達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Textron third-quarter 2024 earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。請繼續。

Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today. These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release. On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer. Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website. Revenues in the quarter were $3.4 billion, up from $3.3 billion in last year's third quarter. During this year's third quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.40 per share compared to $1.49 per share in last year's third quarter. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $147 million in the quarter compared to $205 million in the third quarter of 2023.

謝謝，凱利，大家早安。在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。本季營收為 34 億美元，高於去年第三季的 33 億美元。今年第三季度，調整後的持續經營收入為每股 1.40 美元，而去年第三季為每股 1.49 美元。本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總額為 1.47 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 2.05 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone. During the quarter, aviation experienced a strike upon the expiration of its existing labor agreement with the IAM. Work stoppage caused disruption towards aircraft production and service in our Wichita facilities. On October 20, the IAM ratified a new 5-year contract, ending a 4-week strike. As employees return to work and production and delivery activities recover, resulting disruptions will impact our 2024 financial results. In the quarter, Aviation delivered 41 jets, up from 39 last year, and 25 commercial turboprops, down from 38 in last year's third quarter. Aftermarket revenues grew 5% for the third quarter versus 2023, and our year-to-date aftermarket revenues were up 8% as compared to prior year. Aviation continues to see strong demand in the quarter, booking over $1 billion in new orders. Backlog grew $162 million, ending the third quarter at $7.6 billion. During the quarter, Aviation delivered the 400th Cessna Citation Latitude. Latitude has been the best-selling aircraft in the midsized jet segment since it was introduced into service in 2015. At NBAA this week, Aviation also announced the Gen 3 updates of the Citation M2, CJ3 and CJ4, reflecting continued investments in this product portfolio. At Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million over last year, and segment profit was $98 million, up $21 million as compared to the third quarter last year. During the quarter, the U.S. Army announced approval of Milestone B for the FLRAA program. This significant milestone established as FLRAA as a program of record and transition the program to the engineering and manufacturing development phase. This phase includes continued digital modeling, detailed hardware and software design and fabrication of hardware as Bell proceeds to critical design review and the first flight planned for 2026. As a result of Milestone B and the subsequent EMD award, Bell's backlog grew by $2.3 billion in the quarter, now totaling $6.5 billion. On the commercial side, Bell saw increased order activity in the quarter. Bell delivered 44 helicopters, up from 23 in last year's third quarter. Textron Systems revenues and profits were slightly lower compared to last year. In the quarter, Systems completed 2 major milestones in the Army's FTUAS program, a modular open systems approach conformance evaluation and a prototype aircraft flight demonstration. The team will now proceed to option 4 of the competitor program, which includes delivery of a production representative aircraft system for Army testing evaluation. Systems expanded its U.S. Navy Aerosonde operations with awards for 2 new land-based sites and 3 new maritime sites. Also in the quarter, Systems delivered 2 prototype Ripsaw and 3 robotic vehicles to the U.S. Army for testing as part of Phase 1 of the Robotic Combat Vehicle program. The Army is expected to down select Phase 2 for production representative prototype in mid-2025. Moving to Industrial, the segment experienced lower revenues and operating profit in the quarter, driven by continuing softness in specialized vehicles end markets. Specialized vehicles has continued to take cost action to align with lower production volumes. Moving to eAviation, the Nuuva 300 continued integration testing, including a full system power on and flight simulation run conducted this quarter. The team is now focused on preparations for the aircraft's first hover flight, which is expected in Q4 of this year. Also during the quarter, the Nexus eVTOL program continued to progress on the wing and (inaudible) assemblies and outfitting of the ground control station, preparation for the start of flight testing, which is expected to begin in 2025. Finally, as we announced yesterday, we are making some important executive changes at Textron. Our CFO, Frank Connor, has notified us that he intends to retire from the company on February 28, 2025. Dave Rosenberg, our current Vice President in Investor Relations, has been elected as our new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, succeeding Frank. Dave has more than 24 years of experience in the aviation industry and has served in a series of finance and strategy positions at Textron Aviation, Beechcraft and its predecessor companies. In addition, Scott [Hegstrom] has been elected Vice President of Investor Relations, replacing Dave. Both elections are effective March 1, 2025. I want to thank Frank for his outstanding leadership and significant contributions to Textron during [15] years and to congratulate Dave and Scott on the new appointments.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。本季度，航空業因與 IAM 的現有勞工協議到期而經歷了罷工。停工導致我們威奇托工廠的飛機生產和服務中斷。 10 月 20 日，IAM 批准了一份新的 5 年期合同，結束了為期 4 週的罷工。隨著員工重返工作崗位以及生產和交付活動的恢復，由此造成的中斷將影響我們 2024 年的財務表現。本季度，航空交付了 41 架噴射機，高於去年的 39 架，交付了 25 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，低於去年第三季度的 38 架。與 2023 年相比，第三季售後市場收入成長了 5%，年初至今的售後市場收入比上一年增長了 8%。本季航空業需求持續強勁，新訂單數量超過 10 億美元。 Backlog 成長了 1.62 億美元，第三季末達到 76 億美元。本季度，航空交付了第 400 架塞斯納獎狀緯度飛機。自2015 年投入使用以來，Latitude 一直是中型噴射機領域最暢銷的飛機。投資。貝爾的營收為 9.29 億美元，比去年第三季增加 1.75 億美元，部門利潤為 9,800 萬美元，比去年第三季增加 2,100 萬美元。本季度，美國陸軍宣布批准 FLRAA 計畫的里程碑 B。這一重要的里程碑將 FLRAA 確立為記錄計劃，並將該計劃過渡到工程和製造開發階段。這一階段包括持續的數位建模、詳細的硬體和軟體設計以及硬體製造，貝爾將進行關鍵設計審查併計劃於2026 年進行首次飛行。年增加了23 億美元。在商業方面，貝爾看到本季的訂單活動增加。貝爾交付了 44 架直升機，高於去年第三季的 23 架。德事隆系統公司的營收和利潤與去年相比略有下降。本季度，Systems 完成了陸軍 FTUAS 計畫的兩個主要里程碑：模組化開放系統方法一致性評估和原型飛行演示。該團隊現在將繼續實施競爭對手計畫的選項 4，其中包括交付用於陸軍測試評估的生產代表性飛機系統。 Systems 擴大了其美國海軍航空探空儀業務，授予 2 個新的陸基站點和 3 個新的海上站點。同樣在本季度，Systems 向美國陸軍交付了 2 輛 Ripsaw 原型車和 3 輛機器人車輛進行測試，作為機器人戰車計畫第一階段的一部分。陸軍預計將在 2025 年中期選擇第二階段生產代表性原型。轉向工業領域，由於專用車輛終端市場持續疲軟，該部門本季的營收和營業利潤下降。專用車輛繼續採取成本行動以適應產量下降。轉向 eAviation，Nuuva 300 繼續進行整合測試，包括本季進行的完整系統開機和飛行模擬運行。該團隊目前正專注於飛機首次懸停飛行的準備工作，預計今年第四季進行。同樣在本季度，Nexus eVTOL 計畫在機翼以及（聽不清楚）地面控制站的組裝和裝備方面繼續取得進展，為預計將於 2025 年開始的飛行測試做準備。 ，我們正在德事隆進行一些重要的高階主管變動。我們的財務長 Frank Connor 已通知我們，他打算於 2025 年 2 月 28 日從公司退休。 。 Dave 在航空業擁有超過 24 年的經驗，曾在德事隆航空、Beechcraft 及其前身公司擔任一系列財務和策略職位。此外，史考特 [Hegstrom] 被選為投資者關係副總裁，接替戴夫。兩次選舉均於 2025 年 3 月 1 日生效。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone. Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation. In the third quarter of 2024, delayed aircraft deliveries along with unfavorable performance resulting from the IAM strike lowered Textron Aviation's revenues by about $50 million and segment profit by around $30 million. Revenue at Textron Aviation of $1.3 billion were essentially flat with the third quarter of 2023, with higher pricing of $36 million, mostly offset by lower volume and mix of $35 million. Segment profit was $128 million in the third quarter down $32 million from a year ago, largely due to lower volume and mix of $29 million. Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.6 billion, up $162 million from the second quarter. Moving to Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million from last year, largely reflecting higher volume and mix of $148 million. Volume and mix included higher military volume of $81 million, primarily related to the FLRAA program, and higher commercial volume and mix of $67 million, reflecting an increase in deliveries. Segment profit of $98 million was up $21 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to a favorable impact from performance of $17 million and favorable pricing net of inflation of $12 million. Backlog segment ended the quarter at $6.5 billion. At Textron Systems, revenues were $301 million, down $8 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to lower volume. Segment profit of $39 million was down $2 million from a year ago. Backlog in this segment ended the quarter at $1.9 billion. Industrial revenues were $840 million, down $82 million from last year's third quarter, mainly due to lower volume and mix of $86 million, principally in the Specialized Vehicles product line. Segment profit of $32 million was down $19 million from the third quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix. Textron eAviation segment revenues were $6 million and segment loss was $18 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared with a segment loss of $19 million in the third quarter of 2023. Finance segment revenues were $12 million and profit was $5 million. Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $20 million. Net interest expense from the manufacturing group was $22 million. LIFO inventory provision was $49 million. Intangible asset amortization was $9 million and the non-service components of pension and postretirement income of $66 million. In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.4 million shares, returning $215 million in cash to shareholders. Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately 10.1 million shares, returning $890 million in cash to shareholders. Textron is adjusting its full-year outlook to include the expected impact of the Aviation strike on its financial results. Textron now expects 2024 adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations to be in a range of $5.40 to $5.60 per share, down from the previous outlook of $6.20 to $6.40 per share. Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is now expected to be in the range of $650 million to $750 million as compared to its previous outlook of $900 million to $1 billion, with planned pension contributions of about $50 million. Looking to Aviation, we now expect total year revenue of about $5.5 billion with an expected segment margin of around 11%. At Bell, while total year revenue outlook is unchanged, we expect an improved segment margin in the range of 10.5% to 11%. At Systems, the revenue outlook is unchanged with a segment margin estimated at the top end or slightly above our original guidance range of 11% to 12%. Looking to Industrial, we now expect revenues to be about $3.5 billion with an expected segment margin of around 4%. At eAviation, we now expect revenue to be about $35 million, with segment margin unchanged at a loss of around $75 million. At Finance, we now expect revenue to be about $50 million with segment margin of around $30 million. Below segment profit, we now expect corporate expenses to be around $135 million, interest expense to be about $85 million and a tax rate of 17.5%.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。 2024 年第三季度，飛機交付延遲以及 IAM 罷工導致的業績不佳導致德事隆航空收入減少約 5,000 萬美元，部門利潤減少約 3,000 萬美元。德事隆航空的營收為 13 億美元，與 2023 年第三季基本持平，定價上漲 3,600 萬美元，但大部分被銷量下降和 3,500 萬美元的組合所抵消。第三季該部門利潤為 1.28 億美元，比去年同期減少 3,200 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和組合減少 2,900 萬美元。截至本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達到 76 億美元，比第二季增加 1.62 億美元。貝爾的收入為 9.29 億美元，比去年增加 1.75 億美元，主要反映了銷量的增加和 1.48 億美元的組合。數量和組合包括軍用數量增加至 8,100 萬美元，主要與 FLRAA 計劃相關，商業數量和組合增加至 6,700 萬美元，反映了交付量的增加。部門利潤為 9,800 萬美元，比去年第三季增加了 2,100 萬美元，這主要是由於 1,700 萬美元的業績和扣除通貨膨脹後的有利定價（1,200 萬美元）的有利影響。本季末，積壓訂單部分達 65 億美元。德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.01 億美元，比去年第三季減少 800 萬美元，主要是由於銷量下降。部門利潤為 3,900 萬美元，比去年同期減少 200 萬美元。本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 19 億美元。工業收入為 8.4 億美元，比去年第三季減少 8,200 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和組合減少 8,600 萬美元，主要是專用車輛產品線。該部門利潤為 3,200 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季減少 1,900 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和產品組合下降。 2024 年第三季德事隆 eAviation 部門營收為 600 萬美元，部門虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季部門虧損為 1,900 萬美元。公司支出低於部門利潤，為 2000 萬美元。製造集團的淨利息支出為 2,200 萬美元。後進先出庫存撥備為 4,900 萬美元。無形資產攤銷為 900 萬美元，退休金和退休後收入的非服務部分為 6,600 萬美元。本季度，我們回購了約 240 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.15 億美元現金。今年迄今，我們已回購約 1,010 萬股股票，向股東返還 8.9 億美元現金。德事隆正在調整其全年展望，以納入航空罷工對其財務表現的預期影響。德事隆目前預計，2024 年持續經營業務調整後每股收益將在每股 5.40 美元至 5.60 美元之間，低於先前每股 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元的預期。目前，退休金繳款前的製造業現金流預計在 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元之間，而先前的預期為 9 億美元至 10 億美元，計畫退休金繳款約為 5,000 萬美元。展望航空業，我們目前預計年總收入約 55 億美元，預計分部利潤率約為 11%。在貝爾，雖然全年總收入前景保持不變，但我們預計部門利潤率將提高在 10.5% 至 11% 之間。 Systems 的收入前景保持不變，預計分部利潤率處於上限或略高於我們最初的指引範圍 11% 至 12%。展望工業領域，我們目前預計營收約 35 億美元，預計細分市場利潤率約為 4%。在 eAviation，我們現在預計收入約為 3500 萬美元，部門利潤率保持不變，虧損約為 7500 萬美元。在財務部門，我們現在預計收入約為 5,000 萬美元，部門利潤率約為 3,000 萬美元。低於部門利潤，我們現在預計公司費用約為 1.35 億美元，利息費用約為 8,500 萬美元，稅率為 17.5%。

That concludes our prepared remarks. So operator, we can open line for questions.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。那麼接線員，我們可以開通提問熱線。

(Operator Instructions) David Strauss, Barclays.

（操作員說明）David Strauss，巴克萊銀行。

Congrats, Frank and Dave. Scott, could you just maybe touch on how things are going at [Aviation] in terms of restarting or -- restarting production and kind of what have you assumed in the updated forecast for Aviation? I think you had $5.5 billion in revenue in terms of jet deliveries.

恭喜法蘭克和戴夫。斯科特，您能否談談[航空]在重新啟動或重新啟動生產方面的進展情況以及您在最新的航空預測中的假設？我認為你們在飛機交付方面的收入為 55 億美元。

Sure, David. So look, I mean, obviously, we got the ratification last weekend, which was very important under the terms of the contract. The workforce has up to 5 days to come back in. So we are starting to ramp and get things back in place. I think I talked to Ron yesterday, we probably had about 60% of the workforce that was back in yesterday. We expect that to continue to ramp and clearly expect to be at full representation on Monday. So when we factor in the numbers, we kind of think about that. That's why the [$0.5 billion] revenue drop. It's not really 4 weeks, it's more like a 5-week strike, and then we've got to get all the ramping and get the line back up and running here as we get in the fourth quarter. But I guess I'd say, David, the good news is that's what we're focused on, right? We have a 5-year deal in place that's good for employees. It's good for us. Our total focus right now is getting things ramped up. We've spent obviously a lot of time here over the last 4 or 5 weeks, continuing to work with our supply chain to make sure that parts are coming in and suppliers who have been late to PO are getting back to current. So our complete focus right now is everybody back in the door and getting the factory up and running and hopefully more efficient than it's been over the past few years as we get better part flow.

當然，大衛。所以，我的意思是，顯然，我們在上週末獲得了批准，這根據合約條款非常重要。員工最多有 5 天的時間返回工作崗位 因此，我們正在開始加強力，讓一切恢復原狀。我想我昨天和羅恩談過，昨天我們可能有大約 60% 的員工回來了。我們預計這一人數將繼續增加，並且顯然預計週一將達到全面代表人數。因此，當我們考慮這些數字時，我們會考慮這一點。這就是 [5 億美元] 收入下降的原因。這並不是真正的 4 週，而更像是 5 週的罷工，然後我們必須全力以赴，讓生產線恢復正常，並在第四季度開始運作。但我想我會說，大衛，好消息是這就是我們關注的重點，對嗎？我們簽訂了一項對員工有利的五年協議。這對我們有好處。我們現在的全部重點是加快工作進度。過去 4 或 5 週，我們顯然在這裡花了很多時間，繼續與我們的供應鏈合作，以確保零件及時送達，以及遲到採購訂單的供應商恢復正常狀態。因此，我們現在的全部重點是每個人都回到門口，讓工廠啟動並運行，並希望隨著我們獲得更好的零件流程而比過去幾年更加高效。

Okay. And Frank, in terms of the lower forecast for free cash flow for the year, it looks like maybe you're losing about $125 million from lower earnings. CapEx, I think, is a little bit lower than you had previously forecasted. What accounts for -- it looks like $200 million of -- the additional $200 million hit on the free cash flow side.

好的。弗蘭克，就今年自由現金流的較低預測而言，看起來您可能會因收益下降而損失約 1.25 億美元。我認為資本支出比您之前的預測略低一些。自由現金流方面額外受到 2 億美元的打擊（看起來有 2 億美元）是由什麼造成的。

Yes, we're going to have some inventory headwinds associated with kind of the slower kind of ramp-up here and the impact of the production. As Scott said, it's kind of a 5-week impact. We want to get healthy from a supply chain standpoint. So we certainly looked at kind of mitigating the cash impact of the strike, but we also want to make sure that we were healthy as we come out of this. So that's really the impact. And we'll then have that inventory, obviously, to burn through and sell in '25.

是的，我們將面臨一些與較慢的成長和生產影響相關的庫存阻力。正如斯科特所說，這是一個為期 5 週的影響。從供應鏈的角度來看，我們希望保持健康。因此，我們當然會考慮減輕罷工對現金的影響，但我們也想確保我們在走出困境時保持健康。這才是真正的影響。顯然，我們將擁有這些庫存，並在 25 年燒完並出售。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Congratulations, Frank, of course. So just going back to the EPS cut of $0.80, I think Industrial is about $0.30, that's a headwind, but Bell is at $0.10 offset. How do we think about, I guess, Aviation into 2024 exiting Q4 and then also Industrial, just given a 4% margin to exit the year?

當然，恭喜你，弗蘭克。因此，回到 0.80 美元的 EPS 削減，我認為工業約為 0.30 美元，這是一個逆風，但貝爾的抵消額為 0.10 美元。我想，我們如何看待 2024 年退出第四季的航空業，然後是工業業，只給出 4% 的利潤率退出這一年？

On the Industrial front, Sheila, we've been -- we've seen softness all year. We've talked about that each quarter. So I think as we've revised the guidance, beyond just giving color, we're trying to give you guys some specific to each one of the segments. And so I think our expectation right now is that those softnesses in that end market are going to continue. As we've talked about in previous quarters, we're just cutting way back on production volume. We don't want to put stuff out in the channel. I don't think dealers want things in the channel until we get better perspective and view on where things are going in terms of interest rates and their end market. So I think this was just -- we're just kind of firming up our view on the total guide on that segment. The bigger issue for us, obviously, is we've got to get the Aviation business ramp back up again here, as Frank talked about. We're -- given the delays in some of these deliveries, we're going to certainly carry out more inventory through the end of the year of work in process than we would normally have coming out of the Q4. But I guess, important to note, these sales aren't lost, right? I mean these are pushed, and we're going to ultimately deliver these aircraft. So as we think about 2025, we clearly expect we're going to see revenue progression over what our original 2024 guide was. We're continuing to ramp. And I think now with contract behind us, we're optimistic about seeing more stability in the workforce, clearly, a better position on supplier parts. And it's tough to recover all that in one quarter, but I think we'll have good momentum as we go into 2025.

在工業方面，希拉，我們一整年都看到了疲軟。我們每季都會討論這個問題。因此，我認為，在我們修改指南時，除了提供顏色之外，我們還試圖為大家提供一些針對每個細分市場的具體資訊。因此，我認為我們現在的預期是，終端市場的疲軟狀況將持續下去。正如我們在前幾個季度談到的那樣，我們只是大幅削減產量。我們不想把東西放到頻道裡。我認為，在我們對利率及其最終市場的發展有更好的了解和看法之前，經銷商不會希望通路中出現任何東西。所以我認為這只是——我們只是堅定了我們對該部分總體指南的看法。顯然，對我們來說更大的問題是我們必須讓航空業務再次恢復成長，正如弗蘭克所說。考慮到其中一些交付的延遲，我們肯定會在今年年底進行在製品庫存比第四季度正常情況更多的庫存。但我想，值得注意的是，這些銷售並沒有損失，對吧？我的意思是這些都是被推動的，我們最終將交付這些飛機。因此，當我們考慮 2025 年時，我們顯然預計收入將比我們最初的 2024 年指南有所增長。我們正在繼續加速。我認為現在合約已經簽訂，我們樂觀地看到勞動力更加穩定，顯然，供應商零件的地位也更好。在一個季度內恢復所有這些是很困難的，但我認為進入 2025 年我們將擁有良好的勢頭。

And just on the contract, how do we think about the headwind in 2025 as we factor in the wage increase?

就合約而言，當我們考慮到薪資成長時，我們如何看待 2025 年的逆風？

No, that was largely baked into our plans. Look, the deal was a little bit more than we expected, but it's -- direct labor is about 10% of our costs. So I mean, our focus at this point will be making sure we can drive the right productivity and efficiency to compensate for that. But again, I think it's a fair deal, it's good for our employees. And look, our view is we want these to be the best jobs in town. We think it's -- this is a hugely important workforce. We need good people, we need to retain them. And we'd like to be that best job. And I think this makes us the best job in town. So it's a good trade for us.

不，這很大程度上已納入我們的計劃中。看，這筆交易比我們預期的要多一點，但直接勞動力約占我們成本的 10%。所以我的意思是，我們目前的重點將是確保我們能夠提高適當的生產力和效率來彌補這一點。但我再次認為這是一個公平的交易，對我們的員工有好處。看，我們的觀點是我們希望這些能成為城裡最好的工作。我們認為這是一支非常重要的勞動力隊伍。我們需要優秀的人才，我們需要留住他們。我們希望成為最好的工作。我認為這使我們成為城裡最好的工作。所以這對我們來說是一筆很好的交易。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Just want to follow up on David's question really and the recovery plan. It sounds like you've taken a fairly proactive approach to managing the supply chain that you haven't turned anyone off. In fact, you just kept things going and you've built up this inventory. Is that a fair analysis?

只是想跟進大衛的問題和恢復計劃。聽起來您已經採取了相當積極主動的方法來管理供應鏈，並且沒有讓任何人失望。事實上，你只是讓事情繼續下去，你就已經建立了這個庫存。這是一個公平的分析嗎？

Yes. Look, I mean, part shortages, while it has improved over the last few years, has still been problematic, I think, for everybody in the industry. It's gotten to be a smaller number of part numbers that are a problem, but they're still a problem, and that was continuing to drive a lot of out-of-station work and just significant inefficiencies in the factory. So our view was look, nobody wins a strike. The strike is not a good thing. But we certainly, during the period of strike, we're committed to go continue to work with those suppliers and try to resolve that problem. So again, from our perspective, this is all about how you move forward and expecting we'll get the workforce back in, which is now happening that we would put ourselves in a better situation in terms of parts and back shops and these things so that we can be more efficient going forward. So yes, that's going to cost us a little bit of inventory, but all that inventory is going to turn into airplanes. So I'm not particularly worried about that.

是的。我的意思是，零件短缺雖然在過去幾年有所改善，但我認為對於行業中的每個人來說仍然是一個問題。問題在於零件數量的減少，但它們仍然是一個問題，這繼續推動大量的站外工作，並導致工廠效率顯著低下。所以我們的觀點是，沒有人能贏得罷工。罷工不是什麼好事。但當然，在罷工期間，我們致力於繼續與這些供應商合作並努力解決這個問題。因此，從我們的角度來看，這完全取決於您如何前進並期望我們讓勞動力重新回歸，現在正在發生這種情況，我們將使自己在零件和後勤商店等方面處於更好的境地，所以我們可以更有效率地前進。所以，是的，這會花費我們一點庫存，但所有這些庫存都會變成飛機。所以我對此並不特別擔心。

Okay. And then as a follow-up on Industrial, you mentioned that specialty vehicles have been having some demand challenges. What about [Caltex]? Have you seen any softening on the European auto front?

好的。然後，作為工業的後續行動，您提到特種車輛一直面臨一些需求挑戰。 [加德士]呢？您是否看到歐洲汽車市場出現軟化？

Well, for sure, we have. I mean, auto is down around the world. European is probably the most challenged market. So the volumes are somewhat below where we would like them to be. But frankly, that team does a really good job of managing through and dealing with that and offsetting with productivity and pricing. And so I think the [Caltex] has actually have been performing quite well.

嗯，當然，我們有。我的意思是，世界各地的汽車都在下滑。歐洲可能是最具挑戰性的市場。因此，成交量略低於我們希望的水平。但坦白說，該團隊在管理和處理這個問題以及抵消生產力和定價方面做得非常好。所以我認為 [Caltex] 實際上表現得相當不錯。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Scott, maybe just to talk about just on the heels of NBAA. You guys obviously saw some nice bookings this quarter. Can you talk maybe just about what you're seeing on the demand environment, still seems obviously very favorable for a lot of your models?

Scott，也許只是在 NBAA 之後談論一下。你們顯然在本季看到了一些不錯的預訂。您能談談您在需求環境中看到的情況嗎？

Yes, Peter, I think it has. I mean we had over $1 billion here in Q3. As you know, Q3 is usually historically one of the lighter ones, right, the summer, July, August is kind of usually quieter. I think it was a good quarter of order activity. We're very encouraged with the refreshes that the team is putting out in both M2, CJ3, the new CJ4. Of course, we have the Ascend, which we announced too long, that's coming along very well. So the number of updates, which are pretty significant in terms of capability of the aircraft and safety, particularly with launching [Autoland] across all those single-pilot jet platforms is driving strong demand. So I think the end market continues to feel good. Order activity is -- flow is good. So I think we're still feeling good about where the industry is.

是的，彼得，我想是的。我的意思是，我們第三季的營收超過 10 億美元。如你所知，第三季通常是歷史上較輕的季度之一，對吧，夏季、七月、八月通常比較安靜。我認為這是一個訂單活動良好的季度。我們對團隊在 M2、CJ3 和新 CJ4 中推出的更新感到非常鼓舞。當然，我們還有 Ascend，雖然我們宣布的時間太長，但進展非常順利。因此，更新的數量在飛機的能力和安全性方面非常重要，特別是在所有這些單飛行員噴射機平台上推出[Autoland]，正在推動強勁的需求。所以我認為終端市場繼續感覺良好。訂單活躍度良好。所以我認為我們仍然對該行業的現狀感到滿意。

Yes. And just as a follow-up on pricing, I guess, net of inflation, you guys have done pretty well. What's the latest there? I just -- I assume, given that the demand environment is healthy?

是的。正如定價的後續行動一樣，我想，扣除通貨膨脹因素，你們做得相當不錯。那裡最新的情況是什麼？我只是——我認為，考慮到需求環境是健康的？

Yes. Pricing is still good, Peter, in the marketplace. But as we've talked about, I think the price inflation number is compressing, right? I mean so I would not expect to see big contributions and necessary price over inflation. What we've really got to be doing is driving productivity and efficiency in the factories to continue to maintain that momentum. So testing dynamic is good, that's not a problem. But you had this pretty significant price inflation spreads. And again, that will -- as we've talked about before, that will be coming down. But we're not banking on that to drive the kind of margin and performance that we need to see going forward. We've really got to drive good old-fashioned productivity and efficiencies on that volume.

是的。彼得，市場上的定價仍然不錯。但正如我們所討論的，我認為價格通膨數字正在壓縮，對吧？我的意思是，我不希望看到巨大的貢獻和必要的價格超過通貨膨脹。我們真正要做的是提高工廠的生產力和效率，以繼續保持這種勢頭。所以測試動態是好的，這不是問題。但物價通膨利差相當大。再說一次，正如我們之前談到的，這將會下降。但我們並不指望以此來推動我們未來需要看到的利潤率和業績。我們確實必須在該數量上提高老式的生產力和效率。

The only thing I'd add on that is for this quarter and next quarter, with the lower volume, which is where price comes through and essentially inflation across all aspects of the cost structure, not just the aircraft, but SG&A and other things; that puts pressure on price versus net of inflation. So for this quarter, it's net zero price, but that is certainly impacted by the lower volume associated with the strike, and that will have an impact on the price versus inflation on a net basis in the fourth quarter as well.

我唯一要補充的是，本季和下季的銷售量較低，這是價格的體現，本質上是成本結構各個方面的通貨膨脹，不僅是飛機，還有銷售、管理費用和其他方面；這對扣除通貨膨脹後的價格造成壓力。因此，本季的淨價格為零，但這肯定受到與罷工相關的成交量下降的影響，這也會對第四季度的淨價格與通貨膨脹產生影響。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Frank, congrats on the retirement. Thanks for all the help and the relationship over the years. And David, congrats on becoming the CFO. How many Cessna jet deliveries are we expecting in the fourth quarter, given the abnormal backdrop with the strike and the recovery?

弗蘭克，恭喜你退休。感謝多年來的所有幫助和關係。大衛，恭喜您成為財務長。鑑於罷工和復甦的異常背景，我們預計第四季度將交付多少架塞斯納噴射機？

No. I mean we've never given a number yet. So I think we'll probably just stick to revenue at this stage of the game, but I mean, it's $0.5 billion of revenue, obviously, adjustment, which is pretty significant. But yes, I think that accounts for what's turning out to be really a kind of a 5-week strike duration and then just the inefficiencies and just the time of getting it ramped back up and going.

不，我的意思是我們還沒有給出具體數字。所以我認為我們可能會堅持在遊戲的這個階段的收入，但我的意思是，這是 5 億美元的收入，顯然是調整，這是相當重要的。但是，是的，我認為這說明了實際上為期 5 週的罷工持續時間，然後就是效率低下以及恢復正常運作所需的時間。

Okay. Okay. And Scott, I guess in 2025, should we anticipate that Jan 1, when you're starting a year, you're pretty much recovered and it's a clean run rate production line? Or could there be disruption that bleeds into the beginning of the year? And then, should we expect the aircraft that slip out of '24 to add what you previously had planned for '25 or does it kind of smooth out over a longer period of time?

好的。好的。斯科特，我想在 2025 年，我們是否應該預期 1 月 1 日，當你開始新的一年時，你已經基本康復，並且這是一條乾淨運行率的生產線？還是會出現持續到年初的混亂？然後，我們是否應該期望 24 年淘汰的飛機能夠增加您之前為 25 年計劃的飛機，或者它是否會在較長一段時間內趨於平穩？

Well, so first of all, we certainly expect by January 1, we're running at normal productivity and a smooth rate. I mean. We're here in late October, we've got November, December here to get things ramped and operating smoothly. So I certainly expect by the start of the year, the factory will be stable and doing well. I guess, the only -- I mean, we're kind of probably not ready to guide 2025 yet. But as I said -- no, I do think if you look at what we were doing in production ramp and our expectations in terms of where we were going to be in 2025 while the 2024 is obviously an issue and impacted, we certainly expect to see good, healthy revenue growth in '25 above what we originally guided in '24.

嗯，首先，我們當然希望到 1 月 1 日，我們能夠以正常的生產力和平穩的速度運作。我是說。我們在 10 月下旬來到這裡，我們還有 11 月、12 月在這裡讓一切順利進行。所以我當然預計到今年年初，工廠將會穩定且運作良好。我想，唯一的——我的意思是，我們可能還沒準備好指導 2025 年。但正如我所說，不，我確實認為，如果你看看我們在產量提升方面所做的事情以及我們對 2025 年的預期，而 2024 年顯然是一個問題並受到影響，我們當然希望預計25 年收入將實現良好、健康的成長，高於我們24 年最初的預期。

Okay. And then just lastly on the margin at Aviation, should we all just continue to contemplate the incremental margin framework you've referenced in the past? Or is cost now different enough? Or is there still a lot of opportunity on the productivity front? How should we be thinking about that over the medium term?

好的。最後，關於航空業的利潤率，我們是否應該繼續考慮您過去提到的增量利潤率框架？或者現在的成本已經夠不同了嗎？或者在生產力方面仍然有很多機會嗎？從中期來看，我們該如何考慮這個問題？

Look, we still think about this business as converting at to 20-plus percent in terms of revenue, given the kind of the mix of gross margin across the business. So that's still, I think, an appropriate long-term guide.

看，考慮到整個業務的毛利率組合，我們仍然認為該業務的收入轉換率為 20% 以上。因此，我認為這仍然是一個合適的長期指南。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

I was wondering if you could talk to Systems, and you mentioned the 2 contracts that are being decided next year FTUAS and the Robotic Combat Vehicle. Is an outcome on those basically going to dictate whether or not Systems can start a real growth profile? It's been obviously flattish for a long, long time. And how critical are those 2 programs?

我想知道您是否可以與 Systems 交談，您提到了明年將決定的 2 份合約 FTUAS 和機器人戰車。這些結果是否基本上將決定係統是否可以開始真正的成長概況？很明顯，很長一段時間以來，它一直處於平坦狀態。這兩個項目有多重要？

Absolutely. Look, I mean, these are programs that we've been investing for a long time to position ourselves. They are key factors of driving growth for the business in the future. There's other programs, obviously. In fact, I think, frankly, if you look at 2024, that business is performing extraordinarily well. We did take a hit at the beginning of the year, which we did not anticipate around the Shadow getting pulled out of service. Other businesses within Systems over the course of the year have grown to help to offset that. And as we said, even with a hit, which was not trivial to us, the businesses are hitting their original guide in terms of revenue, and they're going to be on the high side of their margins. So I think the Systems team is performing very well. But yes, absolutely, those programs like FTUAS and like RCV, and of course, there's ARV in the year out, such are key drivers of growth in the future.

絕對地。聽著，我的意思是，這些都是我們長期以來為了定位自己而投資的項目。它們是推動未來業務成長的關鍵因素。顯然還有其他程序。事實上，坦白說，如果你看看 2024 年，你會發現該業務的表現非常好。我們在今年年初確實受到了打擊，我們沒有預料到影子號將停止服務。今年系統內的其他業務也有所成長，以幫助抵消這種影響。正如我們所說，即使受到打擊（這對我們來說並非小事），這些企業的收入也達到了最初的目標，而且利潤率也將處於較高水平。所以我認為系統團隊表現得非常好。但是，是的，絕對有像 FTUAS 和 RCV 這樣的項目，當然，今年還有 ARV，這些都是未來成長的關鍵驅動力。

And just one quick one. Is the 525 still on track for 4Q? Or is that slipping into '25?

只是一個快速的。 525 是否仍有望在第四季實現成長？或者說這會滑入25年？

I were -- we're actually just down there yesterday. Look, the flight test program is continuing. I hate to put dates out there because we don't certify that, right? I mean it's -- I'd say, the relationship and the work going on with FAA is good. Flight test program is going well. Whether it gets this year, if I were to guess, I would obviously say, it would slip into 2025 just because of just the sheer amount of documentation and paperwork and number of approvals that need to flow through before the official TC gets put on there. So we continue to do the work on the flight test and all the work that we have to do on our side. And of course, we're already moving a lot of resource into various kits and capabilities that need to be added on to the aircraft over its life cycle. So -- and that work will go on in parallel with the certification process.

我——我們實際上昨天才到那裡。看，飛行測試計劃還在繼續。我討厭把日期放在那裡，因為我們沒有證實這一點，對嗎？我的意思是——我想說，與美國聯邦航空局的關係和正在進行的工作都很好。飛行測試計畫進展順利。無論是今年，如果我猜的話，我顯然會說，它會推遲到 2025 年，因為在官方 TC 上線之前需要經過大量的文件和文書工作以及批准數量。所以我們繼續做飛行測試的工作以及我們這邊必須做的所有工作。當然，我們已經將大量資源轉移到各種套件和功能中，這些套件和功能需要在飛機的生命週期中添加到其中。因此，這項工作將與認證過程同時進行。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Congratulations, Frank and Dave. I wanted to ask about the margin in Aviation. And so ex the strike, it looks like it was kind of in the mid-11% range, which was kind of below the guidance range for the year. I know there's variability quarter-to-quarter and you talked about Q2 being exceptionally strong, but just anything to point out there with regard to why we saw kind of a step down there versus what we've become accustomed to seeing in recent quarters?

恭喜，法蘭克和戴夫。我想問一下航空業的利潤率。因此，除去罷工因素，看起來是在 11% 的中間範圍內，這有點低於今年的指導範圍。我知道季度與季度之間存在差異，您談到第二季度異常強勁，但有什麼可以指出的，與我們最近幾個季度習慣看到的情況相比，為什麼我們看到了某種程度的下降？

Well, look, I mean, strikes are a bit messy, right, when you go back and you look at idle facility and impacts and total year volumes and assumed overhead rates and liquidation rates. So part of what you're seeing in the quarter and the year is you've got to factor in a lot of significantly lower volume all of a sudden with a lot of cost, which -- some of which is not variable. And so that's part of why you see that drag in both Q3 as well as in our updated guidance for the full year.

好吧，我的意思是，罷工有點混亂，對吧，當你回去看看閒置設施和影響、全年總量以及假設的間接費用率和清算率時。因此，你在本季度和今年看到的部分情況是，你必須考慮到突然大量的銷量大幅下降以及大量的成本，其中一些是不可變化的。因此，這就是為什麼您在第三季以及我們更新的全年指引中看到這種拖累的部分原因。

Okay. Okay. Got it. And then I guess maybe thinking about the margin at Bell and profitability coming in ahead of expectations this year, as FLRAA continues to grow, is this something where you can kind of continue to maybe see some improvement here, given performance elsewhere? Or should we still be thinking about maybe profit dollar growth but margin rate declines?

好的。好的。知道了。然後我想，隨著 FLRAA 的持續增長，貝爾今年的利潤率和盈利能力將超出預期，考慮到其他地方的表現，你是否可以繼續在這裡看到一些改善？或者我們仍然應該考慮利潤美元成長但利潤率下降？

Yes. Look, we're still trying to drive the profit dollar growth. The FLRAA program is growing and will continue to grow next year fairly significantly, which is great, obviously. But that is -- as you know, had a lower margin mix. But the commercial market is strong. So that's helpful to us. The win in Nigeria, which is actually going to grow the H1 original equipment volumes here over the next -- couple 2, 3 years is obviously helpful. So there are some things in there mix-wise that are helping. But again, I still think given the significant growth of the FLRAA program, our focus really is how do we continue to be accretive and make sure that we're growing margin dollars in the subsequent years.

是的。看，我們仍在努力推動利潤成長。 FLRAA 計劃正在不斷發展，明年將繼續大幅發展，這顯然是件好事。但正如你所知，這是一個較低的利潤組合。但商業市場強勁。所以這對我們很有幫助。在尼日利亞的勝利實際上將在接下來的兩三年內增加這裡的 H1 原始設備數量，這顯然是有幫助的。因此，其中有一些混合方面的東西是有幫助的。但我仍然認為，鑑於 FLRAA 計劃的顯著增長，我們的重點實際上是如何繼續增值並確保我們在接下來的幾年中增加利潤。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Congrats to Frank and Dave. If you look forward from here, say, over the next 5 years and thinking about what you're going to be investing in on the Aviation side with respect to R&D and CapEx, how do you see that profile evolving? And are there specific areas where you really intend to be focusing there?

恭喜法蘭克和戴夫。如果您展望未來 5 年，並​​思考您將在航空方面的研發和資本支出方面進行哪些投資，您如何看待這種情況的演變？您確實打算專注於哪些特定領域？

Well, look, I mean, I think that I don't see us making a big change. I think what we've been doing for the last number of years and I would expect we continue to do in the future is a nice mix of upgrade programs to our existing portfolio, which, as we talked about earlier, drives healthy growth. And it's very well received, I'd say, on the customer front with occasional new product clean sheet that drops in. So that is a formula that has worked for us, and I think we'll continue to make that. From an R&D perspective, we've talked about kind of making this at or a slight tailwind in terms of -- on a percent of sales basis. Part of our margin challenge towards the end of the year is we've -- you assume that you're -- what you're doing on the R&D front is fairly fixed over the course of the year. So if you lose a big chunk of revenue, obviously, in the strike, that kind of hurts you a little bit. But I mean, that's an unusual circumstance obviously. So I think we'll see fairly stable R&D, and we'll raise it appropriately when we have the right programs to invest. But I'd say, generally speaking, we view that it should be a tailwind in terms of a percent of sales for the business while making the right investments to keep growing the business.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為我們不會做出重大改變。我認為我們過去幾年一直在做的事情以及我希望我們在未來繼續做的事情是對我們現有的產品組合進行升級計劃的完美組合，正如我們之前談到的，這將推動健康成長。我想說，它在客戶方面很受歡迎，偶爾會有新產品乾淨的表出現。從研發的角度來看，我們已經討論過在銷售百分比的基礎上使其處於或略微順風的狀態。我們在年底面臨的利潤挑戰的一部分是我們——你假設你——你在研發方面所做的事情在這一年中是相當固定的。因此，如果你在罷工中損失了一大筆收入，顯然會對你造成一些傷害。但我的意思是，這顯然是一個不尋常的情況。因此，我認為我們將看到相當穩定的研發，當我們有合適的投資項目時，我們將適當地提高研發水準。但我想說，一般來說，我們認為，就業務銷售額的百分比而言，這應該是一個順風車，同時進行正確的投資以保持業務成長。

And then separately, when we go into 2025 and if we put the strike aside for the moment, you said that during the strike, you've been able to make some progress with respect to the supply chain it seemed that really the limiting factor for you in Aviation is not demand. It is really -- it may be really just the supply chain. So if you've been able to narrow some -- the issues within the supply chain, can you describe where the bottlenecks are now, the principal bottlenecks? And if there's a point you see where you think you can get back to a world when the limiting factor is no longer dealing with the supplier issues?

然後單獨來說，當我們進入 2025 年時，如果我們暫時把罷工放在一邊，你說在罷工期間，你已經能夠在供應鏈方面取得一些進展，這似乎確實是限制因素你在航空業沒有需求。這確實是——可能真的只是供應鏈。因此，如果您能夠縮小供應鏈內的一些問題，您能否描述一下現在的瓶頸、主要瓶頸在哪裡？如果您認為在某個時刻您認為可以回到限制因素不再是處理供應商問題的世界？

Well, I think the limited factor -- I mean, it has been some critical supply things. It's been our own resourcing and staffing and the ramp. But as I said, I think that when I think about how you look at 2025, despite the interruptions that we've had here in 2024, I think our plans in terms of expanding capacity and delivering more product, increasing our revenue that, that thesis is still on track, and you'll see that in 2025, despite the fact that we had a trusting production here in 2024. So we have had a ramp plan that was coordinated with suppliers and our own internal resourcing and staffing. And I think that's still in place, and that's why you should expect that we'll see revenue growth in '25 above the '24 original guidance.

嗯，我認為有限的因素 - 我的意思是，這是一些關鍵的供應問題。這是我們自己的資源、人員配置和坡道。但正如我所說，我認為當我考慮如何看待 2025 年時，儘管我們在 2024 年遇到了乾擾，但我認為我們在擴大產能和提供更多產品、增加收入方面的計劃，論文仍在正軌上，你會在2025 年看到這一點，儘管事實上我們在2024 年已經有了值得信賴的生產。我認為這仍然存在，這就是為什麼你應該預期我們將在 25 年看到收入成長高於 24 年最初的指引。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Frank, congrats on -- and good luck with the next phase. And Dave, congratulations, well deserved. I look forward to working with you more closely in that role. Scott, couple of quick questions for you. You mentioned labor productivity earlier as a way to offset maybe some of the higher costs associated with the strike. I'm just curious if you can make some bigger picture generalized comments about labor productivity, maybe now versus where we were prior to the pandemic and kind of the things that you are doing to drive labor productivity back to maybe where we were, if it was better back then? And how much longer do you think it takes for labor productivity to kind of return to historic levels?

弗蘭克，恭喜——祝下一階段好運。戴夫，恭喜你，當之無愧。我期待著在這個職位上與您更密切地合作。史考特，有幾個簡單的問題想問你。您之前提到勞動生產力可能是抵銷與罷工相關的一些較高成本的一種方式。我只是好奇你是否能對勞動生產力做出一些更宏觀的概括性評論，也許是現在與大流行之前的情況相比，以及你正在做的一些事情，以推動勞動生產力回到我們原來的水平，如果那時更好嗎？您認為勞動生產力需要多長時間才能恢復到歷史水準？

Well, look, there were 2 major contributors to the inefficiencies, which certainly manifest themselves largely in productivity in the factory, part of it was certainly supplier parts. When you're looking at running a production line and you've got lots of holes in your part bin, you start doing stuff that's out of sequence and having to rework things and swap things between aircraft, and there is a lot of disruption that comes from that. As I said, I think while it won't be perfect, what we did work through the strike period to try to get the on-time to PO and supplier delivery to where we have many, many, many fewer of these instances where we don't have the part available at the time that we need to consume that part in the various stages of the production line. The other, frankly, is just pure labor, right? I mean, like most companies, coming out of COVID, we saw a lot of turnover. We have a lot of hiring of new people. So there's been a lot of training. And clearly, that drives a lot of inefficiencies. It's not just that new person, it's our senior people who participate in helping to train and develop these new people. So I do think that labor contract and getting that behind us. And yes, it's a significant GWI, but it makes these jobs even more attractive in that market. which we think is -- makes us as an employer more attractive and hopefully, stronger on the retention side. So stabilizing that, not just adding the numbers of people, but getting it towards a stable number and it's the same people that are coming in; is a huge part of that. So I think that the parts thing, I feel much better about. We worked that really hard over the last month or so to get that in a much healthier place. And again, I think with the GWIs that are out there, these are the best jobs in town. And I think that will help us not just attract but also retain that hourly workforce that builds these aircraft, which is critical to driving that efficiency and productivity in our factory.

嗯，看，造成效率低下的主要原因有兩個，這當然主要體現在工廠的生產力上，其中一部分肯定是供應商零件。當你考慮運行一條生產線時，如果你的零件箱中有很多洞，你就會開始做一些不按順序進行的事情，並且必須返工並在飛機之間交換東西，並且會出現很多中斷來自那。正如我所說，我認為雖然這不會是完美的，但我們在罷工期間所做的工作是努力讓採購訂單和供應商按時交貨，我們有很多很多這樣的情況。各個階段消耗該零件時，沒有可用的零件。另一個，坦白說，只是純粹的勞動，對嗎？我的意思是，像大多數公司一樣，從新冠疫情走出來後，我們看到了大量的人員流動。我們僱用了很多新人。所以我們進行了大量的訓練。顯然，這會導致效率低下。不僅是新人，還有我們的資深人員參與幫助培訓和發展這些新人。所以我確實認為勞動合約已經成為過去。是的，這是一個重要的 GWI，但它使這些工作在該市場上更具吸引力。我們認為這使我們作為雇主更具吸引力，並希望在保留方面更強大。因此，要穩定這一點，不僅僅是增加人數，而是使其達到一個穩定的數字，而且進來的人是同樣的人；是其中很大一部分。所以我認為零件的事情，我感覺好多了。在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們非常努力地工作，以使其更加健康。再說一次，我認為對 GWI 來說，這些是城裡最好的工作。我認為這不僅有助於我們吸引而且還能留住製造這些飛機的小時工，這對於提高我們工廠的效率和生產力至關重要。

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then the second question was just more of maybe a philosophical one. If you could wave a magic wand and always have this be the case, I know this is difficult to control, but kind of months of backlog in the Aviation business, what is the North Star for you all? What do you -- where would you like to try to manage the business to on a pretty consistent basis over the longer term?

好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。然後第二個問題可能更多的是一個哲學問題。如果你能揮動魔杖並始終保持這種情況，我知道這很難控制，但是航空業務積壓了幾個月，對你們來說北極星是什麼？從長遠來看，您希望在哪些方面嘗試以相當一致的方式管理業務？

I think if you look at -- it's a little bit different across different products in our product portfolio. But I would say, generally speaking, being out there 18, 24 months is a very healthy place for us to be for a couple of reasons. One, many of our customers already own aircraft, and their ability to remarket their aircraft and manage and have -- know what their timeline is and when a window of time to go sell their aircraft is important. And it also gives us the right amount of time to specify aircraft and interiors and go through a very smooth process, where we know when that aircraft hit the line, what is that aircraft or what's the configuration. A lot of stuff is standard, obviously, but there are customizations that happen towards the latter part of the process. And having that all set and well understood, being able to signal and have a consistent volume and delivery dates with our suppliers, I mean it really helps to make a business where it can run smoothly when you can see out that 18 to 24 months on volumes and product mix and product configuration.

我認為，如果你看一下——我們產品組合中的不同產品略有不同。但我想說，一般來說，在外面待 18、24 個月對我們來說是一個非常健康的狀態，原因有幾個。第一，我們的許多客戶已經擁有飛機，他們有能力重新銷售飛機並進行管理，並且知道他們的時間表是什麼，以及何時出售飛機的時間窗口很重要。它還為我們提供了適當的時間來指定飛機和內飾，並經歷一個非常順利的過程，我們知道飛機何時到達生產線、飛機是什麼或配置是什麼。顯然，很多東西都是標準的，但在流程的後半部分會發生一些客製化。在一切就緒並得到充分理解後，能夠向供應商發出信號並保持一致的數量和交貨日期，我的意思是，當您可以看到18 至24 個月的時間時，這確實有助於使業務順利運作。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

And Frank and Dave, congrats. Just wanted to ask a couple of bridging questions. On Industrial, are you still seeing some benefit of the restructuring? Or is that largely already in place at this point?

法蘭克和戴夫，恭喜。只是想問幾個過渡問題。在工業方面，您仍然看到重組帶來的一些好處嗎？或者目前基本上已經到位了？

Well, I mean I think clearly, we've been restructuring through the course of the year, but I'd say there's more restructuring to come, for sure. I think the end markets, and particularly in a couple of segments of the business, are continuing to be soft, and I think they're going to be soft for a little while. So we'll continue to do what we think is appropriate to restructure and maximize our performance in each of those business segments.

嗯，我的意思是，我清楚地認為，我們在這一年中一直在進行重組，但我想說，肯定還會有更多的重組。我認為終端市場，特別是幾個業務領域，繼續疲軟，我認為它們會持續疲軟一段時間。因此，我們將繼續採取我們認為適當的措施來重組並最大限度地提高我們在每個業務部門的績效。

Got it. And on Aviation, can you just remind us how the performance accounting line works? If you have cost on aircraft this year that deliver next year, do we expect some margin headwind there?

知道了。在航空方面，您能提醒我們績效會計線是如何運作的嗎？如果今年飛機的成本是明年交付的，我們是否預計會出現利潤逆風？

The performance line is -- there's a lot of stuff in performance line, I don't know if I could walk through it. I mean, clearly, this quarter and for the full year, you've got unusual things in there, right? I mean factory inefficiency or [period] expensing, idle factory costs, which is not a normal thing for us. Obviously, manufacturing variances go through that. It's -- there's a lot of moving parts in that so-called performance line.

性能線是——性能線裡有很多東西，我不知道我是否能講完。我的意思是，很明顯，這個季度和全年，你都有不尋常的事情，對吧？我的意思是工廠效率低或[時期]費用、工廠閒置成本，這對我們來說不是正常的事。顯然，製造差異會經歷這個過程。在所謂的性能係列中有很多移動部件。

Peter Skibitski, Alembic.

彼得·斯基比特斯基，蒸餾器。

I was wondering if you go back to FLRAA now that you have the Milestone B approval. I just wonder if you could put a finer point on the revenue line since it's so substantial. I think last I recall, you were thinking about $900 million in revenue this year. And Scott, you're talking about substantial increase next year. Is there any way to put a finer point on that?

我想知道既然您已獲得里程碑 B 批准，您是否會返回 FLRAA。我只是想知道您是否可以對收入線進行更詳細的說明，因為它是如此之大。我想上次我記得，您考慮的是今年 9 億美元的收入。斯科特，你正在談論明年的大幅成長。有什麼辦法可以對此提出更好的觀點嗎？

Pete, I think $900 million is probably around the right number this year. It's probably going to be $100 million to $200 million higher than that next year, just based on what's in the budget. I mean I have a little bit -- I always try to be a little careful here at any of these things are appropriated, right? They're not appropriated yet. We don't actually have a budget. So -- but I -- if you look at what's in the appropriations process, I guess, once they pass the budget, I would expect that we'll see some additional ramp as we go into next year. And I think as you talk about the Army, there's full support for this. I mean, obviously, the criticality of getting through [CDR] is huge. And so I think the customer is just as committed as we are to keep driving this thing forward, and that will -- that only happens with some increased funding next year, and I think everybody is on board with that.

皮特，我認為今年 9 億美元可能是合適的數字。僅根據預算，可能會比明年多出 1 億至 2 億美元。我的意思是我有一點——我總是在任何這些東西被挪用時盡量小心，對吧？他們還沒有被挪用。我們實際上沒有預算。所以 - 但我 - 如果你看看撥款過程中的內容，我想，一旦他們通過了預算，我預計進入明年我們會看到一些額外的增長。我認為當你談論陸軍時，你會全力支持這一點。我的意思是，顯然，透過 [CDR] 的重要性是巨大的。因此，我認為客戶和我們一樣致力於繼續推動這件事向前發展，而這只有在明年增加一些資金的情況下才會發生，我認為每個人都同意這一點。

Okay. No, I appreciate it. And then just the decision to in-source the cabin from Spirit, what's the right way to think about sort of the technical and the schedule risk there? Obviously, it's probably easier than if you were kind of midstream in production. But can you give us a sense of how you guys are viewing that decision?

好的。不，我很感激。然後就決定從 Spirit 購買機艙，考慮那裡的技術和進度風險的正確方法是什麼？顯然，這可能比您處於生產中游更容易。但您能否讓我們了解一下你們如何看待這個決定？

Well, look, I think that the -- as you kind of know, Peter, given the status of where that was, right, kind of just starting EMD, made it a fairly low risk, easy process to execute, the Spirit team was highly collaborative and worked very closely with us in that process, and it's done. So we're focused on going forward. We're executing to that, and so far so good.

好吧，看，我認為 - 正如你所知道的，彼得，考慮到當時的情況，對，有點剛開始 EMD，使其成為一個風險相當低、易於執行的流程，Spirit 團隊在此過程中與我們高度協作並密切合作，現在就完成了。所以我們專注於前進。我們正在執行這一點，到目前為止一切順利。

We have no further questions in queue at this time. (Operator Instructions)

目前我們沒有其他問題在排隊。 （操作員說明）

This does conclude the conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。