Trinseo PLC (TSE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Trinseo fourth-quarter 2023 financial results conference call. We welcome the Trinseo management team, Frank Bozich, President and CEO; David Stasse, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Andy Myers, Director of Investor Relations.

早安，女士們、先生們，歡迎參加盛禧奧 2023 年第四季財務業績電話會議。我們歡迎盛禧奧 (Trinseo) 管理團隊總裁兼執行長 Frank Bozich； David Stasse，執行副總裁兼財務長；和投資者關係總監安迪‧邁爾斯 (Andy Myers)。

Today's conference call will include brief remarks by the management team followed by a question-and-answer session. The company distributed its press release, along with its presentation slides, at close of market Monday, February 12. These documents are posted on the company's Investor Relations website and furnished on a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. (Operator Instructions)

今天的電話會議將包括管理團隊的簡短講話，然後是問答環節。該公司在 2 月 12 日星期一收盤時發布了新聞稿及其演示幻燈片。這些文件發佈在公司的投資者關係網站上，並以向美國證券交易委員會提交的 8-K 表格形式提供。（操作員說明）

I will now hand the call over to Andy Myers. Please go ahead.

我現在將把電話轉給安迪·邁爾斯。請繼續。

Thank you, Audra, and good morning, everyone. (Operator Instructions) Our disclosure rules and cautionary note on forward-looking statements are noted on slide 2.

謝謝你，奧德拉，大家早安。（操作員說明）投影片 2 中註明了我們的揭露規則和前瞻性陳述的警示說明。

During this presentation, we may make certain forward-looking statements, including issuing guidance and describing our future expectations. We must caution you that actual results could differ materially from what is discussed, described, or implied in these statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include, but are not limited to, risk factors set forth in Item 1A of our annual report on Form 10-K or in our other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在本次演示中，我們可能會做出某些前瞻性陳述，包括發布指導和描述我們的未來期望。我們必須提醒您，實際結果可能與這些聲明中討論、描述或暗示的內容有重大差異。可能導致實際結果出現差異的因素包括但不限於我們 10-K 表格年度報告第 1A 項或我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的其他文件中列出的風險因素。

The company undertakes no obligation to update or revise its forward-looking statements. Today's presentation includes certain non-GAAP measurements. A reconciliation of these measurements to corresponding GAAP measures is provided in our earnings release and in the appendix of our investor presentation. A replay of the conference call and transcript will be archived on the company's Investor Relations website shortly following the call. The replay will be available until February 13, 2025.

該公司不承擔更新或修改其前瞻性陳述的義務。今天的演示包括某些非 GAAP 衡量標準。我們的收益報告和投資者介紹的附錄中提供了這些衡量標準與相應公認會計原則衡量標準的對帳。電話會議的重播和文字記錄將在電話會議後不久存檔在公司的投資者關係網站上。重播將持續到 2025 年 2 月 13 日。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Frank Bozich.

現在我想把電話轉給 Frank Bozich。

Thanks, Andy, and welcome to our year-end 2023 earnings call. Although this was arguably arguably the most challenging year in our company's history and one of the most difficult in recent memory for the chemical industry. I'm proud of what we accomplished during the year to improve our cost position and strengthen our market position when global markets normalize. While unprecedented customer destocking, competitive pressure from imports into Europe, and weak market demand persisted throughout the year, we didn't sit idle. We took decisive action on items within our control to liberate cash, improve profitability, and extend our near-term maturities to provide ample runway for the continued shift of our portfolio.

謝謝安迪，歡迎參加我們的 2023 年底財報電話會議。儘管這可以說是我們公司歷史上最具挑戰性的一年，也是化學行業近年來最困難的一年。我對今年在全球市場正常化時改善我們的成本狀況並加強我們的市場地位所取得的成就感到自豪。儘管前所未有的客戶去庫存、歐洲進口的競爭壓力以及疲軟的市場需求全年持續存在，但我們並沒有坐視不理。我們對我們控制範圍內的項目採取果斷行動，以釋放現金、提高盈利能力並延長短期期限，為我們投資組合的持續轉變提供充足的跑道。

In the second half of 2023, we announced a series of additional restructuring actions including the closure of our styrene facility in Terneuzen in the Netherlands, the consolidation of operations across our PMMA cast and extruded sheet network in Europe, as well as other cost savings measures. In addition, we structurally reduced our working capital days to further preserve cash, and we expect to improve on these lower levels. We also successfully refinanced $1.1 billion in near-term maturities until 2028, which will allow us to continue advancing our market-leading sustainability programs. These actions helped us generate positive free cash flow for the year despite the macroeconomic challenges we faced, resulting in $47 million of year-over-year increase in cash on our balance sheet.

2023 年下半年，我們宣布了一系列額外的重組行動，包括關閉荷蘭泰爾訥曾的苯乙烯工廠、整合歐洲 PMMA 澆鑄和擠出片材網絡的運營，以及其他成本節約措施。此外，我們從結構上減少了營運資金天數，以進一步保留現金，我們預計在這些較低水平上會有所改善。我們也成功為 11 億美元的近期到期再融資，直至 2028 年，這將使我們能夠繼續推進我們市場領先的可持續發展計劃。儘管我們面臨宏觀經濟挑戰，這些行動幫助我們在今年創造了正的自由現金流，導致我們的資產負債表上的現金年增了 4700 萬美元。

Regarding our sustainability investments, I would like to point out that we have remained focused on advancing our sustainability initiatives and working toward our 2030 sustainability goals through continued investment and significant advancements that are made in recycling over the past year. We are becoming a larger contributor to the circular economy.

關於我們的永續發展投資，我想指出的是，我們仍然專注於推進我們的永續發展計劃，並透過持續投資和過去一年在回收方面取得的重大進展，努力實現我們的2030 年可持續發展目標。我們正在成為循環經濟的更大貢獻者。

We have commenced full operation at our polycarbonate dissolution pilot facility in Terneuze in the Netherlands and recently announced the inauguration of our PMAD polymerization plants in Rome, Italy, which is on track to be commissioned later this quarter. Once operational, this facility will be able to recycle a broad range of PMMA waste, including end-of-life PMMA by reducing it back to its constituent monomer MMA.

我們位於荷蘭泰爾訥茲的聚碳酸酯溶解試點工廠已開始全面運營，最近還宣布位於義大利羅馬的 PMAD 聚合工廠落成，該工廠預計將於本季度晚些時候投入運作。一旦投入運營，該設施將能夠回收各種 PMMA 廢物，包括透過將報廢的 PMMA 還原成單體 MMA 來回收。

These recycled monomers can then be used to produce PMMA resins, sheets, and compounds containing recycled materials that will match the quality of virgin materials. In summary, this deep polymerization facility will help promote a circular plastics value chain without compromising quality or performance. I'm also happy to report the sales of our recycled content-containing products were up 16% year over year, and we expect continued growth as the recycling operations mature, and we continue to develop new sustainable solutions for our customers for these high-demand offerings.

然後，這些回收的單體可用於生產含有回收材料的 PMMA 樹脂、片材和化合物，其品質可與原始材料的品質相符。總之，這種深度聚合設施將有助於促進循環塑膠價值鏈，而不會影響品質或性能。我還很高興地報告，我們含有回收成分的產品的銷售額同比增長了16%，我們預計隨著回收業務的成熟，銷量將持續增長，並且我們將繼續為客戶開發新的可持續解決方案，以因應這些高需求產品。

Additionally, for specialty and sustainable solutions technologies which include most of our formulated technologies and engineered materials such as rigid compounds, PMMA resins, continuous PMMA sheets and TPEs, as well as case and battery applications, and latex binders continue to see stable margins and experience less volume decline than our commodity applications.

此外，對於專業和永續解決方案技術，包括我們大部分的配方技術和工程材料，如剛性化合物、PMMA 樹脂、連續PMMA 片材和TPE，以及外殼和電池應用，以及乳膠黏合劑繼續獲得穩定的利潤和經驗與我們的商品應用相比，銷量下降幅度較小。

From an EHS standpoint, I'm happy to share that 72% of our eligible sites received our Triple Zero Award this year, meaning the site achieved no injuries, spills, or process safety events. This is a testament to the diligence that our people work with on a daily basis, and I'm extremely proud of this industry leading EHS performance.

從 EHS 的角度來看，我很高興地告訴大家，我們的合格工廠中有 72% 今年獲得了“三零獎”，這意味著該工廠沒有發生任何傷害、洩漏或製程安全事件。這證明了我們的員工每天都在努力工作，我對這種行業領先的 EHS 表現感到非常自豪。

Now I'd like to take a few minutes to provide an update on our fourth-quarter results. As we expected, adjusted EBITDA was sequentially lower than Q3 as year-end customer inventory management and destocking led to a more pronounced seasonality than usual. We saw this dynamic throughout our value chains but most predominantly in building and construction appliances and consumer-durable applications. However, we've already seen volume recovery early in the first quarter and expect sequentially better results, which I'll discuss later.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們第四季業績的最新情況。正如我們預期的那樣，調整後的 EBITDA 連續低於第三季度，因為年底客戶庫存管理和去庫存導致季節性比平常更明顯。我們在整個價值鏈中都看到了這種動態，但主要是在建築和施工設備以及耐用消費品應用領域。然而，我們已經在第一季初期看到了銷量的恢復，並預計會出現連續更好的結果，我將在稍後討論。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Dave to discuss our fourth-quarter and full-year results.

現在我想將電話轉給戴夫，討論我們的第四季和全年業績。

Thanks, Frank. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was below our expectations due to pronounced seasonality and destocking as well as $9 million of unfavorable impacts from natural gas hedges. However, we expect a significant rebound in Q1, which Frank will discuss in more detail.

謝謝，弗蘭克。由於明顯的季節性和去庫存以及天然氣對沖帶來的 900 萬美元不利影響，第四季度調整後 EBITDA 低於我們的預期。然而，我們預計第一季將出現顯著反彈，弗蘭克將對此進行更詳細的討論。

Our full-year adjusted EBITDA results included unfavorable impacts of $51 million from natural gas hedges, $20 million from the timing, and $13 million from fixed cost underabsorption related to our actions to reduce inventory. Despite the challenging macroeconomic environment that we endured throughout the year, we generated cash from operations of $149 million and free cash flow of $79 million in 2023, which reflects the significant efforts by our organization to manage CapEx and working capital very tightly, realizing the benefits of our ERP and supply chain investments.

我們全年調整後的 EBITDA 結果包括 5,100 萬美元的天然氣對沖影響、2000 萬美元的時間影響以及 1,300 萬美元的與我們減少庫存行動相關的固定成本吸收不足的不利影響。儘管我們全年經歷了充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境，但我們在2023 年從營運中產生了1.49 億美元的現金，自由現金流為7,900 萬美元，這反映了我們的組織在嚴格管理資本支出和營運資本方面付出的巨大努力，實現了效益我們的 ERP 和供應鏈投資。

We released $250 million of working capital in 2023, and about two-thirds of that is a structural reduction in days that we believe we can keep when market conditions improve. For the full year in 2024, we will continue to maintain a very disciplined cash focus with lower-than-historical CapEx of about $70 million, as well as further progress in reducing our working capital days. While we expect a working capital release for the year, please keep in mind that working capital is likely to increase in Q1 due to seasonality.

我們在 2023 年釋放了 2.5 億美元的營運資金，其中約三分之二是結構性減少的天數，我們相信當市場狀況改善時我們可以保留這些天數。2024 年全年，我們將繼續保持非常嚴格的現金重點，資本支出低於歷史水準約 7,000 萬美元，並在減少營運資金天數方面取得進一步進展。雖然我們預計今年會釋放營運資金，但請記住，由於季節性因素，第一季的營運資金可能會增加。

We ended 2023 with $259 million of cash and $471 million of liquidity, including our undrawn bank facilities. While we are comfortable with our cash and liquidity levels heading into 2024. We remain highly focused on opportunities that prioritize liquidity and profitability improvement while exercising disciplined working capital management.

截至 2023 年，我們擁有 2.59 億美元現金和 4.71 億美元流動資金，包括未提取的銀行融資。雖然我們對 2024 年的現金和流動性水準感到滿意。我們仍然高度關注優先考慮流動性和獲利能力改善的機會，同時實施嚴格的營運資本管理。

Now I'll turn the call back over to Frank.

現在我將把電話轉回給弗蘭克。

Thanks, Dave. So far to begin the year, we're seeing sequentially higher volumes in Q1 due to customer orders, reflecting underlying market demand levels following the strict inventory management that we saw at the end of 2023. We're also beginning to recover volumes in Europe that had been taken by imports from Asia. Additionally, starting in Q1, we expect to see the full benefit of the restructuring initiatives that we took in the second half of last year as well as much lower natural gas hedge losses.

謝謝，戴夫。年初至今，由於客戶訂單，我們看到第一季的銷售量連續增加，這反映了我們在 2023 年底看到的嚴格庫存管理之後的潛在市場需求水準。我們也開始恢復歐洲的進口量，這些量是從亞洲進口的。此外，從第一季開始，我們預計將看到去年下半年採取的重組措施的全部效益，以及天然氣對沖損失的大幅降低。

As a result, we expect Q1 profitability to be significantly higher than Q4 with adjusted EBITDA of about $40 million to $50 million. We view first-quarter profitability as the low point of the year due to turnaround activity in the first quarter, seasonally lower volumes, nonrecurring costs in Q1, and growth from new business awards that phase in later in the year.

因此，我們預計第一季的獲利能力將顯著高於第四季度，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。我們認為第一季的獲利能力是今年的最低點，原因是第一季的扭虧為盈、銷量季節性下降、第一季度的偶發成本以及今年晚些時候陸續推出的新業務獎勵帶來的增長。

In addition, we're currently seeing higher input costs in several segments related to Red Sea shipping surcharges that we expect to fully recover in our prices in Q2. Please note, we don't believe these higher sequential Q1 volumes represent a broad underlying market recovery, and for the full year, we currently anticipate underlying market demand to remain constrained and generally in line with 2023. Despite this, we expect higher volumes in our more specialty businesses as we recover share against Asian imports due to moderating cost in Europe and as we win new business in our target applications.

此外，我們目前發現與紅海航運附加費相關的幾個細分市場的投入成本較高，我們預計這些成本將在第二季完全恢復到我們的價格中。請注意，我們認為第一季連續銷量的增加並不代表基礎市場的廣泛復甦，而且就全年而言，我們目前預計基礎市場需求將繼續受到限制，並與 2023 年基本一致。儘管如此，隨著歐洲成本的緩和以及我們在目標應用中贏得新業務，我們將恢復相對於亞洲進口產品的份額，我們預計我們的更專業業務的銷量將會增加。

In addition, we expect significantly higher profitability in 2024 as the restructuring actions we've taken, combined with expected lower natural gas hedge losses, are expected to contribute approximately $100 million of sequential benefit. While we anticipate the logistics cost increase related to the Red Sea shipping crisis may help reduce cost differential between our European products and imports from Asia, it's difficult to determine the impact of this at this time. Along with this, we have additional network optimization opportunities in Europe that we continue to explore, which we hope to benefit late from later in 2024. I want to be clear that our strategy remains unchanged.

此外，我們預計 2024 年的獲利能力將顯著提高，因為我們採取的重組行動，加上預期較低的天然氣對沖損失，預計將貢獻約 1 億美元的連續收益。雖然我們預計與紅海運輸危機相關的物流成本增加可能有助於縮小我們的歐洲產品與亞洲進口產品之間的成本差異，但目前很難確定其影響。除此之外，我們還在歐洲繼續探索更多的網路優化機會，我們希望在 2024 年稍後從中受益。我想明確的是，我們的策略保持不變。

Since the second half of 2022, our company has faced unprecedented challenges marked by persistent customer destocking throughout our value chains, along with geopolitical conflicts that have significantly impacted trade flows and the competitiveness of European chemical production. Amid this environment, we took decisive actions to increase our manufacturing network flexibility, which enables us to take advantage of regional cost differences while reducing capital expenditures and optimizing working capital. And we will continue to assess additional opportunities.

自 2022 年下半年以來，我們公司面臨前所未有的挑戰，整個價值鏈中客戶持續去庫存，加上地緣政治衝突嚴重影響了貿易流動和歐洲化學品生產的競爭力。在這種環境下，我們採取果斷行動，提高製造網路的靈活性，這使我們能夠利用區域成本差異，同時減少資本支出並優化營運資本。我們將繼續評估更多機會。

In fact, since 2022, we have reduced fixed costs by over $70 million, while also offsetting inflation. These actions have improved profitability, cash flow, allowing us to continue investing in higher value product offerings and sustainable solutions, and to be in a better position when demand returns to normalized levels.

事實上，自 2022 年以來，我們已經減少了超過 7,000 萬美元的固定成本，同時也抵銷了通貨膨脹。這些行動提高了獲利能力和現金流，使我們能夠繼續投資於更高價值的產品和永續解決方案，並在需求恢復正常水平時處於更有利的地位。

Lastly, I want to take a moment to thank our employees across the globe for their relentless efforts in 2023 and for the dedication to our transformation strategy as we continue to navigate this difficult macroeconomic environment.

最後，我想花點時間感謝我們全球各地的員工在 2023 年的不懈努力，以及在我們繼續應對這一困難的宏觀經濟環境時對我們轉型策略的奉獻。

And now we're happy to take your questions.

現在我們很高興回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Frank Mitsch, Fermium Research.

（操作員說明）Frank Mitsch，費米研究公司。

As we're sitting here in middle of February, you indicated that you're seeing sequentially higher volumes so far relative to the fourth quarter. And you also mentioned you're getting a volume benefit in Europe due to less imports coming out of Asia. Can you be more granular in terms of the end markets that you're seeing those impacts?

當我們在二月中旬坐在這裡時，您表示到目前為止，相對於第四季度，您看到的交易量連續增加。您還提到，由於來自亞洲的進口量減少，您在歐洲獲得了銷售優勢。您能否更詳細地了解您所看到的這些影響的終端市場？

I would say it's mainly in our specialty business applications in Europe, automotive, and some of the building and construction applications, some of the consumer products applications is where we're seeing those volumes come back. But look, this is really for the first time in 20 months in January, we saw year-over-year volume increases, and the order book in February looks similar.

我想說，這主要是在我們歐洲的專業業務應用、汽車以及一些建築和施工應用中，我們看到這些銷售在一些消費品應用中回升。但看，這確實是 20 個月來第一次，我們看到 1 月份的成交量同比增長，而且 2 月份的訂單看起來很相似。

So I would say it's clear, two months don't make a trend, but it's -- And I would say it's too early to tell if this reflects the end of destocking or some of this is from orders that shifted from Q4 to Q1. But again, it's significantly better than Q4 but difficult to say that it's a trend.

所以我想說，很明顯，兩個月不會形成趨勢，但我想說，現在判斷這是否反映了去庫存的結束，或者其中一些來自從第四季度轉移到第一季的訂單還為時過早。但同樣，它明顯好於第四季度，但很難說這是一種趨勢。

Okay. All right. That's helpful. And if I look at your slide 13 where you list all the puts and takes in terms of cash flow components that nets to about $300 million cash outlay in 2024, so how are you thinking about your ability to progress through the year based on your profitability levels in terms of where you have to drawdown cash, where you have to borrow cash, or your expectation on profitability will more than exceed those puts and takes on cash from operations? How do you -- I know it's early in the year to forecast that with the uncertain economic background, but I'm just curious how you're thinking about the cash generation or cash burn in '24.

好的。好的。這很有幫助。如果我看一下你的投影片13，其中你列出了現金流量組成部分的所有看跌期權和期權，到2024 年淨現金支出約為3 億美元，那麼你如何根據你的盈利能力來考慮你在今年取得進展的能力您必須提取現金的水平，您必須借入現金的水平，或者您對盈利能力的預期將超過這些看跌期權和從運營中獲取的現金？我知道在經濟背景不確定的情況下，現在預測這一點還為時過早，但我只是好奇你如何看待 24 年的現金產生或現金消耗。

It's Dave. I'll answer that. So you're right, we have a page in our slide deck 13 that shows our cash flow components for the year. And included in that is an estimated working capital benefit of $50 million. And we've got actions identified and already underway to realize that. So I'm confident we're going to be able to achieve on that working capital release again in 2013.

是戴夫。我會回答這個問題。所以你是對的，我們的幻燈片 13 中有一個頁面顯示了我們今年的現金流量組成部分。其中包括估計 5,000 萬美元的營運資本利得。我們已經確定並正在採取行動來實現這一目標。因此，我相信我們能夠在 2013 年再次釋放營運資金。

So nonetheless, all that adds up to $300 million -- about $300 million of cash outlays. You'll notice obviously that we didn't give -- we're not giving annual guidance on this call because of the degree of uncertainty that is pretty significant lift in volume that we've seen, we need to see if that persists or not. But to the extent our EBITDA for the year is higher or lower than $300 million, that would be the positive or negative free cash flow for the year.

儘管如此，所有這些加起來就達到了 3 億美元——大約 3 億美元的現金支出。您顯然會注意到，我們沒有提供- 我們不會就這次電話會議提供年度指導，因為不確定性程度是我們所看到的交易量的顯著提升，我們需要看看這種情況是否持續存在或不是。但如果我們今年的 EBITDA 高於或低於 3 億美元，這將是今年的正或負自由現金流。

Now what I would say related to drawing on lines is that we ended the year with $260 million of cash on the balance sheet, and we do have undrawn lines behind that for a total of almost $500 million of liquidity. We've not drawn any of our lines. I don't expect the need to with what we generate this year. I think we have plenty of cash on the balance sheet. If we do, in fact, have a negative free cash flow this year, I would expect us to to finance that with cash off the balance sheet and not drawing on lines.

現在，我要說的是，與動用額度相關的是，我們年底的資產負債表上有 2.6 億美元的現金，而我們確實有未動用的額度，流動性總額接近 5 億美元。我們還沒有劃定任何界線。我預計我們今年的成果不需要這樣做。我認為我們的資產負債表上有大量現金。事實上，如果我們今年的自由現金流確實為負，我希望我們能夠用資產負債表外的現金而不是動用資金來融資。

Sounds good. Just lastly, what is the kind of minimum cash level you feel comfortable with having on the balance sheet to run the company?

聽起來不錯。最後，您認為資產負債表上用於營運公司的最低現金水準是多少？

Yeah, I think the minimum level of cash, Frank, is about -- look, the way I would define that minimum level, first of all, is how much cash you need to weather intra-month working capital swings ups and downs. And I'd say that's probably about $100 million.

是的，弗蘭克，我認為最低現金水平是——看，我定義最低水平的方式，首先是你需要多少現金來承受月內營運資金的波動。我想說這可能約為 1 億美元。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

David Begleiter, Deutsche Bank.

大衛‧貝格萊特，德意志銀行。

Frank and Dave, you've talked about Q1 being a low point of the year for a number of reasons. How should we think about the ramp to Q2?

法蘭克和戴夫，你們談到第一季是今年的低點，原因有很多。我們該如何看待第二季的成長？

In terms of what elements will contribute to a build-up in Q2, what I would say the drivers for that are normal seasonality in building and construction. We would always see those applications volumes improve in those end markets. The other significant impact that will go away in Q1 is that the AmSty turnaround is going to be over in Q1. And so we'll have a full benefit of AmSty's earnings contributions in Q2.

就哪些因素將有助於第二季的成長而言，我認為其驅動因素是建築和施工的正常季節性。我們總是會看到這些終端市場的應用程式數量增加。將在第一季消失的另一個重大影響是 AmSty 的扭虧為盈將在第一季結束。因此，我們將在第二季充分受益於 AmSty 的獲利貢獻。

And then we'll see mid-single-digit million per quarter EBITDA contributions from new business awards that will phase in in subsequent quarters. The timing, I can't predict exactly whether it will be Q2 to Q3, but I would expect it to be mid-single-digit contributions from those.

然後，我們將看到新業務獎勵每季帶來百萬中個位數的 EBITDA 貢獻，這些獎勵將在接下來的幾季中逐步實施。時間上，我無法準確預測是否會在第二季度到第三季度，但我預計這些貢獻將是中位數。

The other thing that we're seeing that somewhat depressing Q1 relative to what we expect in Q2 is the freight surcharges that we're seeing related to raw materials that we source from Asia now coming from a couple of hundred dollars a ton higher due to freight, and that's mainly in our plastic solutions value chain. And we expect to recover that in pricing beginning in Q2 if it still persist.

我們看到的另一件事是，與我們對第二季度的預期相比，第一季有些令人沮喪的是，我們看到與我們從亞洲採購的原材料相關的運費附加費現在每噸上漲了幾百美元，原因是貨運，這主要是在我們的塑膠解決方案價值鏈中。如果這種情況仍然持續下去，我們預計將在第二季開始恢復這項定價。

Very good. You mentioned this, again, $100 million cost improvement including natural gas hedge losses in 2024. What's potentially the number to be higher than $100 million you forecasted?

非常好。您再次提到了 2024 年 1 億美元的成本改善，包括天然氣對沖損失。超過您預測的 1 億美元的潛在數字是多少？

Can you just repeat the question? What's the potential for the savings associated with all the restructuring to be higher than $100 million?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？與所有重組相關的節省成本超過 1 億美元的潛力有多大？

Correct, yes.

正確，是的。

Is that the question? Okay.

這是問題嗎？好的。

Yeah, I'll try and take a stab at that, Dave. Look, I think the the largest contributor of that $100 million is obviously shutting down those styrene facilities. And I wanted to say this on this call, just you know, Dave, you've been following us since we've been public, and almost that entire duration since we've been public, a large part of our identity has been a styrene producer, so we've been long styrene. We're the opposite now. We're short styrene. We're a buyer of styrene for our downstream businesses.

是的，我會嘗試一下，戴夫。看，我認為這 1 億美元的最大貢獻者顯然是關閉這些苯乙烯設施。我想在這次電話會議上說這一點，戴夫，你知道，自從我們公開以來，你一直在關注我們，而且自從我們公開以來的幾乎整個時間裡，我們的身份的很大一部分一直是苯乙烯生產商，所以我們一直在做多苯乙烯。我們現在是相反的。我們做空苯乙烯。我們是下游業務的苯乙烯買家。

So what would lead to that number being higher is a more depressed styrene market. So we're no longer producing styrene, we're buying it. If we were producing it now, we would have significant, significant losses as our other European styrene producers now as we speak.

因此，導致這一數字更高的原因是苯乙烯市場更加低迷。所以我們不再生產苯乙烯，而是購買苯乙烯。如果我們現在生產它，我們將像我們現在所說的其他歐洲苯乙烯生產商一樣遭受巨大的損失。

So I guess kind of in a perverse way, a worsening environment would result in that $100 million being higher because we'd benefit from lower styrene pricing now. That may or may not have -- That kind of environment would that be apt to have maybe a negative environment elsewhere in the business, but I'm very comfortable on the $100 million number, as I said, if we were producing styrene, knowing that we generate -- Starting in Q1, we no longer have a feedstock segment. But if we did it and we were producing, it would be significantly negative.

因此，我認為，以一種反常的方式，惡化的環境會導致這 1 億美元更高，因為我們現在可以從較低的苯乙烯定價中受益。這可能會也可能不會——這種環境可能會在業務的其他地方產生負面環境，但正如我所說，如果我們生產苯乙烯，我對 1 億美元的數字感到非常滿意，因為我知道我們產生的－從第一季開始，我們不再有原料部分。但如果我們這樣做並且我們正在生產，那將是顯著的負面影響。

Yeah, I guess, maybe let me just add one thing. I said this in my prepared remarks, but we have additional opportunities that we continue to evaluate that we would expect if we implement those and move forward that they would accrue in the later part of the year. So again, we're always looking -- there are significant market opportunities to take advantage of inter-regional cost differences and change our supply chain and flex the network, and we will continue to evaluate those. So those could be additive to the $100 million also.

是的，我想，也許讓我補充一件事。我在準備好的演講中說過這一點，但我們還有其他機會，我們將繼續評估，如果我們實施這些機會並繼續前進，我們將期望它們將在今年下半年產生。因此，我們一直在尋找——利用區域間成本差異、改變我們的供應鏈和靈活網路的重大市場機會，我們將繼續評估這些機會。因此，這些也可能增加到 1 億美元。

Matthew Blair, TPH.

馬修·布萊爾，TPH。

I was wondering if there's any update on the styrene sale process, that styrenic sale process? And is that something that could happen in 2024?

我想知道苯乙烯銷售流程、苯乙烯銷售流程是否有任何更新？這會在 2024 年發生嗎？

So we don't really have an update. I would say there's nothing imminent. We continue to field questions about and field interest on specific assets, but nothing's imminent.

所以我們確實沒有更新。我會說沒有什麼迫在眉睫的事情。我們繼續回答有關特定資產的問題並表達對特定資產的興趣，但沒有什麼是迫在眉睫的。

Okay. And then I was hoping you could help us just a little bit more with the bridge from the $20 million in Q4 to $40 million to $50 million in Q1. It sounds like some of the specialty volumes are picking up a little bit. Are you seeing margin improvement anywhere? And then also, do you expect to roll off like any of the natural gas headwinds or net timing benefits in the Q1?

好的。然後我希望您能幫助我們從第四季的 2000 萬美元過渡到第一季的 4000 萬美元到 5000 萬美元。聽起來一些專業卷的數量有所增加。您是否看到任何地方的利潤率有所改善？另外，您是否預計會像第一季的任何天然氣逆風或淨時機效益一樣下滑？

So well, let me -- that's three things that are really driving -- three elements that are driving the improvement from Q4 to Q1. And number one is volume. Number two is the full benefit of the restructuring activities. And the third thing, I would say, is we did have a turnaround in our EM business. Our biggest resin plant in Bristol had an extended turnaround in Q4, and that's behind us now.

好吧，讓我來說一下——這是真正推動的三件事——推動第四季到第一季改善的三個因素。第一個是數量。第二是重組活動的全部效益。我想說的第三件事是，我們的新興市場業務確實出現了好轉。我們位於布里斯託的最大樹脂工廠在第四季度實現了較長的周轉時間，現在已經過去了。

So those are the drivers that would as well as volume, the restructuring benefit, and the turnaround, as it relates to -- David can --

因此，這些驅動因素以及銷售、重組效益和周轉率，因為它與——大衛可以--

Yeah, look, Matthew, as it relates to natural gas hedges, we had $9 million, a 9 million loss in Q4. It's going to be about a $5 million loss in Q1. And for the full -- look, I expect to not really be talking about that anymore and think there's a significant number in '23. For the full year '24, it's going to be about $10 million. And as I said, the $4 million, $5 million of that is going to be in Q1, then it falls off. So there is a sequential pick-up of $4 million there.

是的，馬修，因為這與天然氣對沖有關，我們在第四季度虧損了 900 萬美元，虧損了 900 萬美元。第一季將損失約 500 萬美元。就完整而言，我希望不再真正談論這個問題，並認為 23 年有相當多的數字。24 年全年的收入約為 1000 萬美元。正如我所說，其中 400 萬美元、500 萬美元將出現在第一季度，然後就會下降。因此，那裡有 400 萬美元的連續回升。

Great.

偉大的。

Hassan Ahmed, Alembic Global Advisors.

哈桑·艾哈邁德 (Hassan Ahmed)，Alembic 全球顧問。

Look, I obviously understand that you guys aren't giving full year 2024 guidance with all the uncertainties and macro issues and the like. But again, back in Q3, you guys were alluding to somewhat of a bridge to 2024 in terms of all the controllables, right? And you alluded to the restructuring benefits, the benefits from the Terneuzen side of things. Restructuring was, call it, $100 million. Net timing was another $16 million tailwind. Terneuzen was around $60 million, so call it $175 million of tailwinds.

聽著，我顯然明白你們不會在所有不確定性和宏觀問題等的情況下給出 2024 年全年指導。但同樣，回到第三季度，你們提到了在所有可控因素方面通往 2024 年的橋樑，對嗎？你提到了重組的好處，來自泰爾訥曾方面的好處。重組花費了 1 億美元。淨時機是另一個 1600 萬美元的順風車。泰爾訥曾的收入約為 6,000 萬美元，因此可以稱之為 1.75 億美元的順風車。

Now if I tack that on to even the low point, call it annualized Q4 EBITDA of $80 million. I come up with a number which is $250 million to $260 million for 2024. But if I were to then get a little more aggressive, annualize your Q1 guidance, we're well north to $300 million. How are you thinking about at least the floor for 2024 EBITDA?

現在，如果我把這個數字加到最低點，則稱其為 8000 萬美元的第四季度年化 EBITDA。我得出的數字是 2024 年為 2.5 億至 2.6 億美元。但如果我再更激進一點，將第一季的指導年度化，我們就已經遠遠達到了 3 億美元。您如何看待 2024 年 EBITDA 的下限？

Look, maybe let me start with what has changed since Q3 and what we're seeing in the markets because I think you can't -- I wouldn't -- Sitting here today, I don't think we can look at Q3 as a reference and build off of that. And the reason is that we've seen a significant margin deterioration, polycarbonate, ABS and polystyrene. And what those chemistries all have in common is a significant overhang in capacity in China. And absent some market recovery in China, I don't really expect to see margins at the Q3 levels in the near term.

聽著，也許讓我從第三季度以來發生的變化以及我們在市場上看到的情況開始，因為我認為你不能——我不會——今天坐在這裡，我認為我們不能考慮第三季度作為參考並以此為基礎。原因是我們看到聚碳酸酯、ABS 和聚苯乙烯的利潤率顯著惡化。這些化學物質的共同點是中國產能嚴重過剩。如果中國市場沒有出現復甦，我並不認為短期內利潤率會達到第三季的水平。

And I would say, frankly, this is very consistent with the views expressed by all of our industry peers. And I would just give you an anecdote. Look, I spent the last two weeks in Asia visiting clients across our value chains. And what I would tell you in general is that all of our Chinese customers are of the view that there will be no domestic growth in their business or domestic demand growth in their business in 2024. And the growth that they can expect and are planning for is due to exports into Europe which is the highest cost region.

坦白說，這與我們所有業內同行所表達的觀點是非常一致的。我只想跟你講一個軼事。看，過去兩週我在亞洲拜訪了我們價值鏈上的客戶。我要告訴大家的是，我們所有的中國客戶都認為，到 2024 年，他們的業務不會出現國內成長，也不會有內需成長。他們預期和計劃的增長是由於向成本最高地區歐洲的出口。

So I think that's what's changed and why we're reluctant at this point to provide any certainty about the full year 2024. There's just too many moving parts in how China will develop and some of the other costs will develop. However, that being said, there are opportunities for us to continue flexing the network and to take advantage of regional cost arbitrage as well as reduce fixed costs. And that's what we're focused on what's in our control.

所以我認為這就是發生的變化，也是我們目前不願意提供有關 2024 年全年情況的任何確定性的原因。中國的發展方式以及其他一些成本的變化有太多的因素。然而，話雖這麼說，我們有機會繼續靈活網路、利用區域成本套利以及降低固定成本。這就是我們關注的重點。

Understood, understood. And let me sort of take another stab at just sort of the market environment, right, particularly as it pertains to, call it, seasonality, inventory levels, and the like. I mean, in terms of your Q4 results and the weakness over there, you guys talked about a pronounced seasonality particularly in Asia and Europe, right, which kind of surprised me a little bit, keeping in mind how severe the quote-unquote destock has been, right?

明白了，明白了。讓我再次嘗試市場環境，對吧，特別是與季節性、庫存水準等相關的環境。我的意思是，就你們第四季度的業績和那裡的疲軟而言，你們談到了明顯的季節性，特別是在亞洲和歐洲，對吧，這讓我有點驚訝，記住報價-未報價去庫存的嚴重程度。去過，對吧？

I mean, as I sort of sit there and listen to some of the other companies, some of the other companies are talking about the lack of seasonality in Q4 because of how destocking started, call it, in the back half of 2022 and carried on through most of 2023. So what I'm I'm trying to understand is, what, on the inventory side and the demand side, is cyclical versus secular, right?

我的意思是，當我坐在那裡聽其他一些公司的發言時，其他一些公司正在談論第四季度缺乏季節性，因為去庫存是如何在 2022 年下半年開始並持續進行的到2023 年的大部分時間。所以我想了解的是，在庫存方面和需求方面，週期性與長期性是什麼，對吧？

I mean, I think that coming out of the lockdowns with COVID and the like, maybe people overbought. And I mean, have buying patterns -- with China the way it's looking, with Europe the way it's looking, have buying patterns at least for the foreseeable future changed relative to history?

我的意思是，我認為隨著新冠疫情等封鎖的解除，人們可能會超買。我的意思是，購買模式──中國現在的樣子，歐洲現在的樣子，至少在可預見的未來，購買模式相對於歷史是否改變了？

I think the simple answer is, yes. And in particular in Europe and what I would say is in Asia in general, what we're seeing is consumer behavior changing significantly in that changing buyer patterns as it relates to building and construction applications as well as consumer durables end up in particular in those two areas. And against that backdrop of lower consumer demand, you have continued capacity additions in Asia in some of these chemistries. So it's a changing -- I do think demand patterns and demand has certainly changed over the past several quarters that, well, to answer the question simply.

我認為簡單的答案是，是的。特別是在歐洲，以及我想說的是在整個亞洲，我們看到消費者行為發生了顯著變化，買家模式不斷變化，因為它涉及建築和施工應用以及耐用消費品，特別是在這些領域兩個區域。在消費者需求下降的背景下，亞洲部分化學品的產能持續增加。所以這是一個變化——我確實認為需求模式和需求在過去幾個季度確實發生了變化，好吧，簡單地回答這個問題。

Fair enough.

很公平。

Laurence Alexander, Jefferies.

勞倫斯·亞歷山大，杰弗里斯。

Two quick ones. First, can you characterize the mixed effect you're seeing as volumes start to improve? Are your higher margin products rebounding first, or should we expect as we go into Q2 and Q3 a bit of a drag on mix?

兩個快的。首先，您能描述一下隨著交易量開始改善所看到的混合效應嗎？您的利潤率較高的產品是否會先反彈，或者當我們進入第二季和第三季時，我們是否應該預期會對組合產生一些拖累？

So we are seeing the more formulated solutions being more resilient and the volume improvement being more significant in those than in the more commodity-based, polymer-type products. So the simple answer is, yes.

因此，我們看到配方更豐富的解決方案更具彈性，與更多基於商品的聚合物型產品相比，這些解決方案的銷售改善更為顯著。所以簡單的答案是，是的。

And secondly, just in terms of now that you're seeing markets revert to baseload demand, can you give a sense for just how much of the volume hit in retrospect was just the destock? So if your volumes were down 7%, is that kind of new run rate down 3% year over year? Can you give some sense we can try and think about what the cadence of the balance may be just to adjust from the destocking environment to the underlying demand environment?

其次，就現在而言，您看到市場恢復到基本負載需求，您能否說明一下，回想起來，有多少成交量只是由於庫存減少而造成的？那麼，如果您的銷量下降了 7%，那麼新的運行率是否會比去年同期下降 3%？您能否給我們一些啟發，我們可以嘗試思考平衡的節奏可能是什麼，以從去庫存環境調整到潛在需求環境？

Well, I think this goes back to the question, I think, that David asked or Frank, I can't recall Right now, it's difficult to pinpoint that because I'm not sure -- In the first two months of the quarter, we're seeing a solid volume improvement after a very low volume in Q4. So it's difficult for us to unpack how much of that is actually volume shift from Q4 into Q1, and if you do the arithmetic that you're looking for.

好吧，我認為這又回到了大衛或弗蘭克問的問題，我現在不記得了，因為我不確定 - 在本季度的前兩個月，在第四季度銷量非常低之後，我們看到銷量有了顯著改善。因此，如果您進行所需的算術運算，我們很難弄清楚其中有多少實際上是從第四季度到第一季的銷售變化。

So I think we need to get through Q1 or begin to see March orders, and then we'll be able to see more effectively when we see the Q2 order book beginning to develop, we'll have a better understanding of what that is.

因此，我認為我們需要度過第一季或開始看到三月的訂單，然後當我們看到第二季訂單簿開始發展時，我們將能夠更有效地看到，我們將更好地了解這是什麼。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

And this concludes today's question-and-answer session and today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的問答環節和電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。