RH (RH) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for holding, and welcome everyone to the RH Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Thank you.

    感謝大家的支持,歡迎大家參加 RH 第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)謝謝。

  • I will now turn the call over to Allison Malkin with ICR. Ms. Malkin, please go ahead.

    我現在將通過 ICR 將電話轉給 Allison Malkin。馬爾金女士,請繼續。

  • Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD

    Allison C. Malkin - Senior MD

  • Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me today are Gary Friedman, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jack Preston, Chief Financial Officer.

    謝謝。大家下午好。感謝您加入我們的第四季度和 2022 財年收益電話會議。今天加入我的是董事長兼首席執行官加里·弗里德曼 (Gary Friedman);和傑克普雷斯頓,首席財務官。

  • Before we start, I would like to remind you of our legal disclaimer, that we will make certain statements today that are forward-looking within the meaning of the federal securities laws, including statements about the outlook of our business and other matters referenced in our press release issued today. These forward-looking statements involve a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially.

    在我們開始之前,我想提醒您注意我們的法律免責聲明,即我們今天將做出某些符合聯邦證券法含義的前瞻性聲明,包括關於我們業務前景的聲明以及我們的聲明中提及的其他事項今天發布的新聞稿。這些前瞻性陳述涉及許多可能導致實際結果大不相同的風險和不確定性。

  • Please refer to our SEC filings as well as our press release issued today for a more detailed description of the risk factors that may affect our results. Please also note that these forward-looking statements reflect our opinion only as of the date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly release the results of any revision to these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events.

    請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件以及我們今天發布的新聞稿,以更詳細地描述可能影響我們業績的風險因素。另請注意,這些前瞻性陳述僅反映我們截至本次電話會議之日的意見,我們沒有義務根據新信息或未來事件修改或公開發布對這些前瞻性陳述的任何修改結果.

  • Also, during this call, we may discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which adjust our GAAP results to eliminate the impact of certain items. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP to GAAP measures in today's financial results press release. A live broadcast of this call is also available on the Investor Relations section of our website at ir.rh.com.

    此外,在這次電話會議中,我們可能會討論非 GAAP 財務措施,這些措施會調整我們的 GAAP 結果以消除某些項目的影響。您將在今天的財務業績新聞稿中找到有關這些非 GAAP 財務措施的更多信息以及這些非 GAAP 與 GAAP 措施的調節。我們網站 ir.rh.com 的投資者關係部分也提供此次電話會議的現場直播。

  • With that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

    有了這個,我會把電話轉給加里。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, and welcome, everyone. We'll start with the reading of our letter to our people, partners and shareholders and then open up the call for questions. To our people, partners and shareholders, fiscal 2022 was another outstanding year for the RH brand. While revenues of $3.59 billion were below the pandemic peak of 2021, we finished the year with an adjusted operating margin of 22% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 25.9%, the most profitable business model in our industry.

    謝謝大家,歡迎大家。我們將從宣讀給我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東的信開始,然後開始提問。對於我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東來說,2022 財年是 RH 品牌又一個傑出的一年。雖然 35.9 億美元的收入低於 2021 年的大流行高峰,但我們以 22% 的調整後營業利潤率和 25.9% 的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率結束了這一年,這是我們行業中最賺錢的商業模式。

  • It's clear that the stay-at-home restrictions of the pandemic created an exponential lift for home-related businesses, and it's also clear the lift, like the pandemic, was a temporal isolated event versus something structural or systemic. We believe the questions are, what if anything has permanently changed? What brands and businesses are positioned to win over the next decade? And what data is important to determine who those winners will be?

    很明顯,大流行病的居家限制為與家庭相關的企業帶來了指數級的提升,而且與大流行病一樣,這種提升也很明顯是暫時的孤立事件,而不是結構性或系統性的事件。我們認為問題是,如果任何事情已經永久改變怎麼辦?哪些品牌和企業有望在未來十年贏得勝利?哪些數據對確定誰將成為贏家很重要?

  • Those are not easy questions to answer in light of the massive backlog relief and a return to discounting at most home furnishings retailers, which distort short-term results. Additionally, inflation that was thought to be transitory is now deemed persistent by the Federal Reserve, resulting in a record rise in interest rates triggering a dramatic decline of the housing market, with luxury home sales down 45% in the most recent quarter versus a year ago. Add to that an underperforming stock market and a banking crisis no one saw coming and the data points to business in our sector likely getting worse before it gets better.

    鑑於大量積壓訂單的減少和大多數家居用品零售商恢復打折,這些問題都不容易回答,這會扭曲短期結果。此外,被認為是暫時的通貨膨脹現在被美聯儲認為是持續性的,導致利率創紀錄上升,引發房地產市場急劇下滑,最近一個季度的豪宅銷售量同比下降 45%前。再加上表現不佳的股市和無人預見的銀行業危機,數據表明我們行業的業務在好轉之前可能會變得更糟。

  • It's times like these that businesses tend to move in herds, pursuing broadly adopted short-term plans that lead to mostly similar outcomes. It's also times like these that present opportunities to pursue long-term strategies that can result in strategic separation and significant value creation for those teams willing to take road less traveled and pursue their own unique path. That unique path for RH is our climb up the luxury mountain and our long-term strategies of product elevation, platform expansion and cash generation.

    正是在這樣的時代,企業傾向於成群結隊,追求廣泛採用的短期計劃,這些計劃會導致大部分相似的結果。也正是在這樣的時刻,提供了追求長期戰略的機會,這些戰略可以為那些願意走少有人走的路並追求自己獨特道路的團隊帶來戰略分離和重大價值創造。 RH 的這條獨特道路是我們攀登奢侈品山峰以及我們產品升級、平台擴展和現金產生的長期戰略。

  • Product elevation. Our strategy to elevate the design and quality of our products is central to our strategy of positioning RH as the first fully integrated luxury home brand in the world. It is also the most difficult part of our climb as it requires attracting higher value, more discerning customers by offering higher quality, more desirable designs. While it's a climb that becomes more difficult as we reach new heights, it's also one we've navigated successfully over the past 22 years, so don't expect us to waiver from our vision anytime soon.

    產品提升。我們提升產品設計和質量的戰略是我們將 RH 定位為世界上第一個完全集成的豪華家居品牌的戰略的核心。這也是我們攀登過程中最困難的部分,因為它需要通過提供更高質量、更理想的設計來吸引更高價值、更挑剔的客戶。雖然隨著我們達到新的高度,攀登變得更加困難,但我們在過去 22 年中也成功駕馭了它,所以不要指望我們會很快放棄我們的願景。

  • This spring/summer, we will be unveiling the most prolific selection of new products in our history. With over 70 new furniture and upholstery collections across Outdoor, Interiors, Contemporary, Modern, Baby & Child and Teen, it represents a massive leapfrog for our brand. These new collections reflect a level of design and quality inaccessible in our current markets and a value proposition that will be disruptive across multiple markets. We also believe the new collections will generate a level of excitement and serve as an inflection point for our business in the second half of the year.

    今年春夏,我們將推出我們歷史上最多產的新產品。擁有 70 多個新家具和室內裝潢系列,涵蓋戶外、室內、現代、現代、嬰兒和兒童以及青少年,它代表了我們品牌的巨大飛躍。這些新系列反映了我們當前市場無法企及的設計和質量水平,以及將顛覆多個市場的價值主張。我們還相信,新系列將帶來一定程度的興奮,並成為我們下半年業務的轉折點。

  • The new pieces will be gracing the pages of a new source book design with the objective of creating a cohesive collection of titles reinforcing our design and quality leadership. The first of those titles, RH Outdoor, began arriving in homes last week with our trademarked belief inscribed across the cover. "There Are Pieces That Furnish A Home And Those That Define It."

    新作品將裝點新源書籍設計的頁面,目的是創建一個有凝聚力的標題集合,加強我們的設計和質量領導地位。其中第一個標題,RH Outdoor,上週開始進入家庭,封面上刻有我們的商標信念。 “有裝飾傢的物件,也有定義家的物件。”

  • Platform expansion. Our plan to expand the RH brand globally, address new markets locally and transform our North American galleries represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity. This summer, we will be introducing RH to the U.K. in a dramatic and unforgettable fashion with the opening of RH England, The Gallery at the Historic Aynho Park, a 73-acre, 17th century estate that will be a celebration of history, design, food and wine.

    平台擴展。我們計劃在全球範圍內擴展 RH 品牌、開拓本地新市場並改造我們的北美畫廊,這是一個價值數十億美元的機會。今年夏天,我們將以戲劇性和令人難忘的方式將 RH 介紹給英國,RH England 畫廊位於歷史悠久的 Aynho 公園,這是一座佔地 73 英畝的 17 世紀莊園,將慶祝歷史、設計、食物和酒。

  • RH England includes 3 full service restaurants, The Orangey, The Conservatory and The Loggia, plus 3 secondary hospitality experiences, The Wine Lounge, The Tea Salon and The Juicery. Guests will appreciate views of Europe's largest herd of white deer gracing on the vast and scenic property from the 46 windows adorning the south facing main building and can enjoy a glass of wine or afternoon tea service while sitting around monolithic stone fire pits on the Grand Viewing Terrace.

    RH England 包括 3 家提供全方位服務的餐廳,即 The Orangey、The Conservatory 和 The Loggia,以及 3 家次要酒店體驗,即 The Wine Lounge、The Tea Salon 和 The Juicery。客人可以從裝飾著朝南主樓的 46 個窗戶欣賞到歐洲最大的白鹿群在廣闊而風景優美的建築上嬉戲的景色,並且可以坐在 Grand Viewing 的巨石火坑周圍享用一杯葡萄酒或下午茶服務陽台。

  • One of the most unique attractions at RH England is The Aynho Architecture & Design Library, featuring rare books from the foundational masters of architecture, Palladio, Scamozzi and Alberti. The centerpiece of the collection is one of the first printings of De architectura, The Ten Books of (sic) [on] Architecture by Vitruvius, whose work from the first century BC inspired Leonardo da Vinci's drawing of the Vitruvian Man 1,500 years after Vitruvius sketched the original.

    RH England 最獨特的景點之一是 The Aynho Architecture & Design Library,裡面藏有建築大師 Palladio、Scamozzi 和 Alberti 的珍本書籍。該系列的核心是 De architectura 的第一批印刷品之一,即維特魯威 (sic) [on] Architecture 的十本書,其公元前一世紀的作品啟發了列奧納多達芬奇 (Leonardo da Vinci) 在維特魯威 (Vitruvius) 繪製素描 1500 年後繪製了維特魯威人 (Vitruvian Man)原本的。

  • The principles at the core of Vitruvius' philosophy have also inspired the design ethos at RH, which is reflected in our galleries, interiors and gardens. The gallery will also include The Sir John Soane Exhibit, honoring one of England's greatest architects, in partnership with the Soane Museum in London. The exhibit will touch on his life story and detail some of his most famous works, including Aynho Park. We believe RH England, The Gallery at the Historic Aynho Park, also represents RH's greatest work and will act as a symbol of our values and beliefs as we embark on our expansion across Europe.

    維特魯威哲學的核心原則也激發了 RH 的設計精神,這反映在我們的畫廊、室內設計和花園中。該畫廊還將與倫敦的索恩博物館合作舉辦約翰·索恩爵士展覽,以紀念英格蘭最偉大的建築師之一。該展覽將講述他的人生故事,並詳細介紹他最著名的一些作品,包括 Aynho Park。我們相信 RH England,位於歷史悠久的 Aynho Park 的畫廊,也代表了 RH 最偉大的作品,並且在我們開始在歐洲擴張時將成為我們價值觀和信念的象徵。

  • Our global expansion also includes the opening -- includes openings in Brussels, Dusseldorf, Munich and Madrid as well as an interior design studio in London over the next 18 months, followed by Paris, London, Milan and Sydney in 2024 and '25.

    我們的全球擴張還包括開業——包括在未來 18 個月內在布魯塞爾、杜塞爾多夫、慕尼黑和馬德里開設一家室內設計工作室,隨後在 2024 年和 25 年在巴黎、倫敦、米蘭和悉尼開設一家室內設計工作室。

  • Regarding our North American transformation, we will be introducing a new gallery design this year in Palo Alto and Cleveland, plus opening new galleries at the Historic Firehouse in Montecito, and The Linden House, a 178-acre estate on a private lake in Indianapolis. Additionally, we have 12 North American galleries in the development pipeline scheduled to open over the next several years.

    關於我們的北美轉型,我們今年將在帕洛阿爾托和克利夫蘭推出新的畫廊設計,並在蒙特西託的歷史消防站和印第安納波利斯私人湖上佔地 178 英畝的林登莊園開設新畫廊。此外,我們還有 12 家北美畫廊正在籌備中,計劃在未來幾年內開放。

  • We also believe there's an opportunity to address new markets locally by opening design studios in neighborhoods, towns and small cities where the wealthy and affluent live, visit in vacation. We have several existing locations that validate this strategy in East Hampton, Yountville, Los Gatos, Pasadena and our former San Francisco gallery in the Design District, where we have generated annual revenues in the range of $5 million to $20 million in 2,000 to 5,000 square feet. We have identified over 40 locations that are incremental to our previous plans in North America and believe the results of these design studios will provide data that could lead to opening larger galleries in those markets.

    我們還相信,有機會通過在富人和富人居住的社區、城鎮和小城市開設設計工作室來解決當地的新市場,並在假期參觀。我們在東漢普頓、揚特維爾、洛斯加托斯、帕薩迪納和我們位於設計區的前舊金山畫廊有幾個現有的地點可以驗證這一戰略,我們在這些地方的 2,000 至 5,000 平方米的空間內創造了 500 萬至 2000 萬美元的年收入腳。我們已經確定了 40 多個位置,這些位置是我們之前在北美的計劃的增量,並且相信這些設計工作室的結果將提供可能導致在這些市場開設更大畫廊的數據。

  • Cash generation. We have demonstrated that those with capital in difficult markets are the ones who capitalize. That's why we raised $2.5 billion of long-term debt before the markets tightened and are now in a position to take advantage of the opportunities that may present themselves in times of uncertainty and dislocation. Times like these also require us to have the discipline to say no to the things that are nice to do in order to focus our time and resources on what is truly important.

    現金產生。我們已經證明,那些在困難市場中擁有資本的人才是資本化者。這就是為什麼我們在市場收緊之前籌集了 25 億美元的長期債務,並且現在能夠利用在不確定性和混亂時期可能出現的機會。像這樣的時代也要求我們有紀律,拒絕做好的事情,以便將我們的時間和資源集中在真正重要的事情上。

  • That includes making the difficult decision to graciously say goodbye to team members whose roles are no longer essential in our new view of the future, enabling us to work in a more integrated and collaborative fashion on fewer, more important priorities. Please note, we've treated everyone with respect and dignity and appreciate the contribution all have made to our cause.

    這包括做出艱難的決定,與在我們對未來的新觀點中不再重要的團隊成員大方告別,使我們能夠以更加整合和協作的方式處理更少、更重要的優先事項。請注意,我們以尊重和尊嚴對待每個人,並感謝所有人為我們的事業做出的貢獻。

  • Approximately 440 roles were eliminated as part of our organizational redesign, and we expect to achieve cost savings of approximately $50 million annually, inclusive of associated benefits and other cost savings. Concurrently, we will be focused on reducing inventories and generating cash, further strengthening our balance sheet to maximize optionality.

    作為我們組織重新設計的一部分,我們取消了大約 440 個職位,我們預計每年將節省大約 5000 萬美元的成本,包括相關收益和其他成本節約。同時,我們將專注於減少庫存和產生現金,進一步加強我們的資產負債表以最大限度地提高選擇性。

  • Outlook. As noted in our previous shareholder letter, we expect business conditions to remain challenging for the next several quarters and possibly longer as a result of the accelerating weakness in the housing market, the uncertainty generated by the recent banking crisis, and the cycling of record COVID-driven sales and backlog reductions.

    外表。正如我們在之前的股東信中指出的那樣,由於房地產市場加速疲軟、近期銀行業危機產生的不確定性以及創紀錄的 COVID 循環,我們預計未來幾個季度的商業環境仍將充滿挑戰,甚至可能更長的時間- 推動銷售和積壓減少。

  • Based on current trends, we expect fiscal 2023 revenues in the range of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion and adjusted operating margin in the range of 15% to 17%, which includes an approximate 150 basis point drag due to the ramp of our global expansion. We estimate the 53rd week will result in revenues of approximately $60 million.

    根據目前的趨勢,我們預計 2023 財年的收入在 29 億美元至 31 億美元之間,調整後的營業利潤率在 15% 至 17% 之間,其中包括由於我們全球擴張的加速而造成的約 150 個基點的拖累。我們估計第 53 週將帶來大約 6000 萬美元的收入。

  • For the first quarter of 2023, we are forecasting revenues of $720 million to $735 million and adjusted operating margin in the range of 13% to 14%.

    對於 2023 年第一季度,我們預計收入為 7.2 億美元至 7.35 億美元,調整後的營業利潤率在 13% 至 14% 之間。

  • RH business vision and ecosystem, the long view. We believe there are those with taste and no scale and those with scale and no taste, and the idea of scaling taste is large and far-reaching. Our goal to position RH as the arbiter of taste for the home has proven to be both disruptive and lucrative as we continue our quest to build the most admired brand in the world.

    RH 業務願景和生態系統,長遠的眼光。我們相信,有有味無尺度的,也有有尺度無味的,有尺度味的理念是宏大而深遠的。隨著我們繼續努力打造世界上最受推崇的品牌,我們將 RH 定位為家居品味仲裁者的目標已被證明既具有顛覆性又有利可圖。

  • Our brand attracts the leading designers, artisans and manufacturers, scaling and rendering their work more valuable across our integrated platform, enabling RH to curate the most compelling collection of luxury home products on the planet.

    我們的品牌吸引了領先的設計師、工匠和製造商,在我們的集成平台上擴大他們的工作並使他們的工作更有價值,使 RH 能夠策劃全球最引人注目的豪華家居產品系列。

  • Our efforts to elevate and expand our collection will continue with the introductions of RH Couture, RH Bespoke, RH Color, RH Antiques & Artifacts, RH Atelier and other new collections scheduled to launch over the next decade.

    我們將繼續努力提升和擴大我們的系列,推出 RH Couture、RH Bespoke、RH Color、RH Antiques & Artifacts、RH Atelier 和計劃在未來十年推出的其他新系列。

  • Our plan to open immersive design galleries in every major market will unlock the value of our vast assortment, generating revenues of $5 billion to $6 billion in North America and $20 billion to $25 billion globally.

    我們計劃在每個主要市場開設沉浸式設計畫廊,這將釋放我們龐大產品組合的價值,在北美創造 50 億至 60 億美元的收入,在全球創造 200 億至 250 億美元的收入。

  • Our strategy is to move the brand beyond curating and selling product to conceptualizing and selling spaces, by building an ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces that establishes the RH brand as a global thought leader, taste and place maker.

    我們的戰略是通過構建產品、場所、服務和空間的生態系統,將品牌從策劃和銷售產品轉移到概念化和銷售空間,將 RH 品牌確立為全球思想領袖、品味和場所製造者。

  • Our products are elevated and rendered more valuable by our architecturally inspiring galleries, which are further elevated and rendered more valuable by our interior design services and seamlessly integrated hospitality experience.

    我們的產品通過我們的建築靈感畫廊提升並變得更有價值,這些畫廊通過我們的室內設計服務和無縫集成的酒店體驗進一步提升並變得更有價值。

  • Our hospitality efforts will continue to elevate the RH brand as we extend beyond the 4 walls of our galleries into our RH Guesthouses, where our goal is to create a new market for travelers seeking privacy and luxury in the $200 billion North American hotel industry. Additionally, we are creating bespoke experiences like RH Yountville, an integration of food, wine, art and design in the Napa Valley, RH1 and RH2, our private jets, and RH3, our luxury yacht that is available for charter in the Caribbean and Mediterranean where the wealthy and affluent visit and vacation. These immersive experiences expose new and existing customers to our evolving authority in architecture, interior design and landscape architecture.

    我們的招待工作將繼續提升 RH 品牌,因為我們超越畫廊的 4 堵牆進入我們的 RH 賓館,我們的目標是為在價值 2000 億美元的北美酒店業中尋求隱私和奢華的旅行者創造一個新市場。此外,我們正在創造定制體驗,如 RH Yountville,納帕谷的美食、美酒、藝術和設計的綜合體,RH1 和 RH2,我們的私人飛機,以及 RH3,我們的豪華遊艇,可在加勒比海和地中海租用有錢有勢的人到訪和度假的地方。這些身臨其境的體驗讓新老客戶接觸到我們在建築、室內設計和景觀建築方面不斷發展的權威。

  • This leads to our long-term strategy of building the world's first consumer-facing architecture, interior design and landscape architecture services platform inside our galleries, elevating the RH brand and amplifying our core business by adding new revenue streams while disrupting and redefining multiple industries.

    這導致了我們的長期戰略,即在我們的畫廊內建立世界上第一個面向消費者的建築、室內設計和景觀建築服務平台,提升 RH 品牌並通過增加新的收入來源擴大我們的核心業務,同時顛覆和重新定義多個行業。

  • Our strategy comes full circle as we begin to conceptualize and sell spaces, moving beyond the $170 billion home furnishings market into the $1.7 trillion North American housing market with the launch of RH Residences, fully furnished luxury homes and condominiums and apartments with integrated services that deliver taste and time value to discerning time-starved consumers.

    隨著我們開始概念化和銷售空間,我們的戰略圓滿結束,通過推出 RH Residences、配備齊全的豪華住宅和公寓以及提供綜合服務的公寓,從價值 1700 億美元的家居裝飾市場進入價值 1.7 萬億美元的北美住房市場對挑剔的時間緊迫的消費者來說,品味和時間價值。

  • The entirety of our strategy comes to life digitally with The World of RH, an online portal where customers can explore and be inspired by the depth and breadth -- depth and dimension of our brand.

    我們的整個戰略通過 The World of RH 以數字方式實現,這是一個在線門戶網站,客戶可以在其中探索我們品牌的深度和廣度 - 深度和維度,並從中獲得啟發。

  • Our authority as an arbiter of taste will be further amplified when we introduce RH Media, a content platform that will celebrate the most innovative and influential leaders who are shaping the world of architecture and design.

    當我們推出 RH Media 時,我們作為品味仲裁者的權威將得到進一步放大,RH Media 是一個內容平台,將慶祝塑造建築和設計世界的最具創新性和影響力的領導者。

  • Our plan to expand the RH ecosystem globally multiplies the market opportunity to $7 trillion to $10 trillion, one of the largest and most valuable addressed by any brand in the world today. A 1% share of the global market represents a $70 billion to $100 billion opportunity.

    我們計劃在全球範圍內擴展 RH 生態系統,將市場機會增加到 7 萬億至 10 萬億美元,這是當今世界上任何品牌所關注的最大和最有價值的市場之一。全球市場 1% 的份額代表著 700 億至 1000 億美元的機會。

  • Our ecosystem of products, places, services and spaces inspires customers to dream, design, dine, travel and live in a world thoughtfully curated by RH, creating an emotional connection unlike any other brand in the world.

    我們的產品、地點、服務和空間生態系統激發客戶在 RH 精心策劃的世界中夢想、設計、用餐、旅行和生活,創造一種不同於世界上任何其他品牌的情感聯繫。

  • Taste can be elusive and we believe no one is better positioned than RH to create an ecosystem that makes taste inclusive, and by doing so, elevating and rendering our way of life more valuable.

    品味是難以捉摸的,我們相信沒有人比 RH 更能創造一個讓品味具有包容性的生態系統,並通過這樣做來提升我們的生活方式,使我們的生活方式更有價值。

  • Climbing the luxury mountain and building a brand with no peer. Every luxury brand, from Chanel to Cartier, Louis Vuitton to Loro Piana, Harry Winston to Hermès, was born at the top of the luxury mountain. Never before has a brand attempted to make the climb to the top nor do the other brands want you to. We are not from their neighborhood, nor invited to their parties. We have a deep understanding that our work has to be so extraordinary that it creates a forced reconsideration of who we are and what we are capable of, requiring those at the top of the mountain to tip their hat in respect.

    攀登奢侈品之山,打造無可匹敵的品牌。從 Chanel 到 Cartier,從 Louis Vuitton 到 Loro Piana,從 Harry Winston 到 Hermès,每一個奢侈品牌都誕生於奢侈品山頂。從來沒有一個品牌試圖攀登到頂峰,其他品牌也不希望您這樣做。我們不是他們的鄰居,也沒有被邀請參加他們的聚會。我們深刻理解,我們的工作必須如此非凡,以至於它會強制重新考慮我們是誰以及我們的能力,要求那些處於山頂的人向他們致敬。

  • We also appreciate that this climb is not for the faint of heart. And as we continue our ascent, the air gets thin and the odds become slim. We believe the level of work we plan to introduce this year, inclusive of our new product collections, new source book design, new gallery designs and the introduction of RH to the U.K. in an innovative and immersive fashion continues to demonstrate the imagination, determination, creativity and courage of this team and the relentless pursuit of our dream.

    我們也很感激這次攀登不適合膽小的人。隨著我們繼續上升,空氣變得稀薄,成功的可能性也越來越小。我們相信,我們計劃在今年推出的工作水平,包括我們的新產品系列、新的資源書籍設計、新的畫廊設計以及以創新和身臨其境的方式將 RH 引入英國,繼續展示想像力、決心、這個團隊的創造力和勇氣以及我們對夢想的不懈追求。

  • 20 years ago, we began this journey with a vision of transforming the nearly bankrupt business with a $20 million market cap and a box for Oxydol laundry detergent on the cover of the catalog into the leading luxury home brand in the world. The lessons and learnings, the passion and persistence, the courage required and the scar tissue developed by getting knocked down 10 times and getting up 11 leads to the development of the mental and moral strength that builds character in individuals and forms cultures in organizations. Lessons that can't be learned in a classroom or by managing the business, lessons that must be earned by building one or by reaching the top of the mountain.

    20 年前,我們開始了這一旅程,我們的願景是將市值 2000 萬美元、目錄封面上有一盒 Oxydol 洗衣粉的幾乎破產的企業轉變為全球領先的豪華家居品牌。教訓和學習、激情和堅持、所需的勇氣和因被擊倒 10 次和爬起來 11 次而形成的疤痕組織會導致精神和道德力量的發展,從而在個人中建立性格並在組織中形成文化。無法在課堂上或通過管理業務學到的課程,必須通過建立一個或到達山頂來獲得的課程。

  • Onward Team RH. Carpe diem. At this point, operator, we'll open the call to questions.

    前進團隊 RH。及時行樂。在這一點上,接線員,我們將打開問題電話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Steven Forbes with Guggenheim Securities.

    (操作員說明)古根海姆證券公司的史蒂文福布斯。

  • Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

    Steven Paul Forbes - Analyst

  • I wanted to expand on the new product launches. You mentioned the timing of these launches as an inflection point within the business. So curious if you can contextualize sort of what's implied by the guide if you're sort of baking in a reacceleration, right, in demand trends at the back half. And then maybe more importantly, how we should think about in stock versus special order mix and the potential revenue contributions of these new collections in the back half.

    我想擴展新產品的發布。您提到這些發布的時間是業務中的一個轉折點。很好奇,如果你正在重新加速烘烤,你是否可以將指南所暗示的內容結合起來,對,在後半部分的需求趨勢中。然後也許更重要的是,我們應該如何考慮庫存與特殊訂單的組合,以及這些新系列在後半部分的潛在收入貢獻。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure. I think based on the times we're in and the uncertainty we're facing, whether it's the continued rise of interest rates or the next bank or 2 that get seized, it's hard to be anything conservative right now. And I think it would be foolish to be, not just from a perspective of disappointing investors but disappointing ourselves and possibly making decisions in investments before we can see around the next corner.

    當然。我認為,基於我們所處的時代和我們面臨的不確定性,無論是利率持續上升,還是下一家或兩家銀行被查封,現在都很難保守。而且我認為這樣做是愚蠢的,不僅從讓投資者失望的角度來看,而且從讓我們自己失望的角度來看,可能在我們看到下一個拐角之前就做出投資決定。

  • I can tell you it's someone -- the unsettling feeling being a person on a Saturday afternoon, was watching a Warriors basketball game, have the news cut to align formed around your local bank, while the banks were sending hourly e-mails, trying to tell you that they're committed to serving you, it's a very unsettling feeling, okay? And those of you maybe on the East Coast that didn't experience what happened here on the West Coast, maybe aren't as close to it. But I, as a person that was close to it, have never seen anything like it.

    我可以告訴你,這是一個人——在周六下午觀看勇士隊的籃球比賽,讓新聞剪裁與你當地的銀行保持一致,而銀行每小時發送電子郵件,試圖告訴你他們致力於為你服務,這是一種非常不安的感覺,好嗎?你們中那些可能在東海岸的人沒有經歷過西海岸發生的事情,也許離它不遠。但我,作為一個接近它的人,從來沒有見過這樣的東西。

  • So I don't know how long was it between the fall of Bear Stearns and the fall of Lehman Brothers. What's going to be the next shoe to drop or pin to fall? That's very unknown right now. So we believe there will be an inflection point in the second half. What we don't know is what will be the economic environment in the second half. What will be the condition of the banking industry in the second half. Where will interest rates be in the second half. Where will inflation be in the second half.

    所以我不知道貝爾斯登倒閉和雷曼兄弟倒閉之間有多久。下一隻掉落或固定掉落的鞋子會是什麼?現在還非常未知。所以我們認為下半年會出現拐點。我們不知道下半年的經濟環境會怎樣。下半年銀行業的狀況如何?下半年利率將何去何從。下半年通脹將何去何從。

  • I think Powell has been very direct and consistent about addressing persistent inflation. All one has to do is Google the history of the federal funds rate and zoom in on the 1970s to 1980s and look how many times the Federal Reserve thought they had inflation under control, lowered the federal funds rate only to have to raise it twice as high, all the way to, I think, 21%. But if you look at those moves and you look closely, zoom into that chart, you realize that we're in uncharted waters today from an economic environment perspective.

    我認為鮑威爾在解決持續通脹問題上一直非常直接和一貫。人們所要做的就是谷歌聯邦基金利率的歷史,放大 1970 年代到 80 年代,看看美聯儲有多少次認為他們已經控制了通貨膨脹,降低了聯邦基金利率,結果卻不得不將其提高兩倍高,一直到我認為的 21%。但如果你仔細觀察這些走勢,仔細觀察,放大圖表,你就會意識到,從經濟環境的角度來看,我們今天正處於未知領域。

  • There's not many people on the planet in levels of authority and responsibility that were old enough to experience those times. And I think that having a conservative view and being prepared, having a strong balance sheet and trying to see the whole Board and all the moves, that we like to say inside, our rates don't move until you see it.

    在這個星球上,沒有多少人的年齡足以經歷那些時代的權威和責任。而且我認為,持保守觀點並做好準備,擁有強大的資產負債表並試圖了解整個董事會和所有舉措,我們喜歡在內部說,我們的利率不會變動,直到你看到它。

  • And so our view is just to be conservative, be prepared and try to capitalize in the -- capitalizing the opportunities that may unveil themselves in times like these, in times of dislocation. Because this is the time of dislocation. Anybody that thinks it's not a big deal that 3 banks went down, where they don't think it's a big deal if the government directed 11 banks to lend $30 billion to my bank just to save that bank is living with a euphoric view of the world. I've been on the planet for long enough to know this is not normal, and this is dangerous.

    因此,我們的觀點只是保持保守,做好準備並嘗試利用——利用在這種混亂時期可能出現的機會。因為這是錯位的時代。任何認為 3 家銀行倒閉沒什麼大不了的人,如果政府指示 11 家銀行向我的銀行貸款 300 億美元只是為了挽救那家銀行,他們認為這沒什麼大不了的,他們生活在對世界。我在這個星球上待了足夠長的時間,知道這不正常,而且很危險。

  • So we want to make sure we navigate this period in the most thoughtful way that we can and position ourselves to really capitalize long term. And that's what we've done in every past time like these, whether you look at 2001 when I joined the company, 2007 and '08, 2015, '16 period, where we had a slowing housing market and some issues in the oil industry as well as an internal issue with the launch of RH Modern.

    因此,我們希望確保我們以最深思熟慮的方式度過這一時期,並將自己定位為真正利用長期資本。這就是我們過去每一次所做的事情,無論你看看我加入公司的 2001 年、2007 年和 08 年、2015 年、16 年期間,我們的房地產市場放緩,石油行業也出現了一些問題以及 RH Modern 發布的內部問題。

  • But we've made during those past times -- we have a history of making a few very important moves that have positioned the company that really shouldn't be here today, right? It was really a bankrupt company and (inaudible) one of the leading companies in the world is what we do. So that's how we approach things. It may be different than everybody else. We're not pushing the panic button of promotions. I wouldn't call it panic button of promotions. It's really trying to hang on to the illusion of where business was during the pandemic, right?

    但我們在過去的那些日子裡取得了成功——我們有做出一些非常重要的舉措的歷史,這些舉措使公司今天真的不應該在這裡,對吧?這真的是一家破產的公司,而(聽不清)世界領先的公司之一就是我們所做的。這就是我們處理事情的方式。它可能與其他人不同。我們不會按下促銷的緊急按鈕。我不會稱之為促銷的緊急按鈕。它真的是在試圖抓住大流行期間企業所在位置的錯覺,對吧?

  • Like the pandemic has come and it's gone. Some of the aftereffects are still lingering. We're acting like it's never happened. And so whatever the giveback is, the situation is, does it really matter? If our business looks more like 2019 coming out of it, but it's really built on a strong base and foundation with a really exciting long-term strategy and vision, that's what we think is important. Not hitting the sale button is not sending out sale e-mails. I don't know. Check your inboxes, unless you're getting filtered.

    就像大流行來了又走了。一些後遺症仍然揮之不去。我們表現得好像它從未發生過一樣。因此,無論回饋是什麼,情況是,這真的重要嗎?如果我們的業務看起來更像是 2019 年,但它確實建立在堅實的基礎之上,並具有真正令人興奮的長期戰略和願景,這就是我們認為重要的。不點擊銷售按鈕就不會發送銷售電子郵件。我不知道。檢查你的收件箱,除非你被過濾了。

  • A lot of people are saying, we're not really returning to promotions. I'm sorry. If you're sending me promotional e-mails every other day, if not every day, multiple times a day, calling them different things. You want to call your promotion something different? That's interesting. Let's see what happens when all those people have to anniversary those promotions, right? Let's see how many more promotions they have when they anniversary those promotions. Let's see what happens over the long term as their operating margins start to grind down to where they were historically. Because that's what's going to happen here.

    很多人都在說,我們並沒有真正回歸促銷活動。對不起。如果您每隔一天(如果不是每天)向我發送促銷電子郵件,一天多次,稱它們為不同的東西。你想讓你的促銷活動與眾不同嗎?那很有意思。讓我們看看當所有這些人都必須慶祝這些促銷活動時會發生什麼,對嗎?讓我們看看他們在慶祝這些促銷活動時還有多少促銷活動。讓我們看看隨著他們的營業利潤率開始下降到歷史水平,從長遠來看會發生什麼。因為這就是這裡將要發生的事情。

  • Like we're not doing anything different in our operating margin this year. We guided to a midpoint of 16. You had 150 basis points of drag for international. You've got 17.5. We entered the pandemic with 14.3, right? So we're not changing anything. We're ahead of where we were. I don't know if everybody else is going to end up there. I think there are some new businesses that have grown quickly up a smaller base. But based on some of the sales growth that you see, the operating margins aren't where you think they would be. So I like where we are. We thought deeply about the decisions we made, and this is the game we're going to play right now and we feel good about it.

    就像我們今年的營業利潤率沒有任何不同。我們引導到 16 的中點。國際阻力有 150 個基點。你有 17.5。我們以 14.3 進入大流行,對嗎?所以我們沒有改變任何東西。我們領先於我們的位置。我不知道其他人是否會在那裡結束。我認為有一些新業務在較小的基礎上迅速成長。但根據你看到的一些銷售增長,營業利潤率並不像你想像的那樣。所以我喜歡我們現在的位置。我們對我們所做的決定進行了深入思考,這就是我們現在要玩的遊戲,我們對此感覺很好。

  • As it relates to the stock versus SPO mix for these new collections, what are the in-stock levels, we're going to be in stock. Many of the products -- we run our upholstery business mostly as a special order business just because the customers want choice in color of fabric. And then we generally stock our broader furniture collection. We also were planning to transform our galleries and our floor sets beginning in the late second quarter into the third quarter when we can get the -- enough products in our collections.

    由於它涉及到這些新系列的庫存與 SPO 組合,庫存水平是多少,我們將有庫存。許多產品——我們經營我們的室內裝潢業務主要是作為特殊訂單業務,只是因為客戶想要選擇面料的顏色。然後我們通常會儲存我們更廣泛的家具系列。我們還計劃從第二季度末開始到第三季度改造我們的畫廊和地板佈景,屆時我們可以在我們的系列中獲得足夠的產品。

  • For us to put a single collection in a gallery, that's generally what we order, I don't know, 1,500 to 2,000 pieces of that collection. And so getting factories to ramp up for that kind of a change-out is pretty massive. And so you're balancing the decision between flipping the galleries and being in stock. Our view is we want to flip the galleries sooner than later. We think this product -- I mean one of the reasons we haven't split some more of the stores into contemporary, quite frankly, and we're happy with Contemporary.

    對於我們來說,要在畫廊中放置一個收藏品,通常我們會訂購,我不知道,該收藏品的 1,500 到 2,000 件。因此,讓工廠加速進行這種變革是非常巨大的。因此,您要在翻轉畫廊和存貨之間權衡決定。我們的觀點是我們希望儘早翻轉畫廊。我們認為這個產品 - 我的意思是我們沒有將更多商店分成當代的原因之一,坦率地說,我們對當代感到滿意。

  • Contemporary in its first year is tracking to do more than modern in its first year. So -- and that's even in this environment. And the product that's on its way is, by far, the best work we've ever done. I mean -- and the breadth and depth of the assortment, the value proposition that we're going to have in the market that I think will be disruptive, not only at the high end, it's going to be disruptive to people that are below us in the market just because we have the scale to buy and stock inventory. Many people don't.

    第一年的 Contemporary 比第一年的 Modern 做得更多。所以 - 即使在這種環境中也是如此。到目前為止,正在開發的產品是我們做過的最好的作品。我的意思是 - 以及產品種類的廣度和深度,我認為我們將在市場上擁有的價值主張將具有顛覆性,不僅在高端,它也會對以下人群產生顛覆性影響我們在市場上只是因為我們有規模購買和庫存。很多人沒有。

  • The platforms that are out there today, whether it's Wayfair or others, you can understand, they don't take addition in inventory. So they can't really buy in volume. So they -- because they can't buy in volume, they can't drive efficiencies. So a lot of people say, well, aren't you worried about platforms? Well, I think platforms ought to be worried about us, too.

    今天的平台,無論是 Wayfair 還是其他平台,你都可以理解,它們不增加庫存。所以他們不能真正大量購買。所以他們 - 因為他們無法大量購買,所以他們無法提高效率。所以很多人說,嗯,你不擔心平台嗎?好吧,我認為平台也應該為我們擔心。

  • There's not a platform that's made $1 yet, I would think. I mean Wayfair made money during the peak of the pandemic, for God's sake. And look, may Wayfair be able to hike their prices and make it? I don't know. I only know is that we've got a really great model. We've got, I think, the most compelling vision in our industry. We're trying to do something that's never been done.

    我想,還沒有一個平台能賺到 1 美元。我的意思是,看在上帝的份上,Wayfair 在大流行高峰期賺了錢。看看,Wayfair 能否提高價格並成功?我不知道。我只知道我們有一個非常棒的模型。我認為,我們擁有業內最引人注目的願景。我們正在嘗試做一些從未有人做過的事情。

  • So with the stock versus SPO, the SPO mix for the business, special order mix for the business will be -- it's kind of a really small rock, quite frankly. So those are just little nuances in the business. The key is really going to become I think -- and it's hard to communicate until you've seen it.

    因此,對於股票與 SPO,業務的 SPO 組合,業務的特殊訂單組合將是——坦率地說,這是一塊非常小的石頭。所以這些只是業務中的細微差別。我認為關鍵真的會變成——在你看到它之前很難交流。

  • I mean I don't know how many people on the phone have got the Outdoor Book. But the Outdoor Book to me, I mean just visually looking at it, looking at the cover, looking at the mock covers we've developed for all the other books, feeling the quality of the cover, the page, the [map] finish, it looks like a new brand, and the Outdoor Book has probably the smallest percentage of newness, yet it's a lot. It's got 10 new collections. That's -- many of our competitors don't have 10 collections.

    我的意思是,我不知道電話中有多少人拿到了戶外書。但對我來說,戶外書,我的意思是只是目視它,看看封面,看看我們為所有其他書籍開發的模擬封面,感受封面、頁面、[地圖] 完成的質量,它看起來像一個新品牌,而 Outdoor Book 的新品比例可能最小,但數量很多。它有 10 個新系列。那是——我們的許多競爭對手都沒有 10 個系列。

  • So when you see what's going to happen, this is a big -- the biggest move we've ever made in our history. It's the most exciting time in the history of our company, yet it's the most uncertain time, I'd say, in the history of leading this business. I think it's more uncertain than 2008 and 2009 because you didn't have the inflation problem that we have today. You didn't have some of the political unrest that you have today. And the inflation issue is going to be an interesting one. If the fed can navigate to the other side of that with a positive outcome, with what I'd call any kind of landing, any kind of landing is good.

    因此,當你看到將要發生的事情時,這是一個重大的——我們歷史上最大的舉措。這是我們公司歷史上最激動人心的時刻,但我想說,這是領導這項業務的歷史上最不確定的時刻。我認為它比 2008 年和 2009 年更加不確定,因為你沒有我們今天遇到的通貨膨脹問題。你沒有今天的一些政治動盪。通貨膨脹問題將是一個有趣的問題。如果美聯儲能夠以積極的結果導航到另一邊,我稱之為任何一種著陸,任何一種著陸都是好的。

  • It's land the plane on the other side, whether it's hard, whether it's bumpy, just don't completely crash. Because a complete crash would look like the '70s and the '80s. That will take over a decade to recover from. A recession, which people are worried about and afraid of, like don't -- like we have recessions every 7 to 10 years in this country. It's like we've had the longest economic expansion in our history. Don't be afraid of the recession, I'd tell people. Recession is a temporal event. They usually last 12 to 18 months, maybe 24. Pull up the history of the federal funds rate and zoom in to the '70s and '80s. That's what we should be scared of.

    就是把飛機降落在另一邊,硬不硬,顛簸不顛簸,不要完全墜毀就好了。因為徹底的崩潰看起來就像 70 年代和 80 年代。這將需要十多年才能恢復。人們擔心和害怕的經濟衰退,就像不一樣——就像我們這個國家每 7 到 10 年就會發生一次經濟衰退。就好像我們經歷了歷史上最長的經濟擴張。不要害怕經濟衰退,我會告訴人們。經濟衰退是暫時的事件。它們通常持續 12 到 18 個月,也許 24 個月。調出聯邦基金利率的歷史記錄,放大到 70 年代和 80 年代。這才是我們應該害怕的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Simeon Gutman with Morgan Stanley.

    Simeon Gutman 與摩根士丹利。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • Gary, has your approach to the -- I guess the next 12 months of promotional posture, is it changing? Does it -- will it change if the environment gets worse or we know what to expect in terms of pricing and promotion from you?

    加里,你對——我猜接下來 12 個月的促銷姿態有沒有改變?如果環境變得更糟,或者我們知道您在定價和促銷方面的期望,它會改變嗎?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Look, we have, as we said, the biggest collection of new products in our history coming through. So we're going to have to clear existing products, right? So there'll be some promotional activity and clearance activity in the business, as we always have, that may get bigger. And also, our view, because of the uncertainty in the market, we may decide to just move stuff through our outlets and online just faster than we've made normally just to turn inventory -- nonstrategic long-term inventory into cash, right, and position us to have maximum optionality during these times.

    是的。看,正如我們所說,我們擁有歷史上最大的新產品系列。所以我們將不得不清除現有產品,對嗎?因此,與往常一樣,業務中會有一些促銷活動和清倉活動,這些活動可能會變得更大。而且,我們認為,由於市場的不確定性,我們可能會決定通過我們的網點和在線移動東西,只是比我們通常做的更快,只是為了將庫存 - 非戰略性長期庫存轉化為現金,對吧,並讓我們在這段時間內擁有最大的選擇權。

  • So we think leading the business with a cash focus is really important. There's going to be opportunities that we probably couldn't imagine that might unveil themselves, whether it's from a real estate perspective, business opportunities that might exist, ability to accelerate our business in different ways, whether it's -- as we mentioned, kind of what I'd call -- I'd almost call them interior design offices, where if you stop and think about our business, interior design is really something that elevates and amplifies our product. But we've become really the largest residential interior design business in North America and likely the world.

    因此,我們認為以現金為重點來領導業務非常重要。將會有我們可能無法想像的機會出現,無論是從房地產的角度來看,可能存在的商業機會,以不同方式加速我們業務的能力,無論是——正如我們提到的,有點我所說的——我幾乎會稱他們為室內設計辦公室,如果你停下來想想我們的業務,室內設計確實是提升和擴大我們產品的東西。但我們已經真正成為北美乃至全球最大的住宅室內設計公司。

  • And it's become more and more important to our business, long term, attracting the very best people in this industry that are aligned with where we're going, creating incredible offices and spaces for them to approach business in versus maybe having to always be in a retail store. So our design studios are going to kind of thread a new needle, I think, in the business. You'll see the first one in London, [first, the new] concepts, and we'll have some other ones that I think will pop up relatively quickly.

    從長遠來看,它對我們的業務變得越來越重要,它吸引了這個行業中最優秀的人才,他們與我們的發展方向保持一致,為他們創造了令人難以置信的辦公室和空間來開展業務,而不是可能必須一直在一家零售店因此,我認為,我們的設計工作室將在業務中開闢新的方向。你會在倫敦看到第一個,[第一個,新的] 概念,我們還會有其他一些我認為會相對較快出現的概念。

  • But I don't think it -- we're in a really good position to play offense, right? And that's what you want to be in. Like our -- there's no risk here to our balance sheet. There's no risk here to our operating model besides like, hey, we may make less money. Got it. We made a whole lot more money during COVID, and we cashed that away. So we're just in a great position. So I'm not worried about exactly where our business is today.

    但我不認為——我們處於進攻的有利位置,對吧?這就是你想要的。就像我們的一樣——我們的資產負債表沒有風險。我們的運營模式沒有風險,除了,嘿,我們可能會賺更少的錢。知道了。我們在 COVID 期間賺了更多的錢,我們把它兌現了。所以我們處於一個很好的位置。所以我不擔心我們今天的業務到底在哪裡。

  • And I don't mean that to sound like we're not focused on it. We're just focused beyond this next 12 months. We have a lot of things that we're excited to bring to life in the next 12 months. But it's not -- like think about it this way. Did you see any of us sell stock at $700 a share? Have you seen me sell stock when our stock was $700 a share? No.

    我的意思並不是說我們沒有專注於此。我們只是專注於接下來的 12 個月之後。在接下來的 12 個月裡,我們有很多東西很高興能實現。但它不是——就像這樣想。你見過我們有人以每股 700 美元的價格出售股票嗎?當我們的股票是每股 700 美元時,你見過我賣股票嗎?不。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • No.

    不。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Here's the reason I didn't sell stock at $700 a share. We believe it's going to be worth significantly more than that, right? So we're just playing a very long-term game. And if we're right, we're going to create extraordinary shareholder value in this company. We're going to do something nobody else has done. So expect this to play our game. If something really crazy happens, I can't imagine it, something worse than COVID that shuts down multiple parts of the economy again, we may have to improvise adapting over time. But based on what we can see and anticipate that might go wrong today, I think we're good with the game we're articulating, the strategy that we're articulating.

    這就是我沒有以每股 700 美元的價格出售股票的原因。我們相信它的價值會遠不止於此,對吧?所以我們只是在玩一個非常長期的遊戲。如果我們是對的,我們將在這家公司創造非凡的股東價值。我們要做一些其他人沒有做過的事情。所以期待這玩我們的遊戲。如果真的發生了一些瘋狂的事情,我無法想像,比 COVID 更糟糕的事情再次關閉了經濟的多個部分,我們可能不得不隨著時間的推移即興適應。但根據我們所看到的和預計今天可能會出錯的情況,我認為我們對我們正在闡述的遊戲、我們正在闡述的戰略做得很好。

  • Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

    Simeon Ari Gutman - Executive Director

  • If I can sneak a quick follow-up. This just follows up to Steve Forbes' question. The path that you took, the approach to the guidance, are you taking the fourth quarter sales and run rating? Have you made tweaks, I mean, in the last 2 weeks, even given the banking crisis? Like how -- and then are you building in a back half improvement because of the new launches?

    如果我可以快速跟進。這只是史蒂夫福布斯問題的後續。你走的路,指導的方法,你是否採用第四季度的銷售和運行評級?我的意思是,在過去的 2 週內,您是否做出了調整,即使是在銀行業危機的情況下?就像如何——然後你會因為新的發布而在後半部分進行改進嗎?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. There's back half improvement that we launched. We're not going to launch with -- we're doing without some improvement. I would say we're not baking in what might happen in better times. Look, if...

    是的。我們推出了後半部分改進。我們不會推出 - 我們沒有做任何改進。我會說我們不會在更好的時候可能發生的事情中烘烤。看,如果...

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • Or worse times, frankly. Because in the same way we did in 2022 when we were baking in a deterioration, I don't -- that's really part of the story as we look out.

    或者更糟的時候,坦率地說。因為就像我們在 2022 年在惡化中烘烤時所做的那樣,我沒有——這確實是我們向外看的故事的一部分。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Listen, do we think things are going to get significantly worse? I don't think so. I've never seen a luxury home market down 45% in a quarter ever, not even in 2008 and '09. So I think we're near the bottom. But could it get a little worse? I think it could. Was there erosion during the banking crisis? Yes. Our business dropped about 8 points, but it's kind of bounced back a bit. So we didn't factor that drop through the rest of the year because it's kind of returned. So I just don't know if the banks are stable yet. So there could be -- I don't know, maybe there's another 10-point drop if things become destabilized further. Can we withstand that? Yes, we can.

    是的。聽著,我們認為事情會變得更糟嗎?我不這麼認為。我從未見過豪宅市場在一個季度內下跌 45%,即使在 2008 年和 09 年也是如此。所以我認為我們已經接近底部。但它會變得更糟嗎?我認為可以。銀行業危機期間是否存在侵蝕?是的。我們的業務下降了大約 8 個百分點,但有點反彈了。所以我們沒有考慮今年剩餘時間的下降,因為它有點回歸。所以我只是不知道銀行是否穩定。所以可能——我不知道,如果情況進一步不穩定,也許還會再下跌 10 點。我們能承受得住嗎?我們可以。

  • Like I think we've got our cost structure in a good shape. There's levers we can pull and things we can do from a cost and investment perspective. We could slow things down a little bit. There may be times where it's more opportunistic to repurchase our stock that could benefit long-term shareholders. But listen, we are more excited than we've ever been. We're working harder than we've ever worked. Not because we have to, because we want to. Because the work is that exciting right now. And I think the customers -- our existing customers, and I think the new customers that we're hoping to acquire, I think they're going to -- it's kind of hard to not be excited about what I'd call the next chapter of RH. So we feel good.

    就像我認為我們的成本結構處於良好狀態一樣。從成本和投資的角度來看,我們可以利用一些槓桿,可以做一些事情。我們可以放慢速度。有時回購我們的股票可能更適合長期股東受益。但是聽著,我們比以往任何時候都更加興奮。我們比以往任何時候都更加努力地工作。不是因為我們必須這樣做,而是因為我們想要這樣做。因為現在的工作非常令人興奮。我認為客戶——我們現有的客戶,我認為我們希望獲得的新客戶,我想他們會——很難不對我所說的下一個客戶感到興奮RH 的章節。所以我們感覺很好。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Max Rakhlenko with TD Cowen.

    Max Rakhlenko 和 TD Cowen。

  • Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

    Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

  • Great. So first, on the 15% to 17% EBIT margin outlook, just how should we think about gross margin versus SG&A? And then also, how should we think about the 4-wall gallery margins versus a lot of the investments that you'll be making? So just thinking about the core versus some of the growth initiatives. And then I've got a follow-up.

    偉大的。所以首先,關於 15% 到 17% 的息稅前利潤率前景,我們應該如何考慮毛利率與 SG&A?然後,我們應該如何考慮 4 牆畫廊的利潤與您將要進行的大量投資?所以只考慮核心與一些增長計劃。然後我有一個後續行動。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • Well, Max, we don't break out the gross margin-SG&A split, obviously. I mean, clearly, with lower volume '23 versus '22, again, you guys can do the math on what deleverage would occur on lower volume from fixed occupancy costs, just like we had in Q3 and sequentially in Q4. So I'll just say keep doing that math.

    好吧,馬克斯,我們顯然不會打破毛利率-SG&A 的拆分。我的意思是,很明顯,在 23 年和 22 年的交易量較低的情況下,你們可以再次計算出固定佔用成本在較低交易量下會發生什麼去槓桿化,就像我們在第三季度和第四季度的順序一樣。所以我只想說繼續做那個數學。

  • Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

    Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

  • Just talking about a gallery level versus the investments.

    只是談論畫廊級別與投資。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • What do you mean by that? I'm not sure what you're asking.

    你是什麼意思?我不確定你在問什麼。

  • Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

    Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

  • Just thinking about the 4-wall gallery profitability, where you are now versus where you were before, and then also just a lot of the investments. You've got international, which you pointed out, but then you've got a bunch of gallery openings in the U.S. as well as some of the other growth areas that you're focusing on. So just trying to think about more onetime in nature versus the run rate of business.

    想想 4 牆畫廊的盈利能力,你現在和以前的對比,還有很多投資。你有國際性,你指出了這一點,但是你在美國以及你關注的其他一些增長領域有很多畫廊開放。因此,只需嘗試考慮更多的自然界一次性與業務運行率。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • The economic model of the U.S., sort of our North American 4-wall gallery base, hasn't changed other than in the same way that would have been impacted as our business has evolved, whether margins come down as we talked about. But it's not -- I think you don't think about it the same way, I guess, on that basis.

    美國的經濟模式,有點像我們的北美 4 牆畫廊基地,除了隨著我們業務的發展而受到影響的方式之外沒有改變,無論利潤率是否像我們談到的那樣下降。但它不是——我想你不會以同樣的方式考慮它,我想,在那個基礎上。

  • On the international side, we'll have more to say when we open. I don't think there's -- that's a question of also the size ultimately of the business. And as Gary has talked about, we don't have -- it's quite a wide range of what could happen here as we launch.

    在國際方面,我們在開業時會有更多話要說。我認為沒有——這也是企業最終規模的問題。正如加里所說,我們沒有——在我們發佈時,這裡可能發生的事情範圍很廣。

  • Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

    Maksim Rakhlenko - Director

  • Got it. Okay. And then on just the new openings. Any color on the cadence, both U.S. as well as Europe, throughout the year? And then just any color on the new real estate prototype that you're looking to roll out? How should we just think about that annually versus the regular types of galleries that you open? And then just anything on margins and profitability there.

    知道了。好的。然後是新的空缺。美國和歐洲全年的節奏有什麼顏色?然後,您要推出的新房地產原型的顏色是什麼?與您開設的常規類型的畫廊相比,我們應該如何每年考慮這一點?然後就是關於利潤率和盈利能力的任何事情。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • I mean, again, Gary referred to the cadence in the letter. So talking about England opening in the summer, the other galleries are sort of H2 timing. We'll update you as that unfolds. And then also the design studio, same thing. I think it's -- when we have more to share, we will share it. At the moment, that is what we have.

    我的意思是,加里再次提到了信中的節奏。所以談到英格蘭夏季開幕,其他畫廊都在某種程度上是 H2 時機。隨著事情的進展,我們會及時通知您。然後還有設計工作室,同樣的事情。我認為是——當我們有更多內容要分享時,我們將分享它。目前,這就是我們所擁有的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steven Zaccone with Citi.

    花旗銀行的史蒂文·扎科內 (Steven Zaccone)。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • I wanted to follow up on international because it did look like you listed some new cities, and that included Sydney. So curious how you think about that timetable. And on the international stores in particular, how do you plan to merchandise these stores versus the gallery in the U.S.? Like will you have RH Contemporary in the U.K. opening?

    我想跟進國際,因為看起來你確實列出了一些新城市,其中包括悉尼。很好奇你如何看待那個時間表。尤其是在國際商店,你打算如何銷售這些商店而不是美國的畫廊?比如你會在英國舉辦 RH Contemporary 開幕式嗎?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. No, there's -- we're building a global brand. And unless we're in markets that have, for some reason, something that should be vastly different, which there are probably markets we're not going to approach initially, yes, you can expect that -- an RH experience that's very similar.

    是的。不,我們正在打造一個全球品牌。除非我們所處的市場出於某種原因應該有很大的不同,否則我們最初可能不會接觸這些市場,是的,你可以期待——一種非常相似的 RH 體驗。

  • So your question about Sydney, since I outlined the time line for Sydney with famous Paris and Milan and so on and so forth. So -- and so the timetables are all outlined. These are big development projects. Sydney is a brand-new building. They'll be going -- digging into the ground soon.

    所以你的問題是關於悉尼的,因為我概述了悉尼與著名的巴黎和米蘭等地的時間表。所以 - 所以所有時間表都已列出。這些都是大型開發項目。悉尼是一座嶄新的建築。他們會去——很快就會挖到地下。

  • So we have to get certain approvals and things like that, design approvals for the building. We're hopeful. There could be delays. They could decide they don't like our building and want to make changes. So we're working with the local developer that owns the land and is developing kind of a custom build for RH. So if we span a reasonable timetable, if there's no real issues there that should fall in mind, everything else is kind of somewhat under construction or in demolition or some are more complex, less complex.

    所以我們必須獲得某些批准之類的東西,建築的設計批准。我們充滿希望。可能會有延誤。他們可能會決定不喜歡我們的建築並希望進行更改。因此,我們正在與擁有土地的當地開發商合作,並正在為 RH 開發一種定制建築。因此,如果我們制定一個合理的時間表,如果沒有真正的問題需要考慮,那麼其他一切都在某種程度上正在建設或拆除中,或者有些更複雜,更不復雜。

  • Some of the bigger, more complex ones are Milan and London and Paris. Those are all under construction. They're moving along nicely. If you're in Paris in the next few weeks, and if you anywhere near the Champs Elysées and Avenue Montaigne, look up, you'll see -- I think it's almost 100-foot high, something like that, 100-foot-high, 70-foot illustration of the Vitruvian Man wrapping RH Paris as a symbol of our design ethos and beliefs. And soon, you'll see something like that in London.

    一些更大、更複雜的是米蘭、倫敦和巴黎。這些都在建設中。他們進展順利。如果你接下來幾週在巴黎,如果你在香榭麗舍大街和蒙田大道附近的任何地方,抬頭看看,你會看到——我想它差不多有 100 英尺高,差不多,100-高 70 英尺的維特魯威人插圖將 RH Paris 包裹起來,作為我們設計理念和信念的象徵。很快,你就會在倫敦看到類似的東西。

  • So it will be clear to people something coming that they've never seen, see a building wrapped in a way that's never been done. So everything is moving along. And Milan is an extraordinary project. And they dug out the site in the ground. They built the infrastructure for what's going to be an incredible sunken garden restaurant and -- so a lot of exciting things. We're moving along, make a lot of investments. And I think we're going to be relatively easy to find in Europe. I don't know how many people actually know about it yet, but they'll know we're coming. They'll know something's coming that they haven't seen before.

    因此,人們將清楚地看到他們從未見過的即將到來的事物,看到一座以前所未有的方式包裹的建築。所以一切都在前進。米蘭是一個非凡的項目。他們在地下挖出了這個地方。他們為這將是一家令人難以置信的下沉式花園餐廳建造了基礎設施,還有很多令人興奮的事情。我們正在前進,進行大量投資。而且我認為我們在歐洲會相對容易找到。我不知道有多少人真正知道這件事,但他們會知道我們要來了。他們會知道他們以前從未見過的事情即將發生。

  • So there's -- and that's the great thing about the buildings we build, right, is there's people walking by them all the time, driving by them all the time. So there's inherent curiosity that gets filled up. And sure, a lot of people are going to go to our website and say, who is that, and see what we're doing and see who we are. And so the brand is going to be benefited by not just popping open a mall store where you throw a little barricade up along 300 other little storefronts and say, whoever's coming in 2 or 3 months? I mean our buildings are under development for 2 to 3 years. So people get to anticipate our entry into a market for a while. So I think that's one of our advantages, quite frankly.

    所以有——這就是我們建造的建築物的偉大之處,對吧,有人一直從他們身邊走過,一直開車經過他們。所以有一種內在的好奇心被填滿了。當然,很多人會去我們的網站說,那是誰,看看我們在做什麼,看看我們是誰。因此,該品牌將從中受益,而不僅僅是突然打開一家商場商店,在那裡你在其他 300 家小店面設置一個小路障,然後說,誰會在 2 或 3 個月內來?我的意思是我們的建築物正在開發 2 到 3 年。因此,人們會在一段時間內期待我們進入市場。因此,坦率地說,我認為這是我們的優勢之一。

  • Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

    Steven Emanuel Zaccone - Senior Research Analyst

  • Great. Then the second question I had was, I did want to shift to margins. And I was curious for how to think about the path beyond this year. It's helpful to think about the business where you are today versus 2019, but we always used to think about a 20% margin floor for the business. So as we look to '24, would you expect this mid-teens to high-teens operating margin level to be the right level for the business as maybe you return to growth, but it's potentially offset by continuing investments for global?

    偉大的。然後我的第二個問題是,我確實想轉向利潤率。我很好奇如何思考今年以後的道路。將您今天的業務與 2019 年的情況進行比較是有幫助的,但我們過去總是考慮業務的 20% 的利潤率底線。因此,當我們展望 24 年時,您是否期望這個十幾歲到十幾歲的營業利潤率水平對企業來說是合適的水平,因為您可能會恢復增長,但它可能會被全球持續投資所抵消?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think you've got to think about a 20% margin floor, not in the worst housing market -- worst luxury housing market I've ever seen. It's been one of the worst housing markets anybody has seen, right? So I think in the third quarter, with luxury housing down -- fourth quarter, luxury -- if you think about where luxury housing has been, it was down 18% in the first quarter of '22, down 28% in the second quarter of '22, down 38% in the third quarter of '22, and recently reported a couple of weeks ago, down 45% in the fourth quarter of '22, which means -- because you're talking about months and they're kind of going down, it probably means that the last month of the fourth quarter was down close to 50%. It's not 50%.

    是的。我認為你必須考慮 20% 的保證金下限,而不是在最糟糕的房地產市場——我見過的最糟糕的豪宅市場。這是任何人見過的最糟糕的房地產市場之一,對吧?所以我認為在第三季度,隨著豪宅的下降——第四季度,豪宅——如果你想想豪宅的情況,22 年第一季度下降了 18%,第二季度下降了 28% 22 年的第三季度下降了 22 年的 38%,最近幾週前報導,22 年第四季度下降了 45%,這意味著——因為你說的是幾個月,他們是有點下降,這可能意味著第四季度的最後一個月下降了近 50%。這不是 50%。

  • Then you've got a refi market that's down 70%, 80%, some number like that. And housing values -- the refinancing market is another way to drive businesses like ours. When people are refinancing, taking money out, investing money into their home, refurnishing their home, things like that. When you're looking at kind of record inflation, record rising interest rates, record kind of falloff in the housing market like this. Like is there -- I don't think I was thinking that we had a COVID giveback and this kind of market environment with the banking prices and other things all happening at once.

    然後你有一個 refi 市場下降了 70%、80%,類似的數字。和住房價值——再融資市場是推動像我們這樣的企業的另一種方式。當人們進行再融資、取出資金、投資房屋、重新裝修房屋時,諸如此類。當你看到創紀錄的通貨膨脹、創紀錄的利率上升、創紀錄的房地產市場下跌時,就像這樣。就像那裡一樣——我不認為我在想我們有 COVID 回饋和這種市場環境,銀行價格和其他事情都同時發生。

  • So for our customer, they're smart and savvy investors. There's one that -- the luxury housing market went up more than the regular housing market. It is about a 10-point swing between the two, between the nonluxury homes, I think a 10-point swing all year, even more than that in the earlier quarters. And remember, what happens in the housing market, it kind of trails to our business. Didn't happen -- it happened kind of fast, but not completely. It takes about 3 months to kind of completely hit us and settle in. So the -- all of that happening at once. Could we be at 20, if we wanted to be? Could we slow down the European expansion? If we wanted to, could we structure the business and make 20 points? Yes. I mean we could. Is that the right thing to do long term? No.

    因此,對於我們的客戶而言,他們是精明的投資者。有一個 - 豪宅市場的漲幅超過普通住房市場。兩者之間大約有 10 個百分點的擺動,在非豪華住宅之間,我認為全年都有 10 個百分點的擺動,甚至比前幾個季度還要多。請記住,房地產市場發生的事情會影響我們的業務。沒有發生——它發生得有點快,但並不完全。大約需要 3 個月的時間才能完全打擊我們並安頓下來。所以——所有這一切都是同時發生的。如果我們願意,我們可以在 20 歲嗎?我們能放慢歐洲的擴張嗎?如果我們願意,我們可以構建業務並獲得 20 分嗎?是的。我的意思是我們可以。從長遠來看,這是正確的做法嗎?不。

  • So in a typical environment, in a slowing market, with one -- again, one thing hit us at once, but multiple things are hitting us at once. So do we think there's anything different about our long-term view, the business being in the mid-20s operating margin, 30% EBITDA, maybe even higher operating margins than that. Yes, just think about our model and imagine it with real scale, imagine what this looks like. Imagine if we really become one of the great admired luxury brands in the world and what kind of product margins you can achieve when you really reach that level of desirability and -- there's a lot to -- these businesses, yes, the brand that we're trying to build doesn't happen quickly. It takes decades and centuries, if you name all the real luxury brands in the world.

    因此,在一個典型的環境中,在一個放緩的市場中,有一個 - 再一次,一件事同時打擊了我們,但同時有多種事情打擊了我們。那麼我們認為我們的長期觀點有什麼不同嗎,該業務處於 20 年代中期的營業利潤率,30% 的 EBITDA,甚至可能比這更高的營業利潤率。是的,想想我們的模型,想像一下它的真實比例,想像一下它的樣子。想像一下,如果我們真的成為世界上最受推崇的奢侈品牌之一,當您真正達到那種令人嚮往的水平時,您可以實現什麼樣的產品利潤率,以及 - 這些業務有很多 - 這些業務,是的,我們的品牌正在嘗試構建不會很快發生。如果你說出世界上所有真正的奢侈品牌,這需要幾十年甚至幾個世紀的時間。

  • And that's why most people don't even think about building one because it's too far out of their view. I mean we may not get there in my lifetime. The key will be that I set this company on the trajectory to get there and do something that's never been done. Because no one's ever started at the bottom of the mountain like we started. We've been further ahead. If I would have taken the $60 million I raised in 2001 and just started from scratch and not invested in RH, yes, probably, but it's still such a really long time.

    這就是為什麼大多數人甚至不考慮建造一個,因為它離他們的視野太遠了。我的意思是我們可能在我有生之年無法到達那裡。關鍵是我讓這家公司走上了實現目標的軌道,並做了一些從未有人做過的事情。因為從來沒有人像我們一樣從山腳下開始。我們已經走在了前面。如果我拿走我在 2001 年籌集的 6000 萬美元,只是從頭開始,而不是投資於 RH,是的,可能,但這仍然是一個非常長的時間。

  • Hermès is 300 years old. Like most of these brands are more than a century, more than 100 years old. So I got that everybody's been patient. And we're impatient, too. I think we moved faster than most. But it's just a different path. It's not going to be a we got rolled out and we burned out. There's a lot of things that really hot with investors for a little while. And next thing you know, they're not ever again.

    愛馬仕 (Hermès) 已有 300 年曆史。就像這些品牌中的大多數都超過一個世紀,超過 100 年的歷史。所以我知道每個人都很有耐心。我們也很不耐煩。我認為我們比大多數人行動得更快。但這只是一條不同的道路。這不會是我們被推出並精疲力盡的情況。在一段時間內,有很多事情真的很受投資者歡迎。接下來你知道,他們再也不會了。

  • We're trying to build something that's really interesting and unique that stands the test the time. There's just not many people trying to do what we're doing today. So it's a little foreign. And if it's somebody that's not really -- that doesn't really cover luxury, I'd say for people, you want to understand this more? They'll read about Bernard Arnault. Read about how he thinks about luxury brands, what it takes to build them, the discipline you have to have, the radical innovation it takes. The relentless pursuit of a long-term view.

    我們正在嘗試構建真正有趣且獨特的東西,經得起時間的考驗。只是沒有多少人嘗試做我們今天正在做的事情。所以有點陌生。如果它不是真正的人 - 那並沒有真正涵蓋奢侈品,我想對人們說,你想了解更多嗎?他們會讀到伯納德·阿諾特。閱讀他對奢侈品牌的看法,打造這些品牌需要什麼,你必須遵守的紀律,以及它需要的激進創新。不懈追求,著眼長遠。

  • People that are doing it, I think people that are more familiar with luxury brands are more familiar with the path that we're taking than a lot of people that aren't, right? If you're just covering the home furnishing sector of hard goods, almost none of it relates to the path we're taking, except that we're selling furniture and home stuff. It's a very different strategy.

    正在這樣做的人,我認為對奢侈品牌更熟悉的人比很多不熟悉的人更熟悉我們正在走的路,對吧?如果你只是涵蓋耐用品的家居行業,那麼除了我們銷售家具和家居用品外,幾乎沒有任何內容與我們所走的道路有關。這是一個非常不同的策略。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Sigman with Barclays.

    賽斯西格曼與巴克萊銀行。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • I'd love to follow up on that last point, actually. Just thinking about your ability to maintain and continue to grow mind share in this environment and I guess whatever a normal environment ultimately looks like, I mean, to your point, there's so much newness, but it is getting more promotional, and it feels like a lot of competitors may go back to prepandemic promotional levels, right? So you're taking a firm view on that. How do you cut through that noise, right? And I guess if you continue to restrain from discounting, does that just mean that marketing structurally is higher going forward and just offsets that? How do we think about that?

    實際上,我很樂意跟進最後一點。想想你在這個環境中維持和繼續增加思想份額的能力,我想無論正常環境最終是什麼樣子,我的意思是,就你的觀點而言,有很多新事物,但它越來越有促銷性,感覺就像很多競爭對手可能會回到大流行前的促銷水平,對嗎?所以你對此持堅定的看法。你如何消除這種噪音,對嗎?而且我想如果你繼續限制打折,這是否僅僅意味著營銷在結構上會更高,並且只是抵消了這一點?我們如何看待這一點?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • No different than you would have thought about it in 2019. Just don't -- just ignore the pandemic. People who have altered their strategies based on the pandemic, I think they're going to find out that those are going to be things that are hard to hang on to. Because the pandemic is -- is there some things that are modified? Is there going to be more people that work from home? Yes, there are probably people that should have been working from home.

    與您在 2019 年的想法沒有什麼不同。只是不要——只是忽略大流行。那些根據大流行改變了策略的人,我認為他們會發現那些將是難以堅持的事情。因為大流行是——是否有一些東西被修改了?會有更多人在家工作嗎?是的,可能有些人本應在家工作。

  • Are most of the people going to go back to the office? Yes, they're going to go back to the office. Are we going to -- I mean I don't know. How many people do you see wearing masks out there right now? It's kind of weird, right? It's almost like the beginning of the pandemic. You saw the people with masks, and I remember my significant other (inaudible), you have to put this mask to go into the grocery store. I'm not going to put that thing on. It looks weird. It's like I didn't want to put on a mask.

    大多數人會回到辦公室嗎?是的,他們要回辦公室。我們要——我的意思是我不知道。你現在看到有多少人戴著口罩?這有點奇怪,對吧?這幾乎就像大流行病的開始。你看到戴著面具的人,我記得我的另一半(聽不清),你必須戴上這個面具才能進入雜貨店。我不會把那東西放在上面。看起來很奇怪。就像我不想戴上面具一樣。

  • And then the next thing you know, you couldn't think of your life without a mask, right? Just like I had people that came in here pitching the ideas during the pandemic. And Eri's laughing here. She's smiling right now. Because it's like I had so many people like with small business ideas or things that they were doing wanted to pitch to us, whether invest or partner and whatnot, and telling me it's the decade of home.

    然後你知道的下一件事,你無法想像沒有面具的生活,對吧?就像我讓人們在大流行期間來到這裡提出想法一樣。埃里在這裡笑。她現在正在微笑。因為就像我有很多人喜歡小企業的想法或他們正在做的事情想向我們推銷,無論是投資還是合作等等,並告訴我這是家庭的十年。

  • It change -- it is going to change everything, the decade of home. I mean it's a pandemic. How could you say that? Something the world has never seen like in our lifetime, right? I've never seen people walking around the United States of America with mask before. I've never had the government tell us we couldn't leave our house, you have to go buy groceries. Yes. I didn't have to wear gloves going grocery shopping. I didn't have to wash my groceries in my sink before I even put in my fridge. Like I got it. It was a radical change, but it was temporal and not systemic.

    它會改變——它會改變一切,家庭的十年。我的意思是這是一場大流行病。你怎麼能這麼說?世界上我們一生中從未見過的東西,對嗎?我以前從未見過人們戴著口罩在美利堅合眾國走來走去。我從來沒有讓政府告訴我們不能離開我們的房子,你必須去買雜貨。是的。我不必戴手套去雜貨店購物。在我什至放入冰箱之前,我不必在水槽中清洗我的食品雜貨。就像我得到它一樣。這是一個根本性的變化,但它是暫時的而不是系統性的。

  • And it's just -- we don't think that there's a lot different than 2009. We're going to play our game. Where people promotional in 2009? They were. Okay. What's different about other people from us right now, they're promotional on top of not being promotional. If I push the promotional button right now in our business and send some promotional e-mails, our business would go up 10% to 20% overnight.

    而且它只是 - 我們認為與 2009 年沒有太大不同。我們將玩我們的遊戲。 2009年哪里人促銷?他們是。好的。現在其他人和我們有什麼不同,他們在不促銷的基礎上進行促銷。如果我現在在我們的業務中按下促銷按鈕並發送一些促銷電子郵件,我們的業務將在一夜之間增長 10% 到 20%。

  • You'll put some pressures on margins, and it would be really difficult to anniversary next year. And you start spending your time on pricing your business from week to week, month to month, not on building your business. You're focused on price, not on product. And you're thinking about products from a promotional lens. And you're -- yes, you're just playing a completely different game.

    你會給利潤率帶來一些壓力,明年真的很難過年。你開始每週、每月、每月花時間為你的業務定價,而不是建立你的業務。您關注的是價格,而不是產品。而且您正在考慮促銷鏡頭中的產品。而你——是的,你只是在玩一個完全不同的遊戲。

  • So how do you cut through the noise? We've cut through the noise. Read the letter. It's cutting through the noise. That's what we're doing. We're not panicked. We're not nervous. We had the best model going into the pandemic. We have the best model coming out of the pandemic. And we'll have -- and we'll -- I think we'll leapfrog even farther ahead when we get to '24 and '25.

    那麼如何消除噪音呢?我們已經消除了噪音。讀這封信。它正在消除噪音。這就是我們正在做的。我們並不恐慌。我們並不緊張。我們有最好的模型進入大流行。我們擁有從大流行中脫穎而出的最佳模式。我們將擁有——我們將——我認為當我們到達 24 和 25 時,我們將取得更大的進步。

  • I think whenever things have -- from an economic perspective, get a little normal in the housing market, interest rates and get inflation under control, that's the big thing. Like I worry most right now about inflation. But if we don't get that under control and that changes the whole structural economic environment for so many people, that's the most important thing. If Powell gets this under control, somebody ought to make him president of the United States. Because the people that were here in the '70s completely screwed it up.

    我認為,無論何時——從經濟的角度來看,房地產市場、利率和通脹得到控制,這都是一件大事。就像我現在最擔心的是通貨膨脹。但是,如果我們不能控制住它,而這會改變這麼多人的整個結構性經濟環境,那才是最重要的事情。如果鮑威爾能控制住這一切,就應該有人讓他成為美國總統。因為 70 年代這裡的人完全搞砸了。

  • So right now, I'm betting on Powell. I wasn't happy that he thought it was temporal. They didn't move fast enough. But I'm happy with the stance he's taken. Do I wish he raised interest rates 0.5 point? I do. Do I think it really matters that the banking industry, that he went 0.25 point and 0.5 point? No. Not really. The banks that are going to go sideways are the banks that are going to go sideways. The government is going to have to bail banks out.

    所以現在,我打賭鮑威爾。我不高興他認為這是暫時的。他們的動作不夠快。但我對他採取的立場感到滿意。我希望他加息 0.5 個百分點嗎?我願意。我認為銀行業真的很重要嗎,他去了 0.25 點和 0.5 點?不,不是真的。將要橫盤整理的銀行就是將要橫盤整理的銀行。政府將不得不救助銀行。

  • Do I wish yelling would just tell everybody that we're going to backstop everybody's savings in banks? Just tell everybody that, and it will calm everybody down, and it will stop having people nervously take their money out of banks. Like I said, when you're sitting there and you see the news, you see the TV cut to align around your bank, and you're me, and I was yelling to my partner, like we got to get in the car. We got to go downtown. I can still get in the line at the bank. Because people managing my money were going to wire the money out of the bank on Monday. I thought, (expletive), they seized the other bank over the weekend. Maybe I might be too late.

    我希望大喊大叫只是告訴每個人我們將支持每個人在銀行的儲蓄嗎?只要告訴每個人,它就會讓每個人都平靜下來,人們就會不再緊張地從銀行取錢。就像我說的,當你坐在那裡看新聞時,你會看到電視被剪到你的銀行周圍,你就是我,我對我的搭檔大喊大叫,就像我們必須上車一樣。我們得去市中心。我仍然可以在銀行排隊。因為管理我資金的人打算在周一將錢從銀行電匯出去。我想,(咒罵),他們在周末佔領了另一家銀行。也許我來不及了。

  • Like if you have to experience stuff like that, you just know this is not normal. So I just wish that -- look, I think that there's no way the government can't backstop people's savings. And if we continue to have runs on banks and have banks lend other banks money and banks (inaudible), the whole thing's kind of a mess. I think [yelling out] just tell everybody to calm down. This is what the government will do. So no more runs on banks. Powell will have to take the interest rates to wherever he has to take them to, to kill inflation. Then we can get back to normal. Otherwise, zoom in on the '70s. And do you think things are crazy now? Can't even imagine what that was like to navigate through.

    就像如果你必須經歷那樣的事情,你就會知道這是不正常的。所以我只是希望——看,我認為政府不可能不支持人們的儲蓄。如果我們繼續擠兌銀行並讓銀行借錢給其他銀行和銀行(聽不清),那麼整個事情就會變得一團糟。我認為[大喊大叫]只是告訴大家冷靜下來。這就是政府會做的。所以不再擠兌銀行。鮑威爾將不得不將利率帶到他必須帶到的任何地方,以抑制通貨膨脹。然後我們可以恢復正常。否則,放大 70 年代。你認為現在事情很瘋狂嗎?甚至無法想像那是一種怎樣的體驗。

  • Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

    Seth Ian Sigman - Research Analyst

  • Okay. I just want to follow up on 1 point around the margin outlook. You discussed your philosophy about, I guess, maintaining or, I guess, not maintaining the 20% margin and why that makes sense for you right now. I'm just more curious if you could help bridge us to what is actually different from 20% to your actual guidance. I get the 150 basis points of investments and the deleverage in the model, but what else would be different to drive that delta?

    好的。我只想跟進利潤率前景的 1 個點。你討論了你的哲學,我想,維持,或者,我猜,不維持 20% 的保證金,以及為什麼這對你現在有意義。我只是更好奇,您是否可以幫助我們了解 20% 與您的實際指導之間的實際差異。我在模型中得到了 150 個基點的投資和去槓桿化,但驅動該增量還有什麼不同?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Well, I mean we set to inflect the revenue growth back, right? So the housing market has to stabilize. I mean the luxury housing market was down 45% in the fourth quarter. I mean I don't know. Do you have any records on -- have you seen a housing market work on this? When our business is tied to the aftermarket, it's tied to the refinance market. Refinance market is down 70%, 80%, like 78% or something like that.

    好吧,我的意思是我們將調整收入增長,對嗎?因此,房地產市場必須穩定下來。我的意思是豪宅市場在第四季度下跌了 45%。我是說我不知道。您是否有任何記錄——您是否看到房地產市場在這方面發揮作用?當我們的業務與售後市場聯繫在一起時,它就與再融資市場聯繫在一起。再融資市場下降了 70%、80%、78% 或類似的水平。

  • It's not rocket science to know this is a really bad time. I think what's different here than past maybe, is usually when you have a recession, it all gets thrown into the same pot. The fact is we've been in a massive housing recession for the past year. And on top of that, you have kind of the COVID come down. And so -- but yes, businesses, right, that were kind of shut down during COVID that have opened up, so travel and leisure, other things, people are traveling, so they're buying more clothes. That shouldn't surprise anyone.

    知道這是一個非常糟糕的時期並不是火箭科學。我認為這裡與過去的不同之處在於,通常當經濟衰退時,一切都會被扔進同一個鍋裡。事實上,過去一年我們一直處於大規模的房地產衰退之中。最重要的是,你有一種 COVID 下降。所以——但是,是的,企業,對,在 COVID 期間關閉的企業,現在已經開放,所以旅行和休閒,其他事情,人們在旅行,所以他們購買了更多的衣服。這不應該讓任何人感到驚訝。

  • You're going to more -- weddings, people are going to right now because there's no weddings for 2 or 3 years. How many events are happening that people are buying new clothes for, new jewelry for, new perfume to wear? Like yes, people were like, well, lululemon was really up during the pandemic and they're really up now. Well, yes, there was nothing to do but work out during the pandemic, but you did it mostly at home.

    你會參加更多——婚禮,人們現在會參加,因為已經有 2 或 3 年沒有婚禮了。人們購買新衣服、新珠寶、新香水的事件發生了多少?就像是的,人們就像,好吧,lululemon 在大流行期間真的很好,他們現在真的很好。嗯,是的,在大流行期間除了鍛煉之外別無他法,但你主要是在家裡鍛煉。

  • Now you get to go back to your yoga class and your Peloton -- not Peloton, SoulCycle, who's like super happy, really happy that -- they weren't so happy when -- during the pandemic and Peloton took all the business. But they feel pretty good right now. So think about all these things that have changed and think, what happened with Peloton? What was it worth, $50 billion, and now it's worth $3 billion or something? Everybody thought like that was going to last forever, or people thought, oh, SoulCycle was never going to open again?

    現在你可以回到你的瑜伽課和你的 Peloton——不是 Peloton,SoulCycle,他們超級開心,真的很開心——他們在大流行期間並不那麼開心,而 Peloton 接管了所有業務。但他們現在感覺很好。所以想想所有這些已經改變的事情,想一想,Peloton 發生了什麼?它曾經值多少錢,500 億美元,現在值 30 億美元左右?每個人都認為這種情況會永遠持續下去,或者人們認為,哦,SoulCycle 再也不會開張了嗎?

  • Like it's kind of let the time -- the times are more normal. 20% is the floor. This is not normal. So 20% is not the floor. And it's not normal because we're also right on the steps of global expansion, making significant investments in people and travel and training. And I mean opening galleries for us is a massive investment. That's not like store opening for, again, a mall store that takes you 16 weeks to build and a few days to open. We have people there for a month just trying to set and install in our galleries.

    就像是讓時間——時代更正常了。 20% 是地板。這是不正常的。所以 20% 不是底線。這是不正常的,因為我們也正處於全球擴張的步伐中,在人員、旅行和培訓方面進行了大量投資。我的意思是為我們開設畫廊是一項巨大的投資。這又不像開一家商場商店需要 16 週的時間來建造,幾天才能開張。我們派人在那裡待了一個月,只是試圖在我們的畫廊中設置和安裝。

  • Like we're training people in our restaurants for a month or several months. Some people are several months. We've had teams here in San Francisco and New York training for hospitality experiences overseas and for gallery experiences. So massive investment. Will that all kind of normalize once we've opened this kind of first few rounds of countries? Yes. Once we get some scale, the deleverage won't be so great. The investments will be different.

    就像我們在餐廳培訓員工一個月或幾個月一樣。有些人是幾個月。我們在舊金山和紐約的團隊接受過海外酒店體驗和畫廊體驗方面的培訓。如此巨大的投資。一旦我們開放了前幾輪國家/地區,這一切都會正常化嗎?是的。一旦我們達到一定規模,去槓桿化就不會那麼大了。投資會有所不同。

  • So I don't think anybody ought to be surprised. But I mean it's -- when I said 20%, we should be able to stand at 20%. I was kind of thinking about a COVID giveback, not a COVID giveback and a collapse of the housing market. I'm sorry if anybody is surprised. That math isn't hard to do.

    所以我認為任何人都不應該感到驚訝。但我的意思是——當我說 20% 時,我們應該能夠達到 20%。我在考慮 COVID 回饋,而不是 COVID 回饋和房地產市場的崩潰。如果有人感到驚訝,我很抱歉。這個數學並不難做。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Anthony Chukumba with Loop Markets.

    Loop Markets 的 Anthony Chukumba。

  • Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

    Anthony Chinonye Chukumba - MD

  • It's sort of a related question. But I mean, obviously, last quarter, you were talking about the fact that sales could be down 20% this year, but you could hang on to that 20% operating margin. And now you're actually not expecting sales to be down quite as much, but the operating margin is going to come in significantly below 20%. So I was just -- I mean is it the macro? Like I guess I'm just trying to understand -- obviously, look, we see all the same headlines you do, but I'm just trying to understand that sort of disconnect between what you said last quarter and what you're saying now.

    這是一個相關的問題。但我的意思是,很明顯,上個季度,你在談論今年銷售額可能下降 20% 的事實,但你可以保持 20% 的營業利潤率。現在您實際上預計銷售額不會下降那麼多,但營業利潤率將大大低於 20%。所以我只是 - 我的意思是它是宏嗎?就像我想我只是想理解 - 顯然,看,我們看到的所有標題都和你一樣,但我只是想理解你上個季度所說的和你現在所說的之間的那種脫節.

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • What I said last quarter was our core business, right, in isolation can maintain 20%, not with all the investments. So that's what I said last quarter.

    我上個季度說的是我們的核心業務,是的,孤立地可以保持20%,而不是所有的投資。這就是我上個季度所說的。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • And Anthony, just -- in Q3 2021 is when we made -- initially made that comment. And so if you think about just relative to the sales we generated in that year, I mean you could think about it at a $3 billion roughly level. So I think we've been trying -- I've been trying to clarify it as well. So not just 20% in isolation, it is relative to certain business size. And as Gary, for all the reasons talked -- that Gary just talked about, could we generate 20% margins at a $3 billion revenue? Yes. Is that the right thing or the thing that we're choosing to do? No. I'll just reiterate what Gary said.

    而安東尼,只是 - 在 2021 年第三季度,我們做了 - 最初發表了這一評論。因此,如果您只考慮我們當年產生的銷售額,我的意思是您可以大致考慮 30 億美元的水平。所以我認為我們一直在努力——我也一直在努力澄清它。因此,不僅僅是孤立的 20%,它與特定的業務規模有關。正如加里所說的那樣——加里剛才談到的所有原因,我們能否在 30 億美元的收入中產生 20% 的利潤率?是的。這是正確的事情還是我們選擇做的事情?不,我只是重申加里所說的話。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Lasser with UBS.

    Michael Lasser 與瑞銀。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • So you mentioned that the Contemporary business is on pace to exceed the Modern business at a similar time frame, and yet you're guiding to a -- at the midpoint of mid-20s sales decline in the first quarter. So how incremental is the Contemporary business? And how does that inform how you think about the incrementality of the launches that you're going to be doing later this summer?

    所以你提到當代業務在類似的時間框架內有望超過現代業務,但你正在引導 - 在第一季度 20 年代中期銷售額下降的中點。那麼當代業務的增量如何?這如何告知您如何考慮今年夏天晚些時候將要進行的發布的增量?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • And it's all baked into our guidance right now, right? It's not a normal time. So when you think about incrementality in a time like this, obviously, it's different, but it's all baked into our guidance.

    現在這一切都融入了我們的指導方針,對吧?現在不是正常時間。所以當你在這樣的時候考慮增量時,顯然,它是不同的,但它都融入了我們的指導方針。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • And the down 20% in Q1, again, is relative, again, on a comparable basis -- on a compare basis versus up 11% in Q1 of last year. And the year unfolded with a flat revenue growth in Q2, down 14% -- down 14% in Q3 and Q4. So I think you just have to take that into account as well, but the down 20% is relative to just higher level the business was before the trend started to deteriorate early last year.

    而在可比基礎上,第一季度下降 20% 再次是相對的——與去年第一季度增長 11% 相比。今年第二季度的收入增長持平,下降了 14%——第三季度和第四季度下降了 14%。所以我認為你也必須考慮到這一點,但下降 20% 是相對於去年初趨勢開始惡化之前業務的較高水平而言的。

  • Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

    Michael Lasser - MD and Equity Research Analyst of Consumer Hardlines

  • And you're pushing ahead with a lot of the investment. You're going to be trying to manage the cash flow of the business carefully. How are you going to be approaching share repurchases? You stock, as you pointed out earlier, well below where it was a few years ago. Would this be an opportunity to be even more aggressive with buying back the stock?

    而且您正在推進大量投資。您將嘗試仔細管理企業的現金流。你打算如何進行股票回購?正如您之前指出的那樣,您的庫存遠低於幾年前的水平。這會是一個更積極地回購股票的機會嗎?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Sure. I mean nothing's different than what we said last time. I mean we'd like to get some visibility, and certainty is about where things are heady, how much capital we deploy in share repurchases. And also, I think everybody should know, like I read sometimes analysts' notes that say, yes, we expect that they bought more shares this quarter. And I don't know if everybody knows the blackout rules of buying shares, but we can only repurchase shares for a certain number of weeks in a quarter. And so we're not buying shares -- some of these people put in their notes, oh, RH must be in the market buying shares right now. I'm like does -- do people really not know you can't buy shares the whole quarter? I mean we can only buy shares at certain times. How many weeks do we have open?

    當然。我的意思是和我們上次說的沒什麼不同。我的意思是我們希望獲得一些知名度,確定性在於事情的發展方向,我們在股票回購中部署了多少資金。而且,我認為每個人都應該知道,就像我有時讀到分析師的筆記說,是的,我們預計他們本季度購買了更多股票。而且我不知道大家是否知道買股票的blackout rules,但是我們一個季度只能回購一定週數的股票。所以我們不買股票——其中一些人在他們的筆記中寫到,哦,RH 現在一定在市場上買股票。我很喜歡——人們真的不知道你不能在整個季度購買股票嗎?我的意思是我們只能在特定時間購買股票。我們有多少週開放?

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • Well, I mean after this quarter, only 2 weeks, but typically, it would be 5 or 6, depending on when we release.

    好吧,我的意思是在這個季度之後,只有 2 週,但通常是 5 或 6 週,這取決於我們發布的時間。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • This week, we have 2 weeks to buy shares this quarter, 5 or 6 weeks in other quarters. And so I mean share repurchases is possibly one of the opportunities, and there's other opportunities that are going to unveil themselves. So I mean we'll see. You make those decisions somewhat in a fluid manner as you see how the market unfolds and the opportunities unfolds. So -- but clearly, we've repurchased $1 billion of our stock at an average of -- what was it?

    本週,我們有 2 週的時間購買本季度的股票,其他季度有 5 或 6 週的時間。所以我的意思是,股票回購可能是機會之一,還有其他機會即將揭曉。所以我的意思是我們拭目以待。當您看到市場如何展開和機會如何展開時,您會以某種流暢的方式做出這些決定。所以——但很明顯,我們平均回購了 10 億美元的股票——那是多少?

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • [269].

    [269]。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • [269] thus far. So yes, I mean nothing different than what we've communicated in the past.

    [269] 到目前為止。所以是的,我的意思與我們過去交流過的沒什麼不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Peter Benedict with Baird.

    彼得·本尼迪克特和貝爾德。

  • Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

  • Curious, the CapEx and free cash flow view that you have for this year. You talked about bringing inventory down. Just that's kind of my first question.

    奇怪的是,您對今年的資本支出和自由現金流的看法。你談到降低庫存。這就是我的第一個問題。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • So Peter, just what our range is?

    那麼彼得,我們的範圍是多少?

  • Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

  • Yes, what you're thinking in terms of CapEx for this year and free cash flow. That's basically my first question.

    是的,您在今年的資本支出和自由現金流方面有何想法。這基本上是我的第一個問題。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • Concurrently with the release, so $275 million to $325 million is the range in the 10-K. We're not guiding free cash flow. So we'll keep posted on that. As far as inventory, you see it sequentially coming down. Obviously, we peaked in Q2 of last year and Q4 came down. So we're clearly -- as Gary talked about, we're rightsizing that inventory and making moves to especially discontinued product and other things. So at a high level, I'd say inventory will continue to sequentially decrease over the year as we get to a rightsized level and more appropriate for the size of the business.

    在發布的同時,10-K 的範圍是 2.75 億美元到 3.25 億美元。我們沒有指導自由現金流。所以我們會繼續發布。就庫存而言,您會看到它依次下降。顯然,我們在去年第二季度達到頂峰,第四季度下降。所以我們很清楚——正如加里所說,我們正在精簡庫存,並採取行動特別是停產的產品和其他東西。因此,在較高的水平上,我會說隨著我們達到合適的水平並且更適合企業規模,庫存將在一年中繼續減少。

  • Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

    Peter Sloan Benedict - Senior Research Analyst

  • That makes sense. And then just on the comments around strengthening the balance sheet being one of the focus areas for '23. Can you talk about leverage, how you're thinking about it as you look out over the next 12 months? Are there any levels you don't want the business to get above? Just any color on that, Jack, would be helpful.

    這就說得通了。然後只是關於加強資產負債表的評論是 '23 的重點領域之一。你能談談槓桿作用嗎?在接下來的 12 個月裡,你是如何看待它的?是否有任何您不希望企業超越的水平?傑克,任何顏色都會有幫助。

  • Jack M. Preston - CFO

    Jack M. Preston - CFO

  • Yes. I think we think longer term, I think temporal swings in leverage, they're not -- again, it's not something that we're sitting here thinking that, "Oh, my God, that's a trigger and we're going to now do something, repay debt or raise equity." Again, I'm just throwing out pendulum swing type ideas. Again, that's not how we spend our time. We spend our time focusing on the future.

    是的。我認為我們從長遠來看,我認為槓桿的暫時波動,它們不是——再一次,這不是我們坐在這裡思考的事情,“哦,天哪,這是一個觸發因素,我們現在要做點什麼,償還債務或籌集資金。”同樣,我只是拋出擺動式的想法。同樣,這不是我們度過時間的方式。我們把時間花在關注未來上。

  • So we've raised the level of capital that we are comfortable with and with the free cash flow profile that we have, the size of the business we're growing to, the size of the price, the way we spend our time and the free cash flow we will generate over the next 5, 10 years, whatever the time frame is. I think our debt -- obviously, we have 5 years -- 5.5 years up on the term loans. There's nothing earning in that sense. From our perspective, the short-term stuff is temporal. So I'm not sure that there's anything to talk about on that topic.

    因此,我們已經提高了我們滿意的資本水平以及我們擁有的自由現金流狀況、我們正在發展的業務規模、價格規模、我們花費時間的方式以及我們將在未來 5 年、10 年內產生自由現金流,無論時間框架如何。我認為我們的債務——顯然,我們有 5 年——比定期貸款高 5.5 年。從這個意義上說,沒有任何收入。從我們的角度來看,短期的東西是暫時的。所以我不確定關於那個話題有什麼可談的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jonathan Matuszewski with Jefferies.

    Jonathan Matuszewski 與 Jefferies。

  • Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst

    Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst

  • First one was on the membership base. It looks like in the 10-K, around 350,000 members at year-end, so down around 24%. Are you guys seeing accelerating rates of membership cancellations year-to-date? And maybe if you could just shed some light on this attrition. I would think the annual membership fee is a small change to your average customer. So just any thoughts there, whether this is just churn of some of your more aspirational customers. That would be my first question.

    第一個是在會員基礎上。看起來在 10-K 中,年底時大約有 350,000 名成員,因此下降了大約 24%。你們是否看到今年迄今為止會員資格取消的速度加快?也許你可以闡明這種減員。我認為每年的會員費對您的普通客戶來說是一個小變化。所以有什麼想法,這是否只是一些更有抱負的客戶的流失。那將是我的第一個問題。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • I mean membership reflects our underlying business, and it's a lag behind sort of sales and demand. And then if you have increasing AOVs, increasing AURs as we've had -- that factors into having fewer members for the same level of sales, so it's just -- memberships are going to be, again, reflective of the size. And as far as renewals go, I mean you're going to see some noise in that number here and there, but I would say it's been plus or minus at a level that's been consistent over the years.

    我的意思是會員資格反映了我們的基礎業務,它落後於銷售和需求。然後,如果你有增加的 AOV,像我們一樣增加 AUR——這會導致相同銷售水平的會員減少,所以這只是——會員將再次反映規模。就續約而言,我的意思是你會在這里和那裡看到一些噪音,但我會說它在多年來一直保持一致的水平上是正負的。

  • We haven't disclosed that number. But to your specific question, I don't think there's an uptick in sort of cancellations or any changes in that sort of behavior because of the economic backdrop. And if it is, again, it's just minor. It's not something that's worth highlighting.

    我們沒有透露這個數字。但對於你的具體問題,我認為由於經濟背景,取消或此類行為的任何變化都不會增加。如果是,那也只是次要的。這不是值得強調的事情。

  • Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst

    Jonathan Richard Matuszewski - Equity Analyst

  • Got you. That's helpful. And then just a quick follow-up on the organizational redesign. Can you expand on the workforce reduction? It looks like 440 roles were deemed no longer essential. What kind of initiatives are being deprioritized or delayed in connection with these roles?

    明白了這很有幫助。然後只是對組織重新設計的快速跟進。你能擴大裁員嗎?看起來 440 個角色被認為不再重要。與這些角色相關的哪些計劃被取消優先級或延遲?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think it's just a level of detail is that terribly important to discuss on this call. So we -- like in any reorganization and redesign, you're going to redesign the organization around what the top priorities are. I think we're pretty clear at what we've articulated as top priorities and then things that we believe are less essential. And whether it's just now or -- we're pretty disciplined every few years of kind of going through an organizational redesign. So I don't think it's anything that I'd say is worth mentioning. And I'd say more focused -- what we are focused on, right?

    是的。我認為只是一定程度的細節對於在這次電話會議上討論非常重要。所以我們 - 就像在任何重組和重新設計中一樣,您將圍繞最優先事項重新設計組織。我認為我們非常清楚我們已經闡明了什麼是首要任務,然後是我們認為次要的事情。無論是現在還是——我們每隔幾年就會非常有紀律地進行一次組織重新設計。所以我認為我要說的任何事情都不值得一提。我會說更專注——我們專注於什麼,對吧?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Steve McManus with BNP.

    BNP 的史蒂夫·麥克馬納斯 (Steve McManus)。

  • Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst

    Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst

  • So I had a question on backlog relief. With the contribution in Q4, has that largely normalized? Or is there still some remainder to work through?

    所以我有一個關於積壓救濟的問題。有了第四季度的貢獻,這在很大程度上已經正常化了嗎?或者還有一些剩餘的工作要做?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • There is still a remainder. I remember at the beginning of last year, we had talked about $200 million of sort of over and above normal backlog. As we look out to where we stand today, we've probably gotten through about $100 million of that. So relative to a normalized number prepandemic, again, another $100 million to go. I think that roughly split out evenly throughout -- as we looked at the numbers last year, call it, roughly 25 a quarter, plus or minus, but just giving you a directional number.

    還有餘數。我記得在去年年初,我們談到了 2 億美元的超出正常積壓的訂單。當我們展望今天的情況時,我們可能已經完成了其中的大約 1 億美元。因此,相對於大流行前的標準化數字,又要花掉 1 億美元。我認為這在整個過程中大致平均分配——正如我們查看去年的數字一樣,每季度大約 25 個,正負,但只是給你一個方向性的數字。

  • And then as far as how it unfolds this year, it's going to be tied to just getting transit times back to normal, which they're on their way, production lead times down back to normal, which they're on their way. So I think it's possible that we get through it by the end of the year. But there's also -- we're also looking at 2019 as some snapshot of perfection and might not be. There could be some different ways that consumers are behaving.

    然後就今年的發展情況而言,這將與讓運輸時間恢復正常有關,他們正在努力,生產提前期恢復正常,他們正在努力。所以我認為我們有可能在年底前完成它。但也有——我們也將 2019 年視為完美的縮影,但可能並非如此。消費者可能有一些不同的行為方式。

  • And yes, the size of the business is different. The backlog is going to be different. I'd also say that based on the historic amount of newness it's going to be introduced, I would -- we're never going to buy anything exactly right. So my sense is, whenever you have big newness introductions, you're going to drive higher backlog, higher back orders, things like that, RH special orders.

    是的,業務規模不同。積壓將有所不同。我還要說,根據歷史上將要推出的新品數量,我會——我們永遠不會買任何完全正確的東西。所以我的感覺是,每當你有大的新產品介紹時,你就會推動更多的積壓,更高的延期交貨,諸如此類的事情,RH 特殊訂單。

  • Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst

    Stephen James McManus - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then on advertising, it looks like that almost doubled this year. How should we be thinking about that and the cadence of source book circulation moving through this year?

    好的。然後在廣告方面,今年看起來幾乎翻了一番。我們應該如何考慮這一點以及今年原始書籍發行的節奏?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes, like probably any business, we're always trying to find what is the right cadence of investments to optimize the model. This is a business that, at one point, spent 10% a year on advertising, then 8%, then 6%, and 4%, and then things changed. The pandemic, I think we've historically been around 4%, right, in the recent history. But we used to run it at 8%.

    是的,就像任何企業一樣,我們一直在努力尋找合適的投資節奏來優化模型。這是一家企業,曾一度每年在廣告上花費 10%,然後是 8%、6% 和 4%,然後情況發生了變化。大流行病,我認為我們在最近的歷史中一直在 4% 左右,對吧。但我們曾經以 8% 的速度運行它。

  • And so I think about it from a strategic perspective. We're opening galleries that are very dominant since the presence in markets, right? And what we've been able to do over time is realize that where we've made those physical -- have the physical expressions of our brand, in dominant ways, those bring a great deal of brand awareness and require maybe less advertising the markets that have a small store and don't show as much of the assortment and don't have such a physical presence.

    所以我從戰略角度考慮它。我們開設的畫廊自進入市場以來就佔據了主導地位,對吧?隨著時間的推移,我們已經能夠做到的是,我們已經意識到,在我們將這些實體化的地方 - 以主要方式擁有我們品牌的實體表達,這些帶來了很大的品牌知名度並且可能需要更少的市場廣告有一家小商店,不會展示盡可能多的品種,也沒有這樣的實體存在。

  • Like if you're in Marin here, if you entered anywhere near the parking lot, there's no way you miss us, right? So you don't need to be reminded about RH as much. We don't know where we are. We kind of can perceive how much bigger we are than other people, assortment we may have, maybe eat in one -- in our restaurants and walk around. And just getting to and from the restaurants, going up and down the stairs, you're going to see and perceive a lot about our business, where other businesses, it could be a walk on by, right? Like just another 50-foot storefront in a mall.

    就像你在馬林這裡一樣,如果你進入停車場附近的任何地方,你就不會想念我們,對吧?所以你不需要太多關於 RH 的提醒。我們不知道我們在哪裡。我們可以感覺到我們比其他人大多少,我們可能擁有的品種,也許在我們的餐廳和四處走動時吃一個。只是進出餐廳,上下樓梯,你會看到並感知到很多關於我們業務的信息,而其他業務可能只是步行過去,對吧?就像商場裡另一個 50 英尺的店面。

  • So there's a lot to think about when you think about this -- the physical expression of our brand that we're building and the value that, that brings to the just marketing and awareness of the RH brand and how it's perceived because of not only the size of it, but the quality and the architecture and the design of it all, all communicate so many things that you can't communicate in a pop-up ad or even in the magazines.

    因此,當您考慮這一點時,有很多事情要考慮——我們正在建立的品牌的物理表達和價值,這給 RH 品牌帶來了公正的營銷和意識,以及人們如何看待它,因為不僅它的大小,但它的質量、架構和設計,都傳達了很多你無法在彈出式廣告甚至雜誌上傳達的東西。

  • So my sense is we could build advertising back up to a higher level than that. Historically, you would say advertising could easily be $120 million today, if you're looking at what it looked like historically in 2019. So we'll see. The pandemic kind of threw it all off. Nobody in the home business needed to advertise at all during that period of time.

    所以我的感覺是我們可以建立比這更高水平的廣告。從歷史上看,如果你看看 2019 年的歷史情況,你會說今天的廣告很容易達到 1.2 億美元。所以我們拭目以待。大流行有點把這一切都扔掉了。在那段時間裡,在家經營的企業根本不需要做廣告。

  • And so we didn't -- we kind of banked that money during that period, and now it's -- how do we build it up? What's the right level and what market? I think -- I would say that the marketing or advertising jobs in companies is the hardest one to figure out in today's world with all the choices you have.

    所以我們沒有——我們在那段時間把錢存起來了,現在是——我們如何建立它?什麼是合適的水平和什麼市場?我認為——我會說公司的營銷或廣告工作是當今世界上最難找到的工作,你有所有的選擇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Seth Basham with Wedbush.

    賽斯·巴沙姆和韋德布什。

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • My question is just in regards to the statement you made in the shareholders' letter about this being the most difficult part of the climb up the luxury mountain. Has there been anything that you heard over the last year or so that made it more difficult than you previously thought? Obviously, putting the macro aside, and I know there are many crosscurrents.

    我的問題是關於你在股東信中所說的,這是攀登豪華山峰最困難的部分。在過去一年左右的時間裡,您是否聽到過任何讓事情變得比您之前想像的更困難的事情?顯然,拋開宏觀,我知道有很多分歧。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • That's from a strategic perspective of just the climb up the mountain. I mean just if you throw the inflationary period and the rising interest rates and difficult housing market and so on and so forth, that just makes everything harder, right? But the climb up the mountain, particularly, we've always articulated why I keep that last section there. Climbing a luxury mountain, building a brand with no peer, the higher you go, the more difficult and treacherous the climb. It's a climb no one's ever made before, right?

    那隻是從爬山的戰略角度來看。我的意思是,如果你拋出通脹時期、利率上升和房地產市場困難等等,那隻會讓一切變得更難,對吧?但是爬山,特別是,我們總是清楚地說明為什麼我把最後一部分留在那裡。攀登一座奢華的山峰,打造無可比擬的品牌,越往上爬,越是艱難險阻。這是從未有人攀登過的,對吧?

  • So as Eri has famously quoted in our company before, the air gets thin and the odds become slim. Just because it's never been done. It's like trekking the highest mountains in the world. So we know it's difficult. It hasn't been done. So we know that our work has to be more extraordinary and more remarkable. And it has to create a forced reconsideration in who we are and what we're capable of. And it has to force the people at the top of the mountain to tip their hat and respect and accept us and admire us. That's not easy. Point to somebody else that has done it.

    因此,正如 Eri 之前在我們公司引用的那句名言,空氣變得稀薄,可能性變得渺茫。只是因為從來沒有做過。這就像徒步旅行世界上最高的山峰。所以我們知道這很困難。它還沒有完成。所以我們知道,我們的工作必須更非凡、更卓越。它必須強制重新考慮我們是誰以及我們的能力。而且還得逼著山頂上的人給我們脫帽致敬,尊重我們,接受我們,佩服我們。這並不容易。指出已經做到的其他人。

  • So we -- it gets more difficult, but we also are significantly better than we were when people climb it at the bottom of the mountain. So you're learning as you go. You're becoming stronger and get more experience and more knowledge, get more tools and more support. So -- and as much -- look, I addressed my letter to our people, partners and shareholders. It's not an accident that it's in that order, right? I'm communicating to the thousands of people and Team RH where we're going and what we're doing, right?

    所以我們 - 它變得更加困難,但我們也比人們在山腳下攀爬時要好得多。所以你邊走邊學。你正在變得更強大,獲得更多的經驗和更多的知識,獲得更多的工具和更多的支持。所以——同樣地——看,我給我們的員工、合作夥伴和股東寫了這封信。按照這個順序不是偶然的,對吧?我正在與成千上萬的人和 RH 團隊溝通我們要去的地方和我們正在做的事情,對嗎?

  • And it is going to get more difficult, and it is not for the faint of heart. And it is not a climb that anybody's made before. But if we make the climb, the rewards are also extraordinary and probably never seen before. So has anything become more difficult? No. It's just -- is business more difficult than it was during the pandemic? Of course. Is it more difficult than it was in 2018 and '19? Of course Were businesses tied to the housing market and to interest rates and to refinance market?

    而且它會變得更加困難,而且不適合膽小的人。這不是任何人之前完成的攀登。但如果我們成功攀登,回報也是非同尋常的,而且可能是前所未見的。那麼有什麼事情變得更困難了嗎?不,只是——業務是否比大流行期間更困難?當然。是否比 2018 年和 19 年更難?當然 企業是否與房地產市場、利率和再融資市場掛鉤?

  • And so it will be more difficult. But that's just temporal. That is temporal. Pandemic was temporal. So hopefully, we're sitting here in 12 months, 18 months, the fed's lowering interest rates, the housing market's up 20%. Things are great. You just can't plan for them to be great all the time, and you can't plan for them to be bad all the time. So you try to just take the right long-term view and navigate through the noise and distractions that could take you off your path and have you wind up in the ditch.

    因此,這將更加困難。但這只是暫時的。那是暫時的。大流行是暫時的。所以希望我們在 12 個月、18 個月後坐在這裡,美聯儲降低利率,房地產市場上漲 20%。東西很棒。你不能計劃讓他們一直都很棒,你也不能計劃讓他們一直很糟糕。因此,您嘗試採取正確的長遠眼光,並在可能使您偏離道路並最終陷入困境的噪音和乾擾中導航。

  • Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

    Seth Mckain Basham - MD of Equity Research

  • That's helpful. And just to be clear, there's nothing that you've seen over the course of the past year that leads you to believe that you're shedding customers that are not just low value, but sort of mid-value that you would prefer not to shed and that you need to course correct for that?

    這很有幫助。需要明確的是,在過去的一年中,您沒有看到任何東西讓您相信您正在流失的客戶不僅是低價值的,而且是您不希望的中等價值的客戶棚,你需要當然糾正嗎?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Mid-value. No, look, we're not going to -- yes, I think what you're seeing maybe the delta in our business and other's business who've turned promotions back on. That's the only delta that you have right now. Could they be taking market share from a mid-value customer, that maybe if I push the promotional button here, maybe we get some of those customers, yes -- but we'd probably lose them over the long term anyway. So times like these kind of accelerate things.

    中值。不,看,我們不會 - 是的,我認為你所看到的可能是我們業務和其他業務中已經重新啟動促銷的三角洲。那是您現在擁有的唯一增量。他們是否可以從中等價值客戶那里奪取市場份額,也許如果我在這裡按下促銷按鈕,也許我們會得到其中一些客戶,是的——但從長遠來看,我們可能會失去他們。所以像這樣的時代加速了事情。

  • Yes. So I like where we are at -- it's not a complete surprise with you said, hey, if these things happen all at once, here is what it could look like? Yes, did we have scenarios internally say, look, if COVID is -- got a big (inaudible) in the housing market, if we have a recession, and the housing market has a dramatic fall, what do things look like? Kind of what we thought. Yes. Not too different.

    是的。所以我喜歡我們所處的位置——你說這並不完全令人驚訝,嘿,如果這些事情同時發生,它會是什麼樣子?是的,我們是否有內部場景說,看,如果 COVID 在房地產市場上有很大(聽不清),如果我們有經濟衰退,並且房地產市場急劇下跌,情況會怎樣?有點像我們的想法。是的。沒有太大的不同。

  • And -- but I think they'll look different. I mean, as you see kind of this next big evolution of our brand, right? That's the thing. I think about climbing a mountain, right, and you get to base camp and then you kind of go up a little and you kind of return to base camp and you're out there for a while and then you make the next trip up, right? And you're now at a whole another level. We're about to make one of those next big moves. So if you think about our brand. You think about where we went from kind of 2001 to kind of 2008 and '09, and then we hit that difficult period. And then you think about how we've pivoted from there and what the next part of the climb was and how we differentiated ourselves in a massive way. And then kind of the reset in kind of '16, '17 and how we repositioned ourselves for the next part of the climb.

    而且 - 但我認為它們看起來會有所不同。我的意思是,正如您所看到的,我們品牌的下一次重大演變,對嗎?就是這樣。我想爬山,對吧,然後你到達大本營,然後你稍微上升一點,然後你回到大本營,你在那里呆了一會兒,然後你進行下一次旅行,正確的?而你現在處於另一個層次。我們即將採取下一個重大舉措。因此,如果您考慮我們的品牌。你想想我們從 2001 年到 2008 年和 09 年的情況,然後我們遇到了那個困難時期。然後你會想到我們是如何從那裡轉向的,接下來的攀登部分是什麼,以及我們如何以一種巨大的方式使自己與眾不同。然後是 16 年、17 年的重置,以及我們如何為接下來的攀登重新定位。

  • So now it's just the next chapter. The next part of the climb. We'll develop a new base camp in this next part of the climb.

    所以現在只是下一章。攀登的下一部分。我們將在接下來的攀登部分開發一個新的大本營。

  • In the meantime, between that, there is a crazy period like a pandemic. So that's -- I don't know, that just doesn't come along. So how that affects us and just watching through the pandemic and seeing to the other side of that correctly and strategically, not getting sucked into being tactical.

    與此同時,在那之間,有一個像大流行病一樣瘋狂的時期。所以那是——我不知道,只是沒有出現。那麼這對我們有何影響,只是通過大流行觀察並正確和戰略性地看到它的另一面,而不是陷入戰術。

  • There's just no way that once people start pushing the promotional buttons that they're pushing that they're not going to push it more times. And that's not going to be more e-mails, and it's not going to be -- look at the e-mails you get and look at them and the timing of a quarter, okay? If you think about our business and say, okay, they're driving demands that they have to shift to a customer's home or they're having sales in an outlet warehouse sales thing. Those are all things and try to hit a number within a quarter. We just don't play that game. That's a game of kind of running around in place.

    一旦人們開始按下他們正在按下的促銷按鈕,他們就不會按下更多次。這不會是更多的電子郵件,也不會是——看看你收到的電子郵件,看看它們和一個季度的時間,好嗎?如果您考慮我們的業務並說,好吧,他們正在推動他們必須轉移到客戶家中的需求,或者他們在直銷倉庫銷售中進行銷售。這些都是事情,並嘗試在四分之一內達到一個數字。我們只是不玩那個遊戲。那是一種原地跑來跑去的遊戲。

  • And everybody looked great during the pandemic. Hats off. Let's see where everybody is in the next couple of years once we've cycled away from this and we get through this difficult time.

    在大流行期間,每個人看起來都很棒。脫帽致敬。讓我們看看在我們擺脫這種情況並度過這段困難時期後,未來幾年每個人的處境。

  • I like the game we're playing. I like the strategy we have. And it's just a completely different game than the one everyone else is playing.

    我喜歡我們正在玩的遊戲。我喜歡我們的策略。這是一款與其他人正在玩的遊戲完全不同的遊戲。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Cristina Fernández with Telsey Advisory Group.

    克里斯蒂娜·費爾南德斯 (Cristina Fernández) 與 Telsey Advisory Group。

  • Cristina Fernández - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Cristina Fernández - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I have two questions. The first one is on the strategic investments you're making on the global expansion. How should we think about that ramp over the next couple of years in relation to the 150 basis points or [$45 million] this year? I guess, should we think about it sort of linear with store openings? Or are there a lot of up-front investments you're making now or last year?

    我有兩個問題。第一個是關於您在全球擴張中進行的戰略投資。我們應該如何考慮與今年 150 個基點或 [4500 萬美元] 相關的未來幾年的增長?我想,我們是否應該考慮它與商店開張呈線性關係?或者您現在或去年是否進行了大量前期投資?

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I think it's -- think about it in relation to pace and how fast do we go and how many markets we're going to open at the time. And then I think about it just based on where revenues are, right, because the spend is going to be the spend, right? So we happen to be making the spend when our revenues are kind of [trough] revenue trends and things like that. So as a percent to that revenue, it's 150 basis points. To the percent of another number, it's 75 basis points.

    是的。我認為這是——考慮一下與速度、我們走多快以及我們當時要打開多少市場有關的問題。然後我只是根據收入的位置來考慮它,對吧,因為支出將成為支出,對吧?因此,當我們的收入有點 [低谷] 收入趨勢之類的時候,我們恰好在支出。因此,作為該收入的百分比,它是 150 個基點。對於另一個數字的百分比,它是 75 個基點。

  • So you can kind of assume and do that math. The spend isn't going to be different, right? It's based on the basis points we gave you, you can back into what the dollars are. And then you can say, okay, if their business inflects, whether it's the second half of this year or next year, when the housing market changes and -- I mean, we'll inflect to some degree, no matter what the housing market does.

    所以你可以假設並做那個數學。支出不會有什麼不同,對吧?它基於我們給你的基點,你可以回到美元。然後你可以說,好吧,如果他們的業務發生變化,無論是今年下半年還是明年,當房地產市場發生變化時——我的意思是,無論房地產市場如何,我們都會在某種程度上發生變化做。

  • What we're doing from a product point of view, the redesign of our source books and the change-out, the representation of our galleries and so on and so forth. That's not going to be 0. Okay. Unless -- the only way that's 0 is that the economy gets really bad, right? If the whole banking prices falls apart, and we have another kind of meltdown that takes housing farther down, right?

    我們從產品的角度來看正在做的事情,我們的原始資料書籍的重新設計和變更,我們畫廊的代表等等。那不會是 0。好的。除非 - 為 0 的唯一方法是經濟變得非常糟糕,對嗎?如果整個銀行的價格都崩潰了,我們又會遇到另一種崩潰,讓房價進一步下跌,對吧?

  • But at some point here, we're going to cycle the bottom and things are going to change. And so -- but we have an inflection point that's going to be some number. You can just take the investment and probably take a look at like, okay, what are they spending directionally based on all the things you're working on and a number of galleries are opening and then you'll be able to extrapolate that, and we'll give you some kind of guidance long term. But you're looking at it, I'd say, kind of through the -- maybe the worst lens, things don't get worse in the economy; maybe the worst lens, you're going to live through it. Other times, it's going to look like a much smaller.

    但在某個時候,我們將在底部循環,事情將會發生變化。所以 - 但我們有一個拐點,這將是一些數字。你可以只接受投資,可能會看看,好吧,他們根據你正在做的所有事情定向支出了多少,一些畫廊正在開業,然後你就可以推斷出這一點,並且我們會給你一些長期的指導。但是你正在看它,我會說,有點通過 - 也許是最糟糕的鏡頭,經濟中的情況並沒有變得更糟;也許是最糟糕的鏡頭,你會經歷它。其他時候,它看起來會小得多。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Brad Thomas with KeyBanc.

    布拉德·托馬斯與 KeyBanc。

  • Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Just a couple of housekeeping questions for me. Just one more on the first quarter guidance. Gary, you mentioned the trends had decelerated, I think, about 8 points since some of the banking news was coming out. Just -- is the guidance reflective of kind of the run rate of trends? Or is this how things are playing out quarter-to-date? Just trying to get a better sense of where demand is tracking and how you all are factoring that in the guidance.

    我只是幾個家務問題。關於第一季度指導的更多信息。加里,你提到趨勢已經減速,我認為,自從一些銀行業新聞發布以來,大約下降了 8 個點。只是 - 指導是否反映了趨勢的運行率?或者這就是本季度迄今為止的情況?只是想更好地了解需求跟踪的位置以及你們如何在指南中考慮到這一點。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Again, just to be clear, I said it kind of tranche to that 8 points and then it's kind of come back, right? So right now, I think that there was a shock and there was a pullback. Things look to be stabilized, right, in the banking world right now, at least for now, for at least what we know.

    是的。再次說明一下,我說的是那 8 分的部分,然後又回來了,對嗎?所以現在,我認為出現了衝擊並且出現了回調。目前,銀行業的情況似乎趨於穩定,至少目前如此,至少就我們所知而言如此。

  • A little odd. I've never seen the government kind of directs the top banks to lend money to the other banks for 120 days. It's a little weird. If what's the implication of that, what does that really look like? Is that a permanent loan? Is the other banks going to be able to survive without that loan? For how long? Will anybody put their money back in those other banks? Did the banks [who] lend them $30 billion, are they going to own those banks? There's a lot of really questions that are unanswered, right, if you just stop and think about that.

    有點奇怪。我從未見過政府指示頂級銀行向其他銀行借錢 120 天。這有點奇怪。如果這意味著什麼,那麼它到底是什麼樣子的?那是永久貸款嗎?如果沒有這筆貸款,其他銀行能否生存?多長時間?有人會把錢放回其他銀行嗎? [誰] 借給他們 300 億美元的銀行,他們會擁有這些銀行嗎?有很多真正的問題沒有答案,對吧,如果你停下來想一想。

  • So the banking prices unfold to be something worse, I think it can. That's why I think that when I talk to smart people I know, (inaudible) yelling out to just calm everybody down, and just tell everyone that the government -- that your money is safe for at least a year, but not let it be kind of unknown. If that just going to give people to keep moving money around it, that's going to create instability in the banking sector and create more issues.

    因此,我認為銀行業的價格會變得更糟。這就是為什麼我認為當我和我認識的聰明人交談時,(聽不清)大聲喊叫讓每個人都冷靜下來,然後告訴每個人政府——你的錢至少在一年內是安全的,但不要讓它成為現實有點未知。如果這只是讓人們繼續圍繞它轉移資金,那將在銀行業造成不穩定並產生更多問題。

  • So a lot is going to be determined on what really unfolds here, but it looks like the shock was also temporal. It looks like that people have returned to their habits. And you usually need something meaningful to change consumer's habits. So they changed for a short period of time, they kind of look normal.

    因此,很多事情將取決於這裡真正發生的事情,但看起來震驚也是暫時的。看起來人們已經恢復了他們的習慣。你通常需要一些有意義的東西來改變消費者的習慣。所以他們在短時間內改變了,他們看起來很正常。

  • But then again, we're in a period where, I mean, if you think about the yields and stuff, like the change in the forecast on the interest rate hikes and things like that. I mean from one day to the next, it was crazy how the markets were pricing in, where interest rates were going, and suddenly, it completely flips just because of the banks have got shut down over that 1 weekend and everybody believes that -- a lot of people believe -- I mean, think about this, like Goldman Sachs that we -- they weren't going to raise rates at all.

    但話又說回來,我們正處於一個時期,我的意思是,如果你考慮收益率之類的東西,比如加息預測的變化等等。我的意思是,從前一天到後一天,市場定價的方式、利率的走向都非常瘋狂,突然間,它完全翻轉,僅僅因為銀行在那個週末關閉了,而且每個人都相信——很多人相信——我的意思是,想想這個,就像我們的高盛一樣——他們根本不會加息。

  • Goldman Sachs pretty, yes, credible big bank. And just a week before everybody thought that we were at about 50 basis points and another 50 basis points and maybe even higher than that. So it's just a lot of unanswered questions from a macro point of view that you have to consider. So we are kind of guiding based on what we know today. If it's meaningfully worse, we'll let you know. We've got some flexibility within our numbers to navigate through this. And it's just a very uncertain time.

    高盛漂亮,是的,值得信賴的大銀行。就在一周之前,每個人都認為我們處於大約 50 個基點和另外 50 個基點,甚至可能更高。因此,從宏觀角度來看,您必須考慮的只是很多懸而未決的問題。因此,我們在某種程度上是根據我們今天所知道的進行指導。如果情況嚴重惡化,我們會通知您。我們在我們的數字中有一些靈活性來解決這個問題。這只是一個非常不確定的時期。

  • So if you sit around and just obsessed about it, you're not going to be obsessed about building your brand and growing your business. So -- like I know I'm talking a lot about it as we think about it and just giving my view, but it's not what we obsess about here. And we obsess about the things that are in the letter and in that order. And we have some extraordinarily exciting stuff about to happen here that, I believe leapfrogged this brand and business to another level. So we're really excited about that.

    因此,如果您只是坐在那裡沉迷於此,您就不會沉迷於建立品牌和發展業務。所以 - 就像我知道的那樣,當我們考慮它並只是給出我的觀點時我正在談論它,但這不是我們在這裡所關注的。我們著迷於信中和順序中的內容。我們將在這裡發生一些非常令人興奮的事情,我相信這些事情將把這個品牌和業務提升到另一個層次。所以我們對此感到非常興奮。

  • In the meantime, we're trying to navigate through the worst luxury housing market I've ever seen, and volatile stock market and recent banking crisis and all kinds of other things. So yes, just -- yes. There's not going to be kind of any details here that unlock any new view, I have got to say that. If it's not in the letter, it's probably not big news to us.

    與此同時,我們正在努力度過我所見過的最糟糕的豪宅市場、動蕩的股市和最近的銀行業危機以及各種其他事情。所以是的,只是 - 是的。這裡不會有任何細節可以解鎖任何新視圖,我不得不說。如果它不在信中,那對我們來說可能不是什麼大新聞。

  • Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

    Bradley Bingham Thomas - Director & Equity Research Analyst

  • Understood. One item that we didn't talk about a lot on this call is the Guesthouse. Any update you could share on learnings that you've had since it's been opened.

    明白了。我們在這次電話會議上沒有談論太多的項目是賓館。您可以分享自打開以來您所獲得的學習的任何更新。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. It's open. We're happy about it. We've had great -- yes. It's created the right kind of conversation around the brand, and that's what we're trying to do. And our second one is under construction in Aspen, this is first, the only 2. We've got the pipeline and so nothing really new. We're open, functioning, running, all good, except we had a (inaudible). So we had to shut down some rooms for a little while. But it's our new business, different things go wrong and you learn about. But I think we're tremendously proud of it. And we think everybody who stayed there, I believe, has had a great experience (inaudible) feedback.

    是的。它是開放的。我們很高興。我們過得很好——是的。它圍繞品牌創造了正確的對話,這就是我們正在努力做的事情。我們的第二個正在阿斯彭建設,這是第一個,也是唯一的兩個。我們有管道,所以沒有什麼新鮮事。我們是開放的,運作的,運行的,一切都很好,除了我們有一個(聽不清)。所以我們不得不暫時關閉一些房間。但這是我們的新業務,不同的事情出了問題,你會了解到。但我認為我們為此感到無比自豪。我相信,我們認為住在那裡的每個人都有很好的體驗(聽不清)反饋。

  • I think we're in -- the right conversation is happening about the Guesthouse today. And by the way, we haven't marketed it at all. We've sent an initial e-mail. So we're about ready to talk about it a little bit more, get out of the winter months where New York is kind of quiet, springtime. The trees will start having leaves on the rooftop again, it will bring a little bit more attention to it, maybe send out an e-mail, video, some things like that. But yes -- but it's not something we're massively focused on. It's open. It's -- so far, it's done what we intended it to do. We believe it's elevated the RH brand. It's brought the RH brand into a conversation at levels of luxury that we weren't in that conversation before.

    我認為我們在——今天關於 Guesthouse 的對話是正確的。順便說一句,我們根本沒有營銷它。我們已經發送了一封初始電子郵件。所以我們準備多談談它,離開紐約有點安靜的冬天,春天。屋頂上的樹又開始長葉子了,這會引起更多的關注,也許會發送電子郵件、視頻等類似的東西。但是是的——但這不是我們非常關注的事情。它是開放的。到目前為止,它已經完成了我們的預期。我們相信它提升了 RH 品牌。它將 RH 品牌帶入了我們之前從未參與過的奢侈品級別的對話。

  • So I think it's -- to the people who've come, and many global CEOs of luxury brands have brought their teams for tour the Guesthouse and -- uninvited. Just knocking on our door and stuff, reaching out. So -- and I think it's created the right conversations with the right people. Yes. I think people are more aware of us now and maybe have more of a level of respect to what we're capable of, about the quality of the work we can do. And it's just another step, another stepping stone as we go, and climb this mountain.

    所以我認為這是 - 對於來過的人來說,許多奢侈品牌的全球首席執行官都帶著他們的團隊參觀了賓館並且 - 不請自來。只是敲我們的門什麼的,伸出手。所以 - 我認為它與合適的人進行了正確的對話。是的。我認為人們現在更加了解我們,並且可能更加尊重我們的能力,以及我們可以做的工作的質量。這只是我們攀登這座山的又一步,又一塊墊腳石。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • There are no further questions at this time. I'll now turn the call back over to Gary Friedman for closing remarks.

    目前沒有其他問題。我現在將電話轉回給加里·弗里德曼 (Gary Friedman),請其作結束語。

  • Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

    Gary G. Friedman - Chairman & CEO

  • Thank you, everybody, for your time and interest, and we look forward to speaking with you soon.

    謝謝大家的時間和興趣,我們期待盡快與您交談。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。