德州儀器 (TXN) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments Q2 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. Please note that today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加德州儀器 2021 年第二季財報發布電話會議。請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。現在，我想將會議交給 Dave Pahl。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第二季財報電話會議。對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，您可以透過我們的網站存取。重播將透過網路提供。本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的績效與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的前瞻性聲明的通知，以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

Our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi is with me today, and we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results, with more details than usual by end market, including some sequential performance since it's more informative at this time. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, some insight into one-time items and our guidance for the third quarter of 2021.

我們的財務長 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將簡要概述一下本季的情況。接下來，我將深入了解第二季度的收入結果，並提供比平時更詳細的終端市場信息，包括一些連續的表現，因為此時這些信息更具參考價值。最後，拉斐爾將介紹財務業績、一些一次性項目的見解以及我們對 2021 年第三季的指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the second quarter: Revenue in the quarter was $4.6 billion, an increase of 7% sequentially and 41% year over year, driven by strong demand in industrial, automotive and personal electronics. On a sequential basis, Analog grew 6% and Embedded Processing grew 2%. On a year-over-year basis, Analog grew 42% and Embedded grew 43%. Our "Other" segment grew 30% from the year-ago quarter.

首先簡要概述第二季：受工業、汽車和個人電子產品強勁需求的推動，本季營收為 46 億美元，季增 7%，較去年同期成長 41%。以環比計算，模擬成長 6%，嵌入式處理成長 2%。與去年同期相比，模擬成長了 42%，嵌入式成長了 43%。我們的「其他」部門較去年同期成長了 30%。

Moving on, given the current environment, again this quarter I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by end market and comment on our lead times.

接下來，考慮到當前的環境，本季我將再次提供一些有關我們第二季終端市場收入的見解，並對我們的交貨時間進行評論。

First, the industrial market was up mid teens sequentially and up about 40% from the year ago. The strength was seen across most sectors.

首先，工業市場較上季成長百分之五十左右，比去年同期成長約 40%。大多數行業都表現出強勁勢頭。

The automotive market grew sequentially following the strong first quarter 2021 and more than doubled from a weak year-ago compare.

汽車市場繼 2021 年第一季的強勁表現後，環比成長，較去年同期的疲軟表現成長了一倍以上。

Personal electronics was about even sequentially and up about 25% compared to a year ago. The strength was broad-based across sectors and customers within personal electronics.

個人電子產品銷售量與上一季基本持平，與去年同期相比成長了約 25%。這種優勢在個人電子產品領域的各個行業和客戶中都得到了廣泛體現。

Next, communications equipment was up low-single digits sequentially and was down upper teens from the year ago.

其次，通訊設備價格較上季上漲了低個位數，但比去年同期下降了十幾個百分點。

Enterprise Systems grew upper teens sequentially and was about even from the year ago.

企業系統業務連續成長十幾個百分點，與去年同期相比基本持平。

Regarding lead times, the majority of our products continue to remain steady. However, the growing demand in the second quarter of 2021 again expanded our list of hot spots, which required extending some lead times. As planned, we continue to add incremental capacity in 2021 and first half of 2022, with additional support from the startup of our third 300-millimeter wafer fab, RFAB2, that will come online in the second half of 2022. As discussed during our capital management review in February, our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology delivers the benefits of lower cost and greater control of our supply chain, which really shows through in a market environment like this.

關於交貨時間，我們的大多數產品繼續保持穩定。然而，2021 年第二季度不斷增長的需求再次擴大了我們的熱點列表，這需要延長一些交貨時間。按照計劃，我們將在 2021 年和 2022 年上半年繼續增加產能，同時，我們第三座 300 毫米晶圓廠 RFAB2 的啟動也將為我們提供支持，該晶圓廠將於 2022 年下半年投產。正如我們在 2 月的資本管理審查中所討論的那樣，我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢帶來了更低的成本和更強的供應鏈控制力，這在這樣的市場環境中得到了充分體現。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, second quarter revenue was $4.6 billion, up 41% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $3.1 billion, or 67% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit margin increased 290 basis points.

正如戴夫所提到的，第二季的營收為 46 億美元，比去年同期成長 41%。本季毛利為 31 億美元，佔營收的 67%。與去年同期相比，毛利率增加了290個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $816 million, up 5% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 19% of revenue. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.6 billion in R&D.

本季營運費用為 8.16 億美元，比去年同期成長 5%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營運費用佔收入的 19%。在過去的 12 個月中，我們在研發方面投資了 16 億美元。

Acquisition charges, a noncash expense, were $48 million in the second quarter and are related to the National Semiconductor acquisition. These acquisition charges will remain at about this level through the third quarter of 2021 and then go to zero.

收購費用（非現金支出）第二季為 4,800 萬美元，與收購國家半導體有關。這些收購費用將在 2021 年第三季維持在這個水準左右，然後降至零。

Operating profit was $2.2 billion in the quarter, or 48% of revenue. Operating profit was up 80% from the year-ago quarter.

本季營業利潤為 22 億美元，佔營收的 48%。營業利潤較去年同期成長80%。

Net income in the second quarter was $1.9 billion, or $2.05 per share, which included a 6-cent benefit that was not in our prior outlook, due to the signing of a royalty agreement.

第二季淨收入為 19 億美元，即每股 2.05 美元，其中包括因簽署特許權使用費協議而未包含在我們先前預期中的 6 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，首先從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $386 million in the quarter. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.5 billion.

本季經營活動現金流為 21 億美元。本季資本支出為 3.86 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 65 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $942 million in dividends and repurchased $146 million of our stock. In total, we have returned $3.9 billion in the past 12 months. Over the same period, our dividend represented 56% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

本季度，我們支付了 9.42 億美元的股息，並回購了價值 1.46 億美元的股票。總體而言，我們在過去 12 個月內已返還 39 億美元。同期，我們的股利佔自由現金流的 56%，凸顯了其永續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $7.4 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，第二季末現金和短期投資為 74 億美元。

Regarding inventory. TI inventory dollars were down $34 million from the prior quarter, and days were 111, which are below desired levels.

關於庫存。 TI 庫存金額較上一季下降了 3,400 萬美元，庫存天數為 111 天，低於預期水準。

In the second quarter, we signed an agreement to acquire Micron's 300-millimeter fab in Lehi, Utah. This investment continues to strengthen our competitive advantage in manufacturing and technology and is part of our long-term capacity planning. The Lehi fab will be our fourth 300-millimeter fab, joining DMOS6, RFAB1 and soon-to-be-completed RFAB2 in our wafer fab manufacturing operations. We continue to believe that our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology will be of growing importance in owning and controlling our supply chain.

第二季度，我們簽署了收購美光位於猶他州萊希的300毫米晶圓廠的協議。這項投資持續增強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢，也是我們長期產能規劃的一部分。利希晶圓廠將成為我們的第四座 300 毫米晶圓廠，與我們晶圓廠製造業務中的 DMOS6、RFAB1 和即將完工的 RFAB2 一起。我們始終相信，我們的製造和技術競爭優勢對於擁有和控制我們的供應鏈將變得越來越重要。

For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.40 billion to $4.76 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.87 to $2.13. We continue to expect our annual operating tax rate to be about 14%.

對於第三季度，我們預計 TI 營收將在 44 億美元至 47.6 億美元之間，每股收益將在 1.87 美元至 2.13 美元之間。我們繼續預計我們的年度營業稅率約為 14%。

In closing, we continue to invest to strengthen our competitive advantages and in making our business stronger.

最後，我們將繼續投資以增強我們的競爭優勢並使我們的業務更加強大。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以開始回答問題了。 （操作員指令）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go first to Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們先聯絡美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Rafael and Dave, when I look at the last few quarters, your reported sales have been significantly above your guided range. And I mean, like between 5% to 13% above your original outlook, and that's just making it very hard to distinguish right between how to read your guidance because even now, you're guiding to a flattish outlook in what's supposed to be a seasonally stronger quarter. Should we take that to be conservatism? Should we take that to be a peaking in the cycle? And how is it that the demand is so strong? You're increasing supply, but yet your sales outlook is very flattish. I think it's a very confusing message, and I would love your insights into how to interpret your guidance. Are we reading them in the right way?

拉斐爾和戴夫，當我回顧過去幾個季度時，我發現你們報告的銷售額大大高於你們的指導範圍。我的意思是，這比你最初的預期高出 5% 到 13%，這使得我們很難正確區分如何解讀你的指導，因為即使是現在，你對本應是季節性較強的一個季度的預期仍然持平。我們應該將其視為保守主義嗎？我們是否應該將其視為週期的頂峰？為什麼需求如此強烈？您正在增加供應，但銷售前景卻非常平淡。我認為這是一個非常令人困惑的訊息，我很想聽聽您對如何解讀您的指導的見解。我們是否以正確的方式閱讀它們？

Yes, Vivek. Thanks for the question. I think, first, I'd say perhaps normal seasonal patterns may not be the best measure to look at things in periods like this. Certainly, the last few quarters we would all agree have been unusual periods that we've gone through and as we continue to move through. So -- and as you said, the last few quarters have been exceptionally strong. Second quarter was certainly strong, both sequentially and year on year. So if you look at our guidance, it would suggest that next quarter will again be a very strong quarter. So -- and as you know, our guidance is the best estimate that we have at this time. So that's what we try to do and try to give you that insight. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，維韋克。謝謝你的提問。我認為，首先，正常的季節性模式可能不是衡量此類時期事物的最佳標準。當然，我們都同意，過去幾個季度是我們經歷的不尋常時期，我們將繼續經歷這段時期。所以——正如你所說，過去幾季表現異常強勁。無論從環比或年比來看，第二季的表現都十分強勁。因此，如果你看一下我們的指導，你會發現下個季度將再次是一個非常強勁的季度。所以——正如你所知，我們的指導是我們目前所能做出的最佳估計。這就是我們嘗試去做並嘗試給你這種見解的事情。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes. So from what you said, I assume that you're again implying conservatism unless you suggest otherwise. But my real question is, when I look at the share buyback activity, it's been very low the last few quarters. And there are only a few reasons why that would be, right? One is the simplest reason that maybe the stock is perhaps not attractive at these valuations. Or it could be that you're preparing for some M&A. Or is it some large CapEx. Or some caution about macro. I'm trying to understand why is there such a material shift in terms of your return of free cash flow strategy, right? We understand the dividend part has been very strong, but the share buyback activity has been very low over the last -- almost a year now. So I would just appreciate your views as to why you are not buying back your stock at the pace at which you have historically done so.

是的。因此，從您所說的內容來看，我認為您再次暗示了保守主義，除非您另有說明。但我真正的問題是，當我觀察股票回購活動時，發現過去幾季的回購活動一直很低。而造成這種情況的原因只有幾個，對嗎？其中一個最簡單的原因是，也許這些股票在目前的估值下並不具有吸引力。或者您可能正在為某些併購做準備。或是一些大型資本支出。或對宏觀有一些警告。我想了解為什麼您的自由現金流回報策略會發生如此重大的轉變，對嗎？我們了解到股利部分一直非常強勁，但過去近一年來股票回購活動一直很低。因此，我很想知道您為什麼不以以往的速度回購股票。

No, I'm happy to address that one, Vivek. So first, let me take you back to how we think about cash return, and you know us very well, you've followed us for many years. And you've heard us talk about this in capital management year in and year out. And our objective when it comes to cash return is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company. We do that through dividends as well as buybacks. Now that has never meant and doesn't mean that every single quarter or even every single year, where that return is going to be exactly 100%, right? If you look at our history over 15-plus years, it has been actually above 100%. So that shows our commitment to that, and that commitment has not changed. We are committed to returning all free cash flow to the owners of the company over time.

不，我很高興解決這個問題，維韋克。首先，讓我帶您回顧我們對現金回報的看法，您非常了解我們，您已經關注我們很多年了。你們年復一年地聽到我們在資本管理中談論這個問題。我們現金回報的目標是將所有自由現金流回饋給公司所有者。我們透過股利和回購來實現這一目標。這從來就不意味著、也不代表每季甚至每年的報酬率都會剛好是 100%，對嗎？如果你回顧我們 15 多年的歷史，你會發現這個比例其實已經超過 100%。這顯示了我們對此的承諾，而這項承諾並沒有改變。我們致力於隨著時間的推移將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

And that next caller will be Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

下一位來電者將是高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well. I guess one clarification, Dave. I think when you talked about automotive, you said up sequentially in the second quarter. Did I catch that right? Did you not give a specific number for automotive?

我也有兩個。我想澄清一下，戴夫。我認為當您談到汽車時，您說的是第二季度環比增長。我理解得對嗎？您沒有給出汽車的具體數字嗎？

That's correct. It was up low-single digits, Toshiya. Do you have another one?

沒錯。成長幅度只有個位數，Toshiya。你還有其他的嗎？

Yes. So in terms of gross margins, I realize you guys don't run the business -- manage the business for gross margins. But clearly, you had a very, very strong quarter in Q2. And I know you don't guide gross margins going forward, but based on how you're thinking about utilization rates in your factories, given what you know about pricing in your business, both on the Analog side as well as the Embedded side going forward, how are you thinking about gross margins and kind of the OpEx leverage going forward in your business?

是的。因此，就毛利率而言，我知道你們並不是為了毛利率而經營業務、管理業務。但顯然，你們第二季的表現非常非常強勁。我知道您不會指導未來的毛利率，但是根據您對工廠利用率的考慮，考慮到您對未來模擬和嵌入式業務定價的了解，您如何看待未來的毛利率和業務運營成本槓桿？

Yes. No. So first, let me emphasize the point you made. We do not focus on gross margins in how we run the business, just like you said. Our focus is on free cash flow generation, in fact, free cash flow per share and how we can grow that over the long term, right? Because we think ultimately, that is what drives value to the owners of the company. And you can do that at 67% margin. You can do it at a lower margin. You can do it a higher margin. It depends on a number of factors.

是的。不。所以首先，讓我先強調一下你提出的觀點。正如您所說，我們在經營業務時並不關注毛利率。我們的重點是自由現金流的產生，事實上是每股自由現金流以及如何實現長期成長，對嗎？因為我們認為，從根本上來說，這才是為公司所有者創造價值的因素。你可以以 67% 的利潤率做到這一點。你可以用較低的利潤率來做到這一點。你可以獲得更高的利潤。這取決於許多因素。

So -- and then to answer your specific question. As we have always guided over the long term, not any one quarter or even any one year, but over the long term, 70% to 75% fall through is the right way to -- generally speaking, the right way to look at -- to model the company as we go forward. So as you put whatever revenue expectation you have there and fall that through at about that rate, and you'll be in the ballpark.

那麼——然後回答你的具體問題。正如我們一直以來所指導的，從長期來看，不是任何一個季度，甚至不是某一年，而是從長期來看，70% 到 75% 的跌幅是正確的方式——一般來說，這是看待公司未來發展的正確方式。因此，只要您將預期收入放在那裡，然後按照該速度下降，您就能得到大致的收益。

And the next caller is going to be Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

下一位來電者是伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西‧拉斯貢 (Stacy Rasgon)。

So I know you don't think about running the business to gross margins, but I'm going to ask a gross margin question anyways. In (inaudible), you were at 65.2. Obviously, you did very strongly this quarter, but you said you had 6 cents of royalties that was unexpected. That should have been about 1.4 points of gross margin, as I understand it, if I do the math right. And I think you had something like $50 million in Austin costs last quarter that should have rolled off this quarter. That would have been another 100 basis points, give or take. So I'm actually wondering why gross margins were -- if I take out the royalties, they would have been up 60 basis points only with 100 basis points of costs that should have rolled off with a massive revenue increase. Like what's going on with -- what happened with gross margins in the current quarter given all of that?

所以我知道你不會考慮經營業務的毛利率，但我還是要問一個毛利率問題。在（聽不清楚）中，您的分數為 65.2。顯然，本季你的表現非常強勁，但你說你的版稅收入有 6 美分，這是意料之外的。如果我沒算錯的話，那應該是大約 1.4 個百分點的毛利率。我認為上個季度您在奧斯汀的成本約為 5000 萬美元，這些成本應該會在本季度結清。這將是另外 100 個基點，大約如此。所以我實際上想知道為什麼毛利率會這樣——如果我扣除特許權使用費，毛利率只會上漲 60 個基點，而成本則會上漲 100 個基點，這應該會伴隨收入的大幅增加。例如，考慮到所有這些因素，本季的毛利率如何？

So Stacy, let me address one and then I have to ask your question. I didn't quite understand part of your question, but they...

那麼，史黛西，讓我先回答一個問題，然後我再問你的問題。我不太明白你的問題的一部分，但是他們......

Well maybe royalties weren't in gross margins. Maybe they...

嗯，也許版稅不包含在毛利率中。也許他們…

Exactly. That's the part I didn't -- okay. So you were assuming royalty. All right. Okay, so let me address that first. We talk about royalty. It used to be in revenue and gross margin, but that was years ago. I think three or four years ago, we -- yes, we moved that to other income and expense. So that is in that line, other income and expense. So it has nothing to do with margins, it hasn't been for three or four years or so since we -- and the reason we moved that is very de minimis, it's a relatively small amount. It averages about $100 million a year. Of course, in the big scheme of things, given our revenue level is a relatively small amount, and we expect that to be -- continue to be small going forward.

確切地。這就是我沒有做到的部分——好吧。所以你假設皇室。好的。好的，那我先來解決這個問題。我們談論皇室。它曾經是收入和毛利率，但那是幾年前的事了。我想三、四年前，我們——是的，我們將其轉移到其他收入和支出。這就是那一行，其他收入和支出。所以這與利潤無關，自從我們改變這個政策以來已經有三、四年了——我們這樣做的原因非常微不足道，數額相對較小。平均每年約1億美元。當然，從總體來看，考慮到我們的收入水準相對較小，我們預計未來的收入水準將繼續保持較小水準。

On the other part of your question, so last quarter, we had about a $50 million hit to gross margins. That was because of the winter storm in Texas. We did talk about that during the call. We mentioned it, and that was all in gross margin. So yes, you can adjust that, you can adjust however you wish for first quarter to get you the gross margin without that impact, right? And that may make more sense when you look at the trends. Does that answer your question?

關於您問題的另一部分，上個季度，我們的毛利率下降了約 5000 萬美元。這是因為德克薩斯州的冬季風暴。我們在通話中確實談到了這一點。我們提到過，這都是毛利率。所以是的，您可以調整這一點，您可以根據自己的意願調整第一季以獲得不受影響的毛利率，對嗎？當你觀察趨勢時，這可能更有意義。這回答了你的問題嗎？

Yes, that answers it. That's very helpful.

是的，答案就在這裡。這非常有幫助。

I think you have a second one, right? You still have a follow-up or...

我想你還有第二個，對嗎？您仍有後續行動或...

So my follow-up, yes. You're guiding revenues flat and you're guiding EPS down slightly. So either gross margins are going down or OpEx is going up or -- I mean normally, OpEx, I think seasonally into Q3 would be down a few points. I guess, on those, are you expecting any sort of different OpEx trends into Q3 as you would normally see like in the normal Q3? Is there something else going on? Because normally, it's down a few points sequentially.

所以我的後續問題是，是的。您預計收入將持平，而每股收益將略有下降。因此，要么毛利率下降，要么運營支出上升，或者——我的意思是，通常情況下，運營支出，我認為到第三季度會季節性地下降幾個點。我想，就這些而言，您是否預期第三季的營運支出趨勢會與正常的第三季有所不同？還有什麼事發生嗎？因為通常情況下，它會連續下降幾個點。

Yes. Well, so the reason that EPS is moving at the midpoint is the royalty that we just talked about, right? So you just take out that 6 cents from the EPS that we just delivered, you get to a more normalized EPS without that royalty and then compare that to the next quarter. And you'll see that there's nothing unusual there. Obviously, we only give revenue and EPS range. But if there was something unusual in between the lines, we would point it out, and there's nothing unusual.

是的。那麼，每股盈餘在中間點變動的原因是我們剛才談到的特許權使用費，對嗎？因此，您只需從我們剛剛提供的每股收益中扣除 6 美分，即可獲得不包含特許權使用費的更標準化的每股收益，然後將其與下一季度進行比較。你會發現那裡並沒有什麼不尋常的東西。顯然，我們只給出收入和每股收益範圍。但如果字裡行間有什麼不尋常的東西，我們就會指出來，而且並沒有什麼不尋常的東西。

Yes, nothing is changing much between the other lines.

是的，其他線路之間沒有太大變化。

Right. Yes.

正確的。是的。

And next, we have John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

接下來我們有請瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策 (John Pitzer)。

Dave and Rafael, I just want to go back to the revenue guidance. Sort of flat at the midpoint with down sequentially. I guess I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that your deficiencies kind of increased in the June quarter. You said your hot spots went up. It sounds like demand is still relatively strong, and yet there's a part of your guidance that could be down sequentially, which I'm having a hard time grasping.

戴夫和拉斐爾，我只想回到收入指引上。中點處趨於平緩，隨後逐漸下降。我想我只是想弄清楚為什麼你們的缺陷在六月季度增加。你說你的熱點上升了。聽起來需求仍然相對強勁，但您的指導中有一部分可能會連續下降，我很難理解。

Dave, maybe you can talk about end markets. Are there any end markets that particularly look like they're cooling off sequentially into the calendar third quarter? Or why is that down sequentially? I think I have to go back to quite a bit of time to see you guys have a flat to down sequential Q3.

戴夫，也許你可以談談終端市場。是否有任何終端市場看起來特別像在進入第三季後逐漸降溫？或者為什麼它會依次下降？我想我必須回顧相當長一段時間才能看到你們的第三季表現穩定甚至下降。

And John, when you say down sequentially, just to clarify, are you saying that part of our range would imply that it could be down and the other part would imply that it will be up?

約翰，當您說連續下降時，只是為了澄清一下，您是說我們的範圍的一部分意味著它可能會下降，而另一部分意味著它會上升嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's what -- just to clarify that part of the question. I got you. Yes. So yes, John, if there's something that's unusual going on within an end market or region or product area, we've always provided insight into that to help understand an outlook or even something that's happened in a current quarter. I'll just say that there's nothing unusual like that, that we feel that we would need to explain what's going on. I think that as I mentioned earlier to Vivek's question on the topic, seasonality probably isn't the best thing to be looking at as we've been moving through the last few quarters. And I would say, with that range implies that the revenue still -- will still be strong. So do you have a follow-on?

這就是——只是為了澄清問題的這一部分。我接到你了。是的。是的，約翰，如果終端市場、地區或產品領域發生了一些不尋常的事情，我們總是會提供相關的見解，以幫助了解前景，甚至是本季發生的事情。我只想說，這沒有什麼不尋常的，我們覺得我們需要解釋一下發生了什麼。我認為，正如我之前在回答 Vivek 關於這個主題的問題時提到的那樣，季節性可能不是最好的選擇，因為我們已經經歷了過去幾個季度。我想說，這個範圍意味著收入仍然會很強勁。那你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes. Just as my follow-on. On RFAB2, I'm just curious with the proposed purchase of Lehi, should we think about sort of the building going on as planned, the pilot line going on as planned but capacity at RFAB2 kind of slowed? Or how do we think about kind of now your mix of capacity as Lehi comes in next year and what that means for CapEx and the ramp of RFAB2?

是的。正如我的後續。關於 RFAB2，我只是對擬議的收購 Lehi 感到好奇，我們是否應該考慮按計劃進行建設，試驗生產線按計劃進行，但 RFAB2 的產能有所放緩？或者我們現在如何看待明年利哈伊投入使用時的產能組合，以及這對資本支出和 RFAB2 的成長意味著什麼？

Yes. No, let me tell you about that. So first, let me step back, remind everyone objective when it comes to CapEx is to invest to support new technology development and revenue growth and specifically extending our low-cost manufacturing advantage, primarily 300-millimeter, right? So we have talked about that for a long time and it's a core part of our strategy, one of our competitive advantages having that manufacturing and technology advantage. RFAB2 will be the third 300-millimeter factory. Lehi will be our fourth 300-millimeter factory. RFAB2 will become operational sometime in the middle of next year. That's when the shell will be completed, and then we'll be deploying equipment there. And then we incur in CapEx because of that. So CapEx, as I said at the last call, will be higher, both in absolute dollars and as a percent of revenue because of that.

是的。不，讓我來告訴你這件事。首先，讓我退一步，提醒大家，資本支出的目標是投資支持新技術開發和收入成長，特別是擴大我們的低成本製造優勢，主要是 300 毫米，對嗎？我們已經討論這個問題很久了，這是我們策略的核心部分，我們的競爭優勢之一就是製造和技術優勢。 RFAB2 將成為第三家 300 毫米工廠。利哈伊將成為我們的第四家 300 毫米工廠。 RFAB2 將於明年年中投入營運。那時外殼就會完工，然後我們就會在那裡部署設備。因此，我們會產生資本支出。因此，正如我在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，資本支出將會更高，無論是絕對金額還是佔收入的百分比。

And then on top of that, add Lehi, right, which we didn't have last quarter when we had talked -- when we had the earnings call. So now Lehi is going to be on top of that. That's a $900 million purchase price, which will run to CapEx. But then in addition to that factory, it's ready for production once we qualify, but at relatively low volumes, right? We still have to add CapEx to that factory to take it to the volumes that we want, and that will happen over time. And think of that CapEx is probably going to be -- it's probably going to run about half of what RFAB2 CapEx will run. I'm talking over years, right, as we deploy equipment there. And both of those will add to the strength -- or will strengthen our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology with two more 300-millimeter factories.

除此之外，還要加上 Lehi，對的，上個季度我們開收益電話會議的時候還沒有提到他。所以現在李海將要超越這一切。這是一筆 9 億美元的購買價格，將計入資本支出。但是除了那個工廠之外，一旦我們獲得資格，它就可以投入生產，但產量相對較低，對嗎？我們仍然需要為該工廠增加資本支出，以使其達到我們想要的產量，而這將隨著時間的推移而實現。想想看，資本支出可能會是——它可能只佔 RFAB2 資本支出的一半左右。我說的是多年來，因為我們在那裡部署了設備。這兩家工廠的建成將增強我們的實力，或者說將增強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢。

And that will be Blayne Curtis of Barclays.

這位代表是巴克萊銀行的布萊恩柯蒂斯 (Blayne Curtis)。

Actually, I just want to ask on -- I know you're not going to probably guide December, but just kind of any feel you can for that quarter? Obviously, seasonality has been out the window, it's typically a down quarter. Just trying to get a better handle on the back half here, obviously, the flattening markets but at much higher levels. Anything you can throw out there for December.

實際上，我只是想問一下——我知道您可能不會預測 12 月的情況，但您對那個季度有什麼看法？顯然，季節性已經不存在，這通常是一個下滑的季度。只是想更好地掌握後半部分的情況，顯然，市場趨於平穩，但水平要高得多。任何你可以在十二月丟掉的東西。

Yes, Blayne. And certainly, I know there's lots of speculations on how long the strong demand will last. And certainly, we've read the ranges that it's going to end soon and others that say is going to continue for quite some time. And obviously, as you stated, we're not going to forecast the fourth quarter or even comment on how long the cycle lasts because, honestly, as you know, we don't know. I don't think anyone knows.

是的，布萊恩。當然，我知道有很多關於強勁需求將持續多久的猜測。當然，我們讀過一些報導說這種情況很快就會結束，也有人說這種情況還會持續相當長的一段時間。顯然，正如您所說，我們不會預測第四季度，甚至不會評論這個週期會持續多久，因為老實說，正如您所知，我們不知道。我認為沒人知道。

But I think we can frame how the actions that we've taken and our approach as we've gone through the cycle. And in the first phase, you've seen us accelerate into the widely anticipated decline. And that really enabled us to gain ground. And really, in the second phase, we're working to ensure that we gain strategic ground, particularly in industrial and automotive. And that -- those gains will reward us for years to come. And independent of that, we're investing for the long term. So some of the obvious things that you can see are the new manufacturing investments in RFAB2 -- if you're down here in Texas, you'll see cranes up over the building; I think I counted six or seven at the max that were up over that -- the addition of Lehi, some of the less visible ones are the R&D investments and new capabilities at TI.com, and those investments are continuing. So we won't -- we'll go through cycles. We won't be able to predict it, but we can make the place stronger, we can continue to invest in our competitive advantages. So do you have a follow-on?

但我認為我們可以建立我們所採取的行動以及我們在整個週期中採取的方法。在第一階段，您已經看到我們加速進入普遍預期的衰退階段。這確實使我們取得了進展。實際上，在第二階段，我們正在努力確保戰略地位，特別是在工業和汽車領域。這些成果將在未來幾年為我們帶來回報。除此之外，我們也正在進行長期投資。因此，您可以看到的一些明顯的事情是 RFAB2 的新製造投資——如果您在德克薩斯州，您會看到建築物上方的起重機；我認為最多有六七個項目超過了這個數字——除了 Lehi 的加入，一些不太明顯的是 TI.com 的研發投資和新功能，這些投資仍在繼續。所以我們不會－我們會經歷週期。我們無法預測，但我們可以讓這個地方變得更強大，我們可以繼續投資我們的競爭優勢。那你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes. I just wanted to ask you on inventory levels, obviously, way down at these sales levels on a days inventory, but your ability to grow that absolute amount and if you're able to do that in September.

是的。我只是想問一下您的庫存水平，顯然，這些銷售水平的庫存水平會下降很多，但您有能力增加這個絕對數量，以及您是否能夠在 9 月份做到這一點。

I'll start, and Dave, you want to follow up. But inventory levels, first, let me remind everyone the objective there, maintain high levels of customer satisfaction while minimizing obsolescence, which, frankly, is not an issue given our business model. We are clearly below these higher levels, just like we said during the prepared remarks, right? We're running about 111 days, and our target is 130 to 190 days. That's part of the reason why we have the hot spots that we talked about. At the same time, I tell you, we -- go back to second quarter last year, when the pandemic was starting, in fact, March of last year, everybody -- all our competitors were decreasing their inventory levels, slowing down factories. We went the other way, right? We maintained, and in fact, increased our production levels. We increased our inventory levels. They went from about 140 days to 160 some, 170 days almost. And that, along with our business strategy, our business model helped put us in a great position to take advantage of the situation and has helped us do significantly better than our competitors over the last three or four quarters, right?

我先開始了，戴夫，你想跟進一下嗎？但首先，關於庫存水平，讓我提醒大家我們的目標是保持高水平的客戶滿意度，同時盡量減少產品過時，坦白說，考慮到我們的商業模式，這不是問題。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們顯然低於這些更高的水平，對嗎？我們的運行時間約為 111 天，我們的目標是 130 至 190 天。這就是我們討論的熱門議題的部分原因。同時，我告訴你，回到去年第二季度，當疫情開始時，實際上是去年三月，我們所有的競爭對手都在降低庫存水平，減緩工廠的生產速度。我們走了另一條路，對嗎？我們維持了生產水平，事實上也提高了生產水平。我們增加了庫存水準。他們從大約 140 天增加到 160 多天，甚至將近 170 天。而且，我們的商業策略和商業模式幫助我們處於有利地位，充分利用了局勢，並幫助我們在過去三、四個季度中比競爭對手做得更好，對嗎？

But we have gotten to a point where, yes, things are -- inventory is now below these higher levels. We'll continue to add incremental capacity as we have talked about, that is in all of our factories, but especially RFAB1. But the next bigger tranche of capacity will come in with RFAB2, as we talked about earlier. Once that is operational sometime in second quarter of next year, then -- well, that's when we finish and will produce revenue sometime in the second half of next year, then that will add a significant amount of capacity. And then shortly after that, Lehi will also come in line for additional revenue capacity there.

但我們已經到了這樣的地步，是的，情況是——庫存現在低於這些較高水準。正如我們所討論的，我們將繼續增加所有工廠的產能，尤其是 RFAB1。但正如我們之前所討論的，下一批更大的產能將隨著 RFAB2 而來。一旦它在明年第二季度某個時候投入運營，那麼 - 嗯，那時我們將完成並將在明年下半年某個時候產生收入，然後這將增加大量的容量。此後不久，利哈伊也將獲得額外的收入能力。

Yes. And maybe just quickly what I might add to that. Obviously, whenever things do slow, we will then use that period of time to rebuild inventories and those positions to be able to support growth in the future, so.

是的。我可能只是想快速補充一下。顯然，每當經濟放緩時，我們就會利用這段時間重建庫存和部位，以便能夠支持未來的成長。

And I'll just add one more thing. Both RFAB2 and Lehi, those are long-term plays, right? These are -- this is to strengthen our manufacturing advantage, owning our own manufacturing, which clearly has proven over the last 1.5 years, we knew that already, but it has proven that -- how important that is in the current environment. In the current environment, they're going to happen to help in the medium term, most likely. But if they don't, if things slow down and it doesn't work out that way, that is completely fine with us. That's not why we are equipping those factories. That's not why we bought -- why we're buying Lehi. It's for the long-term positioning of the company to support long-term revenue growth in both Analog and Embedded.

我再補充一點。 RFAB2 和 Lehi 都是長期計劃，對嗎？這些都是為了加強我們的製造優勢，擁有我們自己的製造業，這在過去的一年半裡已經得到了明確的證明，我們已經知道這一點，但它已經證明了——這在當前環境下有多麼重要。在當前環境下，它們很可能會在中期內提供幫助。但如果他們不這樣做，如果事情進展緩慢，而且沒有按照我們想要的方式進行，我們也完全可以接受。這不是我們裝備這些工廠的原因。這不是我們收購 Lehi 的原因。這是為了公司的長期定位，以支援模擬和嵌入式領域的長期收入成長。

And next, we will go to Ambrish Srivastava of BMO.

接下來，我們來拜訪 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Rafael and Dave, I had a question on free cash flow per share, and you guys know I don't look at it on a quarterly basis. So if I look at the last two years, if I look at 2020, free cash flow per share, down 3%. 2019, it was flat. And I know that if I look at this year on a trailing 12-month basis, it is up double digits. But it has lagged -- sorry for the background noise, it always happens when I'm on a conference call. If I look at the trailing 12 months and then -- so that's in line with what you have said consistently. But should we expect this to come back to the double digit on an annualized basis? What's the right way to think about the lag over the last two years? And how should we think about it going forward?

拉斐爾和戴夫，我有一個關於每股自由現金流的問題，你們知道我不會按季度來查看它。因此，如果我回顧過去兩年，如果我回顧 2020 年，每股自由現金流下降了 3%。 2019年則持平。我知道，如果以過去 12 個月為基礎來看今年，成長率將達到兩位數。但它已經滯後了——抱歉，背景噪音很大，在我開電話會議時總是會發生這種情況。如果我看一下過去 12 個月的情況，那麼這與您一貫所說的一致。但我們是否應該預期這個數字會以年率計算回到兩位數呢？如何正確看待過去兩年的延遲？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Yes. This is one -- most financial metrics are this way too, but you want to look at this over the long term, right? Any one quarter or even any one year, they could be a little choppy. You mentioned a couple of years when 2019 and even 2020, where that trajectory does not represent the longer term. And arguably, the same thing for 2021, right, or the trailing 12-month number that you just quoted, right? So you want to look at this over the long term. And that's how we look at it, and that's what's going to ultimately drive value for the owners of the company, right?

是的。這是其中之一——大多數財務指標也都是這樣的，但你想從長遠來看這一點，對嗎？任何一個季度，甚至任何一年，都可能有點波動。您提到了 2019 年甚至 2020 年的幾年，但這軌跡並不代表長期趨勢。可以說，2021 年的情況也是一樣的，對吧，或者您剛才引用的過去 12 個月的數據也是一樣，對吧？所以你要從長遠角度來考慮這個問題。這就是我們的看法，這也是最終為公司所有者創造價值的因素，對嗎？

Okay. Do you have a follow-on?

好的。您有後續訊息嗎？

Yes, I did. With all the tightness and contrast this -- the way you guys have managed the business, and these shares should probably don't show up that quickly because these designs are such long-lasting and they don't change at a time. Are you seeing any discernible change in your design-in activity as a result of what we've seen from your peers with the tightness and you managing your lead times and inventory much better than some of your peers?

是的，我做到了。由於你們管理業務的方式如此緊密和對比，這些份額可能不會那麼快出現，因為這些設計是如此持久，並且它們不會一次改變。我們從您的同行中看到，你們的設計活動是否發生了明顯的變化，你們的交貨時間和庫存管理比一些同行要好得多？

Yes, I'll start off, and Rafael, if you want to add. I would say that, as you know, Ambrish, we have started on the journey to have closer direct relationships with customers really eight -- seven, eight years ago with our investments in TI.com, investments in our sales applications teams, investments in processes and how we do business and just our structure inside of the company.

是的，我先開始，如果你想補充的話，還有拉斐爾。我想說的是，正如你所知，Ambrish，我們從八到七八年前就開始與客戶建立更密切的直接關係，我們對 TI.com 進行了投資，對我們的銷售應用團隊進行了投資，對流程以及我們如何開展業務以及公司內部結構進行了投資。

And last year, you saw a pretty major step of taking more customers direct and operating with fewer distributors as well as transacting business through TI.com. So you kind of mix that together with the pandemic and our ability to do virtual sales calls, I think all those things have positioned us well strategically, especially in markets like industrial, automotive, those markets where we want to gain that strategic ground. You couple that with availability. And like you say, things don't move quickly. But the supply shortages really started showing up in the beginning of 2020, took a break in the first or second quarter when the pandemic hit and then reaccelerated after that. So there are cases that are unusual, but there are cases where customers redesign boards just because of availability. I'll describe that as an outlier, but we do see cases of that. But we see more cases where you have designs that are being intersected as they come through. And again, our sales teams are engaged from production all the way back into engineering. That visibility is a great strategic advantage. And those benefits, again, will be things that will pay rewards for us for a long time to come. Okay. Thank you, Ambrish. And I think we've got time for one last caller.

去年，我們邁出了重要的一步，即直接吸引更多客戶，減少分銷商數量，並透過 TI.com 開展業務。因此，如果將這種影響與疫情以及我們進行虛擬銷售電話的能力結合起來，我認為所有這些都為我們帶來了良好的戰略定位，特別是在工業、汽車等我們希望佔據戰略優勢的市場。您將其與可用性結合。正如您所說，事情進展並不快。但供應短缺在 2020 年初才真正開始顯現，在第一季或第二季疫情爆發時有所緩解，之後又再次加速。因此，有些情況並不常見，但也存在客戶僅僅因為可用性而重新設計電路板的情況。我將其描述為異常值，但我們確實看到了這樣的情況。但我們看到的更多情況是，設計在實施過程中相互交叉。我們的銷售團隊從生產一直參與到工程領域。這種可見性是一個巨大的策略優勢。而這些好處，將會在很長一段時間內為我們帶來回報。好的。謝謝你，Ambrish。我想我們還有時間接聽最後一位來電。

And that caller will be Chris Danely of Citi Group.

來電者是花旗集團的克里斯丹尼利 (Chris Danely)。

Dave, by the way, thanks for letting the other analysts go first and beat you up on the flat guidance, so I don't have to. My question is on the auto revenue. So if we look at the headlines and talk to the folks in the auto supply chain, there's still a lot of shortages, et cetera, et cetera, out there. And I think your revenue is only slightly up. So can you just explain the discrepancy? It seems like it would be up a little bit more than that, if there's all these folks clamoring for parts out there.

順便說一句，戴夫，謝謝你讓其他分析師先走，並在持平的指導上打敗你，這樣我就不用這麼做了。我的問題是關於汽車收入的。因此，如果我們看一下頭條新聞並與汽車供應鏈中的人們交談，就會發現仍然存在許多短缺等等。我認為你的收入僅略有增加。那你能解釋一下這種差異嗎？如果所有人都在爭相購買零件，那麼價格似乎還會更高一些。

Well, I'd point out it over doubled from a year ago, Chris. So it's a little bit more than up a little bit. And I think you're pointing to the sequential. But again, last quarter, it was up over 25% from pre-pandemic levels. I think we're shipping 25% more cars from pre-pandemic levels, right? So our shipments into automotive are up, and up significantly. And we continue to add capacity and continue to -- we believe we're gaining share there as well. You got to measure it over time. But yes, so we are -- our shipments are up there and up strong. So do you have a follow-on?

好吧，我想指出的是，克里斯，這個數字比一年前增加了一倍多。所以，漲幅比上漲幅度大一些。我認為你指的是順序。但上個季度，這一數字較疫情前的水準上漲了 25% 以上。我認為我們的汽車出貨量比疫情前增加了 25%，對嗎？因此，我們的汽車出貨量大幅增加。我們將繼續增加產能，並繼續——我們相信我們的份額也在增加。你必須隨著時間的推移對其進行測量。但是是的，我們的出貨量確實在增加，而且成長強勁。那你還有後續消息嗎？

Yes. Just, I guess, a hot spot question. So you said that you're seeing a few more hot spots last quarter. Do you think that the situation gets a little bit worse this quarter? Or do you think it gets better? When do you guys think you'll start to get a handle on all these sort of supply issues out there, I guess?

是的。我想，這只是一個熱門議題。所以您說上個季度您看到了更多的熱點。您認為本季的情況會變得更糟嗎？或者您認為情況會變得更好嗎？我想，你們什麼時候才能開始解決所有這些供應問題？

Chris, it's going to depend on demand, right? We are -- on the supply side, as we said, we are adding capacity incrementally. We have been and we'll continue to do that. The bigger tranche of capacity doesn't come in until about a year from now, right, as we just talked about with RFAB2. And then six months later with Lehi. So it will be a while before we have big tranches of capacity coming online. So it's going to depend on demand.

克里斯，這取決於需求，對嗎？正如我們所說，在供應方面，我們正在逐步增加產能。我們一直這樣做，並將繼續這樣做。更大容量的產能要到大約一年後才會投入使用，正如我們剛才談到的 RFAB2。六個月後，我和李海在一起。因此，我們還需要一段時間才能有大量產能投入使用。所以這將取決於需求。

At the end of the day, we don't fully control that. It's more of a macro situation. But we are better prepared than our peers and have been in both the tactical decisions we have made during the pandemic but more importantly, our business model and how we run the company, specifically owning our own manufacturing, that has been key in this whole process. And we're just really doubling down on that with what we're doing with all those factories that we just talked about.

歸根結底，我們無法完全控制這一點。這更像是一種宏觀情況。但我們比同行準備得更充分，不僅在疫情期間做出了戰術決策，更重要的是，我們的商業模式以及我們如何經營公司，特別是擁有自己的製造業，這是整個過程中的關鍵。我們確實正在加倍努力，對付我們剛才談到的所有工廠。

Thank you, Chris. Rafael, do you want to wrap first?

謝謝你，克里斯。拉斐爾，你想先包好嗎？

Yes. I'll go ahead and wrap up. So let me just emphasize what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate long-term value for owners is the growth of free cash flow per share.

是的。我將繼續並結束發言。因此，我只想強調一下我們之前所說的內容。從本質上講，我們是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎，但最終，我們的目標以及衡量進步和為所有者創造長期價值的最佳指標是每股自由現金流的成長。

While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions: We will act like owners who will own the company for decades; we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing; and we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

在努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三大抱負：我們將像擁有公司數十年的主人一樣行事；我們將適應不斷變化的世界並取得成功；我們將成為一家讓我們感到自豪並願意與它為鄰的公司。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。謝謝，祝您晚上愉快。

This concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。