派樂騰 (PTON) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Peloton Interactive 4Q '23 Earnings Call.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Peloton Interactive '23 年第四季度財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please be advised today's conference being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Stabler, please go ahead.

請注意今天的會議正在錄製。我現在想把會議交給今天的發言人彼得·斯塔布勒（Peter Stabler），請繼續。

Thank you, Ken. Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year-end Conference Call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy; and CFO, Liz Coddington. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

謝謝你，肯。早上好，歡迎參加 Peloton 第四季度和財年末電話會議。加入今天電話會議的還有首席執行官巴里·麥卡錫 (Barry McCarthy)；和首席財務官莉茲·科丁頓。我們對您問題的評論和答复僅反映管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的聲明，這些聲明屬於聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter. I'll now turn the call over to the operator for our first question.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。現在我將把電話轉給接線員來回答我們的第一個問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Ron Josey with Citi.

我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I want to, Barry, talk about 2 things. I think in the letter, you talked about an uptick in sales in the last 8 weeks. And I want to understand a little bit more what you think is driving this? Is this the result of just new brand spend or maybe seasonality coming back? And in the letter, you also talked about free cash flow being positive, expected to be in the back half of '24, just talk to us about the drivers that will lead to that positive free cash flow and the confidence in that new metric.

巴里，我想談談兩件事。我想您在信中談到了過去 8 週銷售額的上升。我想更多地了解您認為是什麼推動了這一點？這是新品牌支出的結果還是季節性回歸的結果？在信中，您還談到自由現金流為正，預計將在 24 年下半年實現，請與我們談談導致自由現金流為正的驅動因素以及對新指標的信心。

I don't know the answer to the first question, Ron, in which it did -- if I did, we could lean into it and try to leverage it. I imagine there's some macro forces at play. There's some seasonality at play. We just don't have enough insight into the cause and effect to give you a thoughtful answer. But the trend seems to be holding, now it's for how long and what would the slope of the line be, I don't know the answer to that either, wish I did.

我不知道第一個問題的答案，羅恩，但它確實如此——如果我知道，我們可以依靠它並嘗試利用它。我想有一些宏觀力量在起作用。有一些季節性在起作用。我們只是對因果關係沒有足夠的了解，無法給您一個深思熟慮的答案。但趨勢似乎正在持續，現在是持續多長時間以及線的斜率是多少，我也不知道答案，但願我知道。

As it relates to free cash flow in the back half of the year, we -- our forecast is really a tale of two cities. The second half of the year looks quite a bit different than the first half. We don't have very aggressive growth assumptions in my view, but we need to achieve the growth we're forecasting in order to be able to generate the financial performance that we're forecasting.

由於它與今年下半年的自由現金流有關，我們的預測實際上是兩個城市的故事。下半年看起來與上半年有很大不同。在我看來，我們沒有非常激進的增長假設，但我們需要實現我們預測的增長，以便能夠產生我們預測的財務業績。

If we do those things, the metrics in the last quarter of the year, in particular, are pretty stellar. It's double-digit revenue growth, it's 40-plus percent gross margins. It's positive adjusted EBITDA, it's positive free cash flow, we'd all be ecstatic about that kind of performance if we can achieve it.

如果我們做到這些事情，那麼今年最後一個季度的指標將非常出色。這是兩位數的收入增長，40% 以上的毛利率。這是正的調整後 EBITDA，這是正的自由現金流，如果我們能夠實現這樣的業績，我們都會感到欣喜若狂。

We've been reasonably good at forecasting our financial performance relative to our ability, at least in recent quarters to forecast the growth in subs and Connected Fitness unit sales. And I think there's more upward bias in the forecast than not, but it's hard to say. And one of the reasons I think that is because the -- in the -- towards the close of the letter, I make mention of a number of new initiatives that we're working on.

相對於我們的能力，我們相當擅長預測我們的財務業績，至少在最近幾個季度預測潛艇和 Connected Fitness 單位銷售的增長。我認為預測中存在更多的向上偏差，但這很難說。我認為原因之一是因為在這封信的結尾處，我提到了我們正在研究的一些新舉措。

And there are a handful, and I'm confident that we will land them and we haven't built any upside into the plan associated with those things now. We haven't landed them. So there's still uncertainty, and I can't talk about them until we do. But if we do, it adds even more certainty on the back half of the year.

有一些，我相信我們會實現它們，但我們現在還沒有在與這些事情相關的計劃中建立任何優勢。我們還沒有讓他們著陸。所以仍然存在不確定性，在我們討論之前我不能談論它們。但如果我們這樣做，就會為今年下半年增添更多確定性。

I was just going to add one additional thing about the free cash flow, which I think Barry did mention in the letter which is we are getting into a much more normalized inventory position than we have been -- than we were last year. And so we are buying more inventory, particularly for our Bike and Tread product. And we're going to have to spend in advance of holiday to build up some of that inventory for the holiday season.

我只是想補充一件事關於自由現金流，我認為巴里在信中確實提到了這一點，那就是我們的庫存狀況比去年更加正常化。因此，我們正在購買更多庫存，特別是我們的自行車和胎面產品。我們將不得不在假期前花費一些錢來為假期季節建立一些庫存。

We also have our seasonality in our marketing spend. And those 2 things put a bit more cash flow pressure on the front half of the year rather than the back half of the year, just the timing of those. So I wanted -- in relation to our hardware sales, so I wanted to call that out as well.

我們的營銷支出也有季節性。這兩件事給上半年而不是下半年帶來了更大的現金流壓力，只是時間安排而已。所以我想——與我們的硬件銷售有關，所以我也想指出這一點。

One more comment, if I could. I'm sorry to be someone winded run. We certainly have had our fair share of unanticipated surprises and not all of them helpful to the business, Seatpost being the latest example, and the Dish Settlement being another example. I don't know how many more of those unwelcome surprises there are in our future, but it seems to me we have to be getting closer to the end of that story than we are at the beginning.

如果可以的話，再發表一條評論。我很抱歉有人跑得氣喘吁籲。我們當然也遇到過一些意想不到的驚喜，但並非所有驚喜都對業務有幫助，Seatpost 是最新的例子，Dish Settlement 是另一個例子。我不知道我們的未來還會有多少不受歡迎的驚喜，但在我看來，我們必須比故事開始時更接近故事的結局。

Our next question comes from Doug Anmuth of JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的道格·安穆斯。

Barry, you're about 3 months into the brand relaunch, though I know this has also come during a seasonally lighter period, I was hoping you could talk more just about the progress that you've seen here and how marketing could evolve in the first half of your fiscal year as you head towards the holidays.

巴里，您的品牌重新推出已經大約 3 個月了，儘管我知道這也是在季節性淡季期間發生的，我希望您能更多地談談您在這裡看到的進展以及營銷如何在該領域發展當您即將迎來假期時，您的財政年度上半年。

A couple of thoughts, one very high level. The team -- investors have often heard me speak about the importance of talent density that's never more true than it is in this instance, not to create more pressure for our CMO and the marketing team already exist for them. They have done just a spectacular job with the relaunch, the creative has been nothing short of amazing, and the creative that's going to follow is even more spectacular.

幾個想法，一個非常高的水平。團隊——投資者經常聽我談論人才密度的重要性，在這種情況下這一點尤其正確，不要給我們的首席營銷官和已經存在的營銷團隊帶來更大的壓力。他們在重新發布方面做得非常出色，創意簡直令人驚嘆，而接下來的創意則更加精彩。

And the early indications are that we're achieving the objectives that they had set for the business, which is just to attract a younger audience. So we've seen a tremendous increase in engagement with Gen Z by way of example, we're capturing people earlier in their fitness journey than we ever had before. So anytime, anywhere, any place, message is absolutely landing. And the last objective was to remind people that and particularly with the launch of the app, that it's more than just a stationary Bike company. And that message is also finding traction. So lots of reasons to be enthusiastic about where we're going.

早期跡象表明，我們正在實現他們為業務設定的目標，即吸引年輕受眾。例如，我們看到 Z 世代的參與度大幅增加，我們比以往任何時候都更早地捕捉到人們的健身之旅。所以隨時隨地，任何地點，消息絕對落地。最後一個目標是提醒人們，特別是隨著該應用程序的推出，它不僅僅是一家固定自行車公司。這一信息也受到關注。有很多理由讓我們對我們要去的地方充滿熱情。

And the one -- and the last point I want to make is in reference to the 2 co-branding deals that we've already announced, one with Liverpool and yesterday, University of Michigan. It's very clear from our conversations with those brands, both very highly regarded and other inbound traffic that we've had, which has been significant, the rest of the world regards the Peloton brand, very highly and is sought after as a partner, and that affords us the opportunity to capitalize on that, and you'll be hearing us talk about that ad nauseam as the year unfolds.

我想說的最後一點是我們已經宣布的兩筆聯合品牌交易，其中一項是與利物浦的合作，以及昨天與密歇根大學的合作。從我們與這些品牌的對話中可以清楚地看出，這些品牌都受到高度重視，我們擁有的其他入境流量也非常重要，世界其他地區非常重視 Peloton 品牌，並作為合作夥伴受到追捧，並且這為我們提供了利用這一點的機會，隨著這一年的展開，你會聽到我們談論這一令人作嘔的話題。

Our next question comes from Justin Post with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的賈斯汀·波斯特。

Barry, in the letter and on the call already, you've mentioned some growth initiatives that you're excited about. I think we've already talked about Fitness-as-a-Service and some of the retail initiatives, anything new or something you would call out that you're really enthusiastic about for the year?

巴里，在信中和電話中，您已經提到了一些令您感到興奮的增長計劃。我想我們已經討論了健身即服務和一些零售舉措，有什麼新的東西或者你認為今年你真正熱衷的東西嗎？

And then second, on churn. Can you help us quantify how much of the 80,000, I guess you'd say, inactivations at the end of the quarter, maybe related to the Seatposts? And as people receive them, do they get back on? Are you seeing any positive progress this quarter as people receive the seats?

其次，關於流失。您能幫我們量化一下，我猜您會說，本季度末的 80,000 起失活事件中，有多少可能與座桿有關？當人們收到它們時，他們會回來嗎？隨著人們獲得席位，本季度您是否看到任何積極進展？

I'll take the first part, and then I'll ask Liz to take the churn part of the question. With respect to growth is, Justin, we had articulated 1.5 years ago, a good, better, best strategy to make the service increasingly accessible to new users at the reintroduction of app. It was a component of that strategy. You mentioned Fitness-as-a-Service. We started that a year ago with 50,000 subs, about $45 million in revenue. I think we'll grow it by more than 70% on a year-over-year basis if the current trends continue.

我將回答第一部分，然後我將請 Liz 回答問題的流失部分。關於增長，賈斯汀，我們在 1.5 年前就闡明了一個好的、更好的、最佳的策略，以便在重新引入應用程序時使新用戶能夠更容易地使用該服務。這是該戰略的一個組成部分。您提到了健身即服務。一年前，我們開始做這項工作，當時有 50,000 名訂閱者，收入約為 4500 萬美元。我認為，如果目前的趨勢持續下去，我們的同比增長將超過 70%。

Churn was up slightly in the quarter, but I think that was related to the Seatpost (inaudible) and it's likely to come back down. Certified preowned has worked extremely well for us. And we're seeing good momentum in that side of the business as well. So enormously excited about those initiatives. In the current year, International will be a growth opportunity for us. It was not this past year because this past year, the objective was to reduce the operating losses of that business, which we did to the tune of about $40 million.

本季度客戶流失率略有上升，但我認為這與座桿有關（聽不清），而且很可能會回落。經過認證的二手車對我們來說效果非常好。我們也看到了這方面業務的良好勢頭。對這些舉措非常興奮。今年，國際化對我們來說將是一個增長的機會。不是去年，因為去年的目標是減少該業務的運營損失，我們的目標是減少約 4000 萬美元。

But you've seen us leaning aggressively into growth in existing markets like Germany, like Canada, like the U.K. with new product launches and co-branded partnerships like we did with Liverpool by way of an example. And then you'll see us in the U.S. by way of growth initiatives, replicating that co-branding experience.

但你已經看到我們積極致力於在德國、加拿大、英國等現有市場的增長，推出新產品和建立聯合品牌合作夥伴關係，就像我們與利物浦所做的那樣。然後你會看到我們在美國通過增長計劃複製這種聯合品牌體驗。

Components of those deals will be, I think, have a couple of common characteristics. They will be multiyear, they'll be global, they'll be exclusive. There will be collaboration on content creation and there will be co-marketing and social media components. And if we execute them well, we will benefit enormously from the association of our brand with their brand. And our members will benefit enormously from the content creation that happens as a result of those deals. When all of them combined, I think, will contribute to an acceleration in our growth.

我認為，這些交易的組成部分將具有一些共同特徵。它們將是多年的、全球性的、獨一無二的。將在內容創作方面進行合作，並將有聯合營銷和社交媒體部分。如果我們執行得好，我們將從我們的品牌與他們的品牌的關聯中受益匪淺。我們的會員將從這些交易所產生的內容創作中受益匪淺。我認為，當所有這些結合起來時，將有助於加速我們的增長。

Okay. I'll go ahead and take the question on churn. So when -- as we mentioned last quarter, in Q4, we did expect to see a model -- a modest sequential increase in our churn, and that's consistent with the seasonal trends that we tend to see over the summer. If you look at our legacy churn metric, that 1.4% that we had for Q4 was about 10 basis points, roughly higher than we expected.

好的。我將繼續回答有關客戶流失的問題。因此，正如我們上個季度提到的，在第四季度，我們確實預計會看到一個模型——我們的客戶流失率會出現適度的連續增長，這與我們在夏季傾向於看到的季節性趨勢一致。如果您查看我們的傳統客戶流失指標，就會發現第四季度的 1.4% 約為 10 個基點，大致高於我們的預期。

We expected it to be about 1.3%. And then what we did see in the -- related to the Seatpost Recall, was that we did see our churn rate increase a bit in May and June relative to April. And that's a typical seasonality for us. So we do believe that, that was related to the Seatpost Recall.

我們預計約為 1.3%。然後我們在與座桿召回相關的事件中看到的是，我們確實看到 5 月和 6 月的客戶流失率相對於 4 月有所增加。這對我們來說是典型的季節性。所以我們確實相信，這與座桿召回有關。

Now when you're referring to the 80,000, you're referring to the paused subscribers. And those folks are now in our new metric, considered churn and you can see that uptick from around the 50,000 to 55,000 range that we've had more typically to about 80,000 and that took us to a 1.8% churn rate when we consider those paused subscribers as churn. We did expect paused subscribers to go up a bit seasonally in Q4 because of just the seasonality and people at the time when more people pause their membership. But the outsized increase, it's hard to quantify exactly, we do believe it's related to the Seatpost Recall.

現在，當您提到 80,000 名訂閱者時，您指的是已暫停的訂閱者。這些人現在處於我們的新指標中，被視為流失，您可以看到，他們的流失率從我們通常的50,000 到55,000 左右上升到80,000 左右，當我們考慮那些暫停的人時，流失率達到1.8 %訂閱者流失。我們確實預計，由於季節性因素以及更多人暫停會員資格時的人數，第四季度暫停的訂閱者數量會出現季節性增長。但增幅過大，很難準確量化，我們確實相信這與座桿召回有關。

Now in Q1, I think it's really important because we're guiding to this new metric that we kind of anchor on that 1.8% that we shared in the letter. We do expect churn to come down substantially from that 1.8% because we don't expect to see an increase in paused subscribers like we did in Q4. We likely will see some level of decrease, but we're not really forecasting a huge decrease in paused. For part of the reason that subscribers can pause for up to 3 months, people started pausing in kind of the June -- end of May, June time frame. And we also know that some people are still awaiting their Seatpost.

現在在第一季度，我認為這非常重要，因為我們正在指導這個新指標，我們將其錨定在我們在信中分享的 1.8% 上。我們確實預計流失率將從 1.8% 大幅下降，因為我們預計暫停訂閱用戶不會像第四季度那樣增加。我們可能會看到一定程度的減少，但我們並沒有真正預測暫停會大幅減少。由於訂閱者可以暫停長達 3 個月的部分原因，人們開始在 6 月 - 5 月底、6 月的時間範圍內暫停。我們還知道有些人仍在等待他們的座桿。

They should all receive them by the end of September. But we don't know that people will immediately un-pause the moment that they get their Seatpost. But it is really important to understand that just by virtue of not having that paused subscriber base increase, our churn should come down to more like the 1.4% range and perhaps even a little bit better than that. We'll also expect to see a little bit of benefit from seasonality as well.

他們應該會在九月底之前收到它們。但我們不知道人們在拿到座桿後是否會立即取消暫停。但重要的是要明白，僅僅憑藉沒有暫停的用戶基數增長，我們的流失率應該會下降到更像 1.4% 的範圍，甚至可能比這更好一點。我們還期望看到季節性帶來一些好處。

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的埃里克·謝里丹。

I wonder if I could get some of your more updated thoughts on the Digital app strategy. What are some of your key learnings as you continue to position that strategy? And how should we be thinking about some of the investments you want to make to sort of drive growth against your longer-term goals in terms of building the subscriber base around the Digital app?

我想知道我是否可以了解您對數字應用策略的一些最新想法。在繼續制定該戰略的過程中，您學到了哪些重要經驗？我們應該如何考慮您想要進行的一些投資，以推動增長，實現圍繞數字應用程序建立用戶群的長期目標？

Well, look, we've had to date about slightly in excess of 900,000 people download the app and about 600,000 of those roughly are new to the platform. So we need to continue to lean into creating awareness and driving trial. With respect to the paid app, we're seeing a higher percentage of App Plus users than we had anticipated, which is a good thing. How do we continue to find success with the app?

嗯，看，迄今為止，已經有超過 900,000 人下載了該應用程序，其中大約 600,000 人是該平台的新用戶。因此，我們需要繼續致力於提高意識和推動試驗。就付費應用程序而言，我們看到 App Plus 用戶的比例高於我們的預期，這是一件好事。我們如何繼續通過該應用程序取得成功？

We need to continue to allocate marketing spending towards it. And there's this constant tension, do we spend it on Connected Fitness units or do we allocate to a larger portion of the slices of the pie to spending in the app and see how the needs of the business develop as the year unfolds relative to our plan.

我們需要繼續為此分配營銷支出。這種持續的緊張關係是，我們是否將其花在互聯健身單元上，或者我們是否將大部分資金分配給應用程序上的支出，並看看隨著這一年的發展，業務需求相對於我們的計劃如何發展。

Secondly, we need to ensure that the app interface continues to evolve in ways that make it compelling and easy to access and engaging for members, right? So it was originally designed to be an [agent] to a CFU membership, not as a freestanding app. So we continue to evolve the design and interaction. Lastly, we need to continue our current investment in personalization, both for the app and on consoles for Connected Fitness unit.

其次，我們需要確保應用程序界面不斷發展，使其具有吸引力，易於會員訪問和參與，對吧？因此，它最初被設計為 CFU 會員的[代理]，而不是作為一個獨立的應用程序。因此，我們不斷改進設計和交互。最後，我們需要繼續當前對個性化的投資，包括應用程序和 Connected Fitness 設備的控制台。

So that great content that we create is discoverable by members who would enjoy it if they only knew that it exists with same challenge that Spotify is facing, challenge that Netflix-based -- the better we are at personalization, we're engaging the user experience will be, the stickier the user experience will be, the lower the churn will be, the more satisfied the members will be, the more organic growth we'll have, the lower the (inaudible) will have, the higher the LTV. So that's the playbook for success.

因此，我們創建的精彩內容可以被會員發現，如果他們知道它的存在，他們就會喜歡它，而Spotify 面臨著同樣的挑戰，基於Netflix 的挑戰——我們在個性化方面做得越好，我們就越能吸引用戶體驗會更好，用戶體驗越粘，流失率越低，會員越滿意，我們的有機增長就越多，（聽不清）越低，生命週期價值越高。這就是成功的秘訣。

Our next question comes from Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的安德魯·布恩 (Andrew Boone)。

The 1Q '23 gross profit margin guidance seems to imply that Connected Fitness margins are very near to breakeven. As you guys think about pricing and bringing down the price of the Tread and the Row, is the right way to think about managing hardware gross profit margins breakeven? Or how do you guys think about this strategically?

23 年第一季度的毛利率指導似乎意味著 Connected Fitness 的利潤率非常接近盈虧平衡。當你們考慮定價並降低 Tread 和 Row 的價格時，考慮管理硬件毛利率盈虧平衡的正確方法是嗎？或者你們如何從戰略角度考慮這個問題？

Liz, why don't you take that?

LZ，你為什麼不接受這個呢？

Yes, sure. So you're actually -- you're about right that for Q1, it implies a roughly neutral Connected Fitness gross margin. When we look at our unit economics for the business, all of our unit economics aside from guide show that we have the ability to keep our gross margin in the positive territory. But what that means, we do have -- that's based on a variable cost kind of a contribution margin structure. And it doesn't include things like promotional activity and which we will continue to have some of.

是的，當然。所以你實際上 - 你是對的，對於第一季度，這意味著 Connected Fitness 的毛利率大致為中性。當我們查看業務的單位經濟效益時，除了指導之外，我們所有的單位經濟效益都表明我們有能力將毛利率保持在正值範圍內。但這意味著什麼，我們確實有——這是基於可變成本的邊際貢獻結構。它不包括促銷活動之類的內容，我們將繼續進行一些活動。

But it also -- it requires us to have a certain level of volume. Otherwise, we do have some -- we have fixed costs that we also have to cover. So as our volume growth and our volume scales, we do have the ability to achieve positive gross margin. But in Q1, we'll be challenged a bit in terms of our weak hardware sales that we're expecting to have and have the -- that is impacting our gross margin -- Connected Fitness gross margin guidance in the quarter. But the key thing to note here is our goal is to really grow our subscriber base. And we're going to continue to work on ways to do that, and we'll evaluate our hardware margin really through the LTV-to-CAC framework.

但它也要求我們有一定程度的數量。否則，我們確實有一些——我們也必須承擔固定成本。因此，隨著我們的銷量增長和銷量規模擴大，我們確實有能力實現正毛利率。但在第一季度，我們將面臨一些挑戰，因為我們預計硬件銷售疲軟，並且影響我們的毛利率——本季度 Connected Fitness 毛利率指導。但這裡要注意的關鍵是我們的目標是真正擴大我們的用戶群。我們將繼續研究實現這一目標的方法，並且我們將通過 LTV-to-CAC 框架真正評估我們的硬件利潤。

As we've said before, and we said it multiple times, our focus is driving efficient subscriber growth through the lens of LTV to CAC, and if you think beyond Q1, we're going to look at the trade-off that we have on reducing price or offering promotion activity, those sorts of things which reduce LTV in relation to efficient marketing spend. And so we'll continue to make those trade-offs in each quarter evaluate what is the best strategy for us.

正如我們之前說過的，並且我們多次說過，我們的重點是通過 LTV 到 CAC 的角度推動有效的用戶增長，如果你考慮第一季度之後的情況，我們將考慮我們所擁有的權衡降低價格或提供促銷活動，這些會降低與有效營銷支出相關的生命週期價值。因此，我們將繼續在每個季度進行權衡，評估對我們來說最好的策略。

Let me jump in and add a slightly different perspective, if I could, Andrew. When I -- I've been here about 18 months, give or take. And when I walked in the door, it seems to me, we had a limited number of tools in the toolbox in order to grow the business. And price promotion was about the only thing we had. We have a commercial business, but it was needed to be re-architected from a cost perspective, like everything else, Peloton-related. I don't mean that in a derogatory way. It just -- we had things we needed to fix and we had price promotions as a tool to drive growth.

如果可以的話，讓我介入並添加一個稍微不同的觀點，安德魯。當我——我已經在這里大約 18 個月了，不管怎樣。當我走進大門時，在我看來，為了發展業務，我們工具箱中的工具數量有限。價格促銷是我們唯一擁有的。我們有商業業務，但需要從成本角度重新架構，就像其他與 Peloton 相關的業務一樣。我的意思並不是貶義的。只是——我們有需要解決的問題，並且我們將價格促銷作為推動增長的工具。

That's very different than where the business sits today. We have a lot of irons in the fire. I've got a lot of tools in the toolbox. I mean, I'm -- I don't mean to sound like one of those CEOs is completely disconnected from the stock price because it's not lost and I walked in the door when it was 39, and it was hanging out about $5 at the start of this call. But I have never been more optimistic. We're excited about the future of the business, and there is this enormous disconnect between the stock price and the energy and the building around all of the partnerships and co-development things that are cooking.

這與今天的業務有很大不同。我們有很多熨斗正在燃燒。我的工具箱裡有很多工具。我的意思是，我並不是想讓其中一位首席執行官與股價完全脫節，因為它並沒有迷失，我在 39 歲時走進大門，當時它的價格約為 5 美元本次通話的開始。但我從未如此樂觀過。我們對業務的未來感到興奮，但股價、能源以及圍繞所有正在醞釀的合作夥伴關係和共同開發事物的建設之間存在著巨大的脫節。

So if I'm right about that, and we are, in fact, less dependent on price promotions in order to drive growth, then that should have positive implications for hardware margins, which is why I went through that long-winded explanation.

因此，如果我的觀點是對的，而且事實上我們不太依賴價格促銷來推動增長，那麼這應該會對硬件利潤率產生積極影響，這就是我進行冗長解釋的原因。

For my second question, I wanted to ask about the corporate opportunity. Do you guys need to make any investments on the sales and marketing side to be able to support that? Or what else needs to happen to really drive growth for hospitality, for everything else that's included there?

對於第二個問題，我想問一下企業機會。你們需要在銷售和營銷方面進行任何投資才能支持這一點嗎？或者還需要發生什麼才能真正推動酒店業以及其中包含的其他一切的增長？

Super good question. We just added to the team on the commercial side, senior exec from American Express, who led strategic partnerships there, Greg Hybl to help build out our sales capability to drive growth in commercial and corporate wellness. So yes, there'll be some investment. But from a macro basis, it won't be a big impact on margins.

超級好問題。我們剛剛在商業方面的團隊中增加了美國運通公司的高級執行官，他領導了那裡的戰略合作夥伴關係，格雷格·海布爾（Greg Hybl）幫助建立我們的銷售能力，以推動商業和企業健康的增長。所以是的，會有一些投資。但從宏觀來看，這不會對利潤率產生太大影響。

I was just going to add one more point. Another thing that we're excited about for the business that's going to help drive growth there is that we are working on commercially launching our Bike+ and our Row and that should be coming really soon, and that will give more opportunities for businesses to have our hardware in their settings. So it will be great when we're able to offer that, too.

我只想再補充一點。另一件讓我們感到興奮的事情是，我們正在致力於商業推出我們的Bike+ 和Row，這將很快到來，這將為企業提供更多機會來擁有我們的業務，這將有助於推動那裡的增長。他們的設置中的硬件。因此，如果我們也能夠提供這一服務，那就太好了。

And Tread+ once it's reintroduced in the market as well. So yes.

Tread+ 重新引入市場後也是如此。所以是的。

Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Okay. I've got a couple. Barry, of all of the 3 things, getting to positive free cash flow in the back half of next year, your product initiatives and your growth initiatives that include marketing spend, international expansion, corporate partnerships, where would you say you've had highest level of confidence? And where do you think there's a greater level of uncertainty?

好的。我有一對。巴里，在所有三件事中，明年下半年實現正的自由現金流、你的產品計劃和增長計劃，包括營銷支出、國際擴張、企業合作夥伴關係，你認為你在哪些方面做得最好信心程度？您認為哪裡存在更大的不確定性？

And then I have a question on forecast. In terms of your first quarter forecast, how different is your methodology this time than it was last time in terms of your -- given the level of visibility and perhaps uncertainties? So how confident do you feel in your current guidance? And how different was your method this time?

然後我有一個關於預測的問題。就您第一季度的預測而言，考慮到可見性水平和可能的不確定性，這次您的方法與上次有什麼不同？那麼您對當前的指導有多大信心？這次你的方法有何不同？

Liz, do you want to take the second part of the question?

LZ，你想回答問題的第二部分嗎？

Sure. So it's a little bit of an odd question. One thing that is a little different about Q1 versus other quarters is that we are guiding much later in the quarter than we often do. And so our confidence in our guidance range is higher because there's less of the quarter left to provide guidance to. There wasn't really a change in the methodology of our guidance. We just added an additional guidance with regard to app subscribers.

當然。所以這是一個有點奇怪的問題。第一季度與其他季度略有不同的是，我們在本季度的指導時間比平常晚得多。因此，我們對指導範圍的信心更高，因為剩下的季度時間較少，可以提供指導。我們的指導方法並沒有真正改變。我們剛剛添加了有關應用訂閱者的額外指南。

I mean, I guess the other change would be that we're guiding to Connected Fitness subscribers, excluding paused subscribers and then our app subscribers. But otherwise, there's really no change to our methodology.

我的意思是，我想另一個變化是我們正在引導 Connected Fitness 訂閱者，不包括暫停的訂閱者，然後是我們的應用程序訂閱者。但除此之外，我們的方法實際上沒有改變。

And I think the question for me was how much risk is -- do I perceive in the business related to the upside growth in the second half of the year? And the short answer is, not much. I mean, it's pretty -- look, it's a pretty low bar. And if we can't deliver against that bar, then what the heck are we doing? So -- and at the moment, we're all consumed with the potential upside and that we haven't announced it, we're kind of in process.

我認為對我來說問題是風險有多大——我認為業務與下半年的上行增長相關嗎？簡短的回答是，不多。我的意思是，這很漂亮——看，這是一個相當低的門檻。如果我們不能達到這個標準，那麼我們到底在做什麼？因此，目前，我們都對潛在的上行空間感到興奮，而且我們還沒有宣布這一點，我們正在處理中。

So at the moment, I'm filled with optimism. Now a bunch of those things fall by the wayside. I'd be saying it in a different tune, but today, I'm feeling pretty good.

所以此刻我充滿了樂觀。現在，很多這樣的事情都被拋在了一邊。我會用不同的語氣說，但今天，我感覺很好。

Our next question comes from Mario Lu with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mario Lu。

The first one is on the free app, I know it's only been 3 months, but any early data points to share with regards to these free users eventually converting to either all access or paid members over time? And then on a separate note, is there an ad-rev opportunity for the free app similar to Spotify?

第一個是免費應用程序，我知道才過去了 3 個月，但是關於這些免費用戶隨著時間的推移最終轉換為所有訪問或付費會員的任何早期數據點可以分享嗎？另外，類似於 Spotify 的免費應用程序是否有廣告收入機會？

Let me do the second part of the question and ask Liz to do the first part. So I'm a little bit familiar with the Ad business since I ran it at Spotify. And one of my takeaways, I have 2 from that experience. One is that advertisers buy reach, which means it requires scale in your business in order to be a viable player and we don't have that for a long time.

讓我做問題的第二部分，並請麗茲做第一部分。自從我在 Spotify 負責廣告業務以來，我對廣告業務有點熟悉。我從那次經歷中得到了兩個收穫。一是廣告商購買覆蓋範圍，這意味著您的業務需要規模化才能成為可行的參與者，而我們很長一段時間都沒有做到這一點。

And secondly, it is very resource-intensive. It requires a lot of engineers writing a lot of code with a lot of complexity in order to have the measurement and other tools you need and the automation required at scale to properly sell and account for the Ad business. So the only way in which we would be able to participate, I think, is the practical matter would be to outsource it, sort of -- a lot of like Netflix model.

其次，它非常消耗資源。它需要大量工程師編寫大量複雜的代碼，以便擁有所需的測量和其他工具以及大規模所需的自動化，以正確銷售和核算廣告業務。因此，我認為，我們能夠參與的唯一方式是實際問題是將其外包，有點像 Netflix 的模式。

And if we did that, I think it would not be the user experience that we would all aspire to have -- for our members to have. And so I don't foresee as a practical matter any scenario under which in the foreseeable future, we're in the ad base. Liz, I think the question was aversion.

如果我們這樣做，我認為這將不是我們所有人都渴望擁有的用戶體驗 - 我們的會員也不會擁有。因此，我不認為在可預見的未來，我們會出現在廣告庫中的任何實際情況。 LZ，我認為這個問題是厭惡。

Yes. So the question was about early data points regarding the free app and getting people to convert to paid. So as Barry mentioned, we have had over 900,000 downloads of the app. Over 600,000 of those have been related to users that are new to Peloton. We have about 0.25 million of monthly active users of the app. So there is certainly opportunity to drive further engagement. We believe that a lot more of these people are earlier in their fitness journeys.

是的。所以問題是關於免費應用程序的早期數據點以及如何讓人們轉換為付費應用程序。正如 Barry 提到的，我們的應用程序下載量已超過 900,000 次。其中超過 600,000 個與 Peloton 的新用戶相關。該應用程序的月活躍用戶約為 25 萬。因此，肯定有機會推動進一步的參與。我們相信，這些人中有更多人處於健身之旅的早期階段。

And as Barry mentioned, that we have work to do on the app to make it easier for people to get started and drive that engagement. We really do believe that building a free tier base is important for long-term growth. We're very focused on driving awareness and that's been really good because we've had a large number of downloads. But a lot of these people are new to Peloton and they haven't decided yet to upgrade to App One or App Plus. But that's one of the key things that we're working on, how to engage them better and get them to convert to a paid membership.

正如巴里提到的，我們在應用程序上還有很多工作要做，以使人們更容易上手並推動參與。我們確實相信建立免費套餐對於長期增長非常重要。我們非常注重提高認知度，這非常好，因為我們已經獲得了大量下載。但其中很多人是 Peloton 的新手，他們還沒有決定升級到 App One 或 App Plus。但這是我們正在努力的關鍵事情之一，如何更好地吸引他們並讓他們轉變為付費會員。

Great. That's helpful. And then second question is on fixed cost. You reduced your fixed OpEx items by 25% to 30% year-on-year this quarter. Just curious if there's any color you can provide in terms of how much further improvements we can expect to see in fiscal '24 in terms of the fixed cost reductions?

偉大的。這很有幫助。第二個問題是關於固定成本。本季度您的固定運營支出項目同比減少了 25% 至 30%。只是好奇您是否可以提供任何關於我們預計在 24 財年在固定成本削減方面可以看到多少進一步改進的信息？

Yes. So why don't I -- I'll just talk about -- I'll talk about our OpEx kind of more in general. So we aren't offering any specific targets, but we are going to continue to optimize our fixed cost base over the course of the year. For G&A, we're going to continue to optimize and reduce costs in areas like we've called out staff augmentation, legal spending, customer service. It's worth calling out that in Q4, we did have a one-time benefit in our legal expenses that we don't expect to repeat.

是的。那麼，我為什麼不——我只是談談——我會更籠統地談談我們的運營支出。因此，我們沒有提供任何具體目標，但我們將在這一年中繼續優化我們的固定成本基礎。對於一般行政費用，我們將繼續優化和降低我們已呼籲增加員工、法律支出、客戶服務等領域的成本。值得一提的是，在第四季度，我們的法律費用確實獲得了一次性好處，但我們預計不會重複。

But on a full year basis, we have line of sight to over $100 million in expense reductions versus fiscal '23. For areas like R&D, we expect our R&D expenditures to be similar to FY '23 as we continue to invest in our platform. With a primary focus being on software improvements such as personalization that Barry has mentioned and also improving our app. But I do think it is worth just mentioning very briefly that we are making a change in how we think about our R&D costs.

但就全年而言，我們預計與 23 財年相比將減少超過 1 億美元的費用。對於研發等領域，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的平台，我們預計我們的研發支出將與 23 財年相似。主要重點是軟件改進，例如巴里提到的個性化以及改進我們的應用程序。但我確實認為值得簡單提及的是，我們正在改變我們對研發成本的看法。

So we mentioned it, it's in the shareholder letter that we will not be capitalizing any longer a substantial majority of our R&D for internal use software. And so you may see that in the P&L as more of our R&D costs will be expensed rather than capitalized. It's about roughly estimating about a $10 million impact to Q1 R&D expense.

因此，我們在股東信中提到，我們將不再將大部分研發資金用於內部使用軟件。因此，您可能會在損益表中看到，因為我們更多的研發成本將被支出而不是資本化。粗略估計對第一季度研發費用的影響約為 1000 萬美元。

Hopefully, that helps. I did want to mention one last thing. Let me just mention one last thing. Just on sales and marketing, some of our sales and marketing costs, we will be -- continue to be reducing our retail store footprint. And so we will see some of those costs come out from more of a fixed marketing cost, but we'll be reinvesting some of those into sales and marketing in other channels that are much more efficient as well.

希望這會有所幫助。我確實想提最後一件事。讓我提最後一件事。僅在銷售和營銷方面，我們的一些銷售和營銷成本，我們將繼續減少我們的零售店佔地面積。因此，我們將看到其中一些成本更多地來自固定營銷成本，但我們將把其中一些成本重新投資到其他效率更高的渠道的銷售和營銷中。

The next question comes from Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自愛德華·尤魯瑪和派珀·桑德勒。

So I guess just a bigger-picture question and maybe in light of what happened with Seatpost, I guess, I know you haven't reported like workouts per user in a long time, but very curious how you think about overall engagement within your Connected Fitness subscriber base? How has it been trending? Did the SeatPost have an issue with that?

所以我想這只是一個更大的問題，也許考慮到 Seatpost 發生的事情，我想，我知道您很長一段時間沒有報告每個用戶的鍛煉情況，但很好奇您如何看待 Connected 中的整體參與度健身用戶群？趨勢如何？ SeatPost 對此有疑問嗎？

And then just real quickly on inventory. I know there were a lot of extraordinary costs that were kind of capitalized on some of the older layers of inventory. I guess going forward, how should we think about kind of directionally kind of cost of goods and how the Bike price compares to maybe some of the legacy inventory you had on the balance sheet?

然後很快就能清庫存。我知道有很多非凡的成本都被利用在一些舊的庫存層上。我想展望未來，我們應該如何考慮某種方向性的商品成本，以及自行車價格與資產負債表上的一些遺留庫存相比如何？

Maybe Liz could take the inventory piece, and I'll take the engagement piece first. And Liz, if there's anything you want to add to engagement, please do.

也許莉茲可以拿走庫存物品，我會先拿走訂婚物品。莉茲，如果您想增加參與度，請儘管說。

Macro engagement has remained strong. Liz mentioned that there were a number of folks who paused their account related to Seatpost, but amongst the members who didn't, and I would say, the fact that in our notification, we asked them to stop using their Bike, they just kept using their Bike.

宏觀參與依然強勁。莉茲提到，有很多人暫停了與Seatpost 相關的帳戶，但在沒有這樣做的成員中，我想說的是，事實上，在我們的通知中，我們要求他們停止使用自行車，他們只是繼續這樣做使用他們的自行車。

And as if we -- as if there was no notification. So -- and I think that probably explains why we didn't see an aggregate -- a dip in engagement like perhaps you might have expected given the proposal around Seatpost. Liz, do you want to comment on inventory? Or correct anything I just said?

就好像我們——就好像沒有任何通知一樣。因此，我認為這可能解釋了為什麼我們沒有看到總體參與度的下降，就像您在座桿提案中所預期的那樣。 LZ，你想評論一下庫存嗎？或者糾正我剛才說的話？

Yes. Nothing to correct, but I will -- let me talk a little bit about inventory. So from an inventory perspective, inventory will continue to be a source of cash for us in fiscal '24. But we are in a much more normalized inventory position than we were last year. And we are already, we're purchasing more hardware. We purchase -- in fact, we're purchasing more Bike inventory and Tread inventory this quarter. So I think your question was talking about the cost of goods sold and have our cost of goods sold come down. For products like Tread, we have seen our cost of goods sold come down substantially.

是的。沒有什麼需要糾正的，但我會——讓我談談庫存。因此，從庫存角度來看，庫存將繼續成為我們 24 財年的現金來源。但我們的庫存狀況比去年更加正常化。我們已經購買了更多硬件。事實上，我們本季度購買了更多的自行車庫存和胎面庫存。所以我認為你的問題是關於銷售商品的成本以及我們的銷售商品成本是否下降。對於像 Tread 這樣的產品，我們已經看到我們的銷售成本大幅下降。

That's part of one of the reasons why we were able to reduce the price for Tread. So the freight inbound is down from what it was for the old inventory because it's no longer -- those really expensive rates that we had to pay for freight. We also aren't storing as much inventory as we had in the past, our storage costs have come down. And also, our logistics costs have come down, and we have -- and we're continuing to make progress even in our Middle Mile as well and that will come in throughout the year. So all of those things have reduced our overall cost of goods.

這是我們能夠降低 Tread 價格的部分原因之一。因此，入庫運費比舊庫存有所下降，因為我們不再需要支付非常昂貴的運費。我們也沒有像過去那樣存儲那麼多庫存，我們的存儲成本已經下降。而且，我們的物流成本已經下降，而且我們甚至在“中英里”方面也繼續取得進展，這將在全年取得進展。所有這些都降低了我們的總體商品成本。

And in the case of Tread and rower, some of those reductions we decided to give back to our customers in the form of a price reduction. We haven't seen as big of an impact to our Bike from that perspective but more to Tread specifically. I did want to correct one thing about Barry's comment about the 80,000 subscribers related to the Seatpost that was really more around 15,000 to 20,000 incrementals.

就踏板和划船器而言，我們決定以降價的形式回饋客戶。從這個角度來看，我們還沒有看到對我們的自行車有太大的影響，但特別是對踏板的影響更大。我確實想糾正巴里關於與座桿相關的 80,000 個訂閱者的評論，該評論實際上更多的是 15,000 到 20,000 個增量。

I think the 80,000 is the aggregate.

我認為80,000是總數。

Yes, 80,000 is the aggregate, 15,000 to 20,000 incremental.

是的，80,000 是總計，15,000 到 20,000 是增量。

Our next question comes from John Blackledge with T.D Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 和 T.D Cowen。

Two questions. On the College initiative, can you talk about the pipeline for that opportunity? And then second, on the rental program launched in Germany on August 9. I know it's a couple of weeks in, but just curious how you see that opportunity in Germany?

兩個問題。關於學院的倡議，您能談談這個機會的渠道嗎？其次，關於 8 月 9 日在德國推出的租賃計劃。我知道這已經是幾週後的事了，但只是好奇您如何看待德國的這個機會？

In reverse order, in Germany, John, as you may know, they're more culturally accustomed to rental models and which is why the team thought that Fitness-as-a-Service program would land well. It's really too early to know, although there's enthusiasm about it initially. So we're incredibly optimistic, let's say. And with respect to the College pipeline, I understand where you're coming from the question. I really don't want to answer it.

相反，在德國，約翰，你可能知道，他們在文化上更習慣租賃模式，這就是為什麼團隊認為健身即服務計劃會很好地落地。儘管一開始人們對此充滿熱情，但現在下結論還為時過早。所以可以說，我們非常樂觀。關於大學管道，我理解你提出這個問題的出發點。我實在是不想回答。

But you could imagine that program like the one that we were fortunate enough to have announced with Michigan could scale across other Division One programs in the [full of sometime]. And I certainly hope that is true. I think the opportunity to do co-branded bikes on college campuses and elsewhere are enormous.

但你可以想像，像我們有幸與密歇根州宣布的那個項目一樣，可以在[完全的某個時候]擴展到其他一級項目。我當然希望這是真的。我認為在大學校園和其他地方製作聯合品牌自行車的機會是巨大的。

And if we're -- I wonder if we're going to be the dog that caught the car because if the thing really takes off, then the supply chain guys are going to -- all be pulling their hair out, of course, because it's going to create enormous pressure on them to fulfill demand amongst the rapid fan base. I hope we're lucky enough to have that problem.

如果我們——我想知道我們是否會成為抓住汽車的狗，因為如果事情真的成功了，那麼供應鏈人員將會——當然，所有人都會抓狂，因為這會給他們帶來巨大的壓力，以滿足快速粉絲群體的需求。我希望我們足夠幸運能夠遇到這個問題。

Our next question comes from Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自安妮莎謝爾曼和伯恩斯坦。

So historically, Q1 has been your weakest quarter and Q2 to 3 have driven more than 60% of the year's sales. So as you talk about seasonality impact in Q1, do you then expect to see a similar cadence through the year into Q2 to 3? And then I have a kind of follow-on with a bit more medium term. As you effectively kind of lowered the dollar commitment for new members over your new pricing schemes, do you then expect the seasonality in the business to get sharper? And do you believe your cost base is now aligned for just generally more seasonal business?

因此，從歷史上看，第一季度是最弱的季度，第二季度至第三季度推動了全年 60% 以上的銷售額。因此，當您談論第一季度的季節性影響時，您是否預計今年第二季度至第三季度會出現類似的節奏？然後我有一個更中期的後續行動。當您通過新的定價方案有效地降低了新會員的美元承諾時，您是否預計業務的季節性會變得更加尖銳？您是否認為您的成本基礎現在適合一般季節性業務？

I can take the question about the revenue seasonality. So we're not going to offer full year guidance for our revenue. But in the past, we've shared sort of what the revenue phasing we expect for the year. And I'm going to show that again with you. So we expect our fiscal '24 revenue seasonality to be most closely resemble our fiscal '23, but we do expect it to be more heavily weighted to the back half of the year this year, as Barry mentioned. Not quite as heavy as fiscal '21, but heavier than it was weighted in fiscal '23.

我可以回答有關收入季節性的問題。因此，我們不會提供全年收入指引。但在過去，我們分享了我們對今年收入階段的預期。我將和你們再次展示這一點。因此，我們預計 24 財年的收入季節性將與 23 財年最接近，但正如巴里提到的，我們確實預計今年下半年的比重會更大。不像 21 財年那麼重，但比 23 財年的權重更大。

Now the second half of -- the second part of the question was will our seasonality change with pricing changes? I think that is a tougher question to answer because we'll know as we go along. But the business, we -- it also affects -- there's also factors related to the macro economy and some of that and also some of the things that we're going to do to drive improvements in our app, which will improve our app experience, which should improve the growth in that part of the business as well. So I think the answer is we'll kind of know when we know. But for now, our expectation is that the seasonality will be the way I described it. Barry, anything else to add?

現在的後半部分——問題的第二部分是我們的季節性會隨著價格的變化而變化嗎？我認為這是一個更難回答的問題，因為隨著我們的進展我們就會知道。但是我們的業務——它也會影響——還有與宏觀經濟相關的因素，其中一些因素以及我們將要做的一些事情來推動我們的應用程序的改進，這將改善我們的應用程序體驗，這也應該會促進這部分業務的增長。所以我認為答案是當我們知道的時候我們就會知道。但就目前而言，我們的預期是季節性將如我所描述的那樣。巴里，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

One minor point. I agree with everything Liz said. I think it's -- we'll know more over time. But I think it's possible that the -- at least the app business will be less seasonal than the Connected Fitness business because the Connected Fitness unit stays indoors when people are outdoors. But the app travels with you wherever you are. And a number of those workouts are designed to be done anywhere, anytime, anyplace. So when you're running between yoga or outside or strengthening the gym or if you're using Connected Fitness content on -- in a gym, by way of example.

一個小問題。我同意莉茲所說的一切。我認為隨著時間的推移我們會知道更多。但我認為，至少應用程序業務的季節性可能比 Connected Fitness 業務的季節性要小，因為當人們在戶外時，Connected Fitness 部門仍留在室內。但無論您身在何處，該應用程序都會隨身攜帶。其中許多鍛煉是為了隨時隨地進行而設計的。因此，當您在瑜伽或戶外跑步或在健身房鍛煉身體時，或者您在健身房中使用 Connected Fitness 內容時。

Our last question comes from Jonathan Komp with Baird.

我們的最後一個問題來自喬納森·康普和貝爾德。

I just wanted to follow up, Barry. I think you mentioned some pretty robust growth expectations by the fourth quarter. Could you maybe just share a little bit more what's driving those assumptions? And then, Liz, just a modeling question. Are you willing to talk about the relative size of the Precor business on a quarterly or annual basis?

我只是想跟進，巴里。我認為您提到了第四季度的一些相當強勁的增長預期。您能否多分享一下推動這些假設的因素？然後，Liz，這只是一個建模問題。您願意按季度或按年度談論 Precor 業務的相對規模嗎？

Liz is going to vote me off the island if I talk more about the forecast, I'm certain. So I'm going to -- I will answer it, but I'm sure my answer would be unsatisfactory. So I'm referring to the year-over-year growth and -- point one.

我敢肯定，如果我更多地談論天氣預報，莉茲就會投票讓我離開這個島。所以我要——我會回答這個問題，但我確信我的回答不會令人滿意。所以我指的是同比增長——第一點。

Point two, whether or not we achieve it depends greatly on how the year -- the quarter is preceding it unfold. It's not like we're projecting to -- linking back to comments was just made about the seasonal cadence of the business. We're not seeing a big change in the seasonal cadence. So it's not like we're suddenly blowing out Q4. So we stand on the shoulders of the quarters that have come before.

第二點，我們能否實現這一目標在很大程度上取決於這一年——這一季度之前的情況如何。這並不像我們所預測的那樣——鏈接回評論只是關於業務的季節性節奏。我們沒有看到季節性節奏發生重大變化。所以我們並不是說第四季度會突然崩潰。因此，我們站在前人的肩膀上。

Yes. I do think it is worth adding just on the revenue growth side, just to mention the fact that when we do bring Tread+ back to market, that will impact the second half of the year as well from a revenue perspective. Based on how we're thinking about the limited inventory that we'll have available to sell. Now your question about Precor, we don't provide specifics and we don't really break out that Precor business, but it is less than -- expected to be less than 10% of our business in fiscal '24.

是的。我確實認為在收入增長方面值得補充，僅提一下這樣一個事實：當我們將 Tread+ 帶回市場時，從收入角度來看，這也將影響今年下半年。基於我們如何考慮可出售的有限庫存。現在你關於 Precor 的問題，我們沒有提供具體細節，我們也沒有真正細分 Precor 業務，但它低於——預計在 24 財年占我們業務的 10%。

We are making progress on that business though, and I do want to call out that we have put in a new management team in place there. They're still relatively new. And we expect that, that business should be in a much better spot. And they've made some restructuring changes. We are closing a Precor facility in North Carolina. We've announced the closure of that, and they'll be improving their adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow throughout the course of the year.

不過，我們在這項業務上正在取得進展，我確實想指出，我們已經在那裡組建了一個新的管理團隊。它們仍然相對較新。我們預計，該業務應該處於更好的位置。他們還進行了一些重組調整。我們將關閉位於北卡羅來納州的 Precor 工廠。我們已經宣布關閉該項目，他們將在全年改善調整後的 EBITDA 和自由現金流。

And I'd like to turn the call back over to Peter Stabler for any closing remarks.

我想將電話轉回給 Peter Stabler，讓其作結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for joining us today. We'll speak to you next quarter. Have a great day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們將在下個季度與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.

女士們、先生們，今天的演講到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接，並度過美好的一天。