使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.
女士們,先生們,謝謝你們的支持。
Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call.
歡迎參加 Qualcomm 2018 財年第二季度財報電話會議。
(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 25, 2018.
(操作員說明)作為提醒,本次會議正在錄製,2018 年 4 月 25 日。
The playback number for today's call is (855) 859-2056.
今天電話的播放號碼是(855)859-2056。
International callers, please dial (404) 537-3406.
國際呼叫者,請撥打 (404) 537-3406。
The playback reservation number is 39466125.
播放預約號為 39466125。
I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations.
我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 John Sinnott。
Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.
辛諾特先生,請繼續。
John Sinnott - VP of IR
John Sinnott - VP of IR
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝大家,大家下午好。
Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis.
今天的電話會議將包括 Steve Mollenkopf 和 George Davis 準備好的講話。
In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session.
此外,克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格將參加問答環節。
You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website.
您可以在我們的投資者關係網站上訪問我們的收益發布和本次電話會議隨附的幻燈片演示。
In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today.
此外,本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網絡直播,今天晚些時候將在我們的網站上提供重播。
During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website.
在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用法規 G 中定義的非 GAAP 財務指標,您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的對賬。
We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results.
我們還將做出前瞻性陳述,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務結果的預測和估計。
Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements.
實際事件或結果可能與我們前瞻性陳述中的預測存在重大差異。
Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.
請參閱我們的 SEC 文件,包括我們最近的 10-Q,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述大不相同的重要因素。
And now the comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.
現在是高通首席執行官史蒂夫莫倫科夫的評論。
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝你,約翰,大家下午好。
Our fiscal second quarter results were strong with non-GAAP earnings per share 14% above the midpoint of our guidance range driven by continued strong performance in QCT and cost management throughout the company, which was balanced by some headwinds from weaker industry conditions and litigation costs in QTL.
我們的第二財季業績強勁,非 GAAP 每股收益比我們指導範圍的中點高出 14%,這是由於整個公司 QCT 和成本管理的持續強勁表現,這被行業條件疲軟和訴訟成本帶來的一些不利因素所平衡在 QTL 中。
We returned approximately $1 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $845 million of dividends paid and $200 million in stock repurchases.
我們在本季度向股東返還了大約 10 億美元,其中包括 8.45 億美元的股息支付和 2 億美元的股票回購。
We also announced a 9% increase to our quarterly dividend rate in the quarter, effective for dividends starting in the June quarter.
我們還宣布將本季度的季度股息率提高 9%,從六月季度開始的股息生效。
Looking ahead, we see some near-term headwinds, but our longer-term outlook is consistent with our fiscal 2019 targets that we shared with you in January.
展望未來,我們看到一些近期不利因素,但我們的長期前景與我們在 1 月份與您分享的 2019 財年目標一致。
Our fiscal third quarter guidance reflects some softness in global 3G/4G device shipments, particularly in China, the impact of some changes we have made to our licensing framework as well as the impact of increased litigation expenses in our licensing business.
我們的第三財季指引反映了全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量(尤其是在中國)的疲軟、我們對許可框架所做的一些更改的影響以及我們許可業務中訴訟費用增加的影響。
QCT continues to execute well with strong performance in China and growth in adjacent areas, offset by some impact of lower modem shipments.
QCT 在中國的強勁表現和鄰近地區的增長繼續表現良好,但被調製解調器出貨量下降的一些影響所抵消。
For calendar 2018, we are adjusting our growth estimate for global 3G/4G device shipments lower.
對於 2018 年日曆,我們正在下調對全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量的增長預測。
However, handset selling prices continue to be stronger than expected, which continues to be a favorable trend.
然而,手機售價繼續強於預期,這仍然是一個有利的趨勢。
As we navigate the short-term industry weakness in QCT, we continue to execute well on that business and our market share remains strong.
在我們應對 QCT 的短期行業疲軟時,我們繼續在該業務上表現良好,我們的市場份額仍然強勁。
The Snapdragon 845 platform, our latest premium tier offering, has achieved substantial commercial success with over 100 design wins already, including launched flagship devices by Samsung, Sony, ASUS and Xiaomi.
驍龍 845 平台是我們最新的高端產品,已經取得了巨大的商業成功,已經贏得了 100 多項設計大獎,包括三星、索尼、華碩和小米推出的旗艦設備。
Our modem leadership continues.
我們的現代領導地位仍在繼續。
We recently announced our X24 LTE modem, which is the world's first 2-gigabit 4G modem and the world's first announced 7-nanometer chip.
我們最近發布了我們的 X24 LTE 調製解調器,它是世界上第一個 2 千兆位 4G 調製解調器和世界上第一個宣布的 7 納米芯片。
As the market transitions to 5G, the engineering challenges embedded in the 5G opportunity play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and the focused investment we have made over the last several years.
隨著市場向 5G 過渡,5G 機遇中蘊含的工程挑戰直接影響了高通公司的優勢以及我們在過去幾年中所做的集中投資。
We are leading the industry to 5G, and we are pleased to see the strength of our road map, helping to enable the upcoming commercial launches of 5G networks and devices, including the 18 network operators and 20 manufacturers that have selected our X50 5G modem for trials and 5G devices.
我們正在引領行業走向 5G,我們很高興看到我們的路線圖的實力,幫助實現即將推出的 5G 網絡和設備的商業發布,包括選擇我們的 X50 5G 調製解調器的 18 家網絡運營商和 20 家製造商試驗和 5G 設備。
We also recently announced the world's first 5G module solutions, which include highly integrated, turnkey 5G modules, including application processor, baseband, transceiver, memory, power management, RF front end, antennas and other components that are designed to expand the ecosystem and accelerate 5G deployments.
我們最近還宣布了全球首個 5G 模塊解決方案,其中包括高度集成的交鑰匙 5G 模塊,包括應用處理器、基帶、收發器、內存、電源管理、射頻前端、天線和其他組件,旨在擴展生態系統和加速5G 部署。
Our products continue to be differentiated driven by our unique systems-based approach to the complexities across wireless networks and devices.
通過我們獨特的基於系統的方法來解決無線網絡和設備的複雜性,我們的產品繼續保持差異化。
We are delivering industry-leading technologies and performance, which translate into a more efficient use of spectrum for operators and a lower bill of materials for device makers, delivering attractive economics for our partners and higher device content share for us.
我們正在提供行業領先的技術和性能,這將轉化為運營商更有效地使用頻譜並為設備製造商提供更低的材料清單,為我們的合作夥伴帶來具有吸引力的經濟性,並為我們帶來更高的設備內容份額。
In auto, our backlog of awarded design wins has increased to $4 billion as automakers and Tier 1 suppliers begin gearing up for 5G-enabled cars in 2021.
在汽車領域,隨著汽車製造商和一級供應商在 2021 年開始為支持 5G 的汽車做準備,我們贏得的設計獎積壓已增加到 40 億美元。
We continue to be the supplier of choice given our decades of wireless technology leadership.
鑑於我們數十年的無線技術領先地位,我們將繼續成為首選供應商。
In infotainment, we have designs with 14 of the top 25 global automaker brands, including Audi, BYD, Geely, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and Volkswagen.
在信息娛樂方面,我們與全球 25 大汽車製造商品牌中的 14 個品牌合作,包括奧迪、比亞迪、吉利、本田、捷豹路虎、PSA 和大眾。
In networking, we see favorable trends with continued share gains and growth in the WiFi infrastructure opportunity across enterprise, retail and carriers.
在網絡方面,我們看到了有利的趨勢,企業、零售和運營商的 WiFi 基礎設施機會的份額持續增長和增長。
And we launched the world's first draft 802.11ax carrier gateway, which started shipping in March in KDDI and NEC.
我們推出了世界上第一個草案 802.11ax 運營商網關,於 3 月在 KDDI 和 NEC 開始發貨。
In summary, we are well positioned to grow in our adjacent opportunities of auto, IoT, networking and compute as we leverage our core competencies to gain share in these emerging areas.
總之,隨著我們利用我們的核心競爭力在這些新興領域獲得份額,我們有能力在汽車、物聯網、網絡和計算等相鄰機會中增長。
In November 2017, we announced a global framework for licensing Qualcomm's standard essential patents at an effective rate of 3.25%, covering multimode devices inclusive of 5G Release 15 standards.
2017 年 11 月,我們公佈了高通標準必要專利許可的全球框架,有效率為 3.25%,涵蓋包括 5G Release 15 標准在內的多模設備。
We also recently set the selling price cap for a handset at $400 for all licensees.
我們最近還將所有被許可人的手機售價上限設置為 400 美元。
This global rate is consistent with the SEP-only licensing program we successfully established in China since 2015, which has resulted in over 120 agreements for 3G and 4G devices.
這一全球費率與我們自 2015 年以來在中國成功建立的僅限標準必要專利許可計劃一致,該計劃已達成 120 多項 3G 和 4G 設備協議。
We are now in negotiations for license extensions under the new program announced in November that include rights to our 5G patents and expect to conclude a number of agreements in Q3.
我們現在正在就 11 月宣布的新計劃下的許可延期進行談判,其中包括我們的 5G 專利權,並預計將在第三季度達成多項協議。
The transparency of our worldwide SEP-only licensing program, including announced rates for 5G Release 15, facilitates the effort to conclude agreements and extensions in 2018 and early 2019, providing for a seamless transition for the launch of 5G devices in 2019.
我們全球僅限 SEP 許可計劃的透明度,包括公佈的 5G 第 15 版費率,有助於在 2018 年和 2019 年初締結協議和延期,為 2019 年推出的 5G 設備提供無縫過渡。
Longer term, we believe this SEP-only licensing program enhances the stability of QTL with extended contract terms that incorporate 5G pricing.
從長遠來看,我們相信這個僅限 SEP 的許可計劃通過包含 5G 定價的擴展合同條款增強了 QTL 的穩定性。
While execution of new agreements with existing handset licensees will create some near-term revenue impact in QTL, they are consistent with our assumptions that we set for fiscal year 2019 EPS targets.
雖然與現有手機被許可方執行新協議將對 QTL 產生一些近期收入影響,但它們與我們為 2019 財年每股收益目標設定的假設一致。
Looking ahead, we are focused on executing on our strategy to deliver our fiscal 2019 earnings per share targets.
展望未來,我們將專注於執行我們的戰略,以實現我們的 2019 財年每股收益目標。
We have identified a number of specific strategic areas as part of that plan, and we will be updating you on our ongoing progress.
作為該計劃的一部分,我們已經確定了一些具體的戰略領域,我們將向您通報我們正在進行的進展。
First, we continue to focus on closing the NXP transaction.
首先,我們繼續專注於完成 NXP 交易。
As we announced last week, at the request of MOFCOM, we withdrew and refiled our application for Chinese regulatory approval.
正如我們上周宣布的那樣,應商務部的要求,我們撤回並重新提交了中國監管部門批准的申請。
We also agreed with NXP to extend the purchase agreement to July 25.
我們還與恩智浦達成協議,將購買協議延長至 7 月 25 日。
While we continue to work closely with the Chinese regulators and remain optimistic about getting the necessary regulatory approvals there, it is clear that the geopolitical environment and trade actions are having an impact on the approval process.
雖然我們繼續與中國監管機構密切合作,並對獲得必要的監管批准保持樂觀,但很明顯,地緣政治環境和貿易行動正在對批准過程產生影響。
However, we continue to expect to ultimately receive approval in China, as we have in each of the other eight jurisdictions that have conducted a review, and we remain committed to the transaction.
然而,我們仍然期望最終在中國獲得批准,就像我們在其他八個進行過審查的司法管轄區中的每一個一樣,我們仍然致力於交易。
Second, we continue to work to resolve our two licensing disputes.
其次,我們繼續努力解決我們的兩個許可糾紛。
Apple initiated legal proceedings against Qualcomm more than a year ago.
一年多前,蘋果對高通提起了法律訴訟。
We have vigorously defended our position.
我們有力地捍衛了我們的立場。
The legal process continues to move forward along the time lines we previously discussed and should converge toward multiple important milestones later this year.
法律程序繼續按照我們之前討論的時間線向前推進,並應在今年晚些時候向多個重要里程碑收斂。
In addition, our breach of contract case against Apple's contract manufacturers and our claim against Apple for interfering with those contracts is on schedule to be prepared for trial setting by the end of the year.
此外,我們針對蘋果的合同製造商的違約案件以及我們對蘋果乾涉這些合同的索賠,都將按計劃在年底前準備開庭審理。
As the legal cases progress, we continue to -- our direct engagement with Apple and prefer to ultimately reach a negotiated settlement.
隨著法律案件的進展,我們將繼續與 Apple 直接接觸,並希望最終達成協商解決方案。
Regarding our other dispute with a large licensee, we are in discussions toward a negotiated resolution, and those discussions are very active.
關於我們與大型被許可人的其他爭議,我們正在討論通過談判解決,這些討論非常活躍。
Third, we are progressing on our previously announced plan to reduce our spending by $1 billion.
第三,我們正在推進我們之前宣布的將支出減少 10 億美元的計劃。
We have made good progress on this commitment, taking steps to reduce spending across SG&A and R&D.
我們在這一承諾方面取得了良好進展,採取措施減少 SG&A 和研發方面的支出。
We are also focused on spending reductions in our noncore product areas.
我們還專注於減少非核心產品領域的支出。
Fourth, we are executing our product road map and continue to make the investments necessary to maintain our technology and product leadership, lead the industry to 5G and grow our adjacent areas across the RF front end, automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute.
第四,我們正在執行我們的產品路線圖,並繼續進行必要的投資,以保持我們的技術和產品領先地位,引領行業走向 5G,並在射頻前端、汽車、物聯網、網絡和移動計算等領域發展我們的相鄰領域。
In closing, we are pleased to report strong results this quarter, and we remain 100% focused on delivering on our fiscal 2019 commitments and creating that value for stockholders.
最後,我們很高興報告本季度的強勁業績,我們仍然 100% 專注於兌現我們 2019 財年的承諾並為股東創造價值。
We look forward to continue to update you on our progress.
我們期待繼續向您通報我們的進展。
I now turn the call over to George.
我現在把電話轉給喬治。
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone.
謝謝史蒂夫,大家下午好。
Our fiscal second quarter results were above the midpoint of our guidance with revenues of $5.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 per share, $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance.
我們的第二財季業績高於我們指引的中點,收入為 53 億美元,非公認會計準則每股收益為每股 0.80 美元,比我們的指引中點高 0.10 美元。
The non-GAAP EPS outperformance in the quarter was driven by higher MSM shipments, improved gross margins in QCT, a more favorable tax rate from lower domestic versus foreign earnings and lower operating expenses.
本季度非 GAAP 每股收益表現優異的原因是 MSM 出貨量增加、QCT 毛利率提高、國內收益與國外收益下降帶來的更有利的稅率以及運營費用降低。
In QCT, MSM chip shipments were 187 million, towards the high end of our guidance range.
在 QCT,MSM 芯片出貨量為 1.87 億顆,接近我們指導範圍的高端。
QCT revenues were $3.9 billion, in line with expectations.
QCT 收入為 39 億美元,符合預期。
As we expected, QCT results this quarter reflected the normal seasonal effects of lower demand typical in the calendar first quarter, a reduction in orders sequentially from a large modem customer and reduced demand from customers in China as they reduced inventory balances.
正如我們預期的那樣,本季度的 QCT 業績反映了日曆第一季度典型需求下降的正常季節性影響、大型現代客戶的訂單連續減少以及中國客戶減少庫存餘額導致的需求減少。
As a result, we saw handset inventory balances in China come down in line with long-term trends.
因此,我們看到中國的手機庫存餘額符合長期趨勢。
While we remain conservative on demand for the second half of the year, we think the lower level of inventory is a very healthy development.
雖然我們對下半年的需求保持保守,但我們認為較低的庫存水平是一個非常健康的發展。
QCT's earnings before tax was up 28% year-over-year, the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.
QCT 的稅前利潤同比增長 28%,連續第八個季度實現同比增長。
QCT EBT margin was 16%, above the high end of our guidance range, reflecting stronger-than-expected gross margins in mobile, primarily in product cost benefits, including some discrete benefits related to conclusion of negotiations with a supplier.
QCT EBT 利潤率為 16%,高於我們指導範圍的高端,反映出移動業務的毛利率強於預期,主要體現在產品成本收益方面,包括與供應商談判結束相關的一些離散收益。
QTL fiscal second quarter revenues were $1.26 billion, slightly above the midpoint of guidance and included a modestly higher amount of out-of-period catch-up than we anticipated, offset by lower-than-expected 3G/4G units reported by licensees for the December quarter, particularly in the emerging regions.
QTL 第二財季收入為 12.6 億美元,略高於指引中點,其中包括略高於我們預期的期外追趕量,但被許可證持有者報告的低於預期的 3G/4G 單元所抵消12 月季度,尤其是在新興地區。
Note that these results exclude royalty revenues on Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute.
請注意,這些結果不包括 Apple 產品和其他有爭議的被許可人的特許權使用費收入。
It is also worth noting that in the December quarter, we continue to see strong year-over-year trends in global 3G/4G handset ASPs across various price levels.
還值得注意的是,在 12 月季度,我們繼續看到全球 3G/4G 手機 ASP 在不同價格水平上的強勁同比趨勢。
We have seen significantly higher run rate spending this year driven by litigation matters related to Apple and the FTC.
由於與 Apple 和 FTC 相關的訴訟事項,我們看到今年的運營支出顯著增加。
In the second fiscal quarter, we spent approximately $125 million on these cases and expect that to ramp further in Q3.
在第二財季,我們在這些案件上花費了大約 1.25 億美元,預計這將在第三季度進一步增加。
Spending is somewhat more heavily weighted in the second half of our fiscal year, in line with broad-based discovery activities and the timing of IP cases globally.
根據廣泛的發現活動和全球知識產權案件的時間安排,我們財政年度下半年的支出比重更大。
We will provide information on our OpEx both with and without excess litigation so that the underlying cost structure changes are more visible.
我們將提供有關我們的運營支出的信息,無論是否存在過度訴訟,以便更明顯地看到潛在的成本結構變化。
QTL earnings before tax was $850 million or 67% of revenues, above the midpoint of expectations or 78% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense.
QTL 稅前收益為 8.5 億美元,佔收入的 67%,高於預期中點,如果根據特別訴訟費用進行調整,則為 78%。
For Qualcomm overall, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased approximately 2% sequentially or down 4% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense.
就高通整體而言,非公認會計原則的研發和 SG&A 總費用環比下降約 2%,如果調整特別訴訟費用,則下降 4%。
We began implementing our $1 billion cost plan that will accelerate in the latter part of the year.
我們開始實施 10 億美元的成本計劃,該計劃將在今年下半年加速。
In Q2, we booked restructuring and related charges under the cost plan of $310 million or $0.18 per share.
在第二季度,我們根據 3.1 億美元或每股 0.18 美元的成本計劃計入了重組和相關費用。
These items were excluded from non-GAAP results.
這些項目被排除在非公認會計原則結果之外。
It is important to note that these initiatives will not impact our strong investment in 5G and our commitment to grow in mobile, RFFE, IoT, automotive, networking and mobile compute.
值得注意的是,這些舉措不會影響我們對 5G 的大力投資以及我們在移動、RFFE、物聯網、汽車、網絡和移動計算領域發展的承諾。
Our non-GAAP effective tax rate during the fiscal second quarter was 4%, favorable relative to our prior guidance due to the catch-up associated with a lower estimated annual effective tax rate on lower domestic versus foreign earnings mix.
我們在第二財季的非公認會計原則有效稅率為 4%,相對於我們之前的指導是有利的,這是由於與較低的國內與國外收益組合的較低估計年度有效稅率相關的追趕。
We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $39.6 billion or $16.5 billion net of outstanding debt.
我們在本季度末的現金和有價證券為 396 億美元,或未償債務淨額為 165 億美元。
Turning to our financial guidance for the fiscal third quarter.
轉向我們對第三財季的財務指導。
We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.75 per share.
我們估計收入約為 48 億美元至 56 億美元,非公認會計準則每股收益約為每股 0.65 美元至 0.75 美元。
Our guidance incorporates a relatively balanced mix of positive and negative factors in the quarter with tax benefits related to potential restructuring opportunities under tax reform offsetting the impacts of initial plan changes in our licensing program, higher litigation cost in the quarter and approximately $0.03 of expected ZTE order effects across the company.
我們的指導包含了本季度相對平衡的正面和負面因素組合,以及與稅改下潛在重組機會相關的稅收優惠,抵消了我們許可計劃中初始計劃變更的影響、本季度更高的訴訟成本以及預計中興通訊約 0.03 美元整個公司的訂單效應。
In QTL, we're expecting QTL fiscal third quarter revenues of approximately $950 million at the midpoint, down sequentially approximately $300 million.
在 QTL 中,我們預計 QTL 第三財季中點收入約為 9.5 億美元,環比下降約 3 億美元。
This outlook reflects 3 primary issues.
這一前景反映了三個主要問題。
First, about half of the sequential decline reflects the combined impact of a seasonally low quarter, along with generally weak industry conditions, along with approximately $40 million in higher onetime catch-up payments in Q2 relative to our outlook for Q3.
首先,環比下降的大約一半反映了季節性低季度的綜合影響,以及普遍疲軟的行業狀況,以及與我們對第三季度的展望相比,第二季度的一次性追加支付增加了約 4000 萬美元。
Second, we have begun to recognize this quarter the impact related to the recent amendments to our Samsung licensing agreement, including the effects of the expanded cross-license agreement.
其次,我們已經開始認識到本季度與三星許可協議最近修訂相關的影響,包括擴大的交叉許可協議的影響。
And third, we are seeing the initial run rate impact of the licensing SEP-only framework, including 5G, that Steve described earlier.
第三,我們看到了 Steve 之前描述的僅許可 SEP 框架(包括 5G)對初始運行率的影響。
Slightly less than half of the sequential impact on revenue is from the changes to the Samsung agreement and other licensing program terms.
對收入的連續影響中略低於一半來自三星協議和其他許可計劃條款的變化。
I should note that we've also implemented a voluntary revised cap in which the maximum net selling price of a handset on which the royalty is based will be capped at $400 per device, down from $500 per device.
我應該指出,我們還實施了一項自願修訂的上限,其中基於版稅的手機的最高淨銷售價格上限為每台設備 400 美元,低於每台設備 500 美元。
This will be broadly implemented in fiscal Q4, and we do not expect a material impact overall.
這將在第四財季廣泛實施,我們預計總體上不會產生重大影響。
We expect QTL EBT margin to be approximately 50% to 54% in the fiscal third quarter, down sequentially at the midpoint on lower revenues and increased litigation cost.
我們預計第三財季 QTL EBT 利潤率約為 50% 至 54%,由於收入下降和訴訟成本增加,環比下降至中點。
Without the extraordinary litigation expenses, QTL EBT margin expectations would be approximately 65% to 69%.
如果沒有特別訴訟費用,QTL EBT 利潤率預期約為 65% 至 69%。
Turning to QCT.
轉向 QCT。
We anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 185 million to 205 million units during the June quarter, higher sequentially at the midpoint on increased demand in China as inventory improved in the last 2 months of the fiscal second quarter.
我們預計 6 月季度 MSM 出貨量約為 1.85 億至 2.05 億台,由於第二財季最後兩個月庫存改善,中國需求增加,因此環比增長。
We expect QCT's fiscal third quarter EBT margin to be approximately 13% to 15%, down sequentially, primarily due to seasonally weaker product mix, including lower thin modem shipments and the absence of the discrete product cost benefit in Q2.
我們預計 QCT 的第三財季 EBT 利潤率約為 13% 至 15%,環比下降,主要是由於季節性疲軟的產品組合,包括較低的薄調製解調器出貨量以及第二季度沒有離散產品成本優勢。
We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be roughly flat to up approximately 2% sequentially, primarily due to increased litigation expenses as we continue to defend our business model, somewhat mitigated by the impacts of our cost efforts.
我們預計第三財季非美國通用會計準則的研發和 SG&A 總費用將大致持平,環比增長約 2%,這主要是由於訴訟費用增加,因為我們繼續捍衛我們的商業模式,而我們的成本努力的影響有所緩解。
Excluding the elevated litigation cost, we estimate that our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses would otherwise be down approximately 1%.
不計訴訟成本上升,我們估計我們的非公認會計準則合併研發和 SG&A 費用將下降約 1%。
Non-GAAP interest expense, net of investment income in the fiscal third quarter, is expected to be roughly flat sequentially.
扣除第三財季投資收入後的非公認會計原則利息費用預計環比基本持平。
Turning to tax matters.
轉向稅務問題。
As a result of the recent tax legislation enacted in the U.S., we anticipate implementing certain restructuring options that will reduce our current year tax rate and have been factored into our fiscal third quarter guidance.
由於美國最近頒布的稅收立法,我們預計將實施某些重組方案,這些方案將降低我們本年度的稅率,並已納入我們第三財季的指導。
As a result, we expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fiscal third quarter to be a benefit of approximately 20% to 25%, which we expect to provide a benefit to non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 per share.
因此,我們預計我們在第三財季的非公認會計原則有效稅率約為 20% 至 25%,我們預計這將為非公認會計原則每股收益 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元帶來好處。
Regarding our 3G/4G device shipment forecast, we are updating our unit estimates for calendar year global device shipments for both 2017 and 2018.
關於我們的 3G/4G 設備出貨量預測,我們正在更新我們對 2017 年和 2018 年日曆年全球設備出貨量的單位估計。
For calendar year 2017, we now estimate approximately 1.755 billion global 3G/4G devices shipped, up approximately 3% year-over-year, at the low end of our prior estimates, primarily due to lengthening replacement rates in North America and China in the fourth calendar quarter.
對於 2017 日曆年,我們現在估計全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量約為 17.55 億部,同比增長約 3%,處於我們先前估計的低端,主要是由於北美和中國在第四季度。
For calendar year 2018, we now estimate approximately 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion global 3G/4G device shipments or growth of approximately 5% year-over-year.
對於 2018 日曆年,我們現在估計全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量約為 18 億至 19 億部,或同比增長約 5%。
This is lower from our prior estimate by 50 million units at the midpoint, reflecting a lower 2017 base as well as reduced demand expected in China.
這比我們先前估計的中點低 5,000 萬台,反映出 2017 年基數較低以及中國的預期需求減少。
Within this population, handset growth is expected to be approximately 3% year-over-year.
在這一人群中,手機的年增長率預計約為 3%。
With respect to global 3G/4G device sales for fiscal 2018, we now expect growth of approximately 10% year-over-year at the midpoint as the reduction in our estimate of global 3G/4G units in the year is expected to be more than offset by strength in ASPs.
關於 2018 財年全球 3G/4G 設備銷售,我們現在預計中點同比增長約 10%,因為我們對今年全球 3G/4G 設備的估計減少預計將超過被平均售價的強勢所抵消。
Within this population, 3G/4G global handset sales are expected to grow a similar percentage in fiscal 2018 driven primarily by strength in handset ASPs year-over-year.
在這一人群中,預計 3G/4G 全球手機銷量在 2018 財年將增長相似的百分比,這主要受手機 ASP 同比增長的推動。
I will provide some additional color on our committed 2019 targets.
我將為我們承諾的 2019 年目標提供一些額外的顏色。
As I noted earlier, we are making good progress on the $1 billion cost plan.
正如我之前提到的,我們在 10 億美元的成本計劃上取得了良好進展。
This is a critical element of our $5.25 non-GAAP EPS target, along with closing NXP or alternatively, moving ahead with our option to repurchase stock.
這是我們 5.25 美元的非公認會計原則每股收益目標的關鍵要素,同時關閉恩智浦或繼續我們的回購股票選擇權。
For our licensing business, the 5G royalty rates, the reduced NSP cap and the effects of the amended long-term Samsung license agreement were all factored into our fiscal 2019 guidance.
對於我們的許可業務,5G 特許權使用費率、降低的 NSP 上限以及修改後的三星長期許可協議的影響都被納入了我們 2019 財年的指導。
Taking into consideration these items and the expectation of continued growth in global 3G/4G handset sales in fiscal 2019, we expect QTL quarterly revenues in the near and medium term to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion on average, excluding the royalties from Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute.
考慮到這些項目以及 2019 財年全球 3G/4G 手機銷量持續增長的預期,我們預計 QTL 中短期季度收入平均在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間,不包括特許權使用費來自 Apple 的產品和其他有爭議的被許可人。
Of course, the amount in any one quarter will be subject to seasonal fluctuations, OEM mix, out-of-period catch-up amounts and continued progress on the licensing and compliance front, among other factors.
當然,任何一個季度的金額都將受到季節性波動、OEM 組合、超期追趕金額以及許可和合規方面的持續進展等因素的影響。
In QCT, we expect that fiscal 2019 performance will benefit from continued handset growth, particularly in emerging regions; continued strength in our China share in the mid, high and premium tiers; and growth in adjacent opportunities, including automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute.
在 QCT,我們預計 2019 財年的業績將受益於手機的持續增長,尤其是在新興地區;我們在中、高端和高端市場的中國市場份額持續走強;以及相關機會的增長,包括汽車、物聯網、網絡和移動計算。
That concludes my comments.
我的評論到此結束。
I will now turn the call back to John.
我現在將電話轉回給約翰。
John Sinnott - VP of IR
John Sinnott - VP of IR
Thank you, George.
謝謝你,喬治。
Operator, we are ready for questions.
接線員,我們準備好提問了。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
(操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美銀美林的 Tal Liani。
Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector
Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector
Can you repeat the reasons for the weak QTL guidance for next quarter?
您能否重複下季度 QTL 指引疲弱的原因?
And how does it change going forward, especially what happens with Release 15 licensing?
它在未來會發生怎樣的變化,尤其是 Release 15 許可會發生什麼變化?
What I didn't understand is, so far -- and maybe it's just my understanding.
到目前為止,我不明白的是——也許這只是我的理解。
So far, your license covered all the patents and clients had to pay regardless of what patent they are using.
到目前為止,您的許可涵蓋了所有專利,客戶無論使用什麼專利都必須付費。
Does it mean that LTE licensing is separate?
這是否意味著 LTE 許可是分開的?
And is the royalty rate for LTE licensing different, lower than the general licensing rate?
LTE 許可的特許權使用費是否不同,低於一般許可費?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
So what I'll do, Tal, this is George.
所以我會做什麼,塔爾,我是喬治。
I'll cover the questions on the bridge and then maybe Alex can talk a little bit about the structure of the SEP-only program.
我將介紹橋牌上的問題,然後也許 Alex 可以談談 SEP-only 程序的結構。
So if you look at the sequential bridge, the product -- we said that it's down about $300 million.
所以如果你看一下順序橋,產品——我們說它下降了大約 3 億美元。
Some of that is the normal seasonal drop-off that we get because this -- remember, we're reporting on a lag.
其中一些是我們得到的正常季節性下降,因為 - 請記住,我們報告的是滯後。
So this is calendar Q1 activities.
所以這是日曆第一季度的活動。
This is where we saw the significant pullback in demand across -- for devices in general.
這就是我們看到整體設備需求顯著回落的地方。
So we have a weak market.
所以我們有一個疲軟的市場。
We also have the pullback from a -- that's just natural with Q1.
我們也有回調——這在第一季度很自然。
The other piece is, we also had some higher onetime amounts in Q2 than we're reporting in Q3.
另一部分是,我們在第二季度的一次性金額也高於我們在第三季度報告的金額。
So that's about a little more than half of the $300 million.
所以這大約是3億美元的一半多一點。
The other half is the changes that we talked about, reflecting both the amendment to the Samsung agreement which, among other things, includes the cross-license rights that are quite extensive and the changes that we anticipate to see in the quarter to contracts for licensees that will take an SEP-only license, which has a number of favorable characteristics that I'm sure Alex will cover.
另一半是我們談到的變化,既反映了對三星協議的修訂,其中包括相當廣泛的交叉許可權,以及我們預計在本季度看到的被許可人合同的變化這將需要一個 SEP-only 許可證,它具有許多我相信 Alex 會涵蓋的有利特徵。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
So this is Alex.
這就是亞歷克斯。
Picking up where George left off.
從喬治離開的地方開始。
Just a little bit of context, I think, is helpful.
我認為,只是一點點上下文是有幫助的。
Since 2015, we established a very successful licensing program in China for SEP licenses for 3G and 4G through Release 11 at a set of rates that came out of the resolution of the China matter.
自 2015 年以來,我們通過第 11 版在中國建立了非常成功的 3G 和 4G 標準必要專利許可許可計劃,該許可計劃採用了解決中國問題後的一系列費率。
And what we've done and what we announced in November of 2017 is that we are extending that set of rates to a worldwide program for SEP-only licensing for 3G and 4G with the remaining releases, also to include the first release of 5G, where the standard -- the specification was finalized in December of last year.
我們所做的以及我們在 2017 年 11 月宣布的內容是,我們正在將該組費率擴展到全球計劃,用於 3G 和 4G 的僅 SEP 許可以及其餘版本,還包括 5G 的第一個版本,其中標準——規範於去年12月完成。
That is our SEP-only licensing program going forward.
這是我們未來的僅限 SEP 許可計劃。
Of course, we still have a portfolio-wide licensing program at the standard rate of 5%.
當然,我們仍然有一個按 5% 的標準費率進行的產品組合許可計劃。
But we expect, on a go-forward basis, that there'll be a number of licensees who are interested in extensions and renewals who may want to have SEP-only license agreements.
但我們預計,在向前發展的基礎上,將會有許多對擴展和續訂感興趣的被許可人可能希望擁有僅限 SEP 的許可協議。
And of course, we'll negotiate those sorts of agreements.
當然,我們會就這些協議進行談判。
And we expect that there'll be a few of those agreements being reached even in this quarter.
我們預計即使在本季度也會達成其中的一些協議。
So the program is rooted in a very successful program that came out of China with over 120 license agreements.
因此,該計劃植根於一個非常成功的計劃,該計劃來自中國,擁有超過 120 份許可協議。
We expect this program to be successful and to facilitate a very good transition to 5G in the second half of '19.
我們預計該計劃將取得成功,並在 19 年下半年促進向 5G 的良好過渡。
We expect there'll be a number of licensees who want to maintain portfolio-wide agreements worldwide.
我們預計將有許多被許可人希望在全球範圍內維持投資組合範圍的協議。
But there will also be licensees who want to have SEP-only agreements on a worldwide basis.
但也會有被許可人希望在全球範圍內簽訂僅限 SEP 的協議。
And that is, of course, something that we can accommodate on a case-by-case basis.
當然,這是我們可以根據具體情況進行調整的內容。
Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector
Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector
And I apologize if I -- if it sounds stupid, but would you mind to discuss what does it mean SEP only?
如果我 - 如果這聽起來很愚蠢,我道歉,但你介意討論它的含義嗎?
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
No problem, standard essential patents.
沒問題,標準必要專利。
So our standard essential patents that have been declared for 3G/4G and the first 5G standard.
所以我們的標準必要專利已經申報為3G/4G和第一個5G標準。
Those patents as distinguished from nonessential patents, implementation patents, other patents that are relevant to other standards other than cellular standards.
這些專利區別於非必要專利、實施專利、與蜂窩標準以外的其他標準相關的其他專利。
So when we refer to SEPs, we're referring generally to cellular standard essential patents for the technology generations that we all understand to be 3, 4 and 5G.
因此,當我們提到標準必要專利時,我們通常指的是我們都理解為 3、4 和 5G 的技術世代的蜂窩標準必要專利。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from Chris Caso with Raymond James.
我們的下一個問題來自 Chris Caso 和 Raymond James。
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
Christopher Caso - Research Analyst
Just a follow-up on the previous discussion a little bit.
只是對前面討論的一點點的跟進。
With regard to the fiscal '19 guidance, you talked about that this new licensing scheme was included in that.
關於 '19 財年指南,您談到了這個新的許可計劃包含在其中。
Could you walk us through a bit of how you get to that fiscal '19 EPS guidance?
您能否向我們介紹一下您是如何獲得 19 財年 EPS 指導的?
What are the puts and takes there and how this new licensing scheme falls into that as well?
那裡的看跌期權是什麼?這個新的許可計劃又是如何落入其中的?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Yes.
是的。
This is George, Chris.
這是喬治,克里斯。
The $5.25 base, as we said, included approximately $1.50 from NXP accretion.
正如我們所說,5.25 美元的基礎包括大約 1.50 美元來自恩智浦的增值。
It included the benefit of $1 billion in the year of OpEx reduction.
它包括在運營支出減少的那一年帶來的 10 億美元的收益。
And then it had the underlying run rate of the business, absent the Apple license payments, new Apple business that we presume would be held up as part of the process of the litigation.
然後它具有業務的基本運行率,在沒有 Apple 許可付款的情況下,我們認為新的 Apple 業務將作為訴訟過程的一部分被擱置。
And so we said to help people model, we indicated in my script that for modeling the levels of licensing revenue, excluding Apple and the other licensee, you can plan on, on average, between $1 billion and $1.1 billion per quarter.
所以我們說要幫助人們建模,我們在我的腳本中指出,為了建模許可收入水平,不包括蘋果和其他被許可人,你可以計劃平均每季度 10 億到 11 億美元。
Obviously, that can fluctuate a little bit depending on some of the onetime items that show up or the strength of the market overall changing.
顯然,這可能會根據出現的一些一次性項目或市場整體變化的力量而略有波動。
We think that's a reasonable number.
我們認為這是一個合理的數字。
The balance of that then is going to be driven by fundamentally, the performance of the QCT mobile business and the adjacent business is a part of that.
然後,從根本上說,QCT 移動業務和相鄰業務的表現將是其中的一部分。
And I think the $5.25 is consistent with the basic position we have in QCT today and continued growth in the adjacent.
而且我認為 5.25 美元與我們今天在 QCT 的基本位置以及相鄰的持續增長是一致的。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.
我們的下一個問題來自於 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。
Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst
Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst
Just for the $5.25 and guidance for that out-year.
只需 5.25 美元和當年的指導。
Can you walk us through maybe what you expect for QCT in terms of margin targets that you expect to hit as the cost reductions come out of the business model implied in that guidance?
您能否向我們介紹一下您對 QCT 的期望,即您期望達到的利潤率目標,因為該指導中隱含的商業模式會降低成本?
And then also for the $5.25, what is management's plan should China continue to block NXP?
然後對於 5.25 美元,如果中國繼續阻止 NXP,管理層的計劃是什麼?
When do you finally just pull the plug?
你什麼時候終於拔掉插頭了?
And is the buyback really the best thing to do with that cash to get to that $5.25?
用這筆現金回購 5.25 美元真的是最好的辦法嗎?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Yes.
是的。
We haven't put out margin targets for QCT.
我們還沒有為 QCT 設定保證金目標。
Obviously, we've said that we expect to get to our long-term margin target of greater than 20% over time.
顯然,我們已經說過我們希望隨著時間的推移達到超過 20% 的長期利潤率目標。
And certainly, you would expect to see that as part of the kind of recovery case that the $6.75 to $7.50 envisions, where we start to get some product business back that was taken away and also probably additional RF front end business as part of that.
當然,您會期望將其視為 6.75 至 7.50 美元所設想的那種恢復案例的一部分,我們開始收回一些被帶走的產品業務,並且可能還有額外的射頻前端業務作為其中的一部分。
So I think, overall, the $5.25 is really just a continuation for QCT of their current position, strength in China, strength in the premium tier, which has been a positive relative to what we've seen with the falloff in the thin modem business and then growth in the adjacent.
所以我認為,總體而言,5.25 美元實際上只是 QCT 目前地位的延續,在中國的實力,在高端市場的實力,相對於我們所看到的薄調製解調器業務的下滑而言,這是一個積極的方面然後在附近生長。
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Mike, this is Steve.
邁克,這是史蒂夫。
Maybe on your question related to NXP.
也許關於您與 NXP 相關的問題。
There was probably a point in the -- as I understand, in the audio where people couldn't hear my comments related to NXP.
據我所知,在音頻中可能有一點,人們聽不到我對恩智浦的評論。
But in short, what I said was that we continue to work closely with China.
但簡而言之,我所說的是我們繼續與中國密切合作。
The environment is obviously quite difficult from a geopolitical point of view, at least right now.
從地緣政治的角度來看,環境顯然相當困難,至少現在是這樣。
However, we expect to ultimately receive approval.
但是,我們預計最終會獲得批准。
And I'll just remind folks that we have 8 of 9 jurisdictions that have already ruled on it.
我只想提醒大家,我們有 9 個司法管轄區中的 8 個已經對其作出裁決。
So although we -- we remain committed to it.
因此,儘管我們 - 我們仍然致力於它。
And we think it's going to get done.
我們認為它會完成。
However, if it does not get done, as you mentioned, we think we have the ability to move very rapidly on a buyback as we communicated earlier in the January time frame.
但是,如果它沒有完成,正如你所提到的,我們認為我們有能力在回購方面非常迅速地採取行動,正如我們在一月份早些時候溝通的那樣。
I'll just remind everyone that we did a 90-day extension to the merger agreement.
我只想提醒大家,我們將合併協議延長了 90 天。
And we're going to work very hard to get that done.
我們將非常努力地完成這項工作。
And if it doesn't get done, we're going to move on to another approach.
如果它沒有完成,我們將轉向另一種方法。
So hopefully, that answers the question.
所以希望這能回答這個問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Amit Daryanani。
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst
Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst
I guess, Steve, maybe just a follow-up on the line you had earlier.
我想,史蒂夫,也許只是你之前的線路的後續行動。
Is July 25 sort of the drop-dead deadline where if this is not done by then you will move to plan B, i.e., buybacks?
7 月 25 日是那種死氣沉沉的最後期限,如果到那時還沒有完成,那麼您將轉向 B 計劃,即回購?
Or would you just extend the merger agreement further?
或者你會進一步延長合併協議嗎?
And then any sense on what the MOFCOM issues are or what remedies they want above and beyond what you agreed to in other jurisdictions?
那麼,商務部的問題是什麼,或者他們想要什麼補救措施,超出你在其他司法管轄區同意的範圍?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Well, I'd say, Amit, with respect to the agreement, yes, we have just extended it by 90 days.
嗯,我想說,Amit,關於協議,是的,我們剛剛將它延長了 90 天。
So I think both companies are moving toward that time line.
所以我認為兩家公司都在朝著那個時間線前進。
And we certainly have other ability and avenues to drive value.
我們當然還有其他能力和途徑來推動價值。
And that's sort of how we're thinking about the issue.
這就是我們思考這個問題的方式。
Of course, things can always change as we move through the process, but that's the way that it's set up right now.
當然,隨著我們在整個過程中前進,事情總是會發生變化,但這就是現在的設置方式。
With respect to MOFCOM and remedies, our evaluation of the environment is such that really, I think the issue is probably more related to the higher-level discussions between the countries as opposed to any individual issue related to MOFCOM.
關於商務部和補救措施,我們對環境的評估確實如此,我認為這個問題可能更多地與國家之間的更高級別的討論有關,而不是與商務部有關的任何個別問題。
Of course, we continue to work with the regulators and work through any issues that pop up.
當然,我們會繼續與監管機構合作,解決出現的任何問題。
But I think the environmental issues between the countries are probably more the situation today than anything else.
但我認為,兩國之間的環境問題可能比其他任何事情都更符合今天的情況。
But obviously, we work closely with the regulator.
但顯然,我們與監管機構密切合作。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets.
我們的下一個問題來自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Tim Long。
Timothy Patrick Long - Senior Equity Analyst
Timothy Patrick Long - Senior Equity Analyst
Just wanted to close out one more on the QTL part and then a question on the QCT piece.
只是想再結束一個關於 QTL 部分的問題,然後是關於 QCT 部分的一個問題。
So Alex, for you, I just want to make sure I understand this.
所以亞歷克斯,對你來說,我只是想確保我理解這一點。
So the impact of the SEP only and 5G licenses, that's hitting revenues, is that because those deals will have a lower rate structure?
那麼,僅 SEP 和 5G 許可證對收入的影響,是因為這些交易將具有較低的費率結構嗎?
Or is it because there's some kind of onetime impact of nonpayment as those deals are being negotiated?
還是因為在談判這些交易時,不付款會產生某種一次性影響?
And then on the QCT side, units are holding up very well.
然後在 QCT 方面,單位表現非常好。
I think you mentioned some ZTE hit in the quarter.
我想你提到了本季度中興通訊的一些打擊。
You mentioned inventory reductions, but it's a pretty weak market in China.
您提到了減少庫存,但中國的市場相當疲軟。
And I guess, we got a new set of iPhones coming out.
我猜,我們推出了一套新的 iPhone。
And you guys have intimated that you potentially could do a little bit worse there or you're at least planning that you might not have as much share in that win.
你們已經暗示你可能會在那裡做得更糟,或者你至少計劃在這場胜利中你可能沒有那麼多的份額。
So could you just maybe -- is this predominantly market share that you think is keeping your numbers better, I'd say, than the end market for the last few quarters?
那麼您是否可以-我認為這個主要的市場份額是否比過去幾個季度的終端市場更好地保持了您的數據?
That would be helpful.
那會很有幫助。
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Tim, this is George.
蒂姆,這是喬治。
Maybe I'll take the point on what is the impact that we're seeing from these changes.
也許我會談談我們從這些變化中看到的影響。
Again, what we said is, a little less than half of the $300 million is related to the -- what I would call the run rate changes associated with the amendments to the Samsung agreement that we announced last quarter and also the SEP only expected impacts that we expect to be in the run rate this quarter.
同樣,我們所說的是,在 3 億美元中,不到一半與 - 我稱之為與我們上季度宣布的三星協議修正案相關的運行率變化以及 SEP 的預期影響我們預計本季度將處於運行速度。
So they -- it would be effectively a lower effective rate for those licensees than if they'd had a portfolio license prior to that time.
所以他們 - 對於那些被許可人來說,這實際上比他們在此之前擁有組合許可的有效稅率更低。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
This is Alex.
這是亞歷克斯。
But I think it's important to note that, again, some licensees may choose to have an SEP-only agreement, including the 5G IP rights going forward.
但我認為重要的是要再次注意,一些被許可人可能會選擇僅簽訂 SEP 協議,包括未來的 5G IP 權利。
And they may choose to extend on that basis.
他們可能會選擇在此基礎上進行擴展。
But others will prefer a portfolio-wide agreement for obvious reasons.
但出於顯而易見的原因,其他人會更喜歡投資組合範圍內的協議。
They enjoy the benefits of the entire portfolio and protected under the entire portfolio.
他們享受整個投資組合的好處,並在整個投資組合下受到保護。
And these are going to be determined on a case-by-case basis as we get into these negotiations, but we do believe that some licensees will choose SEP only on a worldwide basis.
這些將在我們進行這些談判時根據具體情況確定,但我們確實相信一些被許可人只會在全球範圍內選擇標準必要專利。
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Hey, Tim, let me add one more thing, I think, before Cristiano comes in on some of the demand things, the demand environment for QCT.
嘿,蒂姆,我想,在克里斯蒂亞諾談到一些需求之前,讓我再補充一件事,即 QCT 的需求環境。
As I look at Q3, one of the difficult stories is because the -- we're seeing some -- this is the quarter where QCT is seeing some of the weakness in reports that we talked about because they report a month lag.
當我看第三季度時,一個困難的故事是因為 - 我們看到了一些 - 這是 QCT 在我們談到的報告中看到一些弱點的季度,因為他們報告了一個月的滯後。
So that would -- those are the weakness that QCT saw in Q2, but is seeing recovery in Q3.
所以這就是 QCT 在第二季度看到的弱點,但在第三季度看到了復甦。
But we continue to see an underlying growth in the licensing market when you look at units and ASPs.
但是,當您查看單位和 ASP 時,我們繼續看到許可市場的潛在增長。
If we just looked back to Q3 '17 and we looked at the market as -- for the licensees that are paying today and we look at today, the market has grown to the point where the -- essentially, the cost of these changes in the program on a run rate basis is being covered by the growth in the market because of the strength of both units and in particular, ASPs.
如果我們只是回顧 17 年第三季度,我們將市場視為 - 對於今天支付的被許可人,我們今天觀察,市場已經發展到 - 從本質上講,這些變化的成本由於這兩個單位的實力,特別是 ASP 的實力,該計劃以運行率為基礎被市場增長所覆蓋。
Cristiano, do you want to?
克里斯蒂亞諾,你願意嗎?
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Cristiano Renno Amon - President
Yes.
是的。
So on QCT, it's actually a simple story.
所以在 QCT 上,這實際上是一個簡單的故事。
Q2 has been a great quarter for us, particularly if you look compared to in our year-over-year.
第二季度對我們來說是一個很棒的季度,特別是如果你與我們的去年同期相比的話。
I think we saw continued strength in our product portfolio.
我認為我們在產品組合中看到了持續的優勢。
As we look forward and that's -- I think George said that we chose to take a conservative approach.
正如我們所期待的那樣——我認為喬治說我們選擇採取保守的方法。
However, we do see that the inventory levels came down back to normal in China.
然而,我們確實看到中國的庫存水平已恢復正常。
So it's a story that we still -- we look at the units.
所以這是一個故事,我們仍然 - 我們著眼於單位。
We still think there is overall -- the drivers of our strength in China business continue.
我們仍然認為總體而言——我們在中國業務實力的驅動力仍在繼續。
I think we see an improvement of mix.
我認為我們看到了混合的改進。
We see an improvement of handset ASPs.
我們看到手機平均售價有所改善。
We have some interesting transitions ahead of us such as China Mobile recently got a license for FDD.
我們前面有一些有趣的轉變,例如中國移動最近獲得了 FDD 許可證。
We have 5G coming in '19.
我們將在 19 年推出 5G。
So I think the story is good.
所以我覺得這個故事很好。
We're just dealing with how we think about the overall industry is in the second half.
我們只是在處理我們對下半年整個行業的看法。
And we have seen a decline in thin modems, probably consistent with everybody else in the industry.
我們已經看到瘦調製解調器的下降,這可能與業內其他所有人一致。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein Research 的 Stacy Rasgon。
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst
I just want to make sure I have this straight.
我只是想確保我有這個直。
So basically, you're folding 5G now into the licensing model.
所以基本上,你現在將 5G 折疊到許可模式中。
And you're getting paid less for it.
而且你得到的報酬更少。
And you're talking about it like it's a good thing.
你談論它就像這是一件好事。
Why is this a good thing?
為什麼這是一件好事?
Is this being proactive to halt the spread of other disputes?
這是在積極阻止其他爭端的蔓延嗎?
Or like what's the driving force behind doing this?
或者像這樣做背後的驅動力是什麼?
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Stacy, this is Alex.
斯泰西,這是亞歷克斯。
We're including 5G in the SEP-only licensing model.
我們將 5G 包含在僅限 SEP 的許可模式中。
We're not getting paid less for it.
我們不會因此而得到更少的報酬。
I think the best way to think about this is building a foundation for long-term stability in QTL.
我認為考慮這個問題的最佳方法是為 QTL 的長期穩定性奠定基礎。
The current program that we've announced for SEPs that we announced back in November has tremendous consistency with the program that we successfully established in China, coming out of the China investigation.
我們在 11 月宣布的當前 SEP 計劃與我們在中國成功建立的計劃具有極大的一致性,該計劃來自中國調查。
We actually now have over 150 SEP-only licensees through the 3G and 4G program there.
實際上,我們現在通過那裡的 3G 和 4G 計劃擁有 150 多個僅限 SEP 的被許可人。
And in addition, with the announcement in November, ahead of the adoption of the first release of 5G, we have tremendous transparency for the program going forward.
此外,隨著 11 月的宣布,在 5G 的第一個版本採用之前,我們為未來的計劃提供了巨大的透明度。
And so what we've done is we've purposely built the program to facilitate a transition to 5G in a way that successfully enables us to bring on new licensees and extend their agreements for longer terms.
因此,我們所做的是我們特意構建了該計劃,以促進向 5G 的過渡,從而成功地使我們能夠引入新的被許可人並延長他們的協議期限。
And so this creates tremendous stability.
因此,這創造了巨大的穩定性。
Now we do expect that the number of licensees will want to have portfolio-wide licenses.
現在,我們確實預計被許可人的數量將希望擁有整個產品組合的許可。
And so there's going to be a mix.
所以會有一個混合。
But the effect of all of this has been considered in our FY '19 numbers.
但是,我們 19 財年的數據已經考慮了所有這些的影響。
So we've looked at this and purposely built this program for stability long term.
因此,我們已經研究了這一點,並特意構建了這個程序以實現長期穩定性。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 James Faucette。
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director
I wanted to, I guess, follow up on that question or at least as it pertains to the unnamed licensee.
我想,我想跟進這個問題,或者至少與未具名的被許可人有關。
I guess, with the new structure, how should we expect the impact to compliance and ability to assure compliance firstly?
我想,在新的結構下,我們應該如何預期對合規性和首先確保合規性的能力的影響?
And secondly, I guess, I'm wondering a little bit why anybody would offer a portfolio-wide license, especially when from the time that you introduced the standard essential patent licensing program in China, you had indicated that negotiations around nonessential IP would be done separately.
其次,我想,我有點想知道為什麼有人會提供組合範圍的許可,尤其是當您在中國推出標準必要專利許可計劃時,您曾表示圍繞非必要知識產權的談判將是分開做。
But I don't think we've really seen any movement there.
但我不認為我們真的在那裡看到了任何動靜。
So it seems like you're moving towards a standard essential patent only licensing program, and I'm wondering how we should expect you to be able to collect on nonessential IP and how this move may impact bringing the noncomplying unnamed licensee into compliance.
因此,您似乎正在轉向僅標準必要專利許可計劃,我想知道我們應該如何期望您能夠收集非必要知識產權,以及這一舉措可能如何影響使不合規的未命名被許可人合規。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
So with respect to the unnamed licensee, having a consistent program that's widely adopted is a very good thing from a comp perspective.
因此,對於未具名的被許可人而言,擁有一個被廣泛採用的一致程序從競爭的角度來看是一件非常好的事情。
So it actually creates an environment that enables us to essentially engage in the ongoing negotiations with that licensee from a position of strength, essentially saying that this is a widely adopted program.
因此,它實際上創造了一個環境,使我們能夠從實力的位置基本上參與與該被許可人正在進行的談判,基本上說這是一個被廣泛採用的計劃。
So that unnamed licensee is an outlier.
所以那個未具名的被許可人是一個異常值。
In terms of SEP only and the rest of the portfolio, there are a number of licensees that don't have portfolio-wide agreements.
僅就 SEP 和產品組合的其餘部分而言,有許多被許可人沒有組合範圍內的協議。
And we'll continue with those portfolio-wide agreements.
我們將繼續與這些投資組合範圍內的協議。
And we expect that to happen.
我們希望這會發生。
As I said, it'll be a mix.
正如我所說,這將是一個混合體。
The rest of the portfolio is still valuable.
投資組合的其餘部分仍然很有價值。
It's a very large portfolio.
這是一個非常大的投資組合。
As you know, 130 patents and pending applications.
如您所知,130 項專利和未決申請。
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
130,000.
130,000。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
130,000 patents and pending applications.
130,000 項專利和未決申請。
And that the value and strength of that portfolio, I think, is demonstrated in the assertions that we've had when we've had to have them, including against a company in China that signed up to a license and the assertions that we're making now in our litigation, where over 40 nonessential -- excuse me, over 50 nonessential patents are being asserted.
我認為,該投資組合的價值和實力體現在我們必須擁有它們時所擁有的斷言中,包括針對簽署許可的中國公司的斷言以及我們的斷言現在在我們的訴訟中重新進行,其中有 40 多項非必要專利——對不起,有 50 多項非必要專利正在被主張。
So the rest of the portfolio is still valuable and licensees will still want to have portfolio-wide protection.
因此,產品組合的其餘部分仍然很有價值,被許可方仍希望獲得整個產品組合的保護。
In fact, we have many portfolio-wide agreements that will continue.
事實上,我們有許多將繼續存在的投資組合範圍內的協議。
It will be a mix.
這將是一個混合。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.
我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西莫爾(Ross Seymore)。
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
Ross Clark Seymore - MD
Just one question and one follow-up, so I guess 2 questions here.
只有一個問題和一個後續問題,所以我猜這裡有 2 個問題。
Just to wrap up the QTL side of things.
只是為了總結 QTL 方面的事情。
Embedded in the $5.25 base and then the road towards $7, et cetera, in your 2019 goal, do you believe that the implied royalty rate that we had before of roughly 2.9% will be higher or lower given all the moving parts that you've described in today's call?
在您的 2019 年目標中,以 5.25 美元為基礎,然後朝著 7 美元等方向發展,您是否認為考慮到您擁有的所有活動部件,我們之前大約 2.9% 的隱含特許權使用費率會更高或更低在今天的電話中描述?
And then the second question more for George, specifically on the OpEx cuts and the $1 billion number.
然後是喬治的第二個問題,特別是關於運營支出削減和 10 億美元的數字。
Can you talk a little bit about the linearity of that?
你能談談它的線性嗎?
And when are we going to start to see some of those absolute dollars come out?
我們什麼時候才能開始看到其中一些絕對的美元出現?
And how important is that litigation that's currently elevated going back to some normalized level?
目前正在提升到某種正常水平的訴訟有多重要?
How important is that in getting to the $1 billion annualized savings?
這對於每年節省 10 億美元有多重要?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Yes.
是的。
Ross, this is George.
羅斯,這是喬治。
So on the implied royalty rate, obviously, there's a lot of moving parts when you have 2 major licensees.
因此,在隱含的特許權使用費率上,顯然,當您擁有 2 個主要被許可方時,會有很多變動因素。
One of which is reporting.
其中之一是報告。
One of which is not reporting.
其中之一是不報告。
So it's really not a very meaningful number, which is why we have stopped guiding total reported device sales and some of these other items.
所以這真的不是一個非常有意義的數字,這就是為什麼我們停止指導報告的設備總銷售額和其他一些項目。
We think the rates that are embedded in the SEP-only licenses are fully consistent, as we said, in the run rate that we had factored into the FY '19 numbers.
正如我們所說,我們認為嵌入在僅限 SEP 許可證中的費率與我們在 19 財年數字中考慮的運行率完全一致。
As you remember, we actually announced the 5G program in last November.
您還記得,我們實際上是在去年 11 月宣布了 5G 計劃。
Also, they -- if you apply them to the volumes, the same standards to the volumes of the nonpaying licensees, you would very easily get to our $6.75 to $7.50 range.
此外,如果您將它們應用到卷上,將相同的標準應用於非付費被許可方的捲,您將很容易達到我們的 6.75 美元到 7.50 美元的範圍。
So I think that's the key point.
所以我認為這是關鍵點。
And with respect to litigation normalization, the cost-reduction program expects to take out $1 billion in the run rate without relying on a change in the litigation run rate of the company.
在訴訟正常化方面,成本削減計劃預計將在不依賴公司訴訟運行率變化的情況下減少 10 億美元的運行率。
I would describe that as a peace dividend that would flow through post the resolution of the litigation matters.
我將其描述為一種和平紅利,將在訴訟事項解決後流過。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Equity.
我們的下一個問題來自 Nomura Equity 的 Romit Shah。
Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director
Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director
I had 2 questions.
我有 2 個問題。
One, George, just the litigation costs rising a little bit in June.
一,喬治,只是訴訟費用在 6 月份略有上升。
Should we assume this level for litigation for the foreseeable future?
在可預見的未來,我們是否應該在訴訟中假設這個水平?
That's the first question.
這是第一個問題。
The second question, I just wanted to ask about just the smartphone market overall and unit growth.
第二個問題,我只想問智能手機市場的整體和單位增長。
You guys mentioned in your monologue that replacement rates are going out.
你們在獨白中提到替換率正在下降。
When we saw this happen with PCs, unit growth actually went negative.
當我們看到 PC 發生這種情況時,單位增長實際上是負數。
And today, we're seeing weakness in smartphones that, for the most part, seems fairly broad-based.
而今天,我們看到智能手機的弱點在很大程度上似乎相當廣泛。
And I guess my question is, what makes you confident that this weakness we're seeing is just temporary and that the market overall can grow from here?
我想我的問題是,是什麼讓你相信我們看到的這種疲軟只是暫時的,並且整個市場可以從這裡開始增長?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
So on the litigation pattern, we're in a period during this quarter, Q3, where we have very, very significant discovery processes and active preparation for multiple cases.
因此,在訴訟模式上,我們正處於本季度第三季度的一個時期,我們有非常非常重要的發現流程和積極準備多個案件。
So I would like to believe that this represents kind of a high-water mark.
所以我願意相信這代表了一種高水位線。
But of course, it's very important that we get this right.
但是,當然,我們把這件事做好是非常重要的。
So we're going to spend what we need to spend as we see necessary to protect our licensing program.
因此,我們將花費我們認為必要的費用來保護我們的許可計劃。
But I would say, the second half is going to be heavier in the fiscal year '18 than the first half, but we're kind of at a level now where we're supporting a lot of activity on multiple fronts.
但我會說,在 18 財年的下半年將比上半年更重,但我們現在處於一個水平,我們在多個方面支持大量活動。
So I don't expect to be significantly higher on a run rate basis, but it could be sustained at this level for a little period of time.
因此,我預計在運行率的基礎上不會顯著提高,但它可以在這個水平上維持一段時間。
In terms of the handset market and units, what you're really seeing is the impact of replacement rates has really slowed growth in the developed markets.
就手機市場和單位而言,您真正看到的是更換率的影響確實減緩了發達市場的增長。
You're getting a little bit of growth in Europe.
你在歐洲得到了一點增長。
But the emerging markets continue to be a positive source of growth.
但新興市場仍然是增長的積極來源。
And in particular, in India, in Southeast Asia, in Middle East, Africa, we're continuing to still see healthy mid- to high, well, we've seen double-digit growth in India and mid- to high single digit growth in some of these other areas.
特別是在印度、東南亞、中東、非洲,我們仍然看到健康的中高水平,嗯,我們已經看到印度兩位數的增長和中高個位數的增長在其他一些領域。
So I think that remains a positive.
所以我認為這仍然是積極的。
Also, we think in '19, you're starting to see the first 5G phones come into the marketplace.
此外,我們認為在 19 年,您將開始看到首批 5G 手機進入市場。
And as you go in '19 and into '20, you could start to see a replacement cycle just really driven by people wanting to take advantage of the capabilities that 5G brings.
當你進入 19 年和 20 年時,你可能會開始看到一個真正由想要利用 5G 帶來的功能的人推動的更換週期。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.
我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡(Timothy Arcuri)。
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
I actually had 2 questions.
我實際上有2個問題。
The first is, I'm wondering how you handicapped for the fiscal 2019 guidance, how you handicapped the potential for the trade issues to broaden.
首先是,我想知道您如何阻礙 2019 財年的指導,您如何阻礙貿易問題擴大的潛力。
Obviously, there's news now that Huawei is being looked at as well.
顯然,現在有消息稱華為也在被關注。
So I'm wondering how you handicapped that in your guidance, number one.
所以我想知道你是如何在你的指導中阻礙這一點的,第一。
And then number two, the guidance for the June quarter, if I read your comments right, are you basically saying that the normalized earnings guidance, if you assume that 8% tax rate that you had said previously, would be like $0.50?
然後第二個,六月季度的指導,如果我沒看錯你的評論,你基本上是說正常化的收益指導,如果你假設你之前說過的 8% 的稅率,會像 0.50 美元?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
Tim, so on the first.
蒂姆,等等第一個。
Obviously, the trade talks are current and it's very hard to forecast.
顯然,貿易談判是當前的,很難預測。
Those were not part of our thinking.
那些不是我們思考的一部分。
And we've seen, even in China, some pretty big swings in demand intra-quarter.
我們已經看到,即使在中國,季度內的需求也出現了相當大的波動。
So it's -- there's always going to be market fluctuations.
所以它 - 總會有市場波動。
But we think the fundamentals, if we think about the licensing business, the fundamentals, particularly on ASPs, are a real tailwind for that business going into '19.
但我們認為,如果我們考慮許可業務,那麼基本面,尤其是 ASP 方面的基本面,對於進入 19 年的業務來說是真正的順風。
We also like the growth that we're seeing in our adjacent businesses.
我們也喜歡我們在相鄰業務中看到的增長。
And we like our position overall in China.
我們喜歡我們在中國的整體地位。
But we'll have to see.
但我們必須看到。
The trade issues are an intangible.
貿易問題是無形的。
We'll have to see how that plays out.
我們將不得不看看結果如何。
In terms of the June quarter, what I would say is, if you back out simply the tax items, which to me are really fundamentally offsetting what is a weaker market.
就 6 月季度而言,我想說的是,如果你只是簡單地退出稅收項目,對我來說,這真的從根本上抵消了疲軟的市場。
Also, clearly, ZTE is coming out of there.
此外,很明顯,中興通訊正在走出困境。
We have the absence of some onetime items that were in our Q2 that are not in the Q3.
我們沒有出現在我們的 Q2 中但不在 Q3 中的一些一次性項目。
So I think it would be wrong to draw a line to $0.50, which is what I think your question was.
所以我認為將線劃到 0.50 美元是錯誤的,這就是我認為你的問題。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Chris Danely with Citigroup.
我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Chris Danely。
Christopher Brett Danely - MD
Christopher Brett Danely - MD
Just a question on plan B, if NXP does not happen.
如果恩智浦沒有發生,只是關於 B 計劃的一個問題。
Can you give us any color on what the potential size and timing of a buyback would be?
你能告訴我們回購的潛在規模和時間嗎?
And then if this does not go through, does this necessarily sort of end any M&A potential for you guys or would you look at doing something else?
如果這沒有通過,這是否一定會結束你們的任何併購潛力,還是你會考慮做其他事情?
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
So on plan B, it would be a large, a very large program.
所以在 B 計劃中,這將是一個非常大的項目。
It would be in the $20 billion to $30 billion range.
它將在 200 億至 300 億美元之間。
Obviously, at these prices, we think the stock price is quite attractive.
顯然,在這些價格下,我們認為股價相當有吸引力。
We don't think M&A would necessarily be closed off to the company.
我們認為併購不一定會對公司關閉。
We think these are pretty unusual circumstances that we're seeing today.
我們認為這些是我們今天看到的非常不尋常的情況。
So we will continue to look at opportunities to add to the portfolio over time.
因此,隨著時間的推移,我們將繼續尋找增加投資組合的機會。
We will generate the kind of cash flow that will allow us to consider other options down the road.
我們將產生一種現金流,使我們能夠考慮未來的其他選擇。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie Securities.
我們的下一個問題來自麥格理證券的 Srini Pajjuri。
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Senior Analyst
Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Senior Analyst
I just have a clarification.
我只是有一個澄清。
I guess, Alex, can you talk about where we are in the SEP-only transition in terms of how long will it take.
我想,亞歷克斯,您能談談我們在僅 SEP 過渡中的位置,需要多長時間。
And then I guess the real question is, you're guiding for $950 million in QTL revenue for Q2 or the next quarter.
然後我想真正的問題是,您為第二季度或下一季度的 QTL 收入指導為 9.5 億美元。
And then you also said that, that run rate will come back to $1 billion to $1.1 billion.
然後你還說,運行率將回到 10 億到 11 億美元。
So I'm just trying to understand what will drive that incremental growth.
所以我只是想了解什麼會推動這種增量增長。
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP
So this is George.
這就是喬治。
Maybe I'll take the second question first and then Alex can jump in.
也許我會先回答第二個問題,然後亞歷克斯可以加入。
So remember that our Q3 is the very weak calendar Q1 quarter for QTL.
所以請記住,我們的 Q3 是 QTL 非常疲軟的日曆 Q1 季度。
So you're seeing some seasonal elements there.
所以你在那裡看到了一些季節性元素。
That being said, we believe, in addition to some of the other moving parts that I talked about, not to mention just the general, the broader market weakness and the seasonal elements, the lower out-of-period, you factor all of those elements in.
話雖如此,我們相信,除了我談到的其他一些活動部分,更不用說一般情況,更廣泛的市場疲軟和季節性因素,期外較低的因素,你會考慮所有這些中的元素。
And also, we're continuing to see very strong ASPs and ASP growth in the marketplace.
而且,我們繼續看到市場上非常強勁的 ASP 和 ASP 增長。
That all moves you towards the $1 billion to $1.1 billion number.
這一切都使您朝著 10 億至 11 億美元的數字邁進。
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
And then with respect to the first part of the question.
然後關於問題的第一部分。
The chronology is that in November, when we announced the 5G program, the SEP program, including 5G Release 15, we're anticipating devices coming to market in second half of '19.
時間順序是,當我們在 11 月宣布 5G 計劃、SEP 計劃(包括 5G Release 15)時,我們預計設備將在 19 年下半年上市。
So we've got close to a 2-year window.
所以我們已經接近 2 年的窗口。
And there are a number of agreements that will extend through this entire time frame.
並且有許多協議將貫穿整個時間範圍。
Those agreements -- there are a number of agreements that will simply remain in place.
這些協議——有一些協議將繼續存在。
But there are other agreements that will come up for extensions and renewals.
但是還有其他協議會提出延期和續訂。
And so the timing of the announcement was to essentially provide transparency before the release, the specification was adopted, but also to facilitate a transition to negotiating these agreements, these extensions and renewals during this current time frame.
因此,公告的時間基本上是在發布之前提供透明度,規範被採用,但也是為了促進在當前時間框架內談判這些協議、這些擴展和更新的過渡。
And we expect that to happen with significant pace.
我們預計這將以顯著的速度發生。
So we do expect a number of agreements to be reached or renewals and extensions to be reached even in this quarter and then the following quarters, both on an SEP-only basis, but also on a portfolio-wide basis.
因此,我們確實預計,即使在本季度和接下來的幾個季度,也能達成一些協議或續約和延期,無論是在僅限 SEP 的基礎上,還是在整個投資組合的基礎上。
Operator
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.
我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
I have a question for Alex and a follow-up for Cristiano.
我有一個問題要問亞歷克斯,還有一個問題要問克里斯蒂亞諾。
Alex, I just wanted to talk about the non-SEP part of the portfolio.
亞歷克斯,我只是想談談投資組合中的非 SEP 部分。
So you said there was a transition where you'll be offering SEP-only licenses.
所以你說有一個過渡,你將提供僅限 SEP 的許可證。
Can you talk about the nonstandard essential portfolio and how you plan to monetize the patents here from a licensing perspective?
您能否談談非標準的基本產品組合以及您計劃如何從許可的角度將專利貨幣化?
What royalty rate do you think can be achieved here?
您認為這裡可以達到多少版稅?
And how many deals have you signed already for non-SEP only deals thus far?
到目前為止,您已經為僅非 SEP 的交易簽署了多少筆交易?
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
So the history of the licensing business is that most licensees have wanted full portfolio agreements.
因此,許可業務的歷史是,大多數被許可人都想要完整的投資組合協議。
That's the most efficient and most cost-efficient way to take a license to this portfolio.
這是獲得該產品組合許可的最有效和最具成本效益的方式。
And so the commercialization of the non-SEPs has always been in the context of full portfolio agreements.
因此,非標準必要專利的商業化一直是在完整組合協議的背景下進行的。
It is very rare that a company asks us for a separate license to non-SEPs only.
一家公司要求我們為非標準必要專利單獨許可的情況很少見。
So typically, a company will want a full portfolio agreement if they want full protection.
因此,通常情況下,如果一家公司想要全面保護,他們會想要一份完整的投資組合協議。
Again, that has happened historically the majority of the time.
同樣,這在歷史上大部分時間都發生過。
We don't have a separate distinct program at this point in time for non-SEPs.
我們目前沒有針對非標準必要專利的單獨的不同計劃。
Again, our primary commercial objective is to license the full portfolio.
同樣,我們的主要商業目標是授權整個產品組合。
But we do have a number of aspects to the portfolio, for example, in multimedia, in position location and in other areas where if we decide to do it, we can license them on a disaggregated basis.
但是我們確實有很多方面的投資組合,例如,在多媒體、位置定位和其他領域,如果我們決定這樣做,我們可以在分類的基礎上對它們進行許可。
But that's really all that I can say about that at this point.
但這就是我在這一點上能說的全部內容。
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst
And so you have not licensed any company who have taken SEP only?
所以你沒有許可任何只接受 SEP 的公司?
There's a whole raft of nonessential patents that you have not licensed to these companies that are taking SEP-only deals?
有一大堆非必要專利你沒有授權給這些只進行 SEP 交易的公司?
Is there a plan to monetize that out with doing platform deals, getting -- trading up to a platform deal, so to speak?
有沒有計劃通過進行平台交易來賺錢,可以這麼說?
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL
Again, I think it's -- I'll go back to what I said before.
再說一次,我認為是——我會回到我之前說的話。
I apologize if it wasn't clear.
如果不清楚,我很抱歉。
But the licensees have typically wanted, overwhelmingly wanted full portfolio agreements.
但被許可人通常想要、絕大多數想要完整的投資組合協議。
SEP-only licensing has been primarily a function of the program that we laid out in China and very successfully established in China since 2015.
SEP-only 許可主要是我們在中國製定的計劃的一項功能,並且自 2015 年以來在中國非常成功地建立。
And we do expect that on a go-forward basis, even though we've offered SEP only in the past, on a go-forward basis, there'll be more companies that want SEP only to include 5G.
我們確實希望在前進的基礎上,即使我們過去只提供 SEP,但在前進的基礎上,會有更多的公司希望 SEP 僅包含 5G。
But the primary commercialization of the rest of the portfolio will be in the context of full portfolio licensing.
但其餘產品組合的主要商業化將在完整的產品組合許可的背景下進行。
Operator
Operator
This ends our allotted time for questions and answers.
這結束了我們分配的問答時間。
Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?
Mollenkopf 先生,在暫停通話之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO
Yes.
是的。
Thank you.
謝謝你。
I just want to thank everyone for joining us on the call today.
我只想感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。
I also want to thank the employees for their hard work.
我還要感謝員工們的辛勤工作。
And I just want to say that the management team and the company will continue to focus on executing toward our fiscal year '19 targets, and we look forward to updating you next quarter on our progress.
我只想說,管理團隊和公司將繼續專注於執行我們的 19 財年目標,我們期待在下個季度向您通報我們的進展。
Thank you, everyone.
謝謝大家。
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call.
女士們,先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。
You may now disconnect.
您現在可以斷開連接。