派樂騰 (PTON) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Peloton Interactive Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎來到 Peloton Interactive 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。請繼續。

Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's fiscal fourth quarter conference call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy; and CFO, Liz Coddington.

早上好，歡迎參加 Peloton 的第四財季電話會議。加入今天的電話會議的是首席執行官 Barry McCarthy；和首席財務官 Liz Coddington。

Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

我們對您的問題的評論和答复僅反映了管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的陳述，這些陳述是聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩個文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.

在本次電話會議中，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

I'll now turn the call over to our operator to take our first question. Operator?

我現在將把電話轉給我們的接線員來回答我們的第一個問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) And our first question is from the line of Justin Post from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

Great. A couple. First, when you said churn about 1.41%, and I think it would be lower if you adjust for Canada, is that what you're looking for in the first quarter? Or is the adjusted with Canada?

偉大的。一對夫婦。首先，當您說流失率約為 1.41% 時，我認為如果您根據加拿大進行調整，流失率會更低，這是否是您在第一季度所尋找的？還是跟加拿大的調整？

And then secondly, just thinking about the shape of the year, looking for flattish subs in the first quarter, how are you thinking about holiday seasonality going forward? And what needs to happen to get to break-even cash flow?

其次，只考慮今年的形狀，尋找第一季度持平的潛艇，你如何看待未來的假期季節性？為了實現盈虧平衡現金流需要做什麼？

You take the first two parts, and I'll do the cash flow.

你拿前兩部分，我來做現金流。

Sure. So the first question, I believe, if I understand correctly, was related to churn and what our expectations are for the first quarter. As we mentioned in our shareholder letter, we saw a modest increase in our monthly churn for Q4 and that was related to our All-Access subscription price increase that we had in June. I'm happy to say, though, that for July, we saw churn levels declined from June and declined from the Q4 average. So we expect our retention levels to remain attractive. Our engagement trends suggest that churn will continue to remain low in the first quarter and for the rest of the year.

當然。因此，如果我理解正確，我相信第一個問題與客戶流失以及我們對第一季度的預期有關。正如我們在股東信中提到的那樣，我們看到第四季度的每月客戶流失率略有增加，這與我們在 6 月份的 All-Access 訂閱價格上漲有關。不過，我很高興地說，在 7 月份，我們看到客戶流失率比 6 月份有所下降，並且比第 4 季度的平均水平有所下降。因此，我們預計我們的保留水平將保持吸引力。我們的參與趨勢表明，第一季度和今年剩餘時間的客戶流失率將繼續保持低位。

With regard to the flat subs, seasonally, Q1 is a low growth quarter for Connected business product sales. We did increase prices on Bike+ and Tread and that took effect on 8/12. And while we do expect our Q1 churn to remain low, as I said before, our volume of Connected Fitness growth additions in Q1 is expected to be offset by churn due to the size of the sub base.

就扁平潛艇而言，從季節性角度來看，第一季度是互聯業務產品銷售的低增長季度。我們確實提高了 Bike+ 和 Tread 的價格，並於 8 月 12 日生效。正如我之前所說，雖然我們確實預計我們的第一季度流失率將保持在低水平，但由於子基地的規模，我們在第一季度增加的 Connected Fitness 增長量預計將被流失率所抵消。

Now how does that play for seasonality going forward for the rest of the year? We're not providing any full year guidance on revenue or subscribers, but we do expect revenue for the year to most closely resemble the seasonality for fiscal '22 in terms of revenue per quarter. Hopefully, that's helpful.

現在，這對今年剩餘時間的季節性有何影響？我們沒有提供任何關於收入或訂戶的全年指導，但我們確實預計，就每季度的收入而言，今年的收入將最接近 22 財年的季節性。希望這會有所幫助。

And then I think the third part of the question, Justin, was the cash flow, what do we have to do to get to breakeven cash flow. And the short answer is, not to be glib, we need to rightsize the spending of the business or the run rate of the business, whatever the run rate of the business turns out to be.

然後我認為問題的第三部分，賈斯汀，是現金流，我們必須做些什麼才能達到盈虧平衡的現金流。簡短的回答是，不要油嘴滑舌，我們需要調整業務支出或業務運行率，無論業務運行率如何。

And then secondly, and I made this point when I first joined the company, both to employees and to investors, it's not enough to just cut expenses. We have to grow revenue. And we've taken a number of steps in order to accomplish that objective. We have substantially picked up the pace of innovation and testing and risk-taking in order to accomplish that objective.

其次，當我第一次加入公司時，我對員工和投資者都提出了這一點，僅僅削減開支是不夠的。我們必須增加收入。我們已經採取了許多步驟來實現這一目標。為了實現這一目標，我們大幅加快了創新、測試和冒險的步伐。

Among the new initiatives are Fitness-as-a-Service, the sale of previously owned bikes, evolution of our digital app strategy, which we have more to say over the next several months. Among other initiatives like the introduction of the rower and the new pricing strategy.

新舉措包括健身即服務、舊自行車的銷售、我們數字應用戰略的演變，我們在接下來的幾個月裡有更多話要說。在其他舉措中，例如引入賽艇運動員和新的定價策略。

So we happen to sit right smack in the middle of the pivot where we have made substantial progress addressing all of the infrastructure-related headwinds of the business. And now it's time to get back to the business of expanding the franchise. We do that principally by expanding the TAM. And we do that principally with a good, better, best strategy that targets not only the premium segment of the market, but the value segment of the market and the use case for Connected Fitness with competitive platforms.

因此，我們恰好處於關鍵點的中間，我們在解決所有與基礎設施相關的業務逆風方面取得了實質性進展。現在是時候回到擴大特許經營的業務了。我們主要通過擴展 TAM 來做到這一點。我們主要通過一個好的、更好的、最佳的策略來做到這一點，該策略不僅針對市場的高端部分，還針對市場的價值部分和具有競爭平台的 Connected Fitness 的用例。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

You've had multiple product price changes over the past several months. Just trying to understand how comfortable you are now with the most recently revised pricing that creates this greater gap between entry level and premium products and then how you're going to communicate those options in your marketing.

在過去幾個月中，您的產品價格發生了多次變化。只是想了解您現在對最近修訂的定價有多滿意，這在入門級產品和高級產品之間造成了更大的差距，然後您將如何在營銷中傳達這些選項。

And then, Barry, if you could perhaps also update us on Fitness-as-a-Service, how we should be thinking about kind of full rollout and how you'll increase awareness around the product going forward.

然後，巴里，如果你也可以更新我們關於健身即服務的信息，我們應該如何考慮全面推出，以及你將如何提高對未來產品的認識。

Doug, I have difficulty hearing. But I think the first part of the question is about pricing generally, and then loan to the market. And the second piece of the question is about FaaS, how do we think about it? And what are our plans for it.

道格，我聽力有困難。但我認為問題的第一部分是關於一般定價，然後是向市場貸款。第二個問題是關於 FaaS，我們如何看待它？我們的計劃是什麼。

Okay. Let me begin with FaaS, and then I think I'm going to ask Liz to jump in on top. So we've sort of gradually expanded the footprint for FaaS and our marketing initiatives around FaaS. We're selling, selling, renting at a pace of, in round numbers, 30,000 to 40,000 units on an annual basis. So it's a relatively small footprint, and we haven't really leaned into it yet.

好的。讓我從 FaaS 開始，然後我想我會請 Liz 加入其中。因此，我們逐漸擴大了 FaaS 的足跡以及我們圍繞 FaaS 的營銷計劃。我們以每年 30,000 到 40,000 個單位的速度銷售、銷售、出租。所以這是一個相對較小的足跡，我們還沒有真正投入其中。

We -- and it begs the question why because we've been at it for a while. And the answer is in order to know whether or not the value proposition works for consumers and works for Peloton, we need to understand what the retention behavior is and the implied churn rates so we can calculate lifetime value and figure out whether or not we've created a nuclear bomb or the path to the promised land. And I would say, so far, we're encouraged by the churn data that we've seen, recognizing that it's a growing but limited sample. So I'm guardedly optimistic.

我們——這引出了一個問題，為什麼因為我們已經有一段時間了。答案是為了了解價值主張是否適用於消費者和 Peloton，我們需要了解保留行為是什麼以及隱含的流失率，以便我們可以計算生命週期價值並弄清楚我們是否我製造了核彈或通往應許之地的道路。我想說，到目前為止，我們對所看到的流失數據感到鼓舞，認識到這是一個不斷增長但有限的樣本。所以我謹慎樂觀。

I would say that I would think a win for us might be something like 125,000 to 150,000 bikes a year, renters, and the ability, which we have just brought online, to utilize our certified preowned inventory to fulfill demand under that program. So I would say net-net, that looks pretty encouraging.

我想說，我認為對我們來說，一個勝利可能是每年 125,000 到 150,000 輛自行車、租房者以及我們剛剛上線的能力，利用我們經過認證的二手庫存來滿足該計劃下的需求。所以我會說net-net，這看起來很令人鼓舞。

Now there will be some substitution behavior, I think, between certified preowned and growth in Fitness-as-a-Service because they both target basically the same segment of the marketplace, which is the value-minded shopper. And it's pretty clear that we are bringing into the Peloton family a younger and slightly more female demo than we have historically, which is good news. I mean, those programs are expanding the TAM.

我認為，現在在經過認證的二手車和健身即服務的增長之間會有一些替代行為，因為它們都針對市場的基本相同部分，即具有價值意識的購物者。很明顯，我們正在為 Peloton 家族帶來一個比歷史上更年輕、更女性化的演示，這是個好消息。我的意思是，這些程序正在擴展 TAM。

Now as it relates to CPO, we said we've seen substantially better performance. We -- off of very small numbers, so take it with a grain of salt. We outperformed our forecast by 3x. And we have a lot of bikes in inventory, used bikes, that we can recycle into that program. We've been talking about it for a year. We finally got it live. We're going to lean into it, remains to be seen how big that program can become. And as it scales, what the substitution behavior will be with the Fitness-as-a-Service. Okay. I probably talked too long about that, sorry.

現在，由於它與 CPO 相關，我們說我們已經看到了明顯更好的性能。我們 - 人數很少，所以要持保留態度。我們的表現超出我們的預期 3 倍。我們有很多自行車庫存，二手自行車，我們可以回收到該計劃中。我們已經談論了一年。我們終於把它直播了。我們將深入研究它，還有待觀察該程序能變得多大。隨著規模的擴大，健身即服務的替代行為將是什麼。好的。可能我說的太久了，抱歉。

As it relates to pricing, I want us to pursue a good, better, best strategy. So we believe and I think the net promoter scores for our various products support the notion that in the premium segment of the marketplace, the integrated hardware user experience from Peloton is the absolute best. And there are people who are willing to pay a premium for that. And we want to serve that marketplace well. But we also want -- if we're going to grow our revenues as fast as we would like, we're going to have to increase the TAM. And if we're going to increase the TAM, we're going to have to reach for new market segments, and that's where the good and better comes in. And that's where the FaaS and Fitness-as-a-Service and the digital app strategy comes into play.

因為它與定價有關，我希望我們追求一個好的、更好的、最好的策略。因此，我們相信並且我認為我們各種產品的淨推薦值支持這樣一種觀點，即在市場的高端市場中，Peloton 的集成硬件用戶體驗絕對是最好的。有些人願意為此支付溢價。我們希望很好地服務於這個市場。但我們也想要——如果我們要以我們希望的速度增長我們的收入，我們將不得不增加 TAM。如果我們要增加 TAM，我們將不得不進入新的細分市場，這就是好的和更好的地方。這就是 FaaS 和健身即服務以及數字化的地方應用策略開始發揮作用。

And with respect to the digital app strategy, I had previously told investors that I wanted us to pursue a freemium strategy, we are going to implement that. There'll be various price points, and you'll have access to different kinds of content depending on how much you pay for the digital app. Roughly half of our paying customers today use our Connected Fitness-related content on the app. So it's quite clear they're using the app on somebody else's hardware, which is something we've always shied away from. And going forward, it's something we're going to lean into.

關於數字應用策略，我之前曾告訴投資者，我希望我們採用免費增值策略，我們將實施該策略。會有不同的價格點，您可以訪問不同類型的內容，具體取決於您為數字應用程序支付的費用。今天，大約一半的付費客戶在應用程序上使用我們與 Connected Fitness 相關的內容。所以很明顯，他們在其他人的硬件上使用該應用程序，這是我們一直迴避的事情。展望未來，這是我們要努力的方向。

I would be delighted for you to use our content on somebody else's hardware if you already purchased it. That's a big installed base. And I think it's a big opportunity for monetization for us and we're going to lean into that segment of the market as well in order to grow TAM.

如果您已經購買了我們的內容，我會很高興您在其他人的硬件上使用它。這是一個很大的安裝基礎。我認為這對我們來說是一個巨大的貨幣化機會，我們也將進軍該市場，以發展 TAM。

So we'll figure out the pricing as we go. I think it's -- if we have the luxury, like we do now because of our cash position and the changes we've made in the business, to price products in order to earn a reasonable return on hardware, we will. That wasn't the case earlier in the year. We absolutely needed to liquidate hardware to manage for cash, so we did, but we put that in the rearview mirror at the moment. Did I answer your question?

因此，我們將在進行時弄清楚定價。我認為這是 - 如果我們有奢侈品，就像我們現在因為我們的現金狀況和我們在業務中所做的改變而做的那樣，為產品定價以獲得合理的硬件回報，我們會的。今年早些時候情況並非如此。我們絕對需要清算硬件來管理現金，所以我們這樣做了，但我們現在把它放在後視鏡裡。我回答你的問題了嗎？

You did. Very helpful.

你做到了。非常有幫助。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is coming from the line of Ron Josey from Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Citi 的 Ron Josey。

And I wanted to ask maybe a bigger picture on gross margins. And Barry, I know we talked about the focus being on free cash flow, but help us understand how you view gross margins maybe on the subscription side, given the pricing increase? And then on the product side, as you exit manufacturing and last mile and FaaS gaining share here. Just as we think bigger picture on the way towards free cash flow.

我想問一下毛利率的更大圖景。還有巴里，我知道我們談到了對自由現金流的關注，但請幫助我們了解您如何看待訂閱方面的毛利率，考慮到價格上漲？然後在產品方面，當你退出製造和最後一英里時，FaaS 在這裡獲得了份額。正如我們在通往自由現金流的道路上思考更大的圖景一樣。

And maybe a second one just on that. Any insight or help us understand how you view inventory just continued coming down going forward.

也許還有第二個。任何見解或幫助我們了解您如何看待庫存只會繼續下降。

I'm going to ask Liz to take the gross margin subscription and bigger picture piece, and I'll just take that inventory liquidation.

我要讓 Liz 接受毛利認購和更大的圖片，我只會接受庫存清算。

I think there might be a perception that because we have a large inventory position that we will be liquidating during FY '23, we will have a large wind at our back from a free cash flow perspective that will help us achieve our objectives in FY '23, but we will not have the benefit of it in FY '24.

我認為可能會有這樣的看法，因為我們有大量庫存頭寸，我們將在 23 財年清算，從自由現金流的角度來看，我們將有一股強大的力量，這將幫助我們實現我們在 23 財年的目標。 23，但我們不會在 24 財年受益。

And I just want to burst that balloon and say, actually on a net basis, the benefit in FY '23 will be all of $6 million roughly. And the reason for that is we have the benefit, of course, of selling inventory we've already paid for, but we also -- in settlement of supply-related issues that we've dealt with in the past several quarters. We have quite a bit of money flowing out the door. So on a net basis, that's sort of a no harm, no foul.

我只想打破那個氣球，說，實際上在淨額基礎上，23 財年的收益大約是 600 萬美元。這樣做的原因是，我們當然可以出售我們已經支付的庫存，但我們也 - 在解決我們在過去幾個季度處理過的供應相關問題。我們有相當多的錢流出門外。所以在淨基礎上，這是一種沒有傷害，沒有犯規。

And I think for the full year, if we're successful in managing to our current forecast, we'll end the year with about $1 billion in cash, which leaves us well capitalized for the run rate of the business.

而且我認為全年，如果我們成功實現了當前的預測，我們將在年底獲得大約 10 億美元的現金，這使我們能夠為業務的運行率提供充足的資本。

Liz, do you want to address the gross margin piece of the question?

麗茲，你想解決毛利率問題嗎？

Yes. So with regard to gross margin, the way I think about gross margin is just kind of two pieces, right? There's the revenue piece, which we increased the prices for Bike+ and Tread, and so that's going to obviously have a positive effect on gross margin overall. And then from a cost of goods perspective, we decided to fully outsource our last-mile delivery to 3PLs, we announced that. That will have a positive impact on our delivery costs.

是的。所以關於毛利率，我對毛利率的看法只是兩部分，對吧？還有收入部分，我們提高了 Bike+ 和 Tread 的價格，因此這顯然會對整體毛利率產生積極影響。然後從商品成本的角度來看，我們決定將最後一英里的交付完全外包給 3PL，我們宣布了這一點。這將對我們的交付成本產生積極影響。

We're also focusing on improving our delivery quality. That should also help reduce our warranty costs over time. And then kind of more of a longer-term opportunity on gross margin, this is related to the Connected Fitness side of it, is opportunities to reduce the cost of our hardware through how we design our products, but that's obviously like a longer-term opportunity.

我們還專注於提高我們的交付質量。隨著時間的推移，這也應該有助於降低我們的保修成本。然後是毛利率的長期機會，這與它的 Connected Fitness 方面有關，是通過我們如何設計產品來降低硬件成本的機會，但這顯然是一個長期的機會機會。

Let me just jump in and mention related to that is redesign to enable self-install, which would dramatically change the logistics and the costs associated with last mile domestically and internationally.

讓我直接說一下，與此相關的是重新設計以實現自我安裝，這將極大地改變與國內和國際最後一英里相關的物流和成本。

Yes. And I did want to reiterate that for Q1, we provided a guidance of around 35% gross margin, but we're not providing any further guidance for the year beyond that at this time.

是的。我確實想重申，對於第一季度，我們提供了大約 35% 的毛利率指導，但目前我們沒有提供任何進一步的指導。

You also had a question about kind of subscription gross margin. And obviously, that is -- that margin is higher than our product gross -- our Connected Fitness product gross margin. As our subscription base continues to grow and mature, that will naturally have some benefits to gross margin overall as well.

您還有一個關於訂閱毛利率的問題。顯然，這就是 - 利潤率高於我們的產品毛利率 - 我們的 Connected Fitness 產品毛利率。隨著我們的訂閱基礎不斷增長和成熟，這自然也會對整體毛利率產生一些好處。

Our next question is off the line of Lauren Schenk from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。

Great. Just following up on that last one. How should we think about sort of the longer term or stabilized Connected Fitness gross margin?

偉大的。只是跟進最後一個。我們應該如何考慮長期或穩定的 Connected Fitness 毛利率？

And my second question, in terms of the self-install option, is that only going to be available on Amazon for the time being? Any color on the margin benefit from that? It looks like pricing is similar or the same as having the professional delivery. And then in terms of other potential third-party partners, what are you looking for in those new relationships?

我的第二個問題，就自安裝選項而言，是否暫時只能在亞馬遜上使用？邊緣上的任何顏色都會從中受益嗎？看起來定價與專業交付相似或相同。然後就其他潛在的第三方合作夥伴而言，您在這些新關係中尋找什麼？

Well, let me see. As it relates to long-term gross margin, I think increasingly, the business is driven by the growth in recurring subscription revenue. That has an inherently higher margin than the hardware side of the business. And so the long-term trend for margin is towards the software margin rather than the hardware margin.

好吧，讓我看看。由於它與長期毛利率有關，我認為該業務越來越受到經常性訂閱收入增長的推動。這本質上比業務的硬件方面具有更高的利潤率。因此，利潤的長期趨勢是軟件利潤而不是硬件利潤。

The cost implications for self-install -- well, let me talk about the implications of self-install generally. One of the challenges related to the delivery of hardware is coordinating the delivery schedule with the availability of the members who purchased hardware. And if we could move to a drop ship model, we eliminate all or the majority of that friction, which would be a very good thing.

自安裝的成本影響——好吧，讓我來談談自安裝的一般影響。與硬件交付相關的挑戰之一是協調交付時間表與購買硬件的成員的可用性。如果我們可以轉向運輸船模型，我們可以消除所有或大部分摩擦，這將是一件非常好的事情。

Secondly, if in the process of designing a self-install capability, we were able to decrease the weight of the unit, there's some last mile cost-related benefits that would flow through to us as well.

其次，如果在設計自安裝功能的過程中，我們能夠減輕裝置的重量，那麼最後一英里成本相關的好處也會流向我們。

And then lastly, if we can get to a self-install, we think it significantly improves the opportunities for international growth, which we plan to lean into when we are able to absorb the incremental cost for that expansion.

最後，如果我們能夠自行安裝，我們認為它會顯著改善國際增長的機會，我們計劃在能夠吸收擴張的增量成本時利用這些機會。

And then there was a question generally about third-party retail partners. In my previous comments to investors, I had indicated this was a strategy that I hope we would lean into. It's early. We're learning. This is not a substitute for our own retail strategy. This is a recognition that we need to be where our customers are. Sometimes that's in the store, sometimes that's on our website.

然後還有一個關於第三方零售合作夥伴的普遍問題。在我之前對投資者的評論中，我曾表示這是我希望我們能夠採用的策略。現在還早。我們正在學習。這不能替代我們自己的零售策略。這是對我們需要在客戶所在的地方的認可。有時在商店裡，有時在我們的網站上。

We know from our own research that there are roughly 500,000 searches a day on Amazon for -- a month -- excuse me, a month for Peloton. And so there's an opportunity to sell there and in other retail formats as well. And it's important that we test and learn by broadening our distribution to see which of those could be cost-effective for us. And then we'll, over time, as we come to understand the margin implications, that would be great.

我們從我們自己的研究中知道，亞馬遜上每天大約有 500,000 次搜索——一個月——對不起，Peloton 一個月。因此，有機會在那里以及以其他零售形式進行銷售。重要的是我們通過擴大我們的分佈來測試和學習，看看哪些對我們來說是具有成本效益的。然後，隨著時間的推移，當我們了解保證金的影響時，這將是很棒的。

In time, it'd be terrific if we could broaden the distribution to other Peloton hardware platforms on Amazon. But at the moment, we need to be able to be drop shipped in order to be on their platform, and our Tread and our Bike+ doesn't lend itself to that solution yet, which is why it's not yet -- we have not yet offered it for sale on their platform. But in time, I hope that we are able to find a solution to that short-term roadblock.

隨著時間的推移，如果我們能夠將分發範圍擴大到亞馬遜上的其他 Peloton 硬件平台，那就太棒了。但目前，我們需要能夠直接發貨才能進入他們的平台，而我們的 Tread 和 Bike+ 尚不適合該解決方案，這就是為什麼它還沒有——我們還沒有在他們的平台上出售。但隨著時間的推移，我希望我們能夠找到解決這個短期障礙的辦法。

The next question will come from the line of Edward Yruma from Piper Sandler.

下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Edward Yruma。

I want to just click down a little bit on engagement. I know you're going to stop reporting metrics on a quarterly basis. But how do you think about engagement holistically? Obviously, I know a lot of moving pieces post COVID and seasonality, but where do you see engagement going over time? And is there anything you can do to help drive that number higher?

我想點擊一下訂婚。我知道您將停止按季度報告指標。但是，您如何從整體上看待參與？顯然，我知道在 COVID 和季節性之後有很多動人的作品，但是隨著時間的推移，您認為參與度會在哪裡？你能做些什麼來幫助提高這個數字嗎？

So let me jump in here. I said I wanted to lean in the software. It's important that we be creative both in hardware and software. But I think the primary growth opportunity for us is in exploiting our singularly unique competitive advantage, which is our content, right? It is -- it's the crown jewel, and it continued to perform spectacularly well.

所以讓我跳到這裡。我說我想學習軟件。重要的是我們在硬件和軟件方面都具有創造性。但我認為我們的主要增長機會是利用我們獨特的競爭優勢，這就是我們的內容，對吧？它是——它是皇冠上的明珠，它繼續表現出色。

Now for you to be able to enjoy it, you have to be able to discover it. And the way we improve engagement and lower churn and increase lifetime value and drive more organic growth from word of mouth is by making you more delighted with that content. And the way we do that is by helping you engage with it by understanding -- by personalizing it, by giving it a front end that understands what your likes and dislikes are and then serving you content that is consistent with your preferences.

現在為了讓你能夠享受它，你必須能夠發現它。我們提高參與度、降低客戶流失率、增加生命週期價值並通過口耳相傳推動更多有機增長的方式是讓您對這些內容更加滿意。我們這樣做的方式是通過理解來幫助你參與其中——通過個性化它，通過給它一個前端來理解你的好惡，然後為你提供與你的偏好一致的內容。

This is what -- this is why Netflix beat Blockbuster. And this is among the reasons that Spotify has run the table with the world's largest streaming music service. And the more content you have, the more important it becomes that you'd be good, even great, at building that personalized user interface.

這就是——這就是 Netflix 擊敗 Blockbuster 的原因。這也是 Spotify 與世界上最大的流媒體音樂服務並駕齊驅的原因之一。而且，您擁有的內容越多，您在構建個性化用戶界面方面的表現就越出色，甚至更出色。

So it is currently a focus for us, and we will be relentless about it. And I would say we're still really in very early stages. I mean, there's a little bit of stuff we serve you. And if you use a Bike by web, example, there's a little bit of stuff on your screen when you log in that reflects -- maybe reflects some of the instructors you've taken classes from, but there's a ton of stuff that we continue to serve to you that you have never engaged with that reflects what we think you should be interested in, but what really matters is what you think you should be interested in. And so we need to close that gap.

所以它是我們目前的重點，我們將堅持不懈。我想說我們仍然處於非常早期的階段。我的意思是，我們為您提供了一些東西。例如，如果您通過網絡使用 Bike，當您登錄時，屏幕上會顯示一些反映 - 可能反映您所學過的一些教練的信息，但我們會繼續使用大量內容為您提供您從未參與過的服務，這反映了我們認為您應該對什麼感興趣，但真正重要的是您認為您應該對什麼感興趣。因此我們需要縮小這一差距。

Our next question will come from the line of Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe just a two-parter. Barry, how are you thinking about the health of the brand today? You came out of the pandemic with a lot of awareness of the brand and a lot of halo effect. But sales and marketing has been more of an area of reduction in the last couple of quarters. So how do you think about sort of returning to sales and marketing as a channel, continuing to grow awareness of the brand and use sales and marketing as a tool to address sort of the better, best strategy you talked about in terms of amplifying the gross addition dynamic for the platform?

也許只是一個兩方。巴里，您今天如何看待品牌的健康狀況？你從大流行中走出來，對品牌有很多認識和光環效應。但在過去幾個季度，銷售和營銷更多地是一個減少的領域。那麼，您如何看待回歸銷售和營銷作為一種渠道，繼續提高品牌知名度，並使用銷售和營銷作為一種工具來解決您談到的在擴大總收入方面更好、最好的策略為平台添加動態？

Thanks for the question, Eric. Fortunately, I think the health of the brand is exquisitely good. The health of the business has been challenged, but the brand remains beloved and the Net Promoter Scores remain extraordinary.

謝謝你的問題，埃里克。幸運的是，我認為該品牌的健康狀況非常好。業務的健康狀況受到了挑戰，但該品牌仍然受到人們的喜愛，淨推薦值仍然非同尋常。

If you are what your track record says you are, we are a U.S.-based bike company, right? 96% of hardware -- of the hardware platforms and people's homes today are bikes.

如果你是你的記錄所說的那樣，我們是一家美國的自行車公司，對吧？ 96%的硬件——今天的硬件平台和人們的家都是自行車。

But there's so much more opportunity available to us to drive growth. Not just Bike+, but the Tread, the Rower, the Guide and especially the digital app and coupled with the good, better, best strategy that opens up the segment of the TAM we haven't historically targeted. And the opportunity for us now is to invest in growing awareness.

但我們有更多的機會來推動增長。不僅僅是 Bike+，還有 Tread、Rower、Guide，尤其是數字應用程序，再加上好的、更好、最好的策略，打開了我們歷史上沒有瞄準的 TAM 細分市場。我們現在的機會是投資於提高認識。

By way of example, the Bike has a 53% unaided awareness, but the Tread is only 21%. The unaided awareness for the digital app is 4%. And so there's tremendous upside to be had, we can execute here. And in part, the principal message of my letter is, okay, we're pivoting now. There are a bunch of things we had to fix in order to put ourselves in this position, which didn't happen sooner, but it's happening now, and we're going to tackle head on this challenge related to marketing and growth.

例如，Bike 有 53% 的獨立意識，但 Tread 只有 21%。數字應用程序的獨立認知度為 4%。所以有巨大的上升空間，我們可以在這裡執行。在某種程度上，我這封信的主要信息是，好吧，我們現在正在轉向。為了讓自己處於這個位置，我們必須解決很多問題，這並沒有很快發生，但現在正在發生，我們將直面與營銷和增長相關的挑戰。

And what I've tried to articulate is that the different initiatives that we're going to pursue in order to drive success. The important thing to recognize is that the path to success involves having more swings at the plate. And so you've seen us deploy a number of initiatives to accomplish that objective.

我試圖闡明的是，為了推動成功，我們將採取不同的舉措。要認識到的重要一點是，通往成功的道路需要在盤子上有更多的波動。因此，您已經看到我們部署了許多舉措來實現這一目標。

And we're going to connect with the ball. It's just a matter of time. And I know from my Netflix experience and my Spotify experience, I can't tell you exactly which one of those initiatives is going to get us where we want to go. But I am confident of the cumulative effect.

我們將與球聯繫起來。這只是時間問題。而且我從我的 Netflix 經驗和我的 Spotify 經驗中知道，我無法確切地告訴你其中哪一項舉措會讓我們到達我們想要去的地方。但我對累積效應充滿信心。

Our next question will come from the line of Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

I have one on the next quarter guide. So I think this was somewhat asked earlier, but I just want to get a little bit more clarification. If you exclude the Canadian members in the guide, organically, does that imply net adds decline because 85% of members actually did take the action. So could you please clarify that?

我在下一季度指南中有一個。所以我認為這在早些時候被問到了，但我只是想得到更多的澄清。如果您在指南中排除加拿大成員，這是否意味著淨增加量下降，因為 85% 的成員確實採取了行動。那你能澄清一下嗎？

Second is on gross margins, possible to get a little bit more color on the magnitude of impact from the price increases versus the cost-cutting actions that you took related to customer service and outsourcing third-party logistics?

其次是關於毛利率，與您採取的與客戶服務和外包第三方物流相關的成本削減措施相比，價格上漲的影響程度是否有可能得到更多的了解？

And then the final question is, Barry, as you think about growth next year, possible to give a sense of how fast, if at all, the connected fitness market is expected to grow. And in terms of the magnitude of the impact of all these initiatives, whether it is FaaS or international, or digital subscription, app initiatives. Which ones do you think in order of magnitude will be most impactful next year?

最後一個問題是，巴里，當您考慮明年的增長時，您是否可以了解互聯健身市場的增長速度（如果有的話）。就所有這些舉措的影響程度而言，無論是 FaaS 還是國際化，還是數字訂閱、應用程序舉措。您認為明年哪些影響最大？

Liz is deciding how she must answer the first two.

Liz 正在決定她必須如何回答前兩個問題。

I'm trying to make sure I understand your questions, Shweta. So the first question was about the Canadian subscribers. I think what you were asking is if that implies a negative net add as a result of the fact that the subscribers churn, but not...

我正在努力確保我理解你的問題，Shweta。所以第一個問題是關於加拿大用戶的。我認為您要問的是，這是否意味著由於訂戶流失而導致的負淨增加，但不是...

They're not a gross add.

他們不是一個粗略的補充。

They're not a gross add. So they -- if they had not churned, it's just -- it wouldn't be an impact is the way that I sort of think about that. So not really -- they're not considered a gross add is effectively the way that we would think about that.

他們不是一個粗略的補充。所以他們——如果他們沒有攪動，那隻是——不會產生影響，這是我的想法。所以不是真的 - 他們不被認為是一個嚴重的添加實際上是我們考慮的方式。

So it shows up in the net, not the gross number.

所以它顯示在網絡中，而不是總數。

Correct, Correct. The gross margin question, I wasn't quite following what you were asking there. Is that...

正確，正確。毛利率問題，我並沒有完全按照你的要求。就是它...

How much of the gross margin -- just try to correct me if I'm wrong, how much of the gross margin improvement comes from last mile, member service reduction as opposed to price increase.

毛利率有多少——如果我錯了就試著糾正我，毛利率的提高有多少來自最後一英里，會員服務的減少而不是價格的增加。

That's right.

這是正確的。

While Liz is [noodling] on that, let me jump in on the connected fitness market next year. Honestly, I don't pretend to know what's going to happen to the marketplace as a result of different puts and calls in -- with the economy. I think the challenge for us regardless is to grow the TAM and to reach market segments that we don't currently reach in order to accomplish that objective.

雖然 Liz 對此很感興趣，但讓我明年加入互聯健身市場。老實說，我不會假裝知道由於不同的看跌期權和看漲期權會在市場上發生什麼——與經濟有關。我認為無論如何，我們面臨的挑戰是發展 TAM 並進入我們目前無法達到的細分市場，以實現這一目標。

So which leads me to answer to your question, where do I think will be the principal leverage points for the business. I'm going to put rower on the shelf for a moment in answering that question. Probably certified preowned, that just flew out the door, followed by -- in my nirvana, it would be followed by growth in the digital app because I think that is singularly important to us from a strategic perspective.

所以這導致我回答你的問題，我認為哪裡將成為業務的主要槓桿點。在回答這個問題時，我將暫時擱置賽艇運動員。可能是經過認證的二手車，剛剛飛出大門，然後——在我的必殺技中，緊隨其後的是數字應用程序的增長，因為我認為從戰略角度來看，這對我們來說非常重要。

And if we're successful with that initiative, we will unlock access to the installed base of competitive hardware and use occasions that don't currently exist for our content, followed by Fitness-as-a-Service. And if Fitness-as-a-Service really takes off, then there's a whole capital strategy that we will need to figure out for that business. But I'm confident that we'll have access to the capital, if the margins are as attractive as we think and if it's really growing as fast as we think it might.

如果我們在該計劃上取得成功，我們將解鎖對已安裝的競爭硬件基礎的訪問權限，並使用我們的內容目前不存在的場合，其次是健身即服務。如果健身即服務真的起飛，那麼我們需要為該業務制定一個完整的資本戰略。但我有信心，如果利潤率像我們想像的那樣有吸引力，並且如果它真的像我們想像的那樣快速增長，我們將能夠獲得資本。

And then I said, I'd put rower on the shelf. We will have to see how that product does when it arrives. It's going to be expensive, but I think we're going to revolutionize the market, and we'll see how those two cross currents land. But we anticipate that it will be a significantly better user experience than anything currently available in the marketplace.

然後我說，我會把划船機放在架子上。我們將不得不看看該產品到貨時的表現。這會很昂貴，但我認為我們將徹底改變市場，我們將看到這兩個交叉流如何落地。但我們預計它將比目前市場上的任何產品提供更好的用戶體驗。

Okay. For the gross margin question, I think you were asking like how should we think about the composition of the gross margin improvement and how much is coming from price and how much is coming from our 3PL logistics, moving to the 3PL outsourcing model for last-mile logistics.

好的。對於毛利率問題，我想你問的是我們應該如何考慮毛利率改善的構成，有多少來自價格，有多少來自我們的 3PL 物流，最後轉向 3PL 外包模式-英里物流。

In Q1, the vast majority is going to come from pricing because we just announced the move to outsource to third parties. And so that will take a bit of time. Over the course of the year, we still expect more of it, more than 50% ought to come from the pricing and -- but the logistics will be very impactful, and it will be meaningful over the course of the year. Does that help? Does that answer your question, Shweta?

在第一季度，絕大多數將來自定價，因為我們剛剛宣布將外包給第三方。所以這需要一點時間。在這一年中，我們仍然期待更多，超過 50% 應該來自定價，而且 - 但物流將非常有影響力，並且在一年中將是有意義的。這有幫助嗎？這能回答你的問題嗎，Shweta？

Our next question comes from the line of Kaumil Gajrawala from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Kaumil Gajrawala。

Can you talk a little bit about the consumer and maybe the interaction between in-person studios and gyms and connected fitness? Obviously, the industry is down quite a bit, and there's a lot of macro effects, but can you maybe just talk about what you might be seeing in terms of the pendulum maybe swinging one direction to the other?

你能談談消費者，也許是面對面工作室和健身房之間的互動以及互聯健身嗎？顯然，這個行業已經下滑了很多，並且有很多宏觀影響，但你能不能談談你可能看到的鐘擺可能會從一個方向擺動到另一個方向？

Let's see. I'm not sure that our experience translates to the experience of our competitors. I think it probably doesn't. In our uniquely different ecosystem where we've just opened up our studios, the amount of energy and -- amongst our passionate user base is, well, it's just something to behold. People lined up around the block for hours, classes oversold, crashing our reservation system. I mean it's just insane.

讓我們來看看。我不確定我們的經驗是否會轉化為競爭對手的經驗。我想應該不會吧。在我們剛剛開放工作室的獨特的不同生態系統中，我們充滿激情的用戶群中的能量和 - 嗯，這只是值得一看的東西。人們在街區排了幾個小時，課程超賣，我們的預訂系統崩潰了。我的意思是這太瘋狂了。

And that's not what the industry is experiencing generally. Now that back, notwithstanding the passion and enthusiasm among their rapid member base. As a percentage of total class is taken live, relatively small but it has an enormous halo effect and drives tremendous word of mouth, I think, all of which helps grow the brand. Is that helpful?

這不是該行業普遍經歷的情況。現在回來了，儘管他們快速的會員群中充滿了熱情和熱情。我認為，現場直播佔全班課程的比例相對較小，但它具有巨大的光環效應並推動了巨大的口碑，所有這些都有助於品牌的發展。這有幫助嗎？

Yes, that helps. Would you consider expanding the in-person studios and such? Obviously, you have a lot of excitement so far, but it's fairly small.

是的，這有幫助。你會考慮擴大個人工作室等嗎？顯然，到目前為止，你有很多興奮，但它相當小。

I think there's an opportunity -- I'll tell you how we are thinking about it. Jen Cotter, who runs that business for us spectacularly well, and I have spent time thinking about ways in which to create marketing and branding and PR opportunities on a local basis, using the celebrity power of our instructors in different geographic markets. So if we were to expand, I think that would be the sort of the kernel of an idea that we would try to leverage geographically rather than opening, say, incremental studios around the country just because the cost of doing that is so prohibitively high.

我認為這是一個機會——我會告訴你我們是如何考慮的。 Jen Cotter 為我們經營這項業務非常出色，我花時間思考如何利用我們在不同地理市場的講師的名人影響力在當地創造營銷、品牌推廣和公關機會。因此，如果我們要擴張，我認為這將是一種想法的核心，我們將嘗試在地理上加以利用，而不是僅僅因為這樣做的成本太高而在全國各地開設增量工作室。

Our next question will come from the line of John Blackledge from Cowen.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

Two questions. First, how should we think about the retail store footprint in fiscal '23 and beyond? And the second question, on cash flow breakeven. Is there any way to kind of think about the level of top line in second half '23 to get to that cash flow breakeven number?

兩個問題。首先，我們應該如何看待 23 財年及以後的零售店足跡？第二個問題，關於現金流盈虧平衡。有什麼方法可以考慮 23 年下半年的收入水平以達到現金流盈虧平衡數字嗎？

I'll let Liz take the second one. Let me do the retail footprint.

我會讓Liz拿第二個。讓我做零售足跡。

I don't -- we don't know how many stores we're going to end up with when the dust settles. Our objective is to repurpose about $50 million worth of run rate spending to deploy it more productively from a marketing perspective when the dust has settled and we are done restructuring the retail footprint domestically and internationally. Liz, do you want to do the capital?

我不 - 我們不知道當塵埃落定時我們最終會擁有多少家商店。我們的目標是重新利用價值約 5000 萬美元的運營支出，以便在塵埃落定並且我們完成國內和國際零售足蹟的重組後，從營銷的角度更有效地部署它。 LZ，你想做資本嗎？

The cash flow question and thinking about revenue. As we mentioned, that we are pulling all these different levers on the business right now. And so there's a lot of uncertainty about how these levers will bear out. And so we're not providing any full year guidance on revenue. But we did expect it to follow the seasonality in terms of revenue per quarter for prior years.

現金流問題和對收入的思考。正如我們所提到的，我們現在正在為業務拉動所有這些不同的槓桿。因此，這些槓桿將如何發揮作用存在很多不確定性。因此，我們沒有提供任何關於收入的全年指導。但我們確實預計它將遵循前幾年每季度收入的季節性。

Now that being said, from a cash flow perspective, we do have this north star goal that we are working to achieve, to achieve free cash flow breakeven by the end of the year, and we will be maintaining a cash balance of at least $1 billion. And what we have to do in order to do that is make sure that we continue to work hard to rightsize our cost, as Barry mentioned earlier, to align with the run rate of the business. So we will continue to do that in order to make sure that we achieve our goal of being breakeven free cash flow by the second half.

話雖如此，從現金流的角度來看，我們確實有我們正在努力實現的北極星目標，即在年底前實現自由現金流盈虧平衡，我們將保持至少 1 美元的現金餘額十億。為了做到這一點，我們必須做的是確保我們繼續努力調整我們的成本，正如巴里之前提到的，以與業務的運行速度保持一致。因此，我們將繼續這樣做，以確保我們在下半年實現盈虧平衡自由現金流的目標。

I would say, by the way, related to the retail footprint savings, not expecting any savings in FY '23 for the cost of rationalizing that distribution chain will mostly consume whatever savings we would otherwise realize. So the savings, if there are any, would happen in '24. In my nirvana, there wouldn't be any savings. We'd take that $50 million and we'd redeploy it in marketing to drive some incremental growth. The question is, can we find ways to spend that cost effectively using our LTV to CAC framework.

順便說一句，我想說的是，與零售足蹟的節省有關，不期望在 23 財年為合理化分銷鏈的成本節省任何成本，這將主要消耗我們本來可以實現的任何節省。因此，如果有任何節省，將在 24 年發生。在我的涅槃中，不會有任何積蓄。我們將拿出 5000 萬美元，並將其重新部署到營銷中，以推動一些增量增長。問題是，我們能否找到方法使用我們的 LTV 到 CAC 框架來有效地花費這筆費用。

Our next question will come from the line of Youssef Squali from Truist.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Truist 的 Youssef Squali。

I have a couple maybe for Barry. On the Amazon partnership that you announced yesterday, arguably, you guys can do a lot more with Amazon. I wanted to understand just how you think about that partnership right now. It seems like based on the type of products you're allowing Amazon to sell or you're selling through Amazon, it's maybe at the lower end of your good, better, best strategy. Is that kind of the way to think about your retail strategy broadly speaking? Or is it versus DTC? Or is it that just as you try to learn more about that strategy since you've basically pivoted from DTC to a broader retail strategy.

我有一對也許是給巴里的。關於你們昨天宣布的亞馬遜合作夥伴關係，可以說，你們可以在亞馬遜上做更多的事情。我想了解你現在是如何看待這種合作關係的。似乎基於您允許亞馬遜銷售的產品類型或您通過亞馬遜銷售的產品類型，它可能處於您的良好、更好、最佳策略的低端。從廣義上講，這是一種思考零售策略的方式嗎？還是它與 DTC 相比？或者是因為您基本上已經從 DTC 轉向更廣泛的零售策略，因此您試圖了解更多有關該策略的信息。

And then maybe can you just talk about the status of Precor within the company? What is the strategic rationale of keeping it?

然後也許您能談談 Precor 在公司內的地位嗎？保留它的戰略理由是什麼？

I'll let Liz handle the Precor. With respect to Amazon, I'd love to sell all of our Connected Fitness platforms on Amazon good, better, best, but they need to be -- at the moment, they need to have the ability to -- for our consumers to opt in to self-install. And that's not possible with Bike+ or Tread. And so until and unless that constraint changes where we complete a redesign cycle, you won't see those other platforms on Amazon.

我會讓 Liz 處理 Precor 的。關於亞馬遜，我很樂意在亞馬遜上銷售我們所有的 Connected Fitness 平台，好、更好、最好，但他們需要——目前，他們需要有能力——讓我們的消費者選擇自行安裝。而這對於 Bike+ 或 Tread 是不可能的。因此，除非該約束在我們完成重新設計週期時發生變化，否則您將不會在亞馬遜上看到其他平台。

How important will it be? We don't know. And we have modest assumptions in our forecast related to the impact of that business. I hope that has tremendous upside. But we won't know until we know. So the point here is to begin the process of learning. And then based on the learning, make smart operating decisions about how to leverage the learning into a profitable opportunity both for them and for us. And so that's the journey we're on. And same thing with FaaS and same thing with certified preowned, and same thing with the various flavors of digital app that we're going to be rolling out.

會有多重要？我們不知道。我們在預測中對該業務的影響做出了適度的假設。我希望這有巨大的好處。但在我們知道之前我們不會知道。所以這裡的重點是開始學習的過程。然後基於學習，就如何將學習轉化為對他們和我們都有利可圖的機會做出明智的運營決策。這就是我們正在進行的旅程。 FaaS 也是如此，經過認證的二手也是如此，我們將推出的各種風格的數字應用程序也是如此。

So it's your intuition to figure out what to test and then use the data to inform you about how to react to the test results you're seeing and take risk and move fast and don't be afraid to break stuff.

所以你的直覺是弄清楚要測試什麼，然後使用數據來告訴你如何對你看到的測試結果做出反應，承擔風險，快速行動，不要害怕破壞東西。

With regard to Precor, so there was a question there about Precor. We're continuing to assess our strategy for Precor. And it's been helpful for us as we've been building our Peloton commercial business. But with all the other things that we're working on, all of our supply chain work, the FaaS work that we've been doing, Precor hasn't -- the focus on Precor hasn't been our highest priority area. And we don't have much else to share at this point.

關於 Precor，有一個關於 Precor 的問題。我們將繼續評估我們對 Precor 的戰略。在我們建立 Peloton 商業業務時，這對我們很有幫助。但是，對於我們正在處理的所有其他事情，我們所有的供應鏈工作，我們一直在做的 FaaS 工作，Precor 沒有——對 Precor 的關注並不是我們最優先考慮的領域。在這一點上，我們沒有太多其他要分享的東西。

Yes, there have been other priorities that have consumed our focus and attention. I did say when I first joined, if it wasn't Connected Fitness related, it wasn't going to be part of our long-term strategy and strategy need to be about choice.

是的，還有其他優先事項消耗了我們的注意力和注意力。我剛加入時確實說過，如果它與 Connected Fitness 無關，它就不會成為我們長期戰略的一部分，而戰略需要與選擇有關。

All those things are true, Liz pointed out, has been very helpful to us. That acquisition has been very helpful to us with our commercial business. Our commercial business growing at about 35% year-over-year in terms of revenue. I'd like to lean into that, I'd like to accelerate that growth, making that a priority to make that happen. And in the fullness of time, we'll have more to say about Precor, particularly now that we have more bandwidth to be able to think about the role it plays in our long-term strategy.

Liz 指出，所有這些事情都是真實的，對我們非常有幫助。此次收購對我們的商業業務非常有幫助。就收入而言，我們的商業業務同比增長約 35%。我想依靠這一點，我想加速這種增長，把它作為實現這一目標的優先事項。隨著時間的推移，我們將對 Precor 有更多話要說，特別是現在我們有更多的帶寬來思考它在我們的長期戰略中所扮演的角色。

And our last question will come from the line of Arpine Kocharyan with UBS.

我們的最後一個問題將來自瑞銀的 Arpine Kocharyan。

In terms of your previously announced $800 million of cost saves, and I appreciate that you're probably looking at many moving parts to that. But just if you could sort of bring it all together and outline what's the latest on some of the buckets that you're looking at and overall cost savings you should be targeting sort of more medium term? Just trying to understand, have you identified any areas where that initial expectation of how much you could -- could be much bigger than thought?

就您之前宣布的 8 億美元成本節省而言，我很感激您可能正在為此考慮許多活動部分。但是，如果您可以將所有內容匯總並概述您正在考慮的一些存儲桶的最新情況以及總體成本節約，您應該將目標放在更中期？只是想了解一下，您是否確定了最初對您能做多少的期望可能比想像的要大得多的任何領域？

And then as a quick follow-up, now that you've done some testing of removing that upfront cost for the customer to have them pay higher subscription over time. Do you have a more kind of updated sense of what incremental demand opportunity that is for you, some numbers, if you could share, whatever you're looking at.

然後作為快速跟進，現在您已經完成了一些測試，以消除客戶的前期成本，讓他們隨著時間的推移支付更高的訂閱費用。您是否對適合您的增量需求機會有更新的認識，一些數字，如果您可以分享，無論您在看什麼。

So with regard to the cost savings, so it was a little bit hard to hear on the phone, but I believe you're referring to the restructuring plans that we laid out back in February, the $800 million, of which, $500 million is OpEx, $300 million is COGS. So we're actually tracking ahead of the $500 million OpEx target at this point. And we'll continue, like we said, to rightsize the cost structure of the business to align with the run rate of the business and whatever that requires.

所以關於節省成本，所以在電話裡有點難以聽到，但我相信你指的是我們在 2 月份制定的重組計劃，8 億美元，其中 5 億美元是運營支出，3 億美元是銷貨成本。因此，我們實際上正在跟踪 5 億美元的運營支出目標。正如我們所說，我們將繼續調整業務的成本結構，以符合業務的運行率和任何需要。

Some of the things that we've announced, the 3PL strategy shift is part of that cost savings opportunity. On COGS -- sorry, actually, the 3PL shift is more related to the COGS side, excuse me. So on COGS, our savings is coming from that, for the most part, and also some headcount reductions. For that $300 million piece, we said that, that was going to take longer and it will in part because we have the -- it's very dependent on inventory. And so that will take more time as we move through the inventory that we already have to be able to realize some of those COGS savings.

我們已經宣布的一些事情，3PL 戰略轉變是節省成本機會的一部分。在 COGS 上——對不起，實際上，3PL 轉變與 COGS 方面更相關，對不起。因此，在 COGS 上，我們的節省大部分來自於此，還有一些員工人數減少。對於那件價值 3 億美元的作品，我們說過，這將需要更長的時間，部分原因是我們擁有 - 它非常依賴庫存。因此，當我們處理庫存時，這將需要更多時間，我們已經必須能夠實現其中一些 COGS 節省。

It's a function of the way we account for our inventory.

這是我們核算庫存的方式的一個功能。

Yes.

是的。

And then I'm pretty sure I didn't understand the second piece of the question related to upfront cost and subscription.

然後我很確定我不理解與預付費用和訂閱相關的第二個問題。

Now that you've done some testing of removing that upfront cost and have the customer pay higher subscription, do you have a -- because last time you shared some sort of helpful numbers, do you have a more updated view or sense of what incremental demand that unlocks for you over time?

既然您已經完成了一些測試以消除該前期成本並讓客戶支付更高的訂閱費用，那麼您是否有 - 因為上次您分享了某種有用的數字，您是否有更新的觀點或感覺什麼增量隨著時間的推移為您解鎖的需求？

I see. This is related to the rental program with FaaS, I think?

我懂了。我認為這與 FaaS 的租賃計劃有關？

That's right. Yes.

這是正確的。是的。

Well, I think the -- what I said on the call earlier, I should reiterate here. We're currently at a run rate of about 40,000 units annually. And I think, a win for us would be something like 125,000, 150,000 a year. And so the opportunity and the challenge for us is to move it from where we are currently to that higher run rate. How big a challenge will that be? Well, we really haven't marketed it yet, and most people really don't know it exists. And when we do market it, it looks like it grows pretty fast.

好吧，我認為我之前在電話會議上所說的話，我應該在這裡重申。我們目前的年產量約為 40,000 台。而且我認為，對我們來說，每年贏得 125,000 到 150,000 個。因此，我們面臨的機遇和挑戰是將其從我們目前的位置轉移到更高的運行速度。那會有多大的挑戰？好吧，我們真的還沒有上市，而且大多數人真的不知道它的存在。當我們進行營銷時，它看起來增長得相當快。

And I'm hesitant to share any numbers because I really don't want it to be misleading. There are a couple of puts and calls, which make reading the data little dicey. We have changed price points. So the value prop is -- and so we detuned the value proposition for consumers, then we included Bike+, then we've removed Bike+, then we put -- now we're putting Bike+ back in. When we put Bike+ back in, we saw a 74% increase in volume over 8 weeks, week over week. But if we look back to the prior week, when we hadn't included Bike+ in the mix, it's only like a 35% increase over 9 weeks. Okay, but it's still a 35% increase over 9 weeks. And that's because we started to broaden the marketing of the FaaS program and create awareness for us. So really, the question is how high is the glass ceiling.

而且我不願分享任何數字，因為我真的不希望它具有誤導性。有幾個看跌期權和看漲期權，這使得讀取數據有點冒險。我們改變了價格點。所以價值支柱是——所以我們對消費者的價值主張進行了調整，然後我們包括了 Bike+，然後我們刪除了 Bike+，然後我們把——現在我們把 Bike+ 放回去了。當我們把 Bike+ 放回去時，我們看到在 8 週內，每週的銷量增長了 74%。但如果我們回顧前一周，當我們沒有將 Bike+ 納入組合時，9 週內僅增加了 35%。好的，但在 9 週內仍然增加了 35%。那是因為我們開始擴大 FaaS 計劃的營銷範圍並為我們創造意識。所以真的，問題是玻璃天花板有多高。

And I don't know how long it will take us to get there. My intuition is that we're on to something really important. The FaaS users, as I said, are younger, it skews slightly more female. And the biggest surprise for me, they're actually more engaged than our core users, which isn't what I expected since they had less of the financial investment in the product. Maybe that reflects the younger age demo, I'm not sure. And we'll have to see if that continues to scale as we broaden the market.

而且我不知道我們需要多長時間才能到達那裡。我的直覺是我們正在做一些非常重要的事情。正如我所說，FaaS 用戶更年輕，女性偏多一些。對我來說最大的驚喜是，他們實際上比我們的核心用戶更投入，這不是我所期望的，因為他們對產品的財務投資較少。也許這反映了年輕的演示，我不確定。隨著我們擴大市場，我們將不得不看看這是否會繼續擴大。

But it's quite clear that there's a big opportunity for us in the value conscious segment of the marketplace. And so we're going for it.

但很明顯，在市場的價值意識領域，我們有很大的機會。所以我們正在努力。

Thank you, everyone, for your time today. Hope you all have a good day.

謝謝大家，今天的時間。希望你們都有美好的一天。

You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

您現在可以斷開連接。大家，有一個美好的一天。