Torm PLC (TRMD) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by. My name is Janice, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TORM first quarter 2025 results. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持。我叫 Janice，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家關注 TORM 2025 年第一季業績。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the call over to Jacob Meldgaard, CEO. Please go ahead.

現在我想將電話轉給執行長 Jacob Meldgaard。請繼續。

Thank you. Thank you, Janice, and a warm welcome to everyone joining us on the call today.

謝謝。謝謝你，珍妮絲，熱烈歡迎今天參加我們電話會議的所有人。

This morning, we released our report with the interim results for the first quarter of 2025. TORM achieved a solid result in the quarter, in line with our expectations. But again, it was a quarter that has been influenced by a wide range of external factors that we need to take into consideration. The first quarter reflected a more stable market environment compared to the volatility we experienced in the latter half of last year. TCE amounted to USD214 million, thus broadly in line with the previous quarter, signaling early signs of stabilization following the declines we saw in the second half of 2024.

今天上午，我們發布了2025年第一季的中期業績報告。TORM 本季取得了穩健的業績，符合我們的預期。但同樣，這個季度受到了多種外部因素的影響，我們需要將這些因素納入考量。與去年下半年經歷的波動相比，第一季的市場環境更加穩定。TCE 達到 2.14 億美元，與上一季基本持平，這表明在 2024 年下半年下滑之後，出現了初步的穩定跡象。

Fleet-wide freight rates remained consistent with the levels seen in the fourth quarter, enabling us to deliver solid earnings. For the quarter, we achieved a net profit of USD63 million, demonstrating that while our income has normalized compared to the elevated levels a year ago, we continue to generate strong and sustainable results.

整個船隊的運費與第四季度的水平保持一致，使我們能夠實現穩健的盈利。本季度，我們實現了 6,300 萬美元的淨利潤，這表明雖然我們的收入與去年同期的高水準相比已經恢復正常，但我們仍在繼續創造強勁且可持續的業績。

I would also like to highlight that we successfully divested several older vessels. Despite a quiet second-hand market with buyers and sellers struggling to align on pricing, we secured the sale of three 20-year-old MR vessels during the first quarter and one 17-year-old LR2 vessel after the end of the quarter. These transactions underscore the high quality and strong maintenance standards of our fleet.

我還想強調的是，我們成功剝離了幾艘老舊船隻。儘管二手市場平靜，買賣雙方難以就價格達成一致，但我們在第一季度成功售出了三艘 20 年船齡的 MR 型船舶，並在本季度結束後售出了一艘 17 年船齡的 LR2 型船舶。這些交易凸顯了我們船隊的高品質和強大的維護標準。

Looking into the remaining part of 2025, the shipping market remains highly dynamic, with sentiment continuing to shift and new factors emerging at a faster pace. This environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and it reinforces the need for us to be agile and adapt quickly to changes. To stay ahead, we maintain a sharp focus on monitoring and analyzing new trends, ensuring that we are ready to respond swiftly to evolving conditions and can position ourselves effectively amid heightened uncertainty. As part of this approach, I will, on the following slides, walk you through some of the key issues currently on our radar.

展望2025年剩餘時間，航運市場仍充滿活力，市場情緒持續轉變，新因素加速湧現。這種環境既帶來了挑戰，也帶來了機遇，也強化了我們敏捷應對和快速適應變化的必要性。為了保持領先地位，我們密切關注監測和分析新趨勢，確保我們隨時準備好對不斷變化的情況做出快速反應，並能夠在高度不確定的情況下有效地定位自己。作為這種方法的一部分，我將在下面的幻燈片中向您介紹我們目前關注的一些關鍵問題。

Please turn to slide 5. Since the second half of last year, product tanker freight rates have lost momentum compared to the high levels seen since 2022, but the rates have nevertheless remained at levels, which are still strong in historical terms. One of the main reasons behind lower rates has been the fact that the Red Sea disruption effect has not been supportive of the product tanker ton-miles since the last quarter of 2024.

請翻到投影片 5。自去年下半年以來，成品油油輪運費與2022年以來的高點相比有所減弱，但運費仍維持在歷史高點。運費下降的主要原因之一是，自 2024 年最後一個季度以來，紅海中斷效應一直不利於成品油輪噸英里運輸。

And here, I will turn to slide 6, and I can elaborate on that. While crude cannibalization has normalized, trade volumes on the routes mostly affected by the Red Sea disruption have lost momentum. By the start of this year, trade volumes from the Middle East to Europe have fallen by around 40% compared to the first three quarters of 2024. Lower trade volumes counterbalanced longer trading distances. And with this, the ton-mile impact of the Red Sea disruption has been non-existent or even negative in recent months. Since March, we have, however, seen some rebound in these trades.

在這裡，我將翻到第 6 張投影片，對此進行詳細說明。雖然原油拆解已經恢復正常，但受紅海中斷影響最大的航線的貿易量已經失去動力。截至今年年初，中東至歐洲的貿易額與 2024 年前三個季度相比下降了約 40%。較低的貿易量抵消了較長的貿易距離。由此，紅海運輸中斷對噸英里的影響在最近幾個月已經不存在，甚至是負面的。然而，自三月以來，我們看到這些交易有所反彈。

Nevertheless, we believe that such low trade levels are not sustainable, especially considering that European diesel demand this year is supported by increased demand for marine gas oil from the Mediterranean emission control area starting from this month. At the same time, three refineries in Northwest Europe are closing, leading to lower local product supply.

儘管如此，我們認為如此低的貿易水準是不可持續的，特別是考慮到今年歐洲的柴油需求受到本月開始的地中海排放控制區對船用柴油需求增加的支持。與此同時，西北歐的三家煉油廠正在關閉，導致當地產品供應下降。

According to our calculations, Europe is about to lose around 140,000 barrels per day of combined diesel and jet fuel supply by the end of this year. If all of this were replaced by imported fuels from the Middle East, this will translate into an additional demand of 12 LR2 equivalents per year, which is a conservative estimate based on the Red Sea transit. This corresponds to around 5% of the current CPP trading LR2 fleet. At the same time, since the start of the fourth quarter last year, 24 newbuild LR2s have entered the fleet, while the size of the CPP trading fleet has actually declined by around 20 vessels. This means that more than 40 vessels have left the clean trade and are now trading dirty instead.

根據我們的計算，到今年年底，歐洲每天將損失約 14 萬桶柴油和航空燃料供應。如果所有這些都用從中東進口的燃料來替代，這將意味著每年額外需要 12 艘 LR2 當量燃料，這是基於紅海運輸的保守估計。這相當於目前 CPP 交易 LR2 船隊的 5% 左右。同時，自去年第四季初以來，已有24艘新建LR2型油輪加入船隊，而CPP貿易船隊的規模實際上減少了​​約20艘。這意味著已有 40 多艘船隻退出清潔燃料貿易，轉而從事污染燃料貿易。

Please turn to slide 7. Looking a bit further ahead, the product tanker market is expected to continue to be driven by geopolitical factors and high uncertainty. While a sustainable return of the Red Sea shipping in the near term is uncertain, we estimate that it could encourage trade and return the volumes lost since the end of last year. The return of lost trade volumes can potentially offset shorter trade distances and at the same time, incentives for crude cleanups would decline.

請翻到幻燈片 7。展望未來，成品油油輪市場預計將繼續受到地緣政治因素和高度不確定性的驅動。雖然紅海航運近期能否持續恢復尚不確定，但我們估計，這可能會促進貿易，並恢復自去年年底以來的運輸量損失。貿易量的恢復可能會抵消貿易距離的縮短，同時，原油清理的動力也會下降。

When it comes to EU sanctions against Russia, we do not foresee a quick abolishment of these. And the last months have shown that the prospects for a peace settlement remain highly uncertain. Further to this, internal disputes within OPEC+ have resulted in a sizable production increase in May and another one in June, accelerating the timeline for unwinding voluntary production costs. With the potential to continue this trend, we expect this to have a favorable effect on the crude tanker market indirectly supporting product tankers.

至於歐盟對俄羅斯的製裁，我們預計這些制裁不會很快取消。過去幾個月的情況表明，和平解決的前景仍然充滿不確定性。此外，OPEC+內部的爭端導致5月份和6月份產量大幅增加，加速了取消自願生產成本的時間表。由於這一趨勢有可能持續下去，我們預期這將對原油油輪市場產生有利影響，間接支持成品油油輪市場。

Last but definitely not least, a new layer of uncertainty stems from the current US administration's approach towards geopolitics and trade policy. Although it has caused a lot of uncertainty, the measures implemented so far are not expected to have any major direct effect on the product tanker market. However, a potential slowdown in global economic activity and consequently, lower oil demand can have indirect effects on our market.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，美國現任政府的地緣政治和貿易政策方針帶來了新的不確定性。儘管這造成了許多不確定性，但迄今為止實施的措施預計不會對成品油輪市場產生任何重大的直接影響。然而，全球經濟活動可能放緩，從而導致石油需求下降，這可能會對我們的市場產生間接影響。

On the other hand, the US administration's more tough approach towards Iran, towards Venezuela is expected to indirectly benefit product tankers via strong crude tanker markets. The much discussed USTR Section 301 port fee has currently been revised to a version, which will not have any material impact on the product tanker market as the majority of voyages will avoid the fee.

另一方面，美國政府對伊朗、委內瑞拉採取更強硬的態度，預計將透過強勁的原油油輪市場間接使成品油油輪受益。備受討論的美國貿易代表辦公室第 301 條港口費目前已修訂為新版本，該版本不會對成品油輪市場產生任何實質性影響，因為大多數航次將免收該費用。

Please turn to slide 8. Let me also turn to the tonnage supply side. And as we pointed out earlier, the relatively high product tanker order book should be seen in combination with the fact that the average age of the fleet is the highest in two decades. With 15% of the fleet being more than 20 years old, this will potentially offset a large part of the fleet growth in the coming years. Furthermore, we see that as vessels turn towards 20 years of age, their average utilization drops significantly compared to younger vessels. That will lead to a growing share of the fleet operating at lower utilization.

請翻到第 8 張投影片。我還想談談噸位供應方面。正如我們之前指出的，成品油油輪訂單量相對較高，應該結合船隊平均船齡達到二十年來最高水平這一事實來看待。由於 15% 的船隊船齡超過 20 年，這可能會抵消未來幾年船隊成長的很大一部分。此外，我們發現，隨著船舶船齡接近20年，其平均利用率與年輕船舶相比大幅下降。這將導致越來越多的船隊以較低的利用率運作。

In addition, a large share of especially the older fleet is sanctioned, which is expected to support exits from the market. This is especially the case for the combined LR2 Aframax fleet, where a relatively large share of the fleet is under US sanctions. Finally, the ordering of new vessels has basically come to a standstill this year, with the combined capacity of LR1s, LR2s and MRs ordered in the first quarter of this year at the lowest quarterly levels in three years.

此外，很大一部分船隊，尤其是老舊船隊，受到製裁，預計這將支持其退出市場。對於合併後的 LR2 阿芙拉型油輪船隊來說尤其如此，該船隊中很大一部分受到美國的製裁。最後，今年新船訂購基本上陷入停滯，今年第一季LR1型、LR2型和MR型油輪訂購總量處於三年來的季度最低水平。

Now, kindly turn to slide 9. To sum up on the market, we continue to operate in an environment characterized by high geopolitical uncertainty where the speed of change has increased significantly. While fleet growth will gain pace compared to recent years, we still see favorable developments in the refinery landscape. I'm certain that TORM is well positioned to maneuver in this environment of increased uncertainty through our strong capital structure, operational leverage and integrated platform.

現在，請翻到投影片 9。總結市場，我們繼續在一個地緣政治不確定性較高的環境中運營，並且變化的速度顯著加快。儘管與近年來相比，船隊成長速度將加快，但我們仍然看到煉油廠前景良好。我確信，憑藉我們強大的資本結構、營運槓桿和整合平台，TORM 完全有能力在這種不確定性日益增加的環境中游刃有餘。

And now with that, I'll hand it over to Kim, who will walk us through the financials.

現在，我將把時間交給 Kim，他將向我們介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Jacob.

謝謝你，雅各。

Now, please turn to slide 11 for an overview of the financials. In the quarter, our TCE amounted to USD214 million. And based on this, we achieved USD136 million in EBITDA and USD63 million in net profit. Fleet-wide, we averaged TCE rates of close to USD27,000 per day with LR2s close to USD34,000 per day, LR1s at USD25,000 and MRs slightly below this. All these numbers are in line with the 84% coverage that we published in connection with our full-year results in March. Thus, freight rates have stabilized at a level compared to Q4 2024, reflecting strong underlying fundamentals.

現在，請翻到第 11 張投影片來查看財務概況。本季度，我們的TCE達到2.14億美元。在此基礎上，我們實現了1.36億美元的EBITDA和6,300萬美元的淨利。就整個船隊而言，我們的平均 TCE 費率接近每天 27,000 美元，其中 LR2 型油輪接近每天 34,000 美元，LR1 型油輪為每天 25,000 美元，MR 型油輪則略低於此。所有這些數字都與我們 3 月發布的全年業績 84% 的覆蓋率一致。因此，與 2024 年第四季相比，運費已穩定在一定水平，反映出強勁的基本面。

This renewed stability offers a solid foundation as we move throughout the year, with our earnings remaining highly sensitive to market volatility due to our operational leverage. Based on this, TORM achieved basic earnings per share for Q1 of USD0.64 per share, and the Board has decided to declare a dividend of USD0.40 per share. We believe that our approach ensures that distributions align with actual financial performance, maintaining a disciplined, transparent and sustainable capital allocation strategy.

這種新的穩定性為我們全年的發展提供了堅實的基礎，由於我們的營運槓桿，我們的收益對市場波動仍然高度敏感。基於此，TORM 在第一季實現每股基本收益 0.64 美元，董事會決定宣布每股股息 0.40 美元。我們相信，我們的方法可確保分配與實際財務表現保持一致，從而保持嚴謹、透明和可持續的資本配置策略。

Please turn to slide 12. On this slide, we show the quarter-by-quarter development of our TCE since the first quarter of 2024. Looking back, it is now clear how the elevated freight rates in the first half of 2024 gave way to softer conditions later in the year, impacting our overall performance. Today, freight rates have stabilized at a lower but still healthy level that supports solid financial performance. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, ton-mile demand fundamentals remain supportive, although we remain mindful that conditions can shift quickly.

請翻到第 12 張投影片。在這張投影片中，我們展示了自 2024 年第一季以來 TCE 的逐季發展。回顧過去，現在很清楚的是，2024 年上半年的運費上漲是如何導致當年晚些時候的運費走軟的，從而影響了我們的整體業績。如今，運費已穩定在較低但仍健康的水平，支撐了穩健的財務表現。儘管地緣政治不確定性持續存在，噸英里需求基本面仍然具有支撐作用，儘管我們仍然意識到情況可能會迅速改變。

In this market, we generated TCE of USD214 million and EBITDA of USD136 million based on a fleet-wide rate of USD26,807 per day. As a reminder, due to our operational leverage, a change of USD1,000 in day freight rates would have an EBITDA impact of approximately USD8 million per quarter based on around 8,000 earning days. This highlights the significant earnings sensitivity to freight rate movements, which remains a key consideration for our financial outlook.

在這個市場中，我們以全船隊每天 26,807 美元的費率計算，創造了 2.14 億美元的 TCE 和 1.36 億美元的 EBITDA。提醒一下，由於我們的營運槓桿，每天的運費變動 1,000 美元將對 EBITDA 產生每季約 800 萬美元的影響（基於約 8,000 個獲利日）。這凸顯了獲利對運費變動的敏感性，這仍然是我們財務前景的關鍵考慮因素。

Likewise, on slide 13, we provide a breakdown of the quarterly development in net profit and the key share-related ratios. While the current freight rate environment has led to a sequential decline in net profit, earnings per share and consequently, dividend per share, it is important to emphasize that earnings remain at historically attractive levels. Also, our approach to shareholder returns remained firm and consistent. We continue to return excess liquidity on a quarterly basis, while safeguarding financial strength through a disciplined buffer.

同樣，在第 13 張投影片上，我們提供了淨利季度發展和主要股票相關比率的細目分類。儘管當前的運費環境導致淨利潤、每股收益以及每股股息連續下降，但必須強調的是，收益仍處於歷史上有吸引力的水平。此外，我們對股東回報的態度依然堅定且一致。我們繼續按季度返還過剩流動性，同時透過嚴格的緩衝來維護財務實力。

Our liquidity threshold is based on two components; a fixed minimum of USD1.8 per vessel and a discretionary element determined by the Board, which considers capital structure, future investment needs and overall market sentiment. For the first quarter, this disciplined approach has resulted in a declared dividend of USD0.40 per share, in line with our free cash flow, net of debt repayments, reflecting both our earnings performance and our continued commitment to responsible capital allocation.

我們的流動性門檻基於兩個要素；每艘船的最低固定投資額為 1.8 美元，此外還有董事會根據資本結構、未來投資需求和整體市場情緒確定的自由裁量權。第一季度，這種嚴謹的策略使我們宣布每股派息 0.40 美元，與我們的自由現金流一致，扣除債務償還額，反映了我們的盈利表現和對負責任的資本配置的持續承諾。

And now please turn to slide 14. As illustrated on this slide, following several quarters of steadily rising vessel values, we saw the first correction in Q4 last year, and that trend has continued into Q1 2025. Average broker valuations for our fleet declined to USD3.1 billion, down 12% compared to year-end, aligning more closely with actual market transactions. The largest valuation drop has been in older vessels from 2010 to 2012 with a reduction of up to 18%, while newer tonnage has held up relatively well, showing only single-digit declines.

現在請翻到第 14 張投影片。正如這張投影片所示，在船舶價值連續幾季穩定上漲之後，我們在去年第四季看到了第一次調整，這種趨勢一直持續到 2025 年第一季。我們船隊的平均經紀人估值下降至 31 億美元，較年底下降 12%，與實際市場交易更接近。2010 年至 2012 年間，老舊船舶的估值跌幅最大，高達 18%，而較新的船舶則保持得相對較好，僅出現個位數的跌幅。

Turning to the center chart. Our net interest-bearing debt now stands at USD832 million, with a stable net loan-to-value of 27% before distribution of dividends for Q4 2024. This is consistent with year-end and underscoring the strength of our conservative capital structure. On the right, you will find our debt maturity profile. So over the next 12 months, we only have USD162 million in borrowings maturing, equal to 13% of the total, plus USD14 million in committed scrubber installations. Beyond that, our obligations remain manageable with no major maturities until mid-2029. Altogether, our solid financial foundation gives us flexibility to navigate current market conditions and to pursue value-creating opportunities as they arise.

轉向中心圖表。我們的淨計息債務目前為 8.32 億美元，在 2024 年第四季分配股息之前，淨貸款價值比穩定為 27%。這與年底的情況一致，並強調了我們保守的資本結構的優勢。在右側，您會看到我們的債務到期情況。因此，在未來 12 個月內，我們只有 1.62 億美元的借款到期，佔總數的 13%，另外還有 1,400 萬美元的承諾洗滌器安裝。除此之外，我們的債務仍然可控，直到 2029 年中期都沒有重大債務到期。總而言之，我們堅實的財務基礎使我們能夠靈活地應對當前的市場狀況並抓住出現的創造價值的機會。

And now please turn to slide 15 for the outlook. Our performance in the first quarter puts us on a solid path to achieving our full-year guidance. Also, based on our rates and coverage as of 5th May 2025, we have fixed a total of 57% of our earning days at USD28,026 per day in the second quarter across the fleet. Likewise, for the full-year 2025, we have now fixed a total of 43% of our earning days at $27,829 per day. That said, we continue to operate in a volatile geopolitical environment, and we recognize that actual results may deviate depending on how key events unfold.

現在請翻到第 15 張投影片來了解展望。我們第一季的業績為我們實現全年目標奠定了堅實的基礎。此外，根據截至 2025 年 5 月 5 日的費率和覆蓋範圍，我們已將第二季整個船隊的獲利天數總計 57%，為每天 28,026 美元。同樣，對於 2025 年全年，我們目前已將 43% 的收入天數固定為每天 27,829 美元。儘管如此，我們仍在動盪的地緣政治環境中運營，我們認識到實際結果可能會因關鍵事件的發展而有所不同。

Nevertheless, we are comfortable in narrowing the guidance range compared to the guidance provided to the market two months ago. Thus, we forecast full-year TCE earnings in the range of USD700 million to USD900 million compared to the previous guidance of USD650 million to USD950 million. Likewise, we narrowed the range for our expected EBITDA to USD400 million to USD600 million compared to the previous guidance of USD350 million to USD650 million. This outlook incorporates an expected year-over-year decline in freight rates aligned with both current spot rates and the forward market trends.

儘管如此，與兩個月前向市場提供的指引相比，我們仍願意縮小指引範圍。因此，我們預測全年 TCE 收益將在 7 億至 9 億美元之間，而先前的預期為 6.5 億至 9.5 億美元。同樣，我們將預期 EBITDA 範圍從先前的 3.5 億至 6.5 億美元縮小至 4 億至 6 億美元。這項展望考慮到了與當前現貨價格和遠期市場趨勢一致的預計運費同比下降。

And with this, I conclude my remarks and hand it back to the operator.

至此，我結束發言並將其交還給接線員。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jon Chappell, Evercore ISI.

喬恩‧查佩爾 (Jon Chappell)，Evercore ISI。

Jacob, you laid out a bunch of different geopolitical and macro uncertainties and maybe the different paths forward. No offense, but I imagine you don't have any better idea on how many of these things are going to play out than we do. So knowing what you can control, which is capital allocation, capital structure, vessel sales, purchases, chartering, et cetera, has there been any shift to any of those strategies, financial or operational than maybe 12 months ago, just given all of these different moving parts and the different somewhat binary outcomes?

雅各布，你列舉了一系列不同的地緣政治和宏觀不確定性，以及可能不同的前進道路。無意冒犯，但我想你對這些事情將會發生多少的了解並不比我們更清楚。那麼，了解了您可以控制的內容，即資本配置、資本結構、船舶銷售、採購、租船等，考慮到所有這些不同的活動部分和不同的二元結果，與 12 個月前相比，這些策略（財務或營運）是否有任何轉變？

That's a good question. I would say on the financial side, really, it's really extremely stable. I mean, we keep the discipline and we also sort of keep the discipline around where our cash is headed when we deliver the strong results like in this quarter. So, I would say on that. On the business side, I think we are -- as I also alluded to, I think we are seeing that, that I think we are gradually sort of meeting a new normalization of the freight rate compared to where we were a year ago. And that in this more normalized environment, I think it's time to maybe take a calculator out again and see what makes sense in terms of the fleet composition. But it's probably a little early.

這是個好問題。我想說，從財務方面來看，它確實非常穩定。我的意思是，當我們像本季一樣取得強勁業績時，我們會保持紀律，並且我們也會保持對現金流向的紀律。所以，我想這麼說。在業務方面，我認為我們——正如我提到的那樣，我認為我們看到，與一年前相比，我們正在逐漸實現運費的新正常化。在這個更正常化的環境下，我認為也許是時候再次拿出計算器，看看船隊組成是否合理。但這可能還為時過早。

We've divested, as we normally do, when vessels are of a vintage, which is not really servicing our clients that well, which is around the 20 years. We've done that this year. I think we'll continue to do that. And then it's really up to Mr. Market to see what comes out of opportunities in terms of acquiring assets. We haven't seen anything yet that is also transpiring to be interesting, but obviously, in a normalized rate environment, that could be something to look at. Early days, but I think that's probably the changes.

當船舶年齡較大（約 20 年）且無法很好地為我們的客戶提供服務時，我們會像往常一樣進行剝離。今年我們已經這樣做了。我想我們會繼續這樣做。然後就真的要由市場先生來判斷收購資產會出現什麼機會了。我們還沒有看到任何有趣的事情發生，但顯然，在正常化的利率環境下，這可能是值得關注的事情。雖然還處於早期階段，但我認為這可能就是改變。

Okay. Two quick follow-ups to that. One, the payout ratio on the IFRS earnings was about 64% for the dividend in the first quarter. Is that just coincidentally lower than the last several quarters? Or does that somewhat reflect maybe a bit of the uncertainty going forward?

好的。對此有兩個快速的後續行動。第一，第一季的股息支付率約為 64%。這是否只是巧合地低於前幾季？或者這在某種程度上反映了未來的一些不確定性？

And then the second follow-up is you had mentioned in your prepared remarks, somewhat -- I don't know what the right term is, but maybe less liquidity in the second-hand market. As you talk about that fleet path going forward, do you envision that, that second-hand market may gain more liquidity in the near term? Or do you think it may be status quo in the industry for the next six or so months until we get a little bit more clarity on some of these outcomes?

然後第二個後續問題是您在準備好的發言中提到的，有點——我不知道正確的說法是什麼，但也許是二手市場的流動性較低。當您談論未來的車隊發展路徑時，您是否認為二手市場在短期內可能會獲得更多的流動性？或者您認為在接下來的六個月左右的時間裡，這可能是行業現狀，直到我們對其中一些結果有了更清晰的了解？

Yes. Good. So let me start with your second follow-up question, and I'll let Kim talk to the first. So, I think what we are seeing is that in a market where the secondary sales are less frequent, so lower liquidity as we discussed. Then what has served us really well is that the vessels that we have, which we keep in-house, we have the technical and everything operational sort of under the control of ourselves has meant that the type of buyers that are active in this relatively illiquid market, they gravitate towards the type of vessels that we've got because they are maintained to a standard where they can actually meet any customers' requirements on any day.

是的。好的。那麼，讓我先回答您的第二個後續問題，然後讓 Kim 回答第一個問題。所以，我認為我們看到的是，在二級銷售不太頻繁的市場中，流動性較低，正如我們所討論的那樣。對我們真正有利的是，我們擁有的船隻都是內部保存的，我們對所有技術和操作都控制在自己的手中，這意味著活躍在這個流動性相對不足的市場上的買家會傾向於我們擁有的船隻類型，因為它們的維護標準可以滿足任何一天客戶的要求。

So, I actually don't need so much to qualify whether there will be more liquidity because what we are seeing is that there is a low liquidity, but it's sufficient for us to transact the deals that we want to do. I do think that as the market sort of normalizes, I would be inclined to think that you will see more meeting of minds between buyers and sellers. But irrespective, that is my expectation over the coming months that we will see sort of that to normalize more.

因此，我實際上不需要太多地限定是否會有更多的流動性，因為我們看到的是流動性較低，但這足以讓我們進行我們想要的交易。我確實認為，隨著市場逐漸正常化，我傾向於認為你會看到買家和賣家之間更多的思想交流。但無論如何，我期望在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將看到這種情況更加正常化。

Jon, it's Kim. Regarding the payout ratio, of course, there's one thing that you can adjust for that is we have the impact of the sale of vessels. So if you take that out, of course, you can normalize it a bit and then we are above 70%, probably more like 73%, 74%. But the way we do it is consistent with what we have done throughout this whole period until -- ever since we changed the dividend policy actually. So, I think you alluded to the right thing. It is more working capital fluctuations that can deviate a bit.

喬恩，我是金。關於派息率，當然，有一件事你可以調整，那就是我們受到船舶出售的影響。因此，如果你把它拿出來，當然，你可以稍微正常化它，然後我們就會超過 70%，可能更像是 73%、74%。但我們的做法與我們整個期間的做法一致，直到——自從我們實際上改變股息政策以來。所以，我認為你提到的是正確的。更多的是營運資本波動，可能會有一點偏差。

So one quarter can be 74%, another quarter 79% or 72%. So, that is where you shall sort of see the slight deviations. We basically not changed anything. But of course, as Jacob also said, that the conservativeness that we have when we divest vessels where we basically just keep the cash, that, of course, has a little impact on the payout ratio. And we've done that consistently throughout the whole period. So, we just maintain it on the balance sheet. And for that, therefore, you can see some deviations. But you should find it in the working capital because it's the same methodology we use every quarter.

因此一個季度可能是 74%，另一個季度可能是 79% 或 72%。因此，您將看到一些細微的偏差。我們基本上沒有改變任何東西。但當然，正如雅各所說，我們在剝離船隻時採取的保守態度基本上只保留現金，這當然對派息率有一點影響。我們在整個期間都始終如一地這樣做。因此，我們只是將其保留在資產負債表上。因此，您可以看到一些偏差。但您應該在營運資金中找到它，因為它是我們每個季度使用的相同方法。

Bendik Nyttingnes, Clarksons.

本迪克‧尼廷內斯 (Bendik Nyttingnes)，克拉克森 (Clarksons)。

I'll jump on the market, I think. So, we were talking about there essentially being no real support from the Red Sea disruption recently. And with -- I think the US President tweeting that there is a deal with the Houthis going on, while that is still a bit up in the air. How do you view sort of the market in the event of a reopening? Should we expect some disruptions and movement on cost rates in the short term in the event of a reopening?

我想我會進入這個市場。所以，我們談論的是最近紅海事件基本上沒有提供真正的支持。而且——我認為美國總統在推特上表示，正在與胡塞武裝達成協議，但目前這項協議仍懸而未決。如果重新開放，您如何看待市場？如果重新開放，我們是否應該預期短期內會出現一些中斷和成本率變動？

Yes. I mean, time will tell on both parameters, whether there is a deal that we can all trust with the Houthis. But let's just make the assumption that, that is actually the case, then what will happen with the market. I think what we are seeing with our customers, we had a client meeting actually earlier this week with one of the largest producers of oil in the world. And their team on the sales said, they couldn't really recall when it was last that the arbitrage for them was open for the diesel going -- moving from Middle East into Europe. So right now, the producers are really not incentivized to hold bigger volumes of diesel from Middle East into Europe.

是的。我的意思是，時間將證明這兩個參數，我們是否可以與胡塞武裝達成一項值得信任的協議。但我們假設事實確實如此，那麼市場會發生什麼事？我認為我們在客戶身上看到的是，本週早些時候我們實際上與世界上最大的石油生產商之一舉行了一次客戶會議。他們的銷售團隊表示，他們真的記不清上次從中東到歐洲的柴油套利機會是什麼時候了。因此，目前生產商確實沒有動力將大量柴油從中東運往歐洲。

You will, of course, have the odd trade that needs to be done, but sort of the marginal trade is not done. I think it would actually -- in that sense, in the short end, I think you would see a reopening of the Red Sea that you would have more demand coming quite quickly because we would definitely be much more supported by that particular trade route. But I do think that if we sort of average out over a longer period, then I think it is demand neutral. I don't think that it is going up or down as such. But I think there would be kind of an immediate kind of flurry of cargoes that could move quite fast in the case of that you had a reopening.

當然，你會有一些需要完成的奇怪交易，但某種邊際交易卻沒有完成。我認為實際上——從這個意義上講，從短期來看，我認為你會看到紅海重新開放，你很快就會有更多的需求，因為我們肯定會從那條特定的貿易路線上獲得更多的支持。但我確實認為，如果我們在較長時期內平均下來，那麼我認為需求是中性的。我不認為它會上升或下降。但我認為，如果重新開放，貨物運輸將會立即出現激增，而且速度可能會相當快。

Jae Mcgarry, Jefferies.

麥加里（Jae Mcgarry），傑富瑞集團（Jefferies）。

Just had a market question. You mentioned the supply and how it can play out down the road given the current fleet age and maybe some scrapping down the line. But just for now, the LR2 deliveries certainly coming in more so than previous years. Can you describe just the impact in today's market with that oncoming supply, just how noticeable is it and if you see those ships staying in the clean trade or switching over?

剛剛有一個市場問題。您提到了供應問題，以及考慮到目前船隊的年齡以及未來可能出現的報廢情況，供應問題將如何發展。但就目前而言，LR2 的交付量肯定比前幾年要多。您能否描述一下這種即將到來的供應對當今市場的影響，它有多明顯，以及您是否看到這些船隻繼續在清潔貿易中航行或轉換航線？

Yes. Well, at least going forward, we don't know yet. But if we just take the data points that we had on hand from, let's say, the last couple of quarters, then as you point to, there is more LR2 newbuilds that has sort of been placed and that are labeled on the ordering and sort of out of the yard as here comes a new LR2. And as I alluded to a little in the prepared remarks also, we saw that you had globally around 250 LR2s that were trading as clean vessels in the end of the third quarter last year, whereas as of today, right now, as we speak, you probably have around 230. So actually, the number have declined by 20.

是的。好吧，至少未來我們還不知道。但是，如果我們只獲取過去幾個季度手頭上的數據點，那麼正如您所指出的，有更多的 LR2 新建船已被放置並在訂單上貼上標籤，並且已經駛出船廠，因為這裡有一艘新的 LR2。正如我在準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們發現去年第三季末全球大約有 250 艘 LR2 作為清潔船進行交易，而截至今天，現在，正如我們所說，可能只有大約 230 艘。因此實際上，數量減少了 20。

And in the interim period, you've had exactly as you point to, you've had about 24 newbuild deliveries of this type of vessel. So if the world was flat, we would today say, okay, you had 250 clean trading vessels, you added 24 newbuilds, so you would have 274. But actually, trading is 230. Going forward, of course, what we believe is that you should look upon LR2 and Afra as an integrated trade. The shipowners, the investors, they are not that caring about whether the vessel as they come out of a yard will enter one market or the other. What they care about what is the return on investment.

在此期間，正如您所指出的，您已經接收了大約 24 艘此類新船。因此，如果世界是平的，我們今天會說，好吧，你有 250 艘清潔貿易船，你增加了 24 艘新船，所以你會有 274 艘。但實際上，交易是230。當然，展望未來，我們認為您應該將 LR2 和 Afra 視為一項綜合貿易。船東、投資者並不太關心他們造出的船是否會進入某個市場。他們關心的是投資報酬率是多少。

And that's, of course, also how we operate our LR2 fleet. We will, from time-to-time, operate in clean. We will from time-to-time, operate as an Afra. And I think this swing factor will be very dominant going forward. And obviously, given that the age profile of the Aframax fleet globally is much more prone to that -- this is older vessels, you will see that there will be more scrapping potential as new vessels come into the market. So, I think this market is actually much more finely balanced than what sort of the labeling of the ships, i.e., that we only have LR2s coming out of yards. Well, they may be coming into the CPP market, but they may just as well be trading as Aframaxes. And I think the data points that we've had, as I just pointed to over the last six months, nine months, actually sort of points to that, that is a fair way to think about that market.

當然，這也是我們營運 LR2 船隊的方式。我們將不時地在清潔的環境中開展工作。我們會不時地以 Afra 的身份進行活動。我認為這個搖擺因素在未來將佔據主導地位。顯然，考慮到全球阿芙拉型油輪船隊的船齡更容易出現這種情況——這些都是較老的船隻，隨著新船進入市場，你會發現報廢的可能性會更大。因此，我認為這個市場實際上比船舶的標籤更加平衡，即我們只有 LR2 從船廠出來。好吧，他們可能會進入 CPP 市場，但他們也可能像阿芙拉型油輪一樣進行交易。我認為，正如我剛才指出的，過去六個月、九個月的數據點實際上表明了這一點，這是思考該市場的一種公平方式。

I will now turn the call back over to Jacob Meldgaard, CEO, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

現在我將把電話轉回給執行長 Jacob Meldgaard，請他作最後發言。請繼續。

Yes. Thanks a lot, Janice. Thanks for everyone for dialing in to the first quarter 2025 results presentation. Have a great day.

是的。非常感謝，珍妮絲。感謝大家收聽 2025 年第一季業績報告。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝大家的加入。您現在可以斷開連線。