聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Union Pacific's Third Quarter Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

問候。歡迎參加聯合太平洋的第三季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在 Union Pacific 網站上找到。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman, President and CEO for Union Pacific. Thank you. Mr. Fritz, you may now begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹您的東道主，聯合太平洋公司董事長、總裁兼首席執行官 Lance Fritz 先生。謝謝你。弗里茨先生，您現在可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, and welcome to Union Pacific's third quarter earnings conference call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，Rob，早上好，歡迎參加聯合太平洋公司第三季度財報電話會議。今天和我一起在奧馬哈的是營銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker； Eric Gehringer，運營執行副總裁；和我們的首席財務官 Jennifer Hamann。

Before discussing results for the quarter, I want to thank our employees for their tireless efforts over the past several months to improve service levels. I'd also note the dedicated service of our craft professionals throughout the recent, very lengthy labor negotiation. The new agreements based on the Presidential Emergency Board recommendations reward our employees for their hard work, and with roughly half of our unions ratifying agreements, we are looking forward to complete this process and move forward.

在討論本季度業績之前，我要感謝我們的員工在過去幾個月中為提高服務水平所做的不懈努力。我還注意到我們的工藝專業人員在最近非常漫長的勞資談判中提供的專業服務。基於總統緊急事務委員會建議的新協議獎勵我們員工的辛勤工作，大約一半的工會批准協議，我們期待完成這一過程並繼續前進。

Now turning to our third quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2022 third quarter net income of $1.9 billion or $3.05 per share. These results include the impact of a $114 million charge for prior period estimates related to the new labor agreements. Excluding that charge, adjusted net income is $2 billion or $3.19 per share. This compares to third quarter 2021 results of $1.7 billion or $2.57 per share.

現在轉向我們的第三季度業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋報告 2022 年第三季度淨收入為 19 億美元或每股 3.05 美元。這些結果包括與新勞動協議相關的前期估計費用 1.14 億美元的影響。不計該費用，調整後的淨收入為 20 億美元或每股 3.19 美元。相比之下，2021 年第三季度的業績為 17 億美元或每股 2.57 美元。

Our adjusted third quarter operating ratio of 58.2% is 190 basis points higher than 2021. Costs related to higher inflation and ongoing network inefficiencies were offset by fuel surcharge revenue, volume growth and strong core pricing gains to produce adjusted operating income growth of 13%. We made real progress during the quarter to increase network fluidity and better meet customer demand. And as you'll hear from the team, we're continuing to take steps in the fourth quarter to better meet that demand and drive costs from the network. While the year hasn't played out as originally planned, our volumes have outpaced our peers, demonstrating the growth mindset that we're instilling within our organization.

我們調整後的第三季度運營率為 58.2%，比 2021 年高出 190 個基點。與更高的通脹和持續的網絡效率低下相關的成本被燃油附加費收入、銷量增長和強勁的核心定價收益所抵消，從而使調整後的運營收入增長了 13%。我們在本季度取得了實際進展，以增加網絡流動性並更好地滿足客戶需求。正如您從團隊那裡聽到的那樣，我們將在第四季度繼續採取措施，以更好地滿足這一需求並降低網絡成本。雖然這一年並沒有按原計劃進行，但我們的銷量已經超過了同行，這表明我們正在向我們的組織灌輸成長心態。

So with that, let me turn it over to Kenny for an update on the business environment.

因此，讓我把它交給肯尼，了解商業環境的最新情況。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. Third quarter volume was up 3% compared to a year ago as carloads increased across all 3 of our business segments. Although overall volume was up, we undoubtedly had less demand on the table as we continue to improve service across the network. Freight revenue was up 18% driven by higher fuel surcharges and strong pricing gains.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早上好。由於我們所有三個業務部門的載貨量增加，第三季度的銷量與一年前相比增長了 3%。儘管整體交易量有所增加，但隨著我們繼續改進整個網絡的服務，毫無疑問，我們對桌面的需求減少了。由於燃油附加費上漲和價格強勁上漲，貨運收入增長了 18%。

Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups. Starting with bulk, revenue for the quarter was up 16% compared to last year, driven by a 14% increase in average revenue per car, reflecting higher fuel surcharges and solid core pricing gains. Volume was up 2% year-over-year. Coal and renewable carloads grew 5% year-over-year driven by continued favorable natural gas prices and 2 contract wins that started on January 1.

讓我們仔細看看這些業務組中的每一個。從散貨開始，本季度的收入與去年相比增長了 16%，這得益於每輛車平均收入增長 14%，這反映了更高的燃油附加費和堅實的核心定價收益。銷量同比增長 2%。受持續有利的天然氣價格和從 1 月 1 日開始的 2 份合同中標的推動，煤炭和可再生能源載貨量同比增長 5%。

Grain and grain products volume was up 3% with strong domestic feed grain and increased biofuel shipments for renewable diesel. Fertilizer carloads were down 7% year-over-year due to reduced shipments of export and domestic consumed potash. And lastly, food and refrigerated volume remained flat in the quarter.

由於國內飼料穀物強勁以及可再生柴油的生物燃料出貨量增加，穀物和穀物產品的銷量增長了 3%。由於出口和國內消費鉀肥的出貨量減少，化肥載貨量同比下降 7%。最後，本季度食品和冷藏量保持平穩。

Moving on to Industrial. Industrial revenue was up 15% for the quarter driven by a 4% increase in volume and an 11% improvement in average revenue per car due to higher fuel surcharges and core pricing gains. Energy and specialized shipments were down 3% compared to 2021, driven by pure petroleum shipments, primarily due to regulatory changes in the Mexico market. Volumes for Forest Products was down 2% year-over-year, primarily driven by lower demand for corrugated boxes. This was partially offset by positive year-over-year lumber shipments.

繼續工業。本季度工業收入增長 15%，原因是銷量增長 4%，並且由於燃油附加費增加和核心定價收益增加，每輛車的平均收入增長 11%。與 2021 年相比，能源和專業貨物的出貨量下降了 3%，這主要是由於墨西哥市場的監管變化，這主要是受純石油出貨量的推動。林產品銷量同比下降 2%，主要是由於對瓦楞紙箱的需求下降。這被同比增長的木材出貨量部分抵消。

Industrial Chemicals & Plastic shipments were up 8% compared to 2021 due to new business wins, customer expansion and market demand. Metals and minerals volumes continued to deliver robust year-over-year growth. Volume was up 7% compared to last year, primarily driven by an increase in frac sand shipments, growth in construction materials and metals business development.

由於新業務的贏得、客戶擴展和市場需求，工業化學品和塑料的出貨量與 2021 年相比增長了 8%。金屬和礦產量繼續實現強勁的同比增長。與去年相比，銷量增長了 7%，主要受壓裂砂出貨量增長、建築材料和金屬業務發展增長的推動。

Turning to Premium. Revenue for the quarter was up 25% on a 3% increase in volume. Average revenue per car increased 21% due primarily to higher fuel surcharge revenue and core pricing gains. Automotive volume was up 19%, driven by strengthening production and inventory replenishment. Finished vehicles increased by 33%, and auto's parts increased by 11% against a softer comparison from last year. Intermodal volume was flat. Domestic intermodal was down 3% due to softening demand driven by a 16% decline in parcel shipments. However, International volume strengthened by 4% from ocean carriers, shipping more freight to inland terminals.

轉向溢價。本季度收入增長 25%，銷量增長 3%。每輛車的平均收入增長 21%，主要是由於燃油附加費收入增加和核心定價收益增加。在加強生產和補充庫存的推動下，汽車銷量增長了 19%。與去年相比，成品車增長 33%，汽車零部件增長 11%。多式聯運量持平。由於包裹出貨量下降 16% 導致需求疲軟，國內多式聯運下降 3%。然而，海運承運人的國際貨運量增加了 4%，將更多貨物運往內陸碼頭。

Now moving to our outlook for the rest of 2022. At a macro level, we will be closely watching our markets to see how inflation and interest rates will impact our overall volume. But here is where we sit today with our markets. Let's start out with our bulk commodities. We expect biofuel shipments for renewable diesel to continue to grow due to solid market demand and business development wins.

現在轉向我們對 2022 年剩餘時間的展望。在宏觀層面上，我們將密切關注我們的市場，以了解通脹和利率將如何影響我們的整體交易量。但這裡是我們今天與我們的市場坐在一起的地方。讓我們從大宗商品開始。由於強勁的市場需求和業務發展的勝利，我們預計可再生柴油的生物燃料出貨量將繼續增長。

For coal, we anticipate continued favorable natural gas prices to generate demand for both domestic and export shipments. However, the opportunity to capture demand is dependent on the available resources. And our outlook for grain is also dependent on our service recovery. But as we've mentioned before, we have a tough comp in the fourth quarter as exports were strong last year.

就煤炭而言，我們預計天然氣價格將繼續有利，從而產生對國內和出口運輸的需求。然而，捕捉需求的機會取決於可用資源。我們對糧食的前景也取決於我們的服務復甦。但正如我們之前提到的，由於去年出口強勁，我們在第四季度的競爭很艱難。

Moving on to Industrial. The forecast for Industrial production is decelerating, and demand is softening in forest products. However, we expect construction to be a positive due to strong project demand in the south. And lastly, for Premium, we are closely monitoring domestic intermodal demand as spot truck rates fall and inventories climb. We expect parcel and truckload demand to remain soft as consumer preferences have shifted more to experiences versus goods.

繼續工業。工業生產的預測正在減速，林產品的需求正在減弱。然而，由於南部的強勁項目需求，我們預計建設將是積極的。最後，對於 Premium，隨著現貨卡車運費下降和庫存攀升，我們正在密切關注國內多式聯運需求。我們預計包裹和整車需求將保持疲軟，因為消費者偏好更多地轉向體驗而非商品。

We're also watching the international markets closely, but we expect to be positive in the fourth quarter due to easier comps. And we expect growth in automotive to be driven by improving supply for parts and inventory replenishment. Overall, we still foresee a favorable demand environment for the fourth quarter. Crew availability continues to improve, which will help us capture more growth and support our business development wins as we head into 2023.

我們也在密切關注國際市場，但由於比較容易，我們預計第四季度將是積極的。我們預計汽車行業的增長將受到改善零部件供應和庫存補充的推動。總體而言，我們仍預計第四季度的需求環境良好。船員可用性繼續提高，這將有助於我們在進入 2023 年時獲得更多增長並支持我們的業務發展勝利。

With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

有了這個，我將把它交給 Eric 來審查我們的運營績效。

Thanks, Kenny, and good morning. Turning to Slide 9. Our year-to-date safety results are demonstrating meaningful and sustained improvement compared to 2021.

謝謝，肯尼，早上好。轉到幻燈片 9。與 2021 年相比，我們年初至今的安全結果顯示出有意義且持續的改進。

Safety impacts every facet of our business: our employees, our customers and our shareholders. While our safety management system is promoting the right culture, our #1 priority remains returning every employee home safely at the end of the day.

安全影響我們業務的方方面面：我們的員工、客戶和股東。雖然我們的安全管理系統正在促進正確的文化，但我們的第一要務仍然是在一天結束時讓每位員工安全回家。

Taking a look at our current network performance on Slide 10. Our operating metrics steadily improved through the third quarter, aided by improving crew availability from hiring initiatives, lower recrew rates and improved crew utilization. Our hiring and training pipeline is strong. To date, we have graduated 890 employees and have an additional 518 currently in training, all expected to graduate by January of 2023. We have now hired 1,408 new transportation employees, exceeding our goal for the year.

在幻燈片 10 上查看我們當前的網絡性能。我們的運營指標在第三季度穩步改善，這得益於通過招聘計劃提高船員可用性、降低船員率和提高船員利用率。我們的招聘和培訓渠道很強大。迄今為止，我們已經有 890 名員工畢業，另有 518 人目前正在接受培訓，預計將於 2023 年 1 月畢業。我們現在已經僱傭了 1,408 名新的運輸員工，超過了我們今年的目標。

Freight car velocity is approaching 200 miles per day, up from its low in April. Even more encouraging, the improvement came while moving 10,000 more weekly carloads. By utilizing approximately 250 borrowed out employees and adding new graduates to some of our challenged crew locations, we have been able to add more coal and grain sets back into the network. We also reduced our recrew rates from a peak of 11% in April to now around 7%. Exiting the third quarter, the network is in a more solid and fluid state than earlier in the year. Going forward, we are building upon these improved results to drive excess cost from the network.

貨運車的速度接近每天 200 英里，高於 4 月份的低點。更令人鼓舞的是，這種改善是在每週運送 10,000 多輛汽車的同時實現的。通過利用大約 250 名借來的員工並向我們一些面臨挑戰的工作地點增加新畢業生，我們已經能夠將更多的煤炭和穀物組重新添加到網絡中。我們還將復員率從 4 月份的峰值 11% 降低到現在的 7% 左右。退出第三季度，該網絡比今年早些時候處於更加穩固和流動的狀態。展望未來，我們將在這些改進結果的基礎上推動網絡成本過高。

Now let's review our key performance metrics for the quarter, starting on Slide 11, which remained challenged when compared to 2021 even considering the relatively easy comparison from last year's wildfire and weather events. However, both freight car velocity and manifest and auto trip plan compliance strengthened sequentially from last quarter's results.

現在讓我們回顧一下本季度的關鍵績效指標，從幻燈片 11 開始，與 2021 年相比，即使考慮到與去年的野火和天氣事件相對容易比較，該指標仍然面臨挑戰。然而，貨運車的速度和艙單以及汽車旅行計劃的合規性都比上一季度的結果有所提高。

Intermodal trip plan compliance was flat sequentially and remains impacted by persistent supply chain challenges, resulting in elevated chassis street times and container ramp to well. We continue to make progress at the West Coast ports as the number of stacked containers decline.

多式聯運旅行計劃的合規性依次持平，並且仍然受到持續的供應鏈挑戰的影響，導致底盤街道時間增加和集裝箱坡道到井。隨著堆疊集裝箱數量的減少，我們繼續在西海岸港口取得進展。

Turning to Slide 12, to review our network efficiency metrics. During the third quarter, as performance improved, we were able to remove and stage locomotives across the network to improve overall fleet utilization. As a result, locomotive productivity did improve sequentially although remains below last year's metric. Entering the fourth quarter, as we continue to improve train speed and other measures, locomotive productivity will continue to strengthen as well. Third quarter workforce productivity was flat as both the labor force and car miles increased.

轉到幻燈片 12，查看我們的網絡效率指標。在第三季度，隨著性能的提高，我們能夠在整個網絡中拆除和停放機車，以提高整體機隊利用率。因此，機車生產率確實環比提高，但仍低於去年的指標。進入四季度，隨著列車提速等措施的不斷提升，機車產能也將繼續增強。隨著勞動力和汽車里程的增加，第三季度的勞動力生產率持平。

Train length improved 1% compared to third quarter 2021 as the team utilized longer trains to handle increasing volumes. We now anticipate completing an additional 4 sidings in 2022 on top of the 20 sidings in our original plan. This will bring the total sidings completed since 2019 to 80. These sidings are a key enabler of our ability to effectively use our resources and drive productivity.

與 2021 年第三季度相比，列車長度增加了 1%，因為該團隊使用更長的列車來處理不斷增加的貨運量。我們現在預計在 2022 年在我們原計劃中的 20 條壁板之上再完成 4 條壁板。這將使自 2019 年以來完成的壁板總數達到 80 條。這些壁板是我們有效利用資源和提高生產力的關鍵推動力。

Wrapping up on Slide 13. I'm encouraged by the progress we've made, but our work is not yet done. Using our PSR principles, we will further improve our service product and build a more resilient network. Our trajectory to this point reflects the great team we have at Union Pacific, and my thanks goes out to everyone for their efforts and dedication.

結束幻燈片 13。我對我們取得的進展感到鼓舞，但我們的工作尚未完成。使用我們的 PSR 原則，我們將進一步改進我們的服務產品並建立一個更具彈性的網絡。我們到現在的軌跡反映了我們在聯合太平洋擁有的偉大團隊，我感謝每個人的努力和奉獻。

To finish 2022, we remain focused on further reducing excess inventory, safely improving operational efficiency and using our crews and locomotives even more effectively. Ultimately, as is always the goal, we need to run the network and manage our assets in a more than volume variable manner. To that point, we are storing excess international intermodal well cars as the expected levels of volume did not materialize.

到 2022 年結束時，我們將繼續專注於進一步減少過剩庫存、安全地提高運營效率並更有效地使用我們的機組人員和機車。最終，我們的目標始終是，我們需要以一種不只是數量可變的方式來運行網絡和管理我們的資產。到那時，我們正在儲存多餘的國際多式聯運油井車，因為預期的數量水平沒有實現。

While at the same time, to capture demand in other areas, we are bringing cars out of storage. Additionally, to support bulk demand, we will continue hiring programs and send additional borrowed-out employees to crew-challenged locations in our northern region. As we wrap up the year and I look forward, I am confident that the foundation we are building will provide a better service product for our customers.

同時，為了捕捉其他領域的需求，我們正在將汽車從倉庫中取出。此外，為了支持大量需求，我們將繼續招聘計劃，並將更多藉來的員工派遣到我們北部地區船員面臨挑戰的地點。當我們結束這一年並展望未來時，我相信我們正在建立的基礎將為我們的客戶提供更好的服務產品。

With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

有了這個，我將把它交給詹妮弗來審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. I'm going to start on Slide 15 with a walk down of our third quarter operating ratio and earnings per share. Our reported operating ratio of 59.9% and earnings per share of $3.05 includes a $114 million change in estimate related to the Presidential Emergency Board recommendation and subsequent ratified and tentative labor agreements. At a high level, the $114 million charge negatively impacted third quarter operating ratio by 170 basis points and reduced EPS by $0.14. For more granular information on the charge, please refer to the appendix slide at the back of the presentation deck. It's important to note, however, that while our general wage accruals weren't far off the PEB recommendation, we did not accrue for the $1,000 annual bonus payments.

謝謝，埃里克，早上好。我將從幻燈片 15 開始，介紹我們第三季度的運營比率和每股收益。我們報告的運營比率為 59.9%，每股收益為 3.05 美元，其中包括與總統緊急委員會的建議以及隨後批准和暫定的勞工協議相關的 1.14 億美元的估計變化。在較高的水平上，1.14 億美元的費用對第三季度的運營比率產生了 170 個基點的負面影響，並使每股收益減少了 0.14 美元。有關費用的詳細信息，請參閱演示文稿背面的附錄幻燈片。然而，重要的是要注意，雖然我們的一般工資應計與 PEB 的建議相差不遠，但我們並沒有為 1,000 美元的年度獎金支付應計。

Core results in the quarter continue to reflect inflation and network inefficiencies as our operating ratio was unfavorably impacted 310 basis points but contributed $0.20 to EPS. Importantly, we did make sequential core improvement in our operating ratio of 40 basis points versus the second quarter. Decreasing fuel prices in the quarter and the roughly 2-month lag in our fuel surcharge program favorably impacted our quarterly operating ratio by 70 basis points and added $0.37 to EPS. Finally, third quarter results also include the favorable comparison to last year's weather and wildfire event, which adds 50 basis points to OR and $0.05 to EPS.

本季度的核心業績繼續反映通貨膨脹和網絡效率低下，因為我們的運營比率受到不利影響 310 個基點，但為每股收益貢獻了 0.20 美元。重要的是，與第二季度相比，我們的營業比率確實連續核心改善了 40 個基點。本季度燃油價格下跌以及我們的燃油附加費計劃延遲了大約 2 個月，這對我們的季度運營比率產生了 70 個基點的有利影響，並使每股收益增加了 0.37 美元。最後，第三季度的業績還包括與去年的天氣和野火事件的有利比較，這使 OR 增加了 50 個基點，EPS 增加了 0.05 美元。

Looking now at our third quarter income statement on Slide 16, where we provide both reported and adjusted numbers that exclude the impact of the labor charge. Throughout my remarks, I will speak to the adjusted results. Operating revenue totaled $6.6 billion, up 18% versus 2021 on 3% year-over-year volume growth. As we have seen throughout the year, higher fuel prices are the primary contributor to higher operating expenses, which increased 22% to $3.8 billion. Excluding the impact of higher fuel prices, our expenses were up 10% in the quarter.

現在看看我們在幻燈片 16 上的第三季度損益表，我們在其中提供了排除人工費用影響的報告和調整後的數字。在我的發言中，我將談到調整後的結果。營業收入總計 66 億美元，與 2021 年相比增長 18%，銷量同比增長 3%。正如我們全年所見，燃油價格上漲是運營費用增加的主要原因，運營費用增加了 22%，達到 38 億美元。排除燃油價格上漲的影響，我們的費用在本季度增長了 10%。

Third quarter adjusted operating income totaled $2.7 billion, a 13% increase versus 2021. Other income increased $86 million driven by higher real estate income, including a $35 million gain on sale and pension benefit. Income tax expense increased 13% as a result of higher pretax income, partially offset by corporate income tax rate reductions in 3 of our operating states. As a result of those changes, we now expect our full year tax rate to be around 23%. Adjusted net income of $2 billion increased 18% versus 2021 and adjusted earnings per share was up 24% to $3.19. Operating revenue, operating income, net income and earnings per share were all quarterly records.

第三季度調整後的營業收入總計 27 億美元，比 2021 年增長 13%。其他收入增加了 8600 萬美元，這是由於房地產收入增加，包括 3500 萬美元的銷售收益和養老金福利。由於稅前收入增加，所得稅費用增加了 13%，部分被我們三個運營州的企業所得稅稅率降低所抵消。由於這些變化，我們現在預計全年稅率約為 23%。調整後的淨收入為 20 億美元，較 2021 年增長 18%，調整後的每股收益增長 24% 至 3.19 美元。營業收入、營業收入、淨收入和每股收益均為季度記錄。

Looking more closely at third quarter freight revenue, Slide 17 provides a breakdown, which totaled $6.1 billion, up 18% versus 2021. Year-over-year volume gains, supported by our business development efforts and sequentially improving operational fluidity, increased freight revenue 325 basis points.

更仔細地觀察第三季度的貨運收入，幻燈片 17 提供了細分，總額為 61 億美元，比 2021 年增長 18%。在我們的業務發展努力和運營流動性的連續改善的支持下，貨運收入同比增長 325基點。

Fuel surcharge revenue impacted revenue 13 points, reflecting the impact of higher year-over-year diesel prices and the 2-month lag in our recovery program. Total fuel surcharge revenue was $1.2 billion in the quarter. Strong pricing gains when combined with a slightly negative business mix drove 200 basis points of freight revenue growth. Lower petroleum shipments, combined with higher rock and auto part shipments, contributed to the negative mix.

燃油附加費收入影響收入 13 個百分點，反映了柴油價格同比上漲和我們的複蘇計劃滯後 2 個月的影響。本季度燃油附加費總收入為 12 億美元。強勁的定價收益加上略微負面的業務組合推動貨運收入增長 200 個基點。石油出貨量下降，加上岩石和汽車零部件出貨量增加，導致了負面組合。

From a price standpoint, we have now lapped the positive benefit from coal contracts indexed to natural gas prices. So the year-over-year benefit is minimal. And as we experienced in the second quarter, network fluidity limited the upside for both price and mix. Setting these headwinds aside, we are confident that we will yield price dollars that exceed inflation dollars even with a higher inflationary hurdle than expected at the start of the year.

從價格的角度來看，我們現在已經從與天然氣價格掛鉤的煤炭合同中受益。因此，同比收益微乎其微。正如我們在第二季度所經歷的那樣，網絡流動性限制了價格和組合的上行空間。撇開這些不利因素不談，我們有信心，即使通脹障礙比年初預期的要高，我們也會產生超過通脹美元的價格美元。

Moving on to Slide 18, which provides a summary of our third quarter adjusted operating expenses where the primary driver again this quarter was fuel, up 71% on a 67% increase in fuel prices. While we saw fuel prices come down some in the quarter, our average quarterly fuel price was $3.96 per gallon, only $0.07 lower than second quarter's average price. Our fuel consumption rate achieved an all-time quarterly record in the quarter, improving 1% versus 2021 as a result of productivity gains and a more fuel-efficient business mix.

轉到幻燈片 18，它提供了我們第三季度調整後運營費用的摘要，其中本季度的主要驅動因素再次是燃料，燃料價格上漲了 71%，燃料價格上漲了 67%。雖然我們看到燃料價格在本季度有所下降，但我們的平均季度燃料價格為每加侖 3.96 美元，僅比第二季度的平均價格低 0.07 美元。由於生產力提高和更節能的業務組合，我們的燃料消耗率在本季度創下了歷史季度記錄，與 2021 年相比提高了 1%。

Looking closer at the other expense lines, adjusted compensation and benefits expense was up 12% versus 2021. This includes an additional $19 million related to this quarter's accrual for wage increases and annual bonus. Total third quarter workforce levels increased 3%. Management, engineering and mechanical workforces grew 3%, while train and engine crews were up 5%, primarily reflecting year-over-year increases in our training pipeline.

仔細觀察其他支出項目，調整後的薪酬和福利支出與 2021 年相比增長了 12%。這包括與本季度應計工資和年度獎金相關的額外 1900 萬美元。第三季度總勞動力水平增加了 3%。管理、工程和機械勞動力增長了 3%，而火車和發動機人員增長了 5%，主要反映了我們培訓渠道的同比增長。

As you heard from Eric, we have now exceeded our 2022 hiring goals. Cost per employee came in higher than anticipated, up 8%, primarily driven by wage inflation. We also experienced continued cost pressures related to network inefficiencies with higher overtime and borrow-out costs. For the fourth quarter, we expect the year-over-year increase to be around 7%, in line with tentative and ratified wage increases. Purchased services and materials expense remained elevated, up 23%, driven by higher cost to maintain a larger active locomotive fleet, volume-related purchase transportation expense associated with our Loup subsidiary and inflation.

正如您從 Eric 那裡聽到的，我們現在已經超過了 2022 年的招聘目標。每位員工的成本高於預期，增長 8%，主要受工資上漲的推動。我們還經歷了與網絡效率低下相關的持續成本壓力，以及更高的加班和借貸成本。對於第四季度，我們預計同比增長約為 7%，與暫定和批准的工資增長一致。採購的服務和材料費用仍然較高，增長了 23%，原因是維持更大的活躍機車車隊的成本增加、與我們的 Loup 子公司相關的與數量相關的採購運輸費用以及通貨膨脹。

Equipment and other rents decreased 1% driven by higher equity income that more than offset increased car hire expenses. Other expense grew 18% in the quarter, a bit higher than we anticipated as a result of increased casualty expenses associated with freight loss and damage and personal injury. For the fourth quarter, we expect other expense to be flat versus 2021, as we are anticipating the receipt of an insurance settlement for last year's bridge fire. Overall, inflation and cost inefficiencies offset the benefits of volume leverage and resulted in fuel-adjusted incremental margins of just 2%. Although not the results we know we can achieve, it still reflects positive progress from the second quarter and provides us with momentum as we wrap up 2022.

設備和其他租金下降 1%，原因是股本收入增加抵消了汽車租賃費用的增加。由於與貨運損失和損壞以及人身傷害相關的傷亡費用增加，本季度其他費用增長了 18%，略高於我們的預期。對於第四季度，我們預計其他費用將與 2021 年持平，因為我們預計會收到去年橋樑火災的保險賠付。總體而言，通貨膨脹和成本效率低下抵消了數量槓桿的好處，導致燃料調整後的增量利潤率僅為 2%。雖然不是我們知道我們可以實現的結果，但它仍然反映了第二季度的積極進展，並在我們結束 2022 年時為我們提供了動力。

Turning to Slide 19 and our cash flows. Cash from operations through the third quarter increased 9% to $7.1 billion. Our comparable cash flow conversion rate was 80% and free cash flow totaled $2.1 billion. Although this is a decrease of $517 million versus 2021, it includes $745 million of increased cash capital spending and $317 million in higher dividends. With the increased capital spending to date, we now expect full year 2022 capital to be around $3.4 billion, up slightly from our prior guidance, but well within our overall guidance of less than 15% of revenue.

轉向幻燈片 19 和我們的現金流。截至第三季度的運營現金增長 9% 至 71 億美元。我們的可比現金流轉換率為 80%，自由現金流總計 21 億美元。儘管與 2021 年相比減少了 5.17 億美元，但其中包括 7.45 億美元的現金資本支出增加和 3.17 億美元的更高股息。隨著迄今為止資本支出的增加，我們現在預計 2022 年全年資本將約為 34 億美元，略高於我們之前的指導，但在我們低於收入 15% 的總體指導範圍內。

Year-to-date, shareholders have received $7.9 billion through dividends and share repurchases. This level of cash returns demonstrates our firm commitment to rewarding shareholders with strong returns. Related to share repurchases, we now expect to buy back roughly $6.5 billion in 2022. Although we repurchased shares at a strong pace in the third quarter and expect that to continue for the remainder of the year, we have been impacted by higher-than-anticipated inflationary pressures and service costs.

年初至今，股東已通過股息和股票回購獲得 79 億美元。這一水平的現金回報表明了我們以豐厚回報回報股東的堅定承諾。與股票回購相關，我們現在預計在 2022 年回購大約 65 億美元。儘管我們在第三季度以強勁的速度回購股票，並預計在今年剩餘時間裡將繼續，但我們受到了高於預期的通脹壓力和服務成本。

Lastly, we finished the third quarter with a comparable adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.8x as we continue to maintain a strong investment-grade credit rating. In fact, during the quarter, we received an upgrade from Moody's to A3, and we are now A-rated across all 3 credit agencies. Also during the quarter, we issued $1.9 billion in debt, which included $600 million of green bonds, our first such issuance.

最後，我們以 2.8 倍的可比調整後債務與 EBITDA 比率結束第三季度，因為我們繼續保持強勁的投資級信用評級。事實上，在本季度，我們從穆迪獲得了 A3 的升級，我們現在在所有 3 家信用機構中都獲得了 A 級評級。同樣在本季度，我們發行了 19 億美元的債務，其中包括 6 億美元的綠色債券，這是我們首次發行此類債券。

Wrapping up on Slide 20. With a little over 2 months left in the year, we are focused on building upon the positive momentum of the third quarter. The operating team is executing on its plan to improve operating performance and capture additional unmet customer demand. As you heard from Kenny, however, markets are softening a bit and that is resulting in a slight reduction in our overall volume expectations, now more in the range of 3% growth for full year 2022. With more clarity on the impact from the new labor agreements, our operating ratio outlook also has changed. We now expect our reported full year operating ratio to be around 60%.

結束幻燈片 20。今年還剩 2 個多月，我們專注於鞏固第三季度的積極勢頭。運營團隊正在執行其計劃，以提高運營績效並捕捉更多未滿足的客戶需求。然而，正如您從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，市場正在略微走軟，這導致我們的整體銷量預期略有下降，現在更多的是在 2022 年全年增長 3% 的範圍內。新的影響更加清晰勞動協議，我們的經營比率前景也發生了變化。我們現在預計我們報告的全年運營比率將在 60% 左右。

As we close out 2022, attention is quickly turning to 2023. While we are not yet ready to share our outlook, it is important to reiterate our long-term view. Our focus on generating strong cash returns and improving ROIC remains unchanged, and we are firmly committed to achieving the goals established at our May 2021 Investor Day of a 55% operating ratio and incremental margins in the mid- to upper 60s. Since establishing those targets and even achieving them in a few quarters, the environment has changed. With higher inflation and a weaker economic outlook, the road to achieving those milestones now is a bit longer, but our road map to success is still the same. Supported by our great employees and the foundation of UP's strong and diverse franchise, we will leverage volume, pricing and productivity to achieve those goals.

隨著 2022 年的結束，注意力迅速轉向 2023 年。雖然我們還沒有準備好分享我們的前景，但重申我們的長期觀點很重要。我們對產生強勁現金回報和提高投資回報率的關注保持不變，我們堅定地致力於實現 2021 年 5 月投資者日確定的目標，即 55% 的營業比率和 60 年代中期至 60 年代中期的利潤率增長。自從制定了這些目標，甚至在幾個季度內實現了這些目標，環境已經發生了變化。隨著通脹上升和經濟前景疲軟，現在實現這些里程碑的道路要長一些，但我們的成功路線圖仍然相同。在我們優秀的員工和 UP 強大而多元化的特許經營基礎的支持下，我們將利用數量、定價和生產力來實現這些目標。

With that, I'll turn it now back to Lance.

有了這個，我現在把它轉回給蘭斯。

Thank you, Jennifer. As you heard from Eric, our year-to-date safety metrics have shown good sustainable improvement, which is very encouraging. However, the most important metric is for all of our employees to go home safely every day. We remain relentless in pursuit of that ultimate and most important goal.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。正如您從 Eric 那裡聽到的，我們年初至今的安全指標顯示出良好的可持續改進，這非常令人鼓舞。但是，最重要的指標是我們所有員工每天都能安全回家。我們仍然堅持不懈地追求這個最終和最重要的目標。

On the sustainability front, during the quarter, we announced a $1 billion agreement with Wabtec to modernize 600 locomotives over the next 3 years. This is a key investment as we work to reduce our carbon footprint and meet our 2030 SBTI targets. This investment also supports what our customers need as each modernized locomotive is significantly more reliable. This is true game-changing for Union Pacific.

在可持續發展方面，在本季度，我們宣布與 Wabtec 達成 10 億美元的協議，在未來 3 年內對 600 台機車進行現代化改造。這是一項關鍵投資，因為我們致力於減少碳足跡並實現 2030 年 SBTI 目標。這項投資還支持我們客戶的需求，因為每輛現代化機車都更加可靠。這對聯合太平洋來說是真正的改變遊戲規則。

As we close out 2022, we look to capitalize on the demand available to us as we sequentially improve operational efficiency. And although we're still putting together our 2023 plan, we like our positioning relative to the industry, considering our great customer wins like Schneider, expected strong coal demand and a positive impact to our construction business associated with the infrastructure bill.

隨著我們在 2022 年結束時，我們希望利用可用的需求來逐步提高運營效率。儘管我們仍在製定 2023 年計劃，但我們喜歡我們相對於行業的定位，考慮到我們像施耐德這樣的巨大客戶贏得，預計強勁的煤炭需求以及與基礎設施法案相關的對我們的建築業務的積極影響。

I also want to reiterate Jennifer's point about our long-term view. We are committed to achieving a 55% operating ratio and mid- to high 60s incremental margins. These goals are achievable. And as we safely and efficiently improve operations, our customers, our employees, our communities and our shareholders will all win together.

我還想重申詹妮弗關於我們長期觀點的觀點。我們致力於實現 55% 的運營率和 60 年代的中高利潤率。這些目標是可以實現的。隨著我們安全有效地改善運營，我們的客戶、員工、社區和股東將共同取得勝利。

With that, let's open up the line for your questions.

有了這個，讓我們為您的問題開闢道路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

So I know you said it's still too early to talk more about 2023, but just given the importance of volume growth and visibility to that, Kenny, maybe I just wanted you to go through some of the areas. You have a little bit more confidence and visibility at this point. And also, can you touch on the impact of the stronger dollar as it relates to the various end markets because it has been disruptive in the past for you?

所以我知道你說現在談論更多關於 2023 年還為時過早，但考慮到銷量增長和可見性的重要性，肯尼，也許我只是想讓你了解一些領域。在這一點上，你有更多的信心和知名度。此外，您能否談談美元走強對各個終端市場的影響，因為它過去對您造成了破壞性影響？

And then, Lance, any update on the negotiation process considering one of the unions rejected the contract, and I believe National Rail Conference also rejected their counteroffer last night? An update on thoughts ahead and timing would be appreciated there.

然後，蘭斯，考慮到其中一個工會拒絕了合同，我相信全國鐵路會議昨晚也拒絕了他們的還價，所以有關談判過程的任何更新？那裡將不勝感激有關未來想法和時間安排的更新。

Thanks, Brian. I'll start with a look at the labor negotiation, and then we'll turn it over to Kenny for talking about 2023 growth potential. So when we look at the overall negotiation, we've got on UP Property 5 unions; on the Industry, 6 unions that have ratified. That's about half the unions. We've got 4 that are out for ratification votes still, and then we've got the BMWED that's rejected their ratification early and are back into negotiation.

謝謝，布賴恩。我將從勞資談判開始，然後我們將把它交給肯尼談論 2023 年的增長潛力。因此，當我們查看整體談判時，我們有 UP Property 5 工會；就行業而言，已有6個工會批准。這大約是工會的一半。我們還有 4 個需要批准投票，然後我們的 BMWED 提前拒絕了他們的批准並重新開始談判。

A couple of things to note. We've got an agreed-upon status quo or maintained of status quo with BMWED while we're negotiating out what they take back to their membership, and one of the reasons, maybe we think the predominant reason for that original vote not to be ratified is that the PEB recommended both wages. And they also, for the BMWE, recommended a change in their compensation for travel to the work site because about 40%, sometimes more of that work team goes to away-from-home work sites, works for 7 days and then comes back.

有幾點需要注意。我們已經與 BMWED 達成一致同意的現狀或維持現狀，同時我們正在談判他們收回其會員資格的內容，其中一個原因，也許我們認為最初投票的主要原因不是批准的是 PEB 建議這兩種工資。他們還為 BMWE 建議改變前往工作地點的差旅補償，因為大約 40%，有時甚至更多的工作團隊去外地工作地點，工作 7 天然後回來。

So a change in that travel allowance and a change in the per diem while they're away from home. That negotiation on UP property just finished up last week. And so as the members were ratifying the vote, there was a section of it that they really didn't have clarity to. We think that clarity makes that vote more straightforward. And so that's part of the negotiation that's happening. It is exactly what's going to be embedded in the agreement when it goes back out for ratification. Ultimately, I remain confident that we're going to get our temporary agreements ratified and be able to avoid a strike. That's still a possibility, but I don't think it's a probability.

所以旅行津貼的變化和他們離家時的每日津貼的變化。上週關於 UP 物業的談判剛剛結束。因此，當成員們批准投票時，他們確實不清楚其中的一部分。我們認為明確性使投票更加直接。這就是正在進行的談判的一部分。這正是協議返回批准時將嵌入的內容。最終，我仍然相信我們將獲得批准我們的臨時協議並能夠避免罷工。這仍然是一種可能性，但我不認為這是一種可能性。

So I'll start off a little backwards here and take the currency question first. Lance and I just came back from Asia here recently, and we saw the evidence of what you're talking about. We're really looking at how the consumer is going to spend their money. We're seeing some evidence that they're spending more on the services right now than the goods. We're seeing that show up in the parcel shipment, and so we're going to just watch that pretty closely week to week.

因此，我將在這裡稍微倒退一點，首先討論貨幣問題。蘭斯和我最近剛從亞洲回來，我們看到了你所說的證據。我們真的在關註消費者將如何花錢。我們看到一些證據表明他們現在在服務上的花費比在商品上的花費更多。我們在包裹運輸中看到了這一點，因此我們將每周密切關注這一點。

So I talked a little bit about some of the markets that we feel very bullish on. Obviously, coal is one of them. Eric and his team and our commercial leaders have done a really good job of being agile and put resources, incremental resources up to capture that business. On our biofuel market, it's an emerging market for us. We feel good about the order book of customers that are coming on. We're going to bring on 2 new plants here in the next, call it, 3 to 6 months, which is very encouraging for us.

所以我談到了一些我們非常看好的市場。顯然，煤炭就是其中之一。 Eric 和他的團隊以及我們的商業領袖在敏捷和投入資源、增量資源方面做得非常好，以抓住該業務。在我們的生物燃料市場上，這對我們來說是一個新興市場。我們對即將到來的客戶訂單感到滿意。我們將在接下來的 3 到 6 個月內引進 2 座新工廠，這對我們來說非常鼓舞人心。

Grain is going to be a tough comp, but we'll see how that plays out. On the Industrial side, housing markets, we're seeing our lumber shipments taper off a little bit. One of the things that I'd tell you about Industrial is, on the construction product side, our rock shipments are still relatively strong and so that's a positive for us. Our metals business has been strong. A lot of the rebar goes into construction materials for highways and roads, so that's encouraging for us. A lot of the other sheet and coil is helping out.

穀物將是一個艱難的組合，但我們會看到它是如何發揮作用的。在工業方面，房地產市場，我們看到我們的木材出貨量略有減少。關於工業，我要告訴你的一件事是，在建築產品方面，我們的岩石出貨量仍然相對強勁，這對我們來說是積極的。我們的金屬業務一直很強勁。許多螺紋鋼用於高速公路和公路的建築材料，這對我們來說是令人鼓舞的。許多其他的板材和線圈都在幫忙。

The automotive business, which is also -- I talked about that being up. Automotive is up. Dealer supply at their facilities are low. They're about 30 today. Some of the OEMs that we talk to, their dealer supply for inventory at their dealership is in the single digits, some in the teens. That's going to be a positive for us. The rest of the quarter, I mentioned this a little bit early on the international intermodal side, it will be a positive for us. We've got an easier comp. And then we're going to keep an eye on, again, domestic as we're moving through.

汽車業務，這也是 - 我談到它正在上升。汽車起來了。他們工廠的經銷商供應量很低。他們今天大約 30 歲。我們與之交談的一些原始設備製造商，他們的經銷商在他們的經銷商處供應的庫存是個位數，有些是十幾歲。這對我們來說是積極的。本季度剩下的時間，我在國際多式聯運方面提早提到了這一點，這對我們來說是積極的。我們有一個更簡單的組合。然後我們將再次關注我們正在經歷的國內問題。

Our next question is from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Chris Wetherbee。

I guess maybe I wanted to clarify a point on the full year operating ratio. So I just wanted to make sure, I think you said reported 60% for the full year. So does that include the $114 million that's sort of excluded from the adjusted third quarter? I guess that's my first question. Just sort of piggybacking on that, as you think about the sequential progression, it sounds like yields probably decelerate, just given what's going on with fuel.

我想也許我想澄清一下全年營業比率。所以我只是想確定一下，我想你說全年報告了 60%。那麼這是否包括從調整後的第三季度排除在外的 1.14 億美元？我想這是我的第一個問題。只是有點捎帶，當你考慮連續進展時，聽起來產量可能會減速，只是考慮到燃料的情況。

But can you talk a little bit about sort of the cost dynamic? Maybe moving forward, it seems like, maybe a bit bigger than normal seasonal step-up in the operating ratio in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter. Can you just sort of elaborate a little bit on that, that would be helpful.

但是你能談談成本動態嗎？也許向前發展，看起來，第四季度與第三季度相比，運營比率的季節性增長可能比正常的季節性增長要大一些。你能稍微詳細說明一下嗎，那會很有幫助。

Sure, Christian, thanks for that question. You did hear right. So the 60% is the reported operating ratio. So that does include the impact of the PEB, the $114 million that we took the charge for relative to the change in estimates as well as the ongoing impact, which, as I mentioned in my remarks, was $19 million in the third quarter and will be likely a similar amount in the fourth quarter. So we absolutely do have that cost inflation.

當然，克里斯蒂安，謝謝你的問題。你沒聽錯。所以 60% 是報告的營業比率。因此，這確實包括了 PEB 的影響，我們收取的相對於估計變化的 1.14 億美元以及持續影響，正如我在講話中提到的，第三季度為 1900 萬美元，並將第四季度可能會有類似的數額。所以我們絕對有成本膨脹。

You also, I think, referenced fuel. That is going to flip on us, we believe, from third quarter to fourth quarter where it was a tailwind for us in the third quarter. That flips back to a headwind of a decent amount, we think, now in the fourth quarter. So that's going to be an impact.

我認為，您還提到了燃料。我們相信，從第三季度到第四季度，這將對我們不利，這對我們來說是第三季度的順風。我們認為，現在在第四季度，這又回到了相當大的逆風。所以這將是一個影響。

And of course, mix was a little bit negative for us here in the third quarter. That's probably going to look a little bit worse as we move into the fourth quarter. So kind of putting all those things together cumulatively on a sequential basis, we are expecting the operating ratio to deteriorate some, even as we're bringing more volume on and still working to take costs out of the network. But we have those headwinds. And as you know, with those inflationary things, in particular, while we're very confident we're going to offset that with price, there is some timing there.

當然，第三季度的混合對我們來說有點負面。隨著我們進入第四季度，情況可能會變得更糟。因此，將所有這些事情按順序累積在一起，我們預計運營比率會有所下降，即使我們正在增加產量並仍在努力從網絡中降低成本。但我們有這些不利因素。正如你所知，特別是那些通貨膨脹的事情，雖然我們非常有信心我們會用價格來抵消它，但那裡有一些時機。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Jason Seidl。

Wanted to focus a little bit on the intermodal side and break it up between both domestic and international. On the domestic side, you obviously called out sort of a weakening truck market going to be a little bit of a challenge. How should we think about that going forward in terms of the yields?

想把重點放在多式聯運方面，並在國內和國際之間進行拆分。在國內方面，您顯然表示卡車市場疲軟將是一個挑戰。我們應該如何看待未來的收益率？

And on the international side, how should we think about what we've seen as a big shift from the West Coast to the East Coast? How much of that traffic shift do you think will be permanent in the long term?

在國際方面，我們應該如何看待我們所看到的從西海岸到東海岸的重大轉變？您認為從長遠來看，這種交通變化有多少是永久性的？

Kenny?

肯尼？

Yes, I'll start off with the international intermodal and just kind of walk you through it. First of all, one of the things that is encouraging to us is that we're seeing the percentage of traffic that goes on to the West Coast and move to our inland facilities increase. And so again, that means that less of that product is being transloaded on the West Coast. So that is a positive to us. That's encouraging to us. We're pushing up, I'll call it, product and solutions up against our customers in that light. For example, our KTN Dallas to Dock facility last quarter had its highest volume of westbound traffic there. Also, we opened up our Global 4 ag reload facility in August. So those are things that we're doing to make the product a lot more encouraging. So keep that in mind as you're thinking about the West Coast versus the East Coast.

是的，我將從國際多式聯運開始，然後引導您完成它。首先，讓我們感到鼓舞的一件事是，我們看到前往西海岸並轉移到我們內陸設施的交通比例有所增加。同樣，這意味著在西海岸轉運的產品減少了。所以這對我們來說是積極的。這對我們很鼓舞。我們正在推動，我稱之為產品和解決方案，以此來對抗我們的客戶。例如，上個季度我們的 KTN 達拉斯到碼頭設施在那裡的西行交通量最高。此外，我們在 8 月開放了 Global 4 ag 重新加載設施。所以這些都是我們正在做的事情，以使產品更令人鼓舞。因此，當您考慮西海岸與東海岸時，請記住這一點。

Then on the domestic side, again, I mentioned and called out the fact that in our parcel business, we're looking at that fairly closely as we're kind of heading into the last part of the year. We have seen the inventory rise a little bit, that is reflected in some of our inland terminals to a very small degree. We've seen the spot rates lower, but we haven't seen that in the contract rates. We'll know more about that as we head into a bid season, which is in, call it, December 4.

然後在國內方面，我再次提到並指出，在我們的包裹業務中，我們正在密切關注這一事實，因為我們即將進入今年的最後一部分。我們看到庫存略有上升，這反映在我們的一些內陸碼頭的程度非常小。我們已經看到即期匯率較低，但我們還沒有在合同匯率中看到這一點。當我們進入投標季節時，我們會對此有更多了解，也就是 12 月 4 日。

Yes. And Jason, I'd just add one thing and that is, we're encouraged by the movement of the international boxes between ports and inland, right? That fluid looks pretty good. We've taken some of the box count down off of the ports. That's approaching back to normal. We still have an issue with trying to get boxes off the inland ramps and process through warehouses. There's a lot of inventory sitting in warehouses right now. And the U.S. consumer is going to have to chew through that for us to be able to get street times and boxed well on the destination side back to normal.

是的。 Jason，我只想補充一件事，那就是，國際集裝箱在港口和內陸之間的移動讓我們感到鼓舞，對吧？那個液體看起來很不錯。我們已經從端口中減少了一些盒子計數。這正在接近恢復正常。試圖從內陸坡道取出箱子並通過倉庫處理仍然存在問題。現在倉庫裡有很多庫存。美國消費者將不得不仔細研究這一點，我們才能讓街道時間和目的地方面的包裝恢復正常。

Okay. And any in the comments that I made about yields, if we do see a bleed in the contract rates on the truckload side, Kenny, how should we think about pressure on intermodal yields as we look to '23?

好的。在我對收益率所做的任何評論中，如果我們確實看到卡車裝載方面的合同費率出現下降，肯尼，當我們展望 23 年時，我們應該如何考慮多式聯運收益率的壓力？

So first of all, I think, again, it's just a little too soon to tell. Hey, I'm not ready to concede to all the tightness that Lance just talked about. It might not show up in firming prices on the contract side. So it's just a little too soon to call that out.

所以首先，我想，再說一遍，現在說還為時過早。嘿，我還沒準備好承認蘭斯剛才談到的所有緊張。它可能不會出現在合約方面的堅挺價格中。所以現在說出來還為時過早。

Doubtless, there's a headwind there through the bid season, and we'll have to just see how it plays out.

毫無疑問，整個競標季都會遇到逆風，我們必須看看它會如何發揮作用。

Our next question is coming from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Eric, you spent most of this year, probably even much of last year trying to bring on resources, mostly labor, but all these resources that you needed for fluidity and productivity, et cetera. And now you feel like you're getting close, if not there, into a slowing demand backdrop.

Eric，你今年的大部分時間，甚至可能是去年的大部分時間都在試圖引入資源，主要是勞動力，但所有這些資源都是你需要的流動性和生產力等等。現在你覺得你正在接近，如果不是那裡，需求放緩的背景。

So as you look about going forward, do you have the flexibility and the nimbleness that you've had in prior cycles to maybe manage some of those resources down if demand is weaker than you expect? Or do you need to keep the network a bit more overresourced in the short term, given these challenges that you've had and maybe even more intense scrutiny from the regulator?

因此，當您展望未來時，您是否具有在之前的周期中所擁有的靈活性和敏捷性，可以在需求弱於您預期的情況下管理其中一些資源？或者，考慮到您面臨的這些挑戰以及監管機構的更嚴格審查，您是否需要在短期內讓網絡資源過剩？

Yes. I appreciate that question, Jon. Without a doubt, as we've demonstrated in multiple times, unfortunately, we have the ability to bring down our resources in line with volume. In my prepared comments, I made a point to point out that we want to be more than volume variable. So that playbook is known, and we've demonstrated an efficiency in being able to do that.

是的。我很欣賞這個問題，喬恩。毫無疑問，正如我們多次證明的那樣，不幸的是，我們有能力根據數量減少我們的資源。在我準備好的評論中，我指出我們想要的不僅僅是體積變量。所以這個劇本是眾所周知的，我們已經證明了能夠做到這一點的效率。

Now as we think about that and we think about the last 1.5 years to your point, there are 3 things that we continue to be focused on. Our ability to hire, no matter what the market is, remains critical. As part of that, we continue to work on how we think about making our jobs even more attractive to the population. So no matter what the market is, we can attract the talent that we need.

現在，當我們考慮這一點並考慮到您的觀點的過去 1.5 年時，我們將繼續關注 3 件事。無論市場如何，我們的招聘能力仍然至關重要。作為其中的一部分，我們將繼續研究如何讓我們的工作對人們更具吸引力。所以無論市場如何，我們都能吸引到我們需要的人才。

At the same time, as we look at resources and continue to be able to balance them, to your point, you will see us, as we've had in the past, reestablish AWTS, which is a way for us to have a little bit of a buffer. It's not thousands of people, it's a couple of hundred people to be able to react both on the upside and the downside. So we have that playbook. We clearly have demonstrated our ability to execute it, yet we continue to take lessons we're learning to make that playbook even stronger.

同時，當我們查看資源並繼續能夠平衡它們時，就您而言，您會看到我們像過去一樣重新建立 AWTS，這是我們擁有一點點的一種方式一點緩衝。這不是成千上萬的人，而是幾百人能夠同時對上行和下行做出反應。所以我們有那個劇本。我們清楚地展示了我們執行它的能力，但我們繼續吸取我們正在學習的課程，以使該劇本更加強大。

Next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 的觀點。

Eric, you mentioned in the slides that you're getting ahead of your 1,400 hiring goals for T&E this year. Can you think -- can you help us think about how much more hiring we need to do to kind of maintain the service levels that you need to be? Like what are you thinking about in terms of headcount for next year? Obviously, you don't have the volume plans and everything else, but are we still in the process of catching up from a headcount perspective for where you need to resource the network or are you -- if we get to 1,400, are we there?

埃里克，你在幻燈片中提到，你在今年 T&E 的 1,400 個招聘目標中取得了進展。你能想一想——你能幫助我們想想我們需要做多少招聘才能維持你需要的服務水平？比如你對明年的員工人數有什麼看法？顯然，您沒有數量計劃和其他一切，但我們是否仍在從員工人數的角度趕上您需要資源網絡的地方，或者您是否 - 如果我們達到 1,400，我們在那裡?

Yes, David, great question. So to reiterate, we set out the year to start hiring 1,400 people. You heard in my prepared comments that we've done that. Now admittedly, 1/3 of that 1,400 have been hired and they are in the training pipeline. So we won't see the benefit of having them towards -- until the end of the year, between now and the end of the year, really. As we think about looking out at our hiring demands, as you pointed out and as Kenny highlighted, there are obviously questions about the markets. We'll stay close to those. We'll use the same process that we've employed in the past to ensure that we don't fall short of hiring.

是的，大衛，很好的問題。因此，重申一下，我們在今年開始招聘 1,400 人。你在我準備好的評論中聽說我們已經做到了。現在誠然，這 1,400 人中有 1/3 已被聘用，他們正在接受培訓。所以我們不會看到讓他們受益 - 直到今年年底，從現在到年底，真的。正如您所指出的和肯尼強調的那樣，當我們考慮關注我們的招聘需求時，市場顯然存在問題。我們會靠近那些。我們將使用我們過去採用的相同流程來確保我們不會缺少招聘。

And at the same time, as we look, we're really focused on attrition. You have a couple of questions that are outstanding with regards to the implications of the ratification with some population of our employees, and we're going to react to that accordingly. So it's really about the markets, what do we need to be staffed to for that and contending with attrition.

同時，正如我們所看到的，我們真正關注的是減員。關於批准對我們部分員工的影響，您有幾個未解決的問題，我們將做出相應的反應。因此，這實際上與市場有關，我們需要為此配備什麼人員並應對人員流失。

And is it right to think that there's a little bit of buffer you need to add in there for some of those agreements around extra pay, paid time off just having some people -- more people on staff? Is that something that's also sort of contemplated in your hiring outlook? Or is that -- how do we think about that from a productivity standpoint?

認為你需要為一些關於額外工資的協議添加一點緩衝是正確的，帶薪休假只是讓一些人 - 更多的員工在職嗎？您的招聘前景是否也考慮過這一點？或者是——從生產力的角度來看，我們如何看待這一點？

It's contemplated and always has been contemplated. Certainly, inside the agreements that are still out for ratification, there are questions around additional time off and we'll adjust accordingly for that. I think the more important part of that is how do we think about that AWTS program and making sure -- but again, it's a couple of hundred people, and it's viable, and it's something that we can rely on.

它被考慮並且一直被考慮。當然，在仍有待批准的協議中，存在關於額外休假的問題，我們將對此進行相應調整。我認為其中更重要的部分是我們如何考慮 AWTS 計劃並確保 - 但同樣，它有幾百人，它是可行的，它是我們可以依賴的東西。

But David, I think it's important to remember and Eric said this, we still expect that we can be volume variable even with those agreements. So we're going to see volumes exceed whichever -- what happens in the economy, you won't see headcount grow to the same extent.

但是大衛，我認為記住這一點很重要，埃里克說過，即使有這些協議，我們仍然希望我們可以在數量上有所變化。因此，我們將看到數量超過任何一個——經濟中發生的情況，你不會看到員工人數增長到同樣的程度。

100%. One last thing to note, David, we got to step a little carefully here. We've committed and we've started and been in negotiation with some of our crafts, the unscheduled jobs specifically, to try to find ways to get scheduled time off. Part of the PEB and this negotiation addresses that, but it's a far bigger issue that needs to be addressed on property in job design. That's underway. We think there's a path to do that without a substantial or kind of meaningful impact on overall headcount requirement because what we're trying to do is we're trying to make availability of employees flat across the week, right? So you don't get spikes in crew availability and layoffs. And the way you do that is you make time off predictable, and we think that trade-off is feasible. We think it's absolutely going to be happening. We don't think there's a large impact on employment through that.

100%。最後要注意的一件事，大衛，我們在這裡要小心一點。我們已經承諾並且我們已經開始並一直在與我們的一些工藝進行談判，特別是計劃外的工作，以試圖找到安排時間休假的方法。 PEB 的一部分和這次談判解決了這個問題，但這是一個更大的問題，需要在工作設計中解決財產問題。這正在進行中。我們認為有一種方法可以做到這一點，而不會對整體員工人數要求產生實質性或有意義的影響，因為我們正在努力做的是我們試圖讓員工在一周內的可用性持平，對嗎？因此，您不會在船員可用性和裁員方面出現高峰。你這樣做的方式是讓休假時間變得可預測，我們認為這種權衡是可行的。我們認為這絕對會發生。我們認為這不會對就業產生很大影響。

And it could actually give us better crew availability that gives us opportunities.

它實際上可以為我們提供更好的船員可用性，從而為我們提供機會。

100%.

100%。

Our next question is from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Ravi Shanker。

So I get that you're -- obviously, it's too early to give us 2023 guidance or anything, and then you did reiterate your commitment to the long-term targets. But Lance, I just wanted to get a sense with all of the moving parts you see right now, are you confident that you guys can get pricing over inflation next year with kind of higher inflation inputs and pressure on the top line from what's going on in the macro?

所以我知道你 - 顯然，現在給我們 2023 年的指導或任何東西還為時過早，然後你確實重申了你對長期目標的承諾。但是蘭斯，我只是想了解一下你現在看到的所有活動部件，你是否相信你們明年可以通過更高的通脹投入和來自正在發生的事情的頂線壓力來獲得通脹定價在宏中？

Yes, Ravi. Short answer, yes. Longer answer, there are a lot of moving parts. There are going to be some headwinds into next year. Inflation is quite real. But as we look at rolling up a budget and starting -- or really at the tail end of putting our plan together, for sure, we are confident we can get pricing above inflation.

是的，拉維。簡短的回答，是的。更長的答案，有很多活動部件。明年會有一些阻力。通貨膨脹是相當真實的。但是，當我們考慮匯總預算並開始 - 或者實際上是在製定計劃的最後階段時，可以肯定的是，我們相信我們可以使定價高於通脹。

Our next question comes from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

Kenny, I want to go back to your comment that you put out there about leaving demand on the table. Can you maybe help us understand or quantify what you think that headwind was? And then as you're talking to potential new customers, has the service challenges that you guys faced this year impacted some of that conversion to new accounts? Just any thoughts there.

肯尼，我想回到你發表的關於將需求留在桌面上的評論。你能不能幫助我們理解或量化你認為逆風是什麼？然後當您與潛在的新客戶交談時，你們今年面臨的服務挑戰是否影響了向新客戶的轉換？只是那裡的任何想法。

Yes, a couple of things. One is -- I'll tell you, Allison, that's hard to quantify. Clearly, we saw second week of September, mid-September, and it probably lasted for a couple of weeks, a dip in our carloads, probably more noticeable in our Premium network than it was in our carload network. So Allison, I can't give you a number.

是的，有幾件事。一個是 - 我會告訴你，艾莉森，這很難量化。顯然，我們看到了 9 月的第二週，也就是 9 月中旬，它可能持續了幾週，我們的載貨量下降，在我們的高級網絡中可能比在我們的載貨網絡中更明顯。所以艾莉森，我不能給你一個號碼。

Yes, but we can tell her where it's at, right? Most likely, we left stuff on the table in coal, probably some left on the table in grain. I think that's where Allison is looking for.

是的，但我們可以告訴她它在哪裡，對吧？最有可能的是，我們在桌子上留下了煤，可能還有一些留在桌子上的穀物。我認為這就是艾莉森正在尋找的地方。

Yes. On our -- I'd say, mostly in our bulk market, I mean -- or unit train market. So if you look at our coal business, a little bit in our grain business, probably some on our fertilizer business. And there was a little bit more demand in our rock network, so primarily associated with our unit train business, which consumes quite a bit of crews and resources.

是的。在我們的 - 我想說，主要是在我們的大宗市場，我的意思是 - 或單元火車市場。所以如果你看看我們的煤炭業務，我們的穀物業務，可能還有我們的化肥業務。我們的搖滾網絡有更多的需求，因此主要與我們的單元列車業務相關，這消耗了相當多的工作人員和資源。

And Allison, I think it's safe to say that there was less in the third quarter than the second quarter, and as we're entering in the fourth quarter, there's less again. So the whole idea isn't for all unmet demand to go away, right? There's -- at some point, when you're running the business, it's good to have people want you that you don't have resources for. The issue is making sure that's not performance-based, that we're not leaving demand on the table because we weren't performing.

艾莉森，我認為可以肯定地說第三季度的數量少於第二季度，而當我們進入第四季度時，再次減少。所以整個想法並不是讓所有未滿足的需求都消失，對吧？有 - 在某些時候，當你經營業務時，讓人們想要你而你沒有資源是件好事。問題是確保這不是基於性能的，我們不會因為我們沒有表現而將需求留在桌面上。

So the thing I'm encouraged by, and Eric talked about this is that we did have more resources, and we have added more sets in. We are putting more resources up against if we do have more crews coming on. So I'm more encouraged. Now we're in a better place. Lance, you talked about it, second to third, but we're in a better place today and we're working closely together. That's on the unit train network. What you don't see is that our commercial team is working closely with operating on the carload side. So if we are seeing a little bit of softening on the lumber side, we're supplementing a little bit of boxcar and covered hopper to capture areas where we do see the demand.

所以讓我感到鼓舞的事情是，Eric 談到這一點是我們確實有更多的資源，並且我們添加了更多的系列。如果我們確實有更多的工作人員加入，我們會投入更多的資源。所以我更受鼓舞。現在我們在一個更好的地方。蘭斯，你談到了它，從第二到第三，但我們今天處於一個更好的位置，我們正在密切合作。那是在單位列車網絡上。您看不到的是，我們的商業團隊正在與貨運方面的運營密切合作。因此，如果我們看到木材方面有一點軟化，我們會補充一點棚車和有蓋料斗，以捕捉我們確實看到需求的區域。

The other part of that, I think you talked about just overall new customers coming into the network. Our customers face some of the same challenges that we did in terms of hiring and getting some of the resources. So they understand that. They realize that, that was a, I'll call it, a short-term challenge for us. We're bringing on more resources to give them confidence. We're putting more capital for the growth. And so that gives us a lot of good things to articulate to our customers as we're talking about our preparedness in the future.

另一部分，我認為你談到了進入網絡的整體新客戶。我們的客戶在招聘和獲取一些資源方面面臨著一些與我們相同的挑戰。所以他們明白這一點。他們意識到，這對我們來說是一個，我稱之為短期挑戰。我們正在引入更多資源來給他們信心。我們正在為增長投入更多資金。因此，當我們談論我們未來的準備時，這給了我們很多好東西來向我們的客戶表達。

Our next question is coming from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

It looks like we're opening up a little rough morning here. But thinking about your volume outlook with falling demand but improving fluidity, how do you win share in that environment, particularly given the rapidly loosening trucking environment? I guess I'm more speaking on intermodal, Kenny. It looks like your volume target for the fourth quarter is down to maybe 7%, given that full year 3% target.

看起來我們在這裡打開了一個有點粗糙的早晨。但是考慮到需求下降但流動性提高的銷量前景，您如何在這種環境中贏得份額，特別是考慮到快速寬鬆的貨運環境？我想我更多地談論多式聯運，肯尼。鑑於全年 3% 的目標，您第四季度的銷量目標似乎已降至 7% 左右。

And then how do you win share if your trip plan compliance is still 58% to 62%? I mean, it just seems like after PSR, we should have been able to bounce back. I get the employees are still coming on, but just given that differential. And then, Jen, can you just clarify some comments you made on the real estate gain and pension? Just to clarify what was maybe onetime versus ongoing?

如果你的旅行計劃合規率仍然是 58% 到 62%，你如何贏得份額？我的意思是，似乎在 PSR 之後，我們應該能夠反彈。我知道員工仍在繼續工作，但只是考慮到了這種差異。然後，Jen，你能澄清一下你對房地產收益和養老金的一些評論嗎？只是為了澄清可能是一次性的還是正在進行的？

Yes, Ken, let me start with that, and then, we'll give it to Kenny. So on the real estate side, we called out that we had a sale with -- I don't think I said this in my remarks, but that we had a real estate sale that impacted other income. We said that real estate income was $35 million.

是的，肯，讓我從這個開始，然後，我們會把它交給肯尼。所以在房地產方面，我們呼籲我們進行了一次銷售 - 我認為我在我的講話中沒有說過這一點，但我們的房地產銷售會影響其他收入。我們說房地產收入是 3500 萬美元。

The pension benefit, that was actually probably about, call it, $14 million, $15 million higher year-over-year. That's something that we have seen through most of the year and maybe not quite to that magnitude but should continue into the fourth quarter to a degree. But the real estate piece is the one that I would consider more onetime-ish.

養老金福利，實際上可能是 1400 萬美元，同比增長 1500 萬美元。這是我們在今年大部分時間裡看到的情況，可能還沒有達到那麼大，但應該會在一定程度上持續到第四季度。但房地產部分是我認為更一次性的部分。

Yes. So I've mentioned this a little bit earlier on our premium side. It really is a mixed bag as we look at it. We expect our international intermodal business to be up in the fourth quarter. Domestic intermodal, we're going to be looking at that closely. I talked about the shift in preferences. Now I want to mix up fourth quarter and 2023. Looking into 2023, we've made it clear we've got another large private asset customer coming on base, which is a positive for us. How do you win in this type of market, it's all the investments that we're making. We feel good about the increased ramp capacity that we're putting on.

是的。所以我早些時候在我們的高級方面提到了這一點。當我們看到它時，它確實是一個混合包。我們預計我們的國際多式聯運業務將在第四季度增長。國內多式聯運，我們將密切關注這一點。我談到了偏好的轉變。現在我想把第四季度和 2023 年混為一談。展望 2023 年，我們已經明確表示我們有另一個大型私人資產客戶正在基礎上，這對我們來說是積極的。您如何在這種類型的市場中獲勝，這是我們正在進行的所有投資。我們對我們正在增加的坡道容量感到滿意。

We feel great about the tech that we're pushing up against the intermodal network in terms of precision gate technology, which will be great for our -- the driver experiences there, quite a bit of investment, both line of road that's over there in terms of sidings that will be lengthened. We are putting quite a bit of investment up against that intermodal network to be prepared to compete and grow with it as we look into the future.

我們對我們在精密門技術方面推動的多式聯運網絡技術感到非常滿意，這對我們來說非常棒 - 那裡的駕駛員體驗，相當多的投資，兩條道路都在那裡將延長的側線條款。我們正在對該多式聯運網絡進行大量投資，以便在我們展望未來時準備好與之競爭和發展。

And part of, Ken, your question is predicated, I expect you to snap back quicker given PSR, why isn't your trip plan compliance better on premium and on your manifest side? And the short answer is they continue to improve. As we see car velocity, which is now approaching the 200 number last couple of days, that continues to improve. And what you saw posted for second Q and 3Q is much better now in print as we're entering 4Q.

部分，Ken，你的問題是基於 PSR 的，我希望你能更快地恢復，為什麼你的旅行計劃在溢價和清單方面沒有更好的合規性？簡短的回答是他們繼續改進。正如我們看到的汽車速度（最近幾天現在接近 200 輛），繼續提高。當我們進入第四季度時，您看到的第二季度和第三季度發布的內容現在要好得多。

But is that what gets you to the 80s from the 50s, 60s? Is it the employees? Is it the speed? What gets you back to where you were running?

但這就是讓你從 50 年代、60 年代到 80 年代的原因嗎？是員工嗎？是速度嗎？是什麼讓你回到你跑步的地方？

Yes. So the biggest opportunity we have is really the congestion that we saw and have been working through. And Lance pointed out earlier in the conversation regarding the west ports and the fluidity there, that translates. If you look into our velocity gains throughout this quarter, a big portion of that has been on the intermodal side.

是的。因此，我們擁有的最大機會實際上是我們看到並一直在努力解決的擁堵問題。蘭斯在前面的談話中指出了關於西部港口和那裡的流動性，這就是翻譯。如果您查看我們整個季度的速度增長，其中很大一部分是在多式聯運方面。

When I look on a daily basis at our arrival performance at terminals as well as our departure, those are both improving. Those are contributors to increased TPC. Yes, additional people are helping in certain particular markets, but it really is about the fundamentals, and I see them improving week over week.

當我每天查看我們在航站樓的到達和離開時的表現時，它們都在改善。這些都是 TPC 增加的因素。是的，更多人在某些特定市場提供幫助，但這確實與基本面有關，我看到他們每週都在改善。

Our next question is coming from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Scott Group 的 Wolfe Research。

Jennifer, the 3Q to 4Q OR deterioration, is that relative to the reported or the adjusted? And then just bigger picture, you reiterated this year pricing in excess of inflation. But with that positive price and positive volume, margins are going to be down about 300 basis points this year. So maybe just sort of help connect those 2 comments. And then maybe more importantly, just what's your confidence of improving the OR next year relative to this 60% OR we're seeing in 2022?

Jennifer，3Q 到 4Q OR 惡化，是相對於報告的還是調整後的？然後只是更大的圖景，你重申今年的定價超過了通貨膨脹。但由於價格和銷量都呈正值，今年的利潤率將下降約 300 個基點。所以也許只是幫助連接這兩條評論。然後也許更重要的是，相對於我們在 2022 年看到的 60% OR，您對明年提高 OR 的信心是多少？

Yes, Ken (sic) [Scott]. So the comments about fourth quarter is really talking about the adjusted, so adjusted here are the 58.2%. We see some sequential deterioration on that adjusted basis, not on the reported basis. So that's a good clarification. Thanks for that.

是的，肯（原文如此）[斯科特]。所以關於第四季度的評論真的是在談論調整後，所以這裡調整的是 58.2%。我們看到在調整後的基礎上出現了一些連續惡化，而不是在報告的基礎上。所以這是一個很好的澄清。感謝那。

In terms of 2023, again, still putting the plan together and a lot of moving pieces and parts. Probably the biggest part of that is really what's the economy going to be doing, but we know that we have opportunities to grow. You've heard Kenny talk about that. You've heard Lance mention that. We also know that we have continued price opportunities, and we feel very confident in our ability to price above the inflation dollars.

再說一次，就 2023 年而言，仍然把計劃放在一起，還有很多活動的部分。可能其中最大的部分是經濟將要做什麼，但我們知道我們有增長的機會。你聽肯尼談過這個。你聽說蘭斯提到過。我們也知道我們有持續的價格機會，我們對我們將價格高於通脹美元的能力充滿信心。

And you heard Eric talk about the fact that we have certainly the opportunities to improve our overall efficiency. So putting all those things together, as we sit here today, I'm not going to give you, obviously, any numbers, but we are confident that we will be able to achieve margin improvement going from 2022 to 2023.

你聽到 Eric 談到我們當然有機會提高我們的整體效率。因此，當我們今天坐在這裡時，將所有這些事情放在一起，顯然我不會給你任何數字，但我們有信心從 2022 年到 2023 年，我們將能夠實現利潤率的提高。

And maybe just to ask it differently, like if we got positive price and positive volume, and we're giving up 3 points of margin, what were the causes of that 3 points that maybe could go away next year, well, maybe not, I don't know?

也許只是換個方式問，比如如果我們得到正的價格和正的數量，而我們放棄了 3 個點的利潤，那 3 個點的原因是什麼，明年可能會消失，嗯，也許不會，我不知道？

Well, I mean, just in this quarter -- we'll just talk about this quarter, we had 310 basis points of margin deterioration in terms of the service inefficiencies and the inflation. So that right there is your 300 points. And so to the extent that we can do better offsetting that, don't have an inflation number for next year yet, certainly going to be impacted by the higher wages. This year's inflation, while we came into the year thinking inflation was probably going to be around 3% and that would be higher than what we've seen historically, it's probably going to be closer to 5% and it's accelerated, obviously, as we've gotten here in the back half of the year and had some of these wage settlements. So it takes a bit to catch up to that with some of our pricing and as we're approaching the market, but we are confident in our ability to do that.

好吧，我的意思是，就在本季度——我們將只討論本季度，就服務效率低下和通貨膨脹而言，我們的利潤率惡化了 310 個基點。所以這就是你的300分。因此，如果我們可以更好地抵消這一點，明年還沒有通脹數據，肯定會受到更高工資的影響。今年的通貨膨脹，雖然我們在進入這一年時認為通貨膨脹可能會在 3% 左右，這將高於我們歷史上看到的水平，但它可能會接近 5%，而且顯然會加速，因為我們'已經在今年下半年來到這裡並獲得了一些工資結算。因此，隨著我們的一些定價以及我們正在接近市場，我們需要一些時間才能趕上這一點，但我們對我們做到這一點的能力充滿信心。

The next question is from the line of Cherilyn Radbourne with TD Securities.

下一個問題來自道明證券的 Cherilyn Radbourne。

In terms of the intermodal business, I was hoping you could give us some perspective on how the onboarding of Knight-Swift has progressed year-to-date, the extent to which both partners may have left opportunities on the table in the first year based on supply chain congestion and whether you think that represents a tailwind as you look ahead to 2023?

在多式聯運業務方面，我希望您能給我們一些看法，了解 Knight-Swift 的入職今年迄今為止的進展情況，以及雙方在第一年可能在多大程度上留下了機會。關於供應鏈擁堵，您認為這是否代表著您展望 2023 年的順風？

We have been very encouraged. I think Knight-Swift would also agree that the onboarding has gone very well. Both companies have stayed very close to each other. Sure, there have been some supply chain challenges, but (inaudible) is not where it should be. It actually stayed pretty elevated for some time now. So there could be some volume tailwind as that kind of loosens up as we move into the future. But I can tell you that onboarding them has gone very well, and I'd use the word seamless.

我們受到了很大的鼓舞。我認為 Knight-Swift 也會同意入職過程非常順利。兩家公司的關係都非常密切。當然，存在一些供應鏈挑戰，但（聽不清）不是應該的。它實際上已經保持了一段時間。因此，隨著我們走向未來，隨著這種情況的放鬆，可能會有一些成交量順風。但我可以告訴你，他們的入職過程非常順利，我會使用無縫這個詞。

Next question comes from the line of Ari Rosa with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ari Rosa。

Great. So Lance, you talked about the path to getting to a 55% OR. I was hoping you could just elaborate on that a little bit. And do you think that's primarily driven by price? Or are there further efficiency gains that you guys think you can realize to get there?

偉大的。所以蘭斯，你談到了達到 55% OR 的途徑。我希望你能詳細說明一下。你認為這主要是由價格驅動的嗎？還是你們認為可以實現進一步的效率提升？

And then on the pricing point, obviously, the labor negotiations have been very public. I wanted to know to what extent that's kind of influenced discussions with customers on how much yield you might be able to get as you think about 2023?

然後在定價點上，顯然，勞資談判非常公開。我想知道這在多大程度上影響了與客戶的討論，即您在考慮 2023 年時可能獲得多少收益？

Yes. Okay, Ari. So the path to 55% is really pretty plain. It hasn't changed. This year, we ran into a rough patch. We ran the network type. We got into trouble on our crew availability and we're digging out of that. We've made progress in the third quarter, and we'll make another strong step to normal in the fourth quarter. I anticipate we enter into the back half of 2022 in the 200-plus car velocity.

是的。好的，阿里。因此，通往 55% 的道路非常簡單。它沒有改變。今年，我們遇到了一個艱難的時期。我們運行了網絡類型。我們在船員可用性方面遇到了麻煩，我們正在解決這個問題。我們在第三季度取得了進展，我們將在第四季度向正常邁出又一大步。我預計我們會以 200 多輛汽車的速度進入 2022 年下半年。

We're essentially there at this point and need to grow from there and then be normal going into 2023, which I anticipate is going to be the case. As we do that, there is, for sure, an opportunity to take excess cost out of the network. Now having said that, we're fighting against pretty significant inflation. You see it in the PEB, but it's across the board on our services and our inputs. We're going to have to overcome that with price, and we anticipate we will. We're confident we will, but that's not helpful on the OR side, right? So you got to create margin somewhere. For us, that's got to be incremental volume.

我們基本上已經到了這一點，需要從那裡成長，然後正常進入 2023 年，我預計情況會如此。當我們這樣做時，肯定有機會從網絡中扣除多餘的成本。話雖如此，我們正在與相當嚴重的通貨膨脹作鬥爭。您可以在 PEB 中看到它，但它全面體現在我們的服務和我們的投入上。我們將不得不用價格來克服這一點，我們預計我們會的。我們有信心我們會，但這對手術室沒有幫助，對吧？所以你必須在某個地方創造利潤。對我們來說，這必須是增量。

At this point, incremental volume is going to be a more important part of the 3-legged stool into the future years. We're set up well to exceed what the industry is going to do. We're doing that this year. I think we're going to do that again next year, and we're going to have to make hay with it. And that's what gives us confidence that we're going to be able to improve margins going into next year. That's the clear path to a 55% operating ratio. And again, I don't think we said it yet today, but reiterating leading the industry in terms of our margins. So, Kenny?

在這一點上，增量體積將成為未來幾年三足凳更重要的部分。我們的設置很好，可以超越行業將要做的事情。今年我們正在這樣做。我認為明年我們會再次這樣做，我們將不得不用它來做事。這就是讓我們有信心在明年提高利潤率的原因。這是實現 55% 運營率的明確途徑。再說一次，我認為我們今天還沒有說過，但重申在我們的利潤率方面領先行業。那麼，肯尼？

Yes. I mean, we've said it, as a management team, we're going to cover inflation with price. But just to get a little granular here, our commercial leaders have done a really good job sitting now with customers, making adjustments to the rates real time, again, real-time discussions to reflect the inflationary environment that we're seeing to date. And so we're articulating the why behind the need for those adjustments with rates, especially in light of the capital that we're expending and then also the fact that sequentially our service is improving.

是的。我的意思是，我們已經說過，作為一個管理團隊，我們將用價格來彌補通貨膨脹。但在這裡稍微細化一下，我們的商業領導人現在與客戶坐在一起做得非常好，實時調整費率，再次實時討論，以反映我們迄今為止看到的通貨膨脹環境。因此，我們正在闡明為什麼需要通過費率進行這些調整，特別是考慮到我們正在花費的資金以及我們的服務正在逐步改善的事實。

Next question is coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Jennifer, I just wanted to understand with respect to the walk from '22 to '23, I understand there's a lot of macro and uncertainty, but you have the tentative agreements. So you should be able to obviously at least help us a little bit on what the incremental headwind is from the tentative agreement in 2023. It looks like -- I mean, the slide was very helpful in the back. It looks like it's like $44 million a year. Is that the right way to think about kind of on day 1, the incremental headwind in 2023?

詹妮弗，我只是想了解從 22 年到 23 年的步行，我知道有很多宏觀和不確定性，但你有初步協議。因此，您顯然至少應該能夠幫助我們了解 2023 年暫定協議帶來的增量逆風。看起來——我的意思是，幻燈片在後面非常有幫助。看起來每年大約有 4400 萬美元。這是在第 1 天思考 2023 年增量逆風的正確方式嗎？

And then, Kenny, I just want to understand, so Lance just talked about getting to 200 car miles per day. There's still a huge gap, given where fuel is obviously on the economics of moving something by rail. As we think about kind of the near-term volume, the weekly volume trends, it's kind of stuck in this low-to-mid 160,000. If the asset -- if the cycle times get better because you're able to get to 200 or gets to 200 plus, is there more volume for you to move in the near term? Like can we see a corresponding step-up immediately if we start getting to that 200-plus car miles per day because of where the economics of you are today?

然後，肯尼，我只是想了解一下，所以蘭斯剛剛談到每天行駛 200 英里。考慮到燃料顯然取決於鐵路運輸的經濟性，仍然存在巨大差距。當我們考慮近期的交易量，每週的交易量趨勢時，它有點卡在這個 160,000 的中低點。如果資產——如果週期時間變得更好，因為你能夠達到 200 或超過 200，那麼你在短期內是否有更多的交易量？如果我們開始達到每天 200 多英里的汽車里程，我們是否可以立即看到相應的提升，因為您今天的經濟狀況？

Okay, Amit. Thanks for that. Let me start, and then we'll turn it over. So the '22 you referenced is for the first quarter and second quarter, that was before the wage increase that became effective July 1. And so the thing you have to remember is, the way that the wage accruals or the wages work is it's a July 1 increase. So effective July 1, we went from, I think, it was 3.5% to a 7% increase. And so when I referenced in my comments, $19 million was the wage impact inflation, that's the third quarter impact, similar amount in the fourth quarter. Those 2 impacts will carry into first and second quarter of next year, and then July of 2023, it goes to a 4% increase. So that's how you need to think about that. So 7% increase first half, 4% increase in the second half in terms of just the wage inflation piece relative to that. Does that make sense?

好的，阿米特。感謝那。讓我開始吧，然後我們再把它翻過來。所以你提到的 '22 是第一季度和第二季度，那是在 7 月 1 日生效的工資增長之前。所以你必須記住的是，工資應計或工資的工作方式是7 月 1 日增加。因此，從 7 月 1 日起，我們從 3.5% 增長到 7%。因此，當我在評論中提到時，1900 萬美元是工資影響通脹，這是第三季度的影響，與第四季度類似。這兩種影響將持續到明年第一季度和第二季度，然後到 2023 年 7 月，將增長 4%。所以這就是你需要考慮的方式。因此，僅就工資通脹而言，上半年增長 7%，下半年增長 4%。那有意義嗎？

Yes, it makes sense, but I'm just trying to -- I'm just maybe I'm lazy. I just wanted to see if you can give us a number. I mean, it looks like if it's $20 million third quarter and fourth quarter and then another incremental -- I'm just -- it doesn't see -- it looks like it's kind of like $50 million to $60 million on a net incremental next year versus 2022.

是的，這是有道理的，但我只是想——我只是可能我很懶。我只是想看看你能不能給我們一個號碼。我的意思是，如果它是第三季度和第四季度的 2000 萬美元，然後是另一個增量——我只是——它沒有看到——它看起來像是 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元的淨增量明年與 2022 年相比。

Yes. I mean, it's another, call it, $36 million to $38 million in the first half and then something a little bit less than that in the second half of it going to 4%. So you're thinking about it the right way. But that's -- again, that's wage inflation. We know that there continues to be inflationary pressures, particularly in our purchase services category when you think about the labor that is contracted labor.

是的。我的意思是，這是另一個，稱之為，上半年 3600 萬到 3800 萬美元，然後比下半年少一點，達到 4%。因此，您正在以正確的方式考慮它。但那是 - 再次，這就是工資通脹。我們知道通脹壓力持續存在，尤其是在我們的採購服務類別中，當您考慮到合同工時。

So don't have the full year inflation number, not ready to share that. But there's certainly wage inflation, PEB inflation, but there will be inflation above that again, 5% for this year. I don't know that we'll be quite that next year, but it's going to be much higher than our normal, which -- or higher than what we thought kind of back at our May Analyst Day, which was 2.25%. We're well beyond that now.

所以沒有全年的通脹數字，不准備分享。但是肯定有工資通脹，PEB通脹，但通脹會再次高於這個水平，今年為5%。我不知道明年我們會不會如此，但它會比我們的正常水平高得多，或者高於我們在 5 月分析師日時認為的 2.25%。我們現在遠遠超出了這一點。

Yes, oh, yes. Ken, there was a question in there about...

是的，哦，是的。肯，裡面有一個關於...的問題

Yes, Amit, we're -- as you could imagine, we're looking at the economy and we're looking at our carloads daily, weekly, monthly. But as the velocity improves, there are some areas that we see demand out there. I mentioned coal. I mentioned rock, auto, finished vehicles. Auto parts is another area where we see quite a bit of demand that's out there. And so yes, I think that there's still an opportunity for us to capture more volume in the near term.

是的，阿米特，我們——正如你想像的那樣，我們正在關注經濟，我們每天、每週、每月都在關注我們的貨運量。但隨著速度的提高，我們看到了一些領域的需求。我提到了煤炭。我提到了搖滾，汽車，成品車。汽車零部件是另一個我們看到大量需求的領域。所以是的，我認為我們仍有機會在短期內獲得更多的交易量。

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Okay. Our next question will be from the line of Ben Nolan with Stifel.

好的。我們的下一個問題將來自 Ben Nolan 和 Stifel。

Yes. Actually, just to follow a little bit on the latter part of Amit's question there, just thinking about areas of the market that -- where you could pick up volume that maybe you're underserved at the moment. And thinking about the fourth quarter specifically, we've heard a lot about how there's water level problems in the Mississippi and the barges can't move around. Is it possible or do you have the capacity in the fourth quarter to maybe make up for that at all? Is it something that could in the immediate term be a little bit of a tailwind for you?

是的。實際上，只是在 Amit 的問題的後半部分稍加關注，只是想一想市場的領域——你可以在這些領域獲得可能你目前服務不足的交易量。特別考慮到第四季度，我們聽到了很多關於密西西比河水位問題和駁船無法移動的消息。是否有可能，或者您是否有能力在第四季度彌補這一點？在短期內，這對你來說是不是有點順風？

Yes. I'll tell you, we've been working with customers. We've been working closely with Eric's team. The short answer is yes. We've been talking to our customers. As you know, this will be incremental volume to what we have today. So based on that, we're working with our customers to make sure that the rates reflect that's incremental volume. But yes, I don't want to say that this is going to be a large amount of volume for us that we're going to take. But what you need to hear is that we're working with customers. I'm looking at Eric, we have a good plan to go out and capture some of that business. But again, that barge market, it's a huge amount of product that seems to be kind of misplaced right now.

是的。我會告訴你，我們一直在與客戶合作。我們一直在與 Eric 的團隊密切合作。簡短的回答是肯定的。我們一直在與客戶交談。如您所知，這將是我們今天擁有的數量的增量。因此，基於此，我們正在與我們的客戶合作，以確保費率反映的是增量數量。但是，是的，我不想說這對我們來說將是一個很大的容量。但你需要聽到的是我們正在與客戶合作。我在看埃里克，我們有一個很好的計劃去抓住一些業務。但是再一次，那個駁船市場，這是一個巨大的產品，現在似乎有點放錯地方了。

Yes. And Kenny, helping our owners understand this, we ship, in a normal year, grain to the river, up north on the river, and then it heads down the river. That's a carload. What's going to happen is the flow of those carloads is going to go all the way down to the Gulf. And so it's a carload, but it's a longer haul, and for sure, we see that demand showing up right now.

是的。肯尼，幫助我們的主人理解這一點，在正常年份，我們將穀物運送到河中，在河上向北，然後順著河而下。那是一車。將要發生的事情是，這些貨物將一路流向海灣。所以這是一車，但它是一個更長的距離，而且可以肯定的是，我們現在看到這種需求出現了。

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

I guess, Lance, the 55% OR target has proved pretty elusive for most carriers when they put it out there. And just in hindsight here, looking at what's happened in the last couple of years, as you try to get resources out, service falters, and you can't move the volume that's out there. Is that the right metric we should be focusing on anymore? I mean, does it even make sense to target a 55% OR, maybe something higher with more resources, but better asset turns? I mean, Jennifer did mention focusing on ROIC. So I guess, can you speak to that over the longer term?

我想，蘭斯，55% 的 OR 目標在大多數運營商提出時已經證明是非常難以捉摸的。只是事後看來，看看過去幾年發生的事情，當你試圖獲取資源時，服務會步履蹣跚，而且你無法移動那裡的數量。這是我們應該關注的正確指標嗎？我的意思是，以 55% 的 OR 為目標是否有意義，也許資源更多，但資產周轉率更高？我的意思是，詹妮弗確實提到了關注投資回報率。所以我想，你能從長遠來看嗎？

Yes, Brandon, and that's a fair question, but here's how we think about it. We do believe that, that 55% is achievable. We don't think it sacrifices the service product for a number of different reasons. You look backward in the last 2 years, as you know, there's just a lot of moving parts there that made -- that created unique headwinds that bit us pretty hard. This year, it was about us getting our resources wrong in terms of crew availability and for a number of reasons, the pandemic being one of them early on. It's a distant memory now because we're kind of living as if life is normal, but that had a real live impact on us from '21 heading into '22 when we first got behind.

是的，布蘭登，這是一個公平的問題，但這就是我們的想法。我們確實相信，這 55% 是可以實現的。我們認為它不會因為許多不同的原因而犧牲服務產品。回顧過去的 2 年，如您所知，那裡有很多移動的部件 - 創造了獨特的逆風，讓我們很難受。今年，我們在船員可用性方面弄錯了資源，原因有很多，大流行是其中之一。現在這是一個遙遠的記憶，因為我們的生活好像很正常，但這對我們從 21 年到 22 年我們第一次落後時產生了真正的影響。

Now setting that aside, your fundamental question is absolutely spot on, and we talked about this at Investor Day. We said just merely focusing on an operating ratio number, that isn't the right way to think about our business. We think more important to our business is long-term sustainable incremental margins. Being the railroad with a leading margin, we think we can do that. Our franchise sets us up for that and then growth, right? And that's what we fundamentally focused on at Investor Day.

現在拋開這一點，您的基本問題絕對是正確的，我們在投資者日討論了這個問題。我們說過只關注運營比率數字，這不是思考我們業務的正確方式。我們認為對我們的業務更重要的是長期可持續的增量利潤率。作為具有領先優勢的鐵路，我們認為我們可以做到這一點。我們的特許經營權讓我們為此做好準備，然後實現增長，對吧？這就是我們在投資者日的基本關注點。

The reason why we have to speak to the 55% right now is, candidly, it was a target we put out for this year. We thought it was quite achievable this year, and then a whole lot of stuff happened that made it difficult.

坦率地說，我們現在必須與 55% 的人交談的原因是，這是我們今年提出的目標。我們認為今年是可以實現的，然後發生了很多事情讓這變得困難。

The other thing to note is, we've achieved it in a couple of handful of quarters. And that's not the goal is to nail it once and then be done with it, right? The goal is we think that the business is set long term to be able to handle it. Now things could change, and you're pointing it out, Brandon. But they haven't changed yet to make us believe it's unachievable. More important to us right now is continued progress, get back on track of improving our margins and grow. And that's what we're focused on when we go into next year.

另一件需要注意的是，我們已經在幾個季度內實現了它。這不是目標是釘一次然後完成它，對吧？目標是我們認為該業務是長期設置的，以便能夠處理它。現在情況可能會發生變化，而你指出了這一點，布蘭登。但它們還沒有改變，讓我們相信這是無法實現的。現在對我們來說更重要的是持續進步，回到提高利潤率和增長的軌道上。這就是我們進入明年時關注的重點。

Yes. And we really we think about it, too, in terms of setting us up to be competitive in the marketplace and win. That's what having that very solid competitive cost structure does for us. And that gives Kenny and his team the ability to go out there and win new business to leverage across that very efficient franchise.

是的。我們真的在考慮它，也是為了讓我們在市場上具有競爭力並贏得勝利。這就是擁有非常穩固的具有競爭力的成本結構為我們所做的事情。這讓肯尼和他的團隊有能力走出去並贏得新業務，以利用這個非常高效的特許經營權。

100%. And again, I think we got to point this out. We are performing best at the top of the heap amongst our peers today, and I think we're going to repeat that again next year in terms of growth.

100%。再一次，我認為我們必須指出這一點。我們今天在同行中表現最好，我認為明年我們將在增長方面再次重複這一點。

The next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Walter Spracklin。

Just keeping on the OR focus here. I know you underline reported on that guidance. And I can understand you're kind of adjusting it for the third quarter, given that you're putting in some prior period adjustments. But isn't the 60% OR, I mean, that's taking into effect prior period under accounting for labor? So isn't 60% the right number for this year? It shouldn't be reported or it's not a number we should adjust? I know I'm going to get that confusion, and I know it's going to -- so I want to nip that in the bud now. Isn't that the right way to look? The 60% OR is the real number for this year and shouldn't be adjusted, is that right?

在這裡保持 OR 重點。我知道您在報告中強調了該指南。我可以理解你正在為第三季度進行調整，因為你正在進行一些前期調整。但是，我的意思是，60% OR 不是在考慮勞動力的情況下在前期生效嗎？那麼今年的 60% 不是正確的數字嗎？它不應該被報告或者它不是我們應該調整的數字？我知道我會感到困惑，而且我知道它會——所以我現在想把它扼殺在萌芽狀態。這不是正確的看待方式嗎？ 60% OR 是今年的真實數字，不應該調整，對嗎？

No, I wouldn't agree with that because the 60% OR includes, call it, $92 million and that's what's shown on that appendix slide for 2020 and 2021. And so that is -- those are dollars that really pertain to prior years where -- and again, it's primarily due to this bonus that we were under accrued. So while I wouldn't take the whole $114 million out, maybe that's to your point, I do think $92 million is the piece that you need to think about when you're thinking about repeatable OR.

不，我不同意這一點，因為 60% 的 OR 包括，稱之為 9200 萬美元，這就是 2020 年和 2021 年附錄幻燈片上顯示的內容。所以，這些美元確實與前幾年有關- 再一次，這主要是由於我們應計的獎金不足。因此，雖然我不會拿出全部 1.14 億美元，但也許這就是你的觀點，但我確實認為 9200 萬美元是你在考慮可重複 OR 時需要考慮的部分。

Okay. That -- okay. Got it. And then for next year, I heard the word confident a lot. I heard confident about price, confident about efficiency, but not confident enough to give the OR guide for next year of 55%. And I'm just -- what I didn't hear you say confident about was the volume outlook for next year given uncertainty of the macro. Is that the only thing that's keeping you back from giving a 55%? In other words, if we see even modest growth next year, is 55% achievable for next year?

好的。那——好吧。知道了。然後在明年，我聽到了很多自信這個詞。我聽說對價格有信心，對效率有信心，但沒有足夠的信心給明年 55% 的 OR 指導。我只是 - 我沒有聽到你說有信心的是明年的銷量前景，因為宏觀的不確定性。那是唯一阻止你付出 55% 的事情嗎？換句話說，如果我們明年看到即使是適度的增長，明年還能達到 55% 嗎？

No. Hopefully, what you heard from us is say that while we still absolutely have that goal, the road to getting there is longer. And it would be a pretty big stretch for us to go from, again, something less than a 60% when you take out the $92 million, but, call it, a high 59% kind of OR to get into that 55% range next year. That's not where we think that we can get to.

不。希望您從我們那裡聽到的是，雖然我們仍然絕對有這個目標，但實現目標的道路更長。當你拿出 9200 萬美元時，我們再次從不到 60% 的水平走下去，這將是一個相當大的延伸，但是，稱之為 59% 的高 OR，接下來進入 55% 的範圍年。那不是我們認為我們可以到達的地方。

We certainly believe that we can get improvement, and the level of that really is going to be dependent on how we see the macro environment shape up to a degree and that's where we're still putting the plan together. But that was what we were intending to communicate is, we can still get to a 55%, but we're not going to be able to snap back into that range we don't believe in 2023.

我們當然相信我們可以得到改進，而改進的程度實際上將取決於我們如何看待宏觀環境在一定程度上形成，這就是我們仍在製定計劃的地方。但這就是我們打算傳達的信息，我們仍然可以達到 55%，但我們無法在 2023 年重新回到我們不相信的範圍。

And that's the swing factor to volume. You feel confident enough that network fluidity and all those issues will be kind of resolved next year that, that won't be a significantly constraining factor. Is that right?

這就是交易量的波動因素。你有足夠的信心，網絡流動性和所有這些問題將在明年得到解決，這不會是一個顯著的限制因素。那正確嗎？

Yes. Running the railroad normally, being a normal kind of operation next year, that's not a constraint. The constraints are lots of incremental inflation. Volume, that's a question mark as to exactly what it's going to look like. So you've got that right. Next year is a normal railroad and basically back to squeezing out incremental efficiencies with a lot of inflation that we're going to have to find to overcome.

是的。正常運行鐵路，作為明年的正常運營，這不是限制。限制是大量的增量通貨膨脹。音量，這是一個問號，它到底會是什麼樣子。所以你說得對。明年是一條正常的鐵路，基本上會回到通過大量通貨膨脹來擠壓增量效率，我們將不得不設法克服這些通貨膨脹。

Yes, I was just going to say, as you know, we don't have the access to reprice 100% of our contracts next year. So there is a bit of some timing there as we catch up on some of those contracts as they roll.

是的，我只是想說，如你所知，我們無法在明年對我們的合同 100% 重新定價。因此，當我們趕上其中一些合同的滾動時，有一些時間安排。

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeff Kauffman。

Jen, just a quick question. That $114 million, does that represent an accrual on all outstanding labor contracts, including the ones not yet ratified? Or is that only for the agreements that have been ratified to this point?

珍，只是一個簡單的問題。那 1.14 億美元，是否代表所有未完成的勞動合同，包括尚未批准的勞動合同？還是僅適用於目前已批准的協議？

Yes. Thanks for that clarification. It is for all of the agreements, both ratified and tentative at this point because those are the deals that are literally on the table and that are waiting ratification. So that's what we know to be able to take the accrual for.

是的。感謝您的澄清。它適用於目前已批准和暫定的所有協議，因為這些協議實際上已經擺在桌面上並且正在等待批准。這就是我們所知道的能夠進行應計的事情。

The next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

下一個問題來自 Susquehanna 的 Bascome Majors 行。

Jennifer, when you look at the cost per employee trends, the 8% in the third quarter and the 7%, I think, you implied for the fourth quarter pretty close to the union wage increase for the second half of this year that started on July 1. As we look into next year with 7% wage increases continuing in the first half and 4% in the second half, is there anything that you can do to maybe get the realized cost per employee below that? Or is that actually kind of a decent proxy for the kind of inflation that you'll feel per head next year?

詹妮弗，當您查看每位員工的成本趨勢時，第三季度的 8% 和 7%，我認為，您暗示第四季度與今年下半年開始的工會工資增長非常接近7 月 1 日。我們展望明年，上半年工資增長 7%，下半年工資增長 4%，你有什麼辦法可以讓每位員工的實際成本低於這個數字？或者這實際上是你明年會感受到的那種通貨膨脹的一種體面的代表？

Yes. Thanks for that question. I mean, certainly, that's the starting point. But as you heard us talk today, where we will look to end out would be something less than that because we know there's inefficiencies in that and that we're working to squeeze that out. I referenced overtime and borrow-out costs, those are real headwinds to the overall cost structure relative to our employee costs. While we'll probably have borrow outs for a while as we're working to catch up in some of these hard-to-hire areas, we would hope to be in a position to certainly slim that down and then ultimately eliminate that as well as be able to manage the overtime better.

是的。謝謝你的問題。我的意思是，當然，這是起點。但正如你今天聽到我們的談話，我們希望結束的地方會比這要少，因為我們知道效率低下，我們正在努力將其擠出來。我提到了加班費和借貸成本，這些是相對於我們員工成本的整體成本結構的真正不利因素。雖然我們可能會在一段時間內借錢，因為我們正在努力趕上這些難以招聘的領域，但我們希望能夠肯定地減少這種情況，然後最終也消除這種情況因為能夠更好地管理加班。

Our next question is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens.

我們的下一個問題來自 Justin Long 和 Stephens 的對話。

Just to clarify that 2023 commentary, are you still assuming that you will be able to grow volumes next year? And as we think about your comment around improving the OR in 2023, is that predicated on that volume growth? Or do you feel like even if volumes are flat or maybe even down a little bit that you can still improve the OR from the cost takeout as network inefficiencies improve?

只是為了澄清 2023 年的評論，您是否仍然假設您將能夠在明年增加銷量？當我們考慮您關於在 2023 年改進 OR 的評論時，這是基於銷量增長嗎？或者您是否覺得即使交易量持平或什至略有下降，隨著網絡效率低下的改善，您仍然可以從成本扣除中提高 OR？

Yes. Thanks for that question, Justin. I mean, again, no numbers being given here today, but we have some good tailwinds as I think both Lance and Kenny have talked to you about in terms of volumes. We've got Schneider coming on, large piece of business. We have demand that we know we didn't move today on the coal market, some of our bulk markets, we know good construction demand going into next year from a rock standpoint. So our expectation is to be able to outperform the market as we said back at our Investor Day.

是的。謝謝賈斯汀的這個問題。我的意思是，今天這裡沒有給出任何數字，但我們有一些很好的順風，因為我認為 Lance 和 Kenny 已經就數量與你談過了。我們已經讓施耐德上任，這是一筆大生意。我們有需求，我們知道我們今天沒有在煤炭市場上移動，我們的一些大宗市場，我們知道從搖滾的角度來看，明年會有良好的建築需求。因此，正如我們在投資者日所說的那樣，我們的期望是能夠跑贏市場。

And so if you look at industrial production now, I think forecast for 2023 are in the negative range. But even outperforming that could put us on the positive side of the ledger a bit. So that's how we're shaping things up right now. I'm not going to give you degrees. And obviously, it's going to depend on what really ultimately happens. My crystal ball isn't quite that good yet to know exactly how the economy is going to fare next year. But we do like our setup going into the year, and that's how we're thinking about that at the moment.

因此，如果您現在查看工業生產，我認為 2023 年的預測處於負值範圍內。但即使表現出色也可能使我們在賬本的積極方面有所作為。所以這就是我們現在正在塑造的東西。我不會給你學位。顯然，這將取決於最終會發生什麼。我的水晶球還沒有那麼好，還不能確切地知道明年經濟將如何發展。但是我們確實喜歡我們的設置進入這一年，這就是我們目前正在考慮的方式。

The next question is from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to ask you a bit about truckload pricing sensitivity. I think there's generally a sense that given enough time, railroads can recover inflation with price. But you are looking to do that against a market where truck -- the truckload market is a lot more loose. So kind of how much of a barrier is that to accelerating your price? And how much of the book do you think really is sensitive to the truck market in terms of pricing?

我想問你一些關於整車定價敏感性的問題。我認為人們普遍認為，只要有足夠的時間，鐵路可以通過價格恢復通脹。但是您希望在卡車市場上這樣做 - 卡車市場更加寬鬆。那麼加速你的價格有多大的障礙呢？您認為這本書中有多少在定價方面對卡車市場真正敏感？

I guess the second one would just be on imports. Do you think -- I mean, it seems reasonable to think that import, container imports might be down next year. If they're down meaningfully, can you still grow your intermodal? Or is that a pretty tight link just in terms of import activity and UNP intermodal?

我想第二個只是進口。你認為 - 我的意思是，認為進口，集裝箱進口明年可能會下降似乎是合理的。如果他們有意義地下降，你還能發展你的多式聯運嗎？還是僅就進口活動和 UNP 多式聯運而言，這是一個非常緊密的聯繫？

Yes. So just, again, trying to differentiate the 2. On the domestic side, you're right, there's still a few more question marks there. As I stated a little bit earlier, we're going to get into our bids even here in December. We'll find out a little bit more about where the markets are. As I stated, there's still enough capacity constraint that are out there in the supply chain on the domestic side that could firm up some of the pricing. We just have to see how that plays out.

是的。因此，再次嘗試區分 2。在國內方面，您是對的，那裡還有幾個問號。正如我之前所說的，即使在 12 月，我們也會在這裡進行投標。我們將進一步了解市場的位置。正如我所說，國內供應鏈中仍有足夠的產能限制，這可能會鞏固一些定價。我們只需要看看結果如何。

On the international intermodal side, it's still too soon to tell what will happen there. I wanted to make sure that I really highlighted the fact that regardless of what's happening with the actual volume, the percentage of international rail volume has increased that's coming into the port. So again, last year, we talked a little bit about the fact that we had a larger percentage of our customers transloading on the West Coast port. Today, as we stand, we can see that our customers are now moving more of that via rail. So that's a positive for us.

在國際多式聯運方面，現在說那裡會發生什麼還為時過早。我想確保我確實強調了這樣一個事實，即無論實際貨運量如何，進入港口的國際鐵路貨運量的百分比都在增加。因此，去年，我們再次談到了我們有更大比例的客戶在西海岸港口轉運的事實。今天，就我們的立場而言，我們可以看到我們的客戶現在更多地通過鐵路運輸。所以這對我們來說是積極的。

Yes, those moving parts, Kenny and Tom, are hard to discern exactly how they're going to play out. It sure does look like inbound port container volume is going to be down in the -- certainly in the early part of next year. I mean, we're hearing enough markers of that. But depending on what happens with our percentage that's coming inland depends on what exactly we see, right?

是的，肯尼和湯姆這些活動部分很難準確判斷他們將如何發揮作用。看起來入境港口集裝箱數量確實會下降——當然是在明年年初。我的意思是，我們聽到了足夠多的標記。但是，取決於我們進入內陸的百分比會發生什麼，這取決於我們到底看到了什麼，對吧？

Right. Okay.

正確的。好的。

Our final question comes from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Sorry, I had some technical issues before. But just a quick question on the auto sector. Is that something that could deviate from the economy, just given dealer inventories at the lot as we think through to next year? I mean, will there need to be fill regardless to what happens to the consumer outlook?

抱歉，我之前遇到了一些技術問題。但只是關於汽車行業的一個簡單問題。考慮到我們認為到明年的經銷商庫存，這是否會偏離經濟？我的意思是，無論消費者前景如何，都需要填補嗎？

Yes, we certainly believe so. There are just a number of markers that point to it. I talked about the supply of the dealership is very low, much lower than what the OEMs wanted to be. Average age of a car out there now is 13 years old. There's just a lot of pent-up demand in terms of shippable, nonshippable, meaning the OEMs have actually produced the cars, and they haven't moved via rail yet. And then just the fact that, again, the part supply, the semiconductor chip, I think that's going to improve here. And so based on those things, we feel very bullish on that auto part and the finished vehicle side.

是的，我們當然相信。只有一些標記指向它。我談到經銷商的供應非常低，遠低於原始設備製造商想要的水平。現在汽車的平均年齡是 13 歲。在可運輸和不可運輸方面存在大量被壓抑的需求，這意味著原始設備製造商實際上已經生產了汽車，但他們還沒有通過鐵路運輸。然後只是事實，再次，零件供應，半導體芯片，我認為這裡會有所改善。因此，基於這些事情，我們對汽車零部件和整車方面感到非常看好。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Lance Fritz for closing comments.

問答環節到此結束。我現在將把電話轉回給 Lance Fritz 以結束評論。

Thank you, Rob. And thank you all for joining us this morning and for your questions. We look forward to talking with you again in January to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results. Until then, please take care.

謝謝你，羅布。感謝大家今天早上加入我們並提出問題。我們期待在 1 月份再次與您交談，討論我們的第四季度和全年業績。在那之前，請保重。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的參與。今天的電話會議到此結束。你可以斷開你的線路，並有一個美好的一天。