派樂騰 (PTON) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Peloton Interactive 1Q '24 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

大家好，感謝您的收看。歡迎參加 Peloton Interactive 2024 年第一季業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將會議交給今天的發言人，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。

Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Conference Call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy; CFO, Liz Coddington; and Chief Marketing Officer, Leslie Berland. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

早安，歡迎參加 Peloton 2024 財年第一季電話會議。今天參加電話會議的嘉賓包括執行長 Barry McCarthy、財務長 Liz Coddington 和首席行銷長 Leslie Berland。我們對您提出的問題的評論和回應僅反映管理層截至今日的觀點，其中將包含與我們業務相關的聲明，這些聲明根據聯邦證券法屬於前瞻性聲明。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter. I'll now turn the call over to Barry McCarthy.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件和今天的股東信，這兩份文件均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳表。現在，我將把電話會議交給 Barry McCarthy。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. In a break with tradition, I invited Leslie Berland to join us knowing that growth is on everyone's mind. And this begins a process whereby in future calls from time to time. You can expect me to invite into the room, other operating executives so that you have an opportunity to gain exposure to them and they have an opportunity to gain exposure to you. And you can hear firsthand from them about different aspects of how the business is being operated. And with that, we'll open the phones to questions, Josh.

大家早安。感謝大家加入我們。我打破傳統，邀請了萊斯利·伯蘭加入我們，因為我知道每個人都在關注成長。這將開啟一個新局面，以後我們會不時地進行電話會議。我會邀請其他營運主管到場，這樣你們就有機會與他們交流，他們也有機會與你們交流。你們可以直接從他們那裡了解公司營運的各個方面。接下來，我們將開始電話問答環節，喬希。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

I have 2. Just first, you have a number of different growth initiatives going. Just as you think about your forecast for revenue growth and positive EBITDA and substantial free cash flow in the back half of the fiscal year. Can you just help us rank the 2 to 3 biggest drivers across these various initiatives? And then secondly, how do you think about timing for the lululemon partnership to benefit the business just given access to their large membership base.

我有兩點想問。首先，你們正在實施一系列不同的成長計劃。正如您預測下半年財年收入將成長、EBITDA 為正，而自由現金流將大幅成長。您能否幫我們列出這些計劃中最重要的兩到三個驅動因素？其次，鑑於 Lululemon 龐大的會員基礎，您認為與 Lululemon 合作的時機如何？

Jump in on the drivers? Do you want to take it? Well, let's see, from my perspective, with respect to the drivers, a couple of things. One is we're going to reintroduce the Tread+ this quarter and began taking preorders and that will be -- if we're successful, that will be a big driver of incremental cash flow and revenue for us. Remember, we have all of that inventory in warehouse already and fully paid for and have set before I walked in the door. So that would be thing one.

談驅動因素？你想了解一下嗎？嗯，就驅動因素而言，我來談談幾個面向。首先，我們將在本季重新推出Tread+，並開始接受預訂。如果成功，這將成為我們現金流和收入成長的重要驅動力。記住，所有庫存都已入庫，並在我進門之前就已全部付款並安裝完畢。所以，這是第一點。

Thing 2 is continued success growing app-related subscribers. And I'm sure we'll have more questions about how we're thinking about that opportunity on a go-forward basis. And then we need to continue to have success with the core -- all access membership. But I think our growth projections are reasonably conservative in that regard. So that time thinking about the growth initiatives in terms of lululemon, that's live. And we are benefiting from it as we speak. So actually nothing more to say about the economics of that on a go-forward basis.

第二件事是繼續成功成長與應用程式相關的訂閱用戶。我相信我們未來會面臨更多關於如何看待這項機會的問題。然後，我們需要繼續在核心業務—全通路會員方面取得成功。但我認為我們在這方面的成長預測相當保守。所以，這次我們考慮的是lululemon的成長計劃，它正在上線。我們現在正在從中受益。所以，關於lululemon未來的經濟效益，其實沒什麼好說的了。

Yes. The one thing I can add on lululemon is that we just started having our content available for the lululemon studio members who have a mirror that actually went live yesterday on November 1. And so as far as receiving the revenue sharing benefit from that agreement that we have with lulu that started effective in November. And we expect roughly to give you a sense of the size for the quarter, roughly about $10 million of revenue for Q2 coming from that subscription revenue for us.

是的。關於lululemon，我可以補充一點，我們剛開始向lululemon工作室會員提供我們的內容，他們的鏡像實際上昨天（11月1日）上線了。至於我們與lulu簽訂的協議（該協議於11月生效），我們與lulu的收益分成也大致相同。我們預計本季的營收規模大概是1,000萬美元，第二季來自訂閱營收的收益約為1,000萬美元。

There is an apparel component to it. It started phenomenally strongly and then an initial launch in Chicago. We drove a tremendous amount of store traffic for them, a huge increase in apparel sales for us. And we'll be working on a more complete integration of that opportunity, and that will be a little slower to develop over time.

這裡面有服裝部分。一開始表現非常強勁，在芝加哥首次亮相。我們為他們帶來了大量的店客流量，也大幅提升了我們的服裝銷售。我們將致力於更全面地整合這個機會，但隨著時間的推移，這項整合的進展會稍微慢一些。

Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Okay. Could you please talk about the promotion environment this year versus last year? And any change in your strategy in terms of running promotions this year, length of time, the depth of promotions. Any comments on that, please? And then the second is, how should we think about your guidance for the quarter and for the full year, puts and takes that are baked into -- or the assumptions that are baked into your guidance? And any potential what impact from these new partnerships are you accounting for in your guidance for the full year?

好的。能否談談今年與去年相比的促銷環境？以及今年促銷策略、促銷時間和深度方面有什麼變化？您對此有何評論？第二個問題是，我們應該如何看待您對本季和全年的業績預期？這些預期包含了哪些收益和利弊？您在全年業績預期中是否考慮了這些新夥伴關係可能帶來的影響？

Let me say just a brief intro, I'll turn it over to Leslie to talk about our thoughts about the promo environment for the current quarter. And Liz will take the last part of the question. So I think I'm right on a Q-over-Q basis for the quarter completed, we had a higher ASP, and we're less on promotion than we were a year ago. We were higher by 3%, something like that. So -- and so that reflected in the improvement in gross margin on a year-over-year basis and the 31% increase in gross profit that helped deliver in the quarter. You want to talk about that holiday?

先簡單介紹一下，接下來請 Leslie 談談我們對本季促銷環境的看法。 Liz 會回答問題的最後一個部分。我認為我猜對了，就本季環比而言，我們的平均售價更高，而且促銷力度也比去年同期有所減弱。我們當時的平均售價大概高了 3% 左右。這反映在毛利率的同比提升以及 31% 的毛利成長上，這些都有助於本季的業績。你想談談那個節慶季節嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Happy to be on the call. I think we're very excited as we embark on holiday and we always bring exciting value to both our members and new customers as well. I think what's interesting to also mention is how we bring these promotions to life. So we've really learned a lot over the past couple of months, around digital and social media marketing and specifically creator and influencer marketing, which really reframes and contextualizes both this value as well as the promotion. So we're seeing really strong traction in all of our work in this space, and you will absolutely see this come to life during holiday.

是的，當然。很高興接聽電話。我們非常期待假期的到來，我們也一直致力於為會員和新客戶提供令人興奮的價值。值得一提的是，我們如何將這些促銷活動付諸實行。在過去的幾個月裡，我們在數位和社群媒體行銷方面，尤其是創作者和網紅行銷方面學到了很多，這真正地重新定義了這些價值以及促銷活動，並賦予了它們新的內涵。因此，我們在這個領域的所有工作都取得了強勁的進展，您一定會在假期期間看到這些成果。

The other part I'll mention is you read in the shareholder letter around our partnerships. Much of our partnership work is starting to take form at the exact same time and NBA being an example, Michigan as well. So there's a great sort of coming together of all these initiatives in the next few months.

我要提到的另一部分是，各位在致股東的信中已經讀到我們關於合作關係的內容。我們的許多合作項目正在同時開始成形，例如NBA和密西根大學。因此，在接下來的幾個月裡，所有這些舉措將會很好地融合在一起。

Okay. So I'm going to go ahead and take the question about guidance for Q2 and the full year. So our Q2 guidance reflects what I believe to be a balanced view based on the macroeconomic outlook. In fact, that there is some uncertainty around the performance in the holiday season but it does reflect a few things. So I want to call out that it does reflect seasonality of our hardware sales, the fact that Q2 is a heavier hardware sales quarter for us seasonally, given all the holiday promotional activity.

好的。接下來我來回答關於第二季和全年業績指引的問題。我們的第二季業績指引反映了我認為基於宏觀經濟前景的平衡觀點。事實上，假日季的業績表現存在一些不確定性，但這確實反映了一些因素。我想指出的是，這確實反映了我們硬體銷售的季節性，考慮到所有假日促銷活動，第二季對我們來說是硬體銷售較為旺盛的季度。

It's also a quarter where we expect to see surprisingly an improvement and maybe not surprisingly, improvement in our Connected Fitness gross margin. And some of the reasons for that, and our overall gross margin is coming down seasonally as you would expect, but Connected Fitness is actually going to be up in part because of fixed cost leverage that we expect to have from the higher Connected Fitness unit sales.

本季，我們預期Connecting Fitness的毛利率會出乎意料地有所提升，或許也不令人意外。部分原因是，正如大家預期的那樣，我們的整體毛利率會因季節性因素而下降，但Connecting Fitness的毛利率實際上會上升，部分原因是我們預計Connecting Fitness單位銷售額增長將帶來固定成本槓桿。

And we also expect a slight mix shift away from our bike rental relative to Q1 because we expect our rental take rates to be a little lower, driven by the fact that we will have the high promotional activity in the quarter. And then in addition to that, that is offset by some holiday promotional activities. But net-net, we expect it to be slightly higher. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects the fact that we will have seasonal marketing spend to support the holiday season.

我們預計，與第一季相比，自行車租賃業務的組成會略有變化，因為我們預計租賃收入會略有下降，這主要是因為本季的促銷活動較為活躍。此外，一些假日促銷活動也抵銷了租賃收入的下降。但總體而言，我們預期租賃收入會略有成長。我們調整後的EBITDA指引反映了我們將投入季節性行銷支出來支持假日銷售季。

It's important to understand that, that media spend actually supports growth in both Q2 as well as Q3. So the timing of that is reflected in the adjusted EBITDA guidance.

重要的是要理解，媒體支出實際上支撐了第二季和第三季的成長。因此，調整後的EBITDA指引反映了這一時間點。

Now you had asked about partnerships. The way that we are thinking about these partnerships is they are just getting started. So there's not really an implicit benefit baked into our guidance for subscribers directly as a result of a lot of these partnerships in Q2.

您剛才問到了合作夥伴關係。我們認為這些合作關係才剛起步。因此，第二季的大量合作並沒有直接為訂閱用戶帶來任何隱性收益。

The one thing that I called out earlier about lululemon would be the exception to that and so we will -- as we build out these partnerships and the structures take to take -- start to take shape and we gain more traction, we'll be incorporating more of that into perhaps future quarters of guidance.

我之前提到的關於 lululemon 的一個事情就是例外，因此，隨著我們建立這些合作夥伴關係和結構，我們將開始成形並獲得更多關注，我們將把更多內容納入未來幾季的指導中。

Now for the full year, I want to call out a couple of things. Our back half of the year forecast reflects the fact that we expect to see revenue growth acceleration in Q2 and Q3. If you also look at our gross margin that we're targeting for the full year, that also reflects the fact that our Q3 and Q4 gross margins are expected to be higher, and a lot of that is driven by the fact that in addition to the mix shift between subscription and hardware sales, we do expect to see some benefit, as Barry called out earlier from the reintroduction of Tread+. But I do want to call out that we -- that is a new launch for us. There is some uncertainty baked into our guidance around it and the performance of the second half of the year.

現在，關於全年業績，我想談幾點。我們對下半年的預測反映了我們預計第二季和第三季營收成長將加速的事實。如果您同時關注我們全年的目標毛利率，也會發現我們預計第三季和第四季的毛利率將會更高，這在很大程度上得益於訂閱和硬體銷售之間的組合轉變，以及我們預計會從Tread+的重新推出中獲得一些收益，正如Barry之前提到的那樣。但我想指出的是，這對我們來說是一個全新的產品。我們對此的預期以及下半年的業績表現存在一些不確定性。

Our next question comes from Ron Josey with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I wanted to ask a little bit more about engagement trends as Barry in the letter, you talked about an increase in monthly subscription engagement in the quarter and members engaging with longer classes. Do you think that has to do with more of a seasonal usage pattern? Or just Peloton's strategy of being everywhere -- anywhere and everywhere and with longer and more types of class that are coming out. And curious how you use this trend of greater engagement to just improve overall brand. And with Leslie here, maybe you can help us a little bit more just about brand perception and what we're doing to increase that over time.

我想再問一些關於參與度趨勢的問題，因為 Barry 在信中提到了本季月度訂閱參與度的提升，以及會員參與時長更長的課程。您認為這是否與季節性使用模式有關？還是僅僅因為 Peloton 的「無所不在」策略——隨時隨地，並且推出更長、類型更多的課程？我很好奇您是如何利用這種參與度提升的趨勢來提升整體品牌形象的。 Leslie 也在，也許您可以進一步談談品牌認知度，以及我們正在採取哪些措施來持續提升品牌認知度。

Well, the 6% increase in engagement amongst the all access subscribers is year-over-year. So it's not a seasonal trend. And Liz, correct me if I'm wrong, I think it's 12% year-over-year for app engagement as well. So I think it reflects some progress on personalization of continued great execution by Jen Cotter and her content team. And the preferences of the members. So if we're programming our class as well, and if more people are taking longer classes, it's because they're choosing to and we're producing enough of them and enabling them to discover them on the platform in a way that better serves their interest.

嗯，全通路訂閱用戶參與度年增6%，這並非季節性趨勢。 Liz，如果我錯了，請糾正我。我認為應用程式參與度年增12%。我認為這反映了Jen Cotter和她的內容團隊在個人化方面取得的一些進展，以及會員的偏好。所以，如果我們也對課程進行編程，並且有更多人選擇上課時間更長的課程，那是因為他們選擇上課，而且我們製作了足夠多的課程，並讓他們能夠以更符合他們興趣的方式在平台上發現這些課程。

I do want to correct one thing really quick. The 6% includes both the Connected Fitness and the app subscribers total for app for engagement.

我想快速糾正一件事。 6% 包含 Connected Fitness 和應用程式訂閱用戶參與度的總和。

Our next question comes from Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的 Aneesha Sherman。

Two questions for me, please. The first one is on inventory. So as you're continuing to clear inventory, what is the normalized level of hardware gross margins you think the business can get to? I know you've talked about double-digit underlying margins. Does that view change now with the growth of FaaS in the mix? And then I have a quick question on Pop. You took an impairment of $31 million. Can you give us an update on the work being done on that and what you're expecting as the outcome? Are you still expecting a sale?

請問我兩個問題。第一個是關於庫存的。那麼，隨著你們繼續清理庫存，你們認為公司硬體毛利率的正常化水準能達到多少？我知道您之前提到過兩位數的基礎利潤率。隨著FaaS的成長，這種看法會改變嗎？然後我還有一個關於Pop的快速問題。你們提列了3100萬美元的減損。能否介紹一下正在進行的減損工作以及你們預期的結果？你們仍然預計會出售嗎？

So I can take the question on Pop first. In the quarter, we actually took an impairment of only $15 million in this particular quarter. So we are still looking to sell Pop. We are talking to a variety of interested parties, and we hope to have -- hope to be able to sell it soon, but we are still working on that.

所以我可以先回答關於Pop的問題。本季度，我們實際上只提了1500萬美元的減損。所以我們仍在考慮出售Pop。我們正在與多家有意向的機構洽談，希望能盡快出售，但我們仍在為此努力。

On the other question, which was related to inventory and normalized hardware gross margins. We do expect to see -- so we are moving into a more normalized inventory position. We've been purchasing inventory as we prepare for the holiday season. And I did want to comment about the fact that in Q1, it was a use of cash. And in Q2 to Q4, we expect to have a bit of a tailwind on inventory. But by the end of the year, we expect to be pretty normalized with regards to inventory and the seasonal cash flow that the business is accustom to or has been historically accustom to.

另一個問題與庫存和標準化硬體毛利率有關。我們確實預計會看到——所以我們的庫存狀況正在變得更加正常化。為了準備迎接假期，我們一直在購買庫存。我想補充一下，第一季的採購是現金支出。在第二季度到第四季度，我們預計庫存會略有回升。但到今年年底，我們預計庫存和季節性現金流將基本恢復正常，這是公司過去或現在習慣的。

Now in terms of gross margin, we are seeing some benefit on the fact that we are moving into that more normalized inventory position. We don't expect to have any more write-offs of inventory. We'll be able to better manage our reserves. And then we do have on a unit economic basics is excluding promotions, all of our SKUs are a double-digit gross margin positive aside from the guide.

就毛利率而言，我們看到庫存狀況更正常化帶來的一些好處。我們預計不會再出現庫存核銷。我們將能夠更好地管理儲備。此外，我們的單位經濟效益是，除促銷活動外，我們所有SKU的毛利率都達到了兩位數的正值，超出了預期。

Okay. Can you talk about how the impact of FaaS might change the normalized gross margins going forward?

好的。您能談談 FaaS 的影響將如何影響未來的標準化毛利率嗎？

Yes. So let me -- so a little bit about FaaS. So -- from the -- in terms of the impact on gross margin in Q1, FaaS was less than 10 basis points impact on our overall gross margin. So relative to the size of FaaS compared to the overall size of our business, it's a bit of a drag, but not a huge drag on gross margin. The reason that FaaS impacts our gross margin is because of -- mainly because of the fact when people join FaaS, they pay a fee for the delivery and we are cost to deliver that hardware is more expensive than the actual delivery charge that we charge to the customer. And so as we grow that part of the business, you see that impact to gross margin in the first month of the FaaS subscription.

是的。那麼讓我簡單談談FaaS。就第一季對毛利率的影響而言，FaaS對我們整體毛利率的影響不到10個基點。所以，相對於FaaS的規模和我們整體業務規模而言，它確實會造成一些拖累，但對毛利率的影響並不大。 FaaS影響我們毛利率的原因主要是因為當人們加入FaaS時，他們需要支付交付費用，而我們交付硬體的成本比我們向客戶收取的實際交付費用要高。因此，隨著這部分業務的成長，您會在FaaS訂閱的第一個月就看到它對毛利率的影響。

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Eric Sheridan。

Maybe 2, if I could. In terms of FaaS, has there anything you've learned so far on the subscription side that we might see you extend out subscription options into other connected fitness hardware products over time? I'm thinking around elements of relaunching Tread and trying to come back to market with that with maybe a new messaging. That will be number one. And then I just want to make sure we understand the messages on the app strategy and what you're seeing. In terms of applying marketing dollars and ROI, how would you characterize the success you've had in terms of the free tier of the application layer versus the paid tier and elements of all the conversion funnel continues to sort of evolve for the application strategy.

如果可以的話，可能是2個。關於FaaS，到目前為止，您在訂閱方面有什麼經驗可以藉鏡嗎？隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到您將訂閱選項擴展到其他連網健身硬體產品。我正在考慮重新推出Tread，並嘗試透過新的宣傳策略重返市場。這將是我的首要任務。然後，我想確保我們理解應用程式策略中的資訊以及您所看到的情況。關於行銷資金的運用與投資報酬率，您如何描述應用層的免費層與付費層之間的成功，以及所有轉換漏斗的元素如何隨著應用程式策略的不斷發展而演變。

Let me jump in on FaaS. I'll say a few words about app strategy and then ask Leslie to join. I think it's unlikely that we will extend FaaS, at least the treads and treadmills because that installation is more complex than bike. Is it possible that we might extend it to row possibly, but it's still quite early in the life cycle of that product. And I think we have more to learn before we would consider doing that.

我先來談談 FaaS 吧。我會簡單介紹應用策略，然後邀請 Leslie 加入。我認為我們不太可能擴展 FaaS，至少在跑步機和踏步機上不太可能，因為這些設備的安裝比健身車複雜得多。我們有可能把它擴展到划船機嗎？但划船機的生命週期仍處於早期階段。而且我認為在考慮這樣做之前，我們還有很多東西要學習。

So I think the -- and then lastly, I would say their -- we have our hands full with the growth opportunity that FaaS currently presents at 90-plus percent year-over-year. And having just opened up Germany where it -- right out of the box, very small numbers, but right out of the box growing really fast, -- much faster than we were forecasting. So there is plenty for us to chew on, on FaaS with just the current business model. I think is the macro point. As it relates to the app strategy, the marketing team was enormously successful in driving huge volumes into free.

所以我認為——最後，我想說的是——我們正全力以赴地抓住FaaS目前帶來的成長機會，其年成長率超過90%。我們剛剛在德國市場開拓了業務，雖然用戶數量很少，但成長速度非常快，遠遠超出了我們的預期。所以，在現有的商業模式下，FaaS還有很多值得我們思考的地方。我認為這是一個宏觀層面的問題。就應用策略而言，市場團隊在推動大量應用程式免費化方面取得了巨大的成功。

We were not successful at seeing conversion of those free into the paid funnel, which is why we pivoted in the quarter back to focusing on the paid app and the on-ramp there is free trial. And there, we have had terrific success. And we're seeing higher price points than we were forecasting significantly higher take rates of the Apps+ so at $24 then we were -- and we were expecting a heavier mix of $12.99.

我們未能成功將免費應用程式轉化為付費應用程式，因此我們在本季將重點轉向付費應用程式，並推出了免費試用版。在這方面，我們取得了巨大的成功。我們看到Apps+的售價比我們預期的要高，Apps+的收費率也大幅提升，當時的價格是24美元，而我們預期的收費組合會更高，為12.99美元。

Yes. And I'll just jump in a little bit to provide context on the strategy and some of the interesting data points that we saw. So again, the goal including this app is to energize our core member base and to attract new and underpenetrated demographics that have historically not been, as I said, as penetrated for Peloton. And app gave us an amazing opportunity in the pre-app message gave us an amazing opportunity when we rebranded the company and relaunch the brand. What we saw to Barry's point was, obviously, a massive volume of downloads.

是的。我稍微介紹一下我們的策略背景，以及我們看到的一些有趣的數據點。再次強調，推出這款應用程式的目標是激活我們的核心會員群體，並吸引新的、滲透率較低的人群，正如我之前所說，Peloton 的滲透率一直不高。這款應用程式在發布前就為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會，當我們重塑公司品牌和重新推出品牌時，也為我們提供了一個絕佳的機會。正如 Barry 所說，我們看到的顯然是巨大的下載量。

And what's interesting about that tied to the objective is we brought in new demographics. So we brought in lots of people who represented what we would consider our core member base but you saw a movement and significant uptick both in free and paid for demos, including men, Gen Z plus and others. So these are the areas, and again, going back to our partnerships, where you will see us continuing to invest and to drive relevance and engagement, both on our current members that represent those demographics, but also new for growth.

有趣的是，這與目標緊密相關，因為我們引入了新的用戶群。我們引入了許多代表我們核心會員群體的用戶，但你會看到，無論是免費還是付費演示，用戶數量都出現了顯著增長，其中包括男性、Z世代及以上人群。所以，回到我們的合作關係，你會看到我們繼續在這些領域投入，提升相關性和參與度，這不僅針對代表這些人群的現有會員，也針對新會員，以促進成長。

Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. I guess, can you give us an update on how rental churn has progressed? And are you seeing that decline as we anticipated a few months ago? And then how should we think about the range of outcomes you're now considering for the kind of steady state of churn there?

我是 Nathan Feather，Lauren 的節目主持人。能介紹一下租賃流失率的最新進展嗎？您是否看到了幾個月前我們預測的下降趨勢？那麼，對於目前這種穩定的流失率，您現在考慮的結果範圍該如何呢？

The question.

問題。

I can answer the first part of your question, Nathan, but we missed kind of the last part of your question about a little bit garbled, if you wouldn't mind repeating that.

我可以回答你問題的第一部分，內森，但我們錯過了你問題的最後一部分，有點混亂，如果你不介意重複的話。

Yes. Just how should we think about the new range of outcomes to the steady state of churn rate kind of over the long term?

是的。那麼，我們該如何看待長期穩定的客戶流失率所帶來的一系列新結果呢？

I can take this one. So in terms of churn for our rental subscription model for FaaS, we actually in Q4, we talked about the fact that we had an uptick in churn with regard to the seatpost we call and we saw that with FaaS as well. But we have seen it come down substantially from the high in Q4, roughly by 100 basis points. But it is still higher than our all access regular number of churn.

我可以接受這個問題。就我們 FaaS 租賃訂閱模式的用戶流失率而言，實際上在第四季度，我們談到我們稱之為座桿的流失率有所上升，FaaS 也出現了同樣的情況。但我們發現，該流失率已從第四季的高點大幅下降，大約下降了 100 個基點。但這仍然高於我們全接入模式的常規用戶流失率。

Now your other question, I think, was about just churn in general. And what we did see, if you remember, we did see an uptick in churn with regard to the bike's seat posts with the increase in (inaudible) numbers. We are seeing -- we saw our churn come down as people are unpausing and then also with regard to seasonality, and we expect to see our churn rates come down in Q2 and Q3 as well.

現在，我想您的另一個問題是關於整體客戶流失率的。如果您還記得的話，我們確實看到，隨著（聽不清楚）數量的增加，自行車座桿的客戶流失率上升。我們看到—隨著人們不再暫停騎行，以及季節性因素的影響，我們的客戶流失率下降，我們預計第二季和第三季的客戶流失率也會下降。

Spend a minute and talk about the changing mix of the subbase rejoins and the core all access members and growth in rental so that as the mix changes over time, people can.

花一點時間討論子基重新加入和核心所有訪問成員的變化組合以及租金的增長，以便隨著組合隨時間的變化，人們可以。

So overall, we do see slightly different -- we see different churn rates for these different types of Peloton subscribers. So we've got our regular all access members who purchased new hardware from us. And we've got the bike rental model for our rental subscribers. And then we have a third group, which is secondary market, which is people who decide to buy their hardware from someone else on a marketplace that we are not facilitating that sale. And it's generally -- it's used to hardware. So for our regular all access member base, we see the lowest churn rate in the low -- it obviously varies a bit seasonally, but it's the lowest, closer to 1 point, I don't have the exact number in front of me for that group.

所以總體來說，我們確實看到了一些細微的差別——不同類型的 Peloton 用戶流失率有所不同。我們的常規全能會員從我們這裡購買了新硬體。我們的租賃用戶則採用自行車租賃模式。然後，我們還有第三類用戶，即二級市場用戶，他們決定在我們沒有提供銷售服務的市場上向其他人購買硬體。這類用戶通常已經習慣硬體了。因此，對於我們的常規全能會員群體來說，我們發現流失率最低——雖然它顯然會受到一些季節性影響，但這是最低的，接近 1 個百分點。我目前還沒有這部分用戶的確切數字。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

This last quarter, yes, probably [1.4, 1.5-ish], a little less. Then we have the secondary market group, which actually has a higher churn rate, they are more in the [2, 2.5-ish] range. And then we have the bike rental group, which is more in the [5 to 6-ish] range over the seasonality of that group.

上個季度，是的，大概是[1.4到1.5左右]，稍微少一點。然後是二級市場，這個群體的流失率實際上更高，大致在[2到2.5左右]之間。最後是自行車租賃，這個族群的季節性變化幅度大致在[5到6左右]之間。

Just a minute talking about secondary market. That has grown pretty dramatically. And what's the source? It's Peloton all access member who canceled so they showed up in our churn numbers on average within 6 months, a bike is sold, let's use a bike is sold in the secondary market. Someone purchases that bike and they come to us and become an all-access member.

就說說二級市場吧。這個市場成長相當迅猛。它的來源是什麼？是那些取消了Peloton全能會員的，所以他們平均在6個月內就出現在了我們的流失數據中。一輛自行車被賣掉了，我們假設一輛自行車在二級市場上賣掉了。有人買了那輛腳踏車，然後他們來找我們，成為了全能會員。

And so -- as our core business continues to grow, the secondary market is growing even faster. It means that, let's call it, 1.4% churn rate on all access members actually really on a net basis is lower. And it means that (inaudible), it also means that our average churn rate, the reported average churn rate is going to go up if the secondary market continues to grow faster than the new sales market, even if the individual cohorts are behaving the way they have historically even if the long-term churn for all access members remains steady. And even if the all access -- even if the churn rate for secondary members remains steady. And so you want not to be alarmed if you see it increase gradually because of the mix change. If the cohorts deteriorate, we'll let you know.

因此，隨著我們核心業務的持續成長，二級市場的成長速度更快。這意味著，我們稱之為1.4%的全通路會員流失率，實際上在淨基礎上更低。這也意味著（聽不清楚），如果二級市場的成長速度繼續快於新銷售市場，我們的平均流失率，即報告的平均流失率，將會上升，即使各個群組的表現與以往一樣，即使全通路會員的長期流失率保持穩定。即使全通路會員的流失率——即使二級市場的流失率保持穩定。所以，如果您發現流失率因為組合變化而逐漸上升，您不必感到驚慌。如果群組的流失率下降，我們會告知您。

Our next question comes from Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP Securities 的 Andrew Boone。

I wanted to ask if there were any callouts on OpEx this quarter. And then as we think about the EBITDA guidance for the rest of the year, it implies a decline in OpEx in the back half. Can you just walk through any OpEx puts and takes that you may have -- and then can we touch on Peloton business. What needs to happen for Peloton business to really move the needle in terms of overall numbers?

我想問一下本季營運支出是否有任何變化。考慮到今年剩餘時間的EBITDA指引，這意味著下半年營運支出將會下降。您能否簡單介紹一下營運支出方面可能出現的損失和收益？然後我們能否談談Peloton的業務？ Peloton業務需要做些什麼才能真正推動整體業績的成長？

The business piece, do you want to do the first 2?

商業部分，你想做前兩個嗎？

So just some comments about OpEx. So we don't provide specific targets for OpEx, but we do expect our OpEx for the year to be below that of fiscal '23, despite the fact that we are investing more year-over-year in marketing so we expect our FY '24 GAAP G&A spending to be roughly $150 million lower than fiscal '23. The largest sources of savings are around legal, member support outside services. And then for R&D, remember the fact we have changed our capitalization policy with regard to R&D. So we are expensing a much larger portion versus in prior years, we capitalized more. If you combine both of those pieces, we expect to be about 10% to 12% on lower year-over-year spend in fiscal '24.

所以，我只是對營運支出（OpEx）做了一些評論。我們沒有設定具體的營運支出目標，但我們預計今年的營運支出將低於23財年的水平，儘管我們在行銷方面的投資逐年增加，因此我們預計24財年的GAAP G&A支出將比23財年減少約1.5億美元。最大的節省來源是法律、會員支援和外部服務。然後是研發，請記住，我們已經改變了研發的資本化政策。因此，與前幾年相比，我們的費用化比例大得多，資本化程度也更高。如果將這兩部分結合起來，我們預計24財年的支出將年減約10%到12%。

Now for sales and marketing, we do expect to be up year-over-year. That's driven by an increase spend on media, brand and creative. So actually, the marketing that drives subscriber acquisition, we will see that partially offset by lower retail costs as we continue to reduce our showroom footprint over the course of the year. Now you had called out on adjusted EBITDA that our guidance reflects lower OpEx. That's true with regard to marketing spend. What it also reflects, not to be missed is the fact that we do expect improvement in our gross margin as well.

就銷售和行銷而言，我們預計將同比增長。這得歸功於媒體、品牌和創意支出的增加。實際上，隨著我們在今年繼續減少展廳面積，推動用戶獲取的行銷支出將部分被零售成本的降低所抵消。您之前提到，調整後的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）反映了營運支出的下降。就行銷支出而言，情況確實如此。此外，不容忽視的是，我們也預期毛利率也會有所提升。

And with respect to Peloton business, this core belief that talent is foundational to the success of businesses. And we have seen an influx of senior seasoned talent who have management skills and relationships that are important to the future success in that business, and we have begun to see significant new traction in Peloton business and we will be seeing, I think, significant traction this fiscal year in corporate wellness as well, and you should expect to be hearing more about both from us as the year unfolds.

就Peloton業務而言，我們的核心信念是人才是企業成功的基礎。我們看到大量經驗豐富的高階人才湧入，他們擁有對公司未來成功至關重要的管理技能和人脈關係。我們已經開始看到Peloton業務取得顯著的新進展，我認為，本財年，企業健康方面也會有顯著的進展。隨著新的一年的到來，您應該會從我們這裡聽到更多關於這兩方面的消息。

Our next question comes from Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Edward Yruma。

Two quick ones for me. First, Barry, to go back to the sub commentary. So just so that we're crystal clear, is it your assessment today that the difficulty in conversion or the softness conversion is driven more by the marketing and some of the changes you've hopefully implemented. Or do you think that there are broader kind of price value issues with the paid tier. And then just -- it's been a little while since you guys have updated (inaudible). So I'd like to hear kind of how that device is selling and maybe any learnings from that.

我快速問兩個問題。首先，Barry，回到剛才的補充評論部分。為了讓我們更清楚地了解，您今天的看法是，轉換難度或軟度轉換難度更多是由行銷以及您希望實施的一些改變所驅動的嗎？還是您認為付費方案有更廣泛的價格價值問題？然後——你們已經有一段時間沒有更新了（聽不清楚）。所以，我想聽聽這款設備的銷售情況，以及從中可以學到什麼。

Do you want to do the commentary on conversion for apps, I don't think it's a price value conundrum but...

您想對應用程式的轉換進行評論嗎？我不認為這是一個價格價值難題，但是......

Yes. I think that become half of the product team but we have done amazing work continuing to evolve both of the experiences. The 3 app experiences is obviously with a relaunch new for us as a company. We had it prior, but it was more of a steady state. And we've learned a time. We've seen what they're drawn to, what they're not, what these new members are not drawn to, what they're using, what they're not using. And to the point before, we are now strategically shifting to paid and pay trial, so people can really get a taste of everything that Peloton has to offer versus sort of a smaller segment of our content as an example.

是的。我想這已經是產品團隊的一半了，但我們在持續改進這兩項體驗方面做得非常出色。這三種應用體驗顯然是對我們公司重新推出的全新體驗。我們之前就有過，但當時比較穩定。我們也累積了不少經驗。我們了解了他們喜歡什麼，不喜歡什麼，新會員不喜歡什麼，他們在用什麼，沒用什麼。就先前提到的這一點而言，我們現在正在策略性地轉向付費和試用，這樣人們就可以真正體驗到 Peloton 提供的所有內容，而不是像我們之前只提供一小部分內容。

So you're going to see us moving in parallel path. We're going to continue with the team, the product teams iterating on the 3 products as we continue to learn and drive traction on our paid as well.

所以你會看到我們沿著平行的路徑前進。我們將繼續與團隊和產品團隊一起迭代這三款產品，同時我們也將繼續學習，並推動付費產品的吸引力。

The perspective that I would contribute is a couple of things. One, I think we've had great success with driving growth in the paid app and at a higher price point than we were expecting. So I think for me, I'm persuaded that the price value proposition is working for consumers. What we weren't successful in doing is finding the right front door for free users and introducing them into the Peloton value proposition. Remember, our app was born as an adjunct to an all access membership for people who already understood what the value proposition was and how to engage with the service. .

我想分享幾點看法。首先，我認為我們在推動付費應用程式成長方面取得了巨大成功，而且價格也高於我們的預期。所以，我認為，就我個人而言，我相信價格價值主張對消費者來說是有效的。我們未能成功的地方在於，未能為免費用戶找到合適的入口，並讓他們了解 Peloton 的價值主張。請記住，我們的應用程式誕生之初，是作為全訪問會員制度的附屬品，面向那些已經了解價值主張以及如何使用服務的用戶。

And we shifted the focus for the free app of people who have no idea who were, arriving on our front door for the first time based on the marketing message and which brings us to [Nick Cobler]. So if you were to ask me, hey, like where do you think the real value add is in the foreseeable future, I would say it's everything e-commerce and everything app because that's the software challenge, that's a discovery challenge, that's a personalization challenge and that's just our ally. So I think there is more opportunity than risk for us. But I believe strongly that the price value proposition is being successful with app.

我們將重點轉移到免費應用程式上，面向那些根據行銷訊息首次來到我們家門口卻毫不知情的用戶，這也引出了尼克·科布勒。所以，如果你問我，嘿，你認為在可預見的未來，真正的增值在哪裡？我會說是一切電商和一切應用的結合，因為這是軟體方面的挑戰，是發現方面的挑戰，是個人化的挑戰，也是我們的盟友。所以我認為對我們來說，機會大於風險。但我堅信，價格價值主張對於應用程式的成功至關重要。

And then on rower really quickly?

然後很快就開始划船了？

I can take the question on rower. So rower actually is still a relatively small portion of our hardware sales today. But we were pleased to introduce it to the Canadian market last week, I mean, on 10/24. And we also achieved commercial certification of our rower in the U.S. on October 5. So we're excited to be able to bring that to the commercial market. And then in terms of our content for rower, we've recently started a beta test of some gaming content with Orgata, which is exciting for us to be able to test for that platform.

我可以回答關於 Rower 的問題。實際上，Rower 目前在我們硬體銷售中所佔的比例仍然相對較小。但我們很高興在上週，也就是 10 月 24 日，將它引入了加拿大市場。此外，我們還在 10 月 5 日在美國獲得了 Rower 的商業認證。因此，我們很高興能夠將它推向商業市場。關於 Rower 的內容，我們最近與 Orgata 合作開始了部分遊戲內容的 Beta 測試，能夠在該平台上進行測試，我們感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 John Blackledge。

Two questions on Tread+, what's the opportunity with the Tread+ relaunch? And is the cost of the Tread+ kind of a limiting factor, given the current macro conditions. And then secondly on the University program, you provided that example for the University of Michigan in the shareholder letter. Just wondering kind of how long does it take for all the facets of the program to get going, selling the hardware in the campus community, getting the rental program going, et cetera? And are there kind of hiring needs at Peloton to address this opportunity?

關於 Tread+ 的兩個問題：Tread+ 重新推出的機會是什麼？考慮到當前的宏觀經濟形勢，Tread+ 的成本是否會成為限制因素？其次，關於大學項目，您在致股東的信中提到了密西根大學的例子。我想知道，這個計畫的各個方面需要多長時間才能啟動，包括在校園社區銷售硬體、啟動租賃計畫等等？ Peloton 是否需要招募人才來抓住這個機會？

Let me talk about Tread+. It could be that in the current economic environment, it will fall flat. But I don't think that's going to be the case of all of the products that I've ever been exposed to at Peloton, the one single product that you couldn't pry out of the dead hands of members is the Tread+. I mean they are absolutely over-the-top, fanatically obsessed about the user experience on the Tread+. I mean, dramatically, exponentially, more emotionally engaged with that product than anything we've ever produced. And frankly, it's kind of that reaction that informs my belief that we're more likely than not to be successful in the reintroduction of that product.

我來談談Tread+。在當前的經濟環境下，它可能會遭遇慘敗。但我認為，在我接觸過的Peloton產品中，Tread+是唯一一款你無法從會員手中搶走的產品。我的意思是，他們對Tread+的使用者體驗極為痴迷，簡直到了極致。我的意思是，這款產品的情感投入比我們以往生產的任何產品都要強烈、倍增。坦白說，正是這種反應讓我相信，我們重新推出這款產品的可能性更大。

Yes. And then I'll jump in on Michigan. So thank you for the question and for mentioning sort of the full ecosystem of what we're trying to do with this partnership, it ranges from the student app, which is very obviously relevant to that core base, but also rental on campus the bike itself. And then we have marketing and brand integration, leveraging, including leveraging student athletes. So there's a lot to not do this partnership, but all of the partnership that we're going to be bringing to life, you will start to see in the next couple of weeks, the beginning of the Michigan partnership come to life, and then we will have drumbeat throughout next year at sort of key more relevant moment both for students, but also Alum and FaaS, both on-campus and off-campus as well.

是的。然後我來談談密西根大學。感謝您的提問，也感謝您提到我們試圖透過此次合作打造的完整生態系統，它涵蓋了學生應用程式（這顯然與核心用戶群息息相關），也包括校園自行車租賃。此外，我們也進行了行銷和品牌整合，並利用學生運動員等資源。雖然此次合作有很多內容，但我們將要實現的所有合作，您將在接下來的幾週內看到，與密西根大學的合作將開始生效。然後，我們將在明年這個對學生、校友和FaaS（校內校外）都至關重要的關鍵時刻大力推廣。

I think the most interesting thing about -- I'm going to ask and answer my own question here. Please bear with me for a minute. As Leslie and I have talked about the sort of the world's reaction to the announcement of Liverpool and Michigan. At one point in the conversation, she turned to me and said, you know -- and particularly after the announcement of the NBA, WNBA. There wasn't a brand in the world that we wanted to partner with wouldn't kill to partner with Peloton now and people have been beating down our door to talk about different ways to work with us.

我認為最有趣的事情是——我要在這裡提出並回答我自己的問題。請耐心聽我一分鐘。正如萊斯利和我討論過的那樣，全世界對利物浦和密西根宣布合作的反應。在談話中，她轉向我說，你知道——尤其是在NBA和WNBA宣布合作之後。世界上沒有一個品牌是我們想要合作的，現在我們不想和Peloton合作，人們一直在敲我們的門，討論與我們合作的各種方式。

So I was trying to convey in the letter, some of that enthusiasm and energy, I'm not sure I've succeeded but there is enormous opportunity for us here. The costs, at least so far have been, I would say, modest to quite reasonable. And it opens up a number of potential growth factors for us both to increase in unaided awareness to the opportunities that associated with these great brands and at least in the case of the NBA gives us access to stream content, which helps members discover other stream content on the platform to a degree that we haven't been able to do for ourselves today, thinking about the entertainment section of our content. Anything you want to add to that?

所以我想在這封信中傳達一些熱情和活力。我不確定我是否成功了，但這對我們來說是巨大的機會。至少到目前為止，我認為成本是適中的，甚至相當合理。這為我們帶來了許多潛在的成長因素，讓我們能夠提升對這些偉大品牌相關機會的認知度，至少就NBA而言，它讓我們能夠訪問串流媒體內容，這可以幫助會員在平台上發現其他串流媒體內容，而這在某種程度上是我們今天無法做到的，想想我們內容中的娛樂部分。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I was going to just say on the entertainment piece, there is a ton of pent-up interest in this area. We've been in beta for quite a while. We have not marketed it even to our members. And so there's a lot of organic trends that we're seeing, especially around trends -- excuse me, around Tread where people just want to consume different types of content as they work out. So it really expands our offering in a really powerful way. And again, goes back to different demographics that we're trying to reach. So certainly, through NBA league pass, we're really excited to bring entertainment and that partnership specifically to life in the next couple of weeks.

不，我只是想說，關於娛樂方面，人們對這個領域有著巨大的興趣。我們的測試版已經持續了一段時間，甚至還沒有向會員推廣。因此，我們看到了許多自然而然的趨勢，尤其是圍繞Tread的趨勢——不好意思，是圍繞著Tread，人們在鍛鍊時想消費不同類型的內容。所以，它真的以一種非常強大的方式擴展了我們的服務範圍。這又回到了我們試圖觸達的不同人群。所以，透過NBA League Pass，我們非常高興能夠在接下來的幾週內將娛樂和這項合作帶到現實生活中。

Our next question comes from Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Simeon Siegel。

Just any color you can share on engagement across the various degree of users? I assume you have some strong power users, maybe periodic users, probably some who don't use that often. So just any help thinking through how you look at your own, how you segment your own engagement for the sub base? And then maybe just what percent of current subscribers currently have multiple pieces of connected equipment? And do you see that as a further opportunity.

能分享一下不同用戶群參與度的指標嗎？我假設您有一些強大的重度用戶，可能是定期用戶，也可能有一些不經常使用的用戶。所以，您能否幫助我們思考如何看待自己的使用者群體，如何根據細分人群劃分參與度？此外，目前有多少比例的現有用戶擁有多台連網設備？您是否認為這是一個進一步的機會？

I -- let's see. As many different ways as you can imagine, we segment the user base in terms of engagement both for subscriptions and both for members per subscription. We don't provide any color for it, mostly because (inaudible) into the business and each question we answer would result in a new question and would end up being like the book give them out of cookie. So one -- thing one. Thing two, I think we're in the very early innings of having a deep understanding of how it is that personalization and the use of AI with personalization can drive the increased user satisfaction and engagement across the membership and across different geographies.

我……讓我想想。我們用你能想到的各種不同方式，根據訂閱參與度和每個訂閱的會員人數來細分用戶群。我們沒有提供任何具體信息，主要是因為（聽不清楚）我們深入研究了這個業務，我們回答的每一個問題都會引發一個新的問題，最終就像書裡給他們餅乾一樣。所以第一點。第二點，我認為我們正處於非常早期的階段，對個人化以及將人工智慧與個人化結合使用如何推動不同地區和不同會員群體的用戶滿意度和參與度的深入理解。

And we really have only just begun and I haven't deep understanding of the power of that from my experience, both at Spotify and Netflix. And there's a lot of open field running, I think, that we have the opportunity to do here. Two, I think there are -- as Leslie's team is successful in drawing in new demographics to the platform, LatinX by way of sample.

我們真的才剛起步，從我在 Spotify 和 Netflix 的經驗來看，我對這個模式的威力還沒有深入的理解。我認為，我們有很多機會在這裡進行開放式的嘗試。其次，我認為——萊斯利的團隊成功地吸引了新的用戶群加入平台，其中就包括拉丁裔。

There -- it's important that we'd be aligned internally, let's say, by way of example, with respect to our content programming, so that the content we're making can be discovered by and is relevant to the demos that we're driving to the platform, maybe for the first time, right? It wouldn't make any sense or Leslie to suddenly be driving a large proportion of LatinX against the platform if we're not successful in servicing our LatinX relevant programming on the platform, and we have a lot of it. I think they're -- point one.

重要的是，我們要在內部保持一致，比如說，就內容規劃而言，這樣我們製作的內容才能被我們吸引到平台上的受眾發現，並且與他們息息相關，這或許是第一次，對吧？如果我們不能成功地在平台上提供與拉丁裔相關的內容，那麼突然吸引大量拉丁裔用戶反對這個平台就毫無意義了，而我們平台上有很多這樣的內容。我認為他們——第一點。

Point two, I think there are opportunities for us to lean in to some user segments that maybe recently, we've underserved -- we've seen a big growth in our PML population. We have great programming services to them. I think there's an opportunity for us to lean a little heavy, a little heavily -- more heavily performance, which we have done historically but a little less of lately. So it's mostly about overly simplistic say, polishing the apple, but it's mostly about ensuring that we're aligned. And that as we flex the business model, we make the resource allocation decisions we need to make to capitalize on the opportunities we've seen.

第二點，我認為我們有機會去服務一些我們最近服務不足的使用者群體－我們的PML使用者群體大幅成長。我們為他們提供了優質的程式服務。我認為我們有機會更專注地關注性能，我們過去一直這樣做，但最近有所減少。所以，這主要是為了簡單地說是“擦亮蘋果”，但主要是為了確保我們保持一致。在我們調整商業模式的同時，我們會做出必要的資源分配決策，以利用我們所看到的機會。

On the question about multiple pieces of hardware. We it's actually a relatively small percentage of our sub base that has more than one piece of Peloton hardware less than 10%, although that is increasing. And as we said before, the vast majority of our bikes go to new subscribers. We see higher overlap with trends, larger percentage of them going to existing relative to bike. And then also with the rower, we see a higher percentage of them going to existing members who have another piece of hardware as well.

關於多件硬體的問題。實際上，在我們的訂閱用戶群中，擁有多件Peloton硬體的用戶比例相對較小，不到10%，儘管這個數字正在上升。正如我們之前所說，我們的自行車絕大多數都賣給了新用戶。我們發現，與趨勢的重疊度更高，其中有更大比例的自行車流向了現有用戶，而不是自行車。此外，對於划船器，我們發現有更高比例的划船器流向了擁有其他硬體的現有用戶。

One point I'll just add on the question earlier is around NPS, which continues to remain strong across all of our demos. It's something that we track, obviously, very carefully, especially given the power of word of mouth and referrals for the business.

關於之前的問題，我想補充一點，關於NPS（淨推薦值），它在我們所有的演示中都保持著強勁的成長勢頭。我們當然會非常仔細地追蹤它，尤其是考慮到口碑和推薦對業務的影響力。

The only comment I make about multiple platforms is the more platforms you have in your home, the lower your churn tends to be.

我對多平台的唯一評論是，你家裡的平台越多，你的客戶流失率就越低。

And our last question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Truist 的 Youssef Squali。

All right. Great. 2-parter please. Barry. So in the letter, you talked about 75,000 subs for the fast service by the end of the year. We're having somewhat of a hard problem contextualizing that out of the universe of about 3 million. How is the rental business doing relative to your own expectations? It seems to me that given such a great value proposition, maybe 75,000 is a little number, but I'm not really sure. So I'd love to know how that service is performing to your own expectations. And maybe relative to that, are the unit economics of that service clear enough for you after maybe -- I don't know, to be now for maybe 18 months now that you can maybe leave me a lot more aggressively? Or are the unit economics still kind of coming in to kind of getting clearer, but they're not giving you enough confidence to win very aggressively.

好的。太好了，請分兩部分。巴里。所以在信中，您提到了到年底快速服務的訂閱用戶數量將達到7.5萬人。我們很難將這個數字與大約300萬的訂閱用戶進行比較。租賃業務的表現與您的預期相比如何？在我看來，考慮到如此高的價值主張，7.5萬可能有點小，但我不太確定。所以我很想知道這項服務的表現與您的期望相比如何。相對於您的預期，這項服務的單位經濟效益是否足夠清晰——我不知道，大概18個月後，您是否可以更積極地給我一些時間？或者，單位經濟效益仍在逐漸明朗，但它們並沒有給您足夠的信心讓您以非常積極的方式贏得勝利。

Youssef, thanks for the question. So I have been cautious in our management of the growth of FaaS and have on and off even in the last quarter taking steps to dampen down some of the growth because I certainly early on was less certain about the future economics of it as we were still learning with the churn characteristics were going to be and having a deeper understanding of what the payback period would look like. I mean, of course, we had early data, but I wasn't confident that the early data would be representative of the market as we sold more units. What is abundantly clear to me is that we have the opportunity to grow it significantly faster than we have, and it's been growing pretty fast.

Youssef，謝謝你的提問。我一直對FaaS的成長持謹慎態度，甚至在上個季度也斷斷續續地採取措施抑製成長，因為早期我對它未來的經濟效益不太確定，當時我們還在摸索客戶流失的特徵，對投資回收期也還有更深入的理解。當然，我們有早期數據，但隨著我們銷售的增加，我並不確定這些數據是否能夠代表市場。對我來說，非常清楚的是，我們有機會以比現在更快的速度成長，而且它現在的成長速度也相當快。

So if I were to step out of the way, so to speak, it would already be a bigger business than I have allowed it to become. So and we've taken some steps to accelerate the growth we -- not to give too much color. But we took up the forecast by 20 percentage points of growth just by agreeing to change some of the tactics internally. And honestly, we could grow faster. So now in terms of the unit economics, we have a fair amount of control over how we dial the outcome, a couple of factors that can -- that inform us about how to do that, it's one, the mix of certified preowned and new. And then secondly, the mix of Bike and Bike+. And so as we turn those trials, we have a significant opportunity to dial up and down the payback profile and the unit economics. Anything you want to contribute to that?

所以，如果我不插手的話，可以說，它現在的業務規模已經超出了我的預期。我們已經採取了一些措施來加速成長——我不想透露太多細節。但我們僅僅透過同意在內部調整一些策略，就將預期的成長提高了20個百分點。說實話，我們本來可以成長得更快。所以，現在就單位經濟效益而言，我們對如何控制結果有了相當大的控制權，有幾個因素可以告訴我們該如何做到這一點，首先是認證二手車和新車的組合。其次是自行車和自行車+的組合。因此，隨著這些試點的推進，我們有很大機會調整投資報酬率和單位經濟效益。您有什麼想為此貢獻的嗎？

Sure. I'd like to contribute. I want to say a couple of things. So our payback period for FaaS, which we've talked about before, being in the roughly 18 to 20-month ranges. We are there today. We're in the 18-month range. Until we see opportunity to improve that by reducing churn rates. And we're looking at ways that we can do that. I want to call out that one program, that one option that we have for people who rent, we find that -- first of all, we find that it's over 60% incremental. That's important to comment. So that means that 60% of the people at least or more would not have joined Peloton if they didn't have this option to rent the Bike without a commitment. And that's true both in the U.S. It's true, we're seeing in Canada. We're seeing it in Germany. That is true for -- it's highly incremental in all of the markets, the fastest participating in today.

當然，我想貢獻幾點。我想說幾句。我們之前提到過，FaaS 的投資回收期大約在 18 到 20 個月之間。現在我們也在這個範圍內，大約在 18 個月左右。直到我們發現有機會透過降低客戶流失率來改善回收期。我們正在尋找可以做到這一點的方法。我想提一下我們為租賃用戶提供的那個項目，我們發現——首先，我們發現它的增量超過 60%。這一點很重要。這意味著，如果沒有這個無需承諾即可租賃自行車的選擇，至少 60% 或更多的人不會加入 Peloton。在美國、加拿大和德國都是如此。在所有市場中，它的增量都非常大，是目前參與速度最快的。

Sorry -- and that's an example where I continue to put my foot on the cap to break from time to time, while we continue to test the validity of the incrementality.

抱歉——這是一個例子，在我們繼續測試增量有效性的同時，我會不時地繼續踩下煞車。

Yes. And another thing that we have not really leaned in on, but we are going to start to do, which would help the economics of the FaaS program is improving our buyout rate. So today, if you want -- we offer you an opportunity to purchase if you're ready to commit to buy out your Peloton Bike rental but the only way that you can do it is it's a very cumbersome manual process where you have to call our member support to figure out how to do it. And we're about to launch shortly a self-service process to be able to do that. And we're excited about learning how that performs over the holidays, especially because we'll have opportunities for incentives on buyouts over the course of holidays.

是的。還有一件事我們還沒有真正著手，但我們正在著手做，這將有助於提升FaaS專案的經濟效益，那就是提高我們的買斷率。所以今天，如果您願意—如果您準備買斷您的Peloton Bike租賃服務，我們為您提供購買的機會。但您唯一能做到的方式是，這是一個非常繁瑣的手動流程，您必須致電我們的會員支援來了解如何操作。我們即將推出一個自助服務流程來實現這一點。我們很期待了解這項服務在假期期間的表現，尤其是因為我們將有機會在假期期間為買斷用戶提供激勵措施。

Of course, if you think about that, if people try the Bike, they don't want a commitment at first, but then at some point, they're ready to commit, that's great for us because we move them to being a regular all access member down to that different churn curve that we talked about earlier with the much lower churn rate. So there is some opportunity there. Again, that's a learning for us, buyout rate is pretty small today, but we haven't optimized it and we're going to be working on that.

當然，想想看，如果人們嘗試使用 Bike，他們一開始並不想做出承諾，但到了某個時候，他們就準備好承諾了，這對我們來說是件好事，因為我們把他們變成了普通的全能會員，讓他們能夠享受到我們之前提到的不同流失曲線，流失率會低得多。所以這裡面存在一些機會。同樣，這對我們來說也是一個教訓，目前的購買率很低，但我們還沒有優化它，我們會努力改進。

Now let's imagine a world where it's $500 million worth of rental revenue. So that requires -- that is a different working capital profile than the core business and requires a different capital structure, which is among the reasons that I keep tapping the break to make sure we know exactly what it is we're talking about. If we're going to go flat out to grow this business because I'm fairly confident that if we took all the breaks off -- it would really go. So before you let it loose in the wild, we better know what we're doing, if that makes sense.

現在讓我們想像一下，如果租金收入達到5億美元，那會是怎樣一番景象。這就需要──與核心業務不同的營運資本配置，也需要不同的資本結構。這也是我不斷強調「暫停」的原因之一，以確保我們確切地了解我們所說的話究竟是什麼。如果我們要全力以赴地發展這項業務，我相當有信心，如果我們取消所有「暫停」——它真的會發展起來。所以，在放手一搏之前，我們最好先了解自己在做什麼，如果這說得通的話。

Yes, that makes total sense. And you think within the next 12 months, we should get to that place where we have enough visibility to let the dogs out?

是的，這很有道理。你覺得在接下來的12個月裡，我們應該能到達一個能見度夠高的地方，讓狗狗們出去嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Peter Stabler for any closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想把電話轉回給彼得·斯特布勒，請他做最後發言。

Thanks, everyone, for your time today. We'll talk to you next quarter. Have a good day.

謝謝大家今天的寶貴時間。我們下個季度再見。祝大家今天愉快。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。現在可以掛斷電話了。