萊德系統 (R) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 Ryder System 2021 年第一季財報發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，請此時斷開連接。

I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下 Ryder 投資者關係副總裁 Calene Candela 女士。坎德拉女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Ryder 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.

我想提醒您，在本演示中，您將聽到一些1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。 。由於經濟、商業、競爭、市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多詳細資訊以及每項非GAAP 財務指標與最接近的GAAP 指標的調節，請參閱今天上午的收益報告、收益電話會議演示以及Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（可在Ryder網站上取得）。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Diez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長羅伯特‧桑切斯 (Robert Sanchez)；執行副總裁兼財務長約翰‧迪茲 (John Diez)。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens 表示：供應鏈解決方案和專用運輸解決方案總裁 Steve Sensing 今天接聽了電話，並可以回答演示後的問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

這時候，我會把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。

I'm extremely proud of our team for delivering solid results again this quarter despite freight conditions that remain challenging. Our operating performance continues to demonstrate that the transformative changes that we've made to derisk our business model, enhance returns and drive long-term profitable growth have significantly increased the earnings and return profile of the business versus prior cycles.

儘管貨運條件仍然充滿挑戰，但我為我們的團隊在本季再次取得穩健的業績感到非常自豪。我們的經營業績繼續證明，我們為降低業務模式風險、提高回報和推動長期盈利增長而做出的變革，與之前的周期相比，顯著提高了業務的盈利和回報狀況。

I'll begin today's call by providing you with key strategic updates, as well as an update on the integration of Cardinal Logistics. John will then take you through our first quarter results, which exceeded our expectations, reflecting better-than-expected used vehicle sales results and benefits from our maintenance cost savings initiative. I'll then review our outlook and discuss how we have positioned the business to benefit from the cycle upturn.

在今天的電話會議開始時，我將向您提供關鍵的策略更新以及 Cardinal Logistics 整合的最新資訊。然後，約翰將向您介紹我們第一季的業績，該業績超出了我們的預期，反映出好於預期的二手車銷售業績以及我們的維護成本節約計劃帶來的好處。然後，我將回顧我們的前景，並討論我們如何定位業務以從週期好轉中受益。

Let's begin on Slide 4. Turning to Slide 4. Executing on our balanced growth strategy continues to drive outperformance relative to prior cycles. Across all phases of the current freight cycle, our earnings and return profile have been higher than prior cycles, demonstrating the effectiveness of our strategy. The integration of our recent acquisitions of Cardinal Logistics and Impact Fulfillment Services or IFS, is on track. As you may recall, we completed the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics on February 1, enabling growth and further strengthening our position as a leading provider of customized dedicated transportation solutions.

讓我們從投影片 4 開始。在目前貨運週期的所有階段，我們的收入和回報狀況都高於先前的周期，這證明了我們策略的有效性。我們最近收購的 Cardinal Logistics 和 Impact Fulfillment Services 或 IFS 的整合正在按計劃進行。您可能還記得，我們​​在 2 月 1 日完成了對 Cardinal Logistics 的收購，從而實現了增長並進一步鞏固了我們作為定制專用運輸解決方案領先提供商的地位。

I'll provide some additional information on this integration shortly. November 1 of last year, we completed the acquisition of IFS, which added co-packaging and co-manufacturing capabilities in supply chain, primarily supporting our CPG business. We continue to see long-term growth opportunities in all 3 of our business segments, supported by secular trends that favor outsourcing decisions, large addressable markets and the value our solutions bring to our customers.

我很快就會提供有關此整合的一些附加資訊。去年11月1日，我們完成了對IFS的收購，增加了供應鏈上的聯合包裝和聯合製造能力，主要支持我們的CPG業務。在有利於外包決策、龐大的潛在市場以及我們的解決方案為客戶帶來的價值的長期趨勢的支持下，我們繼續在所有三個業務領域看到長期成長機會。

Our initiatives remain focused on enhancing returns. Adjusted ROE of 17% for the trailing 12-month period is in line with our long-term target and reflects our expectations given where we are in the cycle. The impact on ROE from weakening market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental has been partially offset by our initiatives. These initiatives include pricing and cost recovery actions, which benefited returns in all segments. FMS and SCS are expected to achieve their target EBT margins for the full year 2024, reflecting our initiatives as well as execution on our enhanced asset management playbook at FMS. We continue to expect DTS EBT margins to be just below the segment's long-term target in 2024, reflecting acquisition integration and other related costs.

我們的舉措仍專注於提高回報。過去 12 個月期間調整後的股本回報率為 17%，符合我們的長期目標，並反映了我們對所處週期的預期。我們的措施部分抵銷了二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況疲軟對股本回報率的影響。這些舉措包括定價和成本回收行動，這有利於所有細分市場的回報。 FMS 和 SCS 預計將在 2024 年全年實現息稅前利潤率目標，這反映了我們的舉措以及 FMS 增強資產管理手冊的執行情況。我們仍預期 DTS EBT 利潤率將略低於該部門 2024 年的長期目標，反映了收購整合和其他相關成本。

Our strong balance sheet and solid investment-grade credit rating continue to provide us with capacity to pursue targeted acquisitions and investments, as well as return capital to shareholders. During the quarter, we repurchased 120,000 shares under our discretionary repurchase program. We currently have authorization for a 2 million share discretionary program, as well as a 2 million share anti-dilutive program with approximately 3 million in total shares remaining under these programs. Since 2021, we have repurchased approximately 16% of our shares outstanding. We also increased our dividend by 15% in mid-2023.

我們強大的資產負債表和可靠的投資等級信用評級繼續為我們提供進行有針對性的收購和投資以及向股東返還資本的能力。本季度，我們根據酌情回購計畫回購了 120,000 股股票。我們目前已授權一項 200 萬股全權委託計劃，以及一項 200 萬股反稀釋計劃，這些計劃下的總股數約為 300 萬股。自 2021 年以來，我們回購了約 16% 的已發行股票。我們還在 2023 年中期將股利增加了 15%。

Our full year 2024 forecast for free cash flow is negative $175 million to $275 million, higher than our prior forecast of negative $275 million to $375 million, primarily due to lower rental capital expenditures. We're encouraged by our solid performance in the first quarter and believe that executing on our balanced growth strategy will continue to enable us to deliver higher highs and higher lows over the cycle.

我們對 2024 年全年自由現金流的預測為負 1.75 億美元至 2.75 億美元，高於我們先前預測的負 2.75 億美元至 3.75 億美元，這主要是由於租金資本支出減少。我們對第一季的穩健表現感到鼓舞，並相信執行我們的平衡成長策略將繼續使我們能夠在整個週期內實現更高的高點和更高的低點。

Slide 5 shows a comparison of key financial and operating metrics for 2018 and for our 2024 forecast. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, we generated comparable EPS of $5.95 million through return on equity of 13%. This was during peak freight cycle conditions. At that time, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS. Supply chain revenue had a 3-year growth rate of 16% and operating cash flow was $1.7 billion.

投影片 5 顯示了 2018 年主要財務和營運指標與我們 2024 年預測的比較。 2018 年，在實施平衡成長策略之前，我們透過 13% 的股本回報率實現了 595 萬美元的可比每股收益。這是在貨運週期高峰期。當時，我們 84 億美元的收入大部分來自 FMS。供應鏈收入三年成長率為16%，營運現金流為17億美元。

Now let's look at what we're expecting from Ryder today. In 2024, a year that we expect will represent trough conditions in used vehicle sales and rental, we expect our transformed business model to generate meaningfully higher earnings and returns than it did during the 2018 peak. 2024 comparable EPS is expected to be $11.75 to $12.50 compared to $5.95 in 2018 and ROE is expected to be 15.5% to 16.5%, well above the 13% generated in 2018. Through organic growth, strategic acquisitions and innovative technology, we have shifted our revenue mix towards SCS and DTS, with 60% of 2024 revenue expected to come from these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018.

現在讓我們來看看今天對萊德的期待。 2024 年，我們預計二手車銷售和租賃將迎來低谷，我們預計我們轉型後的業務模式將產生比 2018 年高峰期間顯著更高的收益和回報。 2024 年可比每股收益預計為11.75 美元至12.50 美元，而2018 年為5.95 美元，淨資產收益率預計為15.5% 至16.5%，遠高於2018 年的13%。技術，我們已經轉變了我們的SCS 和 DTS 的收入組合預計 2024 年 60% 的收入將來自這些輕資產業務，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。

Supply chain 3-year growth rate is also expected to increase to 20%. As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease, Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses, operating cash flow is expected to grow from $1.7 billion in 2018 to $2.4 billion this year. As shown here, the business is outperforming prior cycles, even when comparing prior peak to expected trough conditions.

供應鏈3年成長率也預期提高至20%。由於我們的合約租賃、供應鏈和專用業務的獲利成長，經營現金流預計將從 2018 年的 17 億美元成長到今年的 24 億美元。如圖所示，即使將先前的高峰與預期的低谷情況進行比較，業務的表現也優於先前的週期。

I'm encouraged by the results of our transformation thus far, and I am confident that the solid execution and momentum from multiyear initiatives position us well for 2024 and beyond.

迄今為止我們的轉型成果令我深受鼓舞，我相信多年舉措的紮實執行和勢頭將使我們在 2024 年及以後保持良好的地位。

Moving to Slide 6. On February 1, Ryder completed the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics. This acquisition further advances our balanced growth strategy by accelerating profitable growth in our Dedicated business. DTS continues to be an important part of Ryder's strategy to create shareholder value. Secular trends, including the driver shortage, and demand for business intelligence and freight visibility technology such as RyderShare continue to drive private fleets to pursue an outsourced dedicated transportation solution. Our Dedicated business has demonstrated a resilient earnings profile over the cycle, as shown during the current freight downturn as well as during prior cycles.

轉向幻燈片 6。2 月 1 日，Ryder 完成了對 Cardinal Logistics 的收購。此次收購加速了我們專用業務的獲利成長，進一步推進了我們的平衡成長策略。 DTS 仍然是 Ryder 創造股東價值策略的重要組成部分。司機短缺等長期趨勢以及對商業智慧和貨運視覺技術（例如 RyderShare）的需求繼續推動私人車隊尋求外包專用運輸解決方案。正如當前貨運低迷時期以及先前的周期所示，我們的專用業務在整個週期中表現出了彈性的獲利狀況。

Finally, our Dedicated business benefit from sales and operational synergies with FMS. Upselling FMS pipeline and lease customers to Dedicated has been the largest driver of new sales activity for DTS for some time. DTS also benefits from access to equipment, asset management and maintenance services from FMS, enabling DTS to deliver increased value for their customers and drive incremental cost savings.

最後，我們的專用業務受益於與 FMS 的銷售和營運綜效。一段時間以來，追加銷售 FMS 管道並向 Dedicated 租賃客戶一直是 DTS 新銷售活動的最大推動力。 DTS 也受惠於 FMS 提供的設備、資產管理和維護服務，使 DTS 能夠為其客戶提供更高的價值並推動逐步節省成本。

As we reach full integration in year 3, we expect net synergies realized to be between $40 million and $60 million. The expected synergies largely belong in 3 categories: The first category is related to vehicle maintenance costs. Prior to the acquisition, Cardinal procured maintenance services from various third-party providers. Consolidating maintenance and asset management activities with Ryder is expected to generate significant cost savings and efficiencies going forward.

當我們在第三年實現全面整合時，我們預計實現的淨協同效應將在 4000 萬美元至 6000 萬美元之間。預期的綜效主要分為三類：第一類與車輛維修成本有關。在收購之前，卡迪納爾從各個第三方提供者購買了維護服務。與 Ryder 整合維護和資產管理活動預計將在未來顯著節省成本並提高效率。

The second category is cost savings related to vehicles financed under third-party operating leases. Approximately 1/3 of Cardinal's fleet is financed through operating leases with various banks and financing companies. As these leases mature, vehicles will be replaced with Ryder owned vehicles which will benefit from Ryder's lower vehicle acquisition costs and financing. The majority of synergies are expected from these maintenance and equipment cost savings. In addition, we expect to benefit from operating efficiencies, as we integrate the business into our existing operations and leverage management and overheads. We expect these synergies to begin in the second half of 2024, with benefits accelerating in 2025.

第二類是與第三方經營租賃融資的車輛相關的成本節省。 Cardinal 大約 1/3 的機隊透過與多家銀行和金融公司的經營租賃獲得融資。隨著這些租賃的到期，車輛將被萊德擁有的車輛所取代，這將受益於萊德較低的車輛購買成本和融資。大部分協同效應預計來自於這些維護和設備成本的節省。此外，當我們將業務整合到現有營運中並利用管理和管理費用時，我們預計將從營運效率中受益。我們預計這些綜效將於 2024 年下半年開始，並在 2025 年加速顯現效益。

Our integration of the Cardinal acquisition is on track. 2024 integration costs are estimated to be approximately $10 million and represent the majority of total expected integration costs. In 2024, we expect DTS EBT percent to be mid-single digits, reflecting integration and other related costs. Our legacy DTS portfolio is expected to operate at the segment's high single-digit target EBT percent in 2024. By 2025, realization of Cardinal synergies is expected to drive the DTS EBT percent back to the segment's high single-digit target. On an annualized basis, the transaction is expected to add approximately $1 billion of total revenue and approximately $800 million in operating revenue, which excludes fuel and subcontracted transportation.

我們對 Cardinal 收購的整合正在按計劃進行。 2024 年的整合成本預計約為 1,000 萬美元，佔預期整合總成本的大部分。到 2024 年，我們預計 DTS EBT 百分比將達到中個位數，反映了整合和其他相關成本。我們的傳統DTS 產品組合預計將在2024 年以該細分市場高個位數目標EBT 百分比營運。目標。以年化計算，此交易預計將增加約 10 億美元的總收入和約 8 億美元的營業收入（其中不包括燃料和分包運輸）。

As a reminder, approximately 85% of operating revenue will be reflected in DTS, approximately 15% in Supply Chain and FMS will include intersegment revenue from equipment leases and maintenance. DTS fleet count at quarter end reflects the inclusion of 2,900 power vehicles and 6,900 trailers from the acquisition. We continue to expect the transaction to be marginally accretive in 2024 and more meaningfully accretive in 2025 after achieving synergies and completing integration efforts.

需要提醒的是，大約 85% 的營業收入將反映在 DTS 中，約 15% 的營業收入將反映在供應鏈和 FMS 中，其中包括來自設備租賃和維護的部門間收入。截至季末，DTS 車隊數量包括收購後的 2,900 輛電動車和 6,900 輛拖車。我們仍然預計，在實現協同效應並完成整合工作後，該交易將在 2024 年實現小幅增值，並在 2025 年實現更有意義的增值。

We're very excited about the opportunities ahead and believe that Dedicated will continue to be an important driver of value creation for Ryder. The team is focused on a successful integration and realizing the synergies and benefits we are confident are achievable.

我們對未來的機會感到非常興奮，並相信 Dedicated 將繼續成為 Ryder 價值創造的重要驅動力。團隊專注於成功整合並實現我們相信可以實現的協同效應和效益。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review our first quarter performance.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰，回顧我們第一季的業績。

Thanks, Robert.

謝謝，羅伯特。

Total company results for the first quarter are on Page 7. Operating revenue of $2.5 billion in the first quarter, up 6% from the prior year, primarily reflects recent acquisitions and contractual growth, partially offset by lower rental revenue. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.14 in the first quarter, down from $2.81 in the prior year. The earnings decline reflects weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental, partially offset by higher supply chain and ChoiceLease results.

該公司第一季的整體業績見第 7 頁。第一季持續經營業務的可比每股收益為 2.14 美元，低於去年同期的 2.81 美元。獲利下降反映了二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況疲軟，但部分被供應鍊和 ChoiceLease 業績的成長所抵消。

Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 17% and in line with our high teens target over the cycle. The year-over-year decline reflects weakening used vehicle sales and rental market conditions. Free cash flow for the first quarter decreased to $13 million from $101 million in 2023, primarily due to lower proceeds from property and used vehicle sales.

我們的主要財務指標股本回報率為 17%，符合我們在整個週期內的高青少年目標。年比下降反映了二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況的疲軟。第一季的自由現金流從 2023 年的 1.01 億美元減少至 1,300 萬美元，主要是因為房地產和二手車銷售收入減少。

Turning to Fleet Management results on Page 8. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue decreased 1% due to lower rental demand, partially offset by higher ChoiceLease revenue. ChoiceLease revenue grew 9% with about half coming from organic lease growth and the remainder from intersegment lease revenue from Cardinal vehicles operating in our Dedicated segment.

轉向第 8 頁的車隊管理結果。 ChoiceLease 營收成長 9%，其中約一半來自有機租賃成長，其餘則來自我們專用部門營運的 Cardinal 車輛的部門間租賃收入。

Pretax earnings in Fleet Management were $100 million and down year-over-year as anticipated. Results reflect lower used vehicle pricing compared to elevated levels in the prior year, as well as weaker rental demand. The impact from lower used vehicle pricing in the quarter was partially offset by higher used vehicle volumes.

車隊管理部門的稅前收益為 1 億美元，較去年同期下降，符合預期。結果反映出，與前一年相比，二手車價格有所下降，租賃需求也有所減弱。本季二手車價格下降的影響被二手車銷售增加部分抵銷。

Rental utilization on the power fleet was 66%, down from 75% in the prior year. Rental results for the quarter reflect market conditions that remain weak, in addition to the sequential decline in rental activity, we typically see in the first quarter. Power fleet pricing declined 1%, reflecting a rental fleet mix with more trucks and fewer tractors.

電力機隊的租賃利用率為 66%，低於前一年的 75%。本季的租金結果反映了市場狀況仍然疲軟，此外我們通常會在第一季看到租賃活動的連續下降。動力車隊定價下降了 1%，反映出租賃車隊中卡車數量增多，拖拉機數量減少。

During the quarter, higher ChoiceLease results and benefits from our maintenance cost saving initiatives partially offset the earnings impact from weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental businesses. Fleet Management EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 8% in the first quarter and is expected to be in line with the segment's long-term target of low double digits for full year 2024.

本季度，ChoiceLease 較高的業績以及我們節省維修成本措施帶來的收益部分抵銷了二手車銷售和租賃業務市場狀況疲軟帶來的獲利影響。第一季車隊管理 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 8%，預計將符合該部門 2024 年全年低兩位數的長期目標。

Page 9 highlights used vehicle sales results for the quarter. As anticipated, market conditions for used vehicle sales continue to weaken from elevated levels in the prior year. Compared with prior year, used tractor proceeds declined 34% and used truck proceeds declined 30%. On a sequential basis, proceeds for tractors decreased 4% and proceeds for trucks decreased 3%, slightly better than our expectations. During the quarter, we sold 6,500 used vehicles down sequentially and up versus prior year. Used vehicle inventory increased to 8,900 vehicles at quarter end and remains in line with our target inventory levels. Both sales volumes and inventory levels reflect higher lease replacement and rental de-fleeting activity although used vehicle pricing declined, proceeds remain above residual value estimate fees for depreciation purposes. Slide 21 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information.

第 9 頁重點介紹了本季的二手車銷售結果。正如預期的那樣，二手車銷售的市場狀況比去年的高水準繼續走弱。與去年相比，二手拖拉機收益下降了 34%，二手卡車收益下降了 30%。環比來看，拖拉機收益下降 4%，卡車收益下降 3%，略優於我們的預期。本季度，我們售出 6,500 輛二手車，季減，但與去年同期相比有所增加。季度末二手車庫存量增至 8,900 輛，與我們的目標庫存水準保持一致。銷售量和庫存水準都反映出租賃更換和租賃減少活動的增加，儘管二手車定價下降，但出於折舊目的，收益仍高於殘值估算費用。附錄中的幻燈片 21 提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收入和當前殘值估計，供您參考。

Turning to Supply Chain on Page 10. Operating revenue increased 11%, primarily driven by the IFS and Cardinal acquisitions. Revenue growth in our automotive, consumer packaged goods and industrial verticals more than offset softer volumes in our omnichannel retail vertical. Supply Chain earnings increased by $47 million from prior year. Year-over-year comparisons benefited from a $30 million asset impairment charge in the prior year. Stronger automotive performance and recent acquisitions also benefited earnings in the quarter. Supply Chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 6.6% in the quarter, and is expected to be in line with the segment's long-term target of high single digits for the full year 2024.

轉向第 10 頁的供應鏈。我們的汽車、消費品和工業垂直領域的收入成長足以抵消我們全通路零售垂直領域的銷售疲軟。供應鏈收入較上年增加 4,700 萬美元。年比比較受益於上一年 3000 萬美元的資產減損費用。更強勁的汽車業績和最近的收購也有利於本季的收益。本季供應鏈息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比為 6.6%，預計將符合該部門 2024 年全年高個位數的長期目標。

Moving to Dedicated on Page 11. Operating revenue increased 33%, reflecting the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics. Dedicated EBT declined from prior year, reflecting acquisition integration and other related costs, as well as higher insurance costs in the quarter. EBT continued to benefit from favorable driver conditions as the number of open positions and time to fill for professional drivers improves. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 4.2% in the quarter and below the segment's high single-digit target, primarily reflecting acquisition integration and related costs.

轉向第 11 頁的專用。專用 EBT 較上年下降，反映出收購整合和其他相關成本，以及本季保險成本的上升。隨著職業司機空缺職位數量和填補時間的增加，EBT 繼續受益於有利的司機條件。本季專用 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 4.2%，低於該部門高個位數的目標，主要反映了收購整合和相關成本。

Turning to Slide 12. First quarter lease capital spending of $582 million was slightly above prior year, reflecting planned lease replacement activity and the timing of OEM deliveries. For the first quarter, rental capital spending of $79 million was below prior year, reflecting lower planned runoff investments in the quarter. For full year 2024, we're forecasting lease spending of $2.5 billion, down from prior year. We have reduced our 2024 rental capital expenditure forecast by approximately $100 million to align with our revised outlook for a more modest frontal upturn than initially expected.

轉向投影片 12。第一季度，租賃資本支出為 7,900 萬美元，低於去年同期，反映出該季度計劃徑流投資的減少。我們預計 2024 年全年租賃支出為 25 億美元，低於去年。我們將 2024 年租金資本支出預測減少了約 1 億美元，以符合我們修訂後的前景，即正面成長比最初預期更為溫和。

2024 rental spending is now expected to be approximately $450 million. Our 2024 average rental fleet is expected to be down 8%. In rental, we continue to increase capital spending on trucks versus tractors as trucks have benefited from relatively stable demand and pricing trends. At year-end 2023, trucks represented approximately 60% of our rental fleet, up from 49% in 2018. Our full year 2024 capital expenditures forecast of approximately $3.2 billion is just below prior year. We expect approximately $600 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2024, down approximately $200 million from prior year elevated pricing levels. Full year 2024 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.7 billion.

目前預計 2024 年的租金支出約為 4.5 億美元。到 2024 年，我們的平均租賃機隊預計將下降 8%。在租賃方面，我們繼續增加卡車相對於拖拉機的資本支出，因為卡車受益於相對穩定的需求和定價趨勢。截至 2023 年底，卡車約占我們租賃車隊的 60%，高於 2018 年的 49%。我們預計 2024 年二手車銷售收入約為 6 億美元，比前一年的高定價水準減少約 2 億美元。 2024 年全年淨資本支出預計約 27 億美元。

Turning to Slide 13. 2024 full year forecast for operating cash flow is unchanged at $2.4 billion, and our forecast range for free cash flow has increased to negative $175 million to $275 million. As shown, operating cash flow remained strong, driven by growth in our contractual lease, Dedicated and Supply Chain businesses, which comprise approximately 85% of Ryder's operating revenue.

轉向投影片 13。2024 年全年營運現金流預測維持在 24 億美元不變，而我們對自由現金流的預測範圍已提高至負 1.75 億美元至 2.75 億美元。如圖所示，在合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務成長的推動下，營運現金流保持強勁，這些業務約佔 Ryder 營運收入的 85%。

Our free cash flow profile has changed significantly since the implementation of our balanced growth strategy in late 2019. Lower targeted lease growth as well as COVID effects and OEM delays resulted in lower capital spending and higher free cash flow. Proceeds from the exit of the U.K. FMS business also benefited free cash flow in 2022.

自 2019 年底實施平衡成長策略以來，我們的自由現金流狀況發生了顯著變化。英國 FMS 業務退出的收益也有利於 2022 年的自由現金流。

The summary on the right side of the slide illustrates the free cash flow generated by the business prior to investing in fleet growth. In 2024, although free cash flow is expected to be negative $225 million at the midpoint of our range, free cash flow prior to investing in growth capital is expected to be positive approximately $400 million. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders. Our top priority is to continue to invest in organic growth.

幻燈片右側的摘要說明了在投資機隊成長之前企業產生的自由現金流。到 2024 年，儘管自由現金流預計為負 2.25 億美元（處於我們範圍的中點），但投資成長資本之前的自由現金流預計將為正約 4 億美元。我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變，重點是支持我們推動長期獲利成長並向股東返還資本的策略。我們的首要任務是繼續投資有機成長。

Strategic acquisitions have been a key contributor to accelerated growth in Supply Chain and Dedicated. Acquisitions have helped transform our Supply Chain business in terms of expanding capabilities to strengthen our core contractual businesses, as well as rebalancing our vertical mix. Balance sheet leverage of 246% at year-end 2023 was below our 250% to 300% target and continues to provide ample capacity to fund organic growth, strategic investments as well as to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

策略性收購是供應鏈和專用業務加速成長的關鍵因素。收購幫助我們的供應鏈業務轉型，擴大了我們的核心合約業務的能力，並重新平衡了我們的垂直組合。截至 2023 年底，資產負債表槓桿率為 246%，低於我們 250% 至 300% 的目標，並繼續提供充足的能力為有機成長、策略性投資以及透過股票回購和股息向股東返還資本提供資金。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our 2024 outlook.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給 Robert，討論我們 2024 年的展望。

Turning to Page 14.

翻到第 14 頁。

We're raising the low end of our full year 2024 comparable EPS forecast to $11.75 to $12.50 from our prior forecast of $11.50 to $12.50. This increase reflects first quarter outperformance from used vehicle sales and our maintenance cost initiatives, partially offset by weaker-than-expected market conditions in rental for the balance of the year. We've also increased our 2024 return on equity forecast to 15.5% to 16.5%, which is in line with our stated range of mid-teens during trough market conditions and low 20s during peak conditions.

我們將 2024 年全年可比每股收益預測的下限從先前的 11.50 美元至 12.50 美元上調至 11.75 美元至 12.50 美元。這一增長反映了第一季二手車銷售和我們的維護成本舉措的出色表現，部分被今年餘下的租賃市場狀況弱於預期所抵消。我們也將 2024 年股本回報率預測提高至 15.5% 至 16.5%，這與我們規定的市場低谷時期為 10 多歲、高峰時期為 20 多歲的預期範圍一致。

Freight market conditions remain challenging. We continue to believe that 2024 will reflect trough market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental and our forecast assumes a gradual pickup in the second half of 2024. Uncertain macro conditions are causing some customers and prospects in SCS to delay decisions, but we remain confident in the long-term secular growth trends in this segment.

貨運市場狀況仍充滿挑戰。我們仍然認為，2024 年二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況將處於低谷，我們的預測是2024 年下半年將逐步回升。信心該領域的長期長期成長趨勢。

We continue to believe that the transformative changes that we've made to the business will continue to drive outperformance relative to prior cycles and that all segments are well positioned to benefit from a cycle upturn. We're also providing a second quarter comparable EPS forecast of $2.75 to $2.95 versus the prior year of $3.61.

我們仍然相信，我們對業務所做的變革將繼續推動業績優於先前的周期，並且所有細分市場都處於有利位置，可以從週期好轉中受益。我們還提供第二季可比每股收益預測為 2.75 至 2.95 美元，而去年同期為 3.61 美元。

Turning to Slide 15. In addition to managing through the down cycle, we are also focused on ensuring that the business is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. The majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable operating cash flows over the cycle and each business segment has opportunities to benefit from the cycle upturn. Most of our cyclical exposure resides in Fleet Management in rental and used vehicle sales. Improved freight conditions should increase demand for these businesses.

轉向投影片 15。我們的大部分收入都是由長期合約支撐的，這些合約在整個週期內產生相對穩定和可預測的經營現金流，每個業務部門都有機會從週期好轉中受益。我們的週期性風險來自租賃和二手車銷售領域的車隊管理。貨運條件的改善應該會增加對這些業務的需求。

In rental, we intend to grow the fleet as we approach a cyclical upturn to capture the incremental revenue and margin opportunity. In used vehicle sales, we'll continue to leverage our expanded retail sales network in order to maximize proceeds with the potential to generate used vehicle gains above normalized levels. An additional opportunity on the horizon for FMS is the anticipated pre-buy activity ahead of the 2027 EPA engine technology changes. The industry is generally expecting some level of prebuy activity, given the expected impact on upfront cost and maintenance cost implications. Based on what we see today, prebuy activity could begin as soon as late 2025 as we have historically seen higher levels of fleet growth a couple of years ahead of a change.

在租賃方面，我們打算在接近週期性好轉時擴大機隊規模，以抓住增量收入和利潤機會。在二手車銷售方面，我們將繼續利用我們擴大的零售網絡，以最大限度地提高收益，並有可能產生高於正常水平的二手車收益。 FMS 即將面臨的另一個機會是 2027 年 EPA 引擎技術變革之前的預期預購活動。考慮到對前期成本和維護成本的預期影響，業界普遍預期會有一定程度的預購活動。根據我們今天看到的情況，預購活動最早可能會在 2025 年底開始，因為我們歷史上在變革前幾年就看到了更高水準的機隊成長。

We also would expect used vehicle pricing to be supported by demand for the old emission technology. Increased engine complexity and costs generally favor the outsourcing decision, which would benefit lease sales activity. In Dedicated, improved driver availability and lower recruiting and turnover costs are benefiting earnings but have been a headwind for new sales and revenue growth. As the freight cycle strengthens and driver availability becomes more challenging, we expect to see incremental sales opportunities and improved revenue growth in DTS as private fleets seek solutions to address this pain point.

我們也預計二手車定價將受到對舊排放技術的需求的支持。引擎複雜性和成本的增加通常有利於外包決策，這將有利於租賃銷售活動。在 Dedicated 領域，司機可用性的提高以及招聘和人員流動成本的降低有利於盈利，但對新銷售和收入增長構成了阻力。隨著貨運週期的加強和司機可用性變得更具挑戰性，隨著私人車隊尋求解決方案來解決這一痛點，我們預計 DTS 的銷售機會會增加，收入成長也會有所改善。

In supply chain, weaker volumes in our omnichannel retail vertical have been headwinds to revenue and earnings. We continue to believe in the long-term growth prospects for our e-commerce fulfillment and last mile delivery of big and bulky goods and have expanded our footprint to support this business. We expect supply chain results to benefit as volumes for these services recover and the incremental footprint is leveraged. We've been pleased by the overall business's outperformance during this down cycle and have appropriately positioned all 3 business segments to benefit from the cycle upturn.

在供應鏈中，我們的全通路零售垂直市場的銷售疲軟一直是營收和獲利的阻力。我們仍然相信我們的電子商務履行和大件貨物最後一英里交付的長期增長前景，並擴大了我們的足跡以支持這項業務。我們預計，隨著這些服務數量的恢復和增量足跡的利用，供應鏈績效將受益。我們對整個業務在這個下行週期中的出色表現感到高興，並適當定位了所有 3 個業務部門，以便從週期好轉中受益。

Turning to Page 16. Ryder is delivering value to our shareholders with more to come. Since implementing our balanced growth strategy, we have generated strong returns during each phase of the cycle, and the resulting diversification of the business mix has demonstrated the resiliency of the transformed model. We achieved higher highs during the 2022 up cycle and generated significantly higher returns during the 2023 down cycle relative to prior downturns.

翻到第 16 頁。自從實施平衡成長策略以來，我們在週期的每個階段都產生了強勁的回報，由此產生的業務組合多元化證明了轉型後模式的彈性。與之前的低迷時期相比，我們在 2022 年的上漲週期中實現了更高的高點，並在 2023 年的下跌週期中產生了顯著更高的回報。

In 2024, we continue to expect ROE to outperform prior cycles, despite expected trough conditions in used vehicle sales and rental. We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth supported by secular trends, our operational expertise, and ongoing momentum from multiyear initiatives. We remain committed to investing in products, capabilities and technology that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders.

儘管二手車銷售和租賃預計將出現低谷，但我們仍然預計 2024 年 ROE 將跑贏前的周期。我們繼續看到長期趨勢、我們的營運專業知識以及多年計劃的持續動力所支持的盈利增長的重大機會。我們仍然致力於投資能夠為我們的客戶和股東創造價值的產品、能力和技術。

Before we go to questions, I'd like to remind everyone that we're planning an Investor Day on June 13, in New York City, so please mark your calendars. We're planning a half-day event that will feature presentations from our business leaders and will conclude with a leadership luncheon and a solution showcase where in-person attendees can learn more about our expanded supply chain capabilities, innovative technologies such as RyderShare and the freight optimization platform under development by our Baton team, as well as innovative technologies and services that are driving Ryder's profitable growth. Advanced registration is required and is now open. More information can be found on our Investor Relations website.

在我們開始提問之前，我想提醒大家，我們計劃於 6 月 13 日在紐約市舉辦投資者日，因此請標記您的日曆。我們正在計劃舉辦半天的活動，其中將包括我們的業務領導者的演講，並以領導力午餐會和解決方案展示結束，現場與會者可以更多地了解我們擴展的供應鏈能力、RyderShare等創新技術以及我們的 Baton 團隊正在開發貨運優化平台，以及推動 Ryder 獲利成長的創新技術和服務。需提前註冊，現已開放。更多資訊可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-Q later today. We had a lot of material to cover today, so please limit yourself to one question. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue and we'll take as many as we can.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。請注意，我們預計今天晚些時候提交 10-Q。今天我們要討論的內容很多，所以請只回答一個問題。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎您回到隊列中，我們會盡可能解答。

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator.

這時候我就把它交給接線生了。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們將接受高盛 Jordan Alliger 提出的第一個問題。

Just sort of question on used truck in the rental market. I'm just curious if you have any updated thoughts on the recovery? I know the expectation be bottoming at some point as we move towards midpoint of the year.

只是關於租賃市場二手卡車的問題。我只是好奇你對恢復有什麼最新的想法嗎？我知道隨著我們接近今年中點，預期會在某個時候觸底。

And then on the rental, utilization was a little bit lower than I thought. And I know you've mentioned that it would come in weaker from your perspective too. But have you seen -- I mean do you think it's stabilized at these utilizations now and would just sort of wait for the inflection?

然後在租金方面，利用率比我想像的要低。我知道你已經提到從你的角度來看它也會變得更弱。但是你有沒有看到——我的意思是你認為它現在已經穩定在這些利用率上並且只是等待拐點？

Yes. Jordan, well, I guess as far as the cycle for rental and used trucks, we're looking at this thing, it's the longest downturn we've had in a long time, where I think over almost 2 years now. So we should be getting closer to the end of this, certainly than the beginning. We are -- we look at spot rates and spot rates seem to be bumping along the bottom. We've seen Class 8 production come down. So the balance of freight and vehicles to move that freight should be beginning to get more in balance. That's usually where you start to see things start to improve.

是的。喬丹，嗯，我想就租賃和二手卡車的周期而言，我們正在研究這個問題，這是我們很長一段時間以來最長的低迷時期，我想現在已經快兩年了。因此，我們應該更接近結束，而不是開始。我們觀察即期匯率，即期匯率似乎正在觸底。我們已經看到 8 級產量下降。因此，貨運和運輸車輛的平衡應該開始變得更加平衡。這通常是你開始看到事情開始改善的地方。

Another data point was really our used truck pricing sequentially from Q4 to Q1 declined 3% to 4%. It was an improvement, if you will, in that decline level. In the prior quarter, I think we're in double digits. So we are seeing some beginnings of maybe some stabilization there.

另一個數據點是我們的二手卡車價格從第四季到第一季連續下降了 3% 到 4%。如果你願意的話，這是對下降水準的一種改善。在上一季度，我認為我們的成長率為兩位數。因此，我們看到那裡可能出現一些穩定的開始。

In rental, as you mentioned, we're not as confident yet. I think we're not -- what we saw in the first quarter was certainly less demand than we expected. We did bring down our demand expectations for the balance of the year. We're expecting more of a modest -- more modest recovery in rental in the second half. I think, a lot of that is driven by not only that, obviously, demand hasn't come back the way we'd like, but there is an oversupply of rental trucks in the market right now, that I think the industry has done a pretty good job over time to rightsize these fleets, but this one may take a little bit longer. So we're pushing out, if you will, that increase. So that's gone into the calculus for our balance of year forecast.

在租賃方面，正如您所提到的，我們還沒有那麼有信心。我認為我們沒有——我們在第一季看到的需求肯定低於我們的預期。我們確實降低了今年剩餘時間的需求預期。我們預計下半年租金將出現更溫和的復甦。我認為，其中很大一部分原因不僅是需求沒有像我們希望的那樣恢復，而且目前市場上的租賃卡車供過於求，我認為該行業已經做到了這一點隨著時間的推移，調整這些機隊的規模是一項相當不錯的工作，但這可能需要更長的時間。所以，如果你願意的話，我們正在推遲這一增長。因此，這已納入我們的年度餘額預測的計算中。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們現在將接受 Scott Group 和 Wolfe Research 提出的下一個問題。

So I just want to follow up on the used side. So the used inventory is the highest now in a few years. So are you still -- it's not clear, are you still assuming a recovery in used price in the back half? And if we don't end up getting that, maybe can you just talk about the cushion where you stand relative to residual assumptions right now?

所以我只想跟進一下二手的情況。因此，二手庫存現在是幾年來最高的。那麼，目前還不清楚，您是否仍假設下半年二手價格會回升？如果我們最終沒有得到這一點，也許你可以談談你現在相對於剩餘假設的緩衝情況嗎？

Yes. As you said, we beat in the first quarter, and we're not assuming that beat for the balance of the year. We -- what the balance of the year has is really, I would call it kind of hitting the bottom here in the second and the third quarter and then some uptick in the fourth quarter. It's hard to tell exactly when that's going to happen. That's why we kind of pointed out at the last call, I'd repeat that again this call, that if that pickup doesn't happen, then you would see us -- that between that and rental would more likely be on the bottom end right around the bottom end of the range that we've given.

是的。正如您所說，我們在第一季取得了勝利，我們不認為今年剩餘時間也將取得勝利。我們——今年的餘額實際上是，我認為在第二季和第三季觸底，然後在第四季有所上升。很難確切地說這會在什麼時候發生。這就是為什麼我們在上次電話中指出，我會在這次電話中再次重複這一點，如果沒有發生這種情況，那麼您會看到我們 - 在這和租金之間更有可能處於最低水平就在我們給出的範圍的底部附近。

So that's kind of the -- as you asked about the cushion, that's sort of where -- the way we're seeing, obviously, depending on how the rest of the business does, but we feel really good about the contractual parts of the business. The forecast for that part of the business is really intact. The movement in the forecast has just been more related to the UBS and rental.

所以這就是——正如你問到的緩衝，這就是我們所看到的方式，顯然，取決於其他業務的表現，但我們對合約部分感覺非常好商業。這部分業務的預測確實完好無損。預測的變動與瑞銀和租金更為相關。

So actually, I just wanted to follow up there because if you look at the leasing fleet had some really good sequential growth at the end of Q1 and yet extensions are coming down and terminations are coming up. So any color there and how we should think about the leasing fleet from here?

所以實際上，我只是想跟進，因為如果你看看租賃機隊在第一季末有一些非常好的連續增長，但延期正在減少，終止即將到來。那麼那裡有什麼顏色以及我們應該如何考慮這裡的租賃機隊？

Yes. We're -- I mean, organically, because you got the Cardinal fleet in there too, which is going to increase that number. But if you think organically, we are seeing some early terminations. But if you look on that page, you're also seeing a lot of redeployment. So we do redeploy those vehicles into other customers. That's not unusual for where we are in the cycle to have a bit of a pickup there.

是的。我們——我的意思是，有機地，因為紅衣主教艦隊也在那裡，這將增加這個數字。但如果你有機地思考，我們會看到一些提前終止的情況。但如果你查看該頁面，你也會看到大量的重新部署。因此，我們確實將這些車輛重新部署給其他客戶。對於我們所處的周期來說，出現一些回升並不罕見。

I remember -- and the other thing I'd remind you is that last year, we were at historically low levels of terminations, where we still had a lot of tightness in the market. So yes, I would look at the organic fleet growth that we were expecting at the beginning of the year was on the high end of our 2,000 to 4,000. We're probably more in the low to midpoint of that growth rate, so think about 2,000 to 3,000 now. So we are getting a little bit of pressure on the growth.

我記得 - 我要提醒您的另一件事是，去年，我們的終止數量處於歷史低位，市場仍然非常緊張。所以，是的，我會看看我們年初預計的有機機隊成長是在 2,000 到 4,000 架的高端。我們可能處於該成長率的中低水平，所以現在考慮 2,000 到 3,000。因此，我們的成長面臨一些壓力。

But still, I would tell you, ChoiceLease is a significant or a meaningful contributor to our year-over-year improvement because it's not only the growth that we're seeing, but also the improvements from the lease pricing initiatives and the improvements in maintenance. Maintenance costs have been -- we're a beat in the first quarter, and we're expecting some of that to continue into the balance of the year.

但我仍然要告訴你，ChoiceLease 對我們的逐年改善做出了重要或有意義的貢獻，因為它不僅是我們所看到的成長，而且還包括租賃定價措施的改進和維護方面的改進。維護成本在第一季表現出色，我們預計其中一些成本將持續到今年剩餘時間。

I'll now take our next question from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

現在我將回答摩根大通的布萊恩‧奧森貝克提出的下一個問題。

Robert, just to follow up on the maintenance cost, obviously, a big line item. You've been focused on that a lot in the past. Is this more a continuation of things that are structural improvements pre-Cardinal and integrating that and getting leverage off of that? Or is this more of kind of like a cyclical -- there's more capacity in the system, and so it's a little bit easier and the costs are coming down. It's just deflation in general. How would you characterize that?

羅伯特，只是為了跟進維護成本，顯然，這是一個大項目。您過去一直非常關注這一點。這是否更像是卡迪納爾之前的結構性改進的延續，並將其整合並從中獲得槓桿作用？或者這更像是一種週期性——系統中有更多的容量，所以它更容易一些，成本也在下降。一般而言，這只是通貨緊縮。您如何形容這一點？

Yes. I think it's certainly the initiatives that we've been working on for multiple years. We've talked about every year. We have -- we had the $100 million multi-year initiative. And then since that every year, we've got call it, $20 million, $30 million of initiatives. So we're outperforming on some of those. Plus we're getting some disinflation or less inflation, as you mentioned, around some of those costs. And that's also helping us. So those are -- I think those are structural. Those are likely to continue certainly through the balance of the year.

是的。我認為這肯定是我們多年來一直致力於的舉措。我們每年都會談論。我們已經制定了 1 億美元的多年計劃。從那以後，我們每年都會推出 2,000 萬美元、3,000 萬美元的措施。所以我們在其中一些方面表現出色。另外，正如您所提到的，圍繞其中一些成本，我們正在經歷一些通貨緊縮或通貨膨脹減少。這也對我們有幫助。所以我認為這些是結構性的。這些情況很可能會持續到今年剩餘時間。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just for the rest of the year, maybe you can talk a little bit through pricing and just how that's coming through right now, you mentioned overcapacity. A bit on the rental side, utilization was a bit lower. How do you see the market in terms of staying disciplined and rational even though hasn't quite recovered from a spot rate perspective on a leading indicator side.

好的。這很有幫助。然後，在今年剩下的時間裡，也許你可以談談定價以及目前的情況，你提到了產能過剩。在租賃方面，使用率有點低。儘管從領先指標的即期匯率角度來看，市場尚未完全恢復，但您如何看待市場保持紀律和理性的情況？

And then just same thing on leasing would be helpful if people are pushing those out to where if you're finding still solutions for people who want to add or grow their lease book in this market?

然後，如果人們將這些推到哪裡，如果您為想要在這個市場上增加或增加租賃簿的人找到仍然的解決方案，那麼在租賃方面相同的事情也會有所幫助？

Yes. That was a good question. On rental, we're kind of flattish on rental pricing. There's certainly some pressure out there with all the excess equipment, and we've kind of -- we've been able to manage that pretty well in previous cycles, and we're still holding out pretty well here.

是的。這是一個好問題。在租賃方面，我們對租賃價格持平態度。當然，所有多餘的設備都會帶來一些壓力，而我們在先前的周期中已經能夠很好地應對這一點，而且我們在這裡仍然堅持得很好。

Around lease, certainly, you see a little bit more hesitation, customers wanting to -- whether they're not adding as much fleet certainly as they were a year or 2 ago. So we're seeing a little bit of softness there. But as I mentioned, I expect still to have within our target growth of 2,000 to 4,000.

當然，在租賃方面，你會看到更多的猶豫，客戶希望——無論他們是否不會像一年或兩年前那樣增加那麼多的機隊。所以我們看到那裡有一點疲軟。但正如我所提到的，我預計成長仍將在 2,000 至 4,000 人的目標之內。

And the pricing, the good thing about lease is that at the end of the day, you don't buy a truck until you have a signed lease. So we still are able to maintain our pricing discipline and staying within that target spread range that we've talked about of the 100, 150 basis points.

就定價而言，租賃的好處在於，歸根結底，在簽署租約之前，您不會購買卡車。因此，我們仍然能夠維持我們的定價紀律，並保持在我們談到的 100、150 個基點的目標利差範圍內。

We'll now take our next question from Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

我們現在將回答 Jeff Kauffman 和 Vertical Research Partners 提出的下一個問題。

Not to beat a dead horse, but I'm trying to figure out how to think about year-end fleet numbers in rental and lease. And I guess based on what I've heard, down about 8% in rentals, so somewhere between 33,000, 34,000 units. And lease right now, 147,000 units, but that does include Cardinal. And if I take your 2,000 to 4,000, where does that kind of leave us the end of the year on the lease fleet?

不是要打敗一匹馬，但我試圖弄清楚如何考慮租賃和租賃中的年終車隊數量。根據我所聽到的情況，我猜測租金下降了約 8%，大約在 33,000 至 34,000 套之間。現在租賃了 147,000 個單位，但這確實包括 Cardinal。如果我把你的 2,000 輛增加到 4,000 輛，到年底我們的租賃機隊會剩下多少？

And then just kind of attached to that, as we're deemphasizing tractors, and we're focusing a little bit more on trucks and on trailers, is that creating a negative mix shift in the reported RPU?

然後，當我們不再強調拖拉機，而更專注於卡車和拖車時，這是否會在報告的 RPU 中產生負面的混合變化？

Well, let me just -- on the lease side, yes, I think you've got that right. We were originally about 13,000, including the 9,300, if you will, from Cardinal. So you added the 4,000 that got us to the 13,000, we're going to be -- we should be aligned to that. We're probably going to be in that 11,000 to 12,000 range. It's a little early. It's still -- a lot can happen for the balance of the year, we could beat that. But right now, that's kind of what we were assuming for the balance of the year forecast. In terms of the pricing, what was the second half of your question? RPU?

好吧，讓我——在租賃方面，是的，我認為你說得對。我們最初大約有 13,000 人，其中包括 Cardinal 的 9,300 人（如果你願意的話）。因此，您將 4,000 人添加到 13,000 人，我們應該與此保持一致。我們可能會在 11,000 到 12,000 之間。時間有點早了。今年剩下的時間仍然會發生很多事情，我們可以打敗它。但現在，這就是我們對今年剩餘時間的預測的假設。就定價而言，您問題的後半部是什麼？路由器？

Yes, it looks like the lease RPU was actually pretty decent. I would have inspected a little bit more of a negative mix drag just based on how the component is changing. So kind of help me see through that.

是的，看起來租賃 RPU 實際上相當不錯。我會根據組件的變化來檢查更多的負混合阻力。請幫我看清這一點。

Yes. Some of that is certainly the newer equipment coming in. Remember, the big shift to trucks though is in rental, not as much in lease. So we've been making the shift to more straight trucks versus tractors has been on the rental fleet, less so on the lease fleet.

是的。其中一些肯定是新設備的加入。因此，我們一直在租賃車隊中轉向更多的直式卡車，而不是拖拉機，而租賃車隊則較少。

All right. And just to clarify your comments. So I should think of the lease fleet as being around this level for the remainder of the year in terms of total units?

好的。只是為了澄清您的評論。那麼我應該認為今年剩餘時間租賃機隊的總單位數大約在這個水平嗎？

Well, it's going to move up from this level, right? So we've added the -- we've added the Cardinal unit and then we're expecting to be up, call it, 2,000 to 3,000 units from there. So we'll get about 150,000.

嗯，它會從這個水平上升，對嗎？所以我們添加了——我們添加了基數單位，然後我們預計會從那裡增加 2,000 到 3,000 個單位。所以我們會得到大約150,000。

We'll take our next question from Justin Long with Stephens.

我們將回答賈斯汀朗和史蒂芬斯提出的下一個問題。

I wanted to ask about the recent trend in both the Dedicated and Supply Chain backlogs. Just curious how the pipeline of activity has trended year-to-date relative to what you were seeing last year? Robert, you made the point about secular tailwinds, but you also have cyclical headwinds. So I'm just curious how that's netting out in terms of the pipeline for those businesses.

我想詢問專用和供應鏈積壓的最新趨勢。只是好奇今年迄今為止的活動管道與您去年看到的相比有何趨勢？羅伯特，您提出了長期順風的觀點，但也存在週期性逆風。所以我只是好奇這對這些企業的管道來說是如何產生的。

Yes, I'll let Steve give you some updates on the pipeline. I just tell you, in rental -- I mean, in Dedicated, as we mentioned in our earlier forecast, we are expecting it to be flattish. We're seeing certainly some cyclical headwinds from just a lot -- spot rates are pretty attractive. You're seeing customers trying to take advantage of those. Availability of drivers is pretty soft. So you're able to -- companies aren't struggling as they were just a couple of years ago to find drivers. So -- but that is not unusual. It happens during the cycle. We feel confident that will come back.

是的，我會讓史蒂夫給你一些有關管道的最新消息。我只是告訴你，在租賃方面——我的意思是，在專用方面，正如我們在之前的預測中提到的，我們預計它會持平。我們確實看到了來自許多方面的一些週期性阻力——即期匯率非常有吸引力。您會看到客戶試圖利用這些優勢。驅動程式的可用性相當軟。所以你能夠——公司不再像幾年前那樣為尋找司機而苦苦掙扎。所以——但這並不罕見。它發生在周期中。我們對它會回來充滿信心。

Around supply chain, I think it's been more around the uncertainty in the economy. We're seeing customers delaying decisions. So I'll let -- and again, I think, that's also economically cyclical and you'll see so some of that coming back.

圍繞著供應鏈，我認為更多的是圍繞經濟的不確定性。我們看到客戶推遲做出決定。所以我會再次強調，我認為這也是經濟週期性的，你會看到其中一些會回來。

But Steve, why don't you give some color around...

但是史蒂夫，你為什麼不給周圍一些顏色......

Yes. Justin, I'll start with Supply Chain. I think if you look at the pipeline year-over-year, we're relatively flat as Robert said, just continued delays in decisions. Typically, it was about 6 months. Now we're seeing that extend 9 months plus. Lately, we have seen more delayed decisions so either postponing or holding opportunities right now. So I really think it's an economic outlook for the year for these customers, maybe making a network change later in the year.

是的。賈斯汀，我將從供應鏈開始。我認為，如果你逐年查看管道，你會發現正如羅伯特所說，我們相對持平，只是決策持續延遲。通常情況下，大約是 6 個月。現在我們看到延長了 9 個月以上。最近，我們看到更多延遲的決定，因此要么推遲，要么立即保留機會。所以我真的認為這對這些客戶來說是今年的經濟前景，也許會在今年稍後進行網路改變。

And then on Dedicated, we did get a pop in the pipeline year-over-year. Some of that comes from the Cardinal acquisition. But the other balance is from our marketing campaign initiatives. Same kind of story there, delayed decisions, people taking advantage of price over service right now on the Dedicated side.

然後在 Dedicated 上，我們確實逐年取得了成功。其中一些來自 Cardinal 收購。但另一個平衡來自我們的行銷活動舉措。同樣的故事，延遲的決定，人們現在在專用方面利用價格而不是服務。

We'll now take a follow-up from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

我們現在將採取斯科特集團和沃爾夫研究公司的後續行動。

So you started to talk about the prebuy coming maybe at some point next year. Where do you expect to benefit? Is that -- is it more leasing fleet growth? Is there any benefit to rental? Is it used pricing and gains? Where do you ultimately see the biggest benefit? It's been a long time since you've had a big prebuy.

所以你開始談論可能會在明年的某個時候進行預購。您期望從哪裡受益？是不是租賃機隊成長更多？出租有什麼好處嗎？是否使用過定價和收益？您最終看到最大的好處在哪裡？自從您進行大規模預購以來已經很長時間了。

Yes. I think the answer is yes to all of those. If you go back to -- starting to date myself. If you go back to 2006, so 20 years ago, and the '07 technology change was kind of similar to this one in that there was just a lot of cost increases with less operational benefits. We did see that level of prebuy, a significant level of prebuy, in late '05 and in '06. And it impacted, first of all, lease because it allows -- it basically, you have a lot more at-bats. You got companies making decisions on, I've got to replace it to my fleet. What do I do? Do I buy or lease? It gives our lease sales opportunity to win some additional market.

是的。我認為所有這些答案都是肯定的。如果你回到——開始和我自己約會。如果你回到 2006 年，也就是 20 年前，07 年的技術變革與這次技術變革有點相似，只是成本增加了很多，而營運效益卻減少了。我們確實在 05 年末和 06 年看到了這種預購水平，而且是相當高的預購水平。首先，它影響了租賃，因為它允許——基本上，你有更多的擊球次數。你們讓公司做出決定，我必須將其替換為我的機隊。我該怎麼辦？我買還是租？它為我們的租賃銷售提供了贏得一些額外市場的機會。

It helps our rental business because customers as they are waiting for new vehicles, they're going to rent and also the attractiveness of those vehicles that are pre-'07 that are in rental goes up, certainly as an opportunity for rental to lease in the out years.

這有助於我們的租賃業務，因為客戶在等待新車時會進行租賃，而且 07 年之前的租賃車輛的吸引力也會上升，這當然是租賃的機會過去的歲月。

And then on the used vehicle side, certainly, the -- and that will stretch out for multiple years. The residual -- not the residual, but the sales price of those used pre-used '27 vehicles, when they come into the used truck market should be helped significantly by the fact that they're pre-2027. If I go back to the vehicles that we sold, that were 2006, we sold those vehicles for a significant -- significantly above our residual values at the time back in 2014 and '15. So I would expect some of that to happen again through this cycle.

當然，在二手車方面，這將持續多年。剩餘——不是剩餘，而是那些使用過的‘27’二手車進入二手卡車市場時的銷售價格應該會因為它們是 2027 年之前的事實而得到顯著幫助。如果我回到 2006 年我們出售的車輛，我們以顯著高於 2014 年和 15 年時的殘值的價格出售這些車輛。所以我預計其中一些事情會在這個週期中再次發生。

That's helpful, Robert. And maybe just your other bigger picture perspective, you're right, there's this huge gap in fundamentals between what the trucking companies are saying and reporting and what the truck makers are saying and reporting. Maybe your thoughts on this disconnect? And what do you think it means for new truck pricing going forward?

這很有幫助，羅伯特。也許只是你的另一個更大的視角，你是對的，卡車運輸公司的說法和報告與卡車製造商的說法和報告之間存在著巨大的基本差距。也許您對這種脫節有何看法？您認為這對未來新卡車的定價意味著什麼？

Yes. I think it boils down to -- again, we're not in the truckload business, but I think it boils down to the spot rates, right? We manage a pretty significant book of truckload business for our customers in our Supply Chain and transportation management business and truckload rates -- spot rates have not recovered. They're bumping along the bottom, still very painful for especially the larger truckload carriers.

是的。我認為這可以歸結為——再說一遍，我們不從事卡車運輸業務，但我認為這可以歸結為即期費率，對吧？我們在供應鏈和運輸管理業務以及卡車裝載費率方面為客戶管理相當重要的整車業務——即期費率尚未恢復。它們沿著底部顛簸，對於特別是較大的卡車運輸公司來說仍然非常痛苦。

I think that's just because we haven't had enough supply of probably the smaller owner operators getting out yet. But this is -- that part of the business is cyclical. It will come back up. It's usual -- I don't know if it's darkest before the dawn, but I think we're getting there. It's just a matter of when that happens.

我認為這只是因為我們還沒有足夠的供應來讓較小的業主經營者退出。但這是——這部分業務是週期性的。它會回來的。這很平常——我不知道黎明前是否是最黑暗的，但我想我們已經到了那裡。這只是什麼時候發生的問題。

Now in the meantime, the OEMs have come off of a pretty significant period of a large backlog. I think that the backlog has definitely come down. We're seeing lead times for vehicles all have come in from where they were. And I think the OEMs are kind of managing that production now through this part of the cycle, and we feel pretty good about it.

同時，原始設備製造商已經擺脫了相當長一段時間的大量積壓訂單。我認為積壓肯定已經減少了。我們看到所有車輛的交貨時間都已恢復原狀。我認為原始設備製造商現在正在透過週期的這一部分來管理生產，我們對此感覺非常好。

So they are seeing -- they're all looking at the significant increase that they should see in late '25 and '26, for prebuy and I think are looking that is good for their industry and certainly for our business.

所以他們看到——他們都在關注 25 年末和 26 年預購的顯著增長，我認為這對他們的行業有利，當然對我們的業務有利。

We will now take a follow-up from Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

我們現在將聽取摩根大通布萊恩·奧森貝克 (Brian Ossenbeck) 的後續報道。

Just wanted to get your comments on some of the end markets and the trends you're seeing, particularly in SCS but if you want to broaden out, that would be helpful as well. And in the past, you've talked about omnichannel being a bit slow perhaps for the first quarter, first half, maybe a rebound in the second half. So auto is pretty strong. What about the rest of the verticals as you see them ramping up or not in terms of activity into the back half and into next year?

只是想聽聽您對一些終端市場和您所看到的趨勢的評論，特別是在南海，但如果您想擴大範圍，這也會有所幫助。過去，您談到全通路可能在第一季、上半年有點慢，也許下半年會反彈。所以auto還是很強大的。當您看到其他垂直行業在下半年和明年的活動方面是否有所增加時，情況又如何呢？

Again, I'll let Steve give you some color there. But certainly on the e-commerce omnichannel, there's 2 things going on, right? We're looking for an improvement in the demand there, still pretty soft. We're also trying to rightsize the business where we can and adjust to the cost structure as best we can. So we're certainly looking for that to have some benefit in the second half. But the other parts of the business, if you looked at the results for the quarter was still growing pretty strong.

再次，我會讓史蒂夫給你一些顏色。但在電子商務全通路上，肯定有兩件事正在發生，對吧？我們正在尋求那裡的需求有所改善，但仍然相當疲軟。我們也盡力調整業務規模，並盡可能調整成本結構。因此，我們當然希望這能在下半年帶來一些好處。但如果你看看本季的業績，該業務的其他部分仍然成長相當強勁。

But Steve, why don't you give a little more color?

但是史蒂夫，你為什麼不多一點色彩呢？

Yes, Brian, we're seeing continued volume in the automotive sector and industrial. So I think, pretty decent outlooks there. CPG, with the acquisition of IFS, certainly, that's an area that we need to cross-sell and upsell to our core CPG customers.

是的，布萊恩，我們看到汽車產業和工業領域的銷售持續成長。所以我認為，那裡的前景相當不錯。 CPG，透過收購 IFS，當然，這是我們需要向核心 CPG 客戶進行交叉銷售和追加銷售的領域。

And I think, as Robert said, in omnichannel, it's really a volume play. If you think about the e-com business and the last mile business. So when the economy turns back around, we're ready to go sell that business.

我認為，正如羅伯特所說，在全通路中，這確實是一個規模遊戲。如果你想想電子商務業務和最後一哩業務。因此，當經濟好轉時，我們準備出售該業務。

At this time, there are no additional questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給羅伯特·桑切斯先生致閉幕詞。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Well, just as a final reminder, June 13 in New York is our Investor Day. So I certainly hope to see all of you there and look forward to giving you a more thorough review of all the good things going on at Ryder and what our outlook is, not just for this year, but going forward.

最後提醒一下，紐約的 6 月 13 日是我們的投資者日。因此，我當然希望在那裡見到你們所有人，並期待著讓你們更全面地回顧萊德發生的所有美好事情以及我們的前景，不僅是今年的前景，而且是未來的前景。

And once again, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議再次結束。我們感謝大家的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。