德州儀器 (TXN) 2021 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments Q2 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. Please note that today's call is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Dave Pahl. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，歡迎參加德州儀器 2021 年第二季度收益發布電話會議。請注意，今天的通話正在錄音中。在這個時候，我想把會議交給 Dave Pahl。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our second quarter 2021 earnings conference call. For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web. This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的 2021 年第二季度收益電話會議。對於錯過發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。該電話正在網絡上進行現場直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。重播將通過網絡提供。本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益發布中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知，以及 TI 最近提交給 SEC 的文件以獲得更完整的描述。

Our Chief Financial Officer Rafael Lizardi is with me today, and we'll provide the following updates. First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter. Next, I'll provide insight into second quarter revenue results, with more details than usual by end market, including some sequential performance since it's more informative at this time. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, some insight into one-time items and our guidance for the third quarter of 2021.

我們的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天與我同在，我們將提供以下更新。首先，我將從本季度的快速概覽開始。接下來，我將提供對第二季度收入結果的洞察，提供比通常終端市場更多的細節，包括一些連續表現，因為此時它提供的信息更多。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、對一次性項目的一些見解以及我們對 2021 年第三季度的指導。

Starting with a quick overview of the second quarter: Revenue in the quarter was $4.6 billion, an increase of 7% sequentially and 41% year over year, driven by strong demand in industrial, automotive and personal electronics. On a sequential basis, Analog grew 6% and Embedded Processing grew 2%. On a year-over-year basis, Analog grew 42% and Embedded grew 43%. Our "Other" segment grew 30% from the year-ago quarter.

從第二季度的快速概覽開始：在工業、汽車和個人電子產品強勁需求的推動下，本季度收入為 46 億美元，環比增長 7%，同比增長 41%。在連續基礎上，模擬增長 6%，嵌入式處理增長 2%。與去年同期相比，Analog 增長了 42%，Embedded 增長了 43%。我們的“其他”部門比去年同期增長了 30%。

Moving on, given the current environment, again this quarter I'll provide some insight into our second quarter revenue by end market and comment on our lead times.

繼續前進，鑑於當前的環境，本季度我將再次按終端市場對我們第二季度的收入提供一些見解，並對我們的交貨時間發表評論。

First, the industrial market was up mid teens sequentially and up about 40% from the year ago. The strength was seen across most sectors.

首先，工業市場環比增長約 40%，同比增長約 40%。大多數行業都表現出強勁的勢頭。

The automotive market grew sequentially following the strong first quarter 2021 and more than doubled from a weak year-ago compare.

在強勁的 2021 年第一季度之後，汽車市場連續增長，與去年同期相比增長了一倍多。

Personal electronics was about even sequentially and up about 25% compared to a year ago. The strength was broad-based across sectors and customers within personal electronics.

與一年前相比，個人電子產品環比增長約 25%。這種優勢廣泛存在於個人電子產品的各個行業和客戶中。

Next, communications equipment was up low-single digits sequentially and was down upper teens from the year ago.

接下來，通信設備連續低個位數增長，比一年前下降了十幾歲。

Enterprise Systems grew upper teens sequentially and was about even from the year ago.

企業系統按順序增長了十幾歲，與一年前差不多。

Regarding lead times, the majority of our products continue to remain steady. However, the growing demand in the second quarter of 2021 again expanded our list of hot spots, which required extending some lead times. As planned, we continue to add incremental capacity in 2021 and first half of 2022, with additional support from the startup of our third 300-millimeter wafer fab, RFAB2, that will come online in the second half of 2022. As discussed during our capital management review in February, our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology delivers the benefits of lower cost and greater control of our supply chain, which really shows through in a market environment like this.

關於交貨時間，我們的大部分產品繼續保持穩定。然而，2021 年第二季度不斷增長的需求再次擴大了我們的熱點列表，這需要延長一些交貨時間。按照計劃，我們將在 2021 年和 2022 年上半年繼續增加產能，並得到我們第三個 300 毫米晶圓廠 RFAB2 啟動的額外支持，該廠將於 2022 年下半年上線。正如我們在資本會議期間所討論的在 2 月份的管理審查中，我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢帶來了更低的成本和更好地控制我們的供應鏈的好處，這在這樣的市場環境中得到了真正的體現。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

As Dave mentioned, second quarter revenue was $4.6 billion, up 41% from a year ago. Gross profit in the quarter was $3.1 billion, or 67% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit margin increased 290 basis points.

正如戴夫所說，第二季度收入為 46 億美元，比一年前增長 41%。本季度毛利潤為 31 億美元，佔收入的 67%。與一年前相比，毛利率增加了 290 個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $816 million, up 5% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 19% of revenue. Over the last 12 months, we have invested $1.6 billion in R&D.

本季度的運營費用為 8.16 億美元，同比增長 5%，與預期相符。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 19%。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們在研發上投入了 16 億美元。

Acquisition charges, a noncash expense, were $48 million in the second quarter and are related to the National Semiconductor acquisition. These acquisition charges will remain at about this level through the third quarter of 2021 and then go to zero.

收購費用是一項非現金支出，第二季度為 4800 萬美元，與美國國家半導體的收購有關。到 2021 年第三季度，這些購置費用將保持在這個水平左右，然後降至零。

Operating profit was $2.2 billion in the quarter, or 48% of revenue. Operating profit was up 80% from the year-ago quarter.

本季度營業利潤為 22 億美元，佔收入的 48%。營業利潤較去年同期增長 80%。

Net income in the second quarter was $1.9 billion, or $2.05 per share, which included a 6-cent benefit that was not in our prior outlook, due to the signing of a royalty agreement.

第二季度的淨收入為 19 億美元，即每股 2.05 美元，其中包括由於簽署特許權使用費協議而未出現在我們之前預期中的 6 美分收益。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $386 million in the quarter. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.5 billion.

本季度運營現金流為 21 億美元。本季度的資本支出為 3.86 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 65 億美元。

In the quarter, we paid $942 million in dividends and repurchased $146 million of our stock. In total, we have returned $3.9 billion in the past 12 months. Over the same period, our dividend represented 56% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

本季度，我們支付了 9.42 億美元的股息並回購了 1.46 億美元的股票。在過去的 12 個月中，我們總共返還了 39 億美元。同期，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 56%，凸顯了其可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $7.4 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter.

我們的資產負債表保持強勁，截至第二季度末有 74 億美元的現金和短期投資。

Regarding inventory. TI inventory dollars were down $34 million from the prior quarter, and days were 111, which are below desired levels.

關於庫存。 TI 庫存美元比上一季度減少了 3400 萬美元，天數為 111 天，低於預期水平。

In the second quarter, we signed an agreement to acquire Micron's 300-millimeter fab in Lehi, Utah. This investment continues to strengthen our competitive advantage in manufacturing and technology and is part of our long-term capacity planning. The Lehi fab will be our fourth 300-millimeter fab, joining DMOS6, RFAB1 and soon-to-be-completed RFAB2 in our wafer fab manufacturing operations. We continue to believe that our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology will be of growing importance in owning and controlling our supply chain.

第二季度，我們簽署了收購美光在猶他州 Lehi 的 300 毫米晶圓廠的協議。這項投資將繼續加強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢，並且是我們長期產能規劃的一部分。 Lehi 晶圓廠將成為我們的第四家 300 毫米晶圓廠，在我們的晶圓廠製造業務中加入 DMOS6、RFAB1 和即將完成的 RFAB2。我們仍然相信，我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢在擁有和控制我們的供應鏈方面將變得越來越重要。

For the third quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.40 billion to $4.76 billion, and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.87 to $2.13. We continue to expect our annual operating tax rate to be about 14%.

對於第三季度，我們預計 TI 收入在 44.0 億美元至 47.6 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.87 美元至 2.13 美元之間。我們繼續預計我們的年營業稅率約為 14%。

In closing, we continue to invest to strengthen our competitive advantages and in making our business stronger.

最後，我們將繼續投資以增強我們的競爭優勢並讓我們的業務更加強大。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開排隊提問。 （操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And we'll go first to Vivek Arya of Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們將首先訪問美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Rafael and Dave, when I look at the last few quarters, your reported sales have been significantly above your guided range. And I mean, like between 5% to 13% above your original outlook, and that's just making it very hard to distinguish right between how to read your guidance because even now, you're guiding to a flattish outlook in what's supposed to be a seasonally stronger quarter. Should we take that to be conservatism? Should we take that to be a peaking in the cycle? And how is it that the demand is so strong? You're increasing supply, but yet your sales outlook is very flattish. I think it's a very confusing message, and I would love your insights into how to interpret your guidance. Are we reading them in the right way?

拉斐爾和戴夫，當我回顧過去幾個季度時，你們報告的銷售額明顯高於指導範圍。我的意思是，比你原來的前景高出 5% 到 13%，這只是很難區分如何閱讀你的指導，因為即使是現在，你正在指導一個本應是平淡的前景季節性較強的季度。我們應該認為這是保守主義嗎？我們是否應該將其視為周期的頂峰？需求為何如此強勁？您正在增加供應，但您的銷售前景卻非常平淡。我認為這是一個非常令人困惑的信息，我希望您能深入了解如何解釋您的指導。我們是否以正確的方式閱讀它們？

Yes, Vivek. Thanks for the question. I think, first, I'd say perhaps normal seasonal patterns may not be the best measure to look at things in periods like this. Certainly, the last few quarters we would all agree have been unusual periods that we've gone through and as we continue to move through. So -- and as you said, the last few quarters have been exceptionally strong. Second quarter was certainly strong, both sequentially and year on year. So if you look at our guidance, it would suggest that next quarter will again be a very strong quarter. So -- and as you know, our guidance is the best estimate that we have at this time. So that's what we try to do and try to give you that insight. Do you have a follow-on?

是的，維維克。謝謝你的問題。我認為，首先，我想說正常的季節性模式可能不是在這樣的時期看待事物的最佳衡量標準。當然，我們都同意的最後幾個季度是我們經歷的不尋常時期，並且隨著我們繼續前進。所以——正如你所說，過去幾個季度表現異常強勁。第二季度無疑是強勁的，無論是環比還是同比。因此，如果您查看我們的指導，則表明下個季度將再次成為一個非常強勁的季度。所以 - 如您所知，我們的指導是我們目前的最佳估計。所以這就是我們試圖做的，並試圖給你這種洞察力。你有後續嗎？

Yes. So from what you said, I assume that you're again implying conservatism unless you suggest otherwise. But my real question is, when I look at the share buyback activity, it's been very low the last few quarters. And there are only a few reasons why that would be, right? One is the simplest reason that maybe the stock is perhaps not attractive at these valuations. Or it could be that you're preparing for some M&A. Or is it some large CapEx. Or some caution about macro. I'm trying to understand why is there such a material shift in terms of your return of free cash flow strategy, right? We understand the dividend part has been very strong, but the share buyback activity has been very low over the last -- almost a year now. So I would just appreciate your views as to why you are not buying back your stock at the pace at which you have historically done so.

是的。因此，根據您所說的，我假設您再次暗示保守主義，除非您另有建議。但我真正的問題是，當我查看股票回購活動時，過去幾個季度的回購活動非常低。這只有幾個原因，對吧？一個最簡單的原因是，股票在這些估值下可能沒有吸引力。或者，您可能正在為一些併購做準備。或者是一些大的資本支出。或者對宏有些謹慎。我試圖理解為什麼你的自由現金流回報策略會發生如此重大的轉變，對吧？我們知道股息部分非常強勁，但股票回購活動在過去幾乎一年中一直很低。因此，我非常感謝您對為什麼不以歷史上的速度回購股票的看法。

No, I'm happy to address that one, Vivek. So first, let me take you back to how we think about cash return, and you know us very well, you've followed us for many years. And you've heard us talk about this in capital management year in and year out. And our objective when it comes to cash return is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company. We do that through dividends as well as buybacks. Now that has never meant and doesn't mean that every single quarter or even every single year, where that return is going to be exactly 100%, right? If you look at our history over 15-plus years, it has been actually above 100%. So that shows our commitment to that, and that commitment has not changed. We are committed to returning all free cash flow to the owners of the company over time.

不，我很高興解決這個問題，Vivek。所以首先，讓我帶你回到我們如何看待現金回報，你非常了解我們，你已經關注我們很多年了。你已經聽到我們在資本管理中年復一年地談論這個問題。在現金返還方面，我們的目標是將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。我們通過股息和回購來做到這一點。現在這從來不意味著也不意味著每個季度甚至每年的回報率都將是 100%，對吧？如果您查看我們超過 15 年的歷史，它實際上已經超過 100%。這表明了我們對此的承諾，而且這種承諾沒有改變。我們承諾隨著時間的推移將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

And that next caller will be Toshiya Hari of Goldman Sachs.

下一個來電者將是高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I had two as well. I guess one clarification, Dave. I think when you talked about automotive, you said up sequentially in the second quarter. Did I catch that right? Did you not give a specific number for automotive?

我也有兩個。我想澄清一下，戴夫。我認為當您談到汽車時，您在第二季度按順序提到了汽車。我沒聽錯嗎？你沒有給出汽車的具體數字嗎？

That's correct. It was up low-single digits, Toshiya. Do you have another one?

這是正確的。 Toshiya，它是低個位數。你還有一個嗎？

Yes. So in terms of gross margins, I realize you guys don't run the business -- manage the business for gross margins. But clearly, you had a very, very strong quarter in Q2. And I know you don't guide gross margins going forward, but based on how you're thinking about utilization rates in your factories, given what you know about pricing in your business, both on the Analog side as well as the Embedded side going forward, how are you thinking about gross margins and kind of the OpEx leverage going forward in your business?

是的。因此，就毛利率而言，我意識到你們不經營業務——為毛利率管理業務。但很明顯，你在第二季度有一個非常非常強勁的季度。而且我知道您不會引導毛利率向前發展，而是根據您對工廠利用率的看法，考慮到您對業務定價的了解，無論是在模擬方面還是在嵌入式方面展望未來，您如何看待您業務中的毛利率和運營支出槓桿？

Yes. No. So first, let me emphasize the point you made. We do not focus on gross margins in how we run the business, just like you said. Our focus is on free cash flow generation, in fact, free cash flow per share and how we can grow that over the long term, right? Because we think ultimately, that is what drives value to the owners of the company. And you can do that at 67% margin. You can do it at a lower margin. You can do it a higher margin. It depends on a number of factors.

是的。不，首先，讓我強調你提出的觀點。就像你說的那樣，我們並不關注我們如何經營業務的毛利率。我們的重點是自由現金流的產生，實際上是每股自由現金流以及我們如何才能長期增長，對吧？因為我們最終認為，這才是為公司所有者帶來價值的動力。你可以以 67% 的利潤率做到這一點。你可以以較低的利潤來做到這一點。你可以做到更高的利潤。這取決於許多因素。

So -- and then to answer your specific question. As we have always guided over the long term, not any one quarter or even any one year, but over the long term, 70% to 75% fall through is the right way to -- generally speaking, the right way to look at -- to model the company as we go forward. So as you put whatever revenue expectation you have there and fall that through at about that rate, and you'll be in the ballpark.

所以 - 然後回答你的具體問題。正如我們一直在長期指導的那樣，不是任何一個季度甚至任何一年，而是從長期來看，70% 到 75% 的跌幅是正確的方法——一般來說，正確的看待—— - 在我們前進的過程中為公司建模。因此，當您將任何收入預期放在那裡並以大約該速度通過時，您就會在球場上。

And the next caller is going to be Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein Research.

下一位來電者將是 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。

So I know you don't think about running the business to gross margins, but I'm going to ask a gross margin question anyways. In (inaudible), you were at 65.2. Obviously, you did very strongly this quarter, but you said you had 6 cents of royalties that was unexpected. That should have been about 1.4 points of gross margin, as I understand it, if I do the math right. And I think you had something like $50 million in Austin costs last quarter that should have rolled off this quarter. That would have been another 100 basis points, give or take. So I'm actually wondering why gross margins were -- if I take out the royalties, they would have been up 60 basis points only with 100 basis points of costs that should have rolled off with a massive revenue increase. Like what's going on with -- what happened with gross margins in the current quarter given all of that?

所以我知道你不會考慮將業務運營到毛利率，但無論如何我都會問一個毛利率問題。在（聽不清），你是 65.2。顯然，您本季度的表現非常強勁，但您說您有 6 美分的版稅，這是出乎意料的。據我所知，如果我計算正確的話，這應該是大約 1.4 個百分點的毛利率。而且我認為上個季度奧斯汀的成本應該在本季度減少 5000 萬美元。那將是另外100個基點，給予或接受。所以我實際上想知道為什麼毛利率是 - 如果我扣除特許權使用費，它們只會上漲 60 個基點，而成本應該會隨著收入的大幅增長而下降 100 個基點。就像發生了什麼 - 考慮到所有這些，本季度的毛利率發生了什麼？

So Stacy, let me address one and then I have to ask your question. I didn't quite understand part of your question, but they...

所以史黛西，讓我來談談，然後我必須問你的問題。我不太明白你的問題的一部分，但他們...

Well maybe royalties weren't in gross margins. Maybe they...

好吧，也許特許權使用費不在毛利率中。也許他們...

Exactly. That's the part I didn't -- okay. So you were assuming royalty. All right. Okay, so let me address that first. We talk about royalty. It used to be in revenue and gross margin, but that was years ago. I think three or four years ago, we -- yes, we moved that to other income and expense. So that is in that line, other income and expense. So it has nothing to do with margins, it hasn't been for three or four years or so since we -- and the reason we moved that is very de minimis, it's a relatively small amount. It averages about $100 million a year. Of course, in the big scheme of things, given our revenue level is a relatively small amount, and we expect that to be -- continue to be small going forward.

確切地。那是我沒有的部分——好吧。所以你假設皇室。好的。好的，讓我先解決這個問題。我們談論皇室。它曾經是收入和毛利率，但那是幾年前的事了。我想三四年前，我們 - 是的，我們將其轉移到其他收入和支出中。這就是那條線，其他收入和支出。所以它與利潤無關，自從我們以來已經有三四年左右的時間了 - 我們移動的原因是非常微不足道的，它是一個相對較小的數量。平均每年約1億美元。當然，在大計劃中，鑑於我們的收入水平相對較小，我們預計未來會繼續保持較小的水平。

On the other part of your question, so last quarter, we had about a $50 million hit to gross margins. That was because of the winter storm in Texas. We did talk about that during the call. We mentioned it, and that was all in gross margin. So yes, you can adjust that, you can adjust however you wish for first quarter to get you the gross margin without that impact, right? And that may make more sense when you look at the trends. Does that answer your question?

關於你問題的另一部分，所以上個季度，我們的毛利率受到了大約 5000 萬美元的打擊。那是因為德克薩斯州的冬季風暴。我們確實在通話中談到了這一點。我們提到了它，這都是毛利率。所以是的，你可以調整它，你可以根據你的意願調整第一季度的毛利率，而不會有這種影響，對吧？當您查看趨勢時，這可能更有意義。這是否回答你的問題？

Yes, that answers it. That's very helpful.

是的，這就回答了。這很有幫助。

I think you have a second one, right? You still have a follow-up or...

我想你有第二個，對吧？你還有後續行動或...

So my follow-up, yes. You're guiding revenues flat and you're guiding EPS down slightly. So either gross margins are going down or OpEx is going up or -- I mean normally, OpEx, I think seasonally into Q3 would be down a few points. I guess, on those, are you expecting any sort of different OpEx trends into Q3 as you would normally see like in the normal Q3? Is there something else going on? Because normally, it's down a few points sequentially.

所以我的後續行動，是的。你引導收入持平，你引導每股收益略有下降。因此，要么毛利率下降，要么運營支出上升，或者——我的意思是通常情況下，運營支出，我認為進入第三季度的季節性會下降幾個點。我想，在這些方面，您是否期望在第三季度出現任何不同的 OpEx 趨勢，就像您通常在正常的第三季度看到的那樣？還有其他事情嗎？因為通常情況下，它會依次下降幾個點。

Yes. Well, so the reason that EPS is moving at the midpoint is the royalty that we just talked about, right? So you just take out that 6 cents from the EPS that we just delivered, you get to a more normalized EPS without that royalty and then compare that to the next quarter. And you'll see that there's nothing unusual there. Obviously, we only give revenue and EPS range. But if there was something unusual in between the lines, we would point it out, and there's nothing unusual.

是的。那麼，EPS 在中點移動的原因是我們剛才談到的版稅，對吧？因此，您只需從我們剛剛交付的每股收益中取出 6 美分，您就可以在沒有該版稅的情況下獲得更加標準化的每股收益，然後將其與下一季度進行比較。你會發現那裡沒有什麼不尋常的地方。顯然，我們只給出收入和每股收益範圍。但如果字裡行間有什麼不尋常的地方，我們會指出來，沒有什麼不尋常的。

Yes, nothing is changing much between the other lines.

是的，其他行之間沒有什麼變化。

Right. Yes.

對。是的。

And next, we have John Pitzer of Credit Suisse.

接下來是瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策。

Dave and Rafael, I just want to go back to the revenue guidance. Sort of flat at the midpoint with down sequentially. I guess I'm just trying to wrap my head around the fact that your deficiencies kind of increased in the June quarter. You said your hot spots went up. It sounds like demand is still relatively strong, and yet there's a part of your guidance that could be down sequentially, which I'm having a hard time grasping.

戴夫和拉斐爾，我只想回到收入指導。在中點有點平坦，依次向下。我想我只是想繞開這樣一個事實，即您的缺陷在 6 月季度有所增加。你說你的熱點上升了。聽起來需求仍然相對強勁，但您的部分指導可能會依次下降，我很難把握。

Dave, maybe you can talk about end markets. Are there any end markets that particularly look like they're cooling off sequentially into the calendar third quarter? Or why is that down sequentially? I think I have to go back to quite a bit of time to see you guys have a flat to down sequential Q3.

戴夫，也許你可以談談終端市場。是否有任何終端市場看起來特別像他們在日曆第三季度連續降溫？或者為什麼會依次下降？我想我必須回到相當長的一段時間才能看到你們第三季度的連續下降。

And John, when you say down sequentially, just to clarify, are you saying that part of our range would imply that it could be down and the other part would imply that it will be up?

約翰，當你按順序說向下時，只是為了澄清，你是說我們範圍的一部分暗示它可能向下，而另一部分暗示它會向上嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's what -- just to clarify that part of the question. I got you. Yes. So yes, John, if there's something that's unusual going on within an end market or region or product area, we've always provided insight into that to help understand an outlook or even something that's happened in a current quarter. I'll just say that there's nothing unusual like that, that we feel that we would need to explain what's going on. I think that as I mentioned earlier to Vivek's question on the topic, seasonality probably isn't the best thing to be looking at as we've been moving through the last few quarters. And I would say, with that range implies that the revenue still -- will still be strong. So do you have a follow-on?

就是這樣——只是為了澄清問題的那一部分。我接到你了。是的。所以是的，約翰，如果在終端市場、地區或產品領域發生了不尋常的事情，我們總是提供洞察力，以幫助了解前景，甚至是當前季度發生的事情。我只想說沒有什麼不尋常的，我們覺得我們需要解釋發生了什麼。我認為，正如我之前在 Vivek 關於該主題的問題中提到的那樣，季節性可能不是最好的考慮因素，因為我們一直在經歷過去幾個季度。我想說，這個範圍意味著收入仍然 - 仍然會很強勁。那你有後續嗎？

Yes. Just as my follow-on. On RFAB2, I'm just curious with the proposed purchase of Lehi, should we think about sort of the building going on as planned, the pilot line going on as planned but capacity at RFAB2 kind of slowed? Or how do we think about kind of now your mix of capacity as Lehi comes in next year and what that means for CapEx and the ramp of RFAB2?

是的。就像我的後續。關於 RFAB2，我只是對收購 Lehi 的提議感到好奇，我們是否應該考慮一下建築物按計劃進行，試驗線按計劃進行但 RFAB2 的產能有所放緩？或者我們如何看待明年 Lehi 的產能組合以及這對資本支出和 RFAB2 的增長意味著什麼？

Yes. No, let me tell you about that. So first, let me step back, remind everyone objective when it comes to CapEx is to invest to support new technology development and revenue growth and specifically extending our low-cost manufacturing advantage, primarily 300-millimeter, right? So we have talked about that for a long time and it's a core part of our strategy, one of our competitive advantages having that manufacturing and technology advantage. RFAB2 will be the third 300-millimeter factory. Lehi will be our fourth 300-millimeter factory. RFAB2 will become operational sometime in the middle of next year. That's when the shell will be completed, and then we'll be deploying equipment there. And then we incur in CapEx because of that. So CapEx, as I said at the last call, will be higher, both in absolute dollars and as a percent of revenue because of that.

是的。不，讓我告訴你。所以首先，讓我退後一步，提醒大家在資本支出方面的目標是投資以支持新技術開發和收入增長，特別是擴大我們的低成本製造優勢，主要是 300 毫米，對嗎？因此，我們已經討論了很長時間，這是我們戰略的核心部分，是我們具有製造和技術優勢的競爭優勢之一。 RFAB2 將是第三家 300 毫米工廠。 Lehi 將是我們的第四家 300 毫米工廠。 RFAB2 將在明年年中的某個時候投入使用。那時外殼將完成，然後我們將在那裡部署設備。然後我們因此產生了資本支出。因此，正如我在上次電話會議上所說，資本支出將會更高，無論是絕對美元還是因此佔收入的百分比。

And then on top of that, add Lehi, right, which we didn't have last quarter when we had talked -- when we had the earnings call. So now Lehi is going to be on top of that. That's a $900 million purchase price, which will run to CapEx. But then in addition to that factory, it's ready for production once we qualify, but at relatively low volumes, right? We still have to add CapEx to that factory to take it to the volumes that we want, and that will happen over time. And think of that CapEx is probably going to be -- it's probably going to run about half of what RFAB2 CapEx will run. I'm talking over years, right, as we deploy equipment there. And both of those will add to the strength -- or will strengthen our competitive advantage of manufacturing and technology with two more 300-millimeter factories.

然後最重要的是，加上Lehi，對，我們在上個季度討論時沒有 - 當我們召開財報電話會議時。所以現在李海將在這之上。這是 9 億美元的購買價格，將用於資本支出。但是除了那家工廠之外，一旦我們獲得資格，它就可以投入生產了，但產量相對較低，對吧？我們仍然必須將資本支出添加到該工廠，以使其達到我們想要的數量，這將隨著時間的推移而發生。想想資本支出可能會 - 它可能會運行大約一半的 RFAB2 資本支出將運行。我說的是多年，對，因為我們在那裡部署設備。這兩者都將增加實力——或者將通過另外兩家 300 毫米工廠加強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢。

And that will be Blayne Curtis of Barclays.

那將是巴克萊的 Blayne Curtis。

Actually, I just want to ask on -- I know you're not going to probably guide December, but just kind of any feel you can for that quarter? Obviously, seasonality has been out the window, it's typically a down quarter. Just trying to get a better handle on the back half here, obviously, the flattening markets but at much higher levels. Anything you can throw out there for December.

實際上，我只是想問一下——我知道你可能不會指導 12 月，但你覺得那個季度可以嗎？顯然，季節性已經不在了，它通常是一個下降的季度。只是想更好地處理這裡的後半部分，顯然，市場趨於平緩，但水平要高得多。任何你可以在 12 月扔掉的東西。

Yes, Blayne. And certainly, I know there's lots of speculations on how long the strong demand will last. And certainly, we've read the ranges that it's going to end soon and others that say is going to continue for quite some time. And obviously, as you stated, we're not going to forecast the fourth quarter or even comment on how long the cycle lasts because, honestly, as you know, we don't know. I don't think anyone knows.

是的，布萊恩。當然，我知道有很多關於強勁需求將持續多久的猜測。當然，我們已經閱讀了它將很快結束的範圍以及其他說將持續相當長一段時間的範圍。顯然，正如您所說，我們不會預測第四季度，甚至不會評論周期持續多長時間，因為老實說，正如您所知，我們不知道。我想沒有人知道。

But I think we can frame how the actions that we've taken and our approach as we've gone through the cycle. And in the first phase, you've seen us accelerate into the widely anticipated decline. And that really enabled us to gain ground. And really, in the second phase, we're working to ensure that we gain strategic ground, particularly in industrial and automotive. And that -- those gains will reward us for years to come. And independent of that, we're investing for the long term. So some of the obvious things that you can see are the new manufacturing investments in RFAB2 -- if you're down here in Texas, you'll see cranes up over the building; I think I counted six or seven at the max that were up over that -- the addition of Lehi, some of the less visible ones are the R&D investments and new capabilities at TI.com, and those investments are continuing. So we won't -- we'll go through cycles. We won't be able to predict it, but we can make the place stronger, we can continue to invest in our competitive advantages. So do you have a follow-on?

但我認為我們可以確定我們在整個週期中採取的行動和方法。在第一階段，您已經看到我們加速進入人們普遍預期的衰退。這確實使我們能夠取得進展。實際上，在第二階段，我們正在努力確保我們獲得戰略地位，特別是在工業和汽車領域。而且 - 這些收益將在未來幾年獎勵我們。除此之外，我們正在進行長期投資。所以你可以看到一些顯而易見的事情是對 RFAB2 的新製造投資——如果你在德克薩斯州這裡，你會看到大樓上空的起重機；我想我最多算了六到七次——除了 Lehi，一些不太明顯的是 TI.com 的研發投資和新功能，這些投資還在繼續。所以我們不會——我們會經歷週期。我們無法預測，但我們可以讓這個地方變得更強大，我們可以繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢。那你有後續嗎？

Yes. I just wanted to ask you on inventory levels, obviously, way down at these sales levels on a days inventory, but your ability to grow that absolute amount and if you're able to do that in September.

是的。我只是想問你庫存水平，顯然，在這些銷售水平上的天庫存，但你增加這個絕對數量的能力，以及你是否能夠在 9 月份做到這一點。

I'll start, and Dave, you want to follow up. But inventory levels, first, let me remind everyone the objective there, maintain high levels of customer satisfaction while minimizing obsolescence, which, frankly, is not an issue given our business model. We are clearly below these higher levels, just like we said during the prepared remarks, right? We're running about 111 days, and our target is 130 to 190 days. That's part of the reason why we have the hot spots that we talked about. At the same time, I tell you, we -- go back to second quarter last year, when the pandemic was starting, in fact, March of last year, everybody -- all our competitors were decreasing their inventory levels, slowing down factories. We went the other way, right? We maintained, and in fact, increased our production levels. We increased our inventory levels. They went from about 140 days to 160 some, 170 days almost. And that, along with our business strategy, our business model helped put us in a great position to take advantage of the situation and has helped us do significantly better than our competitors over the last three or four quarters, right?

我會開始，戴夫，你想跟進。但庫存水平，首先，讓我提醒每個人的目標是保持高水平的客戶滿意度，同時盡量減少過時，坦率地說，考慮到我們的商業模式，這不是問題。就像我們在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，我們顯然低於這些更高的水平，對吧？我們運行大約 111 天，我們的目標是 130 到 190 天。這就是我們討論熱點的部分原因。同時，我告訴你，我們——回到去年第二季度，大流行開始的時候，實際上是去年 3 月，每個人——我們所有的競爭對手都在降低庫存水平，減緩工廠生產。我們走了另一條路，對吧？我們保持並且實際上提高了我們的生產水平。我們提高了庫存水平。他們從大約 140 天到 160 天，差不多 170 天。而且，連同我們的業務戰略，我們的業務模式幫助我們處於有利位置，以利用這種情況，並幫助我們在過去三四個季度中比我們的競爭對手做得更好，對吧？

But we have gotten to a point where, yes, things are -- inventory is now below these higher levels. We'll continue to add incremental capacity as we have talked about, that is in all of our factories, but especially RFAB1. But the next bigger tranche of capacity will come in with RFAB2, as we talked about earlier. Once that is operational sometime in second quarter of next year, then -- well, that's when we finish and will produce revenue sometime in the second half of next year, then that will add a significant amount of capacity. And then shortly after that, Lehi will also come in line for additional revenue capacity there.

但是我們已經到了一個地步，是的，事情是——庫存現在低於這些更高的水平。正如我們所說，我們將繼續增加我們所有工廠的增量產能，尤其是 RFAB1。但正如我們之前談到的，下一個更大的容量部分將來自 RFAB2。一旦它在明年第二季度的某個時間投入運營，那麼——嗯，那是我們完成並在明年下半年某個時候產生收入的時候，那麼這將增加大量的產能。不久之後，Lehi 也將在那裡獲得額外的收入能力。

Yes. And maybe just quickly what I might add to that. Obviously, whenever things do slow, we will then use that period of time to rebuild inventories and those positions to be able to support growth in the future, so.

是的。也許很快我會添加一些內容。顯然，只要情況放緩，我們就會利用這段時間來重建庫存和這些頭寸，以便能夠支持未來的增長，所以。

And I'll just add one more thing. Both RFAB2 and Lehi, those are long-term plays, right? These are -- this is to strengthen our manufacturing advantage, owning our own manufacturing, which clearly has proven over the last 1.5 years, we knew that already, but it has proven that -- how important that is in the current environment. In the current environment, they're going to happen to help in the medium term, most likely. But if they don't, if things slow down and it doesn't work out that way, that is completely fine with us. That's not why we are equipping those factories. That's not why we bought -- why we're buying Lehi. It's for the long-term positioning of the company to support long-term revenue growth in both Analog and Embedded.

我再補充一件事。 RFAB2 和 Lehi 都是長期的遊戲，對吧？這些是 - 這是為了加強我們的製造優勢，擁有我們自己的製造，這在過去的 1.5 年中顯然已經證明，我們已經知道，但它已經證明 - 在當前環境中這是多麼重要。在當前環境下，它們很可能會在中期提供幫助。但是，如果他們不這樣做，如果事情放慢了速度並且結果不是那樣，那對我們來說完全沒問題。這不是我們裝備這些工廠的原因。這不是我們購買的原因——我們購買李海的原因。公司的長期定位是支持模擬和嵌入式領域的長期收入增長。

And next, we will go to Ambrish Srivastava of BMO.

接下來，我們將前往 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava。

Rafael and Dave, I had a question on free cash flow per share, and you guys know I don't look at it on a quarterly basis. So if I look at the last two years, if I look at 2020, free cash flow per share, down 3%. 2019, it was flat. And I know that if I look at this year on a trailing 12-month basis, it is up double digits. But it has lagged -- sorry for the background noise, it always happens when I'm on a conference call. If I look at the trailing 12 months and then -- so that's in line with what you have said consistently. But should we expect this to come back to the double digit on an annualized basis? What's the right way to think about the lag over the last two years? And how should we think about it going forward?

拉斐爾和戴夫，我有一個關於每股自由現金流的問題，你們知道我不會按季度查看。因此，如果我看看過去兩年，如果我看看 2020 年，每股自由現金流下降了 3%。 2019，它是平的。而且我知道，如果我在過去 12 個月的基礎上看今年，它會上升兩位數。但它已經滯後了——對於背景噪音，我很抱歉，它總是在我參加電話會議時發生。如果我查看過去的 12 個月，那麼這與您一貫所說的一致。但是我們是否應該期望這會在年化基礎上回到兩位數？如何正確看待過去兩年的滯後？我們應該如何看待它的未來？

Yes. This is one -- most financial metrics are this way too, but you want to look at this over the long term, right? Any one quarter or even any one year, they could be a little choppy. You mentioned a couple of years when 2019 and even 2020, where that trajectory does not represent the longer term. And arguably, the same thing for 2021, right, or the trailing 12-month number that you just quoted, right? So you want to look at this over the long term. And that's how we look at it, and that's what's going to ultimately drive value for the owners of the company, right?

是的。這是一個——大多數財務指標也是如此，但你想從長遠來看，對吧？任何一個季度甚至任何一年，它們都可能有點波濤洶湧。您提到了 2019 年甚至 2020 年的幾年，該軌跡並不代表長期。可以說，2021 年也是如此，對吧，或者你剛剛引用的過去 12 個月的數字，對吧？所以你想從長遠來看這個。這就是我們看待它的方式，這就是最終為公司所有者帶來價值的東西，對吧？

Okay. Do you have a follow-on?

好的。你有後續嗎？

Yes, I did. With all the tightness and contrast this -- the way you guys have managed the business, and these shares should probably don't show up that quickly because these designs are such long-lasting and they don't change at a time. Are you seeing any discernible change in your design-in activity as a result of what we've seen from your peers with the tightness and you managing your lead times and inventory much better than some of your peers?

是的，我做到了。有了所有的緊密性和對比——你們管理業務的方式，這些份額可能不會那麼快出現，因為這些設計是如此持久，而且它們不會一次改變。由於我們從您的同行那裡看到的緊密性，您是否看到您的設計活動有任何明顯的變化，並且您比一些同行更好地管理您的交貨時間和庫存？

Yes, I'll start off, and Rafael, if you want to add. I would say that, as you know, Ambrish, we have started on the journey to have closer direct relationships with customers really eight -- seven, eight years ago with our investments in TI.com, investments in our sales applications teams, investments in processes and how we do business and just our structure inside of the company.

是的，如果你想補充的話，我將開始，還有 Rafael。我想說的是，正如您所知，Ambrish，我們已經開始了與客戶建立更密切直接關係的旅程，實際上是八、七、八年前，我們投資了 TI.com，投資了我們的銷售應用團隊，投資了流程以及我們如何開展業務以及我們在公司內部的結構。

And last year, you saw a pretty major step of taking more customers direct and operating with fewer distributors as well as transacting business through TI.com. So you kind of mix that together with the pandemic and our ability to do virtual sales calls, I think all those things have positioned us well strategically, especially in markets like industrial, automotive, those markets where we want to gain that strategic ground. You couple that with availability. And like you say, things don't move quickly. But the supply shortages really started showing up in the beginning of 2020, took a break in the first or second quarter when the pandemic hit and then reaccelerated after that. So there are cases that are unusual, but there are cases where customers redesign boards just because of availability. I'll describe that as an outlier, but we do see cases of that. But we see more cases where you have designs that are being intersected as they come through. And again, our sales teams are engaged from production all the way back into engineering. That visibility is a great strategic advantage. And those benefits, again, will be things that will pay rewards for us for a long time to come. Okay. Thank you, Ambrish. And I think we've got time for one last caller.

去年，您看到了一個相當重要的步驟，即直接吸引更多客戶並使用更少的分銷商進行運營，以及通過 TI.com 進行業務交易。因此，您將其與大流行病和我們進行虛擬銷售電話的能力結合在一起，我認為所有這些都使我們在戰略上處於有利地位，尤其是在工業、汽車等市場，以及我們希望獲得戰略基礎的那些市場。您將其與可用性相結合。就像你說的，事情不會很快發生。但供應短缺在 2020 年初真正開始顯現，在第一季度或第二季度疫情爆發時有所緩解，之後又重新加速。所以有些情況是不尋常的，但有些情況下客戶只是因為可用性而重新設計電路板。我將其描述為異常值，但我們確實看到了這種情況。但是我們看到更多的案例，你的設計在通過時被交叉。再一次，我們的銷售團隊從生產一直到工程。這種可見性是一個巨大的戰略優勢。同樣，這些好處將在很長一段時間內為我們帶來回報。好的。謝謝你，安布里什。我想我們還有時間接聽最後一位來電者。

And that caller will be Chris Danely of Citi Group.

來電者將是花旗集團的 Chris Danely。

Dave, by the way, thanks for letting the other analysts go first and beat you up on the flat guidance, so I don't have to. My question is on the auto revenue. So if we look at the headlines and talk to the folks in the auto supply chain, there's still a lot of shortages, et cetera, et cetera, out there. And I think your revenue is only slightly up. So can you just explain the discrepancy? It seems like it would be up a little bit more than that, if there's all these folks clamoring for parts out there.

順便說一句，戴夫，感謝您讓其他分析師先走，並在平坦的指導上擊敗您，所以我不必這樣做。我的問題是關於汽車收入的。因此，如果我們查看頭條新聞並與汽車供應鏈中的人們交談，仍然存在很多短缺，等等等等。而且我認為您的收入僅略有增加。那麼你能解釋一下差異嗎？如果所有這些人都在吵著要零件的話，它似乎會比這多一點。

Well, I'd point out it over doubled from a year ago, Chris. So it's a little bit more than up a little bit. And I think you're pointing to the sequential. But again, last quarter, it was up over 25% from pre-pandemic levels. I think we're shipping 25% more cars from pre-pandemic levels, right? So our shipments into automotive are up, and up significantly. And we continue to add capacity and continue to -- we believe we're gaining share there as well. You got to measure it over time. But yes, so we are -- our shipments are up there and up strong. So do you have a follow-on?

好吧，克里斯，我要指出它比一年前翻了一番。所以它比上升一點點多一點。我認為你指的是順序。但同樣，上個季度，它比大流行前的水平上漲了 25% 以上。我認為我們的汽車出貨量比大流行前的水平增加了 25%，對吧？因此，我們在汽車領域的出貨量增加了，而且顯著增加。我們繼續增加容量並繼續 - 我們相信我們也在那裡獲得份額。你必須隨著時間的推移來衡量它。但是，是的，所以我們是 - 我們的出貨量在那裡並且強勁。那你有後續嗎？

Yes. Just, I guess, a hot spot question. So you said that you're seeing a few more hot spots last quarter. Do you think that the situation gets a little bit worse this quarter? Or do you think it gets better? When do you guys think you'll start to get a handle on all these sort of supply issues out there, I guess?

是的。只是，我猜，一個熱點問題。所以你說你在上個季度看到了更多的熱點。您認為本季度情況會變得更糟嗎？或者你認為它會變得更好？我猜你們認為什麼時候才能開始處理所有這些供應問題？

Chris, it's going to depend on demand, right? We are -- on the supply side, as we said, we are adding capacity incrementally. We have been and we'll continue to do that. The bigger tranche of capacity doesn't come in until about a year from now, right, as we just talked about with RFAB2. And then six months later with Lehi. So it will be a while before we have big tranches of capacity coming online. So it's going to depend on demand.

克里斯，這將取決於需求，對吧？正如我們所說，在供應方面，我們正在逐步增加產能。我們一直這樣做，我們將繼續這樣做。更大的容量直到大約一年後才會出現，對，正如我們剛剛談到的 RFAB2。然後六個月後和李海在一起。因此，我們還需要一段時間才能有大量容量上線。所以這將取決於需求。

At the end of the day, we don't fully control that. It's more of a macro situation. But we are better prepared than our peers and have been in both the tactical decisions we have made during the pandemic but more importantly, our business model and how we run the company, specifically owning our own manufacturing, that has been key in this whole process. And we're just really doubling down on that with what we're doing with all those factories that we just talked about.

歸根結底，我們並不能完全控制它。這更多的是宏觀情況。但我們比同行準備得更充分，我們在大流行期間做出的戰術決策都參與其中，但更重要的是，我們的商業模式以及我們經營公司的方式，特別是擁有自己的製造，這在整個過程中都是關鍵.我們只是在我們剛剛談到的所有工廠所做的事情上加倍努力。

Thank you, Chris. Rafael, do you want to wrap first?

謝謝你，克里斯。拉斐爾，你要先換行嗎？

Yes. I'll go ahead and wrap up. So let me just emphasize what we have said previously. At our core, we're engineers, and technology is the foundation of our company, but ultimately, our objective and the best metric to measure progress and generate long-term value for owners is the growth of free cash flow per share.

是的。我會繼續總結。所以讓我強調一下我們之前所說的。我們的核心是工程師，技術是我們公司的基礎，但歸根結底，我們衡量進展和為所有者創造長期價值的目標和最佳指標是每股自由現金流的增長。

While we strive to achieve our objective, we will continue to pursue our three ambitions: We will act like owners who will own the company for decades; we will adapt and succeed in a world that's ever changing; and we will be a company that we are personally proud to be a part of and would want as our neighbor. When we're successful, our employees, customers, communities and owners all benefit. Thank you, and have a good evening.

在努力實現目標的同時，我們將繼續追求我們的三個抱負：我們將像擁有公司數十年的所有者一樣行事；我們將適應瞬息萬變的世界並取得成功；我們將成為一家讓我們感到自豪的公司，並希望成為我們的鄰居。當我們成功時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和業主都會受益。謝謝你，祝你晚上愉快。

This concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。