Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Ryanair FY '23 Earnings Call. My name is Maxine, and I'll be coordinating the call today. (Operator Instructions) I will now hand over to your host, Michael O'Leary, Group CEO of Ryanair Holdings plc to begin. Michael, please go ahead when you're ready.

歡迎來到瑞安航空 23 財年財報電話會議。我叫 Maxine，今天我將負責協調電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在將交給您的主持人，瑞安航空控股有限公司集團首席執行官邁克爾奧利裡開始。邁克爾，準備好後請繼續。

Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Ryanair full year results investor call. We have extensive numbers of teams all dialing in because we have an extensive -- today and I think 12 teams on the road show this week. So anybody looking for a meeting, please call any of our brokers out of Davy, Citi or Goodbody.

好的。早上好，女士們，先生們。歡迎來到瑞安航空全年業績投資者電話會議。我們有大量的團隊都在撥入，因為我們有一個廣泛的 - 今天，我認為本周有 12 個團隊參加路演。因此，任何想要會面的人，請致電我們來自 Davy、Citi 或 Goodbody 的任何經紀人。

I take the results as read. We have an extensive presentation, Q&A on the ryanair.com website. Go there. While you're there, make some bookings. You'll need them this summer as prices are rising. To touch briefly on the last 12 months, we've sort of seen a very strong recovery. Traffic grew to 168.6 million passenger, which is up 13% in our pre-COVID capacity in a marketplace in Europe, which was operating last year at less than 90% pre-COVID capacity. So Ryanair has been taking enormous sways of market share in almost all markets across Europe. While our traffic has recovered last year ahead of COVID, profits are still marginally behind where they were pre-COVID at EUR 1.43 billion Nevertheless, a very strong performance at a time when most of our certainly the alleged local competitors in Europe are losing -- are still reporting losses for the last year. Underpinning that was a very strong fuel hedge performance last year, and that poses a challenge for it going forward over the next 12 months.

我將結果視為已讀。我們在 ryanair.com 網站上有廣泛的介紹和問答。去那裡。當你在那裡時，進行一些預訂。隨著價格上漲，今年夏天您將需要它們。簡要回顧過去 12 個月，我們看到了非常強勁的複蘇。客運量增長至 1.686 億人次，較我們在歐洲市場的 COVID 前運力增長了 13%，而該市場去年的運力還不到 COVID 前運力的 90%。因此，瑞安航空一直在歐洲幾乎所有市場佔據巨大的市場份額。雖然去年我們的流量在 COVID 之前已經恢復，但利潤仍略低於 COVID 之前的水平，為 14.3 億歐元儘管如此，在我們大多數所謂的歐洲本地競爭對手正在虧損的時候，我們的表現非常強勁——仍在報告去年的虧損。支撐這一點的是去年非常強勁的燃料對沖表現，這對其未來 12 個月的發展構成了挑戰。

Looking out a couple of broad themes which I'd like to explore, I think during the Q&A, in particular. We're looking out into a year where we have embedded an enormous cost advantage over almost every other airline in Europe. I think one of the very significant results of COVID has been two things. One, a huge amount of capacity has been weeded out of Europe. You've seen a huge number of airlines with quite a considerable capacity (inaudible) Thomas Cook, Flybe, Germanwings. The other incumbents that survived COVID have either, a, structurally reduced their capacity. Alitalia is operating at 60% pre-COVID capacity. TAP about 50% pre-COVID capacity. Lufthansa, for example, this year in the German market is still only operating at 80% of its pre-COVID capacity in the short-haul market, and yet prices have doubled. So there is heavily constrained capacity. The other feature of COVID and particularly when we look back and rewrite the history -- or write the history of COVID has been a seismic movement in the unit cost gap between Ryanair and every other airline Europe.

看看我想探討的幾個廣泛主題，我認為在問答環節尤其如此。展望未來一年，我們將比歐洲幾乎所有其他航空公司都具有巨大的成本優勢。我認為 COVID 的一個非常重要的結果是兩件事。第一，大量產能已被淘汰出歐洲。您已經看到大量具有相當大運力（聽不清）的航空公司 Thomas Cook、Flybe、Germanwings。在 COVID 中倖存下來的其他現任者，a，在結構上降低了他們的能力。意大利航空公司在 COVID 之前以 60% 的運力運營。 TAP 約 50% 的 COVID 前容量。以漢莎航空為例，今年在德國市場的短途市場運力仍僅為疫情前的 80%，但價格卻翻了一番。因此，容量受到嚴重限制。 COVID 的另一個特點，尤其是當我們回顧並重寫歷史時——或者寫下 COVID 的歷史，是瑞安航空與歐洲其他航空公司之間單位成本差距的巨大變化。

We have worked extraordinarily high during COVID to keep our ex-fuel unit cost down at around EUR 30, EUR 31 per passenger, but we've seen most of our competitors suffer very significant increases in their operating -- in their unit cost. Most of our local competitors had higher wages and labor before COVID. They're even higher now. Their airport and handling costs have materially moved upwards, while we, thanks to our growth, have been able to maintain low and stable airport and handling costs. But on the ownership and maintenance side, Ryanair had, thanks to the renegotiation with Boeing during the MAX grounding, we have seen a very substantial widening of our ownership and maintenance cost advantage over most of our competitors, almost all of whom either are operating almost entirely leased fleet or went into COVID owning a significant proportion of their fleet but came out of COVID with most of their fleet refinanced on sales and leaseback.

在 COVID 期間，我們付出了非常高的努力，以將我們的前燃料單位成本降低到每名乘客 30 歐元、31 歐元左右，但我們看到我們的大多數競爭對手的運營——單位成本——都遭受了非常顯著的增加。在 COVID 之前，我們大多數本地競爭對手的工資和勞動力都更高。他們現在更高了。他們的機場和處理成本大幅上升，而我們，由於我們的增長，已經能夠保持低而穩定的機場和處理成本。但在所有權和維護方面，由於在 MAX 停飛期間與波音公司重新談判，瑞安航空的所有權和維護成本優勢大大擴大，超過了我們的大多數競爭對手，幾乎所有競爭對手幾乎都在運營完全租賃機隊或進入 COVID 時擁有很大一部分機隊，但從 COVID 中退出時，他們的大部分機隊通過銷售和回租進行再融資。

And as we move into an environment, in a world environment of significantly higher rates and financing costs, our competitors will be paying significantly higher aircraft and ownership most going forward for the next number of years, whereas our aircraft and ownership cost will be low and will keep low. And I think if you look at where we stand now with a widening cost advantage, the ability to enter into markets all over Europe, regardless of who the incumbent is where we can get lost at airport, I think that we're looking at a fundamental shift in European aviation towards Ryanair, large market share gain.

隨著我們進入一個利率和融資成本顯著提高的環境，我們的競爭對手將在接下來的幾年裡支付高得多的飛機和所有權，而我們的飛機和所有權成本將很低，而且將保持低位。而且我認為，如果你看看我們現在所處的位置，成本優勢不斷擴大，進入整個歐洲市場的能力，無論現任者是誰，我們都可以在機場迷路，我認為我們正在尋找一個歐洲航空業從根本上轉向瑞安航空，市場份額大幅增加。

Looking out over the next 12 months, we expect to grow our traffic to 185 million passengers. And to put that in context, that's 25% more than our pre-COVID traffic in a marketplace where short-haul capacity will be at best 90%, 95% of pre-COVID capacity. And it is that constrained capacity is, in my view, what is delivering or what is sustaining this strong demand outlook. We, and all of our competitors, are seeing this summer. Capacity is still behind pre-COVID. Demand is significantly stronger. People who have been locked up for 2, 3 -- 2.5 years are going back traveling. I think there's a very unusual scenario in Europe where essentially full employment. People are getting paid at the end of every month. And despite fears over energy cost, inflation, rising interest rates, they are spending money. And the travel, business travel, leisure travel, visiting friends and family is no longer a luxury. It appears to be kind of a necessity.

展望未來 12 個月，我們預計客運量將增至 1.85 億人次。考慮到這一點，這比我們在短途運力最多為 90% 的市場中的 COVID 前流量高出 25%，是 COVID 前運力的 95%。在我看來，正是產能受限才是交付或維持這種強勁需求前景的原因。我們和我們所有的競爭對手都將在今年夏天看到。容量仍落後於 COVID 之前。需求明顯強勁。被關押 2 年、3 年——2.5 年的人正在回去旅行。我認為歐洲存在一種非常不尋常的情況，基本上是充分就業。人們在每個月底收到報酬。儘管擔心能源成本、通貨膨脹、利率上升，他們還是在花錢。而旅遊、商務旅行、休閒旅遊、探親訪友不再是奢侈。這似乎是一種必需品。

And so we're looking out into this summer with, as we said, advance bookings stronger than they were pre-COVID. And forward airfares, slightly higher than they were pre last year. And again -- and that's why we have to be a little bit cautious on guidance here. An awful lot of the strengthening of airfare is the last 10%, 15%, 20% of passengers. We have spent most of this year, already passed to book early because prices we think will rise. There would be no near-term short setoff in airfares. Prices are rising. Demand is strong. Europe is being welcomely -- will be invaded by American visitors, is somewhat because the strength of the dollar, and we're also seeing Asian traffic recover.

因此，正如我們所說，我們正在展望今年夏天，提前預訂比 COVID 之前更強勁。遠期機票價格略高於去年。再一次 - 這就是為什麼我們必須對這裡的指導保持謹慎。機票價格上漲的絕大部分是最後10%、15%、20%的乘客。我們度過了今年的大部分時間，已經提前預訂了，因為我們認為價格會上漲。近期機票價格不會出現短期抵消。價格在上漲。需求強勁。歐洲受到歡迎 - 將受到美國遊客的入侵，這在某種程度上是因為美元走強，我們也看到亞洲交通正在復蘇。

We're well hedged on fuel although our fuel bill this year would be about EUR 1 billion higher than it was last year, thanks to the strength of our hedges last year. The Boeing delivery delays are getting resolved. I think we're now down to talking weeks instead of months for the remaining aircraft for this summer. We're now reasonably confident we're going to get all of the 51 aircraft by the end of July. There will be a disruption to -- we've had to take out some capacity in June and July, but we don't expect it to cost us more than 600,000, 800,000 passengers, which in a year where we're forecasting to write 185 million passengers will be largely immaterial. With the benefit of our widening cost advantage, we're rolling out those 50 new aircraft across most markets across Europe, where competitors appear to be in retreat. Many of them are focusing on building up their capacity at their fortress airports or they're switching capacity away from competing Ryanair to the Middle East which I think is a good sensible strategy.

儘管我們今年的燃料費用將比去年高出約 10 億歐元，但我們在燃料方面進行了很好的對沖，這要歸功於我們去年的對沖力度。波音公司的交付延誤正在得到解決。我認為我們現在可以就今年夏天剩餘的飛機進行數周而不是數月的談判。我們現在有理由相信，我們將在 7 月底之前獲得所有 51 架飛機。將會中斷 - 我們不得不在 6 月和 7 月取消一些運力，但我們預計它不會讓我們損失超過 600,000、800,000 名乘客，這是我們預測的一年1.85 億乘客在很大程度上將是無關緊要的。憑藉我們不斷擴大的成本優勢，我們正在歐洲大多數市場推出這 50 架新飛機，而在這些市場上，競爭對手似乎正在撤退。他們中的許多人都專注於在他們的堡壘機場建立容量，或者他們正在將容量從競爭對手瑞安航空公司轉移到中東，我認為這是一個很好的明智策略。

Over the medium term, we see capacity being -- that capacity constraint story being maintained. There is -- the OEMs are challenged. Obviously, they have large backlog. Airbus is suffering significant delivery delays as is Boeing. There was little prospect, I think, given the challenge in the supply chain that there would be a dramatic increase in monthly production for the next 2 or 3 years, it will creep upwards, but it creep up in 1s and 2s, not 10s and 15s. And as you've seen a surge of orders post -- I mean, firstly, Airbus' order book is essentially full out to the early 2030s. Boeing have been doing great work in, I think, this year to date, signing up a number of very significant orders, with Tata in India. Our order for 300 new aircraft, there is more coming at the IATA conference in Istanbul in June and at the Paris Air Show.

從中期來看，我們看到容量正在——容量限制的故事得到維持。有 - 原始設備製造商面臨挑戰。顯然，他們有大量積壓。空中客車公司和波音公司都面臨嚴重的交付延誤。我認為，考慮到供應鏈中的挑戰，即未來 2 或 3 年的月產量將急劇增加，它的前景不大，它會緩慢上升，但它會在 1 秒和 2 秒內緩慢上升，而不是 10 秒和15 秒。正如你所看到的訂單激增——我的意思是，首先，到 2030 年代初，空客的訂單基本上已經滿了。我認為，今年迄今為止，波音公司一直在做著出色的工作，與印度的塔塔公司簽訂了一些非常重要的訂單。我們訂購了 300 架新飛機，6 月在伊斯坦布爾舉行的 IATA 會議和巴黎航空展上還會有更多飛機訂購。

And I think we're looking at an environment where essentially the OEM order books are completely full out to the early 2030. The good news is in Ryanair, we have -- we still have access to 50 aircraft a year for the next 3 summers. We will continue to roll out growth. And I mean, it's astonishing to me that we're the largest airline in Europe by some considerable (inaudible) 185 million passengers. Yet, we're still delivering 10% growth. And that is the strength of the Ryanair model. The huge cost advantage we have over every other airline. And our ability to go in with very low fares, stimulate growth. And I think the way all of our competitors, every time I listen to a competitor investor call when they're talking about very dramatic fare increases, fares rising by 20%, 30%, and that is driving traffic towards Ryanair. We don't expect our efforts to rise by those very, I think, irrationally exuberant numbers this year. We do expect our airfares this summer to be stronger than they were last summer. So we need that to pay for the full restoration of our people's pay and the higher oil bill.

而且我認為我們正在尋找一個環境，在這個環境中，原始設備製造商的訂單基本上會在 2030 年初完全用完。好消息是瑞安航空，我們有 - 在接下來的 3 個夏天，我們每年仍然可以使用 50 架飛機.我們將繼續推出增長。我的意思是，令我驚訝的是，我們是歐洲最大的航空公司，擁有相當數量（聽不清）的 1.85 億乘客。然而，我們仍然實現了 10% 的增長。這就是瑞安航空模式的優勢。與其他所有航空公司相比，我們擁有巨大的成本優勢。我們有能力以非常低的票價進入，刺激增長。我認為我們所有的競爭對手的方式，每次我聽到競爭對手的投資者電話時，當他們談論非常戲劇性的票價上漲時，票價上漲 20%、30%，這正在推動瑞安航空的交通。我們預計今年我們的努力不會增加那些非常，我認為，非理性旺盛的數字。我們確實預計今年夏天的機票價格會比去年夏天高。所以我們需要這筆錢來支付我們人民工資的全面恢復和更高的石油費用。

Looking out over the medium term in a constrained environment, I think one of the key features of the Ryanair story will now be the 300 -- we recently announced 300 Boeing MAX order. This order secures our growth out to the mid-2030s in an environment where there will be very scarce aircraft availability. The pricing is exceptional. Yes, we are paying a slightly higher price than we paid in our last order. But as I said previously, if you factor in the delivery delay compensation, the price per seat comes out as a little bit less than our last order in 2014. So I think our timing was fortuitous. We're very pleased to have a long order book with Boeing. And we think and look forward that, that will deliver very stable growth.

在受限的環境中展望中期，我認為瑞安航空故事的一個關鍵特徵現在將是 300——我們最近宣布了 300 架波音 MAX 訂單。該訂單確保我們在飛機可用性非常稀缺的環境中發展到 2030 年代中期。定價是特殊的。是的，我們支付的價格略高於我們上次訂購時支付的價格。但正如我之前所說，如果將交付延遲補償考慮在內，每個座位的價格會比我們 2014 年的最後一個訂單低一點。所以我認為我們的時機是偶然的。我們很高興與波音公司簽訂長期訂單。我們認為並期待著，這將帶來非常穩定的增長。

The growth will slow down as we get to 2027 at the MAX-10 orders, we don't expect to be growing at 10% a year over 225 million passenger, but we do expect to be growing at mid-single digits, 5%, 6% a year. That means we'll still be able to offer our airport partners 10 million, 15 million passenger growth a year. We will be still the beneficiary of low-cost aircraft that we will be purchasing out of internally generated cash flow. So we're not going on some debt splurge. And it means we will be able to widen the unit cost gap between us and all of our competitors across Europe.

隨著 MAX-10 訂單到 2027 年，增長將放緩，我們預計不會以每年 10% 的速度增長超過 2.25 億乘客，但我們確實預計將以中等個位數增長，即 5% , 每年 6%。這意味著我們仍然能夠為我們的機場合作夥伴提供每年 1000 萬、1500 萬的乘客增長。我們仍將是低成本飛機的受益者，我們將使用內部產生的現金流購買這些飛機。所以我們不會揮霍債務。這意味著我們將能夠擴大我們與歐洲所有競爭對手之間的單位成本差距。

So I think we will and hopefully be able to deliver a decade of sustained careful, slower profitable and remunerative growth. And I think it's critical that we've now established a new target of growing to 300 million passengers by 2034. And to put that in some context, that is 100% growth over our pre-COVID figure of 149 million passengers in our last year pre-COVID. It is astonishing, the demand that is out there across Europe. There are some lazy analysts out there who believe that Europe is tapped out for growth. It isn't. We are still growing strongly as news says this morning in Italy, in Spain and Portugal, even in mature markets like Ireland and the U.K., we're seeing very significant growth. Central and Eastern Europe, there is enormous demand for Ryanair. People are fed up paying high fares of our incumbent competitors and we have more growth opportunities out there than we can handle, not just for the next 12 months, but certainly for the next 5 or 6 years.

因此，我認為我們將並希望能夠實現十年的持續謹慎、緩慢的盈利和報酬增長。而且我認為至關重要的是，我們現在已經制定了到 2034 年增加到 3 億乘客的新目標。在某種情況下，這比我們去年 COVID 前的 1.49 億乘客增長了 100%前 COVID。令人驚訝的是，整個歐洲都有這種需求。那裡有一些懶惰的分析師認為歐洲正在挖掘增長潛力。它不是。正如今天早上的消息所說，我們仍在強勁增長，在意大利、西班牙和葡萄牙，甚至在愛爾蘭和英國等成熟市場，我們都看到了非常顯著的增長。中歐和東歐對瑞安航空有著巨大的需求。人們已經厭倦了為我們現有的競爭對手支付高價，我們有更多的增長機會，我們無法處理，不僅是在接下來的 12 個月裡，而且肯定是在接下來的 5 或 6 年裡。

One parting cautionary note, and I know everybody will lose their (inaudible) themselves. Q1 is going to be very strong. Q1 is entirely distorted by the impact of the illegal Russian invasion in Ukraine last year, which collapsed Easter and badly damaged both traffic and fares into Q1 of FY '23. We had to go out and dump yields that stimulates travel into Q1. So I caution just a note that I wanted on the record, Q1 would be very strong. It would be distortedly strong because there's a weak prior year comparison. And when many of our competitors are out there telling you about the new paradigm on how ones (inaudible) be cautious. Q1 would be very strong. We think the next -- FY '24 will not be driven by Q1. We are cautiously guiding but one we're confident, we will grow to 185 million passengers. That would be approximately 10% growth over next year.

臨別警告，我知道每個人都會失去他們（聽不清）自己。 Q1 將非常強勁。第一季度完全被俄羅斯去年非法入侵烏克蘭的影響所扭曲，這導致復活節崩潰，嚴重破壞了 23 財年第一季度的交通和票價。我們不得不出去拋售刺激旅行進入第一季度的收益率。所以我只提醒一個注意事項，我想記錄在案，Q1 會非常強勁。它會非常強大，因為前一年的比較較弱。當我們的許多競爭對手在那裡告訴您關於如何（聽不清）如何保持謹慎的新範例時。 Q1 會非常強勁。我們認為下一個 - FY '24 不會由第一季度驅動。我們正在謹慎指導，但我們有信心，我們將增長到 1.85 億乘客。這將比明年增長約 10%。

We cannot give guidance today. Too much of the yield story depends on the last 20% or 30% of our passenger bookings. It looks like Q2 will be strong, certainly, if there's nothing untoward. But at this point in time, we have less than 5% of the (inaudible) towards the second half of the year, which is the December and March quarters. We see no reason why they won't continue to wait -- demand won't continue to be strong. But we're cautious. We think we're right to be cautious and that we -- I think it's appropriate that we share -- caution everybody, we've seen too much, I think, irrationally exuberance from our competitors. But there's no doubt that there is a strong recovery underway in a market where Ryanair is taking huge market share, in a market where capacity will be constrained not just for the next 12 months, but for the next 4 or 5 years. And only Ryanair has a decade of aircraft or of aircraft deliveries and sustainable growth to deliver over that period of time.

我們今天無法提供指導。太多的收益故事取決於我們最後 20% 或 30% 的乘客預訂。如果沒有任何不利情況，看起來第二季度肯定會很強勁。但在這個時間點，我們只有不到 5% 的（聽不清）到今年下半年，即 12 月和 3 月的季度。我們認為他們沒有理由不繼續等待——需求不會繼續強勁。但我們很謹慎。我們認為我們保持謹慎是正確的，並且我們 - 我認為我們分享是適當的 - 提醒大家，我認為我們已經看到太多來自我們競爭對手的非理性繁榮。但毫無疑問，瑞安航空正在佔據巨大市場份額的市場正在強勁復甦，該市場的運力不僅在未來 12 個月內，而且在未來 4 或 5 年內都將受到限制。並且只有瑞安航空擁有十年的飛機或飛機交付量以及在此期間實現的可持續增長。

Neil, do you want to take us through the highlights of the Q&A, please?

尼爾，你想給我們介紹一下問答環節的要點嗎？

Sure, Michael. Thanks very much for that. You've covered off very nicely on the unit cost performance that we had. I think it's important to call out the strength of the balance sheet. We've seen a good recovery in our balance sheet over the course of the past year. We finished with very strong liquidity of EUR 4.7 billion, but importantly, moved into a net cash position of just under EUR 600 million from debt of EUR 1.45 billion at the same time last year. We'll caution, however, that, that was flattered by the timing of aircraft deliveries, which meant that about EUR 450 million of CapEx has now been timed from FY '23 into FY '24.

當然，邁克爾。非常感謝。您已經很好地掩蓋了我們的單位成本績效。我認為強調資產負債表的實力很重要。在過去的一年裡，我們的資產負債表出現了良好的複蘇。我們以 47 億歐元的非常強勁的流動性結束，但重要的是，去年同期從 14.5 億歐元的債務中轉移到略低於 6 億歐元的淨現金頭寸。然而，我們要提醒的是，飛機交付的時間讓我們感到受寵若驚，這意味著從 23 財年到 24 財年，現在已經安排了大約 4.5 億歐元的資本支出。

The balance sheet, however, remains extremely strong. And last week, S&P upgraded us to BBB+, which I think is in recognition of the fact that nearly all of the -- fleet is on balance sheet owned and unencumbered, which as Michael already said, greatly enhances the financing gap that we have between ourselves and everybody else. Interest rates are rising, but we're paying maturing bonds at our own (inaudible). We're not taking on expensive leases. And over the course of the next year, we'll judiciously use that cash having restored pay for our people. We'll now deal with the CapEx of EUR 2.6 billion over the course of the next year and pay down EUR 1.5 billion bonds, of which EUR 850 million was already paid off in March just gone and another EUR 750 million in August of this year. And then, of course, with the new MAX-10 order book coming, we will start to build up the war chest for that with CapEx starting to rise and thereon. But the balance sheet is in a good place. Costs in a good place.

然而，資產負債表仍然非常強勁。上週，標準普爾將我們升級為 BBB+，我認為這是對幾乎所有船隊都在資產負債表上擁有且無負擔這一事實的認可，正如邁克爾已經說過的那樣，這大大增加了我們之間的融資缺口我們自己和其他人。利率在上升，但我們正在自己支付到期債券（聽不清）。我們不接受昂貴的租約。在明年的過程中，我們將明智地使用這筆現金來恢復我們員工的工資。我們現在將在明年處理 26 億歐元的資本支出，並償還 15 億歐元的債券，其中 8.5 億歐元已經在 3 月份還清，另外 7.5 億歐元在今年 8 月還清.然後，當然，隨著新的 MAX-10 訂單的到來，我們將開始為此積累資金，資本支出開始上升。但資產負債表狀況良好。成本在一個好地方。

Okay. Thanks, Neil, Eddie, would you want to give us just some insight into the market trends in the summer and medium-term growth opportunities across Europe.

好的。謝謝，尼爾，埃迪，你想給我們一些關於歐洲夏季市場趨勢和中期增長機會的見解嗎？

Yes. Again, as referred to earlier, I mean, fares are strong going into the summer. We continue to grow. We've got -- our new bases are going well in Belfast and the Canaries. We've added aircraft to 11 bases, 2 aircraft to 11 bases. We have added one aircraft to 23 bases. The only base that was -- that went backwards was advent of this year for cost reasons. So I mean, across all market segments, we've seen them all recover as traffic has recovered.

是的。同樣，如前所述，我的意思是，進入夏季的票價很強勁。我們繼續成長。我們已經 - 我們在貝爾法斯特和金絲雀的新基地進展順利。我們已經為 11 個基地增加了飛機，為 11 個基地增加了 2 架飛機。我們在 23 個基地增加了一架飛機。由於成本原因，唯一倒退的基礎是今年的到來。所以我的意思是，在所有細分市場中，我們已經看到它們都隨著流量的恢復而恢復。

We see very positive signs in places like Spain, where the government has taken a sensible decision there, which feeds into our cost base of lowering costs at airports, putting incentives in for secondary airports and freezing costs out to 2027. Likewise, seeing largely privately owned airports in Italy, many of the smaller ones dependent on Ryanair. And again, we've got to push down airfares into secondary airports where we're competing with ourselves.

我們在西班牙等地看到了非常積極的跡象，政府在那裡做出了明智的決定，這反映了我們降低機場成本的成本基礎，為二級機場提供激勵措施並將成本凍結到 2027 年。同樣，主要是私下觀察在意大利擁有機場，其中許多較小的機場依賴瑞安航空。再一次，我們必須降低我們與自己競爭的二級機場的機票價格。

But as you look right across very weak markets, with incumbent reducing in places like the Baltics with SAS going into Chapter 11. TAP operating at 50%. easyJet operating at a fraction of itself and continuing to grow in markets where we have substantial market share like Ireland, for example, where we've got, again, the largest summer schedule ever. So like right across the peaks in U.K. as well. German regional airports and in French regional airports as well. So robust demand out there.

但是當你看到非常疲軟的市場時，隨著 SAS 進入第 11 章，波羅的海等地區的老牌企業正在減少。TAP 以 50% 的比例運營。 easyJet 以自身的一小部分運營，並在我們擁有大量市場份額的市場繼續增長，例如愛爾蘭，例如，我們再次擁有有史以來最大的夏季時間表。所以就像穿過英國的山峰一樣。德國支線機場和法國支線機場也是如此。那裡的需求如此強勁。

Good. Okay. I think with that, let's open it up to Q&A, please.

好的。好的。我認為，讓我們打開問答環節。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Jaime Rowbotham from Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Jaime Rowbotham。

Two from me. Michael, point taken on the dangers of looking at the yield on a year-on-year basis for the next quarter. But compared to the same quarter pre-COVID, your March quarter fares were I think about 26% above. Can we think about them being at a similar premium to precrisis levels in the upcoming June quarter?

我的兩個。邁克爾指出，在下個季度按年計算收益率是有風險的。但與 COVID 之前的同一季度相比，我認為你們 3 月季度的票價高出約 26%。我們可以考慮在即將到來的 6 月季度，它們的溢價與危機前的水平相似嗎？

Second one's on the costs. Good to see the fuel largely locked in. In terms of the nonfuel unit costs, it sounds like it's mainly staff pay restoration and the on-route charges driving the expected increase. Are there any other cost actions you can take to offset other than getting the 737 MAX in to improve the fleet mix?

第二個是成本。很高興看到燃料基本鎖定。就非燃料單位成本而言，聽起來主要是員工工資的恢復和推動預期增長的在途費用。除了引入 737 MAX 以改善機隊組合之外，您是否可以採取任何其他成本措施來抵消成本？

Two good questions. Firstly, on the yields, clearly, we can't predict what's going to happen yield-wise. I would be more cautious than that. I don't think we will see 26% replicated -- growth replicated in the first half of next year. There is no -- all I can give you at the moment is with about 80% of seats sold for Q1 at this point in time of about 40% of seats sold in Q2. Average fares are running modestly ahead of where they were at this time last year and bookings are stronger. So I think the yields will be up modestly.

兩個好問題。首先，關於收益率，很明顯，我們無法預測收益率方面會發生什麼。我會比那更謹慎。我不認為我們會看到 26% 的複制 - 明年上半年復制增長。沒有——我現在能給你的只是第一季度大約 80% 的席位售出，第二季度售出大約 40% 的席位。平均票價略高於去年同期，預訂量也有所增加。所以我認為收益率會適度上升。

We could have a very strong June and August. We're not used to these kind of environment. We haven't been in an environment for 25 years, but we have capacity down net-net over a 2-year period and demand surging with Transatlantic and the Asian traffic feeding into the mix of very strong Europe -- intra-European travel. So it could be better than that, but I would urge caution at the moment to let's see where we get to.

我們可能會有一個非常強勁的 6 月和 8 月。我們不習慣這種環境。我們已經有 25 年沒有處於這種環境中了，但我們的運力在 2 年內下降了，而且隨著跨大西洋和亞洲交通進入非常強大的歐洲——歐洲內部旅行的組合，需求激增。所以它可能比那更好，但我現在會敦促謹慎，讓我們看看我們到達哪裡。

Again, and I come back to Q1 would be distortedly strong because of the weak prior year. The Q2, the half year numbers in November will tell everything. We could have a very strong H1. I would be cautious at this time. I always get nervous in this industry when all my competitors are predicting huge booms and blue sky scenarios and -- 20% and 30% bare increases, I get cautious.

再一次，我回到第一季度會因為前一年的疲軟而扭曲強勁。第二季度，11 月份的半年數據將說明一切。我們可以有一個非常強大的 H1。這個時候我會很謹慎。當我所有的競爭對手都在預測巨大的繁榮和藍天情景時，我總是對這個行業感到緊張——20% 和 30% 的增長，我變得謹慎起來。

Nonfuel unit costs, I think, again, the only slide you need to look at in our presentation is Slide 4. It is not so much what happened to absolute unit cost. It's that the gap is materially widening between us and every other airline in Europe. But you're right, I think we will have pay inflation over the next number of years. We've worked hard on pay restoration. We've restored the payable all of our pilot, cabin crew by agreement with the union. We built in pay increases each year over the next 3 or 4 years down -- depending on whichever country the deal is done.

非燃料單位成本，我認為，在我們的演示文稿中您唯一需要看的幻燈片是幻燈片 4。絕對單位成本發生的變化並不多。我們與歐洲所有其他航空公司之間的差距正在顯著擴大。但你是對的，我認為我們將在未來幾年內出現薪酬膨脹。我們一直在努力恢復薪酬。根據與工會的協議，我們已經恢復了所有飛行員和機組人員的應付款。在接下來的 3 或 4 年裡，我們每年都會加薪——這取決於交易在哪個國家完成。

We have also increased headcount significantly this summer because of the experience of the airport security and staffing shortages last year. We're more crewed. We have better crew ratios this summer. We are seeing that translated into better on-time performance, better customer service, although being derailed every time there's a French ATC strike, and we've had 55 of those already this year.

由於去年機場安全和人員短缺的經歷，我們今年夏天也大幅增加了員工人數。我們的船員更多。今年夏天我們有更好的船員比例。我們看到這轉化為更好的準時性能、更好的客戶服務，儘管每次法國 ATC 罷工都會出軌，今年我們已經有 55 次罷工。

But the things I would point to, where there will continue to be a widening gap will be on the staff ratio, staff cost between us and our competitors. I think there'll be more inflation on the Airbus fleet across Europe whereas B737 employer, I think there will be less pay, marginally less pay. We will remain competitive.

但我要指出的是，我們與競爭對手之間的員工比例、員工成本將繼續擴大差距。我認為整個歐洲的空客機隊會有更多的通貨膨脹，而 B737 的雇主，我認為工資會減少，工資會略有減少。我們將保持競爭力。

Airport and handling will continue to be a huge differentiator between us. As you look at our competitors and they're suffering far more airport and handling cost inflation, although a lot of that is a byproduct, the fact that they're no longer growing with, for example, appears to be growing, but all the growth is taking place in the Middle East. It's not taking place in Europe. In fact, they're in retreat. And the ownership and maintenance cost, the aircraft deals we did during COVID and the aircraft, the new 300 aircraft order, particularly where our competitors will be taking delivery of much more expensive Airbus aircraft will -- and having to use financing expenses by debt to fund those orders, will materially widen that gap between us and them.

機場和處理將繼續成為我們之間的巨大區別。當你看看我們的競爭對手時，他們正在遭受更多的機場和處理成本通脹，儘管其中很多是副產品，但事實上他們不再增長，例如，似乎正在增長，但所有增長正在中東發生。它不會發生在歐洲。事實上，他們正在撤退。以及所有權和維護成本，我們在 COVID 和飛機期間所做的飛機交易，新的 300 架飛機訂單，特別是在我們的競爭對手將交付更昂貴的空中客車飛機的情況下——並且不得不通過債務使用融資費用來為這些訂單提供資金，將大大擴大我們與他們之間的差距。

And then the kicker on all of this is we're still adding in new aircraft with 110 more Gamechangers, where the performance of the operating -- cost performance of these aircraft is stellar. 4% more seats, but the fuel saving is slightly more than 16%. And we're moving to a fleet of MAX-10 where we'll be carrying 20% more passengers, but burning 20% less fuel.

然後所有這一切的關鍵是我們仍在增加新飛機，增加 110 架 Gamechangers，這些飛機的運營性能 - 成本性能是一流的。座位增加 4%，但節油略多於 16%。我們正在轉向 MAX-10 機隊，我們將搭載 20% 以上的乘客，但燃燒的燃料減少 20%。

It's staggering, not just cost efficiencies, but staggering environmental gains as well. And we are continuing to see a rising demand from the customers across Europe for greener travel. The way to your greener travel is just switch and fly Ryanair. It's the easy headlines across the media, Ryanair is Europe's biggest polluter. What they should remember is that the 185 million passengers we carry this year are reducing their environmental footprint by 50% by transferring off a high-fare legacy competitors who have older aircraft, much lower load factors, less fleet density. So the good news is that Ryanair is Europe's biggest airline, and we are reducing the environmental footprint by 50%.

這是驚人的，不僅是成本效率，還有驚人的環境收益。我們繼續看到歐洲客戶對更環保旅行的需求不斷增長。更環保的旅行方式就是換乘瑞安航空。這是媒體的頭條新聞，瑞安航空是歐洲最大的污染者。他們應該記住的是，我們今年運載的 1.85 億乘客通過轉移高票價的傳統競爭對手，將他們的環境足跡減少了 50%，這些競爭對手擁有更老的飛機、更低的載客率和更低的機隊密度。好消息是瑞安航空是歐洲最大的航空公司，我們正在將環境足跡減少 50%。

The next question comes from Savanthi Syth from Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Savanthi Syth。

Just following up on Jamie's question a little bit. Just wondering, the nonfuel cost, you were expecting it to be down and now kind of expecting it to be up. Just is that all MAX delivery delays? And also, you usually don't take MAX during July, August and if that's having an impact on that as well.

只是跟進一下 Jamie 的問題。只是想知道，非燃料成本，你原以為它會下降，現在有點期待它會上升。這就是所有 MAX 交貨延遲嗎？而且，您通常不會在 7 月、8 月期間服用 MAX，如果這也有影響的話。

And then for my second question, I was wondering if you could share what you're seeing on the business travel demand front, particularly if you're seeing any benefits from the Amadeus kind of agreement or if it's too soon for that?

然後是我的第二個問題，我想知道您是否可以分享您在商務旅行需求方面看到的情況，特別是您是否從 Amadeus 協議中看到任何好處，或者是否為時過早？

Yes. The MAX delivery delays, I would be a little more optimistic. I think Boeing have it down too. The delays are really running in terms of weeks rather than months. The critical thing for us, particularly for the summer of 2023 was can we get all 51 aircraft in by the end of May? Then could we get them all in by the end of June? We're now reasonably confident we'll have them all by the end of July.

是的。 MAX 交貨延遲，我會更樂觀一點。我認為波音公司也有它。延遲實際上是數周而不是數月。對我們來說，尤其是 2023 年夏天，關鍵是我們能否在 5 月底之前將所有 51 架飛機全部交付？那麼我們能否在 6 月底之前將它們全部納入？我們現在有理由相信，我們將在 7 月底之前完成所有這些工作。

Now we have had to take out some capacity in June and July. We think it will cost us about 800,000 seats over the May, June, July period. We will have most of the -- all the aircraft in for the August, September peak. So I wouldn't get too caught in MAX delivery delays. We've already and we're working through with Boeing, the delivery for next winter for the summer of 2024. And it looks at this point in time. Now absent a curveball that come on a left field such as the fastener issue, we will have all those aircraft in by probably the end of May.

現在我們不得不在 6 月和 7 月取消一些產能。我們認為在 5 月、6 月和 7 月期間，我們將花費大約 800,000 個席位。我們將擁有大部分 - 所有飛機都將在 8 月、9 月高峰期使用。這樣我就不會陷入 MAX 交貨延遲的困境。我們已經並且正在與波音公司合作，為 2024 年夏季交付下一個冬季。它著眼於這個時間點。現在沒有像緊固件問題這樣的左場曲線球，我們可能會在 5 月底之前將所有這些飛機都裝好。

So there might be some slippage into June but have them all there, we have -- the fleet will expand by another 50-odd aircraft for the summer of 2024, allowing us to grow against 185 million passengers in FY '24 to breaking 200 million passengers in FY '25 again, in a market across Europe where capacity is constrained and I'll keep coming back to that enormous opportunity for Ryanair and our shareholders in this.

因此，到 6 月可能會有一些延誤，但它們都在那裡，我們已經 - 機隊將在 2024 年夏季再增加 50 多架飛機，使我們能夠在 24 財年從 1.85 億乘客增長到突破 2 億再次出現在 25 財年的乘客，在歐洲市場容量受到限制，我將繼續為瑞安航空和我們的股東提供巨大的機會。

Business travel, we've seen a huge surge in business travel over the last year. Post COVID, there seems to be a -- not just a desire for people to go back to the beaches, but business is going back to work. Again, people were locked up working from home for a 2-year period. We see a lot of demand into countries into Eastern Europe, Poland, Morocco. A lot of focus on businesses, smaller businesses, fixing supply chain, switching supply chains away from Asia, China, which are now unreliable and repairing their supply chains or relocating their supply chains closer to Europe and close to home. And Ryanair is the airline that is the offer -- in many cases, we're the only airline operating into many of these regional destinations. So strong business travel.

商務旅行，我們看到去年商務旅行的激增。發布 COVID 後，似乎不僅希望人們回到海灘，而且企業正在恢復工作。同樣，人們被關在家里工作了 2 年。我們看到對東歐、波蘭、摩洛哥等國家的大量需求。很多人關注企業、小型企業、修復供應鏈、將供應鏈從亞洲、中國轉移出去，這些現在不可靠，並修復他們的供應鍊或將他們的供應鏈遷移到更靠近歐洲和離家近的地方。瑞安航空是提供這些服務的航空公司——在許多情況下，我們是唯一一家運營這些區域性目的地的航空公司。如此強大的商旅。

I think because we had delivered such exceptional recovery last summer, we had exceptional on-time performance, exceptional feedback metrics, but many of our competitors were struggling with -- to recruit and train people post-COVID. As I've long tried to espouse on short-haul European, premium traffic is over. No one will pay for business class on short haul intra-European as they don't cross North America either. People just want an efficient, affordable on-time service. I look to -- where I see some future growth -- Germany is a very interesting market at the moment. We reduced our capacity in Germany in the last 12 months. We're still the second largest airline operator in Germany. But because the airports have been increasing fees, we switched capacity out of Germany.

我認為，因為我們去年夏天實現瞭如此出色的恢復，我們的準時表現非常出色，反饋指標也非常出色，但我們的許多競爭對手都在努力招聘和培訓 COVID 後的人員。正如我長期以來一直試圖支持短途歐洲，優質交通已經結束。沒有人願意為短途歐洲內部航班支付商務艙費用，因為它們也不穿越北美。人們只想要高效、負擔得起的準時服務。我期待 - 我看到一些未來的增長 - 德國目前是一個非常有趣的市場。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們減少了在德國的產能。我們仍然是德國第二大航空公司。但由於機場一直在增加費用，我們將運力轉移到了德國。

The Germans now are beginning to realize the error of the -- backing Lufthansa as the National Champion. Lufthansa have deliberately not returned their pre-COVID capacity. They're only operating about 80% of the German market. Airfares have more than doubled in the last 12 months. German businesses and consumers are going to be the victim of monopolistic pricing by Lufthansa in the German market. The German airports will suffer -- will be unable to recover their pre-COVID traffic volumes, obviously, other than the two big hubs of Frankfurt and Munich. And I think German airports will become much more competitive in the next 12, 24 months when they realize they're all getting screwed by Lufthansa. They want somebody to come in there and provide competition choice and a much lower alternative for business and leisure travel, and I suspect that will be Ryanair.

德國人現在開始意識到支持漢莎航空作為全國冠軍的錯誤。漢莎航空故意不恢復他們在 COVID 之前的運力。他們只經營著大約 80% 的德國市場。在過去的 12 個月裡，機票價格翻了一番多。德國企業和消費者將成為漢莎航空在德國市場壟斷定價的受害者。除了法蘭克福和慕尼黑這兩個大樞紐，德國機場將受到影響——顯然無法恢復 COVID 前的交通量。我認為德國機場在未來 12、24 個月內將變得更具競爭力，因為他們意識到他們都被漢莎航空搞砸了。他們希望有人進來並提供競爭選擇以及商務和休閒旅行的低得多的選擇，我懷疑這將是瑞安航空。

Eddie, anything you want to add on business travel?

Eddie，關於商務旅行，你有什麼想補充的嗎？

Yes. Just in relation to the specific query on Amadeus, I mean it's too soon to say, but we are -- in terms of any sort of volume, we only launched it last week. What I mean it is encouraging and it's interesting that you call it the German market. I mean even in place like Nuremberg where we have a relatively small base, two aircraft base, large employers around there, the Pumas, Adidases, SAP, et cetera. We want to get access to direct connections and their only alternative is to get on the train or to drive to Frankfurt. And we have seen that in Germany where people want to get access to travel. They have a lot of intermediaries with travel management companies that manage their expenses and Amadeus will allow them to segue into that.

是的。就關於 Amadeus 的具體查詢而言，我的意思是現在說還為時過早，但我們 - 就任何類型的數量而言，我們上週才推出它。我的意思是令人鼓舞，有趣的是你稱之為德國市場。我的意思是即使在像紐倫堡這樣的地方，我們也有一個相對較小的基地，兩個飛機基地，周圍有大型雇主，如 Pumas、Adidases、SAP 等。我們想要直接連接，他們唯一的選擇是坐火車或開車去法蘭克福。我們已經在德國看到了人們希望獲得旅行的機會。他們與差旅管理公司有很多中介機構來管理他們的費用，Amadeus 將允許他們進入這一點。

So I think the -- I mean, one of the areas that you didn't call out there was [northern] Italy, where we see a surge in business traffic, particularly from small and medium-sized businesses there. So we're very encouraged. I think this channel will work for us. People want to get access to our lowest fares but find it more difficult to do it directly through ryanair.com when they've got the gap of travel management system to manage expenses and Amadeus will deliver that for us.

所以我認為 - 我的意思是，你沒有提到的地區之一是 [北部] 意大利，我們看到那裡的商業流量激增，特別是來自那裡的中小型企業。所以我們很受鼓舞。我認為這個渠道對我們有用。人們希望獲得我們的最低票價，但發現直接通過 ryanair.com 更難做到這一點，因為他們在差旅管理系統上有差距來管理費用，而 Amadeus 將為我們提供。

We expect Amadeus volumes will remain reasonably small. Like obviously, overwhelmingly will take all the bookings to the Ryanair.com platform, but a lot of businesses have the internal or travel implants, and that need GPS like an Amadeus.

我們預計 Amadeus 的交易量將保持在相當小的水平。很明顯，絕大多數人會將所有預訂帶到 Ryanair.com 平台，但許多企業都有內部或旅行植入物，並且需要像 Amadeus 一樣的 GPS。

The next question comes from Alex Irving from Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Alex Irving。

Two from me, please. First, on cash returns. So you've got a net cash balance sheet, CapEx and debt maturity that look fundable out of ongoing operations. What would you want to see before taking the decision to restart the buyback or to implement dividend?

請給我兩份。首先，關於現金回報。所以你有一個淨現金資產負債表、資本支出和債務期限，看起來可以從持續運營中獲得資金。在決定重啟回購或實施股息之前，你希望看到什麼？

Second question around M&A. So a couple of deals coming in Europe (inaudible) clearly not going to be appealing to you. But how significant do you think growth opportunities could be for potential antitrust remedies? And how many planes might you want to allocate from the opportunities arising here?

關於併購的第二個問題。因此，歐洲的一些交易（聽不清）顯然不會吸引你。但您認為潛在的反壟斷補救措施的增長機會有多重要？你想從這裡出現的機會中分配多少架飛機？

Okay. Thanks, Alex. Again, good question. I think we should be cautious. We finished the year with EUR 500 million of net cash. But as Neil has said, EUR 400 million of that was Boeing delivery delays. I think what we've tried to set out, we do expect to generate significant cash flows over the next 2 or 3 years, if profitability -- if there's no curve balls, we don't get any more COVID or Ukraine wars. But we have a sequence of what we want to do.

好的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。再次，好問題。我認為我們應該謹慎。我們以 5 億歐元的淨現金結束了這一年。但正如尼爾所說，其中 4 億歐元是波音公司的交付延誤。我認為我們試圖闡明的是，我們確實希望在未來 2 或 3 年內產生可觀的現金流，如果盈利——如果沒有曲線球，我們就不會再發生 COVID 或烏克蘭戰爭。但是我們有一系列我們想做的事情。

The first challenge was pay restoration. We brought forward the pay restoration, which was originally agreed over a 2-year period -- over -- it was originally done over medium-term period out to 2025. We brought it all forward to December 2022 because we saw it coming. So pay restoration is critical. Funding -- and these are expensive pay increases we've already agreed with pilots and cabin crew over the next 4 years. When we're operating with higher -- with increased crewing ratios, these built-in pay increases will be expensive or need to be managed.

第一個挑戰是薪酬恢復。我們將原定於 2 年期限內達成的薪酬恢復提前 - 結束 - 最初是在 2025 年中期完成的。我們將其全部提前至 2022 年 12 月，因為我們看到了它的到來。因此，薪酬恢復至關重要。資金——這些是昂貴的加薪，我們已經與飛行員和機組人員在未來 4 年內達成一致。當我們以更高的水平運營時 - 隨著船員比例的增加，這些內置的加薪將是昂貴的或需要管理。

Secondly, is debt repayment. We've repaid an EUR 850 million bond in March as it fell due. We have another EUR 700 million bond repayment coming in August. So we have a very large burden of debt repayment. We then have two further bonds to be repaid in August 2025 and March, I think, of 2026 or something like that. I might get those dates (inaudible) they're in the numbers. So debt repayment, we pay down debt when interest rates are rising from 0, 1% towards medium term, 5%, 6%. And for risk industries like the airline industry. So with the recent bond being done by the lessors are at 8% to 9% per annum.

其次，是還債。我們在 3 月份償還了 8.5 億歐元到期的債券。 8 月份我們還有 7 億歐元的債券償還。所以我們有非常大的債務償還負擔。然後我們還有兩筆債券要在 2025 年 8 月和 2026 年 3 月或類似時間償還。我可能會得到那些日期（聽不清），它們在數字中。所以償還債務，當利率從 0%、1% 上升到中期、5%、6% 時，我們會償還債務。以及航空業等風險行業。因此，出租人最近發行的債券的年利率為 8% 至 9%。

Then we have a huge CapEx challenge. I mean we are spending $2 billion -- or EUR 2 billion a year net on aircraft, and that will continue for the next 2.5 years. We take a funding gap for a year in 2026 before we start into the MAX-10 orders. And so if you take that statement, I think it's pay restoration and pay increases for our people first. Debt repayments -- aggressive debt repayments, we want to get to 0 net debt by 2025. Capital expenditure, and we have ambitious CapEx challenges. And I'm afraid, and I say this as one of the largest shareholders, the shareholders will just have to wait in line.

然後我們面臨著巨大的資本支出挑戰。我的意思是我們每年在飛機上花費 20 億美元——或 20 億歐元，而且這種情況將持續 2.5 年。在我們開始 MAX-10 訂單之前，我們在 2026 年有一年的資金缺口。因此，如果您接受該聲明，我認為首先是為我們的員工恢復和增加工資。債務償還——積極的債務償還，我們希望到 2025 年達到零淨債務。資本支出，我們面臨著雄心勃勃的資本支出挑戰。恐怕，作為最大的股東之一，我這麼說，股東們只需要排隊等候。

We need to be cautious and careful, and I think our shareholders understand that. We are conscious of the fact that shareholders owns up EUR 400 million in additional equity during COVID. We do want to return some of that cash to shareholders assumes it's safe to do so and that we generate some meaningful net cash. And I think it remains our business objective that when we have surplus net cash, we will return that to the shareholders.

我們需要謹慎小心，我認為我們的股東明白這一點。我們意識到，在 COVID 期間，股東擁有 4 億歐元的額外股權。我們確實希望將部分現金返還給股東，前提是這樣做是安全的，並且我們會產生一些有意義的淨現金。我認為我們的業務目標仍然是當我們有盈餘淨現金時，我們會將其返還給股東。

I don't foresee there being an opportunity to do big share buybacks anymore. But I think a modest and reasonable dividend program sometime over the next year or 2 if the net cash balances allow that, that would be fair and reasonable. The people who stood by us during COVID, the people who put their hands in their pockets and helped us during COVID with additional equity and additional debt should see some modest return on that investment.

我預計不會再有機會進行大量股票回購。但我認為，如果淨現金餘額允許的話，明年某個時候或兩年內適度合理的股息計劃將是公平合理的。在 COVID 期間支持我們的人，在 COVID 期間用額外的股權和額外的債務幫助我們的人應該會看到一些適度的投資回報。

M&A, I think, will be an opportunity for us for growth for the next couple of years, as we strongly encourage. And I think it's logical that Europe continues to consolidate. There's been a lot of consolidation during COVID and as a result of COVID. And what we're seeing post-COVID is the emergence of four very large airline or airline groups in Europe Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, IAG and Ryanair.

正如我們強烈鼓勵的那樣，我認為併購將成為我們未來幾年增長的機會。我認為歐洲繼續鞏固是合乎邏輯的。在 COVID 期間和 COVID 的結果中進行了很多整合。我們在 COVID 之後看到的是在歐洲出現了四家非常大的航空公司或航空公司集團漢莎航空、法航荷航集團、IAG 和瑞安航空。

I don't believe in the next 4 or 5 years there will be room for any significant swift to airline. Those that cannot grow will either perish or have to find a way into the M&A space. But -- and I think there will be further slot divestments. But slot divestments that big airports, busy airports, they're interesting to us, but they're not going to allow us to do to allocate 50 aircraft a year. We would expect to be involved in the IAG acquired Air Europa in Madrid and Barcelona. I think there would be slot divestments there. I think that many of the incumbents, a bit like TAP in Lisbon are desperately trying to find a way to give their slot to some other high-cost airlines like easyJet or it might be Volotea in Madrid. But I think the airports increasingly recognize that with Ryanair, you get kind of guaranteed growth.

我不相信在接下來的 4 或 5 年內會有任何重要的快速發展空間。那些不能成長的企業要么滅亡，要么必須找到進入併購領域的途徑。但是——我認為還會有更多的插槽撤資。但是大型機場、繁忙機場的撤資對我們來說很有趣，但他們不會允許我們每年分配 50 架飛機。我們期望參與 IAG 在馬德里和巴塞羅那收購歐洲航空公司。我認為那裡會有插槽撤資。我認為許多現任者，有點像里斯本的 TAP，都在拼命想辦法把自己的位置讓給其他一些高成本航空公司，比如 easyJet 或者可能是馬德里的 Volotea。但我認為機場越來越認識到瑞安航空可以保證增長。

We feel our -- you get very efficient operations. We arrived there with bigger aircraft with 93% and 94% load factors. So I think the airports are very keen to see us take up some of those slot divestments. But slot divestitures and M&A remedies will not be the kind of the driver of our growth to 225 million passengers -- or 300 million passengers in the next 10 years. We are going to continue to allocate aircraft in large numbers to the Italian market, the Spanish market as we have in the last 2 years. We're allocating a lot of aircraft in the U.K. market there, particularly on U.K. domestics where, again, the government has [enlightenedly] reduced APD on domestics by 50%. We've owned up a base in Belfast. We're adding capacity in Glasgow, Edinburgh.

我們覺得我們的 - 你會得到非常有效的運營。我們乘坐更大的飛機抵達那裡，載客率分別為 93% 和 94%。所以我認為機場非常希望看到我們接受其中一些航班撤資。但是，航班時刻剝離和併購補救措施不會成為我們增長到 2.25 億乘客——或未來 10 年 3 億乘客的驅動力。我們將繼續像過去 2 年一樣，將大量飛機分配給意大利市場和西班牙市場。我們在英國市場分配了大量飛機，尤其是英國國內飛機，政府再次[明智地]將國內飛機的 APD 減少了 50%。我們在貝爾法斯特擁有一個基地。我們正在增加愛丁堡格拉斯哥的容量。

So -- and I go back to the same point, there's not much growth, I think, out there for airlines whose average airfare here in Europe is sort of EUR 150 or EUR 200. But if your average airfare in Europe is EUR 40 and your average cost is EUR 30, there's a lot of growth. Some of it will be market share capture. Some that will be continuing to grow the overall marketplace. And so we are very, I think, excited and very ambitious with the growth prospects for the next decade, and that is underpinned by the 110 additional Gamechanger deliveries over the next 2.5 years and then the 300 MAX-10 order.

所以——我回到同樣的觀點，我認為，對於歐洲平均票價為 150 歐元或 200 歐元的航空公司來說，增長不大。但是如果你在歐洲的平均票價是 40 歐元，並且你的平均成本是 30 歐元，增長幅度很大。其中一些將用於佔領市場份額。一些將繼續發展整個市場。因此，我認為，我們對未來十年的增長前景感到非常興奮和雄心勃勃，這得益於未來 2.5 年內額外交付 110 台 Gamechanger 以及隨後的 300 台 MAX-10 訂單。

Eddie or Neil, you want to add anything on the M&A? Or Neil on balance sheet?

Eddie 或 Neil，您想對併購添加任何內容嗎？還是資產負債表上的尼爾？

I think on the cash returns, you covered it off well. With EUR 2.6 billion to EUR 2.7 billion more to CapEx in the current financial year, and we've got a big draw on debt to be paid down. So for the next 12 months, anyhow, the cash is well spoken for. M&A, again, there will be some room for us to play where there are remedies but equally, we'll continue just pushing capacity into core markets. And Eddie, probably add a bit more color to me.

我認為在現金回報方面，你很好地掩蓋了它。在本財政年度，資本支出增加了 26 億至 27 億歐元，我們需要償還大量債務。因此，無論如何，在接下來的 12 個月裡，現金是值得的。併購，同樣，我們將在有補救措施的地方發揮一些空間，但同樣，我們將繼續將產能推向核心市場。還有 Eddie，可能會為我添加更多色彩。

Yes. I mean I just call it like what you said there about IAG. I mean, like a lot of the domestic routes with -- if that went ahead whether Europa in some cases, they'll have 100%, certainly 90% in a lot of those domestic routes. So we probably see more widespread divestments at Spanish airports, which will be welcomed. I mean I think that's the only near-term M&A that would crystallize into divestments for us. So we would welcome those and particularly with the cost break on cost in Spain for the next 4 years.

是的。我的意思是我只是像你在那裡所說的關於 IAG 的那樣稱呼它。我的意思是，就像很多國內航線一樣 - 如果在某些情況下歐羅巴繼續前進，他們將擁有 100%，當然在很多國內航線中有 90%。因此，我們可能會在西班牙機場看到更廣泛的撤資，這將受到歡迎。我的意思是，我認為這是唯一會具體化為我們撤資的近期併購。因此，我們歡迎這些，特別是在未來 4 年西班牙的成本減免。

Yes. Okay. Just because the bond repayment date. So we have a EUR 750 million bonds to pay in August '23, EUR 850 million bonds in September of '25 and then a EUR 1.2 billion bond we raised during COVID is due for repayment in May '26. So retail is about almost just under EUR 3 billion in debt to repay over the next 3 years. So we are -- there are still significant funding challenges ahead of us. But no, we're confident we can deal with them. But that's why I say the shareholders will have to wait. And I think our shareholders understand that.

是的。好的。只是因為債券還款日期。因此，我們有 7.5 億歐元的債券要在 23 年 8 月支付，8.5 億歐元的債券要在 25 年的 9 月支付，然後我們在 COVID 期間籌集的 12 億歐元債券將在 26 年 5 月償還。因此，零售業需要在未來 3 年內償還近 30 億歐元的債務。所以我們 - 我們仍然面臨著重大的資金挑戰。但是不，我們有信心可以對付他們。但這就是為什麼我說股東將不得不等待。我認為我們的股東明白這一點。

The next question comes from Muneeba Kayani from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Muneeba Kayani。

So you were mentioning kind of Asian demand being positive for the short haul this summer. I just wanted to get a sense of what you've seen so far on Asian demand, and you see it coming through in your bookings at this point? And have you seen basically a change in booking patterns this year compared to kind of pre-COVID in terms of the booking window?

所以你提到亞洲需求對今年夏天的短途航班來說是積極的。我只是想了解一下您到目前為止對亞洲需求的了解，您現在看到它在您的預訂中出現了嗎？與 COVID 之前的預訂窗口相比，今年的預訂模式是否發生了根本性的變化？

And then secondly, Michael, your contract ends in 2028. The MAX-10 deliveries go on, well, beyond that. How should we be thinking about you staying on?

其次，邁克爾，你的合同到 2028 年結束。MAX-10 的交付還在繼續，好吧，不止於此。我們應該如何考慮你留下來？

Thanks, Muneeba. I think I might ask Jason McGuinness to comment on the booking pattern, Jason. But just on the Asian demand. We see -- I think what's Europe, there is unusually strong demand this year. I mean it is very difficult to get a hotel room or a golf course booking anywhere in Europe this summer with the number of Americans who are over here. The dollar has been strong now for over a year. Forward traffic, I mean, as someone who got scalped on a transatlantic airfare yesterday from Lisbon to New York, the strength of transatlantic business is astonishing. And Europe -- the strength of the dollar means that people are and there is going to be an invasion of Americans across Europe all summer long.

謝謝，穆尼巴。 Jason，我想我可以請 Jason McGuinness 對預訂模式發表評論。但只是根據亞洲的需求。我們看到 - 我認為歐洲是什麼，今年的需求異常強勁。我的意思是今年夏天在歐洲的任何地方都很難預訂酒店房間或高爾夫球場，因為這裡有很多美國人。美元在一年多的時間裡一直堅挺。前向交通，我的意思是，作為昨天從里斯本到紐約的跨大西洋機票被剝頭皮的人，跨大西洋業務的實力是驚人的。而歐洲——美元的強勢意味著整個夏天人們正在並將美國人入侵整個歐洲。

We had no Asian traffic across Europe for the last 2 years, 3 years. I don't -- we don't -- we carry a significant number of Asian. But for us, I think the real driver of the Asian traffic recovery is the transfer traffic on to short-haul legacy carriers. They fill up an awful lot of the short haul of Lufthansa, Air France, IAG and other. I think [Carsten] was previously quoted and said, upwards of 50% of their short-haul travel across Europe for the summer is long-haul transfers. And I think that's what is translating to there is that actually, it further constrains the available capacity in a marketplace where short-haul Europe is somewhere be operating at 90%, 95% capacity, extraordinary transatlantic transfer demand.

在過去的 2 年、3 年裡，我們在歐洲沒有亞洲交通。我不——我們不——我們有大量的亞洲人。但對我們來說，我認為亞洲交通恢復的真正驅動力是將交通轉移到短途傳統航空公司。他們佔據了漢莎航空、法國航空、IAG 和其他航空公司的大量短途航班。我認為 [Carsten] 之前曾被引用並說過，他們夏季穿越歐洲的短途旅行中有 50% 以上是長途中轉。我認為這實際上意味著，它進一步限制了市場上的可用容量，在該市場中，歐洲短途航線的運營能力達到 90%、95%，以及跨大西洋的超常轉機需求。

You have a beginning of a medium-term recovery in Asia and filling up the short-haul capacity of our competitors, which leaves less seats for the, if you like, the European consumers who are turning to Ryanair because we are the ones offering not just the lowest fares, new aircraft, fuel-efficient aircraft, but also we're the ones adding significant demand. in a marketplace that's operating at 90%, 95% pre-COVID capacity this summer, Ryanair is operating at 125% of capacity, and we're capturing large amount of market share.

亞洲開始中期復蘇，填補了我們競爭對手的短途運力，如果你願意的話，這給歐洲消費者留下了更少的座位，他們正在轉向瑞安航空，因為我們提供的不是只是最低票價、新飛機、省油飛機，但我們也是增加大量需求的人。今年夏天，在一個以 90%、95% 的 COVID 前運力運營的市場中，瑞安航空以 125% 的運力運營，我們正在奪取大量市場份額。

Jason, maybe just give us your thoughts on the booking patterns this summer over last -- or this summer against pre-COVID. And then we are going to deal with my contract in 2028.

傑森，也許只是告訴我們你對今年夏天與去年相比的預訂模式的想法——或者今年夏天對 COVID 之前的預訂模式。然後我們將在 2028 年處理我的合同。

Yes. Just on bookings. As you said earlier, bookings are strong at the moment for the summer. We're not quite back to pre-COVID -- the booking curve isn't fully recovered. But it's -- so bookings are still happening closer to the date, but it's certainly trending more towards what it was in summer '19.

是的。只是在預訂。正如您之前所說，目前夏季的預訂量很大。我們還沒有完全回到 COVID 之前——預訂曲線還沒有完全恢復。但它是 - 所以預訂仍在接近日期發生，但它肯定更傾向於 19 年夏季的情況。

It varies across -- we have 47 different market segments across Europe, and it varies across them, but leisure is booking almost as it was pre-COVID. Some of your domestic and ethnic routes will be closing -- closer to the date. So that's why we're just a little bit cautious when we're giving our fares guidance out across the summer, particularly into Q2. Although bookings are strong, it's still happening closer to the travel date. But I'm very comfortable in terms of the rate that's happening at the moment, very comfortable with load factors, less in terms of our April load factor when we announced May and when we look into the peak as well, load factors are very strong, but they are happening just a little bit closer to the travel date, but very long in general.

它因人而異——我們在歐洲有 47 個不同的細分市場，它們各不相同，但休閒預訂幾乎與 COVID 之前一樣。你的一些國內和種族路線將關閉——接近日期。因此，這就是為什麼我們在整個夏季（尤其是第二季度）提供票價指導時會有點謹慎。儘管預訂量很大，但仍然接近旅行日期。但我對目前發生的速度感到非常滿意，對載客率非常滿意，當我們宣布 5 月時我們的 4 月載客率較低，當我們查看峰值時，載客率非常強勁, 但它們發生在距離旅行日期稍近一點的地方，但通常時間很長。

And maybe just to finish briefly, thank you for your concern for my contract in 2028. But I would -- actually, it's 5 years away. Nobody is thinking about it. Firstly, it's a matter for the Board when we get to 2027 or 2028, whether the Board wants me to stay on after that period of time. I don't think it's all that important one way or the other. I think this business is no longer heavily dependent on me.

也許只是簡單地結束，感謝您對我 2028 年合同的關注。但我會——實際上，還有 5 年的時間。沒有人在考慮它。首先，到 2027 年或 2028 年時，董事會是否希望我在那段時間之後繼續留任是董事會的事情。我認為無論哪種方式都沒有那麼重要。我認為這項業務不再嚴重依賴我。

I think particularly where we have a decade of aircraft deliveries that now run us out into the mid-2030s. And we have done a lot of really good work in the last, I think, during COVID and post COVID on succession planning. We now have five airlines in the group. We are growing individual airline CEOs. We have multiple Ops Directors, Multiple commercial Directors, very good and strong financial -- the CFOs across the group. So we have a kind of a training ground. And we have a very strong pipeline of management sufficient, not just for me, but for every other senior management within the group.

我認為特別是在我們有十年的飛機交付時間，現在已經到了 2030 年代中期。我認為，在 COVID 期間和 COVID 之後的繼任計劃中，我們做了很多非常好的工作。我們集團現在有五家航空公司。我們正在培養個別航空公司的首席執行官。我們有多名運營總監、多名商業總監、非常優秀和強大的財務——整個集團的首席財務官。所以我們有一種訓練場。我們擁有非常強大的管理渠道，不僅對我而言，而且對集團內的所有其他高級管理人員來說都是如此。

But really our focus, I think, as a group now -- and I keep trying to urge everybody, there was the early days I used to make all the decisions in Ryanair. And increasingly, I make very few decisions in Ryanair because there's so many. It's such a big operation. I think the strength of the management team in Ryanair has been demonstrated to an extraordinary -- and by the way, we came through COVID. We've managed our way through COVID, I would say, spectacularly well. We were the only airline that was ready for the post-COVID recovery. We were the only airline across Europe that has emerged out of COVID with the same cost base as we had going into COVID. And you look at -- we have a pipeline of aircraft deliveries now that allows us to grow from 149 million passengers pre-COVID to 225 million passengers in 2026 and now 300 million passengers in 2033 or 2034.

但我認為，作為一個團隊，我們現在真正關注的是——我一直在努力敦促每個人，在瑞安航空的早期，我曾做出所有決定。而且越來越多，我在瑞安航空做的決定很少，因為有太多了。這麼大的手術我認為 Ryanair 管理團隊的實力已經得到了非凡的證明——順便說一句，我們經歷了 COVID。我想說，我們已經成功度過了 COVID，非常好。我們是唯一一家為 COVID 後恢復做好準備的航空公司。我們是整個歐洲唯一一家擺脫 COVID 且成本基礎與我們進入 COVID 時相同的航空公司。你看——我們現在有一系列飛機交付，這使我們能夠從 COVID 之前的 1.49 億乘客增加到 2026 年的 2.25 億乘客，到 2033 年或 2034 年增加到現在的 3 億乘客。

And much as I would like to believe that is all due to my innate genius, I'm afraid it's not. We just have a very good management team. And so increasingly, whether the Board wants me to extend my contract in 2028 is -- or not is frankly immaterial. There's a really good management team in Ryanair taking this business forward. And we will be -- I think everybody is excited by the opportunity of executing this plan to grow to 300 million passengers by 2034.

儘管我願意相信這完全是由於我與生俱來的天才，但恐怕不是。我們只有一個非常優秀的管理團隊。坦率地說，董事會是否希望我在 2028 年延長合同已經越來越不重要了。瑞安航空有一個非常優秀的管理團隊來推動這項業務向前發展。我們將 - 我認為每個人都對執行到 2034 年增加到 3 億乘客的計劃感到興奮。

Remember, the next largest airline in Europe at the moment is Lufthansa at about 100 million passengers. And yes, they will engage in M&A, but we will certainly, I think, capture about 1/3 of the entire market for short-haul air travel across Europe. And that is good because if Ryanair doesn't capture 1/3 of the market in the next 10 years, Lufthansa, Air France, KLM, IAG, are going to screw everybody for ridiculously high airfares. We will be the airline keeping them all honest, we'll be the airline offering lower fares, we'll be the airline delivering growth to airports, we'll be the airline delivering growth in not just traffic but also jobs in the regions of Europe.

請記住，目前歐洲第二大航空公司是漢莎航空公司，擁有約 1 億乘客。是的，他們會進行併購，但我認為我們肯定會佔領整個歐洲短途航空旅行市場的大約 1/3。這很好，因為如果瑞安航空在未來 10 年內不能佔領 1/3 的市場份額，漢莎航空、法航、荷蘭皇家航空、IAG 將以高得離譜的機票價格來欺騙所有人。我們將成為一家誠實守信的航空公司，我們將成為一家提供更低票價的航空公司，我們將成為一家為機場帶來增長的航空公司，我們將成為一家不僅在交通量上而且在該地區帶來就業增長的航空公司歐洲。

And so I think we're headed for a very exciting 5 years or 10 years, and it doesn't really matter whether I'm there after 2028. There's a really good management team. And we're -- and not just the senior team, but also the middle management team coming through as well. And you'll all get the opportunity to meet them over the next week as we're banging them all out on road shows, if you ask them what they think of my contract in 2028. I'd say mostly they will [yawn] about it.

所以我認為我們將迎來非常激動人心的 5 年或 10 年，2028 年後我是否在那裡並不重要。有一個非常好的管理團隊。而且我們 - 不僅是高級團隊，還有中層管理團隊。如果你問他們對我 2028 年的合同有何看法，下週你們都有機會與他們見面，因為我們將在路演中全力以赴。我會說他們大多會 [打哈欠]關於它。

The next question comes from Stephen Furlong from Davy.

下一個問題來自 Davy 的 Stephen Furlong。

Yes. Just on the winter profitability, just more kind of generically, do you think that the business is a bit more -- obviously, it is a summer peak there, but I mean it changes in the network, maybe something for Eddie, whether it's more weekend travel changes in labor contracts that make it at least when you're adding the Q3 and Q4, it's not like a massive kind of a loss-making period because I think the seasonality to some extent.

是的。就冬季盈利能力而言，更一般地說，你是否認為業務更多一些 - 顯然，那裡是夏季高峰期，但我的意思是它改變了網絡，也許對 Eddie 來說，是否更多週末旅行改變了勞動合同，至少當你添加第三季度和第四季度時，這不像是一個巨大的虧損期，因為我認為在某種程度上是季節性的。

And the second one, maybe for Neil. Maybe just talk a bit more about the -- what happened there in terms of the conversion of the syndicated term loan. And that does help in the deliberations with S&P for the upgrade?

第二個，也許是給尼爾的。也許只是多談談 - 在銀團定期貸款的轉換方面發生了什麼。這是否有助於與標準普爾就升級進行審議？

Thanks, Stephen. Why don't we talk about winter schedules and profitability, maybe ask Eddie to take that and maybe Tracey McCann may comment on it as well. And then Neil, we used the loan story, please.

謝謝，斯蒂芬。為什麼我們不討論冬季時間表和盈利能力，也許請埃迪接受，也許特蕾西麥肯也可能對此發表評論。然後尼爾，我們使用了貸款故事。

Yes. We've been working over the last number of seasons on aircraft optimization or as we call it, our repacking the suit case in terms of getting better utilization out of the aircraft. And also within that, there is a sort of a pivot -- slight pivot away from midweek. Okay. We've got to do that within the constraints of the 5-4 roster analytics and a base network of over 90 bases. But yes, we are trying to fill out the weekends, and we've been more successful on that now in terms of how we've done that. We've sort of moved from a sort of a 65-35 split to about 70-30 now towards the weekends, which runs through from Thursday to Monday. So that has really helped.

是的。在過去的幾個賽季中，我們一直致力於飛機優化，或者我們稱之為重新包裝手提箱，以更好地利用飛機。並且在其中，有一種支點——從周中開始的輕微支點。好的。我們必須在 5-4 人名冊分析和 90 多個基地的基地網絡的限制下做到這一點。但是，是的，我們正在努力填補週末的空缺，而且就我們的做法而言，我們現在在這方面取得了更大的成功。我們已經從 65-35 的比例轉變為現在大約 70-30 的周末，從周四到週一。所以這真的很有幫助。

Also on a lot of city pairs, if you look back 10 years, where we weren't even daily on some of those major trunk routes where we've now got multiple frequencies and we continue to build them. And also the domestic networks in places like Italy and Spain, where we're continuing to grow, which are less seasonal covering long distances. So we are sort of hedging against that. We're working our way in, more frequencies, more domestic markets pivoting towards the weekend and strengthening up on city pairs. So it's working its way towards that.

同樣在很多城市對上，如果你回顧 10 年，我們甚至不是每天都在一些主要的干線路線上，我們現在有多個頻率，我們會繼續建造它們。還有意大利和西班牙等地的國內網絡，我們在這些地方繼續發展，覆蓋長距離的季節性較弱。所以我們有點對沖這種情況。我們正在努力，更多的頻率，更多的國內市場轉向周末並加強城市對。所以它正在朝著這個方向努力。

Tracey anything on answer.

特蕾西回答任何問題。

Yes. what Eddie said, the fact that we've pivoted away from it, we certainly helped on the yield and helped on the ancillary much stronger fare to be got at the weekend. And I thought it helped a little bit on cost in that it's allowed us no flying at some basis at the weekend, but it helps with staff costs, it helps with things like uploading and onboard sales (inaudible) below some bond probably closed midweek and some of the smaller bases. So yes, it definitely helped on both sides fare and costs.

是的。正如 Eddie 所說，我們已經偏離它的事實，我們當然有助於提高收益率，並有助於在周末獲得更強勁的輔助票價。而且我認為它對成本有一點幫助，因為它允許我們在周末的某些基礎上不能飛行，但它有助於降低員工成本，它有助於上傳和機上銷售（聽不清）等低於某些債券的事情可能會在周中關閉並且一些較小的基地。所以是的，它肯定對雙方的票價和成本都有幫助。

Good. Maybe we talk on the debt and the syndicated term loan, maybe Neil, Thorn might ask (inaudible) put pressure to come in as well at the end of Neil.

好的。也許我們談論債務和銀團定期貸款，也許是尼爾，索恩可能會要求（聽不清）在尼爾結束時也施加壓力。

John did all the heavy lifting on this. What I would say is that it was important to S&P, but more important was the 99% unencumbered balance sheet that we have and the strong liquidity within the group, and they did upgrade us last week to BBB+ but they like the fact that rather than having a term loan, which was going to mature next year, we've now termed that out to 2028, we will have flexibility to a revolving credit facility to pay that down or draw as needed. And they count that effectively as cash. And John did a great job getting the margin down significantly lower levels. So maybe, John, do you want to add a bit more color on that?

約翰在這方面做了所有繁重的工作。我要說的是，這對標準普爾很重要，但更重要的是我們擁有 99% 的未支配資產負債表和集團內部的強勁流動性，他們上週確實將我們升級為 BBB+，但他們喜歡這樣的事實，而不是有一筆將於明年到期的定期貸款，我們現在將其期限定為 2028 年，我們將可以靈活地使用循環信貸額度來支付或根據需要提取。他們有效地將其視為現金。約翰在將利潤率顯著降低到較低水平方面做得很好。那麼也許，約翰，你想在上面添加更多顏色嗎？

Yes. I think it also kind of ties into the message around the debt paydown on the basis of that. It was a year out the facility in terms of May '24, it was due to mature. And we've obviously extended that out for 5 years. So if you look at -- it's a good piece of work. And I think, look, we're help them for the support of our banking group funds.

是的。我認為這也與基於此的債務償還信息有關。就 24 年 5 月而言，該設施已滿一年，該設施即將成熟。我們顯然已經將其延長了 5 年。因此，如果您看一下 - 這是一項很好的工作。我認為，看，我們正在幫助他們支持我們的銀行集團基金。

Our next question comes from Mark Simpson from Goodbody.

我們的下一個問題來自 Goodbody 的 Mark Simpson。

Two questions, one for Neil. In terms of use of cash, obviously, significant inflows expected over the next couple of years. Is there an opportunity or potentially a benefit to accelerate PDP payments as we look into the, say, third year of forecasting?

兩個問題，一個給尼爾。在現金使用方面，很明顯，未來幾年預計會有大量資金流入。當我們研究第三年的預測時，是否有機會或潛在的好處來加速 PDP 支付？

And then a kind of broader issue, probably if Juliusz is online, kind of political competition issues. Two things there. Obviously, we've seen the ECJ ruling, which must be seen as a win with regards to Lufthansa SAS, then what the kind of ramifications of those rulings are? And equally, are there kind of move by the EU Commission in terms of open skies and competition to actually act on issues around ATC?

然後是一個更廣泛的問題，如果 Juliusz 在線的話，可能是政治競爭問題。那裡有兩件事。顯然，我們已經看到了 ECJ 的裁決，這必須被視為對 Lufthansa SAS 的勝利，那麼這些裁決的後果是什麼？同樣，歐盟委員會在開放天空和競爭方面是否採取了某種行動，以實際採取行動解決 ATC 周圍的問題？

Yes. So Mark, on PDPs and use of cash, we're getting to the stage now where we're more into delivery payments rather than PDP payments in relation to the remaining 110 Gamechangers. So accelerating them doesn't make a huge amount of sense. We don't really -- with the exception of having paid a signing deposit on the 300 MAX-10s, we don't get into PDP discussions or obligations this side of kind of the back end of 2026. So we can look at that state depending on where interest rates are, et cetera, on whether we accelerate some of that or not. But the working assumption is that as before, you pay up to 25% of your PDPs between '24 and 3 months of delivery of the aircraft with the balance on delivery.

是的。因此，馬克，關於 PDP 和現金的使用，我們現在正處於這樣一個階段，即與其餘 110 個 Gamechangers 相關的交付付款而不是 PDP 付款。因此，加速它們並沒有多大意義。我們真的沒有——除了支付了 300 MAX-10 的簽約押金外，我們不會在 2026 年後端的這一邊進行 PDP 討論或義務。所以我們可以看看狀態取決於利率在哪裡，等等，我們是否會加速其中的一些。但工作假設是，與以前一樣，您在交付飛機後的 24 至 3 個月內支付高達 25% 的 PDP，並在交付時支付餘額。

Okay. I'd add to that is just before Juliusz, obviously, the only issue that we do have outstanding there, but we have a number of years, we haven't yet hedged the dollar, euro on the new aircraft order. The first deliveries [aren't until] 2027. We have extraordinary exceptional hedge position on the -- all of the remainder of the Gamechanger delivery to $1.24 to the euro, which means that, again, it just underpins how exceptionally low-cost our aircraft additions will be kind of looking across our competitor space where they're adding aircraft and not dollar hedged and they're taking leases with significant cost inflation as interest rates rise.

好的。我要補充的是，就在 Juliusz 之前，顯然，這是我們在那裡唯一未解決的問題，但我們有很多年了，我們還沒有對新飛機訂單上的美元、歐元進行對沖。首批交付 [要到] 2027 年。我們對所有剩餘的 Gamechanger 交付都擁有非常特殊的對沖頭寸，兌歐元匯率為 1.24 美元，這再次表明，它只是支持我們的成本非常低飛機的增加將在某種程度上審視我們的競爭對手空間，他們正在增加飛機而不是美元對沖，並且隨著利率上升，他們正在以顯著的成本膨脹進行租賃。

Juliusz, ECJ and...

Juliusz、歐洲法院和...

I was just going to do an add on there, Michael. As Michael said, having hedged the MAX-10s, we wait to start that after AGM approval in September when we've got what is called a firm commitment for accounting purposes. The S&P upgrade last week will be very helpful in ensuring that we have the hedge lines in place. I wouldn't anticipate hedging 10 years out, but we may start looking at kind of shorter 3-, 4- possibly 5-year horizons on euro dollar. I'm sorry, Juliusz, now hold yourself.

邁克爾，我只是想在那裡做一個補充。正如邁克爾所說，在對沖了 MAX-10 之後，我們等待 9 月份年度股東大會批准後開始，那時我們得到了所謂的會計目的堅定承諾。上週標準普爾上調將非常有助於確保我們擁有對沖線。我預計不會在 10 年後進行對沖，但我們可能會開始考慮更短的 3 年、4 年甚至 5 年的歐元兌美元期限。對不起，Juliusz，現在別動了。

Look, obviously, the Commission -- European Commission today, very poor job on the Lufthansa decision 3 years ago. And I think we all new that back then, the legal community could not believe that the commission could cut corners to that extent. So I think the decision from the court 2 weeks ago was welcomed by most, maybe not by some people based in Frankfurt, but generally, it was welcomed by most. And I think the focus now is on converting that court win into something tangible. Obviously, we don't want it to become a pyrrhic victory.

很明顯，今天的歐盟委員會，在 3 年前對漢莎航空的決定上做得非常糟糕。我想我們都知道，當時法律界無法相信委員會可以偷工減料到這種程度。所以我認為法院 2 週前的決定受到了大多數人的歡迎，也許法蘭克福的一些人不接受，但總的來說，它受到了大多數人的歡迎。我認為現在的重點是將法庭勝利轉化為有形的東西。顯然，我們不希望它成為代價高昂的勝利。

Damage to competition has been done. It's being done because Lufthansa managed to hold on to all of its slots and all of its aircraft. And when you compare their situation to the situation of easyJet, for example, who have to -- and lease back on the majority of their fleet to survive, the damage to competition clearly has been done. So what can the EU Commission now do when reissuing their decision to repair some of that damage. And obviously, what obviously brings to mind is slots in places like Frankfurt, Munich, Dusseldorf or Vienna, where Lufthansa is in a very, very strong position, but didn't have to effectively surrender anything in return for this massive state bailout.

對競爭的損害已經造成。之所以這樣做，是因為漢莎航空設法保留了所有航班時刻和所有飛機。當你將他們的情況與 easyJet 的情況進行比較時，例如，誰必須 - 並租回他們的大部分機隊才能生存，對競爭的損害顯然已經造成。那麼，在重新發布修復部分損害的決定時，歐盟委員會現在可以做些什麼。顯然，明顯讓人想到的是法蘭克福、慕尼黑、杜塞爾多夫或維也納等地的空位，漢莎航空在這些地方處於非常非常有利的地位，但不必有效地放棄任何東西以換取大規模的國家救助。

On ATC, Mark, it's not a great story. There's a 5-year-old complaint with European Commission filed by Ryanair and several other airlines in relation to French legislation that governs ATC strikes. You see in France today when the ATC goes on strike, 50% of flights overflying the French territory are protected as compared to 80% of flights, which land or take off in France. And that is at odds with the position in Italy or Spain or Greece, where 100% of flights are protected.

在 ATC 上，馬克，這不是一個好故事。瑞安航空和其他幾家航空公司就法國管理空中交通管制罷工的立法向歐盟委員會提出了 5 年之久的投訴。你看到今天在法國，當空中交通管制開始罷工時，50% 飛越法國領土的航班受到保護，而 80% 的航班在法國降落或起飛。這與意大利、西班牙或希臘的情況不一致，在這些國家，100% 的航班都受到保護。

The EU Commission have been sitting on a complaint from airlines for 5 years since 2018 and nothing has been done. So it's hard to say whether anything will actually be done at European level. We're pushing very hard. It's our priority #1 in terms of our public affairs engagement in Brussels. But I think that we need a very, very bad summer, I think, some sort of calamitous events, but people not returning from holidays before anything will actually happen.

自 2018 年以來，歐盟委員會已經對航空公司的投訴進行了 5 年的處理，但什麼也沒做。所以很難說在歐洲層面是否真的會做任何事情。我們正在努力推進。就我們在布魯塞爾的公共事務參與而言，這是我們的第一要務。但我認為我們需要一個非常非常糟糕的夏天，我想，一些災難性的事件，但人們在任何事情真正發生之前沒有從假期回來。

I think it's worth mentioning on this occasion, the petition that we have launched a few weeks ago where we have been gathering signatures from customers to support our call on European Commission to act to do something. And I think we have been surprised by the strength of support. We have reached our target of 1 million signatures much earlier than planned. I think we're at 1.1 million or 1.2 million signatures now, adding over 100,000 every week. And we very much intend to submit it to the European Commission very soon, calling them publicly to finally do something in this area.

我認為這次值得一提的是，我們在幾週前發起了請願書，我們一直在收集客戶的簽名，以支持我們呼籲歐盟委員會採取行動的呼籲。我認為我們對支持的力度感到驚訝。我們比計劃更早地達到了 100 萬個簽名的目標。我認為我們現在有 110 萬或 120 萬個簽名，每週增加超過 100,000 個。我們非常打算很快將其提交給歐盟委員會，公開呼籲他們最終在這個領域做點什麼。

The next question comes from James Hollins from BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Hollins。

One for Neil, just on fuel hedging. As you look at full year '25, you're 25% hedged. Just wondering how -- maybe update on your policy and whether you're tempted to uptick it given we're at $75 a barrel?

一個給尼爾，只是關於燃料對沖。當你看 25 年全年時，你有 25% 的對沖。只是想知道如何——也許更新你的政策，以及你是否想提高它，因為我們的價格是每桶 75 美元？

And then Michael, just as we look at ETS allowances stopping a start of 2026 OEM delivery delays, do you think full year fiscal '25 is your best shot at delivering EUR 2.2 billion of net income? Or would you not really think about it that way?

然後邁克爾，正如我們看到 ETS 津貼停止 2026 年開始的 OEM 交付延遲一樣，您認為 25 財年全年是您實現 22 億歐元淨收入的最佳機會嗎？或者你真的不會那樣想嗎？

Neil, fuel hedging?

尼爾，燃料對沖？

James, thanks. Yes, we have 25% hedging in place now for the first half of FY '25, locking in savings where we're hedging at $77 a barrel as opposed to $89 in the current financial year. I suppose one of the issues we have as we try to go out longer is that one, we're one of the only airlines that have the balance sheet to be able to hedge that far out, which means in a relatively illiquid market, which Jet is when we went to the market, they see us coming. And we run the risk that if we do large volumes, we move things against ourselves. So we're gradually layering that up, and I would hope over the next few months, that will start to trend up 30%, 40%, 50%, locking in savings.

詹姆斯，謝謝。是的，我們現在對 25 財年上半年進行了 25% 的對沖，鎖定了我們以每桶 77 美元對沖的儲蓄，而不是本財政年度的 89 美元。我想我們在嘗試延長業務時遇到的問題之一是，我們是唯一一家擁有資產負債表能夠對沖那麼遠的航空公司，這意味著在一個相對缺乏流動性的市場中，這Jet 是當我們去市場時，他們看到我們來了。而且我們冒著風險，如果我們做大量的事情，我們就會對自己不利。所以我們逐漸將其分層，我希望在接下來的幾個月裡，這將開始上升 30%、40%、50%，從而鎖定儲蓄。

But we have to take baby steps on this because compared to pre-COVID, a lot of our competitors are sub-investment grade, got negative equity on their balance sheet and just can't play in this place. And equally, we had to start looking at something we hadn't done in the past and so far as we're now hedging out some of our capacity through caps or options. And again, this means that we get insurance against the worst-case scenario. So Goldman Sachs or [Royce], we go to $100 a barrel. We've locked in a ceiling on that.

但我們必須在這方面採取一些小步驟，因為與 COVID 之前相比，我們的許多競爭對手都處於次投資級別，資產負債表上出現負資產，無法在這個地方發揮作用。同樣，我們必須開始研究我們過去沒有做過的事情，到目前為止，我們現在正在通過上限或期權來對沖我們的一些產能。再一次，這意味著我們可以針對最壞的情況獲得保險。所以高盛或 [Royce]，我們達到每桶 100 美元。我們已經鎖定了上限。

But equally, if the market drops, we get to participate with more variable options there. So 10% of our cover this year is through options and then we've got another 15% that's unhedged. So that has changed slightly the way we have to fuel our hedging into the future.

但同樣，如果市場下跌，我們可以參與更多可變的選擇。所以我們今年 10% 的保險是通過期權進行的，然後我們還有 15% 是未對沖的。因此，這略微改變了我們對未來進行對沖的方式。

The other side of the coin is the dollar. It's a more liquid market and we will absolutely pay for the fuel regardless of what happens in dollars. So we're slightly better hedged there. We're just under 40% hedging at 111 into the first half of next year as opposed to 90% at the moment on FY '24 at 108.

硬幣的另一面是美元。這是一個更具流動性的市場，無論美元發生什麼，我們都絕對會支付燃料費用。所以我們在那裡的對沖稍微好一點。到明年上半年，我們的套期保值率不到 40%，為 111，而目前 24 財年的對沖率為 90%，為 108。

Okay. Thanks, Neil. ETS, look, I mean we are -- I think we will be a beneficiary of environmental taxation going forward. We have one of the most fuel-efficient fleets in Europe. We have a very wide margin over all of our competitor airlines. I think there's no doubt in my mind that environmental taxation will be a feature of air travel, particularly in Europe over the next 5 or 10 years.

好的。謝謝，尼爾。 ETS，看，我的意思是我們 - 我認為我們將成為未來環境稅的受益者。我們擁有歐洲最省油的機隊之一。與所有競爭對手航空公司相比，我們的利潤率非常高。我認為毫無疑問，環境稅將成為航空旅行的一個特點，特別是在未來 5 或 10 年內在歐洲。

We are campaigning very hard, though, that there needs to be fair environmental taxation. And in my view, scandalous and intenable the short-haul intra-EU pays all of the environmental taxation. We exempt long-haul flights to and from Europe despite that they only deliver 6% of the traffic and yet account for 55% of the emissions -- Europe's emissions. That is unsustainable. Long haul has to pay its fair share and also as those transfer traffic. It is bizarre and that you can take two flights through a hub, whether it's (inaudible) or Frankfurt or Munich or Paris to get your destination in Europe and you're exempt from ETS or environmental taxation, whereas if you take one direct low cost flight, you pay all of ETS.

不過，我們正在努力宣傳需要公平的環境稅。在我看來，短途歐盟內部支付所有環境稅是可恥的，也是可以忍受的。我們免除往返歐洲的長途航班，儘管它們只提供 6% 的交通量，但卻佔排放量的 55%——歐洲的排放量。這是不可持續的。 Long haul 必須支付其公平的份額，並作為那些傳輸流量。奇怪的是，無論是（聽不清）還是法蘭克福、慕尼黑或巴黎，你都可以通過一個樞紐乘坐兩趟航班到達歐洲的目的地，而且你可以免除 ETS 或環境稅，而如果你直接乘坐一個低成本的航班航班，您支付所有 ETS。

So I don't regard environmental taxation. It won't fundamentally alter the huge cost and price differential we have our advantage we have over all of our EU competitors. I am not going to get into any discussion on FY '25 profitability. It's far too far away. And as we've seen from COVID and the war in Ukraine, too many outside factors are curveballed -- can emerge out of nowhere.

所以我不考慮環境稅。它不會從根本上改變我們與所有歐盟競爭對手相比的巨大成本和價格差異。我不打算討論 FY '25 的盈利能力。太遠了。正如我們從 COVID 和烏克蘭戰爭中看到的那樣，太多的外部因素是曲折的——可能憑空冒出來。

However, I will go back to the underlying, I think, themes at this morning's conference, that is capacity constraint in Europe. European short-haul capacity will be constrained for the next 5 years out to 2030. Traffic, I think, will continue to recover and be strong. People have more leisure time, rising income. They are going to spend more money on travel and Ryanair is poised to be the beneficiary of that as we grow from probably 20% market share to 33% market share over the next decade.

然而，我想回到今天上午會議的基本主題，即歐洲的產能限制。到 2030 年的未來 5 年，歐洲的短途運力將受到限制。我認為，交通量將繼續恢復並保持強勁。人們有更多的閒暇時間，收入不斷增加。他們將在旅行上花費更多的錢，隨著我們在未來十年內從 20% 的市場份額增長到 33% 的市場份額，瑞安航空將成為受益者。

Thanks Jason. I just want to -- it's an opportunity to bring in Thomas (inaudible) who's our Director of Sustainability. And Thomas, anything else you want to add on the environmental piece or ETS for the next couple of years? .

謝謝杰森。我只是想——這是一個讓我們的可持續發展總監 Thomas（聽不清）進來的機會。 Thomas，在接下來的幾年裡，你還想在環境方面或 ETS 上添加什麼？ .

No, look, I think you've covered off that we'd like to see as (inaudible) policy, both in Europe, in particular, given that long haul those amid the higher proportion (technical difficulty)

不，你看，我認為你已經掩蓋了我們希望看到的（聽不清）政策，特別是在歐洲，考慮到長期那些在較高比例（技術難度）中的政策

Sorry, Thomas, you're getting a bit garbled there.

抱歉，Thomas，你說得有點亂。

Now -- can you hear me now?

現在——你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes, we can, repeat it, if you would, please.

是的，我們可以，請重複一遍。

Yes. Look, I kind of agree with what you were saying, look, we need a (inaudible) policy and long haul shouldn't be exempt and it will (inaudible) London new ETS form that is by the end of '26, per se, is not fit for purpose, do you see them fall into the ETS taxes as well and everyone pays for CO2 emission.

是的。看，我有點同意你說的，看，我們需要一個（聽不清）政策，長期不應該被豁免，它會（聽不清）倫敦新的 ETS 表格，到 26 年底，本身，不符合目的，您是否看到它們也屬於 ETS 稅，每個人都為 CO2 排放付費。

The next question comes from Sathish Sivakumar from Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Sathish Sivakumar。

I've got a few questions here. First is on the ancillaries. Where do you see it actually normalizing in the near term? And have you seen like sign of inflationary pressure on onboard spend? Or we actually benefit from inflation because of the price/mix impact?

我在這裡有幾個問題。首先是輔助設備。你在哪裡看到它在短期內真正正常化？您是否看到船上消費出現通貨膨脹壓力的跡象？還是由於價格/組合的影響，我們實際上從通貨膨脹中受益？

And the second one is actually more specifically Italian how the consumers begin given now you're kind of not leisure (technical difficulty) how does you see the booking curve evolve there come back to the rest of the network?

第二個實際上更具體地說是意大利消費者如何開始考慮到現在你有點不休閒（技術困難）你如何看待那裡的預訂曲線演變回到網絡的其餘部分？

Neil, maybe take the ancillaries. I didn't quite -- you broke up a little bit on the second part. There something -- booking curve in Italy and if it is, then maybe Eddie or Jason, you take that. Neil, ancillary?

尼爾，也許帶上輔助設備。我不太 - 你在第二部分分手了一點。有一些東西 - 意大利的預訂曲線，如果是，那麼可能是 Eddie 或 Jason，你接受了。尼爾，輔助？

Yes, sure. Ancillaries, as you know, had a good performance last year, just under EUR 23 per passenger. We continue to see strong demand for priority boarding, reserve seating. And a lot of that's true. The various pricing models that we have in place where we're trying to hang on to the revenue while increasing the conversion on the product. Equally, onboard spend has come back well and we're working hard to grow that year-on-year. So I think you'll see modest year-on-year growth in ancillaries this year. It might be another EUR 0.50, EUR 0.60 per passenger on to what we had but you're not going to see the kind of EUR 3, EUR 4, EUR 5, EUR 6 increases that we had over the past 3 to 4 years. It will be at a more stabilized level, probably single-digit increases from here.

是的，當然。如您所知，輔助服務去年表現良好，每位乘客略低於 23 歐元。我們繼續看到對優先登機和預留座位的強勁需求。很多都是真的。我們採用了各種定價模型，我們試圖在增加產品轉化率的同時保持收入。同樣，機上消費也恢復良好，我們正在努力實現同比增長。因此，我認為您今年會看到輔助設備的同比適度增長。每位乘客可能再增加 0.50 歐元、0.60 歐元，但您不會看到我們在過去 3 到 4 年中增加的 3 歐元、4 歐元、5 歐元、6 歐元。它將處於一個更穩定的水平，可能從這裡開始個位數增長。

Okay. Sorry, just on the question -- line got a little bit jumbled there is question on Italian domestic.

好的。抱歉，只是關於問題 -- 線路有點混亂，有關於意大利國內的問題。

Yes. So just like I want to understand how the Italian domestic consumers, like (inaudible) how does that should booking curve and versus the rest of the network? Because now you're not just leisure carrier there. You're actually main flag carrier for the domestic market there.

是的。所以就像我想了解意大利國內消費者如何，喜歡（聽不清）預訂曲線應該如何與網絡的其他部分相比？因為現在你不僅僅是那裡的休閒載體。你們實際上是那裡國內市場的主要載旗航空公司。

Yes, you're right. easyJet, at the moment, is very strong for us where 40% market share or probably closer to 50% on the domestic market where we now have well over 100 routes. So in terms of what's happening on the domestic market, Asia or Alitalia or whatever you call now have broadly halved on the domestic routes. We had some carriers who tried to come into Italy, but subsequently closed. They've done more closing a base than opening a base.

你是對的。目前，easyJet 對我們來說非常強大，在我們現在擁有 100 多條航線的國內市場上佔有 40% 或可能接近 50% 的市場份額。因此，就國內市場的情況而言，亞洲或意大利航空公司或任何你現在所說的國內航線已經減半。我們有一些航空公司試圖進入意大利，但隨後關閉了。他們關閉基地比開設基地做得更多。

So the domestic market at the moment, we're well over 100 routes. We launched about 30 new routes during COVID and they're performing very strong. The Italian market for us is our largest market. We carry close to 60 million passengers in Italy this year, and I'm very happy with how it's (inaudible) at the moment. I think we're by far and away, easyJet safer airline and it continues to book very strongly for us.

所以目前在國內市場，我們有超過 100 條航線。我們在 COVID 期間推出了大約 30 條新路線，它們的表現非常強勁。對我們來說，意大利市場是我們最大的市場。今年我們在意大利運送了近 6000 萬名乘客，我對目前（聽不清）的情況感到非常滿意。我認為我們到目前為止，easyJet 是更安全的航空公司，它繼續為我們提供非常強勁的預訂。

Our final question this morning comes from Harry Gowers from JPMorgan.

我們今天早上的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harry Gowers。

So if I can, two quick ones. First one, just on the ex-fuel unit costs, appreciate the guidance for this year for the increase and the widening gap versus peers. But then maybe how should we think about it more in to March '25, should it come down to the EUR 31 per pack sort of this year? So are you thinking more midterm?

所以如果可以的話，兩個快速的。第一個，僅就前燃料單位成本而言，讚賞今年的增長指導以及與同行的差距擴大。但到 25 年 3 月，我們應該如何更多地考慮它，它是否應該降到今年的每包 31 歐元？所以你在考慮更多的中期嗎？

And then just secondly, on probably something about some of the markets where the incumbents are weaker or the build back has been slower, so Scandi or Germany in particular. Are you in active dialogue with airports to expand or put more aircraft in? Or are you waiting for airports to come to you over the next 12 to 24 months to drive traffic?

然後是其次，可能是關於一些現有市場較弱或重建速度較慢的市場，尤其是 Scandi 或德國。您是否正在與機場積極對話以擴建或投入更多飛機？或者您是否正在等待機場在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內來找您來增加交通量？

Okay. Neil, why don't you take the first, ex-fuel unit cost out to March '25 and then maybe Eddie and Jason might give us some commentary on Germany and Scandinavian markets and discussions.

好的。尼爾，你為什麼不把第一個，前燃料單位成本計算到 25 年 3 月，然後也許埃迪和傑森可能會給我們一些關於德國和斯堪的納維亞市場和討論的評論。

Okay. Harry, I suppose I would echo Michael's earlier comments in relation to Slide 4 of our presentation and the gaps that exist between ourselves and everybody else. Some of the drivers of the higher unit costs this year will be, as [Savi] rightly pointed out earlier on in call down to higher crewing ratios. We staffed up for a full complement of 52 Gamechangers for this summer at the back end of April. A lot of those won't be in until the end of July into August. We've got a headwind on route charges with less airlines playing in that space.

好的。 Harry，我想我會回應 Michael 之前關於我們演示文稿的幻燈片 4 以及我們與其他人之間存在的差距的評論。正如 [Savi] 早些時候在呼籲降低船員比例時正確指出的那樣，今年單位成本較高的一些驅動因素將是。我們在 4 月底為這個夏天準備了 52 名 Gamechangers 的完整補充人員。其中很多要到 7 月底到 8 月才會出現。我們在航線收費方面遇到了不利因素，因為該領域的航空公司較少。

But you may see a euro or so uptick on our unit cost ex-fuel this year. I think we'll hold that into '25. And as we get more Gamechangers in and indeed as ATC hopefully improves over the next year or 2, we'll see those crewing ratios starting to come back down again. But the key focus point here is the gaps that exist between ourselves and everybody else. I think it would be shortsighted if we didn't invest in operational resilience this summer. We had a phenomenal performance last year. I think a lot of people are booking on the back of our reliability and having the higher crewing ratios as we go into the summer, particularly with 57 days of French ATC strikes is the right thing to do. And the key for us is to retain the massive gap that exists between ourselves and our competitors in Europe over the next decade.

但今年您可能會看到我們的單位成本（不含燃料）上漲一歐元左右。我想我們會堅持到 25 年。隨著我們有更多的 Gamechangers 加入，實際上隨著 ATC 希望在未來一兩年內有所改善，我們將看到這些船員比例開始再次下降。但這裡的重點是我們與其他人之間存在的差距。我認為，如果我們今年夏天不投資於運營彈性，那將是短視的。去年我們的表現非常出色。我認為很多人是因為我們的可靠性而預訂的，並且在我們進入夏季時擁有更高的機組人員比例，特別是在法國 ATC 罷工 57 天的情況下是正確的做法。對我們來說，關鍵是在未來十年內保持我們與歐洲競爭對手之間存在的巨大差距。

Yes. And just on the German market, I mean, there's clearly dysfunction going on in the German market at the moment. There are rising costs there with security costs, and it's not unusual to have airport costs on a per passenger basis up in the sort of mid EUR 50 where you've got Europe's largest airline that can -- has got to scratch to where to allocate resources, then you're less likely to pull aircraft there. I mean we have the you've got the capital -- you have the largest economy in Europe, where Ryanair cuts its capacity by 25% and grows its market share by 2%. And easyJet cuts by more than 50% its based aircraft in Berlin, like there is something broken in the German market, particularly at the major airports. And that sort of dovetails what Juliusz had to say with the sort of state bailiffs they're protecting the incumbent carrier.

是的。就德國市場而言，我的意思是，目前德國市場顯然出現了功能障礙。那裡的成本和安全成本都在上升，並且每名乘客的機場成本上升到 50 歐元左右的情況並不少見，歐洲最大的航空公司可以 - 必須從頭開始分配到哪裡資源，那麼您就不太可能將飛機拉到那裡。我的意思是我們擁有你擁有的資本——你擁有歐洲最大的經濟體，瑞安航空將其運力削減了 25%，並將其市場份額增加了 2%。 easyJet 將其在柏林的飛機削減了 50% 以上，就像德國市場出現故障一樣，尤其是在主要機場。這與 Juliusz 所說的與他們保護現任承運人的那種州法警相吻合。

But we still continue to grow in regional cities in Germany. And I think it's only a matter of time. And I think when the German economy bounces back that you will see the real lag in lack of capacity that must mirror sort of GDP growth, and you're going to get -- there's just going to be a serious loss of connectivity there. And I think it will eventually come around in the next 24 months or maybe it could be a couple up to 3 years. But in the meantime, we'll continue to grow strongly at German regional airports.

但我們仍在德國的區域城市繼續發展。我認為這只是時間問題。而且我認為，當德國經濟反彈時，你會看到產能不足的真正滯後，這必須反映某種 GDP 增長，而且你會得到——那裡的連通性將嚴重喪失。我認為它最終會在接下來的 24 個月內出現，或者可能需要長達 3 年的時間。但與此同時，我們將繼續在德國支線機場實現強勁增長。

In Scandinavia, it's sort of a different play there. You've got two very weak incumbent carriers but you also have, today, the governments up there seem to have an unending bottomless pit for bailing out airlines. And that feeds into the sort of narrative from the airport, we think somebody is going to come and save today. And while we have five aircraft based in Orlando and are growing quite nicely there, having moved from the secondary airport in (inaudible) we have a small operation, no based aircraft in Helsinki at the moment. We've got bases in Riga and we have also a long-standing base in Gothenburg.

在斯堪的納維亞半島，這是一種不同的遊戲。你有兩家非常弱的老牌航空公司，但你也有，今天，那裡的政府似乎有一個無止境的無底洞來救助航空公司。這融入了機場的那種敘述，我們認為今天有人會來拯救。雖然我們在奧蘭多有五架飛機，並且在那裡發展得很好，但從（聽不清）的二級機場搬遷後，我們的業務規模很小，目前在赫爾辛基沒有基地飛機。我們在裡加有基地，在哥德堡也有長期基地。

So we have the bases there when we get a turn on cost there to grow that market. It has all the sort of short-term connections, which you need put in a serious amount of frequencies in there. Scandinavian leisure has been excellent for us over the last, like particularly as it picked up post COVID and we would hope to grow, and we will grow in those markets, particularly with two weak incumbent carriers. But I think the it's got a down on some of the airports up there that there's nobody else coming in terms of growth and we're essentially going to be the only show in town that can move the dial. So I'm pretty hopeful that we're going to grow in Scandinavia that's going to move first. And Germany will come in the major airports in time.

因此，當我們在那裡獲得成本增長以發展該市場時，我們就在那裡建立了基地。它具有各種短期連接，您需要在其中放置大量頻率。斯堪的納維亞休閒在過去對我們來說非常好，特別是因為它在 COVID 後有所起色，我們希望增長，我們將在這些市場增長，尤其是在兩家實力較弱的現有航空公司的情況下。但我認為它對那裡的一些機場不利，因為在增長方面沒有其他人來，我們基本上將成為城裡唯一可以移動錶盤的節目。所以我非常希望我們能在斯堪的納維亞半島發展，這將是最先採取行動的地區。德國會及時到達各大機場。

Yes. I don't take you much more to add, other than we're going aggressively in our core markets, Italy, Spain, U.K., [George], which we've locked away long-term low-cost deals out to the end of the decade, places like Central and Eastern Europe, we're by far the largest carrier in Poland where we've closed 36% market share, 16 million passengers. We're probably going to double those passenger numbers over the next 10 years. So there's many more opportunities than we can deal with at the moment. And we'll come back to the Germany and Scandinavia is when the costs are at a level that we are willing to accept.

是的。除了我們在我們的核心市場，意大利，西班牙，英國，[George] 積極進取之外，我不接受你更多的補充，我們已經將長期低成本交易鎖定到最後在這十年中，在中歐和東歐等地，我們是迄今為止波蘭最大的航空公司，我們已經關閉了 36% 的市場份額，1600 萬乘客。我們可能會在未來 10 年內將這些乘客數量翻一番。因此，我們目前可以處理的機會要多得多。當成本達到我們願意接受的水平時，我們將回到德國和斯堪的納維亞半島。

This does conclude the Q&A session for today. So I'll hand back over to Michael O'Leary for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。因此，我將把任何補充或結束語交還給 Michael O'Leary。

Okay. Thank you very much, everybody. I said, reasonably strong numbers this morning, the summer looks strong, but we -- I want to stand aside from the irrational exuberance of all of our recent competitor commentary. I think there will be challenges. We are seeing forward bookings and average airfares into the summer are ahead of where they were last year. Whether that gets to the kind of 20% or 30% our competitors are talking about, I'm not sure. And I think now is an appropriate time for caution rather than irrationally exuberance.

好的。非常感謝大家。我說，今天早上的數字相當強勁，夏天看起來很強勁，但我們——我想撇開我們最近所有競爭對手評論的非理性繁榮。我認為會有挑戰。我們看到夏季的遠期預訂和平均機票價格高於去年。這是否會達到我們的競爭對手所談論的那種 20% 或 30%，我不確定。我認為現在是謹慎而不是非理性繁榮的適當時機。

I think the good news this morning is that we have resolved the delivery delays with Boeing for this summer. We are increasingly confident that we'll take 50 aircraft for summer '24. We'll have another 25-, 30 aircraft into summer '25, FY '26. I would not underestimate the strength -- of the Boeing MAX order. The fact that we're able to set out an ambitious growth strategy for the next decade, taking it to 300 million passengers by FY '24 in a marketplace where we will be funding all of that CapEx largely from internally generated cash flow. The balance sheet is strong. We will pay down all of our debt by 2026. And -- but I think shareholders will just need to be patient with us for the next year or 2.

我認為今天早上的好消息是我們已經解決了今年夏天與波音公司的交付延遲問題。我們越來越有信心在 24 年夏季購買 50 架飛機。我們將在 25 年夏季、26 財年再生產 25 架、30 架飛機。我不會低估波音 MAX 訂單的實力。事實上，我們能夠為未來十年制定雄心勃勃的增長戰略，到 24 財年將其載客量增加到 3 億，在這個市場上，我們將主要從內部產生的現金流為所有資本支出提供資金。資產負債表強勁。我們將在 2026 年之前償還所有債務。而且——但我認為股東們只需要在接下來的一兩年內對我們保持耐心。

While the cash generation is strong, we have -- still have significant challenges with this year. The fuel bill will jump by over EUR 1 billion. We have the full year of pay restoration and committed to pay increases with our pilots and our cabin crew over the next 4 years. Debt repayment is a commitment that -- where the Board is very strong on. We are very ambitious on CapEx financing costs for the next 2 or 3 years.

雖然現金產生很強勁，但我們今年仍然面臨重大挑戰。燃料費用將增加超過 10 億歐元。我們有全年的薪酬恢復，並承諾在未來 4 年內增加我們的飛行員和機組人員的薪酬。償還債務是一項承諾——董事會非常重視這一點。我們對未來 2 或 3 年的資本支出融資成本雄心勃勃。

But I think what underlies that is an enormous and widening gap between us and our competitors on the cost side. I thought it was interesting just to come back briefly on Harry's point. While we do focus, and I think we should focus on the ex-fuel unit cost slide on Page 4. Don't forget that in the next -- for the next 4 years and then for the next decade, we will, on top of that, be adding in new aircraft with more seats, but dramatically more efficient, dramatically lower fuel consumption on a per aircraft on a per seat basis. So we're not just talking about the ex-fuel unit cost advantage going forward. We're talking about an ever-widening inclusive fuel cost advantage going forward, and we will be trying to pass on those fuel savings in the form of lower fares to our competitors in a marketplace across Europe.

但我認為，這背後的原因是我們與競爭對手在成本方面存在巨大且不斷擴大的差距。我認為簡單地回顧一下 Harry 的觀點很有趣。雖然我們確實關注，但我認為我們應該關注第 4 頁上的前燃料單位成本幻燈片。不要忘記在未來 - 未來 4 年，然後是未來十年，我們將最重要其中，增加座位數更多但效率更高的新飛機，每架飛機每座飛機的油耗顯著降低。因此，我們不僅僅是在談論未來的前燃料單位成本優勢。我們正在談論未來不斷擴大的包容性燃料成本優勢，我們將努力以更低票價的形式將這些燃料節省傳遞給我們在歐洲市場上的競爭對手。

With constrained capacity, our competitors are, I believe, pushing the pricing envelope or being too aggressive on pricing and that if you like underpins our growth. And I think what would be strong growth over the next 4 to 5 years with reasonable prospects of strong profitability and strong cash flows as long as we don't see any more curveballs like COVID or Ukraine.

由於產能受限，我相信我們的競爭對手正在推動定價範圍或在定價上過於激進，如果你願意的話，這會支撐我們的增長。而且我認為，只要我們不再看到像 COVID 或烏克蘭這樣的曲線球，未來 4 到 5 年就會有強勁的增長，具有強勁盈利能力和強勁現金流的合理前景。

Can I again, just caution the Q1s will be very strong. They will be artificially strong because the Q1 prior year comp last year was badly damaged by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted Easter and meant we had to aggressively price to maintain high load factors on constrained schedule, up to the end of June last year. Q2 will be much more modest because Q2 last year was very strong for us. We didn't have the kind of disruptions we had -- our competitors had.

我可以再次警告 Q1 會非常強大。它們將人為地強勁，因為去年第一季度的比較因俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭而受到嚴重破壞，這擾亂了復活節，意味著我們不得不積極定價以在受限的時間表內維持高載客率，直到去年 6 月底.第二季度會溫和得多，因為去年第二季度對我們來說非常強勁。我們沒有經歷過我們的競爭對手所經歷過的那種破壞。

But nevertheless, I think we're set for a year where we will see strong traffic growth to 185 million passengers, up 25% on our pre-COVID numbers. Modest profit growth this year. And again, I think the number we should focus on if traffic is growing by 10%. We aim to deliver that type of profit growth as well. But in a cautionary environment, it could be better than that if our competitors are right and if our competitors are correct and pricing remain close and remains very strong, we will obviously be the beneficiary of that. But I'm not sure we'll see that until we get to the half year numbers, which will be October, November, and then we'll have a much better feel for what's going on.

但是，儘管如此，我認為我們將在一年內看到客運量強勁增長，達到 1.85 億人次，比 COVID 之前的數字增長 25%。今年利潤溫和增長。再一次，我認為如果流量增長 10%，我們應該關注這個數字。我們的目標也是實現這種利潤增長。但在一個謹慎的環境中，如果我們的競爭對手是正確的，並且如果我們的競爭對手是正確的並且定價保持接近並且仍然非常強勁，那麼我們顯然將成為受益者。但我不確定我們會看到這一點，直到我們得到半年的數字，這將是 10 月、11 月，然後我們會對正在發生的事情有更好的感覺。

I hope my competitors are right and the pricing will be ludicrously strong all summer long, but 30 years of pain in this industry has taught me to be cautious when my competitors are irrationally exuberant and maybe little bit more exuberant when our competitors are cautious.

我希望我的競爭對手是正確的，並且整個夏天的價格都會高得離譜，但在這個行業 30 年的痛苦教會我在我的競爭對手非理性旺盛時要謹慎，而在我們的競爭對手謹慎時可能會更加旺盛。

Okay. Everybody. Thank you very much. As I said, we are extensive road show teams on the road all week across North America and in New York for 2 days, Boston and Chicago, and we have teams on the West Coast, all across Europe. If anybody wants a meeting or hasn't got a meeting booked in, please ask one of the broker, Citi, Davy's, Goodbody's, and we'd be delighted to meet with you. If not, and you want to come visit us in Dublin at some stage during the summer, please do so, we'd be very pleased to give you a briefing and update. And other than that, thank you for participating in this morning's call, and we look forward to seeing you all at some stage during the week. Thanks very much, everybody.

好的。大家。非常感謝。正如我所說，我們是廣泛的路演團隊，整個星期都在北美和紐約、波士頓和芝加哥進行為期 2 天的巡迴演出，我們在整個歐洲的西海岸都有團隊。如果有人想開會或還沒有預約，請詢問其中一位經紀人，Citi、Davy's、Goodbody's，我們很樂意與您見面。如果沒有，並且您想在夏天的某個時候來都柏林拜訪我們，請這樣做，我們很樂意為您提供簡報和更新。除此之外，感謝您參加今天上午的電話會議，我們期待在本週的某個階段與大家見面。非常感謝大家。