萊德系統 (R) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Please stand by. Good morning and welcome to the Ryder System fourth quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. All lines are and only mode until after the presentation. Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder.

請稍候。早安，歡迎參加 Ryder System 2024 年第四季財報發布電話會議。在演示結束前，所有線路均為且僅為模式。今天的通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）現在，我想介紹 Ryder 投資者關係副總裁 Calene Candela 女士。

Ms. Candela, you may begin.

坎德拉女士，您可以開始啦。

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Ryder's fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meeting of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Ryder 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我想提醒您，在本次演講中，您將聽到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》會議中的一些前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive market, political and regulatory factors.

這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受不確定性和情況變化的影響。由於經濟、商業、競爭市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。

More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission which are available on Ryder's website.

有關這些因素的更多詳細資訊以及每個非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對照表包含在今天上午的收益報告、收益電話會議演示文稿以及 Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，這些文件可在 Ryder 的網站上查閱。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; John Diez, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Cristy Gallo-Aquino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

參加今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長羅伯特‧桑切斯 (Robert Sanchez)；總裁兼營運長約翰‧迪茲 (John Diez)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂·加洛·阿基諾（Cristy Gallo-Aquino）。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens；以及供應鏈解決方案和專用運輸解決方案總裁史蒂夫·森辛（Steve Sensing）今天參加了電話會議，並在演講結束後回答問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

現在，我將把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Before we begin, I'd like to recognize John Diez, who is joining this morning's call in his new role as President and Chief Operating Officer. Most of you already know John as he was Ryder's EVP and CFO from 2021 to 2024.

大家早安，感謝大家的收看。在我們開始之前，我想先感謝約翰·迪茲，他將以總裁兼首席營運官的新身份參加今天上午的電話會議。你們大多數人已經認識約翰，因為他在 2021 年至 2024 年期間擔任 Ryder 的執行副總裁兼財務長。

Replacing John as Chief Financial Officer is Christy Gallo-Aquino. Christy is a 20-year Ryder veteran, most recently serving as SVP and Controller, and prior to that as Chief Financial Officer for FMS. At Ryder, we're committed to developing talent at all levels of the organization, and I'm extremely pleased that we have such qualified internal candidates to fill these critical leadership roles.

克里斯蒂·加洛·阿基諾 (Christy Gallo-Aquino) 接替約翰擔任財務長。克里斯蒂 (Christy) 在 Ryder 工作了 20 年，最近擔任高級副總裁兼財務主管，之前擔任 FMS 的財務長。在萊德，我們致力於培養組織各個層面的人才，我非常高興我們有如此合格的內部候選人來擔任這些關鍵的領導職務。

So with that said, I'll begin today's call by sharing some key highlights from 2024 and providing you with a strategic update. Christy will then take you through our fourth quarter results, which were in line with our forecast and up versus prior year.

因此，在今天的電話會議上，我將分享 2024 年的一些關鍵亮點並為您提供策略更新。克里斯蒂將向您介紹我們第四季度的業績，該業績符合我們的預測並且比去年同期有所上升。

We are pleased to report that this quarter is the first quarter in the last eight with year over year comparable earnings growth driven by double-digit earnings growth in each of our business segments. John will then review capital expenditures and our increasing capital deployment capacity. I'll then review our 2025 outlook and discuss how we expect to build on the momentum of our transformed and cycle-tested business model.

我們很高興地報告，本季是過去八個季度中第一個實現同比增長的季度，這得益於我們各業務部門的兩位數盈利增長。然後，約翰將回顧資本支出和我們不斷增加的資本部署能力。然後，我將回顧我們的 2025 年展望，並討論我們如何期望利用我們經過轉型和週期測試的商業模式的勢頭。

Let's begin with some key highlights from 2024 on slide 4. I'm extremely proud of our team for delivering solid results throughout 2024, despite challenging freight market conditions. The business continues to outperform prior cycles, driven by our high-quality contractual portfolio and reflecting the actions we've taken under our balanced growth strategy to de-risk the business, increase the return profile and accelerate growth in our asset-light SCS and DTS businesses.

讓我們從幻燈片 4 上的 2024 年的一些主要亮點開始。儘管貨運市場條件嚴峻，但我們的團隊在 2024 年仍然取得了穩健的業績，我對此感到非常自豪。受我們高品質合約組合的推動，業務表現繼續優於前幾個週期，這反映了我們根據平衡成長策略採取的行動，以降低業務風險、提高回報率並加速輕資產 SCS 和 DTS 業務的成長。

During 2024, the business generated comparable earnings per share of $12 which is in line with our initial forecast and significantly above the $5.95 of comparable earnings per share generated in 2018 prior to our business transformation.

2024 年，該業務產生的每股可比收益為 12 美元，符合我們最初的預測，且遠高於我們業務轉型之前 2018 年產生的每股可比收益 5.95 美元。

The business also delivered adjusted return on equity of 16%, which is in line with our expectations for an extended freight cycle downturn and continues to demonstrate the resilience of our transformed business model. Operating revenue grew 8%, reflecting the Cardinal and IFS acquisitions.

該業務還實現了 16% 的調整後股本回報率，這符合我們對長期貨運週期低迷的預期，並繼續證明我們轉型後的商業模式的韌性。營業收入成長 8%，反映了 Cardinal 和 IFS 的收購。

We're encouraged by the strong performance of our transformed business model and believe that executing on our balanced growth strategy will continue to deliver higher highs and higher lows over the cycle.

我們轉型後的商業模式的強勁表現令我們感到鼓舞，並相信執行我們的平衡成長策略將在整個週期內繼續帶來更高的高點和更高的低點。

Slide 5 provides key updates on the ongoing progress of our balanced growth strategy. Our transform business model continues to drive out performance relative to prior cycles. The integration of our recent acquisitions is on track.

幻燈片 5 提供了我們平衡成長策略持續進展的重要更新。我們的轉型業務模式持續推動相對於前幾個週期的績效成長。我們近期收購的整合工作正按計畫進行。

As you may recall, we completed the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics on February 1, 2024, enabling growth and further strengthening our position as a leading provider of customized dedicated transportation solutions.

您可能還記得，我們​​於 2024 年 2 月 1 日完成了對 Cardinal Logistics 的收購，從而促進了增長並進一步鞏固了我們作為定制專用運輸解決方案領先提供商的地位。

On November first of 2023, we completed the acquisition of IFS which added co-packaging and co-manufacturing capabilities in SCS, primarily supporting our CPG business. We continue to see long-term growth opportunities in all three of our business segments supported by secular trends that favor outsourcing decisions, large addressable markets and the value of our solutions.

2023 年 11 月 1 日，我們完成了對 IFS 的收購，這增加了 SCS 的共同包裝和共同製造能力，主要支援我們的 CPG 業務。我們繼續看到，我們三個業務部門都存在長期成長機會，這得益於有利於外包決策、龐大潛在市場和我們解決方案的價值的長期趨勢。

Generating ROE of 16% during an extended freight cycle downturn reflects the benefits of our initiatives focused on enhancing returns. The strength of our contractual businesses continues to demonstrate the enhanced quality of the portfolio and increased resilience of our business model.

在貨運週期長期低迷期間實現 16% 的 ROE，反映了我們專注於提高回報的舉措所帶來的好處。我們合約業務的強勁表現持續證明我們的投資組合品質有所提高，且業務模式的彈性有所增強。

The current phase of our balanced growth strategy is focused on creating compelling value through operational excellence, investing in customer centric innovation, further improving full cycle returns and generating profitable growth. We remain confident that continuing to execute our strategy while positioning ourselves for the cycle upturn will result in further enhanced full cycle returns.

我們平衡成長策略的現階段專注於透過卓越的營運創造引人注目的價值，投資於以客戶為中心的創新，進一步提高全週期回報並實現盈利性成長。我們堅信，繼續執行我們的策略，同時為週期好轉做好準備，將進一步提高全週期回報。

The earnings power of our contractual portfolio continues to provide us with increased capital deployment capacity, which we expect to use to support profitable growth and return capital to shareholders. During 2024, we returned $456 million in cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

我們合約組合的獲利能力繼續為我們提供增強的資本部署能力，我們希望利用這些能力來支持獲利成長並向股東返還資本。2024 年，我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了 4.56 億美元現金。

We repurchased 2.5 million shares and increased our dividend by 14%. Since 2021, we have repurchased approximately 19% of our shares outstanding and increased the average dividend growth rate to 12%.

我們回購了 250 萬股，並將股利增加了 14%。自 2021 年以來，我們已回購了約 19% 的流通股，並將平均股息成長率提高至 12%。

Slide 6 illustrates how key financial and operating metrics have improved since 2018, reflecting the execution of our strategy. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS.

幻燈片 6 展示了自 2018 年以來關鍵財務和營運指標的改善，反映了我們策略的執行情況。2018年，在實施平衡成長策略之前，我們84億美元的收入中大部分來自FMS。

Ryder generated comparable earnings per share of $5.95 and return on equity of 13%. FMS generated pre-tax earnings of $340 million. And SCS and DTS combined generated $191 million in pre-tax earnings. Operating cash flow was $1.7 billion. This was during peak freight cycle conditions.

萊德的每股收益為 5.95 美元，股本回報率為 13%。FMS 的稅前利潤為 3.4 億美元。SCS 和 DTS 合計創造了 1.91 億美元的稅前利潤。經營現金流為17億美元。此時正值貨運高峰期。

In 2024, a year we believe will represent trough freight cycle conditions. Our transformed business model generated meaningfully higher earnings and returns than it did during the 2018 peak. Through organic growth, strategic acquisitions and innovative technology, we have shifted our revenue mix towards Supply Chain and Dedicated with 61% of 2024 revenue coming from these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018.

我們認為，2024 年將是貨運週期的低谷。我們轉型後的商業模式產生的收益和回報比2018年的高峰期有顯著提高。透過有機成長、策略性收購和創新技術，我們將營收結構轉向供應鏈和專用業務，2024 年 61% 的營收來自這些輕資產業務，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。

2024 comparable earnings per share were $12 more than double 2018 comparable earnings per share of $5.95. ROE was 16% above the 13% generated during the prior cycle peak. FMS pre-tax earnings in 2024 were 1.5 times higher than in 2018, and SCS and DTS earnings were 2.4 times higher, reflecting growth in our returns focus.

2024 年每股可比收益為 12 美元，比 2018 年每股可比收益 5.95 美元的兩倍多。 ROE 比上一周期高峰 13% 高出 16%。2024 年 FMS 稅前收益比 2018 年高出 1.5 倍，SCS 和 DTS 收益高出 2.4 倍，反映出我們對回報關注度的成長。

As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses, operating cash flow has increased 32% from $1.7 billion in 2018 to $2.3 billion in 2024. As shown here, the business is outperforming prior cycles, even when comparing prior peak to an expected trough.

由於我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務的獲利成長，營運現金流從 2018 年的 17 億美元成長了 32% 至 2024 年的 23 億美元。如圖所示，即使將先前的峰值與預期的低谷進行比較，該業務的表現也優於先前的週期。

We are proud of the results of our transformation thus far, and we are confident that continued execution and momentum from multi-year initiatives positions us well for 2025 and beyond.

我們為迄今為止的轉型成果感到自豪，並堅信持續執行和多年期計劃的勢頭將使我們在 2025 年及以後佔據有利地位。

I'll now turn the call over to Christy to review our fourth quarter performance.

現在我將把電話轉給克里斯蒂來回顧我們第四季的表現。

Thanks, Robert. Total company results for the fourth quarter are on page 7. Operating revenue of $2.6 billion in the fourth quarter, up 7% from the prior year primarily reflects acquisitions. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.45 in the fourth quarter, up from $2.95 in the prior year. The increase reflects double-digit earnings growth in all business segments.

謝謝，羅伯特。第四季的公司整體業績請見第 7 頁。第四季營業收入為 26 億美元，較上年增長 7%，主要反映了收購。第四季持續經營每股可比收益為 3.45 美元，高於去年同期的 2.95 美元。這一成長反映了所有業務部門的兩位數獲利成長。

Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 16% as previously discussed. Free cash flow increased to positive $133 million from negative $54 million in the prior year, reflecting lower capital expenditures partially offset by lower proceeds from the sale of used vehicles and lower cash from operating activities.

如同先前所討論的，我們的主要財務指標——股本回報率——是 16%。自由現金流從上年的負 5,400 萬美元增至正 1.33 億美元，反映出資本支出減少，但二手車銷售收益減少和經營活動現金減少部分抵銷了這一減少。

Turning to fleet management results on page 8. Fleet management solutions operating revenue increased 3% due to higher ChoiceLease revenue, partially offset by lower rental demand. ChoiceLease revenue grew 8%, with about 40% coming from organic lease revenue growth and the remainder from inter-segment lease revenue from Cardinal vehicles operating in our dedicated segment.

轉到第 8 頁的車隊管理結果。車隊管理解決方案營運收入由於 ChoiceLease 收入增加而增加 3%，但租賃需求下降部分抵消了這一增長。ChoiceLease 營收成長 8%，其中約 40% 來自有機租賃收入成長，其餘則來自我們專用部門營運的 Cardinal 車輛的部門間租賃收入。

Pre-tax earnings in FMS were $152 million up year over year, primarily reflecting higher ChoiceLease performance, partially offset by lower rental demand. Rental utilization on the power fleet was 73%, down from 75% in the prior year.

FMS 的稅前利潤較去年同期增加了 1.52 億美元，主要反映了 ChoiceLease 業績的提高，但部分抵消了租賃需求的下降。電力車隊的租賃利用率為 73%，低於去年的 75%。

Rental results for the quarter continue to reflect market conditions that remain weak. Although, we did see a typical seasonal improvement in rental demand from Q3 to Q4. Power fleet pricing was down 3%.

本季的租賃結果持續反映出市場狀況依然疲軟。儘管如此，我們確實看到第三季到第四季的租賃需求出現了典型的季節性改善。電力車隊價格下降了 3%。

Fleet management EBT as a percent of operating revenue was a solid 11.6% in the fourth quarter as ChoiceLease earnings growth more than offset the impact from weak conditions in rental and used vehicle sales. For full year 2024, EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 10.1%, in line with our expectations given where we are in the freight cycle but below are recently increased long-term targets of low [key].

由於 ChoiceLease 的獲利成長超過了租賃和二手車銷售疲軟狀況的影響，車隊管理 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比在第四季度穩定上漲了 11.6%。2024 年全年，息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比為 10.1%，符合我們考慮到貨運週期所處的預期，但以下是最近提高的低長期目標[鑰匙]。

Page 9 highlights used vehicle sales results for the quarter. Year over year pricing declines continued to narrow in the fourth quarter. Used tractor proceeds declined 13% and used truck proceeds declined 12%. On a sequential basis, proceeds for tractors decrease 2% and proceeds for trucks decrease 3%.

第 9 頁重點介紹本季二手車銷售業績。第四季價格年減幅持續收窄。二手拖拉機收益下降 13%，二手卡車收益下降 12%。以環比計算，拖拉機的收益下降 2%，卡車的收益下降 3%。

During the quarter, we sold 4,700 used vehicles, unchanged sequentially and down versus prior year. Used vehicle inventory decreased to 9,000 vehicles at year end and was in line with our targeted inventory range.

本季度，我們銷售了 4,700 輛二手車，與上一季度持平，但比去年同期有所下降。截至年底，二手車庫存量減少至 9,000 輛，符合我們的目標庫存範圍。

Although, used vehicle pricing declined, proceeds remain above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 24 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information.

儘管二手車價格下降，但收益仍高於用於折舊目的的殘值估算。附錄中的幻燈片 24 提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收益和當前剩餘價值估算，供您參考。

Turning to supply chain on page 10. Operating revenue increased 4%, driven by the IFS and Cardinal acquisitions, partially offset by lower sales activity reflecting freight cycle conditions and economic uncertainty.

轉到第 10 頁的供應鏈。受 IFS 和 Cardinal 收購的推動，營業收入成長了 4%，但反映貨運週期狀況和經濟不確定性的銷售活動減少部分抵銷了這一成長。

Supply chain earnings increased 58% from prior year, primarily reflecting stronger omni-channel retail performance driven by higher customer volumes and improved productivity gains. Supply chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was a strong 8.9% in the quarters and was 8.4% for full year 2024, in line with the segment's long-term target of high single digits.

供應鏈收益較上年增長 58%，主要反映了受客戶數量增加和生產力提高推動的全通路零售業績強勁增長。供應鏈息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比在各季度中強勁上漲 8.9%，2024 年全年上漲 8.4%，與該部門長期高個位數目標一致。

Moving to dedicate it on page 11. Operating revenue increased 46%, reflecting the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics. Dedicated EBT increased 10% from prior year, reflecting the acquisition. [EPS] results also continue to benefit from strong performance of our legacy dedicated business, reflecting pricing discipline as well as favorable market conditions for recruiting and retaining professional drivers.

移至第 11 頁進行特別討論。營業收入成長了 46%，反映了對 Cardinal Logistics 的收購。專用 EBT 較前一年增加 10%，反映了收購的影響。 [EPS] 業績也繼續受益於我們傳統專職業務的強勁表現，反映了定價紀律以及招募和留住專業司機的有利市場條件。

Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 7.1% in the quarter. For the full year, it was 6.7%, below the segment's long-term high single digit target, reflecting acquisition integration costs.

本季專用 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 7.1%。就全年而言，該部門的利潤率為 6.7%，低於長期較高的個位數目標，反映了收購整合成本。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review capital spending and capital deployment capacity.

現在我將把電話轉給約翰，以審查資本支出和資本部署能力。

Turning to slide 12. 2024 lease capital spending of $2 billion was below prior year reflecting lower sales activity. In 2025, we're forecasting lease spending to increase to $2.2 billion, reflecting higher replacement activity. We expect the ending lease fleet to remain level year over year, reflective of the freight cycle.

轉到投影片 12。2024 年租賃資本支出為 20 億美元，低於前一年，反映銷售活動減少。到 2025 年，我們預測租賃支出將增加到 22 億美元，這反映出更高的替換活動。我們預計期末租賃船隊規模將比去年同期保持不變，以反映貨運週期。

2024 rental capital spending of $525 million was above prior year as planned, reflecting higher replacement activity. In 2025, we're forecasting lower rental capital spending of $375 million, reflecting lower plan replacement activity.

2024 年租賃資本支出為 5.25 億美元，高於去年的計劃，反映出更換活動的增加。到 2025 年，我們預計租賃資本支出將減少 3.75 億美元，反映出計畫替換活動的減少。

Our ending rental fleet is expected to decrease 6% during 2025, and our average rental fleet is expected to be down 4%. The run-off fleet remains well below peak levels as we managed through an extended market slowdown. In rental, we continue to shift capital spending to trucks versus tractors as trucks have benefited from relatively stable demand and pricing trends.

我們的期末租賃車隊數量預計將在 2025 年下降 6%，平均租賃車隊數量預計將下降 4%。由於我們成功度過了長期的市場低迷期，退出的船隊規模仍遠低於峰值。在租賃方面，我們繼續將資本支出轉向卡車而非拖拉機，因為卡車受益於相對穩定的需求和定價趨勢。

At year end 2024, trucks represent approximately 60% of our rental fleet. Our full year 2025 capital expenditures forecast of approximately $2.7 billion is in line with prior year. We expect approximately $500 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2025 as we did not anticipate a meaningful recovery in market conditions. Full year 2025 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.2 billion.

截至 2024 年底，卡車約占我們租賃車隊的 60%。我們預測 2025 年全年資本支出約 27 億美元，與前一年一致。我們預計 2025 年二手車銷售收益將達到約 5 億美元，因為我們預計市場狀況不會有明顯復甦。2025 年全年淨資本支出預計約 22 億美元。

Turning to page 13. In addition to increasing the earnings and return profile of the business, our transformed contractual portfolio is also generating significant operating cash flow. Improving the overall cash generation profile of the business is one of the essential elements of our balanced growth strategy.

翻到第 13 頁。除了提高業務的獲利和回報狀況之外，我們轉型後的合約組合還產生了可觀的經營現金流。改善企業整體現金創造狀況是我們平衡成長策略的重要要素之一。

Better earnings performance is driving higher cash flow generation and in turn is delevering our balance sheet at a more rapid pace. This momentum is creating incremental debt capacity, given our target leverage range of between 2.5 and 3 times.

獲利表現越好，現金流就越高，反過來，我們的資產負債表就會以更快的速度去槓桿。鑑於我們的目標槓桿率範圍為 2.5 至 3 倍，這一勢頭正在創造增量債務能力。

As shown on the slide, over a three-year period, we expect to generate approximately $10 billion from operating cash flow and used vehicle sales proceeds. This creates approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity, resulting in $13.5 billion available for capital deployment.

如幻燈片所示，在三年內，我們預計將從經營現金流和二手車銷售收益中產生約 100 億美元。這將產生約 35 億美元的增量債務能力，從而有 135 億美元可用於資本部署。

Over the same three-year period, we estimate approximately $9.2 billion will be deployed for the replacement of lease and rental vehicles and for dividends, leaving around $4.3 billion of capital available for flexible deployment to support growth and return capital to shareholders.

在同一三年期間，我們預計將部署約 92 億美元用於更換租賃和租車車輛以及支付股息，留下約 43 億美元的資本可靈活部署，以支持增長並向股東返還資本。

We estimate about half of this capacity will be used for growth CapEx and the remaining to be available for discretionary share repurchases and strategic acquisitions and investments. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders.

我們估計，其中約一半產能將用於成長資本支出，剩餘產能將用於自由股票回購和策略性收購與投資。我們的資本配置重點保持不變，專注於支持我們的策略，推動長期獲利成長並向股東回報資本。

Our top priority is to invest in organic growth. We have taken a balanced approach to investing, and since 2021 have invested approximately $1.1 billion in strategic M&A and have deployed approximately $950 million for discretionary share repurchases, reducing our share count by 19%.

我們的首要任務是投資有機成長。我們採取了均衡的投資方式，自 2021 年以來已在策略併購上投資了約 11 億美元，並已部署約 9.5 億美元用於自由裁量股票回購，從而將我們的股票數量減少了 19%。

Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 250% at year end, at the bottom end of our target range and continues to provide ample capacity to fund our capital allocation priorities.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，年底槓桿率為 250％，處於我們的目標範圍的底端，並繼續提供充足的能力來資助我們的資本配置重點。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our 2025 outlook.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給羅伯特，討論我們 2025 年的展望。

Slide 14 highlights key aspects of our 2025 outlook. In terms of market assumptions, we're expecting a muted growth environment in 2025, reflecting freight market conditions. The top end of our 2025 forecast range assumes continued contractual earnings growth and a very modest improvement in rental demand later in the year.

幻燈片 14 重點介紹了我們 2025 年展望的關鍵面向。在市場假設方面，我們預期 2025 年的成長環境將會較為溫和，這反映了貨運市場的狀況。我們對 2025 年的預測範圍的最高端假設合約收入繼續增長，並且今年稍後租賃需求將略有改善。

We expect to see typical seasonal patterns in rental most of the year and slightly better than seasonal trends later in the year, reflecting an anticipated slow freight recovery. We also expect rental utilization to improve modestly from the prior year on a 4% smaller average fleet.

我們預計，一年中大部分時間租賃市場將呈現典型的季節性模式，而稍後的租賃市場將略好於季節性趨勢，這反映出預計貨運量將緩慢復甦。我們也預計，在平均車隊規模減少 4% 的情況下，租賃利用率將比去年略有改善。

We remain confident that secular trends continue to favor transportation and logistics outsourcing and that our operational expertise and strategic investments will continue to enable us to deliver increased value to our customers and our shareholders.

我們堅信，長期趨勢將繼續有利於運輸和物流外包，並且我們的營運專業知識和策略投資將繼續使我們能夠為客戶和股東提供更大的價值。

We are assuming a slight increase of 1% in US Class A tractor production in 2025. 2025 gains from the sale of used vehicles are expected to be below 2024 levels. Our full year forecast assumes used vehicle prices remain generally in line with 2024 and above the residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes.

我們假設 2025 年美國 A 級拖拉機產量將小幅增加 1%。我們的全年預測假設二手車價格與 2024 年的價格基本保持一致，且高於用於折舊目的的殘值估算。

In terms of our financial forecast for 2025, operating revenue is expected to grow approximately 2% due to near-term revenue growth headwinds reflective of the freight cycle. 2025 comparable earnings per share is expected to increase by 17% at the high end of our $13 to $14 forecast range as the ongoing structural changes to the business deliver solid contractual earnings growth in a muted market environment.

就我們對 2025 年的財務預測而言，由於反映貨運週期的近期收入成長逆風，預計營業收入將成長約 2%。由於業務的持續結構性變化在低迷的市場環境下帶來穩健的合約收益成長，預計 2025 年每股可比收益將成長 17%，達到我們預測範圍 13 至 14 美元的高點。

ROE is expected to increase to a range of 17% to 18%, reflecting contractual earnings growth. Free cash flow is expected to be between $300 million and $400 million, up from the prior year primarily reflecting lower vehicle CapEx and higher operating cash flow.

預計 ROE 將升至 17% 至 18% 之間，反映合約獲利的成長。自由現金流預計在 3 億至 4 億美元之間，高於上年，主要反映車輛資本支出降低和營運現金流增加。

Overall, we expect to deliver earnings growth and increased returns in 2025, reflecting the strength and durability of our transformed and cycle-tested business model.

總體而言，我們預計 2025 年將實現盈利成長和回報增加，這反映了我們轉型且經過週期考驗的商業模式的實力和持久性。

Slide 15 provides outlook highlights for each of our segments. In FMS, operating revenue growth is expected to be in line with the segment's mid single-digit target reflecting pricing benefits from our initiatives as well as inflationary increases.

幻燈片 15 提供了我們每個部門的前景亮點。在FMS方面，預計營業收入成長將與該部門的中等個位數目標一致，這反映了我們舉措帶來的定價效益以及通膨上漲。

FMS EBT as a percent of operating revenue is expected to be up year over year, but below the segment's low-teens target, reflective of freight cycle timing. We are confident in our ability to reach our long-term EBT target in FMS over time based on the demonstrated earnings power of our contractual ChoiceLease and business and strategic initiatives coupled with the benefits we expect when the market conditions in rental and used vehicle sales recover.

FMS EBT 佔營業收入的百分比預計將同比增長，但低於該部門的低十幾個百分點目標，反映了貨運週期的時間安排。我們有信心，憑藉我們合約 ChoiceLease 和業務及戰略舉措所展現的盈利能力，以及租賃和二手車銷售市場狀況恢復時我們預期的收益，我們能夠隨著時間的推移實現 FMS 的長期 EBT 目標。

SCS operating revenue growth is expected to be below the segment's low double-digit target range due to near-term sales headwinds reflective of the freight cycle and economic uncertainty. SCS EBT percent is expected to be at the segment's high single-digit target range, primarily due to incremental operating efficiencies in our omni-channel retail network.

由於近期銷售逆風（反映出貨運週期和經濟不確定性），SCS 營業收入成長預計將低於該部門的低兩位數目標範圍。SCS 息稅前利潤百分比預計將達到該部門的高個位數目標範圍，這主要歸功於我們全通路零售網路的營運效率提升。

In DTS, operating revenue growth is expected to be below its high single-digit target due to near-term sales headwinds reflective of the freight cycle. DTS EBT as a percent of operating revenue is expected to return to the segment's high single-digit target range in 2025, reflecting incremental acquisition synergies and continued strong performance in our legacy business.

在 DTS 中，由於反映貨運週期的近期銷售逆風，預計營業收入成長將低於其高個位數目標。DTS 息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比預計將在 2025 年恢復到該部門的高個位數目標範圍，這反映了增量收購協同效應和我們傳統業務的持續強勁表現。

We expect to continue share repurchase activity, and we'll continue to manage discretionary spending by leveraging our zero-based budgeting process. Overall, we expect the momentum in our contractual businesses to continue into 2025 and drive earnings growth. We also expect the near-term revenue growth headwinds we are experiencing to begin to dissipate as freight conditions gradually improve.

我們希望繼續進行股票回購活動，並將繼續利用零基預算流程來管理可自由支配的開支。總體而言，我們預計合約業務的動能將持續到 2025 年並推動獲利成長。我們也預計，隨著貨運條件的逐步改善，我們所經歷的近期收入成長阻力將開始消散。

Slide 16 outlines the key changes from 2024 to reach the high-end of our 2025 comparable earnings per share forecast. As previously noted, contractual earnings growth is the key driver of increased comparable earnings per share.

幻燈片 16 概述了從 2024 年開始的關鍵變化，以達到 2025 年可比每股收益預測的高端。如前所述，合約收益成長是每股可比收益增加的主要驅動力。

FMS contractual businesses are expected to contribute $1 in incremental earnings per share, reflecting benefits from our lease pricing and maintenance cost savings initiative. SCS and DTS are expected to contribute $0.85 in incremental earnings per share, reflecting synergies from the Cardinal acquisition and improved performance in omni-channel retail.

FMS 合約業務預計將貢獻每股 1 美元的增量收益，反映了我們的租賃定價和維護成本節約舉措帶來的好處。SCS 和 DTS 預計將貢獻每股 0.85 美元的增量收益，反映出收購 Cardinal 帶來的協同效應以及全通路零售業績的提升。

In FMS, our transactional used vehicle sales and rental businesses are expected to be $0.25 net earnings per share benefit as the impact from a very modest rental recovery later in the year is partially offset by lower year over year used vehicle gains.

在 FMS，我們的二手車銷售和租賃業務預計每股淨收益為 0.25 美元，因為今年稍後租金復甦的溫和影響被二手車同比收益的下降部分抵消。

A $0.10 EPS headwind is expected as a higher tax rate and increased employee compensation costs are partially offset by the benefit of a reduced share count from share repurchase activity. That brings the high end of our 2025 comparable earnings per share forecast to $14 with a range of $13 to $14.

預計每股收益將面臨 0.10 美元的阻力，因為稅率提高和員工薪酬成本增加將部分被股票回購活動帶來的股票數量減少的好處所抵消。這使得我們對 2025 年每股可比收益的預測最高達到 14 美元，範圍為 13 美元至 14 美元。

Transformative changes that we've made in the business model continue to deliver strong results. The earnings power of our contractual businesses is more than offsetting near-term headwinds in the transactional parts of our business.

我們在商業模式上所做的變革持續帶來強勁成果。我們的合約業務的獲利能力足以抵消我們業務交易部分的短期阻力。

Turning to page 17. The key driver of expected earnings growth in 2025 is incremental benefits from multi-year strategic initiatives already underway and related to our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses. We have good visibility to these initiatives. They represent structural changes we're making in our business and are not dependent on cycle upturns.

翻到第 17 頁。2025 年預期獲利成長的主要驅動力是來自已在進行的與我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務相關的多年期策略計畫所帶來的增量收益。我們對這些舉措有很好的了解。它們代表了我們在業務中所做的結構性變化，並不依賴週期性好轉。

Upon completion, we expect these initiatives to generate annual pre-tax earnings benefits of approximately $150 million which will be a key component to achieving our long-term ROE target of low-20s over the cycle. In FMS, we expect to realize approximately $20 million in incremental annual benefits from our lease pricing initiative in 2025.

一旦完成，我們預計這些舉措將產生約 1.5 億美元的年度稅前收益，這將是我們在整個週期中實現 20% 出頭的長期 ROE 目標的關鍵因素。在 FMS 中，我們預計 2025 年我們的租賃定價措施將帶來每年約 2,000 萬美元的增量收益。

This results in a total of $125 million benefit relative to our 2018 run rate reflecting portfolio pricing under the new model. We expect $50 million in benefits from the multi-year maintenance cost savings initiative announced in mid 2024.

與我們的 2018 年運行率相比，這總共帶來了 1.25 億美元的收益，反映了新模式的投資組合定價。我們預計，2024 年中期宣布的多年期維護成本節約計畫將帶來 5,000 萬美元的收益。

In DTS, we expect to realize $40 million to $60 million in annual synergies from the Cardinal acquisition and full implementation. Integration is on track with good line of sight to the majority of expected synergies, which are related to maintenance efficiencies and replacing third-party operating leases with the benefits of Ryder ownership and asset management.

在 DTS 中，我們預計透過收購 Cardinal 並全面實施該專案每年可實現 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的協同效應。整合工作正在按計劃進行，大部分預期的協同效應都有望實現，這些效應與維護效率以及利用萊德所有權和資產管理的優勢取代第三方經營租賃有關。

In SCS, we are focused on optimizing our omni-channel retail warehouse network through continuous improvement efforts, driving operational efficiencies and better aligning our footprint with the demand environment.

在 SCS，我們專注於透過持續改進努力來優化我們的全通路零售倉庫網絡，提高營運效率並更好地使我們的足跡與需求環境保持一致。

During the second half of 2024, we began to see improved productivity in this vertical as a result of these actions and expect incremental benefits going forward. By 2025, we expect to realize benefits of approximately $100 million from these collective initiatives. Approximately $70 million of these benefits are incremental to 2024.

在 2024 年下半年，由於這些行動，我們開始看到該垂直領域的生產力提高，並預計未來將獲得增量收益。到 2025 年，我們預計將從這些集體舉措中獲得約 1 億美元的收益。其中約 7,000 萬美元的福利將至 2024 年遞增。

We are confident that the strength of our contractual portfolio and ongoing execution of these initiatives will provide incremental benefits in 2025 and beyond.

我們相信，我們強大的合約組合和這些舉措的持續執行將在 2025 年及以後帶來增量效益。

Turning to slide 18. In addition to continuing to increase the return profile of our contractual businesses, we are also focused on ensuring the business is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. As we outlined on the prior earnings call and at our Investor Day in June, we expect annual pre-tax earnings benefits of approximately $200 million by the next cycle peak.

翻到第 18 張投影片。除了持續提高合約業務的回報率外，我們還致力於確保業務能夠從週期性好轉中獲益。正如我們在先前的收益電話會議和 6 月的投資者日上所概述的那樣，我們預計到下一個週期高峰時年度稅前收益將達到約 2 億美元。

Although, the majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable operating cash flows over the cycle, each business segment has meaningful opportunities to benefit from the cycle upturn. We expect the majority of the $200 million benefit to come from the cyclical recovery of rental and used vehicle sales in FMS.

雖然我們的大部分收入是由長期合約支撐的，這些合約在整個週期內產生相對穩定和可預測的經營現金流，但每個業務部門都有從週期好轉中獲益的重大機會。我們預計，2 億美元收益中的大部分將來自 FMS 租賃和二手車銷售的周期性復甦。

In dedicated, improved driver availability and lower recruiting and turnover costs are benefiting earnings but have been headwinds for new sales and revenue growth. As freight capacity tightens and driver availability becomes more challenging, we expect to see incremental sales opportunities and improved revenue growth in DTS as private fleets seek solutions to address this pain point.

在專用方面，提高司機的可用性以及降低招聘和流動成本有利於盈利，但卻阻礙了新的銷售和收入成長。隨著貨運能力收緊和駕駛員可用性變得更具挑戰性，隨著私人車隊尋求解決方案來解決這一痛點，我們預計 DTS 將出現增量銷售機會和收入成長。

In supply chain, weaker volumes in our omni-channel retail vertical have been a headwind to revenue and earnings. We expect supply chain results to benefit as volumes for these services recover and our optimized warehouse footprint is leveraged.

在供應鏈中，全通路零售垂直市場的銷售疲軟對營收和獲利造成了阻力。我們預計，隨著這些服務的業務量恢復以及我們優化的倉庫空間得到利用，供應鏈績效將受益。

The high-end of our 2025 comparable forecast range includes minimal expected freight cycle upturn benefits of approximately $15 million. We've been pleased by the business's performance during the down cycle and are confident that each of our three business segments is appropriately positioned to benefit from the cycle of turns.

我們 2025 年可比預測範圍的高端包括預期貨運週期好轉效益最低約 1500 萬美元。我們對公司在經濟下行週期中的表現感到滿意，並相信我們的三個業務部門都已做好充分準備，能夠從經濟復甦週期中獲益。

Turning to page 19. We're forecasting comparable earnings per share of $13 to $14 versus $12 in 2024. We're also providing a first quarter comparable earnings per share forecast of $2.30 to $2.55 versus a prior year of $2.14.

翻到第19頁。我們預測每股收益為 13 至 14 美元，而 2024 年則為 12 美元。我們也預測第一季每股收益為 2.30 美元至 2.55 美元，而去年同期每股收益為 2.14 美元。

As a reminder, the first quarter has historically been our lowest earnings quarter and our forecast reflects normal seasonality. We remain focused on our initiatives to increase the return profile of our contractual portfolio and are confident that our transformed business model is capable of performing across a range of business environments.

提醒一下，第一季歷來是我們獲利最低的季度，我們的預測反映了正常的季節性。我們將繼續專注於提高合約組合回報率的舉措，並相信我們轉型後的業務模式能夠在各種業務環境中發揮作用。

Turning to page 20. Ryder is delivering value to our shareholders with more to come. Since implementing our balanced growth strategy, we have generated strong returns during each phase of the cycle. We achieved higher highs during the 2022 up cycle and generated significantly higher returns during the extended downturn in '23 and '24 relative to prior down cycles.

翻到第20頁。萊德正在為我們的股東創造更多價值。自實施均衡成長策略以來，我們在每個週期階段都獲得了強勁的回報。我們在 2022 年上升週期中取得了更高的高點，並在 2023 年和 2024 年的長期低迷期間獲得了相對於之前的下降週期明顯更高的回報。

We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth, supported by secular trends, our operational expertise and ongoing momentum from multi-year initiatives. We remain committed to investing in products, capabilities and technologies that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders.

在長期趨勢、我們的營運專業知識和多年計劃的持續發展勢頭的支持下，我們繼續看到巨大的獲利成長機會。我們將繼續致力於投資能夠為我們的客戶和股東創造價值的產品、能力和技術。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-K later today. We had a lot of material to cover today, so please limit yourself to one question each. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue, and we'll take as many as we can.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。請注意，我們預計將於今天晚些時候提交 10-K。今天我們要講的內容很多，所以請將每次提問限制在一個問題上。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎您重新加入隊列，我們會盡力解答。

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator.

這次我將把它轉交給接線員。

(Operator Instructions) Christyne McGarvey, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的 Christyne McGarvey。

Thanks for taking my question. Good morning. Maybe just starting on the revenue growth guidance. I know you guys called out a muted growth environment here. But would love to just parse out some of the moving parts there. Are you expecting a decent amount of turn or downsizing versus maybe just slower pipeline conversion just above a little bit more on the moving parts that get you to 2%?

感謝您回答我的問題。早安.也許只是開始製定收入成長指引。我知道你們指出這裡的成長環境低迷。但很想分析出那裡的一些活動部件。您是否期望有相當數量的轉變或縮小，而不是可能只是較慢的管道轉換，只是在移動部件上稍微多一點，使您達到 2％？

Yeah. Thanks, Christyne. Look, well, as we said, we expect -- on the FMS side, we expect to be within our target range of mid single-digits. Not a lot of lease fleet growth yet, probably flat and that's primarily because we're not expecting a whole lot of help from the freight market.

是的。謝謝，克里斯蒂娜。看起來，正如我們所說的，我們預計 - 在 FMS 方面，我們預計將在我們的目標範圍內，即個位數的中間值。租賃船隊成長不多，可能持平，這主要是因為我們預計貨運市場不會為我們帶來太多幫助。

So we're expecting continued softness or muted freight market through the year. That could change, but as we put together our plan, that was our best guess. And that would also create an ongoing growth headwinds in the supply chain and dedicated businesses. So we're not expending a lot from those businesses.

因此，我們預計全年貨運市場將持續疲軟或低迷。這可能會改變，但當我們制定計劃時，這是我們最好的猜測。這也將為供應鏈和專業業務帶來持續的成長阻力。因此我們在這些業務上的支出並不多。

As you can see, though, we do have pretty meaningful earnings growth. And I would just point to the fact that it's primarily an initiative-based earnings growth story. It's really those things that we know we can control and continue to execute on those initiatives is really what gives us confidence around the earnings -- the year-over-year earnings growth that we're outlining.

不過，正如您所看到的，我們的獲利確實實現了相當可觀的成長。我只想指出，這主要是一個基於計劃的獲利成長故事。事實上，我們知道我們可以控制這些事情，並繼續執行這些計劃，這才真正讓我們對盈利——我們所概述的同比盈利增長——充滿信心。

(Operator Instructions) Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

（操作員指示） Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you very much and congratulations, John and Christy, look forward to working with you both in your new roles. I want to focus a little bit on the dynamics going on in FMS. On one hand, people are talking about freight market turn and the market tightening up.

非常感謝，並祝賀約翰和克里斯蒂，期待在新的崗位上與你們合作。我想要專注於 FMS 中的動態。一方面，人們談論貨運市場轉向、市場收緊。

On the other hand, your redeployments are up, your extensions are down, your early terminations are up. It doesn't look as if rental move forward in the fourth quarter. It looked like it moved backward a little bit.

另一方面，您的重新部署數量增加了，您的延期數量減少了，您的提前終止數量增加了。第四季的租賃情況似乎不會有任何改善。它看起來好像向後移動了一點。

So from your perspective, I know the lease side of the business looks great, even the outsourced maintenance product looked like a pretty sharp slowdown. Is it getting better? Is it getting worse? Is it the same? What's going on the way you see truck demand out there?

所以從您的角度來看，我知道業務的租賃方面看起來很棒，甚至外包維護產品看起來也出現了相當急劇的放緩。有好轉嗎？情況是否變得更糟了？一樣嗎？您認為那裡的卡車需求情況如何？

Yeah. I'll let Tom give you a little more color. But I think it's -- I would just -- the simple answer is we're not seeing an upturn yet. We're still seeing if anything moving sideways, rental moving seasonally, but not a significant upturn.

是的。我會讓湯姆給你多一點色彩。但我認為——我只是——簡單的答案是我們還沒有看到好轉。我們仍看到任何橫向變動，租金出現季節性變動，但沒有明顯的上升。

Lease miles that we've been watching closely are flattish now and not making a big turn. And then on the used vehicle side, again, we still talked about single-digit declines in pricing. So Tom, I don't know if you can give a little more color.

我們密切關注的租賃里程目前持平，並未出現重大變化。然後在二手車方面，我們仍然談論價格的個位數下降。所以湯姆，我不知道你是否可以提供更多細節。

Yeah. I think it's the same across the three main product lines. It's pretty flattish. And any adjustments that we've seen are just normal seasonality. When you look at full service lease, customer sentiment has been the same, generally speaking. Pipelines remain about the same as we've moved from quarter to quarter.

是的。我認為三條主要產品線的情況都是一樣的。它相當平坦。我們看到的任何調整都只是正常的季節性現象。當您查看全方位服務租賃時，一般而言，客戶情緒是相同的。隨著我們每季的變動，管道保持大致相同。

There's still some concern out there from the customer base on, one, what you're seeing from tariffs and uncertainty around that and then still uncertainty in the general economic environment, which I think is still continuing to cause delays and decisions.

客戶群體中仍然存在一些擔憂，首先，關稅及其不確定性，其次，總體經濟環境仍然存在不確定性，我認為這仍然會繼續導致延誤和決策。

In rental, we saw just a normal seasonal uptick in the fourth quarter. As we rolled in here to January, we expected that demand to fall sequentially like it always does seasonally. And we saw a normal seasonal adjustment in the Q1.

在租賃方面，我們看到第四季出現了正常的季節性上漲。隨著一月份的到來，我們預計需求將像往常一樣隨季節變化而下降。我們看到第一季的季節性調整正常。

And then similarly, in used vehicle sales, pricing down a little bit, but generally speaking, just bouncing along the bottom. And as we rolled in here to January, we saw the same thing. And to a large extent, we're forecasting that flattish environment through most of the year with a little bit of an uptick in the back half.

同樣，在二手車銷售中，價格會略有下降，但總體而言，只是在底部徘徊。當進入一月份時，我們看到了同樣的事情。在很大程度上，我們預測今年大部分時間的經濟環境將保持平穩，下半年將略有回升。

How do you interpret the SelectCare part of the portfolio slowing down to I think 1% growth in the quarter. That one had me scratching my head a little bit because I would think if people are delaying decisions, they still need to maintain their vehicles, right? So is this part of the paralysis?

您如何看待 SelectCare 部分投資組合在本季成長放緩至 1% 的原因。這讓我有點困惑，因為我想如果人們推遲決定，他們仍然需要保養他們的車輛，對嗎？那麼這是癱瘓的一部分嗎？

Yeah. I think, Jeff, spoke about it on the -- I'm sorry, Tom spoke about it on the last call. But go ahead, Tom, you can talk about what you're saying there.

是的。我想，傑夫在——對不起，湯姆在上次通話中談到了這個問題。但繼續吧，湯姆，你可以談論你正在說的話。

Yeah. We were 1% up full year. But in the fourth quarter, the revenue was up 3% year-over-year. And that's despite what you're seeing in the fleet. I've mentioned this before, but we had really two large sites. One, a very large trailer fleet that downsize from Q3 into Q4 and very low to no impact to the financials, as you can see.

是的。全年成長了 1%。但第四季度，營收年增了 3%。儘管你在艦隊中看到了這些情況，但情況仍然如此。我之前提到過這一點，但我們實際上有兩個大型網站。首先，正如你所看到的，我們的拖車車隊規模非常大，從第三季到第四季逐漸縮小，但對財務的影響非常小甚至沒有影響。

And then certainly, the rest of the unit count loss was very low impact, both to revenue and margin. And as we look to 2025, we're expecting that SelectCare fleet to grow in that mid single-digit target range that we've put out there.

當然，其餘單位數量損失對收入和利潤的影響都很小。展望 2025 年，我們預期 SelectCare 車隊規模將達到我們設定的中位數個位數目標範圍。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）。

Yeah. I just wanted to come back to the revenue for a second. When you think ahead in 2025, is the expectations because if you sort of just look at supply chain and dedicated, I want would not imply much growth from those two segments. Is that based on your pipeline visibility now? And can that prove out to be conservative?

是的。我只是想稍微回顧一下收入問題。當你展望 2025 年時，就會有這樣的預期，因為如果你只看供應鏈和專用領域，我希望這兩個領域不會有太大的成長。這是基於您現在的管道可見性嗎？那麼這是否被證明是保守的呢？

I know you alluded to not much help from the freight markets, but what could get more growth there? And then just along those lines, which has the bigger drag do you think going into the year? Is it dedicated or supply chain? Thanks.

我知道您提到貨運市場沒有提供太大幫助，但什麼能帶來更多的成長呢？那麼依照這個思路，您認為今年哪個因素的阻力比較大？是專用的還是供應鏈的？謝謝。

Yeah. I'm just saying, look, I think the most important thing is the secular trends that we see around outsourcing in each of our businesses are still solid. What we're seeing is the impact of the freight markets down that's hurting lease, starting dedicated to a certain extent, hurting some of supply chain.

是的。我只是說，看，我認為最重要的是我們在每個業務中看到的外包長期趨勢仍然穩固。我們看到貨運市場低迷的影響正在損害租賃，並在一定程度上損害了專用租賃，損害了部分供應鏈。

And then also the uncertainty in the economic environment gives customers pause before they sign a long-term contract, which is what all these businesses are. But John, why don't you give a little bit more color as how we see that.

此外，經濟環境的不確定性也會讓客戶在簽署長期合約之前猶豫不決，而所有這些業務都是如此。但是約翰，你為什麼不進一步詳細解釋一下我們是如何看待這一點的呢？

Yeah. Jordan, just picking up on dedicated first, you heard from Tom earlier about what he's saying in lease that spills over with fleets into our dedicated business as well. We are seeing kind of a sideways market and we haven't seen much sales activity here as we navigate the bottom of the cycle.

是的。喬丹，首先我們來談談專用業務，你之前聽到湯姆談到了租賃，租賃會隨著車隊的擴張而延伸到我們的專用業務中。我們看到了一種橫盤市場，在週期底部行進時我們並沒有看到太多的銷售活動。

So I think that will continue for us both on dedicated and supply chain. The lead times are generally about 6 to 9 months. So once the market starts picking up, then you would see our contractual growth in both dedicated supply chain to start picking up.

所以我認為這對我們專用鍊和供應鏈都將繼續。交貨時間通常約為6至9個月。因此，一旦市場開始回暖，您就會看到我們專用供應鏈中的合約成長開始回升。

As far as the health of the pipeline, the pipelines are actually up and one that we're pretty excited about. I think people are just waiting for decisions to be made. As they look at the policy uncertainty with the administration and tariffs in particular, but we do expect as we get to the latter part of the year, we're going to see some movement in sales activities and sales wins as we close out the year.

就管道的健康狀況而言，管道實際上已恢復運行，我們對此感到非常興奮。我認為人們只是在等待做出決定。他們關注的是政府政策的不確定性，尤其是關稅，但我們確實預計，隨著今年下半年的到來，我們將在年末看到銷售活動和銷售勝利的一些變化。

Thanks. And just along those lines, I just make sure I understand on the supply chain side. In terms of the pipeline, are you seeing any shift in demands from a vertical demand perspective, like maybe is industrial picking up auto, I'm just sort of curious within supply chain where the most interest has been. Thanks.

謝謝。按照這個思路，我只是確保我了解供應鏈方面的情況。就通路而言，從垂直需求角度來看，您是否看到需求發生了任何變化，例如工業領域是否正在逐漸接受汽車領域，我只是很好奇，在供應鏈中，人們最感興趣的是什麼。謝謝。

Sure. Let me put -- Steve is on the line. Sensing, you want to take that?

當然。讓我說一下——史蒂夫在線上。感覺，你想拿走那個嗎？

Yeah. Sure will, Jordan. Yeah. I think as you look at the pipeline, as John said, we're slightly up here year-over-year in the quarter. We've seen a nice uptick in industrial around 25% there. Tech and health, similar retail is up and also in our transactional business.

是的。當然會的，喬丹。是的。我認為，當你看一下管道時，正如約翰所說，我們本季的銷售額比去年同期略有上升。我們看到那裡的工業成長了約 25%。科技和健康、類似的零售業都在成長，並且也在我們的交易業務中。

So I'd say it's a spread across the majority of those, not seeing a huge uptick in automotive at this point. But all in all, I think we're in pretty good shape.

因此，我想說，這種情況在大多數產業中都存在，目前汽車產業還沒有大幅上漲。但總的來說，我認為我們的狀況非常好。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾伊姆布羅、史蒂芬斯。

Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking our questions. Maybe to follow up on the dedicated revenue outlook. I think you mentioned we're flattish here in the quarters navigate the down cycle, but the dedicated revenue per truck decelerated a bit sequentially. It actually decelerated a little more than some other dedicated carriers did.

嘿，大家早安。感謝您回答我們的問題。也許是為了跟進專門的收入前景。我記得你提到過，我們在本季度處於平穩狀態，處於下行週期，但每輛卡車的專用收入環比略有下降。事實上，它的減速比其他一些專用航空母艦要大一些。

So can you talk about why that revenue per truck is slowing if the macro feels like it's at least stable. And then understanding the pipeline is growing, just curious how we think about revenue per truck per week as we think about the '25 guide and what that margin recovery looks like within DTS. Thanks.

那麼，如果宏觀經濟感覺至少是穩定的，您能談談為什麼每輛卡車的收入成長會放緩嗎？然後了解管道正在成長，只是好奇我們如何看待每輛卡車每週的收入，因為我們考慮'25指南，以及DTS內的利潤率恢復情況。謝謝。

Yeah. I mean, I don't have the exact numbers around that versus the market, but it really has to do with sequentially seasonal slowdowns in the fourth quarter. And also, it's the mix of customer base that we have.

是的。我的意思是，我沒有相對於市場的確切數字，但這確實與第四季度的季節性放緩有關。而且這也是我們擁有的客戶群的組合。

We have customized dedicated transportation. So these are not your typical drive. So depending on what's going on in those industries, you're going to have some adjustments to revenue in the quarter so that I mean that's the only explanation I could think of for that. John, if there's anything else.

我們有客製化的專用運輸方式。所以這些不是你典型的駕駛方式。因此，根據這些行業的情況，您將對本季度的收入進行一些調整，所以我想這是我能想到的唯一解釋。約翰，如果還有其他事情的話。

Yeah. I think what you're looking at there is looking at gross revenue as a factor to our unit count, but if you look at our operating revenue that normalizes for what's happening with fuel prices, that indicator is actually performing quite well and sequentially was in line with what we would expect.

是的。我認為，你所看到的是將總收入作為我們單位數量的一個因素，但如果你看看我們的營業收入，該收入根據燃料價格的變化而正常化，那麼這個指標實際上表現得相當好，並且與我們的預期一致。

And on the margin recovery, that's simply just pricing is the biggest lever to get us back towards that historical kind of target range?

就利潤率回升而言，定價只是讓我們回到歷史目標範圍的最大槓桿嗎？

Yeah. It's really finishing the integration of our Cardinal acquisition. So we feel really good about the progress we've made so far and have good line of sight in 2025. So that is one of the -- I would say, one of the meaningful drivers to our earnings growth story in 2025. And we expect that would get dedicated EBT as a percent of revenue back to our target level of high single digits.

是的。這實際上完成了我們對 Cardinal 收購的整合。因此，我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意，並對 2025 年抱持良好的預期。所以我想說，這是我們 2025 年獲利成長的重要驅動因素之一。我們預計專用 EBT 佔收入的百分比將回到我們的目標水平，即高個位數。

Harrison Bauer, Susquehanna.

哈里森鮑爾，薩斯奎哈納。

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Just bigger picture with regards to tariffs and US trade policy. How is that impacting your business so far? And maybe you can discuss kind of the more explicit cross-border effect that you might have with some of your business in Canada and Mexico? And then broadly, how might let your SCS or other businesses be indirectly affected by some of this tariff and trade policy? Thank you.

偉大的。感謝您回答我的問題。關於關稅和美國貿易政策的更大圖景。到目前為止這對您的業務有何影響？也許您可以討論一下您在加拿大和墨西哥的一些業務可能產生的更明確的跨境影響？那麼從廣義上講，您的 SCS 或其他業務可能會如何間接受到這些關稅和貿易政策的影響？謝謝。

Okay. Thanks, Harrison. Well, first of all, right now, the only impact I see right now is primarily around just creating uncertainty, which creates some headwinds for customers we want to sign long-term contracts. So they'd be three year, six, seven year contracts for our contractual businesses.

好的。謝謝，哈里森。首先，現在，我看到的唯一影響主要是造成不確定性，這給我們希望簽訂長期合約的客戶帶來了一些阻力。因此，對於我們的合約業務來說，這些合約將是三年、六年或七年的合約。

So that's clearly created some additional uncertainty. Further on, as it relates to additional tariffs that may or may not be put in place here, I guess the first thing I would tell you is that 93% of our revenues are in the United States, in the US. So we're primarily US.

所以這顯然造成了一些額外的不確定性。此外，由於這涉及到可能或可能不會實施的額外關稅，我想我要告訴你的第一件事是，我們 93% 的收入都來自美國。因此我們主要是美國。

We also have operations in Mexico and Canada. There's been a lot of uncertainty around the timing and the final policy with any tariffs that would be implemented as part of the North America USMCA agreement adjustments, but I guess one thing that we do feel pretty confident is our ability to -- certainly as it relates to trucks to pass those through to our customers, both contractually and historically, we've been able to do that.

我們也在墨西哥和加拿大開展業務。作為北美 USMCA 協議調整的一部分，任何關稅的實施時間和最終政策都存在很大的不確定性，但我想有一件事我們確實非常有信心，那就是我們有能力——當然就卡車而言，將這些關稅轉嫁給我們的客戶，無論是從合約上還是從歷史上看，我們都能夠做到這一點。

And then I think as a leader in transportation and supply chain services, we're really well positioned to help our customers navigate through some additional, I would say, uncertainty and need for resilience and flexibility. So we feel good about that. So I guess, near-term, creating some uncertainty which could really just slow things down on the sales side.

然後我認為，作為運輸和供應鏈服務的領導者，我們完全有能力幫助我們的客戶應對一些額外的不確定性以及對彈性和靈活性的需求。因此我們對此感到很高興。因此我認為，短期內產生的一些不確定性可能會真正減緩銷售的進展。

And it's just really hard to tell in terms of what the tariffs of any will be between US, Mexico and Canada and what the impact of that could be.

而且，很難判斷美國、墨西哥和加拿大之間的關稅是多少，以及會產生什麼影響。

Thanks. And maybe a quick follow-up actually on dedicated. Are you still seeing some pressure from smaller fleets, maybe undercutting on pricing? And what contractual rate pricing from truckload rates do you need to see to maybe get shippers to convert to your platform as the year progresses?

謝謝。也許實際上是對專門內容進行快速跟進。您仍看到小型車隊的壓力，或許是價格下降的壓力？隨著時間的推移，您需要看到什麼樣的整車運輸合約費率定價才能讓托運人轉換到您的平台？

Yeah. I'll let Steve give you a little more color. But generally, what's happening is when spot rates are so low, where companies maybe have added some dedicated fleet in order to move their products during times where there wasn't a whole lot of capacity during COVID on the truckload side.

是的。我會讓史蒂夫給你更多細節。但一般情況下，當現貨價格如此之低時，公司可能會增加一些專用車隊，以便在疫情期間卡車運力不太多的情況下運輸產品。

We're seeing on the margin, those moving -- some of those moving back. But Steve, do you want to give them a little bit of color on where you think that could turn.

我們看到，在邊緣地區，有些人正在遷徙，有些人則正在遷移。但是史蒂夫，你能否給他們稍微解釋一下你認為事情可能會如何發展？

Yeah. I think it's similar to where -- as Tom was saying, we continue to bounce on the bottom as far as the spot rate. And we're starting to see some tightening on the contract rates, which is a positive side. So as those customers now in the past have really traded service for cost with those secular trends of the driver tightening market coming back, brake market coming back, we expect that to yield, as Robert said in his prepared remarks, opportunities for growth in dedicated.

是的。我認為這與湯姆所說的情況類似，就現貨匯率而言，我們繼續在底部反彈。我們開始看到合約利率有所收緊，這是一個積極的方面。因此，隨著過去那些客戶確實用服務換取成本，隨著駕駛緊縮市場、煞車市場復甦的長期趨勢，我們預計這將帶來專用業務的成長機會，正如羅伯特在準備好的發言中所說的那樣。

I guess what I would add at Harrison to is that what helps us there also is the majority of our customers are customized type dedicated. So not as easy to transfer all of that freight to truckload. There is some, and that's the stuff we're seeing on the margin roll off.

我想在哈里森補充的是，對我們有幫助的是，我們的大多數客戶都是客製化類型的。因此，將所有貨物轉裝到卡車上並不容易。有一些，這就是我們在利潤率下降時看到的東西。

Christyne McGarvey, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Christyne McGarvey。

Hey. Thanks for my second question here. Maybe just a quick one, just on bonus depreciation, can you frame up if there is any sort of policy change there? What that could mean for Ryders?

嘿。感謝您提出我的第二個問題。也許只是一個簡單的問題，僅關於獎金折舊，您能否說明那裡是否有任何政策變化？這對萊德斯來說意味著什麼？

Hi, Christyne. Yeah. So basically if there is a change there what we're expecting, it depends on what it looks like and and what comes out of it, but a combination of the bonus depreciation and interest deductibility could present us with an opportunity to lower cash taxes by about $200 million.

你好，克里斯蒂娜。是的。因此，基本上，如果我們預期那裡會發生改變，這取決於它是什麼樣子以及會產生什麼結果，但獎金折舊和利息扣除額的組合可能會為我們提供降低約 2 億美元現金稅的機會。

So it all is going to depend on when it goes into effect and if it's retro or perspective, but we're closely monitoring that and think that it'll benefit us from a cash tax perspective.

所以這一切都取決於它何時生效，以及它是追溯性的還是前瞻性的，但我們正在密切關注這一點，並認為從現金稅的角度來看它將使我們受益。

At this time there are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back to Robert for any additional or closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給羅伯特，讓他做任何補充或結束語。

Okay. Thank you all. Thanks for your interest in Ryder. We're really proud of the team's performance. Another strong quarter during this extended downturn, and it's our first quarter with year over year earnings and we expect to now become a trend as long as things continue the way that we are seeing them.

好的。謝謝大家。感謝您對 Ryder 的關注。我們為球隊的表現感到非常自豪。在長期的經濟低迷期間，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，這是我們第一個盈利同比增長的季度，我們預計，只要情況繼續按照我們所看到的方式發展，這就會成為一種趨勢。

And I think it's another proof point of the resiliency and durability of our transformed business model. So excited about that and looking forward to seeing all of you as we get out on the road.

我認為這是我們轉型後的商業模式的彈性和持久性的另一個證明點。我對此感到非常興奮，並期待上路時見到大家。

This does concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。