高通 (QCOM) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Qualcomm First Quarter Fiscal 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded January 31, 2018. The playback number for today's call is (855) 859-2056. International callers, please dial (404) 537-3406. The playback reservation number is 39466104. I would now like to turn the call over to John Sinnott, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Sinnott, please go ahead.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的耐心等待。歡迎參加高通公司2018財年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒：本次會議將於 2018 年 1 月 31 日進行錄音。今天電話回放號碼是（855）859-2056。國際來電者請撥 (404) 537-3406。播放預約編號為 39466104。現在我將把電話交給投資者關係副總裁約翰辛諾特。辛諾特先生，請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Today's call will include prepared remarks by Steve Mollenkopf and George Davis. In addition, Cristiano Amon, Alex Rogers and Don Rosenberg will join the question-and-answer session. You can access our earnings release and a slide presentation that accompany this call on our Investor Relations website. In addition, this call is being webcast on qualcomm.com, and a replay will be available on our website later today.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。今天的電話會議將包括史蒂夫·莫倫科普夫和喬治·戴維斯的準備好的演講。此外，克里斯蒂亞諾·阿蒙、亞歷克斯·羅傑斯和唐·羅森伯格也將參加問答環節。您可以造訪我們的投資者關係網站，查看我們的獲利報告和本次電話會議的幻燈片簡報。此外，本次電話會議正在 qualcomm.com 上進行網路直播，稍後將在我們的網站上提供重播。

During the call today, we will use non-GAAP financial measures as defined in Regulation G, and you can find the related reconciliations to GAAP on our website. We will also make forward-looking statements, including projections and estimates of future events, business or industry trends or business or financial results. Actual events or results could differ materially from those projected in our forward-looking statements. Please refer to our SEC filings, including our most recent 10-Q, which contain important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將使用 G 條例定義的非 GAAP 財務指標，您可以在我們的網站上找到與 GAAP 相關的調整表。我們也會做出前瞻性聲明，包括對未來事件、業務或行業趨勢或業務或財務表現的預測和估計。實際事件或結果可能與我們的前瞻性聲明中預測的內容有重大差異。請查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，包括我們最新的 10-Q 表格，其中包含可能導致實際結果與前瞻性陳述有重大差異的重要因素。

We have also recently provided a presentation detailing how we are creating substantial near- and long-term value for our shareholders, including our fiscal 2019 financial forecast. That presentation as well as additional materials, including videos from our management team, are available at qcomvalue.com.

我們最近也做了一份報告，詳細介紹了我們如何為股東創造實質的近期和長期價值，其中包括我們 2019 財年的財務預測。該演示文稿以及其他材料，包括我們管理團隊的視頻，都可以在 qcomvalue.com 上找到。

And now to comments from Qualcomm's Chief Executive Officer, Steve Mollenkopf.

接下來請高通執行長史蒂夫·莫倫科夫發表演說。

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report a strong set of results in our first fiscal quarter, with non-GAAP earnings per share above the high end of our prior guidance range, driven by better-than-expected ASPs and units reported by our Chinese licensees and stronger-than-expected demand for MSMs. Our strong results reflect the actions we have taken to drive our strategic objectives and improve profitability. We are benefiting from our technology and product leadership in mobile and leveraging that leadership into a growing set of opportunities across RF front end, auto, IoT, mobile compute and networking. Our fiscal second quarter guidance reflects some higher-than-normal seasonality due to near-term inventory build in the handset market, consistent with what others are reporting as well as the ongoing impact of our nonpaying licensees. In QCT, we expect the strong year-over-year performance to continue in our fiscal second quarter, driven by favorable mix and product cost actions. Longer term, our outlook for our business remains unchanged as we continue to see positive trends with higher-than-expected global smartphone ASPs in QTL and stronger share in product trends in QCT across multiple growth areas.

謝謝你，約翰，大家下午好。我們很高興地宣布，我們在第一財季取得了強勁的業績，非GAAP每股收益高於我們之前預期範圍的上限，這主要得益於我們中國授權商報告的平均售價和銷量好於預期，以及對MSM的需求強於預期。我們所取得的優異成績反映了我們為實現策略目標和提高獲利能力所採取的行動。我們在行動領域的技術和產品領先地位使我們受益匪淺，並將這種領先地位轉化為射頻前端、汽車、物聯網、行動運算和網路等領域不斷增長的機會。由於手機市場近期庫存增加，我們的第二財季業績預期反映了高於正常水平的季節性因素，這與其他公司報告的情況一致，同時也反映了我們未付費授權商的持續影響。在 QCT，我們預計在第二財季，強勁的年比業績將繼續保持，這主要得益於有利的產品組合和成本控制措施。從長遠來看，我們對業務的展望保持不變，因為我們繼續看到積極的趨勢，QTL 的全球智慧型手機 ASP 高於預期，QCT 的多個成長領域的產品份額趨勢也更加強勁。

We made 2 very important announcements today that expand and strengthen our overall relationship with Samsung. In our licensing business, we announced that we have amended and expanded our long-term licensing agreement. The license remains at the device level and continues through 2023. It is important to note that the amended agreement reached with Samsung is fully consistent with FRAND licensing practices and is consistent with our long-term model. More importantly, it provides the foundation for a long-term, stable licensing relationship with Samsung, following the KFTC investigation. And importantly, as part of the agreement, Samsung is withdrawing its opposition to our appeal of the KFTC's order. We look forward to continuing our long and mutually beneficial relationship with Samsung for many years ahead.

今天我們發布了兩項非常重要的公告，進一步拓展並加強了我們與三星的整體合作關係。在授權業務方面，我們宣布已修訂並擴大了長期授權協議。許可證仍然有效，有效期至 2023 年。值得注意的是，與三星達成的修訂協議完全符合 FRAND 授權慣例，也符合我們的長期模式。更重要的是，在韓國公平交易委員會調查之後，它為與三星建立長期、穩定的授權關係奠定了基礎。更重要的是，作為協議的一部分，三星撤回了對我們上訴韓國公平交易委員會裁決的反對意見。我們期待在未來的許多年裡繼續與三星保持長期互利的合作關係。

In our product business, we also announced the multiyear strategic agreement with Samsung in various technology areas and across a range of mobile devices. This agreement expands the company's long-standing relationship as technology and business partners into 2018 and beyond as we transition to 5G.

在產品業務方面，我們也宣布與三星在多個技術領域和一系列行動裝置上達成多年戰略協議。該協議將公司作為技術和商業合作夥伴的長期關係擴展至 2018 年及以後，助力我們向 5G 過渡。

QCT had another very successful Consumer Electronics Show earlier this month with important product and partner announcements across RF front end, auto, networking, mobile compute and IoT. QCT and its partners were awarded 52 Best of CES awards this year, up from 17 last year, clearly indicating execution in adjacent opportunities and the strength of our design pipeline.

本月初，QCT 在消費性電子展上再次取得了巨大成功，並在射頻前端、汽車、網路、行動運算和物聯網等領域發布了重要的產品和合作夥伴公告。QCT 及其合作夥伴今年獲得了 52 項 CES 最佳獎項，比去年的 17 項大幅增加，這清楚地表明了我們在相鄰機會方面的執行力以及我們設計渠道的實力。

In automotive, we now have more than $3 billion of order backlog, including more than $1 billion of order backlog in infotainment alone. At CES, we announced new auto designs with Honda, Jaguar Land Rover and BYD in China as well as a collaboration with Ford on Cellular-V2X.

在汽車領域，我們目前積壓的訂單超過 30 億美元，光是資訊娛樂系統一項的積壓訂單就超過 10 億美元。在 CES 上，我們宣布與中國本田、捷豹路虎和比亞迪合作推出新的汽車設計，並與福特合作開發 Cellular-V2X 技術。

We also announced new flagship RF front-end design wins with Google, HTC, LG, Motorola, Samsung and Sony as we expand our share position, including filter-rich modules and newly designed GaAs power amplifiers.

我們也宣布與Google、HTC、LG、摩托羅拉、三星和索尼等公司達成新的旗艦射頻前端設計合作，擴大了市場份額，其中包括富含濾波器的模組和新設計的GaAs功率放大器。

We also introduced our unique 5G tunable front-end solution, which utilizes modem intelligence at a system level to dynamically tune multimode RF performance and power efficiency when sharing radio frequencies and components across 3G, 4G and 5G. We believe this disruptive technology will transition RF front-end design leadership from dedicated component suppliers back to the system solution provider in 5G, consistent with what happened with prior wireless generation transitions.

我們還推出了我們獨特的 5G 可調前端解決方案，該方案利用系統級的調製解調器智能，在 3G、4G 和 5G 之間共享射頻和組件時，動態調整多模射頻性能和功率效率。我們相信，這項顛覆性技術將使 5G 的射頻前端設計領導權從專用組件供應商重新回到系統解決方案提供商手中，這與先前無線技術世代更迭的情況一致。

In networking, we announced solutions with expanded WiFi mesh capabilities as well as a new and upgraded mesh networking platform. We are the #1 provider of retail and enterprise WiFi, and we are reshaping the carrier segment with our mesh solutions while gaining share from key incumbents. Our success in networking is a result of a deliberate investment several years ago to position our WiFi business for the structural changes we anticipated in the market.

在網路方面，我們發布了具有擴展 WiFi 網狀網路功能的解決方案，以及全新升級的網狀網路平台。我們是零售和企業 WiFi 領域排名第一的供應商，我們正在透過我們的網狀網路解決方案重塑營運商領域，同時從主要現有企業手中奪取市場份額。我們在網路領域的成功源於幾年前的一項深思熟慮的投資，旨在使我們的 WiFi 業務能夠適應我們預期的市場結構性變化。

Last week, we also made some significant announcements at our China Technology Summit in Beijing, further demonstrating our strong ecosystem partnerships and product leadership in China. Lenovo, Oppo, Vivo and Xiaomi joined us at the summit to announce that each had signed nonbinding MoUs for the multiyear purchase of our RF front-end solutions totaling at least $2 billion, which would represent a substantial increase in our RF front-end share at these accounts. The scope of our broad RF front-end platform includes GaAs Power Amplifiers (PA), Envelope Trackers, LNAs, Multi-Mode PA and modules, RF switches, discrete filters and filter-rich modules and antenna tuners across cellular and connectivity technologies.

上週，我們在北京舉行的中國科技高峰會上也發布了一些重要公告，進一步證明了我們在中國強大的生態系統合作夥伴關係和產品領先地位。聯想、OPPO、vivo 和小米與我們一同出席了峰會，並宣布他們各自簽署了不具約束力的諒解備忘錄，將在多年內採購我們的射頻前端解決方案，總金額至少為 20 億美元，這將大幅提高我們在這些客戶中的射頻前端市場份額。我們廣泛的射頻前端平台涵蓋了 GaAs 功率放大器 (PA)、包絡追蹤器、低雜訊放大器 (LNA)、多模 PA 和模組、射頻開關、分立濾波器模組以及天線調諧器，涵蓋了蜂窩和連接技術。

We also announced collaboration agreements in China called the "5G Pioneer Initiative" with Lenovo, Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi, ZTE and Wingtech for the development of advanced 5G mobile devices targeting the 2019 time frame. 5G represents a market discontinuity in the mobile ecosystem, and it coincides with China-based OEMs' plans to expand globally in the premium tier.

我們也宣布與聯想、OPPO、vivo、小米、中興和聞泰科技在中國達成合作協議，成立“5G先鋒計畫”，旨在開發針對2019年的先進5G行動裝置。5G 代表著行動生態系統的一次市場變革，這與中國 OEM 廠商在全球高端市場擴張的計畫不謀而合。

In our dispute with Apple, we continue to move closer toward a number of key legal milestones later this year and early next year. In various jurisdictions around the world, in cases concerning Apple's infringement of Qualcomm's patents, there will be hearings and determinations on whether Qualcomm should be entitled to injunctive relief and exclusion orders. Also, Qualcomm's case against Apple's contract manufacturers for breach of their license agreements continues to move toward resolution in the same time frame, as does Qualcomm's case against Apple for improperly interfering with those license agreements. We value Apple as a customer and would like to continue that relationship into the future, but it is in our stockholders' best interest that we ensure that Apple pay a fair and reasonable royalty and operate on a level playing field with the other OEMs.

在與蘋果的糾紛中，我們正朝著今年稍後和明年初的一系列關鍵法律里程碑不斷邁進。在世界各地的不同司法管轄區，對於涉及蘋果侵犯高通專利的案件，將會舉行聽證會並作出裁決，以確定高通是否有權獲得禁制令救濟和排除令。此外，高通公司起訴蘋果公司代工製造商違反許可協議的案件，以及高通公司起訴蘋果公司不當幹預這些許可協議的案件，都在同一時間段內繼續朝著解決的方向發展。我們重視蘋果公司作為客戶，並希望在未來繼續維持這種關係，但為了我們股東的最大利益，我們必須確保蘋果支付公平合理的專利費，並與其他原始設備製造商在公平的競爭環境中運作。

While the litigation with Apple is necessary to protect our IP assets and our contract rights, we remain open to finding a path to resolution and collaboration with Apple as a partner.

雖然與蘋果公司進行訴訟對於保護我們的智慧財產權和合約權利是必要的，但我們仍然願意尋求與蘋果公司作為合作夥伴共同解決問題和合作的途徑。

Turning to demand trends for 3G, 4G devices around the world. Consistent with what others have been reporting, we are forecasting some short-term end-market softness, driven by larger-than-typical sequential correction in orders from a thin modem customer and near-term smartphone trends in China. George will provide more details on our updated forecast, but we continue to see favorable long-term trends, including flagship handset launches later this year and the ramp of 5G device shipments beginning in early calendar 2019.

接下來，我們來看看全球對 3G、4G 設備的需求趨勢。與其他人報告的情況一致，我們預測短期內終端市場將出現一些疲軟，這是由於來自輕薄型調變解調器客戶的訂單環比調整幅度較大，以及中國智慧型手機的近期發展趨勢所致。George 將提供更多關於我們更新後的預測的細節，但我們繼續看到有利的長期趨勢，包括今年稍後推出旗艦手機以及從 2019 年初開始 5G 設備出貨量的增加。

Turning to our pending acquisition of NXP. With recent approvals in both Europe and Korea, only Chinese regulatory approval remains, and we hope to receive that soon. We continue to see this as an attractive deal for both our stockholders and NXP's stockholders at $110 per share as the combination brings together a comprehensive set of capabilities to address next-generation auto and IoT devices and provides us with greater scale in auto, IoT, security and networking with their highly complementary products and world-class sales channel.

接下來談談我們即將進行的恩智浦的收購。繼歐洲和韓國近期獲得批准後，目前只剩下中國監管部門的批准，我們希望盡快獲得批准。我們仍然認為，以每股 110 美元的價格收購 NXP 對我們的股東和 NXP 的股東來說都是一筆很有吸引力的交易，因為此次合併將一系列全面的能力結合起來，以應對下一代汽車和物聯網設備，並透過其高度互補的產品和世界一流的銷售管道，為我們在汽車、物聯網、安全和網路領域提供更大的規模。

On January 16, we released an investor presentation that outlined a near-term and long-term value opportunity for our stockholders and our plan to deliver $6.75 to $7.50 in non-GAAP earnings per share in fiscal 2019. We believe this appropriately frames the core earnings power of Qualcomm and the multiple levers we have within our control to achieve this, along with the significant value for our shareholders as we work through our outstanding licensing disputes.

1 月 16 日，我們發布了一份投資者演示文稿，概述了我們股東的近期和長期價值機會，以及我們在 2019 財年實現每股非 GAAP 收益 6.75 美元至 7.50 美元的計劃。我們認為這恰當地概括了高通的核心盈利能力以及我們為實現這一目標所掌握的多種手段，同時也概括了在我們努力解決懸而未決的許可糾紛的過程中，為股東帶來的巨大價值。

We took a conservative approach to modeling our fiscal year '19 earnings target, and our management team is very committed to driving this result for our shareholders. We outlined a huge opportunity for growth and diversification through our expansion into new complementary adjacent opportunities. This growth is underpinned by the expansion of our service addressable market from $23 billion in 2015 to approximately $150 billion in 2020 or more than 6x the size of Qualcomm's 2015 SAM.

我們在製定 2019 財年獲利目標模型時採取了保守的方法，我們的管理團隊也致力於為股東實現這一目標。我們透過拓展新的互補性鄰近領域，看到了巨大的成長和多元化機會。這一成長得益於我們的服務目標市場規模的擴大，從 2015 年的 230 億美元擴大到 2020 年的約 1500 億美元，是高通公司 2015 年服務目標市場規模的 6 倍多。

Another important area of value creation is 5G, and Qualcomm is leading the industry. Whether you are a phone maker, an infrastructural company or a network operator, Qualcomm is already identified as the key partner for accelerating your road map to 5G commercialization around the world. We are partnering with leaders across the globe as we work to bring 5G to market, including Verizon, AT&T, Nokia, Ericsson, China Mobile, SK Telecom, Telstra, Vodafone, Orange, NTT DOCOMO, T-Mobile, Sprint and now, Samsung. Our announced 5G Pioneer Initiative further builds on this strong global momentum.

另一個重要的價值創造領域是 5G，而高通公司在該行業處於領先地位。無論您是手機製造商、基礎設施公司還是網路營運商，高通都已被公認為加速您在全球實現 5G 商業化路線圖的關鍵合作夥伴。我們正與全球各地的領導者合作，共同努力將 5G 推向市場，包括 Verizon、AT&T、諾基亞、愛立信、中國行動、SK Telecom、Telstra、沃達豐、Orange、NTT DOCOMO、T-Mobile、Sprint，以及現在的三星。我們宣布的 5G 先鋒計畫進一步鞏固了這一強勁的全球發展勢頭。

In closing, we reported a very strong set of results this quarter, and our products and technologies are leading in their respective categories and are set to lead as we enter the 5G generation. These generation changes have always provided us with the opportunity to benefit from our significant technology lead, and this will be true again to an even greater degree in 5G. Our technologies will expand into many industries as we enter the age of IoT, autonomous vehicles, always-on mobile computing and ubiquitous networking.

綜上所述，本季度我們取得了非常強勁的業績，我們的產品和技術在其各自的類別中處於領先地位，隨著我們進入 5G 時代，它們也必將保持領先地位。這些代際更迭一直為我們提供了利用我們巨大的技術領先優勢的機會，而5G時代，這種情況將更加明顯。隨著我們進入物聯網、自動駕駛汽車、全天候行動運算和普適網路時代，我們的技術將擴展到許多行業。

I will now turn the call over to George.

現在我將把通話轉給喬治。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. Fiscal first quarter non-GAAP results were very strong. Non-GAAP revenues were $6 billion, just above the midpoint of our prior guidance range, and non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.98, $0.08 above the midpoint of our guidance range, reflecting strong performance in both QCT and QTL.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家下午好。第一財季非GAAP業績非常強勁。非GAAP營收為60億美元，略高於我們先前指引範圍的中點；非GAAP每股收益為0.98美元，比我們指引範圍的中點高出0.08美元，反映出QCT和QTL的強勁表現。

In QCT, MSM chip shipments were 237 million, towards the high end of our guidance range. Overall performance in QCT was above expectations, driven primarily by the higher unit volume on a build ahead for a customer's flagship launch. QCT's earnings before tax in the first fiscal quarter was up 32% year-over-year, the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth, reflecting the strong MSM demand, improved product mix and product cost initiatives. QCT EBT margin was 21% for the quarter, above our prior guidance on the higher MSM volume and up more than 280 basis points over the same period last year.

在 QCT，MSM 晶片出貨量為 2.37 億，接近我們預期範圍的高階。QCT 的整體表現超出預期，主要得益於為客戶旗艦產品發布提前生產的較高單位產量。QCT 第一財季稅前利潤年增 32%，連續第七個季度實現同比增長，這反映了 MSM 的強勁需求、產品組合的改善以及產品成本控制舉措。QCT 本季 EBT 利潤率為 21%，高於我們先前因 MSM 銷量增加而作出的預期，比去年同期增長超過 280 個基點。

In QTL, revenues were $1.3 billion, at the high end of our prior guidance range, driven primarily by stronger-than-expected 3G/4G device ASPs and units reported by OEMs in China for the September quarter. Recall that this excludes royalty revenues from Apple's products and the other licensee in dispute.

QTL 的營收為 13 億美元，處於我們先前預期範圍的高端，這主要得益於中國 OEM 廠商在 9 月季度報告的 3G/4G 設備平均售價和銷售量強於預期。請注意，這不包括蘋果公司產品和另一爭議被授權人的特許權使用費收入。

QTL EBT margin was 68%, at the low end of our prior guidance. EBT margin would have been 72% or at the higher end of prior guidance if not for bad debt expense recorded in the quarter related to a licensee that is facing significant financial difficulties. This charge also accounted for the modestly higher-than-forecasted OpEx expense in the quarter. The GAAP loss this quarter reflected the impact of a $6 billion charge related to the enactment of U.S. tax reform legislation and the accrual of the European Commission's $1.2 billion fine announced last week. These 2 charges impacted fiscal first quarter GAAP EPS by $4.79 per share and were excluded from non-GAAP results.

QTL EBT 利潤率為 68%，處於我們先前預期範圍的下限。如果不是因為本季計入了與面臨重大財務困難的被授權人相關的壞帳支出，EBT 利潤率本應達到 72%，或達到先前預期的較高水準。這項費用也導致了本季營運支出略高於預期。本季 GAAP 虧損反映了與美國稅收改革立法頒布相關的 60 億美元費用以及上周宣布的歐盟委員會 12 億美元罰款的提列。這兩項費用使第一財季 GAAP 每股收益減少了 4.79 美元，並已從非 GAAP 業績中剔除。

The $6 billion book charge largely relates to the onetime repatriation tax on our offshore deemed repatriated earnings and profits. After application of applicable tax credits, we expect to pay $3.3 billion in cash taxes, back-end-loaded over 8 years beginning in January 2019.

60億美元的帳面費用主要與我們海外視為匯回的收益和利潤的一次性匯回稅有關。在應用適用的稅收抵免後，我們預計將支付 33 億美元的現金稅款，分 8 年支付，從 2019 年 1 月開始。

In general, we expect U.S. tax reform in the longer term to result in a modest positive improvement in our effective tax rate as the increase in tax on offshore earnings is more than offset by the benefit to onshore earnings.

總的來說，我們預計從長遠來看，美國稅收改革將使我們的實際稅率略有改善，因為離岸收益稅的增加將被境內收益的收益所抵消。

The European Commission fine relates to a decision on its investigation of a modem chip agreement that was in effect from 2011 through 2016. While we disagree with the decision and will immediately appeal it to the General Court of the European Union, it is important to note that the decision does not relate to our licensing business and has no impact on ongoing operations. We will post the bond in lieu of paying the fine during the appeal period.

歐盟委員會的罰款與該委員會對一項從 2011 年到 2016 年生效的調製解調器晶片協議的調查決定有關。雖然我們不同意該決定，並將立即向歐盟普通法院提出上訴，但需要指出的是，該決定與我們的許可業務無關，也不會對正在進行的營運產生任何影響。在申訴期間，我們將繳納保證金以代替繳納罰款。

Turning to return of capital. We returned $1.1 billion to stockholders in the quarter in the form of dividends and buybacks.

轉而進行資本返還。本季我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 11 億美元。

Turning to our financial guidance for the fiscal second quarter. We estimate revenues to be in the range of approximately $4.8 billion to $5.6 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.65 to $0.75 per share. These expectations are reflecting weaker-than-forecasted smartphone demand in the December quarter. As a reminder, the fiscal second quarter is normally the seasonally high quarter for QTL revenues, absent the 2 disputes, and the seasonally low quarter for QCT.

接下來談談我們對第二財季的財務預期。我們預計收入將在 48 億美元至 56 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益將在 0.65 美元至 0.75 美元之間。這些預期反映出12月季智慧型手機需求弱於預期。提醒一下，通常情況下，第二財季是 QTL 收入的季節性高峰期（不包括這 2 起糾紛），也是 QCT 收入的季節性低谷期。

In QTL, we estimate revenues of $1.15 billion to $1.35 billion in the fiscal second quarter, down approximately 4% sequentially at the midpoint. We expect QTL EBT margin to be approximately 64% to 68%, down sequentially at the midpoint on lower revenues and increased litigation expenses. It is important to note, the impact of Apple nonpayment is more pronounced in the fiscal second quarter as it is typically an outsized quarter for royalties related to Apple products relative to other licensees, given the timing of their product launch cycle.

QTL預計第二財季營收為11.5億美元至13.5億美元，以中間值計算，季減約4%。我們預計 QTL 的 EBT 利潤率約為 64% 至 68%，由於收入下降和訴訟費用增加，環比下降（取中間值）。值得注意的是，由於蘋果產品上市週期的時間安排，與其他被授權者相比，蘋果在第二財季的特許權使用費通常較高，因此蘋果公司拖欠款項的影響在第二財季更為明顯。

Our QTL revenue forecast for our second quarter is also being impacted by software sell-through as demand in China in the December quarter was down on a year-over-year basis. We will be closely watching Chinese New Year device sell-through results to assess the time period necessary for the supply and demand dynamics to rebalance.

由於中國市場在 12 月的銷售需求年減，我們第二季的 QTL 營收預測也受到了軟體銷售的影響。我們將密切注意春節期間設備的銷售情況，以評估供需動態重新平衡所需的時間。

Turning to the chip business. We expect MSM shipments of approximately 170 million to 190 million units. This outlook includes the normal seasonal effects of lower demand in the calendar first quarter, a larger-than-normal reduction in orders sequentially from a large modem customer as well as near-term, lower-than-expected orders from customers, particularly in China on inventory concerns from the demand dynamics. This forecast is consistent with continued strong chip share in the quarter.

轉向晶片業務。我們預計 MSM 的出貨量約為 1.7 億至 1.9 億件。這項展望包括日曆第一季需求下降的正常季節性影響、來自一家大型調變解調器客戶的訂單環比大幅減少，以及近期來自客戶的訂單低於預期，尤其是在中國，這是由於需求動態導致的庫存擔憂。這項預測與本季晶片市場佔有率持續強勁的預期相符。

We expect QCT revenue per MSM to be up on a sequential basis in the fiscal second quarter, driven by seasonal factors and favorable product mix. We expect QCT's fiscal second quarter EBT margin to be approximately 13% to 15%, down sequentially on lower MSM volumes, offset by benefits from product cost initiatives but up 100 basis points year-over-year at the midpoint. We anticipate fiscal second quarter non-GAAP combined R&D and SG&A expenses will be flat to down approximately 2% sequentially as increased litigation expenses and the reset of employee benefit taxes are more than offset by the absence of the prior bad debt charge.

我們預計，在第二財季，受季節性因素和有利的產品組合推動，QCT 每百萬平方公尺的營收將季增。我們預期 QCT 財年第二季 EBT 利潤率約為 13% 至 15%，由於 MSM 銷量下降，環比下降，但產品成本控制措施帶來的收益抵消了這一降幅，不過按中間值計算，同比上升 100 個基點。我們預計，由於訴訟費用增加和員工福利稅重置的影響被先前壞帳費用的取消所抵消，第二財季非GAAP綜合研發和銷售、管理及行政費用將與上一財年持平或下降約2%。

We will be implementing the cost reduction initiatives in the quarter and are in the process of determining the expected charges for severance and other related costs. We will provide that information once that estimate is finalized.

我們將在本季實施成本削減計劃，目前正在確定預計的遣散費和其他相關費用。一旦估價最終確定，我們將提供相關資訊。

Non-GAAP interest expense, net of investment income in the fiscal second quarter, is expected to be roughly flat sequentially at approximately $60 million.

預計第二財季非GAAP利息支出（扣除投資收益後）將與上一財季基本持平，約6,000萬美元。

Given the market dynamics we have described, we are updating our unit outlook for calendar year global 3G/4G devices for both 2017 and 2018. For calendar year 2017, we have adjusted the midpoint lower and narrowed our range. We now expect 3G/4G device shipments of approximately 1.75 billion to 1.8 billion units, up approximately 4% at the midpoint year-over-year. For calendar year 2018, we are bringing down our estimate modestly to reflect the lower 2017 base. We now estimate a range of 1.85 billion to 1.95 billion 3G/4G device shipments for calendar 2018 or up approximately 7% from the midpoint of our expectations for calendar 2017.

鑑於我們所描述的市場動態，我們正在更新 2017 年和 2018 年全球 3G/4G 設備銷售的預測。對於 2017 年日曆年，我們下調了中點並縮小了價格區間。我們現在預計 3G/4G 設備出貨量約為 17.5 億至 18 億台，年增約 4%（取中間值）。由於 2017 年的基數較低，我們將 2018 年的預測值略為下調。我們現在預計 2018 年 3G/4G 設備出貨量將在 18.5 億至 19.5 億部之間，比我們對 2017 年的預期中位數成長約 7%。

With respect to fiscal 2018 global 3G/4G device sales, we now expect global device ASPs will increase year-over-year based on strength at the mid and premium tiers as opposed to our previous expectation of a low-single-digit percentage decline. We are not revising our estimate for fiscal 2018 device sales until we get a clear picture of whether the ASP pickup will more than offset the sell-through issues discussed earlier.

關於 2018 財年全球 3G/4G 設備銷售，我們現在預計全球設備平均售價將同比增長，這主要得益於中高端市場的強勁表現，而不是我們之前預期的個位數百分比下降。在明確平均售價上漲能否彌補先前討論過的銷售問題之前，我們不會修改 2018 財年設備銷售的預測。

Turning to 2019. We continue to be highly confident in our outlook for fiscal 2019 as recently disclosed in our investor presentation, with base non-GAAP EPS of $5.25 growing to between $6.75 and $7.50 per share upon resolution of the licensing disputes.

展望2019年。正如我們在最近向投資者展示中所披露的那樣，我們對 2019 財年的前景仍然充滿信心，基本非 GAAP 每股收益為 5.25 美元，在許可糾紛解決後，每股收益將增長至 6.75 美元至 7.50 美元之間。

That concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to John.

我的發言到此結束。現在我將把電話轉回給約翰。

Thank you, George. Operator, we are ready for questions.

謝謝你，喬治。接線員，我們已準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Tim long with BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Tim Long。

Just wanted a little more color on the Samsung arrangements here. It sounds like you extended with FRAND terms, but just talk to us a little bit. I know the prior deal had an upfront payment. It had some technology, IPR transfers as well. So could you just talk a little bit about how those 2 and the new collaborations factor into the FRAND rate discussion for Samsung? And then I have a follow-up after that.

只是想讓三星的產品擺放更豐富一些。聽起來你們是按照 FRAND 條款進行延期的，但還是跟我們詳細說說吧。我知道之前的交易是有預付款的。它擁有一些技術，也涉及智慧財產權轉移。那麼，您能否談談這兩項舉措以及新的合作將如何影響三星的 FRAND 費率討論？然後我還有後續跟進。

Tim, this is Alex. So the amended and expanded agreement basically takes the prior deal and just adds some changes to it. So a lot of what was in the prior deal remains in place, so, for example, the upfront payment that you talked about. The key things to keep in mind about this, Samsung amended license agreement, is that it's consistent with our FRAND licensing practices. It remains a license at the handset level. This is not a chipset level royalty-bearing license. And so it also -- 1 key element also is an expansion of rights back to Qualcomm, to Samsung's patent portfolio. And one of the key factors to keep in mind is that as part of this amendment and this new arrangement with Samsung, Samsung is going to be withdrawing from its intervention of the KFTC appeal adverse to Qualcomm. So they'll no longer participate in that matter adverse to Qualcomm. And from a financial perspective, it supports the numbers that we put out for 2019 fiscal year and beyond and provides a strong foundation for Qualcomm and its relationship with Samsung through 2023.

提姆，我是亞歷克斯。因此，修訂和擴充後的協議基本上是在先前協議的基礎上進行了一些修改。所以之前協議中的許多內容仍然有效，例如你剛才提到的預付款。關於三星修改後的授權協議，需要記住的關鍵一點是，它符合我們的 FRAND 授權實踐。它仍然是手機級別的授權許可。這不是晶片組級別的付費許可。因此，其中一個關鍵要素是將權利擴展回高通，並擴展回三星的專利組合。需要記住的關鍵因素之一是，作為這項修正案和與三星達成的新協議的一部分，三星將撤回其對韓國公平交易委員會不利於高通的上訴的干預。所以他們將不再參與對高通不利的那件事。從財務角度來看，這支持了我們公佈的 2019 財年及以後的數據，並為高通及其與三星的關係奠定了堅實的基礎，直至 2023 年。

Okay. And just if I could just follow up on the China business. It sounds like a lot of moving parts there. September was really strong for the device manufacturers, then weakening. Could you just talk a little bit about what you think is going on with the reason for the change in demand there? And second, could you talk -- it's been a pretty good market share gain region for you. Can you talk about it, if you still think you're taking share in the Chinese end market?

好的。如果我能跟進中國業務就好了。聽起來那裡牽涉的環節很多。9月設備製造商的業績表現非常強勁，之後開始走弱。您能否簡單談談您認為造成當地需求變化的原因是什麼？其次，您能否談談——對您來說，這是一個市場份額增長相當不錯的地區。您能否談談您是否仍認為您在中國終端市場佔有一席之地？

Tim, this is Cristiano. I think we talked about a near-term weakness in the domestic China market based on the sell-through data in the December quarter, and that was contemplated in our guidance. I think you need to think about -- there's -- there was a super -- expect a super cycle, and I think -- well, for one of the flagships, and you think to the Chinese OEMs, they don't want to go ahead, and most of the new products are going to launch into Chinese New Year. So that's one thing on the demand sell-through in the December quarter. I think we will monitor the Chinese New Year data. And whatever could be inventory into the quarter, we should rebalance in the first half of the year. We also see that the forecast is consistent with 2 things happening for QCT, I think, both a strong chip share with those OEMs as well as mixed improvements. So we were not -- we can't really talk about the second half of the year, but the Chinese New Year launches is just ahead of us.

提姆，這位是克里斯蒂亞諾。我認為我們曾根據 12 月季度的銷售數據討論過中國國內市場短期疲軟的問題，這一點也在我們的業績指引中有所體現。我認為你需要考慮——有一個——有一個超級週期——期待一個超級週期，而且我認為——嗯，對於其中一款旗艦產品來說，你想想中國OEM廠商，他們不想繼續推進，而且大多數新產品都將在中國新年期間發布。這是關於12月季度需求銷售情況的一個面向。我認為我們會密切關注春節期間的數據。對於本季可能出現的庫存問題，我們應該在上半年重新調整。我們也看到，該預測與 QCT 的兩件事相符，我認為，這兩件事分別是：在這些 OEM 廠商中獲得強勁的晶片份額，以及喜憂參半的改進。所以我們不能——我們不能真的談論下半年，但春節促銷活動即將到來。

Our next question is from the line of Mike Walkley with Canaccord Genuity.

我們的下一個問題來自 Canaccord Genuity 的 Mike Walkley。

Cristiano, just talking about 5G, Qualcomm historically gains share with new wireless technologies. Can you just update us on how you see 5G ramping and why Qualcomm is ahead of the competition, maybe what technology areas you see the competitors might lack? And also just on the China side also, a follow-up question, just can you talk about some of these RF agreements and how you see your RF business ramping over the next 2 years?

克里斯蒂亞諾，就拿 5G 來說，高通歷來都是透過新的無線技術來獲得市場份額的。您能否簡要介紹一下您對 5G 發展前景的看法，以及高通為何領先於競爭對手，還有您認為競爭對手可能在哪些技術領域存在不足？另外，關於中國方面，還有一個後續問題，您能否談談這些射頻協議，以及您如何看待貴公司射頻業務在未來兩年內的發展？

Yes, Mike. So let me start with 5G. We have been pretty consistent talking about a 5G acceleration in the industry, and we now probably have line of sight of a number of deployments. They're going to happen off the network with the 3GPP global 5-generator standard in the later part of this year. And we are working with a number of OEMs to have smartphone launches in the first half of 2019. And part of that, I think we also announced in China last week a 5G Pioneer, I think, program of a number of OEMs of the China market. They see 5G as a discontinuity to basically enable their expansion plans to become global players, leveraging their 5G transition. So I think the motivation to have early launches in the first half of '19 is high and are marching towards that date. So your second question is about competitiveness of 5G. 5G brings a number of complex technologies. One is, you have the foundation, which is Gigabit LTE, which we've been investing and 4G continues to evolve. There are 17 smartphones in the market today with that capabilities using a Qualcomm modem. We also have the addition of 2 other frequencies, sub-6 and millimeter-wave. And we continue to see complexities in the RF. So we're looking at our position as being a company that have been in a good position for the 4G, which continues to evolve, and being supporting multiple global activities with 5G. We have announced probably trials and, over there, I think, tests with all of the infrastructure vendors across all of the operators' launch. So I think scale is going to be an advantage for us, and we're optimistic about the prospect. Your last question is RF front end. We announced a total of $2 billion in RF front-end purchase across 4 OEMs. We're starting to ramp designs. I think it's probably a second set of announcements. The first one was CES when we announced a number of OEMs, and then Chinese OEMs was in the second wave. We also feel good about the 5G story in front end. When 5G technology gets launched, I believe the baseband and the system platform, the reference design plays a stronger role in defining the RF front-end configuration. As part of the same discussion, we saw support in China for our tunable front-end solution. Thank you.

是的，麥克。那麼，就讓我先從5G說起。我們一直在談論 5G 在業界的加速發展，現在我們可能已經看到了許多部署的跡象。它們將在今年晚些時候，按照 3GPP 全球 5 代標準在網路之外實現。我們正在與多家原始設備製造商合作，計劃在 2019 年上半年推出智慧型手機。我認為，其中一部分內容是，我們上週還在中國宣布了一項針對中國市場多家原始設備製造商的 5G 先鋒計畫。他們將 5G 視為一種突破，以此推動其擴張計劃，成為全球參與者，並利用 5G 轉型實現這一目標。所以我認為，在 2019 年上半年儘早推出產品的動力很強，並且正在朝著這個日期邁進。所以你的第二個問題是關於5G的競爭力。5G引進了許多複雜的技術。一方面，我們有了基礎，也就是千兆 LTE，我們一直在投資，而且 4G 也在不斷發展。目前市面上共有 17 款智慧型手機採用高通調變解調器，具備此功能。我們也增加了另外兩個頻率，分別是 6 兆赫以下和毫米波。我們持續看到射頻領域的複雜性。因此，我們認為自身定位為一家在 4G 領域處於有利地位的公司，而 4G 仍在不斷發展，我們正在利用 5G 來支持多項全球活動。我們已經宣布可能會進行試驗，而且我認為，在那邊，所有營運商的所有基礎設施供應商都會進行測試。所以我認為規模對我們來說將是一個優勢，我們對前景持樂觀態度。你的最後一個問題是關於射頻前端的。我們宣布向 4 家原始設備製造商購買總計 20 億美元的射頻前端產品。我們正在逐步推進設計工作。我認為這很可能是第二批公告。第一次是在 CES 展會上，我們宣布了一系列 OEM 廠商，然後是第二波中國 OEM 廠商的加入。我們對前端的 5G 前景也感到樂觀。我認為，當 5G 技術推出時，基頻和系統平台、參考設計將在定義射頻前端配置方面發揮更重要的作用。在同一討論中，我們看到中國市場對我們的可調前端解決方案表示支持。謝謝。

Our next question is from the line of Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Amit Daryanani。

A couple for me as well. Maybe start with -- could you maybe just help us understand how much impact are you seeing on your revenue line from the China inventories that you guys talked about? And do you think this is something that gets worked out through the March quarter? Or could it persist through the June quarter as well?

我也想要一對。或許可以先問一下——您能否幫我們了解一下，您之前提到的中國庫存對您的收入產生了多大的影響？你認為這個問題能在三月的季度內解決嗎？或者這種情況會持續到六月的季度嗎？

Yes. Clearly, I think 2 major factors when we think about Q2 is -- one is the China weakness really impacted customers that felt they were going to have a stronger sell-though at the end of December. And so as Cristiano said, we're going to be watching very closely the Chinese New Year sales to see how much of that gets absorbed in the second quarter. So we don't know yet. There may be some activity that carries on beyond that. But for our revenue overall in the second quarter, there are some other factors that are also at play. One, in the licensing business, normally, obviously, this is a very strong quarter for licensing, but it also happens to have a -- usually a very heavy-weighting of Apple because their flagship launch tends to take place, as you know, in the fourth calendar quarter, which is the second fiscal quarter for our licensing business. The absence of that, we're not seeing as much of a seasonal pickup as we would normally see there, plus the licensing estimates reflect the lower sell-through that we ended up seeing in December that really didn't impact the chip business.

是的。顯然，我認為我們在考慮第二季時有兩個主要因素——一是中國市場的疲軟確實影響了那些認為他們在 12 月底會有更強勁銷售業績的客戶。正如克里斯蒂亞諾所說，我們將密切關注中國新年銷售額，看看有多少銷售額能在第二季消化。所以我們目前還不知道。可能還有一些活動會持續到那之後。但就我們第二季的整體營收而言，還有一些其他因素在起作用。第一，在授權業務方面，通常情況下，很顯然，這是授權業務的一個非常強勁的季度，但恰好蘋果公司的業務也佔據了相當大的比重，因為眾所周知，他們的旗艦產品發布往往發生在第四個日曆季度，也就是我們授權業務的第二財季。由於缺乏這些因素，我們沒有看到像往常那樣明顯的季節性增長，此外，授權估計也反映了我們在 12 月看到的較低的銷售量，但這實際上並沒有影響晶片業務。

That's really helpful. And, I guess, a quick follow-up. The OpEx guide that you guys have for March quarter, if my math is working correctly, the implication is OpEx as a personal sales will be something north of 35%. And I realize there's some onetime variables there, but could you maybe talk about what are these onetime variables? What's the right way to think about OpEx as a percent of revenues? And when do you get to realize all the billion dollar cost take-out benefits you've talked about?

這真的很有幫助。我想，還有一個後續問題。根據你們提供的 3 月份季度的營運支出指南，如果我的計算正確的話，這意味著營運支出佔個人銷售額的比例將超過 35%。我知道這裡面有一些一次性變量，但您能否談談這些一次性變數是什麼？以收入百分比來衡量營運支出 (OpEx) 的正確方法是什麼？那麼，你所說的那些節省數十億美元成本的收益，什麼時候才能真正實現呢？

Yes. I think the OpEx as a percent of revenue, you certainly had a little bit of a bounce, but that was more in Q1 relative to the bad debt charge. When I think about OpEx for the company, I think you've seen, really, since the strategic realignment plan, the major drivers of any pickup have either been our investment in pre-commercial 5G or the increase that you've seen in SG&A to support the higher litigation and model defense spending that we have. We think under the $1 billion plan, we can absorb the 5G costs that you've seen. We think as we move our focus further into these new sort of available markets we've talked about, we're going to be able to reprioritize our investment portfolio and taking additional costs out. But really, the biggest savings are going to come out of SG&A, which has been a big driver of our growth in OpEx over the last 4, 5 years, in particular, in the licensing area and in this model defense. And we think we have a clear path to -- by '19 to getting some of those costs taken back out. Of course, we'll have a real focus on overhead costs as well as part of the SG&A.

是的。我認為營運支出佔收入的百分比確實略有回升，但這更多是由於第一季的壞帳支出造成的。當我考慮公司的營運支出時，我認為你們已經看到，自從戰略調整計劃實施以來，任何增長的主要驅動因素要么是我們對商用前 5G 的投資，要么是你們看到的銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的增加，以支持我們更高的訴訟和模型防禦支出。我們認為，在10億美元的計劃下，我們可以承擔您所看到的5G成本。我們認為，隨著我們將注意力進一步轉移到我們討論過的這些新的可用市場，我們將能夠重新調整投資組合的優先順序，並削減額外的成本。但實際上，最大的節省將來自銷售、一般及行政費用，這在過去 4、5 年裡一直是我們營運支出成長的主要驅動力，尤其是在授權領域和這種模式防禦方面。我們認為，到 2019 年，我們有明確的途徑來消除其中一些成本。當然，我們也會專注於間接費用以及銷售、一般及行政費用的一部分。

Our next question is from the line of Stacy Rasgon with Bernstein Research.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦研究公司的史黛西·拉斯貢。

I had a question on the 2019 guidance. So you're talking a lot about 5G ramping and everything else, which sounds great, but as soon as I take a look at that guide, $5.25 without fixing licensing, $3.75 without the $1 billion -- or without (inaudible) or the buyback, if I take out the $1 billion cost cut that isn't really your numbers right now, it's more like $3.15, which seems to be quite a bit worse than where The Street is and, I would say, inconsistent with some of your commentary on some of the good things coming down the pipe. So, I guess, can we talk a little bit more about what's actually in that guide? What are you assuming is getting worse between now and then? You mentioned Samsung's new royalty payments in line with your numbers. Are those getting worse versus where they are now? What are you assuming for Apple share? Any color you can give us on that would be helpful. And then I have a follow-on.

我有一個關於2019年指導意見的問題。所以你一直在談論 5G 的加速部署等等，這聽起來很棒，但我一看那份指南，如果不解決許可問題，每股收益是 5.25 美元；如果不扣除 10 億美元的成本削減——或者不扣除（聽不清）回購——每股收益是 3.75 美元，如果我扣除那 10 億美元的成本更像數據（這實際上是每股收益 3.美元，這似乎比華爾街的預期要糟糕得多，而且我認為，這與你之前對一些即將推出的利好事物的評論並不一致。那麼，我們能不能再詳細談談那本指南裡到底包含了哪些內容呢？你認為從現在到那時，哪些方面會惡化？你提到了三星新的專利費支付方式，這與你的數據相符。這些情況比現在更糟了嗎？你對蘋果股價的預期如何？如果您能提供任何相關信息，都將對我們很有幫助。然後我還有後續問題。

Sure, Stacy. This is George. The -- I think your math is generally good, but what we've -- I think what's missing is, we've said we're going to put some conservative assumptions into the numbers that, quite frankly, if you did the math based on our run rate today, you would say would be a lower run rate than we're experiencing today, and that is by taking out Apple -- all Apple revenue related to new products, including both the modem and the front end and saying, "If, for whatever reason, we're still litigating or pursuing an agreement with Apple and haven't reached it and they decide to take the decision to carve us out completely, what does that look like?" So again, the purpose of that estimate was really to provide stockholders with a high confidence-based number before resolution of the licensing. So as they consider alternatives, that they can understand what does the kind of core earnings look like on a conservative basis. But you're right, it would be below the run rate today, and it was purposely conservative. We also have some tax impact in the $5.25 number. Tax reform, for us, is a little higher tax on offshore earnings, lower tax on onshore. Net-net, it's slightly positive, but when you break it out the way we did in that analysis, it's negative in the $5.25 and it's positive on a resolution basis.

當然可以，斯黛西。這是喬治。我認為你的計算總體上沒問題，但我覺得缺少的是，我們說過我們會對數字做出一些保守的假設。坦白說，如果你按照我們目前的運行速度來計算，你會發現實際的運行速度會比現在低。這是因為我們剔除了蘋果公司所有與新產品相關的收入，包括數據機和前端設備。然後我們假設：「如果出於某種原因，我們仍在與蘋果公司進行訴訟或尋求協議，但尚未達成一致，而他們最終決定將我們完全剝離出去，那會是什麼情況？」 所以，再次強調，這個估算的目的實際上是在許可問題解決之前，為股東提供一個置信度較高的數字。因此，當他們考慮其他方案時，他們就能了解保守情況下核心收益的大致情況。但你說得對，這低於今天的運行率，而且這是有意保守的估計。5.25 美元這個數字也包含一些稅收影響。對我們來說，稅制改革意味著對境外收入略微提高稅率，對境內收入略微降低稅率。總的來說，略微為正，但當我們像我們在分析中那樣把它拆開來看時，5.25 美元的結果是負的，而從分辨率的角度來看是正的。

Got it. That's helpful. For my follow-up, you mentioned a lot of the $1 billion coming out of SG&A, and obviously, you have a lot of accelerated litigation and other targets there. Is it imperative that you actually do sell out licensing in time for 2019 in order to realize that full $1 billion?

知道了。那很有幫助。我的後續問題是，您提到了 SG&A 中 10 億美元的支出，顯然，您有很多加速推進的訴訟和其他目標。是否必須在 2019 年之前全部售罄授權許可，才能實現 10 億美元的目標？

We think there's some contribution, but that's not the primary driver. We'll be -- again, we've grown SG&A within the licensing business beyond that as part of the process of addressing the many other challenges leading up to this. We think we have some opportunities there. We certainly believe that as we look at our -- the road map that we had to reduce overhead-related SG&A over time, that we'll take the steps necessary to accelerate that. So we're not highly dependent solely on a piece dividend to get this number. We think we'll be able to deliver the number.

我們認為這有一定的影響，但這不是主要原因。我們將再次－此外，作為解決導致這種情況發生的許多其他挑戰的一部分，我們在授權業務中增加了銷售、一般及行政費用。我們認為我們在那裡有一些機會。我們堅信，隨著我們審視自身——我們制定了逐步減少與間接費用相關的銷售、一般及行政費用的路線圖，我們將採取必要的措施來加快這一進程。所以，我們並非完全依賴股息收入來獲得這個數字。我們認為我們能夠達到這個數量。

Our next question is from the line of Romit Shah with Nomura Equity.

我們的下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

I had 2. George, just on the tax rate, it's -- there's a lot there. Could you just tell us, within the fiscal '19 EPS guide, what's the tax rate that you're assuming? And then the other question I had was just on NXPI. It would seem that closing this deal in a timely manner would be important -- would be an important part of your value creation story. And so assuming you close or you get regulatory approval from China, could you give us a feel for what the time line would look like from there to the actual closure of the deal?

我有兩份。喬治，光是稅率就有很多問題——這方面有很多東西。能否請您在 2019 財年 EPS 指南中告訴我們，您假設的稅率是多少？然後我的另一個問題是關於NXPI的。及時完成這筆交易似乎很重要——這將是你價值創造故事的重要組成部分。假設您完成了交易或獲得了中國監管部門的批准，您能否大致介紹一下從那時到交易最終完成的時間安排？

So on tax, we've guided the tax rate this year for non-GAAP at 8%. Obviously, with the impact of tax reform and the fine which is not tax deductible, the GAAP number doesn't really hold a lot of information. For '19, we would -- as I said, long term, we expect the tax rate to be somewhat accretive relative to our history. Now we have not guided, but we're in the midteens before in our tax rate. And I would be closer to that number than I would to the guide for '18. And then on NXP, not a lot we can say at this time, other than we're very focused on working with MOFCOM to secure the final approval. Shortly after regulatory approval, the tender process will begin. And then within -- depending on, there's 2 tender processes anticipated. Depending on how that process goes, then you could close within, say, 3 weeks of the approval of regulatory.

因此，在稅收方面，我們今年將非GAAP準則下的稅率定為8%。顯然，由於稅改的影響以及罰款不能抵稅，GAAP 數據實際上並沒有包含太多資訊。對於 2019 年，正如我所說，從長遠來看，我們預計稅率相對於歷史水準將有所上升。現在我們還沒有具體說明，但我們目前的稅率在十幾個百分點左右。而我的實際數字會更接近這個數字，而不是 2018 年的指導數字。至於 NXP，目前我們能說的不多，我們正全力以赴與商務部合作，以獲得最終批准。監管部門批准後不久，招標程序將開始。然後，根據具體情況，預計將有 2 個招標流程。根據審批流程的進展情況，從監管部門批准之日起，大約 3 週內即可完成交易。

Our next question is from the line of Srini Pajjuri with Macquarie Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自麥格理證券的 Srini Pajjuri。

Cristiano, just a question on the RF strategy. It looks like you're winning a lot of designs out there. If I look at the landscape out there, the margin profile in that business is quite strong, at least at the operating margin level. As you expand your footprint, how should we think about QCT margins? Do you see an expansion potential here? Or are you being a little bit aggressive on the pricing side given that you're starting very early?

克里斯蒂亞諾，關於射頻進攻策略我有個問題。看來你的設計作品在許多比賽中都得獎了。縱觀整個產業格局，該產業的利潤率相當強勁，至少在營業利潤率層面是如此。隨著您業務範圍的擴大，我們該如何看待 QCT 利潤率？您認為這裡有擴張潛力嗎？或者說，考慮到你們起步很早，定價方面是不是有點過於激進了？

Thank you for the question. Look, we talk about in our 2019 projections, I think this could contribute $2 billion to $3 billion in revenue. And I think we're starting to, now as we have the complete portfolio and, particularly, the ones that have higher value such as the PA and the high filter content modules, we see as an opportunity for us to grow faster than the market because we attach an existing MSM and an expansion of margin contribution in the device. And I think that's consistent with the strategy we have pursued of diversifying and growing in other areas leveraging our existing channel.

謝謝你的提問。你看，我們在 2019 年的預測中提到，我認為這可以帶來 20 億至 30 億美元的收入。我認為我們現在開始做到這一點了，因為我們擁有完整的產品組合，特別是像 PA 和高過濾含量模組這樣具有更高價值的產品，我們看到了一個比市場增長更快的機會，因為我們將現有的 MSM 附加到設備中，並擴大了利潤貢獻。我認為這與我們一直以來奉行的多元化發展策略是一致的，即利用我們現有的管道在其他領域實現成長。

Our next question is from the line of James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

I had a couple of quick follow-up questions. I guess, the first one for Cristiano, you talked about bringing to market a mobile device, 5G in 2019. At the same time, we've heard a range of comments from carriers on their own outlooks for 5G. So maybe you can help us understand kind of the circumstances in the geographies where 5G starts to make sense first and then where we would see it develop from there. And then, I guess, my second follow-up question is, just on the cost containment or reduction program, what are the things that would allow you to expand that further and further reduce expenses versus what are the competing elements that may limit it to that roughly $1 billion target?

我還有幾個後續問題。我想，對於克里斯蒂亞諾來說，第一個問題是，你談到在 2019 年將一款 5G 行動裝置推向市場。同時，我們也聽到了營運商們對自身 5G 前景的各種看法。所以，或許您可以幫助我們了解一下，在哪些地區，5G 首先開始發揮作用，然後我們會看到它在哪些地區發展。那麼，我的第二個後續問題是，關於成本控製或削減計劃，有哪些因素可以使您進一步擴大該計劃並進一步降低支出，而又有哪些相互競爭的因素可能會將其限制在大約 10 億美元的目標範圍內？

Thank you, James, for the question. I will take the first one, and I'll ask George to answer the second question. So on 5G, I think 5G, as it becomes a significant contributor of volumes, we're really looking at the fiscal 2020, but early launches in '19 are very important. In particular, for our position in the chipset, I think early launches and an ability to cover that globally define your competitive position and the ability to have a mature product so you can ramp volumes in premium devices towards fiscal '20. As you think about the launches in geographies, we see activity across all the developed markets. We see activity in the United States with at least 2 of the 4 carriers that is consistent with the time line of starting to have the devices launching in the first half of '19. We see in Europe at least 3 operators. You should expect in markets such as the U.K., in markets such as Germany, you're going to see high-degree activity. Many of those operators, we had announced trial activities, and the time line is the same as the first half of 2019. Of course, you have Korea with all of the operators driving to the time frame. You do have a technology race there. You have Australia in the same time frame. And you have Japan towards the second half of '19, beginning of 2020. The most significant data point is the one that I'm providing last, which is China Mobile. In an event that we had in China last week, I think, the executive management of China Mobile made a presentation, together with Qualcomm, talking about a very large-scale activity in the second half of '19. The reason China is important because China is a very technology-focused and hardware-focused market. And as you look at the position that the Chinese OEMs have in the market, that enables an acceleration of the scale for the smartphone market. So China is likely going to be a significant development in the second half of '19. Thank you.

謝謝你的提問，詹姆斯。我來回答第一個問題，第二個問題請喬治回答。所以關於 5G，我認為隨著 5G 成為銷售的重要貢獻者，我們真正關注的是 2020 財年，但 2019 年的早期推出非常重要。特別是就我們在晶片組領域的地位而言，我認為早期發布和全球覆蓋能力決定了你的競爭地位，以及擁有成熟產品的能力，這樣你就可以在 2020 財年之前提高高端設備的產量。從地理分佈來看，我們看到所有已開發市場都有活躍的新產品發布活動。我們看到美國至少有 4 家營運商中的 2 家開展了相關活動，這與 2019 年上半年開始推出這些設備的時間表一致。我們在歐洲至少看到了3家營運商。在英國、德國等市場，你會看到高度活躍的交易活動。我們已經宣布對其中許多業者進行試運行活動，時間表與 2019 年上半年相同。當然，韓國的所有業者都在按時完成任務。那裡的確存在著一場技術競賽。澳洲也處於同一時段。而日本則在 2019 年下半年到 2020 年初之間。最重要的數據點是我最後提供的數據，也就是中國移動的數據。我認為，在上週我們在中國舉辦的一次活動中，中國移動的高層與高通公司一起做了報告，談到了2019年下半年的一項非常大規模的活動。中國之所以重要，是因為中國是一個非常注重技術和硬體的市場。從中國手機廠商在市場上的地位來看，這能夠加速智慧型手機市場的規模擴張。因此，中國很可能成為 2019 年下半年一個重要的發展節點。謝謝。

Again, on OpEx, I think the -- if you think about our R&D, we're always going to be focused on making the level of R&D investment that is necessary to keep us ahead in things like generation transistors, where you're seeing today. So the ramp -- one of the ramps, the key biggest part of the ramp in spending over the last couple of years has really been tied to 5G. It's absolutely critical, not only to the ability of the chip business to come out very strongly and then leadership position in the early phase of the generation. But it's also why the value of our licensing program remains strong throughout the ecosystem. So you're going to see us take actions that are consistent with maintaining a strong level of R&D to preserve that position over time. We do think that SG&A has been inflated by a number of the challenges that we've seen over time. We think we have the opportunity to take that down, something in the order of 200 to 300 basis points on a stabilized basis. And we will look very strong within the industry with SG&A at that level. It'll look like a very appropriate cost structure. But we'll always have a little more focus on R&D because, quite frankly, we have the channels to get a return on that R&D, not only from the chip business and the licensing business, but we're now seeing an even greater return on R&D as we expand in the automotive, IoT, networking, mobile compute. All of these markets are looking to the technologies that we lead in, in mobile as part of their next road map. And so we think that's ahead of us, we think that's part of the growth and we think anything we do on this $1 billion OpEx action will be consistent with that outlook.

再說營運支出，我認為——如果你想想我們的研發，我們將始終專注於進行必要的研發投資，以使我們在諸如晶體管等技術領域保持領先地位，就像你今天看到的那樣。因此，過去幾年支出成長的關鍵部分——其中一個成長點——實際上與 5G 有關。這至關重要，不僅關係到晶片產業能否強勢崛起，並在該代早期階段佔據領導地位。但也因為如此，我們的授權許可計劃在整個生態系統中仍然具有強大的價值。因此，你們將會看到我們採取與維持強大的研發水準一致的行動，以長期維持這一地位。我們認為，隨著時間的推移，我們所看到的一些挑戰導致銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A）增加。我們認為我們有機會將其降低，在穩定的基礎上降低 200 到 300 個基點。憑藉這一水準的銷售、管理及行政費用，我們在業界將顯得非常強大。這將是一個非常合理的成本結構。但我們將始終更加重視研發，因為坦白說，我們有通路從研發中獲得回報，不僅來自晶片業務和授權業務，而且隨著我們在汽車、物聯網、網路、行動運算領域的擴張，我們現在看到了更大的研發回報。所有這些市場都將我們領先的行動技術視為其未來發展路線圖的一部分。因此，我們認為這是未來的發展方向，也是成長的一部分，我們認為我們在這項 10 億美元的營運支出行動中所做的任何事情都將與這一前景相符。

Our next question is from the line of Brett Simpson with Arete.

我們的下一個問題來自 Brett Simpson 與 Arete 的對話。

I just had a question about the margin structure in QCT long term. I guess, when you look at leadership franchises in semiconductor, you've seen margins structure rise over the last few years. Typically, leadership franchises are returning 40% or so operating margins. And if I look at your QCT PBT margins, (inaudible) disappointing in the 4G era. So just wondering, when you look to 5G and you believe you have a competitive advantage, a structural competitive advantage in this market and you're going to be selling more platform as RF and base band, and RF has been a much higher returns business than QCT over the years, is it a path where you see the QCT margins starting to inflect and you can reflect the returns of a leadership franchise long term? And I've got a follow-up.

我有個關於QCT長期保證金結構的問題。我想，如果你觀察半導體產業的領導企業，你會發現過去幾年利潤率結構有所上升。通常情況下，領導特許經營權的營業利潤率約為 40%。如果我看一下你們的 QCT PBT 利潤率，（聽不清楚）在 4G 時代令人失望。所以我想問一下，當您展望 5G 市場，並且認為您擁有競爭優勢，在這個市場中擁有結構性競爭優勢，並且您將銷售更多射頻和基帶平台，而多年來射頻業務的回報率一直比 QCT 高得多時，您是否認為 QCT 的利潤率會開始出現拐點，並且您可以長期反映出領先特許經營權的回報反映出領先特許經營權的回報？我還有一個後續問題。

Sure, Brett. This is George. Yes, we -- as we said, we expect QCT margins to continue to improve over time and rise above the 20% level. But one of the things I would point out, we've said that the growth in adjacencies has been a positive in that respect, and it's certainly growing. It is accretive to the margin profile and I think is getting us into markets where the structure -- the margin structure is more attractive over time. And so we'll continue to push hard on margin expansion. And I should point out, as -- the 2019 performance that we've put out for the company doesn't include the margin benefit that we would expect to see as we enter the 5G era, where we get both improvements in share and improvements in ASPs in the new devices. And that's part of even in the core business where we're going to see expansion of margin.

當然，布雷特。這是喬治。是的，正如我們所說，我們預計 QCT 的利潤率會隨著時間的推移而繼續提高，並上升到 20% 以上的水平。但我想指出的一點是，我們已經說過，鄰近區域的成長在這方面是一個正面的訊號，而且它肯定還在成長。它能提升利潤率，我認為它能讓我們進入利潤率結構隨著時間的推移更具吸引力的市場。因此，我們將繼續大力推進利潤率擴張。我應該指出，我們公佈的 2019 年公司業績並未包含我們預期在進入 5G 時代後將看到的利潤率增長，屆時我們將在新設備的市場份額和平均售價方面都獲得提升。即使在核心業務領域，我們也將看到利潤率的擴大。

Okay. And maybe just a follow-up on the Samsung arrangement that you announced. Does it have any bearing on how you think about foundry relationships long term? I think in the last couple of years, you've been exclusively using Samsung LSI at 14 nanometer, and I'm wondering whether that's something you think will continue as you move to 7 or -- particularly with this recent agreement with Samsung, or will you be multi-sourcing at leading edge going forward?

好的。或許還可以就您宣布的與三星的合作安排做個後續說明。這是否對您如何看待與代工廠的長期合作關係有任何影響？我認為在過去的幾年裡，你們一直只使用三星的 14 奈米 LSI，我想知道隨著你們向 7 奈米製程過渡，特別是考慮到最近與三星達成的協議，你們是否還會繼續使用三星的 LSI，或者你們未來是否會在尖端技術方面採用多種供應商？

Brett, it's Steve. In terms of sourcing agreements, I would say we make them on an individual basis, depending on what node and the details of the node. So it really just depends on the generation in terms of where we go. Now that being said, I think it is advantageous for us to have a broader set of assets in the company to be able to resolve issues with companies. And so we view our wafer volume and the fact that we have wafer volume from RF to the leading node as being a strategic asset for us. It's actually proven to be that way over the last several years. So I won't talk about where we're going, but I do think it is something that helps us strategically.

布雷特，我是史蒂夫。就採購協議而言，我認為我們會根據具體節點和節點詳情逐一制定。所以，我們未來的發展方向，真的取決於我們這一代。話雖如此，我認為公司擁有更廣泛的資產組合對我們解決與其他公司的問題是有利的。因此，我們認為我們的晶圓產量，以及我們擁有從射頻到領先節點的晶圓產量這一事實，對我們來說是一項戰略資產。過去幾年的情況實際上已經證明了這一點。所以我不會談論我們的未來方向，但我認為這在戰略上對我們有所幫助。

Our next question is from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

So let me ask a question. 2 quick questions here. First, on the QTL side, when you put your fiscal '19 earnings targets out there, it looks like you have a high level of confidence that the licensing issues will be resolved. So my first question is, what gives you that confidence? And then the second question that's somewhat related is, I wondered if we could get an update, if any, on the unnamed dispute that's going on. And I assume, given the arrangements today and agreements, that, that second dispute is not with Samsung. So those are the 2 questions.

那麼，請容許我問一個問題。這裡有兩個簡單的問題。首先，就 QTL 而言，當你公佈 2019 財年的獲利目標時，看起來你對授權問題能夠得到解決抱有很高的信心。所以我的第一個問題是，是什麼讓你如此有自信？第二個問題與此有些關聯，我想知道我們能否了解一下正在進行的未公開的糾紛的最新進展（如果有的話）。鑑於目前的安排和協議，我認為第二個爭議並非與三星有關。所以，這就是兩個問題。

Ross, maybe I'll start and I'll kick it to Don to provide some detail here. But on the disputes, a couple of things. I think there are a number of legal milestones that occurred this year that are helpful. Typically, in a licensing dispute, legal milestones provide an opportunity and a forcing function for the parties to sit down and to finally work things out. We've seen that in the case of our past history both recently and over the last decade, which I think is helpful. Don can -- with any follow-up, can answer that pretty well. I'm sorry, you had another question toward the end.

羅斯，或許我可以先開始，然後讓唐來補充細節。但關於爭議，有幾點需要說明。我認為今年發生的一些法律里程碑事件是有益的。通常情況下，在許可糾紛中，法律里程碑為雙方提供了一個機會和一種強制力，促使他們坐下來最終解決問題。我們從過去十年的歷史中已經看到了這一點，我認為這很有幫助。唐可以－－透過任何後續追問，他都能很好地回答這個問題。抱歉，您最後還有一個問題。

So on the unnamed other licensee, our practice is -- has been that while we still believe there is -- it's productive to continue with negotiations, that we don't name the licensee in the dispute. It's only when we get to the point where we feel like we've exhausted all practical activities there, and so you should take that as we're still negotiating to see if we can resolve the dispute.

所以對於其他未具名的被授權人，我們的做法是──一直以來──雖然我們仍然認為繼續談判是有益的，但我們不會在爭議中指明被授權人的名字。只有當我們覺得我們已經竭盡全力嘗試所有實際方法時，你才會明白我們仍在談判，看看能否解決爭端。

And I would say, also, this is Steve again, I think that the significance of the agreements that we announced today with Samsung, I think, are -- I think they're pretty evident. But we're quite pleased with those agreements. They're consistent with what we have done in the past in our forward-looking plan. I think they also provide a good benchmark or reference point for our general licensing program moving forward as well. So I think those things, to us, provide good indicators, and I think we're headed in the right direction as a business.

另外，我再次以史蒂夫的身份說，我認為我們今天與三星宣布的協議的意義非常明顯。但我們對這些協議相當滿意。它們與我們過去在前瞻性計劃中所做的工作是一致的。我認為它們也為我們未來的通用授權計劃提供了一個很好的基準或參考點。所以我認為這些對我們來說都是很好的指標，我認為我們作為一個企業正朝著正確的方向前進。

Our next question is from the line of John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

I guess, my first question is for Cristiano. Cristiano, I just want to make sure I understand the RF market opportunity. To what extent can you guys drive revenue on the 4G node versus the 5G node? And, I guess, as you think about 5G, it sounds like your value proposition goes up significantly at 5G. How are you guys thinking about sort of the dollar capture potential per phone of the incremental dollar capture?

我想，我的第一個問題是問克里斯蒂亞諾的。克里斯蒂亞諾，我只是想確保我了解射頻市場的機會。你們在多大程度上能夠透過 4G 節點實現營收成長，而 5G 節點則無法實現？而且，我想，當你考慮 5G 時，你的價值主張似乎在 5G 時代大幅提升了。你們如何看待每支手機帶來的增量收入潛力？

John, thank you for the question. In 4G, we have been in the process to complete our product portfolio. We have been players within the antenna tuner and the envelope tracker. And I think now we add into the portfolio, starting to have designs and get rid of chip volume with our GaAs PAs and filters and actually going after the higher value segment, which is the multimode PA and the payment modules. And I think you're going to start -- that traction starting to happen within the second half of the year. That's the reason we talk about China in the China announcement with our OEMs. I think the China nature of the market, they look more of a system solution. I think as we establish our business there, we see a power off our MSM platform and be able to actually have complete platform. And so it's natural that you see that reaction coming from the China OEMs, and that's how we're going to start the build the business in 4G. As you said, 5G changed the landscape significantly because [a change is] giving a little bit more voice to the system solution provider and the baseband provider. But what -- in terms of technology and the RF design that goes in the technology launch configuration as well as the opportunity for innovation with a tunable front end. And as we said earlier, I think we expect that to be an expansion of margins for QCT and allow us to grow faster than the market.

約翰，謝謝你的提問。在 4G 領域，我們一直在完善我們的產品組合。我們曾參與天線調諧器和包絡追蹤器的研發。我認為現在我們增加了產品組合，開始設計並減少GaAs PA和濾波器的晶片產量，真正瞄準更高價值的細分市場，即多模PA和支付模組。我認為你們將會開始——這種勢頭將在今年下半年開始顯現。這就是為什麼我們在與OEM廠商的中國發表會上會談到中國的原因。我認為，考慮到中國市場的特性，他們更傾向於系統性的解決方案。我認為，隨著我們在那裡建立業務，我們將看到我們 MSM 平台的強大力量，並能夠真正擁有一個完整的平台。因此，中國OEM廠商做出這樣的反應也就不足為奇了，而這正是我們開始在4G領域建立業務的方式。正如你所說，5G 顯著改變了格局，因為（這種改變）讓系統解決方案提供者和基頻提供者有了更多的話語權。但是，就技術、技術發布配置中的射頻設計以及可調諧前端的創新機會而言，又會如何呢？正如我們之前所說，我們預計這將擴大 QCT 的利潤率，並使我們能夠比市場成長得更快。

That's helpful. And then, George, maybe as my follow-up. In your comments around the chipset guidance being below seasonal for March, you called out those thin modems in China. I'm just kind of curious, of the 2, which one is sort of the bigger driver of the below seasonal for the March quarter on the chipset business?

那很有幫助。然後，喬治，也許作為我的後續。您在評論晶片組 3 月的指導意見低於往年同期水準時，提到了中國的那些超薄調變解調器。我只是有點好奇，在晶片組業務三月季度業績出現以下季節性波動的情況下，哪一個因素的影響更大？

Yes, the -- I would say from a below seasonal, the China certainly is a factor because the drop-off at the end of December was more significant than expected. I would say, sequentially, clearly, the big pullback by the modem customer is an important factor as I look sequentially for the chip business.

是的，我認為——低於季節性水平而言，中國肯定是一個因素，因為12月底的降幅比預期的要大。我認為，從順序上看，調製解調器客戶的大幅撤退顯然是一個重要因素，因為我從順序上看晶片業務。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Mollenkopf, do you have anything further to add before adjourning the call?

今天的問答環節到此結束。莫倫科夫先生，在休會之前，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Thank you. Yes. I just wanted to thank the employees for their hard work and for the good quarter, for the hard work in terms of not only delivering across the expectations but also for the number of announcements that have gone out here over the last quarter or so. So keep up the good work. I really appreciate it. Thank you. We'll see you all next time.

謝謝。是的。我只想感謝員工們的辛勤工作，感謝他們在本季度取得的良好業績，不僅達到了預期目標，而且在過去一個季度左右的時間裡發布了許多公告。所以繼續努力。我非常感謝。謝謝。我們下次再見。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。