派樂騰 (PTON) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Peloton Interactive 1Q '24 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Peloton Interactive 24 年第一季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations.

請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人、投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler。

Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's First Quarter Fiscal 2024 Conference Call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy; CFO, Liz Coddington; and Chief Marketing Officer, Leslie Berland. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

早安，歡迎參加 Peloton 2024 財年第一季電話會議。加入今天電話會議的還有執行長巴里·麥卡錫 (Barry McCarthy)；財務長莉茲‧科丁頓；首席行銷長萊斯利·伯蘭 (Leslie Berland)。我們對您問題的評論和答覆僅反映管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的聲明，這些聲明屬於聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。

For a discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter. I'll now turn the call over to Barry McCarthy.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了公認會計準則和非公認會計準則財務指標的調節表。我現在將把電話轉給巴里·麥卡錫。

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. In a break with tradition, I invited Leslie Berland to join us knowing that growth is on everyone's mind. And this begins a process whereby in future calls from time to time. You can expect me to invite into the room, other operating executives so that you have an opportunity to gain exposure to them and they have an opportunity to gain exposure to you. And you can hear firsthand from them about different aspects of how the business is being operated. And with that, we'll open the phones to questions, Josh.

大家，早安。感謝您加入我們。我打破了傳統，邀請 Leslie Berland 加入我們，因為我知道每個人都關心成長。這開始了一個在未來不時調用的過程。您可以期待我邀請其他營運管理人員進入房間，以便您有機會接觸他們，他們也有機會接觸您。您可以從他們那裡直接聽到有關業務運作方式的不同方面的資訊。接下來，我們將打開電話提問，喬許。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Doug Anmuth。

I have 2. Just first, you have a number of different growth initiatives going. Just as you think about your forecast for revenue growth and positive EBITDA and substantial free cash flow in the back half of the fiscal year. Can you just help us rank the 2 to 3 biggest drivers across these various initiatives? And then secondly, how do you think about timing for the lululemon partnership to benefit the business just given access to their large membership base.

我有 2 個。首先，你們有許多不同的成長計劃正在進行。正如您對本財年後半段營收成長、正 EBITDA 和大量自由現金流的預測。您能否幫助我們對這些不同舉措中 2 到 3 個最大的驅動因素進行排名？其次，您如何看待與 lululemon 合作的時機，讓剛獲得龐大會員基礎的企業受益。

Jump in on the drivers? Do you want to take it? Well, let's see, from my perspective, with respect to the drivers, a couple of things. One is we're going to reintroduce the Tread+ this quarter and began taking preorders and that will be -- if we're successful, that will be a big driver of incremental cash flow and revenue for us. Remember, we have all of that inventory in warehouse already and fully paid for and have set before I walked in the door. So that would be thing one.

加入司機？你想拿走嗎？好吧，從我的角度來看，關於司機，有幾件事。一是我們將在本季重新推出 Tread+ 並開始接受預訂，如果我們成功，這將成為我們現金流和收入增量的一大推動力。請記住，在我進門之前，我們已經將倉庫中的所有庫存全部付清並設置完畢。所以這就是第一件事。

Thing 2 is continued success growing app-related subscribers. And I'm sure we'll have more questions about how we're thinking about that opportunity on a go-forward basis. And then we need to continue to have success with the core -- all access membership. But I think our growth projections are reasonably conservative in that regard. So that time thinking about the growth initiatives in terms of lululemon, that's live. And we are benefiting from it as we speak. So actually nothing more to say about the economics of that on a go-forward basis.

第二件事是不斷成功地增加與應用程式相關的訂閱者。我相信我們會對未來如何考慮這個機會有更多的疑問。然後我們需要繼續在核心——所有准入會員方面取得成功。但我認為我們的成長預測在這方面相當保守。因此，考慮 lululemon 的成長計劃時，這就是即時的。正如我們所說，我們正在從中受益。因此，實際上，關於未來的經濟效益，沒有更多可說的了。

Yes. The one thing I can add on lululemon is that we just started having our content available for the lululemon studio members who have a mirror that actually went live yesterday on November 1. And so as far as receiving the revenue sharing benefit from that agreement that we have with lulu that started effective in November. And we expect roughly to give you a sense of the size for the quarter, roughly about $10 million of revenue for Q2 coming from that subscription revenue for us.

是的。我可以在lululemon 上補充的一件事是，我們剛開始向lululemon 工作室成員提供我們的內容，這些成員擁有昨天11 月1 日實際上線的鏡子。因此，就從該協議中獲得收入分享利益而言，我們與lulu一起，從11月開始生效。我們預計能讓您大致了解本季的規模，第二季約 1,000 萬美元的營收來自我們的訂閱收入。

There is an apparel component to it. It started phenomenally strongly and then an initial launch in Chicago. We drove a tremendous amount of store traffic for them, a huge increase in apparel sales for us. And we'll be working on a more complete integration of that opportunity, and that will be a little slower to develop over time.

其中有服裝成分。它一開始非常強勁，然後在芝加哥首次推出。我們為他們帶來了大量的商店客流量，為我們帶來了服裝銷售的大幅成長。我們將致力於更完整地整合該機會，隨著時間的推移，開發速度會稍微慢一些。

Our next question comes from Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria。

Okay. Could you please talk about the promotion environment this year versus last year? And any change in your strategy in terms of running promotions this year, length of time, the depth of promotions. Any comments on that, please? And then the second is, how should we think about your guidance for the quarter and for the full year, puts and takes that are baked into -- or the assumptions that are baked into your guidance? And any potential what impact from these new partnerships are you accounting for in your guidance for the full year?

好的。請您談談今年的促銷環境與去年相比？以及您今年促銷策略、促銷時間長度、促銷深度的任何變化。請問對此有何評論？第二個問題是，我們應該如何考慮您對本季和全年的指導，以及納入您的指導的假設？您在全年指導中考慮了這些新夥伴關係的潛在影響嗎？

Let me say just a brief intro, I'll turn it over to Leslie to talk about our thoughts about the promo environment for the current quarter. And Liz will take the last part of the question. So I think I'm right on a Q-over-Q basis for the quarter completed, we had a higher ASP, and we're less on promotion than we were a year ago. We were higher by 3%, something like that. So -- and so that reflected in the improvement in gross margin on a year-over-year basis and the 31% increase in gross profit that helped deliver in the quarter. You want to talk about that holiday?

讓我簡單介紹一下，我會把它交給 Leslie 來談談我們對本季促銷環境的想法。莉茲將回答問題的最後一部分。因此，我認為就已完成季度的季度環比而言，我的說法是正確的，我們的平均售價更高，而且我們的促銷活動比一年前要少。我們高了 3%，類似的事情。這反映在毛利率的同比改善以及幫助本季實現的毛利成長 31% 上。你想談談那個假期嗎？

Yes, absolutely. Happy to be on the call. I think we're very excited as we embark on holiday and we always bring exciting value to both our members and new customers as well. I think what's interesting to also mention is how we bring these promotions to life. So we've really learned a lot over the past couple of months, around digital and social media marketing and specifically creator and influencer marketing, which really reframes and contextualizes both this value as well as the promotion. So we're seeing really strong traction in all of our work in this space, and you will absolutely see this come to life during holiday.

是的，一點沒錯。很高興能接聽電話。我認為當我們開始度假時我們非常興奮，我們總是為我們的會員和新客戶帶來令人興奮的價值。我認為值得一提的是我們如何將這些促銷活動付諸實行。因此，在過去的幾個月裡，我們在數位和社群媒體行銷，特別是創作者和影響者行銷方面確實學到了很多東西，這確實重新建構了這一價值以及促銷活動並使其背景化。因此，我們在這個領域的所有工作中都看到了非常強大的吸引力，您絕對會在假期期間看到這一點。

The other part I'll mention is you read in the shareholder letter around our partnerships. Much of our partnership work is starting to take form at the exact same time and NBA being an example, Michigan as well. So there's a great sort of coming together of all these initiatives in the next few months.

我要提到的另一部分是您在有關我們合作夥伴關係的股東信中閱讀的內容。我們的大部分合作夥伴關係工作都是在同一時間開始形成的，NBA 就是一個例子，密西根州也是如此。因此，在接下來的幾個月裡，所有這些舉措都會得到很好的整合。

Okay. So I'm going to go ahead and take the question about guidance for Q2 and the full year. So our Q2 guidance reflects what I believe to be a balanced view based on the macroeconomic outlook. In fact, that there is some uncertainty around the performance in the holiday season but it does reflect a few things. So I want to call out that it does reflect seasonality of our hardware sales, the fact that Q2 is a heavier hardware sales quarter for us seasonally, given all the holiday promotional activity.

好的。因此，我將繼續回答有關第二季度和全年指導的問題。因此，我們第二季的指導反映了我認為基於宏觀經濟前景的平衡觀點。事實上，假期期間的表現存在一些不確定性，但這確實反映了一些事情。因此，我想指出，它確實反映了我們硬體銷售的季節性，事實上，考慮到所有的假日促銷活動，第二季對我們來說是一個季節性較大的硬體銷售季度。

It's also a quarter where we expect to see surprisingly an improvement and maybe not surprisingly, improvement in our Connected Fitness gross margin. And some of the reasons for that, and our overall gross margin is coming down seasonally as you would expect, but Connected Fitness is actually going to be up in part because of fixed cost leverage that we expect to have from the higher Connected Fitness unit sales.

我們預計在這個季度我們的 Connected Fitness 毛利率將出現令人驚訝的改善，也許並不令人驚訝。造成這種情況的一些原因是，我們的整體毛利率正如您所預期的那樣季節性下降，但 Connected Fitness 實際上會上升，部分原因是我們預計 Connected Fitness 單位銷售額的增加將帶來固定成本槓桿。

And we also expect a slight mix shift away from our bike rental relative to Q1 because we expect our rental take rates to be a little lower, driven by the fact that we will have the high promotional activity in the quarter. And then in addition to that, that is offset by some holiday promotional activities. But net-net, we expect it to be slightly higher. Our adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects the fact that we will have seasonal marketing spend to support the holiday season.

我們也預計，相對於第一季度，我們的自行車租賃會出現輕微的混合變化，因為我們預計，由於本季度我們將進行大量促銷活動，我們的租賃費率會稍低一些。除此之外，一些節慶促銷活動也抵消了這項影響。但淨淨值，我們預計會略高。我們調整後的 EBITDA 指引反映了這樣一個事實：我們將有季節性行銷支出來支持假期季節。

It's important to understand that, that media spend actually supports growth in both Q2 as well as Q3. So the timing of that is reflected in the adjusted EBITDA guidance.

重要的是要了解，媒體支出實際上支持了第二季和第三季的成長。因此，這一時間點反映在調整後的 EBITDA 指導中。

Now you had asked about partnerships. The way that we are thinking about these partnerships is they are just getting started. So there's not really an implicit benefit baked into our guidance for subscribers directly as a result of a lot of these partnerships in Q2.

現在您詢問了合作夥伴關係。我們考慮這些合作關係的方式是它們才剛開始。因此，由於第二季的許多合作關係，我們對訂戶的指導並沒有真正產生隱性的好處。

The one thing that I called out earlier about lululemon would be the exception to that and so we will -- as we build out these partnerships and the structures take to take -- start to take shape and we gain more traction, we'll be incorporating more of that into perhaps future quarters of guidance.

我之前提到的關於 lululemon 的一件事是例外，所以當我們建立這些合作夥伴關係和需要採取的結構時，我們將開始成形，我們會獲得更多的吸引力，我們將將更多內容納入未來幾季的指導中。

Now for the full year, I want to call out a couple of things. Our back half of the year forecast reflects the fact that we expect to see revenue growth acceleration in Q2 and Q3. If you also look at our gross margin that we're targeting for the full year, that also reflects the fact that our Q3 and Q4 gross margins are expected to be higher, and a lot of that is driven by the fact that in addition to the mix shift between subscription and hardware sales, we do expect to see some benefit, as Barry called out earlier from the reintroduction of Tread+. But I do want to call out that we -- that is a new launch for us. There is some uncertainty baked into our guidance around it and the performance of the second half of the year.

現在，對於全年的情況，我想指出幾件事。我們對下半年的預測反映了我們預期第二季和第三季營收成長加速的事實。如果您也看一下我們全年的毛利率目標，這也反映了我們第三季和第四季的毛利率預計會更高的事實，而這在很大程度上是由以下事實推動的：正如巴里早些時候在重新推出Tread+ 時所指出的那樣，訂閱和硬體銷售之間的混合轉變，我們確實預計會看到一些好處。但我確實想指出，這對我們來說是一次新的推出。我們對此的指導和下半年的表現存在一些不確定性。

Our next question comes from Ron Josey with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I wanted to ask a little bit more about engagement trends as Barry in the letter, you talked about an increase in monthly subscription engagement in the quarter and members engaging with longer classes. Do you think that has to do with more of a seasonal usage pattern? Or just Peloton's strategy of being everywhere -- anywhere and everywhere and with longer and more types of class that are coming out. And curious how you use this trend of greater engagement to just improve overall brand. And with Leslie here, maybe you can help us a little bit more just about brand perception and what we're doing to increase that over time.

我想多詢問一下參與度趨勢，因為巴里在信中談到了本季每月訂閱參與度的增加以及會員參加更長課程的情況。您認為這與季節性使用模式有關嗎？或者只是 Peloton 的無處不在的策略——任何地方、任何地方，並且即將推出更長、更多類型的課程。很好奇您如何利用這種更高參與度的趨勢來改善整體品牌。萊斯利在這裡，也許你可以在品牌認知度以及我們正在採取哪些措施來提高品牌認知度方面為我們提供更多幫助。

Well, the 6% increase in engagement amongst the all access subscribers is year-over-year. So it's not a seasonal trend. And Liz, correct me if I'm wrong, I think it's 12% year-over-year for app engagement as well. So I think it reflects some progress on personalization of continued great execution by Jen Cotter and her content team. And the preferences of the members. So if we're programming our class as well, and if more people are taking longer classes, it's because they're choosing to and we're producing enough of them and enabling them to discover them on the platform in a way that better serves their interest.

嗯，所有接入訂戶的參與度同比增長了 6%。所以這不是季節性趨勢。 Liz，如果我錯了，請糾正我，我認為應用程式參與度也比去年同期成長 12%。因此，我認為這反映了 Jen Cotter 和她的內容團隊在持續出色執行的個人化方面取得了一些進展。以及會員的喜好。因此，如果我們也在對我們的課程進行編程，如果更多的人參加更長的課程，那是因為他們選擇這樣做，而我們正在製作足夠的課程，並使他們能夠以更好的方式在平台上發現它們他們的興趣。

I do want to correct one thing really quick. The 6% includes both the Connected Fitness and the app subscribers total for app for engagement.

我確實想盡快糾正一件事。這 6% 包括 Connected Fitness 和參與應用程式的應用程式訂閱者總數。

Our next question comes from Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自安妮莎謝爾曼和伯恩斯坦。

Two questions for me, please. The first one is on inventory. So as you're continuing to clear inventory, what is the normalized level of hardware gross margins you think the business can get to? I know you've talked about double-digit underlying margins. Does that view change now with the growth of FaaS in the mix? And then I have a quick question on Pop. You took an impairment of $31 million. Can you give us an update on the work being done on that and what you're expecting as the outcome? Are you still expecting a sale?

請問我兩個問題。第一個是庫存。那麼，當您繼續清理庫存時，您認為業務可以達到的硬體毛利率正常水平是多少？我知道您談到了兩位數的基礎利潤。隨著 FaaS 的發展，這種觀點現在會改變嗎？然後我有一個關於波普的簡短問題。您損失了 3100 萬美元。您能否向我們介紹一下正在進行的工作的最新情況以及您對結果的期望？您還期待銷售嗎？

So I can take the question on Pop first. In the quarter, we actually took an impairment of only $15 million in this particular quarter. So we are still looking to sell Pop. We are talking to a variety of interested parties, and we hope to have -- hope to be able to sell it soon, but we are still working on that.

所以我可以先回答關於 Pop 的問題。在本季度，我們實際上僅提列了 1500 萬美元的減損。所以我們仍在考慮出售 Pop。我們正在與各種有興趣的各方進行談判，我們希望能夠盡快出售它，但我們仍在努力。

On the other question, which was related to inventory and normalized hardware gross margins. We do expect to see -- so we are moving into a more normalized inventory position. We've been purchasing inventory as we prepare for the holiday season. And I did want to comment about the fact that in Q1, it was a use of cash. And in Q2 to Q4, we expect to have a bit of a tailwind on inventory. But by the end of the year, we expect to be pretty normalized with regards to inventory and the seasonal cash flow that the business is accustom to or has been historically accustom to.

關於另一個問題，這與庫存和標準化硬體毛利率有關。我們確實希望看到 - 因此我們正在進入更正常化的庫存狀況。在為假期做準備時，我們一直在購買庫存。我確實想評論第一季使用現金的事實。在第二季度到第四季度，我們預計庫存將會增加。但到今年年底，我們預計庫存和企業已經習慣或歷史上習慣的季節性現金流將相當正常化。

Now in terms of gross margin, we are seeing some benefit on the fact that we are moving into that more normalized inventory position. We don't expect to have any more write-offs of inventory. We'll be able to better manage our reserves. And then we do have on a unit economic basics is excluding promotions, all of our SKUs are a double-digit gross margin positive aside from the guide.

現在就毛利率而言，我們看到了一些好處，因為我們正在進入更標準化的庫存狀況。我們預計不會再有更多的庫存沖銷。我們將能夠更好地管理我們的儲備。然後，我們確實有一個單位經濟基礎，不包括促銷，除了指導之外，我們所有的 SKU 毛利率均為兩位數。

Okay. Can you talk about how the impact of FaaS might change the normalized gross margins going forward?

好的。您能否談談 FaaS 的影響可能如何改變未來的標準化毛利率？

Yes. So let me -- so a little bit about FaaS. So -- from the -- in terms of the impact on gross margin in Q1, FaaS was less than 10 basis points impact on our overall gross margin. So relative to the size of FaaS compared to the overall size of our business, it's a bit of a drag, but not a huge drag on gross margin. The reason that FaaS impacts our gross margin is because of -- mainly because of the fact when people join FaaS, they pay a fee for the delivery and we are cost to deliver that hardware is more expensive than the actual delivery charge that we charge to the customer. And so as we grow that part of the business, you see that impact to gross margin in the first month of the FaaS subscription.

是的。讓我簡單介紹一下 FaaS。因此，從第一季對毛利率的影響來看，FaaS 對我們整體毛利率的影響不到 10 個基點。因此，相對於 FaaS 的規模與我們業務的整體規模相比，這有點拖累，但對毛利率的拖累並不大。 FaaS 影響我們毛利率的原因是——主要是因為當人們加入 FaaS 時，他們需要支付交付費用，而我們交付硬體的成本比我們收取的實際交付費用更貴客戶。因此，當我們發展這部分業務時，您會在 FaaS 訂閱的第一個月看到毛利率受到的影響。

Our next question comes from Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的艾瑞克·謝裡丹。

Maybe 2, if I could. In terms of FaaS, has there anything you've learned so far on the subscription side that we might see you extend out subscription options into other connected fitness hardware products over time? I'm thinking around elements of relaunching Tread and trying to come back to market with that with maybe a new messaging. That will be number one. And then I just want to make sure we understand the messages on the app strategy and what you're seeing. In terms of applying marketing dollars and ROI, how would you characterize the success you've had in terms of the free tier of the application layer versus the paid tier and elements of all the conversion funnel continues to sort of evolve for the application strategy.

如果可以的話，也許是 2 個。就 FaaS 而言，到目前為止，您在訂閱方面是否學到了一些東西，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會看到您將訂閱選項擴展到其他連接的健身硬體產品中？我正在考慮重新推出 Tread 的要素，並試圖帶著新的訊息重返市場。那將是第一。然後我只是想確保我們理解應用程式策略上的消息以及您所看到的內容。在應用行銷資金和投資報酬率方面，您如何描述您在應用程式層的免費層與付費層以及所有轉換漏斗的元素方面所取得的成功，這些成功因素仍在隨著應用程式策略的發展而變化。

Let me jump in on FaaS. I'll say a few words about app strategy and then ask Leslie to join. I think it's unlikely that we will extend FaaS, at least the treads and treadmills because that installation is more complex than bike. Is it possible that we might extend it to row possibly, but it's still quite early in the life cycle of that product. And I think we have more to learn before we would consider doing that.

讓我來談談 FaaS。我將簡單介紹應用程式策略，然後邀請 Leslie 加入。我認為我們不太可能擴展 FaaS，至少是踏板和跑步機，因為安裝比自行車更複雜。我們是否有可能將其擴展到行，但它仍處於該產品生命週期的早期階段。我認為在考慮這樣做之前我們還有更多需要學習的地方。

So I think the -- and then lastly, I would say their -- we have our hands full with the growth opportunity that FaaS currently presents at 90-plus percent year-over-year. And having just opened up Germany where it -- right out of the box, very small numbers, but right out of the box growing really fast, -- much faster than we were forecasting. So there is plenty for us to chew on, on FaaS with just the current business model. I think is the macro point. As it relates to the app strategy, the marketing team was enormously successful in driving huge volumes into free.

所以我認為——最後，我想說的是——我們已經充分利用了 FaaS 目前呈現的同比增長 90% 以上的成長機會。德國剛剛開放，其數量非常少，但成長速度非常快，比我們的預測快得多。因此，僅憑當前的商業模式，FaaS 就有很多值得我們思考的地方。我認為是宏觀點。由於與應用程式策略相關，行銷團隊在推動大量免費應用程式方面取得了巨大成功。

We were not successful at seeing conversion of those free into the paid funnel, which is why we pivoted in the quarter back to focusing on the paid app and the on-ramp there is free trial. And there, we have had terrific success. And we're seeing higher price points than we were forecasting significantly higher take rates of the Apps+ so at $24 then we were -- and we were expecting a heavier mix of $12.99.

我們未能成功地將免費應用程式轉化為付費管道，這就是為什麼我們在本季重新專注於付費應用程式和免費試用的入口。在那裡，我們取得了巨大的成功。我們看到的價格點比我們預測的 Apps+ 的使用率要高得多，所以當時的價格是 24 美元——我們預計價格會更高，為 12.99 美元。

Yes. And I'll just jump in a little bit to provide context on the strategy and some of the interesting data points that we saw. So again, the goal including this app is to energize our core member base and to attract new and underpenetrated demographics that have historically not been, as I said, as penetrated for Peloton. And app gave us an amazing opportunity in the pre-app message gave us an amazing opportunity when we rebranded the company and relaunch the brand. What we saw to Barry's point was, obviously, a massive volume of downloads.

是的。我將簡單介紹一下該策略的背景以及我們看到的一些有趣的數據點。再說一次，包括這個應用程式的目標是激發我們的核心會員基礎，並吸引新的和滲透不足的人口統計數據，正如我所說，Peloton 歷史上從未滲透過這些人口統計數據。應用程式給了我們一個絕佳的機會，當我們重新命名公司並重新推出品牌時，應用程式前的消息給了我們一個絕佳的機會。我們看到巴里的觀點顯然是大量的下載。

And what's interesting about that tied to the objective is we brought in new demographics. So we brought in lots of people who represented what we would consider our core member base but you saw a movement and significant uptick both in free and paid for demos, including men, Gen Z plus and others. So these are the areas, and again, going back to our partnerships, where you will see us continuing to invest and to drive relevance and engagement, both on our current members that represent those demographics, but also new for growth.

與目標相關的有趣之處在於我們引入了新的人口統計。因此，我們引進了許多代表我們核心會員基礎的人，但你看到了免費和付費演示的變化和顯著上升，其中包括男性、Z 世代以上和其他人。因此，再次回到我們的合作夥伴關係，您將看到我們在這些領域繼續投資並推動相關性和參與度，不僅針對代表這些人口統計數據的現有成員，而且還針對新的成長成員。

Our next question comes from Lauren Schenk with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的勞倫·申克。

This is Nathan Feather on for Lauren. I guess, can you give us an update on how rental churn has progressed? And are you seeing that decline as we anticipated a few months ago? And then how should we think about the range of outcomes you're now considering for the kind of steady state of churn there?

我是勞倫 (Lauren) 的內森費瑟 (Nathan Feather)。我想，您能為我們介紹一下租賃流失情況的最新情況嗎？您是否看到了我們幾個月前預期的下降趨勢？那麼我們應該如何考慮您現在正在考慮的穩定流失狀態的結果範圍呢？

The question.

問題。

I can answer the first part of your question, Nathan, but we missed kind of the last part of your question about a little bit garbled, if you wouldn't mind repeating that.

內森，我可以回答你問題的第一部分，但我們錯過了你問題的最後部分，有點亂碼，如果你不介意重複一遍的話。

Yes. Just how should we think about the new range of outcomes to the steady state of churn rate kind of over the long term?

是的。從長遠來看，我們應該如何考慮客戶流失率穩定狀態的新結果範圍？

I can take this one. So in terms of churn for our rental subscription model for FaaS, we actually in Q4, we talked about the fact that we had an uptick in churn with regard to the seatpost we call and we saw that with FaaS as well. But we have seen it come down substantially from the high in Q4, roughly by 100 basis points. But it is still higher than our all access regular number of churn.

這個我可以拿走因此，就 FaaS 租賃訂閱模式的流失率而言，我們實際上在第四季度就談到了我們所調用的座桿的流失率上升的事實，我們在 FaaS 中也看到了這一點。但我們看到它較第四季的高點大幅下降，大約下降了 100 個基點。但它仍然高於我們所有訪問的常規流失人數。

Now your other question, I think, was about just churn in general. And what we did see, if you remember, we did see an uptick in churn with regard to the bike's seat posts with the increase in (inaudible) numbers. We are seeing -- we saw our churn come down as people are unpausing and then also with regard to seasonality, and we expect to see our churn rates come down in Q2 and Q3 as well.

我認為，現在你的另一個問題是關於整體的流失。如果你還記得的話，我們確實看到了隨著（聽不清楚）數量的增加，自行車座桿的流失率上升。我們看到，隨著人們不再暫停，我們的客戶流失率也有所下降，隨著季節性的變化，我們預計第二季和第三季的客戶流失率也會下降。

Spend a minute and talk about the changing mix of the subbase rejoins and the core all access members and growth in rental so that as the mix changes over time, people can.

花一點時間討論子基地重新加入和核心所有訪問成員的不斷變化的組合以及租金的增長，以便隨著時間的推移，人們可以隨著組合的變化而變化。

So overall, we do see slightly different -- we see different churn rates for these different types of Peloton subscribers. So we've got our regular all access members who purchased new hardware from us. And we've got the bike rental model for our rental subscribers. And then we have a third group, which is secondary market, which is people who decide to buy their hardware from someone else on a marketplace that we are not facilitating that sale. And it's generally -- it's used to hardware. So for our regular all access member base, we see the lowest churn rate in the low -- it obviously varies a bit seasonally, but it's the lowest, closer to 1 point, I don't have the exact number in front of me for that group.

總的來說，我們確實看到了略有不同——我們看到這些不同類型的 Peloton 訂閱者的流失率不同。因此，我們有從我們這裡購買新硬體的常規所有訪問會員。我們為租賃訂戶提供了自行車租賃模式。然後我們有第三組，即二級市場，這些人決定在我們不促進銷售的市場上從其他人那裡購買硬體。一般來說，它用於硬體。因此，對於我們的常規全訪問會員群來說，我們看到最低的流失率——它顯然會隨季節變化，但它是最低的，接近 1 點，我面前沒有確切的數字那個團體。

(inaudible).

（聽不清楚）。

This last quarter, yes, probably [1.4, 1.5-ish], a little less. Then we have the secondary market group, which actually has a higher churn rate, they are more in the [2, 2.5-ish] range. And then we have the bike rental group, which is more in the [5 to 6-ish] range over the seasonality of that group.

最後一個季度，是的，可能是[1.4，1.5左右]，稍微少一些。然後我們有二級市場組，它們實際上具有更高的流失率，它們更多地處於 [2, 2.5-ish] 範圍內。然後我們有自行車租賃組，該組的季節性範圍更多地在 [5 到 6 左右] 範圍內。

Just a minute talking about secondary market. That has grown pretty dramatically. And what's the source? It's Peloton all access member who canceled so they showed up in our churn numbers on average within 6 months, a bike is sold, let's use a bike is sold in the secondary market. Someone purchases that bike and they come to us and become an all-access member.

簡單談談二級市場。這個數字成長得相當驚人。來源是什麼？是 Peloton 所有訪問會員取消了，所以他們在 6 個月內平均出現在我們的流失數字中，自行車被賣掉了，讓我們使用在二級市場上出售的自行車。有人買了那輛自行車，然後他們來到我們這裡並成為全通行會員。

And so -- as our core business continues to grow, the secondary market is growing even faster. It means that, let's call it, 1.4% churn rate on all access members actually really on a net basis is lower. And it means that (inaudible), it also means that our average churn rate, the reported average churn rate is going to go up if the secondary market continues to grow faster than the new sales market, even if the individual cohorts are behaving the way they have historically even if the long-term churn for all access members remains steady. And even if the all access -- even if the churn rate for secondary members remains steady. And so you want not to be alarmed if you see it increase gradually because of the mix change. If the cohorts deteriorate, we'll let you know.

因此，隨著我們的核心業務不斷成長，二級市場的成長速度更快。這意味著，我們可以這樣稱呼它，所有訪問成員的 1.4% 流失率實際上在淨值基礎上較低。這意味著（聽不清楚），這也意味著，如果二級市場繼續比新銷售市場成長得更快，我們的平均流失率，報告的平均流失率將會上升，即使個別群體的行為方式如此即使所有准入成員的長期流失保持穩定，他們從歷史上看也是如此。即使所有存取權限 - 即使次要成員的流失率保持穩定。因此，如果您看到它因混合變化而逐漸增加，您不必驚慌。如果隊列惡化，我們會通知您。

Our next question comes from Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自 JMP 證券公司的安德魯·布恩 (Andrew Boone)。

I wanted to ask if there were any callouts on OpEx this quarter. And then as we think about the EBITDA guidance for the rest of the year, it implies a decline in OpEx in the back half. Can you just walk through any OpEx puts and takes that you may have -- and then can we touch on Peloton business. What needs to happen for Peloton business to really move the needle in terms of overall numbers?

我想問一下本季營運支出是否有任何標註。然後，當我們考慮今年剩餘時間的 EBITDA 指引時，它意味著下半年營運支出將會下降。您能否簡單介紹一下您可能擁有的任何 OpEx 認購和認購——然後我們可以談談 Peloton 業務嗎？ Peloton 業務需要做什麼才能真正推動整體數位的發展？

The business piece, do you want to do the first 2?

業務部分，你想做前兩個嗎？

So just some comments about OpEx. So we don't provide specific targets for OpEx, but we do expect our OpEx for the year to be below that of fiscal '23, despite the fact that we are investing more year-over-year in marketing so we expect our FY '24 GAAP G&A spending to be roughly $150 million lower than fiscal '23. The largest sources of savings are around legal, member support outside services. And then for R&D, remember the fact we have changed our capitalization policy with regard to R&D. So we are expensing a much larger portion versus in prior years, we capitalized more. If you combine both of those pieces, we expect to be about 10% to 12% on lower year-over-year spend in fiscal '24.

這裡只是一些關於營運支出的評論。因此，我們沒有提供具體的營運支出目標，但我們確實預計今年的營運支出將低於23 財年的水平，儘管我們在行銷方面的投資逐年增加，因此我們預計20 財年的營運支出將低於23 財年的水準。24 GAAP G&A 支出比 23 財年減少約 1.5 億美元。最大的節省來源是法律、會員支援外部服務。然後對於研發，請記住我們已經改變了研發方面的資本政策。因此，與前幾年相比，我們支出的部分要大得多，我們的資本也更多。如果將這兩部分結合起來，我們預計 24 財年的支出將年減約 10% 至 12%。

Now for sales and marketing, we do expect to be up year-over-year. That's driven by an increase spend on media, brand and creative. So actually, the marketing that drives subscriber acquisition, we will see that partially offset by lower retail costs as we continue to reduce our showroom footprint over the course of the year. Now you had called out on adjusted EBITDA that our guidance reflects lower OpEx. That's true with regard to marketing spend. What it also reflects, not to be missed is the fact that we do expect improvement in our gross margin as well.

現在，在銷售和行銷方面，我們確實預期會比去年同期成長。這是由媒體、品牌和創意支出增加所推動的。因此，實際上，隨著我們在這一年中繼續減少展廳佔地面積，我們將看到推動訂閱者獲取的行銷部分被較低的零售成本所抵消。現在，您對調整後的 EBITDA 表示不滿，並表示我們的指導反映了較低的營運支出。行銷支出也是如此。不容忽視的一點是，我們確實預期毛利率也會有所改善。

And with respect to Peloton business, this core belief that talent is foundational to the success of businesses. And we have seen an influx of senior seasoned talent who have management skills and relationships that are important to the future success in that business, and we have begun to see significant new traction in Peloton business and we will be seeing, I think, significant traction this fiscal year in corporate wellness as well, and you should expect to be hearing more about both from us as the year unfolds.

對 Peloton 業務來說，人才是企業成功的基礎這項核心信念。我們已經看到大量經驗豐富的高階人才湧入，他們擁有的管理技能和關係對於該業務的未來成功非常重要，而且我們已經開始看到Peloton 業務的重大新吸引力，我認為我們將看到顯著的吸引力本財年的企業健康也是如此，隨著這一年的展開，您應該會從我們那裡聽到更多關於這兩個方面的信息。

Our next question comes from Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自愛德華·尤魯馬和派珀·桑德勒。

Two quick ones for me. First, Barry, to go back to the sub commentary. So just so that we're crystal clear, is it your assessment today that the difficulty in conversion or the softness conversion is driven more by the marketing and some of the changes you've hopefully implemented. Or do you think that there are broader kind of price value issues with the paid tier. And then just -- it's been a little while since you guys have updated (inaudible). So I'd like to hear kind of how that device is selling and maybe any learnings from that.

對我來說兩個快點。首先，巴里，回到副評論。因此，為了讓我們非常清楚，您今天的評估是，轉換的難度或軟度轉換更多是由行銷和您希望實施的一些變革驅動的。或者您是否認為付費等級存在更廣泛的價格價值問題。然後——你們更新已經有一段時間了（聽不清楚）。所以我想聽聽該設備的銷售情況以及從中學到的任何經驗教訓。

Do you want to do the commentary on conversion for apps, I don't think it's a price value conundrum but...

您想對應用程式的轉換進行評論嗎？我不認為這是一個價格價值難題，但是...

Yes. I think that become half of the product team but we have done amazing work continuing to evolve both of the experiences. The 3 app experiences is obviously with a relaunch new for us as a company. We had it prior, but it was more of a steady state. And we've learned a time. We've seen what they're drawn to, what they're not, what these new members are not drawn to, what they're using, what they're not using. And to the point before, we are now strategically shifting to paid and pay trial, so people can really get a taste of everything that Peloton has to offer versus sort of a smaller segment of our content as an example.

是的。我認為這成為了產品團隊的一半，但我們做了令人驚嘆的工作，繼續發展這兩種體驗。這 3 個應用程式體驗顯然對我們公司來說是一次全新的重新推出。我們之前就有過，但它更像是一個穩定的狀態。我們已經學到了一段時間。我們已經看到了他們被什麼所吸引，他們不被什麼吸引，這些新成員不被什麼吸引，他們正在使用什麼，他們沒有使用什麼。到目前為止，我們現在正在策略性地轉向付費和付費試用，這樣人們就可以真正體驗到 Peloton 提供的所有內容，而不是以我們內容的一小部分為例。

So you're going to see us moving in parallel path. We're going to continue with the team, the product teams iterating on the 3 products as we continue to learn and drive traction on our paid as well.

所以你會看到我們平行前進。我們將繼續與團隊、產品團隊一起迭代這 3 個產品，同時我們也將繼續學習並推動付費產品的發展。

The perspective that I would contribute is a couple of things. One, I think we've had great success with driving growth in the paid app and at a higher price point than we were expecting. So I think for me, I'm persuaded that the price value proposition is working for consumers. What we weren't successful in doing is finding the right front door for free users and introducing them into the Peloton value proposition. Remember, our app was born as an adjunct to an all access membership for people who already understood what the value proposition was and how to engage with the service. .

我要貢獻的觀點有幾件事。第一，我認為我們在推動付費應用程式的成長方面取得了巨大成功，而且價格比我們預期的要高。所以我認為對我來說，我相信價格價值主張對消費者有利。我們沒有成功地做的是為免費用戶找到正確的前門並將他們引入 Peloton 價值主張。請記住，我們的應用程式是作為所有存取會員資格的附屬品而誕生的，適用於已經了解價值主張是什麼以及如何參與該服務的人。 。

And we shifted the focus for the free app of people who have no idea who were, arriving on our front door for the first time based on the marketing message and which brings us to [Nick Cobler]. So if you were to ask me, hey, like where do you think the real value add is in the foreseeable future, I would say it's everything e-commerce and everything app because that's the software challenge, that's a discovery challenge, that's a personalization challenge and that's just our ally. So I think there is more opportunity than risk for us. But I believe strongly that the price value proposition is being successful with app.

我們將注意力轉移到了免費應用程式上，這些人不知道是誰，根據行銷訊息第一次來到我們的前門，這讓我們想到了[尼克·科布勒]。因此，如果你問我，嘿，你認為在可預見的未來真正的增值在哪裡，我會說一切都是電子商務和一切應用程序，因為這是軟體挑戰，這是發現挑戰，這是個性化挑戰挑戰，而那隻是我們的盟友。所以我認為對我們來說機會多於風險。但我堅信應用程式的價格價值主張是成功的。

And then on rower really quickly?

然後很快就可以划船了？

I can take the question on rower. So rower actually is still a relatively small portion of our hardware sales today. But we were pleased to introduce it to the Canadian market last week, I mean, on 10/24. And we also achieved commercial certification of our rower in the U.S. on October 5. So we're excited to be able to bring that to the commercial market. And then in terms of our content for rower, we've recently started a beta test of some gaming content with Orgata, which is exciting for us to be able to test for that platform.

我可以回答關於賽艇運動員的問題。因此，划船器實際上仍然只占我們今天硬體銷售的相對較小的一部分。但我們很高興上週（10 月 24 日）將其引入加拿大市場。我們還在 10 月 5 日在美國獲得了賽艇運動員的商業認證。因此，我們很高興能夠將其推向商業市場。然後就划船者的內容而言，我們最近開始使用 Orgata 對一些遊戲內容進行 Beta 測試，這讓我們很高興能夠在該平台上進行測試。

Our next question comes from John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 John Blackledge 和 TD Cowen。

Two questions on Tread+, what's the opportunity with the Tread+ relaunch? And is the cost of the Tread+ kind of a limiting factor, given the current macro conditions. And then secondly on the University program, you provided that example for the University of Michigan in the shareholder letter. Just wondering kind of how long does it take for all the facets of the program to get going, selling the hardware in the campus community, getting the rental program going, et cetera? And are there kind of hiring needs at Peloton to address this opportunity?

關於Tread+的兩個問題，Tread+重新推出的機會是什麼？考慮到目前的宏觀條件，Tread+ 的成本是一個限制因素。其次，關於大學項目，您在股東信中提供了密西根大學的例子。只是想知道該計劃的所有方面需要多長時間才能啟動，在校園社區銷售硬件，啟動租賃計劃等等？ Peloton 是否有招募需求來把握這個機會？

Let me talk about Tread+. It could be that in the current economic environment, it will fall flat. But I don't think that's going to be the case of all of the products that I've ever been exposed to at Peloton, the one single product that you couldn't pry out of the dead hands of members is the Tread+. I mean they are absolutely over-the-top, fanatically obsessed about the user experience on the Tread+. I mean, dramatically, exponentially, more emotionally engaged with that product than anything we've ever produced. And frankly, it's kind of that reaction that informs my belief that we're more likely than not to be successful in the reintroduction of that product.

先說Tread+。在當前的經濟環境下，它可能會持平。但我不認為我在 Peloton 接觸過的所有產品都會出現這種情況，唯一一個你無法從會員手中撬開的產品就是 Tread+。我的意思是，他們絕對是過分的，狂熱地痴迷於 Tread+ 上的用戶體驗。我的意思是，與我們生產的任何產品相比，人們對這款產品的投入程度顯著、呈指數級增長。坦白說，正是這種反應讓我相信我們更有可能在重新推出產品方面取得成功。

Yes. And then I'll jump in on Michigan. So thank you for the question and for mentioning sort of the full ecosystem of what we're trying to do with this partnership, it ranges from the student app, which is very obviously relevant to that core base, but also rental on campus the bike itself. And then we have marketing and brand integration, leveraging, including leveraging student athletes. So there's a lot to not do this partnership, but all of the partnership that we're going to be bringing to life, you will start to see in the next couple of weeks, the beginning of the Michigan partnership come to life, and then we will have drumbeat throughout next year at sort of key more relevant moment both for students, but also Alum and FaaS, both on-campus and off-campus as well.

是的。然後我會談談密西根州。因此，感謝您提出問題並提及我們正在嘗試透過這種合作夥伴關係做的完整生態系統，它的範圍包括學生應用程序，這顯然與該核心基礎相關，而且還包括校園自行車租賃本身。然後我們進行行銷和品牌整合、利用，包括利用學生運動員。因此，有很多事情不能建立這種夥伴關係，但是我們將要實現的所有夥伴關係，您將在接下來的幾週內開始看到，密西根夥伴關係的開始變得栩栩如生，然後明年我們將在一些更相關的關鍵時刻進行鼓譟，無論是對學生，或是校友和FaaS，無論是校內或校外。

I think the most interesting thing about -- I'm going to ask and answer my own question here. Please bear with me for a minute. As Leslie and I have talked about the sort of the world's reaction to the announcement of Liverpool and Michigan. At one point in the conversation, she turned to me and said, you know -- and particularly after the announcement of the NBA, WNBA. There wasn't a brand in the world that we wanted to partner with wouldn't kill to partner with Peloton now and people have been beating down our door to talk about different ways to work with us.

我認為最有趣的事情是——我將在這裡提出並回答我自己的問題。請耐心聽我講一分鐘。正如萊斯利和我談到了世界對利物浦和密西根的宣布的反應。在談話的某個時刻，她轉向我說，你知道——尤其是在 NBA、WNBA 宣布之後。現在，世界上沒有一個我們想要合作的品牌不會拒絕與 Peloton 合作，人們已經敲開我們的大門，討論與我們合作的不同方式。

So I was trying to convey in the letter, some of that enthusiasm and energy, I'm not sure I've succeeded but there is enormous opportunity for us here. The costs, at least so far have been, I would say, modest to quite reasonable. And it opens up a number of potential growth factors for us both to increase in unaided awareness to the opportunities that associated with these great brands and at least in the case of the NBA gives us access to stream content, which helps members discover other stream content on the platform to a degree that we haven't been able to do for ourselves today, thinking about the entertainment section of our content. Anything you want to add to that?

所以我試著在信中傳達一些熱情和活力，我不確定我是否成功了，但我們這裡有巨大的機會。我想說，至少到目前為止，成本是適度的，甚至是相當合理的。它為我們打開了許多潛在的成長因素，以提高對與這些偉大品牌相關的機會的獨立認識，至少在 NBA 的情況下，我們可以訪問串流媒體內容，這有助於會員發現其他串流內容在平台上達到我們今天無法為自己做到的程度，考慮我們內容的娛樂部分。您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I was going to just say on the entertainment piece, there is a ton of pent-up interest in this area. We've been in beta for quite a while. We have not marketed it even to our members. And so there's a lot of organic trends that we're seeing, especially around trends -- excuse me, around Tread where people just want to consume different types of content as they work out. So it really expands our offering in a really powerful way. And again, goes back to different demographics that we're trying to reach. So certainly, through NBA league pass, we're really excited to bring entertainment and that partnership specifically to life in the next couple of weeks.

不，我只是想說，關於娛樂片，人們對這個領域有很多被壓抑的興趣。我們已經處於測試階段相當長一段時間了。我們甚至還沒有向我們的會員推銷它。因此，我們看到了很多有機趨勢，特別是圍繞趨勢——對不起，圍繞著 Tread，人們只想在鍛鍊時消費不同類型的內容。因此，它確實以一種非常強大的方式擴展了我們的產品範圍。再次回到我們試圖涵蓋的不同人群。當然，透過 NBA League Pass，我們非常高興能在接下來的幾週內將娛樂和這種夥伴關係帶入生活。

Our next question comes from Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Simeon Siegel。

Just any color you can share on engagement across the various degree of users? I assume you have some strong power users, maybe periodic users, probably some who don't use that often. So just any help thinking through how you look at your own, how you segment your own engagement for the sub base? And then maybe just what percent of current subscribers currently have multiple pieces of connected equipment? And do you see that as a further opportunity.

您可以分享不同程度的用戶參與度的任何顏色嗎？我假設您有一些強大的高級用戶，也許是定期用戶，也可能是一些不經常使用的用戶。那麼，是否有任何幫助思考一下您如何看待自己，如何劃分自己對子基地的參與？那麼目前擁有多台連接設備的當前用戶的百分比可能是多少？您是否認為這是一個進一步的機會？

I -- let's see. As many different ways as you can imagine, we segment the user base in terms of engagement both for subscriptions and both for members per subscription. We don't provide any color for it, mostly because (inaudible) into the business and each question we answer would result in a new question and would end up being like the book give them out of cookie. So one -- thing one. Thing two, I think we're in the very early innings of having a deep understanding of how it is that personalization and the use of AI with personalization can drive the increased user satisfaction and engagement across the membership and across different geographies.

我——讓我們看看。我們可以透過多種不同的方式對用戶群進行細分，包括訂閱的參與度和每個訂閱的會員的參與度。我們不為其提供任何顏色，主要是因為（聽不清楚）進入業務，我們回答的每個問題都會產生一個新問題，最終會像書上給他們的餅乾一樣。所以一——第一件事。第二件事，我認為我們正處於深入了解個人化以及人工智慧與個人化的使用如何能夠提高會員和不同地區的用戶滿意度和參與度的早期階段。

And we really have only just begun and I haven't deep understanding of the power of that from my experience, both at Spotify and Netflix. And there's a lot of open field running, I think, that we have the opportunity to do here. Two, I think there are -- as Leslie's team is successful in drawing in new demographics to the platform, LatinX by way of sample.

我們確實才剛開始，根據我在 Spotify 和 Netflix 的經驗，我還沒有深入了解這一點的力量。我認為，我們有機會在這裡進行很多露天跑步活動。我認為有兩個——萊斯利的團隊成功地將新的人口統計數據吸引到該平台，以拉丁語為例。

There -- it's important that we'd be aligned internally, let's say, by way of example, with respect to our content programming, so that the content we're making can be discovered by and is relevant to the demos that we're driving to the platform, maybe for the first time, right? It wouldn't make any sense or Leslie to suddenly be driving a large proportion of LatinX against the platform if we're not successful in servicing our LatinX relevant programming on the platform, and we have a lot of it. I think they're -- point one.

在那裡，重要的是我們要在內部保持一致，例如，在我們的內容編程方面，這樣我們正在製作的內容可以被我們正在製作的演示發現並與之相關。也許是第一次開車到站台，對吧？如果我們沒有成功地在平台上提供與拉丁語相關的程式設計服務，那麼萊斯利突然在平台上推動大量拉丁語是沒有任何意義的，而且我們有很多這樣的程式設計。我認為他們是——第一點。

Point two, I think there are opportunities for us to lean in to some user segments that maybe recently, we've underserved -- we've seen a big growth in our PML population. We have great programming services to them. I think there's an opportunity for us to lean a little heavy, a little heavily -- more heavily performance, which we have done historically but a little less of lately. So it's mostly about overly simplistic say, polishing the apple, but it's mostly about ensuring that we're aligned. And that as we flex the business model, we make the resource allocation decisions we need to make to capitalize on the opportunities we've seen.

第二點，我認為我們有機會向某些用戶群體傾斜，這些用戶群體可能最近我們服務不足——我們已經看到 PML 群體的大幅增長。我們為他們提供出色的程式服務。我認為我們有機會更加註重性能，我們過去曾這樣做過，但最近有所減少。所以，這主要是關於過於簡單的說法，拋光蘋果，但主要是為了確保我們保持一致。當我們靈活調整業務模式時，我們會做出所需的資源分配決策，以利用我們所看到的機會。

On the question about multiple pieces of hardware. We it's actually a relatively small percentage of our sub base that has more than one piece of Peloton hardware less than 10%, although that is increasing. And as we said before, the vast majority of our bikes go to new subscribers. We see higher overlap with trends, larger percentage of them going to existing relative to bike. And then also with the rower, we see a higher percentage of them going to existing members who have another piece of hardware as well.

關於多個硬體的問題。實際上，我們的子基地中擁有多件 Peloton 硬體的比例相對較小，不到 10%，儘管這一比例正在增加。正如我們之前所說，我們的絕大多數自行車都賣給了新訂戶。我們看到與趨勢的重疊程度更高，相對於自行車而言，現有趨勢的比例更大。然後對於賽艇運動員，我們看到其中有更高比例的人流向也擁有另一件硬體的現有會員。

One point I'll just add on the question earlier is around NPS, which continues to remain strong across all of our demos. It's something that we track, obviously, very carefully, especially given the power of word of mouth and referrals for the business.

我之前要補充的一點是關於 NPS，它在我們所有的演示中仍然保持強勁。顯然，我們非常仔細地追蹤這一點，特別是考慮到口碑和業務推薦的力量。

The only comment I make about multiple platforms is the more platforms you have in your home, the lower your churn tends to be.

我對多個平台的唯一評論是，你家中擁有的平台越多，你的流失率就越低。

And our last question comes from Youssef Squali with Truist.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Youssef Squali 和 Truist。

All right. Great. 2-parter please. Barry. So in the letter, you talked about 75,000 subs for the fast service by the end of the year. We're having somewhat of a hard problem contextualizing that out of the universe of about 3 million. How is the rental business doing relative to your own expectations? It seems to me that given such a great value proposition, maybe 75,000 is a little number, but I'm not really sure. So I'd love to know how that service is performing to your own expectations. And maybe relative to that, are the unit economics of that service clear enough for you after maybe -- I don't know, to be now for maybe 18 months now that you can maybe leave me a lot more aggressively? Or are the unit economics still kind of coming in to kind of getting clearer, but they're not giving you enough confidence to win very aggressively.

好的。偉大的。請兩人一組。巴里.所以在信中，您提到到今年年底將有 75,000 名訂閱者享受快速服務。我們遇到了一個難題，要從大約 300 萬個宇宙中將其具體化。與您自己的預期相比，租賃業務的表現如何？在我看來，鑑於如此巨大的價值主張，也許 75,000 是一個小數字，但我不太確定。所以我很想知道該服務的表現如何，符合您的期望。也許相對於此，該服務的單位經濟效益對您來說是否足夠清楚——我不知道，現在可能已經 18 個月了，您也許可以更積極地離開我？或者單位經濟效益是否仍然變得更加清晰，但它們並沒有給你足夠的信心來非常積極地獲勝。

Youssef, thanks for the question. So I have been cautious in our management of the growth of FaaS and have on and off even in the last quarter taking steps to dampen down some of the growth because I certainly early on was less certain about the future economics of it as we were still learning with the churn characteristics were going to be and having a deeper understanding of what the payback period would look like. I mean, of course, we had early data, but I wasn't confident that the early data would be representative of the market as we sold more units. What is abundantly clear to me is that we have the opportunity to grow it significantly faster than we have, and it's been growing pretty fast.

優素福，謝謝你的提問。因此，我對 FaaS 成長的管理一直持謹慎態度，甚至在上個季度也斷斷續續地採取措施抑制部分成長，因為我很早就對 FaaS 的未來經濟狀況不太確定，因為我們仍然了解客戶流失的特徵，並對投資回收期有更深入的了解。我的意思是，當然，我們有早期數據，但我不相信早期數據能夠代表市場，因為我們銷售了更多單位。我非常清楚的是，我們有機會以比現在快得多的速度發展它，而且它的成長速度相當快。

So if I were to step out of the way, so to speak, it would already be a bigger business than I have allowed it to become. So and we've taken some steps to accelerate the growth we -- not to give too much color. But we took up the forecast by 20 percentage points of growth just by agreeing to change some of the tactics internally. And honestly, we could grow faster. So now in terms of the unit economics, we have a fair amount of control over how we dial the outcome, a couple of factors that can -- that inform us about how to do that, it's one, the mix of certified preowned and new. And then secondly, the mix of Bike and Bike+. And so as we turn those trials, we have a significant opportunity to dial up and down the payback profile and the unit economics. Anything you want to contribute to that?

因此，如果我退出，可以這麼說，這將是一個比我允許的更大的業務。因此，我們已經採取了一些措施來加速成長，但我們並沒有給予太多的色彩。但我們只是同意在內部改變一些策略，就將成長預測提高了 20 個百分點。老實說，我們可以成長得更快。因此，現在就單位經濟學而言，我們對如何調整結果有相當大的控制權，有幾個因素可以告訴我們如何做到這一點，其中之一就是經過認證的二手車和新車的混合。其次，Bike 和 Bike+ 的混合。因此，當我們進行這些試驗時，我們有一個重要的機會來調整投資回收期和單位經濟效益。你想為此做出什麼貢獻嗎？

Sure. I'd like to contribute. I want to say a couple of things. So our payback period for FaaS, which we've talked about before, being in the roughly 18 to 20-month ranges. We are there today. We're in the 18-month range. Until we see opportunity to improve that by reducing churn rates. And we're looking at ways that we can do that. I want to call out that one program, that one option that we have for people who rent, we find that -- first of all, we find that it's over 60% incremental. That's important to comment. So that means that 60% of the people at least or more would not have joined Peloton if they didn't have this option to rent the Bike without a commitment. And that's true both in the U.S. It's true, we're seeing in Canada. We're seeing it in Germany. That is true for -- it's highly incremental in all of the markets, the fastest participating in today.

當然。我願意做出貢獻。我想說幾件事。因此，我們之前討論過的 FaaS 投資回收期約為 18 至 20 個月。我們今天就在那裡。我們處於 18 個月的範圍內。直到我們看到透過降低客戶流失率來改善這一點的機會。我們正在尋找能夠做到這一點的方法。我想指出我們為租屋者提供的一個計劃、一個選擇，我們發現——首先，我們發現它的增量超過 60%。發表評論很重要。因此，這意味著如果沒有在沒有承諾的情況下租賃自行車的選項，至少有 60% 或更多的人不會加入 Peloton。在美國都是如此。我們在加拿大也看到了這一點。我們在德國看到了這一點。確實如此——它在所有市場中都是高度增量的，是當今參與速度最快的市場。

Sorry -- and that's an example where I continue to put my foot on the cap to break from time to time, while we continue to test the validity of the incrementality.

抱歉——這是一個例子，在我們繼續測試增量的有效性的同時，我仍然不時地踩住上限。

Yes. And another thing that we have not really leaned in on, but we are going to start to do, which would help the economics of the FaaS program is improving our buyout rate. So today, if you want -- we offer you an opportunity to purchase if you're ready to commit to buy out your Peloton Bike rental but the only way that you can do it is it's a very cumbersome manual process where you have to call our member support to figure out how to do it. And we're about to launch shortly a self-service process to be able to do that. And we're excited about learning how that performs over the holidays, especially because we'll have opportunities for incentives on buyouts over the course of holidays.

是的。另一件我們還沒有真正依賴但我們將開始做的事情是提高我們的買斷率，這將有助於 FaaS 計劃的經濟性。因此，今天，如果您願意，如果您準備好承諾購買 Peloton 自行車租賃服務，我們將為您提供購買機會，但唯一的方法是，這是一個非常繁瑣的手動流程，您必須致電我們的會員支援弄清楚如何做。我們即將推出一個自助服務流程來做到這一點。我們很高興了解假期期間的表現，特別是因為我們將有機會在假期期間提供買斷激勵措施。

Of course, if you think about that, if people try the Bike, they don't want a commitment at first, but then at some point, they're ready to commit, that's great for us because we move them to being a regular all access member down to that different churn curve that we talked about earlier with the much lower churn rate. So there is some opportunity there. Again, that's a learning for us, buyout rate is pretty small today, but we haven't optimized it and we're going to be working on that.

當然，如果你想一想，如果人們嘗試自行車，他們一開始並不想做出承諾，但在某些時候，他們準備好做出承諾，這對我們來說很好，因為我們讓他們成為常規自行車所有訪問成員都下降到我們之前討論過的不同的流失曲線，流失率要低得多。所以那裡有一些機會。再說一次，這對我們來說是一個教訓，今天的買斷率相當小，但我們還沒有對其進行優化，我們將努力解決這個問題。

Now let's imagine a world where it's $500 million worth of rental revenue. So that requires -- that is a different working capital profile than the core business and requires a different capital structure, which is among the reasons that I keep tapping the break to make sure we know exactly what it is we're talking about. If we're going to go flat out to grow this business because I'm fairly confident that if we took all the breaks off -- it would really go. So before you let it loose in the wild, we better know what we're doing, if that makes sense.

現在讓我們想像一個租金收入價值 5 億美元的世界。因此，這需要與核心業務不同的營運資本狀況，並且需要不同的資本結構，這就是我不斷利用突破以確保我們確切地知道我們正在談論的內容的原因之一。如果我們要全力以赴地發展這項業務，因為我相當有信心，如果我們取消所有的中斷，它真的會發展。因此，在將其釋放到野外之前，我們最好知道我們在做什麼，如果這有意義的話。

Yes, that makes total sense. And you think within the next 12 months, we should get to that place where we have enough visibility to let the dogs out?

是的，這完全有道理。您認為在接下來的 12 個月內，我們應該到達有足夠能見度讓狗狗出去的地方嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thank you. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Peter Stabler for any closing remarks.

謝謝。我現在想將電話轉回給 Peter Stabler，讓其結束語。

Thanks, everyone, for your time today. We'll talk to you next quarter. Have a good day.

謝謝大家今天抽出時間。我們將在下個季度與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。