Torm PLC (TRMD) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello and thank you for standing by. My name is Lacey and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the TORM 2nd quarter 2025 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press one again.

您好，感謝您的支持。我叫萊西 (Lacey)，今天我將擔任您的會議主持人。現在，我歡迎大家參加 TORM 2025 年第二季電話會議。所有線路均已靜音，以防止背景噪音。演講者發言後，將進行問答環節。如果您想在此期間提問，只需按下電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按下數字 1 即可。如果您想撤回您的問題，請再按 1。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jacob Melgar, CEO. You may begin.

謝謝。現在我想將會議交給執行長 Jacob Melgar。你可以開始了。

Yeah, thank you very much, and a warm welcome here to everyone joining us on Tom's Q2 2025 conference call. Earlier this morning we did release our interim results for the second quarter of 25. I'm pleased that again we can report market leading performance.

是的，非常感謝，熱烈歡迎大家參加湯姆 2025 年第二季電話會議。今天早上我們確實發布了 25 年第二季的中期業績。我很高興我們能夠再次報告市場領先的業績。

In the quarter, we witnessed a continuation of the most stable operating environment established in the 1st quarter, offering a clear contrast to the freight rate volatility scene in the latter part of last year.

本季度，我們見證了第一季最穩定的營運環境的延續，與去年下半年的運費波動形成了鮮明對比。

Our TCE came in at USD208 million, broadly consistent with both the last quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

我們的 TCE 達到 2.08 億美元，與 2024 年最後一季和 2025 年第一季基本一致。

This translated into a net profit of USD59 million leading to another quarter with attractive dividend distribution of USD0.40 per share.

這意味著淨利潤達到 5,900 萬美元，並帶來另一個季度每股 0.40 美元的誘人股息分配。

We also advanced our fleet optimization strategy by divesting 1 L2 vessel and two MR vessels all built in 2008. This alliance with our ongoing approach of phasing out older tarnish to maintain a modern, high quality, and commercially attractive fleet.

我們也透過剝離 2008 年建造的 1 艘 L2 船和 2 艘 MR 船來推進船隊優化策略。這項聯盟與我們持續淘汰舊鏽跡的方法相結合，以保持現代化、高品質和具有商業吸引力的車隊。

These will replace transactions underscore the strong condition and upkeep of our vessels, and to reinforce our commitment to operating an efficient and competitive platform.

這些替代交易將凸顯我們船舶的良好狀況和維護，並加強我們對營運高效、有競爭力的平台的承諾。

Looking ahead, the macro environment continues to be fast moving and marked by geopolitical uncertainty, but market sentiment remains broadly positive.

展望未來，宏觀環境繼續快速變化，並受到地緣政治不確定性的影響，但市場情緒總體上仍然積極。

We have entered the 3rd quarter with strong momentum, supported by firming rates across our vessel segments and an encouraging degree of visibility into our upcoming fixes.

我們以強勁的勢頭進入了第三季度，這得益於我們船舶部門的運價不斷走強以及即將推出的修復措施的令人鼓舞的可見性。

Despite the external challenges, both the underlying for the mentors and the forward curve for freight rates, they remain positive.

儘管面臨外部挑戰，無論是導師的潛在挑戰還是運費的遠期曲線，它們仍然是積極的。

Based on this and the rates we have already secured, we have raised our full year guidance to reflect a stronger earnings outlook for the remainder of this year.

基於此以及我們已經獲得的利率，我們提高了全年預期，以反映今年剩餘時間更強勁的獲利前景。

As always, we remain vigilant and agile, and with that, let us turn to the key drivers shaping the market and our positioning going forward.

像往常一樣，我們保持警惕和敏捷，並以此為基礎，讓我們轉向塑造市場和未來定位的關鍵驅動因素。

Yeah, please turn to slide number 5.

是的，請翻到第 5 張投影片。

Yeah, let me just go into first it's a snapshot of the market landscape, and tanker rates have remained both stable and attractive across the board. And here, as illustrated in this graph, benchmark earnings for AR and the vessels, they show resilience and with recent figures reflecting a healthy uptake. This stability is underpinned by increased trade flows and the limited net growth in CPP trading fleet.

是的，首先讓我介紹一下市場概況，油輪運價一直保持穩定且具吸引力。如該圖所示，AR 和船舶的基準收益表現出韌性，最近的數據也反映出健康的成長動能。這種穩定性是由貿易流量的增加和 CPP 貿易船隊的淨成長有限所支撐的。

And here, please turn to slide 6. I'll elaborate on that.

請翻到幻燈片 6。我將對此進行詳細說明。

And trade volumes have surged recently. They reached a 16 month high at the start of Q3.

近期貿易量大幅增加。在第三季初，它們達到了 16 個月以來的最高點。

This growth has been driven by increased east to west, Middle East flows, and for the past two quarters, we've been pointing out that low trade volumes on this route have not been sustainable.

這種成長是由東向西、中東流量的增加所推動的，在過去兩個季度中，我們一直在指出，這條航線的低貿易量是不可持續的。

With inventories in Northwest Europe falling into the lower end of the 5 year range, we have recently seen a surge in the east to westid distras further supported by strong exports from the United States.

隨著西北歐的庫存降至 5 年期區間的低端，我們最近看到東到西的分佈激增，這進一步受到美國強勁出口的支撐。

This has lifted on Mars again to levels well above what we saw before the Red Sea disruption.

火星上的這種現象再次上升到遠高於紅海破壞之前我們所見的水平。

At the same time, crude cannibalization has normalized at more at the historical levels.

同時，原油蠶食現像已趨於正常，接近歷史水準。

Looking further ahead, the product tanker market is expected to continue to be driven by geopolitical factors, high uncertainty, but we expect market fundamentals to continue to support trade flows and vessel utilization.

展望未來，成品油油輪市場預計將繼續受到地緣政治因素和高度不確定性的驅動，但我們預計市場基本面將繼續支持貿易流量和船舶利用率。

And please turn to slide 7.

請翻到幻燈片 7。

Since the start of this year, 2 refineries in northeast Europe have closed, with 2 more expected to close by the end of the year.

今年以來，東北歐已有2家煉油廠關閉，預計年底還將有2家煉油廠關閉。

The closures combined correspond to 6% of the region's refining capacity, leading to a lower local product supply and increased need for imported me business in an environment where product supply is already tight.

關閉的煉油廠合計佔該地區煉油產能的 6%，導致本地產品供應減少，而在產品供應已經緊張的環境下，進口石油業務的需求增加。

According to our calculations, if all this supply were replaced by imported diesel and jet from the Middle East Gulf.

根據我們的計算，如果所有這些供應都被從中東海灣進口的柴油和噴射燃料所取代。

This would translate into an additional demand of 15 to 242 equivalents per year, depending on whether the vessels transit the Red Sea or sail around the Cape of Good Hope. To put it into perspective, this corresponds to 6% to 10% of the current TPP trading E2 fleet.

這意味著每年將額外增加 15 至 242 個當量的需求，具體取決於船隻是經過紅海還是繞過好望角。具體來說，這相當於目前 TPP 貿易 E2 船隊的 6% 至 10%。

Refinery closes are not limited to Europe. In less than 1 year from now, 2 refineries with a combined 11% of the region's capacity will close on the US West coast.

煉油廠關閉並不僅限於歐洲。今後不到一年的時間裡，美國西海岸將關閉兩家煉油廠，合計佔該地區產能的 11%。

This we expect to lead to increased need for gasoline and jet imports which according to our calculations will translate into an add additional demand of more than 25 MR equivalents on a round trip basis if they all come from Asia.

我們預計這將導致汽油和噴射機進口的需求增加，根據我們的計算，如果這些進口貨物全部來自亞洲，則往返將增加超過 25 MR 當量的額外需求。

Please turn to slide 8.

請翻到第 8 張投影片。

Geopolitical developments remain a key driver in the market.

地緣政治發展仍是市場的主要驅動力。

In its latest sanctions package against Russia, the EU introduced a ban on third country petroleum products obtained from Russian crude oil from January next year.

歐盟在最新一輪針對俄羅斯的製裁方案中，規定自明年1月起禁止向第三國出口從俄羅斯原油提取的石油產品。

Which mainly affects diesel imports from India and Turkey.

這主要影響來自印度和土耳其的柴油進口。

We do not expect any significant effect on to Mars from this with alternative sources available from the same distance, but there will be a slight positive impact if imports are replaced by supplies from further away.

我們預計，如果在相同距離處有替代來源，這不會對火星產生任何重大影響，但如果用來自更遠地方的供應取代進口，將會產生輕微的正面影響。

While it's still unclear.

雖然目前還不清楚。

Whether President Trump's threat of additional tariffs on India will force Indian refineries to shift away from Russian crude.

川普總統威脅對印度徵收額外關稅是否會迫使印度煉油廠放棄俄羅斯原油。

Potential reshuffling of crude flows with China taking more Russian oil and India, more Middle East or Western oil is likely to be positive for larger crude tankers while negative for the EOMA segment.

隨著中國吸收更多俄羅斯石油、印度、中東或西方石油，原油運輸流向可能會重新調整，這對大型原油油輪來說可能是好消息，但對 EOMA 油輪來說可能是利空消息。

Nevertheless, we expect the demand laws for ARMaxis to be offset by a substantial share of sanctioned Aroaxis, not returning to the main mainstream trades.

儘管如此，我們預計 ARMaxis 的需求規律將被大量核准的 Aroaxis 所抵消，而不會回到主流交易中。

Clearly, it is highly uncertain what the US administration next move whether this Russia is, but we do not foresee any reversal of EU sanctions anytime soon.

顯然，美國政府下一步對俄羅斯採取什麼行動仍存在很大不確定性，但我們預計歐盟不會很快撤銷制裁。

Please turn to slide 9.

請翻到第 9 張投影片。

And let's take a look at the tonic supply side, and as we pointed out earlier, the relatively high product order book should be seen in combination with the fact that the average age of the fleet is the highest in two decades. In addition, a large share of especially older feet, is sanctioned, which is expected to support exits from the market.

讓我們來看看補品供應方面，正如我們之前指出的那樣，產品訂單量相對較高應該與船隊平均年齡達到二十年來最高水平這一事實結合起來看。此外，很大一部分特別是老齡企業受到了製裁，預計這將支持其退出市場。

This is especially the case for the combined 2 FRAX fleet where every 4th vessel in the global fleet is on either OFAC, EU or UK sanctions.

對於 2 個 FRAX 合併船隊來說尤其如此，全球船隊中每 4 艘船中就有 1 艘受到 OFAC、歐盟或英國的製裁。

It is especially the OFAC sanctions that had a strong impact on future utilization with our data showing that Tom on vessels sanctions since January has declined by 75%.

尤其是 OFAC 制裁對未來的利用率產生了重大影響，我們的數據顯示，自 1 月以來，船上湯姆制裁已下降了 75%。

Lower utilization of sanctioned Axis has incentivized to to move to dirty rates as a result of which we've seen a 2% decline in the CPP trading feet over the past 12 months.

受批准的 Axis 的利用率較低，促使人們轉向骯髒費率，結果我們看到過去 12 個月 CPP 交易量下降了 2%。

This is why the nominal product faculty has grown by 4% driven by new building deliveries.

這就是為什麼名義產品能力在新建築交付的推動下增加了 4%。

Please turn to slide 10.

請翻到第 10 張投影片。

Looking ahead, several factors will continue to shape the product and market, including ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, additional EU sanctions against Russia, evolving US trade policy, and continuing Red Sea disruption. In addition, returning crude output from OPEC is indirectly supporting our market.

展望未來，多種因素將繼續影響產品和市場，包括持續的地緣政治不確定性、歐盟對俄羅斯的額外制裁、不斷變化的美國貿易政策以及持續的紅海混亂。此外，石油輸出國組織（OPEC）原油產量的恢復也間接支撐了我們的市場。

On the demand side, oil consumption remains robust, and changes in the refined landscape are increasing to miles.

需求方面，石油消費依然強勁，煉油格局變化正不斷增加。

On the supply side, increased new build deliveries need to be seen in combination with the increasing number of scrabbing candidates, alongside reduced trading on the sanction fleet.

在供應方面，新建船舶交付量的增加需要與報廢船舶數量的增加以及製裁船隊交易量的減少相結合。

This will influence China's availability and market balance.

這將影響中國的供應和市場平衡。

I'm certain that Tom is well positioned to maneuver in this environment through our conservative cap structure, the operational leverage, and the integrated platform. So with that, I'll hand it over to you will walk us through the financials.

我確信，透過我們保守的上限結構、營運槓桿和整合平台，湯姆能夠很好地適應這種環境。因此，我將把它交給您，帶我們了解財務狀況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jacob. Now please turn to slide 12, an overview of the financials. In the second quarter, RTC amounted to USD208 million. And based on this, we achieved USD127 million in EBITDA and USD59 million in net profit.

雅各。現在請翻到第 12 張投影片，這是財務概覽。第二季度，RTC達2.08億美元。在此基礎上，我們實現了1.27億美元的EBITDA和5,900萬美元的淨利。

Meanwhile we averaged CD rates of USD26,772 per day, with E2s above USD35,000, E1 slightly above USD27,000, Neymar is around USD23,000.

同時，我們的平均 CD 匯率為每天 26,772 美元，其中 E2 超過 35,000 美元，E1 略高於 27,000 美元，內馬爾約為 23,000 美元。

Thus, freight rates during the quarter remained broadly in line with the previous two quarters underpinned by solid market fundamentals. This stability provides a strong base as we progress through the year, with our earnings continuing to reflect performance well above market rates.

因此，在穩健的市場基本面支撐下，本季的運費與前兩季基本持平。這種穩定性為我們全年的發展提供了堅實的基礎，我們的收益將繼續反映出遠高於市場水平的表現。

And now please move to slide 13, please.

現在請移至第 13 張投影片。

This slide illustrates our revenue progressing quarter by quarter since Q2 2024. With this quarter's results, we now mark three consecutive quarters with stable freight rates and earnings, highlighting a period of sustained performance and consistent market conditions.

這張投影片展示了自 2024 年第二季以來我們的收入逐季度變化。憑藉本季的業績，我們已經連續三個季度保持穩定的運費和收益，突顯了持續的業績和穩定的市場狀況。

Despite continued geopolitical uncertainty, underlying 1 mile demand remains solid, though we stay alert to how quickly market dynamics can evolve.

儘管地緣政治不確定性持續存在，但 1 英里的潛在需求仍然穩固，儘管我們對市場動態的變化速度保持警惕。

Against this backdrop, we delivered a satisfying result generating CCE of USD208 million.

在此背景下，我們取得了令人滿意的業績，產生了2.08億美元的CCE。

And EBITDA of USD127 million based on a fleetwide range rate of USD26,672 per day.

根據全機隊航程費率為每天 26,672 美元計算，EBITDA 為 1.27 億美元。

Adjusting for gain on so versus EBITDA amounted to USD122 million thus at par with the USD126 million realized in the previous quarter.

調整後的息稅折舊攤提前利潤為 1.22 億美元，與上一季的 1.26 億美元持平。

With our current operational leverage, we are well positioned to benefit from any future improvement in freight rates. So for every $1000 increase in daily rates, our quarterly EBDA could rise by approximately $8 million based on around 8,000 earning days, highlighting the meaningful earning upside should the market strengthen further.

憑藉我們目前的營運槓桿，我們完全有能力從未來運費的提高中獲益。因此，每日費率每增加 1,000 美元，基於約 8,000 個盈利日，我們的季度 EBDA 就會增加約 800 萬美元，這凸顯瞭如果市場進一步走強，盈利將大幅上漲。

Slide 14 please.

請看投影片 14。

Here we show the quality development in net profit and key share related ratios.

這裡我們展示了淨利潤和關鍵股票相關比率的品質發展。

Which closely followed the trend in EBDA. As a result, earnings per share for the 2nd quarter amounted to USD0.60.

這與 EBDA 的趨勢緊密相關。因此，第二季每股收益達到0.60美元。

Our approach to shareholder return remains clear and consistent. We continue to distribute excess liquidity on a quarterly basis while maintaining a disciplined financial buffer to safeguard our balance sheet. So for the second quarter, this approach has led to a declared dividend of 40 US cents per share, representing a payout ratio of 6% to 7%.

我們對股東回報的態度依然清晰且一致。我們繼續按季度分配過剩流動性，同時保持嚴格的財務緩衝以保護我們的資產負債表。因此，對於第二季度，這種方法導致宣布每股派息 40 美分，股息率為 6% 至 7%。

This aligns with our free cash flow after debt repayments and reflects both our solid earnings performance and our ongoing commitment to responsible capital allocation.

這與我們償還債務後的自由現金流一致，反映了我們穩健的獲利表現和對負責任的資本配置的持續承諾。

And now please turn to a slide 15.

現在請翻到第 15 張投影片。

As illustrated on this slide following several quarters of steadily rising values.

正如這張幻燈片所示，經過幾個季度的穩定上升。

Broker valuations for our fleet were at USD2.9 billion at the end of the quarter, reflecting both lower vessel valuation as well as our described divestment of vessels. Although vessel values were down around 7% across the fleet, then it is worth noticing that this number is heavily influenced by older tonnage from 2010 to 2012, but newer tonnage has set up relatively well.

截至本季末，我們船隊的經紀人估值為 29 億美元，這不僅反映了船舶估值較低，也反映了我們所描述的船舶剝離。儘管整個船隊的船舶價值下降了約 7%，但值得注意的是，這一數字在很大程度上受到 2010 年至 2012 年舊噸位船舶的影響，而新噸位船舶的表現相對較好。

Showing only those in digit declines.

僅顯示數字下降的數值。

Turning to the center chart, our net interest bearing debt now stands at USD767 million with a stable net loan to value of 27%, consistent with the levels be waiting for the last couple of quarters and underscoring the strength of our conservative capital structure. So on the right side of the slide, you can see our debt maturity profile, and over the next 12 months, we only have USD157 billion in borrowing maturing, just around 14% of our total debt. And we face no significant maturities until 2029, giving us ample runaway and financial stability.

轉到中心圖表，我們的淨計息債務目前為 7.67 億美元，淨貸款價值穩定為 27%，與過去幾季的水平一致，並突顯了我們保守的資本結構的實力。因此，在幻燈片的右側，您可以看到我們的債務到期情況，在接下來的 12 個月內，我們只有 1570 億美元的借款到期，僅占我們總債務的 14% 左右。而且直到 2029 年我們都不會面臨重大到期債務，這將為我們帶來充足的資金和財務穩定性。

But to further strengthen our capital structure, Tom has secured commitments for up to $857 million US dollars on the most attractive refinancing terms in our history.

但為了進一步加強我們的資本結構，湯姆已以我們歷史上最具吸引力的再融資條款獲得了高達 8.57 億美元的承諾。

This refinancing package covers two existing syndicated loan facilities and our lease agreements.

此再融資方案涵蓋兩項現有的銀團貸款和我們的租賃協議。

The new structure will be divided between term loans and revolving credit facilities, enhancing our liquidity and giving us greater financial flexibility. Thus, the package also extends the maturity profile with the new financing running into 2030.

新的結構將分為定期貸款和循環信貸額度，增強我們的流動性，並賦予我們更大的財務靈活性。因此，該計劃也延長了期限，新融資將持續到 2030 年。

Our loan facilities are expected to be refinanced in Q3 2025, while the lease agreements will be refinanced on a rolling basis as buyback options are exercised with final completion expected before Q2 2026.

我們的貸款預計將於 2025 年第三季進行再融資，而租賃協議將隨著回購選擇權的行使以滾動方式進行再融資，預計最終完成時間為 2026 年第二季之前。

Altogether, our solid financial foundation gives us flexibility to navigate current market conditions and to pursue value creating opportunities as they arise.

總而言之，我們堅實的財務基礎使我們能夠靈活地應對當前的市場狀況並抓住出現的創造價值的機會。

And our piece turned to slide 16 for the outlook.

我們的文章翻到第 16 張投影片來討論展望。

Our strong performance in the first half of the year sets a solid foundation for the remainder of the year. As of August 4th, we have secured 56% of our earnings days in the third quarter at an average of TCE of $306,170 per day across the field. For the full year 2025, we have fixed 66 of our winning days at an average TCE of USD27,833 per day.

我們上半年的強勁表現為今年下半年奠定了堅實的基礎。截至 8 月 4 日，我們已確保第三季 56% 的獲利天數，整個油田的平均 TCE 為每天 306,170 美元。就 2025 年全年而言，我們已確定 66 個得標日，平均 TCE 為每天 27,833 美元。

These levels provide us with solid earnings, visibility, and reflect continued market strength across our vessel segments.

這些水準為我們提供了穩健的收益和知名度，並反映了我們船舶部門持續的市場實力。

While geopolitical volatility remains a factor, we are seeing improved sentiment in the market environment. And on that basis, we are con confident in both increasing our and narrowing our full year guidance range.

儘管地緣政治波動仍然是一個因素，但我們看到市場環境情緒正在改善。在此基礎上，我們有信心提高或縮小全年指導範圍。

We now forecast this year earnings of $800 million to $950 million compared to our previous guidance of US dollars $700 million to $900 million. Similarly, we raised our expectations for EBITDA for the year to $475 million to $625 million up from $400 to $600 million US dollars previously.

我們現在預測今年的收益為 8 億至 9.5 億美元，而先前的預測是 7 億至 9 億美元。同樣，我們將今年的 EBITDA 預期從先前的 4 億至 6 億美元上調至 4.75 億至 6.25 億美元。

This revision reflects our secure coverage and the future market expectations while acknowledging the potential for continued fluctuations. Overall, we remain well positioned to deliver strong results in 2025.

此次調整反映了我們穩健的覆蓋範圍和對未來市場的預期，同時也考慮到市場可能持續波動。整體而言，我們仍處於有利地位，預計在2025年取得強勁業績。

So with this, I will conclude my remarks and hand over the mic to the operator.

好了，我的發言到此結束，我將把麥克風交給接線員。

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster.

此時，我想提醒大家，要想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的星號，然後按數字 1。我們將暫停片刻，以編制問答名單。

Your first question comes from the line of John Chappelle with Evercore ISI. You may go ahead.

您的第一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 John Chappelle。你可以繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon.

謝謝。午安.

Jacob, on page 13, the TCE fleetwide TCE beta chart, the consistency over the last three quarters is really noticeable, especially for an industry that's notoriously volatile and especially given all the geopolitics and macro uncertainty that you mentioned in your prepared remarks. What do you think has caused this consistency over the last 9 months or so, and does that Restrict you at all with the things that you could do with TOM whether it's positioning vessels or S&P activity or charter in charter out, does it kind of restrict some of your flexibility.

Jacob，在第 13 頁的 TCE 全船 TCE 貝塔圖表中，過去三個季度的一致性確實引人注目，特別是對於一個出了名的不穩定的行業，尤其考慮到您在準備好的發言中提到的所有地緣政治和宏觀不確定性。您認為是什麼導致了過去 9 個月左右的這種一致性，這是否會限制您使用 TOM 所做的事情，無論是定位船舶還是 S&P 活動或租入租出，這是否會限制您的一些靈活性。

Well, that's a good question. I think I agree with the fact that it is really a remarkable stability that we've seen.

嗯，這是個好問題。我認為我同意這一事實，我們所看到的確實是一種非凡的穩定性。

I would say let's say the last three quarters predominantly, but it really doesn't restrict us of any. I always see these markets as that we need to establish, I want to say. A clear view on where the market kind of headed and what range we're in. And I think we've been range bound for some time here. And I think that as also in my prepared remarks that I think that really is that I think there is some option of that things could change the dynamic could change to the upside of course, if we look at, for instance, the additional oil coming to market. The fact that trade routes will, everything has been equal, still remains stretched, and there's further closure of refineries in the parts of the world where we already have, a need for import. I think that sort of the The headwinds that we've seen which have sort of put a cap on the market, could In the coming quarterschacha the dynamics so that we have more tailwind.

我想說主要是最後三個季度，但這實際上並沒有限制我們。我想說，我一直認為這些市場是我們需要建立的。清楚了解市場走向和我們所處的範圍。我認為我們已經在這裡徘徊了一段時間了。我認為，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我認為確實存在一些情況可能會發生變化的可能，當然，如果我們看一下，例如，進入市場的額外石油，情況可能會發生變化。事實上，在所有條件相同的情況下，貿易路線仍然緊張，而且世界上已有進口需求的地區煉油廠進一步關閉。我認為，我們所看到的這種逆風在某種程度上限制了市場，但在未來幾個季度，這種逆風可能會改變市場動態，讓我們擁有更多的順風。

So I see it more from that perspective that this is really a solid.

因此，我從這個角度來看，這確實是一個堅實的。

Solid, I would say foundation for creating more upside potential as the oil markets also will change the dynamic, I think, especially with the OPEC, OEC change in sort of turning on the taps.

我認為，隨著石油市場動態的改變，特別是隨著石油輸出國組織 (OPEC) 和石油輸出國組織 (OEC) 的開放，基礎將更加堅實，將創造更多的上行潛力。

Mm, okay, thank you, and then just to follow up, Kim. I think it needs to be asked like I understand you have a calculation for your dividend policy. The payout ratio thus far this year has been lower than it was last year. Now that you've completed this tremendous financing, do you think that the calculation, if we kind of look beyond the leases, maybe 4th quarter or 1st quarter next year, becomes a bit more favorable in the magnitude of payout ratio?

嗯，好的，謝謝你，然後繼續跟進，金。我認為需要問這個問題，就像我理解您對股息政策有一個計算一樣。今年迄今的派息率低於去年。現在您已經完成了這筆巨額融資，如果我們看一下租賃以外的情況，例如明年第四季度或第一季度，您是否認為支付率的幅度會變得更有利一些？

Yes.

是的。

I do. That is our expectation. So our expectation is that when we look into, 2026, for several reasons, our cash flow per even will, decrease.

我願意。這是我們的期望。因此，我們的預期是，當我們展望 2026 年時，由於多種原因，我們的每股現金流將會減少。

Notable.

值得注意。

And with that, you will also, you should expect, of course, it depends on where we are in the markets, but you should expect the payout ratio to, or the dividends to be higher, but the payout ratio also to in itself, be higher. Yeah, I would expect that we would expect that.

當然，你也應該預期這取決於我們在市場中的位置，但你應該預期派息率或股息會更高，而且派息率本身也會更高。是的，我希望我們能期待這一點。

Do you have any sense on what the main is it kind of 75 to 80 again similar to what it was in 24?

您是否知道主要內容是 75 到 80 之間，與 24 時的情況類似？

.

。

Good question, but probably yes. I would imagine that, now I'm going out on a little limb here because I don't have a calculator for this meeting, John, but, I would expect that 80 would be 7,580 would be a fine place to be.

好問題，但可能是的。我可以想像，現在我要冒一點險，因為我沒有計算器來計算這次會議，約翰，但是，我預計 80 等於 7,580 是一個不錯的數字。

Okay, great. Thanks, Kim. Thanks, Jacob.

好的，太好了。謝謝，金。謝謝，雅各。

Yeah, thanks. Thanks, John.

是的，謝謝。謝謝，約翰。

Your next question comes from the line of Oornota with Jeffrey. You may go ahead.

您的下一個問題來自 Jeffrey 的 Oornota。你可以繼續。

Thank you. Hi, Jacob and Kim, thanks for the update.

謝謝。嗨，Jacob 和 Kim，感謝你們的更新。

Yeah, well, nice to hear kind of the thoughts of, lower break even and a potential higher payout ratio as we look for next year. I wanted to maybe just ask about kind of what we're seeing here, in the third quarter. Obviously some pretty good guidance in terms of your bookings, but, especially on the MRs where you're showing 28,000, which is quite a bit above kind of peers, but also what you have been capturing the prior few quarters. And, which is interesting because the LR2s and LR1s are kind of flattish to slightly higher, but it's really the MRs that have gone up. Can you maybe just talk about what's driving that upside, and, what can we expect from here for the rest of the year, to the extent you can say.

是的，很高興聽到大家對明年降低損益平衡點和提高潛在股利利率的想法。我可能只是想問一下我們在第三季看到的情況。顯然，就您的預訂量而言，這是一些相當不錯的指導，但特別是在 MR 方面，您顯示的預訂量為 28,000，這比同行高出不少，而且也是您在前幾個季度所取得的成績。有趣的是，LR2 和 LR1 的價格有點持平或略高，但實際上是 MR 的價格上漲了。您能否談談推動這項上漲的因素，以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期是什麼？

Yeah, so I think at a granular basis, what I, what I've been thinking about, and I think it's the right question is, okay, what is, what has been driving this and really, as we look at the data points, the fact that CPP on the water now.

是的，所以我認為從細節上講，我一直在思考的問題，我認為正確的問題是，好吧，是什麼推動了這一進程，實際上，當我們查看數據點時，事實是 CPP 現在在水上。

Has going into the 3rd quarter gone up to, the highest that we've seen for more than a year, is significant in combination with that if we go back exactly 12 months, I think we were all sort of a bit puzzled by the fact that crude tankers, predominantly Suez, but also some the sea, were really turning. Their attention to the CPP market, taking away, demand for about 8% or so.

進入第三季度，油價已上漲至一年多以來的最高水平，這一漲幅意義重大，如果我們回顧 12 個月前的情況，我想我們都對原油油輪（主要是蘇伊士運河油輪，但也包括一些海上油輪）真的在轉向這一事實感到有些困惑。他們對CPP市場的關注度，佔比大概在8%左右。

And now we are back to 1% of the tradingsz and VLC being in our minds. So I think the combination of that really you've seen a trading optic, sort of in general, you've seen this the cannibalization.

現在我們又回到了 1% 的交易和 VLC 在我們心中的位置。所以我認為，從這些組合來看，你確實看到了一種交易視角，總的來說，你已經看到了這種蠶食現象。

At least for now, having more or less evaporated from a very high historically unusual high level.

至少就目前而言，已經或多或少地從歷史上非常高的水平蒸發了。

And that really just trickles down more into the MRs because you only have that many twos trading, as I alluded to. It is a little fascinating that I think we have all been following the order book of Elauss, watching it and thinking, okay, that seems to be quite a hefty order book.

正如我所提到的，這實際上只是更多地滲透到 MR 中，因為您只有那麼多的二元交易。我覺得有點令人著迷的是，我們都在關注 Elauss 的訂單簿，看著它並思考，好吧，這似乎是一本相當龐大的訂單簿。

But the fact is actually that even I think the numbers say that that there's 50 vessels that have been delivered over the last three quarters or so. The trading feet of Elas is the same. It's sort of in broad strokes. So I think it's just this filtering down into that there's just more, there's been more trade, at a granular basis in the and that we've also then been assisted by the fact that in the largest segments that TPP has simply not been moving.

但事實上，我認為數字表明過去三個季度左右已經交付了 50 艘船。Elas 的交易腳步也是一樣的。這有點像是粗略的描述。所以我認為這只是逐漸形成的，在細節上，貿易有所增加，而且我們也得到了幫助，因為在最大的領域，TPP 根本沒有進展。

On our sister vessels or the segment to the extent that it was. So it's been very, I think the fact that it is so widespread demand is extremely positive because I think it demonstrates a very solid market when you when you see that it's not like.

在我們的姊妹船或該段上也是如此。所以，我認為，它有如此廣泛的需求這一事實是非常積極的，因為我認為，當你看到它不一樣的時候，它表明了一個非常穩固的市場。

Don't misundersta where it's like that we should count just, okay, how many cargos are there of NASA out of the AG to to Asia. I mean, that will not tell you the dynamic and the strength of the market. It is actually a lot of progress of strength, and that's what in aggregate leads us to that we've got more CPP on the water now than at any point in time over the last 16 months.

別誤會，我們應該計算一下，有多少 NASA 貨物從 AG 運往亞洲。我的意思是，這不會告訴你市場的動態和實力。這實際上是實力上的一大進步，總的來說，這使得我們現在在水上擁有的 CPP 比過去 16 個月中的任何時候都多。

And it's really that underlying strength that translates into the MRA that.

正是這種潛在的力量轉化為了 MRA。

You've seen.

你已經看到了。

Thanks, Jacob. That.

謝謝，雅各。那。

That's very helpful, to get a good lay of the land there. And so I guess maybe just with that backdrop, a lot more cargo in the water, less cannibalization, so the fleet in general is seemingly tighter. You talked in the presentation just about values having been softer, you're obviously very, transaction oriented with the acquisitions and the sales. What are you seeing right now, in terms of the S&P market? Are values finding a floor? Is there any potential for them to rise just given this improvement in rates, any color you're able to share on that front.

這對於了解那裡的地形非常有幫助。所以我想也許正是在這樣的背景下，水中的貨物增多，拆解減少，所以總體而言船隊似乎更加緊湊。您在演講中談到了價值觀已經變得更加軟化，顯然您非常注重收購和銷售的交易。就標準普爾市場而言，您現在看到了什麼？價值是否找到了底線？鑑於利率的提高，它們是否還有上漲的潛力，您能否就此分享一些細節？

Yeah, I think it's a very good question. I was thinking is that in these markets, the first thing that to observe is obviously it's spot rates drop.

是的，我認為這是一個非常好的問題。我認為在這些市場中，首先要觀察到的顯然是現貨價格下降。

They can, as we all understand, following the volatility and trend over the last 3 years, flood rates are very volatile, and they can change, really fast. And that's what they actually did over the last year that they kind of Also from the slide that that was referenced before on the ABI, it seems as if actually rates have been stable over at least 3 quarters, whereas asset prices have been like slowly coming down. And I think this is a little like you would expect also in let's say a real estate market or it's rare. That you like certainly get that all everybody puts the price down of their asset at the same time. It takes a little time to sort of get the clearance prices, and I think we we've reached in our opinion, we're sort of at that flexing point where rates have stabilized for a longer period.

眾所周知，根據過去 3 年的波動和趨勢，洪水率非常不穩定，而且變化非常快。這就是他們去年實際所做的，而且從之前提到的 ABI 幻燈片來看，似乎利率至少在 3 個季度內一直保持穩定，而資產價格卻在緩慢下降。我認為這有點像你在房地產市場中所期望的那樣，或者說這種情況很少見。您肯定會發現所有人同時降低其資產的價格。獲得清倉價格需要一點時間，我認為我們已經達到了我們認為的那個拐點，即價格在較長時間內保持穩定。

It has meant that asset prices have also been creeping down, but that right now, if we sort of take a snapshot, I would argue that they're probably stabilizing around the prices that we've seen also reflected in our Q2 in the Q2 numbers, and that now it remains to be seen what happens over the course of this quarter and the next quarter, and I think that There is potential if freight rates, they start to climb up in a general sense that asset prices could either stay or go up from where they are now. That would be the logic.

這意味著資產價格也在緩慢下降，但是現在，如果我們看一下快照，我認為它們可能正在穩定在我們在第二季度數據中也反映出的價格附近，現在還有待觀察本季度和下一季度會發生什麼，我認為如果運費開始普遍上漲，資產價格就有可能保持當前水平或從現在水平上漲。這就是邏輯。

Okay, very interesting.

好的，非常有趣。

Thank you, Jacob again for that. I'll turn it back.

再次感謝 Jacob。我會把它轉回去。

Yeah, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

Again, if you would like to ask a question, press one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Srode Moreto with Clarkson Securities. You may go ahead.

再次強調，如果您想提問，請按電話鍵盤上的 1。您的下一個問題來自克拉克森證券公司的 Srode Moreto。你可以繼續。

Thank you. Hi guys, this is Soda Mal Jacksons.

謝謝。大家好，我是 Soda Mal Jacksons。

Just looking at this slide you provided on page 5 or 6 I think on the CPP somewhere else, it sounded like it was trade volumes driving that up.

僅看一下您在第 5 頁或第 6 頁提供的幻燈片，我認為在其他地方的 CPP 上，聽起來像是貿易量推動了這一增長。

So the question is really Have you seen any change to the Mars component? I feel like a lot of the It has been more like a regionalized trade for a while and we've basically been waiting for the the in base and trade to pick up on the a lot of twos, right? So, are you seeing any change there?

所以真正的問題是，您是否看到火星組件發生任何變化？我覺得很多時候它更像是一種區域化貿易，我們基本上一直在等待基地和貿易來接收很多二，對嗎？那麼，您看到那裡有什麼變化嗎？

Yeah, so yes, trade volumes as as is exactly as you say on on slide number 6, I believe it is, has gone up the to a mile on this is reflected also in the fact that the Incentive to bring middle diss from especially the Middle Eastern hemisphere into the West has also increased in this period. So it means that everything has been equal. We both have an effect on the volume, but also on the distances sales. So it is a combination of both.

是的，正如您在幻燈片 6 上所說的那樣，我相信貿易量已經大幅上升，這也反映出將中東地區特別是中東半球的貿易帶入西方的動力在此期間也有所增加。所以這意味著一切都已經平等了。我們對銷售有影響，對距離銷售也有影響。所以它是兩者的結合。

Because of the restart, we should say, of middle this list into the inventories in northwest Europe. I think we were, if you followed our last couple of polls, I think we have been a little puzzled that that sort of from a strategic point of view that the the the suppliers of me this list were not.

我們應該說，這是因為重新開始將這個名單中間部分納入西北歐的清單中。如果你關注我們最近的幾次民意調查，我想我們會有點困惑，從戰略角度來看，這份名單上的供應商並不在考慮範圍內。

To a larger degree still maintaining their inventory at higher levels, but towards the end of the 2nd quarter, it was then clear that now you could no longer just eat out of inventory and that you needed to replenish, and that was done predominantly from the Middle East and also golf, but also Middle East driving up volumes and miles.

從更大程度上來說，他們仍然將庫存維持在較高水平，但到了第二季度末，很明顯，現在不能再僅僅消耗庫存，而是需要補充，而這主要透過中東和高爾夫來實現，而且中東也推動了銷量和里程的增加。

Great.

偉大的。

And then on the next slide, which was also great, the refinery closures, right.

然後在下一張幻燈片中，同樣精彩的是煉油廠關閉，對吧。

Can you talk a bit more, maybe talk you said it already, but what's the timeline here? When when can we expect this positive effect to kick in?

你能再多說一點嗎，也許你已經說過了，但這裡的時間表是什麼？我們什麼時候可以期待這種正面影響發揮作用？

Yeah, no, so we believe that at the end of 2025 already, so within this year, we will see the European.

是的，不，所以我們相信到 2025 年底，也就是今年，我們就會看到歐洲。

Refiners be closing down. So they have been, I would say.

煉油廠即將關閉。我想說，事實確實如此。

Moving along at a slow pace, but the decision has been made.

雖然進展緩慢，但決定已經做出。

For them to finally close business and and are no longer viable. So that will already be from the end of this year, whereas in the US West Coast, as I mentioned, that will be, in about a year time from now.

他們最終關閉了業務並且不再具有生存能力。所以這將是從今年年底開始的，而在美國西海岸，正如我所提到的，這將是從現在起大約一年後的事情。

Okay, it's one that time. It's middle of next year expected, yeah, mid, yeah, mid next year.

好的，這次就是這樣。預計是明年年中，是的，年中，是的，明年年中。

But it, it's obviously the greater picture around that if I just may add a little comment is that obviously that that from a political standpoint.

但它顯然是一個更大的圖景，如果我可以補充一點評論的話，那顯然是從政治角度來看的。

It is the ambition to close.

這是結束的雄心。

The local refineries down in, for instance, Western Europe and also US West Coast, but it has just proven that those actions have sort of accelerated compared to how fast the transition on the demand for exactly the products that they're producing. So it may be that that the consumption, let's say on the US West coast is Slowly going down, but the pace of closures is much faster than that, and that means that we will be called upon in the broader product and market to to carry more cargoes actually.

例如，西歐和美國西海岸的當地煉油廠，但事實證明，與他們生產的產品的需求轉變速度相比，這些行動的速度有所加快。因此，假設美國西海岸的消費量正在緩慢下降，但關閉的速度要快得多，這意味著我們將被要求在更廣泛的產品和市場上運載更多的貨物。

Yeah, indeed.

是的，確實如此。

I guess my final expression is on the This Russian price cap change.

我想我的最終表達是關於俄羅斯價格上限的變化。

Specifically, I guess, I mean, there's a lot of 2s that are trading into dirty trades, right, which has been positive, but then when the EU lowers the price cap.

具體來說，我想，我的意思是，有很多 2 正在進行骯髒交易，對吧，這是積極的，但是當歐盟降低價格上限時。

You might The Aromaxis, right, that are trading legally Russian food today.

您可能是 Aromaxis，對的，他們今天正在合法銷售俄羅斯食品。

We lose that compliance and then they have to move out of that trade and into the conventional market.

我們失去了這種合規性，然後他們必須退出該貿易並進入傳統市場。

Which would put downward pressure on that good rates probably.

這可能會對優惠利率造成下行壓力。

Do you see that as a threat to that switching for or?

您是否認為這對轉換來說是一個威脅？

Not.

不是。

Yeah, I think that it is clearly.

是的，我認為很明顯。

The jury up.

陪審團成立。

On the real effect of this, I think that The fact that that these vessels, especially if you look at the type of vessels that have been sanctioned.

關於此事的實際影響，我認為，事實上這些船隻，特別是如果你看看受到製裁的船隻類型。

Which in many cases also would be the vessels that you want to.

在很多情況下，這也是您想要的容器。

Whether they can Easily both from sort of a A commercial point of view, be accepted back in the straits that we operate in as number one, and whether they are also actually maintained in that is what I would probably argue that on the margin, a lot of vessels will not easily come back. And I think quite a lot of vessels are actually not maintained to a standard where it makes sense for them to sort of be. Retrofitted into the standard of our type of customers. So obviously the jury is out, but it does seem to me as if when investments have been made by people into the gray feet or the dark feet and that they then subsequently get sanctioned.

從商業角度來看，它們是否能夠輕易地被我們作為第一大船隻作業的海峽所接受，以及它們是否也能夠真正地在那裡得到維護，我可能會認為，在邊緣上，很多船隻不會輕易回來。我認為很多船隻的維護其實並沒有達到合理的標準。改造以符合我們這類客戶的標準。顯然，陪審團還沒有做出裁決，但在我看來，當人們對灰腳或黑腳進行投資時，他們隨後就會受到製裁。

They are not looking for a long term investment. They're looking for the short term gains of being in a trade that few people want to touch and the sort of the operating earning is what they're looking at, it's not the maintenance of the vessel.

他們並不尋求長期投資。他們尋求的是很少人願意涉足的行業的短期收益，他們關注的是營業利潤，而不是船舶的維護。

That is the main focus.

這是主要焦點。

So the jury out, I think that it could be negative, as you point to for midsize rather than more positive for for the UCCs as as this trade goes on, but most likely there is quite a part of the Of this, let's say.

因此，我認為隨著貿易的進行，對於中型企業來說，這可能是負面的，而不是對 UCC 更有利的，但最有可能的是，其中有相當一部分是這樣的。

Crude trading E2 FMaxes of all the vintage already sanctioned, they will have a hard time coming back either for sort of commercial reasons or because of after a period of time that they are substandard.

所有已批准的年份的 E2 FMax 原油交易都將很難再恢復，要么是因為商業原因，要么是因為在一段時間後它們不符合標準。

Okay.

好的。

It's all.

就這些了。

Thank you guys.

謝謝你們。

Thanks for.

謝謝。

The good questions.

好問題。

Your final question comes from the line of Clement Mullins with Value Investors Edge. You may go ahead.

您的最後一個問題來自 Value Investors Edge 的 Clement Mullins。你可以繼續。

Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to start by following up on John's question on the cash break even.

大家好，下午好，感謝您回答我的問題。首先我想回答一下約翰關於現金損益平衡的問題。

Could you talk a bit about the average margin on the single list that you're buying back relative to the margin on the new financing facilities?

您能否談談您回購的單一清單的平均保證金相對於新融資工具的保證金的情況？

I think it is, I think you can actually find it in our 20. I would recommend you take the 20 where you can find both, you can find the full overview of our leasing arrangement. The reason why I'm saying that it is a split on the specific arrangements and of course it's a lot of cost, but it is a fixed rate there.

我認為是的，我認為你實際上可以在我們的 20 中找到它。我建議您選擇 20，因為您可以找到兩者，您可以找到我們租賃安排的完整概述。我之所以這麼說，是因為具體安排上有分歧，當然成本也很大，但這是一個固定的比率。

So the comparison here is when you then do get into the syndicate facilities we've made.

因此，這裡的比較是當您進入我們建立的辛迪加設施時。

That will also be published. We've not published it, but the rate is, it will also be visible in our upcoming 20th or 2025, but it is notably lower than what you can see that we have in our current syndicated facilities that are around 1.85%, 1.9%, so it's significantly lower than that.

這也將被發布。我們還沒有公佈，但這個利率在我們即將到來的 20 世紀或 2025 年也會出現，但它明顯低於我們在當前銀團貸款設施中看到的利率，約為 1.85%、1.9%，所以它明顯低於這個水平。

Makes sense. Thanks for the caller. And you sold the 2008 Bill To Discover and the Torn Voyager. Could you disclose the selling price for modeling purposes?

有道理。謝謝您的來電。您還賣掉了 2008 年的 Bill To Discover 和 Torn Voyager。能否透露一下建模時的售價？

We have agreed not to disclose the prices for those reasons.

基於這些原因，我們同意不透露價格。

With the With the bio of them.

附上他們的履歷。

Alright.

好吧。

I have to TRY.

我必須嘗試一下。

Thank you for taking my time.

感謝您抽出時間。

That's fair.

這很公平。

Of course Any more questions?

當然還有其他問題嗎？

That concludes today's question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Jacob Milgar for closing remarks. You may go ahead.

今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我想將電話轉回給雅各布·米爾加 (Jacob Milgar) 作結束語。你可以繼續。

Yeah, thank you very much, and I just want to say thanks to all of you for being interested in so and for listening in today. Have a great day.

是的，非常感謝，我只想感謝大家對此感興趣並今天的收聽。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。您可以斷開連線。