派樂騰 (PTON) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Peloton Interactive Q2 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After a few brief opening remarks, we will begin immediately going into our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mr. Peter Stabler, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. Stabler, the floor is yours.

各位好，歡迎參加 Peloton Interactive 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。目前所有與會者均處於僅收聽模式。在簡短的開場白之後，我們將立即進入問答環節。 （操作說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我將把會議交給各位發言人，投資者關係主管 Peter Stabler 先生。 Stabler 先生，請您發言。

Thanks, Sherry. Good morning, and welcome to Peloton's Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2024 Conference Call. Joining today's call are CEO, Barry McCarthy, and CFO, Liz Coddington. Our comments and responses to your questions reflect management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that are forward-looking statements under federal securities law. Actual results may differ materially from those contained in or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business.

謝謝，雪莉。早安，歡迎參加 Peloton 2024 財年第二季電話會議。今天參加會議的是執行長 Barry McCarthy 和財務長 Liz Coddington。我們對各位提問的評論和回答僅代表管理階層截至今日的觀點，其中包含一些根據聯邦證券法屬於前瞻性陳述的聲明。由於與公司業務相關的風險和不確定性，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性陳述中包含或暗示的內容有重大差異。

For discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results, please refer to our SEC filings and today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures is provided in today's shareholder letter. I'll now turn the call over to the operator for our first question.

有關可能影響我們實際業績的重大風險和其他重要因素的討論，請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會（SEC）的文件以及今天發布的致股東信，這兩份文件均可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到。在本次電話會議中，我們將討論GAAP和非GAAP財務指標。 GAAP與非GAAP財務指標的調整表已在今天的致股東信中提供。現在，我將把電話交給接線員，回答我們的第一個問題。

One moment for our first question. And that will come from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

稍等片刻，我們第一個問題將由摩根大通的道格·安穆斯提出。

Great. A couple of questions. You called out that the treadmill market is 2x that of bikes. Can you just help us understand how you're going to lean into those products more going forward? And if Tread+ plus demand is strong, why isn't that helping free cash flow more in the back half of this year, just given the considerable existing inventory that you have? And then secondly, can you just help us understand the current mix of sales or perhaps sub additions across Telethon direct and third-party and bike rental and any thoughts on how this could trend going forward?

好的。我有幾個問題。您提到跑步機市場規模是自行車市場的兩倍。能否請您解釋一下，未來您將如何加大對跑步機產品的投資？如果Tread+ Plus的需求強勁，考慮到您目前擁有相當可觀的庫存，為什麼它在今年下半年沒有對自由現金流產生更大的影響？其次，能否請您介紹目前Telethon直銷、第三方銷售和自行車租賃的銷售組成，以及您對未來發展趨勢的看法？

Let me take the first part of the question, maybe Liz can take the second part, Doug. Thanks for joining today. The demand for Tread has been stronger than we anticipated, both for Tread and for Tread+. I think that interest in Tread+ has makes the tread look even more attractive in comparison because of the price point differences. So that would be category 1. The other exciting thing about the Tread and the fact that we're seeing real growth year-over-year in units is that for as long as I've been associated with the business, we've been largely dependent on the bike business. And now it appears that we have at least an important second leg of the stool to help support growth. Now with respect to Tread+, we do have a substantial number of units in inventory. The good news is we've paid for them. So each sale is quite helpful to cash flow and initial demand was quite strong.

讓我來回答問題的第一部分，道格，也許莉茲可以回答第二部分。感謝你今天參與討論。 Tread 和 Tread+ 的需求都比我們預期的還要強勁。我認為，由於價格差異，人們對 Tread+ 的興趣使得 Tread 顯得更具吸引力。所以，這屬於第一類。 Tread 的另一個令人興奮的地方在於，我們看到銷量實現了真正的同比增長。在我參與這項業務的這些年裡，我們一直非常依賴自行車業務。而現在看來，我們至少有了另一個重要的支柱來支撐成長。至於 Tread+，我們目前庫存相當可觀。好消息是，我們已經付清貨款了。因此，每一筆銷售都對現金流大有裨益，而且初期需求非常強勁。

We -- but we have limited sales experience, and we have limited even more limited sales experience at full price. And so a little bit uncertain about what the demand will be coming into Q4. We're also a little bit uncertain about our ability to fulfill the demand. So our first obligation is to retrofit the existing units in the field with the Rear Guard. And to the extent that we are manufacturing more rear guards than we have capacity for installs and retrofits than they're available for us to retrofit existing inventory and ship to new purchasers. So that's the perspective on Tread+. There was a mixed part of the question, Liz, I was going to kick over to you.

我們——但是我們的銷售經驗有限，尤其是全價銷售經驗更是少之又少。因此，我們對第四季的需求狀況有些不確定。我們也不確定我們是否有能力滿足這些需求。所以我們的首要任務是為現場現有的車輛加裝後護板。而且，由於我們生產的後護板數量超過了我們的安裝和改裝能力，我們無法滿足現有庫存的改裝需求，也無法將產品交付給新客戶。以上就是我們對Tread+的看法。莉茲，這個問題比較複雜，我本來想把這個問題交給你來回答。

Yes, sure. In terms of the mix, I think the question was about what are we thinking in terms of our mix going forward into the back half of the year. As far as kind of the hardware sales piece of the business, from a bike rental perspective, we are leaning into that. So we do expect to continue to see our mix shift toward the bike rental or the FaaS rental. In terms of third party, for the back half of the year, our third-party business is impacted by a lot of key moments in those third-party channels. And so we'll lean into those and depending on how well those actually do that, that may result in some mix shift into third party at certain moments, but we don't expect it to be a significantly higher portion of our sales in the back half of the year versus the first half of the year.

是的，當然。關於產品組合，我認為問題在於我們對下半年產品組合的規劃。就硬體銷售業務而言，從自行車租賃的角度來看，我們正在加大投入。因此，我們預計產品組合將繼續向自行車租賃或FaaS（功能即服務）租賃傾斜。至於第三方管道，下半年我們的第三方業務會受到許多關鍵節點的影響。因此，我們會專注於這些節點，並根據它們的實際表現，在某些節點可能會調整第三方管道的銷售額佔比，但我們預計下半年第三方管道的銷售額佔比上半年顯著增加。

I wanted just to comment about Tread. I am pretty excited about some of the content that we're going to bring to the platform. It will be oriented towards more of the performance athletes particularly marathon training. We entered into a partnership with New York RoadRunners, I'm super excited about that, and we filmed in 3D, the Marathon course, the New York Marathon course this year and that will be available on our platform for runners who are training for the marathon. And we also captured the metadata and so the elevation on the treadmill will automatically change as you progress down the course. And we hope to expand that to other leading marathons in the world and continue to lean in to that segment of the marketplace, which I think helps to reposition the brand in important ways.

我想簡單談談Tread平台。我們即將推出的一些內容讓我非常興奮。這些內容將主要針對競技運動員，尤其是馬拉松訓練者。我們與紐約路跑協會（New York RoadRunners）建立了合作關係，我對此感到非常興奮。我們用3D技術拍攝了今年的紐約馬拉松賽道，這些影片將在我們的平台上供馬拉松訓練者使用。我們也收集了元數據，因此跑步機的坡度會隨著跑者在賽道上的行進而自動調整。我們希望將這項服務推廣到世界其他頂級馬拉松賽事，並繼續深耕這個細分市場，我認為這有助於從重要方面重塑品牌形象。

One moment for our next question and that will come from the line of Ron Josey with Citi.

稍等片刻，我們的下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的 Ron Josey。

I wanted to ask on engagement, Barry. It was up 6% year-over-year. Just curious, can you tell us how engagement evolved on the platform over the last several years with Peloton offering more content across more devices. Of course, the app? Or are we seeing members adopting more of a hybrid style? Or is it one or the other is question one? And then Barry, you mentioned in the letter, you've disappointed the team can improve performance in the current quarter as you did in the second quarter. Just talk to us about some of the improvements you saw in 2Q that helped numbers come in better than expected.

巴里，我想問用戶參與度方面的問題。它同比增長了6%。我很好奇，你可以跟我們說說過去幾年Peloton平台上的使用者參與度是如何改變的嗎？ Peloton在更多設備上提供更多內容。當然，指的是App嗎？還是說我們看到會員更多地採用了混合使用方式？還是兩者只能選其一？ （第一個問題）巴里，你在信中提到，你對球隊在本季未能像第二季那樣提升業績感到失望。請跟我們談談你在第二季看到的哪些改進措施幫助業績超出了預期。

I was having trouble hearing during the second quarter improvement in 1. What helped us beat Q2. Is that the question?

第二季我聽力有點問題，但第一季有所改善。是什麼幫助我們超越了第二季？這就是問題所在嗎？

Yes. And I think you said you'd be disappointed if the team can't improve performance in the quarter similar to 2Q. So curious what happened in the last quarter to maybe do better here going forward?

是的。而且我想你說過，如果球隊本季的表現不能像第二季那樣提升，你會很失望。所以我想知道上個季度發生了什麼，或許能讓球隊在未來做得更好？

Yes. I'll do part of it and Liz will take part. Well, as you mentioned, engagement was up 6%. The Connected Fitness engagement was up 4% year-over-year, and the app was up 7% year-over-year. We have not really made significant progress yet in personalization. I should say it differently, we've made good progress, but we can run a lot faster and we can do significantly better. And I am tremendously excited about the work that we are doing now and the insights that (inaudible) brings to the table. And I think a year from now, we're going to be in a significantly better place and it will have a really positive impact on engagement. And we know that engagement is a big driver of churn. So churn was down in the quarter and engagement was up. And I think there are opportunities to continue to broaden engagement plus we're doing some really interesting things in the content team on different platforms that are contributing to the overall improvement in the user experience.

是的。我會負責一部分，莉茲也會參與。正如您所說，用戶參與度提升了 6%。互聯健身的參與度同比增長了 4%，應用程式的參與度同比增長了 7%。我們在個人化方面還沒有取得顯著進展。應該說，我們取得了不錯的進展，但我們可以做得更快，做得更好。我對我們目前正在進行的工作以及（聽不清楚）帶來的洞察感到非常興奮。我認為一年後，我們會處於一個更好的位置，這將對用戶參與度產生非常積極的影響。我們知道，用戶參與度是導致用戶流失的重要因素。所以，本季用戶流失率下降了，用戶參與度上升了。我認為我們有機會繼續擴大用戶參與度，而且我們的內容團隊正在不同平台上進行一些非常有趣的工作，這些工作有助於提升整體用戶體驗。

I'm thinking by way of example, in entertainment with YouTube video and the NBA league pass. Just by way of example, and we've seen a very substantial increase in engagement in that content amongst Tread users by way of example. So -- we've come a long way, but we're going to come a lot further faster in the foreseeable future. And certainly, AI will play an important role here.

舉個例子，例如YouTube影片和NBA聯盟通行證，就體現了這一點。我們已經看到，Tread用戶對這些內容的參與度顯著提高。所以，我們已經取得了長足的進步，但在可預見的未來，我們將以更快的速度取得更大的成就。當然，人工智慧將在其中發揮重要作用。

Yes. A few things to add about our outperformance in Q2. So some of the areas that really worked well for us were our bike rental at FaaS, the third party and our refurbished inventory sales or bike sales. Those all outperformed our internal expectations in the quarter, which is great. And our bike rental also benefited from the fact that we've had -- we had lower churn, so that helped with subscribers. And also, we launched self-service buyouts on our platform, which was a really great win because we saw 11% of our rental members buyout in the quarter, which also contributed to some of the outperformance.

是的。關於我們第二季度的出色表現，還有幾點需要補充。我們表現突出的幾個領域包括FaaS平台的自行車租賃業務、第三方合作以及翻新庫存自行車銷售。這些業務在本季度都超出了我們的內部預期，這非常棒。此外，我們的自行車租賃業務也受益於較低的用戶流失率，這有助於增加訂閱用戶。同時，我們在平台上推出了自助購買功能，這項措施也取得了巨大成功，因為我們在本季度看到了11%的租賃會員選擇購買自行車，這也對業績超預期做出了貢獻。

There are other -- there are some other factors that are impacting our subscriber growth for the quarter. As we mentioned, our hardware demand was a bit lower overall than we forecasted, but we had some offsetting tailwinds that benefited us. First, our supply chain team did a great job and outperformed in terms of delivery efficiency. That means we had a bit of a pull forward in our deliveries into Q2 that we had expected to have in Q3.

還有其他一些因素影響了我們本季的用戶成長。正如我們之前提到的，我們的硬體需求總體上略低於預期，但我們也有一些有利因素抵消了這一影響。首先，我們的供應鏈團隊表現出色，交付效率遠超預期。這意味著我們原本預計在第三季完成的部分交付提前到了第二季。

We also had faster subscription activations in the quarter than we expected. Sometimes over the holidays, people lag a bit with activating their subscriptions. And we saw that was faster than we expected too, so that helped with subscribers. And then another benefit that we had is we had lower new subscription pauses in the quarter and higher-than-expected reactivations from a pause state than we expected. So that helped overall retention and is one of the drivers of our better-than-expected Q2 churn results.

本季我們的訂閱啟用速度也超出了預期。通常情況下，假日期間用戶啟動訂閱的速度會稍有延遲。而我們發現，本季的啟動速度也比預期更快，這有助於提升訂閱用戶數量。此外，本季新用戶暫停訂閱的數量有所下降，而暫停訂閱的重新啟用率則高於預期，這也是我們第二季用戶流失率優於預期的主要原因之一。

Another thing that is also really important to understand about our performance in the quarter is the secondary market. That continues to outperform our expectations and was a key contributor to subscriber growth in the quarter.

了解本季業績的另一個重要方面是二級市場。二級市場持續超出預期，是本季用戶成長的關鍵貢獻者。

One moment for our next question and that will come from the line of Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由 JMP Securities 的 Andrew Boone 提出。

I wanted to ask about the increase in media spend that you guys called out in the letter. As we get further away from the relaunch of the digital app, how should we think about marketing, especially as you just mentioned, the pullback in overall demand for hardware. And then, Liz, is there anything you can call out in terms of Connected business gross margins going forward, that stepped up in the quarter. How do we think about that for the back half of the year and then going forward?

我想問一下你們在信中提到的媒體支出增加的問題。隨著數位應用重新上線日期的臨近，我們應該如何看待行銷，尤其是像你們剛才提到的，硬體整體需求有所回落。另外，Liz，關於互聯業務的毛利率，本季有所成長，你有什麼建議嗎？我們該如何看待下半年以及未來的發展？

So to the first question, it sounds like it was about increase in media spend that we saw in Q2. So we always generally or typically see an increase in our media spending in Q2 because it is our holiday quarter and use that as a way to drive leads and demand for our hardware products and our app on all of our products. In the back half of the year, we do expect to spend less in media just seasonally. So we do expect lower quarterly media spending going forward.

第一個問題，聽起來像是關於我們在第二季媒體支出增加的情況。通常情況下，我們在第二季度都會增加媒體支出，因為這是我們的假期季，我們會利用這個機會來推動銷售線索，並提升我們硬體產品和所有產品配套應用程式的需求。下半年，我們預期媒體支出會因季節性因素而減少。因此，我們預計未來幾季的媒體支出都會下降。

Now remember, another thing to understand about our business, I would really come back to this on these calls is to talk about LTV to CAC. And so we're trying to optimize for that for the business. And so when we look at our media spending, we are trying to make sure that our media spending is efficient and drives an efficient LTV to CAC, definitely over one. Ideally, we want to be in the 2x to 3x range. We were not there for Q2, but we were above 1, and our goal is to move towards more increasing media efficiency.

請記住，關於我們業務，還有一點需要理解，我會在電話會議上反覆強調，那就是客戶終身價值 (LTV) 與客戶獲取成本 (CAC) 的比值。我們正在努力優化這一比值，以提升業務效益。因此，在審視我們的媒體支出時，我們力求確保媒體支出高效，並實現高效的 LTV/CAC 比值，理想情況下，我們希望達到 2 到 3 倍。第二季我們未能達到這個目標，但已經高於 1，我們的目標是進一步提高媒體支出效率。

Now on the Connected Fitness gross margins, we do expect -- we don't guide specifically to Connected Fitness gross margin, but we do expect some improvement in the back half of the year, in part because our Tread+ deliveries which actually just started will benefit gross margin in the back half. That will be -- we do see a little bit of pressure from areas like bike rental as that continues to take share, that will put a little bit of pressure on our Connected Fitness gross margin, but we do expect sequential quarterly improvement.

關於互聯健身業務的毛利率，我們預期－雖然我們不專門針對互聯健身業務的毛利率做出指引－但下半年毛利率會有所改善，部分原因是我們的Tread+產品配送服務（該服務目前剛啟動）將在下半年提振毛利率。我們確實看到，隨著自行車租賃等領域市場份額的持續增長，互聯健身業務的毛利率會面臨一些壓力，但我們預計每個季度都會有所改善。

Now it is important to note, though, with gross margin coming back to the LTV to CAC feet. Gross margin and promotional activity, obviously, that affects gross margin. And so we're optimizing for LTV to CAC. And if we see the opportunity is better to reduce our LTV by reducing our gross margin and optimizing our media spend accordingly, we'll make that trade-off and evaluate it as we go.

不過，要注意的是，毛利率最終取決於客戶終身價值與客戶獲取成本比率（LTV/CAC）。毛利率和促銷活動顯然都會影響毛利率。因此，我們的目標是優化LTV/CAC。如果我們發現透過降低毛利率並相應地優化媒體支出來降低LTV更有利，我們會權衡利弊並根據實際情況進行評估。

I wouldn't say at a high level, I'm pretty optimistic about our ability to try to bring more efficiency out of the marketing spend, and we're making some structural changes in the way that we run the business that will help contribute to increased operating leverage. And I'm being -- I realize I'm being vague, but I'm being intentionally vague, but it's among the reasons why I have some optimism about that go-forward performance.

我不會說總體上已經取得了成功，但我對我們提高行銷支出效率的能力相當樂觀，我們正在對業務運作方式進行一些結構性調整，這將有助於提高營運槓桿。我知道我的說法比較含糊，但我故意含糊其辭，但這正是我對未來業績抱持樂觀態度的原因之一。

Thank you. One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Evercore ISI.

謝謝。稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由 Evercore ISI 的 Shweta Khajuria 提出。

I have two, please. One, Liz, could you please talk about the free cash flow. So your guidance now calls for lower expectations than what you talked about last quarter, you expect to be positive free cash flow in the fourth quarter and not for the full year. So help us think about why the change and what drove that?

我有兩個問題。第一，莉茲，你能談談自由現金流嗎？你現在的業績預期比上個季度要低，預計第四季而非全年實現正自由現金流。請你解釋為什麼會有這樣的變化，以及是什麼因素促成了這個改變？

And then the second question is on how to think about the impact from TikTok and Lululemon is $10 million a quarter that you quantified last time. Did it come in better than expected? How should we think about it going forward? And then the impact of TikTok on P&L, please?

第二個問題是關於如何看待TikTok和Lululemon帶來的影響，您上次量化了每季1000萬美元的收益。實際收益是否超出預期？我們該如何看待未來的發展？另外，請問TikTok對公司損益表的影響是什麼？

Sure. So let's start with the free cash flow question. Why is our free cash flow outlook lower than we had previously expected. So -- for Q2, while our paid subscriptions for Connected Fitness outperformed our expectations, our hardware sales, as I mentioned earlier, were a bit softer than we expected. So we're projecting that softness as it from a trend perspective to continue into Q3 and Q4, and that creates a bit of a cash headwind for us. We're also continuing to see that mix shift into bike rental or FaaS and that puts pressure on our cash because, again, we don't collect all of that hardware revenue upfront.

當然。那我們先從自由現金流的問題說起。為什麼我們的自由現金流預期會低於先前的預期呢？第二季度，雖然我們的互聯健身付費訂閱收入超出預期，但正如我之前提到的，硬體銷售略低於預期。因此，從趨勢上看，我們預計這種疲軟態勢將延續到第三季和第四季度，這將給我們帶來一定的現金流壓力。此外，我們也看到業務結構持續向自行車租賃或健身即服務（FaaS）模式轉變，這也給我們的現金流帶來了壓力，因為我們無法預先收取所有硬體收入。

And then if you put that together, it means we have a bit of a cash headwind from inventory compared to our prior forecast. And that's mainly coming from our bikes. We also had a few payment timing benefits that pushed from Q2 into Q3 that helped Q2 cash flow, but will impact us a bit in Q3. Now the other question was about TikTok and Lululemon. I can probably take the Lulu piece, Barry, I don't know if you want to talk about...

綜合以上因素，這意味著與先前的預測相比，我們的庫存現金流量面臨一些阻力。這主要來自我們的自行車業務。此外，一些款項的支付時間從第二季度推遲到了第三季度，這有助於改善第二季度的現金流，但會對第三季度產生一定影響。另一個問題是關於TikTok和Lululemon的。關於Lululemon的部分，Barry，我大概可以回答，但我不知道你是否想談談…

Sure (inaudible) $10 million, and I think one in confirmation.

當然（聽不清楚）1000萬美元，而且我認為還有一筆確認。

Oh, yes. So yes, our lululemon partnership, at least we're talking about the Studio -- the studio all access members that have the -- what was firmly known as the Mirror hardware product. That performed as expected, actually a slightly a bit better than we expected. So that is on track. And then TikTok -- that is really a marketing relationship with TikTok that we -- it's early days. We don't have a lot of explicit assumptions around how that is going to provide upside to our financials going forward in Q3 and Q4.

哦，是的。是的，我們與lululemon的合作，至少我們指的是Studio專案——也就是那些擁有先前被稱為Mirror硬體產品的Studio全權會員專案。該項目的表現符合預期，實際上比我們預期的還要略好。所以一切進展順利。至於TikTok——我們與TikTok的合作目前還處於早期階段，我們還沒有太多關於它將如何在第三季和第四季為我們的財務表現帶來成長的明確假設。

Yes. We're in the third week of the TikTok deal, and we've seen a very substantial increase in the number of pieces of content in those 3 weeks. Week 3 compared to week 1, I think it was about a 50% increase, and we've seen a 3x increase in total views, but it's much too early to know where that's going to land. We're excited, our first live class had over 130,000 BUs, which is a pretty good start, but I'm sure we can do much better than that.

是的。我們與TikTok的合作已經進入第三週，這三週以來，內容數量已經有了顯著增長。第三週與第一週相比，我認為成長了約50%，總觀看量更是成長了三倍，但現在預測最終結果還為時過早。我們很興奮，我們的第一堂直播課的觀看量超過了13萬，這是一個相當不錯的開端，但我相信我們還能做得更好。

The important thing to note is we're reaching a demo that's much younger and TikTok is proving to be an enormously effective platform to help us do that. So we want to lean into that. I think that if we do it well, it has implications for growth and app. But it's way too early to have any meaningful insights yet. The other thing I'd say is, for those of you who saw the headline yesterday that TikTok squared off with universal over music rights, but I want that doesn't implicate our marketing agreement, our content on TikTok is fully licensed with the labels.

需要注意的是，我們的用戶群更加年輕化，而TikTok已被證明是一個非常有效的平台，可以幫助我們實現這一目標。因此，我們希望充分利用這一點。我認為，如果我們做得好，這將對成長和應用程式本身產生積極影響。但現在就得出任何有意義的結論還為時過早。另外，我想說的是，昨天有新聞報道稱TikTok與環球音樂就音樂版權問題發生爭執，但我想強調的是，這並不影響我們的營銷協議，我們在TikTok上的內容已獲得唱片公司的全面授權。

There is one thing I wanted to comment on with regard to the $10 million from lululemon for the studio all Access members. That was just reflective of November and December. So that was just 2 months in Q2, and it will be an obviously a full quarter in Q3 and beyond.

關於lululemon向其工作室所有會員提供的1000萬美元，我想補充一點。這筆款項僅反映了11月和12月的情況，也就是第二季的兩個月，而第三季及以後顯然會涵蓋整個季度。

Coming back to the cash flow thing here is what I would say. Let's remind ourselves what the 2 objectives for the business, one is stop the bleeding. The other is grow the business. I'd hope that we would generate more cash flow in the second half of the year than we currently think we're going to. But the important thing is we still think we will cross the finish line and get cash flow positive in Q4. And if you look at our balance sheet, that the business is not going away, which for a long time was a systemic threat. So because of that, we're able to focus on renewed growth.

回到現金流的問題上，我想說的是，我們先回顧公司的兩大目標：一是停損，二是發展。我希望下半年的現金流能比我們目前的預期更高。但重要的是，我們仍然相信能夠最終實現目標，在第四季度實現正現金流。而且，如果你看一下我們的資產負債表，你會發現公司並沒有倒閉，這在很長一段時間裡都是系統性威脅。正因如此，我們才能專注於重振成長。

Now what have we accomplished in the last 2 years to assist with that. Well, there's been very little product innovation. We reintroduced an existing product, Tread+, and we launched the Rower, which mostly we sell to existing subscribers and a little bit to new members. So not much on the product side, a lot of innovation with respect to the business model, different go-to-market strategies, 3P and FaaS (inaudible) were the examples. I think what you're going to see in the next 2 years is a significant product innovation and which I'm very excited about because I think we have a real shot at changing in a meaningful way at the growth trajectory of the business.

那麼，過去兩年我們又取得了哪些成就來助力實現這個目標呢？嗯，產品創新方面著墨不多。我們重新推出了現有產品 Tread+，也推出了划船機，這款產品主要針對現有用戶銷售，少量面向新用戶。所以產品方面並沒有太多創新，創新主要集中在商業模式上，例如不同的市場推廣策略，以及第三方服務和功能即服務（FaaS）模式（聽不清楚）。我認為未來兩年​​我們將迎來重大的產品創新，對此我感到非常興奮，因為我認為我們有機會真正改變公司的成長軌跡。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Aneesha Sherman with Bernstein.

稍等片刻，我們進入下一個問題。這個問題將由阿妮莎·謝爾曼和伯恩斯坦提出。

Barry, you've talked about the seasonality of the business with more growth clustered in the winter months. Can you square that with your view of flat growth in Q3, which is a winter quarter, especially in the light of all the successful initiatives you've highlighted in your letter? And then on the other side of this, you're lapping a weak Q4 this year, and you expect positive growth. Are you comfortable with having fully lapped the seasonality effect at that point. So from Q4 onward, you're basically like-for-like on seasonality?

巴里，你之前提到業務的季節性，冬季月成長更為集中。你能否解釋一下你對第三季（冬季）成長持平的看法，尤其是在你信中重點提及了所有成功的舉措之後？另一方面，今年第四季業績疲軟，但你預計會實現正成長。你是否認為屆時季節性影響已完全消除？也就是說，從第四季開始，你們的業務基本上不受季節性影響？

Well, our view on -- maybe we've communicated poorly, but our D1 seasonality hasn't changed, actually. It is Q2, the holiday season, which drives 40-plus percent of the annual volume. And and there's not much seasonality in the rest of the year, slows in the summer months a little bit. But -- that would be the only other qualifier I would mention.

嗯，關於這一點，或許我們溝通得不太清楚，但我們第一季的季節性規律其實並沒有改變。現在是第二季度，也就是假期季節，它貢獻了全年40%以上的銷售量。一年中的其他時間季節性並不明顯，夏季幾個月銷量會略有下降。不過，這是我唯一想補充說明的地方。

And I also think it depends on what you're looking at. If you're looking at subscribers, we do expect to grow subscribers in Q3. So both on the Connected Fitness side as well as the app side.

而且我認為這還取決於你關注的方面。如果你關注的是訂閱用戶數量，我們預期第三季訂閱用戶數量會成長。無論是在互聯健身方面還是在應用程式方面，都是如此。

Now we did deal with the seat post recall beginning in May of last year, and that certainly caused a lot of softness for the B1 bike. But we've been living with that softness for B1 bike ever since. So it's not like consumers suddenly rediscovered a love for that product in the aftermath. We see significantly different trajectory for unit growth for Bike+ by the way, but.

去年五月我們處理了座桿召回事件，這無疑對B1自行車的銷售量造成了很大影響。但自那以後，B1自行車的銷售量一直受到這種影響。所以，消費者並沒有在事件發生後突然重新愛上這款產品。順便一提，我們預期Bike+的銷售成長軌跡將會截然不同。

And also our treadmill products, we're seeing growth there.

我們的跑步機產品也呈現成長趨勢。

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that wasn't the case. I just meant to say that if you're expecting sort of resurgence in demand post the seat post recall for B1 bike that really hasn't -- that hasn't happened.

抱歉，我並非暗示情況並非如此。我只是想說，如果你期待B1自行車座桿召回事件後需求會回升，那實際上並沒有——這種情況並沒有發生。

And if I can ask a quick follow-up. Do you believe at this point, you're kind of huge inflection in growth your 2020, 2021 cohorts. Have those COVID users now sort of normalized in terms of churn and your churn level is now back to normal across cohorts, including the COVID cohort?

我可以再問一個後續問題嗎？您是否認為目前貴公司2020年和2021年的用戶群正處於成長的重大轉折點？那些受新冠疫情影響的用戶流失率現在是否已經恢復正常，包括新冠疫情用戶群在內的所有用戶群的流失率是否都已恢復正常？

Yes. I would assume that's the case. Yes.

是的，我猜就是這樣。是的。

I think there was a short thesis that maybe they came in with COVID and they're all going to fly out the door afterwards, and that just -- that's just flat wrong.

我認為有一個簡短的論點，認為他們可能帶著新冠病毒進來，之後都會迅速離開，但這完全是錯誤的。

If you look at our churn profile, our churn rates and you look at them on a cohorted basis, like at a 12-month churn rate by cohort, it's not coming down substantially in any way. The only factor that are influence just to add one more comment, the only factors that do influence our churn are the mix into the bike rental, which we have talked about in prior quarters, where our bike rental subscriptions do have a higher churn rate than our regular All Access Members, although we are working to bring that down, and it did improve quarter-over-quarter in Q2, which is great.

如果你查看我們的客戶流失情況，特別是按用戶群劃分的流失率（例如，按用戶群計算的12個月流失率），你會發現流失率並沒有顯著下降。唯一影響流失率的因素是自行車租賃業務的組成，我們在之前的幾季也討論過這個問題。自行車租賃訂閱用戶的流失率確實高於普通全權會員，儘管我們正在努力降低這一比例，而且第二季度環比有所改善，這令人欣喜。

And then also, I think we've talked about in prior calls, the secondary market, which is the people who buy a bike not through us, but through someone else like from a marketplace of Sunport that those do have a slightly higher churn than people who buy directly from us. And so as that increases, that will put some pressure on our churn as well. But our underlying churn for our All Access Members that come through is pretty stable.

此外，我想我們在之前的電話會議中也討論過，二級市場，也就是那些不透過我們，而是透過其他管道（例如Sunport的電商平台）購買自行車的人，他們的流失率確實比直接從我們這裡購買的人略高。因此，隨著二級市場的成長，也會對我們自身的流失率帶來一些壓力。但我們所有會員的流失率總體上還是相當穩定的。

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Edward Yruma with Piper Sandler.

謝謝。稍等片刻，我們進入下一個問題。下一個問題將來自愛德華·尤魯瑪和派珀·桑德勒的對話。

Two quick ones from me. I guess, first, Barry, a bigger picture question. You've been at this for some time and certainly had some success in turning the business around. But I guess as you step back and think about Connected Fitness and growing it. It seems like you had most success we're able to lower the cost of ownership. So I'm trying to understand it, it is further growth predicated on continuing to drive down cost of ownership to things like rental? Or is it still a marketing issue. And then as a follow-up, just so I'm clear on the pop sale, was that aligned with the impairments you've taken? And are there further impairments that are necessary when you close that?

我有兩個問題想問。首先，Barry，我想問一個更宏觀的問題。你在這個行業已經耕耘多年，也確實在扭轉公司頹勢方面取得了一些成功。但我想，當你回顧Connected Fitness的發展歷程時，你會發現你最大的成功在於降低了公司擁有成本。所以我想了解的是，未來的成長是否依賴持續降低擁有成本，例如透過租賃等方式？還是說，這仍然是行銷策略的問題？另外，為了確保我理解清楚，關於先前的出售，這筆交易是否與你提列的減損準備相符？交易完成後是否還需要提列其他減損準備？

Let me acknowledge that you're quite right that the go-to-market innovations that have resulted in lower cost of entry like FaaS, like refurb have been enormously successful. I mean FaaS is now a $100 million run rate business from 0 and we grew not quite 300% year-over-year in the quarter. And we see very fast growth in the secondary market north of 40%. So value matters.

我承認您說得完全正確，像FaaS（設備即服務）和翻新這樣的市場創新降低了准入門檻，取得了巨大的成功。我的意思是，FaaS現在已經從零發展到年收入1億美元的業務，而且我們本季的年成長率接近300%。我們也看到二手市場成長迅速，超過40%。所以，價值至關重要。

Now lots of ways to deliver value. And one of the ways to do it, which we had great success with at Spotify and Netflix was by investing in the product and the user experience. And I think there's a tremendous opportunity for us going forward to lean into the performance aspect of the market with premium priced products in order to drive new growth for us, meaningful growth. And I think an existence proof that there's an appetite amongst consumers for that kind of positioning is the Tread+ by way of example.

現在有很多方法可以創造價值。其中一個方法，也是我們在Spotify和Netflix取得巨大成功的方法，就是投資產品和使用者體驗。我認為，未來我們有機會透過推出高端產品，在市場中專注於性能方面，從而推動新的、有意義的成長。 Tread+就是一個很好的例子，它證明了消費者對這種定位的需求。

So if you give people something they want, they'd be delighted to pay for it, but it has to be a uniquely compelling user experience. And which is why we're leaning heavily into investing in product innovation. And now we have to have the right talent in the building to pursue that. We had some pretty interesting talent walk into the building last quarter. And I'm pretty optimistic based on what's being discussed in the building today.

所以，如果你能提供人們想要的東西，他們會很樂意付費，但這必須是一種獨特的用戶體驗。正因如此，我們才大力投資產品創新。現在，我們需要合適的人才來推動這項工作。上個季度，我們招募了一些非常優秀的人才。根據今天公司內部的討論，我對未來充滿信心。

And then just really quickly on that question about POP and impairments. In Q2, we did book an impairment charge of roughly about $2 million to bring our -- the value of POP in line with what we sold it for, and that gets closed in early Q3.

關於POP和減損的問題，我只想簡單回答一下。第二季度，我們提列了大約200萬美元的減損費用，以使POP的價值與我們的出售價格保持一致，這筆費用將在第三季初結算。

Thank you One moment for our next question. That will come from the line of Youssef Squali with Truist Securities.

謝謝。請稍等片刻，我們下一個問題將由 Truist Securities 的 Youssef Squali 提出。

So a couple of questions. Maybe starting with bike rental, that's one of the positive developments that you had in the business. Can you maybe just remind us about maybe the size of it today, but more importantly, kind of the unit economics. I think in the letter, you mentioned attractive economics. How have they kind of performed over time. Where are we now relative to maybe the rest of the business? And then on Q4 guide, Q4 is typically one of the weaker quarters that you're guiding for inflection point to growth there. Can you maybe just help us with the puts and takes as to what needs to happen for you guys to hit that milestone?

我有幾個問題。先說說自行車租賃業務吧，這是你們公司取得的正面進展之一。您能否簡單介紹一下目前的規模，更重要的是，單位經濟效益如何？我記得您在信中提到過，這項業務的經濟效益很有吸引力。它的表現如何？相對於公司其他業務，我們目前的狀況如何？另外，關於第四季的業績預期，第四季通常是業績較為疲軟的季度之一，也是你們預測成長的關鍵轉折點。您能否就如何實現這個目標，談談你們的預期？

I'm going to let ask Liz to take most of that, but I just want to make one observation about FaaS linking back to a previous question. We had about seasonality. So the one thing we learned last year about FaaS and saw again this year, FaaS it's not very seasonal. The demand seems to be pretty consistent across the calendar year. Now we did see accelerated growth in FaaS this quarter, but that's because of some work we've done on landing pages and the way we're merchandising it to members to make it more easily discoverable and put it on level footing with a sale rather than bearing it down in the footnotes where it had previously lived and allowing it to service on Google Search by way of example, rather than bearing it. Liz, do you want to talk about the Q4?

我打算讓莉茲來回答大部分問題，但我只想就FaaS（功能即服務）補充一點，這與之前我們討論過的季節性問題有關。去年我們從FaaS中了解到，今年也再次發現，FaaS的季節性並不強。全年的需求似乎都相當穩定。當然，我們本季確實看到了FaaS的加速成長，但這主要是因為我們改進了落地頁，並調整了向會員推廣FaaS的方式，使其更容易被發現，並使其與銷售產品處於同等重要的地位，而不是像以前那樣被放在不起眼的位置。例如，我們現在讓它在谷歌搜尋中獲得排名，而不是被邊緣化。莉茲，你想談談第四季的情況嗎？

Yes. So let me first -- let me talk -- I do want to provide a little bit of information about FaaS around the unit economics. So our unit economics for FaaS are improving. Our churn was better than it was in Q1. It's -- as I mentioned, it's still higher than it is for those who buy our bikes out right. And we're continuing to work on closing the gap between that rental churn and purchase churn. But it did improve quarter-over-quarter. It was slightly under 5%, and we've talked about it being around 5%.

是的。首先，我想先談談FaaS（自行車即服務）的單位經濟效益。我們的FaaS單位經濟效益正在改善。客戶流失率比第一季下降。正如我剛才提到的，它仍然高於直接購買我們自行車的客戶流失率。我們正在持續努力縮小租賃客戶流失率和購買客戶流失率之間的差距。但與上一季相比，我們的流失率確實有所改善。略低於5%，我們之前也討論過將流失率控制在5%左右。

100 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

季減100個基點。

Yes, 100 basis points of improvement quarter-over-quarter versus Q1. With that -- part of that -- as a result of that, we have -- our average payback is now averaging around 16 months for FaaS, which is also an improvement over Q1. But one thing to note about FaaS is that we are still using pretty rich mix of refurbished units. And as we lower our churn going forward and continue to make improvements there and also continue to provide the right incentive structure for folks to buy out their rentals, we expect to be able to shift to a richer mix of new bikes at some point in the future as we continue to sell down, sell through that refurbished inventory while achieving an attractive payback results.

是的，與第一季相比，本季季增了100個基點。正因如此，我們目前FaaS的平均投資回收期約為16個月，也比第一季有所改善。但要注意的是，FaaS目前仍大量使用翻新車。隨著我們不斷降低用戶流失率，持續改進相關流程，並繼續提供合適的激勵機制鼓勵用戶買斷租賃車輛，我們預計未來某個時候能夠轉向使用更多新車，同時繼續減少翻新庫存，並實現可觀的投資回報。

So that's all good news. Now there was a question about the Q4 inflection, and I think that, that is really looking at revenue growth. Q4 is -- from a subscriber perspective, our guidance is that we'll end the year for Connected Fitness subs just slightly -- if you look at our implied guidance has as ending just slightly above where we started the year. So it is a seasonally tough quarter for growth. And part of the revenue growth that you see in Q4 is driven by the fact that we will be continuing to deliver Tread+ and so again, our Tread+ mix to date so far, maybe that -- hopefully that will shift over time, skews a lot towards existing subscribers rather than new ones.

所以這些都是好消息。現在有人問到第四季的拐點，我認為這主要取決於營收成長。從用戶數量來看，我們預計第四季度互聯健身訂閱用戶數量將略高於年初。因此，第四季通常是成長較為艱難的時期。第四季營收成長的部分原因是我們將繼續提供Tread+服務，因此，到目前為止，我們的Tread+用戶組成——希望隨著時間的推移能夠有所改變——主要來自現有用戶而非新用戶。

And again, that makes sense because we just relaunched it. And so that will help bolster revenue in Q4 on a year-over-year basis.

這也很合理，因為我們剛剛重新推出了這項服務。因此，這將有助於提升第四季的營收，實現年成長。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

稍等片刻，我們進入下一個問題。這個問題將由BMO資本市場的西蒙·西格爾提出。

So congrats on the strength of third-party retailers, can you remind us what the unit level revenue and margins look like for a bike sold or any equipment sold via third-party retailer versus when you sell it directly. And then you called out -- and I think you've spoken a few times currently about the continued growth in the secondary market sales. Can you just let us know roughly what percent of the current CF subscriptions are on their second like or so?

恭喜您肯定第三方零售商的強勁表現！能否請您簡單說明一下，透過第三方零售商銷售的自行車或其他裝備，與直接銷售相比，單位層面的收入和利潤率分別是多少？另外，您之前也多次提到二手市場銷售的持續成長。能否請您告知一下，目前CF訂閱用戶中，大約有多少比例已經續訂了兩次或兩次以上？

So the first question sounded like it was related to unit economics for third party. So our -- from a gross margin perspective, the unit economics for selling through a third-party channel like a Dick's Sporting Goods or an Amazon are lower because, obviously, there is that margin that we have to give to the wholesaler to that third-party retailer. Where we sort of make up the difference on that is in our market -- our sales and marketing spend. So we expect our customer acquisition costs through those channels to be substantially lower, and that's what we optimize for as well as driving as much of that those units have incremental units through those channels as we possibly can. And so that's the key difference.

第一個問題聽起來像是關於第三方通路的單位經濟效益。從毛利率的角度來看，透過像迪克體育用品或亞馬遜這樣的第三方通路銷售的單位經濟效益較低，因為顯然我們需要支付給批發商和第三方零售商一定的利潤。而我們彌補這部分差額的方式，是透過我們的市場——銷售和行銷支出。因此，我們預期透過這些管道獲取客戶的成本會大幅降低，這也是我們優化的目標，同時我們也會盡可能地透過這些管道增加銷售量。這就是關鍵區別所在。

So you see the gross margin pressure from third-party and it should be offset, and that's how we model and that's how we run those channels with more efficient sales and marketing spending. Now the other question was what percentage of our Connected Fitness subs are coming from the secondary market, I think. It's increasing quarter-over-quarter. In Q2, it was actually slightly down as a percentage of our total gross additions versus Q1, just under 30% coming from that channel.

所以您可以看到第三方通路帶來的毛利率壓力，而這種壓力需要被抵銷。這就是我們建立模型的方式，也是我們透過更有效率的銷售和行銷支出來經營這些管道的方式。另一個問題是，我們互聯健身訂閱用戶中有多少比例來自二級市場。我認為，這個比例正在逐季成長。第二季度，來自該管道的用戶占我們新增總用戶數的比例實際上略低於第一季度，略低於30%。

Let me come back to 3P for a minute and let's talk about FaaS in the same context -- the rental program in the same context. It only makes sense to give up margin if the customers you're acquiring are -- if a large percentage is incremental. And it's relatively easy to do the math to figure out what the crossover point is where you're economically advantaged by making the lower margin trade-off.

讓我們回到第三方定價（3P）的話題，並在同一背景下討論一下FaaS——也就是租賃服務。只有當你獲取的客戶有很大一部分是新增客戶時，放棄部分利潤才有意義。而且，計算利潤率下降所帶來的經濟效益的臨界點也相對容易。

Now in Q4, we had explosive growth with the 3P partners. And it cost us an incrementality. And so it was a really important lesson. And once we were into the quarter, there was no way to undo the sales of inventory that to our third 3P partners that were competing with us during the holiday season. So what we learned is there are periods that are sort of uniquely special. We're just those partners individually, Prime Day by way of example are on promotion, and we can move a lot of units. And there are other times of the year when you could come to us, you could go to them. Consumer might be indifferent, but we're not. And we need to be more thoughtful about our sell-through to those partners during those periods of time.

第四季度，我們與第三方合作夥伴的合作實現了爆炸性成長，但也因此造成了增量損失。這給我們上了一堂非常重要的課。一旦進入季度，我們就無法挽回在假期季節賣給與我們競爭的第三方合作夥伴的庫存。因此，我們意識到，有些時期是獨一無二的。例如，在亞馬遜會員日（Prime Day）期間，我們和這些合作夥伴都在進行促銷活動，我們可以賣出很多商品。但在一年中的其他時候，消費者可能並不在意，但我們很在意。因此，在這些時期，我們需要更加謹慎地考慮與這些合作夥伴的銷售策略。

I think we talked about the incrementality on FaaS, it's north of 60% in the more like 63%, 62% pretty consistently since we started. So even though economics as compared with at least the cash flow aspects of it or less attractive than the sell-through. We're absolutely able to attract a significant audience that we wouldn't otherwise be attracting.

我認為我們之前討論過FaaS的增量，它一直穩定在60%以上，更準確地說是63%或62%，從我們開始營運以來就一直如此。所以，即使從經濟效益來看，至少在現金流方面，FaaS不如銷售模式那麼吸引人，但我們仍然能夠吸引到一大批原本無法觸及的用戶群。

One moment for our next question. And that will come from the line of John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

稍等片刻，我們進入下一個問題。這個問題將由約翰·布萊克利奇和TD·考恩提出。

That's great. just on Tread+, Liz kind of just addressed it. My question is, is demand more so from existing members? Or is it a mix of existing and new members. I think she said more so from existing members now. But I guess as we get through the second half and into next year, would you see -- would you expect to see more demand from new members given the market is 2x bigger than the bike market. And then my second question on paid apps. The high end, it looks like the high end of paid app subs is down a little bit. Just how should we think about trajectory of paid app subs kind of into the back half and kind of into fiscal '25 and beyond.

太好了。 Liz剛才在Tread+上也提到了這一點。我的問題是，需求主要來自現有會員嗎？還是新舊會員都有？我記得她說目前主要來自現有會員。但我想，隨著我們進入下半年以及明年，考慮到這個市場比自行車市場大兩倍，您是否預期新會員的需求會增加？我的第二個問題是關於付費應用的。高端付費應用程式的訂閱量似乎略有下降。我們該如何看待付費應用程式訂閱量在下半年以及2025財年及以後的發展趨勢？

I think we'll probably comment here, John. Thanks for the question. I think you're absolutely right that we -- it's reasonable to expect that we would see a shift in the mix from existing members to new members because, of course, today, really the only members who know what the Tread+ represents are the existing members.

約翰，我想我們可能會在這裡留言。謝謝你的提問。我認為你說得完全正確，我們－有理由預期會看到成員組成從現有成員向新成員轉變，因為，當然，目前真正了解Tread+代表什麼的只有現有成員。

We also -- our Tread+ is actually just reviewed as the best overall Tread in 2024 by CNN, which is -- which should also help grow the awareness of the product.

此外，我們的 Tread+ 也被 CNN 評為 2024 年最佳跑步機，這也有助於提高該產品的知名度。

And with respect to the app, I think in the past, we've referred to it as the best product we have that nobody knows about. The unaided brand awareness, which was down 1% is the unaided brand awareness is 6%.

至於這款應用，我認為過去我們曾稱它為我們最好的產品，但卻鮮為人知。其自然品牌認知度從下降1%回升至6%。

There was a question about the range. So I can take that part. So...

有人問到了射程的問題。這部分我可以回答。所以…

Sorry, hang on a second. Yes. I just wanted to talk about sort of the momentum and where we are in the learning curve and because I think it important to us about our go-forward view. So at a very high level, I think if your question is, okay, so we restructured our app pricing model. Is the business better off for having done it? And the answer is that today, not yet. But we think the crossover point happens in June, and we're pretty optimistic about the trend line we're on now. We footfaulted early when we focus primarily on free. We struggled with that for several months and then we pivoted to focusing on the paid piece. And ever since we focused on the paid piece, we have seen significant progress.

抱歉，稍等一下。是的。我只是想談談目前的動力以及我們學習曲線的階段，因為我認為這對我們未來的發展方向至關重要。所以，簡單來說，如果你的問題是：我們重組了應用定價模式，這對業務是否有利？答案是，目前還沒有。但我們認為轉捩點會在六月出現，而且我們對目前的趨勢線相當樂觀。我們早期犯了一個錯誤，那就是主要關注免費部分。我們為此掙扎了幾個月，然後才轉向專注於付費部分。自從我們專注於付費部分以來，我們看到了顯著的進展。

And we continue to make important steps in improving the overall user experience. And by the way, this is where the work we're doing in personalization. We'll be having its biggest impact and where some of the partnerships we've struck like TikTok, by way of example, will help drive significant growth, I think. Okay. Sorry, Liz, over to you.

我們持續推動提升整體用戶體驗的重要措施。順便一提，我們在個人化方面的工作將在此發揮最大作用，我們達成的一些合作關係，例如與TikTok的合作，我認為將有助於推動顯著成長。好的。抱歉，莉茲，該你了。

And I was just going to point out that if you look at our guidance, what it implies is that Q2 was sort of the low of our paid app subscriber base. That makes sense because we just completed the time frame that our legacy paid out members we're able to receive the app plus level of content for the app 1 price. And we were actually quite in a positive way surprised that on the retention level of those subscribers given the expiration of their legacy period. So we feel like we've sort of bottomed in Q2. And now the question is how quickly can we grow the subbase from there over the next couple of quarters. And as Barry pointed out, there's a lot of great things that we are working on and that those features will continue to roll out over the coming quarters. And so there is some uncertainty on how quickly we'll be able to grow it.

我剛才想指出的是，如果你看一下我們的業績指引，你會發現第二季付費應用程式的用戶數似乎處於低潮。這很合理，因為我們剛結束了老會員以應用1的價格享受應用Plus級別內容的優惠期。考慮到舊會員優惠期的結束，我們對這些用戶的留存率感到非常驚訝。所以我們感覺第二季用戶數已經觸底。現在的問題是，在接下來的幾個季度裡，我們能以多快的速度成長用戶數。正如Barry所指出的，我們正在開發許多很棒的功能，這些功能將在接下來的幾季陸續推出。因此，我們能否以多快的速度實現成長還存在一些不確定性。

And then there's also things like as we talk about our Peloton for business offerings and our corporate wellness space, that's a great opportunity for us. We are -- those deals, they're negotiations, and they do take time. And so there's a lot of uncertainty on when those deals and negotiations will close. And those could be a great accelerant and app subscription growth for us. But there isn't a whole lot contemplated in our guidance in the next couple of quarters for that to happen. So there's a lot of upside potential just reflects the uncertainty of how quickly we will be able to accelerate that over the next couple of quarters.

此外，我們談到以企業為導向的 Peloton 產品和企業健康領域時，也看到了巨大的機會。這些交易需要談判，需要時間。因此，這些交易和談判何時完成存在許多不確定性。這些交易和談判可能會大大加速我們的應用程式訂閱成長。但在未來幾季的業績指引中，我們並沒有過多考慮這些成長。所以，巨大的成長潛力也反映出我們在未來幾季能夠多快實現這些成長的不確定性。

But we're -- as Barry said, we're super optimistic about it. There's lots of great signs, particularly on the lower churn front and the engagement front that suggests that the app could be a great opportunity for us to accelerate growth.

但正如巴里所說，我們對此非常樂觀。有許多正面的跡象，尤其是在用戶流失率降低和用戶參與度提升方面，這表明這款應用程式可能為我們加速成長提供絕佳機會。

And our last question for the day will come from the line of Lee Horowitz with Deutsche Bank.

今天的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的李‧霍洛維茲。

Great. Barry, you talked in the letter about outgrowing the overall connected fitness market. Subs growing sort of marginally year-on-year, which would suggest that the overall market sort of remain depressed at this point. I guess how do you think about sort of what's holding the market back and growing more meaningfully at this point? How do you think about the conditions that maybe allow some of those headwinds to abate and sort of what do you think about the sort of long-term sort of growth rate of this overall market at a steady state?

好的。巴里，你在信中提到，你們的互聯健身市場成長速度超過了整體水準。訂閱用戶數量每年增長幅度不大，這表明目前整體市場仍然低迷。我想請問，你認為目前是什麼因素阻礙了市場更顯著的成長？你認為哪些條件能夠緩解這些不利因素？你又如何看待這個市場在長期穩定成長後的預期成長率？

I don't really know what the long-term growth rate of the market is. It's got to be at least population growth I would think with a couple of accelerants. The more you (inaudible), the more important it is that you invest in your health and the more likely you are to have disposable income available to make that investment for one.

我不太清楚市場的長期成長率是多少。我覺得至少應該跟人口成長率持平，再加上一些加速因素。你（聽不清楚），就越需要投資健康，也越有可能擁有可支配收入來進行這項投資。

Two, no question that product innovation drives growth. And there's a lot of really interesting technology coming into the marketplace to help drive that. In our case, we really only scratched the service and gamification. That's going to be a vector for growth for us. Liz mentioned, corporate wellness that is having a moment in corporate America for sure, where companies are investing at the margin increasingly in fitness, nutrition, mental wellness by way of example. And I think we're well positioned to participate in that.

第二，毫無疑問，產品創新是成長的驅動力。市場上湧現出許多非常有趣的技術，它們將幫助這一成長。就我們而言，我們目前在服務和遊戲化方面還只是略有涉足。這將成為我們未來的成長點。莉茲提到，企業健康在美國企業界正蓬勃發展，企業越來越多地在健身、營養、心理健康等方面投入。我認為我們已做好充分準備，並參與這一趨勢。

And then lastly, it's pretty clear from the introduction of Row and the introduction of Tread+, innovation drives growth. And we've been busy saving ourselves the last 2 years. And now we're positioned to invest in innovation. Again, it's innovation that put us on the map in the first place. There's a lot of talent in the building. It's a matter of getting it organized and focused in a really productive way. I think it is going to be an impactful player there. I think Lauren is going to be quite impactful with respect to our approach to marketing as well, plus there are a bunch of product innovation drives growth, geographic expansion drives growth.

最後，從Row和Tread+的推出可以看出，創新是成長的驅動力。過去兩年我們一直在努力節省成本。現在，我們已經做好投資創新的準備。再次強調，正是創新讓我們在業界嶄露頭角。公司裡人才濟濟，關鍵在於如何有效地組織和引導他們，讓他們發揮更大的作用。我認為創新將會成為公司發展的重要力量。我認為Lauren在我們的行銷策略方面也將發揮重要作用，此外，產品創新和地理擴張也都是成長的驅動因素。

The unaided brand awareness for the product in the U.S. is 55%. And okay, anybody now by way of comparison with the unaided brand awareness is for Starbucks or Coke, the north of 90%. So there's still a lot of untapped potential even in the U.S. and by way of comparison, the unaided brand awareness in the U.K. is 37%. And in Germany, it's in the 20s. And so -- and I don't know what it is for LatAm, but it's got to be significantly lower. And we've got a lot of strength in the (inaudible) community from a content perspective. So product innovation, geographic growth and product relevance in commercial and corporate wellness should all be vectors for to drive an acceleration in sales in the next couple of years.

該產品在美國的品牌認知度為55%。相較之下，星巴克或可口可樂的品牌認知度都超過90%。因此，即使在美國，該產品仍有巨大的未開發潛力。相較之下，英國的品牌認知度為37%，德國則在20%左右。至於拉丁美洲的情況，我不太清楚，但肯定要低得多。我們在內容方面擁有強大的實力。因此，產品創新、地理擴張以及產品在商業和企業健康領域的相關性，都將成為未來幾年推動銷售成長的關鍵因素。

And Mr. Stabler, as that was our final question. I'll turn the call back over to you for any closing remarks.

史塔布勒先生，這是我們最後一個問題。現在我把電話交還給您，請您作總結發言。

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a good day.

感謝各位今天蒞臨。我們期待下個季度與各位再次交流。祝您今天愉快。

Thank you all for participating. This concludes today's program. You may now disconnect.

感謝各位的參與。今天的節目到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。