聯合太平洋集團 (UNP) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the Union Pacific First Quarter 2023 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎來到 Union Pacific 2023 年第一季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website.

提醒一下，本次會議正在錄製中，今天演示的幻燈片可在 Union Pacific 的網站上找到。

It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Lance Fritz, Chairman and CEO for Union Pacific. Thank you, Mr. Fritz. You may begin.

現在我很高興向您介紹主持人，聯合太平洋公司董事長兼首席執行官 Lance Fritz 先生。謝謝你，弗里茨先生。你可以開始了。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Union Pacific's First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. With me today in Omaha are Kenny Rocker, Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales; Eric Gehringer, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Jennifer Hamann, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝羅布，大家早上好，歡迎來到聯合太平洋第一季度收益電話會議。今天和我一起在奧馬哈的有營銷和銷售執行副總裁 Kenny Rocker；運營執行副總裁 Eric Gehringer；和我們的首席財務官 Jennifer Hamann。

The story of the past quarter for Union Pacific is one of resiliency, battling heavy snow, arctic temperatures, flooding and tornadoes, the team maintained service levels and exited the quarter positive trajectory, persevering through those harsh conditions our employees delivered for our customers, which demonstrates again that our people are the foundation for the great things that lie ahead.

Union Pacific 上個季度的故事是一個充滿彈性的故事，與大雪、北極溫度、洪水和龍捲風作鬥爭，團隊保持了服務水平並退出了本季度的積極軌道，堅持通過我們的員工為客戶提供的嚴酷條件，這再次證明我們的人民是未來偉大事業的基礎。

Turning to the first quarter results. This morning, Union Pacific is reporting 2023 first quarter net income of $1.6 billion or $2.67 per share. This compares to first quarter 2022 results of $1.6 billion or $2.57 per share. Our first quarter operating ratio of 62.1% deteriorated 270 basis points versus 2022 driven by excess costs, inflation and lower volumes.

轉向第一季度業績。今天上午，聯合太平洋報告 2023 年第一季度淨收入為 16 億美元或每股 2.67 美元。相比之下，2022 年第一季度的業績為 16 億美元或每股 2.57 美元。由於成本過高、通貨膨脹和銷量下降，我們第一季度的營業率為 62.1%，與 2022 年相比下降了 270 個基點。

A series of weather events throughout the quarter had a real impact on our ability to capture demand, especially within our coal business as well as added cost to the network. Through those events, our service products showed greater and greater resiliency, quickly rebounding each time as we were better positioned with crew resources to support our customers. And with April month-to-date, freight car velocity is about 200 miles per day.

整個季度的一系列天氣事件對我們捕捉需求的能力產生了實際影響，尤其是在我們的煤炭業務中，同時也增加了網絡成本。通過這些事件，我們的服務產品顯示出越來越大的彈性，每次都迅速反彈，因為我們可以更好地利用船員資源來支持我們的客戶。從 4 月至今，貨車速度約為每天 200 英里。

We are operating a network that is positioned for consistent and reliable service. While a more difficult start to the year than expected, it doesn't reduce our expectations for 2023. As you'll hear from the team, all of our goals are still in front of us.

我們正在運營一個旨在提供一致和可靠服務的網絡。雖然今年的開局比預期的要困難，但這並沒有降低我們對 2023 年的期望。正如您將從團隊中聽到的那樣，我們所有的目標仍然擺在我們面前。

Let me turn it over to Kenny for an update on the business environment.

讓我把它轉交給肯尼，了解商業環境的最新情況。

Thank you, Lance, and good morning. Freight revenue for the first quarter increased 4% driven by higher fuel surcharges and solid pricing gains partially offset by a 1% decline in volume. Bulk volumes were muted in the quarter as weather and service-related challenges impacted shipments. Additionally, weaker market conditions for premium also drove lower volume for the first quarter. However, our strong focus on business development and new business wins partially offset by some of that decline.

謝謝你，蘭斯，早上好。第一季度的貨運收入增長了 4%，這主要得益於更高的燃油附加費和穩定的定價收益，部分被貨運量下降 1% 所抵消。由於天氣和與服務相關的挑戰影響了出貨量，本季度的散貨量有所減少。此外，保費市場環境疲軟也導致第一季度銷量下降。然而，我們對業務發展和新業務的強烈關注部分被這種下降所抵消。

Let's take a closer look at each of these business groups. Starting with bulk. Revenue for the quarter was up 4% compared to last year driven by a 7% increase in average revenue per car reflecting higher fuel surcharges and solid core pricing gains. Volume was down 3% year-over-year.

讓我們仔細看看這些業務組中的每一個。從散裝開始。本季度收入比去年同期增長 4%，這主要是由於燃油附加費上漲和核心定價收益穩固，每輛汽車的平均收入增長了 7%。銷量同比下降 3%。

Grain and grain products volume was down 1%, driven by weaker export grain shipments as world demand for U.S. grain has softened, coupled with drought impacts affecting supply in UP's SAAR region. Fertilizer carloads were flat in the quarter.

穀物和穀物產品銷量下降 1%，原因是世界對美國穀物的需求疲軟導致出口穀物出貨量減少，加上旱災影響了 UP 的 SAAR 地區的供應。本季度肥料車運量持平。

Strong export potash was offset by a decline in phosphate volume from weather conditions delaying shipments. Food and refrigerated volume was down 6% due to reduced beer imports and weather conditions negatively impacting both fresh and can shipments. And lastly, coal and renewable volumes was down 4% compared to last year driven by weather interruptions and associated service challenges that impacted our locomotive and crew resources.

強勁的鉀肥出口被天氣條件延遲發貨導致的磷酸鹽產量下降所抵消。由於啤酒進口減少以及天氣狀況對新鮮和罐頭裝運產生負面影響，食品和冷藏量下降了 6%。最後，由於天氣中斷和影響我們機車和機組人員資源的相關服務挑戰，煤炭和可再生能源的數量與去年相比下降了 4%。

Moving on to industrial. industrial revenue was up 5% for the quarter driven by a 5% improvement in average revenue per car due to higher fuel surcharges and core pricing gains. Volume for the quarter was flat. Industrial chemicals and plastics volume was down 2% year-over-year driven by lower industrial chemical shipments due to challenged industrial production and reduced housing demand.

繼續工業。由於更高的燃油附加費和核心定價收益，每輛汽車的平均收入增長了 5%，推動本季度工業收入增長了 5%。本季度的交易量持平。工業化學品和塑料銷量同比下降 2%，這是由於工業生產面臨挑戰和住房需求減少導致工業化學品出貨量下降。

Metals and minerals volumes continued to deliver year-over-year growth. Volume was up 3% compared to last year primarily driven by growth in construction materials and increased flat sand shipments, along with new business development wins.

金屬和礦物銷量繼續實現同比增長。與去年相比，銷量增長了 3%，這主要是由於建築材料的增長和扁砂出貨量的增加，以及新業務開發的勝利。

Forest products volume declined 19% year-over-year driven by soft housing starts and lower corrugated box demand for nondurable goods shipments. However, energy and specialized shipments were up 6% versus last year driven by strength in demand for LPG and petroleum products. These gains were partially offset by fewer soda ash shipments due to weather and service-related challenges.

受軟房屋開工和非耐用品出貨的瓦楞紙箱需求下降的推動，林產品銷量同比下降 19%。然而，由於對液化石油氣和石油產品的需求強勁，能源和專業產品的出貨量比去年增長了 6%。由於天氣和服務相關挑戰，純鹼出貨量減少部分抵消了這些收益。

Turning to premium. Revenue for the quarter was up 3% on a 1% decrease in volume compared to last year. Average revenue per car increased by 5%, reflecting higher fuel surcharge revenue and core pricing gains. Automotive volumes were positively driven by strengthening OEM production and dealer inventory replenishment for finished vehicles.

轉向溢價。與去年同期相比，本季度收入增長 3%，銷量下降 1%。每輛車的平均收入增長了 5%，反映出更高的燃油附加費收入和核心定價收益。整車 OEM 生產和經銷商庫存補充的加強推動了汽車銷量的增長。

Domestic intermodal business wins were offset by a weak freight and parcel market driven by high inventory, increased truck capacity and inflationary pressures. On the international side, despite weakened imports, more container ship inland versus the first quarter of last year, resulting in year-over-year growth.

高庫存、卡車運力增加和通脹壓力導致貨運和包裹市場疲軟，抵消了國內多式聯運業務的增長。在國際方面，儘管進口疲軟，但與去年第一季度相比，內陸集裝箱船數量增加，導致同比增長。

So now moving on to Slide 7. Here is our outlook for the rest of 2023 as we see it today. Starting with our bulk commodities, we expect grain to be challenged near term as export demand softens and supply tightens throughout this crop year. However, as we look ahead towards the next crop season in late fall, we're encouraged by the initial forecast.

現在轉到幻燈片 7。這是我們今天看到的 2023 年剩餘時間的展望。從我們的大宗商品開始，我們預計隨著整個作物年度的出口需求疲軟和供應緊張，糧食在短期內將受到挑戰。然而，當我們展望秋末的下一個作物季節時，我們對初步預測感到鼓舞。

For coal, low natural gas prices and a milder winter allow utilities to build more inventory. We are experiencing normal softness through the shoulder months. Looking further out in the year, demand will largely be dependent on natural gas prices and summer weather.

對於煤炭，較低的天然氣價格和較溫和的冬季使公用事業公司能夠建立更多庫存。我們在整個肩月都經歷著正常的柔軟。展望未來，需求將在很大程度上取決於天然氣價格和夏季天氣。

Lastly, we expect biofuel shipments of renewable diesel and their associated feedstocks to grow due to solid market demand, new production coming online and business development wins.

最後，我們預計可再生柴油及其相關原料的生物燃料出貨量將增長，原因是市場需求強勁、新產品上線以及業務發展取得成功。

Moving on to industrial. The forecast for industrial production is to shrink in 2023, and the demand is getting weaker in forest products. However, we expect to see continued strength in construction and metal with new business wins.

繼續工業。預測2023年工業生產萎縮，林產品需求趨弱。然而，我們預計隨著新業務的贏得，建築和金屬行業將繼續走強。

And finally, for premium, we expect near-term challenges in the intermodal market from high inventory levels, inflationary pressures and weak consumer spending as people shift back to spend more towards services than goods. We will be closely watching for a potential market uptick in the latter part of the year. In addition, we expect automotive growth to continue, driven by strong OEM production and dealer inventory replenishment.

最後，對於保費，我們預計高庫存水平、通脹壓力和疲軟的消費者支出將在多式聯運市場帶來近期挑戰，因為人們將更多的錢轉向服務而不是商品。我們將密切關註今年下半年潛在的市場回升。此外，在強勁的 OEM 生產和經銷商庫存補充的推動下，我們預計汽車行業將繼續增長。

So to wrap up, we are facing economic uncertainty and a tough price environment in a few of our markets, but we expect to see strength in some other commodity areas. Our diverse portfolio allows us to maintain our pricing guidance.

因此，總而言之，我們的一些市場面臨經濟不確定性和嚴峻的價格環境，但我們預計其他一些商品領域會走強。我們多樣化的產品組合使我們能夠維持我們的定價指導。

To capture more demand, we are working closely with Eric and his team to be agile and have resources available in locations where we need them. I am confident that the team's relentless focus on business development will drive volumes to exceed industrial production this year.

為了捕捉更多需求，我們正在與埃里克和他的團隊密切合作，以保持敏捷，並在我們需要的地方提供可用資源。我相信，該團隊對業務發展的不懈關注將推動今年的產量超過工業產量。

With that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

有了這個，我會把它交給埃里克來審查我們的運營績效。

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Starting on Slide 9. We continue to make great strides on safety, as evidenced by our 10% improvement in derailment performance for the first quarter. While encouraging progress on safety, our goal remains a future with zero incidents and zero injuries. .

謝謝你，肯尼，早上好。從幻燈片 9 開始。我們在安全方面繼續取得長足進步，第一季度出軌性能提高 10% 就證明了這一點。在鼓勵安全方面取得進展的同時，我們的目標仍然是零事故和零傷害的未來。 .

We've made progress on derailments by implementing state-of-the-art technology, like precision train builder and our geometry inspection fleet. This is on top of our network of more than 7,000 wayside detection devices and our 24/7 operating practices command center.

我們通過實施最先進的技術（例如精密列車製造商和我們的幾何檢測車隊）在脫軌問題上取得了進展。這是在我們的 7,000 多個路邊檢測設備網絡和我們的 24/7 運營實踐指揮中心之上。

Further supporting our efforts, in March, the industry announced a set of key safety actions. These include the installation of additional wayside detectors and enhanced standards for how we proactively use and share critical data. In addition, the industry is expanding efforts in first responder training and deploying technology to provide real-time railcar condition monitoring.

為了進一步支持我們的努力，3 月份，業界宣布了一系列關鍵安全行動。其中包括安裝額外的路邊探測器，以及針對我們如何主動使用和共享關鍵數據的增強標準。此外，該行業正在擴大急救人員培訓和部署技術的力度，以提供實時軌道車狀態監控。

The railroad industry remains one of the safest transportation modes in the nation. And through our capital renewal program, Union Pacific invests almost $2 billion annually back into its network to further improve safety.

鐵路行業仍然是美國最安全的交通方式之一。通過我們的資本更新計劃，聯合太平洋每年向其網絡投資近 20 億美元，以進一步提高安全性。

Now moving to Slide 10 for a look at our current operational performance. As Lance mentioned, Mother Nature made her presence felt across the Union Pacific -- season, bringing extreme weather in many forms. UP crews in California battled flash flooding, persistent mudslides and heavy snow. The Central Sierras, for example, recorded over 700 inches of snow this season.

現在轉到幻燈片 10 查看我們當前的運營績效。正如蘭斯所提到的，大自然母親在整個聯合太平洋季節都感受到了她的存在，帶來了多種形式的極端天氣。加利福尼亞州的 UP 工作人員與山洪暴發、持續的泥石流和大雪作鬥爭。例如，中部山脈本季的降雪量超過 700 英寸。

That's 222% above historical averages. Employees across our central corridor in upper Midwest portions of our system also worked through prolonged blizzards, ice and arctic temperatures. These events challenged our ability to maintain a fluid operating state on specific portions of the system.

這比歷史平均水平高出 222%。穿過我們系統中西部上部中央走廊的員工也在長時間的暴風雪、冰和北極溫度下工作。這些事件挑戰了我們在系統特定部分保持流暢運行狀態的能力。

However, thanks to the dedication and proactive efforts of our employees, the network quickly recovered after each event. And as the chart on Slide 10 demonstrates, we're exiting the quarter on a positive trajectory versus the congested state we were entering this time last year.

然而，由於我們員工的奉獻和積極努力，網絡在每次活動後都迅速恢復。正如幻燈片 10 上的圖表所示，與我們去年這個時候進入的擁擠狀態相比，我們正以積極的軌跡退出本季度。

Our April month-to-date metrics show a network in a healthier state with freight car velocity at 200 miles per day, intermodal TPC in the high 70s and manifest TPC on the rise as well. That result also reflects our hiring efforts as we focus on backfilling attrition and targeting locations where crude challenges persist.

我們 4 月至今的指標顯示網絡處於更健康的狀態，貨車速度為每天 200 英里，多式聯運 TPC 處於 70 年代的高位，並且明顯的 TPC 也在上升。這一結果也反映了我們的招聘努力，因為我們專注於回填人員流失和瞄準那些嚴峻挑戰持續存在的地點。

We currently have around 1,000 employees in training, which is an increase of approximately 500 versus last year. In addition, we have utilized borrowed out employees to address hard to hire locations and get crews where needed.

我們目前有大約 1,000 名員工在接受培訓，比去年增加了大約 500 人。此外，我們利用借來的員工來解決難以僱用的地點，並在需要的地方派遣工作人員。

Now let's review our key performance metrics for the quarter, starting on Slide 11. Sequentially, we held our ground through the obstacles of the quarter. Both freight car velocity and manifest and auto trip plan compliance made slight improvements from last quarter's results.

現在讓我們回顧一下本季度的關鍵績效指標，從幻燈片 11 開始。隨後，我們在本季度的障礙中堅守陣地。貨車速度和清單以及汽車行程計劃合規性與上一季度的結果相比略有改善。

Intermodal trip plan compliance remained effectively flat as we battled resource imbalances driven by weather interruptions. With our current traffic mix, freight car velocity consistently running around 200 to 205 miles per day will strengthen our entire service product, including bulk, manifest and intermodal performance.

在我們與天氣中斷導致的資源失衡作鬥爭時，多式聯運旅行計劃的合規性實際上保持平穩。在我們目前的交通組合下，貨車速度始終保持在每天 200 至 205 英里左右，這將加強我們的整個服務產品，包括散貨、艙單和聯運性能。

Turning to Slide 12 to review our network efficiency metrics. Locomotive productivity dropped 5% versus first quarter 2022. However, it remained flat sequentially from last quarter's results as we continue to operate a larger locomotive fleet in an effort to support the recovery of the network.

轉到幻燈片 12 查看我們的網絡效率指標。與 2022 年第一季度相比，機車生產率下降了 5%。但是，由於我們繼續運營更大的機車車隊以支持網絡的恢復，因此與上一季度的結果相比仍持平。

In the second quarter, the team is focused on moving more freight and rightsizing the fleet. To that point, we are in the process of storing over 100 units to at the ready status.

在第二季度，該團隊專注於運送更多貨物和調整車隊規模。到那時，我們正在將 100 多個單元存儲到就緒狀態。

First quarter workforce productivity declined 6% to 991 daily miles per FTE driven by an increased number of trainees and lower volumes. Our strong training pipeline supports our ability to capture available demand and future growth while managing attrition and reducing borrowed out employees. As employees graduate from training, we expect productivity to improve.

由於受訓人員數量增加和產量下降，第一季度勞動力生產率下降 6% 至每 FTE 每天 991 英里。我們強大的培訓管道支持我們捕捉可用需求和未來增長的能力，同時管理人員流失和減少借來的員工。隨著員工從培訓中畢業，我們預計生產率會提高。

Train length is effectively flat compared to last quarter's results. Lower intermodal traffic, coupled with extreme cold temperatures across the northern tier of our network presented a headwind to our train length initiatives for the quarter. The team remains committed to strengthening the network while we're covering loss productivity.

與上一季度的結果相比，列車長度實際上持平。較低的多式聯運交通量，加上我們網絡北部的極端寒冷溫度，對我們本季度的列車長度計劃造成了不利影響。在我們彌補生產力損失的同時，該團隊仍致力於加強網絡。

Wrapping up on Slide 13. The success drivers for 2023 remain unchanged. And the entire team is dedicated to building on the momentum gained as we exited the quarter. We remain committed to addressing employees' quality of life feedback and are pleased with the recent agreements regarding paid sick leave. We will continue to work diligently in finding win-win solutions that enable a strong service product and provide our employees with more consistent work schedules.

總結幻燈片 13。2023 年的成功驅動因素保持不變。整個團隊都致力於在我們退出本季度時獲得的勢頭基礎上再接再厲。我們仍然致力於解決員工的生活質量反饋問題，並對最近關於帶薪病假的協議感到滿意。我們將繼續努力尋找雙贏的解決方案，以提供強大的服務產品並為我們的員工提供更一致的工作時間表。

In addition, as you heard from Kenny, we continue to aggressively look for opportunities to strengthen volumes. With the service product demonstrating resiliency, we have added back train sets and targeted freight cars to the network to capture available demand. I am confident that the foundation we're laying will provide a safer, more consistent and reliable service product to meet the growth needs of our customers.

此外，正如你從肯尼那裡聽到的那樣，我們繼續積極尋找機會來增加銷量。憑藉展示彈性的服務產品，我們在網絡中添加了回程列車和有針對性的貨車，以捕捉可用需求。我相信，我們正在奠定的基礎將提供更安全、更一致和可靠的服務產品，以滿足客戶的增長需求。

With that, I will turn it over to Jennifer to review our financial performance.

有了這個，我將把它交給詹妮弗來審查我們的財務業績。

Thanks, Eric, and good morning. We'll start on Slide 15 with a look at our first quarter income statement. Operating revenue totaled $6.1 billion, up 3% versus 2022 despite a 1% year-over-year volume decline. Other revenue decreased 5%, driven by $30 million of increased subsidiary revenue, which was more than offset by a $50 million reduction in accessorials.

謝謝，埃里克，早上好。我們將從幻燈片 15 開始，查看我們的第一季度損益表。儘管銷量同比下降 1%，但營業收入總計 61 億美元，比 2022 年增長 3%。其他收入下降了 5%，這是由於附屬收入增加了 3000 萬美元，這被配件減少 5000 萬美元所抵消。

Lower intermodal volume and greater supply chain fluidity drove the accessorial decline. Operating expense increased 8% to $3.8 billion, resulting in first quarter operating income of $2.3 billion, down 3% versus last year. Below the line, other income increased $137 million year-over-year, largely driven by a $107 million one-time real estate transaction that contributed $0.14 to earnings per share. Interest expense increased 9%, reflecting higher debt levels.

較低的多式聯運量和更大的供應鏈流動性推動了配件的下降。營業費用增加 8% 至 38 億美元，導致第一季度營業收入為 23 億美元，比去年同期下降 3%。在此線之下，其他收入同比增長 1.37 億美元，這主要是由於一項 1.07 億美元的一次性房地產交易為每股收益貢獻了 0.14 美元。利息支出增加 9%，反映出較高的債務水平。

Net income of $1.6 billion was flat versus 2022 and but when combined with share repurchases, resulted in a 4% increase in earnings per share to $2.67. Our first quarter operating ratio increased 2.7 points to 62.1%. Following fuel prices during the quarter and the lag on our fuel surcharge programs positively impacted our operating ratio by 190 basis points.

16 億美元的淨收入與 2022 年持平，但與股票回購相結合，導致每股收益增長 4% 至 2.67 美元。我們第一季度的運營比率增加了 2.7 個百分點，達到 62.1%。本季度的燃油價格上漲以及燃油附加費計劃的滯後對我們的運營比率產生了 190 個基點的積極影響。

Core results offset the fuel benefit and were a 460 basis point drag to operating ratio. Included in that is the impact of weather, which is difficult to quantify, but between both lost revenue and additional expense, we estimate to be in excess of $50 million.

核心結果抵消了燃料效益，拖累運營比率為 460 個基點。其中包括難以量化的天氣影響，但在收入損失和額外費用之間，我們估計超過 5000 萬美元。

Now looking more closely at first quarter revenue. Slide 16 provides a breakdown of our freight revenue, which totaled $5.7 billion (sic) million, up 4% versus last year. Lower year-over-year volume reduced revenue, 150 basis points. Total fuel surcharge revenue of $883 million added 475 basis points to freight revenue, reflecting the lag in our programs.

現在更密切地關注第一季度的收入。幻燈片 16 提供了我們的貨運收入明細，總計 57 億美元（原文如此），比去年增長 4%。同比銷量下降導致收入減少 150 個基點。 8.83 億美元的燃油附加費總收入使貨運收入增加了 475 個基點，反映出我們計劃的滯後。

The combination of price and mix increased freight revenue 75 basis points as ongoing pricing actions were mostly offset by our business mix. Fewer lumber shipments and more short-haul rock shipments were the primary drivers of the negative mix.

價格和組合的結合使貨運收入增加了 75 個基點，因為持續的定價行動大部分被我們的業務組合所抵消。木材出貨量減少和短途岩石出貨量增加是負面組合的主要驅動因素。

Turning now to Slide 17 and a summary of our first quarter operating expenses, which totaled $3.8 billion (sic) [million]. Compensation and benefits expense increased 7% versus 2022. First quarter workforce levels increased 4% with transportation employees up 5%, the result of our dedicated hiring efforts over the last 12 to 15 months.

現在轉到幻燈片 17 和我們第一季度運營費用的摘要，總計 38 億美元（原文如此）[百萬]。與 2022 年相比，薪酬和福利支出增加了 7%。第一季度勞動力水平增加了 4%，其中運輸部門員工增加了 5%，這是我們在過去 12 至 15 個月的專門招聘工作的結果。

Cost per employee only increased 3% in the quarter as wage inflation was partially offset by a larger training pipeline.

由於工資上漲被更大的培訓渠道部分抵消，本季度每位員工的成本僅增長了 3%。

During the first quarter, we signed agreements with the majority of our labor unions to provide paid sick leave to our employees. These agreements became effective April 1 and represent just under half of our craft professionals. Assuming we are able to reach agreements across the board, we would expect cost per employee to be up mid-single digits for the year, consistent with what we discussed in January.

在第一季度，我們與大多數工會簽署了協議，為我們的員工提供帶薪病假。這些協議於 4 月 1 日生效，代表了我們近一半的工藝專業人員。假設我們能夠全面達成協議，我們預計今年每位員工的成本將上升到中等個位數，這與我們在 1 月份討論的內容一致。

Fuel expense grew 7% on a 9% increase in fuel prices as we moved less freight. Our fuel consumption rate deteriorated 1% as the impact of our fuel conservation efforts was more than offset by reduced network fluidity. Purchased services and materials expense increased 16% driven by maintenance of a 3% larger active locomotive fleet and inflation.

由於運費減少，燃油價格上漲 9%，燃油費用上漲 7%。我們的燃油消耗率下降了 1%，因為我們節油工作的影響被網絡流動性降低所抵消。購買的服務和材料費用增加了 16%，這是由於維護了 3% 的現役機車車隊和通貨膨脹。

Equipment and other rents was up 9% as a result of increased car hire expense related to elevated cycle times, and the other expense line grew 6% related primarily to higher environmental remediation costs.

由於與循環時間延長相關的租車費用增加，設備和其他租金增長了 9%，而其他費用項目增長了 6%，主要與更高的環境修復成本有關。

Turning to Slide 18 and our cash flows. Cash from operations in the first quarter decreased to $1.8 billion from $2.2 billion in 2022. The primary driver was Presidential Emergency Board back pay settlements paid in January which totaled $383 million. That payment also impacted our quarterly cash flow conversion rate and free cash flow, with both roughly in line with last year's performance when you exclude that payment.

轉向幻燈片 18 和我們的現金流量。第一季度的運營現金從 2022 年的 22 億美元減少到 18 億美元。主要驅動因素是 1 月份支付的總統緊急委員會欠薪結算，總額為 3.83 億美元。這筆付款還影響了我們的季度現金流量轉換率和自由現金流量，兩者在您排除該筆付款時與去年的表現大致一致。

In the quarter, we returned $1.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. And we finished the first quarter with an adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.9x as we continue to be A-rated by our 3 credit agencies.

本季度，我們通過股息和股票回購向股東返還了 14 億美元。我們在第一季度結束時調整後的債務與 EBITDA 比率為 2.9 倍，因為我們繼續被我們的 3 家信用機構評為 A 級。

Wrapping up on Slide 19, we are maintaining our 2023 full year guidance to achieve volumes above industrial production, price gains in excess of inflation and operating ratio improvement. Our plans for capital allocation also are unchanged.

在幻燈片 19 的總結中，我們維持 2023 年全年目標，以實現產量高於工業生產、價格漲幅高於通脹和運營比率改善。我們的資本配置計劃也沒有改變。

As with every year, there are puts and takes to how the year plays out. While 2023 started a bit slower than expected, I need to remind everyone, it is only April 20. We have 8.5 months in front of us and many opportunities with volume, service and productivity.

與每年一樣，今年的結果也有看跌期權和看跌期權。雖然 2023 年的開局比預期的要慢一些，但我需要提醒大家，現在才 4 月 20 日。我們面前還有 8.5 個月的時間，還有很多關於數量、服務和生產力的機會。

Before I turn it back to Lance, I'd like to express my thanks to the UP team. We are skilled in running the outdoor factory that is our railroad. But Mother Nature seemed very focused on testing those skills this year given the extremes we faced, and yet the team forged ahead, keeping the network fluid and our customers served. Fantastic work by everyone.

在我把它轉回給 Lance 之前，我想對 UP 團隊表示感謝。我們擅長經營作為我們鐵路的戶外工廠。但考慮到我們面臨的極端情況，今年大自然母親似乎非常專注於測試這些技能，但團隊仍在努力前進，保持網絡流暢並為我們的客戶提供服務。每個人的出色工作。

With that, I'll turn it back to Lance.

有了這個，我會把它轉回給蘭斯。

And thank you, Jennifer. As Eric discussed, we continue to make great strides on safety. Derailments have been in the spotlight recently. The entire industry understands the critical role we play in support of the communities we serve. In fact, since 2000, Union Pacific's mainline derailments are down almost 30%, helping make this past decade the safest for the rail industry. Working collaboratively and proactively, the industry can further improve on that safety record.

謝謝你，詹妮弗。正如埃里克所討論的那樣，我們繼續在安全方面取得長足進步。脫軌事件最近成為人們關注的焦點。整個行業都了解我們在支持我們所服務的社區方面發揮的關鍵作用。事實上，自 2000 年以來，聯合太平洋公司的干線脫軌事故減少了近 30%，這使過去十年成為鐵路行業最安全的十年。通過積極主動地協作，該行業可以進一步改善安全記錄。

Looking forward, as you heard from Kenny, consumer-facing markets are in rough shape right now. Importantly, though, there remain opportunities to capture additional demand in a number of markets. The entire team is executing a plan to capture those additional carloads supported by an improved service product.

展望未來，正如您從 Kenny 那裡聽到的那樣，面向消費者的市場目前狀況不佳。但重要的是，仍有機會在許多市場中抓住額外的需求。整個團隊正在執行一項計劃，以捕獲由改進的服務產品支持的那些額外的車輛負載。

Finally, with Earth Day approaching, I'd like to highlight the actions Union Pacific is taking to protect our planet. At the end of 2022, we released our second annual climate action plan, highlighting updates to achieve our greenhouse gas emission reduction targets.

最後，隨著地球日的臨近，我想強調聯合太平洋公司為保護我們的星球所採取的行動。 2022 年底，我們發布了第二份年度氣候行動計劃，重點介紹了為實現我們的溫室氣體減排目標所做的更新。

This includes our goal of net zero emissions by 2050. Over the past year, we've turbocharged our locomotive modernization program. We've committed to both battery and hybrid electric locomotive, and we've increased our biodiesel blend to over 5%. And we're being recognized for that work.

這包括我們到 2050 年實現淨零排放的目標。在過去的一年裡，我們推進了機車現代化計劃。我們致力於電池和混合動力電力機車，並將我們的生物柴油混合比例提高到 5% 以上。我們因這項工作而受到認可。

This past year, Union Pacific was selected as a member of the Dow Jones Sustainability Index for the first time. And we were the highest ranked railroad in the transportation category on Fortune's most admired companies. Union Pacific is committed to being a sustainability leader, driving long-term value for all of our stakeholders.

去年，聯合太平洋首次入選道瓊斯可持續發展指數。在《財富》雜誌最受尊敬的公司中，我們是運輸類別中排名最高的鐵路公司。聯合太平洋致力於成為可持續發展的領導者，為我們所有的利益相關者創造長期價值。

Before turning to Q&A, as it relates to the CEO search process, the Board is fully engaged in executing its duty to identify the next leader. And I can say from personal experience what a wonderful job it is to be at the helm of a company like Union Pacific.

在轉向問答環節之前，因為它與 CEO 搜索過程相關，董事會正在全力履行其職責，以確定下一任領導者。我可以根據個人經驗說，掌舵像 Union Pacific 這樣的公司是多麼美妙的工作。

I'll continue to lead the team until the new CEO is identified, and I'm energized by what we can accomplish in the coming months. as well as the great potential this company has for years into the future.

在確定新 CEO 之前，我將繼續領導團隊，未來幾個月我們將取得的成就讓我充滿活力。以及這家公司未來幾年的巨大潛力。

With that, let's open up the line for your questions.

有了這個，讓我們打開你的問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Scott Group 與 Wolfe Research 的合作。

Lance, any timing on CEO search? And any thoughts on what you and the Board are looking for? And then Jennifer, margins down 270 basis points. Obviously, we need some nice improvement the rest of the year to get to full year improvement.

蘭斯，尋找 CEO 有時間嗎？對您和董事會正在尋找的東西有什麼想法嗎？然後是詹妮弗，利潤率下降了 270 個基點。顯然，我們需要在今年餘下時間進行一些不錯的改進才能實現全年改進。

Can you help us bridge us to that full year improvement? And any thoughts on second quarter? It's an easier comp. Do you think margins inflect positive in Q2? Just any thoughts?

你能幫助我們實現全年的改進嗎？對第二季度有什麼想法嗎？這是一個更容易的比賽。您認為第二季度的利潤率會出現積極變化嗎？有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. Thank you, Scott. So I'll just circle back to the press release that the Board sent when they announced earlier in the year that we were in the process of identifying a new CEO. They were clear on what they were looking for then, right, a track record and experience in safety, and customer service, business development, clear vision on culture and a good operating experience. So they are crystal clear on what they're searching for. And the only update I have for you is we're using an excellent third party, external consultant, and they're being very thorough in their search, which is underway.

是的。謝謝你，斯科特。因此，我將回到董事會在今年早些時候宣布我們正在物色新 CEO 的過程中發送的新聞稿。他們當時很清楚他們在尋找什麼，對，在安全、客戶服務、業務發展、清晰的文化願景和良好的運營經驗方面的業績記錄和經驗。所以他們非常清楚自己在尋找什麼。我要告訴你的唯一更新是我們正在使用一個優秀的第三方，外部顧問，他們正在進行非常徹底的搜索。

So then, Scott, to your OR question, I mean, you're exactly right. We need to make sequential improvement through the year, and then that needs to become year-over-year improvement at some point for us to be able to meet that guidance. The factors that are going to help drive that, certainly, fuel is something that is looking different to us this year than it did last year.

那麼，斯科特，對於你的 OR 問題，我的意思是，你完全正確。我們需要在一年中進行連續改進，然後在某個時候需要逐年改進，以便我們能夠滿足該指導。將有助於推動這一趨勢的因素，當然，今年我們對燃料的看法與去年有所不同。

Particularly right now, you saw the 1.9 points that it benefited our OR in the first quarter. That will -- comparison will get a little tougher in the back half, so it may look different than '22 did. But certainly, fuel, I think, is something.

特別是現在，您看到了它在第一季度使我們的 OR 受益的 1.9 個百分點。這將 - 後半部分的比較會變得更加艱難，所以它看起來可能與 22 年有所不同。但可以肯定的是，燃料，我認為，是某種東西。

But then it's the main levers that you know that we have available to us. It's volume, price and productivity. And of course, volume, it depends a little bit what that is, but we also have pure cost control. So if volumes are something that are not our friend, and we're not able to get that leverage, we also have the ability to control costs through being very careful and diligent in our management.

但是，這是您知道我們可以使用的主要槓桿。它是數量、價格和生產力。當然，數量，這有點取決於那是什麼，但我們也有純粹的成本控制。因此，如果數量不是我們的朋友，並且我們無法獲得這種影響力，我們也有能力通過在我們的管理中非常謹慎和勤奮來控製成本。

And Jennifer, one last thing. What gives us a ton of confidence as we look into the year is how the network is operating right now. It's in a place where we can get the volume and we can squeeze out the excess cost.

還有詹妮弗，最後一件事。當我們展望這一年時，讓我們充滿信心的是網絡目前的運作方式。這是一個我們可以獲得數量並且可以擠出多餘成本的地方。

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Tom Wadewitz。

I wanted to ask you about the headcount level. I think you know the training pipeline for TE looks like it's larger -- but I think that the level of people that you've had that are trained on the system seems like it's been static for a while.

我想問你關於人數的問題。我想你知道 TE 的培訓管道看起來更大——但我認為你接受過系統培訓的人員水平似乎已經穩定了一段時間。

And so I'm just wondering what do you think about in terms of where you need to get for TE&Y that are trained in on the system? And I guess, in terms of attrition, has attrition been an ongoing problem has that stabilized? Just thinking about that headcount dynamic and then I guess, how that fits into how you would expect network performance to go from where we are?

所以我只是想知道您如何看待您需要在哪裡獲得在系統上接受過培訓的 TE&Y？我想，就減員而言，減員是否一直是一個持續存在的問題，是否已經穩定下來？只是考慮人數動態，然後我想，這如何符合您期望網絡性能從我們現在的位置發展的方式？

Yes. So Tom, we entered the year saying total headcount hires addition to the TE&Y would look kind of like what it did in 2022 predicated on our plan for volume. Volume's looking a little cloudy right now to us, certainly in the first quarter in the back half. And so of course, that hiring plan is being looked at and adjusted.

是的。所以湯姆，我們進入這一年時說，根據我們的數量計劃，TE&Y 的總僱員人數看起來有點像它在 2022 年所做的。現在對我們來說，成交量看起來有點多雲，當然是在後半段的第一季度。因此，當然，正在研究和調整該招聘計劃。

Net-net, in the second quarter, you're going to see us add to the active TE&Y headcount coming out of the training pipeline. The question really is what's the training pipeline look like for the rest of the year. Having over 1,000 in the pipeline is a very strong pipeline for us.

淨網，在第二季度，您將看到我們增加了來自培訓渠道的活躍 TE&Y 員工人數。真正的問題是今年剩餘時間的培訓管道是什麼樣的。擁有 1,000 多個管道對我們來說是一個非常強大的管道。

In terms of attrition, we tend to have about a 10% turnover in our TE&Y workforce. That really hasn't changed over the course of the last 5 years. We don't necessarily see it changing right now. So one of the adjustment factors is if we find ourselves getting out over our skis a little too far, attrition can help us suggest quickly.

就減員而言，我們的 TE&Y 員工流失率往往約為 10%。這在過去 5 年中確實沒有改變。我們不一定會立即看到它發生變化。因此，其中一個調整因素是，如果我們發現自己在滑雪板上走得太遠了，磨損可以幫助我們快速提出建議。

So it sounds like the, I guess, trained level goes up, but overall headcount kind of static as the training pipeline comes down is maybe the best way to look at it.

所以這聽起來像是，我猜，受過訓練的水平上升了，但隨著培訓管道的下降，整體人數有點靜態，這也許是最好的看待它的方式。

I think it really does depend on the volumes to a degree, (inaudible). And so certainly, as Lance said, the second quarter, I think you certainly see our total headcount is going up. It's going to be probably different than last year. First half, we've got the training pipeline loaded in the first half. And I think the question is going to be what does the second half look like.

我認為這確實在一定程度上取決於數量（聽不清）。當然，正如蘭斯所說，第二季度，我想你肯定會看到我們的總人數在增加。這可能與去年不同。上半場，我們已經在上半場加載了訓練管道。我認為問題是下半場會是什麼樣子。

Our next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Ken Hoexter。

Okay. Great. So just -- it looked like the operating service levels were flat -- you mentioned that a couple of times, I guess, Eric did, but velocity was -- really came down the past few weeks, I guess, during the quarter, and then more recently showed a pretty solid rebound, I guess, maybe the last week or 2.

好的。偉大的。所以 - 看起來運營服務水平持平 - 你提到過幾次，我猜，埃里克提到過，但速度 - 我想在過去幾週確實下降了，我想，在這個季度，而且然後最近顯示出相當強勁的反彈，我猜，也許是上週或 2。

Is there anything changing with the operating plan? Was this -- I don't know if Eric or Lance, you want to throw in some thoughts? Or was this just kind of the end of some of the weather stretches that you were talking about? Maybe just talk about how operations are doing now and what's changing.

運營計劃有什麼變化嗎？這是——我不知道是埃里克還是蘭斯，你想發表一些想法嗎？或者這只是您所談論的一些天氣延伸的結束？也許只是談論現在的運營情況以及正在發生的變化。

Yes, Ken. Thanks for the question. Your summary is exactly accurate. And it was towards the tail end of winter is really where we were about 3 weeks ago, having come out of that. And with all the work that we've done on the hiring side is amongst other actions, you're seeing the output of having 2 to 3 weeks without weather being that headwind.

是的，肯。謝謝你的問題。您的總結非常準確。大約 3 週前，我們已經擺脫了冬天，那是冬天的尾聲。通過我們在招聘方面所做的所有工作以及其他行動，您將看到 2 到 3 週的輸出，而天氣不會成為不利因素。

With weather largely, if not entirely, behind us winter, you should expect us, as our customers expect to maintain where we are. We've reinforced that 200 to 205 miles per day. It's what drives our TPC metrics to the level our customers expect.

由於天氣在很大程度上（如果不是完全）已經過去了冬天，您應該期待我們，因為我們的客戶希望保持我們的現狀。我們加強了每天 200 到 205 英里的距離。這是推動我們的 TPC 指標達到客戶期望水平的原因。

Next question is from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Wetherbee。

Maybe one quick follow-up on the headcount point. I guess I'm just curious, given what you guys have been able to do with some degree of service recovery, would you think about pausing sort of the hiring as you sort of reassess volumes depending on sort of how that plays out in the second half of the year? Curious about that.

也許對人數點進行快速跟進。我想我只是很好奇，考慮到你們在某種程度的服務恢復方面能夠做些什麼，你們會考慮暫停某種招聘，因為你們會根據第二次的結果重新評估數量半年？對此很好奇。

And then maybe on that point for Kenny. Just in terms of like what you're seeing in the month of April, it seems like we've seen March and April be a little bit softer across the board of transport, not necessarily Union Pacific specifically, a little bit softness there.

然後也許是肯尼的這一點。就像你在 4 月份看到的那樣，似乎我們已經看到 3 月和 4 月整個運輸行業都變得更加疲軟，不一定是聯合太平洋公司，那裡有點疲軟。

Curious what you're hearing from the customers. Has there been a bit of a spring lull here or maybe that picks up in the near term? Just kind of some thoughts there would be helpful.

好奇您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼。這裡是否有一點春天的平靜，或者可能在短期內回升？只是一些想法會有幫助。

Chris, this is Lance. I'll start and then turn it over to Kenny on your second question. So let's unpack the headcount question a little bit. We are in much better shape this time, this year versus same time last year. The hiring pipeline is full, but more importantly, we've been filling our classes everywhere we've been looking for people across the railroad for about the last 3 or 4 months.

克里斯，這是蘭斯。我將開始，然後將它轉交給 Kenny 來回答你的第二個問題。因此，讓我們稍微解釋一下人數問題。與去年同期相比，今年我們的狀態要好得多。招聘渠道已滿，但更重要的是，在過去的 3 或 4 個月裡，我們一直在尋找鐵路上的人，到處都在填補我們的班級。

That is very different than our experience last year where we found it very difficult in about six crew hubs all in the Northern region to be able to find, candidly, the workforce to be able to hire. So we've been much more aggressive in the back half of last year, ramping up things like hiring bonuses, finding creative, unique ways to create a workforce, a pool to hire from. And that's paying dividends right now. .

這與我們去年的經歷截然不同，去年我們發現很難在北部地區的大約六個船員中心坦率地找到能夠僱用的勞動力。因此，我們在去年下半年更加積極，增加了招聘獎金，尋找創造性、獨特的方式來創造勞動力，從中招聘人才。這就是現在的回報。 .

So you're exactly right in terms of as we look into the year, right now, we're starting to evaluate our original plan for hiring versus what volumes are doing and what the back half of the year balance is going to look like. Our longer-term guidance remains in place, and that is we fully expect to be volume variable and have ultimately our head count grow at less than our volume numbers are growing.

因此，就我們對這一年的展望而言，您是完全正確的，現在，我們開始評估我們最初的招聘計劃與數量正在做的事情以及今年下半年的平衡情況。我們的長期指導仍然存在，那就是我們完全希望數量可變，最終我們的員工人數增長將低於我們的數量增長。

But clearly, coming out of last year, we had to fix the ship and get our crew boards healthy, add a little excess -- not excess, add a little factor of safety to the crew board so that we could take events and recover quickly so that our service product was consistent.

但很明顯，從去年開始，我們必須修好這艘船，讓我們的船員板保持健康，增加一點多餘的——而不是多餘的，給船員板增加一點安全因素，這樣我們才能應對事件並迅速恢復使我們的服務產品保持一致。

And we're in that place right now. We're essentially there. We're solving some of the problem with borrow-outs. So hiring is going to have to replace them because they're expensive, and it's a burden on our employees to be borrowed out. But we are in much better shape looking into the rest of the year. Kenny?

我們現在就在那個地方。我們基本上在那裡。我們正在解決一些借貸問題。因此，招聘人員將不得不更換它們，因為它們很昂貴，而且我們的員工被借來是一種負擔。但展望今年剩餘時間，我們的狀況要好得多。肯尼？

Yes. Chris, so let's just start off. You look at our coal, we're expecting it to have a seasonal lull this time, the shoulder months that I mentioned. If you look at it last year, natural gas prices were much higher. So this is more of a normal look for domestic intermodal. We'll keep an eye on it. It's a very loose market right now. There's quite a bit of truck capacity that's out there. So we'll be watching that. And then also, last year, if you look at it, our grain business was still pretty strong at the time of year. Now we're seeing more global grain going to places where we exported last year.

是的。克里斯，讓我們開始吧。你看看我們的煤炭，我們預計這次它會出現季節性停滯，即我提到的平月。如果你看看去年，天然氣價格要高得多。所以這更像是國內聯運的正常外觀。我們會密切關注它。現在是一個非常寬鬆的市場。那裡有相當多的卡車容量。所以我們會關注的。然後，去年，如果你看一下，我們的穀物業務在一年中的那個時候仍然非常強勁。現在我們看到更多的全球穀物流向我們去年出口的地方。

Now having said all that, looking forward to the rest of the year, hey, we're still bullish about some of these markets that I mentioned, whether it's finished vehicles, the metal, rock that's in our construction area is one in the biofuels.

現在說了這麼多，期待今年剩下的時間，嘿，我們仍然看好我提到的這些市場中的一些，無論是成品車、我們建築領域的金屬、岩石還是生物燃料中的一個.

The next question is from the line of Ben Nolan from Stifel.

下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Ben Nolan。

Maybe, Kenny, if I could just follow up with that, we've been hearing a whole lot of noise about near-shoring, reshoring, specifically around Mexico. I was curious if you can maybe put a little color around if that's something you're seeing, if there's any notable business wins or anything specific to the moving of manufacturing back to North America that you're hearing from your customers.

也許，肯尼，如果我能跟進的話，我們已經聽到了很多關於近岸、回岸的聲音，特別是在墨西哥附近。我很好奇，如果你看到的是什麼，你是否可以在周圍塗上一點顏色，如果有任何顯著的商業勝利，或者你從客戶那裡聽到的關於將製造業遷回北美的任何具體情況。

We are seeing a little bit of that. We've seen production related to the auto OEMs. There was one pretty large highly public analysis that came out. And with that, you got to remember there's a lot of other inputs that move by rail, whether it's soda ash or the glass, the metals that comes in for the car. That's great for us. .

我們看到了一點點。我們已經看到與汽車原始設備製造商相關的生產。出現了一項相當大的高度公開的分析。有了這個，你必須記住還有很多其他輸入通過鐵路移動，無論是蘇打灰還是玻璃，汽車的金屬。這對我們來說很好。 .

Also, in our bulk commodities, on the ag side, we're expecting some new production and receivers out there. So yes, it is looking pretty encouraging, and this is the first time that we're seeing tangible things that we can point toward. So that's a positive for us. I won't go on and on. We enjoy a fabulous network there. I'll leave it at that.

此外，在我們的大宗商品中，在農業方面，我們期待有一些新的生產和接收者。所以是的，它看起來非常令人鼓舞，這是我們第一次看到我們可以指向的有形事物。所以這對我們來說是積極的。我不會繼續下去。我們在那裡享受著美妙的網絡。我會留在那裡。

Okay. And just to clarify, how should we think about the timing of an impact on that? I mean is this something that could happen near term? Or is this a big picture, longer-term kind of a dynamic?

好的。澄清一下，我們應該如何考慮對此產生影響的時間？我的意思是這是近期可能發生的事情嗎？或者這是一個大局，一個長期的動態？

This is a big picture longer term. I mean, you've got to get time for these locations to actually build up the physical infrastructure there in the plan .

從長遠來看，這是一個大局。我的意思是，你必須為這些地點騰出時間來實際建立計劃中的物理基礎設施。

And not -- but, Ben, it's wonderful to have new production facilities spot in the North American market. We will get our fair share. We have a wonderful franchise to and from Mexico. And any time industry shows up in the North American continent, it's good for us. It's good for railroads. .

不是——但是，本，在北美市場擁有新的生產設施真是太好了。我們將得到我們應得的份額。我們擁有往返墨西哥的絕佳特許經營權。任何時候工業出現在北美大陸，對我們都有好處。這對鐵路有好處。 .

The next is from the line of Justin Long with Stephens. .

下一個來自賈斯汀朗與斯蒂芬斯的關係。 .

I wanted to circle back to the full year guidance. Obviously, the start of the year has been more challenging than you anticipated. So in order to hit your outlook, do we need to see a meaningful positive inflection in the freight market?

我想回到全年指導。顯然，今年年初比您預期的更具挑戰性。因此，為了實現您的前景，我們是否需要看到貨運市場出現有意義的積極變化？

And if so, when does that need to occur? And then, Kenny, maybe just a clarification on intermodal. I think you said international volumes were up, but I was wondering if you could share the percent change you saw in both international and domestic intermodal.

如果是這樣，那需要什麼時候發生？然後，肯尼，也許只是對多式聯運的澄清。我想你說過國際貨運量增加了，但我想知道你是否可以分享你在國際和國內多式聯運中看到的百分比變化。

I'll take the first part of that question. Again, our guidance relative to volumes is exceeding industrial production. We came into the year, industrial production was forecast to be down about 0.5%. It's actually gotten a tad bit worse. It's now down about 0.7%. So that's not a huge -- to exceed. And yes, we started a little weaker, down 1.5 points here in the first quarter. But you just heard Kenny talk about kind of the different markets that are available to us and the fact that, as our service product is improving, we're putting more assets into play to move more carloads, and that's giving us greater flexibility to move those assets around to hit the markets that are available to us. .

我將回答這個問題的第一部分。同樣，我們對數量的指導超過了工業生產。進入這一年，工業生產預計將下降約 0.5%。它實際上變得更糟了一點。現在下跌約0.7%。所以這不是一個巨大的 - 超過。是的，我們開局有點弱，第一節在這裡下降了 1.5 分。但是你剛才聽到 Kenny 談到了我們可以進入的不同市場，事實上，隨著我們的服務產品不斷改進，我們正在投入更多的資產來運送更多的貨物，這給了我們更大的靈活性來運送這些資產可以進入我們可用的市場。 .

And so we feel quite confident that we will be able to reach that goal as it relates to volumes and the rest of our full year guidance, obviously, which we reiterated. .

因此，我們非常有信心，我們將能夠實現這一目標，因為它與數量和我們全年指導的其餘部分有關，顯然，我們重申了這一點。 .

Yes. I don't think I'm going to break out domestic international here. But what we saw, and I mentioned that just because you do have a more fluid intermodal network on the international side, we don't have a lot of the stack boxes on either end. More of those ocean carriers are moving in one, and we're seeing that. We put in products up against that. That's helping that with our grain facility down there on the Dallas side, with the KTN. They've hit their largest volume record in the first quarter. They just announced they're going to expand. And so we feel good about that, that we can move more of that inland.

是的。我不認為我會在這裡打破國內國際。但我們所看到的，我提到，僅僅因為你在國際方面確實有一個更流暢的多式聯運網絡，我們兩端都沒有很多堆疊箱。越來越多的遠洋承運商正在合而為一，我們正在看到這一點。我們推出了與之抗衡的產品。這有助於我們在達拉斯一側的穀物設施和 KTN。他們在第一季度創下了最大的銷量記錄。他們剛剛宣布他們要擴張。所以我們對此感覺很好，我們可以將更多的內陸地區轉移。

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Jordan Alliger。

Just sort of curious, I think other than volume, you talked about other productivity or cost. Other than fuel expense may be going down, what are some of the other cost levers that you could use to help drive OR to improve over the course of the year? Obviously, volume-dependent, would be things like purchase transport. Just trying to get a sense.

只是有點好奇，我認為除了數量之外，您還談到了其他生產力或成本。除了燃料費用可能會下降之外，您可以使用哪些其他成本槓桿來幫助推動 OR 在這一年中進行改進？顯然，取決於數量，就像購買運輸一樣。只是想了解一下。

It's a great question, Jordan. So as you think about that and the progress we're seeing right now, it's impacting nearly every one of our cost lines in a positive way. The big ones that we talk about is certainly starting with fleet size. In our prepared comments, I mentioned the fact that we're taking 100 locomotives and then putting them in storage, but they're in a storage state in which they can still be there quickly to gain volume.

這是一個很好的問題，喬丹。因此，當您考慮這一點以及我們現在看到的進展時，它幾乎以積極的方式影響了我們的每一條成本線。我們談論的大問題肯定是從車隊規模開始的。在我們準備好的評論中，我提到了這樣一個事實，即我們將 100 輛機車存放起來，但它們處於存放狀態，在這種狀態下它們仍然可以快速增加數量。

Next after that, it's all about crew utilization, right, which stretches everything from recrew rates to deadhead ways -- to how do we think about over time and making sure that we're being judicious with the use of over time. From there, we certainly do, even though you mentioned that we do focus on our fuel consumption.

在那之後，一切都與船員利用率有關，對吧，它涵蓋了從再乘員率到死機方式的一切——到我們如何考慮隨著時間的推移，並確保我們在使用隨著時間的推移時是明智的。從那裡開始，我們當然會這樣做，即使您提到我們確實關注我們的油耗。

And I'm really encouraged actually by the first quarter because if you look at January, we came out very strong. February was kind of okay, and March was certainly weak, which means with weather behind us, there's no reason that we shouldn't snap right back to that great progress that we saw in January. So it's those others, but I've listed the biggest ones.

事實上，第一季度我真的很受鼓舞，因為如果你看看一月份，我們表現非常強勁。 2 月還好，3 月肯定疲軟，這意味著天氣已經過去，我們沒有理由不立即回到 1 月看到的巨大進步。所以是其他那些，但我列出了最大的那些。

Our next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Seidl 和 TD Cowen。

Two quick things. Kenny, I think you said there were some pricing pressures in a few of your industries. I mean I understand intermodal. Would love to hear what else is being pressured out there. And also in terms of the West Coast port labor situation, how much freight do you think got diverted?

兩件快事。肯尼，我想你說過你的一些行業存在定價壓力。我的意思是我了解多式聯運。很想听聽那裡還有什麼壓力。還有關於西海岸港口的勞動力情況，您認為有多少貨物被轉移了？

And if we get a resolution here, hopefully in the near term, do you think it would come back quickly or it would take some time?

如果我們在這裡得到解決，希望在短期內，你認為它會很快恢復還是需要一些時間？

Yes. So before I talk about domestic intermodal, which I think is your question, I just want to reiterate that we've got a broad diverse set of customers and markets that we get the price. And we've said that publicly, call it, approximately roughly half of that business, we get to touch every year outside of just one particular market. Now there is a lag impact to that. But the sales leaders, the commercial teams have done a really fabulous job going out articulating, hey, we're spending quite a bit on CapEx.

是的。因此，在我談論國內聯運之前，我想這是你的問題，我只想重申，我們有廣泛多樣的客戶和市場，我們得到了價格。我們已經公開說過，大約一半的業務，我們每年都會接觸到一個特定市場之外的地方。現在對此有滯後影響。但是銷售負責人，商業團隊在表達方面做得非常出色，嘿，我們在資本支出上花了很多錢。

We're putting quite a few resources out there. They understand what's taken place in the industry with our business on the labor side and the labor negotiations. And candidly, they are experiencing the same inflationary pressure. So you've got that piece.

我們在那裡投入了相當多的資源。他們了解我們在勞資方面的業務和勞資談判在行業中發生了什麼。坦率地說，他們正經歷著同樣的通脹壓力。所以你有那件作品。

Now talking about domestic intermodal, yes, domestic intermodal has been a pretty loose market, quite a bit of truck capacity that's there. We're seeing it in our bids and RFPs. We've got mechanisms that are in place for our suite of intermodal customers to go out there and compete and win business based on their own strengths and capabilities, which give us confidence.

現在談論國內多式聯運，是的，國內多式聯運一直是一個相當寬鬆的市場，那裡有相當多的卡車運力。我們在投標和 RFP 中看到了這一點。我們已經為我們的多式聯運客戶套件建立了機制，可以根據自己的優勢和能力走出去競爭並贏得業務，這給了我們信心。

And the other part of that is the fact that as the market tightens up, we can quickly capture that upside.

另一部分是隨著市場收緊，我們可以迅速抓住這一優勢。

And Kenny, Jason's last question about West Coast ports and ILW.

肯尼，傑森關於西海岸港口和 ILW 的最後一個問題。

Yes. We've been in close contact with the West Coast ports, and they believe that there should be an agreement here near term. I'll tell you it's hard to quantify what's been diverted away because of some of these labor challenges. I'll tell you when we look at the order book going out to, I'll call it, the West Coast ports, it looks like the negative delta that we saw year-over-year is becoming less and less.

是的。我們一直在與西海岸港口保持密切聯繫，他們認為近期應該會在這里達成協議。我會告訴你，由於其中一些勞動力挑戰，很難量化被轉移的東西。我會告訴你，當我們查看訂單簿時，我稱之為西海岸港口，看起來我們看到的同比負增量越來越少。

That's good. And you think that there was an agreement, again, knock on wood, because everyone wants that, that you would receive it back quickly or would come back over time?

那挺好的。你認為有一個協議，再次敲木頭，因為每個人都希望如此，你會很快收到它還是會隨著時間的推移回來？

I think that's just -- I can't be that precise, Jason. We could be positive about it, but to be precise, probably just wouldn't be a good idea.

我認為這只是 - 我不能那麼準確，傑森。我們可以對此持肯定態度，但準確地說，這可能不是一個好主意。

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Kenny, just a follow-up on the pricing reset. Is that kind of going as is expected? Do you still have a little bit more of a lag impact because volumes may be a little bit weaker than you had thought? So I guess is that going to accelerate here? And same sort of question with price/mix. Is that probably the worst you'd expect in the near term here as you look at the different end markets as they're developing?

肯尼，只是定價重置的後續行動。這種情況是否符合預期？你是否還有更多的滯後影響，因為成交量可能比你想像的要弱一些？所以我想這會在這裡加速嗎？以及價格/組合的同類問題。當您觀察正在發展的不同終端市場時，這可能是您近期預期的最糟糕情況嗎？

Yes. Certainly, the way we calculate price volume increasing and improving helps us. So I'll say that also because it is April and not December. We have time to get more of that volume in the play as we move throughout the year. .

是的。當然，我們計算價格量增加和改善的方式對我們有幫助。所以我這麼說也是因為現在是四月而不是十二月。隨著我們全年的移動，我們有時間在比賽中獲得更多的數量。 .

I would not say that there are some markets that are harder to capture price in other than those areas where we have mechanisms in place align with domestic intermodal. We've been very disciplined in our approach to take price. And in some cases, we've all taken some risk there to make sure that we're pricing towards the market.

我不會說有些市場比我們擁有與國內多式聯運保持一致的機制的那些地區更難獲取價格。我們在定價方面一直非常有紀律。在某些情況下，我們都在那裡承擔了一些風險，以確保我們的定價符合市場。

And Kenny, the same -- what you said about domestic Intermodal to a lesser degree is truly in coal where you've got natural gas can be a driver of some pricing.

和肯尼一樣——你所說的國內多式聯運在較小程度上確實是在煤炭中，在那裡你有天然氣可以成為一些定價的驅動因素。

Absolutely. We'll be watching natural gas pretty closely.

絕對地。我們將密切關注天然氣。

Yes. And to the next part of your question, Brian, coming into the year, our view is that mix would likely be negative throughout the year primarily around the fact that we were expecting to see more growth on the intermodal side.

是的。對於你問題的下一部分，布賴恩，進入今年，我們的觀點是，全年的組合可能是負面的，主要是因為我們預計多式聯運方面會出現更多增長。

Obviously, that's changed a bit. And so looking to the second quarter at least, we're probably expecting a bit of a positive mix. Beyond that, I think it's too soon to say. But I do think that's something that is different as we sit here today than when we came and talked to you in January.

顯然，情況發生了一些變化。因此，至少展望第二季度，我們可能會期待一些積極的組合。除此之外，我認為現在說還為時過早。但我確實認為，我們今天坐在這裡與我們在 1 月份來與你們交談時有所不同。

Just a quick follow-up for Lance on the regulatory and legislative side. A lot of noise coming out of D.C., some of the safety things you mentioned earlier and some of the stats on UP specifically. But what are you most focused on when it comes to the different topics that are being discussed down there. We tend to focus on, on train lengths. It's obviously an FRA Safety Advisory recently. But I just wanted to hear what was important and what you thought we should focus on when it comes to the various topics being discussed after the safety issues that we've seen in the industry over the last few months?

只是對 Lance 在監管和立法方面的快速跟進。很多噪音來自 D.C.，你之前提到的一些安全問題以及 UP 上的一些統計數據。但是，當涉及到那裡正在討論的不同主題時，您最關注的是什麼。我們傾向於關注火車的長度。這顯然是 FRA 最近的安全諮詢。但我只是想听聽在過去幾個月我們在行業中看到的安全問題之後討論的各種主題時，什麼是重要的，你認為我們應該關注什麼？

Yes, Brian. That's a great question. So in engaging the legislators in D.C., we help them understand what would actually move the ball in terms of safety, where regulatory effort would make a difference and where it wouldn't.

是的，布萊恩。這是一個很好的問題。因此，在與 D.C. 的立法者接觸時，我們幫助他們了解在安全方面實際會發生什麼變化，監管工作會在哪些方面產生影響，哪些不會。

To your point, train length wouldn't -- statistically, on UP, since 2019, train length is up something like 20% in our mainline and siding derailments are down 26%. So there's zero corollary between train length and derailments. .

就您的觀點而言，列車長度不會——從統計數據來看，自 2019 年以來，我們主線的列車長度增加了大約 20%，而側線脫軌率下降了 26%。所以火車長度和脫軌之間的推論為零。 .

But there are other things that they can help with. We're taking action right now on wayside detection That's a place where the FRA can step in. Things that we emphasize that really don't have a corollary impact, another one is crew size and whether conductors are redeployed to the ground. That has no impact on safety around the world empirically. So we just broadly try to help them understand that and stay deeply engaged, Brian. This is a deep engagement all the time right now.

但還有其他事情他們可以提供幫助。我們現在正在對路邊檢測採取行動 這是 FRA 可以介入的地方。我們強調的事情確實沒有必然的影響，另一個是船員人數以及是否將指揮員重新部署到地面。根據經驗，這對世界各地的安全沒有影響。所以我們只是廣泛地嘗試幫助他們理解這一點並保持深度參與，布賴恩。現在一直都是深度參與。

The next question is from the line of Allison Poliniak with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Allison Poliniak。

I just want to ask on the new business. I guess, first, is there any way, I know there's a lot of moving price with volumes, to maybe get quantify or help us understand the contribution of the new business wins in volumes. And then second, as part of that, just in terms of the new business pipeline, any notable trends in sort of the conversion that you're seeing in terms of bringing on new business onto the rail?

我只想問一下新業務。我想，首先，有沒有什麼辦法，我知道價格有很多變動，可以量化或幫助我們了解新業務在數量上的貢獻。其次，作為其中的一部分，就新業務管道而言，您在將新業務引入鐵路方面看到的任何顯著的轉換趨勢？

Yes. It's pretty broad because, obviously, it's in all 3 of our business teams, meaning if you look at it, biofuels, renewable diesel for us is an emerging market. Been very encouraged by our ability to land new customers, new production sites to move out of the Midwest going into the west, and those are attractive margins to us on the industrial side.

是的。它非常廣泛，因為很明顯，它在我們所有 3 個業務團隊中，這意味著如果你看一下，生物燃料、可再生柴油對我們來說是一個新興市場。我們有能力吸引新客戶，新生產基地從中西部轉移到西部，這讓我們感到非常鼓舞，這些對我們在工業方面來說是有吸引力的利潤率。

The same thing is true as we look at our metals business and some of the minerals business tied to that. Same as with rock. Those are areas that are positive, and they have structural increases related to population growth down in Texas, Louisiana and the Gulf.

當我們審視我們的金屬業務以及與之相關的一些礦產業務時，情況也是如此。和搖滾一樣。這些都是積極的領域，它們的結構性增長與德克薩斯州、路易斯安那州和海灣地區的人口增長下降有關。

And so those are great. And then you are aware -- you are aware, Allison, of some of the new recent wins in our intermodal sector. And again, we feel really blast that we've got a fleet of highly capable customers that can go out and grow business over the road, and it complements very nicely our UMP our UMAX and E&P products that we have in the marketplace.

所以這些都很棒。然後你就會知道 - 艾莉森，你知道我們聯運部門最近取得的一些新勝利。再一次，我們感到非常興奮，因為我們擁有一群能力很強的客戶，他們可以走出去並在路上發展業務，它很好地補充了我們的 UMP 我們在市場上擁有的 UMAX 和 E&P 產品。

And just any color on the conversion trends of the new business opportunities out there?

新商機的轉換趨勢有什麼顏色嗎？

We see the pipeline is still there. The thing that we're keeping an eye on is are they actually moving the forecasted amount that they initially told us. So no concerns with the pipeline, just a little bit of concern with making sure the volume that they committed to is still there.

我們看到管道仍然存在。我們一直在關注的是，他們是否真的在移動他們最初告訴我們的預測數量。所以不用擔心管道，只是有點擔心確保他們承諾的數量仍然存在。

Our next question is from the line of Amit Mehrotra with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Amit Mehrotra。

Jennifer, are earnings going to be up as you move from 1Q to 2Q? Because there's a big fuel benefit in the EPS line in 1Q, and we calculate it like $0.25 or something like that. And a lot of that is going away because of the lag on fuel.

詹妮弗，從第一季度到第二季度，您的收益會增加嗎？因為 1Q 的 EPS 線有很大的燃料收益，我們計算它為 0.25 美元或類似的東西。由於燃料滯後，其中很多正在消失。

And so you're starting kind of from a hole to build back on as you move from 1Q to 2Q. I know there's weather, but I'm just trying to understand if the cadence of earnings growth from 1Q can actually grow in 2Q because of that operating income impact from fuel.

因此，當你從 1Q 移動到 2Q 時，你從一個洞開始重新構建。我知道有天氣，但我只是想了解由於燃料對營業收入的影響，第一季度的盈利增長節奏是否真的可以在第二季度增長。

And then just related to that, because volume seems to be the fulcrum for all of this, the average weekly volume in the quarter was 152,000 7-day carloadings. And I think last week, you did under that, and the weather is a lot better.

然後與此相關，因為體積似乎是所有這一切的支點，本季度的平均每週體積為 152,000 7 天裝車。而且我想上週，你做了那個，天氣好多了。

And so I guess the question really is -- is that like when are we going to see -- if weather was a big problem in the quarter, you exited lower than you average for the quarter. When are we actually going to see some of the volumes show up in the weekly carloads?

所以我想真正的問題是——就像我們什麼時候會看到——如果天氣是本季度的一個大問題，你的退出低於本季度的平均水平。我們什麼時候才能真正看到一些體積出現在每週的載貨量中？

Well, so let's start off on the fuel piece. And we agree with your math on the $0.25 for the first quarter. That's exactly right. You have to think about fuel in 2 pieces, Amit. You have to think about the fuel surcharge piece and then the expense piece. .

好吧，讓我們從燃料片開始吧。我們同意您對第一季度 0.25 美元的計算。這是完全正確的。阿米特，你必須考慮兩塊燃料。您必須考慮燃油附加費部分，然後再考慮費用部分。 .

And while in the first quarter, the fuel surcharge piece was a positive, as we look at what our current prices are for fill right now, call it $3 a gallon when we paid $4 a gallon a year ago, that's going to flip on us. And so that is going to have a different dynamic, but our fuel expense is going to be less as well. And so you really have to think about it in those 2 parts and separate that out, I would say, in the analysis.

雖然在第一季度，燃油附加費是積極的，當我們看看我們目前的加油價格時，我們一年前支付每加侖 4 美元時稱其為每加侖 3 美元，這將對我們產生影響.所以這將有不同的動力，但我們的燃料費用也會減少。因此，您真的必須在這兩個部分中考慮它，並將其分開，我會說，在分析中。

The other thing I want to remind everybody about 2Q of last year was we did have an $0.18 benefit from a land sale, Illinois Tollway, and that was in our results. And then we also had $35 million extra in some casualty expenses. So that goes away. So you've got some puts and takes there, but I just want to make sure everybody is thinking of as you're putting that together. Our goal is going to be to continue to drive as much volume as we can across the network, do it as efficiently as we can and improve the service product. And the output of that will be the output of that. I'm not going to give you specific earnings guidance on that.

關於去年第二季度，我想提醒大家的另一件事是，我們確實從 Illinois Tollway 的土地出售中獲得了 0.18 美元的收益，這已經體現在我們的業績中。然後我們還有 3500 萬美元的額外傷亡費用。所以那消失了。所以你有一些投入和投入，但我只是想確保每個人都在考慮你把它們放在一起。我們的目標是繼續推動整個網絡盡可能多的流量，盡可能高效地完成並改進服務產品。那個的輸出將是那個的輸出。我不會就此給你具體的收益指導。

And then to your other question about volumes, I think you need to factor in the Easter holiday. That does have an impact on our volumes. And so while, yes, weather was clearing, we did have a holiday impact there. And I think, again, we're putting the assets into place, and we're going to be moving the volumes that are available to us.

然後是關於銷量的其他問題，我認為你需要考慮復活節假期。這確實對我們的銷量產生了影響。因此，是的，雖然天氣晴朗，但我們確實對那裡的假期產生了影響。而且我認為，我們再次將資產放到位，我們將轉移我們可用的數量。

Yes. I'm confident what we're talking about in reported numbers this week and beyond.

是的。我相信我們在本週及以後的報告數字中談論的內容。

Okay. That's great. And just related to that, Kenny, I don't know if you have a view on intermodal yields. I know fuel -- there's a lot of noise in intermodal yields in fuel. But are we holding line on intermodal yields ex fuel? And is that the expectation kind of over the next few quarters?

好的。那太棒了。與此相關的是，肯尼，我不知道你是否對多式聯運收益率有看法。我知道燃料——燃料的多式聯運產量有很多噪音。但我們是否對不包括燃料的多式聯運收益率持保留態度？這是對接下來幾個季度的期望嗎？

Yes. And I said this, Amit, we feel really good about the mechanisms we have in place for our customers to go out there and compete and win and retain business based on their capabilities and their strengths. And I also feel good about, again, as the markets move that we'll be able to move more real time with it. And so that's a positive for us.

是的。我這麼說，阿米特，我們對我們為客戶提供的機制感到非常滿意，這些機制可以讓我們的客戶走出去，根據他們的能力和優勢競爭、贏得和保留業務。而且我也感覺很好，再次，隨著市場的移動，我們將能夠更實時地移動它。所以這對我們來說是積極的。

Our next question is from the line of Jon Chappell with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Jon Chappell。

Eric, I want to go back to the productivity, which I seem to go back to every quarter. But just as it relates to getting to these full year targets, one of your peers has kind of laid out what a fluid network could mean from a cost perspective. So is there any way for you to quantify what you think the productivity improvements could contribute in the final 3 quarters of '23?

埃里克，我想回到生產力上，我似乎每個季度都會回到生產力上。但正如與實現這些全年目標相關的那樣，您的一位同行已經從成本角度闡述了流動網絡可能意味著什麼。那麼，您有什麼方法可以量化您認為生產力提高在 23 世紀最後 3 個季度中可能做出的貢獻嗎？

And also any way for us to kind of understand the timing? You're still digging out of the weather mostly. They're still taking people out of training. Is this like 90% a second half productivity improvement type story? Or can you start to get some significant improvement in 2Q?

還有什麼方法可以讓我們了解時間安排？你大部分時間仍在挖掘天氣。他們仍在讓人們停止訓練。這像是 90% 的下半年生產力改進類型的故事嗎？或者你能在 2Q 開始得到一些顯著的改善嗎？

Jon, thank you for the question. Obviously, we won't guide you to the specifics on the timing of the productivity. What I would reinforce is that based on the performance that we see on the railroad right now, it's bringing me and others greater and greater confidence that we'll see that productivity continue to grow throughout the rest of the year.

喬恩，謝謝你的提問。顯然，我們不會指導您了解生產力時間的具體細節。我要強調的是，根據我們目前在鐵路上看到的表現，它讓我和其他人越來越有信心，我們將看到生產力在今年餘下時間繼續增長。

To say -- as you look into the second quarter, the headwind of winter behind us and the forecast of being able to grow the volume, that's what's going to drive that. Beyond that, I'm not going to guide to it. We're just all focused on making sure that we drive that productivity safely.

可以說——當你回顧第二季度時，我們身後的冬天的逆風以及能夠增加銷量的預測，這就是推動它的因素。除此之外，我不會指導它。我們只是專注於確保我們安全地提高生產力。

Any just broad range of numbers? I mean, if we go back to the Investor Day and the starting point there, any way to kind of parse that out even in a broad range?

任何範圍廣泛的數字？我的意思是，如果我們回到投資者日和那裡的起點，有什麼方法可以在廣泛的範圍內分析出來嗎？

No. Jon, I think that would be unwise for us to do that. We are not going to try to pace our productivity improvement. And so we want to do that as fast as we can, as safely as we can while providing a really good service product so that we can ultimately drive greater volumes across the network. That's the real leverage, and it fuels the productivity, quite frankly.

不，喬恩，我認為我們這樣做是不明智的。我們不會試圖加快我們生產力提高的步伐。因此，我們希望盡可能快、盡可能安全地做到這一點，同時提供真正優質的服務產品，以便我們最終能夠在整個網絡中推動更大的流量。這才是真正的槓桿作用，坦率地說，它可以提高生產力。

Yes. Jon, this is Lance. So just putting a bow on that. Our expectation is, in Q2 with a fluid network, we really squeeze out a bunch of the excess costs created by kind of weather and variability from those events. And then we start stretching our legs beyond Q2 to continue to recover some of the productivity and, ultimately, all of the productivity that we forewent in 2022 and then start growing from there.

是的。喬恩，這是蘭斯。所以只是鞠躬。我們的期望是，在具有流動網絡的第二季度，我們真的會擠出一些因天氣和這些事件的變化而產生的超額成本。然後我們開始在第二季度之後繼續恢復部分生產力，並最終恢復我們在 2022 年放棄的所有生產力，然後從那裡開始增長。

We've got a fair amount of inflation that's in front of us that we got to offset this year and going into next year. So we're going to be fighting that battle through the whole year as well.

我們面前有相當多的通貨膨脹，我們必須在今年和明年抵消這些通貨膨脹。因此，我們也將全年都在打這場仗。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Ravi Shanker 與摩根士丹利的合作。

So two very quick follow-ups here. One is I know mix was a headwind in the first quarter. But can you confirm that dollar price was above dollar inflation in the first quarter? And kind of if not, kind of how does that trajectory change versus the year?

所以這裡有兩個非常快速的跟進。一個是我知道混合在第一季度是一個逆風。但你能確認美元價格在第一季度高於美元通脹嗎？如果不是，那麼這種軌跡與年份相比有何變化？

And second, kind of if you're going to have a pretty kind of significant inflection in volumes currently are running down 2.5% year-to-date and you could get to better than down 0.7% for your full year guide, what macro assumption does that involve for the second half of the year? Are you counting on an improvement in macro conditions and/or a restock to get you there?

其次，如果你的銷量會出現相當大的變化，目前今年迄今下降了 2.5%，而你的全年指南可能會比下降 0.7% 更好，那麼宏觀假設是什麼這是否涉及下半年？您是否指望宏觀條件的改善和/或補貨來實現目標？

I'll hit the first part of your question. And yes, our pricing gains in the first quarter did exceed our inflation. Kenny?

我會回答你問題的第一部分。是的，我們第一季度的定價收益確實超過了我們的通貨膨脹率。肯尼？

Just a second. In terms of macro assumptions, we do not have planned in a recession, right? So a recession would be a problem for us. Absent that, what we need is markets to continue to just behave reasonably, i.e., we need consumers to continue to be healthy, spend some. They don't have to go crazy. They just need to not pull in their horns. And we need the industrial economy to continue to do what it's doing. And we need inventory and this whole destocking to calm down after the first quarter, first half. All of those, I think, are pretty reasonable expectations. The wild card would be a recession.

等一下。就宏觀假設而言，我們沒有計劃經濟衰退，對吧？因此，經濟衰退對我們來說將是一個問題。否則，我們需要的是市場繼續合理運行，即我們需要消費者繼續保持健康，多花錢。他們不必發瘋。他們只需要不拉他們的角。我們需要工業經濟繼續做它正在做的事情。我們需要庫存和整個去庫存在第一季度、上半年之後平靜下來。我認為，所有這些都是非常合理的期望。外卡將是經濟衰退。

Our next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brandon Oglenski。

My one question for Lance or Eric, your trip plan compliance on manifest remains in like the low 60% level. And I know there's definitional issues, but there are carriers out there delivering much higher than that. So I wonder -- we've talked a lot about service products on this call today. What's the right target for trip plan compliance? And what are the steps to get there?

我有一個問題要問蘭斯或埃里克，你的清單上的旅行計劃合規性仍然保持在 60% 的低水平。而且我知道存在定義問題，但那裡的運營商提供的服務遠高於此。所以我想知道——我們今天在這個電話會議上談了很多關於服務產品的問題。旅行計劃合規性的正確目標是什麼？到達那裡的步驟是什麼？

Yes. So they're focusing on the manifest and autos. When that starts with a 7, so right, 70%, 75%, that's in a place where our customers are giving us feedback that says that we are meeting their expectations.

是的。所以他們專注於清單和汽車。當它以 7 開頭時，那麼正確，70%、75%，這是我們的客戶向我們提供反饋的地方，表明我們正在滿足他們的期望。

Now as far as steps to get there, you're going to always have manifest and auto lag the intermodal TPC, and it's simply because the cycle time of those cars is longer. It's a conversation we were just having the last 2 weeks to make sure that we are doing those actions.

現在就到達那裡的步驟而言，您將始終擁有聯運 TPC 的清單和自動滯後，這僅僅是因為這些汽車的循環時間更長。這是我們過去 2 周剛剛進行的對話，以確保我們正在採取這些行動。

So when you look at the velocity picking up, that's a tailwind to it. When you look at our use discounts, which means are we making connections in the terminals to the right trains, that's up. Just those 2 things alone drive TPC in the right direction. And we're driving that as fast as we possibly can because we want to send the message to our customers that we understand first quarter was difficult, but we're in a better place now and it's for their benefit in ours.

所以當你看到速度加快時，這是順風。當您查看我們的使用折扣時，這意味著我們是否在航站樓連接了正確的火車，就這樣了。僅僅這兩件事就可以推動 TPC 朝著正確的方向發展。我們正在盡可能快地推動這一進程，因為我們想向我們的客戶傳達我們理解第一季度很困難的信息，但我們現在處於一個更好的位置，這對他們來說是為了我們的利益。

The next question is from the line of Walter Spracklin with RBC.

下一個問題來自 Walter Spracklin with RBC。

I just want to come back to service levels and the regulatory spotlight, clearly, the whole industry Union Pacific included, is under a bit of a spotlight from the regulator for the service issues. And when I look back historically, whenever a railroad is needed to promptly address the service issue, operating metrics almost always deteriorate rather than improve.

我只想回到服務水平和監管聚光燈，顯然，包括整個行業聯合太平洋在內，由於服務問題而受到監管機構的關注。當我回顧歷史時，每當需要鐵路來及時解決服務問題時，運營指標幾乎總是惡化而不是改善。

So I don't know if this is best for Jennifer, but I want to come back to that question about are you expecting an OR improvement as early as Q2 based on what you're seeing now. I know you said you saw some pretty good exit trends in Q1, weather is behind you, Easter was more of a -- it was more of a numbers event or a year-over-year numbers event as opposed to anything fundamental.

所以我不知道這對 Jennifer 是否最好，但我想回到這個問題，你是否期望根據你現在看到的情況，最早在第二季度進行 OR 改進。我知道你說過你在第一季度看到了一些非常好的退出趨勢，天氣已經過去了，復活節更像是一個數字事件或同比數字事件，而不是任何基本面事件。

So would you see yourself as on track to achieve Q2 improvement despite your efforts to address service and that, that Q2 improvement should continue through the rest of the year?

那麼，儘管您努力解決服務問題，您是否認為自己有望實現第二季度的改進，並且第二季度的改進應該在今年餘下的時間裡繼續進行？

Yes, Walter. I'm going to resist the temptation to give you 2Q guidance and stick with the full year guidance. But you all can do the math. I mean we have to make improvement quickly, and it's got to be sequential. And at some point, obviously, that has to be year-over-year, and that is our focus. And that is our intent, and we're very confident that we will do that.

是的，沃爾特。我將抵制為您提供 2Q 指導並堅持全年指導的誘惑。但是你們都可以算算。我的意思是我們必須迅速做出改進，而且必須是連續的。顯然，在某些時候，這必須是同比增長，這是我們的重點。這就是我們的意圖，我們非常有信心我們會做到這一點。

Okay. And if -- and barring that then perhaps year-over-year is at risk if you can't see that quickly as the quick turnaround that you're mentioning Jennifer. Is that fair?

好的。如果 - 並且除非你不能看到你提到詹妮弗的快速轉變那麼快，那麼也許年復一年有風險。這公平嗎？

The longer you go into the year with that improvement, it gets more difficult. Yes, I will agree with that.

隨著這種改進進入一年的時間越長，它就會變得更加困難。是的，我同意這一點。

Our next question is from the line of Bascome Majors with Susquehanna.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bascome Majors 與 Susquehanna 的合作。

Can you talk a little bit about how your relationships and engagement with the STB has evolved over the last few months? And any expectations of how they'll extend the service period -- sorry, the service oversight period when it expires in a few weeks here?

您能否談談過去幾個月您與 STB 的關係和參與情況如何演變？以及對他們將如何延長服務期的任何期望——抱歉，服務監督期將在幾週後到期？

And maybe walking that forward next 12 to 18 months, where do you think their eyes will be most focused? And how do you engage with them as the CPTC deal stops sucking up oxygen in that room?

也許在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內向前推進，您認為他們的目光最集中在哪裡？當 CPTC 交易停止在那個房間裡吸氧時，你如何與他們接觸？

Thank you for the question, Bascome. So we are deeply engaged at the STB. There is an executive level interaction with an STB either staff or member virtually every day, certainly several a week. What is helping in those conversations right now is, demonstrably, the service product is better and customers' temperatures are down.

謝謝你的問題，巴斯科姆。因此，我們深入參與了 STB。與 STB 的工作人員或成員幾乎每天都有執行級別的交互，當然每周有幾次。顯然，現在對這些對話有幫助的是，服務產品更好，客戶的情緒也下降了。

The other thing, if you recall, late last year, there was a hearing at the STB that focused on Union Pacific and our use of embargoes. And we, to the STB and to our customers, more importantly, made the commitment that we're going to both look at how we use embargoes and have an eye towards essentially getting back to a place where they're rare.

另一件事，如果你還記得的話，去年年底，STB 舉行了一次聽證會，重點是聯合太平洋公司和我們對禁運的使用。更重要的是，我們對 STB 和我們的客戶做出了承諾，即我們將研究我們如何使用禁運，並著眼於從本質上回到禁運很少見的地方。

Year-to-date, this year, 65% reduction in the use in the last 2 months, 75% reduction as the railroad is getting better. And I have all the confidence in the world that kind of progress is going to continue.

今年迄今為止，過去兩個月的使用量減少了 65%，隨著鐵路狀況的好轉，減少了 75%。我對世界充滿信心，這種進步將繼續下去。

So what I expect at this point, the STB is a bit of a wildcard. I won't predict what they do in May as regards the service reporting period. But I know the overall industry and certainly Union Pacific is in a place where our service product is not prompting more scrutiny and significant temperature coming into the STB from customers. And that's their -- that's their purview. That's what they're built for, is to react to customer feedback, and that's what they've done in 2022.

所以我在這一點上期望的是，機頂盒有點通配符。關於服務報告期，我不會預測他們在 5 月份會做什麼。但我知道整個行業，當然聯合太平洋公司所處的位置，我們的服務產品不會促使客戶對機頂盒進行更多審查和顯著溫度。那是他們的——那是他們的職權範圍。這就是他們的目標，是對客戶反饋做出反應，這就是他們在 2022 年所做的。

So the fact that if we can get customers to a place where they're satisfied with the service product and in good dialogue with us on it, that takes a lot of the pressure out the STB.

因此，如果我們能讓客戶到達他們對服務產品感到滿意並與我們就此進行良好對話的地方，那麼 STB 就會減輕很多壓力。

And maybe the longer-term part of that question over the next 12 to 18 months, where do you think they will focus most? And how do you make sure that your shareholders and customers' interest are protected there?

也許在接下來的 12 到 18 個月內，該問題的長期部分是，您認為他們最關注哪裡？您如何確保您的股東和客戶的利益在那裡得到保護？

Yes, Bascome. So what we keep an eye on are -- is the fulsome docket that they've got in front of them, things like final offer rate review versus this alternative dispute resolution mechanism, forced open access, the use of revenue adequacy as a rate-setting mechanism, those are things that we're working hard with the STB for them to understand what the ramifications of some of those decision points are, what is and is not justifiable by data and fact.

是的，巴斯科姆。因此，我們關注的是 - 他們面前的繁瑣案卷，例如最終報價率審查與這種替代性爭議解決機制，強制開放獲取，使用收入充足率作為利率 -設置機制，這些是我們正在與 STB 一起努力工作的事情，以便他們了解其中一些決策點的後果是什麼，數據和事實證明什麼是合理的，什麼是不合理的。

And then, of course, we engage fulsomely with them to help make sure the regulation coming out of the STB makes sense and accomplishes what they're trying to accomplish, which is very good service product and growth in the rail industry. .

然後，當然，我們與他們進行了充分的接觸，以幫助確保來自 STB 的監管是有意義的，並實現他們正在努力實現的目標，這是非常好的服務產品和鐵路行業的增長。 .

Next question is from the line of Ariel Rosa with Credit Suisse. .

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Ariel Rosa。 .

Great. So really quickly, I was wondering what was the real estate transaction. Maybe you could give a bit of color on that. I don't think I saw it. And then, Lance, as you approach perhaps the final months, perhaps quarters of your time as CEO at UP, I was hoping you could just kind of take a bigger picture, step back and reflect on what are the accomplishments you're most proud of and how you think about where you'd like to see the future of the railroad go from here?

偉大的。很快，我想知道房地產交易是什麼。也許你可以給它一些顏色。我不認為我看到了。然後，蘭斯，當你接近最後幾個月，也許是你在 UP 首席執行官的四分之一時間時，我希望你能放眼大局，退後一步，反思一下你最引以為豪的成就是什麼的以及你如何看待你希望看到鐵路的未來從這裡走向何方？

And in particular, I was hoping you could touch on your thoughts on the ability of UP to grow volume and take share over the next 5 or 10 years.

特別是，我希望你能談一談你對 UP 在未來 5 年或 10 年內增加銷量和占有份額的能力的看法。

Yes. In terms of the real estate transaction, Ari, it was a fiber optics deal.

是的。就房地產交易而言，Ari，這是一項光纖交易。

And Ari, thank you very much for the question and the opportunity to reflect just a moment. If I look back over the last 8 years now working on year 9, the thing, the things I'm most proud of is what we as a team have accomplished in terms of moving our transportation plan to a PSR model, doing that over the course of the last 4 years and doing it in a way where our customers weren't damaged by the transition, they were benefited from it. I think we've done stupendous work on sustainability. As I mentioned in my opening comments, we've done terrific work on diversity, equity and inclusion.

阿里，非常感謝你提出這個問題，也感謝你有機會反思一下。如果我回顧過去 8 年的工作，現在是第 9 年，我最自豪的事情是我們作為一個團隊在將我們的交通計劃轉移到 PSR 模型方面取得的成就，在在過去 4 年的過程中，我們的客戶不會因過渡而受到損害，他們會從中受益。我認為我們在可持續性方面做了大量工作。正如我在開場白中提到的，我們在多樣性、公平性和包容性方面做了出色的工作。

We're recognized for that right now in the industry and in our communities. We've done really good work on setting ourselves up to be able to grow. We've got a wonderful stable of partners, IMCs that are world-class in hub, in Schneider and Knight-Swift and XPO in its current form. So I'm really, really pleased with that.

我們現在在行業和我們的社區中都得到了認可。我們在讓自己成長方面做得非常好。我們在施耐德和 Knight-Swift 以及目前形式的 XPO 中擁有一批出色的合作夥伴、世界一流的 IMC。所以我對此非常非常滿意。

As I look into the future, we are poised to be able to grow. We have to be consistent and reliable in our service product. That means we have to get our 5 critical resources right all the time. We got one of them wrong last year, part our issue and part the fact that the world blew up to a degree. But we have to be stable and consistent for our customers.

展望未來，我們已準備好成長。我們的服務產品必須始終如一且可靠。這意味著我們必須始終正確使用 5 種關鍵資源。去年我們弄錯了其中一個，一部分是我們的問題，另一部分是世界在一定程度上爆炸了。但我們必須為我們的客戶保持穩定和一致。

They tell us they want that and they will grow with us as we deliver that.

他們告訴我們他們想要那個，他們會在我們交付時與我們一起成長。

So I know the growth potential is there. Their supply chain want to use rail more, and the concept is really simple and straightforward. It's in our strategy, serve with consistent, reliable service, grow with service product and products that meet our customers' needs.

所以我知道增長潛力在那裡。他們的供應鏈想更多地使用鐵路，這個概念真的很簡單明了。在我們的戰略中，以一致、可靠的服務提供服務，以服務產品和滿足客戶需求的產品成長。

Do that in a way where we are the provider of choice, the partner of choice that allows us to win in the marketplace and do it together with all 4 of our stakeholders being benefited from it. We think the strategy is sound, and we're ready and executing on it.

以我們作為首選供應商和首選合作夥伴的方式做到這一點，使我們能夠在市場上取勝，並與我們的所有 4 個利益相關者一起從中受益。我們認為這個策略是合理的，我們已經準備好並正在執行它。

The next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自 David Vernon 和 Bernstein 的對話。

Jennifer, a couple of questions for you. Within the guidance that you're giving for a full year OR improvement, is that all just the mechanics of fuel? Or is there some improvement in the underlying business? And then as you think about comp from 2022 to 2023, on a full year basis, can you give us some sort of absolute numbers around inflation and what added cost is being put in there for PTO and additional enhancements to the compensation package?

詹妮弗，有幾個問題要問你。在你給出的一整年或改進的指導下，這只是燃料的機制嗎？還是底層業務有什麼改善？然後，當你考慮從 2022 年到 2023 年的全年薪酬時，你能給我們一些關於通貨膨脹的絕對數字，以及為 PTO 和額外的薪酬方案增加的額外成本嗎？

So in terms of our inflation guide, we said 4% was our inflation guide for 2023. And we said on the employee side, the comp would to be up mid-single digits. And those things still hold and that takes into account what we have negotiated for and plan to negotiate for in terms of paid sick leave.

因此，就我們的通貨膨脹指南而言，我們說 4% 是我們 2023 年的通貨膨脹指南。我們說在員工方面，薪酬將達到中個位數。這些事情仍然存在，並且考慮到我們已經就帶薪病假進行談判併計劃進行談判的內容。

In terms of how we're going to get there and how we're going to improve, it really is the basis for the service product the pricing. Fuel will be a component. I mean, it obviously is a component in there. But we have the other levers, and that's where we're very much focused.

就我們將如何到達那里以及我們將如何改進而言，這確實是服務產品定價的基礎。燃料將是一個組成部分。我的意思是，它顯然是其中的一個組件。但我們還有其他槓桿，這就是我們非常關注的地方。

Fuel's going to be what it's going to be. We're going to go after those items that we have the greater control over that's winning new business, pricing it appropriately and moving it efficiently.

燃料將成為未來的樣子。我們將追求那些我們對贏得新業務有更大控制權的項目，適當定價並有效地轉移它。

And then maybe, Eric, just as a quick follow-up, as you think about the FTE count for the full year, where are you sort of targeting the business to be at year-end 2023?

然後，埃里克，作為一個快速跟進，當你考慮全年的 FTE 計數時，你打算在 2023 年底將業務定位在哪裡？

I think Lance already answered that question. Our hiring levels for this year are roughly -- we came into the year assuming that they were going to be roughly similar to last year. Attrition is roughly similar in terms of what happens in the back half. We're really watching that from a volume standpoint. .

我認為 Lance 已經回答了這個問題。我們今年的招聘水平大致是——我們進入這一年時假設它們將與去年大致相似。就後半場發生的事情而言，減員大致相似。從數量的角度來看，我們確實在關注這一點。 .

Our final question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Jairam Nathan 與 Daiwa 的對話。

I just had a question on the EV penetration. And as -- do you need to -- does UP need to make investments given the fire risk of batteries within EVs?

我剛剛有一個關於電動汽車普及率的問題。考慮到電動汽車電池的火災風險，UP 是否需要進行投資？

I'll say that we have not seen that risk right now. We have very close relationship with the EV leaders we've enjoyed growth there. Our ramps are prepared to handle those EVs, and then we're looking at the forecast and the size and what we need to do anything from an investment perspective and make sure that we can efficiently move those off and on the ramp and do it faithfully.

我會說我們現在還沒有看到這種風險。我們與我們在那裡享受增長的 EV 領導者有著非常密切的關係。我們的坡道已準備好處理這些電動汽車，然後我們正在研究預測和規模以及我們需要從投資的角度做些什麼，並確保我們能夠有效地將它們移出和移上坡道並忠實地做到這一點.

Yes. Jairam, I think fundamentally, the answer is we have not seen a shift in risk based on our shipments of EVs.

是的。 Jairam，我認為從根本上說，答案是我們沒有看到基於電動汽車出貨量的風險轉移。

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Lance Fritz for closing comments. .

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權轉回給 Lance Fritz 先生髮表結束評論。 .

And thank you, Rob, and thank you all for joining us today and for your questions. We're looking forward to talking with our owners again in May at our annual meeting. Until then, take care.

謝謝你，Rob，感謝大家今天加入我們並提出你的問題。我們期待在 5 月的年會上再次與我們的業主交談。在那之前，保重。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。