Ryanair Holdings PLC (RYAAY) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to the Ryanair Q3 FY '23 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Just to remind you, this conference call is being recorded. Today, I am pleased to present Michael O'Leary. Please begin your meeting.

大家好，歡迎來到 Ryanair Q3 FY '23 結果電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒您，正在錄製此電話會議。今天，我很高興介紹 Michael O'Leary。請開始你的會議。

Okay. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. You're all very welcome to the Q3 results conference call. I'm Michael O'Leary with the usual team here in Dublin. And Neil is joining us from London, where he's doing the media stuff this morning. I take the -- I'm not going to deal with the press release, the slide show and the management MD&A is largely dealt with. I'll take those as read and point you to the Investor Relations page on the website. A couple of quick comments on the Q3 numbers and the kind of outlook going forward. So we reported a very strong Q3, a profit of EUR 211 million, which contrasts markedly with the other alleged low-fare carriers in Europe, all of whom reported a significant Q3 loss. Our traffic was up 24% to EUR 38.4 million. That's up 7% on the pre-COVID figures of FY '20. We're still the only airline that has materially returned to strong growth over our pre-COVID traffic numbers.

好的。早上好，女士們，先生們。非常歡迎大家參加第三季度業績電話會議。我是都柏林常駐團隊的 Michael O'Leary。 Neil 將從倫敦加入我們，今天上午他將在那里處理媒體事務。我接受 - 我不打算處理新聞稿、幻燈片和管理 MD&A 主要處理。我會將這些內容視為已讀，並將您指向網站上的投資者關係頁面。關於第三季度數據和未來前景的一些快速評論。因此，我們報告了非常強勁的第三季度，利潤為 2.11 億歐元，這與歐洲其他所謂的低票價航空公司形成鮮明對比，所有這些航空公司都報告了第三季度的重大虧損。我們的流量增長了 24%，達到 3840 萬歐元。這比 20 財年 COVID 前的數字增長了 7%。我們仍然是唯一一家在 COVID 之前的客運量上實質性恢復強勁增長的航空公司。

We saw a strong rise in Q3 fares, up 14% of the pre-COVID levels. That was mainly due to a very strong October school midterm and the Christmas and New Year kind of period, we saw very strong traffic at higher-than-expected airfares. That was why we had went out on the 4th of January with the trading upgrade. And thankfully, for a change, the Christmas trading wasn't disrupted by any adverse news flow on COVID or Ukraine.

我們看到第三季度票價強勁上漲，比 COVID 前水平上漲了 14%。這主要是由於 10 月份的期中考試以及聖誕節和新年期間的強勁表現，我們看到客流量非常強勁，機票價格高於預期。這就是我們在 1 月 4 日進行交易升級的原因。值得慶幸的是，聖誕節交易並未因 COVID 或烏克蘭的任何不利消息而中斷。

So we had a reasonably undisturbed but very strong Christmas and New Year period. We spent a lot of time, I agree with our union partners agreeing the pay restoration. Not alone have we agreed to pay restoration with almost all of our pilots and cabin crews. The only people outstanding are some of the Belgians. But we've also put in place a multiyear pay agreements, we take multiyear pay agreements onto the back of those deals so that our crews can look forward to kind of guaranteed pay increases over the next 4 years -- 4 or 5 years, depending on which agreements they've done. I think it's an example of how we continue to work well with our unions and with our people, both to preserve jobs during COVID, but also to reward them as we emerge out of COVID when, hopefully, we'll continue to avoid any further Black Swan events.

因此，我們度過了一個相當不受干擾但非常強勁的聖誕節和新年期間。我們花了很多時間，我同意我們的工會夥伴同意恢復工資。不僅我們同意支付幾乎所有飛行員和機組人員的賠償金。唯一傑出的人是一些比利時人。但我們也制定了多年薪酬協議，我們將多年薪酬協議附加到這些交易的背後，這樣我們的工作人員就可以期待在未來 4 年內獲得某種有保障的加薪——4 年或 5 年，具體取決於他們完成了哪些協議。我認為這是我們如何繼續與我們的工會和我們的員工良好合作的一個例子，既是為了在 COVID 期間保留工作，也是為了在我們擺脫 COVID 時獎勵他們，希望我們能繼續避免任何進一步的黑天鵝事件。

Year-to-date unit cost, and I think this is the compelling store message, 1 of the 2 compelling messages this morning. There's been an extraordinary widening of the unit cost gap between us and every other airline in Europe. I would point you to Slide 4 of our industry presentation.

年初至今的單位成本，我認為這是引人注目的商店信息，今天早上 2 條引人注目的信息之一。我們與歐洲所有其他航空公司之間的單位成本差距已經大大擴大。我會向您指出我們行業演示的幻燈片 4。

Before COVID, we were already Europe's lowest cost airline on -- with a total cost per passenger, excluding fuel, ex seat cost per passenger of EUR 31. Over the past 9 months, that has -- we've managed to maintain that. Actually, it's gone down very marginally to EUR 30 per seat, excluding fuel. But every other competitor has seen very significant cost increases, which we calculate their unit cost actually up 18%, Egypt 42%, Southwest in the states up 25%. And even the legacy carriers, who were already ridiculously high cost prior to COVID, we think Lufthansa have seen seat costs up 16% and IAG up 16%. And I think there's such a widening of that cost gap between us and every other airline. It's one of the reasons why we are continuing to grow so strongly, but also while profitability has rebounded strongly this year.

在 COVID 之前，我們已經是歐洲成本最低的航空公司——每位乘客的總成本，不包括燃油，每位乘客的前座位成本為 31 歐元。在過去的 9 個月裡，我們設法保持了這一點。實際上，不包括燃料，它已經非常輕微地下降到每個座位 30 歐元。但其他所有競爭對手的成本都出現了非常顯著的增長，我們計算出他們的單位成本實際增長了 18%，埃及增長了 42%，美國西南航空增長了 25%。即使是在 COVID 之前成本已經高得離譜的傳統航空公司，我們認為漢莎航空公司的座位成本上漲了 16%，IAG 上漲了 16%。而且我認為我們與其他所有航空公司之間的成本差距正在擴大。這是我們繼續如此強勁增長的原因之一，同時也是今年盈利能力強勁反彈的原因之一。

And we are -- and I think that will be 1 of the themes of this morning's call. Thus far, we've taken delivery of 84 game changes up to the end of December. There are still some uncertainties as to whether we'll get all 51 aircraft that Boeing are scheduled to deliver to us by the end of May. At the moment, we think we're somewhere around 44, 45 aircraft. But it's a kind of a daily and weekly thing we worry about with Boeing because obviously, some of our growth into the summer of 2023 will be disrupted if we don't get those 51 aircraft out of Boeing.

我們是——我認為這將是今天上午電話會議的主題之一。到目前為止，截至 12 月底，我們已經交付了 84 項遊戲更改。關於我們能否在 5 月底之前獲得波音計劃交付給我們的所有 51 架飛機，仍然存在一些不確定性。目前，我們認為我們大約有 44、45 架飛機。但這是我們每天和每週都在擔心波音的事情，因為很明顯，如果我們不從波音中取出這 51 架飛機，我們到 2023 年夏季的部分增長將會中斷。

Nevertheless, we're seeing strong growth in all markets with 223 new routes announced for FY '24. We're seeing very strong market share gains. I think one of the things that we constantly decided to do with to go after market share, grab market share gains in those markets where incumbents were withdrawing capacity. So we've seen very strong gains in Italy, where ITA or Alitalia has reduced capacity; in Portugal, where TAP has reduced capacity; in Poland, where Weeze appear to be taking capacity out; and also in Ireland and Spain, where the incumbents were very slow to recover their capacity as Europe emerge out of COVID.

儘管如此，我們看到所有市場都在強勁增長，24 財年宣布了 223 條新航線。我們看到非常強勁的市場份額增長。我認為我們經常決定做的事情之一是追求市場份額，在現有企業撤出產能的市場中搶占市場份額。因此，我們在意大利看到了非常強勁的增長，而 ITA 或意大利航空公司已經降低了運力；在葡萄牙，TAP 的產能有所下降；在波蘭，Weeze 似乎正在消耗產能；以及愛爾蘭和西班牙，隨著歐洲從 COVID 中脫穎而出，這些國家的老牌企業恢復能力的速度非常緩慢。

And I think the other thing we'd point to you this morning is that in H1, we've increased our fuel hedging now from 50% to 60% cover. We were able to take advantage of some weaker pricing there over recent weeks. We brought down the fuel hedging cost from $92 a barrel to $90 a barrel. That's for H1 FY '24. We remain 50% hedged at $92 a barrel for the H2 of FY '24.

我認為我們今天早上要向您指出的另一件事是，在上半年，我們現在將燃料對沖從 50% 增加到 60%。最近幾週，我們能夠利用那裡的一些較弱的定價。我們將燃料對沖成本從每桶 92 美元降至每桶 90 美元。那是針對 H1 FY '24 的。在 24 財年下半年，我們仍以每桶 92 美元的價格對沖 50%。

So we think we are in reasonably good shape. A couple of other themes then. I just want to talk to you about looking forward into this summer, we still see seat capacity constrained in Europe. It is quite clear that some of the legacy carriers are not restoring their pre-COVID capacity. Obviously, in Italy and Portugal, TAP and Alitalia are capacity constrained. Alitalia's fleet has reduced by almost 50%, TAP by 40%.

所以我們認為我們的狀態相當不錯。然後是其他幾個主題。我只想和你談談對今年夏天的展望，我們仍然看到歐洲的座位容量受到限制。很明顯，一些傳統運營商沒有恢復他們在 COVID 之前的容量。顯然，在意大利和葡萄牙，TAP 和 Alitalia 的運力受到限制。意大利航空公司的機隊減少了近 50%，TAP 減少了 40%。

We're seeing Lufthansa in Germany being very slow to restore pre-COVID capacity. The German market is a very interesting 1 this year. Recent figures suggest that it's only operating at 70% of its pre-COVID capacity. And we think that's a conscious decision by Lufthansa to constrain capacity so they can drive up airfares, and airfares are seeing their highest increases in the German market.

我們看到德國漢莎航空公司恢復 COVID 前容量的速度非常緩慢。德國市場是今年非常有趣的1。最近的數據表明，它僅以 COVID 前產能的 70% 運行。我們認為，漢莎航空有意識地決定限制運力，以提高機票價格，而機票價格在德國市場的漲幅最高。

We have reduced some of our capacity in the German market or reallocated some of it where Frankfurt Main were increasing charges. We reallocate deployed capacity to Frankfurt Hahn. We've increased capacity in Niederrhein in Nuremberg and some of the smaller bases there. But I think the German market is going to be 1 where Lufthansa will, being the national champion, will do what they generally do where they have a quasi monopoly. They'll constrain capacity. They will increase pricing quite significantly. And we would be the beneficiary of that, even though Germany is one of our smaller markets.

我們已經減少了在德國市場的一些產能，或者將其中的一些產能重新分配到法蘭克福主要市場提高收費的地方。我們將部署的容量重新分配給 Frankfurt Hahn。我們增加了紐倫堡下萊茵和那裡一些較小的基地的產能。但我認為德國市場將成為 1，漢莎航空將作為全國冠軍，將在他們擁有準壟斷地位的地方做他們通常做的事情。他們會限制容量。他們將大幅提高定價。即使德國是我們較小的市場之一，我們也會從中受益。

The other thing we point to is Weeze are seem to be taking more and more capacity out of markets where they compete with us, Austria, Central and Eastern Europe and Italy regional and Italy domestic. There seem to be, I would have said, a flight of capacity out of those markets where they compete with us. And a lot of that capacity appears to be moving into the Middle East, which it would appear to us to be at Weeze on a kind of campaign to find a market where they don't have to compete with Ryanair, which is a good sense of the strategy from their point of view.

我們指出的另一件事是，Weeze 似乎正在從與我們、奧地利、中歐和東歐以及意大利地區和意大利國內競爭的市場中抽取越來越多的產能。我會說，似乎有產能從他們與我們競爭的市場中流失。很多運力似乎正在轉移到中東，在我們看來，這似乎是在 Weeze 進行的一場運動，以尋找一個他們不必與瑞安航空競爭的市場，這是一個很好的感覺從他們的角度來看戰略。

So I think there's going to be meaningly less capacity, short-haul capacity in those markets as a result of Weeze pivoting some of their capacity away from intra-EU and off to the Middle East. Allied with that is it is somewhere that we think there's going to be very strong transatlantic traffic, and there's the beginning of a recovery of Asian traffic.

因此，我認為，由於 Weeze 將部分運力從歐盟內部轉移到中東，這些市場的運力和短途運力將明顯減少。與此相關的是，我們認為在某個地方會有非常強勁的跨大西洋交通，亞洲交通也開始復蘇。

Now with the risk movement in the COVID restrictions, the Asians will start returning to Europe this summer. They won't reach their pre-COVID levels. But any recovery of the Asian traffic will, we believe, fill up a lot of the short-haul connecting and transfer flights of the legacy carriers, the Lufthansa's, IAG's and the Air France-KLM. The transatlantic traffic will also play a role in that. And therefore, we think and believe that there will be meaningfully less available capacity on European short-haul this summer.

現在隨著 COVID 限制的風險轉移，亞洲人將在今年夏天開始返回歐洲。他們不會達到 COVID 之前的水平。但我們相信，亞洲交通的任何復蘇都將填補傳統航空公司漢莎航空、IAG 和法荷航集團的大量短途轉機和轉機航班。跨大西洋交通也將在其中發揮作用。因此，我們認為並相信今年夏天歐洲短途航線的可用運力將顯著減少。

Europeans will continue to holiday at home. I think the strength of the dollar will militate against them going to transatlantic. Asia is still effectively closed and not very welcoming for long-haul majorities from Europe. And so the outlook, I think, is reasonably robust for summer 2023. We're already seeing that in our forward bookings.

歐洲人將繼續在家度假。我認為美元的強勢將不利於他們跨大西洋。亞洲實際上仍然是封閉的，不太歡迎來自歐洲的長途航線。因此，我認為 2023 年夏季的前景相當強勁。我們已經在我們的遠期預訂中看到了這一點。

As we've reported in the last couple of weeks, we see very strong forward bookings, both volumes and pricing into the February midterm, into the Easter, which is in Q1 of next year, which is in the middle of April, and in summer 2023. At the moment, our bookings are running at or above where they were pre-COVID for the -- some of the peak months of the summer doesn't run right through the summer. And fares at the moment are running above where they were last summer.

正如我們在過去幾週報導的那樣，我們看到非常強勁的遠期預訂，包括數量和定價，進入 2 月中期，進入復活節，即明年第一季度，也就是 4 月中旬，以及2023 年夏季。目前，我們的預訂量達到或超過 COVID 之前的水平——夏季的一些高峰月份並沒有貫穿整個夏季。目前票價高於去年夏天的水平。

Now I think, therefore, everything is set fair for a reasonably strong Easter and a reasonably strong summer 2023. How strong will that be? We have no idea. And I can answer that 90% of the follow-on pricing, which would be, where do I think yields will be this summer? I don't know. But it looks at this point in time that they will be stronger. I think it is reasonable at this stage to expect that there will be a kind of mid- to high single digit up on where they were in summer of 2022. But it's too early to say.

因此，現在我認為，對於一個相當強勁的複活節和一個相當強勁的 2023 年夏季，一切都已準備就緒。那會有多強勁？我們不知道。我可以回答 90% 的後續定價，我認為今年夏天的收益率會在哪裡？我不知道。但在這個時間點看來，他們會更加強大。我認為在現階段可以合理地期望在 2022 年夏季的水平上出現中高個位數的增長。但現在說還為時過早。

We haven't yet finalized the budgets and we don't have an outlook for next year yet. But absent there being any adverse news flow on COVID, any adverse news flow on Ukraine or any other unforeseen Black Swan event. I think it is very reasonable at this point in time to suspect that we will have a second summer of rising fares. We will lead a second summer of rising fares because we will have materially higher oil prices. We were very well hedged last year into summer 2022.

我們還沒有最終確定預算，我們也沒有明年的展望。但是，如果沒有關於 COVID 的任何不利消息流、關於烏克蘭的任何不利消息流或任何其他不可預見的黑天鵝事件。我認為在這個時間點懷疑我們將迎來第二個票價上漲的夏天是非常合理的。我們將迎來第二個票價上漲的夏季，因為我們的油價將大幅上漲。去年到 2022 年夏季，我們進行了很好的對沖。

We're reasonably well hedged, but at higher price levels in December 2023. But the outlook on forward bookings, constrained capacity, strong return of transatlantic and Asian traffic to Europe and Europeans holidaying at home for the second year in a row means I think we will continue to see significant market share gains from Ryanair in those major markets where we're allocating capacity, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and Central and Eastern Europe.

我們進行了相當不錯的對沖，但 2023 年 12 月的價格水平較高。但我認為，遠期預訂的前景、運力受限、跨大西洋和亞洲客流強勁回歸歐洲以及歐洲人連續第二年在家度假意味著我認為我們將繼續看到瑞安航空在我們分配運力的主要市場、葡萄牙、西班牙、意大利、希臘以及中歐和東歐的市場份額顯著增加。

We're also seeing strong growth in Ireland and the U.K. Flybe's failure over the weekend is not unhelpful. Even though they don't have a lot of capacity, the failure is taking place at airports where we tend to be the -- we're going into Belfast, Birmingham, we're the largest airline. They're not big, but it's reasonably helpful and it will help our expansion this year. So we have very low cost going forward. The unit cost gap between us and all other airlines has materially widened as a result of COVID. And the work we've done during COVID, extending airport deals and taking delivery of low cost aircraft from Boeing, working closely with our people and our union partners to restore, pay, lock and agree pay increases for the next coming years. And that work continues.

我們還看到愛爾蘭和英國的強勁增長 Flybe 在周末的失敗並非沒有幫助。儘管他們沒有太多的容量，但失敗發生在我們往往是的機場——我們將進入貝爾法斯特、伯明翰，我們是最大的航空公司。它們不大，但相當有幫助，將有助於我們今年的擴張。因此，我們未來的成本非常低。由於 COVID，我們與所有其他航空公司之間的單位成本差距大幅擴大。以及我們在 COVID 期間所做的工作，延長機場交易並從波音公司接收低成本飛機，與我們的員工和我們的工會合作夥伴密切合作，以恢復、支付、鎖定並同意未來幾年的加薪。這項工作仍在繼續。

So we are on track this year. As I said, we raised the guidance to a range of EUR 1.325 billion to EUR 1.425 billion. We think, again, absent any disruptions in February or March, we will get to our 168 million traffic figure. And again, subject to getting reasonably close to 51 aircraft deliveries from Boeing, we think we are on track to get to 185 million passengers in FY '24. But we haven't yet finalized our budgets, we know that fuel will be higher. And I think there's a reasonable prospect that this summer, average fares will be up mid- to high single digits. It could be more.

所以今年我們走上了正軌。正如我所說，我們將指引上調至 13.25 億至 14.25 億歐元。我們再次認為，如果 2 月或 3 月沒有任何中斷，我們將達到 1.68 億的流量數字。再一次，在合理接近波音交付 51 架飛機的情況下，我們認為我們有望在 24 財年達到 1.85 億乘客。但我們還沒有最終確定我們的預算，我們知道燃料會更高。我認為今年夏天平均票價有可能上漲到中高個位數。可能更多。

But generally speaking, when things look optimistic in this industry, some curveball is sent to keep us all -- to keep our feet on the ground. So outlook is reasonably robust. There are challenges. Fuel will continue to be a challenge. I would caution any irrational exuberance here. We are going to lose money in the fourth quarter. We don't have Easter in the fourth quarter. We are hiring a lot more and training a lot more pilots and cabin crew.

但總的來說，當這個行業的情況看起來很樂觀時，就會發送一些曲線球來讓我們所有人——讓我們腳踏實地。因此，前景相當強勁。有挑戰。燃料將繼續是一個挑戰。我會在這裡警告任何非理性的繁榮。我們將在第四季度虧損。我們在第四季度沒有復活節。我們正在招聘更多的人並培訓更多的飛行員和機組人員。

We expect a lot less disruption at European airports this summer. We think the airports themselves, the handling agents and the other airlines will be appropriately staffed when we get to the summer shades at the end of March. We do think ATC will be assembled, particularly through Q1. So April, May, June will be very difficult. The French will be engaging in their kind of recreational striking. There will be frequent ATC strikes in France, where there will be ATC staff shortage on Saturday mornings, where the French will not turn up to work. German ATC will also be a real pinch point. A lot more flights are being rooted over German ATC because of the natal exercise in Southern Poland because Russia being close. And German ATC is not staffed up or geared up to handle these kind of volumes.

我們預計今年夏天歐洲機場的干擾會減少很多。我們認為，當我們在 3 月底進入夏季時，機場本身、處理代理和其他航空公司將配備適當的人員。我們確實認為 ATC 將會組裝起來，尤其是通過第一季度。所以四月、五月、六月會很艱難。法國人將進行他們那種休閒罷工。法國空管罷工頻繁，週六早上空管人員短缺，法國人不上班。德國的 ATC 也將是一個真正的夾點。由於俄羅斯離得很近，波蘭南部的出生演習使更多的航班在德國空中交通管制上空停飛。而德國 ATC 沒有配備或準備好處理此類數量。

We're working closely with Eurocontrol, the flow managers to try to route flights around Germany as best we can. But we think, certainly, in the first quarter and through the first half of the summer, ATC would be a major challenge will cause a lot of the flight delays and disruptions, and we're pushing very hard together with our other fellow members in A4E. There is a simple solution to a lot of this, and that is to separate the upper air space for the Euro Control to take control of the overflights because if you could protect overflights during periods of national strikes. As they already do in Italy and in Greece, that would be a solution that would solve a lot of these problems. And yet we continue to hear the European Commission come up with all sorts of excuses why this can't be done. And it is another example where the European Commission is absolutely useless. They've had 24 years of abject failure on the single European sky. And when you give them a simple solution like protect the overflights during strikes, they won't take it. So we'll keep pushing for some solution on that.

我們正在與 Eurocontrol 密切合作，後者是流量管理機構，以盡我們最大的努力在德國各地安排航班。但我們認為，當然，在第一季度和整個夏季的前半段，ATC 將是一個重大挑戰，將導致大量航班延誤和中斷，我們正在與我們的其他成員一起努力推動A4E。有一個簡單的解決方案可以解決很多問題，那就是將高空空間分開，讓歐洲管制局控制飛越，因為如果你能在全國罷工期間保護飛越。正如他們在意大利和希臘所做的那樣，這將是解決許多此類問題的解決方案。然而，我們繼續聽到歐盟委員會提出各種藉口來說明為什麼不能這樣做。這是另一個歐盟委員會毫無用處的例子。他們在單一的歐洲天空中經歷了 24 年的慘敗。當你給他們一個簡單的解決方案時，比如在罷工期間保護飛越，他們不會接受。因此，我們將繼續為此尋求一些解決方案。

Well, that's all I have to add. Neil, do you want to take us through MD&A or highlight some things you want to raise?

好吧，這就是我要補充的全部內容。尼爾，你想帶我們了解一下 MD&A 還是強調一些你想提出的問題？

Yes, I will. You dealt with the unit cost advantage very well. We're still on track for our full year guidance. FY '23 is about EUR 31 per passenger ex fuel. So very pleased with the cost performance year-to-date. Hedging, again, Michael pointed out that we've increased our hedging into the summer of FY '24, about 60% hedging out to over $90 a barrel. But the other big differentiator between ourselves and everybody else is the strength of our balance sheet.

好，我會的。你很好地處理了單位成本優勢。我們仍有望實現全年指導。 23 財年每位乘客約 31 歐元（不含燃料）。對年初至今的性價比非常滿意。對沖，邁克爾再次指出，我們已經將對沖增加到 24 財年夏季，大約 60% 的對沖達到每桶 90 美元以上。但我們與其他人之間的另一個重要區別是我們資產負債表的實力。

Our balance sheet, strong investment grade, BBB positive outlook. We had EUR 4.1 billion cash at the end of the quarter. That has actually increased to EUR 4.4 billion today. And importantly, net debt, which is EUR 960 million, down from EUR 1.45 billion at the end of last year. And that's despite EUR 1.3 billion in CapEx. So we've got another EUR 700 million in CapEx between now at the back end of March. And then over the next 12 to 15 months, we'll be very busy paying off maturing bonds of EUR 1.6 billion out of cash, resources and financing another EUR 2.5 billion of CapEx next year and hopefully get the balance sheet back to a broadly net cash, net debt position by the back end of FY '24.

我們的資產負債表，高投資等級，BBB 正面前景。截至本季度末，我們擁有 41 億歐元現金。這實際上已經增加到今天的 44 億歐元。重要的是，淨債務為 9.6 億歐元，低於去年底的 14.5 億歐元。儘管有 13 億歐元的資本支出。因此，從現在到 3 月底，我們還有 7 億歐元的資本支出。然後在接下來的 12 到 15 個月裡，我們將非常忙於用現金、資源償還 16 億歐元的到期債券，並在明年為另外 25 億歐元的資本支出融資，並希望資產負債表恢復到大致淨值截至 24 財年末的現金、淨債務頭寸。

I have nothing further to add, Michael.

邁克爾，我沒有什麼要補充的了。

Yes. I think that's a little point we would -- I want to emphasize. We might get to the Q&A. We are planning is this year, we're going to use those cash resources we have to pay down. We have an EUR 850 million bond to pay off in March. There's a EUR 750 million bond to pay off in August.

是的。我認為這是我們要強調的一點——我想強調一下。我們可能會進入問答環節。我們的計劃是今年，我們將使用我們必須償還的現金資源。我們有 8.5 億歐元的債券要在 3 月份償還。 8 月份需要償還 7.5 億歐元的債券。

We will not refinance those bonds. We will pay them down. Where we try to refinance them, even with our investment-grade balance sheet, we'd be looking at financing cost of between 4.5% or 5% currently. We have the cash resource to pay down that debt, and we intend to use the cash to pay down that debt and to fund CapEx.

我們不會為這些債券再融資。我們會付錢給他們。在我們嘗試為它們再融資的地方，即使我們的資產負債表是投資級的，我們目前的融資成本也在 4.5% 或 5% 之間。我們有現金資源來償還債務，我們打算用現金來償還債務並為資本支出提供資金。

And I think many of our competitors, though, who entered COVID owning a considerable proportion of their fleet have exited COVID, having done lots to sales and leaseback. Particularly, I think Weeze and easyJet. Now most of the fleet is on operating leases. And the cost of those leases will be rising meaningfully through the remainder of this year as interest rates and cost of funds rise, whereas we'll be paying off debt. We own all of our fleet, about 98% or 95%, 98% of it will be unencumbered. And that will be another very significant point of widening between us and the unit cost between us and everybody else.

不過，我認為我們的許多競爭對手在進入 COVID 時擁有相當大的機隊，但他們已經退出 COVID，在銷售和回租方面做了很多工作。特別是，我認為 Weeze 和 easyJet。現在大部分船隊都在經營租賃。隨著利率和資金成本的上升，這些租賃成本將在今年餘下時間顯著上升，而我們將償還債務。我們擁有我們所有的機隊，大約 98% 或 95%，其中 98% 將不受阻礙。這將是我們與其他人之間單位成本之間擴大的另一個非常重要的點。

In reality, I think we are now entering a summer where our average fare is lower than any of our competitors' ex fuel unit costs in Europe. And that probably explains why many of them are either so anxious to get out of our way or not or withdrawing capacity from markets where they previously claimed to wish to compete with us or in the case of easyJet, they don't grow at all and have retreated to kind of fortress airports where because of slot restrictions, they are reasonably isolated from competition with Ryanair.

實際上，我認為我們現在正進入一個夏季，我們的平均票價低於歐洲任何競爭對手的燃油單位成本。這可能解釋了為什麼他們中的許多人要么如此急於擺脫我們的方式，要么從他們之前聲稱希望與我們競爭的市場撤出運力，或者在 easyJet 的情況下，他們根本沒有增長，已經撤退到類似堡壘的機場，由於起降時間的限制，它們在與瑞安航空的競爭中處於合理的隔離狀態。

The reality is we are -- have a much lower cost base than any other airline in Europe. We intend to continue to use that cost base to pass on low fares to our customers. By doing so, we'll take more market share from all of the higher cost incumbents, and we have a flow of low-cost aircraft deliveries from Boeing for the next 3 years that will enable us to maintain this reasonably strong rate of growth.

事實上，我們的成本基礎比歐洲任何其他航空公司都要低得多。我們打算繼續使用該成本基礎將低票價轉嫁給我們的客戶。通過這樣做，我們將從所有成本較高的現有公司那里奪取更多的市場份額，並且我們在未來 3 年內從波音公司交付大量低成本飛機，這將使我們能夠保持這種相當強勁的增長率。

And in a market, which we hope will be reasonably profitable as certainly in summer '23, rising airfares will help us to pay for higher oil prices in a marketplace where our competitors are currently still losing money and therefore, under much more pressure to get airfares up. Constrained capacity get airfares up to cover their higher cost.

在一個市場上，我們希望在 23 年夏季肯定會實現合理盈利，機票價格上漲將幫助我們在競爭對手目前仍在虧損的市場上支付更高的油價，因此，我們面臨更大的獲得壓力機票漲了運力受限導致機票價格上漲，以彌補其更高的成本。

All right. Eddie, I might ask you just before we open up to Q&A, any themes you want to raise here from a kind of commercial point of view or market growth in Europe.

好的。 Eddie，在我們開放問答環節之前，我可能會問你，你想從商業角度或歐洲市場增長的角度提出任何主題。

But I think I'll probably start off just on the operational side because we want to make sure that we are as resilient as we were. Last year, we've had a particular focus over the last number of months, not only with our -- ensuring that we are fully resourced on our sales handling operations, but also have kind of a keen attention on third-party handlers so we can minimize as many of the delays as possible.

但我想我可能會從運營方面開始，因為我們想確保我們像以前一樣有彈性。去年，我們在過去幾個月特別關注，不僅是我們 - 確保我們在銷售處理業務上擁有充分的資源，而且對第三方處理程序也有一定的關注，所以我們可以盡可能減少延遲。

Our punctuality has picked up so that we can -- over the last number of weeks and months, when there has been less capacity. But obviously, we can only control what we can control. So we want to ensure that we have -- we are still going to be the most on-time and reliable airline in Europe this summer and that we continue to focus on.

我們的準時率有所提高，因此我們可以——在過去的幾周和幾個月裡，當容量減少時。但顯然，我們只能控制我們能控制的。因此，我們希望確保我們擁有 - 今年夏天我們仍將成為歐洲最準時和最可靠的航空公司，並且我們將繼續關注這一點。

On the commercial side, we are -- we continue to close out long-term deals with airports, and they're in very good shape at the moment, as we obviously try to drive down airport costs, where environmental taxes are still a challenge, which again are outside of our control. On the commercial side, we are, as you've alluded to already, I mean, we can't really see into what's going to happen next summer. But we're happy by what we see in terms of we don't see any particular weakness or any -- in any of the markets that we're in. We had that as we thought was a -- it turns out it's been a short-term blip in the U.K. market, which has now more than recovered. It looks like that was down to short-term perception issues with getting to and from airports, et cetera.

在商業方面，我們 - 我們繼續與機場達成長期交易，目前情況非常好，因為我們顯然試圖降低機場成本，環境稅仍然是一個挑戰，這又是我們無法控制的。在商業方面，正如你已經提到的那樣，我的意思是，我們無法真正了解明年夏天會發生什麼。但我們對我們所看到的情況感到高興，因為我們沒有看到任何特別的弱點或任何 - 在我們所處的任何市場中。我們認為這是一個 - 事實證明它是英國市場的短期波動，現在已經恢復不止。看起來這是因為往返機場等方面的短期認知問題。

So continued operational resilience. We look in a good shape airport cost-wise. And on the commercial side, while it's too early to say about the summer, we're happy with bookings on the booking curve.

因此，持續的運營彈性。從成本角度來看，我們的機場狀況良好。在商業方面，雖然現在談論夏季還為時過早，但我們對預訂曲線上的預訂感到滿意。

Good. Okay. Thanks, Eddie. Okay. Folks, we'll open it up to Q&A, please.

好的。好的。謝謝，艾迪。好的。伙計們，我們將打開它進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from the line of James Hollins at BNP Paribas.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Hollins。

Yes, 2 for me, please. First of all, just on the -- for me to annoy you by talking about some of yields. So let's talk about some capacity. You've talked about 125% of pre-COVID. Just for clarity, is that based on 124 MAX by then? Or is it the 114 you talked about on your video, i.e., could it go higher or lower depending on what Boeing do? And maybe just your views on what going are up to at the moment?

是的，請給我 2 個。首先，只是關於 - 讓我通過談論一些收益來惹惱你。因此，讓我們談談一些能力。你談到了 125% 的 pre-COVID。為清楚起見，那是基於 124 MAX 的嗎？或者它是您在視頻中談到的 114，即它會根據波音公司的做法而升高或降低嗎？也許只是您對目前正在發生的事情的看法？

And the second one, you flagged quite a few times the U.S. and Asian traveler recovery. Just wondering if you could just maybe let us know what your normal year passenger proportion would be a base? Or is it really just about those sort of filling the capacity of the networks?

第二，你多次提到美國和亞洲遊客的複蘇。只是想知道您是否可以讓我們知道您的正常年度乘客比例是多少？或者它真的只是那些填充網絡容量的東西嗎？

Thanks, James. Yes, to our summer capacity, we're talking -- that's based on us getting all 124 MAXs out of Boeing. That would be the MAX growth we deliver. I think at this point in time, but it's a weekly call where it's a daily and a weekly management issue with Boeing. We are due to get 51 aircraft. We think and we're reasonably sure at this point in time that we'll get 45 aircraft by the end of June. I'm not sure we'll get the last 5 or 6 aircraft. But to be fair to Boeing, deliveries have clipped up in January. They are doing better on the deliveries. We were struggling production, was taking about 10 weeks. That looks like it's come down to 9 and may come a little bit better may improve to 8.5. But we don't think we're going to get all 51 aircraft.

謝謝，詹姆斯。是的，對於我們的夏季產能，我們正在談論——這是基於我們從波音公司獲得所有 124 架 MAX。那將是我們實現的 MAX 增長。我認為在這個時間點，但這是每週一次的電話會議，這是波音公司每天和每週的管理問題。我們將獲得 51 架飛機。我們認為並且我們現在有理由相信到 6 月底我們將獲得 45 架飛機。我不確定我們會得到最後 5 或 6 架飛機。但公平地說，波音公司 1 月份的交付量有所減少。他們在交付方面做得更好。我們正在努力生產，大約需要 10 週的時間。看起來它已經下降到 9，可能會好一點，可能會提高到 8.5。但我們認為我們不會獲得全部 51 架飛機。

Now the challenge for us is, if we don't get those aircraft by the end of June. We're not reasonably constant. We can put them on sales. So we said to Boeing, we're not taking any aircraft. If you don't deliver aircraft by the end of June, we're not taking deliveries. We're too busy, take deliveries in July and August. That will not materially -- if we get 45 in by the end of June, we will hit, I think, 185 million passengers. We may move slightly some of the growth out of Q2 and into Q3. We'll take a couple of extra aircraft to temper, we might do a little bit of a winter growth as well. But if we get to 45 aircraft, we're close enough that I think we'll stick to 185. If we get all 51 aircraft, we could go a little bit over 185, not meaning there may be 186, 186.5 or something. But I think that 45 aircrafts and no major ATC screw-up strikes. And those strikes are damaging to passenger numbers.

現在我們面臨的挑戰是，如果我們不能在 6 月底之前獲得這些飛機。我們不是相當穩定。我們可以將它們進行銷售。所以我們對波音公司說，我們不接受任何飛機。如果您不在 6 月底之前交付飛機，我們將不會接受交付。我們太忙了，7 月和 8 月交貨。這不會很重要——如果我們在 6 月底之前達到 45 個，我認為我們將達到 1.85 億乘客。我們可能會將部分增長略微從第二季度轉移到第三季度。我們會多買幾架飛機來鍛煉，我們也可能會做一點冬季生長。但如果我們得到 45 架飛機，我們已經足夠接近，我認為我們會堅持 185 架。如果我們得到所有 51 架飛機，我們可能會超過 185 架，這並不意味著可能有 186 架、186.5 架或其他。但我認為 45 架飛機並沒有發生重大的 ATC 搞砸襲擊。這些罷工正在損害乘客數量。

The French we've taken 2 now. French has an ATC of the 90 -- cancel about 40 flights. Berlin had some handling strike we cancel other 50 flights. Each of those cost us about 18,000 or 20,000 passengers on each of those days. So -- but it's based on those numbers. What are Boeing up to? Boeing are improving. They are -- they seem to have reducing the manufacturing time. Their target is about 8 weeks. They're not at 8 weeks yet. But we do think they'll remove or eliminate all of those backlogs during this summer peak period, June, July, August, and the situation will get better. We will be much more hopeful than if we are left short a couple of aircraft this summer. We'll pick it up in the winter. And we will have all of the -- that plus the 50 new aircraft well in time for summer of 2024.

我們現在拿了 2 個法語。法國有 90 個 ATC——取消大約 40 個航班。柏林有一些處理罷工，我們取消了其他 50 個航班。在那些日子裡，每一個都讓我們損失了大約 18,000 或 20,000 名乘客。所以 - 但它基於這些數字。波音在做什麼？波音正在改進。他們是——他們似乎減少了製造時間。他們的目標是大約 8 週。他們還不到8週。但我們確實認為他們會在這個夏季高峰期（6 月、7 月、8 月）移除或消除所有這些積壓，情況會好轉。與今年夏天我們只剩下幾架飛機相比，我們會更有希望。我們會在冬天把它撿起來。我們將在 2024 年夏季及時擁有所有 - 加上 50 架新飛機。

The reason I think the U.S. and Asian traffic is important is that in pre-COVID times, most of the legacy airlines would. And I know certainly Lufthansa has said this publicly. 50% of their short-haul traffic in Europe in the summer is long-haul traffic transatlantic and Asians connecting across Europe. And therefore, while we have a reasonably -- I mean, we would not see much Asian traffic.

我認為美國和亞洲的交通很重要的原因是，在 COVID 之前的時代，大多數傳統航空公司都會這樣做。我當然知道漢莎航空已經公開說過這一點。夏季，他們在歐洲的短途交通中有 50% 是跨大西洋的長途交通和連接歐洲的亞洲人。因此，雖然我們有一個合理的——我的意思是，我們不會看到太多的亞洲流量。

We do see so -- I think the transatlantic traffic is a high single-digit percentage of our traffic in the summer. But it does fill up an awful lot of the legacy short-haul traffic around Europe and in a market where the legacies are either unwilling as in the case of Lufthansa, or unable as in the case of Alitalia, Air France-KLM to restore pre-COVID capacity.

我們確實看到了——我認為跨大西洋交通量在夏季占我們交通量的個位數比例很高。但它確實填補了歐洲周圍大量遺留的短途交通，而且在一個遺留下來的市場上，要么像漢莎航空那樣不願意，要么像意大利航空公司、法航-荷航集團那樣無法恢復之前的運力。 -COVID能力。

If they're filling up what is a smaller capacity during the summer with a significant growth of transatlantic and a return of Asian traffic. It generally kind of -- it adds to that kind of slightly net-net capacity down. Now I know we'll come out of this and some analysts will do brilliant work researching all the slot filings for this year, say, no, no, capacity won't be down this year. It will be.

如果他們在夏季填滿較小的運力，跨大西洋航線的顯著增長和亞洲交通的回歸。它通常有點——它增加了那種輕微的淨淨容量下降。現在我知道我們會走出困境，一些分析師會在研究今年的所有插槽申請方面做出色的工作，說，不，不，今年容量不會下降。這將是。

The legacy guys are still filing for all the slots. But Lufthansa, TAP are running around and then canceling slot within kind of 2-week scamming the slot system so that they're able to block competition from us, particularly where we would go in and take up on new slots. But we're not able to go and take up those new slots more than 2 weeks' notice.

遺留人員仍在申請所有插槽。但是 Lufthansa、TAP 到處跑，然後在 2 週內取消航班時刻，以欺騙航班時刻系統，以便他們能夠阻止我們的競爭，特別是在我們進入並佔用新航班時刻的地方。但是我們不能提前 2 週通知去佔用那些新的插槽。

We've complained to the European Commission about this, particularly in the case of TAP, who are doing it on a kind of structural weekly basis. But so capacity will be down pre-COVID. Demand, I think, for legacy short haul will be up and constrained because of the recovery of transatlantic in Asia. And that will generally mean I think stronger bookings and higher airfares for the short-haul point-to-point carriers, and Ryanair dominate that marketplace. And all goes well, I think, for this summer's traffic and pricing in a market where we will be the only air in operating at 25% more than our pre-COVID.

我們已經就此向歐盟委員會投訴，特別是在 TAP 的情況下，他們每週都在進行結構性的工作。但是在 COVID 之前，產能會下降。我認為，由於亞洲跨大西洋航線的複蘇，對傳統短途航線的需求將會上升並受到限制。這通常意味著我認為短途點對點航空公司的預訂量和機票價格更高，而瑞安航空在該市場佔據主導地位。我認為，對於今年夏天的交通和定價而言，一切順利，在這個市場上，我們將是唯一一家比 COVID 前運營率高出 25% 的航空公司。

Yes.

是的。

Yes. No, no. There's always some ice out there that comes up. No, no, no, we've done a study in the capacity is open on pre-COVID. It won't be. There is no appetite among the legacy guys to restore capacity. They seem to be very comfortable with constraining capacity, particularly in Lufthansa in the German market where the Germans are being screwed for very high fares in a marketplace where they're a great national champion is just screwing them all for much higher airfares and not restoring capacity. But Lufthansa can't help themselves. Next question, please.

是的。不，不。那裡總是有一些冰出現。不，不，不，我們已經對 COVID 之前開放的容量進行了研究。不會的。遺留人員沒有興趣恢復容量。他們似乎對限制運力感到非常自在，尤其是在德國市場的漢莎航空公司，德國人在一個他們是偉大的國家冠軍的市場上以非常高的票價被騙，只是為了更高的機票價格而不是恢復容量。但漢莎航空無法幫助自己。請下一個問題。

The next question is from Jarrod Castle at UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jarrod Castle。

Just your -- any thoughts, comments on Flybe, Michael, would be interesting. Is there anything for you? I don't really see it, but yes, just some comments. And then secondly, there's been some really good results being printed on the packaged holiday side. We've had easyJet holidays, Jet2. Would it be something you would revisit? Are you just happy selling hotel rooms, flights as you're currently doing?

邁克爾，您對 Flybe 的任何想法和評論都會很有趣。有什麼給你的嗎？我真的沒有看到它，但是，是的，只是一些評論。其次，在包裝假日方面印刷了一些非常好的結果。我們已經度過了 easyJet 假期，Jet2。你會重訪它嗎？您是否像現在一樣樂於出售酒店客房和航班？

Thanks. Two good questions here. I mean Flybe is an interesting situation. Look, they're pretty small. I mean what Flybe demonstrate is the incompetence of the CAA's regulatory function. I mean Flybe should never have been allowed to get back in the air last year, having originally gone cost. They were never properly financed and the CAA, which is supposed to protect consumers by ensuring that you have airlines adequately financed in the U.K., continues to demonstrate its own competence in exercising its regulatory bump. However, it has gone. It is material.

謝謝。這裡有兩個好問題。我的意思是 Flybe 是一個有趣的情況。看，它們很小。我的意思是 Flybe 所展示的是 CAA 監管職能的無能。我的意思是 Flybe 去年不應該被允許重新起飛，因為它最初已經花費了成本。他們從來沒有得到適當的融資，而 CAA 本應通過確保您在英國為航空公司提供充足的資金來保護消費者，並繼續展示自己在行使監管衝擊方面的能力。然而，它已經消失了。它是物質的。

I mean, as a couple of the airports where we operate, like we're going into Belfast this year to be fair, we're going into Belfast because the government has finally cut the domestic or domestic APD. Their second biggest airport is Birmingham, where we are the biggest airline there, and we will certainly be in talks already with Birming about expanding. And I think there will be some additional slots that will come up in Manchester, where I think we will continue to expand and are allocating more aircraft.

我的意思是，作為我們運營的幾個機場，就像我們今年要進入貝爾法斯特是公平的，我們進入貝爾法斯特是因為政府終於削減了國內或國內 APD。他們的第二大機場是伯明翰，我們是那裡最大的航空公司，我們肯定會與伯明就擴建事宜進行談判。而且我認為曼徹斯特會出現一些額外的空位，我認為我們將繼續擴大並分配更多飛機。

But in structural terms, they're so small. It's not going to make a lot of difference. It's reasonably helpful to our entry into Belfast and our growth in places like Munsterberg. But a lot of what Flybe was doing was kind of domestic U.K. stuff. And that's not a big market for us, although it's not on help.

但就結構而言，它們是如此之小。這不會有太大的不同。這對我們進入貝爾法斯特以及我們在 Munsterberg 等地的發展有相當大的幫助。但 Flybe 所做的很多事情都是英國國內的事情。這對我們來說不是一個大市場，儘管它沒有幫助。

On the package holiday side, I really don't pay much attention to the package holiday side. I think Jet2 is a good operation well run. I remain hugely skeptical of easyJet holiday operation. I never believe any of the profit figures they declare. I think it's just a reallocation of yields into some -- into their holiday operation. But be that as it may, I don't -- we're making enough money flying people around Europe short-haul, point-to-point, with a widening unit cost gap over everybody else.

在套餐假期方面，我真的不太關注套餐假期方面。我認為 Jet2 運行良好。我對 easyJet 的假期運營仍然非常懷疑。我從不相信他們公佈的任何利潤數字。我認為這只是將收益重新分配到一些 - 到他們的假期操作中。但儘管如此，我不這樣做——我們賺了足夠多的錢，讓人們在歐洲短途、點對點飛行，與其他人的單位成本差距越來越大。

The last thing I need to be doing now is setting up an operation, negotiating for bedrooms and accommodation at all these places. It's a different marketplace. If you look at the performance of package holidays in Europe in the last number of years, TUI, Thomas Cook, they've all gone posted various days. They've all need to be bailed out of various ages. The Internet has completely disintermediated the package holiday business. There will always be a role for some element of package holidays.

我現在需要做的最後一件事就是建立一個行動，在所有這些地方談判臥室和住宿。這是一個不同的市場。如果你看看過去幾年歐洲包價假期的表現，TUI、Thomas Cook，他們都發布了不同的日子。他們都需要從各個年齡段得到保釋。互聯網已經完全脫離了套餐假期業務。一攬子假期的某些元素總會發揮作用。

Pose for example, does very well in Poland, where that market is growing, and Pose are wedded to kind of package holidays. But over time, the demand for packaged holidays declines as you get more and more availability of low-cost point-to-point air travel. And people just put together their own packages. That's not to say there isn't a role for the package holiday business. But I think it would just be a distraction to us continue to execute our business plan, which is to grow our fleet, grow our traffic to 225 million passengers over the next 4 years and do so in a manner that widens our unit cost leadership over the likes of Weeze and easyJet and all the others and continue to take meaningful market share from everybody else.

例如，Pose 在波蘭做得很好，那裡的市場正在增長，而 Pose 則專注於度假套餐。但隨著時間的推移，隨著低成本點對點航空旅行的可用性越來越高，對打包假期的需求會下降。人們只是把自己的包裹放在一起。這並不是說套餐假期業務沒有作用。但我認為這只會分散我們繼續執行我們的業務計劃的注意力，即擴大我們的機隊，在未來 4 年內將我們的客運量增加到 2.25 億人次，並以擴大我們的單位成本領先優勢的方式進行Weeze 和 easyJet 以及其他所有公司，並繼續從其他公司手中奪取重要的市場份額。

I think there's a role in certain niche markets for packaged holidays, but that's all as is. It's a niche market. Largely speaking, if you look at the kind of more mature market in the U.K., Germany, the package holiday business is gradually eroding as the availability of low-cost point to point, why the -- as Ryanair expands and takes a huge proportion of the O&D market. Next question, please.

我認為打包假期在某些利基市場中佔有一席之地，但僅此而已。這是一個利基市場。從很大程度上來說，如果你看看英國、德國那種更成熟的市場，隨著低成本點對點的可用性，套餐假期業務正逐漸被侵蝕，為什麼——隨著瑞安航空的擴張並佔據了很大一部分O&D 市場。請下一個問題。

That comes from the line of Alex Irving at Bernstein.

這來自伯恩斯坦的 Alex Irving 系列。

Two from me, please. First, on staff costs. So you mentioned that you've restored the pay reductions and there 4 or 5 pay deals in place in most cases. Can you please give us an idea of clinical profile of those? And how we should expect your unit staff cost to evolve over the next 4 to 5 years? Second question is on your recent reentry into the Amadeus GDS. I mean, clearly, indirect distribution is something you've tried to avoid in the past. Is the decision here basically to target more corporate travel? And if so, how large do you think that opportunity is for you, please?

請給我兩份。首先，關於員工成本。所以你提到你已經恢復了減薪，並且在大多數情況下有 4 或 5 個薪酬協議。你能告訴我們這些的臨床概況嗎？我們應該如何預計您的單位員工成本在未來 4 到 5 年內會發生變化？第二個問題是關於您最近重新進入 Amadeus GDS。我的意思是，很明顯，間接分發是您過去試圖避免的事情。這裡的決定基本上是針對更多的商務旅行嗎？如果是這樣，請問您認為這個機會對您來說有多大？

Thanks, Alex. Okay. We've restored to paid deals, but most of those pay restorations and they've all been approved by our peer crews and their unions our ally to 4- or 5-year pay deals over the next 4, 5 years.

謝謝，亞歷克斯。好的。我們已經恢復了帶薪交易，但其中大部分支付恢復都得到了我們的同事和他們的工會的批准，我們的盟友將在未來 4 年、5 年內達成 4 年或 5 年的支付協議。

In some cases, there's kind of annual pay increases of 2%, 3% a year, and that would be the profile. What do we think on the labor cost over the next number of years? I think labor costs will edge upwards. We'll have a combination of -- we'll be promoting many more first officers to captains. We've been promoting many more junior to senior cabin crew.

在某些情況下，每年的加薪幅度為 2%、3%，這就是概況。我們如何看待未來幾年的勞動力成本？我認為勞動力成本會上升。我們將結合——我們將提拔更多的副駕駛為船長。我們一直在提拔更多初級到高級機組人員。

The rate of our headline rate growth is slowing down. Even as we take these additional aircraft, the headline rate of growth, which last year was 10% this year, we're 10% then. They begin to ease down towards 8%, 7%, 6%. And I think it's inevitable that within that, we would want to continue to reward our people.

我們的總體利率增長率正在放緩。即使我們採用這些額外的飛機，去年的總體增長率為 10%，今年我們也只有 10%。他們開始下降到 8%、7%、6%。而且我認為不可避免的是，我們希望繼續獎勵我們的員工。

And I think, therefore, that the unit -- staff unit cost will continue to rise but in a managed way and not something that will disturb or affect margins going forward. But we are committed to working with our people and their unions to raising pay where we think it is weak, it's safe to do so and we are continuing to work so that as we said even before we've rewarded shareholders, we rewarded our people with pay restoration and pay increases.

因此，我認為單位 - 員工單位成本將繼續上升，但會以可控的方式上升，不會干擾或影響未來的利潤率。但我們致力於與我們的員工及其工會合作，在我們認為薪酬薄弱的地方提高薪酬，這樣做是安全的，我們將繼續努力，正如我們在獎勵股東之前所說的那樣，我們獎勵了我們的員工隨著薪酬恢復和加薪。

I wouldn't want to get into any more detail matters in profile other than to say, by the way, we're doing that in a marketplace where we've seen competitors with panicked pay restorations and panic pay increases, who a number of them seem to be short of staff at the moment, certainly crews. Most notably Weeze, who seem to be running around not just Europe or Latin America and other areas just trying to hire pilots. We don't think to have that issue, but then I think we're a much more stable employer than Weeze proved to be during COVID.

除了說，順便說一句，我們在一個我們看到競爭對手恐慌性恢復工資和恐慌性加薪的市場中這樣做，我不想深入了解任何細節問題，他們中的許多人他們目前似乎缺少工作人員，當然是船員。最著名的是 Weeze，他似乎不僅在歐洲或拉丁美洲和其他地區四處奔走，只是想僱用飛行員。我們不認為有這個問題，但我認為我們是一個比 Weeze 在 COVID 期間證明的更穩定的雇主。

Eddie, do you want to give a quick flavor on why we've gone back into the GDSs and what the strategy will be?

Eddie，你想快速介紹一下我們為什麼回到 GDS 以及策略是什麼嗎？

Yes. Well, we were already with 2 GDSs with Travelport and Sabre. But I think we've increasingly seen with the profile of bases that we've opened across Europe and the connectivity that we've had and the growth in frequencies that business travelers want to access our fares.

是的。好吧，我們已經有了 2 個 GDS，包括 Travelport 和 Sabre。但我認為我們越來越多地看到我們在歐洲開設的基地的概況和我們擁有的連通性以及商務旅客希望獲得我們票價的頻率的增長。

And a lot of the corporates go through these systems, whereby it manages their expenses. And that's primarily where we're going with Amadeus. It's primarily on the corporate business type customer who doesn't want to necessarily have the complication of going directly to ryanair.com, when it's able to manage the expenses of their employees. So we will -- that will be coming shortly. But we will look at any other distribution channels and some of these are nationally based as well where -- why there's a direct feed into corporate expense management.

許多公司都通過這些系統來管理他們的費用。這就是我們與 Amadeus 的主要合作方向。它主要針對企業業務類型的客戶，他們不想在能夠管理員工費用的情況下直接訪問 ryanair.com。所以我們將 - 這將很快到來。但我們將研究任何其他分銷渠道，其中一些渠道也是全國性的——為什麼直接進入公司費用管理。

That's from the line of Savi Syth at Raymond James.

這是來自 Raymond James 的 Savi Syth 系列。

So the first question, if I -- hey, so the first question, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about fuel efficiency in terms of the gallon proceeds or some of the metrics. I was just curious what you're seeing today and your expectation as you kind of head into fiscal year '24 and maybe the next couple of years, given that you're getting the MAX aircraft in the fleet and what we could expect on that front? And then secondly, I was just wondering if you could remind me on the lease extensions on the Airbus and NG fleet. And if there's any more that you're still working on?

所以第一個問題，如果我 - 嘿，那麼第一個問題，我想知道你是否可以從加侖收益或一些指標方面談談燃油效率。我只是很好奇你今天看到了什麼，以及你在進入 24 財年或者未來幾年時的期望，因為你正在機隊中獲得 MAX 飛機以及我們對此的期望正面？其次，我只是想知道你是否可以提醒我空客和 NG 機隊的租賃延期。如果還有其他您仍在努力的事情？

Okay. Savi, thank you. I'm going to ask Thomas Fowler here, the Director of Sustainability, just to talk about the fuel efficiency and what we're doing there. And Neil, maybe you might give an update on the lease situation on -- it's essentially the A320 fleet.

好的。薩維，謝謝。我要在這裡問可持續發展總監 Thomas Fowler，談談燃油效率和我們在那裡所做的事情。尼爾，也許你可以提供有關租賃情況的最新信息——它本質上是 A320 機隊。

Savi, just on the fuel efficiency on the market, like I think as we well flagged before. We're seeing slightly better than the 16% fuel efficiency saving on the longer sectors and at the 16% on the shorter sector. So it's very hard to give you the exact per gallon.

薩維，就市場上的燃油效率而言，就像我認為的那樣，就像我們之前提到的那樣。我們看到，較長航段的燃油效率比 16% 和較短航段的 16% 略好。所以很難給你準確的每加侖。

We're not spending on a lot of the budget and allocation for like somewhere around that 16% figure as you see the MAXs coming in is not unreasonable. And also, we're also retrofitting the 737 NGs with the scimitar winglets, which will be about 1.5% fuel save in a year. But most of that work will be done through the winter, when we're doing our maintenance schedule. So we won't see a big number this year, but we'll have a bit more color going into next year is how the maintenance season goes on that retrofit.

我們並沒有在大約 16% 的數字上花費大量預算和分配，因為你看到 MAX 的出現並非不合理。此外，我們還在為 737 NG 改裝彎刀翼梢小翼，這將在一年內節省約 1.5% 的燃油。但大部分工作將在冬季完成，屆時我們將進行維護計劃。所以我們今年不會看到很多，但明年我們會有更多的顏色，那就是維護季節如何進行改造。

Okay. On the leases Savi, we extended 24 of the 29 A320 leases out as far as 2028. So that's very attractive lease rentals. And we've opportunistically now added a 737 NG former sister ship, which became available again at attractive levels that can mean to our fleet in December. But we're not usually interested or searching at this stage for secondhand aircraft with the Boeing's coming in a more predictable fashion than before.

好的。在 Savi 的租賃中，我們將 29 架 A320 中的 24 架延長至 2028 年。所以這是非常有吸引力的租賃租金。我們現在機會主義地增加了一艘 737 NG 前姊妹船，它在 12 月再次以有吸引力的水平提供，這對我們的艦隊來說可能意味著。但在這個階段，我們通常不會對二手飛機感興趣或尋找二手飛機，因為波音公司的到來比以前更可預測。

Good. Thanks, Savi. I mean, I think it's fair to say we're not out looking for additional lease aircraft, but where we are receiving offers. And if the offers are financially are opportunities interesting, we follow up on them. At the moment, we have more than 120 aircraft to 100 aircraft is take from Boeing or 120 over the next 3 years. And therefore, all of the growth will take place on these low-cost aircraft that are really extraordinarily fuel-efficient given that they're carrying 4% more passengers. Thanks for the questions, Savi. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝，薩維。我的意思是，我認為可以公平地說，我們不是在尋找額外的租賃飛機，而是在我們收到報價的地方。如果報價在財務上是有趣的機會，我們會跟進。目前，我們有 120 多架飛機，其中 100 架飛機來自波音公司，或者在未來 3 年內增加 120 架。因此，所有的增長都將發生在這些低成本飛機上，這些飛機的載客量增加了 4%，因此非常省油。謝謝你的問題，薩維。請下一個問題。

That comes from the line of Jaime Rowbotham at Deutsche Bank.

這來自德意志銀行的 Jaime Rowbotham。

Just going back to staff, Michael, are competitors successfully pinching Ryanair pilots by offering higher pay? Or put another way, is pilot turnover any higher than normal? And if so, how are you addressing it? And then secondly, as Neil said, in terms of overall costs ex fuel per pack fuel, you're on track for EUR 31 this year. What about the year to March '24? Can you get back to fiscal '19 levels of just below EUR 30? Or do things like labor costs hedging up start to make that tricky?

回到員工問題上，邁克爾，競爭對手是否通過提供更高的薪水成功地擠壓了瑞安航空公司的飛行員？或者換句話說，飛行員的離職率是否高於正常水平？如果是這樣，您將如何解決？其次，正如 Neil 所說，就每包燃料的總成本（不包括燃料）而言，您今年的成本有望達到 31 歐元。那到 24 年 3 月的那一年呢？你能回到 19 財年略低於 30 歐元的水平嗎？還是勞動力成本對沖之類的事情開始變得棘手？

Okay, thanks. We're not seeing any competitors. I mean, like I think it's kind of a side. A, there's a couple of issues. We operate 737s across Europe, almost all of our competitors are operating Airbus aircraft. So if you like, the inflation of the pilot pinching seems to be within the Airbus fleet in general terms. We are seeing some pilots say that there is certainly a restoration of the Gulf carriers out there looking to hire first officers who should know better, but don't and are attracted out to the Middle East.

好的謝謝。我們沒有看到任何競爭對手。我的意思是，就像我認為這是一個方面。答，有幾個問題。我們在歐洲運營 737，幾乎我們所有的競爭對手都在運營空客飛機。因此，如果您願意，一般而言，飛行員捏造的膨脹似乎在空中客車機隊內。我們看到一些飛行員說，肯定有一些海灣航空公司正在恢復，他們希望僱用應該更了解但不了解並且被吸引到中東的副駕駛。

But the numbers are small. And I put that in the context, like we currently have almost 1,200 cadets coming through our system. We've been hiring and training cadets assiduously over the last -- I would say, over the last 2 years, and so we have far more pilots coming through our system, then we have attrition in respect, if anything, we may be a little bit over piloted for the next year or 2.

但人數很少。我把它放在上下文中，就像我們目前有近 1,200 名學員通過我們的系統一樣。在過去，我們一直在努力招聘和培訓學員——我想說，在過去的兩年裡，所以我們有更多的飛行員通過我們的系統，然後我們在尊重方面有損耗，如果有的話，我們可能是明年或兩年的試點有點過頭了。

But we think that's a sensible place to be because we're expecting significant ATC disruptions, certainly through the first and possibly the second quarter of next year. But no, we see no pilot pinching. And I think to the extent there is pilot pinching is taking place between the Airbus operators. PA Pinching, easyJet, easyJet pinching. Weeze and Weeze's pitching, Balearic generally.

但我們認為這是一個明智的選擇，因為我們預計 ATC 會出現重大中斷，肯定會持續到明年第一季度，也可能是第二季度。但是不，我們沒有看到飛行員在捏。而且我認為空客運營商之間正在發生飛行員捏造的程度。 PA 捏，easyJet，easyJet 捏。 Weeze和Weeze的投手，巴利阿里一般。

On ex fuel unit costs, I mean, again, I think the issue for us is not so much what's going to happen to our unit cost over the next 12 months. I think we will have a unit cost of about EUR 31 by the time we get to the end of this year. I think the real opportunity here for investors and analysts, though, is what's going to happen to Weeze and easyJet and Lufthansa and IAG's unit costs overnight. They've exploded over the last 2 years of COVID, principally huge cost inflation on aircraft ownership and lease costs, and that's going to continue to rise.

關於前燃料單位成本，我的意思是，我認為對我們來說問題不在於未來 12 個月內我們的單位成本會發生什麼。我認為到今年年底，我們的單位成本將約為 31 歐元。不過，我認為對於投資者和分析師而言，真正的機會在於 Weeze 和易捷航空以及漢莎航空和 IAG 的單位成本將在一夜之間發生什麼變化。在過去 2 年的 COVID 中，它們呈爆炸式增長，主要是飛機所有權和租賃成本的巨大成本膨脹，而且這種情況還將繼續上升。

They're generally operating and have airports where they are price takers of both airport fees and handling charges that are rising materially, and I think you're going to see that continue to widen. I think also if you look at the way Weeze and to a lesser extent, where easyJet has been out there, panicking over pay levels and recruitment seem to be recruitment changes. I think there pay and staff costs would be rising at a faster level than ours, particularly when we are adding aircraft that carry 4% more passengers and burning 14% or 16% less fuel.

他們通常在運營並且擁有機場，在那裡他們是機場費用和手續費的價格接受者，這些費用和手續費正在大幅上漲，我認為你會看到這種情況繼續擴大。我還認為，如果你看看 Weeze 的方式，並在較小程度上看看 easyJet 已經出現的情況，對薪酬水平和招聘的恐慌似乎是招聘變化。我認為工資和員工成本的增長速度會比我們的更快，特別是當我們增加載客量增加 4% 且燃油消耗減少 14% 或 16% 的飛機時。

So I think the issue for our investors and analysts is not so much will our EUR 31 goes to EUR 32 or stay at EUR 31 in FY '24. But it's that the widening gap between our unit cost of EUR 30. Weeze currently at EUR 46 and easyJet at EUR 75. I think you're going to see that cost gap widen materially in the next year, particularly on aircraft and leasing and ownership side, where we're paying down debt and they're exposed to rising financing costs over the next 12 months. Thanks, Jaime. Next question, please?

因此，我認為我們的投資者和分析師的問題不是我們的 31 歐元會在 24 財年升至 32 歐元還是保持在 31 歐元。但這是我們 30 歐元的單位成本之間不斷擴大的差距。Weeze 目前為 46 歐元，easyJet 為 75 歐元。我認為你會看到明年成本差距大幅擴大，特別是在飛機、租賃和所有權方面一方面，我們正在償還債務，而他們在未來 12 個月內面臨融資成本上升的風險。謝謝，傑米。請問下一個問題？

That comes from the line of Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

這來自 Evercore ISI 的 Duane Pfennigwerth 系列。

I won't ask you another unit cost question though I was tempted. Maybe just on the guidance update from early January, you noted some softening, I think, in U.K. point of sale demand -- or sorry, on fares, U.K. point of sale and maybe Ireland. Can you just expand on that a little bit? And have you seen any change or firming since the guidance update?

儘管我很想問你另一個單位成本問題。也許只是在 1 月初的指導更新中，我認為您注意到英國銷售點需求有所減弱——或者抱歉，在票價、英國銷售點和愛爾蘭方面。你能稍微擴展一下嗎？自指南更新以來，您是否看到任何變化或堅定？

Yes. Thanks, Duane. We thought -- I mean when we came out with the upgrade on the 4th of March, there was certainly something going on in the U.K. We saw weakness in U.K. outbound and Ireland UK, which is quite a big market for us. We weren't sure at the time whether there was an awful lot of kind of coverage of -- there were strikes and train strikes and head strikes and strikes all over the place in the U.K.

是的。謝謝，杜安。我們認為 - 我的意思是當我們在 3 月 4 日進行升級時，英國肯定發生了一些事情。我們看到英國出境和愛爾蘭英國的疲軟，這對我們來說是一個相當大的市場。當時我們不確定是否有大量的報導——英國到處都有罷工、火車罷工、頭部罷工和罷工。

That didn't seem to last long. I mean, by the time we got to the middle of January in actual fact, U.K. outbound and Ireland UK were 1 of our stronger booking markets. So it seems to have been a kind of a sort of a temporary malaise largely driven by kind of media. Maybe the U.K. hasn't quite got back to work yet, and the media coverage given to kind of transport strikes and difficulties to get in with border force and trained.

這似乎並沒有持續多久。我的意思是，實際上到 1 月中旬時，英國出境和愛爾蘭英國是我們更強大的預訂市場之一。所以這似乎是一種主要由某種媒體驅動的暫時不適。也許英國還沒有完全恢復工作，媒體報導了某種運輸罷工以及難以與邊防部隊接觸和接受訓練。

Now we saw no impact on our daily both -- on our day-to-day load factors. People if there were train strikes for either driving to the airport, into the airport anyway. But I'm pleased to say that, that has certainly disappeared through the remainder of January. We now see no market that we could point to as being weak. All markets are booking strongly into the February midterms, the Easter in the middle of April and through the summer, all markets look strong, booking robustly, booking strongly.

現在我們看不到對我們日常的影響——對我們的日常負載因素。人們如果有火車罷工，要么開車去機場，要么開車去機場。但我很高興地說，在一月份的剩餘時間裡，這種情況肯定已經消失了。我們現在看不到可以指出疲軟的市場。所有市場都在為 2 月的中期選舉、4 月中旬的複活節和整個夏季進行強勁預訂，所有市場看起來都很強勁，預訂強勁，預訂強勁。

I made the point publicly that we had a record -- we did our record weekend. We took 2 million bookings in the second weekend in January. And we had a record week 5 million. But first time in a week, we've ever take 5 million -- we've ever taken 5 million bookings. That won't happen every week. But bookings are stronger. Forward pricing is stronger.

我公開表示我們創下了記錄——我們創造了創紀錄的周末。我們在 1 月的第二個週末獲得了 200 萬份預訂。我們有創紀錄的一周 500 萬。但在一周內，我們第一次接受了 500 萬次——我們接受了 500 萬次預訂。這不會每週都發生。但預訂量更大。遠期定價更強。

The kind of caution I would have at the moment is this won't continue. I generally tend to be a bit kind of nervous. When things are going very well, there's usually a curveball and somewhere to haunt us, it's the nature of this industry. But looking around and absent any adverse development on Ukraine, COVID or some black swan event that we can't foresee, it all looks worryingly strong, I think, into April and into this summer, as long as French and German ATC don't (expletive) it all up in March, April, May, I think all operators in Europe will be positioned for a very strong summer of traffic and bookings and reasonable fair recovery.

我現在要謹慎的是，這種情況不會繼續下去。我通常有點緊張。當事情進展順利時，通常會有一個曲線球和某個地方困擾我們，這是這個行業的本質。但環顧四周，如果烏克蘭、新冠肺炎或一些我們無法預見的黑天鵝事件沒有任何不利發展，我認為，只要法國和德國的 ATC 不這樣做，到 4 月和今年夏天，一切看起來都非常強勁（咒罵）這一切都在三月、四月、五月，我認為歐洲的所有運營商都將為一個非常強勁的夏季交通和預訂以及合理的公平復蘇做好準備。

The difference between them and us is that we'll be doing with an enormous unit cost advantage over where we other operate, right? The other operators who are currently loss making would probably be profitable this year. And we would hope to see into FY '24 another reasonable bounce in our profitability because of a very strong unit cost position, a very strong balance sheet and considerable growth in our market shares in all markets across Europe.

他們和我們之間的區別在於，與其他運營商相比，我們將擁有巨大的單位成本優勢，對嗎？目前虧損的其他運營商今年可能會盈利。我們希望在 24 財年看到我們的盈利能力再次合理反彈，因為單位成本狀況非常強勁，資產負債表非常強勁，而且我們在歐洲所有市場的市場份額都有可觀的增長。

That's great, Michael. And maybe just for my follow-up. On the aircraft constraint side and on the kind of delivery pacing side, how much are you being held back into kind of calendar '23 here? So summer of '23, how much larger would you be, how much larger would these passenger targets be if you had no aircraft constraints?

太好了，邁克爾。也許只是為了我的後續行動。在飛機限制方面和交付節奏方面，您在這裡的日曆 '23 有多少被阻礙？那麼 23 年夏天，如果沒有飛機限制，你會增加多少，這些乘客目標會增加多少？

Really not. I mean I think really not a lot. Like if Boeing can get a 45 aircraft yield, they were originally going on to deliver 51 aircraft by the end of April. If we get 45-plus aircraft by the end of June, then there will be no constraint at all. We'll get to 185 million passengers.

真的不。我的意思是我認為真的不多。就像如果波音公司能夠獲得 45 架飛機的產量，他們原本打算在 4 月底之前交付 51 架飛機。如果我們在 6 月底之前獲得 45 架以上的飛機，那麼就完全沒有限制了。我們將達到 1.85 億乘客。

We would like to get to 51 aircraft, in which case, we might get to 185.5 million or 186 million. But really, we have it all in there. As long as if Boeing gets forced by aircraft by the end of June, that will be a dramatically better outlook than I think when we were doing the half year numbers in November, I was worried we could be down at around 35 aircraft, and we'd be looking at maybe 178 million, 180 million passengers.

我們希望達到 51 架飛機，在這種情況下，我們可能會達到 1.855 億架或 1.86 億架。但實際上，我們擁有一切。只要波音在 6 月底之前被迫使用飛機，這將比我在 11 月做半年數字時想像的要好得多，我擔心我們可能會下降到大約 35 架飛機，我們可能會看到 1.78 億、1.8 億乘客。

So to be fair to Boeing, we have been writing rightly critical of in recent years, certainly, the delivery and the production side has improved over the Christmas and into the new year period. But it gets very tight and very fraud, very little would cause us to miss the delivery a couple of -- for 3 or 4 aircraft deliveries missed at the end of June, means we're either canceling flights in July or we can't put those prices on sales.

因此，公平地說，我們近年來一直在正確地批評波音，當然，交付和生產方面在聖誕節和新年期間有所改善。但它變得非常緊張和非常欺詐，很少會導致我們錯過幾次交付——6 月底有 3 或 4 架飛機錯過交付，這意味著我們要么取消 7 月的航班，要么我們不能把這些價格放在銷售上。

And the critical thing is we need to know those aircraft are coming at the end of May, so we can put them on sales through. If we can get them on sale with 4 or 6 weeks notice, we'll fill them into July and August. If we can't get them on sale, we won't sell them. But it's really a big FY '25. Thanks, Duane. Next question, please?

關鍵是我們需要知道這些飛機將在 5 月底到貨，這樣我們才能將它們投入銷售。如果我們能在提前 4 或 6 週通知的情況下將它們出售，我們將在 7 月和 8 月完成銷售。如果我們不能出售它們，我們就不會出售它們。但這確實是一個很大的 25 財年。謝謝，杜安。請問下一個問題？

That's from Stephen Furlong at Davy.

這是戴維的斯蒂芬弗隆的。

Can you just talk about future aircraft deals? I'm just thinking more about size of plane. I mean do you think the optimal is the 197? Or it looks like the MAX 10 may get, for example, certified, so 230 or whatever plus? And then kind of related to that, I see that maybe it's for Neil. 20 air fails your average lead age of 8 years. Is that kind of the optimal fleet age number to be younger or older? And I'm thinking of things like maintenance CapEx, et cetera.

你能談談未來的飛機交易嗎？我只是在考慮更多關於飛機的大小。我的意思是你認為最佳是 197？或者看起來 MAX 10 可能會獲得認證，例如 230 或其他什麼？然後有點相關，我知道這可能是給尼爾的。 20 空氣不符合您 8 年的平均領先年齡。那種最佳機隊年齡數字是更年輕還是更年長？我正在考慮維護資本支出等問題。

Okay. Thanks. Neil, I ask you to do the second question. I mean, again, Stephen, my response on the size of plane questions, again, it's a bit like we wish you prefer Airbus or Boeing. I prefer whichever is cheaper, which has got the cheaper seat. Size of aircraft, I would always take a bigger aircraft as long as I'm getting a cheaper seats per our per seat price. Now we are -- we broke off negotiations with Boeing.

好的。謝謝。尼爾，我請你做第二個問題。我的意思是，再次，斯蒂芬，我對飛機尺寸問題的回答，這有點像我們希望你更喜歡空客或波音。我喜歡哪個更便宜，哪個有更便宜的座位。飛機的大小，只要我能以每個座位的價格獲得更便宜的座位，我總是會乘坐更大的飛機。現在我們 - 我們中斷了與波音公司的談判。

I think it's fair to say they have -- we're back talking to Boeing again about new aircraft, but not in any serious way. I don't expect anything significant coming for the next number of months. Boeing have been distracted up until the end of December where they were going to get the MAX 10 the redesign of the MAX 10. Can Congress are going to approve that or extend that deadline that the guillotine deadline at the end of December?

我認為可以公平地說他們已經 - 我們再次與波音公司討論新飛機，但不是以任何嚴肅的方式。我預計在接下來的幾個月裡不會有任何重要的事情發生。直到 12 月底，波音公司一直在分心，他們打算讓 MAX 10 重新設計 MAX 10。國會能否批准或延長 12 月底斷頭台最後期限的最後期限？

I would be of the view we have been surprised -- pleasantly surprised by the performance of the MAX A200. The 197 seat is a perfect aircraft for us in terms of high-frequency operation. We get 4% more seats than 18% less or 16% less fuel consumption.

我認為我們對 MAX A200 的性能感到驚訝 - 驚喜。 197座在高頻操作方面對我們來說是一架完美的飛機。我們的座位數比減少 18% 或油耗減少 16% 多 4%。

I would be very willing to look at going up to the MAX 10, whenever the MAX 10 gets still not certified, whenever it's certified and they're able to deliver it, as long as there's a reasonable discount for the additional 30 seats because the additional 30 seats means we're going to start taking hits on yield where you allocate that aircraft and also probably going to take a kind of hit on turnaround.

我非常願意考慮升級到 MAX 10，只要 MAX 10 仍未通過認證，無論何時通過認證並且他們能夠交付，只要額外的 30 個座位有合理的折扣，因為額外的 30 個座位意味著我們將開始在您分配飛機的地方對收益產生影響，並且也可能會對周轉率產生影響。

But I'm entirely -- would be entirely opportunistic. I put it this way, if we got the extra 30 seats for free, I would -- we'll be ordering all MAX 10s going forward. Boeing will probably come some busted a reason why you've got to pay extra for the extra 30 seats and in which case then we would take all we'd be looking at additional A200. So it's entirely down to pricing. Whichever aircraft gets us the cheaper per seat cost would be the aircraft that I would favor.

但我完全 - 完全是機會主義的。我是這樣說的，如果我們免費獲得額外的 30 個席位，我會——我們將在未來訂購所有 MAX 10。波音公司可能會因為你必須為額外的 30 個座位支付額外費用而出現一些問題，在這種情況下，我們將採取所有我們正在尋找額外的 A200。所以這完全取決於定價。無論哪架飛機讓我們的每座成本更便宜，都是我喜歡的飛機。

Neil, do you want to take the second question, please?

尼爾，你想回答第二個問題嗎？

Yes, sure, Stephen. 8 years is a relatively young fleet. In the past, we would have flipped out aircraft at 8 years because we just had such big order books back in 2005, 2006, and we were running out of warranties. We're absolutely no difficulty running the fleet older. And in fact, the scimitar winglets, which reduced the fuel for about 1.5%, adds to the longevity of the aircraft.

是的，當然，斯蒂芬。 8年是一支比較年輕的艦隊。在過去，我們會在 8 年時淘汰飛機，因為我們在 2005 年、2006 年的訂單量如此之大，而且我們的保修期已經快用完了。我們絕對可以毫無困難地運行更老的艦隊。事實上，彎刀小翼減少了約 1.5% 的燃料，從而延長了飛機的使用壽命。

They do get more expensive to maintain, particularly when you're up to maybe 16, 17, 18-year checks. But we've got a lot of very young aircraft in the fleet, nowhere close to that and on the warranties for the next few years. So no, 8 years is good, and we're happy to let the fleet age a little bit over the next few years. Thanks, Stephen. Next question, please.

它們的維護成本確實會更高，尤其是當您進行長達 16、17、18 年的檢查時。但我們的機隊中有很多非常年輕的飛機，遠未達到這一水平，而且在未來幾年都在保修期內。所以不，8 年很好，我們很高興讓艦隊在接下來的幾年裡稍微老化一點。謝謝，斯蒂芬。請下一個問題。

That comes from Muneeba Kayani at Bank of America.

這來自美國銀行的 Muneeba Kayani。

On Italy, you talked about your market share of 40%. How does Lufthansa potentially taking the stake in ITA impact the Italian market in your view? And then secondly, you talked about the fares in your comments. For the March quarter, should we expect a similar 14% increase that we saw in the December quarter. We've heard from easyJet suggesting higher fare increase for the March quarter.

在意大利，您談到了 40% 的市場份額。在您看來，漢莎航空入股 ITA 對意大利市場有何影響？其次，您在評論中談到了票價。對於 3 月季度，我們是否應該期待與 12 月季度類似的 14% 的增長。我們從 easyJet 那裡獲悉，建議在 3 月季度提高票價。

Yes. Okay. Let me do the first one first. Italy, our market share is actually, I think, is now above 40%. There's been a dramatic withdrawal, I think, in the Italian market of Weeze through this time last year. We're opening bases in Venice, in Warsaw, in Catania, and 1 basin Palermo, all of which they've now closed as a kind of cover for. Now they have switched some of those aircraft into Milan and into Rome, where they appear to be now more intent on linking those the 2 main cities initially with Riyadh, Kuwait City, Reykjavík and all those other exciting medium-haul destinations that Italians never knew they want to go to. But I think there's probably a reasonable growth for them in that and it's a market where they don't have to compete with Ryanair.

是的。好的。讓我先做第一個。意大利，我認為我們的市場份額實際上現在超過 40%。去年這個時候，我認為 Weeze 的意大利市場出現了戲劇性的撤退。我們在威尼斯、華沙、卡塔尼亞和 1 個盆地巴勒莫開設基地，現在他們已經關閉了所有這些基地作為掩護。現在他們已經將其中一些飛機轉移到米蘭和羅馬，他們現在似乎更傾向於將這兩個主要城市與利雅得、科威特城、雷克雅未克和所有其他意大利人從未知道的令人興奮的中程目的地連接起來他們想去。但我認為他們在這方面可能會有合理的增長，而且這是一個他們不必與瑞安航空競爭的市場。

But there is dramatically less capacity on the Italian domestic. And we are actually continuing to grow in those markets. We have this -- so we're adding extra flights into Sicily. We're into Venice. We're adding more aircraft in Naples, in -- we recently -- we're coming close to agreeing airport deal extensions with a number of Castilian and Southern Italian airports, and I think we'll see more growth by us in the Italian marketplace.

但意大利國內的運力卻大大減少。我們實際上正在繼續在這些市場中發展。我們有這個 - 所以我們正在增加飛往西西里島的航班。我們進入了威尼斯。我們在那不勒斯增加了更多的飛機，在——我們最近——我們即將與一些卡斯蒂利亞和意大利南部的機場達成機場協議延期協議，我認為我們會在意大利看到更多的增長市場。

Lufthansa coming in and acquiring ITA, I think, will have no effect whatsoever on that. I think they'll do exactly what Lufthansa have done in every other acquisition of Sabina, Swiss, Austrian, they will run ITA to feed flights and traffic out of Italy into the 2 main hubs, Munich and Frankfurt. There will be no new route growth out of Italy to anywhere. And they will be very happy and content to put up prices and shovels loss of Italians.

我認為，漢莎航空進入並收購 ITA 不會對此產生任何影響。我認為他們會像漢莎航空在收購 Sabina、Swiss 和 Austrian 時所做的那樣，他們將運行 ITA 來為離開意大利的航班和交通提供服務，將其送入慕尼黑和法蘭克福這兩個主要樞紐。從意大利到任何地方都不會有新的航線增長。他們將非常高興並滿足於提高價格並剷除意大利人的損失。

And I think transatlantic and Asian visitors down into Italy using Munich and the Frankfurt hub. I think what they will also try to do, though, is use their lobbying muscle as they have in Germany to try to imposed restrictions or limit the way Italian airports can kind of grow and try to -- they do the usual lobbying games around trying to persuade the Italian Government in some way should protect it or Lufthansa have less competition, more slot restrictions, that all Italian airports should charge the same fees as Rome and Milan which is something they pushed hard after the German market as well, which is 1 of the reasons why the German market has only recovered 70% of its pre-COVID traffic, and German consumers and business are paying much higher airfares.

我認為跨大西洋和亞洲的遊客會使用慕尼黑和法蘭克福樞紐進入意大利。不過，我認為他們也會嘗試做的是利用他們在德國的遊說力量，試圖施加限製或限制意大利機場的發展方式，並嘗試——他們圍繞嘗試進行通常的遊說遊戲以某種方式說服意大利政府應該保護它，否則漢莎航空的競爭更少，航班時刻限制更多，所有意大利機場都應該收取與羅馬和米蘭相同的費用，這也是他們在德國市場之後努力推動的，這是 1德國市場僅恢復了 COVID 前流量的 70%，並且德國消費者和企業支付的機票價格高得多的原因。

So I think the only impact on the Italian market would be Lufthansa lobbying, but there certainly won't be any ITA growth out of that. And we are allocating another, I think we're probably another 15, 16 aircraft into the Italian market this year, continue to grow the domestic markets. We're looking at more capacity in almost all of our Italian airports. And I think we will get to 50% market share in Italy within the next 2 years based on current trends. Maybe Tracey, do you want to give us a question let's be cautious now. I don't think -- I think we should be reasonably cautious on pricing up to March. But what are you seeing there on pricing up to the end of the fourth quarter?

所以我認為對意大利市場的唯一影響將是漢莎航空的遊說，但肯定不會有任何 ITA 增長。我們正在分配另一架飛機，我認為今年我們可能會再向意大利市場投放 15、16 架飛機，繼續發展國內市場。我們正在考慮增加幾乎所有意大利機場的容量。根據目前的趨勢，我認為我們將在未來 2 年內在意大利獲得 50% 的市場份額。也許 Tracey，你想給我們一個問題嗎？現在讓我們保持謹慎。我不認為——我認為我們應該對 3 月份之前的定價保持相當謹慎。但是您對截至第四季度末的定價有何看法？

Yes. I think based on what we've seen already in Q3, I think we see total revenue per passenger coming really to the same kind of percentage levels as they were pre-COVID and I think it's on the basis of what we've seen was a strong new year, which we pretty much January don't, what we're seeing for February midterm looks good, but it's still a lot on what will happen on the enclosure, I think a lot is dependent on.

是的。我認為，根據我們在第三季度已經看到的情況，我認為我們看到每位乘客的總收入真正達到與 COVID 之前相同的百分比水平，我認為這是基於我們所看到的一個強勁的新年，我們一月份幾乎沒有，我們看到的二月份中期看起來不錯，但它仍然在很大程度上取決於外殼上會發生什麼，我認為很多取決於。

I didn't understand. We've gone back to the same as we saw pre-COVID.

我不明白。我們已經回到了 COVID 之前的狀態。

The same percentage levels that we've seen in Q3 of '23.

我們在 23 年第三季度看到的百分比水平相同。

Okay. So we think low double digits.

好的。所以我們認為低兩位數。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And again, I would caution everybody that is subject to there being no adverse COVID, no adverse Ukraine. And as always, when things look is good, no (expletive) Black Swan events that arrive out of nowhere to haunt us. Thanks, Tracey. Next question, please.

好的。再一次，我要提醒所有沒有不利的 COVID 和不利的烏克蘭的人。和往常一樣，當事情看起來不錯時，沒有（咒罵性的）黑天鵝事件無處不在地困擾著我們。謝謝，特蕾西。請下一個問題。

That comes from the line of Sathish Sivakumar at Citi.

這來自花旗銀行的 Sathish Sivakumar 系列。

I got 2 questions here. So firstly, on the load factor, if you look at December came in at 92%. Given the seasonality impact that we normally see in Q4 versus Q3, would you expect the Q4 load factor to come in below Q3? Or what is going to see that uptick into Q4, March quarter? And secondly, on the cost, what has been the initial discussion from ATC on proposed increase in charges for 2022? Those are my 2 questions.

我在這裡有 2 個問題。所以首先，關於載客率，如果你看一下 12 月份的載客率是 92%。考慮到我們通常在第 4 季度和第 3 季度看到的季節性影響，您認為第 4 季度的載客率會低於第 3 季度嗎？或者什麼會看到 3 月季度第四季度的增長？其次，關於成本，ATC 對 2022 年擬議增加收費的初步討論是什麼？這是我的兩個問題。

Okay. Load factor, I wouldn't get into that kind of -- I would expect to see the load factor in Q4 maybe 1 or 2 percentage points behind where it was in Q3. Again, we know Easter in April. Most of what drives the load factor in Q3 is you have a strong October, school midterms in October and then most of Eastern New Year falls into December. But we would never get into a quarterly load factor kind of forecast there. ATC charges are going to be up this year. I'm not again -- Tracey, do you want to give us a figure on that?

好的。負載係數，我不會進入那種 - 我希望看到第四季度的負載係數可能比第三季度低 1 或 2 個百分點。同樣，我們知道四月的複活節。驅動第三季度負荷率的主要原因是你有一個強勁的 10 月，10 月的學校期中考試，然後東部新年的大部分時間都在 12 月。但我們永遠不會在那裡進行季度載客率預測。今年 ATC 收費將會上漲。我不是 - Tracey，你想給我們一個數字嗎？

It's pretty much the same as last year. We'll probably see between route charges and ATC, which can pretty much out of our control, is probably close to the overall passenger.

這與去年幾乎相同。我們可能會在航線收費和 ATC 之間看到，這幾乎不受我們控制，但可能接近整體乘客。

Yes. Okay. What's that in percentage terms roughly? High single digit...

是的。好的。大概是多少百分比？高個位數...

We have to care for some of it goes into route charges, some of it goes into airport charges, the ATC part as go to the airport charge.

我們必須關心其中一些進入航線費用，一些進入機場費用，ATC 部分作為去機場費用。

Okay. Thank you for that. Thanks, Sathish. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝你。謝謝，薩西什。請下一個問題。

That's from Conor Dwyer at Morgan Stanley.

這是來自摩根士丹利的 Conor Dwyer。

You might will be slow to talk about this yet, but on shareholder returns, are you still kind of talking about maybe splitting that between dividends and buybacks in terms of size, should we use what you guys used to do in terms of relative to free cash flow going forward?

你可能會慢慢談論這個，但關於股東回報，你是否還在談論可能在規模方面將股息和回購分開，我們是否應該使用你們過去相對於免費所做的事情未來的現金流？

And in terms of timing, when you do get that net debt back down to about 0, should we kind of be modeling that to be starting pretty much immediately after that? And then also back on the fleet delivery. So you noted you were talking to Boeing again. And I'd just like to hear what are the material benefits that you having in Max are the partiality with MAX still significant? And would you consider an Airbus order or to your point, if there's pilot pinching in Europe as a result of the Airbus? Would that keep you away from that going that way?

就時間而言，當您確實將淨債務降到大約 0 時，我們是否應該將其建模為在那之後幾乎立即開始？然後也回到艦隊交付。所以你注意到你再次與波音公司交談。而且我想听聽你們對Max有什麼物質上的好處，對MAX的偏愛還很大嗎？如果空客導致歐洲飛行員緊縮，你會考慮空客訂單嗎？或者就你的觀點而言？那會讓你遠離那種方式嗎？

Thanks, Conor. Welcome to the call. Good to see Morgan Stanley back covering both of the sector again. Shareholder returns. Look, we have huge draws on cash this year. We have a bond repaying of EUR 850 million in March. There's a EUR 750 million in August, and we have subject to Boeing deliveries, we think next year, we're probably about EUR 2.3 billion, EUR 2.4 billion in CapEx.

謝謝，康納。歡迎來電。很高興看到摩根士丹利再次覆蓋這兩個行業。股東回報。看，我們今年有大量現金提取。我們在 3 月份償還了 8.5 億歐元的債券。 8 月份有 7.5 億歐元，我們受到波音交付的影響，我們認為明年我們的資本支出可能約為 23 億歐元，24 億歐元。

So I don't foresee any shareholder returns this year. But we do expect with reasonable trading this year to get to 0 net debt by the end of this fiscal year. So by -- we're at 0 net debt by March 2024. I think we will be looking at some shareholder returns at that time. I think shareholders who did put their hands in their pockets unlike kind of Heathrow shareholders, Ryanair shareholders, we had raised EUR 400 million from shareholders during COVID that was critical to what raising additional bond financing, getting through COVID without any kind of state aid unlike our competitors.

所以我預計今年不會有任何股東回報。但我們確實預計，在今年合理的交易情況下，到本財年末，淨債務將達到 0。因此，到 2024 年 3 月，我們的淨債務為零。我認為屆時我們將關註一些股東回報。我認為那些確實掏腰包的股東不像希思羅機場的股東，瑞安航空的股東，我們在 COVID 期間從股東那裡籌集了 4 億歐元，這對於籌集額外的債券融資至關重要，在沒有任何國家援助的情況下度過 COVID 不像我們的競爭對手。

And I think we're committed firstly, to restoring the pay and agreeing pay increase with our people. Secondly, to keeping fares low for our customers. But then once all that's done and we can see a way clear to having a 0 net debt position again on the balance sheet, then we will return to shareholder returns.

我認為我們首先致力於恢復薪酬並與我們的員工同意加薪。其次，為我們的客戶保持低票價。但是，一旦所有這些都完成了，我們就能清楚地看到資產負債表上的淨債務頭寸再次為零，那麼我們將回歸股東回報。

But it will be -- we're looking at probably the spring of 2024 before we start to consider that. I think in future shareholder returns, we'll be more modest. I don't think we'll do big buyback. I think we're looking at modest dividends on, hopefully, on an annualized basis. If earnings and cash flows allow, I think, the one thing going forward is that we will have a -- no matter what happens, even if we do another order with Boeing, the rate of CapEx going forward will be smaller because the amount of aircraft, the net fleet additions will be smaller going forward in a period from FY '27 onwards.

但它會——我們可能會在 2024 年春天開始考慮之前。我認為在未來的股東回報中，我們會更加謙虛。我認為我們不會進行大規模回購。我認為我們希望按年率計算適度的股息。如果收益和現金流允許，我認為，未來的一件事是——無論發生什麼，即使我們與波音公司再下一份訂單，未來的資本支出率也會降低，因為飛機，從 27 財年開始的一段時間內，機隊淨增加量將減少。

I expect us to be growing at kind of 4% or 5% a year, not 10% a year. And hopefully, that will allow us to have a more consistent dividend stream for our shareholders. Also, we're in a rising interest rate environment, I think shareholders will welcome and appreciate a dividend stream from Ryanair, but I don't see us doing large share buybacks in the future. They've proven difficult in the past. And to make them effective, I think the much better way of returning some -- giving our shares to some reasonable return would be modest dividend stream going forward.

我希望我們每年增長 4% 或 5%，而不是每年 10%。希望這將使我們能夠為股東提供更穩定的股息流。此外，我們處於利率上升的環境中，我認為股東會歡迎並欣賞瑞安航空的股息流，但我認為我們未來不會進行大量股票回購。他們在過去被證明是困難的。為了使它們有效，我認為更好的回報方式——讓我們的股票獲得一些合理的回報將是未來適度的股息流。

Fleet deliveries going forward. Look, again, I think I've dealt with the Boeing side of the house we look at an Airbus order, yes, we would, again, like I've always been entirely opportunistic when it comes to aircraft. We would buy whichever aircraft is cheaper Airbus to have a much longer order book than Boeing. Boeing have obviously been disrupted by the grounding of the MAX for a number of years. Airbus have capitalized on that and the fact that due to the trade war between the Americans and the Chinese, Airbus is a beneficiary of Chinese aircraft orders at the moment. The Boeing order book is much weaker.

艦隊交付向前推進。再看一次，我想我已經處理過波音方面的問題，我們看空客的訂單，是的，我們會再一次，就像我在飛機方面一直完全投機取巧一樣。我們會購買比波音更便宜的飛機，以獲得比波音更長的訂單。多年來，波音顯然因 MAX 停飛而受到影響。空客利用了這一點，以及由於中美之間的貿易戰，空客目前是中國飛機訂單的受益者。波音訂單薄弱得多。

Boeing does need to, I think, signed up a number of -- get some orders in the books for the next couple of years. So it's unlikely. I mean, everything we see at the moment is Airbus are pricing not materially. That's good for us and that most of our competitors in Europe are Airbus operators and paying much higher prices for aircraft than we are for our Boeing orders at the moment.

我認為，波音公司確實需要簽署一些——在未來幾年的賬簿上獲得一些訂單。所以不太可能。我的意思是，我們目前看到的一切都是空客的定價並不重要。這對我們有利，而且我們在歐洲的大多數競爭對手都是空中客車運營商，他們為飛機支付的價格比我們目前為波音訂單支付的價格高得多。

But -- and again, looking at the kind of the second hand or the leasing opportunities, we jumped on the opportunity there to extend '24, the Lauda leases from 2024 to 2028 because they were fee to do so. I couldn't care less whether we operate a Boeing or an Airbus aircraft, if there's a material cost advantage per seat, then we would order that aircraft.

但是——再一次，看看二手貨或租賃機會的種類，我們抓住機會將 24 年的勞達租期從 2024 年延長到 2028 年，因為這樣做是收費的。我不在乎我們運營的是波音飛機還是空客飛機，如果每個座位有物質成本優勢，那麼我們就會訂購那架飛機。

I don't believe that there would be -- would that decision be affected by some pilot plant within the Airbus fleet around Europe. Honestly, Europe, and I think I've been saying this for a number of years, the capacity growth in Europe is stabilizing over the next number of years. You don't have a lot of new entrees, no new entrants. There's not interest cost of financing arising -- there will be no startup low-fare carriers because I think Ryanair is the barrier to entry in most European airports. Consolidation, I think you see Lufthansa eyeing up ITA. I think IAG will do a deal with TAP before the year is out. And then I do believe that easyJet and Weeze, we get marked up as well.

我不相信會有 - 這個決定會受到歐洲空客機隊內的一些試點工廠的影響。老實說，歐洲，我想我已經說了很多年了，歐洲的產能增長在未來幾年內將趨於穩定。你沒有很多新主菜，沒有新進入者。不會產生融資的利息成本——不會有初創的低票價航空公司，因為我認為瑞安航空是進入大多數歐洲機場的障礙。合併，我想你看到漢莎航空盯上了 ITA。我認為 IAG 會在年底前與 TAP 達成協議。然後我相信 easyJet 和 Weeze，我們也得到了標記。

And I think you're looking at a much more mature market for air travel in Europe in the next 4 or 5 years, where not unlike North America for the last 10 years, it's been reasonably stable capacity and a bit more pricing or upward pressure on pricing within that marketplace. Europe has been the beneficiary of 20 years of deregulation, very low-cost airfares. I mean the airfares across Europe, thanks to Ryanair, are generally significantly cheaper than trading fares from the airports into the city centers.

而且我認為你正在尋找未來 4 或 5 年內歐洲更加成熟的航空旅行市場，與過去 10 年的北美不同，它的運力相當穩定，定價或上漲壓力略高關於該市場內的定價。歐洲一直是 20 年放鬆管制和極低票價的受益者。我的意思是，得益於瑞安航空，整個歐洲的機票價格通常比從機場到市中心的交易機票便宜得多。

But I think that we're coming to the end of that kind of madcap capacity expansion and therefore, a much more sensible industry outlook in Europe for the next number of years. But in that, I don't think it makes much difference whether it's Airbus or Boeing. There won't be a shortage of pilots around Europe for the next 5, 10 years. And certainly, if you look at the kind of growth in trading we've seen in our cadet programs over the last couple of years, there is no shortage of people willing to sign up to become pilots, recognize that it's a very well-paid job. They do -- they are highly skilled, but they're certainly not overworked with the kind of restrictions of 900 flight hours a year. It's still an average of 18 hours a week. But they're well trained. They're well paid, and we're very proud of the pilots, the crews we have in Ryanair. Next question, please. Thanks, Conor.

但我認為我們即將結束這種瘋狂的產能擴張，因此，未來幾年歐洲的行業前景將更加明智。但在這一點上，我認為無論是空客還是波音都沒有太大區別。未來 5 年、10 年，歐洲不會缺少飛行員。當然，如果你看看過去幾年我們在學員計劃中看到的貿易增長情況，就會發現願意報名成為飛行員的人不乏其人，認識到這是一個非常高薪的職位工作。他們確實如此——他們技術嫻熟，但他們肯定不會因每年 900 飛行小時的限製而過度勞累。它仍然是平均每週 18 小時。但他們訓練有素。他們的薪水很高，我們為瑞安航空的飛行員和機組人員感到非常自豪。請下一個問題。謝謝，康納。

That's from Mark Simpson at Goodbody.

這是來自 Goodbody 的 Mark Simpson。

Just 1 broader subject matter. ESG had a very successful conference in Dublin in December, probably more a question for Tom. Just wondering what sort of key developments we could expect this year to further that? Is that kind of additional settle offtake sample? And then a second part, a second question. Are you as yet seeing cost benefits of this improvement in terms of negotiation with airports in order to kind of further embed your unit cost advantage? Or do you think that will become an increasing feature in future years.

只有 1 個更廣泛的主題。 ESG 於 12 月在都柏林舉行了一次非常成功的會議，這可能對 Tom 來說更像是一個問題。只是想知道我們今年可以期待什麼樣的關鍵發展來進一步推動這一點？是那種額外結算的樣本？然後是第二部分，第二個問題。在與機場的談判中，您是否已經看到這種改進的成本效益，以進一步嵌入您的單位成本優勢？或者您認為這將在未來幾年成為一個日益增長的特徵。

Okay. Tom, do you want to take the first one? I'll give an update on our ESG and SAF.

好的。湯姆，你想要第一個嗎？我將更新我們的 ESG 和 SAF。

Are look, I think the 1 being we did November is the retrofit of the winglet with 1.5% saving on the NG fleet. But I think as we roll forward, looking at more staff offtake MOUs in a couple of more key regions over this year. And obviously, game changer aircraft coming in as well. There's a benefit over the next 12 months, but to be close to the retrofit of the winglets and the SAF agreement.

看，我認為我們 11 月所做的 1 是小翼的改造，NG 機隊節省了 1.5%。但我認為，隨著我們向前推進，今年將在更多關鍵地區尋找更多員工承購諒解備忘錄。顯然，改變遊戲規則的飛機也會出現。在接下來的 12 個月內會有好處，但要接近小翼的改造和 SAF 協議。

Great. I think cost benefit efforts, I mean, look, we are seeing across Europe, we are in active negotiations with a huge number of airports who have suffered dramatic traffic declines as a result of COVID either their incumbent carriers that failed or their incumbent carriers have cut capacity and are not restoring. I would point in particular to the airports in Italy, airports in Central Europe where Weeze are coating capacity or not growing -- is growing. We have a huge number of Weeze customer airports who are now talking to us, I think recognizing that Weeze are not growing or not able to grow in their markets.

偉大的。我認為成本效益的努力，我的意思是，看，我們在整個歐洲看到，我們正在與大量機場進行積極談判，這些機場由於 COVID 而導致交通量急劇下降，要么是他們的現有承運人倒閉了，要么是他們的現有承運人已經削減產能並且沒有恢復。我要特別指出意大利的機場、中歐的機場，Weeze 的塗層能力正在增長或沒有增長——正在增長。我們有大量 Weeze 客戶機場正在與我們交談，我認為認識到 Weeze 在他們的市場中沒有增長或無法增長。

The U.K. has been a particular source of growth as well. I mean, we've done very good extension. The core deal, which is with Lufthansa, was done during COVID, now around 2029. But across UK, we're seeing meaningful growth in markets in Birmingham, Manchester, Bristol, Belfast, Glasgow, Edinburgh, all of whom are struggling to recover their pre-COVID traffic and are turning to Ryanair to deliver that growth. In Spain as well, we've seen a delivery. Ed, do you want to add any...

英國也是一個特殊的增長來源。我的意思是，我們已經做了很好的擴展。與漢莎航空的核心交易是在 COVID 期間完成的，現在大約在 2029 年左右。但在整個英國，我們看到伯明翰、曼徹斯特、布里斯托爾、貝爾法斯特、格拉斯哥、愛丁堡的市場出現了有意義的增長，所有這些市場都在努力復甦他們在 COVID 之前的流量，並正在轉向瑞安航空來實現這種增長。在西班牙，我們也看到了交付。埃德，你想添加任何...

Like if you see what's happening in Spain, particularly in post recovery there, whereby the Spanish government, there's no doubt are leaning on in with their pushing then charges. But like Aena as ever, are already signaling that they're going to increase them by 2027. But there are -- when you look at what the Spanish government are saying, they're saying, look, Ryanair is particularly valuable in the regions. Not just for tourism, but for connectivity. So you having that pressure downwards.

就像您看到西班牙正在發生的事情一樣，尤其是在那裡的複蘇後，毫無疑問，西班牙政府正在推動他們的收費。但就像 Aena 一如既往，已經表示他們將在 2027 年之前增加它們。但是有 - 當你看看西班牙政府所說的話時，他們說，看，瑞安航空在這些地區特別有價值.不僅僅是為了旅遊業，也是為了連通性。所以你有向下的壓力。

You see what's happened in Portugal, where we have had a sort of a -- where the regulator intervened on there. And we saw reductions in charges at Faro and Porto and Ryanair, we pitch up and put extra aircraft in those places, but also then you see in places like Madeira and the Azores and Lisbon charges rising where there's no growth going into those. So I think it's happening at not just at an airport level, but also at a national level. But you do see some outliers there in airports that are just hoping that things are going to bounce back and have no idea where that's going to come from because the legacy carriers are not coming back.

您會看到葡萄牙發生了什麼，我們在那裡進行了某種監管機構的干預。我們看到法魯、波爾圖和瑞安航空的收費有所下降，我們在這些地方增加了飛機，但你也會看到馬德拉、亞速爾群島和里斯本等地方的收費上升，而這些地方沒有增長。所以我認為這不僅發生在機場層面，也發生在國家層面。但是你確實在機場看到一些異常值，它們只是希望事情會反彈並且不知道它會從哪裡來，因為傳統航空公司不會回來。

easyJet is not growing and Weeze has moved further east. So I think there's still a shakeout to come on some of those airports as well, whereby they'll realize that the traffic is coming back, and they're going to have to stimulate or incentivize Ryanair to come in and fill those capacity gaps.

easyJet 沒有增長，Weeze 已經向東移動。因此，我認為其中一些機場仍將面臨重組，他們將意識到交通正在恢復，他們將不得不刺激或激勵瑞安航空進入並填補這些容量缺口。

Okay. Thanks, Eddie. Next question, please.

好的。謝謝，艾迪。請下一個問題。

That's from the line of Johannes Braun at Stifel.

這是來自 Stifel 的 Johannes Braun 的系列。

Just 1 question from me. You mentioned those impressive market share gains in many European markets, Italy, Spain, U.K., Ireland. Obviously, 2 of the largest markets in Europe are still missing in that business, France and Germany. And obviously, totally aware that you allocate capacity in, let's say, opportunistic way. Those 2 markets are obviously high cost, but they are also high-yielding markets. So especially in Germany with Lufthansa being so restrictive on capacity.

我只有 1 個問題。你提到了在許多歐洲市場、意大利、西班牙、英國、愛爾蘭的令人印象深刻的市場份額增長。顯然，該業務仍然缺少歐洲最大的兩個市場，即法國和德國。顯然，完全意識到您以機會主義的方式分配容量。這兩個市場顯然是高成本的，但也是高收益的市場。因此，尤其是在德國，漢莎航空對運力的限制如此之大。

I mean, you mentioned that. I'm still wondering when we are kind of nearing that tipping point when the high yield environment in those markets would compensate for the higher costs. And therefore, it would make it worthwhile for you to start allocating more growth to those markets.

我的意思是，你提到了這一點。我仍然想知道當這些市場的高收益環境將彌補更高的成本時，我們何時會接近那個臨界點。因此，開始為這些市場分配更多增長將是值得的。

Yes, good question, Johannes. 2 points I'd make on that. Firstly, we allocate capacity where the airports are in those airports who want most, which is the airports who are going to kind of bid for it with efficient growth incentive schemes. And at the moment, that's taking place in bigger markets like Italy, Austria, Poland, Ireland, to be fair to Dublin Airport, who I've been a long-term critical, I had a very good COVID recovery scheme last year, and they're working on an extension of that into this year.

是的，問得好，約翰。我會在這上面加 2 分。首先，我們將容量分配給那些最需要機場的機場，這些機場將通過有效的增長激勵計劃來競標。目前，這在意大利、奧地利、波蘭、愛爾蘭等更大的市場正在發生，為了公平起見，我一直對都柏林機場持批評態度，去年我有一個非常好的 COVID 恢復計劃，而且他們正在努力將其延長到今年。

And in the U.K. as well, these are major markets where we are taking extraordinary lump sum market share gain. France, we're growing in, but France has always been a particularly peculiar market. It's a market that there isn't much outbound travel. We have a -- we've increased Buzz, Weeze and Bovey, Marseille to lose. But it's too small to put in there. And our market share gain, while we're gaining market share, it's small. Not that -- we've no huge desire. I think ones to do something significant in Paris or domestic France, you're not going to have a significant market share in the French market. And I have no desire to be in either Charles De Gaulle Airport or Orly or in the French domestic marketplace.

在英國也是如此，這些是我們正在獲得非凡一次性市場份額增長的主要市場。法國，我們正在成長，但法國一直是一個特別奇特的市場。這是一個沒有太多出境游的市場。我們有一個 - 我們增加了 Buzz、Weeze 和 Bovey、Marseille 的損失。但是它太小了，放不進去。我們的市場份額增加了，雖然我們正在增加市場份額，但它很小。不是那樣——我們沒有太大的願望。我認為在巴黎或法國國內做一些重要的事情，你不會在法國市場上佔有重要的市場份額。我不想去戴高樂機場、奧利機場或法國國內市場。

Germany is much more interesting. I mean, we have -- you see the kind of the outgo date, what happens as a result of the lobbying might of Germany, the great German National Champion recipient of EUR 13 billion in state aid because there was a bit of a COVID crisis. So the German government immediately gives them everything they want.

德國更有趣。我的意思是，我們已經 - 你看到了那種結束日期，由於德國的遊說力量而發生的事情，偉大的德國國家冠軍獲得了 130 億歐元的國家援助，因為有一點 COVID 危機.於是德國政府立即給了他們想要的一切。

The competition rules are suspended for all German M&A. If Lufthansa wants to buy something in Germany, they're way through Phase 1, no remedies nothing at all. And what you get now is in the last 2 years, easyJet has significantly reversed out of Berlin. We reduced capacity in Berlin. We closed the base in Frankfurt Main. And for no reason then Frankfurt Main were unable to extend the 5-year low-cost growth deal we had with them because they haven't managed to open the low-cost T3 in Frankfurt.

所有德國併購均暫停競爭規則。如果漢莎航空想在德國購買東西，他們已經過了第一階段，沒有任何補救措施。你現在得到的是在過去 2 年裡，easyJet 在柏林之外發生了重大逆轉。我們減少了柏林的產能。我們關閉了法蘭克福美因基地。法蘭克福美因河畔無緣無故無法延長我們與他們達成的 5 年低成本增長協議，因為他們未能在法蘭克福開設低成本 T3 航站樓。

I think what you'll see in Germany this year is traffic will remain at about 70%, 75% pre-COVID. A number of the bigger German airports with a notable extension of the tool of Straits of Hormuz, Munich and Frankfurt will see meaningful traffic declines. And I think what will happen is after a year or 18 months of that, the German airports will finally -- some German airports will wake up and realize that Lufthansa is never going to grow at their airport and they'll need someone like Ryanair in there to grow. They will come back to a sacrosanct. But it is very difficult in Germany for airports to do that because German rules and regulations, which are largely written by Lufthansa, make it difficult for airports that are underserved to discount and to engage in low cost or in growth incentive schemes.

我認為今年您將在德國看到的是流量將保持在 70% 左右，在 COVID 之前為 75%。霍爾木茲海峽、慕尼黑和法蘭克福的一些較大的德國機場將出現顯著的客流量下降。我認為，一年或 18 個月後，德國機場將最終——一些德國機場會醒悟過來，意識到漢莎航空永遠不會在他們的機場發展壯大，他們需要像瑞安航空這樣的公司在那裡成長。他們將回歸神聖不可侵犯。但在德國，機場很難做到這一點，因為主要由漢莎航空制定的德國規章制度使得服務不足的機場難以打折並參與低成本或增長激勵計劃。

But it will come because the market will continue to suffer, German consumers will continue to suffer because we've got to keep being screwed by Lufthansa for extraordinarily high airfares. But like if the German suffer for 1 year or 18 months, that's not the worst thing in the world. At that stage, we'll have completed our growth in Italy. We'll have based on our growth in Spain and others, and we will have additional aircraft. And we'll probably return to looking at growing in the German marketplace.

但它會到來，因為市場將繼續受苦，德國消費者將繼續受苦，因為我們必須繼續被漢莎航空以極高的機票價格搞砸。但是，如果德國人遭受 1 年或 18 個月的痛苦，那還不是世界上最糟糕的事情。到那個階段，我們將完成在意大利的發展。我們將基於我們在西班牙和其他國家的增長，我們將擁有更多的飛機。我們可能會重新關注在德國市場的增長。

But for the moment, we're very happy to leave it to Lufthansa and allow Lufthansa to do what it does best, which is crew German consumers wherever they have a monopoly. And I think in 12 or 18 months' time, that will encourage more German airports or a change in the German regulations that will be much more outward looking and a lot less about protecting Lufthansa at some kind of national champion of high fares. But there's lots of growth out there.

但就目前而言，我們很高興將其交給漢莎航空，讓漢莎航空做它最擅長的事情，即在壟斷的地方為德國消費者提供機組人員。而且我認為在 12 或 18 個月的時間裡，這將鼓勵更多的德國機場或改變德國的法規，這些法規將更加外向，而不是保護漢莎航空成為某種高票價的全國冠軍。但是那裡有很多增長。

And we certainly -- Central Europe is a market that is growing very strongly for us. It did get disrupted, and it was the market that was most disrupted by the invasion of Ukraine. We are very committed to returning to Ukraine as soon as it is safe to do so. We're hiring quite a number of Ukraine pilots and cabin crews specifically so that we can reopen, we can restore basis in Ukraine if or whenever it's safe to do so when hopefully, the Russians are successfully repulsed from Ukraine. But we have far more growth opportunities that we have in front of us the next 4 or 5 years. We could readily deploy all of the 130 additional aircraft we are taking from Boeing over the next 3 years this summer if we needed to. We don't, obviously.

我們當然 - 中歐是一個對我們來說增長非常強勁的市場。它確實受到了乾擾，而受烏克蘭入侵影響最大的是市場。我們非常致力於在安全的情況下盡快返回烏克蘭。我們正在專門僱用相當多的烏克蘭飛行員和機組人員，以便我們可以重新開放，我們可以在安全的情況下或在安全的情況下恢復在烏克蘭的基地，希望俄羅斯人能成功地從烏克蘭被擊退。但未來 4 或 5 年，我們面前的增長機會要多得多。如果需要，我們可以在今年夏天的未來 3 年內輕鬆部署我們從波音公司購買的所有 130 架額外飛機。顯然，我們沒有。

And where there's more and more airports coming to us looking or coming to Eddie on the new routes team, looking for additional growth. So France and Germany can wait. And while they're waiting, I think they will sow the seeds of a much more favorable growth environment for Ryanair expansion there in the next couple of years once they've had 12 or 18 months of stagnation or high fares. Thanks, Johannes. Next question, please.

在新航線團隊中，越來越多的機場來找我們或來找 Eddie，尋求額外的增長。所以法國和德國可以等。在他們等待的同時，我認為一旦他們經歷了 12 或 18 個月的停滯或高票價，他們將在未來幾年為瑞安航空在那裡的擴張播下更有利的增長環境的種子。謝謝，約翰內斯。請下一個問題。

And we have time for 1 further question that comes from the line of Harry Gowers at JPMorgan.

我們有時間再回答 1 個來自摩根大通 Harry Gowers 的問題。

Just a quick 1 on ancillaries, if I can. So obviously, it continues to go well. So any early thinking on how much year-on-year growth, if you can maybe squeeze out of ancillary per pass in year-end to March '24?

如果可以的話，只需快速了解一下輔助設備。很明顯，它繼續進展順利。因此，如果您可以在年底到 24 年 3 月期間擠出輔助每次通行證，那麼任何關於同比增長多少的早期思考？

Yes, I wouldn't get in too much detail on it. I don't expect there'll be much additional growth in ancillaries on a per passenger basis. We expect ancillaries to continue to grow in line or maybe 1 or 2 percentage points ahead of traffic growth for the next year or 2.

是的，我不會詳細介紹它。我預計每位乘客的輔助設施不會有太大的額外增長。我們預計輔助服務將繼續保持一致增長，或者可能比明年或兩年的流量增長高出 1 或 2 個百分點。

We are still seeing customers switching into buying those services like the reserved seats priority boarding. We're certainly beginning to see the start of meaningful growth in duty-free sales on all the routes to and from the U.K. I think that's been an area where a number of airports who are very focused on adding U.K. routes or connecting U.K. routes because the airports can get advantage of duty free. It's 1 thing I'm always made that when an airport like Heathrow is there looking for further cost increases.

我們仍然看到客戶轉而購買這些服務，例如預留座位優先登機。我們當然開始看到往返英國的所有航線的免稅銷售開始有意義的增長。我認為這是一個非常專注於增加英國航線或連接英國航線的機場的地區，因為機場可以免稅。當像希思羅機場這樣的機場尋求進一步增加成本時，我總是這樣做的一件事。

John Holland-Kaye is very vocal on everything except the benefit he derives from these Duty Free sales at the moment. But thankfully, Heathrow is not an airport which we operate. But it's certainly, I think, going to be -- so we would hope to see some additional growth in onboard Duty Free sales on the 40% of routes we operate that operate to and from the U.K.

John Holland-Kaye 對所有事情都直言不諱，除了他目前從這些免稅銷售中獲得的好處。但值得慶幸的是，希思羅機場不是我們運營的機場。但我認為，這肯定會——所以我們希望在我們運營的 40% 往返英國的航線上看到機上免稅品銷售額的額外增長。

But other that, I don't think there's anything significant in ancillaries for the next year or 2. And certainly, when we finalize the budget between now and the end of March, we would hope to see traffic grow 10% in the next 12 months and ancillaries probably add another 1% or 2% on top of that. It will be a fairly modest budget for ancillary growth. Thanks, Harry. Next question, please.

但除此之外，我認為明年或兩年的輔助設施不會有任何重大意義。當然，當我們最終確定從現在到 3 月底的預算時，我們希望看到未來 12 年的流量增長 10%月和輔助設備可能在此基礎上再增加 1% 或 2%。對於輔助增長來說，這將是一個相當適中的預算。謝謝，哈利。請下一個問題。

As there are no further questions, I'll hand back to Michael for the closing comments.

由於沒有其他問題，我將交還給 Michael 作為結束評論。

Okay, folks. So thank you very much for taking part of the call. Again, I think we've had a strong Q3. Q4 will be loss-making, which is always helpful. I think we just take some of the irrational exuberance out of this. We are growing strongly. I think Easter and the summer looks good. If I could leave you with any 2 parting, 1 parting thought. And that is I would refer you to the slide for -- investor slide presentation. We put them on the website.

好的，伙計們。非常感謝您參加電話會議。同樣，我認為我們的第三季度表現強勁。 Q4會虧損，這總是有幫助的。我認為我們只是從中消除了一些非理性的繁榮。我們正在強勁增長。我認為複活節和夏天看起來不錯。如果我能給你留下任何 2 個離別，1 個離別思想。那就是我會向您推薦幻燈片 - 投資者幻燈片演示。我們把它們放在網站上。

Look at Page 4, which is the unit cost gap between us and every other airline in Europe and how that has materially widened during COVID. I think that widening -- that cost cap will widen further in the next 12 months, particularly as the competition are paying higher financing and lease costs for their operating leased aircraft.

請看第 4 頁，這是我們與歐洲所有其他航空公司之間的單位成本差距，以及在 COVID 期間這種差距如何大幅擴大。我認為這種擴大 - 成本上限將在未來 12 個月內進一步擴大，特別是因為競爭對手正在為其經營租賃的飛機支付更高的融資和租賃成本。

And the other side to look at is Slide 9, which is the very strong market share gains. We will continue, we think, to take significant market share. We're going to add between 45 and 51 aircraft in the summer of 2023 in a marketplace where nobody else is adding any capacity. Yes, Weeze are taking some aircraft deliveries. But more -- a majority of that is being diverted towards serving routes into the Middle East, which is a market in which we don't compete.

另一方面要看的是 Slide 9，這是非常強勁的市場份額增長。我們認為，我們將繼續佔據重要的市場份額。我們將在 2023 年夏天在一個沒有其他人增加任何容量的市場中增加 45 到 51 架飛機。是的，Weeze 正在接受一些飛機交付。但更多 - 其中大部分被轉移到服務進入中東的航線，這是一個我們不競爭的市場。

And as long as there are no Black Swan events and there is a reasonably strong recovery or transatlantic traffic and Asian traffic into Europe in the summer of 2023, then I would be modestly hopeful that we will see a strong first half of FY '24. Easter will be in Q1. We would hope to see a reasonably strong trading environment into Q2.

只要沒有黑天鵝事件，並且在 2023 年夏季有相當強勁的複蘇或跨大西洋交通和進入歐洲的亞洲交通，那麼我會謙虛地希望我們將看到 24 財年上半年的強勁表現。復活節將在第一季度。我們希望在第二季度看到一個相當強勁的交易環境。

As long as it's not disrupted by French and German, ATC, we will be continuing to add capacity. We'll be continuing to keep fares low or significantly lower than any competitor because we're the airline delivering growth. And we would hope that, that will result in a second year of strong operating profit for Ryanair in the next 12 months. If it does, we will then be able to fund the pay increases we're committed to with our crews, our pilots and cabin crew. We will pay down the debt, the bonds in March and in August. We would hope to get very close to 0 net debt by March 2024. And then you have my word speaking as a large shareholder, that we will be addressing shareholder returns in the spring of 2024 as our priority.

只要它不受法國和德國 ATC 的干擾，我們就會繼續增加容量。我們將繼續保持低於或遠低於任何競爭對手的票價，因為我們是實現增長的航空公司。我們希望，這將在未來 12 個月內為瑞安航空帶來第二年的強勁營業利潤。如果是這樣，我們將能夠為我們承諾的機組人員、飛行員和機組人員的加薪提供資金。我們將在 3 月和 8 月償還債務、債券。我們希望到 2024 年 3 月能夠實現非常接近於零的淨債務。然後我作為大股東向您保證，我們將在 2024 年春季將股東回報作為我們的首要任務。

Thank you very much, everybody. And Neil is doing a couple of investor meetings in London. I think he's in London and Frankfurt and Paris in the next 3 days. If anybody would like a meeting or to attend any one of the group meetings that Citi and Davy's are kindly hosting, please contact us through Citi or Davy that we try and put you in. Otherwise, anybody wants to come over here and meet with us in the next couple of months, we'll be happy to see you here in Dublin. And hopefully, we can avoid any Black Swans or any disruption to trading, not just for us, but for the rest of the industry, I think after 3 years of COVID and then the Ukraine invasion, this is an industry that deserves 1 or 2 disruption-free trading years.

非常感謝大家。尼爾正在倫敦召開幾次投資者會議。我認為他在接下來的 3 天內會在倫敦、法蘭克福和巴黎。如果有人想參加會議或參加 Citi 和 Davy 主辦的任何一次小組會議，請通過 Citi 或 Davy 聯繫我們，我們會盡力安排您參加。否則，任何人都想過來與我們會面在接下來的幾個月裡，我們很高興在都柏林見到你。希望我們可以避免任何黑天鵝事件或任何交易中斷，不僅對我們而言，而且對整個行業而言，我認為在經歷了 3 年的 COVID 和烏克蘭入侵之後，這個行業值得 1 或 2無中斷交易年。

Thanks very much, everybody. Hope to see you all soon, and thank you.

非常感謝大家。希望很快見到你們，謝謝你們。

This now concludes the conference. Thank you all very much for attending. You may now disconnect your lines. .

會議到此結束。非常感謝大家的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。 .