competition as truck and we're going to be pretty (inaudible) as the team is all over this about trying to convert as much truck business as we can.

是的。謝謝你，肯。很高興聽到你的消息。因此，在我們的投資者日回顧 5 月，我們設定了目標，並且我們希望首先執行這些目標。歸根結底，卡車是我們真正的競爭對手，因此我們正在竭盡全力去戰勝卡車。現在我們已經談了很多關於多式聯運的文章。我們在貨運方面做同樣的事情，那裡仍然有很多機會。因此，我們將競爭視為卡車，我們將變得非常漂亮（聽不清），因為團隊正在努力盡可能多地轉換卡車業務。

Yes, Kenny. What I'm really excited about 2022 and beyond isn't the onetime conversion of business from somebody else to us, it's the fact that those businesses are very well run and our existing long-term partner is exceptionally well run in Hub and their growth engines in and of themselves for years to come. That's what really turns me on.

是的，肯尼。我對 2022 年及以後真正感到興奮的不是一次性將業務從其他人轉換為我們，而是這些業務運行良好，我們現有的長期合作夥伴在 Hub 及其增長中運行得非常好未來幾年的引擎。這才是真正讓我興奮的地方。

So just a quick follow-up. Kenny, you mentioned you're seeing some slowing domestic movement. I just want to understand if you can clarify what you were talking about within that. And then, Lance, any thoughts -- I mean obviously, a lot on press on security on the yard. Is this something that's just more press? Is this something you're getting increasingly concerned about given your boxes are sitting on storage?

所以只是快速跟進。肯尼，你提到你看到國內運動放緩。我只是想了解您是否可以澄清您在其中談論的內容。然後，蘭斯，任何想法——我的意思很明顯，很多關於院子安全的新聞。這只是更多的新聞嗎？考慮到您的盒子放在存儲空間中，這是您越來越擔心的事情嗎？

Yes. Let me start on the security side and then, Kenny, we'll turn it back over to you. So there's been a lot of coverage about some thefts that are occurring in the L.A. Basin specifically. That is a -- I'll call that a relatively unique situation where something that used to be a nuisance, call it, 2 years ago, members in a neighborhood would see a train not moving and might take advantage of trying to pop open a box and see what's inside.

是的。讓我從安全方面開始，然後，肯尼，我們會把它交給你。所以有很多關於洛杉磯盆地發生的盜竊事件的報導。那是一個 - 我會稱之為一個相對獨特的情況，在這種情況下，在 2 年前，曾經是一件令人討厭的事情，稱為它，附近的成員會看到火車不動，並且可能會利用嘗試彈出一個盒子，看看裡面有什麼。

Today that's more organized and we have our arms around it. We've increased our own police presence. We're working with the LAPD in that area. We're working with the state who's also getting involved. We're actively working to get the district attorney in the area spooled up and interested in prosecuting the cases. So I think at this point, we've got our arms around it. We've cleaned up the area, and we're going to be enhancing security in the area.

今天，它更有條理，我們擁抱它。我們增加了我們自己的警察存在。我們正在與該地區的洛杉磯警察局合作。我們正在與也參與其中的州合作。我們正在積極努力讓該地區的地方檢察官對這些案件提起訴訟並感興趣。所以我認為在這一點上，我們已經抓住了它。我們已經清理了該地區，我們將加強該地區的安全。

To your point, we're going to put physical security barriers in place. It's unfortunate because they won't be necessarily pretty but it will protect our property. And more importantly, it will protect our employees. That's probably the biggest concern I've had throughout this whole time frame. We hate impacting our customers, we really can't stomach putting our employees at risk.

就您而言，我們將設置物理安全屏障。不幸的是，它們不一定很漂亮，但它會保護我們的財產。更重要的是，它將保護我們的員工。這可能是我在整個時間範圍內最大的擔憂。我們討厭影響我們的客戶，我們真的不能忍受讓我們的員工處於危險之中。

On the international intermodal side, again, we're seeing a slow uptick into those units come on to our network. On the domestic intermodal side, we typically see a little bit of a, I'll call it, lull pause after the Christmas break. We saw it last year, it happened a little bit later because of parcels. Nothing that's concerning us. You heard my comments around the business that we're competing for early on and the price environment there. So fundamentally, we still feel optimistic about domestic intermodal.

在國際多式聯運方面，我們再次看到這些單位進入我們網絡的緩慢增長。在國內多式聯運方面，我們通常會看到一點點，我稱之為聖誕假期後的暫停。我們去年看到的，因為包裹的原因，它發生得晚了一點。沒有什麼與我們有關。你聽到了我對我們早期競爭的業務和那裡的價格環境的評論。所以從根本上說，我們還是看好國內多式聯運。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Just maybe one more on intermodal for you, Kenny. What -- we've talked about this port to port for a little while now. What's the driver behind that? I guess, what we'll get there starting back to your network. Is that why you feel like you need to add a little bit more transload. It just seems like the economics are pretty good for the liners to make the quick turns and that might be a headwind here on your international intermodal for a little while.

肯尼，也許再給你一個多式聯運。什麼——我們已經討論過這個端口到端口了一段時間。這背後的驅動力是什麼？我想，我們將從那裡開始回到您的網絡。這就是為什麼你覺得你需要添加更多的transload。看起來班輪快速轉彎的經濟性非常好，這可能會在一段時間內對您的國際多式聯運造成不利影響。

And I guess just to give you my other follow-up, maybe for Eric, can you just talk about what's left to improve on the network? You mentioned some of the challenges in the Southeast and a little bit of improvement but still bulk needs to, to get back on track. What are the key factors you're looking to put in place there? And how far are you along in implementing those right now?

我想只是為了給你我的另一個後續行動，也許對於 Eric，你能談談網絡上還有哪些需要改進的地方嗎？您提到了東南部的一些挑戰以及一些改進，但仍需要大量改進才能重回正軌。您希望在那裡實施的關鍵因素是什麼？您現在在實施這些方面走了多遠？

Kenny, that first question was about port to port.

肯尼，第一個問題是關於港口到港口的。

Yes. I talked about it a little bit. We are seeing more customers each week that are turning on more business to go inland to the ramp. That's going to take a while. I talked about the fact that we've got a lot of shift still out on the water. It's encouraging to see that both they are talking about doing it, but we're also seeing it show up in our carloads. We're looking at that on a week-to-week basis. Eric's ramps are clean. We've got the equipment, we've got the capacity. We're prepared for it, so we want our customers to bring it on.

是的。我談了一點。我們每週都會看到越來越多的客戶開啟了更多業務以進入內陸坡道。這需要一段時間。我談到了這樣一個事實，即我們在水上仍有很多輪班。看到他們倆都在談論這樣做是令人鼓舞的，但我們也看到它出現在我們的車上。我們每週都在研究這一點。埃里克的坡道很乾淨。我們有設備，我們有能力。我們已經為此做好了準備，因此我們希望我們的客戶能夠使用它。

You've got good match-back programs too, that take some of the expense of moving an empty container back west and turn it into a revenue stream.

你也有很好的匹配計劃，它花費了一些將空集裝箱運回西部並將其轉化為收入來源的費用。

We're excited about the ag program that we have at Global 4 coming on, and we've seen uplift from Dallas, Dallas to Dock. So a number of products that are out there that are going to be of value to those international customers.

我們對 Global 4 即將推出的農業計劃感到興奮，我們已經看到從達拉斯、達拉斯到 Dock 的提升。因此，許多現有的產品將對這些國際客戶有價值。

And then, Brian, on your question around crew availability, you mentioned the southeastern portion of the railroad. That's exactly right. When we walked into the quarter, that was one of the challenges that lie ahead of us was to be able to recover the manifest network in the Southeast portion. For my comments, we've done that. We brought back the fluidity that we expect, which reduces the stress on our crew base.

然後，布賴恩，關於你關於船員可用性的問題，你提到了鐵路的東南部。這是完全正確的。當我們走進這個區域時，擺在我們面前的挑戰之一就是能夠恢復東南部的清單網絡。對於我的評論，我們已經做到了。我們帶回了我們期望的流動性，這減少了我們船員基地的壓力。

Now as I think about it as a whole system, though and you think about crew availability, you've really got 3 components to that. The first one is COVID. And as we think about COVID, it's not just people who unfortunately are at home because they're either positive or they've been quarantined but also people who have to be vaccinated. And if you think about the fourth quarter relative to earlier in the year, the fourth quarter was significantly more impactful to us in that way than earlier in the year.

現在，當我將其視為一個完整的系統時，您會考慮到機組人員的可用性，您實際上擁有 3 個組件。第一個是新冠病毒。當我們想到 COVID 時，不僅是因為陽性或被隔離而不幸在家的人，還有必須接種疫苗的人。如果您考慮相對於今年早些時候的第四季度，那麼第四季度對我們的影響比今年早些時候要大得多。

The next part is the utilization of our crew base. And as I look back over the third quarter and coming into the fourth quarter, completing the fourth quarter, we've reduced our recrew rate by 1/3. And that's incredibly important because that provides us flexibility in our crew base to continue to meet growth demands.

下一部分是我們船員基地的利用。當我回顧第三季度並進入第四季度，完成第四季度時，我們已將我們的複員率降低了 1/3。這非常重要，因為這為我們的船員基礎提供了靈活性，以繼續滿足增長需求。

And then finally, as we -- as I talked a little bit about the other part of crew availability is ensuring that we're out in the marketplace, hiring for attrition and for growth. And as you heard Jennifer mentioned, we're not hiring 1 for 1. We're hiring for that growth. It's a challenging market in certain geographic locations. But what we have is a workforce resource department that has certainly stretched themselves into all sorts of different campaigns and initiatives to help us continue to hire to our demand. And I'm very encouraged for it.

最後，正如我們 - 當我談到船員可用性的另一部分時，確保我們在市場上，為減員和增長而招聘。正如您聽到詹妮弗提到的那樣，我們不會以 1 對 1 的方式招聘。我們正在為這種增長而招聘。在某些地理位置，這是一個具有挑戰性的市場。但我們擁有的是一個勞動力資源部門，該部門當然已經將自己延伸到各種不同的活動和計劃中，以幫助我們繼續根據我們的需求進行招聘。我對此感到非常鼓舞。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Eric, sticking with you, it sounds like a lot of the issues with the KPIs and the productivity are somewhat anomalous. I mean these labor availability things are hopefully very temporary and more related to short-term sickness than structural and hopefully, the supply chain uses as well. When we spoke in October, you're very optimistic that the deferred productivity gains from '21 would fall into '22 in addition to what you had already had planned for '22. As you think about it now, given it's still kind of a challenging fourth quarter and start to 1Q. Are you confident you can get all of the deferrals into '22? And is that early '22 or late '22? Or does some of the plan for '22 slip into '23 as well?

Eric，堅持下去，聽起來 KPI 存在很多問題，而且生產力有些異常。我的意思是，這些勞動力可用性的東西希望是非常暫時的，並且與短期疾病有關，而不是結構性的，希望供應鏈也使用。當我們在 10 月份發表講話時，您非常樂觀地認為，除了您已經為 22 年計劃的情況外，從 21 年延遲的生產力提升將落入 22 年。正如您現在考慮的那樣，鑑於第四季度和第一季度開始仍然充滿挑戰。你有信心把所有的延期都推遲到 22 年嗎？那是22年初還是22年底？或者 22 年的某些計劃是否也會滑入 23 年？

Yes, Jon, thanks for that question. It's an excellent question. And I want to be really clear with it. I believe all of it is just deferred. I believe we've set ourselves up coming out of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 to be able to capitalize on exactly what we said. And to your point, some of those events that impacted us were transitory. Some of them, like COVID, we may still see that impact. What you have to hear is a team that's committed to being able to capture that deferred productivity, and that's exactly what we're poised to do in '22.

是的，喬恩，謝謝這個問題。這是一個很好的問題。我想非常清楚。我相信這一切都只是推遲了。我相信我們已經為 2021 年和 2022 年初做好了準備，以便能夠充分利用我們所說的話。就您而言，影響我們的一些事件是暫時的。其中一些，比如 COVID，我們可能仍然會看到這種影響。你必須聽到的是一個致力於捕捉延遲生產力的團隊，而這正是我們準備在 22 年做的事情。

Does it flip at all maybe one half versus second half versus what you might have thought in October just because we've had this Omicron variant that's made things a little bit more choppy?

與你在 10 月所想的相比，它是否完全翻轉了一半，因為我們有這個 Omicron 變體讓事情變得更加波濤洶湧？

Well, I think if my crystal ball was that clear, I'd tell you that. But probably like you, Jon, I mean, we have to go through and plan for those contingencies. If the impact comes down, we've got to make sure we're ready to capitalize on the potential from our productivity. If the impact of COVID goes up, you'll see us flex to that as best as we possibly can. Our goal is first to ensure that our employees are safe, and they're taking the time off if they are positive, followed by making sure that when they're here, collectively, we're being as productive as we possibly can while we're also being excessively safe.

好吧，我想如果我的水晶球那麼清晰，我會告訴你的。但可能像你一樣，喬恩，我的意思是，我們必須經歷並為這些突發事件做好計劃。如果影響下降，我們必須確保我們已準備好利用我們的生產力潛力。如果 COVID 的影響上升，您會看到我們盡可能地適應這一點。我們的目標首先是確保我們的員工是安全的，如果他們是積極的，他們就會休假，其次是確保當他們在這裡時，集體，我們盡可能地高效，而我們'也太安全了。

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research。

Kenny, when I take the contract wins with Knight and coal, and I don't know if Canpotex is new or not, how much volume just from those contracts is there? Is that a point of volume, 2 points of volume? Any color there?

肯尼，當我拿下與奈特和煤炭的合同時，我不知道 Canpotex 是不是新的，這些合同的交易量有多少？那是一個點的音量，2個點的音量嗎？那裡有顏色嗎？

And then, Jennifer, any -- just any thoughts on mix for the year? I'm guessing based on your volume comments positive first half but negative second half. But would you think full year mix is positive, negative based on the volume outlook?

然後，詹妮弗，任何 - 只是對今年混音的任何想法？我猜根據你的評論量，上半年是正面的，下半年是負面的。但是，根據銷量前景，您認為全年組合是積極的還是消極的？

Scott, thanks for the question. Unfortunately, I'm not going to size the volume for you. I can tell you that we're excited about it, and Eric is prepared to handle that business. And we think that there is long-term strategic value in having and Knight-Swift on our line this year. And then eventually, long-term, we'll be able to provide our BCOs with a lot of options, and it gives us the opportunity to really build up our network and go after that truck business, but we're pretty excited about it.

斯科特，謝謝你的問題。不幸的是，我不會為你調整音量。我可以告訴你，我們對此感到很興奮，而 Eric 已準備好處理這項業務。我們認為，今年將 Knight-Swift 加入我們的生產線具有長期的戰略價值。然後最終，從長遠來看，我們將能夠為我們的 BCO 提供很多選擇，這讓我們有機會真正建立我們的網絡並追求卡車業務，但我們對此感到非常興奮.

Bottom line, it support, fundamentally supports the guidance we gave at the Investor Day in May, which is something like 3% growth for -- averaging for the next 3 years, above industrial production. So you're well positioned to be able to deliver that.

底線，它支持，從根本上支持我們在 5 月的投資者日給出的指導，這相當於未來 3 年的平均增長 3%，高於工業生產。因此，您可以很好地實現這一目標。

And now that number 5 4, point 8 for this year.

現在這個數字是 5 4，今年是第 8 點。

We knew that, again, continuing to come out of the pandemic, you were going to have stronger industrial production in the earlier part of that 3-year range. So the business wins are -- and just Kenny's team going out and hustling is what gives us that upside to industrial production.

我們知道，繼續擺脫大流行，在 3 年範圍的早期，工業生產將更加強勁。所以商業上的勝利是——只有肯尼的團隊走出去，忙碌起來才是我們工業生產的優勢所在。

To your mix question, Scott. I do believe, based on our expectations, particularly with the premium business being stronger in the second half that we will have on a full year basis a mix headwind. But I think you're looking at it correctly, when I look at the drivers for growth in the first half being more industrial and bulk loaded, it should look a little different in the first half than the full year.

對於你的混音問題，斯科特。我確實相信，根據我們的預期，特別是下半年高端業務將更加強勁，我們將在全年的基礎上面臨混合逆風。但我認為你的看法是正確的，當我看到上半年的增長動力更多是工業和散裝時，上半年應該看起來與全年略有不同。

I'm sorry, our next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

對不起，我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So there's been some renewed commentary at the federal level about whether fairly or not kind of pointing the finger a little bit at the rails and shipping companies for kind of the lack of competition there kind of being drivers of the congestion and inflation, everything else, kind of irrespective of whether that's true or not, kind of can you just share kind of what do you -- I mean, what are your conversations with the STB like nowadays? Kind of do you see any progress towards switching possible? Or kind of where do you think the outcome of that perception might be?

因此，在聯邦層面上出現了一些新的評論，關於是否公平地指責鐵路和航運公司缺乏競爭，是擁堵和通貨膨脹的驅動因素，其他一切，不管這是否屬實，你能不能分享一下你的看法——我的意思是，你現在和 STB 的對話怎麼樣？你覺得在轉換方面有什麼進展嗎？或者你認為這種看法的結果可能在哪裡？

And just a follow-up, Jennifer, kind of thanks for the detail on the driver of 2020 volume growth between end markets. I apologize that I missed it, but I didn't hear you mention domestic intermodal as one of the drivers of the upside to industrial production growth. So just to kind of tie up all the intermodal commentary on the call so far, like do you expect domestic intermodal to see a snapback, if when congestion eases and the truck market continues to get tighter?

詹妮弗只是跟進，感謝您詳細介紹了終端市場之間 2020 年銷量增長的驅動因素。我很抱歉我錯過了它，但我沒有聽到你提到國內多式聯運是推動工業生產增長的動力之一。因此，只是為了將迄今為止所有關於電話會議的多式聯運評論聯繫起來，例如，如果擁堵緩解且卡車市場繼續趨緊，您是否預計國內多式聯運會出現反彈？

Do you want to handle that?

你想處理嗎？

I was going to say, I'll do the cleanup first, and then you can talk on the regulatory side, Lance. I did reference the Knight-Swift business win, that's domestic intermodal. That's part of what's driving the plus for us relative to industrial production. And then just when you look at again some of the supply chain issues, which impacted both international and domestic intermodal, as we see those resolving themselves more in the back half of the year, we would look to see strong performance there.

我本來想說，我會先做清理工作，然後你可以談談監管方面的問題，Lance。我確實提到了 Knight-Swift 的商業勝利，那就是國內多式聯運。這是推動我們相對於工業生產的優勢的一部分。然後，當您再次查看一些影響國際和國內多式聯運的供應鏈問題時，我們看到這些問題在今年下半年得到更多解決，我們希望在那裡看到強勁的表現。

Yes. And Ravi, as regards to our conversation with the STB, notwithstanding whatever perception is held at a federal level regarding our participation in the current supply chain congestion, factually, we are open and ready for business. We talked openly on this call about some of the operating challenges we faced in the fourth quarter. Exiting the year, we're on better footing and that you will see that better footing demonstrated in our public numbers. You've already seen some of that at the very beginning of the year, and that continues to improve.

是的。至於 Ravi，關於我們與 STB 的對話，儘管聯邦層面對我們參與當前的供應鏈擁塞有任何看法，但事實上，我們已經開放並準備好開展業務。我們在這次電話會議上公開談論了我們在第四季度面臨的一些運營挑戰。結束這一年，我們的基礎更好，您會在我們的公開數據中看到更好的基礎。你已經在今年年初看到了其中的一些，而且這種情況還在繼續改善。

In terms of the regulatory environment, we are actively engaged with the STB. The workload from our perspective is probably in this order. There's the CP-KCS transaction that we need to be engaged on. We've got a fundamental concern there to make sure that our customers continue to enjoy direct unfettered access to the commercial markets in Mexico and that the industrial base in Mexico enjoys the access that we provide to the United States market. We enjoy about 2/3 to 70% of that cross-border traffic today. And in the context of this transaction, we want to make sure our customers continue to have that competitive option available to them.

在監管環境方面，我們積極與 STB 合作。從我們的角度來看，工作量可能是這樣的。我們需要進行 CP-KCS 交易。我們在那裡有一個基本的關注點，以確保我們的客戶繼續享受直接不受限制地進入墨西哥的商業市場，並確保墨西哥的工業基地享有我們提供的進入美國市場的機會。今天，我們享受了大約 2/3 到 70% 的跨境流量。在此次交易的背景下，我們希望確保我們的客戶繼續擁有這種具有競爭力的選擇。

Probably the second biggest item on our horizon at the STB is forced access or open access. There is a hearing on that coming up in March. We continue to work with the STB to help them understand our perspective of the dynamics of the rail industry and how to look at that possible regulation from a perspective that allows us to continue to serve our customers exceptionally well and continue to invest in our railroad, so that, that service lasts for years to come.

在 STB 中，我們視野中的第二大項目可能是強制訪問或開放訪問。將在 3 月舉行聽證會。我們將繼續與 STB 合作，幫助他們了解我們對鐵路行業動態的看法，以及如何從允許我們繼續為客戶提供出色服務並繼續投資於我們的鐵路的角度來看待可能的監管，因此，該服務將持續數年。

And then finally, there's been work on final offer rate review at the STB. We've offered up with pure railroads an alternative to that and an alternative dispute resolution mechanism. Looks like it's nice simplification for small rate cases, small shipper rate cases, and it satisfies some of what we consider the big legal heir on the STB's proposal to have somebody else take on the role of rate mediation.

最後，STB 正在進行最終報價審查工作。我們提供了純鐵路的替代方案和替代的爭議解決機制。看起來它對小費率案件、小托運人費率案件進行了很好的簡化，並且滿足了我們認為 STB 提議讓其他人擔任費率調解角色的一些重要法律繼承人。

Other than that, our job at the STB is to provide an excellent reliable service product and stay engaged so that they understand the industry from our perspective. If we do those 2 things, I think we can navigate the dock that's in front of us in the coming year.

除此之外，我們在 STB 的工作是提供優質可靠的服務產品並保持參與度，以便他們從我們的角度了解行業。如果我們做這兩件事，我認為我們可以在來年駕馭擺在我們面前的碼頭。

Our next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

Yes. I'll give you both questions upfront. I guess, one, you got a question earlier on kind of the momentum in contract wins, which is great to see you executing on your strategy that you laid out at the analyst meeting. So kudos on that.

是的。我會提前給你兩個問題。我想，一個，你早些時候有一個關於贏得合同的動力的問題，很高興看到你執行你在分析師會議上製定的策略。因此，對此表示讚賞。

I wonder if you can offer some kind of high-level thoughts on price versus volume. Presumably, some of these bigger contract wins price is a consideration. So how do you think about the kind of price versus volume focus maybe this year or next year? And is it a bit less on price and more on volume? Or just how you think about that?

我想知道您是否可以就價格與數量提供某種高層次的想法。想必，其中一些較大的合同勝價是一個考慮因素。那麼你如何看待今年或明年的價格與數量焦點？價格是不是少了一點，數量上多了？或者只是你怎麼想的？

And then the second question would be, you're anticipating ramp in volume, you're ready to go at the terminals. But in July 2021, you had this issue where there just wasn't enough drayage capacity. So you had a buildup of containers, do you have visibility to drayage capacity or control over that, such that you wouldn't run into that issue again in '22?

然後第二個問題是，您預計數量會增加，您已準備好前往航站樓。但是在 2021 年 7 月，您遇到了這個問題，即沒有足夠的拖運能力。所以你有一個集裝箱的堆積，你是否能看到或控制運輸能力，這樣你就不會在 22 年再次遇到這個問題？

Kenny, do you want to -- you're probably good to handle maybe even both of those.

肯尼，你想 - 你可能很擅長處理這兩個問題。

Yes. I mean, we're certainly pricing to the market and nothing has changed in our overall approach to the market. We're selling a very strong, reliable service product. We're also backing that up with a lot of the capital that Eric and his team will be putting in to create a value proposition. So that's our approach to the market. That's how we're going to win. That's how we're going to grow. That's how we talk to our BCOs and all the customers on our network.

是的。我的意思是，我們當然是在為市場定價，我們對市場的整體方法沒有任何改變。我們正在銷售一種非常強大、可靠的服務產品。我們還用埃里克和他的團隊將投入的大量資金來支持這一點，以創造價值主張。這就是我們進入市場的方法。這就是我們要贏的方式。這就是我們要成長的方式。這就是我們與 BCO 和我們網絡上的所有客戶交談的方式。

To the second question about drayage capacity. Yes, we certainly see offline time, we see what were the -- how much time the chassis are gone, how much time the containers are gone. It's still not a very efficient network. It needs to come down. And as it comes down, it's going to create more volume growth, more efficiency for us. It will be overall positive. So we're looking at that on a daily basis.

關於貨運能力的第二個問題。是的，我們當然看到了離線時間，我們看到了——底盤消失了多少時間，容器消失了多少時間。它仍然不是一個非常有效的網絡。它需要下來。隨著它的下降，它將為我們創造更多的銷量增長和更高的效率。這將是總體積極的。因此，我們每天都在關注這一點。

Yes, Eric, that looks better, but there's clearly still some work to be done there, right?

是的，埃里克，這看起來更好，但顯然還有一些工作要做，對吧？

There's still work to be done there. And as we talked nearly a year ago at Investor Day about intermodal being such an important growth engine for us, we also, at the same time, rolled out intermodal excellence. And if you look at many of those initiatives, they're focused on assisting our customers on helping with the ability to be able to get quicker turns. So as I think about the work we're doing at nearly every intermodal ramp around our gate system and reducing the amount of time to get in and get out, that's helping them and that generating capacity.

那裡還有工作要做。近一年前，我們在投資者日談到多式聯運對我們來說是一個如此重要的增長引擎，與此同時，我們還推出了卓越的多式聯運。而且，如果您查看其中許多計劃，就會發現他們專注於幫助我們的客戶獲得更快轉彎的能力。因此，當我想到我們在登機口系統周圍幾乎每個多式聯運坡道上所做的工作並減少進出的時間時，這對他們和發電能力都有幫助。

The work we've done on changing our UPGo app to make whether it's for our existing customers or new customers, it provides them greater opportunity to efficiently get through the ramp. So we're making sure that we're continuing to do our part to assist our customers to be able to generate that capacity. Now to Lance's point, there's opportunity on the other side. But together, I think we'll work our way through it.

我們在更改 UPGo 應用程序方面所做的工作，無論是為我們現有的客戶還是新客戶，它都為他們提供了更大的機會來有效地通過坡道。因此，我們確保我們將繼續儘自己的一份力量來幫助我們的客戶能夠產生這種能力。現在就蘭斯而言，另一邊也有機會。但在一起，我想我們會努力克服它。

The only thing I'd add is that the congestion issues that you're referencing in particular, Tom, were really around the international intermodal front and a lack of international chassis and dray drivers. And some of our recent wins have been with -- on the domestic side with asset owners who come with their own chassis and driver fleet.

我唯一要補充的是，你特別提到的擁堵問題，湯姆，實際上是在國際多式聯運前沿，缺乏國際底盤和貨車司機。我們最近的一些勝利是與 - 在國內方面，資產所有者擁有自己的底盤和司機車隊。

That's true.

確實如此。

Our next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors。

Just one clarification, you've been reporting RTMs weekly for some time now. Are your volume comments focused on RTMs or carload and intermodal units? And on the volume outlook a little more strategically, can you talk about any particular places where the gap between your bottoms-up conversations with your customers and sort of the tops down anchoring that you gave today seem to either diverge in magnitude or maybe conviction?

澄清一下，您已經每週報告 RTM 已有一段時間了。您的大量評論是否集中在 RTM 或整車和多式聯運單元上？在交易量前景上更具戰略意義，您能否談談您與客戶自下而上的對話與您今天給出的自上而下的錨定之間的差距似乎在幅度或信念上存在差異的任何特定地方？

So I'll start with that, Bascome. When we talk about volume and give you the volume guidance, we're talking about it on a carload basis. So that's consistent with how we talked about it at the Analyst Day, and so we're talking carloads. Kenny, do you want to talk about...

所以我將從這個開始，Bascome。當我們談論成交量並為您提供成交量指導時，我們是在整車基礎上談論它。所以這與我們在分析師日談論它的方式是一致的，所以我們談論的是整車。肯尼，你想談談...

And let me chime in on that first question or on the second question, the bottoms up versus tops down. Kenny, you have unique relationships with the commercial side of a lot of -- in the buying side of a lot of our customers.

讓我談談第一個問題或第二個問題，自下而上與自上而下。肯尼，你與我們很多客戶的採購方的商業方有著獨特的關係。

At the CEO level, I'll tell you what my counterparts tend to be focused on is consumers are flush. Balance sheets for consumers are good and they're financially healthy. So as long as their confidence isn't rattled, they seem to be postured to continue to purchase through the year. And the industrial economy, a lot of my industrial peers feel pretty confident that their marketplaces look pretty good to them, whether you're in the housing market, you're in the construction market, you're in some other aspects of our industrial economy. So at the very highest level, Kenny, that's what I hear.

在 CEO 層面，我會告訴你，我的同行往往關注的是消費者是否齊頭並進。消費者的資產負債表很好，他們的財務狀況也很健康。因此，只要他們的信心沒有動搖，他們似乎就準備全年繼續購買。至於工業經濟，我的很多工業同行都非常有信心，他們的市場對他們來說看起來不錯，無論你是在房地產市場，還是在建築市場，還是在我們工業的其他方面經濟。所以在最高級別，肯尼，這就是我所聽到的。

Yes. Lance, you're spot on. And the only thing I would add is that, we're not waiting around to think strategically about these growth areas from a [geo] perspective. And that's what you're seeing now with all the work that we're doing with Eric's team in terms of Inland Empire and the growth there and the investments there, with Twin Cities, the growth there and the investments there. You're going to see a little bit more volume in those areas than you did last year. That's intermodal.

是的。蘭斯，你很準。我唯一要補充的是，我們不會等待從[地理]角度戰略性地考慮這些增長領域。這就是你現在所看到的，我們與 Eric 的團隊在 Inland Empire 方面所做的所有工作，以及那裡的增長和投資，雙子城，那裡的增長和那裡的投資。與去年相比，您將在這些領域看到更多的交易量。那是多式聯運。

Also on the carload side, we're also thinking very strategically about areas that you can call it high-growth population, you can call it high warehousing. When we see areas that are underpenetrated from a rail perspective, we're going to be opportunistic and really invest towards those areas. And that's what you're seeing with the transload facilities in the Inland Empire and that Phoenix area.

同樣在貨運方面，我們也在非常戰略性地考慮可以稱之為高增長人口的領域，你可以稱之為高倉儲。當我們從鐵路的角度看到尚未滲透的領域時，我們將投機取巧並真正投資於這些領域。這就是您在內陸帝國和鳳凰城地區的轉運設施所看到的。

Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens 的對話。

I was wondering if you could share how much of a tailwind you're assuming from coal within the full year volume guidance. And then I also wanted to ask about labor availability on a sequential basis. Is it getting any better or is it getting worse? And maybe you could just speak to your confidence in growing head count to support that 5% plus volume growth outlook.

我想知道你是否可以在全年的銷量指導中分享你對煤炭的假設有多少順風。然後我還想按順序詢問勞動力可用性。是變好了還是變壞了？也許你可以談談你對增加員工人數的信心，以支持 5% 以上的銷量增長前景。

Yes. Thanks, Justin, for the question. We're not going to get into that level of granularity, but we did think it was important to acknowledge that coal is changing the posture from what we thought it was when we talked to you back in May from a tailwind to a headwind. And we're going to leverage that absolutely as long as we can. And the new business wins certainly help with that. Do you want to talk about the crew availability?

是的。謝謝賈斯汀的問題。我們不會進入那種粒度級別，但我們確實認為重要的是要承認煤炭正在改變我們在 5 月份與您交談時認為的態勢，從順風變成逆風。我們將盡可能地利用這一點。新業務的勝利肯定對此有所幫助。你想談談船員的可用性嗎？

Yes. I'm building off the previous conversation. I mean we're in the market. It's certainly into some point in some locations, Justin, is a challenging market.

是的。我正在建立之前的對話。我的意思是我們在市場上。賈斯汀（Justin）在某些地方肯定會進入某個點，這是一個具有挑戰性的市場。

As I think about looking throughout the year, some of the different activities we've taken on are meant to really differentiate us from other companies that are in the market as well. As I think about not only employee referral programs, they get the word out more in our social media campaigns but also think about the efforts we've taken in the last year, where we're now talking to prospective employees the day they come to the railroad is also the first day they can start college with us, that we offer that free of charge to them. So we're in the market. We're going to continue to put out what we feel is a very strong value proposition to join Union Pacific.

當我考慮全年觀察時，我們開展的一些不同活動旨在真正將我們與市場上的其他公司區分開來。當我不僅考慮員工推薦計劃時，他們在我們的社交媒體活動中更多地宣傳，而且考慮到我們在去年所做的努力，我們現在正在與潛在員工交談的那一天鐵路也是他們可以和我們一起上大學的第一天，我們免費為他們提供。所以我們在市場上。我們將繼續推出我們認為加入聯合太平洋的非常強大的價值主張。

Well, and Eric, you mentioned some self-help on crew availability. Your strong move on reducing the recrew rate by 1/3 or more, that, in essence, frees up some amount of our crew boards. And you're just generally more productive now with unproductive crew starts like held away from home terminal.

好吧，埃里克，你提到了一些關於船員可用性的自助。您在將復員率降低 1/3 或更多方面採取了強有力的舉措，從本質上講，這釋放了我們的一些船員委員會。而且你現在通常更有效率，因為工作人員開始時效率低下，比如遠離家庭航站樓。

Well, we also saw in the fourth quarter, we're starting to see the benefits of a high vaccination rate across the company and being able to have people be healthy.

好吧，我們還在第四季度看到，我們開始看到整個公司的高疫苗接種率以及能夠讓人們保持健康的好處。

We should talk about that, Justin. It's pretty much invisible to the outside world, but our -- over 3/4 of our workforce is fully vaccinated. And that's because we started early on complying with the federal vaccine mandate. Now we paused because of the pause mandated by a court. But we think that our employee population because of that high vaccination rate lasted through Omicron a little better than the communities that we serve. We saw a spike in the number of our employees who had to quarantine presume positive or exposed but it was nothing like the spike we saw in the communities that we serve.

我們應該談談這個，賈斯汀。外界幾乎看不到它，但我們超過 3/4 的員工完全接種了疫苗。那是因為我們很早就開始遵守聯邦疫苗規定。現在我們暫停了，因為法院要求暫停。但我們認為，由於高疫苗接種率，我們的員工群體在 Omicron 的持續時間比我們服務的社區好一點。我們看到必須隔離假定陽性或暴露的員工人數激增，但這與我們在我們服務的社區中看到的激增完全不同。

Our next question is coming from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Just a question. Just thinking about the trip plan compliance around the manifest business, which obviously has been under pressure, although, as you say, things perhaps moving forward on that front. But just from a sensitivity standpoint, how critical is something like that metric to you to getting closer to a normal level to producing the operating ratio that you guys are targeting? Like I'm just trying to get a sense for how important is that for us to watch moving up and thinking of relation to your targets for margins?

就一個問題。只是考慮一下艙單業務的旅行計劃合規性，這顯然一直處於壓力之下，儘管正如你所說，事情可能在這方面取得進展。但僅從敏感性的角度來看，像這樣的指標對你來說對於接近正常水平以產生你們所瞄準的運營比率有多重要？就像我只是想了解我們觀察向上移動並考慮與您的利潤目標的關係有多重要？

Yes. I'll maybe start and others may want to weigh in. But when we look at the key metrics that are driving the cost profile, which relates to certainly the operating ratio, I'd look more at freight car velocity and the terminal dwell numbers in terms of how efficiently we're handling the freight on the railroad. And that also has an impact on the number of turns that we're getting on the cars so we can put up against the customers to get that next revenue load. So I see trip plan compliance and intermodal trip plan compliance more as the outcome of this other things that we're doing in terms of moving the car and operating the network more fluidly being more directly impactful to the OR.

是的。我可能會開始，其他人可能想參與進來。但是當我們查看推動成本概況的關鍵指標時，這肯定與運營率有關，我會更多地關注貨車速度和終端停留數量就我們在鐵路上處理貨物的效率而言。這也會影響我們上車的轉彎次數，因此我們可以與客戶抗衡以獲得下一個收入負載。因此，我認為旅行計劃合規性和多式聯運旅行計劃合規性更多地是我們在移動汽車和更流暢地運營網絡方面所做的其他事情的結果，這些事情對手術室的影響更直接。

Yes, Jennifer, those trip plan compliance numbers are really about can we serve customers in a manner that's consistent with our commitment. So that's about over the period of time, that needs to be reliable so that we can continue to secure business and have happy customers. But in terms of hitting a high margin or a margin target, that's about car velocity, terminal dwell, locomotive productivity and workforce productivity and train lengths had grown there as well.

是的，詹妮弗，這些旅行計劃合規數字實際上是關於我們能否以符合我們承諾的方式為客戶提供服務。所以這大約是在一段時間內，這需要是可靠的，這樣我們才能繼續確保業務並擁有滿意的客戶。但就達到高利潤率或利潤率目標而言，這與汽車速度、終端停留、機車生產力和勞動力生產力以及火車長度有關。

Next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Walter Spracklin。

So I just wanted to go back to the business wins. And certainly, that's a positive and I think will certainly be viewed as such. But I just wanted to ask the question. We did see a railroad, one of your Northern peers, a number of years ago growing quite substantially, winning share. But when faced with some capacity constraints, it kind of led to a significant gridlock that kind of prevailed for a couple of years.

所以我只想回到商業勝利。當然，這是積極的，我認為肯定會被這樣看待。但我只是想問這個問題。幾年前，我們確實看到了一條鐵路，你的北方同行之一，增長相當大，贏得了份額。但是，當面臨一些容量限制時，它會導致嚴重的僵局，這種僵局持續了幾年。

So given the capacity constraints that we have right now, you're taking on new business, what comfort level do you have that you're not going to run into some of those issues over the next couple of years even as supply chain -- global supply chain problems ease hopefully in the coming months and quarters?

因此，鑑於我們目前的產能限制，您正在開展新業務，您有多大的舒適度可以保證您在未來幾年內不會遇到其中一些問題，即使是供應鏈-全球供應鏈問題有望在未來幾個月和幾個季度得到緩解？

Walter, we are highly confident we have a plan in place and an existing network to be able to absorb the growth that we've been talking about this morning and not be gridlocked, a couple of cases in point. One, we've just onboarded Knight-Swift over the course of the last 5 weeks, call it, 4 weeks, 6 weeks, and it's been flawless. That was on the strength of a lot of coordination and planning between ourselves and that customer in order to make sure their drivers were well prepared, that our ramps were efficient for their drivers, that we had good signage and our UPGo app, to make it virtually seamless to get on and off. So I know we're going to be able to plan and execute in the same way for future onboarding.

沃爾特，我們非常有信心，我們有一個適當的計劃和一個現有的網絡，能夠吸收我們今天早上一直在談論的增長，而不是陷入僵局，這有幾個例子。一，在過去的 5 周里，我們剛剛加入了 Knight-Swift，稱之為，4 週，6 週，它完美無瑕。這是在我們與客戶之間進行大量協調和規劃的基礎上，以確保他們的司機做好充分準備，我們的坡道對他們的司機來說是高效的，我們有良好的標牌和我們的 UPGo 應用程序，以確保成功幾乎無縫上下車。所以我知道我們將能夠以相同的方式為未來的入職計劃和執行。

The other thing to note is we've upticked our capital a bit. There are some areas that we need to invest in. There's that $600 million or so of commercial facilities and capacity. Historically, a lot of that spend would be targeted on productivity enhancement. As we look into this year, a fair amount of that spend is being targeted towards enabling growth. And so we've got a game plan. We've got the capital to be able to do it. We're well in advance of needing to put the capital in the ground, and so it's happening.

另一件需要注意的是，我們的資本有所增加。有些領域我們需要投資。有 6 億美元左右的商業設施和容量。從歷史上看，大部分支出將用於提高生產力。在我們展望今年時，相當多的支出都用於促進增長。所以我們有一個遊戲計劃。我們有足夠的資本去做這件事。我們很早就需要將資金投入地下，所以它正在發生。

Yes. And that's where some of those investments that Lance referenced that were productivity investments initially when you think about siding extensions become investments that support the growth of the network, and that's capacity that's not being utilized in that manner today. And then think about our locomotives, which we still have a significant portion of our locomotive fleet that is stored today. So that's capacity that we have to bring to bear and will be.

是的。這就是 Lance 引用的一些投資，當您考慮壁板擴展時，這些投資最初是生產力投資，現在變成了支持網絡增長的投資，而這就是今天沒有以這種方式利用的能力。然後想想我們的機車，我們今天仍然有很大一部分機車機車。所以這是我們必須承擔的能力，並將成為。

That's great. No. That's excellent color. I appreciate that. And then my follow-up is more on a technology question. I'm sure you've seen that parallel systems initiative for autonomous electric vehicles that would maximize the use of existing rail networks. Your competitor weighed in on it.

那太棒了。不，那是極好的顏色。我很感激。然後我的後續工作更多是關於技術問題。我相信您已經看到了自動駕駛電動汽車的並行系統計劃，該計劃將最大限度地利用現有鐵路網絡。您的競爭對手對此進行了權衡。

Just curious is that something we should even keep an eye on? Is it a real initiative? And do you see it as possibly have moving the needle for Union Pacific if it were applied going forward? Or are there some challenges associated with its implementation that are likely not going to bring it to bear?

只是好奇是我們甚至應該關注的事情嗎？這是一個真正的倡議嗎？如果將來應用它，您是否認為它可能會為聯合太平洋移動針頭？或者是否有一些與實施相關的挑戰可能不會讓它承擔？

Walter, we are interested in the parallel systems technology. We are familiar with it and it is of interest. It's of keen interest. Candidly, there are a lot -- there's a lot of hurdles in front of that technology for deployment.

Walter，我們對並行系統技術很感興趣。我們對它很熟悉並且很感興趣。這是很感興趣的。坦率地說，有很多 - 在部署該技術之前有很多障礙。

Having said that, it could potentially be a game changer if it proves out to be effective and workable. So I'd say keep your eye on it, and we're keeping our eye on it. And I don't think it's going to impact '22 or '23 or '24. But at some point, it could be a technology that has utility for the U.S. rail network.

話雖如此，如果它被證明是有效且可行的，它可能會改變遊戲規則。所以我會說請密切關注它，我們正在密切關注它。而且我認為它不會影響 22 年或 23 年或 24 年。但在某些時候，它可能是一項對美國鐵路網絡有用的技術。

Our next question is from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel. .

我們的下一個問題來自 Ben Nolan 和 Stifel。 .

And I appreciate you guys working in. So my first question, I guess, relates to just thinking about the Schneider win that you guys had. When you're out pitching for new business like that, just curious how you are positioning the value proposition for you guys. Is it more about the economics? Or is it service-oriented? Or sort of how do you pitch the competitive advantage that you're providing your customers?

我感謝你們在其中工作。所以我想，我的第一個問題與思考你們獲得的施耐德勝利有關。當您為這樣的新業務推銷時，只是好奇您如何為你們定位價值主張。更多是關於經濟的嗎？還是面向服務的？或者您如何推銷您為客戶提供的競爭優勢？

Kenny, your team is won that one.

肯尼，你的球隊贏了。

Yes. Again, I'm really proud of the team. We've got a strong leadership team in the premium side with Kari Kirchhoefer leading that. But what we're doing is we're working as a team. And the first thing we do is we talk about our service products, we talk about where our network is and the capacity.

是的。再一次，我真的為球隊感到驕傲。我們在高端領域擁有一支強大的領導團隊，由 Kari Kirchhoefer 領導。但我們正在做的是我們作為一個團隊工作。我們做的第一件事就是談論我們的服務產品，我們談論我們的網絡在哪里以及容量。

Clearly, we had to put up some capital against that and some investments against that to help those carriers, those customers get into and get out of our ramps. We're very fluid. We're flowing all those things. There is no part of it where we're changing our pricing strategy or approach to the market. We'll let the players really fight it out on the field and let their own efficiencies went out. So we're just selling our network. We've got a beautiful network that we've invested in, and that's what we're selling.

顯然，我們必須為此投入一些資金和一些投資，以幫助那些運營商、那些客戶進入和離開我們的坡道。我們非常流暢。我們正在流動所有這些東西。我們沒有改變定價策略或市場方法的任何部分。我們會讓球員在場上真正地戰鬥，讓他們自己的效率發揮出來。所以我們只是在出售我們的網絡。我們已經投資了一個漂亮的網絡，這就是我們正在銷售的東西。

Perfect, Kenny. And for my follow-up, quickly, Jennifer, the -- when you talk about the 3% inflation, I was just curious how you're factoring fuel cost into that?

完美，肯尼。對於我的後續行動，詹妮弗，當你談到 3% 的通貨膨脹時，我只是好奇你是如何將燃料成本考慮在內的？

Great question, Ben. We don't factor fuel cost into that because of our fuel surcharge programs. And yes, there's a lag, but we don't include fuel when we're talking about our core inflation.

好問題，本。由於我們的燃油附加費計劃，我們沒有將燃油成本計入其中。是的，有一個滯後，但當我們談論我們的核心通脹時，我們不包括燃料。

Our next question is from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自道明證券的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

Just a couple of questions on the operating side. I was wondering whether you could talk about if you've seen an uptick in your labor attrition rate as some of your peers have and how you're coping with that?

只是關於操作方面的幾個問題。我想知道你是否可以談談你是否像一些同行一樣看到你的勞動力流失率上升，以及你是如何應對的？

And then just at a higher level, with regard to productivity to provide a partial offset to inflation, can you talk about how you're keeping the PSR mindset sort of alive and well throughout the company, particularly as you bring on new employees?

然後在更高的層面上，關於生產力以部分抵消通貨膨脹，您能否談談您如何在整個公司保持 PSR 思維方式的活力和良好狀態，特別是在您引入新員工時？

Yes. Thank you for those questions, Cherilyn. And the first answer is actually really straightforward. If you look at our 5-year average, we are not seeing increased attrition in our agreement professionals.

是的。謝謝你的這些問題，Cherilyn。第一個答案實際上非常簡單。如果您查看我們的 5 年平均值，我們並沒有看到我們的協議專業人員的流失增加。

Regarding your second question, there's a lot of ways that we continue to reinforce PSR, but really our flagship method is really the one we've employed for the last -- well, this will be the third year in a row, which is our operating excellence classes. This is an opportunity for frontline leaders in the operating department all the way through executives that are in the front lines to be not only with one another in groups of 60 to 80 but also to be with me and the leadership team as we continue to define our PSR initiatives as we continue to evolve the railroad with more PSR initiatives, and they're hearing it directly from us. Most importantly, they're getting the chance to ask questions and ensure that we have alignment and also present their opportunities back to us. So we'll continue to use communication as our single best tool, followed by just a relentless focus on execution.

關於你的第二個問題，我們有很多方法可以繼續加強 PSR，但實際上我們的旗艦方法確實是我們最後使用的方法——嗯，這將是連續第三年，這是我們的卓越運營課程。這是一個機會，讓運營部門的一線領導一直到一線的高管，不僅可以在 60 到 80 人的小組中相互交流，而且在我們繼續定義的過程中與我和領導團隊在一起我們的 PSR 計劃隨著我們繼續通過更多 PSR 計劃發展鐵路，他們直接從我們那裡聽到。最重要的是，他們有機會提出問題並確保我們保持一致，並將他們的機會還給我們。因此，我們將繼續使用溝通作為我們唯一的最佳工具，然後堅持不懈地專注於執行。

Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

I'm sorry, I missed the first part of this call, so I don't mean to be duplicative in my question. But Lance or Eric, your trip plan compliance is down quite a bit. And I realize there's a lot of other outside factors right now during the pandemic. But for better words, this industry has a reputation when demand goes up, when the economy heats up, service -- volume goes up and service goes down.

對不起，我錯過了這個電話的第一部分，所以我不想重複我的問題。但是蘭斯或埃里克，你的旅行計劃合規性下降了很多。我意識到現在在大流行期間還有很多其他外部因素。但更確切地說，當需求上升、經濟升溫、服務下降時，這個行業享有盛譽——數量上升，服務下降。

I guess how do you think about that in the longer-term context. Have we just cut too far under these PSR plans? Do we need to rethink labor and workforce levels? And is the CapEx level today at the right level? Or does that even potentially need to be reevaluated looking forward?

我想你如何看待長期背景下的問題。我們是否在這些 PSR 計劃下削減得太遠了？我們是否需要重新考慮勞動力和勞動力水平？今天的資本支出水平是否正確？或者是否甚至可能需要重新評估未來？

Yes, Brandon, this is Lance. I'm going to start because I've been crystal clear on this point with other audiences when I'm out talking. If you look at our historic record here over the past handful of years through our transformation, we've improved our operating metrics when volume went down, particularly last year, and we improved them last year when volumes snapped back, right? So there's no reason to -- for us to think empirically on Union Pacific, volume is going to tank our ability to run the railroad.

是的，布蘭登，這是蘭斯。我要開始了，因為當我出去談話時，我已經和其他聽眾清楚地說明了這一點。如果您通過我們的轉型來查看我們在過去幾年中的歷史記錄，我們已經在銷量下降時改善了我們的運營指標，特別是在去年，並且在去年銷量回升時我們改善了它們，對吧？所以沒有理由——讓我們憑經驗思考聯合太平洋，體積將削弱我們運營鐵路的能力。

Now having said that, what hurt us in crew availability primarily in the second half of the year, was, I think, we did not adequately address in our planning the reality of COVID and a third and a fourth wave. Our planning profile said COVID is going to be around, but we're going to get used to it. It's going to have a diminishing impact, and we've got the resources necessary in that environment. What we did not plan for was a vaccine mandate, where we'd have to give people time off to get vaccinated and waves where we had hundreds of UP employees unavailable to us on any given day because of quarantine.

話雖如此，我認為，主要在下半年對我們的船員可用性造成傷害的是，我們在規劃 COVID 以及第三和第四波的現實時沒有充分解決。我們的計劃簡介說 COVID 將會出現，但我們會習慣它。它的影響會越來越小，而我們在那種環境中擁有必要的資源。我們沒有計劃的是疫苗授權，我們必須讓人們有時間去接種疫苗，並且由於隔離，我們在任何一天都有數百名 UP 員工無法使用。

And I look at that, and I think shame on us. That's a risk factor that we did not adequately plan for. And when I look into the future, we're going to just be a whole lot more relentless about -- and deliberate about the assumptions that we're building into our plans. Having said that, we're on the backside of getting that remedied in part through being relentless on how we utilize crews that are available to us and on the front side in making sure that we've got our boards staffed in a way that supports our crew consumption.

我看著那個，我覺得我們很丟臉。這是我們沒有充分計劃的一個風險因素。當我展望未來時，我們將更加無情 - 並仔細考慮我們正在構建到我們計劃中的假設。話雖如此，我們通過堅持不懈地利用可用的工作人員和確保我們的董事會人員配備支持我們的船員消費。

And at some point in the future, COVID is going to go away or it's going to be much less impactful. And I think at that point, that's going to be a wonderful day. But until then, we have to plan for it as a contingency, and that's what we've got built in. And I think we're going to be demonstrating that to you early on in this year. I see it in the statistics, and you will see it in the operating statistics as well.

在未來的某個時候，新冠病毒將會消失，或者影響會小得多。我認為在那一點上，那將是美好的一天。但在那之前，我們必須將其作為應急計劃，這就是我們已經建立的。我認為我們將在今年早些時候向你們展示這一點。我在統計中看到，你也會在運營統計中看到。

Our next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 的觀點。

So Kenny or Eric, I guess a question for you on the intermodal growth that you're putting out there. Is this something that we should be estimating as 100% incremental to the current base and whatever growth forecast we're going to put in there? Or are there some customer losses, some remixing of the business that you're planning to do? I'm just wondering if we should be sort of thinking that this business comes in and the intermodal network is going to expand? Or are we going to be looking at this as only partially incremental growth?

所以肯尼或埃里克，我想問你一個關於你在那裡提出的多式聯運增長的問題。我們是否應該將其估計為當前基數的 100% 增量，以及我們將在那裡進行的任何增長預測？或者是否有一些客戶流失，或者你打算做的業務的一些重組？我只是想知道我們是否應該考慮一下這項業務的進入並且多式聯運網絡將會擴展？還是我們會將其視為僅部分增量增長？

No. This is clearly incremental growth for us. There's not a bait-and-switch or we change something or lost something. No, this is all incremental growth. And we're working very closely with Eric, our teams. Eric and I spend quite a bit of time talking about the intermodal network.

不，這對我們來說顯然是增量增長。沒有誘餌和轉換，或者我們改變了一些東西或丟失了一些東西。不，這都是增量增長。我們正在與我們的團隊 Eric 密切合作。埃里克和我花了很多時間談論多式聯運網絡。

All right. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up. The volume outlook slide has a question mark for international intermodal. I'm just wondering, is that a commentary on the congestion at the ports and the shipper preferences for expediting off the West Coast? Or is that commentary that says, "Hey, look, after this before the volume comes in, warehouses are going to be full and we should see import growth start to slow" I'm just wondering what is the meaning behind that question mark on the volume outlook for international?

好的。然後也許只是作為一個快速跟進。數量前景幻燈片對國際多式聯運打了一個問號。我只是想知道，這是對港口擁堵的評論以及托運人對加快西海岸速度的偏好嗎？或者是評論說，“嘿，看，在這之後，在成交量進來之前，倉庫就會滿了，我們應該看到進口增長開始放緩”我只是想知道那個問號背後的含義是什麼國際銷量前景如何？

Yes. Thank you for asking that clarifying question. And you're right, it's all about as we're slowly coming out of the Christmas holiday, I clearly believe that there is some natural timing to this that we should see things work out. I've said this during the last part of the year, sometime in the middle of the year. But it's just going to be a gradual and slow increase the carloads on the international intermodal side. But the short answer is that's what you're seeing.

是的。感謝您提出這個澄清問題。你是對的，這一切都是關於我們正在慢慢走出聖誕假期，我顯然相信這有一些自然的時機，我們應該看到事情的進展。我在今年的最後一部分，在年中的某個時候說過這句話。但這只是國際多式聯運方面的逐漸和緩慢的增加。但簡短的回答是，這就是你所看到的。

So that's more congestion than a macro comment.

所以這比宏觀評論更擁擠。

Port congestion for sure, as customers are now sending more to Inland versus port to port.

港口肯定會擁堵，因為客戶現在向內陸發送更多貨物，而不是從港口到港口。

Yes. Yes. I think where you're going with that, David, is there's nothing about in-market demand that we're building into the plan that says there's a collapse of the American consumer buying imports.

是的。是的。大衛，我認為你的想法是，我們正在將市場需求納入計劃中，表明美國消費者購買進口商品的數量已經崩潰。

Okay. Good. I just, I wanted to make sure that wasn't a macro thing.

好的。好的。我只是，我想確保這不是宏觀問題。

Next question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

下一個問題來自Jairam Nathan 與Daiwa 的對話。

Just following up on the paddle systems deck. So we have seen a lot of innovation, especially on the truck side, and it's coming not only from within the industry, from outside the industry as well. So I'm just wondering, with the rail, we haven't seen as much. How do you cultivate that? How do you kind of finance or fund it or aiming to bringing that outside innovation in the industry?

只是跟進槳系統甲板。所以我們看到了很多創新，尤其是在卡車方面，而且不僅來自行業內部，也來自行業外部。所以我只是想知道，對於鐵路，我們還沒有看到那麼多。你怎麼培養牠？您如何為其融資或資助，或旨在將這種外部創新帶入行業？

Yes, Jairam. This is Lance. Maybe we're just not doing an adequate job of talking about it, but our new CIO and Rahul Jalali. He is an exceptionally talented tech executive. And what he's got us doing is amplifying our internal development by speeding it up through minimally viable product, by being product- and platform-centric and by deep and clear partnership with his internal customers so that we can tease out more rapidly and more fulsomely what's the next step in our tech investment and how quickly can we bring it to market. There are so many examples of that. We've talked a bit about some this morning, the UPGo app for drivers on our ramps, intermodal vision, the mobile apps for our crew base, UP Vision, I mean, just on and on and on.

是的，杰拉姆。這是蘭斯。也許我們只是沒有充分談論它，而是我們的新 CIO 和 Rahul Jalali。他是一位才華橫溢的技術主管。他讓我們做的是通過最低限度可行的產品來加速我們的內部開發，以產品和平台為中心，並與他的內部客戶建立深入和明確的合作夥伴關係，這樣我們就可以更快更全面地梳理出什麼是我們技術投資的下一步，以及我們能多快將其推向市場。有很多這樣的例子。今天早上我們談了一些，坡道司機的 UPGo 應用程序，多式聯運視覺，我們工作人員基地的移動應用程序，UP Vision，我的意思是，不斷地不斷。

The second way that's happening is through becoming much more open and embracing of external tech expertise. Whether that's partnering up with Google, whether that's partnering up with somebody like TuSimple, there's any number of ways that we're exercising those kinds of partnerships so that we can learn from and absorb their expertise into our business. Tech is touching every aspect of our business right now in an accelerated and accelerating manner. And we're really, really excited about that.

第二種方式是變得更加開放並接受外部技術專業知識。無論是與 Google 合作，還是與 TuSimple 之類的公司合作，我們都可以通過多種方式開展此類合作，以便我們可以從他們的專業知識中學習並將其吸收到我們的業務中。科技現在正以加速和加速的方式觸及我們業務的方方面面。我們對此感到非常非常興奮。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, Jennifer. So if I go back to the quarters where you hit the 55% operating target, volumes were about 5%, 6% above, let's say, 4Q levels. So is that -- but it looks like there are other things that is helping margins next -- in this year, right, like not in productivity and pricing to some extent. So I'm kind of trying to understand how much is the volume impact in that 55.5% OR target. And how much of these other initiatives in?

好的。就像後續行動一樣，詹妮弗。因此，如果我回到你達到 55% 運營目標的季度，銷量大約是 5%，比第四季度的水平高出 6%。就是這樣——但看起來接下來還有其他因素在幫助利潤率——在今年，對，就像在某種程度上不是生產力和定價。所以我有點想了解這個 55.5% OR 目標的數量影響有多大。這些其他舉措中有多少？

Let me start, Jennifer, with the mantra that you and I talk about all the time. Our ability to generate attractive margins is built on a 3-legged stool. We look for volume growth, which we get to leverage. We look for productivity, which we can leverage through volume growth and we can find in other ways, and we got to have pricing that supports it as well. In 2022, we're going to see benefit from all 3.

詹妮弗，讓我從你和我一直在談論的咒語開始。我們產生有吸引力的利潤的能力是建立在一個三足凳上的。我們尋求銷量增長，我們可以利用這一點。我們尋找生產力，我們可以通過銷量增長來利用它，我們可以通過其他方式找到它，我們也必須有支持它的定價。在 2022 年，我們將看到這三個方面都受益。

Yes. And I think that's part of why we're talking more about incremental margins as well is because of that focus on growth, the new business opportunities that's coming to us, being able to move that really efficiently, pricing it well and then dropping that to the bottom line.

是的。我認為這也是我們更多地談論增量利潤的部分原因，因為我們關注增長，新的商業機會即將到來，能夠真正有效地轉移它，很好地定價，然後將其降低到底線。

Our final question today comes from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們今天的最後一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Kauffman。

Jennifer and Lance, you addressed the question, what if congestion doesn't get better and the system doesn't get more fluid, and you mentioned that's part of your contingency. I'm going to ask it the other way. What if it actually does? Because sometimes when growth bounces back too quickly, the system can be challenged. You talked about the hiring of crews. You talked about how your crew boards are going to ease up as you move through this. But can you talk about -- it takes 6 to 9 months, right, to train a new T&E crew. What kind of planning do you have to put in place if the volumes come in a couple of percentage points above what you're looking for? And what kind of constraints would you be running into on the network?

詹妮弗和蘭斯，你們解決了這個問題，如果擁堵沒有改善並且系統沒有變得更加流暢怎麼辦，你們提到這是你們應急的一部分。我要換個方式問。如果真的發生了怎麼辦？因為有時當增長反彈過快時，系統可能會受到挑戰。你談到了僱傭船員。你談到了你的工作人員委員會在你經歷這個過程時將如何放鬆。但是你能談談嗎 - 培訓一個新的 T&E 工作人員需要 6 到 9 個月，對吧。如果銷量比您的預期高幾個百分點，您需要製定什麼樣的計劃？你會在網絡上遇到什麼樣的限制？

That's a great question, Jeff. And it's one that we scenario plan out for ourselves periodically as we go through our planning cycles within the year. First thing I would note is we worked really hard to reduce the amount of time it takes to get [everybody] off the street and to be qualified as a conductor. I think we've got that knocked down to something like 14 weeks. And so that's a substantial move in the right direction.

這是一個很好的問題，傑夫。當我們在一年內完成計劃週期時，我們會定期為自己制定計劃。首先我要指出的是，我們非常努力地減少讓 [每個人] 離開街道並獲得指揮資格所需的時間。我想我們已經把這個時間縮短到了 14 週。所以這是朝著正確方向邁出的一大步。

Item number 2 is if we see volume overwhelming our ability to satisfy it, we've always got price as a lever that we can use that discourages some amount of that volume and helps it find a different home. And then we've got a lot of levers that we pull when it comes to managing the inventory, which is really the mechanism that bogs down the network. It's not the fact that more volume wants to move through the network. It's if that volume doesn't move fluidly and it builds up inventory. And now we're using our capacity in a really unproductive way. We've got a ton of mechanisms that we've developed over the past 3 years to make sure that inventory, if it comes on us, it moves through. And if there's too much coming on us for any one individual customer, we work directly with that customer to get them back in the box.

第 2 項是如果我們看到數量超過了我們滿足它的能力，我們總是將價格作為一個槓桿，我們可以使用它來阻止一定數量的數量並幫助它找到不同的家。然後，在管理庫存時，我們有很多槓桿可以拉動，這確實是使網絡陷入困境的機制。這並不是更多的交易量想要通過網絡移動的事實。如果該數量沒有流暢地移動並且它會增加庫存。現在我們正在以一種非常低效的方式使用我們的能力。在過去的 3 年中，我們開發了大量的機制來確保庫存，如果它出現在我們身上，它就會通過。如果對任何一個單獨的客戶來說，我們有太多的東西，我們會直接與該客戶合作，讓他們回到盒子裡。

Yes, Lance. I mean, you hit all the key points. The only thing I'd add is it's less about the absolute volume number, and it's also about where the volume comes on and in what products. And so that's where I think the team did a great job in 2021 being agile around that. We weren't expecting the chip shortages. We didn't expect the supply chain congestion. And the coal volumes were a blessing that came to us as well as increase on the grain side, and so to be able to pivot quickly and be agile. That's why it's so critical that Kenny and Eric are linked that they has in terms of talking about the trends, talking about the plan, and then executing to that.

是的，蘭斯。我的意思是，你擊中了所有的關鍵點。我唯一要補充的是，它與絕對數量無關，而且還與數量的來源和產品有關。這就是我認為團隊在 2021 年在這方面做得很好的地方。我們沒有預料到芯片短缺。我們沒想到會出現供應鏈擁堵。煤炭量對我們來說是一種祝福，並且在糧食方面增加了，因此能夠快速轉動並靈活。這就是為什麼肯尼和埃里克在談論趨勢、談論計劃以及執行這些方面的聯繫如此重要的原因。

And just a follow-up to that. I heard Kenny recently talk about the great resignation and the challenge with bringing back from the furlough board. Have you worked your way through most of the furlough boards and have your arms around your ability to bring back employees? Or is that something that we're still probably going to be dealing with in the coming quarters as volume begins to come back?

這只是一個後續行動。我最近聽到肯尼談到了偉大的辭職以及從休假委員會中恢復過來所面臨的挑戰。您是否已經通過了大多數休假委員會的工作，並且您是否有能力帶回員工？或者隨著交易量開始回升，我們可能在接下來的幾個季度中仍然需要處理這個問題？

No, Jeff. We've largely depleted those furlough boards. The folks that we have called back are in training classes now, and we're really focusing -- in terms of incremental adds to our network from a crew base, it's going to be on the new hire side.

不，傑夫。我們已經在很大程度上耗盡了那些休假委員會。我們召回的人現在正在參加培訓班，我們真的很專注——就從船員基地增加我們的網絡而言，它將在新員工方面。

Thank you, everyone. This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Lance Fritz for closing comments.

謝謝大家。問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Lance Fritz 以結束評論。

Rob, thank you very much. You did a wonderful job for us today again, and thank you all for joining us today and for your questions. We're looking forward to talking with you again in April when we discuss our first quarter results. Until then, I wish you all good health, please take care. Thank you.

羅伯，非常感謝。你們今天再次為我們做了出色的工作，感謝大家今天加入我們並提出問題。我們期待在 4 月份討論我們的第一季度業績時再次與您交談。在此之前，祝大家身體健康，請保重。謝謝你。

Thank you, Mr. Fritz. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你，弗里茨先生。女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。你可以在這個時候斷開你的線路，並度過美好的一天。