派樂騰 (PTON) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

為什麼重要

Peloton 為了降低公司的成本,近幾個月開始將製造、客戶服務和物流外包,也進一步裁員。市場關注公司一系列的樽節與零售合作,是否能改善營運。

故事背景

  • Peloton 的飛輪和跑步機的需求大幅下降,訂閱人數自 2020 年初以來增長了四倍後停滯不前。
  • 2021/4 因為產品事故,美國消費品安全委員會警告,進而 Peloton 開始召回器材 Tread+。
  • 公司改變了銷售模式,包括在 Dick's Sporting Goods 和 Amazon 平台銷售,以及在希爾頓品牌飯店中投放飛輪,另外也開始銷售新的划船機,並發展飛輪租用。

財報與電話會議

  • 營收 6.165 億美元,季減 23%,其中是已排除了 2,650 萬美元召回器材的退費儲備金。淨虧損 4.08 億美元,低於上季的 13 億美元虧損。
  • 連網健身(Connected Fitness)訂閱數 297 萬,主要是因為二手市場促使增長,本季增加 3,000 個訂閱。連網健身的每月平均淨流失率為 1.1 %,優於 6 月漲價時對流失率的預期。總會員人數,季減到 670 萬人,低於上季的 690 萬。
  • 毛利率 35.2%,其中連網健身的毛利率則為 -27%,這包含了召回器材,與相關物流費用的影響。隨著 FaaS 的持續增長,會伴隨毛利率下行壓力,因為公司會預先承擔交付的費用。此外,第三方零售方面,增加了相關的行銷費用。而庫存的存儲成本,預計將繼續下降。連網健身的毛利率,排除召回器材,毛利率是 -11.6%,較上季改善。

財測展望

會計年度 2023Q2(即 2022/10-12 月)

  • 整體毛利率為 36%。
  • 營收 7-7.25 億美元,年減 37%。彭博社:低於分析師預測的 8.69 億美元。
  • 連網健身訂閱數 300 萬,年增8%。

會計年度 FY2023

  • 期望下半年實現現金流損益平衡。
  • 預計庫存將全年下降。

他們怎麼說

  • Peloton 本季股東信:「在這種經濟環境下,並且考慮到年末假期銷售季,對整體業績的重要性和不確定性,我們有可能無法實現我們的預期。」
  • CFRA 分析師 Kenneth Leon 表示,公司改進產品銷售方式和向第三方零售擴張的努力,可能會促進未來的產品銷售。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Peloton Interactive First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    美好的一天,感謝您的支持。歡迎來到 Peloton Interactive 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的會議正在錄製中。我現在想把會議交給你今天的演講者,投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。請繼續。

  • Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

    Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

  • Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's fiscal first quarter conference call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy; and CFO, Liz Coddington. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities laws.

    早上好,歡迎來到 Peloton 的第一財季電話會議。加入今天的電話會議的是首席執行官 Barry McCarthy;和首席財務官 Liz Coddington。我們對您的問題的評論和答复僅反映了管理層截至今天的觀點,並將包括與我們業務相關的陳述,這些陳述是聯邦證券法下的前瞻性陳述。

  • Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website.

    由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性,實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響我們業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論,請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和今天的股東信函,兩者均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。

  • During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter.

    在本次電話會議中,我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的對賬。

  • I'll now turn the call over to the operator for the first question.

    對於第一個問題,我現在將電話轉給接線員。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Doug Anmuth from JPMorgan.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Barry, it's clear you've made progress on the cost structure and free cash flow loss. But how should we think about your plan to drive growth? And in particular, can you give us an update on the FaaS rental model and how that's progressing so far?

    巴里,很明顯,您在成本結構和自由現金流損失方面取得了進展。但是我們應該如何看待您推動增長的計劃呢?特別是,您能否向我們介紹一下 FaaS 租賃模式的最新情況以及迄今為止的進展情況?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Doug, thanks for the question. Well, look, our focus -- our job one is to ensure the viability of the business, which, a year ago, was in doubt, and I believe that is no longer the case. Because of our focus on driving -- rightsizing the cost structure, variablizing costs and driving the business towards our goal of breakeven free cash flow. Clearly, that has come at the expense of growth, and there will come a time when we begin to focus again on growth.

    道格,謝謝你的提問。好吧,看,我們的重點 - 我們的工作是確保業務的生存能力,一年前,這是值得懷疑的,我相信情況不再如此。因為我們專注於推動——調整成本結構、可變成本並推動業務朝著實現盈虧平衡自由現金流的目標前進。顯然,這是以犧牲增長為代價的,而且總有一天我們會再次開始關注增長。

  • With my leadership team, we have already made that transition. But the question is -- I'm not framing this question at the end of my letter this quarter, how fast will we grow, what will the margin structure of the business be? We'll begin to see the answers to those questions take shape later this year as we lean into a number of the strategies that we've already articulated, like Fitness-as-a-Service and Peloton certified preowned; and expansion into our third-party retail partners; and as we lean into growth in our commercial business; and as we lean into relaunching the digital app business to, and in pursuit of, that goal of 100 million users, which I talked about when I first joined the business.

    在我的領導團隊中,我們已經完成了這種轉變。但問題是——我不會在本季度的信函末尾提出這個問題,我們將增長多快,業務的利潤率結構是什麼?我們將在今年晚些時候開始看到這些問題的答案,因為我們傾向於採用我們已經闡明的一些策略,比如健身即服務和 Peloton 認證的二手;並擴展到我們的第三方零售合作夥伴;當我們傾向於商業業務的增長時;當我們傾向於重新啟動數字應用業務以實現並追求 1 億用戶的目標時,我在第一次加入該業務時就談到了這個目標。

  • As it relates to FaaS, it's growing really fast. About 1/3 was less of new sign-ups. We're doing an average over the last 2 weeks of about 175 sign-ups a day. We've only kind of -- and we've only just begun leaning in on the web to growth. There's still unanswered questions about whether or not it would be financially viable for us long term. But what I've learned from the early growth is that we absolutely have to figure out how to make it work for us because it's enormously popular with users, and it's -- there's a considerable incrementality to it. And we are attracting to our subscriber base, a demo which we have not previously been able to access, so it's expanding our TAM.

    因為它與 FaaS 相關,所以它發展得非常快。大約 1/3 的新註冊人數較少。在過去的兩周里,我們平均每天有大約 175 次註冊。我們只是——而且我們才剛剛開始依靠網絡來實現增長。關於它是否對我們長期而言在財務上可行,仍然存在懸而未決的問題。但我從早期增長中學到的是,我們絕對必須弄清楚如何讓它為我們工作,因為它在用戶中非常受歡迎,而且它有相當大的增量。我們正在吸引我們的用戶群,這是我們以前無法訪問的演示,因此它正在擴展我們的 TAM。

  • So we need to look at the underlying economics. And the way we do that is by focusing on the monthly price, which drives churn. And we need to understand more about what percentage of those, over time, will exercise the option to buy out the bike. And probably, we will adjust, over time, the buyer options. Liz, anything you want to add to my summary with respect to FaaS?

    所以我們需要看看潛在的經濟學。我們這樣做的方式是關注推動客戶流失的月度價格。我們需要更多地了解隨著時間的推移,其中有多少百分比將行使購買自行車的選擇權。我們可能會隨著時間的推移調整買方的選擇。 Liz,您想在我的 FaaS 總結中添加什麼內容嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • No, I think -- the only thing that I will say is that we -- something about FaaS that's important to note, if you think about the growth of the business, is that the revenue profile and gross margin profile was a little bit different from our core business. And so as FaaS grows, we'll see that the revenue will take longer to be -- we're not getting the benefit of the purchase of the Connected Fitness hardware in the period because we'll get the rental income from that over time. So just highlighting that for everyone.

    不,我認為——我唯一要說的是我們——關於 FaaS,如果你考慮業務的增長,需要注意的一點是收入概況和毛利率概況有點不同來自我們的核心業務。因此,隨著 FaaS 的增長,我們將看到收入將需要更長的時間——在此期間我們不會從購買 Connected Fitness 硬件中受益,因為隨著時間的推移,我們會從中獲得租金收入.所以只是為每個人強調這一點。

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • And is there any kind of -- I know it's still early, but any kind of target or outlook on what you think FaaS could represent as a part of sales over time?

    有沒有什麼——我知道現在還為時過早,但是你認為 FaaS 可以隨著時間的推移作為銷售的一部分代表什麼目標或前景?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Reminder -- you mean of the user base?

    提醒——你的意思是用戶群?

  • Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

    Douglas Till Anmuth - MD

  • Or just new subscribers?

    還是只是新訂戶?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • 30% or more of new subscribers, more than that on a net basis, because there's effectively no churn across the installed base. So the percentages of gross versus net would be quite a bit different.

    30% 或更多的新用戶,超過了淨用戶,因為安裝基礎實際上沒有流失。因此,總額與淨額的百分比會有很大不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Edward Yruma from Piper Sandler.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Piper Sandler 的 Edward Yruma。

  • Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • I want to rotate a little bit towards this construct of growth. Two vectors, though: the app, I guess, which I think you guys noted you saw some softer results; and then maybe any insight into your view, Barry, on some of the newer modalities like Guide and Row.

    我想稍微轉向這種增長結構。不過,有兩個向量:我猜是應用程序,我想你們注意到你看到了一些更柔和的結果;然後可能對您的觀點有任何見解,巴里,關於一些較新的模式,如 Guide 和 Row。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Sorry, Guide and what was the other one?

    對不起,嚮導,另一個是什麼?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • Row.

    排。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • And Row.

    和行。

  • Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

    Edward James Yruma - MD & Senior Research Analyst

  • Row.

    排。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Yes. Coming back to FaaS for a moment, Doug, 1 additional comment. In my nirvana would be that we see attractive payback in somewhere between a year and 18 months. I think the product is viable, but not as a [dragger] for 2 years. And so when I talk about the financial viability of the product, it's sort of through that lens. But we're thinking about how we tweak price and buyout option and, directionally, monthly churn, if that's helpful.

    是的。回到 FaaS 一會兒,Doug,還有 1 條評論。在我的必殺技中,我們會在一年到 18 個月之間看到有吸引力的回報。我認為該產品是可行的,但在 2 年內不會成為 [拖拉機]。因此,當我談論產品的財務可行性時,它有點通過那個鏡頭。但我們正在考慮如何調整價格和買斷選項,以及定向每月流失率,如果這有幫助的話。

  • [In terms] of growth in the digital app, we deemphasized it a little bit. Our strategy is to relaunch the digital app in the new year. It will be a different price value opportunity than it is currently. There'll be a tiered pricing associated with our content strategy -- a new content strategy. We're chasing the 100 million digital app users. The current product has never really grown bigger than 1 million.

    [就]數字應用程序的增長而言,我們稍微淡化了它。我們的策略是在新的一年重新推出數字應用程序。這將是一個與目前不同的價格價值機會。將有一個與我們的內容策略相關的分層定價——一種新的內容策略。我們正在追逐 1 億數字應用用戶。目前的產品從未真正增長到超過 100 萬。

  • We -- the overarching strategy here is to gain access to competitive Connected Fitness hardware platforms. About half the users, paid users of our digital app, at one time or another use, are Connected Fitness content on someone else's hardware. We've never actually marketed that use case. We're going to lean into it. The digital app has kind of come at the end of our marketing funnel. We're going to move it up to the top with a premium offer and try to lean into that growth opportunity.

    我們——這裡的總體戰略是獲得具有競爭力的 Connected Fitness 硬件平台。大約一半的用戶,即我們數字應用程序的付費用戶,在一次或另一次使用中,是其他人硬件上的 Connected Fitness 內容。我們從未真正推銷過該用例。我們將深入其中。數字應用程序已經出現在我們營銷漏斗的末端。我們將通過溢價將其提升至最高水平,並嘗試抓住這一增長機會。

  • In terms of Guide. Customer FaaS scores are really high. The unaided brand awareness is really low relative to other products, like 17. And the purchasing [sense] scores are higher or higher than any of the other products in our product line based on some research I saw overnight. So it's an opportunity we haven't really leaned into. I don't think we've quite figured out how to market it effectively. So it's doing okay, but it's not doing nearly as well as you would think it would do based on the metrics I just described.

    在指南方面。客戶 FaaS 分數非常高。相對於其他產品,例如 17,獨立的品牌知名度確實很低。根據我在一夜之間看到的一些研究,購買 [感覺] 分數高於或高於我們產品線中的任何其他產品。所以這是一個我們還沒有真正抓住的機會。我認為我們還沒有完全弄清楚如何有效地推銷它。所以它做得很好,但它並沒有你想像的那麼好,基於我剛剛描述的指標。

  • With respect to Row. I think Tom Cortese and his team can be justifiably proud in having reinvented the Row category, like they reinvented the Bike category with the Connected Fitness content. The good news and the bad news about Row is, for this fiscal year, we expect to be inventory-constrained. And they have more demand than we will have units to sell, and that we're working to address those issues.

    關於行。我認為 Tom Cortese 和他的團隊可以為重新發明 Row 類別而感到自豪,就像他們通過 Connected Fitness 內容重新發明了 Bike 類別一樣。關於 Row 的好消息和壞消息是,在本財年,我們預計庫存會受到限制。他們的需求比我們出售的單位要多,我們正在努力解決這些問題。

  • But at least, for the moment, it's been critically quite well-received. And we have just rolled it out through all of our showrooms as of yesterday, but in a limited number, like [16]. And so I expect the demand for Row to continue to grow as we increase people's exposure and the opportunity to get on and try it and see what's (inaudible) about it.

    但至少,就目前而言,它受到了廣泛好評。截至昨天,我們剛剛在我們所有的陳列室中推出了它,但數量有限,例如 [16]。因此,我預計隨著我們增加人們的曝光率以及繼續嘗試並了解它(聽不清)的機會,對 Row 的需求將繼續增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Justin Post from Bank of America.

    我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Justin Post。

  • Justin Post - MD

    Justin Post - MD

  • Great. Can we talk a little bit about the kind of the 2Q sub guide? I think it's 30,000 subs, and you've got kind of retail kicking in, obviously, some rowers, and then it's holiday promotion time. How do you put that in context of your overall growth plans? What does it mean for the year?

    偉大的。我們能談談 2Q 子指南的類型嗎?我認為有 30,000 名訂閱者,而且很明顯,你已經開始了零售業,一些賽艇運動員,然後是假日促銷時間。您如何將其置於您的整體增長計劃中?對這一年意味著什麼?

  • And how are you thinking about the kind of reopening and macro challenges being maybe different this year than in future years? Maybe put all that in context. And then one quick one on the Fitness-as-a-Service. Is that contributing to slightly elevated churn? Or is it still kind of immaterial at this point?

    您如何看待今年可能與未來幾年不同的重新開放和宏觀挑戰?也許把所有這些放在上下文中。然後是關於健身即服務的一個快速的。這會導致客戶流失率略微升高嗎?或者在這一點上它仍然是無關緊要的?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Let me just do the churn piece. So it does have higher churn, but it's immaterial. It would be like a basis point. So I think we can ignore the effect of FaaS one on churn for the foreseeable future.

    讓我只做攪動的部分。所以它確實有更高的流失率,但這並不重要。這就像一個基點。因此,我認為在可預見的未來,我們可以忽略 FaaS 對客戶流失的影響。

  • The sub growth during holiday is paced by the decrease in the spending, which is quite substantial on a year-over-year basis and on a sequential basis. We want to spend more, could -- we could have significantly more growth.

    假期期間的次增長是由支出的減少所帶動的,這在同比和環比的基礎上相當可觀。我們想花更多的錢,可以——我們可以有更多的增長。

  • I guess the other comment I want to make about growth, and then I'll turn it over to Liz is, it's not very ambitious target. And there's good news and there's bad news in that. And then it is we'd like it to be higher, and we'll see what happens. But the good news is, there ought to be limited downtime in that number. And from a cash flow perspective, I think you're on the right side of that equation (inaudible) purposes.

    我想我想對增長發表的另一條評論,然後我會把它交給 Liz,這不是一個非常雄心勃勃的目標。有好消息,也有壞消息。然後我們希望它更高,我們會看看會發生什麼。但好消息是,這個數字的停機時間應該是有限的。從現金流的角度來看,我認為您處於該等式(聽不清)目的的右側。

  • Liz, anything you want to add?

    lz,有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • Yes. I was just going to say that we have seen some research that indicates that the economy is a headwind for us as it is for many other companies. And that is certainly having an impact on near-term Connected Fitness hardware demand.

    是的。我只是想說,我們已經看到一些研究表明,經濟對我們來說是一個逆風,就像對許多其他公司一樣。這肯定會對近期的 Connected Fitness 硬件需求產生影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Eric Sheridan from Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

  • Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

    Eric James Sheridan - Research Analyst

  • Maybe following up on Justin's on retail. Just how should we be thinking about the contribution from some of the new retail partners beyond just the December quarter? And how you think they can help evolve the distribution strategy in light of what may remain sort of dampened end-demand environment short term, which you're widening out the distribution narrative around the name? How should we think about those countervailing factors in terms of supporting growth as we turn the calendar into calendar 2023?

    也許跟進賈斯汀的零售。除了 12 月季度之外,我們應該如何考慮一些新零售合作夥伴的貢獻?鑑於短期內可能仍然受到抑制的最終需求環境,您認為他們如何幫助發展分銷策略,您正在擴大圍繞名稱的分銷敘述?當我們將日曆變成 2023 年日曆時,我們應該如何考慮支持增長的那些抵消因素?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Let me say we have some of the same questions. We've broadened our retail strategy because we felt it was important to be where our customers are. But the only way to know how successful this strategy will be is to actually lean into it and see what happens. And then based on what we're learning, flex the business model in order to capitalize on the successes and minimize any losses. It comes at the cost of some margin.

    讓我說我們有一些相同的問題。我們擴大了零售戰略,因為我們認為客戶所在的位置很重要。但要知道這個策略有多成功,唯一的方法就是真正深入了解它,看看會發生什麼。然後根據我們正在學習的知識,調整商業模式,以利用成功並儘量減少任何損失。這是以犧牲一些利潤為代價的。

  • How has it gone so far? Well, Amazon has outperformed our expectations for sure. We just launched DICK'S Sporting Goods. We have high expectations for it, but it remains to be seen how it will perform over time.

    到目前為止進展如何?好吧,亞馬遜的表現肯定超出了我們的預期。我們剛剛推出了 DICK'S Sporting Goods。我們對它寄予厚望,但隨著時間的推移它將如何表現還有待觀察。

  • Anything you want to add, Liz, to that?

    麗茲,你有什麼要補充的嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • No. I think that covered it. But I do want to go back to the prior question that got cut off. I apologize, the fire alarm went off for a second in the middle of our call, which is unfortunate. So going back to that question around our guidance forecast. I was talking a little bit about the economy and creating a headwind for us and for many other businesses right now.

    不,我認為這涵蓋了它。但我確實想回到之前被打斷的問題。抱歉,在我們通話的過程中,火警警報響了一秒鐘,這很不幸。所以回到我們指導預測的那個問題。我正在談論經濟,並為我們和許多其他企業製造逆風。

  • I do want to say that we do have confidence that our Q2 guidance forecast incorporates the latest on macroeconomic trends. And to Barry's point, we do have the ability to grow faster if we wanted to. But because we are trying to balance on delivering on our cash flow goals that we have not been overly aggressive in our guidance forecast for Q2.

    我確實想說,我們確實有信心,我們的第二季度指導預測包含了最新的宏觀經濟趨勢。在巴里看來,如果我們願意,我們確實有能力更快地成長。但是因為我們正在努力平衡實現我們的現金流目標,所以我們在第二季度的指導預測中並沒有過於激進。

  • I do want to point out that, again, FaaS and -- Fitness-as-a-Service and our CPO, which we -- has been a strength for us, and we're continuing to grow FaaS, CPO. We may or may not be able to do in Q2, we'll see. But we also witnessed secondary market activations being another opportunity for us to grow subscribers as well.

    我確實想再次指出,FaaS 和 - 健身即服務和我們的 CPO,我們 - 一直是我們的優勢,我們正在繼續發展 FaaS,CPO。我們可能會也可能不會在第二季度做到這一點,我們拭目以待。但我們也目睹了二級市場的激活,這也是我們增加訂戶的另一個機會。

  • In the context of the overall year, we are still not providing any sort of full year guidance on revenue or sub. But what we said last quarter still holds in that we do expect revenue for the year to resemble the seasonality of fiscal '22 in terms of revenue per quarter, if that helps the folks with their modeling.

    在全年的背景下,我們仍然沒有提供任何關於收入或分項的全年指導。但是我們上個季度所說的仍然存在,我們確實預計今年的收入在每季度收入方麵類似於 22 財年的季節性,如果這有助於人們進行建模的話。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Just comment on -- I have 1 additional comment. So Liz touched on the growth in secondary market active subscription activation. That has grown significantly over the last year, and I expect it to be a source of operating leverage for us. And we're talking about how we can lean into that ecosystem and ensure that it's healthy and viable.

    只需評論——我還有 1 條額外評論。因此,Liz 談到了二級市場活躍訂閱激活的增長。這在過去一年中顯著增長,我預計它將成為我們運營槓桿的來源。我們正在討論如何融入該生態系統並確保其健康可行。

  • So (inaudible). This is someone who owned a bike, it became a potted plant in their home. They sold it in the secondary market. Someone bought it and had -- this someone activates the subscription and becomes a monthly subscriber into (inaudible).

    所以(聽不清)。這是一個擁有自行車的人,它變成了他們家的盆栽。他們在二級市場上出售。有人購買並擁有它——有人激活訂閱並成為每月訂閱者(聽不清)。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next question will come from the line of Lauren Schenk from Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Lauren Schenk。

  • Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

    Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你能聽到我嗎?

  • Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

    Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

  • Yes. Go ahead, Lauren.

    是的。來吧,勞倫。

  • Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

    Lauren Elizabeth Cassel Schenk - Equity Analyst

  • On the Connected Fitness gross margin, still negative 12%, even excluding the recall impact. I guess with the restructuring changes largely behind us, what needs to happen to get that back into positive territory? And what's the rough time line for that?

    Connected Fitness 的毛利率仍為負 12%,即使不包括召回影響。我想隨著重組的變化在很大程度上已經過去,需要做什麼才能讓它回到積極的領域?什麼是粗略的時間表?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • So you're correct. First of all, yes, you're right. If we adjust for the Tread+ recall, we would have been at a negative 11.6% gross margin. We are expecting to see increases -- sorry, first of all, I want to highlight, before I even start talking about (inaudible), I want to highlight the improvement that we've seen in our gross margin quarter-over-quarter from Q4. So it's a tremendous improvement.

    所以你是對的。首先,是的,你是對的。如果我們針對 Tread+ 召回進行調整,我們的毛利率將達到 11.6% 的負數。我們預計會看到增長——抱歉,首先,我想強調一下,在我開始談論(聽不清)之前,我想強調一下我們在毛利率中看到的季度環比改善Q4。所以這是一個巨大的進步。

  • In Q2, our overall gross margin, we're expecting to be around 36%. And then for Connected Fitness, we're not guiding to that, but we are expecting to see continued improvement as we improve our middle mile and logistics costs and thus for final mile. We'll see those continue to improve over time.

    在第二季度,我們的整體毛利率預計為 36% 左右。然後對於 Connected Fitness,我們並沒有為此提供指導,但我們希望看到持續改進,因為我們改善了中間一英里和物流成本,從而改善了最後一英里。隨著時間的推移,我們將看到這些繼續改進。

  • One thing -- things that you put pressure on our gross margin, though, are things like FaaS, for example. So as FaaS continues to grow, that will put pressure because of the fact that we do take the expense for the delivery cost of the bike upfront. And then also the economics of third-party retail are such that they do put pressure on our gross margins as we consider the marketing expense associated with those channels as contra revenue.

    有一件事——你對我們的毛利率施加壓力的事情是像 FaaS 這樣的事情,例如。因此,隨著 FaaS 的持續增長,這將帶來壓力,因為我們確實預先承擔了自行車的交付成本。此外,第三方零售的經濟學也確實給我們的毛利率帶來了壓力,因為我們將與這些渠道相關的營銷費用視為對沖收入。

  • So the key thing that I want to point out is that we are managing our business towards generating an improvement in gross margin and then also overall generating positive cash flow and positive adjusted EBITDA. So overall, we're -- we want to look at gross margin, but we need to also realize that some of these programs have just a different cost structure and profile. And it may bear out that we have some impact to gross margin, but we see a benefit elsewhere in the P&L, if that makes any sense.

    因此,我想指出的關鍵是,我們正在管理我們的業務,以提高毛利率,然後總體上產生正現金流和正調整 EBITDA。所以總的來說,我們 - 我們想看看毛利率,但我們也需要意識到其中一些項目的成本結構和概況不同。並且可能證明我們對毛利率有一些影響,但我們在損益表的其他地方看到了好處,如果這有任何意義的話。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • If I could just tease out 1 additional nuance. Could you comment on how long you think it takes for the cost reduction in final mile and middle mile freight, those kinds of things that find their way through our balance sheet and into the P&L?

    如果我能梳理出 1 個額外的細微差別。您能否評論一下您認為降低最後一英里和中間一英里運費的成本需要多長時間,這些東西會通過我們的資產負債表並進入損益表?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • I think this is something that is going to take a little bit of time, but we are seeing the benefit every quarter gaining more and more traction. So I think probably by -- I don't want to give us the specifics. But hopefully, by the end of the year, we should be in a much better spot on that.

    我認為這需要一點時間,但我們看到每個季度的收益越來越大。所以我想可能是——我不想給我們提供細節。但希望到今年年底,我們應該在這方面處於一個更好的位置。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Just trying to tease out the average pricing versus [LIFO]. The only point is that as the economy and freight costs decline and we restructure our middle mile and last mile, because of the way we account for our inventory, it's going to take a while for those benefits to find their way into the P&L. We have the cash benefit, but we don't see the P&L benefit.

    只是試圖梳理出平均定價與 [LIFO]。唯一的一點是,隨著經濟和貨運成本的下降以及我們重組中間一英里和最後一英里的結構,由於我們計算庫存的方式,這些收益需要一段時間才能進入損益表。我們有現金收益,但我們看不到損益收益。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • Yes. The point is that, like the freight cost, the one we bought some of that inventory on, that was more expensive. That will have to work its way through our inventory. And then the other piece is that our storage costs will continue to decline as we lap that inventory around. So those things will also be benefits as we lower our inventory position. That will be ongoing through the end of the year and probably into FY '24 as well.

    是的。關鍵是,就像運費一樣,我們購買了一些庫存的那個更貴。這必須通過我們的庫存來實現。然後另一件事是,隨著我們圍繞庫存,我們的存儲成本將繼續下降。因此,當我們降低庫存頭寸時,這些東西也將是有益的。這將持續到今年年底,也可能會持續到 24 財年。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • And our storage costs have been very significant.

    而且我們的存儲成本非常高。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Shweta Khajuria from Evercore ISI.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

  • Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

    Shweta R. Khajuria - Analyst

  • How much -- how does the accounting for these third-party retail partnerships actually work? So whether it's DICK'S Sporting Goods or Amazon or Hilton, how should we think about how you're accounting for in terms of subscribers revenue? And then, Liz, you also mentioned there is a contra revenue aspect of it. So it would be great to understand that.

    多少——這些第三方零售合作夥伴的會計實際上是如何運作的?那麼無論是 DICK'S Sporting Goods 還是亞馬遜或希爾頓,我們應該如何考慮您在訂閱者收入方面的核算方式?然後,Liz,你還提到它有一個相反的收入方面。所以很高興能理解這一點。

  • And then the second is, Barry, if you could talk about how the leadership team and the company is organized now for growth. So how are growth initiatives internally managed as the leadership team reports to you? And which segments are focused on for long-term growth?

    然後第二個是,巴里,如果你能談談領導團隊和公司現在是如何組織起來以實現增長的。那麼,當領導團隊向您報告時,如何在內部管理增長計劃?哪些細分市場專注於長期增長?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • So as far as the third-party retailers go, we do have a couple of different models that we use to work with them. So in the case of Amazon, we have a wholesale model. So Amazon will buy the inventory from us and then they will resell it, and our revenue recognition will come at the time that we actually sell the inventory to them rather than when they sell it to the customer.

    因此,就第三方零售商而言,我們確實有幾種不同的模型可以用來與他們合作。所以就亞馬遜而言,我們有批發模式。所以亞馬遜會從我們那裡購買庫存,然後他們會轉售,我們的收入確認將在我們實際向他們出售庫存時而不是在他們將庫存出售給客戶時進行。

  • And the subscriber will come even later. So they have to sell the bike to the subscriber. It has to get delivered and then the sub has to activate. So think about that being a longer time frame from when the inventory gets sold to when we actually see the subscriber activation. There will be a disconnect in timing there.

    訂閱者甚至會更晚。所以他們必須把自行車賣給訂戶。它必須交付,然後子必須激活。因此,請考慮從庫存售出到我們實際看到訂戶激活的較長時間範圍。那裡的時間安排會脫節。

  • With DICK'S, we have some wholesale types of model, but we also have a drop-ship model. So that's the case where somebody walks into a DICK's Sporting Goods, orders a bike or tread, and then they send a signal to us, and we then fulfill the order and deliver it to the customer. So in that case, we recognize the revenue at the time of delivery, like we do in our regular web sales. And so -- and the activation will be similar timing, we expect, as from when they get the -- receive their Bike, when we recognize revenue and we get the subscription. So there is a couple of different models going on there.

    對於 DICK'S,我們有一些批發類型的模型,但我們也有一個直銷模型。例如,有人走進 DICK's Sporting Goods,訂購自行車或踏板,然後他們向我們發送信號,然後我們完成訂單並將其交付給客戶。因此,在這種情況下,我們會在交付時確認收入,就像我們在常規網絡銷售中所做的那樣。因此 - 我們預計,激活時間將相似,從他們獲得自行車時開始,當我們確認收入並獲得訂閱時。所以那裡有幾個不同的模型。

  • But as these different models, they're out over time, they're small right now, but they could have an impact on how we model out -- how we see the subscription growth -- revenue growth in comparison to the Connected Fitness growth.

    但是,由於這些不同的模型,它們會隨著時間的推移而消失,它們現在還很小,但它們可能會影響我們的建模方式——我們如何看待訂閱增長——與 Connected Fitness 增長相比的收入增長.

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • And then there was a part of the question about contra revenue, Liz.

    Liz,還有一部分關於對沖收入的問題。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • Yes. Well, it's -- basically, what happens is with -- we do have some marketing expenses that we -- that are in our agreements with -- particularly with Amazon. The way that those show up in our financials as -- is a reduction to revenue. And so that is -- it's just a different model than -- it doesn't show up in the marketing expense line.

    是的。嗯,這是 - 基本上,發生的事情是 - 我們確實有一些營銷費用 - 我們 - 在我們的協議中 - 特別是與亞馬遜的協議。這些在我們的財務中出現的方式是減少收入。這就是——它只是一個不同的模型——它沒有出現在營銷費用項目中。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Thanks for that. With respect to the leadership team and growth, I lead the effort. There's virtually no piece of the business that we haven't reorganized in some form or fashion. And there's been a substantial change in the composition of the leadership team.

    感謝那。關於領導團隊和成長,我領導了這項工作。我們幾乎沒有以某種形式或方式重組過的業務。領導團隊的組成也發生了重大變化。

  • Last quarter, we restructured our approach to the market. Some people left the business as a result, and we're in the process of leading the search for a new Head of Marketing. In the interim, the marketing team is reporting to me. And I'm spending a considerable amount of time focused on how we grow the business, how we work cross-functionally when we rolled out our various initiatives.

    上個季度,我們調整了我們的市場方法。一些人因此離開了公司,我們正在尋找新的營銷主管。在此期間,營銷團隊正在向我匯報。我花費大量時間專注於我們如何發展業務,以及在推出各種計劃時如何跨職能開展工作。

  • I'm quite proud of the team's performance with respect to the launch of Amazon, by way of example. There's virtually no function group in the business that wasn't touched by the complexity of that launch. This is equally complicated. FaaS is equally complicated. Certified preowned is also quite complicated. So it's about executing with precision and speed and risk-taking.

    例如,我為團隊在推出亞馬遜方面的表現感到非常自豪。業務中幾乎沒有一個職能部門沒有受到此次發布的複雜性的影響。這同樣複雜。 FaaS 同樣複雜。認證二手也相當複雜。因此,這是關於以精確、快速和冒險的方式執行。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Deepak Mathivanan from Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Deepak Mathivanan。

  • Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst

    Deepak Mathivanan - Research Analyst

  • So first, Barry, churn, after making the adjustments for Canada, is around like 1.2%. It's certainly better than 1Q, but are you comfortable with these levels as you think about the next, say, 18 to 24 months? Can you give some color on the profile of customers that are kind of churning right now?

    首先,巴里的流失率在對加拿大進行調整後約為 1.2%。它肯定比 1Q 好,但是當你考慮下一個,比如 18 到 24 個月時,你對這些水平感到滿意嗎?您能否為現在正在流失的客戶資料添加一些顏色?

  • And then the second question, a little more strategic one. The channel expansion and distribution makes a lot of sense. But curious if we have explored opportunities to kind of leverage Peloton brand and content that you have for something in-person, maybe either under a franchise model or through kind of partnerships with other in-person fitness studios? And I would love to hear your thoughts on that.

    然後是第二個問題,更具戰略意義。渠道擴張和分配意義重大。但是很好奇我們是否已經探索了利用 Peloton 品牌和內容的機會,例如在特許經營模式下或通過與其他面對面健身工作室的合作夥伴關係?我很想听聽你對此的看法。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • I think the first part of the question, Deepak, was -- any color on who's churning? The short answer is no. Churn is one of the aspects of the business, along with Tom Cortese's Product Group and Jen Cotter's content team don't focus on. And the reason I don't focus on it is because it works well, and it's not even remotely broken. And there is no operating leverage to be had in my trying to say reduce by a couple of 4 basis points. It's just not going to happen.

    我認為問題的第一部分,Deepak,是——關於誰在攪動的任何顏色?最簡潔的答案是不。流失是業務的一個方面,與 Tom Cortese 的產品組和 Jen Cotter 的內容團隊一起不關注。我不關注它的原因是因為它運行良好,而且它甚至沒有被遠程破壞。在我試圖說減少幾個 4 個基點時,沒有任何經營槓桿。它只是不會發生。

  • What I am focused on with Tom's team, with Jen's team is in improving the user experience, primarily by leaning into personalization. We've made that a large focus area. There are a number of improvements that have already happened and are in process, both on your screen on a Connected Fitness device and in the digital app. My belief is that, with a more deeply personalized experience, we will see -- we will continue to see improvements in engagement. Engagement improved versus pre-COVID period, about -- just shy of 20% in the current quarter.

    我與 Tom 的團隊和 Jen 的團隊一起關注的是改善用戶體驗,主要是通過個性化。我們已經把它作為一個大的重點領域。無論是在 Connected Fitness 設備的屏幕上還是在數字應用程序中,都已經進行了許多改進並且正在進行中。我的信念是,通過更深入的個性化體驗,我們將看到——我們將繼續看到參與度的提高。與 COVID 之前的時期相比,參與度有所提高,本季度大約 - 略低於 20%。

  • So I don't mean to signal that we have engagement issues, but I think it can be better still. And if it is better still, I think we will grow faster at a lower cost because we will have more organic growth because we'll have more delighted subscribers then. We believe that because that was the phenomenon we saw at Spotify, and that was the phenomenon we saw at Netflix. So this is my comments on churn.

    因此,我並不是說我們存在參與問題,但我認為它還可以做得更好。如果情況更好,我認為我們會以更低的成本增長得更快,因為我們會有更多的有機增長,因為那時我們會有更多滿意的訂戶。我們相信,因為這是我們在 Spotify 看到的現象,也是我們在 Netflix 看到的現象。這就是我對流失的評論。

  • And as it relates to leveraging the brand through in-person fitness, I spend quite a bit of time thinking about this. And this is a use case that I'm trying to attack with our digital app. And I think doing it that way is the better go-to-market strategy than trying to negotiate revenue-sharing split with other commercial businesses and having to pay what I think would be considerably higher. We used to rightsize the consequence of it becoming a commercial application.

    由於它與通過面對面的健身來利用品牌有關,我花了很多時間思考這個問題。這是我試圖用我們的數字應用程序攻擊的一個用例。而且我認為這樣做是更好的進入市場策略,而不是試圖與其他商業企業談判收入分成,並且不得不支付我認為會高得多的費用。我們過去常常調整它成為商業應用程序的後果。

  • So I'd rather sell to you and have you take your digital app wherever you want to take it to engage in our content. It could be your home. It could be the gym. It could be your friend's house. It could be outside while you're running. That's a much larger TAM for us and has a better margin structure for us.

    所以我寧願賣給你,讓你把你的數字應用帶到任何你想帶它去參與我們的內容的地方。它可能是你的家。可能是健身房。它可能是你朋友的房子。你跑步的時候它可能在外面。這對我們來說是一個更大的 TAM,並且對我們來說具有更好的利潤結構。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from the line of Ron Josey from Citi.

    我們的下一個問題將來自花旗的 Ron Josey。

  • Ronald Victor Josey - MD

    Ronald Victor Josey - MD

  • Barry, I wanted to maybe walk back to turn around here and just about the free cash flow guidance. I think the letter talked about reaching near breakeven in '23. So if you could just help us a little bit more on the investments and also what makes you feel better about beating that 1-year time line and beating the goal here to getting to breakeven? So questions on free cash flow and breakeven in the back half.

    巴里,我想也許回到這裡轉身,只是關於自由現金流的指導。我認為這封信談到了在 23 年接近盈虧平衡。因此,如果您能在投資方面為我們提供更多幫助,以及什麼讓您對超越 1 年時間線並實現盈虧平衡的目標感覺更好?因此,關於自由現金流和後半部分盈虧平衡的問題。

  • And then any update on the ad campaign? I think we saw it in mid-September. Obviously, we know the guidance here for the holiday quarter. But talking -- just curious about the receptivity of the campaign.

    然後廣告活動的任何更新?我想我們是在 9 月中旬看到的。顯然,我們知道假日季的指南。但是談論 - 只是對競選活動的接受度感到好奇。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • I'm going to ask Liz to talk about the free cash flow guidance. And then I might ask you to repeat the second part of the question. I had a hard time hearing it, I'm sorry.

    我要請 Liz 談談自由現金流指導。然後我可能會要求你重複問題的第二部分。我很難聽到它,我很抱歉。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • So while we haven't specifically guided to a free cash flow number at all, we talked about our goal of reaching free cash flow at breakeven or near breakeven by the second -- for the second half of the year. And we remain on track to being able to achieve that goal. It's not certain. There's always some risk. It's not a guaranteed outcome.

    因此,雖然我們根本沒有具體指導自由現金流量數字,但我們談到了我們的目標,即在今年下半年達到盈虧平衡或接近盈虧平衡的自由現金流。我們仍有望實現這一目標。這不確定。總有一些風險。這不是一個保證的結果。

  • But you can see in our -- this quarter, we reduced our cash burn significantly from the prior quarter and the quarter before that. So we are making a tremendous amount of progress towards that goal, and we continue to remain focused on it. So that's -- there's -- that's our goal, and we're continuing to maintain that we'll be able to deliver on it.

    但是您可以在我們的 - 本季度看到,我們的現金消耗比上一季度和之前的季度顯著減少。因此,我們正在朝著這個目標取得巨大進展,並且我們將繼續專注於它。所以這就是我們的目標,我們將繼續堅持我們將能夠實現它。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • I would add then a couple of things. One is, I've grown increasingly confident in our ability to forecast free cash flow based on our recent performance over the last few quarters. So Liz and her team have done quite a good job there, and we've made considerable progress. So that's point one.

    我會補充幾件事。一是,我對我們根據過去幾個季度的近期表現預測自由現金流的能力越來越有信心。所以 Liz 和她的團隊在這方面做得很好,我們取得了相當大的進展。這就是第一點。

  • Point two is a little color on cash flow. A quarter or 2 ago, I think there was the impression that because we have a lot of inventory, at least in the first half of the year, we've got a big tailwind as we liquidated that inventory and didn't pay to replace it.

    第二點是現金流的一點顏色。一兩個季度前,我認為因為我們有很多庫存,至少在今年上半年,我們有很大的順風,因為我們清理了庫存並且沒有支付更換費用它。

  • That is true, but we also had a big headwind, and that was the settlement payments that we negotiated with our suppliers when we realized that we had contractually committed to more inventory than we had understood back in the March time frame. And those 2 kind of netted out across the entire year.

    這是真的,但我們也遇到了很大的阻力,這就是我們與供應商談判的結算付款,當時我們意識到我們在合同中承諾的庫存比我們在 3 月份的時間框架內所理解的要多。而這兩種在整個一年中都被淘汰了。

  • I think there's a net benefit in the order of $86 million, something like that. So it's entirely immaterial to the business, and I just want to make sure that, that nuance was well understood.

    我認為有大約 8600 萬美元的淨收益,類似的。所以這對業務來說完全無關緊要,我只是想確保,這種細微差別得到了很好的理解。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • And that is certainly true this quarter, for sure, in Q1, that any inventory benefits that you see with inventory balances coming down is offset by supplier settlements for the quarter, more than offset.

    本季度肯定是這樣,當然,在第一季度,您看到的任何庫存收益隨著庫存餘額的下降都會被本季度的供應商結算所抵消,而不僅僅是抵消。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • The last point I want to make is with respect to restructuring. We recently eliminated roughly 500 heads in order to complete our rightsizing of the cost structure of the business. So we are done now. And in my humble opinion, there are no more heads to be taken out of the business.

    我想說的最後一點是關於重組。我們最近裁減了大約 500 名員工,以完成對業務成本結構的合理調整。所以我們現在完成了。而且以我的拙見,沒有更多的人可以被淘汰出局。

  • And so from a cash flow perspective, we're going to meet our performance. The rest of the business needs to perform as we expect the business to perform, meaning our working capital dynamics need to be more or less aligned with our forecast. Our growth needs to be more or less aligned with our forecast. Cost for inventory needs to be aligned with our forecast.

    因此,從現金流的角度來看,我們將達到我們的表現。其餘業務需要按照我們預期的方式執行,這意味著我們的營運資金動態需要或多或少與我們的預測保持一致。我們的增長需要或多或少與我們的預測保持一致。庫存成本需要與我們的預測保持一致。

  • We're not going to get there by taking additional heads out of the business and reducing operating expenses. And I just want to be -- I want to be clear with investors about that. I want to be clear with our employees about that. We are done. This is the go-forward team.

    我們不會通過裁員和減少運營費用來實現這一目標。我只想成為 - 我想與投資者明確這一點。我想與我們的員工明確這一點。我們完了。這是前進的團隊。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • The last thing that I will caveat to that, just for completeness, Barry, is that we are still working through our first-party retail showrooms. And so we are -- that is one of those processes that just takes time to get out of some of these showroom leases. And so that will be the one ongoing piece that we will still have through the end of fiscal '23 and likely into fiscal '24 as well.

    我要提醒的最後一件事是,為了完整起見,巴里,我們仍在通過我們的第一方零售展廳工作。所以我們是 - 這是那些需要時間來擺脫這些展廳租約的過程之一。因此,這將是我們在 23 財年結束時仍將擁有的一項正在進行的工作,也可能會在 24 財年結束。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • All already announced (inaudible) thanks for the clarity.

    所有已經宣布(聽不清)感謝您的清晰度。

  • Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

    Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

  • And Ron, could you repeat your question about the advertising campaign? We didn't understand it.

    羅恩,你能重複一下你關於廣告活動的問題嗎?我們不明白。

  • Ronald Victor Josey - MD

    Ronald Victor Josey - MD

  • Yes. I appreciate the answers on the free cash flow. Just on the ad campaign, I think we saw it started -- at least, a new campaign started mid-September. And understood we have guidance here for the holiday quarter. But just curious on the receptivity of this recent campaign that we're seeing ads for the broader Peloton family of products. So any insights there would be helpful.

    是的。我很欣賞關於自由現金流的答案。就廣告活動而言,我認為我們已經看到了它的開始——至少,一個新的活動在 9 月中旬開始了。並且了解我們在這里為假日季提供指導。但只是好奇最近這個活動的接受度,我們看到了更廣泛的 Peloton 系列產品的廣告。因此,那裡的任何見解都會有所幫助。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Well, let's think about it in terms of purchase intent. One, purchase intent for the brand is up slightly everywhere, except for Germany, where it's taken a slight hit because of the advertising campaign or not, hard to say, honestly. Second point I would make about advertising generally and not the campaign specifically is that, in the current market environment, our dollars are going a lot farther than they were a few months ago because the advertising market has softened considerably. And so we were able to acquire more media impressions for dollars spent than we were expecting coming into the holiday season. It means have you seen how that translates into growth, but it is the first tailwind we've seen in that marketplace in the long term.

    好吧,讓我們從購買意圖的角度來考慮。第一,該品牌的購買意向在所有地方都略有上升,除了德國,它是否因為廣告活動而受到輕微打擊,老實說,很難說。我對廣告的第二點要說的是,在當前的市場環境下,我們的收入比幾個月前要高得多,因為廣告市場已經大幅疲軟。因此,我們能夠獲得比我們預期進入假日季節更多的媒體印象。這意味著您是否看到了這如何轉化為增長,但從長遠來看,這是我們在該市場看到的第一個順風。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question will come from line of Aneesha Sherman from Bernstein.

    我們的下一個問題將來自 Bernstein 的 Aneesha Sherman。

  • Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

    Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

  • Yes. So Liz, you gave some great color on the hardware gross margins and the trajectory. I wonder if you could talk about the sub gross margin? And where do you think this could go as it scales up? And what -- can you give some color on where it was on an underlying basis? It seems like you had some one-off costs on music and things like that. So where are we underlying? And then where could it go as it scales up?

    是的。所以 Liz,你對硬件毛利率和軌跡做了一些很好的說明。我想知道你能不能談談子毛利率?你認為隨著規模的擴大,它會走向何方?還有什麼——你能在底層基礎上給出一些顏色嗎?好像你在音樂和類似的東西上有了一些一次性的費用。那麼我們在哪裡呢?然後隨著規模的擴大,它會去哪裡?

  • And then I have another question on inventory. It was down $100 million. Obviously, you have a lot more distribution points and FaaS, et cetera. Is $100 million a good run rate? I mean is that what you're kind of modeling through the rest of the year as you work through your existing inventory?

    然後我有另一個關於庫存的問題。它減少了1億美元。顯然,你有更多的分發點和 FaaS 等等。 1億美元是一個好的運行率嗎?我的意思是,當您處理現有庫存時,您在今年餘下的時間裡正在模擬什麼?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • I'll take the part of the question around subscription margin first. So we did see some pressure on subscription margin, particularly in this quarter, down a bit from Q4, in line roughly with the prior year. There are a couple of drivers of that. One of them was just higher music licensing reserves for minimum guarantees, and that's related to just our subscriber growth and reserving for those.

    我將首先回答關於訂閱保證金的部分問題。因此,我們確實看到了訂閱利潤率的一些壓力,尤其是在本季度,比第四季度略有下降,與去年大致持平。有幾個驅動因素。其中之一就是針對最低保證的更高音樂許可準備金,這與我們的訂戶增長和為這些準備金有關。

  • We also had some elevated stock-based comp costs for Q1, and that was specifically related to our equity repricing and vesting acceleration. And so we don't expect any further pressure on subscription margin going forward. But we wouldn't expect in the very near term for it to go up substantially from where it's at right now.

    我們在第一季度也有一些基於股票的補償成本升高,這與我們的股票重新定價和歸屬加速特別相關。因此,我們預計未來認購保證金不會有任何進一步的壓力。但我們預計在短期內它不會從現在的位置大幅上漲。

  • The other question about inventory. So we do expect inventory to decline throughout the year. I don't necessarily have a view of how much it's going to decline quarter-by-quarter. One thing I do want to point out is we do have some inventory that we need to buy, specifically related to like the rower and -- but we will see continued sequential declines in inventory as we work through it over the course of the year and beyond.

    關於庫存的另一個問題。因此,我們確實預計庫存將全年下降。我不一定知道它會逐季度下降多少。我確實想指出的一件事是,我們確實有一些庫存需要購買,特別是與划船者有關的庫存,但是隨著我們在一年中的工作,我們將看到庫存持續連續下降,並且超過。

  • Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

    Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And 1 follow-up. Do you have any color on what the subs margin was ex those one-offs this quarter?

    好的。和 1 次跟進。您對本季度那些一次性的訂閱保證金有什麼看法嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • I couldn't quite -- I'm sorry, could you repeat that? I couldn't quite hear the first part of that.

    我不能——對不起,你能再說一遍嗎?我完全聽不見第一部分。

  • Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

    Aneesha Sherman - Research Analyst

  • Sorry. I just had a quick clarification on the subs point. Do you have any color on where the subs margin would have been ex those one-off costs this quarter?

    對不起。我剛剛對 subs 點進行了快速澄清。您對本季度的一次性成本之前的訂閱利潤有什麼看法嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • I don't have a specific number for you, but it's not -- it's -- say we're going to -- that it came down from where it was in Q4, you could say. It's hard to give you exact percentage of how much of that is related to the minimum guarantees in each piece. But I would say that where we're at now is a reasonable rough approximation of where we'll be for a while.

    我沒有給你一個具體的數字,但它不是 - 它是 - 說我們將要 - 它從第四季度的水平下降,你可以說。很難給你確切的百分比,其中有多少與每件作品的最低保證有關。但我想說的是,我們現在所處的位置是我們一段時間內所處位置的合理粗略近似值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Mario Lu from Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的馬里奧·盧。

  • X. Lu - Research Analyst

    X. Lu - Research Analyst

  • Just wanted to follow up on the comment you made earlier in terms of revenue seasonality for the rest of the year. I just wanted to confirm, is that related to total revenue or just Connected Fitness revenue for the rest of the year?

    只是想跟進您之前就今年剩餘時間的收入季節性發表的評論。我只是想確認一下,這與今年剩餘時間的總收入有關還是僅與 Connected Fitness 收入有關?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • That would be total revenue.

    那將是總收入。

  • X. Lu - Research Analyst

    X. Lu - Research Analyst

  • Got it. And then, Barry, you mentioned half of the digital subs currently is likely using somebody else's hardware. I understand some of the classes right now on Peloton Guides in the future, Row classes may be gated to only owners of Peloton devices. Can you talk a bit about this potential strategy of gating classes? And if that could be a significant uplift to convert digital subs over time?

    知道了。然後,巴里,你提到目前有一半的數字潛艇可能使用其他人的硬件。我現在了解未來 Peloton Guides 上的一些課程,Row 課程可能僅限於 Peloton 設備的所有者。你能談談這個潛在的門控策略嗎?如果隨著時間的推移轉換數字潛艇會顯著提升嗎?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • I'm going to hold off on talking about the digital strategy until we roll it out, other than to say that it will have a freemium component and there will be gated Guides, yes.

    在我們推出之前,我將暫緩談論數字戰略,除了說它將有一個免費增值組件並且會有門控指南,是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our last question will come from the line of Andrew Boone from JMP Securities.

    我們的最後一個問題將來自 JMP 證券公司的 Andrew Boone。

  • Andrew M. Boone - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Andrew M. Boone - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • On the guide, it feels like OpEx declines are starting to slow as we think about next quarter. Can you provide a little bit more detail around R&D and G&A? Understood headcount is kind of stable, but any help in terms of other items that may be involved there? And then can you talk about the consumer reception to self-assembly and how that's gone?

    在指南中,當我們考慮下個季度時,感覺 OpEx 的下降開始放緩。你能提供更多關於研發和 G&A 的細節嗎?了解員工人數是穩定的,但對可能涉及的其他項目有任何幫助嗎?然後你能談談消費者對自組裝的接受程度嗎?那是怎麼回事?

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Sorry, the consumer reaction to what?

    對不起,消費者對什麼反應?

  • Andrew M. Boone - MD & Equity Research Analyst

    Andrew M. Boone - MD & Equity Research Analyst

  • Self-assembly.

    自組裝。

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • Self-assembly. So with regard to the OpEx -- we -- some of the changes that we made regarding that reduction in force, those were Q2 events. So we will see some declines in both G&A and R&D over the coming quarters. What you'll see in Q2, and that's reflected in our adjusted EBITDA guidance, is the fact that we will be spending more quarter-over-quarter on marketing as part of the holiday kind of promotion timing.

    自組裝。因此,關於運營支出——我們——我們對減少力量所做的一些改變,這些都是第二季度的事件。因此,我們將在未來幾個季度看到 G&A 和 R&D 的一些下降。您將在第二季度看到,這反映在我們調整後的 EBITDA 指導中,我們將在營銷上花費更多的季度,作為假日促銷時機的一部分。

  • So that's -- so to the extent that you're looking at the guidance and trying to back into what that implies for G&A and R&D, there will still be some declines there, offset by some higher spending in the quarter for sales and marketing. I hope that addresses that question.

    所以這就是——所以就你正在查看指導並試圖回到這對 G&A 和 R&D 的含義而言,仍然會有一些下降,被本季度銷售和營銷支出的增加所抵消。我希望能解決這個問題。

  • W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

    W. Barry McCarthy - CEO, President & Director

  • Let me say, longer-term, G&A just got to come down as a percent of revenue, just to be clear. It's structurally broken currently. I can see the path to fixing it. There will be some additional spending along the way. From an IT perspective, there are a number of things that need to be fixed. And when they're fixed, they become the road map towards significant cost reduction. And then do you want to, Liz, address that (inaudible) comment on self-assembly?

    讓我說,從長遠來看,G&A 佔收入的百分比只會下降,只是為了清楚。目前它在結構上被破壞了。我可以看到修復它的路徑。一路上會有一些額外的支出。從 IT 的角度來看,有許多事情需要解決。當它們被修復時,它們成為顯著降低成本的路線圖。然後,Liz,你想解決關於自組裝的(聽不清)評論嗎?

  • Liz Coddington - CFO

    Liz Coddington - CFO

  • No. The -- I haven't seen much about self-assembly, aside from the fact that there hasn't been a lot of complaints about that. So to the extent that customers are not complaining about it, it's a good thing. And yes, so that will be the -- we are getting good star ratings on Amazon. So that, again, gives confidence that the self-assembly is working.

    不。除了沒有太多關於自組裝的抱怨之外,我還沒有看到太多關於自組裝的信息。因此,在客戶沒有抱怨的情況下,這是一件好事。是的,這就是——我們在亞馬遜上獲得了很好的星級評分。因此,這再次讓人相信自組裝正在發揮作用。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And that's all the time we have for Q&A today, and this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

    這就是我們今天的問答時間,這確實結束了今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。大家,有一個美好的一天。

  • Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

    Peter Coleman Stabler - SVP of IR

  • Thank you very much.

    非常感謝。