派樂騰 (PTON) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Peloton's Second Quarter Fiscal 2022 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

早上好，女士們，先生們。感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Peloton 的 2022 財年第二季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker host, Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給您的演講主持人，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's Second Quarter Fiscal '22 Conference Call. Joining today's call are John Foley, our Co-Founder and CEO; and CFO, Jill Woodworth.

早上好，歡迎來到 Peloton 的第二季度 '22 財年電話會議。加入今天的電話會議的是我們的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 John Foley；和首席財務官吉爾伍德沃思。

Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

我們對您的問題的評論和答复僅反映了管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的陳述，這些陳述是聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩個文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Peter. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today on short notice. As you've probably seen by now, we made a number of important announcements this morning, all of which are intended to ensure Peloton is well positioned for sustainable profitable growth.

謝謝你，彼得。大家早上好，感謝您今天在短時間內加入我們。正如您現在可能已經看到的那樣，我們今天早上發布了許多重要公告，所有這些都旨在確保 Peloton 為可持續的盈利增長做好準備。

I'd like to start by stating I love Peloton. I love the role we play in connecting the world through fitness. Our goal has always been to bring immersive and challenging workouts into people's lives in a more accessible, affordable and efficient way. We've done a great job of delivering on that vision, and our large and loyal member community is proof of that. But we also acknowledge that we have made missteps along the way. To meet market demand, we scaled our operations too rapidly, and we overinvested in certain areas of our business. We own this. I own this, and we are holding ourselves accountable. That starts today.

我想首先說明我喜歡 Peloton。我喜歡我們在通過健身連接世界方面所扮演的角色。我們的目標始終是以更方便、更實惠和更有效的方式將身臨其境和具有挑戰性的鍛煉帶入人們的生活。我們在實現這一願景方面做得很好，我們龐大而忠誠的會員社區就是證明。但我們也承認，我們在此過程中犯了錯誤。為了滿足市場需求，我們過快地擴大業務規模，並且在某些業務領域過度投資。我們擁有這個。我擁有這個，我們要對自己負責。從今天開始。

Early today, we announced several important leadership changes. I will be taking a new role as Executive Chair of the Board, and Barry McCarthy will be assuming the role of CEO. I couldn't think of a better person for that job as we transition to Peloton's next phase of leadership. Barry is a tremendously talented executive with deep experience in growing content-dependent digital subscription businesses and doing so profitably. And he has partnered successfully with 2 extraordinarily talented founders during this journey. Barry most recently led Spotify's global advertising business and also served as CFO overseeing their direct listing and helping to establish Spotify as the global brand it is today. Many of you may also know that Barry served as Netflix CFO for over 10 years. Plus, Barry is a longtime passionate Peloton member who shares our team's enthusiasm for our company's vision of improving lives through home fitness. I'll be partnering closely with him as we address the challenges facing our business and work to deliver on the value inherent in Peloton.

今天早些時候，我們宣布了幾項重要的領導層變動。我將擔任董事會執行主席，巴里·麥卡錫（Barry McCarthy）將擔任首席執行官。在我們過渡到 Peloton 下一階段的領導層時，我想不出比這更好的人選了。 Barry 是一位才華橫溢的高管，在發展依賴內容的數字訂閱業務方面擁有豐富的經驗，並以此獲利。在此過程中，他與 2 位才華橫溢的創始人成功合作。 Barry 最近領導 Spotify 的全球廣告業務，並擔任首席財務官，監督他們的直接上市，並幫助將 Spotify 打造成今天的全球品牌。你們中的許多人可能還知道，巴里擔任 Netflix 首席財務官超過 10 年。此外，Barry 是一位長期充滿激情的 Peloton 成員，他與我們的團隊一樣，對我們公司通過家庭健身改善生活的願景充滿熱情。在我們解決業務面臨的挑戰並努力實現 Peloton 固有的價值時，我將與他密切合作。

I'll now turn to our other announcements today, starting with an overview of the initiatives we're implementing to strengthen our business for the long term, beginning with today's restructuring program. Once fully implemented, we expect these initiatives to yield at least $800 million of annual run rate cost savings through operating expense efficiencies and material improvements in our Connected Fitness gross margin. Jill will speak to the financial implications of this program shortly. In addition, we currently expect to exit fiscal year 2022 with approximately $1.2 billion of cash and $500 million of additional revolver capacity.

我現在將轉向我們今天的其他公告，首先概述我們為長期加強我們的業務而實施的舉措，從今天的重組計劃開始。一旦完全實施，我們預計這些舉措將通過運營費用效率和 Connected Fitness 毛利率的實質性改善，每年節省至少 8 億美元的運營成本。吉爾不久將談到該計劃的財務影響。此外，我們目前預計將在 2022 財年結束時擁有約 12 億美元的現金和 5 億美元的額外左輪手槍產能。

Over the last several months, our executive management team has worked diligently to identify the areas in need of adjustment. The restructuring program we announced today includes a meaningful reduction in the size of our teams across nearly all of our business operations from corporate functions to manufacturing, to logistics and R&D and at nearly all levels. This was a very difficult decision for our management team who has had the privilege of working alongside many of these team members from the beginning, but it's a necessary one to get Peloton back on track. We greatly value the contributions of our impacted employees and will work hard to assist them in their transitions.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們的執行管理團隊一直在努力確定需要調整的領域。我們今天宣布的重組計劃包括大幅縮減我們幾乎所有業務運營的團隊規模，從企業職能到製造，再到物流和研發以及幾乎所有級別。對於我們的管理團隊來說，這是一個非常艱難的決定，他們有幸從一開始就與其中許多團隊成員一起工作，但這是讓 Peloton 重回正軌的必要決定。我們非常重視受影響員工的貢獻，並將努力幫助他們完成過渡。

Beyond this, we are taking significant structural actions to align our business and build margin back into our hardware economics. This includes optimizing our logistics footprint by reducing our owned and operated warehousing and delivery network as well as generating efficiencies across procurement and manufacturing.

除此之外，我們正在採取重大的結構性行動來調整我們的業務並將利潤重新納入我們的硬件經濟。這包括通過減少我們擁有和運營的倉儲和交付網絡以及提高采購和製造效率來優化我們的物流足跡。

We've also made the decision to wind down the development of Peloton Output Park. While we still see strategic merit in diversifying our manufacturing footprint and developing North American capabilities over the long term, we believe Tonic and our third-party manufacturing partners can support our growth for the next few years.

我們還決定停止 Peloton Output Park 的開發。雖然我們仍然看到多元化我們的製造足跡和長期發展北美能力的戰略優勢，但我們相信 Tonic 和我們的第三方製造合作夥伴可以支持我們未來幾年的增長。

Our objective is to best position Peloton for sustainable growth while establishing a clear path to consistent profitability and free cash flow as we pursue the significant connected fitness opportunity.

我們的目標是為 Peloton 提供最佳定位以實現可持續增長，同時在我們追求重要的互聯健身機會時，為持續盈利和自由現金流建立清晰的道路。

Our restructuring will allow us to streamline our teams and reporting structures and create clear lines of accountability for all aspects of our P&L. The net result will be better and faster decision-making and a more focused team to drive growth and profitability.

我們的重組將使我們能夠精簡我們的團隊和報告結構，並為我們的損益表的各個方面建立明確的問責制。最終結果將是更好、更快的決策以及更專注的團隊來推動增長和盈利。

As we adjust our operations, 2 key priorities will not change. First, our member experience. Our roster of instructors is foundational to the Peloton user experience, and we will continue to invest in our content creators for the benefit of our growing member base. We will also continue to invest in our platforms through innovative hardware, software and content experiences, improving our offering for both current and prospective members.

隨著我們調整運營，兩個關鍵優先事項不會改變。首先，我們的會員體驗。我們的講師名單是 Peloton 用戶體驗的基礎，我們將繼續投資於我們的內容創作者，以造福於我們不斷增長的會員群。我們還將通過創新的硬件、軟件和內容體驗繼續投資於我們的平台，改進我們為現有和潛在會員提供的服務。

Second, we remain committed to increasing accessibility, both in terms of overall cost and in terms of the value we bring to our members. This is critical in order for us to deliver on the long-term Connected Fitness growth opportunity.

其次，我們仍然致力於提高可訪問性，無論是在總體成本方面還是在我們為會員帶來的價值方面。這對於我們提供長期的 Connected Fitness 增長機會至關重要。

There's one more announcement we made this morning that, while not directly related to our restructuring, I'd like to address on this morning's call. In addition to Barry McCarthy joining our Board of Directors, we've appointed 2 new directors, Angel Mendez and Jonathan Mildenhall. Angel is a proven supply chain leader, and Jonathan is a globally recognized marketing and advertising executive. We are thrilled to welcome them to our Board, and we look forward to benefiting from their unique perspectives.

我們今天早上還宣布了一項聲明，雖然與我們的重組沒有直接關係，但我想在今天上午的電話會議上發言。除了 Barry McCarthy 加入我們的董事會外，我們還任命了 2 位新董事，Angel Mendez 和 Jonathan Mildenhall。 Angel 是公認的供應鏈領導者，Jonathan 是全球公認的營銷和廣告主管。我們很高興歡迎他們加入我們的董事會，我們期待從他們獨特的視角中受益。

In addition, William Lynch has transitioned from President of Peloton to a full-time member of the Board. We also want to thank Erik Blachford for his many contributions to Peloton. Erik is stepping down from his role on the Board, and we wish him all the best as he turns his attention to other personal and professional endeavors.

此外，威廉·林奇 (William Lynch) 已從 Peloton 總裁轉變為董事會的全職成員。我們還要感謝 Erik Blachford 對 Peloton 的許多貢獻。 Erik 即將卸任董事會職務，我們祝他一切順利，因為他將注意力轉向其他個人和專業工作。

Finally, I want to acknowledge that this has been a very humbling time for all of us at Peloton. Since we founded Peloton in 2012, we've transformed our company from a 5-person fitness group into a loyal community of nearly 6.7 million members worldwide. Throughout this period, our loyal member community and incredibly committed team have been a great source of strength to me personally. I want to sincerely thank all of you for your support.

最後，我要承認，對於 Peloton 的所有人來說，這都是一段非常謙卑的時刻。自 2012 年成立 Peloton 以來，我們已經將公司從一個 5 人的健身團體轉變為一個在全球擁有近 670 萬會員的忠誠社區。在此期間，我們忠誠的會員社區和極其敬業的團隊一直是我個人的重要力量來源。我要衷心感謝大家的支持。

With that, I'll hand it over to Jill.

有了這個，我會把它交給吉爾。

Thanks, John. I will start with a review of our second quarter results. As you know, we prereleased our summary results on January 20. In the quarter, we generated total revenue of $1.13 billion, representing 6% year-over-year growth and an underlying 56% 2-year CAGR. Excluding Precor, which we acquired on April 1 of last year, core Peloton revenue was approximately flat year-over-year.

謝謝，約翰。我將從回顧我們的第二季度業績開始。如您所知，我們於 1 月 20 日預先發布了我們的總結結果。在本季度，我們創造了 11.3 億美元的總收入，同比增長 6%，2 年復合年增長率為 56%。不包括我們去年 4 月 1 日收購的 Precor，Peloton 的核心收入與去年同期相比大致持平。

Relative to expectations, our revenue reflected lower-than-expected demand, largely offset by a favorable mix towards Bike+ and lower financing penetration rate. Engagement per Connected Fitness subscription totaled 15.5 workouts per month. On a 2-year basis, engagement was up 23% over the second quarter of 2020. As expected, we've seen significant month-over-month improvement in engagement from December to January, with sequential growth exceeding levels we've seen in previous non-COVID years. Overall, we believe our engagement levels are very healthy, particularly when viewed against fitness industry norms and are likely to remain higher than witnessed during comparable pre-COVID periods.

相對於預期，我們的收入反映了低於預期的需求，這在很大程度上被對 Bike+ 的有利組合和較低的融資滲透率所抵消。每個 Connected Fitness 訂閱的參與度總計為每月 15.5 次鍛煉。在 2 年的基礎上，參與度比 2020 年第二季度增長了 23%。正如預期的那樣，從 12 月到 1 月，我們看到參與度逐月顯著提高，連續增長超過了我們在以前的非 COVID 年份。總體而言，我們認為我們的參與度非常健康，尤其是在與健身行業規範相比時，並且可能會保持在可比的 COVID 之前時期更高的水平。

Our average net monthly Connected Fitness churn remained low at 0.79% in the quarter. We continue to be pleased with our overall platform retention as our 12-, 18- and 24-month retention rates continue to improve year-over-year.

本季度，我們的平均每月 Connected Fitness 淨流失率保持在 0.79% 的低水平。我們繼續對我們的整體平台保留率感到滿意，因為我們的 12、18 和 24 個月的保留率繼續逐年提高。

At the end of Q2, we had 862,000 app subscribers, representing 38% year-over-year growth, slightly ahead of our internal expectations. App subscribers declined modestly on a sequential basis primarily due to the 60-day free trials offered in November.

在第二季度末，我們擁有 862,000 名應用訂閱用戶，同比增長 38%，略高於我們的內部預期。主要由於 11 月提供的 60 天免費試用，應用程序訂閱者環比小幅下降。

Moving to gross margin. Gross margin for the quarter was 24.7%, slightly ahead of our expectations, primarily due to our subscription segment. Our Connected Fitness Product segment gross margin of 6.4% was modestly below our guidance. Relative to our expectations, our Connected Fitness margin reflects favorable timing of inventory receipts, a slightly lower-than-planned holiday promotion impact and a benefit from a modest mix shift to Bike+. These benefits were offset by significant logistics cost pressure and a modest increase in Tread+ return reserve. Subscription gross margin was 67.9%, and subscription contribution margin was 71.4%, ahead of expectations.

轉向毛利率。本季度的毛利率為 24.7%，略高於我們的預期，主要是由於我們的訂閱業務。我們的互聯健身產品部門毛利率為 6.4%，略低於我們的預期。相對於我們的預期，我們的 Connected Fitness 利潤率反映了有利的庫存接收時機、略低於計劃的假日促銷影響以及適度向 Bike+ 轉變的好處。這些好處被巨大的物流成本壓力和 Tread+ 退貨儲備的適度增加所抵消。認購毛利率為67.9%，認購貢獻率為71.4%，超出預期。

Turning to OpEx. Sales and marketing expense was 30.8% of total revenue, reflecting a return to typical holiday marketing this year. G&A expense was 21.9% of total revenue. We've made significant investments in teams, systems and member support, which accounted for this increased spending. G&A will be a significant focus for our restructuring, and you should expect dollar declines in this line item versus our first half run rate.

轉向運營支出。銷售和營銷費用佔總收入的 30.8%，反映出今年回歸典型的假日營銷。 G&A 費用佔總收入的 21.9%。我們在團隊、系統和成員支持方面進行了大量投資，這是增加支出的原因。 G&A 將是我們重組的一個重要重點，您應該預計該項目的美元與我們上半年的運行率相比會有所下降。

R&D expense was 8.8% of total revenue versus 4.5% in the year ago period. The year-over-year deleverage reflects the onboarding of several acqui-hires and the R&D team from Precor. We believe our investments in R&D drive new product features and functionality that create and sustain our strategic advantage.

研發費用佔總收入的 8.8%，而去年同期為 4.5%。同比下降反映了 Precor 的幾名收購人員和研發團隊的入職。我們相信，我們在研發方面的投資推動了新產品特性和功能的發展，從而創造並維持了我們的戰略優勢。

Rolling everything up, our Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss of $266.5 million was better than expected. We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of cash and cash equivalents and have additional liquidity in the form of an untapped $500 million credit facility.

綜上所述，我們第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2.665 億美元，好於預期。我們在本季度結束時擁有 16 億美元的現金和現金等價物，並以未開發的 5 億美元信貸額度的形式擁有額外的流動性。

Before reviewing our outlook, I'd like to start by providing a bit more detail on the actions we're taking to address our cost structure. The restructuring we announced today will help accelerate decision-making, increase accountability, create a more efficient and flexible supply chain, reduce capital intensity and ensure we are optimizing our spend to support profitable growth. Although it will take time to fully implement, we have spent the past several months developing a detailed plan that provides line of sight to cost reductions that we expect to drive gross margin, EBITDA margin expansion and improve our unit economics.

在回顧我們的前景之前，我想首先提供一些關於我們為解決成本結構而採取的行動的更多細節。我們今天宣布的重組將有助於加快決策制定、加強問責制、創建更高效、更靈活的供應鏈，降低資本密集度，並確保我們優化支出以支持盈利增長。儘管全面實施需要時間，但我們在過去幾個月中製定了詳細的計劃，為降低成本提供了視野，我們預計這將推動毛利率、EBITDA 利潤率的擴大並改善我們的單位經濟性。

We expect this program to generate at least $300 million run rate savings within Connected Fitness COGS by the end of fiscal '24. The majority of the savings will come from efficiencies in procurement, manufacturing and logistics. We will drive immediate benefits from the significant overhaul of our logistics network, which includes consolidating warehouses and shifting volume to variable cost third-party providers.

我們預計到 24 財年結束時，該計劃將在 Connected Fitness COGS 中節省至少 3 億美元的運行率。大部分節省將來自採購、製造和物流方面的效率。我們將從物流網絡的重大改革中獲得直接收益，其中包括整合倉庫和將數量轉移到可變成本的第三方供應商。

We still have further work to do in order to optimize delivery routes, inventory placement and staffing levels but expect these initiatives to meaningfully reduce our cost per delivery over the next several months.

為了優化交付路線、庫存配置和人員配備水平，我們還有進一步的工作要做，但預計這些舉措將在未來幾個月內顯著降低我們的每次交付成本。

Procurement and manufacturing efficiencies will take longer to fully materialize in our P&L as we sell through higher cost inventory.

由於我們通過更高成本的庫存進行銷售，採購和製造效率將需要更長的時間才能完全體現在我們的損益表中。

We also expect a $500 million run rate reduction to annual operating expenses. Key areas of focus include reductions in workforce and marketing, changes in corporate real estate strategy, software expense cuts and reduced outside services spend. Every cost bucket is under scrutiny, and we expect to drive efficiencies across the board. While some of these expense reductions will take time to complete, we can capture most of the run rate savings in fiscal '23. In total, we expect this restructuring program to result in approximately $210 million in onetime charges, of which $80 million will be noncash.

我們還預計年度運營費用將減少 5 億美元。重點關注的領域包括減少勞動力和營銷、改變企業房地產戰略、削減軟件費用和減少外部服務支出。每個成本桶都受到審查，我們希望全面提高效率。雖然其中一些費用削減需要時間才能完成，但我們可以在 23 財年獲得大部分運行率節省。總的來說，我們預計這一重組計劃將產生約 2.1 億美元的一次性費用，其中 8000 萬美元將是非現金費用。

In addition, as John mentioned, we have decided not to pursue North American manufacturing at this time. We believe Tonic and our third-party manufacturing partners can support our growth over the next few years.

此外，正如約翰所說，我們決定此時不追求北美製造。我們相信 Tonic 和我們的第三方製造合作夥伴可以在未來幾年支持我們的增長。

Now on to our outlook. We are reducing our fiscal '22 outlook as we extrapolate trends that we have seen in the first half of the fiscal year continuing into the second, namely the continued reduction in traffic. We are reducing sales and marketing expense meaningfully in the back half of the year as we intend to use the seasonally slower months in late Q3 and Q4 to better understand our baseline post-COVID demand. These cuts will provide critical learning so that we can drive improved efficiencies in fiscal '23. Our goal is to support our brand with acquisition marketing but with laser focus on efficiencies and clearing return hurdles. Also, we anticipate a potential elasticity response to our January 31 delivery and setup surcharges.

現在談談我們的展望。我們正在降低我們的 22 財年展望，因為我們推斷我們在本財年上半年看到的趨勢持續到第二財年，即交通量持續減少。我們將在下半年顯著減少銷售和營銷費用，因為我們打算利用第三季度末和第四季度的季節性放緩月份來更好地了解我們的基線後 COVID 需求。這些削減將提供重要的學習，以便我們能夠在 23 財年提高效率。我們的目標是通過收購營銷支持我們的品牌，但重點關注效率和清除回報障礙。此外，我們預計 1 月 31 日交付和設置附加費的潛在彈性響應。

Lastly, we cannot rule out the potential that our significant restructuring could have some temporary impact on demand generation as our organization adjusts to our new operating model.

最後，我們不能排除隨著我們的組織適應新的運營模式，我們的重大重組可能會對需求產生產生一些暫時影響的可能性。

Based on these factors, we now project $3.7 billion to $3.8 billion of revenue for full year fiscal '22. Our revenue guidance for fiscal '22 incorporates Peloton guide sales starting in April. We expect Peloton guide to represent a small contribution to revenue in Q4. We have decided to pursue a soft launch given the time of year and seasonality of our business, and therefore, the majority of our marketing spend in Q4 will be focused on our existing Connected Fitness products.

基於這些因素，我們現在預計 22 財年全年的收入為 37 億至 38 億美元。我們對 '22 財年的收入指導包括從 4 月開始的 Peloton 指導銷售。我們預計 Peloton 指南對第四季度的收入貢獻很小。鑑於一年中的時間和業務的季節性，我們決定進行軟啟動，因此，我們在第四季度的大部分營銷支出將集中在我們現有的 Connected Fitness 產品上。

For Q3, we expect revenue of $950 million to $1 billion. For fiscal '22, we expect ending Connected Fitness subscriptions of approximately 3 million, implying 670,000 net adds and representing 29% year-over-year growth and a 66% 2-year CAGR for ending subs. For Q3, we expect ending Connected Fitness subscriptions of approximately 2.93 million, implying 160,000 net adds and representing 41% year-over-year growth and an 82% 2-year CAGR for ending subs.

對於第三季度，我們預計收入為 9.5 億美元至 10 億美元。對於 22 財年，我們預計結束的 Connected Fitness 訂閱量約為 300 萬，這意味著淨增加 670,000 個，同比增長 29%，結束訂閱的 2 年復合年增長率為 66%。對於第三季度，我們預計結束的 Connected Fitness 訂閱量約為 293 萬，這意味著淨增加 160,000 個，同比增長 41%，結束訂閱的 2 年復合年增長率為 82%。

For our Connected Fitness segment, we are presenting margin commentary, excluding restructuring charges that are added back in our adjusted EBITDA calculation. We believe this approach will offer more constructive modeling guidance.

對於我們的 Connected Fitness 部門，我們正在提供利潤率評論，不包括在我們調整後的 EBITDA 計算中重新添加的重組費用。我們相信這種方法將提供更具建設性的建模指導。

As we have outlined, our pricing changes and warehouse restructuring will have significant positive impact on our margin structure in Q4. The Q4 implied Connected Fitness margin is expected to be in the mid-teens and will provide a good starting point for us to achieve continued planned improvements in Connected Fitness margin in fiscal '23.

正如我們所概述的，我們的定價變化和倉庫重組將對我們第四季度的利潤率結構產生重大的積極影響。第四季度隱含的 Connected Fitness 利潤率預計將在十幾歲左右，將為我們在 23 財年實現 Connected Fitness 利潤率的持續計劃改進提供一個良好的起點。

With the reduction of our demand plan, we now expect Q3 and full year fiscal '22 Connected Fitness margin of approximately 6% and 11%, respectively. For Q3 and fiscal '22, we expect a subscription contribution margin of 71%.

隨著我們需求計劃的減少，我們現在預計 22 財年第三季度和全年 Connected Fitness 的利潤率分別約為 6% 和 11%。對於第三季度和 '22 財年，我們預計訂閱貢獻率為 71%。

Rolling up our segments, we now expect total company gross margin up 23% in Q3 and 28% for fiscal year '22.

匯總我們的細分市場，我們現在預計公司總毛利率在第三季度增長 23%，在 22 財年增長 28%。

We now expect full year fiscal '22 adjusted EBITDA of negative $675 million to $625 million. We expect negative $140 million to $125 million of adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, reflecting the revised demand forecast. As I discussed earlier, we will start to see the benefits of our restructuring efforts in the second half of fiscal '22, which include planned reductions in media spending and slight benefits to G&A and R&D. As a result, we expect our second half operating expense to be approximately $150 million lower than in the first half, inclusive of restructuring charges.

我們現在預計 22 財年全年調整後的 EBITDA 為負 6.75 億美元至 6.25 億美元。我們預計第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為負 1.4 億美元至 1.25 億美元，反映了修訂後的需求預測。正如我之前所討論的，我們將在 22 財年下半年開始看到我們重組工作的好處，其中包括計劃減少媒體支出以及對 G&A 和研發的輕微好處。因此，我們預計下半年的運營費用將比上半年減少約 1.5 億美元，其中包括重組費用。

Moving on to capital expenditures. With the change in plans around Peloton Output Park, we now expect total CapEx spend for fiscal '22 of approximately $350 million, and that's relative to our initial expectation of $600 million. Coupled with the pause in further showroom expansion, we now expect approximately $100 million and $65 million of total CapEx spend in Q3 and Q4, respectively.

繼續進行資本支出。隨著 Peloton Output Park 周圍計劃的變化，我們現在預計 22 財年的總資本支出約為 3.5 億美元，這與我們最初預期的 6 億美元相比。加上展廳進一步擴張的暫停，我們現在預計第三季度和第四季度的資本支出總額分別約為 1 億美元和 6500 萬美元。

We intend to continue to build out a shell facility in Ohio. Our total spend on POP in fiscal '22 is expected to be in the range of $90 million to $100 million, including $60 million in the back half of the year. We plan to sell both the building and the land by the end of fiscal '23 and recover a majority of the spend upon sale. Beyond this year, you can expect a modest CapEx profile as we work towards a CapEx-light model moving forward.

我們打算繼續在俄亥俄州建造一座殼牌工廠。我們在 22 財年在 POP 上的總支出預計在 9000 萬美元到 1 億美元之間，其中包括下半年的 6000 萬美元。我們計劃在 23 財年末出售建築物和土地，並在出售時收回大部分支出。今年以後，隨著我們努力實現資本支出輕模型，您可以期待適度的資本支出概況。

Moving on to inventory. From a balance sheet perspective, we expect inventories to decrease sequentially in Q3 and further in Q4. We've slowed production to better match our current demand outlook. Our aim is to get back to a normalized inventory balance no later than the end of fiscal '23, driving a more efficient use of our balance sheet going forward.

繼續庫存。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們預計庫存將在第三季度和第四季度進一步下降。我們已經放慢了生產以更好地匹配我們當前的需求前景。我們的目標是在不遲於 23 財年末恢復正常化的庫存平衡，從而推動更有效地使用我們的資產負債表。

Before closing, I'd like to provide a bit more context on how the announcements made today connect with our financial and strategic goals. There are 3 key objectives to highlight: reestablishing Peloton as a sustainable growth company, restoring our Connected Fitness hardware margins and generating consistent positive free cash flow to self-fund our business.

在結束之前，我想提供更多關於今天發布的公告如何與我們的財務和戰略目標聯繫起來的背景信息。有 3 個關鍵目標需要強調：將 Peloton 重建為一家可持續增長的公司，恢復我們的 Connected Fitness 硬件利潤率，並產生持續的正自由現金流來為我們的業務提供資金。

We are at a critical inflection point in our business. These are the early days of a significant transformation of our operating model to achieve a better balance of growth and efficiency. We are lowering our second half outlook to reflect the short-term headwinds that I discussed earlier as well as intentional actions to position our company for future success. We understand that this prompts questions about our future top line potential. To be clear, we believe we have significant growth potential ahead.

我們正處於業務的關鍵轉折點。這些是我們運營模式重大轉型的初期，以實現增長和效率的更好平衡。我們正在下調下半年的展望，以反映我之前討論過的短期不利因素，以及為公司未來成功定位而採取的有意行動。我們知道這會引發有關我們未來頂線潛力的問題。需要明確的是，我們相信我們未來具有巨大的增長潛力。

The paid fitness industry has a long-term track record of growth across cycles, and we continue to believe that Connected Fitness is the most attractive subsegment. The Connected Fitness category grew during calendar year '21 even against very difficult COVID comps. And in recent months, continues to maintain a significantly higher market share than in pre-COVID period. As work-from-home and hybrid remain prevalent themes that are likely to persist into the future, we expect Connected Fitness will take category share and drive growth of the overall fitness category.

付費健身行業擁有跨週期增長的長期記錄，我們仍然相信互聯健身是最具吸引力的細分市場。即使在非常困難的 COVID 比賽中，Connected Fitness 類別在 21 日曆年也有所增長。並且在最近幾個月中，繼續保持比 COVID 之前顯著更高的市場份額。由於在家工作和混合動力仍然是可能持續到未來的流行主題，我們預計互聯健身將佔據類別份額並推動整體健身類別的增長。

Our own attitudinal research as well as others published recently has shown that openness to working out at home, and Connected Fitness in particular, is now at levels much higher than they were pre-COVID. And while traffic levels are reverting to pre-COVID norms, we have seen this improved product market fit for Peloton result in higher post-COVID conversion rates.

我們自己的態度研究以及最近發表的其他研究表明，在家鍛煉的開放性，尤其是互聯健身，現在的水平遠高於 COVID 之前的水平。雖然流量水平正在恢復到 COVID 之前的規範，但我們已經看到這種適合 Peloton 的改進產品市場導致更高的 COVID 後轉換率。

Importantly, we expect Peloton to remain the dominant category leader. Our engagement, retention and NPS scores demonstrate the continued effectiveness value and convenience of our platform. And although our recent performance has fallen short of expectations, we nonetheless grew our share within the Connected Fitness category over the past 12 months.

重要的是，我們預計 Peloton 將繼續成為主導類別的領導者。我們的參與度、留存率和 NPS 分數證明了我們平台的持續有效性價值和便利性。儘管我們最近的表現沒有達到預期，但在過去 12 個月中，我們在互聯健身類別中的份額有所增長。

Moving on to hardware margins. As I discussed earlier, we now expect an even more pronounced Connected Fitness gross margin contraction in fiscal '22, which primarily reflects fixed cost deleverage from lower volume. Currently, we are not generating nearly enough hardware profitability to achieve our goal of covering customer acquisition costs, which means it is critical for us to rebuild this margin structure.

轉向硬件利潤。正如我之前所討論的，我們現在預計 22 財年 Connected Fitness 的毛利率將出現更明顯的收縮，這主要反映了來自較低銷量的固定成本去槓桿化。目前，我們沒有產生足夠的硬件盈利能力來實現我們覆蓋客戶獲取成本的目標，這意味著重建這種利潤率結構對我們來說至關重要。

On January 31, we took the first step by adding delivery and installation charges to Bike and Tread in North America and similar surcharges in our updated all-inclusive pricing in our international markets. This pricing change will positively impact Q4 Connected Fitness margin.

1 月 31 日，我們邁出了第一步，在我們的國際市場更新的全包定價中增加了北美 Bike and Tread 的運費和安裝費以及類似的附加費。這種定價變化將對第四季度 Connected Fitness 的利潤率產生積極影響。

The restructuring program we announced today will provide further tailwind with our COGS savings primarily driven by efficiencies in logistics, procurement and manufacturing. We expect logistics savings from our warehouse restructuring to meaningfully reduce our delivery cost beginning in Q4. Our procurement and manufacturing savings will also be considerable but will primarily benefit fiscal '23 and '24. In total, these actions should have a material positive impact on our Connected Fitness gross margin and enable us to trend closer to net CAC neutrality over the next several quarters.

我們今天宣布的重組計劃將為我們節省主要由物流、採購和製造效率驅動的 COGS 提供進一步的順風。我們預計，從第四季度開始，我們的倉庫重組節省的物流成本將顯著降低我們的交付成本。我們的採購和製造節省也將是可觀的，但主要受益於 '23 和 '24 財政年度。總的來說，這些行動應該會對我們的 Connected Fitness 毛利率產生重大的積極影響，並使我們能夠在未來幾個季度接近 CAC 淨中性。

Going forward, we do not intend to rely on the capital markets to support our growth. Our use of cash in fiscal '22 has been abnormally high, and we are confident we will see meaningful improvement in fiscal '23 and consistent positive free cash flow in the near future.

展望未來，我們不打算依賴資本市場來支持我們的增長。我們在 '22 財年的現金使用量異常高，我們有信心在不久的將來看到 '23 財年的顯著改善和持續的正自由現金流。

There are a few factors underpinning our confidence. First, our EBITDA improvement opportunity. We expect our restructuring efforts to generate at least $800 million in run rate savings by fiscal '24. Supply chain savings will take more time to be fully realized, but we expect the majority of OpEx savings to benefit fiscal '23. Our recent pricing actions should also be a material tailwind to EBITDA.

有幾個因素支撐著我們的信心。首先，我們的 EBITDA 改善機會。我們預計，到 24 財年，我們的重組工作將至少節省 8 億美元的運行率。供應鏈節省將需要更多時間才能完全實現，但我們預計大部分運營支出節省將受益於 '23 財年。我們最近的定價行動也應該對 EBITDA 產生重大影響。

Second, the improvement in operating cash flows going forward. Our much higher-than-normal inventory balances this year are obviously creating significant cash headwinds in fiscal '22. Given our current inventory is nonperishable and nonseasonal, we expect to sell it at full price. As we work down our inventory balance, we should see a considerable cash flow tailwind in fiscal '23. We are implementing stronger processes and greater discipline in our inventory management and intend to bring our days on hand down over time with the goal of a more neutral annual cash impact going forward.

二是未來經營現金流的改善。我們今年遠高於正常水平的庫存餘額顯然在 22 財年造成了巨大的現金逆風。鑑於我們目前的庫存不易腐爛且非季節性，我們希望以全價出售。隨著我們減少庫存餘額，我們應該會在 23 財年看到相當大的現金流順風。我們正在我們的庫存管理中實施更強大的流程和更嚴格的紀律，並打算隨著時間的推移減少我們手頭的日子，目標是在未來實現更中性的年度現金影響。

Third, we have opportunities to lower capital expenditures. Within CapEx, our fiscal '22 outlook includes $90 million to $100 million in spend on POP as well as material spending on systems implementations, product development and other nonrecurring project-based investments.

第三，我們有機會降低資本支出。在資本支出中，我們的 22 財年展望包括 9000 萬至 1 億美元的 POP 支出以及系統實施、產品開發和其他基於項目的非經常性投資的材料支出。

Finally, the $130 million in restructuring-related P&L cash costs will be heavily concentrated in fiscal '22. Ultimately, we are comfortable with our balance sheet position, and we expect to end fiscal '22 with approximately $1.2 billion in cash and $500 million of additional revolver capacity and have a line of sight to improve cash flows next year.

最後，與重組相關的 1.3 億美元損益現金成本將主要集中在 22 財年。最終，我們對我們的資產負債表狀況感到滿意，我們預計將在 22 財年結束時擁有約 12 億美元的現金和 5 億美元的額外左輪手槍產能，並有望改善明年的現金流。

I will now turn it back to John with some closing thoughts before we get to questions.

在我們提出問題之前，我現在將把它轉回給約翰，並附上一些結束的想法。

Thank you, Jill. We've announced a considerable number of changes today, changes in leadership and on our Board as well as the difficult but necessary steps we're taking to cut costs and better balance growth and profitability. These actions will make Peloton a stronger and more nimble organization than it is today, an organization that is better equipped to capitalize on our leadership position in Connected Fitness for the benefit of all stakeholders.

謝謝你，吉爾。我們今天宣布了相當多的變化，領導層和董事會的變化，以及我們為削減成本和更好地平衡增長和盈利能力而採取的困難但必要的步驟。這些行動將使 Peloton 成為一個比現在更強大、更靈活的組織，一個更有能力利用我們在 Connected Fitness 中的領導地位為所有利益相關者造福的組織。

I'm proud of the company that we have built over the last 10 years. Under Barry McCarthy's leadership, the future has never been brighter for Peloton. As I transition out of the CEO role and into that of Executive Chair, I could not be more excited to partner closely with Barry. I look forward to speaking with you next quarter and updating you on our progress.

我為我們在過去 10 年中建立的公司感到自豪。在 Barry McCarthy 的領導下，Peloton 的未來從未如此光明。當我從 CEO 角色過渡到執行主席的角色時，我非常高興能與 Barry 密切合作。我期待在下個季度與您交談，並向您介紹我們的進展。

Operator, please open the lines for questions.

接線員，請打開線路提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question coming from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

John, I was hoping you could just update us a little bit in terms of the current product mix, just maybe talk a little bit more about what you're seeing across the One Bike and Bike+ and then also kind of early thoughts still on the Tread here. And how does the restructuring impact your product development plans going forward?

約翰，我希望你能就當前的產品組合向我們更新一點，也許多談談你在 One Bike 和 Bike+ 上看到的東西，然後還有一些早期的想法仍然在踩到這裡。重組對你們未來的產品開發計劃有何影響？

And then, Jill, you talked a lot about both the COGS and the OpEx savings. Can you help just frame those kind of collectively through fiscal '22, '23 and '24?

然後，Jill，您談到了很多關於 COGS 和 OpEx 節省的問題。您能否通過 22 財年、23 財年和 24 財年共同構建這些框架？

That was a lot baked in there, so you'll have to bear with us as we get through. I think there were embedded about 3 or 4 questions. I think your first question was really around mix. And I guess what I would say first off is that we've obviously learned a lot about mix over the course of the last several months, obviously, with the pricing changes that we made in August and then, obviously, with the promotional activity that we ran through the holiday. And so as you can imagine, our Bike+ does have the higher gross profit margin in the portfolio. And what we did see through promotional impact is that narrowing that gap between our original Bike and our Bike+ does positively skew mix to Bike+. And so obviously, we've had a lot of learnings there. And one of the reasons that helped underpin our confidence as we look to slightly increase and add the delivery surcharge back to Bike.

那裡有很多東西，所以當我們度過難關時，你必須忍受我們。我認為嵌入了大約 3 或 4 個問題。我認為您的第一個問題實際上是關於混合的。我想我首先要說的是，在過去的幾個月裡，我們顯然學到了很多關於混合的知識，很明顯，隨著我們在 8 月所做的定價變化，然後，很明顯，隨著促銷活動我們度過了假期。正如您可以想像的那樣，我們的 Bike+ 在產品組合中確實具有更高的毛利率。我們通過促銷影響確實看到的是，縮小我們最初的 Bike 和 Bike+ 之間的差距確實會積極地向 Bike+ 傾斜組合。很明顯，我們在那裡學到了很多東西。這也是我們希望略微增加並將送貨附加費加回 Bike 的原因之一，這有助於鞏固我們的信心。

If you go -- I think you also asked a question around Tread so far. And so what I would say is we're incredibly pleased with the performance of Tread so far. We continue to believe that the Tread category is bigger than the Bike category. And our job is to educate the consumer on the product market fit, build product awareness that leads to purchase intent. So we know that our Tread has the highest NPS of any of our products. And so we've been excited to continue to build on that momentum. We also know that our awareness continues to build, and more than half of our sales are going to new members since launch. And lastly, I hope you've noticed we've received a lot of great accolades in the press and positive reviews on the product. So we're incredibly pleased with the results so far on Tread.

如果你去——我想你到目前為止還問了一個關於 Tread 的問題。所以我想說的是，到目前為止，我們對 Tread 的表現非常滿意。我們仍然認為，胎麵類別大於自行車類別。我們的工作是讓消費者了解產品的市場契合度，建立導致購買意圖的產品意識。所以我們知道我們的胎面在我們所有的產品中具有最高的 NPS。因此，我們很高興能繼續在這一勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。我們還知道，我們的知名度不斷提高，自推出以來，我們一半以上的銷售額都流向了新會員。最後，我希望您已經註意到我們在媒體上獲得了很多讚譽以及對產品的正面評價。因此，到目前為止，我們對 Tread 的結果感到非常滿意。

And Doug, with respect to restructuring impact on development and our product pipeline, one of the philosophies we entered the restructuring mindset or program with was don't eat the seed corn and don't touch what's sacrosanct and beautiful and important about our business. And product development, software content, the things that impact the member experience were largely untouched. So I think you're still going to be excited to see what comes out of Peloton in the coming quarters and years.

Doug，關於重組對發展和我們的產品線的影響，我們進入重組思維或計劃的理念之一是不要吃玉米種子，不要觸及對我們的業務神聖、美麗和重要的東西。產品開發、軟件內容以及影響會員體驗的東西基本上沒有受到影響。所以我認為你仍然會很高興看到 Peloton 在未來幾個季度和幾年裡會發生什麼。

And Doug, just doubling back on the restructuring, I believe you asked about the COGS improvements that we expect to generate over the next couple of years. As we outlined, we see a line of sight of at least $300 million in run rate savings. The majority of those savings will come from efficiencies in procurement and manufacturing and logistics. And obviously, some of the actions that we took on the logistics front today are immediately realized in Q4. And that, plus our pricing action from our delivery surcharge implementation at the end of January will help us end the quarter, Q4, with a mid-teens Connected Fitness margin.

還有道格，我相信你剛剛問及我們預計在未來幾年內將產生的 COGS 改進。正如我們所概述的，我們看到至少可以節省 3 億美元的運行率。這些節省的大部分將來自採購、製造和物流方面的效率。顯然，我們今天在物流方面採取的一些行動在第四季度立即實現。而且，再加上我們在 1 月底實施交付附加費的定價行動，將幫助我們在第四季度結束時以十幾歲的 Connected Fitness 利潤率。

I do want to make a note that just in terms of our own mix of deliveries versus third party, essentially, we're shifting from 60% in-house to around 40% in-house. So while this is a pretty dramatic move for us, we are keeping owned warehouses in our larger markets where we can drive efficiency throughout the year. So those are really our higher volume markets.

我確實想指出，就我們自己與第三方的交付組合而言，基本上，我們正在從 60% 的內部轉移到 40% 左右的內部。因此，雖然這對我們來說是一個非常戲劇性的舉措，但我們在更大的市場中保留了自有倉庫，我們可以全年提高效率。所以這些確實是我們更高容量的市場。

We certainly have a lot more work to do to optimize around delivery growth and inventory placement and staffing levels. But all of this, we think, will meaningfully improve. But again, I think we're going to start off with a much healthier base by the end of Q4 in the mid-teens.

我們當然還有很多工作要做，以優化交付增長、庫存配置和人員配備水平。但我們認為，所有這一切都會得到有意義的改善。但同樣，我認為我們將在第四季度末十幾歲時以更健康的基礎開始。

The one -- and then the last point I would make, I know there's a lot here, is that what we will not change is our member focus and trying to create a great member experience. We realize through the outsourcing of our delivery that, that may be called into question. But our focus is as intent as it was, and we'll be working with our third-party providers to ensure that our delivery experience is consistent across the board. So hopefully, that helps answer your question.

我要說的最後一點，我知道這裡有很多，我們不會改變的是我們對會員的關注，並努力創造出色的會員體驗。我們通過我們的交付外包意識到，這可能會受到質疑。但我們的重點始終如一，我們將與我們的第三方供應商合作，以確保我們的交付體驗全面一致。因此，希望這有助於回答您的問題。

And our next question coming from the line of Edward Yruma with KeyBanc.

我們的下一個問題來自 Edward Yruma 和 KeyBanc。

I just want to kind of follow up on the last question but ask a broader question on demand. As you think about all the different things you've experimented with, right, tactical price reductions, new products, as we think about the longer-term growth algorithm, what do you think restores the business back to a growth trajectory? Is it some of these new products? Is it just kind of lapping some of these comps? And I know that you did make a comment about affordability and trying to reduce that. I wanted to know how that squared with the implementation delivery fees.

我只是想跟進最後一個問題，但根據需要提出更廣泛的問題。當您考慮您嘗試過的所有不同事物時，對，戰術性降價，新產品，當我們考慮長期增長算法時，您認為什麼可以使業務恢復到增長軌跡？是這些新產品中的一些嗎？它只是對這些組合中的一些進行研磨嗎？我知道你確實對可負擔性發表了評論，並試圖減少這種負擔。我想知道這與實施交付費用有何關係。

Thanks, Ed. I'm going to take this, and I think John might chime in. There's a lot here. Certainly, our second half demand is a softer demand picture. And so it obviously exemplifies the fact that it has been difficult for us to forecast and predict demand coming out of COVID. But I do want to highlight that there are 3 other factors that we believe are relatively short term in nature that are driving our revised outlook.

謝謝，埃德。我要接受這個，我想約翰可能會插話。這裡有很多。當然，我們下半年的需求是一個疲軟的需求圖景。因此，它顯然說明了一個事實，即我們很難預測和預測來自 COVID 的需求。但我確實想強調，我們認為還有 3 個其他因素在本質上是相對短期的，它們正在推動我們修訂的前景。

No doubt, we are going to see an elasticity response from the price increases on our original Bike and Tread. And those, as you know, are in the form of the delivery and installation surcharge. We also are intending to purposefully reduce our marketing spend in the back half of the year so that we better understand baseline of demand post-COVID.

毫無疑問，我們將看到原始自行車和胎面價格上漲的彈性反應。如您所知，這些是交付和安裝附加費的形式。我們還打算在下半年有目的地減少營銷支出，以便我們更好地了解 COVID 後的需求基線。

And I think it's just important as we move forward, we're making a lot of OpEx cuts. But to be clear, from a marketing perspective, that is an engine that we are not shutting off. Marketing will be critical to our success going forward. And so what you'll see is that what we want to do is, one, get to better marketing and media efficiency and also reduce a lot of the fixed costs within sales and marketing so that we can allocate more to that variable marketing spend. So that is something that we are not going to sacrifice on. We want to grow. We want to change more lives.

而且我認為這很重要，因為我們向前邁進了，我們正在削減很多運營支出。但要明確的是，從營銷的角度來看，這是一個我們不會關閉的引擎。營銷對於我們未來的成功至關重要。所以你會看到，我們想要做的是，第一，提高營銷和媒體效率，同時減少銷售和營銷中的大量固定成本，以便我們可以將更多的資金分配給可變的營銷支出。所以這是我們不會犧牲的東西。我們想要成長。我們想改變更多的生活。

And then third, I think we would be, I think, naive if we didn't think that there could be some operational disruptions as we work through this restructuring. And so those are sort of the 3 short-term headwinds that we're seeing.

第三，我認為，如果我們不認為在我們進行重組時可能會出現一些運營中斷，我們會很天真。因此，這些是我們所看到的 3 個短期不利因素。

But stepping back, we believe that the opportunity is unchanged. We believe the fitness and wellness industry will continue to grow. It's grown for decades through many, many cycles. The Connected Fitness industry will take share. The Connected Fitness industry will also grow fitness participation. And we know that consumers coming out of COVID with work-from-home and hybrid models are more predisposed to want to work out at home today than they ever were pre-COVID.

但退一步說，我們相信機會沒有改變。我們相信健身和保健行業將繼續增長。它通過許多、許多周期發展了幾十年。互聯健身行業將佔有一席之地。互聯健身行業也將增加健身參與度。而且我們知道，與 COVID 之前相比，如今使用在家工作和混合模式擺脫 COVID 的消費者更傾向於在家鍛煉。

And I just want to also take one other step back as it relates to our subscriber base. Keep in mind, we are projecting 3 million subs by the end of this year. When we entered COVID, which feels like a decade ago now for us at Peloton, 2 years ago, we had just over 700,000 subscribers. So while our growth in sales in our Connected Fitness has been nonlinear, we are emerging from all of this with a very large scale, growing member base with low churn. We're changing lives. We have a great product, high NPS, low churn and are the category leader. And that's what really makes us excited about the future, and it's the same playbook we've had before. It's growing our core Bike business, growing new products, growing our channels like corporate wellness and growing international.

而且我還想退後一步，因為它與我們的用戶群有關。請記住，我們預計到今年年底將有 300 萬訂閱者。兩年前，當我們進入 COVID 時，感覺就像十年前的 Peloton 一樣，我們的訂閱者剛剛超過 700,000。因此，雖然我們在 Connected Fitness 的銷售額增長是非線性的，但我們正以規模龐大、不斷增長的會員群和低流失率從這一切中脫穎而出。我們正在改變生活。我們擁有出色的產品、高 NPS、低流失率，並且是該類別的領導者。這才是真正讓我們對未來感到興奮的地方，這與我們以前的劇本相同。它正在發展我們的核心自行車業務，發展新產品，發展我們的渠道，如企業健康和發展國際化。

And our next question coming from the line of John Blackledge with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 與 Cowen 的對話。

Two questions. First, are you seeing any difference in the demand for Tread on a market-by-market basis? And then secondly, Jill, you talked about changing the CapEx after this year. Could you provide perhaps a range on CapEx as a percent of sales after fiscal '22?

兩個問題。首先，您是否看到各個市場對 Tread 的需求有什麼不同？其次，吉爾，你談到了今年之後改變資本支出。您能否提供 22 財年之後資本支出佔銷售額的百分比範圍？

Thanks very much. The first question is on Tread by market. I mean we're still in the very nascent stages of building product awareness in all of our markets. There's really no discernible difference, although as you can imagine, right, our brand awareness is lower than it is in the U.S. in our international markets. So you'd expect to see a potentially slower ramp there. But again, when you look at Q3 and you think about the fact that we only launched this product just over 5 months ago, it's a significant percentage of our sales. And I'll just go back to what I said before with Doug that we absolutely are very pleased with the launch. And the most important metric for us is NPS, and it's got the highest NPS of any product.

非常感謝。第一個問題是按市場分類的。我的意思是，我們仍處於在所有市場建立產品意識的初期階段。確實沒有明顯的區別，儘管您可以想像，對，我們的品牌知名度在我們的國際市場上低於美國。因此，您會期望那裡看到一個可能較慢的斜坡。但是，當您再次查看第三季度時，您會想到我們僅在 5 個多月前才推出該產品的事實，這在我們的銷售額中佔很大比例。我將回到我之前和 Doug 說過的話，我們對這次發布非常滿意。對我們來說最重要的指標是 NPS，它是所有產品中 NPS 最高的。

From a CapEx perspective, with a lot of the changes today around the restructuring and management changes, I'm hesitant to provide you an exact dollar figure on CapEx. I would just reiterate the fact that we want to move to a CapEx-light model. We believe we can do that. And so I think what you can expect is a considerably lower CapEx spend than what we're spending in fiscal '22. Plus, also expect that we'll have the tailwind of any sale proceeds from the POP facility.

從資本支出的角度來看，今天圍繞重組和管理變更發生了很多變化，我不願為您提供資本支出的確切美元數字。我只想重申我們希望轉向資本支出輕模型的事實。我們相信我們可以做到。所以我認為你可以期待的是，資本支出比我們在 22 財年的支出要低得多。另外，還希望我們能夠從 POP 設施的任何銷售收益中獲得順風。

Real quick. John, I also want to weigh in on kind of dovetailing with Ed's question on growth and your question on Tread is that to Jill's point, in the early days of our Tread, we have an awareness opportunity, and we had this in the earliest days of the Bike of why do I need this stationary bike that in the earliest days felt expensive? And the answer is because it's a portal to a fantastic boutique fitness experience at home. We have a similar challenge or opportunity with the Tread now of, one, just the awareness that Peloton has a Tread. And two, why is our Tread dramatically different than the Treads you've known about for decades? Both of those are marketing opportunities that we're really excited to lean into.

真快。約翰，我還想與 Ed 關於增長的問題相吻合，你對 Tread 的問題是 Jill 的觀點，在我們 Tread 的早期，我們有一個意識機會，我們在早期就有這個機會為什麼我需要這款在早期感覺很貴的固定自行車？答案是因為它是在家中享受美妙精品健身體驗的門戶。我們現在對 Tread 也有類似的挑戰或機遇，其中之一就是意識到 Peloton 擁有 Tread。第二，為什麼我們的 Tread 與您幾十年來所知道的 Tread 截然不同？這兩個都是我們非常興奮的營銷機會。

And you should know that our marketing efficiency goes up with the awareness of the Tread product and why it's so special, why it brings these boutique -- boot camp, circuit workouts into your home where it's not just get on the treadmill for 45 minutes because a lot of people don't look forward to that. I think it's the variety of content -- the variety of class content, the on and off tread workouts that are so popular in the off-line world, in the boutique world, that our treadmill was the first Tread and the best Tread to bring those to your house and to your home in an efficient and affordable manner.

而且您應該知道，我們的營銷效率會隨著對 Tread 產品的認識而提高，為什麼它如此特別，為什麼它將這些精品 - 新兵訓練營，巡迴訓練帶入您的家中，而不僅僅是在跑步機上 45 分鐘，因為很多人對此並不期待。我認為這是內容的多樣性——課程內容的多樣性，在離線世界和精品店世界中如此流行的跑步機和跑步機，我們的跑步機是第一款 Tread 和最好的 Tread以高效且負擔得起的方式將它們送到您的房子和您的家中。

So as we grow awareness in the coming quarters and coming years, our marketing becomes more efficient, and that's going to lead to more profitable marketing and obviously, growth, as Jill pointed out, that we think that category is going to be even bigger than Bike. And it has been -- historically, treadmill market has been 2 to 3x bigger than the stationary bike market. So between those 2 things, we're super excited about the Tread product line.

因此，隨著我們在未來幾個季度和未來幾年的意識提高，我們的營銷變得更有效率，這將導致更有利可圖的營銷，顯然，正如吉爾指出的那樣，增長，我們認為該類別將比自行車。而且，從歷史上看，跑步機市場比固定自行車市場大 2 到 3 倍。因此，在這兩件事之間，我們對 Tread 產品線感到非常興奮。

And our next question coming from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe just a 2-parter on the CEO change for you, John. Can you give us a little bit of a better sense of the process behind bringing Barry in, what you saw in Barry's sort of past on the media side and the subscription side that fits well with the role and maybe some of the elements of hardware and logistics and manufacturing that Barry has a little bit less experience with historically. That would be part one. And two, when would we expect to hear from Barry and the broader investment community? When is he starting in the role? Can you give us a little bit of an update there?

約翰，也許只是為你更換 CEO 的 2 人。你能否讓我們更好地了解一下引入 Barry 背後的過程，你在 Barry 過去在媒體方面和訂閱方面所看到的與這個角色非常契合的情況，也許還有一些硬件元素和巴里在歷史上的經驗較少的物流和製造。那將是第一部分。第二，我們什麼時候能聽到巴里和更廣泛的投資界的消息？他什麼時候開始演這個角色？你能給我們一些更新嗎？

Great. Yes. I'll take the first one. He starts, in earnest, tomorrow morning. It's the first day of the job. And so he's drinking from a firehose right now, as you can imagine.

偉大的。是的。我會拿第一個。他明天早上認真地開始。這是工作的第一天。所以他現在正在用消防水管喝水，你可以想像。

On your first question, the Board and I ran a thoughtful collaborative succession process over several months and determined that Barry is definitively the right CEO for Peloton for the next several chapters. We're super excited that he -- that we found him. We fell in love. We saw what he has to offer. And he also was similarly excited. So it was -- it moved fast once we established and got in contact with him.

關於您的第一個問題，董事會和我在幾個月內進行了深思熟慮的協作繼任流程，並確定巴里絕對是 Peloton 在接下來的幾個章節中的合適 CEO。我們非常興奮他——我們找到了他。我們墜入愛河。我們看到了他必須提供的東西。而他也同樣興奮。所以它是 - 一旦我們建立並與他取得聯繫，它就會迅速發展。

The reason why he's so good, as you probably know, Erik, following successes over the last several decades, is he is a visionary, media, software, subscription business. He might be #1 in the world with understanding subscription businesses with his building -- helping rebuild Netflix and helping Daniel build Spotify. And so it's -- as I said to The Journal last night, he's kind of an embarrassment of riches as it relates to the Peloton story, and this is a third opportunity for him to help build one of the best global consumer products, media company brand.

正如您可能知道的，Erik 在過去幾十年取得成功之後，他之所以如此出色，是因為他是一個有遠見的、媒體、軟件、訂閱業務。他可能在世界上排名第一，因為他對訂閱業務的理解與他的建築有關——幫助重建 Netflix 並幫助 Daniel 建立 Spotify。因此，正如我昨晚對《華爾街日報》所說，他在與 Peloton 的故事有關的財富方面有點尷尬，這是他幫助建立全球最好的消費品媒體公司之一的第三次機會品牌。

I said in my preremarks that we were delighted that he and his wife are big Peloton members and users. And so they get the magic. They get what's special. So it's been a really exciting thing for me as one of the founders to get to know Barry, see his passion, already start to learn from him and his understanding to these businesses. And so we're excited.

我在前言中說，我們很高興他和他的妻子是 Peloton 的大成員和用戶。所以他們得到了魔法。他們得到了特別的東西。因此，作為創始人之一，了解 Barry，看到他的熱情，已經開始向他學習以及他對這些業務的理解，這對我來說是一件非常令人興奮的事情。所以我們很興奮。

With respect to hardware, he is as smart as anyone I've ever met. So we're not worried about his any perceived lightness on hardware. And again, I'm going over the Executive Chair role. We have a fantastic team. He's going to add value starting tomorrow morning, and we couldn't be more excited.

在硬件方面，他和我見過的任何人一樣聰明。所以我們並不擔心他在硬件上的任何感知輕盈。再一次，我將討論執行主席的角色。我們有一支出色的團隊。他將從明天早上開始增加價值，我們非常興奮。

To your second part of the question, I think there's a lot of internal focus for Barry for the next couple -- several weeks or months. But obviously, at the appropriate time, I'm sure, well prior to our next earnings call, we'll get Barry introduced around. But I think, Erik, you'll be seeing a lot of familiar faces.

對於問題的第二部分，我認為巴里接下來的幾個星期或幾個月有很多內部關注點。但顯然，在適當的時候，我敢肯定，在我們下一次財報電話會議之前，我們會介紹巴里。但我想，Erik，你會看到很多熟悉的面孔。

Erik, to your question as well with respect to supply chain and/or hardware, I do want to point out that we've added Angel Mendez to our Board who is a global supply chain leader and super experienced executive, and we plan to benefit from his strategic thoughts at the Board level. Barry is also joining the Board. So there's going to be a lot of collaboration. And we are stronger on the supply chain side today than we were yesterday, which is exciting.

Erik，對於您關於供應鍊和/或硬件的問題，我確實想指出，我們已將 Angel Mendez 添加到我們的董事會，他是全球供應鏈領導者和經驗豐富的高管，我們計劃從中受益來自他在董事會層面的戰略思想。巴里也加入了董事會。所以會有很多合作。今天我們在供應鏈方面比昨天更強大，這令人興奮。

And our next question coming from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jason Helfstein 和 Oppenheimer。

I guess two. I mean it seems a large part of what you're struggling with is we took a product that was potentially a long consideration product similar to a car that people might think about over 3, 6 months, and we shrunk it to literally an impulsive purchaser and COVID. And now we're going back to long consideration. And so maybe help us understand as you do your research like -- just how do we think about it, right? Because investors are trying to understand if they've miscalculated the TAM opportunity or really just going back to, again, a long consideration purchase.

我猜是兩個。我的意思是，您正在苦苦掙扎的很大一部分似乎是我們採用了一種可能是長期考慮產品的產品，類似於人們可能會考慮超過 3、6 個月的汽車，而我們將其縮小為真正的衝動購買者和新冠病毒。現在我們要回到長期考慮。因此，當您進行研究時，也許可以幫助我們理解——我們如何看待它，對吧？因為投資者試圖了解他們是否錯誤地估計了 TAM 機會，或者真的只是再次回到長期考慮購買。

And then just second, John, can you address your super voting stock? Now that you're joining the Board, does it still make sense for you to keep that super voting stock? And kind of how do you think about that in the best interest of shareholders?

然後第二個，約翰，你能談談你的超級投票權嗎？既然你加入了董事會，那麼保留超級投票權對你來說還有意義嗎？您如何看待這符合股東的最大利益？

So I'll take the first. I think the real question you're asking is, has our market opportunity shrunk. We don't think the opportunity or the strategy to attack that opportunity has changed. Our cost actions are all independent of the growth opportunity that exists for Connected Fitness and for Peloton.

所以我會拿第一個。我認為你要問的真正問題是，我們的市場機會縮水了。我們認為機會或攻擊機會的策略沒有改變。我們的成本行動都獨立於 Connected Fitness 和 Peloton 存在的增長機會。

I think we're simply acknowledging 2 points regarding fiscal '22. We accelerated our growth into the TAM more than we thought, and assessing demand coming out of COVID has been a significant challenge. And you're right, our #1 purchase barrier has always been price. And we -- there is a consideration period involved. But -- and certainly, during COVID, I'm sure that was somewhat truncated.

我認為我們只是承認關於 22 財年的 2 點。我們在 TAM 中的增長速度超出了我們的想像，評估來自 COVID 的需求一直是一項重大挑戰。你是對的，我們的第一購買障礙一直是價格。我們 - 涉及一個考慮期。但是——當然，在 COVID 期間，我確信這在某種程度上被截斷了。

We did no marketing. We obviously saw very large increases in conversion. But even coming out of COVID, while traffic is down, right, we are still seeing sustained increases in conversion. And as you also think about COVID, you think about our price change in August, you think about promotional activity over the past several months, which is again very typical for us in that time of year, we have to work over the next 6 months to rebuild that lead database and that -- and we've had many events over the past couple of years, to your point, that have kind of somewhat drained the lead database.

我們沒有做營銷。我們顯然看到了轉化率的大幅增長。但是，即使從 COVID 中出來，雖然流量下降，對，我們仍然看到轉化率持續增長。當您還考慮 COVID 時，您會想到我們 8 月份的價格變化，您會想到過去幾個月的促銷活動，這對我們來說在一年中的那個時候再次非常典型，我們必須在接下來的 6 個月內工作重建該潛在客戶數據庫，而且在過去幾年中我們發生了許多事件，就您而言，這在某種程度上耗盡了潛在客戶數據庫。

So we have work to do, but I think we're going to study what our post-COVID demand is with going dark on marketing to better understand the baseline. And we're going to get back to efficient marketing next year. But again, we don't think the opportunities change. We believe our value proposition is commensurate with the pricing of our products. And we'll go back, I think, to the basics over the next several quarters, again, rebuilding the lead database and using marketing to drive awareness and purchase intent and convert more people. So I think we feel good about that.

所以我們有工作要做，但我認為我們將研究我們在 COVID 後的需求是什麼，以及對營銷的黑暗，以更好地了解基線。我們將在明年恢復高效營銷。但同樣，我們認為機會不會改變。我們相信我們的價值主張與我們產品的定價相稱。我認為，我們將在接下來的幾個季度再次回到基礎，重建潛在客戶數據庫並使用營銷來提高知名度和購買意圖並轉化更多人。所以我認為我們對此感覺良好。

And Jason, with respect to super voting stock, we have no changes planned at this time. But I will say, we have a very mature, seasoned, experienced Board of Directors and -- that operates in the best interest of all shareholders. And I think the announcement this morning that we're bringing in an incredible -- incredibly experienced and talented and proven CEO to strengthen our leadership team is just one of the many things that I would do to show my commitment that this is not about John Foley and/or my super voting shares or TCVs or anyone else's. This is about what's best for all shareholders, Peloton, of which I am one of them.

Jason，關於超級投票權的股票，我們目前沒有計劃更改。但我會說，我們有一個非常成熟、經驗豐富、經驗豐富的董事會，並且 - 其運作符合所有股東的最佳利益。我認為今天早上宣布我們將引進一位令人難以置信的——非常有經驗、才華橫溢和久經考驗的首席執行官來加強我們的領導團隊，這只是我會做的許多事情之一，以表明我的承諾，這與約翰無關Foley 和/或我的超級投票股份或 TCV 或其他任何人的。這對所有股東來說都是最好的，Peloton，我就是其中之一。

Our next question coming from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自與 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Just a question on your growth initiatives, following up on one of the prior questions. Will there be any initiatives in the near term that you may have to hold or sort of pull back on whether it is international market expansion or some of the new products that were in the pipeline around corporate wellness, anything around that, that you can comment on?

只是一個關於您的增長計劃的問題，跟進之前的問題之一。短期內是否有任何舉措您可能不得不保留或有所回落，無論是國際市場擴張還是圍繞企業健康正在醞釀中的一些新產品，您可以發表評論在？

Thank you. So the question centers around how we -- as we look at our restructuring, what does it mean and what does it not mean. And I think, again, it's about preserving member experience. It's about creating great products. It's about changing more lives. This is not a call for a slowing of growth or product development. This is all about rightsizing our cost structure, variabilizing our cost structure so that we can operate in any environment and not have demand dictate the bottom line. So we went through a very meticulous process with our entire senior leadership team to ensure that as we were making these cuts across our organization, we're doing so without preserving the acorns of growth that we have ahead of us. So it still is prioritizing product innovation, software innovation, new hardware products, corporate wellness and channels. So no impact to all of the various growth initiatives.

謝謝你。所以問題集中在我們如何 - 當我們看待我們的重組時，它意味著什麼，它不意味著什麼。我認為，再次，這是關於保留會員體驗。這是關於創造偉大的產品。這是關於改變更多的生活。這並不是要求放緩增長或產品開發。這一切都是為了調整我們的成本結構，改變我們的成本結構，以便我們可以在任何環境中運營，而不會讓需求決定底線。因此，我們與整個高級領導團隊一起經歷了一個非常細緻的過程，以確保當我們在整個組織中進行這些削減時，我們這樣做時不會保留擺在我們面前的增長橡子。所以它仍然優先考慮產品創新、軟件創新、新硬件產品、企業健康和渠道。因此，對所有各種增長計劃都沒有影響。

Now that doesn't mean to say that we're not going to take a harder look as we go into international markets or as we look at our showroom footprint to make sure that we're operating in the most efficient way, but all of this was done with the fact that we want to remain a growth company. That's our priority, along with profitability, and we're not cutting in the places that would hurt that growth.

現在這並不意味著我們在進入國際市場或查看我們的陳列室足跡以確保我們以最有效的方式運營時不會更加努力，但所有這是因為我們希望繼續成為一家成長型公司。這是我們的首要任務，以及盈利能力，我們不會削減會損害這種增長的地方。

Our next question coming from the line of Bernie McTernan with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Needham & Company 的 Bernie McTernan。

Jill, you mentioned a net investment and customer acquisition costs over the next few quarters. As we think about '24 and beyond, what's the right way to think about net customer acquisition costs, whether it's going to be neutral, positive or negative? And then just -- I wasn't sure if you would be willing to share, given these restructuring -- implementation of this restructuring, any reasonable target range to think about EBITDA margins going forward?

吉爾，你提到了未來幾個季度的淨投資和客戶獲取成本。當我們考慮 24 年及以後，如何看待淨客戶獲取成本的正確方法是中性的、積極的還是消極的？然後只是 - 我不確定你是否願意分享，鑑於這些重組 - 這次重組的實施，任何合理的目標範圍來考慮未來的 EBITDA 利潤率？

Sure. So it is our priority to get back to net CAC neutral. For those of you not familiar with our terminology, essentially, what was great about our unit economic model was that our customer acquisition costs were largely, if not fully offset by the gross profit margin in our hardware. So to get back to that place, we really have to attack it from both sides. And so it's going to take time as we work through our restructuring plan. We talked about some of the immediate benefits for getting to margin through logistics restructuring and through our pricing increase that gets us to a mid-teens Connected Fitness margin, but there's more work to do there. So obviously, we know that some other longer lead items such as the manufacturing and procurement efficiencies that we hope to achieve will take much longer than the next 6 months. So we obviously have the goal to get back to net CAC 0.

當然。因此，我們的首要任務是恢復網絡 CAC 中立。對於那些不熟悉我們術語的人來說，本質上，我們的單位經濟模型的優點在於，我們的客戶獲取成本在很大程度上被我們硬件的毛利率所抵消，如果沒有完全抵消的話。所以要回到那個地方，我們真的必須從兩邊攻擊它。因此，我們需要時間來完成我們的重組計劃。我們談到了通過物流重組和通過我們的定價提高獲得利潤的一些直接好處，這使我們達到了十幾歲的 Connected Fitness 利潤率，但還有更多工作要做。顯然，我們知道其他一些較長的領先項目，例如我們希望實現的製造和採購效率，將需要比未來 6 個月更長的時間。所以我們的目標顯然是回到淨 CAC 0。

And then on the flip side of the equation, what I had said earlier, it's attacking that fixed cost infrastructure in sales and marketing and then looking at our variable cost structure and marketing and how we can be more efficient. So we're attacking it at both ends. Net CAC 0 or neutrality is certainly a goal of ours or to potentially do better than that. And we're also -- again, it's not just about unit economic model. We're also very, very hard -- looking at the efficiency of our complete OpEx picture, not just net CAC.

然後在等式的另一面，正如我之前所說，它正在攻擊銷售和營銷中的固定成本基礎設施，然後查看我們的可變成本結構和營銷以及我們如何提高效率。所以我們在兩端攻擊它。 Net CAC 0 或中立性當然是我們的目標，或者可能做得更好。我們也 - 再次，這不僅僅是關於單位經濟模型。我們也非常非常努力——著眼於我們完整的運營支出圖的效率，而不僅僅是淨 CAC。

And then in terms of the target Connected Fitness margin, I would actually just reframe it to be what I just said, which is our goal is to get back to net CAC neutrality. We're not prepared today to offer a margin target in Connected Fitness. But as I said, to get back there, we know we need to progress from where we're going to end this year. We have a line of sight to do it, and we're attacking it from sales and marketing.

然後就目標 Connected Fitness 保證金而言，我實際上只是將其重新定義為我剛才所說的，我們的目標是回到網絡 CAC 中立。我們今天不准備在 Connected Fitness 中提供利潤目標。但正如我所說，要回到那裡，我們知道我們需要從今年結束的地方取得進展。我們有一條視線可以做到這一點，我們正在從銷售和營銷方面對其進行攻擊。

Our next question coming from the line of Jonathan Komp with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jonathan Komp 和 Baird。

First question, just high-level of thinking into 2023, the comments about expecting to work through inventory at full price. I mean that implies you're still planning some level of growth, some level of Connected Fitness Product sales, some level of subscription growth. So can you just shed any more light on sort of the near-term growth trajectory just to sort of level set our expectations?

第一個問題，只是對 2023 年的高層次思考，關於期望以全價處理庫存的評論。我的意思是，這意味著您仍在計劃某種程度的增長、某種程度的互聯健身產品銷售、某種程度的訂閱增長。那麼，您能否進一步闡明近期增長軌跡，以設定我們的預期水平？

Yes. I think the first thing to note is, obviously, our inventory won't be static, right, in terms of incoming inventory over the next 18 months. So we obviously wanted to put a guidepost out there that we felt comfortable with knowing that we'll continue to work with third-party providers. We'll continue to have a minimum amount of production out of our Tonic facility. And so it's not a static question. It's not like we're starting from a certain inventory level and just working that down over time. And therefore, you can imply a demand forecast based on working down that inventory.

是的。我認為首先要注意的是，顯然，就未來 18 個月的進貨庫存而言，我們的庫存不會是靜態的。因此，我們顯然想在那裡發布一個指南，讓我們知道我們將繼續與第三方提供商合作感到很自在。我們將繼續從我們的 Tonic 工廠進行最低限度的生產。所以這不是一個靜態的問題。這不像我們是從某個庫存水平開始，然後隨著時間的推移而逐漸降低。因此，您可以根據減少庫存來暗示需求預測。

It is -- so you can't kind of read too much into that. But of course, we know the importance of getting that inventory down. And I guess what I would say is I expect it to be a good cash tailwind in fiscal '23. And we're making all the right moves in order to bring down our production to a minimum level to allow us to do this in the most effective way possible while keeping this really important infrastructure that we built in manufacturing intact and keeping our supplier relationships very much intact, which are very critical to us. So this is just something that I didn't want to commit to a much shorter time frame, knowing that we will be taking on some more inventory. But I will reiterate in Q3 and Q4, our inventory levels are expected to come down.

它是 - 所以你不能過多地閱讀它。但當然，我們知道降低庫存的重要性。而且我想我想說的是，我希望這將在 23 財年成為一個很好的現金順風。我們正在採取所有正確的措施，以將我們的生產降低到最低水平，讓我們能夠以最有效的方式做到這一點，同時保持我們在製造中建立的這個非常重要的基礎設施完好無損，並保持我們的供應商關係非常完好無損，這對我們來說非常重要。所以這只是我不想承諾更短的時間框架的事情，因為我知道我們將承擔更多的庫存。但我會在第三季度和第四季度重申，我們的庫存水平預計會下降。

And as we're approaching market open, we'll have to wrap the call here. Thank you, everyone.

隨著我們接近市場開放，我們將不得不在這裡結束通話。謝謝大家。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。