Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo first quarter 2024 financial results conference call. We well the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Andy Myers, Director of Investor Relations.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加盛禧奧 2024 年第一季財務業績電話會議。我們還有盛禧奧 (Trinseo) 管理團隊、總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich； David Stasse，執行副總裁兼財務長；和投資者關係總監安迪‧邁爾斯 (Andy Myers)。

Today's conference call will include brief remarks by the management followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release along with the presentation slides at close of market Wednesday May 8. These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand the call over to Andy Myers.

今天的電話會議將包括管理層的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。該公司在 5 月 8 日星期三收盤時發布了新聞稿以及演示幻燈片。這些文件發佈在公司的投資者關係網站上，並以向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格形式提供。（操作員指示）我現在將呼叫轉交給安迪·邁爾斯。

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. After our brief remarks, instructions will follow to participate in the question-and-answer session. Our disclosure rules and cautionary note on forward-looking statements are noted on slide 2. During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations.

謝謝你，羅布，大家早安。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。在我們簡短發言後，將按照指示參加問答環節。我們的揭露規則和有關前瞻性陳述的警示說明請參閱投影片 2。在本次演示中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導和描述我們的未來期望。

We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include but are not limited to risk factors set forth in Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。

The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP measurements. For reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation. Our replay of the conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's investor relations website shortly following the conference call. The replay will be available until May 8, 2025.

該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的演示包括某些非 GAAP 衡量標準。我們的收益報告和投資者簡報的附錄中提供了這些衡量標準與相應公認會計原則衡量標準的對照表。我們對電話會議的重播和文字記錄將在電話會議結束後不久存檔在公司的投資者關係網站上。重播將持續到 2025 年 5 月 8 日。

Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Frank Bozich。

Thanks, Andy, and welcome to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. Let me begin by saying how encouraged I am with how the first quarter progressed and how the second quarter has begun as profitability improves steadily over that period.

謝謝安迪，歡迎參加我們的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。首先我要說的是，隨著第一季的進展以及第二季的開始，獲利能力在此期間穩步提高，我感到多麼鼓舞。

The initial strength in volumes that we saw in January and February continued through March, resulting in our first year-over-year volume increase in two years and our highest volume quarter since Q3 2022. Additionally, we believe destocking in some of our value chains has ended.

我們在 1 月和 2 月看到的最初銷量強勁勢頭一直持續到 3 月，導致我們兩年來首次實現銷量同比增長，並創下自 2022 年第三季度以來最高的季度銷量。此外，我們認為我們的一些價值鏈的去庫存已經結束。

Market tightness resulting in significant margin expansion in Engineered Materials and Americas Styrenics as the quarter progressed, resulting in over half of our quarterly adjusted EBITDA coming in the month of March. We see this higher profitability continuing into Q2.

隨著本季的進展，市場緊張導致工程材料和美洲苯乙烯的利潤大幅增長，導致我們的季度調整後 EBITDA 的一半以上出現在 3 月。我們認為這種較高的獲利能力將持續到第二季​​。

The higher profitability that we saw in March was from several factors. We saw margin expansion in MMA as a result of supply tightness that drove March MMA prices significantly higher in Europe, while costs have moderated. Weakness in the proxy, nylon and polycarbonate value chains in Asia led to reduced by-product feedstock availability for MMA producers in that region.

我們在三月看到的更高的獲利能力來自多個因素。由於供應緊張，我們看到 MMA 的利潤率有所擴大，導致歐洲 3 月 MMA 價格大幅上漲，而成本有所下降。亞洲代理商、尼龍和聚碳酸酯價值鏈的疲軟導致該地區 MMA 生產商的副產品原料供應量減少。

This dynamic, along with ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea, resulted in lower quantities of MMA shipped into Europe from Asia during the quarter, and we're seeing this continue into the second quarter. We are also seeing demand for architectural coatings and various polymer additives beginning to pick up following a period of prolonged destocking, which is further tightening the MMA market in Europe and is supportive of continued higher margins in this segment.

這種動態加上紅海持續的地緣政治緊張局勢，導致本季從亞洲運往歐洲的 MMA 數量減少，我們預計這種情況將持續到第二季​​。我們也看到，經過一段時間的長期去庫存之後，對建築塗料和各種聚合物添加劑的需求開始回升，這進一步收緊了歐洲 MMA 市場，並支持該領域的利潤率持續走高。

In North America, low acetone availability led to MMA and downstream of PMMA supply tightness resulting in higher integrated margins in the region.

在北美，丙酮供應量較低導致MMA和下游PMMA供應緊張，導致該地區綜合利潤率較高。

Additionally, Americas Styrenics had a major turnaround at its large styrene facility in January, February and returned to production in March. [Styrenic] supply tightness due to several industry outages, combined with low inventory levels led to significantly higher styrene prices and margin expansion of the AmSty and we're seeing this continue into the second quarter.

此外，Americas Styrenics 的大型苯乙烯工廠於 1 月和 2 月實現了重大轉變，並於 3 月恢復生產。由於幾次行業停電導致[苯乙烯]供應緊張，加上庫存水準較低，導致苯乙烯價格大幅上漲，AmSty 的利潤率擴大，我們預計這種情況將持續到第二季​​度。

While we're happy to see the improved earnings profile, increasing styrene and MMA prices exacerbated the typical first quarter seasonal working capital build and rising spot styrene prices negatively impacted polystyrene, ABS and Latex Binders margins by way of higher input costs.

雖然我們很高興看到盈利狀況有所改善，但苯乙烯和MMA 價格的上漲加劇了第一季典型的季節性營運資金建設，而苯乙烯現貨價格的上漲則透過更高的投入成本對聚苯乙烯、ABS 和乳膠黏合劑的利潤率產生了負面影響。

I'd like to shift gears for a few minutes to discuss several actions that we took during the quarter to continue advancing our transformation strategy and optimizing our business. In March, we announced the commencement of the sale process for our interest in Americas Styrenics via the initiation of an ownership exit provision in the joint venture agreement.

我想花幾分鐘討論我們在本季為繼續推動轉型策略和優化業務而採取的幾項行動。今年 3 月，我們宣布透過合資協議中的所有權退出條款，開始出售我們在 Americas Styrenics 的權益。

This process provides us with a clear pathway to divest our interest in AmSty, and we expect it to lead to a definitive agreement no later than early 2025. The proceeds will be used to pay down our highest cost debt, helping to lower our annual interest burden, which will be beneficial to future cash flows.

這個過程為我們提供了一條明確的途徑來剝離我們在 AmSty 的權益，我們預計最遲將在 2025 年初達成最終協議。所得款項將用於償還我們成本最高的債務，有助於降低我們的年度利息負擔，這將有利於未來的現金流。

Also in March, we announced that we engaged local works councils in Germany regarding the potential closure of the remaining virgin polycarbonate production line at our Stade Germany facility. While decisions like these are never easy, continued soft demand and price declines due to oversupply, along with significant fixed operating costs and data have strained the financial viability of the site.

同樣在 3 月，我們宣布與德國當地工作委員會就可能關閉德國施塔德工廠剩餘的原始聚碳酸酯生產線進行接觸。雖然做出這樣的決定絕非易事，但由於供應過剩導致需求持續疲軟和價格下跌，加上大量的固定營運成本和數據，使網站的財務生存能力變得緊張。

We do not expect these challenging conditions to abate anytime soon as capacity in Asia continue to drive down price and make operating this chemistry in Europe more difficult. If approved, we will no longer produce virgin polycarbonate and will obtain all of our polycarbonate needs for our downstream businesses, the external purchases and recycling.

我們預計這些具有挑戰性的條件不會很快緩解，因為亞洲的產能繼續壓低價格，並使這種化學品在歐洲的運作變得更加困難。如果獲得批准，我們將不再生產原始聚碳酸酯，並將獲得下游業務、外部採購和回收的所有聚碳酸酯需求。

While difficult, this decision is in line with our continued focus on continuous network evaluation and optimization, and we expect it will increase annual profitability by $15 million to $20 million compared to our 2023 results.

雖然這項決定很困難，但符合我們對持續網路評估和優化的持續關注，我們預計與 2023 年的業績相比，年度獲利能力將增加 1,500 萬至 2,000 萬美元。

I also wanted to be clear that any decision to close the virgin polycarbonate production site and Stade, will not impact our commitment to advancing our polycarbonate solution and technology that we discussed at length in our third quarter 2023 earnings call.

我還想澄清的是，關閉原始聚碳酸酯生產基地和施塔德的任何決定都不會影響我們在 2023 年第三季財報電話會議中詳細討論的推進聚碳酸酯解決方案和技術的承諾。

Whilst Stade was previously mentioned as a potential location for this technology up to commercial scale, we are now exploring numerous alternative locations that could host our recycling assets. We remain committed to the integration and application of modern recycling technologies to help customers develop more sustainable product offerings, and this potential closure does not change that commitment.

雖然之前曾提到施塔德是這項技術達到商業規模的潛在地點，但我們現在正在探索許多可以託管我們的回收資產的替代地點。我們仍然致力於現代回收技術的整合和應用，以幫助客戶開發更永續的產品，而這種潛在的關閉不會改變這項承諾。

We continue to see excellent demand for our products that contain recycled material with a record amount sold in the first quarter, which represents a 65% increase over the prior year. In addition to our focus on products containing recycled material, we continue to work on other sustainably advantaged product offerings.

我們繼續看到對含有回收材料的產品的巨大需求，第一季的銷售量創歷史新高，比前一年增長了 65%。除了專注於含有回收材料的產品外，我們還繼續致力於提供其他具有永續優勢的產品。

We recently introduced flame retardant polycarbonate and PCABS compounds that are manufactured without the use of PFAS and will primarily be used in consumer electronics applications. PFAS chemicals, which have faced growing regulatory and consumer pressure to be reduced are commonly used for the flame-retardant properties as well as the resistance to heat, oil, grease and water.

我們最近推出了阻燃聚碳酸酯和 PCABS 化合物，這些化合物在製造時不使用 PFAS，主要用於消費性電子應用。PFAS 化學品面臨越來越大的監管和消費者要求減少使用的壓力，它們通常用於阻燃性能以及耐熱、耐油、耐油脂和耐水性能。

These new products, maintain those critical performance attributes and use post-consumer recycled substrates, but replaced PFAS with the other flame-retardant chemicals. Now we'd like to turn the call over to Dave to discuss our first quarter results.

這些新產品保留了這些關鍵性能屬性，並使用消費後回收的基材，但用其他阻燃化學品取代了 PFAS。現在我們想將電話轉給戴夫，討論我們第一季的業績。

Thank you, Frank. Before I get into the first quarter results, I'd like to call your attention to a change in our segment reporting structure that became effective at the beginning of this year. As we previously discussed, following the closure of our polystyrene production facility in Terneuzen, we no longer produce styrene and therefore, no longer have a feedstocks reporting segments.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。在介紹第一季業績之前，我想提請您注意我們的分部報告結構的變化，該變化於今年年初生效。正如我們之前所討論的，在泰爾訥曾的聚苯乙烯生產設施關閉後，我們不再生產苯乙烯，因此不再有原料報告部門。

As a result, we have recast the 2022 and 2023 net sales and adjusted EBITDA of the feedstocks segment into the downstream segments that consume styrene, which are Latex Binders, plastic solutions and polystyrene. We have included segment results with and without this recast in the earnings presentation appendix.

因此，我們重新計算了 2022 年和 2023 年的淨銷售額，並將原料部門的 EBITDA 調整為消耗苯乙烯的下游部門，即乳膠黏合劑、塑膠溶液和聚苯乙烯。我們已在收益報告附錄中納入了經過和未經此重修的分部表現。

Turning back to the results, first quarter adjusted EBITDA of $45 million was in line with our previous guidance; but included $13 million of favorable net timing from rising styrene prices. European starch spot styrene price increased by about 60% in the first quarter due to planned and unplanned industry outages.

回到結果，第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 4,500 萬美元，與我們先前的指引一致；但其中包括苯乙烯價格上漲帶來的 1300 萬美元的有利淨時機。由於計畫內和計畫外的產業停電，歐洲澱粉現貨苯乙烯價格第一季上漲約60%。

In this environment, we generally will have favorable net timing and a working capital build. Conversely, when styrene declines, as we expect in late Q2 into Q3, we generally will have unfavorable net timing and a working capital release. Throughout this period, however, our underlying EBITDA ex timing is generally unchanged as Americas Styrenics benefits in periods of styrene tightness and our polystyrene plastic solutions and Latex Binders segment have a roughly equal and opposite effect as they are net buyers of styrene.

在這種環境下，我們通常會有有利的淨時機和營運資金建設。相反，當苯乙烯價格下跌時，正如我們預期的第二季末到第三季度，我們通常會遇到不利的淨時間和營運資金釋放。然而，在此期間，我們的基本EBITDA 除稅時間總體上沒有變化，因為美洲苯乙烯在苯乙烯緊張時期受益，而我們的聚苯乙烯塑膠解決方案和乳膠黏合劑部門具有大致相同和相反的效果，因為它們是苯乙烯的淨買家。

Cash used in operations during the quarter was $66 million, which resulted in free cash flow of negative $82 million. This included a $61 million increase in trade working capital. Historically, the first quarter of the year includes a working capital build due to seasonal factors. However, this year's build was amplified because of the significant increase in styrene prices that I just spoke about.

本季營運使用的現金為 6,600 萬美元，導致自由現金流為負 8,200 萬美元。其中包括增加 6,100 萬美元的貿易營運資金。從歷史上看，每年第一季都會因季節性因素而增加營運資金。然而，由於我剛才談到的苯乙烯價格大幅上漲，今年的成長被放大。

We expect Q1 to be the lowest free cash flow quarter of the year as our earnings improve and as our working capital normalizes from lower feedstock prices. We ended the quarter with $171 million of cash and $423 million of liquidity, including our undrawn bank facilities.

我們預計，隨著我們的獲利改善以及我們的營運資本因原料價格下降而正常化，第一季將成為今年自由現金流最低的季度。本季末，我們擁有 1.71 億美元現金和 4.23 億美元流動資金，包括未提取的銀行融資。

We enhanced our overall liquidity by extending the maturity of our [debt] on our accounts receivable securitization facility by one year to November 2025, and by including new subsidiaries in the facility that helped increase the available borrowing capacity by $36 million quarter over quarter.

我們透過將應收帳款證券化工具的[債務]期限延長一年至2025 年11 月，並透過在該工具中納入新的子公司，幫助提高了我們的整體流動性，這有助於使可用借款能力比上一季增加3,600 萬美元。

Additionally, we are taking other actions such as proactively moderating lower margin sales to conserve working capital with only a nominal impact on earnings. Liquidity preservation is and will continue to be our top priority as we navigate this cycle downturn. Now I'll hand the call back over to Frank.

此外，我們正在採取其他行動，例如主動降低利潤率較低的銷售，以節省營運資金，而對收益的影響僅很小。在我們度過這週期的低迷時期，保持流動性現在是、將來也將繼續是我們的首要任務。現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Dave. I'm happy to report that we're seeing the positive earnings momentum from the end of the first quarter, continuing the second quarter. Tightness in the styrene and MMA markets for the continuation of the higher margins that we experienced in the latter part of Q1. This combined with amortized return to normal styrene operation and seasonal increases in high margin building and construction and consumer electronic sales give us confidence in a meaningful sequential profitability improvement in the second quarter.

謝謝，戴夫。我很高興地向大家報告，我們看到第一季末以來的積極獲利動能一直持續到第二季​​。苯乙烯和 MMA 市場的緊張使得我們在第一季下半年經歷了較高的利潤率的延續。再加上苯乙烯業務的攤銷恢復以及高利潤建築和消費電子產品銷售的季節性增長，使我們對第二季度盈利能力連續大幅改善充滿信心。

As a result, we expect Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $60 million to $75 million, including of approximately $5 million to $10 million of negative timing. Consistent with the outlook we provided last quarter, we still expect Q1 profitability to be the low point of the year. Our base assumption is that demand remains constrained throughout 2024, but EBITDA will be stronger due to tighter markets from destock supply chains and the restructuring actions that we've taken.

因此，我們預計第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 6,000 萬至 7,500 萬美元，其中包括約 500 萬至 1,000 萬美元的負時序。與我們上季度提供的前景一致，我們仍然預計第一季獲利能力將是今年的最低點。我們的基本假設是，整個 2024 年需求仍然受到限制，但由於供應鏈去庫存和我們採取的重組行動導致市場趨緊，EBITDA 將更加強勁。

While our first quarter results and our second quarter outlook are certainly promising, we remain in one of the most challenging times for the chemical industry in several decades. I'm confident that the cost actions we have taken combined with our focus on prioritizing liquidity while improving our sustainable and differentiated materials capabilities will have us well positioned to rise out of this cycle when demand returns to more normal levels.

儘管我們第一季的業績和第二季的前景無疑是充滿希望的，但我們仍然處於化學行業幾十年來最具挑戰性的時期之一。我相信，我們採取的成本行動，加上我們對流動性優先的關注，同時提高我們的可持續和差異化材料能力，將使我們能夠在需求恢復到更正常水平時擺脫這個週期。

And now we're happy to take your questions.

現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）David Begleiter，德意志銀行。

Thank you. Good morning. Frank, nice come back or recovering engineered materials. If you look to Q2 with strength continuing, how you're thinking about, EBITDA and earnings potential in engineered materials in Q2 here?

謝謝。早安.弗蘭克，很高興回來或回收工程材料。如果您展望第二季的強勁勢頭，您如何看待第二季工程材料的 EBITDA 和獲利潛力？

Yeah, so we would expect EM, engineered materials, to be up above $20 million EBITDA in Q2. It is just that run rate in March and April, and we don't see that dynamic continuing or changing in any way. These are the things that we're really acutely watching from a market standpoint. We're watching what's happening in the polycarbonate epoxy and nylon value chains in Asia because as those value chains being depressed really constrains the byproduct feedstock that go into MMA in that region. And then we're also watching the Red Sea.

是的，所以我們預計 EM（工程材料）第二季的 EBITDA 將超過 2000 萬美元。這只是三月和四月的運行率，我們沒有看到這種動態持續或以任何方式發生變化。這些是我們從市場角度真正密切關注的事情。我們正在關注亞洲聚碳酸酯環氧樹脂和尼龍價值鏈的情況，因為這些價值鏈的低迷確實限制了該地區進入 MMA 的副產品原料。然後我們還觀看紅海。

So there are certain dynamics that are out of our control that are influencing the current short net tightness in North America and Europe. But we don't see any signs right now that would change that dynamic. But the other thing I'm happy to say is that the volume improvement we're seeing in MMA is really cuts across all of the segments. MMA volumes are certainly up, but we're also seeing good volume improvement and our good order book in both the Terneuzen, our surfaces business as well as rigid compounds that go into consumer electronics as we enter Q2.

因此，某些我們無法控制的動態正在影響北美和歐洲目前的空頭淨緊縮狀況。但我們目前沒有看到任何跡象會改變這種動態。但我很高興地說的另一件事是，我們在 MMA 中看到的銷量改善確實涉及所有細分市場。MMA 銷量肯定有所上升，但進入第二季度後，我們在泰爾訥曾、我們的表面業務以及進入消費電子產品的剛性化合物方面也看到了良好的銷量增長和良好的訂單。

Very good. And given that the strong level of earnings in Q2, can you actually grow earnings from that level in the back half of the year, i.e., $20 million per quarter or higher?

非常好。考慮到第二季度的強勁盈利水平，您實際上能否在今年下半年將盈利水平從該水平基礎上增長，即每季度 2000 萬美元或更高？

Well, it all really depends on the underlying market demand. Right now, we don't anticipate a significant change in market demand. We're winning. We're winning some new awards, but in our outlook in the back half of the year really depends on how the markets develop. So difficult to say at this point. And that's why we've neglected to give full year guidance because it's just difficult to say how the markets will develop.

嗯，這實際上取決於潛在的市場需求。目前，我們預期市場需求不會有重大變化。我們贏了。我們贏得了一些新獎項，但我們對下半年的展望實際上取決於市場的發展。目前很難說。這就是為什麼我們忽略提供全年指導，因為很難說市場將如何發展。

Understood. And thank you very much.

明白了。非常感謝你。

Thank you, David.

謝謝你，大衛。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

Thank you and good morning. I had a few questions on AmSty. First, are you able to quantify the impact of the turnaround in Q1? What would that $6 million have looked like if you were not in turnaround? Two, what kind of interest are you seeing in marketing the AmSty JV? And then three, could you explain a little bit more about this ownership exit provision? What exactly will happen in early 2025 with the other (technical difficulty) to go back to the other turnaround (technical difficulty)?

謝謝你，早安。我對 AmSty 有幾個問題。首先，您能否量化第一季扭虧為盈的影響？如果你沒有轉虧為盈，這 600 萬美元會是什麼樣子？第二，您對行銷 AmSty JV 有何興趣？第三，您能否進一步解釋一下所有權退出條款？2025年初到底會發生什麼事與對方（技術難度）回到對方週轉（技術難度）？

So let me take the back half of that question, and I'll let Dave take the first part of it. So we've seen indications of interest from a number of strategics and financial parties in the AmSty asset. When we signaled that we would be using this prescriptive JV exit provision. But we haven't begun actively marketing the asset jointly with our joint venture partner at this point.

因此，讓我回答這個問題的後半部分，然後讓戴夫回答問題的前半部分。因此，我們看到許多策略和金融方對 AmSty 資產表現出興趣。當我們表示我們將使用這項規定性合資企業退出條款。但目前我們尚未開始與合資夥伴聯合積極行銷該資產。

But and I can say that it's a great asset. It's recognized as one of the best styrenics assets in the world. So I'm confident we will see interest and a good process when that begins. So the JV exit provisions that are defined under the JV agreement have a number of steps. We're working through those steps. Ultimately, those steps result in a joint marketing of the asset.

但我可以說這是一筆巨大的財富。它被公認為世界上最好的苯乙烯資產之一。所以我相信，當這一切開始時，我們會看到興趣和一個好的過程。因此，合資協議下定義的合資退出條款有多個步驟。我們正在完成這些步驟。最終，這些步驟將導致資產的聯合行銷。

So there's certain prescriptive elements we need to complete before we get to that point. And we're in the process of doing that. But again, even if those take their fully exhausted those preliminary steps, we are very confident that this will result in a signing of a transaction by early 2025.

因此，在達到這一點之前，我們需要完成某些規定性要素。我們正在這樣做。但同樣，即使這些初步步驟已全部完成，我們也非常有信心在 2025 年初簽署交易。

Matthew, related to the first part of your question, the impact to us of the AmSty of the outage, they were out for substantially all of January and February for a planned outage. They have to styrene units and each one turns around every three to four years. So they often have these turnarounds in the first quarter. The impact to our earnings in the first quarter of this year was probably high single digits, $8 million or so, I'd say from the turnaround.

馬修，關於你問題的第一部分，AmSty 停電對我們的影響，他們幾乎整個一月和二月都因計劃停電而停工。他們必須使用苯乙烯裝置，每個裝置每三到四年更換一次。所以他們常常在第一季出現這些轉變。今年第一季我們的獲利受到的影響可能高達個位數，大約 800 萬美元，我想說的是，從扭虧為盈來看。

The reason is that low is because styrene prices really didn't accelerate in margins until March. So they were up in March. As you can see, I think we had $6 million in EBITDA in the quarter and substantially all of that was in March. As we look forward to Q4, we obviously considerably better results.

之所以如此低，是因為苯乙烯價格直到三月才真正提高利潤率。所以他們在三月就起來了。正如您所看到的，我認為本季我們的 EBITDA 為 600 萬美元，其中大部分都發生在 3 月。當我們期待第四季度時，我們的結果顯然要好得多。

I think our equity income from AmSty will probably be $20 million or higher in the second quarter because of the high margins that we continue to see some. But related to styrene, a tangential point I'll just say is, in my prepared remarks earlier, I did say we do expect styrene prices, you know, these outages are starting to end as units are coming back online as we speak that are out.

我認為第二季我們從 AmSty 獲得的股權收入可能會達到 2000 萬美元或更高，因為我們繼續看到高利潤率。但與苯乙烯相關，我要說的一個切線點是，在我之前準備好的講話中，我確實說過我們確實預計苯乙烯價格，你知道，隨著裝置重新上線，正如我們所說，這些停電開始結束出去。

And we do expect a fairly significant decline in styrene prices late in Q2 and into Q3. The working capital benefit for us associated, that will probably be a Q3 item for us. And we obviously, for liquidity purposes, look forward to that.

我們確實預計苯乙烯價格在第二季末和第三季將出現相當大的下跌。我們相關的營運資金效益可能會成為我們第三季的一個專案。顯然，出於流動性目的，我們對此充滿期待。

Good. And then, are there any net timing function in your Q2 guidance? We did see European sign contracts in May come down, although the Q2 average is still well above Q1. So if you could help us think about the (technical difficulty)

好的。那麼，你們的第二季指導中有沒有淨計時功能呢？我們確實看到歐洲 5 月簽訂的合約有所下降，儘管第二季度的平均水平仍遠高於第一季。所以如果你能幫助我們思考一下（技術難度）

Yeah, it's embedded in the guidance range that we gave, Matthew, that the Frank mentioned on the call of $60 million to $75 million embedded in that, we believe net timing will be negative $5 million to negative $10 million in the quarter. So that's embedded in the guidance.

是的，它包含在我們給出的指導範圍內，馬修，弗蘭克在電話會議上提到的6000 萬至7500 萬美元嵌入其中，我們相信本季度的淨時間將是負500 萬美元到負1000萬美元。這已包含在指南中。

The reason -- the working capital as that works its way through your balance sheet is, there's a month or two lag really between the between the P&L impact and the recognition on your balance sheet of the lower working capital. So that's why I said it's probably the working capital benefit would be in Q3, but the P&L impact in Q2.

原因是，營運資金透過您的資產負債表運作，在損益影響與資產負債表上對較低營運資金的認可之間確實存在一兩個月的滯後。所以這就是為什麼我說營運資本收益可能會出現在第三季度，但損益影響會出現在第二季度。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic 全球顧問。

Morning, Frank and Dave. I know it's early days and some positive sort of demand signs emerging, and I understand sort of sensitivities around sort of divulging a 2024 guidance. But I mean, look, you guys did around $154 million in EBITDA in 2023, right?

早上好，法蘭克和戴夫。我知道現在還為時過早，一些積極的需求跡象正在出現，而且我了解洩漏 2024 年指導意見的敏感度。但我的意思是，看，你們 2023 年的 EBITDA 約為 1.54 億美元，對吧？

From the sounds of it, the restructuring benefits certainly seem to be run-rating at levels above a $100 million, right? So I mean straight up, that's north of $250 million for 2024 EBITDA without even factoring in some of these demand improvements that you guys are talking about and seeing?

從表面上看，重組帶來的收益似乎肯定超過 1 億美元，對吧？所以我的意思是，直接說，2024 年 EBITDA 就超過了 2.5 億美元，甚至沒有考慮到你們正在談論和看到的一些需求改善？

Am I thinking about things the right way as it pertains to '24?

我是否以正確的方式思考與「24」有關的事？

Yeah. Thanks, Hassan. Look, I think what we've assumed is that year-over-year volume growth is going to be in the lower single digit range for the remainder of the year and the volume dynamic will be similar to 2023. But we are confident we'll deliver the $100 million in year-over-year improvement that we anticipated.

是的。謝謝，哈桑。看，我認為我們的假設是，今年剩餘時間內銷量同比增長將處於較低的個位數範圍內，並且銷售動態將與 2023 年類似。但我們有信心能夠實現我們預期的 1 億美元的年進步。

Will we get it exactly in the same buckets that we thought we would? Probably not. But I think we're confident in the $100 million and we're encouraged by the start to the year. But very difficult to anticipate how the second half of the year and the market demand will develop during the second half of the year. So I would just leave it at that.

我們會像我們想像的那樣把它放在同一個桶子裡嗎？可能不會。但我認為我們對 1 億美元充滿信心，並且對今年的開局感到鼓舞。但很難預測下半年以及下半年市場需求將如何發展。所以我就這樣吧。

So, Hassan, let me add a couple of things if you will please. So in Q1, we clearly had a step up in volume. Our volumes were up sequentially about 12% in the first quarter versus the fourth quarter, and that was very broad-based and in all segments. But on a year-over-year basis, it's up about 1%.

所以，哈桑，如果您願意的話，讓我補充幾件事。因此，在第一季度，我們的銷量明顯增加。與第四季度相比，第一季我們的銷量環比增長了約 12%，而且這一增長基礎非常廣泛，涉及所有細分市場。但與去年同期相比，上漲了約 1%。

So I would attribute most of the Q4 to Q1 transition to seasonality. So as Frank said, I think we're very comfortable with delivering the $100 million even in a low growth environment like we've assumed. We're managing the business based on the assumption that we continue to have constrained growth and low single digit year over year growth. We're clearly not going to build any inventory for growth unless we see clear signs in the order book that that growth is there.

因此，我將第四季到第一季的大部分轉變歸因於季節性。正如弗蘭克所說，我認為即使在我們假設的低成長環境中，我們也非常願意交付 1 億美元。我們管理業務的基礎是我們的成長持續受到限制，年成長仍處於低個位數。除非我們在訂單中看到明顯的跡象表明增長已經存在，否則我們顯然不會建立任何庫存來實現增長。

I just wanted to give you that color. Everything kind of we're talking about here for Q2 numbers as continues at that -- it's not really a demand recovery we're seeing at it's more of a margin recovery.

我只是想給你那種顏色。我們在這裡談論的第二季數據的一切仍在繼續——我們看到的並不是真正的需求復甦，更多的是利潤率的復甦。

Very helpful. And as a follow-up, on the MMA side of things, can you talk a bit about what you guys are seeing in terms of trade patterns over there? Because I know, a couple of quarters ago, we were all seeing that arbitrage opportunity between MMA out in Asia and Europe and you guys are talking about more and more Asian products going into Europe.

很有幫助。作為後續行動，在 MMA 方面，您能談談您所看到的貿易模式嗎？因為我知道，幾個季度前，我們都看到了亞洲和歐洲的 MMA 之間的套利機會，你們正在談論越來越多的亞洲產品進入歐洲。

So if you could just talk a bit about whether those trade patterns have normalized, and that arbitrage opportunity is closed?

那麼，您是否可以談談這些貿易模式是否已經正常化，以及套利機會是否已經結束？

It's certainly reduced and the Red Sea and the crisis as well as the extended lead times from Asia into Europe have reduced the ability to ship this reactive monomer from Asia. But more importantly, the weakness in epoxy, polycarbonate and nylon demand in China really constrains final production, which the byproduct Diphenol production is acetone, which is a key building block for MMA [be at the C3 route] and it also affects hydrogen cyanide, HCN is the byproduct for -- then that one of the byproducts in the nylon chain.

它肯定會減少，紅海和危機以及從亞洲到歐洲的交貨時間延長降低了從亞洲運輸這種反應單體的能力。但更重要的是，中國環氧樹脂、聚碳酸酯和尼龍需求疲軟確實限制了最終生產，其中副產品聯苯酚生產是丙酮，丙酮是MMA（C3路線）的關鍵組成部分，它也會影響氰化氫， HCN 是尼龍鏈中的副產品之一。

So that availability is reduced. We also are seeing [beta dyiene C4] production significantly reduced in Asia because of the slowness in that market. So these factors are constraining the ability of the Chinese MMA production. They're actually running at greatly reduced rates.

因此可用性降低了。我們也發現，由於亞洲市場成長緩慢，[β二烯 C4] 產量大幅減少。這些因素都限制中國MMA的生產能力。他們實際上以大大降低的速度運行。

So the combination of those two things are creating the current dynamic. Now while things are better and we see slight improvements or signals of improvement in China, broadly, those specific value chains we see is currently still challenged.

因此，這兩件事的結合正在創造當前的動態。現在，雖然情況有所好轉，我們看到中國略有改善或出現改善的訊號，但總的來說，我們看到的那些特定價值鏈目前仍然面臨挑戰。

And we don't anticipate a significant change in that. If you look at Europe and North America, those markets are on a net short currently. You see a recovery in architectural coatings that it tightened the market up. So those factors combined have made it a much more higher margin MMA market and we've obviously benefited from that. So I hope that's helpful.

我們預計這不會發生重大變化。如果你看看歐洲和北美，這些市場目前處於淨空頭狀態。你會看到建築塗料的復甦，這導致了市場的收緊。因此，這些因素結合起來，使其成為利潤率更高的 MMA 市場，我們顯然從中受益。所以我希望這有幫助。

Very much so. Thank you so much, Frank, and thanks again, Dave.

非常如此。非常感謝你，弗蘭克，再次感謝你，戴夫。

Thanks, Hassan.

謝謝，哈桑。

[Kevina Stark], Jefferies.

[凱維娜·史塔克]，傑弗里斯。

Hey. Thank you for taking my questions. I guess my first question just had to do with mix. I'm just curious how you characterize as volumes sort of rise, would your mix improve? And would you benefit from basically higher margin product sales? Or would you expect there to be a drag on mix? Just wanted to get some sense of how it evolved in Q2 and Q3. Thank you.

嘿。感謝您回答我的問題。我想我的第一個問題與混合有關。我只是好奇你如何描述隨著銷量的增加，你的組合會改善嗎？您會從利潤率較高的產品銷售中受益嗎？還是你認為混音會被拖累？只是想了解它在第二季和第三季的演變。謝謝。

Sure. Great question. While we anticipate a low single digit volume improvement year over year in 2024, we do see a much a more favorable mix. So EM growth will be better than the broader portfolio. EM resins are rigid compounds and engineered materials that go into consumer electronics as well as our surfaces business, which are higher margin applications, and the company will grow faster than our low single digits.

當然。很好的問題。雖然我們預計 2024 年銷量將比去年同期出現低個位數成長，但我們確實看到了更有利的組合。因此，新興市場的成長將好於更廣泛的投資組合。EM 樹脂是剛性化合物和工程材料，可用於消費性電子產品以及我們的表面業務，這些都是利潤率較高的應用，公司的成長速度將超過我們的低個位數。

And our lowest gross area, actually, we're seeing negative growth in polystyrene, which would be our one of the lower margin applications. So we will enjoy a favorable mix during the course of the year if based on the current assumptions that we have.

實際上，我們的總面積最低的是聚苯乙烯的負成長，這將是我們利潤率較低的應用之一。因此，如果基於我們目前的假設，我們將在這一年中享受到有利的組合。

The other thing I did want to point out that, you know, in Q1, as Dave said, we had 12% sequential improvement in volume compared to Q4. But also, we did see a lot of volume growth, 15% volume growth in the Asia Pacific but all of that was concentrated in paper and board for latex in Asia, which we don't see that as -- that was really driven by some unique industry events that we don't see continuing.

我確實想指出的另一件事是，正如戴夫所說，在第一季度，與第四季度相比，我們的銷量環比提高了 12%。而且，我們確實看到了很大的銷量增長，亞太地區的銷量增長了 15％，但所有這些都集中在亞洲的乳膠紙和紙板上，我們認為這實際上不是由一些我們認為不會持續的獨特行業活動。

So those are the things that we're balancing. But yes, favorable mix through the full year with EM applications growing better than the rest of the portfolio.

這些就是我們正在平衡的事情。但是，是的，全年的有利組合，新興市場應用的成長優於其他產品組合。

Okay. Got it. Thank you. Apologies if this question had been asked, but my service has been a little spotty on this call. I'm wondering, were you still seeing destocking, I guess, in which value chain specifically? Thank you.

好的。知道了。謝謝。如果有人問這個問題，我深表歉意，但我在這次通話中的服務有點不穩定。我想知道，您是否仍然看到去庫存，具體是在哪個價值鏈中？謝謝。

Yeah, the only place where we're seeing some -- where we would see some signs of destocking is in downstream building and construction related to polystyrene, EPS, XPS applications. So those are the only areas where we currently bleeding, Q1 or -- and that's specific to Europe and North America.

是的，我們唯一看到一些去庫存跡象的地方是與聚苯乙烯、EPS、XPS 應用相關的下游建築和施工。因此，這些是我們目前唯一出血的領域，第一季或——這是歐洲和北美特有的。

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

好的，太好了。非常感謝。

Ed Brucker, Barclays.

埃德布魯克，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thanks for the call this morning. My first question is on demand. As you mentioned, you're still not near normal levels. I guess how far below normal levels are you still? If you could do broadly by business? And for example, like in Engineered Materials business, you said a $20 million. If you run rate that, is that kind of normal demand now? Or is there upside if we get a demand to return?

嘿，謝謝你今天早上的電話。我的第一個問題是按需提出的。正如您所提到的，您仍然沒有接近正常水平。我猜你還比正常低多少？如果你可以做廣泛的業務？例如，在工程材料業務中，您說 2000 萬美元。如果你評估一下，現在這種需求是正常的嗎？或者如果我們要求返回會有好處嗎？

Yeah. So, in the earnings presentation, there's a pretty good breakdown of the trade volumes by segment. And what I would tell you is, we're about 20% below the historical run rate volumes for the whole portfolio as it exists today compared to normal demand over the previous cycle, even the previous decade.

是的。因此，在收益報告中，按細分市場對貿易量進行了相當詳細的細分。我要告訴你的是，與上一個週期（甚至是前十年）的正常需求相比，目前整個投資組合的歷史運行量大約低 20%。

And so, what I would tell you too, is with the current mix in the portfolio that for every 10% improvement, that's approximately a $25 million per quarter EBITDA impact. So in our $100 million per year for every 10% recovery. So if we get halfway back to normal volumes, we would expect that to deliver an additional $25 million a quarter in EBITDA in aggregate.

因此，我還要告訴您的是，根據目前的投資組合組合，每改善 10%，每季 EBITDA 的影響約為 2500 萬美元。因此，我們每年每恢復 10% 就投入 1 億美元。因此，如果我們的產量恢復到正常水準的一半，我們預計每季 EBITDA 總計將額外增加 2,500 萬美元。

Got it. That's helpful. Thank you. My second question, the $150 million stub of the 2025's outstanding, what was the reasoning behind leaving that outstanding? And then what do you or what are the plans to address that maturity over the next or I guess before it goes [current]?

知道了。這很有幫助。謝謝。我的第二個問題，2025 年未償付的 1.5 億美元存根，留下未償付的原因是什麼？然後你會做什麼或有什麼計劃來解決下一個或我猜在它消失之前的成熟度[目前的]？

The reason behind leaving -- it was really covenant. For covenant reasons we left that. We did a transaction in September of last year, as you're aware, and the sizing of that transaction was constrained by covenants. So look, we clearly have to look at cash and liquidity to address that -- less concerned about -- I don't view it going covenant necessarily as a constraining factor as to when we need to address that.

離開的原因──確實是盟約。出於聖約的原因，我們離開了。如您所知，我們在去年 9 月進行了一筆交易，該交易的規模受到契約的限制。所以看，我們顯然必須考慮現金和流動性來解決這個問題——不太關心——我不認為它的契約必然是我們何時需要解決這個問題的限制因素。

I mean, it also happens to be our lowest cost of debt right also. Look, our plans are to either pay it off or refinance it in a transaction. We do have a number of divested sale processes underway. I mean that could bring in incremental proceeds.

我的意思是，這也剛好是我們最低的債務成本。看，我們的計劃是要么還清貸款，要么通過交易進行再融資。我們確實正在進行一些剝離的銷售流程。我的意思是這可以帶來增量收益。

I think, as Frank mentioned in his prepared remarks, the AmSty sale, the net proceeds from that already would be earmarked to most recently issued debt, but other asset sales could be used for others. So again, I think we're comfortable with our liquidity and our ability to handle that maturity. But don't feel compelled to do that before it goes current.

我認為，正如弗蘭克在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，AmSty 出售的淨收益將指定用於最近發行的債務，但其他資產出售可以用於其他用途。再說一次，我認為我們對我們的流動性和處理到期的能力感到滿意。但在它流行之前，不要覺得有必要這樣做。

And just one last one, I noticed the 8-K for the retention bonus average put out at the end of February. What was the reasoning behind those retention bonuses?

最後一點，我注意到 2 月底發布的平均保留獎金為 8-K。這些保留獎金背後的原因是什麼？

Yeah. We had several members of the team that did exceptional work navigating through the deepest part of the cycle. And at the same time, we wanted to create a strong incentive and recognition retention for those efforts, and that's what it reflects.

是的。我們的團隊中有幾位成員在整個週期的最深處做出了出色的工作。同時，我們希望為這些努力創造強而有力的激勵和認可，這就是它所反映的。

Roger Spitz, Bank of America.

羅傑‧斯皮茨，美國銀行。

Thanks very much. Good morning. Regarding AmSty, just to see if I understood correctly, you're saying that preliminary steps you're having to take before you start marketing this, will likely result in both you and CP Chemical working together to sell all of AmStys? Did I hear that correctly or did I misinterpre that?

非常感謝。早安.關於 AmSty，只是想看看我是否理解正確，您是說在開始行銷之前必須採取的初步步驟可能會導致您和 CP Chemical 共同出售所有 AmStys？我聽對了還是誤會了？

No, these steps are prescriptive in their precursory to a joint marketing effort, but it will certainly result in a joint marketing of the asset. It's just that we have to go through these prescriptive steps.

不，這些步驟是聯合行銷工作的前提，但它肯定會導致資產的共同行銷。只是我們必須執行這些規定步驟。

Got it. But the thing is, AmSty will be sold. Both parties will sell their 50% stakes in AmSty. Is that correct?

知道了。但問題是，AmSty 將被出售。雙方將出售其所持有的AmSty 50%股權。那是對的嗎？

Yeah, I'm sorry. Can you repeat the question. I missed it.

是的，對不起。你能重複一下這個問題嗎？我錯過了。

You're going to be marketing all of AmSty. Somebody, a potential buyer will be looking to buy all of AmSty, not just your 50%?

您將行銷整個 AmSty。有人，潛在的買家會想要購買 AmSty 的全部，而不僅僅是您的 50%？

That is correct.

那是對的。

Okay. That's it, thank you very much.

好的。就是這樣，非常感謝。

And we have now concluded our question-and-answer session. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

現在我們的問答環節已經結束。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。