高通 (QCOM) 2018 Q2 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

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  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm Second Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, April 25, 2018. The playback number for today's call is (855) 859-2056. International callers, please dial (404) 537-3406. The playback reservation number is 39466125.

    女士們、先生們,感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加高通公司2018財年第二季財報電話會議。(操作員說明)提醒:本次會議正在錄音,2018 年 4 月 25 日。今天電話回放號碼是(855)859-2056。國際來電者請撥 (404) 537-3406。播放預約號碼為 39466125。

  • I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁約翰辛諾特。辛諾特先生,請繼續。

  • John Sinnott - VP of IR

    John Sinnott - VP of IR

  • Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com and a replay will be available on our website later today.

    謝謝大家,大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括史蒂夫·莫倫科普夫和喬治·戴維斯的準備好的演講。此外,克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格也將參加問答環節。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站,查看我們的獲利報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片簡報。此外,本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網路直播,稍後將在我們的網站上提供重播。

  • During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends, or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

    在今天的電話會議中,我們將使用 G 條例定義的非 GAAP 財務指標,您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的調整表。我們也會做出前瞻性聲明,包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務表現的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與我們的前瞻性聲明中預測的內容有重大差異。請查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件,包括我們最新的 10-Q 表格,其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的重要因素。

  • And now the comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

    現在請聽聽高通執行長史蒂夫·莫倫科夫的評論。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

  • Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fiscal second quarter results were strong with non-GAAP earnings per share 14% above the midpoint of our guidance range driven by continued strong performance in QCT and cost management throughout the company, which was balanced by some headwinds from weaker industry conditions and litigation costs in QTL.

    謝謝你,約翰,大家下午好。我們第二財季業績強勁,非GAAP每股收益比我們預期範圍的中點高出14%,這主要得益於QCT的持續強勁表現和公司整體的成本控制,但同時也受到行業狀況疲軟和QTL訴訟成本等不利因素的影響。

  • We returned approximately $1 billion to stockholders in the quarter, including $845 million of dividends paid and $200 million in stock repurchases. We also announced a 9% increase to our quarterly dividend rate in the quarter, effective for dividends starting in the June quarter.

    本季我們向股東返還了約 10 億美元,其中包括支付的 8.45 億美元股息和 2 億美元的股票回購。本季我們也宣布將季度股息率提高 9%,該調整將從 6 月開始的季度股息生效。

  • Looking ahead, we see some near-term headwinds, but our longer-term outlook is consistent with our fiscal 2019 targets that we shared with you in January.

    展望未來,我們看到一些短期不利因素,但我們的長期前景與我們在 1 月與您分享的 2019 財年目標一致。

  • Our fiscal third quarter guidance reflects some softness in global 3G/4G device shipments, particularly in China, the impact of some changes we have made to our licensing framework as well as the impact of increased litigation expenses in our licensing business.

    我們第三財季的業績預期反映了全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量(尤其是在中國)的疲軟,以及我們對許可框架進行的一些調整的影響,以及許可業務中訴訟費用增加的影響。

  • QCT continues to execute well with strong performance in China and growth in adjacent areas, offset by some impact of lower modem shipments. For calendar 2018, we are adjusting our growth estimate for global 3G/4G device shipments lower. However, handset selling prices continue to be stronger than expected, which continues to be a favorable trend.

    QCT在中國市場表現強勁,鄰近地區也實現成長,但受到數據機出貨量下降的部分影響,因此其業績持續保持良好。對於 2018 年日曆年,我們將下調全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量的成長預期。然而,手機售價持續高於預期,這仍然是一個有利的趨勢。

  • As we navigate the short-term industry weakness in QCT, we continue to execute well on that business and our market share remains strong. The Snapdragon 845 platform, our latest premium tier offering, has achieved substantial commercial success with over 100 design wins already, including launched flagship devices by Samsung, Sony, ASUS and Xiaomi.

    儘管 QCT 行業短期內疲軟,但我們仍能很好地執行該業務,市場份額依然強勁。驍龍 845 平台是我們最新的高階產品,已取得巨大的商業成功,贏得了 100 多個設計訂單,其中包括三星、索尼、華碩和小米等公司推出的旗艦設備。

  • Our modem leadership continues. We recently announced our X24 LTE modem, which is the world's first 2-gigabit 4G modem and the world's first announced 7-nanometer chip. As the market transitions to 5G, the engineering challenges embedded in the 5G opportunity play directly to Qualcomm's strengths and the focused investment we have made over the last several years. We are leading the industry to 5G, and we are pleased to see the strength of our road map, helping to enable the upcoming commercial launches of 5G networks and devices, including the 18 network operators and 20 manufacturers that have selected our X50 5G modem for trials and 5G devices.

    我們在現代科技領域的領先地位仍在延續。我們最近發布了 X24 LTE 調變解調器,這是世界上第一款 2 千兆 4G 調變解調器,也是世界上第一款發布的 7 奈米晶片。隨著市場向 5G 過渡,5G 機會中蘊含的工程挑戰正好發揮了高通的優勢,也體現了我們在過去幾年中所做的重點投資。我們正引領業界邁向 5G,我們很高興看到我們的路線圖取得了顯著成效,這有助於推動即將到來的 5G 網路和設備的商業發布,其中包括 18 家網路營運商和 20 家製造商選擇我們的 X50 5G 調製解調器進行試驗和 5G 設備開發。

  • We also recently announced the world's first 5G module solutions, which include highly integrated, turnkey 5G modules, including application processor, baseband, transceiver, memory, power management, RF front end, antennas and other components that are designed to expand the ecosystem and accelerate 5G deployments.

    我們最近也發布了全球首款 5G 模組解決方案,其中包括高度整合的交鑰匙 5G 模組,包括應用處理器、基頻、收發器、記憶體、電源管理、射頻前端、天線和其他元件,旨在擴展生態系統並加速 5G 部署。

  • Our products continue to be differentiated driven by our unique systems-based approach to the complexities across wireless networks and devices. We are delivering industry-leading technologies and performance, which translate into a more efficient use of spectrum for operators and a lower bill of materials for device makers, delivering attractive economics for our partners and higher device content share for us.

    我們的產品之所以能夠保持差異化,是因為我們採用獨特的系統化方法來應對無線網路和設備的複雜性。我們提供業界領先的技術和性能,這轉化為營運商更有效地利用頻譜,降低設備製造商的物料成本,從而為我們的合作夥伴帶來可觀的經濟效益,並為我們帶來更高的設備市場份額。

  • In auto, our backlog of awarded design wins has increased to $4 billion as automakers and Tier 1 suppliers begin gearing up for 5G-enabled cars in 2021. We continue to be the supplier of choice given our decades of wireless technology leadership.

    在汽車領域,隨著汽車製造商和一級供應商開始為 2021 年的 5G 汽車做好準備,我們已中標的設計訂單總額已增至 40 億美元。憑藉數十年來在無線技術領域的領先地位,我們一直是客戶的首選供應商。

  • In infotainment, we have designs with 14 of the top 25 global automaker brands, including Audi, BYD, Geely, Honda, Jaguar Land Rover, PSA and Volkswagen.

    在資訊娛樂方面,我們與全球排名前 25 的汽車製造商品牌中的 14 個合作設計,包括奧迪、比亞迪、吉利、本田、捷豹路虎、PSA 和大眾汽車。

  • In networking, we see favorable trends with continued share gains and growth in the WiFi infrastructure opportunity across enterprise, retail and carriers. And we launched the world's first draft 802.11ax carrier gateway, which started shipping in March in KDDI and NEC.

    在網路領域,我們看到有利的趨勢,WiFi 基礎設施在企業、零售和營運商等領域的市場份額持續成長,市場機會不斷擴大。我們推出了全球首款 802.11ax 營運商網關草案,該產品已於 3 月開始在 KDDI 和 NEC 出貨。

  • In summary, we are well positioned to grow in our adjacent opportunities of auto, IoT, networking and compute as we leverage our core competencies to gain share in these emerging areas.

    總而言之,我們已做好充分準備,在汽車、物聯網、網路和運算等相關領域抓住機遇,利用我們的核心競爭力在這些新興領域獲得市場份額。

  • In November 2017, we announced a global framework for licensing Qualcomm's standard essential patents at an effective rate of 3.25%, covering multimode devices inclusive of 5G Release 15 standards. We also recently set the selling price cap for a handset at $400 for all licensees. This global rate is consistent with the SEP-only licensing program we successfully established in China since 2015, which has resulted in over 120 agreements for 3G and 4G devices.

    2017 年 11 月,我們宣布了高通標準必要專利的全球授權框架,有效費率為 3.25%,涵蓋包括 5G Release 15 標準在內的多模設備。我們最近也對所有授權用戶的手機售價上限設定為 400 美元。這一全球速度與我們自 2015 年以來在中國成功建立的僅 SEP 許可計劃相一致,該計劃已促成 120 多項 3G 和 4G 設備協議。

  • We are now in negotiations for license extensions under the new program announced in November that include rights to our 5G patents and expect to conclude a number of agreements in Q3. The transparency of our worldwide SEP-only licensing program, including announced rates for 5G Release 15, facilitates the effort to conclude agreements and extensions in 2018 and early 2019, providing for a seamless transition for the launch of 5G devices in 2019.

    我們目前正在就 11 月宣布的新計劃下的許可延期進行談判,其中包括我們 5G 專利的權利,並預計將在第三季達成多項協議。我們全球僅 SEP 許可計劃的透明度,包括 5G Release 15 的公佈費率,有助於在 2018 年和 2019 年初達成協議和延期,從而為 2019 年 5G 設備的推出提供無縫過渡。

  • Longer term, we believe this SEP-only licensing program enhances the stability of QTL with extended contract terms that incorporate 5G pricing. While execution of new agreements with existing handset licensees will create some near-term revenue impact in QTL, they are consistent with our assumptions that we set for fiscal year 2019 EPS targets.

    從長遠來看,我們相信這種僅 SEP 許可計劃通過延長合約期限並納入 5G 定價,增強了 QTL 的穩定性。雖然與現有手機授權商執行新協議會在短期內對 QTL 的收入產生一些影響,但這與我們為 2019 財年 EPS 目標設定的假設是一致的。

  • Looking ahead, we are focused on executing on our strategy to deliver our fiscal 2019 earnings per share targets. We have identified a number of specific strategic areas as part of that plan, and we will be updating you on our ongoing progress.

    展望未來,我們將專注於執行我們的策略,以實現 2019 財年每股收益目標。作為該計劃的一部分,我們確定了一些具體的策略領域,我們將隨時向您報告我們的進度。

  • First, we continue to focus on closing the NXP transaction. As we announced last week, at the request of MOFCOM, we withdrew and refiled our application for Chinese regulatory approval. We also agreed with NXP to extend the purchase agreement to July 25.

    首先,我們將繼續專注於完成對恩智浦的交易。正如我們上周宣布的那樣,應商務部要求,我們撤回並重新提交了中國監管部門的審批申請。我們也與恩智浦達成協議,將採購協議延長至7月25日。

  • While we continue to work closely with the Chinese regulators and remain optimistic about getting the necessary regulatory approvals there, it is clear that the geopolitical environment and trade actions are having an impact on the approval process. However, we continue to expect to ultimately receive approval in China, as we have in each of the other eight jurisdictions that have conducted a review, and we remain committed to the transaction.

    儘管我們繼續與中國監管機構密切合作,並對獲得必要的監管批准保持樂觀,但很明顯,地緣政治環境和貿易行動正在對審批過程產生影響。然而,我們仍然期望最終能在中國獲得批准,就像我們在其他八個已進行審查的司法管轄區一樣,我們仍然致力於完成這項交易。

  • Second, we continue to work to resolve our two licensing disputes. Apple initiated legal proceedings against Qualcomm more than a year ago. We have vigorously defended our position. The legal process continues to move forward along the time lines we previously discussed and should converge toward multiple important milestones later this year. In addition, our breach of contract case against Apple's contract manufacturers and our claim against Apple for interfering with those contracts is on schedule to be prepared for trial setting by the end of the year.

    其次,我們將繼續努力解決我們之間的兩起許可糾紛。蘋果公司一年多前就對高通提起了法律訴訟。我們堅決捍衛了我們的立場。法律程序正按照我們之前討論的時間表繼續推進,並應在今年稍後取得多個重要里程碑。此外,我們針對蘋果代工廠商提起的違約訴訟以及針對蘋果公司乾預這些合約的索賠,均按計劃準備,將於年底前開庭審理。

  • As the legal cases progress, we continue to -- our direct engagement with Apple and prefer to ultimately reach a negotiated settlement. Regarding our other dispute with a large licensee, we are in discussions toward a negotiated resolution, and those discussions are very active.

    隨著法律案件的進展,我們將繼續與蘋果直接溝通,並希望最終能達成和解。關於我們與一家大型被授權人的另一項糾紛,我們正在就協商解決進行磋商,磋商進展非常順利。

  • Third, we are progressing on our previously announced plan to reduce our spending by $1 billion. We have made good progress on this commitment, taking steps to reduce spending across SG&A and R&D. We are also focused on spending reductions in our noncore product areas.

    第三,我們正在推進先前宣布的削減10億美元開支的計畫。我們在履行這項承諾方面取得了良好進展,採取措施減少銷售、管理及行政費用和研發支出。我們也致力於削減非核心產品領域的支出。

  • Fourth, we are executing our product road map and continue to make the investments necessary to maintain our technology and product leadership, lead the industry to 5G and grow our adjacent areas across the RF front end, automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute.

    第四,我們正在執行產品路線圖,並繼續進行必要的投資,以保持我們的技術和產品領先地位,引領產業邁向 5G,並在射頻前端、汽車、物聯網、網路和行動運算等相關領域發展壯大。

  • In closing, we are pleased to report strong results this quarter, and we remain 100% focused on delivering on our fiscal 2019 commitments and creating that value for stockholders. We look forward to continue to update you on our progress.

    最後,我們很高興地報告本季業績強勁,我們將繼續全力以赴履行 2019 財年的承諾,並為股東創造價值。我們期待繼續向您報告我們的進展。

  • I now turn the call over to George.

    現在我把電話交給喬治。

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Our fiscal second quarter results were above the midpoint of our guidance with revenues of $5.3 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.80 per share, $0.10 above the midpoint of our guidance. The non-GAAP EPS outperformance in the quarter was driven by higher MSM shipments, improved gross margins in QCT, a more favorable tax rate from lower domestic versus foreign earnings and lower operating expenses.

    謝謝你,史蒂夫,大家下午好。我們第二財季的業績高於預期中位數,營收達 53 億美元,非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.80 美元,比預期中位數高出 0.10 美元。本季非GAAP每股盈餘超預期表現主要得益於MSM出貨量增加、QCT毛利率提高、國內收益低於國外收益帶來的更有利的稅率以及營運費用降低。

  • In QCT, MSM chip shipments were 187 million, towards the high end of our guidance range. QCT revenues were $3.9 billion, in line with expectations. As we expected, QCT results this quarter reflected the normal seasonal effects of lower demand typical in the calendar first quarter, a reduction in orders sequentially from a large modem customer and reduced demand from customers in China as they reduced inventory balances.

    在 QCT,MSM 晶片出貨量為 1.87 億,接近我們預期範圍的高階。QCT營收為39億美元,符合預期。正如我們預期的那樣,QCT 本季的業績反映了正常的季節性影響,包括日曆年第一季典型的需求下降、來自大型調變解調器客戶的訂單環比減少,以及由於中國客戶減少了庫存餘額,導致需求下降。

  • As a result, we saw handset inventory balances in China come down in line with long-term trends. While we remain conservative on demand for the second half of the year, we think the lower level of inventory is a very healthy development.

    因此,我們看到中國手機庫存餘額下降,這與長期趨勢相符。儘管我們對下半年的需求仍持保守態度,但我們認為庫存水準降低是一個非常健康的趨勢。

  • QCT's earnings before tax was up 28% year-over-year, the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth. QCT EBT margin was 16%, above the high end of our guidance range, reflecting stronger-than-expected gross margins in mobile, primarily in product cost benefits, including some discrete benefits related to conclusion of negotiations with a supplier.

    QCT稅前利潤年增28%,連續第八個季度實現年增。QCT EBT 利潤率為 16%,高於我們預期範圍的上限,反映出行動業務的毛利率強於預期,主要得益於產品成本優勢,包括與供應商談判達成後的一些特殊收益。

  • QTL fiscal second quarter revenues were $1.26 billion, slightly above the midpoint of guidance and included a modestly higher amount of out-of-period catch-up than we anticipated, offset by lower-than-expected 3G/4G units reported by licensees for the December quarter, particularly in the emerging regions.

    QTL 財年第二季營收為 12.6 億美元,略高於預期中位數,其中包括比預期略高的期外追趕收入,但被授權人在 12 月季度報告的 3G/4G 設備數量低於預期所抵消,尤其是在新興地區。

  • Note that these results exclude royalty revenues on Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute. It is also worth noting that in the December quarter, we continue to see strong year-over-year trends in global 3G/4G handset ASPs across various price levels. We have seen significantly higher run rate spending this year driven by litigation matters related to Apple and the FTC.

    請注意,這些結果不包括蘋果公司產品和另一爭議被授權者的特許權使用費收入。值得注意的是,在 12 月季度,我們繼續看到全球 3G/4G 手機平均售價在各個價格水準上都呈現強勁的同比趨勢。今年,由於與蘋果公司和聯邦貿易委員會相關的訴訟事宜,我們看到支出水準顯著提高。

  • In the second fiscal quarter, we spent approximately $125 million on these cases and expect that to ramp further in Q3. Spending is somewhat more heavily weighted in the second half of our fiscal year, in line with broad-based discovery activities and the timing of IP cases globally. We will provide information on our OpEx both with and without excess litigation so that the underlying cost structure changes are more visible.

    在第二財季,我們為此類案件花費了約 1.25 億美元,預計第三季這一數字將進一步增加。由於全球廣泛的調查活動和智慧財產權案件的時間安排,我們的財政年度下半年支出佔比略高。我們將提供包含和不包含額外訴訟的營運支出信息,以便更清楚地了解潛在的成本結構變化。

  • QTL earnings before tax was $850 million or 67% of revenues, above the midpoint of expectations or 78% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense.

    QTL 稅前利潤為 8.5 億美元,佔收入的 67%,高於預期中位數;如果扣除特殊的訴訟費用,則為 78%。

  • For Qualcomm overall, non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses decreased approximately 2% sequentially or down 4% if you adjust for extraordinary litigation expense.

    就高通公司整體而言,非GAAP合併研發及銷售、管理及行政費用較上月下降約2%,若扣除非常規訴訟費用,則下降4%。

  • We began implementing our $1 billion cost plan that will accelerate in the latter part of the year. In Q2, we booked restructuring and related charges under the cost plan of $310 million or $0.18 per share. These items were excluded from non-GAAP results. It is important to note that these initiatives will not impact our strong investment in 5G and our commitment to grow in mobile, RFFE, IoT, automotive, networking and mobile compute.

    我們已開始實施10億美元的成本控制計劃,該計劃將在今年下半年加速推進。第二季度,我們根據成本計劃提列了 3.1 億美元(即每股 0.18 美元)的重組及相關費用。這些項目已從非GAAP結果中剔除。值得注意的是,這些舉措不會影響我們對 5G 的大力投資,也不會影響我們在行動、射頻前端、物聯網、汽車、網路和行動運算領域的發展承諾。

  • Our non-GAAP effective tax rate during the fiscal second quarter was 4%, favorable relative to our prior guidance due to the catch-up associated with a lower estimated annual effective tax rate on lower domestic versus foreign earnings mix. We ended the quarter with cash and marketable securities of $39.6 billion or $16.5 billion net of outstanding debt.

    我們第二財季的非GAAP實際稅率為4%,這優於我們先前的預期,原因是國內收益與國外收益比例下降導致預計年度實際稅率降低,從而產生了追趕效應。本季末,我們持有現金及有價證券396億美元,扣除未償債務後淨額為165億美元。

  • Turning to our financial guidance for the fiscal third quarter. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.75 per share. Our guidance incorporates a relatively balanced mix of positive and negative factors in the quarter with tax benefits related to potential restructuring opportunities under tax reform offsetting the impacts of initial plan changes in our licensing program, higher litigation cost in the quarter and approximately $0.03 of expected ZTE order effects across the company.

    接下來談談我們對第三財季的財務預期。我們預計收入將在 48 億美元至 56 億美元之間,非 GAAP 每股收益將在 0.65 美元至 0.75 美元之間。我們的業績指引包含了本季度相對平衡的積極和消極因素,其中與稅收改革下的潛在重組機會相關的稅收優惠抵消了許可計劃初始變更的影響、本季度更高的訴訟成本以及中興通訊訂單對公司造成的約 0.03 美元的預期影響。

  • In QTL, we're expecting QTL fiscal third quarter revenues of approximately $950 million at the midpoint, down sequentially approximately $300 million. This outlook reflects 3 primary issues.

    QTL方面,我們預期QTL第三財季的營收中位數為9.5億美元左右,比上一季下降約3億美元。這種觀點反映了三個主要問題。

  • First, about half of the sequential decline reflects the combined impact of a seasonally low quarter, along with generally weak industry conditions, along with approximately $40 million in higher onetime catch-up payments in Q2 relative to our outlook for Q3.

    首先,環比下降約一半反映了季節性低迷季度、行業整體疲軟以及第二季度約 4000 萬美元的一次性補繳款項相對於我們對第三季度的預期所造成的綜合影響。

  • Second, we have begun to recognize this quarter the impact related to the recent amendments to our Samsung licensing agreement, including the effects of the expanded cross-license agreement.

    第二,本季我們已經開始意識到最近對三星授權協議的修訂所帶來的影響,包括擴大交叉授權協議的影響。

  • And third, we are seeing the initial run rate impact of the licensing SEP-only framework, including 5G, that Steve described earlier.

    第三,我們看到了史蒂夫之前描述的僅採用 SEP 許可框架(包括 5G)的初始運行率影響。

  • Slightly less than half of the sequential impact on revenue is from the changes to the Samsung agreement and other licensing program terms. I should note that we've also implemented a voluntary revised cap in which the maximum net selling price of a handset on which the royalty is based will be capped at $400 per device, down from $500 per device. This will be broadly implemented in fiscal Q4, and we do not expect a material impact overall.

    對營收的環比影響略低於一半,這主要歸因於三星協議和其他授權計畫條款的變更。需要指出的是,我們還實施了一項自願修訂的上限,其中,作為版稅計算依據的手機最高淨售價將限制在每台設備 400 美元,低於之前的每台設備 500 美元。這項措施將在第四財季全面實施,我們預計整體上不會產生重大影響。

  • We expect QTL EBT margin to be approximately 50% to 54% in the fiscal third quarter, down sequentially at the midpoint on lower revenues and increased litigation cost. Without the extraordinary litigation expenses, QTL EBT margin expectations would be approximately 65% to 69%.

    我們預計 QTL 第三財季的 EBT 利潤率約為 50% 至 54%,由於收入下降和訴訟成本增加,環比下降(取中間值)。如果沒有巨額訴訟費用,QTL 的 EBT 利潤率預期約為 65% 至 69%。

  • Turning to QCT. We anticipate MSM shipments of approximately 185 million to 205 million units during the June quarter, higher sequentially at the midpoint on increased demand in China as inventory improved in the last 2 months of the fiscal second quarter. We expect QCT's fiscal third quarter EBT margin to be approximately 13% to 15%, down sequentially, primarily due to seasonally weaker product mix, including lower thin modem shipments and the absence of the discrete product cost benefit in Q2.

    轉向QCT。我們預計 6 月份季度 MSM 出貨量約為 1.85 億至 2.05 億件,由於中國需求增加,且第二財季最後兩個月庫存有所改善,因此預計上一季度出貨量將比上一季度有所增長(取中間值)。我們預期 QCT 第三財季 EBT 利潤率約為 13% 至 15%,較上季下降,主要原因是季節性產品組合疲軟,包括薄型調變解調器出貨量減少以及第二季獨立產品成本優勢的消失。

  • We expect fiscal third quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be roughly flat to up approximately 2% sequentially, primarily due to increased litigation expenses as we continue to defend our business model, somewhat mitigated by the impacts of our cost efforts. Excluding the elevated litigation cost, we estimate that our non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses would otherwise be down approximately 1%.

    我們預計第三財季非GAAP綜合研發和銷售、管理及行政費用將與上一財季基本持平或環比增長約2%,主要原因是我們在繼續捍衛自身商業模式的過程中訴訟費用增加,而我們的成本控制措施在一定程度上緩解了這一影響。撇開訴訟成本上升不談,我們估計,以非GAAP計算的研發及銷售、管理及行政費用合併後,原本會下降約1%。

  • Non-GAAP interest expense, net of investment income in the fiscal third quarter, is expected to be roughly flat sequentially.

    預計第三財季非GAAP利息支出(扣除投資收益後)將與上一財季基本持平。

  • Turning to tax matters. As a result of the recent tax legislation enacted in the U.S., we anticipate implementing certain restructuring options that will reduce our current year tax rate and have been factored into our fiscal third quarter guidance.

    接下來談談稅務問題。由於美國最近頒布的稅收立法,我們預計將實施一些重組方案,以降低我們本年度的稅率,這些方案已納入我們第三財季的業績預期。

  • As a result, we expect our non-GAAP effective tax rate for the fiscal third quarter to be a benefit of approximately 20% to 25%, which we expect to provide a benefit to non-GAAP EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 per share.

    因此,我們預計第三財季的非GAAP有效稅率將帶來約20%至25%的收益,預計將使非GAAP每股收益增加0.10至0.15美元。

  • Regarding our 3G/4G device shipment forecast, we are updating our unit estimates for calendar year global device shipments for both 2017 and 2018. For calendar year 2017, we now estimate approximately 1.755 billion global 3G/4G devices shipped, up approximately 3% year-over-year, at the low end of our prior estimates, primarily due to lengthening replacement rates in North America and China in the fourth calendar quarter.

    關於我們的 3G/4G 設備出貨量預測,我們正在更新 2017 年和 2018 年日曆年全球設備出貨量單位估算。我們現在估計,2017 年全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量約為 17.55 億台,年成長約 3%,處於我們先前估計的下限,這主要是由於北美和中國在第四季度延長了設備更換週期。

  • For calendar year 2018, we now estimate approximately 1.8 billion to 1.9 billion global 3G/4G device shipments or growth of approximately 5% year-over-year. This is lower from our prior estimate by 50 million units at the midpoint, reflecting a lower 2017 base as well as reduced demand expected in China. Within this population, handset growth is expected to be approximately 3% year-over-year.

    我們現在估計,2018 年全球 3G/4G 設備出貨量約為 18 億至 19 億部,年增約 5%。這比我們先前的估計值低了 5,000 萬輛(中位數),反映出 2017 年的基數較低,以及預計中國的需求減少。在該族群中,手機銷量預計將年增約 3%。

  • With respect to global 3G/4G device sales for fiscal 2018, we now expect growth of approximately 10% year-over-year at the midpoint as the reduction in our estimate of global 3G/4G units in the year is expected to be more than offset by strength in ASPs. Within this population, 3G/4G global handset sales are expected to grow a similar percentage in fiscal 2018 driven primarily by strength in handset ASPs year-over-year.

    關於 2018 財年全球 3G/4G 設備銷量,我們現在預計同比增長約 10%(取中間值),因為我們預計當年全球 3G/4G 設備銷量的下調將被平均售價的強勁增長所抵消。在這一群體中,預計 2018 財年 3G/4G 全球手機銷量將以類似的百分比增長,這主要得益於手機平均售價同比走強。

  • I will provide some additional color on our committed 2019 targets. As I noted earlier, we are making good progress on the $1 billion cost plan. This is a critical element of our $5.25 non-GAAP EPS target, along with closing NXP or alternatively, moving ahead with our option to repurchase stock.

    我將進一步闡述我們2019年所設定的目標。正如我之前提到的,我們在10億美元的成本計劃方面取得了良好進展。這是我們實現 5.25 美元非 GAAP 每股盈餘目標的關鍵要素,此外還包括完成對 NXP 的收購,或推進我們的股票回購選擇權。

  • For our licensing business, the 5G royalty rates, the reduced NSP cap and the effects of the amended long-term Samsung license agreement were all factored into our fiscal 2019 guidance. Taking into consideration these items and the expectation of continued growth in global 3G/4G handset sales in fiscal 2019, we expect QTL quarterly revenues in the near and medium term to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.1 billion on average, excluding the royalties from Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute.

    對於我們的授權業務,5G 特許權使用費率、降低的 NSP 上限以及修訂後的三星長期授權協議的影響都已納入我們 2019 財年的業績預期。考慮到這些因素以及對 2019 財年全球 3G/4G 手機銷量持續增長的預期,我們預計 QTL 在近期和中期內的季度收入平均將在 10 億美元至 11 億美元之間,不包括來自蘋果產品和其他有爭議的被許可方的特許權使用費。

  • Of course, the amount in any one quarter will be subject to seasonal fluctuations, OEM mix, out-of-period catch-up amounts and continued progress on the licensing and compliance front, among other factors.

    當然,任何一個季度的金額都會受到季節性波動、OEM 組合、非當期補繳金額以及許可和合規方面的持續進展等因素的影響。

  • In QCT, we expect that fiscal 2019 performance will benefit from continued handset growth, particularly in emerging regions; continued strength in our China share in the mid, high and premium tiers; and growth in adjacent opportunities, including automotive, IoT, networking and mobile compute.

    在QCT,我們預計2019財年的業績將受益於手機的持續成長,尤其是在新興地區;我們在中國中高階市場份額的持續強勁成長;以及汽車、物聯網、網路和行動運算等相關領域的成長。

  • That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.

    我的發言到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給約翰。

  • John Sinnott - VP of IR

    John Sinnott - VP of IR

  • Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.

    謝謝你,喬治。接線員,我們已準備好回答您的問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Tal Liani with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的塔爾·利亞尼。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • Can you repeat the reasons for the weak QTL guidance for next quarter? And how does it change going forward, especially what happens with Release 15 licensing? What I didn't understand is, so far -- and maybe it's just my understanding. So far, your license covered all the patents and clients had to pay regardless of what patent they are using. Does it mean that LTE licensing is separate? And is the royalty rate for LTE licensing different, lower than the general licensing rate?

    能否再次說明下季業績預期疲軟的原因?那麼未來又將如何改變呢?特別是 Release 15 的授權方面又會發生什麼變化?我不明白的是,到目前為止——也許這只是我的理解問題。到目前為止,您的許可涵蓋了所有專利,客戶無論使用哪項專利都必須付費。這是否意味著LTE牌照是單獨發放的?LTE授權的版稅率是否與一般授權的版稅率不同,是否更低?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • So what I'll do, Tal, this is George. I'll cover the questions on the bridge and then maybe Alex can talk a little bit about the structure of the SEP-only program. So if you look at the sequential bridge, the product -- we said that it's down about $300 million. Some of that is the normal seasonal drop-off that we get because this -- remember, we're reporting on a lag. So this is calendar Q1 activities. This is where we saw the significant pullback in demand across -- for devices in general. So we have a weak market. We also have the pullback from a -- that's just natural with Q1. The other piece is, we also had some higher onetime amounts in Q2 than we're reporting in Q3. So that's about a little more than half of the $300 million. The other half is the changes that we talked about, reflecting both the amendment to the Samsung agreement which, among other things, includes the cross-license rights that are quite extensive and the changes that we anticipate to see in the quarter to contracts for licensees that will take an SEP-only license, which has a number of favorable characteristics that I'm sure Alex will cover.

    塔爾,我接下來要說的是,這位是喬治。我會解答橋牌上的問題,然後也許 Alex 可以稍微談談僅限 SEP 課程的結構。所以,如果你看一下順序橋,該產品——我們說它下降了大約 3 億美元。其中一部分是正常的季節性下降,因為——記住,我們報告的是滯後數據。這是第一季的活動安排表。正是在這裡,我們看到了設備整體需求的大幅下降。所以我們現在的市場疲軟。我們也會看到從 a 開始的回調——這對 Q1 來說很自然。另一方面,我們第二季的一些一次性支出也高於第三季報告的金額。所以這大約是3億美元的一半多一點。另一半是我們討論過的變化,這反映了三星協議的修訂,該修訂除其他事項外,還包括相當廣泛的交叉許可權,以及我們預計在本季度將看到的針對僅獲得標準必要專利許可的被許可方的合同的變化,這種許可具有許多有利的特點,我相信 Alex 會詳細介紹。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • So this is Alex. Picking up where George left off. Just a little bit of context, I think, is helpful. Since 2015, we established a very successful licensing program in China for SEP licenses for 3G and 4G through Release 11 at a set of rates that came out of the resolution of the China matter. And what we've done and what we announced in November of 2017 is that we are extending that set of rates to a worldwide program for SEP-only licensing for 3G and 4G with the remaining releases, also to include the first release of 5G, where the standard -- the specification was finalized in December of last year. That is our SEP-only licensing program going forward. Of course, we still have a portfolio-wide licensing program at the standard rate of 5%. But we expect, on a go-forward basis, that there'll be a number of licensees who are interested in extensions and renewals who may want to have SEP-only license agreements. And of course, we'll negotiate those sorts of agreements. And we expect that there'll be a few of those agreements being reached even in this quarter. So the program is rooted in a very successful program that came out of China with over 120 license agreements. We expect this program to be successful and to facilitate a very good transition to 5G in the second half of '19. We expect there'll be a number of licensees who want to maintain portfolio-wide agreements worldwide. But there will also be licensees who want to have SEP-only agreements on a worldwide basis. And that is, of course, something that we can accommodate on a case-by-case basis.

    這位是亞歷克斯。接替喬治的工作。我認為提供一些背景資訊會有幫助。自 2015 年以來,我們在中國建立了一個非常成功的 3G 和 4G SEP 許可證許可計劃,直至 Release 11,其費率是根據解決中國問題而製定的。我們在 2017 年 11 月宣布的舉措是,我們將把這套費率擴展到全球範圍內的 3G 和 4G SEP 許可計劃,以及後續版本,包括 5G 的第一個版本,該標準——規範已於去年 12 月最終確定。這就是我們今後僅採用標準必要專利(SEP)授權的方案。當然,我們仍然保留著一個涵蓋所有產品的授權許可計劃,標準費率為 5%。但我們預計,未來會有許多被授權者對延期和續約感興趣,他們可能希望只簽訂 SEP 授權協議。當然,我們會就這類協議進行談判。我們預計,即使在本季度,也會達成一些這樣的協議。因此,該計劃源自於中國一個非常成功的計劃,該計劃擁有超過 120 項許可協議。我們預計該計劃將取得成功,並有助於在 2019 年下半年順利過渡到 5G。我們預計會有許多被授權者希望在全球範圍內維持涵蓋所有產品的協議。但也會有一些被授權者希望在全球範圍內簽訂僅包含標準必要專利的協議。當然,我們可以根據具體情況予以考慮。

  • Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

    Tal Liani - MD and Head of Technology Supersector

  • And I apologize if I -- if it sounds stupid, but would you mind to discuss what does it mean SEP only?

    如果我的問題聽起來很愚蠢,我深表歉意,但您能否討論一下「僅限 SEP」是什麼意思?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • No problem, standard essential patents. So our standard essential patents that have been declared for 3G/4G and the first 5G standard. Those patents as distinguished from nonessential patents, implementation patents, other patents that are relevant to other standards other than cellular standards. So when we refer to SEPs, we're referring generally to cellular standard essential patents for the technology generations that we all understand to be 3, 4 and 5G.

    沒問題,都是標準必要專利。因此,我們已聲明的3G/4G和首個5G標準的基本專利。這些專利與非必要專利、實施專利以及與蜂窩標準以外的其他標準相關的其他專利有所區別。所以,當我們提到 SEP 時,我們通常指的是 3G、4G 和 5G 這幾代技術的蜂窩標準必要專利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from Chris Caso with Raymond James.

    下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Chris Caso。

  • Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

    Christopher Caso - Research Analyst

  • Just a follow-up on the previous discussion a little bit. With regard to the fiscal '19 guidance, you talked about that this new licensing scheme was included in that. Could you walk us through a bit of how you get to that fiscal '19 EPS guidance? What are the puts and takes there and how this new licensing scheme falls into that as well?

    稍微補充一下之前的討論。關於 2019 財年的業績指引,您曾提到這項新的許可證制度也包含在其中。能否簡單介紹一下您是如何得出 2019 財年每股收益預期的?這其中有哪些利弊?新的許可製度又將如何融入其中?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes. This is George, Chris. The $5.25 base, as we said, included approximately $1.50 from NXP accretion. It included the benefit of $1 billion in the year of OpEx reduction. And then it had the underlying run rate of the business, absent the Apple license payments, new Apple business that we presume would be held up as part of the process of the litigation. And so we said to help people model, we indicated in my script that for modeling the levels of licensing revenue, excluding Apple and the other licensee, you can plan on, on average, between $1 billion and $1.1 billion per quarter. Obviously, that can fluctuate a little bit depending on some of the onetime items that show up or the strength of the market overall changing. We think that's a reasonable number. The balance of that then is going to be driven by fundamentally, the performance of the QCT mobile business and the adjacent business is a part of that. And I think the $5.25 is consistent with the basic position we have in QCT today and continued growth in the adjacent.

    是的。這是喬治,克里斯。正如我們所說,5.25 美元的基礎股價包含了 NXP 帶來的約 1.50 美元收益。其中包括營運支出減少一年內節省的 10 億美元。然後,如果沒有蘋果授權費,公司的基本營運速度就會受到影響,我們推測,蘋果的新業務會因為訴訟過程而停滯不前。因此,為了幫助人們建立模型,我們在我的腳本中指出,在模擬授權收入水準時,不包括蘋果和其他授權方,您可以預期平均每季營收在 10 億美元到 11 億美元之間。顯然,這種情況可能會根據一些一次性商品的出現或整體市場強弱的變化而略有波動。我們認為這是一個合理的數字。因此,這種平衡從根本上將取決於 QCT 行動業務的業績,而相關業務也是其中的一部分。我認為 5.25 美元的價格與我們目前對 QCT 的基本定位以及鄰近業務的持續成長是一致的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

  • Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Thomas Michael Walkley - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just for the $5.25 and guidance for that out-year. Can you walk us through maybe what you expect for QCT in terms of margin targets that you expect to hit as the cost reductions come out of the business model implied in that guidance? And then also for the $5.25, what is management's plan should China continue to block NXP? When do you finally just pull the plug? And is the buyback really the best thing to do with that cash to get to that $5.25?

    僅僅為了那5.25美元和未來一年的指導。您能否為我們詳細介紹一下,隨著成本削減措施的實施,您在QCT的利潤率目標方面,預期能夠達到什麼水準?這些成本削減措施是根據該指導方針中隱含的商業模式製定的。另外,對於每股 5.25 美元的股價,如果中國繼續封鎖恩智浦半導體,管理階層有什麼計畫?什麼時候才會徹底放棄?用這筆現金回購股票真的是達到 5.25 美元目標價的最佳方法嗎?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes. We haven't put out margin targets for QCT. Obviously, we've said that we expect to get to our long-term margin target of greater than 20% over time. And certainly, you would expect to see that as part of the kind of recovery case that the $6.75 to $7.50 envisions, where we start to get some product business back that was taken away and also probably additional RF front end business as part of that. So I think, overall, the $5.25 is really just a continuation for QCT of their current position, strength in China, strength in the premium tier, which has been a positive relative to what we've seen with the falloff in the thin modem business and then growth in the adjacent.

    是的。我們沒有公佈QCT的利潤率目標。顯然,我們已經說過,我們預計隨著時間的推移,我們將達到超過 20% 的長期利潤率目標。當然,你會期望看到這種情況出現在 6.75 美元到 7.50 美元的復甦計劃中,該計劃旨在重新獲得一些被奪走的產品業務,並且可能還會獲得額外的射頻前端業務。所以我認為,總的來說,5.25 美元的價格實際上只是 QCT 目前地位的延續,即在中國市場的優勢,以及在高端市場的優勢,這相對於我們看到的超薄調製解調器業務下滑和相鄰業務增長的情況來說是一個積極的信號。

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

  • Mike, this is Steve. Maybe on your question related to NXP. There was probably a point in the -- as I understand, in the audio where people couldn't hear my comments related to NXP. But in short, what I said was that we continue to work closely with China. The environment is obviously quite difficult from a geopolitical point of view, at least right now. However, we expect to ultimately receive approval. And I'll just remind folks that we have 8 of 9 jurisdictions that have already ruled on it. So although we -- we remain committed to it. And we think it's going to get done. However, if it does not get done, as you mentioned, we think we have the ability to move very rapidly on a buyback as we communicated earlier in the January time frame. I'll just remind everyone that we did a 90-day extension to the merger agreement. And we're going to work very hard to get that done. And if it doesn't get done, we're going to move on to another approach. So hopefully, that answers the question.

    麥克,我是史蒂夫。或許這與你問的NXP相關。據我了解,音訊中可能有一段時間,人們聽不到我關於 NXP 的評論。但簡而言之,我所說的是,我們將繼續與中國密切合作。從地緣政治角度來看,當前的環境顯然相當艱難,至少目前是如此。但是,我們預計最終會獲得批准。我還要提醒大家,9 個司法管轄區中有 8 個已經對此作出了裁決。所以儘管我們——我們仍然致力於此。我們認為這件事一定會成功。但是,如果這件事沒有完成,正如您所提到的,我們認為我們有能力非常迅速地進行股票回購,正如我們在1月份早些時候所溝通的那樣。我只想提醒大家,我們已將合併協議延長了 90 天。我們將竭盡全力完成這項任務。如果這個方法行不通,我們將採取另一種方法。希望這能解答你的疑問。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Amit Daryanani。

  • Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

    Amit Jawaharlaz Daryanani - Analyst

  • I guess, Steve, maybe just a follow-up on the line you had earlier. Is July 25 sort of the drop-dead deadline where if this is not done by then you will move to plan B, i.e., buybacks? Or would you just extend the merger agreement further? And then any sense on what the MOFCOM issues are or what remedies they want above and beyond what you agreed to in other jurisdictions?

    我想,史蒂夫,也許只是你之前那句話的後續補充。7月25日是不是最後期限?如果到那時還沒完成,你們是不是就要啟動B計劃,也就是股票回購?還是您會選擇進一步延長合併協議?那麼,商務部方面究竟有什麼問題,或者除了你在其他司法管轄區同意的措施之外,他們還希望得到哪些補救措施?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

  • Well, I'd say, Amit, with respect to the agreement, yes, we have just extended it by 90 days. So I think both companies are moving toward that time line. And we certainly have other ability and avenues to drive value. And that's sort of how we're thinking about the issue. Of course, things can always change as we move through the process, but that's the way that it's set up right now.

    嗯,阿米特,關於協議,是的,我們剛剛將其延長了 90 天。所以我認為兩家公司都在朝著這個時間表努力。當然,我們還有其他能力和途徑來創造價值。我們也是這樣思考這個問題的。當然,隨著流程的推進,情況隨時可能發生變化,但目前就是這樣安排的。

  • With respect to MOFCOM and remedies, our evaluation of the environment is such that really, I think the issue is probably more related to the higher-level discussions between the countries as opposed to any individual issue related to MOFCOM. Of course, we continue to work with the regulators and work through any issues that pop up. But I think the environmental issues between the countries are probably more the situation today than anything else. But obviously, we work closely with the regulator.

    關於商務部和補救措施,我們對當前環境的評估是,我認為這個問題可能更多地與各國之間的高層討論有關,而不是與商務部相關的任何具體問題。當然,我們會繼續與監管機構合作,並解決出現的任何問題。但我認為,目前兩國之間的環境問題可能比其他任何問題都更能說明問題。但很顯然,我們會與監管機構密切合作。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Tim Long with BMO Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Tim Long。

  • Timothy Patrick Long - Senior Equity Analyst

    Timothy Patrick Long - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just wanted to close out one more on the QTL part and then a question on the QCT piece. So Alex, for you, I just want to make sure I understand this. So the impact of the SEP only and 5G licenses, that's hitting revenues, is that because those deals will have a lower rate structure? Or is it because there's some kind of onetime impact of nonpayment as those deals are being negotiated? And then on the QCT side, units are holding up very well. I think you mentioned some ZTE hit in the quarter. You mentioned inventory reductions, but it's a pretty weak market in China. And I guess, we got a new set of iPhones coming out. And you guys have intimated that you potentially could do a little bit worse there or you're at least planning that you might not have as much share in that win. So could you just maybe -- is this predominantly market share that you think is keeping your numbers better, I'd say, than the end market for the last few quarters? That would be helpful.

    我只想再補充一個關於 QTL 部分的問題,然後再問一個關於 QCT 部分的問題。所以Alex,我只是想確認一下我是否理解了這一點。所以,SEP 和 5G 牌照對收入的影響,是因為這些交易的費率結構較低嗎?還是因為在談判過程中,如果出現一次性未付款的情況,就會產生某種影響?另外,QCT方面,各單位的表現都非常優秀。我想你曾提到中興通訊本季的一些業績下滑。你提到了減少庫存,但中國市場相當疲軟。我猜,我們會迎來一批新的iPhone。你們暗示過,你們在那次勝利中可能會表現得更糟,或者至少你們計劃著可能不會獲得那麼多的勝利份額。所以您能否簡單地說—您認為在過去幾個季度裡,市場份額是否比終端市場更能保證您的業績?那會很有幫助。

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Tim, this is George. Maybe I'll take the point on what is the impact that we're seeing from these changes. Again, what we said is, a little less than half of the $300 million is related to the -- what I would call the run rate changes associated with the amendments to the Samsung agreement that we announced last quarter and also the SEP only expected impacts that we expect to be in the run rate this quarter. So they -- it would be effectively a lower effective rate for those licensees than if they'd had a portfolio license prior to that time.

    蒂姆,這位是喬治。或許我可以談談這些改變對我們造成的影響。我們再次強調,3億美元中略少於一半與——我稱之為與我們上季度宣布的三星協議修正案相關的運行率變化有關——以及SEP僅預期影響,我們預計這些影響將在本季度的運行率中體現。因此,對於這些持牌人來說,實際有效費率會比他們之前持有投資組合許可證的情況要低。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • This is Alex. But I think it's important to note that, again, some licensees may choose to have an SEP-only agreement, including the 5G IP rights going forward. And they may choose to extend on that basis. But others will prefer a portfolio-wide agreement for obvious reasons. They enjoy the benefits of the entire portfolio and protected under the entire portfolio. And these are going to be determined on a case-by-case basis as we get into these negotiations, but we do believe that some licensees will choose SEP only on a worldwide basis.

    這是亞歷克斯。但我認為需要指出的是,一些被授權者可能會選擇僅簽訂標準必要專利協議,包括未來的 5G IP 權利。他們可能會選擇在此基礎上進行延期。但出於顯而易見的原因,其他人會更傾向於達成投資組合範圍內的協議。他們享受整個投資組合帶來的好處,並受到整個投資組合的保護。這些具體情況將在談判過程中逐案確定,但我們相信一些被授權者會選擇僅在全球範圍內使用 SEP。

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Hey, Tim, let me add one more thing, I think, before Cristiano comes in on some of the demand things, the demand environment for QCT. As I look at Q3, one of the difficult stories is because the -- we're seeing some -- this is the quarter where QCT is seeing some of the weakness in reports that we talked about because they report a month lag. So that would -- those are the weakness that QCT saw in Q2, but is seeing recovery in Q3. But we continue to see an underlying growth in the licensing market when you look at units and ASPs. If we just looked back to Q3 '17 and we looked at the market as -- for the licensees that are paying today and we look at today, the market has grown to the point where the -- essentially, the cost of these changes in the program on a run rate basis is being covered by the growth in the market because of the strength of both units and in particular, ASPs. Cristiano, do you want to?

    嘿,提姆,我想在克里斯蒂亞諾談到一些需求方面的問題之前,再補充一點,關於QCT的需求環境。展望第三季度,其中一個比較棘手的問題是——我們看到一些——QCT在本季度出現了一些我們之前討論過的疲軟跡象,因為他們的報告存在一個月的滯後。所以,這些就是 QCT 在第二季看到的弱點,但第三季正在復甦。但從銷售和平均售價來看,我們仍然可以看到授權市場的潛在成長。如果我們回顧 2017 年第三季度,看看市場——對於今天付費的授權用戶來說,市場已經增長到一定程度——基本上,由於銷量強勁,特別是平均售價 (ASP) 的增長,該計劃的這些變更在運行率方面的成本已被市場增長所覆蓋。克里斯蒂亞諾,你願意嗎?

  • Cristiano Renno Amon - President

    Cristiano Renno Amon - President

  • Yes. So on QCT, it's actually a simple story. Q2 has been a great quarter for us, particularly if you look compared to in our year-over-year. I think we saw continued strength in our product portfolio. As we look forward and that's -- I think George said that we chose to take a conservative approach. However, we do see that the inventory levels came down back to normal in China. So it's a story that we still -- we look at the units. We still think there is overall -- the drivers of our strength in China business continue. I think we see an improvement of mix. We see an improvement of handset ASPs. We have some interesting transitions ahead of us such as China Mobile recently got a license for FDD. We have 5G coming in '19. So I think the story is good. We're just dealing with how we think about the overall industry is in the second half. And we have seen a decline in thin modems, probably consistent with everybody else in the industry.

    是的。所以,在QCT上,這其實是一個簡單的故事。第二季度對我們來說是一個非常棒的季度,尤其是與去年同期相比。我認為我們的產品組合持續保持強勁勢頭。展望未來,我想喬治說過,我們選擇採取保守的做法。然而,我們看到中國的庫存水準已經恢復正常。所以,我們仍然要關注這個故事——我們還要看看這些單位。我們仍然認為整體而言——我們在中國業務的優勢驅動因素仍然存在。我認為我們看到了混合比例的改善。我們看到手機平均售價增加。我們未來將迎來一些有趣的變革,例如中國移動最近獲得了FDD牌照。5G將於2019年到來。所以我覺得這個故事不錯。我們現在討論的是我們對整個產業下半年發展趨勢的看法。我們看到超薄調變解調器的銷量下降,這可能與業內其他公司的情況一致。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

  • Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

    Stacy Aaron Rasgon - Senior Analyst

  • I just want to make sure I have this straight. So basically, you're folding 5G now into the licensing model. And you're getting paid less for it. And you're talking about it like it's a good thing. Why is this a good thing? Is this being proactive to halt the spread of other disputes? Or like what's the driving force behind doing this?

    我只是想確認一下我理解得是否正確。所以基本上,你們現在正在將 5G 納入授權模式。而且你的收入還更少。而你卻把它說得好像是一件好事一樣。為什麼這是好事?這是為了積極阻止其他爭端的蔓延嗎?或者說,做這件事背後的驅動力是什麼?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • Stacy, this is Alex. We're including 5G in the SEP-only licensing model. We're not getting paid less for it. I think the best way to think about this is building a foundation for long-term stability in QTL. The current program that we've announced for SEPs that we announced back in November has tremendous consistency with the program that we successfully established in China, coming out of the China investigation. We actually now have over 150 SEP-only licensees through the 3G and 4G program there. And in addition, with the announcement in November, ahead of the adoption of the first release of 5G, we have tremendous transparency for the program going forward. And so what we've done is we've purposely built the program to facilitate a transition to 5G in a way that successfully enables us to bring on new licensees and extend their agreements for longer terms. And so this creates tremendous stability. Now we do expect that the number of licensees will want to have portfolio-wide licenses. And so there's going to be a mix. But the effect of all of this has been considered in our FY '19 numbers. So we've looked at this and purposely built this program for stability long term.

    史黛西,這位是亞歷克斯。我們將 5G 納入了僅限 SEP 的授權模式。我們並沒有因此而少拿工資。我認為思考這個問題的最佳方式是為 QTL 的長期穩定性奠定基礎。我們去年 11 月宣布的針對標準必要專利 (SEP) 的現行計劃,與我們在中國成功建立的、源自中國調查的計劃有著極大的一致性。實際上,我們現在透過 3G 和 4G 專案擁有超過 150 家僅持有 SEP 許可證的企業。此外,隨著 5G 首個版本於 11 月發布,我們為該計劃的未來發展帶來了極大的透明度。因此,我們特意建構了該計劃,以促進向 5G 的過渡,從而成功地引入新的許可證持有者,並延長他們的協議期限。因此,這創造了極大的穩定性。現在我們預計,許多被授權者都希望獲得涵蓋整個產品組合的授權。所以一定會有多種組合。但所有這些影響都已在我們的 2019 財年數據中考慮。因此,我們研究了這個問題,並特意建立了這個程序,以確保其長期穩定性。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

    我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

  • James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

    James Eugene Faucette - Executive Director

  • I wanted to, I guess, follow up on that question or at least as it pertains to the unnamed licensee. I guess, with the new structure, how should we expect the impact to compliance and ability to assure compliance firstly? And secondly, I guess, I'm wondering a little bit why anybody would offer a portfolio-wide license, especially when from the time that you introduced the standard essential patent licensing program in China, you had indicated that negotiations around nonessential IP would be done separately. But I don't think we've really seen any movement there. So it seems like you're moving towards a standard essential patent only licensing program, and I'm wondering how we should expect you to be able to collect on nonessential IP and how this move may impact bringing the noncomplying unnamed licensee into compliance.

    我想就這個問題進行一些後續探討,或至少是與那位未具名的被授權人相關的問題。我想,在新架構下,我們應該如何預期其對合規性和確保合規能力的影響?其次,我有點好奇為什麼有人會提供涵蓋整個專利組合的許可,尤其是在您在中國推出標準必要專利許可計劃時,您就曾表示,關於非必要知識產權的談判將單獨進行。但我認為我們還沒有真正看到任何進展。看來你們正在朝著僅授予必要專利的標準許可計劃邁進,我想知道我們應該如何期望你們能夠收取非必要知識產權的費用,以及此舉可能會對促使不合規的未具名被許可人合規產生怎樣的影響。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • So with respect to the unnamed licensee, having a consistent program that's widely adopted is a very good thing from a comp perspective. So it actually creates an environment that enables us to essentially engage in the ongoing negotiations with that licensee from a position of strength, essentially saying that this is a widely adopted program. So that unnamed licensee is an outlier. In terms of SEP only and the rest of the portfolio, there are a number of licensees that don't have portfolio-wide agreements. And we'll continue with those portfolio-wide agreements. And we expect that to happen. As I said, it'll be a mix. The rest of the portfolio is still valuable. It's a very large portfolio. As you know, 130 patents and pending applications.

    因此,就未具名的被授權者而言,從競爭的角度來看,擁有一個被廣泛採用的一致方案是一件非常好的事情。因此,它實際上創造了一種環境,使我們能夠從優勢地位上與該被授權者進行持續談判,本質上是在表明這是一個被廣泛採用的方案。因此,這家未具名的被授權者是個異常值。就 SEP 本身以及整個產品組合而言,有許多被授權者沒有簽訂涵蓋整個產品組合的協議。我們將繼續推進這些涵蓋整個投資組合的協議。我們預計這種情況將會發生。正如我所說,會是混合的。投資組合中的其餘部分仍然有價值。這是一個非常龐大的投資組合。如您所知,我們擁有130項專利和正在申請的專利。

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • 130,000.

    130,000。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • 130,000 patents and pending applications. And that the value and strength of that portfolio, I think, is demonstrated in the assertions that we've had when we've had to have them, including against a company in China that signed up to a license and the assertions that we're making now in our litigation, where over 40 nonessential -- excuse me, over 50 nonessential patents are being asserted. So the rest of the portfolio is still valuable and licensees will still want to have portfolio-wide protection. In fact, we have many portfolio-wide agreements that will continue. It will be a mix.

    13萬項已獲授權專利和正在申請的專利。我認為,該專利組合的價值和實力體現在我們不得不採取的行動中,包括針對一家簽署許可協議的中國公司,以及我們現在在訴訟中採取的行動,其中涉及 40 多項非必要專利——抱歉,是 50 多項非必要專利。因此,其餘的投資組合仍然很有價值,被授權者仍然希望獲得投資組合範圍內的保護。事實上,我們有很多涵蓋整個投資組合的協議將繼續有效。將會是混合的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

    我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

  • Ross Clark Seymore - MD

    Ross Clark Seymore - MD

  • Just one question and one follow-up, so I guess 2 questions here. Just to wrap up the QTL side of things. Embedded in the $5.25 base and then the road towards $7, et cetera, in your 2019 goal, do you believe that the implied royalty rate that we had before of roughly 2.9% will be higher or lower given all the moving parts that you've described in today's call? And then the second question more for George, specifically on the OpEx cuts and the $1 billion number. Can you talk a little bit about the linearity of that? And when are we going to start to see some of those absolute dollars come out? And how important is that litigation that's currently elevated going back to some normalized level? How important is that in getting to the $1 billion annualized savings?

    只有一個問題和一個後續問題,所以這裡應該是兩個問題。最後總結一下 QTL 部分的內容。在您 2019 年的目標中,以 5.25 美元為基準,然後逐步提高到 7 美元等等,考慮到您在今天的電話會議中描述的所有不確定因素,您認為我們之前大約 2.9% 的隱含版稅率會更高還是更低?第二個問題更想問喬治,具體是關於營運支出削減和10億美元的數字。能稍微談談它的線性性質嗎?我們什麼時候才能看到這些真金白銀真正到帳?目前訴訟案件數量居高不下,恢復到正常水準究竟有多重要?這對於實現每年節省 10 億美元的目標有多重要?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Yes. Ross, this is George. So on the implied royalty rate, obviously, there's a lot of moving parts when you have 2 major licensees. One of which is reporting. One of which is not reporting. So it's really not a very meaningful number, which is why we have stopped guiding total reported device sales and some of these other items. We think the rates that are embedded in the SEP-only licenses are fully consistent, as we said, in the run rate that we had factored into the FY '19 numbers. As you remember, we actually announced the 5G program in last November. Also, they -- if you apply them to the volumes, the same standards to the volumes of the nonpaying licensees, you would very easily get to our $6.75 to $7.50 range. So I think that's the key point. And with respect to litigation normalization, the cost-reduction program expects to take out $1 billion in the run rate without relying on a change in the litigation run rate of the company. I would describe that as a peace dividend that would flow through post the resolution of the litigation matters.

    是的。羅斯,這位是喬治。因此,對於隱含版稅率而言,顯然,當您有兩個主要被授權者時,會有很多變數。其中之一就是報道。其中之一就是未報告。所以這個數字其實意義不大,這也是為什麼我們已經停止發佈設備總銷售量和其他一些項目的相關數據的原因。我們認為,SEP 專屬許可證中嵌入的費率與我們在 2019 財政年度資料中考慮的營運費率完全一致。您應該還記得,我們​​實際上是在去年11月宣布了5G計畫。此外,如果將這些標準應用於未付費授權用戶的銷量,那麼很容易就能達到我們 6.75 美元到 7.50 美元的區間。所以我認為這是關鍵。至於訴訟正常化,成本削減計畫預計在不改變公司訴訟發生率的情況下,將減少 10 億美元的訴訟支出。我會將其描述為訴訟問題解決後將帶來的和平紅利。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Equity.

    我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

  • Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

    Romit Jitendra Shah - Executive Director

  • I had 2 questions. One, George, just the litigation costs rising a little bit in June. Should we assume this level for litigation for the foreseeable future? That's the first question. The second question, I just wanted to ask about just the smartphone market overall and unit growth. You guys mentioned in your monologue that replacement rates are going out. When we saw this happen with PCs, unit growth actually went negative. And today, we're seeing weakness in smartphones that, for the most part, seems fairly broad-based. And I guess my question is, what makes you confident that this weakness we're seeing is just temporary and that the market overall can grow from here?

    我有兩個問題。第一,喬治,只是六月訴訟費用略有上漲。我們是否應該假設在可預見的未來,訴訟數量將維持在這個水準?這是第一個問題。第二個問題,我只想問一下智慧型手機市場的整體狀況和銷售成長情況。你們在獨白中提到,替換率正在下降。當我們在個人電腦上看到這種情況時,單位成長實際上變成了負數。而如今,我們看到智慧型手機市場普遍疲軟,而且這種疲軟似乎波及範圍相當廣泛。我想問的是,是什麼讓您確信我們目前看到的這種疲軟只是暫時的,並且整個市場能夠從此開始成長?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • So on the litigation pattern, we're in a period during this quarter, Q3, where we have very, very significant discovery processes and active preparation for multiple cases. So I would like to believe that this represents kind of a high-water mark. But of course, it's very important that we get this right. So we're going to spend what we need to spend as we see necessary to protect our licensing program. But I would say, the second half is going to be heavier in the fiscal year '18 than the first half, but we're kind of at a level now where we're supporting a lot of activity on multiple fronts. So I don't expect to be significantly higher on a run rate basis, but it could be sustained at this level for a little period of time. In terms of the handset market and units, what you're really seeing is the impact of replacement rates has really slowed growth in the developed markets. You're getting a little bit of growth in Europe. But the emerging markets continue to be a positive source of growth. And in particular, in India, in Southeast Asia, in Middle East, Africa, we're continuing to still see healthy mid- to high, well, we've seen double-digit growth in India and mid- to high single digit growth in some of these other areas. So I think that remains a positive. Also, we think in '19, you're starting to see the first 5G phones come into the marketplace. And as you go in '19 and into '20, you could start to see a replacement cycle just really driven by people wanting to take advantage of the capabilities that 5G brings.

    因此,就訴訟模式而言,我們正處於第三季度,這是一個需要進行大量調查取證和積極準備多起案件的時期。所以我認為這代表著一個巔峰時期。當然,把這件事做好非常重要。因此,我們將根據需要,投入必要的資金來保護我們的許可計劃。但我認為,2018 財年下半年的業務量會比上半年更大,但我們目前正處於一個需要同時支援多個領域大量活動的階段。因此,我預計其運行率不會大幅提高,但可能會在這個水平上維持一段時間。就手機市場和銷售量而言,你真正看到的是,更換率的影響確實減緩了已開發市場的成長。歐洲市場出現了一些成長。但新興市場仍是積極的成長動力。尤其是在印度、東南亞、中東和非洲,我們仍然看到健康的中高成長,在印度已經實現了兩位數的成長,在其他一些地區也實現了中高個位數的成長。所以我認為這仍然是一件好事。此外,我們認為在 2019 年,你將開始看到第一批 5G 手機進入市場。隨著 2019 年和 2020 年的到來,你可能會看到一個換代週期,這完全是由人們想要利用 5G 帶來的功能所驅動的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri。

  • Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

    Timothy Michael Arcuri - MD and Head of Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment

  • I actually had 2 questions. The first is, I'm wondering how you handicapped for the fiscal 2019 guidance, how you handicapped the potential for the trade issues to broaden. Obviously, there's news now that Huawei is being looked at as well. So I'm wondering how you handicapped that in your guidance, number one. And then number two, the guidance for the June quarter, if I read your comments right, are you basically saying that the normalized earnings guidance, if you assume that 8% tax rate that you had said previously, would be like $0.50?

    我其實有兩個問題。首先,我想知道您是如何預測 2019 財年業績指引的,以及您是如何預測貿易問題可能擴大的。顯然,現在也有消息稱華為也受到了關注。所以我想知道,在你的指導中,你是如何處理這個問題的,這是第一點。第二點,關於六月季度的業績指引,如果我理解你的評論沒錯的話,你基本上是說,假設你之前提到的 8% 的稅率不變,那麼正常化的盈利指引大概是 0.50 美元?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • Tim, so on the first. Obviously, the trade talks are current and it's very hard to forecast. Those were not part of our thinking. And we've seen, even in China, some pretty big swings in demand intra-quarter. So it's -- there's always going to be market fluctuations. But we think the fundamentals, if we think about the licensing business, the fundamentals, particularly on ASPs, are a real tailwind for that business going into '19. We also like the growth that we're seeing in our adjacent businesses. And we like our position overall in China. But we'll have to see. The trade issues are an intangible. We'll have to see how that plays out. In terms of the June quarter, what I would say is, if you back out simply the tax items, which to me are really fundamentally offsetting what is a weaker market. Also, clearly, ZTE is coming out of there. We have the absence of some onetime items that were in our Q2 that are not in the Q3. So I think it would be wrong to draw a line to $0.50, which is what I think your question was.

    提姆,所以是1號。顯然,貿易談判仍在進行中,很難預測結果。這些都不在我們考慮的範圍內。我們看到,即使在中國,季度內的需求也出現了相當大的波動。所以,市場總是會有波動的。但我們認為,從授權業務的基本面來看,特別是ASP方面的基本面,對於該業務在2019年的發展而言,是一個真正的利好因素。我們也樂見了鄰近業務的成長。我們對我們在中國的整體地位感到滿意。但我們拭目以待。貿易問題是無形的。我們得看看事情會如何發展。就六月的季度而言,我想說的是,如果你剔除稅收項目(在我看來,稅收項目實際上從根本上抵消了市場疲軟的影響)。而且,很明顯,中興通訊正在走出困境。第二季的一些一次性項目在第三季消失了。所以我認為把界線劃到 0.50 美元是不正確的,而這大概就是你的問題所在。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Chris Danely with Citigroup.

    我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的克里斯·丹利。

  • Christopher Brett Danely - MD

    Christopher Brett Danely - MD

  • Just a question on plan B, if NXP does not happen. Can you give us any color on what the potential size and timing of a buyback would be? And then if this does not go through, does this necessarily sort of end any M&A potential for you guys or would you look at doing something else?

    如果NXP專案失敗,B計劃是什麼?您能否透露一下回購的潛在規模和時間安排?如果這筆交易失敗,這是否意味著你們的併購潛力就此終結,還是你們會考慮做其他事情?

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • So on plan B, it would be a large, a very large program. It would be in the $20 billion to $30 billion range. Obviously, at these prices, we think the stock price is quite attractive. We don't think M&A would necessarily be closed off to the company. We think these are pretty unusual circumstances that we're seeing today. So we will continue to look at opportunities to add to the portfolio over time. We will generate the kind of cash flow that will allow us to consider other options down the road.

    所以,B計劃將會是一個非常龐大的項目。金額將在200億至300億美元之間。顯然,我們認為以這些價格來看,該股票價格相當有吸引力。我們認為併購未必會阻礙該公司進行併購。我們認為目前的情況相當不尋常。因此,我們將繼續尋找機會,隨著時間的推移不斷擴充投資組合。我們將產生足夠的現金流,以便將來可以考慮其他選擇。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie Securities.

    我們的下一個問題來自麥格理證券的 Srini Pajjuri。

  • Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Senior Analyst

    Srinivas Reddy Pajjuri - Senior Analyst

  • I just have a clarification. I guess, Alex, can you talk about where we are in the SEP-only transition in terms of how long will it take. And then I guess the real question is, you're guiding for $950 million in QTL revenue for Q2 or the next quarter. And then you also said that, that run rate will come back to $1 billion to $1.1 billion. So I'm just trying to understand what will drive that incremental growth.

    我還有一個問題需要澄清。我想,Alex,你能談談目前 SEP 完全過渡到 SEP 的進展情況,以及需要多長時間才能完成嗎?那麼,真正的問題是,你們預計第二季或下一季的 QTL 收入將達到 9.5 億美元嗎?然後你還說,這個運行率將會回升到 10 億至 11 億美元。所以,我只是想了解是什麼因素會推動這種漸進式成長。

  • George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

    George S. Davis - CFO & Executive VP

  • So this is George. Maybe I'll take the second question first and then Alex can jump in. So remember that our Q3 is the very weak calendar Q1 quarter for QTL. So you're seeing some seasonal elements there. That being said, we believe, in addition to some of the other moving parts that I talked about, not to mention just the general, the broader market weakness and the seasonal elements, the lower out-of-period, you factor all of those elements in. And also, we're continuing to see very strong ASPs and ASP growth in the marketplace. That all moves you towards the $1 billion to $1.1 billion number.

    這位是喬治。或許我可以先回答第二個問題,然後Alex再插話。所以請記住,我們的第三季是 QTL 日曆上非常疲軟的第一季。所以你可以看到一些季節性的元素。也就是說,我們認為,除了我剛才提到的其他一些變動因素之外,更不用說整體市場疲軟和季節性因素,以及淡季較低的交易量,所有這些因素都應該考慮在內。此外,我們也看到市場上的平均售價和平均售價成長動能依然強勁。這一切最終使你接近10億至11億美元的數字。

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • And then with respect to the first part of the question. The chronology is that in November, when we announced the 5G program, the SEP program, including 5G Release 15, we're anticipating devices coming to market in second half of '19. So we've got close to a 2-year window. And there are a number of agreements that will extend through this entire time frame. Those agreements -- there are a number of agreements that will simply remain in place. But there are other agreements that will come up for extensions and renewals. And so the timing of the announcement was to essentially provide transparency before the release, the specification was adopted, but also to facilitate a transition to negotiating these agreements, these extensions and renewals during this current time frame. And we expect that to happen with significant pace. So we do expect a number of agreements to be reached or renewals and extensions to be reached even in this quarter and then the following quarters, both on an SEP-only basis, but also on a portfolio-wide basis.

    然後是關於問題的第一部分。時間軸是這樣的:去年 11 月,我們宣布了 5G 計劃和 SEP 計劃,其中包括 5G Release 15,我們預計相關設備將在 2019 年下半年上市。所以我們還有將近兩年的時間窗口。而且,還有許多協議將在整個時間段內有效。這些協議——其中一些協議將繼續有效。但還有其他一些協議需要延期或續約。因此,發佈公告的時機主要是為了在規範發布和採納之前提供透明度,同時也是為了促進在當前時間段內就這些協議、延期和續簽進行談判。我們預計這種情況會以相當快的速度發生。因此,我們預計在本季度以及接下來的幾個季度,將會達成多項協議或續約和延期,既包括僅針對 SEP 的協議,也包括針對整個投資組合的協議。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Arete Research 的 Brett Simpson。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • I have a question for Alex and a follow-up for Cristiano. Alex, I just wanted to talk about the non-SEP part of the portfolio. So you said there was a transition where you'll be offering SEP-only licenses. Can you talk about the nonstandard essential portfolio and how you plan to monetize the patents here from a licensing perspective? What royalty rate do you think can be achieved here? And how many deals have you signed already for non-SEP only deals thus far?

    我有一個問題想問亞歷克斯,還有一個後續問題想問克里斯蒂亞諾。Alex,我只是想談談投資組合中非SEP部分的問題。所以你說過會有一個過渡期,屆時只會提供 SEP 許可證。您能否談談非標準必要專利組合,以及您計劃如何從許可的角度實現這些專利的盈利?您認為這裡可以達到怎樣的版稅率?到目前為止,你們已經簽署了多少份非僅限SEP的交易?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • So the history of the licensing business is that most licensees have wanted full portfolio agreements. That's the most efficient and most cost-efficient way to take a license to this portfolio. And so the commercialization of the non-SEPs has always been in the context of full portfolio agreements. It is very rare that a company asks us for a separate license to non-SEPs only. So typically, a company will want a full portfolio agreement if they want full protection. Again, that has happened historically the majority of the time. We don't have a separate distinct program at this point in time for non-SEPs. Again, our primary commercial objective is to license the full portfolio. But we do have a number of aspects to the portfolio, for example, in multimedia, in position location and in other areas where if we decide to do it, we can license them on a disaggregated basis. But that's really all that I can say about that at this point.

    因此,授權業務的歷史表明,大多數被授權者都希望獲得完整的授權組合協議。這是取得該產品組合授權的最有效、最具成本效益的方式。因此,非標準必要專利的商業化始終是在全面組合協議的背景下進行的。很少公司會要求我們單獨頒發非標準必要專利的許可證。因此,通常情況下,如果一家公司想要獲得全面保障,他們會選擇簽訂全面的投資組合協議。歷史上,這種情況大多時候都發生過。目前我們還沒有針對非SEP學生的單獨專案。再次強調,我們的主要商業目標是授權所有產品組合。但是,我們的產品組合確實包含許多方面,例如多媒體、位置定位和其他領域,如果我們決定這樣做,我們可以以分割的方式進行授權。但目前我只能說這麼多了。

  • Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

    Brett William Simpson - Senior Analyst

  • And so you have not licensed any company who have taken SEP only? There's a whole raft of nonessential patents that you have not licensed to these companies that are taking SEP-only deals? Is there a plan to monetize that out with doing platform deals, getting -- trading up to a platform deal, so to speak?

    所以你們沒有向任何只採用SEP的公司發放許可證?你們還有一大批非必要專利沒有授權給這些只接受標準必要專利(SEP)協議的公司?是否有計劃透過平台交易來實現盈利,或者說,透過某種方式升級到平台交易?

  • Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

    Alexander H. Rogers - EVP & President of QTL

  • Again, I think it's -- I'll go back to what I said before. I apologize if it wasn't clear. But the licensees have typically wanted, overwhelmingly wanted full portfolio agreements. SEP-only licensing has been primarily a function of the program that we laid out in China and very successfully established in China since 2015. And we do expect that on a go-forward basis, even though we've offered SEP only in the past, on a go-forward basis, there'll be more companies that want SEP only to include 5G. But the primary commercialization of the rest of the portfolio will be in the context of full portfolio licensing.

    我再次重申我之前的觀點。如果我表達得不夠清楚,我深感抱歉。但被授權者通常都希望,而且絕大多數都希望簽訂完整的投資組合協議。SEP 僅授權主要得益於我們自 2015 年以來在中國制定並非常成功地實施的計劃。我們預計,儘管我們過去只提供 SEP,但未來會有更多公司希望僅使用 SEP 來支援 5G。但其餘產品組合的主要商業化將以全系列產品授權的方式進行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This ends our allotted time for questions and answers. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

    我們的問答環節時間到此結束。莫倫科夫先生,在休會之前,您還有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

    Steven M. Mollenkopf - CEO

  • Yes. Thank you. I just want to thank everyone for joining us on the call today. I also want to thank the employees for their hard work. And I just want to say that the management team and the company will continue to focus on executing toward our fiscal year '19 targets, and we look forward to updating you next quarter on our progress. Thank you, everyone.

    是的。謝謝。我只想感謝今天參加我們電話會議的各位。我還要感謝員工們的辛勤工作。我只想說,管理團隊和公司將繼續專注於實現 2019 財年的目標,我們期待在下個季度向大家報告我們的進展。謝謝大家。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

    女士們、先生們,今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。