達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Welcome to the Textron Q4 2024 earnings release call.

歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第四季財報發布電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Also, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）此外，今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Now at this time, I'll turn things over to Mr. Dave Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在這個時候，我將把事情交給投資者關係副總裁 Dave Rosenberg 先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thanks, Bo, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝，Bo，大家早安。

Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today.

在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release.

這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。

On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。

Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.6 billion, down from $3.9 billion in last year's fourth quarter.

本季營收為 36 億美元，低於去年第四季的 39 億美元。

Segment profit in the quarter was $283 million, down $101 million from the fourth quarter of 2023.

該季度的部門利潤為 2.83 億美元，比 2023 年第四季減少 1.01 億美元。

During this year's fourth quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.34 per share compared to $1.60 per share in last year's fourth quarter.

今年第四季度，調整後的持續營運收入為每股 1.34 美元，而去年第四季為每股 1.60 美元。

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $306 million in the quarter, down $74 million from last year's fourth quarter.

本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總計 3.06 億美元，比去年第四季減少 7,400 萬美元。

For the full year, revenues were $13.7 billion, up $19 million from last year.

全年營收為 137 億美元，比去年增加 1,900 萬美元。

In 2024, segment profit was $1.2 billion, down $127 million from 2023.

2024年，該部門利潤為12億美元，比2023年減少1.27億美元。

Adjusted income from continuing operations was $5.48 per share as compared to $5.59 per share in 2023.

調整後的持續經營收入為每股 5.48 美元，而 2023 年為每股 5.59 美元。

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $692 million, down $239 million from 2023.

退休金繳款前的製造業現金流為 6.92 億美元，比 2023 年減少 2.39 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Good morning, everyone. 2024 results were impacted by work stoppage aviation in difficult end markets in our Industrial segment.

大家早安。 2024 年業績受到工業部門困難終端市場停工航空的影響。

During the quarter, Aviation reached an agreement with the IAM on a new five-year contract.

本季度，航空與 IAM 就一份新的五年合約達成協議。

While the strike was unfortunate, we did take this opportunity to significantly improve our parts flow to the production line, which we expect will reduce our station work and improve efficiency going forward.

雖然罷工很不幸，但我們確實藉此機會顯著改善了生產線的零件流程，我們預計這將減少我們的工作站工作並提高未來的效率。

Aviation saw steady customer demand continue in the quarter, supported by new product launches and our portfolio resulted in a year-end backlog of $7.8 billion, an increase of $676 million from 2023.

在新產品發布和我們的產品組合的支持下，本季航空業的客戶需求持續穩定，導致年底積壓訂單達到 78 億美元，比 2023 年增加了 6.76 億美元。

In December, Aviation secured an order from Naval Air Systems Command for an additional 26 multi-engine training system, Beechcraft King Air 260s.

12 月，航空部門從海軍航空系統司令部獲得了額外 26 架多引擎訓練系統 Beechcraft King Air 260 的訂單。

Also in the quarter, Aviation continued to expand the global market for its versatile twin-engine large utility turboprop Cessna SkyCourier, achieving type certification by the transport Canada's Civil Aviation.

同樣在本季度，Aviation 繼續擴大其多功能雙引擎大型實用渦輪螺旋槳飛機 Cessna SkyCourier 的全球市場，並獲得了加拿大民航運輸部的型號認證。

During 2024, steady aircraft utilization within the Textron Aviation product portfolio resulted in a 6.3% growth in aftermarket revenues.

2024 年，德事隆航空產品組合中飛機的穩定使用導致售後市場收入成長 6.3%。

At Bell, in 2024, we saw significant growth with the continued expansion of the FARA program, largely driving a 13.7% increase in revenues for the year.

在貝爾，2024 年，隨著 FARA 計畫的持續擴展，我們看到了顯著成長，很大程度上推動了當年營收成長 13.7%。

During the quarter, Bell received a follow-on award for the FLRAA program as the US Army exercised option two -- and option for two limited user test aircraft.

在本季度，隨著美國陸軍執行選項二以及兩架有限用戶測試飛機的選項，貝爾獲得了 FLRAA 計劃的後續合約。

On the commercial side, Bell continues to see steady order activity in 2024.

在商業方面，貝爾在 2024 年繼續看到穩定的訂單活動。

For the year, Bell delivered 172 commercial helicopters compared to 171 in 2023.

貝爾今年交付了 172 架商用直升機，而 2023 年交付了 171 架。

Moving to Systems.

轉向系統。

The team delivered another strong quarter with a 13.5% segment profit margin.

該團隊再次實現了強勁的季度業績，部門利潤率為 13.5%。

During the quarter, Systems completed options three and four of the future tactical uncrewed aircraft system program with the delivery of a production representative system to the US Army in December.

在本季度，Systems 完成了未來戰術無人駕駛飛機系統計畫的方案三和方案四，並於 12 月向美國陸軍交付了生產代表系統。

Also during the quarter, Systems received an award from the Naval Sea Systems Command for the next production lot of nine ship-to-store connector crafts with a total contract value of $960 million.

同樣在本季度，Systems 還獲得了海軍海洋系統司令部授予的下一批生產 9 艘船到店連接器工藝的合同，合同總價值為 9.6 億美元。

Systems was also awarded a contract value of up to $106 million for mine sweeping payload delivery systems from the US Navy to support its mine sweeping operations.

Systems公司還獲得了美國海軍價值高達1.06億美元的掃雷有效載荷輸送系統合同，以支持其掃雷行動。

At Industrial, the segment experienced lower revenues and operating profit in the quarter, primarily driven by the ongoing softness in specialized vehicles end markets.

在工業領域，該部門本季營收和營業利潤下降，主要是由於專用車輛終端市場持續疲軟。

We are in the process of conducting a strategic review of our powersports product line.

我們正在對我們的動力運動產品線進行策略性審查。

At Aviation, delivered 42 aircraft during the fourth quarter and 120 aircraft for the full year while continuing our investment in electric and hybrid aviation platforms.

在航空方面，第四季度交付了 42 架飛機，全年交付了 120 架飛機，同時繼續投資於電動和混合動力航空平台。

Despite the challenges faced in 2024 at Aviation and Industrial, the company exited the year well positioned for future growth in the Aerospace and Defense businesses with strong order activity generating total company backlog of $17.9 billion, up $4 billion in 2023.

儘管航空和工業業務在2024 年面臨挑戰，但該公司在2024 年為航空航太和國防業務的未來成長做好了充分準備，訂單活動強勁，公司積壓訂單總額達179 億美元，比2023 年增加40億美元。

On the new product front at NBAA in October, Aviation announced a significant advancement in aviation technology with the Gen 3 platform upgrades to the M2 CJ3 and CG4 aircraft, adding Garmin Emergency Autoland along with other avionics and aircraft enhancements.

在 10 月 NBAA 的新產品方面，航空宣布了航空技術的重大進步，對 M2 CJ3 和 CG4 飛機進行了第三代平台升級，添加了 Garmin 緊急自動著陸系統以及其他航空電子設備和飛機增強功能。

During the year, we continue to make progress on the Citation Ascend and Beechcraft Denali development programs.

這一年中，我們在 Citation Ascend 和 Beechcraft Denali 開發案上繼續取得進展。

Ascend has logged over 700 hours of flight testing while Denali finished the year having logged over 2,500 hours of flight testing.

Ascend 已完成超過 700 小時的飛行測試，而 Denali 在今年結束時已完成超過 2,500 小時的飛行測試。

At Bell, the US Army announced approval of Milestone B in August for the FLRAA program.

在貝爾，美國陸軍於 8 月宣布批准 FLRAA 計劃的 Milestone B。

Bell is now executing on the engineering and manufacturing development phase of the program and progressing towards the first prototype aircraft build.

貝爾目前正在執行該計劃的工程和製造開發階段，並朝著第一架原型機的建造邁進。

Bell H-1 and V-22 military program highlights include an FMS award for the production and delivery of 12 AH-1 Zulu helicopters in Nigeria and over $1 billion in sustainment awards on the H-1 and V-22 programs.

貝爾 H-1 和 V-22 軍事計劃亮點包括為在尼日利亞生產和交付 12 架 AH-1 Zulu 直升機而獲得的 FMS 獎項，以及為 H-1 和 V-22 項目提供超過 10 億美元的維持獎項。

On the commercial side, Bell saw steady demand throughout the year, including its first 525 helicopter order for 10 units to Equinor, the Norwegian State Energy Company.

在商業方面，貝爾全年需求穩定，包括向挪威國家能源公司 Equinor 訂購了 10 架首個 525 架直升機訂單。

In 2024, Textron Systems made significant progress on several key pursuits.

2024 年，德事隆系統公司在多項關鍵目標上取得了重大進展。

On the US Army's Robotic Command Vehicle development program, Systems announced the delivery of two Repsol M3 prototype vehicles to the Army for Phase 1 of the competitive development effort ahead of a down slice expected in the first half of 2025.

在美國陸軍機器人指揮車開發計畫中，Systems 宣布向陸軍交付兩輛 Repsol M3 原型車，用於競爭性開發工作的第一階段，預計將於 2025 年上半年進行縮減。

As part of the XM30 program, TeamLink advanced to the detailed design phase and is expected to conclude with a critical design review in the first half of 2025.

作為 XM30 計劃的一部分，TeamLink 已進入詳細設計階段，預計將於 2025 年上半年完成關鍵設計審查。

On the Advanced Reconnaissance Vehicle program, Systems continued its development work as one of two vendors selected to design, develop and manufacture a 30 millimeter autocannon variant for expected delivery in 2025.

在高級偵察車專案中，Systems 作為被選中設計、開發和製造 30 毫米自動加農炮變型的兩家供應商之一，繼續其開發工作，預計於 2025 年交付。

Moving to FTUAS.

搬到 FTUAS。

Systems has fulfilled its contractual delivery commitments as awaiting decision on the final downside for a production award on the competitive program by the US Army in the second half of 2025.

Systems 已履行其合約交付承諾，正在等待美國陸軍 2025 年下半年競爭性專案生產合約的最終決定。

Systems also secured the next production contract award for the shift-to-shore connector and expanded maritime operations with US Navy.

Systems 還獲得了下一個移至岸上連接器的生產合同，並擴大了與美國海軍的海上業務。

Moving to Industrial.

轉向工業。

Throughout the year, we continue to focus on our cost structure to offset challenging end markets.

全年，我們持續關注成本結構，以應對終端市場的挑戰。

At Aviation, granted an airworthiness exemption by the FAA for its stealth selector trainer, which allows US flight schools to use the aircraft and certified pilot training programs.

在航空領域，美國聯邦航空局授予其隱形選擇教練機適航豁免，允許美國飛行學校使用該飛機和經過認證的飛行員訓練計畫。

During the year, Aviation acquired Amazilia Aerospace, developer of digital flight controls, flight guidance and vehicle management systems for both manned and unmanned aircraft.

今年，Aviation 收購了 Amazilia Aerospace，該公司是有人和無人機數位飛行控制、飛行導引和車輛管理系統的開發商。

Looking to 2025 at eAviation, we're projecting growth driven by increased deliveries across all product lines and higher aftermarket volume and improved productivity and manufacturing efficiency.

展望 2025 年，eAviation 預計成長將由所有產品線交付量的增加、售後市場銷量的增加以及生產率和製造效率的提高所推動。

Moving to Bell, we expect revenue growth driven by the FLRAA program and higher commercial volumes.

轉向貝爾，我們預計 FLRAA 計劃和更高的商業銷售將推動營收成長。

At Systems, we expect low single-digit revenue growth with strong margins as we continue to pursue new program opportunities.

在 Systems，隨著我們繼續尋求新的計劃機會，我們預計收入將實現低個位數成長，利潤率將強勁。

In our Industrial segment, we are projecting lower revenues largely driven by the suspension of powersports production at TSV and lower automotive volume in Kautex and expect cost reductions to drive improvement in segment profit margin for 2025.

在我們的工業部門，我們預計收入下降主要是由於 TSV 動力運動生產的暫停和考泰斯汽車銷量的下降，並預計成本降低將推動 2025 年部門利潤率的改善。

At eAviation, we plan to continue our investment in the development of new hybrid and electric technologies for manned and unmanned aviation platforms.

在 eAviation，我們計劃繼續投資開發用於有人和無人駕駛航空平台的新型混合動力和電動技術。

With this overall backdrop, we're projecting revenues of about $14.7 billion, up 7% from 2024 for Textron's 2025 fiscal year.

在此整體背景下，我們預期德事隆 2025 財年的營收約為 147 億美元，較 2024 年成長 7%。

We are projecting adjusted EPS in the range of $6 to $6.20. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is expected to be in the range of $800 million to $900 million.

我們預計調整後每股收益將在 6 美元至 6.20 美元之間。退休金繳款前的製造業現金流預計在 8 億至 9 億美元之間。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thank you, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，斯科特，大家早安。

Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

Revenues at Textron Aviation of $1.3 billion were down $242 million from the fourth quarter of 2023, reflecting lower volume and mix of $282 million, which was principally a result of production disruptions related to the strike.

德事隆航空的營收為 13 億美元，較 2023 年第四季減少 2.42 億美元，反映出銷量和組合減少了 2.82 億美元，這主要是由於罷工導致的生產中斷。

Segment profit was $100 million in the fourth quarter, down $93 million from a year ago, primarily due to lower volume mix and manufacturing inefficiencies, which included idle facility costs and higher costs associated with the labor disruption resulting from the strike.

第四季的部門利潤為 1 億美元，比去年同期減少 9,300 萬美元，主要是由於產量組合減少和製造效率低下，其中包括閒置設施成本以及與罷工造成的勞動力中斷相關的成本上升。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.8 billion, up $219 million from the prior quarter.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達到 78 億美元，比上一季增加 2.19 億美元。

Moving to Bell.

搬到貝爾。

Revenues were $1.1 billion, up $58 million from last year's fourth quarter, reflecting higher military and support program revenues of $67 million, primarily due to higher volume on the FARA program partially offset by lower volume on the V-22 program.

收入為 11 億美元，比去年第四季增加 5,800 萬美元，反映出軍事和支援項目收入增加了 6,700 萬美元，這主要是由於 FARA 項目銷量增加被 V-22 項目銷量下降部分抵消。

Segment profit of $110 million was down $8 million from a year ago, primarily driven by mix as lower volume on the V-22 program offset higher volume on the FLRAA program.

該部門利潤為 1.1 億美元，較上年同期減少 800 萬美元，主要是由於 V-22 項目銷量下降抵消了 FLRAA 項目銷量上升的影響。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.5 billion.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 75 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $311 million, down $3 million from last year's fourth quarter.

德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.11 億美元，比去年第四季減少 300 萬美元。

Segment profit of $42 million was up $7 million from last year's fourth quarter.

部門利潤為 4,200 萬美元，比去年第四季增加了 700 萬美元。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $2.6 billion.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 26 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $869 million, down $92 million from last year's fourth quarter, largely reflecting lower volume.

工業收入為 8.69 億美元，比去年第四季減少 9,200 萬美元，主要反映了銷售量的下降。

Segment profit of $48 million was down $9 million from the fourth quarter of 2023, reflecting lower volume and mix and inflation, partially offset by manufacturing efficiencies and lower selling and administrative expense largely due to cost reduction activities.

部門利潤為 4,800 萬美元，較 2023 年第四季減少 900 萬美元，反映出產量、結構和通貨膨脹的下降，但部分被製造效率以及主要由於成本削減活動導致的銷售和管理費用下降所抵消。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $11 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a segment loss of $22 million, largely associated with research and development expense on new products.

德事隆 eAviation 部門 2024 年第四季營收為 1,100 萬美元，部門虧損 2,200 萬美元，主要與新產品的研發費用有關。

Finance segment revenues were $11 million and the profit was $5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

2024 年第四季金融部門營收為 1,100 萬美元，利潤為 500 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit.

低於部門利潤。

Corporate expenses were $17 million.

公司開支為 1700 萬美元。

Net interest expense for the manufacturing group was $21 million. LIFO

製造集團的淨利息支出為 2,100 萬美元。後進先出

inventory provision was $80 million.

庫存撥備為8000萬美元。

Intangible asset amortization was $8 million.

無形資產攤銷為800萬美元。

And the non-service components of pension and postretirement income were $65 million.

退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6500 萬美元。

In December, we announced a strategic review of our powersports product line within the Industrial segment that resulted in additional restructuring actions.

12 月，我們宣布對工業領域的動力運動產品線進行策略審查，從而採取了額外的重組行動。

With these actions, we recorded total pretax special charges of $53 million, an inventory valuation charge of $38 million in the fourth quarter.

透過這些行動，我們第四季的稅前特殊費用總額為 5,300 萬美元，庫存評估費用為 3,800 萬美元。

Our manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions was $306 million in the quarter.

本季度，我們扣除退休金之前的製造業現金流量為 3.06 億美元。

For the year, manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $692 million, down $239 million from the prior year.

今年，退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總額為 6.92 億美元，比前一年減少 2.39 億美元。

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.8 million shares, returning $232 million in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們回購了約 280 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.32 億美元現金。

For the full year, we repurchased approximately 12.9 million shares, returning $1.1 billion in cash to shareholders.

全年，我們回購了約 1,290 萬股股票，向股東返還了 11 億美元現金。

With that, I'll turn the call over to David.

這樣，我就把電話轉給大衛。

Thank you, Frank.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。

Turning now to our 2025 outlook on slide 7.

現在轉向幻燈片 7 中的 2025 年展望。

We're expecting adjusted earnings per share to be in the range of $6 to $6.20. We're also expecting manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions to be about $800 million to $900 million.

我們預計調整後每股收益將在 6 美元至 6.20 美元之間。我們也預期退休金繳款前的製造業現金流量約為 8 億至 9 億美元。

Moving to segment outlook on slide 8 and beginning with Textron Aviation, we're expecting revenues of about $6.1 billion.

轉到幻燈片 8 上的細分前景，從德事隆航空開始，我們預計收入約為 61 億美元。

Segment margin is expected to be in a range of 12% to 13%.

分部利潤率預計在12%至13%之間。

Looking to Bell, we expect revenues of about $4 billion.

展望貝爾，我們預計營收約 40 億美元。

We're forecasting a margin in a range of 8.5% to 9.5%.

我們預測利潤率在 8.5% 至 9.5% 之間。

At Systems, we're estimating revenues of about $1.3 billion with a margin in a range of 12% to 13%.

我們預計 Systems 的營收約為 13 億美元，利潤率介於 12% 至 13% 之間。

At Industrial, we're expecting segment revenues of about $3.2 billion and margin to be in a range of about 4.5% to 5.5%.

在工業領域，我們預計部門收入約為 32 億美元，利潤率約為 4.5% 至 5.5%。

At eAviation, we expect revenues of $45 million and a segment loss of $70 million, reflecting our continued investment in sustainable aviation solutions.

在 eAviation，我們預計收入為 4500 萬美元，部門虧損為 7000 萬美元，反映出我們對永續航空解決方案的持續投資。

At Finance, we are forecasting segment profit of about $25 million.

在財務部門，我們預計該部門利潤約為 2500 萬美元。

Looking at slide 9, we're projecting about $160 million of corporate expense.

查看投影片 9，我們預計公司開支約為 1.6 億美元。

We're also projecting about $130 million of net interest expense for the manufacturing group, $165 million of LIFO inventory provision, $35 million of intangible asset amortization and $265 million of non-service pension income.

我們也預期製造集團的淨利息支出約為 1.3 億美元，後進先出庫存撥備為 1.65 億美元，無形資產攤銷為 3,500 萬美元，非服務退休金收入為 2.65 億美元。

We expect a full year effective tax rate of approximately 18%.

我們預計全年有效稅率約為 18%。

Turning to slide 10.

轉到投影片 10。

R&D is expected to be about $500 million, up from $491 million last year.

研發費用預計約 5 億美元，高於去年的 4.91 億美元。

We're estimating CapEx will be about $425 million, up from $364 million in 2024.

我們預計資本支出約 4.25 億美元，高於 2024 年的 3.64 億美元。

Our outlook assumes an average share count of about 184 million shares in 2025.

我們的展望假設 2025 年平均股數約為 1.84 億股。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

So operator, we can open the line for questions.

那麼接線員，我們可以開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Maybe, Scott, if you could start off with the Aviation guidance.

也許，史考特，如果你能從航空指南開始的話。

Can we talk about the 2025 deliveries?

我們能談談 2025 年的交付情況嗎？

I think it's implied around 190 deliveries versus 151 in 2024.

我認為這意味著 2024 年的交付量約為 190 輛，而 2024 年為 151 輛。

Can you talk about the quarterly cadence of jet deliveries as well as maybe turboprops just given the Q4 delivery number.

您能談談噴射機以及渦輪螺旋槳飛機的季度交付節奏嗎？

Well, I do think that the numbers obviously will ramp up through the course of the year, Sheila, we're recovering.

好吧，我確實認為這一數字顯然會在這一年中不斷增加，希拉，我們正在恢復。

I'd say the factories are getting back to towards full operation coming out of the strike.

我想說，工廠在罷工後正在恢復全面運作。

We will continue, as we have been for some time, expanding our production capacity as we go through the year, and that's largely driven by parts, which I think we're in fairly good shape, and ramping up the workforce.

我們將像一段時間以來一樣繼續擴大我們的生產能力，這主要是由零件驅動的，我認為我們的狀況相當良好，並增加了勞動力。

And again, I would say early signs coming out of the contract agreement, we're seeing a little more stability in the workforce, which is good, and that should enable us to see that ramp on the -- over the course of the year.

再說一次，我想說，合約協議中出現的早期跡像是，我們看到勞動力隊伍更加穩定，這是好事，這應該使我們能夠看到在這一年中的增長。

As we talked about in the last call, we're probably going to see also a significant progression in terms of margins as we go through the year.

正如我們在上次電話會議中談到的那樣，隨著這一年的發展，我們可能還會看到利潤率的顯著進步。

We will have a lot of deliveries here in the first quarter that would have been 2024 delivery.

我們將在第一季進行大量交付，預計 2024 年交付。

So obviously, they're priced to 2024 levels.

顯然，它們的定價是 2024 年的水準。

I would expect to see both volume and margin progress through the course of the year.

我預計今年銷量和利潤率都會進步。

Maybe if I could just follow up on the margin ramp.

也許我可以跟進利潤率的變化。

Can you talk about that bridge as we think about the 7.8% exit rate for Q4 for Aviation?

當我們考慮航空業第四季 7.8% 的退出率時，您能談談那座橋樑嗎？

How we think about that progressing and the contributors to that?

我們如何看待這項進展及其貢獻者？

Well, for sure, the 7.8 is an anomaly, right?

嗯，7.8 肯定是個異常，對吧？

I mean we had obviously unusually low volumes with the strike affecting 1/3 or more of the quarter.

我的意思是，我們的交易量明顯異常低，罷工影響了本季 1/3 或更多的時間。

And certainly, we took an inefficient current period expense with all of our overhead that wasn't burdened.

當然，我們的當期費用是低效率的，而我們所有的管理費用都沒有負擔。

We couldn't burden on volume.

我們不能增加數量的負擔。

So the 7.8 is certainly an anomaly.

所以7.8肯定是個異常現象。

I would expect as you think about us going through the year, it will see progression.

我希望當你回顧我們這一年的經歷時，你會看到進步。

If you look at the guide, obviously, we're probably 100 to 200 basis points probably below the guide and probably finishing up more like 100 to 200 basis above the guide as we progress through the year to get to that average.

如果你看一下指南，顯然，我們可能比指南低 100 到 200 個基點，並且隨著我們在這一年中達到平均水平，最終可能會比指南高出 100 到 200 個基點。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

With your retirement.

隨著你的退休。

Thanks for all your help over the years.

感謝您多年來的所有幫助。

Could you talk a little bit about the -- Scott, just -- or David, maybe you want to weigh in on just the -- your outlook for cash flow for the year, just given the earnings you're projecting, which is obviously a pretty nice snapback.

你能談談——斯科特，或者大衛，也許你想權衡一下——你對今年現金流的展望，考慮到你所預測的收益，這顯然是一個非常漂亮的後扣。

Just some of the moving parts, it seems maybe it was a little lower than we were estimating, but maybe we didn't have the inputs.

只是一些移動部件，看起來可能比我們估計的要低一些，但也許我們沒有輸入。

Well, again, it will progress through the year.

好吧，再說一遍，這一年都會取得進展。

The cash was obviously in Q4 wider than we normally have, and that's largely reflective of a lot of inventory that was at Aviation for jets that didn't deliver in Q4.

第四季度的現金顯然比我們通常擁有的要多，這在很大程度上反映了航空部門有大量庫存，用於在第四季度未交付的飛機。

So we'll see our normal relatively light cash in Q1, and that will grow over the course of the year.

因此，我們將在第一季看到正常的相對較少的現金，並且這筆現金將在全年中增長。

But I think we're pretty confident we'll be in that $800 -- $900 million range, but as is normal, will be more back-end loaded.

但我認為我們非常有信心將在 8 億至 9 億美元的範圍內，但像正常情況一樣，後端負載會更大。

Okay.

好的。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then maybe just, Scott, in general, I know Sheila talked about aviation.

然後，也許斯科特，總的來說，我知道希拉談到了航空。

And maybe you can just talk about -- I mean, you obviously had very strong bookings in refreshed product lines, obviously, drawing a lot of new interest.

也許你可以談論——我的意思是，你顯然對更新的產品線有非常強烈的預訂，顯然，吸引了許多新的興趣。

Maybe just if you want to highlight just what you're seeing on the demand environment, whether it's broad based or any particular markets that are stronger than others?

也許只是如果您想強調您在需求環境中所看到的情況，無論是基礎廣泛的市場還是比其他市場更強的特定市場？

Thanks, Peter.

謝謝，彼得。

Look, it's been pretty much across the product line.

看，它幾乎涵蓋了整個產品線。

I think we feel like we're in pretty good shape.

我認為我們感覺自己的狀態非常好。

The demand and order activity across every model has been has been good.

每種型號的需求和訂單活動都很好。

We saw some very strong demand, obviously, in that light jet with the Gen 3 announcements.

顯然，我們在發布第三代輕型飛機時看到了非常強勁的需求。

So that was very well received by customers.

因此深受顧客好評。

So we, in particular, had a very strong quarter in sort of that CJ3, CJ4 product line.

因此，我們的 CJ3、CJ4 產品線尤其表現強勁。

But again, it's been pretty strong in most of the portfolio.

但同樣，它在大多數投資組合中都相當強勁。

And I think we -- again, just given where customers are and the level of activity and the level of dialogue, I think we'll continue to see sustained demand through the course of the year.

我認為，再次考慮到客戶所在的位置以及活動水平和對話水平，我認為我們將在這一年中繼續看到持續的需求。

Again, we're probably looking at a 1:1 book-to-bill just because we think that's about where things all to land given the lead times of where most availabilities are for our different products.

再說一次，我們可能會考慮 1:1 的訂單到帳單，因為我們認為考慮到我們不同產品的大多數可用性的交貨時間，這就是所有東西落地的地方。

So 1:1 is what we're baking into our basic plan.

因此，1:1 是我們將其納入基本計劃的內容。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Frank, best of luck for your retirement.

法蘭克，祝你退休生活好運。

It's been quite right.

已經說得很對了。

Let's start off with Bell.

我們先從貝爾開始吧。

I was wondering if you could talk about what the risks and opportunities could be within that 2025 guidance, both for revenues and margin?

我想知道您能否談談 2025 年指導中的收入和利潤率可能存在哪些風險和機會？

Robert, I don't think there's a whole lot.

羅伯特，我不認為有很多。

I mean, this is all mostly backlog business.

我的意思是，這主要是積壓業務。

Obviously, the FLRAA program the ramp that we have baked into there is supported by what's in the sort of the pending '25 appropriations budgets and all the guidance we're receiving from the customers.

顯然，我們已經制定的 FLRAA 計劃得到了 25 年待決撥款預算以及我們從客戶那裡收到的所有指導的支持。

So I don't think there's risk around that.

所以我認為這不存在風險。

Most of the commercial business is well booked.

大部分商業業務都被預訂一空。

Certainly, sustainment around V-22 in H-1 is a very predictable business and again, largely booked.

當然，H-1 中 V-22 的保障是一項非常可預測的業務，而且大部分都被預訂了。

So I think as we work our way through the course of the year, we're in -- I don't think there's a lot of risk to the downside of where we are on the Bell numbers.

因此，我認為，隨著我們在這一年中的努力，我們處於 - 我認為貝爾數字的下行風險並不大。

Okay.

好的。

And then as a follow-up, I was wondering if you've seen any sign of demand changing at Aviation or industrial since we've had the US election?

作為後續行動，我想知道自美國大選以來，您是否看到航空或工業領域的需求發生任何變化的跡象？

No, we really didn't, Robert.

不，我們真的沒有，羅伯特。

It's actually kind of interesting.

這實際上很有趣。

I mean, normally, we see more of a slowdown a little bit before the election just because people don't like a lot of uncertainty, I think probably largely in part as a result of the size of the backlog and the stuff that aircraft that are available well out past that period, obviously, that we didn't see quite the drop in that we often see around presidential election.

我的意思是，通常情況下，我們會在選舉前看到更多的經濟放緩，只是因為人們不喜歡太多的不確定性，我認為這可能很大程度上是由於積壓的規模以及飛機所需要的東西造成的。

So I would say it was relatively steady, and we really haven't seen any change that I'm aware of in the demand environment in terms of the industrial side.

所以我想說這是相對穩定的，據我所知，就工業方面的需求環境而言，我們確實沒有看到任何變化。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Just back to the cash flow guidance, I guess, it would be lower than 2023 and the conversion from net income or the free cash margin, I think a little light of where you've talked about being over time.

回到現金流指導，我想，它會低於 2023 年，以及淨利潤或自由現金利潤率的轉換，我認為這對您所談論的隨著時間的推移會有所影響。

And I would have expected you'd be recovering some inventory from '24 that would help.

我預計你會從 24 年恢復一些庫存，這會有所幫助。

So is there a net negative working capital assumption still in '25?

那麼 25 年是否仍存在淨負營運資本假設？

Or what else are we all missing in that bridge?

或者我們在這座橋上還缺少什麼？

There's -- on the working capital side, there's a little bit of headwind associated with the timing of some military payments from an inventory standpoint.

從庫存的角度來看，在營運資金方面，一些軍事付款的時間存在一些阻力。

Obviously, we are -- we'll be ramping production through the year, as we talked about.

顯然，正如我們所說，我們將在今年提高產量。

So even though we had some higher inventory levels going into the end of '24 than we would have originally anticipated, we do need to have some higher inventory levels at the end of '25 for anticipated ramp.

因此，儘管我們到 24 年底的庫存水準比我們最初預期的要高，但我們確實需要在 25 年底達到預期的成長。

So you won't see a lot of inventory benefit.

所以你不會看到很多庫存效益。

There is some military payment timing, as I said, and then we are expecting higher capital expenditures relative to what you saw back in the '23 timeframe associated with just the growth of the business and in particular, kind of FLRAA prep activities at Bell.

正如我所說，有一些軍事付款時間，然後我們預計相對於您在 23 年時間範圍內看到的與業務增長相關的資本支出更高，特別是貝爾的 FLRAA 準備活動。

Okay.

好的。

That makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And then I just was hoping to get a little more detail on the Bell margin.

然後我只是希望獲得有關貝爾裕度的更多詳細資訊。

That's been quite resilient as you've ramped the early stages of FLRAA rapidly, which we had all anticipated would dilute that margin.

這是相當有彈性的，因為你已經迅速推進了 FLRAA 的早期階段，我們都預計這會稀釋這一利潤。

But so far, it hasn't.

但到目前為止，還沒有。

So -- maybe just walk us through the pieces that would bring the Bell margin down that much in 2025?

那麼，或許請向我們介紹一下導致 2025 年貝爾利潤率下降這麼多的因素？

Well, I think if you look at the Bell through 2024, we were helped by a little bit of improvement on some of the H-1 side.

好吧，我認為如果你看看 2024 年的貝爾，你會發現 H-1 的一些方面的一些改進對我們有所幫助。

Obviously, with the Nigerian deal that allowed us to maintain some more of that H-1 volume, which is better volume for us.

顯然，與尼日利亞的交易使我們能夠保持更多的 H-1 銷量，這對我們來說是更好的銷量。

But you're still at a macro level, not do have V-22 coming down, H-1 will start to come down.

但你仍然處於宏觀層面，V-22 不會下降，H-1 也會開始下降。

We did have strong aftermarket in 2024.

2024 年我們確實擁有強勁的售後市場。

I think we'll still have strong aftermarket in 2025, but it's going to be flatter from where it was in 2024.

我認為，到 2025 年，我們的售後市場仍然強勁，但與 2024 年相比會更加穩定。

So you really see a ton of the growth coming from the FLRAA ramp and commercial OEM deliveries.

因此，您確實可以看到 FLRAA 坡道和商業 OEM 交付帶來了大量的成長。

And as you know, commercial OEM deliveries tend to be dilutive to our margins.

如您所知，商業 OEM 交貨往往會稀釋我們的利潤。

They generate a lot of aftermarket, so long term, very good for the business.

它們產生了大量的售後市場，從長遠來看，對業務非常有利。

But the two real growth drivers in 2025 are that ramp on FLRAA and increased commercial deliveries, both of which are obviously dilutive.

但 2025 年的兩個真正的成長動力是 FLRAA 的增加和商業交付的增加，這兩者顯然都具有稀釋作用。

So as we've said, we've always expected that this margin will come down somewhat based on that mix, but that we're trying to target not having that be a dilution or problem at the EPS level.

因此，正如我們所說，我們一直預計這一利潤率會根據這種組合而有所下降，但我們正在努力避免在每股收益水準上出現稀釋或問題。

So I think we're still more or less in that range of holding the operating profit dollars.

因此，我認為我們仍然或多或少處於持有營業利潤美元的範圍內。

It's a little pressure year-over-year just because we sort of outperformed in 2024, and that kind of raises the bar on that 2025 target.

與去年同期相比，這有點壓力，因為我們在 2024 年表現出色，這提高了 2025 年目標的標準。

But I still think we're going to be in that range of being able to at least hold not dollars even as we grow the revenue on lower margin business.

但我仍然認為，即使我們在利潤率較低的業務上增加收入，我們至少仍將處於能夠不持有美元的範圍內。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

I'll add my congrats to Frank and Dave on the retirement and the new appointments, and thanks very much for working with us over the years, Frank.

我還要祝賀弗蘭克和戴夫的退休和新任命，並非常感謝弗蘭克多年來與我們一起工作。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Just to maybe come at Bell from the other side.

只是為了也許從另一邊來到貝爾。

It was strong performance through most of the year and certainly at the high end relative to the initial guide.

這一年大部分時間的表現都很強勁，而且相對於最初的指南來說肯定處於高端水平。

But I think the guide went up in Q3 to about 10.5% to 11%, I think, and came in slightly lower.

但我認為第三季的指導值上升至約 10.5% 至 11%，並且略有下降。

Was there something that changed in Q4 at Bell that led to that shortfall?

貝爾第四季是否發生了一些變化導致了這一缺口？

Well, I mean, we did have some program adjustments in Q4 that weren't favorable at Bell that largely had to do around FLRAA.

嗯，我的意思是，我們確實在第四季度進行了一些計劃調整，這些調整對貝爾來說並不有利，這主要是圍繞 FLRAA 進行的。

I mean, we did exercise the limited user test that is a fixed price option that was exercised and as we would expect, the fixed price options are not a great margin.

我的意思是，我們確實進行了有限用戶測試，即已執行的固定價格選項，正如我們所期望的那樣，固定價格選項的利潤率並不高。

So that did create some dilution, which when you do the program accounting did put a little bit of a drag in Q4 for us.

因此，這確實造成了一些稀釋，當你進行計劃會計時，這確實給我們第四季度帶來了一些拖累。

Okay.

好的。

And maybe to follow up, just at Aviation, the orders have been quite steady through the year.

也許跟進一下，就航空而言，今年的訂單相當穩定。

When we think about the composition of those orders in terms of net jets versus retail.

當我們從淨飛機與零售角度考慮這些訂單的組成時。

Is that a pretty steady composition?

這是一個相當穩定的構圖嗎？

Is it a pretty -- both in terms of how it's been trending versus itself and then how it's been trending versus the level of deliveries that we're seeing?

它很漂亮嗎——無論是相對於它本身的趨勢還是相對於我們所看到的交付水平而言它的趨勢如何？

Well, in general, it holds about flat, right?

嗯，總的來說，它保持平穩，對嗎？

Because as you guys know, we put these into the backlog based on sort of a 12 year forward, not just put orders in, generally speaking, every month.

因為正如你們所知，我們根據 12 年的遠期將這些訂單放入積壓訂單中，而不是一般來說每月只放入訂單。

It's usually fairly linear, but not always.

它通常是相當線性的，但並非總是如此。

And so there can be from quarter-to-quarter some variation based on how many deliveries we have to make in that quarter versus how many new exercises they happen to put.

因此，每個季度可能會存在一些差異，具體取決於我們在該季度必須交付的數量與他們碰巧進行的新作業的數量。

So it's not a perfectly linear process.

所以這不是一個完美的線性過程。

But it generates a little bit of variability from quarter-to-quarter.

但它會在每個季度之間產生一些變化。

But over the course of the year, it's been pretty stable.

但一年來，它的表現相當穩定。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

On R&D, I know you started off the year with a 550 number for R&D.

在研發方面，我知道你們年初的研發數字是 550。

It came at 490.

到了490。

I'm curious to the underrun there.

我對那裡的地下通道很好奇。

And this would be, I don't know, a few years in a row of declines on the R&D front, I imagine much of it from Bell.

我不知道，這將是研發方面連續幾年下滑的幾年，我想這很大程度來自於貝爾。

It looks like you're looking for a stable outlook for '25 to 500.

看來您正在尋找 25 至 500 的穩定前景。

Is that a good number going forward?

這是一個好的數字嗎？

And also what was the cause of the underrun in '24?

24年的欠載原因是什麼？

I think it's a good number going forward.

我認為這是一個很好的數字。

Look, I think the Bell dynamic with the end of the FARA program is certainly what drove a significant change in R&D on a year-over-year basis as that program was wrapped up.

看，我認為隨著 FARA 計劃的結束，貝爾的動態肯定是隨著該計劃的結束而推動研發同比發生重大變化的原因。

And so I think on a go-forward basis, we'll see more normalized R&D spending at Bell as well as across the rest of the businesses.

因此，我認為，從長遠來看，我們將看到貝爾以及其他企業的研發支出更加正常化。

So for sure, part of what drove the lower R&D in the year and drove some of the higher margin, frankly, at Bell was that we did see a step-down associated with the funding that we were having to put in net to the FARA program.

So for sure, part of what drove the lower R&D in the year and drove some of the higher margin, frankly, at Bell was that we did see a step-down associated with the funding that we were having to put in net to the FARA程式.

Okay.

好的。

And then relative to systems, I know the decisions on TAS and maybe RCV are or kind of sort of dictate how the year goes and maybe how '26 goes.

然後相對於系統，我知道關於 TAS 和 RCV 的決定在某種程度上決定了這一年的進展，也許 26 會如何進展。

How sensitive to this year are the outcomes on those programs for your outlook for systems top line of $1.3 billion.

這些計畫的結果對今年 13 億美元的系統營收前景有多敏感。

I don't think there's a huge sensitivity to it.

我不認為對此有很大的敏感性。

Obviously, the RCV program, we expect to be in the first half of 2025.

顯然，RCV 計劃預計會在 2025 年上半年推出。

FTUAS is probably more the second half later of the year.

FTUAS 可能會在今年下半年晚些時候進行。

And of course, those programs have to ramp up.

當然，這些計劃必須加強。

So in the early phases, they're not huge numbers. and particularly in the case of FTUAS, because it's late in the year, there's not a huge sensitivity to them.

所以在早期階段，它們的數量並不是很大。尤其是 FTUAS 的情況，因為現在已經是年底了，所以對它們並沒有太大的敏感度。

They're certainly much more important to us from a standpoint of what growth looks like as we go into '26 and beyond.

從我們進入 26 世紀及以後的成長來看，它們對我們來說當然重要得多。

So I guess I think of them as important milestones for us in the course of 2025, but not having a huge impact on revenue and margin in the year.

因此，我想我認為它們是我們 2025 年的重要里程碑，但不會對當年的收入和利潤率產生巨大影響。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Scott, Aviation revenues in the fourth quarter that came in a little bit light, I assume it looks like maybe missed you relative to what you're in 10 to 15 get deliveries.

Scott，第四季度的航空收入有點亮眼，我認為相對於 10 到 15 年的交付量，它看起來可能錯過了你。

What happened there?

那裡發生了什麼事？

Was that supply chain?

那是供應鏈嗎？

Or was that more on kind of your own in terms of getting the factory restarted post the strike?

或者說，在罷工後讓工廠重新啟動方面，這更多的是你自己的努力嗎？

Well, certainly, versus our original guidance for the year, yes, it was probably more in that mid-teens of aircraft, and that was largely driven by the fact that -- I mean we didn't -- we really didn't get the factory running again until really the beginning of October.

嗯，當然，與我們今年最初的指導相比，是的，這可能更多是在十幾架飛機上，這很大程度上是由以下事實驅動的——我的意思是我們沒有——我們真的沒有讓工廠重新運轉，直到十月初。

So -- I'm sorry, the beginning of November.

所以——對不起，十一月初。

So we really lost 1/3 of the quarter with having the workforce out.

因此，由於勞動力流失，我們確實損失了本季 1/3 的時間。

So -- as I said earlier, I think the good news is the folks are back.

所以——正如我之前所說，我認為好消息是人們回來了。

It's good to have a contract agreement in place for five years.

簽訂五年的合約協議是件好事。

And I think the workforce is pleased with the outcome.

我認為員工們對結果感到滿意。

We're fine with the outcome.

我們對結果很滿意。

Everybody is ramping up.

每個人都在加緊努力。

But we're really -- we did, for sure, lose 1/3 of the quarter with not having a production operation in place.

但我們確實——確實，由於沒有到位的生產運營，我們確實損失了本季度 1/3 的時間。

I was just looking at -- you took down the revenue forecast of 5.5%, and you were a little short of that.

我只是在看——你們降低了 5.5% 的收入預測，但你們離這個目標有點差。

I guess just following up there, how do you feel about the Aviation supply chain in terms of the ramp you're looking at in terms of deliveries for 2025?

我想接下來，您對航空供應鏈的 2025 年交付量成長有何看法？

Look, David, I think we feel good about it.

聽著，大衛，我想我們對此感覺很好。

I mean, that's where we're guiding where we are.

我的意思是，這就是我們的指導方向。

I would say that the third-party parts supply chain pieces coming into the factory are certainly in a much better position than they were throughout the course of 2024.

我想說的是，進入工廠的第三方零件供應鏈零件肯定比 2024 年全年的情況要好得多。

So that feels very good.

所以感覺非常好。

The other critical part is obviously stability of our workforce and retention.

另一個關鍵部分顯然是我們員工隊伍的穩定性和留任率。

And again, since the contract has been signed.

再說一遍，既然合約已經簽了。

We were very happy with the number of people that came back, even folks that have been with us for a very short period of time before the strike hung in there and came back once the agreement was put in place.

我們對回來的人數感到非常滿意，即使是那些在罷工前與我們待了很短一段時間的人也堅持了下來，並在協議落實後又回來了。

And the attrition numbers we're seeing are certainly improved from where they had been through the course of the rest of 2024.

我們看到的人員流失數字與 2024 年剩餘時間相比肯定有所改善。

So I think the momentum is in the right direction.

所以我認為勢頭是正確的。

Now we've got a lot of work in front of us here to get deliveries that were supposed to be in '24 done and ramp it up.

現在，我們面前有大量工作要做，以完成本應在 24 年完成的交付並加快交付速度。

But I'd say the early look in terms of aircraft coming out of the production lines, the tack times which clearly have to improve over the course of the year are operating as we would expect.

但我想說的是，從飛機從生產線出來的早期情況來看，在這一年中顯然必須改善的黏性時間正在按我們的預期運行。

And so I think we're, at this point, feeling pretty good that we're going to be able to make that ramp and deliver on the guide at the $6.1 billion.

因此，我認為我們目前感覺非常好，因為我們將能夠實現這一目標並實現 61 億美元的目標。

Okay.

好的。

And timing for SCEM certification, what are you looking at?

SCEM 認證的時機，您在看什麼？

And is the aviation guide sensitive at all to that timing?

航空指南對這個時間是否敏感？

Well, I mean, obviously, we're expecting it to be in the course of the year.

嗯，我的意思是，顯然，我們預計它會在今年內發生。

We've got to work this through the FAA.

我們必須透過美國聯邦航空局來解決這個問題。

If there's not an issue or a problem.

如果沒有問題的話。

It's going well.

進展順利。

But clearly, the actual certification is an FAA action.

但顯然，實際認證是美國聯邦航空總署的行動。

I think we feel great about the flight testing.

我認為我們對飛行測試感覺很好。

The program is going very well.

該計劃進展順利。

We do have a few aircraft in the year.

我們今年確實有幾架飛機。

So yes, it's part of our guide, but certainly not material.

所以，是的，它是我們指南的一部分，但肯定不是材料。

But we would certainly expect to get the first three aircraft delivered late this year.

但我們當然希望今年稍後交付前三架飛機。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Is there anything, Scott, you've seen with maybe the change in administration that could be an added little tailwind for private aviation.

斯科特，您是否看到了管理方面的變化可能會為私人航空帶來一點推動力。

So as an example, have you heard any discussion around some form of accelerated depreciation coming back or something like that, that historically has been a nice catalyst for private aviation?

舉個例子，您是否聽說過有關某種形式的加速折舊回來或類似的討論，這在歷史上一直是私人航空的良好催化劑？

I don't know specifically that the accelerated depreciation impact, but I would have to say, Ron, I think in general, as you know, most of our customers are small to mid-sized businesses, entrepreneurial, high net wealth, I mean, it's a broad range of customers, obviously.

我不知道加速折舊的具體影響，但我不得不說，羅恩，我認為總的來說，正如你所知，我們的大多數客戶都是中小型企業、企業家、高淨值財富，我的意思是，顯然，這是一個廣泛的客戶群。

But I think that in general, tax policy, regulatory policy is encouraging to them and therefore, they feel good about their businesses.

但我認為總的來說，稅收政策、監管政策對他們來說是鼓勵的，因此，他們對自己的業務感覺良好。

Their businesses are likely to be successful and growing.

他們的企業很可能會成功並不斷發展。

And that certainly is nothing but helpful in terms of how they get their head around CapEx expenditures like new aircraft.

這對於他們如何處理新飛機等資本支出支出來說毫無疑問是有幫助的。

So I would say, I wouldn't point out one particular item.

所以我想說，我不會指出某一特定項目。

And it's -- obviously, it's quite early here and we don't know how all the tax stuff is going to work its way out.

顯然，現在還為時過早，我們不知道所有稅收問題將如何解決。

But I think in general, just the nature of our kinds of customers that they think the outlook for business is good, and that's good for the prospects of private aviation.

但我認為總的來說，我們這類客戶的本質是他們認為業務前景良好，這對私人航空的前景有利。

Yes.

是的。

That makes a ton of sense.

這很有道理。

And if I can, a follow-up but change in direction is just a little bit.

如果可以的話，後續行動但方向上的改變只是一點點。

A while ago, right, you guys did Scorpion and I always thought that was kind of cool.

不久前，你們拍了《蝎子》，我一直覺得那很酷。

And the DoD at the time didn't seem to have a big appetite for that.

當時的國防部似乎對此沒有太大興趣。

It does seem, however, there does maybe potentially seem to be a change in more -- maybe a push towards more commercial terms contracting, contractors taking more risk.

然而，似乎確實可能會發生更多變化——也許會推動簽訂更多商業條款合同，承包商承擔更多風險。

Do you see any opportunities for you guys or maybe like a Scorpion 2.0 parenthetically, something like that with maybe the changing environment with potentially more commercial-type contracting?

你們是否看到了你們的任何機會，或者可能像 Scorpion 2.0 附帶的那樣，隨著環境的變化，可能會有更多商業類型的合約？

Well, I don't know about a specific around Scorpion, Ron.

嗯，我不知道蝎子的具體情況，羅恩。

I will -- I would say that in this administration four years ago, eight years ago to four years ago, however you want to think about it, there was certainly a mindset that we have to find ways to go faster, right.

我會說，四年前、八年前、四年前的這屆政府，無論你怎麼想，肯定有一種心態，那就是我們必須找到更快的方法，對吧。

And so our acquisition system, this was the OTAs and the MTAs and the Army's of things like Futures Command, that frankly, helped to accelerate and drive a lot of the things that we're working on today.

因此，我們的採購系統，即 OTA 和 MTA 以及陸軍的未來司令部等系統，坦白說，這有助於加速和推動我們今天正在進行的許多工作。

So again, it's very early, obviously.

再說一次，顯然現在還很早。

Everybody talks about acquisition reform, and I wouldn't say I expect huge things in terms of real change to policy, but expectations that what's good for the war fighter or good for the taxpayer is to figure out how to accelerate programs.

每個人都在談論採購改革，我不會說我期望政策會發生真正的變化，但期望對戰士或納稅人有利的是找出如何加速專案。

And so again, it's early.

再說一次，現在還早。

We don't have any data yet, but I'm certainly hopeful that the incoming administration and within the building is interested in figuring out how to accelerate things.

我們還沒有任何數據，但我當然希望即將上任的政府和大樓內有興趣找出如何加快進程。

Commerciality is certainly a part of that.

商業性當然是其中的一部分。

But just frankly, how do you make the process run faster and get things out or better quicker.

但坦白說，如何使流程運行得更快並更快地完成任務或更好。

And I think we would clearly be a beneficiary of that.

我認為我們顯然會成為受益者。

We have a bunch of great programs that I think the war fighter side of the military, we'd love to see them get out to the hands in the actual combating commands.

我們有很多很棒的項目，我認為軍隊的作戰人員方面，我們很高興看到它們在實際的戰鬥指揮中得到運用。

And hopefully, we'll see some of that happen.

希望我們能看到其中一些發生。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Just maybe two questions on the Aviation margin.

也許只是關於航空利潤的兩個問題。

You mentioned still having some impact of the disrupted '24 deliveries, so the '25.

您提到 24 年交付中斷仍然會產生一些影響，因此 25 年也會產生一些影響。

Just was hoping you could give us some sense of how much of that excess cost you're absorbing in that 12% to 13% margin guide?

只是希望您能讓我們了解您在 12% 至 13% 的利潤率指引中吸收了多少超額成本？

Well, we're not.

嗯，我們不是。

It was a big driver, Gavin, of the Q4 number because we did take an period expense, a lot of overhead, which otherwise would have been into our sort of base cost spread across aircraft deliveries.

加文，這是第四季度數字的一個重要推動因素，因為我們確實承擔了期間費用，大量管理費用，否則這些費用將計入我們在飛機交付中分攤的基本成本。

And given that we were light, we did take a pretty significant hit on period expense.

考慮到我們的規模很輕，我們的期間費用確實受到了相當大的打擊。

But as we think about the go-forward number, we expect and have built a plan around margin rates and normal volumes of aircraft delivery.

但當我們考慮未來的數字時，我們預計並已經圍繞保證金率和正常的飛機交付量製定了計劃。

So I wouldn't expect to see any significant period expensing associated back with the lower volumes in 2024.

因此，我預計 2024 年銷售下降不會帶來任何重大期間費用。

And then anything that you can give us on what you're expecting on net price and performance for '25?

那麼您能告訴我們您對 25 年淨價和性能的期望嗎？

No.

不。

Look, I mean, as I said, we certainly expect performance and factory efficiencies to be up significantly versus 2024.

看，我的意思是，正如我所說，我們當然預計性能和工廠效率將比 2024 年顯著提高。

And that's a driver of a lot of where we think we'll end up with the margin that we have guided.

這是我們認為最終會達到我們所指導的利潤率的許多因素的驅動因素。

In terms of price, look, price is still is still good in the industry, but there's also inflation out there.

從價格方面看，行業內的價格還是不錯的，但是也存在通貨膨脹。

So as we've talked about before, I don't expect a huge spread on the net of that.

正如我們之前討論過的，我預計這種情況不會在網路上傳播得那麼廣。

I think most of our performance improvement, most of our margin improvement getting back to where we should be here in 2025 as a result of much better factory performance.

我認為我們的大部分業績改善、大部分利潤率改善都會在 2025 年回到我們應該達到的水平，這是由於工廠業績好得多。

Pete Skibitski, Alembic Global.

Pete Skibitski，Alembic Global。

Congrats, Frank.

恭喜，弗蘭克。

Guys, this longer fiscal '25 continuing resolution, is that impacting your military programs at all?

夥計們，這個更長的 25 財年持續決議是否會影響你們的軍事計劃？

Pete, I have not seen it have a big impact.

皮特，我還沒有看到它有很大的影響。

I mean, look, we hate the uncertainty of it.

我的意思是，看，我們討厭它的不確定性。

And I think our certainly, our customer hates it because they're constantly in -- I mean, they're trying to now do 2026 budgets when they haven't allowed to finalize 2025.

我認為我們的客戶當然討厭它，因為他們一直在 - 我的意思是，他們現在試圖在不允許最終確定 2025 年的情況下制定 2026 年預算。

But I think the expectations, the customer appears to be executing to what they expect the 2025 budget to be and has sort of been appropriated and sitting on the shelf waiting for the final action.

但我認為客戶的期望似乎正在執行他們期望的 2025 年預算，並且已經被撥款並坐在架子上等待最終行動。

So it's very disruptive.

所以這是非常具破壞性的。

I think it's a horrible process, obviously, and it takes a lot of time and energy away from the customer can be focused on other things.

顯然，我認為這是一個可怕的過程，它需要客戶花費大量時間和精力來專注於其他事情。

But the good news is most of our programs are already funded programs.

但好消息是我們大多數的計畫已經是資助計畫。

They're not new starts.

他們不是新的開始。

There are some things, as you get further into the year, that will become new starts, but we certainly expect that the CR will be resolved have an actual budget before that becomes a problem.

隨著今年的深入，有些事情將成為新的開始，但我們當然希望 CR 能夠在成為問題之前得到實際預算的解決。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Just one last one for me.

給我的只是最後一張。

Across the whole company, in terms of the new administration, is there anything on your radar in terms of new regulations or policies or the tariff issue that could be either positive or negative for the business that's on your radar?

在整個公司範圍內，就新政府而言，您關注的新法規或政策或關稅問題方面是否有任何可能對您關注的業務有利或不利的事情？

I think maybe one thing in terms of if we get tariffs towards Canada.

我認為，如果我們對加拿大徵收關稅，也許是一回事。

Does that impact Bell commercial at all?

這會影響貝爾的商業嗎？

Just anything on your radar that you can share with us?

您有什麼可以與我們分享的嗎？

Look, Peter.

看，彼得。

I think on the positive side, again, we talked about just sort of what our expectations are for the overall business climate, less regulation, probably a better tax resolution and maybe otherwise could have happened.

我認為從積極的一面來看，我們再次討論了我們對整體商業環境的期望，減少監管，可能有更好的稅收解決方案，也許其他情況也可能發生。

So I think from an overall business environment standpoint, those -- that's very positive on the tax front, on the regulatory front, on the military front, as I said, I think we have an administration coming in that has in the past been pro, how do we figure out how to accelerate, how do we go faster, which would be, again, net good for us.

所以我認為，從整體商業環境的角度來看，這些——在稅收方面、監管方面、軍事方面都是非常積極的，正如我所說，我認為我們的政府在過去一直是支持的，我們如何弄清楚如何加速，如何走得更快，對我們來說又是有利的。

Look, the tariff is very much a wildcard.

瞧，關稅在很大程度上是一個通配符。

I mean, we don't know the specifics.

我的意思是，我們不知道具體情況。

Clearly, we have operations in Mexico.

顯然，我們在墨西哥有業務。

We have, as you noted, a pretty significant operation in Canada, particularly on the Bell commercial side, a lot of the value of the dollars are things that go over from the US into Canada and then back assume those don't get hit.

正如您所指出的，我們在加拿大有相當重要的業務，特別是在貝爾商業方面，美元的許多價值都是從美國轉移到加拿大，然後假設這些沒有受到打擊。

But we do have some big important suppliers like Pratt Canada that sell a lot of engines to us in both rotor and fixed wing, and we do have our Bell Mirabel operations on the commercial side of Bell.

但我們確實有一些重要的大型供應商，例如普拉特加拿大公司，他們向我們出售大量旋翼和固定翼發動機，而且我們確實在貝爾的商業方面擁有貝爾米拉貝爾業務。

So -- look, it's an unknown.

所以——看，這是未知數。

And so we're not really positioned one way on the other thing.

因此，我們在另一件事上並沒有真正的定位。

We've got to see how this plays out.

我們必須看看事情會如何發展。

And Again, I think a lot of this is around negotiations and working on how do you deal with the free trade agreements on a go-forward basis.

再說一次，我認為這很大程度上是圍繞著談判以及如何在未來的基礎上處理自由貿易協定而展開的。

So we're just going to kind of hang in there and see how it plays out.

所以我們只能堅持下去，看看結果如何。

And ladies and gentlemen, that will bring us to the conclusion of today's Textron Q4 2024 earnings release call.

女士們、先生們，今天的德事隆 2024 年第四季財報電話會議即將結束。

We'd like to thank you all so much for joining us today and wish you all a great.

我們非常感謝大家今天加入我們，並祝福大家一切順利。

Remainder of your day.

今天剩下的時間。

Just a reminder, today's call will be available for replay beginning later today by calling 1 800-839-5125 or 402-220-1502.

請注意，從今天晚些時候開始，您可以撥打 1 800-839-5125 或 402-220-1502 重播今天的電話會議。

Again, thanks for joining us, everyone.

再次感謝大家加入我們。

We wish you all a great day.

我們祝福大家有個愉快的一天。

Goodbye.

再見。