Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. We welcome the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Andy Myers, Director of Investor Relations.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加盛禧奧 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。我們歡迎盛禧奧 (Trinseo) 管理團隊總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich； David Stasse，執行副總裁兼財務長；和投資者關係總監安迪‧邁爾斯 (Andy Myers)。

Today's conference call will include brief remarks by the management team followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release, along with its presentation slides, at close of market Friday, November 3. These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。該公司在 11 月 3 日星期五收盤時發布了新聞稿及其簡報幻燈片。這些文件發佈在該公司的投資者關係網站上，並以向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格形式提供。

(Operator Instructions) And now I'll hand things over to Andy Myers. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）現在我將把事情交給安迪·邁爾斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Bo, and good morning, everyone. (Operator Instructions) Our disclosure rules and cautionary note on forward-looking statements are noted on Slide 2.

謝謝你，Bo，大家早安。 （操作員說明）投影片 2 中註明了我們的揭露規則和前瞻性陳述的警示說明。

During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations. We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, risk factors set forth in Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次演示中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導和描述我們的未來期望。我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。

The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP measurements. A reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation. A replay of the conference call and transcript will be provided on the company's Investor Relations website shortly following the call. The replay will be available until November 6, 2024. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的演示包括某些非 GAAP 衡量標準。我們的收益報告和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了這些衡量標準與相應公認會計原則衡量標準的對帳。電話會議的重播和文字記錄將在電話會議後不久在公司的投資者關係網站上提供。重播將持續到 2024 年 11 月 6 日。現在我想將電話轉給 Frank Bozich。

Thanks, Andy, and welcome to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. I'd like to start with a discussion of our Q3 results. As expected, our Q3 sales volume was roughly flat to Q2 and consistent with the lower demand level we've seen over the past year. This reflects lower end customer demand, particularly in consumer durables and building and construction, continued customer destocking as well as weaker market demand in Asia, leading to higher exports to Europe.

謝謝安迪，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。我想先討論我們第三季的業績。正如預期的那樣，我們第三季的銷售量與第二季大致持平，並且與過去一年中較低的需求水準一致。這反映出終端客戶需求較低，特別是耐用消費品和建築業，客戶持續去庫存以及亞洲市場需求疲軟，導致對歐洲的出口增加。

However, looking at our customers, we feel we are seeing a slowing of destocking and are hopeful this will end in the near future, depending on the value chain. Despite this prolonged period of reduced demand, we've taken numerous asset footprint and other cost reduction actions to improve our profitability. Late last year, we announced the closures of our styrene plant in Boehlen, Germany and half of our polycarbonate production in Stade, Germany, along with consolidating our PMMA sheet production in North America.

然而，從我們的客戶來看，我們認為去庫存正在放緩，並希望這種情況在不久的將來結束，這取決於價值鏈。儘管需求持續減少，我們仍採取了大量資產足跡和其他成本削減措施來提高獲利能力。去年年底，我們宣布關閉位於德國博倫的苯乙烯工廠和位於德國施塔德的一半聚碳酸酯工廠，同時整合我們在北美的 PMMA 板材生產。

This year, we've seen significant profitability and free cash flow improvements from these actions. I would like to refer to the additional actions we've recently announced, which are highlighted on Slide 4 of our investor deck. First, the closure of our Terneuzen the Netherlands styrene plant; second, the optimization of our PMMA sheet network in Europe, including plant consolidations; and lastly, corporate cost reductions, including the elimination of certain executive positions.

今年，我們看到這些行動帶來了顯著的獲利能力和自由現金流改善。我想提及我們最近宣布的其他行動，這些行動在我們投資者平台的幻燈片 4 中突出顯示。首先，關閉我們位於荷蘭泰爾訥的苯乙烯工廠；其次，優化我們在歐洲的 PMMA 片材網絡，包括工廠整合；最後，降低企業成本，包括取消某些高階主管職位。

In aggregate, these recent actions are expected to result in approximately $75 million of annual cost reductions that we expect to be realized in 2024. We believe these actions will not only increase our profitability and cash generation but will also enable us to continue investing in transformation projects such as recycling and material substitution innovations, which offers significant growth potential even in the current market environment.

總的來說，這些最近的行動預計將帶來約7,500 萬美元的年度成本削減，我們預計將在2024 年實現這一目標。我們相信這些行動不僅會提高我們的獲利能力和現金生成能力，而且也將使我們能夠繼續投資於轉型回收和材料替代創新等項目即使在當前的市場環境下也具有巨大的成長潛力。

While market demand has remained challenging for the entire industry, we continue to see the benefit of the shift in our portfolio to one that is more specialty and sustainability solutions oriented. In 2023, specialty and sustainable solutions comprise about 30% of our variable margin, and this is about double the level of 2020. This part of our portfolio has shown better margin resiliency in the current environment.

儘管市場需求對整個行業仍然充滿挑戰，但我們繼續看到我們的產品組合轉向更專業和可持續解決方案導向的產品組合的好處。到 2023 年，專業和永續解決方案約占我們可變利潤的 30%，約為 2020 年水準的兩倍。我們投資組合的這一部分在當前環境下表現出了更好的利潤彈性。

Continued focus on growing these technologies and also taking decisive action on our more cost-sensitive assets gives us additional levers to improve profit while market demand remains depressed. Looking at Q3 profitability, we reported a net loss from continuing operations of $38 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $41 million. This result was below our expectations due mainly to the styrene-related impacts during the quarter, including a short-term spike in European styrene prices, while we were buying all of our styrene on the spot market during the unplanned outage at Terneuzen.

繼續專注於發展這些技術並對我們對成本更加敏感的資產採取果斷行動，為我們在市場需求仍然低迷的情況下提高利潤提供了額外的槓桿。就第三季的獲利能力而言，我們報告持續經營業務淨虧損為 3,800 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 4,100 萬美元。這一結果低於我們的預期，主要是由於本季度與苯乙烯相關的影響，包括歐洲苯乙烯價格的短期飆升，而我們在泰爾訥曾意外停電期間在現貨市場上購買了所有苯乙烯。

However, I'm proud to say that due to our continued focus on working capital, we were able to generate positive free cash flow for the third consecutive quarter. In addition, as previously announced, we've successfully refinanced all of our 2024 term loan and over 75% of our 2025 loans. Going back to the Terneuzen styrene closure, I want to be clear that we did not take the closure of this plant lightly, but styrene profitability has been negative for the last 9 quarters.

然而，我很自豪地說，由於我們持續關注營運資金，我們能夠連續第三個季度產生正的自由現金流。此外，正如先前宣布的，我們已成功為所有 2024 年定期貸款和超過 75% 的 2025 年貸款進行再融資。回到泰爾訥曾苯乙烯工廠的關閉，我想澄清的是，我們並沒有對關閉這家工廠掉以輕心，但過去 9 個季度苯乙烯的盈利能力一直為負。

With elevated energy prices in Europe, styrene production cost in the region is one of the highest in the world. Plus given the recent and planned global styrene capacity additions, we believe this feedstock will remain structurally long through the end of the decade. Therefore, we believe we will be able to purchase styrene at lower prices than our production costs. The positive result of our previously announced Boehlen closure supports this as the correct course of action.

隨著歐洲能源價格的上漲，該地區的苯乙烯生產成本是世界上最高的地區之一。此外，考慮到最近和計劃中的全球苯乙烯產能增加，我們相信這種原料在結構上將在本十年末保持長期。因此，我們相信我們將能夠以低於生產成本的價格購買苯乙烯。我們之前宣布的 Boehlen 關閉的積極結果支持這是正確的行動方針。

This closure also reduces production risk, ongoing capital and turnaround costs while lowering our energy intensity and carbon footprint. With the closure of Terneuzen styrene, we will no longer produce styrene anywhere in the world. We will, therefore, purchase all of our styrene needs from third parties. We have always purchased all of our styrene needs in North America and Asia as well as a significant percentage of our European requirements. So this model is not new to us.

此次關閉也降低了生產風險、持續資本和周轉成本，同時降低了我們的能源強度和碳足跡。隨著泰爾訥曾苯乙烯工廠的關閉，我們將不再在世界任何地方生產苯乙烯。因此，我們將從第三方購買所有苯乙烯需求。我們一直在北美和亞洲購買所有苯乙烯需求，以及歐洲需求的很大一部分。所以這個模型對我們來說並不新鮮。

We plan to buy via diversified geographic and commercial arrangement, providing us with flexibility to optimize our purchases. Starting in Q1 of 2024, we will no longer have a feedstocks reporting segment and the actual purchase positive styrene will flow through to the derivative segments, polystyrene, plastic solutions and latex binders. These businesses passed through styrene costs in the product prices either through market mechanisms or via price formulas. Because we will be buying all of our styrene and generally operate with pass-through economics in our downstream businesses, we don't expect to see the volatility of styrene margins in our results.

我們計劃透過多元化的地理和商業安排進行採購，為我們提供優化採購的靈活性。從 2024 年第一季開始，我們將不再有原料報告部門，實際採購的苯乙烯將流向衍生性商品部門、聚苯乙烯、塑膠溶液和乳膠黏合劑。這些企業透過市場機製或價格公式將苯乙烯成本轉嫁給產品價格。由於我們將購買所有苯乙烯，下游業務通常採用傳遞經濟學進行運營，因此我們預計業績中不會出現苯乙烯利潤率的波動。

Before I hand the call over to Dave, I'd like to talk to you about our progress in sustainability. This continues to be a bright spot, and our sales volume for recycled content containing products was up 10% year-to-date from our continued focus in this very important area. On this topic, I'd like to provide more details on one of our sustainability projects that I'm particularly excited about.

在將電話轉交給戴夫之前，我想與您談談我們在永續發展方面的進展。這仍然是一個亮點，由於我們持續關注這個非常重要的領域，今年迄今為止，我們含有回收成分的產品銷售量成長了 10%。關於這個主題，我想提供有關我特別興奮的一個可持續發展項目的更多詳細資訊。

Earlier this year, we announced the inauguration of our polycarbonate dissolution pilot facility introduced in the Netherlands. Since that announcement, I'm happy to report that the pilot facility is fully operational, has been qualifying mixed waste streams and producing samples of recycled polycarbonate for our customers. Through this ongoing investment and our ability to repurpose the idle polycarbonate production line in Stade, Germany, for this process, we expect to be able to achieve industrial scale production beginning in 2025 with a low capital expenditure.

今年早些時候，我們宣佈在荷蘭引進的聚碳酸酯溶解試點設施落成。自從發布該公告以來，我很高興地向大家報告，該試點設施已全面投入運行，一直在對混合廢物流進行鑑定，並為我們的客戶生產再生聚碳酸酯樣品。透過這項持續的投資以及我們將德國施塔德閒置的聚碳酸酯生產線重新用於該製程的能力，我們預計能夠從 2025 年開始以較低的資本支出實現工業規模生產。

Now I'd like to highlight some of the unique features of our technology and the advantages it will provide in the future. Our process uses our proprietary advanced physical recycling technology that enables the recovery of polycarbonate polymer from end-of-life plastics such as automotive parts and consumer electronics that are difficult to recycle via traditional mechanical recycling methods.

現在我想重點介紹我們技術的一些獨特功能以及它將在未來提供的優勢。我們的製程採用我們專有的先進物理回收技術，能夠從汽車零件和消費性電子產品等報廢塑膠中回收聚碳酸酯聚合物，這些塑膠很難透過傳統的機械回收方法回收。

Our technology allows us to extract polycarbonate polymer from a mixed waste stream, meaning polycarbonate containing mixed waste mixed with other plastic, metal or glass giving us the ability to process waste that would otherwise be unrecyclable. As a result, certain waste that could only be sent to a landfill or an incinerator can be recovered and recycled using our technology. This will enable closed-loop partnerships with automotive, electronics and consumer good customers that currently produce end-of-life plastics.

我們的技術使我們能夠從混合廢物流中提取聚碳酸酯聚合物，這意味著聚碳酸酯含有與其他塑膠、金屬或玻璃混合的混合廢物，使我們能夠處理原本無法回收的廢物。因此，某些只能送到垃圾掩埋場或焚化爐的廢棄物可以使用我們的技術進行回收和循環。這將有助於與目前生產報廢塑膠的汽車、電子和消費品客戶建立閉環合作夥伴關係。

These partnerships are highly attractive to our customers as they provide circular solutions. In addition to the sustainability advantages of our technology, quality of polycarbonate that we extract through the dissolution process is on par with virgin PC and contains lower levels of residual bisphenol A. These reduced BPA levels could potentially expand the types of applications for which recycled PC is approved.

這些合作關係對我們的客戶極具吸引力，因為它們提供循環解決方案。除了我們技術的可持續性優勢之外，我們透過溶解過程提取的聚碳酸酯的品質與原始 PC 相當，並且殘留雙酚 A 的含量較低。BPA 含量的降低可能會擴大回收 PC 的應用類型被批准。

Our process also emits up to 3x less CO2 than virgin PC production, making both the process and end products more sustainable. Finally, because this technology permits the use of lower value waste and feedstock as feedstock, we anticipate at scale, it will result in cost savings compared to virgin PC production. I'd like to thank our research and development team for their truly innovative work and their dedication towards creating a cleaner, more circular polycarbonate technology.

我們的製程的二氧化碳排放量也比原始 PC 生產少 3 倍，使製程和最終產品更具永續性。最後，由於該技術允許使用價值較低的廢棄物和原料作為原料，我們預計，與原始 PC 生產相比，大規模生產將節省成本。我要感謝我們的研發團隊真正的創新工作以及他們對創造更乾淨、更循環的聚碳酸酯技術的奉獻。

This is just one of the many exciting projects that we continue to focus on in order to achieve our 2030 sustainability and growth goals and continue to increase the mix of specialties in our portfolio. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

這只是我們繼續關注的眾多令人興奮的項目之一，以實現我們的 2030 年永續發展和成長目標，並繼續增加我們產品組合中的專業組合。現在我想把電話轉給戴夫。

Thank you, Frank. Our third quarter adjusted EBITDA was below our expectations due mainly to lower styrene-related margin from our unplanned outage at Terneuzen as well as negative net timing from decreasing raw materials. Results included unfavorable impacts of $15 million related to the Terneuzen styrene outage, $11 million from natural gas hedge losses and $4 million from net timing.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。我們第三季調整後的 EBITDA 低於我們的預期，主要是由於泰爾訥曾計劃外停電導致苯乙烯相關利潤率下降，以及原材料減少導致的淨時間為負。結果包括與泰爾訥曾苯乙烯停駛相關的 1500 萬美元的不利影響、天然氣對沖損失的 1100 萬美元以及淨計時損失的 400 萬美元。

Please note that the $11 million impact from natural gas hedges has decreased from $19 million in the first quarter and $12 million in the second quarter. We expect this impact to be about $5 million in the fourth quarter and about $5 million overall in 2024. In the second quarter, we had free cash flow of $16 million, including a working capital reduction of $52 million, which was driven by continued cash initiatives.

請注意，天然氣對沖帶來的 1,100 萬美元影響已較第一季的 1,900 萬美元和第二季的 1,200 萬美元有所下降。我們預計第四季的影響約為500 萬美元，2024 年整體影響約為500 萬美元。第二季度，我們的自由現金流為1,600 萬美元，其中營運資本減少5,200 萬美元，這是由持續現金流推動的倡議。

Year-to-date, we have reduced working capital by over $150 million, and over 80% of this reduction is from lower working capital days as opposed to price. We are comfortable operating at this reduced level of working capital as long as this demand environment persists. We ended the third quarter with $279 million of cash and $495 million of liquidity, including our undrawn bank facilities.

今年迄今為止，我們已減少了超過 1.5 億美元的營運資金，其中超過 80% 的減少來自於營運資金天數的減少，而不是價格。只要這種需求環境持續存在，我們就可以在營運資本減少的情況下輕鬆運作。第三季末，我們擁有 2.79 億美元現金和 4.95 億美元流動資金，包括未提取的銀行融資。

The last item I'd like to discuss is our recent refinancing. As Slide 13 in our deck shows, we refinanced $660 million of the $224 million term loan and $385 million of the 2025 senior notes, extending these maturities to 2028. This leaves $115 million of notes due in September 2025 and no other maturities until 2028. Now I'll turn the call back over to Frank, who will talk about our expectations for the remainder of 2023.

我想討論的最後一個項目是我們最近的再融資。正如幻燈片13 所示，我們對2.24 億美元定期貸款中的6.6 億美元和2025 年優先票據中的3.85 億美元進行了再融資，將這些到期日延長至2028 年。這使得1.15 億美元的票據將於2025 年9 月到期，並且在2028 年之前沒有其他到期日。現在我將把電話轉回 Frank，他將談論我們對 2023 年剩餘時間的期望。

Thanks, David. Looking at our forecast for the rest of the year, we're guiding to a full year net loss of $509 million to $499 million and adjusted EBITDA of $175 million to $185 million. This updated full year adjusted EBITDA outlook is below our prior guidance, primarily from lower styrene-related margin and unfavorable net timing in Q3 as well as a more pronounced year-end seasonality impact in Q4.

謝謝，大衛。從我們對今年剩餘時間的預測來看，我們預計全年淨虧損為 5.09 億美元至 4.99 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 1.75 億美元至 1.85 億美元。更新後的全年調整後 EBITDA 前景低於我們先前的指引，主要是由於苯乙烯相關利潤率較低和第三季不利的淨時間以及第四季度更明顯的年末季節性影響。

As we continue to navigate a sustained low demand environment, we've been proactive by taking significant action to enhance profitability and cash generation, including numerous initiatives regarding asset optimization, cost reductions and liquidity improvements. The year-over-year benefit of these actions, combined with lower losses from natural gas hedges, our expected results in over $100 million of EBITDA improvement.

在我們繼續應對持續低需求的環境時，我們一直積極主動地採取重大行動來提高盈利能力和現金生成能力，包括有關資產優化、降低成本和改善流動性的眾多舉措。這些行動的同比效益，加上天然氣對沖損失的減少，我們預計 EBITDA 改善將超過 1 億美元。

In addition to these improvements, the 2023 adjusted EBITDA outlook includes Q3 year-to-date unfavorable impacts of $22 million from net timing -- from declining raw materials and $14 million from fixed cost under absorption related to our inventory reduction actions. Therefore, we expect these tailwinds to result in significantly higher profitability in 2024.

除了這些改進之外，2023 年調整後EBITDA 前景還包括今年第三季迄今因原材料下降而產生的2,200 萬美元的淨時間不利影響，以及與我們的庫存削減行動相關的吸收固定成本帶來的1400 萬美元的不利影響。因此，我們預計這些有利因素將在 2024 年帶來顯著更高的獲利能力。

Now we're happy to take your questions.

現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) We'll go first this morning to Frank Mitsch at Fermium Research LLC.

（操作員說明）今天早上我們先去費米研究有限責任公司的弗蘭克米奇那裡。

Congrats on the refi. I want to drill a little bit more into the '24 expectation versus '23. You outlined a $100 million benefit from the cost actions that you've taken, the plant shutdowns as well as natural gas hedges. And so far this year, you had -- you mentioned the $14 million under-absorption from running your assets late. Of course, you got -- you also had another $15 million of unplanned outage. If I add this up, that $100 million that you're expecting something like $40 million less in terms of nat gas hedges impact. So that implies $60 million of benefit from the restructuring actions.

恭喜重新啟動。我想更深入地了解 24 年與 23 年的預期。您概述了從您採取的成本行動、工廠關閉以及天然氣對沖中獲得的 1 億美元收益。今年到目前為止，您提到了由於資產運行遲緩而導致 1400 萬美元的吸收不足。當然，您還遭受了另外 1500 萬美元的意外停機。如果我把這個加起來，那麼在天然氣對沖影響方面，您預計會減少 4000 萬美元左右的 1 億美元。因此，這意味著重組行動將帶來 6,000 萬美元的收益。

I believe you've previously said you expected like $70 million to $90 million of benefit from the restructuring actions. Are we just rounding here? Can you talk a little bit more about the bridge from '23 to '24 from some of these various noise items?

我相信您之前曾說過您預計重組行動將帶來 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元的收益。我們只是在這裡繞圈圈嗎？您能從這些不同的噪音項目中更多地談談從'23到'24的橋樑嗎？

Yes, Frank, I think the best way to look at it is to look at Slide 4 of the presentation deck, where we talk about the tailwinds. There's a little call-out box there that shows $100 million related to the asset and cost restructuring and natural gas hedges, the $22 million of unfavorable net timing, plus $14 million fixed cost under absorption. So I would say those are the tailwinds that we would go into next year with the benefit of.

是的，弗蘭克，我認為最好的了解方式是查看簡報的幻燈片 4，我們在其中討論了順風車。那裡有一個小標註框顯示與資產和成本重組以及天然氣對沖相關的 1 億美元，不利淨時機的 2,200 萬美元，加上吸收的 1,400 萬美元固定成本。所以我想說，這些都是我們明年要受益的順風車。

And again, I think Q3 is representative of the demand levels that we would expect to see in this environment as we bounce along at these levels. So a normalized Q3 plus those is probably a good way to think about it in this environment.

再說一遍，我認為第三季代表了我們在這種環境下預計會看到的需求水平，因為我們在這些水平上反彈。因此，標準化的第三季加上這些可能是在這種環境下思考它的好方法。

Got you, got you. You previously indicated like $70 million to $90 million just based on the restructuring actions from the plant shutdowns, et cetera. It looks like that $100 million includes that as well as the $40 million benefit from the nat gas. You're not implying that you're expecting the benefits to be less than that $70 million to $90 million that you've previously said. Are you?

得到你了，得到你了。您之前表示，僅根據工廠關閉等重組行動，就需要 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。看起來 1 億美元包括了這一點以及天然氣帶來的 4000 萬美元的收益。您並不是暗示您預期收益會低於您先前所說的 7,000 萬至 9,000 萬美元。你是？

No, Frank, this is Dave. No, the savings from the restructuring actions, you're right, $70 million to $90 million is the original range we gave and the amount is $75 million. So what we expect today to get out of that is $75 million. So the $100 million that Frank was referring to was in the slide. So it is the sum of that $75 million plus the natural gas savings.

不，法蘭克，這是戴夫。不，重組行動帶來的節省，你是對的，7000萬美元到9000萬美元是我們原來給的範圍，金額是7500萬美元。因此，我們今天預計能從中獲得 7500 萬美元。所以弗蘭克提到的 1 億美元就在幻燈片裡。因此，這是 7500 萬美元加上天然氣節省的總和。

Okay. It looks like it...

好的。看起來好像是…

Frank, we're getting some benefit from -- we're getting some partial benefit from some of these actions this year, right?

弗蘭克，我們從今年的一些行動中獲得了一些好處，對嗎？

Right. Okay. All right. So year-over-year...

正確的。好的。好的。所以逐年...

So you can't just -- yes, there is a portion of it that we're getting. For example, the corporate restructuring actions, those were in effect late in Q3. And so a portion of those we're going to get -- we've already gotten. So we'll only get the year-over-year benefit as a tailwind next year and that's what we've highlighted in that tail -- that call-out box.

所以你不能只是——是的，我們得到了其中的一部分。例如，公司重組行動於第三季末生效。因此，我們將要得到的一部分——我們已經得到了。因此，我們只會在明年獲得同比收益作為順風，這就是我們在尾部強調的內容 - 標註框。

All right. Very helpful. And then lastly, you mentioned that you're seeing a slowing of destocking. And I was wondering if you might be able to provide some color in terms of the end markets where you might be seeing that, whether it be building and construction, specialty paper packaging or whatever. Any color there on where you're seeing this slowing?

好的。很有幫助。最後，您提到去庫存速度正在放緩。我想知道你們是否能夠在終端市場方面提供一些色彩，無論是建築、特殊紙包裝或其他領域。您看到這種放緩的地方有什麼顏色嗎？

In the consumer electronics, we're seeing slowing -- we're seeing some slowing in the CASE applications, in Latex binders as well as in -- the -- well, automotive has been very steady. So that supply chain has been pretty resilient. I'd say with -- and also, we've seen a slowing in the white goods or consumer goods areas related to appliances, where we still see some destocking. Probably, the most pronounced destocking that's still ongoing is in kitchen and bath-type applications for various technologies. It's building and construction.

在消費性電子產品中，我們看到了成長放緩——我們看到 CASE 應用、乳膠黏合劑以及——嗯，汽車產業一直非常穩定。因此，供應鏈非常有彈性。我想說的是，我們也看到白色家電或與家電相關的消費品領域的成長放緩，但我們仍然看到一些去庫存的情況。也許，仍在進行的最明顯的庫存減少是在各種技術的廚房和浴室類應用中。這是建造和建造。

We'll go next now to David Begleiter at Deutsche Bank. .

接下來我們請德意志銀行的大衛‧貝格萊特 (David Begleiter) 發言。 。

Frank, do you have an update on the (inaudible) sale?

弗蘭克，您有（聽不清楚）銷售的最新情況嗎？

So David, we -- no real update. We continue to field questions from parties that are interested, but nothing is imminent.

大衛，我們——沒有真正的更新。我們繼續回答有興趣的各方提出的問題，但沒有什麼是迫在眉睫的。

Understood. And Dave, just on working capital, when volumes do come back to more normalized levels, how much rebuild do you think you'll need in working capital?

明白了。戴夫，就營運資金而言，當銷售確實恢復到更正常的水平時，您認為需要多少營運資金來重建？

Well, Dave, as I said in the prepared remarks, over 80% of the reduction this year is from days. So days of working capital that we've taken out -- and we've taken that out -- and we believe substantially all that is structural. We've taken out those days of working capital because of the systems and processes that we've implemented specifically around S&OP and in our new ERP system.

好吧，戴夫，正如我在準備好的演講中所說，今年超過 80% 的減少是在幾天內完成的。我們已經取出了幾天的營運資金——我們已經取出了——我們相信基本上所有這些都是結構性的。由於我們專門圍繞 S&OP 和新 ERP 系統實施了系統和流程，我們已經節省了這些天的營運資金。

So I think, look, prices -- price out of that is probably 15% or less. I think when prices do rise, that will likely be indicative of recovering environment. So we probably see higher EBITDA in that as well. But the vast majority of it, the remainder is days of inventory and days of other working capital that we think we've structurally taken out and don't think we need to add back.

所以我認為，看看價格——價格可能是 15% 或更少。我認為當價格確實上漲時，這可能表明環境正在復蘇。因此，我們可能也會看到更高的 EBITDA。但其中絕大多數，其餘的是庫存天數和其他營運資金天數，我們認為我們已經在結構上去除了這些天數，並且認為我們不需要重新添加。

The next now to Matthew Blair at TPH.

接下來是 TPH 的 Matthew Blair。

I was hoping you could help us a little bit on the EBITDA bridge from Q3 to Q4. I think midpoint EBITDA guidance only has Q4 moving up maybe about $5 million quarter-over-quarter. It seems like you would have some pretty considerable tailwinds from rolling off the feedstocks impact in Q3, $19 million, as well as it sounds like the nat gas headwind is effectively going to be about a $6 million tailwind. So is that the right way to think about it? And I guess the delta would be the increased seasonality as well as the benzene hit on the styrene margins?

我希望您能在第三季到第四季的 EBITDA 橋樑上為我們提供一些幫助。我認為，第四季 EBITDA 指導中位數僅比上一季成長約 500 萬美元。似乎你會從第三季的原料影響中獲得一些相當大的順風，1900萬美元，而且聽起來天然氣的逆風實際上將是約600萬美元的順風。那麼這是正確的思考方式嗎？我猜三角洲將是季節性的增加以及苯對苯乙烯利潤率的打擊？

Yes, I think that's a good way to think about it. We'll have some benefit as we outlined from styrene and from the actions we've taken and those will be somewhat muted in the results because of the -- we expect extended customer shutdowns during the year-end.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的思考方式。正如我們從苯乙烯和我們所採取的行動中概述的那樣，我們將獲得一些好處，但由於我們預計年底客戶停產時間會延長，因此結果會減弱。

And Matthew, just one other point. Look, Frank mentioned in his prepared remarks, but I think it's important that everybody understands. So our earnings, you mentioned benzene, right? Benzene -- the higher -- elevated benzene bringing pressure on styrene margins. And that is, in fact, happening. Now in the third quarter -- or excuse me, the fourth quarter we're seeing that in AmSty. AmSty has -- is going to have a lower performance in Q4 due to styrene margins.

馬修還有一點。弗蘭克在他準備好的演講中提到，但我認為每個人都理解這一點很重要。那麼我們的收益，你提到了苯，對吧？苯含量較高，苯含量升高對苯乙烯利潤率帶來壓力。事實上，這種情況正在發生。現在在第三季——或者對不起，第四季我們在 AmSty 看到了這一點。由於苯乙烯利潤率的原因，AmSty 在第四季度的業績將會下降。

But because we're no longer a styrene producer, higher benzene and styrene margins do not impact our results like they used to. So I know that's going to take some getting used to for us. But styrene margins really only affect us now in AmSty, not in our own results.

但由於我們不再是苯乙烯生產商，因此更高的苯和苯乙烯利潤不會像以前那樣影響我們的表現。所以我知道我們需要一些時間來適應。但苯乙烯利潤率現在實際上只影響我們 AmSty，而不是我們自己的表現。

Maybe just to add one more -- Sorry, go ahead and ask your question.

也許只是想再補充一個——抱歉，請繼續問你的問題。

Please go ahead, Frank.

請繼續，弗蘭克。

No, the other thing I just do want to point out is that the styrene contracts that we've negotiated begin in January of next year. We've secured the needs we have for the remainder of the year, largely through spot purchases on the market. So the timing for the contracts to kick in is January of next year.

不，我想指出的另一件事是，我們談判的苯乙烯合約將於明年 1 月開始。我們主要透過市場上的現貨採購來滿足今年剩餘時間的需求。因此，合約生效的時間是明年一月。

Got it. And then will feedstocks be -- will that still be around for Q4? Will that be a 0? Or will there still be some residual like negative EBITDA flowing through for feedstocks in Q4?

知道了。然後原料會在第四季仍然存在嗎？那會是0嗎？或者第四季是否還會有一些殘留物（例如負 EBITDA）流向原料？

It will be there in Q4, Matthew. We will still have a styrene reporting segment. It's not going to reflect the production of styrene and internal sales to our internal businesses. It will just reflect purchases of styrene that we make and internal transfers of that. Yes, so I wouldn't -- I don't expect it to be a -- because of that, I don't expect it to be a negative number in the fourth quarter.

它將在第四季度出現，馬修。我們仍將有苯乙烯報告部分。它不會反映苯乙烯的生產和我們內部業務的內部銷售。它僅反映我們購買的苯乙烯及其內部轉移。是的，所以我不會——我不希望它是——因此，我預計第四季度它不會是負數。

Got it. And then last question is, I believe the cash flow statement reflected $15 million or $16 million in the third quarter from proceeds from the sale of business and other assets. What -- can you remind us what that was for?

知道了。最後一個問題是，我認為現金流量表反映了第三季來自出售業務和其他資產的收益的 1,500 萬美元或 1,600 萬美元。什麼——你能提醒我們那是做什麼用的嗎？

That was -- it was kind of small immaterial sales of assets. It wasn't a business. It's kind of miscellaneous assets. It's not even worth the time on the call.

那是一種小型的非物質資產出售。這不是生意。這是一種雜項資產。甚至不值得花時間打電話。

We go next now to Michael Leithead at Barclays.

接下來我們請來巴克萊銀行的麥可‧萊特海德 (Michael Leithead)。

First, Frank, can you just speak to the intensity of lower-cost Asian imports across your portfolio? Is it getting better or worse relative to maybe earlier this year?

首先，弗蘭克，您能談談您的投資組合中低成本亞洲進口產品的強度嗎？與今年早些時候相比，情況是變得更好還是更糟？

Yes, I would say it's getting better, and that's because the cost differential between European production and Asian cost has decreased, but there's still a pronounced pressure due to the lack of capacity or the lack of -- or the free capacity and underutilization of assets in Asia. So there's still pressure from imports, and there still is a dislocation in cost between Europe and Asia.

是的，我想說情況正在好轉，這是因為歐洲生產和亞洲成本之間的成本差異已經縮小，但由於產能不足或缺乏——或自由產能和資產利用不足，仍然存在明顯的壓力在亞洲。因此，進口壓力仍然存在，歐洲和亞洲之間的成本錯位仍然存在。

I would say it's most pronounced in plastic solutions and in EM. And due to the nature of our latex binders business being a water-based products, it's least pronounced or most nonexistent there.

我想說它在塑膠解決方案和電子顯微鏡中最為明顯。由於我們的乳膠黏合劑業務的性質是水基產品，因此它在那裡最不明顯或幾乎不存在。

Great. That's super helpful. And then, Dave, after the recent refinancing, can you help us with what your current run rate annual cash interest is?

偉大的。這非常有幫助。然後，戴夫，在最近的再融資之後，您能幫我們了解一下您目前的年現金利率是多少嗎？

Yes. It's $235 million a year, Mike.

是的。每年 2.35 億美元，麥克。

We'll go next to Hassan Ahmed at Alembic Global Advisors.

接下來我們將採訪 Alembic Global Advisors 的哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)。

Guys, wanted to revisit some of the moving parts associated with the initial 2024 sort of guidance or bridge analysis you guys have given. Frank, you mentioned a good way to think about sort of run rate quarterly EBITDA is Q3 2023 levels, right? So I annualize that, and I come up with, call it, $164 million in EBITDA. Then you talked about the sort of tailwinds from asset and cost restructuring, which is another $75 million. The sort of nonpresence of the unfavorable timing impacts in '23, which is another $22 million and fixed costs under absorption, which is another $14 million.

夥計們，想要重新審視與你們給出的最初 2024 年指導或橋樑分析相關的一些活動部分。弗蘭克，您提到考慮季度 EBITDA 運行率的一個好方法是 2023 年第三季度的水平，對嗎？因此，我將其按年計算，得出 1.64 億美元的 EBITDA。然後您談到了資產和成本重組帶來的推動作用，即另外 7500 萬美元。 23 年不存在不利的時間影響，又增加了 2,200 萬美元，吸收了固定成本，又增加了 1,400 萬美元。

So you sum it up and you come to at least $274 million, $275 million in 2024 EBITDA. Am I right in assuming, first of all, that, that is the correct way of thinking about it? And of course, that does not factor in any sort of demand improvements and it doesn't factor in potentially the benefit from the new styrene contract. And am I thinking about this the right way?

所以你總結一下，2024 年的 EBITDA 至少為 2.74 億美元、2.75 億美元。首先，我的假設是正確的思考方式嗎？當然，這並沒有考慮到任何形式的需求改善，也沒有考慮到新苯乙烯合約的潛在好處。我思考這個問題的方式正確嗎？

So I guess let me play back to you how I would think about it or I've been thinking about it, and I think how we discussed it earlier when Frank asked the question. So if we take $41 million for Q3 and add back the $4 million timing, plus the negative impact from the styrene outage of $15 million, that gets us to about a $60 million run performance -- underlying performance in Q3. And from that, we have an additional tailwind of $100 million related to restructuring and natural gas hedges. So that's how I would think about it. Again, this -- we're not guiding yet. We'll guide in February. But sitting here today, that's how I would think about next year.

所以我想讓我向你們回放一下我會如何思考這個問題或我一直在思考這個問題，我想我們之前弗蘭克問這個問題時我們是如何討論的。因此，如果我們將第三季的4,100 萬美元計算在內，再加上400 萬美元的時間安排，再加上苯乙烯停駛帶來的1,500 萬美元的負面影響，那麼我們的運業績約為6 千萬美元，即第三季的基本業績。由此，我們還有與重組和天然氣對沖相關的 1 億美元額外推動力。這就是我的想法。再說一次，我們還沒有提供指導。我們將在二月提供指導。但今天坐在這裡，這就是我對明年的看法。

Fair enough. Fair enough. And just, again, trying to sort of understand the demand side of things with this massive destock that we've seen. Back, I believe, it was Q4 of '22 during the earnings call, you talked about how historically destockings lasted 2 quarters and the restock post those 2 sort of quarters of destocking historically had been quite impressive. Now here we are several quarters later with the destocking continuing. So I mean, should we expect after this level of destocking as and when it happens an equally impressive restocking?

很公平。很公平。再次嘗試透過我們所看到的大規模去庫存來了解需求方面的情況。我相信，那是22年第四季的財報電話會議，您談到了歷史上去庫存是如何持續兩個季度的，並且歷史上這兩個季度去庫存後的補貨相當令人印象深刻。現在幾個季度過去了，去庫存仍在繼續。所以我的意思是，在這種程度的去庫存之後，我們是否應該期待同樣令人印象深刻的補貨？

I -- we talked about this and I don't know what to expect going forward, to be honest with you, because I think that the chemical industry, in general, is at an inflection point that in my 40 years, I've not seen before with overcapacities in Asia, geopolitical effects, dislocations and costs. So it's hard for me to say what to expect going forward. Based on history, I would -- based on our prior experience, if history would repeat itself, we would say yes. But I'm not again, sitting here today, it's difficult to predict when and how that will happen or what it will look like.

我——我們討論過這個問題，老實說，我不知道未來會發生什麼，因為我認為化學工業總體上正處於一個拐點，在我 40 年來，我已經亞洲的產能過剩、地緣政治影響、錯位和成本是前所未有的。所以我很難說未來會發生什麼事。根據歷史，我會——根據我們之前的經驗，如果歷史重演，我們會說是的。但我今天坐在這裡，很難預測這種情況何時、如何發生，或會是什麼樣子。

We'll go next now to Laurence Alexander at Jefferies.

接下來我們請傑富瑞的勞倫斯‧亞歷山大 (Laurence Alexander) 發言。

Could you unpack the comments around extended shutdowns? Is that just in kind of the appliance industry? Or are you also seeing that in automotive? And are you thinking about it in terms of shutdowns starting earlier than normal? Or are you also concerned about them spilling over into January more than usual?

您能解開有關延長停工的評論嗎？這只是家電業的一種狀況嗎？或者您在汽車領域也看到了這一點？您是否正在考慮比正常情況更早開始關閉的問題？或者您是否也擔心它們會比平常更蔓延到一月份？

No. We think that the customers will be working -- managing working capital by reducing stocks through the year-end. And so their shutdowns will start earlier. And I would say this is across -- probably across the value chains. And again, if there's an exception, it's probably automotive.

不會。我們認為客戶會透過在年底前減少庫存來管理營運資金。因此他們的關閉將會更早開始。我想說，這可能是跨價值鏈的。再說一遍，如果有例外的話，那很可能是汽車產業。

And secondly, just in terms of the kind of the comp effects, if you take kind comps away your customers talked about their sense of underlying demand, is there at least a high confidence -- level of confidence that volumes are positive comparisons in Q2 year-over-year? Or are customers more nervous on the visibility...

其次，就競爭效應的類型而言，如果你把善良的競爭拿走，你的客戶談論他們對潛在需求的感覺，是否至少有很高的信心——相信第二季度的銷量是積極的比較-同比？或客戶對可見度更緊張......

Just to make sure I understand what the -- so I just want to make sure I understand, compared -- positive volume compared to Q2...

只是為了確保我理解什麼 - 所以我只是想確保我理解，與第二季度相比，積極的交易量...

Should -- when we think about the year-over-year cadence on volumes, should you be back in positive territory by Q2 of next year based on what your customers are saying? Or are they indicating too much uncertainty on demand trends? Just trying to think about the last thing of destock cycle?

當我們考慮銷售量的同比節奏時，根據客戶的說法，您是否應該在明年第二季之前回到正值？或者它們是否顯示需求趨勢存在太多不確定性？只是想想想去庫存週期的最後一件事？

Yes. So I would say, in general, we would see low single-digit demand improvement is the signal we're getting across the portfolio. So some improvement but not as Hassan asked a recovery, so low single-digit demand improvement, and it's -- it varies by specific segment when that will kick in. That's how I would think about it and how we're thinking about it right now.

是的。所以我想說，總的來說，我們會看到低個位數的需求改善是我們在整個投資組合中得到的訊號。所以有所改善，但不像哈桑要求的那樣復甦，如此低的個位數需求改善，而且，具體的細分市場何時開始有所不同。這就是我的想法，也是我們正確的想法現在。

And then just lastly on the recycled polycarbonates. You made a comment, if I heard properly, that will actually be cheaper than version polycarbonate. Do you have a sense -- is there a kind of structural gap like a rule of thumb as to just how much of an advantage you should have? And do your customers expect you to sort of split that with them so that they get a cheaper product? Or are they telling you that they would be willing to pay a premium like we see in other plastics and then you just get a healthier margin?

最後是回收的聚碳酸酯。你發表了評論，如果我沒聽錯的話，這實際上會比聚碳酸酯版本便宜。你是否有一種感覺——是否存在一種結構性差距，就像經驗法則一樣，決定了你應該擁有多少優勢？您的客戶是否希望您與他們分攤，以便他們獲得更便宜的產品？或者他們告訴您，他們願意像我們在其他塑料中看到的那樣支付溢價，然後您就可以獲得更健康的利潤？

Well, we would -- I would say, in general, we enjoy a premium in the recycled product based on the significant demand in many of our value chains for that type of product for helping our customers achieve their recycling and circularity goals. So I would expect to get a healthy return on these technologies as we market those back to our customers. From a cost standpoint, it will all depend on what feed we begin with.

嗯，我想說，總的來說，我們在回收產品中享有溢價，因為我們的許多價值鏈對此類產品的巨大需求，以幫助我們的客戶實現其回收和循環目標。因此，當我們將這些技術推銷給客戶時，我希望能夠從這些技術中獲得健康的回報。從成本的角度來看，這完全取決於我們從什麼飼料開始。

And I think what we tried to explain and what's unique about our technology is we can take a mix stream that would contain colors, other types of materials like metal, glass or other plastics, and we can extract the polycarbonate polymer from that and get to an almost purified virgin quality polycarbonate. So depending on the cost to get -- secure that feedstock, which in mixed waste, these are largely very inexpensive or previously been landfilled, we would expect to get a lower -- be able to produce at scale a lower cost than virgin. I don't know if that helps. It's difficult to quantify because it will all depend on what partnership we have with our end customer. And let me give you an example.

我認為我們試圖解釋的以及我們技術的獨特之處在於我們可以採用包含顏色、其他類型材料（如金屬、玻璃或其他塑膠）的混合流，我們可以從中提取聚碳酸酯聚合物並獲得幾乎純淨的原始品質聚碳酸酯。因此，根據所獲得的成本，確保原料的安全，在混合廢物中，這些原料基本上非常便宜或之前被填埋，我們期望獲得較低的成本，能夠以比原始成本更低的成本進行大規模生產。我不知道這是否有幫助。這很難量化，因為這完全取決於我們與最終客戶的合作關係。讓我舉個例子。

So we could take headlamps that our waste scrap by our customer might be end of life or could be low quality or off-grade from their production, and we can recycle it and return that material to them. So same thing. We think about an interior door panel from a car company. We actually have taken byproduct or scrap door panels from our existing customers and recycled it and made delivered back to them the polycarbonate that we've recycled and they've made virgin door panels and they meet their quality requirements.

因此，我們可以採取客戶廢棄的頭燈，這些廢料可能已經報廢，或者可能品質低劣或不合格，我們可以回收它並將該材料送回給他們。同樣的事情。我們考慮了一家汽車公司的內門板。實際上，我們從現有客戶那裡獲取了副產品或廢棄門板，並將其回收，然後將我們回收的聚碳酸酯返還給他們，他們製造了原始門板，並且滿足了他們的品質要求。

So it's -- we've done the same thing in consumer electronics. So we've yet to see the full potential of it. But we're very excited about it and early indications are that we have a significant demand from our customer base, and they're excited about partnering with us.

所以我們在消費性電子產品領域也做了同樣的事情。所以我們還沒有看到它的全部潛力。但我們對此感到非常興奮，早期跡象表明我們的客戶群有很大的需求，他們很高興與我們合作。

And ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude our question-and-answer session this morning. And we bring us to the end of this morning's conference call. Again, I would like to thank you all so much for joining the Trinseo Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call, and wish you all a great day. Goodbye.

女士們、先生們，我們今天早上的問答環節到此結束。今天上午的電話會議到此結束。我再次非常感謝大家參加盛禧奧 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議，並祝大家有個愉快的一天。再見。