Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo third quarter 2024 financial results conference call.

    早安,女士們、先生們,歡迎參加盛禧奧 2024 年第三季財務業績電話會議。

  • We welcome the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Van Kessel, Senior Vice President of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations.

    我們歡迎盛禧奧 (Trinseo) 管理團隊總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich; David Stasse,執行副總裁兼財務長;範‧凱塞爾 (Van Kessel),公司財務與投資者關係資深副總裁。

  • Today's conference call will include brief remarks by the management team, followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release along with the presentation slides at close of market Wednesday, November 6.

    今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短講話,然後是問答環節。該公司在 11 月 6 日星期三收盤時發布了新聞稿以及演示幻燈片。

  • These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (Operator instructions). I will now hand over to Van Kessel.

    這些文件發佈在公司的投資者關係網站上,並以向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格形式提供(操作員說明)。現在我將把任務交給範·凱塞爾。

  • Bregje Van Kessel - Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance & Investor Relations

    Bregje Van Kessel - Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance & Investor Relations

  • Thank you, Gavin, and good morning, everyone. Our disclosure rules and cautionary note on forward-looking statements are noted on slide 2.

    謝謝你,加文,大家早安。我們的揭露規則和有關前瞻性陳述的警示說明請參閱投影片 2。

  • During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations.

    在本次演示中,我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述,包括發布指導和描述我們的未來期望。

  • We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, risk factors set forth in Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

    我們必須提醒您,實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。

  • The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measurements. A reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation.

    該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的演示包括某些非公認會計準則財務衡量標準。我們的收益報告和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了這些衡量標準與相應公認會計原則衡量標準的對帳。

  • A replay of this conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's Investor Relations website shortly after the conference call. The replay will be available until November 7, 2025. Now I would like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

    本次電話會議的重播和文字記錄將在電話會議結束後不久存檔在公司的投資者關係網站上。重播將持續至 2025 年 11 月 7 日。現在我想把電話轉給弗蘭克·博齊奇。

  • Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Bee, and welcome to our third quarter 2024 earnings call. Before we get to our Q3 results, I would like to introduce everyone to Bee Van Kessel, who will be moving back into the finance organization with responsibility for Investor Relations, Treasury and Corporate Development.

    謝謝 Bee,歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。在公佈第三季業績之前,我想向大家介紹 Bee Van Kessel,他將回到財務部門,負責投資者關係、財務和企業發展。

  • Bee brings a wealth of company and industry knowledge with her as she most recently served as Senior Vice President, leading the plastic solutions, polystyrene and feedstocks business segments. Prior to that, Bee served as Senior Director of Global Business Finance, where she led the business finance organization for all of Trinseo's reporting segments.

    Bee 帶來了豐富的公司和行業知識,她最近擔任高級副總裁,領導塑膠解決方案、聚苯乙烯和原料業務部門。在此之前,Bee 擔任全球商業財務高級總監,領導盛禧奧所有報告部門的商業財務組織。

  • I want to thank Andy Myers for his many years of leading the Investor Relations group and look forward to continue working with him as he takes on other responsibilities within the finance organization. Andy and Bee will be working closely together over the coming weeks to ensure a smooth transition.

    我要感謝安迪·邁爾斯多年來領導投資者關係團隊,並期待在他承擔財務組織內的其他職責時繼續與他合作。Andy 和 Bee 將在未來幾週內密切合作,以確保順利過渡。

  • Now I'd like to turn to our Q3 results. As expected, market conditions and adjusted EBITDA were similar to the prior quarter. MMA supply dynamics and moderating European input costs continue to support healthier margins in our engineered materials segment.

    現在我想談談我們第三季的結果。如預期,市場狀況和調整後的 EBITDA 與上一季相似。MMA 供應動態和歐洲投入成本的放緩繼續支持我們工程材料領域更健康的利潤率。

  • While demand remained weak in many of our end markets, particularly building and construction and consumer durables, we saw significant year-over-year profitability improvement, largely resulting from our earlier restructuring actions. We also had our second consecutive quarter of sequential improvement in free cash flow, and anticipate this trend will continue as free cash flow is expected to turn positive in Q4.

    儘管我們許多終端市場的需求仍然疲軟,特別是建築施工和耐用消費品,但我們的獲利能力比去年同期顯著改善,這主要歸功於我們早期的重組行動。我們的自由現金流也連續第二季連續改善,並預計這一趨勢將持續下去,因為自由現金流預計將在第四季度轉為正值。

  • Our third quarter results were negatively impacted by unplanned outages at 2 of Americas Styrenics production facilities during the quarter, which pushed adjusted EBITDA to the lower end of our guidance range.

    我們第三季的業績受到美洲苯乙烯兩個生產設施在本季計畫外停運的負面影響,這將調整後的 EBITDA 推至我們指引範圍的下限。

  • While volumes in the quarter decreased 8% year-over-year, this was largely driven by our efforts to shed uneconomic sales in Asia and Europe to optimize plant operations and working capital, particularly in polystyrene. However, excluding polystyrene, volumes were basically flat versus prior year, while product mix improved as volumes increased in several of our higher-margin targeted growth areas.

    雖然本季銷量年減 8%,但這主要是由於我們努力擺脫亞洲和歐洲不經濟的銷售,以優化工廠營運和營運資金,特別是聚苯乙烯。然而,不包括聚苯乙烯,銷量與去年基本持平,而隨著我們幾個利潤率較高的目標成長領域銷量的增加,產品結構有所改善。

  • This includes a 36% increase in compounds for consumer electronics applications in Engineered Materials due to higher demand and new business wins and a 7% volume increase in case and battery applications in latex binders.

    其中包括由於需求增加和新業務贏得,工程材料中用於消費電子應用的化合物增加了 36%,以及乳膠黏合劑中外殼和電池應用的數量增加了 7%。

  • Additionally, sales of recycled content containing products increased 40% in Q3 versus prior year and 57% year-to-date, demonstrating our continued focus and the success we are seeing in making sustainable offerings a larger part of our portfolio.

    此外,第三季含回收成分產品的銷量較上年同期增長了40%,較年初至今增長了57%,這表明我們持續關注並在使可持續產品成為我們產品組合的更大組成部分方面取得了成功。

  • In fact, sales of recycled content-containing products represented 6% of the total company margin in the third quarter. Now I'd like to discuss several of the strategic actions that we took during the quarter.

    事實上,第三季含回收成分產品的銷售額占公司總利潤的 6%。現在我想討論一下我們在本季採取的幾項策略行動。

  • As the macroeconomic landscape remains uncertain and demand weakness has persisted, we continue to take decisive action to improve our footprint and cost structure. At the end of the third quarter, we announced additional restructuring initiatives in order to better position the business for longer-term growth and to reduce our corporate and functional costs to reflect the smaller footprint we currently operate.

    由於宏觀經濟情勢仍然不確定,需求持續疲軟,我們繼續採取果斷行動,改善我們的足跡和成本結構。在第三季末,我們宣布了額外的重組舉措,以便更好地定位業務以實現長期成長,並降低我們的企業和職能成本,以反映我們目前營運規模較小的情況。

  • This included combining the management of our engineered materials, plastic solutions and polystyrene businesses, resulting in workforce reductions from the consolidation of business management roles and support functions.

    這包括將我們的工程材料、塑膠解決方案和聚苯乙烯業務的管理結合起來,透過整合業務管理角色和支援職能來減少勞動力。

  • We believe this will result in a more streamlined organizational structure that will fuel our ability to continue growing in our core markets and in our higher-value offerings. These actions are expected to result in cost savings of approximately $25 million in 2025 and a full run rate savings of $30 million by the end of 2026. We also announced the decision to exit virgin polycarbonate production at our Stade, Germany facility following the discussions with the relevant works councils.

    我們相信,這將帶來更精簡的組織結構,從而增強我們在核心市場和更高價值產品中持續成長的能力。這些行動預計將在 2025 年節省約 2,500 萬美元的成本,到 2026 年底節省 3,000 萬美元的全部營運費用。在與相關工作委員會討論後,我們也宣布決定退出德國施塔德工廠的原始聚碳酸酯生產。

  • Once operations have concluded, we will purchase all of our polycarbonate needs for our downstream differentiated products from external suppliers. As we previously stated, this is expected to increase annual profitability by $15 million to $20 million in comparison to producing virgin polycarbonate.

    一旦營運結束,我們將從外部供應商購買下游差異化產品所需的所有聚碳酸酯。正如我們之前所說,與生產原始聚碳酸酯相比,預計每年獲利能力將增加 1500 萬至 2000 萬美元。

  • We remain committed to developing and investing in our polycarbonate dissolution technology, which will replace a portion of our external polycarbonate purchases with our own recycled polycarbonate as that technology continues to grow to commercial scale.

    我們仍然致力於開發和投資我們的聚碳酸酯溶解技術,隨著該技術繼續發展到商業規模,該技術將用我們自己的回收聚碳酸酯取代我們的部分外部聚碳酸酯採購。

  • Now Dav will discuss our third quarter results.

    現在戴夫將討論我們第三季的業績。

  • David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thanks, Frank. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $66 million was $25 million higher than prior year and similar to the second quarter. Year-over-year results improved across all business segments, except for Americas Styrenics, which had unplanned outages at two facilities, leading to a $10 million negative impact on equity affiliate income during the quarter.

    謝謝,弗蘭克。第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,600 萬美元,比去年同期高出 2,500 萬美元,與第二季持平。所有業務部門的年比業績均有所改善,但美洲苯乙烯公司除外,該公司的兩個工廠出現計劃外停電,導致本季度股權附屬公司收入遭受 1,000 萬美元的負面影響。

  • Cash provided by operations during the quarter was $9 million, which resulted in free cash flow of negative $3 million. This included a $14 million decrease in trade working capital. We expect free cash flow to turn positive and be significantly higher in the fourth quarter due to typical seasonal working capital improvements.

    本季營運提供的現金為 900 萬美元,導致自由現金流為負 300 萬美元。其中包括貿易營運資金減少 1,400 萬美元。由於典型的季節性營運資本改善,我們預計第四季度自由現金流將轉正並顯著更高。

  • We ended the third quarter with $165 million of cash and $342 million of total liquidity, including our two committed financing facilities. Cash preservation and liquidity management continues to be our top priority. Now I'll turn the call back over to Frank.

    截至第三季末,我們擁有 1.65 億美元的現金和 3.42 億美元的總流動資金,其中包括我們承諾的兩項融資安排。現金保存和流動性管理仍然是我們的首要任務。現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

  • Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Thanks, Dave. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, we expect seasonally slower market demand to result in sequentially lower adjusted EBITDA. While October volumes are in line with our average for the year, we anticipate a more pronounced year-end seasonality compared to the typical year.

    謝謝,戴夫。展望第四季度,我們預計市場需求季節性放緩將導致調整後 EBITDA 環比下降。雖然 10 月的銷量與我們全年的平均水平一致,但我們預計年底的季節性因素將比往年更加明顯。

  • However, we expect higher profitability in Q4 compared to prior year due to the benefits of our restructuring initiatives as well as the full quarter of operations at Americas Styrenics. As a result, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to $50 million.

    然而,由於我們的重組舉措以及美洲苯乙烯公司整個季度的營運帶來的好處,我們預計第四季度的獲利能力將高於去年同期。因此,我們預計第四季度調整後 EBITDA 為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

  • We are pleased how the third quarter evolved in line with our expectations and understand that the fourth quarter will be more challenging due to the year-end seasonality and continued macroeconomic uncertainty.

    我們很高興第三季的發展符合我們的預期,並理解由於年底的季節性因素和持續的宏觀經濟不確定性,第四季度將更具挑戰性。

  • However, seasonal working capital improvements should result in a stronger liquidity position at the end of the year despite the lower sequential profitability.

    然而,儘管連續獲利能力較低,但季節性營運資本改善應會導致年底流動性狀況增強。

  • I want to thank our employees around the world for their continued focus and dedication to Trinseo as we continue to drive productivity and innovation in our core technologies. And now we're happy to take your questions.

    我要感謝我們世界各地的員工在我們不斷提高核心技術的生產力和創新的過程中對盛禧奧的持續關注和奉獻。現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

    (操作員說明)Frank Mitsch,費米研究公司。

  • Frank J Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank J Mitsch - Analyst

  • That's about as far as I'm going to take that. Frank, can you just give us an update on the AmSty sales process? And Dave, I appreciate that $10 million negative headwind for 3Q. Is that all -- is the unplanned outages, is that all behind us and a smooth sailing in 4Q there?

    我的看法就到此為止了。Frank,您能為我們介紹一下 AmSty 銷售流程的最新情況嗎?戴夫,我很欣賞第三季 1000 萬美元的負面阻力。這就是全部 - 是意外中斷嗎?

  • Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • So maybe I'll just answer both of those. So the simple -- the answer to the second question is, yes, that's behind us. The restarted both of those units, and we expect to see a contribution -- full contribution from AmSty in Q4.

    所以也許我只會回答這兩個問題。所以很簡單——第二個問題的答案是,是的,這已經在我們後面了。這兩個部門都已重新啟動,我們預計將在第四季度看到 AmSty 的全部貢獻。

  • The status of the process is -- look, we've said this before, we have a joint agreement with CPChem to jointly market the asset. We began our process in Q3, and we continue to expect that we would sign a transaction in the first half of next year.

    該流程的狀態是——看,我們之前已經說過,我們與 CPChem 簽訂了聯合協議,共同行銷該資產。我們在第三季開始了我們的流程,我們仍然預計我們將在明年上半年簽署交易。

  • Frank J Mitsch - Analyst

    Frank J Mitsch - Analyst

  • Terrific. And then I guess on financing, is there any update on the timing and process regarding the extension of the May 26 revolver? And as it stands now, is the plan to utilize that revolver to repay the sub notes?

    了不起。然後我想在融資方面,關於 5 月 26 日左輪手槍延期的時間和流程是否有任何更新?那麼現在的情況是,打算用那把左輪手槍來償還次級票據嗎?

  • David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So Frank, look, yeah, so we have -- the stub notes is $115 million, just for clarity, $115 million due in September of next year. The plan would be either to use cash on hand or a refinancing transaction to handle that. We are continuing to look at both, and we'll announce something when we have something more concrete to say publicly about it.

    弗蘭克,是的,所以我們有——為了清楚起見,存根票據是 1.15 億美元,其中 1.15 億美元將於明年 9 月到期。該計劃將是使用手頭現金或再融資交易來處理這個問題。我們正在繼續關注這兩個問題,當我們有更具體的資訊要公開時,我們會宣布一些事情。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Matthew Blair, TPH.

    馬修·布萊爾,TPH。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Just regarding the Q4 guide. So it seems like there'll be some tailwinds from AmSty getting back up, call it, approximately $10 million. And then you mentioned the seasonality that you're expecting in the more differentiated parts of the business. But could you provide just a little bit more explanation and color around that?

    只是關於第四季指南。因此,AmSty 的復甦似乎會帶來一些順風車,稱之為大約 1000 萬美元。然後您提到了您期望業務中更具差異化部分的季節性。但你能提供更多的解釋和顏色嗎?

  • I mean, I guess that would imply some pretty severe drop-offs in Plastic Solutions and Engineered Materials, potentially latex binders as well. So is this just seasonality? Is this just being conservative? Are there any other factors like raw materials or net timing that you're also anticipating would be headwinds in the fourth quarter?

    我的意思是,我猜這意味著塑膠解決方案和工程材料(可能還有乳膠黏合劑)的數量大幅下降。那麼這只是季節性嗎?這只是保守嗎?您還預計原材料或淨時間等其他因素會在第四季度產生不利影響嗎?

  • David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So look, yeah, I'll help you with the bridge on that. So at the midpoint of our guide, $45 million, we're down, let's call it, $20 million quarter-over-quarter.And you're right, and plus $10 million of AmSty. So what we're bridging is $30 million -- about half of that bridge is explained by fixed cost absorption related to running the plants.

    所以聽著,是的,我會幫你架起橋樑。因此,在我們指南的中點,即 4500 萬美元,我們季度環比下降了 2000 萬美元。因此,我們要橋接的是 3000 萬美元——大約一半的橋接費用是由與營運工廠相關的固定成本吸收來解釋的。

  • Like Frank said, we do expect a more pronounced shutdown season this year at a lot of our customers and will operate similarly. So we will have a fairly significant inventory drain in the third quarter, whereas we had a buildup in -- excuse me, a drain in the fourth quarter, whereas we had a build in the third quarter, building up, preparing for the shutdown.

    正如弗蘭克所說,我們確實預計今年許多客戶將出現更明顯的停產季節,並將採取類似的營運方式。因此,我們在第三季度將有相當大的庫存消耗,而我們在第四季度有庫存積累,對不起,在第四季度有庫存消耗,而我們在第三季度有庫存積累,正在積累,為停工做準備。

  • So about half of that $30 million bridge is explained by that, just fixed cost absorption. And the rest is volume and margin really across all of the businesses. We do expect demand to be lighter just due to seasonality. I think that's been a consistent theme during this earnings season. So we will see that as well.

    因此,大約有一半的 3000 萬美元橋樑是用固定成本吸收來解釋的。剩下的就是所有業務的銷售和利潤。我們確實預計,由於季節性因素,需求將會減少。我認為這是本財報季的一貫主題。所以我們也會看到這一點。

  • I do think, Matthew, we would expect negative timing in the quarter, standing here today, I don't know, $5 million or so just due to styrene prices going down, but that should help with the bridge.

    我確實認為,馬修,我們預計本季會出現負面時機,今天站在這裡,我不知道,由於苯乙烯價格下跌,大約會產生 500 萬美元左右,但這應該有助於緩解這個問題。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • That does help. Thank you. And then thinking about some of the moving parts on the 2025 free cash flow outlook, your 2024 guidance includes a $45 million restructuring cost. Do you have a sense of what restructuring would look like in 2025? And aside from just EBITDA, are there any other discrete moving parts we should be thinking about with 2025 free cash flow?

    這確實有幫助。謝謝。然後考慮 2025 年自由現金流前景的一些變化因素,您的 2024 年指引包括 4,500 萬美元的重組成本。您是否了解 2025 年的重組會是什麼樣子?除了 EBITDA 之外,我們還應該考慮 2025 年自由現金流的其他離散活動部分嗎?

  • David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yeah. So Matthew, I'd refer you to slide 11 in our charts where we list out all the pieces for our free cash flow for 2024. And you're right, our cash -- we expect to spend $45 million this year on restructuring. I expect that to be a similar number next year.

    是的。馬修,我建議您查看圖表中的幻燈片 11,其中我們列出了 2024 年自由現金流的所有內容。你是對的,我們的現金——我們預計今年將花費 4500 萬美元進行重組。我預計明年的數字將與此類似。

  • Obviously, the spend related to the shutdown of the styrene plants is tailing off, but we do have -- we have the shutdown from the Sty facility as well as the corporate actions that we took that will kick in. So I expect restructuring to be similar in '25 and then drop off materially in '26. But all of the other pieces on this bridge, I would expect to be materially the same in '25 versus '26. So CapEx, cash taxes, turnaround, et cetera.

    顯然,與關閉苯乙烯工廠相關的支出正在減少,但我們確實有——我們關閉了苯乙烯工廠,以及我們採取的企業行動將開始生效。因此,我預計 25 年的重組將會類似,然後在 26 年大幅下降。但是這座橋上的所有其他部分,我預計 25 年與 26 年在實質上是相同的。所以資本支出、現金稅、週轉等等。

  • And if you add all those up, it's $340 million, right? So the cash outflows, if you will, for this year is $340 million. So we would need $340 million of EBITDA to be cash flow breakeven.

    如果把所有這些加起來,就是 3.4 億美元,對嗎?因此,如果你願意的話,今年的現金流出為 3.4 億美元。因此,我們需要 3.4 億美元的 EBITDA 才能達到現金流量收支平衡。

  • Now the one line item that I think is worth mentioning is cash interest. We have $200 million this year. Clearly, we're in an easing cycle now. We'll see later this afternoon what happens with the Fed. But as I said on our call -- last call, I think we have $1.8 billion of floating rate debt. So every 100 basis points reduction reduces our cash interest by $18 million.

    現在我認為值得一提的一個項目是現金利息。今年我們有2億美元。顯然,我們現在正處於寬鬆週期。我們將在今天下午晚些時候看看美聯儲會發生什麼。但正如我在上次電話會議上所說,我認為我們有 18 億美元的浮動利率債務。因此,每降低 100 個基點,我們的現金利息就會減少 1,800 萬美元。

  • So I would expect the $200 million of cash interest to be lower next year, depending on the pace of Fed cuts.

    因此,我預計明年 2 億美元的現金利息將會降低,這取決於聯準會降息的步伐。

  • Matthew Blair - Analyst

    Matthew Blair - Analyst

  • Great.

    偉大的。

  • David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    David Stasse - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • So I think to sum all that up, Matthew, I mean, that puts our I think our cash flow breakeven drops to more like a low 300s type number for 2025.

    所以我認為總結一下,馬修,我的意思是,這使得我們的現金流盈虧平衡點在 2025 年下降到更像是 300 多美元的低水平。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Laurence Alexander, Jefferies LLC.

    勞倫斯·亞歷山大,傑富瑞有限責任公司。

  • Lawrence Alexander - Analyst

    Lawrence Alexander - Analyst

  • Can you give some sense on what your customers are saying about once we get through the kind of year-end seasonal adjustments, how much pent-up demand they're seeing for the first half of next year? Any innovation cycles that would be pulling products forward? Can you just give a sense for kind of how we should think about the demand side for the bridge for next year?

    一旦我們完成了年底的季節性調整,您能否解釋一下您的客戶的看法,他們在明年上半年看到了多少被壓抑的需求?有哪些創新周期可以推動產品向前發展?您能否介紹一下我們應該如何考慮明年橋樑的需求面?

  • Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Yeah, Laurence, the -- as I've been at customers as recently as Monday, what I'm hearing is that they see that Q4 is sort of a declining raw material environment. And so there -- I think in general, most of our customers are not building inventory waiting for Q1. I think there was also some uncertainty about the regulatory environment and the election results more broadly even across the world.

    是的,勞倫斯,正如我最近在周一拜訪客戶時所聽到的那樣,他們認為第四季度的原材料環境正在下降。因此,我認為總的來說,我們的大多數客戶都不會在等待第一季建立庫存。我認為,即使在全世界範圍內,監管環境和選舉結果也存在一些不確定性。

  • And so the tone I'm hearing from most of our customers is that they expect Q1 to be stronger and that they expect to see modest improvement in their outlooks. And they -- and again, for us, as you know, building and construction is a big part of our portfolio. Their anticipation is that easing interest rates will stimulate pent-up demand in building and construction. So I would say modestly positive for Q1 is the outlook.

    因此,我從大多數客戶那裡聽到的語氣是,他們期望第一季會更強勁,並且他們期望看到自己的前景略有改善。他們——再說一次,對我們來說,如你所知,建築和施工是我們投資組合的重要組成部分。他們的預期是,利率的放鬆將刺激被壓抑的建築需求。所以我想說第一季的前景是適度樂觀的。

  • Lawrence Alexander - Analyst

    Lawrence Alexander - Analyst

  • Thank you.

    謝謝。

  • Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

    Frank Bozich - President, Chief Executive Officer, Director

  • Maybe let me build on that just a bit because I think not only -- if I think about next year, while we're not giving guidance at the current time, we anticipate that there are three factors that will give us support for next year as we head into 2025.

    也許讓我在此基礎上再進一步,因為我認為,如果我考慮明年,雖然我們目前沒有提供指導,但我們預計有三個因素將為我們明年提供支持當我們邁入 2025 年時。

  • Those are the restructuring initiatives, known business wins that we have today that we've achieved during 2024 and will achieve in 2025 that will fully accrue plus the full year benefits from AmSty. So those collectively are the things that are factoring into improvement for next year.

    這些是我們今天在 2024 年實現並將在 2025 年實現的重組舉措和已知的業務勝利,加上 AmSty 的全年效益。因此,這些都是明年改進的因素。

  • And we would expect that certainly the adjusted EBITDA for next year would have a three in front of it, be a $300 million-plus.

    我們預計,明年調整後的 EBITDA 前面肯定會有一個 3,即 3 億美元以上。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions. I would like to thank the Trinseo management team and you all for joining. That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect.

    沒有其他問題了。我要感謝盛禧奧管理團隊和大家的加入。我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連結了。