達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) This conference is being recorded for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through April 25, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 8546032.

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）本次會議正在錄製數位化重播，並將在東部時間今天上午10 點後至2025 年4 月25 日期間提​​供。觀看重播。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。請繼續。

Thanks, Leah, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝莉亞，大家早安。在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。

Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenue in the quarter were $3.1 billion, up from $3 billion in last year's first quarter. Segment profit in the quarter was $290 million, up $31 million from the first quarter of 2023. During this year's first quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.20 per share compared to $1.05 per share in last year's first quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions reflected a use of cash of $81 million in the quarter compared to $104 million of cash provided in last year's first quarter.

我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。本季營收為 31 億美元，高於去年第一季的 30 億美元。該季度的部門利潤為 2.9 億美元，比 2023 年第一季增加 3,100 萬美元。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流反映了本季使用的現金為 8,100 萬美元，而去年第一季提供的現金為 1.04 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. In the first quarter, we saw higher segment profit at Aviation, Bell and Systems. At Aviation in the quarter, we delivered 36 jets, up from 35 last year, 20 commercial turboprops, down from 34 last year's first quarter. Aviation continues to see strong demand across our product lines that resulted in backlog growth of $177 million and in the first quarter at $7.3 billion. Textron innovations fleet utilization remained strong in the quarter, contributing to aftermarket revenue growth of 6% as compared to last year's first quarter.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。第一季度，我們看到航空、貝爾和系統部門的利潤較高。在航空領域，本季我們交付了 36 架噴射機，高於去年的 35 架；交付了 20 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，低於去年第一季的 34 架。航空業對我們各產品線的需求持續強勁，導致積壓訂單成長 1.77 億美元，第一季成長至 73 億美元。德事隆創新機隊利用率在本季保持強勁，與去年第一季相比，售後市場收入成長了 6%。

Throughout Q1, we saw continued improvements in our supply chain and hours attained in the factory, supporting delivery growth throughout the remainder of the year. At Bell, revenues in the quarter were up driven by higher military volume, reflecting the continued ramp of the FLRAA program. On the FLRAA program, we continue to progress through preliminary design reviews and expect to complete milestone B, which allows for the entrance into the engineering and manufacturing development phase of the program later this summer.

在整個第一季度，我們看到供應鏈和工廠工時不斷改善，支持了今年剩餘時間的交付成長。在貝爾，該季度的收入受到軍事數量增加的推動，反映出 FLRAA 計劃的持續成長。在 FLRAA 專案上，我們繼續透過初步設計審查取得進展，並預計完成里程碑 B，從而在今年夏天晚些時候進入該專案的工程和製造開發階段。

Also during the quarter, Bell received an award for the production delivery in Nigeria of 12 AH-1Z helicopters. V-22, the recently enacted FY '24 budget includes 5 additional aircraft scheduled for delivery in 2027. On the commercial side of Bell, we delivered 18 helicopters down from 22 in last year's first quarter. During the quarter, we continued to progress toward FAA certification on the 525 expected later this year.

同樣在本季度，貝爾因在尼日利亞生產交付 12 架 AH-1Z 直升機而獲獎。最近頒布的 24 財年預算包括計劃於 2027 年交付的另外 5 架 V-22 飛機。在本季度，我們繼續朝著預計今年稍後獲得 525 的 FAA 認證取得進展。

Bell recently received its first order for 10 525 helicopters from Equinor, Norwegian state energy company.

貝爾最近收到了挪威國家能源公司 Equinor 的第一筆 10 525 架直升機訂單。

Moving to Textron Systems, revenue was flat and margin was up versus last year's first quarter. During the quarter, we received notification from our government customer of the termination of the shadow program. We're currently working with the Army on winding this program down. This decision reflects the Army's transition from shadow to the Future Tactical UAS system to fulfill the need of organic intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Earlier this month, we received notification that we were awarded options 3 and 4 of the FTUAS program, and we remain one of two competitors for this next-generation program. Also in the quarter, systems was down selected with one other competitor to design, develop and manufacture a 30-millimeter Autocannon Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle prototype for the U.S. Marine Corps.

至於德事隆系統公司，與去年第一季相比，營收持平，利潤率上升。在本季度，我們收到了政府客戶關於影子計畫終止的通知。我們目前正在與陸軍合作逐步結束該計劃。這項決定反映了陸軍從影子無人機系統向未來戰術無人機系統的轉變，以滿足建制情報、監視和偵察的需求。本月早些時候，我們收到通知，我們獲得了 FTUAS 計劃的選項 3 和 4，並且我們仍然是該下一代計劃的兩個競爭對手之一。同樣在本季度，該系統還與另一家競爭對手合作，為美國海軍陸戰隊設計、開發和製造 30 毫米自動砲先進偵察車原型。

This 2-year effort will develop an innovative combat vehicle that provides mobile protective firepower for the marines. In addition, the Army's FY '25 budget request funds the design of the XM30 ground combat vehicle in preparation for the prototype build and testing portion of Phase 3 and 4 in the program's development. Moving to Industrial. We saw lower revenues in the quarter, largely driven by lower volume and mix and specialized vehicles. Kautex revenues were flat in the quarter. We are encouraged by recent trends in the hybrid space where industry is experiencing increased customer demand and OEM investments in hybrid platforms.

這項為期兩年的工作將開發一種創新的戰車，為海軍陸戰隊提供移動防護火力。此外，陸軍 25 財政年度預算請求為 XM30 地面戰車的設計提供資金，為該計劃開發的第 3 階段和第 4 階段的原型製造和測試部分做準備。轉向工業。我們看到本季收入下降，主要是由於銷量、組合和專用車輛下降。考特斯本季營收持平。我們對混合領域的最新趨勢感到鼓舞，產業中的客戶需求和原始設備製造商對混合平台的投資正在增加。

Aviation, Pipistrel delivered 30 aircraft in the quarter, up from 13 in 2023. Also during the quarter, Pipistrel was granted an airworthiness exemption by the FAA for its Velis Electro trainer which will allow U.S. flight schools to use this all electric aircraft in their pilot training programs. With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

航空方面，Pipistrel 本季交付了30 架飛機，高於2023 年的13 架。學校在其飛行員中使用這款全電動飛機培訓計劃。這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.2 billion were up $39 million from the first quarter of 2023, reflecting higher pricing of $48 million and lower volume and mix of $9 million. Segment profit was $143 million in the first quarter, up $18 million from a year ago, reflecting a favorable impact from pricing net of inflation of $14 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.3 billion.

德事隆航空的營收為 12 億美元，較 2023 年第一季增加 3,900 萬美元，反映出定價上漲 4,800 萬美元，銷售量和組合減少 900 萬美元。第一季該部門利潤為 1.43 億美元，比去年同期增加 1,800 萬美元，反映出扣除通貨膨脹因素後的定價帶來的有利影響（1,400 萬美元）。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 73 億美元。

Moving to Bell. Revenues were $727 million, up $106 million from last year's first quarter, reflecting higher military volume of $95 million, primarily related to the FLRAA program. This was partially offset by lower volume on the V-22 and H-1 programs. Segment profit of $80 million was up $20 million from a year ago, primarily driven by a favorable impact from performance of $30 million which includes $13 million of lower research and development costs.

搬到貝爾。營收為 7.27 億美元，比去年第一季增加 1.06 億美元，反映出軍費收入增加了 9,500 萬美元，這主要與 FLRAA 計畫有關。這被 V-22 和 H-1 項目數量的減少部分抵消。部門利潤為 8,000 萬美元，較上年同期增加 2,000 萬美元，主要是由於 3,000 萬美元業績的有利影響，其中包括 1,300 萬美元的研發成本降低。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $4.5 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $306 million, flat with last year's first quarter. Segment profit was $38 million, up $4 million from last year's first quarter. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $1.8 billion. Industrial revenues were $892 million, down $40 million from last year's first quarter, largely reflecting lower volume and mix of $51 million, principally in the Specialized Vehicles product line, partially offset by higher pricing of $16 million in the segment.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 45 億美元。德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.06 億美元，與去年第一季持平。部門利潤為 3800 萬美元，比去年第一季增加 400 萬美元。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 18 億美元。工業收入為 8.92 億美元，比去年第一季減少 4,000 萬美元，主要反映了銷售下降和 5,100 萬美元的組合，主要是專用車輛產品線，部分被該領域 1,600 萬美元的較高定價所抵消。

Segment profit of $29 million was down $12 million from the first quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix at specialized vehicles. Textron eAviation segment revenues were $7 million and segment loss was $18 million in the first quarter of 2024 compared with a segment loss of $9 million in the first quarter of 2023, primarily related to higher research and development costs. Finance segment revenues were $15 million and profit was $18 million.

該部門利潤為 2,900 萬美元，較 2023 年第一季減少 1,200 萬美元，主要是由於專用車輛的銷售和組合下降。 2024 年第一季德事隆 eAviation 部門營收為 700 萬美元，部門虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季部門虧損為 900 萬美元，主要與較高的研發成本有關。金融部門收入為 1500 萬美元，利潤為 1800 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit. Corporate expenses were $62 million. Net interest expense was $15 million. LIFO inventory provision was $20 million. Intangible asset amortization was $8 million and the non-service component of pension and postretirement income was $66 million. In the first quarter of 2024, we incurred $14 million in special charges under the 2023 restructuring plan, largely related to head count reductions to improve the cost structures of the Textron Systems and Bell segments in light of the cancellations of the shadow and FARA programs in the quarter.

低於部門利潤。公司開支為 6,200 萬美元。淨利息支出為 1500 萬美元。後進先出庫存撥備 2000 萬美元。無形資產攤銷為 800 萬美元，退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,600 萬美元。 2024 年第一季度，我們根據 2023 年重組計劃產生了 1,400 萬美元的特別費用，主要與因影子和 FARA 計劃取消而減少人員數量以改善德事隆系統和貝爾部門的成本結構有關。

We expect to incur additional severance costs in the second quarter in the range of $25 million to $30 million largely related to head count reductions in the Industrial segment. As a result, Textron has expanded its 2023 restructuring plan from a previously announced range of $115 million to $135 million in pretax special charges to a range of $165 million to $170 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 3.6 million shares, returning $317 million in cash to shareholders.

我們預計第二季將產生 2,500 萬至 3,000 萬美元的額外遣散費，這主要與工業部門的裁員有關。因此，德事隆將 2023 年重組計畫從先前宣布的 1.15 億至 1.35 億美元稅前特別費用範圍擴大到 1.65 億至 1.7 億美元。本季度，我們回購了約 360 萬股股票，向股東返還了 3.17 億美元現金。

To wrap up with guidance, we are reiterating our expected full year adjusted earnings per share to be in a range of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. We also expect full year manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions of $900 million to $1 billion.

最後，我們重申我們預計全年調整後每股收益將在每股 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元之間。我們也預計扣除退休金之前的全年製造業現金流量為 9 億至 10 億美元。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So Leah, we can open up the line for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。利亞，我們可以開通提問專線。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll start with David Strauss with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們將從巴克萊銀行的大衛·施特勞斯開始。

Scott, maybe if you could just dig in a little bit in the -- on the deliveries in the quarter. I think the mix was pretty strong but relatively flat year-over-year and you build a lot of inventory. So maybe just how the supply chain is doing? Did you want to deliver more airplanes than you ended up doing? And how do we think about how much deliveries could grow this year off of 168 last year?

斯科特，也許您可以稍微深入了解本季的交付情況。我認為這種組合相當強勁，但同比相對持平，並且您建立了大量庫存。那麼供應鏈的表現到底如何呢？您是否想交付比最終交付數量更多的飛機？我們如何看待今年的交車量比去年的 168 輛成長多少？

Sure. David, look I think that we certainly expect to see nice growth on a year-over-year basis. The supply chain does continue to improve the number of hours that we're able to get in the factory in terms of labor hours that are productive hours post training and whatnot does continue to improve. So I think we feel pretty good about how things progressed through the quarter.

當然。大衛，我認為我們當然希望看到同比的良好成長。供應鏈確實在繼續改善我們在工廠的工作時間，即培訓後的生產時間等，這些都在繼續改善。所以我認為我們對本季的進展感到非常滿意。

Look, we always have a few aircraft that we would like to have gotten delivered. We definitely had some things that got late in the quarter or just didn't get to where they could transfer in time. But for sure, the trend in terms of productivity and efficiency and throughput in the factory improved as we worked our way through the quarter. So a little bit lighter than we probably would have liked but not a big number. And I think again, the momentum is good, and we certainly are still feeling very good about our guide in terms of a nice increase in volume on a year-over-year basis.

看，我們總是有幾架飛機希望交付。我們肯定有一些事情在本季度遲到了，或者只是沒有及時轉移到可以轉移的地方。但可以肯定的是，隨著我們整個季度的努力，工廠的生產力、效率和吞吐量的趨勢有所改善。所以比我們可能想要的要輕一點，但不是很大的數字。我再次認為，勢頭很好，而且我們仍然對我們的指南感覺非常好，因為銷量同比大幅增長。

Next, we go to the line of Robert Stallard with Vertical Research.

接下來，我們進入垂直研究領域的羅伯特·斯塔拉德（Robert Stallard）。

Thanks Scott, maybe we'll start with Industrial, a bit of softness there in Q1. I know this is a tough division to forecast given its short-cycle nature. But are we finally seeing the U.S. consumer rolling over here.

謝謝斯科特，也許我們會從工業開始，第一季有一點疲軟。我知道，鑑於其短週期的性質，這是一個很難預測的劃分。但我們最終會看到美國消費者湧入這裡嗎？

Well, look, I think we talked last year Robert towards end of the year and in our guide that we expected to see the sort of high-end consumer dollars, sort of recreational personal transportation, stuff soften and we're seeing that. It's probably even a little bit softer than we would have expected. I think the automotive segment is pretty stable, which is fine. There are certainly some pieces in the vehicle business that are doing fine, but those high-dollar discretionary items have certainly softened.

好吧，聽著，我想我們去年就和羅伯特談過，在年底的時候，在我們的指南中，我們預計會看到高端消費者的資金、休閒個人交通、東西的軟化，我們正在看到這一點。它可能比我們預期的還要軟一些。我認為汽車領域相當穩定，這很好。汽車業確實有一些業務表現良好，但那些高價非必需品肯定已經疲軟。

As you know, those are often financed. Finance costs are certainly higher than they have been. So we expected it to be softer, our PTV business, which has been a great business for us. It was a little bit softer than we would have expected, and that's part of what we'll have to do some additional restructuring on top of our initial plan to dial that in and avoid a situation where we put too much inventory out in the field.

如您所知，這些通常是有資金支持的。財務成本肯定比以前高。因此，我們預計 PTV 業務會變得更加疲軟，這對我們來說是一項偉大的業務。它比我們預期的要軟一些，這是我們在最初計劃的基礎上必須進行一些額外重組的一部分，以避免我們在現場放置過多庫存的情況。

Right. And then maybe one for Frank. On the revised restructuring plan, do you -- how do you expect the cash impact of that to flow through? And do you expect the savings to be roughly equivalent to the restructuring charge?

正確的。也許還有一個是給弗蘭克的。對於修訂後的重組計劃，您預計其現金影響將如何反映？您預計節省的費用大致相當於重組費用嗎？

Yes. I think the savings will be ultimately in the area of $185 million or so kind of on a run rate basis and that we'll realize a fair amount of that by the end of 2024, but that will roll into '25 as well. The incremental cash is about $20 million in '24 for the additional restructuring, and we'll just absorb that into our cash guidance and overall cash for the restructuring for '24 is in the area of $60 million to $65 million. So -- but additional $20 million versus where we had been.

是的。我認為以運行率計算，最終節省的費用將達到 1.85 億美元左右，到 2024 年底我們將實現相當多的節省，但這也將持續到 25 年。 24 年額外重組的增量現金約為 2000 萬美元，我們將其吸收到我們的現金指導中，24 年重組的總體現金約為 6000 萬至 6500 萬美元。所以——但與我們原來的水平相比，額外增加了 2000 萬美元。

Next, we move on to Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

接下來，我們將與 Jefferies 一起前往 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Can we start off with maybe Bell, Scott, if we look at margins, they expanded up 130 basis points of Bell to 11% despite maybe $180 million of large contribution on the top line. So how do we think about the moving pieces to profitability for the year to get to 9.5% to 10.5%?

我們可以從貝爾、史考特開始嗎？那麼，我們如何看待今年獲利能力達到 9.5% 至 10.5% 的措施？

Well, I think we'll probably still end up in that range, Sheila. We had a strong Q1, obviously. We did have, as we noted there, a settlement on initial property-related lawsuit that gave us a little bit of a boost in the quarter. But I would say the team is performing well. As you know, we did restructuring actions to try to deal with the loss of the FARA program. We were able in a number of cases to take some of the appropriate engineering count and move that over to the FARA program, which helped us ramp that program up.

好吧，我想我們可能仍然會在這個範圍內，希拉。顯然，我們的第一季表現強勁。正如我們在那裡指出的那樣，我們確實就最初的房地產相關訴訟達成了和解，這給我們在本季度帶來了一些推動。但我想說球隊表現得很好。如您所知，我們採取了重組行動，試圖應對 FARA 計劃的損失。在許多情況下，我們能夠採取一些適當的工程計數並將其轉移到 FARA 計劃，這幫助我們加快了該計劃的步伐。

But we also had to take some cost actions, both in the -- as a result of the loss of the FARA program as well as some of the lower production quantities. Obviously, it will certainly help us as we start to see some flow of the Nigerian H1 where that gets that line back up and going again, the extra 5 on V-22, which is above the original program of record is certainly a nice add, and we'll start to see some of that flow through in the latter part of the year. So I think Bell had a strong quarter. We're continuing to focus very much on cost to deal with the mix issues there. But we'll clearly end up towards the high side of the guidance on Bell, I think they're performing well.

但由於 FARA 計劃的失敗以及一些產量的下降，我們還必須採取一些成本行動。顯然，這肯定會對我們有所幫助，因為我們開始看到尼日利亞H1 的一些流程，使該線路恢復並再次運行，V-22 上的額外5 個，高於原始記錄程序，這無疑是一個很好的補充，我們將在今年下半年開始看到其中的一些進展。所以我認為貝爾有一個強勁的季度。我們將繼續非常關注處理混合問題的成本。但我們顯然最終會達到貝爾指導的較高水平，我認為他們表現良好。

Great. And then if I could ask one on Aviation, orders held up pretty well, book-to-bill above 1x. Maybe if you could provide any color on what you're seeing from your customers. One of your competitors noted interest rates are potentially prohibiting orders? If you could just comment on that?

偉大的。然後，如果我可以詢問航空方面的問題，訂單保持得很好，訂單出貨比超過 1 倍。也許您可以提供您從客戶那裡看到的任何顏色。您的一位競爭對手指出利率可能會禁止訂單？您能對此發表評論嗎？

Sheila, we continue to see real good strength across pretty much all the product lines in the business. So we're feeling pretty good about the order flow a lot of these aircraft are going to deliver a couple of years from now. So from a financing standpoint, I don't know, we don't -- I guess here is as much about that, but the order activity was staying pretty strong, very positive.

希拉，我們繼續看到該行業幾乎所有產品線的真正強大實力。因此，我們對訂單流感覺非常好，其中許多飛機將在幾年後交付。因此，從融資的角度來看，我不知道，我們不知道——我想這也是如此，但訂單活動仍然非常強勁，非常積極。

Next, we go to Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

接下來，我們將前往沃爾夫研究中心 (Wolfe Research) 的邁爾斯·沃爾頓 (Myles Walton)。

Scott, I was wondering if you could touch on the supply chain within Bell. Obviously, the 1Q seasonally light usually for the commercial helos but down year-on-year. And then also the comment you made on the 525 certification at year-end. I know that, I wonder if your business heads had been quoted is getting more confident on that into the year-end. Could you also comment on your confidence level of that certification?

史考特，我想知道你是否可以談談貝爾內部的供應鏈。顯然，第一季商業直升機的季節性光照通常較多，但較去年同期有所下降。還有您對年底的 525 認證的評價。我知道，我想知道你們的業務主管是否在年底前對此變得更有信心了。您能否評論一下您對該認證的信心程度？

Sure. Look, the Bell supply chain continues to I would say, improve. We always have a number of parts that are sort of problem children. We're continuing to work that. But in general, I think we are able to manage our way through that. And I don't think there's anything new or surprising that would have, in any way, affect our guide as we think about Bell commercial volumes through the course of the year.

當然。看，我想說的是，貝爾供應鏈繼續改善。我們總是有很多部分是有問題的孩子。我們正在繼續努力。但總的來說，我認為我們能夠解決這個問題。當我們考慮貝爾全年的商業銷售時，我認為沒有任何新的或令人驚訝的事情會以任何方式影響我們的指南。

We did have a very strong Q4, obviously, on the commercial deliveries and so a little lighter maybe than we expected in Q1, but I think we're in good shape. And order activity there also remains very healthy. So I think Bell is in a good place. 525 flight test is going very well. The FAA flight testing portion, we're well into that. We have a few more performance flight test and then we go through sort of what they call FNR, which is about 150 hours of just durability reliability flying.

顯然，我們第四季度的商業交付量確實非常強勁，因此可能比我們第一季的預期要輕一些，但我認為我們狀況良好。那裡的訂單活動也仍然非常健康。所以我認為貝爾處於一個很好的位置。 525試飛進展順利。美國聯邦航空管理局的飛行測試部分，我們對此很感興趣。我們進行了更多的性能飛行測試，然後我們進行了所謂的 FNR，大約 150 小時的耐久性可靠性飛行。

And obviously, as you guys know, we've been flying that aircraft for a long time. It's proven to be very durable, reliable aircraft. So I don't think we'll have any issues going through there. So we'll we should wrap up flight testing year as we get to midyear. And as you know, there's a fair bit of paperwork processing and final documents and all that kind of stuff that have to go before the final certification. But I'd say at this point, we feel pretty good about where it is.

顯然，正如你們所知，我們已經駕駛這架飛機很久了。事實證明，它是非常耐用、可靠的飛機。所以我認為我們不會有任何問題。因此，我們應該在年中結束飛行測試。如您所知，在最終認證之前需要處理大量的文書工作和最終文件以及所有此類內容。但我想說，在這一點上，我們對它的位置感覺很好。

And if it were certified, what would be sort of the production rate that you target over the next few years?

如果獲得認證，您未來幾年的目標生產力是多少？

Yes. We haven't released a production rate on the 525.

是的。我們尚未公佈 525 的生產率。

And our next question comes from Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Peter Arment 和 Baird。

Scott, nice results. Did you quantify what the settlement was in the Bell that affected the margins this quarter?

斯科特，結果不錯。您是否量化了貝爾的和解協議對本季利潤率的影響？

No, we didn't. I mean, it's not a huge number, Peter, but it's not that helped the margin rate a little bit in the quarter.

不，我們沒有。我的意思是，這不是一個巨大的數字，彼得，但這並沒有對本季的利潤率有一點幫助。

Okay. Okay. So I just want to clarify that. And then just a quick one for you, Frank. We expected that you would have higher corporate expenses in Q1. Just wondering, just from a modeling perspective calibrate the rest of The Street. Are we thinking more evenly spread for the balance of the year for your $160 million target?

好的。好的。所以我只想澄清這一點。弗蘭克，然後給你簡單介紹一下。我們預計第一季的公司開支將會增加。只是想知道，只是從建模的角度來校準華爾街的其餘部分。我們是否考慮在今年剩餘時間內更均勻地實現 1.6 億美元的目標？

Yes. As you know, that bounces around depending on where the share price is, but kind of we expected, it certainly will not be as volatile or may not be as volatile for the rest of the year. So we'll see. But yes, we're still sticking with the same target for the full year.

是的。如您所知，它的反彈取決於股價的位置，但我們預計，它肯定不會那麼波動，或者在今年剩餘時間內可能不會那麼波動。所以我們拭目以待。但是，我們仍然堅持全年相同的目標。

Next, we have a question from Cai von Rumohr with TD Cowen.

接下來，我們有來自 Cai von Rumohr 和 TD Cowen 的問題。

Yes. So your competitors, Gulfstream and Embraer basically had higher biz jet deliveries and we're kind of closer to where they expected to be. And yet you guys continue to struggle. Is part of that related to geography that you guys are in Wichita and you have to fight with Spirit to get people because they're trying to ramp to. And that, therefore, this is going to be a longer slog than maybe others are going to see?

是的。因此，您的競爭對手灣流和巴西航空工業公司基本上擁有更高的公務機交付量，而我們更接近他們的預期目標。然而你們仍在繼續奮鬥。部分原因與你們在威奇託的地理位置有關，你們必須與「精神」戰鬥才能吸引人，因為他們正試圖接近。因此，這將是一個比其他人所看到的更長的過程？

Cai, I mean I thought we feel pretty good about our deliveries. We always would like to get another couple of jets here and there, but I think we're doing pretty good and feeling good about where we are. On the labor front, where we expect it to be. So I don't see a problem with our labor situation in which (inaudible) I think everybody has been challenged by higher turnover rates just in terms of the amount of churn.

蔡，我的意思是我認為我們對交付的感覺非常好。我們總是希望到處再添幾架飛機，但我認為我們做得很好，並且對我們所處的位置感覺良好。在勞工方面，這是我們所期望的。因此，我不認為我們的勞動力狀況有問題（聽不清楚），我認為每個人都受到更高流動率的挑戰，只是就流失量而言。

And that's really been one of the biggest impacts to us on the productivity efficiency side is the number of people that come in and rotate back out, but I think most companies in all industries, frankly, are seeing that. But no, I don't think we have a -- we certainly don't feel like we have a macro unsolvable problem. It's improved significantly. The number of employees is where we needed to be.

這確實是對我們生產力效率方面最大的影響之一，那就是進來和輪換的人數，但坦白說，我認為所有行業的大多數公司都看到了這一點。但不，我不認為我們有——我們當然不覺得我們有一個宏觀上無法解決的問題。已經明顯改善了。員工數量正是我們所需要的。

And I expect we'll -- as I said, we will continue to see a ramp on deliveries as we go through the year.

我預計，正如我所說，今年我們將繼續看到交付量的增加。

Great. And sort of maybe going back to Myles' question. So energy prices are up 525 is clearly targeting that market. You've got an order for 10, do delivery start relatively early next year? So could we start to see some pretty good build on that program?

偉大的。也許回到邁爾斯的問題。因此，能源價格上漲 525 顯然是針對該市場。您有 10 個訂單，明年會較早開始交貨嗎？那麼我們可以開始看到該程式的一些非常好的構建嗎？

Well, we're already ramping up the production side of the program to start to meet deliveries, but I suspect those deliveries will be in the late '25 sort of time frame. I think we're in a very good place in terms of the cycle, as you alluded to. Obviously, Equinor is an energy company, and those are for oil and gas offshore applications, and we have several other customers who were in, I'd say, positive latter stage negotiations that are primarily aimed at the oil and gas market right now. So it's certainly a favorable time to be getting these things through certification. And I think it fits a nice place in that end market.

好吧，我們已經在加強該計劃的生產，以開始滿足交付要求，但我懷疑這些交付將在 25 年末的時間範圍內進行。正如您所提到的，我認為我們在周期方面處於一個非常好的位置。顯然，Equinor 是一家能源公司，這些公司用於石油和天然氣海上應用，我想說，我們還有其他幾家客戶正在進行積極的後期談判，目前主要針對石油和天然氣市場。因此，現在無疑是透過認證來獲得這些東西的有利時機。我認為它在終端市場中佔有一席之地。

Next, we go to Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們請來摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. I guess, Scott, you called out the contribution to EBIT growth from pricing at Aviation, and we'll see more about the other components in the queue. It looks like the compares for pricing get somewhat tougher from here, should we think about I know you probably have some visibility into the backlog here. Should we think about the $14 million of year-on-year pricing being a relatively high level compared to what we're likely to see for the rest of the year given that those compares get harder?

非常感謝。大家，早安。我想，斯科特，您提到了航空定價對息稅前利潤增長的貢獻，我們將看到更多有關隊列中其他組成部分的資訊。看起來定價的比較從這裡開始變得更加困難，我們應該考慮一下我知道您可能對這裡的積壓有一些了解。鑑於這些比較變得更加困難，我們是否應該認為 1400 萬美元的同比定價與我們今年剩餘時間可能看到的價格相比是一個相對較高的水平？

Yes. I think it kind of is pretty stable through the course of the year. I mean we do have obviously very good visibility to the pricing side of things because they're all in the backlog. Obviously, what's important to us is to maintain that spread of net pricing over inflation. And so that's really most of the work as we go through the course of the year is just managing the inflation numbers around supply base and things like that. So -- but I would expect to see positive price over inflation through the course of the year.

是的。我認為這一年的情況相當穩定。我的意思是，我們顯然對定價方面有非常好的了解，因為它們都在積壓中。顯然，對我們來說重要的是保持淨定價相對於通貨膨脹的利差。因此，我們今年的大部分工作實際上只是管理供應基礎等方面的通膨數據。所以，但我預計全年物價將超過通膨。

Okay. Okay. And then just a follow-up, I think you talked earlier about potentially some upside at Bell. I talked about being in good shape at Aviation. I mean when we think about where industrial came in, in the first quarter and where the guidance is, it looks like they're going to probably have a tough time getting to that guidance and then maintaining the overall guidance for the company of Aviation and Bell to fill in those gaps? Or that...

好的。好的。接下來，我想你之前談到了貝爾潛在的一些優勢。我談到了在航空業的良好狀態。我的意思是，當我們考慮工業在第一季的表現以及指導方針時，看起來他們可能很難獲得該指導方針，然後維持航空和公司的整體指導方針。或者那個...

I think that -- yes, I think look, the industrial business, we would anticipate the revenue being a little bit lower than probably our original guide. I think we'll probably hold in the margin range. But I think we have sufficient upside in terms of the performance and how we're doing on the aviation and the Bell front that -- which is why we're comfortable holding our guide for the overall company.

我認為 - 是的，我認為看，工業業務，我們預計收入會比我們最初的指南略低一些。我認為我們可能會保持在保證金範圍內。但我認為我們在性能以及我們在航空和貝爾方面的表現方面有足夠的優勢 - 這就是為什麼我們對整個公司的指導感到滿意。

Sorry about that. We will next go to the line of Noah Poponak with Goldman Sachs.

對於那個很抱歉。接下來我們將討論諾亞·波波納克 (Noah Poponak) 與高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的合作。

Scott, Frank. Just staying on the Aviation margin, I mean, it's a pretty good incremental in the quarter. I think it was a little bit of an easier compare. We kind of a sense what units and price are doing. I think you've had cost input inflation, but you've also cited just kind of supply chain and some internal operating performance, maybe that's been a hurdle. Is that behind you now? Is that no longer an issue as you move through 2024? And is that a tailwind year-over-year?

史考特、弗蘭克.我的意思是，僅維持航空利潤率，本季的增量就相當不錯。我認為這比較容易一些。我們有點了解單位和價格的變化。我認為你已經遇到了成本投入通膨，但你也提到了供應鏈和一些內部營運績效，也許這是一個障礙。現在是在你身後嗎？進入 2024 年，這不再是問題了嗎？這是同比的順風車嗎？

I think you'll still see some pressure in second quarter. No. Remember, a lot of these aircraft are inventories, a lot of that cost is inventory. So it usually takes the first half of the year to bleed out in the performance levels and productivity levels that we saw in the back half of the previous year in 2023 in this case. So I still think we see some pressure for that.

我認為第二季度你仍然會看到一些壓力。不。因此，在這種情況下，我們在 2023 年下半年看到的績效水準和生產力水準通常需要在上半年才能顯現出來。所以我仍然認為我們在這方面看到了一些壓力。

But I'd say the good news is that when we look at the metrics in the factory and the efficiencies, productivity and things of that nature, we are starting to see some of the benefits that we expect to see in a more stable production environment, less supplier disruption, fewer onboarding, so less impact on the training. There's a lot of things the business is doing to try to address some of those issues. So I do think that we'll have margin rates that do continue to improve over the course of the year, but you're still going to have some drag of that inventory release, particularly as you get through Q2.

但我想說的好消息是，當我們查看工廠的指標以及效率、生產率和類似性質的東西時，我們開始看到我們期望在更穩定的生產環境中看到的一些好處，更少的供應商中斷，更少的入職培訓，因此對培訓的影響較小。為了解決其中一些問題，企業正在做很多事情。因此，我確實認為，我們的利潤率在這一年中確實會繼續提高，但庫存釋放仍然會帶來一些拖累，特別是在第二季之後。

Okay. That makes sense. And then I guess just a follow-up on the Bell margin. I know the FLRAA is still ramping and it will kind of exit the year at a different revenue run rate than it achieved in the first quarter. But it's also ramped a decent amount. And I think this year, you'll get pretty close to what the run rate is in the sort of medium term. And this Bell margin just keeps outperforming. I mean the amount of margin compression that was discussed out there in the market, I guess, in the medium term? Is that kind of off the table? Or I guess, how do you see this dollar margin hanging in '24, '25 or '26, just in the medium term as you continue to ramp FLRAA?

好的。這就說得通了。然後我想這只是貝爾利潤的後續行動。我知道 FLRAA 仍在成長，今年結束時的營收運行速度將與第一季不同。但它也增加了相當大的數量。我認為今年，您將非常接近中期的運行率。貝爾的利潤率一直表現出色。我的意思是，我猜，在中期市場上討論的利潤率壓縮程度是多少？這是不可能的嗎？或者我猜，隨著您繼續增加 FLRAA，您如何看待在 24 年、25 年或 26 年中期保持這種美元利潤率？

Well, look, I mean, I think again, the team is performing well. We're doing everything we can on the cost front to deal with the lower production levels, things like the Nigerian order, the additional 5 V-22, these things are all helpful. I guess I would also note and you may have seen, if you look at the FY '25 budget request, one of the allocations of sort of the elimination of FARA and where that money in the out years goes, there is over $200 million of FY '25 money on FLRAA above what was originally in the [FIDAE]. So I do think that we're going to -- we're ramping quite nicely on FLRAA.

嗯，看，我的意思是，我再次認為，球隊表現得很好。我們正在盡一切努力在成本方面應對較低的生產水平，例如尼日利亞的訂單、額外的 5 架 V-22，這些都是有幫助的。我想我還要指出，您可能已經看到，如果您查看 25 財年的預算請求，其中一項是取消 FARA 的撥款，以及未來幾年這筆錢的去向，其中有超過 2 億美元FY ' 25 的FLRAA 資金高於最初在[FIDAE] 的資金。所以我確實認為我們將會——我們在 FLRAA 上進展得相當好。

We'll actually probably see that increase in terms of the number of revenues on FLRAA as we get into 2025 above what we might have originally expected on the FIDAE . So that's another couple of hundred million dollar probably revenue step as we get into next year. So look, we'll continue to stay very focused on the cost side and executing and perform against all these programs. And as I said, I think that will drive us to the higher side of the revenue guide -- part of the -- I'm sorry, the margin guide for this year, and we'll certainly get back to you on the FY '25 guide sometime in January, February.

實際上，當我們進入 2025 年時，我們可能會看到 FLRAA 的收入數量增加，高於我們最初對 FIDAE 的預期。因此，當我們進入明年時，這可能是另外幾億美元的收入步驟。因此，我們將繼續非常關注成本方面，並針對所有這些計劃執行和執行。正如我所說，我認為這將推動我們達到收入指南的較高水平 - 對不起，今年的利潤指南的一部分，我們肯定會在財年回复您'25 指南在一月、二月的某個時間。

Okay. And Frank, I guess, a decent amount or a lot of the items below segment manufacturing segment EBIT were pretty different in the quarter compared to what the full year implied on a quarterly run rate. If I look at what Aviation did finance did tax rate, corporate interest, even. Is it worth updating those on a full year basis? Or are they all just kind of still looking like the land in the range of what you had originally embedded in the earnings guidance?

好的。弗蘭克，我想，與季度運行率所暗示的全年相比，該季度的製造部門息稅前利潤之下的相當數量或許多項目有很大不同。如果我看看航空業的融資狀況，甚至包括稅率、企業利息。是否值得全年更新這些內容？或者它們看起來仍然像您最初納入收益指引的範圍內的土地嗎？

Well, I think that finance will be in the range of what we had thought. We talked about corporate expense was kind of significantly higher this first quarter due to share price performance. But we'll kind of stick with that type of range. I think interest expense relative to, I don't know what -- we didn't really guide interest expense, but our -- I guess, we're probably a little better on interest expense, excuse me, relative to the $90 million depending on what interest rates do for the year.

嗯，我認為金融將在我們想像的範圍內。我們談到，由於股價表現，第一季公司支出明顯較高。但我們會堅持這種類型的範圍。我認為利息支出相對於，我不知道是什麼——我們並沒有真正指導利息支出，但是我們的——我想，相對於 9000 萬美元，我們在利息支出方面可能會好一些。利率變動。

Our investment in cash is a little better than we had thought given the continuing higher interest rates, so there's probably a benefit there. But the other stuff is kind of in the range of what we had talked about.

鑑於利率持續走高，我們的現金投資比我們想像的要好一些，所以這可能是有好處的。但其他的事情都在我們討論的範圍之內。

Next, we have a question from Doug Harned with Bernstein.

接下來，我們有來自伯恩斯坦的道格·哈內德的問題。

I wanted to go back to your discussion around pricing at aviation. This has been a great story with continuing to be able to get pricing ahead of inflation. But when you look at this, and I'd say outside of what you have in the order book right now. When you try and plan longer term, is this something you can expect to continue? Or do you have to look at this as eventually pricing is going to come back and kind of converge with inflation rates?

我想回到你們關於航空定價的討論。這是一個很棒的故事，能夠繼續在通貨膨脹之前獲得定價。但當你看到這個時，我會說超出了你現在訂單簿中的內容。當您嘗試制定長期計劃時，您可以期望繼續這樣做嗎？或者你必須考慮這一點，因為最終定價將會回歸並與通貨膨脹率趨同？

Jeez, I don't know. I mean, obviously, I would say at a macro level, generally speaking, over very long periods of time, price inflation probably end up pretty close. I think we certainly went through a number of years in this industry where the prices were where the products were way under price. I mean it just doesn't make sense.

天哪，我不知道。我的意思是，顯然，我會說，在宏觀層面上，一般來說，在很長一段時間內，價格通膨最終可能會非常接近。我認為我們在這個行業確實經歷了很多年，產品的價格遠低於價格。我的意思是這沒有意義。

So I mean, we had a significant catch up in price. I think got them back to much closer to where they should be. And obviously, our expectation is you're going to continue to see inflation on a go-forward basis, and we expect to see pricing increasing on a go-forward basis. And then we're seeing that. I mean pricing in the market is solid. And beyond that, I'm not sure how to forecast over a long period of time. But we still think demand is strong and the price environment is also doing well. As I said, I think when we guided, we talked about the fact that you wouldn't see as significant a price -- absolute price increase, as you saw in the last couple of years, but you also see some inflation starting to come down as well. So anyway for us, what's important is that we have net pricing positive over inflation.

所以我的意思是，我們在價格上有了很大的提升。我認為讓他們回到了更接近他們應該在的位置。顯然，我們的預期是未來將繼續看到通貨膨脹，我們預計價格將繼續上漲。然後我們就看到了這一點。我的意思是市場定價是穩定的。除此之外，我不確定如何預測很長一段時間。但我們仍然認為需求強勁，價格環境也表現良好。正如我所說，我認為當我們指導時，我們討論了這樣一個事實，即您不會看到像過去幾年那樣顯著的價格 - 絕對價格上漲，但您也看到一些通貨膨脹開始出現也下來了。因此，無論如何，對我們來說，重要的是我們的淨定價相對於通膨而言是正數。

Okay. And then just switching over to Bell for a moment on -- again, on margins. You've talked in the past, and I think as one would expect, initially, FLRAA is dilutive. But when you look at that trajectory now that you're moving forward, you're headed toward [Milestone B], I would expect long term, this is a very accretive program once you're in full rate production. Can you give us a sense of how you expect kind of the time line of FLRAA's contribution to margins to proceed?

好的。然後再一次切換到貝爾，再次是在邊緣。您過去曾談過，我認為正如人們所預料的那樣，FLRAA 最初是稀釋性的。但是當你看到現在你正在前進的軌跡時，你正在走向[里程碑B]，我預計從長遠來看，一旦你全速生產，這是一個非常增值的計劃。您能否告訴我們您預計 FLRAA 對利潤貢獻的時間表會如何進行？

Well, I mean, I think that -- as you described, that's kind of what you would nominally expect for any of these large defense contract programs, FLRAA is a very big program, right? So the EMD phase of this thing goes out through into 2030. Now you'll start to see, I would suspect initial production lots. We have LRIP deliveries that happen out in 2028, but you'll start to see some of the follow-on production lots be negotiated out in that time frame. But certainly, the next several years is very much dominated by the EMD program.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為 - 正如您所描述的，這就是您名義上對任何這些大型國防合約項目的期望，FLRAA 是一個非常大的項目，對吧？所以這個東西的 EMD 階段會持續到 2030 年。我們的 LRIP 交付將於 2028 年進行，但您將開始看到一些後續生產批次在該時間範圍內協商確定。但可以肯定的是，未來幾年將主要由 EMD 計劃主導。

Okay. And that would be dilutive in that period.

好的。在那段時期，這將被稀釋。

Yes. Correct.

是的。正確的。

Next, we go to the line of Jason Gursky with Citigroup.

接下來，我們來看看傑森古斯基（Jason Gursky）與花旗集團的關係。

Good morning, everybody. I was wondering if you could spend a little bit time on eAviation. Maybe provide us a little bit of an update on how things are going in that business and the development that you've got going on there? And kind of what the -- the next couple of years look like for you all on product development revenue and how EBIT is going to trend for us here over the next few years given that backdrop?

大家早安。我想知道您是否可以花一點時間在 eAviation 上。也許可以向我們提供一些有關該業務進展情況以及您在那裡進行的開發的最新資訊？未來幾年，你們所有人的產品開發收入會是什麼樣子？

Sure. So look, I think there's obviously a couple of pieces that are in here, right? There's the Pivotal business, which I think is doing well. We're seeing -- we saw a significant increase in the number of deliveries here in Q1. I think demand for those products is strong. So we feel pretty good about where that is.

當然。所以看，我想這裡顯然有幾塊，對吧？我認為 Pivotal 業務做得很好。我們看到，第一季的交付數量顯著增加。我認為對這些產品的需求很強。所以我們對它的位置感覺很好。

As I mentioned, we did get an FAA exemption on the ability to do flight training on the Bell's electro, which is fundamentally a training aircraft. So I think that will help us pick up volume as we can now sell those and use those for training in the U.S. domestic market. It's already been accepted, and we've seen nice growth in the international markets. We have a couple of new products that are in that in that product line, I think we'll do well. So I think we feel very good about how the Pipistrel guys are doing and how that's performing.

正如我所提到的，我們確實獲得了美國聯邦航空局的豁免，可以在貝爾電動飛機上進行飛行訓練，貝爾電動飛機本質上是一架訓練飛機。因此，我認為這將有助於我們增加銷量，因為我們現在可以出售這些產品並將其用於美國國內市場的培訓。它已經被接受，我們在國際市場上看到了良好的成長。我們在該產品線上有一些新產品，我認為我們會做得很好。所以我認為我們對 Pipistrel 團隊的表現和表現感到非常滿意。

On the R&D, which is really the dominant piece of what's driving the financials in that segment, we have the Nexus program, which is progressing well. We're doing the full integration and testing of the first craft. We'll probably see -- we're already sort of doing ground testing and evaluation already. We'll probably see flight test later on this year on the Nexus front. That program is also, I'd say, progressing well. Most of the supplier selections are done. Parts coming in, we're starting to build the first airframe with an expectation that we would probably fly that sometime next year.

在研發方面，這確實是推動該領域財務的主要部分，我們有 Nexus 計劃，該計劃進展順利。我們正在對第一艘飛船進行全面整合和測試。我們可能會看到——我們已經在進行地面測試和評估了。我們可能會在今年稍後看到 Nexus 的飛行測試。我想說，該計劃也進展順利。大部分供應商選擇已經完成。零件進來後，我們開始建造第一架機身，預計明年某個時候我們可能會飛行。

So that's really what drives the financial side. Now I would say that we're -- the level of investment that we're making right now into those programs is probably going to level off. So we saw -- as we've guided, we saw a significant increase from '22 to '23 and now '23 to '24 and those -- that level of spending is probably going to level out going forward. So we'll start to see some EBIT increased contribution on the Pipistrel product sales side. So I think that's clearly a segment that the investments in Nexus and in the newer program, we're going to continue to have us in a loss position, but it probably stabilizes going out the next few years.

所以這才是財務方面的真正驅動力。現在我想說的是，我們現在對這些項目的投資水準可能會趨於平穩。因此，正如我們所指導的那樣，我們看到從 22 年到 23 年以及現在的 23 年到 24 年等等，支出水準顯著增加，未來支出水準可能會趨於平穩。因此，我們將開始看到 Pipistrel 產品銷售的息稅前利潤貢獻增加。因此，我認為這顯然是 Nexus 和新項目的投資領域，我們將繼續處於虧損狀態，但未來幾年可能會穩定下來。

And as you think about the size of the market that you're going after, you're putting investment dollars against what you expect to be volumes. And so I'm just kind of curious, when do you expect the payback period to start on these investments that you're making?

當您考慮您所追求的市場規模時，您會將投資金額與您預期的銷售量進行比較。所以我有點好奇，您預計您所做的這些投資的投資回收期是什麼時候開始？

Okay. So I think this is very much an unknown. I mean, there's plenty of studies out there and a lot of other noise in this industry that when you look at the eVTOL side of things, that it's a mega market. The exact timing of that, I think, is still a little bit to be determined. There's still plenty of work to do on the technical front from our perspective, technical work, regulatory work to make sure that there's viable products to meet that mission. So again, I think there's plenty of independent third-party data out there that has perspectives about how huge that market could be.

好的。所以我認為這在很大程度上是一個未知數。我的意思是，這個行業有大量的研究和許多其他的噪音，當你看看 eVTOL 方面的事情時，你會發現這是一個巨大的市場。我認為，具體時間仍有待確定。從我們的角度來看，在技術方面仍有大量工作要做，技術工作、監管工作，以確保有可行的產品來滿足這項使命。再說一次，我認為有大量獨立的第三方數據可以預測這個市場有多大。

Keep in mind as our spending here is relatively modest. I think we're taking advantage of a lot of cost and cost structure and talent and capability that we already have in the company. So if the market proves to be what third parties would say the market would prove to be, it's going to be a massive return on investment.

請記住，我們在這裡的支出相對較少。我認為我們正在利用公司現有的大量成本和成本結構以及人才和能力。因此，如果市場被證明是第三方所說的那樣，那麼這將是巨大的投資回報。

Next, we go to George Shapiro with Shapiro Research.

接下來，我們請教夏皮羅研究中心的喬治‧夏皮羅。

Scott, the incremental margin in Aviation, as people were talking about was, I mean, like 46%. And I recognize that revenue differences are small, so the numbers can get somewhat distorted. But given that you said inflation will probably pretty much be somewhat similar to the price benefit that you got this quarter. Why won't those incrementals for the rest of the year run somewhat higher than kind of your objective of 20%?

Scott，我的意思是，正如人們所談論的，航空業的增量利潤率約為 46%。我認識到收入差異很小，因此數字可能會有些扭曲。但考慮到您所說的通貨膨脹可能與您本季獲得的價格收益非常相似。為什麼今年剩餘時間的增量不會高於您 20% 的目標？

Well, George, look, I mean I think when we look at the cost and what's going to come out of inventory and what the margin rates are going to look like, it's, I do think you're right. We did have a higher conversion on Q1, but that's certainly, I think, certainly higher than we would expect for the course of the year. So I think at this point, as we look at it, our expectations in terms of what inflation is going to look like, what plant performance is going to look like, which, as I said, is for sure improving through the course of the year as we get towards the high side of guide there, it's that 20% kind of range, which is generally what we've guided as a long-term measurement for the business. And I think that's where we'll be.

好吧，喬治，我的意思是，當我們考慮成本、庫存量以及利潤率時，我確實認為你是對的。我們在第一季的轉換率確實較高，但我認為，這肯定高於我們對全年的預期。因此，我認為，在這一點上，正如我們所看到的，我們對通貨膨脹的預期，工廠業績的預期，正如我所說，在整個過程中肯定會有所改善。上限時，就是20% 的範圍，這通常是我們作為業務長期衡量標準所指導的範圍。我認為這就是我們的目標。

Okay. And one quick one for you, Frank. You bought a lot of stock in the first quarter, like 1.8% of the outstanding I guess it was pretty opportunistic? Or do we expect that you might buy more than 5% for this year?

好的。法蘭克，快給你一份。你在第一季買了很多股票，像是流通股的 1.8%，我猜這是相當機會主義的？或者我們預計您今年可能會購買超過 5% 的股票？

Well, we talked about kind of 5% was in our guidance, but we also talked about the fact that we have a strong liquidity position, and we're going to return excess capital. So I think that kind of -- we did a fair amount in the first quarter. We'll continue to buy from here. We'll probably be on the higher side of that 5% for the year.

嗯，我們談到了我們的指導中的 5%，但我們也談到了我們擁有強大的流動性頭寸這一事實，我們將返還多餘的資本。所以我認為，我們在第一季做了相當多的工作。我們將繼續從這裡購買。今年我們的成長率可能會高於 5%。

Next, we go to the line of Ron Epstein with Bank of America.

接下來，我們轉到羅恩愛潑斯坦 (Ron Epstein) 與美國銀行的聯繫。

Just maybe circling back on the defense business in the supplemental that just got passed yesterday. Is there stuff in there for you guys? I mean have you looked -- obviously you've look at it, but can you give us a sense of potentially what's in there for Systems or Bell?

也許只是在昨天剛通過的補充文件中回顧國防事務。裡面有東西給你們嗎？我的意思是你有沒有看過——顯然你已經看過了，但是你能讓我們了解 Systems 或 Bell 的潛在潛力嗎？

No, there's not. I mean we really haven't been in the in the guns and bullet business. So most of that stuff is not replenishments of things that we have. I do think there's opportunities in Ukraine over time when you look at things that are possibilities for Bell on some other things and systems, but not something that's directly tied to these supplementals.

不，沒有。我的意思是我們確實沒有涉足槍支和子彈行業。所以大部分東西都不是我們現有東西的補充。我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，當你看看貝爾在其他一些事物和系統上的可能性，但不是與這些補充品直接相關的事物時，烏克蘭就會有機會。

Got it. Got it. And then kind of back to aviation. Broadly, how is this supply chain doing in that? One of the things I've heard oddly enough is like window screens, windshields for airplanes or there's a shortage of those. I mean is there other stuff like that, that's just kind of random stuff to just kind of short in supply.

知道了。知道了。然後回到航空領域。整體而言，該供應鏈在這方面表現如何？我聽到的一件很奇怪的事情就是像窗紗、飛機擋風玻璃或這些都短缺。我的意思是還有其他類似的東西，那隻是一種隨機的東西，只是供應短缺。

Well, look, Ron, as we said, it's the randomness is part of what drives us crazy, right? It's -- and they change over time. But you're absolutely right. Windshields have been a problem now for several years. And it's, I'd say, probably getting better, but it's been a big problem. It's been a problem for us in terms of production builds. And frankly, it's been a big problem for us in terms of our customers.

好吧，聽著，羅恩，正如我們所說，隨機性是讓我們發瘋的一部分，對吧？它們會隨著時間而改變。但你是絕對正確的。多年來，擋風玻璃一直是一個問題。我想說，情況可能會好轉，但這是一個大問題。就生產建造而言，這對我們來說是一個問題。坦白說，對於我們的客戶而言，這對我們來說是一個大問題。

If somebody has a damaged windscreen and it's been an area of a lot of dissatisfaction in the industry, not just for the OEMs like us but also for our ability to provide spares in service. So it is -- certainly has been and remains one of the top problem items by category.

如果有人的擋風玻璃損壞，這會成為行業中許多人不滿意的一個領域，不僅對像我們這樣的原始設備製造商來說，而且對我們提供服務備件的能力也不滿意。因此，它確實一直是並且仍然是按類別劃分的首要問題項目之一。

Yes. When I heard that I was astonished, but yes, I guess the current suppliers shut down the other supplier, whatever.

是的。當我聽到這個消息時，我很驚訝，但是，是的，我想目前的供應商關閉了另一個供應商，無論如何。

Next, we go to Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將採訪摩根士丹利的克里斯汀·利瓦格 (Kristine Liwag)。

Scott, earlier you mentioned on industrial, how you're seeing incremental weakness in the high-end consumer. Can you talk about the customer profile of those buyers? And if there are similarities to the customer profile for products like M2 or pistons or Couriers in aviation?

斯科特，您之前提到工業方面，您如何看到高端消費者的疲軟。您能談談這些買家的客戶概況嗎？ M2、活塞或航空快遞等產品的顧客概況是否有相似之處？

So I don't know exactly in terms of categorization of that customer per se. But I think that if you look at demand for all the way down to piston. The system 172, demand remains very strong, and we expect to have strong deliveries even over last year, but availability, the demand environment is very strong for that kind of stuff.

所以我不太清楚該客戶本身的分類。但我認為，如果你看看活塞的需求。系統 172 的需求仍然非常強勁，我們預計即使是去年的交付量也會強勁，但在可用性方面，此類產品的需求環境非常強勁。

And too strong. I mean these are products that we see strength in terms of demand across the product line. I don't think they're the same customer maybe or the same consumer perhaps. But I think if you look -- now certainly, what we're seeing and we look at other companies. If you're in the business of doing boats, RVs, recreational vehicles, PTVs, that consumer has clearly slowed down. They slowed down last year, and we did make some adjustments based on that, but we've seen further slowing on that. But yes, I don't know how to categorize whether it's the same customer or not, but certainly those product categories have slowed down and everything from pistons up into light jets has not. And of course, that's a much bigger, much more important business to us, which is good, I suppose.

而且太強了。我的意思是，我們認為這些產品在整個產品線的需求上都具有優勢。我不認為他們可能是同一個客戶或同一個消費者。但我認為，如果你看看——現在當然，我們所看到的以及我們看到的其他公司。如果您從事船舶、房車、休閒車、PTV 業務，那麼消費者的消費速度顯然已經放緩。去年他們放緩了，我們確實在此基礎上做了一些調整，但我們看到了進一步放緩。但是，是的，我不知道如何對是否是同一個客戶進行分類，但可以肯定的是，這些產品類別已經放緩，從活塞到輕型噴射機的所有產品都沒有放緩。當然，這對我們來說是一項更大、更重要的業務，我想這很好。

Next, we go over to Gavin Parsons with UBS.

接下來，我們請教瑞銀集團的加文‧帕森斯。

I just want to confirm if I heard the restructuring savings are expected at $185 million, given I think the initial plan was $75 million. And just what's driving the better number there?

我只是想確認一下我是否聽說重組節省預計為 1.85 億美元，因為我認為最初的計劃是 7500 萬美元。到底是什麼推動了那裡的數字更好呢？

Yes. That's a full kind of run rate when we get through it all. And it's really driven by the addition of head count reductions. The unanticipated Shadow, FARA and then the additional actions at Industrial are really focused on head count where the original restructuring had some asset impairment in it. And so we're getting a much bigger run rate savings as a result of those reductions to kind of rightsize those activities.

是的。當我們完成這一切時，這就是完整的運行率。這實際上是由裁員的增加所推動的。意料之外的 Shadow、FARA 以及隨後在 Industrial 採取的其他行動實際上都集中在人員數量上，而最初的重組中存在一些資產減值。因此，由於這些活動的減少，我們獲得了更大的運行率節省。

Got it. Okay. What is the transition from shadow to FTUAS look like in terms of kind of revenue and margins over what time frame?

知道了。好的。從收入和利潤的類型來看，在多長時間內從影子到 FTUAS 的過渡是什麼樣的？

Well, look, I think that's still a little bit to be determined when the Army canceled the Shadow program. They did say they wanted to move more aggressively on FTUAS, we have seen that in the awards now of option 3 and 4, which is good. There aren't, I don't think, formally published dates, but the dates that we hear about in terms of when they'll put an RFP out on The Street for the ultimate EMD production decisions, sounds like they're probably pulling that forward to where that RFP could come out as early as even late this year, which would lead to an early '25 calendar year award, which should be great. So the exact size and scope and therefore, the revenue and the margin is -- we just don't have visibility to that at this point.

好吧，看，我認為當陸軍取消影子計劃時，這仍然有一點有待確定。他們確實表示希望在 FTUAS 上採取更積極的行動，我們已經在選項 3 和 4 的獎項中看到了這一點，這很好。我認為，目前還沒有正式公佈的日期，但我們聽到的關於他們何時在華爾街發布 RFP 以做出最終 EMD 製作決策的日期，聽起來他們可能會推遲預計RFP 最早甚至可能在今年年底發布，這將導致提前獲得25 日曆年獎項，這應該很棒。因此，確切的規模和範圍，以及收入和利潤——我們目前還無法了解這一點。

This conference is being recorded for digitized replay and will be available after 10 a.m. Eastern Time today through April 25, 2025. You may access the replay by dialing (866) 207-1041 and enter the access code 8546032. This does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

本次會議正在錄製數位化重播，並將在東部時間今天上午10 點後至2025 年4 月25 日期間提​​供。到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。