萊德系統 (R) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System first quarter 2025 earnings release conference call. (Operator instructions) Today's call is being recorded. (Operator instructions)

早上好，歡迎參加萊德系統 2025 年第一季財報發布電話會議。（接線員指示）今天的通話正在錄音。（操作員指示）

I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.

現在我想介紹 Ryder 投資者關係副總裁 Calene Candela 女士。坎德拉女士，您可以開始。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Ryder 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。我想提醒您，在本次演示中，您將聽到 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》所定義的一些前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic, business, competitive, market, political, and regulatory factors.

這些聲明是基於管理層目前的預期，並受不確定性和情況變化的影響。由於經濟、商業、競爭、市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。

More detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.

有關這些因素的更多詳細資訊以及每個非 GAAP 財務指標與最接近的 GAAP 指標的對照表包含在今天上午的收益報告、收益電話會議演示文稿以及 Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中，這些文件可在 Ryder 的網站上查閱。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; John Diez, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Cristy Gallo-Aquino, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions, are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼首席執行官羅伯特·桑切斯 (Robert Sanchez)；總裁兼首席營運官 John Diez；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯蒂·加洛·阿基諾 (Cristy Gallo-Aquino)。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens；以及供應鏈解決方案和專用運輸解決方案總裁史蒂夫·森辛 (Steve Sensing) 今天參加了電話會議，並在演講結束後回答問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

現在，我將把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. I'm proud of our team for delivering double-digit earnings growth during the first quarter, in line with our forecast. The business continues to outperform prior cycles driven by our high-quality contractual portfolio and reflecting the actions we've taken under our balanced growth strategy to derisk the business, increase the return profile, and accelerate growth in our asset-light SCS and DTS businesses.

大家早安，感謝大家的參與。我為我們的團隊在第一季實現了兩位數的獲利成長而感到自豪，這與我們的預測一致。在我們高品質合約組合的推動下，該業務繼續優於前幾個週期，並反映了我們根據平衡成長策略採取的行動，以降低業務風險，提高回報狀況，並加速輕資產 SCS 和 DTS 業務的成長。

I'll begin today's call by providing you with a strategic update. Cristy will then take you through our first quarter results, and John will review capital expenditures and our increasing capital deployment capacity. I'll then review our updated outlook for 2025 and discuss how we expect to leverage the momentum of our transformed business model.

在今天的電話會議上，我將首先向您提供策略更新。克里斯蒂 (Cristy) 將向您介紹我們的第一季業績，約翰 (John) 將回顧資本支出和我們不斷增加的資本部署能力。然後，我將回顧我們對 2025 年的最新展望，並討論我們如何利用轉型商業模式的動力。

Let's begin on slide 4. Turning to slide 4, our transformed business model and execution of our balanced growth strategy continue to drive earnings growth. We remain on track to realize the benefits from our strategic initiatives outlined during our February earnings call. These benefits are the key driver of the year-over-year earnings growth we are expecting.

我們從第 4 張投影片開始。轉到投影片 4，我們轉變的商業模式和平衡成長策略的執行持續推動獲利成長。我們仍有望實現二月份收益電話會議上概述的策略性舉措所帶來的收益。這些福利是我們預期的年成長的主要驅動力。

Long-term secular trends that favor transportation and logistics outsourcing remain strong. The value that our solutions bring to our customers remains compelling, even more so during times of increasing complexity.

有利於運輸和物流外包的長期趨勢仍然強勁。我們的解決方案為客戶帶來的價值仍然引人注目，尤其是在日益複雜的時期。

By leveraging our operational expertise and innovative technology, we are well positioned to support our customers and prospects as they navigate changes to their supply chains and transportation networks. We generated ROE of 17% for the trailing 12-month period, which is in line with our expectations for an extended freight cycle downturn and continues to demonstrate the resilience of our transformed business model.

透過利用我們的營運專業知識和創新技術，我們能夠很好地支持我們的客戶和潛在客戶應對其供應鏈和運輸網路的變化。過去 12 個月，我們的 ROE 為 17%，這符合我們對長期貨運週期低迷的預期，並繼續證明了我們轉型業務模式的韌性。

Earnings growth in our contractual businesses reflects the value proposition and pricing discipline embedded in our high-quality contractual portfolio. We expect our transformed and cycle-tested business model to continue to outperform prior cycles.

我們的合約業務的獲利成長反映了我們高品質合約組合中蘊含的價值主張和定價原則。我們預計，我們轉型並經過週期考驗的商業模式將繼續優於先前的周期。

In addition to increasing the return profile of our business, the earnings power of our contractual portfolio continues to provide us with increased capital deployment capacity, which we expect to use to support profitable growth and return capital to shareholders.

除了提高我們業務的回報率之外，我們合約組合的獲利能力還繼續為我們提供更高的資本配置能力，我們期望利用這些能力來支持獲利成長並向股東返還資本。

During the quarter, we returned $202 million to shareholders by repurchasing 1.1 million shares and paying our quarterly dividend. Since 2021, we have repurchased approximately 20% of our shares outstanding and increased our dividend approximately 40%. We increased our 2025 forecast for free cash flow to a range of $375 million to $475 million, primarily due to lower expected capital spending.

本季度，我們透過回購 110 萬股股票和支付季度股息向股東返還了 2.02 億美元。自 2021 年以來，我們已回購了約 20% 的流通股，並將股息提高了約 40%。我們將 2025 年自由現金流預測上調至 3.75 億美元至 4.75 億美元，主要原因是預期資本支出較低。

Slide 5, illustrates how key financial and operating metrics have improved since 2018, reflecting the execution of our strategy. In 2018, prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS. Ryder generated comparable earnings per share of $5.95 and an ROE of 13%. Operating cash flow was $1.7 billion. This was during peak freight cycle conditions.

投影片 5 展示了自 2018 年以來關鍵財務和營運指標的改善情況，反映了我們策略的執行情況。2018 年，在實施平衡成長策略之前，我們 84 億美元的營收大部分來自 FMS。萊德的每股收益為 5.95 美元，淨資產收益率為 13%。經營現金流為17億美元。這是在貨運高峰期。

Now let's look at what we're expecting from Ryder today. In 2025, a year in which freight market conditions are expected to remain near trough levels, our transformed business model is expected to generate meaningfully higher earnings and returns than it did during the 2018 peak.

現在讓我們看看今天我們對萊德的期望。2025 年，貨運市場狀況預計將維持在低谷水準附近，我們轉型後的商業模式預計將產生比 2018 年高峰期更高的收益和回報。

Through organic growth, strategic acquisitions and innovative technology, we have shifted our revenue mix towards Supply Chain and dedicated with 60% of 2025 revenue expected to come from these asset-light businesses compared to 44% in 2018. As a reminder, 93% of our revenue is generated in the US. 2025 comparable EPS is expected to be between $12.85 and $13.60, more than double 2018 comparable EPS of $5.95.

透過有機成長、策略性收購和創新技術，我們已將收入結構轉向供應鏈和專用業務，預計 2025 年 60% 的收入將來自這些輕資產業務，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。提醒一下，我們 93% 的收入來自美國。預計 2025 年可比每股收益將在 12.85 美元至 13.60 美元之間，是 2018 年可比每股收益 5.95 美元的兩倍多。

ROE is expected to be 16.5% to 17.5%, up from the 13% generated during the prior cycle peak. As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses, operating cash flow is expected to increase to $2.5 billion, up approximately 50% from 2018.

預計 ROE 將達到 16.5% 至 17.5%，高於上一週期高峰期間的 13%。由於我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務的獲利成長，預計營運現金流將增至 25 億美元，較 2018 年成長約 50%。

As shown here, in 2025, the business is expected to continue to outperform prior cycles even when comparing prior peak to the current market conditions. We're proud of the strong performance of our transformed business model and believe that executing on our balanced growth strategy will continue to deliver higher highs and higher lows over the cycle.

如圖所示，到 2025 年，即使將先前的峰值與當前的市場狀況進行比較，預計該業務的表現仍將繼續優於先前的週期。我們為轉型後的商業模式的強勁表現感到自豪，並相信執行我們的平衡成長策略將在整個週期內繼續實現更高的高點和更高的低點。

I'll now turn the call over to Cristy to review our first quarter performance.

現在我將把電話交給克里斯蒂來回顧我們第一季的表現。

Thanks, Robert. Total company results for the first quarter are on page 6. Operating revenue of $2.6 billion in the first quarter, up 2% from the prior year, primarily reflects the prior year acquisition and contractual revenue growth in Supply Chain and FMS, partially offset by lower rental. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $2.46 in the first quarter, up from $2.14 in the prior year.

謝謝，羅伯特。第一季的公司整體表現請見第 6 頁。第一季營業收入為 26 億美元，比上年增長 2%，主要反映了上年供應鏈和 FMS 的收購和合約收入增長，但租金下降部分抵消了這一增長。第一季持續經營每股可比收益為 2.46 美元，高於去年同期的 2.14 美元。

The increase reflects higher contractual earnings in all segments, partially offset by weaker market conditions in rental and used vehicle sales. Return on equity, our primary financial metric, was 17%, as Robert previously mentioned.

這一增長反映了所有部門合約收益的增加，但被租賃和二手車銷售市場狀況的疲軟部分抵消。正如羅伯特之前提到的，我們的主要財務指標——股本回報率——為 17%。

Free cash flow increased to positive $259 million from $13 million in the prior year, reflecting lower capital expenditures. Turning to Fleet Management results on page 7. Fleet Management Solutions operating revenue increased 1% due to higher ChoiceLease revenue, partially offset by lower rental demand. ChoiceLease revenue grew 3%.

自由現金流從上年的 1,300 萬美元增加到正 2.59 億美元，反映出資本支出減少。轉到第 7 頁的車隊管理結果。由於 ChoiceLease 收入增加，車隊管理解決方案營業收入成長 1%，但租賃需求下降部分抵消了這一成長。ChoiceLease 收入成長了 3%。

Pretax earnings in Fleet Management were $94 million, down year-over-year as higher ChoiceLease performance driven by pricing and maintenance cost savings initiatives was offset by lower rental demand and used vehicle gains. Rental utilization on the power fleet was 66%, in line with prior year.

車隊管理的稅前收益為 9,400 萬美元，年減，因為 ChoiceLease 業績因定價和維護成本節約措施而提高，但被租賃需求下降和二手車收益所抵消。動力設備的租賃利用率為 66%，與前一年持平。

The rental fleet declined 3% year-over-year. Rental results for the quarter continue to reflect market conditions that remain weak, and the sequential decline in rental demand was below historical trends. Power fleet pricing was up 2%.

租賃車隊數量較去年同期下降3%。本季的租賃結果持續反映出市場狀況依然疲軟，租賃需求的季減低於歷史趨勢。電力車隊價格上漲了 2%。

Fleet Management EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 7.5% in the first quarter, below our long-term target of low teens over the cycle. Page 8 highlights used vehicle sales results for the quarter. Year-over-year used tractor proceeds declined 16% and used truck proceeds declined 17%.

第一季度，車隊管理 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 7.5%，低於我們週期內低十幾個百分點的長期目標。第 8 頁重點介紹本季二手車銷售結果。二手拖拉機收益年減 16%，二手卡車收益下降 17%。

On a sequential basis, proceeds for tractors decreased 7% and proceeds for trucks decreased 8%. These single-digit sequential declines were in line with our expectations. The sequential decline in tractor pricing reflects the sale of aged inventory in the quarter.

與上一季相比，拖拉機的收益下降了 7%，卡車的收益下降了 8%。這些個位數的連續下降符合我們的預期。拖拉機價格的連續下降反映了本季老舊庫存的銷售。

Excluding this activity, tractor pricing was up 3% sequentially, primarily driven by sleeper tractors. We expect sales of aged inventory to continue in the second quarter as we manage through our inventory levels. We were encouraged to see pricing on sleeper tractors increase sequentially. During the quarter, we sold 5,100 used vehicles, up sequentially and down from the prior year.

除此活動外，拖拉機價格環比上漲 3%，主要受臥舖拖拉機的推動。我們預計，隨著我們管理庫存水平，第二季度陳舊庫存的銷售將繼續進行。我們很高興地看到臥舖拖拉機的價格連續上漲。本季度，我們銷售了 5,100 輛二手車，較上季成長，但比去年同期有所下降。

Used vehicle inventory increased to 9,500 vehicles and was slightly above our targeted inventory range. Although used vehicle pricing declined, proceeds remain above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 19 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks for your information.

二手車庫存增加至 9,500 輛，略高於我們的目標庫存範圍。儘管二手車價格下降，但收益仍高於用於折舊目的的殘值估算。附錄中的幻燈片 19 提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收益和當前剩餘價值估算，供您參考。

Turning to Supply Chain on page 9. Operating revenue increased 3%, driven by new business and higher customer volumes. Supply Chain earnings increased 35% from prior year, primarily reflecting improved operating performance from strategic initiatives and new business.

翻到第 9 頁的供應鏈。受新業務和客戶數量增加的推動，營業收入增加了 3%。供應鏈收益較上年增長了 35%，主要反映了策略舉措和新業務帶來的經營業績改善。

Supply Chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 8.7% in the quarter, in line with the segment's long-term target of high single digits. Moving to Dedicated on page 10. Operating revenue increased 8%, reflecting the prior year acquisition completed in February of 2024. Dedicated EBT increased 50% year-over-year, reflecting acquisition synergies as well as prior year integration costs.

本季度，供應鏈 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 8.7%，與該部門長期的高個位數目標一致。移至第 10 頁的「專用」。營業收入成長 8%，反映了 2024 年 2 月完成的上一年收購。專用 EBT 年成長 50%，反映了收購綜效以及上一年的整合成本。

DTS results also continued to benefit from strong performance of our legacy Dedicated business, reflecting pricing discipline as well as favorable market conditions for recruiting and retaining professional drivers. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 5.9% in the quarter, below the segment's long-term high single-digit target.

DTS 的業績也繼續受益於我們傳統的專用業務的強勁表現，這反映了定價紀律以及招募和留住專業司機的有利市場條件。本季專用 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 5.9%，低於該部門的長期高個位數目標。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review capital spending and capital deployment capacity.

現在我將把電話轉給約翰來審查資本支出和資本部署能力。

Turning to slide 11. First quarter lease capital spending of $413 million was below prior year, reflecting lower lease sales activity. Rental capital spending of $78 million was in line with prior year. For full year 2025, lease spending is expected to be $2.1 billion, reflecting replacement activity. We expect the size of the lease fleet to remain fairly constant throughout the year.

翻到第 11 張投影片。第一季租賃資本支出為 4.13 億美元，低於去年同期，反映租賃銷售活動減少。7800萬美元的租賃資本支出與去年持平。2025 年全年租賃支出預計為 21 億美元，反映更換活動。我們預計租賃船隊的規模將全年保持相當穩定。

Rental capital spending is now expected to be $300 million, down from approximately $400 million in our prior forecast, reflecting our revised outlook. Our ending rental fleet is expected to decrease 9% during 2025, and our average rental fleet is expected to be down 4%. The rental fleet remains well below peak levels as we manage through an extended market downturn.

目前預計租賃資本支出為 3 億美元，低於我們先前預測的約 4 億美元，反映了我們修改後的前景。預計 2025 年我們的期末租賃車隊數量將減少 9%，平均租賃車隊數量將減少 4%。由於我們努力應對長期的市場低迷，租賃車隊數量仍遠低於峰值。

In rental, we've continued to shift capital spending to trucks versus tractors. At year-end 2024, trucks represented approximately 60% of our rental fleet. Our full year 2025 capital expenditures forecast of approximately $2.6 billion is in line with prior year.

在租賃方面，我們繼續將資本支出從拖拉機轉向卡車。截至 2024 年底，卡車約占我們租賃車隊的 60%。我們預測 2025 年全年資本支出約為 26 億美元，與前一年持平。

We expect approximately $500 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles in 2025. Full year 2025 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.1 billion. Turning to page 12. In addition to increasing the earnings and return profile of the business, our transformed contractual portfolio is also generating significant operating cash flow.

我們預計 2025 年二手車銷售收益約為 5 億美元。預計 2025 年全年淨資本支出約 21 億美元。翻到第 12 頁。除了提高業務的獲利和回報狀況之外，我們轉型後的合約組合還產生了大量的經營現金流。

Improving the overall cash generation profile of the business is one of the essential elements of our balanced growth strategy. Better earnings performance is driving higher cash flow generation and, in turn, is delevering our balance sheet at a more rapid pace.

改善企業整體現金產生狀況是我們平衡成長策略的重要要素之一。更好的獲利表現正在推動更高的現金流產生，進而以更快的速度降低我們的資產負債表的槓桿率。

This momentum is creating incremental debt capacity, given our target leverage range of between 2.5 times to 3 times. As shown on the slide, over a three-year period, we expect to generate approximately $10 billion from our operating cash flow and used vehicle sales proceeds. This creates approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity, resulting in $13.5 billion available for capital deployment.

鑑於我們的目標槓桿率範圍為 2.5 倍至 3 倍之間，這種勢頭正在創造增量債務能力。如幻燈片所示，在三年內，我們預計將從經營現金流和二手車銷售收益中產生約 100 億美元的收入。這將創造約 35 億美元的增量債務能力，從而有 135 億美元可用於資本部署。

Over the same three-year period, we estimate approximately $9 billion will be deployed for the replacement of lease and rental vehicles and for dividends, leaving around $4 billion of capital available for flexible deployment to support growth and return capital to shareholders.

在同一三年期間，我們估計將部署約 90 億美元用於更換租賃車輛和支付股息，剩餘約 40 億美元的資本可靈活部署，以支持增長並向股東返還資本。

We estimate about half of this capacity will be used for growth CapEx and the remaining to be available for discretionary share repurchases and strategic acquisitions and investments. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged and are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to shareholders.

我們估計，其中約一半產能將用於成長資本支出，其餘產能將用於自由股票回購與策略性收購與投資。我們的資本配置重點保持不變，專注於支持我們的策略，推動長期獲利成長並向股東返還資本。

Our top priority is to invest in organic growth. We've taken a balanced approach to investing and since 2021 have invested approximately $1.1 billion in strategic acquisitions and have deployed approximately $1.1 billion for discretionary share repurchases, reducing our share count by 20%.

我們的首要任務是投資有機成長。我們採取了均衡的投資方式，自 2021 年以來，我們已投資約 11 億美元用於策略性收購，並已部署約 11 億美元用於自由支配的股票回購，從而將我們的股票數量減少了 20%。

Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 259% at quarter end, at the lower end of our target range, and continues to provide ample capacity to fund our capital allocation priorities.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，季末槓桿率為 259%，處於目標範圍的低端，並繼續提供充足的能力來資助我們的資本配置重點。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our outlook.

說完這些，我將把電話轉回給羅伯特，討論我們的前景。

Turning to our outlook on page 13. Our full year 2025 comparable EPS forecast is updated to a range of $12.85 to $13.60, above prior year of $12 as higher contractual earnings and the benefits from our strategic initiatives offset the impact from market conditions in rental and used vehicle sales.

翻到第 13 頁的展望。我們對 2025 年全年可比每股收益預測更新至 12.85 美元至 13.60 美元之間，高於去年的 12 美元，因為更高的合約收益和我們戰略舉措帶來的好處抵消了租賃和二手車銷售市場狀況的影響。

Our updated forecast reflects a more muted macroeconomic environment than our prior forecast, which is expected to primarily impact rental demand. Class 8 production in the US is now expected to be down 20% whereas our initial forecast expected it to be up 1%.

我們更新後的預測反映出比先前的預測更為溫和的宏觀經濟環境，預計這將主要影響租賃需求。目前預計美國 8 級汽油產量將下降 20%，而我們最初的預測是產量將增加 1%。

Our second quarter comparable EPS forecast range is $3 to $3.25 versus prior year of $3 and assumes weaker rental demand. Our 2025 ROE forecast range is revised to 16.5% to 17.5% from 17% to 18%, reflecting our updated outlook.

我們對第二季可比每股收益的預測範圍為 3 美元至 3.25 美元，而去年同期為 3 美元，並假設租賃需求較弱。我們將 2025 年 ROE 預測範圍從 17% 至 18% 修訂為 16.5% 至 17.5%，以反映我們最新的展望。

The revised range remains in line with our expectations, given current market conditions. The extended freight downturn and economic uncertainty continue to cause some customers and prospects in lease, dedicated, and supply chain to delay decisions or downsize their fleets. These near-term contractual sales headwinds are consistent with current market conditions.

鑑於目前的市場狀況，修訂後的範圍仍然符合我們的預期。貨運業的長期低迷和經濟不確定性繼續導致租賃、專用和供應鏈領域的一些客戶和潛在客戶推遲決策或縮減車隊規模。這些近期合約銷售逆風與當前市場狀況一致。

We remain confident in the long-term secular growth trends for all our businesses and in the value our solutions bring to our customers. We remain focused on our initiatives and are confident that our transformed business model is capable of performing across a range of business environments.

我們對所有業務的長期成長趨勢以及我們的解決方案為客戶帶來的價值充滿信心。我們將繼續專注於我們的計劃，並相信我們轉型後的商業模式能夠在各種商業環境中發揮作用。

Turning to page 14. The key driver of expected earnings growth in 2025 is incremental benefits from multiyear strategic initiatives that are well underway and related to our contractual Lease, Dedicated, and Supply Chain businesses. We have good visibility to these initiatives.

翻到第 14 頁。2025 年預期獲利成長的主要驅動力是與我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務相關的多年期策略計畫帶來的增量收益。我們對這些舉措有很好的了解。

They represent structural changes we're making to the business and are not dependent on a cycle upturn. Upon completion, we expect these initiatives to generate annual pretax earnings benefits of approximately $150 million, which will be a key component to achieving our long-term ROE target of low 20s over the cycle.

它們代表了我們對業務的結構性變革，並不依賴週期性的改善。完成後，我們預計這些舉措將產生約 1.5 億美元的年度稅前收益，這將是我們在整個週期中實現 20% 以下長期 ROE 目標的關鍵因素。

In FMS, we expect to realize an incremental annual benefit of approximately $20 million in 2025 from our lease pricing initiative. This results in a total $125 million benefit relative to our 2018 run rate, reflecting portfolio pricing under the new model. We expect $50 million in benefits from the multiyear maintenance cost savings initiative announced in mid-2024.

在 FMS 中，我們預計到 2025 年，我們的租賃定價計畫將帶來每年約 2,000 萬美元的增量收益。相對於我們 2018 年的運行率，這總共帶來了 1.25 億美元的收益，反映了新模式下的投資組合定價。我們預計，2024 年中期宣布的多年期維護成本節約計畫將帶來 5,000 萬美元的收益。

In DTS, we expect to realize $40 million to $60 million in annual synergies from the Cardinal acquisition at full implementation. The majority of these synergies are related to maintenance efficiencies and replacing third-party operating leases with the benefits of Ryder ownership and asset management.

在 DTS 中，我們預計全面實施 Cardinal 收購後每年將實現 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的綜效。這些綜效主要與維護效率以及以萊德所有權和資產管理的優勢取代第三方經營租賃有關。

In SCS, we are focused on optimizing our omnichannel retail warehouse network through continuous improvement efforts, driving operational efficiencies and better aligning our footprint with the demand environment.

在 SCS，我們專注於透過持續改進努力來優化我們的全通路零售倉庫網絡，提高營運效率並更好地使我們的足跡與需求環境保持一致。

Since the second half of 2024, we have seen improved productivity in this vertical as a result of these actions and expect incremental benefits going forward. By 2025, we expect to realize benefits of approximately $100 million from these collective initiatives. Approximately $70 million of these benefits are incremental to 2024.

自 2024 年下半年以來，由於這些行動，我們看到該垂直行業的生產力有所提高，並預計未來將獲得增量收益。到 2025 年，我們預計這些集體舉措將帶來約 1 億美元的收益。其中約 7,000 萬美元的福利將持續增加至 2024 年。

In addition to continuing to increase the return profile of our contractual businesses, we are also focused on ensuring the business is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. As such, we expect an annual pretax earnings benefit of approximately $200 million by the next cycle peak and expect to begin realizing these benefits after 2025.

除了繼續提高合約業務的回報率之外，我們還致力於確保業務能夠從週期性好轉中受益。因此，我們預計到下一個週期高峰時，年度稅前收益將達到約 2 億美元，並預計在 2025 年後開始實現這些收益。

Although the majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable operating cash flows over the cycle, each business segment has meaningful opportunity to benefit from the cycle upturn. We expect the majority of the $200 million benefit to come from the cyclical recovery of rental and used vehicle sales in FMS.

儘管我們的大部分收入來自長期合約，這些合約在整個週期內產生相對穩定和可預測的經營現金流，但每個業務部門都有從週期好轉中獲益的重要機會。我們預計，這 2 億美元收益中的大部分將來自 FMS 租賃和二手車銷售的周期性復甦。

In Dedicated, improved driver availability and lower recruiting and turnover costs are benefiting earnings but have been a headwind for sales and revenue growth. As freight capacity tightens and driver availability becomes more challenging, we expect to see incremental sales opportunities and improve revenue growth in DTS as private fleets seek solutions to address this pain point.

在專用車領域，駕駛員可用性的提高以及招募和人員流動成本的降低有利於盈利，但卻阻礙了銷售和收入的成長。隨著貨運能力收緊和司機可用性變得更具挑戰性，隨著私人車隊尋求解決方案來解決這一痛點，我們預計 DTS 將出現增量銷售機會並提高收入成長。

In Supply Chain, weaker volumes in our omnichannel retail vertical have been a headwind to revenue and earnings. We expect Supply Chain results to benefit as volumes for these services recover and our optimized warehouse footprint is leveraged.

在供應鏈中，全通路零售垂直領域的銷售疲軟對營收和獲利造成了阻礙。我們預計，隨著這些服務量的恢復以及我們優化的倉庫空間得到利用，供應鏈績效將會受益。

We've been pleased by the business's resilience and performance during the extended freight downturn and are confident each of our three business segments is appropriately positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn.

我們對貨運業在長期低迷時期所表現出的韌性和表現感到滿意，並相信我們的三個業務部門都已做好充分準備，能夠從週期性好轉中受益。

Turning to page 15. Our transformed business model continues to deliver value to our customers and shareholders. We continue to outperform prior cycles, and our results are benefiting from consistent execution and the strength of our contractual portfolio.

翻到第 15 頁。我們轉變後的商業模式持續為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。我們的表現繼續超越前幾個週期，我們的業績得益於持續的執行和合約組合的實力。

We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth supported by secular trends, our operational expertise, and ongoing momentum from multiyear strategic initiatives. We remain committed to investing in products, capabilities and technologies that will deliver value to our customers and our shareholders.

我們繼續看到，在長期趨勢、我們的營運專業知識以及多年策略舉措的持續動力的支持下，獲利成長的巨大機會。我們始終致力於投資能夠為我們的客戶和股東創造價值的產品、能力和技術。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-Q later today.

我們的準備好的演講到此結束。請注意，我們預計將於今天晚些時候提交 10-Q 表。

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the call for questions.

現在，我將把電話交給接線員，開始提問。

(Operator instructions)

（操作員指示）

Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

喬丹·阿利格，高盛。

Yeah, hi, good morning. Just a couple of things. One, can you maybe talk a little bit more about the used vehicle market, sort of your thoughts around how that could shake out? Maybe more in the context of what are the puts and takes in terms of how that develops in terms of support or lack thereof for the used truck markets through the year?

是的，你好，早安。僅舉幾例。首先，您能否再多談談二手車市場，以及您認為該市場將如何發展？也許更多的是在關於全年對二手卡車市場的支持或缺乏支持方面如何發展的利弊方面？

And then secondly, can you talk about when you do one of your leases in FMS, the six -- I think they're six-year deals, what are you taking into consideration when you set up pricing? So once the new pricing initiatives run off, are you guys targeting a return on that contract over these six years as a margin? Just get some clarity on that. Thank you.

其次，您能否談談當您在 FMS 簽訂一份租賃合同時，六年——我認為是六年期合同，您在定價時考慮了哪些因素？那麼，一旦新的定價計畫實施，你們的目標是否是將這六年的合約回報作為利潤？只是弄清楚這一點。謝謝。

Okay. Thanks, Jordan. First up around UPS, I guess a simple way to put it is what we're seeing in UPS is consistently originally expected when we gave our forecast at the beginning of the year. We're seeing it is down. You saw that we reported it was down single digit sequentially, but a lot of that was really due to the fact we were selling some aged inventory.

好的。謝謝，喬丹。首先談談 UPS，我想簡單來說就是，我們在 UPS 中看到的情況與我們在年初做出預測時一致。我們看到它已經下降了。您會看到，我們報告稱其環比下降了個位數，但這在很大程度上是由於我們正在出售一些陳舊庫存。

If you exclude that, we were actually up specifically on tractors, which is really the area that I think we're most closely watching. We expect to still be selling some aged inventory in Q2. But then as we get into the second half of the year, we expect that to move much more to retail.

如果排除這一點，我們實際上特別關注的是拖拉機，我認為這確實是我們最密切關注的領域。我們預計第二季仍將銷售一些陳舊庫存。但隨著進入下半年，我們預計這一趨勢將更多地轉向零售業。

But we are seeing -- as we've been talking about the last several quarters, we've been seeing used truck pricing sort of bumping along the bottom, especially around tractors, trucks still coming down some more. I think with the drop in new tractor production for this year, the drop in the estimate, that should be beneficial for used trucks as you got less supply coming into the market, and therefore gives us a chance to finish working through as a -- I would say, as a market, finish working through the inventories that are out there.

但我們看到——正如我們談論的過去幾個季度一樣，二手卡車的價格一直在底部徘徊，尤其是拖拉機和卡車的價格還在下降。我認為，隨著今年新拖拉機產量的下降，預估產量的下降，這對二手卡車來說是有利的，因為進入市場的供應量減少了，因此給了我們一個機會來完成工作——我想說，作為一個市場，完成現有的庫存處理。

But let me hand it over to Tom to give you a little bit more color.

但請讓我把它交給湯姆，讓他給你更多細節。

I think Robert hit most of it and Cristy mentioned it in her opening comments. But here in the first quarter, we did do some wholesaling of some aged inventory. And we're expecting to continue that a little bit here in the second quarter. But when you get to the second half of the year, we don't expect that to continue, which will kind of naturally increase the price per unit going forward.

我認為羅伯特談到了大部分內容，克里斯蒂在開場白中也提到了這一點。但在第一季度，我們確實對一些陳舊庫存進行了批發。我們預計第二季這種情況還會持續下去。但到了下半年，我們預計這種情況不會持續下去，這自然會提高未來的單位價格。

When you strip all of that out and just look at the underlying trends, the pricing in retail is flattish. As you go through the different classes, we mentioned that sleeper pricing was actually up, which was a good sign. Additionally, I'll just mention a couple of comments about the inventory trends.

當你拋開所有這些因素，只看潛在的趨勢時，零售定價是持平的。當您瀏覽不同的艙等等級時，我們提到臥舖票價實際上已經上漲，這是一個好兆頭。此外，我只想提幾點關於庫存趨勢的評論。

Although it's -- the inventory is up year-over-year, the inventory has flipped from tractors to trucks. So tractor inventory is down quite a bit, almost 1,700 units. That's offset by the truck inventory going up. We like that better. The tractor inventory is historically more difficult to work through.

儘管庫存同比增長，但庫存已從拖拉機轉向卡車。因此拖拉機庫存下降了不少，幾乎有 1,700 輛。但卡車庫存的增加抵消了這一影響。我們更喜歡這樣。從歷史上看，拖拉機庫存的處理更為困難。

And we feel that the tractor inventory is in line and very manageable. And the elevated truck inventory, historically, we've been able to work through that. So we feel pretty good about those inventory trends and what that will mean in the future as well.

我們認為拖拉機庫存處於正常水平並且非常易於管理。從歷史上看，我們已經能夠解決卡車庫存增加的問題。因此，我們對這些庫存趨勢以及其對未來的意義感到非常滿意。

I'll try to answer your second question on how we price lease deals, but we target a basis point spread versus our WACC. And we look for a target that's between 150 bps spread from our WACC, and we've seen that here now for a number of years in that targeted range. And we continue to see that spread here in the first quarter and we certainly expect that to continue.

我將嘗試回答您的第二個問題，即我們如何為租賃交易定價，但我們的目標是與加權平均資本成本 (WACC) 相比的基點利差。我們尋求的目標是與我們的加權平均資本成本 (WACC) 相差 150 個基點，並且我們已經看到該目標範圍連續多年處於該範圍內。我們在第一季繼續看到這種蔓延，我們當然預計這種情況會持續下去。

Yeah. And I think your comment -- your question was also about as the initiatives -- I guess the pricing initiative catches the tail. The other thing to remember is that Tom also has a maintenance optimization, maintenance cost initiative, which he's continuing -- him and his team are continuing to execute on so that will still work through the next couple of years.

是的。我認為您的評論——您的問題也是關於這些舉措的——我猜定價舉措抓住了尾巴。要記住的另一件事是，湯姆還有一項維護優化、維護成本計劃，他正在繼續——他和他的團隊正在繼續執行，以便在接下來的幾年裡仍然有效。

And as you know, we -- I would assume as those roll off, we'll look for another set of initiatives to go after. But yeah, the goal is to continue to target the 100 basis point to 150 basis point spread while continuing to look for initiatives to improve returns over time.

如你所知，我認為隨著這些措施的實施，我們將尋找另一套措施來推行。但是，是的，我們的目標是繼續將利差控制在 100 個基點至 150 個基點之間，同時繼續尋找能夠隨著時間推移提高回報的舉措。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Jordan.

謝謝你，喬丹。

Christyne McGarvey, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Christyne McGarvey。

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I think you guys did a really nice job sort of outlining the kind of upside potential here as Ryder really has transformed to a new company. But maybe as I think about given some of the macro visibility being quite limited, it's obviously a much different company than we were anytime we had an outright consumer recession.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。我認為你們做得非常好，概括出了 Ryder 真正轉型為新公司所帶來的上行潛力。但也許正如我所想，考慮到一些宏觀可見性相當有限，它顯然與我們在經歷徹底的消費衰退時的情況大不相同。

So maybe you can talk a little bit about kind of that type of scenario. What sort of macro assumptions are in the low end of the guide currently? And if we do seem to talk ourselves into a recession here, what the earnings profile might look like?

所以也許您可以稍微談談這種類型的場景。目前指南的低端有哪些宏觀假設？如果我們確實陷入經濟衰退，獲利狀況會是怎麼樣？

Yeah. Great question, Christyne. Listen, I think, first of all, the outlook that we have is reflecting really a more muted economic environment, primarily due to all the market uncertainty that we're seeing. On the top end of the range, it's really driven by lower expected rental demand. We're just seeing rental softer in Q2.

是的。很好的問題，克里斯汀。聽著，我認為，首先，我們所看到的前景實際上反映出一種更低迷的經濟環境，這主要是由於我們看到的所有市場不確定性。從最高價位來看，這實際上是由預期租賃需求較低所驅動的。我們只是看到第二季的租賃有所疲軟。

We're assuming that creates a new baseline going forward. Used vehicle sales, we think, is in line with our prior guidance. We're assuming that continues. So it's really -- I would say the top end of our range is really a reflection of what we're seeing today in the marketplace as we sit here in April.

我們假設這會為未來創建一個新的基線。我們認為二手車銷售符合我們先前的預期。我們假設這種情況會持續下去。所以，我想說，我們產品範圍的高端實際上反映了我們四月在市場上看到的情況。

The low end of that range would assume further deterioration in the transactional businesses, really around our rental and used vehicle sales as we get into the second half of the year. But again, as you can see, even on the low end of the range, we're still expecting earnings growth year-over-year and we feel really good about that.

該範圍的低端將假設交易業務進一步惡化，特別是當我們進入下半年時我們的租賃和二手車銷售業務。但如您所見，即使在區間的低端，我們仍然預計盈利將同比增長，我們對此感到非常滿意。

And I think that's really, to your earlier point of how different Ryder is today versus where it's been at other times, a lot less dependent on the transactional rental and used truck market to hit our earnings numbers. And it shows the stability and resilience of the contractual business. You look at our Supply Chain, earnings are up 35%. Dedicated earnings are up 50%, granted there's an acquisition in there.

我認為這確實與您之前提到的 Ryder 目前的情況相比有很大不同，Ryder 對交易租賃和二手卡車市場實現盈利的依賴程度大大降低。也體現了合約業務的穩定性和韌性。看看我們的供應鏈，收益成長了 35%。專用收益上漲了 50%，前提是其中有收購。

Even FMS lease margins are up also. So the contractual businesses, even in this uncertain period, continue to provide earnings growth. And again, not to forget all the initiatives that we're working. We're talking about $70 million of initiatives that we have this year that are really the drivers of the earnings growth. So we feel really good about our ability to execute on from those.

甚至 FMS 租賃利潤率也上漲了。因此，即使在這個不確定的時期，合約業務仍能繼續帶來獲利成長。再次強調，不要忘記我們正在進行的所有措施。我們正在談論今年實施的 7000 萬美元計劃，這些計劃是獲利成長的真正驅動力。因此，我們對我們的執行能力感到非常滿意。

The team executed really well in the first quarter and expect that to continue through the balance of the year.

該團隊在第一季表現非常出色，預計這種表現將持續到今年年底。

Appreciate the call. Thank you.

感謝您的來電。謝謝。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫·考夫曼（Jeff Kauffman），Vertical Research Partners 的合夥人。

Thank you very much, and good morning, and congratulations in a tough environment. I wanted to ask maybe a question and a half here, if I could. In terms of some of the things you look at, so for instance, canary in the coal mine type stuff, rental fleet utilization, miles-driven accessorial charges, things like that, what are -- what's the canary telling you in terms of some of those early demand early utilization cycles? And then just a follow-up on cash flow, if I can.

非常感謝，早安，恭喜你在艱難的環境中所取得的成就。如果可以的話，我想在這裡問一個半問題。就您所關注的一些事情而言，例如，煤礦中的金絲雀，租賃車隊利用率，行駛里程附加費等，就早期需求早期利用周期而言，金絲雀告訴您什麼？如果可以的話，我再跟進一下現金流。

Okay. I'll let John give you some color on the stuff we're seeing.

好的。我會讓約翰跟你講講我們所看到的。

Yes. Jeff, for us, the number one indicator has always been rental. And if you look at rental, we did see softer conditions as we exited first quarter and into the month of April than what we had anticipated. What I will say that's unique within that, though, is if you look at the tractor class, and that asset, that tractor class, especially around papers, we have seen some early signs as we finished the quarter and started second quarter of capacity coming out of the market and stabilization around over-the-road tractor activity.

是的。傑夫，對我們來說，最重要的指標一直是租金。如果你看一下租賃情況，我們會發現，在第一季結束和進入四月份時，租賃情況確實比我們預期的要疲軟。不過，我要說的是，其中的獨特之處在於，如果你看一下拖拉機類別和資產，特別是紙張類拖拉機，我們已經看到了一些早期跡象，因為我們結束了本季度並開始了第二季度，市場產能正在減少，公路拖拉機活動也趨於穩定。

That is also supported if you look at our lease miles on tractors were up year-over-year on a per unit basis, which supports that. And then when you look at our used vehicle sales activity, we talked about the wholesale activity that Tom mentioned. But if you extract that from the results, you're looking at year-over-year improvement towards sequential improvements, I should say, in our tractor pricing on the used vehicle side.

如果你看一下我們的拖拉機租賃里程，你會發現每輛拖拉機的租賃里程同比增長，這也證實了這一點。然後，當您查看我們的二手車銷售活動時，我們談到了湯姆提到的批發活動。但是，如果你從結果中提取這一點，你會看到我們的二手車拖拉機定價逐年改善，我應該說，這是連續的改善。

So I would say, look, overall, I think it's a pretty muted environment, a wait-and-see environment by our customers. But if you're looking for some early activity, I would say, on the sleeper and tractor classes, especially the sleeper class, we're seeing some positive momentum there, which we hadn't seen for some time.

所以我想說，總的來說，我認為這是我們的客戶所處的相當平靜的環境、觀望的環境。但如果你正在尋找一些早期活動，我想說，在臥舖車和拖拉機類別，特別是臥舖車類別，我們看到了一些積極的勢頭，這是我們有一段時間沒有看到的。

Okay. And thank you for the clarity on the used vehicle pricing differences because that didn't seem to match the markets either at first glance. Lastly, thank you for the updated cash flow guidance. And I was just kind of wondering, you talked a little bit about share buyback. You talked a little bit about dividend.

好的。感謝您澄清二手車定價差異，因為乍看之下這似乎也不符合市場情況。最後，感謝您更新的現金流指引。我只是有點好奇，您談到了一點關於股票回購的事情。您談到了一些有關股息的問題。

Not any real discussion on M&A. And you're kind of anniversarying the M&A transactions of a year or two ago. I would think an uncertain environment and weaker demand might present an interesting opportunity on some of the M&A front. Can you talk a little bit about what would be on the wish list in terms of potential opportunities there?

沒有任何關於併購的真正討論。您是在紀念一兩年前的併購交易。我認為不確定的環境和較弱的需求可能會為一些併購領域帶來有趣的機會。您能否稍微談談願望清單上有哪些潛在機會？

Yeah, you're right. It should be a good time to buy if we find the right company. We're always in the market. We're looking. We're looking for companies where we can maybe bring some new capabilities, new verticals, if you will, in the supply chain.

是的，你說得對。如果我們找到合適的公司，現在應該是購買的好時機。我們始終處於市場之中。我們正在尋找。我們正在尋找可以在供應鏈中帶來一些新功能、新垂直領域的公司。

Anything that we could do around another type of Cardinal Dedicated opportunity, we would certainly be interested in, and then obviously, any tuck-ins in our lease business. That's really the 3 types of companies we look for. We want well-run companies that have a culture that could match well with Ryder's. So we are out looking. We're going to pull the trigger when we find the right ones.

我們肯定會對圍繞另一種類型的 Cardinal Dedicated 機會所能開展的任何活動感興趣，當然，還有我們租賃業務中的任何附加價值。這確實是我們尋找的三種類型的公司。我們希望選擇經營良好、文化能與萊德相符的公司。因此我們出去尋找。當我們找到合適的人選時，我們就會採取行動。

And that's really what -- right now, that's we would hope for. At some point, we'll find another good one and we'll bring it in.

這確實是我們現在所希望的。在某個時候，我們會找到另一個好的，然後將其引入。

But the good news is that our long-term targets are generally not dependent on a whole lot of acquisitions. I mean, on the supply chain side and probably to close the gap on some of that (inaudible) digit growth, we wouldn't want something. But generally, the earnings and return profile are not completely dependent on acquisitions.

但好消息是，我們的長期目標通常不依賴大量的收購。我的意思是，在供應鏈方面，可能為了縮小一些（聽不清楚）數位成長的差距，我們不想做任何事。但一般來說，獲利和回報狀況並不完全依賴收購。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thanks John.

謝謝約翰。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團、沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So I want to start on Supply Chain. Historically, there's a lot of auto exposure there. You talked a lot about now omnichannel. I guess those end markets seem to be somewhat in the crosshairs of tariffs. I'm guessing just what you're seeing from end market perspective there and what sort of potential risk you see as with tariff or we're not thinking about the business, right, and maybe it's more insulated?

嘿，謝謝。早安.所以我想從供應鏈開始。從歷史上看，那裡有很多汽車曝光。您現在談了很多有關全頻道的內容。我猜這些終端市場似乎在某種程度上處於關稅的打擊範圍內。我猜您只是從終端市場的角度看到了什麼，以及您認為關稅存在什麼樣的潛在風險，或者我們沒有考慮業務，對吧，也許它更具保護性？

Yeah, I'll let Steve give you some more background on that. But I'll start by telling you, remember auto the vast majority of the auto work we're doing are with US assembly plants. So we've actually seen relatively stable activity there with several customers really looking more closely at bringing more production into the US, which would be, I think, a positive on that.

是的，我會讓史蒂夫給你一些有關這方面的背景資訊。但我首先要告訴你，請記住，我們所做的絕大多數汽車工作都是在美國組裝廠進行的。因此，我們實際上看到那裡的活動相對穩定，有幾位客戶確實在更密切地關注將更多的生產引入美國，我認為這對此有積極作用。

And on the omnichannel, we got some cross-currents, I'll let Steve give you a little bit of color on what we're seeing there.

在全通路方面，我們遇到了一些分歧，我讓史蒂夫向您稍微介紹一下我們所看到的情況。

Yeah, Scott, as Robert said, if you think about our auto business, I think we've got a real diverse set of OEMs that we support primarily inbound and manufacturing. And the majority of those cars are sold in the US so we see kind of like very little impact there. CPG, same thing. Manufacturing here in the US for US consumption so little to no impact there.

是的，斯科特，正如羅伯特所說，如果你考慮我們的汽車業務，我認為我們擁有一組真正多樣化的原始設備製造商，我們主要支持入站和製造。而且這些汽車大部分都在美國銷售，因此我們認為美國受到的影響很小。CPG，同樣的事情。由於美國製造產品供美國消費，對美國的影響很小甚至沒有。

I'd say the area that we're watching right now is the omnichannel piece certainly from across our transactional business. Majority of those customers have options in countries that they produce in. So we're working closely with those customers, so I think that kind of gives you a good summary of it.

我想說，我們現在關注的領域是全通路部分，當然是整個交易業務的部分。大多數客戶在其生產的國家都有選擇。所以我們正在與這些客戶密切合作，所以我認為這可以給你一個很好的總結。

Yeah. The cross-currents there are really around the ones that are shipping from China, you're seeing a slowdown there. But the ones that are shipping from other countries, we're seeing it maybe a pull forward or an acceleration there. So again, that's kind of the color across the verticals. But in general, I'd say the majority of the work that we're doing in Supply Chain is really not seeing a big impact at this point.

是的。那裡的逆流實際上圍繞著從中國發貨的貨​​物，你會看到那裡的發貨量正在放緩。但對於從其他國家發貨的貨物，我們看到它可能出現提前或加速的現象。所以，這又是一種垂直方向上的顏色。但總的來說，我想說我們在供應鏈中所做的大部分工作目前並沒有產生很大的影響。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just a couple of things I just want to clarify. On the residual chart on slide 19, just any way to frame like how much more cushion you have on the bottom end of that chart? And then anything in a weaker Class 8 market, are you seeing opportunities in terms of savings on new truck pricing or maybe not because of tariff, I don't know, but any color would be helpful? Thank you.

好的。這很有幫助。然後我只想澄清幾件事。在投影片 19 上的殘差圖上，有什麼方法可以框出該圖底端還有多少緩衝空間嗎？那麼，在較弱的 8 級市場中，您是否看到了節省新卡車價格的機會，或者可能不是因為關稅，我不知道，但任何顏色都會有幫助嗎？謝謝。

I'll let Cristy answer the question on the residuals.

我會讓克里斯蒂回答有關殘差的問題。

Yeah. Scott, so what we're seeing is we would need another 5% drop in pricing levels from where they are today in the first quarter in order to get down to the bottom end of our residual estimates. So we still have room in our forecast. We talked about how tractor pricing is looking favorable sequentially. So we are expecting that to rise over the next couple of quarters here. So we're not concerned over what's happening there.

是的。史考特，我們看到的是，我們需要將第一季的價格水準從目前的水準再下降 5%，才能降至我們剩餘估計值的底端。所以我們的預測仍有空間。我們討論了拖拉機定價如何逐級呈現有利走勢。因此，我們預計未來幾季這一數字將會上升。所以我們並不擔心那裡發生的事情。

And I guess to answer your question on new vehicle costs, new vehicle pricing, as you know, we buy directly from the OEs in this environment, maybe a little bit of opportunity. But generally, our pricing with them is relatively stable. I would also add that given the talk of tariffs, we kind of see right now our exposure to the way things start today, our exposure is relatively limited and I would say minimal.

我想回答您關於新車成本、新車定價的問題，如您所知，在這種環境下我們直接從原始設備製造商 (OE) 購買，也許有一點機會。但總體來說，我們與他們的定價相對穩定。我還要補充一點，考慮到關稅問題，我們現在看到，從今天事態的開始來看，我們的風險敞口相對有限，而且我認為是最小的。

On the new vehicle side, the majority of the vehicles that we're purchasing are [USMCA] compliant. I say all the vehicles that we've purchased are USMCA compliant. Therefore, as long as that agreement or some version of that agreement remains in place, I would expect that the pricing impact on the new vehicles would be minimal.

在新車方面，我們購買的大多數車輛都符合 [USMCA] 標準。我說我們購買的所有車輛都符合 USMCA 標準。因此，只要該協議或該協議的某個版本仍然有效，我預計對新車的定價影響將是微不足道的。

And whatever that pricing impact is, we would certainly pass through to customers as part of our leases. So that's generally what we're seeing around parts. We're seeing a small increase, but again, very limited, again, based on the parts that we buy and the place of into those parts.

無論定價影響如何，我們肯定會將其作為租賃的一部分轉嫁給客戶。這就是我們在各個部分看到的大致情況。我們看到了小幅成長，但同樣非常有限，同樣取決於我們購買的零件和這些零件的產地。

Very helpful. Thank you, guys.

非常有幫助。謝謝你們。

Thank you, Scott.

謝謝你，斯科特。

Daniel Imbro, Stevens Inc.

丹尼爾·伊姆布羅（Daniel Imbro），史蒂文斯公司

Hey guys, this is Reed Seay on for Daniel. I kind of want to stay on the subject of Supply Chain Solutions. One of your bigger segments is the distribution management where you do a lot of warehousing. I think we've heard a lot more activity in this space recently. Have you all seen the same?

大家好，我是 Reed Seay，代替 Daniel 發言。我想繼續討論供應鏈解決方案這個主題。你們較大的一個部門是分銷管理，其中你們負責大量的倉儲工作。我認為我們最近聽到了更多有關這個領域的活動。大家有看到一樣的狀況嗎？

And if you could extrapolate kind of what you're seeing there into maybe some demand later in the truckload market? Just any takeaways there would be much appreciated.

您是否可以根據您所看到的情況推斷出未來卡車市場的需求？只要有外賣，我們就會非常感激。

All right. Let me hand that over to Steve.

好的。讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Yeah. I think as you think about the warehousing side of the business, we've seen in the quarter, we've seen volumes increase in CPG and in omnichannel, primarily our legacy retail business. So we haven't seen any decline there at that point.

是的。我認為，當您考慮業務的倉儲方面時，我們在本季度看到，CPG 和全通路（主要是我們的傳統零售業務）的銷量有所增長。因此我們目前還沒有看到任何衰退。

Demand, if you think about the pipeline right now, our pipeline is, I'd say, relatively flat year-over-year and sequentially still healthy, and we're seeing those opportunities come through in the warehousing side.

需求，如果你現在考慮一下管道，我想說，我們的管道與去年同期相比相對平穩，並且連續保持健康，我們看到這些機會在倉儲方面出現。

Thank you. And if I could just follow up real quick on the Dedicated side. We've heard from a lot of peers that this remains pretty competitive. If you could just provide some color on how the pricing there is, maybe how the pipeline is shaping up, and maybe any business wins that you've been able to pull off versus losses?

謝謝。如果我可以在專用方面快速跟進的話。我們從許多同行那裡聽說，這仍然具有相當的競爭力。您是否可以提供一些關於那裡的定價情況、管道如何形成以及您取得的業務成功與損失的資訊？

Yeah, I'd say kind of the same thing for the pipeline activity in Dedicated, relatively flat as you look at it. Decisions are still being delayed now six to nine months in both portfolios. And as you highlighted there in the end, we have seen some lost business, primarily in our nonspecialized Dedicated customer base, where customers continue to go after price and trade price for cost.

是的，對於 Dedicated 中的管道活動，我想說的是同樣的事情，當你看到它時，它是相對平坦的。目前，這兩個投資組合的決策仍被推遲了六到九個月。正如您最後強調的那樣，我們看到了一些業務損失，主要是在我們的非專業專用客戶群中，這些客戶繼續追求價格並以價格換取成本。

So they're really looking at the spot market. And then we're also seeing some of those customers with fleet reductions and network changes. So we're helping in some situations where our customers are also optimizing their networks. As far as price, we're seeing price discipline on these deals and continue to see opportunities.

所以他們確實有在關注現貨市場。我們也看到一些客戶的機隊減少和網路發生變化。因此，在某些情況下，當我們的客戶也在優化他們的網路時，我們會提供協助。就價格而言，我們看到這些交易的價格紀律，並繼續看到機會。

Yeah. I'd just add, remember, the Dedicated segment that we operate in is a specialized dedicated. So I'd say maybe hear from other companies is around the more traditional dry van, dedicated, where it could be more easily traded for truckload. So not that we don't have any of that because we have some of it, but I think the more specialized dedicated, you maybe have got just a different pricing dynamic there.

是的。我只想補充一點，請記住，我們營運的專用部門是專門的。因此我想說，也許聽到其他公司說的是更傳統的專用乾貨車，可以更容易換成卡車裝載的貨物。所以並不是說我們沒有這些，因為我們有一些，但我認為越專業化的專用，你可能就會有不同的定價動態。

Got it. Thank you for the color, guys.

知道了。謝謝你們的顏色，夥伴們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Ossenbeck, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的 Brian Ossenbeck。

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Let's start with a quick follow-up. You mentioned, I think Cristy, you mentioned the 5% decline to get to the low end of that residual range. I guess can you walk us through what happens if that, say, happen next quarter?

嘿，早安。感謝您回答這個問題。讓我們先來快速跟進一下。您提到過，我想克里斯蒂，您提到了 5% 的下降以達到該殘差範圍的低端。我想您能否向我們介紹一下，如果這種情況在下個季度發生，會發生什麼情況？

Would there be immediate adjustments? Or does that have to stay below that range for a period of time before you make an adjustment? Like what are the, I guess, implications and sort of next steps if we do see another leg down there?

會立即做出調整嗎？或者在進行調整之前，是否必須保持在該範圍以下一段時間？例如，如果我們確實看到另一條腿下去，我想，會有什麼影響，下一步會採取什麼措施？

Yeah, hey, Brian, so no, I mean, we are monitoring it closely. Obviously, we mentioned how our forecast right now is where it is, and it includes some of this impact of wholesaling because we're trying to get through the aged inventory, which we're expecting to continue through the second quarter.

是的，嘿，布萊恩，所以不，我的意思是，我們正在密切監視它。顯然，我們提到了我們目前的預測，其中包括批發的一些影響，因為我們正在努力清理陳舊庫存，我們預計這種情況將持續到第二季​​。

And from then forward, we are expecting pricing to come back up just based on market trends that we're seeing based on what we saw excluding this aged inventory as well as inputs that we get from other third parties that are seeing similar trends. But putting that aside, we do look at it.

從那時起，我們預計價格將回升，這僅基於我們所看到的市場趨勢，不包括這些陳舊庫存以及我們從其他第三方獲得的類似趨勢的投入。但撇開這一點不談，我們確實在研究它。

I mean, if there were to be a decline in the near future down to that 5%, anything that's sitting at our used truck centers would have an incremental charge associated with it. However, in our guidance for the year, we have a low end and a high end, and we did say that the low end would cover any potential downside, and we think we're more than covered by anything that could happen.

我的意思是，如果在不久的將來價格下降到 5%，那麼存放在我們二手卡車中心的任何車輛都會產生相應的增量費用。然而，在我們今年的指導中，我們有一個低端和高端，我們確實說過，低端將涵蓋任何潛在的下行風險，我們認為我們已經完全涵蓋了可能發生的任何事情。

But again, what we're seeing is more positive, and we don't think that any of it would be sustained at this level. And that's really the key. We got to make sure -- we make sure that it's just a current phenomenon, and that's something that may extend over a long period of time.

但同樣，我們看到的情況更加積極，我們認為任何一種情況都不會維持在目前的水平。這才是真正的關鍵。我們必須確保——我們必須確保這只是一個當前現象，而這種現象可能會持續很長一段時間。

Yeah. And I mean, as a reminder, you can see that on the chart, that bottom end is that the low end of where the market has gone only twice in the last 26 years. And it went for one quarter. So I think that's kind of another point there.

是的。我的意思是，提醒一下，你可以在圖表上看到，底部是市場在過去 26 年中僅經歷過兩次的低端。並且持續了一個季度。所以我認為這是另一個觀點。

But the fact that you got that historical perspective, and we're seeing tractor pricing beginning to move up, especially for sleepers, but even on the (inaudible) gone on, on retail base generally flat, I think that's a pretty good indicator of where things are. But again, we think we're well positioned for that.

但事實是，從歷史角度來看，我們看到拖拉機的價格開始上漲，特別是臥舖拖拉機的價格，但即使在（聽不清楚）繼續上漲的情況下，零售基礎也基本持平，我認為這很好地表明了情況的現狀。但我們再次認為我們已經做好了充分的準備。

Okay, got it. And then just another question on just the EPA standards on [2027] and some of the other ones more broadly. I know you said it's not necessarily a material impact for Ryder, but we are hearing signs that people are cutting their CapEx, rather not really doing much of a pre-buyer, at least putting that on hold. Are you hearing or seeing something similar? And I guess just to reconfirm what that would really do to your business or what you have sort of baked in for the rest of this year.

好的，明白了。然後還有一個問題，是關於 [2027] 的 EPA 標準以及其他一些更廣泛的標準。我知道您說這不一定會對 Ryder 產生實質影響，但我們聽到有跡象表明人們正在削減資本支出，而不是真正進行大量的預購，至少是暫停了這一操作。您是否聽到或看到類似的事情？我想只是想再次確認這會對您的業務產生什麼影響，或者您在今年剩餘時間內會做出什麼安排。

Yeah. So I would tell you, we haven't baked anything in for a pre-buy for this year. And as it relates to our business, we're not a dealer so we wouldn't have a big spike in sales. What we would do is we would have an opportunity to sign more leases and obviously would then, over a period of time, come in. So not a big impact in the near term either way.

是的。所以我想告訴你，我們今年還沒有為預購準備任何東西。就我們的業務而言，我們不是經銷商，因此我們的銷售額不會大幅成長。我們要做的是，我們將有機會簽署更多的租約，然後顯然會在一段時間內進入。因此，無論如何，短期內都不會產生太大影響。

I think in the long term, we had talked about a pre-buy might create some uplift on used truck values, maybe three years out, four years out, which is what happened during the last big change. But I think it's important -- that would have been -- that'd be nice if it happens but it's not anything we're counting on. It's not anything that we put in our pricing for leases, and it's not anything that we've contemplated as we've laid out our long-term targets for our business, our ROE or any of our earnings targets.

我認為從長遠來看，我們討論的預購可能會提高二手卡車的價值，也許是三年後，四年後，這就是上次大變革期間發生的情況。但我認為這很重要——如果真的發生了那就太好了，但這不是我們所指望的。這不是我們在租賃定價中加入的任何內容，也不是我們在製定業務長期目標、ROE 或任何盈利目標時考慮過的內容。

So I just want to make sure we're clear on that. It would be gravy, I guess, if it happened longer-term for used truck sales.

所以我只是想確保我們清楚這一點。我想，如果這種情況能長期持續下去，對二手卡車銷售來說，那將是一件好事。

Okay, appreciate the context. Thank you.

好的，請理解上下文。謝謝。

Harrison Bauer, Susquehanna.

哈里森鮑爾，薩斯奎漢納。

Great, thanks for taking my question. Last quarter, you provided a pretty clear bridge on EPS to the top end of the range. You mentioned sort of qualitatively that the commercial rental segment was a big driver of the top end of that range declining. Is that the whole of the $0.35 decline on the top end of the range?

太好了，感謝您回答我的問題。上個季度，你們為 EPS 和最高範圍提供了相當清晰的橋樑。您從某種程度上定性地提到，商業租賃部分是導致該範圍高端價格下降的一個重要因素。這是整個範圍頂端 0.35 美元的跌幅嗎？

Yeah. That's a good way to look at it. It's basically if you think about that waterfall, that upside that we had on rentals were basically taken that away. The remaining contractual earnings -- I would just add the remaining contractual earnings expectations in that waterfall remain intact.

是的。這是一個很好的觀察方式。基本上，如果你想想這個瀑布，我們在租賃方面的優勢基本上就消失了。剩餘合約收益——我只想補充一下，剩餘合約收益預期保持不變。

Okay. And then we're also seeing the spread between new and used vehicles sort of trend to an all-time high. How might you think that will flow through to your used vehicle pricing, particularly towards the second half of the year when you cycle through some of your older inventory? And any sort of tailwinds you might see to that sort of entering 2026? Thank you.

好的。我們也看到新車和二手車之間的價差趨於歷史最高水準。您認為這會對您的二手車定價產生什麼影響，特別是在下半年您循環使用一些舊庫存的時候？進入 2026 年，您認為會出現哪些有利因素？謝謝。

Yeah. I think as the new truck pricing has gone up, that creates lift for used truck pricing. And I think the used truck pricing, again, we've been -- as you can see on that chart, we've been seeing that pricing come back down, getting down to kind of trough levels.

是的。我認為，隨著新卡車價格上漲，二手卡車價格也會上漲。我認為二手卡車的價格，正如您在圖表上看到的那樣，我們已經看到價格回落，降至低潮。

Typically, in the marketplace, once you get to those levels, you see companies and sellers, if you will, start to look for ways of getting that pricing back up. So we're beginning to see that, I think, as the inventory of used equipment really starts to come down.

通常，在市場上，一旦價格達到這些水平，你就會看到公司和賣家開始尋找方法來提高價格。所以我認為我們開始看到這一點，因為二手設備的庫存確實開始下降。

That's where you start to see now more pricing. And again, we started seeing it in the first quarter. Again, short of the aged inventory that we got out of, we saw tractor pricing really start to move up for the first time. And I guess it's been a couple of years. So that's a really good sign and something that we -- again, as we're sitting here in April, we're continuing to see that trend.

從這裡你就能開始看到更多的定價。我們在第一季就再次看到了這一點。再次，由於我們清理出的舊庫存不足，我們看到拖拉機價格首次真正開始上漲。我想已經有幾年了。所以這是一個非常好的跡象，而且我們 — — 再次，當我們進入四月時，我們繼續看到這種趨勢。

We actually -- I should probably point out that we actually raised prices on sleeper tractors for the first time in the last couple of years this last month.

我們實際上——我應該指出，上個月我們實際上首次提高了臥舖拖拉機的價格。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

At this time, there are no additional questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給羅伯特·桑切斯先生，請他作最後發言。

Okay. Well, thank you all for your interest in Ryder and look forward to speaking with you soon as we get out into some of the conferences. Thank you.

好的。好吧，感謝大家對 Ryder 的關注，並期待在我們參加一些會議後儘快與您交談。謝謝。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you all for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。謝謝大家的參與。