Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Trinseo's third quarter 2025 financial results conference call. We welcome the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO, David Stasse, executive Vice President and CFO, and Bregje Roseboom-Van Kessel, senior Vice President and corporate finance and investor relations. Today's conference call will include brief remarks by management team followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release along with its presentation slides after close of market on Thursday, November 6th.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加Trinseo 2025年第三季財務業績電話會議。我們歡迎 Trinseo 管理團隊，包括總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich、執行副總裁兼財務長 David Stasse 以及高級副總裁兼企業財務和投資者關係負責人 Bregje Roseboom-Van Kessel。今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短發言，隨後是問答環節。該公司於11月6日星期四收盤後分發了新聞稿和簡報。

These documents are posted on the company's investor relations website and furnished on Form 8K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. If anyone should require operator assistance during the call, please press star, then 0 on your telephone. I will now hand the call over to Van Kessel. Please go ahead.

這些文件發佈在公司的投資者關係網站上，並以 8K 表格的形式提交給美國證券交易委員會。通話過程中如需接線生協助，請按星號鍵，再按電話上的0鍵。現在我將把電話交給範凱塞爾。請繼續。

Thank you, Kelvin, and hello everyone. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After our brief remarks, instructions will follow to participate in the question-and-answer session. Our disclosure rules and cautionary notes on forward-looking statements are noted on slide two. During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations. We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described, or implied in these statements.

謝謝你，凱爾文，大家好。目前，所有參與者均處於只聽模式。簡短發言結束後，我們將給予參與問答環節的說明。我們的揭露規則和關於前瞻性陳述的警示說明在第二張投影片中有所說明。在本次演講中，我們可能會做出一些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導意見和描述我們對未來的預期。我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。

Factors that could cause actual results to differing clues but are not limited to risk factors set forth in item 1A of our annual report on Form 10K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measurements. The reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation.

可能導致實際結果與預期結果不同的因素，但不限於我們在 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。本公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性聲明的義務。今天的報告包含一些非GAAP財務指標。這些指標與相應的 GAAP 指標的核對情況已在我們的獲利報告和投資者簡報的附錄中提供。

The replay of the conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's investor relations website shortly following the conference call. The replay will be available until November 7, 2026. Now I would like to turn the call over to Frank.

電話會議結束後不久，會議錄音和文字記錄將存檔在公司投資者關係網站上。重播影片將保留至2026年11月7日。現在我想把電話交給弗蘭克。

Thanks Vee and welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call.

謝謝Vee，歡迎參加我們2025年第三季財報電話會議。

I'd like to begin by sharing some information on trade flows in our chemistries as we believe this is instructive for understanding how the end markets we serve have reacted to tariff uncertainties.

首先，我想分享一些關於我們化學品貿易流動的信息，因為我們認為這有助於了解我們所服務的終端市場對關稅不確定性的反應。

We've included some of this information on slide four of our presentation materials.

我們在簡報資料的第四張投影片中包含了部分此類資訊。

In general, we saw a sharp increase in imports of Asian polymers to both the US and Europe beginning in Q1.

總體而言，從第一季開始，我們看到亞洲聚合物對美國和歐洲的進口量急劇增加。

We believe this was a reaction to the threatened tariff levels that ultimately were announced in early April and an attempt to fill supply chains in the US ahead of the tariffs being implemented and a redirection of trade flows to Europe from Asia because of slowing demand in China.

我們認為這是對最終在 4 月初宣布的關稅威脅水準的回應，也是為了在關稅實施之前填補美國的供應鏈空缺，同時由於中國需求放緩，貿易流向也從亞洲轉向歐洲。

With respect to the US on the slide forward, you can clearly see a significant increase in imports of ABS primarily from Asian producers beginning in the first quarter to get ahead of the tariff implementation.

從美國的情況來看，從第一季開始，美國主要從亞洲生產商進口ABS產品，以搶在關稅實施之前搶佔先機，這顯然是一個顯著的增長。

Exports from the US of both ABS and PMMA decreased versus prior year, and the decrease was most pronounced in the exports to Canada and Mexico.

與前一年相比，美國ABS和PMMA的出口量均有所下降，其中對加拿大和墨西哥的出口下降最為明顯。

Similar dynamic occurred in Europe where Asian material that is typically consumed in China was redirected to the European market, putting margin pressure on the more standard grades of ABS and PMMA.

歐洲也出現了類似的動態，原本在中國消費的亞洲材料被轉移到歐洲市場，給更標準的ABS和PMMA等級產品帶來了利潤壓力。

These industry trade flow dynamics continued into the third quarter, resulting in lower volumes versus prior year but similar volumes quarter over quarter.

這些行業貿易流動動態延續到了第三季度，導致銷量較上年同期有所下降，但環比銷量基本持平。

Whether these new levels of demand are transitory or structural remains to be seen. However, late in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter, we are seeing an increased run rate of sales over more formulated, higher margin products that is higher than the year-to-date, the year-to-date average and prior year levels. In the case of our more formulated PMMA resins, the year over year increase in volumes was over 10% beginning in late Q3, and this has continued into Q4.

這些新的需求水準是暫時的還是結構性的，還有待觀察。然而，在第三季末和第四季度，我們看到配方更完善、利潤更高的產品的銷售運行率有所提高，高於今年迄今為止的水平、今年迄今為止的平均水平以及去年同期水平。對於我們配方更完善的 PMMA 樹脂而言，從第三季末開始，銷量較去年同期成長超過 10%，而這一趨勢一直延續到第四季。

We do believe there is a drive to reshore demand even at slight premiums to the import parity price to de-risk longer Asian supply chains and address potential tariff impacts in both Europe and the US.

我們相信，即使價格略高於進口平價，也存在將需求遷回國內的動力，以降低亞洲較長供應鏈的風險，並應對歐洲和美國可能出現的關稅影響。

Concerning our focus on sustainability, I want to highlight the fact that the European Parliament finalized its vehicle End of Life Directive in September.

關於我們對永續發展的關注，我想強調的是，歐洲議會已在 9 月最終確定了車輛報廢指令。

This mandates that new vehicles must contain 20% recycled plastic within 6 years, 15% of which must come from end of life vehicles.

該規定要求新車必須在 6 年內含有 20% 的再生塑料，其中 15% 必須來自報廢車輛。

And this increases to 25% within 10 years.

10 年內，這一比例將上升至 25%。

This action formalizes the EU's drive for greater product supply chain circularity.

此舉正式確立了歐盟推動產品供應鏈循環利用的決心。

We have remained committed to pursuing investments to scale up our technology for our circular, recycled content containing platforms and expect these regulations to drive demand in the near term.

我們一直致力於尋求投資，以擴大我們循環利用、再生材料平台的技術規模，並預計這些法規將在短期內推動需求。

Our pilot plants for recycled polycarbonate, ABS, and the MMA are sold out. The volumes are still small, but will become more meaningful as we ramp up.

我們的再生聚碳酸酯、ABS 和 MMA 的試驗工廠已全部售罄。雖然目前數量還很少，但隨著我們逐步擴大規模，這些數量將變得更有意義。

Year-to-date, our recycled content containing plastic sales grew 2% across all applications, with our recycled solutions and engineered materials growing at 12%.

今年迄今為止，我們所有應用領域中含有再生塑膠的銷售額成長了 2%，其中再生解決方案和工程材料的銷售額成長了 12%。

Before I hand the call over to Dave, let me comment on our press release from the 6th of October in which we announced the discontinuation of Virgin MMA production in Italy and the intention to close our polystyrene production facility in Germany.

在將電話交給戴夫之前，我想就我們 10 月 6 日發布的新聞稿發表一些看法，我們在新聞稿中宣布停止在意大利生產 Virgin MMA，並打算關閉我們在德國的聚苯乙烯生產設施。

We took this difficult decision after carefully considering our options and the impact on our employees. However, it is clear to us that these assets will not be competitive in the long-term. Our Rote Italy site will remain focused on PMMA resin production and will also be the site for our investments in recycled MMA.

經過仔細考慮各種方案以及對員工的影響，我們做出了這個艱難的決定。然而，我們很清楚，這些資產長期來看將不具備競爭力。我們在義大利羅特的工廠將繼續專注於PMMA樹脂的生產，同時也將是我們投資再生MMA的基地。

Pending Works council negotiations in Germany. These projects should lead to $30 million of EBITDA improvement next year, and the cash savings will exceed restructuring costs beginning in 2026.

德國正在進行勞資委員會談判。這些項目明年應該能帶來 3000 萬美元的 EBITDA 改善，並且從 2026 年開始，節省的現金將超過重組成本。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

現在我想把電話交給戴夫。

Thanks, Frank. We ended the third quarter with $30 million of adjusted EBITA, which was impacted by $9 million of unfavorable raw material timing. And negative equity affiliate earnings from America's Styrenics.

謝謝你，弗蘭克。第三季末，我們調整後的 EBITA 為 3,000 萬美元，其中 900 萬美元受到不利的原料到貨時間的影響。以及來自美國 Styrenics 公司的負資產附屬公司收益。

Due to an $8 million headwind from repair and other costs related to an unplanned outage that occurred in June.

由於 6 月發生的非計劃性停電造成的維修和其他相關費用高達 800 萬美元，這帶來了不利影響。

At the segment level, engineered materials adjusted EBITDA was flat versus prior year as fixed cost improvements and slightly higher volumes than PMMA resin for building and construction and automotive applications were offset by lower volumes in medical.

從業務板塊來看，工程材料調整後的 EBITDA 與上年持平，固定成本的改善以及建築和汽車應用領域 PMMA 樹脂銷量略高於上年同期水平，但被醫療領域銷量的下降所抵消。

On medical sales, I want to remind you that we reported increased sales last year related to the closure of our Stod polycarbonate site and customers stocking up prior to the shutdown.

關於醫療器材銷售，我想提醒各位，去年我們報告的銷售額成長與 Stod 聚碳酸酯工廠關閉以及客戶在停產前囤貨有關。

Latex Binders adjusted EBITA was $9 million below prior year, mainly driven by lower volume in Europe, paper and board applications, as well as significant pricing pressure in Europe and Asia.

乳膠黏合劑調整後的息稅前利潤比前一年減少了 900 萬美元，主要原因是歐洲銷售下降、紙張和紙板應用領域銷售下降，以及歐洲和亞洲市場價格面臨巨大壓力。

Our higher margin targeted growth platforms in case and battery binders continue to outperform the market.

我們在機殼和電池裝訂器領域利潤率更高的目標成長平台繼續跑贏大盤。

Sales volume and battery binders were up 27% versus prior year for the quarter as we continue to enhance our portfolio, including new customer wins and anode binder applications. We're currently working closely with 5 of the 15 largest lithium-ion battery producers in the world.

本季電池黏合劑的銷​​售和銷售額比去年同期成長了 27%，這得益於我們不斷增強產品組合，包括贏得新客戶和陽極黏合劑應用。我們目前正與全球15家最大的鋰離子電池生產商中的5家密切合作。

Lastly, polymer Solutions adjusted EBITDA was $19 million below prior year, driven by $9 million of unfavorable timing.

最後，聚合物解決方案調整後的 EBITDA 比前一年減少了 1,900 萬美元，其中 900 萬美元是不利的時機因素造成的。

Lower ABS volumes and unfavorable mix related to the closure of our polycarbonate plant.

由於聚碳酸酯工廠關閉，ABS產量下降，產品組合不利。

Third quarter free cash flow was negative $38 million and we ended the third quarter with $346 million of available liquidity.

第三季自由現金流為負 3,800 萬美元，第三季末我們擁有 3.46 億美元的可用流動資金。

The fourth quarter is typically our seasonally strongest quarter for free cash flow due to a working capital release.

由於營運資金的釋放，第四季通常是我們自由現金流最強勁的季度。

We expect our free cash flow in the fourth quarter to be positive $20 million and our year-end liquidity to be over $350 million.

我們預計第四季自由現金流為正2,000萬美元，年末流動資金將超過3.5億美元。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Frank.

現在我把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝你，戴夫。

Looking forward, we expect fourth quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA roughly $30million to $40 million and as Dave mentioned, positive free cash flow of $20 million.

展望未來，我們預計 2025 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 約為 3,000 萬美元至 4,000 萬美元，正如 Dave 所提到的，自由現金流為 2,000 萬美元。

This forecast assumes a continuation of the year-to-date market dynamics and a somewhat exaggerated seasonal year-end effect, as well as $5million to $10 million of negative raw material timing.

該預測假設今年迄今的市場動態將持續，並且年底的季節性影響將被誇大，此外，原材料到貨時間也將受到 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的負面影響。

We will remain intensely focused on what's under our control, including improving our free cash flow in the short and long-term through continued inventory management, restructuring activities, and other actions.

我們將繼續高度專注於我們能夠控制的事情，包括透過持續的庫存管理、重組活動和其他措施來改善我們短期和長期的自由現金流。

Additionally, we continue to believe that there are at least 5 triggers that could improve the demand environment. First, trade certainty in any form would improve consumer confidence and provide a landscape for new investments.

此外，我們仍然認為至少有 5 個觸發因素可以改善需求環境。首先，任何形式的貿易確定性都會提高消費者信心，並為新的投資創造環境。

Second, a continuation of Federal Reserve interest rates, interest rate cuts which will lower our own interest expense and improve demand for housing and consumer durables.

其次，聯準會將繼續維持利率不變，降低利率，這將降低我們自身的利息支出，並改善對住房和耐用消費品的需求。

Third, a resolution of the conflict in Ukraine.

第三，解決烏克蘭衝突。

Fourth is a rationalization of higher costs, less environmentally sound chemical assets in Asia. And lastly, stronger support for the EU chemical industry as outlined in the EU Chemical Industry Action Plan.

第四，要合理化亞洲成本較高、環境友善性較差的化工資產。最後，要依照歐盟化學工業行動計畫的概述，加強對歐盟化學工業的支持力度。

Thank you, and now we're happy to take your questions.

謝謝，現在我們很樂意回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Alex Kelsey of Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的亞歷克斯·凱爾西。

Hey everybody, thanks for hosting the call and taking the question. I wanted to start with slide four on the trade flows. I think one of the dynamics we've seen among another a number of chemical companies is just structurally higher imports of China products into Western markets that's just structurally depressed. Pricing and influence demand. So I'm just curious, is it your view that this is transitory in nature, truly just getting ahead of tariffs, or are you seeing just a structural difference in how China is behaving with regard to your markets?

大家好，感謝各位主持電話會議並回答問題。我想先從第四張關於貿易流動的幻燈片開始。我認為我們看到許多化學企業面臨的一個問題是，中國產品大量進口到西方市場，而西方市場本身卻處於結構性低迷狀態。定價和影響需求。所以我很好奇，你認為這只是暫時的，真的只是為了搶在關稅生效前採取行動，還是你認為中國在對待你們市場方面存在結構性差異？

So we, yeah, thanks for the question. Actually, the, we don't know whether it's structural or transitory. It's too early to tell, as we said in the prepared comments, but I would tell you that the in our chemistries, the biggest I guess the More problematic dynamics. So the countries that are we're seeing the most increase in inflows are actually Taiwan and Korea.

是的，謝謝你的提問。實際上，我們並不清楚這是結構性的還是暫時性的。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，現在下結論還為時過早，但我可以告訴你，在我們化學領域，最大的問題在於更棘手的動態。因此，我們看到流入人口增幅最大的國家實際上是台灣和韓國。

And in our chemistries, we believe that, those their domestic markets don't support the significant capacity that's been built over the years and in where they used to have an outlet to supply China, that volume or that surplus capacity is now being redirected to Europe and North America.

我們認為，就我們的化學工業而言，這些國家的國內市場無法支撐多年來建立的龐大產能，而且他們過去曾向中國供應產品，但現在這些剩餘產能正被重新分配到歐洲和北美。

And I would point out that at least our analysis would indicate that those are higher cost assets in these chemistries.

我還要指出，至少我們的分析表明，這些化學物質是成本較高的資產。

The other thing I would point out that's problematic from a trade flow standpoint is the use of using imports of resin produced in China and Korea into Mexico that can be compounded, relatively lightly compounded locally and then brought into the US under the USMCA tariff convention.

我還想指出，從貿易流動的角度來看，存在一個問題，那就是使用從中國和韓國進口的樹脂到墨西哥，這些樹脂可以在當地進行混合，相對來說混合程度較低，然後根據美墨加協定（USMCA）關稅協定運往美國。

Tariff free. Now our understanding is from our trade associations and our discussions that this sort of pathway or loophole in the USMCA is a goal to be closed by the administration, but it would that would be helpful in our value chains.

免關稅。根據我們行業協會和討論，我們了解到，美國政府的目標是堵上美墨加協定中的這類漏洞或途徑，但這對我們的價值鏈是有益的。

And that's where Chinese products, we see more of the impact of Chinese flow into Mexico.

而正是在這裡，我們看到了中國產品對墨西哥的影響。

Do you have any perspective of like within TMMA and ABS, maybe this is a tricky one, but you know how much of the market Taiwan slash Korea slash China represents today versus I don't know, 12 months ago, 24 months ago, whatever the right time frame might be.

您對TMMA和ABS內部的情況有什麼看法嗎？也許這個問題比較棘手，但您知道台灣、韓國和中國如今的市場份額與12個月前、24個月前，或者任何合適的時間段相比分別是多少嗎？

Well, I can't precisely answer what share of the market that they represent, but what I would tell you is that the import volumes on, for example, the percentage increase in imports to, for example, from into Europe from South Korea. In the first half of 2025 was up 18% over prior year, and in Q2, it went up to 26% increase over prior year.

我無法準確回答它們佔市場份額的多少，但我可以告訴你的是，例如，進口量，例如從韓國進口到歐洲的進口量的增長百分比。2025 年上半年較上年成長 18%，第二季較上年成長 26%。

They are by far the biggest importer of ABS into Europe. In the case of PMMA imports from South Korea were up marginally in the first half into Europe, but in the case of imports into the US the biggest increase in imports came from South Korea and Taiwan for ABS, where, it was approximately 23% increase, but then Mexican products increased 75%. So that was that pathway that we were talking about. Now I want to point out though that remember we make mass ABS.

他們是迄今為止歐洲最大的ABS進口商。上半年，韓國向歐洲進口的 PMMA 略有成長；而就美國進口而言，增幅最大的是來自韓國和台灣的 ABS 產品，增幅約為 23%，而墨西哥產品的增幅則高達 75%。這就是我們之前討論的那條路徑。不過我想指出的是，請記住我們大量生產ABS塑膠。

And these are basic, generally basic grade or standard grade polymers that are coming in under these conventions that are more broadly used and the less specified or formulated products.

這些是基本的、一般的基本級或標準級聚合物，它們按照這些約定俗成的更廣泛使用的產品和規格較少或配方較少的產品進行分類。

Got it. Okay. And then on the or on the PMMA comment, the formulated PMMA comment, I thought the commentary about seeing sequential ramp in the Q4 was positive. One has just something changed in that market from a supply or demand dynamic to suggest we're at trough and rising off trough levels. And then within the EM segment, like what percentage of that is, air quotes formulated PMMA.

知道了。好的。至於 PMMA 的評論，或者說，關於 PMMA 的正式評論，我認為關於在第四季度看到連續增長的評論是積極的。市場供需動態發生了一些變化，這表明我們正處於低谷，並且正在從低谷水平回升。然後，在 EM 領域，PMMA 的佔比是多少？ （此處原文疑似有誤，無法翻譯）

So, Yeah, I think it's too early to, we don't know that the market dynamic is changing necessarily. It's too early to tell, and it, like I said, this is a late Q3, early Q4 dynamic that we observed and we're watching it and trying to understand it.

所以，是的，我認為現在下結論還為時過早，我們還不能確定市場動態是否一定會改變。現在下結論還為時過早，而且，就像我說的，這是我們在第三季末、第四季初觀察到的動態，我們正在密切關注並試圖了解它。

We believe that there is, an effort on behalf of many of the customers in North America and Europe to de-risk their supply chain, from a complexity standpoint and also, with regard to potential tariffs or trade barriers in North America and Europe. So I guess at this point that's where we watching it, but it, again, it was good to see that increase over prior years.

我們認為，北美和歐洲的許多客戶都在努力降低其供應鏈的風險，既包括降低供應鏈複雜性的風險，也包括降低北美和歐洲潛在的關稅或貿易壁壘的風險。所以我想目前我們就是在關注這個方面，但再次強調，很高興看到比往年有所成長。

And then that second question that I asked in terms of however you want to define it like what percentage of revenue slash EBITA slash volume in Em would you define as formulated.

然後，我問的第二個問題是，無論你想如何定義它，例如在 Em 中，你會將收入/EBITA/銷售的百分比定義為公式化。

Yeah, I wouldn't disclose that, specifically it's a material part of our Em segment and but I, we wouldn't share that information, generally.

是的，我不會透露，特別是這是我們Em部門的重要組成部分，但我們通常不會分享這類資訊。

Okay. And then on AST, I have one question, maybe accounting related, but if the shutdown unplanned maintenance was taken in Q2, I'm curious why there's an impact on Q3 EBITA.

好的。關於 AST，我有一個問題，可能與會計有關，但如果停產非計劃維護是在第二季度進行的，我很好奇為什麼會對第三季的 EBITA 產生影響。

And then more generically, can you just talk about, what's being done with an ASTI to sort of right size that business, just given how underperforming it's been this year.

更一般地說，您能否談談，鑑於 ASTI 今年的業績如此糟糕，為了調整該業務的規模，正在採取哪些措施？

So, the unplanned outage occurred at the end of the second quarter, in June, but, and it was related to this, to, the production of styrene, so what that forces in, which is obviously upstream to polystyrene, so what they have to do then is go out and buy styrene obviously at a cost higher than what they can make it for, and those increase that increase. Cost of goods sold in this case, goes through the P&L in the second in the third quarter, right? So there's a, so there's both repair costs that are included in the, so the total impact for the year for AST was $10 million, or excuse me, the total impact to our equity income was $10 million, $2 million of it was in June, and $8 million of it was in the third quarter. And the composition of that is both the cost of repair but also the higher cost raw materials from the styrene that they had to buy going through the P&L.

因此，計劃外停產發生在第二季末，也就是 6 月份，但這與苯乙烯的生產有關，這顯然是聚苯乙烯的上游環節，所以他們不得不去購買苯乙烯，而苯乙烯的成本顯然高於他們自己生產的成本，這導致生產成本上升。在這種情況下，銷售成本會計入第二季或第三季的損益表，對嗎？所以，維修費用包含在內，因此，AST 全年的總影響為 1000 萬美元，或者更準確地說，對我們權益收入的總影響為 1000 萬美元，其中 200 萬美元發生在 6 月份，800 萬美元發生在第三季度。其中既包括維修成本，也包括他們不得不購買的苯乙烯等成本較高的原料，這些都計入損益表。

So, it look, it related to the second question about what are we doing to right size it? I mean, look, I don't think we're doing, I don't think anything is necessary to right size the business. They've got two styrene units, that are very competitively positioned on the global cost curve for Styrene.

所以，這似乎與第二個問題有關，即我們正在採取什麼措施來調整它的大小？我的意思是，你看，我不認為我們正在做的，我不認為有必要採取任何措施來調整公司的規模。他們擁有兩套苯乙烯裝置，在全球苯乙烯成本曲線上具有非常強的競爭力。

70% of the styrene they produce, they consume internally in polystyrene downstream, and the other 30% goes into the merchant market, but again, they're on the left side of the cost curve. So look, I don't think there's anything necessary to do there from a right sizing perspective. Clearly styrene is long globally. I mean there's, it's widely exited our European plants.

他們生產的苯乙烯有 70% 會用於下游聚苯乙烯的生產，其餘 30% 則進入商品市場，但即便如此，他們仍然處於成本曲線的左側。所以你看，從規模調整的角度來看，我認為沒有必要做任何事。顯然，苯乙烯在全球都是長期供應的商品。我的意思是，它已經廣泛退出了我們歐洲的工廠。

So styrene margins are lower, a lot lower than they used to be, but I don't think a necessary step there, is going to be any, capacity rationalization.

所以苯乙烯的利潤率降低了，比以前低了很多，但我認為沒有必要採取任何措施，例如產能合理化。

Okay, that's helpful. And then last one for me, if we like when we were entering 2025, and I understand things have changed, the expectation was, flat volume kind of started us at $200 million-ish of EBITDA plus cost saves got us to something closer to 300 if I'm remembering correctly. I know it's probably early on 2026, but again, it feels like we're lower for longer, maybe troughing, but if you kind of take some of that same analogy, where the business is forecasted to be at the end of 2025, like all else equal in like an up 10% in volume and volume environment down 10% flat, any range of outcomes for what we could think about for 2026.

好的，這很有幫助。最後，我想說的是，當我們展望 2025 年的時候（我知道情況已經改變了），當時的預期是，銷量持平，EBITDA 大約為 2 億美元，加上成本節約，如果我沒記錯的話，EBITDA 可以接近 3 億美元。我知道現在可能才 2026 年初，但感覺我們可能會在低位停留更長時間，也許已經觸底了，但如果你用同樣的類比，假設業務在 2025 年底的預測情況，比如在其他條件相同的情況下，銷量增長 10% 或銷量下降 10%，那麼我們可以考慮 2026 年可能出現的任何結果範圍。

So yeah, maybe let me tackle the last thing first. So we've said this consistently that you know a at 10% volume increase across the portfolio results in about $100 million of EBITDA and so, again we're not prepared to talk about, we don't have a view on 2026 or prepared to give any guidance for 2026, but I think it might be helpful to go back to how we were as we entered the year how we thought about it and our expectation for significant increase was really in 2025/24 was driven by five factors. One was stable volume. Number two was the disposition, the sale of our polycarbonate assets to DAC.

所以，或許我應該先處理最後一件事。因此，我們一直強調，投資組合銷量成長 10% 將帶來約 1 億美元的 EBITDA。所以，我們再次重申，我們不准備談論 2026 年，我們對 2026 年沒有看法，也不準備給予任何指導。但我認為，回顧一下我們年初的想法或許會有幫助。我們當時預期 2025/24 年將顯著成長，這主要由以下五個因素驅動。一是體積穩定。第二件事是資產處置，即將我們的聚碳酸酯資產出售給 DAC。

The known business wins that we had as well as, a more normalized earnings from AST as well as the cost savings initiatives that we announced last year. What I would tell you is that we got the known business wins or the incremental business wins in our downstream markets. Delivered the cost savings and we executed on the DPEC sale where we've had a shortfall versus our expectation was on the more normalized earnings from AST and then the volume development that occurred, what we would attribute to really global tariff uncertainty. So.

我們已經取得了一些已知的業務成功，此外，AST 的收益也更加正常化，而且我們去年還宣布了成本節約計劃。我想告訴你們的是，我們在下游市場取得了已知的業務成功或逐步的業務成功。我們實現了成本節約，並完成了 DPEC 銷售，但我們的預期與 AST 更正常的收益以及銷量成長相比有所下降，我們認為這是由於全球關稅的不確定性造成的。所以。

Again, I think what's in our control we've done a good job of managing, but you know that's sort of how this year developed and again, too premature, it's premature for us to give you guidance for next year.

再次強調，我認為我們能夠控制的事情，我們都處理得很好。但是，你也知道，今年的情況就是這樣發展的，所以現在就對明年的情況給出指導意見還為時過早。

There are no further questions at this time, and with that, ladies and gentlemen, concludes today's call. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

目前沒有其他問題了，女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開線路了。