派樂騰 (PTON) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Peloton's Fiscal First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference may be recorded. (Operator Instructions)

感謝您的支持，歡迎參加 Peloton 的 2022 財年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議可能會被錄製。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your host, Head of Investor Relations, Peter Stabler. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給您的主持人，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。請繼續。

Good afternoon, and welcome to Peloton's fiscal first quarter conference call. Joining today's call are John Foley, our Co-Founder and CEO; President, William Lynch; and CFO, Jill Woodworth. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

下午好，歡迎參加 Peloton 的第一財季電話會議。加入今天的電話會議的是我們的聯合創始人兼首席執行官 John Foley；總裁，威廉·林奇；和首席財務官吉爾伍德沃思。我們對您的問題的評論和答复僅反映了管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的陳述，這些陳述是聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩個文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給約翰。

Thank you, Peter. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. Before we recap the quarter and discuss our forecast, I want to spend a moment providing some context for our updated outlook. As you all well know, stay at home and work from home orders, coupled with commercial gym closures, drove massive awareness gains for Connected Fitness, accelerating an adoption curve that was already well underway. Given the unprecedented circumstances presented by the global pandemic, we said last quarter that modeling the exit from COVID and the massive growth we saw in fiscal 2021 would be a challenging task, and that has certainly proven to be true. With reduced backlogs, our visibility into our future performance has become more limited. From forecasting consumer demand to accurately predicting logistics costs, our teams have never seen a more complex operating environment in which to guide our expected results this year.

謝謝你，彼得。大家下午好。感謝您今天加入我們。在我們回顧本季度並討論我們的預測之前，我想花一點時間為我們更新的展望提供一些背景信息。眾所周知，待在家裡並在家工作，再加上商業健身房的關閉，推動了 Connected Fitness 的巨大知名度提高，加速了已經在進行中的採用曲線。鑑於全球大流行帶來的前所未有的情況，我們在上個季度表示，對 COVID 的退出和我們在 2021 財年看到的大規模增長進行建模將是一項具有挑戰性的任務，而且事實證明這是正確的。隨著積壓工作的減少，我們對未來業績的了解變得更加有限。從預測消費者需求到準確預測物流成本，我們的團隊從未見過如此復雜的運營環境來指導我們今年的預期結果。

As noted in our shareholder letter, we are reducing our guidance for fiscal year '22. We have returned to presenting ranges given the uncertainty. The swift timing of these changes since giving our initial guidance in August, is not lost on us. As we prepared our previous guidance, we had to make assumptions about consumer behavior coming out of COVID, the impact of our original bike price reduction and the cost structure within our Connected Fitness segment, all against the backdrop of a global supply chain crisis.

正如我們在股東信中指出的那樣，我們正在減少對 '22 財年的指導。鑑於不確定性，我們已經回到了展示範圍。自從我們在 8 月份給出初步指導以來，這些變化的迅速時機並沒有讓我們迷失。在我們準備之前的指導時，我們必須在全球供應鏈危機的背景下對 COVID 帶來的消費者行為、我們最初的自行車降價的影響以及我們互聯健身部門的成本結構做出假設。

While we have had to manage carefully around many issues such as component shortages, elevated freight costs and increased transportation costs, I'm proud of our team who has moved mountains to ensure that we have ample inventory across our portfolio ahead of the holiday season. While we continue to see a nearly 100% 2-year growth CAGR in both traffic and unit sales in Q1 and into Q2, we've seen a greater-than-anticipated taper of our website traffic levels over the past 2 months and a slower-than-expected pickup in retail showroom traffic, both of which are important inputs into our forward-looking demand model.

雖然我們不得不小心處理許多問題，例如組件短缺、運費上漲和運輸成本增加，但我為我們的團隊感到自豪，他們已經搬了山，以確保我們在假期前的產品組合中擁有充足的庫存。雖然我們繼續看到第一季度和第二季度的流量和單位銷售額的 2 年復合年增長率接近 100%，但我們看到過去 2 個月我們的網站流量水平下降幅度超過預期，而且速度放緩-零售展廳客流量超預期回升，這兩者都是我們前瞻性需求模型的重要投入。

This reduction in traffic has added increased near-term uncertainty into our forecast. As expected, our original bike price reduction created a step shift in demand, helping to broaden our demographic mix and expand our market opportunity. The price move did significantly improve our e-commerce conversion rate, in fact, greater than we expected, but not enough to offset the year-over-year declines we have seen in overall traffic. We saw a positive and sustained reception to the price moves in our international markets. This was anticipated as our international consumers have proven to be more price-sensitive.

客流量的減少增加了我們預測的近期不確定性。正如預期的那樣，我們最初的自行車降價創造了需求的階梯式轉變，有助於擴大我們的人口結構並擴大我們的市場機會。價格變動確實顯著提高了我們的電子商務轉化率，事實上，高於我們的預期，但不足以抵消我們看到的整體流量同比下降。我們看到國際市場的價格走勢受到積極和持續的歡迎。這是預料之中的，因為我們的國際消費者已被證明對價格更加敏感。

To maintain a premium end-to-end member experience, we made significant investments over the past year to scale manufacturing, logistics and operations. Overall, we believe we met the challenge, but there's no doubt that in some cases, we overcorrected. That, combined with the reduction to our demand picture and higher-than-expected costs across product, transportation and delivery are causing a near-term compression of our hardware margins. However, we are taking significant corrective actions to improve our profitability outlook, which will impact the back half of fiscal year '22 and into fiscal year '23.

為了保持優質的端到端會員體驗，我們在過去一年中進行了大量投資以擴大製造、物流和運營規模。總的來說，我們相信我們迎接了挑戰，但毫無疑問，在某些情況下，我們過度糾正了。再加上我們的需求減少以及產品、運輸和交付成本高於預期，導致我們的硬件利潤率在短期內受到壓縮。然而，我們正在採取重大糾正措施來改善我們的盈利前景，這將影響到 '22 財年的後半期和 '23 財年。

While it's important for us to optimize fixed cost across the company, we won't compromise our Net Promoter Score position in the process. We remain committed to our goal of winning Connected Fitness, and our long-term thesis of fitness moving into the home is unchanged. We track our estimated market share closely. And while sales are currently not meeting our previous forecast, third-party data suggests that we continue to build on our leading share of the Connected Fitness market. We firmly believe at-home fitness customers will want one subscription for a comprehensive home fitness platform, and we are determined to be that one subscription.

雖然優化整個公司的固定成本對我們很重要，但我們不會在此過程中損害我們的淨推薦值。我們仍然致力於贏得 Connected Fitness 的目標，我們將健身搬入家庭的長期理念沒有改變。我們密切跟踪我們估計的市場份額。雖然目前銷售額未達到我們之前的預測，但第三方數據表明我們將繼續鞏固我們在互聯健身市場的領先份額。我們堅信，在家健身的客戶會希望訂閱一個綜合性的家庭健身平台，我們決心成為那個訂閱者。

Moving on to thoughts on the quarter. On August 30, we officially launched our new lower price Tread in the U.S. and resumed sales in the U.K. and Canada. On September 28, we launched sales in Germany, and we look forward to bringing Tread to Australia in the not-too-distant future. We have high expectations for our Tread. Our Tread platform provides members with both running and full body workouts taught by a great roster of instructors. We have reimagined the Tread experience in the same way we fundamentally improved the stationary bike experience with the launch of our original Peloton Bike.

繼續思考本季度。 8 月 30 日，我們在美國正式推出了新的低價 Tread，並在英國和加拿大恢復了銷售。 9 月 28 日，我們在德國開始銷售，我們期待在不久的將來將 Tread 帶到澳大利亞。我們對 Tread 寄予厚望。我們的 Tread 平台為會員提供由眾多教練教授的跑步和全身鍛煉。我們重新構想了 Tread 體驗，就像我們通過推出我們最初的 Peloton Bike 從根本上改善了固定式自行車體驗一樣。

Since its introduction, we have brought millions of people into home fitness through a dynamic ever-changing fitness platform, and our all-new Tread provides that same immersive experience. But it will take some time to educate consumers. That's okay. We're committed to the platform and gained confidence from the high marks the product is receiving from both consumers and the press. Since the launch of our media support in late September, we've seen steady progress in building Tread sales.

自推出以來，我們通過一個不斷變化的動態健身平台將數百萬人帶入了家庭健身，而我們全新的 Tread 提供了同樣的身臨其境的體驗。但教育消費者需要一些時間。沒關係。我們致力於該平台，並從產品從消費者和媒體那裡獲得的高分中獲得信心。自 9 月下旬推出我們的媒體支持以來，我們看到 Tread 銷售取得穩步進展。

Our Tread Net Promoter Scores are very encouraging, with an initial NPS in the U.S. of 89 points. And with our planned investments in content and software, our already great Tread experience will continue to improve. Ask any bike member who joined the platform 3 years ago to compare the experience today versus when they purchased their bike, there's no comparison. And from an investment perspective, as we've said previously, we expect the tread market to be foundational to our long-term growth.

我們的 Tread 淨推薦值非常令人鼓舞，在美國的初始 NPS 為 89 分。隨著我們在內容和軟件方面的計劃投資，我們已經很棒的 Tread 體驗將繼續改善。詢問任何 3 年前加入該平台的自行車會員，將今天的體驗與他們購買自行車時的體驗進行比較，沒有可比性。從投資的角度來看，正如我們之前所說，我們預計胎面市場將成為我們長期增長的基礎。

Turning to our bike portfolio. The original bike price reduction accelerated sales, allowing us to convert more price-sensitive households. While we believe the wider price gap between Bike and Bike+ has resulted in some trade down impact. We're comfortable with that outcome. As we have said, growing household penetration remains our primary objective.

轉向我們的自行車產品組合。原來的自行車降價加速了銷售，讓我們可以轉換更多對價格敏感的家庭。雖然我們認為 Bike 和 Bike+ 之間更大的價格差距導致了一些貿易下滑影響。我們對這個結果感到滿意。正如我們所說，提高家庭滲透率仍然是我們的主要目標。

On the engagement front, we recently passed a significant milestone, over 1 billion classes taken by our members. We're honored to be playing such a positive role in our members' lives and look forward to many billions more. We finished the quarter with 2.49 million Connected Fitness subscriptions, up 87% versus the year-ago period. End of quarter digital subscriptions were 887,000, up 74% versus a year ago, and our global Peloton member community now stands at over 6.2 million. Engagement per Connected Fitness subscription totaled 16.6 workouts per month, declining modestly from Q4 and more significantly when compared to last year's COVID-impacted quarter. On a 2-year basis, engagement was up 42% over the first quarter of 2020.

在參與方面，我們最近通過了一個重要的里程碑，我們的會員參加了超過 10 億次課程。我們很榮幸能夠在我們會員的生活中發揮如此積極的作用，並期待著更多的數十億人。我們在本季度結束時擁有 249 萬個 Connected Fitness 訂閱，比去年同期增長 87%。季度末數字訂閱量為 887,000，比一年前增長 74%，我們的全球 Peloton 成員社區現在超過 620 萬。每個 Connected Fitness 訂閱的參與度總計為每月 16.6 次鍛煉，較第四季度略有下降，與去年受 COVID 影響的季度相比下降幅度更大。在 2 年的基礎上，參與度比 2020 年第一季度增長了 42%。

As we have said, summer months have traditionally seen lower engagement levels, and we expect our first quarter to represent the trough quarter for engagement for the fiscal year, as it has in every non-COVID year in our history. In the quarter, we continued to aggressively invest behind content and new software features for our members. We produced over 2,500 new classes and launched features requested by our members. Examples include subtitles for live classes, redesigned class filters, a reimagined progress tracking feature and structured workout plans to help keep our members on track.

正如我們所說，夏季月份的參與度傳統上較低，我們預計第一季度將代表本財年參與度的低谷季度，就像我們歷史上每個非 COVID 年一樣。在本季度，我們繼續為我們的會員大力投資內容和新軟件功能。我們製作了超過 2,500 個新課程並推出了會員要求的功能。示例包括直播課程的字幕、重新設計的課程過濾器、重新設計的進度跟踪功能和結構化的鍛煉計劃，以幫助我們的會員保持正軌。

We also welcomed 8 terrific new instructors, bolstering both our New York and London-based teams. Our new instructors will be teaching in English, German and Spanish with a focus on running, Tread boot camp, strength, walking, outdoor and stretching.

我們還迎來了 8 位出色的新講師，為我們在紐約和倫敦的團隊提供支持。我們的新教練將以英語、德語和西班牙語授課，重點是跑步、踏步訓練營、力量、步行、戶外和伸展運動。

Finally, this quarter featured the addition of 60 new running and cycling scenic classes, which were taken over 1 million times in the period. Looking ahead, we're about to enter our busiest time of the year. Our inventories are healthy and our logistics teams are well-equipped for the seasonally strong sales period. We have low expected OTDs across our portfolio as we know timely delivery is greatly appreciated during the holiday and New Year's resolution periods.

最後，本季度新增了60個跑步和自行車景區課程，在此期間被接受超過100萬次。展望未來，我們即將進入一年中最繁忙的時期。我們的庫存健康，我們的物流團隊裝備精良，可以應對季節性強勁的銷售期。我們的投資組合中預期的 OTD 較低，因為我們知道在假期和新年解決期間及時交付非常受歡迎。

Now I'll hand it over to Jill to review our Q1 financial results and updated outlook.

現在我將把它交給 Jill 來審查我們的第一季度財務業績和更新的展望。

Thanks, John. I will start with a review of our first quarter results. In Q1, we generated total revenue of $805 million, representing 6% year-over-year growth and an 88% 2-year CAGR. In terms of revenue drivers, we had lower-than-expected financing penetration, better-than-expected Connected Fitness churn, partially offset by the $11 million adjustment to our return reserve for our Tread recalls. We added 161,000 net Connected Fitness subscriptions in the quarter, bringing our end of quarter Connected Fitness membership base to 2.492 million, up 87% year-on-year.

謝謝，約翰。我將從回顧我們的第一季度業績開始。第一季度，我們的總收入為 8.05 億美元，同比增長 6%，兩年復合年增長率為 88%。在收入驅動因素方面，我們的融資滲透率低於預期，Connected Fitness 流失率高於預期，部分被我們為 Tread 召回而調整的 1100 萬美元的退貨準備金所抵消。我們在本季度增加了 161,000 名 Connected Fitness 淨訂閱，使我們的季度末 Connected Fitness 會員基數達到 249.2 萬，同比增長 87%。

Average net monthly Connected Fitness churn was 0.82%. As a reminder, we disclosed last quarter that we will no longer be offering forward churn guidance but will continue to report this metric. We continue to expect low, industry-leading churn and high engagement, especially as we head into colder weather.

Connected Fitness 月均淨流失率為 0.82%。提醒一下，我們在上個季度披露了我們將不再提供前向流失指導，但將繼續報告這一指標。我們繼續期待行業領先的低流失率和高參與度，尤其是當我們進入寒冷的天氣時。

At the end of Q1, we had over 887,000 app subscribers, representing 74% year-over-year growth, slightly ahead of our internal expectations. For the quarter, we saw modestly better retention than expected, but we're also seeing some challenges related to acquisition efficiencies. As you likely know, there have been some significant changes made by Apple that are leading to some targeting headwinds. Like many other direct-to-consumer marketers, we're seeing some disruptive impact as our teams adjust to the new data landscape.

在第一季度末，我們擁有超過 887,000 名應用訂閱者，同比增長 74%，略高於我們的內部預期。在本季度，我們看到保留率略好於預期，但我們也看到了與收購效率相關的一些挑戰。您可能知道，Apple 進行了一些重大更改，導致一些目標阻力。與許多其他直接面向消費者的營銷人員一樣，隨著我們的團隊適應新的數據環境，我們看到了一些顛覆性影響。

Looking ahead, we remain bullish on our app business and its role as an important lead generation tool for Connected Fitness. Our teams will continue to adjust to the new marketplace reality, and we expect our corporate wellness initiatives to begin to contribute more meaningfully to our app business as the year progresses.

展望未來，我們仍然看好我們的應用程序業務及其作為 Connected Fitness 重要潛在客戶生成工具的作用。我們的團隊將繼續適應新的市場現實，我們預計隨著時間的推移，我們的企業健康計劃將開始為我們的應用業務做出更有意義的貢獻。

Moving to gross margin. Gross margin for the quarter was 32.6%, which came in slightly below our expectations. This was entirely due to our Connected Fitness product segment, which had a gross margin of 12%, below our guidance of 15%. There were 2 primary drivers of our Connected Fitness gross margin shortfall, an increase in our return reserve for our recalled Tread products and some inefficiencies seen in freight out and logistics.

轉向毛利率。本季度毛利率為 32.6%，略低於我們的預期。這完全是由於我們的互聯健身產品部門的毛利率為 12%，低於我們 15% 的指導。我們的 Connected Fitness 毛利率下降有兩個主要驅動因素，我們召回的 Tread 產品的退貨準備金增加，以及貨運和物流方面的一些低效率。

As we mentioned last quarter, forecasting Tread returns has proven to be very challenging. While we saw an easing of return activity through late summer, we believe the expiration of our subscription waivers motivated a higher-than-anticipated number of Tread+ owners to initiate returns. Consequently, in the quarter, we increased our reserve to account for this activity.

正如我們上個季度提到的，預測 Tread 回報已被證明是非常具有挑戰性的。雖然我們看到夏末的退貨活動有所緩解，但我們認為，我們的訂閱豁免到期促使更多的 Tread+ 所有者發起退貨。因此，在本季度，我們增加了儲備以應對這一活動。

As a reminder, the impact of recall-related returns is added back to our adjusted EBITDA, but is fully reflected on the revenue and gross profit line. With this increase in our reserve, we are attempting to capture the entirety of expected returns from now until the end of the recall-related return window, which lasts for another 12 months. But there is the possibility that future adjustments will be needed.

提醒一下，召回相關退貨的影響被添加回我們調整後的 EBITDA，但完全反映在收入和毛利潤線上。隨著我們儲備金的增加，我們正試圖從現在到與召回相關的退貨窗口結束時捕獲全部預期回報，該窗口將持續另外 12 個月。但未來可能需要進行調整。

Excluding the impact of the unexpected increase to our return reserve, our Connected Fitness margin in Q1 would have been 14% and overall gross margin would have been 33.6%. On the logistics front, we saw some additional inefficiencies associated with middle and last mile delivery costs and Precor-related freight-in expenses. These negative impacts were partially offset by lower-than-anticipated Bike financing rates and Bike-related reserve adjustments.

排除我們的回報儲備意外增加的影響，我們第一季度的 Connected Fitness 利潤率為 14%，整體毛利率為 33.6%。在物流方面，我們看到了與中間和最後一英里交付成本以及 Precor 相關的運費相關的一些額外的低效率。這些負面影響被低於預期的自行車融資利率和與自行車相關的準備金調整部分抵消。

Subscription gross margin was 66.7% and subscription contribution margin was 69.6%, ahead of expectations as we continue to leverage fixed costs associated with content production. As a reminder, quarter-to-quarter, we continue to see some variability, but we now expect to reach our subscription contribution margin target of 70% by Q4 of this year.

訂閱毛利率為 66.7%，訂閱貢獻率為 69.6%，超出預期，因為我們繼續利用與內容製作相關的固定成本。提醒一下，按季度來看，我們繼續看到一些變化，但我們現在預計到今年第四季度將達到 70% 的訂閱貢獻率目標。

Turning to operating expenses. Sales and marketing expense was 35.3% of total revenue versus the prior year period of 15.1%. As we explained last quarter, this deleverage was planned as we ramped marketing. Looking ahead, we expect to realize substantial sequential leverage against sales and marketing expense as the year progresses. G&A expense was 29.8% of total revenue versus 14.3% in the year prior. We invested over the last 12 months to scale operations, including significant investments in team, systems and member support. While this led to a series of significant sequential step-up in G&A spending over the last year, nearly all of this investment is completed. Looking ahead, we expect a sequential increase in G&A spend in Q2, but anticipate our Q1 spending level to represent a reasonable approximation of quarterly spend for the second half of the year.

轉向運營費用。銷售和營銷費用佔總收入的 35.3%，而去年同期為 15.1%。正如我們上個季度所解釋的那樣，這種去槓桿化是在我們加大營銷力度時計劃的。展望未來，隨著時間的推移，我們預計將實現對銷售和營銷費用的顯著連續槓桿作用。 G&A 費用佔總收入的 29.8%，而去年同期為 14.3%。我們在過去 12 個月中進行了投資以擴大運營規模，包括對團隊、系統和成員支持的重大投資。雖然這導致去年 G&A 支出出現了一系列顯著的連續增長，但幾乎所有這些投資都已完成。展望未來，我們預計第二季度的 G&A 支出將連續增加，但預計我們的第一季度支出水平將代表下半年季度支出的合理近似值。

R&D expense was 12.1% of total revenue versus 4.8% in the year ago period. The year-over-year deleverage reflects the onboarding of several acqui-hires and the R&D team from Precor. As with G&A, we expect roughly flat quarterly spend for the remainder of the fiscal year.

研發費用佔總收入的 12.1%，而去年同期為 4.8%。同比下降反映了 Precor 的幾名收購人員和研發團隊的入職。與 G&A 一樣，我們預計本財年剩餘時間的季度支出大致持平。

Our Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss was better than expected at $233.7 million. Net loss for Q1 was $376 million or a loss of $1.25 per basic and diluted share. We ended the quarter with $924 million of cash and marketable securities and have additional liquidity in the form of an untapped $285 million credit facility.

我們第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2.337 億美元，好於預期。第一季度的淨虧損為 3.76 億美元，即每股基本股和稀釋股虧損 1.25 美元。我們在本季度末擁有 9.24 億美元的現金和有價證券，並以未開發的 2.85 億美元信貸額度的形式擁有額外的流動性。

Now on to our outlook. We are reintroducing ranges for our guidance. As John alluded to earlier, the overall consumer and logistics environments have been challenging to predict coming out of COVID, and we are providing guidance just a few weeks ahead of our busiest sales season. For fiscal '22, we are now forecasting ending Connected Fitness subscriptions of 3.35 million to 3.45 million, implying approximately 1.1 million net adds and representing 46% year-over-year growth and a 77% 2-year CAGR for ending subs at the midpoint. This equates to roughly a 6% reduction in our forecasted end of year Connected Fitness subscriptions at the midpoint. Our revised full year revenue forecast is $4.4 billion to $4.8 billion, representing 14% year-over-year growth and a 59% 2-year CAGR at the midpoint of the range.

現在談談我們的展望。我們正在重新引入範圍以供我們指導。正如約翰早些時候提到的那樣，整體消費者和物流環境一直難以預測 COVID 的到來，我們在最繁忙的銷售季節前幾週提供指導。對於 22 財年，我們現在預測 Connected Fitness 的訂閱量將在 335 萬至 345 萬之間，這意味著大約 110 萬的淨增加量，同比增長 46%，在中點結束訂閱的 2 年復合年增長率為 77% .這相當於我們預測的年末 Connected Fitness 訂閱量在中點減少了大約 6%。我們修訂後的全年收入預測為 44 億至 48 億美元，同比增長 14%，2 年復合年增長率為 59%，處於該區間的中點。

For Q2, we expect ending Connected Fitness subscriptions of 2.80 million to 2.85 million, implying 333,000 net adds and representing 69% year-over-year growth and nearly 100% 2-year CAGR for ending subs at the midpoint. For Q2, we expect revenue of $1.1 to $1.2 billion, representing 8% year-over-year growth and a 57% 2-year CAGR at the midpoint.

對於第二季度，我們預計結束的 Connected Fitness 訂閱量為 280 萬至 285 萬，這意味著淨增加 333,000 人，同比增長 69%，中期結束訂閱的 2 年復合年增長率接近 100%。對於第二季度，我們預計收入為 1.1 至 12 億美元，同比增長 8%，中點 2 年復合年增長率為 57%。

Our revised guidance reflects a reduction in our expected Bike portfolio sales and Tread sales versus our original forecast, given traffic trends over the past several weeks. It also contemplates a greater-than-expected mix of original Bike versus Bike+ since the price drop and, lastly, headwinds in our commercial or Precor business.

鑑於過去幾週的交通趨勢，我們修訂後的指導反映了我們預期的自行車組合銷售和胎面銷售與我們最初的預測相比有所下降。它還考慮到原始 Bike 與 Bike+ 的組合超出預期，因為價格下跌，最後是我們的商業或 Precor 業務的逆風。

Traffic and conversion are the key inputs in our demand forecast. Many of the modeling assumptions that predict e-commerce traffic that we made in August were too optimistic. Our baseline traffic forecast reflected our unchanged view of the growing consumer interest in Connected Fitness, our growing market share in the category, our leading brand awareness and expected increased word-of-mouth. However, it is clear that we underestimated the reopening impact on our company and the overall industry.

流量和轉化是我們需求預測的關鍵輸入。我們在 8 月份做出的許多預測電子商務流量的建模假設都過於樂觀。我們的基線流量預測反映了我們對消費者對互聯健身日益增長的興趣、我們在該類別中不斷增長的市場份額、我們領先的品牌知名度和預期增加的口碑的看法不變。但是，很明顯，我們低估了重新開放對我們公司和整個行業的影響。

Importantly, we also expected the price drop to further drive a traffic uplift and increased conversion. While the price drop led to conversion rates that exceeded our forecast, overall traffic has not met our initial expectations. We have also seen a richer than anticipated mix of Bike sales versus Bike+, further impacting both revenue and our gross margin expectations. As we've said previously, we are agnostic to which entry point members choose, given that the LTV of our Connected Fitness subscriptions remains highly attractive.

重要的是，我們還預計價格下跌將進一步推動流量提升和轉化率增加。雖然價格下跌導致轉化率超出我們的預測，但整體流量並未達到我們最初的預期。我們還看到 Bike + 的銷售組合比預期更豐富，進一步影響了收入和我們的毛利率預期。正如我們之前所說，鑑於我們的 Connected Fitness 訂閱的 LTV 仍然極具吸引力，我們不知道會員選擇哪個入口點。

Moving on to Tread. We started selling our all-new Tread on August 30 and began our media support on September 27. We noted on our last earnings call that the rollout of Tread would be slow to start in order to ensure that our members are receiving a positive delivery experience, and we take the time to reposition inventory to match demand by region. Since launching media for Tread, we have seen a progressive increase in Tread sales and remain bullish on the category and our ability to grow from our currently low product awareness.

繼續前進。我們於 8 月 30 日開始銷售全新的 Tread，並於 9 月 27 日開始提供媒體支持。我們在上次財報電話會議上指出，Tread 的推出將緩慢啟動，以確保我們的會員獲得積極的交付體驗，並且我們花時間重新定位庫存以匹配各地區的需求。自為 Tread 推出媒體以來，我們看到 Tread 銷量逐漸增長，並且仍然看好該類別以及我們從目前低產品意識中成長的能力。

Our primary task today is educating the consumer about our all-new Tread and how it differs from other treadmills on the market. However, much like our Bike portfolio, our revised traffic estimates will also impact our Tread forecast for the balance of the year.

我們今天的首要任務是讓消費者了解我們全新的 Tread 以及它與市場上其他跑步機的不同之處。然而，就像我們的自行車投資組合一樣，我們修改後的交通量估計也將影響我們對今年剩餘時間的胎面預測。

Lastly, we have reduced expectations for our commercial channel or legacy Precor business, given both supply and demand dynamics. While the commercial gym industry has made significant gains as the country reopened, overall visits remain below pre-COVID levels, leading operators across some commercial segments to delay capital investments in new equipment. However, more importantly, sourcing certain component parts has become materially more challenging since we gave our guidance in August. This has led to supply constraints in some Precor products, leaving us unable to fulfill some of our commercial demand.

最後，鑑於供需動態，我們降低了對商業渠道或傳統 Precor 業務的期望。儘管隨著該國重新開放，商業健身房行業取得了重大進展，但總體訪問量仍低於 COVID 之前的水平，導致一些商業領域的運營商推遲對新設備的資本投資。然而，更重要的是，自我們在 8 月份給出指導以來，採購某些零部件變得更具挑戰性。這導致一些 Precor 產品的供應受限，使我們無法滿足我們的一些商業需求。

Moving on to margin. The reduction to our demand outlook is creating margin compression in our Connected Fitness segment as we have a significant amount of fixed costs associated with our supply chain, particularly within middle and last mile logistics. Migrating from quarterly sequential growth during COVID, back to our pre-COVID seasonality has proven challenging. However, we plan to optimize the mix of our own delivery and third-party networks to help drive savings in the coming quarters.

繼續邊緣。由於我們的供應鏈有大量固定成本，特別是在中間和最後一英里的物流中，我們需求前景的減少正在對我們的互聯健身部門造成利潤壓縮。從 COVID 期間的季度連續增長，回到我們之前的 COVID 季節性已證明具有挑戰性。但是，我們計劃優化我們自己的交付和第三方網絡的組合，以幫助在未來幾個季度節省開支。

On the variable cost side, hardware cost efficiencies and ocean savings that we expected in Q2 won't start to materialize until the second half of the year, given the lower-than-expected demand profile for Q2. On freight, specifically, we are locking in better long-dated rates.

在可變成本方面，鑑於第二季度的需求低於預期，我們預計第二季度的硬件成本效率和海洋節約要到下半年才能開始實現。具體而言，在貨運方面，我們鎖定了更好的長期費率。

We also intend to shift towards in-sourced unit production at Tonic and evaluate other strategies that will benefit our cost structure in future quarters. Also, within our commercial business, we are seeing incremental pressure and additional sourcing constraints that will weigh on our margins for the remainder of the year.

我們還打算在 Tonic 轉向內購單位生產，並評估其他有利於我們未來幾個季度成本結構的策略。此外，在我們的商業業務中，我們看到了增量壓力和額外的採購限制，這將影響我們今年剩餘時間的利潤率。

In light of the current cost increases in units, freight and delivery, and while we expect some of this pressure to abate in the back half of the year, we are evaluating ways to improve our fixed cost efficiency and move to a more variable cost structure, in addition to other strategies to better balance growth, profitability and member experience. All in, we now expect a Connected Fitness product gross margin of 7% in Q2 and 16% for fiscal year 2022.

鑑於當前單位、運費和交付成本的增加，雖然我們預計這種壓力在今年下半年會有所緩解，但我們正在評估提高固定成本效率並轉向更具可變性的成本結構的方法，以及其他更好地平衡增長、盈利能力和會員體驗的策略。總而言之，我們現在預計第二季度 Connected Fitness 產品的毛利率為 7%，2022 財年為 16%。

As we've said before, we are more focused on Connected Fitness gross profit dollars than margin percentage, with the goal of using those gross profit dollars to offset our sales and marketing expense. This is an extraordinary year where this goal is difficult to achieve, but we are committed to making material improvements to our cost structure that will help us get back towards being net CAC neutral in fiscal 2023.

正如我們之前所說，我們更關注 Connected Fitness 毛利潤美元而不是利潤率百分比，目標是使用這些毛利潤美元來抵消我們的銷售和營銷費用。這是難以實現這一目標的非凡一年，但我們致力於對成本結構進行重大改進，這將幫助我們在 2023 財年重新實現 CAC 淨中性。

For our subscription business, we expect a contribution margin of 69% in Q2 and 70% for the full year, with the improvement to last year, reflecting continued fixed cost leverage and some benefit from identified cost savings. Rolling up our segments, we now expect total company gross margin of 24% in Q2 and 32% for fiscal 2022.

對於我們的訂閱業務，我們預計第二季度的貢獻率為 69%，全年為 70%，與去年相比有所改善，反映了持續的固定成本槓桿和已確定的成本節約帶來的一些好處。匯總我們的細分市場，我們現在預計第二季度公司總毛利率為 24%，2022 財年為 32%。

Turning to OpEx. In response to our revised sales and margin outlook for fiscal 2022, we have identified material savings across our operating expenses, though some of these actions may take a quarter or 2 to show improvement. Some of these identified areas of savings include: making significant adjustments to our hiring plans across the company, optimizing marketing spend and limiting showroom development, identifying areas of efficiency, improvement and member support and streamlining our product development teams while maintaining a focus on new products and expanding software features.

轉向運營支出。為響應我們修訂後的 2022 財年銷售和利潤率展望，我們已經確定了運營費用的實質性節省，儘管其中一些行動可能需要一到兩個季度才能顯示出改善。其中一些已確定的節省領域包括：對整個公司的招聘計劃進行重大調整，優化營銷支出並限制展廳開發，確定效率、改進和會員支持領域，以及精簡我們的產品開發團隊，同時保持對新產品的關注和擴展軟件功能。

Inclusive of the headwinds in COGS and planned cost efficiency initiatives, our current estimate of adjusted EBITDA loss for Q2 is between $325 million and $350 million. Our revised outlook for full year fiscal '22 is a loss of $425 million to $475 million on an adjusted EBITDA basis. Despite these near-term headwinds and our reduced revenue outlook, we continue to expect to be adjusted EBITDA profitable in the back half of fiscal 2022 and for the full fiscal year 2023.

包括 COGS 的不利因素和計劃的成本效率舉措，我們目前對第二季度調整後 EBITDA 損失的估計在 3.25 億美元至 3.5 億美元之間。在調整後的 EBITDA 基礎上，我們對 22 財年全年的修訂前景為虧損 4.25 億美元至 4.75 億美元。儘管存在這些近期不利因素並且我們降低了收入前景，但我們繼續預計在 2022 財年下半年和 2023 財年全年調整後的 EBITDA 將實現盈利。

We're making the necessary adjustments to keep us on our path to profitability, and our long-term view of our opportunity is unchanged. We have confidence in our Bike portfolio. We're seeing growing momentum behind our all-new lower-priced Tread, and we are optimistic regarding new products in our pipeline, the commercial and corporate wellness opportunities and continued international growth.

我們正在進行必要的調整，以保持我們的盈利之路，我們對機會的長期看法沒有改變。我們對我們的自行車產品組合充滿信心。我們看到我們全新低價 Tread 背後的增長勢頭，我們對我們管道中的新產品、商業和企業健康機會以及持續的國際增長持樂觀態度。

Turning to CapEx. We are evaluating ways to optimize our U.S. manufacturing expansion and costs, but continue to believe that this is the right long-term move, especially in light of the supply chain challenges we are facing today with freight and delivery costs, needed supply chain flexibility and the benefit that will come from stateside expertise in manufacturing. As we look to manage our costs, we now expect approximately $400 million of CapEx spend through the balance of fiscal 2022. While the next several months present a forecasting challenge in our business, we have many levers to control our costs and will implement the appropriate strategies to support our continued growth in our member base, revenue and path to profitability.

轉向資本支出。我們正在評估優化美國製造業擴張和成本的方法，但仍然認為這是正確的長期舉措，特別是考慮到我們今天面臨的貨運和交付成本、所需的供應鏈靈活性和來自美國製造業專業知識的好處。由於我們希望管理我們的成本，我們現在預計到 2022 財年剩餘的資本支出支出約為 4 億美元。雖然未來幾個月對我們的業務提出了預測挑戰，但我們有很多槓桿來控制我們的成本，並將實施適當的支持我們會員基礎、收入和盈利途徑持續增長的戰略。

I will now hand it back to John.

我現在把它還給約翰。

Thanks, Jill. As you all know, we've been managing through an unprecedented 19 months since COVID began, going from extreme demand to extreme supply shocks. And coming out of COVID, consumer behavior and supply chain inputs have been very challenging to predict in the short term, as clearly evidenced by our new outlook. But please note that the entire Peloton management team is focused on making the best decisions for the long-term health of our business despite the challenges we are currently facing.

謝謝，吉爾。眾所周知，自 COVID 開始以來，我們經歷了前所未有的 19 個月，從極端需求到極端供應衝擊。新冠疫情過後，消費者行為和供應鏈投入在短期內很難預測，我們的新展望清楚地證明了這一點。但請注意，儘管我們目前面臨挑戰，但整個 Peloton 管理團隊都專注於為我們業務的長期健康做出最佳決策。

We know the positive impact we are having on our members' lives. And while our growth is not what we had expected just a few short months ago, we are extending our lead in home fitness cardio and becoming a leader in strength. We make the best, most immersive and interactive home fitness products available, and we have more on the way in the coming weeks and months. We will come out of the other side of this uncertain operating environment a much stronger and more nimble company. We will be vigilant in managing our cost structure for both growth and profitability.

我們知道我們對會員生活的積極影響。雖然我們的增長不是我們在短短幾個月前所預期的，但我們正在擴大我們在家庭健身有氧運動方面的領先地位，並成為力量方面的領導者。我們提供最好的、最具沉浸感和互動性的家庭健身產品，並且在未來幾周和幾個月內我們還會推出更多產品。我們將從這個不確定的經營環境的另一邊走出來，成為一家更強大、更靈活的公司。我們將在管理成本結構以實現增長和盈利方面保持警惕。

In conclusion, I want to let you know that managing this business is incredibly personal to me and the entire team here at Peloton. As one of the founders and the biggest individual shareholder, I can't tell you how much we care about Peloton, and we want every piece of it to be beautiful, including the financial model and performance. I am incredibly proud of the vision that we have laid out, and I'm energized by the clear path to get there. Nothing is in our way. We see exactly what needs to be done, and we are going to do it: continued growth, innovative new products, smart performance marketing, improved hardware margins, rightsized OpEx and a relentless focus on the value that our members receive from their Peloton membership. All of this is within our control. We are operators and leaders. We love what we do, and we have never been more excited about our future than we are today.

總之，我想讓你知道，管理這項業務對我和 Peloton 的整個團隊來說是非常私人的。作為創始人之一和最大的個人股東，我無法告訴你我們對 Peloton 的關心程度，我們希望它的每一部分都是美麗的，包括財務模型和業績。我為我們制定的願景感到無比自豪，我為實現目標的清晰道路而充滿活力。沒有什麼是我們的方式。我們確切地看到了需要做的事情，並且我們將這樣做：持續增長、創新的新產品、智能績效營銷、提高硬件利潤率、適當的運營支出以及對我們的會員從 Peloton 會員資格中獲得的價值的不懈關注。這一切都在我們的掌控之中。我們是運營商和領導者。我們熱愛我們所做的事情，我們從未像今天這樣對我們的未來感到興奮。

With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for questions.

有了這個，我會把它交給接線員提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

I have 2. First, just hoping you could help us understand is how much of your reduced forecast is due to Bike versus Tread, if there's some more color that you can add there. And then second, I think just in terms of balance sheet and cash flow. You've burned about $650 million in cash in 1Q and obviously looking at further EBITDA losses ahead. So with $924 million in cash on the balance sheet, just curious how much cash you're comfortable operating the business with going forward.

我有 2 個。首先，希望您能幫助我們了解您的預測減少有多少是由於 Bike 與 Tread 的關係，如果您可以在那裡添加更多顏色的話。其次，我認為就資產負債表和現金流而言。您在第一季度已經燒掉了大約 6.5 億美元的現金，並且顯然正在考慮進一步的 EBITDA 損失。因此，在資產負債表上有 9.24 億美元現金的情況下，只是想知道您對未來經營業務有多少現金感到滿意。

Yes. Doug, it's Jill. Thanks for your questions. I think I'll just answer your second question first, and I think that's a little bit of a shorter answer than the first. I think just cutting to the chase, we don't see the need for any additional capital raise based on our current outlook. As we mentioned, we're taking significant steps to adjust our expenses across COGS and OpEx with this revised revenue guidance, then we have a lot of levers to pull.

是的。道格，我是吉爾。感謝您的提問。我想我會先回答你的第二個問題，我認為這比第一個問題要簡短一些。我認為只是切入正題，根據我們目前的前景，我們認為沒有必要進行任何額外的融資。正如我們所提到的，我們正在採取重大措施，通過修訂後的收入指導來調整我們在 COGS 和 OpEx 的費用，然後我們有很多槓桿可以拉動。

In addition, what we're also going to do is reevaluate the cadence of some of the capital investments that we're making, inclusive of POP. And while we know that POP is a decades-long, right-term strategic move for us, there's definitely ways for us to find ways to make that a more economical spend over the next couple of years.

此外，我們還將重新評估我們正在進行的一些資本投資的節奏，包括 POP。雖然我們知道 POP 對我們來說是一項長達數十年的正確戰略舉措，但我們肯定有辦法在接下來的幾年裡找到更經濟的支出方式。

In terms of your first question. Certainly, I would say, as we think about the 3 or 4 contributors to the reduction of guide, I would say Bike portfolio is the largest. And that is obviously a decrease in the demand profile. But secondarily, as you know, with the mix shift, it is also more heavily weighted towards the original Bike, right, or the lower-priced Bikes than Bike+. And so that does have revenue implications and EBITDA implications and effectively, Connected Fitness gross margin implications relative to what we thought.

關於你的第一個問題。當然，我會說，當我們考慮減少指南的 3 或 4 個貢獻者時，我會說自行車產品組合是最大的。這顯然是需求狀況的下降。但其次，如您所知，隨著混音的轉變，它也更偏向於原始自行車，或者比 Bike+ 更便宜的自行車。因此，相對於我們的想法，這確實對收入和 EBITDA 產生了影響，並且有效地影響了 Connected Fitness 毛利率。

And just giving you a little bit more detail there. As you know, we're agnostic on entry point. But certainly, before we did the drop in original Bike, we were seeing about a 50-50 mix. That expanded a lot. After we dropped the price, it's come down a little bit, but call it, more like 3 quarters original Bikes. So that's also contributing. But again, just remember, we're agnostic to entry point, and that has no impact on sub growth.

只是給你更多的細節。如您所知，我們對入口點是不可知的。但可以肯定的是，在我們放棄原始自行車之前，我們看到了大約 50-50 的混合。這擴大了很多。在我們降價後，它降了一點，但稱之為，更像是 3 Quarter 原裝 Bikes。所以這也是有貢獻的。但同樣，請記住，我們不知道切入點，這對子增長沒有影響。

And then Tread, we're still in very early days, but obviously, the traffic trends that we're seeing on Bike are the same for Tread. And so we have also taken down Tread. And then the last piece would be Precor or commercial business where we've moderated some of our expectations for the year given some of the headwinds we saw in Q1. So those are the -- that's the order.

然後是 Tread，我們仍處於早期階段，但顯然，我們在 Bike 上看到的交通趨勢與 Tread 相同。所以我們也取消了 Tread。最後一件是 Precor 或商業業務，鑑於我們在第一季度看到的一些不利因素，我們已經緩和了對今年的一些預期。所以這些是 - 這就是順序。

Our next question comes from Edward Yruma of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Edward Yruma。

John, just a bigger picture question on Tread. Obviously, you indicated that results have improved once you kind of deployed more marketing. But just kind of what are the initial consumer feedback on the device? Do you think that people understand that it's a total body fitness solution? Or are they comparing it to kind of conventional treadmills? And then as you look forward, are there other things you can do to help the consumer understand the attributes of the product?

約翰，只是關於 Tread 的一個更大的問題。顯然，您表示一旦您部署了更多營銷，結果就會有所改善。但是，消費者對設備的最初反饋是什麼？你認為人們理解這是一個全身健身解決方案嗎？還是他們將其與傳統的跑步機進行比較？然後，正如您所期待的那樣，您是否可以做其他事情來幫助消費者了解產品的屬性？

Yes. I'm glad you asked. We were very excited about Tread. You heard in our prepared remarks that we have a fantastic 89 Net Promoter Score out of the gate, which is just, off the chart, incredible reception from our members. The press reviews have been coming in. I encourage you to read them. And Gadgets has had a great review this week. So the reception to the product has been fantastic.

是的。我很高興你問。我們對 Tread 感到非常興奮。您在我們準備好的評論中聽說，我們有一個很棒的 89 淨推薦值，這是我們會員的令人難以置信的接待。新聞評論已經進來了。我鼓勵你閱讀它們。本週，Gadgets 得到了很好的評價。所以產品的接受度非常好。

You are pushing on a -- I think that it's a real dynamic that treadmill is being -- having been in the market for decades and decades, there's some -- there's -- we talked about last quarter, there's an asset and a liability with the awareness of what a tread is where you see it and you think it's something to run on. And certainly, it is. Ours is the best tread to run on. But to your point, it's also a portal to a full-body workout, as we call it.

你正在推動——我認為跑步機正在成為一種真正的動力——已經在市場上存在了幾十年和幾十年，有一些——有——我們上個季度談到過，有資產和負債意識到你看到的胎面是什麼，你認為它是可以運行的東西。當然，確實如此。我們是最好的跑步者。但就您而言，它也是我們所說的全身鍛煉的門戶。

And circuit workouts are so popular. If you think about Orangetheory and Bootcamp classes, and then even CrossFit, huge category, huge opportunity. So Tread on the hardware side is huge. And then the content from a circuit training perspective is a fantastic, huge opportunity, huge market and huge consumer demand. And so we do have some education to work through in the coming quarters and coming years.

循環鍛煉非常受歡迎。如果你想想 Orangetheory 和 Bootcamp 課程，然後是 CrossFit，巨大的類別，巨大的機會。所以硬件方面的 Tread 是巨大的。然後從巡迴訓練的角度來看內容是一個奇妙的，巨大的機會，巨大的市場和巨大的消費者需求。因此，我們確實需要在未來幾個季度和未來幾年完成一些教育工作。

It's the same education we went through with the Bike, where people would say, years ago, why do I need a $2,000 stationary bike? And it's like, well, it's not a stationary bike, it's a portal to a fantastic indoor cycling class with the community and the quantified itself and the instructors and the programming and the music and everything that the Peloton Bike brought.

這與我們在自行車上所經歷的教育相同，幾年前人們會說，為什麼我需要一輛 2,000 美元的固定自行車？這就像，好吧，它不是一輛固定自行車，它是一個通往社區和量化自身的精彩室內自行車課程的門戶，還有教練、編程、音樂和 Peloton Bike 帶來的一切。

Similarly, the Tread is so innovative that there is some education, and we're going through that. I will point out, we've only been, call it, 30 days on television, trying to start telling that story. And the trend of sales of Tread has been fantastic. So we're bullish on this year. We're bullish on the coming years. And it's going to be a huge new product line for us. So we're super excited.

同樣，Tread 是如此創新，以至於有一些教育，我們正在經歷。我要指出，我們只是在電視上待了 30 天，試圖開始講述這個故事。 Tread的銷售趨勢非常好。所以我們看好今年。我們看好未來幾年。對我們來說，這將是一條巨大的新產品線。所以我們非常興奮。

William, I don't know whether you wanted to add anything on top of that.

威廉，我不知道你是否想在此基礎上添加任何內容。

No. I'll just add to Ed's question. As evidence of the awareness, John mentioned, we measure awareness of our various products in the brand and track empty measures. And our unaided awareness among the target is only at 11%. And you have to go back to close to 2000, late 2015 to find that kind of awareness on bikes. So we actually view that as a massive opportunity.

不，我只是補充 Ed 的問題。作為認知度的證據，John 提到，我們衡量品牌中各種產品的認知度並跟踪空白措施。而我們在目標中的獨立意識僅為 11%。你必須回到接近 2000 年，也就是 2015 年末，才能在自行車上找到這種意識。所以我們實際上認為這是一個巨大的機會。

Our formula for growth that we've been able to hone on Bike and then as we roll out internationally, it starts with product experience. We deliver the best product experience in Connected Fitness and Tread within 89, as high as what we've seen on Bike. And so when we start from there is the core, we start to build awareness. We build the installed base, to John's point on momentum. We get people talking about it. And we have an expression that our members sell more bikes than we do. We're seeing that word-of-mouth with Tread just start.

我們已經能夠在 Bike 上磨練我們的增長公式，然後隨著我們在國際上的推廣，它從產品體驗開始。我們在 89 內提供 Connected Fitness 和 Tread 方面的最佳產品體驗，與我們在 Bike 上看到的一樣高。因此，當我們從核心開始時，我們就開始建立意識。我們建立了已安裝的基礎，約翰的觀點是勢頭。我們讓人們談論它。我們有一種表達方式，即我們的會員銷售的自行車比我們多。我們看到 Tread 的口碑才剛剛開始。

And we feel like as we climb with these investments in marketing through the holiday, we're really excited about our holiday campaign, which we announced today. We feel very good that Tread is going to be everything we hope, short, mid, long term in terms of growth. We've actually said we think it could be a bigger category than Bike. Everything we're seeing early suggests that could be true, but it's all about getting the awareness up.

我們覺得，隨著我們在假期期間對營銷的這些投資不斷攀升，我們對今天宣布的假期活動感到非常興奮。我們覺得 Tread 將成為我們希望的一切，無論是短期的、中期的還是長期的增長。我們實際上已經說過我們認為它可能是比自行車更大的類別。我們早期看到的一切都表明這可能是真的，但這一切都是為了提高認識。

Our next question comes from Justin Post, Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

Great. I would like -- first, on the acquisition model. First, churn looks good. So part of the model was you acquired people at a gross profit on the equipment that covers your marketing costs. I know that's a little off right now. Do you see that getting back to covering your acquisition costs? Or has there been a change there on the front end? Obviously, the churn doesn't look different on the back end.

偉大的。我想——首先，關於收購模式。首先，流失看起來不錯。因此，模型的一部分是您以毛利從設備上獲得人員，從而覆蓋您的營銷成本。我知道現在有點不對勁。您是否看到重新開始支付您的購置成本？還是前端有變化？顯然，流失在後端看起來並沒有什麼不同。

And then second, Jill, maybe you could talk about the sub guidance. It looks like it's about 300 to 350 in the December quarter adds and then 600 in the back half. Yes, how conservative -- or what kind of factors did you put into that guidance to make sure you really reset at a beatable or achievable bar?

然後第二個，吉爾，也許你可以談談子指導。看起來它在 12 月季度增加了大約 300 到 350，然後在後半部分增加了 600。是的，多麼保守——或者你在指導中加入了什麼樣的因素來確保你真的在一個可擊敗或可實現的標准上重新設置？

Great. Thanks very much for the question. In terms of net CAC, you rightly point out what we've tried to solve for really is a net CAC neutrality, meaning that the gross profit dollars in the units that we sell offset the fully loaded. Remember, it's all fully loaded. It's showrooms, it's merchant fees, it's acquisition marketing, media fully loaded CAC. Certainly, this year, given the pressure we're seeing on COGS, and that is combined with the fact that we've returned to media spend in the near term, net CAC is positive. And so you can sort of think about a ballpark number for the year in the $300 to $400 range.

偉大的。非常感謝這個問題。就淨 CAC 而言，您正確地指出了我們試圖解決的真正是淨 CAC 中立性，這意味著我們銷售的單位的毛利潤美元抵消了滿載。請記住，這一切都已滿載。這是陳列室，是商家費用，是收購營銷，媒體滿載 CAC。當然，今年，鑑於我們在 COGS 上看到的壓力，再加上我們在短期內恢復了媒體支出這一事實，淨 CAC 是積極的。因此，您可以考慮一下 300 至 400 美元範圍內的年度數字。

Certainly, as you know, with the high engagement and high retention we have, we continue to expect, as you alluded to, an incredibly attractive, even with those economic LTV to CAC. But also just keep in mind that we've just begun marketing Tread, right, about a month ago. So we saw a little bit of media spend in Q1. But obviously, we expect to continue to ramp to build product awareness of Tread. So as you know, for a more nascent product where you have lower volumes, you have to build that volume up over time to really get some CAC efficiency. That's also working against us.

當然，如您所知，由於我們擁有的高參與度和高保留率，我們繼續期待，正如您所提到的，即使對於 CAC 而言，這些經濟的 LTV 也具有令人難以置信的吸引力。但也請記住，我們剛剛開始營銷 Tread，對，大約一個月前。所以我們在第一季度看到了一點媒體支出。但顯然，我們預計將繼續提高對 Tread 的產品認知度。因此，如您所知，對於體積較小的新生產品，您必須隨著時間的推移增加該體積才能真正獲得一些 CAC 效率。這也對我們不利。

And then, of course, we talked about in our prepared remarks some of the headwinds we're seeing on COGS, which we believe will get better throughout the year. So certainly a departure from previous years, but I think what you can expect is us to get back towards net CAC neutrality in fiscal '23.

然後，當然，我們在準備好的評論中談到了我們在 COGS 上看到的一些不利因素，我們相信這些不利因素會在全年變得更好。因此，肯定與前幾年有所不同，但我認為您可以期待我們在 23 財年恢復 CAC 網絡中立性。

And in terms of I think what you were asking really is the confidence level in the new guide. Yes, we are confident in the ranges that we've provided for both Q2 and full year. We certainly moderated expectations in the guide, reflecting the traffic trends we saw. And I think that includes across the company, that's like portfolio, that's Tread, that's commercial and also some of the mix shift elements that I had talked about earlier.

就我而言，我認為您真正要問的是新指南中的信心水平。是的，我們對我們為第二季度和全年提供的範圍充滿信心。我們當然降低了指南中的預期，反映了我們看到的交通趨勢。我認為這包括整個公司，這就像投資組合，那是 Tread，那是商業以及我之前談到的一些混合轉換元素。

We've learned a lot, right? We've learned a lot since the price drop around what are the traffic trends, what do conversion trends look like. And so those 2 months were a great learning for us to obviously have a base off of which to give a guide. Going into Q2, as you know, the next 12 weeks, our critical holiday period as well as New Year's resolution.

我們學到了很多，對吧？自從價格下跌以來，我們已經學到了很多關於流量趨勢、轉化趨勢是什麼樣子的信息。所以這兩個月對我們來說是一個很好的學習，顯然有一個可以提供指導的基礎。如您所知，進入第二季度，接下來的 12 週，我們的關鍵假期以及新年決議。

We have a great campaign that launched today. We have inventories in great place, which -- in a great place, which means OTDs. Despite the volumes that we're projecting, we're going to be in a great place. And then, of course, we're looking at sales ramps from previous years, right? Last year is a tough year to use as a model. But we have previous years where we know what the seasonal spikes in our business looks like. And I think we've taken a good approach in looking at previous years combined with this current data since the price drop to arrive at our guide.

我們今天推出了一個很棒的活動。我們有很好的庫存，這-在一個很好的地方，這意味著OTD。儘管我們正在預測數量，但我們將處於一個很好的位置。然後，當然，我們正在研究前幾年的銷售增長，對吧？去年是很難用作模型的一年。但我們在前幾年知道我們業務的季節性高峰是什麼樣的。而且我認為我們已經採取了一種很好的方法來查看前幾年的數據以及自價格下跌以來的當前數據以達到我們的指南。

Your next question comes from Youssef Squali of Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Youssef Squali。

Great. Maybe one question for John and one for William, if I may. So John, engagement remains a key obviously to the Peloton story. This is the second quarter of the client engagement. I think in your prepared remarks, you spoke about Q1 being the trough. Maybe speak to what you're doing proactively to kind of fix that outside of the, basically, the reopening? Is it a content issue? Is it just something else altogether that maybe we didn't talk about?

偉大的。如果可以的話，也許約翰一個問題，威廉一個問題。所以約翰，參與顯然仍然是 Peloton 故事的關鍵。這是客戶參與的第二季度。我認為在您準備好的講話中，您談到第一季度是低谷。也許談談你正在積極做的事情，以便在基本上重新開放之外解決這個問題？是內容問題嗎？是否只是我們沒有談論的其他事情？

And then, William, can you discuss the Precor integration? I think you guys mentioned that it's -- the performance is trailing a bit behind your own expectations, but I care more about the -- how is the integration going? And particularly as you look at their kind of richer product offering, how much of it do you think is susceptible to you guys offering as maybe part of that one subscription model that you, John, are envisioning for the model -- for the business going forward?

然後，William，您能談談 Precor 的整合嗎？我想你們提到它 - 性能有點落後於你自己的預期，但我更關心 - 集成進展如何？特別是當您查看他們提供的更豐富的產品時，您認為其中有多少容易受到你們提供的可能是您約翰為該模型設想的一種訂閱模型的一部分 - 為業務發展向前？

Yes, Youssef. Thank you. William, I'll take this one first to go in order. So yes, with respect to engagement, we always expected the engagement to come down slightly coming out of COVID. I mean it's just the idea that gyms are available, people can get out of their house now. They're not locked down. So we knew that we weren't going to see those crazy elevated COVID engagement numbers forever. But I will say that the 2-year CAGR in the prepared remarks, you might have heard there was over 40% quarter-to-quarter. But to answer your question, there are a whole host of things we're doing, and we are always innovating on content and software features and building.

是的，優素福。謝謝你。威廉，我先按順序拿這個。所以，是的，在參與度方面，我們一直預計 COVID 帶來的參與度會略有下降。我的意思是，健身房可用，人們現在可以走出家門。他們沒有被鎖定。所以我們知道我們不會永遠看到那些瘋狂的高 COVID 參與人數。但我會說準備好的評論中的 2 年復合年增長率，你可能聽說過有超過 40% 的季度環比。但是要回答您的問題，我們正在做很多事情，並且我們一直在內容和軟件功能以及構建方面進行創新。

Every time we launch a new content vertical or content category or a new instructor, we're not retiring other categories. We're just -- it just continues to get more selection, more music genres, more instructor styles. And so what you saw in Q1 is a seasonal impact that we've always had going back 6, 7 years in our business. So some of this you can't fight. I mean in the cold winter months, coming out of New Year's resolutions, people are working out on our platform more than they are in August. And that's just -- there's only so much we can do to shift that.

每次我們推出新的垂直內容或內容類別或新講師時，我們都不會淘汰其他類別。我們只是——它只是繼續獲得更多的選擇、更多的音樂流派、更多的講師風格。因此，您在第一季度看到的是季節性影響，我們的業務一直可以追溯到 6、7 年前。所以有些是你無法抗爭的。我的意思是在寒冷的冬季，由於新年的決心，人們在我們的平台上鍛煉的次數比八月份要多。這只是 - 我們只能做很多事情來改變它。

But I will say, we continue to be dramatically better -- to see dramatically better engagement than any gym or any other Connected Fitness product platform. So we feel good, and we're bullish about the coming quarters and how that's going to play out with engagement.

但我要說的是，我們會繼續顯著提高——看到比任何健身房或任何其他 Connected Fitness 產品平台都顯著提高的參與度。所以我們感覺很好，我們看好未來幾個季度以及參與度將如何發揮作用。

And then, Youssef, on Precor, just reminding everyone why we made that acquisition. First and foremost, it was about building the -- substantially the best Connected Fitness equipment manufacturer in the world. We feel like one of our objectives internally, and we've said this, is to build a structural advantage not only in scale and our ability to build Connected Fitness equipment. I'll remind everyone, this has been a very fragmented market where any one line making tens of thousands of things was remarkable or making millions of things. And that's been challenging to build that capability over time, especially with our growth. But we've done that and then also build a structural cost advantage and quality advantage while we build that scale advantage.

然後，Youssef 在 Precor 上提醒大家我們為什麼要進行收購。首先，它是關於建立——基本上是世界上最好的互聯健身設備製造商。我們認為我們的內部目標之一，我們已經說過，不僅在規模和我們製造互聯健身設備的能力上建立結構優勢。我要提醒大家，這是一個非常分散的市場，任何一家生產數万件產品或生產數百萬件產品的生產線都非常出色。隨著時間的推移，建立這種能力一直是個挑戰，尤其是隨著我們的成長。但是我們已經做到了，然後在我們建立規模優勢的同時還建立了結構性成本優勢和質量優勢。

We feel like to win Connected Fitness, as John noted, you have to be best of breed in that. And Precor's talent, Rob Barker, Greg May, that team is remarkable. We thought it was the best team when combined with ours. And everything we've seen in terms of the integration, some of the work we've done out of the Whitsett -- with the North Carolina facility on domestic manufacturing staging for POP. It has been going remarkably well, and everything we believe and hoped in our diligence has been true there.

正如約翰所說，我們想贏得 Connected Fitness 的冠軍，您必須在這方面成為同類中的佼佼者。而 Precor 的才華橫溢的 Rob Barker、Greg May，這支球隊非常出色。我們認為它與我們的組合是最好的團隊。以及我們在整合方面所看到的一切，我們在 Whitsett 之外所做的一些工作 - 與北卡羅來納州的工廠在國內生產 POP 分期。進展非常順利，我們在勤奮中所相信和希望的一切都在那裡實現。

In terms of channel, as Jill noted, there's softness there. The operators on the key verticals within those channels have been slow, whether it's hospitality or gyms to reopen, and certainly not at the rate that we'd expected. And so, hence, the take down in the guide. But it doesn't daunt us for what's going forward. We think we'll have the best catalog to offer. We do today when we combine Precor grade equipment with ours. And then also, that channel not only is a good business for us as it reemerges, it's also an incredible lead generation channel. Just an example of that is in hospitality, when we have a Peloton bike in a hotel for a year. It sells on average 7 bikes into the home, and that talks to the quality of the experience that it offers.

正如吉爾所指出的，就渠道而言，那裡是柔軟的。這些渠道中關鍵垂直領域的運營商一直很慢，無論是酒店還是健身房重新開放，而且肯定沒有達到我們預期的速度。因此，因此，在指南中刪除。但這並沒有讓我們對未來的事情感到畏懼。我們認為我們將提供最好的目錄。今天，當我們將 Precor 等級設備與我們的設備相結合時，我們就做到了。然後，該渠道不僅重新出現對我們來說是一項很好的業務，而且還是一個令人難以置信的潛在客戶生成渠道。一個例子就是熱情好客，當我們在酒店裡有一輛 Peloton 自行車一年。它平均向家庭銷售 7 輛自行車，這與它提供的體驗質量有關。

When a traveler goes into a Westin and gets on their Peloton in the morning and tries it using our trial, we get that lead capture. And we know, given the strength of the experience, they come home and they buy Peloton. And so it's not only a business that we think has a lot of, financially, has a lot of upside going forward given the catalog. Not only have they been helpful on the manufacturing side, it's very strategic for our at-home business as a trial channel, certainly in hospitality, but also when you think about universities and other verticals.

當一名旅行者早上進入威斯汀酒店並乘坐他們的 Peloton 並使用我們的試用版進行嘗試時，我們就會獲得領先優勢。我們知道，鑑於經驗的力量，他們回家併購買了 Peloton。因此，考慮到目錄，我們認為這不僅是一項在財務上具有很大發展潛力的業務。它們不僅在製造方面有所幫助，而且對於我們的家庭業務作為試用渠道非常具有戰略意義，當然在酒店業，而且當您考慮大學和其他垂直行業時也是如此。

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe I'll ask a 2-parter, if I can. In terms of stimulating demand, what do you see now as sort of the key levers to pull in the business, whether it's mining existing digital subscriptions or how we should think about demand within your control versus demand without of your control?

如果可以的話，也許我會問一個 2-parter。在刺激需求方面，您現在認為什麼是拉動業務的關鍵槓桿，無論是挖掘現有的數字訂閱，還是我們應該如何考慮您控制範圍內的需求與不受您控制的需求？

And along those lines, it seems like what you were saying there with the variable cost structure is we should be almost rethinking about maybe margins longer term. Just want to make sure I heard that messaging clear and what the takeaways were in terms of a more variable mix of cost in the model.

沿著這些思路，您在可變成本結構中所說的似乎是我們幾乎應該重新考慮可能的長期利潤率。只是想確保我清楚地聽到了信息，以及模型中成本的可變性組合有什麼收穫。

Sure. I might just change the order of your question very quickly, just to address what I meant. When you think about during COVID, right, we had several quarters of sequential growth. And what I'm specifically thinking through is we've obviously built a warehouse footprint. We've obviously invested in a lot of field operations, which has been great for our business. It's been great for our members. But I do think going forward, as we think about our growth, right, we're now going to have a more seasonal business again, right?

當然。我可能會很快改變你的問題的順序，只是為了解決我的意思。當您考慮在 COVID 期間，對，我們有幾個季度的連續增長。我具體考慮的是我們顯然已經建立了倉庫足跡。我們顯然已經投資了很多現場運營，這對我們的業務非常有利。這對我們的會員來說很棒。但我確實認為，當我們考慮我們的增長時，我們現在將再次擁有更具季節性的業務，對吧？

And -- so I do think as we think about future growth layered on top of those fixed costs, right, I think we have to get more creative in thinking through how to strategically use 3PLs, right? So -- it's not like we're going to just keep building out our warehouse footprint, we're just going to have to think about. And I think it's -- in addition to that, there's also some opportunity within our member support model.

而且——所以我確實認為，當我們考慮基於這些固定成本的未來增長時，對，我認為我們必須更有創意地思考如何戰略性地使用 3PL，對吧？所以——我們不會繼續擴大我們的倉庫足跡，我們只需要考慮一下。我認為除此之外，我們的會員支持模型中還有一些機會。

So I just think as we have a seasonal business, right? I think one of the ways in which we can gain advantage is looking for ways to have fixed cost leverage and also improve variable cost structure. So I think it's just more to think about coming out of COVID, right, how do we rightsize our business model for the demand that we see in our business and the seasonality in making us have the most robust profitability.

所以我只是認為我們有季節性業務，對吧？我認為我們可以獲得優勢的方法之一是尋找固定成本槓桿並改善可變成本結構的方法。因此，我認為更多的是要考慮從 COVID 中走出來，對，我們如何根據我們在業務中看到的需求以及使我們擁有最強勁盈利能力的季節性來調整我們的業務模式。

And this is William. On the demand side, in terms of leverage, you sort of need to think about it by product. And I'll just start with Tread. We -- I think we've all made the point about how excited and bullish we are on Tread, and it's really about -- it's so unique to start with, a product at 89 NPS, and it's to the credit of our product team led by Tom Cortese and Jen Cotter. We've got the best product and content team on the planet. And it's a market or stream to be able to get the word out, and that's what we have to do.

這是威廉。在需求方面，就槓桿而言，你需要按產品來考慮。我將從 Tread 開始。我們——我認為我們都已經表明了我們對 Tread 的興奮和樂觀程度，這真的是——它是如此獨特，一個 89 NPS 的產品，這要歸功於我們的產品團隊由 Tom Cortese 和 Jen Cotter 領導。我們擁有世界上最好的產品和內容團隊。這是一個能夠宣傳的市場或渠道，這就是我們必須做的。

11% awareness, 30 days in. It's just about scaling awareness, getting more people buying that product, them doing the work for us on word-of-mouth. We know that formula very well, and we -- Jill mentioned the new campaign that started today, really pushing the Tread, educating people, to John's point, about it's not just running, it's this incredible full body experience. We've got the best instructors in the world. So that's going to be a foundational growth engine for us going forward that has us very excited.

11% 的認知度，30 天后。這只是提高認知度，讓更多人購買該產品，他們通過口碑為我們工作。我們非常了解這個公式，而且我們 -- Jill 提到了今天開始的新活動，真正推動了 Tread，教育人們，到約翰的觀點，關於它不僅僅是跑步，這是令人難以置信的全身體驗。我們有世界上最好的教練。因此，這將成為我們前進的基礎增長引擎，讓我們非常興奮。

On Bike, had we not been comping the massive Bike growth in COVID in isolation, the Bike units this year would look incredibly exciting. Jill talked about the net sub adds, largely coming from the sale of Bike this year, that's a lot of volume. And so we have to keep penetrating the huge opportunity in SAM. We've said it's early days, both in SAM and TAM. We dropped the price on Bike just recently, and it's getting the word out. It's also our messaging and creative. We do a lot of consumer insights work on how do we get people over the fence and coming into Peloton on the Bike, and we feel great about that. It's new channels we're opening up. We referenced corporate wellness and others, huge partnership with UnitedHealthcare that's just getting off the ground. So we like our headroom on Bike. We like international markets. We added Australia.

在自行車上，如果我們沒有單獨計算 COVID 中自行車的大規模增長，今年的自行車單元看起來會非常令人興奮。 Jill 談到了淨附加值，主要來自今年的 Bike 銷售，數量很大。因此，我們必須不斷挖掘 SAM 的巨大機會。我們已經說過，在 SAM 和 TAM 中還處於早期階段。我們最近降低了 Bike 的價格，它正在宣傳。這也是我們的信息傳遞和創意。我們做了很多關於如何讓人們越過柵欄並騎自行車進入 Peloton 的消費者洞察工作，我們對此感覺很好。這是我們正在開闢的新渠道。我們提到了企業健康和其他方面，與剛剛起步的 UnitedHealthcare 建立了巨大的合作夥伴關係。所以我們喜歡我們在自行車上的淨空。我們喜歡國際市場。我們添加了澳大利亞。

Australia sold just 3x within the first month in terms of an international launch, 3x the number of units that we've sold in U.K., Canada or Germany, any other new international markets. So we've got amazing growth prospects in front of us, and it's just about being focused, being disciplined, getting over this COVID comp and also getting more efficient with our marketing, but we know how to do all that.

就國際發布而言，澳大利亞在第一個月內僅售出 3 倍，是我們在英國、加拿大或德國以及任何其他新國際市場銷售的單位數量的 3 倍。因此，我們面前有驚人的增長前景，這只是要專注、自律、克服這種 COVID 組合併提高我們的營銷效率，但我們知道如何做到這一切。

Our next question comes from Laurent Vasilescu of Exane BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Laurent Vasilescu。

Two-part question here. During last year's Investor Day, you provided a lot of great stats about the income brackets of the consumer, the demographics. Embedded in your full year guidance for this year, like who is your target consumer, considering the price cut on the Bike?

這裡的兩部分問題。在去年的投資者日期間，您提供了很多關於消費者收入等級、人口統計的重要統計數據。嵌入到您今年的全年指導中，例如考慮到自行車的降價，您的目標消費者是誰？

And then secondly, more of a modeling question, but I think you mentioned there was a new digital marketing landscape now with Apple. Sales and marketing was 35% of sales. How do we think about those metrics for the second quarter and the full year?

其次，更多的是一個建模問題，但我想你提到蘋果現在有了一個新的數字營銷格局。銷售和市場營銷佔銷售額的 35%。我們如何看待第二季度和全年的這些指標？

Great. In terms of -- I might just take your -- the second question first yet again because I think it's an easier question to tackle. Are you just asking what percentage we believe the leverage we're going to see in the sales and marketing line versus leverage? Certainly, versus Q1, we expect our sales and marketing to come down fairly dramatically throughout the year.

偉大的。就--我可能會再次回答你的--第二個問題，因為我認為這是一個更容易解決的問題。您是否只是在問我們認為我們將在銷售和營銷線上看到的槓桿與槓桿的百分比是多少？當然，與第一季度相比，我們預計全年我們的銷售和營銷將大幅下降。

As you can imagine, in sales and marketing, right, obviously, in Q1, we began ramping our Bike media to talk about the price drop. And of course, that was our seasonal level of revenue. So sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue was obviously at a seasonal high for us.

正如你可以想像的那樣，在銷售和營銷方面，很明顯，在第一季度，我們開始增加我們的自行車媒體來談論價格下降。當然，這是我們的季節性收入水平。因此，對於我們來說，銷售和營銷佔收入的百分比顯然處於季節性高位。

As we move through the year, Q2 will be also a big key sales season for us. Essentially, you can expect through the year to probably end in the low to mid-20s on overall sales and marketing as a percentage. So it does come down almost sequentially through the year. So that is -- and then, did you have a question, I think, embedded on digital marketing?

隨著我們一年的到來，第二季度對我們來說也將是一個重要的銷售季節。從本質上講，您可以預計全年的整體銷售和營銷百分比可能會在 20 多歲到 20 年代中期結束。所以它確實在一年中幾乎按順序下降。那就是-然後，我認為您是否有一個嵌入數字營銷的問題？

That was the part of the question because of the new landscape, like how much is marketing as a percentage of your sales going forward for this year? But yes, that's in the first part of the question...

這是新形勢下問題的一部分，比如今年營銷佔銷售額的百分比是多少？但是，是的，這是問題的第一部分......

Yes. Digital marketing -- yes, if you're talking about more of the media spend aspect of it, obviously, our full sales and marketing line does have obviously our -- it's all of our fully loaded showroom costs and merchant fees and, of course, everybody on the team. So are you asking specifically what breakout is variable media spend?

是的。數字營銷——是的，如果你在談論更多的媒體支出方面，顯然，我們的完整銷售和營銷線確實有我們的——這是我們所有的滿載展廳成本和商家費用，當然還有，團隊中的每個人。那麼你是在問什麼突破是可變媒體支出？

Yes, that would be great. And also, just overall, guidance on sales and marketing total as a percentage of sales for the year, which I think you just gave.

是啊，那樣最好了。而且，總體而言，關於銷售和營銷總額佔當年銷售額的百分比的指導，我認為你剛剛給出了。

Yes. And I will say on this point, as you know, TV has always been an incredible medium for us to convey the Peloton value proposition. And so I would generally say we're more heavily weighted there. So I don't think the changes that we talked about in the digital landscape are going to impact us much.

是的。我會在這一點上說，如你所知，電視一直是我們傳達 Peloton 價值主張的絕佳媒介。所以我通常會說我們在那裡的權重更大。因此，我認為我們在數字領域所討論的變化不會對我們產生太大影響。

I do think from a variable media spend, we are a little bit more weighted, and there's a lot of other channels like OTT, but certainly, TV is a big category for us. So we're not concerned with the media landscape, but certainly, it does have some impact.

我確實認為，從可變媒體支出來看，我們的權重更高一些，還有很多其他頻道，比如 OTT，但可以肯定的是，電視對我們來說是一個很大的類別。所以我們並不關心媒體格局，但可以肯定的是，它確實會產生一些影響。

And then I think, William, you're going to take the demo question?

然後我想，威廉，你會回答演示問題嗎？

Sure, I can. We don't want to go too much into kind of our secret sauce, but we have customer segments that we used to buy media against. You're asking specifically about demographics. I think the general push there that I can talk about is we want to continue to penetrate younger and less household income. And we've been successful doing that.

我當然可以。我們不想過多地研究我們的秘訣，但我們有過去購買媒體所針對的客戶群。您是在專門詢問人口統計數據。我認為我可以談論的一般推動力是我們希望繼續滲透到更年輕和更少的家庭收入中。我們已經成功地做到了這一點。

Part of the thesis strategically on the price drop was we wanted to bring this amazing experience to more and more people. And obviously, we want to do that against the mission John talked about in his closing remarks, it's also good for business. It allows us to really penetrate the TAM and SAM given the size of that segment. And it's the fastest growing meaning, meaning the under 35,000 and 50,000 and under. It's been our fastest-growing segment for -- I think it's been the last year, we think -- I'm almost sure that's the case.

關於價格下降的戰略性論文的一部分是我們希望將這種驚人的體驗帶給越來越多的人。顯然，我們希望針對約翰在閉幕詞中談到的使命這樣做，這對業務也有好處。鑑於該段的大小，它使我們能夠真正穿透 TAM 和 SAM。它是增長最快的含義，意思是 35,000 和 50,000 及以下。這是我們增長最快的部分——我認為這是去年，我們認為——我幾乎可以肯定情況就是如此。

And so as we think about the opportunity, we talk a lot about Connected Fitness and our leadership there, but we really see it much more expansively. If you look at the price of fitness, which is a massive global market, it's really about -- there are 181 million people globally, gym memberships globally, and you look at the 6.2 million members that John referenced, and you think about our experience and the convenience of home and the value that we offer and engagement, and it's why we're so confident this -- if we do our job, continue to do our jobs, it comes to us. So that's -- we think about a broad segment. We have members that are 80-plus, and we have 20-year-old members. And so it's really a wide demographic.

因此，當我們考慮這個機會時，我們談論了很多關於 Connected Fitness 和我們在這方面的領導力，但我們真的看到它的範圍更廣。如果你看看健身的價格，這是一個巨大的全球市場，它實際上是——全球有 1.81 億人，全球健身房會員，你看看約翰提到的 620 萬會員，你會想到我們的經驗以及家庭的便利性以及我們提供的價值和參與度，這就是為什麼我們對此如此有信心-如果我們做好工作，繼續做好我們的工作，它就會出現在我們身上。所以這就是 - 我們考慮一個廣泛的細分市場。我們有 80 多歲的成員，我們有 20 歲的成員。所以這確實是一個廣泛的人口統計。

Our next question comes from John Blackledge of Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

This is James, on for John. In light of the traffic trends you mentioned, how are you thinking about the role of retail showrooms to drive conversion of the treadmill and bike? Prior to the pandemic, I think you said somewhere around half of treadmill conversions were due to first-hand experience, i.e., customers trying out treadmills on a [showroom]. Is that still the right way to think about conversions for the lower cost treadmill?

這是詹姆斯，代表約翰。鑑於您提到的交通趨勢，您如何看待零售陳列室在推動跑步機和自行車轉換方面的作用？在大流行之前，我想你說過大約一半的跑步機轉換是由於第一手經驗，即客戶在 [陳列室] 上試用跑步機。這仍然是考慮低成本跑步機轉換的正確方法嗎？

And then a second question on the product portfolio. In light of the supply chain issues and inflationary pressures, does that potentially impact product release cadence as we get through fiscal 2022?

然後是關於產品組合的第二個問題。鑑於供應鏈問題和通脹壓力，這是否會影響我們度過 2022 財年的產品發布節奏？

Yes, James, I'll jump in on the first one. I'm glad you asked because as you know, we have over 100 fantastic store -- retail stores worldwide. And we are -- whenever we launch a new product, those stores become an even more important strategic asset. And we will see that when we watch our daily sales throughout the week and how much better the Tread does on Saturday and Sunday as those stores are full. And so for a more mature product, you might feel comfortable buying it online, like a Bike because you've ridden before, whether it was a hotel or your friend or whatever. And so you have a familiarity with that product.

是的，詹姆斯，我會加入第一個。我很高興你問，因為如你所知，我們在全球擁有 100 多家很棒的商店——零售店。而且我們——每當我們推出新產品時，這些商店就會成為更重要的戰略資產。我們會看到，當我們觀察整個一周的每日銷售情況時，以及當這些商店爆滿時，Tread 在周六和周日的表現會有多好。因此，對於更成熟的產品，你可能會覺得在網上購買它很舒服，比如自行車，因為你以前騎過，無論是在酒店還是你的朋友或其他什麼地方。因此，您對該產品很熟悉。

Obviously, with the Tread, the new Tread being 2 months new in some markets, and even newer in other markets, going to those stores and getting on and having an experience and more and more going to the back and actually doing a workout in some of these stores is a huge asset. And while a lot of people are shutting down stores, we love our retail stores for just this reason. We think it's a really critical strategic asset when we bring new products to market. And we talked about the Tread is new, and we're going to have other new products in the coming quarters that we're excited about, and they also benefit from the retail footprint.

顯然，有了 Tread，新的 Tread 在某些市場是 2 個月新的，在其他市場甚至是更新的，去那些商店並開始體驗，並且越來越多地回到後面並實際在一些市場進行鍛煉這些商店是一筆巨大的資產。雖然很多人都在關閉商店，但我們愛我們的零售店正是出於這個原因。當我們將新產品推向市場時，我們認為這是一項非常重要的戰略資產。我們談到 Tread 是新的，我們將在未來幾個季度推出其他讓我們興奮的新產品，它們也將從零售足跡中受益。

I'll take another product cadence question. Sorry about that. We did say this year is going to be a big year for product launches. We stand by that. We're excited if you caught in my prepared remarks, I alluded to the coming weeks and months of some new announcements, one that I'm very excited about. And then potentially another one next year, hopefully in H2. And we're pushing -- we've had a lot of fantastic R&D in the hopper for years at this point, and we are super excited to bring it to our members and to expand our opportunity. That's all I can say right now. But we are a technology and innovation company, and we're going to show what that means in the coming quarters.

我將提出另一個產品節奏問題。對於那個很抱歉。我們確實說過，今年將是產品發布的重要一年。我們堅持這一點。如果您聽到我準備好的講話，我們會很興奮，我提到了未來幾周和幾個月的一些新公告，我對此感到非常興奮。然後明年可能還會有一個，希望在下半年。我們正在推動——多年來，我們已經在漏斗中進行了很多出色的研發，我們非常高興能夠將其帶給我們的會員並擴大我們的機會。這就是我現在能說的。但我們是一家技術和創新公司，我們將在未來幾個季度展示這意味著什麼。

At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to John Foley for closing remarks.

在這個時候，我想把電話轉給 John Foley 做結束語。

I guess that's it. Thanks, everybody. We'll talk to you next time.

我想就是這樣。謝謝大家。我們下次再談。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。