德州儀器 (TXN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter '21 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dave Pahl. Please go ahead, sir.

美好的一天，歡迎參加德州儀器公司 21 年第四季度收益發布電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。在這個時候，我想把會議交給 Dave Pahl 先生。請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2021 earnings conference call. Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2021 年收益電話會議。 TI 首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天與我同在。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web.

對於錯過發布的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。該電話正在網絡上進行現場直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括涉及風險和不確定性的前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前的預期存在重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的財報中包含的有關前瞻性陳述的通知以及 TI 最近提交給 SEC 的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars. We plan to hold a call for our capital management update on February 3 at 10 a.m. Central time. Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insight into our business and our approach to capital allocation.

首先，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。我們計劃在中部時間 2 月 3 日上午 10 點召開資本管理更新電話會議。與我們過去所做的類似，Rafael 和我將總結我們的進展，並對我們的業務和資本配置方法提供一些見解。

For today's call, let me summarize what Rafael and I will be reviewing. I'll start with fourth quarter revenue results, including some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets. I'll then provide the annual summary of revenue breakout by end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, some insights into one-time items and our guidance for first quarter 2022.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。我將從第四季度的收入結果開始，包括我們在客戶和市場方面看到的一些細節。然後，我將提供按終端市場劃分的收入突破的年度摘要。最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、對一次性項目的一些見解以及我們對 2022 年第一季度的指導。

Starting with fourth quarter results and the market environment: The company's revenue grew 19% year over year, driven by strong demand in the industrial and automotive markets. Analog revenue grew 20% year over year, and Embedded Processing grew 6%. Our Other segment grew 35% from the year-ago quarter.

從第四季度業績和市場環境開始：在工業和汽車市場強勁需求的推動下，公司收入同比增長 19%。模擬收入同比增長 20%，嵌入式處理增長 6%。我們的其他部門比去年同期增長了 35%。

Let me now comment on the current environment to provide some context of what we're seeing with our customers and markets. Overall, the quarter came in stronger than we expected. The strength was across most product families, end markets and geographies.

現在讓我對當前環境發表評論，以提供一些我們在客戶和市場中看到的背景。總體而言，本季度的表現強於我們的預期。優勢遍及大多數產品系列、終端市場和地區。

The market environment is similar to what we reported 90 days ago. Lead times for the majority of our products remain stable, but hot spots continue to exist. However, customers continue to be selective in their expedite requests, increasingly focusing on products that complete a matched set rather than expediting products across the board. This behavior is not specific to any product family, end market or geography.

市場環境與我們 90 天前報導的情況相似。我們大多數產品的交貨時間保持穩定，但熱點仍然存在。然而，客戶在他們的加急請求中仍然是有選擇性的，越來越多地關注完成匹配的產品，而不是全面加急產品。這種行為並不特定於任何產品系列、終端市場或地域。

Discussions with customers confirm a high level of interest in our commitment to expanding our internal manufacturing capacity roadmap, including 300-millimeter wafer fabs RFAB2 and LFAB, our recently announced plans for a multi-fab site in Sherman, Texas, and the associated assembly test expansions. These investments to strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage will provide lower cost and greater control of our supply chain. And while there is a growing recognition that the near-term supply/demand imbalance will end at some point, the secular growth of semiconductor content per system will continue to increase, and this requires a robust manufacturing capacity roadmap for 2025 and beyond.

與客戶的討論證實了我們對擴大內部製造能力路線圖的承諾的高度興趣，包括 300 毫米晶圓廠 RFAB2 和 LFAB、我們最近宣布的德克薩斯州謝爾曼多工廠的計劃以及相關的組裝測試擴展。這些加強我們的製造和技術競爭優勢的投資將降低成本並更好地控制我們的供應鏈。儘管人們越來越認識到短期供需失衡將在某個時候結束，但每個系統的半導體含量的長期增長將繼續增加，這需要一個強大的 2025 年及以後的製造能力路線圖。

Moving on, I'll now provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market from the year-ago quarter.

繼續前進，我現在將提供一些關於去年第四季度終端市場收入的見解。

First, the industrial market was up about 40%, driven by broad-based strength across all sectors.

首先，工業市場上漲了約 40%，這得益於所有行業的廣泛走強。

The automotive market was up high-single digits with strength in most sectors.

汽車市場以高個位數上漲，大多數行業都表現強勁。

Personal electronics was down upper-single digits, off a strong compare from a year ago.

與一年前相比，個人電子產品下降了個位數以上。

Next, communications equipment was up about 25%.

其次，通信設備上漲了約 25%。

Finally, enterprise systems was up about 50% off a weak compare from a year ago, driven primarily by data center and enterprise computing.

最後，企業系統較一年前的疲軟增長了約 50%，主要受數據中心和企業計算的推動。

And lastly, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2021. We break our end markets into six categories that are grouped by their life cycles and market characteristics. The six end markets are industrial; automotive; personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems; and other, which is primarily calculators.

最後，就像我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述 2021 年的收入。我們將終端市場分為六類，按其生命週期和市場特徵分組。六個終端市場是工業；汽車；個人電子產品，包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等產品；通訊設備；企業系統；和其他，主要是計算器。

As a percentage of revenue for the year, industrial was 41%; automotive 21%; personal electronics 24%; communications equipment 6%; enterprise systems 6%; and other was 2%.

工業佔當年收入的百分比為 41%；汽車 21%；個人電子產品 24%；通訊設備 6%；企業系統 6%；其他為 2%。

In 2021, industrial and automotive combined made up 62% of TI's revenue, up about five percentage points from 2020 and up from 42% from 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products smarter, safer, more connected and more efficient. These trends have resulted and will continue to result in growing chip content per application, which will drive faster growth compared to the other markets.

2021 年，工業和汽車總收入佔 TI 收入的 62%，比 2020 年增長約 5 個百分點，比 2013 年的 42% 增長。我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機遇，但我們將戰略重點放在工業和汽車上.我們的工業和汽車客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的最終產品更智能、更安全、更互聯和更高效。這些趨勢已經並將繼續導致每個應用程序的芯片內容不斷增長，與其他市場相比，這將推動更快的增長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $3.4 billion, or 69% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit increased, primarily due to higher revenue. Gross profit margin increased 440 basis points.

本季度毛利潤為 34 億美元，佔收入的 69%。與一年前相比，毛利潤有所增加，主要是由於收入增加。毛利率增加 440 個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $793 million, up 1% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 18% of revenue.

本季度的運營費用為 7.93 億美元，同比增長 1%，與預期相符。在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 18%。

For the year, we have invested $1.6 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation. We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term.

這一年，我們在研發上投入了 16 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。我們對我們將資金分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續增長我們的收入。

Restructuring charges were $54 million in the quarter. This expense is driven by the Lehi wafer fab purchase we closed in October.

本季度的重組費用為 5400 萬美元。這筆費用是由我們在 10 月關閉的 Lehi 晶圓廠購買推動的。

Operating profit was $2.5 billion, or 52% of revenue. Operating profit was up 38% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤為 25 億美元，佔收入的 52%。營業利潤較去年同期增長 38%。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $2.1 billion, or $2.27 per share, which included a 4-cent cost that was not in our prior outlook, primarily due to the purchase I discussed earlier.

第四季度的淨收入為 21 億美元，即每股 2.27 美元，其中包括我們之前展望中沒有的 4 美分成本，這主要是由於我之前討論過的購買。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $2.4 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.3 billion in the quarter, which included about $900 million for the LFAB purchase. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.3 billion, up 15% from a year ago.

本季度運營現金流為 24 億美元。本季度的資本支出為 13 億美元，其中包括約 9 億美元用於購買 LFAB。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 63 億美元，比一年前增長 15%。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends. We have increased our dividend per share by 13%, marking our 18th year of dividend increases. For the year, our dividend represented 62% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息。我們將每股股息增加了 13%，這是我們第 18 年增加股息。全年，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 62%，突顯了其可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter. Total debt outstanding was $7.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.6%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，截至第四季度末有 97 億美元的現金和短期投資。未償債務總額為 78 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 2.6%。

Inventory days were 116, up four days sequentially, and remain below desired levels.

庫存天數為 116 天，環比增加四天，但仍低於預期水平。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。

In 2021, cash flow from operations was $8.8 billion. Capital expenditures were $2.5 billion, or 13% of revenue. Free cash flow for 2021 was $6.3 billion, or 34% of revenue. Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model. As we have said, we believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value.

2021 年，運營現金流為 88 億美元。資本支出為 25 億美元，佔收入的 13%。 2021 年的自由現金流為 63 億美元，佔收入的 34%。我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。正如我們所說，我們認為每股自由現金流的增長是長期價值的主要驅動力。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion and earnings per share in the range of $2.01 to $2.29.

談到我們對第一季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入在 45 億美元至 49 億美元之間，每股收益在 2.01 美元至 2.29 美元之間。

We expect our 2022 annual operating tax rate to continue to be about 14% and our effective tax rate about a percentage point lower than that. This is based on current tax law and would be about the same as we saw in 2021.

我們預計我們 2022 年的年度營業稅率將繼續保持在 14% 左右，我們的有效稅率將比此低一個百分點左右。這是基於現行稅法的，與我們在 2021 年看到的大致相同。

Next, let me help you model our expectation for expenses for the LFAB purchase. As we have said, we expect to have about $75 million of cost per quarter until we start production, which is still expected in early 2023. These costs continue to be mostly reflected in the Restructuring line on the P&L, so it will be visible each quarter to you, and therefore part of our operating profit results. Once the facility begins production, these costs will move and be primarily reflected in cost of revenue.

接下來，讓我幫助您模擬我們對 LFAB 購買費用的預期。正如我們所說，在我們開始生產之前，我們預計每季度的成本約為 7500 萬美元，預計仍將在 2023 年初進行。這些成本繼續主要反映在損益表的重組行中，因此每個都可以看到季度給您，因此是我們營業利潤的一部分。一旦設施開始生產，這些成本將轉移並主要反映在收入成本中。

As I close, let me explain why we're so excited about these capacity investments, as they strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage.

在我結束的時候，讓我解釋一下為什麼我們對這些產能投資如此興奮，因為它們加強了我們的製造和技術競爭優勢。

First, we have significant 300-millimeter capacity coming online with RFAB2 and LFAB in 2022 and 2023. Second, with the announcement of the Sherman complex, we have a 300-millimeter roadmap to support growth from 2025 to 2035. Third, customers are excited that our capacity investments are in 45-nanometer to 130-nanometer process technologies that are optimized for analog and embedded and will support their growth in the decades ahead.

首先，我們將在 2022 年和 2023 年與 RFAB2 和 LFAB 一起上線大量 300 毫米產能。其次，隨著謝爾曼綜合體的宣布，我們制定了 300 毫米路線圖，以支持 2025 年至 2035 年的增長。第三，客戶很興奮我們的產能投資在 45 納米到 130 納米的工藝技術上，這些工藝技術針對模擬和嵌入式進行了優化，並將支持它們在未來幾十年的增長。

It is clear that owning and controlling our manufacturing and technology will give us both lower cost and greater control of our supply chain. It is with this confidence we look forward to sharing with you more details of our plans in our capital management call next week.

很明顯，擁有和控制我們的製造和技術將使我們既能降低成本，又能更好地控制我們的供應鏈。懷著這種信心，我們期待在下週的資本管理電話會議上與您分享我們計劃的更多細節。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以打開排隊提問。 （操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們將回答瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer 提出的第一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid results. Dave and Rafael, last quarter was the first quarter you talked about customers being a little bit more selective about their ordering patterns. And that was somewhat reflected in upside in September, which was a little bit muted. You characterized Q4 as being the same, but the upside was a little bit stronger. I'm wondering if you could help me just square that circle as to what drove the magnitude of upside in the December quarter above that of September.

祝賀你取得了堅實的成果。戴夫和拉斐爾，上個季度是你們談到客戶對他們的訂購模式更加挑剔的第一季度。這在一定程度上反映在 9 月份的上漲中，但上漲幅度有點低。您將 Q4 描述為相同，但上行空間要強一些。我想知道你是否可以幫助我把這個圈子弄清楚是什麼推動了 12 月季度的上漲幅度高於 9 月的幅度。

Yes, John, I'll take that. Yes, the upside that we saw in the fourth quarter was very, very broad-based. So as we described it, it was across our product families, across our end markets and geography. So it really wasn't one thing that was driving it, and it was very broad-based. So that was the difference that we saw between last quarter and this quarter. Do you have a follow-up?

是的，約翰，我會接受的。是的，我們在第四季度看到的上漲空間非常非常廣泛。因此，正如我們所描述的，它遍及我們的產品系列、終端市場和地域。所以它真的不是一件事在推動它，而且它的基礎非常廣泛。這就是我們在上個季度和本季度看到的差異。你有後續嗎？

Yes. Just as a follow-up, notwithstanding the impressive growth you put up in your Analog business in calendar year '21, if I comp that against the SIA, it's going to end up having been an unusual year for you guys because you would have undergrown the industry by a fairly wide margin, at least versus history. And I'm wondering if you can help me understand, is that a function of peers being a bit more aggressive on pricing menu? Is it something that we shouldn't take to the trend? Or how do you explain the difference there?

是的。作為後續行動，儘管您在 21 日曆年在模擬業務中取得了令人矚目的增長，但如果我將其與 SIA 進行比較，那麼對於你們來說，這將是不尋常的一年，因為您會發育不全至少與歷史相比，該行業的差距相當大。我想知道您是否可以幫助我理解，這是同行在定價菜單上更具侵略性的一種功能嗎？這是我們不應該接受趨勢的東西嗎？或者你如何解釋那裡的區別？

Yes. I think whenever we look at the SIA data, regardless of which direction that it's trending, you'll know that I'll always be consistent -- that I say never look at one quarter, sometimes even one year, on specifics. That really needs to be something that is looked at over time, especially we go through a period of the last four, six quarters through COVID and the choppiness that's been going on, I'd just be real careful to get too precise on measuring things in this type of time period. So I think with our competitive advantages, with the investments that we're making, we're very confident that we're making progress in the markets that we're making those investments. And we really believe that we've made progress over this time period. Thank you, John.

是的。我認為，每當我們查看 SIA 數據時，無論其趨勢如何，您都會知道我將始終保持一致——我說永遠不要查看一個季度，有時甚至是一年的具體細節。這確實需要隨著時間的推移進行研究，尤其是我們經歷了過去四個、六個季度的 COVID 和一直在發生的波動，我會非常小心地在衡量事物時過於精確在這種類型的時間段內。因此，我認為憑藉我們的競爭優勢，以及我們正在進行的投資，我們非常有信心在我們進行這些投資的市場上取得進展。我們真的相信我們在這段時間內取得了進展。謝謝你，約翰。

We'll hear next from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

接下來我們將聽到美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya 的發言。

I'm curious, how would you characterize the demand environment? Would you call it early, mid or late cycle? Or if I ask the question differently, do you think any of your end market is overheated right now in any way?

我很好奇，您如何描述需求環境？你會稱它為早期、中期或晚期週期嗎？或者，如果我提出不同的問題，您認為您的終端市場現在是否以任何方式過熱？

Yes. Vivek, I would say that the demand environment is similar to what we saw 90 days ago. So we had seen strength in orders, and our backlog continued to be strong, those types of things. The upside that we saw, of course, this quarter was very broad-based. And so that was the difference here in the fourth quarter. I'd say that we did see the matched set behavior last quarter. And again, we did see it again this quarter. And that's where customers are really looking to complete that instead of expediting across the board. And you could describe that behavior as being symptomatic of growing customer inventory that's out of mix. But as we've talked about previously, we don't have direct visibility into customer inventory, so that's not something that we could measure over time. Do you have a follow-on, Vivek?

是的。 Vivek，我會說需求環境類似於我們 90 天前看到的情況。因此，我們看到了訂單的強勁勢頭，我們的積壓訂單繼續保持強勁，這些類型的事情。當然，本季度我們看到的上行空間非常廣泛。這就是第四季度的不同之處。我想說我們確實在上個季度看到了匹配的集合行為。再一次，我們確實在本季度再次看到了它。這就是客戶真正希望完成的工作，而不是全面加速。您可以將這種行為描述為不斷增長的客戶庫存增加的症狀。但正如我們之前談到的，我們無法直接了解客戶庫存，因此我們無法隨著時間的推移來衡量。你有後續嗎，維維克？

Yes. So the other question is now on the supply side. There is investor concern that the semiconductor industry is overinvesting at a time when demand might be peaking. And I know you guys have made it clear that you invest for the longer term. But how are you thinking about your current acceleration on the investment side? When does that translate into actual useful capacity? And what are you doing to make sure that you don't over invest, right, at least in the next couple of quarters?

是的。所以另一個問題現在在供應方面。投資者擔心，在需求可能達到頂峰之際，半導體行業過度投資。而且我知道你們已經明確表示要進行長期投資。但是您如何看待您目前在投資方面的加速？什麼時候才能轉化為實際的有用容量？你正在做些什麼來確保你不會過度投資，對吧，至少在接下來的幾個季度？

Yes. Vivek, I'll go ahead and take that. As you alluded to at the beginning of the question, we think of the long term when we make this decision. So this is not about 2021, '22 or even '23. This is over the long term. And the secular trends in our industry, we're confident of where those are pointing, and specifically, in our products, analog and embedded, and the end markets that -- where we put a strategic priority, industrial automotive.

是的。 Vivek，我會繼續接受的。正如您在問題開頭提到的那樣，我們在做出此決定時會考慮長期。所以這與 2021 年、22 年甚至 23 年無關。這是長期的。對於我們行業的長期趨勢，我們對它們所指向的方向充滿信心，特別是在我們的模擬和嵌入式產品，以及我們將工業汽車作為戰略重點的終端市場。

So on the manufacturing investments that you alluded to, we're very excited about those. As I mentioned during the prepared remarks, they're going to strengthen our competitive advantage on manufacturing and technology. First, we're going to have significant 300-millimeter capacity coming online with RFAB2 and Lehi. That's going to happen actually this year and then going to next year with Lehi.

因此，關於您提到的製造業投資，我們對此感到非常興奮。正如我在準備好的評論中提到的，它們將加強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢。首先，我們將通過 RFAB2 和 Lehi 擁有可觀的 300 毫米容量。這實際上會在今年發生，然後會在明年與李海一起發生。

Second, with the announcement of the Sherman complex, we're going to have a roadmap that's going to support us out to 2035. And then finally, customers are very excited about our investments specifically in 45- to 130-nanometer process technologies that are optimized for Analog and Embedded and will support the customers' growth for decades ahead.

其次，隨著謝爾曼複合體的宣布，我們將製定一個支持我們到 2035 年的路線圖。最後，客戶對我們在 45 至 130 納米工藝技術方面的投資感到非常興奮針對模擬和嵌入式進行了優化，並將支持客戶未來數十年的增長。

We'll hear next from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將聽到 Toshiya Hari 與高盛的合作。

Your days of inventory came in at 116. And as you pointed out, you're still below where you'd like to be. But to the extent you have visibility into customer inventory, how would you characterize where they are today? And where do you see them going, going forward?

您的庫存天數為 116。正如您所指出的，您仍然低於您想要的位置。但是，就您對客戶庫存的了解程度而言，您將如何描述他們今天的位置？你認為他們會往哪裡走？

Well, so I'll start, and I'll comment on our own inventories, and Dave, if you want to add to that. But yes, you pointed out is our inventory days are 116. That is higher by about four days from last quarter, but still well below where we want to be. And our goal is to be significantly higher than that. Our guidance on that is 130 to 190 days. Just know that that's a very tactical metric because it's just based on one quarter. The bottom line is that we want to have more inventory. And in that measure, I would not be uncomfortable at the very high end or even above the high end of that measure at some point, 190 days of inventory.

好吧，所以我要開始了，我會評論我們自己的庫存，如果你想補充的話，我會評論戴夫。但是，是的，您指出我們的庫存天數是 116。這比上一季度高出約四天，但仍遠低於我們想要的水平。我們的目標是遠高於此。我們對此的指導是 130 到 190 天。只要知道這是一個非常戰術性的指標，因為它僅基於四分之一。底線是我們希望擁有更多庫存。在那個衡量標準中，我不會對非常高端甚至超過該衡量標準的高端在某個時候感到不舒服，即 190 天的庫存。

Yes. And I think just I'll follow up with -- as I commented before, we just don't have direct visibility into customer inventory, so it's not something that we can measure directly. You have a follow-on, Toshi?

是的。而且我想我會跟進 - 正如我之前評論的那樣，我們只是無法直接了解客戶庫存，因此我們無法直接衡量。你有後續嗎，Toshi？

Yes, I do. I wanted to ask about OpEx, a fairly mundane item, but you've done an incredible job in leveraging OpEx over the past couple of years, during which revenue has gone up significantly, particularly considering kind of the inflationary environment and the competition for talent. What's driving the flattish OpEx, and how should we think about potential upside to OpEx going forward, given the current backdrop?

是的，我願意。我想問一下 OpEx，這是一個相當普通的項目，但在過去幾年中，您在利用 OpEx 方面做得非常出色，在此期間收入顯著增長，特別是考慮到通脹環境和人才競爭.是什麼推動了運營支出持平，在當前背景下，我們應該如何考慮未來運營支出的潛在上行空間？

Yes. So I'll take that. First, yes, we've been running OpEx at about $3.2 billion per year, a little lower, a little higher than that. But for the last five years, eventually, they've rounded -- that number has rounded to that.

是的。所以我會接受的。首先，是的，我們每年的運營支出約為 32 億美元，略低，略高。但是在過去的五年裡，最終，他們已經四捨五入了——這個數字已經四捨五入了。

OpEx, most of OpEx, is an investment. That's how we think about it. Obviously, R&D continues to strengthen our -- the broadest portfolio in the industry that we have, both analog and embedded. But even inside of SG&A, there are several key pieces there that are key investments. TI.com is one that comes to mind, and we'll talk more about TI.com specifically at the capital management call next week.

OpEx，大部分的 OpEx，是一種投資。這就是我們的想法。顯然，研發繼續加強我們——我們擁有的業內最廣泛的產品組合，包括模擬和嵌入式。但即使在 SG&A 內部，也有幾個關鍵部分是關鍵投資。 TI.com 是一個浮現在腦海中的網站，我們將在下週的資本管理電話會議上專門討論 TI.com。

So OpEx fuels our future growth. We don't really think about it from a percent of revenue standpoint. But to help you with that, we have guided that over the long term should trend between 20% and 25%. Of course, we're -- right now, we're at about 18% or so. So that 3.2, I wouldn't expect it to change significantly in the short term. But over time, over many years, it should -- 20% to 25% is probably the right way to look at it.

因此，運營支出推動了我們未來的增長。我們並沒有真正從收入百分比的角度考慮它。但為了幫助您解決這個問題，我們已經指導長期趨勢應該在 20% 到 25% 之間。當然，我們 - 現在，我們大約是 18% 左右。所以 3.2，我不認為它會在短期內發生顯著變化。但隨著時間的推移，多年來，它應該—— 20% 到 25% 可能是看待它的正確方式。

We'll hear next from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將聽到來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾的消息。

Congrats on the strong result and guide. I wanted to ask about the gross margin side of things. I know one quarter doesn't make a trend, but the incremental gross margin was way bigger in the fourth quarter than expected, and it seems like the first quarter has also guided for the gross margin to perhaps rise again sequentially. So whether it's a short term or kind of a longer-term description or answer, what are the big drivers of the upside that you're seeing in the near term? And how much of that do we expect to continue going into 2022 and beyond?

恭喜您取得了出色的成績和指導。我想問一下毛利率方面的事情。我知道一個季度沒有形成趨勢，但第四季度的增量毛利率比預期的要大得多，而且似乎第一季度也引導了毛利率可能再次連續上升。因此，無論是短期還是長期描述或答案，您在短期內看到的上漲的主要驅動因素是什麼？我們預計其中有多少會持續到 2022 年及以後？

Yes. So a couple of angles on that question on gross margin. First, as you know, you've followed us for a long time, we do not manage to gross margin. We manage to the growth of free cash flow per share. We think that's the key driver of value for the long-term owners of the company. And you can do that with higher gross margins. You can do that with lower gross margins. So that's our focus. But specifically on gross margins, our guidance has been and continues to be, think about it on a fall-through basis, over the long term, 70%, 75%. We have been doing pretty well on that front. The key driver, of course, is revenue growth. But then beyond that 300-millimeter capacity, that continues to be a great tailwind as we have more and more of our capacity on 300-millimeter, we had -- has a structural cost advantage and we'll be continuing to add to that with RFAB2, Lehi and the Sherman complex.

是的。因此，關於毛利率的問題有幾個角度。首先，如您所知，您已經關注我們很長時間了，我們無法達到毛利率。我們設法實現每股自由現金流的增長。我們認為這是公司長期所有者價值的關鍵驅動因素。你可以用更高的毛利率做到這一點。你可以用較低的毛利率做到這一點。所以這是我們的重點。但特別是在毛利率方面，我們的指導一直是並且繼續是，從長期來看，70%、75% 是在下降的基礎上考慮的。我們在這方面做得很好。當然，關鍵驅動因素是收入增長。但是，除了 300 毫米的產能之外，這仍然是一個巨大的順風，因為我們在 300 毫米上擁有越來越多的產能，我們擁有 - 具有結構性成本優勢，我們將繼續增加這一優勢RFAB2、Lehi 和謝爾曼複合體。

The last comment I'll make is -- and we'll give you more details on that next week on capital management, but CapEx has been going up and will continue to go up over a number of years with those investments that I mentioned. Those are long-term investments. Those are going to set us up great for the next 15-plus years. So I'm very happy about this. I'm pleased with that. We're confident about those. But that does flow through the P&L as higher depreciation. So I expect CapEx to go up, and depreciation will follow. And that will have an impact on gross margins. But frankly, at the end of the day, that's accounting. The investment is happening now. It will happen over the next few years with that additional CapEx, and that will just put us in a great position to grow the top line and have really great fall-throughs over a long time to come.

我要發表的最後一條評論是——我們將在下週為您提供更多關於資本管理的詳細信息，但資本支出一直在上升，並且隨著我提到的這些投資在數年內繼續上升。這些都是長期投資。這些將使我們在未來 15 年多的時間裡變得更好。所以我對此感到非常高興。我對此很滿意。我們對這些充滿信心。但這確實會隨著更高的折舊流經損益表。所以我預計資本支出會上升，貶值也會隨之而來。這將對毛利率產生影響。但坦率地說，歸根結底，這就是會計。投資正在發生。隨著額外的資本支出，這將在未來幾年發生，這將使我們處於一個很好的位置，可以增加收入，並在未來很長一段時間內經歷非常大的跌幅。

Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你有後續嗎？

Yes. I just wanted to pivot back to the revenue side. And whether it's industrial or automotive, your two focus markets, they look like they both grew kind of 30%, 35% year over year in 2021 as a whole. That's significantly faster than the secular growth rate that you guys have delivered, but not terribly different than the peer group for the year. So I just wondered how do you guys explain that level of growth? You don't seem to see any inventory anywhere. The end markets don't seem to be growing that fast. But whether it's for TI specifically or the group as a whole, I wonder -- the sector as a whole -- I wonder how you would explain that growth and the sustainability of it.

是的。我只是想回到收入方面。無論是工業還是汽車，這兩個重點市場，它們看起來都在 2021 年整體同比增長了 30% 和 35%。這比你們提供的長期增長率要快得多，但與今年的同齡人並沒有太大的不同。所以我只是想知道你們如何解釋這種增長水平？您似乎在任何地方都看不到任何庫存。終端市場的增長似乎沒有那麼快。但無論是專門針對 TI 還是針對整個集團，我想知道 - 整個行業 - 我想知道您將如何解釋這種增長及其可持續性。

Yes. So I think that it's clear, as we look at those markets over time, we believe that there's going to be content growth. So let me just talk about the long-term prospects of both of those markets. So it's very easily seen in the automotive market that there's content growth. We can see the cars today just have more semi content in them per vehicle than what we drove five years ago, 10 years ago. And it's very clear that that's going to continue.

是的。所以我認為很明顯，隨著時間的推移，當我們審視這些市場時，我們相信內容將會增長。所以讓我談談這兩個市場的長期前景。因此，在汽車市場很容易看到內容增長。我們可以看到，今天的汽車每輛車的半含量比我們五年前、10 年前開的要多。很明顯，這將繼續下去。

That same phenomenon -- it's just a lot harder to see -- is going on in the industrial market, and that's what we love about it. It's not one thing. We've got 13 sectors that make up that market. We have hundreds of end equipments that we're working on and tens of thousands of customers that we're working for. And our product portfolio is just positioned perfectly for that. So it's really a strategic focus that's on it.

同樣的現象 - 只是更難看到 - 正在工業市場上發生，這就是我們喜歡它的地方。這不是一回事。我們有 13 個行業組成了這個市場。我們有數百個正在開發的終端設備和數以萬計的客戶。我們的產品組合正是為此而完美定位。因此，這確實是一個戰略重點。

Now is there going to be noise around growth rates in any one given year? And John pointed out with SIA data, the stuff bouncing around, that's going to happen, but we're going to put in place growth and capacity to support that growth for the long term, and it's because we've got the confidence that those markets are going to grow and those secular trends are going to continue. So thank you, Ross.

現在，任何一年的增長率都會有噪音嗎？ John 指出，隨著 SIA 數據的不斷變化，這種情況將會發生，但我們將實現增長和能力以長期支持這種增長，這是因為我們有信心，那些市場將增長，這些長期趨勢將繼續下去。所以謝謝你，羅斯。

And now we'll move on to our next question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

現在我們將繼續討論來自 Tore Svanberg 和 Stifel 的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid execution here. First question is on customer behavior, perhaps on the ordering front. So I think there's a lot of investors that are worried that inflation is kind of stalling the economies globally. Are you not seeing any change at all in your customers' behavior from higher prices? Because obviously, there is inflation in the semiconductor industry, too. So have you not seen any change in order behavior at all sequentially?

祝賀這裡的紮實執行。第一個問題是關於客戶行為，也許是在訂購方面。所以我認為有很多投資者擔心通脹會阻礙全球經濟。您是否沒有看到客戶的行為因價格上漲而發生任何變化？因為很明顯，半導體行業也存在通貨膨脹。那麼你有沒有看到順序行為的任何變化？

Well, yes, Tore, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add anything. I'd say that the environment that, as we mentioned before, is very similar to 90 days ago. The customer behavior that we talked about with the matched set continued. So really not -- in a 90-day period, has there been a change? Nothing that we could measure on that front. So Rafael, anything to add?

好吧，是的，Tore，我先開始，還有 Rafael，如果你想添加任何內容。我想說的是，正如我們之前提到的，與 90 天前的環境非常相似。我們用匹配集討論的客戶行為仍在繼續。所以真的沒有——在 90 天的時間裡，有變化嗎？在這方面我們無法衡量。那麼拉斐爾，有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

No. Yes. So you have a follow-on?

不，是的。那你有後續嗎？

Yes. When we think about your capacity expansion, you talked a lot about the front end. But Rafael, you mentioned you're also doing some assembly and test expansions. Could you elaborate a little bit on that, especially how it would impact the CapEx numbers going forward?

是的。當我們考慮您的容量擴展時，您談到了很多關於前端的事情。但是Rafael，你提到你也在做一些組裝和測試擴展。您能否詳細說明一下，特別是它將如何影響未來的資本支出數字？

Yes. No, thanks for that question. We -- as you alluded to, a lot of the conversations on CapEx do tend to be on the fab side. That's because that's where a disproportionate amount of the money goes to, which is very capital intensive. And it's also because the lead times to build those are much longer, the type of structure that you have to build, et cetera. But we're also spending a lot of time internally on the back end and what we need to do on that front. We're going to give you more details on that next week. But essentially, we do have plans going on at various countries where we already have operations to continue to expand capacity to match that front-end capacity and always be ahead of demand.

是的。不，謝謝這個問題。我們——正如你所提到的，很多關於資本支出的對話確實傾向於在晶圓廠方面。那是因為那是不成比例的資金流向的地方，這是非常資本密集的。這也是因為建造這些的交貨時間要長得多，你必須建造的結構類型等等。但我們也在內部花費了大量時間在後端以及我們需要在這方面做些什麼。我們將在下週為您提供更多詳細信息。但從本質上講，我們確實有計劃在我們已經開展業務的各個國家/地區進行，以繼續擴大產能以匹配前端產能並始終領先於需求。

We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們將向摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 提出下一個問題。

Congrats on the solid results and execution. As you guys mentioned, relative to your view 90 days ago, it looks like things didn't change all that much from a fundamental perspective, right, selective hot spots, lead time stable, broad-based demand. So how much of the upside was actually driven by an increase in supply availability, both from your internal manufacturing and outsource partners? Because it looks like you guys were capacity constrained starting from about the middle of last year. So just wondering if you're able to bring on some additional supply in Q4, which drove some of the upside.

祝賀可靠的結果和執行。正如你們所提到的，相對於你們 90 天前的觀點，從基本面來看，情況似乎並沒有太大變化，對，選擇性熱點，交貨時間穩定，需求基礎廣泛。那麼，有多少上漲實際上是由供應可用性的增加推動的，無論是來自您的內部製造和外包合作夥伴嗎？因為看起來你們從去年年中開始就受到產能限制。所以只是想知道你是否能夠在第四季度帶來一些額外的供應，這推動了一些上行空間。

Yes. So I'll start, and Dave, if you want to chime in. But I would tell you, first, as Dave mentioned during the call, prepared remarks and during a couple of questions, the strength was broad-based across geographies and end markets, et cetera.

是的。所以我會開始，戴夫，如果你想插話。但我要告訴你，首先，正如戴夫在電話會議中提到的那樣，準備發言和幾個問題，力量是廣泛的跨地域和結束市場等。

On your specific comment on capacity, as we have said probably for the last four quarters or so, maybe longer, we have been and will continue to bring capacity incrementally. Incrementally, meaning relatively small steps. But nevertheless, those make a difference, especially on a cumulative basis, right? So we have been doing that for some time, and that's obviously helping. I mean you could see not only our revenue has improved during this cycle, but we went from draining inventory, to now the last two quarters, we've actually increased inventory, albeit at a relatively low level, but still much better than draining inventory. So that gives you an appreciation for what that incremental -- those incremental additions to capacity have done. We expect to continue to increase incrementally, again, relatively small steps for another two quarters, and then RFAB2 comes online sometime in the third quarter of this year, 2022, and that will give us more legroom on those tailwinds. And then about six months later, Q1 '23, we'll have Lehi -- LFAB -- come online once it's qualified, and that will give us also more legroom on that front.

關於您對產能的具體評論，正如我們可能在過去四個季度左右甚至更長時間內所說的那樣，我們已經並將繼續逐步增加產能。增量，意味著相對較小的步驟。但是，儘管如此，這些都會有所作為，尤其是在累積的基礎上，對嗎？所以我們已經這樣做了一段時間，這顯然是有幫助的。我的意思是，您不僅可以看到我們的收入在這個週期中有所改善，而且我們從消耗庫存到現在的最後兩個季度，我們實際上增加了庫存，儘管處於相對較低的水平，但仍然比消耗庫存好得多.這樣一來，您就可以欣賞增量的作用——那些增量增加的容量所做的事情。我們預計將在另外兩個季度繼續以相對較小的步幅繼續增加，然後 RFAB2 將在今年第三季度的某個時間，即 2022 年上線，這將為我們提供更多的順風空間。然後大約六個月後，即 23 年第一季度，我們將讓 Lehi - LFAB - 一旦符合條件就上線，這也將為我們在這方面提供更多的腿部空間。

Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

你有後續嗎，哈蘭？

Yes. So when the team announced the purchase of the Lehi 300-millimeter fab, you noted that Lehi would start off with 65- and 45-nanometer analog and embedded processing products, which is somewhat of a strategic change, right, because you guys have always been focused on 300-millimeter analog products. So is TI bringing embedded in-house because you have some sort of competitive differentiators on the manufacturing side for your next-generation embedded portfolio? Or is it just a focus on lower cost versus outsourcing and moving the manufacturing mix towards more in-sourced over time?

是的。因此，當團隊宣布購買 Lehi 300 毫米晶圓廠時，您指出 Lehi 將從 65 和 45 納米模擬和嵌入式處理產品開始，這有點戰略性的變化，對吧，因為你們一直一直專注於 300 毫米模擬產品。那麼，TI 是否會因為您在下一代嵌入式產品組合的製造方面具有某種競爭優勢而引入內部嵌入式？或者它只是專注於降低成本而不是外包，並隨著時間的推移將製造組合轉向更多內購？

Yes, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add, please do. If you look, we do manufacture embedded today in DMOS6. So part of our manufacturing footprint today includes embedded. And so with the Lehi factory, we will be able to build additional product there. And I would say, over time, foundry will continue to be a portion of our footprint. But as our revenue grows as a percentage of revenue, could that move some? It could. But we will continue to build products both internally and externally. And I'll just say that as we invest in 300-millimeter, both for analog and embedded, that brings the same cost advantages to us. It allows better control of our supply chain. And certainly, in periods like this, it shows why that that's an important advantage for us. So okay. Thank you, Harlan. And I think we've got time for one more caller.

是的，我將開始，Rafael，如果您想添加，請添加。如果你看的話，我們今天確實在 DMOS6 中製造嵌入式。因此，我們今天的部分製造足跡包括嵌入式。因此，有了 Lehi 工廠，我們將能夠在那裡製造更多產品。我想說，隨著時間的推移，代工將繼續成為我們足蹟的一部分。但隨著我們的收入佔收入的百分比增長，這會有所改變嗎？它可能。但我們將繼續在內部和外部構建產品。我只想說，當我們投資 300 毫米時，無論是用於模擬還是嵌入式，這都會為我們帶來相同的成本優勢。它可以更好地控制我們的供應鏈。當然，在這樣的時期，它說明了為什麼這對我們來說是一個重要的優勢。沒關係。謝謝你，哈蘭。而且我認為我們還有時間再接聽一位來電者。

We'll take our next question from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們將回答 Ambrish Srivastava 與 BMO 的下一個問題。

Dave and Rafael, I had a question on end markets. And specifically in auto, there is a lot of concern, it has been for more than a couple of quarters, about semi components going into the industry and the auto units, the big gap. And if I look at your automotive, the year-over-year change, at least a rapid -- I think it was up 2x a couple of quarters ago. That seems to be decelerating. So can you just help us kind of -- seems to be some parts of forward, but the concern is that the supply chain collectively is holding up on a lot of inventory. So just with -- I'd love to get your perspective. And Dave, I think last quarter, you had given us a pre-pandemic level, and you had kind of contrasted what you shipped last quarter versus that number.

戴夫和拉斐爾，我有一個關於終端市場的問題。特別是在汽車領域，有很多擔憂，已經持續了兩個多季度，關於半導體組件進入行業和汽車部門，差距很大。如果我看看你的汽車，每年的變化，至少是快速的——我認為它在幾個季度前增長了 2 倍。這似乎正在減速。所以你能不能幫助我們——似乎是前進的一部分，但令人擔憂的是，供應鏈共同持有大量庫存。所以只是——我很想听聽你的看法。戴夫，我認為上個季度，您給了我們一個大流行前的水平，並且您將上個季度的出貨量與該數字進行了對比。

Yes. So Ambrish, maybe I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add to it. And first, I'll just make a comment that our team has done a good job supporting customers really across all of our end markets. When we look at that pre-pandemic level of fourth quarter of '19 and just picking that to fourth quarter '21, revenue overall is up 40%. And we grew shipments in all of our end markets. So I think that that's important to point out. So we believe inside of that, we've made strategic progress in industrial and in automotive that will pay dividends for us for years ahead. But our teams really have done a great job supporting customers across that board.

是的。所以 Ambrish，也許我會開始，如果你想補充的話，還有 Rafael。首先，我要評論一下，我們的團隊在支持我們所有終端市場的客戶方面做得很好。當我們查看 19 年第四季度的大流行前水平並選擇到 21 年第四季度時，整體收入增長了 40%。我們在所有終端市場都增加了出貨量。所以我認為指出這一點很重要。因此，我們相信，我們在工業和汽車領域取得了戰略性進展，這將在未來幾年為我們帶來紅利。但我們的團隊在支持客戶方面確實做得很好。

And some of those year-on-year transitions, Ambrish, as you know, some of those really big numbers -- I think one quarter, we had close to 100%, maybe even above that -- that was more of a function of how low shipments have gotten the quarter before. So that's where I talk about when things get really noisy, you really have to begin to look at it over these longer periods of time. But I think that that's a really good number to look at for our overall shipments. So do you have a follow-up to that, Ambrish?

還有一些同比的轉變，Ambrish，如你所知，其中一些非常大的數字——我認為有一個季度，我們接近 100%，甚至可能更高——這更多是前一個季度的出貨量有多低。所以這就是我所說的當事情變得非常嘈雜時，你真的必須開始在這些更長的時間段內看待它。但我認為對於我們的整體出貨量來說，這是一個非常好的數字。那麼你有後續跟進嗎，Ambrish？

I had a separate follow-up, Dave. I've never seen a -- such a broad mention of a TI chip being short as PMIC. And it started with PCs. Now we hear from pretty much every end market. Everybody is pointing the TI. The question I get from investors, and I have it myself as well, so I don't want to just say from investors, just how did TI -- you guys are -- at least I hold you at the pedestal in terms of ops, planning, supply chain management. How did you guys get to that point where one part -- and I know it's a small piece of your overall business. But more importantly, how do you convince us that this does not translate into potential share losses when people start to design you out potentially because this time, several quarters, you couldn't supply the part?

我有一個單獨的後續行動，戴夫。我從未見過如此廣泛地提到 TI 芯片短如 PMIC。它始於個人電腦。現在我們幾乎聽到了每個終端市場的消息。每個人都指向 TI。我從投資者那裡得到的問題，我自己也有，所以我不想只從投資者那裡說，TI 是怎麼做的——你們是——至少我在運營方面把你放在了基座上、規劃、供應鏈管理。你們是如何做到這一點的——我知道這是你們整體業務的一小部分。但更重要的是，當人們開始設計你時，你如何說服我們這不會轉化為潛在的份額損失，因為這一次，幾個季度，你無法提供零件？

Yes. Fair question, Ambrish. And I'd point to maybe a couple of things. First, I'd point that we've got the broadest portfolio in the industry. When we engage with customers, it's not unusual for us to have a dozen, two dozen, sometimes three, four dozen different components shipped or on any particular design in any particular system. So it only takes one of those products to -- for our teams to have to work closely with that customer on. And as I talked about before, our teams have really done a great job supporting customers across the board, across those products. And that's what we'll continue to focus on.

是的。公平的問題，Ambrish。我會指出一些事情。首先，我要指出的是，我們擁有業內最廣泛的產品組合。當我們與客戶打交道時，我們通常會運送一打、兩打、有時是三、四打不同的組件，或者在任何特定係統中的任何特定設計上。因此，我們的團隊只需要其中一種產品就必須與該客戶密切合作。正如我之前談到的，我們的團隊在支持這些產品的全面客戶方面做得非常出色。這就是我們將繼續關注的內容。

I think as we look to this year, we've got capacity coming online later this year with RFAB2 and those investments that Rafael talked about. We're putting in capacity. Every quarter this year, we've put in capacity, every quarter last year, incrementally. So you see that showing up in our results. And then we've got -- follow that up with the Lehi fab in early 2023. So I think we're in a really good position to continue to support our customers overall. So we'll continue to work really hard at that and deliver the results that follow with that.

我認為，展望今年，我們將在今年晚些時候通過 RFAB2 和 Rafael 談到的那些投資實現容量上線。我們正在增加容量。今年每個季度，我們都在增加產能，去年每個季度都在增加。所以你會在我們的結果中看到這一點。然後我們得到了——在 2023 年初與 Lehi 工廠跟進。所以我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，可以繼續為我們的客戶提供整體支持。因此，我們將繼續在這方面努力工作，並提供隨之而來的結果。

So with that, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming capital management call. And it is on February 3 at 10 a.m. Central Time. And a replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

因此，我想提醒大家我們即將召開的資本管理電話會議。現在是中部時間 2 月 3 日上午 10 點。我們的網站很快就會重播這次電話會議。晚上好。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝你。今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝大家的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。