達信公司 (TXT) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by.

謝謝你的支持。

Welcome to the Textron third-quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加德事隆 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Rosenberg, Vice President, Investor Relations.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 David Rosenberg。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thanks, Kaylee, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝凱莉，大家早安。

Before we begin, I'd like to mention we will be discussing future estimates and expectations during our call today.

在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在今天的電話會議中討論未來的估計和期望。

These forward-looking statements are subject to various risk factors, which are detailed in our SEC filings and also in today's press release.

這些前瞻性陳述受到各種風險因素的影響，這些風險因素在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的新聞稿中都有詳細說明。

On the call today, we have Scott Donnelly, Textron's Chairman and CEO; and Frank Connor, our Chief Financial Officer.

今天的電話會議由德事隆董事長兼執行長 Scott Donnelly 主持。和我們的財務長弗蘭克康納。

Our earnings call presentation can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們的財報電話會議演示可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Revenues in the quarter were $3.4 billion, up from $3.3 billion in last year's third quarter.

本季營收為 34 億美元，高於去年第三季的 33 億美元。

During this year's third quarter, adjusted income from continuing operations was $1.40 per share, compared to $1.49 per share in last year's third quarter.

今年第三季度，調整後的持續營運收入為每股 1.40 美元，而去年第三季為每股 1.49 美元。

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions totaled $147 million in the quarter, compared to $205 million in the third quarter of 2023.

本季退休金繳款前的製造業現金流總額為 1.47 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 2.05 億美元。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.

這樣，我會將電話轉給史考特。

Thanks, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

During the quarter, Aviation experienced a strike on the expiration of its existing labor agreement with the IAM.

本季度，航空業因與 IAM 的現有勞動協定到期而遭受罷工。

Work stoppage caused disruption to our aircraft production and service in our Wichita facilities.

停工導致我們威奇托工廠的飛機生產和服務中斷。

On October 20, the IAM ratified a new five-year contract ending a four-week strike.

10 月 20 日，IAM 批准了一份新的五年合約，結束了為期四週的罷工。

As employees return to work and production and delivery activities recover, resulting disruptions will impact our 2024 financial results.

隨著員工重返工作崗位以及生產和交付活動的恢復，由此造成的中斷將影響我們 2024 年的財務表現。

In the quarter, Aviation delivered 41 jets, up from 39 last year, and 25 commercial turboprops, down from 38 in last year's third quarter.

本季度，航空交付了 41 架噴射機，高於去年的 39 架，交付了 25 架商用渦輪螺旋槳飛機，低於去年第三季度的 38 架。

Aftermarket revenues grew 5% for the third quarter of 2023 -- versus 2023, and our year-to-date aftermarket revenues were up 8% as compared to prior year.

與 2023 年相比，2023 年第三季售後市場收入成長了 5%，而我們年初至今的售後市場收入比上一年增長了 8%。

Aviation continued to see strong demand in the quarter, booking over $1 billion in new orders.

本季航空業需求持續強勁，新訂單數量超過 10 億美元。

Backlog grew $162 million, ending the third quarter at $7.6 billion.

Backlog 成長了 1.62 億美元，第三季末達到 76 億美元。

During the quarter, Aviation delivered the 400th Cessna Citation Latitude.

本季度，航空交付了第 400 架塞斯納獎狀緯度飛機。

Latitude has been the best-selling aircraft in the midsize jet segment since it was introduced into service in 2015.

自 2015 年投入使用以來，Latitude 一直是中型噴射機領域最暢銷的飛機。

At NBAA this week, Aviation also announced the Gen3 updates of the Citation M2, CJ3 and CJ4, reflecting continued investments in this product portfolio.

在本週的 NBAA 上，Aviation 還宣布了 Citation M2、CJ3 和 CJ4 的 Gen3 更新，反映了對該產品組合的持續投資。

At Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million over last year, and segment profit was $98 million, up $21 million as compared to the third quarter last year.

貝爾的營收為 9.29 億美元，比去年第三季增加 1.75 億美元，部門利潤為 9,800 萬美元，比去年第三季增加 2,100 萬美元。

During the quarter, the US Army announced approval of Milestone B for the FLRAA program.

本季度，美國陸軍宣布批准 FLRAA 計畫的里程碑 B。

This significant milestone establishes FLRAA as a program of record and transition the program to the engineering and manufacturing development phase.

這一重要的里程碑將 FLRAA 確立為記錄計劃，並將該計劃過渡到工程和製造開發階段。

This phase includes continued digital modeling, detailed hardware and software design, and fabrication of hardware as Bell proceeds to critical design review and the first flight planned for 2026.

這一階段包括持續的數位建模、詳細的硬體和軟體設計以及硬體製造，貝爾將進行關鍵設計審查併計劃於 2026 年進行首次飛行。

As a result of Milestone B and the subsequent EMD award, Bell's backlog grew by $2.3 billion in the quarter, now totaling $6.5 billion.

由於里程碑 B 和隨後獲得的 EMD 獎項，貝爾的積壓訂單在本季增加了 23 億美元，目前總計 65 億美元。

On the commercial side, Bell saw increased order activity in the quarter.

在商業方面，貝爾看到本季的訂單活動增加。

Bell delivered 44 helicopters, up from 23 in last year's third quarter.

貝爾交付了 44 架直升機，高於去年第三季的 23 架。

Textron Systems revenues and profits were slightly lower compared to last year.

德事隆系統公司的營收和利潤與去年相比略有下降。

In the quarter, Systems completed two major milestones in the Army's FTUAS program, a modular open systems approach conformance evaluation, and a prototype aircraft flight demonstration.

本季度，Systems 完成了陸軍 FTUAS 計畫的兩個主要里程碑：模組化開放系統方法一致性評估和原型飛行演示。

The team will now proceed to option four of the competitive program, which includes delivery of a production representative aircraft system for Army testing and evaluation.

該團隊現在將繼續實施競爭計劃的第四個選項，其中包括交付具有生產代表性的飛機系統以供陸軍測試和評估。

Systems expanded its US Navy Aerosonde operations with awards for two new land-based sites and three new maritime sites.

Systems 擴大了其美國海軍航空探空儀業務，並獲得了兩個新的陸基站點和三個新的海上站點。

Also in the quarter, Systems delivered two prototype Ripsaw M3 Robotic Vehicles to the US Army for testing as part of Phase 1 of the Robotic Combat Vehicle program.

同樣在本季度，Systems 向美國陸軍交付了兩輛 Ripsaw M3 機器人車輛原型，作為機器人戰車計畫第一階段的一部分進行測試。

The Army is expected to downselect the Phase 2 for production represented prototype in mid-2025.

預計陸軍將在 2025 年中期取消第二階段生產代表原型的選擇。

Moving to Industrial, the segment experienced lower revenues and operating profit in the quarter, driven by continuing softness in Specialized Vehicles end markets.

轉向工業領域，由於專用車輛終端市場持續疲軟，該部門本季的營收和營業利潤下降。

Specialized Vehicles continue to take cost actions to align with lower production volumes.

特種車輛繼續採取成本行動以適應產量下降。

Moving to eAviation, the Nuuva 300 continued integration testing, including a full system power on and flight simulation run conducted this quarter.

轉向 eAviation，Nuuva 300 繼續進行整合測試，包括本季進行的完整系統開機和飛行模擬運行。

The team is now focused on preparations for the aircraft's first hover flight, which is expected in Q4 of this year.

該團隊目前正專注於飛機首次懸停飛行的準備工作，預計今年第四季進行。

Also during the quarter, the Nexus eVTOL program continued to progress on the wing and empennage assemblies and outfitting of the ground control station, preparation for the start of flight testing, which is expected to begin in 2025.

同樣在本季度，Nexus eVTOL 計畫在機翼和尾翼組件以及地面控制站的裝備方面繼續取得進展，為預計將於 2025 年開始的飛行測試做準備。

Finally, as we announced yesterday, we're making some important executive changes at Textron.

最後，正如我們昨天宣布的那樣，我們將對德事隆進行一些重要的高階主管變動。

Our CFO, Frank Connor, has notified us that he intends to retire from the company on February 28, 2025.

我們的財務長 Frank Connor 已通知我們，他打算於 2025 年 2 月 28 日從公司退休。

Dave Rosenberg, our current Vice President of Investor Relations, has been elected as our new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer succeeding Frank.

我們現任投資者關係副總裁 Dave Rosenberg 已被選為接替弗蘭克的新執行副總裁兼財務長。

Dave has more than 24 years of experience in the aviation industry and has served in a series of finance and strategy positions at Textron Aviation, Beechcraft and its predecessor companies.

Dave 在航空業擁有超過 24 年的經驗，曾在德事隆航空、Beechcraft 及其前身公司擔任一系列財務和策略職位。

In addition, Scott Hegstrom has been elected Vice President of Investor Relations, replacing Dave.

此外，斯科特·赫格斯特羅姆 (Scott Hegstrom) 被選為投資者關係副總裁，接替戴夫 (Dave)。

Both elections are effective March 1, 2025.

兩次選舉均於 2025 年 3 月 1 日生效。

I want to thank Frank for his outstanding leadership and significant contributions to Textron during his 15 years and to congratulate Dave and Scott on their new appointments.

我要感謝弗蘭克在 15 年來的傑出領導能力和對德事隆的重大貢獻，並祝賀戴夫和斯科特獲得新任命。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Frank.

這樣，我就把電話轉給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Scott, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝斯科特，大家早安。

Let's review how each of the segments contributed, starting with Textron Aviation.

讓我們回顧一下每個部門的貢獻，從德事隆航空開始。

In the third quarter of 2024, delayed aircraft deliveries along with unfavorable performance resulting from the IAM strike lowered Textron Aviation's revenues by about $50 million and segment profit by around $30 million.

2024 年第三季度，飛機交付延遲以及 IAM 罷工導致的業績不佳導致德事隆航空收入減少約 5,000 萬美元，部門利潤減少約 3,000 萬美元。

Revenue at Textron Aviation of $1.3 billion were essentially flat with the third quarter of 2023 with higher pricing of $36 million, mostly offset by lower volume and mix of $35 million.

德事隆航空的營收為 13 億美元，與 2023 年第三季基本持平，定價上漲了 3,600 萬美元，但大部分被銷量下降和 3,500 萬美元的組合所抵消。

Segment profit was $128 million in the third quarter, down $32 million from a year ago, largely due to lower volume and mix of $29 million.

第三季該部門利潤為 1.28 億美元，比去年同期減少 3,200 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和組合減少 2,900 萬美元。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $7.6 billion, up $162 million from the second quarter.

截至本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達到 76 億美元，比第二季增加 1.62 億美元。

Moving to Bell, revenues were $929 million, up $175 million from last year, largely reflecting higher volume and mix of $148 million.

貝爾的收入為 9.29 億美元，比去年增加 1.75 億美元，主要反映了銷量的增加和 1.48 億美元的組合。

Volume and mix included higher military volume of $81 million, primarily related to the FLRAA program and higher commercial volume and mix of $67 million, reflecting an increase in deliveries.

數量和組合包括軍用數量增加至 8,100 萬美元，主要與 FLRAA 計劃有關，以及商業數量和組合增加至 6,700 萬美元，反映出交付量的增加。

Segment profit of $98 million was up $21 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to a favorable impact from performance of $17 million and favorable pricing, net of inflation, of $12 million.

部門利潤為 9,800 萬美元，比去年第三季增加了 2,100 萬美元，這主要是由於 1,700 萬美元的業績和 1,200 萬美元的有利定價（扣除通貨膨脹因素）的有利影響。

Backlog in the segment ended the quarter at $6.5 billion.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 65 億美元。

At Textron Systems, revenues were $301 million, down $8 million from last year's third quarter, largely due to lower volume.

德事隆系統公司的營收為 3.01 億美元，比去年第三季減少 800 萬美元，主要是由於銷量下降。

Segment profit of $39 million was down $2 million from a year ago.

部門利潤為 3,900 萬美元，比去年同期減少 200 萬美元。

Backlog in this segment ended the quarter at $1.9 billion.

本季末，該領域的積壓訂單達 19 億美元。

Industrial revenues were $840 million, down $82 million from last year's third quarter, mainly due to lower volume and mix of $86 million, principally in the Specialized Vehicles product line.

工業收入為 8.4 億美元，比去年第三季減少 8,200 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和組合減少 8,600 萬美元，主要是專用車輛產品線。

Segment profit of $32 million was down $19 million from the third quarter of 2023, primarily due to lower volume and mix.

該部門利潤為 3,200 萬美元，較 2023 年第三季減少 1,900 萬美元，主要是由於銷售和產品組合下降。

Textron eAviation segment revenues were $6 million and segment loss was $18 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared with a segment loss of $19 million in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季德事隆 eAviation 部門營收為 600 萬美元，部門虧損為 1,800 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季部門虧損為 1,900 萬美元。

Finance segment revenues were $12 million and profit was $5 million.

金融部門收入為 1,200 萬美元，利潤為 500 萬美元。

Moving below segment profit, corporate expenses were $20 million, net interest expense from the manufacturing group was $22 million, LIFO inventory provision was $49 million, intangible asset amortization was $9 million, and the non-service components of pension and post-retirement income were $66 million.

低於部門利潤，公司費用為2000 萬美元，製造集團的淨利息支出為2200 萬美元，後進先出庫存撥備為4900 萬美元，無形資產攤銷為900 萬美元，養老金和退休後收入的非服務部分為6600 萬美元。

In the quarter, we repurchased approximately 2.4 million shares, returning $215 million in cash to shareholders.

本季度，我們回購了約 240 萬股股票，向股東返還了 2.15 億美元現金。

Year-to-date, we have repurchased approximately 10.1 million shares, returning $890 million in cash to shareholders.

今年迄今，我們已回購約 1,010 萬股股票，向股東返還 8.9 億美元現金。

Textron is adjusting its full year outlook to include the expected impact of the aviation strike on its financial results.

德事隆正在調整其全年展望，以納入航空罷工對其財務表現的預期影響。

Textron now expects 2024 adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations to be in a range of $5.40 to $5.60 per share, down from its previous outlook of $6.20 to $6.40 per share.

德事隆目前預計，2024 年持續經營業務調整後每股收益將在每股 5.40 美元至 5.60 美元之間，低於先前每股 6.20 美元至 6.40 美元的預期。

Manufacturing cash flow before pension contributions is now expected to be in a range of $650 million to $750 million as compared to its previous outlook of $900 million to $1 billion, with planned pension contributions of about $50 million.

退休金繳款前的製造業現金流目前預計在 6.5 億美元至 7.5 億美元之間，而先前的預期為 9 億美元至 10 億美元，計畫退休金繳款約為 5,000 萬美元。

Looking to Aviation, we now expect total year revenue of about $5.5 billion, with an expected segment margin of around 11%.

展望航空業，我們目前預計年總收入約 55 億美元，預計分部利潤率約為 11%。

At Bell, while total year revenue outlook is unchanged, we expect an improved segment margin in the range of 10.5% to 11%.

在貝爾，雖然全年總收入前景保持不變，但我們預計部門利潤率將提高在 10.5% 至 11% 之間。

At Systems, the revenue outlook is unchanged, with a segment margin estimated at the top end or slightly above our original guidance range of 11% to 12%.

Systems 的收入前景保持不變，預計分部利潤率處於上限或略高於我們最初的指引範圍 11% 至 12%。

Looking to Industrial, we now expect revenues to be about $3.5 billion, with an expected segment margin of around 4%.

展望工業領域，我們目前預計營收約 35 億美元，預計細分市場利潤率約為 4%。

At eAviation, we now expect revenue to be about $35 million, with segment margin unchanged at a loss of around $75 million.

在 eAviation，我們現在預計收入約為 3500 萬美元，部門利潤率保持不變，虧損約為 7500 萬美元。

At Finance, we now expect revenue to be about $50 million, with segment margin of around $30 million.

在財務部門，我們現在預計收入約為 5,000 萬美元，部門利潤率約為 3,000 萬美元。

Below segment profit, we now expect corporate expenses to be around $135 million, interest expense to be about $85 million and a tax rate of 17.5%.

低於部門利潤，我們現在預計公司費用約為 1.35 億美元，利息費用約為 8,500 萬美元，稅率為 17.5%。

That concludes our prepared remarks.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。

So operator, we can open the line for questions.

那麼接線員，我們可以開通提問線路。

(Operator Instructions) David Strauss, Barclays.

（操作員說明）David Strauss，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks, and congrats, Frank and Dave.

謝謝並恭喜弗蘭克和戴夫。

Scott, could you just maybe touch on, how things are going at Aviation in terms of restarting production and kind of what have you assumed in the updated forecast for Aviation, I think, and get $5.5 billion in revenue in terms of jet deliveries?

史考特，您能否談談航空業在重新啟動生產方面的進展情況以及您在航空業最新預測中的假設，我認為，並在飛機交付方面獲得 55 億美元的收入？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Sure, David.

當然，大衛。

So look, I mean, obviously, we got the ratification last weekend, which was very important.

所以，我的意思是，顯然，我們在上週末獲得了批准，這非常重要。

Under the terms of the contract, the workforce has up to five days to come back in.

根據合約條款，員工最多有五天的時間返回。

So we are starting to ramp and get things back in place.

所以我們開始加速並讓事情恢復原狀。

I think I talked to Ron yesterday, we probably had about 60% of the workforce was back in yesterday.

我想我昨天和羅恩談過，昨天我們可能有大約 60% 的員工回來了。

We expect that to continue to ramp and clearly expect to be at full representation on Monday.

我們預計這一人數將繼續增加，並且顯然預計週一將達到全面代表人數。

So when we factor in the numbers, we kind of think about that.

因此，當我們考慮這些數字時，我們會考慮這一點。

That's why the $0.5 billion revenue drop, it's not really four weeks, it's more like a five-week strike, and then we've got to get all the ramping and get the line back up and running here as we get into fourth quarter.

這就是為什麼 5 億美元的收入下降了，這並不是真正的四個星期，而更像是五週的罷工，然後我們必須在進入第四季度時全力以赴，讓生產線恢復正常運作。

I guess I'd say, David, the good news is that's what we're focused on, right?

我想我會說，大衛，好消息是這就是我們關注的重點，對吧？

We have a five-year deal in place that's good for employees, it's good for us.

我們簽訂了一項為期五年的協議，這對員工有好處，對我們也有好處。

Our total focus right now is getting things ramped up.

我們現在的全部重點是加快工作進度。

We've spent, obviously, a lot of time here over the last four or five weeks continuing to work with our supply chains, make sure that parts are coming in and suppliers who have been late to PO are getting back to current.

顯然，在過去的四五周里，我們在這裡花了很多時間繼續與我們的供應鏈合作，確保零件及時送達，並確保遲到的採購訂單供應商恢復正常。

So our complete focus right now is getting everybody back in the door and getting the factory up and running and hopefully more efficient than it's been over the past few years as we get better part full.

因此，我們現在的全部重點是讓每個人都回到家中，讓工廠正常運轉，希望比過去幾年更有效率，因為我們的部分已滿員。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that color.

謝謝那個顏色。

And Frank, in terms of the lower forecast for free cash flow for the year, it looks like, maybe you're losing about $125 million from lower earnings.

弗蘭克，就今年自由現金流的較低預測而言，看起來您可能會因收益下降而損失約 1.25 億美元。

CapEx, I think, is a little bit lower than you had previously forecast.

我認為資本支出比您之前的預測略低一些。

What accounts for -- it looks like, $200 million of -- the additional $200 million hit on the free cash flow side?

自由現金流方面額外增加的 2 億美元（看起來是 2 億美元）是由什麼造成的？

Yeah, we're going to have some inventory headwinds associated with kind of the slower kind of ramp up here and the impact of the production.

是的，我們將面臨一些庫存阻力，這些阻力與這裡的緩慢成長和生產的影響有關。

As Scott said, it's kind of a five-week impact.

正如斯科特所說，這是一個為期五週的影響。

We want to get healthy from a supply chain standpoint.

從供應鏈的角度來看，我們希望保持健康。

So we certainly looked at kind of mitigating the cash impact of strike, but we also want to make sure that we were healthy as we come out of this.

因此，我們當然會考慮減輕罷工對現金的影響，但我們也想確保我們在走出困境時保持健康。

So that's really the impact and we'll then have that inventory obviously to burn through and sell in '25.

這就是真正的影響，然後我們顯然會在 25 年消耗掉這些庫存並出售。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Good morning, Scott, Frank and Dave, and congratulations, Frank, of course.

早安，史考特、法蘭克和戴夫，當然，恭喜法蘭克。

So just going back to the EPS cut of $0.80, I think Industrial is about $0.30, that's a headwind, but Bell is the $0.10 offset.

因此，回到 0.80 美元的 EPS 削減，我認為工業大約是 0.30 美元，這是一個逆風，但貝爾是 0.10 美元的抵消。

How do we think about, I guess, Aviation into 2024 exiting Q4, and then also Industrial, just given a 4% margin to exit the year?

我想，我們如何看待 2024 年退出第四季的航空業，以及工業界，僅給出 4% 的利潤率退出這一年？

So on the Industrial front, Sheila, we've been -- we've seen softness all year.

因此，在工業方面，希拉，我們一整年都看到了疲軟。

We've talked about that each quarter.

我們每季都會討論這個問題。

So I think as we've revised the guidance, beyond just giving color, we're trying to give you guys some specific in each one of the segments.

因此，我認為，在我們修訂指南時，除了提供顏色之外，我們還試圖為每個部分提供一些具體資訊。

And so, I think our expectation right now is that those softnesses in that end market are going to continue.

因此，我認為我們現在的預期是，終端市場的疲軟狀況將持續下去。

As we've talked about in previous quarters, we're just cutting way back on production volume.

正如我們在前幾個季度談到的那樣，我們只是大幅削減產量。

We don't want to put stuff out in the channel.

我們不想把東西放到頻道裡。

I don't think deal is one thing is in the channel until we get better perspective and view on where things are going in terms of interest rates and their end market.

我認為，在我們對利率及其最終市場的發展有更好的看法和看法之前，交易並不是正在發生的一件事。

So I think this was just -- we're just kind of firming up our view on the total guide on that segment.

所以我認為這只是——我們只是堅定了我們對該部分總體指南的看法。

The bigger issue for us, obviously, is we've got to get the Aviation business ramped back up again here.

顯然，對我們來說更大的問題是我們必須讓航空業務再次恢復成長。

As Frank talked about, given the sort of delays in some of these deliveries, we're going to certainly carry out more inventory through the end of the year of work in process than we would normally have coming out of the Q4.

正如弗蘭克所說，考慮到其中一些交付的延遲，我們肯定會在今年年底進行在製品庫存比第四季正常情況更多的庫存。

But I guess, it's important to note these sales aren't lost, right?

但我想，重要的是要注意這些銷售並沒有遺失，對吧？

I mean, these are pushed and we're going to ultimately deliver these aircrafts.

我的意思是，這些都是推動的，我們最終將交付這些飛機。

So as we think about 2025, we clearly expect we're going to see revenue progression over what our original 2024 guide was.

因此，當我們考慮 2025 年時，我們顯然預計收入將比我們最初的 2024 年指南有所增長。

We're continuing to ramp.

我們正在繼續加速。

And I think now with the contract behind us, we're optimistic about seeing more stability in the workforce, clearly a better position on supplier parts.

我認為現在合約簽訂後，我們樂觀地看到勞動力更加穩定，供應商零件顯然處於更好的地位。

And it's tough to recover all that in one quarter, but I think we'll have good momentum as we go into 2025.

在一個季度內恢復所有這些是很困難的，但我認為進入 2025 年我們將擁有良好的勢頭。

And just on the contract, how do we think about the headwind in 2025 as we factor in the wage increase?

就合約而言，當我們考慮到薪資成長時，我們如何看待 2025 年的逆風？

Well, that was largely baked into our plans.

嗯，這很大程度上已納入我們的計劃中。

The deal was a little bit more than we expected, but it's -- direct labor is about 10% of our costs.

這筆交易比我們預期的要多一點，但直接勞動力約占我們成本的 10%。

So I mean our focus at this point will be making sure we can drive the right productivity and efficiency to compensate for that.

所以我的意思是，我們目前的重點將是確保我們能夠提高適當的生產力和效率來彌補這一點。

But I think it's a fair deal.

但我認為這是一筆公平的交易。

It's good for our employees.

這對我們的員工有好處。

And our view is we want these to be the best jobs in town.

我們的觀點是，我們希望這些能成為城裡最好的工作。

We think this is a hugely important workforce.

我們認為這是一支非常重要的勞動力隊伍。

We need good people.

我們需要好人。

We need to retain them, and we'd like to be that best job.

我們需要留住他們，我們希望成為最好的工作。

And I think this makes us the best job in town.

我認為這使我們成為城裡最好的工作。

So it's a good trade for us.

所以這對我們來說是一筆很好的交易。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just want to follow-up on David's question really and the recovery plan.

只是想跟進大衛的問題和恢復計劃。

It sounds like you've taken a fairly proactive approach to managing the supply chain that you haven't turned anyone off.

聽起來您已經採取了相當積極主動的方法來管理供應鏈，並且沒有讓任何人失望。

In fact, you just kept things going and you've built up this inventory.

事實上，你只是讓事情繼續下去，你就已經建立了這個庫存。

Is that a fair analysis?

這是一個公平的分析嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, I mean, in part shortages, while it has improved over the last few years, has still been problematic, I think, for everybody in the industry.

我的意思是，部分短缺問題雖然在過去幾年有所改善，但我認為對於該行業的每個人來說仍然是一個問題。

It's gotten to be a smaller number of part numbers that are a problem, but they're still a problem.

問題在於零件數量的減少，但它們仍然是一個問題。

And that was continuing to drive a lot of out-of-station work and just significant inefficiencies in the factory.

這繼續導致大量異地工作，導致工廠效率顯著低下。

So our view was, look, nobody wins a strike.

所以我們的觀點是，看，沒有人能贏得罷工。

A strike is not a good thing, but we certainly, during the period of the strike, were committed to go continue to work with those suppliers and try to resolve that problem.

罷工不是一件好事，但我們當然在罷工期間承諾繼續與這些供應商合作並努力解決這個問題。

So again, from our perspective, this is all about how you move forward and expecting we'll get the workforce back in, which is now happening, that we would put ourselves in a better situation in terms of parts and back shops and these things so that we can be more efficient going forward.

因此，從我們的角度來看，這完全取決於您如何前進並期望我們讓勞動力重新回歸，這正在發生，我們將使自己在零件和後勤商店等方面處於更好的境地以便我們能夠更加高效地前進。

So yeah, that's going to cost a little bit of inventory, but all that inventory is going to turn into airplanes.

所以，是的，這會花費一點庫存，但所有庫存都會變成飛機。

So I'm not particularly worried about that.

所以我對此並不特別擔心。

Okay.

好的。

And then, as a follow-up on Industrial, you mentioned that Specialty Vehicles have been having some demand challenges.

然後，作為工業的後續行動，您提到特種車輛一直面臨一些需求挑戰。

What about at Kautex?

考泰斯怎麼樣？

Have you seen any softening on the European auto front?

您是否看到歐洲汽車市場出現軟化？

Well, for sure, we have.

嗯，當然，我們有。

I mean, auto is down around the world.

我的意思是，世界各地的汽車都在下滑。

European is probably the most challenged market, so the volumes are somewhat below where we would like them to be, but frankly, that team does a really good job of managing through and dealing with that and offsetting with productivity and pricing.

歐洲可能是最具挑戰性的市場，因此銷量略低於我們希望的水平，但坦白說，該團隊在管理和處理這一問題以及透過生產力和定價進行抵消方面做得非常好。

And so, I think the Kautex guys actually have been performing quite well.

因此，我認為考特斯的員工實際上表現得相當不錯。

Okay.

好的。

That's great.

那太棒了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Peter Arment, Baird.

彼得·阿門特，貝爾德。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, Scott.

早安，史考特。

Congrats, Frank and Dave.

恭喜法蘭克和戴夫。

Hey, Scott, maybe just to talk about, just on the heels of NBAA, you guys obviously saw some nice bookings this quarter.

嘿，斯科特，也許只是談談，緊接著 NBAA，你們顯然在本季度看到了一些不錯的預訂。

Can you talk maybe just about what you're seeing on the demand environment?

您能談談您在需求環境中看到的情況嗎？

It still seems obviously very favorable for a lot of your models.

對於你們的許多模型來說，它顯然仍然非常有利。

Yeah, Peter, I think it has.

是的，彼得，我想是的。

I mean, we had over $1 billion here in Q3.

我的意思是，我們第三季的資金超過 10 億美元。

As you know, Q3 is usually historically one of the lighter ones, right?

如您所知，Q3 通常是歷史上較輕的之一，對吧？

The summer, July, August is kind of usually quieter.

夏天，七月，八月通常比較安靜。

I think it was a good quarter of order activity.

我認為這是一個訂單活動良好的季度。

We're very encouraged, the refreshes that the team is putting out in both M2, CJ3, the new CJ4.

我們對團隊在 M2、CJ3 和新 CJ4 中推出的更新感到非常鼓舞。

Of course, we have the Ascend, which we announced too long.

當然，我們還有 Ascend，但我們宣布的時間太長了。

That's coming along very well.

進展順利。

So the number of updates, which are pretty significant in terms of capability of the aircraft and safety, particularly with launching Autoland across all those single pilot jet platforms is driving strong demand.

因此，更新的數量在飛機的能力和安全性方面相當重要，特別是在所有這些單一飛行員噴射機平台上推出 Autoland 後，推動了強勁的需求。

So I think the end market continues to feel good.

所以我認為終端市場繼續感覺良好。

Order activity is -- flow is good.

訂單活躍度良好。

So I think we're still feeling good about where the industry is.

所以我認為我們仍然對該行業的現狀感到滿意。

Yeah.

是的。

And just as a follow-up, on pricing, I guess, net of inflation, you guys have done pretty well all year.

作為後續行動，在定價方面，我想，扣除通貨膨脹因素，你們這一整年都做得很好。

What's the latest there, I just -- I assume, given that the demand environment is healthy?

考慮到需求環境是健康的，我認為最新的情況是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Pricing is still good, Peter, in the marketplace, but as we've talked about, I think the price inflation number is compressing, right?

彼得，市場上的定價仍然不錯，但正如我們所討論的，我認為價格通膨數字正在壓縮，對嗎？

I mean, so I would not expect to see big contributions in necessarily price over inflation.

我的意思是，所以我不希望看到價格對通膨的巨大貢獻。

What we really got to be doing is driving productivity and efficiency in the factories to continue to maintain that momentum.

我們真正要做的是提高工廠的生產力和效率，以繼續保持這種勢頭。

So the pricing dynamic is good, that's not a problem, but you had these pretty significant price inflation spreads.

因此，定價動態良好，這不是問題，但價格通膨利差相當大。

And again, that will -- as we talked about before, that will be coming down, but we're not banking on that to drive the kind of margin and performance that we need to see going forward.

再說一遍，正如我們之前談到的，這將會下降，但我們並不指望它來推動我們未來需要看到的利潤和業績。

We've really got to drive good fashion productivity and efficiencies on that volume.

我們確實必須在該數量上提高時尚生產力和效率。

The only thing I'd add on that is for this quarter and next quarter with the lower volume, which is where price comes through and essentially inflation across all aspects of the cost structure, not just the aircraft, but SG&A and other things, that puts pressure on price versus net of inflation.

我唯一要補充的是，本季和下季的銷售量較低，這是價格的體現，本質上是成本結構各個方面的通貨膨脹，不僅是飛機，還有銷售、行政管理和其他方面，對扣除通貨膨脹後的價格造成壓力。

So for this quarter, it's net zero price, but that is certainly impacted by the lower volume associated with the strike and that will have an impact on the price versus inflation on a net basis in the fourth quarter as well.

因此，本季的淨價格為零，但這肯定受到與罷工相關的成交量下降的影響，這也會對第四季度的淨價格與通貨膨脹產生影響。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的顏色。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Frank, congrats on the retirement.

弗蘭克，恭喜你退休。

Thanks for all the help and the relationship over the years.

感謝多年來的所有幫助和關係。

And David, congrats on the move to the CFO.

大衛，恭喜你晉升為財務長。

How many Cessna jet deliveries are we expecting in the fourth quarter given the abnormal backdrop with the strike and the recovery?

鑑於罷工和復甦的異常背景，我們預計第四季度將交付多少架塞斯納噴射機？

Well, Noah, I mean, we've never given a number of jets.

嗯，諾亞，我的意思是，我們從來沒有提供過多少架飛機。

So I think we'll probably just stick to revenue at this stage of the game.

所以我認為我們可能會在遊戲的這個階段堅持收入。

But I mean, it's $0.5 billion of revenue obviously adjustment, which is pretty significant, but yeah, I think that accounts for what's turning out to be really a kind of a five-week strike duration and then just the inefficiencies and just the time of getting it ramped back up and going.

但我的意思是，這顯然是5 億美元的收入調整，這是相當重要的，但是，是的，我認為這解釋了實際上是一種為期五週的罷工持續時間，然後只是低效率和時間讓它重新啟動並繼續運行。

Okay.

好的。

And Scott, I guess, in 2025, should we anticipate that Jan 1, when you're starting a year, you're pretty much recovered and it's a clean run rate production line, or could there be disruption that bleeds into the beginning of the year?

史考特，我想，到2025 年，我們是否應該預計到1 月1 日，當你開始新的一年時，你已經基本康復，這是一條乾淨的運行率生產線，或者是否會出現中斷，滲透到新的一年的開始。

And then, should we expect the aircraft that slip out of '24 to add what you previously had planned for '25, or does it kind of smooth out over a longer period of time?

然後，我們是否應該期望 24 年淘汰的飛機能夠增加您之前為 25 年計劃的飛機，或者它是否會在較長一段時間內趨於平穩？

Well, so first of all, we certainly expect by January 1, we're running at normal productivity and a smooth rate.

嗯，首先，我們當然希望到 1 月 1 日，我們能夠以正常的生產力和平穩的速度運作。

I mean, we're here in kind of late October, we've got November, December here to get things ramped and operating smoothly.

我的意思是，我們在 10 月底到達這裡，我們還有 11 月、12 月在這裡讓事情加速並順利運行。

So I certainly expect by the start of the year, the factory will be stable and doing well.

所以我當然預計到今年年初，工廠將會穩定且運作良好。

I guess, it will -- I mean, we're kind of probably not ready to guide 2025 yet, but as I said, no, I do think if you look at what we're doing in production ramp and our expectations in terms of where we're going to be in 2025, while the 2024 is obviously an issue and impacted, we certainly expect to see good healthy revenue growth in '25 above what we had originally guided in '24.

我想，它會——我的意思是，我們可能還沒有準備好指導 2025 年，但正如我所說，不，我確實認為如果你看看我們在產量提升方面所做的事情以及我們的期望我們將在2025 年實現目標，而2024 年顯然是一個問題並受到影響，但我們當然預計25 年收入將實現良好健康成長，高於我們24 年最初的指導價值。

Okay.

好的。

And then, just lastly on the margin, at Aviation, should we all just continue to contemplate the incremental margin framework you've referenced in the past, or is cost now different enough, or is there still a lot of opportunity on the productivity front?

然後，最後在航空業的邊際上，我們是否應該繼續考慮您過去提到的增量邊際框架，或者現在的成本是否足夠不同，或者在生產力方面是否仍然存在許多機會？

How should we be thinking about that over the medium term?

從中期來看，我們該如何考慮這個問題？

Look, we still think about this business as converting at 20%-plus in terms of revenue given the kind of the mix of gross margin across the business.

看，考慮到整個業務的毛利率組合，我們仍然認為該業務的收入轉換率為 20% 以上。

So that's still, I think, an appropriate long-term guide.

因此，我認為這仍然是一個合適的長期指南。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I was wondering if you could talk to Systems, and you mentioned the two contracts that are being decided next year, FTUAS and the Robotic Combat Vehicle.

我想知道您是否可以與 Systems 交談，您提到了明年即將決定的兩項合約：FTUAS 和機器人戰車。

Is an outcome on those basically going to dictate whether or not Systems can start a real growth profile?

這些結果是否基本上將決定係統是否可以開始真正的成長概況？

It's been obviously flattish here for a long, long time.

這裡顯然已經很平坦了很長一段時間了。

And how critical are those two programs?

這兩個計劃有多重要？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，絕對是。

Look, I mean, these are programs that we've been investing for a long time to position ourselves.

聽著，我的意思是，這些都是我們長期以來為了定位自己而投資的項目。

They are key factors of driving growth for the business in the future.

它們是推動未來業務成長的關鍵因素。

There's other programs, obviously.

顯然還有其他程序。

In fact, I think, frankly, if you look at 2024, that business is performing extraordinarily well.

事實上，坦白說，如果你看看 2024 年，你會發現該業務的表現非常好。

We did take a hit at the beginning of the year, which we did not anticipate around Machado getting pulled out of service.

我們在今年年初確實受到了打擊，我們沒有預料到馬查多會退休。

Other businesses within systems over the course of the year have grown to help to offset that.

今年系統內的其他業務也有所成長，以幫助抵消這種影響。

And as we said, even with that hit, which was not trivial to us, the businesses are hitting their original guide in terms of revenue, and they're going to be on the high side of their margin.

正如我們所說，即使受到了這種對我們來說並非小事的打擊，這些企業的收入仍達到了最初的目標，而且他們的利潤率將處於較高水平。

So I think the Systems team is performing very well.

所以我認為系統團隊表現得非常好。

But yeah, absolutely, those programs like FTUAS and like RCV and of course, there's ARV in the year out and such are key drivers of growth in the future.

但是，是的，當然，像 FTUAS 和 RCV 這樣的項目，當然，今年還有 ARV，這些都是未來成長的關鍵驅動力。

Okay.

好的。

And just one quick one.

只是一個快速的。

Is the 525 still on track for 4Q cert, or is that slipping into '25?

525 仍有望獲得 4Q 認證，還是會滑入 25 年？

We're actually just down there yesterday.

實際上我們昨天才到那裡。

Look, the flight test program is continuing.

看，飛行測試計劃還在繼續。

I hate to put dates out there because we don't certify that, right?

我討厭把日期放在那裡，因為我們沒有證實這一點，對嗎？

I mean, it's -- I'd say the relationship and the work going on with FAA is good.

我的意思是，我想說，與美國聯邦航空局的關係和正在進行的工作是良好的。

Flight test program is going well.

飛行測試計畫進展順利。

Whether it gets this year, if I were to guess, I would probably say it would slip into 2025 just because of just the sheer amount of documentation and paperwork and number of approvals that need to flow through -- before the official TC gets put on there.

無論是在今年，如果我猜的話，我可能會說它會推遲到 2025 年，因為在官方 TC 上線之前需要經過大量的文件和文書工作以及批准數量那裡。

So we continue to do the work on the flight test and all the work that we have to do on our side.

所以我們繼續做飛行測試的工作以及我們這邊必須做的所有工作。

And of course, we're already moving a lot of resource into various kits and capabilities that need to be added on to the aircraft over its life cycle.

當然，我們已經將大量資源轉移到各種套件和功能中，這些套件和功能需要在飛機的生命週期中添加到其中。

So -- and that work will go on in parallel with this certification process.

因此，這項工作將與認證過程同時進行。

All right.

好的。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Hey.

嘿。

Thanks very much, and good morning.

非常感謝，早安。

And congratulations, Frank and Dave.

恭喜法蘭克和戴夫。

Wanted to ask about the margin in Aviation.

想問一下航空業的利潤率。

And so, ex the strike, it looks like it was kind of in the mid-11% range, which was kind of below the guidance range for the year.

因此，除去罷工因素，看起來是在 11% 的中間範圍內，這有點低於今年的指導範圍。

I know there's variability quarter to quarter and you talked about Q2 being exceptionally strong, but just anything to point out there with regard to why we saw kind of a step down there versus what we've become accustomed to seeing in recent quarters?

我知道每個季度都有變化，您談到第二季度異常強勁，但有什麼可以指出的，為什麼我們看到那裡的情況與我們最近幾個季度習慣看到的情況相比有所下降？

Well, look, I mean the strikes are a bit messy, right, when you go back and you look at idle facility and impacts and total year volumes and assumed overhead rates and liquidation rates.

好吧，聽著，我的意思是，罷工有點混亂，對吧，當你回去看看閒置設施和影響、全年總量以及假設的間接費用和清算率時。

So part of what you're seeing in the quarter and the year is you've got to factor in a lot of significantly lower volume all of a sudden with a lot of cost, which some of which is not variable.

因此，您在本季度和本年度看到的部分情況是，您必須考慮到銷量突然大幅下降以及大量成本，其中一些成本是不變的。

And so that's part of why you see that drag in the -- in both Q3 as well as in our updated guidance for the full year.

因此，這就是為什麼您在第三季以及我們更新的全年指引中看到這種拖累的部分原因。

Okay.

好的。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, I guess, maybe thinking about the margin at Bell and profitability coming in ahead of expectations this year, as FLRAA continues to grow, is this something where you can kind of continue to maybe see some improvement here, given performance elsewhere, or should we still be thinking about maybe profit dollar growth but margin rate declines?

然後，我想，也許考慮到貝爾今年的利潤率和盈利能力將超出預期，隨著 FLRAA 的持續增長，考慮到其他地方的表現，你是否可以繼續在這裡看到一些改進，或者我們是否仍然應該考慮利潤美元成長但利潤率下降？

Yeah, look, we're still trying to drive the profit dollar growth.

是的，你看，我們仍在努力推動利潤成長。

The FLRAA program is growing and will continue to grow next year fairly significantly, which is great obviously, but that is, as you know, had a lower margin mix.

FLRAA 計劃正在增長，並將在明年繼續顯著增長，這顯然很棒，但如您所知，該計劃的利潤率較低。

But the commercial market is strong, so that's helpful to us.

但商業市場很強大，所以這對我們很有幫助。

The win in Nigeria, which is actually going to grow the H1 original equipment volumes here over the next couple of two, three years is obviously helpful.

在尼日利亞的勝利實際上將在未來兩三年內增加這裡的 H1 原始設備數量，這顯然是有幫助的。

So there are some things in there mix wise that are helping.

因此，其中有些東西混合在一起是有幫助的。

But again, I still think given the significant growth of the FLRAA program, our focus really is how do we continue to be accretive and make sure that we're growing the margin dollars in these subsequent years.

但我仍然認為，鑑於 FLRAA 計劃的顯著增長，我們的重點實際上是如何繼續增值並確保我們在接下來的幾年中增加利潤。

Excellent.

出色的。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you.

謝謝。

And also congrats to Frank and Dave.

也祝賀法蘭克和戴夫。

If you look forward from here, say over the next five years, and thinking about what you're going to be investing in on the Aviation side with respect to R&D and CapEx, how do you see that profile evolving?

如果您從現在開始展望未來五年，並考慮您將在航空方面的研發和資本支出方面進行投資，您如何看待這種情況的演變？

And are there specific areas where you really intend to be focusing there?

您確實打算專注於哪些特定領域？

Well, look, I mean, I think that I don't see us making a big change.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為我們不會做出重大改變。

I think what we've been doing for the last number of years and I would expect we continue to do in the future is a nice mix of upgrade programs to our existing portfolio, which, as we talked about earlier, drives healthy growth and is very well received, I'd say, on the customer front, with an occasional new product clean sheet that drops in.

我認為我們過去幾年一直在做的事情以及我希望我們在未來繼續做的事情是對我們現有產品組合進行升級計劃的完美組合，正如我們之前談到的，這推動了健康增長，並且我想說，在客戶方面非常受歡迎，偶爾會有新產品乾淨的表出現。

So that piece of formula that has worked for us, and I think we'll continue to make that.

所以這個公式對我們有用，我想我們會繼續這樣做。

From an R&D perspective, we've talked about kind of making this at or a slight tailwind in terms of on a percent of sales basis.

從研發的角度來看，我們已經討論過在銷售額百分比方面使其處於或略微順風。

Part of our margin challenge towards the end of the year is we've -- you assume that you're -- what you're doing on the R&D front is fairly fixed over the course of the year.

我們在年底面臨的利潤挑戰的一部分是我們——你假設你——你在研發方面所做的事情在這一年中是相當固定的。

So if you lose a big chunk of revenue, obviously, on a strike, that kind of hurts you a little bit, but I mean, that's an unusual circumstance, obviously.

因此，如果你在罷工中損失了一大筆收入，顯然會對你造成一點傷害，但我的意思是，這顯然是一種不尋常的情況。

So I think we'll see fairly stable R&D, and we'll raise appropriately when we have the right programs to invest, but I'd say, generally speaking, we view that it should be a tailwind in terms of percent of sales for the business while making the right investments to keep growing the business.

因此，我認為我們將看到相當穩定的研發，當我們有合適的投資計劃時，我們會適當地提高資金，但我想說，一般來說，我們認為這應該是銷售額百分比方面的順風車業務，同時進行正確的投資以保持業務成長。

And then separately, when we go into 2025 and if we put the strike aside for the moment, you said that during the strike you've been able to make some progress with respect to the supply chain.

另外，當我們進入 2025 年時，如果我們暫時擱置罷工，您說在罷工期間您已經能夠在供應鏈方面取得一些進展。

It seemed that really the limiting factor for you in Aviation is not demand, it is really -- it may be really just the supply chain.

看來航空業真正的限制因素不是需求，而是供應鏈。

So if you've been able to narrow some -- the issues within the supply chain, can you describe where the bottlenecks are now, the principal bottlenecks?

因此，如果您能夠縮小供應鏈內的一些問題，您能否描述一下現在的瓶頸、主要瓶頸在哪裡？

And if there's a point you see where you think you can get back to a world where the limiting factor is no longer dealing with the supplier issues?

如果您認為在某個時刻您可以回到限制因素不再是處理供應商問題的世界？

Well, I think the limiting factor -- I mean, there has been some critical supply things.

嗯，我認為限制因素——我的意思是，存在一些關鍵的供應問題。

It's been our own resourcing and staffing and the ramp, but as I said, I think when I think about how you look at 2025, despite the interruptions that we've had here in 2024, I think our plans in terms of expanding capacity and delivering more product, increasing our revenue that, that thesis is still on track.

這是我們自己的資源配置、人員配置和坡道，但正如我所說，我認為當我考慮如何看待 2025 年時，儘管我們在 2024 年遇到了中斷，但我認為我們在擴大產能和提供更多產品，增加我們的收入，論文仍在正軌上。

You'll see that in 2025 despite the fact that we have an interruption in production here in 2024.

儘管我們在 2024 年生產中斷，但您會在 2025 年看到這一點。

So we have had a ramp plan that was coordinated with suppliers and our own internal resourcing and staffing.

因此，我們制定了與供應商以及我們自己的內部資源和人員配置協調的斜坡計劃。

And I think that's still in place and that's why you should expect that we'll see revenue growth in '25 above the '24 original guidance.

我認為這仍然存在，這就是為什麼你應該預期我們將在 25 年看到收入成長高於 24 年最初的指引。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Frank, congrats on -- and good luck with the next phase.

弗蘭克，恭喜——祝下一階段好運。

And Dave, congratulations.

戴夫，恭喜你。

Well deserved.

當之無愧。

I look forward to working with you more closely in that role.

我期待著在這個職位上與您更密切地合作。

Scott, couple of quick questions for you.

史考特，有幾個簡單的問題想問你。

You mentioned labor productivity earlier as a way to offset maybe some of the higher costs associated with the strike.

您之前提到勞動生產力可能是抵銷與罷工相關的一些較高成本的一種方式。

I'm just curious if you can make some bigger picture generalized comments about labor productivity maybe now versus where we were prior to the pandemic and kind of the things that you are doing to drive labor productivity back to maybe where we were if it was better back then, and how much longer do you think it takes for labor productivity to kind of return to historic levels?

我只是好奇您是否可以對現在的勞動生產力與大流行之前的情況進行一些更宏觀的概括性評論，以及您正在做的一些事情，以將勞動生產力拉回到我們原來的水平（如果情況更好的話）當時，您認為勞動生產力需要多長時間才能恢復到歷史水準？

Well, look, there were two major contributors to the inefficiencies, which certainly manifest themselves largely in productivity in the factory.

嗯，看，造成效率低下的主要原因有兩個，這當然主要體現在工廠的生產力上。

Part of it was certainly supplier parts.

其中一部分肯定是供應商零件。

When you're looking at running a production line, you've got lots of holes in your part bin, you start doing stuff that's out of sequence and having to rework things and swap things between aircraft and there's a lot of disruption that comes from that.

當您考慮運行一條生產線時，您的零件箱上有很多洞，您開始做不按順序進行的事情，並且必須返工並在飛機之間交換東西，並且會產生很多幹擾那。

As I said, I think while it won't be perfect, what we did work through the strike period to try to get the on time to PO and supplier delivery to where we have many, many, many fewer of these instances where we don't have the part available at the time that we need to consume that part in the various stages of the production line.

正如我所說，我認為雖然這不會是完美的，但我們在罷工期間所做的工作是為了盡量按時到達採購訂單和供應商交貨，這樣我們就可以減少很多很多很多這樣的情況當我們需要在生產線的各個階段消耗該零件時，沒有可用的零件。

The other, frankly, is just sheer labor, right?

坦白說，另一個只是純粹的勞動，對嗎？

I mean, like most companies, coming out of COVID, we saw a lot of turnover.

我的意思是，像大多數公司一樣，從新冠疫情走出來後，我們看到了大量的人員流動。

We have a lot of hiring of new people, so there's been a lot of training, and clearly that drives a lot of inefficiencies.

我們僱用了大量新員工，因此進行了大量培訓，顯然這導致了效率低下。

It's not just that new person, it's our senior people who participate in helping to train and develop these new people.

不僅是新人，還有我們的資深人員參與幫助培訓和發展這些新人。

So I do think that the labor contract and getting that behind us, and yeah, it's a significant GWI, but it makes these jobs even more attractive in that market, which we think is -- makes us as an employer more attractive and hopefully stronger on the retention side.

所以我確實認為勞動合約並把它拋在我們身後，是的，這是一個重要的GWI，但它使這些工作在該市場上更具吸引力，我們認為，這使我們作為雇主更具吸引力，並有望變得更強大在保留側。

So stabilizing that, not just adding the numbers of people, but getting it towards a stable number, and it's the same people that are coming in, is a huge part of that.

因此，穩定這一點，不僅僅是增加人數，而是使其達到一個穩定的數字，而且進來的人是同樣的人，這是其中一個重要的部分。

So I think the parts thing, I feel much better about.

所以我認為零件的事情，我感覺好多了。

We worked out really hard over the last month or so to get that in a much healthier place.

在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們非常努力地鍛煉，以使其變得更加健康。

And again, I think with the GWIs that are out there, these are the best jobs in town.

再說一次，我認為對 GWI 來說，這些是城裡最好的工作。

And I think that will help us not just attract, but also retain that hourly workforce that builds these aircraft, which is critical to driving that efficiency and productivity in our factory.

我認為這不僅有助於我們吸引、而且還能留住製造這些飛機的小時工，這對於提高我們工廠的效率和生產力至關重要。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, the second question was, just more of a maybe a philosophical one.

然後，第二個問題是，也許更多的是一個哲學問題。

If you could waive a magic wand, and always have this be the case, I know this is difficult to control, but kind of months of backlog in the Aviation business, what is the North Star for you all?

如果你能放棄一根魔杖，並且總是出現這種情況，我知道這很難控制，但是航空業務積壓了幾個月，北極星對你們來說是什麼？

What do you -- where would you like to try to manage the business to on a pretty consistent basis over the longer term?

從長遠來看，您希望在哪些方面嘗試以相當一致的方式管理業務？

Well, look, if you look at, it's a little bit different across different products in our product portfolio, but I would say, generally speaking, being out there 18, 24 months is a very healthy place for us to be for a couple of reasons.

好吧，如果你看一下，我們的產品組合中不同的產品有點不同，但我想說，一般來說，對於我們來說，18、24 個月是一個非常健康的狀態。

One, many of our customers already own aircraft and their ability to remarket their aircraft and manage and have a -- know what their timeline is and when a window of time to go sell their aircraft is important.

第一，我們的許多客戶已經擁有飛機，並且有能力重新銷售其飛機並進行管理和了解他們的時間表以及何時出售飛機很重要。

And it also gives us the right amount of time to specify aircraft and interiors and go through a very smooth process where we know when that aircraft hit the line, what is that aircraft, right?

它還為我們提供了適當的時間來指定飛機和內飾，並經歷一個非常順利的過程，我們知道飛機何時到達生產線，那是什麼飛機，對嗎？

What's the configuration?

什麼配置？

A lot of stuff is standard, obviously, but there are customizations that happen towards the latter part of the process.

顯然，很多東西都是標準的，但在流程的後半部分會發生一些客製化。

And having that all set and well understood, being able to signal and have a consistent volume and delivery dates with our suppliers, I mean, it really helps to make a business where it can run smoothly when you can see out that 18 to 24 months on volumes and product mix and product configuration.

在一切就緒並得到充分理解後，能夠向供應商發出信號並保持一致的數量和交貨日期，我的意思是，當您可以看到 18 至 24 個月時，這確實有助於使業務順利運行關於產量、產品組合和產品配置。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Appreciate it, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

And Frank and Dave, congrats.

法蘭克和戴夫，恭喜。

Just wanted to ask a couple of margin questions.

只是想問幾個關於保證金的問題。

On Industrial, are you still seeing some benefit of the restructuring, or is that largely already in place at this point?

在工業方面，您是否仍然看到重組帶來的一些好處，或者目前基本上已經到位？

Well, I mean, I think, clearly, we've been restructuring through the course of the year, but I'd say there's more restructuring to come, for sure.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為，很明顯，我們在這一年中一直在進行重組，但我想說，肯定還會有更多的重組。

I think the end markets, and particularly in a couple of segments of the business, are continuing to be soft, and I think they're going to be soft for a little while.

我認為終端市場，特別是幾個業務領域，繼續疲軟，我認為它們會持續疲軟一段時間。

So we'll continue to do what we think is appropriate to restructure and maximize our performance in each of those business segments.

因此，我們將繼續採取我們認為適當的措施來重組並最大限度地提高我們在每個業務部門的績效。

Got it.

知道了。

And on Aviation, can you just remind us how the performance accounting line works?

在航空方面，您能提醒我們績效會計線是如何運作的嗎？

If you have cost on aircraft this year that deliver next year, do we expect some margin headwind there?

如果今年飛機的成本是明年交付的，我們是否預計會出現利潤逆風？

The performance line is -- there's a lot of stuff in performance line.

性能線是－性能線中有很多東西。

I don't know if I could walk through it.

我不知道我能不能走過去。

I mean, clearly, this quarter and for the full year, you've got unusual things in there, right?

我的意思是，很明顯，這個季度和全年，你都有不尋常的事情，對吧？

I mean, factory inefficiency, period expensing, idle factory costs, which is not a normal thing for us, obviously, manufacturing variances go through that, there's a lot of moving parts in that so-called performance line.

我的意思是，工廠效率低下、期間費用、閒置工廠成本，這對我們來說不是正常的事情，顯然，製造差異會經歷這些，在所謂的性能線中有很多移動部件。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Peter Skibitski, Alembic.

彼得·斯基比特斯基，蒸餾器。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

I was wondering if we go back to FLRAA now that you had the Milestone B approval, I just wonder if you could put a finer point on the revenue line since it's so substantial.

我想知道既然您已經獲得了里程碑 B 的批准，我們是否可以回到 FLRAA，我只是想知道您是否可以對收入線提出更具體的觀點，因為它是如此之大。

I think last I recall, you were thinking about $900 million in revenue this year.

我想上次我記得，您考慮的是今年 9 億美元的收入。

And Scott, you're talking about substantial increase next year.

斯科特，你正在談論明年的大幅成長。

Is there any way to put a finer point on that?

有什麼辦法可以對此提出更好的觀點嗎？

Pete, I think $900 million is probably around the right number this year.

皮特，我認為今年 9 億美元可能是合適的數字。

It's probably going to be $100 million to $200 million higher than that next year, just based on what's in the budget.

僅根據預算，可能會比明年多出 1 億至 2 億美元。

So I mean, I'm a little bit -- I always try to be a little careful here, Pete.

所以我的意思是，我有點——我總是盡量小心一點，皮特。

I mean, these things are appropriated, right?

我的意思是，這些東西都被挪用了，對吧？

They're not appropriated yet.

他們還沒有被挪用。

I mean, we don't actually have a budget.

我的意思是，我們實際上沒有預算。

But I -- if you look at what's in the appropriations process, I guess, once they pass the budget, I would expect that we'll see some additional ramp as we go into next year.

但我——如果你看看撥款過程中的內容，我想，一旦他們通過了預算，我預計明年進入時我們會看到一些額外的增長。

And I think there's talk to the Army, there's full support for this.

我認為已經與陸軍進行了交談，並得到了全力支持。

I mean, obviously, the criticality of getting through CDR is huge.

我的意思是，顯然，透過 CDR 的重要性是巨大的。

And so, I think the customer is just as committed as we are to keep driving this thing forward, and that will -- that only happens with some increased funding next year, and I think everybody is on board with that.

因此，我認為客戶和我們一樣致力於繼續推動這件事向前發展，而這只有在明年增加一些資金的情況下才會發生，我認為每個人都同意這一點。

Okay.

好的。

No, I appreciate it.

不，我很感激。

And then just the decision to in-source the cabin from Spirit, what's the right way to think about sort of the technical and the schedule risk there?

然後就決定從 Spirit 購買機艙，考慮那裡的技術和進度風險的正確方法是什麼？

Obviously, it's probably easier than if you were kind of midstream in production, but can you give us a sense of how you guys are viewing that decision?

顯然，這可能比你在生產中處於中游要容易一些，但是你能讓我們了解一下你們如何看待這個決定嗎？

Well, look, I think that the -- as you kind of know, Peter, given the status of where that was, right, kind of just starting EMD, made it a fairly low risk, easy process to execute.

好吧，看，我認為 - 正如你所知，彼得，考慮到 EMD 剛剛啟動的狀態，使其成為一個風險相當低、易於執行的流程。

The Spirit team was highly collaborative and worked very, very closely with us in that process, and it's done.

Spirit 團隊高度協作，在這個過程中與我們非常非常密切地合作，現在一切都完成了。

So we're focused on going forward.

所以我們專注於前進。

We're executing to that.

我們正在執行這一點。

And so far, so good.

到目前為止，一切都很好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have no further questions in queue at this time.

目前我們沒有其他問題在排隊。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

This does conclude the conference for today.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。