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Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the RH Fourth Quarter 2023 Q&A Call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the conference over to Allison Malkin of ICR. Please go ahead.
女士們先生們,謝謝你們的支持。我的名字是,今天我將擔任你們的會議操作員。在此,我歡迎大家參加 RH 2023 年第四季問答電話會議。 (操作員指示)我現在想將會議轉交給 ICR 的艾莉森·馬爾金 (Allison Malkin)。請繼續。
Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD
Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter fiscal year 2023 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Preston, Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our press release issued today.
謝謝。大家下午好。感謝您參加我們的 2023 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Gary Friedman;和財務長傑克普雷斯頓。在開始之前,我想提醒您注意我們的法律免責聲明,即我們今天將做出聯邦證券法含義內的某些前瞻性聲明,包括有關我們業務前景的聲明以及我們新聞中引用的其他事項今天發布的版本。
These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our press release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.
這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件以及今天發布的新聞稿,以了解可能影響我們結果的風險因素的更詳細描述。另請注意,這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見,我們不承擔根據新資訊或未來事件修改或公開發布這些前瞻性陳述的任何修改結果的義務。
Also, during this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in today's financial results press release. A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.rh.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.
此外,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論非公認會計原則財務措施,這些措施調整我們的公認會計原則結果以消除某些項目的影響。您將在今天的財務業績新聞稿中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多資訊以及這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 指標的調整表。我們網站 ir.rh.com 的投資者關係部分也提供本次電話會議的現場直播。這樣,我就把電話轉給加里。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Thank you, Allison, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm going to start with our prepared comments, which are included in our press release and shareholder letter. To our people, partners and shareholders, fiscal 2023 was a year of diversity, innovation and investment for team RH as we face the most challenging housing market in 3 decades, while investing in the most compelling product transformation and platform expansion in our history.
謝謝你,艾莉森,大家下午好。我將從我們準備好的評論開始,這些評論包含在我們的新聞稿和股東信中。對於我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東來說,2023 財年對RH 團隊來說是多元化、創新和投資的一年,因為我們面臨3 年來最具挑戰性的房屋市場,同時投資於我們歷史上最引人注目的產品轉型和平台擴展。
We have positioned the RH brand to gain significant market share in 2024 and beyond while building the foundation for a global expansion across the United Kingdom, Europe, Australia and the Middle East over the next several years. While aggressively investing in the downturn has put pressure on short-term results, it also positions us to capitalize on the long-term opportunities to present themselves during times of disruption and dislocation.
我們將 RH 品牌定位為在 2024 年及以後獲得顯著的市場份額,同時為未來幾年在英國、歐洲、澳洲和中東的全球擴張奠定基礎。雖然在經濟低迷時期的積極投資給短期績效帶來了壓力,但它也使我們能夠利用長期機會,在混亂和混亂時期展現自己。
We've demonstrated our confidence in our strategy by repurchasing 7.6 million shares of our stock during fiscal 2022 and 2023, representing approximately 35% to the shares outstanding and believe that investment will create meaningful long-term value for our shareholders.
我們在 2022 財年和 2023 財年回購了 760 萬股股票,約佔已發行股票的 35%,這顯示了我們對策略的信心,並相信投資將為我們的股東創造有意義的長期價值。
Turning to our fourth quarter and full year results. Revenue was negatively impacted by $40 million in the fourth quarter due to the severe January weather and shipping delays related to the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea. We do expect the majority of the deferred revenue will be realized in 2024 when transit times normalize. Adjusted operating margin was 9.1% and 13%, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 15.3% and 18.2% for the fourth quarter and the full year, respectively, reflecting deleverage from lower revenues, increased markdowns to support our product transformation and investments in international expansion.
轉向我們的第四季和全年業績。由於一月份的惡劣天氣以及紅海持續衝突導致的運輸延誤,第四季度的收入受到了 4000 萬美元的負面影響。我們確實預計大部分遞延收入將在 2024 年運輸時間正常化時實現。第四季和全年調整後營業利潤率和調整後EBITDA 利潤率分別為9.1% 和13%,調整後EBITDA 利潤率分別為15.3% 和18.2%,反映出收入下降、降價力度加大以支持我們的產品轉型和國際擴張投資帶來的去槓桿作用。
"Every act of creation is first an act of destruction," Pablo Picasso. We have spent the past 18 months destroying the former version of ourself and are in the process of unleashing what we believe is an exponentially more inspiring and disruptive RH brand, inclusive of the most prolific product transformation and platform expansion in the history of our industry.
「每一個創造行為首先都是破壞行為,」巴勃羅·畢卡索。在過去的 18 個月裡,我們摧毀了自己以前的版本,並正在釋放我們認為更具啟發性和顛覆性的 RH 品牌,其中包括我們行業歷史上最多產的產品轉型和平台擴展。
Our product transformation plans for 2024 include: The launch of our new RH Outdoor Sourcebook, the most dominant and disruptive collection of luxury outdoor furniture in the market arrived in homes late February through mid-March with 14 new collections. The initial response has been exceptional, and we expect to gain significant market share in this important category in fiscal 2024.
我們 2024 年的產品轉型計畫包括: 推出新的 RH Outdoor Sourcebook,這是市場上最具主導性和顛覆性的豪華戶外家具系列,於 2 月底至 3 月中旬進入家庭,共有 14 個新系列。最初的反應非常好,我們預計 2024 財年將在這一重要類別中獲得可觀的市場份額。
The unveiling of our new RH Modern Sourcebook is scheduled to be in home late April through early May with 30 new collections across living, dining, bedroom and bathroom, including original designs from the Harvey Probber estate, one of the most influential modern designers of the past century. We expect the launch of RH Modern will further accelerate our demand trends in the second quarter and throughout the second half of 2024.
我們新的RH 現代資料冊預計將於4 月底至5 月初在國內推出,其中包含30 個涵蓋客廳、餐廳、臥室和浴室的新系列,其中包括Harvey Probber 莊園的原創設計,Harvey Probber 莊園是當今最具影響力的現代設計師之一。上個世紀。我們預計 RH Modern 的推出將進一步加速我們在 2024 年第二季和整個下半年的需求趨勢。
The second mailing of our new RH Interiors Sourcebook is planned to be in home late May through early June with new collections and improved in-stocks, which should also provide an additional lift to demand in the second quarter and continue to build through the second half of 2024. We will be mailing an updated RH Contemporary Sourcebook in late July through early August with collections -- with new collections and a compelling value proposition, which we believe will also accelerate demand trends.
我們新的 RH Interiors Sourcebook 的第二次郵寄計劃於 5 月底至 6 月初在國內寄出,其中包含新系列和改進的庫存,這也將進一步提振第二季度的需求,並在下半年繼續增加2024年。我們將在7 月下旬至8 月初郵寄更新的RH Contemporary 資料集,其中包含新的收藏品和引人注目的價值主張,我們相信這也將加速需求趨勢。
A second mailing of the RH Modern Sourcebook and third mailing of our RH Interiors Sourcebook are expected in the second half of 2024 with additional new collections, refreshed galleries and improved in-stocks. These mailings will result in a doubling of our Sourcebook circulation and customer contacts in 2024 versus 2023. Our data would suggest the increased number of contacts alone should provide another lift factor for our business.
RH 現代資料手冊的第二次郵寄和 RH 室內設計資料手冊的第三次郵寄預計將於 2024 年下半年進行,其中包括更多新系列、更新的畫廊和改進的庫存。這些郵件將使我們的資料冊發行量和客戶聯繫量在 2024 年比 2023 年增加一倍。我們的數據表明,僅增加聯繫數量就應該為我們的業務提供另一個提升因素。
We are also increasing print and digital advertising across major home design publications in 2024. You will see our ads in Architectural Digest, Elle Decor, Veranda, Gallerie, World of Interiors, Luxe Interiors and Design, Business of Home, The Financial Times, plus The Wall Street Journal and T Magazine design issues.
到2024 年,我們還將在主要家居設計出版物上增加印刷和數位廣告。您將在《建築文摘》、《Elle Decor》、《Veranda》、《Gallerie》、《室內世界》、《豪華室內設計與設計》、《家居商業》、《金融時報》等媒體上看到我們的廣告《華爾街日報》和《T》雜誌的設計問題。
As you know, we acquired Waterworks in 2016, arguably the most desired brand in the luxury bath and kitchen category. The Waterworks team has done an outstanding job over the past 7 years, further elevating the brand and building a highly profitable business model that can scale. Waterworks, like most other luxury brands in the home space, generate the vast majority of their revenues from the trade market, selling to architects, designers, developers and builders.
如您所知,我們於 2016 年收購了 Waterworks,這可以說是豪華浴室和廚房類別中最受歡迎的品牌。 Waterworks 團隊在過去 7 年中表現出色,進一步提升了品牌並建立了可擴展的高利潤商業模式。與家居領域的大多數其他奢侈品牌一樣,Waterworks 的絕大多數收入來自貿易市場,銷售給建築師、設計師、開發商和建築商。
While RH has a significant trade business, a vast majority of our revenues are generated by consumers. We believe there is a significant opportunity to amplify the Waterworks business on the RH platform by exposing the brand to a much larger audience, similar to how we've expanded other mostly trade-focused businesses and brands over the years.
雖然 RH 擁有重要的貿易業務,但我們的絕大部分收入都是由消費者產生的。我們相信,透過向更多受眾展示品牌,有一個重大機會可以在 RH 平台上擴大 Waterworks 業務,類似於我們多年來擴展其他主要以貿易為中心的業務和品牌的方式。
Our plan is to launch with a 3,500 square foot Waterworks Showroom in our newest and largest Design Gallery in Newport Beach, California, opening in the fourth quarter of 2024. We will also be developing a Waterworks Sourcebook with plans for a test mailing in 2025. Waterworks today is just shy of a $200 million business with mid- to high teens EBITDA that we believe has the potential to become a $1 billion global brand on our platform.
我們的計劃是在加州紐波特海灘最新、最大的設計畫廊中開設一個3,500 平方英尺的Waterworks 陳列室,於2024 年第四季度開業。我們還將開發一本Waterworks 資料手冊,併計劃在2025年進行測試郵寄。如今,Waterworks 的業務規模接近 2 億美元,EBITDA 處於中高水平,我們相信它有潛力在我們的平台上成為價值 10 億美元的全球品牌。
Let me shift your attention to the expansion of our platform. Our plan to expand the RH brand globally, address new markets locally and transform our North American Galleries represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity. Our platform expansion plans for 2024 include: the opening of 5 North American Design Galleries, including Cleveland, which opened last week; Palo Alto; Raleigh; Newport Beach; and Montecito, all with integrated RH interior design offices, restaurants and wine bars.
讓我將您的注意力轉移到我們平台的擴展上。我們計劃在全球擴展 RH 品牌、開拓本地新市場並改造我們的北美畫廊,這代表著一個數十億美元的機會。我們 2024 年的平台擴張計畫包括: 開設 5 個北美設計畫廊,其中包括上週開業的克利夫蘭畫廊;帕洛阿爾托;羅利;紐波特海灘;和 Montecito,均設有整合式 RH 室內設計辦公室、餐廳和酒吧。
The opening of our first RH Interior Design Studio in Palm Desert, California. We believe there's an opportunity to address new markets locally by opening Design Studios in neighborhoods, towns and small cities where the wealthy and affluent live, visit and vacation as well as augmenting some of our Design Galleries in larger markets with additional design services in stand-alone design studios.
我們的第一家 RH 室內設計工作室在加州棕櫚沙漠開幕。我們相信,透過在富人和富人居住、參觀和度假的社區、城鎮和小城市開設設計工作室,以及透過額外的標準設計服務來擴大我們在較大市場中的一些設計畫廊,有機會在當地開拓新市場。獨自設計工作室。
We will also be opening 2 international galleries, 1 in Brussels, which opened last week, and Madrid opening this summer. Both galleries are located in beautiful historical buildings that elevate our products and render our brand more valuable. Unfortunately, RH Paris has been delayed until spring of '25 due to construction restrictions relating to preparations for the Olympic Games this summer.
我們還將開設 2 家國際畫廊,其中 1 家上週在布魯塞爾開業,1 家於今年夏天在馬德里開業。兩個畫廊都位於美麗的歷史建築中,這些建築提升了我們的產品並使我們的品牌更有價值。不幸的是,由於與今年夏天奧運會籌備工作有關的施工限制,RH Paris 已被推遲到 25 年春季。
We are also pleased to announce RH Sydney, The Gallery in Double Bay, a 5-story development with a rooftop restaurant and wine bar, received council approval last month with plans to open in fall of 2026 in what we believe is the most vibrant and desirable location in Australia.
我們也很高興地宣布,位於雙灣的RH Sydney, The Gallery 是一棟5 層樓高的開發項目,設有屋頂餐廳和酒吧,上個月獲得了議會批准,計劃於2026 年秋季開業,我們認為這裡是最具活力和活力的地區。澳洲理想的地理位置。
Now let me turn you to our outlook. While we expect business conditions to remain challenging until interest rates ease and the housing market begins to rebound, we expect our demand trends to accelerate throughout 2024. Due to the extensive transformation of our assortment, we do expect revenue to lag demand during the year by approximately 4 to 8 points until we read and react to new collections, reduce back orders and shorten special order lead times. Therefore, we will be guiding and reporting both demand and revenue growth each quarter during fiscal 2024 so shareholders and investors can accurately analyze the business.
現在讓我向您介紹一下我們的前景。雖然我們預計在利率放鬆和房地產市場開始反彈之前商業環境仍將充滿挑戰,但我們預計 2024 年的需求趨勢將加速。由於我們品種的廣泛轉型,我們預計今年的收入將落後於需求約4 到8點,直到我們閱讀新系列並做出反應,減少延期交貨並縮短特殊訂單的交貨時間。因此,我們將在 2024 財年每季指導和報告需求和收入成長,以便股東和投資者能夠準確分析業務。
We believe it's also important to note that we are forecasting to end the year with an increased backlog of approximately $110 million to $130 million due to the revenue -- due to revenue lagging demand throughout 2024, which will negatively impact operating margin, adjusted EBITDA margin by approximately 140 basis points for the year. Additionally, investments and start-up costs to support our international expansion are estimated to be an approximately 200 basis point drag for 2024.
我們認為,值得注意的是,我們預計到年底,由於收入的原因,積壓訂單將增加約1.1 億至1.3 億美元——由於整個2024 年收入滯後於需求,這將對營業利潤率、調整後EBITDA利潤率產生負面影響今年上漲約140個基點。此外,預計到 2024 年,支持我們國際擴張的投資和啟動成本將拖累約 200 個基點。
For fiscal 2024, we are forecasting demand growth of 12% to 14% and revenue growth of 8% to 10% on a 52- versus 52-week basis. We are forecasting adjusted operating margin in the range of 13% to 14% and adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 18% to 19%. For the first quarter of fiscal 2024, we are forecasting demand growth of positive mid- to single digits and revenues of negative low single digits. We are forecasting adjusted operating margin in the range of 6% to 7% and adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 12% to 13%.
對於 2024 財年,我們預期 52 週與 52 週相比,需求成長 12% 至 14%,營收成長 8% 至 10%。我們預計調整後營業利潤率將在 13% 至 14% 之間,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將在 18% 至 19% 之間。對於 2024 財年第一季,我們預期需求將出現中位數至個位數的正成長,營收將出現低個位數的負成長。我們預計調整後營業利潤率將在 6% 至 7% 之間,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率將在 12% 至 13% 之間。
Now let me turn you to the RH business vision and ecosystem, the long view. We believe there are those with taste and no scale and those with scale and no taste. And the idea of scaling taste is large and far reaching. Our goal to position RH as the arbiter of taste for the home has proven to be both disruptive and lucrative, as we continue our quest to build the most admired brand in the world. Our brand attracts the leading designers, artisans and manufacturers, scaling and rendering their work more valuable across our integrated platform, enabling RH to curate the most compelling collection of luxury home products on the planet.
現在讓我向您介紹 RH 的業務願景和生態系統,即長期願景。我們相信,有品味但沒有規模的,也有有規模但沒有品味的。提升品味的想法是宏大而深遠的。隨著我們繼續追求打造世界上最受尊敬的品牌,我們將 RH 定位為家居品味仲裁者的目標已被證明既具有顛覆性又有利可圖。我們的品牌吸引了領先的設計師、工匠和製造商,在我們的整合平台上擴展他們的作品並使他們的作品更有價值,使 RH 能夠策劃全球最引人注目的豪華家居產品系列。
Our efforts to elevate and expand our collection will continue with the introductions of RH Couture, RH Bespoke, RH Color, RH Antiques & Artifacts, RH Atelier and other new collections scheduled to launch over the next decade. Our plan to open immersive design galleries in every major market will unlock the value of our vast assortment, generating revenues of $5 billion to $6 billion in North America and $20 billion to $25 billion globally.
我們將繼續努力提升和擴展我們的產品系列,推出 RH Couture、RH Bespoke、RH Color、RH Antiques & Artifacts、RH Atelier 以及其他計劃在未來十年推出的新系列。我們計劃在每個主要市場開設沉浸式設計畫廊,這將釋放我們龐大品種的價值,在北美創造 50 億至 60 億美元的收入,在全球創造 200 億至 250 億美元的收入。
Our strategy is to move the brand beyond curating and selling product to conceptualizing and selling spaces, by building an ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces that establishes the RH brand as a global thought leader taste and place maker. Our products are elevated and rendered more valuable by our architecturally inspiring galleries, which are further elevated and rendered more valuable by our interior design services and seamlessly integrated hospitality experience.
我們的策略是透過建立產品、場所、服務和空間的生態系統,使 RH 品牌成為全球思想領袖、品味和場所製造者,使品牌從策劃和銷售產品轉向概念化和銷售空間。我們的產品透過我們的建築靈感畫廊而提升並變得更有價值,而我們的室內設計服務和無縫整合的酒店體驗進一步提升了我們的產品並變得更有價值。
Our hospitality efforts will continue to elevate the RH brand as we extend beyond the 4 walls of our galleries into RH Guesthouses, where our goal is to create a new market for travelers seeking privacy and luxury in the $200 billion North American hotel industry. Additionally, we are creating bespoke experiences like RH Yountville, an integration of food, wine, art and design in the Napa Valley. RH1 and RH2, our private jets, and RH3, our luxury yacht, that is available for charter in the Caribbean and Mediterranean, where the wealthy and affluent visit and vacation.
我們的酒店工作將繼續提升 RH 品牌,因為我們將畫廊的 4 面牆延伸到 RH Guesthouses,我們的目標是在價值 2000 億美元的北美酒店業中為尋求隱私和奢華的旅行者創造一個新市場。此外,我們正在創造像 RH Yountville 這樣的客製化體驗,它將納帕谷的美食、美酒、藝術和設計融為一體。 RH1 和 RH2 是我們的私人飛機,RH3 是我們的豪華遊艇,可在加勒比海和地中海地區包租,是富裕人士造訪和度假的地方。
These immersive experiences expose new and existing customers to our evolving authority in architecture, interior design and landscape architecture. This leads to our long-term strategy of building the world's first consumer-facing architecture, interior design and landscape architecture services platform inside our galleries, elevating the RH brand and amplifying our core business by adding new revenue streams while disrupting and redefining multiple industries.
這些身臨其境的體驗讓新舊客戶了解我們在建築、室內設計和景觀設計領域不斷發展的權威。這導致我們的長期策略是在我們的畫廊內建立世界上第一個面向消費者的建築、室內設計和景觀設計服務平台,透過增加新的收入來源來提升RH 品牌並擴大我們的核心業務,同時顛覆和重新定義多個行業。
Our strategy comes full circle as we begin to conceptualize and sell spaces. Moving beyond the $170 billion home furnishings market into the $1.7 trillion North American housing market with the launch of RH Residences, fully furnished luxury homes, condominiums and apartments with integrated services that deliver taste and time value to discerning time-starved consumers.
當我們開始概念化和銷售空間時,我們的策略就回到了原點。隨著 RH Residences 的推出,RH Residences 的推出超越了 1700 億美元的家居市場,進入了 1.7 兆美元的北美房屋市場。
The entirety of our strategy comes to life digitally with The World of RH, an online portal where customers can explore and be inspired by the depth and dimension of our brand. Our authority as an arbiter of taste will be further amplified when we introduce RH Media, a content platform that will celebrate the most innovative and influential leaders who are shaping the world of architecture and design.
我們的整個策略透過 The World of RH 以數位方式實現,這是一個線上入口網站,客戶可以在其中探索我們品牌的深度和維度並從中獲得靈感。當我們推出 RH Media 時,我們作為品味仲裁者的權威將進一步增強。RH Media 是一個內容平台,旨在表彰塑造建築和設計世界的最具創新性和影響力的領導者。
Our plan to expand the RH ecosystem globally multiplies the market opportunity to $7 trillion to $10 trillion, one of the largest and most valuable addressed by any brand in the world today. A 1% share of the global market represents a $70 billion to $100 billion opportunity. Our ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces inspires customers to dream, design, dine, travel and live in a world thoughtfully curated by RH, creating an emotional connection unlike any other brand in the world.
我們計劃在全球擴展 RH 生態系統,將市場機會增加到 7 兆至 10 兆美元,這是當今世界上任何品牌所面臨的最大、最有價值的市場機會之一。全球市場 1% 的份額代表著 700 億至 1000 億美元的機會。我們的產品、場所、服務和空間生態系統激勵客戶在 RH 精心策劃的世界中夢想、設計、用餐、旅行和生活,創造出不同於世界上任何其他品牌的情感聯繫。
Taste can be elusive, and we believe no one is better positioned than RH to create an ecosystem that makes taste inclusive, and by doing so, elevating and rendering our way of life more valuable. Never underestimate the power of a few good people who don't know what can't be done. For the past 23 years, we've heard others tell us what can't be done. And for the past 23 years, we failed to listen. We avoided bankruptcy while being accused of lunacy. While others have been shrinking and closing stores, we've been building the largest and most inspiring spaces in the world.
品味是難以捉摸的,我們相信沒有人比 RH 更適合創造一個讓品味具有包容性的生態系統,並透過這樣做來提升我們的生活方式並使其更有價值。永遠不要低估少數好人的力量,他們不知道什麼是不能做的。在過去的 23 年裡,我們聽到其他人告訴我們什麼是不能做的。在過去的 23 年裡,我們沒有傾聽。我們在被指責精神錯亂的同時避免了破產。當其他公司一直在縮減和關閉商店時,我們一直在建造世界上最大、最鼓舞人心的空間。
When Wall Street didn't think our stock was worth buying, we bought 60% of it ourselves. When everyone told us we should be working from home, we're in the Center of Innovation working on rebuilding our new home and it's almost ready for primetime. From the largest product transformation in our history, to the most inspiring retail experiences in the world, from couches to caviar, beds to bellinis, architecture to airplanes, homes to hotels, guesthouses, from Pittsburgh to Paris, Los Angeles to London, Boston to Brussels, Miami to Munich and San Francisco to Sydney, soon the world will be within our reach.
當華爾街認為我們的股票不值得買時,我們自己買了60%。當每個人都告訴我們應該在家工作時,我們正在創新中心致力於重建我們的新家,它幾乎已經準備好迎接黃金時段了。從我們歷史上最大的產品轉型,到世界上最鼓舞人心的零售體驗,從沙發到魚子醬,從床到貝里尼,從建築到飛機,從住宅到酒店,賓館,從匹茲堡到巴黎,洛杉磯到倫敦,波士頓到布魯塞爾、邁阿密到慕尼黑、舊金山到悉尼,很快世界就將觸手可及。
Never underestimate the power of a few good people who don't know what can't be done, especially these people. Onward Team RH, Carpe Diem.
永遠不要低估少數不知所措的好人的力量,尤其是這些人。前進 RH 團隊,及時行樂。
And now we'll open the call to questions.
現在我們將開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的西蒙·古特曼(Simeon Gutman)。
Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director
Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director
I think the most important element of the outlook is the sales guide because it hasn't been growing and now we're flipping to growth. So I wanted to see if we can approach it from two sides, and I'd love to hear your perspective. First, on one side, if you end up meeting or beating this outlook that you've given us, if we look back, I mean, it's clearly could be the products resonating more than you thought? Or should we look at it as you gave us more of a conservative trajectory than what even the business is implying today?
我認為前景中最重要的因素是銷售指南,因為它一直沒有成長,而現在我們正在轉向成長。所以我想看看我們是否可以從兩個方面來解決這個問題,我很想聽聽你的觀點。首先,一方面,如果您最終實現或超越了您給我們的這一前景,如果我們回顧過去,我的意思是,產品顯然可能比您想像的更能產生共鳴?或者我們應該像你給我們提供的比今天的業務所暗示的更保守的軌跡來看待它?
And on the other side of that, if you end up falling short of it, was it either product didn't resonate or maybe there was more pent-up demand and you're overreading that curve? Curious how you think about both sides of it.
另一方面,如果你最終未能達到目標,是否是產品沒有引起共鳴,或者可能存在更多被壓抑的需求,而你過度解讀了這條曲線?很好奇你如何看待這兩個面向。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
I think you just covered the answer in many ways. I would say, look, we have visibility to trends in our business that can help us connected dots. I mean you read the letter a few times and you look at the kind of pieces that will -- that add up to directionally where we're going, we feel very confident in the plan we've laid out, the guidance we've laid out. And this is what we've been working on for the past 18 to almost 24 months.
我認為您剛剛從很多方面涵蓋了答案。我想說,看,我們可以了解業務趨勢,這可以幫助我們連接點。我的意思是,你讀了幾遍這封信,然後看看其中的內容,這些內容加起來就能確定我們前進的方向,我們對我們制定的計劃和我們的指導非常有信心佈置。這就是我們過去 18 到近 24 個月以來一直在努力的事情。
So there's been a lot of thought, a great attention in detail. We've been flying at the highest levels, and we've been into the lowest levels of detail inside the company and the organization to rebuild the brand from the bottom up. And I think this is the best work we've done. I think this is the best team we've ever had. And I think what we're about to do is going to create another leapfrog for RH just as we've done every 7 or 8 years, if you looked at our history when we've done transformations like this.
所以我們進行了很多思考,對細節非常關注。我們一直在最高層面上飛行,我們也深入到公司和組織內部最底層的細節,以自下而上地重建品牌。我認為這是我們所做的最好的工作。我認為這是我們有史以來最好的團隊。我認為我們要做的就是為 RH 創造另一個跨越,就像我們每 7 或 8 年所做的那樣,如果你看看我們進行這樣的轉型的歷史的話。
So we're highly confident. We think we have enough data and information to read. If you were in our Center of Innovation, right now, you'd be looking at all the whiteboards that I'm looking at that every category of our business laid out every month with demand this year, last year, 2 years ago, percentages, trends, book drops, collection newnesses. I mean this is built up at a very detailed level.
所以我們非常有信心。我們認為我們有足夠的數據和資訊可供閱讀。如果你現在在我們的創新中心,你會看到我正在看的所有白板,我們業務的每個類別每月都會列出今年、去年、兩年前的需求百分比、趨勢、圖書掉落、收藏新鮮事。我的意思是這是在非常詳細的層面上建立的。
No one has a crystal ball. We're going to -- I tell the team as we buy inventory or do anything. And every plan we have is some degree wrong. The question is, is it more right than wrong? And is it directionally right? And have you identified the risks in the plan and the things that maybe you haven't seen as you've been building something up from an optimistic vision perspective? And we believe we've done that. We are -- we've been here with all of the key leaders, all the key team members at every level building this.
沒有人擁有水晶球。當我們購買庫存或做任何事情時,我會告訴團隊。我們的每一個計劃在某種程度上都是錯誤的。問題是,正確多於錯誤嗎?而且方向正確嗎?您是否已識別出該計劃中的風險以及您在從樂觀的願景角度構建某些內容時可能沒有看到的事情?我們相信我們已經做到了。我們與所有關鍵領導者、所有級別的所有關鍵團隊成員一起在這裡建立這個專案。
Again, for a long time, talking about how many trips to Asia, how many trips to Europe, how many -- we don't have meetings in our company. We have adventures we say because we say meetings, it's about arranging or organizing the status flow and ventures is about leading people somewhere they've never been, doing things they've ever done and in search of better ways and brighter days.
再一次,很長一段時間,談論有多少次去亞洲旅行,有多少次去歐洲旅行,有多少次——我們公司沒有會議。我們說冒險是因為我們說會議,它是關於安排或組織狀態流程,而冒險是關於帶領人們去他們從未去過的地方,做他們曾經做過的事情,並尋找更好的方法和更光明的日子。
So we've been through countless adventures. We've -- I think we've -- look, all the data that's available and created new data. So I personally feel great. I think the team feels great. I think it's -- if you came here and you spoke to the people really doing the work, I think they all feel great. Our competition might not feel great over the next couple of years, but that's not really our problem.
所以我們經歷了無數的冒險。我們——我想我們已經——查看了所有可用的數據並創建了新數據。所以我個人感覺很棒。我認為團隊感覺很棒。我認為,如果你來到這裡並與真正從事這項工作的人交談,我認為他們都感覺很棒。在接下來的幾年裡,我們的競爭可能感覺不太好,但這不是我們真正的問題。
Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director
Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director
As a follow-up, if I can ask about Europe, if -- what -- if you can share how much of Europe sales is in this guide? And I guess you'll ever get comfortable sharing the Europe forecast, I don't know every gallery may be different than there's a wide range. And then I get the 200 basis points, that's, I think, the first time, maybe we've got an explicit quantification. Does that taper quickly or slowly? And is that like the peak or call it, international investment and now that revenues build, even as you add more galleries, we don't step back from that level further.
作為後續行動,如果我可以問歐洲,如果 - 什麼 - 如果您可以分享本指南中歐洲銷售額的多少?我想你會很樂意分享歐洲的預測,我不知道每個畫廊可能都不同,但範圍很廣。然後我得到了 200 個基點,我想,也許我們第一次得到了明確的量化。是快速減少還是緩慢減少?這是否就像高峰或稱之為國際投資一樣,現在收入增加了,即使你增加了更多的畫廊,我們也不會從這個水平進一步後退。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
It's a long question. So let me maybe take the same amount of time and process it. Look, Europe, I'd say there's few points if you kind of motor up and think about, we're in the very early process of doing -- first stand at back and say what have we done so far? Last year -- mid-June or so, we opened an extraordinary, a never seen before, multidimensional experience in the English countryside that we opened through a lens of conversation, not commerce.
這是一個很長的問題。所以讓我也許花同樣的時間來處理它。聽著,歐洲,我想說的是,如果你想一想,我們正處於做事的早期過程中——首先站在後面,說說我們到目前為止做了什麼?去年,大約六月中旬,我們在英國鄉村開啟了一次非凡的、前所未見的多維體驗,我們透過對話而非商業的方式開啟了這種體驗。
And the why that we've articulated between that was we, fortunately and unfortunately, we did a package real estate deal that enabled us to get 2 irreplaceable locations in London and Paris, but also required us to take other locations we had to open sooner. As a result, these smaller markets are not benefiting as we first up, and we didn't think they would from the brand awareness (inaudible) the key markets would provide, right, and will provide.
我們在這之間闡明的原因是,幸運和不幸的是,我們進行了一項一攬子房地產交易,使我們能夠在倫敦和巴黎獲得兩個不可替代的地點,但也要求我們採取必須盡快開業的其他地點。因此,這些較小的市場並沒有像我們一開始那樣受益,而且我們認為他們不會從關鍵市場將提供的品牌知名度(聽不清楚)中受益,正確的,並將提供。
So RH England was born out of that kind of conundrum of (inaudible) not really opening in the places we'd want to open first. And there was a big expense if we didn't do that and other lease requirements and other hurdles that would have been a little messy. So that's what drove us because we weren't going to be able to open London and Paris first, that drove us to say what can we do? What would we do? What kind of investment would we make that would introduce RH to Europe in the broader United Kingdom in an inspiring and unforgettable fashion? And why is that important?
因此,RH England 的誕生就是為了解決(聽不清楚)在我們想要先開放的地方沒有真正開放的難題。如果我們不這樣做,就會產生很大的費用,而其他租賃要求和其他障礙會有點混亂。這就是我們的動力,因為我們無法先開放倫敦和巴黎,這促使我們問我們能做什麼?我們會做什麼?我們將進行什麼樣的投資才能以鼓舞人心且令人難忘的方式將 RH 引入歐洲甚至更廣泛的英國?為什麼這很重要?
I think it's important because just about every luxury brand in the world is from Europe and the U.K., except for a couple. You can argue that we have Ralph Lauren and Tiffany. Ralph isn't pure luxury, right? So there's a bigger broader distribution strategy there. That's a big part of that business. So if you said pure luxury, what are the pure luxury brands in the U.S. that are really top of mind internationally and have been for a long time? I'd say it's Tiffany. And the French just bought it, like a couple of years ago.
我認為這很重要,因為世界上幾乎所有奢侈品牌都來自歐洲和英國,除了幾個。你可以說我們有 Ralph Lauren 和 Tiffany。拉爾夫並不是純粹的奢侈品,對吧?因此,這裡有一個更廣泛的分銷策略。這是該業務的重要組成部分。那麼,如果你說純奢侈品,那麼在美國,哪些純奢侈品牌真正在國際上名列前茅,而且已經存在很長時間了?我想說的是蒂芙尼。法國人剛買了它,就像幾年前一樣。
So I'd start with first and foremost, I wouldn't say Americans are described internationally as tastemakers, as architectural thought leaders and so on and so forth. You look at the beautiful historical architecture across Europe and the U.K. and then you look at the U.S. and you go, okay, if you start on the East Coast, you've got some and you start moving West and it kind of falls off a cliff pretty quickly, right?
因此,我首先要說的是,我不會說美國人在國際上被描述為時尚引領者、建築思想領袖等等。你看看歐洲和英國美麗的歷史建築,然後看看美國,好吧,如果你從東海岸開始,你已經有了一些,然後你開始向西移動,它就有點下降了。懸崖很快,對吧?
And so as an American brand that hasn't really been doing what it's been doing for very long. And it looks like we did 15 to 20 years ago kind of little (inaudible) with [backtstrappers] -- selling [backstrappers] with moon pies. Things that (inaudible). How do you want to introduce yourself if you want to earn the respect of the tastemakers, of the placemakers, of the people that kind of not only set the standard but set the direction for consumers broadly around the world. And that's how we came up with the idea for RH England and opened in Aynhoe Park in a historic 17th Century Estate, 73 acres. That's why we invested in probably among the best architecture and design libraries that's not an institutional location, but private collection in the world. That's why we have 3 restaurants, the third one opening this spring is -- we wanted to introduce ourselves in a way that no brand has introduced it out to Europe and the United Kingdom.
因此,作為一個美國品牌,它一直在做的事情並沒有持續很長時間。看起來我們在 15 到 20 年前對 [backtstrappers] 做了一點(聽不清楚)——用月餅出售 [backtstrappers]。那些(聽不清楚)的事情。如果你想贏得時尚引領者、場所營造者以及那些不僅為世界各地的消費者制定標準,而且為消費者指明方向的人們的尊重,你想如何介紹自己呢?這就是我們提出 RH England 的想法的原因,並在艾恩霍公園 (Aynhoe Park) 一座歷史悠久的 17 世紀莊園內開業,佔地 73 英畝。這就是為什麼我們投資了可能是最好的建築和設計圖書館之一,它不是一個機構場所,而是世界上的私人收藏。這就是我們擁有 3 家餐廳的原因,今年春天開業的第三家餐廳是——我們希望以一種沒有任何品牌向歐洲和英國介紹過的方式來介紹自己。
Did we think we're going to do a lot of volume out there? No. Not initially. Did we think we're going to open market to the Internet? Yes, and we've learned from that. And we've learned likely from how the design trade profited from. That came to us and connected with us and interacted. And we also knew that we're opening somewhere where in the kind of winter months in the late fall and earliest the spring months, it gets dark as early as 3:30 out there. And it's really cold and not a lot of people are going out there.
我們是否認為我們會做大量的工作?不,一開始不是。我們是否認為我們要向網路開放市場?是的,我們已經從中吸取了教訓。我們很可能從設計行業如何獲利中了解到了這一點。它來到我們身邊並與我們聯繫並互動。我們也知道,我們要在深秋的冬季和最早的春季的某個地方開業,那裡的天最早在 3:30 就天黑了。而且天氣真的很冷,出門的人也不多。
I mean, they might have been going out there more during COVID because there's nowhere to go. Lastly, you want to be big city. So we did something very unusual. That's why if you go to that gallery or if you've been there, the first thing you see when you walk into the entry, it's a unicorn. And it talks about how unusual and inspiring we believe the place is. And I think we've introduced ourselves in a way that's captured people's attention and imagination.
我的意思是,在新冠疫情期間,他們可能會更多地出去,因為無處可去。最後,你想成為大城市。所以我們做了一些非常不尋常的事情。這就是為什麼如果你去那個畫廊或你去過那裡,當你走進入口時,你看到的第一件事就是一隻獨角獸。它講述了我們認為這個地方是多麼不尋常和鼓舞人心。我認為我們的自我介紹方式能夠吸引人們的注意力和想像。
And I think the conversation is the right conversation. And I think that conversation will build as we're open for a full spring summer, and we have all 3 restaurants open, and we'll really learn a lot more. But that's why we did that, right? Since the next galleries we've opened, have been opened in weeks -- we opened in November -- mid-November or something in the 20 weeks for the (inaudible).
我認為這次對話是正確的對話。我認為,當我們在整個春夏開放時,這種對話就會建立起來,而且我們的 3 家餐廳都營業了,我們真的會學到更多。但這就是我們這樣做的原因,對吧?自從我們開設的下一個畫廊以來,已經在幾週內開放了 - 我們在 11 月 - 11 月中旬或在 20 週內開放(聽不清楚)。
Yes. Okay. So yes, so (inaudible) in places we've never been and not necessarily what I'd say like Paris and London are 2 of the most famous cities in the world. There are 2 cities anchored in fashion and style and so on and so forth. And I'd throw Milan in there, too. Hence, we also have -- we're making, I think, we're doing something extraordinary in Milan, but those all were going to take longer. And so we're not opening in the order that we wanted to open in. But it's always our intention to open in Paris and London, first in iconic locations from a brand awareness point of view.
是的。好的。所以是的,所以(聽不清楚)在我們從未去過的地方,也不一定像我所說的那樣,巴黎和倫敦是世界上最著名的兩個城市。有兩個城市以時尚和風格等為基礎。我也會把米蘭也放進去。因此,我認為我們正在米蘭做一些非凡的事情,但這些都需要更長的時間。因此,我們不會按照我們想要的開業順序開業。但我們始終打算在巴黎和倫敦開業,從品牌知名度的角度來看,首先是在標誌性地點。
But what we've learned so far, I'd tell you, it's like there's a higher mix of trade than we anticipated or have seen anywhere. And trade is exterior/interior designers and more of a B2B business, hospitality [contracts] kind of design. So it's a much higher mix of trade right out of the gate. And what -- should that surprise us? Not really because the consumer doesn't really know us yet. But if you're someone who's aware of the home, if you're aware of design, if you're an interior designer, if you're doing commercial projects or residential projects, you know RH. And you may have likely shopped from us in the U.S. or you've been to our key galleries.
但我告訴你,到目前為止我們所了解到的情況是,貿易組合比我們預期或在任何地方看到的都要高。貿易是外部/室內設計師,更多的是 B2B 業務、酒店[合約]類型的設計。因此,這是一個更高層次的貿易組合。這應該讓我們感到驚訝嗎?並非如此,因為消費者還不真正了解我們。但如果您了解家居、了解設計、室內設計師、從事商業項目或住宅項目,您就會知道 RH。您可能在美國從我們這裡購物過,或者您去過我們的主要畫廊。
And so what I like about that it's really the right people and the most influenced people who are out indexing today. We didn't anticipate that, we think about that. But when I do think about that, I think I'm very, very happy about that. I think it wouldn't be good if it indexed the other way because you want to get the right people, especially where -- if you think about where we're trying to take this brand.
所以我喜歡的是,今天索引的確實是正確的人和最有影響力的人。我們沒想到這一點,我們想到了這一點。但當我真的想到這一點時,我想我對此非常非常高興。我認為如果它以另一種方式建立索引那就不好了,因為你想找到合適的人,特別是在哪裡——如果你考慮我們試圖將這個品牌帶到哪裡。
So the right people, the people most interested in architecture, interior design and taste and style are coming to us at a higher mix. And that deals with building our book of business, which is an important part of this business. Building the pipeline of design projects both in our trade business and in our own internal interior design business. And so when we look at the book of business for RH England and we look at the trends now that we've been open, that business from a retail point of view, like a gallery point of view is going to be right about where I think we thought it'd be directionally for opening in such an unusual location and thinking about what might happen.
因此,合適的人,對建築、室內設計以及品味和風格最感興趣的人將以更高的組合來到我們這裡。這涉及到建立我們的業務簿,這是該業務的重要組成部分。在我們的貿易業務和我們自己的內部室內設計業務中建立設計項目的管道。因此,當我們查看 RH England 的業務手冊時,我們會看到我們已經開放的趨勢,從零售的角度來看,就像畫廊的角度一樣,業務將是正確的。我們認為在這樣一個不尋常的地點開業並考慮可能會發生什麼是有方向性的。
What surprised us the most, I'd say, is the direct web business is slower than expected. We thought that the web was going to be a much larger mix of the total since we are opening in entire country, right? And so when we stand back and reflect on that and say, okay, what did we think about? What did we miss in that analysis? I think it's just the overall time it might take to build the brand and ramp the brand to a consumer. And also the first gallery in the U.K. kind of not been by anybody.
我想說,最讓我們驚訝的是直接網路業務比預期慢。我們認為,自從我們在全國範圍內開放以來,網路將成為一個更大的組合,對嗎?因此,當我們退後一步反思這一點並說,好吧,我們想到了什麼?我們在該分析中錯過了什麼?我認為這只是建立品牌並將品牌推向消費者所需的總時間。而且英國第一家畫廊也沒有被任何人參觀過。
I mean what puts this population of Aynhoe Park, 200 people?
我的意思是,Aynhoe Park 的人口有 200 人,是什麼原因造成的?
Unidentified Company Representative
Unidentified Company Representative
300 people.
300人。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
300 people, right? Like we opened in a town of 300 people. And there's nothing really that closes, no. 30-minute to Oxford. So we had some major things, few other places. But it is a place that people aspire to go to spend time with, especially in the late spring, summer, early fall periods. All right. And also, we have plans once we get our feet on the ground to think about long-term doing events and other things on that property to bring the right people and we also have some partnerships happening that actually have source stuff to do different events dealing with whether it's beautiful high-end car brands or the racing and things that happen and a lot of the prestigious things that happen out in the English countryside.
300人吧?就像我們在一個 300 人的小鎮開業一樣。並沒有什麼真正可以關閉的,不。 30分鐘可達牛津。所以我們有一些主要的事情,而其他的地方很少。但這是人們渴望去度過時光的地方,尤其是在春末、夏季、初秋時期。好的。而且,一旦我們站穩腳跟,我們就會制定計劃,考慮在該地產上長期開展活動和其他事情,以吸引合適的人員,而且我們還建立了一些合作夥伴關係,這些合作夥伴關係實際上有源材料可以處理不同的活動無論是美麗的高端汽車品牌還是賽車以及發生在英國鄉村的許多享有盛譽的事情。
So -- and then I think the other thing I'd say, I just think -- I'm just giving you kind of context of how we think of Europe right now is we didn't open with the full assortment. And I think when we go back and we're analyzing that with you, that part of the assortment that we didn't open with is probably really important to consumers in the web business. So building awareness that opens up the Internet and the web business to get that -- to move more quickly is going to be important.
所以 - 然後我想我要說的另一件事,我只是想 - 我只是給你一些我們現在如何看待歐洲的背景,我們沒有以完整的品種開放。我認為,當我們回去與您一起分析時,我們沒有公開的那部分品種可能對網路產業的消費者來說非常重要。因此,建立開放互聯網和網路業務的意識,以實現更快的發展將變得非常重要。
But I think a lot of it is going to take opening the key iconic galleries in London and Paris and Milan and so on and so forth. These big wins with restaurants and champagne and caviar bars and wine bars and [barista] bars and architectural and design libraries and all the really incredible experiential things that people are going to discover the brand and say, "what is this?" But right now, the only one with those experiences is in a very unpopulated part of England, and it's going to take longer to be discovered.
但我認為其中很大一部分需要在倫敦、巴黎和米蘭等地開設主要的標誌性畫廊。這些巨大的勝利包括餐廳、香檳和魚子醬酒吧、酒吧、咖啡師酒吧、建築和設計圖書館以及所有令人難以置信的體驗,人們會發現這個品牌並說,“這是什麼?”但目前,唯一擁有這些經驗的地方是在英格蘭一個人煙稀少的地區,需要更長的時間才能被發現。
But when people discover it, it is the right people and it is the right conversation. So we're super happy about that. But I'd say we're -- so still early, right? Like you got to let the book of business build, we've got to kind of get our feet on the ground in massively optimistic long term, and I'm massively optimistic because I think there's no one like us in the market. I think we've got to open these big galleries. That's what's going to build the brand. We've got to open in the big key cities that define fashion and taste and style and be in that conversation.
但當人們發現它時,那就是正確的人,這是正確的對話。所以我們對此感到非常高興。但我想說我們還早,對吧?就像你必須讓商業書籍不斷發展一樣,我們必須在長期樂觀的情況下腳踏實地,而我非常樂觀,因為我認為市場上沒有像我們這樣的人。我認為我們必須開設這些大畫廊。這就是建立品牌的目的。我們必須在定義時尚、品味和風格的大城市開設分店,並參與其中。
And I like that the trade business is over-indexing because those are the right people. They are the influential ones. But it's going to think a while. We're just out of the gate, and we're not out of the gate with -- in the order that we would have liked to. But nonetheless, we're out of the gate and we're learning. That's the important thing. So -- and all of these things are going to benefit from the product transformation that we're going through and all the things we're doing that we have in the pipeline.
我喜歡貿易業務過度索引,因為這些都是合適的人。他們是有影響力的人。但它會思考一段時間。我們只是走出大門,但我們並沒有按照我們希望的順序走出大門。但儘管如此,我們已經走出了大門,我們正在學習。這才是重要的事。因此,所有這些事情都將從我們正在經歷的產品轉型以及我們正在做的所有事情中受益。
And look, I only listed out what we're doing in '24, like what we're doing beyond that and what we have come for '25 and there's some things I didn't even -- I can't even put in the big [mind] view but I don't want to be too specific and give any information to the broader industry competitive set.
看,我只列出了我們在24 年所做的事情,比如我們在24 年之後所做的事情以及我們為25 年而來的事情,還有一些事情我什至沒有- 我什至無法放入我的觀點很宏觀,但我不想太具體,也不想向更廣泛的行業競爭群體提供任何資訊。
So -- but like next year, I think we're going to launch something that really big. And it's like going back and forth. I put it in this letter or not. But we've got enough in this letter. When I look back at this letter, I go like, okay, it's kind of ridiculous. That's just rather exciting. We don't need to tell everybody with for the pipeline. But we're feeling really, really great about where the brand is, where it's going. And I think Europe is going to take a while, like building great brands and you've got to be very, very strategic, you've got to be very smart, you've got to be patient. You don't go rushing and build one of the great brands in the world rushing to the finish line.
所以——但就像明年一樣,我認為我們將推出一些非常大的東西。這就像來回走動。我是否把它寫在這封信裡。但我們在這封信中已經說得夠多了。當我回頭看這封信時,我想,好吧,這有點可笑。這真是令人興奮。我們不需要告訴每個人有關管道的信息。但我們對這個品牌的現況和發展方向感到非常非常好。我認為歐洲需要一段時間,例如建立偉大的品牌,你必須非常非常有策略性,你必須非常聰明,你必須有耐心。你不會急於衝向終點線,打造世界上最偉大的品牌之一。
It's like, we say fast, this is as slow as we go, but we also say we have to do less and think more, so we can do more. So I spent a lot of time thinking, deepen the data, really analyze things right to the next thing, to the next thing, to the next thing. And -- but I really like where we are. I like where we're going, I like everything that's unfolding. And I especially like how we're positioned or the other side of this kind of difficult housing market, right?
就像,我們說快,這就是我們走的最慢的,但我們也說我們必須做得更少,思考更多,這樣我們才能做得更多。所以我花了很多時間思考,深化數據,真正分析事情到下一件事,到下一件事,到下一件事。而且——但我真的很喜歡我們現在的處境。我喜歡我們要去的地方,我喜歡正在展開的一切。我特別喜歡我們的定位或這種困難的房地產市場的另一面,對嗎?
There were some sales in 30 years, that's a long time. And how we're positioned for that rebound, I think, is better than anyone on multiple levels, too. Like when I look at the whole assortment, whether I'm looking kind at the level we're at, if I try to look at people above us and I look at people below us, I just think we're going to be holistically disruptive across a pretty big size of the market we're trying to hit. It's like I think we've opened up the aperture a bit without compromising the most important tenets of what we're trying to build. So long run answer. Hopefully, it gave you few data points that were important.
30年裡就有了一些銷售,那是很長的一段時間。我認為,我們為反彈做好的定位在多個層面上也比任何人都好。就像當我觀察整個分類時,無論我在我們所處的水平上看起來是否友善,如果我嘗試看看我們上面的人和我下面的人,我只是認為我們會整體上在我們試圖進入的相當大的市場中具有顛覆性。我認為我們已經打開了一點縫隙,但沒有損害我們正在努力建立的最重要的原則。從長遠來看答案。希望它為您提供了一些重要的數據點。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自古根漢證券公司的史蒂文·福布斯。
Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst
Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst
Gary, given the spread between the first quarter demand guidance in the whole year, I was just curious if you can maybe help us better think about how the business is rescaling or ramping on the back of the recent store resets? And then how should we think about the cadence of resets on a go-forward basis married together with the cadence of sourcebook mailing that you talked about in the letter?
加里,考慮到第一季需求指導與全年需求之間的差距,我只是好奇你是否可以幫助我們更好地思考在最近商店重置後業務如何調整或擴大?然後,我們應該如何考慮在前進的基礎上進行重置的節奏與您在信中談到的原始資料郵寄的節奏?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
The spread between Q1 and full year, I mean it's just the building, again, everything -- if you just read the letter carefully and -- I mean those are all meaningful things we're doing, right? Those are all meaningful books that were unveiling, that were completely remerchandised and you have a lot of a lot of revenue. And if you just look at the contacts that we're making year-over-year, I don't know what if every company doubled their customer contacts in circulation, I don't know what might happen. It's going to be meaningful.
第一季和全年之間的差距,我的意思是,這只是建築,再次,一切- 如果你仔細閱讀這封信- 我的意思是這些都是我們正在做的有意義的事情,對嗎?這些都是即將推出的有意義的書籍,它們被完全重新銷售,並且您有很多收入。如果你只看一下我們逐年建立的聯繫,我不知道如果每家公司將流通中的客戶聯繫增加一倍會怎樣,我不知道會發生什麼。這將是有意義的。
We don't introduce new products and get zero. We don't introduce -- we don't mail sourcebooks and get 0. And we just, I think, post-COVID because we tipped a little over a year off because we're trying to catch up on backlogs, we lost our muscle in an atrophy and we tried to get restart what I call the engine here or the machine and the machine stuttered a bit. And it took us a while to get back into our group and with new products and sourcebooks and just all the things you've got to do.
我們不會推出新產品而歸零。我們不介紹——我們不郵寄資料書,結果是 0。我認為,我們只是在新冠疫情之後,因為我們試圖趕上積壓的工作,所以我們休息了一年多,我們失去了我們的肌肉萎縮,我們試圖重新啟動我所說的引擎或機器,機器有點結巴。我們花了一段時間才回到我們的團隊,帶著新產品和資料書籍以及所有你必須做的事情。
And it's probably one of the bigger mistakes I've made in my career. And -- but now we've rebuilt the machines, we've better muscles than we had before. We're way more intelligent. We went to a much deeper level, and the quality of the work is just the best work we've ever done. And so -- and we've got enough internal data, right? When you see your business and how you're rebuilding it from down mid-teens to where we are and you look at the mix of business and the categories and kind of out of the gate, you look at what outdoor is doing. I mean, outdoors, it's exceptional right now.
這可能是我職業生涯中犯下的最大錯誤之一。而且——但現在我們已經重建了機器,我們的肌肉比以前更好了。我們更加聰明。我們進入了更深的層次,工作的品質是我們做過的最好的工作。所以——我們已經有了足夠的內部數據,對吧?當你看到你的業務以及你如何將其從十幾歲左右重建到我們現在的水平,並且你看到業務和類別的組合以及某種出乎意料的情況時,你就會看到戶外正在做什麼。我的意思是,在戶外,現在情況非常好。
And it's -- I think that the design and quality and value equation is so unmatched in the industry that we're going to take tremendous market share. And it's just setting up what we're going to do with outdoor in '25, '26, '27 because when you see what we're going to do from a physical perspective with that business and how we're exploited, I think we're going to own it. And so like there's real numbers here in outdoor. Outdoor is a meaningful part of our business. And the work and learnings that we did in outdoor that's also applied to every kind of category, you can just trace it all and see how it's going to come together.
我認為設計、品質和價值在行業中是無與倫比的,我們將佔據巨大的市場份額。這只是設定我們將在 25 年、26 年、27 年在戶外做什麼,因為當你從物理角度看到我們將在該業務中做什麼以及我們如何被剝削時,我認為我們將擁有它。就像戶外有真實的數字。戶外活動是我們業務中有意義的一部分。我們在戶外所做的工作和學習也適用於各種類別,您可以追蹤所有內容,看看它們將如何結合在一起。
And we have enough data and numbers from RH Interiors and the new collections and RH Contemporary. With new collections and the adjustments we've made, the adjustments we've made to exceed the value equation perspective. And as we -- and I think we went back to just having more edge, like the edge that it took to build this brand and business, I think, it is returned. And like I think I said a few calls before, I don't know, it's widely quoted. I'm going to be careful what things are saying -- I think I said we were arrogant about pricing because of all through the period of tariffs and supply chain disruptions, elevated raw material price, prices escalating that forced price increases and it has drove inflation.
我們從 RH Interiors 以及新系列和 RH Contemporary 獲得了足夠的數據和數字。透過新的系列和我們所做的調整,我們所做的調整超越了價值等式的視角。當我們——我認為我們回到擁有更多優勢時,就像建立這個品牌和業務所需的優勢一樣,我認為,它會得到回報。就像我之前說過的幾次電話一樣,我不知道,它被廣泛引用。我會謹慎對待人們所說的話——我想我說過我們對定價很傲慢,因為整個通貨膨脹時期關稅和供應鏈中斷,原物料價格上漲,價格不斷上漲,迫使價格上漲,並推動了通價。通貨膨脹。 。
I think -- yes, I don't think we had our value edge and hats on as we kept client in the luxury brand. And I think integrate luxury brand, it doesn't mean that price is a matter, like everything has to have a value equation. Everything has to go through a lens of design, quality, value in that order. If somebody doesn't love the design, they don't even look at the quality nor the price.
我認為——是的,我認為我們沒有價值優勢,也沒有把客戶留在奢侈品牌上。我認為整合奢侈品牌,並不意味著價格是一個問題,就像一切都必須有一個價值方程式一樣。一切都必須按照設計、品質、價值的順序來審視。如果有人不喜歡設計,他們甚至不會考慮品質或價格。
But if you have -- you win a design, then you're through kind of door #1. And then you've got to win on quality because then the customer will get closer to it, now read about it, touch it and interact with it and they'll make their own perceptions about quality. And you can influence that with what you say and how you communicate. But at the end of the day, the consumer is going to make the decision about how great is that design, how great is that quality, and for that design and that quality, what is the value? Like how do I think about the price that you're asking for that? And is that a lousy value? Is that a decent value? Is that a good value? Or is that a great value?
但如果你贏得了設計,那麼你就進入了第一道門。然後你必須在品質上取勝,因為這樣客戶就會更接近它,現在閱讀它,觸摸它並與之互動,他們會對品質產生自己的看法。你可以透過你的言論和溝通方式來影響這一點。但最終,消費者將決定該設計有多棒,該品質有多棒,以及該設計和該品質的價值是什麼?例如我如何看待你要的價格?這是一個糟糕的價值嗎?這是一個不錯的價值嗎?這是一個很好的價值嗎?或者說這很有價值嗎?
And I think we are highly focused on having a great value, a disruptive value with clear comparisons of anything that might resemble or be like and as we set in the market. And so we're laser focused. We're into the greatest amount of detail. And I think that the design, quality, value and that's -- if you took that lens against outdoor, which you guys have visibility to, if you really takes the time to go through that book and go through the collections and look at the quality of the -- I guess the extraordinary design and extraordinary presentation of that design.
我認為我們高度專注於擁有巨大的價值,一種顛覆性的價值,與我們在市場上設定的任何可能相似或相似的東西進行清晰的比較。所以我們非常專注。我們正在研究最詳細的內容。我認為設計、品質、價值——如果你把鏡頭放在戶外,你可以看到,如果你真的花時間讀那本書,瀏覽系列,看看質量我猜想是非凡的設計和非凡的設計表現。
And then you do some work on the quality, whether it's materials it's made of, how it's made, where it's from, all the different things. And then put it through value lens like try to find any product similar, find the most similar products from other places, put them up all in a wall and compare it to ours. Then you might understand why I'm saying outdoor is exceptional, out of the gate. Because it's -- it wins door #1, we win. Door #2, we win. Door #3, we really win.
然後你在品質上做一些工作,無論是它的材料、它是如何製造的、它來自哪裡,所有不同的東西。然後透過價值鏡頭將其放在一起,例如嘗試找到任何類似的產品,從其他地方找到最相似的產品,將它們全部放在牆上並與我們的產品進行比較。那你可能會明白為什麼我說戶外是特殊的、出乎意料的。因為它贏得了 1 號門,我們贏了。 2號門,我們贏了。 3號門,我們真的贏了。
And yes -- And because of our size of our platform and our scale and because at the most senior levels of this company, we're in the factories, we're with our partners, we're helping to conceptualize and put the same creativity to how we source and how we buy and how we -- the scale we have in negotiating the price. And it's not really a negotiation, where one person wins and one person losses, it's how to you get all the brains in the game and think about it and figure out how everybody wins.
是的——因為我們的平台規模和規模,也因為在這家公司的最高層,我們在工廠裡,我們和我們的合作夥伴一起,我們正在幫助概念化並實施同樣的目標。創造力取決於我們如何採購、如何購買以及我們如何——我們在談判價格時的規模。這不是一場真正的談判,一個人獲勝,一個人失敗,而是如何在遊戲中集思廣益,思考並找出每個人如何獲勝的方法。
And that's how we're able to, I think, to have extraordinary value. It's like you can't delegate greatness. And so all of us here at the most senior levels are leading the work. We're learning together -- we're listening together, we're learning together and we're leading based on that. And I think the work that's having is, I think, the best work in the history of my career, and I've been in this industry a long time, and I think it's the best work in the industry. And I think it's going to be disruptive, and it's going to create strategic separation and it's going to -- I think we're going to gain a lot of market share.
我認為,這就是我們能夠擁有非凡價值的方式。就好像你不能將偉大的事情委託給別人一樣。因此,我們所有最高層的人都在領導這項工作。我們一起學習-我們一起傾聽,一起學習,並以此為基礎來領導。我認為現在的工作是我職業生涯歷史上最好的工作,我在這個行業工作了很長時間,我認為這是這個行業最好的工作。我認為這將是顛覆性的,它將造成策略分離,而且我認為我們將獲得大量的市場份額。
So I don't know how to give you a more specific thing, but it's like that's what we're doing. And so if you want to build the ramp, like, look, you could take where Q1 is going to be and you know what that demand looks like and you can take like where we think we're going to end the year, you can build your own little graph. I gave you guys (inaudible) but everybody gets too myopically focused on that, like it's just got to be directionally right. Like if we have it a little wrong, like why that? Exactly right.
所以我不知道如何給你更具體的訊息,但這就是我們正在做的事情。因此,如果你想建造坡道,例如,看,你可以採取第一季的目標,你知道需求是什麼樣的,你可以採取我們認為今年年底的目標,你可以建立你自己的小圖表。我給了你們(聽不清楚),但每個人都過於短視地關注這一點,就像方向必須正確一樣。就像我們是否有一點錯誤一樣,為什麼會這樣?非常正確。
Well, it's not going to be exactly right when you're building something and transforming something. You've just got to be directionally right. And we believe we're directionally right. We believe we're going to deliver these numbers or more, and we're very confident about that.
嗯,當你建造某些東西並改造某些東西時,它不會完全正確。你只要方向正確就好了。我們相信我們的方向是正確的。我們相信我們將實現這些數字或更多,我們對此非常有信心。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
And Steve, you asked about the piece of that. That's -- as Gary has talked about, that's one piece of the puzzle, right? You have the new product from the evolution of the product, you have better availability of that product, you have sources of contacts, again, all things Gary have said and forceps another -- one of these factors that drive the business and we (inaudible).
史蒂夫,你問過這件事。正如加里所說,這只是拼圖的一部分,對嗎?你從產品的演變中獲得了新產品,你對該產品有更好的可用性,你有聯繫來源,再說一次,加里所說的所有事情並迫使另一個- 這些因素之一推動業務和我們(聽不清) )。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
(inaudible) so and so forth, Yes.
(聽不清楚)等等,是的。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
We've been doing forceps that continuing and we have a one particular collection that we talked about in the last call that's still coming in and will be in all galleries in the second quarter.
我們一直在繼續做鑷子,我們在上次電話會議中談到了一個特定的系列,它仍在進來,並將在第二季度出現在所有畫廊中。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
And throughout the year, we'll be reading like the floors will continue to evolve, the galleries will continue to evolve all year, right? And so there's a lot of newness coming in, there's going to be several cycles and adjustments that we'll make. So there's just -- we're going to have a lot of choices and a lot of optionality. That's what else I like. It's just like when I look at the bigger picture and I stand back and go, whether it's sourcebooks or advertising or contacts or forceps or in-stocks or placing bets here, reacting to this, dimensionalizing different parts of the business, I mean, we just have a lot of things in play and a lot of opportunities, and you can mathematically take all the pieces and build it up.
在這一年中,我們會讀到地板將繼續發展,畫廊將繼續發展,對吧?因此,會有很多新鮮事物進來,我們將進行幾個週期和調整。所以我們將有很多選擇和很多選擇。這就是我喜歡的其他東西。就像當我看到更大的圖景時,我退後一步,無論是資料書、廣告、聯絡人、鑷子、庫存還是在這裡下注,對此做出反應,將業務的不同部分維度化,我的意思是,我們只要有很多事情在發揮作用,有很多機會,你就可以從數學上把所有的部分組合起來。
And we're not -- look, we're not new at this. We've done this for a long time. And I think I'd say put it in context is, how are you thinking about the guidance in the context of the market? We're guiding with looking at through a lens of market neutral. The housing market doesn't get meaningfully worse or meaningfully better, right? So we're seeing neutral market. Yes, there will be interest rate cuts, we're probably going to be quarter point cuts that are going to come later in the second half of the year. A quarter point cut isn't going to massively move mortgage rates.
我們不是──看,我們在這方面並不陌生。我們已經這樣做很久了。我想我想說的是,您如何考慮市場背景下的指導?我們透過市場中立的視角來進行指導。房地產市場並沒有明顯惡化或明顯好轉,對嗎?所以我們看到的是中性市場。是的,將會降息,我們可能會在今年下半年稍後降息四分之一個百分點。四分之一的降息不會大幅改變房貸利率。
If you look at the delta between where people are locked in on mortgages and where they'd have to step up to, you really need two things happening. You need home prices to come down and you need interest rates come down. And that gap, I think, is going to take longer than three quarter point interest rate cut. But hopefully, those happen, and you put some more interest rate cuts on the other side, again, in '25 and people can't hang on as long from a pricing point of view and some of that giant inflation that build the housing market, which really one of the biggest impacts to the markets how prices in America went up 42%, 2 years, the 2 years of COVID.
如果你看看人們被抵押貸款鎖定的情況和他們必須採取的措施之間的差距,你真的需要發生兩件事。你需要房價下降,你需要利率下降。我認為,這一差距將需要比降息四分之三點更長的時間。但希望這些都會發生,你會在 25 年再次降息,從定價的角度來看,人們無法堅持那麼久,而且從構建房地產市場的巨大通膨來看,人們也無法堅持那麼久。這確實是對市場影響最大的因素之一,美國的物價在新冠疫情爆發的兩年上漲了42%。
And then they've been stubbornly high because there's been no inventory. There has been no inventory, people had record low interest rates and they have to trade up to higher interest rates. So the data is like it's all super logical. Why were they freeze and where we are. The key is what really happens has to happen for the thaw and for everything to get moving again and interest rates and housing prices. And it's a combination -- we believe it's a combination of both. Unless interest rates go down really quickly, mortgage rates get readjusted, you get a big move down there, then maybe housing prices hold up.
然後,由於沒有庫存,它們一直居高不下。沒有庫存,人們的利率創歷史新低,他們必須以更高的利率進行交易。所以這些數據就像是超級合乎邏輯的。他們為什麼被凍結以及我們在哪裡。關鍵是真正發生的事情必須發生,才能讓經濟解凍,讓一切、利率和房價再次恢復正常。這是一個結合——我們相信它是兩者的結合。除非利率真的很快下降,房貸利率重新調整,你會大幅下降,然後房價可能會堅挺。
My sense is that you've got a lot of people just holding out as long as they can. A lot of people have to move, they've got a new job somewhere. It's going to be -- and some people they've grown their families, they have more children, they've gotten married, they need to buy a house. And so there's pent-up demand. And I think that's a good thing when you look at it.
我的感覺是,很多人都在盡可能地堅持下去。很多人必須搬家,他們在某個地方找到了新工作。將會是——有些人已經組建了家庭,有了更多的孩子,他們已經結婚了,他們需要買房子。因此存在著被壓抑的需求。當你看到它時,我認為這是一件好事。
In fact, if I still think -- you got to have movement, we got to have real movement in the interest rate market. And we have to have some movement in the pricing market. And when those things start to converge, I think we're going to see a snapback. And I think no one is going to be better positioned for that snap back than us. Like we're going to be in the absolute best position. So that's what we're super excited about. Like right now, like we're looking at market neutral, not going to get meaningfully worse, not going to get meaningfully better.
事實上,如果我仍然認為——你必須有變動,我們必須在利率市場上有真正的變動。我們必須在定價市場上做出一些變動。當這些事情開始融合時,我認為我們將會看到經濟復甦。我認為沒有人比我們更有能力應付這種反彈。就像我們將處於絕對最佳位置一樣。這就是我們非常興奮的事情。就像現在,就像我們關注市場中性一樣,不會變得更糟,也不會變得更好。
If it gets a little better, do we feel better about the guidance? Of course, we do. Of course, we do. We're going to feel a lot better. So -- but I just think in all ways we look at it, it's all some form of good to great. And less time unfold, and we'll keep doing what we're doing and playing our game.
如果情況好一點,我們對指導的感覺會更好嗎?當然,我們這樣做。當然,我們這樣做。我們會感覺好很多。所以——但我只是認為,從我們看待它的所有角度來看,這都是某種形式的從優秀到卓越。時間越來越少,我們將繼續做我們正在做的事情並玩我們的遊戲。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle with Bank of America.
下一個問題來自美國銀行的柯蒂斯‧內格爾 (Curtis Nagle)。
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Gary, maybe I'll just start with what it was kind of a small piece of business right now, but it sounds like it's getting a bit bigger over time. Waterworks, I think it's the first time you've called out a long-term outlook at $1 billion. So implying it would effectively quintuple. I guess just at this point, you've had it, I think, since 2016, what give you, I guess, the confidence to put out a pretty bold, pretty impressive target? And I guess kind of why now? What's driving the excitement, maybe ask more simply?
加里,也許我會先從現在的一小部分業務開始,但聽起來隨著時間的推移它會變得越來越大。 Waterworks,我認為這是您第一次提出 10 億美元的長期前景。這意味著它實際上會增加五倍。我想就在這一點上,我想,自 2016 年以來,是什麼讓你有信心提出一個相當大膽、令人印象深刻的目標?我想現在是為什麼?是什麼讓人如此興奮,或許可以問得更簡單一些?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Sure. Sure. Good question. Yes, we said back -- well, I don't know if we said this publicly, but we said internally that Waterworks was 1 of 2 businesses I had on a strategic framework math when I came here 24 years ago. I think when I walked in the door. I said, okay, here's the long-term vision, here's where we're going, and I had 2 acquisitions, Waterworks and Dean & DeLuca. I thought Waterworks was the best brand in the high-end bath and kitchen -- mostly bath packs and now kitchen too. And I thought Dean & DeLuca had a really interesting brand with more of a food focus, some hard business, but it wasn't merchandised well to make money. And I knew enough about the model that I thought like we could create a really cool next-generation kind of Williams-Sonoma with a different kind of sensibility, aesthetically and pace of style and maybe integrate a little bit of fresh food focus, all that that's so much -- that's the reason why Dean & DeLuca never get sale and make money, too focused on fresh food, they didn't have the hard goods part.
當然。當然。好問題。是的,我們回覆了——嗯,我不知道我們是否公開說過這一點,但我們在內部說過,24 年前我來到這裡時,Waterworks 是我在戰略框架數學上擁有的兩家企業之一。我想當我走進門的時候。我說,好吧,這就是長期願景,這就是我們的目標,我收購了兩次,Waterworks 和 Dean & DeLuca。我認為 Waterworks 是高端浴室和廚房領域最好的品牌——主要是沐浴包,現在也包括廚房。我認為 Dean & DeLuca 有一個非常有趣的品牌,更專注於食品,也有一些艱苦的業務,但它的行銷效果不佳,無法賺錢。我對這個模型有足夠的了解,我認為我們可以創造出一款非常酷的下一代威廉斯-索諾瑪,具有不同的情感、美學和風格節奏,也許可以融入一點新鮮食品的焦點,所有這些太多了——這就是為什麼 Dean & DeLuca 從來沒有銷售和賺錢的原因,太專注於新鮮食品,他們沒有硬貨部分。
And so Dean & DeLuca didn't make it. I got passed around a couple of times. So we looked at buying it multiple times. We have almost got it. And Waterworks came along, it was the right brand at the wrong time, but it might not come available again. So if you think about when we bought it, we're middle of membership, supply chain transformation, all kinds of things.
所以迪恩和德盧卡沒能成功。我被繞過了幾次。所以我們多次考慮購買。我們幾乎已經得到它了。 Waterworks 出現了,它是在錯誤的時間出現的正確的品牌,但它可能不會再出現了。因此,如果你想想我們購買它的時候,我們正處於會員資格、供應鏈轉型以及各種事情的中間。
They just launched Modern, and we said, look, we may not have another chance to partner with a brand like this. We thought it was a great strategic fit. So we did that. And -- but the business was always relatively small, right? I think we bought it at just north of $100 million. And you had to think about -- when you have to learn that part of the business, we had to kind of build the relationships with the team. We had strategically aligned and without using a lot of time because it's the wrong time. So we spent very little time in the first few years.
他們剛剛推出了 Modern,我們說,看,我們可能不會再有機會與這樣的品牌合作。我們認為這是一個很好的策略契合。所以我們就這麼做了。而且——但業務總是相對較小,對嗎?我認為我們以 1 億美元以上的價格購買了它。你必須考慮-當你必須學習這部分業務時,我們必須與團隊建立關係。我們在策略上保持一致,但沒有花太多時間,因為時機不對。所以最初幾年我們花的時間很少。
And how do you kind of build the business model and the assortment logic to support the business model and a lot of things. And so we -- through the years, we've spent a little bit of time and got aligned and the team has done an outstanding job. I think almost doubling the business, more than doubling the EBITDA. And now it's, I think, a business that's positioned to grow. And I think we have a platform that is a perfect platform to scale the business on.
以及如何建立業務模型和分類邏輯來支援業務模型和很多東西。因此,多年來,我們花了一點時間並保持一致,團隊做得非常出色。我認為業務幾乎翻倍,EBITDA 翻倍還多。我認為,現在它是一項有望發展的業務。我認為我們擁有一個可以擴展業務的完美平台。
Direct-to-customer component, we have a consumer part of the business that -- even though they have 14 showrooms, they're not in places that consumers really shop. And we have experience taking mostly trade-focused businesses and brands over our years and putting those brands on our platform, putting their assortments on our platform and doing multiple times the business, right, just because it's now the best products in front of the consumer. But most of these products, not in front of the consumer. Consumers don't really go into Waterworks showrooms. I mean stumble in, but they're in design districts to the trade, they're set up for business-to-business and not really set up for consumer, even though they have a showroom no different than any of the furniture brands like that, so on and so forth.
直接面向客戶的部分,我們有消費者業務部分——儘管他們有 14 個陳列室,但它們並不位於消費者真正購物的地方。多年來,我們擁有主要以貿易為中心的企業和品牌的經驗,並將這些品牌放在我們的平台上,將他們的品種放在我們的平台上,並做數倍的業務,對吧,只是因為它現在是消費者面前的最佳產品。但這些產品大部分並沒有出現在消費者面前。消費者並不會真正進入 Waterworks 的陳列室。我的意思是偶然進入,但他們位於貿易的設計區,他們是為企業對企業而設立的,而不是真正為消費者設立的,儘管他們的陳列室與任何家具品牌沒有什麼不同,例如那個,等等。
And then they have some distribution and third-party distributions. They're in there with other brands and where they don't have total control of the brand. But I think when you look at the platform we're building and the stage we're building for the best products in the most important categories, this is a perfect fit. I mean, it couldn't be more aligned. And it's also really hard business. I mean we've been in the business. We sell water delivery, faucet (inaudible) we sell about hardware and stuff like that, but we're not experts. I mean they have what, 45 years more than that experienced family business.
然後他們有一些發行版和第三方發行版。他們與其他品牌一起存在,但他們無法完全控製品牌。但我認為,當你看到我們正在建立的平台以及我們正在為最重要類別的最佳產品建造的舞台時,你會發現這是一個完美的契合。我的意思是,它再一致不過了。這也是一件非常困難的事。我的意思是我們一直在做生意。我們銷售供水、水龍頭(聽不清楚),我們銷售硬體和類似的東西,但我們不是專家。我的意思是,他們的歷史比那家經驗豐富的家族企業多了 45 年。
They have Peter Sallick, I think is CEO and leader there in their most of life. And it's (inaudible) of the business. And Ralph Bennett has been CEO for, I don't know, 15 years like -- the leadership team there, it's really smart, has a great view and graph for their high-end market that weren't (inaudible) from and learning from. And we think we're pretty smart, and we have a great view of the consumer market, but what we're trying to do is merge both of those markets. And we think that's where we think long term, the world is only going to be more transparent. And (inaudible) but best products, not facing the consumer in these categories.
他們有彼得·薩利克(Peter Sallick),我認為他是他們一生中大部分時間的執行長和領導者。這是(聽不清楚)業務。拉爾夫·貝內特(Ralph Bennett) 已經擔任首席執行官15 年了,我不知道,那裡的領導團隊非常聰明,對他們的高端市場有很好的看法和圖表,而這些是他們沒有(聽不清楚)的,也沒有學習從。我們認為我們非常聰明,我們對消費市場有很好的了解,但我們正在努力做的是合併這兩個市場。我們認為,從長遠來看,世界只會變得更加透明。而且(聽不清楚)但最好的產品,不是面向這些類別的消費者。
And that's what RH has been trying to do for our entire journey since I've been here, has slow going in the beginning. We were on the edge of bankruptcy for almost my first 10 years. And so we made through that. And now we're doing what we've always wanted to do, and we're getting smarter and better and Waterworks is just great synergies. And no different than -- you'll hear us talk at some point later about (inaudible) and picture upholstery brand we bought and Joseph Jeup, Bespoke furniture brand and just having these people and the talent inside our organization, learning from them, then leading us to higher quality, better taste how to think about the trade market. There's just so much synergies.
自從我來到這裡以來,這就是 RH 在我們整個旅程中一直努力做的事情,但一開始進展緩慢。在我的頭十年裡,我們幾乎處於破產的邊緣。我們就這樣度過了難關。現在我們正在做我們一直想做的事情,我們變得越來越聰明、越來越好,而 Waterworks 帶來了巨大的協同效應。沒有什麼不同——稍後你會聽到我們談論(聽不清楚)我們購買的室內裝飾品牌和定製家具品牌 Joseph Jeup,我們組織內有這些人和人才,向他們學習,然後引導我們以更高的品質、更好的品味去思考貿易市場。有如此多的協同作用。
It's like -- a lot of times you take 1 plus 1, you get less than 1, right? Every time there's another thing or another person involved, there's more complexity in -- Einstein said the only way to battle complexity is through simplicity. But once in a while, you've got 1 plus 1 equals more than 2, right? And I think we've found that with Waterworks, we found that with Dmitriy, we found out with Joseph Jeup. And other things that we're doing sometimes maybe not it's not necessarily an acquisition, but it's a deep partnership and relationship.
就像——很多時候你取 1 加 1,得到的結果都小於 1,對吧?每當涉及到另一件事或另一個人時,就會變得更加複雜——愛因斯坦說,對抗複雜性的唯一方法就是透過簡單性。但偶爾,你會發現 1 加 1 等於 2,對吧?我想我們已經發現了 Waterworks,我們發現了 Dmitriy,我們發現了 Joseph Jeup。我們有時做的其他事情也許不一定是收購,但這是一種深厚的夥伴關係和關係。
And I think that's where we're really good at. In Waterworks, again, I mean, it's really funny. It pull out the power from 24 years ago, there's Waterworks in this little grid. It looked so amateur when I looked at it back (inaudible) but it's always been in our radar, and we think it's just a great fit. And RH with restoration hardware, it had hardware. It had bath. I mean it didn't have faucets and fittings when I came here. I added bath, but it had towel bars and hooks and a few things like that.
我認為這就是我們真正擅長的地方。我的意思是,在《自來水廠》中,這真的很有趣。它從24年前就開始供電了,這個小電網裡面有自來水廠。當我回頭看它時,它看起來很業餘(聽不清楚),但它一直在我們的雷達範圍內,我們認為它非常適合。 RH 有恢復硬件,它有硬體。它有浴缸。我的意思是當我來到這裡時它沒有水龍頭和配件。我添加了浴缸,但它有毛巾桿和掛鉤以及類似的東西。
And then when I added faucets and fittings, the model was looking at Waterworks is the best. So always, obviously, inspired by them. But we were never going to be Waterworks, right? So much better to just partner with and integrate with Waterworks. I think it's going to be unbelievable. I really do. And I think it's going to bring the other thing -- the other benefits is it's going to bring the highest quality trade customers to RH that may be not a frequent in us yet. And you get into the business at an earlier point in the design stage. We sometimes get interactive with the consumer at a much later stage. The home is done, they're ready to furnish it, so on and so forth.
然後當我添加水龍頭和配件時,模型認為 Waterworks 是最好的。顯然,總是受到他們的啟發。但我們永遠不會成為自來水廠,對嗎?與 Waterworks 合作並整合會更好。我認為這將是令人難以置信的。我真的這麼做。我認為這還會帶來另一件事——另一個好處是它將為 RH 帶來最高品質的貿易客戶,而這在我們可能還不常見。您可以在設計階段的早期階段進入業務。有時我們會在很晚的階段才與消費者互動。房子已經完工了,他們準備佈置家具,等等。
Interactive with Waterworks consumer here at the front end, you're at the architectural point. You're at the plumbing point and all this other stuff. So the opportunity to get access to that customer, integrate that customer, be building the design holistically all the categories that we're in and the categories that will continue to expand into and become more dominant, I think it's -- I mean it's really like if you can ever say there's match made in heaven, I think it's a match made in heaven like it's was supposed to be. So we're really excited. I think they're really excited, and I think it's going to be big.
在前端與 Waterworks 消費者進行交互,您就處於架構點。你正處於管道點和所有其他東西。因此,有機會接觸到該客戶,整合該客戶,全面構建我們所處的所有類別以及將繼續擴展並變得更加主導的類別的設計,我認為這是——我的意思是這真的是就像如果你能說天作之合一樣,我認為這就是天作之合,就像它應該的那樣。所以我們真的很興奮。我認為他們真的很興奮,而且我認為這會很大。
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Got it. And then just another quick one, Gary. Just in terms of the mid outlook, I think on the last call, you said something the effect of -- you had expected a peak reflection -- peak demand or something like you had in 2Q or spring? Any changes there? Obviously, the outlook is strong for the year, but...
知道了。然後又是一個快速的,加里。就中期前景而言,我認為在上次電話會議上,您說了一些影響 - 您預計會出現峰值反映 - 峰值需求或類似您在第二季度或春季的情況?那裡有什麼變化嗎?顯然,今年的前景很強勁,但是......
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
I think there's going to peaking because we've done more work since then. Like there's more things, we can see more things. So yes, I think like Phase 1, so what I think about that like kind of phases. There's multiple phases of this transformation, right, as we -- that will be unveiling. But kind of Phase I will kind of hit peak, I think, in late Q2. But then there's a whole Phase 2 now that we've got coming that will be unfolding, right? And we've -- I think we've got a Phase 3, which is coming. There's a lot of excitement, a lot of great work that's being done.
我認為將會達到頂峰,因為從那時起我們做了更多的工作。就像有更多的東西一樣,我們可以看到更多的東西。所以是的,我認為就像第一階段一樣,所以我認為這就像階段一樣。正如我們即將揭曉的那樣,這種轉變有多個階段。但我認為,第一階段將在第二季末達到頂峰。但現在整個第二階段即將展開,對吧?我認為我們已經有了第三階段,即將到來。有很多令人興奮的事情,有很多偉大的工作正在完成。
And the data around here is how do you sequence it? How should it all unfold over what period of time? And so I'd say -- that's peak inflection on like Phase 1, RH Interiors, RH Contemporary and Outdoor and Modern, right? Like Modern would be coming in, that's like next of the big books. And I think it looks incredible. I am glad we actually delayed it a bit, took a little bit more time because it took a leapfrog. I mean it's steady. And I think it's so fresh and cool and people just see the images, and it's all laid out.
這裡的資料是如何排序的?這一切該在什麼時間內展開?所以我想說——這是第一階段、RH Interiors、RH Contemporary 和 Outdoor and Modern 等的巔峰變形,對吧?就像《摩登》即將推出一樣,這就像下一本大書。我認為這看起來令人難以置信。我很高興我們實際上推遲了一點,花了更多的時間,因為它取得了跨越式的進展。我的意思是它很穩定。我認為它是如此新鮮和酷,人們只是看到圖像,而且一切都已經佈置好了。
And it feels like, wow, okay, it's not a walk on by. I guarantee you. It's not an Aretha Franklin Walk On By. But it's -- so that's -- I mean, that's going to create a big kind of move in Q2. And in Outdoor, it's going to be hitting peak March, April, May June, and you've got the learnings and interiors and that's cycling through. And then we've got in-stocks that are going to get meaningfully better. Back order rates are going to go down, which means demand goes up. When back order rates go down, there's all kinds of metrics here that you can just add them up and it tells you what to do and all the adjustments from like -- so yes, I think at Phase 1, you'll kind of get kind of peak inflection, might peak a little later at that, but you're going to kind of know like the arrow, like when I talk about inflection, it doesn't mean that the outcome, right, like the curve, the line will be pointed in that peak direction.
感覺就像,哇,好吧,這不是走路。我向你保證。這不是艾瑞莎富蘭克林的《走過》。但我的意思是,這將在第二季產生巨大的變化。在戶外,它將在三月、四月、五月、六月達到頂峰,你已經獲得了學習和室內設計,並且正在循環。然後我們的庫存將會顯著改善。延期交貨率將會下降,這意味著需求將會上升。當延期交貨率下降時,這裡有各種各樣的指標,您可以將它們相加,它會告訴您要做什麼以及所有的調整 - 所以是的,我認為在第一階段,您會得到一種峰值拐點,可能會晚一點達到峰值,但你會像箭頭一樣知道,就像當我談論拐點時,它並不意味著結果,對吧,就像曲線,直線將指向該峰值方向。
How high it will go? That might take to Q3 or Q4, like the inflection point will angle up, right? And we'll see that in Q2. So that hasn't changed. Maybe it has changed a little because we pushed Modern house a little, but you still -- Modern is going to get in there in Q2. You'll get enough of a read, you'll see where that's going.
會漲到多高?這可能需要到第三季或第四季度,就像拐點會向上傾斜一樣,對嗎?我們將在第二季度看到這一點。所以這並沒有改變。也許它已經發生了一些變化,因為我們稍微推動了 Modern house 的發展,但你仍然 - Modern 將在第二季度進入那裡。你會讀得夠多,你會明白這是怎麼回事。
And then you got like just Phase 2 and Phase 3 and things that are coming through the pipeline. And I think it just all keeps building. So yes -- so we're directionally correct Tried to give you a little bit more color there. Hopefully, it's helpful.
然後你就得到了第二階段和第三階段以及正在透過管道進行的事情。我認為這一切都在不斷發展。所以是的——所以我們的方向是正確的,試圖給你更多的色彩。希望它有幫助。
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Curtis Smyser Nagle - VP
Yes, very helpful.
是的,非常有幫助。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Christopher Horvers with JPMorgan.
下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Christopher Horvers。
Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst
Christopher Michael Horvers - Senior Analyst
So I'm just going to put my two questions out there. So my first question is the $40 million that was deferred of January, that why wouldn't it come back much sooner if it was a lot of domestic and we're hearing from other retailers that the Red Seas (inaudible) weeks of delivery?
所以我只想提出我的兩個問題。所以我的第一個問題是1 月份推遲的4000 萬美元,如果大量是國內貨,而且我們從其他零售商那裡聽說紅海(聽不清楚)需要幾週的交貨時間,為什麼它不能早點回來呢?
And then my second question is, if you look at non-occupancy gross margin pressure, it looks like it got a little bit worse. I guess how far -- is that all clearance? And how long before we get through all of the clearance and do you expect to recapture all that pressure?
我的第二個問題是,如果你看看非入住毛利率壓力,情況似乎變得更糟了。我猜還有多遠——這就是全部許可了嗎?我們需要多長時間才能完成所有許可?您預計會重新承受所有壓力嗎?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. I mean -- well, look -- for when we're -- you've got to think about like -- there's a lot of people in the home furnishings or home goods, and you have to say like, okay, what's their furniture content and what's their special order content. And when you think about those goods -- and then what's kind of Asia and coming around the pipeline. So now that's coming around Africa and not through the Red Sea and the canal.
是的。我的意思是——嗯,看看——當我們——你必須考慮——有很多人在購買家具或家居用品,你必須說,好吧,他們的東西是什麼家具內容以及他們的特殊訂單內容是什麼。當你想到這些商品時,然後想想亞洲是什麼樣的以及正在運輸中的商品。所以現在是繞過非洲而不是通過紅海和運河。
So we probably have the highest content, right? We have a significantly bigger outdoor business, I think, than anyone. I don't think anyone holds a candle to us in that category. And so that's all had travel and take a couple of extra weeks. And so that's a meaningful number. Our special order business or any of our other businesses, all our newness, all our things attached to back orders, right, that got delayed. So you've got that delay. And then you're delaying kind of everything looking out, like when does shipping lanes reopen? That's the question. How long is this 2-week delay? You're not going to catch up with it until the shipping lanes opened or like it's just kind of permanently deferred for 2 weeks if that makes sense.
所以我們的內容可能是最高的,對吧?我認為,我們的戶外業務比任何人都大得多。我認為在這一類別中沒有人比我們更出色。所以這一切都需要旅行,並且需要額外幾週的時間。所以這是一個有意義的數字。我們的特殊訂單業務或任何其他業務,我們所有的新鮮事物,我們所有與延期交貨相關的東西,對吧,都被推遲了。所以你有延遲。然後你就推遲了所有的事情,例如航道什麼時候重新開放?這就是問題所在。這兩週的延遲有多長?在航線開放之前你不會趕上它,或者如果有道理的話,它只是永久推遲兩週。
And then there's the piece with the weather and the ice storms that hit, yes, that piece comes back now and is coming back. So you generally have a delay with that. But it's not like it comes back tomorrow design price up to design projects, it's special orders that they're doing is outdoor furniture that they were going to buy. If they bought anything that has the 2-week delay, that's delayed more so. Yes, it will all cycle back. It's just what's the timing.
然後是有關天氣和冰暴的片段,是的,那片段現在回來了,而且正在回來。所以你通常會延遲。但這並不是說明天設計價格就會回到設計項目,而是他們正在做的特殊訂單是他們要購買的戶外家具。如果他們買的東西有兩週的延遲,那麼延遲會更嚴重。是的,一切都會循環回來。這只是時機。
Like if you're selling things that are cash and carry, got it, yes. Like if you look at the product mix of people that had Christmas product or actually all the Christmas stuff that was on sale in December and January, it not like of course, all that stuff comes back, like yes, no problem. If you're selling any home furnishings categories and if you're selling tabletop, food-related products, accessories, cookware, name all the categories that are cash to home, there's all cash and carry kind of businesses or just domestically shift from a DC. We've got a very different product mix and model than anyone else. We probably have the highest furniture content of anybody that you might compare us with.
就像如果你賣的是現金和隨身攜帶的東西,明白了,是的。就像如果你看看那些擁有聖誕產品的人的產品組合,或者實際上所有在12 月和1 月銷售的聖誕商品,你會發現,當然,所有這些東西都不會回來,就像是的,沒問題。如果您銷售任何家居用品類別,並且如果您銷售桌面、食品相關產品、配件、炊具,請列出所有現金到家的類別,所有現金和自運類型的業務或只是從國內轉移直流。我們擁有與其他公司截然不同的產品組合和模式。在您可能與我們進行比較的任何公司中,我們的家具含量可能是最高的。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
And Chris, on that gross margin side, there was -- it continue to impact on the product margin.
克里斯,在毛利率方面,它繼續對產品利潤產生影響。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Max Rakhlenko with TD Cowen.
下一個問題來自 Max Rakhlenko 和 TD Cowen 的對話。
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Gary, Jack, congratulations on strong demand that you're seeing as well as the recent openings. I was curious, given all the new galleries that are coming online in the U.S., can you provide an update to the new gallery economics as you convert a legacy gallery to a design gallery? You provided color in the past, but just curious how that has evolved over time.
加里、傑克,恭喜你們看到了強勁的需求以及最近的空缺職位。我很好奇,考慮到美國正在上線的所有新畫廊,當您將傳統畫廊轉變為設計畫廊時,您能否提供新畫廊經濟的最新情況?您過去提供了顏色,但只是好奇隨著時間的推移它是如何演變的。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
(technical difficulty) So yes, it has been a while, as I think about it. So that's good. Let's pull that together in the right way to make sure we distribute it in the right way, so everybody's got the same data.
(技術難度)所以,是的,我想已經有一段時間了。所以這樣很好。讓我們以正確的方式將其整合在一起,以確保我們以正確的方式分發它,以便每個人都獲得相同的數據。
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Got it. Sorry, could you repeat that? It went blank for a little bit.
知道了。抱歉,您能再說一次嗎?腦子裡一片空白。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Okay. I'd say it's a good question. It has been a while. As you said, there's been a lot of things that have changed. We have restaurants and galleries now, hospitality aspects. It depends where they are in the cycle, how many square feet you're expanding into. There's a lot of things to consider when you look at these. And so I think what we ought to do is update that data set and create a framework and let us distribute that next quarter in a fashion that everybody has the same information at the same time, and it's all accurate.
好的。我想說這是一個好問題。這已經有一段時間。正如你所說,很多事情都改變了。我們現在有餐廳和畫廊,還有接待方面。這取決於它們在周期中的位置,以及您要擴展到多少平方英尺。當您查看這些內容時,有很多事情需要考慮。因此,我認為我們應該做的是更新該數據集並創建一個框架,然後讓我們以每個人同時擁有相同資訊的方式分發下個季度的數據,而且都是準確的。
(technical difficulty)
(技術難度)
Can you hear us? We might be having audio issues. Max, can you hear us?
你可以聽見我們嗎?我們可能會遇到音訊問題。麥克斯,你聽得到我們說話嗎?
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Yes. Okay, great. And then my follow-up question is, can you speak to how you're balancing the sharp price points with maintaining elevated product margins? And then just how much are your vendors stepping up and then the opportunity to expand product margins over time from the current level?
是的。好的,太好了。然後我的後續問題是,您能否談談如何在大幅價格點與維持較高的產品利潤之間取得平衡?然後,您的供應商將採取多少措施,以及隨著時間的推移,有機會在當前水準上擴大產品利潤?
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
One second. Repeat the question because we are just recognizing that the line was -- sounded like it had gone dead for a bit. So repeat the question for both me and Gary, please.
一秒。重複這個問題,因為我們剛剛意識到這條線路——聽起來好像已經斷線了一會兒。請對我和加里重複這個問題。
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Maksim Rakhlenko - Director
Okay. Yes, no problem. Just can you speak to how you're balancing the sharp price points with maintaining elevated product margins how much are your vendors stepping up just directionally? And then the opportunity to expand product margins over time from the current levels?
好的。是沒有問題。您能否談談如何在大幅價格點與維持較高的產品利潤之間取得平衡?您的供應商定向提高了多少?然後,隨著時間的推移,是否有機會在當前水準上擴大產品利潤?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. Again, I wouldn't -- we're not a price -- kind of focused, price first business, right? I think I spent a lot of time earlier in the call talking about design, quality and value in that order. And we think about those things -- from those 3 dimensions always, and we try to look at the bigger picture and say what's going to be a compelling value. And we don't have vendors, we have partners, right? So that's why my letter is addressed to our people, our partners and our shareholders.
是的。再說一次,我不會——我們不是一個價格——有點專注,價格第一的業務,對吧?我想我在電話會議的早些時候花了很多時間按順序討論設計、品質和價值。我們總是從這三個維度來思考這些事情,我們嘗試著眼於更大的前景,並說出什麼將是一個令人信服的價值。我們沒有供應商,我們有合作夥伴,對吧?這就是為什麼我這封信是寫給我們的員工、我們的夥伴和我們的股東的。
And -- and so we try to work with people as partners and it's not necessarily so much as are they stepping up? It's more -- are we together thinking about how to win the market, right? Like if you -- if it's one person that wins and one person that lose is that's kind of partnership and that never works long term. So we try to take a real strategic view with our partners. We spend a lot of time with them. We talk directly about how we're thinking. We try to understand their business deeply and where their leverage is and opportunities are. And we try to stand back and say, "Hey, look, we're -- you're manufacturers without stores and we're shopkeepers without factories. So how do we partner and how do we win?"
因此,我們嘗試與人們作為合作夥伴合作,但這並不一定意味著他們正在加緊努力?更重要的是──我們是否一起思考如何贏得市場,對嗎?就像如果你——如果一個人贏了一個人輸了,那就是一種夥伴關係,而且永遠不會長期有效。因此,我們嘗試與合作夥伴採取真正的策略觀點。我們花了很多時間和他們在一起。我們直接談論我們的想法。我們試圖深入了解他們的業務以及他們的影響力和機會在哪裡。我們試著退後一步說:“嘿,看,我們是——你們是沒有商店的製造商,我們是沒有工廠的店主。那麼我們如何合作以及如何獲勝?”
So -- but we have no intention in taking margins down. Margins have to be looked at holistically not just at the product level. And I think that's probably what your point is. We're going through a massive transformation, rearchitecting the assortments and positioning things. And I think as you think -- see things unfold here, we believe if you're thinking about operating margins and so on and so forth, that operating margins over the next few years can return to the 20% range and that our model is it'd be a great model.
所以——但我們無意降低利潤率。必須從整體上看待利潤,而不僅僅是產品層面。我想這可能就是你的觀點。我們正在經歷一場巨大的變革,重新建構產品類別並進行定位。我認為,正如您所想的那樣,看到這裡的情況,我們相信,如果您考慮營業利潤率等等,那麼未來幾年的營業利潤率可以恢復到 20% 的範圍,我們的模型是這將是一個很棒的模型。
But from a timing point of view, we're going through a product transformation, and we're building an international business from scratch. And so there's investments and there's going to be margin pressure. And based on investments, we're making on both of those pieces. And that will create some different periods of higher or lower margins or not. But I wouldn't say there's anything different strategically at all, I think how we've built the company and keep on that path. But it's not about like, hey, getting the next nickel out of a vendor.
但從時間角度來看,我們正在經歷產品轉型,我們正在從頭開始建立國際業務。因此,存在投資,就會存在利潤壓力。基於投資,我們正在這兩方面進行投資。這將創造一些不同時期的利潤率更高或更低。但我不會說戰略上有什麼不同,我認為我們是如何建立公司並繼續沿著這條道路走下去的。但這並不是說,嘿,從供應商那裡得到下一個鎳幣。
I mean maybe people that have vendors do that. To us, it's about the next idea. Let's get the next big idea, whether that's product idea, positioning idea, market idea. And if you can get all the brains in the game and then ego goes out of the room, if you truly believe that none of us are smarter than all of us, you're going to work in a partnership and 1 plus 1 is going to equal a lot more than 2 if you do it that way. And that's how we work with every -- we just try to share all the best information and perspective, and we try to listen to them and we try to really think about how do we win in the market. That's it. And so I would say, hey, long term, do we think that these lower margins that are aged? Not at all.
我的意思是也許有供應商的人會這樣做。對我們來說,這是關於下一個想法。讓我們來看看下一個大創意,無論是產品創意、定位創意或市場創意。如果你能在遊戲中集思廣益,然後自我意識就會消失,如果你真的相信我們沒有人比我們所有人更聰明,那麼你就會以夥伴關係的方式工作,1加1就會發生如果你這樣做的話,等於遠大於2。這就是我們與每個人合作的方式——我們只是嘗試分享所有最好的資訊和觀點,我們嘗試傾聽他們的意見,我們嘗試真正思考我們如何在市場上獲勝。就是這樣。所以我想說,嘿,從長遠來看,我們是否認為這些較低的利潤率已經過時了?一點也不。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham。
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
My question is just thinking about your comment earlier about opening your aperture a bit more without compromising what you're trying to build. Can you elaborate on this, Gary? Are you trying to win back customers that you "fired" during the pandemic? And are you getting lower in terms of the customer income demographics that you're targeting?
我的問題只是想一下您之前關於在不影響您想要構建的內容的情況下進一步打開光圈的評論。加里,你能詳細說明一下嗎?您是否想贏回疫情期間「解僱」的客戶?您所針對的客戶收入人口統計是否正在下降?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. We've never fired customers. So I don't know, maybe this is your words, not our. Nothing I've ever said. I said, look, you're going to -- like if you think about where we started and the journey we've been on for 24 years, yes, as we shed customers and transitioned to other customers, yes. Of course, like best selling sofa in this company is to be a $999 Chanel Green Sofa. We don't have $999 Channel Green Sofas. So not even if you task inflation to it, maybe $2,000 Chanel Green Sofa. We don't have those. We don't have a lot of things that we used to sell.
是的。我們從未解僱過客戶。所以我不知道,也許這是你的話,不是我們的。我什麼也沒說過。我說,你看,如果你想想我們從哪裡開始,以及我們 24 年的歷程,是的,當我們擺脫客戶並轉向其他客戶時,是的。當然,這家公司最暢銷的沙發是999美元的香奈兒綠色沙發。我們沒有 999 美元的 Channel Green 沙發。因此,即使您將通貨膨脹歸咎於它,也許香奈兒綠色沙發也可能是 2,000 美元。我們沒有那些。我們以前賣的東西已經不多了。
So of course, when you're building something -- when you're trying to become something that you never were, and you're going to evolve and acquire new customers. And the customers might come with you and some might not. But there's no intentional firing, but there is an awareness that as we're heading in certain directions with certain categories, things will evolve the change. Through that journey, we're always going to get data and we're going to learn, and we're going to adjust and it provides an adapt and always, always in a state of change, right?
所以當然,當你正在建立一些東西時 - 當你試圖成為你從未成為的東西時,你將不斷發展並獲得新客戶。客戶可能會和你一起來,有些可能不會。但我們並不是故意解僱,但人們意識到,當我們朝著某些類別的某些方向前進時,事情就會改變。在這段旅程中,我們總是會獲取數據,我們會學習,我們會調整,它提供了一種適應,並且總是處於變化的狀態,對嗎?
We're in an evolutionary world. I said the world is evolving and you're either evolving faster than the world and gaining -- acquiring knowledge and capabilities and market share how do you want to think about it, or you're evolving slower and getting behind. And so I would just say, I think (technical difficulty)
我們處於一個進化的世界。我說世界不斷發展,你要么比世界發展得更快並獲得知識、能力和市場份額,你想怎麼想,要么你發展得更慢並落後。所以我只想說,我認為(技術難度)
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Are you still there, Gary?
加里,你還在嗎?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
(inaudible) Okay. Can somebody call separately the conference call, operator? Seth, can you hear us now?
(聽不清楚)好的。有人可以單獨撥打電話會議嗎,接線生?賽斯,你現在聽得到我們說話嗎?
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
I can hear you now, yes. I think I got most of your answer. I appreciate that. And just a follow-up question. Along the same lines, you're sharpening your value edge, as you've referenced. To ask the question differently than it's been asked before, I assume you're not taking quality out to lower price? And if not, why should merchandise margins, excluding freight, be the same or better on new product NAV versus the product you were selling in '22?
我現在能聽到你的聲音了,是的。我想我已經得到了你的大部分答案。我很感激。只是一個後續問題。同樣,正如您所提到的,您正在增強您的價值優勢。以與之前提出的不同的方式提出這個問題,我認為您不會以品質來降低價格?如果不是,為什麼新產品的 NAV 商品利潤率(不包括運費)與您在 22 年銷售的產品相同或更好?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Sorry, I don't know if I get that. Seth, give me that question again towards the end that why would -- or what would the product margins be or something -- say it again.
抱歉,我不知道我是否明白。塞斯,在最後再次給我這個問題,為什麼要——或者產品利潤是多少或其他什麼——再說一次。
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research
Yes, if you're not taking quality out to be more sharp on price as you're sharpening your value edge, as you call it, why should the merchandise margins, excluding freight, be the same or better on a new product relative to what you're selling and earning in 2022?
是的,如果你不把品質放在價格上,因為你正在提高你的價值優勢,正如你所說的那樣,為什麼新產品的商品利潤率(不包括運費)與舊產品相同或更好?2022年您將銷售什麼並賺取什麼收入?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Sure. Well, it's about how you buy it and the commitments you make and the long-term view you take and working in a partnership, but with your manufacturers and figuring things out together. But -- yes. So it's -- yes. It's just when you do that well, you can have a better (inaudible). When you have a platform as large as ours, you have the scale and you control the platform, you can be really disruptive. So yes, it's -- we didn't just take pricing down on things we have, right? It's -- you think about it as all the new product that's coming in, value equation that's coming in. And there's no intention to ever take quality out, not at all. Not at all, ever. So yes, that's not part of our strategy. That's nowhere in that one pager, right, in the long view.
當然。嗯,這取決於你如何購買它、你所做的承諾、你採取的長期觀點以及與你的製造商合作並共同解決問題的長期觀點。但是,是的。所以這是——是的。只有當你做得好時,你才能做得更好(聽不清楚)。當你擁有像我們這樣大的平台時,你擁有規模並且控制平台,你就可以真正具有顛覆性。所以,是的,我們不只是降低我們現有產品的價格,對嗎?你可以將其視為即將推出的所有新產品、即將推出的價值方程式。而且我們無意降低質量,一點也不。一點也不,從來沒有。所以,是的,這不是我們策略的一部分。從長遠來看,這在那個尋呼機中是不存在的,對吧。
And I think you've ever heard us talk about that at all in my 24 years here. It's about taking -- elevating the design, quality and value of the product that's all we focus on. So -- but it takes, yes (inaudible) in creativity and partnerships and being smart about what you're investing in and what you're leveraging and what you're buying and that's how we got here. So I think my prior comments were through a period of multiple cost increases because of trying to tariffs, and we had a pretty big content back then coming out of China, much smaller now.
我想,在我 24 年的工作生涯中,您一定聽過我們談論過這個問題。這是關於提升產品的設計、品質和價值,這是我們所關注的一切。所以 - 但這需要,是的(聽不清楚)創造力和合作夥伴關係,並明智地了解你正在投資什麼、你正在利用什麼、你正在購買什麼,這就是我們走到這一步的原因。因此,我認為我之前的評論是由於試圖徵收關稅而經歷了一段成本多次增加的時期,當時我們有相當大的內容來自中國,現在要小得多。
And those price increases that we needed to take and then that price increases we need to take through the COVID period. And through the COVID period for a 2-year period, the -- I mean, everybody had leverage, right? Like meaning that there's only so much products. When you have more demand than you have supply, prices can go up and margins can go up. But when you have lower demand and supply, if you want to move your inventory, prices are going to come down. It's no different. And it's no different than during this period, right?
我們需要採取這些價格上漲措施,然後我們需要在新冠疫情期間採取價格上漲措施。在為期兩年的新冠疫情期間,我的意思是,每個人都有影響力,對吧?就像只有這麼多產品一樣。當需求多於供應時,價格就會上漲,利潤也會上漲。但當需求和供應減少時,如果你想轉移庫存,價格就會下降。沒什麼不同。而且跟這個時期沒有什麼不同,對吧?
It's down housing market. And so -- and we're the same thing we're doing with investments. So you're looking at gross margin, well, inside of the gross margin, there's a lot of investments that not -- aren't necessarily just product, right? And so -- but -- yes, there's no intention here to be crystal clear about taking quality down to take price down. Never been uttered in our company and get the opposite. Yes, so that's what people are thinking that they're just dead wrong. There's no value engineering. Okay.
房地產市場低迷。所以——我們在投資方面所做的事情也是一樣的。所以你要考慮的是毛利率,在毛利率內部,有很多投資不一定只是產品,對吧?所以——但是——是的,這裡無意明確地透過降低品質來降低價格。我們公司從來沒有說過這樣的話,得到的卻是相反的。是的,這就是人們認為他們完全錯誤的想法。沒有價值工程。好的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.
我們的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Matuszewski 和 Jefferies 的對話。
Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst
Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst
First one was on gross margin for 2024. Imagine you may have some elevated clearance lingering early this year, but then you should have some good margins with all this newness that you mentioned. So how does that all net out for the year? And does the year-over-year trend in gross margin sequentially improve each quarter as product launches build upon each other?
第一個是 2024 年的毛利率。想像一下,今年年初您的清倉率可能會有所上升,但由於您提到的所有這些新鮮事物,您應該會獲得一些不錯的利潤率。那麼今年的情況如何呢?隨著產品的推出相互促進,毛利率的年比趨勢是否會在每季持續改善?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, we're not guiding gross margins quarter-by-quarter. But you can...
是的,我們不會按季度指導毛利率。但是你可以...
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
And we're not guiding, we don't and we don't no longer guide gross margin on the year. So we'll talk about it as result. But the guidance is through (inaudible)
我們不會、不會、也不會再對本年度的毛利率進行指導。所以我們將討論它的結果。但指導是通過的(聽不清楚)
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, it's all implied in the operating margin and EBITDA guidance.
是的,這一切都隱含在營業利潤率和 EBITDA 指引中。
Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst
Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst
Got it. And then, Gary, you recently hired a new Chief Real Estate Officer. How should we think about changes to the real estate approach going forward with Jarrett on board? And should we expect any changes to other development-related aspects in the company, like food and beverage or anything like that?
知道了。然後,加里,您最近聘請了一位新的首席房地產官。隨著賈勒特的加入,我們該如何考慮房地產方法的變化?我們是否應該期待公司其他與發展相關的方面(例如食品和飲料或類似的方面)發生任何變化?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Jarrett, how long you been here now?
賈勒特,你來這裡多久了?
Jarrett Stuhl
Jarrett Stuhl
Eight weeks.
八週。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. Jarrett has been here 8 weeks. And so he's a very bright guy, a very creative guy, strong point of view, learning the business, and we're excited happy to hear him. And I think when we all give a little bit of time to really assess the situation and the opportunities and at some point, you likely meet him. And he can kind of share his thoughts. But I think it's going to be a big step up for us. Like I think he's going to prove to be the best leader we've ever had in this part of the business on multiple levels. So we're very excited about and being on the team, and that's about it for now.
是的。賈勒特在這裡已經八週了。所以他是一個非常聰明的人,一個非常有創造力的人,觀點鮮明,學習業務,我們很高興聽到他的聲音。我認為,當我們都花一點時間來真正評估情況和機會時,在某個時候,你很可能會遇到他。他可以分享他的想法。但我認為這對我們來說將是一個很大的進步。我認為他將在多個層面上證明自己是這部分業務中最好的領導者。所以我們對加入這個團隊感到非常興奮,目前就是這樣。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser with UBS.
下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的麥可‧拉瑟 (Michael Lasser)。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
A cursory view of the communication that RH had during the fourth quarter would suggest that it was more aggressive cleaning out inventory, messaging on price. And then it was also evident from the gross margin compression that was experienced during the quarter. And yet, if we adjust the sales growth in the fourth quarter for a like number of weeks, your sales growth trailed behind some of the peers in the space.
粗略地看一下 RH 在第四季度進行的溝通會發現,它正在更加積極地清理庫存,並傳達價格訊息。從本季經歷的毛利率壓縮也可以看出這一點。然而,如果我們將第四季度的銷售成長調整相同的周數,您的銷售成長會落後於該領域的一些同行。
So, a, how much do you think you saw from -- in terms of sales from some of the pricing actions that you took in the fourth quarter? And b, why do you think you might be losing share to some of your key competitors in the sector?
那麼,您認為您從第四季度採取的一些定價行動中看到了多少銷售? b,為什麼您認為您的市場佔有率可能會輸給該行業的一些主要競爭對手?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
I don't know if I get the question what -- one second, Michael, we're trying to kind of break down your question. I mean...
我不知道我是否明白了這個問題——邁克爾,等一下,我們正在嘗試分解你的問題。我是說...
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
His first part is that we underperformed peers in the fourth quarter with being down 11% on a 52-week basis. So...
他的第一部分是我們第四季的表現落後於同行,在 52 週的基礎上下降了 11%。所以...
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, that I know. It's like is there a specific people you're talking about? There's a lot of -- I don't know who you're calling peered, who you're not. If you look at people that (inaudible) furniture business, I think we've performed positively in line, some better, maybe some were a little better, some were a little worse. But when you say we broadly outperformed peers, I don't know, but I'd say, like I don't think there's anything different that happened in the fourth quarter than what we expected, except for the major storms that I think impacted everybody. And again, it will impact furniture people who have longer lead times and deliveries more. And the people that are more exposed to sourcing and specifically, if you think about the size of our outdoor business and the amount of that comes out of Indonesia, which is the capital (inaudible) affected us. So I'm not -- do you want to be more specific or like -- I'm not sure where you're going.
是的,我知道。就像你在談論某個特定的人嗎?有很多——我不知道你稱誰為“同儕”,但你不知道誰。如果你看看那些(聽不清楚)家具業務的人,我認為我們的表現非常積極,有些更好,也許有些好一點,有些差一點。但是,當你說我們的表現普遍優於同行時,我不知道,但我會說,我認為第四季度發生的情況與我們的預期沒有什麼不同,除了我認為影響的重大風暴之外大家。再次,這將影響交貨時間更長、交貨量更多的家具製造商。那些更接觸採購的人,特別是,如果你考慮一下我們戶外業務的規模以及來自印尼的數量,印尼是影響我們的資本(聽不清楚)。所以我不是——你想更具體一點還是——我不確定你要去哪裡。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
If we look at some of the competitors out there, they were down 6% to 7% in the fourth quarter versus down 11% for RH and that's even with a more aggressive path on clearing out inventory. But...
如果我們看看一些競爭對手,他們在第四季度的銷售額下降了 6% 到 7%,而 RH 則下降了 11%,而且即使在清理庫存方面採取了更積極的方式。但...
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
What's their product mix? Are you talking about people that sell tabletop and cookware and seasonal businesses and Christmas ornaments and all kinds of things that we don't sell. Yes, those are going to get hit less in a housing market downturn than furniture, okay? If you want to talk about furniture-related people -- comparison furniture-related people. But don't compare us to Home Depot, don't compare us to Pottery Barn, don't compare us to Williams-Sonoma. You're talking about apples and oranges.
他們的產品組合是什麼?您是指銷售桌面、炊具、季節性商品、聖誕裝飾品以及各種我們不銷售的東西的人嗎?是的,在房地產市場低迷時期,這些產品受到的打擊比家具小,好嗎?如果你想談論與家具相關的人——比較與家具相關的人。但不要將我們與 Home Depot 進行比較,不要將我們與 Pottery Barn 進行比較,不要將我們與 Williams-Sonoma 進行比較。你說的是蘋果和橘子。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
And compares people with the same fiscal year-end or quarter -- fiscal quarter end.
並將人們與同一財年末或季度——財季末進行比較。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, fiscal year-end, yes. If you don't...
是的,財政年度結束,是的。如果你不...
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
We don't end in January. It's not even (inaudible)
我們不會在一月結束。甚至不是(聽不清楚)
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. They didn't end in January, they didn't get hit by the Canal and then didn't get hit by the ice storms. That's why I said you want to be more specific like I'll try to answer your question, but a broad sense like that, like not as relevant.
是的。他們沒有在一月結束,他們沒有受到運河的襲擊,然後也沒有受到冰暴的襲擊。這就是為什麼我說你想要更具體,就像我會嘗試回答你的問題一樣,但像這樣的廣泛意義,就像不那麼相關。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Okay. My follow-up question is, if we add back some of the margin drags that you highlighted this year, you would put to have a 16% operating margin in 2025. Is that the right way to think about the basis for how we should be modeling over the next few years? Or would you expect the investment cycle that is going to happen this year is going to persist for multiple years, which will pressure profitability for an extended period of time?
好的。我的後續問題是,如果我們再加上您今年強調的一些利潤率拖累,那麼 2025 年的營業利潤率將達到 16%。這是思考我們應該如何發展的基礎的正確方法嗎?未來幾年的模特兒工作?或者您是否預計今年即將發生的投資週期將持續多年,這將在很長一段時間內對盈利能力造成壓力?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. We're not guiding to 2025. We're guiding to 2024, and we're giving you all the data as it relates to that. Like I think I just said a couple of questions ago that we feel very good about getting back to 20% operating margins over the next several years. So we're still in a challenging market with the housing market is at record lows. So I don't think anybody is guiding '25 yet. Are they?
是的。我們不是在指導 2025 年。我們是在指導 2024 年,並且我們會向您提供與之相關的所有數據。就像我之前說過的幾個問題一樣,我們對於在未來幾年恢復 20% 的營業利潤率感到非常高興。因此,我們仍然處於一個充滿挑戰的市場,房地產市場處於歷史低點。所以我認為還沒有人在指導'25。他們是嗎?
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
No.
不。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, I think no.
是的,我認為不是。
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
I guess I was more so asking about the persistence of the investment cycle and how long that might impact your profitability rather than looking for specific guidance for (inaudible).
我想我更多的是詢問投資週期的持續性以及這可能會影響您的盈利能力多長時間,而不是尋找具體的指導(聽不清楚)。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Is anybody guiding on that in '25 yet because that would be guidance, right?
25 年有人對此進行指導嗎?因為那將是指導,對嗎?
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines
Yes.
是的。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
I mean -- yes, so we're not guiding to '25 yet. We never have, but we have a long-term view. We know that we can return to 20% in operating margins. And yes, we have some investment cycles that we'll have to roll through. And we'd say all the people (inaudible) they're trying to build a model that's beyond where our guidance is. You're going to have to connect the dots and come up with your own assumptions. I can't do your work. I mean, I'm not asking you to do my work, don't ask me to do your work.
我的意思是 - 是的,所以我們還沒有指導 '25。我們從來沒有,但我們有長遠的眼光。我們知道我們的營業利潤率可以恢復到 20%。是的,我們必須經歷一些投資週期。我們想說的是,所有的人(聽不清楚)都在嘗試建立一個超出我們指導範圍的模型。你必須將這些點連結起來並提出你自己的假設。我不能做你的工作。我的意思是,我不是要求你做我的工作,也不要要求我做你的工作。
Operator
Operator
Next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets.
下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Brad Thomas。
Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Just in light of you wanted to focus a little bit more on the demand trends this year, given some of the timing nuances, I was wondering if you could just share a little bit more with us about perhaps how demand has trended quarter-to-date? You did reference this exceptional reaction to the outdoor catalog. Curious what you've been seeing of late? And maybe just as we think about the comparisons you're up against from a demand standpoint, are there any quarters that you'd call out or something had been unusual and not aligned with the sales?
鑑於您想更多地關註今年的需求趨勢,考慮到一些時間上的細微差別,我想知道您是否可以與我們分享更多關於需求季度趨勢的信息。日期?您確實提到了戶外目錄中的這種特殊反應。好奇你最近看到了什麼?也許正如我們從需求的角度考慮您所面臨的比較一樣,您是否會指出任何季度或某些不尋常且與銷售不一致的情況?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Look, we're pretty close to -- pretty far down the first quarter, right? So you can probably come up with some kind of a demand -- we gave the first quarter demand, yes. So...
看,我們已經非常接近——相當遠地落後於第一季了,對吧?所以你可能會提出某種需求——我們給了第一季的需求,是的。所以...
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Mid-single digits, so...
中個位數,所以...
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, mid-single digits is where we think demand is going to be in Q1.
是的,我們認為第一季的需求將達到中個位數。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
We're not providing any quarterly guidance or monthly breakdown anything with that.
我們不會提供任何季度指引或月度細目。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. I would say our demand trends are building, and they're going to build through the whole year. So that we expect -- let me give you a couple of more bread crumbs. The outdoor business is off to an extraordinary start. And its biggest part of the year is coming up, right? So we have a lot of confidence as we look at the next quarter or 2. We have a lot of confidence in the whole year, but we have a lot of visibility if you think about that, right?
是的。我想說,我們的需求趨勢正在形成,而且將在全年持續成長。所以我們期望——讓我再給你一些麵包屑。戶外業務有了一個非凡的開始。今年最重要的部分即將到來,對吧?因此,當我們展望下一個季度或第二個季度時,我們充滿信心。我們對全年充滿信心,但如果您考慮這一點,我們就有很大的可見性,對嗎?
Like the outdoor business, you can -- again, just think about when people are buying outdoor furniture, they're buying a lot less in February. And they're buying a lot more in March and they're buying even more in April. So you should -- if that business is off to a great start, that's really easy to connect those dots and forecast as we've -- there's good been out there now for several weeks, and we've got real, real data.
就像戶外業務一樣,你可以再次想一下,當人們購買戶外家具時,他們在二月的購買量要少得多。他們在三月購買了更多,在四月購買了更多。所以你應該 - 如果該業務有一個良好的開端,那麼像我們一樣將這些點連接起來並進行預測真的很容易 - 現在已經有好幾週了,而且我們已經得到了真實的數據。
Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst
Bradley Bingham Thomas - MD & Equity Research Analyst
That's great. I appreciate the bread crumbs. And if I could add a follow-up on supply chain and sourcing. I guess, for one, are you contemplating any sort of disruptions relative to the closure of the Baltimore port right now? And then can you talk about kind of your confidence in your sourcing partners, your suppliers ramping up with all these new products that you can have this year?
那太棒了。我很欣賞麵包屑。如果我可以添加有關供應鏈和採購的後續內容。我想,一方面,您是否正在考慮與巴爾的摩港口關閉相關的任何形式的干擾?然後你能談談你對你的採購夥伴、你的供應商今年可以擁有的所有這些新產品的信心嗎?
And I presume that's partly why you're assuming you end the year with a greater degree of backlog, but just any more color on your kind of confidence in executing with all those new products would be great.
我想這就是為什麼你認為今年年底會有更大程度的積壓,但如果你對執行所有這些新產品的信心有更多的色彩,那就太好了。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. The -- look, the unfortunate devastating accident that happened in Baltimore is super recent. We obviously have a big facility center in Maryland. Fernando is here right in the room right now, and he's shaking his head, but we don't think there's any major disruptions.
是的。看看,巴爾的摩發生的不幸的毀滅性事故是最近發生的。顯然我們在馬裡蘭州有一個大型設施中心。費爾南多現在就在房間裡,他在搖頭,但我們認為沒有任何重大干擾。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
And let me maybe discuss -- it's Jack. But on an inbound perspective, some of our -- much of our goods are actually offloaded in New York. We do the cost-benefit analysis of getting the product out earlier in New York before the boat then comes down to Baltimore. For example, the boat that was in the accident had 4 containers on it, but that we unloaded in New York as per our practice. So we don't have any containers stuck on that particular boat and other boats are getting to rerouted. So minimal impact from that disruption.
也許讓我討論一下──這是傑克。但從入境角度來看,我們的一些——大部分貨物實際上是在紐約卸貨的。我們進行了成本效益分析,在船抵達巴爾的摩之前,先將產品在紐約運出。例如,出事的船上有4個貨櫃,但我們按照慣例在紐約卸貨。因此,我們沒有任何貨櫃卡在該特定船上,其他船隻正在改道。這次中斷的影響很小。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes. And I think your second part of the question is what confidence we have in our partners ramping with our new product. We have great companies, but it's with new products ramping -- so you're never going to forecast the new product exactly right. I never told it before it's going to be some degree on something you're going to be more right and something is going to be more wrong. And the things that you're more right on and overperform your expectations, there's going to be a period that's going to take for our partners to scale that product and respond to the trends and on and so forth.
是的。我認為問題的第二部分是我們對合作夥伴推出新產品的信心有多大。我們擁有偉大的公司,但新產品不斷湧現,所以你永遠無法準確預測新產品。我以前從未說過,在某種程度上,有些事情你會更正確,有些事情會更錯誤。對於您更正確並且超出您期望的事情,我們的合作夥伴將需要一段時間來擴展該產品並響應趨勢等等。
So -- but so far, so good. I mean we've had in very minimal issues like it's more has to do with, I think, the biggest issues are just being able to forecast the newness. And so -- but once we start getting the data, then we're improvising and adapting and let's say, we directionally right on the orders, but we get the finishes wrong. Well -- and we're reacting to and changing the finishes if they're still in the factory. And the last phase of that is the finish and we're shifting from one collection to another collection as we get data and all those kind of things.
所以——但到目前為止,一切都很好。我的意思是,我們遇到了非常小的問題,我認為,最大的問題就是能夠預測新事物。所以,一旦我們開始獲取數據,我們就會即興發揮並進行調整,比如說,我們的訂單方向是正確的,但我們的飾面是錯誤的。好吧——如果飾面還在工廠裡,我們就會做出反應並改變它們。最後一個階段是完成階段,當我們獲得資料和所有這些東西時,我們將從一個集合轉移到另一個集合。
And so -- and we have -- like we always have developed new partnerships and so on and so forth. And sometimes, some of the newer partnerships haven't -- maybe they haven't worked at this scale yet, but we try to anticipate that. But every once in a while, someone knew it's that, one of the big collections. And so that maybe is a new experience for them, but we have really great people inside the organization and in country that partner would help and we just try to work with partners and get to the right outcome once we have the data.
因此,我們一直在發展新的合作關係等等。有時,一些較新的合作關係還沒有——也許他們還沒有達到這種規模,但我們試圖預測這一點。但每隔一段時間,就會有人知道這就是大型收藏之一。因此,這對他們來說可能是一種新的體驗,但我們的組織內部和國家都有非常優秀的人才,合作夥伴會提供幫助,我們只是嘗試與合作夥伴合作,一旦我們掌握了數據,就能得到正確的結果。
So I'd say there's no -- there's nothing lurking out there right now. We don't have anything other than some kind of ramp-up issues that you expect doing anything at this kind of a scale. And -- but (inaudible) I don't know if you guys have any other. No? Okay. I mean everybody is in the room here, the team and everybody is shaking their head like, no, no problems. So nothing new came up so far today that we haven't heard.
所以我想說,現在沒有任何東西潛伏在那裡。除了您期望在這種規模上做任何事情之外,我們沒有任何其他問題。而且──但是(聽不清楚)我不知道你們是否還有其他的。不?好的。我的意思是每個人都在這個房間裡,團隊和每個人都在搖頭,好像,不,沒有問題。所以今天到目前為止,沒有什麼新的消息是我們沒有聽過的。
Operator
Operator
And we do have our last question comes from the line of Steve McManus with BNP Paribas.
我們確實有最後一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的史蒂夫·麥克馬納斯。
Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst
Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst
So clearly, very upbeat about the outdoor collection. You've got the data there. Just hoping you could speak to what the customers' reception has been and how demand is ramping for the interiors and the contemporary collection versus what you were expecting? That would be helpful.
顯然,我們對戶外系列非常樂觀。你那裡已經有數據了。只是希望您能談談客戶的接待情況以及室內設計和當代系列的需求與您的預期相比有何變化?那會有幫助的。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes, I'll be responding as from our latest expectations, all responding as we'd expect and we have -- the next big book is modern, and we feel very optimistic about that. And then we have emails of interiors and contemporary and new refreshed with new selections and new creative and better data and information, better in-stocks and so on and so forth, more of the product because we've got a chance to read and react to it in the galleries, which then gives us a lift. And so we feel really good, really optimistic. And so I don't think there's any other commentary that I have got .
是的,我將根據我們最新的期望做出回應,所有的回應都符合我們的預期,而且我們已經——下一本大書是現代的,我們對此感到非常樂觀。然後我們收到有關室內裝飾、當代和新產品的電子郵件,其中包含新的選擇、新的創意、更好的數據和資訊、更好的庫存等等,更多的產品,因為我們有機會閱讀和做出反應到畫廊去,然後我們就可以搭便車了。所以我們感覺非常好,非常樂觀。所以我認為我沒有得到任何其他評論。
Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst
Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst
All right. And if I could squeeze one more in. On the commentary into like digital and print advertising, I don't think that's something you really done in the past, like what drove the pivot and piecing that together with sourcebook rampings, how do we think about the right run rate for ad (inaudible) business?
好的。如果我能再擠進去一點。關於數位和印刷廣告的評論,我不認為這是你過去真正做過的事情,例如推動樞軸並將其與原始資料書拼湊在一起的因素,我們如何認為關於廣告(聽不清楚)業務的正確運作率?
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes.
是的。
It's kind of what we always do. There's nothing really new. It's what we generally do when we're in launch mode like this. And so we're generally marketing print and digital with all those kind of key publications, where the consumer -- generally, if you're talk to anybody or see anyone who's building a home or furnishing a home, remodeling a home, so on and so forth, they're kind of fishing where the fish are, right? They're looking at for inspiration and home magazines and design magazines and so on and so forth.
這是我們經常做的事情。沒有什麼真正新鮮的。這就是我們在這樣的啟動模式下通常會做的事情。因此,我們通常會透過所有這些類型的關鍵出版物來行銷印刷版和數位版,消費者 - 一般來說,如果你與任何人交談或看到任何正在建造房屋或裝修房屋、改造房屋等的人等等,他們就像是在有魚的地方釣魚,對吧?他們正在尋找靈感、家庭雜誌和設計雜誌等等。
And those websites get a lot of traffic with really people with a purpose, right? So we tend to invest in that way. There's difference in our direct mail business and thinking about our -- the list customer files we've built out and how we prospect and where we get new names from and some of the sales force.
這些網站吸引了大量有目標的人的流量,對吧?所以我們傾向於以這種方式進行投資。我們的直效郵件業務和思考我們建立的客戶名單文件、我們如何尋找潛在客戶以及我們從哪裡獲得新名字和一些銷售人員的想法有所不同。
So I wouldn't say anything is different, I think you see a ramp-up in the investment. And you see that based on our confidence of what we've learned thus far. And that's given us indications of what the right investment cadence is -- investment cadence and contact cadences. So yes. I wouldn't say anything has changed.
所以我不會說有什麼不同,我認為你會看到投資的增加。你會看到這一點是基於我們對迄今為止所學到的知識的信心。這為我們指明了正確的投資節奏——投資節奏和連結節奏。所以是的。我不會說有什麼改變。
Jack M. Preston - CFO
Jack M. Preston - CFO
It's not a pivot. It may have sounded like that, but I'd like, as Gary said, that's what we do around launches.
這不是一個支點。聽起來可能是這樣,但正如加里所說,我希望這就是我們圍繞發布所做的事情。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Yes.
是的。
Operator
Operator
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Friedman, I turn the call back over to you.
目前沒有其他問題。弗里德曼先生,我將電話轉回給您。
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO
Okay. Well, thank you, everyone, for your participation. And I'd say thank you to the Team RH, you're efforts and leadership have been extraordinary. It has been in a tremendous amount of work, I know for everyone, but I think I feel so proud and excited about what this team has accomplished. And I think our partners and teammates all through the country, especially our teams in the galleries and interior design, we're going to be handing you off the baton as all these products unfold and the teams across our supply chain and distribution and everybody's help work with supporting their teams in Asia and other countries around the world.
好的。好的,謝謝大家的參與。我要感謝 RH 團隊,你們的努力和領導非常出色。我知道每個人都需要做大量的工作,但我想我對這個團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪和興奮。我認為我們全國各地的合作夥伴和隊友,特別是我們在畫廊和室內設計方面的團隊,隨著所有這些產品的展開,我們的供應鏈和分銷團隊以及每個人的幫助,我們將把接力棒交給你們。與他們在亞洲和世界其他國家的團隊一起支持。
I think this is going to be our finest moment. And it really is a result of your commitment and courage and your leadership. So we just want to thank you for that, and we'll speak to everyone next quarter. Thank you.
我認為這將是我們最美好的時刻。這確實是您的承諾、勇氣和領導力的結果。因此,我們只想為此表示感謝,我們將在下個季度與大家交談。謝謝。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.
今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。