Torm PLC (TRMD) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to the TORM First Six Months and Second Quarter 2024 Results Call.

歡迎參加 TORM 2024 年前六個月和第二季業績電話會議。

Please note that today’s call is being recorded.

請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

(Operator Instructions) Thank you.

（操作員說明）謝謝。

I will now turn the call over to Jacob Meldgaard, CEO.

我現在將把電話轉給執行長雅各布·梅爾德加德 (Jacob Meldgaard)。

Please go ahead, sir.

請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and thank you everybody for joining us on this call today.

謝謝大家，也謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

This morning, we released our company announcement with the results for the second quarter of the year, and I’m pleased to report that again this quarter TORM has achieved a strong financial performance.

今天早上，我們發布了公司公告，其中包含今年第二季度的業績，我很高興地報告，本季度 TORM 再次取得了強勁的財務業績。

Our time charter equivalent earnings increased to $326 million and EBITDA improved to $251 million as freight rates remained firm throughout most of the quarter.

由於本季大部分時間運價維持堅挺，我們的定期租船等值收入增至 3.26 億美元，EBITDA 增至 2.51 億美元。

Again, we had witnessed a continuation of the market dynamics that we’ve seen in the previous quarters, i.e. geopolitical tension stemming from both the Ukraine and Russian conflict and the escalating confrontations in the Middle East that leads to rerouting of vessels, longer voyages and higher ton-mile demand.

我們再次目睹了前幾個季度市場動態的延續，即烏克蘭和俄羅斯衝突引發的地緣政治緊張局勢以及中東不斷升級的對抗，導致船隻改道、航程更長和更高的噸英里需求。

This, of course, adds to an already tight supply demand balance in the product tanker market.

當然，這加劇了成品油輪市場本已緊張的供需平衡。

We remain optimistic about the prospects for the coming years as we believe that the supportive fundamentals for the positive rate environment is likely to stay intact.

我們對未來幾年的前景保持樂觀，因為我們相信積極利率環境的支持性基本面可能會保持不變。

Thus, we expect longer ton-mile, higher utilization rates in the years to come and at the same time, manageable newbuilding deliveries.

因此，我們預計未來幾年的噸英里更長、利用率更高，同時新船交付量也易於管理。

Consequently and in-line with what you have seen in previous quarters, in early July, we entered into an agreement to acquire additional second-hand vessels.

因此，與您在前幾個季度所看到的情況一致，我們在 7 月初達成了一項購買更多二手船的協議。

This time, eight MR vessels to be delivered during the second half of this year for a total consideration of $340 million.

此次，8艘MR船將於今年下半年交付，總價值3.4億美元。

The vessels have all been built at Hyundai Mipo Dockyard in 2014, 2015, and six of the vessels have been fitted with scrubbers.

這些船舶均於2014年、2015年在現代尾浦造船廠建造，其中六艘船舶已安裝脫硫塔。

And, then as you would expect us to do when our vessels reach a certain age, we have divested one 2006-built MR tanker for delivery in the third quarter 2024 for a cash consideration of $23.3 million.

然後，正如您期望我們在船舶達到一定船齡時所做的那樣，我們剝離了一艘 2006 年建造的 MR 油輪，將於 2024 年第三季度交付，現金代價為 2,330 萬美元。

Thus, adding it all together, we are both expanding and replenishing our fleet.

因此，將所有這些加在一起，我們正在擴大和補充我們的機隊。

And, as we’ve done for some time now, we are using our partner share-based structure to finance the transaction.

而且，正如我們一段時間以來所做的那樣，我們正在利用合作夥伴的股份結構來為交易提供資金。

By continuing this way forward, we believe that TORM will be in a strong position to further add to our value creation over the coming years.

透過繼續沿著這條道路前進，我們相信 TORM 將處於有利地位，在未來幾年進一步增加我們的價值創造。

All-in-all, this has been a very satisfactory quarter and in-line with our intention of distributing the cash flow net of debt repayment, TORM has declared a dividend for the quarter of $1.80 per share, thus adding to the positive dividend yield seen over the recent quarters.

總而言之，這是一個非常令人滿意的季度，符合我們分配扣除債務償還後的現金流量的意圖，TORM 宣布本季度股息為每股 1.80 美元，從而增加了正股息收益率最近幾個季度看到的。

And here, please turn to slide 5.

在這裡，請翻到投影片 5。

In the past two and a half years, geopolitical tensions, first in Europe then in the Middle East have led to the product tanker rates increasing to a new higher average level.

在過去的兩年半中，地緣政治緊張局勢（首先是歐洲，然後是中東）導致成品油輪運價上升至新的平均水平。

At the same time, we’re also seeing increased volatility in rates as the fleet utilization has moved closer to full utilization.

同時，隨著機隊利用率接近充分利用率，我們也發現費率波動性加大。

Please turn to slide 6.

請翻到幻燈片 6。

The main impact of this view of these geopolitical tensions has been a reshaped product tanker trade towards longer distances.

這種對地緣政治緊張局勢的看法的主要影響是重塑了成品油輪貿易的遠距離運輸。

All while, overall trade volumes have risen supported by increasing oil demand and changing in refinery landscape.

同時，在石油需求增加和煉油廠格局變化的支持下，整體貿易量有所上升。

The EU sanctions against Russia in 2023 led to a trade rerouting towards longer haul trade, both for European imports, but also for Russian exports.

2023 年歐盟對俄羅斯的製裁導致貿易轉向長途貿易，無論是歐洲進口或俄羅斯出口。

This year, the product tanker market has been strongly affected by the Houthi attacks against commercial vessels at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

今年，成品油輪市場受到胡塞武裝在曼德海峽襲擊商船的嚴重影響。

The share of global clean petroleum products trade transiting the Suez Canal has declined from 12% to only 4%, meaning 8% of the global trade has been redirected.

通過蘇伊士運河的全球清潔石油產品貿易份額已從 12% 下降至僅 4%，這意味著全球貿易的 8% 已被重新定向。

The majority of this is going a longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

其中大部分是繞過好望角的較長路線。

While the Middle East situation is very dynamic, the recent escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel suggests that the time line for disruption continues to be drawn out.

儘管中東局勢瞬息萬變，但最近伊朗和以色列之間衝突的升級表明，破壞的時間線仍在延長。

Now please turn to slide 7 for a closer look at the market development here in the second quarter of the year.

現在請翻到投影片 7，詳細了解今年第二季的市場發展。

In the second quarter of the year, trade volumes with refined oil products increased by 2% compared to the same quarter last year, supported by higher oil demand and recent changes in the refinery landscape.

今年第二季度，受石油需求增加和煉油廠格局近期變化的支撐，成品油貿易量較去年同期成長2%。

Together with the longer trading businesses, this has led to an overall increase in ton-mile demand for product tankers.

加上更長的貿易業務，這導致成品油輪的噸英里需求總體增加。

At the same time, earnings for larger crude tankers have been subdued both seasonally, but also given the fact that VLCCs have not directly benefited from geopolitical drivers.

同時，大型原油油輪的獲利受到季節性因素的影響，而且考慮到超大型油輪並未直接受益於地緣政治驅動因素。

This has led to a cleanup of a number of VLCCs and Suezmax since the end of second quarter.

自第二季末以來，這導致了一些超大型油輪和蘇伊士型油輪的清理。

However, as we move towards the fourth quarter, TORM expects a seasonally improving crude tanker market to significantly reduce incentives for crude cannibalization at the same time as both seasonality and volatility with continued market disruptions will keep clean trade distances longer.

然而，隨著第四季度的到來，TORM 預計，原油油輪市場的季節性改善將顯著減少原油拆解的動機，同時，季節性和波動性以及持續的市場幹擾將使清潔貿易距離更長。

Please turn to slide 8.

請翻到幻燈片 8。

When we combine the tonnage demand and supply drivers, our calculations show that the product tanker demand supply balance has stayed on a much firmer footing than before the geopolitical tension started.

當我們將噸位需求和供應驅動因素結合起來時，我們的計算表明，成品油輪的需求供應平衡比地緣政治緊張局勢開始之前更加穩固。

After an 8% increase in ton-miles last year, the Red Sea disruption together with organic growth and trade volumes has so far this year added around 10% to ton-mile.

繼去年噸海裡增加 8% 後，紅海破壞加上有機增長和貿易量，今年迄今已使噸海裡增加了約 10%。

This has been front-loaded, but actually more than what we had forecasted.

這是提前加載的，但實際上超出了我們的預測。

What is important to mention here is that ton-mile has grown significantly also on trade not directly related to the Red Sea disruption.

這裡值得一提的是，與紅海破壞沒有直接關係的貿易中的噸英里也顯著增長。

At the same time, net fleet growth has been much more limited.

同時，機隊淨成長更加有限。

The cleanups of both LR2s as well as large crude carriers have increased the supply of tonnage.

LR2 和大型原油運輸船的清理工作增加了噸位供應。

But even with this, the supply growth has been much more limited than the growth in ton-miles.

但即便如此，供應成長仍遠比噸英里成長有限。

Please turn to slide 9.

請翻到投影片 9。

The product tanker ordering at shipyards has picked up after years of subdued newbuilding activity.

經過多年的新造船活動低迷之後，造船廠的成品油輪訂單有所回升。

Currently, the order book stands at 19% of the fleet.

目前，訂單量佔機隊的 19%。

As we have pointed out earlier, newbuilding activity has largely concentrated around the LR2 segment.

正如我們之前指出的，新造船活動主要集中在 LR2 領域。

Given the versatility of the LR2 fleet, which can trade both clean and dirty products, the LR2 order book should be seen in connection with the dirty Aframax order book.

鑑於 LR2 船隊的多功能性，可以交易清潔產品和髒產品，LR2 訂單簿應該與髒阿芙拉型訂單簿聯繫起來。

The combined order book is currently at 17%, which is equal to the share of the combined fleet being candidates through recycling.

目前，合併後的訂單量為 17%，相當於合併後的機隊中透過回收候選的比例。

Furthermore, it’s important to mention that the current order book is spread over four years and with the increasing average delivery time, vessels order today will most likely not be delivered before 2028.

此外，值得一提的是，目前的訂單分佈在四年內，隨著平均交貨時間的增加，今天的船舶訂單很可能不會在 2028 年之前交付。

And, now kindly turn to the next slide, turn to slide 10.

現在請翻到下一張投影片，翻到投影片 10。

When we look further ahead in time, we now expect the potential additional order bring off the product tankers from 2028 onwards to be lower than our previous forecast.

當我們進一步展望未來時，我們現在預計從 2028 年起成品油輪的潛在額外訂單將低於我們先前的預測。

This is predominantly due to Chinese shipyards opting to build container vessels, LNG carriers and other vessel segments where China has strategic import interest.

這主要是由於中國造船廠選擇建造貨櫃船、液化天然氣運輸船和中國具有戰略進口利益的其他船舶領域。

This coincides with a period where an increasing share of the fleet reaches a natural scrapping age.

同時，越來越多的船隊達到了自然報廢年齡。

Should a strong freight market result in less than expected scrapping activity, we still expect older vessels to leave the mainstream market and go into sanctioned or cabotage trade.

如果強勁的貨運市場導致拆船活動低於預期，我們仍然預期舊船將離開主流市場並進入受制裁或沿海貿易。

Please turn to slide 11.

請翻到投影片 11。

Lastly, behind the geopolitical factors that have reshaped refined product industry, there is a refining industry influx.

最後，地緣政治因素重塑成品油產業的背後，是煉油產業的湧入。

In recent years, new refining capacity has been added in net exporting regions such as the Middle East.

近年來，中東等淨出口地區新增煉油產能。

On the other hand, a number of refineries have been closed in net importing regions, for instance, Europe and Australia.

另一方面，歐洲和澳洲等淨進口地區的一些煉油廠已關閉。

This has led to higher trade volumes and higher demand for product tankers.

這導致貿易量增加和對成品油輪的需求增加。

Beyond the already announced closures, the refinery environment remains dynamic.

除了已經宣布的關閉之外，煉油廠環境仍然充滿活力。

The risk of falling utilization rates in mature demand regions raises the likelihood of further capacity closures before the end of the decade.

成熟需求地區利用率下降的風險增加了在本世紀末之前進一步關閉產能的可能性。

Here, especially Europe stands out with older, relatively small, and less complex refineries that are more open to international trade than in other regions.

在這方面，尤其是歐洲，其煉油廠較老、規模相對較小且較不複雜，比其他地區對國際貿易更加開放。

A new wave of refinery closures is likely to again increase trade with refined products.

新一波煉油廠關閉可能會再次增加成品油貿易。

Now, with these comments, I conclude my part of the presentation.

現在，我以這些評論結束我的演講部分。

I’ll hand it over to my colleague, Kim, who will walk us through the financials.

我會將其交給我的同事 Kim，他將引導我們了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Jacob.

謝謝你，雅各。

Now, please turn to slide 12, for the financial highlights.

現在，請翻到投影片 12，了解財務要點。

In the second quarter of the year, our time charter equivalent earnings increased to $326 million, and based on this, we achieved $251 million in EBITDA and $194 million in net profits.

今年第二季度，我們的定期租船等值收益增至 3.26 億美元，在此基礎上，我們實現了 2.51 億美元的 EBITDA 和 1.94 億美元的淨利。

When we adjust for the unrealized gains on derivatives in Q2 2023, the operating result up around 30% year-on-year driven by both the firm freight rate environment and increased relative share of LR2s in our fleet.

當我們調整 2023 年第二季衍生性商品的未實現收益時，由於穩定的運價環境和 LR2 在我們機隊中相對份額的增加，經營業績同比增長了 30% 左右。

TORM achieved fleet wide TCE rates of more than $42,000 per day with LR2s close to $52,000 per day, LR1s at more than $42,000, and MRs at more than $38,000.

TORM 實現了整個機隊的 TCE 率超過每天 42,000 美元，其中 LR2 接近每天 52,000 美元，LR1 超過 42,000 美元，MR 超過 38,000 美元。

It should be noted that spot rates were at a relative high-level in the first part of the quarter, followed by some retreating towards the end of the quarter as season disrupting started.

值得注意的是，即期匯率在本季上半年處於相對較高水平，隨後隨著季節擾亂的開始，即期匯率在季末有所回落。

Our fleet had a total of 7,749 earning days, i.e., a little higher than the 7,451 days we had in the same quarter last year.

我們的機隊共有 7,749 個獲利天數，略高於去年同期的 7,451 個天數。

However, as previously mentioned, with LR2s accounting for relatively higher part of the total compared to last year, we believe these are strong numbers and add together, they reflect a very satisfactory performance enabling us to realize TCE rates per day that have increased by $5,700 compared to Q2 2023.

然而，正如前面提到的，與去年相比，LR2 佔總數的比例相對較高，我們相信這些數字很強勁，加在一起，它們反映了非常令人滿意的表現，使我們能夠實現每天增加5,700美元的TCE 費率與 2023 年第二季相比。

Further, the results that we have produced translate into a return on invested capital of 29.5%, thus underscoring the positive environment in which we are operating.

此外，我們所取得的成果轉化為 29.5% 的投資資本報酬率，凸顯了我們的正向營運環境。

And, as highlighted previously, you should expect us to maintain a stable and conservative financial leverage also in periods where we are increasing our operational leverage as we are using our shares as part of the consideration in connection with acquisitions of business.

而且，正如前面所強調的，您應該期望我們在增加營運槓桿的時期也能保持穩定和保守的財務槓桿，因為我們使用我們的股票作為與業務收購相關的考慮因素的一部分。

Again, this quarter our business is generating significant profit and cash flow and again we remain firmly committed to returning a significant part of our earnings to our shareholders.

同樣，本季我們的業務產生了可觀的利潤和現金流，我們仍然堅定地致力於將大部分收入返還給股東。

Slide 13, please.

請幻燈片 13。

The chart in the upper left illustrates how vessel values have increased over the previous quarters leading to a total value of $3.7 billion and it has a value showing a similar progression reflecting higher broker valuations of the vessels as well as an increased fleet.

左上方的圖表顯示了船舶價值在前幾個季度中的增長情況，導致總價值達到37 億美元，並且其價值也顯示出類似的增長趨勢，反映出經紀人對船舶的估值更高以及船隊的增加。

Also, on this slide we show in the chart in the lower left corner that developed in our net interest-bearing debt, which now amounts to $737 million that’s $157 million lower than a year ago.

此外，在這張投影片中，我們在左下角的圖表中顯示了我們的淨帶息債務，目前淨帶息債務達到 7.37 億美元，比一年前減少了 1.57 億美元。

As we have increased our cash position somewhat and thereby more than offset an increase in our gross debt.

由於我們的現金部位有所增加，因此足以抵銷總債務的增加。

Based on this, we currently stand at a net loan to value ratio of 20.4. However, when subtracting the declared dividend for Q2 then it would be around 25%, but continuing the quarter-by-quarter decline in financial leverage.

基於此，我們目前的淨貸款成數為 20.4。然而，扣除第二季已宣派股息後，數字約為25%，但財務槓桿仍在逐季下降。

Slide 14 please.

請幻燈片 14。

On this slide, we have made an overview of per share development in recent quarters.

在這張投影片上，我們概述了最近幾季的每股發展。

The result we announced today translates into an EPS of $2.08 significantly higher than the same quarter last year.

我們今天公佈的結果意味著 EPS 為 2.08 美元，明顯高於去年同期。

Share count has increased by 10 billion shares over the period since last year driven by our partly share-based transactions and is up from 84.9 to 94.9 over the same period.

在我們部分股權交易的推動下，自去年以來，股票數量增加了 100 億股，同期從 84.9 股增至 94.9 股。

Based on our strong earnings, the Board of Directors has declared a Q2, 2024 dividend of $2.8 per share thus, offering the dividend by $0.30 per share compared to same quarter last year.

基於我們強勁的獲利，董事會宣布 2024 年第二季股息為每股 2.8 美元，與去年同期相比每股股息增加 0.30 美元。

And now, please turn to slide 15.

現在，請翻到投影片 15。

This slide gives you the full overview of the dividend distribution and the key dates to observe.

這張投影片為您提供了股息分配和需要觀察的關鍵日期的完整概述。

Ex-dividend date for the shares on NASDAQ Copenhagen will be on 28 August and for the shares on NASDAQ New York on 29 August as shares are now trading T+1 in New York, but otherwise the same process as usual.

納斯達克哥本哈根股票的除息日為 8 月 28 日，納斯達克紐約股票的除息日為 8 月 29 日，因為該股票目前在紐約進行 T+1 交易，但其他流程與往常相同。

And, now turn to slide 16 for the outlook.

現在轉到幻燈片 16 來了解前景。

Based on the satisfactory results we have published today in the coverage we have for the third quarter of 2024, we increased the low-end of our guidance range with $50 million and thereby narrowing the guidance range reflecting the increased transparency on full-year numbers.

基於我們今天發布的 2024 年第三季報告中令人滿意的結果，我們將指導範圍的下限提高了 5000 萬美元，從而縮小了指導範圍，反映出全年數據透明度的提高。

Thus, we expect TCE earnings for 2024 of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion and EBITDA of $850 million to $1.50 billion.

因此，我們預計 2024 年 TCE 收益為 11.5 億美元至 13.5 億美元，EBITDA 為 8.5 億美元至 15 億美元。

The table shows that we in the third quarter of 2024 expects to have $7,859 earnings days and as of 12 August 2024, we had faced a total of 64% of those at a fleet wide rate of $38,340 per day.

表格顯示，我們預計 2024 年第三季的獲利日為 7,859 美元，截至 2024 年 8 月 12 日，我們的整個車隊的日獲利率為 38,340 美元，總共有 64% 的獲利日。

Further, for the full-year, we are now at 68% coverage at a fleet wide rate of $42,205 per day.

此外，就全年而言，我們現在的覆蓋率達到 68%，整個機隊的費率為每天 42,205 美元。

And with this, I conclude my part of the presentation and I will hand it back to the operator, who will take care of the Q&A session.

至此，我的演示部分就結束了，我會將其交還給操作員，由他負責問答環節。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We will now open the line for your questions.

我們現在將開通您的提問專線。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Jon Chappell, Evercore.

喬恩·查佩爾，Evercore。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Jacob, I hate to start with a big macro one.

雅各布，我討厭從一個大的宏觀開始。

Seasonality makes complete sense.

季節性是完全有道理的。

We’ve seen it many years.

我們已經看到它很多年了。

I think your chart that explained the crude and product was very interesting.

我認為你解釋原油和產品的圖表非常有趣。

But, there is a little bit more, I think, macro uncertainty today.

但是，我認為今天的宏觀不確定性更多。

We’ve seen some softer numbers out of China.

我們看到中國的一些數據較為疲軟。

I think there’s more concern about the consumer in general, IEA estimates for growth coming down.

我認為，總體而言，國際能源總署 (IEA) 對經濟成長的預測有所下降，人們更加擔心這一點。

Your third quarter bookings have been good so far, but do you think that some of the weakness in August could be more than just seasonality, and a little bit more cyclical headwinds, as we think about how we come out of the summer, and into the stronger winter?

到目前為止，你們第三季的預訂量一直不錯，但你們是否認為8 月的一些疲軟可能不僅僅是季節性因素，還有更多的周期性逆風，因為我們正在考慮如何走出夏季並進入夏季。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Jon.

謝謝，喬恩。

Yes, certainly.

是的，當然。

That could be a scenario.

這可能是一個場景。

However, if I look back, then it was exactly the same last year.

然而，如果我回頭看，去年的情況卻是一模一樣。

We were experiencing, if you plot, in your data points, if you plot July, August, September last year, we saw exactly the same erosion in rates.

如果你在數據點中繪製去年的七月、八月、九月，我們會發現，我們看到了完全相同的利率侵蝕。

So, yes, it could be that it’s not seasonality and it’s something more fundamental.

所以，是的，這可能不是季節性的，而是更根本的原因。

I don’t think that there’s something that really points to that at this stage but, clearly that would be a risk for our market.

我不認為現階段有什麼真正表明這一點，但顯然這對我們的市場來說是一個風險。

But, that’s not, that’s the risk that we are having all the time.

但是，事實並非如此，這正是我們一直以來面臨的風險。

When I look at it, sort of, if I take it a step a notch up, and I think that the oil consumption globally and, sort of, what we thought would be a potential risk, let’s say, a couple of years or three or four years ago, which would be a transformation of the underlying economies away aggressively away from fossil fuels.

當我審視它時，如果我將其提高一個檔次，我認為全球石油消費以及我們認為的潛在風險，比如說，幾年或三四年前，這將是基礎經濟體的轉型，積極擺脫化石燃料。

I think that has, that’s not what I’m looking at right now.

我認為確實如此，但這不是我現在所關注的。

So, there will be seasonality and there will be bumps, but sort of in the broad view, I don’t think this is a sign of this.

因此，會有季節性，也會有波動，但從廣泛的角度來看，我不認為這是一個跡象。

And then looking back, as I say to ‘23 numbers, it was exactly the same price mechanism in month.

然後回頭看，正如我對 23 個數字所說的那樣，這與當月的價格機製完全相同。

Okay.

好的。

And, if we tie that together, with now the fleet reaching 96 vessels, which is I think by anyone’s estimation, certainly critical mass gives you some optionality and flexibility with the fleet.

而且，如果我們將其結合起來，現在船隊數量已達到 96 艘（我認為這是任何人的估計），那麼臨界質量肯定會給您的船隊帶來一定的選擇性和靈活性。

If I go back and look at, 7% ton-mile benefit from Russia, 6% from Red Sea, certainly seems like these issues have probably more duration than anyone would have anticipated when they first began.

如果我回頭看看，7% 的噸英里收益來自俄羅斯，6% 來自紅海，這些問題的持續時間肯定比任何人剛開始時預期的要長。

But given, that great impact, given now 96 vessels, given maybe some of the macro concerns, is there a desire or maybe are you looking at a little bit more balance in the fleet?

但考慮到這種巨大的影響，考慮到現在有 96 艘船，考慮到一些宏觀問題，是否有願望，或者您是否希望船隊更加平衡？

Because it does feel like the contract market has been far more steady and substantially more elevated than the weakness in the spot market we’ve seen recently.

因為確實感覺合約市場比我們最近看到的現貨市場的疲軟要穩定得多，而且價格大幅上漲。

No.

不。

Clearly, the markets, I would say, not reflecting that there is this bump, speed bump, you could say currently.

顯然，我想說，市場並沒有反映出目前存在的這種顛簸、減速。

I think we are going to take it really opportunistically.

我認為我們會非常機會主義地對待它。

Currently, we are of the expectation that this is a seasonality and that they will come back.

目前，我們預計這是一個季節性因素，他們會回來。

I think that’s the time to actually make those calls rather than in the current environment.

我認為現在是真正做出這些決定的時候了，而不是在當前環境下。

Okay.

好的。

Makes sense.

有道理。

Thank you, Jacob.

謝謝你，雅各。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks for those questions, Jon.

謝謝你提出這些問題，喬恩。

Omar Nokta, Jefferies.

奧馬爾諾克塔，傑弗里斯。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hi, Jacob, and Kim.

嗨，雅各和金。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Obviously, nice earnings as usual and wanted to maybe piggyback a little bit on Jon’s first question.

顯然，像往常一樣，收入不錯，並且想或許對喬恩的第一個問題有所幫助。

Obviously, we’re in a very strong market.

顯然，我們正處於一個非常強勁的市場。

Things have clearly cooled off a bit.

事情顯然已經冷卻了一些。

They remain elevated definitely from a historical perspective.

從歷史的角度來看，它們無疑仍然處於高位。

And, I guess there’s been some talk of refinery run cuts in Asia, and just wanted to get a sense from you if do you feel like the spot market or the charter markets as they are today are reflecting that already?

而且，我想有人在談論亞洲煉油廠減產的問題，我只是想聽聽您的意見，您是否覺得現貨市場或租船市場現在已經反映了這一點？

And then do you see risk, are you seeing signs that refinery run cuts will be coming into the Western Hemisphere as well?

然後你看到風險了嗎？

So, when we look at it, then actually, I think we’re starting to see that activity with our clients in Asia is actually coming back from the lows that we saw maybe a couple of weeks ago.

因此，當我們審視它時，實際上，我認為我們開始看到亞洲客戶的活動實際上正在從幾週前的低點回升。

It is on the back of the China demand have been slow as you pointed to, slower VLCC movements and also that product, how do I say, flow internally in China has been relatively slow.

正如您所指出的，這是由於中國的需求緩慢，VLCC 的運輸速度較慢，而且該產品在中國的內部流動也相對緩慢。

Of course, leading to that you’re not calling on more crude into your facility.

當然，因此您不會在您的設施中使用更多原油。

But it may actually lead to being a beneficiary that the product tanker market will have is that China is still running at a rate that is higher than what their local consumption would be, and that you could see that there will be additional export quotas likely to be provided.

但實際上，成品油輪市場的受益者可能是中國的運行速度仍然高於當地的消費水平，而且你可以看到，可能會有額外的出口配額。

So, let’s see.

那麼，讓我們看看。

It’s a political decision, but I think it’s stacking up against that we will see more exports out of the region rather than less exports out of the region in the coming months.

這是一個政治決定，但我認為，未來幾個月我們將看到該地區的出口增加，而不是減少。

Okay.

好的。

So, it sounds like, effectively, then the markets has been reflecting this for some time.

因此，聽起來市場實際上已經反映這一點有一段時間了。

A couple questions just to follow-up a bit more on, TORM specifically.

有幾個問題只是為了進一步跟進，特別是 TORM。

This is perhaps an easy one to add.

這也許是一個很容易添加的內容。

I think you probably have answered in the past, but just wanted an update.

我想您過去可能已經回答過，但只是想更新。

You mentioned that the 68 scrubbers that are installed on your fleet of the 85 planned.

您提到您計劃安裝 85 台洗滌器，其中 68 台洗滌器已安裝在您的機隊中。

I guess, is the plan still to move forward with those remaining installations, and would you do those, I guess, as part of your ordinary dry dock of those ships?

我想，該計劃是否仍會繼續推進那些剩餘的設施，我想，您會做這些，作為這些船舶的普通乾船塢的一部分嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So, our plan is currently intact, and it will be, as you say also done in the ordinary course of the business.

因此，我們的計劃目前完好無損，正如您所說，它也會在正常業務過程中完成。

That’s a mix of some of the acquisitions we’ve done over the last couple of years where it makes still financial sense.

這是我們過去幾年進行的一些收購的組合，這些收購仍然具有財務意義。

Of course, we will do it case by case until we look at what we deem to be the net present value of making the investment.

當然，我們會根據具體情況進行分析，直到我們確定投資的淨現值為止。

The time is actually not so relevant because we’re doing it during the ordinary course.

時間其實並不那麼重要，因為我們是在正常課程中進行的。

But, of course, installation itself is costly, and we do take it case-by-case and look at whether the installation makes sense.

但是，當然，安裝本身是昂貴的，我們確實會根據具體情況來考慮安裝是否有意義。

For now, our plan is to go ahead.

目前，我們的計劃是繼續進行。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just a final one just regarding the dividend.

最後一個是關於股息的。

I think this one, it’s 87% of earnings this last $80.

我認為這一項佔最後 80 美元收入的 87%。

I guess just in terms of the policy, how should we think about it in terms of it being formulaic?

我想就政策而言，我們應該如何看待它的公式化？

And I know you get this question a lot, but is the dividend quarterly, is it so formulaic in regards to basically paying out excess cash that’s above a reserve, or has it become a bit more discretionary, by the board?

我知道您經常被問到這個問題，但股息是按季度發放的嗎？ 基本上支付超出準備金的多餘現金是否如此公式化，或者董事會變得更加自由裁量？

Yes.

是的。

It’s always been up to the board, for its discretion in at the end of the day.

這始終由董事會決定，最​​終由董事會決定。

But the way we sort of think about it is, as you’re saying and I think we should all think about like whatever we earn or we generate of liquidity from end of the quarter or start of the quarter to end of the quarter, that is basically what we sort of have the ability or anticipate to pay out those dividends or distribute out.

但我們思考這個問題的方式是，正如你所說，我認為我們都應該考慮從季度末或季度初到季度末我們賺取或產生的流動性，這基本上就是我們有能力或預期支付或分配這些股息的方式。

So, it’s the same thinking, but of course, if the board teams together management that we should have another calibration of the defined dividend we could do that.

所以，這是同樣的想法，但當然，如果董事會與管理層合作，我們應該對確定的股息進行另一次校準，我們就可以做到這一點。

But in the outset, it’s the same way we are thinking.

但一開始，我們的想法是一樣的。

We just take the net cash generation per quarter, then we that’s the offset for us that we will distribute that.

我們只計算每季的淨現金產生量，然後我們將分配該淨現金，這就是我們分配的抵銷額。

We have not changed it per se over the quarters the last many quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們本身並沒有改變它。

Okay.

好的。

Well, very good.

嗯，非常好。

Thank you for that, color.

謝謝你，顏色。

I’ll turn it over.

我會把它翻過來。

Clement Mullins, Value Investors Edge.

克萊門特·馬林斯，價值投資者邊緣。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to follow-up on Omar’s question on Chinese demand.

我想跟進奧馬爾關於中國需求的問題。

I mean, diesel demand has been fairly weak year-to-date as some tracks shift to LNG.

我的意思是，隨著一些軌道轉向液化天然氣，柴油需求今年迄今相當疲軟。

And on the other hand, as EV adoption in the region increases, that could also weigh on gasoline demand.

另一方面，隨著該地區電動車採用率的增加，這也可能影響汽油需求。

Could you provide some commentary on when do you expect gasoline and diesel demand in the region to plateau?

您能否就您預計該地區汽油和柴油需求何時趨於穩定提供一些評論？

And secondly, do you believe China’s infrastructure is able to support continued LNG and EV adoption?

其次，您認為中國的基礎設施能夠支持液化天然氣和電動車的持續採用嗎？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for those questions.

謝謝你提出這些問題。

I think I’ll start with Chinese demand for products.

我想我將從中國對產品的需求開始。

Well, of course, there is, as you point to a number of factors that is impacting how is the Chinese infrastructure sort of developing both on EVs adaption of that and also on consumption of diesel and gasoline on the other side of the equation.

嗯，當然，正如您所指出的，有許多因素影響著中國基礎設施的發展，包括電動車的適應以及柴油和汽油的消耗。

We see that Chinese demand is going down, but that is obviously not necessarily bad for product tanker flows.

我們看到中國的需求正在下降，但這顯然對成品油輪流量來說不一定是壞事。

So, we are more concerned not so much about the internal distribution of energy sources in the Chinese ecosystem, but rather what is the impact on trade flows in or out of the refineries.

因此，我們更關心的不是中國生態系中能源的內部分佈，而是對煉油廠進出貿易流量的影響。

And there, everything has been equal.

在那裡，一切都是平等的。

We don’t see that there is a threat from the EV adoption nor from how the sort of infrastructure issues that may or may not be there to build that further, that that is having a negative impact on the product tanker market as such.

我們沒有看到電動車的採用所帶來的威脅，也沒有看到可能會或可能不會進一步發展電動車的基礎設施問題如何對成品油輪市場產生負面影響。

That’s very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you for taking my questions and congratulations for the quarter.

感謝您回答我的問題並對本季表示祝賀。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thanks for dialing in and for the question.

感謝您撥打電話並提出問題。

Peter Hagen, ABG.

彼得·哈根，ABG。

Hello and good morning or good afternoon, I’m one should say.

你好，早上好或下午好，我應該說。

Two questions from my side.

我這邊有兩個問題。

In terms of the TCE market these days, would you consider doing something longer on current levels?

就目前的 TCE 市場而言，您是否會考慮在當前水準上做更長時間的事情？

On current levels, I’m reading is, well, just shy of 30,000 for MRs for three years or a little bit more than 40,000 per day for LR2s.

按照目前的水平，我的 MR 三年閱讀量略低於 30,000 份，LR2 每天閱讀量略高於 40,000 份。

Are those levels attractive, you think, for three year chartering activities now?

您認為這些等級對於現在的三年包機活動是否有吸引力？

Yes.

是的。

I think you are right on, we did do that, Peter, during the quarter restart.

我認為你是對的，彼得，我們在季度重啟期間確實做到了這一點。

And LR2 took three years with one of our clients in the low mid-40,000.

LR2 花了三年時間與我們的一位 40,000 名中低端客戶合作。

So, yes, we would look at that as they all depend on the trade and our clients.

所以，是的，我們會考慮這一點，因為它們都取決於貿易和我們的客戶。

That is a market that we are constantly evaluating and that we also did this call.

這是一個我們不斷評估的市場，我們也進行了這次電話會議。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Understood.

明白了。

And in terms of the volumes done, would you sort of consider doing a larger share of your fleet to lock in those rates?

就已完成的數量而言，您是否會考慮擴大機隊份額以鎖定這些費率？

Or are you happy to break spot still?

或者你還樂意打破現狀嗎？

We’re happy either way.

不管怎樣，我們都很高興。

So obviously, we are believers in that the market will offer good rewards, good risk return when you are stuck.

顯然，我們相信當你陷入困境時，市場會提供良好的回報和良好的風險回報。

And also from part of it, we will also happily engage with our clients.

此外，我們也將愉快地與客戶互動。

So, I don’t think it is an either or also given the number of assets that we’ve got that I think we can play, both sides, Peter, on that.

因此，我認為這不是一個非此即彼的問題，因為我們擁有的資產數量是雙方都可以發揮的，彼得。

But the current levels are, in our opinion attractive enough to also engage in.

但我們認為，目前的水平具有足夠的吸引力，值得參與。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And a second question for myself.

我還有第二個問題。

In terms of your presentation in Slide 8, you’re here showing, well approximately 8 million deadweight tonne, if I read it correctly, of crude tankers or LR2s and crude tankers moving into the product tanker fleet.

就幻燈片 8 中的演示而言，如果我沒看錯的話，您在這裡展示了大約 800 萬載重噸的原油油輪或 LR2 以及進入成品油輪船隊的原油油輪。

Is this to be understood as your expectation for the full year?

這是否可以理解為您對全年的預期？

Or does this imply that you have some sort of reduction from what we now hear or what given the LCCs are doing, clean trade – product tanker trade.

或者這是否意味著我們現在聽到的或考慮到低成本航企正在做的清潔貿易——成品油輪貿易有所減少。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

No.

不。

That’s a good observation.

這是一個很好的觀察。

Good question.

好問題。

So, this is the here now, this is what we see, the portion of crude tankers that have migrated and you can say, in force, cannibalized on the product tanker trade.

所以，這就是現在，這就是我們所看到的，部分原油油輪已經遷移，你可以說，它們在成品油輪貿易中被蠶食了。

So, this is not, our estimation of where we will end, the year.

所以，這不是我們對今年結束的估計。

We do expect that, a significant ratio of these vessels will go back into this trade once you see a seasonal pickup also in the VLCC and in the Suezmax trades.

我們確實預計，一旦 VLCC 和蘇伊士型油輪貿易出現季節性回升，這些船舶的很大一部分將重新進入這一行業。

So, this is here now what we can identify as vessels that are carrying key petroleum products as we speak.

因此，現在我們可以將其識別為運載關鍵石油產品的船隻。

And just as a quick follow-up on that, speaking for myself, I was pretty surprised when I heard about all those VLCCs in particular trading clean.

作為對此的快速跟進，就我自己而言，當我聽說所有這些 VLCC 尤其是乾淨交易時，我感到非常驚訝。

And to some extent, it makes me somewhat worry about the product trade, of course, because the crude tanker fleet is larger.

某種程度上，這讓我對產品貿易有些擔心，當然，因為原油油輪船隊規模更大。

And if all of them are capable of coming out and cannibalizing your market, I would think about that as a threat.

如果他們所有人都有能力出現並蠶食你的市場，我會認為這是一種威脅。

But to what extent, have you been surprised to see the migrations coming into your part of the market over the past couple of months?

但在過去的幾個月裡，您對遷移到您所在的市場部分感到驚訝到什麼程度？

Yes.

是的。

So for us, it is not surprising if the VE market is offering, let’s say, pick your number $25,000 today for a VE, and that you can, in a way, take LR2 are trading at 50 and that you can then, optimize your earning on the VE2 let’s say, 40.

因此，對於我們來說，如果 VE 市場提供的報價（比方說，今天選擇 25,000 美元的 VE 價格）並不奇怪，並且您可以在某種程度上以 50 的價格進行 LR2 的交易，然後您可以，優化您在VE2 的收入，比如說40。

That makes sense, it’s my view.

這是有道理的，這是我的觀點。

But if the market for LR2 is 30 and I’m getting 25 on VE, you’re not going to do LR2 cents because it’s simply not economically feasible.

但是，如果 LR2 的市場為 30，而我在 VE 上獲得 25，那麼您就不會花 LR2 美分，因為這在經濟上根本不可行。

So there was a window where the VEs were where you could say the gap between what we were making and what are the two going made that incentive.

因此，有一個窗口，在 VE 中，你可以說我們正在做的事情和兩者正在做的事情之間的差距產生了這種激勵。

I don’t think it is incentive even today to do it because you are alternative from going after the VE market is not attractive right now.

我認為即使在今天也沒有動力這樣做，因為目前 VE 市場並不有吸引力，所以你可以選擇放棄。

So, I think what it demonstrates is that crude and product is not two separate markets.

因此，我認為它表明原油和成品油不是兩個獨立的市場。

And obviously, if you have no VE market, VEs will try to cannibalize on CPPs if those rates are.

顯然，如果沒有 VE 市場，VE 會試圖蠶食 CPP（如果這些利率存在的話）。

So, I think that’s just a -- I think it’s more that there is a -- you cannot have a differential, let’s say of three times LR2 to a VE because then it will be attracted to do two LR2 cents on a VE and you get a higher TCE.

所以，我認為這只是一個——我認為更重要的是——你不能有一個微分，比如說 VE 的三倍 LR2，因為這樣它就會被吸引到在VE 上花費2 個LR2 美分，你將獲得更高的TCE。

Does that make sense?

這樣有道理嗎？

So, you can say that the limit to how high and LR2 rate can go on its own over time.

因此，您可以說隨著時間的推移，LR2 速率和高度的限制會自行變化。

That doesn’t make sense.

這沒有道理。

Because you’re saying that it was VE is trading at 50.

因為你說的是 VE 的交易價格為 50。

Well, then LR2 could I’m saying a little tongue and cheek, but then they could be dollar.

好吧，那麼 LR2 就可以了——我說的是一點舌頭和厚臉皮，但然後它們就可以是美元了。

Without making it improvise since so long.

這麼長時間以來都沒有即興創作。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Fully understood and agreed to.

充分理解並同意。

I was more speaking to the technical complications of actually cleaning up those, those tankers.

我更多地談論的是實際清理那些油輪的技術複雜性。

I thought it was close to impossible to see those ever trading, or be accepted by the cargo owners to actually trade the fleet.

我認為幾乎不可能看到那些曾經進行過交易，或者被貨主接受來實際交易船隊。

But fully agreed and understood, in terms of economic incentives.

但在經濟激勵方面完全同意和理解。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

That’s good question.

這是個好問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

We have no further questions at this time.

目前我們沒有進一步的問題。

I will now turn the call back to Jacob Meldgaard for closing remarks.

現在我將把電話轉回給雅各布·梅爾德加德（Jacob Meldgaard）做總結發言。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you very much for dialing into the second quarter 2024.

非常感謝您撥入 2024 年第二季。

Have a great day.

祝你有美好的一天。

This concludes today’s conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for your participation.

感謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。