達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through April 25, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 8546032.

感謝您的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員指示）本次會議正在錄製以進行數位化重播，並將於今天美國東部時間上午 10 點之後至 2025 年 4 月 25 日提供。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在，我想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。請繼續。

Thanks, Leah, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝，利亞，大家早安。在我們開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和預期。這些前瞻性陳述受各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件以及今天的新聞稿中有詳細說明。今天參加電話會議的有德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly；以及我們的財務長弗蘭克·康納（Frank Connor）。

Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenue in the quarter were $3.1 billion, up from $3 billion in last year's first quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $290 million, up $31 million from the first quarter of 2023. During this year's first quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.20 per share compared to $1.05 per share in last year's first quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions reflected a use of cash of $81 million in the quarter compared to $104 million of cash provided in last year's first quarter.

我們的收益電話會議簡報可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。本季營收為 31 億美元，高於去年第一季的 30 億美元。本季分部獲利為 2.9 億美元，較 2023 年第一季成長 3,100 萬美元。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流反映本季使用現金 8,100 萬美元，去年第一季提供的現金為 1.04 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, we saw higher segment profit at Aviation, Bell and Systems. At Aviation in the quarter, we delivered 36 jets, up from 35 last year, 20 commercial turboprops, down from 34 last year's first quarter. Aviation continues to see strong demand across our product lines that resulted in backlog growth of $177 million and in the first quarter at $7.3 billion. Textron innovations fleet utilization remained strong in the quarter, contributing to aftermarket revenue growth of 6% as compared to last year's first quarter.

謝謝，大衛，大家早安。第一季度，我們看到航空、貝爾和系統部門的利潤有所提高。本季度，在航空領域，我們交付了 36 架噴射機，高於去年的 35 架，交付了 20 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，低於去年第一季的 34 架。航空業對我們產品線的需求持續強勁，導致積壓訂單成長 1.77 億美元，第一季達到 73 億美元。德事隆創新車隊利用率在本季依然保持強勁，帶動售後市場收入較去年第一季成長 6%。

Throughout Q1, we saw continued improvements in our supply chain and hours attained in the factory, supporting delivery growth throughout the remainder of the year. At Bell, revenues in the quarter were up driven by higher military volume, reflecting the continued ramp of the FLRAA program. On the FLRAA program, we continue to progress through preliminary design reviews and expect to complete milestone B, which allows for the entrance into the engineering and manufacturing development phase of the program later this summer.

在整個第一季度，我們看到供應鏈和工廠工時持續改善，從而支持了今年剩餘時間的交付成長。貝爾本季的收入受到軍事業務量增加的推動，反映了 FLRAA 計劃的持續推進。在 FLRAA 計劃中，我們繼續推進初步設計審查，預計完成里程碑 B，這將為今年夏天晚些時候進入該計劃的工程和製造開發階段做好準備。

Also during the quarter, Bell received an award for the production delivery in Nigeria of 12 AH-1Z helicopters. V-22, the recently enacted FY '24 budget includes 5 additional aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2027. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 18 helicopters down from 22 in last year's first quarter. During the quarter, we continued to progress toward FAA certification on the 525 expected later this year.

此外，在本季度，貝爾還因在尼日利亞生產交付 12 架 AH-1Z 直升機而獲得合約。 V-22，最近頒布的 24 財年預算包括 5 架額外的飛機，計劃於 2027 年交付。本季度，我們繼續推進預計於今年稍後獲得的 525 的 FAA 認證。

Bell recently received its first order for 10 525 helicopters from Equinor, Norwegian state energy company.

貝爾最近從挪威國家能源公司 Equinor 獲得了第一份 10525 架直升機的訂單。

Moving to Textron Systems, revenue was flat and margin was up versus last year's first quarter. During the quarter, we received notification from our government customer of the termination of the shadow program. We're currently working with the Army on winding this program down. This decision reflects the Army's transition from shadow to the Future Tactical UAS system to fulfill the need of organic intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Earlier this month, we received notification that we were awarded options 3 and 4 of the FTUAS program, and we remain one of two competitors for this next-generation program. Also in the quarter, systems was down selected with one other competitor to design, develop and manufacture a 30-millimeter Autocannon Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle prototype for the U.S. Marine Corps.

轉向德事隆系統公司，營收持平，利潤率與去年第一季相比有所上升。在本季度，我們收到了政府客戶關於影子計畫終止的通知。我們目前正在與陸軍合作結束該計劃。這項決定體現了陸軍從影子無人機系統向未來戰術無人機系統的轉變，以滿足有機情報、監視和偵察的需要。本月初，我們收到通知，我們中標了 FTUAS 計劃的第 3 和第 4 選項，並且我們仍然是這個下一代計劃的兩個競爭對手之一。此外，在本季度，系統公司與另一家競爭對手一起被選中為美國海軍陸戰隊設計、開發和製造 30 毫米自動加農炮先進偵察車原型。

This 2-year effort will develop an innovative combat vehicle that provides mobile protective firepower for the marines. In addition, the Army's FY '25 budget request funds the design of the XM30 ground combat vehicle in preparation for the prototype build and testing portion of Phase 3 and 4 in the program's development. Moving to Industrial. We saw lower revenues in the quarter, largely driven by lower volume and mix and specialized vehicles. Kautex revenues were flat in the quarter. We are encouraged by recent trends in the hybrid space where industry is experiencing increased customer demand and OEM investments in hybrid platforms.

這項為期兩年的努力將開發一種創新戰鬥車輛，為海軍陸戰隊提供機動防護火力。此外，陸軍的25財政年度預算請求為XM30地面戰車的設計提供資金，為該專案開發第3階段和第4階段的原型建造和測試部分做準備。轉向工業。本季我們的收入有所下降，主要是由於銷售量、產品組合和專用車輛減少所致。考特斯本季營收持平。我們對混合領域的最新趨勢感到鼓舞，該行業正在經歷客戶需求的增加以及 OEM 對混合平台的投資。

Aviation, Pipistrel delivered 30 aircraft in the quarter, up from 13 in 2023. Also during the quarter, Pipistrel was granted an airworthiness exemption by the FAA for its Velis Electro trainer which will allow U.S. flight schools to use this all electric aircraft in their pilot training programs. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

航空方面，Pipistrel 本季交付了 30 架飛機，高於 2023 年的 13 架。說完這些，我將把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

謝謝，斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下各部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.2 billion were up $39 million from the first quarter of 2023, reflecting higher pricing of $48 million and lower volume and mix of $9 million. Segment profit was $143 million in the first quarter, up $18 million from a year ago, reflecting a favorable impact from pricing net of inflation of $14 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.3 billion.

德事隆航空的營收為 12 億美元，較 2023 年第一季增加 3,900 萬美元，反映出 4,800 萬美元的定價上漲以及 900 萬美元的銷售和產品組合下降。第一季分部利潤為 1.43 億美元，比去年同期增加 1,800 萬美元，反映出扣除通貨膨脹因素後的定價帶來的 1,400 萬美元的有利影響。本季末該部門積壓訂單金額為 73 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $727 million, up $106 million from last year's first quarter, reflecting higher military volume of $95 million, primarily related to the FLRAA program. This was partially offset by lower volume on the V-22 and H-1 programs. Segment profit of $80 million was up $20 million from a year ago, primarily driven by a favorable impact from performance of $30 million which includes $13 million of lower research and development costs.

移至貝爾。收入為 7.27 億美元，比去年第一季增加 1.06 億美元，反映了軍事支出增加 9,500 萬美元，主要與 FLRAA 計劃有關。這被 V-22 和 H-1 項目數量的下降部分抵消。分部利潤為 8,000 萬美元，較去年同期增加 2,000 萬美元，主要得益於 3,000 萬美元的業績帶來的有利影響，其中包括 1,300 萬美元的研發成本降低。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.5 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $306 million, flat with last year's first quarter. Segment profit was $38 million, up $4 million from last year's first quarter. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $1.8 billion. Industrial revenues were $892 million, down $40 million from last year's first quarter, largely reflecting lower volume and mix of $51 million, principally in the Specialized Vehicles product line, partially offset by higher pricing of $16 million in the segment.

本季末該部門積壓訂單金額為 45 億美元。德事隆系統公司營收為 3.06 億美元，與去年第一季持平。分部利潤為 3,800 萬美元，較去年第一季增加 400 萬美元。本季末該部門的積壓訂單金額為 18 億美元。工業收入為 8.92 億美元，比去年第一季下降 4,000 萬美元，主要反映了產量和產品組合的下降（5,100 萬美元），主要是在專用車輛產品線，但該部門的定價上漲（1,600 萬美元）部分抵消了這一影響。

Segment profit of $29 million was down $12 million from the first quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix at specialized vehicles. Textron eAviation segment revenues were $7 million and segment loss was $18 million in the first quarter of 2024 compared with a segment loss of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023, primarily related to higher research and development costs. Finance segment revenues were $15 million and profit was $18 million.

分部利潤為 2,900 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季下降 1,200 萬美元，主要原因是專用車輛的產量和組合下降。 2024 年第一季度，德事隆電子航空部門營收為 700 萬美元，部門虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季的部門虧損為 900 萬美元，主要與研發成本增加有關。金融部門收入為1500萬美元，利潤為1800萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $62 million. Net interest expense was $15 million. LIFO inventory provision was $20 million. Intangible asset amortization was $8 million and the non-service component of pension and postretirement income was $66 million. In the first quarter of 2024, we incurred $14 million in special charges under the 2023 restructuring plan, largely related to head count reductions to improve the cost structures of the Textron Systems and Bell segments in light of the cancellations of the shadow and FARA programs in the quarter.

低於分部利潤。公司開支為 6,200 萬美元。淨利息支出為1500萬美元。後進先出法 (LIFO) 存貨撥備為 2,000 萬美元。無形資產攤銷為 800 萬美元，退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,600 萬美元。 2024 年第一季度，我們根據 2023 年重組計劃產生了 1400 萬美元的特殊費用，主要與裁員有關，以改善德事隆系統和貝爾部門的成本結構，因為本季度取消了影子和 FARA 計劃。

We expect to incur additional severance costs in the second quarter in the range of $25 million to $30 million largely related to head count reductions in the Industrial segment. As a result, Textron has expanded its 2023 restructuring plan from a previously announced range of $115 million to $135 million in pretax special charges to a range of $165 million to $170 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.6 million shares, returning $317 million in cash to shareholders.

我們預計第二季將產生 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元的額外遣散費，主要與工業部門的員工裁員有關。因此，德事隆將 2023 年重組計畫從先前宣布的 1.15 億美元至 1.35 億美元的稅前特別費用擴大至 1.65 億美元至 1.7 億美元。本季度，我們回購了約 360 萬股，向股東返還了 3.17 億美元現金。

To wrap up with guidance, we are reiterating our expected full year adjusted earnings per share to be in a range of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. We also expect full year manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions of $900 million to $1 billion.

總結一下指引，我們重申預計全年調整後每股收益在 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。我們也預計，在扣除退休金繳款前，全年製造業現金流將達到 9 億至 10 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Leah, we can open up the line for questions.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。那麼 Leah，我們可以開始回答問題了。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll start with David Strauss with Barclays.

(操作員指示)我們將從巴克萊銀行的戴維施特勞斯 (David Strauss) 開始。

Scott, maybe if you could just dig in a little bit in the -- on the deliveries in the quarter. I think the mix was pretty strong but relatively flat year-over-year and you build a lot of inventory. So maybe just how the supply chain is doing? Did you want to deliver more airplanes than you ended up doing? And how do we think about how much deliveries could grow this year off of 168 last year?

斯科特，您能否稍微深入了解本季的交付情況？我認為產品組合相當強勁，但與去年同期相對持平，而且庫存增加很多。那麼供應鏈的運作情況如何？您是否希望交付比最終交付更多的飛機？那麼我們如何估計今年的交付量將在去年的 168 架基礎上成長多少呢？

Sure. David, look I think that we certainly expect to see nice growth on a year-over-year basis. The supply chain does continue to improve the number of hours that we're able to get in the factory in terms of labor hours that are productive hours post training and whatnot does continue to improve. So I think we feel pretty good about how things progressed through the quarter.

當然。大衛，我認為我們確實有望看到同比增長。供應鏈確實在持續改善我們在工廠中所能獲得的勞動時間，即培訓後的生產時間，等等，確實在持續改善。所以我認為我們對本季的情況進展感到非常滿意。

Look, we always have a few aircraft that we would like to have gotten delivered. We definitely had some things that got late in the quarter or just didn't get to where they could transfer in time. But for sure, the trend in terms of productivity and efficiency and throughput in the factory improved as we worked our way through the quarter. So a little bit lighter than we probably would have liked but not a big number. And I think again, the momentum is good, and we certainly are still feeling very good about our guide in terms of a nice increase in volume on a year-over-year basis.

你看，我們總是有幾架飛機希望能夠交付。我們確實有一些事情在本季末才完成，或者只是沒有及時轉移。但可以肯定的是，隨著本季的進展，工廠的生產力、效率和產量趨勢都有所改善。因此，它比我們希望的要輕一點，但不是很大。我再次認為，勢頭良好，而且我們對我們的預期仍然感到非常滿意，因為與去年同期相比，銷量大幅增長。

Next, we go to the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

接下來我們來談談 Vertical Research 的 Robert Stallard。

Thanks Scott, maybe we'll start with Industrial, a bit of softness there in Q1. I know this is a tough division to forecast given its short-cycle nature. But are we finally seeing the U.S. consumer rolling over here.

謝謝斯科特，也許我們可以從工業開始，第一季工業領域會有些疲軟。我知道，鑑於其短週期特性，這個部門很難預測。但我們最終是否看到美國消費者轉向這裡了？

Well, look, I think we talked last year Robert towards end of the year and in our guide that we expected to see the sort of high-end consumer dollars, sort of recreational personal transportation, stuff soften and we're seeing that. It's probably even a little bit softer than we would have expected. I think the automotive segment is pretty stable, which is fine. There are certainly some pieces in the vehicle business that are doing fine, but those high-dollar discretionary items have certainly softened.

嗯，看，我想我們去年和羅伯特談到了年底的情況，在我們的指南中，我們預計會看到高端消費資金、休閒個人交通等東西的疲軟，而我們看到了這一點。它可能比我們預期的還要軟一點。我認為汽車產業相當穩定，這很好。汽車產業中確實有一些產品表現良好，但那些高價的非必需品銷售量肯定有所下滑。

As you know, those are often financed. Finance costs are certainly higher than they have been. So we expected it to be softer, our PTV business, which has been a great business for us. It was a little bit softer than we would have expected, and that's part of what we'll have to do some additional restructuring on top of our initial plan to dial that in and avoid a situation where we put too much inventory out in the field.

如你所知，這些通常都是由融資獲得的。財務成本肯定比以前高了。因此，我們預計 PTV 業務將會更加疲軟，這對我們來說是一項很棒的業務。它比我們預期的要弱一些，這是我們必須在初步計劃的基礎上進行一些額外重組的一部分，以避免庫存過多的情況。

Right. And then maybe one for Frank. On the revised restructuring plan, do you -- how do you expect the cash impact of that to flow through? And do you expect the savings to be roughly equivalent to the restructuring charge?

正確的。然後也許還有一個給弗蘭克。對於修訂後的重組計劃，您預計將產生怎樣的現金影響？您預計節省的金額大致相當於重組費用嗎？

Yes. I think the savings will be ultimately in the area of $185 million or so kind of on a run rate basis and that we'll realize a fair amount of that by the end of 2024, but that will roll into '25 as well. The incremental cash is about $20 million in '24 for the additional restructuring, and we'll just absorb that into our cash guidance and overall cash for the restructuring for '24 is in the area of $60 million to $65 million. So -- but additional $20 million versus where we had been.

是的。我認為以運行率計算，最終節省的金額將在 1.85 億美元左右，到 2024 年底我們將實現相當多的節省，但這也將延續到 2025 年。 24 年用於額外重組的增量現金約為 2000 萬美元，我們將把它納入我們的現金指導中，24 年重組的總現金約為 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元。所以 — — 但與之前相比，我們又增加了 2000 萬美元。

Next, we move on to Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

接下來我們請出 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Can we start off with maybe Bell, Scott, if we look at margins, they expanded up 130 basis points of Bell to 11% despite maybe $180 million of large contribution on the top line. So how do we think about the moving pieces to profitability for the year to get to 9.5% to 10.5%?

我們可以從貝爾開始嗎？那麼，我們如何考慮影響今年獲利能力的因素，以實現 9.5% 至 10.5% 的目標呢？

Well, I think we'll probably still end up in that range, Sheila. We had a strong Q1, obviously. We did have, as we noted there, a settlement on initial property-related lawsuit that gave us a little bit of a boost in the quarter. But I would say the team is performing well. As you know, we did restructuring actions to try to deal with the loss of the FARA program. We were able in a number of cases to take some of the appropriate engineering count and move that over to the FARA program, which helped us ramp that program up.

好吧，我認為我們可能仍會處於這個範圍內，希拉。顯然，我們第一季表現強勁。正如我們所指出的，我們確實就最初的財產相關訴訟達成了和解，這給我們本季的業績帶來了一點提振。但我想說球隊的表現很好。如你所知，我們採取了重組措施，試圖應對 FARA 計劃的損失。在許多情況下，我們能夠將一些適當的工程計數轉移到 FARA 計劃，這有助於我們加快該計劃的進程。

But we also had to take some cost actions, both in the -- as a result of the loss of the FARA program as well as some of the lower production quantities. Obviously, it will certainly help us as we start to see some flow of the Nigerian H1 where that gets that line back up and going again, the extra 5 on V-22, which is above the original program of record is certainly a nice add, and we'll start to see some of that flow through in the latter part of the year. So I think Bell had a strong quarter. We're continuing to focus very much on cost to deal with the mix issues there. But we'll clearly end up towards the high side of the guidance on Bell, I think they're performing well.

但我們還必須採取一些成本措施，這是由於 FARA 計劃的損失以及生產數量較低造成的。顯然，它肯定會對我們有所幫助，因為我們開始看到尼日利亞 H1 的一些流量，這會使該線路恢復並再次運行，V-22 上的額外 5 個，高於原始記錄計劃，當然是一個很好的補充，我們將在今年下半年開始看到其中的一些流量。所以我認為貝爾本季表現強勁。我們將繼續專注於解決混合問題的成本。但我們顯然會傾向於貝爾的預期高值，我認為他們的表現很好。

Great. And then if I could ask one on Aviation, orders held up pretty well, book-to-bill above 1x. Maybe if you could provide any color on what you're seeing from your customers. One of your competitors noted interest rates are potentially prohibiting orders? If you could just comment on that?

偉大的。然後，如果我可以問一個關於航空業的問題，訂單保持得相當好，訂單出貨比超過 1 倍。也許您可以提供一些關於您從客戶那裡看到的情況的細節。您的一位競爭對手指出利率可能會禁止訂單？您能對此做出評論嗎？

Sheila, we continue to see real good strength across pretty much all the product lines in the business. So we're feeling pretty good about the order flow a lot of these aircraft are going to deliver a couple of years from now. So from a financing standpoint, I don't know, we don't -- I guess here is as much about that, but the order activity was staying pretty strong, very positive.

希拉，我們繼續看到該業務幾乎所有產品線都表現出真正的強勁實力。因此，我們對未來幾年大量飛機的交付訂單流感到非常滿意。因此，從融資的角度來看，我不知道，我們不知道 - 我想這裡就是關於這一點，但訂單活動保持相當強勁，非常積極。

Next, we go to Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

接下來我們請出 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

Scott, I was wondering if you could touch on the supply chain within Bell. Obviously, the 1Q seasonally light usually for the commercial helos but down year-on-year. And then also the comment you made on the 525 certification at year-end. I know that, I wonder if your business heads had been quoted is getting more confident on that into the year-end. Could you also comment on your confidence level of that certification?

史考特，我想知道您是否可以談談貝爾內部的供應鏈。顯然，第一季對於商用直升機來說通常屬於季節性淡季，但比去年同期有所下降。還有您對年底 525 認證所發表的評論。我知道，我想知道你們的業務主管是否對此在年底變得更有信心。您能否評論一下您對該認證的信心程度？

Sure. Look, the Bell supply chain continues to I would say, improve. We always have a number of parts that are sort of problem children. We're continuing to work that. But in general, I think we are able to manage our way through that. And I don't think there's anything new or surprising that would have, in any way, affect our guide as we think about Bell commercial volumes through the course of the year.

當然。你看，我想說貝爾的供應鏈在持續改善。我們總是有一些類似問題兒童的部分。我們正在繼續努力。但總的來說，我認為我們能夠解決這個問題。而且我認為，當我們考慮貝爾全年的商業交易量時，不會有任何新的或令人驚訝的事情以任何方式影響我們的指南。

We did have a very strong Q4, obviously, on the commercial deliveries and so a little lighter maybe than we expected in Q1, but I think we're in good shape. And order activity there also remains very healthy. So I think Bell is in a good place. 525 flight test is going very well. The FAA flight testing portion, we're well into that. We have a few more performance flight test and then we go through sort of what they call FNR, which is about 150 hours of just durability reliability flying.

顯然，我們在第四季度的商業交付方面表現非常強勁，因此可能比我們預期的第一季要少一些，但我認為我們的狀況良好。那裡的訂單活動也保持著非常健康的狀態。所以我認為貝爾的處境很好。 525飛行試驗進展順利。我們已經完成了 FAA 飛行測試部分。我們進行了一些性能飛行測試，然後進行了所謂的 FNR，大約 150 小時的耐久性可靠性飛行。

And obviously, as you guys know, we've been flying that aircraft for a long time. It's proven to be very durable, reliable aircraft. So I don't think we'll have any issues going through there. So we'll we should wrap up flight testing year as we get to midyear. And as you know, there's a fair bit of paperwork processing and final documents and all that kind of stuff that have to go before the final certification. But I'd say at this point, we feel pretty good about where it is.

顯然，正如你們所知，我們已經駕駛這架飛機很久了。事實證明它是一架非常耐用、可靠的飛機。因此我認為我們不會遇到任何問題。因此，我們應該在年中時結束飛行測試年。如您所知，在最終認證之前，需要處理大量的文書工作和最終文件以及所有這類東西。但我想說，就目前情況而言，我們感覺相當滿意。

And if it were certified, what would be sort of the production rate that you target over the next few years?

如果獲得認證，未來幾年你們的目標生產力是多少？

Yes. We haven't released a production rate on the 525.

是的。我們尚未公佈 525 的生產率。

And our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德 (Baird) 的彼得·阿門特 (Peter Arment)。

Scott, nice results. Did you quantify what the settlement was in the Bell that affected the margins this quarter?

斯科特，結果不錯。您是否量化了貝爾的和解金額，從而影響了本季的利潤率？

No, we didn't. I mean, it's not a huge number, Peter, but it's not that helped the margin rate a little bit in the quarter.

沒有。我的意思是，彼得，這不是一個巨大的數字，但它並沒有對本季的利潤率產生一點幫助。

Okay. Okay. So I just want to clarify that. And then just a quick one for you, Frank. We expected that you would have higher corporate expenses in Q1. Just wondering, just from a modeling perspective calibrate the rest of The Street. Are we thinking more evenly spread for the balance of the year for your $160 million target?

好的。好的。所以我只是想澄清這一點。接下來我只想告訴你一個簡短的問題，法蘭克。我們預計您第一季的公司支出將會更高。只是想知道，僅從建模的角度校準街道的其餘部分。我們是否考慮更均勻地分配今年剩餘的資金以達到您 1.6 億美元的目標？

Yes. As you know, that bounces around depending on where the share price is, but kind of we expected, it certainly will not be as volatile or may not be as volatile for the rest of the year. So we'll see. But yes, we're still sticking with the same target for the full year.

是的。如你所知，這會根據股價的走勢而波動，但正如我們預期的那樣，今年剩餘時間內股價肯定不會那麼波動，或者可能不會那麼波動。我們拭目以待。但是的，我們仍然堅持全年相同的目標。

Next, we have a question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

接下來，我們有來自 TD Cowen 的 Cai von Rumohr 的問題。

Yes. So your competitors, Gulfstream and Embraer basically had higher biz jet deliveries and we're kind of closer to where they expected to be. And yet you guys continue to struggle. Is part of that related to geography that you guys are in Wichita and you have to fight with Spirit to get people because they're trying to ramp to. And that, therefore, this is going to be a longer slog than maybe others are going to see?

是的。因此，您的競爭對手灣流和巴西航空工業公司的公務機交付量基本上更高，而我們的交付量也更接近他們的預期。但你們仍然在繼續奮鬥。部分原因是否與地理位置有關，因為你們在威奇托，所以你們必須與 Spirit 爭奪人手，因為他們正在努力爭取。因此，這將是一場比其他人想像的更長的艱苦鬥爭？

Cai, I mean I thought we feel pretty good about our deliveries. We always would like to get another couple of jets here and there, but I think we're doing pretty good and feeling good about where we are. On the labor front, where we expect it to be. So I don't see a problem with our labor situation in which (inaudible) I think everybody has been challenged by higher turnover rates just in terms of the amount of churn.

蔡，我的意思是，我認為我們對我們的交付感到非常滿意。我們總是希望能再獲得幾架飛機，但我認為我們做得很好，對目前的狀況感到滿意。在勞動力方面，情況正如我們所預料的。因此，我認為我們的勞動力狀況沒有任何問題，（聽不清楚）我認為從員工流失量來看，每個人都面臨更高的員工流動率的挑戰。

And that's really been one of the biggest impacts to us on the productivity efficiency side is the number of people that come in and rotate back out, but I think most companies in all industries, frankly, are seeing that. But no, I don't think we have a -- we certainly don't feel like we have a macro unsolvable problem. It's improved significantly. The number of employees is where we needed to be.

而這對我們的生產力效率方面影響最大的一點就是進出人員的數量，坦白說，我認為各行各業的大多數公司都看到了這一點。但不，我不認為我們有——我們當然不覺得我們有一個宏觀無法解決的問題。已經有顯著改善了。員工數量正是我們需要的數量。

And I expect we'll -- as I said, we will continue to see a ramp on deliveries as we go through the year.

而且我預計，正如我所說，隨著時間推移，我們將繼續看到交付量的成長。

Great. And sort of maybe going back to Myles' question. So energy prices are up 525 is clearly targeting that market. You've got an order for 10, do delivery start relatively early next year? So could we start to see some pretty good build on that program?

偉大的。也許可以回到邁爾斯的問題。因此，能源價格上漲525顯然是針對該市場。您有 10 份訂單，明年會相對較早開始交貨嗎？那麼我們能否開始看到該計劃的一些相當不錯的進展呢？

Well, we're already ramping up the production side of the program to start to meet deliveries, but I suspect those deliveries will be in the late '25 sort of time frame. I think we're in a very good place in terms of the cycle, as you alluded to. Obviously, Equinor is an energy company, and those are for oil and gas offshore applications, and we have several other customers who were in, I'd say, positive latter stage negotiations that are primarily aimed at the oil and gas market right now. So it's certainly a favorable time to be getting these things through certification. And I think it fits a nice place in that end market.

嗯，我們已經在加大專案的生產力度，開始滿足交付要求，但我預計交付時間將在 2025 年底左右。正如您所提到的，我認為就週期而言我們處於非常好的位置。顯然，Equinor 是一家能源公司，這些都是用於石油和天然氣海上應用，我們還有其他幾個客戶，我想說，他們正在進行積極的後期談判，主要針對目前的石油和天然氣市場。因此，現在無疑是獲得這些產品認證的有利時機。我認為它在終端市場佔有一席之地。

Next, we go to Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來我們請出摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I guess, Scott, you called out the contribution to EBIT growth from pricing at Aviation, and we'll see more about the other components in the queue. It looks like the compares for pricing get somewhat tougher from here, should we think about I know you probably have some visibility into the backlog here. Should we think about the $14 million of year-on-year pricing being a relatively high level compared to what we're likely to see for the rest of the year given that those compares get harder?

非常感謝。大家早安。我想，斯科特，你提到了航空定價對息稅前利潤增長的貢獻，我們將在隊列中看到更多有關其他組成部分的資訊。從現在開始，定價的比較似乎變得更加困難，我們是否應該考慮一下，我知道您可能對這裡的積壓情況有所了解。鑑於這些比較變得越來越困難，我們是否應該認為 1,400 萬美元的同比定價與今年剩餘時間可能看到的價格相比是一個相對較高的水平？

Yes. I think it kind of is pretty stable through the course of the year. I mean we do have obviously very good visibility to the pricing side of things because they're all in the backlog. Obviously, what's important to us is to maintain that spread of net pricing over inflation. And so that's really most of the work as we go through the course of the year is just managing the inflation numbers around supply base and things like that. So -- but I would expect to see positive price over inflation through the course of the year.

是的。我認為全年來看它還是相當穩定的。我的意思是，我們確實對定價方面的事情有很好的了解，因為它們都在積壓中。顯然，對我們來說重要的是保持淨定價與通膨之間的差距。所以，我們全年的大部分工作其實就是管理供應基礎的通貨膨脹數字等等。所以 — — 但我預計全年價格將高於通膨。

Okay. Okay. And then just a follow-up, I think you talked earlier about potentially some upside at Bell. I talked about being in good shape at Aviation. I mean when we think about where industrial came in, in the first quarter and where the guidance is, it looks like they're going to probably have a tough time getting to that guidance and then maintaining the overall guidance for the company of Aviation and Bell to fill in those gaps? Or that...

好的。好的。然後只是後續問題，我認為您之前談到了貝爾可能存在的一些優勢。我談到了在航空業保持良好狀態。我的意思是，當我們思考工業在第一季的表現以及指導方針時，看起來他們可能很難達到這個指導方針，然後維持航空和貝爾公司的整體指導方針來填補這些空白？或者那...

I think that -- yes, I think look, the industrial business, we would anticipate the revenue being a little bit lower than probably our original guide. I think we'll probably hold in the margin range. But I think we have sufficient upside in terms of the performance and how we're doing on the aviation and the Bell front that -- which is why we're comfortable holding our guide for the overall company.

我認為 - 是的，我認為，就工業業務而言，我們預計收入可能會比我們最初的預期略低。我認為我們可能會維持在邊際範圍內。但我認為，就業績以及我們在航空和貝爾方面的表現而言，我們還有足夠的上升空間，這也是我們願意為整個公司維持指導價的原因。

Sorry about that. We will next go to the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

很抱歉。接下來我們來談談高盛的諾亞波波納克 (Noah Poponak)。

Scott, Frank. Just staying on the Aviation margin, I mean, it's a pretty good incremental in the quarter. I think it was a little bit of an easier compare. We kind of a sense what units and price are doing. I think you've had cost input inflation, but you've also cited just kind of supply chain and some internal operating performance, maybe that's been a hurdle. Is that behind you now? Is that no longer an issue as you move through 2024? And is that a tailwind year-over-year?

史考特，弗蘭克。僅從航空利潤率來看，我的意思是，本季的增量相當不錯。我認為這是一個更容易比較的事情。我們有點感覺到單位和價格的走勢。我認為您已經遇到了成本投入通膨，但您也提到了供應鏈和一些內部營運績效，也許這是一個障礙。這件事現在已經過去了嗎？到 2024 年，這不再是問題了嗎？與去年同期相比，這是否是一種順風？

I think you'll still see some pressure in second quarter. No. Remember, a lot of these aircraft are inventories, a lot of that cost is inventory. So it usually takes the first half of the year to bleed out in the performance levels and productivity levels that we saw in the back half of the previous year in 2023 in this case. So I still think we see some pressure for that.

我認為第二季仍會面臨一些壓力。不。因此，在這種情況下，通常需要到 2023 年上半年才能達到我們在上一年下半年看到的績效水準和生產力水準。因此我仍然認為我們面臨一些壓力。

But I'd say the good news is that when we look at the metrics in the factory and the efficiencies, productivity and things of that nature, we are starting to see some of the benefits that we expect to see in a more stable production environment, less supplier disruption, fewer onboarding, so less impact on the training. There's a lot of things the business is doing to try to address some of those issues. So I do think that we'll have margin rates that do continue to improve over the course of the year, but you're still going to have some drag of that inventory release, particularly as you get through Q2.

但我想說的好消息是，當我們查看工廠的指標以及效率、生產力和諸如此類的事物時，我們開始看到一些我們期望在更穩定的生產環境中看到的好處，更少的供應商中斷，更少的入職培訓，因此對培訓的影響更小。企業正在採取許多措施嘗試解決其中的一些問題。因此，我確實認為我們的利潤率將在一年內持續提高，但仍然會受到庫存釋放的一些拖累，尤其是在第二季。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess just a follow-up on the Bell margin. I know the FLRAA is still ramping and it will kind of exit the year at a different revenue run rate than it achieved in the first quarter. But it's also ramped a decent amount. And I think this year, you'll get pretty close to what the run rate is in the sort of medium term. And this Bell margin just keeps outperforming. I mean the amount of margin compression that was discussed out there in the market, I guess, in the medium term? Is that kind of off the table? Or I guess, how do you see this dollar margin hanging in '24, '25 or '26, just in the medium term as you continue to ramp FLRAA?

好的。這很有道理。然後我想這只是對貝爾邊緣的後續關注。我知道 FLRAA 仍在加速發展，今年年底的營收運行率與第一季有所不同。但其數量也增加了不少。我認為今年的運行率將非常接近中期水平。而貝爾的利潤率一直表現出色。我指的是市場上討論的中期利潤率壓縮幅度？這不可能嗎？或者我想，隨著您繼續增加 FLRAA，您認為在 24、25 或 26 年，中期內這個美元利潤率會如何？

Well, look, I mean, I think again, the team is performing well. We're doing everything we can on the cost front to deal with the lower production levels, things like the Nigerian order, the additional 5 V-22, these things are all helpful. I guess I would also note and you may have seen, if you look at the FY '25 budget request, one of the allocations of sort of the elimination of FARA and where that money in the out years goes, there is over $200 million of FY '25 money on FLRAA above what was originally in the [FIDAE]. So I do think that we're going to -- we're ramping quite nicely on FLRAA.

嗯，看，我的意思是，我再次認為，該團隊表現良好。我們正在盡一切努力在成本方面應對較低的生產水平，例如尼日利亞的訂單和額外的 5 架 V-22，這些都是有幫助的。我想我還要指出的是，如果您查看 25 財年預算請求，您可能已經看到，其中一項撥款是取消 FARA，而這些資金在未來幾年的去向是，2025 財年用於 FLRAA 的資金比原來 [FIDAE] 的資金高出 2 億多美元。所以我確實認為我們會—我們在 FLRAA 上進展相當順利。

We'll actually probably see that increase in terms of the number of revenues on FLRAA as we get into 2025 above what we might have originally expected on the FIDAE . So that's another couple of hundred million dollar probably revenue step as we get into next year. So look, we'll continue to stay very focused on the cost side and executing and perform against all these programs. And as I said, I think that will drive us to the higher side of the revenue guide -- part of the -- I'm sorry, the margin guide for this year, and we'll certainly get back to you on the FY '25 guide sometime in January, February.

實際上，到 2025 年，我們可能會看到 FLRAA 的收入數量超過我們最初對 FIDAE 的預期。因此，到明年，我們可能還會再增加幾億美元的收入。所以，我們將繼續高度關注成本方面並執行和履行所有這些計劃。正如我所說的，我認為這將使我們的收入指南達到更高的水平 - 部分 - 對不起，今年的利潤率指南，我們一定會在 1 月或 2 月的某個時候回复您有關 25 財年指南的信息。

Okay. And Frank, I guess, a decent amount or a lot of the items below segment manufacturing segment EBIT were pretty different in the quarter compared to what the full year implied on a quarterly run rate. If I look at what Aviation did finance did tax rate, corporate interest, even. Is it worth updating those on a full year basis? Or are they all just kind of still looking like the land in the range of what you had originally embedded in the earnings guidance?

好的。弗蘭克，我想，本季製造業部門息稅前利潤 (EBIT) 以下的相當一部分項目與全年季度運行率所暗示的項目相比存在很大差異。如果我看看航空業對財務的影響，甚至影響稅率、企業利息。是否值得以全年基礎更新這些內容？或者它們看起來仍然處於您最初在獲利預測中嵌入的範圍內？

Well, I think that finance will be in the range of what we had thought. We talked about corporate expense was kind of significantly higher this first quarter due to share price performance. But we'll kind of stick with that type of range. I think interest expense relative to, I don't know what -- we didn't really guide interest expense, but our -- I guess, we're probably a little better on interest expense, excuse me, relative to the $90 million depending on what interest rates do for the year.

嗯，我認為融資額會在我們想像的範圍內。我們談到，由於股價表現，第一季企業費用大幅增加。但我們會堅持這種範圍。我認為利息支出相對於，我不知道——我們並沒有真正指導利息支出，但是我們的——我想，我們的利息支出可能稍微好一點，對不起，相對於 9000 萬美元，這取決於當年的利率情況。

Our investment in cash is a little better than we had thought given the continuing higher interest rates, so there's probably a benefit there. But the other stuff is kind of in the range of what we had talked about.

考慮到持續走高的利率，我們的現金投資比我們想像的要好一些，因此可能有好處。但其他內容都屬於我們討論的範圍。

Next, we have a question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們來回答伯恩斯坦公司的 Doug Harned 提出的問題。

I wanted to go back to your discussion around pricing at aviation. This has been a great story with continuing to be able to get pricing ahead of inflation. But when you look at this, and I'd say outside of what you have in the order book right now. When you try and plan longer term, is this something you can expect to continue? Or do you have to look at this as eventually pricing is going to come back and kind of converge with inflation rates?

我想回到你關於航空定價的討論。這是一個很棒的故事，它能夠持續讓定價領先通貨膨脹。但是當您看到這一點時，我想說的是，這超出了您現在訂單簿中的內容。當您嘗試進行長期規劃時，您是否期望這件事能持續下去？或者你必須考慮到這一點，因為價格最終將會回落，並與通貨膨脹率趨同？

Jeez, I don't know. I mean, obviously, I would say at a macro level, generally speaking, over very long periods of time, price inflation probably end up pretty close. I think we certainly went through a number of years in this industry where the prices were where the products were way under price. I mean it just doesn't make sense.

天哪，我不知道。我的意思是，顯然，我想說在宏觀層面上，一般來說，在很長一段時間內，價格通膨可能最終會非常接近。我想我們在這個行業中確實經歷了許多年產品價格遠低於原價的時期。我的意思是這根本就沒有意義。

So I mean, we had a significant catch up in price. I think got them back to much closer to where they should be. And obviously, our expectation is you're going to continue to see inflation on a go-forward basis, and we expect to see pricing increasing on a go-forward basis. And then we're seeing that. I mean pricing in the market is solid. And beyond that, I'm not sure how to forecast over a long period of time. But we still think demand is strong and the price environment is also doing well. As I said, I think when we guided, we talked about the fact that you wouldn't see as significant a price -- absolute price increase, as you saw in the last couple of years, but you also see some inflation starting to come down as well. So anyway for us, what's important is that we have net pricing positive over inflation.

所以我的意思是，我們的價格已經明顯上漲了。我認為他們已經回到了更接近他們應有的位置。顯然，我們預計未來通貨膨脹將繼續存在，並且我們預計未來價格將上漲。然後我們就看到了。我的意思是市場定價是穩定的。除此之外，我不知道如何進行長期預測。但我們仍然認為需求強勁，價格環境也良好。正如我所說，我認為當我們提供指導時，我們談到了這樣一個事實：你不會看到像過去幾年那樣顯著的價格——絕對價格上漲，但你也會看到一些通貨膨脹開始下降。所以無論如何對我們來說，重要的是我們的淨定價要高於通膨率。

Okay. And then just switching over to Bell for a moment on -- again, on margins. You've talked in the past, and I think as one would expect, initially, FLRAA is dilutive. But when you look at that trajectory now that you're moving forward, you're headed toward [Milestone B], I would expect long term, this is a very accretive program once you're in full rate production. Can you give us a sense of how you expect kind of the time line of FLRAA's contribution to margins to proceed?

好的。然後我們再切換到貝爾話題——再次討論利潤率。您過去曾談到過，我認為正如人們所預料的那樣，最初，FLRAA 具有稀釋作用。但是，當您現在回顧前進的軌跡，您正朝著 [里程碑 B] 前進，我預計，從長遠來看，一旦全速生產，這將是一個非常有益的項目。您能否告訴我們您預計 FLRAA 對利潤貢獻的時間表將如何進行？

Well, I mean, I think that -- as you described, that's kind of what you would nominally expect for any of these large defense contract programs, FLRAA is a very big program, right? So the EMD phase of this thing goes out through into 2030. Now you'll start to see, I would suspect initial production lots. We have LRIP deliveries that happen out in 2028, but you'll start to see some of the follow-on production lots be negotiated out in that time frame. But certainly, the next several years is very much dominated by the EMD program.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為——正如您所描述的，這有點像您對任何大型國防合約項目名義上的期望，FLRAA 是一個非常大的項目，對嗎？因此，該事物的 EMD 階段將持續到 2030 年。我們的 LRIP 交付將於 2028 年進行，但您會看到一些後續生產批次在該時間範圍內進行談判。但可以肯定的是，未來幾年將主要由 EMD 計劃主導。

Okay. And that would be dilutive in that period.

好的。這在那個時期會被稀釋。

Yes. Correct.

是的。正確的。

Next, we go to the line of Jason Gursky with Citigroup.

接下來我們聯絡花旗集團的 Jason Gursky。

Good morning, everybody. I was wondering if you could spend a little bit time on eAviation. Maybe provide us a little bit of an update on how things are going in that business and the development that you've got going on there? And kind of what the -- the next couple of years look like for you all on product development revenue and how EBIT is going to trend for us here over the next few years given that backdrop?

大家早安。我想知道您是否可以花一點時間討論電子航空。也許您可以向我們介紹一下該業務的進展以及您在那裡取得的發展？那麼，在未來幾年中，你們的產品開發收入將會是什麼樣的呢？

Sure. So look, I think there's obviously a couple of pieces that are in here, right? There's the Pivotal business, which I think is doing well. We're seeing -- we saw a significant increase in the number of deliveries here in Q1. I think demand for those products is strong. So we feel pretty good about where that is.

當然。所以你看，我認為這裡顯然有幾件東西，對吧？還有 Pivotal 業務，我認為它做得很好。我們看到—第一季的交付數量顯著增加。我認為這些產品的需求很強。所以我們對此感到非常滿意。

As I mentioned, we did get an FAA exemption on the ability to do flight training on the Bell's electro, which is fundamentally a training aircraft. So I think that will help us pick up volume as we can now sell those and use those for training in the U.S. domestic market. It's already been accepted, and we've seen nice growth in the international markets. We have a couple of new products that are in that in that product line, I think we'll do well. So I think we feel very good about how the Pipistrel guys are doing and how that's performing.

正如我所提到的，我們確實獲得了美國聯邦航空局的豁免，可以使用貝爾的飛機進行飛行訓練，基本上是一架訓練飛機。所以我認為這將有助於我們增加銷量，因為我們現在可以銷售這些產品並將其用於美國國內市場的培訓。它已經被接受，我們看到了國際市場的良好成長。我們有幾款新產品屬於該產品線，我認為我們會做得很好。所以我認為我們對 Pipistrel 員工的表現和表現感到非常滿意。

On the R&D, which is really the dominant piece of what's driving the financials in that segment, we have the Nexus program, which is progressing well. We're doing the full integration and testing of the first craft. We'll probably see -- we're already sort of doing ground testing and evaluation already. We'll probably see flight test later on this year on the Nexus front. That program is also, I'd say, progressing well. Most of the supplier selections are done. Parts coming in, we're starting to build the first airframe with an expectation that we would probably fly that sometime next year.

在研發方面，這實際上是推動該領域財務狀況的主要因素，我們有 Nexus 計劃，而且進展順利。我們正在對第一艘飛船進行全面整合和測試。我們可能會看到——我們已經在進行地面測試和評估了。我們可能會在今年稍後在 Nexus 前端看到飛行測試。我想說該計劃也進展順利。大部分供應商的選擇已經完成。零件陸續到貨後，我們開始建造第一架飛機機身，預計明年某個時候就能試飛。

So that's really what drives the financial side. Now I would say that we're -- the level of investment that we're making right now into those programs is probably going to level off. So we saw -- as we've guided, we saw a significant increase from '22 to '23 and now '23 to '24 and those -- that level of spending is probably going to level out going forward. So we'll start to see some EBIT increased contribution on the Pipistrel product sales side. So I think that's clearly a segment that the investments in Nexus and in the newer program, we're going to continue to have us in a loss position, but it probably stabilizes going out the next few years.

所以這才是真正推動財務方面的因素。現在我想說的是，我們目前對這些項目的投資水準可能會趨於平穩。因此我們看到 — — 正如我們所預期的，從 2022 年到 2023 年，以及從 2023 年到 2024 年，支出出現了顯著增長，而且 — — 這一支出水平在未來可能會趨於平穩。因此，我們將開始看到 Pipistrel 產品銷售的息稅前利潤貢獻增加。因此，我認為這顯然是對 Nexus 和新計劃的投資的一部分，我們將繼續處於虧損狀態，但未來幾年可能會穩定下來。

And as you think about the size of the market that you're going after, you're putting investment dollars against what you expect to be volumes. And so I'm just kind of curious, when do you expect the payback period to start on these investments that you're making?

當您考慮要進入的市場規模時，您會根據預期的交易量來決定投資金額。所以我只是有點好奇，您預期這些投資的報酬期何時開始？

Okay. So I think this is very much an unknown. I mean, there's plenty of studies out there and a lot of other noise in this industry that when you look at the eVTOL side of things, that it's a mega market. The exact timing of that, I think, is still a little bit to be determined. There's still plenty of work to do on the technical front from our perspective, technical work, regulatory work to make sure that there's viable products to meet that mission. So again, I think there's plenty of independent third-party data out there that has perspectives about how huge that market could be.

好的。所以我認為這還是一個未知數。我的意思是，目前已經有大量研究，而且這個行業中還有很多其他的聲音表明，當你從 eVTOL 的角度來看，這是一個巨大的市場。我認為，具體時間還有待確定。從我們的角度來看，技術方面還有很多工作要做，技術工作、監管工作，以確保有可行的產品來完成這項使命。所以，我認為有很多獨立的第三方數據可以顯示這個市場到底有多大。

Keep in mind as our spending here is relatively modest. I think we're taking advantage of a lot of cost and cost structure and talent and capability that we already have in the company. So if the market proves to be what third parties would say the market would prove to be, it's going to be a massive return on investment.

請記住，我們在這裡的支出相對較少。我認為我們正在利用公司現有的大量成本、成本結構、人才和能力。因此，如果市場證明確實如第三方所說的那樣，那麼這將帶來巨大的投資回報。

Next, we go to George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

接下來我們請出 Shapiro Research 的喬治夏皮羅 (George Shapiro)。

Scott, the incremental margin in Aviation, as people were talking about was, I mean, like 46%. And I recognize that revenue differences are small, so the numbers can get somewhat distorted. But given that you said inflation will probably pretty much be somewhat similar to the price benefit that you got this quarter. Why won't those incrementals for the rest of the year run somewhat higher than kind of your objective of 20%?

史考特，人們談論的航空業的增量利潤率是 46%。我認識到收入差異很小，因此數字可能會有些扭曲。但鑑於您所說的通貨膨脹率可能與您本季獲得的價格收益大致相同。為什麼今年剩餘時間的增量不會比你的 20% 的目標更高呢？

Well, George, look, I mean I think when we look at the cost and what's going to come out of inventory and what the margin rates are going to look like, it's, I do think you're right. We did have a higher conversion on Q1, but that's certainly, I think, certainly higher than we would expect for the course of the year. So I think at this point, as we look at it, our expectations in terms of what inflation is going to look like, what plant performance is going to look like, which, as I said, is for sure improving through the course of the year as we get towards the high side of guide there, it's that 20% kind of range, which is generally what we've guided as a long-term measurement for the business. And I think that's where we'll be.

嗯，喬治，你看，我的意思是，當我們看看成本、庫存會產生什麼結果以及利潤率會是什麼樣子時，我確實認為你是對的。我們第一季的轉換率確實更高，但我認為，這肯定高於我們對全年的預期。所以我認為在這一點上，當我們觀察它時，我們對通貨膨脹的預期，對工廠績效的預期，正如我所說的，肯定會在一年內得到改善，因為我們接近指導的高端，這是 20% 的範圍，這通常是我們對業務的長期衡量標準的指導。我想這就是我們所處的位置。

Okay. And one quick one for you, Frank. You bought a lot of stock in the first quarter, like 1.8% of the outstanding I guess it was pretty opportunistic? Or do we expect that you might buy more than 5% for this year?

好的。還有一個快速問題需要回答，弗蘭克。您在第一季購買了大量股票，大概佔流通股的 1.8%，我猜這是相當投機取巧的吧？或者我們預計您今年的購買量可能會超過 5%？

Well, we talked about kind of 5% was in our guidance, but we also talked about the fact that we have a strong liquidity position, and we're going to return excess capital. So I think that kind of -- we did a fair amount in the first quarter. We'll continue to buy from here. We'll probably be on the higher side of that 5% for the year.

好吧，我們談到了我們的指導方針中的 5%，但我們也談到了我們擁有強大的流動性狀況，我們將返還多餘的資本。所以我認為，我們在第一季做了相當多的事情。我們會繼續從這裡購買。我們今年的成長率很可能會達到 5% 以上的較高水準。

Next, we go to the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來我們聯絡美國銀行的 Ron Epstein。

Just maybe circling back on the defense business in the supplemental that just got passed yesterday. Is there stuff in there for you guys? I mean have you looked -- obviously you've look at it, but can you give us a sense of potentially what's in there for Systems or Bell?

也許只是重新討論昨天剛通過的補充法案中的國防事務。裡面有你們需要的東西嗎？我的意思是您是否看過 — — 顯然您已經看過了，但您能否讓我們了解其中可能包含哪些內容對於 Systems 或 Bell 來說？

No, there's not. I mean we really haven't been in the in the guns and bullet business. So most of that stuff is not replenishments of things that we have. I do think there's opportunities in Ukraine over time when you look at things that are possibilities for Bell on some other things and systems, but not something that's directly tied to these supplementals.

不，沒有。我的意思是我們確實沒有涉足過槍支和子彈生意。因此，其中大多數並不是我們已有物品的補充。我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，當您看到貝爾在其他一些事物和系統上的可能性時，烏克蘭會存在機會，但這並不是與這些補充直接相關的東西。

Got it. Got it. And then kind of back to aviation. Broadly, how is this supply chain doing in that? One of the things I've heard oddly enough is like window screens, windshields for airplanes or there's a shortage of those. I mean is there other stuff like that, that's just kind of random stuff to just kind of short in supply.

知道了。知道了。然後回到航空領域。整體來說，這個供應鏈的運作情況如何？奇怪的是，我聽到的一件事是，像是紗窗、飛機擋風玻璃之類的東西短缺。我的意思是還有其他類似的東西嗎？

Well, look, Ron, as we said, it's the randomness is part of what drives us crazy, right? It's -- and they change over time. But you're absolutely right. Windshields have been a problem now for several years. And it's, I'd say, probably getting better, but it's been a big problem. It's been a problem for us in terms of production builds. And frankly, it's been a big problem for us in terms of our customers.

好吧，羅恩，你看，就像我們說的，隨機性是讓我們抓狂的部分原因，對吧？而且它們會隨著時間而改變。但你完全正確。擋風玻璃已經成為一個問題好幾年了。我想說，情況可能會好轉，但這一直是個大問題。就生產建造而言，這對我們來說一直是個問題。坦白說，對於我們的客戶來說，這是一個大問題。

If somebody has a damaged windscreen and it's been an area of a lot of dissatisfaction in the industry, not just for the OEMs like us but also for our ability to provide spares in service. So it is -- certainly has been and remains one of the top problem items by category.

如果某人的擋風玻璃受損，這一直是業內很多人不滿的領域，不僅是對於我們這樣的原始設備製造商，而且對於我們提供備件的能力也是如此。所以，它一直是、並且仍然是類別中最主要的問題項目之一。

Yes. When I heard that I was astonished, but yes, I guess the current suppliers shut down the other supplier, whatever.

是的。當我聽到這個消息時我感到很驚訝，但是是的，我猜當前的供應商關閉了另一家供應商，無論如何。

Next, we go to Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們請到摩根士丹利的 Kristine Liwag。

Scott, earlier you mentioned on industrial, how you're seeing incremental weakness in the high-end consumer. Can you talk about the customer profile of those buyers? And if there are similarities to the customer profile for products like M2 or pistons or Couriers in aviation?

史考特，您之前提到過工業領域，您看到高端消費市場逐漸出現疲軟。您能談談這些買家的客戶概況嗎？那麼，與 M2、活塞或航空領域的 Couriers 等產品的客戶資料是否有相似之處？

So I don't know exactly in terms of categorization of that customer per se. But I think that if you look at demand for all the way down to piston. The system 172, demand remains very strong, and we expect to have strong deliveries even over last year, but availability, the demand environment is very strong for that kind of stuff.

因此我並不確切知道該客戶本身的分類。但我認為，如果您看一下對活塞的所有需求。系統 172 的需求仍然非常強勁，我們預計交貨量甚至會超過去年，但是對於這類產品來說，可用性、需求環境非常強勁。

And too strong. I mean these are products that we see strength in terms of demand across the product line. I don't think they're the same customer maybe or the same consumer perhaps. But I think if you look -- now certainly, what we're seeing and we look at other companies. If you're in the business of doing boats, RVs, recreational vehicles, PTVs, that consumer has clearly slowed down. They slowed down last year, and we did make some adjustments based on that, but we've seen further slowing on that. But yes, I don't know how to categorize whether it's the same customer or not, but certainly those product categories have slowed down and everything from pistons up into light jets has not. And of course, that's a much bigger, much more important business to us, which is good, I suppose.

而且太強了。我的意思是，我們看到這些產品在整個產品線上的需求都很強勁。我認為他們可能不是同一個顧客，也可能不是同一個消費者。但我認為，如果你看一下——當然，我們現在看到的是，我們看看其他公司。如果您從事船舶、房車、休閒車、PTV 等業務，那麼消費顯然已經放緩。去年，它們的發展速度有所放緩，我們確實據此做出了一些調整，但我們看到它們的發展速度進一步放緩。但是的，我不知道如何分類是否是同一個客戶，但可以肯定的是，這些產品類別已經放緩，而從活塞到輕型噴射機的所有產品都沒有放緩。當然，這對我們來說是一項更大、更重要的業務，我想，這是一件好事。

Next, we go over to Gavin Parsons with UBS.

接下來我們請瑞銀的加文‧帕森斯 (Gavin Parsons)。

I just want to confirm if I heard the restructuring savings are expected at $185 million, given I think the initial plan was $75 million. And just what's driving the better number there?

我只是想確認一下，我是否聽說重組節省的金額預計為 1.85 億美元，因為我認為最初的計劃是 7500 萬美元。那麼，是什麼推動了該數字的不斷成長？

Yes. That's a full kind of run rate when we get through it all. And it's really driven by the addition of head count reductions. The unanticipated Shadow, FARA and then the additional actions at Industrial are really focused on head count where the original restructuring had some asset impairment in it. And so we're getting a much bigger run rate savings as a result of those reductions to kind of rightsize those activities.

是的。當我們完成所有任務後，這就是完整的運行率。這其實是由於員工人數減少所致。未預料到的影子銀行、FARA 以及工業領域的其他行動實際上都集中在員工人數上，而最初的重組中存在一些資產減值。因此，透過這些削減來適當調整這些活動的規模，我們獲得了更大的運行率節省。

Got it. Okay. What is the transition from shadow to FTUAS look like in terms of kind of revenue and margins over what time frame?

知道了。好的。就收入和利潤而言，從影子到 FTUAS 的轉變在時間範圍內是什麼樣的？

Well, look, I think that's still a little bit to be determined when the Army canceled the Shadow program. They did say they wanted to move more aggressively on FTUAS, we have seen that in the awards now of option 3 and 4, which is good. There aren't, I don't think, formally published dates, but the dates that we hear about in terms of when they'll put an RFP out on The Street for the ultimate EMD production decisions, sounds like they're probably pulling that forward to where that RFP could come out as early as even late this year, which would lead to an early '25 calendar year award, which should be great. So the exact size and scope and therefore, the revenue and the margin is -- we just don't have visibility to that at this point.

嗯，看，我認為當陸軍取消影子計劃時，這一點仍有待確定。他們確實表示希望在 FTUAS 上採取更積極的行動，我們現在已經從選項 3 和 4 的授予中看到這一點，這是件好事。我認為目前還沒有正式公佈的日期，但是我們聽到的關於他們將在華爾街發布 RFP 以做出最終 EMD 生產決策的日期聽起來他們可能會將這一日期提前到最早在今年甚至今年晚些時候發布 RFP，這將導致 25 日曆年的早期授獎，這應該會很棒。因此，確切的規模和範圍，以及收入和利潤是--我們目前還無法看到。

This conference is being recorded for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through April 25, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 8546032. This does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議正在錄製，以進行數位化重播，並將於今天美國東部時間上午 10 點後至 2025 年 4 月 25 日提供。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。