萊德系統 (R) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Ryder System third-quarter 2024 earnings release conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is being recorded. You have any objections. Please disconnect at this time.

早安，歡迎參加 Ryder System 2024 年第三季財報發布電話會議。（操作員說明）今天的通話正在錄音。你有什麼異議。此時請斷開連線。

I would now like to introduce Ms. Calene Candela, Vice President, Investor Relations for Ryder. Ms. Candela, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下 Ryder 投資者關係副總裁 Calene Candela 女士。坎德拉女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Ryder's third quarter 2024 earnings conference call. I'd like to remind you that during this presentation, you'll hear some forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 .

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加 Ryder 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。我想提醒您，在本次演示中，您將聽到一些 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these expectations due to changes in economic business, competitive market, political, and regulatory factors.

這些陳述是基於管理層目前的預期，並可能受到不確定性和情況變化的影響。由於經濟業務、競爭市場、政治和監管因素的變化，實際結果可能與這些預期有重大差異。

For detailed information about these factors and a reconciliation of each non-GAAP financial measure to the nearest GAAP measure is contained in this morning's earnings release, earnings call presentation, and in Ryder's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available on Ryder's website.

有關這些因素的詳細資訊以及每項非GAAP 財務指標與最接近的GAAP 指標的調節，請參閱今天上午的收益報告、收益電話會議演示以及Ryder 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件（可在Ryder 網站上獲取） 。

Presenting on today's call are Robert Sanchez, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Diez, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Additionally, Tom Havens, President of Fleet Management Solutions; and Steve Sensing, President of Supply Chain Solutions and Dedicated Transportation Solutions are on the call today and available for questions following the presentation.

出席今天電話會議的有董事長兼執行長羅伯特‧桑切斯 (Robert Sanchez)；執行副總裁兼財務長約翰‧迪茲 (John Diez)。此外，車隊管理解決方案總裁 Tom Havens 表示：供應鏈解決方案和專用運輸解決方案總裁 Steve Sensing 今天將接聽電話，並回答演示後的問題。

At this time, I'll turn the call over to Robert.

這時候，我會把電話轉給羅伯特。

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. The Ryder team delivered another quarter of solid results despite an ongoing freight recession and market conditions, reduced vehicle sales and rental that remain weak. The key driver of our outperformance relative to prior cycles continues to be earnings growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses, which continues to demonstrate the effectiveness of our balanced growth strategy.

大家早安，感謝您加入我們。儘管貨運持續衰退，市場狀況不佳，車輛銷量和租賃量仍然疲軟，但萊德團隊仍取得了另一個季度的穩健業績。我們相對於先前週期表現優異的關鍵驅動因素仍然是我們的合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務的獲利成長，這繼續證明了我們平衡成長策略的有效性。

I'll begin today's call by providing you with key strategic opportunities. John will then take you through our third-quarter results, which were in line with our forecast. I'll then review our outlook and discuss how we are well-positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. Let's begin on slide 4.

我將首先向大家提供關鍵的策略機會，以開始今天的電話會議。然後約翰將向您介紹我們的第三季業績，該業績符合我們的預測。然後，我將回顧我們的前景，並討論我們如何做好準備，從週期好轉中受益。讓我們從幻燈片 4 開始。

Turning to slide 4, contractual earnings growth resulted from our business model transformation and execution on our balanced growth strategy continues to drive outperformance. Across all phases of the current freight cycle or earnings and return profile has been higher than prior cycles. Secular trends that favor outsourcing, large addressable markets, and the value that our solutions bring to our customers continue to support long-term growth opportunities in all three of our business segments.

轉向投影片 4，我們的業務模式轉型和平衡成長策略的執行帶來的合約收益成長持續推動績效優異。在目前貨運週期的所有階段，收益和回報狀況都高於先前的周期。有利於外包的長期趨勢、龐大的潛在市場以及我們的解決方案為客戶帶來的價值將繼續支持我們所有三個業務部門的長期成長機會。

Our initiatives are focused on further enhancing returns over the cycle. Adjusted ROE of 16% over the trailing 12-month period is in line with our expectations, given where we are in the freight cycle. Our contractual businesses continue to perform well, demonstrating the enhanced quality of our portfolio and increased resilience.

我們的舉措著重於進一步提高整個週期的回報。考慮到我們所處的貨運週期，過去 12 個月期間調整後的 ROE 為 16%，符合我們的預期。我們的合約業務繼續表現良好，證明了我們投資組合品質的提高和彈性的增強。

The current phase of our balanced growth strategy is focused on creating compelling value through operational excellence, investing in customer centric innovation, further improving full cycle returns, and generating profitable growth. We remain confident that continuing to execute our strategy while positioning ourselves for the cycle upturn will result in further enhanced full-cycle returns.

當前階段我們平衡成長策略的重點是透過卓越營運創造引人注目的價值，投資於以客戶為中心的創新，進一步提高全週期回報，並產生獲利成長。我們仍然相信，繼續執行我們的策略，同時為週期好轉做好準備，將進一步提高全週期回報。

The earnings power of our contractual portfolio is providing us with increased capital deployment capacity, which we expect to use to support profitable growth and return capital to shareholders. Our Board recently authorized a new discretionary two million share repurchase program, which replaced the prior two million share program that we completed in September.

我們的合約投資組合的獲利能力為我們提供了增強的資本部署能力，我們希望利用這種能力來支持獲利成長並向股東返還資本。我們的董事會最近批准了一項新的酌情 200 萬股回購計劃，該計劃取代了我們在 9 月完成的之前的 200 萬股計劃。

Year-to-date, we have returned $382 million in cash to shareholders through our share repurchases and dividends. Our full year 2024 forecast for free cash flow is unchanged at positive $150 million to $250 million. We're encouraged by our solid performance in the third quarter and year to date and believe that executing on our balanced growth strategy will continue to deliver higher highs and higher lows over the cycle.

今年迄今，我們已透過股票回購和股利向股東返還 3.82 億美元現金。我們對 2024 年全年自由現金流的預測維持在 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元的正數不變。我們對第三季和今年迄今為止的穩健表現感到鼓舞，並相信執行我們的平衡成長策略將繼續在整個週期內創造更高的高點和更高的低點。

Slide 5 is one that you are likely familiar with if you've been following our business model transformation. It clearly shows our key financial and operating metrics have improved since 2018, reflecting the execution of our strategy.

如果您一直在關注我們的業務模式轉型，您可能會熟悉投影片 5。它清楚地表明我們的主要財務和營運指標自 2018 年以來有所改善，反映了我們策略的執行情況。

In 2018. prior to the implementation of our balanced growth strategy, we generated comparable EPS of $5.95 an ROE of 13%. This was during peak freight cycle conditions. At that time, the majority of our $8.4 billion of revenue was from FMS. Supply chain revenue at a three-year growth rate of 16% and operating cash flow of $1.7 billion.

2018 年，在實施平衡成長策略之前，我們的可比每股收益為 5.95 美元，淨資產收益率為 13%。這是在貨運週期高峰期。當時，我們 84 億美元的收入大部分來自 FMS。供應鏈收入三年成長率為 16%，營運現金流為 17 億美元。

Now let's look at what we're expecting from Ryder today. In 2024, a year that should represent a trough conditions for used vehicle sales and rental. We expect our transformed business model to generate meaningfully higher earnings and returns that it did during the 2018 peak. Our 2024 comparable EPS is expected to be $11.19 to $12.10, double 2018 comparable EPS of $5.95.

現在讓我們來看看今天對萊德的期待。2024年，應該是二手車銷售和租賃的低谷之年。我們預計，我們轉型後的業務模式將產生比 2018 年高峰期更高的收益和回報。我們 2024 年的可比每股收益預計為 11.19 美元至 12.10 美元，是 2018 年可比每股收益 5.95 美元的兩倍。

ROE is expected to be up 300 to 350 basis points to a range of 16% to 16.5% above the 13% generated during the prior cycle peak when market conditions were strong and rental and used vehicle sales. Through organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and innovative technology, we have shifted our revenue mix toward supply chain and dedicated with approximately 60% of our 2024 revenue expected to come from these asset light businesses compared to 44% in 2018.

淨資產收益率預計將比上一周期高峰期（當時市場狀況強勁、租賃和二手車銷售強勁）的 13% 上升 300 至 350 個基點，達到 16% 至 16.5%。透過有機成長、策略性收購和創新技術，我們已將收入結構轉向供應鏈，並預計 2024 年約 60% 的收入將來自這些輕資產業務，而 2018 年這一比例為 44%。

Supply chain three-year growth rate is also expected to increase to approximately 20%. As a result of profitable growth in our contractual lease supply chain and dedicated businesses, operating cash flow is expected to be $2.4 billion in 2024, 40% higher than it was in 2018.

供應鏈三年成長率也預計將提高至20%左右。由於我們的合約租賃供應鏈和專門業務的獲利成長，預計 2024 年營運現金流將達到 24 億美元，比 2018 年高出 40%。

As shown here, the business is outperforming prior cycles, even when comparing prior peak to an expected trough. We are proud of the results of our transformation thus far, and we are confident that continued execution and momentum from multi-year initiatives positions us well for 2025 and beyond.

如圖所示，即使將先前的峰值與預期的低谷進行比較，業務的表現也優於先前的週期。我們對迄今為止的轉型成果感到自豪，我們相信，多年計劃的持續執行和勢頭將使我們在 2025 年及以後保持良好的地位。

I'll now turn the call over to John to review our third quarter performance.

我現在將把電話轉給約翰，以回顧我們第三季的業績。

Thanks, Robert. Total company results for the third quarter on page 6. Operating revenue of $2.6 billion in the third quarter, up 9% from the prior year, reflects our recent acquisitions of Cardinal and IFS. Comparable earnings per share from continuing operations were $3.44 in the third quarter, down from three $3.58 in the prior year.

謝謝，羅伯特。公司第三季的整體業績請見第 6 頁。第三季營業收入為 26 億美元，比上年成長 9%，這反映了我們最近收購了 Cardinal 和 IFS。第三季持續經營業務的可比每股收益為 3.44 美元，低於去年同期的 3.58 美元。

The earnings decline reflects weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental, partially offset by higher contractual earnings. In the quarter, we realized double-digit percentage growth from our contractual FMS, dedicated and supply chain businesses.

盈利下降反映了二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況疲軟，但部分被合約盈利增加所抵消。本季度，我們的合約 FMS、專用和供應鏈業務實現了兩位數的百分比成長。

Return on equity, our primary financial metric was 16%, the year-over-year decline reflects weaker used vehicle sales and rental market conditions. Year-to-date, free cash flow increased to $218 million and $32 million in the prior year. Primarily due to lower capital expenditures, partially offset by lower proceeds from the sale of used vehicles.

我們的主要財務指標股本回報率為 16%，年減反映出二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況疲軟。年初至今，自由現金流增至 2.18 億美元，上一年增至 3,200 萬美元。主要是由於資本支出減少，但部分被二手車銷售收入減少所抵銷。

Turning to fleet management results on page 7. The Management solutions operating revenue increased 1% due to higher choicelease revenue, partially offset by lower rental demand. choicelease revenue grew 7% with about one-third coming from organic lease revenue growth and the remainder from intersegment lease revenue from Cardinal vehicles operating in our dedicated segments. Pretax earnings and fleet management were $132 million and down year-over-year as anticipated.

轉向第 7 頁的車隊管理結果。由於 choicelease 收入增加，管理解決方案營業收入成長了 1%，但部分被租賃需求下降所抵銷。 choicelease 收入成長了 7%，其中約三分之一來自有機租賃收入成長，其餘部分來自我們專用部門營運的 Cardinal 車輛的部門間租賃收入。稅前利潤和車隊管理收入為 1.32 億美元，年減，符合預期。

Rental results continue to reflect weak market conditions. Although we saw some seasonal improvement in rental demand from the second quarter to the third quarter, the sequential increase was below typical patterns.

租金結果持續反映出疲軟的市場狀況。儘管我們看到第二季到第三季租賃需求出現了一些季節性改善，但較上季增幅低於典型模式。

Rental utilization on the power fleet was 71% compared to 75% in the prior year. This level of utilization on a fleet size that is smaller than historical levels reflects ongoing weakness in the freight environment and conditions that continue to bounce along the bottom.

電力機隊的租賃利用率為 71%，而前一年為 75%。船隊規模的利用率低於歷史水平，反映了貨運環境的持續疲軟以及持續底部反彈的狀況。

Our fleet pricing declined slightly by 1% due to a shift that the more demand coming from our light-duty trucks versus tractors. Results also reflect lower used vehicle gains compared to the elevated levels in the prior year due to lower volumes and pricing.

我們的車隊定價小幅下降了 1%，原因是我們的輕型卡車需求量超過拖拉機需求量的變化。業績也反映出，由於銷量和價格下降，與去年的高水準相比，二手車收益有所下降。

Our fire choicelease results and benefits from our maintenance cost savings initiatives partially offset the earnings impact from weaker market conditions in used vehicle sales and rental. Fleet management EBT as a percentage of operating revenue was 10.3% in the third quarter and is expected to remain at low double digits for full year 2024. In line with our expectations, given where we are in the freight cycle and below our recently increased long-term target of low-teens.

我們的消防選擇租賃結果以及我們的維護成本節約計畫帶來的收益部分抵消了二手車銷售和租賃市場狀況疲軟對獲利的影響。第三季車隊管理息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比為 10.3%，預計 2024 年全年將維持在較低的兩位數水準。考慮到我們所處的貨運週期，並且低於我們最近提高的低雙位數長期目標，符合我們的預期。

Page 8 highlights used vehicle sales results for the quarter. Compared with prior year, used tractor proceeds declined 22% and used truck proceeds declined 19%. On a sequential basis, proceeds from used tractors decreased 12% partly due to sales of newer equipment in the prior quarter and to a lesser extent, lower retail sales mix in the current quarter.

第 8 頁重點介紹了本季的二手車銷售結果。與去年相比，二手拖拉機收益下降 22%，二手卡車收益下降 19%。二手拖拉機收益環比下降 12%，部分原因是上一季新設備的銷售，其次是本季零售銷售組合的下降。

Proceeds for trucks increased 4%. During the quarter, we sold 4,700 used vehicles down sequentially and versus prior year. Our used vehicle inventory of 9,100 vehicles at quarter end, declined sequentially and is expected to decline further in the fourth quarter has fewer rental units are expected to be up service.

卡車收入成長了 4%。本季度，我們售出 4,700 輛二手車，與去年同期相比，季減。截至季末，我們的二手車庫存為 9,100 輛，環比下降，預計第四季將進一步下降，因為預計投入使用的租賃單位將減少。

Used vehicle inventory remains slightly above our target inventory range. Our used vehicle inventory mix has shifted towards trucks, which are experiencing more favorable pricing trends than tractors. Trucks comprised 43% of current inventory, up from 26% in the prior year. Tractor inventory was 48%, down from 62% in the prior year.

二手車庫存仍略高於我們的目標庫存範圍。我們的二手車庫存組合已轉向卡車，卡車的價格趨勢比拖拉機更有利。卡車佔目前庫存的 43%，高於去年的 26%。拖拉機庫存率為 48%，低於上年的 62%。

Although our used vehicle pricing decline proceeds remain above residual value estimates used for depreciation purposes. Slide 21 in the appendix provides historical sales proceeds and current residual value estimates for used tractors and trucks.

儘管我們的二手車定價下降收益仍高於用於折舊目的的剩餘價值估計。附錄中的幻燈片 21 提供了二手拖拉機和卡車的歷史銷售收入和當前殘值估計。

Turning to the supply chain on page 9, operating revenue increased 10%, driven by IFS and Cardinal acquisitions. Supply chain earnings increased 14% or $12 million from prior year, primarily reflecting stronger omnichannel retail performance and lower overhead spending. Supply chain EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 9.3% in the quarter, and is expected to remain in line with the segment's long-term target of high single digits for the full year 2024.

轉向第 9 頁的供應鏈，在 IFS 和 Cardinal 收購的推動下，營業收入成長了 10%。供應鏈收入比上年增長 14%，即 1,200 萬美元，主要反映了全通路零售業績的增強和間接費用的降低。本季供應鏈息稅前利潤佔營業收入的百分比為 9.3%，預計將與該部門 2024 年全年高個位數的長期目標保持一致。

Moving to dedicate on page 10. Operating revenue increased 49%, reflecting the acquisition of Cardinal Logistics. Dedicated EBT increased 31% or $8 million from prior year, reflecting improved operating performance and acquisition benefits.

移至第 10 頁進行奉獻。營業收入成長 49%，反映了對 Cardinal Logistics 的收購。專用 EBT 比上年增加 31%，即 800 萬美元，反映了經營業績和收購效益的改善。

Our legacy dedicated business continues to perform well, demonstrating its resilience over the cycle and the integration of the Cardinal acquisition remains on track. EBT continued to benefit from favorable conditions in the professional driver market as the number of open positions and times to flow continued to improve. Dedicated EBT as a percent of operating revenue was 7.5% in the quarter and in line with the segment's long-term high single digit target.

我們的傳統專用業務繼續表現良好，展示了其在整個週期中的彈性，並且 Cardinal 收購的整合仍在按計劃進行。隨著空缺職位數量和流動次數持續改善，EBT 繼續受益於專業司機市場的有利條件。本季專用 EBT 佔營業收入的百分比為 7.5%，符合該部門的長期高個位數目標。

Turning to slide 11. Year-to-date, these capital spending of $1.5 billion was below prior year, reflecting lower leasing those activities. Year-to-date, rental capital spending of $401 million was consistent with prior year and limited to replacement spend.

轉到投影片 11。今年迄今為止，這些資本支出為 15 億美元，低於去年同期，反映出租賃這些活動的減少。年初至今，租金資本支出為 4.01 億美元，與去年持平，且僅限於更換支出。

Our full year 2024 lease capital spending forecast remains unchanged at $2.2 billion, down from prior year due to lower lease sales activity, reflecting delayed decisions and economic uncertainty as well as increased redeployment and activity. Our year-end lease fleet is expected to increase moderately from Q3 levels.

我們對2024 年全年租賃資本支出的預測保持不變，為22 億美元，較上年有所下降，原因是租賃銷售活動減少，反映出決策延遲和經濟不確定性以及重新部署和活動的增加。我們的年末租賃機隊預計將較第三季的水平略有增加。

Our forecast for rental capital spending is unchanged from our prior forecast in our 2024 year-end rental fleet is expected to be down by approximately 2% year-over-year. In rental, we continue to shift capital spending towards trucks versus tractors as trucks have benefited from relatively stable demand and pricing trends.

我們對租賃資本支出的預測與先前的預測持平，2024 年底租賃機隊預計將年減約 2%。在租賃方面，我們繼續將資本支出轉向卡車而不是拖拉機，因為卡車受益於相對穩定的需求和定價趨勢。

Our full year 2024 capital expenditures forecast remains at approximately $2.9 billion and below prior year. We expect approximately $600 million in proceeds from the sale of used vehicles for the full year 2024. As a result, full year 2024 net capital expenditures are expected to be approximately $2.3 billion .

我們對 2024 年全年資本支出的預測仍約為 29 億美元，低於去年。我們預計 2024 年全年二手車銷售收入約為 6 億美元。因此，2024 年全年淨資本支出預計約 23 億美元。

Turning to page 12. In addition to increasing the earnings and return profile of the business, our transformed contractual portfolio is also generating significantly higher operating cash flow. Improving the overall cash generation profile of the business is one of the essential elements of our balanced growth strategy.

翻到第12頁。除了提高業務的獲利和回報率外，我們轉型後的合約投資組合還產生了顯著更高的營運現金流。改善業務的整體現金產生狀況是我們平衡成長策略的基本要素之一。

Better earnings performance is driving higher cash flow generation and in turn, is delevering our balance sheet at a more rapid pace. This momentum is creating incremental debt capacity given our target leverage range of between 2.5 and 3 times.

更好的獲利表現正在推動更高的現金流產生，反過來又以更快的速度去槓桿化我們的資產負債表。鑑於我們的目標槓桿範圍在 2.5 至 3 倍之間，這種勢頭正在創造增量債務能力。

As shown on this slide, which is similar to the slide from Investor Day between 2024 and 2026, we expect to generate approximately $10 billion from operating cash flow and used vehicle sales proceeds. This creates approximately $3.5 billion of incremental debt capacity, resulting in total capital deployment capacity of $13.5 billion.

如這張投影片所示（與 2024 年至 2026 年投資者日的投影片類似），我們預計將從營運現金流和二手車銷售收益中產生約 100 億美元。這創造了約 35 億美元的增量債務能力，使總資本部署能力達到 135 億美元。

For the same period, we estimate approximately $8.8 billion will be deployed for the replacement of lease and rental vehicles and approximately $400 million for dividends, leaving around $4.3 billion of capital available for flexible deployment to support growth and return cash capital to shareholders. We estimate about half of this capacity manner to be available for discretionary share repurchases and strategic acquisitions and investments.

同期，我們估計將部署約 88 億美元用於更換租賃和租賃車輛，約 4 億美元用於股息，留下約 43 億美元的資本可用於靈活部署，以支持增長並向股東返還現金資本。我們估計大約一半的產能可用於酌情股票回購以及策略性收購和投資。

Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged are focused on supporting our strategy to drive long-term profitable growth and return capital to our shareholders. Our top priority is to invest in organic growth. As we mentioned earlier, our Board recently approved a new two million discretionary share repurchases program. Since 2022, we have deployed approximately approximately $900 million for discretionary share repurchases, reducing our share count by 19%.

我們的資本配置優先事項保持不變，重點是支持我們推動長期獲利成長並向股東返還資本的策略。我們的首要任務是投資有機成長。正如我們之前提到的，我們的董事會最近批准了一項新的 200 萬股全權股票回購計畫。自 2022 年以來，我們已部署約 9 億美元用於全權股票回購，使我們的股票數量減少了 19%。

In addition, we've invested approximately $1.1 billion in strategic M&A. Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of 249% at the end of the quarter, just below the line of our target range and continues to provide ample capacity to fund our capital allocation priorities.

此外，我們還投資了約 11 億美元用於策略併購。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，本季末槓桿率為 249%，略低於我們的目標範圍線，並繼續提供充足的能力為我們的資本配置優先事項提供資金。

Turning to slide 13, our 2024 full year forecast for operating cash flow is unchanged at $2.4 billion, and our forecast for free cash flow remains in the range and positive $150 million to $250 million. As shown, operating cash flow remained strong, driven by growth in our contractual lease, dedicated and supply chain businesses, which comprise approximately 90% of Ryder's operating revenue. Our free cash flow profile has improved significantly since the implementation of our balanced growth strategy in late 2019.

轉向投影片 13，我們對 2024 年全年營運現金流的預測保持在 24 億美元不變，對自由現金流的預測保持在 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元的正值範圍內。如圖所示，在合約租賃、專用和供應鏈業務成長的推動下，營運現金流保持強勁，這些業務約佔 Ryder 營運收入的 90%。自 2019 年底實施平衡成長策略以來，我們的自由現金流狀況顯著改善。

The summary on the right side of the slide illustrates the free cash flow generated by the business prior to investing in fleet growth. In 2024, since we do not expect organic fleet growth given market conditions, our free cash flow forecast for positive $200 million at the midpoint of our range is the same as our forecast for free cash cash flow prior to growth.

幻燈片右側的摘要說明了在投資機隊成長之前企業產生的自由現金流。到2024 年，鑑於市場條件，我們預計機隊不會出現有機增長，因此我們對自由現金流的預測為正2 億美元（在我們範圍的中點），這與我們對增長前自由現金流的預測相同。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Robert to discuss our 2024 outlook.

接下來，我會將電話轉回給 Robert，討論我們 2024 年的展望。

Turning to our outlook on page 14. In the fourth quarter, we expect year-over-year earnings growth for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022 has higher contractual earnings offset the impact from continued weak market conditions and used vehicle sales and rental.

轉向第 14 頁的展望。我們預計第四季度的盈利將出現自 2022 年第四季以來的首次同比增長，較高的合約收益抵消了市場狀況以及二手車銷售和租賃持續疲軟的影響。

Our outlook does not assume freight conditions improve in 2024. The top end of our forecast range assumes a typical seasonal uptick in rental demand for as the lower end does not.

我們的展望並不假設 2024 年貨運狀況會有所改善。我們的預測範圍的上限假設租賃需求出現典型的季節性上升，而下限則不然。

Our fourth quarter comparable EPS forecast is $3.32 to $3.52, up from the prior year of $2.95. Our full year 2024 comparable EPS forecast is updated to a range of $11.90 to $12.40. Our 2024 ROE forecast is unchanged at 16% to 16.5% and in line with our expectations, given where we are in the freight cycle.

我們對第四季可比每股收益的預測為 3.32 至 3.52 美元，高於去年同期的 2.95 美元。我們對 2024 年全年可比每股收益預測更新至 11.90 美元至 12.40 美元的範圍。鑑於我們所處的貨運週期，我們對 2024 年 ROE 的預測保持在 16% 至 16.5% 不變，符合我們的預期。

The extended freight downturns and economic uncertainty have been causing some customers and prospects and lease dedicated and supply chain to delay decisions and downsized their fleets. These near-term contractual sales headwinds are consistent with the current economic environment.

持續的貨運低迷和經濟不確定性已導致一些客戶和潛在客戶以及租賃專用和供應鏈推遲決策並縮小其船隊規模。這些近期合約銷售阻力與當前的經濟環境一致。

We remain confident in the long-term secular growth trends in all our businesses. We believe the transformative changes that we've made will continue to drive outperformance relative to prior cycles and that all segments are well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn.

我們對所有業務的長期長期成長趨勢仍然充滿信心。我們相信，我們所做的變革將繼續推動業績優於先前的週期，並且所有細分市場都處於有利位置，可以從週期的改善中受益。

Turning to slide 15. In addition to managing through the downturn, we are also focused on ensuring that the business is well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn. As we outlined at our Investor Day in June, we expect an annual pretax earnings benefit of approximately $200 million by the next cycle peak.

轉到投影片 15。除了應對經濟低迷之外，我們還致力於確保業務處於有利位置，並從週期好轉中受益。正如我們在 6 月的投資者日所概述的那樣，我們預計到下一個週期高峰時，年度稅前收益將達到約 2 億美元。

Although the majority of our revenue is supported by long-term contracts that generate relatively stable and predictable operating cash flows over the cycle, each business segment still has an opportunity to benefit from this cycle upturn. We expect a large share of the $200 million benefit to come from the cyclical recovery of used vehicle sales and rental in FMS.

儘管我們的大部分收入都是由長期合約支撐的，這些合約在整個週期內產生相對穩定和可預測的經營現金流，但每個業務部門仍然有機會從這個週期的改善中受益。我們預計 2 億美元的收益中很大一部分將來自 FMS 二手車銷售和租賃的周期性復甦。

In dedicated, improved driver availability at lower recruiting and turnover costs are benefiting earnings but have been a headwind for new sales and revenue growth. As freight capacity tightens and driver availability becomes more challenging, we expect to see incremental sales opportunities and improved revenue growth in dedicated private fleets seek solutions to address this pain point.

在專注方面，以較低的招募和人員流動成本提高司機的可用性有利於盈利，但對新的銷售和收入成長來說卻是一個阻力。隨著貨運能力的收緊和司機的可用性變得更具挑戰性，我們預計專用私人車隊將增加銷售機會並提高收入成長，尋求解決這一痛點的解決方案。

In supply chain, weaker volumes in our omnichannel retail vertical have been a headwind to revenue and earnings. We expect supply chain results to benefit as volumes for these services recover and our warehouse footprint is leveraged. We've been pleased by the business' outperformance over the cycle and believe we have appropriately positioned all three segments to benefit from the cycle upturn.

在供應鏈中，我們的全通路零售垂直市場的銷售疲軟一直是營收和獲利的阻力。我們預計，隨著這些服務的數量恢復以及我們的倉庫足跡得到利用，供應鏈績效將受益。我們對該業務在整個週期中的優異表現感到高興，並相信我們已適當定位所有三個部門，以便從週期好轉中受益。

Turning to page 16. In addition to the benefits we expect from the cycle upturn, we also expect incremental benefit of approximately $150 million in annual pretax earnings from profitable contractual growth and our multiyear strategic initiatives, the key drivers of achieving our long-term ROE target of low 20s over the cycle.

翻到第16頁。除了我們預期的周期改善的好處外，我們還預計可獲利的合約成長和我們的多年策略舉措將帶來約1.5 億美元的年度稅前收益增量收益，這是實現我們20 多歲的長期ROE 目標的關鍵驅動力。

In FMS, we expect to realize the full annual benefit of $125 million from our lease pricing initiative in 2025. This benefit is relative to our 2018 run rate with an incremental impact of approximately $20 million estimated for 2025 as lease renewals are priced under the new model. We also expect to realize benefits from the$ 50 million multi-year maintenance cost savings initiative announced earlier this year.

在 FMS 中，我們預計到 2025 年我們的租賃定價計畫將實現 1.25 億美元的全年收益。這項效益與我們 2018 年的運行率相關，預計到 2025 年將產生約 2000 萬美元的增量影響，因為續約是根據新模式定價的。我們還期望從今年稍早宣布的 5,000 萬美元多年維護成本節約計畫中獲益。

In dedicated, we expect to realize $40 million to $60 million in annual synergies from the Cardinal acquisition at full implementation. The integration is on track with good line of sight to the majority of expected synergies, which are related to maintenance efficiencies and replacing third-party operating leases with the benefits of Ryder ownership and asset management.

具體來說，我們預計在全面實施後，Cardinal 收購將帶來 4,000 萬至 6,000 萬美元的年度協同效應。此次整合正在順利進行，大部分預期協同效應都具有良好的前景，這些協同效應與維護效率以及利用 Ryder 所有權和資產管理的優勢取代第三方經營租賃有關。

In supply chain, we continue to optimize our omnichannel retail network to better align our warehouse footprint with the demand environment. During the third quarter, we began to see improved productivity in this vertical as a result of these actions and expect incremental benefits going forward. We are confident that ongoing execution of our strategy will continue to lift our returns profile.

在供應鏈方面，我們繼續優化全通路零售網絡，以更好地使我們的倉庫足跡與需求環境保持一致。在第三季度，由於這些行動，我們開始看到該垂直領域的生產力有所提高，並預計未來將帶來增量效益。我們相信，我們策略的持續執行將持續提升我們的報酬率。

Turning to page 17. Ryder is delivering value to our shareholders with more to come. Implementing our balanced growth strategy, we have generated higher highs and higher lows over the cycle. This outperformance and increased resiliency reflects strategy execution and a transformative changes to the business model.

翻到第17頁。萊德正在為我們的股東創造更多價值。實施我們的平衡成長策略，我們在整個週期中創造了更高的高點和更高的低點。這種出色的表現和增強的彈性反映了策略執行和業務模式的變革。

We continue to see significant opportunity for profitable growth, supported by secular trends, our operational expertise, and ongoing momentum from multi-year initiatives. We remain committed to investing in capabilities and customer centric innovation that will deliver value to customers and keep us well positioned to benefit from the cycle upturn.

在長期趨勢、我們的營運專業知識以及多年計劃的持續動力的支持下，我們繼續看到盈利增長的重大機會。我們仍然致力於投資於能力和以客戶為中心的創新，這將為客戶帶來價值，並使我們能夠從週期好轉中受益。

That concludes our prepared remarks. Please note that we expect to file our 10-Q later today. Please limit yourself to one question each. If you have additional questions, you're welcome to get back in the queue and we'll take as many as we can.

我們準備好的演講到此結束。請注意，我們預計今天晚些時候提交 10-Q。請每人只回答一個問題。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎您回到隊列中，我們會盡可能解答。

At this time, I'll turn it over to the operator.

這時候我就把它交給接線生了。

(Operator Instructions) Jordan Alliger, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）Jordan Alliger，高盛。

Yeah, hi, morning. Question, I know you sort of expect to hit the full run rate on the lease repricing in 2025. But I am curious, given the ongoing freight slowness out there, you maybe talk to your lease renewal experience broadly, both on new business who might be bringing new customers versus renewals?

是的，嗨，早安。問題是，我知道您希望在 2025 年達到租賃重新定價的滿額運行率。但我很好奇，考慮到目前的貨運緩慢，您可能會廣泛地談論您的租約續約經驗，無論是關於可能帶來新客戶的新業務還是續約？

And then, you mentioned, I think, this private fleet. I guess I don't know if it's the same question, but we've heard that private fleets have been increasing at the expense of four higher fleets. So I'm wondering if that works to the benefit of the leasing company like yourself for these retailers might be expanding their own capacity, so to speak, leasing versus owning, what you could that be some tailwind? Thank you.

然後，我想你提到了這支私人艦隊。我想我不知道這是否是同一個問題，但我們聽說私人艦隊一直在增加，但以犧牲四支高級艦隊為代價。所以我想知道這是否有利於像您這樣的租賃公司，因為這些零售商可能會擴大自己的產能，可以這麼說，租賃與擁有相比，這會是一些順風嗎？謝謝。

Thanks, Jordan. Yeah, I think first question around pricing and the pricing benefits, we do expect to get the full -- complete the full benefit of the price of the repricing of $125 million. We're looking at next year, probably just the final $20 million of that initial. As it relates to renewals and new customers, yeah, I think I'll let Tom give a little bit more color, but we are seeing in our base customers, which are primarily private fleets not growing their fleets as much as we have seen over the last several years. I think that is a reflection of maybe what you're hearing, where you're hearing the private fleet really grew their fleets.

謝謝，喬丹。是的，我認為關於定價和定價收益的第一個問題，我們確實希望獲得 1.25 億美元重新定價價格的全部收益。我們正在考慮明年，可能只是最初的最後 2000 萬美元。由於它涉及續約和新客戶，是的，我想我會讓湯姆提供更多的色彩，但我們在我們的基本客戶中看到，這些客戶主要是私人車隊，其車隊的增長速度沒有我們所看到的那麼多過去幾年。我認為這可能反映了您所聽到的情況，您聽說私人艦隊確實增加了他們的艦隊。

Now, that vehicles have come in, there's less of a need to add more and maybe even some downsizing that we're seeing with existing customers as they right-size their fleets. But long term, as private fleets continue to grow, we should see some benefits. But I'll let Tom give you more color what we're seeing currently with renewals. The majority of our lease customers, just to be clear, our private fleets as opposed to four higher.

現在，這些車輛已經投入使用，不再需要增加更多車輛，甚至可能縮小規模，就像我們在現有客戶調整車隊規模時所看到的那樣。但從長遠來看，隨著私人車隊的不斷增長，我們應該會看到一些好處。但我會讓湯姆給你更多關於我們目前所看到的更新的資訊。需要明確的是，我們的大多數租賃客戶是我們的私人車隊，而不是四個以上。

Yeah. Thank you, you hit it, Robert. What we're seeing, it's been relatively slow sales year as you as you might expect. When we get to the renewal of stages of the leases, we have seen some customers downsized their fleet. So let's say they're renewing 10 units, they might only renew 9, you know, something like that.

是的。謝謝你，你成功了，羅伯特。正如您所預期的那樣，我們看到今年的銷售相對緩慢。當我們進入續租階段時，我們看到一些客戶縮小了他們的機隊規模。假設他們要續訂 10 個單位，他們可能只會續訂 9 個，你知道，類似的東西。

And then on the new business front, I would say from a pricing perspective, I'll just reiterate some points that we've made in the past is that we have a compelling value prop when you compare to ownership still particularly in this high inflation environment that most customers have had experienced.

然後在新業務方面，我想說，從定價的角度來看，我只是重申我們過去提出的一些觀點，即當你與所有權進行比較時，特別是在這種高通脹的情況下，我們擁有令人信服的價值支撐著大多數顧客都經歷過的環境。

We're well positioned to deal with those inflationary pressures and have a compelling value prop versus ownership. So we have to sell that sometimes on our renewal, and we also sold out obviously one work we're quoting new business as well.

我們有能力應對這些通膨壓力，並且相對於所有權而言，我們擁有令人信服的價值支撐。所以我們有時必須在續訂時出售它，而且我們顯然也賣掉了我們引用新業務的一件作品。

Got it. Thanks. And then just real quick follow-up. I know the expectation is rental, at least in the forecast stay weak, but is there any signs or thoughts that I mean, it feels like we should be at a bottom on and if you agree with that at any sort of color or commentary around that? And is there any signs that there may be some recovery there at some point in 2025?

知道了。謝謝。然後就是真正的快速跟進。我知道預期是租金，至少在預測中保持疲弱，但有沒有任何跡像或想法表明我的意思是，感覺我們應該觸底，如果您同意周圍的任何顏色或評論那？是否有任何跡象表明 2025 年某個時候可能會出現復甦？

Yeah. I think, your comment about bottoming as kind of what we're seeing. We saw in Q3 was seasonal pickup certainly not any type of larger pickup that would indicate the market is coming back. So a seasonal -- but a seasonal pickup is better than a decline. So we will take it, but nothing yet in terms of a pickup in the freight market.

是的。我認為，您關於觸底的評論就像我們所看到的那樣。我們在第三季度看到的是季節性回升，當然不是任何類型的較大回升表明市場正在復甦。所以這是季節性的——但季節性的回升總比下降好。所以我們會接受它，但在貨運市場的回升方面還沒有任何進展。

I mean the freight market is now, I guess, were nine quarters into this downturn. So we are certainly going to be closer to the end in the beginning. And I think it's reasonable to expect that will be an upturn sometime in '25, but we are not calling for that to happen in the fourth quarter other than just continuing to bottom.

我的意思是，我猜貨運市場現在已經進入低迷期九個季度了。所以我們一開始肯定會更接近結局。我認為，預計 25 年某個時候會出現好轉是合理的，但我們並不要求這種情況在第四季度發生，而只是繼續觸底。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Christine McCarthy, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）Christine McCarthy，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just may be a follow-up on that conversation. Can you talk a little bit -- I know it's early days here for fourth quarter, but what in terms of the seasonality that had been seeing so far, if any, and kind of how that plays into delivering the potentially higher end of the 4Q guidance range?

偉大的。謝謝。大家早安。可能只是那次談話的後續。您能談談嗎？

So seasonality and rental that we see. Tom, do you want to give some color so far in the month?

我們看到了季節性和租金。湯姆，這個月到目前為止你想給我們一些色彩嗎？

Yes. So like Robert mentioned, in Q3, we did see an uptick in demand, but that uptick in demand was when you compare to previous years, just seasonality. In fact, it was on the lower end of a seasonality uptick from Q3 to -- sorry, from Q2 to Q3, as we're sitting here a few weeks into the fourth quarter, we haven't seen anything other than seasonal uptick.

是的。正如羅伯特所提到的，在第三季度，我們確實看到需求上升，但需求的上升是與前幾年相比，只是季節性的。事實上，它正處於從第三季度到第三季度的季節性上升的低端——抱歉，從第二季度到第三季度，因為我們現在已經進入第四季度幾週了，所以除了季節性上升之外，我們沒有看到任何其他情況。

There has been no signs of recovery yet here in the fourth quarter. And we are certainly not expecting the and to have inherent in the fourth quarter other than the normal seasonal holiday increase that we would typically get from a demand perspective with Thanksgiving and Christmas. That's all we're expecting is that normal seasonality here in the fourth quarter.

第四季尚未出現復甦跡象。我們當然不期望第四季度固有的，除了正常的季節性假期增長，我們通常從感恩節和聖誕節的需求角度來看。我們所期望的就是第四季的正常季節性。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you, Christine.

謝謝你，克里斯汀。

Jeff Kauffman, Vertical Research Partners.

傑夫考夫曼，垂直研究夥伴。

Thank you very much, and congratulations, everybody. I want to focus on the tail wagging the dog here. I just kind of have two questions. I understand what's going with choicelease and private fleets. That part I get. But selectcare vehicles have been dropping at about a 5% rate for a couple of quarters now.

非常感謝大家，也恭喜大家。我想重點關注這裡搖尾巴的事情。我只是有兩個問題。我了解 choicelease 和私人車隊的情況。我明白了那部分。但現在幾個季度以來，精選護理車輛一直以 5% 左右的速度下降。

And I always thought outsourced maintenance was kind of part of the pitch to a lot of these fleets. And while we're talking about selectcare, rental fleet, utilization still barely above 70%, that would imply we want to reduce the fleet. But your ratio of rental fleet to full service lease vehicles is about 20% below normal right now.

我一直認為外包維護是許多此類車隊的一部分。雖然我們談論的是 selectcare、租賃車隊，但利用率仍略高於 70%，這意味著我們希望減少車隊。但目前您的租賃車隊與全方位服務租賃車輛的比例比正常水平低約 20%。

So do we not really take down the rental fleet despite the low utilization. Do we just kind of washed through that? So selectcare and rental fleet. Those are my questions.

因此，儘管利用率很低，我們是否真的不會取消租賃車隊。我們是否就這樣度過了難關？因此選擇護理和租賃車隊。這些都是我的問題。

So I'll let Tom give you the color on selectcare. count paying on the rental fleet, though, I think the good point. We have -- historically, we've really brought the rental fleet down pretty significantly and then we've been slow to get it back. And I think in many ways I've missed out on a lot of the rental upturn even have had customers on an upturn that we haven't had vehicles for.

因此，我將讓 Tom 為您介紹 selectcare 的顏色。不過，我認為這很好。從歷史上看，我們確實大幅減少了租賃機隊，然後我們又緩慢地將其恢復過來。我認為在很多方面我都錯過了很多租金上漲的機會，甚至有客戶在上漲，而我們卻沒有車輛。

So we are hanging on to these vehicles and allow utilization field maybe a few percentage points lower than it would otherwise be as we wait for this upturn to come because we want to make sure we have the vehicles to make that happen. And it gives us an opportunity to really leverage and get more earnings as the upturns comes.

因此，我們將繼續保留這些車輛，並在等待經濟好轉時允許利用率降低幾個百分點，因為我們希望確保我們擁有足夠的車輛來實現這一目標。當經濟好轉時，它給了我們一個真正發揮槓桿作用並獲得更多收益的機會。

So you're making a good point on the utilization level. But again, that's purposeful and really just preparing us for the upturn and giving us opportunity to really leverage those units and get some additional earnings as we come up and take care of more customers. I'll let Tom give you some color on selectcare.

所以你在利用率層面提出了很好的觀點。但同樣，這是有目的的，實際上只是讓我們為經濟好轉做好準備，讓我們有機會真正利用這些部門，並在我們服務更多客戶時獲得一些額外收入。我會讓湯姆給你一些關於 selectcare 的解釋。

And maybe just one other point on the rental fleet, we are down 7,000 units from the peak rental fleet from two years ago. So we have brought that fleet down quite a bit. But like Robert said, we do want to have fleet available for when that inflection point happens in the demand comes back. So we want to take advantage of that. Obviously, also they'll happen in 2025.

也許只是租賃車隊的另一點，與兩年前的峰值租賃車隊相比，我們減少了 7,000 輛。所以我們已經讓那支艦隊下降了不少。但正如羅伯特所說，我們確實希望在需求回升時出現轉折點時擁有可用的車隊。所以我們想利用這一點。顯然，它們也會在 2025 年發生。

On the selectcare fleet, this question came up last quarter as well. And I think we've seen this trend all year. The first point I'll make is that margins are actually up sequentially and up year-over-year. So I wanted to make that point. There's a subset of the selectcare fleet that is very low revenue, very low margin, and that's what we're seeing come out of the fleet. We've seen that for two quarters.

在 selectcare 車隊中，這個問題在上個季度也出現了。我認為我們全年都看到了這種趨勢。我要指出的第一點是，利潤率實際上是連續上升的，並且逐年上升。所以我想強調這一點。精選護理車隊的部分收入非常低，利潤率也非常低，這就是我們所看到的。我們已經看到這種情況兩個季度了。

And I would tell you that we're expecting that to happen again in Q4. So don't be surprised by that. But I would just tell you that the units that are coming out are very low impact, low revenue, low margin.

我想告訴你，我們預計這種情況會在第四季再次發生。所以不要對此感到驚訝。但我只想告訴你，即將推出的產品影響非常低，收入低，利潤率低。

Okay. Thank you. That's my question.

好的。謝謝。這就是我的問題。

Thanks, Jeff.

謝謝，傑夫。

Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

斯科特集團，沃爾夫研究。

Hey, thanks. Good morning. So Robert, you're talking about earnings inflecting back positive in Q4. And I'm wondering if you could talk maybe about the puts and takes heading into 2025, right? I guess your guidance is mid-teens It's kind of earnings growth in Q4.

嘿，謝謝。早安.羅伯特，你說的是第四季獲利轉正。我想知道您是否可以談談 2025 年的看漲期權和看跌期權，對吧？我猜你的指導是十幾歲左右，這是第四季度的獲利成長。

Is that -- it's early, but is that the right sort of a framework to be thinking about for '25? Or is there some thought that, hey, we're exiting with less contractual growth, and so maybe that becomes a little harder in '25? Help us think about the puts and takes.

雖然現在還為時過早，但這是 25 世紀值得考慮的正確框架嗎？或者是否有人認為，嘿，我們退出時合約增長較少，所以也許這在 25 年會變得有點困難？幫助我們思考投入和獲取。

Yeah. I think, again, it's early. So we're sitting here in October with a looming presidential election, a lot of uncertainty. And were at the tail end of this long freight downturn. So we got those two things are kind of dealing with. But generally, I would tell you that you should expect earnings growth from our contractual businesses. As we had this year, we should continue to have earnings growth from our contractual businesses.

是的。我想，現在還早。因此，十月我們坐在這裡，總統選舉迫在眉睫，存在著許多不確定性。並且正處於長期貨運低迷的尾聲。所以我們要處理這兩件事。但總的來說，我會告訴你，你應該期待我們的合約業務的獲利成長。正如今年一樣，我們的合約業務收入應該會繼續成長。

First and foremost, from our initiatives, right? Lease pricing, we already talked about maintenance cost initiatives. The acquisition synergies for Cardinal, that integration is on track. So those are the three primary initiatives that will help earnings growth from the contractual business, along with some growth.

首先也是最重要的，來自我們的倡議，對嗎？租賃定價，我們已經討論過維護成本措施。Cardinal 的收購協同效應表明，整合已步入正軌。因此，這三項主要舉措將有助於合約業務的收入成長以及一些成長。

First part of the year, organic growth in the contractual business maybe a bit muted because of what we're seeing in sales right now. Uncertainty around customers wanting to sign anything and especially on the lease and dedicated side, just state, I know oversupply vehicles currently in the market versus the the freight that's moving.

今年上半年，由於我們目前看到的銷售情況，合約業務的自然成長可能有點溫和。想要簽署任何協議的客戶存在不確定性，尤其是在租賃和專用方面，我只是說，我知道目前市場上的車輛供應過剩，而與正在運輸的貨運相比。

But contractual earnings should be up next year, clearly. From a transactional standpoint and based on where we are in the freight cycle today, I think it's reasonable to expect there will be of a cycle upturn next year. The question is when? If it happens early in the year, I would expect the transactional businesses to create some meaningful tailwind in earnings.

但顯然，明年的合約收益應該會增加。從交易的角度來看，並根據我們今天在貨運週期中所處的位置，我認為可以合理地預期明年將會出現週期好轉。問題是什麼時候？如果這種情況發生在今年年初，我預計交易業務將為盈利帶來一些有意義的推動力。

If it happens late in the year, probably still some tailwind up, but not as impactful, I would say, maybe a year over year. Also depends on the magnitude of the freight cycle recovery because that can vary also.

如果它發生在今年晚些時候，可能還會有一些順風車，但我想說，也許一年比一年有影響力。也取決於貨運週期恢復的幅度，因為這也可能有所不同。

So as you should again expect earnings growth and the contractual businesses, again the transactional businesses' earnings growth, most likely the magnitude of which is dependent on when the earnings -- I'm sorry, one of the freight cycle returns. But again, this year, we are going to look, we're looking at $12 a share and what was likely a trough freight market.

因此，正如您應該再次預期盈利增長和合約業務、交易業務的盈利增長一樣，其幅度很可能取決於盈利何時返回——對不起，貨運週期之一。但今年，我們將再次考慮每股 12 美元，貨運市場可能處於低谷。

So it should again, put it in perspective. I think you look at this quarter, we're generally in line with what we have said prior quarter, which was in a soft or no recovery scenario, we would be sort of towards the bottom end of the range. And when you when you adjust for tax, that's kind of where we came in. Full year same thing.

所以應該再次正確地看待它。我認為，看看本季度，我們總體上與我們在上一季所說的一致，即處於軟復甦或無復甦的情況下，我們將接近該範圍的底部。當你調整稅收時，這就是我們進來的地方。全年都一樣。

We're actually coming in the midpoint of what we said at the beginning of the year, even though there was no recovery and that was in light of rental even be in a little bit tougher. Used Vehicles came in a little better and then overhead, we managed overhead cost more to get us more into the midpoint of the rate.

實際上，我們正​​處於年初所說的中期，儘管沒有復甦，而且考慮到租金甚至會更加困難。二手車的表現稍好一些，然後是管理費用，我們管理了更多的管理費用，以使我們的費用達到中點。

So we're really happy with where we are. Return on equity is at 16% to 16.5%, which is exactly where we should be. And based on our modeling and our forecast for this point in the freight cycle. And again, we expect that to all start to come up as the freight environment improves. And as we said on an Investor Day, get to that low 20s level over the cycle for ROE -- from an ROE perspective.

所以我們對我們現在的處境非常滿意。股本回報率為16%至16.5%，這正是我們應該達到的水平。基於我們對貨運週期中這一點的建模和預測。同樣，我們預計隨著貨運環境的改善，這一切都會開始出現。正如我們在投資者日所說，從股本回報率的角度來看，股本回報率在整個週期內達到 20 多歲的低水平。

Okay. That's helpful. If I can just clarify one last thing. The slide with the tractor residual index, it's now sort of within those two red sort of bars. What should that mean for gains on sales going forward?

好的。這很有幫助。如果我能澄清最後一件事的話。帶有拖拉機剩餘指數的幻燈片現在位於這兩個紅色條形內。這對於未來的銷售成長意味著什麼？

So they would have to come down on that slide. It has to come down another 15% tractor prices to get to the bottom end, where you'd have no gains, if you will on tractors. But again, what it means is that we still continue to have gains certainly through the middle of the year of next year based on that lower end of that residual value.

所以他們必須從那張投影片上下來。拖拉機價格必須再下降 15% 才能達到最低點，如果你願意購買拖拉機，你就不會獲得任何收益。但同樣，這意味著，根據殘值的下限，到明年年中我們仍然會繼續獲得收益。

Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you, guys.

好的。欣賞它。謝謝你們，夥計們。

Brian Ossenbeck, JPMorgan.

布萊恩‧奧森貝克，摩根大通。

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Maybe you can just give us a rundown of what you're seeing in the competitive landscape across lease dedicated and SES is a broad range, but some thoughts there would be helpful considering it is a lower for longer environment. So wanted to see if you're seeing any competition on the fringes that you wouldn't expect sort of at this part of the cycle?

嘿，早上好，感謝您提出問題。也許您可以向我們簡要介紹您在租賃專用和 SES 的競爭格局中所看到的情況，範圍很廣，但考慮到它對長期環境而言較低，一些想法會有所幫助。那麼想看看您是否在周期的這一部分看到了任何您意想不到的邊緣競爭？

I'll let each of the presidents talk about their business. I think generally, I remember it's contractual businesses that we're dealing with here. So this is the incremental new opportunities that we're talking about. But I'll let -- Tom, why don't you start with lease?

我會讓各位總統談談他們的事情。我想一般來說，我記得我們在這裡處理的是合約業務。這就是我們正在談論的增量新機會。但我會讓——湯姆，為什麼不從租賃開始呢？

Yeah. On the lease side, I would say from a competitor perspective, maybe the one thing that's a little bit different in a down environment as the year competing more with redeployable assets, if you will, as opposed to new. So you see more competition on those existing units, maybe a little bit of price pressure there. But when we are competing against new and we're deploying new capital.

是的。在租賃方面，我想說，從競爭對手的角度來看，也許在經濟低迷的環境下，有一點有所不同，因為今年更多的是與可重新部署的資產競爭，而不是新的資產。因此，您會看到現有設備的競爭更加激烈，可能會出現一些價格壓力。但當我們與新資本競爭時，我們正在部署新資本。

There's discipline around getting the returns on that new capital spend. Other than that, it's kind of what you might expect in a low environment like that. So it's a tight competing on deal. There's not as many deals on the table as you would normally see in a good environment. Other than that, it's kind of what you would expect.

在獲得新資本支出的回報方面存在著紀律。除此之外，在這樣的低環境下，這可能是你所期望的。因此，這是一場激烈的交易競爭。桌面上的交易並不像在良好環境下通常看到的那麼多。除此之外，這就是您所期望的。

As a reminder, at least we don't -- we typically don't buy a truck until we have a signed lease. So that discipline shared, I think, by most competitors really helps keep the pricing discipline of the leases not having to move inventory that you're sitting on. Steve, do you want to talk about dedicated and supply chain?

提醒一下，至少我們不會——我們通常在簽訂租約之前不會購買卡車。因此，我認為，大多數競爭對手所共享的紀律確實有助於保持租賃的定價紀律，而不必移動您所持有的庫存。史蒂夫，你想談談專用和供應鏈嗎？

Yeah. Brian, on supply chain, you're right. I think it's the same set of competitors. Rate is holding consistent. So I think it's really a solution base opportunity there. So I think as we feel pretty good about supply chain and dedicated, our biggest competition right now is a spot market.

是的。布萊恩，在供應鏈方面，你是對的。我認為這是同一組競爭對手。利率保持一致。所以我認為這確實是一個解決方案基礎的機會。因此，我認為，由於我們對供應鏈感覺良好並且專注，所以我們目前最大的競爭是現貨市場。

So as that bounces back and the driver market tightens, as Robert, John said earlier, that's going to yield benefits for us as we go forward. And I think we -- our continued collaboration with Tom's team on the private fleet conversion that continues to be the majority of our sales in dedicated. So I think we're positioned well.

因此，正如羅伯特·約翰早些時候所說，隨著市場的反彈和司機市場的收緊，這將為我們的前進帶來好處。我認為我們與湯姆的團隊在私人車隊改裝方面繼續合作，這仍然是我們專用銷售的大部分。所以我認為我們的定位很好。

Okay. Thanks for that. Just quick follow-up. In terms of the hurricanes that disrupted the freight market and unfortunately caused a lot of damage. Are you seeing any impact on, I guess, current operations and maybe potential pickup as the recovery efforts start to gain some traction here and towards there? Would have any impact on, I guess, current operations and then potentially in the fourth quarter for maybe some rental? Thanks.

好的。謝謝你。只是快速跟進。就颶風而言，擾亂了貨運市場並不幸造成了巨大的損失。我想，隨著恢復工作開始在這裡和那裡獲得一些牽引力，您是否看到對當前營運的任何影響，以及可能的潛在回升？我想，這會對目前的營運產生任何影響，然後可能會對第四季的租金產生影響嗎？謝謝。

Yeah. Unfortunately, it's becoming a core competency of Ryder dealing with these hurricanes of being headquartered down here in Florida . But our team once again did a great job of responding to these hurricanes. And clearly, our thoughts and prayers go out to all the folks have been impacted.

是的。不幸的是，它正在成為總部位於佛羅裡達州的萊德應對這些颶風的核心能力。但我們的團隊在應對這些颶風方面再次表現出色。顯然，我們向所有受到影響的人們表達我們的想法和祈禱。

Our employers were all safe and accounted for number one. Number two, all our operations are back up and running. So we're taking care of our customers and got those operations going. In terms of some impacts in Q4, I think, Tom, you want to give a little bit on the rental side, if we're seeing anything regionally?

我們的雇主都安全，佔第一。第二，我們所有的營運都已恢復並正常運作。因此，我們正在照顧我們的客戶並讓這些業務繼續進行。就第四季度的一些影響而言，湯姆，我認為您想在租賃方面做出一些貢獻，如果我們在區域範圍內看到什麼？

Yeah. I would just add that our -- as we prepare for hurricanes, we kind of setup of fuel deliveries and temporary power supply just outside of the corn. So we like Robert said, we unfortunately got very, very good at this. So we were up and running within 48 hours with fuel drops, power, all of our locations have power. Luckily, we had a relatively minimal damage at our locations.

是的。我想補充一點，當我們為颶風做準備時，我們在玉米外設置了燃料傳輸和臨時電力供應。所以我們就像羅伯特說的那樣，不幸的是我們在這方面做得非常非常好。因此，我們在 48 小時內啟動並運行，並提供燃油和電力，我們所有的地點都有電力。幸運的是，我們所在地的損失相對較小。

And I would say, we did see from our rental utilization perspective, a small uptick in utilization and a couple of business units in Florida, Georgia, and in the Carolinas. But I wouldn't say it had a meaning impact and utilization when you look at it holistically, just I'm kind of isolated in those couple of markets as we support the customers and the relief efforts to support those communities that were impacted by the storms.

我想說，從租金利用率的角度來看，我們確實看到利用率小幅上升，並且在佛羅裡達州、喬治亞州和卡羅來納州有幾個業務部門。但當你從整體上看時，我不會說它具有有意義的影響和利用，只是我在這兩個市場中有點孤立，因為我們支持客戶以及支持那些受疫情影響的社區的救援工作。 。

Okay. Thanks very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Thanks, Brian.

謝謝，布萊恩。

Daniel Imbro, Stephens.

丹尼爾·因布羅，史蒂芬斯。

Yeah. Hey, good morning, everybody. Maybe following on the tractor price backdrop discussion, you guys are having. So it's sounds like you would still have gains, but maybe the gains are lower. And I think the release noted lower volume and pricing headwinds in the quarter, but they will view the inventories declining. I guess when we look forward, would you expect the gains on those sales to continue to sequentially decline in the coming quarters?

是的。嘿，大家早安。也許在拖拉機價格背景討論之後，你們正在進行。所以聽起來你仍然會有收益，但收益可能會更低。我認為新聞稿指出了本季銷量和定價方面的不利因素，但他們將認為庫存下降。我想當我們展望未來時，您是否預期這些銷售收益在未來幾季將繼續下降？

And then related to the cash flow, I don't think your free cash flow guidance changed and the proceeds from asset sales were maintained despite lower volume of sales and lower pricing on the sales. Can you help us bridge the gap on how the free cash flow guidance stayed the same, given that backdrop on the asset sales?

然後與現金流相關，我認為您的自由現金流指引沒有改變，儘管銷售量下降且銷售定價較低，但資產銷售的收益仍得以維持。在資產出售的背景下，您能否幫助我們彌合自由現金流指引如何保持不變的差距？

Yeah. I think from a gain standpoint, you should see it in a kind of hover around where it's been. It's been in that I think it was $15 million this quarter, it was $20 million couple of quarters ago, somewhere in that range, I think, as we go into Q4, assuming pricing continues to sort of looked for a bottom, which is kind of what we've been saying, it's still down. If you take out some of the anomalies, it's been down sequentially now single digit for the last three quarters.

是的。我認為從收益的角度來看，你應該會看到它在原來的位置上徘徊。我認為本季為 1500 萬美元，幾個季度前為 2000 萬美元，在這個範圍內的某個地方，我認為，當我們進入第四季度時，假設定價繼續尋找底部，這很好我們一直在說的，它仍然在下降。如果剔除一些異常情況，過去三個季度的數字已連續下降個位數。

So looking for a bottom, not quite there yet. But I think if you look at some of the forecasts from some of the groups that follow this, they're expecting some type of an uptick as we get into 2025 despite measure of the amount of freight moving a number of trucks on the road. So hopefully, that's coming in early and we get better early. But as you go into this quarter, I think it's more of what we've seen the last couple of quarters. And in terms of free cash flow --

因此正在尋找底部，但尚未完全到達底部。但我認為，如果你看一些團體的一些預測，你會發現，儘管對道路上運輸的大量卡車的貨運量進行了衡量，但隨著進入 2025 年，他們預計會出現某種程度的上升。所以希望這一切能早點到來，我們也能早點好起來。但當你進入本季時，我認為這更多的是我們在過去幾季所看到的情況。就自由現金流而言--

Yeah, Daniel, this is John. Just the free cash flow, as you heard from Robert, the movements sequentially, actually truck pricing was a little bit better with tractors come in a little bit lower sequentially. The volumes were a little bit softer. That was probably more the impact, I would say, this quarter on the cash flow. But within the margin of our $100 million range that had given back in Q2. As a result, we didn't think we needed to adjust for that because we do see kind of market conditions kind of bouncing along the bottom at this point in time.

是的，丹尼爾，這是約翰。只是自由現金流，正如您從羅伯特那裡聽到的那樣，連續的變動，實際上卡車的定價要好一些，而拖拉機的價格連續要低一些。音量稍微柔和一些。我想說，這可能是本季對​​現金流的更大影響。但在我們第二季回落的 1 億美元範圍內。因此，我們認為不需要對此進行調整，因為我們確實看到此時市場狀況正在底部反彈。

I appreciate that color.

我很欣賞那種顏色。

Thanks, Dave.

謝謝，戴夫。

At this time, there are no additional questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. Robert Sanchez for closing remarks.

目前，沒有其他問題。我想將電話轉回給羅伯特·桑切斯先生做總結發言。

Okay. Thank you all for your interest and questions, and we'll see on the road soon.

好的。感謝大家的興趣和提問，我們很快就會見到。

This does concludes today's conference. We thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。