德州儀器 (TXN) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Texas Instruments Fourth Quarter '21 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Dave Pahl. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加德州儀器 21 年第四季財報發布電話會議。今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給戴夫·帕爾先生。先生，請繼續。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2021 earnings conference call. Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季和 2021 年收益電話會議。 TI 財務長 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir. This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website. A replay will be available through the web.

對於錯過此次發布的人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。本次通話正在網路直播，您可以透過我們的網站存取。重播將透過網路提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations. We encourage you to review the notice regarding forward-looking statements contained in the earnings release published today as well as TI's most recent SEC filings for a more complete description.

本次電話會議將包括前瞻性陳述，其中涉及風險和不確定性，可能導致 TI 的績效與管理層目前的預期有重大差異。我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益報告中包含的前瞻性聲明的通知以及 TI 最新的 SEC 文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars. We plan to hold a call for our capital management update on February 3 at 10 a.m. Central time. Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insight into our business and our approach to capital allocation.

首先，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的資訊。我們計劃於 2 月 3 日上午 10 點（中部時間）召開資本管理更新電話會議。與我們過去所做的類似，拉斐爾和我將總結我們的進展，並對我們的業務和資本配置方法提供一些見解。

For today's call, let me summarize what Rafael and I will be reviewing. I'll start with fourth quarter revenue results, including some details of what we're seeing with respect to our customers and markets. I'll then provide the annual summary of revenue breakout by end markets. And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, some insights into one-time items and our guidance for first quarter 2022.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我總結一下拉斐爾和我將要審查的內容。我將從第四季度的收入結果開始，包括我們看到的有關客戶和市場的一些細節。然後，我將提供按終端市場劃分的年度收入突破摘要。最後，拉斐爾將介紹財務業績、對一次性專案的一些見解以及我們對 2022 年第一季的指導。

Starting with fourth quarter results and the market environment: The company's revenue grew 19% year over year, driven by strong demand in the industrial and automotive markets. Analog revenue grew 20% year over year, and Embedded Processing grew 6%. Our Other segment grew 35% from the year-ago quarter.

從第四季業績和市場環境來看：受工業和汽車市場強勁需求的推動，公司營收年增19%。模擬收入年增 20%，嵌入式處理收入成長 6%。我們的其他部門比去年同期成長了 35%。

Let me now comment on the current environment to provide some context of what we're seeing with our customers and markets. Overall, the quarter came in stronger than we expected. The strength was across most product families, end markets and geographies.

現在，讓我對當前環境進行評論，以提供一些我們在客戶和市場中看到的背景資訊。整體而言，本季的表現強於我們的預期。大多數產品系列、終端市場和地區都表現出強勁實力。

The market environment is similar to what we reported 90 days ago. Lead times for the majority of our products remain stable, but hot spots continue to exist. However, customers continue to be selective in their expedite requests, increasingly focusing on products that complete a matched set rather than expediting products across the board. This behavior is not specific to any product family, end market or geography.

市場環境與我們90天前報道的類似。我們大多數產品的交貨時間保持穩定，但熱點仍然存在。然而，客戶在加急請求方面仍然很挑剔，越來越注重完成配套的產品，而不是全面加急產品。這種行為並非特定於任何產品系列、終端市場或地區。

Discussions with customers confirm a high level of interest in our commitment to expanding our internal manufacturing capacity roadmap, including 300-millimeter wafer fabs RFAB2 and LFAB, our recently announced plans for a multi-fab site in Sherman, Texas, and the associated assembly test expansions. These investments to strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage will provide lower cost and greater control of our supply chain. And while there is a growing recognition that the near-term supply/demand imbalance will end at some point, the secular growth of semiconductor content per system will continue to increase, and this requires a robust manufacturing capacity roadmap for 2025 and beyond.

與客戶的討論證實了客戶對我們擴大內部製造能力路線圖的承諾有很高的興趣，其中包括 300 毫米晶圓廠 RFAB2 和 LFAB、我們最近宣布的在德克薩斯州謝爾曼建立多晶圓廠的計劃以及相關的組裝測試擴展。這些投資將增強我們的製造和技術競爭優勢，從而降低成本並加強我們對供應鏈的控制。儘管人們越來越認識到短期供需失衡將在某個時候結束，但每個系統的半導體內容的長期增長仍將繼續增加，這需要為 2025 年及以後製定強大的製造能力路線圖。

Moving on, I'll now provide some insight into our fourth quarter revenue by end market from the year-ago quarter.

接下來，我將提供一些關於我們第四季按終端市場劃分的收入與去年同期相比的情況。

First, the industrial market was up about 40%, driven by broad-based strength across all sectors.

首先，受各行業普遍走強的推動，工業市場上漲約 40%。

The automotive market was up high-single digits with strength in most sectors.

汽車市場上漲了高個位數，大多數產業表現強勁。

Personal electronics was down upper-single digits, off a strong compare from a year ago.

個人電子產品銷售量較上年同期大幅下降，降幅達個位數。

Next, communications equipment was up about 25%.

其次，通訊設備上漲了約25%。

Finally, enterprise systems was up about 50% off a weak compare from a year ago, driven primarily by data center and enterprise computing.

最後，企業系統與去年同期相比上漲了約 50%，主要受資料中心和企業運算的推動。

And lastly, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2021. We break our end markets into six categories that are grouped by their life cycles and market characteristics. The six end markets are industrial; automotive; personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems; and other, which is primarily calculators.

最後，就像我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將描述我們 2021 年按終端市場劃分的收入。我們將終端市場分為六大類，依其生命週期和市場特徵分組。六個終端市場是工業；汽車；個人電子產品，包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等產品；通訊設備；企業系統；以及其他，主要是計算器。

As a percentage of revenue for the year, industrial was 41%; automotive 21%; personal electronics 24%; communications equipment 6%; enterprise systems 6%; and other was 2%.

佔全年收入的百分比，工業為41%；汽車21%；個人電子產品24%；通訊設備6%；企業系統 6%；其他為2%。

In 2021, industrial and automotive combined made up 62% of TI's revenue, up about five percentage points from 2020 and up from 42% from 2013. We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive. Our industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products smarter, safer, more connected and more efficient. These trends have resulted and will continue to result in growing chip content per application, which will drive faster growth compared to the other markets.

2021 年，工業和汽車市場合計佔 TI 收入的 62%，比 2020 年增長約 5 個百分點，比 2013 年的 42% 有所增長。我們在所有市場都看到了良好的機遇，但我們在策略上更加重視工業和汽車市場。我們的工業和汽車客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的最終產品更加智慧、更安全、更互聯、更有效率。這些趨勢已經導致並將繼續導致每個應用的晶片內容不斷增長，這將推動比其他市場更快的成長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook. Rafael?

拉斐爾現在將回顧獲利能力、資本管理和我們的展望。拉斐爾？

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $3.4 billion, or 69% of revenue. From a year ago, gross profit increased, primarily due to higher revenue. Gross profit margin increased 440 basis points.

本季毛利為 34 億美元，佔營收的 69%。與去年同期相比，毛利增加，主要原因是收入增加。毛利率增加440個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $793 million, up 1% from a year ago and about as expected. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 18% of revenue.

本季營運費用為 7.93 億美元，比去年同期成長 1%，與預期大致相符。過去 12 個月，營運費用佔收入的 18%。

For the year, we have invested $1.6 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation. We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term.

今年，我們在研發方面投資了 16 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。我們對向研發分配資金的嚴格流程感到滿意，我們相信這將使我們能夠長期繼續成長我們的營業收入。

Restructuring charges were $54 million in the quarter. This expense is driven by the Lehi wafer fab purchase we closed in October.

本季重組費用為 5,400 萬美元。這筆開支是由於我們十月完成的利哈伊晶圓廠的收購。

Operating profit was $2.5 billion, or 52% of revenue. Operating profit was up 38% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤為 25 億美元，佔營收的 52%。營業利潤較去年同期成長38%。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $2.1 billion, or $2.27 per share, which included a 4-cent cost that was not in our prior outlook, primarily due to the purchase I discussed earlier.

第四季淨收入為 21 億美元，即每股 2.27 美元，其中包括 4 美分的成本，這不在我們之前的預期之內，主要原因是我之前討論過的收購。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我評論一下我們的資本管理結果，首先從我們的現金產生開始。

Cash flow from operations was $2.4 billion in the quarter. Capital expenditures were $1.3 billion in the quarter, which included about $900 million for the LFAB purchase. Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $6.3 billion, up 15% from a year ago.

本季經營活動現金流為 24 億美元。本季資本支出為 13 億美元，其中包括用於收購 LFAB 的約 9 億美元。過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 63 億美元，比去年同期成長 15%。

In the quarter, we paid $1.1 billion in dividends. We have increased our dividend per share by 13%, marking our 18th year of dividend increases. For the year, our dividend represented 62% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

本季度，我們支付了 11 億美元的股息。我們的每股股息增加了 13%，這是我們第 18 年增加股息。今年，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 62%，凸顯了其可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $9.7 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter. Total debt outstanding was $7.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.6%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，第四季末現金和短期投資達 97 億美元。未償還債務總額為 78 億美元，加權平均票面利率為 2.6%。

Inventory days were 116, up four days sequentially, and remain below desired levels.

庫存天數為 116 天，比上一季增加 4 天，但仍低於預期水準。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在讓我們來看看今年的一些成果。

In 2021, cash flow from operations was $8.8 billion. Capital expenditures were $2.5 billion, or 13% of revenue. Free cash flow for 2021 was $6.3 billion, or 34% of revenue. Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model. As we have said, we believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value.

2021年，經營現金流為88億美元。資本支出為 25 億美元，佔收入的 13%。 2021 年自由現金流為 63 億美元，佔營收的 34%。我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。正如我們所說，我們相信每股自由現金流的成長是長期價值的主要驅動力。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $4.5 billion to $4.9 billion and earnings per share in the range of $2.01 to $2.29.

展望第一季度，我們預計 TI 營收將在 45 億美元至 49 億美元之間，每股收益將在 2.01 美元至 2.29 美元之間。

We expect our 2022 annual operating tax rate to continue to be about 14% and our effective tax rate about a percentage point lower than that. This is based on current tax law and would be about the same as we saw in 2021.

我們預計 2022 年年度營業稅率將繼續維持在 14% 左右，有效稅率將比該稅率低約一個百分點。這是基於現行稅法，與我們在 2021 年看到的大致相同。

Next, let me help you model our expectation for expenses for the LFAB purchase. As we have said, we expect to have about $75 million of cost per quarter until we start production, which is still expected in early 2023. These costs continue to be mostly reflected in the Restructuring line on the P&L, so it will be visible each quarter to you, and therefore part of our operating profit results. Once the facility begins production, these costs will move and be primarily reflected in cost of revenue.

接下來，讓我幫您模擬我們對 LFAB 購買費用的期望。正如我們所說，我們預計在開始生產之前每季的成本約為 7500 萬美元，預計生產仍將在 2023 年初進行。這些成本主要仍反映在損益表的重組項目中，因此您每季都可以看到，因此也是我們營業利潤結果的一部分。一旦工廠開始生產，這些成本就會轉移並主要反映在收入成本中。

As I close, let me explain why we're so excited about these capacity investments, as they strengthen our manufacturing and technology competitive advantage.

最後，讓我解釋一下為什麼我們對這些產能投資如此興奮，因為它們增強了我們的製造和技術競爭優勢。

First, we have significant 300-millimeter capacity coming online with RFAB2 and LFAB in 2022 and 2023. Second, with the announcement of the Sherman complex, we have a 300-millimeter roadmap to support growth from 2025 to 2035. Third, customers are excited that our capacity investments are in 45-nanometer to 130-nanometer process technologies that are optimized for analog and embedded and will support their growth in the decades ahead.

首先，隨著 RFAB2 和 LFAB 將於 2022 年和 2023 年上線，我們擁有顯著的 300 毫米產能。其次，隨著謝爾曼綜合設施的宣布，我們擁有支援 2025 年至 2035 年成長的 300 毫米路線圖。第三，客戶很高興我們的產能投資於 45 奈米至 130 奈米製程技術，這些技術針對模擬和嵌入式進行了最佳化，並將在未來幾十年支持他們的成長。

It is clear that owning and controlling our manufacturing and technology will give us both lower cost and greater control of our supply chain. It is with this confidence we look forward to sharing with you more details of our plans in our capital management call next week.

顯然，擁有並控制我們的製造和技術將使我們降低成本並更好地控制我們的供應鏈。懷著這種信心，我們期待在下週的資本管理電話會議上與您分享我們計劃的更多細節。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

說完這些，讓我把話題轉回給戴夫。

Thanks, Rafael. Operator, you can now open the lines up for questions. (Operator Instructions) Operator?

謝謝，拉斐爾。接線員，您現在可以開始回答問題了。 （操作員指令）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We will take our first question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

（操作員指示）我們將回答瑞士信貸的 John Pitzer 提出的第一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid results. Dave and Rafael, last quarter was the first quarter you talked about customers being a little bit more selective about their ordering patterns. And that was somewhat reflected in upside in September, which was a little bit muted. You characterized Q4 as being the same, but the upside was a little bit stronger. I'm wondering if you could help me just square that circle as to what drove the magnitude of upside in the December quarter above that of September.

祝賀您取得如此豐碩的成果。戴夫和拉斐爾，上個季度是你們第一次談到客戶在訂購模式上變得更加挑剔。這在一定程度上反映在 9 月的上漲勢頭中，但漲幅略微減弱。您認為第四季的情況是一樣的，但上行潛力更大一些。我想知道您是否能幫我解決這個問題，即是什麼原因導致 12 月季度的上漲幅度高於 9 月季度。

Yes, John, I'll take that. Yes, the upside that we saw in the fourth quarter was very, very broad-based. So as we described it, it was across our product families, across our end markets and geography. So it really wasn't one thing that was driving it, and it was very broad-based. So that was the difference that we saw between last quarter and this quarter. Do you have a follow-up?

是的，約翰，我接受。是的，我們在第四季看到的上行趨勢非常非常廣泛。正如我們所描述的，它涵蓋了我們的產品系列、終端市場和地理。所以，這其實不是由單一因素推動的，而是由多種因素共同作用的結果。這就是我們看到的上個季度和本季之間的差異。你有後續行動嗎？

Yes. Just as a follow-up, notwithstanding the impressive growth you put up in your Analog business in calendar year '21, if I comp that against the SIA, it's going to end up having been an unusual year for you guys because you would have undergrown the industry by a fairly wide margin, at least versus history. And I'm wondering if you can help me understand, is that a function of peers being a bit more aggressive on pricing menu? Is it something that we shouldn't take to the trend? Or how do you explain the difference there?

是的。作為後續問題，儘管你們的模擬業務在 21 日曆年取得了令人矚目的增長，但如果我將其與 SIA 進行比較，那麼這對你們來說將是不尋常的一年，因為你們的增長幅度遠低於行業平均水平，至少與歷史相比是這樣。我想知道您是否可以幫助我理解，這是同行在定價菜單上更積極的表現嗎？這是我們不該順應潮流的事嗎？或者你如何解釋其中的差異？

Yes. I think whenever we look at the SIA data, regardless of which direction that it's trending, you'll know that I'll always be consistent -- that I say never look at one quarter, sometimes even one year, on specifics. That really needs to be something that is looked at over time, especially we go through a period of the last four, six quarters through COVID and the choppiness that's been going on, I'd just be real careful to get too precise on measuring things in this type of time period. So I think with our competitive advantages, with the investments that we're making, we're very confident that we're making progress in the markets that we're making those investments. And we really believe that we've made progress over this time period. Thank you, John.

是的。我想，無論何時我們查看 SIA 數據，無論其趨勢如何，您都會知道我始終保持一致 - 我說永遠不要只看一個季度，有時甚至是一年的具體情況。這確實需要隨著時間的推移進行研究，特別是我們經歷了過去四到六個季度的 COVID 時期以及持續的波動，我會非常小心，不要在這種時間段內對事物進行過於精確的衡量。因此我認為，憑藉我們的競爭優勢和所做的投資，我們非常有信心在我們所投資的市場中取得進展。我們確實相信我們在這段時間內取得了進展。謝謝你，約翰。

We'll hear next from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

接下來我們來聽聽美國銀行證券公司的維韋克·阿里亞 (Vivek Arya) 的演講。

I'm curious, how would you characterize the demand environment? Would you call it early, mid or late cycle? Or if I ask the question differently, do you think any of your end market is overheated right now in any way?

我很好奇，您如何描述需求環境？您稱之為早期、中期還是晚期週期？或者如果我換一種問法，您是否認為目前您的任何終端市場都過熱了？

Yes. Vivek, I would say that the demand environment is similar to what we saw 90 days ago. So we had seen strength in orders, and our backlog continued to be strong, those types of things. The upside that we saw, of course, this quarter was very broad-based. And so that was the difference here in the fourth quarter. I'd say that we did see the matched set behavior last quarter. And again, we did see it again this quarter. And that's where customers are really looking to complete that instead of expediting across the board. And you could describe that behavior as being symptomatic of growing customer inventory that's out of mix. But as we've talked about previously, we don't have direct visibility into customer inventory, so that's not something that we could measure over time. Do you have a follow-on, Vivek?

是的。 Vivek，我想說需求環境與我們 90 天前看到的類似。因此，我們看到訂單強勁，而且我們的積壓訂單持續強勁，諸如此類的情況。當然，本季我們看到的上漲趨勢非常廣泛。這就是第四季的差異。我想說我們確實在上個季度看到了匹配集行為。本季我們確實再次看到了這種情況。這就是客戶真正希望完成的事情，而不是全面加快速度。您可以將這種行為描述為客戶庫存不斷增加且不均衡的表現。但正如我們之前所討論的，我們無法直接了解客戶庫存，因此我們無法隨時間推移進行衡量。維韋克，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. So the other question is now on the supply side. There is investor concern that the semiconductor industry is overinvesting at a time when demand might be peaking. And I know you guys have made it clear that you invest for the longer term. But how are you thinking about your current acceleration on the investment side? When does that translate into actual useful capacity? And what are you doing to make sure that you don't over invest, right, at least in the next couple of quarters?

是的。所以現在另一個問題是關於供應方面。投資人擔心，在需求可能達到高峰的時候，半導體產業投資過度。我知道你們已經明確表示，你們的投資是著眼於長期。但您如何看待目前投資方面的加速？什麼時候才能轉換為實際可用容量？您將採取什麼措施來確保至少在接下來的幾個季度內不會過度投資？

Yes. Vivek, I'll go ahead and take that. As you alluded to at the beginning of the question, we think of the long term when we make this decision. So this is not about 2021, '22 or even '23. This is over the long term. And the secular trends in our industry, we're confident of where those are pointing, and specifically, in our products, analog and embedded, and the end markets that -- where we put a strategic priority, industrial automotive.

是的。維韋克，我會繼續接受這個。正如您在問題開始時提到的，我們在做出這個決定時會考慮長遠情況。所以這與 2021 年、2022 年甚至 2023 年都無關。這是長期的。我們對產業的長期趨勢充滿信心，特別是在我們的產品、模擬和嵌入式產品以及終端市場中——我們將策略重點放在工業汽車上。

So on the manufacturing investments that you alluded to, we're very excited about those. As I mentioned during the prepared remarks, they're going to strengthen our competitive advantage on manufacturing and technology. First, we're going to have significant 300-millimeter capacity coming online with RFAB2 and Lehi. That's going to happen actually this year and then going to next year with Lehi.

因此，對於您提到的製造業投資，我們對此感到非常興奮。正如我在準備好的演講中所提到的，它們將增強我們在製造和技術方面的競爭優勢。首先，我們將透過 RFAB2 和 Lehi 實現大量 300 毫米產能上線。事實上，這件事將在今年發生，然後明年與利希一起發生。

Second, with the announcement of the Sherman complex, we're going to have a roadmap that's going to support us out to 2035. And then finally, customers are very excited about our investments specifically in 45- to 130-nanometer process technologies that are optimized for Analog and Embedded and will support the customers' growth for decades ahead.

其次，隨著謝爾曼綜合設施的宣布，我們將制定一份支持我們到2035年的路線圖。最後，客戶對我們的投資感到非常興奮，特別是在針對模擬和嵌入式優化的45至130奈米製程技術方面，並將支援客戶未來幾十年的成長。

We'll hear next from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們來聽聽高盛的 Toshiya Hari 的演講。

Your days of inventory came in at 116. And as you pointed out, you're still below where you'd like to be. But to the extent you have visibility into customer inventory, how would you characterize where they are today? And where do you see them going, going forward?

您的庫存天數為 116 天。正如您所指出的，您的庫存水準仍然低於您的預期。但是，就您對客戶庫存的了解程度而言，您如何描述它們當前的狀況？您認為他們未來的發展方向是什麼？

Well, so I'll start, and I'll comment on our own inventories, and Dave, if you want to add to that. But yes, you pointed out is our inventory days are 116. That is higher by about four days from last quarter, but still well below where we want to be. And our goal is to be significantly higher than that. Our guidance on that is 130 to 190 days. Just know that that's a very tactical metric because it's just based on one quarter. The bottom line is that we want to have more inventory. And in that measure, I would not be uncomfortable at the very high end or even above the high end of that measure at some point, 190 days of inventory.

好吧，那麼我先開始，然後對我們自己的庫存進行評論，戴夫，如果你想補充的話。但是的，您指出我們的庫存天數是 116 天。這比上一季高出約四天，但仍然遠低於我們想要的水平。我們的目標是遠高於這個水準。我們的指導時間是 130 到 190 天。只需知道這是一個非常戰術性的指標，因為它僅基於一個季度。最重要的是我們希望擁有更多的庫存。按照這個衡量標準，在某個時間點，我不會對非常高端或甚至高於這個衡量標準的高端感到不舒服，即 190 天的庫存。

Yes. And I think just I'll follow up with -- as I commented before, we just don't have direct visibility into customer inventory, so it's not something that we can measure directly. You have a follow-on, Toshi?

是的。我想我會跟進——正如我之前評論的那樣，我們無法直接了解客戶庫存，所以這不是我們可以直接衡量的東西。你還有後續問題嗎，Toshi？

Yes, I do. I wanted to ask about OpEx, a fairly mundane item, but you've done an incredible job in leveraging OpEx over the past couple of years, during which revenue has gone up significantly, particularly considering kind of the inflationary environment and the competition for talent. What's driving the flattish OpEx, and how should we think about potential upside to OpEx going forward, given the current backdrop?

是的，我願意。我想問一下營運支出 (OpEx)，這是一個相當平凡的項目，但在過去幾年中，您在利用營運支出方面做得非常出色，在此期間收入大幅增長，特別是考慮到通膨環境和人才競爭。是什麼導致了營運支出持平？在當前背景下，我們應該如何看待未來營運支出的潛在上升空間？

Yes. So I'll take that. First, yes, we've been running OpEx at about $3.2 billion per year, a little lower, a little higher than that. But for the last five years, eventually, they've rounded -- that number has rounded to that.

是的。所以我會接受。首先，是的，我們每年的營運支出約為 32 億美元，比這個數字略低一些，也略高一些。但在過去的五年裡，他們最終將這個數字四捨五入到了那個數字。

OpEx, most of OpEx, is an investment. That's how we think about it. Obviously, R&D continues to strengthen our -- the broadest portfolio in the industry that we have, both analog and embedded. But even inside of SG&A, there are several key pieces there that are key investments. TI.com is one that comes to mind, and we'll talk more about TI.com specifically at the capital management call next week.

OpEx，大部分的OpEx，是一種投資。我們就是這樣想的。顯然，研發不斷加強我們的——業界最廣泛的產品組合，包括模擬和嵌入式產品。但即使在銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 內部，也有幾個關鍵部分是關鍵投資。我想到的是 TI.com，我們將在下週的資本管理電話會議上具體討論 TI.com。

So OpEx fuels our future growth. We don't really think about it from a percent of revenue standpoint. But to help you with that, we have guided that over the long term should trend between 20% and 25%. Of course, we're -- right now, we're at about 18% or so. So that 3.2, I wouldn't expect it to change significantly in the short term. But over time, over many years, it should -- 20% to 25% is probably the right way to look at it.

因此，OpEx 推動了我們未來的成長。我們其實並沒有從收入百分比的角度來考慮這個問題。但為了幫助您實現這一點，我們指導您長期趨勢應在 20% 到 25% 之間。當然，目前我們的比例大約是 18% 左右。因此，對於 3.2，我預計它在短期內不會發生重大變化。但隨著時間的推移，經過許多年，它應該——20%到25%可能是正確的看法。

We'll hear next from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們來聽聽德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩的發言。

Congrats on the strong result and guide. I wanted to ask about the gross margin side of things. I know one quarter doesn't make a trend, but the incremental gross margin was way bigger in the fourth quarter than expected, and it seems like the first quarter has also guided for the gross margin to perhaps rise again sequentially. So whether it's a short term or kind of a longer-term description or answer, what are the big drivers of the upside that you're seeing in the near term? And how much of that do we expect to continue going into 2022 and beyond?

祝賀取得的優異成績和指導。我想問一下毛利率方面的情況。我知道一個季度並不能代表什麼趨勢，但第四季度的增量毛利率遠高於預期，而第一季的毛利率似乎也預示著毛利率可能會再次環比上升。那麼，無論是短期還是長期的描述或答案，您所看到的短期上漲的主要驅動力是什麼？我們預計到 2022 年及以後還會有多少這樣的成長？

Yes. So a couple of angles on that question on gross margin. First, as you know, you've followed us for a long time, we do not manage to gross margin. We manage to the growth of free cash flow per share. We think that's the key driver of value for the long-term owners of the company. And you can do that with higher gross margins. You can do that with lower gross margins. So that's our focus. But specifically on gross margins, our guidance has been and continues to be, think about it on a fall-through basis, over the long term, 70%, 75%. We have been doing pretty well on that front. The key driver, of course, is revenue growth. But then beyond that 300-millimeter capacity, that continues to be a great tailwind as we have more and more of our capacity on 300-millimeter, we had -- has a structural cost advantage and we'll be continuing to add to that with RFAB2, Lehi and the Sherman complex.

是的。關於毛利率的問題，可以從幾個角度來探討。首先，如您所知，您已經關注我們很長時間了，我們並沒有實現毛利率。我們努力實現每股自由現金流的成長。我們認為這是公司長期所有者價值的關鍵驅動力。而且你可以透過更高的毛利率來實現這一點。你可以用較低的毛利率來做到這一點。這就是我們的重點。但具體到毛利率，我們的指導一直是、並且將繼續是，長期來看，70%、75%。我們在這方面做得相當不錯。當然，關鍵驅動力是營收成長。但是，除了 300 毫米的產能之外，這仍然是一個巨大的順風，因為我們在 300 毫米上的產能越來越多，我們擁有結構性成本優勢，我們將繼續透過 RFAB2、Lehi 和 Sherman 綜合設施來增加這一優勢。

The last comment I'll make is -- and we'll give you more details on that next week on capital management, but CapEx has been going up and will continue to go up over a number of years with those investments that I mentioned. Those are long-term investments. Those are going to set us up great for the next 15-plus years. So I'm very happy about this. I'm pleased with that. We're confident about those. But that does flow through the P&L as higher depreciation. So I expect CapEx to go up, and depreciation will follow. And that will have an impact on gross margins. But frankly, at the end of the day, that's accounting. The investment is happening now. It will happen over the next few years with that additional CapEx, and that will just put us in a great position to grow the top line and have really great fall-throughs over a long time to come.

我要做的最後一點評論是——我們將在下週為您提供有關資本管理的更多詳細信息，但隨著我提到的那些投資，資本支出一直在上升，並將在未來幾年繼續上升。這些都是長期投資。這些將為我們未來 15 年的發展奠定堅實的基礎。所以我對此感到非常高興。我對此感到很高興。我們對此充滿信心。但這確實會以更高的折舊的形式流入損益表。因此我預期資本支出將會上升，貶值也會隨之而來。這將對毛利率產生影響。但坦白說，歸根結底，這就是會計。投資正在進行中。在接下來的幾年裡，隨著額外的資本支出，這一目標將會實現，這將使我們在未來很長一段時間內處於有利地位，實現營收成長，並取得非常好的成果。

Do you have a follow-on, Ross?

羅斯，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. I just wanted to pivot back to the revenue side. And whether it's industrial or automotive, your two focus markets, they look like they both grew kind of 30%, 35% year over year in 2021 as a whole. That's significantly faster than the secular growth rate that you guys have delivered, but not terribly different than the peer group for the year. So I just wondered how do you guys explain that level of growth? You don't seem to see any inventory anywhere. The end markets don't seem to be growing that fast. But whether it's for TI specifically or the group as a whole, I wonder -- the sector as a whole -- I wonder how you would explain that growth and the sustainability of it.

是的。我只是想回到收入方面。無論是工業還是汽車，這兩個重點市場，2021 年全年的年成長率似乎都達到了 30% 到 35%。這比你們實現的長期成長率要快得多，但與今年的同業相比並沒有太大差別。所以我只是想知道你們如何解釋這種成長水準？您似乎在任何地方都看不到任何庫存。終端市場似乎沒有成長那麼快。但我想知道，無論是針對 TI 還是整個集團——整個行業——您會如何解釋這種增長及其可持續性。

Yes. So I think that it's clear, as we look at those markets over time, we believe that there's going to be content growth. So let me just talk about the long-term prospects of both of those markets. So it's very easily seen in the automotive market that there's content growth. We can see the cars today just have more semi content in them per vehicle than what we drove five years ago, 10 years ago. And it's very clear that that's going to continue.

是的。因此我認為很明顯，當我們長期觀察這些市場時，我們相信內容將會成長。那麼，我來談談這兩個市場的長期前景。因此，在汽車市場很容易看到內容的成長。我們可以看到，如今每輛汽車中的半拖車含量比五年前、十年前都要多。很明顯，這種情況將會持續下去。

That same phenomenon -- it's just a lot harder to see -- is going on in the industrial market, and that's what we love about it. It's not one thing. We've got 13 sectors that make up that market. We have hundreds of end equipments that we're working on and tens of thousands of customers that we're working for. And our product portfolio is just positioned perfectly for that. So it's really a strategic focus that's on it.

同樣的現象——只是更難發現——正在工業市場發生，而這正是我們喜歡它的原因。這不是一件事。我們有 13 個產業構成該市場。我們正在處理數百種終端設備，並為數萬名客戶服務。我們的產品組合正好適合這個目標。因此這確實是一個戰略重點。

Now is there going to be noise around growth rates in any one given year? And John pointed out with SIA data, the stuff bouncing around, that's going to happen, but we're going to put in place growth and capacity to support that growth for the long term, and it's because we've got the confidence that those markets are going to grow and those secular trends are going to continue. So thank you, Ross.

那麼，某一年的成長率是否會波動？約翰根據 SIA 的數據指出，這種情況會發生，但我們將建立成長和產能來長期支持這種成長，這是因為我們有信心這些市場將會成長，這些長期趨勢將會持續下去。所以謝謝你，羅斯。

And now we'll move on to our next question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

現在讓我們來回答 Stifel 的 Tore Svanberg 提出的下一個問題。

Congratulations on the solid execution here. First question is on customer behavior, perhaps on the ordering front. So I think there's a lot of investors that are worried that inflation is kind of stalling the economies globally. Are you not seeing any change at all in your customers' behavior from higher prices? Because obviously, there is inflation in the semiconductor industry, too. So have you not seen any change in order behavior at all sequentially?

恭喜您在這裡的出色表現。第一個問題是關於客戶行為，也許是在訂購方面。所以我認為很多投資人擔心通貨膨脹會阻礙全球經濟發展。您是否沒有看到客戶的行為因價格上漲而有任何變化？因為很明顯，半導體產業也存在通貨膨脹。那麼，您是否沒有看到訂單行為有任何連續的變化？

Well, yes, Tore, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add anything. I'd say that the environment that, as we mentioned before, is very similar to 90 days ago. The customer behavior that we talked about with the matched set continued. So really not -- in a 90-day period, has there been a change? Nothing that we could measure on that front. So Rafael, anything to add?

嗯，是的，托爾，我先開始，還有拉斐爾，如果你想補充什麼的話。我想說，正如我們之前提到的，目前的環境與 90 天前非常相似。我們與配對集討論的客戶行為仍在繼續。那麼實際上不是——在 90 天的時間裡，有變化嗎？在這方面我們無法衡量任何事情。那麼拉斐爾，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No.

不。

No. Yes. So you have a follow-on?

不，是的。那你還有後續嗎？

Yes. When we think about your capacity expansion, you talked a lot about the front end. But Rafael, you mentioned you're also doing some assembly and test expansions. Could you elaborate a little bit on that, especially how it would impact the CapEx numbers going forward?

是的。當我們考慮您的產能擴展時，您談了很多關於前端的事情。但是拉斐爾，你提到你也在做一些組裝和測試擴充。您能否詳細說明一下這一點，特別是它將如何影響未來的資本支出數字？

Yes. No, thanks for that question. We -- as you alluded to, a lot of the conversations on CapEx do tend to be on the fab side. That's because that's where a disproportionate amount of the money goes to, which is very capital intensive. And it's also because the lead times to build those are much longer, the type of structure that you have to build, et cetera. But we're also spending a lot of time internally on the back end and what we need to do on that front. We're going to give you more details on that next week. But essentially, we do have plans going on at various countries where we already have operations to continue to expand capacity to match that front-end capacity and always be ahead of demand.

是的。不，謝謝你的提問。正如您所提到的，許多關於資本支出的討論都傾向於在晶圓廠方面進行。這是因為，大量的資金都流向了資本密集領域。這也是因為建造這些建築的準備時間要長得多，你必須建造的結構類型等等。但我們內部也花了大量時間在後端以及我們需要在這方面做的事情。我們將在下周向您提供更多詳細資訊。但本質上，我們確實在已經開展業務的各個國家製定了計劃，繼續擴大產能以匹配前端產能並始終領先於需求。

We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們將回答摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 提出的下一個問題。

Congrats on the solid results and execution. As you guys mentioned, relative to your view 90 days ago, it looks like things didn't change all that much from a fundamental perspective, right, selective hot spots, lead time stable, broad-based demand. So how much of the upside was actually driven by an increase in supply availability, both from your internal manufacturing and outsource partners? Because it looks like you guys were capacity constrained starting from about the middle of last year. So just wondering if you're able to bring on some additional supply in Q4, which drove some of the upside.

恭喜您所取得的堅實成果和執行力。正如你們所提到的，相對於 90 天前的觀點，從基本面來看，情況似乎並沒有太大變化，對吧，選擇性熱點，交貨時間穩定，需求廣泛。那麼，實際的成長有多少是由內部製造和外包合作夥伴的供應量增加所推動的呢？因為看起來你們從去年年中開始就受到產能限制。所以我只是想知道您是否能夠在第四季度帶來一些額外的供應，從而推動一些上漲。

Yes. So I'll start, and Dave, if you want to chime in. But I would tell you, first, as Dave mentioned during the call, prepared remarks and during a couple of questions, the strength was broad-based across geographies and end markets, et cetera.

是的。那我先開始了，戴夫，如果你想插話的話。但我想告訴你，首先，正如戴夫在電話會議、準備好的演講和在幾個問題中提到的那樣，這種優勢是廣泛存在於各個地域和終端市場等等的。

On your specific comment on capacity, as we have said probably for the last four quarters or so, maybe longer, we have been and will continue to bring capacity incrementally. Incrementally, meaning relatively small steps. But nevertheless, those make a difference, especially on a cumulative basis, right? So we have been doing that for some time, and that's obviously helping. I mean you could see not only our revenue has improved during this cycle, but we went from draining inventory, to now the last two quarters, we've actually increased inventory, albeit at a relatively low level, but still much better than draining inventory. So that gives you an appreciation for what that incremental -- those incremental additions to capacity have done. We expect to continue to increase incrementally, again, relatively small steps for another two quarters, and then RFAB2 comes online sometime in the third quarter of this year, 2022, and that will give us more legroom on those tailwinds. And then about six months later, Q1 '23, we'll have Lehi -- LFAB -- come online once it's qualified, and that will give us also more legroom on that front.

關於您對產能的具體評論，正如我們在過去四個季度左右甚至更長時間內所說的那樣，我們一直在並將繼續逐步提高產能。逐步地，意味著相對較小的步驟。但無論如何，這些都會產生影響，尤其是從累積的角度來看，對嗎？我們已經這樣做了一段時間，這顯然是有幫助的。我的意思是，你可以看到，不僅我們的收入在這個週期內有所提高，而且我們從消耗庫存到現在的最後兩個季度，我們實際上增加了庫存，儘管水平相對較低，但仍然比消耗庫存要好得多。這樣您就可以了解增量 — — 增量增加的容量所產生的作用。我們預計在接下來的兩個季度中將繼續以相對較小的步伐逐步增加，然後 RFAB2 將於今年第三季度（2022 年）的某個時候上線，這將為我們帶來更多的順風空間。大約六個月後，在 2023 年第一季度，一旦獲得資格，我們就會讓 Lehi（LFAB）上線，這也將為我們在這方面提供更多的空間。

Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

哈蘭，你還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. So when the team announced the purchase of the Lehi 300-millimeter fab, you noted that Lehi would start off with 65- and 45-nanometer analog and embedded processing products, which is somewhat of a strategic change, right, because you guys have always been focused on 300-millimeter analog products. So is TI bringing embedded in-house because you have some sort of competitive differentiators on the manufacturing side for your next-generation embedded portfolio? Or is it just a focus on lower cost versus outsourcing and moving the manufacturing mix towards more in-sourced over time?

是的。因此，當團隊宣布收購 Lehi 300 毫米晶圓廠時，您指出 Lehi 將從 65 奈米和 45 奈米模擬和嵌入式處理產品開始，這在某種程度上是一種策略變化，對吧，因為您一直專注於 300 毫米模擬產品。那麼，TI 將嵌入式技術引入內部，是因為你們在下一代嵌入式產品組合的製造方面具有某種競爭優勢嗎？或者只是專注於降低成本而不是外包，並隨著時間的推移將製造組合轉向更多的內部採購？

Yes, I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add, please do. If you look, we do manufacture embedded today in DMOS6. So part of our manufacturing footprint today includes embedded. And so with the Lehi factory, we will be able to build additional product there. And I would say, over time, foundry will continue to be a portion of our footprint. But as our revenue grows as a percentage of revenue, could that move some? It could. But we will continue to build products both internally and externally. And I'll just say that as we invest in 300-millimeter, both for analog and embedded, that brings the same cost advantages to us. It allows better control of our supply chain. And certainly, in periods like this, it shows why that that's an important advantage for us. So okay. Thank you, Harlan. And I think we've got time for one more caller.

是的，我先開始，拉斐爾，如果你想添加，請添加。如果你看一下，你會發現我們今天確實在 DMOS6 中嵌入了製造。因此，我們今天的製造足跡的一部分包括嵌入式。因此，有了利哈伊工廠，我們將能夠在那裡生產更多的產品。我想說，隨著時間的推移，代工將繼續成為我們業務足跡的一部分。但隨著我們的收入佔總收入的百分比不斷增長，這能帶來一些變化嗎？有可能。但我們將繼續在內部和外部打造產品。我只想說，當我們投資 300 毫米時，無論是模擬還是嵌入式，它都為我們帶來了相同的成本優勢。它可以讓我們更好地控制供應鏈。當然，在這樣的時期，這顯示了為什麼這對我們來說是一個重要的優勢。好吧。謝謝你，哈蘭。我想我們還有時間再接聽一位來電者。

We'll take our next question from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們將回答 BMO 的 Ambrish Srivastava 提出的下一個問題。

Dave and Rafael, I had a question on end markets. And specifically in auto, there is a lot of concern, it has been for more than a couple of quarters, about semi components going into the industry and the auto units, the big gap. And if I look at your automotive, the year-over-year change, at least a rapid -- I think it was up 2x a couple of quarters ago. That seems to be decelerating. So can you just help us kind of -- seems to be some parts of forward, but the concern is that the supply chain collectively is holding up on a lot of inventory. So just with -- I'd love to get your perspective. And Dave, I think last quarter, you had given us a pre-pandemic level, and you had kind of contrasted what you shipped last quarter versus that number.

戴夫和拉斐爾，我有一個關於終端市場的問題。特別是在汽車行業，人們非常擔心，這種情況已經持續了幾個季度，人們擔心進入該行業的半成品零件和汽車整車之間存在巨大的差距。如果我看一下你的汽車，那麼同比變化至少是快速的——我認為幾個季度前增長了 2 倍。這一速度似乎正在減緩。那麼你能不能幫幫我們——這似乎是前進的某些部分，但令人擔憂的是，整個供應鏈都積壓了大量庫存。所以——我很想聽聽你的看法。戴夫，我想上個季度你給了我們一個疫情前的水平，並且你對上個季度的出貨量與那個數字進行了對比。

Yes. So Ambrish, maybe I'll start, and Rafael, if you want to add to it. And first, I'll just make a comment that our team has done a good job supporting customers really across all of our end markets. When we look at that pre-pandemic level of fourth quarter of '19 and just picking that to fourth quarter '21, revenue overall is up 40%. And we grew shipments in all of our end markets. So I think that that's important to point out. So we believe inside of that, we've made strategic progress in industrial and in automotive that will pay dividends for us for years ahead. But our teams really have done a great job supporting customers across that board.

是的。那麼，也許由我來開始，由 Ambrish 開始，還有 Rafael，如果你想補充的話。首先，我要說的是，我們的團隊確實為所有終端市場的客戶提供了良好的支援。當我們回顧 2019 年第四季疫情前的水平，並將其推算到 2021 年第四季時，整體營收成長了 40%。我們在所有終端市場的出貨量均有所成長。所以我認為指出這一點很重要。因此，我們相信，我們在工業和汽車領域取得了戰略進展，這將在未來幾年為我們帶來獎金。但我們的團隊確實在全面支援客戶方面做得非常出色。

And some of those year-on-year transitions, Ambrish, as you know, some of those really big numbers -- I think one quarter, we had close to 100%, maybe even above that -- that was more of a function of how low shipments have gotten the quarter before. So that's where I talk about when things get really noisy, you really have to begin to look at it over these longer periods of time. But I think that that's a really good number to look at for our overall shipments. So do you have a follow-up to that, Ambrish?

如你所知，Ambrish，其中一些同比成長率確實很大，我認為有一個季度，我們的成長率接近 100%，甚至可能更高，但這更多的取決於上一季的出貨量有多低。所以這就是我所說的，當事情變得非常混亂時，你真的必須開始從更長的時間段來看待它。但我認為，對於我們的整體出貨量來說，這是一個非常好的數字。那麼，Ambrish，您對此還有後續消息嗎？

I had a separate follow-up, Dave. I've never seen a -- such a broad mention of a TI chip being short as PMIC. And it started with PCs. Now we hear from pretty much every end market. Everybody is pointing the TI. The question I get from investors, and I have it myself as well, so I don't want to just say from investors, just how did TI -- you guys are -- at least I hold you at the pedestal in terms of ops, planning, supply chain management. How did you guys get to that point where one part -- and I know it's a small piece of your overall business. But more importantly, how do you convince us that this does not translate into potential share losses when people start to design you out potentially because this time, several quarters, you couldn't supply the part?

我有一個單獨的後續行動，戴夫。我從未見過如此廣泛地提及 TI 晶片被簡稱為 PMIC。一切始於個人電腦。現在我們聽到了幾乎所有終端市場的消息。每個人都在指責 TI。我從投資者那裡得到了這個問題，我自己也有這個問題，所以我不想只從投資者那裡說，TI 是如何做到的——你們是——至少在營運、規劃、供應鏈管理方面，我把你們放在首位。你們是如何達到這一步的——我知道這只是你們整體業務的一小部分。但更重要的是，當人們開始設計你時，可能因為這一次，幾個季度後，你無法提供零件，你如何讓我們相信這不會轉化為潛在的份額損失？

Yes. Fair question, Ambrish. And I'd point to maybe a couple of things. First, I'd point that we've got the broadest portfolio in the industry. When we engage with customers, it's not unusual for us to have a dozen, two dozen, sometimes three, four dozen different components shipped or on any particular design in any particular system. So it only takes one of those products to -- for our teams to have to work closely with that customer on. And as I talked about before, our teams have really done a great job supporting customers across the board, across those products. And that's what we'll continue to focus on.

是的。問得好，安布里什。我想指出幾件事。首先，我想指出我們擁有業內最廣泛的產品組合。當我們與客戶接觸時，我們通常會運送十幾個、二十幾個、有時是三四十個不同的組件，或運送任何特定係統中任何特定設計的組件。因此，只需要其中一種產品——我們的團隊就必須與該客戶密切合作。正如我之前提到的，我們的團隊確實在為所有產品的客戶提供支援方面做得非常出色。這也是我們將持續關注的重點。

I think as we look to this year, we've got capacity coming online later this year with RFAB2 and those investments that Rafael talked about. We're putting in capacity. Every quarter this year, we've put in capacity, every quarter last year, incrementally. So you see that showing up in our results. And then we've got -- follow that up with the Lehi fab in early 2023. So I think we're in a really good position to continue to support our customers overall. So we'll continue to work really hard at that and deliver the results that follow with that.

我認為，展望今年，我們將在今年稍後透過 RFAB2 和 Rafael 談到的那些投資實現產能上線。我們正在投入產能。今年每個季度，我們都增加了產能，去年每季都是逐步增加。所以您可以看到它出現在我們的結果中。然後，我們將在 2023 年初在 Lehi 工廠繼續工作。因此，我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，可以繼續為我們的客戶提供全面的支援。因此，我們將繼續為此努力，並取得相應的成果。

So with that, I'd like to remind everyone of our upcoming capital management call. And it is on February 3 at 10 a.m. Central Time. And a replay of this call will be available shortly on our website. Good evening.

因此，我想提醒大家我們即將召開資本管理電話會議。時間是 2 月 3 日美國中部時間上午 10 點。本次通話的重播將很快在我們的網站上提供。晚安.

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you all for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。我們非常感謝大家的參與，現在您可以斷開連線了。