聯華電子 (UMC) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome everyone to UMC's 2018 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call.

歡迎大家參加聯華電子 2018 年第三季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) For your information, this conference call is now being broadcasted live over the Internet.

（操作員說明）供您參考，本次電話會議正在互聯網上進行現場直播。

Webcast replay will be available within an hour after the conference is finished.

網絡直播重播將在會議結束後一小時內提供。

Please visit our website, www.umc.com, under the Investor Relations, Investors, Events section.

請訪問我們的網站 www.umc.com，位於投資者關係、投資者、活動部分。

And now, I would like to introduce Mr. Michael Lin, Head of Investor Relations at UMC.

現在，我想介紹聯華電子投資者關係主管Michael Lin先生。

Mr. Lin, you may begin.

林先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and welcome to the UMC conference call for the third quarter of 2018.

謝謝大家，歡迎來到聯華電子 2018 年第三季度的電話會議。

I'm joined by Mr. Jason Wang, President of UMC; and Mr. Chitung Liu, the CFO of UMC.

UMC 總裁 Jason Wang 先生加入了我的行列；以及聯電首席財務官劉奇東先生。

In a moment, we will hear our CFO present the third quarter financial results, followed by our President's key message to address UMC's forecast and the fourth quarter 2018 guidance.

稍後，我們將聽到我們的首席財務官介紹第三季度的財務業績，然後是我們的總裁關於聯華電子的預測和 2018 年第四季度指導的關鍵信息。

Once our President and CFO complete their remarks, there will be a Q&A session.

一旦我們的總裁和首席財務官完成他們的發言，就會有一個問答環節。

UMC's quarterly financial reports are available at our website, www.umc.com, under the Investors Financial section.

UMC 的季度財務報告可在我們的網站 www.umc.com 的“投資者財務”部分下獲得。

During this conference, we will make forward-looking statements based on the management's current expectation and beliefs.

在本次會議期間，我們將根據管理層當前的預期和信念做出前瞻性陳述。

These forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks that may be beyond company's control.

這些前瞻性陳述受到許多風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，包括可能超出公司控制範圍的風險。

For these risks, please refer to UMC's filing with the SEC in the U.S. and the ROC securities authorities.

有關這些風險，請參閱聯電向美國 SEC 和中華民國證券當局提交的文件。

Now I would like to introduce UMC's CFO, Chitung -- Mr. Chitung Liu, to discuss our third quarter 2018 financial results.

現在我想介紹聯電的首席財務官Chitung——劉Chitung先生，討論我們2018年第三季度的財務業績。

Thank you, Michael.

謝謝你，邁克爾。

I'd like to go through the third quarter '18 investor conference presentation material, which can be downloaded from our website.

我想瀏覽一下 18 年第三季度投資者會議演示材料，可以從我們的網站下載。

Starting on Page 3, the third quarter of 2018 consolidated revenue was TWD 39.39 billion with gross margin at 17.6%.

從第 3 頁開始，2018 年第三季度綜合收入為 393.9 億新台幣，毛利率為 17.6%。

The net income attributable to the stockholder of the parent was TWD 1.72 billion, and the earnings per ordinary shares were TWD 0.14.

歸屬於母公司股東的淨利潤為17.2億新台幣，每股普通股收益為0.14新台幣。

So for the revenue of $39.3 billion is 1.4% quarter-over-quarter growth and also 4.4% year-over-year growth.

因此，393 億美元的收入環比增長 1.4%，同比增長 4.4%。

And this is also a record-high numbers in terms of quarterly revenue for UMC.

而這也是聯電季度營收創歷史新高的數字。

The utilization rate for the last quarter was 94% compared to 97% in the second quarter of 2018.

上一季度的利用率為 94%，而 2018 年第二季度為 97%。

Page 4. The third quarter income statement.

第 4 頁。第三季度損益表。

Other than 1.4% quarterly revenue growth, gross profit margin also extended slightly to 17.6% and grow 3.7% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 6.9 billion.

除了季度收入增長 1.4% 外，毛利率也小幅擴大至 17.6%，環比增長 3.7% 至 69 億新台幣。

And we issued employee stock program to our employee in the third quarter, which costs about TWD 500 million also additional expenses in the third quarter.

並且我們在第三季度向我們的員工發放了員工股票計劃，該計劃的成本約為 5 億新台幣，第三季度還有額外的費用。

And as a result, our operating expenses increased TWD 500 million also accordingly or 9.4% quarter-over-quarter to TWD 5.7 billion.

因此，我們的運營費用也相應增加了 5 億新台幣，環比增長 9.4% 至 57 億新台幣。

And operating income, including other operating income expenses is now about TWD 2.4 billion, a decline of 23.5% sequentially, and net nonoperating income in the third quarter was TWD 1.6 billion loss compared to the TWD 1 billion loss in the second quarter.

包括其他營業收入費用在內的營業收入現在約為24億新台幣，環比下降23.5%，第三季度淨營業外收入為16億新台幣，而第二季度為10億新台幣。

The main reason was the weak renminbi change -- exchange rate in the third quarter caused UMC to book an unrealized TWD 1 billion also ForEx loss in the third quarter.

主要原因是人民幣疲軟——第三季度的匯率導致聯電在第三季度錄得未實現的10億新台幣，同時外匯虧損。

And income tax estimated to be about TWD 632 million expenses in the third quarter.

第三季度所得稅估計約為6.32億新台幣。

So net-net, we are seeing about TWD 1.7 billion net income attributable to stockholder of the parent or an EPS of TWD 0.14 in third quarter compared to TWD 0.3 in the second quarter.

所以淨額，我們看到歸屬於母公司股東的淨收入約為 17 億新台幣，或第三季度每股收益為 0.14 新台幣，而第二季度為 0.3 新台幣。

On Page 5, for the first 3 quarters of the year, revenue grew 2.7% year-over-year to TWD 115 billion and gross profit rate was 15.8% or TWD 18.2 billion.

在第 5 頁，今年前 3 個季度的收入同比增長 2.7% 至 1150 億新台幣，毛利率為 15.8% 或 182 億新台幣。

And the operating income margin increased to 5.5% from 4.1% in the previous year to TWD 6.38 billion and EPS for the first 3 quarters has reached $0.73 per share compared to $0.64 in the first 3 quarters of 2017.

營業利潤率從去年的 4.1% 增至 5.5% 至 63.8 億新台幣，前 3 季度每股收益已達到 0.73 美元，而 2017 年前 3 季度為 0.64 美元。

On Page 6, our cash position has continued to pile up due to slower CapEx and the cash level has now reached TWD 81.5 billion.

在第 6 頁，由於資本支出放緩，我們的現金頭寸繼續增加，現金水平現已達到 815 億新台幣。

I think this is reason high numbers and for the stockholder equity numbers is now TWD 212 billion at the end of third quarter 2018.

我認為這是高數字的原因，因為截至 2018 年第三季度末，股東權益數字現在為 2120 億新台幣。

And on Page 7, we experienced some price increase for our average selling price in the third quarter by about 1% also and mainly due to the 8-inch wafer price increase.

在第 7 頁，我們在第三季度的平均售價也經歷了大約 1% 的價格上漲，這主要是由於 8 英寸晶圓價格上漲。

And on Page 8, our Asia revenue now is the largest portion of our sales breakdown, account for 52% of the total pie and U.S. now is 34%.

在第 8 頁，我們的亞洲收入現在是我們銷售細分的最大部分，佔總銷售額的 52%，美國現在是 34%。

On Page 9, the IDM and Fabless breakdown remain the same.

在第 9 頁，IDM 和 Fabless 細分保持不變。

And on Page 10, communication portion has come down to 43% compared to 47% in the previous quarter, which made up by computer and some other revenue contribution.

在第 10 頁，通信部分已從上一季度的 47% 下降到 43%，這由計算機和其他一些收入貢獻構成。

And on Page 11, our 14-nanometer revenue also has come to a record high of 5% in the single quarter, and 28-nanometer revenue at the same time declined to 13% compared to 15% in the previous quarter.

在第 11 頁，我們的 14 納米收入在單季度也達到了 5% 的歷史新高，同時 28 納米的收入從上一季度的 15% 下降到 13%。

On Page 12, we have prepared the quarterly capacity table for your reference.

在第 12 頁，我們準備了季度產能表供您參考。

We continue to see some capacity expansion in our Singapore and also Xiamen fabs.

我們繼續看到我們在新加坡和廈門工廠的產能擴張。

And on Page 13, our annual budget for CapEx remain unchanged around TWD 1.1 billion.

在第 13 頁，我們的年度資本支出預算保持不變，約為 11 億新台幣。

Of course, the actual number still depends on how the cash payment schedule is for the fourth quarter of the year.

當然，實際數字仍然取決於今年第四季度的現金支付時間表。

So the above is the summary of UMC results for third quarter 2018.

以上就是聯華電子2018年第三季度業績總結。

More details are available in the report, which can be -- has been posted on our website.

報告中提供了更多詳細信息，該報告可能已發佈在我們的網站上。

I will now turn the call over to President of UMC, Mr. Wang.

我現在將電話轉給聯電總裁王先生。

Thank you, Chitung.

謝謝你，赤東。

Good evening, everyone.

各位晚上好。

Here, I would like to update the third quarter operating results of UMC.

在這裡，我想更新聯電第三季度的經營業績。

In the third quarter, foundry revenue reached a record high, as Chitung mentioned, to TWD 39.33 billion (sic, see slide 4, TWD 39.39 billion), up 1.4% from second quarter '18.

正如 Chitung 所說，在第三季度，代工收入達到創紀錄的新高，達到 393.3 億新台幣（原文如此，見幻燈片 4，393.9 億新台幣），比 18 年第二季度增長 1.4%。

Foundry operating margin was 6.4% and utilization rate reached 94%, bringing wafer shipment to 1.8 million 8-inch equivalent wafers.

晶圓代工營業利潤率為 6.4%，利用率達到 94%，晶圓出貨量達到 180 萬片 8 英寸等效晶圓。

Loading across 8-inch and mature 12-inch technologies continued to operate at full capacity.

8 英寸和成熟的 12 英寸技術的加載繼續滿負荷運行。

Thus the company generated TWD 10.16 billion of free cash flow during the quarter.

因此，該公司在本季度產生了 101.6 億新台幣的自由現金流。

In addition, we saw an increase in computing-related applications, which offset a decline in the communications segment.

此外，我們看到與計算相關的應用有所增加，這抵消了通信領域的下滑。

From a longer-term perspective, we believe new and essential semiconductor components will continue to strengthen our specialty technology business.

從長遠來看，我們相信新的和必不可少的半導體組件將繼續加強我們的專業技術業務。

For example, Allegro MicroSystems, a leader in high-performance power and sensor solutions, signed a multi-year manufacturing agreement with UMC to ensure long-term capacity support for their growing wafer requirements in industrial and automotive segment.

例如，高性能電源和傳感器解決方案的領導者 Allegro MicroSystems 與 UMC 簽署了一項多年製造協議，以確保為其在工業和汽車領域不斷增長的晶圓需求提供長期產能支持。

Looking into the next quarter, we are seeing a softening of wafer demand from customers, partly due to a continued softness in the entry MEM smartphones.

展望下個季度，我們看到客戶的晶圓需求疲軟，部分原因是入門級 MEM 智能手機持續疲軟。

The recent escalation of the trade engine, rising global crude oil prices and continuous weakening of the emerging market currencies could further increase the uncertainties in the broader economy.

近期貿易引擎升級、全球原油價格上漲以及新興市場貨幣持續走弱，可能會進一步增加整體經濟的不確定性。

Meanwhile, we will continue to execute our strategy and invest in return-driven goals, while moderating the expansion of advanced technologies.

同時，我們將繼續執行我們的戰略並投資於回報驅動的目標，同時減緩先進技術的擴張。

We are confident that UMC's globalization efforts will increase our customers' competitive edge through geopolitical risk mitigation, while enhancing shareholder value to preserve the best interest of all our stakeholders.

我們相信聯華電子的全球化努力將通過緩解地緣政治風險來提高我們客戶的競爭優勢，同時提高股東價值以維護我們所有利益相關者的最佳利益。

That was our third quarter results.

那是我們第三季度的業績。

Now let me go over the fourth quarter of 2018 guidance.

現在讓我回顧一下 2018 年第四季度的指導。

Wafer shipments will show a decrease of 4% to 5% and ASP in U.S. dollar will show a decline of 4% to 5%.

晶圓出貨量將下降 4% 至 5%，美元 ASP 將下降 4% 至 5%。

Gross profit margin will be in the mid-teens percentage -- low teens percentage range and capacity utilization rate will be in the high 80% range.

毛利率將在 10% 左右——較低的 10% 百分比範圍和產能利用率將在 80% 的高位範圍內。

For foundry CapEx of 2018, it will be a USD 1.1 billion.

對於 2018 年的代工資本支出，將達到 11 億美元。

That concludes my comments.

我的評論到此結束。

Thank you all for your attention.

謝謝大家的關注。

Now we are ready for questions.

現在我們準備好提問了。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is coming from Bill Lu from UBS.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 UBS 的 Bill Lu。

First question is on your guidance for the fourth quarter.

第一個問題是關於你對第四季度的指導。

I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the sequential decline, where that is coming from in terms of applications and geometry?

我想知道您是否可以多談談連續下降，這在應用和幾何方面是從哪裡來的？

Well, for the wafer shipments, we anticipate about 4% to 5% decline, mainly coming out from the 28-nanometers.

好吧，對於晶圓出貨量，我們預計下降約 4% 至 5%，主要來自 28 納米。

If we look at from the application, we actually see, across the board, the weakness.

如果我們從應用程序來看，我們實際上會全面看到弱點。

The strong -- the most weakness will be coming from computers, and within the computers the cryptocurrency will be the area that we see -- the weakest area, and then followed by the consumer and communication.

強者——最弱點將來自計算機，而在計算機中，加密貨幣將是我們看到的領域——最薄弱的領域，然後是消費者和通信。

Great.

偉大的。

Now there is a lot of uncertainties, I think, for tech general.

我認為，對於科技巨頭來說，現在有很多不確定性。

When you speak to your customers, what are they telling you looking out into, for example, 1Q of next year?

當您與客戶交談時，他們會告訴您如何展望明年的第一季度？

Do you have any -- can you give us some hints as how 1Q is progressing?

你有什麼 - 你能給我們一些關於 1Q 進展情況的提示嗎？

I mean, Bill, we typically don't want to give up more than a quarter.

我的意思是，比爾，我們通常不想放棄超過四分之一。

But at this point, we do see the market uncertainty will continue beyond Q4.

但在這一點上，我們確實看到市場不確定性將持續到第四季度之後。

So we're going to be very cautious about outlook of the Q1 right now.

因此，我們現在將對第一季度的前景非常謹慎。

Okay.

好的。

My second question is on the gross margin.

我的第二個問題是關於毛利率的。

It looks to me like Q3 gross margin is a little bit better-than-expected, but the decline in Q4 is maybe a little bit sharper.

在我看來，第三季度的毛利率略好於預期，但第四季度的下降幅度可能會更大一些。

Can you talk about both?

你能談談兩者嗎？

Yes.

是的。

If we look at our Q4 composition, you'll find we actually generated about 5% revenue coming out from the 14, and the 14 give us much higher ASP.

如果我們查看我們的第四季度構成，您會發現我們實際上從 14 產生了大約 5% 的收入，而 14 給我們帶來了更高的 ASP。

So from the branded ASP point of view, we cited 8-inch -- price slightly increase of 8-inch.

所以從品牌ASP來看，我們引用8英寸——8英寸的價格略有上漲。

We actually see a much better ASP in Q3 so that actually give us a boost about a little bit on gross margin side.

實際上，我們在第三季度看到了更好的 ASP，因此實際上在毛利率方面給我們帶來了一點點提升。

And when we go into the Q4, given the uncertainty and the weakness in the cryptocurrency market, along with our limited customer base, so the 14 demand will be very volatile.

當我們進入第四季度時，鑑於加密貨幣市場的不確定性和疲軟，以及我們有限的客戶群，因此 14 的需求將非常不穩定。

So I will have to say the Q4 mainly the impact coming out in the cryptocurrency area of the 14-nanometers.

所以我不得不說第四季度主要是對 14 納米加密貨幣領域的影響。

Understood.

明白了。

Sorry, if I can ask one last question.

對不起，如果我可以問最後一個問題。

On your CapEx, you spent a little more than TWD 500 billion out of your total budget of TWD 1.1 billion.

在您的資本支出上，您在 11 億新台幣的總預算中花費了 5000 億新台幣。

Is there any reason to think that CapEx should reaccelerate in 4Q?

是否有理由認為資本支出應在第四季度重新加速？

We're still on schedule in terms of our budgeted CapEx.

就預算資本支出而言，我們仍在按計劃進行。

But this is not a big number in absolute dollar terms.

但以絕對美元計算，這並不是一個很大的數字。

So the real payment schedule sometimes could be moving forward or push out later.

因此，真正的付款時間表有時可能會提前或推遲。

So we think the number is -- in the ballpark is about right, but the actual payment and the detail of the month won't be confirmed until the end of the quarter.

所以我們認為這個數字是 - 大致上是正確的，但實際付款和當月的細節要到本季度末才能確認。

And next we'll have Randy Abrams from Crédit Suisse.

接下來我們將請來瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams。

I wanted to ask a question just about the 8-inch where you've seen full capacity and tightness.

我想問一個關於 8 英寸的問題，你已經看到了完整的容量和密封性。

Now factoring in the slowdown, if you could give a view how 8-inch, and also the mature nodes look, both in terms of full utilization and tightness continuing and plans, if that's the case, to continue to see capacity additions and price increases there?

現在考慮到經濟放緩，如果你能看到 8 英寸以及成熟節點的情況，無論是在充分利用和持續緊張方面，如果是這種情況，計劃繼續看到產能增加和價格上漲那裡？

Or if you're seeing any change in momentum on 8-inch?

或者，如果您看到 8 英寸的動量有任何變化？

Okay.

好的。

The -- for the 8-inch, we have to remain optimistic cautious about the 8-inch outlook.

- 對於 8 英寸，我們對 8 英寸的前景保持樂觀謹慎。

For our Q4 loading, we have pretty good confidence that we'll remain fully loaded in Q4 2018, mainly driving by some consumer segments of customer.

對於我們的第四季度負載，我們非常有信心在 2018 年第四季度保持滿載，主要是由一些消費者細分市場驅動。

And given we have a much broader and diverse customer base, we think we have a better chance to mitigate our 8-inch loading.

鑑於我們擁有更廣泛和多樣化的客戶群，我們認為我們有更好的機會來減輕我們的 8 英寸負載。

So in Q4, we still feel comfortable about the fully-loaded situation.

所以在第四季度，我們仍然對滿負荷的情況感到滿意。

Now the question for the pricing increase, some of the price increase is truly also coming from the product mix improvement.

現在是提價的問題，部分提價確實也來自於產品結構的改善。

And given the market's uncertainty and we need to keep that option open from mitigating the demand changes and I don't anticipate a significant pricing difference in Q4.

鑑於市場的不確定性，我們需要保持該選項不影響需求變化，我預計第四季度不會出現顯著的定價差異。

We probably see a fully loaded and with a pretty flat ASP projection in Q4 on 8-inch to date.

迄今為止，我們可能會在 8 英寸的第四季度看到一個滿載且相當平坦的 ASP 預測。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then if you could talk a little bit more about the advanced nodes.

然後，如果您能多談談高級節點。

On 40-nanometer with the decline, I'm curious how much you think is business environment and tied to smartphone versus if you're seeing any application migration from 40 to more advanced nodes like 28?

隨著 40 納米的下降，我很好奇您認為商業環境與智能手機的關聯程度與您是否看到任何應用程序從 40 到 28 等更高級節點的遷移？

And then also if you could talk about the 28 where it's declining, how you're seeing that also in the business environment versus just a decline in number of applications?

然後，如果你能談談它正在下降的 28 個地方，你如何看待商業環境中的這一點，而不是應用程序數量的下降？

I think in the past you had an issue from some of your high-volume customers switching strategy.

我認為過去您的一些大容量客戶轉換策略存在問題。

But just how's the outlook for 28?

但是28的前景如何？

How much is macro versus just issues with the products you're running?

您正在運行的產品的宏觀問題與僅問題有多少？

Well, okay, that's quite a bit of questions.

好吧，這是相當多的問題。

Let me first start off with your previous question about the mature 12-inch.

讓我先從您之前關於成熟 12 英寸的問題開始。

If we break it down the mature 12-inch on the 55, 65, and 90 area, we remain pretty confident about our loading situation going into Q4.

如果我們將其分解為 55、65 和 90 區域的成熟 12 英寸，我們對進入第四季度的裝載情況仍然非常有信心。

So that said, there's some called the 40-nanometers.

也就是說，有一些稱為 40 納米。

And we do see some decline on 40-nanometers and we see some product migration on 40-nanometer as well.

我們確實看到了 40 納米的一些下降，我們也看到了 40 納米的一些產品遷移。

But we do believe that 40-nanometer loading will be a temporary issue.

但我們確實相信 40 納米負載將是一個暫時的問題。

It will recover to our corporate average level in foreseeable future, but in near term we'll probably see some decline.

在可預見的未來，它將恢復到我們公司的平均水平，但在短期內，我們可能會看到一些下降。

The -- in terms -- where the softness is coming from, again, it's coming from the low-end MEM smartphone area as well as sound and node migration like the WiFi application, okay.

- 就 - 柔軟度的來源而言，它再次來自低端 MEM 智能手機領域以及 WiFi 應用程序等聲音和節點遷移，好吧。

As far as your question about the follow-on applications for 40s, we see a technology migration from consumer MCU high voltage, RF and connectivity product will migrate into the 40s.

至於您關於 40 年代後續應用的問題，我們看到消費 MCU 高壓、射頻和連接產品的技術遷移將遷移到 40 年代。

So there will be a continuous pipeline going into 40.

所以會有一個連續的管道進入 40。

That's also the reason we believe that 40 loading will recover back to the corporate average level.

這也是我們認為 40 裝載量將恢復到企業平均水平的原因。

So that's on the 40.

所以這是40號。

Let's go to the 28.

讓我們去28。

And on the higher level, we do see a worldwide demand of 28 will remain flat and the 28-nanometer may experience some of the overcapacity situation for the next years.

在更高的層面上，我們確實看到 28 納米的全球需求將保持平穩，而 28 納米可能會在未來幾年經歷一些產能過剩的情況。

And so that's the overall market situation.

這就是整體市場情況。

In the near term, our 28-nanometer technology business will become post to a more fragmented and small volume type of customer, which we reported in the previous conference call as well.

在短期內，我們的 28 納米技術業務將成為更加分散和小批量的客戶類型，我們在之前的電話會議中也報告了這一點。

And we see that more and more coming in the second wave is more of those fragmented -- it's more volume type of customer.

而且我們看到，越來越多的第二波浪潮中越來越多的是那些分散的——它是更多的客戶類型。

And this type of customer will require higher engineering efforts and take much longer to support and ramp.

而這種類型的客戶將需要更多的工程設計工作，並且需要更長的時間來支持和提升。

So that will make the UMC recovery appear probably prolonged, okay.

因此，這將使 UMC 的恢復看起來可能會延長，好吧。

So at the same time, we see that capacity oversupply situation in the next year.

所以與此同時，我們看到了明年產能過剩的局面。

But -- although the volume is probably lighter, we will continue to see many of our product tapeouts in our engagement today and also project in the next 12 months.

但是 - 儘管數量可能更輕，但我們將繼續在我們今天的參與中看到我們的許多產品流片，並在未來 12 個月內進行項目。

So over a longer period of time, I think, that will still help us get back to where we want to be, and I think it will also significant diversify our customer base as well.

因此，我認為，在更長的一段時間內，這仍將幫助我們回到我們想要的位置，而且我認為這也將使我們的客戶群顯著多樣化。

And so that's sort of what our look on the 28.

這就是我們對 28 號的看法。

I hope I covered all of your questions.

我希望我涵蓋了你所有的問題。

Yes.

是的。

That was great.

那很棒。

And just a quick follow-up to that.

只是對此的快速跟進。

I guess, with 40 and 28 loading coming down in the near term, the CapEx this year like, I think, you're confident to still get to close to $1.1 billion, but you added 5% more capacity.

我想，隨著短期內 40 和 28 的裝載量下降，我認為今年的資本支出仍然接近 11 億美元，但你增加了 5% 的容量。

So I guess, the initial view into next year would be lower capacity growth and lower CapEx.

所以我猜，對明年的初步看法將是較低的產能增長和較低的資本支出。

Or if you could share kind of how you're thinking at this stage on CapEx outlook?

或者，如果您可以分享一下您在現階段對資本支出前景的看法？

Yes.

是的。

I think next year the CapEx is on the downside.

我認為明年資本支出處於不利地位。

But again, I want to emphasize this $1.1 billion is already a pretty small number in absolute dollar terms.

但我想再次強調，以絕對美元計算，這 11 億美元已經是一個很小的數字。

And the magnitude of decrease will be limited next year.

明年下降幅度將有限。

We will report the numbers in the coming quarter -- quarterly conference call.

我們將在下一季度報告這些數字——季度電話會議。

But for the current year, again, it largely depends on the payment terms and payment schedules.

但就今年而言，這在很大程度上取決於付款條件和付款時間表。

And it will minorly alter the final number of this year's CapEx.

它將輕微改變今年資本支出的最終數字。

And next one is coming from Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

下一位來自里昂證券的 Sebastian Hou。

My first question is to follow on the 8-inch utilization rate.

我的第一個問題是8英寸的利用率。

So you just mentioned that's still fully loading in fourth quarter, but how about being selective on the product mix?

所以你剛剛提到第四季度仍處於滿負荷狀態，但是在產品組合上進行選擇怎麼樣？

Can you still be that selective right now in 4Q?

你現在還能在第四季度保持這種選擇性嗎？

Or are you actually resuming doing some low -- ASP low margin products?

或者你實際上是在繼續做一些低——ASP 低利潤的產品？

Well, I mean, the product mix will change in the Q4 as we're seeing some of the application actually see some weakness.

好吧，我的意思是，產品組合將在第四季度發生變化，因為我們看到一些應用程序實際上看到了一些弱點。

But given some broader customer base, we do have some other products to mitigate that, we mentioned just.

但考慮到一些更廣泛的客戶群，我們確實有一些其他產品可以緩解這種情況，我們剛才提到了。

And among all those customer base today is all selective customer and all selected product area.

在今天的所有這些客戶群中，都是選擇性客戶和所有選定的產品領域。

So we see very insignificant changes in terms of ASP level.

因此，我們看到 ASP 水平的變化非常微不足道。

Okay.

好的。

In terms of those segments that you see some weakness, are those specifically related to automotive and industrial?

就您認為存在弱點的細分市場而言，是與汽車和工業相關的細分市場嗎？

Are you talking about the weakness area or you actually just....

您是在談論弱點還是實際上只是....

Yes, yes, the weakness area.

是的，是的，弱點。

I see.

我懂了。

Well, actually across-the-board from consumer, communication and computer as well as automotive.

嗯，實際上是從消費者、通信和計算機到汽車的全面發展。

And to date, the computers seems is the weakest area.

迄今為止，計算機似乎是最薄弱的領域。

Okay.

好的。

I'm actually asking about the 8-inch, specifically.

我實際上是在問8英寸，特別是。

Right.

正確的。

And the -- on the 8-inch, the computer is weak.

而且——在 8 英寸上，計算機很弱。

Automotive is also weak.

汽車也很弱。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

But you can mitigate that by some consumer application.

但是您可以通過一些消費者應用程序來緩解這種情況。

Yes, that's right.

是的，這是正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And a second -- I'd like to also follow on that is I remember you had expansion planned in your Hejian fab in China.

第二個 - 我還想繼續說，我記得你計劃在中國的河間工廠進行擴張。

Then I just wonder, is that still on schedule?

然後我只是想知道，這仍然按計劃進行嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean, that's still on schedule.

我的意思是，這仍在按計劃進行。

And we still have confidence in terms of our 8-inch outlook.

而且我們對 8 英寸的前景仍然充滿信心。

So we'll be -- that is still ongoing.

所以我們會 - 這仍在進行中。

We anticipate about 2% increase for the year, overall on 8-inch, 2% on 8-inch capacity increase.

我們預計今年將增長約 2%，總體而言 8 英寸，8 英寸產能增長 2%。

For '19 -- 2019?

對於'19 - 2019？

2018, this year.

2018，今年。

Oh, 2018.

哦，2018年。

And, how about next year?

還有，明年怎麼樣？

Next year, we still have to find space for the expansion, but the space is very limited.

明年，我們還得尋找擴張的空間，但空間非常有限。

We don't see a whole lot of opportunity to increase the 8-inch capacity.

我們認為增加 8 英寸容量的機會並不多。

Oh, I remember that you had a plan to expand your Chinese 8-inch fab for next year.

哦，我記得你計劃明年擴建你的中國 8 英寸晶圓廠。

I remember, it is like 10-K capacity increase coming like some time second quarter or mid of next year.

我記得，就像明年第二季度或年中的某個時候會增加 10-K 的容量。

I'm asking, is that still on schedule?

我想問，這還按計劃進行嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's still on track, yes.

這仍然在軌道上，是的。

Right.

正確的。

So based on that, your 8-inch capacity will still increase next year because of the expansion there?

那麼基於此，你的8英寸產能明年還會因為那裡的擴張而增加嗎？

That's correct, yes.

沒錯，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

Can I ask about the -- your collaboration with the Fu-Chang Ching Huang government on the DRAM side?

我能問一下你在 DRAM 方面與 Fu-Chang Ching Huang 政府的合作嗎？

So any new update, progress on the pile around or mass production over there?

那麼有什麼新的更新，周圍堆的進展或那裡的量產嗎？

We cannot really comment on there.

我們無法對此發表評論。

This is really 2 different companies and the collaboration is rather limited to technology transfer only.

這實際上是 2 家不同的公司，合作僅限於技術轉讓。

So we are working on the final stage for the first generation we try to develop for Qin Wang company.

所以我們正在努力為秦王公司開發的第一代產品的最後階段。

So this is the latest status.

所以這是最新的狀態。

As for Qin Wang's status, we cannot comment on that.

至於秦王的身份，我們無法置評。

Okay.

好的。

So don't you say you're at the final stage in terms of your R&D contribution at the final stage?

所以你不是說你在最後階段的研發貢獻處於最後階段嗎？

For the first generation development, yes.

對於第一代開發，是的。

Development, which means that if you're at the final stage, which means that you will reach -- probably reach the production pretty soon?

開發，這意味著如果您處於最後階段，這意味著您將達到 - 可能很快就會達到生產？

Well, there will be time -- lead time or learning curve period in terms of technology versus initial production.

嗯，會有時間——就技術與初始生產而言，提前期或學習曲線期。

But again, we are in charge of this technology development part and production part is really up to Qin Wang.

但同樣，我們負責這個技術開發部分和生產部分真的取決於秦王。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And next question is on the, I think, in the past few quarters you have mentioned about the shortage spike on trains of the railway for materials, and how do you see that so far and going to 2019 in terms of the supply sources in terms of quantity and pricing?

下一個問題是，我認為，在過去的幾個季度中，您提到了鐵路列車的物資短缺高峰，您如何看待到目前為止以及到 2019 年的供應來源數量和價格？

We actually start seeing less of a price increase issue.

實際上，我們開始看到的價格上漲問題越來越少。

We more focus on the supply area and we are engaging with our suppliers for the long-term supply discussion.

我們更加關注供應領域，我們正在與供應商進行長期供應討論。

And I think, we -- the situation is more in control now.

而且我認為，我們 - 現在情況更加可控。

I won't say we're very safe now, but I think, it's much better, it's actually improved.

我不會說我們現在很安全，但我認為，它好多了，實際上已經改善了。

And this is from UMC's perspective and mainly due to the longer term -- longer-term contract we have entered with our supplier and we have no intention to comment on the general market situation for the wafer industry.

從聯電的角度來看，這主要是由於我們與供應商簽訂的長期合同，我們無意評論晶圓行業的總體市場情況。

Right, right, right.

對對對。

I'm just trying to understand whether there will continue to be some negative margin impacts on the price increase on the raw material into 2019 and '20?

我只是想了解 2019 年和 20 年原材料價格上漲是否會繼續對利潤率產生負面影響？

Would there be?

會有嗎？

Not at this point.

不是在這一點上。

We're actually seeing the pricing start saturating, as it is in our case, yes.

我們實際上看到定價開始飽和，就像我們的情況一樣，是的。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

Last question from me is regarding your Asia listing plan.

我的最後一個問題是關於你的亞洲上市計劃。

Is this on schedule given the very weak Asia market recently?

鑑於最近亞洲市場非常疲軟，這是否如期進行？

We don't have a schedule.

我們沒有時間表。

We just are doing all the filing and document preparation at this point.

我們現在只是在做所有的歸檔和文件準備。

So we are doing as quick as we can.

所以我們正在盡可能快地做。

It is a lengthy process.

這是一個漫長的過程。

So we are still filing and preparing all the document at this point.

因此，我們目前仍在歸檔和準備所有文件。

Right.

正確的。

In terms of a very rough timing, is it more possible sometime next year, but not this year, right?

就非常粗略的時間而言，明年某個時候更有可能，但今年不行，對吧？

It's really not up to us.

這真的不取決於我們。

I think all we do is once we have all the documents ready in the acceptable format, we will deliver or submit our application.

我認為我們所做的就是一旦我們以可接受的格式準備好所有文件，我們將交付或提交我們的申請。

And once we've done that, we will also make a popular announcement.

一旦我們這樣做了，我們還將發布一個受歡迎的公告。

And next question is coming from Roland Shu from Citigroup.

下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Roland Shu。

First question for your 4Q wafer shipment guidance.

關於第 4 季度晶圓出貨指導的第一個問題。

You said it will be kind of about 4% to 5% quarter-on-quarter and it will be many from the 28-nanometer.

你說這將是大約 4% 到 5% 的季度環比，而且會很多來自 28 納米。

So I just calculated so that means for 28-nanometer wafer shipment in 4Q probably will be declined by more than 50% from 3Q?

所以我只是計算了一下，這意味著4Q的28納米晶圓出貨量可能會比3Q下降50%以上？

And so the question is on your -- how is your 28-nanometer loading utilization now in 3Q and 4Q?

所以問題在於您的 - 您的 28 納米負載利用率現在在 3Q 和 4Q 中如何？

Well, first of all, we cannot endorse your 50% speculation.

好吧，首先，我們不能支持你 50% 的猜測。

The real numbers are less than that.

實際數字比這要少。

Our loading for 8-inch and mature 12-inch will stay fully loaded in the quarter -- fourth quarter this year.

我們對 8 英寸和成熟的 12 英寸的負載將在本季度——今年第四季度保持滿載。

And this is in the leading edge, including 28 and 14 will be below corporate average and given our guidance of high 80s in the Q4 for the whole company, I think, it might be quite easy for you to calculate the average loading for the NAND 4 part.

這是領先的，包括 28 和 14 將低於公司平均水平，鑑於我們在第四季度對整個公司的高 80 年代的指導，我認為，計算 NAND 的平均負載可能很容易4 部分。

Okay.

好的。

Yes.

是的。

For -- say [something] for this 12X the fab in Fujitsu.

對於 - 為這家 12X 的富士通晶圓廠說 [某事]。

So have you figured out how to rank up 12X capacity to 25k from our current 17k?

那麼您是否知道如何將容量從我們目前的 17k 提升 12 倍至 25k？

(foreign language)

（外語）

The 25k of economic skill level is always our target, but that's still subject to our demand outlooks and given the current demand outlooks, we're putting a part on the 17k, but we can reactivate that any time when we start seeing some demand changes.

25k 的經濟技能水平始終是我們的目標，但這仍取決於我們的需求前景，鑑於當前的需求前景，我們將部分放在 17k 上，但當我們開始看到一些需求變化時，我們可以隨時重新激活它.

Okay.

好的。

So there is no firm schedule, firm plan for the further expansion to 25k?

所以沒有確定的時間表，確定進一步擴展到25k的計劃？

Am I right?

我對嗎？

There is some scenario that we are currently to discuss.

我們目前正在討論一些場景。

There is no firm scenario yet.

目前還沒有確定的情況。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

Second question is for 14-nanometer now was the 5% of total revenue in 3Q.

第二個問題是 14 納米現在是第三季度總收入的 5%。

So would like to know how much revenue upside from 14-nanometer going forward given you are not investing in 14-nanometer anymore?

因此，如果您不再投資 14 納米，想知道未來 14 納米的收入增長多少？

Well, I kind of touched that earlier, and we have very limited customer base on the 14 and it is actually more associated with the cryptocurrency.

好吧，我之前有點接觸過，我們在 14 上的客戶群非常有限，它實際上與加密貨幣更相關。

And because the cryptocurrency market is some weakness, we actually see some of the declining on 14 in the upcoming quarters.

而且由於加密貨幣市場有些疲軟，我們實際上在接下來的幾個季度中看到了 14 日的一些下跌。

So at this point we have no plans for expanding our 14 capacity.

因此，目前我們沒有擴大 14 容量的計劃。

Although we have engaged many of the non-crypto 14-nanometer customers, and those customers will remain on track with production more into 2020, and by then we can see if we do need more additional capacity to grow the 14 business, but even at that time, we're still going to base on ROI and a business justification to do that and to pursue that.

儘管我們已經吸引了許多非加密 14 納米客戶，並且這些客戶將在 2020 年繼續生產更多產品，到那時我們可以看到我們是否確實需要更多額外的產能來發展 14 業務，但即使在到那時，我們仍將基於投資回報率和商業理由來做到這一點並追求這一點。

So that's kind of where we are on the 14.

這就是我們在 14 日的情況。

Okay.

好的。

For -- it sounds like in the near-term now you won't have the capacity expansion plan on 14-nanometer and also now you are seeing some demand weakness from your cryptocurrency customer on 14-nanometer.

因為 - 聽起來在短期內你不會有 14 納米的產能擴張計劃，而且現在你看到你的加密貨幣客戶對 14 納米的需求疲軟。

So the question is there any risk that you cannot run 28-nanometer mesh production in China if your 14-nanometer demand has been totally gone?

那麼問題是，如果您的 14 納米需求已經完全消失，您是否有無法在中國生產 28 納米網格的風險？

Will it be a risk for your 28-nanometer production in China?

這對你們在中國的 28 納米生產有風險嗎？

No.

不。

This is last year hit bottom production, which we did many quarters ago.

這是去年的產量觸底，我們在許多季度前就已經這樣做了。

You are allowed to do a minus-run technology in China, not to mention this is a proven 5% of revenue in the previous quarter.

你可以在中國做一個負數的技術，更不用說這是上一季度收入的 5%。

So there's no such risk.

所以不存在這樣的風險。

And the next question is coming from Szeho Ng from China Renaissance Securities.

下一個問題來自華興證券的 Szeho Ng。

Actually my question is on minority interest.

實際上我的問題是關於少數人的利益。

Sorry, can you speak a little bit louder.

對不起，你能不能大聲一點。

Can you hear me now?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

For minority interest it has been at a pretty high level for 2 consecutive quarters.

對於少數股權而言，它已連續兩個季度處於相當高的水平。

So just want to get your input on how to model it for Q4 and probably going into 2019?

所以只是想就如何為第四季度以及可能進入 2019 年的建模獲得您的意見？

You mean minority interest?

你是說少數股權？

Right, right, right.

對對對。

Okay.

好的。

That's mainly because our Xiamen Fab 12X is experiencing early-stage losses and we are currently -- recently increased our holding to 55% as a group.

這主要是因為我們的廈門 Fab 12X 正在經歷早期虧損，而我們目前 - 最近將我們的持股比例增加到 55%。

And 35% of the loss will be shared by our investor partners.

而 35% 的損失將由我們的投資夥伴分擔。

And that percentage is unlikely to change in the near term and the rest is up to the operating loss or profit, how to divide it over the -- through the minority share ownership.

而且這個百分比在短期內不太可能改變，其餘的取決於經營虧損或利潤，如何通過少數股權來劃分它。

So I would say the main focus is still how do we improve the operating result for our 12X operation in Xiamen.

所以我想說，我們在廈門的 12X 業務如何改善經營業績仍然是重點。

So we should expect the minority interest to hold up at current around $1.5 billion per quarter?

所以我們應該預計少數股權將維持在目前每季度約 15 億美元的水平？

Again, this percentage of 35% thanks to our Xiamen losses.

再次，這 35% 的百分比要歸功於我們在廈門的虧損。

So the 35% will become OpEx for the near term.

因此，這 35% 將在短期內成為運營支出。

The rest is really after the Xiamen losses.

剩下的真的是在廈門失利之後。

Okay.

好的。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

And second question on payout ratio.

第二個關於派息率的問題。

Would you consider to increase the payout ratio for next year going forward keeping the very strong free cash flow generation?

您是否會考慮提高明年的派息率，以保持非常強勁的自由現金流產生？

Yes, it's our intention to maintain at least the high payout ratio for our dividend, cash dividend payout.

是的，我們打算至少維持我們的股息、現金股息支付的高派息率。

For the last year our payout ratio was already 88% so it's a pretty high number.

去年我們的派息率已經是 88%，所以這是一個相當高的數字。

And of course, UMC will continue to stay at the high payout ratio from a dividend policy point of view.

當然，從股息政策的角度來看，聯電將繼續保持高派息率。

And next we'll have Gokul Hariharan from JP Morgan.

接下來我們將請摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan。

First of all, on gross margins, in Q4, could you talk a little bit about what are the drivers for gross margin going down to low teens given most of the weakness appears to be at 28 and mature 12-inch and 18 seems to be holding up quite well.

首先，關於毛利率，在第四季度，您能否談談毛利率下降到十幾歲以下的驅動因素是什麼，因為大多數弱點似乎是在 28 英寸和成熟的 12 英寸和 18 英寸似乎是保持得很好。

Is it primarily utilization or are there other factors that are driving the gross margin lower?

主要是利用率還是其他因素導致毛利率下降？

And I had one other follow-up question.

我還有另一個後續問題。

Well, I mean, it's a combination of the ASP and the loading because the (technical difficulty) 14 and 28 has shown weakness in demand.

好吧，我的意思是，它是 ASP 和加載的組合，因為（技術難度）14 和 28 已顯示需求疲軟。

So on a branded ASP point of view, it does affect that and given a lower blended ASP and the lighter loading that contributed gross margin impact.

因此，從品牌 ASP 的角度來看，它確實會影響這一點，並且考慮到較低的混合 ASP 和較輕的負載，這對毛利率產生了影響。

But even with the higher mix of 8-inch and mature 12-inch, it's not really helping on gross margins or is that how we should think about it?

但即使 8 英寸和成熟 12 英寸的混合比例更高，這對毛利率並沒有真正的幫助，還是我們應該這麼想？

Or are there changes in gross margin within the mature 12-inch and 8-inch process nodes as well?

或者成熟的 12 英寸和 8 英寸工藝節點的毛利率也有變化？

No.

不。

It's mainly coming out from the advanced node.

它主要來自高級節點。

Yes.

是的。

The sensitivity for ASP to our gross margin rate is about 0.6.

平均售價對我們的毛利率的敏感度約為 0.6。

So if we're seeing 4% to 5% drop in ASP that would suggest a 2 to 3 percentage point knockout in terms of gross margin.

因此，如果我們看到 ASP 下降 4% 到 5%，這意味著毛利率會下降 2 到 3 個百分點。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

That's very clear.

這很清楚。

Also, could you talk a little bit about how much of the confidence you have on the 8-inch process nodes staying relatively full going into, let's say, Q1.

此外，您能否談談您對 8 英寸工藝節點保持相對飽滿的信心，比如第一季度。

We are starting to hear a lot about automotive and industrial demand being weak.

我們開始聽到很多關於汽車和工業需求疲軟的消息。

I think, DI talking about demand weakness across the board.

我認為，DI 全面談論需求疲軟。

What do you see in terms of your backlog given that 8-inch demand was extremely tight in Q2 and probably early part of Q3 as well?

鑑於 8 英寸的需求在第二季度非常緊張，並且可能在第三季度的早期部分，您對您的積壓有什麼看法？

Well, you're right.

嗯，你是對的。

The market does definitely start seeing some softness in the 8-inch area and now the backlog's also lightened up.

市場確實開始在 8 英寸區域看到一些疲軟，現在積壓的訂單也有所減輕。

But for Q4, we do believe that we can remain fully utilized.

但對於第四季度，我們確實相信我們可以保持充分利用。

And for beyond Q4, we'll be a little bit cautious about that, given the uncertainty of the market.

考慮到市場的不確定性，在第四季度之後，我們會對此持謹慎態度。

Okay, understood.

好的，明白了。

Just one quick one.

只是一個快速的。

If we are putting a temporary hold on the CapEx expansion for 2018 in 12X fab, where will you focus the spending in 2019 on CapEx if you still think that CapEx is going to be lower than this year but not a lot lower.

如果我們暫時擱置 2018 年在 12X 晶圓廠的資本支出擴張，如果您仍然認為資本支出會低於今年但不會低很多，那麼您會將 2019 年的支出重點放在資本支出上。

Like if you were, take a hypothetical situation, you don't have any new capacity addition next year, where would be your maintenance CapEx be?

如果你是，假設情況，明年你沒有任何新的產能增加，你的維護資本支出會在哪裡？

We have about TWD 200 million plus in terms of maintenance CapEx per se and we will also invest in some 8-inch wafer capacity as we discussed earlier mainly in Hejian.

就維護資本支出本身而言，我們擁有約 2 億新台幣，我們還將投資一些 8 英寸晶圓產能，正如我們之前主要在河間討論的那樣。

Also, we will continue to increase our flexibility in terms of cross-technology capacity support to each other.

此外，我們將繼續在跨技術能力支持方面增加我們的靈活性。

This may not lead to capacity expansion, but it will significantly help our flexibility in terms of mitigate the certain node capacity up and down -- I mean, demand up and downs.

這可能不會導致容量擴展，但它將極大地幫助我們在減輕某些節點容量上下波動方面的靈活性——我的意思是，需求上下波動。

And lastly we continue to invest in small manufacturing AI-related type of efficiency enhancement for our overall capacity.

最後，我們繼續投資於小型製造業人工智能相關類型的效率提升，以提高我們的整體產能。

So that will -- that kind of program will also continue into 2019.

因此，這種計劃也將持續到 2019 年。

Okay, so is it fair to say maybe TWD 500 million, TWD 600 million is what your CapEx would be if we don't really spend incremental CapEx on 28 next year?

好吧，如果我們明年不真正在 28 日花費增量資本支出，你的資本支出可能是 5 億新台幣、6 億新台幣，這公平嗎？

Again, this number in semiconductor foundry space given our market share, I think, it's coming down to a pretty low number.

同樣，考慮到我們的市場份額，半導體代工領域的這個數字，我認為，它正在下降到一個相當低的數字。

And all the project has highlighted, and we will continue to invest in the parts, the full spectrum of technology for existing geometry.

並且所有項目都突出顯示，我們將繼續投資於零件，現有幾何的全方位技術。

And even though we are getting moderating in leading edge node, investment for capacity, but we will not stop, actually we will continue to accelerate for the parts of the technology for existing geometry.

儘管我們在前沿節點、容量投資方面正在放緩，但我們不會停止，實際上我們將繼續為現有幾何的部分技術加速。

So I cannot really give you numbers, but all I can say is, we will be very disciplined in terms of capacity expansion and the number of CapEx will be lower than this year for 2019.

所以我不能真正給你數字，但我只能說，我們將在產能擴張方面非常自律，2019 年資本支出的數量將低於今年。

(Operator Instructions) And the next question is coming from Sebastian Hou from CLSA.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 CLSA 的 Sebastian Hou。

I have 2 follow-ups.

我有 2 次跟進。

The first is the -- for Shandon.

第一個是-- 給Shandon。

In terms of depreciation, can you remind us about depreciation for this year, and also the initial outlook for next year?

在折舊方面，您能否提醒我們今年的折舊，以及明年的初步展望？

It's still the same schedule, so we are talking about flattish depreciation expenses for 2018 versus 2017.

它仍然是相同的時間表，所以我們談論的是 2018 年與 2017 年持平的折舊費用。

And we are seeing about 5% also year-over-year decrease in 2019 versus 2018 and followed by more decline in depreciation if we continue the current CapEx trend.

與 2018 年相比，我們看到 2019 年同比下降約 5%，如果我們繼續目前的資本支出趨勢，那麼折舊率將進一步下降。

And then how significant decline would that be in 2020?

那麼到 2020 年會有多顯著的下降呢？

Of course, eventually we will see more than double-digit decline.

當然，最終我們會看到超過兩位數的下降。

I mean, this is a long time spend for this kind of projection.

我的意思是，這種投影需要很長時間。

So let's stick to this year and also next year for now.

所以讓我們堅持今年和明年。

Okay.

好的。

And a second follow-up is in terms of the growth strategy.

第二個後續行動是在增長戰略方面。

Apart from the organic growth and noticed you also made an acquisition of Fujitsu Mie fab this year, how about the future M&A strategy?

除了有機增長，注意到你們今年還收購了富士通三重工廠，未來的併購策略如何？

And are you looking proactively on this -- on some potential acquisition opportunity?

您是否正在積極地關注這一點——尋找一些潛在的收購機會？

The answer is definitely yes.

答案肯定是肯定的。

That's always the option for future growth.

這始終是未來增長的選擇。

Our strategy is simple is, we're going to be focused on the legacy market and at the same time on the cost-effective path to expansion and the -- any potential acquisition will give us that option.

我們的策略很簡單，我們將專注於傳統市場，同時關注具有成本效益的擴張途徑，任何潛在的收購都將為我們提供這種選擇。

And so we'll continue considering that as well as other option as well so the acquisition is definitely part of it.

因此，我們將繼續考慮這一點以及其他選擇，因此收購肯定是其中的一部分。

So assuming if there is a target, is there the opportunity?

那麼假設有目標，有機會嗎？

That opportunity is not just to give you the low-cost or mature capacity, those will come with advanced capacity that's not making any profit.

這個機會不僅僅是為您提供低成本或成熟的產能，還包括沒有任何利潤的先進產能。

Will you still consider that?

你還會考慮嗎？

Well, there's many things to be consider and it depends what that justifies.

嗯，有很多事情需要考慮，這取決於什麼是合理的。

And so we're going to keep very disciplined with our policy on cash -- use of cash, and there's many different areas as long as we believe it will benefit our shareholders value and we will do so and different approach to it.

因此，我們將嚴格遵守我們的現金政策——現金的使用，只要我們相信這將有利於我們的股東價值，我們就會這樣做，並採取不同的方法。

Acquisition is one.

收購是其中之一。

Organic investing in capacity expansion also is one consideration, buying [treasury] stock back.

對產能擴張的有機投資也是考慮因素之一，回購[庫存]股票。

So we're going to consider all options and we're not ruling out what you mentioned, but it depends if that benefits our shareholders.

因此，我們將考慮所有選項，我們不排除您提到的內容，但這取決於這是否有利於我們的股東。

So with that kind of growth strategy in mind given that, I think, this is very -- could be some -- could be quite hard for -- if you don't know where and when this opportunity will come and will close a deal.

因此，考慮到這種增長戰略，我認為，如果你不知道這個機會會在何時何地到來並達成交易，這非常 - 可能是一些 - 可能非常困難.

So I know you also want to maximize the cash return to shareholders, but we probably will not see over 100% dividend payout in the near term given that you want to give yourself some - leave yourself with some flexibility for potential acquisition.

所以我知道你也想最大化股東的現金回報，但鑑於你想給自己一些，我們可能不會在短期內看到超過 100% 的股息支付——給自己留有一些潛在收購的靈活性。

Is that the right way to think about it?

這是正確的思考方式嗎？

Yes, well we're at the 88% payout ratio already.

是的，我們已經達到了 88% 的派息率。

So it won't increase that much even we increase the payout ratio to over 100%, say 120%.

因此，即使我們將派息率提高到 100% 以上，比如 120%，它也不會增加那麼多。

So it's not entirely impossible for UMC to have over 100% payout ratio.

所以聯華電子有超過100%的派息率並非完全不可能。

But what we do want do it on a consistent steady rate in terms of shareholder returns.

但我們確實希望在股東回報方面保持穩定的速度。

So this has very little correlations to the potential M&A if there's any.

因此，如果有的話，這與潛在的併購幾乎沒有關聯。

I'm sorry, I just have another follow-up because earlier I think you scoped the question, you mentioned about the beyond fourth quarter you will also cautious on the 8-inch outlook.

對不起，我只是有另一個跟進，因為早些時候我認為你已經確定了問題的範圍，你提到了第四季度以後你也會對 8 英寸的前景持謹慎態度。

So which means that you're less confident on the first quarter '19 8-inch being staying at 100% UTR?

那麼這意味著您對 19 年第一季度 8 英寸保持 100% UTR 的信心降低了嗎？

Well, we're optimistically cautious.

好吧，我們樂觀謹慎。

Let's put it this way because it's kind of thought out, and we do see indication of the market softness.

讓我們這樣說是因為這是經過深思熟慮的，我們確實看到了市場疲軟的跡象。

So we don't want to over commit ourselves by going into Q1 via the comments, but [couple mentioned assets] and I do want to give some kind of indication that we are cautiously looking into Q1 right now, yes.

因此，我們不想通過評論進入第一季度，但[夫婦提到資產] 我確實想給出某種跡象，表明我們現在正在謹慎地研究第一季度，是的。

And there seems no more questions at this point.

在這一點上似乎沒有更多的問題。

Thank you for all your questions.

謝謝你的所有問題。

That concludes today's Q&A session.

今天的問答環節到此結束。

I'd like to hand things over to UMC Head of IR for closing remarks.

我想把事情交給 UMC IR 負責人結束髮言。

Thank you, everyone, for attending this conference today.

謝謝大家，今天參加這個會議。

We appreciate your questions.

我們感謝您的提問。

As always, if you have any additional follow-up questions, please feel free to contact UMC at ir@umc.com.

與往常一樣，如果您有任何其他後續問題，請隨時通過 ir@umc.com 聯繫 UMC。

Have a good day.

祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for third quarter 2018.

女士們，先生們，我們 2018 年第三季度的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation in UMC's conference.

感謝您參加聯電的會議。

There will be a webcast replay within an hour.

將在一小時內進行網絡直播重播。

Please visit www.umc.com, under the Investors, Events section.

請訪問 www.umc.com 的“投資者、活動”部分。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。

Goodbye.

再見。