派樂騰 (PTON) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Peloton's Fourth Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Call.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們的支持，歡迎來到 Peloton 2021 財年第四季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Head of Investor Relations, Peter Stabler.

我現在想把會議交給你的主持人，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Peloton's fiscal fourth quarter conference call.

下午好，歡迎來到 Peloton 的第四財季電話會議。

Joining today's call are John Foley, our Co-Founder and CEO; President, William Lynch; and CFO, Jill Woodworth.

加入今天的電話會議的有我們的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 John Foley；總裁威廉·林奇；首席財務官 Jill Woodworth。

Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law.

我們對您問題的評論和答复僅反映了管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的陳述，這些陳述是聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。

Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

有關可能影響我們實際結果的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的股東信，兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures.

在這次電話會議中，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務措施。

A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.

今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務措施的對賬。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Peter.

謝謝你，彼得。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining us today.

大家下午好，感謝今天加入我們。

Our fourth quarter brought a remarkable year to a close.

我們的第四季度結束了非凡的一年。

We finished the year with $4.02 billion of revenue, up 120% year-on-year and up 340% versus fiscal 2019.

我們以 40.2 億美元的收入結束了這一年，同比增長 120%，比 2019 財年增長 340%。

We added over 1.2 million Connected Fitness subscribers in fiscal 2021, and Digital subscriptions ended the year up 176% versus a year ago.

我們在 2021 財年增加了超過 120 萬互聯健身用戶，數字訂閱在年底比一年前增長了 176%。

We introduced new products and software features, greatly expanded and enhanced our content library, and launched in Australia, which was no small feat given COVID pandemic complexities.

我們推出了新產品和軟件功能，極大地擴展和增強了我們的內容庫，並在澳大利亞推出，鑑於 COVID 大流行的複雜性，這是一個不小的壯舉。

We invested aggressively in supply chain and logistics, allowing us to bring product wait times back to prepandemic levels.

我們積極投資於供應鍊和物流，使我們能夠將產品等待時間恢復到大流行前的水平。

Even with the significant investments we made in manufacturing capacity and expedited shipping, this level of growth drove far more EBITDA profitability than we had anticipated or intended to achieve at this point in our growth cycle.

即使我們在製造能力和加快運輸方面進行了大量投資，這種增長水平推動的 EBITDA 盈利能力也遠遠超過我們在增長周期的這一點上預期或打算實現的水平。

We recognize, of course, that there is a great debate about the growth prospects of our industry post COVID.

當然，我們認識到，關於 COVID 後我們行業的增長前景存在著激烈的爭論。

Therefore, I think it's worthwhile to spend a minute reflecting on the year and our path forward before we review the quarter and our outlook for fiscal 2022.

因此，我認為在我們回顧本季度和我們對 2022 財年的展望之前，花一分鐘時間回顧一下這一年和我們的前進道路是值得的。

Over the past 2 years, you've heard us speak regularly about the Connected Fitness opportunity we see for Peloton, how the combination of our world-class fitness hardware and software and streaming media is fundamentally disrupting an industry that has seen little in terms of true innovation in the past 40 years, how our highly engaging, motivating and entertaining world-class fitness content is consumed in the comfort of your home, creating an unparalleled workout experience at an exceptional value, how the magic of network software and streaming media enables a near constant innovation cycle where your experience on Peloton platform is incrementally better every time you use it.

在過去的 2 年裡，您經常聽到我們談論我們為 Peloton 看到的互聯健身機會，我們世界一流的健身硬件和軟件以及流媒體的結合如何從根本上顛覆一個在過去 40 年的真正創新，我們如何在舒適的家中消費我們極具吸引力、激勵性和娛樂性的世界級健身內容，以非凡的價值創造無與倫比的鍛煉體驗，網絡軟件和流媒體的魔力如何實現一個幾乎持續不斷的創新周期，每次使用時，您在 Peloton 平台上的體驗都會越來越好。

What happens when we put member engagement at the center of our business strategy and adopt a Members-first mindset across every part of our operation, the benefits that come with high subscriber retention and the advantage of industry-leading Net Promoter Scores, and the power of the Peloton community that motivates and encourages millions of people in their pursuit of physical and mental wellness.

當我們將會員參與度置於我們業務戰略的中心並在我們運營的每個部分採用會員至上的心態時會發生什麼，高訂戶保留率帶來的好處以及行業領先的淨推薦值的優勢，以及激勵和鼓勵數百萬人追求身心健康的 Peloton 社區。

We believe that we are still in the first inning of Connected Fitness industry growth, and we have the opportunity to extend our leadership as the pioneer of this category.

我們相信我們仍處於互聯健身行業增長的第一局，我們有機會擴大我們作為該類別先驅的領導地位。

Our strategy remains constant.

我們的策略保持不變。

We will continue to invest aggressively behind new hardware products, software experiences and content offerings for both cardio and strength training, the 2 pillars of physical fitness.

我們將繼續積極投資新的硬件產品、軟件體驗和內容產品，用於有氧運動和力量訓練，這是身體健康的兩大支柱。

We will continue to prioritize subscription growth over near-term profitability as it's still very early days in the consumer migration to Connected Fitness in the home.

我們將繼續優先考慮訂閱增長而不是近期盈利能力，因為消費者轉向家庭互聯健身還處於早期階段。

We will continue to expand our geographic footprint while leveraging additional distribution channels like commercial and corporate wellness.

我們將繼續擴大我們的地理足跡，同時利用商業和企業健康等額外的分銷渠道。

And we will continue to drive supply chain efficiencies via a focused hardware portfolio.

我們將繼續通過專注的硬件產品組合來提高供應鏈效率。

From our beginnings, we have also consistently sought to make our products and content more accessible, lowering a key barrier to purchase.

從一開始，我們就一直致力於讓我們的產品和內容更容易獲得，從而降低購買的主要障礙。

In 2017, we began offering a 0% financing option.

2017 年，我們開始提供 0% 的融資選擇。

In 2019, we introduced our no risk 30-day home trial.

2019 年，我們推出了 30 天無風險家庭試用。

Last year, with the introduction of Bike+, we lowered the price of our original Bike.

去年，隨著 Bike+ 的推出，我們降低了原來自行車的價格。

Earlier this year, we reduced the price of our digital app for frontline health care workers, active military, first responders and full-time students.

今年早些時候，我們降低了面向一線醫護人員、現役軍人、急救人員和全日制學生的數字應用程序的價格。

And just a few weeks ago, we introduced Peloton Corporate Wellness, further increasing the accessibility of our products through subsidy, relationships with corporate partners and health care providers.

就在幾週前，我們推出了 Peloton Corporate Wellness，通過補貼、與企業合作夥伴和醫療保健提供者的關係進一步提高了我們產品的可及性。

Today, we announced our latest step on the journey to broaden the accessibility of our products.

今天，我們宣布了我們在擴大產品可訪問性方面的最新舉措。

We are lowering the price of our original Bike by $400 to $1,495.

我們將原裝自行車的價格降低了 400 美元，降至 1,495 美元。

Applying our 39-month 0% APR financing option, this equates to a hardware cost of just $39 per month.

應用我們的 39 個月 0% APR 融資選項，這相當於每月僅 39 美元的硬件成本。

Adding our all access membership comes to just $78 per month, a monthly spend that scales across an entire household, creating an incredible value versus almost any other fitness offering.

添加我們的所有訪問會員資格每月只需 78 美元，每月的支出可擴展到整個家庭，與幾乎任何其他健身產品相比，創造了令人難以置信的價值。

For a 2-person household inclusive of the All-Access Membership, that's under $40 per person per month during the finance period and less than $20 per person per month thereafter.

對於包括無障礙會員在內的 2 人家庭，在財政期間每人每月不到 40 美元，此後每人每月不到 20 美元。

Today, we are also introducing revised financing options for our Bike+ and Tread products, extending our 39-month option to 43 months option, equating to a monthly payment of approximately $59 per month during the finance period.

今天，我們還為我們的 Bike+ 和 Tread 產品引入了修改後的融資選項，將我們的 39 個月選項擴展到 43 個月選項，相當於在財務期間每月支付約 59 美元。

As before, we will continue to offer 12-month and 24-month options as well.

和以前一樣，我們也將繼續提供 12 個月和 24 個月的選擇。

Democratizing access to our platform has always been our goal for our team.

民主化訪問我們的平台一直是我們團隊的目標。

With our supply constraints largely solved now, we're seizing this opportunity today to continue to deliver against one of our key strategic priorities.

現在我們的供應限制已基本解決，我們今天抓住這個機會繼續實現我們的關鍵戰略重點之一。

Now turning to some highlights for the quarter.

現在轉向本季度的一些亮點。

Our community has now passed 5.9 million members globally, up 93% year-on-year and over 320% from the year ending fiscal 2019.

我們的社區現已在全球擁有超過 590 萬名成員，同比增長 93%，比截至 2019 財年的年度增長超過 320%。

Total platform workouts in the quarter reached 154.5 million, up 86% year-on-year and reflecting roughly 8x the number of workouts completed in Q4 of fiscal 2019.

本季度平台鍛煉總數達到 1.545 億次，同比增長 86%，大約是 2019 財年第四季度完成鍛煉數量的 8 倍。

In Q4, we averaged 19.9 monthly workouts per Connected Fitness subscription versus 24.7 in the year ago period.

在第四季度，我們平均每個 Connected Fitness 訂閱每月鍛煉 19.9 次，而去年同期為 24.7 次。

As expected, engagement levels were lower sequentially and on a year-over-year basis as typical seasonal trends associated with improved weather and consumer mobility have reemerged.

正如預期的那樣，由於與天氣改善和消費者流動性相關的典型季節性趨勢重新出現，參與度環比和同比均有所下降。

Last year's engagement benefited significantly from lockdown orders, work-from-home mandates and gym closures.

去年的參與度大大受益於封鎖令、在家工作的要求和健身房關閉。

On a 2-year basis, monthly workouts per Connected Fitness subscription increased 66% from 12.0% in Q4 of fiscal 2019, validating our significant software and content investments.

在 2 年的基礎上，每個 Connected Fitness 訂閱的每月鍛煉量從 2019 財年第四季度的 12.0% 增加了 66%，驗證了我們在軟件和內容方面的重大投資。

As a result of our efforts to keep our members engaged, Connected Fitness retention rates remain very strong, with average Connected Fitness monthly churn of 0.73% in Q4 and 0.61% for fiscal year 2021.

由於我們努力保持會員的參與度，Connected Fitness 保留率仍然非常高，Connected Fitness 第四季度的平均每月流失率為 0.73%，2021 財年為 0.61%。

Moving on to Tread.

繼續前進。

As we announced on Tuesday of this week, we are thrilled to commence U.S. sales and resume U.K. and Canada sales on August 30, finally bringing this incredible product to market in the U.S. ahead of the key holiday selling season.

正如我們在本週二宣布的那樣，我們很高興在 8 月 30 日開始美國銷售並恢復英國和加拿大的銷售，最終在關鍵的假日銷售季節之前將這款令人難以置信的產品推向美國市場。

Similar to how we reimagined what a stationary bike workout can be, our new Tread experience brings game-changing full-body workouts into the home.

與我們重新構想固定自行車鍛煉的方式類似，我們全新的 Tread 體驗將改變遊戲規則的全身鍛煉帶入家中。

The early consumer reception supports our enthusiasm with a Net Promoter Score for our all-new Tread of 85 in our initial U.K. and Canada launch markets, an incredible result for a brand-new product.

早期的消費者反響支持了我們的熱情，我們的全新 Tread 在我們最初的英國和加拿大發布市場上獲得了 85 的淨推薦值，這對於全新產品來說是一個令人難以置信的結果。

And to be sure, the software and content is only getting better.

可以肯定的是，軟件和內容只會越來越好。

As we have said, we believe the opportunity for our new Tread is 2 to 3x the size of the bike category.

正如我們所說，我們相信我們新 Tread 的機會是自行車類別規模的 2 到 3 倍。

Sales of our slat belt Tread+ product, which has only been available in the U.S., remain paused as we continue to work on a retrofittable hardware modification to further enhance Tread+'s safety profile.

我們的板條帶 Tread+ 產品僅在美國有售，銷售仍暫停，因為我們繼續致力於可改裝的硬件修改，以進一步提高 Tread+ 的安全性。

As the category leader, we see a clear opportunity and, frankly, responsibility to innovate on safety, and we are encouraged by the progress being made across our teams.

作為類別領導者，我們看到了一個明確的機會，坦率地說，我們有責任在安全方面進行創新，我們對我們團隊所取得的進步感到鼓舞。

Now I'll hand it over to Jill to review our Q4 financial results and outlook for fiscal 2022.

現在我將把它交給吉爾來審查我們第四季度的財務業績和 2022 財年的展望。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

I will start with a review of our fourth quarter results.

我將從回顧我們的第四季度業績開始。

In Q4, we generated total revenue of $937 million, representing 54% year-on-year growth.

第四季度，我們的總收入為 9.37 億美元，同比增長 54%。

The primary drivers leading to our revenue outperformance versus guidance were higher-than-expected Bike deliveries and better-than-expected Connected Fitness churn.

導致我們的收入表現優於預期的主要驅動因素是高於預期的自行車交付量和高於預期的 Connected Fitness 客戶流失率。

This was partially offset by a higher-than-anticipated Tread and Tread+ return rate.

這部分被高於預期的 Tread 和 Tread+ 回報率所抵消。

We made significant progress on product wait times with Bike and Bike+ order-to-delivery windows at prepandemic levels for the past several weeks.

過去幾週，我們在大流行前水平的 Bike 和 Bike+ 訂單到交付窗口的產品等待時間方面取得了重大進展。

We added 250,000 net Connected Fitness subscriptions in the quarter, bringing our end of quarter Connected Fitness membership base to 2.33 million, up 114% year-on-year.

我們在本季度增加了 250,000 個 Connected Fitness 淨訂閱，使我們的季度末 Connected Fitness 會員基數達到 233 萬，同比增長 114%。

This was ahead of expectations, reflecting strong Bike and Bike+ demand as well as better-than-expected gross additions helped by secondary market sales.

這超出了預期，反映出強勁的自行車和自行車+需求以及二級市場銷售帶來的好於預期的總增加量。

Despite typical seasonality and increased consumer mobility, average net monthly Connected Fitness churn was also better than anticipated at 0.73%.

儘管存在典型的季節性和消費者流動性增加，但 Connected Fitness 的平均每月淨流失率也好於預期，為 0.73%。

As of June 30, we had over 874,000 Digital subscribers, representing 176% year-over-year growth.

截至 6 月 30 日，我們擁有超過 874,000 名數字用戶，同比增長 176%。

This was a modest sequential decline from the previous quarter, which mostly reflects the seasonality of our Digital business, which is more pronounced than for Connected Fitness.

這與上一季度相比出現了溫和的連續下降，這主要反映了我們數字業務的季節性，這比 Connected Fitness 更為明顯。

In addition, our growth in Digital quarter-to-quarter is influenced by our marketing spend, with acquisition efficiency and LTV in mind.

此外，我們的數字季度環比增長受到營銷支出的影響，同時考慮到獲取效率和 LTV。

As we discussed last quarter, we see Digital as a healthy emerging business as well as an effective path for many to upgrade to Connected Fitness.

正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，我們將數字視為健康的新興業務，也是許多人升級到互聯健身的有效途徑。

Further, Peloton's Digital accessibility and compatibility with multiple operating systems is very attractive to potential corporate wellness partners.

此外，Peloton 的 Digital 可訪問性和與多種操作系統的兼容性對潛在的企業健康合作夥伴非常有吸引力。

As a result, we expect continued growth in our Digital subscriber base in fiscal '22, albeit with some quarter-to-quarter growth rate variability.

因此，我們預計 22 財年我們的數字用戶群將繼續增長，儘管季度增長率存在一些差異。

Moving to gross margin.

轉向毛利率。

Gross margin for the quarter was 27.1%, which came below our expectations.

本季度的毛利率為 27.1%，低於我們的預期。

This was entirely due to our Connected Fitness Product segment, which had a gross margin of 11.6%, below our 21% guidance.

這完全是由於我們的互聯健身產品部門毛利率為 11.6%，低於我們 21% 的指引。

As I mentioned a moment ago, initial Tread and Tread+ return rates were higher than our forecast as of the third quarter call.

正如我剛才提到的，截至第三季度電話會議，初始 Tread 和 Tread+ 回報率高於我們的預測。

We are now recognizing a higher-than-anticipated expense associated with actual returns and have updated the return reserve rate accordingly.

我們現在認識到與實際退貨相關的高於預期的費用，並相應地更新了退貨準備金率。

Please keep in mind that we always expected some uncertainty in modeling returns, and we do not believe the delta versus our expectations is meaningful.

請記住，我們總是期望在建模回報時存在一些不確定性，並且我們認為與我們的預期相比的增量沒有意義。

The impact of recall-related returns is added back to our adjusted EBITDA, but is fully reflected on the revenue and gross profit line.

召回相關退貨的影響被加回到我們調整後的 EBITDA 中，但完全反映在收入和毛利潤線上。

The Tread recalls also have some carryover impact on our logistics and warehousing costs, which came in higher than anticipated, rounding out the balance of the shortfall in Connected Fitness margin versus expectations.

Tread 召回還對我們的物流和倉儲成本產生了一些結轉影響，這些成本高於預期，從而彌補了 Connected Fitness 利潤率與預期之間的差距。

As we are now largely past these recall-related activities, we expect a rapid return to more normalized and predictable execution across our logistics platform.

由於我們現在基本上已經完成了這些與召回相關的活動，我們預計我們的物流平台將迅速恢復到更加規範化和可預測的執行。

Subscription gross margin was 63.3%, and subscription contribution margin was 69.3%, modestly ahead of expectations as we continue to leverage fixed costs associated with content production.

訂閱毛利率為 63.3%，訂閱貢獻率為 69.3%，略高於預期，因為我們繼續利用與內容製作相關的固定成本。

As a reminder, quarter-to-quarter, we will continue to see some variability, but we have strong visibility to our goal of a subscription contribution margin target above 70%.

提醒一下，每個季度，我們將繼續看到一些變化，但我們對訂閱貢獻利潤率目標超過 70% 的目標有很強的預見性。

Turning to operating expenses.

轉向運營費用。

Total operating expense as a percent of revenue was 59.3% compared to 32.7% in Q4 last year.

總運營費用佔收入的百分比為 59.3%，而去年第四季度為 32.7%。

Operating expense deleverage was driven by our planned shift in marketing spend from Q3 to Q4, lower revenue due to recall impacts in the quarter and the impact of adding Precor to our financials.

運營費用去槓桿化的原因是我們計劃將營銷支出從第三季度轉移到第四季度，本季度召回影響導致收入減少，以及將 Precor 納入我們的財務狀況的影響。

Sales and marketing expense was 24.5% of total revenue versus the prior year period of 13.9%.

銷售和營銷費用佔總收入的 24.5%，而去年同期為 13.9%。

As planned, we ramped marketing in Q4 given our improved order-to-delivery windows, and we lapped a year ago period in which we paused the majority of our advertising spend.

按照計劃，鑑於我們改進的訂單到交付窗口，我們在第四季度加大了營銷力度，並且我們在一年前暫停了大部分廣告支出。

G&A expense was 24.8% of total revenue versus 14.2% in the prior year.

G&A 費用佔總收入的 24.8%，而上一年為 14.2%。

As you know, our business grew significantly during fiscal '21.

如您所知，我們的業務在 21 財年顯著增長。

We made substantial investments across member support, financial systems and other functions so that the organization can scale effectively with the growth of the business.

我們在成員支持、財務系統和其他職能方面進行了大量投資，以便該組織能夠隨著業務的增長而有效擴展。

With our member experience as our North Star, these investments will help us continue to improve our end-to-end member touch points.

憑藉我們作為北極星的會員體驗，這些投資將幫助我們繼續改善端到端的會員接觸點。

Also, we added Precor to our organization, which was a driver of some of the sequential increase in G&A, inclusive of legal and integration costs related to the acquisition of Precor in Q4.

此外，我們將 Precor 添加到我們的組織中，這是 G&A 連續增長的一些驅動因素，包括與第四季度收購 Precor 相關的法律和整合成本。

R&D expense was 10% of total revenue versus 4.7% in the year ago period.

研發費用佔總收入的 10%，而去年同期為 4.7%。

Similar to recent quarters, we continue to invest in developing best-in-class hardware and software teams, both organically and through acqui-hires.

與最近幾個季度類似，我們繼續投資於開發一流的硬件和軟件團隊，包括有機和通過收購聘用。

Fiscal '21 Q4 adjusted EBITDA was better than expected at a loss of $45 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of negative 4.8%.

21 財年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 好於預期，虧損 4500 萬美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為負 4.8%。

Net loss for Q4 was $313.2 million or a loss of $1.05 per basic and diluted share.

第 4 季度的淨虧損為 3.132 億美元，即每股基本股和攤薄股虧損 1.05 美元。

We ended the quarter with $1.6 billion of cash and liquid assets and have additional liquidity in the form of an untapped $285 million credit facility.

本季度結束時，我們擁有 16 億美元的現金和流動資產，並擁有 2.85 億美元未動用信貸額度形式的額外流動性。

As a reminder, our balance sheet benefited in fiscal '21 from approximately $900 million in net proceeds from our convertible note offering completed in February.

提醒一下，我們的資產負債表在 21 財年受益於 2 月份完成的可轉換票據發行的約 9 億美元淨收益。

Now on to our outlook.

現在談談我們的展望。

As you know, fiscal 2021 was a very unusual year in which both supply and demand shocks impacted our performance.

如您所知，2021 財年是非常不尋常的一年，供需衝擊都影響了我們的業績。

We are now lapping those comparisons, which makes predicting our year-over-year performance more challenging than normal.

我們現在正在對這些比較進行比較，這使得預測我們的年度業績比正常情況更具挑戰性。

The Q1 and fiscal 2022 outlook we are sharing today reflects our best current estimates and includes the following assumptions.

我們今天分享的第一季度和 2022 財年展望反映了我們當前的最佳估計，並包括以下假設。

One, a return to normal seasonal patterns where Q2 and Q3 combined comprised roughly 60% of sales, with Q1 being our lowest sales and delivery volume quarter.

第一，回歸正常的季節性模式，其中第二季度和第三季度合計約佔銷售額的 60%，其中第一季度是我們最低的銷售和交付量季度。

As in the years prior to COVID, we expect fiscal '22 sales trends to be impacted by seasonal weather as well as holiday and New Year's resolutions purchases.

與 COVID 之前的幾年一樣，我們預計 22 財年的銷售趨勢將受到季節性天氣以及假期和新年決議購買的影響。

We saw these trends going into fiscal '22.

我們看到這些趨勢進入了 22 財年。

Two, strong demand for Bike and Bike+, with higher unit sales expected than in fiscal 2021.

第二，對 Bike 和 Bike+ 的強勁需求，預計銷量將高於 2021 財年。

Three, strong acceptance of our lower-priced Tread, with our expectation that approximately 50% of Treads globally will go to existing Connected Fitness households, and therefore, those sales will not result in an incremental Connected Fitness subscription.

第三，我們對低價 Tread 的強烈接受，我們預計全球大約 50% 的 Treads 將流向現有的 Connected Fitness 家庭，因此，這些銷售不會導致 Connected Fitness 訂閱的增加。

Four, compelling net customer acquisition costs with rapid payback.

第四，引人注目的淨客戶獲取成本和快速回報。

Five, continued high engagement and healthy retention across all cohorts, including those added during the pandemic, implying expected low churn of our Connected Fitness subscriptions.

第五，所有隊列的持續高參與度和健康保留率，包括在大流行期間增加的隊列，這意味著我們的 Connected Fitness 訂閱的預期流失率較低。

Sixth, operating expense growth ahead of revenue growth as we restore sales and marketing following pandemic-related cuts and recognize the annualized impact of recent G&A investments we've made to scale our organization for growth.

第六，營業費用增長先於收入增長，因為我們在大流行相關削減後恢復了銷售和營銷，並認識到我們最近為擴大組織規模而進行的 G&A 投資的年化影響。

And last, number seven, sequentially improved Connected Fitness gross margin and positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of this year as we leverage our fixed investments in our supply chain and logistics platform and generate operating expense efficiencies.

最後，第七，由於我們利用對供應鍊和物流平台的固定投資並提高運營費用效率，今年下半年 Connected Fitness 的毛利率和調整後的 EBITDA 連續提高。

Moving on to revenue.

轉向收入。

In Q1, we expect revenue of approximately $800 million, representing 6% year-over-year growth and an 87% 2-year CAGR.

第一季度，我們預計收入約為 8 億美元，同比增長 6%，兩年復合年增長率為 87%。

Please note that our Q1 revenue assumption contemplates a very small contribution from the upcoming launch of Tread in the U.S. and resumption of sales in the U.K. and Canada due to our anticipated order-to-delivery expectations of 3 to 4 weeks and the fact that we recognize revenue upon delivery, not sale.

請注意，我們的第一季度收入假設考慮了即將在美國推出的 Tread 以及在英國和加拿大恢復銷售的非常小的貢獻，因為我們預計訂單到交貨時間為 3 至 4 週，而且我們在交付而非銷售時確認收入。

For fiscal 2022, we expect total revenue of $5.4 billion or 34% year-over-year growth and a 72% 2-year CAGR.

對於 2022 財年，我們預計總收入為 54 億美元，同比增長 34%，兩年復合年增長率為 72%。

Given our significant manufacturing capacity and logistics investments during the past year, we are entering fiscal 2022 with a normalized backlog for our Bike portfolio, and guidance reflects our expectation of continued strong demand.

鑑於我們在過去一年中大量的製造能力和物流投資，我們進入 2022 財年時我們的自行車產品組合將出現正常積壓，而指引反映了我們對持續強勁需求的預期。

Please note, we are assuming 15% of full year revenue will occur during Q1, which is below 19% in the COVID-affected fiscal '21, but modestly above the 13% contribution we saw in fiscal 2018 and 2019.

請注意，我們假設全年收入的 15% 將出現在第一季度，這在受 COVID 影響的 21 財年低於 19%，但略高於我們在 2018 年和 2019 財年看到的 13% 的貢獻。

Moving to Connected Fitness subs.

轉向 Connected Fitness 潛艇。

We expect to end Q1 with 2.47 million Connected Fitness subscriptions or 85% growth versus last year's Q1, implying 140,000 net adds.

我們預計到第一季度結束時，Connected Fitness 訂閱人數將達到 247 萬，與去年第一季度相比增長 85%，這意味著淨增加 140,000。

For Q1, we expect monthly average net churn for our Connected Fitness subscriptions of 0.85%.

對於第一季度，我們預計 Connected Fitness 訂閱的月平均淨流失率為 0.85%。

Please note that after this quarter, we will no longer guide monthly average net churn of our Connected Fitness subscriptions on a quarterly or annual basis.

請注意，在本季度之後，我們將不再按季度或年度指導 Connected Fitness 訂閱的月平均淨流失率。

As we have discussed in the past, this is a difficult metric to forecast with precision, and we, therefore, do not see the value in continuing to provide guidance.

正如我們過去所討論的那樣，這是一個很難精確預測的指標，因此我們看不到繼續提供指導的價值。

However, churn remains a very important metric to us, and we will continue to report our actual results each quarter.

然而，流失率對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的指標，我們將繼續每個季度報告我們的實際結果。

Everything we do at Peloton is designed to keep our members engaged and our churn rate low.

我們在 Peloton 所做的一切都是為了讓我們的會員保持參與並降低我們的流失率。

And over time, we expect our churn and retention rates to remain relatively consistent.

隨著時間的推移，我們預計我們的流失率和保留率將保持相對穩定。

For fiscal 2022, we forecast ending Connected Fitness subscriptions of 3.63 million, implying 56% growth year-over-year and 1.3 million net adds.

對於 2022 財年，我們預測 Connected Fitness 訂閱人數將達到 363 萬，這意味著同比增長 56%，淨增加 130 萬。

Similar to revenue, our guidance assumes normalized seasonality, with Q1 net adds representing 11% of the full year total, down from 20% last year but similar to the 12% we saw in fiscal 2018 and 2019.

與收入類似，我們的指引假設正常化季節性，第一季度淨增加佔全年總數的 11%，低於去年的 20%，但與我們在 2018 和 2019 財年看到的 12% 相似。

Moving on to margin.

繼續保證金。

We expect total company gross margin of 33% in Q1 and 34% in fiscal 2022, which is based on a Connected Fitness product gross margin of 15% in Q1 and 23% for fiscal 2022.

我們預計第一季度公司總毛利率為 33%，2022 財年為 34%，這是基於第一季度 Connected Fitness 產品毛利率為 15%，2022 財年為 23%。

The year-over-year gross margin compression reflects the following factors: one, the impact of our price reduction on the original Bike that we announced this afternoon; two, the sales mix impact from launching Tread, which currently carries a lower margin than our Bike portfolio; and three, significantly elevated cost of certain commodities, including steel and semiconductors as well as freight rates multiple times higher than normal.

同比毛利率壓縮反映了以下因素：第一，我們對今天下午宣布的原始自行車降價的影響；第二，推出 Tread 對銷售組合的影響，目前 Tread 的利潤率低於我們的 Bike 產品組合；三是鋼鐵、半導體等部分大宗商品成本大幅上漲，運費比平時高出數倍。

As we've mentioned previously, we manage our Connected Fitness Product segment to optimize for gross profit dollars rather than gross margin percentage.

正如我們之前提到的，我們管理互聯健身產品部門以優化毛利潤而不是毛利率百分比。

While introducing a more accessible price point for Bike and a higher sales mix of Tread will lower our gross margin percentage in the near term, these are strategic actions that expand our addressable market and will be highly accretive to gross profit dollars over time.

雖然為 Bike 引入更容易獲得的價格點和更高的 Tread 銷售組合將在短期內降低我們的毛利率，但這些都是擴大我們的目標市場的戰略行動，並且隨著時間的推移將大大增加毛利潤。

We continue to expect Connected Fitness gross profit to largely offset our fully loaded CAC over time, and our fiscal year '22 guidance assumes a modestly positive net tax, which follows a significantly negative net CAC in fiscal year 2021.

隨著時間的推移，我們繼續預計 Connected Fitness 的毛利潤將在很大程度上抵消我們滿載的 CAC，並且我們的 22 財年指南假設淨稅適度為正，而 2021 財年淨 CAC 為負。

While our current guidance reflects our best estimates of today for commodity costs and freight rates, it's possible we may see additional pressure on our Connected Fitness margin if costs are materially worse than we expect or if component shortages necessitate expedited shipping costs.

雖然我們目前的指引反映了我們對今天商品成本和運費的最佳估計，但如果成本比我們預期的要差得多，或者如果組件短缺需要加快運輸成本，我們可能會看到我們的 Connected Fitness 利潤率面臨額外壓力。

We continue to see tightness in component supply, but we have and are taking steps to prepare for a strong holiday season and balance of fiscal year 2022 demand.

我們繼續看到零部件供應緊張，但我們已經並且正在採取措施為強勁的假期和 2022 財年的需求平衡做準備。

Lead times for certain components continue to be abnormally long and were, therefore, utilizing longer-term commitments with our supplier base while expanding our supply chain partnerships in order to limit any disruption.

某些組件的交貨時間仍然異常長，因此我們在擴大我們的供應鏈合作夥伴關係的同時，利用與我們的供應商基礎的長期承諾，以限制任何中斷。

Connected Fitness margin in Q1 will also be significantly impacted by last-mile delivery costs given the seasonality of our business.

鑑於我們業務的季節性，第一季度的 Connected Fitness 利潤率也將受到最後一英里交付成本的顯著影響。

Peloton's last-mile logistics is an important aspect of our member experience.

Peloton 的最後一英里物流是我們會員體驗的一個重要方面。

The fixed investments we have made in warehouses, vehicles and people in our delivery network are carried throughout the year.

我們對配送網絡中的倉庫、車輛和人員進行的固定投資全年進行。

Therefore, we will experience higher fixed cost absorption during our smaller volume first quarter, but expect significant leverage of these expenses in the remaining quarters of fiscal 2022.

因此，我們將在第一季度銷量較小的時候經歷更高的固定成本吸收，但預計在 2022 財年的剩餘季度中這些費用會產生顯著的槓桿作用。

We expect a subscription contribution margin of 68% in Q1 and for the full year, with the improvement to last year reflecting continued fixed cost leverage.

我們預計第一季度和全年的認購貢獻率為 68%，與去年相比的改善反映了持續的固定成本槓桿作用。

Turning to operating expenses.

轉向運營費用。

As I alluded to earlier, we are planning fiscal 2022 as an investment year in marketing our products and optimizing operations after making significant investments to scale our organization.

正如我之前提到的，在為擴大我們的組織進行了大量投資之後，我們計劃將 2022 財年作為營銷產品和優化運營的投資年。

During fiscal 2021, we dramatically curtailed media spend due to supply constraints and were largely off air during important holiday and New Year's resolution selling periods, which created a synthetically low spend level that we will lap in the coming year.

在 2021 財年，由於供應限制，我們大幅削減了媒體支出，並且在重要的假期和新年決議銷售期間基本上停播，這造成了我們將在來年超越的綜合低支出水平。

As we restore media investments in fiscal 2022, we expect material year-over-year deleverage in sales and marketing during Q1 and for the full year.

隨著我們在 2022 財年恢復媒體投資，我們預計第一季度和全年的銷售和營銷將出現實質性的同比去槓桿化。

During fiscal '21, we also scaled our organization to support the higher-than-anticipated growth in our member base since the onset of the pandemic.

在 21 財年期間，我們還擴大了我們的組織規模，以支持我們的會員群自大流行病爆發以來高於預期的增長。

Much of the needed investments are now largely in place, but the annual impact of a higher G&A base will drive year-over-year deleverage in fiscal 2022.

大部分所需投資現已基本到位，但較高的 G&A 基數的年度影響將推動 2022 財年的同比去槓桿化。

As we expect more modest sequential G&A growth going forward, we expect to achieve healthy leverage on this expense base starting next fiscal year.

由於我們預計未來 G&A 的連續增長會更加溫和，因此我們預計從下個財政年度開始將在此費用基礎上實現健康的槓桿作用。

Finally, R&D will continue to increase as a result of both organic and acquisition-related spend on hardware and software development.

最後，由於在硬件和軟件開發方面的有機支出和收購相關支出，研發將繼續增加。

Based on these factors, we expect adjusted EBITDA loss to be $285 million in Q1 and a loss of $325 million in fiscal '22 or a negative 6% adjusted EBITDA margin.

基於這些因素，我們預計第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2.85 億美元，22 財年虧損 3.25 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率為負 6%。

Keep in mind that in the absence of COVID, we would not have anticipated or intended to be profitable during fiscal '21.

請記住，在沒有 COVID 的情況下，我們不會預期或打算在 21 財年期間盈利。

Although our profitability will step back in fiscal 2022 for the reasons I've outlined, we are very confident about the economic profile of our business model and expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable again in fiscal 2023.

儘管由於我概述的原因，我們的盈利能力將在 2022 財年回落，但我們對我們商業模式的經濟狀況非常有信心，並預計在 2023 財年調整後的 EBITDA 再次盈利。

Lastly, we'd like to provide some thoughts on forward capital expenditures.

最後，我們想提供一些關於遠期資本支出的想法。

As you know, we officially broke ground on Peloton Output Park a couple of weeks ago.

如您所知，我們幾週前在 Peloton Output Park 正式破土動工。

We're glad to be underway with this project, and we're looking forward to building Peloton products here in the U.S.

我們很高興能參與這個項目，我們期待著在美國製造 Peloton 產品。

As we outlined previously, we expect to invest approximately $400 million over the next 2 years on this plant, with much of that spend expected to occur in fiscal year 2022.

正如我們之前概述的那樣，我們預計在未來 2 年內將向該工廠投資約 4 億美元，其中大部分支出預計將發生在 2022 財年。

In addition, we continue to make material investments in our supply chain, IT systems and our retail footprint, both domestically and internationally.

此外，我們繼續在國內和國際上對我們的供應鏈、IT 系統和我們的零售足跡進行重大投資。

These investments, which will position us for continued growth, will bring total capital spending to approximately $600 million in fiscal 2022.

這些投資將使我們保持持續增長，並使 2022 財年的總資本支出達到約 6 億美元。

Looking out to fiscal 2023, we expect capital spend to taper.

展望 2023 財年，我們預計資本支出將逐漸減少。

Lastly, we continue to see a decline in customer deposits with the rollout of deferred payment capture.

最後，隨著延期付款捕獲的推出，我們繼續看到客戶存款下降。

While this migration does not impact revenue recognition, it will continue to apply modest working capital pressure until fully deployed.

雖然此遷移不會影響收入確認，但在完全部署之前它將繼續施加適度的營運資金壓力。

We've completed the full rollout of deferred payment capture in the U.S. and expect a full global rollout in the coming quarters.

我們已經在美國完成了延期付款捕獲的全面推出，並預計在未來幾個季度將在全球範圍內全面推出。

Operator, please open the line for questions.

接線員，請打開問題線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

One for John and one for Jill.

一份給約翰，一份給吉爾。

John, we know there's seasonality.

約翰，我們知道有季節性。

But just given the light 1Q guide, is the price -- is the Bike price gotten offensive or defensive?

但僅給出 1Q 指南，價格 - 自行車價格是進攻性還是防禦性？

And how do you think about demand for Bike+ currently?

您如何看待目前對 Bike+ 的需求？

And then, Jill, hoping you can walk through a little bit more detail around the Tread gross margin structure perhaps relative to Bike or even Tread+ a couple of years ago when it first came out.

然後，吉爾，希望你能更詳細地了解 Tread 毛利率結構，也許與幾年前 Bike 甚至 Tread+ 剛問世時有關。

Thank you, Doug.

謝謝你，道格。

So as Jill said in her opening remarks, we feel like the demand for Bike+ and Bike is robust, and we feel good about the entire year's forecast.

因此，正如吉爾在開場白中所說，我們覺得對 Bike+ 和 Bike 的需求強勁，我們對全年的預測感到滿意。

The price drop with [B1] was absolutely offensive as we think about the competitive landscape and we think about democratizing the access to great fitness, which has, as you know, always been in our playbook.

[B1] 的降價絕對令人反感，因為我們考慮到競爭格局，我們正在考慮使獲得良好健身的途徑民主化，正如你所知，這一直在我們的劇本中。

This is actually the first year since we founded the company that we had the opportunity to do this, and we're super excited that the investments we've made in our supply chain certainly over the last few years, but definitely in the last 12 months, are bearing enough fruit that we have the capacity to make what will become -- what will look like close to 2 million fitness units of hardware this year, which is just incredible considering, when we founded the company, we approached the biggest contract manufacturer we could find, and they said that they were confident that they could make up to 10,000 Bikes a year.

這實際上是自我們成立公司以來我們有機會這樣做的第一年，我們非常興奮我們在供應鏈上的投資肯定是在過去幾年，但絕對是在過去 12 年幾個月，結出了足夠的果實，我們有能力製造出未來的東西——今年看起來將有近 200 萬個健身單位的硬件，考慮到我們成立公司時，這真是令人難以置信，我們接觸了最大的合同我們可以找到製造商，他們說他們有信心每年可以生產 10,000 輛自行車。

That was only 8 years ago.

那隻是8年前。

So the scale of which we've seen and put in place and invested in across our entire supply chain with Bikes.

因此，我們已經看到並在整個供應鏈中投資了 Bikes 的規模。

And now, obviously, it includes Treads.

現在，很明顯，它包括 Treads。

And the lower-priced Tread as well allowed us to consider lowering the price of B1 , and we think it's the right thing for our business, obviously, solving for net new sub adds, which was kind of our True North of getting more people into the tent and thinking about the LTV of those users, not just, Doug -- interestingly, not just as a subscriber for the $39 for a new Bike sub, which has always been kind of our True North and the golden goose of our business model, but think about selling those same people, the same households, future Treads and future products, apparel and all the other stuff that becomes a much broader LTV picture over time.

價格較低的 Tread 也讓我們考慮降低 B1 的價格，我們認為這對我們的業務來說是正確的，顯然，解決淨新增子問題，這是我們讓更多人進入的真正北方帳篷並考慮這些用戶的 LTV，不僅僅是 Doug - 有趣的是，不僅僅是作為訂閱者以 39 美元的價格購買新的 Bike sub，這一直是我們的真北和我們商業模式的金鵝，但考慮銷售相同的人、相同的家庭、未來的 Treads 和未來的產品、服裝和所有其他隨著時間的推移會成為更廣泛 LTV 畫面的東西。

Doug, just -- sorry?

道格，只是——抱歉？

Sorry.

對不起。

Did -- William, did you want to chime in?

有沒有——威廉，你想插話嗎？

No, I was just going to say on the price -- Jill, thanks.

不，我只是想說說價格——吉爾，謝謝。

This is William.

這是威廉。

Just on the pricing, Doug, just underscoring the point about it being offensive and strategic, as Jill said, we've, as you might imagine, done extensive testing on elasticity for pricing on Bike, both in terms of in-market testing as well as qualitative and quantitative.

就定價而言，Doug，正如 Jill 所說，只是強調它具有攻擊性和戰略性的觀點，正如您可能想像的那樣，我們已經對 Bike 的定價彈性進行了廣泛的測試，無論是在市場測試方面還是以及定性和定量。

And that testing gave us a lot of conviction that this price point will drive the kind of growth that's in the guidance, but also makes this price drop very strategic as we look at unit economics going forward.

那次測試讓我們堅信，這個價格點將推動指導中的增長，但也讓我們在展望未來的單位經濟學時，讓這個價格下降變得非常具有戰略意義。

And so it's super consistent, as John noted, with our strategy around accessibility.

因此，正如 John 指出的那樣，它與我們圍繞可訪問性的策略非常一致。

We introduced financing in October of '17.

我們在 17 年 10 月引入了融資。

That was the first move, 30-day home trial.

這是第一步，為期 30 天的家庭試用。

Jill talked about or app moves and accessibility around frontline workers and what we've done with the military and student rates.

吉爾談到了前線工作人員的應用程序移動和可訪問性，以及我們對軍隊和學生費率所做的工作。

So we feel like this is just a continuation of that strategy and allows us to continue our lead in Connected Fitness as we add more and more households to the membership.

所以我們覺得這只是該戰略的延續，隨著越來越多的家庭加入會員，我們可以繼續在 Connected Fitness 方面保持領先地位。

Great.

偉大的。

And I might just add and then obviously answer your question around Tread gross margins is, for fiscal '22, we are expecting a slightly positive net customer acquisition cost, which we think is an incredible trade-off for the LTV of the sub that we get, which John mentioned.

我可能只是補充一下，然後顯然回答你關於 Tread 毛利率的問題是，對於 22 財年，我們預計淨客戶獲取成本會略微為正，我們認為這對我們的子 LTV 來說是一個令人難以置信的權衡得到，約翰提到的。

And so the economics for us were incredibly compelling, especially doing so in a position where we had order-to-delivery in a really good spot in manufacturing in a great spot.

因此，對我們來說，經濟效益令人難以置信，尤其是在我們在製造業的一個非常好的地方從訂單到交貨的情況下這樣做。

As it relates to Tread gross margin, just a couple of pieces in the backdrop.

由於它與胎面毛利率有關，因此背景中只有幾件。

Obviously, we noted that we are facing commodity cost and freight rate increases at the moment across all of our products.

顯然，我們注意到我們所有產品目前都面臨商品成本和運費上漲的問題。

So as a starting point, and as you know, too, as a starting point, we've only just started producing Treads over the last several months.

因此，作為起點，正如你所知，作為起點，我們在過去幾個月才剛剛開始生產 Treads。

So we have a very long runway to get economies of scale there.

因此，我們有很長的跑道可以在那裡實現規模經濟。

So think about our margin profile in the low teens.

因此，請考慮一下我們在十幾歲時的利潤率狀況。

But also, I would put in the back of your mind, think about what we did with Bike over the last 5 years.

但同時，我會提醒您，想想過去 5 年我們對 Bike 所做的一切。

On an index level, let's say, 5 years ago, it cost us $1 to make a bike.

在指數水平上，比方說，5 年前，製造一輛自行車的成本為 1 美元。

It costs us $0.40 today, even with the commodity and freight rate increases.

即使在商品和運費上漲的情況下，它今天的成本為 0.40 美元。

So I think given our very lean portfolio and our ability to build very few SKUs with great capacity will give us a tremendous margin power over the next few years.

因此，我認為，鑑於我們非常精簡的產品組合以及我們構建極少數 SKU 的能力，我們將在未來幾年內為我們提供巨大的利潤空間。

And then I might just add, especially with Tread, as we think about moving production to the U.S., avoiding those shipping costs and freight costs is also going to be very margin-accretive going forward.

然後我可能會補充說，特別是對於 Tread，當我們考慮將生產轉移到美國時，避免這些運輸成本和貨運成本也將在未來非常增加利潤。

So this is just the beginning.

所以這僅僅是個開始。

It's a little bit of a double whammy effect with Tread this year, right?

今年跟 Tread 有點雙打的效果吧？

You're going to have less efficient marketing as we build product awareness, and we're going to have lower gross margin, and both of those will become more efficient over time.

隨著我們建立產品知名度，您的營銷效率將會降低，我們的毛利率將會降低，並且隨著時間的推移，這兩者都會變得更有效率。

Our next question comes from Justin Post of Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

Great.

偉大的。

Maybe we could get on the Tread.

也許我們可以踏上這條路。

Can you help us all understand -- I appreciate the 50% sub contribution per unit, but how you think about units this year and how you thought about the launches in Canada and U.K., what you learned there, and maybe the differences between the U.S. launch and the Canada U.K. launches?

你能幫助我們所有人理解——我感謝每單位 50% 的子貢獻，但你如何看待今年的單位，你如何看待加拿大和英國的發射，你在那裡學到了什麼，也許美國之間的差異發射和加拿大英國發射？

Justin, this is John.

賈斯汀，這是約翰。

Thank you for asking.

謝謝你的慰問。

We love the Tread category.

我們喜歡 Tread 類別。

We have said we are going to win the Tread category.

我們說過我們將贏得 Tread 類別。

And so I'm glad you're asking about it.

所以我很高興你問這個問題。

I'm going to back up a little bit further to your question about what we learned in Canada and the U.K. and tell you what we learned with the Tread+, which has been in the market for even longer.

我將進一步回答你關於我們在加拿大和英國學到了什麼的問題，並告訴你我們從市場上銷售時間更長的 Tread+ 學到了什麼。

We've been learning a ton about the experiences and the programming with the software and the contents evolving significantly over the past 2 years since the Tread+ has been in the market.

自 Tread+ 上市以來的過去 2 年裡，我們一直在學習大量關於軟件的經驗和編程以及內容的顯著發展。

So we kind of -- you could think about it as a proof of concept with that platform so that when the lower-priced Tread hits the market here in the U.S. next week and back on sale in the U.K. and Canada as well and then very quickly in Germany, we kind of have a 2-year head start on ourselves of protecting that experience.

所以我們有點 - 你可以將其視為該平台的概念證明，以便當價格較低的 Tread 下週在美國上市並在英國和加拿大重新銷售時，然後非常很快在德國，我們就有了 2 年的領先優勢來保護這種體驗。

But specifically to your question about the reception in Canada and the U.K., I have to point out the 85% Net Promoter Score that we saw in those markets right away, which is just incredible for a new product, considering that the software and the content are going to continue to get better.

但具體到你關於加拿大和英國接待的問題，我必須指出我們立即在這些市場上看到的 85% 的淨推薦值，考慮到軟件和內容，這對於新產品來說真是不可思議會繼續變得更好。

In the early days of selling bikes, I would talk to individual members who are on the fence, and I said, "Listen, buy the Bike.

在賣自行車的早期，我會和持觀望態度的會員交談，我說，“聽著，買自行車。

Trust me, every quarter, the software and the content is going to get better." And going back, if you talk to some [OG Pelotoners] who had their Bike for 6 or 7 years, that's absolutely what they've experienced.

相信我，每個季度，軟件和內容都會變得更好。”回過頭來看，如果你和一些擁有自行車 6 或 7 年的 [OG Pelotoners] 交談，那絕對是他們所經歷的。

And so that same promise holds true with the Tread, and we're super excited about that category, not just for running, of course, and I think you know this, Justin, but for everyone on the call, it is also a strength platform of sorts.

因此，同樣的承諾也適用於 Tread，我們對這一類別感到非常興奮，當然，不僅僅是跑步，我想你知道這一點，賈斯汀，但對於每個人來說，這也是一種力量各種平台。

When you think about the boot camp content and the circuit workouts that you get on and off the Tread with the Strive Scores and the tethering when you're off the Tread and your heart rate monitor is still helping you stay connected in the experience.

當您考慮新兵訓練營的內容以及您在 Tread 上和下車時使用 Strive Scores 進行的巡迴訓練，以及在您離開 Tread 時的網絡共享，您的心率監測器仍在幫助您在體驗中保持聯繫。

So it's an incredible platform.

所以這是一個不可思議的平台。

We're super excited about it.

我們對此非常興奮。

We're super proud of it, and we're very pleased that it's going to be back on sale next week.

我們為此感到非常自豪，我們很高興它將於下週重新開始銷售。

And then just to chime in on the 50%, we wanted to give you all just a guidepost just so that you could better understand the contribution to Connected Fitness subscriptions with Tread and wanted to make sure that wasn't overstated in any way.

然後只是為了加入 50%，我們只想給大家提供一個指南，以便您可以更好地了解 Tread 對 Connected Fitness 訂閱的貢獻，並希望確保這不會以任何方式被誇大。

I think as you think through the trends that we saw, of course, when you have very low brand awareness in a product, your existing member base are going to be the ones first raising their hands to buy the product, and that's what we saw in the U.K. That's also, to John's point, what we saw with Tread+ in the very early days.

我認為當你思考我們看到的趨勢時，當然，當你對產品的品牌知名度很低時，你現有的會員群將是第一個舉手購買該產品的人，這就是我們所看到的在英國。對於 John 而言，這也是我們在早期看到的 Tread+ 的情況。

So that 50%, think about it like a blended average.

所以那 50%，把它想像成一個混合平均值。

But of course, as we get the word out and we ramp up our incredible marketing efforts around our all-new lower-priced Tread, I think what you're going to see is very high existing members buying the Tread, but that percentage coming down we get the word out and we launch our marketing campaigns around that and attract incremental subscribers to the platform.

但是，當然，隨著我們宣傳並圍繞我們全新的低價 Tread 加大我們令人難以置信的營銷力度，我認為您將看到非常多的現有會員購買 Tread，但這個百分比即將到來down 我們把消息傳出去，並圍繞它開展營銷活動，並吸引更多的用戶加入該平台。

Your next question comes from Ed Yruma of KeyBanc Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Ed Yruma。

Jill, just first on the gross margin differential on [B1].

吉爾，首先是關於 [B1] 的毛利率差異。

I know you gave some color there.

我知道你在那裡給了一些顏色。

But just try to really understand again, have the price reductions over time been funded by your manufacturing efficiencies?

但是，請再次嘗試真正了解，隨著時間的推移，價格下降是否由您的製造效率提供資金？

Kind of how much is still left?

大概還剩多少？

And kind of what's the timing in terms of getting the gross profit generated by one device to offset CAC?

以及讓一台設備產生的毛利抵消 CAC 的時機是什麼時候？

And then as a follow-up, lots of exciting stuff in corporate wellness.

然後作為後續行動，企業健康方面有很多令人興奮的事情。

How should we think about the margin profile there?

我們應該如何考慮那裡的利潤率？

Great.

偉大的。

So on the first one, obviously, what we've seen over the last several years, as I've said earlier, is that we've been able to get incredible costs of our Bike product over the last 5 to 6 years to the tune of about 70% to 80%, right, versus what we were paying for a bike 5 or 6 years ago.

所以在第一個方面，很明顯，正如我之前所說，我們在過去幾年中看到的是，在過去的 5 到 6 年裡，我們的 Bike 產品的成本達到了令人難以置信的水平與 5 或 6 年前我們為一輛自行車支付的價格相比，調整了大約 70% 到 80%，對。

And as you look at our original Bike, it's our most mature supply chain.

當您查看我們原來的 Bike 時，它是我們最成熟的供應鏈。

And -- but for us, we think at a $1,495 entry point, it is absolutely worth the ability for us to grow our addressable market and sacrifice gross profit margin percentage because we do think the gross profit dollars matter here more.

而且 - 但對我們來說，我們認為在 1,495 美元的入口點，我們絕對值得發展我們的潛在市場並犧牲毛利率百分比，因為我們確實認為毛利率美元在這裡更重要。

And over time, even though we are going slightly net positive in CAC this year, we -- that will revert very quickly our market -- with marketing efficiencies and with the conversion uplift that we expect.

隨著時間的推移，儘管我們今年的 CAC 略有淨正增長，但我們 - 這將很快恢復我們的市場 - 營銷效率和我們預期的轉化率提升。

So we think it's an absolutely right trade-off for that very valuable high margin long lifetime sub.

因此，我們認為對於非常有價值的高利潤長壽命潛艇來說，這是一個絕對正確的權衡。

Corporate wellness.

企業健康。

William?

威廉？

Jill, you want to...

吉爾，你想...

Yes.

是的。

Did you want to take that?

你想拿那個嗎？

I mean we won't be offering just a breakout in terms of the economics of that business.

我的意思是，我們不會僅僅提供該業務經濟方面的突破。

It is very, very early days.

現在還很早。

I would say, we are still building a lot of the infrastructure, both from a sales and e-com flow perspective.

我想說，我們仍在建設大量基礎設施，無論是從銷售還是電子商務流量的角度來看。

So we have, I think, fairly conservative estimates in this year, although we think it's a massive multibillion-dollar market, which I think William can address further.

因此，我認為我們對今年的估計相當保守，儘管我們認為這是一個價值數十億美元的巨大市場，我認為 William 可以進一步解決這個問題。

Sure.

當然。

It's tens of billions of dollars annually now if you look at employers and what they invest in wellness for their employees.

如果你看看雇主以及他們在員工健康方面的投資，現在每年有數百億美元。

As Jill noted, it's early.

正如吉爾指出的那樣，現在還早。

John talked about us announcing it within the last few months.

約翰談到我們在過去幾個月內宣布了它。

I will say that the initial sales rate through the partners we announced, the Accentures, Samsungs, Skies of the world has exceeded our expectation.

我要說的是，通過我們宣布的合作夥伴，埃森哲、三星、Skies 的初始銷售率超出了我們的預期。

But we feel great about that team, Cassidy Rouse and the team we put in place.

但我們對那個團隊、Cassidy Rouse 和我們組建的團隊感覺很好。

We feel great about the business model.

我們對這種商業模式感覺很好。

Just the way we think about that, just to answer your question, is very similar to the way we think about our consumer business and getting to that net CAC equation.

我們思考這個問題的方式，只是為了回答你的問題，與我們思考我們的消費者業務和獲得淨 CAC 方程式的方式非常相似。

This is a super efficient channel for us to acquire customers.

這是我們獲得客戶的超高效渠道。

So we -- that relationship between gross profit on the hardware and how we acquire this customer is very similar to how we make decisions in our consumer business.

所以我們 - 硬件毛利潤與我們如何獲得該客戶之間的關係與我們在消費者業務中做出決策的方式非常相似。

And so -- it's an acorn, but we're emboldened by the early results and not a whole lot difference as we think about margin between those channels.

所以 - 這是一個橡子，但我們對早期結果感到鼓舞，並且在我們考慮這些渠道之間的利潤時並沒有太大差異。

Our next question comes from Ron Josey of JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Ron Josey。

Great.

偉大的。

Just a quick one and a follow-up.

只是一個快速的跟進。

John, you talked about new products being positioned for just additional product launches later this year.

約翰，你談到新產品定位於今年晚些時候推出的其他產品。

Is there any details you can share on the product, insights, type of workout, et cetera, would be really helpful, and any insights on the manufacturing capacity ahead of that.

您是否可以分享有關產品的任何詳細信息、見解、鍛煉類型等，這將非常有幫助，以及在此之前對製造能力的任何見解。

And then a follow-up on the lower-priced Bike.

然後是價格較低的自行車的跟進。

Can you just talk about the impact of what that means for CPO pricing?

您能談談這對原棕油定價的影響嗎？

Ron, new products, unfortunately, we can't talk too much about them, which is frustrating to me because I am super excited about a lot of these new platforms that I get to experience and see in the R&D pipeline.

羅恩，新產品，不幸的是，我們不能談論太多，這讓我感到沮喪，因為我對在研發管道中體驗和看到的許多這些新平台感到非常興奮。

We have said that strength is a key priority for this year.

我們說過，實力是今年的重中之重。

There are some rumors of some other products that we might be working on.

有一些關於我們可能正在開發的其他產品的傳聞。

But I will say to Jill's earlier point about manufacturing scale, we're pretty focused.

但我要對吉爾之前關於製造規模的觀點說，我們非常專注。

We don't have 50 new platforms in the R&D pipeline.

我們在研發管道中沒有 50 個新平台。

We have a few that we're very excited about that we think are going to be staples in our portfolio.

我們有一些讓我們非常興奮的東西，我們認為它們將成為我們投資組合中的主要內容。

And several of them have been -- we've been working on for several years.

其中有幾個已經——我們已經努力了好幾年。

So this should be a big year for our members and the new product pipeline, and we look forward to sharing information as it's available.

因此，對於我們的成員和新產品管道來說，今年應該是重要的一年，我們期待分享可用的信息。

I think you also had a question on CPO.

我想你也有關於 CPO 的問題。

Yes.

是的。

I mean I can take that.

我的意思是我可以接受。

Nothing really to update there.

那裡真的沒有什麼可更新的。

As we've talked about in the past, we just haven't had -- given our incredibly low return rate of our Bike and Bike+, we have just not had the inventory.

正如我們過去所說，我們只是沒有——鑑於我們的 Bike 和 Bike+ 的退貨率極低，我們只是沒有庫存。

So it's a little bit of a moot point for now.

因此，目前尚無定論。

But obviously, if we ever are in an inventory position where we can launch CPO, it would certainly be priced below the new pricing for original Bike.

但顯然，如果我們處於可以推出 CPO 的庫存位置，它的價格肯定會低於原始自行車的新定價。

Our next question comes from Youssef Squali of Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Youssef Squali。

So 2 questions.

所以2個問題。

John, can you maybe speak to the -- just the quarter to the trend in demand you're seeing.

約翰，你能不能談談你所看到的需求趨勢的四分之一。

Obviously, the guidance implies a sequential decline, but maybe you can parse out the effect of the reopening relative to others like pull back and add spend, et cetera.

顯然，該指導意味著連續下降，但也許你可以分析出重新開放相對於其他因素的影響，如撤回和增加支出等。

And then, Jill, I think you said something to the effect that you expect higher unit sales of bikes in '22 than you did in '21.

然後，吉爾，我想你說過一些大意是你預計 22 年的自行車銷量比 21 年高。

If you just do a back of the envelope math, it looks like that would imply not a whole lot of sales for the new Tread.

如果你只是粗略地計算一下，這似乎意味著新 Tread 的銷量不會很大。

So I was just wondering if you can maybe provide a little more color on that.

所以我只是想知道您是否可以提供更多顏色。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

I might take the second question first, and then we can double back on the first one.

我可能會先回答第二個問題，然後我們可以加倍回答第一個問題。

So I think what you're probably noticing is that this year, we're forecasting 1.3 million net adds.

所以我想你可能注意到的是，今年我們預測淨增加 130 萬。

And last year, we added 1.24 million net adds.

去年，我們淨增加了 124 萬。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Exactly.

確切地。

Great.

偉大的。

Well, it's a really great call out.

好吧，這真是一個很棒的呼籲。

But what I might note is that in fiscal '21, our net adds were boosted a lot by the backlog that we went into.

但我可能會注意到，在 21 財年，我們的淨增加量因我們進入的積壓而大大增加。

If you remember when COVID hit in March, we went directly red line on manufacturing and went in with a pretty massive backlog going into fiscal '21 given the long OTD.

如果你還記得 COVID 在 3 月份來襲時，我們直接在製造上走紅線，並且考慮到長期的 OTD，進入 21 財年的大量積壓工作。

So I would -- so first, I would say we have much better alignment in sales and delivery time frames in fiscal 2022.

所以我會 - 首先，我會說我們在 2022 財年的銷售和交付時間框架上有更好的一致性。

And then -- so from my perspective, yes, we do forecast growth in our Bike portfolio this year on a year-over-year sales basis, but you have to take into consideration how big the backlog was that we went in.

然後 - 所以從我的角度來看，是的，我們確實預測今年我們自行車產品組合的銷量同比增長，但你必須考慮到我們進入的積壓量有多大。

And I think you'll see that, that would then imply, even with the 50% of Tread buyers being existing members, that would imply a healthy first year of robust sales of Tread.

我想你會看到，這意味著，即使 50% 的 Tread 買家是現有會員，這也意味著 Tread 健康的第一年銷售強勁。

And Youssef, we can't comment too much on the quarter-to-date trends, as you can imagine.

還有 Youssef，正如您想像的那樣，我們不能對季度至今的趨勢發表過多評論。

But I will say, and Jill alluded this in her opening remarks, is that we historically have been a very seasonal business where not only are people out running and riding their bikes in the summertime and getting outside.

但我要說的是，吉爾在她的開場白中提到了這一點，從歷史上看，我們一直是一個非常季節性的行業，人們不僅在夏季跑步、騎自行車和外出。

And this summer, I think, is exceptionally true in that sense coming out of last summer where people are on lockdown.

我認為，從去年夏天人們處於封鎖狀態的那個意義上說，今年夏天特別真實。

But we obviously don't market aggressively, and I think Jill's opening comments talked about this in the Digital business.

但我們顯然不會積極營銷，我認為吉爾的開場白在數字業務中談到了這一點。

We couldn't be more excited about the Digital business.

我們對數字業務感到無比興奮。

I think I've been one of the biggest champions for -- since day 1 in that business.

我想我一直是最偉大的冠軍之一——從第一天開始就在那個行業。

And we think that it's an incredible lead-gen business as well as a stand-alone business on its own.

我們認為這是一項令人難以置信的領先業務，也是一項獨立的業務。

And it's just not smart for us to market it aggressively in the summer vis-a-vis other times of the year.

與一年中的其他時間相比，我們在夏季積極推銷它並不明智。

So when you think about a basket of advertising dollars against your businesses, summer is generally one of the least efficient.

因此，當您考慮對您的企業進行一攬子廣告支出時，夏季通常是效率最低的一個。

So we're trying to run a little bit more disciplined business, certainly on Digital, and you could extrapolate that more broadly.

因此，我們正在嘗試經營更規範的業務，當然是在數字業務上，你可以更廣泛地推斷這一點。

But I will say, even in the face of light marketing, sales have been robust across our Bike business.

但我要說的是，即使面對輕度營銷，我們自行車業務的銷售也很強勁。

And I guess I'm not supposed to tell you, but how incredibly strong leads have been for our Tread business.

而且我想我不應該告訴你，但我們的 Tread 業務的潛在客戶是多麼強大。

So we are excited about how many leads are in the hopper for people wanting Treads, and we're excited about the demand that we've consistently seen this quarter and, frankly, since COVID hit, as you know.

因此，我們很高興看到有多少潛在客戶想要 Treads，而且我們對本季度一直看到的需求感到興奮，坦率地說，自 COVID 襲擊以來，如您所知。

Our next question comes from Jason Helfstein of Oppenheimer.

我們的下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Jason Helfstein。

So is there anything the data that suggest the kind of the longer pending Tread launch, meaning just it's been talked about obviously for a long time and all the issues that could have weighed on Bike sales, meaning you have some consumers who would only buy one device and they were kind of waiting and so that kept people potentially on the fence to decide what they wanted.

那麼，是否有任何數據表明 Tread 發布的時間更長，這意味著它顯然已經被討論了很長時間，所有可能影響自行車銷售的問題，這意味著你有一些消費者只會購買一輛設備，他們有點在等待，所以這讓人們可能會猶豫不決，無法決定他們想要什麼。

And the second question on the supply chain, we can see the inventory numbers up pretty dramatically quarter-to-quarter on the balance sheet.

關於供應鏈的第二個問題，我們可以看到資產負債表上的庫存數量每季度大幅增加。

Outside of the cost headwinds that you talked about for supply chain, are you worried at all about actually getting product to the consumer over the next -- basically through the holiday season?

除了你談到的供應鏈成本逆風之外，你是否擔心在接下來的時間——基本上是整個假期——將產品真正送到消費者手中？

Well, I can take the second question first.

好吧，我可以先回答第二個問題。

This is William.

這是威廉。

In terms of the guidance that Jill provided, we feel like we've built -- and the investments that John and Jill talked about, we built the infrastructure to support our holiday plans.

就吉爾提供的指導而言，我們覺得我們已經建立了——以及約翰和吉爾談到的投資，我們建立了基礎設施來支持我們的假期計劃。

As Jill noted, we feel like fiscal year '22 is going to be a return to more seasonality.

正如吉爾指出的那樣，我們認為 22 財年將回歸更多的季節性。

So a large part of our business is in Q2, Q3.

所以我們的很大一部分業務是在第二季度，第三季度。

And certainly, that's true of deliveries.

當然，交付也是如此。

And so everything in the supply chain from inventory that you're noting, the accumulation up on the balance sheet to warehousing and how we've expanded our warehouse footprint to our delivery infrastructures, people, vans, our last-mile facilities, all that we're staging for what will be our biggest holiday ever.

因此，供應鏈中的一切，從您注意到的庫存、資產負債表上的積累到倉儲，以及我們如何將倉庫足跡擴展到我們的交付基礎設施、人員、貨車、我們的最後一英里設施，所有這些我們正在籌備有史以來最盛大的假期。

We're very excited both in terms of the Bike growth that Jill noted and then the launch of Tread, which we expect to be very large over time.

我們對 Jill 提到的 Bike 增長以及 Tread 的推出感到非常興奮，我們預計隨著時間的推移它會非常大。

And so there's -- a lot of companies aren't in that position or reading in automotive, some of the shortages on chips and semis.

所以有 - 許多公司不在那個位置或閱讀汽車，一些芯片和半成品短缺。

So we're very proud of our team.

所以我們為我們的團隊感到非常自豪。

We think our partners, [TI], others who have helped us get in that position.

我們認為我們的合作夥伴 [TI] 以及其他幫助我們獲得該職位的人。

So inventory is up.

所以庫存增加了。

We are building inventory.

我們正在建立庫存。

As you know, the lead times with ocean freight and freight in general have extended.

如您所知，海運和一般貨運的交貨時間已經延長。

And so we've been diligent about learning from the past and feel like we're in a really good position to execute this plan this year.

因此，我們一直在努力從過去中吸取教訓，並認為我們今年處於執行該計劃的有利位置。

And just to answer the first question around Tread potentially having an impact on Bike sales, I mean, it's hard to know for sure.

只是為了回答有關 Tread 可能對自行車銷售產生影響的第一個問題，我的意思是，很難確定。

But I think based on our data, I think when you look at the leads that we have for Tread, there's a lot of existing members.

但我認為根據我們的數據，我認為當你查看我們為 Tread 獲得的線索時，有很多現有成員。

There's a lot of new people.

有很多新人。

We think it's a pretty massive category, but there's still very low awareness for us in the Tread category.

我們認為這是一個相當龐大的類別，但我們對 Tread 類別的認知度仍然很低。

So I personally don't think it influenced -- has influenced Bike sales over the last few months.

所以我個人認為它沒有影響 - 影響了過去幾個月的自行車銷售。

Our next question comes from Jonathan Komp of Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 的 Jonathan Komp。

Yes.

是的。

Jill, can I follow up on your comments about the first half and the second half adjusted EBITDA outlook?

吉爾，我可以跟進你對上半年和下半年調整後的 EBITDA 前景的評論嗎？

And any more color on the factors that you're expecting to drive the inflection to positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half.

以及您期望在下半年推動調整後 EBITDA 向正調整 EBITDA 轉變的因素的更多顏色。

Yes.

是的。

And so I would say, first off, the Connected Fitness margin is really one of the main drivers of adjusted EBITDA profitability and that variability throughout the year.

所以我想說，首先，Connected Fitness 利潤率確實是調整後 EBITDA 盈利能力和全年可變性的主要驅動因素之一。

So if you look at Q1, the Connected Fitness margin is fairly depressed, largely due to delivery cost inefficiencies given that we're having lower volumes in the quarter.

因此，如果你看看第一季度，Connected Fitness 的利潤率相當低迷，這主要是由於我們本季度的銷量較低，因此交付成本效率低下。

And of course, what that will do is reverse in Q3 -- sorry, Q2, Q3 and Q4 where we will leverage a lot of those fixed cost investments in our field operations with warehouses and people and vans.

當然，這將在第三季度發生逆轉——抱歉，第二季度、第三季度和第四季度，我們將在我們的現場運營中利用大量固定成本投資，包括倉庫、人員和貨車。

So that's going to get us a lot of leverage as we move through.

因此，這將使我們在前進過程中獲得很大的影響力。

And of course, on OpEx, we will get substantial leverage here, too, as we move through the year and have higher revenue quarters.

當然，在 OpEx 上，我們也將在這裡獲得巨大的影響力，因為我們在這一年中移動並且有更高的收入季度。

And as I said, 60% of our revenue is going to be generated in Q2 and Q3.

正如我所說，我們 60% 的收入將在第二季度和第三季度產生。

And really, Q1, I will say, is just a little bit of an anomaly, right?

真的，我會說，Q1 只是有點反常，對吧？

We've built up a cost structure to support and scale our business.

我們已經建立了一個成本結構來支持和擴展我們的業務。

We've grown member support.

我們增加了會員的支持。

We've grown manufacturing 9x over the last 16 months.

在過去的 16 個月裡，我們的製造業增長了 9 倍。

And so it will take us a couple of quarters to really see that leverage back into the system, but we expect it in the back half of the year.

因此，我們需要幾個季度才能真正看到這種影響力重新回到系統中，但我們預計會在今年下半年看到。

Okay.

好的。

That's really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

And then one other follow-up.

然後是另一個跟進。

I think, John, you mentioned at one point, unit capacity close to 2 million fitness units of hardware, I think, for this year.

我想，約翰，你曾經提到過，我認為今年的單位容量接近 200 萬個健身單位的硬件。

How should we think about the horizon to which you're building out the capacity?

我們應該如何考慮您正在建設能力的地平線？

And just any other context to how you see the hardware business scaling over the next few years relative to that 2 million-unit comment?

關於您如何看待未來幾年硬件業務相對於 200 萬台評論的擴展，還有其他任何背景嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I mean that's something we spend a lot of time on.

我的意思是這是我們花費大量時間的事情。

I'll extrapolate it also in the context of a business that's growing -- adding subs at 56% this year, and we'll continue to be a high or hyper growth company for years and years to come.

我還將在業務增長的背景下進行推斷——今年增加 56% 的訂閱者，我們將在未來數年和數年內繼續成為一家高增長或高速增長的公司。

I'll extrapolate into the idea as well with real estate in the context of our headquarters and our field ops and member experiences.

我將在我們的總部以及我們的現場操作和成員體驗的背景下推斷這個想法以及房地產。

You have to try and walk the line of seeing where you're going 5 to 10 years out, but not getting over your skis with fixed cost and overhead, and that's kind of the balance that we've had to strike over the last 6 or 8 years as we've grown the company.

你必須試著走這條路，看看你在 5 到 10 年後要去哪裡，但不要用固定的成本和間接費用來克服你的滑雪板，這就是我們在過去 6 年中必須取得的平衡或 8 年，因為我們已經發展了公司。

And to answer your question, we're excited about our investments in Ohio and stateside manufacturing.

為了回答你的問題，我們對我們在俄亥俄州和美國本土製造業的投資感到興奮。

We're excited about our continued relationship with Rexon, which is a big manufacturing partner of ours, and Tonic, which we brought in-house a couple of years ago, and continued the contract manufacturing relationships in-house.

我們很高興與 Rexon 保持合作關係，Rexon 是我們的重要製造合作夥伴，我們在幾年前將 Tonic 引入內部，並在內部繼續保持合同製造關係。

We have obviously partners on the tablet side as well, which has great scale, and we will probably always use contract manufacturers for that.

顯然，我們在平板電腦方面也有合作夥伴，規模很大，我們可能會一直使用合同製造商。

But yes, you do have to think about how do you make millions of treadmills a year -- 3 or 4 years from now.

但是，是的，您確實必須考慮如何在 3 或 4 年後每年製造數百萬台跑步機。

And our team is planning that and getting ready for it, again, trying not to get over our skis with the OpEx or the CapEx way too far in advance, but you've got to make some bets.

我們的團隊正在計劃並為此做好準備，再次嘗試不要過早地通過 OpEx 或 CapEx 克服我們的滑雪板，但你必須下一些賭注。

And as always, we're going to bet on success, not bet on failure because they kind of become self-fulfilling.

和往常一樣，我們要賭成功，而不是賭失敗，因為它們有點自我實現。

So other than that, I don't have much color for you other than we have incredible people who are planning it and continue to land the planes like they did last year and we plan to do this year.

所以除此之外，除了我們有令人難以置信的人正在計劃它並繼續像去年那樣降落飛機，我們計劃今年這樣做，我沒有太多的顏色給你。

And maybe just to add to that, just the $400 million investment in POP, the Peloton Output Park.

也許只是為了增加這一點，只是對 POP 的 4 億美元投資，Peloton 輸出公園。

That is a decade-long -- we view that as a decade-long plus investment to support that capacity growth that John is referencing.

這是一個長達十年的時間——我們認為這是一個長達十年的投資，以支持約翰所提到的產能增長。

And so we -- our goal -- we feel like we're there.

所以我們——我們的目標——我們覺得我們就在那裡。

But our goal is to continue to provide -- be the capacity leader -- cost, quality and safety leader in fitness.

但我們的目標是繼續提供——成為能力領導者——健身領域的成本、質量和安全領導者。

And there are very few companies in this fragmented market and very few factories that are producing at the kinds of volumes that we produce.

在這個分散的市場中，很少有公司和工廠能夠達到我們生產的那種產量。

So these moves, including POP, are all laid out.

所以這些動作，包括POP，都是擺出來的。

And to John's point, we look at things 10 years out to support robust growth that we're expecting in the future.

就約翰的觀點而言，我們著眼於 10 年後的事情，以支持我們未來預期的強勁增長。

Our last question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala of Credit Suisse.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

A couple of years ago at your Analyst Day, you talked about the TAM and the SAM.

幾年前，在您的分析師日，您談到了 TAM 和 SAM。

And the SAM given the pricing at the time being around 15 million potential members.

SAM 給出了當時約 1500 萬潛在會員的定價。

With the new lower price, for the new $1,500 price point, do you have an idea on how those numbers -- what those numbers may look like now?

有了新的更低的價格，對於新的 1,500 美元的價格點，您是否知道這些數字 - 這些數字現在可能是什麼樣子？

Yes.

是的。

So I think you're talking about last September 2020.

所以我想你說的是去年 2020 年 9 月。

So it was about a year ago where we talked about a household SAM.

所以大約一年前，我們討論了家用 SAM。

And again, that's existing products and product verticals at existing prices.

同樣，這是現有產品和現有價格的垂直產品。

We said an addressable household of 15 million, and that represented 20 million in Connected Fitness unit sales, obviously, given the overlap that some households will own multiple products.

我們說的是一個 1500 萬的可尋址家庭，這代表了 2000 萬的互聯健身單位銷售額，顯然，考慮到一些家庭將擁有多種產品的重疊。

And that had increased 43% from the last time we had done that analysis.

與我們上次進行該分析相比增加了 43%。

Of course, we have not rerun that analysis.

當然，我們沒有重新運行該分析。

But as you can imagine, with the observed data that William discussed in terms of the elasticity and the research that we have done, we believe that $1,495 significantly, significantly expands our addressable market.

但正如您可以想像的那樣，根據 William 在彈性方面討論的觀察數據和我們所做的研究，我們認為 1,495 美元顯著擴大了我們的目標市場。

And so we're really excited about it.

所以我們真的很興奮。

It was one of the key reasons why we did this was to continue to make our products more accessible and, of course, expand that addressable market.

我們這樣做的關鍵原因之一是繼續讓我們的產品更容易獲得，當然，還要擴大這個潛在市場。

And then there are other things that will factor into increasing SAM like the extended financing terms that we announced on Bike+ and Tread and then, of course, just the building of awareness, which frankly has been the biggest needle mover for us over the course of the last several years as we looked at addressable market.

然後還有其他因素會影響增加 SAM，例如我們在 Bike+ 和 Tread 上宣布的延長融資條款，當然還有意識的建立，坦率地說，這對我們來說是整個過程中最大的推動力在過去的幾年裡，我們著眼於潛在市場。

When you -- and Tread, just as a reminder, and Digital still have very, very low awareness relative to our Bike portfolio.

當你 - 和 Tread 時，就像一個提醒，和 Digital 相對於我們的自行車產品組合的認知度仍然非常非常低。

So I think there are tremendous gains that we're going to see over the next year now that we finally are bringing that product to the U.S.

所以我認為我們將在明年看到巨大的收益，因為我們終於將該產品帶到了美國。

Got it.

知道了。

And quickly on innovation is with the kind of timing delays with what's going on with Tread and Tread+, does that change the cascading of some of the other products you may have planned to roll out or whatever the calendar may have looked like where you'd prefer to have them spaced out?

創新很快就是 Tread 和 Tread+ 發生的時間延遲，這是否會改變您可能計劃推出的其他一些產品的級聯，或者任何日曆看起來像您想要的地方更喜歡讓它們間隔開？

Or are any original plans for new products still running on whatever the time line might have been before the recalls?

或者，無論召回之前的時間表如何，新產品的任何原始計劃是否仍在運行？

Yes.

是的。

I...

我...

Sorry.

對不起。

Go ahead.

前進。

Well, I was just going to say that we think Tread and being able to execute this Tread launch in the U.S., this is -- arguably, as John has noted, our research, and if you look at industry research, Tread is just a much bigger category than even Bike.

好吧，我只是想說我們認為 Tread 並且能夠在美國執行此 Tread 發布，這是 - 可以說，正如約翰指出的那樣，我們的研究，如果你看一下行業研究，Tread 只是一個甚至比自行車更大的類別。

And if you look at the amount of runners, boot camp, the amount of boutiques that offer this type of workout, circuit, boot camp, vis-a-vis spin, by every metric, Tread has the real possibility of being our biggest product.

如果你看看跑步者的數量、新兵訓練營、提供此類鍛煉、賽道、新兵訓練營、相對旋轉的精品店的數量，從每一個指標來看，Tread 確實有可能成為我們最大的產品.

And so we're definitely focused on this opportunity.

因此，我們絕對專注於這個機會。

We think it's an incredible product, as John noted.

正如約翰所說，我們認為這是一個了不起的產品。

Having said that, if you look at our R&D spend that Jill noted, we've never been this prolific in terms of investment in exciting new products.

話雖如此，如果你看看吉爾指出的我們的研發支出，我們在令人興奮的新產品投資方面從未如此多產。

And so we do think about the marketing and sales calendar.

所以我們確實考慮了營銷和銷售日曆。

We do think about how to make sure we execute and drive the awareness that we need to in each product, and we're not mixing messages in the marketplace.

我們確實在考慮如何確保我們在每個產品中執行和推動我們需要的意識，並且我們不會在市場上混合信息。

And Tread with low awareness right now, we see as a massive opportunity.

而現在認知度較低的 Tread，我們認為這是一個巨大的機會。

Having said that, as John noted, we're not done.

話雖如此，正如 John 指出的那樣，我們還沒有完成。

And we're investing heavily.

我們正在大力投資。

We -- the strength category has definitely been something we've been thinking about and investing in for a long time.

我們 - 實力類別絕對是我們長期以來一直在思考和投資的東西。

And so we'll -- as John noted, nothing to announce here, but definitely something we're looking towards in the near future.

因此，我們將——正如 John 指出的那樣，這裡沒有什麼可宣布的，但絕對是我們在不久的將來期待的事情。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call back over to CEO, John Foley, for closing remarks.

此時，我想將電話轉回給首席執行官 John Foley，以作結束語。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Before we wrap up, I want to share a bit of nonfinancial but interesting and important news, nonetheless.

儘管如此，在我們結束之前，我想分享一些非財務但有趣且重要的消息。

In recent surveys conducted by comparably, Peloton earned the #1 position in a ranked list of 100 top global brands, and again, the #1 position for Best Place to Work in New York, besting a who's who of established brands and household names.

在最近由 Comparably 進行的調查中，Peloton 在全球 100 強品牌排行榜中名列第一，並再次在紐約最佳工作場所排名第一，擊敗知名品牌和家喻戶曉的名人錄。

For me, this is particularly gratifying recognition as these rankings point to both our member experience and the internal culture we've been building at Peloton since day 1.

對我來說，這是特別令人欣慰的認可，因為這些排名表明了我們的會員體驗和我們從第一天開始就在 Peloton 建立的內部文化。

By definition, powerful brands are recognized for their extraordinary product and service experiences.

根據定義，強大的品牌因其非凡的產品和服務體驗而受到認可。

By always putting members first and obsessing over their experience, we're building the most powerful brand in fitness and potentially one of the most powerful brands in any category.

通過始終將會員放在首位並關注他們的體驗，我們正在打造健身領域最強大的品牌，並有可能成為任何類別中最強大的品牌之一。

It explains why we're so focused on Net Promoter Scores, by the way.

順便說一下，它解釋了為什麼我們如此關注淨推薦值。

And when we couple our dedication to member experiences with a commitment to expanding accessibility, we see an opportunity to extend our leadership position for years and years to come.

當我們將對會員體驗的奉獻與對擴大可訪問性的承諾結合起來時，我們看到了在未來多年擴大我們的領導地位的機會。

Peloton being named the Best Place to Work in New York is personally rewarding as a leader and a co-founder, but it's also a big strategic advantage as you can imagine.

作為領導者和聯合創始人，Peloton 被評為紐約最佳工作場所，這對他個人來說是值得的，但正如您可以想像的那樣，這也是一個巨大的戰略優勢。

Recruiting and retaining the best talent is the foundation of every great technology business and separates the truly great companies from the good ones.

招聘和留住最優秀的人才是每一個偉大的技術企業的基礎，也是真正偉大的公司與優秀公司的區別。

Lastly, and most importantly, I want to thank the entire Peloton team around the world for their hard work in a tough year of rapidly scaling while managing through a global pandemic.

最後，也是最重要的是，我要感謝世界各地的整個 Peloton 團隊在艱難的一年中的辛勤工作，他們在迅速擴大規模的同時應對了全球大流行病。

I also want to thank our members for allowing us to play a significant role in their health and wellness journeys.

我還要感謝我們的會員讓我們在他們的健康之旅中發揮重要作用。

As you know, we don't take this opportunity nor responsibility lightly.

如您所知，我們不會掉以輕心，也不會掉以輕心。

We care deeply about every one of you.

我們非常關心你們每一個人。

And with that, we're going to sign off for the night.

就這樣，我們將在晚上結束。

Thank you all for joining.

謝謝大家的加入。

We'll speak to you next quarter.

我們將在下個季度與您交談。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連接。