達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron second quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Vice President, Investor Relations, Mr. Dave Rosenberg. Please go ahead.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議轉交給東道主、投資者關係副總裁戴夫·羅森伯格 (Dave Rosenberg) 先生。請繼續。

Thanks Greg and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the investor relations section of our website.

謝謝格雷格，大家早安。在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.5 billion, up from $3.4 billion in last year's second quarter. During this year's second quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.54 per share compared to $1.46 per share in last year's second quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $320 million in the quarter compared to $242 million in the second quarter of 2023. With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

本季營收為 35 億美元，高於去年第二季的 34 億美元。今年第二季度，調整後的持續營運收入為每股 1.54 美元，而去年第二季為每股 1.46 美元。本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總額為 3.2 億美元，而 2023 年第二季為 2.42 億美元。

Thanks, David and good morning, everyone. Aviation had higher segment revenues of $1.5 billion, generating a profit of $195 million, up $24 million from the second quarter of 2023. We delivered 44 commercial turboprops, up from 37 last year, and 42 jets down from 44 in last year's second quarter, while aftermarket revenues grew 13%. Aviation continued to see strong demand across all product lines. Backlog ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up $118 million from the first quarter of this year.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。航空部門收入較高，為15 億美元，利潤為1.95 億美元，比2023 年第二季增加2,400 萬美元。式飛機，低於去年第二季的44 架。航空業所有產品線的需求仍然強勁。截至本季末，積壓訂單達 75 億美元，比今年第一季增加 1.18 億美元。

In the quarter, Aviation began deliveries of the King Air 260 under the multi-engine training systems contract for the US Navy. To date, we've been awarded 35 aircraft to a possible 64 on the program. Also during the quarter, Aviation certified a third variant of the Cessna SkyCourier. Combi version allows operators to transport passengers and cargo simultaneously.

本季度，Aviation 開始根據美國海軍的多引擎訓練系統合約交付空中國王 260。迄今為止，我們已獲得 35 架飛機，該計劃中可能有 64 架。同樣在本季度，航空認證了 Cessna SkyCourier 的第三種型號。 Combi 版本允許營運商同時運輸乘客和貨物。

Combined with the previously certified passenger and cargo variants, this latest variant continues to demonstrate the versatility of the aircraft to our customers. In June, Aviation completed the first flight of assessment, Citation Ascend. The aircraft is the first conforming production flight test aircraft and represents a significant milestone for the program. To date, we have completed over 400 hours of flight testing.

結合先前經過認證的客運和貨運型號，這款最新型號繼續向我們的客戶展示飛機的多功能性。 6月，航空完成了首次飛行評估，Citation Ascend。該飛機是第一架符合生產飛行測試要求的飛機，代表了該計劃的一個重要里程碑。到目前為止，我們已經完成了 400 多個小時的飛行測試。

At Bell, revenues and profit in the quarter were up as compared to the second quarter last year. On the commercial side, Bell delivered 32 helicopters, down from 35 in last year's second quarter. Moving to military, Bell completed the FLRAA preliminary design review, while also continuing to release engineering drawings and place orders for long-lead material as the program continues to ramp.

貝爾本季的營收和利潤比去年第二季有所成長。在商業方面，貝爾交付了 32 架直升機，低於去年第二季的 35 架。轉向軍事領域，貝爾完成了 FLRAA 初步設計審查，同時隨著專案的持續推進，繼續發布工程圖並訂購長週期材料。

In the quarter, Bell was down, selected as one of two companies for the next phase of DARPA's Speed and Runway Independent Technologies X-Plane program to create a prototype high-speed vertical take-off and landing aircraft for the US military.

本季度，貝爾公司被選為 DARPA 速度和跑道獨立技術 X-Plane 計劃下一階段的兩家公司之一，為美國軍方打造高速垂直起降飛機原型機。

This program builds on Bell's success as the leader in tiltrotor technology. Textron Systems realized higher revenues, will continue to pursue new program opportunities in the quarter. Systems was awarded options 3 and 4 for the FTUAS program in the second quarter. This award includes delivery of an Aerosonde Hybrid Quad System to the US Army for test evaluation.

該計劃建立在貝爾作為傾轉旋翼技術領導者的成功之上。德事隆系統公司實現了更高的收入，將在本季繼續尋求新的專案機會。 Systems 在第二季度獲得了 FTUAS 計劃的選項 3 和 4。該合約包括向美國陸軍交付航空探空儀混合四系統進行測試評估。

As part of the Army's Robotic Combat Vehicle competition, we announced a collaboration with Kodiak Robotics. Kodiak will integrate its industry-leading autonomous system into Textron System's purpose-built uncrewed military vehicle to demonstrate the autonomous operations later in 2024.

作為陸軍機器人戰車競賽的一部分，我們宣布與 Kodiak Robotics 合作。 Kodiak 將其領先業界的自主系統整合到德事隆系統的專用無人駕駛軍用車輛中，以在 2024 年稍後展示自主操作。

Moving to Industrial, we experienced lower revenues and operating profit in the quarter. As expected, we continue to see softer demand in our consumer and automotive end markets. We continue to execute on our cost reduction plan to position the cost structure for a lower volume environment. As a result, we saw sequential margin improvement in Q2 and expect to see this improvement in the second half of 2024.

轉向工業領域，我們本季的營收和營業利潤較低。正如預期的那樣，我們繼續看到消費者和汽車終端市場的需求疲軟。我們繼續執行成本削減計劃，以適應較低產量環境的成本結構。因此，我們在第二季度看到利潤率連續改善，並預計在 2024 年下半年看到這種改善。

Moving to Aviation. During the quarter, we completed the acquisition of Amazilia Aerospace. The Amazilia team has expertise in digital flight controls, flight guidance and vehicle management systems for manned and unmanned aircraft.

轉向航空。本季度，我們完成了對 Amazilia Aerospace 的收購。 Amazilia 團隊在有人和無人機的數位飛行控制、飛行引導和車輛管理系統方面擁有專業知識。

We plan on integrating the products and capabilities into our new platforms, such as the Nuuva and Surveyor. Nuuva program reached a significant milestone with the completion of vehicle on assembly. The prototype vehicle has underground testing, which supports anticipated hover flight later this year.

我們計劃將產品和功能整合到我們的新平台中，例如 Nuuva 和 Surveyor。隨著車輛組裝的完成，Nuuva 專案達到了一個重要的里程碑。該原型車已進行地下測試，支援預計在今年稍後進行的懸停飛行。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.5 billion were up $113 million from the second quarter of 2023, reflecting higher pricing of $57 million and higher volume and mix of $56 million. Segment profit was $195 million in the second quarter, up $24 million from a year ago due to higher volume and mix of $35 million and favorable pricing net of inflation of $22 million, partially offset by an unfavorable impact from performance of $33 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.5 billion, up $118 million from the first quarter.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。德事隆航空的營收為 15 億美元，較 2023 年第二季增加 1.13 億美元，反映出 5,700 萬美元的定價上漲以及 5,600 萬美元的銷售和組合增加。第二季的部門利潤為1.95 億美元，較上年同期成長2,400 萬美元，原因是3,500 萬美元的產量和組合增加以及扣除通貨膨脹後的有利定價2,200 萬美元，部分被3,300 萬美元業績的不利影響所抵消。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達到 75 億美元，比第一季增加 1.18 億美元。

Moving to Bell revenues were $794 million, up $93 million from last year, primarily due to higher military volume of $104 million as we continue to ramp the FLRAA program. Segment profit of $82 million was up $17 million from last year's second quarter largely due to a favorable impact from performance of $39 million, which included lower research and development costs, partially offset by mix. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.2 billion.

轉向貝爾的收入為 7.94 億美元，比去年增加了 9,300 萬美元，主要是由於我們繼續推進 FLRAA 計劃，軍費增加了 1.04 億美元。部門利潤為 8,200 萬美元，比去年第二季增加 1,700 萬美元，主要是由於 3,900 萬美元業績的有利影響，其中包括較低的研發成本，部分被混合所抵消。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 42 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $323 million, up $17 million from last year's second quarter largely due to higher volume of $14 million. Segment profit of $35 million was down $2 million from a year ago. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $1.7 billion. Industrial revenues were $914 million, down $112 million from last year's second quarter mainly due to lower volume and mix of $119 million. Segment profit of $42 million was down $37 million from the second quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix.

德事隆系統的營收為 3.23 億美元，比去年第二季增加 1,700 萬美元，主要是由於銷量增加了 1,400 萬美元。部門利潤為 3,500 萬美元，比去年同期減少 200 萬美元。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 17 億美元。工業收入為 9.14 億美元，比去年第二季減少 1.12 億美元，主要是因為銷售和組合減少 1.19 億美元。該部門利潤為 4,200 萬美元，較 2023 年第二季減少 3,700 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和產品組合下降。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $9 million, and segment loss was $18 million in the second quarter of 2024 compared to a segment loss of $12 million in the second quarter of 2023. Finance segment revenues were $12 million, and profit was $7 million. Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $17 million. Net interest expense for the Manufacturing group was $20 million. LIFO inventory provision was $27 million. Intangible asset amortization was $9 million.

2024 年第二季德事隆 eAviation 部門營收為 900 萬美元，部門虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季部門虧損為 1,200 萬美元。低於部門利潤。公司開支為 1700 萬美元。製造部門的淨利息支出為 2000 萬美元。後進先出庫存撥備 2700 萬美元。無形資產攤銷為900萬美元。

Special charges related to the previously announced restructuring were $13 million. And the non-service components of pension and postretirement income were $66 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 4.1 million shares, returning $358 million in cash to shareholders. Year to date, we have repurchased approximately 7.7 million shares, returning $675 million of cash to shareholders.

與先前宣布的重組相關的特殊費用為 1300 萬美元。退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,600 萬美元。本季度，我們回購了約 410 萬股股票，向股東返還了 3.58 億美元現金。今年迄今為止，我們已回購約 770 萬股股票，向股東返還 6.75 億美元現金。

That concludes from our prepared remarks. Greg, we can open the line for questions.

這是我們準備好的發言的結論。格雷格，我們可以開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Peter Arment, Baird. Please go ahead.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。請繼續。

Hey. Good morning, Scott and Frank, nice results. Scott, your booked-to-bill over one in aviation. Maybe you could just give us a little color on what you're seeing in the market environment and any color on pricing and what aftermarket also did in the quarter?

嘿。早安，史考特和弗蘭克，成果不錯。斯科特，您的航空預訂到帳單。也許您可以向我們介紹一下您在市場環境中所看到的情況以及定價以及售後市場在本季度的表現？

Sure, Peter. Yeah. Look, I think the end market continues to be robust. We're seeing strong demand in jets, turboprops. It's pretty much across all models and across the whole family of products, which is great. Strong response to a lot of the upgrades that we've done here recently in terms of existing models and obviously, we'll expect as we go at the back half of the year to see continued strength in new launches like the Ascend and such.

當然，彼得。是的。看，我認為終端市場持續強勁。我們看到對噴射機、渦輪螺旋槳飛機的強勁需求。它幾乎適用於所有型號和整個產品系列，這非常棒。我們最近在現有車型方面所做的許多升級反應強烈，顯然，我們預計今年下半年將看到 Ascend 等新產品的持續強勁表現。

So I would say, again, as much as we've seen for the last couple of years, we're still sort of targeting that one-to-one area, but robust demand, which is great aircraft are flying. So we continue to see strength in the service business as well, 13% is particularly strong in the quarter. But we feel good about where that's been performing. So again, across I think the whole portfolio, it's going pretty good in terms of the end market.

因此，我想說，正如我們過去幾年所看到的那樣，我們仍然以一對一的領域為目標，但需求強勁，這是偉大的飛機正在飛行。因此，我們繼續看到服務業務的強勁勢頭，本季 13% 尤其強勁。但我們對其表現感到滿意。因此，我認為整個投資組合在終端市場方面進展得相當不錯。

That's great. And then just a quick one for Frank. Your CapEx, I think you're $140 million for the first half of the year. I think your guidance is $425 million. So what -- are you coming in at a slower pace or than kind of the guidance or plans to step up? And outside of maybe FLRAA, what are the main drivers of the step-up?

那太棒了。接下來是法蘭克的快速發言。你的資本支出，我認為你今年上半年的資本支出為 1.4 億美元。我認為您的指導價是 4.25 億美元。那又怎樣──你的進度是否比指導或計畫慢一些？也許除了 FLRAA 之外，推動這項升級的主要驅動因素是什麼？

Well, we'll continue to see growth in the second half of the year, obviously, as reflected in those numbers we're a little slower in the first half than we expected. We tend to be a bit back-end loaded in CapEx, though. So we will see growth in the second half. There's probably a little opportunity in that kind of full year number given the pace, but for now, that's a number we'll stick with.

嗯，顯然，我們將在下半年繼續看到成長，正如這些數字所反映的那樣，我們上半年的成長速度比我們預期的要慢。不過，我們傾向於在資本支出方面進行一些後端負載。因此，我們將在下半年看到成長。考慮到速度，全年的數字可能有一點機會，但就目前而言，我們將堅持這個數字。

Appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

欣賞顏色。謝謝，夥計們。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks. Good morning. Scott, can you just give us an update on supply chain at both Aviation and Bell?

謝謝。早安.史考特，您能為我們介紹一下航空和貝爾供應鏈的最新情況嗎？

Sure, David. Look, it's still problematic. There's fewer problems probably than we used to have, but there are still parts that are from suppliers that continue to give us some heartache with late deliveries, and that does create some of these issues around flow in the factory and rework and [out-of-house] sequence kind of things.

當然，大衛。看看，還是有問題。問題可能比以前少了，但仍然有來自供應商的零件因延遲交貨而繼續給我們帶來一些心痛，這確實在工廠流程、返工和[out-of]中產生了一些問題。序列之類的事情。

But we've been managing through that unfortunately now for a number of years, it does continue to drag on our performance in the Aviation business and particularly, the performance numbers continue to see factory deficiencies that we would like to get resolved. But I think the team, all in all, is working through that. We're still able to drive higher revenue and higher profit margins.

但不幸的是，我們多年來一直在努力解決這個問題，它確實繼續拖累我們在航空業務中的業績，特別是，業績數據繼續看到我們希望解決的工廠缺陷。但我認為整個團隊正在努力解決這個問題。我們仍然能夠推動更高的收入和更高的利潤率。

So I think all in all, the business is performing well despite -- it's still a tough environment. I think you see most companies reporting and continue to see some challenges in the supply chain, still a lot of new people, a lot of training and efficiencies and things like that. But we're working our way through it.

因此，我認為總而言之，儘管環境仍然嚴峻，但該業務表現良好。我認為你看到大多數公司都報告並繼續看到供應鏈中的一些挑戰，仍然有很多新人，大量的培訓和效率等等。但我們正在努力解決這個問題。

Same thing at Bell. We have a number of deliveries that we missed, where we're missing some key components. But we're working with those suppliers. And as I said, a number of them are getting smaller, but in this industry, every part is important. So we're continuing to have to work our way around some late deliveries of parts coming in.

貝爾的情況也一樣。我們錯過了許多交付，缺少一些關鍵組件。但我們正在與這些供應商合作。正如我所說，其中一些正在變得越來越小，但在這個行業中，每個部分都很重要。因此，我們必須繼續努力解決一些延遲交付的零件問題。

But as I said, I think, all in all, our team's operational are fighting through that and get most of their deliveries done and continue to drive good margins. So we'll keep our heads down and keep fighting through that through the course of the year, I think.

但正如我所說，我認為，總而言之，我們團隊的營運部門正在努力解決這個問題，完成了大部分交付，並繼續推動良好的利潤率。因此，我認為，我們將在這一年中保持低調，並繼續努力解決這個問題。

Okay. Thanks for that. And your first half jet deliveries are relatively flat year over year. Are you still expecting higher jet deliveries for the year? And can you maybe comment on Latitude and specifically the deliveries were lighter year-over-year there, which was a bit surprising. Thanks.

好的。謝謝你。上半年飛機交付量與去年同期相比相對持平。您是否仍期待今年飛機交付量增加？您能否對 Latitude 發表評論，特別是那裡的交付量同比減少，這有點令人驚訝。謝謝。

Well, look, I think we'll -- we are still expecting to have higher unit deliveries in '24 than we had in '23. I would say, for sure, David, we're a little behind where we would like to be on a couple of these models. Latitude is one in particular where we had a few deliveries towards the end of the quarter that we didn't get out. They've now gone.

好吧，我想我們仍然預計 24 年的單位交付量將高於 23 年。我想說的是，大衛，我們在這幾個模型上確實有點落後於我們想要的水平。 Latitude 是一個特別的例子，我們在本季末有一些交付但沒有交付。他們現在已經走了。

But we're working those lines hard and addressing some of the issues. Latitude specifically had one item that we had to kind of manage our way through, and I do think we'll see improved performance on that line through the balance of the year. So the bottom line is that we will still -- we will have higher unit deliveries. And I think overall, good mix. And the performance of the business despite all that will show strong margin performance on a year-over-year basis.

但我們正在努力解決這些問題並解決一些問題。 Latitude 特別有一個項目是我們必須設法解決的，我確實認為我們會在今年剩餘的時間內看到該產品線的性能有所改善。因此，最重要的是，我們仍然會實現更高的單位交付量。我認為總體而言，很好的組合。儘管如此，該業務的業績仍將顯示出同比強勁的利潤率表現。

Great. Thanks very much.

偉大的。非常感謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Good morning, guys. Thank you so much. Scott, maybe to start on Aviation. Aviation profitability has been really good, [13.2%] in the quarter. I think 150 basis points of net price. So how do we think about the puts and takes as we go into the second half? And is this sort of low teens and new level for Aviation profitability?

早安，夥計們。太感謝了。史考特，也許可以從航空業開始。航空業獲利能力非常好，本季為 [13.2%]。我認為淨價150個基點。那麼，當我們進入下半場時，我們如何看待看跌期權和看跌期權？這是航空業獲利能力的新水平嗎？

Well, look, Sheila, I do think the team is performing well, right? I mean we've got revenues up, margin is up, backlog is up. So we feel pretty good about where the business is. As I said my answer to David's question, it's not always easy. We're still dealing with challenges in supply chain and things of that nature.

好吧，你看，希拉，我確實認為球隊表現不錯，對吧？我的意思是我們的收入增加了，利潤增加了，積壓的訂單也增加了。所以我們對業務的定位非常滿意。正如我對大衛問題的回答一樣，這並不總是那麼容易。我們仍在應對供應鏈和此類性質的挑戰。

But I do think that we'll see continued strong margins on a year-over-year basis as we go through the balance of the year. And again, we're feeling good about where the business is. I wish it was easier. It's not. But the guys are working through it.

但我確實認為，在今年餘下的時間裡，我們將看到年比持續強勁的利潤率。再說一遍，我們對業務狀況感到滿意。我希望事情能更容易。它不是。但人們正在努力解決這個問題。

And I do think that we'll see strong margins. I think we still feel good about our guide. We still think this is probably a $6 billion business this year. I think we'll be well within the guide on the margin front. As we said earlier in the year, I think the price inflation spread, you'll see that getting smaller as the year goes on. But again, I think that will be in part offset by the fact that we'll continue to drive better efficiencies and performance through the factory.

我確實認為我們會看到強勁的利潤率。我認為我們仍然對我們的導遊感覺良好。我們仍然認為今年這可能是一項價值 60 億美元的業務。我認為我們將在利潤率方面完全符合指南範圍內。正如我們今年早些時候所說，我認為價格通膨的蔓延，隨著時間的推移，你會發現它會變得越來越小。但我再次認為，我們將繼續透過工廠提高效率和績效，這一事實將部分抵消這一影響。

Great. And then maybe one on Bell and just the military portfolio there outside of FLRAA. How do you think about V-22 and opportunities there elsewhere in the military side?

偉大的。然後也許是貝爾的一個，以及 FLRAA 以外的軍事組合。您如何看待 V-22 以及軍事方面其他方面的機會？

So I think the balance of the military business outside of FLRAA is doing well, right? I mean we did add the H-1s from Nigeria, so that's 12 aircraft. We're able to start ramping that here this year. We saw some benefit of that in the quarter as that program starts to ramp up. V-22 production is still going along. Obviously, the five aircraft that were in FY24 have now been added. So we look at that is adding a little bit of base, we saw improvement.

所以我認為 FLRAA 以外的軍事業務平衡做得很好，對嗎？我的意思是我們確實添加了來自尼日利亞的 H-1，所以共有 12 架飛機。今年我們可以開始在這裡加大力度。隨著該計劃開始加速，我們在本季看到了一些好處。 V-22 的生產仍在進行中。顯然，2024 財年的五架飛機現已添加。所以我們看看增加了一點基礎，我們看到了改進。

Program continues to go. I think we'll see broader adaptation or acceptance of that here as we go into the future. So I think there's work going on in the FY25 budget and beyond that we'll provide some upgrade opportunities on V-22 as well as H-1, saw the announcements around SIEPU. So I do think while production unit volumes, obviously, will continue to ramp down, we will see some good flow of upgrade and modernization efforts on both the H-1 and the V-22 lines that will help to make that -- keep that solid as we start to ramp and really move towards the production mode of the FLRAA program.

計劃繼續進行。我認為，當我們走向未來時，我們會看到更廣泛的適應或接受。因此，我認為 25 財年預算中正在進行工作，除此之外，我們將在 V-22 和 H-1 上提供一些升級機會，看到了 SIEPU 的公告。因此，我確實認為，雖然生產單位數量顯然將繼續下降，但我們將看到H-1 和V-22 生產線的一些良好的升級和現代化工作流程，這將有助於實現這一目標- 保持這一點點當我們開始加速並真正邁向 FLRAA 計劃的生產模式時，一切都變得更加堅實。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering, Scott, if you could talk about the aftermarket growth. You mentioned 13%, which is pretty good acceleration given utilization is decelerating. Was there anything or is there anything that's driving that, whether that's non-typical on the military side or mandates or anything of that nature?

謝謝。早安.史考特，我想知道你是否可以談談售後市場的成長。您提到了 13%，考慮到利用率正在下降，這是相當不錯的加速。是否有什麼因素或有什麼因素在推動這一趨勢，無論是軍事方面的非典型現象、授權或任何類似性質的因素？

I think all in all, Myles, we're continuing to see good growth in the aftermarket business. Demand continues to be strong, aircrafts are flying. We did have a strong military quarter in particular as we build the spares pool around the METS Program for the Navy contract. But it's just, in general, strong on the aftermarket side. The demand is there. Again, people are flying. So consumption is up, people are doing shop visits. So I think we feel we're in a very good place in terms of the aftermarket overall.

我認為總而言之，邁爾斯，我們繼續看到售後市場業務的良好成長。需求持續強勁，飛機在飛翔。我們確實擁有強大的軍事基地，特別是當我們圍繞海軍合約的 METS 計劃建立備件庫時。但總的來說，它在售後市場方面表現強勁。需求就在那裡。再次，人們在飛翔。因此消費增加，人們開始逛商店。所以我認為我們覺得我們在售後市場整體上處於一個非常好的位置。

Okay. And then I guess on the performance disclosure, the $33 million drag. I know this can get a little bit apples-to-oranges comparison, but does that imply that performance actually deteriorated sequentially or didn't improve as much as you had in your baseline plan?

好的。然後我猜想業績披露會拖累 3300 萬美元。我知道這可以進行一些蘋果與橘子的比較，但這是否意味著性能實際上連續惡化，或者沒有像基準計劃中那樣提高那麼多？

Well, Myles, look, the performance category is a messy one as you know, right? So there's a lot of stuff in there. For sure, some of it is just some of those inefficiencies that we talked about, right? I mean we're still not at our standard cost where we would like to be. So part of that number for sure, reflects some manufacturing variance.

好吧，邁爾斯，你看，表演類別很混亂，你知道，對吧？所以裡面有很多東西。當然，其中一些只是我們談到的一些低效率的問題，對嗎？我的意思是，我們仍然沒有達到我們想要的標準成本。所以這個數字的一部分肯定反映了一些製造差異。

But as you know, there's also a lot of other stuff in there, right? I mean, the business continues to grow. So if you look at on a year-over-year basis, SG&A, IRAD, these numbers, which are in line on a percent of sales basis, but those actual dollar values on a year-over-year basis also go through that performance line. So there's natural growth in SG&A. There's natural growth in IRAD.

但正如你所知，裡面還有很多其他的東西，對吧？我的意思是，業務持續成長。因此，如果您逐年查看 SG&A、IRAD，這些數字與銷售額的百分比一致，但逐年計算的實際美元價值也會經歷該績效線。因此，SG&A 會自然成長。 IRAD 自然成長。

Look, there was a legal settlement in there this quarter. So there's always lots of $3 million, $4 million, $5 million things that go through there, most of which you would kind of expect in a business that's growing and continuing to invest.

看，本季度達成了法律和解。因此，那裡總是有很多價值 300 萬美元、400 萬美元、500 萬美元的東西，其中大部分是你在不斷成長和持續投資的企業中所期望的。

Okay, got it. Thanks so much.

好的，明白了。非常感謝。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning. Thank you. On the Ascend. You introduced the Ascend in EBACE. And I thought that was interesting. Europe's only about, I think, about 7% of Aviation revenues. How are you looking at international markets, particularly Europe, Asia? Do you see those for Aviation as potentially offering a bigger share of your total revenues?

早安.謝謝。在上升。您在 EBACE 中介紹了 Ascend。我認為這很有趣。我認為歐洲僅佔航空收入的 7% 左右。您如何看待國際市場，特別是歐洲、亞洲？您認為航空業務是否有可能在您的總收入中佔據更大的份額？

So Doug, I don't know if it will change dramatically that overall share of revenue. The jet business, obviously, has always been more North American-centric. South America has usually been our second biggest market. And Europe, third behind that. So specifically, as you look at Ascend, I think we'll see a similar spread of share, much as we saw over many years with the XLS family.

所以道格，我不知道這是否會顯著改變整體收入份額。顯然，噴射機業務一直更以北美為中心。南美洲通常是我們的第二大市場。歐洲則排名第三。因此，具體而言，當您查看 Ascend 時，我認為我們會看到類似的份額分佈，就像我們多年來在 XLS 系列中看到的那樣。

This really -- the Ascend in essence takes that historical product, which has been a home run for us, probably the most popular business jet in the world, and modernizes it, gives us great new cockpits, a little bit of thrust bump in the engine side, a much better cabin with a flat floor and larger windows. I mean, everything -- I think customers will love everything about that aircraft, from crews to passengers, performance.

這實際上——Ascend 本質上採用了這個歷史產品，它對我們來說是一個本壘打，可能是世界上最受歡迎的公務機，並對其進行了現代化改造，為我們提供了很棒的新駕駛艙，在飛機上增加了一點推力。我的意思是，一切——我認為客戶會喜歡這架飛機的一切，從機組人員到乘客，以及性能。

But I would expect we will see sort of the same kind of share because it really is the product that is hugely strong in that midsized business jet market. But that is still largely a North American market. And then secondarily, South American and then European. So I would expect we'll see that same kind of share position across all those key segments with the Ascend as we used to see with the XLS family.

但我預計我們會看到同樣的份額，因為它確實是中型公務機市場中非常強大的產品。但這主要仍然是北美市場。其次是南美，然後是歐洲。因此，我預計我們會在 Ascend 的所有關鍵細分市場中看到與 XLS 系列相同的份額。

And then on Sky Courier. I mean Sky Courier seems to be -- you're sort of expanding the envelope in which it can serve. How do you ultimately see that market in terms of scale? And how large could that -- the Sky Courier fleet, ultimately be?

然後是天空快遞。我的意思是，Sky Courier 似乎正在擴大它的服務範圍。您最終如何看待該市場的規模？天空信使機隊最終會有多大？

Well, I think it's going to be a very big market. I mean, if you look at the acceptance of that product, I mean, right now, we're just trying to make them as fast as we can make them. The demand has been really strong and I mean it's been great to see that we're servicing from the pure cargo version. I mean, this thing is a beast in terms of moving cargo around the world. We're seeing a lot of acceptance on sort of small regional airlines, 19 pax seating.

嗯，我認為這將是一個非常大的市場。我的意思是，如果你看看該產品的接受度，我的意思是，現在我們只是盡力盡快製造它們。需求非常強勁，我的意思是很高興看到我們透過純貨運版本提供服務。我的意思是，就在世界各地運輸貨物而言，這東西是一個野獸。我們看到很多小型支線航空公司（19 座）的接受程度。

And then obviously, what we did here most recently with the Combi is you have a lot of markets where they need to move pax, but they also need move cargo, and that's exactly what the Combi was aimed at. So right now, I think both domestic, international markets, cargo pax, now the combi, the issue for us with Sky Courier is just continue to ramp up the production volumes. The demand is there across all those segments in a lot of different geographies.

顯然，我們最近在 Combi 上所做的事情是，有很多市場需要運送乘客，但他們也需要運送貨物，而這正是 Combi 的目標。所以現在，我認為無論是國內、國際市場、貨運量，還是現在的組合，Sky Courier 面臨的問題就是繼續提高產量。許多不同地區的所有這些細分市場都存在需求。

Okay. Very good. Thank you.

好的。非常好。謝謝。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Hey. Thanks very much and good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the potential where the margin can go in the Industrial segment in the second half, kind of how much of the benefit of the cost-cutting program that you felt like we saw in the second quarter and how much is still on to come?

嘿。非常感謝，早安。我想知道您是否可以多談談下半年工業部門利潤率的潛力，您認為我們在下半年看到的成本削減計劃有多少好處季度以及還有多少？

Well, Seth, I mean I don't know if I'll give an exact number, but we certainly continue to -- we expect to see it continue to grow as we move through the year. We're not expecting a miraculous turnaround in the end market demand. We're watching that very closely. So if you look at the numbers Frank kind of went through, we've done about a third of the restructuring costs incurred here in Q2. We'll see another big chunk of that for the most part in the back half of this year as we continue to take cost out of the business to align with that volume.

好吧，塞斯，我的意思是，我不知道是否會給出一個確切的數字，但我們肯定會繼續下去——我們預計隨著這一年的推移，它會繼續增長。我們預期終端市場需求不會有奇蹟般的改善。我們正在非常密切地關注這一點。因此，如果你看看弗蘭克經歷過的數字，我們已經完成了第二季度發生的重組成本的大約三分之一。我們將在今年下半年看到另一大塊，因為我們將繼續從業務中削減成本以與該數量保持一致。

But I think when you look at that, it's probably going to generate -- we're probably still running 100 basis points or something below where we should be. And I think the cost actions that we're taking will square that away. So it's -- the strategy right now is keep taking the cost actions, don't assume that you see some miraculous turnaround in terms of that end consumer demand and just keep driving sequentially improved margins.

但我認為，當你看到這一點時，可能會產生——我們可能仍在運行 100 個基點或低於我們應該達到的水平。我認為我們正在採取的成本行動將解決這個問題。所以，現在的策略是繼續採取成本行動，不要假設你會看到最終消費者需求方面出現奇蹟般的轉變，而只是繼續推動利潤率的連續提高。

Okay. Great. And then maybe just as a quick follow-up, very good order activity year to date in Aviation. Is there anything you'd say to distinguish where the order activity is coming from with regard to either fleet customers versus individual customers?

好的。偉大的。然後也許只是快速跟進，今年迄今為止航空領域的訂單活動非常好。您有什麼話要說來區分車隊客戶和個人客戶的訂單活動來自哪裡嗎？

No, we're still seeing the spread is strong pretty much across all the customer base, both jet and turboprop. So it's pretty well across all characteristics about how you want to kind of sell of slice and dice. It's looking to be continually -- continued strong demand.

不，我們仍然看到幾乎所有客戶群（噴射機和渦輪螺旋槳飛機）的傳播都很強勁。因此，它很好地涵蓋了您想要如何銷售切片和骰子的所有特徵。預計需求將持續強勁。

Excellent. Well, thanks very much.

出色的。嗯，非常感謝。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. The business jet output just remains, I guess, low relative to how strong demand is and where the backlog is. Are lead times getting long enough that it's an issue for some customers and you're losing some sales on that? Or do you sort of just not care about that because you're managing to price, and the margins are good and you're okay on that front?

嘿。大家早安。我認為，相對於需求的強度和積壓情況，公務機的產量仍然較低。交貨時間是否變得足夠長，以至於對某些客戶來說是一個問題，並且您因此損失了一些銷售額？或者你只是不關心這一點，因為你正在設法定價，並且利潤率很高並且你在這方面還不錯？

Well, I mean I think largely, this is an industry phenomenon, right? I mean if you're out there, if you had a dramatically different lead time, you might be disadvantaged, but I think everybody is dealing with the same issue. So we're still out there. Obviously, with a book-to-bill above 1, we're selling, but we're delivering aircraft, but we're continue to take orders into that -- into those out years.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為很大程度上，這是一種行業現象，對嗎？我的意思是，如果你在那裡，如果你的交貨時間截然不同，你可能會處於不利地位，但我認為每個人都在處理同樣的問題。所以我們仍然在那裡。顯然，當訂單出貨比高於 1 時，我們正在銷售，但我們正在交付飛機，但我們將繼續接受訂單——在過去的幾年裡。

So it's -- I'd say right now, it's pretty well balanced. And I don't think we're at a competitive advantage or disadvantage right now in terms of availability. We're all out competing. But in the timeline, obviously, based on the backlog that's out there, 1.5 years, 2 years in many cases.

所以我現在想說的是，它非常平衡。我認為我們目前在可用性方面不具有競爭優勢或劣勢。我們都出去比賽了。但在時間表上，顯然，根據現有的積壓工作，1.5 年，很多情況下是 2 年。

Okay. The additional H-1 orders at Bell, can you speak to roughly what that adds annually and how far out in the future that will go?

好的。貝爾公司新增的 H-1 訂單，您能大致談談每年新增的數量以及未來的成長嗎？

No, I don't think so. No. I mean the Nigerian order was 12 aircrafts. The upgrade programs like SIEPU, that will go on for quite a number of years. But I mean, those aren't all appropriated. So I don't think I would get into to that.

不，我不這麼認為。不，我的意思是尼日利亞的訂單是 12 架飛機。像SIEPU這樣的升級計畫將持續很多年。但我的意思是，這些都沒有全部被挪用。所以我認為我不會涉及這一點。

The same, I would say, on the V-22 program, right? We think there's a nice improvement opportunities. There's a number of other things that are in dialogue with our V-22 customers on enhancements. Everybody knows that aircraft is going to be around for a very, very long time.

我想說，V-22 計畫也是如此，對吧？我們認為有很好的改進機會。我們正在與 V-22 客戶就增強功能進行對話，討論許多其他事項。每個人都知道飛機將會存在非常非常長的時間。

And so like any military platform, you would expect ongoing investment upgrades, enhancements. But these are all dialogues and programs that will flow over the year. So I don't think I would necessarily start to get into a multiyear forecast on those.

因此，與任何軍事平台一樣，您會期望持續的投資升級和增強。但這些都是今年將要進行的對話和計畫。所以我認為我不一定會開始對這些進行多年預測。

Okay. And then just last one. Does it make sense to walk through the math on the Shadow decommission just -- so that's modeled correctly? How much comes out? What does it do to the margins? Did that affect the second quarter? Any clarity you can provide there?

好的。然後就是最後一張。僅僅對影子退役進行數學計算是否有意義——這樣建模就正確了？出來多少？它對邊緣有什麼作用？這對第二季有影響嗎？您能在那裡提供任何說明嗎？

So look, I mean, from a modeling standpoint, Noah, this is about a $50 million business or something like that, right? So I mean we're -- we've already obviously worked our way through most of what the revenue is going to be this year as we wound down from Q1 to Q2. So I'd say, it's fairly de minimis as we go through the balance of the year.

所以，我的意思是，從建模的角度來看，諾亞，這大約是一項價值 5000 萬美元的業務或類似的業務，對吧？所以我的意思是，隨著我們從第一季到第二季的結束，我們顯然已經完成了今年的大部分收入。所以我想說，在我們度過今年餘下的時間裡，這是相當微不足道的。

Again, I think this is one where if you look at that team from our original guide absorbed that loss of the Shadow, which kind of came out of nowhere, obviously, from our perspective. And we've seen enough growth in all of the other business within systems to try to make up for that revenue and obviously, continue to hold a good margin business.

再說一次，我認為如果你從我們最初的指南中看到那個團隊吸收了影子的損失，那麼從我們的角度來看，這顯然是突然出現的。我們已經看到系統內所有其他業務都有足夠的成長，以試圖彌補該收入，並且顯然，繼續保持良好的利潤率業務。

So I think the team has largely got -- Shadow, unfortunately, is largely behind us, and the team managed their way through that and has positioned us to at least continue to operate the business well. And again, most importantly, probably in systems, focused on those new programs like the FTUAS, RCVs, the ARV, XM30. I mean there's a lot of stuff going on that business that has opportunity. But I would say largely, the way you model is we sort of have absorbed the loss of the Shadow program.

因此，我認為團隊已經在很大程度上得到了——不幸的是，Shadow 很大程度上落後於我們，並且團隊成功地解決了這個問題，並使我們至少能夠繼續良好地經營業務。再說一次，最重要的是，可能在系統方面，重點關注 FTUAS、RCV、ARV、XM30 等新專案。我的意思是，這項業務中有很多有機會的事情。但我想說，很大程度上，你建模的方式是我們已經吸收了影子計畫的損失。

Okay. Yeah, that looked mathematically up a little tough to do at least in the very near term. So yeah, that's impressive. Okay. Thank you.

好的。是的，從數學角度來看，至少在短期內這看起來有點困難。是的，這令人印象深刻。好的。謝謝。

Cai von Rumohr, Cowen & Company.

蔡馮魯莫爾 (Cai von Rumohr)，考恩公司 (Cowen & Company)。

Yes, thanks so much. So Scott, you guys have been kind of warning about margins, don't get ahead of yourself because the inefficiencies that we experienced in the second half of last year are going to flow through inventory into the P&L and that will restrain margins. It looks like that didn't really occur. I know though -- I know mix was a plus.

是的，非常感謝。所以史考特，你們一直在警告利潤率，不要超前，因為我們去年下半年經歷的低效率將透過庫存流入損益表，這將限制利潤率。看起來這並沒有真正發生。但我知道——我知道混合是一個優點。

And as presumably your efficiencies are improving, even if not as much as we'd hope, should we be looking for a good improvement in the second half from diminishing flow-through of kind of inefficiencies so that even though I assume the mix is negative given you've got more Latitude, but so you could basically sustain this 13% type margin?

據推測，你們的效率正在提高，即使沒有我們希望的那麼多，我們是否應該在下半年尋求良好的改進，減少低效率的流通，以便即使我認為混合是負面的假設你有更多的Latitude，但你基本上可以維持這13% 的類型利潤？

Well, look, I think that the 13% is extremely strong, right? I'm not sure I would say that we're going to maintain 13% as we go through the balance of the year. But I think it's going to be solidly in that sort of that mid-12s kind of range. So for sure, we will have some -- as I said earlier, probably less price inflation spread than we had. And part of that, frankly, is some mix. We do have a lot of Latitude deliveries, a number of which are heavy on the fractional side and particularly in Q3 as those have lower margin than a retail Latitude.

嗯，你看，我覺得這13%是非常強的，對吧？我不確定我是否會說在今年剩餘時間我們會保持 13%。但我認為它會穩定在 12 左右的範圍內。因此，可以肯定的是，正如我之前所說，我們將會有一些價格通膨的蔓延，可能會比我們之前的要小。坦白說，其中一部分是一些混合。我們確實有很多 Latitude 交付量，其中一些交付量很大，尤其是在第三季度，因為這些交付量的利潤率低於零售 Latitude。

So there's always some headwinds, but there's also good things that are going on. So I think this business is well within the guide that we put out there despite the ongoing inefficiencies. And at a mid-12% margin, we feel like this business is performing well, generating strong margin, generating good revenue growth, generating continued strong backlog. So I think the guide that we had out there, which I think we're clearly still on track to deliver shows that business is in a very good place.

所以總是會有一些逆風，但也有好事發生。因此，我認為這項業務完全符合我們發布的指南，儘管效率持續低下。以 12% 的中間利潤率來看，我們認為這項業務表現良好，產生了強勁的利潤率，產生了良好的收入成長，並產生了持續強勁的積壓。因此，我認為我們現有的指南（我認為我們顯然仍在按計劃交付）表明業務處於非常好的狀態。

Terrific. And then secondly, you continue to be aggressive, actually, even more aggressive in terms of share repurchase. You bought $358 million, 4.1 million shares. So you're basically walking away at a 5% rate. What should we expect in terms of the repo in the second half?

了不起。其次，你繼續積極進取，實際上，在股票回購方面甚至更加積極。您購買了 3.58 億美元，410 萬股股票。所以你基本上是以 5% 的利率離開的。對於下半年的回購我們該期待什麼？

I think we'll continue to focus on that repo, Cai. We're generating -- we're getting good strong cash flow. We feel very good about where the business is on a cash standpoint. But we did some small acquisitions of Amazilia, relatively small dollars, but add some real capability to the eAviation business. Frankly, technology will help us, not just in eAviation, but I think also at Textron Aviation as well as future opportunities at Bell. So -- but these are small dollars. Clearly, the bulk of the strong cash flow generation that we have right now were allocated to the buyback, and I think we'll continue to do that.

我認為我們將繼續關注該存儲庫，Cai。我們正在產生——我們正在獲得強勁的現金流。從現金角度來看，我們對業務狀況非常滿意。但我們對 Amazilia 進行了一些小額收購，收購金額相對較小，但為 eAviation 業務增加了一些真正的能力。坦白說，科技將幫助我們，不僅在 eAviation 方面，而且我認為在德事隆航空以及貝爾未來的機會也是如此。所以——但這些都是小錢。顯然，我們現在擁有的強勁現金流的大部分都分配給了回購，我認為我們將繼續這樣做。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Good, perfect. Yeah. Maybe just a couple of quick points. Could you do a bigger version of Sky Courier? Is there any demand for that from your customers?

很好，完美。是的。也許只是幾個要點。你能做一個更大版本的Sky Courier嗎？您的客戶對此有要求嗎？

I don't -- Ron, I don't know that we need to do a bigger version of it. It's a big aircraft, next to one of those guys. But I mean just from a regulatory standpoint, I mean, where it sits, first of all, fits really, really well in that short haul cargo market. Obviously, we work very closely with FedEx in particularly on designing that aircraft. So it was really designed to be in that LD3 container kind of space where it fits really, really well.

我不——羅恩，我不知道我們需要做一個更大的版本。這是一架大飛機，就在其中一個旁邊。但我的意思是，僅從監管的角度來看，我的意思是，它所處的位置首先非常非常適合短途貨運市場。顯然，我們與聯邦快遞密切合作，特別是在設計這架飛機方面。所以它確實被設計在 LD3 容器類型的空間中，非常非常適合。

And then on the pax side, from a regulatory standpoint, you hit that 19 pax line, and this thing comfortably takes care of 19 passengers. So I think to do anything bigger than that, now you start to step up into the ATR world and things like that.

然後在乘客方面，從監管的角度來看，你達到了 19 人排隊，而這個東西可以輕鬆地照顧 19 名乘客。所以我認為要做任何比這更大的事情，現在你開始進入 ATR 世界和類似的事情。

And I don't think that's really our space. I think where there was a huge gap in the market was really when you went from our Caravan, which obviously has been a home run in that smaller cargo and pax market and then up into that sort of light air transport kind of side. We felt like Sky Courier is in the sweet spot of that, so -- and we're seeing that from a market demand standpoint.

我不認為那真的是我們的空間。我認為市場上存在巨大差距的地方確實是當你從我們的大篷車出發時，這顯然是在較小的貨運和乘客市場上的本壘打，然後進入了那種輕型航空運輸領域。我們覺得 Sky Courier 處於最佳位置，所以——我們從市場需求的角度來看這一點。

Got it. And then on Aviation. How do I frame this? It seems like we're in a unique environment where -- I mean for you guys, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but everybody that you have no white-tails. Everything going down line is owned. Have you ever experienced that before, if that's okay?

知道了。然後是航空。我該如何建構這個框架？看來我們處於一個獨特的環境中——我的意思是對你們來說，我不想把話放在你們嘴裡，但大家都知道你們沒有白尾魚。下線的一切都是擁有的。你以前有過這樣的經驗嗎？

Well, I think you have to probably go back to 2007. We're going to be there. But look, this is a business, and we talked about this for years, right, Ron? This shouldn't be a white-tail business, right? I mean it wasn't, in most of its -- most of the history of business jets was not a white-tail business.

嗯，我想你可能得回到 2007 年。但你看，這是一門生意，我們已經討論了很多年了，對吧，羅恩？這不應該是白尾生意吧？我的意思是，在公務機的大部分歷史中，它都不是白尾業務。

I think what happened sort of financial crisis, post financial crisis wasn't how that business should operate. This business should operate off of a -- depending on the model types, anywhere from 12, 18 months to 2-year kind of a backlog. So that you know when an aircraft is rolling down that line, where it's going, and that's where we are, and I think that's where the industry should stay. And again, this is not a new idea, right? This is how this industry works for decades. And certainly, good to have it back where it's supposed to be.

我認為金融危機、金融危機後發生的事情並不是企業該如何運作的。該業務應該以 12、18 個月到 2 年的積壓狀態運營，具體取決於型號類型。這樣你就知道飛機何時沿著這條線滑行，它要去哪裡，那就是我們所處的位置，我認為這就是該行業應該停留的地方。再說一次，這不是一個新想法，對吧？這就是這個行業幾十年來的運作方式。當然，很高興讓它回到它應該在的地方。

Yeah. That's great. And then if I can, just one last quick one. Just curious. You mentioned that eAviation, some of the technology investments you might make inorganically could flow back to just broader Textron Aviation. Can you highlight anything that you're learning in that business that could actually help outside of eAviation, just broader Aviation?

是的。那太棒了。然後如果可以的話，就快點做最後一件事。只是好奇。您提到 eAviation，您可能無機地進行的一些技術投資可能會回流到更廣泛的德事隆航空。您能否強調一下您在該業務中學到的任何可以真正幫助 eAviation 之外（更廣泛的航空領域）的知識？

Sure. Look, the nature of what we're doing, particularly with unmanned things like Nuuva. And when you look at the levels of automation that we believe need to be in things like Nexus, these are very highly automated, fly-by-wire, digital flight control, almost autonomous. Even if there's not a person, even if there is a person in a cockpit like in the Nexus case, it's still, in essence, the capability of the aircraft is inherently autonomous.

當然。看，我們正在做的事情的本質，特別是像 Nuuva 這樣的無人飛行器。當你看到我們認為像 Nexus 這樣的東西需要達到的自動化水平時，你會發現它們是高度自動化的、電傳操縱的、數位飛行控制的，幾乎是自主的。即使沒有人，即使像 Nexus 那樣駕駛艙裡有一個人，從本質上講，飛機的能力仍然是本質上自主的。

So when you look at the Amazilia guys, this is area of expertise that they had. We've done this. We've done a lot of fly-by-wire on V-22, for instance. Obviously, the V-280's all fly-by-wire. The 525 is the first commercial helicopter in the world that is fly-by-wire.

所以當你看看 Amazilia 的人時，你會發現這是他們所擁有的專業知識領域。我們已經做到了這一點。例如，我們在 V-22 上進行了大量的電傳操縱。顯然，V-280 全部採用電傳操縱。 525 是世界上第一架電傳操縱的商用直升機。

So we have capability in the company to do this. But I think as we go forward, not just for these things like Nexus and like Nuuva, but future families of products or enhancements upgrades to products is going to see more and more levels of fly-by-wire, digital control, quasi-autonomous capability, but it needs to be at a much lower price point than what you've seen in these high-end, very expensive systems.

所以我們公司有能力做到這一點。但我認為，隨著我們的前進，不僅僅是像 Nexus 和 Nuuva 這樣的東西，未來的產品系列或產品的增強升級將會看到越來越多層次的電傳操縱、數位控制、準自主功能，但它的價格需要比您在這些高端、非常昂貴的系統中看到的低得多。

And so that's the technology that we're using, developing and working both through the acquisition and the implementation of things like Nuuva and Nexus are fundamental technologies that will, I believe, you'll start to see in the lower price point, both fixed-wing and rotorcraft markets in the future.

這就是我們透過收購和實施 Nuuva 和 Nexus 等基礎技術而使用、開發和工作的技術，我相信，您將開始在較低的價格點看到這些技術，兩者都是固定的-未來的翼機和旋翼機市場。

Okay, cool. Thank you very much.

好吧，酷。非常感謝。

Kristine Liwag, Morgan Stanley.

克莉絲汀‧利瓦格，摩根士丹利。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Scott and Frank, I mean the strength in Aviation is clear. Scott, you mentioned on Ron's question that, look, we're kind of almost back in that pre-financial crisis levels regarding the backlog. If you take out the performance headwind that you highlighted in the quarter, margins at Aviation would have been 15.5%. I mean this is also back at pre-financial crisis levels of margin. So I guess, when the performance headwinds tail off and the backlog continues to hold secure, is the mid-teens margin kind of the new normal in Aviation?

嘿。大家早安。史考特和法蘭克，我的意思是航空業的實力是顯而易見的。史考特，您在羅恩的問題中提到，看，我們在積壓方面幾乎回到了金融危機前的水平。如果剔除您在本季強調的業績逆風，航空業的利潤率為 15.5%。我的意思是，這也回到了金融危機前的利潤水準。所以我想，當業績逆風逐漸減弱並且積壓訂單繼續保持穩定時，十幾歲左右的利潤率是否會成為航空業的新常態？

Well, Kristine, I guess what I would say is, look, some of those performance items, for sure, are associated with these factory inefficiencies. And we do expect over time for those things to get better. As we get better supply chain deliveries, as our workforce becomes more seasoned again. So I do think there will continue to be underlying improvements going forward in those areas. But as I also said, some of these things around performance are also just fundamentally associated with the growth of the business, right? We are going to see more sales commissions when we have more sales.

好吧，克里斯汀，我想我想說的是，看，其中一些性能項目肯定與工廠效率低下有關。我們確實希望隨著時間的推移這些事情會變得更好。隨著我們獲得更好的供應鏈交付，隨著我們的員工再次變得更加經驗豐富。因此，我確實認為這些領域未來將繼續取得根本性的改進。但正如我也說過的，其中一些與績效相關的事情也與業務的成長有著根本的聯繫，對嗎？當我們的銷售額增加時，我們將看到更多的銷售佣金。

And we are going to see R&D, again, not necessarily a headwind from a percent of sales standpoint, but you're going to see higher R&D numbers as we continue to invest in the business. So look, I think the bottom-line answer to your question, Kristine, is we're not going to put a number out there right now. But clearly, over the last few years, we continue to see improvements in the margin performance of this business. And I think it's reasonable to expect that we'll continue to see that going forward.

我們將再次看到研發，從銷售百分比的角度來看不一定是逆風，但隨著我們繼續投資於業務，你將看到更高的研發數字。所以，克里斯汀，我認為你的問題的底線答案是我們現在不會公佈一個數字。但顯然，在過去幾年中，我們繼續看到該業務的利潤表現有所改善。我認為我們可以合理地預期我們將繼續看到這種情況的發展。

Thank you. That's really helpful context. And then maybe pivoting to a defense question. The European defense budget seems to be moving higher, a little faster and steeper than the US defense budget. I guess, how do you think about opportunities for European sales? It hasn't been a huge part of your portfolio historically. But with the leverage of the business pretty low, what's also your interest in expanding European capabilities, either organically or inorganically?

謝謝。這確實是很有幫助的背景。然後也許會轉向防守問題。歐洲國防預算似乎比美國國防預算更高、更快、更陡。我想，您如何看待歐洲銷售的機會？從歷史上看，它並不是你投資組合的重要組成部分。但由於該業務的槓桿率相當低，您對有機或無機擴展歐洲能力的興趣是什麼？

Well, I mean we do have a number of sales campaigns that go on in Europe. It's not -- as you noted, has not been a huge part of our business in the past. I do think, as you look at FLRAA military sales opportunity, things like the FLRAA program, clearly, that's a big part of where the Army is focused, is looking at partner countries around the world. And just as we saw for many, many decades, things like the Black Hawk become really important parts of those businesses from an international sales perspective, including Europe. We obviously will expect that to happen over time.

嗯，我的意思是我們確實在歐洲開展了許多銷售活動。正如您所指出的，它過去並不是我們業務的重要組成部分。我確實認為，當你看到 FLRAA 軍事銷售機會時，像 FLRAA 計劃這樣的事情，顯然是陸軍關注的一個重要部分，正在尋找世界各地的伙伴國家。正如我們幾十年來所看到的那樣，從包括歐洲在內的國際銷售角度來看，像黑鷹這樣的產品已成為這些業務的重要組成部分。我們顯然會期望隨著時間的推移這種情況會發生。

There's also some organic things. So again, if you look at rotorcraft again, I guess, right now, we did announce sort of a teaming relationship with Leonardo around pursuit of the European next-generation rotorcraft opportunity. So that's kind of organic, but that would be a product that's tailored to that European market. So I do think there are opportunities out there, and we are pursuing those, and we'll compete for those going forward.

還有一些有機的東西。所以，如果你再看看旋翼機，我想，現在我們確實宣布了與李奧納多建立某種合作關係，以追求歐洲下一代旋翼機的機會。所以這是一種有機的產品，但那將是一款針對歐洲市場量身訂製的產品。所以我確實認為那裡有機會，我們正在追求這些機會，並且我們將在未來爭取這些機會。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

George Shapiro, Shapiro Research.

喬治·夏皮羅，夏皮羅研究。

Good morning. Scott, the year-to-date orders have been about $3 billion in Aviation, about the same as last year's first half. You think you can reach the $1.86 billion of orders that you had in last year's third quarter, which was particularly strong?

早安. Scott，今年迄今航空領域的訂單金額約為 30 億美元，與去年上半年大致相同。您認為您能達到去年第三季特別強勁的 18.6 億美元訂單嗎？

George, I don't know. I mean, we're -- as we kind of guided, we think this is going to end up as a one-to-one year. That's still our view. So if you look at order activities last year, they were stronger than that. But I do think we're -- again, our expectation is we're in sort of a more normalized world here where one-to-one is a good book-to-bill target. We are coming through the first half of the year strong, which is great. I mean I'd love to see that continue, obviously. But I don't think necessarily $1.6 billion a quarter is probably pretty sporty.

喬治，我不知道。我的意思是，按照我們的指導，我們認為這將是一對一的一年。這仍然是我們的觀點。因此，如果你看看去年的訂單活動，你會發現它們比去年更強勁。但我確實認為我們——再次，我們的期望是我們處於一個更加正常化的世界，其中一對一是一個很好的圖書到帳單目標。今年上半年我們表現強勁，很棒。我的意思是，顯然我很樂意看到這種情況繼續下去。但我認為每季 16 億美元不一定是相當有活力的。

Okay. And then maybe one for you, Frank, that inventories year to date are up like $467 million, obviously less in the second quarter with better deliveries, but still up to $110 million in the second quarter. I mean, for the end of the year, do you expect that inventory level to come down to close to where it was at the end of last year or were going to stay a couple of hundred million above it? Thanks.

好的。弗蘭克，也許對你來說，今年迄今為止的庫存增加了 4.67 億美元，第二季度的庫存明顯減少，交付量有所增加，但第二季度的庫存仍高達 1.1 億美元。我的意思是，到今年年底，您預計庫存水平會下降到接近去年年底的水平，還是會保持在高出幾億的水平？謝謝。

Well, we'll certainly expect to liquidate inventory in the back half of the year. But in order to kind of grow the business for next year, we need inventory in order to sell products. So we expect we'll see some inventory growth on a year-over-year basis at year end, but not at the levels you've seen to date.

嗯，我們肯定會期望在今年下半年清理庫存。但為了明年的業務成長，我們需要庫存來銷售產品。因此，我們預計年底庫存會出現一些同比增長，但不會達到迄今為止的水平。

I'd say overall, obviously, that offsets from working capital in other areas. So we think working capital is kind of flattish type number for the year. But obviously, there are offsets and payables and other things associated with that, but we do need some inventory growth in order to grow the business.

我想說，顯然，總體而言，這抵消了其他領域的營運資金。因此，我們認為今年的營運資金數字比較穩定。但顯然，有抵銷、應付帳款和其他與之相關的事情，但我們確實需要一些庫存成長才能發展業務。

And one last one. In Industrial, in the first quarter, you pretty much said was primarily weak because of special vehicles. This quarter, you kind of said, we didn't say that. So do we assume that both Kautex and special vehicles were relatively weak in this quarter?

還有最後一張。在工業領域，第一季度，您幾乎說主要是由於特種車輛的疲軟。這個季度，你說的是，我們沒有這麼說。那麼我們是否可以假設考特斯和特種車輛在本季都相對疲軟？

Well, Kautex was down on a year-over-year basis, but it wasn't particularly weak. It was just -- we had a very strong second quarter last year, frankly, both in specialized vehicles and Kautex. So you had a really tough compare from both a volume standpoint as well as a margin standpoint. But Kautex on a sequential basis was up quarter over quarter, but it was down a bit on a year-over-year basis. But specialized vehicle was down kind of more on a year-over-year basis, coming off a very strong second quarter last year.

考特斯的業績年減，但並不是特別疲軟。坦白說，去年第二季我們在專用車輛和考特斯方面都表現強勁。因此，從銷量和利潤的角度來看，您都進行了非常艱難的比較。但考特斯環比成長，但年比略有下降。但特種車輛較去年同期下降幅度更大，去年第二季表現強勁。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

Pete Skibitski，Alembic Global。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Scott, as we think about some of the softness in the consumer that you're experiencing at TSV, maybe to your Kautex comments as well, less so. But you guys aren't seeing that extend to any of your Aviation customers at all?

嘿。早安，夥計們。斯科特，當我們考慮到您在 TSV 所經歷的消費者的一些軟弱情緒時，也許您對考特斯的評論也是如此，但情況並非如此。但你們根本沒有看到這種情況延伸到你們的任何航空客戶嗎？

And not even on the Piston or the turboprops. I'm asking in particular because it seems like deliveries on your lighter jets, that aviation, that Citation in the first half were a little bit lighter year over year versus the larger jets. So I just want to understand how you're seeing the health of your customers there. Obviously, the bigger balance sheets, but I just want to get a sense.

甚至在活塞或渦輪螺旋槳飛機上也不行。我之所以特別問這個問題，是因為與大型噴射機相比，上半年你們的輕型噴射機、航空業、獎狀的交付量似乎比去年同期要少一些。所以我只想了解您如何看待那裡客戶的健康狀況。顯然，資產負債表更大，但我只是想了解一下。

Yeah, Pete. I'd say when you look at our lighter aircraft, I mean, M2, CJ3, CJ4, we're seeing strong demand. So book-to-bill on those guys is good. Even Pistons, I mean, for the most part, we're just trying to make them faster, right? I mean, the Piston aircraft training demand remains very high, right?

是的，皮特。我想說，當你看看我們的輕型飛機時，我的意思是，M2、CJ3、CJ4，我們看到了強烈的需求。因此，對這些人來說，按訂單出貨是件好事。我的意思是，即使是活塞隊，在大多數情況下，我們也只是想讓他們更快，對吧？我的意思是，活塞飛機的訓練需求仍然非常高，對嗎？

It's very hard to find a 172 anywhere. So I think the Piston side of the business is good. The light jet side of the business is good. It's that -- again, these are people with stronger balance sheets, obviously, and looking out over time, and there's backlog, so you can get one for a year or 18 months, whatever it may be even in the lighter jet side of things.

到處都很難找到 172。所以我認為活塞方面的業務很好。輕型噴射機的業務很好。再說一次，這些人顯然擁有更強大的資產負債表，並且會隨著時間的推移而關注，而且還有積壓的訂單，所以你可以獲得一年或18 個月的訂單，無論它是什麼，即使是在較輕的噴射機方面。

So we continue to see good order flow there. It's that discretionary sort of point-of-sale kind of consumer, generally finance kind of market that's just -- that's down. As I said, we're aligning costs around that. As Frank said, it's tough, particularly this quarter. We had a really strong quarter for a lot of those kind of products a year ago.

因此，我們繼續看到那裡良好的訂單流。正是這種自行決定的銷售點消費者，通常是金融市場，正在下降。正如我所說，我們正在圍繞這一點調整成本。正如弗蘭克所說，這很艱難，尤其是這個季度。一年前，我們的許多此類產品都經歷了非常強勁的季度。

It's softer now. And so we've made necessary cost and production volume alignments to match that. But no, we're absolutely not seeing that behavior when you look at light jets or Bell 505s, Bell 407s. I mean, the market for those, even the sort of the lower price point adjustment rotorcraft continue to do very well.

現在更軟了。因此，我們進行了必要的成本和產量調整以匹配這一點。但不，當您觀察輕型噴射機或貝爾 505、貝爾 407 時，我們絕對看不到這種行為。我的意思是，這些市場，甚至是價格較低的調整旋翼機的市場仍然表現良好。

Okay. Interesting. Last one for me, just on GBSD. Its [sentinel] it passed its none [recurring] review. Any change that you guys expect to the program profile for you guys?

好的。有趣的。我的最後一篇，關於 GBSD。它的[哨兵]通過了無[經常性]審查。你們希望節目簡介有什麼改變嗎？

No, I don't. We're continuing to work very closely with Northrop. I think the program is progressing well. We've had a number of things that have added scope to what we originally had been on the program. So I think we have a great relationship with these guys.

不，我不。我們將繼續與諾斯羅普密切合作。我認為該計劃進展順利。我們已經做了很多事情，增加了我們最初參與該計劃的範圍。所以我認為我們與這些人有著很好的關係。

That piece of the program is going well. As you guys know, I mean, just in the media, a lot of the cost issues around the infrastructure as opposed to the missile itself have been a big issue. So for sure, there are scheduled challenges, which I think are well documented. Northrop talks about them, their customer talks about them. But we continue to, I think, execute well on the program, see scope increases on the program and we're continuing to make good progress on our piece of the overall weapon system.

該計劃的一部分進展順利。正如你們所知，我的意思是，就媒體而言，與飛彈本身相比，基礎設施的許多成本問題一直是一個大問題。因此，可以肯定的是，有預定的挑戰，我認為這些挑戰都有詳細記錄。諾斯羅普談論它們，他們的客戶談論它們。但我認為，我們繼續良好地執行該計劃，看到該計劃範圍的擴大，並且我們在整個武器系統的部分方面繼續取得良好進展。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Thank you. Good morning. It sounded like Aviation guide in line with the initial thoughts, the Industrial margin maybe a little below. But can you just kind of go around the horn a little bit and update what's tracking above or below to align, to stay on the guidance range?

謝謝。早安.聽起來航空指南符合最初的想法，工業利潤率可能略低一些。但是，您能否稍微繞一下喇叭並更新上方或下方的追蹤內容以進行對齊，以保持在引導範圍內？

I'd like to think we actually did a pretty good job there. I think the Aviation guys are well in their guide and having a great year. I think that Bell and Systems will probably come in a little bit above their guide, strong performance in both those businesses. And as we talked about, we'll probably be a little below the guide on the Industrial segment just because of lower volume, particularly in that consumer space. But net, I think we feel pretty good about where things are and most of the businesses are performing really well.

我想我們實際上在那裡做得很好。我認為航空人員在他們的指導下做得很好並且度過了美好的一年。我認為貝爾和系統公司的表現可能會比他們的指導稍高一些，這兩項業務都表現強勁。正如我們所討論的，我們可能會略低於工業領域的指導，因為銷售量較低，特別是在消費領域。但總的來說，我認為我們對目前的情況感覺很好，而且大多數企業的表現都非常好。

Okay. Appreciate it. And then maybe just on pricing on orders. It seems like you're still getting maybe mid-single digits on deliveries. Is it a similar level what's going into the backlog today?

好的。欣賞它。然後也許只是訂單定價。看來你們的交貨量仍然可能是中個位數。今天積壓的水平是否相似？

Yeah. I mean we're probably not going to give price forecasting, but I would certainly say price continues to be strong in the marketplace.

是的。我的意思是，我們可能不會給出價格預測，但我肯定會說市場上的價格仍然強勁。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

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