德州儀器 (TXN) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to today's Texas Instruments Q4 2020 earnings release conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加今天的德州儀器 (TI) 2020 年第四季度收益發布電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn things over to Mr. Dave Pahl.

這個時候，我想把事情交給Dave Pahl先生。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and 2020 earnings conference call.

下午好，感謝您參加我們的第四季度和 2020 年收益電話會議。

Rafael Lizardi, TI's chief financial officer, is with me today.

TI 的首席財務官 Rafael Lizardi 今天和我在一起。

For any of you who missed the release, you can find it on our website at ti.com/ir.

對於錯過該版本的任何人，您可以在我們的網站 ti.com/ir 上找到它。

This call is being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed through our website.

此電話正在網絡上直播，可以通過我們的網站訪問。

A replay will be available through the web.

重播將通過網絡提供。

This call will include forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause TI's results to differ materially from management's current expectations.

此電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及可能導致 TI 的結果與管理層當前預期存在重大差異的風險和不確定性。

We encourage you to review the "Notice regarding forward-looking statements" contained in the earnings release published today, as well as TI's most recent SEC filings, for a more complete description.

我們鼓勵您查看今天發布的收益發布中包含的“關於前瞻性陳述的通知”，以及 TI 最近提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件，以獲得更完整的描述。

First, let me provide some information that's important for your calendars.

首先，讓我提供一些對您的日曆很重要的信息。

We plan to hold a call to review our capital management on February 4 at 10:00 a.m.

我們計劃於 2 月 4 日上午 10:00 召開電話會議，審查我們的資本管理。

Central Time.

中部時間。

Similar to what we've done in the past, Rafael and I will summarize our progress and provide some insight into our business and approach to capital allocation.

與我們過去所做的類似，拉斐爾和我將總結我們的進展，並對我們的業務和資本配置方法提供一些見解。

For today's call, let me start by summarizing what Rafael and I will be reviewing.

對於今天的電話會議，讓我首先總結一下 Rafael 和我將要審查的內容。

First, I'll start with a quick overview of the quarter, and next, I'll provide some insight into fourth quarter revenue results.

首先，我將從本季度的快速概覽開始，接下來，我將提供對第四季度收入結果的一些見解。

And as we've done the past few quarters, we'll provide details by end market, including sequential performance, since it's more informative at this time.

正如我們在過去幾個季度所做的那樣，我們將按終端市場提供詳細信息，包括連續表現，因為此時它的信息量更大。

I'll also provide the annual summary of revenue breakdown by end markets.

我還將提供按終端市場細分的年度收入摘要。

And lastly, Rafael will cover the financial results, some insight into one-time items and our guidance for the first quarter of 2021.

最後，Rafael 將介紹財務業績、對一次性項目的一些見解以及我們對 2021 年第一季度的指導。

So starting with a quick overview of the fourth quarter: The company's revenue increased 7% sequentially and 22% year-over-year, driven by strong demand in automotive, personal electronics and the industrial markets.

因此，從第四季度的快速概覽開始：在汽車、個人電子產品和工業市場的強勁需求推動下，公司收入環比增長 7%，同比增長 22%。

Analog revenue grew 9% and Embedded grew 11% sequentially.

模擬收入環比增長 9%，嵌入式收入環比增長 11%。

On a year-over-year basis, Analog revenue grew 25% and Embedded grew 14%.

與去年同期相比，模擬收入增長 25%，嵌入式增長 14%。

Our Other segment grew 4% from a year-ago quarter.

我們的其他部門比去年同期增長 4%。

Moving on, I'll now provide some insight into the fourth quarter revenue by end market.

繼續，我現在將按終端市場提供對第四季度收入的一些見解。

First, the automotive market continued its rebound following the second quarter bottom, with 19% sequential growth and 25% year-over-year growth.

首先，汽車市場在第二季度觸底後繼續反彈，環比增長 19%，同比增長 25%。

The industrial market was up 7% sequentially and 16% from the year ago.

工業市場環比增長 7%，同比增長 16%。

The strength was seen across most market sectors.

大多數市場領域都表現強勁。

Personal electronics was up 11% sequentially and up 39% compared to a year ago.

個人電子產品環比增長 11%，與一年前相比增長 39%。

The strength was broad-based across sectors and customers within personal electronics.

個人電子產品中的各個行業和客戶都具有廣泛的優勢。

Next, as expected, communications equipment was down 28% sequentially and down 8% from the year ago.

接下來，正如預期的那樣，通信設備環比下降 28%，比去年同期下降 8%。

Enterprise systems was down 2% sequentially and down 13% from a year ago.

企業系統環比下降 2%，比一年前下降 13%。

And lastly, as we do at the end of each calendar year, I'll describe our revenue by end market for 2020.

最後，正如我們在每個日曆年末所做的那樣，我將按終端市場描述 2020 年的收入。

We break our end markets into six categories that are grouped by their life cycles and market characteristics.

我們將終端市場分為六類，按其生命週期和市場特徵進行分組。

The six end markets are industrial; automotive; personal electronics, which includes products such as mobile phones, PCs, tablets and TVs; communications equipment; enterprise systems; and other, which is primarily calculators.

六個終端市場是工業的；汽車；個人電子產品，包括手機、個人電腦、平板電腦和電視等產品；通訊設備；企業系統；和其他，主要是計算器。

As a percentage of revenue for the year, industrial was 37%; automotive 20%; personal electronics 27%; communications equipment 8%; enterprise systems 6%; and other was 2%.

工業佔全年收入的百分比為 37%；汽車 20%；個人電子產品 27%；通訊設備 8%；企業系統 6%；其他為2%。

Looking at the changes versus 2019, industrial increased one percentage point, automotive declined one percent [point] (added by company after the call), personal electronics increased four, communications equipment declined three, enterprise systems was even and other declined one percentage point.

從與 2019 年相比的變化來看，工業增長 1 個百分點，汽車下降 1 個百分點[點]（公司在電話會議後添加），個人電子產品增長 4 個，通信設備下降 3 個百分點，企業系統持平，其他下降 1 個百分點。

In 2020, industrial and automotive combined made up 57% of TI's revenue, about even with last year and up [from] (added by company after the call) 42% in 2013.

2020 年，工業和汽車行業合計佔 TI 收入的 57%，與去年持平，而 2013 年為 42%（由公司在電話會議後添加）。

We see good opportunities in all of our markets, but we place additional strategic emphasis on industrial and automotive.

我們在所有市場中都看到了良好的機會，但我們將額外的戰略重點放在工業和汽車領域。

Our industrial and automotive customers are increasingly turning to analog and embedded technology to make their end products smarter, safer, more connected and more efficient.

我們的工業和汽車客戶越來越多地轉向模擬和嵌入式技術，以使他們的終端產品更智能、更安全、連接性更強和更高效。

These trends have resulted and will continue to result in growing chip content per application, which will drive faster growth compared to our other markets.

這些趨勢已經並將繼續導致每個應用程序的芯片含量不斷增加，與我們的其他市場相比，這將推動更快的增長。

Rafael will now review profitability, capital management and our outlook.

Rafael 現在將審查盈利能力、資本管理和我們的前景。

Thanks, Dave, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝，戴夫，大家下午好。

Gross profit in the quarter was $2.6 billion, or 65% of revenue.

本季度的毛利潤為 26 億美元，佔收入的 65%。

From a year ago, gross profit increased primarily due to higher revenue.

與一年前相比，毛利潤增加主要是由於收入增加。

Gross profit margin increased 230 basis points.

毛利率增加 230 個基點。

Operating expenses in the quarter were $786 million, down 2% from a year ago and about as expected.

本季度運營費用為 7.86 億美元，同比下降 2%，與預期基本一致。

On a trailing 12-month basis, operating expenses were 22% of revenue.

在過去 12 個月的基礎上，運營費用佔收入的 22%。

For the year, we have invested $1.5 billion in R&D, an important element of our capital allocation.

今年，我們在研發方面投資了 15 億美元，這是我們資本配置的重要組成部分。

We are pleased with our disciplined process of allocating capital to R&D, which we believe will allow us to continue to grow our top line over the long term.

我們對我們將資金分配給研發的嚴格流程感到滿意，我們相信這將使我們能夠在長期內繼續增長我們的收入。

Acquisition charges, a noncash expense, were $47 million in the fourth quarter.

收購費用是一項非現金支出，第四季度為 4700 萬美元。

Acquisition charges will remain at about this level through the third quarter of 2021.

到 2021 年第三季度，收購費用將保持在這個水平左右。

Operating profit was $1.8 billion, or 44% of revenue.

營業利潤為 18 億美元，佔收入的 44%。

Operating profit was up 45% from the year-ago quarter.

營業利潤比去年同期增長 45%。

Other income and expense was $162 million in the quarter due to a one-time benefit related to the signing of a multiyear royalty agreement.

本季度其他收入和支出為 1.62 億美元，這是由於與簽署多年特許權使用費協議相關的一次性收益。

Net income in the fourth quarter was $1.7 billion, or $1.80 per share, which included a 16-cent benefit that was not in our prior outlook, primarily due to the royalty agreement we just mentioned.

第四季度的淨收入為 17 億美元，或每股 1.80 美元，其中包括我們之前預期中沒有的 16 美分收益，這主要是由於我們剛才提到的特許權使用費協議。

Let me now comment on our capital management results, starting with our cash generation.

現在讓我從我們的現金生成開始評論我們的資本管理結果。

Cash flow from operations was $2.1 billion in the quarter.

本季度運營現金流為 21 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $212 million in the quarter.

本季度的資本支出為 2.12 億美元。

Free cash flow on a trailing 12-month basis was $5.5 billion, down 5% from a year ago.

過去 12 個月的自由現金流為 55 億美元，比一年前下降 5%。

In the quarter, we paid $937 million in dividends.

本季度，我們支付了 9.37 億美元的股息。

We have increased our dividend per share by 13%, marking our 17th year of dividend increases.

我們將每股股息提高了 13%，標誌著我們連續第 17 年增加股息。

We repurchased $15 million of our own stock for a total return of cash to owners in the fourth quarter of about $1 billion.

我們回購了 1500 萬美元的自有股票，第四季度向所有者返還的現金總額約為 10 億美元。

For the year 2020, we returned $6 billion, consistent with our strategy to return all free cash flow to our owners.

2020 年，我們返還了 60 億美元，符合我們將所有自由現金流返還給所有者的戰略。

Over the same period, our dividend represented 62% of free cash flow, underscoring its sustainability.

同期，我們的股息佔自由現金流的 62%，凸顯了其可持續性。

Our balance sheet remains strong with $6.6 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the fourth quarter.

截至第四季度末，我們的資產負債表依然強勁，現金和短期投資達 66 億美元。

Total debt was $6.8 billion with a weighted average coupon of 2.77%.

總債務為 68 億美元，加權平均息票率為 2.77%。

Inventory days were 123, down 21 days from a year ago and down 14 days sequentially.

庫存天數為123天，同比減少21天，環比減少14天。

Now let's look at some of these results for the year.

現在讓我們看看今年的一些結果。

In 2020, cash flow from operations was $6.1 billion.

2020 年，運營現金流為 61 億美元。

Capital expenditures were $649 million, or 4.5% of revenue.

資本支出為 6.49 億美元，佔收入的 4.5%。

Free cash flow for 2020 was $5.5 billion, or 38% of revenue.

2020 年的自由現金流為 55 億美元，佔收入的 38%。

Our cash flow reflects the strength of our business model.

我們的現金流反映了我們商業模式的實力。

As we have said, we believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value.

正如我們所說，我們認為每股自由現金流的增長是長期價值的主要驅動力。

And after accretive investments in the business, the remaining cash will be returned over time via dividends and share repurchases.

在對業務進行增值投資後，剩餘現金將隨著時間的推移通過股息和股票回購返還。

Over the last 12 months, we paid $3.4 billion in dividends and purchased $2.6 billion of our shares, reducing outstanding share count by 1.4% in 2020.

在過去的 12 個月裡，我們支付了 34 億美元的股息併購買了 26 億美元的股票，使 2020 年的流通股數量減少了 1.4%。

Turning to our outlook for the first quarter, we expect TI revenue in the range of $3.79 billion to $4.11 billion and earnings per share to be in the range of $1.44 to $1.66.

談到我們對第一季度的展望，我們預計 TI 收入在 37.9 億美元至 41.1 億美元之間，每股收益在 1.44 美元至 1.66 美元之間。

We expect our 2021 annual operating tax rate to continue to be about 14% and our effective tax rate about a percentage lower than that -- a percentage point lower than that.

我們預計我們 2021 年的年度營業稅率將繼續保持在 14% 左右，而我們的有效稅率將比這低一個百分點——比那個低一個百分點。

In closing, we will stay focused in the areas that add value in the long term.

最後，我們將繼續專注於長期增值的領域。

We continue to invest in our competitive advantages, which are manufacturing and technology, broad product portfolio, reach of our channels, and diverse and long-lived positions.

我們繼續投資於我們的競爭優勢，即製造和技術、廣泛的產品組合、我們的渠道覆蓋面以及多樣化和長期的地位。

We will continue to strengthen these advantages through disciplined capital allocation and by focusing on the best market opportunities, which we believe will enable us to continue to improve and deliver free cash flow per share growth over the long term.

我們將通過嚴格的資本配置和專注於最佳市場機會來繼續加強這些優勢，我們相信這將使我們能夠繼續改善並實現每股自由現金流的長期增長。

With that, let me turn it back to Dave.

有了這個，讓我把它轉回給戴夫。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Rafael.

謝謝，拉斐爾。

Operator, you can now open the lines for questions.

接線員，您現在可以打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Operator?

（操作員說明）操作員？

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first today to John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）今天我們將首先與 Crédit Suisse 一起去 John Pitzer。

Congratulations on the solid results.

祝賀你取得了不錯的成績。

Dave and Rafael, I'm wondering if you could talk a little bit about just the current demand backdrop.

戴夫和拉斐爾，我想知道你是否可以談談當前的需求背景。

I mean, clearly, we're hearing about lead times stretching out in the semi industry.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們聽說半導體行業的交貨時間延長了。

Many of your peers are talking about raising pricing.

您的許多同行都在談論提高價格。

I guess, specifically to you guys, can you help us understand what your lead times are doing?

我想，特別是對你們來說，你們能幫助我們了解你們的交貨時間嗎？

What you guys are thinking about doing around pricing?

你們正在考慮圍繞定價做什麼？

And I guess more importantly, given your inventory strategy and the fact that you ran your fabs a little bit fuller last year, do you think the current results represent your ability to gain some incremental share as some of your peers just are having a harder time supplying customers right now?

而且我想更重要的是，考慮到您的庫存策略以及去年您的晶圓廠運行得更滿一點的事實，您認為當前的結果是否代表您獲得一些增量份額的能力，因為您的一些同行只是處境艱難現在供應客戶？

Yes.

是的。

John, let me take -- you covered a lot of ground with that first question, so let me take some pieces of it.

約翰，讓我來——你在第一個問題中涵蓋了很多內容，所以讓我來談談。

Rafael, if you want to add anything, and if I miss any, John, we'll give you a chance for the follow-up.

拉斐爾，如果你想補充什麼，如果我遺漏了什麼，約翰，我們會給你機會進行跟進。

But the first one, certainly, we've read the same reports and seeing the same releases from our peers on the supply constraints and raising prices.

但第一個，當然，我們已經閱讀了相同的報告，並從我們的同行那裡看到了關於供應限制和價格上漲的相同版本。

The short answer -- are we doing that -- the short answer is no.

簡短的回答——我們這樣做了嗎——簡短的回答是否定的。

And I think that, that brings us to, one of our foundational competitive advantages is manufacturing and technology, and that really provides two benefits.

我認為，這將我們帶到了我們的基本競爭優勢之一是製造和技術，這確實提供了兩個好處。

One is the obvious, which is lower cost, but the second is just greater control of our supply chain.

一個是顯而易見的，即成本更低，但第二個是對我們供應鏈的更大控制。

So it's really times like this and really throughout 2020 that, that greater control of your supply chains really becomes a great advantage.

所以真的是這樣的時候，真的是整個 2020 年，更好地控制你的供應鏈真的成為一個很大的優勢。

Yes.

是的。

I'll just add on the inventory angle of your question, John.

約翰，我只是補充一下你問題的庫存角度。

Remember, our long-term objective for inventory, as we have talked about in many capital management calls, is to maintain high levels of customer service while we minimize inventory obsolescence.

請記住，正如我們在許多資本管理電話會議中談到的那樣，我們的庫存長期目標是保持高水平的客戶服務，同時最大限度地減少庫存過時。

Now part of the reason we can do that is that we are strategically positioned -- the way we run the company, our business model and competitive advantages where we -- our parts are mainly catalog parts that sell into industrial and automotive, our focus is on those, with very long product life cycles so we can build inventory ahead of demand, we can position that inventory well.

現在我們能夠做到這一點的部分原因是我們的戰略定位——我們經營公司的方式、我們的商業模式和我們的競爭優勢——我們的零件主要是銷售到工業和汽車的目錄零件，我們的重點是在那些產品生命週期很長的產品上，我們可以在需求之前建立庫存，我們可以很好地定位該庫存。

That served us well in 2020, and will continue to serve us well from a business model standpoint in order to maintain those high levels of customer service with our customers.

這在 2020 年為我們提供了良好的服務，並將繼續從商業模式的角度為我們提供良好的服務，以便與我們的客戶保持高水平的客戶服務。

So I think we've got most of the pieces.

所以我認為我們已經掌握了大部分內容。

John, do you have a follow-up or other pieces we can touch on?

約翰，你有跟進或其他我們可以觸及的部分嗎？

Yes, just a quick follow-up for Rafael.

是的，只是對 Rafael 的快速跟進。

Rafael, I know you don't specifically guide gross margins, but I was wondering if you could give us some parameters around OpEx for the next couple of quarters.

拉斐爾，我知道你沒有具體指導毛利率，但我想知道你是否可以在接下來的幾個季度為我們提供一些關於 OpEx 的參數。

I mean, we're heading into a strong cyclical recovery in revenue off of what was kind of an unusual expense year last year with COVID.

我的意思是，我們正從去年因 COVID 導致的異常支出而進入收入的強勁週期性複蘇。

And so as we think about the March quarter, can you help us kind of frame the period cost around SG&A and R&D that we should be thinking about?

因此，當我們考慮 3 月季度時，您能否幫助我們構建我們應該考慮的 SG&A 和 R&D 的期間成本？

If you want to give us a gross margin target, that would be great, but I know you tend to avoid that.

如果你想給我們一個毛利率目標，那就太好了，但我知道你傾向於避免那樣做。

Yes.

是的。

On a gross margin, like we have said before, just think of 70% to 75% fall-through.

關於毛利率，就像我們之前說過的，想想 70% 到 75% 的失敗率。

So you figure out what revenue -- incremental revenue you want to play in and just fold that through at 70% to 75%, you get at a good place -- over the long term, right?

所以你要弄清楚什麼收入——你想參與的增量收入，然後把它折疊成 70% 到 75%，你會得到一個好地方——從長遠來看，對吧？

Any one quarter can be a little higher or lower, right?

任何一個季度都可以高一點或低一點，對嗎？

On OpEx, we talked about we can operate between 20% and 25%.

在 OpEx 上，我們談到我們可以在 20% 到 25% 之間運營。

The last -- the last three or four years, we have been between 21% and 22% pretty much, right?

最近——過去三四年，我們的比例幾乎在 21% 到 22% 之間，對吧？

So I don't mean to narrow that range, but that's where we've been running.

所以我並不是要縮小範圍，但這就是我們一直在努力的方向。

And I would expect to stay somewhere in that neighborhood for a foreseeable future.

我希望在可預見的未來留在那個社區的某個地方。

Between 20% and 25%.

在 20% 到 25% 之間。

Yes, between 20% and 25%.

是的，在 20% 到 25% 之間。

Right, right.

是的是的。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, John, and we'll go to the next caller, please.

謝謝你，約翰，我們將轉到下一位來電者。

That will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

這將來自美國銀行的 Vivek Arya。

Congratulations on the strong growth.

祝賀您的強勁增長。

Just wanted to follow up on the demand question.

只是想跟進需求問題。

I'm curious, even if you are able to supply because of your very strong strategic capacity, do you think your customers, especially on the automotive side, might be constrained with other parts of the bill of materials that they get from others and maybe those become bottlenecks?

我很好奇，即使您因為非常強大的戰略能力而能夠供應，您是否認為您的客戶，尤其是汽車方面的客戶，可能會受到他們從其他人那裡獲得的材料清單的其他部分的限制，也許那些成為瓶頸？

I'm just trying to reconcile the very strong demand backdrop that we are hearing from your results and your outlook versus all the news around auto supply chains facing more constraints.

我只是想調和我們從你們的結果和你們的前景中聽到的非常強勁的需求背景與所有關於汽車供應鏈面臨更多限制的消息。

What is the true sense of kind of supply and demand across your customer base?

您的客戶群中真正意義上的供需類型是什麼？

It would be very helpful to hear your views.

聽聽您的意見會很有幫助。

Sure, Vivek.

當然，維維克。

Yes, I think that's a great question.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的問題。

We see the same reports that you're seeing.

我們看到的報告與您看到的相同。

And I think the best way to maybe describe what we're seeing in the automotive market is just a -- just-in-time supply chain that's restarting from essentially a full stop that happened in second quarter.

而且我認為，最好的方式來描述我們在汽車市場上看到的情況只是一個 - 即時供應鏈，它從第二季度發生的基本完全停止中重新開始。

And just as a reminder, what we saw in third quarter was a 75% sequential increase, followed by this last quarter with a 20% sequential increase.

提醒一下，我們在第三季度看到的是 75% 的環比增長，緊隨其後的是上個季度 20% 的環比增長。

So what I'll say is that those reports are fairly widespread.

所以我要說的是，這些報導相當普遍。

And -- but we aren't seeing demand signals that would show us that there's anything that's consistent with any of those constraints that you're pointing out or that are in press releases.

而且 - 但我們沒有看到需求信號會向我們表明，有任何東西與你指出的或新聞稿中的任何限制相一致。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Good to see the growth in the Embedded segment.

很高興看到嵌入式領域的增長。

And I know you made some changes in that business last year.

我知道你去年對該業務進行了一些更改。

Do you think we will start to see the benefits of that in 2021, because they also tend to be somewhat stickier markets?

您是否認為我們會在 2021 年開始看到這樣做的好處，因為它們也往往是更具粘性的市場？

So I'm just curious if you could give us an update on what are you doing specifically to regain market share.

所以我很好奇你是否可以向我們介紹一下你為重新奪回市場份額所做的具體工作。

And do you think we can start to see your Embedded business start to grow in line with your Analog business this year?

您認為今年我們可以開始看到您的嵌入式業務開始與您的模擬業務同步增長嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'll give you a few on those ones.

我會給你一些關於那些的。

So first, we're pleased with the progress we're seeing in Embedded.

首先，我們對在嵌入式領域看到的進步感到高興。

Our plan has called to first stabilize the business and then start to prove that we can resume long-term consistent growth.

我們的計劃要求首先穩定業務，然後開始證明我們可以恢復長期持續增長。

We're leveraging our competitive advantages, particularly building a broad-based, a more diverse product portfolio that can then deliver long-term sustainable growth.

我們正在利用我們的競爭優勢，特別是建立基礎廣泛、更加多樣化的產品組合，從而實現長期可持續增長。

I think it was in second quarter of '20 where we announced -- when we had a restructuring charge related to Embedded -- and we reallocated resources from some product lines, increased investments, some we decreased, others stayed about the same, and we're seeing the beginning of that stabilization on that front.

我認為是在 20 世紀第二季度，我們宣布了與嵌入式相關的重組費用，我們重新分配了一些產品線的資源，增加了投資，減少了一些，其他則保持不變，我們在這方面看到穩定的開始。

We'll hear next from Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們將聽到 Craig Hettenbach 與摩根士丹利的對話。

Dave, just following up on your comments around autos and particularly the just-in-time inventory angle.

戴夫，只是跟進您對汽車的評論，尤其是即時庫存角度。

Certainly, 2020 was a challenging year for the supply chain, and we're dealing with some of those repercussions now.

當然，2020 年對供應鏈來說是充滿挑戰的一年，我們現在正在應對其中的一些影響。

But do you think you'll see some changes to that over time in terms of how they operate from an inventory perspective or something that might be difficult for the next couple of quarters, but kind of gets back to that just-in-time?

但是你認為隨著時間的推移，你會看到從庫存角度來看它們如何運作的一些變化，或者在接下來的幾個季度可能會很困難的事情，但有點回到及時？

Yes, Craig, I don't want to speak for our customers or how they're managing their inventories.

是的，克雷格，我不想代表我們的客戶或他們如何管理庫存。

I think, as you've seen us and how we've managed our business and our operations, we would just work very hard to try to have capacity in place to support our customers' needs.

我認為，正如您所見，以及我們如何管理我們的業務和運營，我們會非常努力地工作，以嘗試擁有適當的能力來支持我們客戶的需求。

You saw the decisions that we made earlier in the year to try to keep high service and optionality in place.

你看到了我們在今年早些時候做出的試圖保持高服務和可選性的決定。

And we'll just continue to try to support our customers' needs, whatever their supply chains look like.

我們只是繼續努力支持客戶的需求，無論他們的供應鍊是什麼樣子。

So -- and whether that's in the automotive market or the other markets.

所以 - 無論是在汽車市場還是其他市場。

So we just -- we try to make them happy.

所以我們只是 - 我們試圖讓他們開心。

That's what we're trying to do.

這就是我們正在努力做的。

Do you have a follow-on?

你有後續嗎？

I do.

我願意。

And just looking at Analog up 25% year-over-year, I know that comes off of a difficult year and coming out of a down cycle, and so that's some of it.

看看 Analog 同比增長 25%，我知道這是艱難的一年，走出了下行週期，僅此而已。

But just curious at a high level, just to get your thoughts of just the type of strength you're seeing and how you feel about what the demand is out there?

但是只是出於好奇，只是為了了解您所看到的力量類型以及您對那裡的需求有何看法？

Can you clarify that a little bit for me, Craig, just so I make sure I answer the right question?

你能為我澄清一下嗎，克雷格，這樣我就可以確保我回答了正確的問題？

Yes.

是的。

So just with the Analog business up 25% year-over-year, that's coming off of an easy comp, if you will, coming out of the down cycle.

因此，隨著模擬業務同比增長 25%，如果你願意的話，這是一個簡單的比較，走出了下行週期。

So I think that's some of it.

所以我認為這就是其中的一部分。

But just curious, I know in some of these calls, you've talked about just your view of just, hey, our supply and demand equilibrium or how you feel like demand is relative to how your business is trending right now?

但只是好奇，我知道在其中一些電話中，你只是談到了你對我們的供需平衡的看法，或者你覺得需求與你現在的業務趨勢有何關係？

Well, yes.

嗯，是。

Yes, I think that when you look at where that business is, I think that we've just come through a -- from cyclical indicators and those types of things.

是的，我認為當您查看該業務所在的位置時，我認為我們剛剛通過週期性指標和那些類型的事情。

You'd even have to go back to 2018 when the industry had reached a cyclical peak, then you throw in and sprinkle on top COVID-19.

你甚至必須回到 2018 年，當時該行業達到了周期性高峰，然後你投入並灑在 COVID-19 上。

And it was really at the beginning of, or the end of last year and the beginning of 2020, that we had begun to see signs of stabilization before COVID had hit.

確實是在去年年初或去年年底和 2020 年初，在 COVID 來襲之前，我們已經開始看到穩定的跡象。

So inventories really weren't a problem at that point in time, and we had said at that point in time that our shipments were beginning to reflect what customers were beginning to ship overall.

所以庫存在那個時間點真的不是問題，我們在那個時間點說過我們的出貨量開始反映客戶開始整體出貨的情況。

So again, I think that what we are shipping today is reflective of what customers are asking us to ship.

因此，我再次認為，我們今天運送的物品反映了客戶要求我們運送的物品。

We have a good availability of product because of the decisions that we've made, and our lead times have remained stable.

由於我們做出的決定，我們的產品可用性很好，而且我們的交貨時間一直保持穩定。

That doesn't mean, of course, that we don't have hot spots that we're working, and we always have hot spots.

當然，這並不意味著我們沒有正在研究的熱點，而且我們總是有熱點。

But that's kind of where we are today.

但這就是我們今天所處的位置。

We'll hear next from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

接下來我們將聽到來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur 的講話。

Congratulations on the strong execution.

祝賀執行力強。

Amidst the strong demand environment, as we all know, foundry capacity is pretty tight, both leading edge and lagging edge.

眾所周知，在強勁的需求環境下，代工產能相當吃緊，既有領先優勢，也有落後優勢。

And I know that TI outsources about 20% of its wafer requirements, most of it with your Embedded products, MPUs, MCUs.

我知道 TI 外包了大約 20% 的晶圓需求，其中大部分與你們的嵌入式產品、MPU、MCU 一起外包。

So because of the foundry tightness, is the team also somewhat constrained on your Embedded products, either Q4 or here in Q1?

因此，由於代工緊張，團隊是否也對您的嵌入式產品有所限制，無論是第四季度還是第一季度？

And also the same thing from an assembly test perspective, where I think about 40% of your assembly and test requirements are outsourced to the subcons?

從裝配測試的角度來看也是同樣的事情，我認為大約 40% 的裝配和測試要求外包給了分包商？

Is this constraining maybe some of your shipments near term?

這是否限制了你們近期的一些出貨量？

At a high level, we have long-term agreements with these suppliers, like we do with other suppliers.

在高層，我們與這些供應商簽訂了長期協議，就像我們與其他供應商一樣。

Even though we only outsource a relatively small part of our loadings, we're still, being a big company there, that's still a good amount of loadings, right?

儘管我們只外包了相對較小的一部分裝載量，但我們仍然是一家大公司，這仍然是一個很好的裝載量，對吧？

So we still get some decent leverage.

所以我們仍然可以獲得一些不錯的槓桿作用。

So we're seeing some hot spots here and there, but to the largest degree, we're getting what we need.

所以我們在這里和那裡看到了一些熱點，但在最大程度上，我們得到了我們需要的東西。

Yes.

是的。

And I would say having 80% of our wafers sourced internally, almost all of our Analog sourced internally, and that is a great advantage for us.

我想說我們 80% 的晶圓都是內部採購的，幾乎所有的模擬都是內部採購的，這對我們來說是一個很大的優勢。

So overall, as we've talked about, that, lead times have remained stable.

總的來說，正如我們所討論的那樣，交貨時間保持穩定。

So that has been a huge advantage for us.

所以這對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢。

Do you have a follow-on, Harlan?

你有後續嗎，哈倫？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

Can you guys just provide us with the shipment trends quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year by geography?

你們能不能按地域向我們提供季度環比、同比的出貨量趨勢？

I know it's shipped to location, but I think it's still useful to kind of understand the breadth of the overall demand profile you guys are seeing.

我知道它已運送到位置，但我認為了解你們所看到的整體需求概況的廣度仍然有用。

Sure.

當然。

So in the quarter, and thank you for the preamble there, so I won't repeat it.

所以在這個季度，感謝你在那裡的序言，所以我不會重複。

But year ago, Asia was up and all of the other regions were either flat or down.

但一年前，亞洲上漲，而所有其他地區要么持平，要么下跌。

And sequentially, all the regions except for the U.S. were up.

隨後，除美國以外的所有地區都上漲了。

And just as another point of color on where we ship our products, 90% of our revenues come from shipments outside of the U.S., and we've got about 20% of our revenues that are based by customers in China.

正如我們運送產品的另一個顏色點，我們 90% 的收入來自美國以外的出貨量，我們有大約 20% 的收入來自中國的客戶。

So just a little bit more color on the comment that you made there earlier.

因此，請在您之前發表的評論中多加一點顏色。

And we'll hear now from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

我們現在將聽到來自瑞銀集團的蒂莫西·阿庫裡的消息。

Rafael, I guess I asked this question last quarter, too, but you, again, bought back next to no stock, and I totally get that you were running ahead of the plan in the first half and you were certainly ahead of 100% for the full year.

拉斐爾，我想我上個季度也問過這個問題，但是你再次幾乎沒有股票回購，我完全明白你在上半年提前完成了計劃而且你肯定提前了 100%整年。

But you also have a pretty strong intrinsic value model for the share repo and you'd be pretty good at buying back the stock.

但是你也有一個非常強大的股票回購內在價值模型，你會非常擅長回購股票。

So I guess maybe I'll ask you again to just sort of comment on that.

所以我想也許我會再次請你對此發表評論。

Is there anything that we can read into that, given that it's the second quarter in a row?

考慮到這是連續第二個季度，我們有什麼可以解讀的嗎？

What I would tell you is that as we talk about during capital management, our goal is to return all free cash flow to the owners of the company.

我要告訴你的是，正如我們在資本管理中所說的那樣，我們的目標是將所有自由現金流返還給公司所有者。

We generated in 2020 $5.5 billion of free cash flow and we generated $6 billion of free cash flow.

我們在 2020 年產生了 55 億美元的自由現金流，我們產生了 60 億美元的自由現金流。

So clearly, well above the cash flow generation.

很明顯，遠遠高於現金流的產生。

Do you have a follow-up?

你有跟進嗎？

And then I guess -- yes, yes, yes, I do.

然後我猜——是的，是的，是的，我知道。

I guess, can you give us an update on the 300-millimeter, the new fab and sort of the timing around that?

我想，您能否向我們介紹一下 300 毫米、新工廠以及相關時間安排的最新情況？

And I guess on that, can you qualify for some of these subsidies coming from the government?

我猜想，您是否有資格獲得政府提供的一些補貼？

Or is that mostly going to be leading edge?

或者這主要是領先優勢？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So the update on the factory is the same as -- nothing has changed as far as our expectation.

所以工廠的更新是一樣的——就我們的預期而言，沒有任何改變。

The new factory is being built.

新工廠正在建設中。

We expect it to be completed in 2022.

我們預計它將於 2022 年完成。

So next year.

那麼明年。

In fact, we should have some level of output in the second half of next year.

事實上，我們明年下半年應該會有一定程度的產出。

So that's all going as per plan.

所以這一切都按計劃進行。

When it's fully equipped, it has the potential for revenue of about $5 billion per year.

當它配備齊全時，它有可能每年帶來約 50 億美元的收入。

On your question on the incentive -- a lot of that remains to be seen.

關於你關於激勵的問題——很多問題還有待觀察。

There are two legislations, one that was approved but was not funded.

有兩項立法，一項獲得批准但未獲得資助。

Another one hasn't been approved.

另一個沒有被批准。

The chips, I think, is the one that hasn't been approved.

我認為，芯片是尚未獲得批准的芯片。

But the one that was approved has not been funded.

但是獲得批准的那個還沒有得到資助。

So -- and there's a lot of uncertainties on that, depending on how that comes out.

所以 - 這有很多不確定性，具體取決於結果如何。

So when that comes out, we'll look at it, and we'll decide if it makes sense for us.

因此，當結果出來時，我們將對其進行研究，然後決定它是否對我們有意義。

But at the biggest or the highest level, we think semiconductor is a foundational technology and anything that the government can do to strengthen that and to keep us at a level playing field -- companies in the United States versus other countries -- that would be a good thing.

但在最大或最高層面上，我們認為半導體是一項基礎技術，政府可以做任何事情來加強這一點並讓我們處於一個公平的競爭環境——美國的公司與其他國家的公司——這將是一件好事。

That will come from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

這將來自 Tore Svanberg with Stifel。

Congratulations on the results.

祝賀結果。

First question for Rafael.

拉斐爾的第一個問題。

I typically wouldn't ask you this because I know you get a lot of these, but the royalty this quarter was pretty material, $162 million.

我通常不會問你這個，因為我知道你得到了很多這樣的東西，但這個季度的版稅非常重要，1.62 億美元。

Can you maybe add any color on that?

你可以在上面添加任何顏色嗎？

And should we expect sizable things like that going forward as well?

我們是否也應該期待類似的大事發生？

Yes.

是的。

So it was about -- inside that $162 million it was more -- most -- of that $162 million.

所以它大約是 - 在這 1.62 億美元中，它更多 - 大部分 - 這 1.62 億美元。

And we recognize it based on accounting rules.

我們根據會計規則對其進行確認。

The cash actually comes in not quite like that.

現金實際上不是那樣的。

It comes in over time.

它會隨著時間的推移而出現。

But it's just -- it's a licensing agreement.

但這只是——這是一份許可協議。

We've had those for many years.

我們已經有很多年了。

They have become de minimis at the highest level, frankly.

坦率地說，他們已經成為最高級別的最低限度。

So I don't expect that to change.

所以我不希望這種情況發生改變。

From a cash standpoint, it's about $100 million a year.

從現金的角度來看，每年約為 1 億美元。

So from the revenue or the income recognition standpoint, sometimes they come in as pops as what you saw, but the cash, which is really what matters, it's more stable than that.

因此，從收入或收入確認的角度來看，有時它們會像你所看到的那樣流行起來，但真正重要的是現金，它比這更穩定。

And again, like I said, it's about $100 million a year.

再一次，就像我說的，每年大約 1 億美元。

I don't expect that to change much.

我預計這不會有太大變化。

You have follow-on, Tore?

你有後續嗎，托爾？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you, Dave.

謝謝你，戴夫。

So I know your long-term goal is to grow CapEx at 6% or -- to spend 6% of your revenues in CapEx.

所以我知道你的長期目標是以 6% 的速度增長資本支出，或者——將 6% 的收入用於資本支出。

I think last year, you said it was 4.5%.

我想去年，你說是 4.5%。

Were there sort of any COVID-related issues that slowed things down?

是否有任何與 COVID 相關的問題拖慢了速度？

And as we look at 2021, do you think it will come in close to that range of sort of 6%?

當我們展望 2021 年時，您認為它會接近 6% 的範圍嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I'll go ahead and take that.

所以我會繼續接受那個。

So yes, our guidance is 6%.

所以是的，我們的指導是 6%。

Our guidance continues to be 6% CapEx as a percent of revenue.

我們的指導仍然是資本支出佔收入的 6%。

That's a long-term guidance, includes everything that goes into CapEx as far as building and equipment.

這是一項長期指導，包括建築和設備等資本支出的所有內容。

Now, of course, that number can fluctuate, right?

現在，當然，這個數字可能會波動，對吧？

Like you pointed out, it just fluctuated down in 2020 to 4.5%.

正如您所指出的，它在 2020 年波動下降至 4.5%。

So I wouldn't be surprised if it's a little higher than 6% for a year or two.

因此，如果它在一兩年內略高於 6%，我不會感到驚訝。

But for your models, I would suggest you stick with 6% out into the future.

但對於你的模型，我建議你堅持 6% 的未來。

It's just -- it's simpler that way, and it gets the point across.

只是 - 這樣更簡單，而且可以理解重點。

That concludes the call.

通話到此結束。

So let me finish with a few comments on key items that we believe deeply.

因此，讓我對我們深信不疑的關鍵項目發表一些評論。

First, we run the company with the mindset of being a long-term owner.

首先，我們以長期所有者的心態經營公司。

We believe that growth of free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value.

我們認為，每股自由現金流的增長是長期價值的主要驅動力。

Our ambitions and values are integral to how we build TI stronger.

我們的抱負和價值觀是我們如何使 TI 變得更強大不可或缺的一部分。

When we're successful in achieving these ambitions, our employees, customers, communities and shareholders all win.

當我們成功實現這些雄心壯誌時，我們的員工、客戶、社區和股東都會受益。

Okay.

好的。

And thank you all for joining us.

感謝大家加入我們。

A replay of this call will be available shortly on our website.

不久將在我們的網站上提供此次通話的重播。

Good evening.

晚上好。

And again, that will conclude today's conference.

再一次，今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you all for joining us.

謝謝大家加入我們。