半導體公司聯華電子公佈了 2023 年第四季財務業績,由於產能利用率較低,營收出現下滑。
該公司計劃透過多元化製造以及與英特爾在 12 奈米 FinFET 技術方面的合作來應對挑戰。
聯電預計 2024 年第一季晶圓需求溫和,並計畫投資 33 億美元資本支出用於 12 吋產能擴張。
他們對客戶需求持謹慎樂觀態度,並預期代工業將出現成長。
聯電和英特爾宣布就 12 奈米製程展開合作,里程碑設定為 2025 年凍結該製程並於 2027 年開始生產。
此次合作被視為降低風險和利用現有製造能力的一種方式。
聯華電子計劃利用現有設備並減少前期投資。
該公司的目標是保持毛利率水準在中點左右,同時增加利潤率的彈性。
沒有提供與英特爾合作的細節,包括產能和資本支出假設。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Welcome everyone to UMC's 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet. Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished. Please visit our website, www.umc.com under the Investor Relations, Investors Events section.
歡迎大家參加聯電 2023 年第四季獲利電話會議。 (操作員說明)僅供參考,本次電話會議現透過網路進行現場直播。會議結束後一小時內將提供網路直播重播。請造訪我們的網站 www.umc.com 的「投資者關係」、「投資者活動」部分。
And now I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC. Mr. Lin, please begin.
現在我想介紹一下聯華電子投資者關係主管 Michael Lin 先生。林先生,請開始。
Michael Lin
Michael Lin
Thank you, and welcome to UMC's conference call for the Fourth Quarter of 2023. I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, the President of UMC; and Mr. Chi-Tung Liu, the CFO of UMC. In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the fourth quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's focus and the first quarter of 2024 guidance. Once our President and CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A session. UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com under the Investors financial section.
謝謝大家,歡迎參加聯電 2023 年第四季電話會議。以及聯電財務長劉志東先生。稍後,我們將聽到我們的財務長介紹第四季度的財務業績,然後是我們的總裁關於解決 UMC 重點和 2024 年第一季指導的關鍵訊息。一旦我們的總裁和財務長完成發言,就會有問答環節。 UMC 的季度財務報告可在我們的網站 www.umc.com 的投資者財務部分查閱。
During this conference, we may make forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs. These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risk that may be beyond the company's control. For a more detailed description of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our recent and subsequent filings with the SEC and the ROC security authorities. During this conference, you may view our financial presentation material, which is being broadcast live through the Internet.
在這次會議期間,我們可能會根據管理層目前的期望和信念做出前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異,包括可能超出公司控制範圍的風險。有關這些風險和不確定性的更詳細描述,請參閱我們最近和隨後向 SEC 和中華民國安全機構提交的文件。在本次會議期間,您可以觀看我們正在透過網路現場直播的財務簡報資料。
Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Mr. Chi-Tung Liu, to discuss UMC's fourth quarter 2023 financial results.
現在我想介紹聯電財務長劉志東先生,討論聯華電子2023年第四季的財務表現。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Thank you, Michael. I'd like to go through the 4Q '23 investor conference presentation material which can be downloaded or viewed in real time from our website.
謝謝你,麥可。我想瀏覽一下 23 年第 4 季投資者會議簡報資料,該資料可以從我們的網站下載或即時查看。
Starting on Page 4, the fourth quarter of 2023. Consolidated revenue was TWD 54.96 billion, with gross margin at 32.4%. Net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent for TWD 13.2 billion. Earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 1.06 in Q4 2023.
從第4頁開始,2023年第四季。歸屬母公司股東淨利為新台幣132億元。 2023 年第四季每股普通股收益為新台幣 1.06。
Page 5, this is the sequential performance. Revenue declined 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 54.9 billion. Gross margin rate dropped roughly 3.5 percentage point to 32.4% or TWD 17.8 billion. With a net non-operating income of TWD 2.22 billion, the net income comes to TWD 13.19 billion or EPS of TWD 1.06. This is compared to TWD 1.29 in the previous quarter of 2023.
第5頁,這是順序表演。營收季減 3.7% 至新台幣 549 億。毛利率下降約3.5個百分點至32.4%,即178億新台幣。營業外淨收入22.2億元,淨利131.9億元,每股收益1.06元。 相比之下,2023 年上季為 1.29 台幣。
For year-over-year comparison on Page 6, revenue declined roughly by 20% year-over-year to TWD 222 billion. This is largely due to the lower capacity utilization rate. Wafer shipment declined roughly 27% year-over-year from 2022 to 2023. Gross margin rate as a result, declined from 45.1% in 2022 to 34.9% in 2023. Overall, net earnings in 2023 was TWD 50.99 billion or close to TWD 51 billion. Net income rate was 27.4% compared to 31.3% in the year of 2022. EPS, as a result, is TWD 4.93 in 2023 compared to TWD 7.09 in 2022.
第六頁的年比比較中,營收年減約 20% 至 2,220 億新台幣。這主要是由於產能利用率較低所致。 2022年至2023年晶圓出貨量年減約27%。 51十億。淨利率為 27.4%,而 2022 年為 31.3%。
On Page 7, our cash on hand still around TWD 132 billion and total equity of the company has come to TWD 359.5 billion. Book value per share is close to TWD 29 per share at the end of 2023.
第七頁,我們手上現金仍有1320億新台幣左右,公司總股本已達3595億新台幣。 2023年底每股帳面價值接近29元新台幣。
On Page 8, starting from 2024, we have changed our ASP units as well as capacity unit to 12-inch equivalent to express the ASP number as well as the capacity number. So for the past 5 quarters, as you can see the trend chart here, the first 3 quarter was edging up and the last 2 quarter was relatively firm on 12-inch wafer equivalent ASP trend.
在第8頁,從2024年開始,我們將ASP單位和容量單位更改為相當於12英寸,以表達ASP數和容量數。因此,在過去的 5 個季度中,正如您可以在此處看到的趨勢圖一樣,前 3 季小幅上升,後 2 季 12 吋晶圓等效 ASP 趨勢相對穩定。
So on Page 9, for the revenue breakdown by geography, Asia is getting a little bit bigger to 62% of our total revenue, and North America is about 23% of our total revenue. For year-over-year comparison, on Page 10, Asia actually declined from 61% in 2022 to 57% in 2023. And the rest of the 3 main regions didn't change much.
因此,在第 9 頁上,按地區劃分的收入細分中,亞洲的比例增加,達到我們總收入的 62%,北美約占我們總收入的 23%。年比比較,第10頁顯示,亞洲實際上從2022年的61%下降到2023年的57%。
On Page 11, IDM continue to increase (inaudible) to 22% and fabless is around 78% in Q4 of 2023. On a year-over-year comparison on Page 12, the increase in IDM is more notable from 15% in 2022 to 2023 of 22%. And in terms of application breakdown on Page 13, communication remained the biggest of 47%, and the spread among different applications didn't change much quarter-over-quarter. As for year-over-year change, computer declined from 15% in 2022 to 11% in 2023. We continue to see bigger exposure to other segment, which is mostly automotive and industrial, around 20% compared to 14% in the previous year.
在第11 頁,IDM 持續成長(聽不清楚)至22%,到2023 年第四季,無晶圓廠約為78%。從2022 年的15% 成長到2023 年第四季。而從第13頁的應用細分來看,通訊仍是最大的,為47%,不同應用之間的分佈環比變化不大。至於同比變化,計算機從2022 年的15% 下降到2023 年的11%。 我們繼續看到其他細分市場的敞口更大,主要是汽車和工業,約為20%,而上一年為14 % 。
For technology breakdown, we are happy to see that revenue come from 40-nanometer and below now represents 50% of our total revenue, and this is compared to about 45% in the previous quarter and 22 and 28 is our largest share of revenue around 36% in the Q4 of '23. For the full year numbers, the trend is also similar. We see the 22/28 revenue of 31% compared to 24% in the previous year.
對於技術細分,我們很高興看到來自 40 奈米及以下製程的收入現在占我們總收入的 50%,而上一季約為 45%,而 22 和 28 是我們收入中最大的份額23 年第第四季為36%。對於全年數據來說,趨勢也類似。我們預計 22/28 的收入為 31%,而前一年為 24%。
On Page 17, as I mentioned earlier, the unit of capacity wafer also changed to 12-inch equivalent. Right now, our quarterly available capacity is a bit over 1.2 million per quarter in terms of 12-inch equivalent capacity, and we will continue to see some minor increase out of our 12A capacity, given our PC expansion is continuing.
在第17頁,如我先前所提到的,產能晶圓的單位也改為12吋當量。目前,就 12 吋等效產能而言,我們的季度可用產能略高於 120 萬片,鑑於我們的 PC 擴張仍在繼續,我們將繼續看到 12A 產能略有增加。
On the last page of my presentation, CapEx for 2024 is currently budget at USD 3.3 billion, with majority of that over 95% close to 12-inch capacity expansion in both Tainan and also Singapore. The above is a summary of UMC's results for Q4 2023. More details are available in the report, which has been posted on our website.
在我演講的最後一頁,2024 年的資本支出目前預算為 33 億美元,其中超過 95% 的大部分接近於台南和新加坡的 12 吋產能擴張。以上是聯華電子 2023 年第四季業績的摘要。
I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Jason Wang.
我現在將電話轉給聯電總裁王傑森先生。
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Thank you, Chi-Tung. Good evening, everyone. Here, I would like to share UMC's fourth quarter results. In the fourth quarter, challenging macroeconomic conditions continue to prolong the inventory correction in the semiconductor industry as our wafer shipment decreased to 2.5% quarter-over-quarter while overall fab utilization rate slightly fell to 66%. As our Tainan 12A P6 facility continues to ramp, our 22/28 nanometer represented 36% of our Q4 wafer revenue, reflecting record high in revenue as well as percentage of the wafer sales.
謝謝你,志東。大家晚上好。在這裡,我想分享一下聯電第四季的業績。第四季度,充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境持續延長半導體產業的庫存調整,我們的晶圓出貨量較上季下降至2.5%,而整體晶圓廠利用率則小幅下降至66%。隨著我們台南 12A P6 工廠的持續產能提升,我們的 22/28 奈米晶圓占我們第四季度晶圓收入的 36%,反映了收入和晶圓銷售百分比的歷史新高。
Overall, 2023 was a year where UMC demonstrated its financial resilience in face of a challenging external environment. We were able to achieve yearly 34.9% gross margin despite the utilization rate significantly declined in 2023. This resilience can be attributed to our relentless pursuit of technology innovation differentiation, customer synergy and stickiness enhancement and manufacturing quality excellence and cost reductions. As a result, we have improved our product mix and customer portfolio, which led ASP by single digit in 2023.
整體而言,2023 年是聯電在充滿挑戰的外在環境下展現財務彈性的一年。儘管2023年利用率大幅下降,我們仍實現了34.9%的年毛利率。因此,我們改善了產品組合和客戶組合,使 ASP 在 2023 年領先個位數。
Looking into the first quarter of 2024, we anticipate overall wafer demand will increase mildly. However, customer maintains a cautious approach in their inventory management. Moving forward, UMC will continue to navigate headwinds amid an increasing competitive landscape and swelling geopolitical tensions via diversified manufacturing base and differentiation in 12-inch specialty technologies. Our 12-nanometer FinFET collaboration is a step forward in advancing our strategy of pursuing cost-efficient capacity expansion and technology node advancement in continuing our commitment to customers.
展望2024年第一季度,我們預期整體晶圓需求將溫和成長。然而,客戶在庫存管理方面保持謹慎態度。展望未來,聯電將繼續透過多元化的製造基地和 12 吋專業技術的差異化,在日益激烈的競爭格局和不斷加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢中應對逆風。我們的 12 奈米 FinFET 合作是推動我們追求經濟高效的產能擴張和技術節點進步的策略的一步,以繼續我們對客戶的承諾。
This effort will enable our customers to smoothly migrate to these critical new nodes and also benefit from the resiliency of an added Western footprint. We anticipate 12-nanometer FinFET collaboration will broaden our addressable market and significantly accelerate our development roadmap.
這項努力將使我們的客戶能夠順利遷移到這些關鍵的新節點,並受益於增加的西方足跡的彈性。我們預計 12 奈米 FinFET 合作將擴大我們的潛在市場並大幅加快我們的開發路線圖。
Now let's move on to first quarter 2024 guidance. Our wafer shipments will increase by 2% to 3%. ASP in US dollars were decreased by 5%. Gross margins will be approximately 30%. Capacity utilization rate will be in the low 60% range. Our 2024 cash-based CapEx will be budgeted at USD 3.3 billion.
現在讓我們繼續討論 2024 年第一季的指導。我們的晶圓出貨量將成長2%至3%。以美元計算的平均售價下降了 5%。毛利率約30%。產能利用率將在60%左右。我們 2024 年以現金為基礎的資本支出預算為 33 億美元。
That concludes my comments. Thank you all for your attention. Now we are ready for questions.
我的評論到此結束。感謝大家的關注。現在我們準備好提問了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) And the first question will be coming from Randy Abrams, UBS.
(操作員說明)第一個問題將由瑞銀集團的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯提出。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
I wanted to ask the first question, probably multipart because I wanted to get a few more details on the Intel partnership, which looks like a big move in a new direction. Maybe I'll run off the questions we had. First, if you could discuss funding of the CapEx, and then if there's any IP or NRU proceeds that UMC would get by supplying the technology, I'll start with those. I have a few follow-ups.
我想問第一個問題,可能是多部分的,因為我想了解有關英特爾合作關係的更多細節,這看起來像是朝著新方向邁出的一大步。也許我會迴避我們提出的問題。首先,如果您可以討論資本支出的資金,然後如果 UMC 透過提供技術可以獲得任何 IP 或 NRU 收益,我將從這些開始。我有一些後續行動。
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean for the 12-nanometer collaboration with Intel, on the funding side, the development cost for the collaboration will be shared mutually. And there are some used equipment that will significantly reduce the upfront investment for both parties for this collaboration. So there's not much more to discuss in detail for the funding part. This collaboration will result positive impact to our P&L once the volume ramps up and the profit will be recognized at the time.
那我的意思是對於12奈米與英特爾的合作,在資金方面,合作的開發成本將相互分攤。並且有一些二手設備將大大減少雙方合作的前期投資。因此,對於資金部分,沒有更多的細節需要討論。一旦銷量增加,這種合作將對我們的損益產生積極的影響,屆時就會確認利潤。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. So it sounds like there's no process transfer because it's a co-development, so you'll co-fund it in R&D. And then as it ramps, how is the sales approach? Would it be each company, respectively, sells to their respective customer base, that offering? And would it be the same offering or you would focus on different parts of the market?
好的。所以聽起來好像沒有流程轉移,因為它是共同開發,所以你將在研發中共同資助它。然後隨著它的發展,銷售方式如何?每家公司都會分別向各自的客戶群銷售產品嗎?是提供相同的產品還是專注於市場的不同部分?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, first of all, the 12-nanometer address the gap in the node portfolio for both parties. So those 12-nanometer is the offering that we're expanding our product offering, and we will be serving our customers. And this will be a vertical cooperation between us and Intel.
嗯,首先,12 奈米解決了雙方節點產品組合中的差距。因此,這些 12 奈米是我們正在擴展的產品範圍,我們將為我們的客戶提供服務。這將是我們和英特爾之間的縱向合作。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
So if I may add on to that. Basically, you can see this is an extension of our technology offering to our existing customers and potential customers. So coming from 28/22 from 14, and certainly, this technology roadmap will be perceived as the continuous advancement for a lot of UMC-based customers and potential customers.
那我可以補充一下嗎?基本上,您可以看到這是我們向現有客戶和潛在客戶提供的技術的延伸。因此,從 14 月 28 日到 22 日,這項技術路線圖無疑將被視為許多基於 UMC 的客戶和潛在客戶的持續進步。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. And a question on the timeline. I think previously, you were talking about freezing the process in early 2025 and then a year to go into volume from that initial freezing. So the timeline was listed at '27. I guess, 2 questions. Would you still do a process in your existing Asian fabs, or is this a new focus? And would the timeline push out, or could you try to pull that development timeline in?
好的。還有一個關於時間軸的問題。我認為之前,您談論的是在 2025 年初凍結該流程,然後從最初的凍結開始一年後進入量產階段。所以時間表被列為'27。我想,2個問題。您仍會在現有的亞洲晶圓廠中進行工藝,或者這是一個新的焦點?時間表會被推遲嗎?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
I mean, from our original milestone, we targeted to have the process ready by 2025 as reported in the past. And now while we joint develop with Intel to complete this development we will follow that timeline from PDK readiness from customer engagement to the production ramp, there's still going to be a 1.5 year beyond that. So now we put it to expecting shipment, I mean, the production will begin in 2027. In the meantime, we will align with our customers and to finalize the final rent schedule.
我的意思是,從我們最初的里程碑開始,我們的目標是在 2025 年之前準備好該流程,正如過去所報導的那樣。現在,當我們與英特爾共同開發來完成這項開發時,我們將遵循從 PDK 準備就緒、從客戶參與到量產提升的時間表,但仍需要 1.5 年的時間。所以現在我們預計發貨,我的意思是,生產將於 2027 年開始。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. The last one I just have on this topic, the cost of product, I mean, would it be considered as an Intel fab, so you'd be paying a foundry fee like their manufacturing and on their line, or would you have operators, so it's -- yes, how do you handle the transfer pricing as the cost structure is not there? How much control do you have on the process?
好的。我剛剛就這個主題提出的最後一個問題是產品成本,我的意思是,它是否會被視為英特爾晶圓廠,因此您需要支付代工費,就像他們的製造和生產線一樣,或者您是否有運營商,所以,是的,由於成本結構不存在,您如何處理轉讓定價?您對流程有多少控制權?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean these are comprehensive cooperation details that I can't -- I'd not be able to elaborate in here. As a result, like I said, the result will be a positive impact to our P&L based on that collaboration agreement.
嗯,我的意思是這些是全面的合作細節,我無法在這裡詳細說明。因此,正如我所說,基於該合作協議,結果將對我們的損益產生積極影響。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. Yes, it looks like an asset-light way to do it versus at least building, I think the original plan, if you would build a line to do FinFET and one of the other fabs if this is the approach.
好的。是的,這看起來像是一種輕資產的方式來實現這一點,而不是至少建造,我認為最初的計劃是,如果你要建造一條生產FinFET 的生產線和其他晶圓廠之一(如果這是這種方法的話)。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Right. This is truly just a commercial cooperation. The party will be able to share the cost while leveraging the expertise. So we believe this will be a good way to leverage the synergy of both parties and to accelerate to this market.
正確的。這確實只是一次商業合作。各方將能夠在利用專業知識的同時分擔成本。所以我們相信這將是利用雙方協同效應並加速進入這個市場的好方法。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. And I know it was a multipart. I'll just ask one other question. If you could talk about -- so just on the pricing with the first quarter, it was a 5% ASP decline. Could you talk how much is a mix, like the tech migration is moving very aggressively to 28. Is there a shift in mix involved? How much is like-for-like pricing? And just after that, because there are more concerns about the mature node, the 8-inch ongoing pressure, should we view it as a onetime reset on pricing, or do you expect we may start getting into -- as long as the fabs aren't full, and there's competition, mild price erosions, like how do you see it, I think, first, the mix versus pricing? And then from the first quarter level, how you see pricing environment?
好的。我知道這是一個多部分的。我只問另一個問題。如果你可以談談——僅就第一季的定價而言,平均售價下降了 5%。您能否談談混合有多少,就像技術遷移正在非常積極地轉向 28 一樣。同類定價是多少?就在那之後,因為對成熟節點的擔憂越來越多,8英寸的持續壓力,我們是否應該將其視為一次性定價重置,或者您是否期望我們可以開始進入 - 只要晶圓廠不完整,並且存在競爭,溫和的價格侵蝕,我想,首先,你如何看待它的組合與定價?那麼從第一季的水平來看,您如何看待定價環境?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Maybe I'll start off. So first of all, there is no change in our pricing strategy, which is in respect to the foundry market. The Q1 ASP guidance included an annual one-off pricing adjustment of 2024 as well as the change in product mix. Nevertheless, I mean, UMC is being fully aware of the market dynamics and the competition situation. And we will support our customers and we will closely monitoring the market, align with them and on appropriate pricing position to safe start and protect UMC towards our customers rather than market share.
也許我會開始。首先,我們針對代工市場的定價策略並沒有改變。第一季 ASP 指導包括 2024 年年度一次性定價調整以及產品組合的變化。儘管如此,我的意思是,聯華電子充分了解市場動態和競爭狀況。我們將支持我們的客戶,我們將密切關注市場,與他們保持一致並採取適當的定價立場,以安全啟動並保護聯華電子麵向我們的客戶而不是市場份額。
We will only support our customers in order to maintain or increase their market share in selected markets. And we have no intention to fall into a price war, often reflected in the commodity market. From a mix standpoint, although the annual one-off pricing adjustment, this will lead to a slightly lower planned ASP for Q1, and we expect this ASP will remain firm beyond Q1 '24 for the rest of the year 2024, which already fast in, including the product mix and LTA terms, for example, yes.
我們只會為客戶提供支持,以維持或增加他們在選定市場的市場份額。而且我們無意陷入價格戰,往往反映在商品市場上。從混合的角度來看,儘管每年進行一次性定價調整,但這將導致第一季的計劃平均售價略低,我們預計該平均售價將在2024 年第一季之後保持堅挺,並在2024年剩餘時間內保持穩定,這在2024 年已經快速增長。
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Randy Abrams - Analyst
Okay. And just to clarify, in first quarter, is mix -- how is 28-nanometer doing versus the mature node? Are they coming back a little bit with shipment rebound, or is it relatively stable mix across?
好的。需要澄清的是,在第一季度,混合技術—28 奈米與成熟節點相比表現如何?隨著出貨量反彈,它們是否會回升,還是相對穩定的組合?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean, the overall Q1 28-nanometer loading is slightly lighter again in Q4 '23, mainly due to the seasonality effect and some urging order in Q4 '23. And our overall 22 and 28 loading continue to be resilient amid the market fluctuation. And we will also continue to grow our 22 and 28 business with our customers for the application of OLED driver, ISP, Wi-Fi SoC processor, while the further expansion of technology offering in the advanced NCU product and automotive, industrial segment. For Q1, we're experiencing a slightly lighter of the loading for 28.
嗯,我的意思是,23 年第 4 季的整體 28 奈米負載再次略輕,主要是由於季節性效應和 23 年第 4 季的一些催促訂單。在市場波動的情況下,我們的 22 日和 28 日整體裝載量持續保持彈性。我們也將繼續與客戶一起發展 22 和 28 業務,包括 OLED 驅動器、ISP、Wi-Fi SoC 處理器的應用,同時進一步擴展先進 NCU 產品和汽車、工業領域的技術產品。對於第一季度,我們的 28 負載略有減少。
Operator
Operator
Next one, Nicolas Baratte, Macquarie.
下一位是麥格理的 Nicolas Baratte。
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
Last quarter, I think you mentioned some weaker demand in automobile and industrial. Is it still the case? And does that contribute to lower loading your ASP in 1Q '24?
上個季度,我認為您提到了汽車和工業領域的需求疲軟。現在還是這樣嗎?這是否會導致 2024 年第一季的 ASP 負載降低?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Yes, for the Q1 on the segment side, we expect that automotive and industrial end market will continue experiencing the inventory correction. Hence, the wafer demand in automotive and industrial segment will remain soft. The communication and computer and consumer segments have stabilized for now, and the contribution will remain flattish quarter-over-quarter.
是的,對於第一季的細分市場而言,我們預計汽車和工業終端市場將繼續經歷庫存調整。因此,汽車和工業領域的晶圓需求將保持疲軟。通訊、電腦和消費領域目前已經穩定,季度環比貢獻將持平。
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
So you mentioned USD 3.3 billion CapEx in 2024, 95% in 12-inch, right? I think that's correct. This entirely include -- is it entirely 28/22 nanometer capacity increase, or is there something else?
所以您提到2024年資本支出為33億美元,其中95%用於12英寸,對吧?我認為這是正確的。這完全包括──完全是28/22奈米容量的增加,還是還有別的什麼?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, for our 2024 cash-based CapEx budget is USD 3.3 billion. Out of that, the 20% of CapEx was budgeted towards to 22 and 28 expansion in our -- the remaining expansion in P6 and the 12X, which was pushed out during the 2022 and 2023 times. This reflects our effort to managing our CapEx. Around 60% of the 2024 CapEx will be spent on the 12 IP3 infrastructure as well as the minimum tool and equipment. We expect the rent of the 12 IP3 will start at April 2025, so the infrastructure is ongoing. And we project the CapEx will peak out this year and will not impact company's cash dividend policy, as we have stated in the past, our CapEx strategy will continue to remain disciplined in ROI-driven phase and on our affordability as well where we invest towards future growth back with the customer commitment. If the markets do not rebound as expected in 2025, we will further adjust our CapEx accordingly.
那麼,我們 2024 年以現金為基礎的資本支出預算為 33 億美元。其中,20% 的資本支出預算用於我們的 22 和 28 擴展,剩餘的 P6 和 12X 擴展將在 2022 年和 2023 年期間推出。這反映了我們在管理資本支出方面所做的努力。 2024 年資本支出的約 60% 將用於 12 IP3 基礎設施以及最低限度的工具和設備。我們預計 12 個 IP3 的租金將於 2025 年 4 月開始,因此基礎設施正在進行中。我們預計資本支出將在今年達到頂峰,並且不會影響公司的現金股利政策,正如我們過去所說,我們的資本支出策略將繼續在投資回報率驅動階段和我們的承受能力以及我們投資的領域保持紀律。如果2025年市場沒有如預期反彈,我們將進一步相應調整資本支出。
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
Nicolas Guy Gabriel Baratte - Analyst
Is there a change in the planned capacity of IP3 in Singapore?
新加坡IP3的規劃容量是否有變動?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
I mean the P3, the 12i Singapore P3, the infrastructure at the (inaudible). For the infrastructure, it means the overall structure of the building and the facilities but now it is only with a very minimum to equipment.
我指的是 P3、12i 新加坡 P3、(聽不清楚)的基礎建設。對於基礎設施來說,它指的是建築物的整體結構和設施,但現在只是非常少的設備。
Operator
Operator
Next one, Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.
下一位是摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
My first question, just a follow-up on the Intel collaboration. Would you be also using the same node in some of your future fabs, the 12-nanometer node, or like, let's say, your lateral phase of expansion in Singapore? Or is that going to be all the 12-nanometer capacity will be only in the U.S. fabs of your partner?
我的第一個問題是英特爾合作的後續問題。您是否也會在未來的一些晶圓廠中使用相同的節點,即 12 奈米節點,或者像您在新加坡的橫向擴張階段一樣?或者說,所有 12 奈米產能都將集中在您合作夥伴的美國晶圓廠嗎?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean, not at this point, and we'll focus on to ramp the Western footprint first. And if it comes to the market demands or the customer commitments that we were looking to the other option as well, but not at this point, no.
嗯,我的意思是,現在還不行,我們將首先專注於擴大西方的足跡。如果涉及市場需求或客戶承諾,我們也在尋找其他選擇,但目前還沒有,沒有。
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Okay, understood. And Jason, maybe a little bit more on the pricing front. Could you talk a little bit about what you're seeing in various parts of your portfolio, 8-inch, 28-nanometer and mature 12-inch? Are you seeing very different kind of pricing? And given your firm pricing strategy, how is your market share holding up with your key customers? Are you seeing any market share losses given all these concerns about capacity expansion in China?
好的,明白了。傑森,也許在定價方面多說一點。您能否談談您在產品組合的各個部分(8 英寸、28 奈米和成熟的 12 英寸)中看到的情況?您是否看到了非常不同的定價方式?鑑於您堅定的定價策略,您的主要客戶的市場佔有率如何?鑑於對中國產能擴張的所有擔憂,您是否看到市場份額出現損失?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
I mean, in the boundary landscape, some markets are more likely to become commoditized. However, our strategy has always focused on technology differentiation that will drive our long-term growth and shift away from commoditized the market with a low entry barrier. So right now, there's still a mix of the type of product within our portfolio, and we are gradually moving away from that. We have proactively increased our effort in technology advancement, including 12-nanometer like we talked about it and 22/28.
我的意思是,在邊界景觀中,有些市場更有可能商品化。然而,我們的策略始終專注於技術差異化,這將推動我們的長期成長,並擺脫進入門檻較低的商品化市場。所以現在,我們的產品組合中仍然存在多種產品類型,我們正在逐漸擺脫這種情況。我們積極加大了技術進步的力度,包括我們談到的 12 奈米和 22/28。
For example, we expect to see higher revenue contribution from the technology nodes such as 22/28 (inaudible) 55-nanometer RFSOI in 2024. Beyond 2024, our broader technology offering, along with the geographically diverse manufacturing location and customer stickiness, where all of it are overall competitive. So we expect this action will reduce our exposure by half in the next couple of years and for our current commoditized product by half in the next few years, yes.
例如,我們預計2024 年22/28(聽不清楚)55 奈米RFSOI 等技術節點將帶來更高的收入貢獻。和客戶黏性,所有這些其中整體具有競爭力。因此,我們預計這項行動將在未來幾年內將我們的風險敞口減少一半,並將我們目前的商品化產品在未來幾年內減少一半,是的。
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
So I think a couple of years back, you had given us some numbers on specialty product mix. I think it was about 30%-35%, if I remember right, 2, 3 years back. Is there any update in terms of how much of your product mix is now specialty and how much of it is single sourced in terms of the total business that you have?
所以我想幾年前,您給了我們一些關於特種產品組合的數字。如果我沒記錯的話,兩三年前,我認為大約是 30%-35%。就您的總業務而言,您的產品組合現在有多少是專業的,有多少是單一來源的,有什麼更新嗎?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
For specialty right now is, in Q1, is in a high 50% range. So the single sourced product is actually quite high. It's higher than that. However, we also have to look in the end market competition. So some of those products also consider as the commoditized area, and we're gradually moving out from that space, yes.
目前,第一季的專業技術處於 50% 的較高範圍內。所以單一來源的產品其實是相當高的。它比那還要高。不過,我們還得看看終端市場的競爭狀況。因此,其中一些產品也被視為商品化領域,是的,我們正在逐漸退出該領域。
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Last question on how do you think about overall order visibility into the next few months? Are you starting to see customers come back, or you think the customer stance is still a little bit more cautious, given some of your other companies have been starting to talk about utilization bottoming out and growth kind of resuming? Any thoughts about how you expect growth to look like for the foundry industry this year and also for UMC?
最後一個問題是,您如何看待未來幾個月的整體訂單可見度?您是否開始看到客戶回來,或者考慮到您的其他一些公司已經開始談論利用率觸底回升和成長恢復,您認為客戶的態度仍然更加謹慎嗎?您對今年代工產業和聯華電子的成長預期有何想法?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Sure. I mean, we start off on the maybe industry. We do expect the 2024, the semi industry will grow probably to a mid-single digit year-over-year. But for foundry, we project that it will grow in the high single-digit range. And for the UMC, we will strive to grow in line with the foundry industry. Despite that, our addressable market will probably remain flattish. As far as the demand outlook, of course, we start off with the inventory situation. And although we have observed healthier inventory level in PC and smartphone market segment in Q4 '23, the customer remained cautious after the Q1 '24 restocking of the mobile applications.
當然。我的意思是,我們從可能的行業開始。我們確實預計,到 2024 年,半導體產業的年成長可能會達到中個位數。但對於代工廠來說,我們預計它將在高個位數範圍內成長。而對於聯華電子來說,我們將努力與代工產業同步成長。儘管如此,我們的目標市場可能仍將持平。就需求前景而言,當然,我們先從庫存狀況開始。儘管我們觀察到 23 年第 4 季 PC 和智慧型手機市場的庫存水準更為健康,但在 24 年第 1 季重新進貨行動應用程式後,客戶仍保持謹慎態度。
For the auto and industrial segment, they will likely require more time to digest the inventory and return back to normal in the second half of 2023. So overall, the visibility of 2024 is relatively limited due to macro uncertainties. And while there is a lingering inventory issue in auto and industrial segment, we are cautiously optimistic about the market demand given the PC and mobile inventory have returned to a bit healthier level in Q4 '23 already. So I think customer is behaving a little bit cautious after the Q1 restocking and we'll continue monitoring the market dynamics.
對於汽車和工業領域來說,2023年下半年可能需要更多的時間來消化庫存並恢復正常。儘管汽車和工業領域的庫存問題揮之不去,但鑑於 PC 和行動裝置庫存已在 23 年第 4 季恢復到較為健康的水平,我們對市場需求持謹慎樂觀態度。因此,我認為第一季補貨後客戶表現得有點謹慎,我們將繼續監控市場動態。
Operator
Operator
Next one, Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.
下一位是高盛的布魯斯·盧。
Zheng Lu - VP
Zheng Lu - VP
So first of all, I want to double check about the foundry growth you just mentioned that you talked about like the foundry is going to grow about like 10% and your addressable market is going to be flattish. I think this is meaningfully lower than what your peers were talking about 20%. Can you tell us where is the discrepancy? Why you are so much more conservative than your peers?
首先,我想仔細檢查您剛才提到的代工廠成長情況,您談到代工廠將成長 10% 左右,而您的目標市場將持平。我認為這明顯低於同行所說的 20%。您能告訴我們差異在哪裡嗎?為什麼你比同齡人保守得多?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean, I can't really comment on our peers because I don't know what data they're using on, but I'm sure all of us are collecting the data from both the market and our customer and different market segments. Our data shows that the 2024, on the foundry side, I mean, foundry market will probably grow to high single digits and close to 10%. And while the foundries at least within our addressable will probably stay flattish. That's what our data shows. Since I don't have our peers' information, so I can't really comment about the discrepancy.
嗯,我的意思是,我無法真正評論我們的同行,因為我不知道他們正在使用哪些數據,但我確信我們所有人都在從市場、我們的客戶和不同市場收集數據段。我們的數據顯示,到 2024 年,在代工方面,我的意思是,代工市場可能會成長到高個位數,接近 10%。雖然至少在我們可尋址範圍內的代工廠可能會保持穩定。這就是我們的數據所顯示的。由於我沒有同行的信息,所以我無法對這種差異做出真正的評論。
Zheng Lu - VP
Zheng Lu - VP
The second thing is that regarding the Intel collaborations. I think can you provide us a couple milestones that we can check or follow-up because I think the key for this strategy is all about the executions, right? I mean, how can we track the execution from both parties? I mean, for example, what timeframe you can complete your process development, what kind of timeframe you can avail for tape-out, what kind of timeframe customer can get -- we can recognize some revenue or profit. Can we have some timeline for that? And also, is the collaboration only limited to 12-nanometers? What about like 10-nanometer or 7-nanometers or any advanced process development?
第二件事是關於英特爾的合作。我想你能為我們提供一些我們可以檢查或跟進的里程碑,因為我認為該策略的關鍵在於執行,對嗎?我的意思是,我們如何追蹤雙方的執行情況?我的意思是,例如,您可以在什麼時間範圍內完成流程開發、您可以在什麼時間範圍內進行流片、客戶可以獲得什麼類型的時間範圍——我們可以確認一些收入或利潤。我們可以為此制定一些時間表嗎?另外,合作僅限於 12 奈米嗎? 10 奈米或 7 奈米或任何先進製程開發怎麼樣?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, first of all, this collaboration is focused on the 12-nanometer process. And we look at this 12-nanometer, it represents a long-term commitment and the opportunity for both parties. And as far as the future opportunity, we hope there will be, but it's probably going to be in the future. And once there is anything we're glad to report that. For the milestone, you're right, there's a very comprehensive project milestones under this joint development program. The major milestone is we like to freeze our process in 2025 and get everything ready for customer engagement after that and hopefully the pilot at '26 and the production in '27, which is aligned to what we have reported is production in '27.
嗯,首先,這次合作的重點是12奈米製程。而我們看這個12納米,它代表了雙方的長期承諾和機會。至於未來的機會,我們希望會有,但很可能會在未來。一旦有任何情況,我們很樂意報告。對於里程碑,你是對的,在這個聯合開發計劃下有一個非常全面的專案里程碑。主要里程碑是我們希望在 2025 年凍結我們的流程,並為之後的客戶參與做好一切準備,並希望在 26 年進行試點並在 27 年進行生產,這與我們報告的 27 年生產是一致的。
And hopefully, we see a meaningful revenue contribution started from year 2027. And that's probably in a very high level a milestone. There are many, many details that we understand, that we're fully aware of it. So we just have to executing it and we're putting great attention to it. We believe this collaboration actually already been mitigated by leveraging the existing manufacturing footprint without going to the complicated setup of a greenfield facility. So we have mitigated some of the risk in terms of execution. And within the rest of us, we just have to execute and report it accordingly.
希望我們能從 2027 年開始看到有意義的收入貢獻。有很多很多細節我們都了解,我們也完全了解。所以我們只需要執行它並且我們非常關注它。我們相信,這種合作實際上已經透過利用現有的製造足跡而得到緩解,而無需進行複雜的新建設施設置。因此,我們減輕了執行上的一些風險。而對於我們其他人來說,我們只需要相應地執行和報告。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Yes. And also for both Intel and UMC are listed companies, of course, this collaboration in small material, given our size relatively to Intel. So certainly, we will report the progress on quarterly basis to our stakeholders. And as Jason mentioned, once we freeze the PDK and with customer engagement, hopefully, we have some kind of customer announcement in between.
是的。而且對英特爾和聯華電子來說都是上市公司,當然,考慮到我們相對於英特爾的規模,這種合作的材料不多。因此,我們當然會按季度向利害關係人報告進度。正如 Jason 所提到的,一旦我們凍結 PDK 並透過客戶參與,希望我們能夠在兩者之間發布某種客戶公告。
Operator
Operator
Next one, Charlie Chan from Morgan Stanley.
下一位是摩根士丹利的陳查理。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
First of all, happy new year, and also truly congratulations for your partnership with Intel. I think this should be a win-win situation. But maybe we kind of come back with some details. First of all, it's the long-term profitability with this Intel partnership. So maybe Chi-Tung or Jason, so what was the kind of estimated kind of gross margin or IRR -- ROE compared to your own investments to be your fully owned investment? What would be the difference in terms of gross margin and ROE?
首先祝您新年快樂,也衷心恭喜您與英特爾的合作。我認為這應該是一個雙贏的局面。但也許我們會帶回來一些細節。首先,是與英特爾合作的長期獲利能力。那麼,也許是 Chi-Tung 或 Jason,那麼與您自己的投資相比,您的全資投資的估計毛利率或 IRR - ROE 是多少?毛利率和淨資產收益率有什麼區別?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
We agreed, I mean, both sides, not to touch upon these numbers because probably it's 3 years away. And again, the material impact for both companies are relatively different. But what we can say is all the questions you asked, we have internal pro forma or simulated numbers support our decision to go into this collaboration. And we do believe 12-nanometer is a multibillion-dollar market and currently is dominant by a few players. With the collaboration and the setup of the contribution from both sides, we think we can offer a very competitive technology 12-nanometer solutions at the Western footprint to our existing customers as well as our potential customers. So we do have high hope for this collaboration, including the P&L impact to UMC.
我的意思是,雙方都同意不要觸及這些數字,因為可能還需要 3 年。同樣,對兩家公司的實質影響也相對不同。但我們可以說的是,您提出的所有問題,我們都有內部預估或類比數位來支持我們進行此合作的決定。我們確實相信 12 奈米是一個價值數十億美元的市場,目前由少數參與者佔據主導地位。透過雙方的合作和貢獻,我們認為我們可以在西方市場為現有客戶以及潛在客戶提供極具競爭力的 12 奈米技術解決方案。所以我們對這次合作抱有很高的期望,包括對聯電的損益影響。
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Yes. And Charlie, first of all, happy new year to you too. I also like to add the background of this 12-nanometer cooperation is very much aligned to our growth strategy that we have set up to do 5 years or 5 or 6 years ago. Our growth strategy has always been to pursue a cost-effective capacity expansion and technology advancement, to continue our commitment to our customers while enlarging our addressable market and increase our market relevance.
是的。查理,首先也祝你新年快樂。我還想補充一點,這次 12 奈米合作的背景與我們 5 年或 5、6 年前製定的成長策略非常一致。我們的成長策略始終是追求具有成本效益的產能擴張和技術進步,繼續我們對客戶的承諾,同時擴大我們的目標市場並提高我們的市場相關性。
And so, as such, we have always been exploring potential collaboration to align with our strategic objectives. So this actually fits that very well, like you don't say, there's many benefit about this 12-nanometer collaboration. And so, we set up our goal and we will execute this. And we think at the end of the day, this will be a win-win-win scenario for our customers, Intel as well as ourselves.
因此,我們一直在探索潛在的合作,以符合我們的策略目標。所以這實際上非常適合,就像你沒有說的那樣,這種 12 奈米協作有很多好處。因此,我們設定了目標並將執行它。我們認為最終,這對我們的客戶、英特爾以及我們自己來說將是一個三贏的局面。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
So a follow-up to that question. So I think you seem to imply the business is not just exceeding customers' migration, right? It should be also some share gain in this 12-nanometer foundry business. So since you mentioned about a win-win-win, the customers use your industry peer, right? Would you be able to provide some key process? The reason I'm asking you is that, if you add a second source foundry, you probably need to spend some upfront cost for the mask, et cetera. How do you justify that customers to use your 12-nanometer as a second source?
那麼這個問題的後續行動。所以我認為你似乎在暗示業務不僅僅超過客戶的遷移,對吧?這也應該是12奈米代工業務的一些份額成長。那既然你提到了三贏,客戶就用你的同行,對嗎?能提供一下關鍵流程嗎?我問你的原因是,如果你增加第二個來源代工廠,你可能需要為掩模等花費一些前期成本。您如何證明客戶使用您的 12 奈米作為第二來源是合理的?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean, first of all, in our view, this 12-nanometer, it is a competitive solution. And not only that, from a market standpoint, it's a long-life node that address many high-growth markets, such as the mobile communications, infrastructure and networking. Now many of the products actually just count to the 12. So they're not necessary to be a second source product. So many of the product pipeline actually arrive at this time. So we are aligning our milestone with the end market demand.
嗯,我的意思是,首先,在我們看來,這個12奈米,它是一個有競爭力的解決方案。不僅如此,從市場的角度來看,它是一個長壽命節點,可以滿足許多高成長市場的需求,例如行動通訊、基礎設施和網路。現在很多產品其實只數到12。這麼多的產品管道實際上都是在這個時候到達的。因此,我們正在根據終端市場需求調整我們的里程碑。
Now from a competitive standpoint, this 12-nanometer process will be a comparable industrial standalone and utilize our (inaudible) process experience and foundry know-how and as well as the Intel FinFET transistor foundation. So I think we will provide a very compelling and competitive solution to the customer.
現在,從競爭的角度來看,這種 12 奈米製程將成為可比較的工業獨立工藝,並利用我們(聽不清楚)的製程經驗和代工技術以及英特爾 FinFET 電晶體基礎。所以我認為我們將為客戶提供一個非常引人注目且有競爭力的解決方案。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
And then also another question on this one. Yes, I'm wondering, you said before 2027 there is some (inaudible) demand. Would you use your current 14-nanometer capacity in Taiwan or convert them 20-nanometer to fulfill the demand before 2027?
然後還有關於這個的另一個問題。是的,我想知道,您說過 2027 年之前會有一些(聽不清楚)需求。您會使用台灣現有的 14 奈米產能還是將其轉換為 20 奈米以滿足 2027 年之前的需求?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
No, I mean, right now, we have to evaluate all options. We believe this is the best option for us, but in our primary (inaudible) implement for the 12-nanometer production, and we expect it will have required some conversion kits and limited new tools, which is going to be more efficient than we're producing in our facility. So overall, leveraging the equipment -- existing equipment will tremendously reduce the upfront investment for this project.
不,我的意思是,現在我們必須評估所有選項。我們相信這對我們來說是最好的選擇,但在我們用於12 奈米生產的主要(聽不清楚)實施中,我們預計它將需要一些轉換套件和有限的新工具,這將比我們更有效率。因此總的來說,利用設備—現有設備將大大減少該專案的前期投資。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
And lastly, just on this Intel partnership, right, just 2 kind of logistic question. So first of all, who will be in charge of the fab operation? I saw the news today, you suggest you will run the fab, but I feel like it could be pretty challenging. I'm not sure who's going to be in charge of operation. Can you answer this one?
最後,關於英特爾的合作關係,對吧,只有兩種邏輯問題。那麼首先,誰將負責晶圓廠的運作?我今天看到新聞,你建議你去經營晶圓廠,但我覺得這可能很有挑戰性。我不確定誰將負責營運。這個問題你能回答一下嗎?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
No. I mean, we have people that assist for the joint development on the profit development side. So yes, from operation, Intel will operate that facility.
不,我的意思是,我們有人員在利潤開發方面協助共同開發。所以,是的,從運營開始,英特爾將運營該設施。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Would that require additional government approval for this collaboration?
此次合作是否需要政府額外批准?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
We'll file all the filing for any regulatory requirement and we will comply to that.
我們將提交所有監管要求的文件,並且我們將遵守該要求。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
And switch gears to (inaudible) I mean the long-term (inaudible) is great, but back to near term. So Jason, do you think the fab utilization will have a second leg down this year? I noticed some of your customers' inventory days is running pretty low, right? So can you give us some kind of observation about the cycle recovery for this year, just quarterly [cadence]?
然後切換到(聽不清楚)我的意思是長期(聽不清楚)很好,但回到近期。 Jason,您認為今年晶圓廠利用率會出現第二次下降嗎?我注意到你們的一些客戶的庫存天數非常低,對吧?那麼您能否給我們一些關於今年周期復甦的觀察,只是季度[節奏]?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Yes. I kind of stated earlier, we're cautiously optimistic about it, the 2024. However, the visibility of 2024 is still relatively limited due to the macro uncertainties. The consumer spending, higher interest rates and inflationary pressure. So our customers remain very cautious even after the Q1 restocking that we have observed. So we're hanging in with our customers going through this turbulence. And meanwhile, our primary focus on '24 is we will continue to enhance the company's resilience to weather through this market turbulence and then embrace the market upturn. So I am cautiously optimistic about the upturn. But meanwhile, we will continue to focus on the company's resilience.
是的。我之前說過,我們對2024年持謹慎樂觀的態度。消費者支出、利率上升和通膨壓力。因此,即使在我們觀察到的第一季補貨之後,我們的客戶仍然非常謹慎。因此,我們將與客戶一起度過這場動盪。同時,我們24小時的首要關注點是我們將繼續增強公司抵禦市場動盪的能力,然後迎接市場的改善。所以我對經濟好轉持謹慎樂觀的態度。但同時,我們將繼續關注公司的韌性。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
The last question is a financial question to Chi-Tung. So now you have the 2024 CapEx guidance, you have the full year revenue forecast. Can you give us some update about your full year depreciation growth and also your full year gross margin guidance?
最後一個問題是 Chi-Tung 的財務問題。現在您已經有了 2024 年資本支出指導,也有了全年收入預測。您能否向我們提供有關全年折舊成長以及全年毛利率指引的最新資訊?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Well, the depreciation estimate for 2024 is about 20% higher than that of 2023. As I mentioned, 2023 was really a trough for recent depreciation curve. So the 2024 with 20% increase is probably back to the 2021 level.
嗯,2024 年的折舊估計比 2023 年高出約 20%。所以2024年成長20%很可能會回到2021年的水準。
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, I mean for the margin, we understand there is a softer market demand. So like I said, our focus is with relentless effort. And in the past year, as well as in 2024, we'll continue to improve our structural operability. And so our margin highly depends on the capacity utilization, like you know. We expect we'll gain market share in second half, which will lift our utilization rate as some of the new product will start ramping in the second half. However, we expect the depreciation expense like Chi-Tung said, will increase 20% year-over-year in 2024.
嗯,我的意思是就利潤而言,我們知道市場需求疲軟。正如我所說,我們的重點是堅持不懈的努力。在過去的一年,以及2024年,我們將繼續提高我們的結構可操作性。因此,如您所知,我們的利潤率很大程度上取決於產能利用率。我們預計下半年我們將獲得市場份額,這將提高我們的利用率,因為一些新產品將在下半年開始增加。不過,我們預計 2024 年折舊費用將年增 20%,正如 Chi-Tung 所說。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
So we don't really give the full year guidance in terms of margins. Of course, we have a goal for a very longer-term structural trend for our gross margin and not the 2024 gross margin guidance.
因此,我們並沒有真正給出全年利潤率指導。當然,我們的目標是毛利率的長期結構趨勢,而不是 2024 年毛利率指引。
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
Charlie Chan - Technology Analyst
So use the first quarter 30% as a benchmark, do you think full year can keep at the similar level?
那麼以第一季30%為基準,您認為全年能維持在類似水準嗎?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Again, we don't comment on the full year on margins I think as a long-term goal, right?
再說一次,我們不會對全年利潤率發表評論,我認為這是一個長期目標,對嗎?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Maybe I can share this with you then. We hope to stay around the midpoint of 2022 and 2023 gross margin numbers while continuing to add resilience to our profit margin.
也許那時我可以與你分享這件事。我們希望保持在 2022 年和 2023 年毛利率數字的中點左右,同時繼續增強利潤率的彈性。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
The structural gross margin target, not for 2024.
結構性毛利率目標,不是 2024 年。
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Yes.
是的。
Operator
Operator
Next one Szeho Ng, Renaissance.
下一位吳思豪,《文藝復興》。
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
I have a question on R&D. In Q4, the numbers edged up quite a bit. Is it due to the fact that we are starting to do the 12-nano R&D activities?
我有一個關於研發的問題。第四季度,數字小幅上升。是因為我們開始做12奈米的研發活動嗎?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Yes, of course. 12-nanometer is one of the key focus for our R&D activities. But there's also some year-end adjustments for R&D efforts. So I would say the overall R&D budget will continue to increase, but we will try to manage as a fixed number in terms of percentage of revenue.
是的當然。 12奈米是我們研發活動的重點之一。但研發工作也有一些年終調整。所以我想說整體研發預算將繼續增加,但我們會嘗試以佔收入的百分比來管理固定數字。
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
But can you share with us what would be the R&D run rate going into, let's say, '24 and '25?
但您能否與我們分享一下,假設 24 年和 25 年的研發運行率是多少?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Sorry, say that again, please?
抱歉,請再說一次好嗎?
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
The R&D run rate into 2024 and '25, can you share with us, let's say, as a percentage?
2024 年和 25 年的研發運行率,您能否與我們分享一下,比如說,百分比?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
I think the run rate will be similar to 2023.
我認為運行率將與 2023 年相似。
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
And second question regarding the cash dividend policy. Would that still be based on the payout?
第二個問題,關於現金分紅政策。這仍然是基於支付嗎?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
So as Jason mentioned, even though we may see a big CapEx in 2024, that will not affect our dividend policy. So we still intend to balance the payout ratio as well as the absolute dollar terms in terms of cash dividends.
因此,正如 Jason 所提到的,儘管我們可能會在 2024 年看到大量資本支出,但這不會影響我們的股利政策。因此,我們仍然打算平衡股利支付率以及現金股利方面的絕對美元金額。
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
And then last question regarding the partnership with Intel. Would the fab be targeting those customers serving the European and also the U.S. market primarily?
最後一個問題是關於與英特爾的合作關係。該晶圓廠的目標客戶是否主要是歐洲和美國市場?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
I mean the solution will be serving customer growth globally. So it's not limited to any market, no.
我的意思是該解決方案將服務於全球客戶的成長。所以它不限於任何市場,不。
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
It's a good Western footprint for the first time for UMC's perspective.
從聯華電子的角度來看,這是第一次在西方留下良好的足跡。
Szeho Ng - MD
Szeho Ng - MD
Would that be biased or focused more on the overseas market than the Asia side of the market?
這會不會有偏見或更關注海外市場而不是亞洲市場?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
We're serving the customer worldwide.
我們為全球客戶提供服務。
Operator
Operator
And the next question, Brett Simpson from Arete.
下一個問題是來自 Arete 的 Brett Simpson。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Most of my questions have been answered, but I had a follow-up on the FinFET partnership with Intel. I mean, I guess the 3 Intel fabs in question equates to about 60,000 wafers a month capacity. Is that the rough plan we're talking about as part of this partnership? And can you just help us with the math around the CapEx assumption to convert these fabs to your process?
我的大部分問題都已得到解答,但我對與英特爾的 FinFET 合作夥伴關係進行了跟進。我的意思是,我猜這 3 座英特爾晶圓廠的產能相當於每月約 6 萬片晶圓。這是我們正在討論的作為本次合作夥伴關係一部分的粗略計劃嗎?您能否幫助我們圍繞資本支出假設進行數學計算,將這些晶圓廠轉換為您的製程?
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Jason S. Wang - Co-President & Representative Director
Well, first of all, the capacity planning, it has subject to the customer engagement. So while we refrain where the project, the 12-nanometer where we develop in that location, but it doesn't mean that the capacity numbers. We're aligned with the customer and finalize the capacity size, but the size is actually available for us to plan that accordingly. For the CapEx, like I also mentioned earlier, primarily, we'll reuse the existing equipment that will be very limited, the new tools and also some of the conversion kits required of the CapEx but the CapEx number is relatively small, yes.
嗯,首先,容量規劃取決於客戶的參與度。因此,雖然我們克制項目在哪裡,我們在那個地方開發12奈米,但這並不意味著產能數字。我們與客戶保持一致並最終確定了容量大小,但實際上該大小可供我們進行相應的規劃。對於資本支出,就像我之前也提到的那樣,我們主要會重複使用非常有限的現有設備、新工具以及資本支出所需的一些轉換套件,但資本支出數量相對較小,是的。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
And is Intel taking any of the capacity for internal means as part of this agreement? And then is there any CHIPS Act funding -- does this qualify for any CHIPS Act funding going forward?
英特爾是否將任何內部手段的能力作為該協議的一部分?那麼是否有任何 CHIPS 法案資助——這是否有資格獲得未來的任何 CHIPS 法案資助?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
We cannot speak for Intel. I think they will make their own decision. As for us, we won't do that.
我們不能代表英特爾說話。我認為他們會做出自己的決定。至於我們,我們不會這樣做。
Operator
Operator
Next question is from Gokul Hariharan, JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
Gokul Hariharan - MD, Co-Head of Asia TMT Research, Head of Taiwan Equity Research & Senior Tech Analyst
I just had one question. So Chi-Tung you mentioned the CapEx will probably peak out this year, how should we think about depreciation going forward? I think you have this 20% bump in depreciation this year. Should we expect depreciation to continue to keep growing at this kind of pace into the next couple of years as well, or is it kind of largely kind of -- this is like the big jump in depreciation that we're going to see in 2024?
我只有一個問題。 Chi-Tung 您提到資本支出可能會在今年達到頂峰,我們應該如何考慮未來的折舊?我認為今年的折舊幅度會增加 20%。我們是否應該預期未來幾年折舊率將繼續以這種速度成長,或者在很大程度上是——這就像我們將在 2024 年看到的折舊大幅上漲?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Yes, we see a little bit delay impact from the peak of CapEx to depreciation. So we will probably see a peak of depreciation in year 2026, 2 years after that -- 2 years after 2024.
是的,我們看到從資本支出高峰到折舊有一點延遲影響。因此,我們可能會在 2026 年看到折舊高峰,即 2 年後,即 2024 年 2 年後。
Operator
Operator
The last question, Laura Chen from Citi.
最後一個問題是來自花旗銀行的 Laura Chen。
Chia Yi Chen - Research Analyst
Chia Yi Chen - Research Analyst
Just a follow-up on the Intel cooperation as well. Just wondering that based on your agreement with Intel, is there any like a license fee or IP transaction of the cooperation?
這也是英特爾合作的後續。只是想知道,根據你們與英特爾的協議,是否有類似許可費或IP交易的合作?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
No, there's not.
不,沒有。
Chia Yi Chen - Research Analyst
Chia Yi Chen - Research Analyst
And also, I know there's a lot of different kind of type and demand could adapt to 12-nanometers, but just wondering, do you have any priorities or your first generation of the FinFET ramp you are scheduling put into your first consideration right now?
而且,我知道有很多不同類型和需求可以適應 12 奈米,但只是想知道,您現在有什麼優先事項或您正在安排的第一代 FinFET 斜坡是您首先考慮的嗎?
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Chi-Tung Liu - CFO, Senior VP, Head of Corporate Governance & Company Secretary
Well, I mean, they are the customers that we're engaging with. So we will first finalize our discussion with the customer and then try to align with our development milestones. And then, hopefully, we can comfort the engagement. So we are at a very early stage of this joint development. And while we just announced it, we're already having a customer discussion, but we have not finalized it yet.
嗯,我的意思是,他們是我們正在接觸的客戶。因此,我們將首先完成與客戶的討論,然後嘗試與我們的開發里程碑保持一致。然後,希望我們能夠安撫這種參與。因此,我們正處於聯合開發的早期階段。雖然我們剛剛宣布了這一消息,但我們已經在與客戶進行討論,但尚未最終確定。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, we thank you for all your questions. That concludes today's Q&A session. And now I'll turn things over to UMC Head of IR for closing remarks.
女士們先生們,我們感謝你們提出的所有問題。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把事情交給 UMC IR 主管做總結發言。
Michael Lin
Michael Lin
Thank you for attending this conference today. We appreciate your questions. As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at www.umc.com. Have a good day.
感謝您參加今天的這次會議。我們感謝您的提問。與往常一樣,如果您有任何其他後續問題,請隨時透過 www.umc.com 聯絡 UMC。祝你有美好的一天。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for 4Q '23. Thank you for your participation in UMC's conference. There will be a webcast replay within 2 hours. Please visit www.umc.com under the Investors Events section. You may now disconnect. Thank you, and goodbye.
謝謝。女士們、先生們,我們 23 年第四季的會議到此結束。感謝您參加聯華電子的會議。 2小時內將進行網路直播重播。請造訪 www.umc.com 的「投資者活動」部分。您現在可以斷開連線。謝謝你,再見。