萊德系統 (R) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Release Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.

早上好，歡迎參加 Ryder System 2023 年第二季度收益發布電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。 （操作員須知）現在我想介紹一下Ryder投資者關係副總裁Calene Candela女士。坎德拉女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.

謝謝。早上好，歡迎參加 Ryder 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。我想提醒您，在本演講中，您將聽到一些 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述基於管理層當前的預期，並可能受到不確定性和變化的影響。情況。由於經濟、商業、競爭、市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更多詳細信息以及每項非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的調節，請參閱今天上午的收益報告、收益電話會議演示以及 Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（可在 Ryder 網站上獲取）。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Diez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官羅伯特·桑切斯 (Robert Sanchez)；執行副總裁兼首席財務官約翰·迪茲 (John Diez)。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens 表示：供應鏈解決方案和專用運輸解決方案總裁 Steve Sensing 今天接聽了電話，並可以回答演示後的問題。這個時候，我會把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm very proud of the strong second quarter results delivered by our team despite challenging freight conditions. As many of you know, several years ago, we adopted a balanced growth strategy and have since been focused on its execution. As we'll discuss on today's call, the transformative changes we've made to derisk our business model, enhance returns and free cash flow and drive long-term profitable growth have significantly increased the earnings and return profile of the company even in the market conditions we're currently seeing. Results for the quarter were above our forecast, reflecting better-than-expected performance in all 3 business segments.

大家早上好，感謝您加入我們。儘管貨運條件充滿挑戰，但我們團隊在第二季度取得了強勁的業績，我對此感到非常自豪。正如你們許多人所知，幾年前，我們採取了平衡增長戰略，並一直專注於其執行。正如我們將在今天的電話會議上討論的那樣，我們為降低業務模式風險、提高回報和自由現金流以及推動長期盈利增長而做出的變革，即使在市場上也顯著提高了公司的盈利和回報狀況我們目前看到的情況。本季度的業績高於我們的預期，反映出所有 3 個業務部門的業績均好於預期。

I'll begin today's call by providing you with a strategic update. John will then take you through our second quarter results. We'll then discuss our outlook.

我將首先向大家提供戰略更新信息來開始今天的電話會議。然後約翰將帶您了解我們第二季度的業績。然後我們將討論我們的前景。

Let's begin on Slide 4. Our strong year-to-date performance and increased forecast provide clear evidence that our balanced growth strategy is working. We've executed transformative changes that have increased the earnings and return profile of the business. Our updated model is proving to be more resilient than prior cycles. We see incremental opportunity ahead from our initiatives, as well as the secular trends that continue to favor transportation and logistics outsourcing.

讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始。我們年初至今的強勁業績和上調的預測提供了明確的證據，表明我們的平衡增長戰略正在發揮作用。我們實施了革命性的變革，提高了企業的盈利和回報率。事實證明，我們的更新模型比之前的周期更具彈性。我們看到了我們的舉措帶來的更多機遇，以及繼續有利於運輸和物流外包的長期趨勢。

We remain focused on enhancing returns. Above target ROE of 24% for the trailing 12-month period reflects elevated market conditions in FMS during the second half of 2022 as well as the benefits from our initiatives. These initiatives include pricing and cost recovery actions, which benefited returns in all segments. Our outlook for ROE remains strong, and we expect to end 2023 in line with our high-teens target despite weak freight conditions.

我們仍然專注於提高回報。過去 12 個月期間高於 24% 的 ROE 目標反映了 2022 年下半年 FMS 市場狀況的改善以及我們的舉措所帶來的好處。這些舉措包括定價和成本回收行動，這有利於所有細分市場的回報。我們對 ROE 的前景依然強勁，儘管貨運狀況疲軟，但我們預計 2023 年年底將達到我們的高雙位數目標。

All 3 business segments achieved target EBT margins during the quarter, and our enhanced asset management playbook has enabled us to generate higher earnings in each phase of the cycle. We've recently announced a 15% increase in our quarterly dividends, which demonstrates our confidence in the long-term earnings generation of the model. Our strong balance sheet and solid investment-grade credit rating continue to provide us with ample capacity to pursue targeted acquisitions and investments as well as return capital to shareholders.

所有 3 個業務部門在本季度均實現了目標 EBT 利潤率，我們增強的資產管理策略使我們能夠在周期的每個階段產生更高的收益。我們最近宣布將季度股息增加 15%，這表明我們對該模型的長期盈利能力充滿信心。我們強大的資產負債表和可靠的投資級信用評級繼續為我們提供充足的能力進行有針對性的收購和投資以及向股東返還資本。

We repurchased 1.1 million shares during the quarter under our repurchase programs. Since the beginning of 2021, we've repurchased approximately 15% of our outstanding shares. We're encouraged to see the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries because it's allowing us to fulfill these contracts sooner. Our capital expenditures have increased as a result of these earlier deliveries, which in turn has lowered our expected free cash flow for the year.

本季度我們根據回購計劃回購了 110 萬股股票。自 2021 年初以來，我們回購了約 15% 的已發行股票。我們很高興看到 OEM 交付時間的加快，因為這使我們能夠更快地履行這些合同。由於提前交付，我們的資本支出增加，這反過來又降低了我們今年的預期自由現金流。

Slide 5 illustrates the increased earnings and return profile that has resulted from our business model transformation. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, we generated comparable earnings per share of $5.95 and return on equity of 13%. This was during peak freight cycle conditions. At that time, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS. Supply chain revenue had a 3-year growth rate of 16%. Operating cash flow was $1.7 billion.

幻燈片 5 說明了我們的業務模式轉型帶來的收入和回報的增加。 2018 年，在實施平衡增長戰略之前，我們的可比每股收益為 5.95 美元，股本回報率為 13%。這是在貨運週期高峰期。當時，我們 84 億美元的收入大部分來自 FMS。供應鏈收入三年增長率為16%。運營現金流為 17 億美元。

Now let's look at Ryder today. In 2023, during a freight cycle downturn, our updated model is expected to generate meaningfully higher earnings and returns than it did during the 2018 freight cycle peak. Comparable earnings per share is expected to be $12.20 to $12.70 compared to $5.95 in 2018. And return on equity is expected to be in our high-teens target range, well above the 13% generated in 2018.

現在讓我們看看今天的萊德。 2023 年，在貨運週期低迷時期，我們更新後的模型預計將產生比 2018 年貨運週期高峰期間顯著更高的收益和回報。可比每股收益預計為 12.20 美元至 12.70 美元，而 2018 年為 5.95 美元。股本回報率預計將在我們的高雙位數目標範圍內，遠高​​於 2018 年的 13%。

Our revenue mix has shifted towards Supply Chain and Dedicated, with 55% of 2023 revenue expected from these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018. Supply chain growth rate is expected to increase to 24%. As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease, Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses, operating cash flow is expected to increase to $2.5 billion this year. As illustrated here, the business is outperforming prior cycles, even when comparing prior peak to current downturn conditions. I'm proud and encouraged by the results of our transformation thus far. And I'm confident that there will be incremental benefits beyond 2023.

我們的收入結構已轉向供應鍊和專用業務，預計 2023 年收入的 55% 來自這些輕資產業務，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。供應鏈增長率預計將增至 24%。由於我們的合同租賃、供應鍊和專用業務的盈利增長，預計今年的運營現金流將增至 25 億美元。如圖所示，即使將之前的高峰與當前的低迷狀況進行比較，該業務的表現也優於之前的周期。迄今為止我們的轉型成果令我感到自豪和鼓舞。我相信 2023 年之後將會帶來更多的好處。

Slide 6 highlights key areas of focus for our balanced growth strategy and the actions we've taken to transform the business. Reducing the reliance on used vehicle proceeds needed to achieve ChoiceLease returns has been a key initiative to derisk our business model. Our pricing residuals today are approximately 40% lower than they were in 2017, resulting in higher cash flows coming from more stable and predictable lease payments rather than more cyclical used vehicle proceeds. This has been a key driver of higher lease performance. We've optimized our FMS business mix by exiting our sub-performing U.K. and lease liability insurance businesses.

幻燈片 6 重點介紹了我們平衡增長戰略的重點關注領域以及我們為業務轉型所採取的行動。減少對實現 ChoiceLease 回報所需的二手車收益的依賴，是降低我們業務模式風險的一項關鍵舉措。目前，我們的定價殘差比 2017 年低約 40%，因此更高的現金流來自更穩定和可預測的租賃付款，而不是更具週期性的二手車收益。這是提高租賃業績的關鍵驅動因素。我們通過退出表現不佳的英國和租賃責任保險業務來優化我們的 FMS 業務組合。

Returns on our ChoiceLease portfolio have been enhanced by expanding pricing spreads that have resulted in better aligning price with customer segmentation. We continue to expect incremental benefit from our overall lease pricing initiative, as approximately 70% of our lease portfolio has been priced under our updated model, and an additional 10% is under contract and awaiting vehicle delivery. This initiative is expected to be fully implemented by 2025, with an estimated total annual benefit of $125 million.

通過擴大定價價差，我們的 ChoiceLease 投資組合的回報得到了提高，從而使價格更好地與客戶細分保持一致。我們繼續預計我們的整體租賃定價舉措將帶來增量收益，因為我們約 70% 的租賃組合已根據更新的模型定價，另外 10% 已簽訂合同並等待車輛交付。該舉措預計到 2025 年全面實施，預計年度效益總額達 1.25 億美元。

Results are also benefiting from our multiyear maintenance cost savings initiatives, which have generated over $100 million in annual savings today compared to 2018. Moderate lease growth at higher returns has increased our expected free cash flow, with positive free cash flow expected in most years and over the cycle. Higher lease fleet growth targets and related capital expenditures prior to the balanced growth strategy pressured historical free cash flow. A key component of our balanced growth strategy has been to accelerate growth in our higher-return, asset-light Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses. As a result of several strategic acquisitions, investments in technology and new product development as well as secular trends that favor logistics outsourcing, 55% of our 2023 revenue is expected to come from our asset-light Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses, as mentioned earlier.

結果還得益於我們多年的維護成本節約計劃，與 2018 年相比，如今每年節省了超過 1 億美元。回報率較高的適度租賃增長增加了我們的預期自由現金流，預計在大多數年份和過循環。在平衡增長戰略之前較高的租賃機隊增長目標和相關資本支出給歷史自由現金流帶來了壓力。我們平衡增長戰略的一個關鍵組成部分是加速我們高回報、輕資產的供應鍊和專用業務的增長。如前所述，由於多項戰略收購、對技術和新產品開發的投資以及有利於物流外包的長期趨勢，預計我們 2023 年收入的 55% 將來自我們的輕資產供應鍊和專用業務。

Our 3-year revenue growth rate for supply chain has increased from 16% in 2018 to 24% today. Overall, the transformative changes we've made to the business are improving returns and positioning our business for long-term profitable growth. I'll turn the call over to John to review our second quarter performance.

我們供應鏈的3年收入增長率從2018年的16%上升到今天的24%。總體而言，我們對業務所做的變革正在提高回報，並使我們的業務實現長期盈利增長。我會將電話轉給約翰，以審查我們第二季度的業績。

Thanks, Robert. Total company results for the second quarter are on Page 7. Operating revenue of $2.3 billion in the second quarter, up 1% from the prior year, primarily reflects revenue growth in Supply Chain and Dedicated, partially offset by the FMS U.K. exit. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.61 in the second quarter, down from a record $4.43 in the prior year, reflecting expected weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental.

謝謝，羅伯特。公司第二季度總體業績見第 7 頁。第二季度營業收入為 23 億美元，比上年增長 1%，主要反映了供應鍊和專用業務的收入增長，但部分被 FMS 英國退出所抵消。第二季度持續經營業務的每股可比收益為 3.61 美元，低於上一年創紀錄的 4.43 美元，反映出二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況預期疲軟。

As we discussed in our prior calls, GAAP EPS in the second quarter was impacted by a onetime noncash cumulative currency translation charge related to the exit of our U.K. business. Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 24% and remained above our high-teens target, reflecting elevated used vehicle sales and rental market conditions in the second half of 2022 as well as our returns initiatives. Year-to-date free cash flow decreased to $16 million from $551 million in the prior year due to increased capital expenditures and lower used vehicle sales proceeds.

正如我們在之前的電話會議中討論的那樣，第二季度的 GAAP 每股收益受到與我們英國業務退出相關的一次性非現金累積貨幣換算費用的影響。我們的主要財務指標股本回報率為 24%，仍高於我們的高位目標，反映出 2022 年下半年二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況的上升以及我們的回報舉措。由於資本支出增加和二手車銷售收入減少，年初至今的自由現金流從上一年的 5.51 億美元減少至 1600 萬美元。

Turning to FMS results on Page 8. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue decreased 4% as a result of exiting the U.K. Operating revenue in North America was unchanged, as higher SelectCare and ChoiceLease offset by lower rental demand. Pretax earnings in Fleet Management were $180 million and down year-over-year as anticipated. Prior year results reflect record pretax earnings in Fleet Management, largely due to elevated market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental.

轉向第 8 頁的 FMS 業績。由於退出英國，車隊管理解決方案的營業收入下降了 4%。北美的營業收入沒有變化，因為 SelectCare 和 ChoiceLease 的增長被租賃需求的下降所抵消。車隊管理部門的稅前收益為 1.8 億美元，同比下降，符合預期。去年的業績反映了車隊管理部門創紀錄的稅前收益，這主要是由於二手車銷售和租賃的市場狀況有所改善。

Lower used vehicle pricing in the quarter was partially offset by higher sales volumes. Rental utilization on the power fleet of 75% was in our mid- to high-70s range, but down from prior year record levels of 85%. Lower utilization was partially offset by a 2% increase in power fleet pricing. Despite a weaker used vehicle sales and rental environment, Fleet Management EBT as a percent of operating revenue remained strong at 14.4% in the second quarter, above the segment's long-term target of low double digits. For the trailing 12-month period, it was also above target at 17.2%.

本季度二手車價格下降被銷量上升部分抵消。電力機隊的租金利用率為 75%，處於 70 年代中上水平，但低於去年 85% 的創紀錄水平。電力利用率上漲 2%，部分抵消了利用率的下降。儘管二手車銷售和租賃環境疲軟，第二季度車隊管理EBT佔營業收入的百分比仍然強勁，達到14.4%，高於該部門低兩位數的長期目標。過去 12 個月的增長率也高於 17.2% 的目標。

Page 9 highlights used vehicles sales results in North America for the quarter. As anticipated, market conditions for used vehicle sales continue to normalize from elevated levels in the prior year. Compared with prior year, used tractor proceeds declined 41%, and used truck proceeds declined 34%, reflecting weaker freight conditions. On a sequential basis, proceeds for tractors decreased 15% and proceeds for trucks decreased 14%, both generally in line with expectations.

第 9 頁重點介紹了本季度北美的二手車銷售結果。正如預期的那樣，二手車銷售的市場狀況從上一年的高水平繼續正常化。與去年相比，二手拖拉機收入下降了 41%，二手卡車收入下降了 34%，反映出貨運狀況疲軟。環比來看，拖拉機收益下降 15%，卡車收益下降 14%，兩者基本符合預期。

During the quarter, we sold 5,500 used vehicles, up sequentially and versus prior year. Used vehicle inventory increased to 7,000 vehicles at quarter-end and is in line with our target inventory levels of 7,000 to 9,000 units. Increased sales volumes and inventory levels reflect higher lease replacement and rental de-fleeting activity. Although used vehicle pricing declined, proceeds remain above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 20 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information.

本季度，我們銷售了 5,500 輛二手車，比去年同期有所增長。季度末二手車庫存增至 7,000 輛，符合我們 7,000 至 9,000 輛的目標庫存水平。銷量和庫存水平的增加反映了租賃更換和租賃減少活動的增加。儘管二手車定價下降，但收益仍高於用於折舊目的的剩餘價值估計。附錄中的幻燈片 20 提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收入和當前殘值估計，供您參考。

Turning to supply chain on Page 10. Operating revenue increased 8%, reflecting new business, higher volumes and increased pricing. Double-digit revenue increases in automotive, CPG and industrial verticals more than offset the softer volumes in omnichannel retail. Supply chain EBT increased 23%, reflecting revenue growth and lower incentive-based compensation costs as well as prior-year customer accommodation charges, which also benefited earnings comparisons. These items were partially offset by lower volumes in the omnichannel retail vertical. Supply Chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 8.7% in the quarter, returning to the segment's high-single-digit target range as profitable growth more than offset lower omnichannel volumes.

轉向第 10 頁的供應鏈。營業收入增長 8%，反映出新業務、銷量增加和定價上漲。汽車、消費品和工業垂直領域的兩位數收入增長足以抵消全渠道零售銷量的疲軟。供應鏈 EBT 增長了 23%，反映出收入增長和基於激勵的薪酬成本以及上年客戶住宿費用的降低，這也有利於盈利比較。這些項目被全渠道零售垂直領域的銷量下降部分抵消。本季度供應鏈息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比為 8.7%，回到該細分市場的高個位數目標範圍，因為利潤增長足以抵消全渠道銷量的下降。

Moving to Dedicated on Page 11. Operating revenue increased 7%, reflecting inflationary pricing and higher volumes. Dedicated EBT increased 43%, primarily due to operating revenue growth and improved labor productivity. We continue to see improvement in the number of open positions and time-to-fill for our professional drivers. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue of 10.3% was above the segment's high-single-digit target. During the quarter, we saw slower contract sales activity in Dedicated, consistent with a softer freight environment. As we discussed last quarter, we expect Dedicated sales activity to moderate for the remainder of the year and expect segment revenue growth to be below our high-single-digit target range. Dedicated remains on track to achieve its high-single-digit target for segment pretax earnings.

轉到第 11 頁的“專用”。營業收入增長 7%，反映出通貨膨脹的定價和銷量的增加。專用EBT增長43%，主要得益於營業收入增長和勞動生產率提高。我們繼續看到專業司機的空缺職位數量和填補時間有所改善。專用 EBT 佔營業收入的 10.3% 高於該部門的高個位數目標。本季度，我們看到 Dedicated 的合同銷售活動放緩，這與貨運環境疲軟相一致。正如我們上季度討論的那樣，我們預計今年剩餘時間內專用銷售活動將放緩，並預計該部門收入增長將低於我們的高個位數目標範圍。 Dedicated 仍有望實現其稅前利潤的高個位數目標。

Turning to Slide 12. Year-to-date, lease capital spending of $1.4 billion was up from prior year, reflecting increased lease replacement and growth activity, as well as the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries in the quarter. Year-to-date rental capital spending of $310 million was below prior year as planned. Our 2023 forecast for lease capital spending of $2.6 billion reflects higher lease replacement and growth capital versus prior year. Although we now expect the ending lease fleet to be up 7,000 to 8,000 vehicles versus prior year, due to the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries, ending active fleet is expected to be up by approximately 4,000 vehicles.

轉向幻燈片 12。年初至今，租賃資本支出比上年增加了 14 億美元，反映出租賃更換和增長活動的增加，以及本季度 OEM 交付時間的加快。年初至今的租金資本支出為 3.1 億美元，低於去年的計劃。我們對 2023 年租賃資本支出的預測為 26 億美元，反映出與上一年相比更高的租賃替換和增長資本。儘管我們現在預計期末租賃車隊將比去年增加 7,000 至 8,000 輛汽車，但由於 OEM 交付時間加快，期末活躍車隊預計將增加約 4,000 輛。

In rental, our ending fleet is now expected to be down 11% or 4,600 vehicles, reflecting higher rental redeployment activity. Our average fleet is anticipated to be down slightly from 2022. Our full year 2023 capital expenditures forecast increased to approximately $3.2 billion due to the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries. We continue to expect proceeds from the sale of used vehicles of approximately $800 million in 2023, below prior year, which included $400 million of proceeds related to the U.K. exit. Full year 2023 net capital expenditures are now expected to be approximately $2.4 billion.

在租賃方面，我們的期末車隊目前預計將減少 11%，即 4,600 輛，反映出租賃重新部署活動的增加。我們的平均機隊預計將較 2022 年略有下降。由於 OEM 交付時間的加快，我們 2023 年全年資本支出預測增加至約 32 億美元。我們仍然預計 2023 年二手車銷售收入約為 8 億美元，低於去年，其中包括與英國脫歐相關的 4 億美元收入。目前預計 2023 年全年淨資本支出約為 24 億美元。

Turning to Slide 13. We've decreased our 2023 forecast for free cash flow by approximately $100 million to reflect the accelerated timing of OEM deliveries and the corresponding increase to lease capital expenditures. The forecast for operating cash flow increased to $2.5 billion. As shown, the trajectory of our cash flow continues to improve over time, reflecting growth in our contractual supply chain, dedicated and lease businesses, which comprised approximately 85% of Ryder's operating revenue.

轉向幻燈片 13。我們將 2023 年自由現金流預測降低了約 1 億美元，以反映 OEM 交付時間的加快以及租賃資本支出的相應增加。運營現金流預測上調至 25 億美元。如圖所示，隨著時間的推移，我們的現金流軌跡持續改善，反映出我們的合同供應鏈、專用和租賃業務的增長，這些業務約佔 Ryder 營業收入的 85%。

Our free cash flow profile has changed significantly since the implementation of our balanced growth strategy. Since 2020, lower targeted lease growth as well as COVID effects and OEM delays resulted in lower capital spending and higher free cash flow. Proceeds from the exit of the U.K. FMS business also benefited free cash flow in 2022. The summary on the right side of the slide illustrates the strong free cash flow generated by the business prior to investing in fleet growth.

自實施平衡增長戰略以來，我們的自由現金流狀況發生了顯著變化。自 2020 年以來，較低的目標租賃增長以及新冠疫情影響和 OEM 延誤導致資本支出減少和自由現金流增加。英國 FMS 業務退出的收益也有利於 2022 年的自由現金流。幻燈片右側的摘要說明了該業務在投資機隊增長之前產生的強勁自由現金流。

In 2023, we expect to generate approximately $100 million of free cash flow. And prior to investing in growth capital, this number is expected to be approximately $500 million. Our capital allocation priorities continue to support our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth. Our top priority is to continue to invest in organic growth.

到 2023 年，我們預計將產生約 1 億美元的自由現金流。在投資成長資本之前，這一數字預計約為 5 億美元。我們的資本配置優先事項繼續支持我們推動長期盈利增長的戰略。我們的首要任務是繼續投資於有機增長。

We'll continue to pursue targeted acquisitions, which have been a key contributor to accelerate growth in supply chain. Acquisitions have helped transform our supply chain business, both in terms of expanding capabilities as well as rebalancing our vertical mix. Balance sheet leverage of 211% was below our 250% to 300% target and provides ample capacity to fund organic growth and targeted acquisitions as well as to return capital to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends.

我們將繼續進行有針對性的收購，這是加速供應鏈增長的關鍵因素。收購幫助我們的供應鏈業務實現了轉型，無論是在擴展能力還是在重新平衡我們的垂直組合方面。 211% 的資產負債表槓桿率低於我們 250% 至 300% 的目標，為有機增長和有針對性的收購提供資金以及通過股票回購和股息向股東返還資本提供了充足的能力。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our enhanced asset management playbook and outlook.

接下來，我會將電話轉回羅伯特，討論我們增強的資產管理策略和前景。

Thanks, John. Page 14 provides key highlights from our enhanced asset management playbook, which is focused on optimizing returns over the cycle from our transactional, used vehicle sales and rental businesses. In response to weakening used vehicle and rental demand, we're redeploying underutilized rental vehicles to fulfill Lease, Dedicated and Supply Chain contracts. In 2023, we expect to redeploy between 3,000 and 4,000 units to align our rental fleet with demand conditions. This elevated level of redeployment activity is enabling us to fulfill these contracts sooner and is also contributing to higher lease fleet growth.

謝謝，約翰。第 14 頁提供了我們增強型資產管理手冊的主要亮點，該手冊的重點是優化我們的交易、二手車銷售和租賃業務的周期回報。為了應對二手車和租賃需求的疲軟，我們正在重新部署未充分利用的租賃車輛來履行租賃、專用和供應鏈合同。到 2023 年，我們預計將重新部署 3,000 至 4,000 輛，以使我們的租賃車隊與需求條件保持一致。重新部署活動水平的提高使我們能夠更快地履行這些合同，也有助於提高租賃機隊的增長。

Rental utilization for the full year 2023 is expected to be within the target range of mid- to high-70s. In used vehicle sales, we're leveraging our expanded retail sales network. Since 2019, we've increased our retail sales capacity by approximately 50% by adding physical locations and increasing our inside sales team to capture digital sales opportunities. Increasing retail sales volumes benefits results, as wholesale proceeds have historically been at a 30% discount to retail proceeds.

2023 年全年的租金利用率預計將在 70 多美元的目標範圍內。在二手車銷售方面，我們正在利用我們擴大的零售網絡。自 2019 年以來，我們通過增加實體店和增加內部銷售團隊來抓住數字銷售機會，將零售能力提高了約 50%。零售量的增加有利於業績，因為歷史上批發收入比零售收入有 30% 的折扣。

And finally, we continue to shift our vehicle mix in rental towards trucks, where we see stronger demand trends that have historically been more resilient than those of tractors. By year-end 2023, we expect that trucks will be approximately 60% of the North American rental fleet, up from 49% in 2018. Although earnings are impacted by the freight environment, successful execution of our enhanced asset management playbook is generating higher earnings in each phase of the cycle.

最後，我們繼續將租賃車輛結構轉向卡車，我們看到卡車的需求趨勢更強勁，而且歷史上比拖拉機更具彈性。到 2023 年底，我們預計卡車將佔北美租賃車隊的約 60%，高於 2018 年的 49%。儘管收益受到貨運環境的影響，但我們增強的資產管理策略的成功執行正在產生更高的收益在周期的每個階段。

Turning to Page 15. We're raising our full year 2023 comparable EPS forecast range to $12.20 to $12.70, up from the prior range of $11.30 to $12.05. Our increased forecast reflects better-than-expected year-to-date results in used vehicle sales, ongoing maintenance cost improvements and supply chain automotive performance, partially offset by softer conditions in omnichannel retail. Full year 2023 GAAP EPS forecast includes approximately $3.96 from the cumulative currency translation that was recorded in this quarter. We're also providing third quarter comparable EPS forecast of $3 to $3.25 versus the prior year of $4.45. Our 2023 return on equity forecast has increased to 17% to 19% from 16% to 18%, in line with our long-term high-teens target. We expect strong earnings in 2023, although down from the prior year as market conditions and used vehicle sales and rental declined from elevated levels in 2022.

轉向第 15 頁。我們將 2023 年全年可比每股收益預測範圍從之前的 11.30 美元至 12.05 美元上調至 12.20 美元至 12.70 美元。我們上調的預測反映了今年迄今二手車銷售、持續維護成本改善和供應鏈汽車績效好於預期的結果，但部分被全渠道零售疲軟的狀況所抵消。 2023 年全年 GAAP 每股收益預測包括本季度記錄的累計貨幣換算得出的約 3.96 美元。我們還提供第三季度可比每股收益預測，為 3 至 3.25 美元，而上年同期為 4.45 美元。我們對 2023 年股本回報率的預測從 16% 至 18% 提高至 17% 至 19%，符合我們的長期高雙位數目標。我們預計 2023 年的盈利將強勁，儘管由於市場狀況以及二手車銷售和租金較 2022 年的高水平有所下降，盈利將較上年有所下降。

Turning to Page 16. We believe Ryder is well positioned to increase shareholder value. We see significant opportunity for profitable growth supported by secular trends, our operational expertise and ongoing momentum for our multiyear initiatives. We've made transformative changes to our business model and continue to demonstrate strong execution on our balanced growth strategy, which has positioned us to achieve our long-term targets, increase business model resiliency and outperform prior cycles.

翻到第 16 頁。我們相信 Ryder 已做好充分準備來增加股東價值。我們看到了長期趨勢、我們的運營專業知識和我們多年計劃的持續動力所支持的盈利增長的重大機會。我們對業務模式進行了變革，並繼續表現出對平衡增長戰略的強大執行力，這使我們能夠實現長期目標，提高業務模式彈性並超越之前的周期。

We remain committed to investing in products, capabilities and technologies that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-Q later today. We had a lot of material to cover today, so please limit yourself to 1 question each. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue and we'll take as many as we can. At this point, I'll turn it over to the operator.

我們仍然致力於投資能夠為我們的客戶和股東創造價值的產品、能力和技術。我們準備好的發言到此結束。請注意，我們預計今天晚些時候提交 10-Q。今天我們要討論的內容很多，因此請將每個問題限制在 1 個以內。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎您回到隊列中，我們會盡可能多地解答。此時，我會將其交給操作員。

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We'll take your first question from Jordan Alliger from Gordon -- Goldman Sachs.

謝謝。 （操作員說明）我們將從高盛戈登的喬丹·阿利格（Jordan Alliger）那裡回答您的第一個問題。

Supply Chain margin had a really, really nice pickup sequentially year-over-year. Can you -- I know you touched on it a little bit. Can you maybe delve into it a little bit more, the keys to success in that ramp? And really, what the key few points are to sustain margins at your target levels, especially given presumably over the next year or two, the pipeline should be pretty robust. So I imagine it's sort of a trade-off. We're basically trying to assess how much business to take on, how to price it, the margin, et cetera. So since that's sort of been a key focal point for you guys, this asset-light shift, some color on that would be great.

供應鏈利潤率同比出現了非常非常好的回升。你能——我知道你稍微觸及過這個問題。您能否進一步深入研究一下，在斜坡上取得成功的關鍵？實際上，關鍵的幾點是將利潤率維持在目標水平，特別是考慮到未來一兩年的情況，管道應該相當強勁。所以我想這是一種權衡。我們基本上是在嘗試評估要承擔多少業務、如何定價、利潤率等等。因此，既然這對你們來說是一個關鍵焦點，那麼這種輕資產的轉變，一些顏色就會很棒。

Yes. Thanks, Jordan. Just to remind everybody, our target for profitability on Supply Chain is at high single digits. So we're really pleased to be there this quarter and certainly expect to be there for the balance of the year. And that's really a result of not just the pricing of new business, but also the work we've done over the last year to make sure that we had passed through the cost increases that we needed to, especially in our automotive business.

是的。謝謝，喬丹。只是提醒大家，我們供應鏈的盈利目標是高個位數。因此，我們非常高興能夠在本季度實現這一目標，並且當然希望在今年餘下的時間裡也能實現這一目標。這實際上不僅是新業務定價的結果，也是我們去年所做工作的結果，以確保我們已經度過了所需的成本增加，特別是在我們的汽車業務中。

So this quarter was really more a story about automotive getting back to where it needed to be. We still have some headwinds in our omnichannel retail business, which we expect over time, as we work through that, and we continue to see growth in that area, that will pick up also. So we feel good about the opportunity and the -- our ability to continue to grow the top line in Supply Chain, both organically and through acquisitions. And with that, continue to grow the bottom line.

因此，本季度實際上更多的是關於汽車業回到其需要的狀態的故事。我們的全渠道零售業務仍然面臨一些阻力，我們預計隨著時間的推移，隨著我們的努力，我們將繼續看到該領域的增長，而且也會有所回升。因此，我們對這個機會和我們繼續通過有機方式和收購來增長供應鏈收入的能力感到滿意。以此為基礎，繼續增加利潤。

(Operator Instructions) We'll move next to Scott Group from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們將轉到 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Group 旁邊。

Robert, I know it's probably a bit early, but how do you think about the puts and takes for earnings next year? I don't know, any thoughts on gains, depreciation, anything else? Ultimately, I guess I'm trying to figure out, like -- is your view of normalized earnings that you've given us in the past, is that view changing at all? And then just maybe bigger picture, like obviously, the stock's at a pretty low valuation, I'm just wondering what the things that you and the Board are discussing in thoughts of creating more shareholder value.

羅伯特，我知道現在可能有點早，但是您如何看待明年的看漲期權和看跌期權收益？我不知道，你對收益、貶值還有什麼想法嗎？最終，我想我想弄清楚，比如——你對過去給我們的正常化收益的看法是否有改變？然後也許是更大的圖景，顯然，股票的估值相當低，我只是想知道你和董事會正在討論什麼，以創造更多的股東價值。

Yes. So Scott, as we -- as you look at next year, I mean, we're going to come off of, I would say, exit the year with strong earnings and revenue growth. Obviously, down year-over-year primarily because of the used vehicles and rental, but growth in really the contractual parts of the business. As we go into next year, I would expect Lease will be a bigger contributor to the earnings next year, because this year, it's really been more towards the tail-end of the year that we're going to ramp up the growth in Lease as a result of the OEM delivery delays.

是的。因此，斯科特，正如你所看到的明年，我想說的是，我們將以強勁的盈利和收入增長結束這一年。顯然，同比下降主要是因為二手車和租金，但業務的合同部分確實有所增長。當我們進入明年時，我預計租賃業務將對明年的收益做出更大的貢獻，因為今年，我們實際上會在年底時加速租賃業務的增長由於 OEM 交貨延遲。

Supply Chain and Dedicated, again, continuing to sell into next year. We expect their earnings to grow along with revenue. As far as used vehicle and rental, it depends on what happens with the cycle, right? So right now, probably our best view is that you're going to see the market probably trough somewhere in the first half of next year and then probably begin to pick up in the second half. So what that means for the full year is still to be determined.

供應鍊和專用再次繼續銷售到明年。我們預計他們的收入將隨著收入的增長而增長。至於二手車和租賃，這取決於自行車的情況，對吧？因此，目前我們最好的觀點可能是，市場可能會在明年上半年觸底，然後可能在下半年開始回升。因此，這對全年意味著什麼仍有待確定。

But I think, hopefully, you see that with this quarter and what we're doing with the full year forecast, I think we're showing that even in a pretty significantly difficult freight environment, we have higher earnings, we have less risk in the business, higher earnings and higher returns profile in the business model. And that's really been a result of all the actions we've taken in the last almost 4 years now that we've been working on this balanced growth strategy.

但我認為，希望您能看到本季度以及我們對全年預測所做的事情，我認為我們表明，即使在相當困難的貨運環境中，我們的收益也更高，我們的風險也更小商業模式中的業務、更高的收益和更高的回報。這確實是我們在過去近 4 年裡採取的所有行動的結果，因為我們一直致力於這一平衡增長戰略。

So we feel really good about that. I think the way to think about the business going forward is we've got to model out that is going to have higher highs and higher lows. We got a higher earnings power for this business. An example of that is if you look at our return on equity, historically, our peak return on equity has been in the mid-teens. Now we're calling for that to be our trough return on equity and our peak return on equity to really be in the low-20s. So it's just a different model now because of the changes that we made, that we outlined those, some of the big ones there on Slide 6 of the presentation.

所以我們對此感覺非常好。我認為思考未來業務的方法是，我們必須模擬出更高的高點和更高的低點。我們的這項業務獲得了更高的盈利能力。一個例子是，如果你看看我們的股本回報率，從歷史上看，我們的股本回報率峰值一直在十幾歲左右。現在我們要求我們的股本回報率低谷和股本回報率峰值真正在 20 左右。因此，由於我們所做的更改，現在它只是一個不同的模型，我們在演示文稿的第 6 張幻燈片上概述了這些更改，其中一些重大更改。

So as you go into next year, you should expect, again, core earnings to continue to grow. You're going to have some movement still in used trucks and rental, depending on what that -- how they do it. But again, our return on equity and our ability to hit strong returns in our businesses, we feel really good about.

因此，當你進入明年時，你應該再次預期核心收益將繼續增長。二手卡車和租賃方面仍將有一些變動，具體取決於他們的做法。但同樣，我們的股本回報率和我們在業務中實現強勁回報的能力，我們感覺非常好。

As far as the valuation and where we're trading, clearly we're currently trading well below our historical multiples, even though we believe that given the changes that we've made, our business has less risk and better returns today than it did in the past. Our year-to-date results and our updated forecast I think is a significant proof point that demonstrates the improved earnings power of the company, even in a slowing freight environment. So I expect that as we continue to perform over the freight cycle, that, that will be reflected in the valuation.

就估值和我們的交易地點而言，顯然我們目前的交易價格遠低於我們的歷史市盈率，儘管我們相信，考慮到我們所做的改變，我們的業務今天的風險比以前更小，回報也更好。在過去。我認為我們今年迄今為止的業績和更新的預測是一個重要的證據，表明即使在貨運放緩的環境下，公司的盈利能力也有所提高。因此，我預計，隨著我們在貨運週期中繼續表現，這將反映在估值中。

Okay. Thank you, guys.

好的。感謝你們。

We'll hear next from Jeff Kauffman from Vertical Research Partners.

接下來我們將聽到來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Kauffman 的發言。

Well, first of all, congratulations. And boy, a lot of moving pieces this quarter. You answered my fleet utilization question, because I thought it's a little closer to the lower end of what you are comfortable with. So you're saying average, kind of mid- to high-70% range for the year. So that would imply it gets better in the second half of the year. Am I understanding that right?

嗯，首先，恭喜你。天哪，本季度有很多令人感動的事情。您回答了我的機隊利用率問題，因為我認為它更接近您感到滿意的下限。所以你說的是今年的平均水平，大約在 70% 的範圍內。這意味著下半年情況會好轉。我這樣理解對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. And then just a quick question on the CapEx. So Delivery was accelerated. As a result, CapEx up about $200 million. A lot of other fleets I talk to say, look, any catch-up that we need to do is being done at the end of 3Q. Where do you stand on getting caught up on CapEx? And is this extra $200 million catching up from last year? Or is this stuff that we're not going to have to spend next year? How should I think about this $200 million change because of faster supplier deliveries?

好的。然後是關於資本支出的一個簡單問題。因此交付速度加快了。因此，資本支出增加了約 2 億美元。我採訪過的許多其他機隊都說，看，我們需要做的任何追趕都在第三季度末完成。對於資本支出問題，您持什麼立場？這額外的 2 億美元是否趕上了去年的水平？或者說這些東西我們明年就不用花了？我應該如何看待由於供應商交付速度加快而帶來的 2 億美元的變化？

Yes. It's really -- remember, we were sold out for most of this year already. So some of this is units that probably would have come in 2024 that are now being delivered in 2023. So we still have a long pipeline of deals that have been signed, that we're still waiting for the vehicles to come in certainly through the balance of this year, and then even some going into next year.

是的。真的——記住，我們今年的大部分時間都已經賣完了。因此，其中一些車輛可能會在 2024 年交付，但現在將在 2023 年交付。因此，我們仍有一長串已簽署的交易，我們仍在等待車輛肯定會通過今年的餘額，甚至還有一些進入明年。

Now we no longer have a 12-month lead time as we did a year ago. So today, we're looking more probably like a 9-month lead time. So that's been some improvement there overall also. But the good news is that we've got pretty good visibility to ongoing business in the lease business that is going to continue to come in over the next year, call it, in the next 12 months at least or 1.5 years. And that will contribute to earnings as we go into 2024.

現在我們不再像一年前那樣有 12 個月的交貨時間。所以今天，我們看起來更可能需要 9 個月的交付時間。所以總體來說也有了一些改進。但好消息是，我們對租賃業務中正在進行的業務有相當好的了解，這些業務將在明年（至少在未來 12 個月或 1.5 年）繼續出現。進入 2024 年，這將有助於盈利。

Okay. And last question. A lot of companies that are looking to try battery electrics or zero-emission vehicles are going to lease them through Ryder, at least initially. What are you seeing on the customer demand side? We're hearing some fleets were gung-ho to get into that and now they're kind of pulling back a little bit on whether it's charging infrastructure, just understanding the vehicles better. But can you talk a little bit about some of the new vehicle technologies and what some of your customers are doing with respect to plowing into that area?

好的。最後一個問題。許多想要嘗試電池電動或零排放汽車的公司將通過萊德租賃它們，至少在初期是這樣。您在客戶需求方面看到了什麼？我們聽說一些車隊熱衷於進入這一領域，但現在他們在充電基礎設施方面有所退縮，只是為了更好地了解車輛。但是您能否談談一些新技術以及您的一些客戶在進軍該領域方面正在做什麼？

I'll let Tom give you a little bit more color. But as a general statement, I'd tell you that we're very involved in this. And I think right now, we're seeing more interest and demand is probably on the light-duty delivery vans, where the charging infrastructure is not as significant an investment as it is on the heavier to medium duty. Cost also is an issue on the -- vehicle cost is an issue on the heavy and medium. So we're focused more right now with our customer, which is where our customers are interested is more on the light-duty delivery vans. Tom, do you want to give a little more color?

我會讓湯姆給你更多的色彩。但作為一般性聲明，我想告訴你，我們非常參與其中。我認為現在，我們看到更多的興趣和需求可能集中在輕型貨車上，其中充電基礎設施的投資並不像重型到中型貨車那麼重要。成本也是一個問題——車輛成本是重型和中型車輛的一個問題。因此，我們現在更關注我們的客戶，我們的客戶更感興趣的是輕型送貨車。湯姆，你想再多一點色彩嗎？

Robert, thank you. Like Robert said, the light-duty, there's more of a clear path to the total cost of ownership and with the infrastructure as well. So I think more of the activity we're seeing now from our customers is on the light duty side. I think there are customers interested in testing and continuing to try out more of the medium-duty and heavier duty equipment. We have relationships, as you know, with most of the OE suppliers that are going to be playing in that game.

羅伯特，謝謝你。正如羅伯特所說，輕型車的總擁有成本和基礎設施成本有更清晰的途徑。因此，我認為我們現在從客戶那裡看到的更多活動是在輕型方面。我認為有些客戶有興趣測試並繼續嘗試更多的中型和重型設備。如您所知，我們與大多數將參與這場遊戲的原始設備供應商都有關係。

But still, the total cost of ownership and the infrastructure challenges along with that are still a pretty big hurdle. We do have vehicles in our fleet to test, which customers are trying, but they still haven't yet kind of crossed the line and stepped in, in a big way. And we'll see over time how that changes and progresses. I think the other area, there's still a little bit of uncertainty in terms of regulations and incentives, particularly in the state of California. And getting clarity on those regs and regulations over the next even 6 months here is going to help the industry make some of those long-term decisions.

但儘管如此，總擁有成本和隨之而來的基礎設施挑戰仍然是一個相當大的障礙。我們的車隊中確實有車輛可供測試，客戶正在嘗試這些車輛，但他們仍然沒有跨界並大規模介入。隨著時間的推移，我們將看到這種情況如何變化和進展。我認為在其他領域，在法規和激勵措施方面仍然存在一些不確定性，特別是在加利福尼亞州。在接下來的 6 個月內弄清楚這些法規和條例將有助於該行業做出一些長期決策。

Okay. That's all I have.

好的。這就是我的全部。

We'll hear next from Brian Ossenbeck from JPMorgan.

接下來我們將聽取摩根大通的布萊恩·奧森貝克 (Brian Ossenbeck) 的發言。

I just wanted to see if you could offer some comments on the pipelines and the conversations around DTS and SCS. And I know you mentioned a little bit of a slowdown. But how has that trended more recently? And are there any verticals or end markets that you're more or less excited about or seeing more demand from?

我只是想看看您是否可以就 DTS 和 SCS 的管道和對話提供一些評論。我知道你提到了一點點放緩。但最近的趨勢如何？是否有任何垂直市場或終端市場讓您或多或少感到興奮或看到更多需求？

Sure. Let me hand it over to Steve to give you some color there.

當然。讓我把它交給史蒂夫來給你一些顏色。

All right. Brian, thank you. Good morning. I'll get on supply chain. I think you look at it quarter-over-quarter, the pipeline remains very healthy, up (technical difficulty) percentages year-over-year. We continue -- as we sign business, we continue to sign new (technical difficulty) of our new sales. So that continues to be a good sign. And then the remaining balance is expanding to new services and capabilities with our existing customers. So on the supply chain side, it remains very strong. We're on track to our target midyear.

好的。布萊恩，謝謝你。早上好。我會進入供應鏈。我認為，從季度環比來看，管道仍然非常健康，（技術難度）百分比同比上升。我們繼續——當我們簽署業務時，我們繼續簽署新銷售的新（技術難度）。所以這仍然是一個好兆頭。然後剩餘的餘額將擴展到我們現有客戶的新服務和功能。所以在供應鏈方面，它仍然非常強大。我們正朝著年中的目標邁進。

On Dedicated, as Robert said earlier, seeing a little softness really due to the freight market. Customers are delaying decisions and really taking advantage of a low spot market rate right now. So they're really trading service for cost. We expect that to bounce back hopefully by the end of the year, but more than likely first part of '24 once the spot market hits the bottom. So -- but the pipeline remains slightly down on Dedicated, but we're still focused on the balance of the year.

正如羅伯特之前所說，在專用航線上，貨運市場確實出現了一些疲軟。客戶正在推遲決策，並真正利用了目前較低的現貨市場價格。所以他們實際上是在用服務換取成本。我們預計到今年年底有望反彈，但一旦現貨市場觸底，很有可能在 24 年上半年反彈。所以 - 但專用的管道仍然略有下降，但我們仍然關註今年的剩餘時間。

And any verticals within, I guess, SCS that are more or less exciting from the pipeline conversations?

我想，SCS 中的任何垂直領域或多或少都從管道對話中令人興奮？

Well, no, they're all up. As I look at each one of the pipelines, e-com remains up year-over-year. Last Mile is up about 15%, CPG is up. So we've got our teams focused on these industry verticals as our teams are structured that way and excited about the pipelines really across the board.

好吧，不，他們都起來了。當我查看每一條管道時，電子商務仍然逐年增長。 Last Mile 上漲了約 15%，CPG 上漲了。因此，我們的團隊專注於這些行業垂直領域，因為我們的團隊就是這樣構建的，並且對全面的管道感到興奮。

Okay. And then just a follow-up for you, Robert, if you can just give some thoughts on the direction and expectations for used vehicle pricing, probably more so focused on tractors. But what you have expected through the rest of the year? Will the OEM increase in deliveries will actually have an impact on used vehicle pricing, one way or the other? And I guess, ultimately, should we still expect some level of gains into 2024, just based on where residuals are and just the normal churn in the lease fleet?

好的。然後，羅伯特，如果您能對二手車定價的方向和期望給出一些想法，可能更關注拖拉機，那麼這只是您的後續行動。但您對今年剩餘時間有何期望？ OEM 交付量的增加實際上會以某種方式對二手車定價產生影響嗎？我想，最終，我們是否應該僅根據剩餘資產以及租賃機隊的正常流失情況，期望到 2024 年會出現一定程度的收益？

So yes, I guess our view for used truck market hasn't changed much since the beginning of the year. We assumed it was going to decline throughout the year. It has declined a little -- at a slower clip, I guess, through the first half of the year than we expected, but we're assuming it to continue to decline for the balance of the year. So yes, normally, if you look at normal historical cycles, that should mean that it's bottoming out sometime in the first quarter of next year. But we'll see. Every cycle is a little bit different.

所以，是的，我想自今年年初以來，我們對二手卡車市場的看法沒有太大變化。我們預計這一數字全年都會下降。它已經下降了一點——我想，今年上半年的下降速度比我們預期的要慢，但我們假設它在今年剩餘時間裡將繼續下降。所以，是的，通常情況下，如果你看看正常的歷史週期，這應該意味著它會在明年第一季度的某個時候觸底。但我們會看到。每個週期都有一點不同。

And your second question on should we expect gains next year, I mean, without knowing exactly what's going to happen, the answer is yes. I would expect gains next year given where our residual values are. You've got trucks and [tractors]. We have that 1 chart that we show in the appendix of the earnings deck where you can see where prices ended in the second quarter and where our residuals are, and there's still significant amount of space between those.

你的第二個問題是我們是否應該期待明年的收益，我的意思是，在不確切知道會發生什麼的情況下，答案是肯定的。考慮到我們的剩餘價值，我預計明年會有所收益。你有卡車和[拖拉機]。我們在收益表的附錄中顯示了第一張圖表，您可以在其中看到第二季度的價格結束位置以及我們的殘差位置，並且這些之間仍然存在很大的空間。

Allison Poliniak from Wells Fargo has your next question.

富國銀行的艾莉森·波利尼亞克（Allison Poliniak）有你的下一個問題。

Just wanted to turn back to SCS. You did talk about the lower volumes impacting margin. Is there any way to help us quantify that to understand sort of what that impact was and how we should think about that? I would say, incremental is more -- obviously, when we're coming on that inflection.

只是想回到SCS。您確實談到了銷量下降對利潤率的影響。有沒有什麼方法可以幫助我們量化這一點，以了解這種影響是什麼以及我們應該如何看待它？我想說，顯然，當我們遇到這種拐點時，增量更重要。

Yes. Look, I would tell you, the lower volumes were really primarily around our omnichannel retail sector. And within that, it was really a -- Ryder Last Mile. So if you look at our big and bulky delivery business, that was down about -- the volumes were down about 20% there. So that impacted the business. Around e-commerce, the volumes through e-commerce business are down some the throughput. Plus we've added some infrastructure. We now want to make sure we fill up that infrastructure.

是的。看，我會告訴你，銷量下降實際上主要集中在我們的全渠道零售部門。其中，這確實是——萊德最後一英里。因此，如果你看看我們龐大而笨重的送貨業務，就會發現，那裡的數量下降了約 20%。所以這影響了生意。在電子商務方面，通過電子商務業務的交易量下降了一些吞吐量。另外，我們還添加了一些基礎設施。我們現在要確保填滿該基礎設施。

So to me, that's a matter of timing. E-commerce deliveries and even the Ryder Last Mile, the Last Mile, big and bulky deliveries had really gone up post-COVID pretty significantly. And we're seeing those things come back down now to levels where you would expect them to be based on the trajectory it was headed pre-COVID. So we think that's a matter of time as we continue to fill up those facilities and we get those volumes back. We feel good about where that is.

所以對我來說，這只是時間問題。電子商務交付量，甚至萊德最後一英里、最後一英里、大件和大件交付量在新冠疫情之後確實大幅增加。我們看到這些事情現在已經回落到你所期望的水平，即基於新冠疫情之前的軌跡。因此，我們認為這只是時間問題，因為我們將繼續填滿這些設施並收回這些數量。我們對那地方感覺很好。

Now on the flip side of that, I would tell you, we still see -- we saw strong volumes in automotive and industrial, CPG. All of those verticals are really seeing good returns, good volumes. And that's really why you see supply chain, even with the headwinds in the omnichannel vertical, we're still getting good returns, and it's because it's offset by the returns in these other businesses.

現在，另一方面，我想告訴你，我們仍然看到——我們看到汽車和工業、CPG 的銷量強勁。所有這些垂直行業都確實獲得了良好的回報和良好的銷量。這就是為什麼你會看到供應鏈，即使在全渠道垂直領域存在逆風，我們仍然獲得了良好的回報，這是因為它被其他業務的回報所抵消。

We'll hear next from Justin Long from Stephens.

接下來我們將聽到來自斯蒂芬斯的賈斯汀·朗的發言。

Sorry if I missed it, but I was wondering if you could share the monthly trends that you saw in the rental business during the quarter. And there's a lot of discussion right now around Yellow. But in the event that Yellow does go bankrupt, any thoughts around the potential impact that could have to the broader rental market and the used equipment market as well?

抱歉，如果我錯過了，但我想知道您是否可以分享您在本季度租賃業務中看到的每月趨勢。現在圍繞黃色有很多討論。但如果 Yellow 確實破產，您對可能對更廣泛的租賃市場和二手設備市場產生的潛在影響有什麼想法嗎？

Yes. I'll let Tom give you the rental month-to-month for the quarter. But I'll tell you that -- the Yellow bankruptcy, if that did happen, certainly would be a -- there'd be a pickup in rental as other companies in that space look for equipment in order to pick up the business that's been let go. So net, that would certainly be a benefit to our rental. And to a certain extent, used trucks as -- if owner-operators jump in and are doing some of that business. But I think you'd see it really on the rental side, which right now, given where we are with utilization and where the market is, we'd have the equipment to be able to meet some of that need. But Tom, do you want to give them the rental utilization through the quarter?

是的。我會讓湯姆向您提供該季度每月的租金。但我要告訴你的是——如果真的發生了 Yellow 破產案，那麼租金肯定會上升，因為該領域的其他公司正在尋找設備，以接替一直以來的業務。鬆手。因此，這肯定會對我們的租金帶來好處。在某種程度上，二手卡車就像——如果業主經營者介入並正在做一些這樣的業務。但我認為你會在租賃方面真正看到這一點，目前，考慮到我們的利用率和市場狀況，我們將擁有能夠滿足部分需求的設備。但是湯姆，您想向他們提供整個季度的租金利用率嗎？

Yes. As we went through the quarter, we saw the fleet decline where we finished the quarter down 5% on fleet sequentially. And as we were bringing down the fleet, we saw the utilization tick up a little bit. So we ended up in June, obviously, at a higher utilization than what we saw in April. And we got to that kind of mid- to upper-70s utilization target here at the end of June. So we feel like we've got the fleet correct, given the current utilization. So kind of rightsizing of that rental fleet here by the -- by the end of the second quarter.

是的。在整個季度中，我們看到機隊數量有所下降，本季度結束時機隊數量環比下降了 5%。當我們減少機隊時，我們看到利用率略有上升。因此，我們在 6 月份的利用率顯然高於 4 月份。我們在 6 月底達到了 70 多歲的利用率目標。因此，考慮到當前的利用率，我們覺得我們的機隊是正確的。到第二季度末，我們將對租賃車隊進行規模調整。

As we look out for the third and the fourth, we are expecting to continue to bring the rental fleet down to kind of match that demand expectation, but not at the levels of nearly 2,000 units that we saw in the second quarter. And then like Robert said, if we do see something with Yellow Fleet -- Yellow Freight, we might see that utilization pop and maybe hold off on a few trucks that we were planning to move out of the fleet. So we'll track that closely as we move through Q3 here and adjust the fleet accordingly.

當我們展望第三和第四個季度時，我們預計將繼續減少租賃機隊數量，以符合需求預期，但不會達到第二季度近 2,000 輛的水平。然後就像羅伯特所說，如果我們確實看到黃色車隊的一些東西——黃色貨運，我們可能會看到利用率的上升，並且可能會推遲我們計劃從車隊中移出的幾輛卡車。因此，當我們進入第三季度時，我們將密切跟踪這一情況，並相應地調整機隊。

At this time, there are no additional questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給羅伯特·桑切斯先生致閉幕詞。

Okay. Well, thanks, everyone. Thanks for getting on the call and your interest in the company. Have a safe day.

好的。嗯，謝謝大家。感謝您撥打電話以及您對公司的興趣。祝你度過安全的一天。

That does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you all for your participation.

今天的電話會議到此結束。我們感謝大家的參與。