達信公司 (TXT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded for digital replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through January 24, 2025, at midnight. You may access the replay service by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 4065507.

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）本次會議將被錄音以供數位重播，並將於今天美國東部時間上午 10 點之後至 2025 年 1 月 24 日午夜提供。您可以撥打（866）207-1041並輸入存取代碼4065507來存取重播服務。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。請繼續。

Thanks, Leah, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

謝謝，利亞，大家早安。在我們開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和預期。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及今天的新聞稿中有詳細說明。今天參加電話會議的有德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly；以及我們的財務長弗蘭克·康納（Frank Connor）。我們的收益電話會議簡報可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.9 billion, up $3.6 billion in last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $384 million, up $78 million from the fourth quarter of 2022. During this year's fourth quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.60 per share, compared to $1.23 per share in last year's fourth quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $380 million in the quarter, up $12 million from last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, revenues were $13.7 billion, up $814 million from last year.

本季營收為 39 億美元，較去年第四季成長 36 億美元。本季分部獲利為 3.84 億美元，較 2022 年第四季成長 7,800 萬美元。本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 3.8 億美元，較去年第四季增加 1,200 萬美元。全年營收為 137 億美元，較去年同期成長 8.14 億美元。

In 2023, segment profit was $1.3 billion, up $191 million from '22. Adjusted income from continuing operations was $5.59 per share as compared to $4.45 per share in '22. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $931 million, down $247 million from '22.

2023 年，分部利潤為 13 億美元，較 2022 年增加 1.91 億美元。調整後的持續經營利潤為每股 5.59 美元，而 22 年為每股 4.45 美元。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流為 9.31 億美元，較 22 年下降 2.47 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. Our business has closed out the year with another solid quarter with strong margin performance and cash generation. Throughout the year, our team has worked to mitigate supply chain challenges to deliver products to our customers. At Aviation, while we ended the year with an expectation of a book-to-bill 1:1 solid order flow and customer demand across our product portfolio resulted in a year-end backlog of $7.2 billion, an increase of $782 million. Textron Aviation Defense delivered 13 T-6 aircraft for the year, up 10 from a year ago. During 2023, solid aircraft utilization within the Textron Aviation product portfolio resulted in a 6.5% growth in aftermarket revenues

謝謝，大衛，大家早安。我們的業務以強勁的利潤率和現金創造能力結束了這一財年，並再創佳績。全年，我們的團隊一直致力於緩解供應鏈挑戰，以便將產品交付給客戶。在航空領域，雖然我們預計今年底訂單出貨比將達到 1：1，但整個產品組合的訂單流和客戶需求均穩定，導致年底積壓訂單達到 72 億美元，增加了 7.82 億美元。德事隆航空防務公司今年交付了 13 架 T-6 飛機，比去年同期增加了 10 架。 2023 年，德事隆航空產品組合中飛機的穩定利用率推動售後市場收入成長 6.5%

At Bell, revenues in the quarter were up driven by higher commercial and military revenues. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 91 helicopters in the fourth quarter, up from 71 in last year's fourth quarter. For the full year, we delivered 171 helicopters in 2023, down from 179 in 2022. The higher military revenues reflected the continued ramp on our FARA program. On the FARA program, Bell completed the installation of the ITEP engine on the 360 Invictus, the team continues to conduct integration activities and prepare the aircraft for initial ground runs in 2024.

貝爾本季的收入受到商業和軍事收入增加的推動。在貝爾的商業方面，我們在第四季度交付了 91 架直升機，高於去年第四季的 71 架。 2023 年全年，我們交付了 171 架直升機，低於 2022 年的 179 架。在 FARA 專案上，貝爾完成了 360 Invictus 上的 ITEP 引擎的安裝，團隊繼續進行整合活動並為 2024 年飛機的首次地面運行做好準備。

Moving to Textron Systems. Revenue and margin were flat with last year's fourth quarter. During the quarter, Systems delivered the last detailed design and construction craft on the Ship-to-Shore Connector program following its successful completion of acceptance trials.

轉向德事隆系統。營收和利潤率與去年第四季持平。在本季度，系統公司在成功完成驗收試驗後，交付了船岸連接器專案的最後一艘詳細設計和建造船舶。

Moving to Industrial. We saw higher revenues in the quarter, driven by higher volume in Caltex and favorable pricing in specialized vehicles.

轉向工業。受加德士銷量增加和專用車輛價格優惠的推動，本季我們的收入有所增加。

Moving to Aviation. Pipistrel delivered 135 aircraft during the year, up from 61 in 2022. Also at eAviation, during the quarter, the Pipistrel Velis Electro was selected to participate for a trial period to explore operational and trading uses for this all-electric aircraft as part of Agility Prime, the Air Force's (inaudible) program.

轉向航空業。 Pipistrel 在年內交付了 135 架飛機，高於 2022 年的 61 架。 也交付了 135 架飛機，高於 2022 年的 61 架。

Summary, in 2023, the year we had a strong year across all of our businesses. We continue to execute on our growth strategy of ongoing investments in new products and programs to drive organic growth and margin expansion. During the year, Aviation announced the new Cessna Citation at (inaudible) base and Cessna Citation CJ3 Gen2 at NBAA. In May, Aviation delivered the first passenger variant of the Cessna Sky Courier (inaudible) Airlines servicing the Hawaiian Islands. In the third quarter, Aviation announced a new fleet agreement with NetJets for up to 1,500 aircraft over 15 years, including Longitude, Latitude and the newly announced Ascend, extending our 40-plus year relationship. In October, Aviation delivered the 100th Cessna Citation Longitude.

總結一下，2023 年是我們各項業務表現強勁的一年。我們繼續執行我們的成長策略，持續投資新產品和新項目，以推動有機成長和利潤率擴大。今年，航空部門在 (聽不清楚) 基地宣布推出新型賽斯納獎狀，並在 NBAA 宣布推出賽斯納獎狀 CJ3 Gen2。五月，航空部門交付了首架為夏威夷群島提供服務的賽斯納天空快捷（聽不清楚）航空客機。第三季度，航空部宣布與 NetJets 達成一項新的機隊協議，未來 15 年將收購多達 1,500 架飛機，包括 Longitude、Latitude 和新發布的 Ascend，延續我們 40 多年的合作關係。十月份，航空部門交付了第 100 架賽斯納獎狀經度飛機。

At Bell, we began work on the FARA program in April. The team continues to increase activity on the program, ramping up engineering resources, contracting with key suppliers and ordering long-lead materials.

在貝爾，我們從四月開始研究 FARA 計劃。團隊繼續增加專案活動，增加工程資源，與主要供應商簽訂合約並訂購長週期材料。

At Textron Systems, we advanced for the future tactical unmanned aircraft system competition and are now 1 of 2 remaining competitors down from the initial 5. Systems also continued to win on land vehicle programs advancing to the next phase of the army's XM30 program as part of TeamLink and was selected as 1 of 4 competitors to build RCV light protypes for the Army.

在德事隆系統公司，我們在未來戰術無人機系統競賽中取得了進步，從最初的 5 名競爭對手中減為 2 名，現在成為其中 1 名。 系統公司還繼續在陸地車輛項目中獲勝，作為 TeamLink 的一部分，進入陸軍 XM30 計劃的下一階段，並被選為 4 名競爭對手之一，為陸軍建造 RCV 輕型原型。

At Textron Specialized Vehicles, we introduced the new Street legal EasyGo Liberty LSV powered by our Elite lithium-ion battery system.

在德事隆專用車輛部，我們推出了由我們的 Elite 鋰離子電池系統驅動的新型街頭合法 EasyGo Liberty LSV。

At Caltex in 2023, we announced the first pentatonic order from an automotive OEM for thermoplastic composite underbody battery protection skin plate, establishing Caltex as a supplier to the expanding battery electric vehicle market.

2023 年，我們在加德士宣布了來自汽車 OEM 的首個五聲音階訂單，訂單內容是熱塑性複合材料底盤電池保護皮板，這確立了加德士作為不斷擴大的電動車市場供應商的地位。

In Aviation, during the year, we began system level (inaudible) of the first Nuuva prototype, our hybrid electric unmanned cargo vital aircraft in preparation for first flight in 2024.

在航空領域，今年我們開始對第一架 Nuuva 原型機進行系統級（聽不清楚）測試，這是我們的混合動力無人貨運飛機，為 2024 年的首飛做準備。

As we closed out 2023, manufacturing performance was trending positively with improvements in labor productivity and supplier deliveries.

隨著 2023 年的結束，製造業績效呈現正面趨勢，勞動生產力和供應商交付率都有所提高。

Looking to 2024, Aviation, we're projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume. At Bell, we're projecting rev growth in 2024 on higher military revenues from the FARA program and higher commercial revenues from increased deliveries.

展望 2024 年，我們預期航空業將實現成長，這得益於所有產品線的交付量增加和售後市場銷售增加。在貝爾，我們預計 2024 年的收入將會成長，因為 FARA 計畫將帶來更多的軍事收入，而交付量增加將帶來更多的商業收入。

At Systems, we're expecting slightly higher revenue as new programs continue to ramp.

在系統方面，隨著新項目的持續推進，我們預計收入會略有增加。

At Industrial, we're expecting flat revenues as growth in specialized vehicles is offset by lower-than-expected volume at Caltex.

在工業方面，我們預計收入將持平，因為專用車輛的成長被加德士低於預期的銷售所抵消。

At Aviation, we plan to continue investments in the development of technologies and products, supporting sustainable flight solutions for unmanned cargo, next-generation electric trainers, eVTOL and general aviation. We also expect higher aircraft deliveries at Pipistrel. This overall backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $14.6 billion, up 7% from 2023 and for Textron's 2024 fiscal year. We're projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $6.20 to $6.40. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $900 million to $1 billion.

在航空領域，我們計劃繼續投資於技術和產品的開發，支援無人貨運、下一代電動教練機、eVTOL 和通用航空的可持續飛行解決方案。我們也預計 Pipistrel 的飛機交付量將會增加。在這樣的整體背景下，我們預期德事隆 2024 財年的營收將達到約 146 億美元，較 2023 年和 2024 財年成長 7%。我們預計調整後的每股收益將在 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。預計退休金繳款前的製造業現金流將在 9 億至 10 億美元之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.5 billion were down $58 million from the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting lower volume and mix of $158 million, partially offset by higher pricing of $100 million. Segment profit was $193 million in the fourth quarter, up $23 million from a year ago, reflecting a favorable impact from pricing net of inflation of $51 million, partially offset by lower volume and mix of $22 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.2 billion.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下各部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。德事隆航空的營收為 15 億美元，較 2022 年第四季下降 5,800 萬美元，反映出 1.58 億美元的銷售和產品組合下降，但部分被 1 億美元的更高定價所抵銷。第四季分部利潤為 1.93 億美元，比去年同期增加 2,300 萬美元，反映出扣除通貨膨脹因素後的定價帶來的 5,100 萬美元的有利影響，但被 2,200 萬美元的銷售及產品組合下降部分抵消。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 72 億美元。

Moving to Bell, revenues were $1.1 billion, up $255 million from last year's fourth quarter, reflecting higher commercial revenues of $171 million, largely driven by increased deliveries and higher military revenues of $84 million related to the FARA program. Segment profit of $118 million, was up $55 million from a year ago, primarily driven by higher volume and mix of $39 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.8 billion.

貝爾的收入為 11 億美元，比去年第四季度增加了 2.55 億美元，其中商業收入增加了 1.71 億美元，這主要得益於交付量的增加以及與 FARA 計劃相關的 8,400 萬美元的軍事收入增加。分部利潤為 1.18 億美元，比去年同期增加 5,500 萬美元，主要由於銷售增加和產品組合增加 3,900 萬美元。本季末該部門積壓訂單價值為 48 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $314 million, flat with last year's fourth quarter. Segment profit of $35 million was equal to last year's fourth quarter. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2 billion.

德事隆系統公司營收為 3.14 億美元，與去年第四季持平。分部利潤為3500萬美元，與去年第四季持平。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 20 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $961 million, up $54 million from last year's fourth quarter, largely reflecting higher volume and mix at Caltex and a favorable impact from pricing at Textron Specialized Vehicles. Segment profit of $57 million was up $14 million from the fourth quarter of 2022, primarily due to higher pricing net of inflation of $18 million.

工業收入為 9.61 億美元，比去年第四季度增長 5,400 萬美元，這主要反映了加德士的銷售和產品組合增加以及德事隆專用車輛定價的有利影響。分部利潤為 5,700 萬美元，較 2022 年第四季增加 1,400 萬美元，主要原因是扣除通貨膨脹後的定價上漲了 1,800 萬美元。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $10 million and the segment loss was $23 million in the fourth quarter of '23, which reflected the research and development costs for the initiatives related to the development of sustainable aviation solutions. Finance segment revenues were $12 million and profit was $4 million.

德事隆電子航空部門 23 年第四季營收為 1,000 萬美元，部門虧損為 2,300 萬美元，這反映了與開發可持續航空解決方案相關的措施的研究和開發成本。金融部門營收為 1,200 萬美元，利潤為 400 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $45 million. Net interest expense was $13 million. LIFO inventory provision was $21 million, intangible asset amortization was $9 million, and the non-service components of pension and postretirement income was $60 million. In November, we announced a restructuring plan that resulted in pretax special charges of $126 million in the fourth quarter. We anticipate the restructuring plan will be substantially completed in the first half of 2024, resulting in annualized cost savings of approximately $75 million.

低於分部利潤。公司開支為4,500萬美元。淨利息支出為1300萬美元。後進先出法存貨撥備為 2,100 萬美元，無形資產攤銷為 900 萬美元，退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,000 萬美元。 11 月份，我們宣布了一項重組計劃，導致第四季度的稅前特殊費用達到 1.26 億美元。我們預計重組計畫將於 2024 年上半年基本完成，帶來約 7,500 萬美元的年度成本節約。

Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $380 million in the quarter. For the year, manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $931 million, down $247 million from the prior year. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.7 million shares, returning $283 million in cash to shareholders. For the full year, we repurchased approximately 16.2 million shares, returning $1.2 billion in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們在繳納退休金之前的製造業現金流為 3.8 億美元。全年退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 9.31 億美元，較前一年減少 2.47 億美元。本季度，我們回購了約 370 萬股，向股東返還了 2.83 億美元現金。全年我們回購了約 1,620 萬股，向股東返還了 12 億美元現金。

Turning now to our 2024 outlook on Slide 7. We're expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $900 million to $1 billion.

現在轉到幻燈片 7 上的 2024 年展望。我們也預期退休金繳款前的製造業現金流約為 9 億至 10 億美元。

Moving to segment outlook on Slide 8 and beginning with Textron Aviation, we're expecting revenues of about $6 billion. Segment margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 12% to 13%.

轉到第 8 張幻燈片上的分部展望，從德事隆航空開始，我們預計收入約為 60 億美元。預計分部利潤率約12%至13%。

Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $3.5 billion. We're forecasting a margin in the range of 9.5% to 10.5%.

就貝爾而言，我們預計其收入約為 35 億美元。我們預測利潤率在 9.5% 至 10.5% 之間。

At Systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1.25 billion with a margin in the range of about 11% to 12%.

在系統方面，我們估計收入約為 12.5 億美元，利潤率約為 11% 至 12%。

At Industrial, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3.8 billion and a margin in a range of 6% to 7%.

在工業方面，我們預計分部收入約為 38 億美元，利潤率介於 6% 至 7% 之間。

At Aviation, we're expecting revenues of $50 million and a segment loss of $25 million, reflecting our continued investment in sustainable aviation solutions.

在航空方面，我們預計收入為 5,000 萬美元，分部虧損為 2,500 萬美元，這反映了我們對永續航空解決方案的持續投資。

At Finance, we're forecasting segment profit of about $30 million.

在財務方面，我們預測部門利潤約為 3000 萬美元。

Looking to Slide 8, we're projecting about $160 million of corporate expense. We're also projecting about $90 million of net interest expense, $110 million of LIFO inventory provision, $35 million of intangible asset amortization and $265 million of nonservice pension income. We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 17.5%.

從第 8 張投影片來看，我們預計公司支出約為 1.6 億美元。我們也預期淨利息支出約 9,000 萬美元，後進先出法存貨撥備約 1.1 億美元，無形資產攤銷約 3,500 萬美元，非服務性退休金收入約 2.65 億美元。我們預計全年有效稅率約為17.5%。

Turning to Slide 10. R&D is expected to be about $550 million, down from $570 million last year. We're estimating CapEx will be about $425 million, up from $402 million in 2023. Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 191 million shares in 2024.

翻到第 10 張投影片。我們估計資本支出將達到約 4.25 億美元，高於 2023 年的 4.02 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Leah, we can open the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。那麼 Leah，我們可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And I would now like to start with Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

(操作員指示)現在我想先和 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu 交談。

Scott, maybe first one for you. How do we think about 2024 aviation deliveries and just book-to-bill in the context of your guidance?

史考特，也許你是第一個。根據您的指導，我們如何看待 2024 年的航空交付和訂單出貨量？

Sure, Sheila, I think we'll continue to see a ramp on the production side. As I noted, I think we did in the fourth quarter, start to see some improved productivity in the line. There are still some supplier issues, but number of parts coming into PO are improving somewhat. So I think that will help us continue to increase volume here as we go through into 2024. So I certainly see unit deliveries being up on a year-over-year basis. The market is still strong. I mean, obviously, our book-to-bill covers '24 deliveries quite well.

當然，希拉，我認為我們將繼續看到生產方面的成長。正如我所指出的，我認為我們確實在第四季度開始看到生產線的生產效率有所提高。仍存在一些供應商問題，但進入採購訂單的零件數量有所改善。因此，我認為這將有助於我們在 2024 年繼續增加銷售量。市場依然強勁。我的意思是，顯然我們的訂單出貨比可以很好地涵蓋 24 小時的交貨量。

But I think our expectation, as we said coming into the year was kind of targeting a 1:1 book-to-bill. We did better than that obviously in 2023, but our assumption as we go into 2024 is that we'll see a 1:1 book-to-bill. So the market is still good. I think we're seeing nice stimulation and some of the new products coming out, like CJ3 Gen2 has been really well received. Ascend, I think will start to also drive strong demand, and overall, the product lineup is in good shape. So I think market-wise, we're good, and we will see, obviously, to get to the guide of around $6 billion on Aviation side, we will see continued volume on both aircraft production as well as aftermarket growth.

但我認為，正如我們在今年所說的那樣，我們的預期是實現 1：1 的訂單出貨比。顯然，我們在 2023 年的表現要好於此，但我們假設，進入 2024 年，訂單出貨比將達到 1：1。所以市場還是不錯的。我認為我們看到了良好的刺激，一些新產品的推出，如 CJ3 Gen2 就受到了熱烈歡迎。我認為 Ascend 也將開始推動強勁需求，整體而言，產品陣容狀況良好。因此我認為從市場角度來看，我們表現良好，而且我們顯然會看到航空方面的預期收入達到 60 億美元左右，飛機生產和售後市場的規模都將持續成長。

Can we get to about 200 deliveries in '24? Do you think that's reasonable?

我們能在 24 年內完成約 200 次送貨嗎？你認為合理嗎？

We are -- as you know, we don't put a number out there, but it will be increased from 2023.

如您所知，我們並沒有公佈具體數字，但從 2023 年開始這個數字將會增加。

Got it. And if I could ask one of FLRAA just good progress on the program with (inaudible). But I think revenues were about $175 million in 2023, fell short of our expectations. And how do we think about 2024, we have about $850 million of FLRAA according to the budget. So, how is that (inaudible)?

知道了。如果我可以問 FLRAA 的一位朋友，該計劃的進展如何？ （聽不清楚）。但我認為 2023 年的營收約為 1.75 億美元，低於我們的預期。我們如何看待 2024 年，根據預算，我們將擁有約 8.5 億美元的 FLRAA。那麼，那是怎麼回事呢（聽不清楚）？

I think -- for sure, Sheila, I think our revenues were higher than that on FLRAA probably for the year. We won't break out all the details, but it was certainly just south of a few hundred million dollars. But we do expect as we go into '24. The program is reacting very nicely. As you know, like the number was lighter than we originally expected, just because of the delay with the protest in the early part of the year. But the ramp -- as we've ramped after the contract award is going really well. So I would expect a number closer to the $900 million range in 2024 on the FLRAA program.

我認為——希拉，可以肯定，我認為今年我們的收入可能高於 FLRAA。我們不會透露所有細節，但金額肯定超過幾億美元。但我們確實預計，隨著進入24年。該程式反應非常好。如你所知，由於年初抗議活動的延遲，這個數字比我們最初預期的要少。但是，我們在合約授予後所做的提升進展非常順利。因此我預計 2024 年 FLRAA 計畫的投資額將接近 9 億美元。

Next, we go to a question from Peter Arment with Baird.

接下來我們請聽聽貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment) 提出的問題。

Just maybe -- just circle back just on how you're thinking about kind of the margin leverage in aviation, Scott, when you think about just because you called out some of the pricing that you continue to get. How are we thinking about just kind of that flowing through? I mean just given the margin outlook of 12% to 13% kind of at the low end of the range, it's flat, but at the upper end, obviously, 100 basis points. Just how are you thinking about that?

只是也許 - 只是回到你對航空業利潤槓桿的看法，斯科特，當你想到只是因為你喊出了你繼續獲得的一些定價時。我們怎麼看待這種流動現象？我的意思是，考慮到利潤率前景在 12％ 到 13％ 之間，處於範圍的低端，它是持平的，但在高端，顯然是 100 個基點。您對此有何看法？

Sure. Look, Peter, I think we definitely expect to continue to see price net of inflation is a positive for us. It won't be as significant as it was in 2023, but we still have good pricing in the backlog, and I think it will be a tailwind for us. So if you look at the guide and the numbers, you're right. Look, I mean, we're -- as I said, I think we saw some improved performance in Q4 on the manufacturing conversion side. So we're bringing -- we're certainly baking some of that in as we go into 2024, but as you move towards the high side of the guidance, you get up into that 20-plus percent conversion, which is where we historically like the business to be. So it's something we've got to work on, obviously. We still have some of those headwinds that we faced all this year on the operating side, but the combination of improved performance and continued price over inflation is positive, while it's not as big a positive, I think, will help us get towards that 20-plus range.

當然。聽著，彼得，我認為我們肯定預計繼續看到扣除通膨因素的價格對我們來說是有利的。它不會像 2023 年那麼重要，但我們在積壓訂單中仍有良好的定價，我認為這對我們來說將是一個順風。因此，如果你看一下指南和數字，你就是對的。看，我的意思是，正如我所說，我認為我們在第四季度看到了製造業轉化方面的表現有所改善。因此，在進入 2024 年時，我們肯定會將其中的一些因素考慮進去，但隨著您朝著指導的高端邁進，您的轉換率就會上升到 20% 以上，這正是我們歷史上希望業務達到的水平。所以顯然這是我們必須努力的事情。我們仍然面臨今年在營運方面面臨的一些阻力，但業績改善和價格持續高於通膨的雙重利好，雖然利好幅度不是很大，但我認為，將幫助我們實現 20 以上的目標。

Got it. That's helpful. And then just Frank quickly, the interest expense increase, just maybe what's going on there specifically?

知道了。這很有幫助。然後弗蘭克很快說，利息支出增加了，具體發生了什麼事？

Well, go ahead.

嗯，請說。

Yes, a little. We've got slightly higher borrowing costs from the bond deal that we did last year. So that's a little bit of the rollover on the financing. It assumes slightly lower cash balances and a little bit of conservatism around the interest rate that we earn on that excess cash.

是的，有一點。我們去年的債券交易導致借貸成本略有上升。所以，這只是融資的一點點展期。它假設現金餘額略低，並且對於我們從過剩現金中賺取的利率持保守態度。

And next, we go to David Strauss with Barclays.

接下來我們請到巴克萊銀行的戴維‧史特勞斯 (David Strauss)。

Scott, I wanted to ask about the V-22 grounding. Does that impact Bell at all? I know you have a pretty big aftermarket business on the V-22?

斯科特，我想問一下有關 V-22 接地的問題。這對貝爾有影響嗎？我知道你們的 V-22 售後市場業務相當龐大？

No, David, I don't think it's a material impact. The services, frankly, are using the opportunity -- the grounding to continue to do their maintenance activities and get aircraft ready to fly. So we probably can't say much more about that situation than that. But no, I don't expect it to be a material impact.

不，大衛，我不認為這會產生實質的影響。坦白說，各部隊正在利用停飛的機會繼續進行維修活動，並讓飛機做好飛行準備。因此，我們可能無法再詳細談論這種情況。但不，我不認為它會產生實質影響。

Okay. And Frank, free cash flow. The guidance were flat. I know you had a pretty big inventory build in '23, but you also had positive advances. What are you assuming for working capital? And in terms of the adjusted EPS guide, what are you baking in as far as share count and share repo in '24?

好的。還有弗蘭克，自由現金流。該指引持平。我知道您在 23 年建立了相當大的庫存，但您也取得了積極的進展。您對營運資本有何假設？就調整後的每股盈餘指南而言，您對 24 年的股票數量和股票回購有何預期？

Yes. From a cash standpoint, we obviously are anticipating volume growth in the year. So that's going to put a little continued pressure on inventory levels as we look kind of to '24 and '25 volume growth, not a lot. There is a little bit of working capital pressure with the timing of some customer payment activity, particularly on the military side. Bell, in particular, had a very good year in '23 in terms of the timing of payment activity that puts a little bit of a headwind on cash flow. And then as you heard a little higher CapEx guidance kind of -- in terms of the spend there. So it's not any one item. It's kind of a little bit of headwinds on working capital associated with the things I mentioned and a little bit higher levels of investment. But we still think we're -- there's still very solid cash flow performance for the year.

是的。從現金角度來看，我們顯然預計今年的銷售量將會成長。因此，這將對庫存水準造成持續的壓力，因為我們預計 24 年和 25 年的銷售成長不會太多。一些客戶付款活動的時間會帶來一些營運資金壓力，特別是在軍事方面。尤其是貝爾，從付款時間表來看，23年是非常好一年，但這對現金流造成了一點阻力。然後，正如你所聽到的，就支出而言，資本支出指導價會稍微高一些。所以它不是任何一個單獨項目。這對與我提到的事情相關的營運資金和更高水準的投資來說是一種小小的阻力。但我們仍然認為——今年的現金流表現仍然非常穩健。

In terms of the share count, we talked about 191 million average shares. So kind of roughly 5% or so reduction in average share count for the year.

就股票數量而言，我們談論的是平均 1.91 億股。因此，今年的平均股數大約減少了 5% 左右。

Next, we go to Jason Gursky with Citi.

接下來我們請出花旗銀行的 Jason Gursky。

Scott, I was wondering if you could just spend a few more minutes on Systems and talk about the pipeline of opportunities there and the timing of potential awards kind of with the backdrop of what's going on with the budget in mind and whether things like continuing resolutions to go out half a year have any impact on kind of your expectations around those?

史考特，我想知道您是否可以再花幾分鐘時間討論一下系統問題，談談那裡的機會管道和潛在獎項的頒發時間，以及預算方面的背景情況，以及持續半年的決議等事項是否會對您的期望產生影響？

So the CR situation right now doesn't really worry me very much on the system side of things. As we indicated, Jason, we're going to be relatively flattish on the revenue in 2024, I'd say the pipeline is very strong. You look at some of these down selects on FTUAS, the ARV program, what used to be the OMFV program, XM30 program. A lot of these things are significant opportunities for us. Thay are really important down selects that we achieved last year. We'll execute on those, and they're not big growth programs so they don't really have a CR impact that I'm too concerned about. And there are virtually all programs that will have their next significant contractual award down select in 2025.

因此，就係統方面而言，目前的 CR 情況並不會讓我太擔心。正如我們所指出的，傑森，我們在 2024 年的收入將相對持平，我想說通路非常強勁。您可以查看 FTUAS、ARV 計劃、先前的 OMFV 計劃、XM30 計劃中的一些下選項目。其中很多事情對我們來說都是重要的機會。這些都是我們去年取得的非常重要的選擇。我們會執行這些計劃，而且它們並不是大型成長計劃，因此不會對企業責任產生我所擔心的影響。幾乎所有項目的下一個重要合約授予都將選擇在2025年。

So that's why you see us kind of flattish. We had -- I think 2023 was a hugely important year for the down selects on those really important programs, execute this year and you start to see the revenue growth driven by ultimately being final selection awards, EMD programs that award in 2025.

這就是為什麼你看到我們看起來有點平淡。我認為 2023 年對於那些真正重要的項目的選擇來說是極其重要的一年，今年執行後，您將開始看到最終選擇獎項所推動的收入增長，這些獎項是 2025 年頒發的 EMD 項目。

Okay. Great. And then just quickly on eAviation. We've got widening profitability losses they're projected for '24 on higher revenue. I was wondering if you could just kind of give us a broad brush update on the plans for that business? And at what point does the revenue potentially pick up here and you begin to see those profitability losses begin to contract? And kind of your overall vision for that business over the next, I don't know, 3 to 5 years?

好的。偉大的。然後我們簡單談談電子航空。由於收入增加，我們預計24年的獲利損失將持續擴大。我想知道您是否可以向我們簡單介紹一下該業務的計劃？那麼，什麼時候收入有可能回升，並且您開始看到獲利損失開始縮小？您對未來 3 到 5 年該業務的整體願景是什麼？

Sure. Absolutely. Look, keep in mind, there's 2 things going on in that eAviation segment, right? There's Pipistrel, which is our current -- it's a real business, real sales, roughly doubling the volume of aircraft sales from '22 to '23, roughly doubling '23 to '24. So I think the product lineup at Pipistrel is doing quite well. We're expanding distribution channels. It's a relatively small business, but it's doing well. What's driving the losses is these investments in R&D, particularly around the NEXUS program, that's something that won't generate revenue probably for several years and investment on, say, the Nuuva 300 which is our hybrid unmanned cargo which, again, this is a few years from revenue. And so that's part of why just we broke this thing out, right? So you guys see these investments, which are, frankly, not dependent or tied to the revenue within that segment.

當然。絕對地。瞧，請記住，在電子航空領域有兩件事正在發生，對嗎？還有 Pipistrel，這是我們目前的業務——它是一項真正的業務，有真正的銷售額，從 2022 年到 2023 年，飛機銷售量大約翻了一番，從 2023 年到 2024 年，大約翻了一番。所以我認為 Pipistrel 的產品陣容表現相當不錯。我們正在擴大分銷管道。這是一家相對較小的企業，但經營狀況良好。造成虧損的原因是這些研發投資，特別是圍繞 NEXUS 計畫的投資，這可能是幾年內都不會產生收入的項目，而對 Nuuva 300 等混合無人貨運飛機的投資，同樣，這需要幾年才能產生收入。這就是我們為什麼要把這個事情搞砸的原因之一，對吧？所以你們看到這些投資，坦白說，並不依賴或與該領域的收入掛鉤。

So the 2 big moving pieces in there in terms of the investment side are the Nuuva on the unmanned cargo and the Nexus on the sort of the eVTOL side, which, again, I don't think that has to be necessarily dependent to operability, but just GA in general. That -- both of those teams are making great shape. I think we'll see first flight of the Nuuva in 2024. We've also begun the assembly and wings and fuselage build on the NEXUS program in Wichita. So both programs are making very good progress, but they're both technology investment programs.

因此，從投資方面來看，其中的兩個大問題是無人貨運方面的 Nuuva 和 eVTOL 方面的 Nexus，同樣，我認為這不一定取決於可操作性，而只是一般的 GA。這兩支球隊都狀態很好。我認為我們將在 2024 年看到 Nuuva 的首飛。因此，這兩個項目都取得了非常好的進展，但它們都是技術投資項目。

Next, we go to the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們來談談高盛的諾亞波波納克 (Noah Poponak)。

Scott, we've heard some discussion in the business jet end market that even though 2023 was a decent order year that there's actually maybe some pent-up demand because it was so consensus that there was going to be a recession or something like it. And that in 2024 if we're having an inflation desell and rate cuts and some version of a soft landing that you could have your normal underlying demand plus anybody that deferred from '23. And so I'm curious if you hear that from your customers or your sales force and there's an upside case for bookings? Or is that too aggressive and just stick with book-to-bill of 1?

史考特，我們聽到公務機終端市場的一些討論，儘管 2023 年是一個不錯的訂單年，但實際上可能存在一些被壓抑的需求，因為人們普遍認為將會出現經濟衰退或類似的情況。如果我們在 2024 年實現通膨下降、利率下調和某種形式的軟著陸，那麼您就可以獲得正常的潛在需求以及任何從 23 年開始延期的需求。所以我很好奇，您是否從客戶或銷售人員那裡聽說過這個消息，並且預訂量有上升的跡象？或者這太過激進，只能堅持 1 的訂單出貨比？

Well, look, no, I think as I said at the beginning, we feel good about the end market. Customer dialogues are robust. Frankly, the only headwind that I see would run through is just on availability, right? People would like to get aircraft sooner. So we're -- I think our sales folks are out there working hard. There's no doubt there's demand. I think that's, as I said earlier, helped by the fact that we've got some new models that are coming out that are going to be really well received in the market. So, look, all in all, as we talked about, the book-to-bill number can change a little bit quarter to quarter, but I think we feel very good about the end market. I think we'll stick at this point with our kind of one-to-one in our base assumption as we did in 2023. And if the market remains that robust, we can exceed that number, which would be great. So look, I think the market remains strong. It's -- we feel good about it.

嗯，看，不，我想正如我在一開始所說的那樣，我們對終端市場感覺良好。客戶對話十分活躍。坦白說，我認為唯一遇到的阻力就是可用性，對嗎？人們希望能盡快擁有飛機。所以，我認為我們的銷售人員正在努力工作。毫無疑問存在需求。我想，正如我之前所說的，這是因為我們即將推出的一些新車型將會在市場上受到熱烈歡迎。所以，總而言之，正如我們所討論的，訂單出貨比數位每季可能會有一點變化，但我認為我們對終端市場感覺非常好。我認為我們會堅持我們的基本假設中的一對一，就像我們在 2023 年所做的那樣。所以，我認為市場依然強勁。我們對此感覺很好。

Okay. And I wondered if you could just maybe discuss a little more -- just how much better is supply chain, labor, your ability to get airplanes out the door. The delivery number was down in '23, despite all the demand, kind of to your point there on availability. Whatever the '24 delivery plan is, it's got to be up a lot to get to that revenue guidance. Do you feel like you really have that hitting the ground running in January here? And then as that pertains to the margin, why would price net of inflation not be better if that -- if pricing is still good, I know the rate of change matters, but if that -- if the cost inflation and disruption piece settles down significantly for you?

好的。我想知道你們是否可以再進一步討論一下——供應鏈、勞動力以及您們生產飛機的能力到底有多好。儘管需求很大，但 23 年的交貨數量卻下降了，這在某種程度上符合您所說的可用性問題。無論 24 年交付計畫是什麼，它都必須大幅增加才能達到該收入預期。你覺得你在一月真的已經開始行動了嗎？那麼，既然這與利潤有關，那麼如果定價仍然良好，我知道變化率很重要，但是如果成本通膨和混亂部分對您來說明顯穩定下來，那麼扣除通膨因素後的價格為什麼不會更好呢？

Well, look, I'd say I don't know how to quantify the exact number for you Noah, but there's a couple of dynamics here that make us feel good about it. Again, we saw better labor productivity, all the metrics we track in terms of training hours, direct -- charging to indirect, all those sorts of things, applied hours. We're positive in the quarter. We do track a number of parts that are late to PO. These numbers are getting better. Also, I think as you look at the '23 to '24, we have net less hiring we need to do to hit the ramp. Last year was a big year in terms of onboarding new people. As you can imagine, that's very disruptive. It's a lot of training that takes not just the new people, but it takes a lot of our capable people to help train and develop them.

好吧，看，我想說我不知道如何為你量化確切的數字，諾亞，但這裡有幾個動態讓我們對此感覺良好。再次，我們看到了更好的勞動生產力，我們追蹤的所有指標，包括培訓時間、直接收費、間接收費等等，應用時間等。我們對本季持樂觀態度。我們確實追蹤了一些延遲交付採購訂單的零件。這些數字正在變得越來越好。此外，我認為，展望2023年至2024年，我們需要進行的淨招聘將減少，以實現成長。去年是新進員工入職的重要一年。你可以想像，這是非常具破壞性的。這需要大量的培訓，不僅需要新人，還需要我們許多有能力的人來幫助培訓和發展他們。

We made a lot of investments in 2023 around new training facilities. So -- but the absolute number, we still need to onboard new people, for sure. But on -- the number of them is less than what it was in 2023, and that should be helpful.

2023 年，我們在新的培訓設施方面進行了大量投資。所以 — — 但就絕對數量而言，我們肯定仍然需要招募新人。但是 - 它們的數量比 2023 年少，這應該會有所幫助。

The supply chain thing, as I said, look, it is getting better, but it's still susceptible to the wrong part, not being available, right? I mean I think it's going to help us do less out of station work but we still have suppliers we're keeping a close eye on because a lack of delivery on their part could hold up an aircraft. So we're still being cautious about how we work through that, but it has improved. And like I said, there is really less hiring. I think most of our lines are flowing better as a result of all the things I just talked about. So that we do factor that into our ability to hit that larger number of aircraft deliveries in '24. And I think we'll get there.

正如我所說，供應鏈的情況正在好轉，但仍然容易受到錯誤零件的影響，無法使用，對嗎？我的意思是，我認為這將幫助我們減少站外工作，但我們仍然密切注意供應商，因為他們交貨不足可能會導致飛機延誤。因此，我們仍然對如何解決這個問題持謹慎態度，但情況已經有所改善。正如我所說，招聘的人數確實減少了。我認為，由於我剛才談到的所有事情，我們的大多數線路都運行得更好了。因此，我們確實將這一點考慮在內，以確保我們在2024年能夠交付更多的飛機。我認為我們將會實現這個目標。

Okay. That's good. I'm just going to ask one more. The Bell margin, pretty strong in the quarter, close to '23, well ahead of the initial plan. This '24 guide, 9.5 to 10.5, kind of flat year-over-year. There was a view that this was going to 7%, 8% as you ramped FLRAA, you're ramping FLRAA, that's not happening. Can you talk about how you're outperforming there and absorbing the FLRAA ramp is '24, the trough? Or does that still need to go down some number of hundreds of basis points before than going back up?

好的。那挺好的。我只想再問一個問題。本季貝爾的利潤率相當強勁，接近 23%，遠遠超出了最初的計劃。 24 年的指引為 9.5 至 10.5，與去年同期相比持平。有一種觀點認為，隨著 FLRAA 的增加，這個數字將會達到 7% 或 8%，但這是不可能的。您能談談您在那裡的表現如何，以及您如何吸收 24 年 FLRAA 的低谷嗎？或是仍需要下降幾百個基點然後再回升？

Look, Noah. I think, look, the team is doing everything they can to manage costs, control -- do the right cost actions here as we see the ramp down on some of these military production programs, and we continue to do that. Those were certainly better mix than a big cost-plus EMD program. So we still will have some pressure around the margin rate. But as we talked about that, the growth benefit of seeing this program ramp up, we believe will still generate accretive, not dollars. So even if we see some pressure on the margin rate, the business will still be contributing positively to the overall dollars and therefore EPS for the business.

看，諾亞。我認為，看，團隊正在盡一切努力來管理成本，控制 - 在這裡採取正確的成本行動，因為我們看到一些軍事生產計劃正在減少，而且我們會繼續這樣做。這些肯定比大型成本加成 EMD 計劃更好。因此我們在保證金率方面仍然會面臨一些壓力。但正如我們所討論的，我們相信看到該計劃的升級，成長效益仍將產生增值，而不是美元。因此，即使我們看到利潤率面臨一些壓力，該業務仍然會對整體收入產生積極貢獻，從而為業務的每股收益做出貢獻。

And next, we go to the line of Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們來訪問 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I was hoping to circle on Aviation. In the last few quarters, there's been more discussion of this performance as a negative variance to the profit walk. That wasn't part of the conversation. It was clearly price offset by a little bit of volume. So is it fair to think that, that bucket of performance that you all cite has materially become nonmaterial?

我希望能夠圍繞航空進行討論。在過去幾個季度中，人們更討論的是，這種表現對利潤成長產生了負面影響。這並不是談話內容。顯然，這是價格被少量銷量抵消了。那麼，是否可以公平地認為，你們所提到的那桶績效已經從物質上變成了非物質的？

Well, I wouldn't say nonmaterial. I would say, Myles -- and look in 2023, we had pretty significant price over inflation benefits. And I think we did talk through the course of the year that, that did help to offset some of the performance issues that were driven by these labor inefficiencies and supplier impacts and stuff like that.

嗯，我不會說非物質的。我想說，邁爾斯——看看 2023 年，我們的價格相對於通貨膨脹的收益相當可觀。我認為我們確實在全年討論過這一點，這確實有助於抵消由勞動力效率低下、供應商影響等因素造成的一些績效問題。

So I think, as you look at 2024, we're expecting improved margins. We're absolutely expecting significantly improved revenue and therefore, operating profit in the business. But the trade you're going to see is there's probably still positive price over inflation, but not as big a number. But you're going to have less performance issue to have to cover with that number because we do expect to see better efficiencies in the factories and lesser impact from the supply. So net of all this stuff, I mean, there's a different dynamic, I believe, in 2024. That's how we're going to get there than 2023. But the bottom line, you're going to see significant revenue growth and significant operating profit, including expanding margin in 2024.

因此我認為，展望 2024 年，我們預期利潤率會提高。我們絕對期待業務收入和營業利潤的大幅提高。但您將看到的交易是，價格可能仍高於通膨率，但數字不會那麼大。但是你需要用這個數字來彌補的效能問題會更少，因為我們確實希望看到工廠效率更高，供應的影響更小。所以，考慮到所有這些因素，我認為 2024 年的動態會有所不同。

Okay. And then on the restructuring program, you executed, I think, about 60% maybe was directed at Bell. Of the $75 million gross savings you talked about, how much net savings is Bell getting in '24? And also is Bell getting most of the lower R&D benefit?

好的。然後，在你們執行的重組計畫中，我想大約 60% 可能是針對貝爾的。您談到的 7,500 萬美元總節省額中，貝爾在 24 年實現了多少淨節省？而貝爾是否獲得了大部分較低的研發收益？

Well, look, I mean we don't -- we're probably not going to break that all the way down, but certainly part of why the discussion I just had with Noah around, why are we seeing some better margins and holding in there on the margin rates at Bell is this is part of why we took that restructuring action to control cost and manage our way as we reduce the volume in some of these historic military production programs.

嗯，看，我的意思是我們不會——我們可能不會把這個問題完全分解，但可以肯定的是，這也是我剛才與諾亞討論的部分原因，為什麼我們看到利潤率有所提高，並且保持貝爾的利潤率，這也是我們採取重組行動來控製成本並按照我們的方式進行管理的部分原因，因為我們減少了一些歷史性軍事生產項目的數量。

And so that's part of what's helping to sustain a better margin rate even as we see those programs ramped out. We just have to take the cost out of the business in the areas that we're largely supporting these big military production programs. So I won't put the exact number in there, but that's the dynamic that's helping to improve that -- for that margin.

因此，即使我們看到這些計劃被取消，這也是幫助維持更好利潤率的部分原因。我們只需要在我們主要支援這些大型軍事生產項目的領域中削減業務成本。因此，我不會在其中輸入確切的數字，但這就是有助於改善這一差距的動態。

And is R&D drop there mostly in Bell?

研發支出下降主要是在貝爾嗎？

Yes, it is. I mean, as you know, we don't break that all the way out. But look, we still had, as you recall, the delay of the FLRAA program in 2023, we had more of our own costs, still sustaining and supporting that program in the earlier part of the year, obviously, as that has ramped and become a full-blown contract, that's helping to reduce that number. The overall gross R&D, the business is still growing significantly as FLRAA ramps, but the net number in terms of the IRAD side is certainly shifted from that IRAD into the contract over.

是的。我的意思是，如你所知，我們不會完全打破這一點。但是，正如你所記得的，我們仍然將 FLRAA 計劃推遲到 2023 年，我們有更多的自己的成本，仍然在今年早些時候維持和支持該計劃，顯然，隨著該計劃的擴大並成為一份全面的合同，這有助於減少這個數字。隨著 FLRAA 的發展，整體研發總額、業務仍在大幅成長，但 IRAD 方面的淨數肯定會從 IRAD 轉移到合約上。

And the next question we have is from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. She has disconnected. We will move on to the next line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。她已斷線。我們將繼續討論羅伯特·斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard) 與 Vertical Research 的下一篇文章。

Scott, I just have to follow up on Noah's question about the supply chain and the parts behind at the moment. Are there any specific areas where you're seeing any problems like interiors that are holding things up?

斯科特，我只需要跟進諾亞關於目前供應鏈和落後零件的問題。您是否發現某些特定區域有問題，例如內部問題導致進展受阻？

Nothing that I would comment on a call. There's -- we all have our problem (inaudible), Rob.

我對通話內容沒有什麼評論。有－－我們都有自己的問題（聽不清楚），羅布。

Yes. Understood. And then secondly, there's been some press reports that Textron has been looking at some M&A competitions in recent months. I don't expect you to comment on that. But I'm sorry, if you could maybe reiterate your priorities for capital deployment as we start 2024?

是的。明白了。其次，有新聞報導，德事隆近幾個月一直在考慮一些併購競爭。我不指望你對此發表評論。但很抱歉，您是否可以重申 2024 年伊始資本部署的優先事項？

Sure. No, we definitely would not comment on that. And look, I think what we've talked about and Frank's indication on the share count of 191 million, obviously indicates that our priority continues to be a share buyback, and that makes, we think, at this point, a pretty significant benefit for our shareholders, and that's what we expect to continue to do in 2024.

當然。不，我們絕對不會對此發表評論。而且，我認為我們所談論的內容以及弗蘭克關於 1.91 億股股票數量的指示顯然表明我們的首要任務仍然是回購股票，我們認為，就目前而言，這對我們的股東來說是一個相當大的利益，這也是我們預計在 2024 年將繼續做的事情。

And our next question is from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess just asking about the performance at eAviation and kind of the improvement in productivity and parts availability that you started to see in the fourth quarter. Does that mean that in the first quarter, we can expect to see kind of a nice increase in deliveries and something that would kind of affirm the notion of being on track for the revenue guide for the year?

我想只是詢問 eAviation 的業績以及您在第四季度開始看到的生產率和零件可用性的提高。這是否意味著，在第一季度，我們可以預期看到交付量的大幅成長，從而證實今年的營收預期將有望實現？

Well, we're not going to get into quarterly guidance for sure, Seth. I mean, you certainly should expect to see a nice progression in terms of the revenue on a quarter-to-quarter basis over 2023, consistent with the guide of $6 billion of revenue for the total year.

好吧，塞思，我們絕對不會討論季度指引。我的意思是，你肯定應該期望看到 2023 年收入逐季呈現良好增長，與全年 60 億美元的收入指導目標一致。

Okay. Okay. Great. And then maybe just following up a little bit different twist on Rob's question. I know you probably won't comment on specific M&A reports. But the reports that we have read tend to deal mainly with the space end market. I wonder if you could comment on -- do you view that as an important and/or attractive end market into which to expand?

好的。好的。偉大的。然後也許只是對 Rob 的問題進行一點不同的解讀。我知道您可能不會對特定的併購報告發表評論。但我們讀到的報告主要涉及太空終端市場。我想知道您是否可以評論一下——您是否認為這是一個值得擴展的重要和/或有吸引力的終端市場？

I wouldn't comment.

我不會發表評論。

Fair enough. All right.

很公平。好的。

And next, we go to the line of Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請摩根士丹利的克里斯汀‧利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag) 發言。

Can you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can hear you fine.

是的，我們能聽到您的聲音。

On your restructuring actions, can you provide more details on what you're doing and what your expectations are for the timing and the size of the payback from your investments?

關於您的重組行動，您能否提供更多細節，說明您正在做什麼，以及您對投資回報時間和規模的預期？

Well, Kristine, as we kind of put out there, there's a sizable piece that's going into Bell, and that's really aligning our cost structure with the lower production rates on some of the historic military programs like H1 and V-22. That's a very -- in terms of cost and the mix of people within the business, the ramp obviously is net positive, but it's largely in the engineering program side of the FLRAA program. So it's a necessary action to align costs with the old historic production programs.

嗯，克里斯汀，正如我們所提到的，有相當大一部分資金將用於貝爾，這確實使我們的成本結構與 H1 和 V-22 等一些歷史性軍事項目的較低生產率保持一致。從成本和企業內部人員組合的角度來看，這顯然是淨正面影響，但這主要發生在 FLRAA 計劃的工程計劃方面。因此，將成本與舊的歷史生產計劃保持一致是必要的舉措。

As we also indicated, we're just -- we're aligning some of our plans on the auto side to understand where is demand around the world and rationalizing where we think it's appropriate to keep that business healthy with a high return and strong cash flow. So just -- there's bits in a number of other places. But we believe on a run rate basis, it's going to be about a $75 million a year positive impact to the business. And so that's, I think, a good return and why we decided to proceed with the program.

正如我們所指出的，我們正在調整汽車方面的一些計劃，以了解世界各地的需求，並合理化我們認為合適的做法，以保持該業務的健康發展，實現高回報和強勁的現金流。所以只是——在許多其他地方也存在一些問題。但我們相信，以運行率計算，這將為業務每年帶來約 7500 萬美元的正面影響。所以我認為這是良好的回報，也是我們決定繼續執行該計劃的原因。

Great. And maybe on Aviation, if I could do a follow-up. $100 million in pricing power for new aircraft is very healthy. And so if we're seeing -- if you're continuing to see bottlenecks and new aircraft production, can you talk about the demand environment for aircraft services then? And what's the pricing power in services, especially with the lack of new airplanes coming into the market?

偉大的。也許是在航空方面，如果我可以做後續報導的話。 1億美元的新飛機定價權非常健康。因此，如果我們看到 - 如果您繼續看到瓶頸和新飛機生產，那麼您能談談飛機服務的需求環境嗎？那麼服務的定價權又如何呢，特別是在缺乏新飛機進入市場的情況下？

Look, I think what we saw this year, which was strong growth, 6.5% on the services side. Obviously, that's a mixture between volume and pricing. I expect we'll continue to see good demand on that side, we certainly have that baked into our forecast. Aircraft are flying. Our customers are running the aircraft. They're doing its necessary maintenance. So I think it will continue to be a healthy part. Certainly, what we've incorporated in the guide for next year is good growth in the service business, both our service centers as well as the parts. And as always, that's going to be a function of both volume increases as well as annual expected pricing in the aftermarket side.

我認為，我們今年看到的是強勁成長，服務業成長了 6.5%。顯然，這是數量和價格的混合。我預計我們將繼續看到這方面的良好需求，我們當然已經將這一點納入了我們的預測中。飛機正在飛行。我們的客戶正在運行該飛機。他們正在進行必要的維護。所以我認為它會繼續成為一個健康的一部分。當然，我們在明年的指南中已經考慮到了服務業務的良好成長，包括我們的服務中心和零件。和往常一樣，這將取決於銷售成長以及售後市場年度預期定價。

Next, we go to the line of George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

接下來我們來聯絡夏皮羅研究公司的喬治夏皮羅 (George Shapiro)。

Scott, I was just curious, you were saying that the supply chain seems better, yet the deliveries in the fourth quarter were a lot lighter than what most of us were looking for. So if you could kind of just connect the 2 dots there?

史考特，我只是好奇，你說供應鏈似乎更好，但第四季的交付量比我們大多數人預期的要少得多。那麼您是否可以將這兩個點連接起來呢？

Look, George, as you know, it takes many months to build an aircraft. So the improvements in both the labor side and the parts side takes a while to push through the system. So the higher cost and a lot of the impacts that we kind of saw through the course of the year were full year impact. So -- but I do feel like as we look at the numbers, and what we experience on a day-to-day basis, we did see improvements. And I think that's -- as a result, you'll start to see that improvement as you get into 2024.

瞧，喬治，你知道，建造一架飛機要花好幾個月的時間。因此，勞動力方面和零件方面的改進都需要一段時間才能在系統中進行推進。因此，我們在一年中看到的更高的成本和許多影響都是全年影響。所以——但我確實覺得，當我們看到這些數字以及我們每天的經歷時，我們確實看到了進步。我認為，到 2024 年，您就會開始看到這種改善。

And then 1 other one. The book-to-bill in the quarter was 0.9 and the orders were like only $1.4 billion. So that was really down a lot from last year as well as from the third quarter now. I guess you're just looking at as timing or to have anything to do with Noah's comment that people concerned about a recession in the fourth quarter, we get a pickup this year. But if you could just comment on that as well.

然後還有另外一個。本季的訂單出貨比為0.9，訂單金額僅14億美元。所以這確實比去年同期以及現在的第三季下降了很多。我想你只是在考慮時機，或與諾亞的評論有什麼關係，即人們擔心第四季度會出現經濟衰退，但今年我們的經濟會回升。但如果你也能對此發表評論的話。

George, I think it's largely timing. We always have a little bit of lumpiness in terms of when deposits are coming in on some of our larger customers, but there's -- I don't think there's anything concerning there. We've said all along, we expect there's going to be some quarters where it's going to be below 1:1, probably some quarters where it's above 1:1. But again, our assumption full year going all the way back through '23 was 1:1. We did better than that. Our assumption in 2024 is it's going to be 1:1, and obviously, we'll see how the market plays out. But I still think we feel good about the end market. We feel good about demand, and I think it's healthy.

喬治，我認為這主要是一個時機問題。我們在向一些大客戶存款時總是會遇到一些問題，但我認為這沒什麼好擔心的。我們一直在說，我們預計有些季度的比例會低於 1：1，但可能有些季度的比例會高於 1：1。但是，我們之前對 23 年全年的假設是 1：1。我們做得更好。我們假設 2024 年的比例將達到 1：1，顯然，我們將看看市場如何發展。但我仍然認為我們對終端市場感覺良好。我們對需求感到滿意，我認為它是健康的。

And 1 last one. The strong Bell margin in the quarter, I mean, does that just really reflect the commercial delivery strength, which has much higher margins, more than offsetting, the drag from the lower-margin FLRAA program. And if that would continue next year, the margins would probably be somewhat higher than what you've guided to?

最後一個。我的意思是，本季度貝爾利潤率強勁，這是否真的反映了商業交付的強勁增長？ 商業交付的利潤率高得多，足以抵消利潤率較低的 FLRAA 計劃帶來的拖累。如果明年這種情況持續下去，利潤率可能會比您預期的略高一些？

George, I think look, we're continuing to see good margins on our military business, obviously outside of the FLRAA side. It certainly helps to have higher commercial deliveries. We -- I think we'll get some benefit of higher commercial deliveries as we talked about in 2024. But look, there's going to continue to be some pressure on the margins because we are seeing significant growth in the FLRAA program. The reason we did the cost action and did the restructuring was to try to shore up the profitability of the business on the legacy production programs.

喬治，我認為，我們的軍事業務利潤率繼續保持良好，顯然在 FLRAA 業務之外。這無疑有助於提高商業交付量。我認為，正如我們在 2024 年談到的那樣，我們將從更高的商業交付中獲益。我們採取成本行動和重組的原因是為了試圖支撐傳統生產項目的業務獲利能力。

And so, part of the guide is, obviously, we continue to see some benefit of that. But again, there will be overall margin rate pressure going into the future. But I think as we talked about, even with that and the growth of the FLRAA program, we're going to see significant revenue growth, and we're going to see absolute up profit increases and accretion to EPS for the business. So I think as we work through a transition from legacy production to a new EMD program. I think we can manage our way through that well. And obviously, long term, it's going to be a great story for Bell.

因此，指南的一部分顯然是我們繼續看到它的一些好處。但未來整體利潤率仍將面臨壓力。但我認為，正如我們所討論的，即使有這個情況和 FLRAA 計劃的增長，我們也將看到顯著的收入增長，我們將看到絕對的利潤增長和業務每股收益的增長。因此我認為，我們正在從傳統生產向新的 EMD 計劃過渡。我認為我們能夠很好地解決這個問題。顯然，從長遠來看，這對貝爾來說將是一個偉大的故事。

Next, we move to Pete Skibitski with Olympic Global.

接下來我們請出奧林匹克全球的 Pete Skibitski。

Scott, can you expand on your opening comments regarding Kautex and your expectations there in 2024? It sounds like you think you might be a little bit weak there. Just was wondering what the drivers were?

斯科特，您能否詳細談談對考特斯 (Kautex) 的開場評論以及對 2024 年的期望？聽起來你覺得自己可能有點弱。我只是想知道驅動因素是什麼？

Sure, Pete. Look, that's one business where we really depend on sort of industry customer forecasts. So our guide reflects that. We don't really apply for a lot of our own judgment to that. We really go with where the industry tells us they're going, and we got to see how the year plays out. I think we feel good about the business. Some of the restructuring did was reflective of where the volume growth is and where the volume growth isn't. But the business is in a healthy place, and the margins have been doing better as we've come out of all the sort of the post-COVID world and the volumes will be obviously consistent with global auto OEM numbers.

當然，皮特。你看，這是我們真正依賴產業客戶預測的一項業務。所以我們的指南就反映了這一點。我們其實並沒有對此做出很多自己的判斷。我們確實會順應產業的發展方向，看看今年的情況如何。我認為我們對這項業務感覺良好。部分重組確實反映了哪些地方銷售成長，哪些地方銷售沒有成長。但業務狀況良好，而且隨著我們走出後疫情時代的陰影，利潤率一直在不斷提高，銷量顯然將與全球汽車原始設備製造商的數量保持一致。

Okay. Got it. And then I had a couple of questions on Aviation. Are you expecting Caravan sales deliveries to be up in '24? I know you delivered a lot of them to Asia, and we're seeing some softness in China. So just wondering what you're seeing there?

好的。知道了。然後我問了幾個關於航空的問題。您預計 24 年 Caravan 的銷售交付量會上升嗎？我知道你們向亞洲運送了很多產品，但我們發現中國市場出現了一些疲軟跡象。那麼只是想知道你在那裡看到了什麼？

Look, Peter, I mean we're not going to get into model-by-model. But I would say net of everything, the turboprop market is doing really, really well. As you know, that does tend to be a little bit more international. I think we usually give the numbers, roughly 60% international versus the jet side is 80%. But I think our Turboprop business is in a really good place. I think caravans will do well. I think carriers are going to be strong. We continue to ramp on the Sky carrier. So we tend to get most of the questions around Jet. But look, I think the turboprop business is in a very good place, and we certainly net expect to see that business continue to grow in 2024.

瞧，彼得，我的意思是我們不會逐一模型地進行討論。但我想說，綜合考慮所有因素，渦輪螺旋槳飛機市場表現確實非常好。如你所知，這確實趨向於更加國際化。我認為我們通常給出的數字是，國際航班大約佔 60%，噴射機航班約佔 80%。但我認為我們的渦輪螺旋槳飛機業務狀況非常好。我認為大篷車會表現得很好。我認為運營商將會變得強大。我們將繼續加大對天空航空母艦的投入。因此我們往往會得到有關 Jet 的大多數問題。但我認為渦輪螺旋槳飛機業務目前處於非常好的狀態，我們當然預計該業務在 2024 年將繼續成長。

Next, we go to the question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cohen.

接下來我們請 TD Cohen 的 Cai von Rumohr 提出問題。

Yes. So Scott, at Bell, are you looking for -- is part of the profit strength this year '24 coming from closeouts on the V-22 and the H1? And secondly, is there any risk to FLRAA volume from an extended CRR?

是的。那麼，貝爾的斯科特，您是否認為——今年 24 年的利潤增長部分是來自於 V-22 和 H1 的清倉銷售？其次，延長 CRR 是否會對 FLRAA 數量造成風險？

So Cai, look, I think the 2024 -- obviously, we'll see some contracts come to an end, and there will be some MR release when you do that. But look, I think we can execute well on that pro forma. I mean, I think Q4 is a good example, Cai. We had about $8 million total in the company of EACs that's not a particularly material number and it's flat on a year-over-year basis. So do I think we'll have some reserve release next year? Sure, we will. I mean, we normally do as we perform through these programs. But I think the cost out activity that we've been driving, the absorption and growth on both the commercial revenue side as well as the FLRAA revenue side will all help to contribute to preserving and getting a good margin rate for 2024.

所以蔡，看，我認為到 2024 年——顯然，我們會看到一些合約到期，而當你這樣做的時候，會有一些 MR 被釋放。但是看，我認為我們可以很好地執行該形式。我的意思是，我認為 Q4 就是一個很好的例子，蔡。我們在 EAC 公司的總收入約為 800 萬美元，這不是一個特別重要的數字，並且與去年同期相比持平。那我是否認為明年我們會釋放一些儲備？當然，我們會的。我的意思是，我們通常會透過這些程序來執行。但我認為，我們一直在推動的成本削減活動、商業收入以及 FLRAA 收入的吸收和成長都將有助於維持並獲得 2024 年的良好利潤率。

And in terms of the -- I'm sorry, in terms of the CRR. Okay, I think we're okay. I mean, as we've talked about before, if the CRR goes all the way through a full year, that could put some pressure for sure. I think the Army probably has backup plans, they're trying to work in terms of how they would move money around. Obviously, FLRAA is a very high priority, very important program to them as well. So the whole thing would be a heck of a lot easier if Congress would just pass the budget for sure. But right now, I think we're okay unless it really goes to a full year, I think we'll collectively between ourselves and the Army to be able to manage through it.

就 — — 抱歉，就 CRR 而言。好的，我想我們還好。我的意思是，正如我們之前談到的，如果 CRR 持續一整年，那肯定會帶來一些壓力。我認為陸軍可能有備用計劃，他們正在想辦法轉移資金。顯然，FLRAA 對他們來說也是一個非常優先、非常重要的項目。所以，如果國會確實通過預算，整件事情就會變得容易得多。但現在，我認為我們還好，除非真的要持續一年，否則我認為我們和軍隊將共同努力，能夠度過難關。

Got it. And last one, at Aviation. Can you give us some color in terms of where the order strength is in terms of fractionals versus high net worth versus corporate?

知道了。最後一個是關於航空。您能否向我們介紹零散資產、高淨值資產和企業的訂單強度？

It's pretty stable, Cai. We aren't really seeing a change from where we were. We don't break all that out, obviously, but it's -- the demand has been pretty strong. In terms of mix, as you know, the jet stuff tends to be more domestic, roughly 80-20, the turboprop is more like 60-40 international, we haven't seen big changes in that. We haven't seen big changes in the mix between what goes through the fractional world and what goes through the whole aircraft side, end demand continues to be, we think, pretty strong across the board.

很穩定啊蔡。我們確實沒有看到與以前相比有什麼變化。顯然，我們不會把所有這些都透露出來，但需求一直很強勁。就飛機組合而言，如您所知，噴射機更傾向於國內市場，大約佔 80% 比 20% ，渦輪螺旋槳飛機則更多地是國際市場，大約佔 60% 比 40% ，我們還沒有看到這方面的大的變化。我們尚未看到分數世界和整個飛機方面的組合發生重大變化，我們認為，最終需求繼續全面強勁。

Next, we go to a question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來我們來回答伯恩斯坦的 Doug Harned 提出的問題。

Scott, in the past, you commented on the supply chain that you'd actually seen more challenges at Bell than you had in Aviation. And given the strong margins at Bell, I mean, can you comment on where that stands today?

斯科特，過去，您曾評論過供應鏈，實際上您在貝爾看到的挑戰比在航空領域看到的要多。鑑於貝爾的利潤率很高，您能否評論一下目前的情況？

Well, look, I listed the challenge of the world we're listening, right? I mean, we had some pretty significant impacts at Bell in the earlier part of the year around a very small number of suppliers, a couple of those suppliers either got healthier. In some cases, we brought stuff inside and exited those suppliers. So when you do that, we had a situation of Bell with a couple of the aircraft models where we had very specific supply issues that we were able to resolve.

好吧，看，我列出了我們正在聆聽的世界所面臨的挑戰，對吧？我的意思是，今年早些時候，我們對貝爾的極少數供應商產生了相當大的影響，其中一些供應商的健康狀況有所改善。在某些情況下，我們將東西帶進來並退出那些供應商。所以當你這樣做的時候，我們遇到了貝爾幾種飛機型號的情況，我們遇到了非常具體的供應問題，我們能夠解決這些問題。

And as a result, Q4 had a pretty strong delivery number on a year-over-year basis. So again, this is the challenge. So while the absolute number of parts might be getting less, you can still have a part problem that has a significant impact. So that's just the nature of the beast and what our guys work through every day. So I think we did resolve a couple of critical issues in the latter part of the year at Bell that enabled those higher deliveries. And obviously, we've got to keep working.

因此，第四季的交付量與去年同期相比相當強勁。所以，這又是一個挑戰。因此，儘管零件的絕對數量可能會減少，但仍可能會出現影響重大的零件問題。這就是事情的本質，也是我們的員工每天要做的事。因此，我認為我們確實在下半年解決了貝爾的幾個關鍵問題，從而實現了更高的交付量。顯然，我們必須繼續努力。

And then if I go back to the Aviation side and the end market, 1 of the things we've seen is more preowned airplanes out there for sale, higher percentage. We're still not back at kind of historical norms. But you were commenting that you're seeing a little bit less pricing benefit relative to inflation. I mean are you seeing any potential pressure here from pre-owned and as you look at your market?

然後，如果我回到航空業和終端市場，我們看到的事情之一就是出售的二手飛機越來越多，比例也越來越高。我們還沒有回到歷史常態。但您評論說，相對於通貨膨脹，定價效益略有下降。我的意思是，當您觀察您的市場時，您是否看到二手車有任何潛在壓力？

No, we're not. Look, I think it's -- look, first of all, as you noted, it's up versus where it was, which was at ridiculously low levels. It's still at historically lower levels than normal. And we keep a very close eye on this. They're mostly much older aircraft, right? So the phenomenon that people kind of refer back to say, geez, you have aircraft competing with new aircraft sales. Obviously, there was a time, going back a number of years ago now, where you have relatively new aircraft that we're coming onto the market. And we're just -- we're not seeing that dynamic. When we look at what's out there, what's available for sale in the used market, the number is increasing, but they are considerably older and in large part, out of production aircraft. So, no, we're not really seeing an impact of used aircraft out there that are competing with new aircraft sales.

不，我們不是。看，我認為—看，首先，正如你所說，它比之前的水平高，之前的水平非常低。從歷史數據來看，這一水平仍低於正常水平。我們對此保持密切關注。它們大多都是老式飛機，對嗎？所以人們回想起這種現象時會說，天哪，飛機與新飛機的銷售競爭。顯然，回溯到幾年前，當時我們向市場推出了相對較新的飛機。而我們只是──我們沒有看到這種動態。當我們查看市場上可供出售的飛機時，我們會發現其數量正在增加，但它們相當老舊，而且大部分都是停產飛機。因此，我們並沒有真正看到二手飛機對新飛機銷售產生競爭影響。

And next, we go to Gavin Parsons with UBS.

接下來我們請出瑞銀的加文‧帕森斯 (Gavin Parsons)。

I just wanted to circle back to industrial margins and just get a better sense for what's driving that, given I think context had been the section segment underperforming. And then just on, it seems like in TSV, some of your recreational vehicle competitors are having headwinds. So what's driving the margins and growth there?

我只是想回到工業利潤率的話題，更了解推動這一趨勢的因素，因為我認為背景是部分細分市場表現不佳。然後，似乎在 TSV 中，您的一些休閒車競爭對手正面臨逆風。那麼，推動其利潤和成長的因素是什麼呢？

Well, look, I mean, every -- we look at those end markets, be it in the auto side or in the vehicle side. And our view is, as I said, I think, overall, the industrial will be pretty flat, but with improved margins. And that's largely, again, based on just industry forecast, we think Caltex volumes will be down somewhat, although we think margins will continue to improve in that business. On the vehicle side, I think we'll see modest growth, and that is because we do factor in some of these higher dollar discretionary items. We don't expect to see growth in that area. But net of all of that, the business probably still see some modest growth, and again, continued performance on the margin line.

嗯，看，我的意思是，每一個——我們都專注於那些終端市場，無論是在汽車方面還是在車輛方面。正如我所說，我們的觀點是，我認為總體而言，工業將相當平穩，但利潤率將提高。這很大程度上是基於行業預測，我們認為加德士的銷量將有所下降，但我們認為該業務的利潤率將繼續提高。在汽車方面，我認為我們將看到適度的增長，這是因為我們確實將一些價格較高的非必需品考慮在內。我們預計該地區不會出現成長。但考慮到所有這些，業務可能仍會實現適度成長，且利潤率仍會繼續保持良好表現。

So those things that you guys might aggregate and look at in terms of other guys in that market are completely consistent with what we're seeing. But again, that is absolutely factored into our guide.

因此，你們可能會匯總並從該市場其他人的角度看待的事情與我們所看到的完全一致。但同樣，這絕對是我們指南中考慮的因素。

That's helpful. And maybe just circling back to the NetJets 1,500 over 15 years. I think typically, they firm up about a year out. But on average, that would be 100 deliveries a year. Is that something you need more visibility from them on over a decade of orders? Or...

這很有幫助。或許，15 年後，NetJets 的業績又會回到 1,500 的水準。我認為，通常情況下，它們會在一年左右後變得穩定下來。但平均而言，每年要送貨 100 次。您是否需要他們針對十多年的訂單提供更多的透明度？或者...

Well, we don't. And you're right. So we -- the way we treat the backlog is when those firm up and that is roughly 12 months, where they actually put deposits down, that's the point at which we move those aircraft into actual backlog. In terms of looking out beyond that, we do absolutely work closely with them on forecasting what that demand is going to look like even outside of that 1-year firm up period. So we certainly have very, very good dialogue and working with them to collectively anticipate what that demand is going to be on the fractional side. But then we don't firm up and put into that actual backlog number until roughly, as you said, that 1-year window.

嗯，我們沒有。你說得對。因此，我們處理積壓訂單的方式是，當這些訂單確定下來，也就是大約 12 個月後，當客戶實際支付了定金時，我們就將這些飛機轉為實際積壓訂單。從長遠來看，我們確實與他們密切合作，預測即使在一年的穩定期之外，需求如何。因此，我們確實進行了非常非常好的對話並與他們合作，共同預測部分方面的需求。但是，正如您所說，大約需要 1 年時間，我們才會確定並投入實際積壓訂單數量。

And ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, this conference is available for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through January 24, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code of 4065507. And that does conclude your conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，請注意，本次會議提供數位重播，可從今天東部時間上午 10 點開始至 2025 年 1 月 24 日為止。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。