RH (RH) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon. My name is Krista, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Second Quarter 2023 RH Q&A Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Allison Malkin of ICR. You may begin your conference.

下午好。我叫克里斯塔，今天我將擔任你們的會議接線員。在此，我歡迎大家參加 2023 年第二季度 RH 問答電話會議。 （操作員指示）我現在將會議轉交給 ICR 的艾莉森·馬爾金 (Allison Malkin)。您可以開始您的會議了。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our Second Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Preston, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的 2023 財年第二季度收益電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼首席執行官加里·弗里德曼 (Gary Friedman)；和首席財務官傑克·普雷斯頓。

Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about our outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our press release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在開始之前，我想提醒您注意我們的法律免責聲明，即我們今天將做出聯邦證券法含義內的某些前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們業務前景的聲明以及我們新聞中引用的其他事項今天發布的版本。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。

Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our press release issued today for more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及今天發布的新聞稿，了解可能影響我們結果的風險因素的更詳細描述。另請注意，這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見，我們不承擔根據新信息或未來事件修改或公開發布這些前瞻性陳述的任何修改結果的義務。

Also, during this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in today's financial results press release. A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.rh.com.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會討論非公認會計原則財務措施，這些措施調整我們的公認會計原則結果以消除某些項目的影響。您將在今天的財務業績新聞稿中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多信息以及這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 指標的調節表。我們網站 ir.rh.com 的投資者關係部分也提供本次電話會議的現場直播。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

這樣，我會將電話轉給加里。

Thank you. Let me begin with our letter to our people, partners and shareholders. Revenues of $800 million and adjusted operating margin of 22.2% (sic) [20.2%] exceeded our guidance for the second quarter due to a $25 million revenue benefit from faster-than-expected deliveries, and it shifted for approximately $40 million of advertising costs from Q2 to Q3, reflecting the later mailing of our RH Interiors Sourcebook. We are raising the low end of our revenue guidance for the year and now expect revenue in the range of $3.04 billion to $3.1 billion versus our prior outlook of $3 billion to $3.1 billion, and are maintaining our outlook for adjusted operating margin of 14.5% to 15.5%.

謝謝。讓我首先致函我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東。收入為8 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為22.2%（原文如此）[20.2%]，超出了我們對第二季度的指導，原因是交付速度快於預期，帶來了2500 萬美元的收入收益，並且廣告費用減少了約4000 萬美元從第二季度到第三季度，反映了我們 RH Interiors Sourcebook 的後期郵寄。我們正在上調今年收入指引的下限，目前預計收入將在30.4 億美元至31 億美元之間，而之前的預期為30 億美元至31 億美元，並維持調整後營業利潤率14.5% 至14.5% 的預期。 15.5%。

We continue to expect the luxury housing market and broader economy to remain challenging throughout fiscal 2023 and into next year as mortgage rates continue to trend at 20-year highs and the current outlook for rates to remain unchanged until the second quarter of 2024.

我們仍然預計，由於抵押貸款利率繼續維持在20 年來的高位，且目前的利率前景在2024 年第二季度之前都將保持不變，因此豪華住房市場和更廣泛的經濟在整個2023 財年和明年仍將面臨挑戰。

The company repurchased 3.7 million shares in the second quarter at an average price of $325.65, representing approximately 17% of the total shares outstanding at the beginning of the second quarter.

該公司第二季度回購了370萬股股票，平均價格為325.65美元，約佔第二季度初流通股總數的17%。

Product elevation. We recently mailed our new 604-page RH Interiors Sourcebook, and while it's too early to read the response with only 40% of the mailing in-home this week. The early indications do look promising. We continue to expect our business trends to inflect in the second half of this year with the mailing of our RH Contemporary Sourcebook in late October and our RH Modern Sourcebook in early January, as well as the refresh of our galleries over the next several quarters. We believe our inflection point will peak in the first half of 2024 as our new collections fully ramp and we begin another cycle of Sourcebook mailings, completely transforming and refreshing the assortment across the entire brand over a 12-month period.

產品標高。我們最近郵寄了新的 604 頁 RH Interiors Sourcebook，雖然現在閱讀回復還為時過早，但本週只有 40% 的郵件是在家中郵寄的。早期跡象確實看起來很有希望。我們繼續預計我們的業務趨勢將在今年下半年發生變化，我們將在 10 月底郵寄 RH Contemporary Sourcebook，在 1 月初郵寄 RH Modern Sourcebook，以及在接下來的幾個季度更新我們的畫廊。我們相信，隨著我們的新系列全面上市，我們的拐點將在2024 年上半年達到頂峰，並且我們將開始另一個資料手冊郵寄週期，在12 個月的時間內徹底改變和刷新整個品牌的品種。

We believe the new collections reflect a level of design and quality and accessible in our current market and a value proposition that will be disruptive across multiple markets, positioning RH to gain market share throughout fiscal 2024. While a product transformation of this magnitude will be margin dilutive in the short term as we cycle out of waning collections, we believe it will once again become margin accretive as selling rates stabilize and allow our supply chain and sourcing -- allow for supply chain and sourcing efficiencies.

我們相信，新系列反映了我們當前市場上的設計和質量水平，以及對多個市場具有顛覆性的價值主張，使RH 在整個2024 財年獲得市場份額。雖然如此大規模的產品轉型將帶來利潤短期內，隨著我們擺脫逐漸減少的系列，我們相信，隨著銷售率穩定並允許我們的供應鍊和採購——允許供應鍊和採購效率，它將再次增加利潤。

Platform expansion. Our plan to expand the RH brand globally, address new markets locally and transform our North American galleries represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity. This summer, we introduced RH to the United Kingdom in a dramatic and unforgettable fashion with the opening of RH England, The Gallery at the Historic Aynho Park, a 17th century 73-acre estate, that is a celebration of history, design, food and wine. We had a spectacular turnout for our opening event in early June, and the national and global press coverage the brand received was multiple times greater than any gallery we've ever opened.

平台擴展。我們計劃在全球範圍內拓展 RH 品牌、開拓本地新市場並改造我們的北美畫廊，這代表著一個數十億美元的機遇。今年夏天，我們以戲劇性且令人難忘的方式將RH 引入了英國，在歷史悠久的艾因霍公園(Aynho Park) 開設了RH England 畫廊，這座17 世紀的莊園佔地73 英畝，是對歷史、設計、美食和文化的慶祝。葡萄酒。六月初的開幕活動出席人數非常多，該品牌收到的全國和全球媒體報導比我們開設過的任何畫廊都要多好幾倍。

Due to RH England's countryside location, we expect the majority of revenues to be driven by our interior design and trade businesses, which are dependent on building books of business with high-value repeat clients like interior design firms and hospitality projects. The quote books are building and will soon mail our first Sourcebook in the United Kingdom. While pleased with the early response, there is still much to learn about the seasonality of the business in the English countryside, especially in the winter season. We'll know more once we start mailing Sourcebooks and experience a couple of seasons. Our global expansion also includes openings in Dusseldorf and Munich later this year, with Paris, Brussels and Madrid scheduled for 2024, and London, Milan and Sydney for 2025.

由於 RH England 位於鄉村，我們預計大部分收入將由我們的室內設計和貿易業務驅動，這些業務依賴於與室內設計公司和酒店項目等高價值回頭客建立業務關係。報價書籍正在製作中，很快將在英國郵寄我們的第一本資料手冊。雖然對早期的反應感到滿意，但關於英國鄉村業務的季節性，特別是在冬季，仍有很多東西需要了解。一旦我們開始郵寄資料冊並體驗幾個季節，我們就會了解更多。我們的全球擴張還包括今年晚些時候在杜塞爾多夫和慕尼黑開設新店，巴黎、布魯塞爾和馬德里計劃於 2024 年開業，倫敦、米蘭和悉尼將於 2025 年開業。

Regarding our North American transformation. We continue to plan opening RH Indianapolis and RH Cleveland in the second half of this year, while RH Palo Alto and RH Montecito will now open in early '24. Additionally, we have 12 North American galleries in the development pipeline scheduled to open over the next several years.

關於我們北美的轉型。我們繼續計劃在今年下半年開設 RH 印第安納波利斯和 RH 克利夫蘭辦事處，而 RH 帕洛阿爾托和 RH 蒙特西托辦事處將於 24 年初開業。此外，我們還有 12 個北美畫廊正在籌建中，計劃在未來幾年內開業。

We also believe there is an opportunity to address new markets locally by opening design studios in neighborhoods, towns and small cities where the wealthy and affluent live, visit and vacation. We have several existing locations that have validated the strategy in East Hampton, Yountville, Los Gatos, Pasadena and our former San Francisco Gallery in the Design District, where we have generated annual revenues in the range of $5 million to $20 million in 2,000 to 5,000 square feet. We have just secured our first new location for Design Studio in Palm Desert, which should open in the first half of 2024.

我們還相信，通過在富人和富人居住、訪問和度假的社區、城鎮和小城市開設設計工作室，有機會開拓本地新市場。我們在東漢普頓、揚特維爾、洛斯加托斯、帕薩迪納以及位於設計區的前舊金山畫廊擁有多個現有地點，這些地點已驗證了該策略，我們在這些地點的2,000 至5,000年間創造了500 萬至2000 萬美元的年收入。平方英尺。我們剛剛在棕櫚沙漠確定了第一個新的設計工作室地點，預計將於 2024 年上半年開業。

We have identified over 40 locations that are incremental to our previous plans in North America and believe the results of these Design Studios will provide data that could lead to opening larger galleries in those markets.

我們已經確定了 40 多個地點，這些地點是我們之前在北美計劃的補充，並相信這些設計工作室的結果將提供數據，從而可以在這些市場開設更大的畫廊。

Outlook. As mentioned, we are raising the low end of our revenue guidance for the year to a range of $3.04 billion to $3.1 billion and maintaining our outlook for adjusted operating margin in the range of 14.5% to 15.5%. We estimate the 53rd week will result in revenues of approximately $60 million. For the third quarter of fiscal 2023, we are forecasting revenues of $740 million to $760 million and adjusted operating margin in the range of 8% to 10%. We expect to have increased advertising costs of approximately $50 million versus Q2 2023, reflecting the shifting of the RH Interiors Sourcebook from Q2 to Q3, the mailing of RH Contemporary Sourcebook and the mailing of our first Sourcebook into the United Kingdom.

外表。如前所述，我們將今年收入指引的下限上調至 30.4 億美元至 31 億美元的範圍，並將調整後營業利潤率的預期維持在 14.5% 至 15.5% 的範圍內。我們預計第 53 週將帶來約 6000 萬美元的收入。對於 2023 財年第三季度，我們預計收入為 7.4 億至 7.6 億美元，調整後營業利潤率在 8% 至 10% 範圍內。與2023 年第二季度相比，我們預計廣告費用將增加約5000 萬美元，反映出RH Interiors Sourcebook 從第二季度轉移到第三季度、RH Contemporary Sourcebook 的郵寄以及我們第一本Sourcebook 到英國的郵寄。

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2023, we are forecasting revenues of $760 million to $800 million, and adjusted operating margin in the range of 14.4% to 16.6% with incremental advertising costs of $5 million versus the fourth quarter of last year.

對於 2023 財年第四季度，我們預計收入為 7.6 億至 8 億美元，調整後營業利潤率為 14.4% 至 16.6%，廣告成本較去年第四季度增加 500 萬美元。

RH business vision and ecosystem, the long view. We believe there are those with taste and no scale, and those with scale and no taste, and the idea of scaling taste is large and far-reaching. Our goal to position RH as the arbiter taste for the home has proven to be both disruptive and lucrative as we continue our quest to build the most admired brand in the world. Our brand attracts the leading designers, artisans and manufacturers, scaling and rendering their work more valuable across our integrated platform, enabling RH to curate the most compelling collection of luxury home products on the planet.

RH 商業願景和生態系統，長遠眼光。我們認為，有品味無規模，有規模無品味，規模品味的理念是宏大而深遠的。我們的目標是將 RH 定位為家居品味的仲裁者，事實證明，隨著我們繼續追求打造世界上最受尊敬的品牌，這一目標既具有顛覆性，又有利可圖。我們的品牌吸引了領先的設計師、工匠和製造商，在我們的集成平台上擴展他們的作品並使其變得更有價值，使 RH 能夠策劃全球最引人注目的豪華家居產品系列。

Our efforts to elevate and expand our collection will continue with the introductions of RH Couture, RH Bespoke, RH Color, RH Antiques & Artifacts, RH Atelier and other new collections scheduled to launch over the next decade. Our plan to open immersive Design Galleries in every major market will unlock the value of our vast assortment, generating revenues of $5 billion to $6 billion in North America and $20 billion to $25 billion globally.

我們將繼續努力提升和擴展我們的產品系列，推出 RH Couture、RH Bespoke、RH Color、RH Antiques & Artifacts、RH Atelier 以及計劃在未來十年推出的其他新系列。我們計劃在每個主要市場開設沉浸式設計畫廊，這將釋放我們龐大品種的價值，在北美創造 50 億至 60 億美元的收入，在全球創造 200 億至 250 億美元的收入。

Our strategy is to move the brand beyond curating and selling product to conceptualizing and selling spaces. By building an ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces that establishes the RH brand as a global thought leader, taste and place maker. Our products are elevated and rendered more valuable by our architecturally inspiring galleries, which are further elevated and rendered more valuable by our interior design services and seamlessly integrated hospitality experience.

我們的策略是將品牌從策劃和銷售產品轉向概念化和銷售空間。通過構建產品、場所、服務和空間的生態系統，將 RH 品牌打造為全球思想領袖、品味和場所製造者。我們的產品通過我們的建築靈感畫廊得到提升並變得更有價值，而我們的室內設計服務和無縫集成的酒店體驗進一步提升了我們的產品並變得更有價值。

Our hospitality efforts will continue to elevate the RH brand as we extend beyond the 4 walls of our galleries into RH Guesthouses where our goal is to create a new market for travelers seeking luxury and privacy in the $200 billion North American hotel industry. Additionally, we are creating bespoke experiences like RH Yountville, an integration of food, wine, art and design in the Napa Valley, RH1 and RH2, our private jets, and RH3, our luxury yacht that is available for charter in the Caribbean and Mediterranean where the wealthy and affluent visit and vacation. These immersive experiences expose new and existing customers to our evolving authority and architecture, interior design and landscape architecture.

我們的酒店服務工作將繼續提升RH 品牌，因為我們將業務擴展到RH Guesthouses 的4 堵牆之外，我們的目標是在價值2000 億美元的北美酒店業中為尋求奢華和隱私的旅行者創造一個新市場。此外，我們還打造定制體驗，例如RH Yountville（納帕谷的美食、美酒、藝術和設計的融合）、RH1 和RH2（我們的私人飛機）以及RH3（我們的豪華遊艇，可在加勒比海和地中海地區包租）有錢人和有錢人參觀和度假的地方。這些身臨其境的體驗讓新老客戶了解我們不斷發展的權威和建築、室內設計和景觀設計。

This leads to our long-term strategy of building the world's first consumer-facing architecture, interior design and landscape architecture services platform inside our galleries, elevating the brand and amplifying our core business while adding new revenue streams while disrupting and redefining multiple industries. Our strategy comes full circle as we begin to conceptualize in self spaces moving beyond the $170 billion furnishings market into the $1.7 trillion North American housing market with the launch of RH Residences, fully furnished luxury homes, condominiums and apartments with integrated services that deliver taste and time value to discerning time-starved consumers.

這導致我們的長期戰略是在我們的畫廊內建立世界上第一個面向消費者的建築、室內設計和景觀設計服務平台，提升品牌並擴大我們的核心業務，同時增加新的收入來源，同時顛覆和重新定義多個行業。隨著 RH Residences 的推出，我們開始構思自我空間，超越 1700 億美元的家具市場，進入 1.7 萬億美元的北美住房市場，我們的戰略圓滿結束。對於挑剔的時間匱乏的消費者來說，時間價值。

The entirety of our strategy comes to life digitally with the world of RH, an online portal where customers can explore and be inspired by the depth and dimension of our brand. Our authority as an arbiter of taste will be further amplified when we introduce RH Media, a content platform that will celebrate the most innovative and influential leaders who are shaping the world of architecture and design. Our plan to expand the RH ecosystem globally, multiplies the market opportunity to $7 trillion to $10 trillion, one of the largest and most valuable addressed by any brand in the world today, a 1% share of the global market represents a $70 billion to $100 billion opportunity.

我們的整個戰略通過 RH 世界以數字方式實現，RH 是一個在線門戶，客戶可以在其中探索我們品牌的深度和維度並從中獲得靈感。當我們推出 RH Media 時，我們作為品味仲裁者的權威將得到進一步增強。RH Media 是一個內容平台，旨在表彰塑造建築和設計世界的最具創新性和影響力的領導者。我們計劃在全球範圍內擴展RH 生態系統，將市場機會增加到7 萬億至10 萬億美元，這是當今世界上任何品牌所涉足的最大、最有價值的市場機會之一，全球市場的1 % 份額相當於700 億至100 美元億的機會。

Our ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces inspires customers to dream, design, dine, travel and live in a world thoughtfully curated by RH, creating an emotional connection unlike any other brand in the world. Taste can be elusive and we believe no one is better positioned than RH to create an ecosystem that makes taste inclusive and by doing so, elevating and rendering our way of life more valuable.

我們的產品、場所、服務和空間生態系統激勵客戶在 RH 精心策劃的世界中夢想、設計、用餐、旅行和生活，創造出不同於世界上任何其他品牌的情感聯繫。品味是難以捉摸的，我們相信沒有人比 RH 更適合創建一個生態系統，使品味具有包容性，並通過這樣做來提升我們的生活方式並使之變得更有價值。

The end of COVID confusion, the beginning of the next evolution. We spent far too much time over the past 4 years debating if this was going to be the decade of home or the death of retail. If inflation was transitory or fiscal tightening was mandatory, home sales and prices shooting up like a rocket and now falling to Earth like a rock. For the first time in my career, retailers were comparing their growth rates to any one of the past 4 years in any given month of any given year. The fact is, we're directionally in the same spot we were 4 years ago, worrying about the financial recession in the poll saying we might have a presidential regression. If there was ever a time the world needed to Encompass, this might be it. The people of team RH encompasses our vision, values, beliefs and culture. Those things that drive us and unite us. Those things we look for, would fight for and dive for.

新冠混亂的結束，下一次演變的開始。過去 4 年裡，我們花了太多時間爭論這將是家庭的十年還是零售業的消亡。如果通貨膨脹是暫時的，或者財政緊縮是強制性的，那麼房屋銷售和價格就會像火箭一樣飆升，而現在又會像岩石一樣落到地球上。在我的職業生涯中，零售商第一次將自己的增長率與過去 4 年中任意一年任意月份的增長率進行比較。事實是，我們正處於四年前的同一個位置，擔心民意調查中的金融衰退，稱我們可能會出現總統倒退。如果世界有一個需要包容的時刻，也許就是現在了。 RH 團隊的成員涵蓋了我們的願景、價值觀、信仰和文化。那些驅動我們、團結我們的事物。我們所尋找的東西，我們會為之奮鬥、為之奮鬥。

After several years of being apart during COVID, we finally returned to The Palace of Fine Arts Theater in San Francisco or what used to be our annual leadership conference, and we talked about those things. For the first time in the past 4 years, everything came into focus, clear replaced fear and connections were personal and not virtual. It felt different because it was different. There's a different level of accountability when someone is standing in front of you, looking straight into your eyes and making a suggestion or a request versus blankly into a screen, not knowing if those on the other end have you on mute or just aren't very interested.

在新冠疫情期間分開幾年後，我們終於回到了舊金山美術宮劇院，或者曾經是我們年度領導會議的地方，我們討論了這些事情。過去四年來，第一次一切都變得清晰起來，恐懼取代了清晰，聯繫是個人的，而不是虛擬的。因為不一樣所以感覺不一樣。當有人站在你面前，直視你的眼睛提出建議或請求，而不是茫然地看著屏幕，不知道另一端的人是否讓你靜音時，你需要承擔不同程度的責任很感興趣。

It's time to break the bad habits of COVID. It's time to get off the screens, get out of our home office and reconnect in our team office or as we did at the Palace. It just felt different because it was different. And I'm sure it's going to lead to an outcome that's different. Yet it also felt familiar like finding our way back home, back with our people where none of us are smarter than all of us, getting all the brains in the game and the egos out of the room, listening and learning, discussing and debating, elevating and aligning. It felt like the beginning of our next evolution and it felt like we were beginners again. Never underestimate the power of a few good people who don't know what can't be done, especially these people, onward team RH, Carpe Diem.

是時候改掉新冠病毒帶來的壞習慣了。是時候離開屏幕，離開我們的家庭辦公室，在我們的團隊辦公室或像我們在皇宮那樣重新建立聯繫了。只是因為不一樣所以感覺不一樣。我確信這會帶來不同的結果。然而，這也讓我們感覺很熟悉，就像找到回家的路，回到我們的人民身邊，沒有人比我們所有人更聰明，把所有的大腦都投入到遊戲中，把自我帶出房間，傾聽和學習，討論和辯論，提升和對齊。這感覺就像我們下一次進化的開始，感覺我們又是初學者了。永遠不要低估一些不知道什麼做不到的好人的力量，尤其是這些人，前進的團隊 RH，Carpe Diem。

At this time, we'll open the call to questions.

此時，我們將開放提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Steven Forbes from Guggenheim Securities.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自古根海姆證券公司的史蒂文福布斯。

Gary, I was hoping you could maybe just expand on what's driving your confidence in seeing an inflection in the business during the back half? And what the early indications from the RH carrier book, and I guess, RH England as well, inform me about what the potential reacceleration in demand could look like as we think out to '24 and beyond?

加里，我希望您能詳細闡述一下是什麼讓您對看到下半年業務出現拐點充滿信心？ RH 航母手冊（我猜還有 RH England）的早期跡象告訴我，當我們考慮到 24 年及以後時，需求的潛在重新加速會是什麼樣子？

Sure. I think there's a couple of dynamics happening. I think you've got kind of a cycling of the backside of COVID and you've got a cycling of the -- the dramatic rise in interest rates and the fall off of the highs of what I call a COVID and zero federal funds rate driven home market. So from our view, I think that cycling happens at the end of this year. And the question is -- the question is, is there a longer downdraft in the home cycle? I think that the unanswered questions really deal with -- if you say what's the problem with the housing market today? You've got this real delta in interest rates between people who bought a home over the last several years at dramatically low interest rates that are sitting there with 2.7% to call it 3.4% interest rates, 90% of the market is fixed. So you got 90% of market owning homes with really low interest rates, and you've got a interest rate gap, current 30-year mortgages are going for 7%, somewhere between 6.8% to 7.4%. It's kind of the range depending on credit. So you've got a huge spread there.

當然。我認為有一些動態正在發生。我認為你已經經歷了新冠疫情背後的循環，利率急劇上升，以及我所說的新冠疫情和零聯邦基金利率高點的回落。帶動國內市場。所以從我們的角度來看，我認為自行車運動會在今年年底出現。問題是——問題是，本土週期是否存在更長的下降趨勢？我認為這些懸而未決的問題確實涉及——如果你說當今的房地產市場存在什麼問題？過去幾年以極低的利率買房的人之間的實際利率差異是 2.7% 到 3.4%，市場的 90% 是固定的。因此，市場上 90% 的人擁有利率非常低的房屋，並且存在利率差距，當前 30 年期抵押貸款的利率為 7%，介於 6.8% 到 7.4% 之間。這是一個取決於信用的範圍。所以你在那裡有很大的傳播。

And what's compounding that huge spread is you haven't had home prices drop enough yet, right, to offset that margin spread. If home rates dropped -- home prices went up 42% in the 2 years, and the 2 years post the COVID -- through the COVID boom. Once COVID hit and there was -- everybody who's stuck at home and focused on exiting cities, you have the biggest migration from cities to suburbs in history and biggest migration to second homes in history. So you've got a lot of people that moved at a record rate. You've got a lot of people locked into really low interest rates. Now you've got really high interest rates and you have no inventory in the market, and you have no inventory in the market because people can't afford to buy a new home once they sell their home because they're going to trade at 2.7% to 3.4% interest rate for, call it, a 7.2% interest rate maybe at the midpoint. And so you've got a lock on that. We're going to begin to cycle this.

令這種巨大的利差更加複雜的是，房價還沒有下降到足以抵消利潤差的程度。如果房價下降——在新冠疫情繁榮期間，房價在過去 2 年以及新冠疫情后的 2 年上漲了 42%。一旦新冠疫情襲來，所有被困在家裡並專注於離開城市的人，就會出現歷史上最大規模的從城市到郊區的遷移，以及歷史上最大規模的第二居所的遷移。所以有很多人以創紀錄的速度流動。很多人都被困在極低的利率中。現在你的利率非常高，而且市場上沒有庫存，而且市場上也沒有庫存，因為人們一旦賣掉房子就買不起新房，因為他們的交易價格是2.7% 到3.4% 的利率，或者說，7.2 % 的利率可能是中間值。所以你已經鎖定了它。我們將開始循環這個。

So if the Fed has CPI, if they have inflation under control, and we don't -- doesn't have to continue to be kind of tightening. The question is, when do home prices come down enough for people to step up and pay the higher rate or when do rates come down and close that gap? Either housing prices have to come down or interest rates have to come down or the gap doesn't close, right? So you may kind of [wallet] at the bottom or there could be further downdraft, if there's a more broader economic issue in the economy or if anything is happening with the commercial market with offices is not a good market. And our view is not all that negative news is kind of unveiled itself.

因此，如果美聯儲有消費物價指數，如果他們控制了通脹，而我們沒有——就不必繼續採取緊縮政策。問題是，房價什麼時候會下降到足以讓人們加緊支付更高的利率，或者利率什麼時候會下降並縮小這一差距？要么房價必須下降，要么利率必須下降，否則差距就不會縮小，對嗎？因此，如果經濟中出現更廣泛的經濟問題，或者帶有辦公室的商業市場出現問題，那麼你的錢包可能會觸底，或者可能會出現進一步的下跌。我們的觀點並不是所有負面消息都是自行揭開的。

So there's -- but we're -- from our view, we're kind of at the end of the worst of it. It's -- is there going to be a bounce? I mean, if you look forward at the market that's saying that we should expect interest rate cuts starting next year in Q2, Q3, Q4, maybe 100 basis points. It's 100 basis points of interest rate cuts move the housing market much, maybe it moves it a little. But I think there's going to be a bigger -- you got to close this gap. It's a gap that I've never seen. I don't think anybody on the phone has ever seen. That's created kind of a conundrum in the housing market.

所以，但從我們的角度來看，我們已經接近最糟糕的時期了。會出現反彈嗎？我的意思是，如果你展望市場，我們應該預計明年第二季度、第三季度、第四季度開始降息，也許會降息 100 個基點。降息 100 個基點對房地產市場的影響很大，也許只是一點點。但我認為將會有一個更大的差距——你必須縮小這個差距。這是我從未見過的差距。我想電話裡的人都沒有見過。這給房地產市場帶來了一個難題。

And then you've got -- look, the news in the press is, oh, new houses are up 20%. Well, new house is only 10% of the market. The existing home sales is 90% of the market. So until you get existing home sales and this market stabilized, not a downdraft, that's going to be critical. So we expect stabilization, we think, next year. We don't think there's going to be acceleration until there's interest rate cuts or pricing comes down. Home prices come down to kind of close that gap. So let's put that off to the side. That's 1 issue.

然後你看，媒體上的新聞是，哦，新房上漲了 20%。嗯，新房只佔市場的10%。現有房屋銷售量佔市場90%。因此，在現房銷售和市場穩定下來之前，這將是至關重要的。因此，我們預計明年會出現穩定。我們認為，在降息或定價下降之前，經濟不會加速。房價下跌以縮小這一差距。所以讓我們把它放在一邊。這是1個問題。

Then you've got what we're doing, which is a complete transformation and reimagination or refresh of the brand that we've been working on now for several years. It's going to be unveiled here over the next several quarters. So the early indications on the books, and again, we're hitting 40% of the books in home by the end of this week, look really good. The early, early indications. Now you got to be careful and how you extrapolate that, because you have to extrapolate it on, okay, what does this look like when all the books get in home, what does this look like when the in-stocks reach their best -- their optimum levels, what does this look like when you start refreshing the galleries in the stores with those? There's all lift factors to all of that.

然後你就明白了我們正在做的事情，這是對我們多年來一直致力於的品牌的徹底轉型和重新想像或更新。它將在接下來的幾個季度在這裡揭曉。因此，書籍的早期跡象，以及到本週末我們將在家裡閱讀 40% 的書籍，看起來非常好。早期的、早期的跡象。現在你必須小心，以及如何推斷，因為你必須推斷，好吧，當所有的書都到家時會是什麼樣子，當庫存達到最佳狀態時會是什麼樣子——他們的最佳水平，當你開始用這些來刷新商店的畫廊時，這會是什麼樣子？所有這些都有所有的升力因素。

So when we look at this and we extrapolate this, we think there's going to be a real inflection point. How big is that inflection point? It's -- to us, it looks like a meaningful inflection point. And then there is part of our decision to kind of push the mailing into Q3 was to kind of take a longer-term view of what should be our contact strategy as we've now -- are going through this brand refresh and reimagination and repositioning. And our view is we -- through history, we went through cycles where we contact the customer twice a year with each book and periods where -- years where we contact the customer once a year, 1 kind of big cycle of mailings. And our view is, I think, we better reacclimate the consumer to the RH brand to the newness, the excitement that's in the brand and everything we're doing. And our view is to set up a 2 contact strategy.

因此，當我們審視這一點並進行推斷時，我們認為將會出現一個真正的拐點。這個拐點有多大？對我們來說，這看起來像是一個有意義的拐點。然後，我們決定將郵寄推到第三季度的部分原因是，我們要以更長遠的眼光來看待我們的聯繫策略，就像我們現在正在經歷的品牌更新、重新構想和重新定位一樣。 。我們的觀點是，縱觀歷史，我們經歷了每年與客戶聯繫兩次每本書的周期，以及每年與客戶聯繫一次的時期，這是一種大的郵件週期。我認為，我們的觀點是，我們最好讓消費者重新適應 RH 品牌的新鮮感、品牌的興奮感以及我們所做的一切。我們的觀點是製定兩次接觸策略。

So the timing of those contracts -- context, we should -- we believe should be a full contact and kind of -- all contact in the spring contact. It's how I'd frame it. So all being kind of a mid- to late August contact that gets in-home by end of September, our books -- especially our interior books, our interior book is 604 books, nobody does a 604-page book other than us and getting that printed and bound and through the system takes longer than it will on our other 2 books that will be more in the 300-page range.

因此，這些合同的時間安排——上下文，我們應該——我們認為應該是全面接觸，並且是——所有接觸都在春季接觸中。這就是我要構建的方式。因此，所有這些都是八月中下旬的聯繫，九月底到家，我們的書——尤其是我們的室內書籍，我們的室內書籍有604 本書，除了我們之外沒有人做604 頁的書，並且得到與我們其他兩本 300 頁範圍內的書籍相比，通過系統進行打印和裝訂所需的時間更長。

So we've got this first contact that will get all in-home kind of, call it, end of September, first week of October. And then we're going to come out with the contemporary book kind of mid-October through late October and then we'll come with the January book with the contemporary book in the October period and then the modern book in early January when people get back from holidays and so on and so forth and everything reopens again.

因此，我們的第一次接觸將在 9 月底、10 月的第一周進行，即在家裡進行。然後我們將在 10 月中旬到 10 月下旬推出當代書，然後我們將在 10 月期間推出 1 月書和當代書，然後在一月初推出現代書，當時人們從假期回來等等，一切又重新開始。

Then we'll cycle back around, and we'll hit everyone with this next contact, if you look at over a 12-month period and that will be kind of a March, April, May, June contact. And so the 3 books we'll hit again will have another meaningful round of newness coming. And by the end of that contact, we will be kind of fully transitioned. It doesn't mean we won't have new product in the next contact when you think about the next fall. But the percentage of newness will be more in the 15% to 20% range, where this is basically an 80% refresh of the brand. It's massive. It's the biggest product move I've ever made in the history of my career, and I've made some pretty big product groups.

然後我們會循環回來，如果您查看 12 個月的時間段，我們將通過下一次接觸來打擊所有人，這將是 3 月、4 月、5 月和 6 月的接觸。因此，我們將再次推出的三本書將迎來又一輪有意義的新鮮感。到這次接觸結束時，我們將完全轉變。當你想到明年秋天時，這並不意味著我們在下次接觸時不會有新產品。但新鮮度百分比將更多地在 15% 到 20% 範圍內，這基本上是品牌 80% 的更新。它是巨大的。這是我職業生涯中做過的最大的產品變動，而且我已經創建了一些相當大的產品組。

So you've got to kind of think about how you're spreading out, how much can the consumer digest at a time, how are you going to read it correctly and how are you going to have the contacts not overwhelm them and the new news not overwhelm them. So as we kind of took a bigger view at it instead of this kind of 1 view and looked at it more, how do we think about it strategically, maybe, call it, over the next 3 years. We think this is the right contract strategy and we'll create -- by the peak of the inflection, I think it will be really meaningful. I think we will gain significant market share, significant market share versus anybody else in our category.

因此，你必須考慮如何傳播，消費者一次可以消化多少，你將如何正確閱讀它，以及你將如何讓聯繫人不淹沒他們和新的內容新聞不會讓他們不知所措。因此，當我們對它採取更大的看法而不是這種單一觀點並更多地審視它時，我們如何在未來 3 年中戰略性地思考它，也許可以稱之為它。我們認為這是正確的合同策略，我們將創造——到拐點的頂峰時，我認為這將非常有意義。我認為我們將獲得顯著的市場份額，與我們類別中的其他任何人相比，我們將獲得顯著的市場份額。

And I think the other thing to put into context is just how we think about disruptive pricing from a circular point of view, which I think we've -- in our efforts to elevate the brand, I think we weren't as kind of critical minded looking at price. I mentioned last conference call, I thought we probably were a bit arrogant looking back. And now I think we're laser-focused and laser sharp. So we're going to be very aggressive. We're going to use the size and strength of our platform and the leverage it gives us to be disruptive from a pricing point of view. And so -- and I think that's going to make a meaningful impact.

我認為另一件需要考慮的事情是我們如何從循環的角度思考顛覆性定價，我認為我們在努力提升品牌的過程中，我認為我們並沒有那樣做。批判性地看待價格。我提到上次電話會議，我想現在回想起來我們可能有點傲慢。現在我認為我們是激光聚焦和激光銳利。所以我們會非常積極。我們將利用我們平台的規模和實力以及它為我們提供的槓桿作用，從定價的角度來看具有顛覆性。所以——我認為這將產生有意義的影響。

I think if you look at the new book, and you look at the messaging and you look at the key items and you look at the key collections and you look at the quality of the product, the design, the quality design and the quality of the make of the product. And you look at the value, the price -- value of that product, I think it's going to disrupt a lot of people. And so I think we're as confident as we've ever been. I think that's the timing. And then the unknown is what does the housing market do? Is it flat? Does it go down another 5% or 10% or do we get a bounce? Regardless of whatever happens to the housing market, we're going to have a meaningful inflection point with the business and the brand. And that's why we deployed the capital. That's why we bought back 17% of the shares, 3.7 million shares.

我認為，如果你看這本新書，你看它的信息，你看它的關鍵項目，你看它的關鍵系列，你看產品的質量，設計，高質量的設計和質量。產品的品牌。你看看該產品的價值、價格，我認為它會擾亂很多人。所以我認為我們一如既往地充滿信心。我認為這就是時機。那麼未知的是房地產市場會做什麼？是平的嗎？它會再下跌 5% 或 10% 還是會反彈？無論房地產市場發生什麼，我們的業務和品牌都將迎來一個有意義的拐點。這就是我們部署資本的原因。這就是為什麼我們回購了17%的股份，即370萬股。

And -- so we like what we see early with the books here. We like our strategy. I think we're laser focused on this. And I think we're going to come out looking really good. So that's how we see it.

而且——所以我們喜歡我們早期在這本書中看到的內容。我們喜歡我們的策略。我認為我們非常關注這一點。我認為我們最終會表現得非常好。這就是我們的看法。

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

您的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

Jack, my question, one question, maybe 2 parts, is you mentioned product transformation and margin dilution. Is that all contained to '23? Or does some of it move into '24? And then, Gary, to your point, if this market wallows a little, and we do have another downdraft, given that you have leverage or the business has leverage now or a little more than it's normally used to, do you operate anything differently if the macro just takes longer to come out and then maybe the curve is steeper in later years, but it's flatter in the medium term.

傑克，我的問題，一個問題，也許有兩個部分，是你提到的產品轉型和利潤稀釋。這一切都包含在'23中嗎？或者其中一些會轉移到'24？然後，加里，就你的觀點而言，如果這個市場稍微低迷，而我們確實有另一個下行趨勢，考慮到你現在有槓桿或企業有槓桿，或者比通常習慣的多一點，你的經營方式是否會有所不同，如果宏觀經濟需要更長的時間才能出來，然後也許曲線在以後幾年會更陡，但在中期會更平坦。

Yes. I think by the first half of next year, the inflection is going to be much more significant than the macro. So I don't think it changes anything for us.

是的。我認為到明年上半年，這種變化將比宏觀經濟更加重要。所以我認為這不會給我們帶來任何改變。

On the margin dilution, Simeon. Look, I think about it also just relative where the margin -- or the discounting activity and clearance of that inventory will be in Q1 of '24 versus Q1 of '23. So yes, there's going to be still some of that in the first part of the year.

關於利潤稀釋，西蒙。看，我認為這也只是相對於 24 年第一季度與 23 年第一季度的利潤或折扣活動和庫存清倉情況而言。所以，是的，今年上半年仍然會有一些這樣的情況。

But there's going to be -- I think that -- there's 2 things, right? You've got margin dilution from a product margin point of view as we're transitioning the assortment -- but you're going to have leverage and margin accretion with -- throughout the model based on what we believe what will happen with our top line. So yes, I just -- I think '24 is going to be a very good year unless there is some kind of crazy crisis that we don't believe is on the horizon. I think that -- I think the history would tell us if things really got worse that the Fed is going to ease. I look back at the last 20 years, I mean, the Fed has been very consistent. We've lived in a very long period of really low interest rates with just a few slight blips that are high. And I think the Fed will act in a way that will stimulate the economy again.

但我認為，會有兩件事，對嗎？當我們轉變品種時，從產品利潤的角度來看，你會得到利潤稀釋 - 但你將在整個模型中獲得槓桿和利潤增加 - 基於我們相信我們的頂級會發生什麼線。所以，是的，我只是 - 我認為 24​​ 年將是非常好的一年，除非出現某種我們認為不會出現的瘋狂危機。我認為歷史會告訴我們，如果情況真的變得更糟，美聯儲就會放鬆政策。回顧過去 20 年，我的意思是，美聯儲一直非常一致。我們已經生活在很長一段時期，利率非常低，只有幾次輕微的高利率。我認為美聯儲將以再次刺激經濟的方式採取行動。

So -- and then housing will -- at some point, housing will take off, right? You got a lot of pent-up demand. It's just that the demand can be super pent up that if the gap doesn't change, right? If either pricing doesn't come down or interest rate gap doesn't change, interest rates have to come down. One of the 2 things happen. If they both happen, prices come down and the Fed uses -- you can get -- I think we can get a really good [toss] in the housing market. But we just can't control that. We have a point of view on it, to share our point of view. We look at a lot of things, and we got a lot of data that we study. The key for us is like we think about the balance sheet, which we do, I mean we deployed a lot of capital. We have a lot of confidence in the model. We're in the middle of a transformation. It's not -- this is not, by any means, the first time we've done it. It's the biggest thing we've ever done. But our experience in making moves like this is deeper than anyone in this industry. And we're laser-focused on it.

那麼——然後住房將會——在某個時候，住房將會起飛，對吧？你有很多被壓抑的需求。只是如果差距不改變的話，需求可能會被過度壓抑，對嗎？如果定價不下降或利差不改變，利率就必須下降。發生兩件事之一。如果這兩種情況都發生，價格就會下降，美聯儲就會使用——你可以得到——我認為我們可以在房地產市場上得到一個非常好的[折騰]。但我們就是無法控制這一點。我們對此有自己的看法，分享我們的觀點。我們研究了很多東西，也得到了很多我們研究的數據。對我們來說，關鍵就像我們考慮資產負債表一樣，我們這樣做，我的意思是我們部署了大量資本。我們對這個模型很有信心。我們正處於轉型之中。無論如何，這不是我們第一次這樣做。這是我們做過的最大的事情。但我們在採取此類行動方面的經驗比這個行業的任何人都深厚。我們全神貫注於它。

And we understand our balance sheet really well and what our cash flow is going to be like and the timing of capital and outflows and projected inflows and we know all kinds of downside models and know how to operate any kind of environment, any kind of difficult environment. I mean so we don't fear the leverage, and we've had a lot more leverage on this business and people have seen us navigate through those situations in a relatively uninterrupted way, except for the real depth of 2008, '09 or something like that. So we feel great. But I think the key headline, I'd say, I just would be really -- it would be shocking if we don't outperform whatever macro might happen in the first half of next year, unless it is so severe that it becomes some kind of a crippling thing across the economy. And I just don't think that that's going to happen. I think the Fed is going to do the things that the Fed usually does.

我們非常了解我們的資產負債表，我們的現金流將會是什麼樣子，以及資本和流出以及預計流入的時間，我們知道各種下行模型，並且知道如何運作任何類型的環境，任何類型的困難環境。我的意思是，我們不害怕槓桿，我們在這項業務上擁有更多的槓桿，人們看到我們以相對不間斷的方式應對這些情況，除了 2008 年、09 年或其他時期的真正深度像那樣。所以我們感覺很棒。但我認為關鍵的標題，我想說的是，如果我們不能超越明年上半年可能發生的任何宏觀情況，那將是令人震驚的，除非情況如此嚴重，以至於變得有些嚴重。這對整個經濟來說是一種破壞性的事情。我只是認為這種情況不會發生。我認為美聯儲將會做美聯儲通常做的事情。

And if we get any kind of stabilization or uptick in the market, like we'll have an incredible year. So I think we're set up better than we've ever been set up in the history of the business. And I think we'll have the biggest inflection point we've ever had is my view -- by Q2 of next year. Like there'll be an inflection point before that, but I think will peak when I look at all the lines and I think about production and in-stocks and floor sets and all the transition moves we have to make. I think that in the second cycle of the books, I think it will start to peak then, and then I think we're going to have an incredible run.

如果我們的市場出現任何形式的穩定或上升，我們將度過令人難以置信的一年。所以我認為我們的設置比企業歷史上的任何設置都要好。我認為，到明年第二季度，我們將迎來有史以來最大的拐點。就像在那之前會有一個拐點，但我認為當我查看所有生產線並考慮生產、庫存、樓層以及我們必須採取的所有過渡舉措時，拐點將會達到頂峰。我認為在本書的第二個週期中，我認為它將開始達到頂峰，然後我認為我們將有一個令人難以置信的運行。

Your next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone from Citi.

您的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

So I wanted to shift to the RH England opening. It sounds like it's a good successful opening event, but it will take some time to maturity. Do you expect the rest of your international openings to resemble this maturity curve? Or is this the longest one since it's kind of your first? And then similarly, the letter confirmed 9 international openings by 2025. Can you talk a bit more about the pace of annual openings for international going forward? Is 3 kind of the right number?

所以我想轉向 RH England 的開局。聽起來這是一次成功的開幕活動，但成熟還需要一些時間。您預計其他國際空缺職位是否會與此成熟曲線類似？或者這是自第一次以來最長的一次？同樣，這封信確認到 2025 年將開設 9 個國際職位空缺。您能多談談未來每年國際職位空缺的進度嗎？ 3 是正確的數字嗎？

Yes, let's start with first. Well, one, RH England, some like anything we've ever opened, not just because of an international perspective. But really the kind of location and our view of how we wanted to introduce the brand and when we wanted to introduce the brand. One, we wanted to introduce the brand in a very unique and unforgettable fashion. Just because that the U.S. isn't really seen from a European perspective when you think about design, taste and style, luxury market, so on and so forth. That's not really the game we play really well. I think I made the comment before. The only true luxury brand, we've had, I think, in the United States, is Tiffany and now the French own it, right? And all the luxury brands are from Europe.

是的，我們先從第一開始。嗯，其中之一，RH England，有些像我們曾經開設過的任何東西，不僅僅是因為國際視野。但實際上是這樣的位置以及我們對如何引入該品牌以及何時引入該品牌的看法。第一，我們想以一種非常獨特且令人難忘的方式推出該品牌。只是因為當你思考設計、品味和風格、奢侈品市場等等時，你並沒有真正從歐洲的角度來看待美國。這並不是我們玩得很好的遊戲。我想我之前發表過評論。我認為，在美國，我們擁有的唯一真正的奢侈品牌是蒂芙尼，現在法國人擁有它，對嗎？而且所有的奢侈品牌都來自歐洲。

So how are we going to go into that world and introduce ourselves. We thought that was really important. And so -- and we also thought the timing, like how do we kind of get the name known and establish ourselves in a unique way. And we could have waited and opened Paris first or we could have waited and opened London first. We would had to wait longer and we came across this opportunity at this property, and we thought this could be something remarkable. It could be a really great introduction for the brand. And I've always said that we've made the decision on RH England because of its location, it's an hour and 45 minutes outside of London. It's in the Cotswolds. It's around wealthy and affluent people, but it's not around density. You don't have anybody kind of walking by this gallery. Like it's not -- it is a true destination. And you kind of got to go out of your way. But you're going to something that's spectacular that you've never seen before. So the impression of it is like nothing else.

那麼我們如何進入那個世界並介紹自己呢？我們認為這非常重要。所以——我們也考慮了時機，比如我們如何讓這個名字廣為人知並以獨特的方式建立自己。我們可以等待並首先開放巴黎，或者我們可以等待並首先開放倫敦。我們不得不等待更長時間，我們在這家酒店遇到了這個機會，我們認為這可能是一件了不起的事情。這對於該品牌來說可能是一個非常好的介紹。我一直說我們選擇 RH England 是因為它的地理位置，距倫敦 1 小時 45 分鐘車程。這是在科茨沃爾德。它圍繞的是富有和富裕的人，但不是圍繞密度。沒有人走過這個畫廊。就像它不是一樣——它是一個真正的目的地。你必須不遺餘力。但你將會看到一些你以前從未見過的壯觀的東西。所以給人的印像是獨一無二的。

And I don't want to make the wrong comparison here, but if you just think about kind of things that have went into the, what I call the middle and nowhere and changed everything. You think about Disneyland. Disneyland opened in the middle of nowhere. If you went back to when they open that the middle of an orange orchard, and there was no one around. No one -- there was no population density anywhere near it. And it changed everything. If you think about Las Vegas, Las Vegas didn't exist. It was created. And I don't -- I'm not trying to make a correlation that's exactly right.

我不想在這裡進行錯誤的比較，但如果你想想那些已經進入的東西，我所說的中間和無處並改變了一切。你會想到迪士尼樂園。迪士尼樂園在一個荒無人煙的地方開業了。如果你回到他們開放的時候，在一個橘子園的中間，周圍沒有人。沒有人——附近沒有任何人口密度。它改變了一切。如果您想到拉斯維加斯，就會發現拉斯維加斯根本不存在。它被創造了。我不——我並不想建立完全正確的關聯。

What I'm trying to say is we're trying to create a brand at a level of the market that hasn't been created before. And our view was that this was a decision that was more to drive a conversation than it was to drive commerce. We never thought this was going to be a high-volume gallery. But we didn't think it'd be no volume. I think it's going to be fine. I think it would take much -- if you took anything like this and put it in London, I mean it's going to do multiple times -- immediately multiple times faster. It's a little inconvenient but it's extraordinary. And a lot of really extraordinary things in the world started as being inconvenient, right? It was inconvenient to get an iPhone, inconvenient to get a Tesla. How long did people wait to get a Tesla? How long did people wait -- how long they waited to get the new roaster or the cyber truck?

我想說的是，我們正在嘗試在市場層面創建一個前所未有的品牌。我們的觀點是，這個決定更多的是推動對話而不是推動商業。我們從未想過這會是一個大容量的畫廊。但我們並不認為它會沒有體積。我想一切都會好起來的。我認為這需要很多時間——如果你把這樣的東西放在倫敦，我的意思是它會做很多次——立即快很多倍。雖然有點不方便，但是卻很了不起。世界上很多真正非凡的事情都是從不方便開始的，對嗎？買iPhone不方便，買特斯拉也不方便。人們等了多久才得到特斯拉？人們等了多久——他們等了多久才得到新的烘焙機或網絡卡車？

So it's -- you've got to kind of think about what are the long-term things you're trying to do. We're trying to shape the brand in a way that a brand has never been shaped before. Introduced the brand to Europe where the luxury brands are, I think, create the right conversation with the right people and create the right hype, halo for this whole thing to then -- as you introduce it in the other places, there's an excitement about it. They've heard about it. It's coming. They've seen it posted. They've seen it written about. I mean the press we've got on it is just incredible. It's multiple times higher than any gallery we've ever opened because it's something nobody seen before. And it's given the world something to talk about. And we have really interesting and high-profile people showing up there, setting up appointments there, and wanting to do collaborations with us, some of the highest end car brands in the world want to do car shows on our property and things like that.

所以，你必須考慮一下你想要做的長期事情是什麼。我們正在嘗試以前所未有的方式塑造品牌。我認為，將這個品牌引入歐洲，那裡的奢侈品牌會與合適的人進行合適的對話，並為整個事情創造合適的炒作和光環——當你在其他地方介紹它時，人們會感到興奮它。他們聽說過這件事。它來了。他們已經看到了它的發布。他們見過這樣寫的。我的意思是我們收到的媒體報導真是令人難以置信。它比我們開設過的任何畫廊都要高好幾倍，因為這是以前沒人見過的東西。它給了世界一些值得談論的話題。我們有非常有趣和引人注目的人出現在那裡，在那里安排約會，並希望與我們合作，世界上一些最高端的汽車品牌希望在我們的財產上舉辦車展等等。

I mean, so -- I think it's just going to open up all kinds of new opportunities and new conversations and new perceptions and possibilities for the RH brand. But it's not the gallery I would use to kind of say, Oh, let me extrapolate what happens here. We don't have anything like this in America. Yes. We don't have any kind of location like this. It's similar to this at all. So -- and that's why I think it's giving so much conversation. But it's not the most convenient place to shop. We knew that going in. So this is really to kind of introduce the brand, create the right conversation, let it build, let's go through a winner. Let's go through a cycle. Let's see what we have to do. And remember, we haven't mailed the book yet in the U.K. So we've got very little advertising. We've got all the press that everybody's written about, and then we've run a few ads and some magazines and stuff like that.

我的意思是，我認為這將為 RH 品牌帶來各種新機會、新對話、新觀念和可能性。但這不是我會用來說，哦，讓我推斷一下這裡發生的事情的畫廊。我們美國沒有這樣的東西。是的。我們沒有這樣的位置。與此完全相似。所以——這就是為什麼我認為它提供瞭如此多的對話。但這並不是最方便的購物地點。我們知道這一點。所以這實際上是為了介紹品牌，創造正確的對話，讓它建立起來，讓我們來選出一個勝利者。讓我們經歷一個循環。讓我們看看我們必須做什麼。請記住，我們還沒有在英國郵寄這本書，所以我們的廣告很少。我們擁有每個人都寫過的所有媒體，然後我們投放了一些廣告和一些雜誌之類的東西。

And so I think in all the other locations we're opening are highly visible in the major markets, lots of trafficking around them, more what I call typical from a location point of view, not typical from a competitive or market point of view, they're going to be extraordinary galleries. They have some more extraordinary than others. Some of the markets are more important. In some locations, we took some of the Abercrombie locations that we might not have taken to get London and Paris because there are such incredible locations.

因此，我認為我們正在開設的所有其他地點在主要市場中都非常引人注目，周圍有大量的販運活動，從地點的角度來看，我稱之為典型，但從競爭或市場的角度來看，這並不典型，它們將成為非凡的畫廊。他們有一些比其他人更非凡的東西。有些市場更為重要。在某些地點，我們拍攝了一些我們可能不會拍攝到倫敦和巴黎的 Abercrombie 地點，因為那裡有如此令人難以置信的地點。

And so there's some things that are smaller that we're not investing much capital to, but we're going to open them and we're going to learn. But I'd say you can't use this as a proxy. It's not. I don't know if we'll ever build something like this again. We may. But it's not what anybody would typically do. But that's why everybody is so interested in it, and that's why they're writing about it, and that's why they're talking about it, and that's why the quality of people that are going there are people just probably wouldn't -- you might not have had them come as you open something ordinary, but they're coming because it's extraordinary. And yes, but it's just one small piece of a much bigger, much bigger composition and puzzle we're putting together just to build the RH into a truly dominant successful luxury design brand.

因此，有一些較小的事情我們不會投入太多資金，但我們將開放它們並學習。但我想說你不能用它作為代理。它不是。我不知道我們是否會再次建造這樣的東西。我們可能。但這不是任何人通常會做的事情。但這就是為什麼每個人都對它如此感興趣，這就是為什麼他們要寫它，這就是為什麼他們談論它，這就是為什麼去那裡的人的質量可能不會 -當你打開普通的東西時，它們可能不會出現，但它們會出現，因為它是非凡的。是的，但這只是我們正在拼湊的更大、更大的組成和謎題的一小部分，只是為了將 RH 打造成真正占主導地位的成功奢侈品設計品牌。

The international opening cadence. Yes, I think this is a start from the opening cadence. I like our start. I think yes, I was moderately aggressive, I think. So we've got -- we're planting a lot of flags in important places and really dominant fantastic real estate, and we're super excited about it. So -- but -- and I think we're going to learn a lot in the next 3 years.

國際化的開放節奏。是的，我認為這是從開場節奏開始的。我喜歡我們的開始。我想是的，我認為我有適度的攻擊性。所以我們——我們在重要的地方插了很多旗幟，並且真正佔據了主導地位，我們對此感到非常興奮。所以——但是——我認為我們將在未來三年內學到很多東西。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer.

您的下一個問題來自奧本海默的布萊恩·內格爾（Brian Nagel）。

My question with regard to the buyback. So you clearly [stepped up] buyback significantly here in the quarter. So the question I have is how should you think about this? Was this a more or less a kind of a onetime adjustment? Or is it -- should we expect the buyback to stay aggressive here going into future quarters?

我的問題是關於回購的。因此，您在本季度明顯[加大了]回購力度。所以我的問題是你應該如何看待這個問題？這或多或少是一種一次性調整？或者說，我們是否應該期望回購在未來幾個季度保持激進？

We communicate our intentions with every kind of buyback. We still have open to buy and the buyback, I think, a few hundred million, [$700 million]. And so yes, I think we made a relatively aggressive move here. And it's -- and we think we bought the 17% of the business at a really attractive price. And I think our shareholders are going to benefit from that. And if we're right with our view of the next couple of years, it's going to look like a really great investment. How aggressive will be in future quarters? I think you've looked at us historically, we're kind of opportunistic.

我們通過各種回購來傳達我們的意圖。我認為，我們仍然可以購買和回購幾億美元，[7 億美元]。所以，是的，我認為我們在這裡採取了相對激進的舉措。我們認為我們以非常有吸引力的價格購買了該業務 17% 的股份。我認為我們的股東將從中受益。如果我們對未來幾年的看法是正確的，那麼這將看起來是一項非常偉大的投資。未來幾個季度將會有多激進？我想你從歷史的角度來看我們，我們有點機會主義。

We're not like a big corporation that sets up a regular buyback every quarter and stuff like that. I mean if that was so smart to do, Warren Buffett would do it, right? Warren Buffett is a very opportunistic, repurchaser for their stock. And we're trying to be opportunistic investors, whether it's in our stock, whether in anything that we do. So we think this was a great time to deploy capital and buy back a meaningful position in our company. And it depends what the market does, depends on what we see and how we feel what we'll do in the future.

我們不像一家大公司，每個季度都會定期進行回購之類的事情。我的意思是，如果這樣做真的很聰明，沃倫·巴菲特也會這麼做，對嗎？沃倫·巴菲特是一個非常機會主義的股票回購者。我們正在努力成為機會主義投資者，無論是在我們的股票上，還是在我們所做的任何事情上。因此，我們認為這是部署資本並回購我們公司有意義的職位的好時機。這取決於市場的表現，取決於我們所看到的以及我們對未來將做什麼的感受。

Your next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle from Bank of America.

您的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Curtis Nagle。

I just wanted to go back on the point. You mentioned the shareholder letter just about some of these early signals that we're reading pretty positive in the Sourcebook launch, right, like you said, still early. But curious maybe just elaborate just a little bit in terms of what you meant? Are we seeing more people come back in the brand? Are we seeing conversion rates go up? The larger order size. Would just love to hear a little bit more about some of those signings in detail if you could.

我只是想回到正題。您提到了股東信中的一些早期信號，表明我們在資料冊的發布中看到了非常積極的信號，對吧，就像您說的，還為時過早。但好奇也許只是根據你的意思稍微詳細說明一下？我們是否看到更多人回歸該品牌？我們看到轉化率上升了嗎？訂單規模越大。如果可以的話，我很想听聽更多關於其中一些簽約的細節。

Yes. Well, look, the new collections that we think are the meaningful collections or acting like they're going to be meaningful collections. And the markets that the books are getting into look good. The responses look good. And so you just got to see it over a period of time. Our business is -- our business is -- it's driven mostly by advance. It's driven by people buying a new home, remodeling a home, or deciding to redecorate a home, all of which don't happen very often, right? So it's a very high transaction value kind of business.

是的。好吧，看，我們認為新系列是有意義的系列，或者表現得好像它們將是有意義的系列。這些書所進入的市場看起來不錯。反應看起來不錯。所以你只需要在一段時間內看到它。我們的業務是——我們的業務是——它主要是由進步驅動的。它是由人們購買新房、改造房屋或決定重新裝修房屋所驅動的，所有這些都不會經常發生，對嗎？所以這是一項交易價值非常高的業務。

So if you look at our customers over a period of several years and take their peak day, it's been roughly 80% to 85% of what they spend with us in kind of a 90-day period, right? And then they spend very little if you look out the next couple of years on the end. So you've got to kind of get them when they're buying. And that's why the business will get impacted more than others during a cyclical down market like this. And look, we know when we exited the holiday businesses and all the -- whether it's the Halloween business and the Christmas business and the accessories business, we're not very dominant in those businesses than we used to be. And in a down cycle, we wouldn't take as big of a hit because people are still buying the small things. We don't sell really much in small things, and we don't sell any kind of seasonal holiday stuff, right?

因此，如果您觀察我們的客戶幾年來的情況，並以他們的高峰日為例，您會發現，這大約是他們在 90 天內在我們這里花費的 80% 到 85%，對嗎？如果你看看接下來的幾年，他們的支出就很少了。所以當他們購買時你必須得到他們。這就是為什麼在這樣的周期性下行市場中，該業務將比其他業務受到更大的影響。看，我們知道，當我們退出假日業務和所有業務時，無論是萬聖節業務、聖誕節業務還是配飾業務，我們在這些業務中並不比以前佔據主導地位。在經濟下行週期中，我們不會受到那麼大的打擊，因為人們仍在購買小東西。我們不賣太多小東西，也不賣任何季節性節日的東西，對吧？

So we'll take bigger hits than other people in these down cycles, but we'll have bigger ups in the up cycles because of the mix and stuff like that. So -- but you're not going to see people right away like the books won't hit and you're not going to see the full potential. You need to let these books kind of get in. And usually, we get ramped in a book by 3 months. We hit it kind of ramp rate. And that's the in stocks happen well and so on and so forth, and things build and so on and so forth. Well, but -- we like everything we see. I mean, we really do.

因此，在這些下行週期中，我們將比其他人遭受更大的打擊，但由於混合和類似的因素，我們將在上行週期中遭受更大的上漲。所以——但是你不會馬上見到人們，就像書不會暢銷一樣，你也不會看到全部的潛力。你需要讓這些書進入。通常，我們會在 3 個月內開始閱讀一本書。我們達到了某種斜坡率。這就是庫存狀況良好，等等，事情建立等等。好吧，但是——我們喜歡我們所看到的一切。我的意思是，我們確實如此。

I mean the early signals are good, and we just want more time, and we want to transition and set a few stores with some of the new goods. We want in-stocks to build. We've got a lot of new things that some look like they're going to be runaways. And so you got to say, okay, how do I get in front of that? And how do you reallocate production time and so on and so forth. And you got some things that are -- you're always going to have things that outperformed what you think and underperformed than what you think. So you take all the pluses, minuses and aggregate those, but then focus your efforts to optimize your real winners. And -- but everything real early, everything looks, I'd say, real good for only 40%. So just keep that into context. I'll have a lot more to say next quarter. And if something really is meaningful enough, maybe we talk to everybody or do something sooner. We'll see. I mean this is -- we're very early. And we're very positive, but we're still not so positive housing market and environment. So it's going to be a conservative tone to a degree, but we'll be a lot smarter in another 8 weeks.

我的意思是早期信號很好，我們只是想要更多時間，我們想要過渡並開設一些商店，出售一些新商品。我們希望增加庫存。我們有很多新東西，有些看起來像是要失控的。所以你必須說，好吧，我該如何面對它？以及如何重新分配生產時間等等。你得到的一些東西——你總是會得到一些比你想像的更好和比你想像的差的東西。因此，你要綜合考慮所有優點和缺點，然後集中精力優化真正的贏家。而且——但一切都很早，一切看起來，我想說，真正好的只有 40%。所以只要將其放在上下文中即可。下個季度我會有更多話要說。如果某件事確實足夠有意義，也許我們會與每個人交談或盡快做某事。我們拭目以待。我的意思是——我們還很早。我們非常樂觀，但我們對房地產市場和環境仍然不那麼樂觀。因此，在某種程度上，這將是一種保守的基調，但在接下來的 8 週內我們會變得更加聰明。

And then yes, we'll have enough information to make moves to kind of think about investments in the first half of next year from a mailing perspective and how big, how deep do we go, how right are we, and how big do we go? But we're going to be some degree of right here. This is not going to be a swing in a miss. I mean, I don't want to jinx anything, but like we've been doing this a long time, and we're good at reading the data. So it's just -- I think it's what degree of really good to great is the outcome. And then what's not worth as a reset, and then how do you compound on kind of that reset?

然後，是的，我們將有足夠的信息來採取行動，從郵寄的角度考慮明年上半年的投資，以及我們的投資規模、深度、我們的正確性以及我們的規模有多大。去？但我們將在某種程度上做到這一點。這不會是一次失誤。我的意思是，我不想搞砸任何事情，但就像我們已經這樣做很長時間一樣，而且我們擅長讀取數據。所以我認為這就是結果從真正優秀到卓越的程度。那麼什麼是不值得重置的，然後你如何對這種重置進行複合？

Got it. And maybe just a follow-up. International, so you got -- new stores coming up, right, I think [technically] within the 4 months just looking at the newsletter. How are you feeling about those openings? And I guess, just curious why lead with those 2 cities?

知道了。也許只是後續行動。國際化，所以你會看到——新店即將開業，對吧，我認為[技術上]在 4 個月內，只要看看時事通訊。您對這些空缺感覺如何？我想，只是好奇為什麼要以這兩個城市為主導？

Those are just smaller ones. Yes, smaller ones that don't have a lot of capital like...

這些只是較小的。是的，沒有很多資本的較小的公司，例如......

No hospitality.

沒有熱情好客。

No hospitality or anything, right? So those are some locations that we thought the locations were decent. It will give us some -- without putting lot of capital in, just give us some feedback at the brand out there. I mean, look, I mean Abercrombie didn't have any bad locations. These were just -- we think we're going to get -- we're going to learn and get information, right? And then we'll decide how long might we stay in these locations because we acquired some leases. And are there bigger, better places to go? And what do we do? But I think one of the key things is just kind of get the brand out there in a good way. But the real key is what did we do first? When people met us or heard about us, what did they hear? What do they get pointed to, how do they think?

沒有招待什麼的，對吧？這些是我們認為不錯的一些地點。它會給我們一些——無需投入大量資金，只需給我們一些關於品牌的反饋。我的意思是，聽著，我的意思是阿伯克龍比沒有任何不好的地點。這些只是——我們認為我們將會得到——我們將學習並獲取信息，對嗎？然後我們將決定我們可以在這些地點停留多久，因為我們獲得了一些租約。還有更大、更好的地方可以去嗎？我們該怎麼辦？但我認為關鍵的事情之一就是以一種好的方式讓品牌脫穎而出。但真正的關鍵是我們首先做什麼？當人們遇見我們或聽說我們時，他們聽到了什麼？他們被指出了什麼，他們怎麼想？

So now we kind of not -- I don't think people will think Munich and Dusseldorf aren't beautiful galleries. They're just not going to be at the level of London and Paris and Milan and -- some of the other ones we're doing, yes. So -- but like there are locations that we were required to take to get some of the really key locations that we really wanted and that was Central London and the Paris location. So we think these are fine. Okay. Let's get going. Let's learn. Let's see how the business builds. Let's quickly learn how to operate in these different countries at a relatively low investment and much lower effort than doing the really big ones with a lot of work that take multiple years that -- and that have hospitality and other levels of complexity. So...

所以現在我們有點不——我認為人們不會認為慕尼黑和杜塞爾多夫不是美麗的畫廊。他們只是不會達到倫敦、巴黎和米蘭的水平，是的，我們正在做的其他一些項目。所以，就像我們需要去一些地點才能獲得我們真正想要的一些真正關鍵的地點，那就是倫敦市中心和巴黎地點。所以我們認為這些都很好。好的。我們走吧。讓我們來學習。讓我們看看業務如何建立。讓我們快速學習如何以相對較低的投資和更少的努力在這些不同的國家開展業務，而不是進行真正的大型業務，這些業務需要花費多年的時間進行大量工作，而且還涉及接待和其他復雜程度。所以...

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。

My question is around margins. How should we think about the product margins on the new product lines that you plan to be much sharper on pricing. So would you be thinking about consolidated gross margins in the mid-40% on a run rate basis going forward?

我的問題是關於利潤的。我們應該如何考慮您計劃在定價上提高的新產品線的產品利潤。那麼，您是否會考慮未來按運行率計算的綜合毛利率在 40% 左右？

I think we'll have more to say. I think we believe long-term emergence can be at our historical highs. I think we've got to kind of win some share here. And we got to play a little offense and just be sharper. And so there's some -- there's few points of investment we're making there. But we also have places where we're playing aggressively, but our margins are at historical highs. So it all tends like what we're targeting, how we're targeting certain categories. So we got more to say.

我想我們還有更多話要說。我認為我們相信長期崛起可以達到歷史高點。我認為我們必須在這裡贏得一些份額。我們必須打出一點進攻，並且變得更加敏銳。因此，我們在那裡進行的投資很少。但我們也有一些地方表現得很激進，但我們的利潤率卻處於歷史高位。所以這一切都類似於我們的目標是什麼，我們如何瞄準某些類別。所以我們還有更多話要說。

Yes, let's see how these books do when they get in, let's see what's performing, let's see what we're responding to. There's going to probably places where we've taken pricing that's really sharp. There are many places we're going to take pricing up, right? We've already got 1 collection that's kind of through the roof. It looks like our best collection ever, then we're going to probably take prices up this week. So just as we've got so much demand. And we think we can -- the product is still going to be positioned at a disruptive value. We'd probably just swung the pendulum a little too far on some -- this is -- the business we're in, it's day-to-day, week-to-week, you're learning, you're getting data, you're rethinking things, you're -- everything you do when you buy a new product is speculative based on backward-looking data. So you're never -- everything we buy is 100% wrong.

是的，讓我們看看這些書進入後表現如何，讓我們看看有哪些表現，讓我們看看我們對此有何反應。我們可能會在某些地方採取非常嚴格的定價。我們將在很多地方提高價格，對嗎？我們已經推出了 1 個系列，內容非常豐富。它看起來是我們有史以來最好的系列，那麼我們本周可能會提高價格。正如我們有如此多的需求一樣。我們認為我們可以——該產品仍將定位於具有顛覆性的價值。我們可能只是在某些方面搖擺得太遠了——這就是我們所處的業務，它是日復一日、周復一周的，你在學習，你在獲取數據，你正在重新思考事情，你——當你購買新產品時所做的一切都是基於回顧數據的推測。所以你永遠不會——我們買的所有東西都是 100% 錯誤的。

We've never bought anything and we go, that thing is exactly how it's selling. That's exactly right. So you're only suggesting, right, you're getting real data, real information. And then you're learning from that, and you're extrapolating that you're making the next best decisions. So I wouldn't jump to any conclusions just because of our, what I'd call, more short-term view of just trying to transition from the current kind of products to the next-generation products and playing offense from a disruptive value equation point of view. It's how we got here. I just think it's probably we should have kept that edge the way we did. And -- but you go through a period where you're in COVID and your business is running at 40% and your prices are going up and you've got -- you went -- we went through multiple rounds of tariff increases and price increases and supply chain increases and COVID increases and ocean freight increases.

我們從來沒有買過任何東西，然後我們就走了，那東西就是它的銷售方式。完全正確。所以你只是建議，對吧，你正在獲得真實的數據、真實的信息。然後你會從中學習，並推斷你正在做出下一個最佳決策。因此，我不會僅僅因為我們所謂的更短期的觀點而急於得出任何結論，即試圖從當前類型的產品過渡到下一代產品，並從破壞性的價值方程式中發起進攻。觀點看法。我們就是這樣來到這裡的。我只是認為我們可能應該像以前那樣保持這種優勢。而且——但是你經歷了一段時期，在新冠疫情期間，你的業務以 40% 的速度運行，你的價格上漲，你——你去了——我們經歷了多輪關稅和價格上漲增加，供應鏈增加，新冠肺炎增加，海運增加。

And I think -- that's why I made the comments I did at the end of my letter. Like, I think we're finally at the point of everything that kind of like -- made everything go up. With COVID is one of the kind of the backside of the cycle of everything going down and everybody -- everything washing through. And I think if you just like kind of take those years and say, okay, what are the best things I learned to now get them out of the way and you got to kind of rethink about your business, but I think -- yes.

我認為——這就是我在信末尾發表評論的原因。就像，我認為我們終於到了一切都讓一切都上漲的地步。新冠疫情是一切事物都在衰退、每個人都在被洗刷的循環的背面之一。我認為，如果你想花這些年的時間說，好吧，我現在學到的最好的東西是什麼，可以讓它們擺脫困境，你必須重新思考你的業務，但我認為 - 是的。

I just wouldn't make any long-term assumptions based on anything that's happening on a short-term basis right now in this transitionary period. I think you'll see us return to a really good model. If we get the inflection that we believe it's going to happen in the top line, especially where we think it will take as we get into kind of the first half of next year, you'll see our whole business model snap back.

我只是不會根據目前過渡時期短期發生的任何事情做出任何長期假設。我想你會看到我們回到一個非常好的模式。如果我們相信這將在營收中發生，特別是在我們認為明年上半年會發生的情況下，你會看到我們的整個商業模式迅速恢復。

Right. But just to be clear, Gary, so the margin -- the product margins on the new product that you guys are launching over the next, say, 6 to 9 months, is going to be lower by a few points and what you are earning on products during the pandemic. And then the real benefit that gross margins could be from volume, improved volumes?

正確的。但要明確的是，加里，所以利潤率——你們在接下來的 6 到 9 個月內推出的新產品的產品利潤率，將會降低幾個百分點，以及你們的收入疫情期間的產品。那麼毛利率的真正好處可能來自銷量，銷量的提高？

That's not necessarily.

那不一定。

So we weren't that specific. We don't guide gross margin, as you know, we don't disclose product margins. So we're trying to tell you just a directional flavor. And I think just to recap a lot of what Gary said, some products are going to be higher, some products going to be lower. We're not making a general statement. I'll just -- you can roll back the tape on what Gary said as far as the investment we're going to make, that's right. But as far as like what the future is going to look like, let's just let that play out, and we're going to make margin commentary, especially gross margin commentary after each quarter's results because, again, we don't guide that particular line.

所以我們沒有那麼具體。正如您所知，我們不指導毛利率，我們不披露產品利潤率。所以我們試圖告訴你一個方向性的味道。我認為回顧一下加里所說的很多內容，有些產品會更高，有些產品會更低。我們不做一般性聲明。我只是——你可以回滾加里所說的話，就我們將要進行的投資而言，這是對的。但至於未來會是什麼樣子，讓我們拭目以待吧，我們將在每個季度的業績公佈後發表利潤率評論，尤其是毛利率評論，因為我們不會指導特定的情況線。

Your next question comes from the line of Max Rakhlenko from TD Cowen.

您的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Max Rakhlenko。

So if we were to bucket your initiatives over the next 12 months to U.S. salary openings, European openings and then new product introductions, how would you rank order their magnitude? And then just for a clarification, how much of a refresh inside the gallery should we expect both over the next 1 to 2 quarters and then a year from now, both in terms of new products as well as the number of galleries that the new products will hit?

因此，如果我們將您未來 12 個月的舉措分為美國薪資空缺、歐洲職位空缺以及新產品推出，您會如何排列其規模？然後澄清一下，在接下來的 1 到 2 個季度以及一年後，我們應該期望畫廊內部有多少更新，無論是在新產品方面，還是在新產品推出的畫廊數量方面。會打嗎？

Sure. Like take the product, and the product is by far, the most important thing we're doing, right? And the new openings and building out the platform, those are -- it's the platform for the product. So what we're doing with the product is going to make the most meaningful impact over the next several years. So when you think about the investment in gallery floor sets, we just began setting RH Marin's next door headquarters, and we will all see it over the next -- it gets fine-tuned over the next couple of weeks. It's kind of a Phase 1 move of it. We have kind of -- right now, Phase 1 and Phase 2 and then we'll have a Phase 3. I think you'll see the majority of the galleries reset by Q1 of next year and as we...

當然。就像產品一樣，產品是迄今為止我們正在做的最重要的事情，對嗎？新的職位空缺和平台的建設，就是產品的平台。因此，我們對該產品所做的事情將在未來幾年產生最有意義的影響。因此，當您考慮對畫廊地板佈景的投資時，我們剛剛開始設置 RH Marin 的隔壁總部，我們都會在接下來的時間內看到它 - 它會在接下來的幾週內進行微調。這是它的第一階段舉措。我們現在有第一階段和第二階段，然後我們將有第三階段。我想你會看到大多數畫廊在明年第一季度重置，因為我們......

All the galleries.

所有畫廊。

Yes, all the galleries, yes, resets. And then you'll have some winners and some losers in kind of the product mix. And as we mailed the modern books going in, in January. I mean you're going to find out there are some things in modern that are probably really good and better than some things we might have just rolled out into the galleries and you'll make some adjustments. But I'd say we'll be -- by Q2 of next year, we'll be really educated especially by the late Q2, we'll have had 2 cycles of drops. We will have a lot of newness. We'll have kind of the first phase of major phase, second phase, still not as major as the first phase, but still more meaningful than normal.

是的，所有畫廊，是的，重置。然後，在產品組合方面就會有一些贏家和一些輸家。當我們在一月份郵寄現代書籍時。我的意思是，你會發現現代的一些東西可能真的很好，而且比我們剛剛在畫廊中推出的一些東西更好，你會做出一些調整。但我想說的是，到明年第二季度，我們將真正受到教育，特別是到第二季度末，我們將經歷兩個下降週期。我們會有很多新鮮感。我們將有主要階段的第一階段，第二階段，仍然不如第一階段那麼重要，但仍然比正常更有意義。

And we'll have had a good period of time to measure and have seen Phase 1 of the product transformation and first drops. And then we'll have some data on this second cycle and we'll be fully ready for the second half of next year, but to kind of keep optimizing it, right, because we're going to just get a lot of data, a lot of information, be making a lot of adjustments. And we'll keep doing things that kind of, what I'd say, build the trend.

我們將有一段很好的時間來衡量，並看到產品轉型的第一階段和第一批產品。然後我們將獲得第二個週期的一些數據，我們將為明年下半年做好充分準備，但要繼續優化它，對吧，因為我們將獲得大量數據，信息量很大，需要做很多調整。我們將繼續做一些我想說的創造趨勢的事情。

When you go through a big move like this, it's -- you're going to get some of it really right and you're going to get some of it wrong. And as long as you're throwing more things above the line and below the line, then you're going to learn and then you're going to make adjustments. And those adjustments will move the business higher, right? So I'd say we'll hit max inflection in Q2 doesn't mean we'll pick max run rate. When I talk about the inflection, I talked about the early inflection, then we'll build on that, right? So I would assume that the first half of next year will be very good and the second half of next year will be better than the first half.

當你經歷這樣的重大變動時，你會得到一些真正正確的東西，也會得到一些錯誤的東西。只要你在線上和線下投入更多的東西，你就會學習，然後你就會做出調整。這些調整將使業務進一步發展，對嗎？所以我想說我們會在第二季度達到最大拐點並不意味著我們會選擇最大運行率。當我談論詞形變化時，我談到了早期的詞形變化，然後我們將以此為基礎，對嗎？所以我認為明年上半年會非常好，下半年會比上半年更好。

Your next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。

I was hoping to follow up on the topic of operating margins. And I'm just hoping we could maybe frame up some of the puts and takes. Obviously, the full year implies kind of the mid-teens level for the operating margin. Can you help us think about maybe your latest thoughts on structurally what the operating margins look like in this world where you're opening up stores internationally in this world where you have a new product coming out, there's more source books. What do you think sort of normalized margins start looking like as you get back to revenue growth again.

我希望跟進營業利潤率的話題。我只是希望我們可以製定一些安排和要求。顯然，全年的營業利潤率大約在十幾歲左右。您能否幫助我們思考一下您對運營利潤結構的最新想法：在這個世界上，您在國際上開設商店，在這個世界上，您有新產品問世，有更多的資料書籍。當你再次恢復收入增長時，你認為正常化的利潤率會是什麼樣子？

I don't think, Brad, we're ready to talk about that. I think we're talking about some short-term changes, near-term impacts to the margin and especially moves related to -- and making some investments due to competitive reasons, as Gary had talked about. So what the other side of that looks like? We have our discussion with you about each year's guidance in March, so we'll do that and give you a better look then. But as far as -- as we sit here at the end of Q2 and the many sort of changes in levers we're playing forward with, we just don't have that visibility or that ability to tell you what the study looks -- steady state looks like other than as revenue grows and we get leverage in the business, we expect margin to increase from here -- I mean, where that baseline level is. I'll let Gary chime in here.

布拉德，我認為我們還沒有準備好談論這個。我認為我們正在談論一些短期變化、對利潤率的近期影響，尤其是與加里談到的由於競爭原因而進行的一些投資相關的舉措。那麼它的另一面是什麼樣的呢？我們會在三月份與您討論每年的指導，因此我們會這樣做並讓您更好地了解。但就我們在第二季度末坐在這里以及我們正在推進的槓桿的多種變化而言，我們只是沒有那種可見性或能力來告訴你這項研究的內容——穩定狀態看起來除了隨著收入增長並且我們在業務中獲得槓桿作用之外，我們預計利潤率將從這裡開始增加- 我的意思是，基線水平在哪裡。我會讓加里插話。

No, I think that's correct. I mean, I think we're -- for the most part, we're giving you color today, maybe slightly more different or a different angle on the color than what's written in the letter. But we don't want to kind of talk about things that we don't -- that we haven't really released, right? And we're not really releasing kind of that far out. But yes, all of us on this call are going to know a lot more next quarter and the next quarter. And we're either going to be more right or more wrong. We think we're going to be more right than wrong. And everything that we said we believe in.

不，我認為這是正確的。我的意思是，我認為我們今天在很大程度上為您提供了顏色，可能與信中所寫的顏色略有不同或角度不同。但我們不想談論我們沒有真正發布的事情，對嗎？我們並沒有真正發布那麼遠的內容。但是，是的，我們參加這次電話會議的所有人都將在下個季度和下個季度了解更多信息。我們要么會更正確，要么會更錯誤。我們認為我們的正確多於錯誤。我們所說的一切都是我們所相信的。

And it's -- there's some level of speculation, of course, but there's a lot of data that we have based on doing what we're doing, introducing newness, mailing Sourcebooks, resetting floors. We know all the lift factors and what will happen if we do this, that. And we're directionally usually right on those things. And so we've been rusty. We've been somewhat out of the game, and we're going to come back into the game in a very impactful way. So yes, we're looking forward to kind of get into data. But look, the good news is, the early data doesn't look bad. It looks good. So, so far, so good. That's as much as we know right now.

當然，存在一定程度的猜測，但是我們有很多數據是基於我們正在做的事情、介紹新鮮事物、郵寄資料手冊、重置樓層而獲得的。我們知道所有的升力因素，以及如果我們這樣做、那樣做會發生什麼。我們在這些事情上的方向通常是正確的。所以我們已經生鏽了。我們已經有點退出遊戲了，我們將以一種非常有影響力的方式回到遊戲中。所以，是的，我們期待著進入數據領域。但看，好消息是，早期數據看起來還不錯。看上去不錯。所以，到目前為止，一切都很好。這就是我們現在所知道的。

Well, Gary, maybe if I could ask you another way. When you did some significant share repurchase back, and I think it was in 2017. You later described that time as a period where you've kind of taken the racetrack off the -- car off the racetrack and done a lot of surgery on it. Does it feel like it's that significant of a time for you as you think about how you're positioned in the company?

好吧，加里，也許我可以用另一種方式問你。當你進行了一些重大的股票回購時，我認為那是在 2017 年。你後來將那段時間描述為一段時期，你把賽車從賽道上拿了下來，並對它做了很多手術。 。當您考慮自己在公司的定位時，是否覺得這對您來說是一個重要的時刻？

Yes, bigger than that. We've redesigned the whole fleet of cars. It's really the biggest repositioning of the business we've ever went through. And, yes, I think the best work we've ever done. So it's much bigger. I think it's going to be much more significant than that. And look, we just bought back a lot of stock. We played -- we put our money where our mouth is, right? We took a really big position in the stock, and we've allocated a couple of billion dollars, that's twice as big, I think, it's the buyback back then.

是的，比那還要大。我們重新設計了整個車隊。這確實是我們經歷過的最大的業務重新定位。是的，我認為這是我們做過的最好的工作。所以它要大得多。我認為這將比這更重要。看，我們剛剛買回了大量股票。我們玩遊戲——我們說到做到，對吧？我們在股票上持有非常大的頭寸，我們分配了數十億美元，我認為這是當時回購的兩倍。

So we wouldn't have done that if we weren't confident and our board wouldn't have let us do that unless they weren't -- unless they were confident, right? So this is a fully informed kind of position we're taking from an investment perspective on inventory, on share repurchases, but we're not a new team. It's experienced team and experience Board. Like you said, we've done this at just a smaller magnitude. We were a smaller company, too. So we're a bigger company to place in a bigger bet. So I kind of like where things are. I think, look, there's -- everybody is speculating, right? Like if you just like -- just look at what happened in this quarter, our stock started this quarter the day after earnings, $274 a share -- $247 a share. At the end of Q2, it ended today at $369. It peaked at $402. It went up 49%, and it peaked at 63% up. Within a quarter, with the only information and disclosures was we bought back 17% of the shares. So everybody could do the math about how many shares we bought back.

因此，如果我們沒有信心，我們就不會這樣做，我們的董事會也不會讓我們這樣做，除非他們沒有信心，除非他們有信心，對嗎？因此，這是我們從庫存和股票回購投資角度採取的一種完全知情的立場，但我們不是一個新團隊。這是經驗豐富的團隊和經驗豐富的董事會。就像你說的，我們只是在較小的規模上做到了這一點。我們也是一家規模較小的公司。因此，我們是一家規模更大的公司，可以下更大的賭注。所以我有點喜歡事物所在的地方。我想，看，每個人都在猜測，對嗎？就像如果你喜歡 - 只要看看本季度發生的事情，我們的股票在本季度盈利後的第二天就開始上漲，每股 274 美元 - 每股 247 美元。截至第二季度末，今日收盤價為 369 美元。最高價為 402 美元。上漲了49%，最高時上漲了63%。一個季度內，我們唯一的信息和披露就是回購了 17% 的股票。所以每個人都可以計算一下我們回購了多少股票。

And because there's new disclosures that have to be made every time, my ownership goes up by 1 point, there's a lot of disclosures. There is a lot of filings. And so you'd thought, hey, you don't now. They're buying back the stock up 17%, this go up 20%, [this got 14%]. I mean it went all the way up to 63%. And at the end of today, it was up 49%. After hours, it's still up 36%, even though it's down, I don't know, 28%, was it now 28 points down, something like that. They just flashed it over here a second ago.

而且因為每次都必須進行新的披露，所以我的所有權增加了 1 個點，所以有很多披露。有很多備案。所以你會想，嘿，你現在不會了。他們回購股票上漲了 17%，這次上漲了 20%，[這次上漲了 14%]。我的意思是它一直上升到 63%。截至今天收盤，該指數上漲了 49%。幾個小時後，它仍然上漲了 36%，儘管它下跌了，我不知道，28%，是不是現在下跌了 28 個點，類似的東西。他們一秒鐘前剛剛把它閃到了這裡。

So -- and people like, wow -- like, well, let's get a bad day now. Looking a bad day. I don't know we've had 1 million good days, 1 million bad days within a quarter -- not a million, but like so many -- so much volatility in the market because so many people are guessing like what's next, what's this, when is the Fed going to ease? What -- are they buying back stock? What does this mean? And I would just say, stay focused on what we write. You don't want to know what we mean, reread the letter. That's why we write these letters. So it's on there. It's not random comments from a conference call that can sometimes be less focused and just everything I spent a lot of time right in those letters. And the team spent a lot of time together saying like crafting what we believe is the best version of the truth and what we believe is going to happen with the business. We're not going to always be right. But yes, we have a pretty good track record over a long time.

所以——人們會說，哇——就像，好吧，讓我們度過糟糕的一天吧。看起來日子不好過。我不知道我們在一個季度內經歷了100 萬個好日子，100 萬個壞日子——不是一百萬，但就像很多一樣——市場波動如此之大，因為很多人都在猜測接下來會發生什麼，會發生什麼這個，美聯儲什麼時候寬鬆？他們正在回購股票嗎？這是什麼意思？我只想說，專注於我們所寫的內容。你不想知道我們的意思，請重讀這封信。這就是我們寫這些信的原因。所以它就在那裡。這不是電話會議中的隨意評論，有時可能不太集中，而是我在這些信中花了很多時間的所有內容。團隊花了很多時間在一起討論如何制定我們認為是事實的最佳版本以及我們相信業務將會發生的事情。我們不會永遠是對的。但是，是的，我們長期以來擁有良好的記錄。

And so -- but there's just a lot of volatility at the time of speculation, right? When -- or is the Fed going to ease? Or are they going to tighten the housing market bottoming? Is the pent-up demand, is there going to be more inventories as it relates to our market. And at the end -- and RH's new books going to work or the good is going to be, or is the customer is going to accept the goods, where the margin is going to be at, all kinds of stuff. We just put out a release today that confirmed the year's numbers, confirm them and stock stand $30 after hours. I don't think any of it made sense going up. I don't think it makes sense right now going down, but maybe it does just to kind of say, hey, where should it be? But yes, but we're all kind of looking at the same information. I mean that's the funny thing.

所以——但是投機時波動很大，對嗎？美聯儲什麼時候或者會放鬆貨幣政策？或者他們會收緊房地產市場觸底反彈？被壓抑的需求是否會增加，因為這與我們的市場有關。最後，RH 的新書將會發揮作用，或者商品將會出現，或者客戶將會接受商品，利潤將會在哪裡，各種各樣的東西。我們今天剛剛發布了一份新聞稿，確認了今年的數據，盤後股價維持在 30 美元。我認為上升沒有任何意義。我認為現在下降沒有意義，但也許它只是說，嘿，它應該在哪裡？但是，是的，但我們都在查看相同的信息。我的意思是這就是有趣的事情。

So I'd say it's like one of the things you learn. If you really study Warren Buffett, there's a real long-term consistent view about how they operate and what they do. And yes, we try to learn from people like that or Bernard Arnault, and how he's built LVMH and how people have built things. And even if you look at -- like a lot of people think that there's so much inconsistency with Elon Musk, I see consistency. He consistently innovates. He consistently keeps innovating. And so have you ever hit a launch target on anything or an intra target? No, we consistently doesn't because he doesn't manage the business. He leads the business and he innovates consistently. And so there's always going to be kind of more fluctuation short term. But long term, he's building one of the most incredible businesses the world's ever seen.

所以我想說這就像你學到的東西之一。如果你真正研究沃倫·巴菲特，就會發現他們對他們的運作方式和行為有著真正長期一致的看法。是的，我們試圖向伯納德·阿諾特這樣的人學習，學習他如何創建 LVMH 以及人們如何創建事物。即使你看——就像很多人認為埃隆·馬斯克有很多不一致之處，我也看到了一致性。他不斷創新。他始終如一地不斷創新。那麼，您是否曾經達到過任何物體的發射目標或內部目標？不，我們一直不這樣做，因為他不管理業務。他領導業務並持續創新。因此，短期內總會出現更多的波動。但從長遠來看，他正在打造世界上最令人難以置信的企業之一。

And so I was just kind of stand back and look at the long term. I hear people snipe it Elon Musk, oh he bought Twitter and that's stupid, he turned it into X, like whatever, those are little side shows. The guy is building one of the great companies in the world. Like people say, oh, he lost his head of HR or he lost this like -- now if you look at it over a number of years, he's building one of the best thing in the world. And anybody that's bet against them has lost a lot of money.

所以我只是退後一步，著眼長遠。我聽到人們批評埃隆·馬斯克，哦，他買了 Twitter，那太愚蠢了，他把它變成了 X，就像其他什麼一樣，這些都是小插曲。這傢伙正在建立世界上最偉大的公司之一。就像人們說的那樣，哦，他失去了人力資源主管，或者他失去了這個——現在，如果你回顧多年來的情況，你會發現他正在打造世界上最好的東西之一。任何做空他們的人都損失了很多錢。

And I think we're just trying to build one of those great things. And so we just try to stay focused on the long term, learn from all the short-term data, but don't overreact. We know we made some mistakes, and we know we are arrogant in pricing, and we know we kind of -- or muscle atrophied a bit in new product introductions and trying to ramp back up wasn't our -- yes, it wasn't our best work. We learned from that. We're going to snap back from that. And you will see us not only snap back, you'll see us better than you've ever seen us. And I feel real confident like, and so we'll see how it plays out. We'll see how right we are.

我認為我們只是在努力打造其中一件偉大的事情。因此，我們只是嘗試著眼於長期，從所有短期數據中學習，但不要反應過度。我們知道我們犯了一些錯誤，我們知道我們在定價方面傲慢，我們知道我們有點 - 或者在新產品推出中肌肉萎縮了一點，並試圖恢復增長不是我們 - 是的，它不是'這是我們最好的工作。我們從中吸取了教訓。我們將從中恢復過來。你不僅會看到我們迅速恢復，還會看到比你以前見過的更好的我們。我真的很有信心，所以我們會看看結果如何。我們會看看我們是多麼正確。

Your next question comes from the line of Jonathan Matuszewski from Jefferies.

您的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Jonathan Matuszewski。

It's on the contemporary business. In the past, you referenced $1 billion milestone over 3 years. Just hoping to see if we could get an update on how that business is looking today as more product has been rolled out across the galleries and how we should maybe think about the run rate of that business, maybe by the time of early next year, which would be a couple of months after the October source book mailing.

這是關於當代商業的。過去，您提到了 3 年內 10 億美元的里程碑。只是希望看看隨著更多產品在畫廊中推出，我們是否能夠了解該業務今天的最新情況，以及我們應該如何考慮該業務的運行率，也許到明年初，這將是十月份資料書郵寄後的幾個月。

Yes. I think about the totality of what we're doing here. I wouldn't just isolate contemporary. Like, contemporary, it's a new book. Do we think it's going to be a billion dollars? Yes, we do. But you've really got a -- you've just got to look at the whole thing in concert, right? The biggest book is our insurers book. We'll continue to be Contemporary -- Modern #2, Contemporary #3, [Tampa] might ramp bigger than Modern. We may make decisions like a lot of times, what exactly goes in Contemporary versus what goes in Modern versus what goes of Interiors can be somewhat subjective. Like there's sometimes some blurred lines that are going to be there.

是的。我思考了我們在這裡所做的一切。我不會僅僅孤立當代。就像，當代的，這是一本新書。我們認為這會是十億美元嗎？是的，我們願意。但你確實需要——你必須一致地看待整個事情，對嗎？最大的書是我們的保險公司書。我們將繼續保持當代風格——現代#2、當代#3，[坦帕]可能會比現代更大。我們可能會像很多次一樣做出決定，當代、現代、室內的具體內容可能有些主觀。就像有時會出現一些模糊的界限。

I'd say -- I wouldn't go kind of micro like that right now. I think you'll miss the bigger idea. The bigger idea is the totality of the product transformation we're making. And I think about it is -- we're going to mail about 1,200 to 1,300 pages of product and across that 70% to 80% newness. I think the next biggest book that competes with us is 228 pages. We haven't mailed anywhere near those number of pages in a long time. And we've never had this much new product hit a market like this. The design quality, the quality of the make and the -- what we believe the value equation. And any time we've done anything like this, we've moved the business meaningfully. And so this is the biggest thing we've done. I think it will be the biggest -- the most meaningful thing that we've ever done strategically. It will reset the company for the next 5 years.

我會說——我現在不會採取那種微觀的方式。我想你會錯過更大的想法。更大的想法是我們正在進行的產品轉型的整體。我認為，我們將郵寄大約 1,200 到 1,300 頁的產品，其中 70% 到 80% 是新的。我認為與我們競爭的下一本最大的書是 228 頁。我們已經很長一段時間沒有郵寄過接近這些頁數的郵件了。我們從未有過如此多的新產品進入這樣的市場。設計質量、製造質量以及我們所相信的價值方程式。每當我們做這樣的事情時，我們都會有意義地推動業務發展。這是我們做過的最重要的事情。我認為這將是我們戰略上做過的最大、最有意義的事情。它將在未來5年重置公司。

Your next question comes from the line of Steve McManus from BNP Paribas.

您的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的史蒂夫·麥克馬納斯。

So a question on suppliers. We're seeing more and more suppliers go out of business here, a pretty big 1 on the high-end side last week. So just curious what you're seeing with respect to the financial health of some of your key suppliers? Any challenges that you're facing right now that's worth calling out?

這是一個關於供應商的問題。我們看到越來越多的供應商在這裡倒閉，上周高端供應商倒閉的數量相當大。那麼只是好奇您對一些主要供應商的財務狀況有何看法？您現在面臨的任何挑戰值得提出嗎？

Yes. I mean, you're probably referencing one of our suppliers that filed for bankruptcy, Mitchell Gold and Bob Williams, really terrific people. It's an unfortunate thing. I think they went through some private equity hands and there's some -- they stepped back in the business and get some wrong leadership. It's that decision kind of goofed up the company. And there's, I don't know, probably $30 million, $40 million of demand with them. We can resource it all pretty easily. We don't see any meaningful interruptions or anything. They're not one of our big suppliers. So -- and I think it just goes to show how hard it is to do every part of the business, right, when they're -- typically, there were a furniture manufacturing company, really great aesthetic, great marketing, great style.

是的。我的意思是，您可能指的是我們申請破產的供應商之一，米切爾·戈爾德（Mitchell Gold）和鮑勃·威廉姆斯（Bob Williams），他們都是非常棒的人。這是一件不幸的事。我認為他們經歷了一些私募股權投資，還有一些——他們退出了這個行業，並得到了一些錯誤的領導。這個決定讓公司陷入了困境。我不知道，他們的需求可能是 3000 萬美元、4000 萬美元。我們可以很容易地為這一切提供資源。我們沒有看到任何有意義的中斷或任何事情。他們不是我們的大供應商之一。所以——我認為這只是表明了做好業務的每個部分是多麼困難，對吧，當他們——通常，有一家家具製造公司，真正偉大的審美，偉大的營銷，偉大的風格。

They got into the retail business, too, and that added a lot of complications. It's hard to when you try to do both. You try to be a wholesale business, a retail business, manufacturing business, you're kind of in 3 kind of complex businesses right there. So I think there's always going to be some people that kind of don't make it through different down cycles like this. Could there be more -- there could be more on the retail side, there probably will be. But yes, we don't see any real fundamental risk to our business that is going to be meaningful. Otherwise, we would have talked about it in disclosure.

他們也進入了零售業，這增加了很多複雜性。當你同時嘗試兩者時，很難做到這一點。你嘗試做批發業務、零售業務、製造業務，你屬於三種複雜的業務。所以我認為總會有一些人無法度過這樣的不同的下行週期。零售方面可能會有更多，很可能會有。但是，是的，我們認為我們的業務沒有任何真正有意義的基本風險。否則，我們會在披露中討論它。

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的邁克爾·拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。

Gary, is it right to interpret your statement that you expect the business to inflect in the first half of next year to mean that it's going to flatten out in the first half of next year before resuming a growth trajectory in the second half of next year? And my follow-up question is, would you expect, based on everything that you know today that your totality of investment spend independent of it's going to be in the gross margin or in the SG&A is going to be greater than equal to or less than what you're spending this year?

加里，您認為業務將在明年上半年發生變化，這意味著業務將在明年上半年趨於平緩，然後在明年下半年恢復增長軌跡，這樣解釋是否正確？我的後續問題是，根據您今天所知道的一切，您是否期望您的投資支出總額（無論毛利率或銷售管理費用）將大於等於或小於今年你花什麼？

Sure, sure. So Yes. Let me just try to be real clear and direct that -- we expect the business to inflect in the second half of this year, right? Meaning -- and when I talk about inflection, what does that mean? That means a meaningful move in trend and this means to the upside, right? So we think our business will inflect and our trend will change to the upside vis-a-vis where we've been trending, where -- how the rest of the market is performing. We think we'll have an inflection that will make a meaningful move against all those metrics, right? We'll inflect up against our trends. We'll inflect up against the market trends, we'll inflect up against the competitive trends.

一定一定。所以是的。讓我試著明確而直接地說——我們預計業務將在今年下半年發生變化，對吧？含義——當我談論詞形變化時，這意味著什麼？這意味著趨勢的有意義的變動，這意味著向上，對吧？因此，我們認為我們的業務將會發生變化，我們的趨勢將會改變，相對於我們一直以來的趨勢、市場其他部分的表現而言，我們的趨勢將會向上。我們認為我們將會有一個轉折，將對所有這些指標採取有意義的行動，對吧？我們將根據我們的趨勢進行調整。我們將迎合市場趨勢，我們將迎合競爭趨勢。

We think we will reach kind of a peak of that inflection of this first phase from these books. We think we will hit that in the first half of next year. So I'd say, think about an inflection happening here over the rest of this year will inflect up. And then in the first half of next year, there will be another kind of inflection above whatever that run rate is, right? And that's against our trends, against the industry's trends, against our competitors' trends.

我們認為，通過這些書，我們將達到第一階段的拐點的頂峰。我們認為我們將在明年上半年實現這一目標。所以我想說，想想今年剩下的時間裡這裡發生的變化將會出現變化。然後在明年上半年，無論運行率如何，都會出現另一種變化，對嗎？這違背了我們的趨勢，違背了行業的趨勢，也違背了我們競爭對手的趨勢。

And then as we cycle and get into the second half of next year, I think we will build on that trend. But it may not be as bigger than inflection, but it will be a building of momentum again, kind of disregarding any kind of meaningful thing that happens in the economy and whatever happens in the economy, I would be surprised if it's more dramatic than our positive inflection, right? So if the market goes down, some step down, our inflection point will be bigger than that step down. Does that make sense? Is that more clear?

然後，當我們循環進入明年下半年時，我認為我們將在這一趨勢的基礎上繼續發展。但它可能不會比拐點那麼大，但它將再次形成動力，不管經濟中發生的任何有意義的事情以及經濟中發生的任何事情，如果它比我們的戲劇性更大，我會感到驚訝積極的變化，對嗎？因此，如果市場下跌，某些人下跌，我們的拐點將比下跌幅度更大。那有意義嗎？這樣是不是更清楚了？

I think I catch your drift. If you've been trending down high teens, low 20% range, the inflection is, look, we're not going to be trending down at this range. The counterargument would be low. You're going to be facing easier comparisons. It's harder for us to dissect how much is due to which is the market getting better?

我想我明白你的意思了。如果你的趨勢一直在高十幾歲、低 20% 的範圍內，那麼拐點是，看，我們不會在這個範圍內出現下降趨勢。反對的聲音會很低。您將面臨更容易的比較。我們更難剖析市場好轉的原因有多大？

Yes. No, you just got to think about -- think about all those things I just said, what's the industry doing? What are the key competitors are doing? What are we doing? We're going to inflect against all of that, right? So it's not just our trend. Our trend will be one of those elements, but we're going to inflect against the industry. We're going to inflect against the key competitors. That's how to think about. What I would say, I mean, just that, which means we'll be taking market share, right? So I think we've been giving market share. We will go from giving market share to taking market share.

是的。不，你只需要想想——想想我剛才說的所有這些事情，這個行業在做什麼？主要競爭對手在做什麼？我們在做什麼？我們將改變這一切，對嗎？所以這不僅僅是我們的趨勢。我們的趨勢將是這些元素之一，但我們將針對該行業做出改變。我們將針對主要競爭對手採取行動。就是這樣想的。我想說的是，這意味著我們將佔據市場份額，對嗎？所以我認為我們一直在提供市場份額。我們將從給予市場份額轉向佔領市場份額。

That's clear. And then as you think about 2024, will the magnitude of the investment that you're making, the larger than, smaller than or equal to this year?

很清楚。然後，當您考慮 2024 年時，您正在進行的投資規模會大於、小於或等於今年嗎？

We haven't guided to that yet. So yes, we're not prepared to kind of talk about that.

我們還沒有對此進行指導。所以，是的，我們不准備談論這個。

Your next question comes from the line of Cristina Fernández from Telsey Advisory Group.

您的下一個問題來自 Telsey Advisory Group 的 Cristina Fernández。

I wanted to go back to the advertising spend and the shift you're making to the twice a year cycle. Like, does this mean you go back to 4% of sales spent on advertising? I know the last couple of years, it's very low or with the product introductions you're making and the new store openings in Europe. Well, does it make sense for that spend to be at a higher level? Just want to get a sense of directionally where that spending goes?

我想回到廣告支出以及你們對每年兩次週期的轉變。比如說，這是否意味著您將把銷售額的 4% 重新花在廣告上？我知道過去幾年，它非常低，或者隨著您正在推出的產品以及在歐洲開設的新店而增加。那麼，這筆支出處於更高水平是否有意義？只是想了解支出的方向？

I don't know yet. We'll know a lot more when we see the inflection in the business.

我還不知道。當我們看到業務的變化時，我們會了解更多。

And we have no further questions in the queue at this time. Gary Friedman, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.

目前我們隊列中沒有其他問題。加里·弗里德曼（Gary Friedman），我會將電話轉回給您進行結束語。

Great. Thank you, operator. Thank you, everyone, for your time and interest. Thank you to Team RH for your leadership and efforts. Your hard work is going to pay off. And thank you to all our partners around the world who are part of this team. Your support and efforts mean the world to us. And I can tell you, all 3 constituencies that are all probably listening into this call, I think, share the sentiment that we shared with you today. I don't think we've ever been more excited about the future. And I believe we'll demonstrate that to the other constituencies and that's the shareholders that are on this call. So thank you, everyone, for your time and attention today. We look forward to the next few quarters. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝你，接線員。謝謝大家的時間和興趣。感謝 RH 團隊的領導和努力。你的努力將會得到回報。感謝我們在世界各地屬於這個團隊的所有合作夥伴。您的支持和努力對我們來說意味著一切。我可以告訴你，我認為所有可能正在收聽這次電話會議的 3 個選區都分享了我們今天與你分享的觀點。我認為我們從未對未來如此興奮過。我相信我們會向其他選民以及參加這次電話會議的股東證明這一點。謝謝大家今天的時間和關注。我們期待接下來的幾個季度。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與，您現在可以斷開連接。