萊德系統 (R) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System third quarter 2025 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call will be recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time

早安，歡迎參加 Ryder System 2025 年第三季財報發布電話會議。（操作員指示）今天的通話將被錄音。如有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。

I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.

現在我謹向大家介紹萊德公司投資者關係副總裁卡琳‧坎德拉女士。坎德拉女士，你可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加Ryder公司2025年第三季財報電話會議。我想提醒各位，在本次演講中，你們將會聽到一些符合 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》定義的前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，但會受到不確定性和情況變化的影響。

Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political and regulatory factors. More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.

由於經濟、商業、競爭、市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。有關這些因素的更詳細資訊以及每個非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的調節表，請參閱今天早上發布的收益報告、收益電話會議演示文稿以及 Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，這些文件可在 Ryder 的網站上查閱。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; John Diez, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Cristy Gallo-Aquino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

出席今天電話會議的有：董事長兼執行長羅伯特·桑切斯；總裁兼營運長約翰·迪茲；以及執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯蒂·加洛-阿基諾。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens 和供應鏈解決方案及專用運輸解決方案總裁 Steve Sensing 今天也參加了電話會議，並在演講結束後回答問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

現在，我將把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. The Ryder team delivered our fourth consecutive quarter of earnings per share growth. The third quarter earnings were in line with our expectations, as the operating performance of our resilient contractual businesses and the benefits from our strategic initiatives more than offset headwinds from freight market conditions.

各位早安，感謝各位的收看。Ryder團隊實現了連續第四個季度每股收益成長。第三季收益符合我們的預期，我們穩健的合約業務的營運業績以及策略性舉措帶來的收益足以抵銷貨運市場狀況帶來的不利影響。

The business continues to outperform prior cycles, demonstrating the impact from actions that we've taken under our balanced growth strategy to derisk the business, increase the return profile and accelerate growth in our asset-light supply chain and dedicated businesses. I'll begin today's call by providing you with a strategic update.

該業務持續超越以往週期，證明了我們根據平衡成長策略採取的行動產生了影響，這些行動旨在降低業務風險、提高回報水平並加速輕資產供應鏈和專用業務的成長。今天通話開始，我將向大家報告一下戰略方面的最新進展。

Cristy will then take you through our third quarter results, and John will review capital expenditures and our increasing capital deployment capacity. I'll then review our updated outlook for 2025 and discuss how we expect to leverage the strong foundation provided by our transformed business model.

接下來，Cristy 將帶您了解我們第三季的業績，John 將回顧資本支出和我們不斷提高的資本部署能力。接下來，我將回顧我們更新後的 2025 年展望，並討論我們如何利用轉型後的商業模式所提供的強大基礎。

Let's begin with a strategic update on slide 4. We remain focused on creating compelling value for our customers through operational excellence and investment in customer-centric technology while further improving full cycle returns and unlocking long-term value for our shareholders. We expect earnings growth in 2025, driven by the operating performance of our resilient contractual businesses and the execution on our strategic initiatives.

讓我們先從第 4 頁投影片上的策略更新開始。我們將繼續專注於透過卓越的營運和對以客戶為中心的技術的投資，為客戶創造巨大的價值，同時進一步提高全週期回報，並為股東釋放長期價值。我們預計 2025 年獲利將成長，這主要得益於我們穩健的合約業務的營運業績以及我們策略性舉措的執行。

We are on track to realize the benefits from the strategic initiatives we outlined at the beginning of the year. These benefits are the key drivers of the year-over-year earnings growth expectations. Long-term secular trends that favor transportation and logistics outsourcing remains strong, and we are well positioned to benefit from increased domestic industrial manufacturing as 93% of our revenue is generated in the US.

我們正按計畫推進，可望實現年初制定的策略措施所帶來的效益。這些優勢是推動年度獲利成長預期的關鍵因素。有利於運輸和物流外包的長期發展趨勢依然強勁，而且我們93%的收入都來自美國，因此我們完全有能力從國內工業製造業的成長中受益。

We delivered high teens ROE of 17% for the trailing 12-month period, which is in line with our expectations during a freight cycle downturn. We expect our transformed business model to deliver ROE in the low to mid-20s when market conditions improve for our transactional rental and used vehicle sales businesses, which will enable us to achieve our over-the-cycle ROE target of low 20s.

在過去 12 個月中，我們的淨資產收益率達到了 17%，這符合我們在貨運週期低迷時期的預期。我們預計，隨著交易租賃和二手車銷售業務的市場狀況改善，我們轉型後的商業模式將實現 20% 左右的淨資產收益率，這將使我們能夠實現週期內淨資產收益率 20% 左右的目標。

Earnings growth from our high-performing contractual portfolio reflects our value proposition, as well as our pricing discipline. Over 90% of our operating revenue is generated by multiyear contracts. Our transformed business model has demonstrated its resiliency over this elongated freight cycle downturn, which is going on its fourth year.

我們高績效合約組合的獲利成長反映了我們的價值主張和定價紀律。我們90%以上的營業收入來自多年期合約。我們轉型後的商業模式已經證明了其在持續四年的貨運週期低迷期內的韌性。

We are confident that our cycle-tested business model will continue to outperform prior cycles, while providing us with a solid foundation to meaningfully benefit from the eventual cycle upturn. Consistent execution of our balanced growth strategy is increasing the earnings and return profile of our business while also growing our capital deployment capacity.

我們相信，經過週期檢驗的商業模式將繼續超越過去的週期，同時為我們最終從週期回升中獲益奠定堅實的基礎。我們持續執行均衡成長策略，提高了業務的獲利和回報水平，同時也增強了我們的資本部署能力。

Ample capacity and our strong balance sheet support our capital allocation priorities, focused on profitable growth, strategic investments and returning capital to shareholders. Aligned with these priorities, our Board recently authorized a new discretionary 2 million share repurchase program that replaces a program that was largely completed.

充足的產能和強勁的資產負債表支持我們的資本配置優先事項，即專注於獲利成長、策略性投資和向股東返還資本。為了配合這些優先事項，我們的董事會最近批准了一項新的200萬股自主回購計劃，以取代一項已基本完成的計劃。

So far in 2025, we've returned $457 million to shareholders by repurchasing approximately 2.2 million shares and paying our dividend. Since 2021, we have repurchased approximately 22% of our shares outstanding and increased the quarterly dividend by 57%. Our new share repurchase program and the dividend increase announced earlier this year, demonstrate our commitment to disciplined capital allocation.

截至 2025 年，我們已透過回購約 220 萬股股票和支付股息，向股東返還了 4.57 億美元。自 2021 年以來，我們已回購了約 22% 的流通股，並將季度股息提高了 57%。我們今年稍早宣布的新股票回購計畫和股息成長，反映了我們對嚴格資本配置的承諾。

Our 2025 forecast range for free cash flow is unchanged at $900 million to $1 billion, which reflects lower year-over-year capital spending, and includes an annual cash flow benefit of approximately $200 million from the permanent reinstatement of tax bonus depreciation.

我們對 2025 年自由現金流的預測範圍保持不變，為 9 億美元至 10 億美元，這反映了資本支出逐年減少，並包括因永久恢復稅收優惠折舊而帶來的每年約 2 億美元的現金流收益。

Slide 5 illustrates how key financial and operating metrics have improved since 2018, reflecting the execution of our strategy. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS. Ryder generated comparable earnings per share of $5.95 and ROE of 13%. Operating cash flow was $1.7 billion. This was during peak freight cycle conditions.

投影片 5 展示了自 2018 年以來關鍵財務和營運指標的改善情況，反映了我們策略的執行情況。2018 年，在我們實施均衡成長策略之前，我們 84 億美元的營收大部分來自 FMS。Ryder 的每股收益為 5.95 美元，淨資產收益率為 13%。經營現金流為17億美元。當時正值貨運高峰期。

Now let's look at what we're expecting from Ryder today. In 2025, a year which freight market conditions remain at or near trough levels, our transformed business model is expected to generate meaningfully higher earnings and returns than it did during the 2018 peak.

現在讓我們來看看我們對萊德今天的期望。2025 年，貨運市場狀況仍處於或接近谷底水平，我們轉型後的商業模式預計將比 2018 年的高峰期產生更高的收益和回報。

Through organic growth, strategic acquisitions and innovative technology, we have shifted our revenue mix towards supply chain and dedicated with 60% of 2025 revenue expected to come from these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018.

透過內生成長、策略性收購和創新技術，我們已將收入結構轉向供應鏈和專用業務，預計到 2025 年，這些輕資產業務的收入將佔總收入的 60%，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。

2025 comparable earnings per share is expected to be between $12.85 and $13.05, more than double the 2018 comparable EPS of $5.95. ROE is expected to be approximately 17%, up from the 13% generated during the 2018 cycle peak.

預計2025年可比每股收益將介於12.85美元至13.05美元之間，是2018年可比每股收益5.95美元的兩倍多。預計淨資產收益率約為17%，高於2018年周期高峰時的13%。

As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses, operating cash flow is expected to increase to $2.8 billion, up approximately 65% from 2018. As shown here, in 2025, the business is expected to continue to outperform prior cycles, even when comparing the pre-transformation peak to the current market conditions. We're proud of the strong performance of our transformed business model and believe that executing on our balanced growth strategy will continue to deliver higher highs and higher lows over the cycle.

由於我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務實現了盈利增長，預計經營現金流將增加到 28 億美元，比 2018 年增長約 65%。如圖所示，預計到 2025 年，即使將轉型前的高峰與當前的市場狀況進行比較，該業務仍將繼續超越以往的週期表現。我們為轉型後的商業模式所取得的強勁表現感到自豪，並相信執行均衡成長策略將在本週期內持續帶來更高的高峰和更高的低谷。

I'll now turn the call over to Cristy to review our third quarter performance.

現在我將把電話交給克里斯蒂，讓她回顧我們第三季的業績。

Thanks, Robert. Total company results for the third quarter are on page six. Operating revenue of $2.6 billion in the third quarter, up 1% from prior year, primarily reflects contractual revenue growth in SCS and FMS. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.57 in the third quarter, up 4% from $3.44 in the prior year. The increase primarily reflects higher contractual earnings and the benefit from share repurchases.

謝謝，羅伯特。公司第三季整體業績報告見第六頁。第三季營業收入為 26 億美元，比上年同期成長 1%，主要反映了 SCS 和 FMS 的合約收入成長。第三季持續經營業務的每股盈餘為 3.57 美元，比上年同期的 3.44 美元成長 4%。成長主要反映了更高的合約收益和股票回購帶來的收益。

Return on equity, as Robert previously mentioned, our primary financial metric, was 17%, up from prior year, reflecting higher contractual earnings and share repurchases, partially offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle sales results. Year-to-date free cash flow increased to $496 million from $218 million in the prior year, due to reduced capital expenditures and lower income tax payments.

正如羅伯特之前提到的，我們的首要財務指標——股本回報率為 17%，高於上一年，這反映了合約收益和股票回購的增加，但部分被租賃需求和二手車銷售業績的下降所抵消。由於資本支出減少和所得稅支出降低，今年迄今的自由現金流從去年的 2.18 億美元增加到 4.96 億美元。

Turning to fleet management results on page seven. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue was in line with prior year. Pretax earnings in Fleet Management were $146 million, up year-over-year, reflecting higher ChoiceLease performance driven by pricing and maintenance cost savings initiatives, partially offset by lower used vehicle sales and rental results.

接下來請看第七頁的車隊管理結果。車隊管理解決方案的營業收入與去年持平。車隊管理業務的稅前利潤為 1.46 億美元，同比增長，這反映了 ChoiceLease 業務在定價和維護成本節約措施的推動下業績增長，但部分被二手車銷售和租賃業績的下降所抵消。

We continue to see progress on our pricing and maintenance cost initiatives, and remain on track to achieve the benefits targeted for this year. Rental results for the quarter reflect market conditions that remain weak. Rental demand increased sequentially, but the increase was below historical seasonal demand trends. Rental demand this quarter was also lower than last year. Rental utilization on the power fleet was 70%, down slightly from prior year of 71% on an average active power fleet that was 6% smaller.

我們在定價和維護成本控制方面持續取得進展，並有望實現今年設定的目標收益。本季的租賃業績反映了市場狀況依然疲軟。租賃需求較上季成長，但增幅低於歷史季節性需求趨勢。本季租賃需求也低於去年同期。電力設備的租賃利用率為 70%，略低於去年的 71%，而平均活躍電力設備規模則縮小了 6%。

Lower rental demand was partially offset by higher rental power fleet pricing, which was up 5% year-over-year. Fleet Management EBT, as a percent of operating revenue was 11.4% in the third quarter, below our long-term target of low teens over the cycle.

租賃需求下降被更高的租賃電力車隊價格部分抵消，該價格年增 5%。第三季車隊管理 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 11.4%，低於我們長期目標，即在整個週期中維持在 10% 左右。

Page eight, highlights used vehicle sales results for the quarter. Year-over-year used tractor pricing declined 6% and truck pricing declined 15%. On a sequential basis, pricing for tractors was unchanged and pricing for trucks increased 7%. Sequential pricing benefited from a higher retail mix as we realize better proceeds using the retail sales channel versus the wholesale channel.

第 8 頁重點介紹了本季二手車銷售業績。二手拖拉機價格年減 6%，卡車價格較去年同期下降 15%。從環比來看，拖拉機的價格保持不變，而卡車的價格上漲了 7%。由於零售通路比批發通路能帶來更高的收益，因此順序定價受益於更高的零售組合。

In the third quarter, 54% of our sales volume went through our retail sales channel, up from 50% in the second quarter. As a reminder, in the second quarter, we exited out of some aged inventory and increased our level of wholesaling activity. Our retail mix is still below prior year levels of 68%, reflecting ongoing weakness in market conditions. Pricing in our retail sales channel declined 4% sequentially for tractors and was unchanged for trucks.

第三季度，我們54%的銷售額是透過零售通路實現的，高於第二季度的50%。再次提醒大家，在第二季度，我們清理了一些積壓庫存，並提高了批發業務的水平。我們的零售組合仍低於去年同期的 68%，反映出市場狀況持續疲軟。我們零售通路的拖拉機價格環比下降了 4%，卡車價格保持不變。

During the quarter, we sold 4,900 used vehicles, down sequentially and up versus prior year. The sequential decline was driven by the actions we took in the second quarter to sell aged inventory. Used vehicle inventory of 8,500 vehicles was in our targeted inventory range. Used vehicle pricing remained above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 19 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information.

本季度，我們售出 4,900 輛二手車，季減，但年增。第二季業績環比下滑是由於我們採取了出售滯銷庫存的措施。二手車庫存量為 8500 輛，符合我們的目標庫存範圍。二手車價格持續高於用於折舊目的的殘值估算值。附錄中的第 19 張投影片提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收入和當前殘值估算，供您參考。

Turning to supply chain on page nine. Operating revenue increased 4%, driven by new business in omnichannel retail. Supply chain earnings decreased 8% from prior year as the benefits from operating revenue growth were more than offset by e-commerce network performance and higher medical costs. Supply Chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 8.3% in the quarter at the segment's long-term target of high single digits.

第九頁將討論供應鏈。營業收入成長 4%，主要得益於全通路零售領域的新業務。供應鏈收益較前一年下降 8%，因為營運收入成長帶來的收益被電子商務網路表現不佳和醫療成本上升所抵銷。本季供應鏈 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 8.3%，達到了該部門長期高個位數目標。

Moving to dedicated on page 10. Operating revenue decreased 6% due to lower fleet count, reflecting the prolonged freight downturn. Dedicated EBT was in line with prior year, reflecting acquisition synergies, offset by lower operating revenue.

移至第 10 頁的專屬頁面。由於車隊數量減少，營業收入下降了 6%，反映出貨運量持續低迷。專用 EBT 與上年持平，反映了收購帶來的綜效，但被較低的營業收入所抵銷。

DTS results continued to benefit from strong performance of our legacy dedicated business, reflecting pricing discipline as well as favorable market conditions for recruiting and retaining professional drivers. DTS remains on track to realize the benefits from the Cardinal acquisition synergies. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 7.8% in the quarter, at the segment's long-term high single-digit target.

DTS 的業績繼續受益於我們傳統專線業務的強勁表現，這反映了定價策略的穩健以及有利於招募和留住專業司機的市場環境。DTS 仍有望實現從收購 Cardinal 中獲得的綜效。本季專用 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 7.8%，達到了該業務板塊長期高個位數目標。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review capital spending and capital deployment capacity.

現在我將把電話交給約翰，讓他審查資本支出和資本部署能力。

Thanks, Cristy. Turning to slide 11. Year-to-date, lease capital spending of $1.2 billion was below prior year. Rental capital spending of $271 million was also below prior year levels, reflecting weaker freight market conditions. For full year 2025, lease spending is expected to be $1.8 billion, reflecting lower lease sales activity.

謝謝你，克里斯蒂。翻到第11張幻燈片。今年迄今為止，租賃資本支出為 12 億美元，低於去年同期水準。租賃資本支出為 2.71 億美元，也低於去年水平，反映貨運市場狀況疲軟。預計 2025 年全年租賃支出將達 18 億美元，反映租賃銷售活動減少。

Lease spending is expected to be down approximately $200 million from prior year, reflecting the prior year impact of OEM deliveries from vehicle orders in 2023. We expect the ending lease fleet to remain fairly consistent with current levels by year-end. Forecasted rental capital spending is approximately $300 million, down from prior year.

預計租賃支出將比上年減少約 2 億美元，這反映了去年 OEM 交付 2023 年車輛訂單的影響。我們預計到年底，租賃期滿的船隊規模將與目前水準保持基本一致。預計租賃資本支出約3億美元，低於去年水準。

By the end of this year, our ending rental fleet is expected to be down 12% and our average rental fleet is expected to be down 5%. The rental fleet remains well below peak levels as we manage through an extended market downturn.

預計到今年底，我們的期末租賃車隊規模將下降 12%，平均租賃車隊規模將下降 5%。由於市場長期低迷，租賃車隊規模仍遠低於高峰水準。

In rental, we've continued to shift capital spending to trucks versus tractors. As of the third quarter, trucks represented approximately 60% of our rental fleet. Our full year 2025 gross capital expenditures forecast of approximately $2.3 billion is below prior year. We expect approximately $500 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2025, and full year net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $1.8 billion.

在租賃方面，我們持續將資本支出從拖拉機轉向卡車。截至第三季度，卡車約占我們租賃車隊的 60%。我們預計 2025 年全年總資本支出約 23 億美元，低於前一年。我們預計 2025 年二手車銷售收入約為 5 億美元，全年淨資本支出預計約為 18 億美元。

Turning to page 12. In addition to increasing the earnings and return profile of the business, our transformed contractual portfolio is also generating significant operating cash flow. Improving the overall cash generation profile of the business is one of the essential elements of our balanced growth strategy.

翻到第12頁。除了提高業務的收益和回報水準外，我們改造後的合約組合也產生了可觀的經營現金流。改善企業的整體現金流狀況是我們均衡成長策略的關鍵要素之一。

Better earnings performance is driving higher cash flow generation and, in turn, is delevering our balance sheet at a more rapid pace. This momentum is creating incremental debt capacity given our target leverage range of between 2.5 times and 3 times.

獲利能力的提升帶動了現金流的增加，進而加快了我們資產負債表的去槓桿化。鑑於我們目標槓桿率範圍在 2.5 倍至 3 倍之間，這種勢頭將創造額外的債務融資能力。

As shown on the slide, over a three-year period, we now expect to generate approximately $10.5 billion from operating cash flow and used vehicle sales proceeds. Our operating cash flow will benefit from improving contractual earnings. This creates approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity, resulting in $14 billion available for capital deployment.

如幻燈片所示，我們預計在未來三年內，將透過經營現金流和二手車銷售收入產生約 105 億美元的收入。我們的經營現金流將受益於合約收益的提高。這將新增約 35 億美元的債務融資能力，產生 140 億美元的可用資本部署資金。

Over that same three-year period, we estimate approximately $9 billion will be deployed for the replacement of lease and rental vehicles and for dividends, leaving $5 billion of capital available for flexible deployment to support growth, and return capital to shareholders. We estimate about half of this capacity will be used for growth CapEx and the remaining to be available for discretionary share repurchases and strategic acquisitions and investments.

在同一三年期間，我們預計約有 90 億美元將用於更換租賃車輛和支付股息，剩餘 50 億美元的資金可靈活用於支持成長和向股東返還資本。我們估計其中約一半的產能將用於成長資本支出，其餘部分可用於酌情回購股票、策略性收購和投資。

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders. Our top priority is to invest in organic growth. We've taken a balanced approach to investing and since 2021 have invested approximately $1.1 billion in strategic M&A and have deployed approximately $1.2 billion for discretionary share repurchases, reducing our share count by 22%.

我們的資本配置重點保持不變，仍然專注於支持我們的策略，即推動長期獲利成長並向股東返還資本。我們的首要任務是投資內生成長。我們採取了平衡的投資方式，自 2021 年以來，已在策略併購方面投資約 11 億美元，並已投入約 12 億美元用於自主股票回購，使我們的股票數量減少了 22%。

Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 254% at quarter end, at the lower end of our target range and continues to provide ample capacity to fund our capital allocation priorities.

我們的資產負債表依然穩健，季末槓桿率為 254%，處於目標範圍的下限，並繼續為我們的資本配置優先事項提供充足的資金。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our outlook.

接下來，我將把電話轉回給羅伯特，讓他來討論我們的展望。

Turning to our outlook on page 13. Our full year 2025 comparable EPS forecast is updated to a range of $12.85 to $13.05, above the prior year of $12, as higher contractual earnings benefits from our strategic initiatives and lower share count more than offset the impact from market conditions in rental and used vehicle sales.

接下來請看第 13 頁的展望。我們已將 2025 年全年可比每股收益預測更新為 12.85 美元至 13.05 美元，高於上年的 12 美元，原因是更高的合約收益受益於我們的戰略舉措和更低的流通股數量，足以抵消租賃和二手車銷售市場狀況的影響。

Our updated forecast continues to reflect contractual earnings growth as well as a muted environment for used vehicle sales and rental. Although sales pipelines remain strong, the prolonged freight downturn and economic uncertainty continue to cause some customers and prospects in lease and dedicated to delay decisions. These near-term contractual sales headwinds are consistent with current freight market conditions. We are, however, encouraged by robust sales and pipeline activity in SCS.

我們更新後的預測持續反映出合約收益成長以及二手車銷售和租賃市場環境疲軟。儘管銷售管道依然強勁，但貨運市場的長期低迷和經濟的不確定性繼續導致一些租賃和專用汽車行業的客戶和潛在客戶推遲決策。這些近期合約銷售方面的不利因素與目前的貨運市場狀況相符。不過，SCS 強勁的銷售和業務拓展活動令我們倍感鼓舞。

Our 2025 ROE forecast is unchanged at 17% and is in line with our expectations given current market conditions. As mentioned earlier, our free cash flow forecast of $900 million to $1 billion is unchanged from the prior forecast and reflects lower capital expenditures in 2025, and an estimated annual benefit of $200 million from the permanent reinstatement of tax bonus depreciation. Our fourth quarter comparable EPS forecast range is $3.50 to $3.70 versus a prior year of $3.45.

我們對 2025 年 ROE 的預測保持不變，為 17%，這與當前市場狀況下的預期相符。如前所述，我們對自由現金流的預測為 9 億至 10 億美元，與先前的預測相同，反映了 2025 年較低的資本支出，以及永久恢復稅收獎勵折舊帶來的預計每年 2 億美元的收益。我們對第四季可比每股收益的預測範圍為 3.50 美元至 3.70 美元，而去年同期為 3.45 美元。

Turning to page 14. The key driver of expected earnings growth in 2025 is incremental benefits from multiyear strategic initiatives that are well underway and related to our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses. They represent structural changes we're making in the business and are not dependent on a cycle upturn.

翻到第14頁。2025 年預期收益成長的關鍵驅動因素是多年策略舉措帶來的增量收益，這些舉措正在順利進行，並且與我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務相關。它們代表了我們正在進行的業務結構性變革，並不取決於經濟週期的改善。

Upon completion, we expect these initiatives to generate annual pretax earnings benefits of approximately $150 million, which will be a key component to achieving our long-term ROE target of low 20s over the cycle.

我們預計這些舉措完成後，每年將產生約 1.5 億美元的稅前收益，這將是我們實現週期內長期 ROE 目標（20% 左右）的關鍵組成部分。

In FMS, we expect to realize an incremental annual benefit of approximately $20 million in 2025 from our lease pricing initiative. This results in a total benefit of $125 million relative to our 2018 run rate, reflecting portfolio pricing under the new model. we expect $50 million in benefits over multiple years from our maintenance cost savings initiative announced in mid-2024.

在FMS，我們預計到2025年，我們的租賃定價計畫將帶來每年約2,000萬美元的增量收益。與2018年的營運水準相比，這將帶來1.25億美元的總收益，反映了新模式的投資組合定價。我們預計，在2024年中期宣布的維護成本節約計畫將在未來幾年內帶來5,000萬美元的收益。

In DTS, we expect to realize $40 million to $60 million in annual synergies from the Cardinal acquisition at full implementation. The majority of these synergies are related to maintenance efficiencies and replacing third-party operating leases with the benefits of Ryder ownership and asset management.

在 DTS，我們預計全面實施對 Cardinal 的收購後，每年可實現 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的協同效應。這些協同效應主要與維護效率有關，並且以 Ryder 的所有權和資產管理優勢取代第三方經營租賃。

In SCS, we are focused on optimizing our omnichannel retail warehouse network through continuous improvement efforts, driving operational efficiencies and better aligning our footprint with the demand environment.

在 SCS，我們專注於透過持續改進來優化我們的全通路零售倉儲網絡，提高營運效率，並更好地使我們的業務佈局與需求環境保持一致。

During the third quarter, we incurred some incremental costs related to the optimization of our network, but expect continued progress on this initiative with incremental benefits expected in 2026. By year-end 2025, we expect to realize approximately $100 million from these initiatives benefiting all three business segments. Approximately $70 million of these benefits are incremental to 2024.

第三季度，我們在網路優化方面產生了一些額外成本，但預計這項措施將繼續取得進展，並在 2026 年獲得額外收益。到 2025 年底，我們預計將從這些舉措中獲得約 1 億美元的收益，惠及所有三個業務部門。這些收益中約有 7,000 萬美元是到 2024 年新增的。

In addition to driving our outperformance relative to prior cycles, our transformed business model also provides a solid foundation for the business to meaningfully benefit from the eventual cycle upturn. As such, we expect an annual pretax earnings benefit of at least $200 million by the next cycle peak.

除了推動我們相對於以往週期取得優異業績外，我們轉型後的商業模式也為企業從最終的周期回升中獲益奠定了堅實的基礎。因此，我們預計到下一個週期高峰時，稅前收益每年至少可達 2 億美元。

The majority of the $200 million benefit is expected to come from the cyclical recovery of rental and used vehicle sales in FMS, in dedicated improved driver availability and lower recruiting and turnover costs are benefiting earnings but have been a headwind for new sales and revenue growth.

預計 2 億美元的收益大部分將來自 FMS 租賃和二手車銷售的周期性復甦，而專用司機可用性的提高以及招聘和人員流動成本的降低正在提高收益，但對新銷售和收入增長構成了不利因素。

As freight capacity and driver availability tighten, we expect to see incremental sales opportunities and improved revenue growth in DTS as private fleets seek solutions to address these challenges. In supply chain, muted volumes in our e-commerce network have been a headwind to revenue and earnings. We expect supply chain results to benefit as volumes from these services recover and our optimized warehouse footprint is leveraged.

隨著貨運能力和司機供應緊張，我們預計隨著私人車隊尋求應對這些挑戰的解決方案，DTS 將迎來更多的銷售機會和更高的收入成長。在供應鏈方面，我們電子商務網路的交易量低迷對營收和利潤造成了不利影響。我們預計隨著這些服務的業務量恢復，以及我們優化後的倉庫佈局得到充分利用，供應鏈績效將會受益。

We've been pleased by the business's resilience and performance during the prolonged freight market downturn and are confident each of our business segments is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. Turning to page 15. Our transformed business model continues to deliver value to our customers and our shareholders. We continue to outperform prior cycles, and our results are benefiting from consistent execution and the strength of our contractual portfolio.

我們對公司在長期貨運市場低迷期間展現出的韌性和業績感到滿意，並相信我們每個業務部門都已做好充分準備，能夠從週期性回暖中受益。翻到第15頁。我們轉型後的商業模式將繼續為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。我們持續超越以往週期，我們的表現得益於持續的執行和強大的合約組合。

We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth supported by secular trends, our operational expertise and ongoing momentum from multiyear strategic initiatives. We remain committed to investing in products, capabilities and technologies that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-Q later today.

我們持續看到巨大的獲利成長機會，這得益於長期趨勢、我們的營運專長以及多年策略舉措帶來的持續動能。我們將繼續致力於投資能夠為客戶和股東創造價值的產品、能力和技術。我們的發言稿到此結束。請注意，我們預計將於今天晚些時候提交 10-Q 表格。

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the call for questions.

此時，我將把電話交給接線員，由她來接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

（操作說明）Scott Group，Wolfe Research。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I want to ask how you think these CDL regulations impact the business model, what are the puts and takes? I don't know if you have like a sense on your lease -- on the lease side of the business, like are you more exposed to large fleets, private fleet, small fleets where there may or may not be less exposure? And do you think there is risk that if there's fewer drivers that could pressure used truck pricing, I don't know, just some of the puts and takes?

嘿，謝謝。早安.我想請問您認為這些 CDL 法規對商業模式有何影響？有哪些利弊？我不知道你對租賃業務有什麼了解——例如，你更容易接觸到大型車隊、私人車隊還是小型車隊，哪種情況風險較小？你認為如果司機減少，是否會對二手卡車價格造成壓力？我不知道，只是一些買賣交易而已。

Yeah, Scott, I think that's still developing. But I would say that what it's likely to do is tighten the driver market. The drivers that are impacted just for purposes of our supply chain and dedicated business. We don't have any of those types of drivers in our company.

是的，斯科特，我認為這還在發展中。但我認為，這可能會導致司機市場趨緊。僅就我們的供應鏈和專屬業務而言，受影響的司機。我們公司沒有那種類型的司機。

So tighter driver market typically is good news for our dedicated business, as you're more likely to have companies looking for help on how to bring those drivers in. As far as our customer base on the lease side, let me hand that over to John, so he can give you a little more color on that.

因此，司機市場趨緊通常對我們的專屬業務來說是好消息，因為這樣一來，更有可能有公司尋求協助，了解如何招攬司機。至於我們在租賃方面的客戶群，我把這個問題交給約翰，讓他來詳細介紹一下。

Yes, Scott, the majority of our lease portfolio, if you think about it, there are private fleets that are doing specialized deliveries, whether they're food distributors or even local delivery. Most of what we think is going to get impacted is that over-the-road transport space, which are doing dock-to-dock deliveries that don't require special handling. So I would say the majority of it is not impacted by this.

是的，斯科特，仔細想想，我們租賃組合中的大多數都是私人車隊，它們從事專門的配送服務，無論是食品分銷商還是本地配送。我們認為受影響最大的將是公路運輸空間，也就是那些進行點對點配送且不需要特殊處理的運輸方式。所以我認為，大部分都不會受到影響。

Our estimates based on the number of CDL drivers out there can be as much as 5% impact to the overall capacity. So not expecting a meaningful change there to our customer base but certainly will put pressure on wages over time. And I think that will favor more outsourcing activity for our business, both on the dedicated side as well as individuals looking to cut costs and coming to us for either their fleet maintenance or dedicated solutions.

根據持有 CDL 駕照的駕駛人數，我們的估計可能會對整體運能造成高達 5% 的影響。因此，我們預計不會對我們的客戶群產生實質影響，但隨著時間的推移，這肯定會對薪資水平造成壓力。我認為這將有利於我們業務的更多外包活動，無論是專屬服務方面，還是希望降低成本並尋求我們為其車隊維護或專屬解決方案的個人方面。

Okay. And Robert, I know you, usually on the Q3 call, you gave at least some thoughts perspective on the next year. We've had some multiyear initiatives like some of those like the lease pricing kind of -- I think this is the final year that the fleet is sort of shrinking a little bit as the year plays out. So what are the drivers of earnings growth next year? Are there headwinds to be thinking about?

好的。羅伯特，我知道你通常會在第三季財報電話會議上至少對來年發表一些看法。我們有一些多年期的計劃，例如租賃定價之類的——我認為今年是最後一年了，隨著年底的臨近，車隊規模會略微縮小一些。那麼，明年獲利成長的驅動因素是什麼？有哪些不利因素需要考慮？

Just overall puts and takes as you think about '26's earnings growth potential?

就您目前對2026年獲利成長潛力的看法而言，有哪些整體的賣出和賣出策略？

Yeah, as I was going into this call, I thought there would be a lot more clarity this year than there was last year, given we had an election come up last year. So there's still a lot of uncertainty, but I would tell you, it's a very similar story in that you should expect contractual earnings growth. Really, we have $50 million left in our strategic initiatives of $150 million. So you should expect a good chunk of that, if not all of it, to really come in next year.

是的，在進行這次電話會議之前，我認為今年的情況會比去年更加明朗，因為去年我們經歷了選舉。所以目前仍有很多不確定因素，但我可以告訴你，情況非常相似，你應該期待合約規定的收益成長。實際上，我們1.5億美元的戰略計畫還剩下5,000萬美元。所以，即使不是全部，至少大部分資金也應該會在明年就位。

In addition to that, although we've had some muted sales and lease and dedicated because of the freight market softness and an extended downturn, the really strong part of the story this year is supply chain. We are seeing a very strong sales year in supply chain this year. It's on pace to be one of our best sales years. So those contracts should start coming in as we go into next year, probably second, third quarter, we'll start to see the more of them come in. But I would expect revenue and earnings growth really driven by the supply chain side next year.

除此之外，儘管由於貨運市場疲軟和經濟長期低迷，我們的銷售、租賃和專用業務有所放緩，但今年真正強勁的部分是供應鏈。今年供應鏈領域的銷售業績非常強勁。按照目前的趨勢，今年可望成為我們銷售業績最好的一年。所以這些合約應該會在明年開始陸續到來，可能在第二季或第三季度，我們會看到越來越多的合約簽訂。但我預計明年營收和利潤成長將主要由供應鏈方面推動。

And then on the transactional side, it's really when do we think the freight cycle is going to turn. And we're now in -- we're going to be on our fourth year of a downturn. So at some point, it will -- if it happens earlier in the year, we'll get some boost from our rental and used vehicle. If it happens later in the year, we'll get less of that, but it's really that $200 million of incremental earnings that we're expecting by the time we are next peak. When that turn happens, you'll start seeing some of that.

然後，從交易方面來看，真正的問題是我們認為貨運週期何時會轉變。現在，我們將進入經濟衰退的第四年。所以，如果今年早些時候發生這種情況，我們就能從租賃和二手車中獲得一些幫助。如果這種情況發生在今年晚些時候，我們得到的收益就會減少，但我們真正期待的是，到下一個高峰期時，能夠獲得 2 億美元的額外收益。當這種情況發生時，你會開始看到一些這樣的現象。

It does it all come in the first year, but you'll start seeing some of that. And there's still not a lot of certainty of when we're going to see that. But one of the things you mentioned around tighter market could be more capacity coming out of the spot market, which is probably a good thing for the overall freight market.

所有這些都會在第一年顯現出來，但你會開始看到其中的一些。目前還無法確定我們何時才能看到這種情況。但你提到的市場趨緊的一個方面可能是現貨市場釋放出更多運力，這對整個貨運市場來說可能是一件好事。

As you know, we have zero-based budgeting here. So we expect us to continue to manage our overheads and look for cost takeouts there. If it is a slow market from a freight market standpoint, so we don't see an up-turn. Then you should expect another strong free cash flow year. Unless we see a big freight rebound, I think that's probably in the cards for us next year, another strong free cash flow year.

如您所知，我們這裡實行的是零基預算。因此，我們預計將繼續控制營運成本，並尋找降低成本的機會。如果從貨運市場的角度來看，市場低迷，那麼我們就看不到回升的跡象。那麼你應該會預期今年的自由現金流又會強勁成長。除非我們看到貨運量大幅反彈，否則我認為明年我們很可能又將迎來一個自由現金流強勁的年份。

And then also continued share repurchase. So really continued execution on our balanced growth strategy, which I think has given us really good results so far, and we'll continue to do so.

然後還繼續回購股票。因此，我們將繼續執行均衡成長策略，我認為到目前為止，該策略已經取得了非常好的成果，我們將繼續這樣做。

(Operator Instructions) Ben Moore, Citi.

（操作說明）本摩爾，花旗銀行。

Hi, good morning, thanks for taking our question. Wanted to touch on more about your used gain being challenged in the quarter. In thinking about 4Q and 2026, can you share how you frame thinking about the truck tariffs? Presumably, you could allocate purchases towards US made trucks, USMCA compliance can alleviate tariffs on -- trucks. You've got higher new truck pricing that should lift your used truck prices and you can possibly pass through to customers higher new truck pricing given the strong truck leasing industry pricing discipline.

您好，早安，感謝您回答我們的問題。我想再詳細談談本季您已使用的收益所受到的挑戰。在考慮第四季度和 2026 年時，您能否分享一下您是如何看待卡車關稅問題的？想必您可以將採購重點放在美國製造的卡車上，遵守美墨加協定可以減輕卡車的關稅。新卡車價格上漲應該會提振二手卡車價格，考慮到卡車租賃業嚴格的定價機制，或許可以將更高的新卡車價格轉嫁給客戶。

And also private fleets would probably want to outsource more to you. It's more economical to lease and buy. Can you walk us through kind of maybe some of these points and what you're thinking the puts and takes, whether that could be an overall benefit?

而且，私人車隊可能也希望將更多業務外包給你。租賃和購買都更經濟。您能否為我們詳細解釋一下這些要點，以及您認為其中的利弊，這是否會帶來整體上的好處？

Yeah, Ben, first, I'll say that we still don't have clarity of what the impact on the pricing is going to be and how much of any of it will be passed through. But I think you hit on some of the key points that, number one, if there is a price increase -- and I think there's market dynamics here.

是的，本，首先我要說的是，我們仍然不清楚這對價格會有什麼影響，以及其中有多少影響會轉嫁到消費者身上。但我認為你提到了一些關鍵點，首先，如果價格上漲——我認為這裡存在市場動態。

So all the OEs regardless of where they're doing their final manufacturing will have to compete in the marketplace with those that may be doing more domestic versus across the border. But any increase that we see, obviously, we passed through in our lease rate with our customers.

因此，所有原始設備製造商，無論其最終生產地在哪裡，都必須與那些可能更多地在國內生產而不是在國外生產的製造商在市場上競爭。但我們看到的任何成長，顯然都已轉嫁到客戶的租賃費率中。

We're not buying trucks until we have signed leases. Those increases will likely -- if they do happen, we'll slow down the purchase of new trucks, I would expect, which should give -- which should accelerate getting the supply of trucks in the market down to where they need to be. So that could be -- help accelerate the balance of the freight market.

在簽訂租賃合約之前，我們不會購買卡車。如果這些增長真的發生，我預計我們會放慢購買新卡車的速度，這應該會加快市場上卡車供應量下降到所需水平的速度。所以這可能有助於加快貨運市場的平衡。

But for Ryder just as importantly, the cost of used equipment and used equipment that, that was purchased prior to the tariffs should be more valuable. And we should see some help on the used truck side over time as the higher pricing of new trucks comes in.

但對萊德來說，同樣重要的是，二手設備以及在關稅實施前購買的二手設備的成本應該更有價值。隨著新卡車價格上漲，二手卡車市場應該會逐漸改善。

So those are the big ones. I think at the end, complexity at Ryder is our friend. And I think the uncertainty has not been our friend just like uncertainty is not a friend of any business. But more complexity is good for us. And certainly, we're seeing plenty of it coming down the pipe with some of this tariff talk also some of the changes in driver regulations and qualifications and who could be a driver.

以上就是主要的幾個問題。我認為最終，Ryder 的複雜性對我們是有益的。我認為，不確定性對我們不利，就像不確定性對任何企業都不利一樣。但更複雜的情況對我們有利。當然，我們看到許多相關內容正在醞釀中，包括一些關稅方面的討論，以及駕駛員法規和資格方面的一些變化，以及誰可以成為駕駛員。

So those things over time really, I think, make the work that we do more complex, which should bode well for outsourcing and should bode well for companies like ours.

所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，這些因素確實會使我們的工作變得更加複雜，這對外包來說應該是一個好兆頭，對像我們這樣的公司來說也應該是一個好兆頭。

Great. Really appreciate that. Maybe as a follow-up just thinking longer term capital structure-wise, as you shift your mix to more supply chain and dedicated, how might you think about maybe kind of trending down your leverage target to be more in line with your supply chain and dedicated peers. It looks like most of them have leverage around 0 to 1 to 2 times.

偉大的。真的很感激。或許可以進一步考慮，從更長遠的資本結構角度來看，隨著您將投資組合轉向更多供應鏈和專用業務，您可以考慮逐步降低槓桿目標，使其更符合供應鏈和專用業務同行的水平。看起來他們大多數人的槓桿倍數在 0 到 1 到 2 倍左右。

Yeah, that's a good question. But I think if you look at our balance sheet, you can see that the majority of the capital that we're spending is still heavily weighted towards our FMS business. The good news is the profitability of that business has significantly improved. So the contracts that we've signed over the last now five, six years are certainly more profitable than what we had historically.

是的，這是個好問題。但我認為，如果你看一下我們的資產負債表，你會發現我們支出的大部分資本仍然嚴重偏向我們的FMS業務。好消息是，該企業的獲利能力已顯著提高。因此，我們在過去五、六年簽署的合約肯定比我們以往的合約更有利可圖。

So that allows us to continue to hold our leverage and keep our leverage where it is even as there's been a shift in certainly the revenue and earnings for the company. So John, do you want to add something to that?

因此，即使公司的收入和利潤發生了變化，我們仍然可以繼續保持我們的槓桿率，並將我們的槓桿率維持在目前的水平。約翰，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah, Ben, I think right now, we're at the lower end of our target range. You should expect once the freight market recovers, we are going to be spending more capital to not only replenish the fleet but grow the fleet, both for lease and rental. So you will see our leverage move up within the range as we kind of up-cycle business. So that's kind of -- one of the dynamics here is we're on the trough end of the cycle, which you're seeing us operate towards the latter end.

是的，本，我認為目前我們處於目標範圍的下限。預計一旦貨運市場復甦，我們將投入更多資金，不僅用於補充車隊，還用於擴大車隊規模，包括租賃和出租。因此，隨著我們業務的向上循環，你會看到我們的槓桿率在範圍內上升。所以，這有點像是——這裡的一個動態是，我們正處於週期的低谷期，而你看到的是我們正在向週期的後期運作。

It will take multiple years, I would say, before we start seeing a meaningful impact to our capital structure from the growth that we're seeing in supply chain and dedicated.

我認為，供應鏈和專用領域的成長要對我們的資本結構產生實質影響，還需要數年時間。

David Zazula, Barclays.

David Zazula，巴克萊銀行。

Hey, thanks for taking my question. So, Steve and Cristy, Robert's comments suggested a pretty positive outlook for Supply Chain Solutions kind of into the quarter and next year. Can you start with some of the headwinds you saw this quarter? Were they temporary? Is some of the revenue you'd be able to offset the poor network performance in e-commerce? Just any color you can provide there. Thank you.

嘿，謝謝你回答我的問題。所以，史蒂夫和克里斯蒂，羅伯特的評論表明，供應鏈解決方案在本季和明年的前景相當樂觀。能先說說本季遇到的不利因素嗎？它們是暫時的嗎？能否利用部分收入來彌補電子商務中糟糕的網路效能？任何你能提供的顏色都可以。謝謝。

Yeah, David, as you look at it, we had our ninth consecutive quarter of EBT earnings last quarter. We remain in high single digit; I would really put it in three buckets. We had higher medical costs in the quarter. In e-com, there was a productivity miss really associated with a couple of accounts where volumes were lower than what was forecasted. And then as Robert said, in our strategic initiatives, the continued optimization of our multi-client, e-com and Ryder last mile footprint.

是的，大衛，你看，上個季度我們連續第九個季度實現了 EBT 盈利。我們仍然保持在個位數高位；我真的會把它分成三類。本季醫療費用較高。在電子商務方面，生產力下降主要與幾個帳戶有關，這些帳戶的銷售量低於預期。正如羅伯特所說，在我們的策略性舉措中，我們將繼續優化我們的多客戶、電子商務和 Ryder 最後一公里配送業務。

We did have some customers that requested to move earlier in the year. So we've got some moves going on here in the second half where we had planned those to happen in Q1, but we didn't want to accommodate them. So a little bit of higher move and shutdown costs as well.

今年早些時候，我們確實有一些客戶要求搬家。所以，我們在下半年進行了一些調整，這些調整原本計劃在第一季進行，但我們不想安排這些調整。因此，搬遷和停工成本也會略高一些。

David, I was just going to add to that, that in the forecast that we've provided for the fourth quarter, what we're expecting there on the high end of the range is that rental will continue kind of at this flat sequential demand environment. And on the UVS side, on the high end, there would be some market improvement and also some benefit from us shifting to more retail mix on the used vehicle side.

大衛，我正要補充一點，在我們對第四季的預測中，我們預計租賃市場在預測範圍的高端將繼續保持這種平穩的需求環境。而在UVS方面，高端市場將會有所改善，而且隨著我們在二手車領域轉向更多零售組合，我們也會從中受益。

And then on the low end, it would just be that demand drops below Q3 levels, so a declining environment, and that used vehicle also has a modest decline.

而在低階市場，需求可能會低於第三季的水平，因此市場環境會下滑，二手車市場也會略有下降。

Very helpful. And then just if I could squeeze one in on select care. It seems like there's some headwinds in select here there? I guess, one, maybe discuss whether we should think of those as temporary? Or is there something going on there?

非常有幫助。如果我能擠出時間參加一次精選護理就好了。看來這邊某些方面遇到了一些阻力？我想，或許可以先討論一下我們是否應該把這些視為暫時的措施？或是那裡發生了什麼事？

And then should we think of SelectCare as being more volatile than historically outstand it's been a pretty consistent grower over time. So anything you can provide there on --

那麼，我們是否應該認為 SelectCare 的波動性大於其歷史上的卓越表現呢？從長遠來看，它一直保持著相當穩定的成長。所以，您在那裡能提供的任何東西--

Yeah. I'll let Tom give you color. Remember, SelectCare has a component that's contractual. And then another component is more the rebillables or the more transactional part is we've got customers that need body work and other types of work to do, but go ahead.

是的。我請湯姆來幫你描述一下。請記住，SelectCare 包含合約條款。另一個組成部分是可重新計費部分，或者說是交易部分，我們有客戶需要車身維修和其他類型的維修工作，但請繼續。

Yeah, so I would view it as temporary. As we looked at the quarter, it was just lower activity, and as Robert mentioned, that lower activity in the transactional forms of SelectCare. And we certainly expect that to return to more normal levels in the fourth quarter.

是的，所以我認為這只是暫時的。從本季的情況來看，活動量有所下降，正如羅伯特所提到的，SelectCare 的交易形式也出現了活動量下降的情況。我們預計第四季度這一數字將恢復到更正常的水平。

Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley.

拉維‧香克爾，摩根士丹利。

Hey, thanks guys. Just a follow-up on the CDL role. I understand that you said it's a very direct impact for you guys. But how do you think about the timing and maybe the indirect impact. If you can kind of rewind a little bit to in 2018 with the ELD mandate and the 2020 drug and a clearinghouse kind of when there were regulatory changes in the industry that impacted small truckers, how quickly did that kind of the second derivative flow up to you guys?

嘿，謝謝大家。關於CDL職位的後續問題。我明白你說過這對你們來說影響非常直接。但您如何看待時機以及可能產生的間接影響？如果把時間稍微倒回到 2018 年，當時 ELD 強制令、2020 年的藥品和資訊交換中心等行業監管變化影響了小型卡車司機，那麼這些二階導數效應多久會波及到你們呢？

And also, what's the timing that you think this impact will take place? Is this something that happened right away? Is this '26? Is it going to take several years? And what are you guys seeing right now?

另外，您認為這種影響會在什麼時候發生？這是立刻發生的事嗎？這是 26 年的嗎？需要好幾年嗎？你們現在看到的是什麼？

Yeah, those are good questions, but it's hard to tell at this point, though, right? We don't know what the timing of this is, but the estimates are that it's 5% of the driver market that could come out over the next couple of years. So it's probably not something that happens overnight. It happens over a period of time.

是的，這些都是很好的問題，但目前還很難說，對吧？我們不知道具體時間，但據估計，未來幾年內可能會有 5% 的駕駛市場退出市場。所以這可能不會在一夜之間發生。這是一個逐漸發生的過程。

And whenever there's been a tightening of the driver market, it's typically good news for outsourcing. So again, we would expect to see some improvement, which -- much needed improvement, I would tell you on demand for dedicated services. And that's an area that as the market times up, you should see that.

每當駕駛市場趨緊時，通常對外包來說都是好消息。所以，我們再次期待看到一些改進，而且——對於專用服務而言，這是非常需要的改進。隨著市場逐漸成熟，你應該會看到這一點。

You should also see an increase in the transactional parts of our leasing business, rental and used vehicle sales because as some of those drivers that are maybe one way and our typical truckload type fleets go down. Some of the private fleets are going to have to pick up the slack.

你還應該看到我們租賃業務、租賃和二手車銷售的交易部分有所增加，因為一些單程司機和我們典型的整車運輸車隊數量有所下降。一些私人車隊將不得不填補這一空缺。

And we've seen that tilt over the last couple of years more towards the for higher driver. You may see that come back towards the private fleet, which will benefit our leasing customers and our dedicated business.

過去幾年，我們看到這種趨勢更傾向於高駕駛水平的駕駛員。您可能會看到這種情況回歸到私人車隊，這將使我們的租賃客戶和我們的專屬業務受益。

Understood. And as a follow-up to that, just on that point of private fleets, I think there's been some speculation about private fleet growth over the years. And yesterday, we may have heard that, there are some signs that maybe private fleets may be kind of giving back just given cost inflation and other issues. What do you think are some of the structural trends in private fleet growth right now? And kind of how do you think that lasts through the up cycle?

明白了。作為對私人船隊的補充，就私人船隊這一點而言，我認為這些年來一直有一些關於私人船隊增長的猜測。昨天我們可能聽到了一些消息，有跡象表明，鑑於成本上漲和其他問題，私人車隊可能會做出一些讓步。您認為目前私人車隊成長有哪些結構性趨勢？那麼，你認為這種狀態是如何在上升週期中持續下去的呢？

Yeah. I think we've seen that in our lease fleet and our dedicated fleet over the last several years as coming out of COVID, there were a lot of trucks that were ordered that came in that probably our customers didn't need them all at that point once the COVID high came down. So you've seen those fleets teeth leading over the last two to three years. And we believe that's probably getting closer to the tail end of it now. But yeah, there's no doubt that private fleets have been [defleeting] over the last two to three years.

是的。我認為，在過去幾年裡，隨著新冠疫情的結束，我們的租賃車隊和專用車隊都出現了這種情況：訂購了許多卡車，但隨著新冠疫情高峰期的過去，我們的客戶可能不再需要所有這些卡車了。所以，在過去的兩三年裡，你已經看到了這些艦隊的鋒芒。我們認為，這件事現在可能已經接近尾聲了。但毫無疑問，在過去兩三年裡，私人船隊一直在[裁員]。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

Jeff Kauffman，Vertical Research Partners。

Thank you very much, congratulations, everybody. I just wanted to focus a little bit on the bonus depreciation. How is that going to funnel into the financial statements? Is it just going to be a cash flow benefit? Is it going to help the operating margins?

非常感謝，恭喜大家。我只想重點談談額外折舊。這些最終將如何體現在財務報表中？只是現金流方面的好處嗎？這能提高營業利益率嗎？

And how is that going to accelerate? I think you mentioned a $200 million benefit, maybe I'm wrong, but I just kind of want to get a better idea how that's going to flow through the financials?

那又將如何加速這一進程呢？我想你提到過2億美元的收益，也許我記錯了，但我只是想更了解這筆錢將如何體現在財務方面？

Yeah, hi, Jeff, so -- yeah, the bonus depreciation right now for us is going to be a cash tax benefit, and we are estimating that to be about $200 million. We would expect that at the same level of capital spending in future years, it would continue to be about $200 million in the next several years. So that's the way it's going to flow through our financial statements. There is no tax rate effect of this. And from our operating margins, I mean, we continue to price our leases at market rates.

是的，嗨，傑夫，所以——是的，目前對我們來說，額外的折舊將帶來現金稅收優惠，我們估計約為 2 億美元。我們預計，在未來幾年維持同樣的資本支出水準下，未來幾年資本支出將維持在 2 億美元左右。所以，這就是它將在我們的財務報表中體現的方式。這不會對稅率產生影響。從我們的營業利潤率來看，我的意思是，我們繼續以市場價格定價來租賃業務。

So there really isn't a meaningful impact. It's just a cash timing benefit that we're going to be getting.

所以實際上並沒有產生實質的影響。這只是我們將要獲得的現金流方面的優勢。

All right. And the $200 million number in the annual number, correct?

好的。年度數字是2億美元，對嗎？

That is correct, yeah.

沒錯，是的。

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah, hi, morning, just wanted to come back to supply chain for a second. You mentioned -- the margins were in the high single-digit target for the third quarter. You mentioned the e-commerce network productivity or performance. Is that something that just is isolated into the third quarter and it drops off, and we could get back to some sort of a sequential improvement from here? Or is that sort of linger on?

是的，早安，我只是想再簡單談談供應鏈。您提到過－第三季的利潤率達到了接近兩位數的目標。您提到了電子商務網路的生產力或效能。這種情況是否僅限於第三季度，之後就會好轉，我們能否從現在開始看到某種程度的持續改善？或者說，那是一種揮之不去的念頭？

And then secondly, you commented that supply chain sales pipeline has been really strong and could start impacting in the 2Q, 3Q next year. Can you talk a little bit about the trade-off, if you start getting back to the revenue growth targets that you like to see longer term. Is there a trade-off with margin on startup? Or can we hold the high single digits as that starts to flow in? Thanks.

其次，您提到供應鏈銷售管道非常強勁，可能會在明年第二季、第三季開始產生影響。如果您開始重新追求您希望看到的長期營收成長目標，您能否談談其中的權衡取捨？新創企業的利潤率是否有權衡取捨？還是我們能否守住目前的高個位數漲幅，讓資金開始流入市場？謝謝。

Yeah, I'll let Steve answer that. I'll tell you the last part of that. I do think we're certainly excited about the growth. We are not changing our earnings leverage targets, though, for supply chain. So no would expect same earnings leverage targets, just to be -- it's going to be nice to get back closer to our target growth rates.

好的，這個問題還是讓史蒂夫來回答。我來告訴你最後一部分。我確實認為我們對這一增長感到非常興奮。不過，我們不會改變供應鏈的獲利槓桿目標。所以，沒有人會期望達到同樣的獲利槓桿目標，只是──能夠重新接近我們的目標成長率將會是件好事。

But go ahead, Steve.

史蒂夫，你繼續吧。

Yeah, I think in the quarter, as you think about Q4, there's going to be some continued optimization of the footprint, specifically in e-commerce and last mile. So I think that would continue, but it would set us up for a rebound in 2026. We also are seeing in the second half a few more plant shutdowns in automotive, as they retool and move models around to different plants. So that's another one.

是的，我認為在第四季度，也就是你展望第四季度的時候，我們會繼續優化業務佈局，尤其是在電子商務和最後一公里配送方面。所以我認為這種情況會持續下去，但這將為我們在 2026 年實現反彈奠定基礎。我們也看到，下半年汽車產業的工廠停產的情況有所增加，因為他們需要進行設備改造，並將車型轉移到不同的工廠生產。又一個。

I didn't really stand out in the quarter, but that's some items that we're seeing here in the back half.

我這季度表現並不突出，但這是我們在下半年看到的一些情況。

Harrison Bauer, Susquehanna.

哈里森鮑爾，薩斯奎哈納。

Great, thank you for taking my question. You've laid out your peak to trough market improvement opportunity of around $200 million. And that was off a 2024 base with used vehicle sales down on the games part or maybe $50 million this year in rental earnings contributions also down notably. Do you think that peak to trough opportunity might be close to $300 million, if we rebase the transactional earnings contribution to 2025?

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題。你已經規劃出了從市場高峰到谷底約 2 億美元的市場改善機會。而且這是以 2024 年為基準的預測，二手車銷量在遊戲方面有所下降，今年的租賃收入貢獻可能達到 5000 萬美元，而且也明顯下降。如果我們將交易收益貢獻重新計算至 2025 年，您認為從高峰到谷底的機會可能接近 3 億美元嗎？

Yeah, Harrison, this is John. I think your observations are directionally accurate in that if you think about where we were in '24 from a gains perspective and where we're sitting today. Obviously, we've had a pullback in our UBS gains. As a reminder, our expect the normalized gains to annually are in that range of $75 million.

是的，哈里森，這是約翰。我認為你的觀察方向是正確的，如果你想想我們在 2024 年從收益的角度來看所處的位置，以及我們今天所處的位置。顯然，我們在瑞銀投資方面已經出現了回檔。再次提醒，我們預計每年的正常化收益將在 7,500 萬美元左右。

So clearly, more opportunity on the UBS side relative to where we were back in 2024. Rental has also taken a step back since then, which would suggest that it's a little bit more than the $200 million, that we originally had calibrated. So we are going to need to make investments to grow the rental fleet and continue to invest in that fleet over time, which factors into that $200 million. But you're absolutely right. The $200 million, it's maybe not reflective of where we sit today, which is more depressed than where we were a year ago.

所以很明顯，與 2024 年的情況相比，瑞銀方面有更多機會。此後，租賃市場也出現了下滑，這表明租賃市場的實際規模可能略高於我們最初預估的 2 億美元。因此，我們需要進行投資來擴大租賃車隊，並隨著時間的推移繼續投資該車隊，這其中包含了 2 億美元。但你說得完全正確。2億美元或許無法反映我們目前的處境，我們現在的處境比一年前更低迷。

Thank you and as a follow-up to the nondomicile CDL conversation, I appreciate how you mentioned how the removal of drivers would impact different parts of your business. But what do you think the sort of other side of that where there might be additional trucks to the market and how that might affect used vehicle prices? Thank you.

謝謝。關於非居民 CDL 的討論，我很欣賞您提到減少司機數量會對您業務的不同方面產生的影響。但您認為如果市面上出現更多卡車，會對二手車價格產生什麼樣的影響呢？謝謝。

The question is additional trucks as a result of having fewer drivers?

問題是，由於司機減少，是否需要增加卡車數量？

Correct. Yeah, like the displacement of drivers and what might happen with those trucks and any pressure to used vehicle prices or residual values?

正確的。是的，例如司機流失、這些卡車可能面臨的問題，以及對二手車價格或殘值可能造成的壓力？

Oh, I see, so you're saying that, yes, there will be more used trucks in the mark. Yes, I think that would be I mean, see, time will tell, but I think that would be more than offset by just the benefit of more trucks need to be there to replace them, right? You're going to have to -- you're going to need more newer trucks or less or newer model year trucks to replace them. So yeah. It's hard to tell exactly how it all falls out.

哦，我明白了，所以你的意思是，是的，市場上會有更多二手卡車。是的，我想應該是這樣，你看，時間會證明一切，但我認為，僅僅因為需要更多卡車來替換它們，就能帶來的好處遠遠抵消損失，對吧？你必須——你需要更多的新卡車，或更​​少的舊卡車，或更​​新款的卡車來替換它們。是的。很難說事情最終會如何發展。

But generally, I would tell you that as the market tightens for drivers, that is a good thing for used trucks, and that's a good thing for our rental business.

但總的來說，我會告訴你，隨著司機市場趨緊，這對二手卡車來說是件好事，對我們的租賃業務來說也是件好事。

Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

Brian Ossenbeck，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning, just wanted to ask for a little bit more specifics on the rental demand. I think you said it was a little bit weaker than seasonal. I don't know if you can call it anything in particular there? And similarly for the e-com, it sounded like there was a productivity miss on -- maybe volume. So is there anything within that vertical that you can read into? Or is this more of a one-off from a specific customer and whatever they're forecast was and whatever that warehouse was supposed to look like, but if they didn't deliver?

嗨，早上好，我想了解租賃需求的具體情況。我想你說過它比季節性產品略遜一籌。我不知道在那裡能不能給它一個特別的名字？同樣，對於電子商務來說，似乎在生產力方面——或許是銷售方面——出現了問題。那麼，在這個領域裡，有什麼值得我們深入探討的內容嗎？或者這只是某個特定客戶的一次性事件，無論他們的預測如何，無論倉庫應該是什麼樣子，如果他們沒有按時交付呢？

So I'll let Tom address the rental what we saw in the quarter versus what we expected.

那麼，就讓湯姆來談談本季租賃市場的情況，看看我們實際看到的租賃情況與預期有何不同。

Yeah, Cristy mentioned it a little bit in her opening comments, but the third quarter was slightly down from our expectations and slightly worse than what we would typically see from a seasonal demand trend -- by about 1%, if you look at the trend year-over-year. You can see that. So as you step off into the fourth quarter here on that slightly lower demand, that's reflected into the fourth quarter forecast as well. So it's a little bit worse than what we had expected.

是的，克里斯蒂在開場白中稍微提到了這一點，但第三季度略低於我們的預期，也略低於我們通常從季節性需求趨勢中看到的水平——如果按同比來看，大約低了 1%。你看得出來。因此，隨著第四季度需求略有下降，這也反映在了第四季度的預測中。情況比我們預想的還要糟糕。

And certainly, we're well off of our target of where we want to be from a utilization standpoint.

當然，從利用率的角度來看，我們離目標還差得很遠。

Steve, do you want to address the e-com?

史蒂夫，你想談談電子商務嗎？

Yeah. Brian, I'd say that productivity miss to forecast was really a one-off situation in the quarter.

是的。布萊恩，我認為本季生產力未達預期確實是個別情況。

And I guess just on the rental demand, if it was worse, and I appreciate you updating the guidance for the run rate, but what -- is there anything in particular that surprised you to the downside? Was it a combination of things, anything you can really point to?

我想，就租賃需求而言，如果情況更糟的話，我很感謝您更新了運行率的指導，但是——有什麼特別的下行因素讓您感到意外嗎？是多種因素共同作用的結果嗎？有沒有什麼具體的原因可以指出？

Yeah, I guess there's a good and bad in the detail of the data. The good point is our pure rental business year-over-year, the demand for our non-lease customers running trucks was flat year-over-year. So what we're seeing is our lease customers haven't picked up their demand. And we certainly haven't signed lease sales have been a little bit muted, and we would typically have a wait new leases as we sign new business.

是的，我想數據的細節有好的一面，也有壞的一面。好消息是，我們純租賃業務較去年同期有所成長，而我們非租賃客戶營運卡車的需求則較去年同期持平。所以我們看到的情況是，我們的租賃客戶並沒有恢復他們的需求。我們當然還沒有簽署租賃協議，銷售情況也比較低迷，通常情況下，我們會等到簽署新合約後再簽訂新的租賃協議。

So those are the two areas that were down in demand. The other good point here, and you saw it in the numbers, the RPD was up about 5%. So we are seeing good rate discipline in rental. So I think when we see our lease customers start to rent again, that will be a really good sign for us.

所以，這兩個領域的需求量都下降了。另一個值得一提的是，正如你在數據中看到的，RPD 增長了約 5%。因此，我們看到租賃市場的價格紀律良好。所以我認為，當我們看到租賃客戶開始重新租房時，這對我們來說將是一個非常好的跡象。

Ben, Citi.

本，花旗銀行。

Great, thanks for bringing me back in, just looking at the bright side, your strong sales performance in SCS and you seem very excited about SCS leading growth in 2026. Can you talk more about your recent developments in your incubator for tech that had developed your RyderGyde, RyderShare, RyderShip and tech-driven sales?

太好了，謝謝你讓我回來。往好處想，你在 SCS 的銷售業績非常出色，而且你似乎對 SCS 在 2026 年引領成長感到非常興奮。您能否詳細介紹一下您最近在科技孵化器方面取得的進展，這些進展催生了 RyderGyde、RyderShare、RyderShip 以及技術驅動的銷售模式？

In our research, it looks like load board and broker apps using AI have been supporting one truck owner operators. And I'd be curious to hear about similarity with your tech supporting your logistics managers and the outsourcers that you serve?

我們的研究表明，使用人工智慧的貨運平台和經紀人應用程式似乎一直在為個體卡車車主營運商提供支援。我很想了解一下，貴公司用來支援物流經理和您所服務的外包商的技術有哪些相似之處？

Yeah, John Diez here. Two components to your question. One around tech. Clearly, what we're seeing the investments we're making in RyderShare, RyderShip and some of the other technologies that our customer facing is making a difference.

是的，我是約翰‧迪茲。你的問題包含兩個部分。一個與​​科技有關。顯然，我們對 RyderShare、RyderShip 以及其他一些面向客戶的技術的投資正在產生影響。

That's really a big differentiator in what we're seeing in the sales activity. We are starting to see large customers take action in reshaping their supply chain. So these technologies are making a difference in those opportunities and how we compete.

這與我們在銷售活動中看到的情況確實有很大的不同。我們開始看到一些大客戶採取行動，重塑他們的供應鏈。因此，這些技術正在改變這些機會以及我們的競爭方式。

With regards to the second part of your question around AI, clearly, we're deploying some of these technologies, especially around agentic AI technologies with regards to improving our service levels and improving the effectiveness of some of our solutions.

關於您提出的第二個關於人工智慧的問題，顯然，我們正在部署一些此類技術，特別是關於智慧體人工智慧技術，以提高我們的服務水準並提高我們某些解決方案的有效性。

Specifically, around our transportation management and brokerage part of the business, that's making a difference in optimizing rate for our customers, improving overall service levels as well as improving our effectiveness around our freight bill audit and pay activity there. So you are seeing that in the supply chain space as well as some of the activities we're deploying to other parts of the business, including fleet management and dedicated.

具體來說，在我們運輸管理和經紀業務方面，這正在為我們的客戶優化費率、提高整體服務水準以及提高我們在貨運帳單審核和支付活動方面的效率帶來改變。因此，您在供應鏈領域以及我們正在部署到業務其他部分（包括車隊管理和專用）的一些活動中都看到了這一點。

Scott Group, Wolf Research.

Scott Group，Wolf Research。

Hey, thanks. Just real quick. Can you just let us -- what's in the guidance for gains in the fourth quarter? And it's always a little hard to know what that slide and the residual value is like how much cushions left to stay within the ranges on residuals before we risk either losses or having to do something with depreciation assumptions?

嘿，謝謝。真的很快。能否告知我們－第四季的收益預期是多少？而且，總是很難知道滑坡效應和殘值是多少，還有多少緩衝空間才能在殘值範圍內保持穩定，以免冒著損失的風險或不得不對折舊假設進行調整？

Yeah, hi Scott. So on the guidance itself, let me remind you, in the quarter, pricing was somewhat stable. And at this level, we're still maintaining gains on the on the P&L. So I would expect the fourth quarter to be similar or somewhat better because we are expecting on the high end, a modest improvement in pricing. So we think that it will be higher than the third quarter results.

嗨，斯科特。關於業績指引本身，我想提醒各位，本季定價相對穩定。而在這個水準上，我們仍然保持著損益表上的獲利。所以我預計第四季的情況會與第一季類似或略好一些，因為我們預期價格方面會有小幅改善。因此我們認為這將高於第三季的業績。

As far as how much can we sustain the sensitivity right now is we would need pricing to decline 8% from where it is today in order to hit the bottom end of our residual levels, we are not anticipating a decline. And so right now, that's not what we're forecasting, but that is the amount that it would need to decline to hit the bottom end.

至於我們目前能夠承受多大的敏感性，我們需要價格從今天的水平下降 8% 才能達到我們剩餘價值水平的下限，但我們預計不會發生這種情況。所以目前，這不是我們預測的結果，但要達到最低點，它需要下降這麼多。

Okay. So it doesn't sound like just to be sure, you're not planning any residual assumption changes or changes in accelerated depreciation or anything like that for next year?

好的。所以聽起來好像只是為了確保萬無一失，你們明年不打算對殘值假設、加速折舊或其他類似事項進行任何調整？

That's right. Right now, we're comfortable with our residuals where they're at.

這是正確的。目前，我們對剩餘收益的水平感到滿意。

At this time, there are no additional questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我謹將電話交還給羅伯特·桑切斯先生，請他作總結發言。

Okay. Well, thank you. We're near the top of the hour. So thanks again for your ongoing interest in Ryder and great questions. Talk to you guys soon.

好的。謝謝。現在快到整點了。再次感謝您一直以來對Ryder的關注與提出的精彩問題。很快和你們談談。

Thank you. That does conclude today's conference. We do thank you for your participation. Have an excellent day.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。非常感謝您的參與。祝您今天過得愉快。