達信公司 (TXT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded for digital replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through January 24, 2025, at midnight. You may access the replay service by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 4065507.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）本次會議正在錄製數位重播，並將在東部時間今天上午 10 點後至 2025 年 1 月 24 日午夜期間播放。您可以撥打(866)207-1041並輸入接取碼4065507來存取重播服務。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。請繼續。

Thanks, Leah, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝莉亞，大家早安。在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.9 billion, up $3.6 billion in last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $384 million, up $78 million from the fourth quarter of 2022. During this year's fourth quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.60 per share, compared to $1.23 per share in last year's fourth quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $380 million in the quarter, up $12 million from last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, revenues were $13.7 billion, up $814 million from last year.

該季度營收為 39 億美元，比去年第四季增加 36 億美元。該季度的部門利潤為 3.84 億美元，較 2022 年第四季增加 7,800 萬美元。今年第四季度，持續經營業務調整後收益為每股 1.60 美元，而去年第四季為每股 1.23 美元。本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 3.8 億美元，比去年第四季增加 1,200 萬美元。全年營收為 137 億美元，比去年增加 8.14 億美元。

In 2023, segment profit was $1.3 billion, up $191 million from '22. Adjusted income from continuing operations was $5.59 per share as compared to $4.45 per share in '22. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $931 million, down $247 million from '22.

2023 年，該部門利潤為 13 億美元，比 22 年增加 1.91 億美元。調整後的持續經營收入為每股 5.59 美元，而 2022 年為每股 4.45 美元。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流量為 9.31 億美元，比 2020 年減少 2.47 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Our business has closed out the year with another solid quarter with strong margin performance and cash generation. Throughout the year, our team has worked to mitigate supply chain challenges to deliver products to our customers. At Aviation, while we ended the year with an expectation of a book-to-bill 1:1 solid order flow and customer demand across our product portfolio resulted in a year-end backlog of $7.2 billion, an increase of $782 million. Textron Aviation Defense delivered 13 T-6 aircraft for the year, up 10 from a year ago. During 2023, solid aircraft utilization within the Textron Aviation product portfolio resulted in a 6.5% growth in aftermarket revenues

謝謝大衛，大家早安。我們的業務以強勁的利潤表現和現金產生能力，以另一個穩健的季度結束了這一年。在這一年裡，我們的團隊一直致力於緩解供應鏈挑戰，並向客戶交付產品。在航空領域，雖然我們預計年底訂單到帳單 1:1 的穩定訂單流和整個產品組合的客戶需求導致年底積壓 72 億美元，增加了 7.82 億美元。德事隆航空防務公司今年交付了 13 架 T-6 飛機，比去年同期增加了 10 架。 2023 年，德事隆航空產品組合中飛機的穩定利用率導致售後市場收入成長 6.5%

At Bell, revenues in the quarter were up driven by higher commercial and military revenues. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 91 helicopters in the fourth quarter, up from 71 in last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, we delivered 171 helicopters in 2023, down from 179 in 2022. The higher military revenues reflected the continued ramp on our FARA program. On the FARA program, Bell completed the installation of the ITEP engine on the 360 Invictus, the team continues to conduct integration activities and prepare the aircraft for initial ground runs in 2024.

在貝爾，該季度的收入受到商業和軍事收入增加的推動。在貝爾的商業方面，我們在第四季度交付了 91 架直升機，高於去年第四季的 71 架。就全年而言，我們在 2023 年交付了 171 架直升機，低於 2022 年的 179 架。軍事收入的增加反映了我們 FARA 計劃的持續增長。在 FARA 計劃中，貝爾完成了 360 Invictus 上 ITEP 發動機的安裝，團隊繼續進行整合活動，為飛機於 2024 年進行首次地面運行做好準備。

Moving to Textron Systems. Revenue and margin were flat with last year's fourth quarter. During the quarter, Systems delivered the last detailed design and construction craft on the Ship-to-Shore Connector program following its successful completion of acceptance trials.

轉向德事隆系統。營收和利潤率與去年第四季持平。本季度，Systems 在成功完成驗收試驗後交付了船到岸連接器專案的最後詳細設計和施工流程。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenues in the quarter, driven by higher volume in Caltex and favorable pricing in specialized vehicles.

轉向工業。由於加德士銷售增加和專用車輛優惠定價，我們在本季度看到了更高的收入。

Moving to Aviation. Pipistrel delivered 135 aircraft during the year, up from 61 in 2022. Also at eAviation, during the quarter, the Pipistrel Velis Electro was selected to participate for a trial period to explore operational and trading uses for this all-electric aircraft as part of Agility Prime, the Air Force's (inaudible) program.

轉向航空。 Pipistrel 全年交付了 135 架飛機，高於 2022 年的 61 架。在本季度，eAviation 還選擇 Pipistrel Velis Electro 參與試用期，以探索這款全電動飛機的運營和交易用途，作為 Agility 的一部分Prime，空軍的（聽不清楚）計畫。

Summary, in 2023, the year we had a strong year across all of our businesses. We continue to execute on our growth strategy of ongoing investments in new products and programs to drive organic growth and margin expansion. During the year, Aviation announced the new Cessna Citation at (inaudible) base and Cessna Citation CJ3 Gen2 at NBAA. In May, Aviation delivered the first passenger variant of the Cessna Sky Courier (inaudible) Airlines servicing the Hawaiian Islands. In the third quarter, Aviation announced a new fleet agreement with NetJets for up to 1,500 aircraft over 15 years, including Longitude, Latitude and the newly announced Ascend, extending our 40-plus year relationship. In October, Aviation delivered the 100th Cessna Citation Longitude.

總之，2023 年是我們所有業務都表現強勁的一年。我們繼續執行對新產品和計劃進行持續投資的成長策略，以推動有機成長和利潤率擴張。年內，Aviation 在（聽不清楚）基地發布了新的 Cessna Citation，並在 NBAA 發布了 Cessna Citation CJ3 Gen2。 5 月，Aviation 交付了 Cessna Sky Courier（聽不清楚）航空公司的首個客運版本，為夏威夷群島提供服務。第三季度，Aviation 宣布與 NetJets 達成新的機隊協議，在 15 年內購買多達 1,500 架飛機，其中包括 Longitude、Latitude 和新宣布的 Ascend 飛機，從而延長了我們長達 40 多年的合作關係。 10 月，航空交付了第 100 架塞斯納獎狀經度。

At Bell, we began work on the FARA program in April. The team continues to increase activity on the program, ramping up engineering resources, contracting with key suppliers and ordering long-lead materials.

在貝爾，我們於 4 月開始實施 FARA 計劃。該團隊繼續增加該計劃的活動，增加工程資源，與主要供應商簽訂合約並訂購長期材料。

At Textron Systems, we advanced for the future tactical unmanned aircraft system competition and are now 1 of 2 remaining competitors down from the initial 5. Systems also continued to win on land vehicle programs advancing to the next phase of the army's XM30 program as part of TeamLink and was selected as 1 of 4 competitors to build RCV light protypes for the Army.

在德事隆系統公司，我們在未來戰術無人機系統競爭中取得了進展，現在已從最初的5 家剩下的2 家競爭對手中脫穎而出，成為其中之一。系統也繼續在陸地車輛項目上取得勝利，並進入陸軍XM30 項目的下一階段，作為TeamLink 被選為為陸軍製造 RCV 輕型原型的 4 個競爭對手之一。

At Textron Specialized Vehicles, we introduced the new Street legal EasyGo Liberty LSV powered by our Elite lithium-ion battery system.

在德事隆特種車輛公司，我們推出了新型街道合法 EasyGo Liberty LSV，由我們的 Elite 鋰離子電池系統提供動力。

At Caltex in 2023, we announced the first pentatonic order from an automotive OEM for thermoplastic composite underbody battery protection skin plate, establishing Caltex as a supplier to the expanding battery electric vehicle market.

2023 年，我們在加德士展會上宣布了來自汽車 OEM 的首個熱塑性複合材料車底電池保護板五聲音階訂單，使加德士成為不斷擴大的電池電動車市場的供應商。

In Aviation, during the year, we began system level (inaudible) of the first Nuuva prototype, our hybrid electric unmanned cargo vital aircraft in preparation for first flight in 2024.

在航空領域，這一年，我們開始了第一架 Nuuva 原型機的系統級（聽不清楚），這是我們的混合動力電動無人駕駛貨運飛機，為 2024 年的首次飛行做準備。

As we closed out 2023, manufacturing performance was trending positively with improvements in labor productivity and supplier deliveries.

截至 2023 年，隨著勞動生產力和供應商交付量的提高，製造業績效呈現正面趨勢。

Looking to 2024, Aviation, we're projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume. At Bell, we're projecting rev growth in 2024 on higher military revenues from the FARA program and higher commercial revenues from increased deliveries.

展望 2024 年，我們預計航空業的成長將由所有產品線交付量的增加和售後市場銷售的增加所推動。在貝爾，我們預計 2024 年收入將成長，因為 FARA 計畫帶來的軍事收入增加，交付量增加帶來的商業收入增加。

At Systems, we're expecting slightly higher revenue as new programs continue to ramp.

在 Systems，我們預計隨著新項目的不斷增加，收入將略有增加。

At Industrial, we're expecting flat revenues as growth in specialized vehicles is offset by lower-than-expected volume at Caltex.

在工業方面，我們預計收入持平，因為專用車輛的成長被加德士低於預期的銷售所抵消。

At Aviation, we plan to continue investments in the development of technologies and products, supporting sustainable flight solutions for unmanned cargo, next-generation electric trainers, eVTOL and general aviation. We also expect higher aircraft deliveries at Pipistrel. This overall backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $14.6 billion, up 7% from 2023 and for Textron's 2024 fiscal year. We're projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $6.20 to $6.40. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion.

在航空領域，我們計劃繼續投資技術和產品開發，支援無人駕駛貨運、下一代電動教練機、電動垂直起降和通用航空的可持續飛行解決方案。我們也預計 Pipistrel 的飛機交付量將會增加。在此整體背景下，我們預計德事隆 2024 財年的營收將達到約 146 億美元，比 2023 年和 2024 年成長 7%。我們預計調整後每股收益在 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流預計在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.5 billion were down $58 million from the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting lower volume and mix of $158 million, partially offset by higher pricing of $100 million. Segment profit was $193 million in the fourth quarter, up $23 million from a year ago, reflecting a favorable impact from pricing net of inflation of $51 million, partially offset by lower volume and mix of $22 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.2 billion.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。德事隆航空的營收為 15 億美元，較 2022 年第四季減少 5,800 萬美元，反映出銷售量和組合減少 1.58 億美元，部分被較高的 1 億美元定價所抵銷。第四季的部門利潤為 1.93 億美元，比去年同期增加 2,300 萬美元，反映了扣除通貨膨脹因素後的定價帶來的有利影響 5,100 萬美元，部分被銷量下降和 2,200 萬美元的組合所抵消。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 72 億美元。

Moving to Bell, revenues were $1.1 billion, up $255 million from last year's fourth quarter, reflecting higher commercial revenues of $171 million, largely driven by increased deliveries and higher military revenues of $84 million related to the FARA program. Segment profit of $118 million, was up $55 million from a year ago, primarily driven by higher volume and mix of $39 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.8 billion.

貝爾公司的收入為11 億美元，比去年第四季增加了2.55 億美元，反映出商業收入增加了1.71 億美元，這主要是由於交付量增加以及與FARA 計劃相關的軍事收入增加了8,400 萬美元。該部門利潤為 1.18 億美元，比去年同期增加 5,500 萬美元，主要是由於銷量增加和 3,900 萬美元的組合所致。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 48 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $314 million, flat with last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit of $35 million was equal to last year's fourth quarter. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2 billion.

德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.14 億美元，與去年第四季持平。部門利潤為 3500 萬美元，與去年第四季持平。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達到 20 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $961 million, up $54 million from last year's fourth quarter, largely reflecting higher volume and mix at Caltex and a favorable impact from pricing at Textron Specialized Vehicles. Segment profit of $57 million was up $14 million from the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher pricing net of inflation of $18 million.

工業收入為 9.61 億美元，比去年第四季增加 5,400 萬美元，主要反映了加德士的銷售和產品組合的增加以及德事隆專用車輛定價的有利影響。部門利潤為 5,700 萬美元，較 2022 年第四季增加 1,400 萬美元，主要是由於扣除通貨膨脹後的定價較高，達到 1,800 萬美元。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $10 million and the segment loss was $23 million in the fourth quarter of '23, which reflected the research and development costs for the initiatives related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions. Finance segment revenues were $12 million and profit was $4 million.

2023 年第四季德事隆 eAviation 部門營收為 1,000 萬美元，部門虧損為 2,300 萬美元，這反映了與永續航空解決方案開發相關的措施的研發成本。金融部門營收為 1,200 萬美元，利潤為 400 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $45 million. Net interest expense was $13 million. LIFO inventory provision was $21 million, intangible asset amortization was $9 million, and the non-service components of pension and postretirement income was $60 million. In November, we announced a restructuring plan that resulted in pretax special charges of $126 million in the fourth quarter. We anticipate the restructuring plan will be substantially completed in the first half of 2024, resulting in annualized cost savings of approximately $75 million.

低於部門利潤。公司開支為 4500 萬美元。淨利息支出為 1300 萬美元。後進先出庫存撥備為 2,100 萬美元，無形資產攤銷為 900 萬美元，退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,000 萬美元。 11 月，我們宣布了一項重組計劃，導致第四季度稅前特殊費用為 1.26 億美元。我們預計重組計畫將在 2024 年上半年基本完成，年化成本節省約 7,500 萬美元。

Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $380 million in the quarter. For the year, manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $931 million, down $247 million from the prior year. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.7 million shares, returning $283 million in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 16.2 million shares, returning $1.2 billion in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們扣除退休金之前的製造業現金流量為 3.8 億美元。今年，退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總額為 9.31 億美元，比前一年減少 2.47 億美元。本季度，我們回購了約 370 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.83 億美元現金。全年，我們回購了約 1,620 萬股股票，向股東返還了 12 億美元現金。

Turning now to our 2024 outlook on Slide 7. We're expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $900 million to $1 billion.

現在轉向我們對幻燈片 7 的 2024 年展望。我們預計調整後每股收益將在每股 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。我們也預期退休金繳款前的製造業現金流量約為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Moving to segment outlook on Slide 8 and beginning with Textron Aviation, we're expecting revenues of about $6 billion. Segment margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 12% to 13%.

轉向幻燈片 8 中的細分市場前景，從德事隆航空開始，我們預計收入約為 60 億美元。分部利潤率預計約12%至13%。

Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $3.5 billion. We're forecasting a margin in the range of 9.5% to 10.5%.

對於貝爾，我們預計收入約為 35 億美元。我們預測利潤率在 9.5% 至 10.5% 之間。

At Systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1.25 billion with a margin in the range of about 11% to 12%.

我們預計 Systems 的營收約為 12.5 億美元，利潤率約為 11% 至 12%。

At Industrial, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3.8 billion and a margin in a range of 6% to 7%.

在工業領域，我們預計該部門的收入約為 38 億美元，利潤率在 6% 至 7% 之間。

At Aviation, we're expecting revenues of $50 million and a segment loss of $25 million, reflecting our continued investment in sustainable aviation solutions.

在航空部門，我們預計收入為 5,000 萬美元，部門虧損為 2,500 萬美元，這反映出我們對永續航空解決方案的持續投資。

At Finance, we're forecasting segment profit of about $30 million.

在財務部門，我們預計該部門的利潤約為 3000 萬美元。

Looking to Slide 8, we're projecting about $160 million of corporate expense. We're also projecting about $90 million of net interest expense, $110 million of LIFO inventory provision, $35 million of intangible asset amortization and $265 million of nonservice pension income. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 17.5%.

從投影片 8 來看，我們預計公司開支約為 1.6 億美元。我們也預期淨利息支出約為 9,000 萬美元、後進先出庫存準備金為 1.1 億美元、無形資產攤銷為 3,500 萬美元、非服務退休金收入為 2.65 億美元。我們預計全年有效稅率約為 17.5%。

Turning to Slide 10. R&D is expected to be about $550 million, down from $570 million last year. We're estimating CapEx will be about $425 million, up from $402 million in 2023. Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 191 million shares in 2024.

轉向投影片 10。研發費用預計約 5.5 億美元，低於去年的 5.7 億美元。我們估計資本支出約為 4.25 億美元，高於 2023 年的 4.02 億美元。我們的展望假設 2024 年平均股數約為 1.91 億股。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Leah, we can open the line for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。利亞，我們可以開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) And I would now like to start with Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）現在我想從 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 開始。

Scott, maybe first one for you. How do we think about 2024 aviation deliveries and just book-to-bill in the context of your guidance?

史考特，也許是你的第一個。在您的指導下，我們如何看待 2024 年的航空交付量和訂單到帳單？

Sure, Sheila, I think we'll continue to see a ramp on the production side. As I noted, I think we did in the fourth quarter, start to see some improved productivity in the line. There are still some supplier issues, but number of parts coming into PO are improving somewhat. So I think that will help us continue to increase volume here as we go through into 2024. So I certainly see unit deliveries being up on a year-over-year basis. The market is still strong. I mean, obviously, our book-to-bill covers '24 deliveries quite well.

當然，希拉，我認為我們將繼續看到生產方面的成長。正如我所指出的，我認為我們在第四季度開始看到生產線的生產力有所提高。仍存在一些供應商問題，但進入採購訂單的零件數量有所改善。因此，我認為這將有助於我們在 2024 年繼續增加銷售量。因此，我當然看到單位交付量同比增長。市場依然強勁。我的意思是，顯然，我們的訂單到帳單很好地涵蓋了 24 年的交貨情況。

But I think our expectation, as we said coming into the year was kind of targeting a 1:1 book-to-bill. We did better than that obviously in 2023, but our assumption as we go into 2024 is that we'll see a 1:1 book-to-bill. So the market is still good. I think we're seeing nice stimulation and some of the new products coming out, like CJ3 Gen2 has been really well received. Ascend, I think will start to also drive strong demand, and overall, the product lineup is in good shape. So I think market-wise, we're good, and we will see, obviously, to get to the guide of around $6 billion on Aviation side, we will see continued volume on both aircraft production as well as aftermarket growth.

但我認為，正如我們所說，今年的目標是實現 1:1 的訂單出貨比。 2023 年我們的表現顯然比這更好，但進入 2024 年我們的假設是我們將看到 1:1 的訂單出貨比。所以市場還是不錯的。我認為我們看到了很好的刺激，一些新產品的問世，例如 CJ3 Gen2 非常受歡迎。我認為升騰也將開始推動強勁的需求，整體而言，產品陣容狀況良好。因此，我認為從市場角度來看，我們做得很好，而且我們顯然會看到，為了達到航空方面約 60 億美元的目標，我們將看到飛機生產量和售後市場的持續增長。

Can we get to about 200 deliveries in '24? Do you think that's reasonable?

我們能在 24 年交付約 200 架嗎？你覺得合理嗎？

We are -- as you know, we don't put a number out there, but it will be increased from 2023.

如您所知，我們沒有公佈具體數字，但從 2023 年開始該數字將會增加。

Got it. And if I could ask one of FLRAA just good progress on the program with (inaudible). But I think revenues were about $175 million in 2023, fell short of our expectations. And how do we think about 2024, we have about $850 million of FLRAA according to the budget. So, how is that (inaudible)?

知道了。如果我可以問 FLRAA 之一，該計劃取得了良好的進展（聽不清楚）。但我認為 2023 年的營收約為 1.75 億美元，低於我們的預期。我們如何看待 2024 年，根據預算，我們有大約 8.5 億美元的 FLRAA。那麼，怎麼樣（聽不清楚）？

I think -- for sure, Sheila, I think our revenues were higher than that on FLRAA probably for the year. We won't break out all the details, but it was certainly just south of a few hundred million dollars. But we do expect as we go into '24. The program is reacting very nicely. As you know, like the number was lighter than we originally expected, just because of the delay with the protest in the early part of the year. But the ramp -- as we've ramped after the contract award is going really well. So I would expect a number closer to the $900 million range in 2024 on the FLRAA program.

我認為——當然，希拉，我認為我們今年的收入可能高於 FLRAA 的收入。我們不會透露所有細節，但肯定只是幾億美元。但我們確實期待進入 24 世紀。該程式的反應非常好。如您所知，這個數字比我們最初預期的要少，只是因為年初抗議活動的延遲。但是，正如我們在合約授予後所進行的那樣，進展非常順利。因此，我預計 2024 年 FLRAA 計畫的金額將接近 9 億美元。

Next, we go to a question from Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來，我們回答彼得·阿門特和貝爾德提出的問題。

Just maybe -- just circle back just on how you're thinking about kind of the margin leverage in aviation, Scott, when you think about just because you called out some of the pricing that you continue to get. How are we thinking about just kind of that flowing through? I mean just given the margin outlook of 12% to 13% kind of at the low end of the range, it's flat, but at the upper end, obviously, 100 basis points. Just how are you thinking about that?

只是也許——斯科特，當你考慮僅僅因為你調出一些你繼續獲得的定價時，請回想一下你如何考慮航空業的利潤槓桿。我們如何思考這種流動？我的意思是，考慮到 12% 至 13% 的利潤率前景，在該範圍的低端，它是持平的，但在高端，顯然是 100 個基點。你是怎麼想的？

Sure. Look, Peter, I think we definitely expect to continue to see price net of inflation is a positive for us. It won't be as significant as it was in 2023, but we still have good pricing in the backlog, and I think it will be a tailwind for us. So if you look at the guide and the numbers, you're right. Look, I mean, we're -- as I said, I think we saw some improved performance in Q4 on the manufacturing conversion side. So we're bringing -- we're certainly baking some of that in as we go into 2024, but as you move towards the high side of the guidance, you get up into that 20-plus percent conversion, which is where we historically like the business to be. So it's something we've got to work on, obviously. We still have some of those headwinds that we faced all this year on the operating side, but the combination of improved performance and continued price over inflation is positive, while it's not as big a positive, I think, will help us get towards that 20-plus range.

當然。瞧，彼得，我認為我們肯定希望繼續看到扣除通貨膨脹的價格對我們來說是積極的。它不會像 2023 年那樣重要，但我們在積壓訂單中仍然有良好的定價，我認為這對我們來說將是一個順風車。因此，如果您查看指南和數字，您是對的。聽著，我的意思是，正如我所說，我認為我們在第四季度在製造轉換方面看到了一些改進的表現。因此，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們肯定會考慮其中的一些內容，但當你朝著指導的高端方向前進時，你會達到 20% 以上的轉化率，這是我們歷史上的水平喜歡生意。所以顯然，這是我們必須努力的事情。我們在營運方面仍然面臨今年全年面臨的一些不利因素，但業績改善和價格持續高於通膨的結合是積極的，雖然我認為這不是那麼大的積極因素，但我認為這將幫助我們實現20 -加上範圍。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just Frank quickly, the interest expense increase, just maybe what's going on there specifically?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後弗蘭克很快，利息支出增加了，也許具體發生了什麼？

Well, go ahead.

好吧，繼續吧。

Yes, a little. We've got slightly higher borrowing costs from the bond deal that we did last year. So that's a little bit of the rollover on the financing. It assumes slightly lower cash balances and a little bit of conservatism around the interest rate that we earn on that excess cash.

對，一點。去年的債券交易使我們的借貸成本略高。這只是融資的一點點展期。它假設現金餘額略低，我們從多餘現金中賺取的利率有點保守。

And next, we go to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來，我們將與巴克萊銀行合作，了解大衛·史特勞斯。

Scott, I wanted to ask about the V-22 grounding. Does that impact Bell at all? I know you have a pretty big aftermarket business on the V-22?

Scott，我想問 V-22 接地的問題。這對貝爾有影響嗎？我知道你們的 V-22 售後市場業務相當大？

No, David, I don't think it's a material impact. The services, frankly, are using the opportunity -- the grounding to continue to do their maintenance activities and get aircraft ready to fly. So we probably can't say much more about that situation than that. But no, I don't expect it to be a material impact.

不，大衛，我認為這不會產生實質影響。坦白說，各軍種正在利用停飛的機會繼續進行維護活動並讓飛機做好飛行準備。因此，對於這種情況，我們可能無法說得更多。但不，我不認為這會產生實質影響。

Okay. And Frank, free cash flow. The guidance were flat. I know you had a pretty big inventory build in '23, but you also had positive advances. What are you assuming for working capital? And in terms of the adjusted EPS guide, what are you baking in as far as share count and share repo in '24?

好的。弗蘭克，自由現金流。指引持平。我知道你們在 23 年建立了相當大的庫存，但你們也取得了積極的進展。您對營運資金有何假設？就調整後的每股盈餘指南而言，您對 24 年的股票數量和股票回購有何預期？

Yes. From a cash standpoint, we obviously are anticipating volume growth in the year. So that's going to put a little continued pressure on inventory levels as we look kind of to '24 and '25 volume growth, not a lot. There is a little bit of working capital pressure with the timing of some customer payment activity, particularly on the military side. Bell, in particular, had a very good year in '23 in terms of the timing of payment activity that puts a little bit of a headwind on cash flow. And then as you heard a little higher CapEx guidance kind of -- in terms of the spend there. So it's not any one item. It's kind of a little bit of headwinds on working capital associated with the things I mentioned and a little bit higher levels of investment. But we still think we're -- there's still very solid cash flow performance for the year.

是的。從現金的角度來看，我們顯然預計今年的銷售量將會成長。因此，這將對庫存水準造成持續的壓力，因為我們預計 24 和 25 年的銷售將成長，但不會太多。一些客戶付款活動的時間表會帶來一些營運資金壓力，特別是在軍事方面。尤其是貝爾，在 23 年的支付活動時間方面表現非常好，這對現金流帶來了一些阻力。然後，當你聽到更高一點的資本支出指引時——就那裡的支出而言。所以它不是任何一件物品。與我提到的事情以及更高水準的投資相關的營運資金有點阻力。但我們仍然認為今年的現金流表現仍然非常穩健。

In terms of the share count, we talked about 191 million average shares. So kind of roughly 5% or so reduction in average share count for the year.

就股數而言，我們談到平均股數為1.91億股。今年的平均股票數量大約減少了 5% 左右。

Next, we go to Jason Gursky with Citi.

接下來，我們請來花旗銀行的傑森‧古爾斯基 (Jason Gursky)。

Scott, I was wondering if you could just spend a few more minutes on Systems and talk about the pipeline of opportunities there and the timing of potential awards kind of with the backdrop of what's going on with the budget in mind and whether things like continuing resolutions to go out half a year have any impact on kind of your expectations around those?

史考特，我想知道您是否可以在系統上多花幾分鐘時間，談談那裡的機會管道以及潛在獎項的時間安排，背景是預算的情況以及是否需要繼續解決方案外出半年對您的期望有哪些影響？

So the CR situation right now doesn't really worry me very much on the system side of things. As we indicated, Jason, we're going to be relatively flattish on the revenue in 2024, I'd say the pipeline is very strong. You look at some of these down selects on FTUAS, the ARV program, what used to be the OMFV program, XM30 program. A lot of these things are significant opportunities for us. Thay are really important down selects that we achieved last year. We'll execute on those, and they're not big growth programs so they don't really have a CR impact that I'm too concerned about. And there are virtually all programs that will have their next significant contractual award down select in 2025.

因此，目前 CR 的情況在系統方面並沒有讓我非常擔心。 Jason，正如我們所指出的，我們 2024 年的收入將相對持平，我想說管道非常強大。你可以看看 FTUAS、ARV 計劃、曾經的 OMFV 計劃、XM30 計劃等一些向下選擇。其中很多事情對我們來說都是重要的機會。我們去年實現的羽絨選擇非常重要。我們將執行這些計劃，它們不是大型成長計劃，因此它們不會真正產生我太擔心的 CR 影響。幾乎所有項目都將在 2025 年選擇下一個重要合約。

So that's why you see us kind of flattish. We had -- I think 2023 was a hugely important year for the down selects on those really important programs, execute this year and you start to see the revenue growth driven by ultimately being final selection awards, EMD programs that award in 2025.

所以這就是為什麼你會覺得我們有點扁平。我們——我認為 2023 年對於那些真正重要的項目的篩選來說是非常重要的一年，今年執行，你開始看到最終選擇獎、2025 年頒發的 EMD 項目所驅動的收入增長。

Okay. Great. And then just quickly on eAviation. We've got widening profitability losses they're projected for '24 on higher revenue. I was wondering if you could just kind of give us a broad brush update on the plans for that business? And at what point does the revenue potentially pick up here and you begin to see those profitability losses begin to contract? And kind of your overall vision for that business over the next, I don't know, 3 to 5 years?

好的。偉大的。然後快速上 eAviation。由於收入增加，我們預計 24 年的獲利能力損失將會擴大。我想知道您能否向我們提供有關該業務計劃的大致更新資訊？什麼時候收入可能會回升，而您開始看到這些獲利能力損失開始收縮？我不知道，您對該業務未來 3 到 5 年的整體願景是什麼？

Sure. Absolutely. Look, keep in mind, there's 2 things going on in that eAviation segment, right? There's Pipistrel, which is our current -- it's a real business, real sales, roughly doubling the volume of aircraft sales from '22 to '23, roughly doubling '23 to '24. So I think the product lineup at Pipistrel is doing quite well. We're expanding distribution channels. It's a relatively small business, but it's doing well. What's driving the losses is these investments in R&D, particularly around the NEXUS program, that's something that won't generate revenue probably for several years and investment on, say, the Nuuva 300 which is our hybrid unmanned cargo which, again, this is a few years from revenue. And so that's part of why just we broke this thing out, right? So you guys see these investments, which are, frankly, not dependent or tied to the revenue within that segment.

當然。絕對地。請記住，eAviation 細分市場中正在發生兩件事，對吧？ Pipistrel 是我們目前的業務，它是一項真正的業務，真正的銷售，從 22 年到 23 年，飛機銷量大約翻了一番，從 23 年到 24 年，飛機銷量大約翻了一番。所以我認為 Pipistrel 的產品陣容表現得相當不錯。我們正在擴大分銷管道。這是一家規模相對較小的企業，但經營狀況良好。造成損失的原因是這些研發投資，特別是圍繞NEXUS 項目的投資，這可能在幾年內都不會產生收入，而且對Nuuva 300 等產品的投資，這是我們的混合無人駕駛貨運飛機，同樣，這是一個幾年的收入。這就是我們把這件事鬧出來的部分原因，對嗎？所以你們看到這些投資，坦白說，並不依賴或與該細分市場的收入掛鉤。

So the 2 big moving pieces in there in terms of the investment side are the Nuuva on the unmanned cargo and the Nexus on the sort of the eVTOL side, which, again, I don't think that has to be necessarily dependent to operability, but just GA in general. That -- both of those teams are making great shape. I think we'll see first flight of the Nuuva in 2024. We've also begun the assembly and wings and fuselage build on the NEXUS program in Wichita. So both programs are making very good progress, but they're both technology investment programs.

因此，就投資而言，其中兩個重要的移動部分是無人駕駛貨運方面的 Nuuva 和 eVTOL 方面的 Nexus，同樣，我認為這不一定取決於可操作性，但一般來說只是GA。那——這兩支球隊都表現出色。我認為我們將在 2024 年看到 Nuuva 的首次飛行。我們也開始在威奇託的 NEXUS 項目上進行組裝以及機翼和機身的組裝。所以這兩個項目都取得了非常好的進展，但它們都是技術投資項目。

Next, we go to the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們來看看諾亞·波波納克 (Noah Poponak) 與高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的合作。

Scott, we've heard some discussion in the business jet end market that even though 2023 was a decent order year that there's actually maybe some pent-up demand because it was so consensus that there was going to be a recession or something like it. And that in 2024 if we're having an inflation desell and rate cuts and some version of a soft landing that you could have your normal underlying demand plus anybody that deferred from '23. And so I'm curious if you hear that from your customers or your sales force and there's an upside case for bookings? Or is that too aggressive and just stick with book-to-bill of 1?

Scott，我們在公務機終端市場聽到了一些討論，儘管 2023 年是一個不錯的訂單年，但實際上可能存在一些被壓抑的需求，因為人們普遍認為將會出現經濟衰退或類似情況。到 2024 年，如果我們出現通貨膨脹、降息和某種形式的軟著陸，那麼你可能會得到正常的基本需求以及任何從 23 年後推遲的需求。所以我很好奇您是否從您的客戶或銷售人員那裡聽到了這樣的說法，預訂有上升的空間？還是說這太激進了，只堅持訂單出貨比為 1？

Well, look, no, I think as I said at the beginning, we feel good about the end market. Customer dialogues are robust. Frankly, the only headwind that I see would run through is just on availability, right? People would like to get aircraft sooner. So we're -- I think our sales folks are out there working hard. There's no doubt there's demand. I think that's, as I said earlier, helped by the fact that we've got some new models that are coming out that are going to be really well received in the market. So, look, all in all, as we talked about, the book-to-bill number can change a little bit quarter to quarter, but I think we feel very good about the end market. I think we'll stick at this point with our kind of one-to-one in our base assumption as we did in 2023. And if the market remains that robust, we can exceed that number, which would be great. So look, I think the market remains strong. It's -- we feel good about it.

嗯，看，不，我認為正如我一開始所說的，我們對終端市場感覺良好。客戶對話很活躍。坦白說，我認為唯一會遇到的阻力就是可用性，對嗎？人們希望早點擁有飛機。所以我們——我認為我們的銷售人員正在努力工作。毫無疑問，有需求。正如我之前所說，我認為這要歸功於我們即將推出的一些新型號，這些型號將在市場上受到廣泛歡迎。因此，總而言之，正如我們所討論的，訂單到帳單的數量可能每季都會發生一些變化，但我認為我們對終端市場感覺非常好。我認為我們將像 2023 年那樣堅持我們的基本假設中的一對一。如果市場保持強勁，我們可以超過這個數字，這將是偉大的。所以看，我認為市場仍然很強勁。我們對此感覺很好。

Okay. And I wondered if you could just maybe discuss a little more -- just how much better is supply chain, labor, your ability to get airplanes out the door. The delivery number was down in '23, despite all the demand, kind of to your point there on availability. Whatever the '24 delivery plan is, it's got to be up a lot to get to that revenue guidance. Do you feel like you really have that hitting the ground running in January here? And then as that pertains to the margin, why would price net of inflation not be better if that -- if pricing is still good, I know the rate of change matters, but if that -- if the cost inflation and disruption piece settles down significantly for you?

好的。我想知道您是否可以再討論一下——供應鏈、勞動力以及飛機出廠的能力有多大改善。儘管需求很大，但 23 年的交貨數量還是下降了，這有點符合您對可用性的觀點。無論 24 小時的交付計劃是什麼，它都必須大幅提高才能達到收入指導。你覺得一月你真的已經開始行動了嗎？然後，由於這與利潤有關，為什麼扣除通貨膨脹的價格不會更好，如果——如果定價仍然不錯，我知道變化率很重要，但如果那樣的話——如果成本通膨和顛覆問題穩定下來對你來說意義重大嗎？

Well, look, I'd say I don't know how to quantify the exact number for you Noah, but there's a couple of dynamics here that make us feel good about it. Again, we saw better labor productivity, all the metrics we track in terms of training hours, direct -- charging to indirect, all those sorts of things, applied hours. We're positive in the quarter. We do track a number of parts that are late to PO. These numbers are getting better. Also, I think as you look at the '23 to '24, we have net less hiring we need to do to hit the ramp. Last year was a big year in terms of onboarding new people. As you can imagine, that's very disruptive. It's a lot of training that takes not just the new people, but it takes a lot of our capable people to help train and develop them.

好吧，我想說，我不知道如何為你量化確切的數字，諾亞，但這裡有一些動態讓我們對此感覺良好。再次，我們看到了更好的勞動生產力，我們在培訓時間方面追蹤的所有指標，直接 - 向間接費用，所有這些事情，應用時間。我們對本季持樂觀態度。我們確實追蹤了一些延遲到達 PO 的零件。這些數字正在變得更好。另外，我認為，當你看看 23 至 24 年間，我們需要做的招募工作淨減少了。就新進員工入職而言，去年是重要的一年。正如您可以想像的那樣，這是非常具有破壞性的。大量的培訓不僅需要新員工，還需要我們許多有能力的人來幫助培訓和發展他們。

We made a lot of investments in 2023 around new training facilities. So -- but the absolute number, we still need to onboard new people, for sure. But on -- the number of them is less than what it was in 2023, and that should be helpful.

2023 年，我們圍繞新培訓設施進行了大量投資。所以，但從絕對數量來看，我們仍然需要新員工，這是肯定的。但現在——他們的數量比 2023 年要少，這應該會有所幫助。

The supply chain thing, as I said, look, it is getting better, but it's still susceptible to the wrong part, not being available, right? I mean I think it's going to help us do less out of station work but we still have suppliers we're keeping a close eye on because a lack of delivery on their part could hold up an aircraft. So we're still being cautious about how we work through that, but it has improved. And like I said, there is really less hiring. I think most of our lines are flowing better as a result of all the things I just talked about. So that we do factor that into our ability to hit that larger number of aircraft deliveries in '24. And I think we'll get there.

正如我所說，供應鏈問題看起來正在變得更好，但它仍然容易受到錯誤部分的影響，無法獲得，對吧？我的意思是，我認為這將幫助我們減少站外工作，但我們仍然密切關注供應商，因為他們缺乏交付可能會阻礙飛機的飛行。因此，我們仍然對如何解決這個問題持謹慎態度，但情況已經有所改善。正如我所說，招聘確實減少了。我認為由於我剛才談到的所有事情，我們的大多數線路都變得更好了。因此，我們確實將這一點納入我們在 24 年實現更大數量飛機交付的能力中。我想我們會成功的。

Okay. That's good. I'm just going to ask one more. The Bell margin, pretty strong in the quarter, close to '23, well ahead of the initial plan. This '24 guide, 9.5 to 10.5, kind of flat year-over-year. There was a view that this was going to 7%, 8% as you ramped FLRAA, you're ramping FLRAA, that's not happening. Can you talk about how you're outperforming there and absorbing the FLRAA ramp is '24, the trough? Or does that still need to go down some number of hundreds of basis points before than going back up?

好的。那挺好的。我只想再問一個問題。貝爾利潤率在本季相當強勁，接近 23 年，遠遠超出了最初的計劃。 24 年的指引值為 9.5 至 10.5，與去年同期持平。有一種觀點認為，當你增加 FLRAA 時，這個數字會達到 7%、8%，你正在增加 FLRAA，但這並沒有發生。您能談談您在 24 年的表現如何，以及如何吸收 FLRAA 的坡道、低谷嗎？或者在回升之前仍需要下降數百個基點？

Look, Noah. I think, look, the team is doing everything they can to manage costs, control -- do the right cost actions here as we see the ramp down on some of these military production programs, and we continue to do that. Those were certainly better mix than a big cost-plus EMD program. So we still will have some pressure around the margin rate. But as we talked about that, the growth benefit of seeing this program ramp up, we believe will still generate accretive, not dollars. So even if we see some pressure on the margin rate, the business will still be contributing positively to the overall dollars and therefore EPS for the business.

看，諾亞。我認為，看，團隊正在盡一切努力來管理成本、控制——當我們看到其中一些軍事生產計劃減少時，採取正確的成本行動，並且我們將繼續這樣做。這些無疑是比大型成本加成 EMD 計劃更好的組合。所以我們在保證金率方面仍然會面臨一些壓力。但正如我們所討論的，看到該計劃增加的成長效益，我們相信仍會產生增值，而不是美元。因此，即使我們看到利潤率面臨一些壓力，該業務仍將為整體美元和每股盈餘做出積極貢獻。

And next, we go to the line of Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將討論邁爾斯·沃爾頓 (Myles Walton) 與沃爾夫研究公司 (Wolfe Research) 的合作。

I was hoping to circle on Aviation. In the last few quarters, there's been more discussion of this performance as a negative variance to the profit walk. That wasn't part of the conversation. It was clearly price offset by a little bit of volume. So is it fair to think that, that bucket of performance that you all cite has materially become nonmaterial?

我本來希望在航空領域轉一圈。在過去的幾個季度中，人們越來越多地討論這種業績對利潤成長的負面影響。那不是談話的一部分。很明顯，價格被一點點成交量所抵銷。那麼，你們所引用的那一桶表現其實已經變得非物質了，這樣想公平嗎？

Well, I wouldn't say nonmaterial. I would say, Myles -- and look in 2023, we had pretty significant price over inflation benefits. And I think we did talk through the course of the year that, that did help to offset some of the performance issues that were driven by these labor inefficiencies and supplier impacts and stuff like that.

好吧，我不會說非物質的。我想說，邁爾斯，展望 2023 年，我們的價格相對於通膨收益而言相當可觀。我認為我們在這一年中確實進行了討論，這確實有助於抵消由勞動力效率低下和供應商影響等因素引起的一些績效問題。

So I think, as you look at 2024, we're expecting improved margins. We're absolutely expecting significantly improved revenue and therefore, operating profit in the business. But the trade you're going to see is there's probably still positive price over inflation, but not as big a number. But you're going to have less performance issue to have to cover with that number because we do expect to see better efficiencies in the factories and lesser impact from the supply. So net of all this stuff, I mean, there's a different dynamic, I believe, in 2024. That's how we're going to get there than 2023. But the bottom line, you're going to see significant revenue growth and significant operating profit, including expanding margin in 2024.

所以我認為，展望 2024 年，我們預期利潤率會有所提高。我們絕對期望收入顯著提高，因此業務的營業利潤也將顯著提高。但你將看到的交易是，價格可能仍然高於通貨膨脹，但數字沒有那麼大。但用這個數字來解決效能問題將會減少，因為我們確實希望看到工廠效率更高，供應影響更小。因此，除去所有這些因素，我的意思是，我相信2024 年會有不同的動態。這就是我們將如何實現與2023 年相同的目標。但最重要的是，你將看到顯著的收入成長和顯著的營運利潤，包括 2024 年擴大利潤率。

Okay. And then on the restructuring program, you executed, I think, about 60% maybe was directed at Bell. Of the $75 million gross savings you talked about, how much net savings is Bell getting in '24? And also is Bell getting most of the lower R&D benefit?

好的。然後，在重組計劃中，我認為，大約 60% 的重組計劃可能是針對貝爾的。在您談到的 7500 萬美元總節省中，貝爾在 24 年獲得了多少淨節省？貝爾是否獲得了大部分較低的研發收益？

Well, look, I mean we don't -- we're probably not going to break that all the way down, but certainly part of why the discussion I just had with Noah around, why are we seeing some better margins and holding in there on the margin rates at Bell is this is part of why we took that restructuring action to control cost and manage our way as we reduce the volume in some of these historic military production programs.

好吧，聽著，我的意思是我們不會——我們可能不會徹底打破這一點，但這肯定是我剛剛與諾亞進行討論的部分原因，為什麼我們會看到一些更好的利潤並堅持下去貝爾的利潤率是我們在減少一些歷史性軍事生產項目數量時採取重組行動來控製成本和管理方式的部分原因。

And so that's part of what's helping to sustain a better margin rate even as we see those programs ramped out. We just have to take the cost out of the business in the areas that we're largely supporting these big military production programs. So I won't put the exact number in there, but that's the dynamic that's helping to improve that -- for that margin.

因此，即使我們看到這些計劃不斷擴大，這也有助於維持更好的利潤率。我們只需在我們主要支援這些大型軍事生產項目的領域中消除業務成本。所以我不會在那裡輸入確切的數字，但這就是有助於改善這一點的動力——對於這個利潤。

And is R&D drop there mostly in Bell?

研發下降主要集中在貝爾嗎？

Yes, it is. I mean, as you know, we don't break that all the way out. But look, we still had, as you recall, the delay of the FLRAA program in 2023, we had more of our own costs, still sustaining and supporting that program in the earlier part of the year, obviously, as that has ramped and become a full-blown contract, that's helping to reduce that number. The overall gross R&D, the business is still growing significantly as FLRAA ramps, but the net number in terms of the IRAD side is certainly shifted from that IRAD into the contract over.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知，我們不會完全打破這一點。但是，正如您所記得的，我們仍然有 2023 年 FLRAA 計劃的延遲，我們自己的成本更多，顯然仍在今年早些時候維持和支持該計劃，因為該計劃已經增加並成為一份完整的合同有助於減少這個數字。整體研發總額、業務仍在隨著 FLRAA 的成長而顯著成長，但 IRAD 方面的淨數量肯定會從 IRAD 轉移到合約中。

And the next question we have is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. She has disconnected. We will move on to the next line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。她已經斷線了。我們將繼續討論羅伯特·斯塔拉德 (Robert Stallard) 的《垂直研究》的下一篇文章。

Scott, I just have to follow up on Noah's question about the supply chain and the parts behind at the moment. Are there any specific areas where you're seeing any problems like interiors that are holding things up?

史考特，我現在只需要跟進諾亞關於供應鏈和背後零件的問題。您是否在某些特定區域發現了任何問題，例如阻礙事情發展的內部問題？

Nothing that I would comment on a call. There's -- we all have our problem (inaudible), Rob.

我不會對電話發表任何評論。我們都有自己的問題（聽不清楚），羅布。

Yes. Understood. And then secondly, there's been some press reports that Textron has been looking at some M&A competitions in recent months. I don't expect you to comment on that. But I'm sorry, if you could maybe reiterate your priorities for capital deployment as we start 2024?

是的。明白了。其次，有一些媒體報導德事隆近幾個月一直在關註一些併購競爭。我不希望你對此發表評論。但抱歉，能否重申 2024 年開始的資本部署優先事項？

Sure. No, we definitely would not comment on that. And look, I think what we've talked about and Frank's indication on the share count of 191 million, obviously indicates that our priority continues to be a share buyback, and that makes, we think, at this point, a pretty significant benefit for our shareholders, and that's what we expect to continue to do in 2024.

當然。不，我們絕對不會對此發表評論。看，我認為我們所討論的以及弗蘭克對 1.91 億股股票數量的指示，顯然表明我們的首要任務仍然是股票回購，我們認為，在這一點上，這對我們來說是一個相當大的好處我們的股東，這就是我們期望在2024 年繼續做的事情。

And our next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess just asking about the performance at eAviation and kind of the improvement in productivity and parts availability that you started to see in the fourth quarter. Does that mean that in the first quarter, we can expect to see kind of a nice increase in deliveries and something that would kind of affirm the notion of being on track for the revenue guide for the year?

我想只是詢問 eAviation 的業績以及您在第四季度開始看到的生產力和零件可用性的改進。這是否意味著在第一季度，我們可以預期交付量會出現不錯的成長，並且會證實今年營收指南步入正軌的想法？

Well, we're not going to get into quarterly guidance for sure, Seth. I mean, you certainly should expect to see a nice progression in terms of the revenue on a quarter-to-quarter basis over 2023, consistent with the guide of $6 billion of revenue for the total year.

好吧，我們肯定不會進入季度指導，塞斯。我的意思是，您當然應該期望看到 2023 年每季的收入都有良好的成長，與全年 60 億美元收入的指導方針一致。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then maybe just following up a little bit different twist on Rob's question. I know you probably won't comment on specific M&A reports. But the reports that we have read tend to deal mainly with the space end market. I wonder if you could comment on -- do you view that as an important and/or attractive end market into which to expand?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後也許只是對羅布的問題進行一些不同的轉折。我知道您可能不會對特定的併購報告發表評論。但我們讀到的報告往往主要涉及太空終端市場。我想知道您是否可以評論一下——您是否認為這是一個重要的和/或有吸引力的、值得拓展的終端市場？

I wouldn't comment.

我不會發表評論。

Fair enough. All right.

很公平。好的。

And next, we go to the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們轉到克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag) 與摩根士丹利 (Morgan Stanley) 的合作。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you fine.

是的，我們可以很好地聽到你的聲音。

On your restructuring actions, can you provide more details on what you're doing and what your expectations are for the timing and the size of the payback from your investments?

關於您的重組行動，您能否提供更多詳細信息，說明您正在做什麼以及您對投資回報的時間和規模的預期？

Well, Kristine, as we kind of put out there, there's a sizable piece that's going into Bell, and that's really aligning our cost structure with the lower production rates on some of the historic military programs like H1 and V-22. That's a very -- in terms of cost and the mix of people within the business, the ramp obviously is net positive, but it's largely in the engineering program side of the FLRAA program. So it's a necessary action to align costs with the old historic production programs.

嗯，克里斯汀，正如我們所說，貝爾有相當大的一部分，這確實使我們的成本結構與一些歷史性軍事項目（如 H1 和 V-22）的較低生產率保持一致。就成本和業務人員組成而言，成長顯然是淨積極的，但主要是在 FLRAA 計劃的工程項目方面。因此，使成本與舊的歷史生產計劃保持一致是必要的行動。

As we also indicated, we're just -- we're aligning some of our plans on the auto side to understand where is demand around the world and rationalizing where we think it's appropriate to keep that business healthy with a high return and strong cash flow. So just -- there's bits in a number of other places. But we believe on a run rate basis, it's going to be about a $75 million a year positive impact to the business. And so that's, I think, a good return and why we decided to proceed with the program.

正如我們還指出的那樣，我們只是 - 我們正在調整汽車方面的一些計劃，以了解世界各地的需求，並在我們認為合適的地方進行合理化，以保持高回報和強勁現金的業務健康流動。所以只是——其他很多地方都有一些內容。但我們相信，以運行率計算，每年將為業務帶來約 7500 萬美元的正面影響。所以我認為這是一個很好的回報，也是我們決定繼續該計劃的原因。

Great. And maybe on Aviation, if I could do a follow-up. $100 million in pricing power for new aircraft is very healthy. And so if we're seeing -- if you're continuing to see bottlenecks and new aircraft production, can you talk about the demand environment for aircraft services then? And what's the pricing power in services, especially with the lack of new airplanes coming into the market?

偉大的。如果我可以跟進的話，也許在航空方面。新飛機 1 億美元的定價能力非常健康。因此，如果我們繼續看到瓶頸和新飛機生產，您能談談飛機服務的需求環境嗎？服務的定價能力有多大，特別是在市場上缺乏新飛機的情況下？

Look, I think what we saw this year, which was strong growth, 6.5% on the services side. Obviously, that's a mixture between volume and pricing. I expect we'll continue to see good demand on that side, we certainly have that baked into our forecast. Aircraft are flying. Our customers are running the aircraft. They're doing its necessary maintenance. So I think it will continue to be a healthy part. Certainly, what we've incorporated in the guide for next year is good growth in the service business, both our service centers as well as the parts. And as always, that's going to be a function of both volume increases as well as annual expected pricing in the aftermarket side.

看，我認為我們今年看到了強勁的成長，服務業成長了 6.5%。顯然，這是數量和價格之間的混合。我預計我們將繼續看到這方面的良好需求，我們當然已將其納入我們的預測中。飛機正在飛行。我們的客戶正在運行這架飛機。他們正在做必要的維護。所以我認為它將繼續是一個健康的部分。當然，我們在明年的指南中納入了服務業務的良好成長，包括我們的服務中心和零件。與往常一樣，這將取決於銷量的成長以及售後市場方面的年度預期定價。

Next, we go to the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

接下來，我們轉到夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅系列。

Scott, I was just curious, you were saying that the supply chain seems better, yet the deliveries in the fourth quarter were a lot lighter than what most of us were looking for. So if you could kind of just connect the 2 dots there?

史考特，我只是好奇，你說供應鏈似乎更好，但第四季的交付量比我們大多數人的預期要少得多。那麼你是否可以將這兩個點連結起來呢？

Look, George, as you know, it takes many months to build an aircraft. So the improvements in both the labor side and the parts side takes a while to push through the system. So the higher cost and a lot of the impacts that we kind of saw through the course of the year were full year impact. So -- but I do feel like as we look at the numbers, and what we experience on a day-to-day basis, we did see improvements. And I think that's -- as a result, you'll start to see that improvement as you get into 2024.

聽著，喬治，正如你所知，製造一架飛機需要好幾個月的時間。因此，無論是勞動力方面還是零件方面的改進都需要一段時間才能推動整個系統的發展。因此，我們在這一年中看到的更高的成本和許多影響都是全年的影響。所以，但我確實覺得，當我們查看這些數字以及我們每天的經歷時，我們確實看到了進步。我認為，隨著進入 2024 年，您將開始看到這種改進。

And then 1 other one. The book-to-bill in the quarter was 0.9 and the orders were like only $1.4 billion. So that was really down a lot from last year as well as from the third quarter now. I guess you're just looking at as timing or to have anything to do with Noah's comment that people concerned about a recession in the fourth quarter, we get a pickup this year. But if you could just comment on that as well.

然後是另外 1 個。該季度的訂單出貨比為 0.9，訂單金額僅 14 億美元。因此，與去年以及現在的第三季相比，確實下降了很多。我想你只是在考慮時機或與諾亞的評論有關，即人們擔心第四季度的經濟衰退，我們今年會有所回升。但如果你也能對此發表評論的話。

George, I think it's largely timing. We always have a little bit of lumpiness in terms of when deposits are coming in on some of our larger customers, but there's -- I don't think there's anything concerning there. We've said all along, we expect there's going to be some quarters where it's going to be below 1:1, probably some quarters where it's above 1:1. But again, our assumption full year going all the way back through '23 was 1:1. We did better than that. Our assumption in 2024 is it's going to be 1:1, and obviously, we'll see how the market plays out. But I still think we feel good about the end market. We feel good about demand, and I think it's healthy.

喬治，我認為這主要是時機的問題。當我們的一些大客戶收到存款時，我們總是會遇到一些不穩定的情況，但我認為這沒有什麼值得關注的。我們一直在說，我們預計有些季度的比率會低於 1:1，也可能有些季度會高於 1:1。但同樣，我們假設從 23 年開始全年的賠率是 1:1。我們做得比那更好。我們對 2024 年的假設是 1:1，顯然，我們將看看市場如何發展。但我仍然認為我們對終端市場感覺良好。我們對需求感覺良好，我認為這是健康的。

And 1 last one. The strong Bell margin in the quarter, I mean, does that just really reflect the commercial delivery strength, which has much higher margins, more than offsetting, the drag from the lower-margin FLRAA program. And if that would continue next year, the margins would probably be somewhat higher than what you've guided to?

還有最後1個。我的意思是，貝爾本季強勁的利潤率是否真正反映了商業交付的實力，商業交付的利潤率要高得多，足以抵消利潤率較低的 FLRAA 計劃帶來的拖累。如果明年這種情況持續下去，利潤率可能會比您指導的要高一些？

George, I think look, we're continuing to see good margins on our military business, obviously outside of the FLRAA side. It certainly helps to have higher commercial deliveries. We -- I think we'll get some benefit of higher commercial deliveries as we talked about in 2024. But look, there's going to continue to be some pressure on the margins because we are seeing significant growth in the FLRAA program. The reason we did the cost action and did the restructuring was to try to shore up the profitability of the business on the legacy production programs.

喬治，我想，我們的軍事業務繼續獲得良好的利潤，顯然不包括 FLRAA 方面。這當然有助於提升商業交貨量。正如我們在 2024 年談到的那樣，我認為我們將從更高的商業交付量中獲得一些好處。但是，利潤率將繼續面臨一些壓力，因為我們看到 FLRAA 計劃顯著增長。我們採取成本行動和重組的原因是試圖提高傳統生產計劃業務的獲利能力。

And so, part of the guide is, obviously, we continue to see some benefit of that. But again, there will be overall margin rate pressure going into the future. But I think as we talked about, even with that and the growth of the FLRAA program, we're going to see significant revenue growth, and we're going to see absolute up profit increases and accretion to EPS for the business. So I think as we work through a transition from legacy production to a new EMD program. I think we can manage our way through that well. And obviously, long term, it's going to be a great story for Bell.

因此，顯然，該指南的一部分是我們繼續看到其中的一些好處。但同樣，未來整體利潤率仍將面臨壓力。但我認為，正如我們所討論的，即使有了這個以及 FLRAA 計劃的增長，我們也將看到收入的顯著增長，我們將看到絕對的利潤增長和業務每股收益的增加。因此，我認為我們正在努力從傳統生產過渡到新的 EMD 計劃。我認為我們可以很好地解決這個問題。顯然，從長遠來看，這對貝爾來說將是一個偉大的故事。

Next, we move to Pete Skibitski with Olympic Global.

接下來，我們請來 Olympic Global 的 Pete Skibitski。

Scott, can you expand on your opening comments regarding Kautex and your expectations there in 2024? It sounds like you think you might be a little bit weak there. Just was wondering what the drivers were?

Scott，您能否詳細說明一下您對考特斯的開場評論以及您對 2024 年的期望？聽起來你覺得自己在這方面可能有點弱。只是想知道驅動程式是什麼？

Sure, Pete. Look, that's one business where we really depend on sort of industry customer forecasts. So our guide reflects that. We don't really apply for a lot of our own judgment to that. We really go with where the industry tells us they're going, and we got to see how the year plays out. I think we feel good about the business. Some of the restructuring did was reflective of where the volume growth is and where the volume growth isn't. But the business is in a healthy place, and the margins have been doing better as we've come out of all the sort of the post-COVID world and the volumes will be obviously consistent with global auto OEM numbers.

當然，皮特。看，這是我們真正依賴產業客戶預測的業務。所以我們的指南反映了這一點。我們並沒有真正對此做出太多自己的判斷。我們真的按照產業告訴我們的方向去做，我們必須看看今年的情況如何。我認為我們對這項業務感覺良好。所做的一些重組反映了銷量成長的情況和銷售成長的情況。但業務狀況良好，隨著我們走出後疫情時代，利潤率一直在提高，銷售量將明顯與全球汽車原始設備製造商的數據一致。

Okay. Got it. And then I had a couple of questions on Aviation. Are you expecting Caravan sales deliveries to be up in '24? I know you delivered a lot of them to Asia, and we're seeing some softness in China. So just wondering what you're seeing there?

好的。知道了。然後我有幾個關於航空的問題。您預計 24 年大篷車銷售交付量會上升嗎？我知道你們向亞洲運送了很多，我們看到中國市場有些疲軟。所以只是想知道你在那裡看到了什麼？

Look, Peter, I mean we're not going to get into model-by-model. But I would say net of everything, the turboprop market is doing really, really well. As you know, that does tend to be a little bit more international. I think we usually give the numbers, roughly 60% international versus the jet side is 80%. But I think our Turboprop business is in a really good place. I think caravans will do well. I think carriers are going to be strong. We continue to ramp on the Sky carrier. So we tend to get most of the questions around Jet. But look, I think the turboprop business is in a very good place, and we certainly net expect to see that business continue to grow in 2024.

聽著，彼得，我的意思是我們不會逐一模型地討論。但我想說的是，排除一切因素，渦輪螺旋槳發動機市場表現得非常非常好。如您所知，這確實更加國際化。我想我們通常會給出數字，國際航班大約是 60%，而噴射機方面則是 80%。但我認為我們的渦輪螺旋槳發動機業務處於一個非常好的位置。我認為大篷車會做得很好。我認為運營商將會變得強大。我們繼續加大對天空航空公司的投入。所以我們往往會得到有關 Jet 的大部分問題。但看，我認為渦輪螺旋槳發動機業務處於一個非常好的位置，我們當然希望看到該業務在 2024 年繼續成長。

Next, we go to the question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cohen.

接下來，我們來回答 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cohen 提出的問題。

Yes. So Scott, at Bell, are you looking for -- is part of the profit strength this year '24 coming from closeouts on the V-22 and the H1? And secondly, is there any risk to FLRAA volume from an extended CRR?

是的。那麼斯科特，在貝爾，你是否在尋找——今年 24 年利潤增長的一部分是否來自 V-22 和 H1 的清倉？其次，延長 CRR 是否會對 FLRAA 數量造成任何風險？

So Cai, look, I think the 2024 -- obviously, we'll see some contracts come to an end, and there will be some MR release when you do that. But look, I think we can execute well on that pro forma. I mean, I think Q4 is a good example, Cai. We had about $8 million total in the company of EACs that's not a particularly material number and it's flat on a year-over-year basis. So do I think we'll have some reserve release next year? Sure, we will. I mean, we normally do as we perform through these programs. But I think the cost out activity that we've been driving, the absorption and growth on both the commercial revenue side as well as the FLRAA revenue side will all help to contribute to preserving and getting a good margin rate for 2024.

所以蔡，你看，我認為 2024 年——顯然，我們會看到一些合約結束，當你這樣做時，將會釋放一些 MR。但是看，我認為我們可以在準備考試中表現出色。我的意思是，我認為第四季就是一個很好的例子，蔡。我們在 EAC 公司的資金總額約為 800 萬美元，這並不是一個特別重要的數字，而且與去年同期持平。那我認為明年我們會釋放一些儲備金嗎？當然，我們會的。我的意思是，我們通常會按照這些計劃的執行情況進行操作。但我認為我們一直在推動的成本削減活動、商業收入方面以及 FLRAA 收入方面的吸收和成長都將有助於在 2024 年保持並獲得良好的利潤率。

And in terms of the -- I'm sorry, in terms of the CRR. Okay, I think we're okay. I mean, as we've talked about before, if the CRR goes all the way through a full year, that could put some pressure for sure. I think the Army probably has backup plans, they're trying to work in terms of how they would move money around. Obviously, FLRAA is a very high priority, very important program to them as well. So the whole thing would be a heck of a lot easier if Congress would just pass the budget for sure. But right now, I think we're okay unless it really goes to a full year, I think we'll collectively between ourselves and the Army to be able to manage through it.

很抱歉，就 CRR 而言。好吧，我想我們沒問題。我的意思是，正如我們之前討論過的，如果 CRR 持續一整年，那肯定會帶來一些壓力。我認為陸軍可能有後備計劃，他們正在努力研究如何轉移資金。顯然，FLRAA 對他們來說也是一個非常優先、非常重要的項目。因此，如果國會肯定會通過預算，那麼整件事情就會容易得多。但現在，我認為我們沒問題，除非它真的持續了一整年，我認為我們將在我們自己和陸軍之間共同努力，能夠度過難關。

Got it. And last one, at Aviation. Can you give us some color in terms of where the order strength is in terms of fractionals versus high net worth versus corporate?

知道了。最後一個是航空。您能給我們一些關於訂單強度在小數股、高淨值股和企業股方面的情況嗎？

It's pretty stable, Cai. We aren't really seeing a change from where we were. We don't break all that out, obviously, but it's -- the demand has been pretty strong. In terms of mix, as you know, the jet stuff tends to be more domestic, roughly 80-20, the turboprop is more like 60-40 international, we haven't seen big changes in that. We haven't seen big changes in the mix between what goes through the fractional world and what goes through the whole aircraft side, end demand continues to be, we think, pretty strong across the board.

蔡老師，還算穩定吧。我們並沒有真正看到與原來相比所發生的變化。顯然，我們沒有透露所有這些，但需求相當強勁。在混合方面，如你所知，噴射機往往更傾向於國內，大約 80-20，渦輪螺旋槳飛機更像是 60-40 國際，我們還沒有看到這方面的大變化。我們還沒有看到碎片世界和整個飛機方面的混合發生重大變化，我們認為，最終需求仍然全面強勁。

Next, we go to a question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們回答道格·哈內德和伯恩斯坦提出的問題。

Scott, in the past, you commented on the supply chain that you'd actually seen more challenges at Bell than you had in Aviation. And given the strong margins at Bell, I mean, can you comment on where that stands today?

斯科特，過去您曾評論過供應鏈，實際上您在貝爾看到的挑戰比在航空業遇到的挑戰還要多。鑑於貝爾的強勁利潤，我的意思是，您能評論一下今天的情況嗎？

Well, look, I listed the challenge of the world we're listening, right? I mean, we had some pretty significant impacts at Bell in the earlier part of the year around a very small number of suppliers, a couple of those suppliers either got healthier. In some cases, we brought stuff inside and exited those suppliers. So when you do that, we had a situation of Bell with a couple of the aircraft models where we had very specific supply issues that we were able to resolve.

好吧，看，我列出了我們正在聆聽的世界的挑戰，對嗎？我的意思是，今年早些時候，我們對貝爾的極少數供應商產生了一些相當重大的影響，其中一些供應商要么變得更健康。在某些情況下，我們將貨物帶入並退出這些供應商。因此，當你這樣做時，我們遇到了貝爾的幾種飛機型號的情況，我們有非常具體的供應問題，我們能夠解決。

And as a result, Q4 had a pretty strong delivery number on a year-over-year basis. So again, this is the challenge. So while the absolute number of parts might be getting less, you can still have a part problem that has a significant impact. So that's just the nature of the beast and what our guys work through every day. So I think we did resolve a couple of critical issues in the latter part of the year at Bell that enabled those higher deliveries. And obviously, we've got to keep working.

因此，第四季的交付量比去年同期相當強勁。這又是一個挑戰。因此，雖然零件的絕對數量可能會減少，但仍可能會遇到產生重大影響的零件問題。這就是野獸的本質，也是我們員工每天工作的內容。因此，我認為貝爾在今年下半年確實解決了一些關鍵問題，從而實現了更高的交付量。顯然，我們必須繼續工作。

And then if I go back to the Aviation side and the end market, 1 of the things we've seen is more preowned airplanes out there for sale, higher percentage. We're still not back at kind of historical norms. But you were commenting that you're seeing a little bit less pricing benefit relative to inflation. I mean are you seeing any potential pressure here from pre-owned and as you look at your market?

然後，如果我回到航空方面和終端市場，我們看到的一件事是有更多的二手飛機可供出售，比例更高。我們還沒有回到某種歷史規範。但您評論說，相對於通膨而言，您看到的定價優勢要小一些。我的意思是，當您審視自己的市場時，您是否看到來自二手車的潛在壓力？

No, we're not. Look, I think it's -- look, first of all, as you noted, it's up versus where it was, which was at ridiculously low levels. It's still at historically lower levels than normal. And we keep a very close eye on this. They're mostly much older aircraft, right? So the phenomenon that people kind of refer back to say, geez, you have aircraft competing with new aircraft sales. Obviously, there was a time, going back a number of years ago now, where you have relatively new aircraft that we're coming onto the market. And we're just -- we're not seeing that dynamic. When we look at what's out there, what's available for sale in the used market, the number is increasing, but they are considerably older and in large part, out of production aircraft. So, no, we're not really seeing an impact of used aircraft out there that are competing with new aircraft sales.

沒有，我們沒有。看，我認為——看，首先，正如你所指出的，它比原來的水平有所上升，而當時的水平低得離譜。它仍處於歷史上低於正常水平的水平。我們非常密切地關注這一點。它們大多是老舊的飛機，對吧？因此，人們回想起這現象時會說，天啊，你的飛機正在與新飛機的銷售競爭。顯然，有一段時間，可以追溯到幾年前，我們有相對較新的飛機進入市場。我們只是——我們沒有看到這種動態。當我們看看二手市場上出售的飛機時，我們發現數量正在增加，但它們相當老舊，而且大部分已經停產。所以，不，我們並沒有真正看到二手飛機與新飛機銷售競爭的影響。

And next, we go to Gavin Parsons with UBS.

接下來，我們請教瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。

I just wanted to circle back to industrial margins and just get a better sense for what's driving that, given I think context had been the section segment underperforming. And then just on, it seems like in TSV, some of your recreational vehicle competitors are having headwinds. So what's driving the margins and growth there?

我只是想回到工業利潤率，並更好地了解推動這一趨勢的因素，因為我認為背景是部分部門表現不佳。然後，似乎在 TSV，您的一些休閒車競爭對手遇到了阻力。那麼是什麼推動了那裡的利潤和成長呢？

Well, look, I mean, every -- we look at those end markets, be it in the auto side or in the vehicle side. And our view is, as I said, I think, overall, the industrial will be pretty flat, but with improved margins. And that's largely, again, based on just industry forecast, we think Caltex volumes will be down somewhat, although we think margins will continue to improve in that business. On the vehicle side, I think we'll see modest growth, and that is because we do factor in some of these higher dollar discretionary items. We don't expect to see growth in that area. But net of all of that, the business probably still see some modest growth, and again, continued performance on the margin line.

好吧，我的意思是，我們著眼於這些終端市場，無論是在汽車方面還是在車輛方面。正如我所說，我們的觀點是，總體而言，工業將相當平穩，但利潤率有所提高。這在很大程度上再次基於行業預測，我們認為加德士的銷量將有所下降，儘管我們認為該業務的利潤率將繼續提高。在車輛方面，我認為我們將看到溫和的成長，這是因為我們確實考慮了一些美元較高的可自由支配項目。我們預計該領域不會出現成長。但除此之外，該業務可能仍會出現一些溫和的成長，並且再次在利潤線上繼續表現。

So those things that you guys might aggregate and look at in terms of other guys in that market are completely consistent with what we're seeing. But again, that is absolutely factored into our guide.

因此，你們可能會根據該市場中其他人的情況進行匯總和觀察，這些事情與我們所看到的完全一致。但同樣，這絕對是我們指南中考慮的因素。

That's helpful. And maybe just circling back to the NetJets 1,500 over 15 years. I think typically, they firm up about a year out. But on average, that would be 100 deliveries a year. Is that something you need more visibility from them on over a decade of orders? Or...

這很有幫助。也許只是回到 15 年來 NetJets 的 1,500 名員工。我認為通常情況下，它們會在一年左右穩定下來。但平均而言，每年交付 100 次。您是否需要他們對十多年來的訂單有更多的了解？或者...

Well, we don't. And you're right. So we -- the way we treat the backlog is when those firm up and that is roughly 12 months, where they actually put deposits down, that's the point at which we move those aircraft into actual backlog. In terms of looking out beyond that, we do absolutely work closely with them on forecasting what that demand is going to look like even outside of that 1-year firm up period. So we certainly have very, very good dialogue and working with them to collectively anticipate what that demand is going to be on the fractional side. But then we don't firm up and put into that actual backlog number until roughly, as you said, that 1-year window.

嗯，我們不這樣做。你是對的。因此，我們處理積壓訂單的方式是，當這些訂單穩定下來時，大約 12 個月，他們實際存入存款，此時我們會將這些飛機轉移到實際積壓訂單中。就展望未來而言，我們確實與他們密切合作，預測即使在一年的穩定成長期之外，需求也會是什麼樣子。因此，我們當然進行了非常非常好的對話，並與他們合作，共同預測部分需求的情況。但隨後我們不會確定並投入實際的積壓數量，直到大致如您所說的一年窗口期。

And ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, this conference is available for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through January 24, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code of 4065507. And that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，請注意，本次會議可進行數位化重播，時間為東部時間今天上午10 點後至2025 年1 月24 日。您可以透過撥打(866) 207-1041 並輸入存取代碼來觀看重播4065507。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。