派樂騰 (PTON) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Peloton Interactive Q2 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After a few brief opening remarks, we will begin immediately going into our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Stabler, the floor is yours.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Peloton Interactive 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。此時，所有參與者都處於只聽模式。在簡短的開場白之後，我們將立即開始問答環節。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給您的發言人、投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler 先生。史塔布勒先生，請發言。

Thanks, Sherry. Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Conference Call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy, and CFO, Liz Coddington. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

謝謝，雪莉。早安，歡迎參加 Peloton 2024 財年第二季電話會議。執行長 Barry McCarthy 和財務長 Liz Coddington 參加了今天的電話會議。我們對您問題的評論和答覆僅反映管理層截至今天的觀點，並將包括與我們業務相關的聲明，這些聲明屬於聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。由於與我們業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的結果有重大差異。

For discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter. I'll now turn the call over to the operator for our first question.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們向 SEC 提交的文件和今天的股東信函，這兩份文件都可以在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論公認會計原則和非公認會計原則財務指標。今天的股東信中提供了 GAAP 與非 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。現在我將把電話轉給接線員來回答我們的第一個問題。

One moment for our first question. And that will come from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

請稍等一下我們的第一個問題。這將來自 Doug Anmuth 與摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 的血統。

Great. A couple of questions. You called out that the treadmill market is 2x that of bikes. Can you just help us understand how you're going to lean into those products more going forward? And if Tread+ plus demand is strong, why isn't that helping free cash flow more in the back half of this year, just given the considerable existing inventory that you have? And then secondly, can you just help us understand the current mix of sales or perhaps sub additions across Telethon direct and third-party and bike rental and any thoughts on how this could trend going forward?

偉大的。有幾個問題。您指出跑步機市場是自行車市場的 2 倍。您能否幫助我們了解您今後將如何進一步利用這些產品？如果 Tread+ plus 需求強勁，那麼考慮到您現有的庫存相當可觀，為什麼這不能在今年下半年更多地幫助自由現金流呢？其次，您能否幫助我們了解 Telethon 直接、第三方和自行車租賃的當前銷售組合或可能的子附加項，以及對未來趨勢的任何想法？

Let me take the first part of the question, maybe Liz can take the second part, Doug. Thanks for joining today. The demand for Tread has been stronger than we anticipated, both for Tread and for Tread+. I think that interest in Tread+ has makes the tread look even more attractive in comparison because of the price point differences. So that would be category 1. The other exciting thing about the Tread and the fact that we're seeing real growth year-over-year in units is that for as long as I've been associated with the business, we've been largely dependent on the bike business. And now it appears that we have at least an important second leg of the stool to help support growth. Now with respect to Tread+, we do have a substantial number of units in inventory. The good news is we've paid for them. So each sale is quite helpful to cash flow and initial demand was quite strong.

讓我回答問題的第一部分，也許麗茲可以回答第二部分，道格。感謝您今天加入。對 Tread 和 Tread+ 的需求都比我們預期的還要強。我認為，由於價格差異，人們對 Tread+ 的興趣使得胎面看起來更具吸引力。所以這就是類別 1。關於 Tread 的另一個令人興奮的事情以及我們看到單位數量逐年增長的事實是，只要我與這項業務有聯繫，我們就一直在很大程度上依賴於自行車業務。現在看來，我們至少有一個重要的第二條腿來幫助支持成長。現在，對於 Tread+，我們確實有大量庫存。好消息是我們已經付了錢。所以每次銷售對現金流都有很大幫助，而且最初的需求也相當強勁。

We -- but we have limited sales experience, and we have limited even more limited sales experience at full price. And so a little bit uncertain about what the demand will be coming into Q4. We're also a little bit uncertain about our ability to fulfill the demand. So our first obligation is to retrofit the existing units in the field with the Rear Guard. And to the extent that we are manufacturing more rear guards than we have capacity for installs and retrofits than they're available for us to retrofit existing inventory and ship to new purchasers. So that's the perspective on Tread+. There was a mixed part of the question, Liz, I was going to kick over to you.

我們——但我們的銷售經驗有限，而且我們的全價銷售經驗也很有限。因此，我們對第四季的需求有些不確定。我們對滿足需求的能力也有點不確定。因此，我們的首要任務是用後衛部隊改造戰地現有的部隊。在某種程度上，我們製造的後防護裝置超出了我們的安裝和改造能力，超過了我們可用於改造現有庫存並將其運送給新購買者的數量。這就是對 Tread+ 的看法。這個問題有一個複雜的部分，Liz，我打算把它交給你。

Yes, sure. In terms of the mix, I think the question was about what are we thinking in terms of our mix going forward into the back half of the year. As far as kind of the hardware sales piece of the business, from a bike rental perspective, we are leaning into that. So we do expect to continue to see our mix shift toward the bike rental or the FaaS rental. In terms of third party, for the back half of the year, our third-party business is impacted by a lot of key moments in those third-party channels. And so we'll lean into those and depending on how well those actually do that, that may result in some mix shift into third party at certain moments, but we don't expect it to be a significantly higher portion of our sales in the back half of the year versus the first half of the year.

是的，當然。就組合而言，我認為問題在於我們對今年下半年的組合有何想法。就硬體銷售業務而言，從自行車租賃的角度來看，我們正在傾向於這一領域。因此，我們確實預計我們的組合將繼續轉向自行車租賃或 FaaS 租賃。第三方方面，下半年我們的第三方業務受到第三方管道許多關鍵時刻的影響。因此，我們將傾向於這些，並根據它們實際做得如何，這可能會導致在某些時刻向第三方進行一些混合轉移，但我們預計它不會在我們的銷售額中佔據顯著更高的比例。下半年與上半年比較。

I wanted just to comment about Tread. I am pretty excited about some of the content that we're going to bring to the platform. It will be oriented towards more of the performance athletes particularly marathon training. We entered into a partnership with New York RoadRunners, I'm super excited about that, and we filmed in 3D, the Marathon course, the New York Marathon course this year and that will be available on our platform for runners who are training for the marathon. And we also captured the metadata and so the elevation on the treadmill will automatically change as you progress down the course. And we hope to expand that to other leading marathons in the world and continue to lean in to that segment of the marketplace, which I think helps to reposition the brand in important ways.

我只想評論一下 Tread。我對我們將要帶到該平台的一些內容感到非常興奮。它將面向更多的運動員，特別是馬拉松訓練。我們與 New York RoadRunners 建立了合作夥伴關係，我對此感到非常興奮，我們今年以 3D 形式拍攝了馬拉松課程、紐約馬拉松課程，並將在我們的平台上為正在訓練的跑步者提供馬拉松。我們還捕獲了元數據，因此跑步機上的海拔會隨著您在路線上的進展而自動變化。我們希望將其擴展到世界上其他領先的馬拉松賽事，並繼續向該市場領域傾斜，我認為這有助於在重要方面重新定位品牌。

One moment for our next question and that will come from the line of Ron Josey with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將由花旗集團的 Ron Josey 提出。

I wanted to ask on engagement, Barry. It was up 6% year-over-year. Just curious, can you tell us how engagement evolved on the platform over the last several years with Peloton offering more content across more devices. Of course, the app? Or are we seeing members adopting more of a hybrid style? Or is it one or the other is question one? And then Barry, you mentioned in the letter, you've disappointed the team can improve performance in the current quarter as you did in the second quarter. Just talk to us about some of the improvements you saw in 2Q that helped numbers come in better than expected.

我想詢問訂婚事宜，巴里。較去年同期成長 6%。只是好奇，您能否告訴我們過去幾年中，隨著 Peloton 在更多設備上提供更多內容，該平台的參與度是如何演變的？當然，應用程式？或者我們看到成員採用更多的混合風格？或是問題一是其中之一嗎？然後巴里，您在信中提到，您對團隊在本季能夠像第二季一樣提高績效感到失望。請與我們談談您在第二季度看到的一些改進，這些改進幫助數字比預期更好。

I was having trouble hearing during the second quarter improvement in 1. What helped us beat Q2. Is that the question?

在第二季的改進中，我很難聽到 1 的改進。是什麼幫助我們擊敗了第二季。這是問題嗎？

Yes. And I think you said you'd be disappointed if the team can't improve performance in the quarter similar to 2Q. So curious what happened in the last quarter to maybe do better here going forward?

是的。我想你說過，如果團隊無法在本季提高類似第二季的表現，你會感到失望。很好奇上個季度發生了什麼，也許未來會做得更好？

Yes. I'll do part of it and Liz will take part. Well, as you mentioned, engagement was up 6%. The Connected Fitness engagement was up 4% year-over-year, and the app was up 7% year-over-year. We have not really made significant progress yet in personalization. I should say it differently, we've made good progress, but we can run a lot faster and we can do significantly better. And I am tremendously excited about the work that we are doing now and the insights that (inaudible) brings to the table. And I think a year from now, we're going to be in a significantly better place and it will have a really positive impact on engagement. And we know that engagement is a big driver of churn. So churn was down in the quarter and engagement was up. And I think there are opportunities to continue to broaden engagement plus we're doing some really interesting things in the content team on different platforms that are contributing to the overall improvement in the user experience.

是的。我會做一部分，莉茲也會參與。嗯，正如您所提到的，參與度提高了 6%。 Connected Fitness 的參與度年增 4%，該應用程式的參與度年增 7%。我們在個人化方面還沒有真正取得重大進展。我應該換句話說，我們已經取得了良好的進展，但我們可以跑得更快，我們可以做得更好。我對我們現在正在做的工作以及（聽不清楚）帶來的見解感到非常興奮。我認為一年後，我們將處於一個明顯更好的位置，這將對參與產生真正積極的影響。我們知道，參與度是客戶流失的一大推動因素。因此，本季的客戶流失率有所下降，而參與度卻有所上升。我認為有機會繼續擴大參與度，而且我們的內容團隊正在不同平台上做一些非常有趣的事情，這些事情有助於用戶體驗的整體改善。

I'm thinking by way of example, in entertainment with YouTube video and the NBA league pass. Just by way of example, and we've seen a very substantial increase in engagement in that content amongst Tread users by way of example. So -- we've come a long way, but we're going to come a lot further faster in the foreseeable future. And certainly, AI will play an important role here.

我想舉個例子，在娛樂領域，YouTube 影片和 NBA 聯盟通行證。舉例來說，我們已經看到 Tread 用戶對該內容的參與度大幅增加。所以——我們已經走了很長一段路，但在可預見的未來，我們會走得更快。當然，人工智慧將在這裡發揮重要作用。

Yes. A few things to add about our outperformance in Q2. So some of the areas that really worked well for us were our bike rental at FaaS, the third party and our refurbished inventory sales or bike sales. Those all outperformed our internal expectations in the quarter, which is great. And our bike rental also benefited from the fact that we've had -- we had lower churn, so that helped with subscribers. And also, we launched self-service buyouts on our platform, which was a really great win because we saw 11% of our rental members buyout in the quarter, which also contributed to some of the outperformance.

是的。關於我們在第二季的出色表現，需要補充幾點。因此，對我們來說真正有效的一些領域是我們在 FaaS、第三方的自行車租賃以及我們的翻新庫存銷售或自行車銷售。這些都超出了我們本季的內部預期，這非常棒。我們的自行車租賃也受益於我們的客戶流失率較低，這有助於吸引訂戶。此外，我們在平台上推出了自助買斷，這是一場巨大的勝利，因為我們在本季度看到 11% 的租賃會員買斷，這也為我們的優異表現做出了貢獻。

There are other -- there are some other factors that are impacting our subscriber growth for the quarter. As we mentioned, our hardware demand was a bit lower overall than we forecasted, but we had some offsetting tailwinds that benefited us. First, our supply chain team did a great job and outperformed in terms of delivery efficiency. That means we had a bit of a pull forward in our deliveries into Q2 that we had expected to have in Q3.

還有其他一些因素正在影響我們本季的用戶成長。正如我們所提到的，我們的硬體需求總體上比我們的預測要低一些，但我們有一些抵消的有利因素使我們受益。首先，我們的供應鏈團隊做得很好，在交付效率方面表現出色。這意味著我們第二季的交付量比我們預期的第三季有所提前。

We also had faster subscription activations in the quarter than we expected. Sometimes over the holidays, people lag a bit with activating their subscriptions. And we saw that was faster than we expected too, so that helped with subscribers. And then another benefit that we had is we had lower new subscription pauses in the quarter and higher-than-expected reactivations from a pause state than we expected. So that helped overall retention and is one of the drivers of our better-than-expected Q2 churn results.

本季我們的訂閱啟用速度也比我們預期的要快。有時在假期期間，人們啟動訂閱的速度會有些延遲。我們發現這也比我們預期的要快，因此這對訂閱者有所幫助。我們獲得的另一個好處是，本季新訂閱暫停次數較少，暫停狀態下的重新啟用次數也高於預期。因此，這有助於整體保留，也是我們第二季客戶流失結果優於預期的驅動因素之一。

Another thing that is also really important to understand about our performance in the quarter is the secondary market. That continues to outperform our expectations and was a key contributor to subscriber growth in the quarter.

了解我們本季業績的另一件事也非常重要，那就是二級市場。這持續超出我們的預期，是本季用戶成長的關鍵因素。

One moment for our next question and that will come from the line of Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

我們的下一個問題將由 JMP 證券公司的安德魯·布恩 (Andrew Boone) 提出。

I wanted to ask about the increase in media spend that you guys called out in the letter. As we get further away from the relaunch of the digital app, how should we think about marketing, especially as you just mentioned, the pullback in overall demand for hardware. And then, Liz, is there anything you can call out in terms of Connected business gross margins going forward, that stepped up in the quarter. How do we think about that for the back half of the year and then going forward?

我想問一下你們在信中提到的媒體支出增加的情況。隨著我們距離數位應用程式的重新推出越來越遠，我們應該如何考慮行銷，特別是正如您剛才提到的，硬體整體需求的回落。然後，Liz，在本季互聯業務毛利率方面，您有什麼可以指出的嗎？我們如何看待下半年和未來的發展？

So to the first question, it sounds like it was about increase in media spend that we saw in Q2. So we always generally or typically see an increase in our media spending in Q2 because it is our holiday quarter and use that as a way to drive leads and demand for our hardware products and our app on all of our products. In the back half of the year, we do expect to spend less in media just seasonally. So we do expect lower quarterly media spending going forward.

因此，對於第一個問題，聽起來像是我們在第二季度看到的媒體支出的增加。因此，我們總是普遍或典型地看到第二季度的媒體支出增加，因為這是我們的假期季度，並以此作為推動我們的硬體產品和所有產品上的應用程式的銷售線索和需求的一種方式。在今年下半年，我們確實預期季節性的媒體支出會減少。因此，我們確實預期未來季度媒體支出將會下降。

Now remember, another thing to understand about our business, I would really come back to this on these calls is to talk about LTV to CAC. And so we're trying to optimize for that for the business. And so when we look at our media spending, we are trying to make sure that our media spending is efficient and drives an efficient LTV to CAC, definitely over one. Ideally, we want to be in the 2x to 3x range. We were not there for Q2, but we were above 1, and our goal is to move towards more increasing media efficiency.

現在請記住，了解我們業務的另一件事是談論 CAC 的 LTV。因此，我們正在努力針對業務進行最佳化。因此，當我們審視我們的媒體支出時，我們正在努力確保我們的媒體支出是高效的，並推動有效的 LTV 到 CAC，絕對超過 1。理想情況下，我們希望在 2 倍到 3 倍範圍內。第二季我們沒有達到目標，但我們的成績高於 1，我們的目標是進一步提高媒體效率。

Now on the Connected Fitness gross margins, we do expect -- we don't guide specifically to Connected Fitness gross margin, but we do expect some improvement in the back half of the year, in part because our Tread+ deliveries which actually just started will benefit gross margin in the back half. That will be -- we do see a little bit of pressure from areas like bike rental as that continues to take share, that will put a little bit of pressure on our Connected Fitness gross margin, but we do expect sequential quarterly improvement.

現在，就 Connected Fitness 毛利率而言，我們確實預計 - 我們不會具體指導 Connected Fitness 毛利率，但我們確實預計今年下半年會有所改善，部分原因是我們實際上剛開始的 Tread+ 交付將下半年毛利率受益。那將是 - 我們確實看到來自自行車租賃等領域的一些壓力，因為它繼續佔據份額，這將對我們的 Connected Fitness 毛利率帶來一些壓力，但我們確實預計季度環比會有所改善。

Now it is important to note, though, with gross margin coming back to the LTV to CAC feet. Gross margin and promotional activity, obviously, that affects gross margin. And so we're optimizing for LTV to CAC. And if we see the opportunity is better to reduce our LTV by reducing our gross margin and optimizing our media spend accordingly, we'll make that trade-off and evaluate it as we go.

不過，現在值得注意的是，毛利率已回到 LTV 至 CAC 英尺的水平。毛利率和促銷活動顯然會影響毛利率。因此，我們正在針對 LTV 到 CAC 進行最佳化。如果我們認為有更好的機會透過降低毛利率並相應優化媒體支出來降低生命週期價值，我們將做出權衡並隨時進行評估。

I wouldn't say at a high level, I'm pretty optimistic about our ability to try to bring more efficiency out of the marketing spend, and we're making some structural changes in the way that we run the business that will help contribute to increased operating leverage. And I'm being -- I realize I'm being vague, but I'm being intentionally vague, but it's among the reasons why I have some optimism about that go-forward performance.

我不會在高層說，我對我們嘗試提高行銷支出效率的能力非常樂觀，而且我們正在對業務運作方式進行一些結構性改變，這將有助於做出貢獻以提高經營槓桿。我意識到我很含糊，但我是故意含糊的，但這就是我對未來表現樂觀的原因之一。

Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

謝謝。請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自 Shweta Khajuria 和 Evercore ISI 的血統。

I have two, please. One, Liz, could you please talk about the free cash flow. So your guidance now calls for lower expectations than what you talked about last quarter, you expect to be positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter and not for the full year. So help us think about why the change and what drove that?

我有兩個，拜託。一，Liz，您能談談自由現金流嗎？因此，您的指導現在要求的預期低於您上季度談到的預期，您預計第四季度而非全年的自由現金流為正。那麼請幫助我們思考為什麼會發生這種變化以及是什麼推動了這種變化？

And then the second question is on how to think about the impact from TikTok and Lululemon is $10 million a quarter that you quantified last time. Did it come in better than expected? How should we think about it going forward? And then the impact of TikTok on P&L, please?

第二個問題是如何看待 TikTok 和 Lululemon 的影響，您上次量化的是每季 1000 萬美元。效果比預期的好嗎？今後我們該如何思考？那麼 TikTok 對損益表的影響是什麼呢？

Sure. So let's start with the free cash flow question. Why is our free cash flow outlook lower than we had previously expected. So -- for Q2, while our paid subscriptions for Connected Fitness outperformed our expectations, our hardware sales, as I mentioned earlier, were a bit softer than we expected. So we're projecting that softness as it from a trend perspective to continue into Q3 and Q4, and that creates a bit of a cash headwind for us. We're also continuing to see that mix shift into bike rental or FaaS and that puts pressure on our cash because, again, we don't collect all of that hardware revenue upfront.

當然。讓我們從自由現金流問題開始。為什麼我們的自由現金流前景低於我們先前的預期。因此，在第二季度，雖然我們的 Connected Fitness 付費訂閱超出了我們的預期，但正如我之前提到的，我們的硬體銷售比我們的預期要軟一些。因此，我們從趨勢角度預計這種疲軟將持續到第三季度和第四季度，這給我們帶來了一些現金阻力。我們也繼續看到這種混合轉向自行車租賃或 FaaS，這給我們的現金帶來了壓力，因為我們不會預先收取所有硬體收入。

And then if you put that together, it means we have a bit of a cash headwind from inventory compared to our prior forecast. And that's mainly coming from our bikes. We also had a few payment timing benefits that pushed from Q2 into Q3 that helped Q2 cash flow, but will impact us a bit in Q3. Now the other question was about TikTok and Lululemon. I can probably take the Lulu piece, Barry, I don't know if you want to talk about...

如果你把它們放在一起，這意味著與我們之前的預測相比，我們在庫存方面遇到了一些現金阻力。這主要來自我們的自行車。我們也獲得了一些從第二季推到第三季的付款時間優勢，這有助於第二季的現金流，但會對第三季的我們產生一些影響。現在另一個問題是關於 TikTok 和 Lululemon 的。我大概可以接受露露的作品，巴里，我不知道你是否想談談...

Sure (inaudible) $10 million, and I think one in confirmation.

當然（聽不清楚）1000 萬美元，我認為其中一個已得到確認。

Oh, yes. So yes, our lululemon partnership, at least we're talking about the Studio -- the studio all access members that have the -- what was firmly known as the Mirror hardware product. That performed as expected, actually a slightly a bit better than we expected. So that is on track. And then TikTok -- that is really a marketing relationship with TikTok that we -- it's early days. We don't have a lot of explicit assumptions around how that is going to provide upside to our financials going forward in Q3 and Q4.

哦是的。所以，是的，我們的 lululemon 合作夥伴關係，至少我們正在談論工作室 - 該工作室的所有訪問成員都擁有 - 眾所周知的 Mirror 硬體產品。表現符合預期，實際上比我們預期的要好一些。所以一切都步入正軌了。然後是 TikTok——這實際上是我們與 TikTok 的營銷關係——現在還處於早期階段。對於這將如何為我們第三季和第四季的財務狀況帶來好處，我們沒有太多明確的假設。

Yes. We're in the third week of the TikTok deal, and we've seen a very substantial increase in the number of pieces of content in those 3 weeks. Week 3 compared to week 1, I think it was about a 50% increase, and we've seen a 3x increase in total views, but it's much too early to know where that's going to land. We're excited, our first live class had over 130,000 BUs, which is a pretty good start, but I'm sure we can do much better than that.

是的。目前正處於 TikTok 交易的第三週，我們看到這三週內內容數量大幅增加。與第一週相比，第 3 週增加了 50% 左右，總觀看次數增加了 3 倍，但現在判斷其效果還為時過早。我們很興奮，我們的第一堂直播課有超過 130,000 個 BU，這是一個很好的開始，但我相信我們可以做得更好。

The important thing to note is we're reaching a demo that's much younger and TikTok is proving to be an enormously effective platform to help us do that. So we want to lean into that. I think that if we do it well, it has implications for growth and app. But it's way too early to have any meaningful insights yet. The other thing I'd say is, for those of you who saw the headline yesterday that TikTok squared off with universal over music rights, but I want that doesn't implicate our marketing agreement, our content on TikTok is fully licensed with the labels.

需要注意的重要一點是，我們正在實現一個更年輕的演示，事實證明 TikTok 是一個非常有效的平台，可以幫助我們做到這一點。所以我們想深入研究這一點。我認為，如果我們做得好，就會對成長和應用程式產生影響。但現在得出任何有意義的見解還為時過早。我要說的另一件事是，對於昨天看到標題的人來說，TikTok 與環球公司就音樂版權展開了較量，但我希望這並不意味著我們的營銷協議，我們在TikTok 上的內容已獲得唱片公司的完全許可。

There is one thing I wanted to comment on with regard to the $10 million from lululemon for the studio all Access members. That was just reflective of November and December. So that was just 2 months in Q2, and it will be an obviously a full quarter in Q3 and beyond.

關於 lululemon 為工作室所有 Access 會員提供的 1000 萬美元，我想評論一件事。這只是 11 月和 12 月的情況。所以這只是第二季的兩個月，而第三季及以後顯然將是一個完整的季度。

Coming back to the cash flow thing here is what I would say. Let's remind ourselves what the 2 objectives for the business, one is stop the bleeding. The other is grow the business. I'd hope that we would generate more cash flow in the second half of the year than we currently think we're going to. But the important thing is we still think we will cross the finish line and get cash flow positive in Q4. And if you look at our balance sheet, that the business is not going away, which for a long time was a systemic threat. So because of that, we're able to focus on renewed growth.

回到現金流問題，這就是我要說的。讓我們提醒自己，企業的兩個目標是什麼，一是止血。另一個是發展業務。我希望我們下半年能產生比目前預期更多的現金流。但重要的是，我們仍然認為我們將在第四季度衝過終點線並實現正現金流。如果你看一下我們的資產負債表，你會發現這項業務並沒有消失，這在很長一段時間內都是系統性威脅。因此，我們能夠專注於新的成長。

Now what have we accomplished in the last 2 years to assist with that. Well, there's been very little product innovation. We reintroduced an existing product, Tread+, and we launched the Rower, which mostly we sell to existing subscribers and a little bit to new members. So not much on the product side, a lot of innovation with respect to the business model, different go-to-market strategies, 3P and FaaS (inaudible) were the examples. I think what you're going to see in the next 2 years is a significant product innovation and which I'm very excited about because I think we have a real shot at changing in a meaningful way at the growth trajectory of the business.

現在我們在過去兩年中取得了哪些成就來協助實現這一目標。嗯，產品創新很少。我們重新推出了現有產品 Tread+，並推出了 Rower，我們主要將其銷售給現有訂閱者，也有少量銷售給新會員。因此，產品方面並沒有太多，商業模式的大量創新、不同的上市策略、3P 和 FaaS（聽不清楚）就是例子。我認為未來兩年​​你將看到重大的產品創新，對此我感到非常興奮，因為我認為我們真正有機會以有意義的方式改變業務的成長軌跡。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自阿尼莎謝爾曼和伯恩斯坦的血統。

Barry, you've talked about the seasonality of the business with more growth clustered in the winter months. Can you square that with your view of flat growth in Q3, which is a winter quarter, especially in the light of all the successful initiatives you've highlighted in your letter? And then on the other side of this, you're lapping a weak Q4 this year, and you expect positive growth. Are you comfortable with having fully lapped the seasonality effect at that point. So from Q4 onward, you're basically like-for-like on seasonality?

巴里，您談到了業務的季節性，更多的成長集中在冬季。您能否將這一點與您對第三季（即冬季季度）成長持平的看法相一致，特別是考慮到您在信中強調的所有成功舉措？另一方面，今年第四季表現疲軟，但預計會出現正成長。您是否願意充分考慮此時的季節性影響？那麼從第四季開始，你們在季節性方面基本上是一樣的？

Well, our view on -- maybe we've communicated poorly, but our D1 seasonality hasn't changed, actually. It is Q2, the holiday season, which drives 40-plus percent of the annual volume. And and there's not much seasonality in the rest of the year, slows in the summer months a little bit. But -- that would be the only other qualifier I would mention.

好吧，我們的觀點——也許我們溝通得不好，但實際上我們的 D1 季節性並沒有改變。現在是第二季度，即假期，帶動了全年 40% 以上的銷量。而且一年中剩餘時間沒有太多季節性，夏季月份會稍微放緩。但是——這將是我要提到的唯一的其他限定詞。

And I also think it depends on what you're looking at. If you're looking at subscribers, we do expect to grow subscribers in Q3. So both on the Connected Fitness side as well as the app side.

我還認為這取決於你在看什麼。如果您關注訂閱者，我們確實預計第三季訂閱者會增加。因此，無論是在 Connected Fitness 方面還是在應用程式方面。

Now we did deal with the seat post recall beginning in May of last year, and that certainly caused a lot of softness for the B1 bike. But we've been living with that softness for B1 bike ever since. So it's not like consumers suddenly rediscovered a love for that product in the aftermath. We see significantly different trajectory for unit growth for Bike+ by the way, but.

現在，我們確實從去年 5 月開始處理了座桿召回問題，這無疑給 B1 自行車帶來了極大的疲軟。但從那時起，我們就一直忍受 B1 自行車的柔軟性。因此，消費者並不是事後突然重新發現了對產品的喜愛。順便說一句，我們看到 Bike+ 的單位成長軌跡明顯不同，但。

And also our treadmill products, we're seeing growth there.

還有我們的跑步機產品，我們看到了成長。

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that wasn't the case. I just meant to say that if you're expecting sort of resurgence in demand post the seat post recall for B1 bike that really hasn't -- that hasn't happened.

抱歉，我並不是有意暗示情況並非如此。我只是想說，如果您期望 B1 自行車座管召回後需求會有所回升，但事實並非如此——那並沒有發生。

And if I can ask a quick follow-up. Do you believe at this point, you're kind of huge inflection in growth your 2020, 2021 cohorts. Have those COVID users now sort of normalized in terms of churn and your churn level is now back to normal across cohorts, including the COVID cohort?

如果我可以要求快速跟進。您是否相信，在這一點上，您是 2020 年、2021 年團體成長的巨大轉捩點。這些新冠病毒用戶的流失率現在是否已經正常化，您的流失程度現在在各個群組（包括新冠病毒群組）中恢復正常了嗎？

Yes. I would assume that's the case. Yes.

是的。我想情況就是如此。是的。

I think there was a short thesis that maybe they came in with COVID and they're all going to fly out the door afterwards, and that just -- that's just flat wrong.

我認為有一個簡短的論點是，也許他們帶著新冠病毒進來，然後他們都會飛出家門，這完全是錯誤的。

If you look at our churn profile, our churn rates and you look at them on a cohorted basis, like at a 12-month churn rate by cohort, it's not coming down substantially in any way. The only factor that are influence just to add one more comment, the only factors that do influence our churn are the mix into the bike rental, which we have talked about in prior quarters, where our bike rental subscriptions do have a higher churn rate than our regular All Access Members, although we are working to bring that down, and it did improve quarter-over-quarter in Q2, which is great.

如果您查看我們的客戶流失概況、我們的客戶流失率，並按群組查看它們，例如按群組查看 12 個月的客戶流失率，您會發現它並沒有以任何方式大幅下降。唯一影響的因素只是添加一條評論，唯一影響我們流失的因素是自行車租賃的混合，我們在前幾個季度已經討論過，我們的自行車租賃訂閱的流失率確實比我們的常規All Access 會員，儘管我們正在努力降低這一點，但第二季度的情況確實比上一季有所改善，這非常棒。

And then also, I think we've talked about in prior calls, the secondary market, which is the people who buy a bike not through us, but through someone else like from a marketplace of Sunport that those do have a slightly higher churn than people who buy directly from us. And so as that increases, that will put some pressure on our churn as well. But our underlying churn for our All Access Members that come through is pretty stable.

另外，我想我們在之前的電話中已經討論過，二級市場，即那些不是透過我們購買自行車的人，而是透過其他人購買自行車的人，例如來自Sunport 市場的人，這些人的流失率確實比直接從我們這裡購買的人。隨著這種情況的增加，這也會對我們的客戶流失帶來一些壓力。但我們的 All Access 會員的潛在流失率相當穩定。

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

謝謝。請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。我們的下一個問題將來自愛德華·尤魯瑪（Edward Yruma）和派珀·桑德勒（Piper Sandler）。

Two quick ones from me. I guess, first, Barry, a bigger picture question. You've been at this for some time and certainly had some success in turning the business around. But I guess as you step back and think about Connected Fitness and growing it. It seems like you had most success we're able to lower the cost of ownership. So I'm trying to understand it, it is further growth predicated on continuing to drive down cost of ownership to things like rental? Or is it still a marketing issue. And then as a follow-up, just so I'm clear on the pop sale, was that aligned with the impairments you've taken? And are there further impairments that are necessary when you close that?

我的兩個快的。巴里，我想，首先，這是一個更大的問題。您從事這行已經有一段時間了，並且在扭轉業務方面確實取得了一些成功。但我想當你退一步思考互聯健身並發展它時。看來您取得了最大的成功，我們能夠降低擁有成本。所以我試著去理解它，它的進一步成長取決於繼續降低租賃等事物的擁有成本嗎？或者這仍然是一個行銷問題。然後作為後續行動，我很清楚流行音樂銷售，這與您所採取的減值一致嗎？當你關閉它時，是否還需要進一步的減值？

Let me acknowledge that you're quite right that the go-to-market innovations that have resulted in lower cost of entry like FaaS, like refurb have been enormously successful. I mean FaaS is now a $100 million run rate business from 0 and we grew not quite 300% year-over-year in the quarter. And we see very fast growth in the secondary market north of 40%. So value matters.

讓我承認，您說得很對，像 FaaS 和 refurb 這樣的進入市場的創新已經取得了巨大的成功，這些創新降低了進入成本。我的意思是，FaaS 現在是一個從 0 開始運轉率高達 1 億美元的業務，我們在本季的同比增長不到 300%。我們看到二級市場成長非常快，成長了 40% 以上。所以價值很重要。

Now lots of ways to deliver value. And one of the ways to do it, which we had great success with at Spotify and Netflix was by investing in the product and the user experience. And I think there's a tremendous opportunity for us going forward to lean into the performance aspect of the market with premium priced products in order to drive new growth for us, meaningful growth. And I think an existence proof that there's an appetite amongst consumers for that kind of positioning is the Tread+ by way of example.

現在有很多方法可以提供價值。我們在 Spotify 和 Netflix 取得了巨大成功的方法之一就是對產品和使用者體驗進行投資。我認為，我們有一個巨大的機會，可以透過優質產品深入市場的性能方面，從而推動我們新的成長，有意義的成長。我認為 Tread+ 是消費者對這種定位有興趣的證據。

So if you give people something they want, they'd be delighted to pay for it, but it has to be a uniquely compelling user experience. And which is why we're leaning heavily into investing in product innovation. And now we have to have the right talent in the building to pursue that. We had some pretty interesting talent walk into the building last quarter. And I'm pretty optimistic based on what's being discussed in the building today.

因此，如果你為人們提供他們想要的東西，他們會很樂意為此付費，但它必須是一種獨特且引人注目的用戶體驗。這就是為什麼我們大力投資產品創新。現在我們必須擁有合適的人才來實現這一目標。上個季度我們有一些非常有趣的人才走進了大樓。根據今天大樓裡討論的內容，我非常樂觀。

And then just really quickly on that question about POP and impairments. In Q2, we did book an impairment charge of roughly about $2 million to bring our -- the value of POP in line with what we sold it for, and that gets closed in early Q3.

然後很快就關於 POP 和損傷的問題。在第二季度，我們確實記入了大約 200 萬美元的減損費用，以使 POP 的價值與我們出售的價格一致，並在第三季初結束。

Thank you One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Youssef Squali with Truist Securities.

謝謝您，請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自 Youssef Squali 與 Truist Securities 的團隊。

So a couple of questions. Maybe starting with bike rental, that's one of the positive developments that you had in the business. Can you maybe just remind us about maybe the size of it today, but more importantly, kind of the unit economics. I think in the letter, you mentioned attractive economics. How have they kind of performed over time. Where are we now relative to maybe the rest of the business? And then on Q4 guide, Q4 is typically one of the weaker quarters that you're guiding for inflection point to growth there. Can you maybe just help us with the puts and takes as to what needs to happen for you guys to hit that milestone?

有幾個問題。也許從自行車租賃開始，這是您在業務中取得的積極進展之一。您能否提醒我們今天的規模，但更重要的是單位經濟效益。我想你在信中提到了有吸引力的經濟學。隨著時間的推移，他們的表現如何？相對於其他業務，我們現在處於什麼位置？然後，在第四季度指南中，第四季度通常是您所指導的成長轉折點的較弱季度之一。您能否幫助我們了解如何實現這一里程碑？

I'm going to let ask Liz to take most of that, but I just want to make one observation about FaaS linking back to a previous question. We had about seasonality. So the one thing we learned last year about FaaS and saw again this year, FaaS it's not very seasonal. The demand seems to be pretty consistent across the calendar year. Now we did see accelerated growth in FaaS this quarter, but that's because of some work we've done on landing pages and the way we're merchandising it to members to make it more easily discoverable and put it on level footing with a sale rather than bearing it down in the footnotes where it had previously lived and allowing it to service on Google Search by way of example, rather than bearing it. Liz, do you want to talk about the Q4?

我將讓 Liz 承擔大部分內容，但我只想就 FaaS 與上一個問題的聯繫做出一個觀察。我們有關於季節性的問題。因此，我們去年了解到 FaaS 並今年再次看到的一件事是，FaaS 的季節性不是很強。全年的需求似乎相當一致。現在，我們確實看到本季度FaaS 加速成長，但這是因為我們在登陸頁面上做了一些工作，以及我們向會員推銷它的方式，以使其更容易被發現，並使其與銷售保持同等水平，而不是而不是將其記在以前存在的腳註中，並允許其在 Google 搜尋上提供服務，而不是承載它。 LZ，你想談談Q4嗎？

Yes. So let me first -- let me talk -- I do want to provide a little bit of information about FaaS around the unit economics. So our unit economics for FaaS are improving. Our churn was better than it was in Q1. It's -- as I mentioned, it's still higher than it is for those who buy our bikes out right. And we're continuing to work on closing the gap between that rental churn and purchase churn. But it did improve quarter-over-quarter. It was slightly under 5%, and we've talked about it being around 5%.

是的。首先，讓我談談——我確實想圍繞單位經濟學提供一些有關 FaaS 的資訊。因此，我們的 FaaS 單位經濟效益正在改善。我們的客戶流失情況比第一季好。正如我所提到的，它仍然高於那些直接購買我們自行車的人。我們正在繼續努力縮小租賃流失率和購買流失率之間的差距。但它確實比上一季有所改善。它略低於 5%，我們已經討論過它在 5% 左右。

100 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

季增 100 個基點。

Yes, 100 basis points of improvement quarter-over-quarter versus Q1. With that -- part of that -- as a result of that, we have -- our average payback is now averaging around 16 months for FaaS, which is also an improvement over Q1. But one thing to note about FaaS is that we are still using pretty rich mix of refurbished units. And as we lower our churn going forward and continue to make improvements there and also continue to provide the right incentive structure for folks to buy out their rentals, we expect to be able to shift to a richer mix of new bikes at some point in the future as we continue to sell down, sell through that refurbished inventory while achieving an attractive payback results.

是的，與第一季相比，季度環比改善了 100 個基點。因此，部分原因是，我們的 FaaS 平均投資回收期現在平均約為 16 個月，這也比第一季有所改善。但關於 FaaS 需要注意的一件事是，我們仍在使用相當豐富的翻新單元組合。隨著我們未來降低客戶流失率並繼續進行改進，並繼續為人們購買租賃產品提供正確的激勵結構，我們預計能夠在未來的某個時候轉向更豐富的新自行車組合未來，隨著我們繼續降價銷售，出售翻新庫存，同時實現有吸引力的回報結果。

So that's all good news. Now there was a question about the Q4 inflection, and I think that, that is really looking at revenue growth. Q4 is -- from a subscriber perspective, our guidance is that we'll end the year for Connected Fitness subs just slightly -- if you look at our implied guidance has as ending just slightly above where we started the year. So it is a seasonally tough quarter for growth. And part of the revenue growth that you see in Q4 is driven by the fact that we will be continuing to deliver Tread+ and so again, our Tread+ mix to date so far, maybe that -- hopefully that will shift over time, skews a lot towards existing subscribers rather than new ones.

這都是好消息。現在有一個關於第四季度拐點的問題，我認為，這實際上是在關注收入成長。第四季——從訂戶的角度來看，我們的指導意見是，我們將在今年結束Connected Fitness 訂閱者的情況——如果你看看我們隱含的指導意見，我們的指導意見結果是略高於我們年初的水平。因此，這是一個季節性成長困難的季度。你在第四季度看到的收入成長的部分原因是我們將繼續提供 Tread+，所以到目前為止，我們的 Tread+ 組合可能會隨著時間的推移而發生變化，偏差很大針對現有訂閱者而不是新訂閱者。

And again, that makes sense because we just relaunched it. And so that will help bolster revenue in Q4 on a year-over-year basis.

再說一遍，這是有道理的，因為我們只是重新啟動了它。因此，這將有助於增加第四季度的收入同比。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自蒙特利爾銀行資本市場部門的西蒙·西格爾 (Simeon Siegel)。

So congrats on the strength of third-party retailers, can you remind us what the unit level revenue and margins look like for a bike sold or any equipment sold via third-party retailer versus when you sell it directly. And then you called out -- and I think you've spoken a few times currently about the continued growth in the secondary market sales. Can you just let us know roughly what percent of the current CF subscriptions are on their second like or so?

因此，恭喜第三方零售商的實力，您能否提醒我們，與直接銷售相比，透過第三方零售商銷售的自行車或任何設備的單位收入和利潤情況如何。然後你大聲疾呼——我想你目前已經多次談到二級市場銷售的持續成長。您能否告訴我們目前 CF 訂閱者中大約有多少百分比是在第二個左右？

So the first question sounded like it was related to unit economics for third party. So our -- from a gross margin perspective, the unit economics for selling through a third-party channel like a Dick's Sporting Goods or an Amazon are lower because, obviously, there is that margin that we have to give to the wholesaler to that third-party retailer. Where we sort of make up the difference on that is in our market -- our sales and marketing spend. So we expect our customer acquisition costs through those channels to be substantially lower, and that's what we optimize for as well as driving as much of that those units have incremental units through those channels as we possibly can. And so that's the key difference.

所以第一個問題聽起來像是跟第三方的單位經濟效益有關。因此，從毛利率的角度來看，透過迪克體育用品或亞馬遜等第三方管道銷售的單位經濟效益較低，因為顯然我們必須向第三方批發商提供利潤-派對零售商。我們彌補這一差異的地方在於我們的市場——我們的銷售和行銷支出。因此，我們預期透過這些管道獲取客戶的成本將大幅降低，這就是我們優化的目的，也是我們盡可能透過這些管道推動這些單位增加單位數量的原因。這就是關鍵的區別。

So you see the gross margin pressure from third-party and it should be offset, and that's how we model and that's how we run those channels with more efficient sales and marketing spending. Now the other question was what percentage of our Connected Fitness subs are coming from the secondary market, I think. It's increasing quarter-over-quarter. In Q2, it was actually slightly down as a percentage of our total gross additions versus Q1, just under 30% coming from that channel.

因此，您會看到來自第三方的毛利率壓力，它應該被抵消，這就是我們的建模方式，這就是我們如何以更有效率的銷售和行銷支出來經營這些管道。現在的另一個問題是，我認為我們的 Connected Fitness 訂閱者中有多少比例來自二級市場。它逐季增加。在第二季度，與第一季相比，它占我們總增量的百分比實際上略有下降，來自該管道的比例略低於 30%。

Let me come back to 3P for a minute and let's talk about FaaS in the same context -- the rental program in the same context. It only makes sense to give up margin if the customers you're acquiring are -- if a large percentage is incremental. And it's relatively easy to do the math to figure out what the crossover point is where you're economically advantaged by making the lower margin trade-off.

讓我回到 3P 上來，讓我們在相同的背景下討論 FaaS——相同背景下的租賃程序。只有當你獲得的客戶中有很大一部分是增量客戶時，放棄利潤才有意義。透過計算來找出交叉點是相對容易的，在該交叉點上，您可以透過進行較低的利潤權衡來獲得經濟優勢。

Now in Q4, we had explosive growth with the 3P partners. And it cost us an incrementality. And so it was a really important lesson. And once we were into the quarter, there was no way to undo the sales of inventory that to our third 3P partners that were competing with us during the holiday season. So what we learned is there are periods that are sort of uniquely special. We're just those partners individually, Prime Day by way of example are on promotion, and we can move a lot of units. And there are other times of the year when you could come to us, you could go to them. Consumer might be indifferent, but we're not. And we need to be more thoughtful about our sell-through to those partners during those periods of time.

現在在第四季度，我們與 3P 合作夥伴實現了爆炸性成長。這讓我們付出了增量的代價。所以這是一個非常重要的教訓。一旦進入本季度，我們就無法撤銷向在假期季節與我們競爭的第三個 3P 合作夥伴的庫存銷售。所以我們了解到，有些時期是獨一無二的。我們只是這些單獨的合作夥伴，例如 Prime Day 正在促銷，我們可以移動很多單位。一年中的其他時候，您可以來找我們，也可以去找他們。消費者可能會漠不關心，但我們不會。在這段時間裡，我們需要更加考慮向這些合作夥伴的銷售。

I think we talked about the incrementality on FaaS, it's north of 60% in the more like 63%, 62% pretty consistently since we started. So even though economics as compared with at least the cash flow aspects of it or less attractive than the sell-through. We're absolutely able to attract a significant audience that we wouldn't otherwise be attracting.

我想我們討論了 FaaS 的增量，自我們開始以來，它一直在 60% 以上，更像是 63%、62%。因此，儘管與經濟學相比，至少在現金流方面，它的吸引力還是不如銷售量。我們絕對能夠吸引大量原本無法吸引的觀眾。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

請稍等一下我們的下一個問題。這將來自約翰·布萊克利奇 (John Blackledge) 和 TD·考恩 (TD Cowen) 的血統。

That's great. just on Tread+, Liz kind of just addressed it. My question is, is demand more so from existing members? Or is it a mix of existing and new members. I think she said more so from existing members now. But I guess as we get through the second half and into next year, would you see -- would you expect to see more demand from new members given the market is 2x bigger than the bike market. And then my second question on paid apps. The high end, it looks like the high end of paid app subs is down a little bit. Just how should we think about trajectory of paid app subs kind of into the back half and kind of into fiscal '25 and beyond.

那太棒了。就在 Tread+ 上，莉茲剛剛解決了這個問題。我的問題是，現有會員的需求是否更多？或是現有成員和新成員的混合體。我認為她現在對現有成員說得更多了。但我想，當我們度過下半年並進入明年時，您是否會看到——鑑於市場比自行車市場大兩倍，您是否期望看到新會員的更多需求。然後是我關於付費應用程式的第二個問題。高端，付費應用程式訂閱的高端似乎有所下降。我們應該如何思考付費應用程式訂閱者進入後半段以及進入 25 財年及以後的軌跡。

I think we'll probably comment here, John. Thanks for the question. I think you're absolutely right that we -- it's reasonable to expect that we would see a shift in the mix from existing members to new members because, of course, today, really the only members who know what the Tread+ represents are the existing members.

我想我們可能會在這裡發表評論，約翰。謝謝你的提問。我認為你說得完全正確，我們有理由期望我們會看到現有成員到新成員的組合發生轉變，因為當然，今天唯一知道 Tread+ 代表什麼的成員是現有成員成員。

We also -- our Tread+ is actually just reviewed as the best overall Tread in 2024 by CNN, which is -- which should also help grow the awareness of the product.

我們的 Tread+ 實際上剛剛被 CNN 評為 2024 年最佳整體 Tread，這也應該有助於提高產品的知名度。

And with respect to the app, I think in the past, we've referred to it as the best product we have that nobody knows about. The unaided brand awareness, which was down 1% is the unaided brand awareness is 6%.

至於該應用程序，我認為在過去，我們將其稱為無人知曉的最佳產品。獨立品牌知名度下降了 1%，而獨立品牌知名度為 6%。

There was a question about the range. So I can take that part. So...

有一個關於範圍的問題。所以我可以承擔那部分。所以...

Sorry, hang on a second. Yes. I just wanted to talk about sort of the momentum and where we are in the learning curve and because I think it important to us about our go-forward view. So at a very high level, I think if your question is, okay, so we restructured our app pricing model. Is the business better off for having done it? And the answer is that today, not yet. But we think the crossover point happens in June, and we're pretty optimistic about the trend line we're on now. We footfaulted early when we focus primarily on free. We struggled with that for several months and then we pivoted to focusing on the paid piece. And ever since we focused on the paid piece, we have seen significant progress.

抱歉，請稍等。是的。我只是想談談我們的動力以及我們在學習曲線中的位置，因為我認為我們的前進觀點對我們很重要。因此，在很高的層面上，我認為如果您的問題是，好的，那麼我們就重組了我們的應用程式定價模型。這樣做之後，企業的境況是否會變得更好？答案是今天還沒有。但我們認為交叉點發生在六月，我們對現在所處的趨勢線非常樂觀。當我們主要關注免費時，我們很早就犯了錯誤。我們為此苦苦掙扎了幾個月，然後我們轉向專注於付費作品。自從我們專注於付費作品以來，我們已經看到了顯著的進步。

And we continue to make important steps in improving the overall user experience. And by the way, this is where the work we're doing in personalization. We'll be having its biggest impact and where some of the partnerships we've struck like TikTok, by way of example, will help drive significant growth, I think. Okay. Sorry, Liz, over to you.

我們將繼續在改善整體用戶體驗方面採取重要措施。順便說一句，這就是我們在個人化方面所做的工作。我認為，我們將產生最大的影響，我們與 TikTok 等建立的一些合作夥伴關係將有助於推動顯著成長。好的。對不起，莉茲，交給你了。

And I was just going to point out that if you look at our guidance, what it implies is that Q2 was sort of the low of our paid app subscriber base. That makes sense because we just completed the time frame that our legacy paid out members we're able to receive the app plus level of content for the app 1 price. And we were actually quite in a positive way surprised that on the retention level of those subscribers given the expiration of their legacy period. So we feel like we've sort of bottomed in Q2. And now the question is how quickly can we grow the subbase from there over the next couple of quarters. And as Barry pointed out, there's a lot of great things that we are working on and that those features will continue to roll out over the coming quarters. And so there is some uncertainty on how quickly we'll be able to grow it.

我只是想指出，如果你看看我們的指導，它意味著第二季是我們付費應用程式訂閱者基數的最低點。這是有道理的，因為我們剛剛完成了我們的遺產向會員支付的時間範圍，我們能夠以應用程式 1 的價格接收應用程式和內容等級。事實上，我們對這些訂戶的保留水準感到非常驚訝，因為他們的遺留期限已經到期。所以我們覺得我們已經在第二季觸底了。現在的問題是，在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們能以多快的速度發展底基地。正如巴里指出的那樣，我們正在開發許多偉大的事情，這些功能將在未來幾季繼續推出。因此，我們能夠以多快的速度發展它存在一些不確定性。

And then there's also things like as we talk about our Peloton for business offerings and our corporate wellness space, that's a great opportunity for us. We are -- those deals, they're negotiations, and they do take time. And so there's a lot of uncertainty on when those deals and negotiations will close. And those could be a great accelerant and app subscription growth for us. But there isn't a whole lot contemplated in our guidance in the next couple of quarters for that to happen. So there's a lot of upside potential just reflects the uncertainty of how quickly we will be able to accelerate that over the next couple of quarters.

然後還有一些事情，例如當我們談論我們的 Peloton 商業產品和我們的企業健康空間時，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會。我們——那些交易，它們正在談判，它們確實需要時間。因此，這些交易和談判何時結束存在很大的不確定性。這些對我們來說可能是一個巨大的促進劑和應用程式訂閱成長。但我們在未來幾季的指導中並未考慮到這一點的發生。因此，存在著很大的上行潛力，這反映出我們在未來幾季能夠以多快的速度加速這一進程的不確定性。

But we're -- as Barry said, we're super optimistic about it. There's lots of great signs, particularly on the lower churn front and the engagement front that suggests that the app could be a great opportunity for us to accelerate growth.

但正如巴里所說，我們對此非常樂觀。有許多很好的跡象，特別是在較低的客戶流失率和參與度方面，表明該應用程式可能是我們加速成長的絕佳機會。

And our last question for the day will come from the line of Lee Horowitz with Deutsche Bank.

今天我們的最後一個問題將來自德意志銀行的李‧霍洛維茲（Lee Horowitz）。

Great. Barry, you talked in the letter about outgrowing the overall connected fitness market. Subs growing sort of marginally year-on-year, which would suggest that the overall market sort of remain depressed at this point. I guess how do you think about sort of what's holding the market back and growing more meaningfully at this point? How do you think about the conditions that maybe allow some of those headwinds to abate and sort of what do you think about the sort of long-term sort of growth rate of this overall market at a steady state?

偉大的。巴里，您在信中談到了整體互聯健身市場的成長速度。潛艇同比略有增長，顯示目前整體市場仍處於低迷狀態。我想您如何看待目前阻礙市場發展並更有意義成長的因素？您如何看待可能讓其中一些不利因素減弱的條件？您如何看待整個市場在穩定狀態下的長期成長率？

I don't really know what the long-term growth rate of the market is. It's got to be at least population growth I would think with a couple of accelerants. The more you (inaudible), the more important it is that you invest in your health and the more likely you are to have disposable income available to make that investment for one.

我真的不知道市場的長期成長率是多少。我想，如果有一些促進劑的話，至少會導致人口成長。您（聽不清楚）越多，對健康的投資就越重要，您就越有可能擁有可用於進行這項投資的可支配收入。

Two, no question that product innovation drives growth. And there's a lot of really interesting technology coming into the marketplace to help drive that. In our case, we really only scratched the service and gamification. That's going to be a vector for growth for us. Liz mentioned, corporate wellness that is having a moment in corporate America for sure, where companies are investing at the margin increasingly in fitness, nutrition, mental wellness by way of example. And I think we're well positioned to participate in that.

第二，毫無疑問產品創新推動成長。市場上出現了許多非常有趣的技術來幫助推動這一目標。就我們而言，我們實際上只觸及了服務和遊戲化。這將成為我們成長的載體。莉茲提到，企業健康在美國企業界肯定佔有一席之地，例如，企業越來越常在健身、營養、心理健康方面進行邊際投資。我認為我們有能力參與其中。

And then lastly, it's pretty clear from the introduction of Row and the introduction of Tread+, innovation drives growth. And we've been busy saving ourselves the last 2 years. And now we're positioned to invest in innovation. Again, it's innovation that put us on the map in the first place. There's a lot of talent in the building. It's a matter of getting it organized and focused in a really productive way. I think it is going to be an impactful player there. I think Lauren is going to be quite impactful with respect to our approach to marketing as well, plus there are a bunch of product innovation drives growth, geographic expansion drives growth.

最後，從 Row 的推出和 Tread+ 的推出中可以清楚地看出，創新推動成長。過去兩年我們一直忙著自救。現在我們準備投資創新。同樣，正是創新讓我們名聲大噪。大樓裡人才濟濟。問題在於如何以真正富有成效的方式組織並集中精力。我認為它將成為那裡有影響力的球員。我認為勞倫對我們的行銷方法也將產生相當大的影響，此外還有大量產品創新推動成長，地理擴張推動成長。

The unaided brand awareness for the product in the U.S. is 55%. And okay, anybody now by way of comparison with the unaided brand awareness is for Starbucks or Coke, the north of 90%. So there's still a lot of untapped potential even in the U.S. and by way of comparison, the unaided brand awareness in the U.K. is 37%. And in Germany, it's in the 20s. And so -- and I don't know what it is for LatAm, but it's got to be significantly lower. And we've got a lot of strength in the (inaudible) community from a content perspective. So product innovation, geographic growth and product relevance in commercial and corporate wellness should all be vectors for to drive an acceleration in sales in the next couple of years.

該產品在美國的獨立品牌知名度為 55%。好吧，現在與獨立品牌知名度相比，90% 的人都喜歡星巴克或可口可樂。因此，即使在美國，仍有大量未開發的潛力，相較之下，英國的獨立品牌知名度為 37%。而在德國，這個數字是二十多歲。所以——我不知道拉丁美洲的情況是什麼，但它肯定要低得多。從內容的角度來看，我們在（聽不清楚）社群中擁有很大的優勢。因此，產品創新、地理成長以及商業和企業健康的產品相關性都應該成為推動未來幾年銷售加速的載體。

And Mr. Stabler, as that was our final question. I'll turn the call back over to you for any closing remarks.

還有斯特布勒先生，這是我們的最後一個問題。我會將電話轉回給您，請您發表結束語。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a good day.

謝謝大家今天加入我們。我們期待下個季度與您交談。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

感謝大家的參與。今天的節目到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線。