Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo first quarter 2025 financial results conference call. We welcome the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Bee Van Kessel, Senior Vice President, Corporate Finance and Investor Relations.

女士們、先生們，早安，歡迎參加 Trinseo 2025 年第一季財務業績電話會議。我們歡迎 Trinseo 管理團隊，總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich、執行副總裁兼財務長 David Stasse 和企業財務與投資者關係高級副總裁 Bee Van Kessel。

Today's conference call will include brief remarks by the management team, followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release along with its presentation slides after close of market on Wednesday, May 7. These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions)

今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短發言，然後是問答環節。該公司於 5 月 7 日星期三收盤後發布了新聞稿和簡報幻燈片。這些文件發佈在公司的投資者關係網站上，並以提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格形式提供。（操作員指示）

I will now hand the call over to Bee van Kessel.

現在我將把電話交給 Bee van Kessel。

Thank you, Greg, and hello, everyone. (Operator Instructions) After our brief remarks, instructions will follow to participate in the question-and-answer session.

謝謝你，格雷格，大家好。（操作員指示）在我們簡短發言之後，將會按照指示參與問答環節。

Our disclosure rules and cautionary notes on forward-looking statements are noted on slide 2. During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations. We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described, or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, risk factors set forth in Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements.

我們的揭露規則和前瞻性陳述的警告說明在第 2 張投影片中註明。在本次演示中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導和描述我們對未來的期望。我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的結果有重大差異。可能導致實際結果不同的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。

Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP financial measurements. A reconciliation of these measurements to the corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation.

今天的演示包括某些非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的收益報告和投資者報告附錄中提供了這些指標與相應的 GAAP 指標的對帳。

A replay of the conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's Investor Relations website shortly following the conference call. The replay will be available until May 8, 2026.

電話會議的重播和記錄將在電話會議結束後不久存檔在公司的投資者關係網站上。重播將持續到 2026 年 5 月 8 日。

Now, I would like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

現在，我想將電話轉給 Frank Bozich。

Thanks, Bee, and welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Core business results in the first quarter were in line with expectations and sequentially higher due to seasonality and prior quarter customer destocking. Despite persistent market weakness, the first quarter was Trinseo's seventh consecutive quarter of improved year-over-year adjusted EBITDA improvement, driven by various management actions we took early in this industry downturn.

謝謝，Bee，歡迎參加我們 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。第一季核心業務業績符合預期，且由於季節性因素和上一季客戶去庫存的影響，業績環比成長。儘管市場持續疲軟，但第一季是盛禧奧連續第七個季度實現調整後 EBITDA 同比增長，這得益於我們在行業低迷初期採取的各種管理措施。

Against the backdrop of trade uncertainty and lower consumer confidence, our adjusted EBITDA improved to $65 million. This is up $20 million versus prior year as a result of restructuring actions we've taken, improved business mix, and the polycarbonate licensing agreement we previously announced. Our focus has been on executing actions aligned to our transformation strategy and driving growth in areas that represent opportunities in any business environment.

在貿易不確定性和消費者信心下降的背景下，我們的調整後 EBITDA 提高至 6500 萬美元。由於我們採取的重組措施、改善的業務組合以及我們先前宣布的聚碳酸酯許可協議，這一數字比去年增加了 2000 萬美元。我們的重點是執行符合轉型策略的行動，並推動任何商業環境中代表機會的領域的成長。

The levers we possess to continue growing our more specialized technologies are specifically related to geographic expansion, material replacement, process change, and sustainability. With this focus, in the first quarter, we grew our volume in recycled content-containing products by 33% over prior year, consumer electronic applications by 43%, PMMA resin volumes in Asia more than doubled, and case volumes grew by 3% in a flat demand environment.

我們繼續發展更專業化技術的槓桿具體與地理擴張、材料替代、工藝變化和可持續性有關。基於這一重點，在第一季度，我們的含再生成分產品產量較上年同期增長了 33%，消費電子應用產量增長了 43%，亞洲的 PMMA 樹脂產量增長了一倍多，在需求持平的環境下，箱體產量增長了 3%。

Last year, we announced our proprietary asset and technology license deal with Deepak Chem Tech, and with the recognition of $26 million in licensing income in Q1 this year, I'm pleased to say the projects are on track and delivering in line with their expectations. In total, we estimate these projects are worth $52 million. As our two companies work together, we continue to view this agreement as mutually beneficial and see this as the initial steps of a strategic and collaborative partnership in India.

去年，我們宣布與 Deepak Chem Tech 達成專有資產和技術許可協議，今年第一季我們確認了 2,600 萬美元的授權收入，我很高興地說，這些項目正在按計劃進行，並符合他們的預期。總的來說，我們估計這些項目的價值為 5,200 萬美元。隨著我們兩家公司的合作，我們繼續將這項協議視為互惠互利的協議，並將其視為在印度建立戰略合作夥伴關係的初步舉措。

Before I turn the call over to Dave, I'd also like to talk a bit about China as a growth market. We'll cover tariffs later on. While we believe India will be a broad growth opportunity for us, in China, we have been more focused on our more specialized products in our portfolio. For the last couple of years, the team has been working to grow our more specialty PMMA products, and these efforts are starting to pay off. That plus our sustainable solutions for consumer electronics are important growth drivers for us in China. Combined in Q1, they delivered 50% volume growth versus prior year, and we are adding resources for further growth.

在我將電話轉給戴夫之前，我還想談談中國作為一個成長型市場的情況。我們稍後會討論關稅。雖然我們相信印度將為我們帶來廣闊的成長機會，但在中國，我們更專注於我們產品組合中更專業的產品。在過去的幾年裡，團隊一直致力於開發更專業的 PMMA 產品，這些努力開始獲得回報。再加上我們針對消費性電子產品的永續解決方案，是我們在中國市場的重要成長動力。在第一季度，他們的銷量比去年同期成長了 50%，我們正在增加資源以實現進一步成長。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave.

現在我想把電話轉給戴夫。

Thanks, Frank. I'd like to give a little more color on the first quarter and what we're seeing in the early part of Q2. (technical difficulty) was higher than prior year, despite lower volumes sold into automotive and building and construction applications. This was more than offset by higher margins for moderating input costs, particularly natural gas in Europe, as well as better sales mix.

謝謝，弗蘭克。我想對第一季以及我們在第二季初期看到的情況做更多的說明。儘管汽車和建築應用領域的銷售量較低，但技術難度高於去年同期。但這一增長被因降低投入成本（尤其是歐洲的天然氣）而獲得的更高利潤以及更好的銷售組合所抵消。

Latex Binders adjusted EBITDA was similar to prior year, despite lower volume. Most of this volume decline was into paper and board applications in China, where we've seen demand weaken considerably since the tariff announcements. Offsetting this was improved mix with higher sales in case and battery, as well as benefits from our cost savings initiatives.

儘管銷量較低，但乳膠黏合劑調整後的 EBITDA 與上年相似。銷量下降的主要原因是中國的紙張和紙板應用，自關稅公告發布以來，我們看到中國的需求大幅減弱。抵銷這項影響的是產品組合的改善，即機殼和電池的銷售額增加，以及成本節約措施帶來的好處。

Lastly, Polymer Solutions adjusted EBITDA was also above prior year, despite significantly lower volume, due to $26 million of polycarbonate licensing income in the quarter and our own polycarbonate restructuring actions. Segment volumes were down 15%, driven by lower automotive sales in all three regions, as well as uneconomic volume in polystyrene that we have declined to accept for the time being.

最後，儘管銷量大幅下降，但聚合物解決方案調整後的 EBITDA 也高於上年，這得益於本季度 2,600 萬美元的聚碳酸酯授權收入以及我們自己的聚碳酸酯重組行動。由於三個地區的汽車銷量下降，以及聚苯乙烯銷量不經濟（我們暫時拒絕接受），該部門銷量下降了 15%。

The first quarter free cash flow was negative $119 million and included $25 million of outflows related to our refinancing that closed in January. Aside from this, we had a typical seasonal working capital outflow of $84 million as we rebuilt receivables after a very slow end of Q4. We expect free cash flow in the second quarter to be about breakeven and then positive in the second half of 2025.

第一季的自由現金流為負 1.19 億美元，其中包括與 1 月完成的再融資相關的 2,500 萬美元流出。除此之外，在第四季業績非常低迷之後，我們重建了應收帳款，出現了典型的季節性營運資金流出 8,400 萬美元。我們預計第二季的自由現金流將達到損益兩平，並在 2025 年下半年變為正值。

Now I'll hand the call back over to Frank.

現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Dave. Before I get into our outlook, I'd like to highlight our potential exposure to the proposed tariffs. Over 95% of our product sales are produced within the region in which they are sold, so we anticipate little direct impact. That said, tariffs or disruptions to trade create an uncertain demand environment, particularly in China and for the automotive industry. You're seeing these impacts in China early in the second quarter where tariff uncertainty has had a significant impact on demand for many of the industrial applications we supply.

謝謝，戴夫。在介紹我們的展望之前，我想強調我們可能受到擬議關稅的影響。我們銷售的產品中超過 95% 都是在其銷售地區生產的，因此我們預計直接影響很小。話雖如此，關稅或貿易中斷會造成不確定的需求環境，尤其是在中國和汽車產業。您會在第二季初看到中國出現的這些影響，關稅不確定性對我們供應的許多工業應用的需求產生了重大影響。

On the flip side, tariffs may have a positive pricing and demand impact in certain regions where we're a local producer. For example, in 2024, the U.S. ABS market was about 400 kilotons, of which over 30% was satisfied by imported products, most of which came from Asia. Last year, between 10% and 15% of PMMA resin and surface applications in the U.S. were supplied by Asian imports. Lower imports can obviously have both positive volume and higher price impacts. The largest unknown around tariffs is their impact on overall demand, which could be significant.

另一方面，關稅可能會對我們作為當地生產商的某些地區的定價和需求產生積極的影響。例如，2024年美國ABS市場約為40萬噸，其中30%以上依賴進口產品，而進口產品大部分來自亞洲。去年，美國 10% 至 15% 的 PMMA 樹脂和表面應用由亞洲進口。進口量減少顯然既可以帶來正面影響，又可以提高價格。關稅最大的未知數是其對整體需求的影響，而這種影響可能十分巨大。

In December last year, we furnished full-year 2025 guidance in connection with the announcement of our debt refinancing transaction. Since then, the economic and geopolitical conditions have become more uncertain and even more difficult to predict. Therefore, we are withdrawing all previously furnished full-year guidance and will only provide an outlook for the upcoming quarter.

去年 12 月，我們在宣布債務再融資交易時提供了 2025 年全年指引。自此以後，經濟和地緣政治條件變得更加不確定，甚至更難預測。因此，我們撤回先前提供的所有全年指導，僅提供下一季度的展望。

We expect second quarter adjusted EBITDA to be between $55 million and $70 million, led by seasonally stronger volumes in building and construction, lower costs in engineered materials, and improved AmSty earnings. We are encouraged by our first quarter performance, and we believe we are seeing the impact of our restructuring actions and the transformation strategy reflected in our results. We continue to gain traction with our specialty and sustainable offerings and remain committed to our focus on higher growth and higher margin business, which we can uniquely serve. In the near term, we're confident in our ability to navigate these uncertain business conditions and positively manage those things in our control.

我們預計第二季調整後的 EBITDA 將在 5,500 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元之間，主要原因是建築和施工業務的季節性增長、工程材料成本的降低以及 AmSty 收益的提高。第一季的業績令我們感到鼓舞，我們相信重組行動和轉型策略的影響已反映在業績中。我們繼續透過我們的專業和永續產品獲得關注，並繼續致力於我們能夠獨特地服務的更高成長和更高利潤的業務。在短期內，我們有信心能夠應對這些不確定的商業環境，並積極管理我們所能控制的事情。

And now we're happy to take your questions.

現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

Operator

操作員

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Partners.

Hassan Ahmed，Alembic Global Partners。

Just a question around some of the volume patterns you guys are seeing. You guys obviously talked about the EM business and consumer electronics sort of volumes being up 43% over there. So my question basically is that, did you see some sort of uneven sort of volume patterns ahead of some of these tariffs being implemented? Just trying to get a sense of the sustainability of some of these volumes you guys are seeing.

我只是想問一下你們看到的一些成交量模式。你們顯然談到了那裡的新興市場業務和消費電子產品銷售成長了 43%。所以我的問題基本上是，在實施這些關稅之前，您是否看到某種不均衡的數量模式？只是想了解你們所看到的這些卷的可持續性。

Yes, Hassan, thanks for the question. We've looked at this really closely, and we don't really see any pre-buying to beat the tariffs or a lumpiness in the demand. In fact, the Q1 demand has continued into Q2 so far. And if you think about this business we've made a big effort over the past several years to win new applications and new customers with recycled material. So again, we see it -- right now, we don't see any indication that it was distorted by pre-buying to beat tariffs.

是的，哈桑，謝謝你的提問。我們對此進行了非常仔細的研究，我們並沒有看到任何為避開關稅而進行的預購行為，也沒有看到需求的波動。事實上，第一季的需求已經持續到了第二季。如果你考慮一下這項業務，我們在過去幾年中做出了巨大的努力，利用再生材料贏得新的應用和新客戶。因此，我們再次看到——目前，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明它因預購而扭曲，以避免關稅。

And just two really quick ones. One on the free cash flow guidance for Q2. You guys talked about being sort of breakeven free cash flow wise. How comfortable are you with attaining that with the sort of guidance range you've given? So that's one side of it. And the other side of it is, what are you guys seeing in terms of industry shutdowns, particularly on the styrene, polystyrene side of things?

僅需兩個非常簡短的問題。一個是關於第二季的自由現金流指引。你們談到了損益兩平的自由現金流。透過您給予的指導範圍，您對實現這一目標有多放心？這就是事情的一個面向。另一方面，你們看到業界停工的情況如何，特別是苯乙烯、聚苯乙烯產業停工的情況？

Yes, Hassan. It's Dave. I'll answer the first part. Look, we're pretty -- I mean we're confident in being able to hit that. We've obviously -- we've got it -- we've obviously got one month in the books already and some visibility into May as well. I mean, we do have working capital levers that we can pull and continue to manage very closely particularly around inventory. So Q1 is a seasonally weak working capital quarter for us because of a working capital bill, variable compensation payments, things like that. So I'd say sitting here where we are today, I think we feel pretty confident in Q2.

是的，哈桑。是戴夫。我來回答第一部分。看，我們非常——我的意思是我們有信心能夠實現這一目標。我們顯然 - 我們已經得到了它 - 我們顯然已經有了一個月的記錄，並且對五月份也有一定的了解。我的意思是，我們確實有營運資金槓桿，我們可以利用它並繼續密切管理，特別是在庫存方面。因此，對我們來說，第一季是季節性營運資本疲軟的季度，原因是營運資本帳單、浮動薪資支付等因素。所以我想說，就我們今天的狀況而言，我們對第二季非常有信心。

The other thing I'll point out is that related to the Deepak or the polycarbonate licensing transaction, we did collect $21 million in April. So, we've already collected that and that's obviously part of it -- included in the guidance as well.

我要指出的另一件事是，與 Deepak 或聚碳酸酯許可交易相關，我們確實在 4 月收取了 2,100 萬美元。所以，我們已經收集了這些信息，這顯然是其中的一部分——也包含在指導中。

Yes, Hassan, regarding your second question on the impacts of styrene closures. Frankly, we don't really see a big impact or any negative impact to our business, obviously, because we're no longer a styrene producer in Europe and the European market is significantly oversupplied. So our ability to source material hasn't been hampered in any way. And as it relates to AmSty, AmSty is very -- has one of the best cost positions in the industry and they continue to produce the styrene monomer has been a very good business for them. So, we don't really see any impacts to our business.

是的，哈桑，關於你的第二個問題，關於苯乙烯封蓋的影響。坦白說，我們並沒有看到對我們的業務產生重大影響或任何負面影響，顯然，因為我們不再是歐洲的苯乙烯生產商，而且歐洲市場供應嚴重過剩。因此，我們獲取材料的能力並未受到任何阻礙。就 AmSty 而言，AmSty 擁有業內最佳的成本優勢之一，而且他們繼續生產苯乙烯單體，這對他們來說是一項非常好的業務。因此，我們實際上沒有看到對我們的業務有任何影響。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

We had two questions on AmSty. Can you talk a little bit more about performance in the first quarter? I think the slides mentioned some headwinds from timing issues, but were there also headwinds from outages both on the styrene as well as polystyrene side?

我們對 AmSty 有兩個問題。能否再談談第一季的表現？我認為投影片中提到了時間問題帶來的一些阻力，但苯乙烯和聚苯乙烯方面的停產是否也帶來了阻力？

And then the second question is, is there any update on the AmSty sale process?

第二個問題是，AmSty 出售進程有任何更新嗎？

Maybe let me just take the last question first and then I'll hand the -- Dave can talk about the performance in the quarter. So look we're fully committed to market AmSty and monetize this asset. We're waiting -- our focus is to maximize the value. And so as such, we're going to wait for the best valuation environment that we can get. And when that comes, we'll begin actively marketing the asset.

也許讓我先回答最後一個問題，然後我會交給——戴夫可以談談本季的表現。因此，我們全力致力於推廣 AmSty 並將這項資產貨幣化。我們正在等待——我們的重點是實現價值最大化。因此，我們將等待最佳的估值環境。當這一切到來時，我們將開始積極行銷該資產。

Matthew, so in the -- let me start, I guess, with the -- as you mentioned, the timing and just explain the cause of that as it relates to AmSty. North American benzene prices fell over 30% kind of late in 2024. And that had a timing impact on AmSty in Q4, which moved -- which kind of bled into Q1 as well. And it was exacerbated by the low volumes. Low volumes sold both styrene and polystyrene. So it takes longer for that. There's kind of a lagged effect of the higher-priced benzene going through the P&L. So that's what really impacted the first quarter. That was about an $8 million impact in the first quarter.

馬修，那麼 — — 我想，首先從 — — 正如你提到的時間開始，並解釋一下與 AmSty 相關的原因。2024年末，北美苯價格下跌逾30%。這對第四季的 AmSty 產生了時間影響，這種影響也蔓延到了第一季。而低銷量又加劇了這種情況。苯乙烯和聚苯乙烯的銷量都很低。所以這需要更長的時間。價格較高的苯對損益表有一定的滯後效應。這才是真正影響第一季的因素。這給第一季造成了約 800 萬美元的影響。

It did also accelerate a relatively minor turnaround from early Q2 into late Q1. That was about another $2 million impact on the quarter. So the two of those combined are about $10 million impact on Q1, which look -- they did negative $2 million, if you add back that $10 million that's $8 million, I mean, that's still a -- by any historical standard, that's still a weak quarter for AmSty. And you are right, there was a polystyrene outage at one of their polystyrene sites that's been resolved. So all other outage issues have been resolved. We do expect significantly better results for AmSty in the second quarter than what we've seen in the first quarter.

它確實也加速了從第二季初到第一季末的相對較小的轉變。這對本季的影響約為 200 萬美元。因此，這兩項加起來對第一季的影響約為 1000 萬美元，看起來 - 他們確實負了 200 萬美元，如果再加上這 1000 萬美元，那就是 800 萬美元，我的意思是，這仍然是 - 按照任何歷史標準，這對 AmSty 來說仍然是一個疲軟的季度。您說得對，他們的一個聚苯乙烯生產基地發生了聚苯乙烯停產，目前已經解決了。因此所有其他中斷問題都已解決。我們確實預計 AmSty 第二季的業績將比第一季好得多。

And then maybe if I could follow up. Could you talk a little bit more about this opportunity in battery binders? I don't know if we've seen any mention of that previously. And is this -- the slides mentioned it's related to grid. So I guess this is more on the industrial side and not exactly auto exposure. Is that the right interpretation?

然後也許我可以跟進。您能否進一步談談電池黏合劑領域的這個機會？我不知道我們之前是否見過對此的提及。這是——投影片中提到它與網格有關。所以我猜這更多的是工業方面，而不是自動曝光。這是正確的解釋嗎？

Yes. So thanks for the question. Actually, we've been investing technical resources in anode binders. So we make a latex binder that goes into the anode of lithium-ion batteries. And the biggest -- and we've been winning new platforms and new awards in that area with the various battery manufacturers. And we've been expanding our qualifications to new batteries -- battery producers around the world.

是的。感謝您的提問。實際上，我們一直在陽極黏合劑方面投入技術資源。因此我們製作了一種乳膠黏合劑，可以用於鋰離子電池的陽極。最重要的是——我們在該領域與各電池製造商合作贏得了新的平台和新的獎項。我們一直在將我們的資格擴展到新電池——世界各地的電池生產商。

Now we have sort of a unique advantage in this. We have a good technology, which we've demonstrated. And also, we have a global footprint that makes us a bit unique relative to the rest of the suppliers to the industry. So as they expand globally, we can supply that binder in each region. And so it's been a very, very good growth business for us. And we expect to continue growing because we have a very low penetration of the top 15 suppliers today and -- but it's becoming meaningful.

現在我們在這方面擁有獨特的優勢。我們擁有優良的技術，並且已經證明了這一點。此外，我們的業務遍佈全球，這使得我們相對於業內其他供應商而言具有一定的獨特性。因此，隨著他們在全球範圍內擴張，我們可以在每個地區提供活頁夾。因此，這對我們來說是一項非常非常好的成長業務。我們預計將繼續成長，因為目前我們對前 15 家供應商的滲透率非常低，但這正在變得有意義。

The applications, we just wanted to point out that some of the applications that we have recently won are related to grid storage, and that seems to be getting a lot of traction, but we also have solutions and have one business that go into mobility and automotive batteries. So yes, that's -- hopefully, that answers the question.

對於應用程序，我們只是想指出，我們最近贏得的一些應用程式與電網儲存有關，而且似乎獲得了很大的發展動力，但我們也有解決方案，並且有一項業務涉及移動和汽車電池。是的，希望這能回答這個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯‧亞歷山大，傑富瑞集團。

It's Dan Rizzo on for Laurence. So I understand with the seasonality with cash flow and what you expect in the second quarter, you did say that you expect cash flow to be positive in the second half of the year. But I was wondering if it's -- I mean, is there a path to getting back to breakeven or positive cash flow for the full year of 2025?

丹·里佐 (Dan Rizzo) 代替勞倫斯 (Laurence)。因此，我了解現金流的季節性以及您對第二季度的預期，您確實說過您預計下半年現金流將為正值。但我想知道——我的意思是，是否有辦法在 2025 年全年恢復收支平衡或正現金流？

I guess what I would -- the way I would answer that, I'd point you to Slide 13 in our earnings deck, and we've shown this slide in the past couple of earnings releases. And it's a list of our cash outflows, CapEx, interest, taxes, restructuring costs, et cetera. And if you add it all up, it's $370 million. So I think -- so our EBITDA would need to be $370 million to be cash flow breakeven for the year. Now we're not giving full year guidance, obviously.

我想我會這樣回答，我會向你指出我們收益報告中的第 13 張投影片，我們在過去的幾份收益報告中都展示過這張投影片。這是我們的現金流出、資本支出、利息、稅金、重組成本等的清單。如果把這些加起來，就是 3.7 億美元。所以我認為——我們的 EBITDA 需要達到 3.7 億美元才能實現當年的現金流量收支平衡。顯然，現在我們不會提供全年指導。

But -- now the other thing I would say related to that is the working capital number in here to the extent there would be incremental deterioration in the business and EBITDA was lower, obviously, we would be able to offset that with inventory actions that would -- I think would more than offset, frankly, any EBITDA deterioration if we did see that. But -- so that's what I would point you to. Again, I apologize for not directly answering your question, but since we're not giving annual EBITDA guidance, I just think that's the best way to kind of calibrate it for you.

但是 — — 現在我要說的另一件事是，這裡的營運資本數字在某種程度上會導致業務逐漸惡化，EBITDA 也會降低，顯然，我們可以透過庫存行動來抵消這一點 — — 坦率地說，如果我們確實看到這一點，我認為這將足以抵消任何 EBITDA 惡化。但是——這就是我要向你指出的。再次，我很抱歉沒有直接回答您的問題，但由於我們沒有提供年度 EBITDA 指導，我認為這是為您校準的最佳方式。

And then is there a possibility or is there like any other licensing deals that could happen with something else or another technology you're working on? Is that something that could be just another avenue of growth?

那麼，是否有可能或是否有任何其他授權協議可以與您正在研究的其他東西或其他技術達成？這是否只是另一種成長途徑？

So I think the simple answer is yes. And we see a lot of interest in our recycling technologies broadly from the industry, and we're scaling those up and demonstrating those at commercial scale. So I think in the future, that could also be an opportunity. And frankly, the polycarbonate technology is very attractive and a very good technology as demonstrated by the interest from Deepak. So I wouldn't preclude that we could do more in the polycarbonate area, too.

所以我認為答案是肯定的。我們看到業界對我們的回收技術有著廣泛的興趣，我們正在擴大這些技術並在商業規模上進行展示。所以我認為在未來這也可能是個機會。坦白說，聚碳酸酯技術非常有吸引力，是一項非常好的技術，正如 Deepak 的興趣所證明的那樣。因此，我不排除我們在聚碳酸酯領域能做更多的事情。

Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

弗蘭克米奇，費米研究中心。

I want to follow up on AmSty. On a normal basis, you said about $8 million in 1Q and you expected it to be materially higher. I forget exactly the euphemism to be higher in the second quarter. Last quarter, you indicated that you thought 2025 would kind of get us closer to that average of $65 million or so. How are you thinking about AmSty profitability? And any orders of magnitude you could provide around that would be very helpful.

我想跟進 AmSty。在正常情況下，您說第一季的收入約為 800 萬美元，並且您預計這一數字會大幅增加。我忘記了第二季度更高的確切委婉說法。上個季度，您表示您認為 2025 年我們將更接近 6500 萬美元左右的平均值。您如何看待 AmSty 的獲利能力？如果您能提供任何數量級的信息，那將會非常有幫助。

Yes, Frank, we -- like we said last year, the average from 2022 -- or 2020 to 2024 for AmSty was about $68 million of EBITDA contribution, and we expect to be much closer to that than we were to last year's performance, which by memory was 15. So again, notwithstanding the timing impact that we saw in Q1, I think we still have the confidence in that trajectory.

是的，弗蘭克，就像我們去年說的那樣，2022 年（或者說 2020 年至 2024 年）AmSty 的平均 EBITDA 貢獻約為 6800 萬美元，我們預計會比去年的業績更接近這一水平，我記得去年的業績是 1500 萬美元。因此，儘管我們在第一季看到了時間影響，但我認為我們仍然對這條軌跡充滿信心。

So we're going to be mid-40s or higher by year-end, potentially on AmSty. And yes, coming back, I mean, one of the highlights was clearly consumer electronics, that 43% growth. And last quarter, it was up 61%, which are not normal sort of growth. I'm just curious if you could expand upon that business and kind of orders of magnitude as well in the portfolio because obviously, these numbers are pretty eye-popping.

因此，到年底，我們的收入將達到 40 多甚至更高，可能達到 AmSty 的水平。是的，回過頭來說，我的意思是，其中一個亮點顯然是消費性電子產品，成長了 43%。上個季度，其成長了 61%，這並不是正常的成長。我只是好奇您是否可以擴大該業務以及投資組合的數量級，因為顯然這些數字相當令人瞠目結舌。

Yes. The -- so let me give you examples of where we're supplying into that -- those applications. So almost all consumer electronic brands are products that we would supply into. And if you -- so this could be the device itself, it could be chargers, it could be any number of other products. And one of the big drivers in consumer electronics is sustainability or circularity. And we've been able to meet all of the technical requirements with very high levels of recycled material contained in our product. So upwards of over 50% recycled content, and we believe we have a unique advantage because of that. So I would -- if you name a brand or if you think of a brand, we're probably in some of their devices with that material with a sustainable solution.

是的。那麼，讓我給你舉幾個例子，說明一下我們為這些應用程式提供的產品。因此，幾乎所有消費性電子品牌都是我們可以供應的產品。如果你——那麼這可能是設備本身，可能是充電器，也可能是任何其他產品。消費性電子產品的一大驅動力是永續性或循環性。而且，我們的產品含有大量可回收材料，能夠滿足所有技術要求。因此，回收材料的比例高達 50% 以上，我們相信，我們因此擁有獨特的優勢。所以我想——如果你說出一個品牌或如果你想到某個品牌，我們可能會在他們的一些設備中使用這種材料和可持續的解決方案。

And if you go to Page 10 in our presentation, you can see that it's not insignificant. It's 20% of our Asia Pacific revenue is consumer electronics. And to give you a sense, this is one of the higher-margin businesses, more specialized businesses that we have in the portfolio. So that -- you can do some of the arithmetic to get to an order of magnitude of how big that is.

如果你翻到我們簡報的第 10 頁，你會發現它並非無關緊要。我們亞太地區收入的 20% 來自消費性電子產品。為了讓您了解，這是我們投資組合中利潤率較高、更專業的業務之一。這樣——您可以進行一些算術運算來獲得其數量級。

Yes. So it was interesting because Asia Pacific was down significantly and yet this business was up significantly. So obviously, the rest of Asia Pacific was very problematic.

是的。這很有趣，因為亞太地區的經濟大幅下滑，而這項業務卻大幅成長。顯然，亞太其他地區的問題十分嚴重。

Well, so yes, the rest of Asia -- what was driving Asia Pacific from a significant -- on a significant downward trajectory was the sales that go into appliances. So you could see appliances is for our HIPS products is a big -- polystyrene is a big application for us in Asia. And then paper and board -- has also got off to a very slow start. And we think that a lot of that is tariff driven. So -- but those tend to be the lower margin parts of our business also. So I would say in Asia, it was where we saw significant negative volume developments year-over-year was in the appliances and paper and board. And then obviously, in the other areas, the more formulated products improvements.

嗯，是的，亞洲其他地區——導致亞太地區銷售額大幅下滑的原因是家電銷售額。因此，您可以看到，家用電器對於我們的 HIPS 產品來說是一個很大的應用，聚苯乙烯對於我們在亞洲來說是一個很大的應用。紙張和紙板也起步非常緩慢。我們認為這在很大程度上是由關稅驅動的。所以——但這些往往也是我們業務中利潤較低的部分。因此我想說，在亞洲，我們看到家電、紙張和紙板的銷售量較去年同期大幅下降。顯然，在其他領域，配方產品也得到了更多的改進。

Frank, I just want to add one thing. Just related to the comment on volume. I mean, so if you look at Asia, in particular for us, polystyrene is about 45% of our total Asia volume. So when we're talking about Trinseo as a whole and the volume changes as a whole, polystyrene kind of dwarfed just because of the market size. I mean really dwarfs kind of over washes by a large margin volume changes in consumer electronics, for example, that have far higher margins, obviously, but the volumes just aren't there.

弗蘭克，我只想補充一點。僅與音量評論有關。我的意思是，如果你看看亞洲，特別是對我們來說，聚苯乙烯約占我們亞洲總產量的 45%。因此，當我們談論整個盛禧奧以及其整體的銷售變化時，聚苯乙烯的市場規模就顯得微不足道了。我的意思是，消費電子產品的銷售變化確實比過度清洗的銷售量變化大得多，顯然，它們的利潤率要高得多，但銷售量卻沒有變化。

So Frank is right. In Asia is where we've seen -- two things. It's where we've kind of walked away from the uneconomic business on a year-over-year basis. It's also where we've -- the home appliance, the export market for appliances out of China has been severely affected by the tariffs. So that's the real driver of the polystyrene decline on a year-over-year basis. And then we've got latex binders as well, which goes into paper and board applications in China is down kind of mid-teens year-over-year. And I think that's also really kind of been exacerbated by the tariff announcements.

所以弗蘭克是對的。在亞洲我們看到了兩件事。這是我們逐年遠離不經濟的業務的地方。這也是我們──家電，中國電力出口市場受到關稅嚴重影響的地方。所以這是聚苯乙烯產量年減的真正原因。我們還有乳膠黏合劑，用於中國紙張和紙板的應用，其需求量比去年同期下降了十五六個百分點。我認為關稅公告也確實加劇了這種情況。

And that does conclude today's question-and-answer session as well as today's call. So thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.

今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。感謝大家加入我們，現在您可以斷開連線了。祝大家有個愉快的一天。