RH (RH) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the RH Third Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Allison Malkin of ICR. Allison Malkin, please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 RH 2022 財年第三季度收益電話會議。我現在想把電話轉給 ICR 的 Allison Malkin。艾莉森·馬爾金，請繼續。

Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. Joining me today are Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Preston, Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你。大家下午好。感謝您加入我們的第三季度收益電話會議。今天加入我的是董事長兼首席執行官加里·弗里德曼 (Gary Friedman)；和傑克普雷斯頓，首席財務官。

Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our press release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒您注意我們的法律免責聲明，即我們今天將發表某些符合聯邦證券法含義的前瞻性聲明，包括關於我們業務前景的聲明以及我們媒體引用的其他事項今天發布。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。

Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our press release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Also, during this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in today's financial results press release.

請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及我們今天發布的新聞稿，以更詳細地描述可能影響我們結果的風險因素。另請注意，這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見，我們沒有義務根據新信息或未來事件修改或公開發布對這些前瞻性陳述的任何修改結果.此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會討論非 GAAP 財務措施，這些措施會調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響。您將在今天的財務業績新聞稿中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息以及這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的調節。

A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.rh.com. With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

我們網站 ir.rh.com 的投資者關係部分也提供此次電話會議的現場直播。有了這個，我會把電話轉給加里。

Great. Thank you, Allison, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. I will start with our prepared remarks from our shareholder letter.

偉大的。謝謝你，Allison，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。我將從我們的股東信中準備好的評論開始。

To our people, partners and shareholders: we're pleased to report better-than-expected results for the third quarter with net revenues of $869 million versus $1.006 billion a year ago and up 28% versus third quarter 2019 net revenues of $678 million.

致我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東：我們很高興地報告第三季度的業績好於預期，淨收入為 8.69 億美元，而去年同期為 10.06 億美元，比 2019 年第三季度的 6.78 億美元淨收入增長 28%。

Gross margin contracted 50 basis points in the third quarter primarily due to fixed occupancy deleverage, partially offset by an increase in product margins as we continue to resist promoting the business. As previously mentioned, widespread discounting continues across our industry. And while it's been almost 2 years since we've deployed a promotional e-mail, we've been receiving 2 sale e-mails per day from many home furnishings retailers.

第三季度毛利率收縮 50 個基點，這主要是由於固定入住去槓桿化，部分被產品利潤率的增加所抵消，因為我們繼續抵制推廣業務。如前所述，我們的行業仍在繼續廣泛打折。雖然我們部署促銷電子郵件已經快 2 年了，但我們每天都會收到來自許多家居用品零售商的 2 封促銷電子郵件。

Although the stark contrast in strategy may lead to a short-term risk of market share loss, we believe there are certain long-term risks of brand erosion and model destruction for those who choose the promotional path. It's that discipline and long-term thinking that has enabled us to set new standards for financial performance in the home furnishings industry, and our results now reflect those of luxury brands, as we delivered 20.8% adjusted operating margin in the third quarter, also exceeding our outlook despite the dramatic slowdown in the housing market.

雖然戰略上的鮮明對比可能會導致短期市場份額流失的風險，但我們認為對於選擇促銷路徑的企業而言，存在一定的品牌侵蝕和模式破壞的長期風險。正是這種紀律和長期思維使我們能夠為家居行業的財務業績設定新的標準，我們的業績現在反映了奢侈品牌的業績，因為我們在第三季度實現了 20.8% 的調整後營業利潤率，也超過了儘管房地產市場急劇放緩，但我們的前景。

Our results are inclusive of investments related to the launch of RH Contemporary, the opening of our first RH Guesthouse, the development of RH International and the rollout of our RH In-Your-Home, which led to approximately 200 of the 640 basis points of adjusted SG&A deleverage in the quarter. Additionally, we experienced adjusted SG&A deleverage due to lower revenues versus a year ago.

我們的業績包括與 RH Contemporary 的推出、我們第一家 RH Guesthouse 的開業、RH International 的發展以及我們的 RH In-Your-Home 的推出相關的投資，這導致了 640 個基點中的大約 200 個本季度調整後的 SG&A 去槓桿化。此外，由於收入低於一年前，我們經歷了調整後的 SG&A 去槓桿化。

Our business generated $102 million of adjusted free cash flow in Q3, ending the quarter with $12.5 billion in cash on our balance sheet -- $2.5 billion (sic) [$2.15 billion] in cash on our balance sheet, total net debt of $375 million and trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion.

我們的業務在第三季度產生了 1.02 億美元的調整後自由現金流，本季度末我們的資產負債表上有 125 億美元現金——資產負債表上有 25 億美元（原文如此）[21.5 億美元]現金，淨債務總額為 3.75 億美元，以及過去 12 個月調整後的 EBITDA 為 10 億美元。

Fiscal 2022 outlook. As noted in our previous shareholder letter, we expect our business trends will continue to deteriorate as a result of accelerating weakness in the housing market over the next several quarters and possibly longer due to the Federal Reserve's anticipated monetary policy and the cycling of record COVID-driven sales and backlog reductions. Based on our current trends, we now expect fiscal 2022 revenue growth of negative 3.5% to negative 4.5% versus our prior outlook of negative 3.5% to negative 5.5% and adjusted operating margin in the range of 21.5% to 22% versus our prior outlook of 21% to 21.5%.

2022 財年展望。正如我們在之前的股東信中指出的那樣，由於美聯儲的預期貨幣政策和創紀錄的 COVID-推動銷售和積壓減少。根據我們目前的趨勢，我們現在預計 2022 財年收入增長負 3.5% 至負 4.5%，而我們之前的預期為負 3.5% 至負 5.5%，調整後的營業利潤率在 21.5% 至 22% 的範圍內，而我們之前的預期21% 至 21.5%。

While we expect the next several quarters to pose a short-term challenge as we cycle the extraordinary growth from the COVID-driven spending shift and shed less valuable market share, we believe our long-term investments will enable us to continue driving industry-leading results,

雖然我們預計未來幾個季度會帶來短期挑戰，因為我們會從 COVID 驅動的支出轉變中獲得非凡的增長，並失去價值較低的市場份額，但我們相信我們的長期投資將使我們能夠繼續推動行業領先結果，

RH business vision and ecosystem: the long view. We believe, "There are those with taste and no scale, and those with scale and no taste." And the idea of scaling taste is large and far-reaching. Our goal to position RH as arbiter of taste for the home has proven to be both disruptive and lucrative as we continue our quest to build the most admired brand in the world. Our brand attracts the leading designers, artisans and manufacturers, scaling and rendering their work more valuable across our integrated platform, enabling RH to curate the most compelling collection of luxury home products on the planet.

RH 商業願景和生態系統：長遠的眼光。我們相信，“有品位而無品位，有品位而無品位”。縮放口味的想法是宏大而深遠的。隨著我們繼續努力打造世界上最受推崇的品牌，我們將 RH 定位為家居品味仲裁者的目標已被證明既具有顛覆性又有利可圖。我們的品牌吸引了領先的設計師、工匠和製造商，在我們的集成平台上擴大他們的工作並使他們的工作更有價值，使 RH 能夠策劃全球最引人注目的豪華家居產品系列。

Our efforts to elevate and expand our collection will continue with the introductions of RH Couture, RH Bespoke, RH Color, RH Antiques & Artifacts, RH Atelier, and other new collections scheduled to launch over the next decade. Our plan to open immersive design galleries in every major market will unlock the value of our vast assortment, generating revenues of $5 billion to $6 billion in North America and $20 billion to $25 billion globally.

我們將繼續努力提升和擴大我們的系列，推出 RH Couture、RH Bespoke、RH Color、RH Antiques & Artifacts、RH Atelier 以及計劃在未來十年推出的其他新系列。我們計劃在每個主要市場開設沉浸式設計畫廊，這將釋放我們龐大產品組合的價值，在北美創造 50 億至 60 億美元的收入，在全球創造 200 億至 250 億美元的收入。

Our strategy is to move the brand beyond curating and selling product to conceptualizing and selling spaces by building an ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces that establishes the RH brand as a global thought leader, taste and place maker.

我們的戰略是通過構建產品、場所、服務和空間的生態系統，將品牌從策劃和銷售產品轉移到概念化和銷售空間，將 RH 品牌確立為全球思想領袖、品味和場所製造者。

Our products are elevated and rendered more valuable by our architecturally inspiring galleries, which are further elevated and rendered more valuable by our interior design services and seamlessly integrated hospitality experience. Our hospitality efforts will continue to elevate the RH brand as we extend beyond the 4 walls of our galleries into RH Guesthouse, where our goal is to create a new market for travelers seeking privacy and luxury in the $200 billion North American hotel industry.

我們的產品通過我們的建築靈感畫廊提升並變得更有價值，這些畫廊通過我們的室內設計服務和無縫集成的酒店體驗進一步提升並變得更有價值。我們的招待工作將繼續提升 RH 品牌，因為我們超越了畫廊的 4 堵牆進入 RH Guesthouse，我們的目標是在 2000 億美元的北美酒店業中為尋求隱私和奢華的旅行者創造一個新市場。

Additionally, we are creating bespoke experiences like RH Yountville, an integration of food, wine, art and design in the Napa Valley. RH1 and RH2, our private jets, and RH3, our luxury yacht that is available for charter in the Caribbean and Mediterranean where the wealthy and affluent visit and vacation. These immersive experiences expose new and existing customers to our evolving authority in architecture, interior design and landscape architecture.

此外，我們正在創造定制體驗，例如 RH Yountville，這是納帕谷的美食、美酒、藝術和設計的結合。 RH1和RH2是我們的私人飛機，RH3是我們的豪華遊艇，可以在加勒比海和地中海地區包租，這些地區是富人和富裕人士訪問和度假的地方。這些身臨其境的體驗讓新老客戶接觸到我們在建築、室內設計和景觀建築方面不斷發展的權威。

This leads to our long-term strategy of building the world's first consumer-facing architecture, interior design and landscape architecture services platform inside our galleries, elevating the RH brand and amplifying our core business by adding new revenue streams while disrupting and redefining multiple industries.

這導致了我們的長期戰略，即在我們的畫廊內建立世界上第一個面向消費者的建築、室內設計和景觀建築服務平台，提升 RH 品牌並通過增加新的收入來源擴大我們的核心業務，同時顛覆和重新定義多個行業。

Our strategy comes full circle as we begin to conceptualize and sell spaces, moving beyond the $170 billion home furnishings market into the $1.7 trillion North American housing market with the launch of RH Residences, fully furnished luxury homes, condominiums and apartments with integrated services that deliver taste and time value to discerning time-starved consumers.

隨著我們開始概念化和銷售空間，我們的戰略圓滿結束，隨著 RH Residences 的推出，從 1700 億美元的家居裝飾市場進入 1.7 萬億美元的北美住房市場，配備齊全的豪華住宅、公寓和公寓提供綜合服務，提供對挑剔的時間緊迫的消費者來說，品味和時間價值。

The entirety of our strategy comes to life digitally with The World of RH, an online portal where customers can explore and be inspired by the depth and dimension of our brand.

我們的整個戰略通過 The World of RH 以數字方式實現，這是一個在線門戶網站，客戶可以在其中探索我們品牌的深度和維度並從中獲得靈感。

Our authority as an arbiter of taste will be further amplified when we introduce RH Media, a content platform that will celebrate the most innovative and influential leaders who are shaping the world of architecture and design. Our plan to expand the RH ecosystem globally multiplies the market opportunity to $7 trillion to $10 trillion, one of the largest and most valuable addressed by any brand in the world today. A 1% share of the global market represents a $70 billion to $100 billion opportunity.

當我們推出 RH Media 時，我們作為品味仲裁者的權威將得到進一步放大，RH Media 是一個內容平台，將慶祝塑造建築和設計世界的最具創新性和影響力的領導者。我們計劃在全球範圍內擴展 RH 生態系統，將市場機會增加到 7 萬億至 10 萬億美元，這是當今世界上任何品牌所關注的最大和最有價值的市場之一。全球市場 1% 的份額代表著 700 億至 1000 億美元的機會。

Our ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces inspires customers to dream, design, dine, travel and live in a world thoughtfully curated by RH, creating an emotional connection unlike any other brand in the world.

我們的產品、地點、服務和空間生態系統激發客戶在 RH 精心策劃的世界中夢想、設計、用餐、旅行和生活，創造一種不同於世界上任何其他品牌的情感聯繫。

Taste can be elusive, and we believe no one is better positioned than RH to create an ecosystem that makes taste inclusive. And by doing so, elevating and rendering our way of life more valuable.

味道是難以捉摸的，我們相信沒有人比 RH 更能創造一個讓味道具有包容性的生態系統。通過這樣做，提升並使我們的生活方式更有價值。

Climbing the luxury mountain and building a brand with no peer. Every luxury brand from Chanel to Cartier, Louis Vuitton, to Loro Piana, Harry Winston to Hermes, was born at the top of the luxury mountain. Never before has a brand attempted to make the climb to the top nor do other brands want you to. We do not -- we are not from their neighborhood nor invited to their parties. We do have a deep understanding that our work has to be so extraordinary that it creates a forced reconsideration of who we are and what we are capable of, requiring those at the top of the mountain to tip their hat and respect.

攀登奢侈品之山，打造無可匹敵的品牌。從 Chanel 到 Cartier，從 Louis Vuitton，到 Loro Piana，從 Harry Winston 到 Hermes，每一個奢侈品牌都誕生於奢侈品山頂。從來沒有一個品牌試圖攀登到頂峰，其他品牌也不希望您這樣做。我們不——我們不是來自他們的社區，也不是他們邀請的派對。我們確實深刻地認識到，我們的工作必須如此非凡，以至於它會強制重新考慮我們是誰以及我們的能力，要求那些處於山頂的人向他們致敬並表示尊重。

We also appreciate this climb is not for the faint of heart. And as we continue our ascent, the air gets thin and the odds become slim. We believe the level of work we have introduced this year, inclusive of RH Contemporary; The World of RH; RH San Francisco; RH 1, 2 and 3 as well as the opening of our first RH Guesthouse in New York, begins to demonstrate the imagination, determination, creativity and courage of this team and reflects -- and our relentless pursuit of our dream.

我們也很感激這次攀登不適合膽小的人。隨著我們繼續上升，空氣變得稀薄，成功的可能性也越來越小。我們相信我們今年推出的工作水平，包括 RH Contemporary； RH 世界； RH 舊金山； RH 1、2 和 3 以及我們在紐約的第一家 RH 賓館的開業，開始展示這個團隊的想像力、決心、創造力和勇氣，並反映——以及我們對夢想的不懈追求。

I mentioned at the start of this year that in over 2 decades leading RH, I've never been more excited about our future, and I've never been more uncertain about the present. Although my uncertainty regarding the short term has expanded due to the complete collapse of the luxury housing market, my excitement for our long-term opportunity has grown exponentially as I believe the investments we are making to elevate and expand our product and platform will once again be transformative.

我在今年年初提到，在領導 RH 超過 20 年的時間裡，我對我們的未來從未如此興奮過，而且我對現在也從未如此不確定過。儘管由於豪宅市場的徹底崩潰，我對短期的不確定性有所增加，但我對我們的長期機會的興奮呈指數級增長，因為我相信我們為提升和擴展我們的產品和平台所做的投資將再次具有變革性。

As we look forward to 2023, we will introduce the largest collection of new product in our history across RH Interiors, Modern, Contemporary, Outdoor, Beach & Ski House, Baby & Child, and Teen. To amplify this historic launch, we will once again unveil a revolutionary new gallery design as well as redesign and remodel all of our current galleries.

展望 2023 年，我們將推出我們歷史上最大的新產品系列，涵蓋 RH Interiors、現代、當代、戶外、海灘和滑雪屋、嬰兒和兒童以及青少年。為了擴大這一歷史性的發布，我們將再次推出革命性的新畫廊設計，並重新設計和改造我們現有的所有畫廊。

We'll be introducing RH to the U.K. and the rest of Europe this spring/summer in the most inspiring and unforgettable fashion with the introduction of RH England, The Gallery at the Historic Aynhoe Park, a 16th century 73-acre estate that will feature 3 restaurants: The Orangery, The Conservatory and The Terrace, plus The Aynhoe Architectural Library and The Deer Park, inclusive of the largest herd of white deer in Europe, with a viewing from the Grand Lawn.

今年春夏，我們將以最鼓舞人心和令人難忘的方式將 RH 介紹給英國和歐洲其他國家，其中包括 RH England，位於歷史悠久的 Aynhoe 公園的畫廊，這是一個 16 世紀的 73 英畝莊園，將以3 家餐廳：Orangery、The Conservatory 和 The Terrace，以及 The Aynhoe Architectural Library 和 The Deer Park，其中包括歐洲最大的白鹿群，可從大草坪欣賞美景。

We are also under under construction on RH Paris, the gallery on the Champs-Élysées, scheduled to open in 2024, and RH London, The Gallery in Mayfair scheduled to open in '24-'25. We've also secured locations in Milan, Madrid, Munich, Dusseldorf and Brussels, some of which will also open in '24 and '25.

我們還在建設 RH Paris，位於香榭麗舍大街的畫廊，計劃於 2024 年開放，以及 RH London，位於梅菲爾的畫廊，計劃於 24-25 年開放。我們還在米蘭、馬德里、慕尼黑、杜塞爾多夫和布魯塞爾設立了門店，其中一些門店也將在 24 年和 25 年開業。

RH also announced today the following acquisitions and hires to accelerate the brand's transformation and climb up the luxury mountain. The acquisition of Dmitriy & Co, a to-the-trade custom upholstery atelier and the hiring of Dmitriy founders, Donna and David Feldman, to create RH Couture Upholstery. The acquisition of the business of Jeup, Inc., a to-the-trade custom bespoke furniture workroom and the hiring of Joseph Jeup to create RH Bespoke Furniture.

RH今天還宣布了以下收購和聘用，以加速品牌轉型並攀登奢侈品之山。收購 Dmitriy & Co，一家貿易定制室內裝潢工作室，並聘請 Dmitriy 創始人 Donna 和 David Feldman 創建 RH Couture Upholstery。收購 Jeup, Inc. 的業務，這是一家貿易定製家具工作室，並聘請 Joseph Jeup 創建 RH Bespoke Furniture。

The hiring of Margaret Russell, former Editor and Chief of Architectural Digest and Elle Décor to create RH Media, an editorial content platform that will create the most -- that will celebrate the most innovative and influential people and ideas that are shaping the world of architecture and design.

聘請 Architectural Digest 和 Elle Décor 的前編輯兼負責人 Margaret Russell 創建 RH Media，這是一個編輯內容平台，將創造最多——慶祝塑造建築世界的最具創新性和影響力的人物和想法和設計。

Today's announcement, plus our previous acquisition of Waterworks, firmly plants 4 RH flags at the very top of the luxury mountain, and clearly states our intention of establishing RH as an arbiter of taste and design. These brands and businesses, thoughtfully integrated and amplified on what we believe will be the world's most innovative and dynamic global design platform, will begin to fundamentally change the landscape of the luxury home furnishings market and the to-the-trade design industry.

今天的公告，加上我們之前對 Waterworks 的收購，將 4 面 RH 旗幟牢牢地插在了這座豪華山峰的最頂端，並清楚地表明了我們將 RH 確立為品味和設計仲裁者的意圖。這些品牌和企業在我們認為將成為世界上最具創新性和活力的全球設計平台上經過深思熟慮地整合和擴大，將開始從根本上改變豪華家居市場和貿易設計行業的格局。

As we approach the holidays and New Year, I would like to express our gratitude to all of our people and partners around the world for your contributions and commitment to our cause, and for bringing our vision and values to life. It's not easy striving to become the most inspiring brand in the world and it's surely not for the faint of heart. It takes courage to lead rather than follow. It takes collaboration to build a brand that can break through the clutter in this world. It takes teamwork to reach the top of the mountain no one else has attempted to climb.

在假期和新年臨近之際，我要感謝我們在世界各地的所有員工和合作夥伴，感謝你們為我們的事業做出的貢獻和承諾，以及你們將我們的願景和價值觀變為現實。努力成為世界上最鼓舞人心的品牌絕非易事，而且膽小者也不宜。領導而不是跟隨需要勇氣。需要合作才能打造一個能夠衝破這個世界混亂局面的品牌。登上無人嘗試攀登的山頂需要團隊合作。

20 years ago, we began this journey with a vision of transforming the nearly bankrupt business with a $20 million market cap and a box of Oxydol laundry detergent on the cover of the catalog into the leading luxury home brand in the world. The lessons and learnings, the passion and persistence, the courage required and the scar tissue developed by getting knocked down 10 times and getting up 11 leads to the development of the mental and moral strength that builds character in individuals and forms cultures in organizations. Lessons that can't be learned in a classroom or by managing a business. Lessons that must be learned by building one or by reaching the top of the mountain. Happy Holidays Team RH. Carpe Diem.

20 年前，我們開始了這一旅程，我們的願景是將市值 2000 萬美元、目錄封面上有一盒 Oxydol 洗衣粉的幾乎破產的企業轉變為全球領先的豪華家居品牌。教訓和學習、激情和堅持、所需的勇氣和因被擊倒 10 次和爬起來 11 次而形成的疤痕組織會導致精神和道德力量的發展，從而在個人中建立性格並在組織中形成文化。在課堂上或通過管理企業無法學到的課程。必須通過建造一個或到達山頂來學習的課程。節日快樂團隊 RH。及時行樂。

Ready for questions.

準備提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Simeon Gutman。

I wanted to ask a question about written orders in the third quarter. I don't know if you'll comment, but if you use that run rate as a proxy for the business, does that get worse? And then my question is that we now -- since you beat in the third quarter, we have a slightly steeper slope to the fourth quarter. Is that less backlog? Is it more macro risk? What's changing from third down to fourth?

我想問一個關於第三季度書面訂單的問題。我不知道你是否會發表評論，但如果你使用該運行率作為業務的代理，情況會變得更糟嗎？然後我的問題是我們現在 - 自從你在第三節擊敗以來，我們到第四節的斜率略微陡峭。是不是積壓少了？宏觀風險更大嗎？從第三到第四有什麼變化？

Maybe starting with the second part, Simeon. Look, in the beat in Q3, I think most of that I would characterize as just timing of sales from Q4 to Q3, not necessarily -- some of that is obviously relieving backlog faster than expected, but we had expected to relieve that backlog and continue to do so throughout the year.

也許從第二部分開始，Simeon。看，在第三季度的節拍中，我認為其中大部分我認為只是從第四季度到第三季度的銷售時間，不一定 - 其中一些顯然比預期更快地緩解積壓，但我們曾預計會緩解積壓和全年繼續這樣做。

So look, I think on the year, we're still talking about about $3.6 billion in sales. I don't think our sort of numbers changed materially in terms of that outlook, slightly steeper sure, but it's not -- it's kind of a rounding error in a sense, with all due respect. But I think it's pretty consistent with what we talked about before and simply just Q3 had some pull forward of sales from Q4 and a little bit of faster backlog belief.

所以看，我認為這一年，我們仍在談論大約 36 億美元的銷售額。我認為我們的數字在這種前景方面沒有發生重大變化，可以肯定的是稍微更陡一些，但它不是 - 從某種意義上說，這是一種舍入誤差，恕我直言。但我認為這與我們之前討論的內容非常一致，只是第三季度的銷售額比第四季度有所提高，而且積壓訂單的速度也有所加快。

Okay. And then as a follow-up, maybe more for Gary, knowing that you're going to continue to invest for the future and still be somewhat responsible here for the near term. Question is what -- are you looking at prioritizing things differently? Does anything get sacrificed? Love to hear how you think about this, especially as the year keeps evolving with the Fed still tightening?

好的。然後作為後續行動，加里可能會更多，因為你知道你將繼續為未來投資，並且在短期內仍要對這裡負責。問題是什麼——您是否正在考慮以不同的方式排列事物的優先級？會犧牲什麼嗎？很想听聽您對此有何看法，尤其是在美聯儲仍在收緊政策的情況下，這一年不斷發展？

Yes. How do you define responsible?

是的。你如何定義負責任？

I don't know...

我不知道...

I'm just trying to understand the question. I think I think -- yes, we're communicating what we're doing. We believe everything we do is responsible. So I don't quite know how to answer that.

我只是想理解這個問題。我想我認為——是的，我們正在交流我們正在做的事情。我們相信我們所做的一切都是負責任的。所以我不太清楚如何回答這個問題。

Well, maybe as the second part, which is, is anything getting sacrificed, meaning are some of your longer-term investments putting on pause or no, and that's maybe that's just the right way to look at it.

好吧，也許作為第二部分，也就是任何東西都被犧牲了，這意味著你的一些長期投資是暫停還是不暫停，這也許是正確的看待它的方式。

We're not putting any longer-term investments on pause. I mean, we're playing for the long term. So we're not doing irresponsible things that other people are doing like promoting their business and selling -- sending, I don't know, 30 e-mails to a customer a week with [sales signs, so]. That, I think, might be irresponsible.

我們不會暫停任何長期投資。我的意思是，我們正在為長期比賽而戰。所以我們沒有做其他人正在做的不負責任的事情，比如推廣他們的業務和銷售——我不知道，每周向客戶發送 30 封電子郵件 [銷售標誌，所以]。我認為，這可能是不負責任的。

But I guess it depends on your strategy. If your strategy is to stand for price, then maybe that's an okay strategy. Our strategy is to stand for design and quality and innovation. So it's positioned the company around product, not price. So I think we've been really consistent with our strategy. And as you think about priorities, we reprioritize all the time here. We like to say you've kind of got to get going just to know are we strategically right, are we directionally right. We believe we're strategically and directionally right.

但我想這取決於你的策略。如果您的策略是代表價格，那麼也許這是一個不錯的策略。我們的戰略是代表設計、質量和創新。因此，它圍繞產品而不是價格定位公司。所以我認為我們一直與我們的戰略保持一致。當您考慮優先事項時，我們一直在重新確定優先順序。我們想說你必須開始行動才能知道我們在戰略上是否正確，我們的方向是否正確。我們相信我們在戰略和方向上是正確的。

We believe that -- we make the right long-term investments and build this business for the long term, we'll become one of the few brands in the world that exist over a long-term period of time. So that's unusual in our industry. Most people build a concept and then they roll out 300 or 500 stores. And at the end of 10 years, it's an old concept. So we would like not to get old, and we'd like to continue to reinvent the business.

我們相信——我們進行了正確的長期投資並建立了長期的業務，我們將成為世界上為數不多的長期存在的品牌之一。所以這在我們的行業中是不尋常的。大多數人建立一個概念，然後推出 300 或 500 家商店。在 10 年後，這是一個古老的概念。所以我們不想變老，我們想繼續重塑業務。

And whatever the cycles are, if you look at it for us, if you look back at history, since I joined in 2001, there was a recession at that time, and we elevated the product and kind of transformed the brand. We did the same thing in 2008 and '09, the financial crisis. We went through another cycle again in '15, '16, '17 when we made the move to membership and rearchitected the back end. We also introduced Modern and continue to evolve and make the brand relevant and make sure we're leading the industry. And we think the work that has begun with the introduction of RH Contemporary which will triple in size next year from an assortment midpoint of view, and the introductions we're going to make across the entire portfolio, plus the new gallery design that we're going to unveil, and we'll go through and remodel and redesign all of our current galleries and refresh all of those -- as well as the platform we're building globally for the brand is going to once again transform RH and, man, put us in a position where we create massive strategic separation.

無論周期是什麼，如果你為我們看一下，如果你回顧歷史，自從我 2001 年加入以來，當時經濟不景氣，我們提升了產品並在某種程度上改變了品牌。我們在 2008 年和 09 年的金融危機中做了同樣的事情。我們在 15 年、16 年、17 年再次經歷了另一個週期，當時我們轉向會員制並重新設計了後端。我們還推出了 Modern 並繼續發展，使品牌具有相關性，並確保我們處於行業領先地位。我們認為，從中點角度來看，RH Contemporary 明年的規模將增加三倍，而我們將在整個投資組合中進行的介紹，以及我們的新畫廊設計我們將揭幕，我們將徹底改造和重新設計我們所有當前的畫廊並刷新所有這些——以及我們正在為該品牌在全球範圍內構建的平台將再次改變 RH，伙計，使我們處於創造大規模戰略分離的位置。

So we're kind of comfortable being the others and going the other way. So a lot of people are hunkering down right now and slowing down. We're kind of speeding up. We're more excited, less fearful. I think we saw this coming. This is not a game that's the first time we've seen it. It's just different. But our moves over the last 22 years have been very consistent. I think we're pretty disciplined in the things we do.

所以我們很樂意成為其他人並走另一條路。所以現在很多人都在蹲下來放慢腳步。我們正在加快速度。我們更興奮，更少恐懼。我想我們看到了這一點。這不是我們第一次看到它的遊戲。只是不同而已。但我們在過去 22 年的舉措非常一致。我認為我們在做事時非常自律。

They're unusual. When we were opening 50,000 to 60,000 square foot stores, the rest of the industry was closing stores and shrinking footprints and trying to move all their business online. Now everybody is opening stores. And I don't know, maybe we're just a little bit ahead of everybody else.

他們很不尋常。當我們開設 50,000 到 60,000 平方英尺的商店時，該行業的其他公司正在關閉商店並縮小足跡，並試圖將所有業務轉移到網上。現在大家都在開店。我不知道，也許我們只是比其他人領先一點點。

Our next question comes from the line of Steven Zaccone from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Steven Zaccone。

I wanted to focus on RH Guesthouse. The last time you're on the call, you talked about some of the initial interest. How has that performed the first 3 months that it's been open? What are some of the early learnings for the hotel? And do you see opportunity to open more of these concepts going forward?

我想專注於 RH Guesthouse。上次你在電話中談到了一些最初的興趣。它在開放的前 3 個月表現如何？酒店的一些早期經驗是什麼？您是否看到有機會在未來打開更多這些概念？

Yes. I mean we just opened. We think it's extraordinary. The feedback we're getting from our guests is incredible. The feedback we're getting on the restaurant has been incredible. And so we're just in early learning period. We're not -- I mean, it's the first time we've ever done this. So far, we're really excited. We're going to be opening our champagne and caviar bar soon. We've got our feet underneath us on our new live fire restaurant. And so we couldn't be more excited about it.

是的。我的意思是我們剛剛開業。我們認為這是非同尋常的。我們從客人那裡得到的反饋令人難以置信。我們收到的關於餐廳的反饋令人難以置信。所以我們正處於早期學習階段。我們不是——我的意思是，這是我們第一次這樣做。到目前為止，我們真的很興奮。我們的香檳和魚子醬酒吧即將開業。我們已經在我們新的現場生火餐廳站穩了腳跟。因此，我們對此感到非常興奮。

I mean the feedback from our guests is -- a lot of people are saying, "Gosh, how am I going to be able to get in long term?" Because it's just not that many rooms. But we're excited -- it's going to be learnings here that will help us evolve and make Aspen better and yes, so on and so forth. So this is just very early; big test. It's kind of a small thing in a very big organization that if it becomes a big thing long term, great.

我的意思是，我們客人的反饋是——很多人都在說，“天哪，從長遠來看，我怎樣才能獲得成功？”因為房間不多。但我們很興奮——在這裡學習將幫助我們發展並使 Aspen 變得更好，是的，等等。所以這還為時過早；大考驗。在一個非常大的組織中，這是一件小事，但如果它長期成為一件大事，那就太好了。

But right now, it's really positioned to be something that helps redefine the brand and have people look at us differently. So I think it demonstrates the kind of creativity and passion and attention to detail to do something extraordinary. People from the hospitality industry have come and seen it and toured it. Luxury CEOs that have come and toured it said they haven't seen anything like it anywhere in the world. So we just let it kind of unfold here.

但現在，它真正定位於幫助重新定義品牌並讓人們以不同的方式看待我們。所以我認為它展示了做非凡事情的創造力、熱情和對細節的關注。酒店業的人們已經看過並參觀過它。前來參觀的奢侈品公司首席執行官表示，他們在世界任何地方都沒有見過這樣的東西。所以我們就讓它在這裡展開。

Okay. Great. Very helpful. The other question I had was on gross margin. So it's first quarter that the business has seen a decline, obviously, on occupancy deleverage. But as we look forward is that the likelihood that you probably see gross margin decline again in the fourth quarter? How should we think about the trajectory from here?

好的。偉大的。非常有幫助。我的另一個問題是毛利率。因此，在第一季度，該業務顯然在入住率去槓桿化方面有所下降。但正如我們期待的那樣，您可能會在第四季度看到毛利率再次下降的可能性？我們應該如何考慮從這裡開始的軌跡？

Yes. I think, look, when you look at the sequential just change in our absolute sales -- so when we went from revenue in Q2 of $992 million and gross margin of $52.8 million and going to $869 million in Q3 and 49.7%, as Gary mentioned, a lot of that is occupancy deleverage. And if you think about Q4, there's a further sequential decline, right? Q4 is a smaller quarter for us. So at the midpoint of the guide, we're at $789 million.

是的。我想，看，當你看一下我們絕對銷售額的連續變化時——所以當我們從第二季度的收入 9.92 億美元和毛利率 5280 萬美元到第三季度的 8.69 億美元和 49.7% 時，正如加里提到的那樣，其中很大一部分是入住率去槓桿化。如果你想想第四季度，還會有進一步的連續下降，對吧？第四季度對我們來說是一個較小的季度。因此，在指南的中點，我們的收入為 7.89 億美元。

So if you do -- if you just -- we were not guiding gross margin, but if you do sort of like similar sort of math and transposition the numbers going from Q3 to Q4 as you did from Q2 to Q3, you'd naturally see a gross margin decline built into that because, again, the absolute sales are lower than Q3. So it's just math. I mean, directionally, probably 100 basis points-ish. But again, we're not officially guiding gross margin. It's just a directional number.

因此，如果你這樣做 - 如果你只是 - 我們沒有指導毛利率，但如果你做類似的數學運算並像從 Q2 到 Q3 那樣轉換從 Q3 到 Q4 的數字，你自然會看到毛利率下降，因為絕對銷售額再次低於第三季度。所以這只是數學。我的意思是，從方向上講，可能是 100 個基點左右。但同樣，我們並沒有正式指導毛利率。這只是一個方向性的數字。

I would just say, look, if you look at the housing industry and track the housing industry and if you track the performance of home furnishings retailers against past housing downturns, that would tell you things are going to get worse before they get better here. The housing industry is in a free fall. I think the National Association of Realtors just reported that housing demand was down 37% in October.

我只想說，看，如果你觀察房地產行業並追踪房地產行業，如果你追踪家居零售商在過去的房地產低迷時期的表現，那會告訴你情況會變得更糟，然後才會好轉。房地產業正處於自由落體狀態。我認為全國房地產經紀人協會剛剛報告說，10 月份的住房需求下降了 37%。

We've never -- at least in my lifetime, I've never seen interest rates rise so quickly. I don't think anybody on the phone has either and the impact on the housing market, especially when you look at it versus the housing market that was overinflated and run up by COVID, you're going to have some wild swings here. And it's happening first to the luxury market. If you look at the numbers and if you track the last, yes, 9 months or the reporting on Redfin. I think it started -- the luxury housing market started going down in Q4 last year.

我們從來沒有——至少在我有生之年，我從未見過利率上升得如此之快。我認為電話中的任何人都不會對房地產市場產生影響，尤其是當你將其與因 COVID 過度膨脹和飆升的房地產市場進行比較時，你會看到一些劇烈的波動。它首先發生在奢侈品市場。如果您查看這些數字，如果您跟踪最近 9 個月或 Redfin 上的報告。我認為它開始了——豪宅市場從去年第四季度開始下滑。

And the luxury housing market went up faster and higher, and the luxury housing market is going to go down faster and lower. And that's just an outcome -- and so the question is, there's going to be people that rode it up and they're going to try to stay up and they're going to promote their business, and I think they're going to break their models. And next thing you know, you've got to send out 1,000 e-mails like next year, too, and you're just in it, what I call the downward spiral. Or in the ditch. And so we've kind of expected from the beginning that this COVID lift wasn't anything that we manufactured. And generally, when that happens, those kind of things go up and then they go down. And you try to stay focused on the long term. But we're not going to try to break our model to try to and promote the business in a period. I mean we -- we have people that are in our industry right now that have some pretty good sales.

豪宅市場漲得更快更高，豪宅市場跌得更快更低。這只是一個結果——所以問題是，會有人駕馭它，他們會努力保持下去，他們會促進他們的業務，我認為他們會打破他們的模式。接下來你知道，你也必須像明年一樣發送 1,000 封電子郵件，而你就在其中，我稱之為螺旋式下降。或者在溝裡。因此，我們從一開始就有點期待這種 COVID 升降機不是我們製造的任何東西。通常，當這種情況發生時，這些事情會先漲後跌。而且您嘗試著眼於長期。但我們不會試圖打破我們的模式來嘗試在一段時間內推廣業務。我的意思是我們 - 我們現在的行業中有一些人有一些很好的銷售。

Their whole website is 30% to 40% off. If I put our whole website, 30% to 40% off, we'd changed the sales trend by 50 points. Problem is you're just going to have a much less productive business because doing more volume and lower margins and all that volume also creates costs that are inefficient through a model. I've already run companies like that. So yes, we have a different model. Someone asked me the other day, "Hey, what if you're wrong on your long-term view? What if the market is not $25 billion?"

他們的整個網站都有 30% 到 40% 的折扣。如果我將整個網站降價 30% 到 40%，我們就會將銷售趨勢改變 50 個百分點。問題是你的業務效率會低得多，因為做更多的業務量和更低的利潤率，而所有這些業務量也會產生通過模型效率低下的成本。我已經經營過這樣的公司。所以是的，我們有一個不同的模型。前幾天有人問我，“嘿，如果你的長期觀點錯了怎麼辦？如果市場不是 250 億美元怎麼辦？”

Okay. What if it's not? What if it's half that? What if it's $12.5 billion, and we have 30% EBITDA? I don't know, that directionally looks like some other people like Hermes and people like that, like, I mean, their EBITDA is higher than that. But we've been in a ZIP code where this company would be worth a lot of money. And so whether we become $12 billion or $25 billion, it's not really what's most relevant. It's do we get there? And do we become really the first integrated luxury home brand in the world? And that's just going to be a different path than anybody's taking because no one's ever done it.

好的。如果不是呢？如果是一半呢？如果它是 125 億美元，我們有 30% 的 EBITDA 怎麼辦？我不知道，這在方向上看起來像其他一些人，比如 Hermes 和那些人，我的意思是，他們的 EBITDA 比那更高。但我們一直在一個郵政編碼的地方，這家公司會值很多錢。因此，無論我們成為 120 億美元還是 250 億美元，這並不是最重要的。我們到了嗎？我們是否真的成為全球首個綜合性豪宅品牌？這將是一條不同於任何人所走的道路，因為從來沒有人這樣做過。

So there's going to be some ups and downs here. But the housing market has been in free fall, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. So far, we've been more right than wrong about that because we don't really try to lead our business based on hope. We try to run our business the best we can based on back facts and math and logic and patterns. And so I may not sound really optimistic right now short term -- I'm not. I'm super optimistic long term.

所以這裡會有一些起伏。但房地產市場一直處於自由落體狀態，而且在好轉之前會變得更糟。到目前為止，我們對此的判斷正確多於錯誤，因為我們並沒有真正嘗試基於希望來領導我們的業務。我們努力根據事實、數學、邏輯和模式，盡我們所能地經營我們的業務。因此，短期內我可能聽起來並不樂觀——我不是。從長遠來看，我超級樂觀。

So if you want to play a short-term stock, don't play ours. Do you want to invest for the long term? This is a good place to put your money.

所以如果你想玩短線股票，就不要玩我們的。你想長期投資嗎？這是放錢的好地方。

Duly noted.

適當指出。

Our next question comes from the line of Max Rakhlenko from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 Max Rakhlenko。

Great. So the way that you're seeing your margins play out over the past couple of quarters with upside, both 2Q and 3Q, does that give you more confidence in keeping at least 20% EBIT margins next year if the environment remains challenging? And then just more broadly, how are you thinking about the durability and margin power of the business today given some of the moves that you've made recently?

偉大的。因此，您看到過去幾個季度的利潤率在第二季度和第三季度都有上升趨勢，如果環境仍然充滿挑戰，這是否會讓您更有信心在明年保持至少 20% 的息稅前利潤率？然後更廣泛地說，鑑於您最近採取的一些舉措，您如何看待當今業務的耐用性和利潤率？

It depends on our -- that is always going to depend on your investment and your investment timing. Our underlying core business -- if we wanted to, yes, we can crank it all back and stay at 20%. I'm not sure that's the long-term priority. I don't know how bad this market is going to get. And we don't want to promote the business over the short term to try to create some short-term outcome that's going to be irrelevant 2 quarters after that.

這取決於我們——這始終取決於您的投資和投資時機。我們的基礎核心業務——如果我們願意，是的，我們可以將其全部恢復並保持在 20%。我不確定這是長期的優先事項。我不知道這個市場會變得多糟糕。而且我們不想在短期內推廣業務以試圖創造一些短期結果，而這些結果將在 2 個季度後變得無關緊要。

So there's going to be a lot of decisions to make, it's a really difficult environment for those of us in the home industry. And especially if you're at the higher end, it's more challenging. And for some people, it's not intuitive. But you've got to think about it. We had the greatest migration of people moving from cities to suburbs in the history of America during COVID and to second home markets. The people that did that could afford to do that. The people that moved the most and bought the most homes were the luxury customers that have the capability to do that.

所以會有很多決定要做，這對我們家居行業的人來說是一個非常困難的環境。特別是如果您處於高端，則更具挑戰性。對於某些人來說，這並不直觀。但你必須考慮一下。在 COVID 期間，我們經歷了美國歷史上最大規模的人口從城市遷移到郊區和第二故鄉市場的遷移。這樣做的人有能力這樣做。搬家最多和買房最多的人是有能力做到這一點的奢侈品客戶。

That's why the luxury market went up so high and the housing market -- the luxury housing market benefited the most, and we're going to have a flip side here. So look, we didn't -- all that extra money we made during COVID, we didn't waste it. And on the flip side, if we have a bigger give back, that's okay. If you look at every home furnishings retailer and look at where their operating margins were in '19 when they entered COVID and where they exited in '21, we had the highest operating margins going into COVID amongst all home furnishings retailers, and we exited with even higher margins than anybody else.

這就是為什麼豪宅市場漲得如此之高，而房地產市場——豪宅市場受益最大的原因，我們將在這裡看到另一面。所以看，我們沒有——我們在 COVID 期間賺的所有額外錢，我們都沒有浪費。另一方面，如果我們有更大的回饋，那也沒關係。如果你看看每家家居零售商，看看他們在 19 年進入 COVID 時的營業利潤率和在 21 年退出時的營業利潤率，在所有家居零售商中，我們進入 COVID 的營業利潤率最高，我們退出時甚至比任何人都高的利潤率。

We picked up more margin as we hit more strategic separation. So -- and I believe, as we should, our consumer moved more, our consumer had more urgency. And in some cases, where other people promoted, maybe they got a little bit more top line than us but we just didn't promote. But it's like trying to act like, "Oh, this is a surprise." No, like -- I mean, the Fed pumped so much money into the economy. They created inflation. They held interest rates at such low levels, they made it easy for people to buy homes.

隨著我們實現更多的戰略分離，我們獲得了更多的利潤。所以 - 我相信，正如我們應該的那樣，我們的消費者移動得更多，我們的消費者有更多的緊迫感。在某些情況下，其他人晉升的地方，也許他們的收入比我們高一點，但我們沒有晉升。但這就像試圖表現得像，“哦，這是一個驚喜。”不，就像——我的意思是，美聯儲向經濟注入瞭如此多的資金。他們製造了通貨膨脹。他們將利率保持在如此低的水平，使人們更容易買房。

Now we're on the other side of that. Quantitative easing; interest rates are up. We've got inflation. Who's seen this game before? Anybody on this phone? Not unless you were in the market in 1975 to 1982. This is a whole new ball game that no one's even seen. We're trying to just look at the patterns and look ahead and say, what's the best way to play this, where we come out and we really are positioned for the next 5 to 10 years, not the next 2 to 3 quarters or even the next 5 or 6 quarters. That's not relevant long term. Relevant long term is what's the next 5 to 10 years going to look like?

現在我們在另一邊。量化寬鬆；利率上升。我們有通貨膨脹。誰以前看過這個遊戲？這個電話有人嗎？除非你在 1975 年到 1982 年進入市場。這是一個全新的球類游戲，甚至沒有人見過。我們試圖只看模式並展望未來，然後說，玩這個的最佳方式是什麼，我們在哪裡出來，我們真正為未來 5 到 10 年定位，而不是接下來的 2 到 3 個季度，甚至接下來的 5 或 6 個季度。這與長期無關。相關的長期是未來 5 到 10 年會是什麼樣子？

And what are the decisions we're making today that are going to -- that are going to impact that vector, right, that tilts us slightly more and over the long term makes a big, big difference. So that's how we're focused. We're not managing this business. We're leading this business somewhere bigger and brighter and our journey is going to be a little longer. It's going to take a little longer. So there's going to be people that have patience and there's going to be people that don't have patience. We have patience. You need patience if you really want to be extraordinary in this world.

我們今天要做出的決定是什麼——這將影響那個方向，對，這會讓我們稍微傾斜一點，從長遠來看會產生很大的不同。這就是我們專注的方式。我們不管理這項業務。我們正在將這項業務帶到更大更光明的地方，我們的旅程將會更長一些。這將需要更長的時間。所以會有有耐心的人，也會有沒有耐心的人。我們有耐心。如果你真的想在這個世界上與眾不同，你需要耐心。

Got it. That's really helpful. And then can you just separately speak to the customer reception to Contemporary? How is that going compared to your expectations? And then just any updates on the time line of the rollout to other galleries?

知道了。這真的很有幫助。然後你能單獨和當代的客戶接待談談嗎？與您的預期相比，情況如何？然後只是關於向其他畫廊推出的時間表的任何更新？

Yes. We're very happy with the initial response. We wish we could get more product faster. It's 2 things: A lot of it got impacted by the supply chain backup, which are now just kind of all coming unlocked, but also almost all of the new products is really new product that has never been made at scale before. So one of the things that is going to happen to us during cycles -- this happened to us in '08, '09 when we kind of transformed the assortment in the business. It happened to us in '15, '16 when we moved to Modern, and it's happened to us now. When we make these big moves and they're generally every 7 or 8 years because those are kind of the big cycles in our business. I mean trends can last 10 to 15, but there's generally -- I think every -- every brand needs a major refresh every 7 or 8 years. And so our just happen to be timed to economic downturns. And a lot of that is coincidental, quite frankly. In '15, '16, it wasn't really an economic downturn.

是的。我們對最初的回應非常滿意。我們希望我們能更快地獲得更多產品。有兩件事：很多都受到了供應鏈備份的影響，現在幾乎所有的新產品都被解鎖了，而且幾乎所有的新產品都是以前從未大規模生產過的真正的新產品。因此，在周期中我們會發生的事情之一——這發生在我們 08 年、09 年，當時我們對業務中的分類進行了某種改造。 15 年、16 年我們搬到摩登時，它就發生在我們身上，現在也發生在我們身上。當我們做出這些重大舉措時，它們通常每 7 或 8 年一次，因為這些是我們業務中的大周期。我的意思是趨勢可以持續 10 到 15 年，但通常——我認為每個——每個品牌都需要每 7 或 8 年進行一次重大更新。因此，我們恰好趕上了經濟衰退。坦率地說，其中很多都是巧合。在 15 年、16 年，這並不是真正的經濟衰退。

We created somewhat of a downturn when we moved to membership because that was a kind of a year of transition to do that. But when you bring in this much new product that the world hasn't seen before, that no one's ever scaled -- Travertine furniture or burl wood at scale, you can see pieces out there at antique stores or some retailers have a piece or two, a couple of pieces. They don't have collections with 130 SKUs.

當我們成為會員時，我們造成了某種程度的低迷，因為那是實現這一目標的過渡年。但是，當你引進世界上前所未見的新產品時，從來沒有人按比例縮放過——石灰華家具或粗節木，你可以在古董店看到這些東西，或者一些零售商有一兩件, 幾件。他們沒有包含 130 個 SKU 的系列。

And no one's out there making that stuff at scale. So we are going to constantly, for the rest of time, have to continue to build the supply chain capability that enables us to invent. I mean if you're going to invent something new, and scale something new, it means it hasn't been done before. So it can take longer, it's going to be bumpier. And it's the difference between leading a business, managing a business, invention and innovation versus duplication. So -- and so I think we're going to go through the same thing with Contemporary.

而且沒有人在那里大規模生產這些東西。因此，在剩下的時間裡，我們將不斷地繼續建立供應鏈能力，使我們能夠進行發明。我的意思是，如果你要發明一些新東西，並擴展一些新東西，這意味著以前沒有人做過。所以它可能需要更長的時間，它會更加坎坷。這就是領導企業、管理企業、發明和創新與復制之間的區別。所以 - 所以我認為我們將在 Contemporary 中經歷同樣的事情。

It's taken longer to scale this stuff. I mean we just got back from the quarries in Italy, meeting some of the best families and quarry owners and building partnerships for stone. And so we can make stone furniture at scale and we can have better economics and a better supply chain. We -- I mean, I don't know, 2 weeks ago, we went around the world for 10 days. I think we were in 7 countries or something like that and in the factories and meeting with the factory owners and talking about scaling not only what they're scaling up now, but what's coming next, which is -- I mean, you've just seen the first little introduction of Contemporary. When you see what happens next year, it's extraordinary and revolutionary.

擴展這些東西需要更長的時間。我的意思是我們剛從意大利的採石場回來，會見了一些最好的家庭和採石場老闆，並建立了石材合作夥伴關係。因此，我們可以大規模生產石材家具，我們可以獲得更好的經濟效益和更好的供應鏈。我們——我的意思是，我不知道，兩週前，我們環遊世界 10 天。我想我們在 7 個國家或類似的地方，在工廠裡與工廠老闆會面，不僅討論擴大他們現在正在擴大的規模，還討論接下來會發生什麼，我的意思是，你已經剛看到當代的第一個小介紹。當你看到明年會發生什麼時，它是非同尋常的和革命性的。

I mean I think it's going to be -- we're going to own this entire kind of aesthetic and look and be no different than how we approached '08, '09, when we took kind of the European Belgian kind of aesthetic and we went out there and owned it and did it at scale. And it became kind of the RH Look in the industry. And then we didn't just dabble in Modern. We launched with a 450-page book or something like that -- 545-page book, yes, 545-page book.

我的意思是我認為這將是——我們將擁有整個審美和外觀，並且與我們接近 08 年、09 年的方式沒有什麼不同，當時我們採用了歐洲比利時的審美，我們走出去並擁有它並大規模地做到了。它成為了行業中的 RH Look。然後我們不只是涉足現代。我們推出了一本 450 頁的書或類似的書——545 頁的書，是的，545 頁的書。

And you have bumpiness on getting the supply chain up on both of those, by the way, but we wind up building a $1 billion business at a Modern. I think Contemporary is going to be the most extraordinary thing we do. So you've seen like the first kind of -- the first course of the meal. There's -- call it a 4-course meal. And next year, there'll be 2 more big courses and there'll be another big course in '24. And by '24, I think we'll have it rounded out. But it's going to be -- I think it's going to be the most extraordinary thing we've ever done. So we're really excited about it. I wish we had more goods right now, which we could roll it out to more galleries right now. But so far, every dollar we put it in, there's been really good response, and we're really excited about getting into more galleries.

順便說一句，在這兩個方面建立供應鏈都很坎坷，但我們最終在 Modern 建立了價值 10 億美元的業務。我認為 Contemporary 將成為我們所做的最非凡的事情。所以你已經看到了第一種——這頓飯的第一道菜。有——稱之為 4 道菜的餐點。明年，還會有 2 個大型課程，24 年還會有另一個大型課程。到 24 年，我想我們會完成它。但這將是——我認為這將是我們做過的最非凡的事情。所以我們真的很興奮。我希望我們現在有更多的商品，我們現在可以把它推廣到更多的畫廊。但到目前為止，我們投入的每一美元都得到了很好的反響，我們對進入更多畫廊感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from the line of Curtis Nagle from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Curtis Nagle。

So maybe kind of one longer-term question then a quick model one. So first, Gary, I'd love to talk about the acquisitions and kind of how much they step-up your high-end [trading tier?] Design business, for us, kind of a little less in the know in how big an opportunity from a revenue perspective, you could see. And then just as a follow-up, I just wanted to clarify that comment you kind of loosely made about 20% margin next year if you pull back investments -- maybe I misheard, but just if you could clarify what you were talking about there?

因此，也許是一個長期問題，然後是一個快速模型問題。所以，首先，加里，我想談談收購以及它們在多大程度上提升了你的高端[交易層級？]設計業務，對我們來說，在多大程度上不太了解從收入的角度來看，機會，你可以看到。然後，作為後續行動，我只是想澄清一下，如果你撤回投資，明年你會鬆散地獲得大約 20% 的保證金——也許我聽錯了，但只要你能澄清你在說什麼？

Yes, I think -- yes, as you think about the high-end design and trade, how big is the revenue opportunity. The people at the very top of the mountain own the most homes -- not only do they own the most homes, the homes are more expensive. On average, someone spends about 10% of the home costs on furnishings, decor and art, right? So when they buy nicer homes, they buy nicer furniture. They furnish the whole house. They have multiple houses. And so that's the most lucrative part of the business. It will be the most profitable part of the business. It has the most leverage. You make the most money there.

是的，我認為 - 是的，當你考慮高端設計和貿易時，收入機會有多大。山頂上的人擁有最多的房子——他們不僅擁有最多的房子，而且房子更貴。平均而言，有人會在家具、裝飾和藝術品上花費大約 10% 的家庭成本，對吧？因此，當他們購買更好的房屋時，他們會購買更好的家具。他們佈置了整個房子。他們有多個房子。所以這是業務中最賺錢的部分。這將是業務中最賺錢的部分。它具有最大的影響力。你在那裡賺的錢最多。

So we think it's really important strategically. And we went out and met who we believed had the best reputation and quality and design in upholstery and the same in kind of case goods and furniture. And they're big believers of trying to scale this level of quality and design.

所以我們認為這在戰略上非常重要。我們走出去，遇到了我們認為在室內裝潢方面以及在箱貨和家具方面具有最佳聲譽、質量和設計的公司。他們堅信要擴大這種質量和設計水平。

And so we're really excited about it. It's going to take a while. We've got to get it up and going and test it and see how it goes. We've got to figure out exactly how it's integrated. But in the long term -- yes, I would just say probably today right now, there's a bunch of people in the high-end trade industry that just kind of said, "WTF?". And then like, "now what is going to happen?" And this is a big move for us strategically.

所以我們真的很興奮。這需要一段時間。我們必須啟動並運行並測試它，看看它是如何進行的。我們必須弄清楚它是如何集成的。但從長遠來看——是的，我現在可能只想說，高端貿易行業的一些人只是說，“WTF？”。然後就像，“現在會發生什麼？”這對我們來說是一個戰略性的重大舉措。

But we've got to build capability. There could be other acquisitions to build capability here. And you think about the investments we're making, building a media platform and a content editorial platform that will position the brand as an authority in the industry. I'm not speaking about ourselves, speaking about the people who are really shaping the world of architecture and design. We want to become an authority and a voice in that.

但我們必須建立能力。可能會有其他收購來建立這裡的能力。你想想我們正在進行的投資，建立一個媒體平台和一個內容編輯平台，將品牌定位為行業權威。我不是在談論我們自己，而是在談論真正塑造建築和設計世界的人們。我們想成為這方面的權威和聲音。

So you don't really do that by talking about yourself. You do that by talking about other people. And so we're just going to -- we're taking a different path and going to build a different market. We're going to continue to evolve and change.

所以你並不是真的通過談論你自己來做到這一點。你通過談論其他人來做到這一點。所以我們只是要 - 我們正在走一條不同的道路，並要建立一個不同的市場。我們將繼續發展和改變。

I mean not too different -- if you think about Apple, right? I mean, Apple I mean, they started pretty high up with a $400 phone or something they started at. What's the latest Apple phone, something like $1,100 or something like that, $1,200?

我的意思是沒有太大的不同——如果你想想蘋果，對吧？我的意思是，Apple，我的意思是，他們以 400 美元的手機或其他產品起家。最新的 Apple 手機是什麼，大約 1,100 美元或類似的東西，1,200 美元？

(inaudible)

（聽不清）

Yes. I mean they kind of created a high-end market for phones. But I think the average phone back then was like $69 Motorola Razr or something. So I think we're -- one, we're not just going after a market and how big is the revenue opportunity there. We're also going to create a market because that product at that level of the market is not accessible. You can't go into those showrooms, the goods aren't priced. You're kind of blind and you have to go through -- go through a middle person to even to have access to that quality -- of that quality and that design.

是的。我的意思是他們為手機創造了一個高端市場。但我認為當時的普通手機大約是 69 美元的摩托羅拉 Razr 之類的東西。所以我認為我們 - 一個，我們不僅僅是在追求市場，而且那裡的收入機會有多大。我們還將創建一個市場，因為無法獲得該市場級別的產品。你不能進入那些陳列室，商品沒有定價。你有點盲目，你必須通過——通過中間人才能獲得那種品質——那種品質和那種設計。

So we think it's going to be a big unlock just starting to make that level of quality and design available. We think -- we will grow the market. We think it will be a big, big plus to our brand to get us into those customers' main rooms. I think today, we mostly play in the family room, the second bedrooms. I don't know -- we get that customer's living room, master bedroom, main house, I think it's just going to open up a lot of opportunity.

所以我們認為這將是一個很大的解鎖，只是開始提供這種水平的質量和設計。我們認為 - 我們將擴大市場。我們認為讓我們進入這些客戶的主要房間對我們的品牌來說是一個很大的優勢。我想今天，我們主要在家庭活動室，第二間臥室裡玩耍。我不知道——我們得到了客戶的客廳、主臥室、主屋，我認為這會帶來很多機會。

But a lot to test, a lot to learn, a lot to figure out. We thought about it for a long time. We've worked on this for a long time. Today, we decided to tell you officially that we're doing it -- before everybody's nose, we announced it.

但是要測試很多，要學習很多，要弄清楚很多。我們考慮了很久。我們已經為此工作了很長時間。今天，我們決定正式告訴您我們正在這樣做——當著所有人的面，我們宣布了它。

We're super excited about it. The talent -- it's also -- what I'd say it's a talent acquisition, too. I mean these people are just incredible culturally, creatively, entrepreneurially just incredible, incredible talent. We've all -- in the short time we've been together, we've learned from each other and they've rendered us more valuable. I think we've rendered them more valuable. So it's kind of an upward spiral.

我們對此非常興奮。人才——它也是——我想說的也是人才收購。我的意思是，這些人在文化、創造力和企業家精神方面都令人難以置信，令人難以置信，才華橫溢。我們所有人——在我們在一起的短暫時間裡，我們互相學習，他們讓我們變得更有價值。我認為我們已經使它們更有價值。所以這是一種螺旋式上升。

Yes, for sure, some really impressive resumes there. And then just going to the follow-up question, Gary, just a comment you made about could have 20% margins if you pulled back or something like that, I may have misheard, but I just wanted to clarify that.

是的，當然，那裡有一些非常令人印象深刻的簡歷。然後就是後續問題，加里，如果你撤回或類似的事情，你發表的評論可能有 20% 的利潤率，我可能聽錯了，但我只是想澄清一下。

Yes, the underlying model like the underlying model, I think we've already said it can withstand a 20% down and probably hold the margins around 20%. So that doesn't necessarily mean that's what we're going to do, that we're going to pull back investments when we should be investing. So right now, again, I don't think the idea here -- I don't think it's strategic to go, hey, let's have 20% operating margins in 2023.

是的，底層模型就像底層模型，我想我們已經說過它可以承受 20% 的下跌，並且可能將利潤率保持在 20% 左右。所以這並不一定意味著這就是我們要做的，我們將在應該投資的時候撤回投資。所以現在，我不認為這裡的想法 - 我不認為它是戰略性的，嘿，讓我們在 2023 年有 20% 的營業利潤率。

I don't think a lot of people get up in the morning and go to work and fight for 20% operating margins. They get up and they go fight to do incredible inspiring work that they think is going to create great long-term opportunity. And if we didn't have a whole lot of things to do, if we didn't have a lot of great ideas that we're pursuing right now, yes, I'd say, "Hey, you know what? We don't have anything that's really that big worth investing in. So like let's -- here we go, let's hit 20% operating margin. Let's make that the goal." But we have some incredible stuff what we're working on. The most exciting stuff we've ever worked on, by far. And the kind of stuff that you're so excited you don't -- you can't sleep, you can't even go home, you're just so excited. And we have groups of people that are here -- have been through all kinds of hours, like figuring stuff out because the work is really that special.

我不認為很多人早上起床去上班並爭取 20% 的營業利潤率。他們起床並努力去做他們認為會創造巨大長期機會的令人難以置信的鼓舞人心的工作。如果我們沒有很多事情要做，如果我們沒有很多我們現在正在追求的偉大想法，是的，我會說，“嘿，你知道嗎？我們不沒有任何真正值得投資的大事。所以讓我們——我們開始吧，讓我們達到 20% 的營業利潤率。讓我們把它作為目標。”但是我們正在研究一些令人難以置信的東西。到目前為止，我們做過的最令人興奮的事情。還有那種讓你興奮得不行的事情——你睡不著，你甚至不能回家，你就是太興奮了。我們有一群人在這裡——經歷了各種各樣的時間，比如解決問題，因為這項工作真的很特別。

So we're investing in that work as we think that work will change the vector and will change everything and will create massive strategic separation. So we're not really looking at -- I wouldn't say if you said, "Hey, Gary, is your focus on financial outcome in 2023?" Not really. Our focus is on creating a leapfrog in 2023 and 2024 that when we come out of this cycle, that people look around and go, where did they go? That we've just made such a leapfrog that we're so much farther ahead of everybody else on every level.

因此，我們正在投資於這項工作，因為我們認為工作將改變方向，將改變一切，並將創造大規模的戰略分離。所以我們並沒有真正關注——我不會說如果你說，“嘿，加里，你關注的是 2023 年的財務成果嗎？”並不真地。我們的重點是在 2023 年和 2024 年創造一個跨越式發展，當我們走出這個週期時，人們環顧四周，他們去了哪裡？我們剛剛實現了跨越式發展，以至於我們在各個層面都遠遠領先於其他所有人。

And that will create big returns. And we know how to create big returns. We built the best model in the industry. So we're going to do things that make the model better. But you can't do that by not investing and go, "Okay, we're 20, let's hang on, let's do less." That's the downward spiral. That's the long-term death spiral. And that's not the game we play.

這將創造巨大的回報。我們知道如何創造豐厚的回報。我們建立了業內最好的模型。所以我們將做一些讓模型更好的事情。但是你不能通過不投資來做到這一點，然後說，“好吧，我們 20 歲了，我們堅持下去，讓我們少做點事。”這就是螺旋式下降。這就是長期的死亡螺旋。那不是我們玩的遊戲。

Our next question comes from the line of Jonathan Matuszewski from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Jonathan Matuszewski。

Gary, you mentioned 2023 will mark the largest introduction of new products in company history. So how should we be thinking about your Source Books strategy next year? How are you thinking about mailings relative to maybe this past year given all the new product launching? And should we be planning for elevated Source Books costs? That's my first question.

加里，你提到 2023 年將是公司歷史上最大規模的新產品推出。那麼明年我們應該如何考慮您的原始資料戰略？考慮到所有新產品的發布，您如何看待與過去一年相關的郵件？我們是否應該計劃提高原始資料的成本？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes, you should. And probably a big advertising campaign that I think it's the best work we've ever done. So we're going to shout from the rooftops.

是的你應該。可能還有一個大型廣告活動，我認為這是我們做過的最好的工作。所以我們要在屋頂上大喊大叫。

Got you. And then my follow-up question on supply chain. Can you help us understand the cadence of how supply chain cost tailwinds may flow into gross margin next year? The reason I ask is, I think 70% of your cost of goods sold is sourced from Asia. So how should we be thinking about the timing once we're on the other side of elevated inbound container rates next year? Any color there would be helpful.

明白了然後是我關於供應鏈的後續問題。您能否幫助我們了解明年供應鏈成本順風如何流入毛利率的節奏？我問的原因是，我認為你們 70% 的商品銷售成本來自亞洲。那麼，一旦我們在明年入境集裝箱費率上升的另一邊，我們應該如何考慮時機呢？那裡的任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Jon, so we're kind of getting some of that already. If you think about the ocean-freight contracts, they reset roughly June 1. So that's where we saw the initial burden of those much higher rates, as we've talked about in various calls. But I would say every month since then, we have actualized a number lower than contracted. And the way you achieve that, obviously, you're not always going to contract if the spot rate is lower. So you're going out in the spot market, and those rates have been coming down, there is excess availability, especially along certain Asia Pacific routes.

喬恩，所以我們已經得到了一些。如果你想想海運合同，它們大約在 6 月 1 日重新設置。因此，正如我們在各種電話會議中談到的那樣，這就是我們看到那些高得多的費率的最初負擔的地方。但我會說從那以後每個月，我們實際實現的數字都低於合同規定的數字。顯然，如果即期匯率較低，您實現這一目標的方式並不總是會簽訂合同。所以你要進入現貨市場，而且這些利率一直在下降，供應過剩，尤其是在某些亞太航線上。

And so while we initially saw margin pressure from the higher rates in, I would say, the first 4, 5 months, we're at a point now where we -- like this last month, we're lower than we were for the sort of contracted rates for the prior year. So -- and if you think about our turn, call it, 2, 3x depending on the product category and a lot of our business is special order so there's an immediate impact on that.

因此，雖然我們最初看到較高利率帶來的利潤壓力，但我想說的是，前 4、5 個月，我們現在正處於這樣一個時刻——就像上個月一樣，我們的利潤率低於上個月類似於前一年的合同利率。所以 - 如果你考慮輪到我們，根據產品類別稱它為 2、3 倍，我們的很多業務都是特殊訂單，因此會立即產生影響。

But the part that's stock, I mean, we felt pressure and we're kind of now getting into the -- some of the initial tailwinds and that's reflected in our guidance, obviously. But that we expect, honestly, as we look at it and we think about what's happening with the supply chain, I think there's probably more to come there, more opportunities. And so those are starting, and we'll continue to see that in the next year, we believe.

但是，我的意思是，股票的部分，我們感到壓力，我們現在有點進入 - 一些最初的順風，這顯然反映在我們的指導中。但老實說，我們期望，當我們審視它並思考供應鏈正在發生的事情時，我認為那裡可能會有更多的機會，更多的機會。所以這些正在開始，我們相信明年我們會繼續看到這一點。

That's helpful. Best of luck for the rest of the year.

這很有幫助。祝你在今年餘下的時間裡好運。

Our final question comes from the line of Michael Lasser from UBS.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀的 Michael Lasser。

This is Atul Maheswari on for Michael Lasser. Gary, your stock buybacks slowed quite a bit this quarter. The question is, why did you go slow on buybacks so much? Was it because of the M&A or has anything fundamentally changed about how you view buybacks in the current landscape given you still have over $2 billion of cash in the balance sheet?

我是 Michael Lasser 的 Atul Maheswari。加里，你的股票回購本季度放緩了很多。問題是，為什麼回購如此緩慢？是因為併購，還是因為資產負債表中仍有超過 20 億美元的現金，您對當前情況下回購的看法有什麼根本改變？

Yes. Look, I think that -- the housing market has collapsed. And it went down pretty viciously as interest rates have went up. And so I think Simeon's first question was about being responsible. So we're not going to necessarily change the world through a buyback strategy. And when you're going into kind of a storm that you haven't seen before, you don't want to sail -- or let's say, you're not in a sailboat but you're in a boat that is in -- you don't want to spend all your fuel before you can see the shore and run out and be floating around out there.

是的。看，我認為——房地產市場已經崩潰。隨著利率上升，它急劇下降。所以我認為 Simeon 的第一個問題是關於負責任的。因此，我們不一定會通過回購策略來改變世界。當你遇到以前從未見過的風暴時，你不想航行——或者說，你不是在帆船上，而是在一艘船上—— - 你不想在看到海岸之前就把所有的燃料都花光，然後跑出去漂浮在那裡。

So there's lots of examples of people who went out and spent a lot of money on buybacks and went bankrupt. And Bed Bath & Beyond will probably be the next one that does. They're pretty famous for how much stock they bought back. So I don't know exactly how this housing market is going to play out. I don't know if the housing market is going to -- almost always -- the housing market is in a recession.

所以有很多人出去並在回購上花了很多錢而破產的例子。 Bed Bath & Beyond 可能會是下一個這樣做的。他們以回購多少股票而聞名。所以我不知道這個房地產市場將如何發展。我不知道房地產市場是否會——幾乎總是——房地產市場處於衰退之中。

I mean, if somebody doesn't think that, I'd love to just to do a Zoom and put our numbers up for you. But the luxury housing market has trailed down since last September, right, it is down 8%, down 16%, down 17%, down 16%, down 12% in January, down 13% in February, down 15% in March, down 18% in April, down 18% again in May, down 21% in June, down 24% in July, down 28% in August. And the new numbers will come out for the next quarter, and we'll know how far it goes down. But the odds are it could be down 35%, it could be down 40%. So when we start seeing trends like that, I don't know how it comes all apart.

我的意思是，如果有人不這麼認為，我很樂意做一個 Zoom 並為您提供我們的數字。但是豪宅市場從去年9月份開始就開始下滑了，對吧，跌8%，跌16%，跌17%，跌16%，1月份跌12%，2月份跌13%，3月份跌15%， 4月份下降18%，5月份再次下降18%，6月份下降21%，7月份下降24%，8月份下降28%。新的數字將在下個季度公佈，我們就會知道它會下降多少。但有可能下降 35%，也可能下降 40%。所以當我們開始看到這樣的趨勢時，我不知道它是如何分開的。

Did anyone see 2008 coming? Because the way the market reacted, it didn't seem like it, right? And nobody sees the big implosions. And we're not greedy. Again, we're not going to accomplish our goals here based on a buyback. So we're spending our -- we'd rather just go, look, like where is the world going right now? We've never pumped this many trillions of dollars into the economy. Now interest rates have never raised -- accelerated this fast. Inflation hit numbers that we haven't seen in 40 years.

有人看到 2008 年即將到來嗎？因為市場的反應方式，看起來不像，對吧？沒有人看到大內爆。而且我們並不貪心。同樣，我們不會根據回購來實現我們的目標。所以我們正在花費我們的 - 我們寧願只是去看看，就像世界現在正在走向何方？我們從來沒有向經濟注入這麼多萬億美元。現在利率從未提高過——加速得這麼快。通貨膨脹達到了我們 40 年來從未見過的數字。

It seems like Powell kind of sounds relatively confident when he's up there, but he's the guy that raised interest rates way too slow. He's the guy that didn't start easing. I mean, he should have raised interest rates and not let the housing bubble happen. Housing prices went up from 2020 to 2022 by 45%. That's never happened, except in the '70s -- the 2-year period, housing going up 45%. And so I don't want to sit here and have all kinds of debt and not have any clarity of what it looks like out there.

鮑威爾在高位時似乎聽起來比較自信，但他是那個加息速度太慢的人。他是那個沒有開始放鬆的人。我的意思是，他應該提高利率，而不是讓房地產泡沫發生。房價從 2020 年到 2022 年上漲了 45%。這種情況從未發生過，除了在 70 年代——兩年期間，房價上漲了 45%。所以我不想坐在這裡背負著各種債務，卻對外面的情況一無所知。

So let's let the storm become clear. Let's make sure we can see the shore. Does that mean, oh, maybe the stock runs a little bit, and we buy a little less -- it's not -- we're not here spending all our time trying to figure out how to optimize the buyback. We think our stock is undervalued today. Could it get worse? I think business will get worse before it gets better. Will our stock get worse before it gets better? I don't know. But I haven't been here for 22 years spending all my time thinking about that. We've got much more exciting things to focus on. When we have a better view of the shore, then we'll make the right decisions.

所以讓我們讓風暴變得清晰。讓我們確保我們能看到海岸。這是否意味著，哦，也許股票運行了一點，我們買得少了一點——不是——我們不是在這裡把所有的時間都花在試圖弄清楚如何優化回購。我們認為我們的股票今天被低估了。它會變得更糟嗎？我認為業務在好轉之前會變得更糟。我們的股票會在好轉之前變得更糟嗎？我不知道。但我已經 22 年沒有來過這裡，一直在思考這個問題。我們有更多令人興奮的事情需要關注。當我們對海岸有更好的看法時，我們就會做出正確的決定。

Got it. That's fair, Gary. And as a related follow-up, at this point, how much visibility do you have on some of the planned gallery openings in Europe and even the U.S. over the next 12 to 18 months? And if the macro does turn for the worse, would you look to maybe delay some of the openings until when the macro stabilizes so as to get the most customer attention to some of the great work that you and your team have been doing?

知道了。這很公平，加里。作為相關的後續行動，在這一點上，您對未來 12 到 18 個月內在歐洲甚至美國計劃開設的一些畫廊有多大的了解？如果宏觀確實變得更糟，你是否會考慮推遲一些空缺，直到宏觀穩定下來，以便讓客戶最大程度地關注你和你的團隊一直在做的一些偉大工作？

Yes. It's a little tough to do that. If you're in construction, if you stop, you're just going to make a gallery cost twice as much. And you're still paying rent. And you still have cost. So I mean, I don't think we've ever opened a gallery that doesn't make money. So our new galleries, I anticipate will do well.

是的。這樣做有點困難。如果你正在建設，如果你停下來，你只會讓畫廊的成本翻倍。而且你還在付房租。而且你還有成本。所以我的意思是，我不認為我們開過一家不賺錢的畫廊。所以我們的新畫廊，我預計會做得很好。

I mean, if business goes down 30%, 70% of the people still buy. All our galleries are really productive in the company today. So again, so we open a little slower and then it just means when we come out of this, those galleries have big comps. So we don't try to time things like that. I mean we're not -- if we were a company that had like 5% to 8% operating margin or even 10% or 12% operating margin, and you hit a downturn like this, that could be sustainable and it pulls you down and you might have a cash flow problem, yes, then you're going to make decisions like that.

我的意思是，如果業務下降 30%，仍有 70% 的人購買。今天，我們所有的畫廊在公司中都非常富有成效。再說一遍，所以我們開得慢一點，這就意味著當我們走出這一步時，那些畫廊有很大的競爭力。所以我們不會嘗試為這樣的事情計時。我的意思是我們不是——如果我們是一家擁有 5% 到 8% 營業利潤率甚至 10% 或 12% 營業利潤率的公司，而你遇到了這樣的低迷，那可能是可持續的，它會讓你失望你可能有現金流問題，是的，然後你會做出這樣的決定。

We're not going to have a cash flow problem. So why would we stop building stores that we know are strategic and are going to make a lot of money? So that doesn't make sense to me. Maybe other people have to do it because they have a cash flow problem. We're not going to let ourselves have a cash flow problem. That's why we haven't deployed $2 billion buying our stock back yet, because I don't know -- does Powell and his team know what to do? Are they just tinkering around? They haven't seen this before? And is someone going to make some calls here and we go into a ditch?

我們不會有現金流問題。那麼，為什麼我們要停止建造我們知道具有戰略意義並且會賺很多錢的商店呢？所以這對我來說沒有意義。也許其他人不得不這樣做，因為他們有現金流問題。我們不會讓自己出現現金流問題。這就是為什麼我們還沒有動用 20 億美元回購我們的股票，因為我不知道——鮑威爾和他的團隊知道該怎麼做嗎？他們只是在修修補補嗎？他們以前沒見過這個？是不是有人要在這裡打個電話，然後我們就掉進溝裡了？

It's not going to be a subprime thing, but it could be something else. Nobody saw -- nobody has seen any of these big things coming except for 1 or 2 people. The guy in the big short, he got it. Maybe a few others. But most people don't get it right. And right now, we've never seen more confusion. You read the headlines of the top papers in the world. And I mean who's saying what, who thinks -- I mean the KPMG Consulting Group, they think housing prices are going to drop 20% next year. Goldman Sachs thinks housing prices are going to drop 7.5% next year. The National Association of Realtors think housing is going to go up 1.2% -- prices are going to go up 1.2% next year.

這不會是次貸問題，但可能是其他問題。沒有人看到——除了一兩個人之外，沒有人看到這些大事的發生。穿大短褲的那個人，他明白了。也許還有其他幾個。但大多數人都沒有弄對。而現在，我們從未見過更多的混亂。您閱讀了世界頂級報紙的頭條新聞。我的意思是誰在說什麼，誰在想——我的意思是畢馬威諮詢集團，他們認為明年房價將下降 20%。高盛認為明年房價將下跌 7.5%。全國房地產經紀人協會認為房價將上漲 1.2%——明年價格將上漲 1.2%。

Generally, people speak from a place of kind of self-consideration. Like if you're a realtor, you need to sell houses to make money. So you're going to have the rosiest outlook. If you're a banker, you don't want transactions to stop. You don't want the banking industry to slow down, right? And if you're a consultant, you don't mind telling everybody the bad news because people hire you when they're all screwed up and panicky. So maybe they're the ones that going to tell you the worst case, I don't know. But -- that's a big spread, don't you think? Housing prices are going to go up 20% -- I mean, go down 20% or they're going to go up 1%. That sounds like everybody is on the same page. So there's just a lot of uncertainty right now.

通常，人們從一種自我考慮的角度說話。就像如果你是房地產經紀人，你需要賣房子來賺錢。所以你將擁有最樂觀的前景。如果您是銀行家，您不希望交易停止。你不希望銀行業放緩，對吧？如果你是一名顧問，你不介意把壞消息告訴每個人，因為人們在搞砸和恐慌時會僱用你。所以也許他們會告訴你最壞的情況，我不知道。但是——這是一個很大的傳播，你不覺得嗎？房價將上漲 20%——我的意思是，下跌 20% 或者上漲 1%。聽起來每個人都在同一頁面上。所以現在只有很多不確定性。

But one thing I'm certain of: the housing market is collapsing at a level I haven't seen since 2008. I haven't seen this kind of drop since 2008. So go look at how far housing dropped in 2008 and 2009 because these numbers look just like that.

但有一件事我可以肯定：房地產市場正在崩潰，這是我自 2008 年以來從未見過的水平。自 2008 年以來我從未見過這種下降。所以去看看 2008 年和 2009 年住房市場下跌了多少，因為這些數字看起來就是這樣。

That sounds ominous.

這聽起來很不祥。

And we do have one final question from Seth Basham from Wedbush Securities.

我們確實有來自 Wedbush Securities 的 Seth Basham 提出的最後一個問題。

First, Gary, I'm sorry, I jumped on late. But if you already addressed this. But we noticed from our work that you're partially rolling back some price increases on select products. We've also seen a higher level of clearance on your website. Can you characterize that relative to your pricing and brand strategy?

首先，加里，對不起，我來晚了。但如果你已經解決了這個問題。但我們從我們的工作中註意到，您正在部分回滾部分產品的價格上漲。我們還在您的網站上看到了更高級別的許可。您能否將其描述為與您的定價和品牌策略相關的特徵？

Sure, sure. Well, the -- as Jack mentioned, freight costs are coming down. Raw material costs are coming down. Pricing is coming down. And we're not going to not want to have a good value in the marketplace. So of course we'll adjust pricing as our pricing comes down. And sales are down. So did we plan for sales to be down this far? No. Did we think that the housing market was going to collapse this fast? No. Did we think interest rates were going to go up this fast? No.

一定一定。好吧，正如傑克所說，運費正在下降。原材料成本正在下降。定價正在下降。我們不會不想在市場上有很好的價值。所以我們當然會在價格下降時調整價格。而且銷量下降了。那麼，我們是否計劃讓銷售額下降這麼遠？不。我們是否認為房地產市場會這麼快崩潰？不，我們認為利率會上升得這麼快嗎？不。

So do we have more inventory than we'd like? Yes. Should we be accelerating the things that we don't want to have in our assortment long term that we're clearing out because we have new product coming in? Of course. Will we have more than normal? Of course, we will. That shouldn't surprise anyone. It's the retail business. You have new products coming in, you've got to get rid of old products. So you mark it down. If your sales are down, you've got more old products. So you're going to mark it down a little faster. Otherwise, your DC can't process it. So yes, that's all that's happening. And if prices go up, raw materials go up, shipping goes up like everything that happened in COVID, you're going to take your pricing up. The customer -- consumer is going to understand it. Well now, but they're also going to understand when things come down.

那麼我們的庫存是否比我們想要的多？是的。從長遠來看，我們是否應該加速清理我們不想擁有的東西，因為我們有新產品進來了？當然。我們會比平時多嗎？當然，我們會的。這不應該讓任何人感到驚訝。這是零售業務。你有新產品進來，你必須擺脫舊產品。所以你把它記下來。如果你的銷售額下降，你有更多的舊產品。所以你要更快地把它記下來。否則，您的 DC 無法處理它。所以是的，這就是正在發生的一切。如果價格上漲，原材料上漲，運費上漲，就像 COVID 中發生的一切一樣，你就會提高價格。客戶——消費者將會理解它。現在好了，但他們也會明白什麼時候事情會好轉。

And so our whole business, you look at everything through a lens of design, quality and value, in that order. If the design is not beautiful and inspiring, nobody buys it. If the design is great, then they get closer to the product and they assess the quality. If they love the design and they believe it's really good quality, it's great quality, then they look at the price. And then the consumer makes the decision for that design and that quality, is this a good value and do I buy it?

所以我們的整個業務，你通過設計、質量和價值的鏡頭來看待一切，按照這個順序。如果設計不美觀、不鼓舞人心，就沒有人會買賬。如果設計很棒，那麼他們就會更接近產品並評估質量。如果他們喜歡這個設計並且他們相信它的質量真的很好，質量很好，那麼他們就會看價格。然後消費者會為該設計和質量做出決定，這是否物有所值，我是否購買？

We try to guess where that best point is. Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. So we adjust pricing all the time. We're never going to price everything exactly [right] and we're never going to buy it exactly right.

我們試圖猜測最佳點在哪裡。有時我們是對的，有時我們是錯的。所以我們一直在調整定價。我們永遠不會為所有東西定價 [正確]，我們也永遠不會購買完全正確的東西。

As it relates to your clearance strategy, Gary, is the primary channel of clearance through your full-price stores and website as opposed to your outlets?

關於您的清倉策略，Gary，是通過您的全價商店和網站而不是您的直銷店進行清倉的主要渠道嗎？

Yes. Yes. You want -- like we've got way more galleries with way more people coming into them, right? And so -- and we have a website, ou full-price website is where we have the most traffic. So you don't want to move product out of that channel right away. Like we have -- yes, we would -- you just back up inventory really fast.

是的。是的。你想要——就像我們有更多的畫廊，有更多的人進入它們，對吧？所以——我們有一個網站，全價網站是我們流量最多的地方。因此，您不想立即將產品移出該渠道。就像我們一樣 - 是的，我們會 - 你只是非常快速地備份庫存。

I mean this isn't the luxury apparel business where they just throw it in a dumpster and burn it. This is furniture. We're never going to run it exactly like the luxury apparel people or the luxury jewelry people and stuff like that. I mean, our business, we can't throw away the product, and it's just got a different thing. We're going to have a different kind of outlet clearance model all the time.

我的意思是，這不是奢侈服裝行業，他們只是把它扔進垃圾箱然後燒掉。這是家具。我們永遠不會像奢侈服裝人或奢侈珠寶人那樣來經營它。我的意思是，我們的業務，我們不能扔掉產品，它只是有不同的東西。我們將一直採用不同類型的出口清關模式。

Something comes back as a return, you can't take it back at the store, can't put it back on the shelf. I mean, once it goes on a truck and it's out of the box, you've got to take it somewhere, so you have outlets because if a customer doesn't like it or it's got a tiny scratch or -- that you can't fix or something is wrong, you've got to figure out what to do with it.

東西回來就是退貨，你不能在商店把它拿回來，不能把它放回貨架上。我的意思是，一旦它裝上卡車並且開箱即用，你就必須把它帶到某個地方，所以你有銷售點，因為如果顧客不喜歡它或者它有一個小划痕，或者 - 你可以'修復或出現問題，您必須弄清楚如何處理它。

But when you have plans to say, okay, here's the collections, there's things that are going to be going out that you're going to be marking down and your demand falls pretty rapidly, that's going to change your pricing strategy. It has to, because you've got inventory that's on order that's coming in.

但是當你有計劃說，好吧，這是系列，有些東西要出去，你會降價，你的需求會很快下降，這將改變你的定價策略。必須這樣做，因為您有正在訂購的庫存。

Bulky goods like ours, you better keep that inventory moving because Fernando is sitting here, if we don't move the inventory, he will figure out -- he'll have to figure out where to put it, and we might not like what he does with it.

像我們這樣的大件貨物，你最好保持庫存流動，因為費爾南多坐在這裡，如果我們不移動庫存，他會想辦法——他必須想辦法把它放在哪裡，我們可能不喜歡什麼他用它做。

Okay. Lastly, if I may, a point of clarification. Did you say earlier that you could do 20% operating margins next year if you pulled back on a lot of investments? So with this tough macro environment, should we think of 20% as sort of the high-water mark for next year?

好的。最後，如果可以的話，澄清一點。您之前是否說過，如果您撤回大量投資，明年的營業利潤率可以達到 20%？因此，在這種艱難的宏觀環境下，我們是否應該將 20% 視為明年的高水位線？

Well, I think it all depends where demand goes, what happens to the housing market. What's going to happen with interest rates, inflation and the housing market? And are we in a -- how long of a downturn are we in? Does this downturn get worse? If housing falls off at a greater rate, just demand is going to go down.

好吧，我認為這完全取決於需求的去向，以及房地產市場會發生什麼。利率、通貨膨脹和房地產市場會發生什麼變化？我們是否處於 - 我們處於低迷狀態多長時間？這次經濟衰退會變得更糟嗎？如果住房以更快的速度下跌，那麼需求就會下降。

Our business is tied to the housing market because if you look at our business, it's tied to events: SOmeone bought a new home, they're remodeling a home or they are redecorating their home. The core of our business is not like the person that goes, "Yes, I need some new bedding." That's -- our business is tied to those 3 things. So if people are not buying homes, if people are not remodeling a home -- and by the way, when people remodel a home, they're generally buying a home to live in -- our customers -- while they're remodeling. So that's actually kind of good for our business. But if the real estate activity stops, it hurts our business. So if you have a 20% downfall in the housing market, 2 out of 10 people didn't buy a home. If it's 30%, 3 out of 10 people didn't buy a home. And then -- or didn't move or are not remodeling it. It's activities -- I mean what is it, mortgage applications were down 47% in October.

我們的業務與房地產市場相關，因為如果您查看我們的業務，就會發現它與事件相關：有人買了新房，他們正在改建或重新裝修他們的家。我們業務的核心不像那些說“是的，我需要一些新床上用品”的人。那就是——我們的業務與這三件事息息相關。因此，如果人們不買房，如果人們不改造房屋——順便說一下，當人們改造房屋時，他們通常是在購買房屋居住——我們的客戶——而他們正在改造。所以這實際上對我們的業務有好處。但如果房地產活動停止，就會損害我們的業務。因此，如果房地產市場下跌 20%，則十分之二的人沒有買房。如果是 30%，10 個人中有 3 個沒有買房。然後 - 或者沒有移動或沒有重塑它。它的活動——我的意思是它是什麼，10 月份抵押貸款申請下降了 47%。

That's just the number. I'm not a doomsday guy. That's just the number. And we look at these numbers. So mortgage applications down 47% isn't good for the outlook of our industry. It's the highest print yet. So next year, it's like 1.5 months away. That slowdown like that -- they don't buy a house and they buy the furniture the next day. So there's a whole tail to all this stuff.

那隻是數字。我不是末日論者。那隻是數字。我們看看這些數字。因此，抵押貸款申請下降 47% 對我們行業的前景不利。這是迄今為止最高的印刷品。所以明年，還有 1.5 個月的時間。那樣的放緩——他們不買房子，第二天就買家具。所以所有這些東西都有一個完整的尾巴。

And so how it cycles through, I just don't know where it's going yet. I don't think anybody does. I think anybody tells you they think know where the housing market is going -- I don't know who's been right yet. This is not -- by the way, for the housing point of view, there is no soft landing. We're way beyond the soft landing. This is a really hard landing or a crash landing, and it's looking more like a crash landing in the housing market. It's looking like '08, '09. And if that sounds like whatever -- [Atul] said like I'm a pessimist or whatever.

所以它是如何循環的，我只是不知道它會去哪裡。我認為沒有人這樣做。我想有人告訴你他們認為知道房地產市場的走向——我不知道誰是對的。這不是——順便說一句，從住房的角度來看，沒有軟著陸。我們遠遠超出了軟著陸。這是一次真正的硬著陸或迫降，而且看起來更像是房地產市場的迫降。它看起來像'08，'09。如果這聽起來像是什麼——[Atul] 說得好像我是一個悲觀主義者之類的。

Ominous.

不祥的。

Yes, ominous or whatever. Okay. Okay. Maybe I'm a truth teller, and I'm not a BSer. But sometimes the truth isn't what everybody wants to hear. But it's just the truth, the facts. You guys -- yes. So.

是的，不祥之類的。好的。好的。也許我是一個說真話的人，而不是一個 BSer。但有時真相並不是每個人都想听到的。但這只是事實，事實。你們——是的。所以。

That does conclude today's questions. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Friedman for closing remarks.

這確實總結了今天的問題。我現在想將電話轉給加里·弗里德曼 (Gary Friedman)，請其作結束語。

Great. Thank you, everyone. Well, as we said in our letter, we really want to thank all the people and partners, all the world that contribute to our cause, our shareholders for believing in us. And we just wish everybody, happy, happy holiday, and we look forward to speaking with you in the New Year. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝大家。好吧，正如我們在信中所說，我們真的要感謝所有為我們的事業做出貢獻的人和合作夥伴，全世界，感謝我們的股東對我們的信任。我們只希望大家節日快樂，我們期待在新的一年裡與您交談。謝謝你。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。