RH (RH) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello and welcome to the RH third-quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call.

您好，歡迎參加 RH 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

I would now like to turn the call over to Alison Malkin of ICR.

現在我想將電話轉給 ICR 的 Alison Malkin。

You may begin.

你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Thank you for joining us for our third quarter fiscal 2024 earnings conference call.

感謝您參加我們的 2024 財年第三季財報電話會議。

Joining me today are Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Preston, Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Gary Friedman；以及財務長傑克普雷斯頓（Jack Preston）。

Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our press release issued today.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您注意我們的法律免責聲明，即我們今天將做出某些聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性聲明，包括有關我們業務前景的聲明以及我們新聞稿中提及的其他事項。

These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially.

這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果大不相同。

Please refer to our SEC findings, as well as our press release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results.

請參閱我們的 SEC 調查結果以及我們今天發布的新聞稿，以獲得可能影響我們結果的風險因素的更詳細描述。

Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as a date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

另請注意，這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們在本次電話會議日期的觀點，我們不承擔根據新資訊或未來事件修改或公開發布對這些前瞻性陳述進行任何修訂的結果的義務。

Also, during this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items.

此外，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會討論非 GAAP 財務指標，這些指標將調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響。

You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in today's financial results press release.

您將在今天的財務結果新聞稿中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務指標的更多資訊以及這些非 GAAP 指標與 GAAP 指標的對帳表。

A live broadcast of this call is also available on the investor relations section of our website at ir.rh.com.

本次電話會議的現場直播也可在我們網站 ir.rh.com 的投資者關係欄位上觀看。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

說完這些，我將把電話轉給加里。

Great, thank you, Allison.

太好了，謝謝你，艾莉森。

And welcome, everyone.

歡迎大家。

I will start with our shareholder letter that was released in the last hour.

我首先要說的是我們在上一個小時發布的致股東信。

The positive inflection of our business continued to gain momentum with third quarter demand increasing 13% despite operating in the worst housing market in 30 years.

儘管房地產市場處於 30 年來最糟糕的時期，但我們業務的積極變化勢頭持續增強，第三季需求仍增加了 13%。

Our vector is increasing in both magnitude and direction with November demand up 18%, as the most prolific product transformation and platform expansion in the history of our industry continues to unfold.

隨著我們行業歷史上最豐富的產品轉型和平台擴展繼續展開，我們的向量在規模和方向上都在增加，11月份的需求增加了18％。

Our industry leading growth is being driven by the RH brand where November demand increased 24% with the introduction of our new RH Modern Sourcebook and has continued to accelerate into December with month to date demand up 30%, demonstrating the disruptive nature of our product transformation.

我們領先業界的成長是由RH 品牌推動的，隨著我們新的RH Modern Sourcebook 的推出，11 月份的需求增長了24%，並且持續加速到12 月份，本月迄今的需求增長了30%，這體現了我們產品轉型的顛覆性。

The performance of the RH brand reflects market share gains of 15 to 25 points in Q3, accelerating to 25 to 45 points in Q4 based on our current trends and the expectations of furniture based retailers.

根據我們目前的趨勢和家具零售商的預期，RH 品牌的表現反映出第三季的市佔率成長了 15 到 25 點，而第四季的市佔率則加速成長到 25 到 45 點。

We believe our collections reflect a level of design and quality inaccessible in our current market and a value proposition that is disruptive across multiple markets, positioning RH to gain significant market share for the foreseeable future.

我們相信，我們的系列產品體現了當前市場無法企及的設計和品質水平，以及顛覆多個市場的價值主張，使 RH 在可預見的未來獲得顯著的市場份額。

Our contract, outlet, baby, and child, and teen businesses should benefit from our product transformation in 2025, as one, the new assortment becomes more widely available to support our contract business; two, returns of new product drive our outlet business; and three, the most successful designs are translated into smaller sizes for baby, child, and teen.

我們的合約、直銷、嬰兒、兒童和青少年業務將受益於我們 2025 年的產品轉型，首先，新的產品組合將變得更加廣泛地可用，以支持我們的合約業務；二、新產品的退貨推動了我們的直銷業務；第三，最成功的設計轉化為適合嬰兒、兒童和青少年的較小尺寸。

We are also pleased that results for the third quarter reflected our guidance, with revenues increasing 8.1%, adjusted operating margin of 15.0% versus 7.3% last year, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8% versus 12.4% a year ago.

我們也很高興第三季的業績反映了我們的預期，營收成長 8.1%，調整後營業利潤率為 15.0%，而去年為 7.3%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 20.8%，而去年為 12.4%。

Based on our current trends, we are raising our fourth quarter and full year guidance to Q4 total demand growth of 20% to 22%, and revenue growth of 18% to 20%.

根據目前的趨勢，我們將第四季和全年預期上調至第四季總需求成長 20% 至 22%，營收成長 18% 至 20%。

Q4 adjusted operating margin of 12.2% to 13.2%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 18% to 19%.

Q4調整後營業利益率為12.2%至13.2%，調整後EBITDA利潤率為18%至19%。

Fiscal year total demand growth of 9.9% to 10.4%, and revenue growth of 6.8% to 7.2%.

財年總需求成長9.9%至10.4%，營收成長6.8%至7.2%。

Fiscal year adjusted operating margin of 11.5% to 11.7%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.2% to 17.4%.

財年調整後營業利益率為 11.5% 至 11.7%，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為 17.2% 至 17.4%。

Every act of creation is first an act of destruction, Pablo Picasso.

每一個創造行為首先都是一個破壞行為，巴勃羅·畢卡索。

We have worked hard to destroy the former version of ourselves and the process of unleashing what we believe is an exponentially more inspiring and disruptive RH brand, inclusive of the most prolific product transformation and platform expansion in the history of our industry.

我們努力打破自我的舊形象，並釋放出我們認為更具啟發性和顛覆性的 RH 品牌，其中包括我們行業歷史上最豐富的產品轉型和平台擴展。

We believe the important investments we are making during this depressed housing cycle are creating a level of strategic separation in our industry that rivals the most important brands in the world.

我們相信，我們在此房地產低迷週期中所做的重要投資，將在我們的行業中創造出一定程度的策略分離，可與世界上最重要的品牌相媲美。

Our product transformation plan for the remainder of 2024 and select 2025 highlights include the second mailing of our new RH Modern Sourcebook arrived in homes in November, with 54 new collections across furniture, upholstery, lighting, rugs, and textiles.

我們針對2024 年剩餘時間制定的產品轉型計劃和2025 年的精選亮點包括：我們的新RH Modern Sourcebook 於11 月第二次郵寄到家，其中包含54 個涵蓋家具、室內裝潢、燈具、地毯和紡織品的新系列。

Based on our demand trends and confidence in the new offering, we increased our advertising investment by approximately $6 million in the quarter to further expand both page count and circulation.

根據我們的需求趨勢和對新產品的信心，我們在本季增加了約 600 萬美元的廣告投資，以進一步擴大頁數和發行量。

The quarter-to-date demand leaves us to believe that this investment will prove to be a wise decision over the course of the fourth quarter and into the first half of 2025.

本季迄今的需求讓我們相信，這項投資將在第四季度至 2025 年上半年被證明是一個明智的決定。

As a reminder, post analysis of our circulation data we decided to consolidate our RH Contemporary Sourcebook collections into the RH Interiors and RH Modern Sourcebooks to optimize overall mailing depth and efficiency.

提醒一下，在對我們的發行資料進行分析後，我們決定將 RH Contemporary Sourcebook 集合合併到 RH Interiors 和 RH Modern Sourcebooks 中，以優化整體郵寄深度和效率。

Mailing fewer, more meaningful books enables our brand to break through the compounding clutter across the consumer industry, and is aligned with our Gallery strategy of fewer, more immersive and brand defining physical experiences.

郵寄數量更少、更有意義的書籍使我們的品牌能夠突破整個消費產業日益複雜的局面，也符合我們的畫廊策略，即更少、更具沉浸感和定義品牌的實體體驗。

The introduction of our new RH Interiors Sourcebook is now planned to be in homes beginning early February with 89 new collections across furniture, upholstery, lighting, rugs and textiles.

我們計劃於 2 月初在家庭中推出全新的 RH Interiors Sourcebook，其中包含 89 個新系列，涵蓋家具、室內裝潢、燈飾、地毯和紡織品。

The new collections and improved instocks, should further increase our vector and market share gains in the first half of 2025.

新的系列和改進的庫存將進一步增加我們在 2025 年上半年的載體和市場份額的成長。

The introduction of our 2025 RH Outdoor Sourcebook, featuring the most dominant assortment of high quality outdoor furniture in the world is also planned for early February.

我們還計劃於 2 月初推出 2025 年 RH 戶外手冊，其中介紹了世界上最主要的高品質戶外家具。

The new Sourcebook will include eight new outdoor furniture collections, an exciting new outdoor textiles offering, plus a significantly improved in-stock position to start the season versus a year ago.

新的 Sourcebook 將包括八個新的戶外家具系列、令人興奮的全新戶外紡織品產品，以及與去年同期相比本季初顯著改善的庫存狀況。

As you know, we acquired Waterworks in 2016, arguably the most desired brand in the luxury bath and kitchen category.

如您所知，我們於 2016 年收購了 Waterworks，它可以說是豪華浴室和廚房類別中最受歡迎的品牌。

The Waterworks team has done an outstanding job over the past eight years to further elevate the brand and build a highly profitable business model that can scale.

過去八年來，Waterworks 團隊做出了卓越的工作，進一步提升了品牌，並建立了可擴展的高利潤商業模式。

Waterworks, like most other luxury brands in the home space, generates the vast majority of its revenues from the trade market, selling to architects, designers, developers and builders.

與家居領域的大多數其他奢侈品品牌一樣，Waterworks 的絕大部分收入來自貿易市場，即向建築師、設計師、開發商和建築商銷售產品。

While RH has a meaningful trade business, the vast majority of our revenue is generated by consumers.

雖然 RH 擁有重要的貿易業務，但我們的絕大部分收入來自消費者。

We believe there is a significant opportunity to amplify the Waterworks business on the RH platform by exposing the brand to a much larger audience, similar to how we have expanded other trade focused businesses and brands over the years.

我們相信，透過將品牌展示給更廣泛的受眾，RH 平台上的 Waterworks 業務有很大機會擴大，就像我們多年來擴展其他以貿易為重點的業務和品牌的方式一樣。

This week, we will begin to introduce the Waterworks brand across the RH platform beginning with a 3,000 square foot Waterworks showroom in our largest new Design Gallery opening tomorrow in Newport Beach, California.

本週，我們將開始在 RH 平台上推出 Waterworks 品牌，首先在我們明天於加州紐波特海灘開業的最大的新設計畫廊中開設一個 3,000 平方英尺的 Waterworks 展廳。

Our interior designers around the world will now be able to specify Waterworks in their design projects and customers will be able to view and purchase Waterworks on rh.com in the next few weeks.

我們遍布世界各地的室內設計師現在可以在他們的設計項目中指定 Waterworks，客戶將能夠在接下來的幾週內在 rh.com 上查看和購買 Waterworks。

We also plan to test a Waterworks Sourcebook in the second half of 2025.

我們也計劃在 2025 年下半年測試《水務手冊》。

Waterworks today is just shy of a $200 million dollar business with mid-to high-teens EBITDA margin that we believe has the potential to become a billion-dollar global brand on our platform.

如今，Waterworks 的業務規模接近 2 億美元，EBITDA 利潤率達到中高水平，我們相信它有潛力在我們的平台上成為價值 10 億美元的全球品牌。

We also have plans to unveil RH Couture Upholstery by Dmitriy & Co. in the first half of 2025.

我們也計劃在 2025 年上半年推出由 Dmitriy & Co. 推出的 RH Couture Upholstery。

We purchased Dmitriy & Co. in 2020 with a vision of making the most exquisitely designed and crafted upholstered furniture in the world, previously only available to-the-trade, accessible to consumers on the RH platform.

我們於2020 年收購了Dmitriy & Co.，旨在打造世界上設計最精美、做工最精緻的軟墊家具，而這些家具之前僅在商家處有售，而現在，消費者可以在RH 平台上購買到。

While there has been much speculation regarding how we might change Dmitriy & Co. to address a larger market, our plan is just the opposite.

儘管關於我們如何改變 Dmitriy & Co. 以適應更大的市場有很多猜測，但我們的計劃恰恰相反。

We believe, by not changing anything, we will change everything.

我們相信，只要不改變任何事，我們就能改變一切。

Like Waterworks, we believe transitioning some of the most admired brands in the world from a solely trade based to a blended consumer and trade-based business model is a very big idea, and one that can result in exponential growth for these highly desired brands.

與Waterworks 一樣，我們相信將世界上一些最受推崇的品牌從單純基於貿易的商業模式轉變為混合基於消費者和貿易的商業模式是一個非常偉大的想法，並且可以為這些備受追捧的品牌帶來指數級成長。

Additionally, we plan to introduce a significant new brand extension in the Fall of 2025 that we believe will meaningfully expand the market size and share of the RH brand.

此外，我們計劃在 2025 年秋季推出重要的新品牌延伸，我們相信這將顯著擴大 RH 品牌的市場規模和份額。

This new brand extension will include a new Sourcebook and have a significant website presence on rh.com. We expect to present the product in our Galleries in early 2026 and will share more details of this exciting new venture in the new year.

這個新的品牌擴展將包括一本新的資料手冊，並在 rh.com 網站上佔據重要地位。我們預計將於 2026 年初在我們的畫廊展示該產品，並將在新年分享有關這項令人興奮的新項目的更多細節。

Lastly, we do not expect a negative impact to margins as a result of the most recent communications regarding the potential for increased tariffs in 2025.

最後，我們預計最近有關 2025 年可能提高關稅的通報不會對利潤率產生負面影響。

We have been proactively moving sourcing away from China over the past several years with the expectation of fully exiting the country by the end of the second quarter.

過去幾年來，我們一直在積極將採購業務轉移出中國，預計在第二季末將全面退出中國。

We are also transitioning products manufactured in Mexico and believe we can successfully reposition our sourcing with no disruption to the supply chain.

我們也正在轉型在墨西哥生產的產品，並相信我們可以成功地重新定位我們的採購，而不會對供應鏈造成中斷。

Let me shift your attention to the elevation and expansion of our platform.

讓我將您的注意力轉移到我們平台的提升和擴展上。

We continue to open the most inspiring and immersive physical experiences in our industry and some would say the world.

我們將繼續開啟我們行業乃至全世界最鼓舞人心、最身臨其境的實體體驗。

Spaces that are a reflection of human design, a study of balance, symmetry, and perfect proportions.

空間是人類設計的體現，是對平衡、對稱和完美比例的研究。

Spaces that blur the lines between residential and retail, indoors and outdoors, home and hospitality.

這些空間模糊了住宅與零售、室內與室外、家庭與飯店之間的界線。

Spaces with garden courtyards, rooftop restaurants, wine and barista bars.

設有花園庭院、屋頂餐廳、葡萄酒吧和咖啡吧的空間。

Spaces that activate all of the senses, and spaces that cannot be replicated online.

激發所有感官的空間，以及無法在網路上複製的空間。

Our plan to expand the RH brand globally, address new markets locally, and transform our North American Galleries represents a multi-billion-dollar opportunity.

我們計劃在全球擴展 RH 品牌、開拓本地新市場並改造我們的北美畫廊，這是一個價值數十億美元的商機。

Our platform expansion plan for the remainder of 2024 and 2025 includes, RH Newport Beach, opening tomorrow with over 90,000 square feet of indoor and outdoor space spread over four floors with views of the Pacific Ocean.

我們的 2024 年剩餘時間和 2025 年平台擴展計劃包括 RH Newport Beach，它將於明天開業，擁有超過 90,000 平方英尺的室內和室外空間，分佈在四層樓，可欣賞太平洋美景。

It will be one of our most dramatic, immersive, and brand defining physical experiences to date, and will replace three legacy Galleries in the region.

這將是我們迄今為止最引人注目、最身臨其境、最具品牌定義的實體體驗之一，並將取代該地區的三個傳統畫廊。

RH Newport Beach, The Gallery at Fashion Island features the RH Ocean Grill, a 270-seat indoor-outdoor rooftop restaurant with uninterrupted views and dramatic sunsets over the California coastline, two wine and barista bars, our first Waterworks Showroom, an interior design atelier, and the most expansive luxury outdoor furniture assortment in our industry.

RH Newport Beach，時尚島畫廊設有RH Ocean Grill，這是一家擁有270 個座位的室內室外屋頂餐廳，可一覽無餘地欣賞加州海岸線的壯麗日落，還有兩間葡萄酒和咖啡師酒吧、我們的第一家Waterworks 展廳、一間室內設計工作室以及我們行業中最廣泛的豪華戶外家具系列。

We believe RH Newport Beach will be an inspiring destination in the Southern California market and has the potential to become our second $100 million-plus gallery.

我們相信 RH Newport Beach 將成為南加州市場一個令人振奮的目的地，並有可能成為我們第二個價值 1 億美元以上的畫廊。

RH Montecito, also opening this week, is a reimagination of the Historic Fire House in the charming enclave perched above Santa Barbara.

RH 蒙特西托 (RH Montecito) 也將於本週開業，它是對位於聖巴巴拉上方迷人飛地中的歷史消防站的重新詮釋。

The Gallery will feature The RH Firehouse Grill, an indoor-outdoor Courtyard Restaurant with fireplaces and fountains, a wine and barista bars, plus an interior design atelier.

畫廊將設有 RH Firehouse Grill，這是一家設有壁爐和噴泉的室內外庭院餐廳、葡萄酒和咖啡吧以及室內設計工作室。

The first RH Interior Design studio is opening this week in Palm Desert, California.

第一家 RH 室內設計工作室本週將在加州棕櫚沙漠開幕。

Our goal is to establish RH as the leading interior design firm in the world, as we’ve moved the brand from simply curating and selling product to conceptualizing and selling spaces.

我們的目標是將 RH 打造為世界領先的室內設計公司，因為我們已經將品牌從簡單的策劃和銷售產品轉變為概念化和銷售空間。

The Palm Desert location is a unique test of a consumer facing interior design firm, not a gallery.

棕櫚沙漠分店是面向消費者的室內設計公司而非畫廊的獨特測試。

Our theory is, by presenting RH Interior Design in a singular fashion, as a professional interior design firm, we will attract the highest caliber interior designers, and therefore the highest value consumers.

我們的理論是，透過以獨特的方式展示 RH 室內設計，作為專業的室內設計公司，我們將吸引最高水準的室內設計師，從而吸引最高價值的消費者。

We believe this might be one of the most important strategies to elevate and distinguish the RH brand as a global design authority at the highest end of the market.

我們相信，這可能是提升和區分 RH 品牌作為市場最高端全球設計權威的最重要的策略之一。

We are also developing an RH Design Ecosystem in Palm Desert, with plans to add a 10,000 square foot RH Design Gallery and a freestanding 5,000 square foot RH Outdoor Furniture Gallery on the same street.

我們還在棕櫚沙漠開發一個 RH 設計生態系統，計劃在同一條街上增加一個 10,000 平方英尺的 RH 設計畫廊和一個獨立的 5,000 平方英尺的 RH 戶外家具畫廊。

Additionally, we are considering a freestanding RH All Day Cafe to complete the ecosystem in the near future.

此外，我們正在考慮在不久的將來開設一個獨立的 RH All Day Cafe，以完善生態系統。

RH Raleigh opened in November of this year, with 50,000 square feet of indoor and outdoor space over three levels.

RH Raleigh 於今年 11 月開業，共有三層，室內和室外空間共計 50,000 平方英尺。

The gallery includes a rooftop restaurant, garden courtyards, a wine and barista bar, and an interior design atelier.

畫廊設有屋頂餐廳、花園庭院、葡萄酒和咖啡酒吧以及室內設計工作室。

We plan to open seven North American Galleries in 2025 including Montreal, Manhasset, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Los Gatos, Palm Desert and Aspen.

我們計劃於 2025 年開設七家北美畫廊，包括蒙特婁、曼哈塞特、底特律、俄克拉荷馬城、洛斯加托斯、棕櫚沙漠和阿斯彭。

Additionally, we plan to open two International Galleries in 2025, RH Paris and RH London.

此外，我們計劃於 2025 年開設兩家國際畫廊，RH 巴黎和 RH 倫敦。

We anticipate an inflection of our business in Europe, as we begin to open in the important brand building markets of Paris and London in 2025, and Milan in 2026.

我們預計歐洲的業務將出現轉折，因為我們將於 2025 年開始在巴黎和倫敦等重要的品牌建設市場開業，並於 2026 年開始在米蘭開業。

It is then we will gain scale to support the advertising investments necessary to build our business across Europe.

這樣，我們就能獲得規模來支持在整個歐洲開展業務所需的廣告投資。

We are pleased with the second year growth trends at RH England as the gallery is up 42% July through December, while the web business is up 111%.

我們對 RH England 第二年的成長趨勢感到滿意，因為畫廊 7 月至 12 月成長了 42%，而網路業務成長了 111%。

Current demand trends would indicate the gallery would reach approximately $31 million in its second full year, with the web demand reaching $7 million in its second full year.

目前的需求趨勢表明，該畫廊在其成立後的第二個完整年頭將達到約 3,100 萬美元，而網路需求在其成立後的第二個完整年頭將達到 700 萬美元。

To put these results in the proper perspective, if an RH Gallery in the English Countryside, with an estimated population of 100,000 in a 10-mile radius almost two hours outside of London, can generate $38 million of demand in its second year, what can an RH Gallery in the center of Mayfair, the most exclusive district of London, a global city with a population of 9.7 million, do in its second year?

為了正確看待這些結果，如果位於英國鄉村的一家 RH 畫廊（距離倫敦約兩小時車程，半徑 10 英里，估計人口為 10 萬）在第二年就能產生 3800 萬美元的需求，那麼位於倫敦最獨特的地區梅菲爾區中心的RH 畫廊，這個擁有970 萬人口的國際城市，第二年會做什麼？

We believe exponentially more.

我們的信心倍增。

We are also making meaningful investments to elevate and differentiate our online experience with plans to upgrade our website in the fourth quarter of 2024 and throughout 2025.

我們也正在進行有意義的投資，以提升和區分我們的線上體驗，計劃在 2024 年第四季和整個 2025 年升級我們的網站。

Some of the functionality we plan to introduce is quite revolutionary and unlike anything in the market.

我們計劃推出的一些功能相當具有革命性，與市場上的任何功能都不一樣。

We plan to file for design patents on several of the user interface and presentation designs and will begin to discuss the new website strategy in more detail as we roll out the new functionality.

我們計劃為多個使用者介面和演示設計申請設計專利，並將在推出新功能時開始更詳細地討論新的網站策略。

Leaders have to be comfortable making others uncomfortable.

領導者必須樂於讓別人感到不舒服。

Leadership is about pursuing a vision, leading people somewhere they've never been, doing things they’ve never done.

領導力就是追求一種願景，帶領人們去他們從未去過的地方，做他們從未做過的事。

As creatures of habit, change is uncomfortable for humans, but for the people and partners of team RH, a culture of invention and innovation is at the core of who we are, and reflected in everything we do.

作為習慣的產物，改變對人類來說是不舒服的，但對於 RH 團隊的員工和合作夥伴來說，發明和創新的文化是我們的核心，並體現在我們所做的每一件事中。

We’ve grown comfortable making ourselves and others uncomfortable for over two decades, and plan to continue doing so for the foreseeable future.

二十多年來，我們已經習慣了讓自己和他人感到不舒服，並且計劃在可預見的未來繼續這樣做。

It’s what leaders do, and how we know we’re on the right path, whether it’s investing in the most prolific product transformation in the history of our industry, while others are hunkering down during the worst housing market in three decades, or opening the largest and most immersive physical retail experiences in the world while others are shrinking or closing their stores and moving online.

這就是領導者所做的，也是我們如何知道自己走在正確的道路上，無論是投資於我們行業歷史上最豐富的產品轉型，還是在最糟糕的房地產市場中其他人還在苦苦掙扎或者在其他企業縮減規模或關閉門市並轉向線上零售的同時，開設全球最大、最具沉浸感的實體零售體驗。

By refusing to follow the herd into the anything but social, world of social media, you won’t find us on Instagram, or paying strangers, influencers, to say they love our brand on TikTok, we chose to, in the words of Ralph Waldo Emerson, go instead where there is no path, and leave a trail.

我們拒絕隨波逐流，進入社群媒體的世界，你不會在Instagram 上找到我們，也不會付錢給陌生人、有影響力的人，讓他們在TikTok 上說他們喜歡我們的品牌，我們選擇這樣做，用拉爾夫·沃爾多·愛默生，去往沒有路的地方，留下一條足跡。

We aim to craft our own unique identity, one built on a foundation of invention and innovation, truth and trust, taste and style, leadership and love.

我們的目標是打造自己獨特的身份，建立在發明和創新、真理和信任、品味和風格、領導和愛的基礎上。

Over 20 years ago, we began this journey with a vision of transforming a nearly bankrupt business that had a $20 million market cap and a box of Oxydol laundry detergent on the cover of its catalog into the leading luxury home brand in the world.

20 多年前，我們開啟了這一旅程，我們的願景是將一家瀕臨破產、市值 2,000 萬美元、產品目錄封面上只有一盒 Oxydol 洗衣粉的企業轉型為全球領先的豪華家居品牌。

The lessons and learnings, the insights and intricacies, the sacrifices made and scar tissue developed by getting knocked down 10 times and getting up 11 leads to the development of the mental and moral qualities that build character in individuals and form cultures in organizations.

經歷10 次跌倒和11 次站起來之後，所得到的教訓和知識、見解和複雜性、做出的犧牲和留下的傷疤，都促進了心理和道德品質的發展，從而塑造了個人品格並形成了組織文化。

Lessons that can’t be learned in a classroom, or by managing a business, lessons that must be earned by building one.

這些課程不是在課堂上或透過管理企業學到的，而是必須透過建立企業才能獲得。

In a world that rewards duplication and penalizes the inherent bumpy road of innovation, especially for companies in the public domain, we the people and partners of team RH will continue to drive ourselves to destroy today’s reality so we can create tomorrow’s future, while remaining completely comfortable making ourselves and others uncomfortable.

在這個獎勵重複、懲罰創新之路坎坷的世界裡，尤其是對於公共領域的公司來說，我們 RH 團隊的員工和合作夥伴將繼續推動自己打破今天的現實，這樣我們才能創造明天的未來，同時又能完全安然地讓自己和他人感到不舒服。

Never underestimate the power of a few good people who don’t know what can’t be done ,especially these people.

永遠不要低估少數不知道什麼不能做的好人的力量，尤其是這些人。

Onward team RH, carpe diem.

前進吧，RH 隊，及時行樂。

At this point, operator will open the call to questions.

此時，接線員將開始電話詢問。

(Operator Instructions) Michael Lasser, UBS.

（操作員指示） 瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Michael Lasser。

Good morning -- good afternoon.

早安，下午好。

Thank you so much for taking my question.

非常感謝您回答我的問題。

Your outperformance relative to the industry has obviously been very wide.

你們的表現相對於整個產業來說顯然非常出色。

So how are you thinking about taking advantage of this, such that would you further accelerate some of the investments that you're making in 2025?

那麼您打算如何利用這一點，從而進一步加快您在 2025 年進行的一些投資？

And if that were the case, would you be willing to trade some margins, so suppress margins, even if it meant that you were still accelerating your sales?

如果確實如此，您是否願意犧牲一些利潤，從而抑制利潤，即​​使這意味著您仍在加速銷售？

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Michael, I think that's always a question for business leaders.

邁克爾，我認為這一直是商業領袖們關心的問題。

What does an investment cycle look like?

投資週期是什麼樣的？

What does the harvesting cycle look like?

收穫週期是怎樣的？

How are you thinking about the business long term versus short term?

您對於業務的長期和短期發展有何看法？

I think it's an interesting time in our industry.

我認為這是我們這個行業的一個有趣時期。

There's multiple people pursuing different paths.

有不同的人追求不同的道路。

Generally, a time like this is a hunkering down or harvesting time.

一般來說，這樣的時刻是一個蹲伏或收穫的時刻。

People pull back investments.

人們撤回投資。

If you look at our history, this has always been an investment period, because the other side of a downturn in a housing market usually leads to the potential to gain significant market share on the other side.

如果你回顧我們的歷史，你會發現這一直是個投資期，因為房地產市場低迷的另一端通常會帶來在另一端獲得顯著市場份額的潛力。

So as we look forward, I would say, today, the view would be most of the significant investments are behind us.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我想說，今天的觀點是，大多數重大投資都已經過去了。

The early investments into Europe, not that we don't have more initial investments into Europe to just put in a platform, to be able to launch a business there is pretty significant.

對歐洲的早期投資，並不是說我們沒有在歐洲進行更多的初始投資，只是為了建立一個平台，能夠在那裡開展業務是非常重要的。

We do have some significant investments with RH Paris and RH London and RH Milan.

我們確實在 RH Paris、RH London 和 RH Milan 進行了一些重大投資。

But most of that cash spend is behind us, even as we think of the investments we've made to transform the product over the last 24 months, because the real effort began a couple of years ago.

但即使我們想想過去 24 個月為改造產品而進行的投資，大部分現金支出也已經過去了，因為真正的努力早在幾年前就開始了。

So the ramping up and building the muscles that you need to operate at a level that we are operating at today is really behind us.

因此，我們今天所需要提升和鍛鍊的力量已經遠遠落後於我們了。

If you think about the new significant brand extension we're discussing, most of that product is in the pipeline.

如果你考慮我們正在討論的重要的新的品牌延伸，你會發現大部分產品都還在籌備中。

I mean, we could technically launch it today.

我的意思是，從技術上講我們今天就可以推出它。

We're just kind of polishing it up.

我們只是在對其進行完善。

So those investments are mostly behind us.

因此這些投資基本上已經過去了。

But our company is based on invention and innovation.

但我們的公司是建立在發明和創新的基礎上的。

It's based on investing into the future.

它是基於對未來的投資。

And it's based on kind of endless growth, if you will.

如果你願意的話，它是基於一種無止境的成長。

So I wanted to think that that generally happens to retail brands over time.

所以我想，隨著時間的推移，這種情況普遍會發生在零售品牌身上。

I like to say that a retail mall is nothing but a graveyard for short-lived ideas.

我喜歡說零售商場不過是短暫想法的墳墓。

That's because most retailers open a new concept, they get enough rights, they expand it, they don't evolve it, they don't innovate.

這是因為大多數零售商開闢了一個新概念，他們獲得了足夠的權利，他們擴大了它，但他們並沒有發展它，他們也沒有創新。

They kind of get a model of we're going to open 20 of these a year, 40 of these a year, and pretty soon you blink and seven years goes by.

他們有一種模式，我們每年要開 20 家這樣的店，40 家，很快一眨眼七年就過去了。

Then somebody has like range of 100 to 300 stores, and they're all kind of dated and they're all tired because there hasn't been a focus of invention and innovation.

然後有人開了 100 到 300 家商店，這些商店都過時了，而且都很疲倦，因為沒有把重點放在發明和創新上。

There's been a focus of rollout and duplication.

重點一直放在推出和重複。

And that's why most retail brands don't even last the full term of their lease.

這就是為什麼大多數零售品牌甚至無法完成租賃期的原因。

If you look at a retail mall and take a snapshot of it today and look back 10 years or look forward 10 years, about 65% of the retail mall evolved every 10 to 15 years.

如果您觀察一家零售商場，今天拍一張快照，然後回顧 10 年或展望 10 年，您會發現大約 65% 的零售商場每 10 到 15 年就會發生一次演變。

And a lot of retailers don't make it to the term, at least.

至少有很多零售商都沒有達到這個標準。

So we're someone different in that nature, right?

所以本質上我們是不同的人，對嗎？

We've been on this journey now.

我們現在已經踏上這段旅程。

This is my 24th year.

今年是我24歲了。

We took a business that was basically a bankrupt business and we had to kind of dig it out of the grave, right?

我們接手了一家基本上已經破產的企業，我們必須把它從墳墓裡挖出來，對嗎？

So we started underground, if you will, had to kind of dig our way out.

因此我們從地下開始，如果你願意的話，就必須挖出一條路來。

And then we've been building it.

然後我們就開始建造它。

We've been kind of pursuing a path of a climb up the luxury mountain and try to build the luxury brand.

我們一直在尋求一條攀登奢侈品高峰的道路，並努力打造奢侈品品牌。

And that's taken considerable investment.

這需要大量投資。

But today, if you just, again, motor up and look at the platform we built and think about, put the current numbers into context, right?

但今天，如果你再次啟動並查看我們建立的平台並思考，將當前的數字放在上下文中，對嗎？

We have a lot of deleveraged to our operating model, because of significant investments we've made.

由於我們進行了大量投資，我們的營運模式已大幅去槓桿。

All of the cash investments are behind us.

所有的現金投資都已完成。

And so I look forward, I think about the cashflow over the next couple of years, and I see significantly increasing compounding cashflow model.

因此，我展望未來，思考未來幾年的現金流，我看到複合現金流模型顯著增加。

I don't see really significant capital investments beyond the kind of iconic brand building galleries.

除了標誌性品牌建立畫廊之外，我看不到真正重大的資本投資。

Even from that point of view, the cash is mostly out the door in the company, in Paris and London and so on and so forth.

即使從這個角度來看，現金大部分都流出公司、巴黎、倫敦等地。

Some of it, you're going to have a drag on depreciation going forward, because we've made a lot of investments.

其中，部分因素將會對未來的折舊產生拖累，因為我們已經進行了大量投資。

And that's why we think it's probably important if you think about our model looking forward, to focus on adjusted EBITDA margin, right?

這就是為什麼我們認為，如果你考慮我們的模型，專注於調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率可能很重要，對嗎？

Because that's going to be the -- that's just the EBITDA margin and kind of cashflow a generation.

因為那將是 — — 那隻是 EBITDA 利潤率和一代人的現金流。

That's going to be the right way to look at a model like ours; no different than for how many years Amazon had a depressed model because they were in a serious investment mode to build a platform nobody else has ever built.

這才是看待我們這樣的模型的正確方式；這與亞馬遜多年來的低迷模式沒有什麼不同，因為他們處於認真的投資模式，以建立其他人從未建立過的平台。

And you might never see it again.

你可能再也看不到它了。

I believe that's relative to our story.

我相信這與我們的故事有關。

If you just go back over the last 10 or 12, 14 years, and think about the investments we've made in our platform.

如果你回顧過去 10 年、12 年或 14 年，想想我們在平台上所做的投資。

Think about the number of significant galleries we have that are unlike anything in our industry, nobody close.

想想我們有多少個重要的畫廊，它們在我們的行業中獨一無二，無人可比。

And think about what we've built over the last several years, think about the product transformation we've went through and the investments that takes to build that, the inventory -- investments it takes to front load a business like ours with inventory so you can add the inventory to create an inflection, right?

想想我們在過去幾年所取得的成就，想想我們經歷的產品轉型，以及為實現這一目標而進行的投資，庫存——像我們這樣的企業需要預先投入庫存，因此您可以添加庫存來創造詞形變化，對嗎？

And then think about the inventory that you have to kind of invest into to kind of bridge from where you were to where you are, so you don't create a ditch as you transition from current product to new product.

然後想想你必須投資的庫存，以便從原來的位置過渡到現在的位置，這樣你就不會在從當前產品過渡到新產品時產生溝壑。

All of that is a serious investment cycle and, you know, somewhat distorts the short, term view of our model.

所有這些都是一個嚴肅的投資週期，並且在某種程度上扭曲了我們模型的短期觀點。

I think if you take the vector, which is significantly increasing, right, in magnitude and direction.

我認為，如果你取向量，其幅度和方向都會顯著增加。

And you just kind of chart out that vector over time, and you think about a significant amount of investment cycle kind of being behind us, you could plot out what this model might look like over the next two, three, four, five years.

然後你就可以隨著時間推移繪製出這個向量，想想我們已經經歷了大量的投資週期，你就可以繪製出這個模型在未來兩年、三年、四年、五年內會是什麼樣子。

And then if you, compound out with an accelerating housing market, which will come, right?

然後，如果您考慮到房地產市場的加速發展，那將會發生，對嗎？

I mean, it's the most depressed housing market any of us have seen in the history of our experience, and you have to kind of appreciate the position we're in today as you look out over the next five years.

我的意思是，這是我們有生以來所見過的最低迷的房地產市場，展望未來五年，你必須認識到我們今天的狀況。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Very helpful.

非常有幫助。

And my follow-up question is, as we look out over the next couple of years, A, should we think -- is your baseline assumption that as the housing market does improve, it will lead to an acceleration in the recent trajectory of the business that you've seen?

我的後續問題是，展望未來幾年，我們是否應該認為—你的基本假設是，隨著房地產市場的改善，它將導致近期房價走勢加速？

So we should think about that as we start to model next year and beyond?

那麼我們在開始模擬明年及以後的情況時是否應該考慮這一點？

And B, given the pacing of margin decline that RH has experienced over the last couple of years as sales have been under pressure, is that the right frame of reference to think about how margins will recover that the same degree of sharpness as the pace of sales growth maintain is like you've seen it recently?

B，考慮到過去幾年 RH 利潤率的下降速度，因為銷售壓力很大，這是思考利潤率如何恢復的正確參考框架，其恢復速度是否與 RH 的恢復速度相同？最近看到的那樣？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I think that's directionally marked right.

是的，我認為方向標記是正確的。

I mean, the question is, what is the housing market worth?

我的意思是，問題是，房地​​產市場價值幾何？

It's not only worth 5% when it comes back. it's likely worth 30%, right?

回來之後就不只值5%了。它可能值 30%，對嗎？

And that'll kind of compound over a couple of years.

這種狀況將在幾年內逐漸加劇。

It might start out worth [10] and it compounds to

它可能一開始的價值是[10]，然後複合成長到

[15].

[15]。

But it might just spike and you might see the housing market come back, like you might see 30% growth, you could see 50% growth.

但它可能會飆升，你可能會看到房地產市場回暖，例如你可能會看到 30% 的成長，你可能會看到 50% 的成長。

If you think about how depressed it's been for how long, you think about the built up, potential demand and how many people have wanted to move for several years, expanding families, people relocating, turning into renters, and so on and so forth.

如果您想想這種情況已經持續了多久，您會想到累積的潛在需求以及幾年來有多少人想搬家，家庭不斷擴大，人們搬遷，變成租房者，等等。

Because of the significant gap between interest rates, right, and how many people are locked into low interest rates.

因為利率之間存在很大差距，對吧，有多少人被鎖定在低利率中。

So that's just going to evolve, that's going to change.

所以這將會發展，將會改變。

You know, exactly when it happens, we're kind of ambivalent about that.

你知道，當這件事發生的時候，我們對此有點矛盾。

Quite frankly, sometimes I talk internally about, hey, I hope the housing market stays flat for another year.

坦白說，有時我心裡會想，嘿，我希望房地產市場再保持平穩一年。

We'll have a lot less competitors if it does.

如果確實如此，我們的競爭對手就會少很多。

We'll gain a lot more market share if it does.

如果確實如此，我們將獲得更多的市場份額。

So I'm not necessarily enthusiastic about when this housing market comes back because a bad housing market for a brand like ours, position the way it is, is actually kind of a good thing.

因此，我並不一定對房地產市場的復甦感到興奮，因為對於我們這樣的品牌來說，房地產市場不好其實是件好事。

If you think about what the future will look like -- because a lot of the ankle biters that were able to raise capital easily for the last 5, 10 years, and especially pre-COVID, five years before COVID and the four or five years after COVID.

如果你想想未來會是什麼樣子──因為很多小企業在過去5 年、10 年裡，尤其是在新冠疫情之前、新冠疫情之前的五年裡，以及疫情爆發後的四五年裡，都能夠輕鬆籌集資金。

I mean, everything in the home business was looking great and you could raise capital really easy and sometimes you could start an online brand and all that is some level of competition.

我的意思是，家庭企業的一切看起來都很棒，你可以輕鬆籌集資金，有時你可以創立一個線上品牌，而這一切都存在一定程度的競爭。

There's just more places to shop.

可供購物的地方更多了。

There's more people marketing.

從事行銷的人越來越多。

There's more people on Instagram marketing or online marketing and so on and so forth.

現在有越來越多的人開始使用 Instagram 進行行銷或線上行銷等等。

And there's been a proliferation of competitors in the housing market.

房屋市場的競爭對手也日益增加。

You see that now shrinking very quickly.

您會看到它現在正在迅速萎縮。

I mean, there's been a lot of public bankruptcies or, I say almost bankrupt or kind of bankrupt and bought out of bankruptcy, because there's a couple of online aggregators.

我的意思是，有很多公共破產，或者說幾乎破產或破產後被收購，因為有幾個線上聚合器。

I can't remember the name of one of the brands that's bought a bunch of them.

我記不起購買過其中某個品牌的名字。

I probably don't need to say it anyway.

無論如何，我可能不需要這麼說。

You guys probably know who they are.

你們可能知道他們是誰。

Yeah, but kind of Gavin Grover, our lead outside council, always says, two drunk people leaning against the bar doesn't create a better situation.

是的，但是我們的首席外部顧問加文·格羅弗 (Gavin Grover) 總是說，兩個醉漢靠在吧台上不會創造更好的情況。

So you take kind of multiple bad brands and put them together and you hope for leverage through that aggregation.

因此，你可以將多個不良品牌放在一起，並希望透過這種聚合獲得槓桿作用。

It usually doesn't work.

它通常不起作用。

I mean, look at the recent situation with, you know, overstock.com and Bed Bath and beyond.

我的意思是，看看最近的情況，你知道，overstock.com 和 Bed Bath 等網站。

I mean, anybody that's been on that marriage.

我的意思是，任何經歷過這種婚姻的人。

I think it's going to look good over the long term.

我認為從長遠來看，這將是好事。

Yeah.

是的。

So we would think that, yes, there's so many levels of opportunity.

因此我們會認為，是的，存在著許多層次的機會。

There's the housing market, there's the housing market stays down, there's going to be more people struggling. in our market in the furniture, based on furnishings market.

房地產市場持續低迷，將會有更多的人陷入困境。在我們的家具市場中，以家飾市場為主。

And there's going to be more opportunity on the other side.

而另一方面也會有更多的機會。

I mean, our inflection is happening regardless, right?

我的意思是，無論如何，我們的轉折點都會發生，對嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So ask yourself, when is the last time a brand of our size and scale in a mature market has created a market share lead of more than 5 points?

那麼，問問自己，像我們這樣規模的品牌上一次在成熟市場中取得超過 5 個百分點的市佔率領先是什麼時候？

10 points?

10分？

Yeah. 5 points would be considered really good. 10 points would be considered outstanding.

是的。 5 分就被認為非常好了。 10 分即為優秀。

What does 25 to 45 points look like?

25 至 45 分是什麼樣子的？

Track that out over the next few years.

在接下來的幾年裡追蹤這一點。

You know, that can completely change everything.

你知道，那可以徹底改變一切。

Thank you very much and have a good holiday.

非常感謝，祝您假期愉快。

Thank you, you too.

謝謝你，你也是。

Christopher Horvers, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的克里斯多福‧霍弗斯 (Christopher Horvers)。

Thanks, good evening, everybody.

謝謝，大家晚上好。

So I'll keep my question to a two-parter.

因此我的問題分為兩部分。

The first question is, is your guiding the fourth quarter below what you're seeing quarter to date?

第一個問題是，您對第四季的預期是否低於本季迄今的預期？

Is that just caution on your behalf?

這只是你的謹慎嗎？

Is there some sort of seasonality of the business to think about pursuing into the quarter?

業務是否存在某種季節性，值得考慮在本季度進行追蹤嗎？

And then the second part is you've put a lot of clearance in the past few years to introduce all this newness, 80% newness this year.

第二部分是，過去幾年你們已經為推出所有新事物付出了很多努力，今年 80% 都是新鮮事。

Is it your expectation that over time that you can get that clearance margin back?

您是否期望隨著時間的推移，您可以恢復該淨空裕度？

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Good question.

好問題。

The guide is -- we think is kind of a correct guide.

我們認為這個指南是一種正確的指南。

It depends on what -- how the rest of December and January plays out.

這取決於 12 月剩餘時間和 1 月的情況。

So, 75% roughly of our business, the balance is between 73% and 76%, I think, is our kind of core RH brand, if you think about it.

所以，如果你仔細想想，我認為，我們業務的 75% 左右，其餘部分在 73% 到 76% 之間，是我們的核心 RH 品牌。

And then we have another quarter of our business that are other things like contract, outlet, baby, and child, teen, Waterworks, Neatree, et cetera, et cetera.

然後，我們的另一個季度業務涉及其他領域，例如合約、直銷店、嬰兒、兒童、青少年、Waterworks、Neatre 等等。

And if you just kind of pull back and think about the -- you know, those businesses are not accelerating like the core brand, right?

如果你稍微退一步想一想──你知道，這些業務並沒有像核心品牌那樣加速發展，對嗎？

It kind of outlined in the letter that those should accelerate, many of them.

信中概述了其中許多事項應加速推進。

You know, obviously Waterworks won't be impacted by our product transformation.

您知道，Waterworks 顯然不會受到我們產品轉型的影響。

But our platform will enable the Waterworks brand to do some things that they might not have been able to do in the past.

但我們的平台將使 Waterworks 品牌能夠做一些他們過去可能無法做到的事情。

No different than other -- how we scaled other businesses.

與我們擴展其他業務的方式沒有什麼不同。

But the markdown percentage, if you looked at the history of our business and our core business, would say the amount we have on markdown -- like today if you looked at it, 75% of our -- or today if you look at it, about 80% of our business in the third quarter is at full price, with the full price.

但是，如果你看看我們業務和核心業務的歷史，你會發現我們的降價幅度——比如今天，如果你看看，是 75%——或者如果你看看今天，我們第三季度大概80%的業務都是全價銷售，用全價銷售。

And about 20% is on a markdown.

其中約有20%是降價銷售。

You know, it'll fluctuate.

你知道，它會波動。

2022, 78%; '22, 80-20.

2022年，78%； '22，80-20。

Over the years, like in a really up housing market, that could be as low as 90-10, but there's always a percentage of clearance.

多年來，就像在房地產市場真正上漲的時候一樣，這一比例可能會低至 90-10，但總會有一定比例的清算。

I would say our competitive set, or just the general industry as a whole, would love to have an 80-20 mix.

我想說，我們的競爭對手，或整個產業，都希望達到 80-20 的比例。

Love to have an 80-20 mix.

喜歡 80-20 的混合。

Is the clearance part of the business maybe more under pressure than it would be in a good housing market?

清倉業務面臨的壓力是否會比房地產市場良好時更大？

Sure.

當然。

You know, is the clearance part of the business going to be bigger during a bad housing market?

你知道嗎，在房地產市場不景氣的時候，清倉業務的部分規模會不會變得更大？

Of course, it is.

當然是。

Those are all firm graphs to the obvious, right?

這些都是顯而易見的明確圖表，對吧？

But the other thing we're doing is, you read my letter.

但我們要做的另一件事是，請你閱讀我的信。

You hear me talk about disruptive nature of our brand.

您聽我談論我們品牌的顛覆性。

And you've seen us kind of move in the past couple of years into much more of an attack mode.

你已經看到我們在過去幾年逐漸轉向攻擊模式。

And we think that there is an ability to take more oxygen out of the room, if you will, by playing the game that we're playing right now.

我們認為，如果你願意的話，透過玩我們現在正在玩的遊戲，可以從房間吸收更多的氧氣。

And that's not necessarily -- it's a clearance game, but it's a design, quality, value game.

這不一定——它是一款通關遊戲，但它是一款有設計、有品質、有價值遊戲。

It's looking at disrupting the market from a design point of view, a quality point of view, and a value point of view.

它從設計的角度、品質的角度和價值的角度來看顛覆市場。

And I think that's what we're doing today.

我想這就是我們今天所做的事情。

So maybe that's putting a little bit of pressure on margin initially.

因此這可能最初會給利潤帶來一點壓力。

But as you grow like we are, there's inherent efficiencies and scale, right?

但隨著你們像我們一樣成長，你們就會擁有固有的效率和規模，對嗎？

So if you think about the demand trends we have today, if you think about us ordering back into product, if you think about the leverage that we're going to get and our partners, manufacturing partners are going to get, and what the future orders might look like, those could be at much higher margins, right?

因此，如果你考慮我們今天的需求趨勢，如果你考慮我們重新訂購產品，如果你考慮我們將獲得的槓桿作用以及我們的合作夥伴、製造合作夥伴將獲得的槓桿作用，以及未來的訂單看起來可能會像這樣，利潤率可能會高很多，對嗎？

But taking the market share, taking the oxygen out of the room, creating leverage in the business model from a top line point of view, putting the investments in place, and then continuing to expand margin through the leverage you get throughout the platform.

但是，佔領市場份額、消耗房間裡的氧氣、從營收角度在商業模式中創造槓桿、進行投資，然後透過整個平台獲得的槓桿繼續擴大利潤。

And when I say the platform, I also am talking about our manufacturing platform, our vendor partners.

當我說平台時，我也在談論我們的製造平台和我們的供應商合作夥伴。

We do own some of our own manufacturing.

我們確實擁有一些自己的製造企業。

We have a factory in North Carolina, upholstery and stuff, et cetera, et cetera.

我們在北卡羅來納州有一家工廠，生產室內裝潢和其他產品等等。

But mostly, We don't own the manufacturing platform, but if you're a partner of ours, we talk about and we interface with our partners like we're one company.

但大多數情況下，我們並不擁有製造平台，但如果您是我們的合作夥伴，我們會像一家公司一樣與我們的合作夥伴進行討論和互動。

And we talk about where is there leverage?

讓我們討論一下槓桿在哪裡？

Where scale can create better margin, better pricing, more disruptive pricing, and so on and so forth?

規模可以在哪些方面創造更好的利潤、更好的定價、更具顛覆性的定價等等？

I think right now is that it is a better time to invest in disruptive pricing and disable competitors than it is to harvest the business and take lower sales.

我認為，現在是投資顛覆性定價和壓制競爭對手的最佳時機，而不是收穫業務並降低銷售。

Different people are taking different paths.

不同的人走著不同的路。

Some people are taking -- giving up market share, not trying to take market share and they're harvesting, right?

有些人正在放棄市場份額，而不是試圖奪取市場份額，但他們正在收穫，對嗎？

And expanding operating margin to margins right now.

並將營業利益率擴大至現在的利潤率。

We could do that too.

我們也可以這樣做。

We could do that too.

我們也可以這樣做。

I'd rather be trending up 30% in my core RH business than down 3% or 5% giving up share during this time.

我寧願我的核心 RH 業務呈現 30% 的成長趨勢，也不願在此期間下跌 3% 或 5% 並放棄市場佔有率。

There will be lots of leverage on the other side of running up 30%.

在上漲 30% 的同時，還會有大量的槓桿作用。

It will -- lots of leverage and a significantly stronger market position.

它將帶來巨大的槓桿作用和顯著增強的市場地位。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Have a great holiday.

祝你假期愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Simeon Gutman, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的西緬古特曼 (Simeon Gutman)。

Hi, this is Zach on for Simeon.

大家好，我是 Zach，為 Simeon 主持節目。

Thanks for taking your question.

感謝您的提問。

Following up on some of the free cashflow commentary earlier, can you speak to when you expect RH to turn into a free cash flow positive and a follow up.

針對先前對自由現金流的一些評論，您能否談談您預計 RH 何時會轉變為自由現金流為正並進行後續跟進。

How do you think about the funding needs and whether it's self funded?

您如何看待資金需求以及是否為自籌資金？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

We believe that next year will turn three cash flows positive and we'll be able to self-fund the business.

我們相信明年三筆現金流將變為正數，我們將能夠自行籌集業務資金。

I mean, the significant part of our debt is we don't really think about it as debt.

我的意思是，我們債務的重要部分是我們實際上並不認為它是債務。

We think about it more as a currency swap.

我們更多地將其視為一種貨幣互換。

You can say, oh, they have a lot of debt.

你可以說，哦，他們有很多債務。

We look at it somewhat differently.

我們對此的看法略有不同。

We think of it as the currency swap.

我們認為這是貨幣互換。

One, we didn't spend the money.

一、我們沒有花錢。

We didn't buy anything.

我們什麼都沒買。

We didn't buy any physical assets.

我們沒有購買任何實體資產。

We didn't buy any buildings with our debt.

我們沒有用債務購買任何建築物。

We didn't build any distribution centers with our debt.

我們沒有利用債務建造任何配送中心。

We exchanged one currency debt for what we believe is an exponentially more valuable currency, our stock, which is a highly liquid currency, right?

我們用一種貨幣債務來交換我們認為價值呈指數級增長的貨幣，也就是我們的股票，這是一種流動性很高的貨幣，對嗎？

We can turn our stock into cash tomorrow.

我們明天就可以將庫存轉換成現金。

So we took on debt, we exchanged that currency for our stock.

因此我們承擔了債務，並用貨幣兌換股票。

Today, post the interest costs on the debt, we've turned a $2.25 billion investment into significantly -- we've made several hundred million dollars on that investment already, based on the closing price of our stock today.

今天，在扣除債務利息成本後，我們已將 22.5 億美元的投資變成了巨額收益——根據我們今天股票的收盤價，我們已經從這筆投資中賺了好幾億美元。

I mean, if you look at where our stock's trading after hours, that investment looks significantly bigger.

我的意思是，如果你看看我們的股票盤後交易情況，那筆投資看起來會大得多。

So based on our business trends and an expected return to growth in the housing market, that return, we believe, will grow exponentially.

因此，根據我們的業務趨勢和房地產市場預期的成長回報，我們相信回報將呈指數級增長。

We don't have debt on our balance sheet, because we needed cash.

我們的資產負債表上沒有債務，因為我們需要現金。

We have meaningful part of debt on our balance sheet, because we wanted to do a currency exchange. we wanted to purchase our stock when it was undervalued.

我們的資產負債表上有相當一部分債務，因為我們想進行貨幣兌換。我們想在股票被低估時買進。

I think we bought 7.6 million shares at an average price of $2.95. I don't know, where's the stock after hours right now?

我認為我們以平均 2.95 美元的價格購買了 760 萬股。我不知道，現在盤後股票在哪裡？

$6.4-something?

6.4 美元多一點？

Yeah. $50 last I saw it.

是的。我上次看到它是 50 美元。

$4.51. Yeah, $452.

4.51 美元。是的，452美元。

So that's a pretty good return.

所以這是相當不錯的回報。

Yeah, we have a, what would that return be?

是的，我們有一個，那回報是什麼？

I mean, like, what's the cost of capital over that period of [100] and something?

我的意思是，[100] 在那段時期內的資本成本是多少？

$350 million return.

3.5 億美元的回報。

So look, we've done this before.

你看，我們以前就做過這個。

This is not the first time we've done this.

這不是我們第一次這樣做。

If you look at our history, we have taken debt, exchanged it for our stock, and created significant value for shareholders.

如果你回顧我們的歷史，你會發現我們承擔了債務，將其兌換成股票，並為股東創造了巨大的價值。

I'm the largest single shareholder in the company.

我是該公司最大的單一股東。

That's the way I think about it.

我就是這麼想的。

Steven Zaccone, Citi.

花旗銀行的史蒂文‧扎科內 (Steven Zaccone)

All right, good afternoon.

好的，下午好。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Congrats on the accelerating momentum.

恭喜你不斷加速的勢頭。

I was curious, Gary, if you could just help us understand the drivers of really the acceleration in the business?

我很好奇，加里，你能否幫助我們了解真正推動業務加速發展的因素是什麼？

What's really changed with the product?

產品究竟有何變化？

How do you feel about your competitive positioning?

您如何看待自己的競爭定位？

Why do you think you're outperforming the industry by such a wide margin?

您認為為什麼您的表現能夠遙遙領先於業界平均？

And then if the industry comes back stronger in '25, do you think you're well positioned to scale and fulfill that higher demand?

那麼，如果行業在 25 年恢復強勁，您是否認為您有能力擴大規模並滿足更高的需求？

Well, I think everything that we believe is in the letter.

嗯，我認為我們所相信的一切都在信裡了。

I don't know if there's a lot more to say than, what's in the letter or what I might've commented on thus far why we think we're outperforming.

我不知道除了信中的內容或我迄今為止可能評論過的原因之外，是否還有很多話要說，為什麼我們認為我們的表現優於其他。

I mean, it's -- we have a lot of competitive advantages.

我的意思是，我們有很多競爭優勢。

We have a platform that significantly we believe better than anybody else in the industry.

我們擁有一個平台，我們相信它比業內任何其他平台都要好。

We have product capabilities you know, savvy tastes that we believe better than anybody in the industry.

您知道，我們擁有產品能力和敏銳的品味，我們相信我們比業內任何人都更勝一籌。

Yes, I've said before there are those with taste in no scale and those with scale and no taste and we believe the idea of scaling taste is large and far reaching.

是的，我之前說過，有些人有品味但沒有規模，而有些人有規模但沒有品味，我們認為擴大品味的想法很宏大且影響深遠。

So that's what we're doing.

這就是我們正在做的事情。

We believe our taste level, you know, demonstrated not only through the product, but demonstrated through the galleries we built, the physical aspects of our business, our Sourcebooks, our website, and so forth.

我們相信，我們的品味水平不僅透過產品體現出來，還透過我們建造的畫廊、我們業務的實體方面、我們的資料手冊、我們的網站等體現出來。

You know, we believe we're building a platform for taste that's got to be highly disruptive and lucrative over the long run.

你知道，我們相信我們正在建立一個品味平台，從長遠來看，這個平台將具有極大的顛覆性和利潤豐厚。

And that's that taste level.

這就是味道層次。

And the capabilities we have at scaling taste our ability to curate, our ability, curate products, our ability to integrate products, and our ability to present the product better than anyone in the world, I think is demonstrated based on the size and scale and profitability of our business thus far, and will continue to create strategic separation as we go forward.

我們在擴大規模方面的能力，我們的策劃能力，我們的產品策劃能力，我們的產品整合能力，以及我們比世界上任何人都更好地展示產品的能力，我認為這些能力是基於規模和規模來體現的。

So that's who we are at our core, right?

所以這就是我們的本質，對嗎？

That's what we do.

這就是我們所做的。

That's what we've spent 24 years building and You haven't seen our Center of Innovation and Product Leadership.

這就是我們花了 24 年時間打造的，但您還沒有看到我們的創新和產品領導中心。

You have anybody on the call, I recommend.

我建議，您可以讓任何人參與通話。

Yeah, try to schedule a visit because nobody has anything like it.

是的，嘗試安排一次訪問，因為沒有人有這樣的經驗。

You know, that has been built.

您知道，它已經建成了。

It's a huge competitive advantage.

這是一個巨大的競爭優勢。

Our methodology is the way we think about the business, the way we strategically think about categories, the way we strategically integrate categories into a singular and focused point of view that breaks through the clutter in the market.

我們的方法是我們思考業務的方式、我們對類別的策略性思考方式、我們將類別策略性地整合為單一且集中的觀點的方式，從而突破市場的混亂。

All of those are reasons why we're outperforming.

這一切都是我們表現優異的原因。

Look, we talked about the strategic mistake I made when I turned off the product engine during COVID because we couldn't get the goods.

看，我們談論了我在 COVID 期間關閉產品引擎時犯下的戰略錯誤，因為我們無法獲得貨物。

When we cut orders in the beginning of COVID, the business went down 40%, then the business went from down 40% to up 40%, moved 80 points.

當我們在疫情初期削減訂單時，業務下降了 40%，然後業務從下降 40% 轉為上升 40%，成長了 80 個百分點。

Just as we cut orders, factories were shutting down and so forth.

就在我們削減訂單的同時，工廠也關閉了，諸如此類。

And we had a hard time getting products.

我們很難獲得產品。

So I said, let's shut off the product engine for a year, then Omnicron hit and you had another cycle of COVID and so the product engine was off for two years and then we tried to turn the product engine back on.

所以我說，讓我們關閉產品引擎一年，然後 Omnicron 來襲，你又經歷了另一輪 COVID，所​​以產品引擎關閉了兩年，然後我們嘗試重新啟動產品引擎。

We had kind of lost our muscle memory and we executed poorly in that third year.

我們有點失去了肌肉記憶，第三年的表現很差。

So now everybody's competing against, not only kind of who we were, but we built ourselves into a better version of ourselves.

所以現在每個人都在競爭，不只是跟我們自己競爭，而且我們要把自己打造為更好的自己。

And so that's why we didn't mail our core books for three years.

這就是為什麼我們三年沒有郵寄核心書籍的原因。

Yeah, so everybody who thought that they were doing so well with our HR on the sidelines, don't feel so good today.

是的，所以每個認為自己在我們的人力資源部門表現得很好的人，今天感覺都不太好。

And now, well, we're back to playing our game, but in a very evolved way.

現在，我們又回來玩我們的遊戲了，但是是以一種非常進化的方式。

I think we're smarter than we've ever been.

我認為我們比以往任何時候都更加聰明。

We're more driven and determined than we've ever been.

我們比以前更有動力、更堅定。

We're more creative, curious, and critical than we've ever been.

我們比以前更有創造力、更有好奇心、更有批判精神。

And I think the next five years for this company is going to be the best five years in the history of this company.

我認為，未來五年將是公司歷史上最好的五年。

And I think five years from now will be better than we are today.

我認為五年後我們會比現在更好。

So it's just who we are at our core.

這正是我們的本質。

You know, innovation is at the core of what we do.

你知道，創新是我們工作的核心。

Understood.

明白了。

The follow-up I had is just on gross margin.

我的後續問題只是關於毛利率。

When you reported the last quarter, you talked about august seeing a positive inflection in product margin.

當您報告上個季度的業績時，您提到八月份產品利潤率出現了積極的變化。

How did that play out over the balance of the quarter?

這對本季的平衡有何影響？

And maybe how should we think about product margin in the fourth quarter?

也許我們該如何看待第四季的產品利潤率？

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

Yeah, product margin at the demand level is still positive.

是的，需求層面的產品利潤率仍然為正。

We did have some adjustments below the selling margin.

我們確實對銷售利潤率以下進行了一些調整。

One of them was in Mark out of stock.

其中一家馬克缺貨了。

I think we did such. big transformations of our calories that we had some bigger market stock.

我想我們確實這麼做了。我們的卡路里發生了巨大的轉變，從而擁有了更大的市場庫存。

When you ship our product outside of the box, it's not generally a good thing.

當您將我們的產品運出包裝箱時，這通常不是一件好事。

And so we took a -- when we do a floor set transformation, we take the product off the floor.

因此，我們採取了——當我們進行地板佈景改造時，我們將產品從地板上拿下來。

We have teams at our local home delivery networks that pick up all that product.

我們在當地的送貨上門網路中設有團隊，負責接收所有產品。

Product's not new, it's not in the box, it's not in the protected packaging.

產品不是新的，不在盒子裡，也不在保護包裝中。

They take it back and then it gets sent to the outlets.

他們將其回收然後送往銷售點。

And we've never made a transformation this large.

我們從來沒有進行過如此大規模的轉變。

And I think we probably had more damages and more things that got banged up moving back and forth in trucks and moving around without boxes.

我認為我們可能遭受了更多的損壞，更多的東西在卡車上來回搬運以及在沒有箱子的情況下搬運時被撞壞。

And so we had to take some write-offs for product that we thought wasn't really sellable at the outlet level.

因此，我們不得不對那些我們認為在直銷店無法真正銷售的產品進行減損。

And elevated costs of moving the product and elevating inventory transfer costs?

產品運輸成本和庫存轉移成本是否增加？

Yeah, go ahead, Jack?

是啊，繼續吧，傑克？

Yeah, one time inventory transfer costs too related to moving that product.

是的，一次性庫存轉移成本也與運送該產品有關。

We also just rebalanced some product in our DCs just to get it optimally positioned.

我們也重新平衡了 DC 中的某些產品，以使其處於最佳定位。

So, yeah, this way also move the product from Europe back to America.

所以，是的，這種方式也可以將產品從歐洲運回美國。

We didn't start off with picking all the right products when we filled the DC in Europe.

當我們填充歐洲配送中心時，我們一開始並沒有挑選所有正確的產品。

And now we see the trends and we realized, oh gosh.

現在我們看到了這種趨勢，並意識到，天哪。

So we got too much of this, too much of that.

所以我們得到了太多這、太多那。

Well, instead of marking down all that product in Europe, it's better for us to just ship it back to Baltimore, feed the core business.

好吧，我們不應該在歐洲降低所有產品的售價，而是將其運回巴爾的摩，以滿足核心業務的需求。

So we did that.

所以我們就這麼做了。

That's another one-time kind of charge.

這是另一種一次性收費。

But at a general selling level, especially in our core business, we like how our margins are trending.

但從整體銷售水準來看，特別是在我們的核心業務中，我們喜歡我們的利潤率趨勢。

We think there's going to be upward opportunity in margins, not downward pressure on margins looking forward.

我們認為，未來利潤率將有上升的機會，而不是下降的壓力。

And Gary said on a demand margin basis, it's also on a ship margin basis, the selling margins on the ship basis in the quarter were inflected positive.

加里表示，以需求利潤率計算，也以船舶利潤率計算，本季以船舶為基礎的銷售利潤率出現了正增長。

Yeah.

是的。

Okay, very helpful.

好的，很有幫助。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝大家。

Stephen Forbes, Guggenheim.

史蒂芬福布斯，古根漢。

Good evening, Gary, Jack.

晚上好，加里、傑克。

Gary, maybe just a two-part question on real estate, given sort of the planned sheer number of openings right planned over the next couple years here.

加里，考慮到未來幾年這裡計劃開設的新店數量，也許關於房地產的問題可以分為兩部分。

So to start, can you speak to maybe the performance payback periods and store level ROISCs that you're sort of expecting in these classes of galleries, maybe relative to what you've spoken to in the past?

那麼首先，您能否談談您對這些類別的畫廊所期望的績效回收期和商店級 ROISC，也許與您過去談到的相比？

And then how have the discussions with landlords and developers evolved over the past couple years?

那麼過去幾年與房東和開發商的討論進度如何？

Maybe you have seen cost pressures normalize in the uniqueness of your model and just the pipeline itself.

也許您已經看到成本壓力在您的模型的獨特性和管道本身中正常化。

How has the conversation with landlords and developers evolved?

與房東和開發商的對話進展如何？

Sure.

當然。

So, yeah, let's start with the payback in ROICs.

是的，讓我們從 ROIC 的回報開始。

Historically, we've always said, the payback of, I think, one to three years, we believe that's still the right number.

從歷史上看，我們總是說，回報期是一到三年，我認為這仍然是正確的數字。

Where it wasn't the right number was anything built during COVID.

在 COVID 期間建造的任何建築的數字都不準確。

Right?

正確的？

Because things that's being built during COVID stopped and started three or four times, and you had raw material costs, and some places go up two to three times or 4x.

因為在疫情期間建造的東西停了三四次又開工了，而且原材料成本也有所上漲，有些地方的價格上漲了兩到三倍甚至四倍。

So anything built during COVID was significantly more expensive, up to three times more.

因此，在疫情期間建造的任何建築物都成本高出許多，最高可達三倍。

I'd say in a general sense, building costs today to build at any level, no matter if you're in retail or any kind of business. are somewhere between 70% and 100% higher.

我想說，從一般意義上講，如今無論你從事零售業還是任何類型的業務，任何級別的建築都是有成本的。大約高出 70% 到 100% 之間。

So it costs us more to build a gallery today than it costs us more to build a gallery today than it did.

因此，我們今天建造一個畫廊的成本比過去要高。

The good news is we have a significant inflection in our demand and our sales.

好消息是我們的需求和銷售出現了明顯變化。

And we have an expectation for returning housing market lift.

我們預期房地產市場將會回升。

But most of the galleries, I think, in the pipeline today that we're opening will be relatively quick paybacks, maybe the really iconic ones like London, Paris might take three or four years, but they might take two years.

但我認為，今天我們籌備開設的大多數畫廊都會相對較快地獲得回報，也許真正具有標誌性的畫廊，如倫敦、巴黎的畫廊可能需要三到四年，但也可能需要兩年。

For example, RH Newport Beach is a good example.

例如，RH Newport Beach 就是一個很好的例子。

We have a developer and a partner there in Irvine company.

我們在爾灣公司有一位開發人員和一位合作夥伴。

I think they cleared about eight retailers.

我認為他們清理了大約 8 家零售商。

So if you think about the investment that a developer partner would make here, they cleared probably eight retailers, took dead rent for several years because our projects take anywhere from two to three years.

因此，如果你考慮一下開發商合作夥伴在這裡進行的投資，他們可能清理了八家零售商，收取了幾年的滯納金，因為我們的專案需要兩到三年的時間。

It takes a long time to get approvals and build these kind of buildings.

獲得批准和建造這類建築需要很長時間。

So they cleared rent for several years.

所以他們幾年來都沒有房租。

They completely cleared the site, ripped down two or three story buildings to clear the site and make it construction ready for us.

他們徹底清理了現場，拆除了兩三層樓的建築，清理了現場，為我們做好了施工準備。

And they invested $25 million, right, we got a TI.

他們投資了 2500 萬美元，對吧，我們得到了 TI。

We probably invested in that one an additional $50 million to $60 million, you know, directionally we're still adding it all up.

我們可能在這個項目上額外投資了 5000 萬到 6000 萬美元，你知道，從方向上講，我們仍在將其全部加起來。

We had a bit of a chaos just trying to get it open for the opening party.

我們在準備開幕式時遇到了一點混亂。

These things are big and complex.

這些事情很大而且很複雜。

But that gallery will likely pay back and from our cash point of view in one year, maybe one and a half.

但從我們的現金角度來看，該畫廊很可能在一年或一年半的時間內償還貸款。

And so -- but you have other ones that -- the ones in Europe, there's not a lot of TI, there's street locations.

所以 — — 但你還有其他的 — — 在歐洲的那些，沒有很多 TI，只有街邊位置。

So this is -- yeah, somewhat bigger investment and we'll see how the revenue.

所以這是—是的，稍微大一點的投資，我們會看看收入如何。

London does what we think it's going to be.

倫敦正如我們所料。

Maybe it's a two-year payback (technical difficulty) might be worth it as much as everything that we just did.

也許兩年的回報（技術難度）可能和我們剛剛做的一切一樣值得。

I mean, I think it could be massively, massively accretive.

我的意思是，我認為它可能帶來巨大的增值。

And so, yeah, we'll still call it maybe the fourth or fifth, fourth inning halfway.

是的，我們仍然會稱之為第四局或第五局，第四局中途。

But again, that always changes, right, as you evolve, because you connect that thoughts, you see more, so on and so forth.

但是，再說一次，這總是會改變的，對吧，隨著你的進化，因為你將這些想法聯繫起來，你會看到更多，等等。

I think it's like, I don't mean to sound arrogant and compare ourselves to Apple, right, but at what point, someone would ask Steve Jobs when they introduced the first Apple phone, and he said, this is going to change everything.

我想，我並不是想顯得傲慢，將我們自己與蘋果進行比較，對吧，但是在什麼時候，有人會問史蒂夫喬布斯他們推出第一款蘋果手機的時間，他說，這將改變一切。

What inning were they in?

他們進行到了哪一局？

No, I mean, what was their market cap then?

不，我的意思是，當時他們的市值是多少？

After the first year of the iPhone or second year of the iPhone, maybe $500 billion, something like that?

iPhone 上市第一年或第二年後，營收可能會達到 5,000 億美元，類似的數字？

Maybe $400 billion, $300 billion?

也許是 4000 億美元、3000 億美元？

I don't know if Apple's worth today, $2.5 trillion?

我不知道蘋果今天的市值是否是 2.5 兆美元？

Yeah, $3 trillion, something like that.

是的，3兆美元，大概這個數字。

So the more you do, the more you see.

所以，你做的越多，你看到的就越多。

The more you see, the more you can do.

看得越多，能做的就越多。

And you go into what I refer to internally as an upward spiral.

然後你就會進入我內心所說的上升螺旋。

And I'd say today, we are in an upward spiral.

我想說，今天我們正處於上升階段。

We're doing more, we're seeing more, therefore, we're doing more and seeing more.

我們做的更多，看到的更多，因此，我們做的更多，看到的更多。

And you go through that cycle, you can keep connecting dots and seeing more.

當你經歷這個循環時，你可以不斷地連接點並看到更多。

So that's why I say competitors, that anybody is hunkering down or trying to harvest in a harvest mode or they're trying to speak out every path point they can out of an operating model, that's a very temporal condition.

所以這就是為什麼我說競爭對手，任何人都在蹲伏或試圖以收穫模式收穫，或者他們試圖從運營模式中說出他們能說出的每一條路徑點，這是一種非常暫時的條件。

Yeah.

是的。

We're in a real upward spiral here that it just going to lead to more and more.

我們正處於一個真正的上升螺旋中，它只會帶來越來越多的結果。

So you'll keep asking me what any of them you're in.

所以你會繼續問我你在哪一家公司。

And I might be perpetually in the third to fifth in.

我可能永遠排在第三到第五位。

I'll keep that in mind.

我會記住這一點。

And then just thinking about some of your comments previously about harvesting process down the road, I mean, on the investments that you're making or you've made in the past.

然後想想您之前關於未來收穫過程的一些評論，我的意思是關於您正在進行的或過去進行的投資。

How are you just thinking about the magnitude and where margins can go a couple of years from now?

您如何看待其規模以及幾年後利潤率會達到何種水準？

No different than we've always thought about it.

與我們一直以來所想的沒有什麼不同。

And yeah, we're always going to be in some level of an investment stage.

是的，我們將始終處於某種程度的投資階段。

That's what you do if you're a brand that's based in invention and innovation.

如果您的品牌以發明和創新為基礎，您就會這麼做。

So I'd say the phase we just went in with a pretty massive investment cycle, not just to scale up and ramp all the product that we have and build the pipeline and so on and so forth, and build the organization to do that and the new partnerships to do that.

所以我想說，我們剛剛進入一個相當大規模的投資週期，不僅僅是為了擴大規模，增加我們所有的產品，建立渠道等等，還要建立組織來實現這一點。一目標。

But also launching Europe, right?

但也要啟動歐洲，對吧？

I mean, that's a big kind of one-time investment you're making.

我的意思是，這是你所做的一項重大的一次性投資。

And so, You know, some of that is behind us.

所以，您知道，其中一些已經過去了。

Yeah, still up here.

是的，還在這裡。

Yeah, some of it's in front of us.

是的，有些就在我們面前。

But yeah, once we build a platform in Europe and once we kind of get the brand going -- look, if we were in year two and yeah, we were cycling Ari Jenglen and we were doing like $8 million, like I'd be really worried.

但是，是的，一旦我們在歐洲建立了一個平台，一旦我們的品牌開始運作——你看，如果我們在第二年，是的，我們騎自行車Ari Jenglen，我們賺了800 萬美元，就像我會真的很擔心。

But when I sit there and I go like, okay, we're at demand tracking at $35 million to $40 million, somewhere around, you think net $38 million, something like that.

但當我坐在那裡想，好吧，我們的需求追蹤在 3500 萬美元到 4000 萬美元左右，你認為淨收入是 3800 萬美元，諸如此類。

Then you have turned that into revenue, $32 million, something like that, $33 million.

然後你把它變成了收入，3200 萬美元，或 3300 萬美元左右。

And then you say, I don't know, what's lending going to be with $9.7 million people in the heart of Mayfair?

然後你說，我不知道，對梅菲爾中心地區 970 萬美元的人來說，貸款會是多少？

If you said it's three times that, which I think could be conservative, that's $100 million in revenue.

如果你說是這個數字的三倍，我認為這可能是保守的，那就是 1 億美元的收入。

I hope it's four times that or five times that, that's $130 million to $160 million in revenue.

我希望這個數字能達到四倍或五倍，也就是 1.3 億到 1.6 億美元的營收。

And that's by the way, this is with the brand relatively unknown and we went into an unknown place where the only retailer of our kind for like, I don't know, 100 miles.

順便說一句，這個品牌相對不為人知，我們進入了一個陌生的地方，那裡是方圓 100 英里內唯一一家同類零售商。

It's like, it's a long way to anything like that.

就像，做任何類似的事情都有很長的路要走。

So I think, you know, margins are where we think the margin model ought to be on a regular basis going forward.

所以我認為，利潤率就是我們認為利潤率模型在未來應該定期存在的地方。

I mean, we're also in the depths of a bad housing market.

我的意思是，我們也正深陷低迷的房地產市場。

And somebody said, oh, well, you know, homes increased 3%, right?

然後有人說，哦，你知道，房價上漲了 3%，對吧？

That's a dead cap bounce.

這是一次死帽反彈。

You know like the housing market has not shifted yet, not meaningfully growing yet.

你知道，房地產市場尚未轉變，尚未實現顯著成長。

And when it does, will benefit from it and you'll start to also see where the margin model will be.

當它發生時，人們將從中受益，並且您也會開始看到利潤模型將會在哪裡。

But right now, if you're looking at a margin model, you're looking at a margin model based on a bad housing market and a significant investment cycle.

但是現在，如果您正在查看利潤模型，那麼您正在查看的利潤模型是基於糟糕的房地產市場和重大投資週期的。

Maybe the biggest investment cycle, actually, absolutely the biggest investment cycle we've ever been in.

這可能是最大的投資週期，實際上，絕對是我們經歷過的最大的投資週期。

So you're probably looking at bottom margins.

因此您可能正在查看底部邊距。

Great, thanks a lot.

太好了，非常感謝。

Appreciate it, and enjoy my month's CTO.

非常感謝，並享受我本月的 CTO。

Okay, sorry I missed your first opening, Matt.

好的，很抱歉我錯過了你的第一個開場白，馬特。

Curtis Nagle, Bank of America.

美國銀行的柯蒂斯‧納格爾。

Great, thanks very much for taking it.

太好了，非常感謝您接受它。

Just a couple ones.

只有幾個。

One, in terms of just thinking about demand and the revenue trends, when should these equalize or when should the gap narrow?

第一，僅從需求和所得趨勢的角度來思考，什麼時候這些應該均衡，或什麼時候差距應該縮小？

And maybe more specifically looking at the first half of '25, should we hold it something similar to what we're seeing in 4Q?

也許更具體地看一下 25 年上半年，我們是否應該保持與第四季類似的水平？

Is that roughly the right math and follow up after that?

這大致是正確的計算，之後還會繼續跟進嗎？

That's a good question.

這是個好問題。

I think it's going to -- yeah, it's going to start to narrow.

我認為它會—是的，它會開始變窄。

Our stocks are getting better.

我們的庫存正在好轉。

Yeah, we invested in more inventory to kind of close that gap.

是的，我們投資了更多庫存來彌補這一差距。

And so I think it'll be a little bumpy for a while until the selection of new product slows down a little bit.

因此，我認為在新產品的選擇速度稍微放慢之前，這段時間的情況會有些坎坷。

But we'll have a stronger point of view in the next quarter or two.

但我們在接下來的一兩個季度會有一個更強烈的觀點。

But clearly, we see the gap shrinking.

但顯然，我們看到差距正在縮小。

The end stocks are going up, but there's a whole new cycle of newness coming that could have some real runaways, that create really high back stocks and longer lead times and so on and so forth.

最終庫存正在上升，但即將出現的全新周期可能會出現一些真正的失控，從而造成庫存過高和交貨時間延長等等。

But the initial gap was closing, could get a little wider and bounce around a bit, but directionally, I don't see it going back to as big if it was in the beginning of the transition.

但最初的差距正在縮小，可能會變得更大一點，並略有反彈，但從方向上看，我認為它不會回到轉型初期那麼大。

[That would be, I guess, a high-class problem if that does happen].

[我想，如果真的發生了這種情況，那將是一個高級問題]。

Second one, I guess, Gary, for you.

我想，加里，你是第二個。

Just trying to think through very early stages here, but potential demand synergies for the core product in the trade business with this acceleration and expansion of the Waterworks business, which I think as you said, it has a strong core B2B customer base.

只是試著思考這裡的早期階段，但隨著水務業務的加速和擴張，貿易業務的核心產品具有潛在的需求協同效應，我認為正如您所說，它擁有強大的核心 B2B 客戶群。

Sure, yeah.

當然。

I think, well, when the contracts out of our business start there, almost can't benefit from the new product yet because we're still getting in stock in the best product and we still are building inventory to get into -- to transform the galleries.

我認為，當我們的業務合約開始時，幾乎無法從新產品中獲益，因為我們仍然在儲備最好的產品，我們仍然在建立庫存以進行轉型畫廊。

I mean, some of the newest product is coming out and outperforming the phase one product, right?

我的意思是，一些最新產品的推出和表現優於第一階段的產品，對嗎？

So we're going to have to transition galleries again to get the best product, which is again, part of an upward spiral.

因此，我們將必須再次轉變畫廊來獲得最好的產品，這又是上升螺旋的一部分。

So I'd say the galleries today are a third right.

因此我認為今天的畫廊是第三個權利。

I think there's two more transitions in the gallery to kind of optimize that, which that means it's going to take a while for the best product to be available to the contract business.

我認為畫廊中還有兩種過渡可以進行最佳化，這意味著需要一段時間才能將最好的產品提供給合約業務。

I think that's what you mean by the trade business, but maybe I've got it wrong.

我想這就是你所說的貿易業務，但也許我理解錯了。

And then Waterworks, just having a higher exposure.

然後是 Waterworks，曝光率更高。

And our interior designers, being able to spec it across their projects and our customers, being able to see it on our website, see it in a source book, just the brand recognition and awareness of Waterworks is going to grow and the accessibility is going to grow.

我們的室內設計師能夠在他們的專案中使用它，我們的客戶能夠在我們的網站上看到它，在資料書中看到它，Waterworks 的品牌認知度和知名度將會提高，可及性也會提高成長。

So we think that's going to be a big idea.

因此我們認為這將是一個偉大的想法。

How big can it be?

它能有多大？

We think it looks like a billion dollar idea to us when we kind of track it out.

當我們追蹤它的時候，我們認為它對我們來說就像是一個價值十億美元的想法。

So the synergies, and then just taking the best designs and translating those into smaller sizes for baby, child, teen is going to be a real synergy.

所以，協同效應就是，採用最好的設計，並將其轉化為適合嬰兒、兒童和青少年的較小尺寸，這將產生真正的協同效應。

And as much as retailers don't like returns, returns are what drives the outlet business.

儘管零售商不喜歡退貨，但退貨正是推動奧特萊斯業務的動力。

The outlet business is dragged behind the core business significantly, right?

奧特萊斯業務明顯落後於核心業務，對嗎？

Because there's not enough returns of the new product yet, which will drive that.

因為新產品的回報還不夠多，這將推動這一趨勢。

So again, it's all part of an upward spiral, right?

所以再說一遍，這都是上升螺旋的一部分，對嗎？

And one thing gets the other.

一件事物會帶走另一件事物。

And all of the learnings right now, all of the things that we're seeing, all of the dots we can now connect because there's a whole new set of data that we haven't had.

我們現在能夠學到的所有東西、看到的所有事物以及所有的點都連接起來，因為我們現在擁有一整套前所未有的新數據。

And so the data becomes richer, you become smarter, you start investing wiser.

因此數據變得更加豐富，您變得更加聰明，您開始更明智地投資。

Your next ideas are likely better than your last ideas, because you're more informed, you have more knowledge, you're making better decisions, assessing things more correctly.

您的下一個想法可能比上一個想法更好，因為您了解更多信息，擁有更多知識，能夠做出更好的決策，能夠更正確地評估事物。

So I don't know if that answers your question or not?

所以我不知道這是否回答了你的問題？

No, that's very clear and I appreciate it, Gary.

不，這非常清楚，我很感激，加里。

Happy holidays.

節日快樂。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Curtis.

謝謝你，柯蒂斯。

Seth Basham, Wedbush Securities.

韋德布希證券公司的塞思·巴沙姆（Seth Basham）。

Thanks a lot, and good afternoon.

非常感謝，下午好。

My question is just regarding the product transformation, and what you've characterized it for as inflection?

我的問題只是關於產品轉型，您將其描述為轉折點嗎？

You previously talked about peak inflection points, sometime in early 2025.

您之前談到過峰值拐點，大約在 2025 年初。

Well, this upward spiral that you're seeing right now, would you think that peak inflection is extended outward?

那麼，您現在看到的這個上升螺旋，您是否認為峰值拐點是向外延伸的？

Massively outwards.

大量向外擴展。

You know, when I talk about the peak inflection, like think about what I knew, almost nothing.

你知道，當我談到峰值拐點時，想想我所知道的，幾乎什麼都不知道。

Right?

正確的？

We had new products hitting, we saw trends on any product, we're tracking it out, what does it look like, but we didn't have enough data and information to really know any more than we knew.

我們有新產品上市，我們看到任何產品的趨勢，我們正在追蹤它，它是什麼樣的，但我們沒有足夠的數據和資訊來真正了解我們所知道的更多資訊。

Yeah.

是的。

So, God, worse peak inflection now based on what we know, I think it's several years out.

所以，天哪，根據我們所知，現在更糟糕的峰值拐點已經出現，我認為還需要幾年的時間。

And previously you talked about deconflexion being sort of the strongest year-over-year growth.

之前您談到，deconflexion 是年成長最強勁的。

I assume you're not thinking the strongest year-over-year growth is going to be a few years out, but you think that you'll see strong growth for the next few years, in other words.

我認為您並不認為最強勁的同比增長會出現在幾年後，但換句話說，您認為未來幾年將會看到強勁的成長。

I think the strongest growth might be a year or two up.

我認為最強勁的成長可能還要持續一兩年。

Because the significant brand extension I talked about is significant, not small, it's meaningful.

因為我講的重大品牌延伸是重大的，不是小事，而是有意義的。

And the amount of new product that's coming, for example, a year ago, I'd say a year into this transformation, I kind of reframed everything for our internal team and our partners.

例如，一年前，也就是轉型一年後，新產品的數量不斷增加，我為我們的內部團隊和合作夥伴重新規劃了一切。

And so I said, look, we are still in the early stages of what I called a product development super cycle, something we've never done.

所以我說，看，我們仍然處於所謂的產品開發超級週期的早期階段，這是我們從未做過的事情。

Because we haven't enough data to say, like, this is this can be much bigger.

因為我們沒有足夠的數據來判斷這個數字是否會更大。

We think about the market completely differently.

我們對市場的看法完全不同。

We think about the size of the market, the consumer.

我們考慮市場規模和消費者規模。

We see more consumers, we see more homes, we see more rooms, we see more aesthetics, we see a significantly bigger opportunity for RH.

我們看到了更多的消費者，看到了更多的家庭，看到了更多的房間，看到了更多的美學，我們看到了 RH 的更大機會。

In some ways, I'd say the classical way to think about us is as a specialty brand, right, with a certain point of view.

從某種程度上來說，我認為看待我們的傳統方式是將我們視為一個專業品牌，對吧，有某種觀點。

And that's how I'd probably say I looked at it over the last20 years.

或許這就是我過去 20 年對它的看法。

How do we build this specialty brand with a certain aesthetic point of view and grow this brand?

我們要如何以一定的美感觀點去打造這個特色品牌，並把這個品牌做大做強？

I think about it differently today.

今天我對此有不同的看法。

And I think about it a lot differently just in the last 45 days.

僅在過去 45 天裡，我對此有了很大不同的看法。

I just haven't articulated it completely and clearly based on what we've learned.

我只是還沒有根據我們所學到的知識完整、清楚地表達它。

And it is directionally what we've framed over the last five years, right, with our long-term business vision and ecosystem.

這是我們過去五年來透過長期商業願景和生態系統所製定的方向。

We've said, there are those with taste and no scale and those with scale and no taste.

我們說過，有些人有品味而沒有規模，有些人有規模而沒有品味。

And the idea of scaling taste is large and far-reaching.

擴大品味的想法十分宏大且影響深遠。

And then we we've articulated, right?

然後我們就表達清楚了，對吧？

So we like all the one pager kind of a bigger view of how that can play.

因此，我們喜歡透過一頁紙這種更廣闊的視角來了解其如何發揮作用。

And I think what the nuance is, now I'm beginning to see us and the team.

我認為細微差別在於，現在我開始了解我們和這個團隊了。

It has a beginning to see us as maybe a platform for taste, not just a brand.

人們開始把我們看作是品味平台，而不僅僅是一個品牌。

So you think about -- I don't know.

所以你想想——我不知道。

Think about platforms or marketplaces. t

考慮平台或市場。噸

I mean, Wayfair is a marketplace somewhat.

我的意思是，Wayfair 在某種程度上是一個市場。

Is it a brand?

它是一個品牌嗎？

Of course, it's recognized for certain things and so on and so forth, but they don't really -- it's not their product.

當然，它因某些事物等等而得到認可，但實際上他們並不這麼認為——這不是他們的產品。

It's available everywhere else.

其他地方都可以使用。

There's nothing unique about the product and Wayfair, but it is a platform and marketplace that's driving $12 billion in revenue, some number like that, right?

該產品和 Wayfair 並沒有什麼獨特之處，但它是一個平台和市場，可帶來 120 億美元的收入，像這樣的數字，對吧？

You know, not all furniture, they sell lots of things.

你知道，不是所有的家具，他們賣很多東西。

But if you start to think, can you transition the thinking about RH from just a classic way to think about a specialty brand?

但如果你開始思考，你能否將對 RH 的思維從傳統方式轉變為對專業品牌的思維？

And think about RH as a platform for taste and think about how you could dimensionalize taste across multiple aesthetics, across different life stages, across different kinds of homes and so on and so forth, that to us that looks multiple times bigger potentially than I thought we could be.

把 RH 視為品味的平台，思考如何將品味擴展到多種美學、不同的生活階段、不同類型的家庭等等，對我們來說，這看起來比我想像的要大很多倍我們可以。

And we're still kind of shaping that thinking, but some of it we can see relatively clearly today.

我們仍在塑造這種思維，但今天我們可以相對清楚地看到其中的一些。

And that's why I think the growth trajectory or the vector may continue longer than we think.

這就是為什麼我認為成長軌跡或向量可能會比我們想像的持續更長時間。

And we may think, oh, you're running -- the core business is trending at 25 to 30 up, right?

我們可能會想，哦，你正在運作——核心業務的趨勢是成長 25 到 30%，對嗎？

Well, you're going to come up to 25 to 30, are you going to grow 8 or 10 on top of that?

好吧，您要達到 25 到 30，您還要在此基礎上增加 8 或 10 嗎？

I don't know, can we grow 30 or 40 on top of that?

我不知道，我們能在此基礎上再增加 30 或 40 嗎？

It's not impossible, based on what we see today.

從我們今天看到的情況來看，這並非不可能。

I don't want to -- I'm not promising anything.

我不想——我沒有承諾任何事。

I'm not trying to give any kind of guidance.

我並不是想提供任何指導。

I'm just trying to kind of share it with you directly how we're thinking and what we see.

我只是想直接與你們分享我們的想法和所見。

Again, the more we do, the more we see.

再說一遍，我們做的越多，看到的就越多。

The more we see, the more we can do.

我們看到的越多，我們能做的就越多。

And we see a lot more than we've ever seen right now, because of the product transformation and the product development super cycle and the things we're doing and the dots we're connecting.

由於產品轉型和產品開發超級週期以及我們正在做的事情和我們正在連接的點，我們看到了比以往任何時候都多的東西。

And so I think this upward spiral that we're in can be exponentially bigger and last significantly longer than if you would have asked me a couple of months ago.

因此我認為，我們所處的這種上升螺旋可能會呈指數級增長，持續時間也會比幾個月前問我時長得多。

Wonderful.

精彩的。

And just last follow-up.

這是最後的後續行動。

So I know you'll provide more information next year, but this significant brand extension that you think could be worth over a billion dollars, is it within furniture or is it more adjacent beyond furniture?

所以我知道您明年會提供更多信息，但您認為這個價值可能超過 10 億美元的重要品牌延伸是位於家具領域內，還是位於家具之外？

No, it's just kind of within the same thing we're doing it's just unique, different, aesthetically different, and probably addresses the biggest part of the market.

不，它只是和我們正在做的事情有點相似，只是獨特、不同、美學上不同，並且可能涵蓋了最大的市場部分。

And so. -- and we think it's going to be amplified by what we think is that a trend that is coming.

所以。 ——而且我們認為，這種現象將會因即將到來的趨勢而進一步加劇。

Can't wait.

等不及了。

Thanks a lot, Gary.

非常感謝，加里。

Okay, thank you, Seth.

好的，謝謝你，賽斯。

Andrew Carter, Stifel.

安德魯卡特（Stifel）。

Hey, thank you.

嘿，謝謝你。

Good evening.

晚安.

Just wanted to ask about the inventory kind of going up.

只是想問一下庫存上漲的情況。

Again, this quarter, the purchase is up 30%.

再次，本季的購買量增加了 30%。

Could you talk through kind of what kind of inefficiencies are in there?

您能談談其中存在哪些效率低下的問題嗎？

Is there some planning around there?

那邊有什麼規劃嗎？

I know that you're exiting China.

我知道你要離開中國。

Is there any safety stock in there for that?

那裡有安全庫存嗎？

Already contemplating that, and you're exiting Mexico.

已經在考慮這一點了，而且你要離開墨西哥。

And on those two points, correct me if I'm wrong, China was 22% of your purchase dollars last year.

關於這兩點，如果我錯了，請糾正我，去年中國佔了你們購買總額的 22%。

I don't know if you ever disclosed Mexico.

我不知道您是否披露過墨西哥。

Where's that going in turn now?

現在情況又如何呢？

Thanks.

謝謝。

The first part of everything you said, I'd say correct.

我認為您所說的一切的第一部分都是正確的。

That would be my answer.

這就是我的答案。

The last part, where's that going?

最後一部分，要去哪裡？

I think we've said where we're going in China, it all depends what's happening in Mexico.

我想我們已經說過我們將要去中國哪裡，這一切都取決於墨西哥發生的情況。

Look, Donald Trump wrote The Art of the Deal.

瞧，唐納德·川普寫了《交易的藝術》。

And if you've ever read The Art of the Deal, if you do, you will see the negotiations starting to play out.

如果您讀過《交易的藝術》，您會看到談判開始展開。

It is a global negotiation happening right now.

這是一場目前正在進行的全球談判。

Where will Mexico -- what will happen with Mexican tariffs?

墨西哥的關稅會怎樣？

You know, what move should we make proactively?

你知道我們應該主動採取什麼行動嗎？

We're making some moves proactively.

我們正在積極採取一些措施。

But I think Mexico's making moves.

但我認為墨西哥正在採取行動。

You're already hearing from inside sources that they're moving troops to the border.

您已經從內部消息來源獲悉，他們正在向邊境派遣軍隊。

They're going to try to take more responsibility for immigration.

他們將盡力在移民問題上承擔更多責任。

And if I was the president of Mexico, I sure would, because I wouldn't want the biggest economy of the world to cut me off from trade.

如果我是墨西哥總統，我肯定會這麼做，因為我不希望世界上最大的經濟體切斷與我的貿易聯繫。

So Mexico, I think, is a little different than China, right?

所以我認為墨西哥與中國有點不同，對嗎？

Mexico's not going to become the next global superpower that has a military that can threaten the United States.

墨西哥不會成為下一個擁有能夠威脅美國的軍事實力的全球超級強國。

China can, right?

中國可以吧？

So if you think about why our country has never been attacked besides 9-11, which is basically some terrorists boarding our own planes and flying them into our buildings, that's a very unique attack.

所以如果你想想為什麼我們的國家除了 9-11 之外從未遭受過襲擊，那基本上是一些恐怖分子登上我們自己的飛機並撞向我們的建築物，那是一次非常獨特的襲擊。

There hasn't been a military that has attacked the United States internationally on our home ground since when?

自從什麼時候開始沒有一支軍隊在美國本土發動國際攻擊？

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

是的，是的，確實如此。

Why?

為什麼？

Because we have the strongest military nuclear arsenal in the world.

因為我們擁有世界上最強大的軍事核武庫。

So, I mean, look, Donald Trump is a great negotiator.

所以，我的意思是，看，唐納德·川普是一位偉大的談判者。

I think he's looking at the world playing field and saying how do you use leverage?Negotiation

我認為他正在審視世界競爭環境，並問如何利用槓桿？

without leverage is impersonation.

沒有槓桿就是冒充。

Hope that they don't find out you're not who you are.

希望他們不要發現你不是你自己。

So he's really good at using leverage.

所以他非常擅長利用槓桿。

He's done it before.

他以前做過這件事。

We're seeing him do it now.

我們現在看到他這麼做。

He hasn't even taken office.

他甚至還沒上任。

And The Art of the Deal is in full play right now.

而現在，「交易的藝術」正在充分的發揮。

It's actually quite impressive, I would say.

我想說，這確實令人印象深刻。

And so how's Mexico going to play out?

那麼墨西哥將會如何表現呢？

I don't think -- if you're in Mexico, you do not want that faucet turned off.

我不認為——如果你在墨西哥，你不會想關掉水龍頭。

Yeah, you don't want 25% tariffs.

是的，你不要25%的關稅。

I'm not saying it's not going to happen.

我並不是說這不會發生。

It may happen.

有可能發生。

It may happen for a while.

這種情況可能會持續一段時間。

I think we have too much leverage there.

我認為我們在這方面擁有太多的影響力。

China is a whole different story.

中國的情況則完全不同。

It's a whole different game.

這是一個完全不同的遊戲。

But if you even think about what happened to North Korea in Trump's first term, I mean, the guy in North Korea was sending missiles over Japan, what, every week, saying he could hit California?

但如果你想想川普第一任期內朝鮮發生的事情，我的意思是，北韓每週都在向日本上空發射飛彈，還說可以擊中加州？

Trump met with him once and he never sent another missile.

川普與他見過一次面，之後他就再也沒有發射過飛彈。

Why?

為什麼？

Because he liked Trump?

因為他喜歡川普？

No.

不。

For another reason.

出於另一個原因。

You know, so we're going to see a lot of negotiations played out here.

你知道，我們將會看到這裡進行很多談判。

I don't think there'll be a lot of decisions that becomes big negative for us or for the US economy.

我認為不會有很多決定會對我們或美國經濟產生重大負面影響。

I think the United States of America has a lot of leverage right now.

我認為美國現在擁有很大的影響力。

And I think we have a leader that knows how to use leverage.

我認為我們的領導人知道如何利用影響力。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And then kind of switching gears a little bit.

然後稍微轉換一下話題。

You talked about going into a massive cashflow mode.

您談到了進入大規模現金流模式。

How are you thinking about that in terms of the external investments you funded?

從您資助的外部投資來看，您是如何考慮這一點的？

I know you talked a little bit about prioritization.

我知道您談論了一些優先順序的問題。

Last call, I don't know if those are being de-emphasized as they're off the table, but in terms of the guest house, the real estate JV.

最後一次，我不知道這些是否會被淡化，因為它們已經被排除在外了，但就賓館、房地產合資企業而言。

Do you go lean into those more heavily, or is it just more of a prioritization on the core business?

您會更加重視這些，還是只是優先考慮核心業務？

Oh, I think there's always a prioritization in the core business.

哦，我認為核心業務總是有優先順序的。

There are certain opportunities that will unveil themselves at certain times.

某些機會在特定的時間會自然出現。

And like an Aspen joint venture and the opportunity to develop an ecosystem in Aspen, which we think is a one of a kind opportunity.

就像阿斯彭的合資企業和在阿斯彭開發生態系統的機會一樣，我們認為這是一個獨一無二的機會。

And we think there'll be a -- we think a very, very good, if not, outstanding return on that investment as it unfolds.

我們認為，隨著專案的開展，這項投資將獲得非常好的回報，甚至是卓越的回報。

Unfortunately, we hit a housing market, but you know down draft and high interest rates and that's not necessarily good for an investment cycle in real estate.

不幸的是，我們衝擊了房地產市場，但你知道下行壓力和高利率，這對房地產投資週期來說不一定是好事。

So those things get deprioritized, but we do have a gallery opening there.

因此這些事情的優先順序就降低了，但我們確實在那裡開了一家畫廊。

We have a guest house that's coming.

我們即將建造一家賓館。

We finally got the city to approve our facade and we'll probably do a few residences and other things that we talked about.

我們最終得到了市政府對我們外觀設計的批准，我們可能會建造一些住宅和其他我們談到的東西。

Yeah, so that will happen and I think it'll start to become more of a harvesting cycle, from a investment cycle in the Aspen JV.

是的，這會發生，而且我認為它將開始變得更像一個收穫週期，從 Aspen JV 的投資週期開始。

We'll turn real estate assets into cash.

我們將把房地產資產轉化為現金。

We'll have a gallery, we'll have a guest house, and so on and so forth.

我們將有一個畫廊，一所賓館，等等。

The prioritization I think will always be on the core business.

我認為優先考慮的永遠是核心業務。

Everything we do, whether it is an Aspen JV any other investments we make are all to amplify and render the core business more valuable to amplify the core business, amplify the brand, have people think about the brand, have people see the brand and perceive the brand.

我們所做的一切，無論是阿斯彭合資企業，還是我們所做的任何其他投資，都是為了擴大核心業務，使其更有價值，擴大核心業務，擴大品牌，讓人們思考品牌，讓人們看到品牌並感知品牌。

And I think we're doing a very good job in building a globally iconic brand.

我認為我們在打造全球標誌性品牌方面做得非常出色。

I don't think we're there yet.

我認為我們還沒到達那裡。

But we are there, looking through a lot of people's lives.

但我們在那裡，見證著許多人的生活。

I mean, this brand, I think, is seen very differently than any other brand in our category.

我的意思是，我認為這個品牌與我們類別中的任何其他品牌都非常不同。

I don't think anybody is close from a brand perception point of view.

從品牌認知角度來看，我認為無人能及。

And that's taking years of investment, years of work to craft.

這需要多年的投資和多年的努力才能實現。

Are we where we think we want to be?

我們是否處在我們想要處的地方？

No, this brand will continue to evolve.

不，這個品牌還會繼續發展。

But as I said earlier, we are in a significant investment mode, the biggest we've ever had.

但正如我之前所說，我們正處於重大投資模式，這是我們有史以來最大的投資。

We're cycling some of that.

我們正在循環利用其中的一些。

We will keep investing.

我們將繼續投資。

I don't think it will be today as the opportunities we see.

我認為，我們今天不會看到這樣的機會。

I don't think it'll be at the same pace.

我認為不會以同樣的速度發展。

A lot of the investments we've made, whether it's billion's new brand extension and other things, there's typical investment paid.

我們所做的許多投資，無論是十億的新品牌延伸或其他方面，都是典型的投資回報。

They're an advertising investment to mail a book.

他們是一項郵寄書籍的廣告投資。

Of course, there is.

當然有。

Do we have to build new stores for that new investment?

我們是否必須為這項新投資建造新店？

No.

不。

Does it leverage our current platform?

它是否利用了我們目前的平台？

Yes.

是的。

Is it merchandised by the same people?

是同一個人銷售的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Is it the same product development team?

是同一個產品開發團隊嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Is it -- so there's massive leverage in a lot of things we're doing.

是的——所以我們做的很多事情都有巨大的影響力。

But setting up Europe is an expensive piece.

但建立歐洲是一項昂貴的工程。

And so, that'd be leverage, you know, 230 basis points or so, you know, if you just pack that 230 basis points on this business, the model looks a lot better.

所以，這就是槓桿，你知道，230 個基點左右，你知道，如果你把這 230 個基點計入這項業務，模型看起來會好得多。

If you took some of the other investments out that we've made in the real estate platform and other things that are creating more depreciation, the model looks pretty good in a very down housing market.

如果去掉我們在房地產平台上進行的一些其他投資以及其他導致更多折舊的投資，那麼在房地產市場低迷的情況下，該模型看起來相當不錯。

Now, recap that model with the inflection and vector that is being built and an investment cycle that's going down, right?

現在，重新回顧一下正在建立的拐點和向量以及正在下降的投資週期，對嗎？

It's how I say it.

我就是這麼說的。

So you get a completely different outcome from a pre-cash flow point of view.

因此，從現金流前的角度來看，您會得到完全不同的結果。

Thanks, I'll pass it on.

謝謝，我會傳達的。

Happy holidays.

節日快樂。

Happy holidays, thank you.

節日快樂，謝謝。

Brian Nagel, Oppenheimer.

奧本海默的布萊恩·納格爾。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Congrats on the improving momentum within the business.

恭喜業務成長勢頭良好。

So my question, and it's probably going to be a bit of a follow-up here, but just looking at the business.

所以我的問題是，這裡可能有點後續，但只是看一下業務。

And Gary, you talk a lot about, you had to talk a lot about the last several quarters about the macro environment we discussed here on the call tonight, but you're looking at the business and the improving demand trajectory you're seeing.

加里，您談了很多，您必須談很多關於我們在今晚的電話會議上討論的過去幾個季度的宏觀環境，但您正在關注業務和您所看到的不斷改善的需求軌跡。

Are you -- do you think -- clearly the new product is helping or driving this, but do you think you're also starting to see maybe the early signs of some, say, let up in the US housing market?

您是否認為，新產品顯然有助於或推動了這一趨勢，但您是否認為，也許您也開始看到一些早期跡象，例如美國房地產市場放緩的跡象？

I don't see our competitors having getting that.

我不認為我們的競爭對手能夠做到這一點。

So are we the only ones getting it?

那麼只有我們才得到它嗎？

I don't know.

我不知道。

Do I think there's a pent up demand and there are few people having to buy homes?

我是否認為有被壓抑的需求並且很少人買房？

Yes, but the numbers wouldn't say it's the macros is the issue, otherwise, you'd see a more broad pickup.

是的，但是數字不會顯示巨集是問題所在，否則，你會看到更廣泛的成長。

So, I think people are more optimistic.

因此我認為人們更加樂觀。

I think there might be a few more people stepping into the housing market.

我認為可能會有更多的人進入房地產市場。

(technical difficult)

（技術難度）

For the most part, our industry is down 7% or 8%.

總體而言，我們的行業下降了 7% 或 8%。

I mean, there's not too many people that have positive growth right now.

我的意思是，目前實現正成長的人並不多。

And even if you look at our growth from a comparable basis, there's only a two-point difference between total demand and comparable demand.

即使從可比較基礎來看我們的成長，總需求和可比較需求之間只有兩個百分點的差異。

Right?

正確的？

So, could we be getting a point or two from the macros a little better?

那麼，我們能否從宏中更好地獲得一兩分呢？

Maybe.

或許。

But I don't, I don't think that's meaningful.

但我不這麼認為，我認為這沒有意義。

I think it's really meaningful is, is the result of a very targeted and well executed product transformation of a size and kind that the world has never seen.

我認為它的真正意義在於，它是一次非常有針對性且執行良好的產品轉型的結果，其規模和類型是世界上從未見過的。

Helpful.

很有幫助。

Then this on that, my follow-up question.

那麼這是我的後續問題。

So with regard to the product transformation, like you just said very significant product transformation.

因此就產品轉型而言，就像您剛才所說的，非常重要的產品轉型。

So going forward, I think I was someone asked a question before I think what any we're in, I think someone said 6 or something.

因此，繼續前進，我想在我想我們處於什麼位置之前有人問了我一個問題，我想有人說了 6 或類似的數字。

But I guess the question I'm asking is, should we as we think about RH over the next few years?

但我想我要問的問題是，我們在未來幾年是否應該考慮 RH？

I mean, is it going to be a more aggressive more consistent product introductions than we had over the last couple years or was this really one big step up?

我的意思是，這會比我們過去幾年推出的產品更積極、更一致，還是這真的是一個很大的進步？

I think it's -- as I tried to articulate earlier, we see a much bigger market opportunity.

我認為——正如我之前試圖闡述的那樣，我們看到了更大的市場機會。

And I think you're going to see a much more aggressive approach to expanding the product, particularly the

我認為你會看到一種更積極的方式來擴展產品，特別是

[by product].

[副產品]。

And really that's how we got it right.

事實上，這正是我們做對的方式。

I mean, in the early days, I think I used to talk about -- I think I talked about it publicly.

我的意思是，在早期，我想我曾經談論過——我想我公開談論過它。

I came up with a term here called direct sensor growth.

我在這裡提出了一個術語，叫做直接感測器增長。

And we said, look, we are going to not -- in the early days, I said, we're not going to limit our assortment to the size of the stores.

我們說，看，我們不會——在早期，我就說過，我們不會將我們的商品種類限制在商店的規模內。

We're going to size our assortment to the potential of the market.

我們將根據市場的潛力來確定我們的產品組合規模。

So we're going to merchandise beyond the four walls of the stores, and we're going to use our source books and our website to prevent that assortment.

因此，我們要將商品賣到商店之外，並且要使用我們的資料書和網站來避免這種分類。

And that strategy is how we went from $300 million to where we are today.

正是透過這個策略，我們的資產從 3 億美元發展到了今天的規模。

I'd say, in the last 10 years, post the introduction of [MODER], we call it, nine years, we kind of slowed down that process.

我想說，在過去的 10 年裡，也就是推出 [MODER] 之後的九年裡，我們減緩了這一進程。

I think we perceived ourselves as more mature, slowed down, newness, slow down expansion of the product.

我認為我們認為自己變得更加成熟，放慢了速度，放慢了新產品的擴張速度。

And that's what I tried to articulate earlier, is I think we see the brand differently.

這就是我之前試圖表達的，我認為我們對品牌的看法不同。

I think we see the brand bigger.

我認為我們將品牌看得更大。

I think by kind of slowing down our product transformation or product expansion and brand expansion, I think we allow competitors to enter the market that would not have been able to be successful doing what we're doing.

我認為，透過放慢我們的產品轉型、產品擴展和品牌擴展的速度，我們允許競爭對手進入市場，而這些競爭對手如果做我們所做的事情，是無法取得成功的。

And I think it's shaped by the fact that the decision was now kind of seeing the world more traditionally, seeing RH as a specialty brand, not a platform for taste.

我認為這是由這樣的事實決定的：現在我們的決策是以更傳統的方式看待世界，將 RH 視為專業品牌，而不是品味平台。

Yeah.

是的。

So this idea of seeing RH not as a specialty brand, but a taste platform, helps us see a much bigger market.

因此，將 RH 視為品味平台而非專業品牌的想法有助於我們看到更大的市場。

And allows us to see a much more disruptive RH brand that can take share from more people based on our taste, our style, and it's the power of our platform.

讓我們看到一個更具顛覆性的 RH 品牌，它可以根據我們的品味、我們的風格從更多的人那裡奪取市場份額，這就是我們平台的力量。

Appreciate it.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jonathan Matuszewski, Jeffreys.

喬納森‧馬圖舍夫斯基，傑弗里斯。

Great, good evening and thanks for taking my questions.

很好，晚上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

The first one's on pricing.

第一個問題是關於定價。

Gary, you shared some helpful color related to clearance activity for discontinued product.

加里，您分享了一些與停產產品清倉活動相關的有用資訊。

I was hoping you could just comment on the pricing strategy for some of the new collections, s when you talk about maybe peak year-over-year sales growth, one to two years out, is that going to be driven by higher prices from the new collections or greater unit velocity?

我希望你能評論一些新系列的定價策略，當你談到一到兩年後可能達到的同比銷售增長高峰時，這是否會受到更高價格的推動？ ？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I don't exactly know.

我不太清楚。

You know, probably both.

你知道，可能兩者都有。

But again, we're going to keep learning.

但我們會繼續學習。

I think a lot of it is we just see a much bigger market.

我認為很大程度是因為我們看到了一個更大的市場。

You know, we have more leverage.

你知道，我們擁有更大的影響力。

We can use that leverage to have more disruptive value.

我們可以利用這種影響力來創造更多的顛覆性價值。

I think people today, if you could buy a dining chair at RH versus somewhere else, I think the consumer would feel better about buying from RH, because of the positioning and the perception of our brand versus online off of some other platform versus way fair versus other competitors we might have.

我認為，如果今天人們可以在 RH 而不是其他地方購買餐椅，我認為消費者會更願意從 RH 購買，因為我們的品牌定位和認知度，而不是其他一些在線平台，而不是公平的與我們可能擁有的其他競爭對手相比。

I think you'd rather walk into one of our galleries and you would perceive that the taste and style is validated by us.

我想您寧願走進我們的一個畫廊，您就會感受到我們的品味和風格是經過驗證的。

That the brand halo and value you get when you build a brand like us, it makes things more valuable.

當你建立像我們這樣的品牌時，你會獲得品牌光環和價值，這會讓事情變得更有價值。

It renders the product more valuable.

它使得產品更有價值。

And I think that all of us tend to buy things based on our trust in that brand, based on what that brand stands for, based on what their values are, and kind of why we buy, why do we trust certain brands

我認為我們所有人購買東西都基於我們對該品牌的信任，基於該品牌所代表的意義，基於其價值觀，以及我們為什麼購買，為什麼信任某些品牌

-- (technical difficulty)

--（技術難度）

Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems.

本記錄中標示「技術難題」的部分錶示音訊問題。

The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

如果有重播的話，將會補充缺少的文字。